Entrepreneurial Finance
Entrepreneurial Finance
Entrepreneurial Finance
INTRODUCTION
Manuel Adelino
Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business
2
VALUATION
=
Price Present Value
(Cash Flows)
Ingredients:
Current
(Cash) Profits Growth Risk + Timing
3
Revenue
- Cost
Includes cost of goods sold, sales, general and administrative
costs and depreciation
- Taxes
- Investments
4a. Capital Expenditures
4b. Changes in Net Working Capital =
Changes in Op. Assets – Op. Liabilities
5
+ Depreciation
- Capital Expenditures
- Changes in Net Working Capital
+ Depreciation
- Capital Expenditures
- Changes in Net Working Capital
What this does not include:
Interest Expenses
Dividends
7
WHY “PRESENT”:
TIME VALUE OF MONEY
WHY “PRESENT”:
TIME VALUE OF MONEY
grows to
WHY “PRESENT”:
TIME VALUE OF MONEY
grows to
is worth
WHY “PRESENT”:
TIME VALUE OF MONEY
grows to
WHY “PRESENT”:
TIME VALUE OF MONEY
Future Value
Present Value =
(1+rd)t
for some discount rate “rd”.
13
0 1 … 6 7 8 9 …
0 1 … 6 7 8 9 …
CF2 =(1+g)*CF1
CF3 =(1+g)*CF2 = (1+g)2*CF1; …)
CF0
Present Value, =
r3 − g
15
Risk
This is measured by 𝛽
19
Together:
𝑟𝑑 = 𝑟𝑓 + 𝛽 ∗ (𝑟𝑚 − 𝑟𝑓)
COMPARABLES VALUATION
Manuel Adelino
Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business
21
USING MULTIPLES
Find a set of comparable companies (risk, industry, etc.).
1
Risk
This is measured by 𝛽
5
Together:
𝑟𝑑 = 𝑟𝑓 + 𝛽 ∗ (𝑟𝑚 − 𝑟𝑓)
AND
Statement of ambition
VS
Expected outcome
REAL WORLD
Expected outcome
15
Cash Out
P(success)
Cash In
0
COMPUTING NPV
Or, equivalently:
𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑂𝑢𝑡
𝑁𝑃𝑉 = −𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝐼𝑛 +
1 + 𝑟: ;
𝑝 𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠
VC REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN
The required rate of return on each individual investment can be re-
defined as:
)
1 + 𝑟* )
1 + 𝑟'( =
𝑝(𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠)
So that
1 + 𝑟*
𝑟'( = + −1
𝑝 𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 )
1 + 10%
𝑟'( = + − 1 = 51.7%
20%-
VC REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN
5-YEAR EXIT, WACC=10%
David T. Robinson
Duke University
DTR 1 / 50
Sources of Capital for Startups
Two Critical Lessons
1 A $1 is not just a $1: from whom you raise money can be as important as how
much you get
I Investors can be important business leads who can help you build your business; they
are not just there to plug holes in a cash flow statement (although they might be)
I These “value-added" services end up costing more in terms of greater loss of control,
of ownership (but sometimes are worth it)
I Some businesses are not well suited to some types of investors
2 Timing is everything
I Investors specialize in certain points of the lifecycle of a business
I It takes time to build relationships that lead to funding outcomes
I Capital providers are often complements, not substitutes
I Raising too much money too early can be deadly
DTR 2 / 50
Sources of Capital for Startups
How important are the various arrows?
Corporate VC
Venture Capital
Venture Capital
n
io
at
Venture Capital
ic
nd
Sy
Entrepreneurs
DTR 3 / 50
The Who and What
What:
Who: Debt Equity
DTR 4 / 50
UNDERSTANDING DEBT
DTR 5 / 50
Kauffman Firm Survey 2004
All Firms
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
All Firms High Credit Low Credit
DTR 6 / 50
Kauffman Firm Survey 2004
The Difference: Total Capital
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
All Firms High Low All Hi- High Low
Credit Credit tech Credit Credit
DTR 7 / 50
What about Garage businesses?
