Best Practice Guidelines For PV Cost Calculation
Best Practice Guidelines For PV Cost Calculation
Best Practice Guidelines For PV Cost Calculation
Calculation
Accounting for Technical Risks and Assumptions in
PV LCOE
Deliverable D3.2
13/12/2016
Foreword
The photovoltaic (PV) sector has overall experienced a significant growth globally in the last decade,
reflecting the recognition of PV as a clean and sustainable source of energy. Project investment has
been and still is a primary financial factor in enabling sustainable growth in PV installations. When
assessing the investment-worthiness of a PV project, different financial stakeholders such as
investors, lenders and insurers will evaluate the impact and probability of investment risks differently
depending on their investment goals. Similarly, risk mitigation measures implemented are subject to
the investment perspective. In the financing process, the stakeholders are to elect the business
model to apply and be faced with the task of taking appropriate assumptions relevant to, among
others, the technical aspects of a PV project for the selected business model.
The Solar Bankability project aims to establish a common practice for professional risk
assessment which will serve to reduce the risks associated with investments in PV projects.
The risks assessment and mitigation guidelines are developed based on market data from historical
due diligences, operation and maintenance records, and damage and claim reports. Different
relevant stakeholders in the PV industries such as financial market actors, valuation and
standardization entities, building and PV plant owners, component manufacturers, energy
prosumers and policy makers are engaged to provide inputs to the project.
The technical risks at the different phases of the project life cycle are compiled and quantified based
on data from existing expert reports and empirical data available at the PV project development and
operational phases. The Solar Bankability consortium performs empirical and statistical analyses of
failures to determine the manageability (detection and control), severity, and the probability of
occurrence. The impact of these failures on PV system performance and energy production are
evaluated. The project then looks at the practices of PV investment financial models and the
corresponding risk assessment at present days. How technical assumptions are accounted in
various PV cost elements (CAPEX, OPEX, yield, and performance ratio) are inventoried. Business
models existing in the market in key countries in the EU region are gathered. Several carefully
selected business cases are then simulated with technical risks and sensitivity analyses are
performed.
The results from the financial approach benchmarking and technical risk quantification are used to
identify the gaps between the present PV investment practices and the available extensive scientific
data in order to establish a link between the two. The outcomes are best practices guidelines on how
to translate important technical risks into different PV investment cost elements and business
models. This will build a solid fundamental understanding among the different stakeholders and
enhance the confidence for a profitable investment.
The Solar Bankability is a project funded by the European Commission under the Horizon 2020
Programme and runs for two years from 2015 to 2017.
The Solar Bankability consortium is pleased to present this report which as one of the public
deliverables from the project work.
Contributors
Matthias v. Armansperg (ACCELIOS Solar GmbH)
Ulrike Jahn (TÜV Rheinland Energy GmbH)
Magnus Herz (TÜV Rheinland Energy GmbH)
Acknowledgments
The Solar Bankability Consortium would like to extend special thanks to the Members of the Project’s
Advisory Board for their input and support: 123 Ventures, Deutsche Bank, Grünstromwerk, HSH-
Nordbank, KGAL, SEL Spa, SMA, Solarcentury, Triodos Bank, WHEB Group.
In particular, we would like to thank Mr. Patrick Willmann (KGAL Investment Management GmbH &
Co. Kg.) and Mr. Neil Perry (Solarcentury Holding Ltd.) for their assistance in validating the numbers
we used in the LCOE sensitivity and scenario analyses.
Project Information
Project Partners: 3E N.V. (BE), ACCELIOS Solar GmbH (DE), SolarPower Europe (BE), and TÜV
Rheinland Energy GmbH (DE)
Disclaimer
The sole responsibility for the content of this publication lies only with the authors. It does not
necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Communities. The European Commission is not
responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.
Table 1: LCOE technical risk categorization based on impact on CAPEX, OPEX and yield in PV financial models ..... 16
Table 2: Input parameters used in the LCOE sensitivity analysis for different scenarios................................................. 19
Table 3: LCOE for different scenarios and market segments without any mitigation ...................................................... 22
Table 4: Cost of mitigation measures for the medium cost scenario as defined in [2] ..................................................... 23
Table 5: Maximum LCOE reduction and LCOE after the application of the best combination of mitigation measures.. 27
IP internet protocol
IR infrared (thermal imaging analysis)
ISO International Organization for Standardization
LD liquidated damages
PV photovoltaic
RMSE root mean square error
RV residual value (used in LCOE formula)
Sensitivity of LCOE in 2015-2016 on CAPEX, OPEX, yield, discount rate, yearly degradation and
system lifetime (ranking from most to least impact)
1 2 3 4 5
Yield CAPEX Lifetime or OPEX Degradation
discount rate
The different combinations of mitigation measures have a larger impact in lowering the
LCOE for scenarios where the higher CAPEX, OPEX, and/or discount rate results in a
higher LCOE.
Mitigation measures which are most effective in lowering PV LCOE are similar across all
three market segments and for all scenarios.
