Scenario Planning Tools

Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Scenario Planning Toolkit
The toolkit was developed for the Department for Transport by Waverley Management
Consultants.
Although this report was commissioned by the Department for Transport, the findings and recommendations
are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the DfT.
Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Contents
The scenario planning toolkit..................................................................................1

Introduction...............................................................................................................3
Who uses scenarios? ..............................................................................................3
Overview of the scenario process...........................................................................6
Further information..................................................................................................7
Introduction...............................................................................................................8
The scenario matrix..................................................................................................8
Overview of the scenarios.......................................................................................9
Presenting the scenarios.......................................................................................12
Plausibility matrix...................................................................................................14
Futureproofing........................................................................................................15
Looking for signals.................................................................................................17
Reverse engineering..............................................................................................20
Policy brainstorm...................................................................................................23
The fifth scenario....................................................................................................26
STEEP Analysis......................................................................................................31
Visioning.................................................................................................................33
Step 1: The future...................................................................................................33
Step 2: Current reality............................................................................................34
Issue Trees..............................................................................................................35
Predetermined elements and critical uncertainties.............................................37
Stakeholder analysis..............................................................................................39
Creating Scenarios.................................................................................................41
Economic Performance..........................................................................................45
Economic Performance..........................................................................................45
Environmental Performance..................................................................................45
Environmental Performance..................................................................................45
Social Parameters ..................................................................................................46
Social Parameters ..................................................................................................46
Transport Activity...................................................................................................46
Transport Activity...................................................................................................46
Health impacts........................................................................................................47
Health impacts........................................................................................................47
Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Health impacts........................................................................................................47
Annex 1: IIS scenarios Aide Memoire

Annex 2: Slide set: Overview of the IIS Scenarios
Annex 3: Slide set: Scenarios and their purpose
Annex 4: Working with the scenarios: Task sheets
Scenario Planning
Toolkit Introduction
The scenario planning toolkit
In 2006, Foresight1 launched the Intelligent Infrastructure

Systems (IIS) project, a cross Government initiative to
explore how science and technology might be applied
over the next 50 years to the design and implementation
of intelligent infrastructure for transport.
The project found that transport infrastructure will change

radically as scientific and technological developments
change what we travel on, the vehicles we travel in and
the information we have about the system.2 It also found
that building the kind of infrastructure the UK needs to
remain competitive and provide high quality of life will not
happen automatically and that government and its
stakeholders will need to work together to make choices
about the levels and patterns of investment required to
achieve what we all want.
Making choices of this type is not always straightforward. In a world of rapid change and
increasing uncertainty, it can be difficult to know what the right choices are and different
stakeholders may have different priorities and ideas about what is desirable or
necessary and may not have a shared view of how the future will develop.
To help clarify some of these long term issues and to provide a context to support
decision making, the IIS project produced four possible scenarios that explore
uncertainties about the future of intelligent infrastructure systems: future scientific
capabilities, technological developments, the role of business and Government and
social attitudes. The scenarios are not an attempt to predict what will happen or to
suggest what the preferred future might be; they are stories which suggest various
possible, even extreme, outcomes. They are designed to stimulate thought, to spell out
some of the opportunities and threats we might face in the future and to inform today’s
decisions. The full details of the scenarios can be used to judge the risks and
opportunities of policy relating to the future management of intelligent infrastructure.
The purpose of this toolkit is to provide policymakers and other stakeholders with the
resources they need to explore the scenarios and use them to support their own decision
making.
The toolkit is in four sections:
• About scenario planning offers a brief

introduction to scenarios and the scenario process;
• The IIS scenarios provides an overview of the
Intelligent Infrastructure Systems scenarios;
• Working with scenarios provides a suite of
techniques that can be used to facilitate discussions - ranging from 75 minute
meetings to day long workshops – on the scenarios;
• Using scenario techniques provides a suite of
1
Foresight is part of the DTI’s Office of Science and Innovation
2
The full report can be found on Foresight’s website
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Scenario Planning
Toolkit Introduction
scenario and futures processes - ranging from 75 minute meetings to day long
workshops – that may help general strategic discussions.
The Annexes contain slides and other supporting material.
The technique sheets are designed to be accessible to those with little experience of
facilitation. They are not meant to be prescriptive, but to help get things started - and
experienced facilitators may wish to customise or develop them in light of their own
knowledge and experience. Although the toolkit is based on the IIS scenarios all the
workshop material can be used with any set of scenarios.
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Scenario Planning
Toolkit
About scenario planning

A brief introduction to scenarios and the scenario process
Introduction.............................................................Error: Reference source not found

Who uses scenarios?..............................................Error: Reference source not found
Overview of the scenario process...........................Error: Reference source not found
Further information..................................................Error: Reference source not found
Scenario Planning
Toolkit About scenario planning
Introduction
Many organisations plan for the future – or, at least, for a future that they believe or hope
will happen. Often, this future is based on ‘best’ or ‘worst’ case projections of current
trends and bears an uncanny resemblance to the present. Consumers make similar
choices to the ones they make now, competitors offer similar products and services, and
the organisation itself does more or less the same things, with some minor changes of
emphasis that reflect the trends analysis.
This approach works best for organisations that operate in stable, predictable
environments – but most of today’s businesses, educational institutions and other public
sector organisations are facing greater uncertainty and experiencing more change than
ever before. They need an approach that helps them make sense of what is going on,
spot new trends and events that are likely to affect them in future, and, perhaps, make
significant changes to what they do and how they work.
Scenarios are a tool that organisations – and policy makers - can use to help them
imagine and manage the future more effectively. The scenario process highlights the
principal drivers of change and associated uncertainties facing organisations today and
explores how they might play out in the future. The result is a set of stories that offer
alternative views of what the future might look like.
Through discussion, organisations and policy makers can explore what they would do
differently in each scenario. They can identify success criteria, suggest new ways of
working and define new relationships. Generally, these differ in each scenario – and the
discussion can help participants build a shared understanding of how the increasingly
complex changes taking place in the world are likely to affect their activities.
The great strength of scenario planning is that it can be used to look at today’s challenge
from a different perspective. The process of identifying and examining how current
factors and trends might play out in the future helps participants focus on the likely
impact of those trends on their own organisation. Quite often, participants find that the
impacts are going to be bigger – or happen sooner – than they had previously realised.
Ultimately, organisations use scenario planning to help them anticipate, prepare for or
manage change. As Stephen Ladyman – UK Minister for Transport – said at the launch
of Foresight’s Intelligent Infrastructure Systems project in January 2006:
“We can either stumble into the future and hope it turns out alright or we can try and
shape it. To shape it, the first step is to work out what it might look like.”
Who uses scenarios?
Scenarios are widely used by governments, businesses and voluntary organisations to

inform strategy and policy development. They can be done on a large or small scale; as
part of a wider body of work or as a discrete exercise; as a way of gathering expert
opinion from external bodies and individuals or as a method to develop internal thinking.
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Scenario Planning
The UK Foresight Programme
The UK Foresight programme, based in the Office of Science and Innovation, aims
to improve the relative performance of UK science and engineering and its use by
government and society. To achieve this the programme identifies potential
opportunities for the economy or society from new science and technologies, or
considers how future science and technologies could address key future
challenges for society.
Foresight runs a rolling programme of projects with three and four running at any
one time. A project is either a key issue where science can offer possible solutions
(e.g. flood and coastal defence), or an area of cutting edge science where the
potential applications and technologies have yet to be considered or articulated
more broadly (e.g. cognitive systems).
Projects usually last between 12 and 18 months. Futures techniques are used to
ensure current trends and currently known technologies are not simply projected
forward and scenarios are normally a core part of the process. The scenarios are
used to inform the recommendations for action by research funders, business,
Government or others to make the most of the potential of science and technology.
The Foresight scenario methodology varies, but is largely workshop based,