Garage businesses vary by size
140,000
120,000
100,000
54,536
80,000
50,087
44,839
Outside
Debt
42,208
Outside
Equity
Insider
Debt
60,000
Insider
Equity
21,530
Owner
Debt
Owner
Equity
16,268
26,960
18,753
40,000
8,841
19,353
4,731
2,774
20,000
Non
Home
Employer
Pre
Based
Pre
Revenue
Survived
Profits
Closed
thru
2006
by
2006
DTR 8 / 50
What about Equity-backed Businesses?
Again, Size Varies
2,500,000
2,000,000
628,398
1,500,000
Outside
Debt
Inside
Debt
Owner
Debt
1,000,000
Outside
Equity
Inside
Equity
1,499,644
Owner
Equity
164,891
500,000
75,156
328,999
515,051
0 96,030
Angel
171,145
VC
Corporate
Govt-‐Other
DTR 9 / 50
A Closer Look at Debt
6%
7%
10%
39%
8%
30%
DTR 10 / 50
How Debt Works
Debt has covenants: guidelines that must be adhered to if the debt is considered
to be in good standing
If default, debtholders can seize the firm’s assets and liquidate them
DTR 11 / 50
A CLOSER LOOK AT VENTURE CAPITAL
DTR 12 / 50
Some Important Valuation Concepts for VC
Suppose an entrepreneur takes $10 for 5% of her company. What does this imply
about its value?
Post-money valuation
$ invested
I Post $ = Ownership Share
Pre-money valuation
I Definition: the value of the idea before the new money goes in
DTR 13 / 50
What VC Investment looks like
Suppose an entrepreneur takes $10 for 5% of her company. What really happens?
VC injects capital into the firm, receives a special type of security called
Convertible preferred equity
I Balances “downside protection" when things go wrong with share in upside of firm’s
value
DTR 14 / 50
VC Securities
VCs typically use convertible preferred equity or participating preferred equity when
they invest in a startup
Initially structured as debt with accrued interest
“Liquidation rights" mean that the holder is entitled to some multiple of their
investment back before others get anything
CP: this right is surrendered if the security is converted into equity
An example:
I Firm has 100 shares outstanding–80 common shares, 20 cp shares
I CP convert to 1.8 shares of common but have a face value of $10 each
I CP is thus worth
F $200 as debt
F 31% of the company as equity
If participating, then the liquidation right is first honored, then converted to equity
Incentives
I VCs: this is downside protection
I Management: only gets paid well for big exits
DTR 15 / 50
VC FUNDS
DTR 2/5
What is a VC Investor?
Uni.% The%FUND%
$$%
Carry%
Calls,%Fees% General%%
Pensions%
Distribu?ons% Partner%
$$%
Carry%
Fam.%
Limited%Partners% Por.olio%%
Companies%
DTR 3/5
Fund Lifecycle
Most funds have a 10 year life, include provisions to extend beyond 10.
New
Investments
Follow-on
Investments
Exit/
Wind down
0 5 10 15
DTR 4/5
Compensation Basics
How do VC Investors Earn Money?
Management fees
Carried interest
I Often cannot be earned until fund’s whole invested capital is returned to Limited
Partners
DTR 5/5
HOW DO VC’S VALUE BUSINESSES?
DTR 16 / 50
The Cruel Math of Venture Investing
Why are VC hurdle rates so high?
A VC who invests LPs money for T years must earn a return based on the
expected payout
Cash
| {z In} (1 + r )T = p × Cash Out
| {z } | {z }
VC invest LP required return Expected Outcome
This equation can be used to find the cash-on-cash return required by the VC
Cash Out (1 + r )T
=
Cash In p
We can also express the cash-on-cash return as a hurdle rate
r s
T Cash Out T (1 + r )T
Hurdle Rate = −1= −1
Cash In p
DTR 17 / 50
The VC METHOD
DTR 18 / 50
The Simplified VC Method
What determines how much equity they take?
Exit valuation
NPV =
hurdle rate
5 This is today’s NPV of the entire company. In our example, NPV=$1,000
6 How much of this do you need to own in order to break-even on required
investment?
Note: this calculation overlooks the effect of later investment rounds coming in
DTR 19 / 50
Alternative Formulations
How large does an exit have to be to justify a $10M investment for a 28%
ownership if we expect to wait 5-7 years for an exit and our current ownership will
be diluted 50% before an exit occurs?
How much equity should we negotiate for a $10m investment if we expect to wait
3-5 years for an exit that will be priced at an 11X EBITDA multiple on 100M in
EBITDA? What does this depend on?