The most effective mitigation measures are those implemented at the early stage of
project lifecycle. Those implemented in the operation phase still show some positive
impact on LCOE but less gain is found.
Although the implementation of mitigation measures increase either CAPEX or OPEX or
both, the overall LCOE decreases as the gain in yield surpasses the extra cost incurred.
Mitigation measures most effective in lowering PV LCOE are:
1. Qualification of EPC;
2. Component testing prior to installation; and
3. Advanced monitoring system for early fault detection.
In Chapter 2, the technical risks are categorized and ranked. We describe here briefly the risk, where
they can occur (i.e. project phase) and what LCOE variable are impacted (i.e. CAPEX, OPEX and
Yield). In addition, we perform a sensitivity analysis to assess the relative impact on LCOE for
different scenarios.
In Chapter 3, we present the best practice guidelines for different market segments i.e. the
commercial rooftop and ground-mounted utility PV systems. The guidelines are presented in a form
of various checklists which could be used in developing, operating and maintaining PV systems.
Finally, Chapter 4 presents the conclusions of the works described in this report with result highlights
and recommendations for potential future works.
The outcomes of the risk categorization and sensitivity analyses are further used to recommend best
practices on how technical risks should be accounted for in the PV investment cost in the next
Chapter 3. These guidelines will serve to assist in the decision on where in the PV project lifecycle
mitigation measures for PV technical risks need to be placed and who the owners are of the
mitigation measures.
LCOE Technical 1. Insufficient EPC technical specifications to ensure Phase of risk occurrence
Risk that selected components are suitable for use in the Procurement Planning
specific PV plant environment of application
O&M Construction
Key takeaway PV plant component specification and requirement in the EPC contract should be as detailed as
possible to ensure that the components procured are suited for the intended PV installation,
specific application, site and environment
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↓
Mitigations Component testing When specifying the technical requirements for PV plant
Design review + components in the EPC contract, in addition to the
construction monitoring component type and quantity, the specifications should also
EPC qualification include:
Advanced monitoring • All applicable certifications and conformances (e.g.
Basic monitoring IEC61215, IEC61730, IEC61701, IEC62804, IEC61716 for
Advanced inspection modules; IEC62109, IEC61000 for inverters; CE mark of
Visual inspection compliance for all electrical components)
Spare part management • The environmental condition the components will be
Others installed in (temperature, humidity, wind and snow load,
any special chemical exposure, corrosion risk etc.)
• For PV modules, module component bill of materials and
the proof of IEC certification documents for these
materials
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑
LCOE Technical 17. Missing guaranteed key performance indicators Phase of risk occurrence
Risk (PR, availability or energy yield) in O&M Procurement Planning
O&M Construction
Key takeaway Guaranteed performance indicator is important to ensure that the plant operation and
maintenance is carried out properly
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↓ ↓
Mitigations Component testing • Require the operator to guarantee plant performance or
Design review + availability which will be assessed on a yearly basis
construction monitoring • Include all details of the performance indicator, test
EPC qualification procedure, calculation (incl. exclusions) and criteria in
Advanced monitoring the O&M contract
Basic monitoring
Advanced inspection
Visual inspection
Spare part management
Others
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↑
As reflected in the LCOE technical risk flashcards, the mitigation measures could be grouped into
nine types. The first eight were defined in [2]. The last type (“Others”) has been added here to define
the mitigation measures not associated to any of the other categories, e.g. those which are related
to the guarantees in the engineering, procurement and constructions (EPC) or O&M contracting or
O&M service scope.
1. Component testing of important plant components such as PV modules or inverters. The testing
could be that which is done by the manufacturer in the factory, or independent testing at certified
laboratory, or on-site at the PV plant;
2. Design review and construction monitoring serves to catch issues caused by bad PV plant
conception and poor PV construction workmanship;
3. EPC qualification focuses on ensuring the competencies of the field workers, e.g., by requiring
certain technical qualification prerequisites or regular training of the field workers;
4. Implementing advanced monitoring system for early detection and diagnosis of faults;
5. Use of basic monitoring system to monitor plant level alarms and notifications1;
1
Although basic monitoring is pretty standard in commercial and large PV installations, it is not widely included in
residential systems and thus included here as a solution since our analysis will consider scenarios of basic monitoring
for residential home PV installations.
9. Others which are mitigation measures associated with EPC or O&M contracting, or O&M service
scope.
These mitigation measures could have either positive or negative impact on the CAPEX, OPEX and
yield. For example, implementing component testing before construction would increase the PV plant
CAPEX (due to additional cost of testing) but decrease the OPEX (decreasing maintenance or repair
of defects already pre-screened), resulting in an increase in the overall plant yield.
For mitigation measures which will impact the PV plant yield, it is worth keeping in mind that the
impact may not be seen directly on the nominal value of the yield itself but on the uncertainties
surrounding the yield variation (this is denoted by ↓↑ or ↑↓ in the table below). The economic impact
in terms of uncertainty is discussed more in detail in [2].
The following table summarizes the impacts on LCOE of the mitigation measures for the 20 most
common gaps in the technical assumptions used in PV financial models identified in [1]. This
information is used for the sensitivity analysis in the next section of this chapter.