involving leading scientists, academics and policy experts to refine drivers and
trends, to identify key uncertainties and to detail and validate the scenario
sketches. Detailed storylines are developed by drawing their ideas together with
the detailed research work that is commissioned as part of the process.
The National Intelligence Council’s 2020 project
The National Intelligence Council (NIC) is a centre of strategic thinking within the
US Government which provides the President and senior policymakers with
analyses of foreign policy issues that have been reviewed and coordinated
throughout the Intelligence Community.
Mapping the Global Future, published in 2005, looks at how key global trends
might develop over the next decade and a half to influence world events. The
report contains large amounts of data and uses four scenarios - Davos World, Pax
Americana, A New Caliphate, and Cycle of Fear - to try to capture how key trends
might play out. The project process lasted about a year and NIC organized
conferences on five continents to solicit the views of foreign experts on the
prospects for their regions over the next 15 years. More than a thousand people
participated.
The project's primary goal is “to provide US policymakers with a view of how the
world developments could evolve, identifying opportunities and potentially negative
developments that might warrant policy action.”
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Scenario Planning
The Department for Trade and Industry
The Department for Trade and Industry has a dedicated futures facility –
futurefocus@dti – which develops and uses scenarios constantly.
The first set of scenarios used in the

centre – Know How to Get Ahead,
m-Governance and Local Heroes
(collectively known as the DTI2015
scenarios) – were regional
development futures which offered
different perspectives on the social,
economic and political trends
shaping the UK economy. The
scenarios, which were developed
through desk research and
workshops were used constantly over a three year period to stimulate policy
debate and inform new initiatives – across government and with industry partners.
They were also dramatised and presented within the centre’s immersive theatre –
a powerful approach to communication.
futurefocus has also produced scenarios on learning in the knowledge economy

and on the future of communications and postal services. The DTI’s strategy
development process now routinely employs scenario thinking.
Shell
Shell – the company who famously brought scenario planning into the business
environment - has been producing Global Scenarios for more than 30 years to
inform investment decisions about complex projects which are normally developed
and operated over several decades.
The Shell Global Scenarios to 2025, published in 2005, describe three scenarios –
Low Trust Globalisation, Open Doors and Flags - that examine the interplay
between three essential forces - market incentives, the force of community, and
coercion and regulation - and provide “a simple, unified context…to better
understand the various conditions under which we may have to operate in different
regions or in different circumstances.”
In his introduction to Shell Global Scenarios to 2025, Chief Executive Jeroen van
der Veer points out the imperative for Shell to use the scenarios to “gain deeper
insights into our global business environment and to achieve the cultural change
that is at the heart of our Group strategy. We face real challenges in the future, we
will all need to be able to respond to changing circumstances and make informed
and rigorous judgements about our decisions: these scenarios and methodology
will help us to do that better.”
Greater Pollok Development Company
Greater Pollok, located five miles southwest of the Glasgow city centre is primarily
residential, with a small economic base of several industrial and retail centres. It is
a young, friendly, and civic-minded area, with a rising population and a growing
range of service groups and community initiatives – but there are high levels of
unemployment as well as a high percentage of economically active aged people
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Scenario Planning

who are not working.
Buoyant Labour
Greater Pollok Development Market
Company (GPDC) was
founded in 2001 to help the
people and companies of Pandora
’s Box Business As Usual
Greater Pollok successfully
People feel
compete in the global empowered to People feel
economy. GPDC – now contribute to disenfranchised
society
known as Equip - is entrusted
with promoting the area’s Technopunk Armageddon
economic regeneration. It’s
task is to help ensure local
people and businesses fulfill Depressed Labour
Market
their potential and that
Greater Pollok is an asset to the city of Glasgow, contributing fully to its economic
and social life. To that end, GPDC runs programmes and initiatives aimed at
helping local people and companies improve their current economic standing and
their future prospects.
In 2005, the Board and senior management team of GPDC undertook a scenario
planning exercise to inform their long term strategic plan. The exercise – which
took five days – alerted them to a number of political and economic developments
which they had not noticed before. It allowed them to explore how their products
and services might need to change with changing economic circumstances and
has fed directly into the development of a new strategy for the company and for
Greater Pollok.
Overview of the scenario process
Scenario planning is a flexible process that can be tailored to different circumstances

and different needs. While there is no “definitive” scenario process, most exercises fit
within a four stage structure:
• Stage 1: identification and analysis of change

drivers
• Stage 2: identification of predetermined

elements and critical uncertainties
• Stage 3: construction of the scenario matrix
• Stage 4: construction of the scenario narratives.
Stage 1: Identification and analysis of change drivers
Change drivers are factors which are shaping the future contextual environment.
Some change drivers are highly visible now, but others are less so; and while it
may be possible to determine the effects of change drivers on the present and the
near future, it can be less easy to determine their effects in the medium to long
term.
It is therefore important during this stage of the scenario process to identify a

broad range of drivers and to consider which will be most important in the future –
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Scenario Planning

rather than to focus solely on which are most important now.
Typically at this stage, therefore, drivers are prioritised according to their future
importance to - or impact on - the policy area.
Stage 2: identification of predetermined elements and critical uncertainties
Once drivers have been prioritised, the next step is to consider how the important
ones might play out in the future. In some case, drivers will be predetermined
elements – that is, their outcome will be quite clear – and in other cases drivers will
have uncertain outcomes. It is important during this stage of the scenario process
to identify and characterise both types of outcome. For uncertain drivers, it is
essential at this stage to identify the nature of the uncertainty and the range of
possible outcomes. It is also important to explore the dynamic interplay between
drivers over time.
The critical output from this stage is a number of ‘axes of uncertainty’ which
describe the range of uncertainties for the future, together with the range of
possible outcomes. The uncertainties are used to define the scenario space and
to shape narrative production; predetermined elements define strategic issues that
need to be addressed across all the scenarios
Stage 3: Construction of the scenario matrix
The scenario matrix is a 2x2 schematic that defines the main parameters of the
scenarios. It is constructed by juxtaposing the two axes of uncertainty that reflect
the most important uncertainties, offer the most insight or provide the most
intriguing glimpse of the future.
Matrix construction is an art rather than a science and the final 2x2 is often
decided through negotiation, intuition and testing.
Stage 4: Construction of the scenario narratives
The scenario narratives are constructed within the logical framework provided by
the scenario matrix. The narratives draw on all the material in stages 1 and 2 and
also on wider research. The narratives can either describe ‘end states’ – what the
world looks like in the future, without any sense of how that future evolved – or
‘timelines’ – a description of how the future has evolved from the present day. The
narratives should present the perspectives of different stakeholders in order to
provide a sense of the different priorities and issues that exist in each future.
Wherever possible, stakeholders should be involved in testing and exploring the

emerging scenario narratives.
Further information
Further information on scenario planning and other futures techniques can be found in
DfT’s World of Futures paper, in Foresight’s strategic futures planning toolkit Suggestions
for Success and in the Strategy Survival Guide at the Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit.
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Scenario Planning
Toolkit
The IIS scenarios

An overview of the Intelligent Infrastructure Systems scenarios
Introduction.............................................................Error: Reference source not found