DTR 20 / 50
UNDERSTANDING TERMS SHEETS
DTR 21 / 50
Main Terms Sheet Provisions
Valuation:
I Pre-money value
I round size
Governance
I Board Seats
I Preferred Voting Rights (Veto Rights)
I Option pool: incentive current and future management
Exit
I Anti-dilution protection: protect against future value decrease in later funding
I Dividends: seldom cash, but can affect value at liquidation
I Liquidation preferences and participation
Others
I Drag-along versus tag-along rights
I Piggy back versus demand registration rights
I Pay-to-play
I lockup
DTR 22 / 50
UNDERSTANDING OPTION POOLS
DTR 23 / 50
Option Pool
DTR 24 / 50
Accounting for the Option Pool
Is it in the Pre or in the Post?
Founders own 2M shares, raise an additional $1M for 40% ownership. New money
requires 18% option pool.
In the POST:
I Previous example takes down pre money by 0.18 * 2.5M.
I Post money splits the 18% on a 60/40 basis between founder and new investor.
I Ownership fractions are 18%, 32.8%, 49.2%
I In this scenario there would be 4M shares total, 720,000 options.
DTR 25 / 50
Exercise
Consider a company founded with 1m shares of common equity, split amongst the
founders. A year later the company raises $3M of Series A funding at a $1M
pre-money valuation. At this time they also established an option pool of 10% of
post-money shares outstanding, taken out of the post-money valuation of the firm. Two
years later they raise a Series B round from the same investors. The company is
valued at $6m before the $9 M Series B capital raise.
1 How many shares outstanding are there, on a fully diluted basis (i.e., including the
effect of the option pool) after the Series A round?
2 How large is the option pool in terms of the number of shares on a fully diluted
basis?
3 How many shares are outstanding after the B round?
4 What is the price per share of the Series B round?
5 What fraction of the total post-money value of the company after series B does the
option pool represent?
DTR 26 / 50
UNDERSTANDING ANTI-DILUTION
DTR 27 / 50
Anti-Dilution Protection
Lowers the price at which an old share converts to common (rather than issue
more shares)
Flavors of anti-dilution
I Full ratchet: if a single share issues at a lower price, all covered shares change to that
price
I Weighted average: old price adjusts partially to new price depending on relative
amount of capital in each raise
DTR 28 / 50
Alternative Anti-Dilution Calculations
Weighted Average versus Full Ratchet
New Money In
where WBNS = Old Price
DTR 29 / 50
A Weighty Example
Scenario 1: Series B puts in an additional $100 but gets 50 shares ($2 price)
20 + ( 100
5
=)20 4
New Price = $5 × = $5 × = 2.86
50 + 20 = 70 7
20 + 300
5
= 60 80
New Price = $5 × = $5 × = 2.35
150 + 20 = 170 170
DTR 30 / 50
ANGEL INVESTORS
DTR 31 / 50
Who Are Angels?
I Annual Income > $200K for last 2 yrs, or joint income > $300K
Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of Consumer Finances suggests there are about 10
million qualified households. Far, far fewer are investors, yet this market is large
compared to the VC market.
DTR 32 / 50
What do Angels do?
DTR 33 / 50
Some Success Stories
Amazon.com
I 8/1995: Two angels invest $54K. At IPO in 5/97, this was worth $7.6M.
I Apple (1977),
DTR 34 / 50
Angel returns
DTR 35 / 50
ANGEL Securities
DTR 36 / 50
Angel Contracts
I Sets the rules for who is investing and who is receiving investment, what constitutes
change of control, bankruptcy, default, etc.
I Actually describes the security that the investor is receiving when they make an
investment
Increasingly, Convertible Notes are being replaced by SAFEs (Simple Agreements for
Future Equity)
DTR 37 / 50
Angel Contracts
As a practical matter the distinction isn’t so important because in the event that the
startup fails to raise follow on financing, the difference between being a debt holder or
an equity holder isn’t so important: both securities are probably worthless.