Table 1: LCOE technical risk categorization based on impact on CAPEX, OPEX and yield in PV financial models
Phase LCOE technical risk Risk impact on LCOE Mitigation impact on LCOE
CAPEX OPEX Yield CAPEX OPEX Yield
Procure 1. Insufficient EPC technical specifications to ↓ ↑
ment
ensure that selected components are
suitable for use in the specific PV plant
environment of application
Procure 2. Inadequate component testing to check for ↑ ↓ ↑ ↑
ment
product manufacturing deviations
Procure 3. Absence of adequate third party product ↑ ↓ ↑ ↑
ment
delivery acceptance test and criteria
Planning 4. Effect of long-term trends in the solar ↑↓ ↑ ↓↑
resource is not fully accounted for
Planning 5. Exceedance probabilities (e.g. P90) are ↑↓ ↑ ↓↑
/O&M
often calculated for risk assessment
assuming a normal distribution for all
elements contributing to the overall
uncertainty
Planning 6. Incorrect degradation rate and behavior ↓↑ ↑ ↑↓
over time assumed in the yield estimation
Planning 7. Using plant (instead of overall) availability ↑ ↑ ↓
to calculate the initial yield for project
investment financial model
where
N = PV system life [years]
CAPEX = total initial investment (CAPEX) [€/kWp]
OPEX = annual operation and maintenance expenditures (OPEX) [€/kWp]
RV = residual value [€/kWp]
r = discount rate [%]
The low, medium and high level designation is associated with CAPEX and OPEX values among
the scenarios analyzed. For the low scenario, the CAPEX range is set between 0.9 and 1.3 €/Wp
and the OPEX ranges between 5 and 13 €/MWp/year, depending on the market segment. For this
scenario, we have simulated the LCOE for a PV system in a location with an optimal plane-of-array
irradiation comparatively in the mid-range among countries in EU (e.g. 1331 kWh/m2 for Munich,
Germany). For discount rate, 4% is assumed. Additional information on the components behind the
calculation of this discount rate can be found in [4]. This scenario could be considered representing
PV systems in mature markets such as Germany where high competition has driven the CAPEX and
OPEX prices down and the market is less risky.
For the medium scenario, the CAPEX is set between 1 and 1.4 €/W. The OPEX is similar to the low
scenario. The irradiation level is set quite high, 1821 kWh/m2, to simulate PV systems in locations
with lots of sunlight. The discount rate is assumed to be quite high (8%) thus the PV system in this
scenario could be considered similar to those in countries such as Italy (in fact, the irradiation value
is for the city of Rome).
In the last scenario (high) we have selected a PV system with the highest CAPEX and OPEX among
the three cases. This scenario is selected to represent PV systems in countries such as UK or the
Netherlands where the irradiation level is low and the discount rate is in between the other two cases.
The irradiation value for Bristol has been used here.
Figure 3: LCOE analysis for “high” scenario for ground-mounted utility system
Figure 4: LCOE analysis - impact of ±20% independent variation of different input parameters for different scenarios
Results of the sensitivity analysis show that for a variation range of ±20%, the variation in yield has
the highest impact in LCOE, followed by the variation in CAPEX, lifetime, discount rate, OPEX and
finally the degradation. These observations are true only for the low scenario (Figure 5). However,
for the medium and the high scenarios, the discount rate impact surpasses that of the lifetime, taking
the third place in the classification. This is clearly visible especially for the medium scenario mainly
because in the medium scenario, the discount rate was set to be quite high (8%) compared to the
other two scenarios. It is worth keeping in mind that a variation larger than ±20% may change the
order of some elements. For example, a larger variation of the discount rate may result in a different
sorting than the one presented in Figure 5.
Figure 5: Classification of input parameters according to their impact on LCOE for a variation of ±20% of each input parameter
Results presented in Figure 6 indicate that specific for ground-mounted PV systems under the low
scenario, most of the mitigation combinations under this scenario yield in average a reduction of
LCOE in the order of 1% to 2%. However, there are some few mitigation combinations that actually
could lead to an undesirable increase of the LCOE. On the other hand, there are some mitigation
combinations that may potentially decrease the LCOE by as much as 4%.
2
The fix scenario defined in [2] is not used in this analysis as it represents an extreme case where the costs related to
fixing all failures (i.e. reference CPN value of 104.75 €/kWp/year) would be by far much higher than the OPEX in any
of the scenarios analyzed in this report.
For an easier visualization of the potential reduction of LCOE through combination of different
mitigation measures for the low scenario, Figure 7 presents the same results as Figure 6 but sorted
according to the impact on the LCOE. This approach allows to rank the magnitude of the impact on
LCOE of not only individual mitigation measures but also their combinations.