The scenario matrix................................................Error: Reference source not found
Overview of the scenarios.......................................Error: Reference source not found
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Scenario Planning
Toolkit The IIS scenarios
Introduction
To help clarify some of the long term issues and to provide a context to support decision
making, the IIS project produced four possible scenarios that explore uncertainties about
the future of intelligent infrastructure systems: future scientific capabilities, technological
developments, the role of business and Government and social attitudes.
The scenarios are not an attempt to predict what will happen or to suggest what the
preferred future might be - they are stories which suggest various possible, even
extreme, outcomes. They are designed to stimulate thought, to spell out some of the
opportunities and threats we might face in the future and to inform today’s decisions.
The full details of the scenarios can be used to judge the risks and opportunities of policy
relating tot he future management of intelligent infrastructure.
The scenario matrix
The IIS scenarios are set along Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure
two axes of uncertainty.
The vertical axis Accepting of Good Intentions Perpetual Motion
integrated intelligent
infrastructure  Resistant
to integrated intelligent High Impact Low impact
infrastructure describes social Transport Transport
attitudes. At one extreme, the

digital native generation, which
has grown up using technology Tribal Trading Urban Colonies
and is confident that it will
continue to deliver and protect.
Personal data and identity are Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure
protected; continuous
investment in physical and IT infrastructure allows development of systems that are
flexible, adaptive and integrated. Businesses take advantage of the integrated intelligent
infrastructure to form wide-reaching networks.
At the other extreme, intelligent infrastructures are in place, but are not integrated.
Terrorism, viruses, identity theft and fear of disruption and instability mean that people
are mistrustful of intelligent systems. Economic uncertainties add to their risk aversion.
People rely on legacy infrastructure – or even bypass it where possible. Groups of
businesses, and the affluent, use private networks and services.
The horizontal axis High impact transport  Low impact transport describes the
consequences of transport on the environment, economy and society. At one extreme,
high levels of carbon emissions, a continuing dependence on oil, and a significant waste
footprint all contribute to high environmental impact. Social impacts - noise levels, land
take and lower social and community cohesion - are prevalent. At the other extreme,
cleaner fuel technologies have reduced carbon emissions, the waste footprint has
shrunk and product longevity is emphasised because of resource constraints. The social
and community impact of faster transport, however, remains equivocal and segments of
the community may still be excluded because of uneven access to transport.
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Scenario Planning
Overview of the scenarios
The key elements of each scenario are described in the following section. Annex 1
provides a summary of all four scenarios which can be printed out for workshop
participants.
Perpetual Motion
A raft of ICT and intelligent transport developments throughout the 2010s and
2020s have helped to fuel the ‘always on’ society of the last fifty years. Intelligent
positioning systems, encryption technology, real-time tele-presencing and a shift
towards a low carbon economy have all played their part in driving the rampant
consumerism which shows few signs of abating.
Demand for travel and transport has remained strong in this ‘always on’ world –
transport is now well-connected, semi-automated and (mostly) friction-free.
However, with new technologies – which combine low or zero emissions with
energy “vectors” which ensure efficient energy capture and storage - ensuring that
environmental curbs on car use are unnecessary, traffic management remains a
critical problem. Motor manufacturers’ success in developing hydrogen-fuelled
vehicles has helped to meet the desire for more cars, but they are not cheap (and
neither are the sustainable housing developments which also utilise hydrogen
storage of energy). Use and benefit remains as polarised as it was at the end of
the 20th century.
Whilst technology has enabled some individuals to move out of the city centres –
away from the constant buzz of life – this has left some urban centres vulnerable.
Inhabited by the highly-stressed and affluent, but also those outside mainstream
society who survive largely by stealing, or as they put it, sharing, the identity of
others, they have seen a rise in criminal attacks and violent behaviour. Some
have moved to the “whitespaces”, the remote rural areas beyond the electronic
network, and preach the virtues of self-sufficiency.
As a society, we are richer than ever, more than twice as affluent as we were in
2005, and one consequence is that there are different attitudes to the value and
purpose of work among some. It is increasingly hard to fill jobs which involve
working anti-social hours. Even when migrants can be hired who have the
language skills needed in the service sector, they stay only for a few weeks or few
months before moving on. With fewer people needing the pay from such jobs, and
a growing realisation of the social costs of such work on family life and social
relationships, many service deliverers have been forced to put in place
sophisticated auto-delivery systems in order to continue to provide the levels of
service and frequency of delivery their customers have come to expect.
Urban Colonies
Four decades after the UK decided to put clean environmental practice at the heart
of economic and social policy, the country has been transformed. New housing
has been built within existing cities, on brownfield sites and through intelligent re-
development, rather than through new housing on city edges and beyond.
Planning rules have changed to ensure that all developments are mixed use.
One of the main aims of policy is to reduce energy consumption, and eliminate
waste. Transport is permitted if it is “clean and green”, but not otherwise. People
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Scenario Planning

travel, but not as far, and often by foot or cycle. Local electric vehicles are
ubiquitous, and light rail schemes are common.
Materially, fewer goods are consumed than in 2005, but more services. And
people also value possessions which will last more than they did then, not least
because the tax system has been fundamentally redesigned so that people are
taxed principally on the resources they use up, rather than the money they earn or
what they spend.
Although intelligent infrastructure is widely deployed, it is not integrated. There

have been too many system failures, too many network crashes. Privacy has been
breached too many times. The result is that in a world where technology systems
are treated with some suspicion, it is a source of competitive advantage if yours is
self-contained, and therefore less likely to fail because of failures elsewhere. In
any case the experience of integration has not been happy; sometimes it has failed
simply because the systems are too complex for our ability – human,
mathematical, technical - to process them.
Globally, most economic value resides in “knowledge hubs”, which emphasises the
importance of attracting the best people to learn, and to work, in your city.
Competition between cities is about quality of life. In this respect, Europe has done
well, developing its cultural resources and social philosophies to create cities
which are envied everywhere. The judiciously applied migration policy, of free
movement within Europe, with a proportion of “investment visas” for those from
elsewhere, has helped to manage its ageing population while attracting the best
young talent from the countries of the South and East.
The story in rural areas is mixed. There is more agricultural work than there was in
the 20th century, and more people are employed on the land. But it is still poorly
paid, and few want to do the work. Rural areas also suffer from poorer
communications. Generally, it is expensive and inconvenient to live in the
countryside and work in the city, unless the regional government is one of the few
which has invested in light rail links. The ‘new landed gentry’, who have made
money in the city and moved out, are widely disliked. The rural poor remain poor
but not very happy.
Tribal Trading
It is two generations since the Great Disruption stripped the veneer away from
civilisation, and made us realise how thin it had been and how dependent we were
on cheap energy.
The world now is more local than it was and lifestyles have changed accordingly.
People still travel, but more slowly and not so far. Work is closer to the home;
indeed, in some places, living patterns have reverted to the pre-industrial, with the
home and the workplace being the same. People – certainly in Europe and the
United States – are colder and hungrier than they were 50 years ago. But more
appropriate building design has compensated for some of the cold, and diet is
better. Less energy means that there is more physical work to be done, so people
are fitter too.
Carbon emissions have contracted, mainly because far less energy is used than in
the later 20th century, although coal is burnt again for heat and some power at
least where it can be recovered.
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Scenario Planning