DTR 38 / 50
Angel Contracts
DTR 39 / 50
Angel Contracts
This Convertible Promissory Note is one of the Notes referred to in, and is executed
and delivered in connection with, that certain Note Purchase Agreement, dated as of
[date] (as amended from time to time, the “Purchase Agreement"), by and among
Borrower, Lender and the other parties to such agreement. Additional rights of Lender
are set forth in the Purchase Agreement. Capitalized terms used in this Note without
definition will have the meanings given to such terms in the Purchase Agreement.
1 Principal Repayment. Unless this convertible promissory note (the “Note") has
been converted in accordance with the terms of Section 4 below, and subject to
acceleration as provided in this Note, the outstanding principal amount of the Loan
and all unpaid accrued interest will be fully due and payable in cash twelve (12)
months from the date of this Note (the “Maturity Date").
DTR 40 / 50
Angel Contracts
Automatic Conversion
Notwithstanding the provisions of Section 1, in the event that the Borrower is-
sues and sells shares of any series of its Preferred Stock on or before the Ma-
turity Date raising an aggregate of $400,000 or more (a “Qualified Financing”),
then, the outstanding principal balance of (and any unpaid accrued interest
under) this Note will automatically convert in whole without any further action
by the Lender into that number of shares the series of Preferred Stock issued
in the Qualified Financing (the “Shares") as is equal to the unpaid principal
balance (and unpaid accrued interest, if elected) of this Note as of the closing
of the Qualified Financing divided by the multiple of (i) the per share purchase
price of the Shares paid by the investors purchasing such stock and (ii) eighty
percent (80%) (a discount of twenty percent (20%), with any fraction of a Share
rounded down to the next whole Share, and otherwise on the same terms and
conditions as given to such investors. Borrower will pay in cash the fair market
value of any fraction of a Share.
DTR 41 / 50
Angel Contracts
Conversion Math
$ invested
# shares =
0.8 × Next Series Share Price
number of shares in exchange for the money you invested in the company as an angel
investor. E.g., assume that you put in $400,000 into a convertible note and then one
year later the company raises Series A funding at $5 share. You receive 100,000
shares instead of the 80,000 that a Series A investor would have received for that
much money.
DTR 42 / 50
Angel Contracts
DTR 43 / 50
Angel Contracts
What if the value of the company is very high in the next financing round?
To protect the angel investor against this possibility, the term sheet will impose a
cap
DTR 44 / 50
Angel Contracts
The Cap
DTR 45 / 50
Angel Contracts
Simple Translation
$ invested
# shares =
0.8 × Next Series Share Price
number of shares in exchange for the money you invested in the company as an angel
investor.
OR
$ invested
# shares =
Capped Price
Where capped price is the price per share of assuming the company had a $10 million
pre-money valuation.
DTR 46 / 50
Angel Contracts
An Example
One year ago, you invested $100,000 in a SAFE with a 8% annual dividend. The
company has 10 million shares outstanding. A qualified financing event arrives:
You get
108, 000
67, 500 shares =
1.60
But wait! You have a share price capped by a $10 million pre-money valuation!
You get
108, 000
108, 000 shares =
1.00
DTR 47 / 50
Angel Contracts
CONCLUSION
DTR 48 / 50
Angel Contracts
Corporate VC
Venture Capital
Venture Capital
n
io
at
Venture Capital
ic
nd
Sy
Entrepreneurs
DTR 49 / 50
Angel Contracts
1 A $1 is not just a $1: from whom you raise money can be as important as how
much you get
I Investors can be important business leads who can help you build your business; they
are not just there to plug holes in a cash flow statement (although they might be)
I These “value-added" services end up costing more in terms of greater loss of control,
of ownership (but sometimes are worth it)
I Some businesses are not well suited to some types of investors
2 Timing is everything
I Investors specialize in certain points of the lifecycle of a business
I It takes time to build relationships that lead to funding outcomes
I Capital providers are often complements, not substitutes
I Raising too much money too early can be deadly
DTR 50 / 50
PREFERRED EQUITY
David T. Robinson
Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business
Back to the Terms Sheet
Participation rights:
After liquidation preferences are paid
Typically capped for total return (times money)
Liq. Preferences and Participation
Before the round is raised, option pool created totaling 20% of the
post-money capitalization of the firm
Price/Share
Price/Share
Options Options
Pre-money Post-money
CAPITALIZATION TABLES
David T. Robinson
Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business
Blue Devil Enterprises
Price/Share $ 1.00