The orange line in Figure 7 (primary vertical axis) shows the relative change in the LCOE (%)
resulting from the application of the different 255 combinations of mitigation measures. Each
combination has a related CAPEX and/or OPEX cost, indicated by the blue and green areas on the
chart (secondary vertical axis). Moreover, the application of the mitigation measures may have an
impact in reducing the energy loss associated with the technical risks (red line in the figure –
secondary vertical axis). We can draw the following observations from this analysis:
• For most of the analyzed combinations of mitigation measures, an average LCOE decrease of 1
to 2% is observed. The decline in LCOE is somehow correlated with a smaller increase of OPEX
due to the application of mitigation measures.
• There are several combinations of mitigation measures that actually increase the LCOE.
Mitigation measures with large combined increases in CAPEX and OPEX result in higher
increase in LCOE.
• The best combinations of mitigation measures for this scenario could potentially decrease the
LCOE by as much as 4%. The two best combinations in this scenario are:
o Combination #176: component testing and qualification of EPC (+0.5 % CAPEX) and
advanced monitoring system (+13.3% OPEX).
Similar analysis was repeated for the medium and high scenario for the same market segments. The
plots are presented in Figure 8 and Figure 9 below. As the figures show, the higher CAPEX, OPEX
and/or discount rate in these two scenarios results in higher LCOE. Moreover, the different
combinations of mitigation measures will have a larger impact in lowering the LCOE.
Figure 8: Sorted relative change in LCOE for 255 mitigation measure combinations for ground-mounted utility system for “medium”
scenario
The analysis on different combinations of mitigation measures on LCOE was replicated for the
commercial rooftop and residential PV systems. As mentioned before, although many of the
mitigation measures are not practical from cost and usefulness perspectives for residential PV
systems, we have nevertheless considered this market segment in our analysis for comparison
purpose. The resulting best case mitigation combinations for all three market segments are
summarized in Table 5 below.
Table 5: Maximum LCOE reduction and LCOE after the application of the best combination of mitigation measures
In general, a reduction in the LCOE in the order of 4 to 5% was observed in all cases. The results
continue to highlight that mitigation measures with most positive impacts in LCOE reduction are the
1 177
0
50
10
Rank = 7 Rank = 8 Rank = 9 170
9
8 10
7
6 40
5
4 Other
3
2
1
0
16
48
144
176
56
49
184
18
42
177
50
170
10
40
16
48
144
176
56
49
184
18
42
177
50
170
10
40
Other
Other
Rank = 10
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
16
48
144
176
56
49
184
18
42
177
50
170
10
40
Other
Figure 10: Top 10 most effective mitigation measure combinations for LCOE reduction
It is apparent from the figure above that there is only a dozen or so mitigation combinations which
are most effective in reducing PV LCOE across all three market segments for all three scenarios.
Moreover, the top three most effective combinations appear to involve mitigation measures which
are to be implemented in the early phase of project lifecycle:
• #48: EPC qualification + advanced monitoring system;
• #176: component testing + EPC qualification + advanced monitoring system;
Key Even with an implementation of mitigation measure which increases the CAPEX, the
takeaway overall LCOE decreases as the gain in yield surpasses the extra CAPEX cost.
Risk info • 5% under-estimation of the solar resource due to unaccounted long-term solar
resource trends.
• 0.7% degradation rate was assumed while the manufacturer guarantees annual
degradation of 0.5%.
Mitigations Component The cost of design review in project due diligence is assumed to be
testing ca. 0.5 €/kWp (CAPEX).
Design review + A reduction in the order of 6.5%, 6.2% and 6.4% in LCOE can be
construction achieved for the low, medium and high scenarios respectively by
monitoring
implementing best practices during design review as a mitigation
EPC qualification measure.
Advanced
monitoring
Basic monitoring
Advanced
inspection
Visual inspection
Spare part
management
Others
Key Even with an implementation of mitigation measure which increases the CAPEX, the
takeaway overall LCOE decreases as the gain in yield surpasses the extra CAPEX cost.
Risk info • 1.2% of the delivered modules are below contracted power which translates into an
overall decrease in initial plant performance ratio of roughly 1%.
• Under-performing modules are replaced at 120 €/unit (OPEX).
Figure 12: Impact of module testing prior to installation on LCOE – case study 2
Key Even with an implementation of mitigation measure which increases the OPEX, the
takeaway overall LCOE decreases as the gain in yield surpasses the extra OPEX cost.
The LCOE sensitivity analysis results highlight that the variation in yield has the
highest impact in LCOE, followed by the variation in CAPEX, lifetime or discount rate,
OPEX, and finally the degradation.
The impact of the technical risk mitigations on LCOE was then evaluated. Eight mitigation measures
have been proposed to address the LCOE technical risks identified in the works. Three of these are
component testing, design review and construction monitoring, and EPC qualification which can be
implemented during the early phases of PV project lifecycle. The other five – basic monitoring,
advanced monitoring, visual inspection, advanced inspection, and spare part management, are
mitigation measures during the operational phase of the PV system. We simulated 255 different
combinations of these eight mitigation measures and calculated the corresponding LCOE values.
The analysis was performed for the three market segments and three scenarios used in the above
LCOE sensitivity analysis. The results show the followings:
In general, an LCOE reduction up to 4 to 5% is observed in all cases.