Vehicles for local use combine human power with electricity, for those who desire
such luxury; the fastest vehicles on the road are steam powered; although there
are precious few of those, they are well-suited to the wide if battered roads which
remain from the later 20th century.
This is a world in which the ‘energy cost’ of everything, goods or services, has to
be paid for. People own less than they used to, and they repair more than they
used to. Waste is minimal, not out of ideological concern but simply because it is a
luxury; when things reach the end of their functional lives, they are re-used or re-
cycled. People also trade less than they used to; however, they do trade the things
they can’t make locally.
Localism also makes for diversity in political and economic systems, even if the
fizzing experimentalism of the second quarter of the century has diminished as
some local social systems have shown themselves to be more robust than others.
But the other side of this is the recurring local conflicts over resources. As the
population levels have settled these conflicts have become less intense, but those
communities blessed with good local energy sources and good agriculture are still
vulnerable, even if they are also the communities most able to afford the
manpower to defend their boundaries.
Good Intentions
After half a century of contention, the “road wars” which have dominated transport
policy since the early part of the century finally seem to be over. The largely
unrestricted personal mobility that people enjoyed in the early years of the century
is now a distant memory. A tough national surveillance system means that people
only travel if they have sufficient carbon quotas – and these are increasingly tightly
rationed. Traffic volumes have shrunk hugely, and will fall further as the carbon
ration continues to be reduced.
Regions and local authorities have followed the lead of their governments and run
local initiatives to reduce travel demand; and very few governments have opted out
of the international Contraction and Convergence Agreement to reduce global
emissions. Political and economic sanctions are imposed through the United
Nations on those rogue states which do not comply.
At a national level, much of the implementation is based on satellite surveillance

which can monitor every car on the road, if need be. This is coupled with a carbon
credits smart card which is needed by any citizen who wishes to use any kind of
carbon resources, from having a shower to driving to eating out to listening to a
digital music system. Those who are short of credits have to buy them; those who
have changed their lifestyle sufficiently and have credits to spare, or who are
financially poor and who have little need for travel, have prospered by selling their
excess credits. Since the individual carbon level continues to be cut each year,
there are always willing buyers, at increasingly attractive prices.
One of the biggest incentives to change behaviour and reduce carbon

consumption was the change in the tax system, which started to have a significant
effect from the early 2030s. Instead of being taxed mostly on earning and
spending, as under the old income tax and VAT systems, most tax is now raised
against resource consumption. The EU led the way by replacing VAT with RUT (a
resource use tax). The result has proved to be far more progressive, with far
greater distributional effects, than the old system ever was, and far easier to
police.
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But despite such environmental enforcement, the scientific community remains
pessimistic. Antarctica continues to shrink, and there are new stories, constantly,
about carbon released into the environment as the ice retreats in the north. The
sustained unpredictability of global weather patterns continues to have huge social
and economic consequences.
The Carbon Clock is still ticking closer to doomsday, or so the scientists say.
CHASM, the organisation of Concerned Humanists, Artists and Scientists for
Mankind, sets it every year depending on the rate of change of damage to the
atmosphere. The parts per million are continuing to rise, ever closer to the critical
levels which could take us into uncharted and unpredictable climatic territory. At a
news conference in Paris, the organisation’s global chairman announces that the
clock has just ticked on to 2 minutes to midnight. The world of the cold war and
nuclear threat never felt as ominous as this…
Presenting the scenarios
Annex 2 contains a set of slides which provide an overview of the scenarios. The
scenarios appear in the report in a particular order – Perpetual Motion, Urban Colonies,
Tribal Trading and Good Intentions – and are generally presented in that order too. A
full set of slides is available from [email protected].
Annex 3 contains a set of slides that provide a broad description of scenarios and their
purpose and which can be useful during the introduction to a workshop.
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Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Working with the scenarios

A suite of techniques that can be used to facilitate discussions - ranging from
75 minute meetings to day long workshops – on the scenarios
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Futureproofing.........................................................Error: Reference source not found
Looking for signals..................................................Error: Reference source not found
Reverse engineering...............................................Error: Reference source not found
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The fifth scenario....................................................Error: Reference source not found
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Scenario Planning
Toolkit Working with the scenarios
Most Most Most Most Closest to Closest to Closest to the Closest to the
Plausible favourable favourable favourable now the future future your future
for citizens for for your you organisation government
business organisation personally is knowingly policy is
aspire to or knowingly or
unknowingly unknowingly
pursuing creating
Perpetual
Motion
Urban
Colonies
Tribal
Technique Trading
Good
Plausibility Intentions
matrix
Plausibility matrix
Purpose
To highlight strategic
choices or dilemmas
This is a good exercise for
i
and to identify the • getting groups talking to each other
‘official future’
• identifying different opinions on where you are going
Overview and where you should be going
A short diagnostic
that invites It (almost!) never fails to reveal differences of opinion,
participants to look tensions between current plans and preferred futures
closely at the and strategic dilemmas. You can use the outputs to
scenarios and feed directly into other discussions or simply use the
describe which exercise to start people thinking.
one(s) they favour
Participants
The steps
Any team or group
1. Introduce the scenarios and present the first
Time scenario (Perpetual Motion).
90 minutes 2. Ask the group to spend 10 minutes discussing what
they like and don’t like about the scenario3
3. Spend 5 minutes noting likes and dislikes on a flip
chart
4. Repeat steps 1-3 for the other three scenarios
5. Draw the matrix below – without the column
headings – on a flip chart. Invite the group to vote by a
show of hands. Only reveal the question as you get to
each column.
6. Consider the results and invite the group to reflect on
what they mean for the team’s activities and strategy.
3
Participants should focus on what they like and don’t like about the
world described in the scenarios at this point, not on how believable
or plausible the scenarios are – that comes next
14
Scenario Planning
Futureproofing
This is a good exercise for

• helping participants to focus on team or i
strategic objectives
• testing the robustness of objectives
• exploring when and how they might need to be
Technique modifed
Futureproofing Participants explore whether objectives are robust,
redundant or in need of modification. The exercise can
Purpose
either be done on its own or followed by the plausibility
To focus attention on matrix.
current and future
strategic or policy You can use the outputs to feed directly into other
objectives
discussions or simply use the exercise to start people
Overview thinking.
A diagnostic test of
whether the team’s The steps
objectives are robust
across the range of 1. Describe scenarios and their purpose.
futures represented
by the scenarios 2. Divide participants into four groups. Give each group
a summary of4 one scenario.5
Participants 3. Ask each group to discuss the strengths and
Any team or group
weaknesses of their scenario. Allow 15 minutes.
4. Remind participants of the team/group/strategic
Time objectives6. Invite each group to test the objectives
against their scenario. They should
75 minutes
a. Imagine that the world is as it is described in the
scenario
b. Decide whether – for this world – each objective
is
i. Robust
ii. Redundant
iii. In need of some modification
c. Be prepared to explain why they have made their
decision
Allow (say) 15-20 minutes
4
…or the slides for…
5
each group gets a different scenario, so that all three scenarios are
being worked on at the same time
6
the exercise works for any level. You may need to provide a
handout or put objectives up on a slide to remind people
15
Scenario Planning
5. Bring all groups back to plenary and capture the

results on Perpetual Urban Tribal Good
the following Motion Colonies Trading Intentions
matrix: Objective 1
Objective 2
6. Consider
Objective 3
the results
and invite Objective 4
the group to
reflect on what they mean for the team’s activities and
strategy.
16
Scenario Planning

Looking for signals
This is an good exercise for

i
• getting groups talking to each other
• getting people to look at newspapers and magazines

in a different way from usual
Participants discuss the scenarios and then look for

Technique newspaper or magazine articles that point towards one
Looking for signals or another of the scenarios starting to emerge. They
often find this exercise quite surprising, in that they can
Purpose find articles that represent many of the trends in the
scenarios.
To help participants
notice some of the
broader changes There is also an option to extend this
which are taking exercise by 30-45 minutes by inviting people
place in society
! to discuss the relevance of some of the
newspaper clippings.
Overview
Participants look for This exercise requires some advance preparation.
newspaper cuttings Facilitators should bring a number of newspapers
that point towards and periodicals to the event (an average of 1.5 per
the different delegate). They should also provide some way for
scenarios participants to stick or glue newspaper cuttings onto
flip chart paper.
Participants
Any team or group Before starting the exercise, stick 4 sheets of flip
chart paper onto the wall and draw up the scenario
matrix.
Time
90 minutes. The steps
Can be extended by
30-45 minutes with 1. Introduce the scenarios and present the first
an additional scenario (Perpetual Motion).
exercise
2. Ask the group to spend 10 minutes discussing what
they like and don’t like about the scenario7
3. Spend 5 minutes noting likes and dislikes on a flip
chart
4. Repeat steps 1-3 for the other three scenarios
5. Stick 4 flip chart sheets on the wall
6. Hand out the newspapers and magazines and ask
participants to
a. Look through them for articles that point
towards any of the scenarios
b. tear the articles out
7
Participants should focus on what they like and don’t like about the
world described in the scenarios at this point, not on how believable
or plausible the scenarios are – that comes next
17
Scenario Planning

c. stick them
onto the matrix in the
relevant scenario
quadrant
Allow 15-20 minutes
18
Scenario Planning
7. Debrief the group by

asking for their
reactions. Is there
anything surprising?
Does one scenario
seem more likely than
others?
Additional exercise
This additional exercise

builds on the cuttings
and is an intriguing –
and effective – way of
getting the groups to
consider the strategic
implications of the news
articles.
1. Divide participants
into groups of 4-6
2. Invite everyone to
collect (take off the wall)
one or two of the articles
they found that seem to
be important to the
Department or the team
3. They should begin
by telling each other
about the articles and
why they think they are
important or interesting
4. They should then
build clusters – or
groups - of articles. The
basis for clustering is to
spot some kind of
connection or signal that
is emerging from them
5. They should use the
Looking for signals task
sheet to help them
record the discussion
6. Allow 30 minutes
then hold a short debrief
to gather the ideas.
This exercise can form a

bridge into the main part
of a team event.
19
Scenario Planning

Reverse engineering
This is a useful technique for identifying events that

are certain to occur and that will have a high impact
on the team or the department. It uses the
i
scenarios as a stimulus for discussion, but by the time
participant get to step 5, they no longer use them.
Typically, this exercise will yield a number of short term

threats, opportunities and issues that need to be
Technique
addressed - as well as numerous medium to long term
Reverse engineering issues to track.
Purpose The group is split into ‘scenario teams’, each of which
To identify future works on one of the scenarios.8 You therefore need
threats and three or four flip chart sheets pinned to the wall, or three
opportunities and or four flip chart stands.
how to overcome
them
Part 1: identify and map events
Overview
A post-it exercise 1. Describe scenarios and their purpose.
where participants
use the scenarios to 2. Divide participants into four groups. Give each group
identify high impact a summary of9 one scenario10
events that are
certain to happen in 3. Ask each group to discuss the strengths and
the future. weaknesses of their scenario. Allow 15 minutes.
Participants
4. Ask everyone to think of 5 events that need to occur
if their particular scenario is to happen. They should
Any group of write the events on post-its (one event per note).
stakeholders who
the project sponsor 5. Invite people to pair up and discuss their events11.
wishes to engage in
Allow 10-15 minutes for steps 4 and 5.
the futures process
or who they want to 6. Each scenario group should now map the events on
influence. the matrix shown on page 2. Set up the matrix for each
scenario group using flip chart sheets tacked to the wall
or on a flip chart stand. Don’t draw up the whole matrix
Time
at once; instead,
3 hours
a. Draw a line down the centre of the flip chart
b. Write ‘High impact’12’ at 3 o’clock and ‘Low
impact’ at 9 o’clock
8
This exercise works best if there are at least 4 people in each
scenario team; if the group has only 10-12 people, it might be better
to split into two teams and ask each to do the exercise with two
scenarios
9
…or the slides for
10
each group gets a different scenario, so that all three scenarios
are being worked on at the same time
11 Staying within the scenario groups
12
impact on the department, your team, or a particular project.
20
Scenario Planning
7. Ask the groups to discuss each event that they have

identified and decide which side of the line it would sit if
it were to happen...
8. Once they have completed the task - in 15-20
minutes, say – draw up the rest of the matrix by adding
the horizontal axis and writing ‘certain to occur’ at 12
o’clock and ‘not certain to occur’ at 6 o’clock13.
Certain to occur
Low Impact High Impact
Not certain to occur

9. Encourage the group to explore differences of
opinion and to work towards consensus. Don’t allow
events to sit on the lines!
10. Allow 20 minutes for this step.
Part 2: Identify opportunities and threats
1. Focus each group on their top right quadrant14.

These are events which are certain to occur and which
will have a high impact. Ask the group to identify
a. whether these events are likely to occur in
the short, medium or long term
b. whether the impact is positive or negative
c. what - if any - indicators might signal that the
event is imminent
d. how the department, the team or
stakeholders need to respond
2. Capture and discuss.
13
“not certain to occur’ is not the same as ‘certain to not occur’
14 You can split each scenario group into two at this point and have
them work in parallel on top and bottom right quadrants
21
Scenario Planning
3. Focus the group on

the bottom right
quadrant and identify
a. whether the
uncertainty is
high,
medium or
low
b. whether the
impact - if
they do
occur – will
be positive
or negative
c. whether the
department,
the team or
stakeholders
are prepared
if the event
does occur
d. what
indicators
you should
track to
monitor
whether the
event is
going to
occur
4. Capture and discuss.
5. The output from
these exercises can be
used to inform strategic
planning or to set an
agenda for operational
activities designed to
capture opportunities
and mitigate threats.
22
Scenario Planning

Policy brainstorm
The policy brainstorm exercise is useful for teams who

cannot commit a day to working with the scenarios but
who want to use the scenarios to stimulate thinking
i
about new policy development.
The workshop is used to generate as many new ideas

as possible – teams will need to consider the ideas
further at a later date.
Technique
Agenda
Policy Brainstorm
Purpose Time Activity
To use the scenarios 9.30 Introduction

as a stimulus for
identifying new • Describe purpose and agenda
policy ideas
• Brief introduction to scenarios
Overview
A brainstorming 9.45 Presentation: Perpetual Motion and Urban
session Colonies15
Participants 10.00 Discussion:

Those responsible
for strategy and • Split into two breakout groups
policy. Useful to
include external
• What do you like about your scenario? Not
stakeholders. like?
12-15 is ideal. • Assume that you are living in your scenario
and that you have been asked to make
recommendations to the Secretary of State
Time for Transport on government policy. Identify
3 hours
o no brainers16
o creative recommendations
o heroic recommendations
10.25 Feedback
• Capture feedback from the Perpetual

Motion group first.
• Write the ideas on flip charts – don’t allow

critiquing
• Once all the ideas have been captured,
15
Hand out copies of the scenario slides and/or summaries
16
No brainers are obvious policy recommendations (obvious to state
but not necessarily easy to achieve)
23
Scenario Planning
open up the brainstorm to everyone and

capture additional ideas
Time Activity
• Repeat for 10.45 Coffee
11.00 Presentation: Tribal Trading and Good