The different combinations of mitigation measures have a larger impact in lowering
the LCOE for scenarios where the higher CAPEX, OPEX, and/or discount rate results
in a higher LCOE.
Mitigation measures which are most effective in lowering PV LCOE are similar across
all three market segments and all scenarios.
The three mitigation measures most effective in lowering LCOE are those implemented
at the early stage of project lifecycle: qualification of EPC, component testing prior to
installation, and advanced monitoring system for early fault detection.
Finally, we presented 3 case studies where PV systems with specific issues are considered: one
case where poor yield estimation method was used in the design phase; the second case involves
low module power output in the procurement phase, and the last case where module cleaning was
not included in the operational phase. The LCOE’s before and after the application of mitigation
measures were calculated.
In all three cases the results highlight that even though the implementation of
mitigation measures increases either CAPEX or OPEX or both, the overall LCOE after
mitigation decreases as the gain in yield surpasses the extra incurred cost.
In total six checklists have been developed based on inputs from the project partners and published
references [7]–[11]. Each checklist could be used as a stand-alone document. The three main
checklists are:
1. Best Practice Checklist for EPC Technical Aspects
The above checklists have been developed for use for utility-scale (ground-mounted) and
commercial rooftop PV installations. The checklists for residential systems are treated separately
since they are based on very different business models; these checklists are presented in another
report of the Solar Bankability project (Technical Bankability Guidelines - Recommendations to
Enhance Technical Quality of PV Investments [3]).
In this regard, we have therefore developed a set of best practice guidelines in the form of checklists
for different actors in the PV value chain. The main three checklists are for best practices to set up
EPC contracting, O&M contracting, and yield calculation/estimation. The three other checklists
compliment the EPC and O&M contracting best practices. Each checklist could be used as a stand-
alone document.
In addition, a set of flash cards for the 20 most common technical risks associated with the gaps in
technical assumptions to calculate PV LCOE have been created to serve as quick references for the
users.
We would like to note that the best practice checklists presented in this report are best suited for use
for utility-scale (ground-mounted) and commercial rooftop PV installations. The residential systems
are based on different business models and thus the best practice guidelines are addressed in
another work of this project [3].
Last but not least, in the LCOE sensitivity analysis and case studies, we have used inputs (for
CAPEX, OPEX, yield, discount rate, yearly degradation, and system lifetime) provided by project
partners and advisory board as well as recent publications on PV system pricings. These values are
from recent years (2015-2016) and will change over time as the PV market continues to evolve.
Consequently, we recommend repeating the analysis once new input numbers become available.
[7] Solar Power Europe, “O&M Best Practice Guidelines,” Solar Power Europe, Public report
Version 1.0, Jun. 2016.
[8] World Bank Group and PPP IRC, “Construction Contracts Checklist.” [Online]. Available:
https://ppp.worldbank.org/public-private-partnership/ppp-overview/practical-tools/checklists-risk-
matrices/construction-contracts-checklist. [Accessed: 30-Nov-2016].
[9] IFC, “Utility-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Power Plants: A project Developer’s Guide,”
International Finance Corporation, Washington, D.C. 20433, Public report, 2015.
[10] DLA PIPER, “International Best Practice in Projects and Construction Agreements,” DLA
PIPER, Nov. 2012.
[11] E. A. Berg, Construction Checklists: A Guide to Frequently Encountered Construction Issues.
American Bar Association, 2008.
LCOE Technical 1. Insufficient EPC technical specifications to ensure Phase of risk occurrence
Risk that selected components are suitable for use in the Procurement Planning
specific PV plant environment of application
O&M Construction
Key takeaway PV plant component specification and requirement in the EPC contract should be as detailed as
possible to ensure that the components procured are suited for the intended PV installation,
specific application, site and environment
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↓
Mitigations Component testing When specifying the technical requirements for PV plant
Design review + components in the EPC contract, in addition to the
construction monitoring component type and quantity, the specifications should also
EPC qualification include:
Advanced monitoring • All applicable certifications and conformances (e.g.
Basic monitoring IEC61215, IEC61730, IEC61701, IEC62804, IEC61716 for
Advanced inspection modules; IEC62109, IEC61000 for inverters; CE mark of
Visual inspection compliance for all electrical components)
Spare part management • The environmental condition the components will be
Others installed in (temperature, humidity, wind and snow load,
any special chemical exposure, corrosion risk etc.)