Intentions
11.15 Discussion:
• Split into two breakout groups

• What do you like about your scenario? Not
like?
• Assume that you are living in your scenario
and that you have been asked to make
recommendations to the Secretary of State for
Transport on government policy. Identify
o no brainers17
o creative recommendations
o heroic recommendations
11.25 Feedback
• Capture feedback from the Tribal Trading

group first.
• Write the ideas on flip charts – don’t allow

critiquing
• Once all the ideas have been captured,

open up the brainstorm to everyone and capture
additional ideas
• Repeat for Good Intentions
11.40 Review
• What policies appear across all futures?
• What policies appear in only one future?
• Are there other policy issues that the

scenarios suggest?
12.15 Close
17
No brainers are obvious policy recommendations (obvious to state
but not necessarily easy to achieve)
24
Scenario Planning
25
Scenario Planning

The fifth scenario
The purpose of describing a ‘fifth scenario’ is to

build a preferred future – or vision – that draws on
the content from an existing set of four scenarios.
i
The approach allows policy makers to present a
‘customised’ scenario in which they have taken action to
minimise threats and maximise opportunities.
Process overview
Technique
The fifth scenario 1. Agree the policy or operational area that the fifth
scenario is being built around. This is normally done in
Purpose advance of the workshop.
To build a ‘fifth 2. Present and discuss the scenarios.
scenario’ that
describes a shared 3. Use the plausibility matrix to identify which scenario
strategic vision
is closest to the future the group aspires to.
Overview 4. Describe a fifth scenario that improves on this
A long half day scenario by
workshop where a. building on its strengths
participants use
elements from a set b. overcoming its weaknesses
of four scenarios to
describe their c. drawing on positive elements from other
preferred future – scenarios
and the steps 5. Agree the steps and tasks needed to deliver the fifth
required to deliver it. scenario.
Participants
Participants are split into two groups for step 2, each of
Those responsible which works with two of the four scenarios. Groups work
for strategy and in parallel.
policy. Useful to
include external There is a detailed agenda on page 2. The process is
stakeholders. supported by three task sheets (fifth scenario task sheet
1, fifth scenario task sheet 2 and fifth scenario task sheet
12-15 is ideal.
3).
Time
9.45am-4.30pm
26
Scenario Planning
Agenda
Time Activity
9.45 Introduction
• Describe purpose and agenda
• Confirm the policy area being discussed
• Brief introduction to scenarios
10.10 Presentation: Perpetual Motion and Urban Colonies18
10.25 Discussion:
• Split into two breakout groups19

• What do you like about your scenario? Not like?
• SWOT analysis for the policy area
• Key challenges and issues for the policy area in the scenario
10.45 Feedback
11.10 Coffee
11.30 Presentation: Tribal Trading and Good Intentions
11.45 Discussion:
• Split into two breakout groups20

• What do you like about your scenario? Not like?
• SWOT analysis for the policy area
• Key challenges and issues for the policy area in the scenario
12.10 Feedback
12.30 Plausibility matrix
• Map plausibility and favourability21
• Discuss the findings
18
Hand out copies of the scenario slides and/or summaries
19
Record the discussion on Fifth Scenario task sheet 1
20
21
See Plausibility Matrix
27
Scenario Planning
• Agree which scenario most closely describes the group’s preferred

future
1.00 Lunch
28
Scenario Planning
Time Activity
1.30 Review
• Present the preferred scenario again
• Ensure everyone has copies of the scenario slides/summary
• Share out photocopies of the appropriate task sheet as filled in during

the morning
1.45 Describing the fifth scenario

• Group brainstorm
– Which parts of the preferred scenario must happen in the future
– Which parts of the preferred scenario must not happen in the
future
– Which parts of the other scenarios would you like to happen?
2.15 Creating the fifth scenario

• Form three breakout groups22
• Group 1 identify – and map on a timeline - the 10 key steps or events

required to ensure that the ‘must happens’ occur

required to ensure that the ‘must not happens’ do not occur

required to ensure that the ‘would likes’ occur
2.45 Feedback
3.15 Coffee
3.30 Next steps

• Form three new breakout groups23
• Group 1: Who is responsible for the must happens? What must they
do now? Who should be involved?
• Group 2: Who is responsible for the must not happens? What must
they do now? Who should be involved?
• Group 3: Who is responsible for the would like to happens? What

must they do now? Who should be involved?
4.00 Feedback
4.20 Review
22
23
29
Scenario Planning
4.30 Close
30
Scenario Planning

Gaming
i
Gaming workshops offer a rich perspective on the
policy challenges facing government and other
actors. The outputs from gaming workshops
generally highlight a number of significant policy challenges
and risk issues that need to be addressed in the near future.
Process overview
Technique The gaming approach is a method which replicates

the discussions used to generate the scenarios. Following a
Gaming presentation of each scenario, participants
Purpose
1. carry out a SWOT analysis of the first scenario from the
To build a ‘fifth perspective of one of (say) three stakeholders
scenario’ that (government, citizens, industry are all suitable
describes a shared candidates);
strategic vision
2. use the SWOT discussion to determine the extent to
Overview which each stakeholder likes living and working in the
scenario and identify what they want government or the
A role play
market to do in order to maintain or improve their level of
exercise where
satisfaction;
participants
consider how 3. step out of role and - imagining that the scenario is an
stakeholders accurate representation of the future – make a number
might create of recommendations for current policy. These
success in the recommendations should re-inforce the elements of the
future scenario which participants believe to be beneficial to
the UK and should address those elements which are
Participants likely to be less beneficial;
Any. 4. repeat steps 1-3 for the other three scenarios;
5. compare the results of the different scenario discussions
Time to identify robust policy challenges (ones which appear
Full day across all or most of the scenarios) and scenario specific
challenges;
6. carry out – if required - a plausibility and favourability
vote and explore what the results mean for future policy
activity.
31
Scenario Planning
Agenda
Time Activity
9.30 Welcome, introduction and purpose
9.40 Presentation: introduction to scenarios
9.50 Presentation: Perpetual Motion
10.00 Discussion:
• Split into three breakout groups, each representing one stakeholder:

government, business or citizens24
• Each group discuss what the scenario is like for their stakeholder by
carrying out a SWOT analysis from the stakeholder’s perspective
• What are the main issues you want government to tackle on your
behalf25
• Stepping out of role and – imagining that the scenario is an accurate

representation of the future – what recommendations would you like to
make on strategy or policy?
10.45 Feedback
11.15 Coffee
11.40 Presentation: Urban Colonies
11.50 Discussion:
• Split into three breakout groups, each representing one stakeholder:

government, business or citizens
• Each group discuss what the scenario is like for their stakeholder by
carrying out a SWOT analysis from the stakeholder’s perspective
behalf26

12.30 Feedback
1.00 Lunch
24
Where possible, ask workshop participants to role play a different stakeholder to themselves
25
The government group should identify the main challenges facing them
26
32
Scenario Planning
Time Activity
1.40 Presentation: Tribal Trading and Good Intentions
2.00 Discussion:
• Split into two breakout groups, each focussing on one scenario

• Within each breakout group, participants should organise themselves
into government, business or citizens roles
• Each sub group discuss what the scenario is like for their stakeholder
by carrying out a SWOT analysis from the stakeholder’s perspective
behalf27

2.45 Feedback
3.30 Coffee
3.45 Plenary Discussion
• Run the Plausibility Matrix and discuss the outcomes

• What are the robust policy or strategy options that need to be tackled
across all futures?
• What are the risks to government (or your organisation) that need to
be managed in pursuing these options?
4.30 Review
4.45 Close
27
33
Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Using scenario techniques

A suite of scenario and futures processes - ranging from 75 minute meetings
to day long workshops – that may help general strategic discussions
STEEP Analysis......................................................Error: Reference source not found

Visioning.................................................................Error: Reference source not found
Issue Trees.............................................................Error: Reference source not found
Predetermined elements and critical uncertainties. .Error: Reference source not found
Stakeholder analysis...............................................Error: Reference source not found
Creating Scenarios.................................................Error: Reference source not found
34
Scenario Planning
Toolkit Using scenario techniques

STEEP Analysis
STEEP analysis is a good technique for

• structuring a brainstorm session at the start of a i
strategy or futures exercise;
• helping groups to focus on what is driving change in
the external environment.
The approach is based on the ‘3 circles model’

Technique -developed by Colin Eden and Kees van der Heijden at
STEEP Analysis the University of Strathclyde - which describes three
aspects of an organisation’s business environment:
Purpose
• the internal organisational environment, where
To help participants
decision making is largely focussed on operational
begin thinking and
talking strategically issues and resource management;
Overview • the external transactional environment, where an

organisation’s customers, competitors, suppliers and
Brainstorming and external stakeholders sit. Their behaviours and
clustering exercise choices shape the transactional environment and
on post-its
challenge the
Participants organisation to Contextual Environment
respond. When
Any team or group decision makers Driving Forces
analyse what is
Time happening in this
75-90 minutes. environment, Transactional Environment
however, they organisational

generally look at environment
the recent past,

the present and
(at best) the near
future – in order Societal
Technological
to make short Economic
Driving Forces
term reactive Environmental

Political
decisions
designed to optimise short term performance;
• the wider contextual environment. Trends and

events in the contextual environment are not – by
definition – of immediate relevance to the
organisation. These trends (drivers) are, however,
shaping development of consumer and competitor
behaviour in the transactional environment.
Typically, drivers are categorised as Societal,
Technological, Environmental, Economic and
Political.
The purpose of STEEP analysis is to look at the

contextual environment, to characterise the drivers that
are operating – and then consider what – if any – effect
they might have on the organisation’s future activities.
31
Scenario Planning
The steps
a. Invite participants to work in twos or threes

b. Discuss what is driving change (introduce the
STEEP concept)
c. After 5-10 minutes, invite participants individually to

write (say) 5 drivers on post-it notes
d. In twos and threes again, ask participants to cluster
the post-its
e. Identify the name of each cluster
f. Identify the pivotal – or most significant/high impact
driver in each cluster
g. Discuss the likely impact and implications of the
cluster on your activities
32
Scenario Planning

Visioning
Visioning is a good exercise for
• getting groups to focus on what success looks

i
like
• diagnosing how close the organisations is to the

group’s ideal
Technique • setting an agenda for forward action

Visioning Participants use a number of questions to describe a
future where the organisation is highly successful – then
Purpose
identify how the current reality need to change to
To define a common ensure success.
vision and purpose
Overview Step 1: The future

A series of questions
which bring pertinent Imagine it is five years from today. Your team has
issues to the fore successfully created the organisation you most want to
create. Your task in this session, as a team, is to
Participants describe what it looks like as if you could see it around
A team or group who you.
have to work
together on a Use the following questions as triggers give everyone
common purpose. the opportunity to contribute and capture the
With or without a conversation on flip charts. Try and speak in the present
facilitator. tense – it will help you to imagine you are in the future.
Time 1. Who are our stakeholders? How do we work with

60-90 minutes.
them? How do we create value for them?
2. What are the major socio-economic trends that are
influencing what we do?
3. How are we perceived by our customers and
stakeholders?
4. How do we add value/generate income?
5. What kind of people work here? Why do they
choose to work for us?
6. What kind of leaders and decision making
processes do we have?
7. How do we manage the good times?
8. How do we handle difficult times?
9. What are our values? How do people treat each
other?
10. How do we reward people?
11. How do we measure progress and success?
12. How does the organisation learn from its successes
and failures?
33
Scenario Planning

Step 2: Current reality
Now come back to the present day and explore a related

set of questions:
1. How close are we to our vision?

2. What aspects of our organisation and our systems
do we need to change to achieve the vision?
3. Is our people’s experience of change positive or
negative? How do we manage the change process
to ensure they come with us?
4. What do we need to do now to get started?
34
Scenario Planning

Issue Trees
This technique is a good one to use i

• at the start of a project when thinking through the
overarching question that the project is attempting to
answer
• to deepen your understanding of the issues involved

Technique
The key to building a successful issues tree is to
Issue Trees constantly ask questions and to keep adding layers until
the group believes it has built a fully comprehensive tree.
Purpose
To identify the high There is an example of an issue tree (developed at the
level questions and start of the IIS project) on page 2.
issues in a futures
project The process
Overview
1. Write an opening question that relates to the
A structured project’s aims.
conversational
process that 2. Move onto the next layer (layer 2) and set out the
deepens
key questions that need to be answered in order to
understanding of the
issues surrounding a
answer the opening question (layer 1)
futures project
3. Repeat stage 2 for each of the questions in layer 2.
Participants
…and so on until you feel you asked the fundamental
Best done with topic questions at the heart of the project. You can now use
experts and external
the issue tree to organize the project work.
stakeholders, but
can be carried out by
a project team on its
own.
Time
1-3 hours
35
Scenario Planning
Issue Tree from the IIS scoping process

H o w w ill w e k n o w w h a t w e n e e d ?
W h a t d r iv e s th a t d e m a n d ?
W h a t is th e d e m a n d ?
W h a t c o n s tr a in s t h a t d e m a n d ?
H o w w i l l d eW l i vh ea rt y c o u l d b e d e l i v e r e d ?
m e e t fu tu re n e e d ? H o w d o w e m e e t fu tu re n e e d ?
W h a t c a n b e d e liv e r e d ?
D e liv e r in g c u r r e n t n e e d ?
W h a t s h o u ld b e d e liv e r e d ? P r ic in g a p p r o p r ia t e t o c o s t /
m e e t in g n e e d ?
W h a t s h o u ld w e c h o o s e
n o t t o d e liv e r ?
H o w d o w e m a n a g e th e H o w d o w e m a n a g e u n f u lf i
t r a n s i t i o n f r o m c u r r e n t t o f u t un ree e d ?
d e liv e r y ?
W h a t a r e f e e d b a c k m e c h a n is m s ?
H ow do w e
o p t im is e H o w d o y o u a d ju s t
in f r a s t r u c tu r e c a p a c i t y t o W m h e a et t c a n t e c h n o l o g y d o t o h e l p
d e liv e r y ? W h a t i s t h en e e d ? m a n a g e c a p a c i tWy ?h a t a r e o p t i m a l
in s ta n ta n e o u s c h a r a c te r is tic s ?
c a p a c it y ? H o w d o y o u im p r o v e c h a r a c t e r is t ic s ?
G o v e rn m e n t?
W h a t a re c o n tro l
H o w c a nW wh eo d e l i Bv eu rss i ?n e s s ? m e c h a n is m s ?
o p t im iz e t h e M o n o p o ly ?
d e liv e r y o f a
g iv e n n e e d ?
W h y d e liv e r ?
F e e d b a c k fro m w h o m ?
H o w t o e v a lu a t e
o p tim is a tio n ?
C r it e r ia f o r e v a lu a t io n ?
36
Scenario Planning