• For PV modules, module component bill of materials and
the proof of IEC certification documents for these
materials
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑
O&M Construction
Key takeaway Comprehensive relevant product testing in the manufacturer’s factory should be included as an
EPC requirement to minimize issues due to product defects caused by manufacturing deviations
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↑ ↓
Mitigations Component testing For critical PV plant components such as modules or
Design review + inverters, the following product quality control must be
construction monitoring included as part of procurement process required from the
EPC qualification EPC contractor:
Advanced monitoring • Reviewing how the products are tested by the
Basic monitoring manufacturer in the factory (including checking the
Advanced inspection pass/fail criteria for the tests)
Visual inspection • Requesting specific tests to be included in the product
Spare part management test plan in the factory
Others • Reviewing the factory test results at the latest upon
delivery
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↑
LCOE Technical 3. Absence of adequate third party product Phase of risk occurrence
Risk delivery acceptance test and criteria Procurement Planning
O&M Construction
Key takeaway Plant components such as PV modules should only be accepted for PV project installation when
independent testing shows that they have met the contracted technical specifications
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↑ ↓
Mitigations Component testing For critical PV plant components such as modules or
Design review + inverters, the following product quality control must be
construction monitoring included as part of procurement process required from the
EPC qualification EPC contractor:
Advanced monitoring • Have a sample group of product shipment tested by an
Basic monitoring independent trustworthy party if they perform according
Advanced inspection to the contracted requirements
Visual inspection • Clearly define the tests and acceptance criteria prior to
Spare part management testing
Others • Accept only the product shipment if the test results
indicate the product meets the contracted requirements
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↑
O&M Construction
Key takeaway Not counting the long-term trend in solar irradiation could result in under-estimation of PV plant
yield and over-estimation of the annual variability in risk assessment
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↑↓
Mitigations Component testing In a long-term yield estimation:
Design review + • Analyze long-term solar resource databases (ideally more
construction monitoring than 20 years) for the presence of long-term trends
EPC qualification • In the presence of long-term trends, use methods
Advanced monitoring described in best practices to account for the effect of
Basic monitoring these trends in the solar resource
Advanced inspection
Visual inspection
Spare part management
Others
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↓↑
LCOE Technical 5. Exceedance probabilities (e.g. P90) are often Phase of risk occurrence
Risk calculated for risk assessment assuming a Procurement Planning
normal distribution for all elements contributing
to the overall uncertainty O&M Construction
Key takeaway Assuming a normal distribution for all elements in the calculation of exceedance probabilities
may result in misleading risk assessment studies
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↑↓
Mitigations Component testing • In a long-term yield estimation, calculate exceedance
Design review + probabilities (e.g. P90) using empirical method based on
construction monitoring available data instead of simply assuming normal
EPC qualification distribution
Advanced monitoring
Basic monitoring
Advanced inspection
Visual inspection
Spare part management
Others
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↓↑
O&M Construction
Key takeaway Incorrect assumption of degradation rate and behavior over time could have significant impact
on the cash flow and exceedance probabilities in risk assessment
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↓↑
Mitigations Component testing • Take into account the degradation rate and behavior
Design review + when estimating the long-term yield; these assumptions
construction monitoring should be backed up by guaranteed values offered by
EPC qualification the module manufacturers or validated independently
Advanced monitoring • O&M operator should use guaranteed degradation
Basic monitoring values to derive the yearly performance ratio
Advanced inspection
Visual inspection
Spare part management
Others
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↑↓
LCOE Technical 7. Using plant (instead of overall) availability to Phase of risk occurrence
Risk calculate the initial yield for project investment Procurement Planning
financial model
O&M Construction
Key takeaway Incorrect optimistic assumption of PV plant availability in long-term yield estimation could have
a significant impact on the cash flow of the project
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↑
Mitigations Component testing • Use overall availability (which includes downtime beyond
Design review + the O&M), and not the plant availability guaranteed by
construction monitoring the O&M operator) to calculate the initial yield for
EPC qualification project investment financial model and PV LCOE
Advanced monitoring
Basic monitoring
Advanced inspection
Visual inspection
Spare part management
Others
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↓
O&M Construction
Key takeaway Transportation method should ensure that the PV plant components arrive undamaged to the
project site
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↑ ↓
Mitigations Component testing • Require the description of the transportation method to
Design review + be included in the EPC contract
construction monitoring • Audit the loading and unloading important PV plant
EPC qualification components
Advanced monitoring • Implementing visual inspection on components upon
Basic monitoring deliver; for PV modules, the inspection should include
Advanced inspection electroluminescence scan to check for micro-cracks in
Visual inspection solar cell due to module mishandlings
Spare part management • Taking a transportation insurance
Others
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↑
LCOE Technical 9. Inadequate quality procedures in component un- Phase of risk occurrence
Risk packaging and handling during construction by Procurement Planning
workers
O&M Construction
Key takeaway The EPC field workers should be aware of and execute special care and handling of PV plant
components
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↑ ↓
Mitigations Component testing • Inspect construction work quality by carrying out
Design review + construction monitoring site visits. This can be done
construction monitoring through the assistance of a technical advisor. Ideally
EPC qualification construction monitoring should be included in the EPC
Advanced monitoring contract
Basic monitoring • Training of field workers on how to correctly store PV
Advanced inspection plant component before installation
Visual inspection • Training of field workers on any special unpacking
Spare part management protocol and how to carry e.g., PV modules from the
Others unpacking point to the installation place
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↑
O&M Construction
Key takeaway Good workmanship of the EPC field workers is key to constructing a good quality PV plant
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↑ ↓
Mitigations Component testing • Perform construction monitoring / site visits to monitor
Design review + and audit construction progress and work quality. This
construction monitoring can be done through the assistance of a technical
EPC qualification advisor. Ideally construction monitoring should be
Advanced monitoring included in the EPC contract
Basic monitoring • Training of field workers on the correct procedures to
Advanced inspection construct different parts of PV plant
Visual inspection
Spare part management
Others
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↑
LCOE Technical 11. Inadequate protocol or equipment for visual Phase of risk occurrence
Risk inspection during plant acceptance Procurement Planning
O&M Construction
Key takeaway Visual inspection during plant acceptance should include advanced tools such as IR
thermography to detect defects not visible by naked eyes
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↑ ↓
Mitigations Component testing • Require advanced visual inspection tool such as IR
Design review + thermal camera or EL camera as part of the plant
construction monitoring completion/acceptance test
EPC qualification • Include the requirement for such inspection, the
Advanced monitoring protocol and acceptance criteria in the EPC contract
Basic monitoring
Advanced inspection
Visual inspection
Spare part management
Others
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↑
Key takeaway Short-term performance test should be part of provisional plant acceptance and at least one
form of key performance indicator must be used to determine if the EPC contractor has delivered
PV plant which can operate without major issues
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↑ ↓
Mitigations Component testing • Require the EPC contractor to include guarantee of plant
Design review + performance to be achieved as condition for provisional
construction monitoring acceptance. This can be either guaranteed PR or
EPC qualification guaranteed output measured over a short provisional
Advanced monitoring test period following construction completion and grid
Basic monitoring connection
Advanced inspection • Include all details of the performance test procedure,
Visual inspection calculation (incl. exclusions) and criteria in the EPC
Spare part management contract
Others
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↑
LCOE Technical 13. Missing final performance check and guaranteed Phase of risk occurrence
Risk performance Procurement Planning
O&M Construction
Key takeaway PV plant acceptance should include not only provisional but also final performance test after the
plant has been operational for representative period of time
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↑ ↓
Mitigations Component testing • Require in the EPC contract that a guaranteed final plant
Design review + performance ought to be achieved before the plant is
construction monitoring completely accepted
EPC qualification • Include all details of the performance indicator, test
Advanced monitoring procedure, calculation (incl. exclusions) and criteria in
Basic monitoring the EPC contract
Advanced inspection
Visual inspection
Spare part management
Others
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↑
LCOE Technical 15. Standard monitoring system not capable of Phase of risk occurrence
Risk advanced fault detection and identification Procurement Planning
O&M Construction
Key takeaway Early fault detection could prevent defect propagation which could lead to PV plant outage
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↑ ↓
Mitigations Component testing • Use smart monitoring system for PV plant operation
Design review + supervision and control
construction monitoring
EPC qualification
Advanced monitoring
Basic monitoring
Advanced inspection
Visual inspection
Spare part management
Others
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↑ ↑
Key takeaway Defects not visible by naked eyes should be detected and rectified to prevent their impacts on PV
plant performance
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↑ ↓
Mitigations Component testing • Require advanced visual inspection tool such as IR
Design review + thermal camera or EL camera as part of the plant regular
construction monitoring maintenance inspection
EPC qualification • Include the requirement for such inspection, the
Advanced monitoring protocol and acceptance criteria in the O&M contract
Basic monitoring
Advanced inspection
Visual inspection
Spare part management
Others
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↑
LCOE Technical 17. Missing guaranteed key performance indicators Phase of risk occurrence
Risk (PR, availability or energy yield) in O&M Procurement Planning
contract
O&M Construction
Key takeaway Guaranteed performance indicator is important to ensure that the plant operation and
maintenance is carried out properly
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↓ ↓
Mitigations Component testing • Require the operator to guarantee plant performance or
Design review + availability which will be assessed on a yearly basis
construction monitoring • Include all details of the performance indicator, test
EPC qualification procedure, calculation (incl. exclusions) and criteria in
Advanced monitoring the O&M contract
Basic monitoring
Advanced inspection
Visual inspection
Spare part management
Others
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↑
LCOE Technical 19. Missing or inadequate maintenance of the Phase of risk occurrence
Risk monitoring system Procurement Planning
O&M Construction
Key takeaway Monitoring system functionality will affect the quality of the plant operational data.
Maintenance should specifically include the monitoring system
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↓ ↓↑
Mitigations Component testing • Include in the PV plant preventive maintenance activities
Design review + a regular maintenance of plant monitoring system
construction monitoring (functionality check, sensor calibration)
EPC qualification
Advanced monitoring
Basic monitoring
Advanced inspection
Visual inspection
Spare part management
Others
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↑↓
O&M Construction
Key takeaway PV module surface must be kept clean and free of obstacles to maintain maximum absorbed sun
light for electricity generation
CAPEX OPEX Yield
Impact of risk LCOE variables impacted by this risk:
↑ ↓
Mitigations Component testing • The PV plant preventive maintenance activities should
Design review + include module cleaning as standard and the cleaning
construction monitoring frequency should be optimized to match the soiling rate
EPC qualification
Advanced monitoring
Basic monitoring
Advanced inspection
Visual inspection
Spare part management
Others
Impact of LCOE variables impacted by the risk CAPEX OPEX Yield
mitigation mitigations: ↑ ↑
A Definitions, interpretation
1. Is there a set of definitions of important terms provided and are those clear and understood by all
stakeholders?
B Contractual commitments
2. EPC contractor qualification
3. Responsibility and accountability
4. Date of ownership and risk transfer are defined and acceptable
5. Construction start date and end date are defined and acceptable
6. Plant Commercial Operation Date (COD) is defined and in line with FiT or PPA commencement
dates
7. The EPC works should be carried in compliance with (non-exhaustive list)
• Grid code compliance: plant controls (e.g. ability for emergency shut-downs or curtailment
according to grid regulations)
• PPA compliance
• Building permits (if applicable)
• Environmental permits
• Specific regulation for the site (e.g. vegetation management, disposal of green waste)
• [Best practice] List of all applicable technical standards for major components (panels, inverters,
electrical equipment) (non-exhaustive list)
o CE Compliance
o Panel: IEC61215, IEC61730, IEC61701, IEC62716, IEC62804, IEC62108 (CPV)
o IR/EL: IEC60904-12 & 13
o Inverter: IEC62109
o Electrical equipment: IEC61000
o Tracker: IEC62817, IEC62727
o Design and installation: IEC TS 62548
o Commissioning: IEC62446
o Performance monitoring: IEC61724
10. Who is responsible for grid connection and the infrastructure to connect the PV plant to the grid
(transformer, export lines, substation) is clearly defined
11. Site suitability (ground installation)
• Geotechnical and soil study
• Any flood risk
• Other constraints (chemical in the air, corrosive air, etc.)
Site suitability (rooftop installation)
• Roof stability study
• Structural requirements of roof and mounting structure (both static/snow load and
dynamic/wind load
• Fire protection (PV system should not be built across fire protection walls); design should be in
compliance with the building fire protection codes
• Requirement for weathering protection (lifetime of roofing film)
A Definitions, interpretation
1. Is there a set of definitions of important terms provided and are those clear and understood by all
stakeholders?
J Contractual commitments
42. Qualification of parties involved: Owner’s Engineer, O&M contractor, monitoring, security firm
43. Responsibility and accountability
44. Bonus schemes and liquidated damages
B PV yield modeling
5. The PV modeling software and the specific version used must be clearly stated in the report
6. If in-house software is used, the name(s) and version(s) must also be stated
7. All assumptions (e.g. soiling losses, availability, etc.) and sub-models used (e.g. transposition
model) must be clearly stated
D Uncertainty calculation
11. All steps in the long-term yield calculation are subject to uncertainties. All uncertainties should be
clearly stated and references must be provided in the report
12. Special attention must be paid to the solar resource related uncertainties as these are among the
most important elements in the contribution to the overall uncertainty
13. If special methods are used to reduce some uncertainties e.g. site adaptation techniques, these
should be clearly documented and ideally backed up with scientific validation
14. Special care must be taken when classifying each uncertainty as either systematic or variable
(stochastic) since these are treated differently in overall lifetime uncertainty calculations
15. When possible, exceedance probabilities (e.g. P90) for each uncertainty must be calculated using
empirical methods based on available data instead of assuming normal distribution for all elements
1 Alarms / operation Alarms description Date and time, affected power, equipment code / name,
incidents error messages / codes, severity classification,
curtailment period, external visits / inspections from
third parties
2 Contract management Contract general Project name / code, client name, peak power (kWp)
description
5 Contract management Contractual clauses Contract value, availability (%), PR (%), materials /
spare parts, corrective work labor
6 Corrective Activity description Detailed failure typification, failure, fault status, problem
maintenance resolution description, problem cause (*)
10 Inventory management Warehouse Inventory stock count and movement, equipment code /
management name
11 Monitoring and Equipment status Date, status log (protection devices, inverters,
supervision monitoring systems, surveillance systems)
12 Monitoring and Meteo data Irradiation, module temperature, other meteo variables
supervision (ambient temperature, air humidity, wind velocity and
direction, …) (**)
13 Monitoring and Production / AC active and reactive power at PV plant injection point
supervision consumption data and other subsystems or equipment, consumption from
auxiliary systems, other variables (DC/AC voltages and
currents, frequency), power from DC field (**)
14 Monitoring and Performance data PV plant energy production; PR; expected vs real
supervision
20 Warranty management Claims registration Affected equipment, claim description, occurrence date,
communications between O&M, client and
manufacturer/supplier
21 Security management Alarm intervention Alarms log, type of alarm, time of occurrence, counter
measures
(**) IEC 61724 - Photovoltaic system performance monitoring - Guidelines for measurement, data exchange and analysis
(***) IEC 62446 - Photovoltaic (PV) systems - Requirements for testing, documentation and maintenance - Part 1: Grid
connected systems - Documentation, commissioning tests and inspection
1 Insolation ● ●
7 Performance Ratio ● ●
12 Energy-based availability
13 Time-based availability
17 Module degradation