Predetermined elements and critical uncertainties
This is a good technique for
• Identifying whether the organisation is prepared

i
for future change
• Setting a scanning agenda

The approach mimics the start of a scenario planning
Technique exercise and can therefore be used to test some
scenario issues. It starts in the same way as STEEP
Predetermined Analysis.
elements and critical
uncertainties
Purpose The steps
To identify the
impact of change 1. Invite participants to work in twos or threes
drivers on the 2. Discuss what is driving change in society (introduce
organisation’s
activities
the STEEP concept). Keep this stage much wider than
the project area or topic that the group is looking at –
Overview they can filter out irrelevant drivers at the next stage.
Participants 3. After 5-10 minutes, invite participants individually to
brainstorm and sort write (say) 5 drivers on post-it notes
change drivers
4. Collect the post its and map them on a 2x2 matrix
Participants according to whether
Any team or group. a. The driver is important for the project under
Ideal to involve consideration
external experts.
b. The outcome of the driver (the impact it will
have) is certain
Time
2-3 hours
37
Scenario Planning
Important
5. Focus on the top
left quadrant – - drivers
which are important and
have a certain outcome.
These are predetermined
Certain Uncertain
elements. Discuss
Outcome Outcome
a. what the
outcome of
each trend will
be
Not important b. whether its
impact on your
work will be positive or negative
c. whether your organisations is prepared to
capitalise on the opportunities or respond to
the threats
d. whether there is anything else you should do
6. Now look at the top right quadrant - drivers which

are important but which have an uncertain outcome.
Discuss
a. what the alternatives outcomes might be
b. what the possible impact on your work might
be
c. the possible timescale of the uncertainty
d. what you should track or scan for to monitor
the driver’s development
38
Scenario Planning

Stakeholder analysis
This is a useful technique for exploring which

stakeholders have most influence on a group’s
actions.
i
Part 1: Map stakeholders
7. Brainstorm a list of stakeholders. Write each

Technique stakeholder down on a post-it note.
Stakeholder analysis
8. Draw the following matrix on a flip chart and discuss
Purpose where each post it goes. Map the stakeholders
according to
To consider
strategies for
managing a. whether their interest in the project is high or
stakeholder low
engagement
b. whether their ability to influence the project
Overview
outcomes is high or low
A post-it exercise
where participants
list and prioritise High
stakeholders
according to their
ability to help a
project.
Participants
The project team. Influence
Needs at least 6
participants.
Time
1.5-3 hours
Low High
Interest
Part 2: Stakeholder management
1. Focus on the high-high quadrant and discuss
a. whether each stakeholder’s influence is

potentially helpful or unhelpful to what you are trying to
achieve
b. the extent to which you need to engage with

each of these stakeholders and involve them in the
project
39
Scenario Planning

exercise by repeating part 1 and – if it useful – part 2
c. how you with a futures perspective. The technique is the same,
propose to manage but the group should brainstorm who stakeholders will
stakeholders who could be in the future – once, say, the project is completed.
be unhelpful to what you They should then be mapped onto the matrix according
are trying to achieve to their future interest and future influence.
2. Look at the High Often the changes emerging from the futures mapping
Interest-Low Influence are quite small – but quite significant.
quadrant and discuss
a. whether it is
possible for any of these
stakeholder to acquire
more influence
b. whether it is
desirable for them to
acquire more influence
c. whether you
have any role to play in
helping them acquire
more influence
d. how you
propose to engage them
in the process
3. Look at the High

Influence-Low Interest
quadrant and discuss
a. whether each
stakeholder’s influence
is potentially helpful or
unhelpful to what you
are trying to achieve
b. whether it
would be helpful to the
project if they acquired a
higher level of interest
c. whether you
have any role to play in
helping them acquire
more interest
d. how you
propose to engage them
in the process
You can extend this
40
Scenario Planning

Creating Scenarios
This exercise is designed to create a set of

scenarios. It is an ideal way to help groups
i
• think about the changing business environment
• create multiple futures
Technique ! • rehearse strategic decisions
Creating Scenarios Running a scenario workshop in one day is

challenging. Use an experienced facilitiator.
Purpose
To build a set of Process overview
future scenarios
The workshop begins with a brainstorm of key
Overview uncertainties. Participants list ideas on post its and then
group related post its
A workshop into clusters (Figure 1).
process to identify They then name the
key drivers and clusters and identify
uncertainties and the critical uncertainty
to consider how in each one (marked
they will play out in with a red dot in Figure
the future. 1).
Participants Participants use the Fig 1: Cluster of uncertainties
A diverse group of critical uncertainties to
stakeholders create axes of uncertainty to create of uncertainty - two
clearly defined poles on an axis that describe alternative
Time ways the uncertainty might play out (Figure 2).
Full day Unconstrained Growth within

growth limits
Figure 2: Axis of uncertainty

Once all the axes have been described, participants
should vote for the two they would like to form the
scenario matrix (Figure 3). In the second part of the
workshop, participants
Global focus • describe the four scenarios
• test their strategic
objectives against them
Unconstrained
growth
Growth within
limits
• test their own strategic
fitness using the plausibility
matrix
• examine the
Local focus
consequences for strategy and
policy
Figure 3: Scenario matrix
41
Scenario Planning
42
Scenario Planning
One day workshop
9.15 Welcome and Introductions
9.30 Agree key objectives for [the venture]
9.50 Brainstorm: What are the key uncertainties surrounding the future of [the
venture]?
- Discuss in pairs
- Capture on post-its
10.30 Sort: group post-its into related clusters

11.15 Coffee
11.30 Name clusters and identify critical uncertainty in each
12.15 Describe axes of uncertainty
12.45 Agree scenario matrix

- Vote and test
1.00 Lunch
1.30 Develop scenarios

- 2 break out groups
- Each group develop two scenarios
- Describe each scenario in 10 bullet points and name it
- wind tunnel the key objectives
- the big challenge facing [the venture] in the scenario is…
3.15 Presentations and discussion:

- Which is most plausible?
- Which is most favourable?
- Which are we planning for?
3.45 Tea
4.00 Group Discussion

- What does this mean for our strategic objectives?
- What do we need to do differently?
- What are the key messages to take back to the office?
5.00 Close
43
Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Annex 1:
IIS Scenarios Aide Memoire

Scenario Planning
Toolkit IIS Scenarios Aide Memoire
Perpetual Motion Urban Colonies Tribal Trading Good Intentions
Economic Performance Economic Performance Economic Performance Economic Performance

- Most economic value - The collapse of the - High levels of
- Global economic growth resides in knowledge global economic system employment, investment
in a highly connected hubs within cities destroyed millions of and innovation
and competitive world jobs - they have never
- Cities compete on the - More homeworking for
- Work is intense and basis of quality of life, been recovered knowledge workers
intensive: the 24/7 cultural assets and - High levels of
society is here for education - GDP growth continues
employment now in despite less travel -
everyone local food production
- Sustainability and long leading to suggestions
- high levels of affluence termism are key guiding and distribution that the two activities
and innovation create principles for success. - Barter - of goods and are decoupled
rampant consumerism Business is viewed with services - is an
scepticism - There has been
- Much activity is increasingly important significant redistribution
concentrated in urban - Higher consumption of form of trading with its of wealth as a result of
hubs, but older, higher services, but lower own basket of new tax regimes - and
earners tend to move to consumption of goods - currencies the market for carbon
rural areas and use people value things - Regions with diverse credits
technology to remain which are well made skills and strong local
connected and which last. - The greatest
culture do reasonably opportunities lie in the
- Growing home working - There has been a shift well cities; rural areas offer
and teleprescencing towards local production - Work is - inevitably - employment, but little
have not reduced levels closer to home chance of development
of travel
- There is little money for
investment; innovation
comes out of necessity
Environmental Environmental Environmental Environmental
Performance Performance Performance Performance
- Policies focused on - Huge increase in - Governments
- Increased nuclear reducing energy distributed power collaborate on policies
capacity and consumption and generation using sun, to reduce the global
development of eliminate waste wind and water - impact of travel
renewable energy regions with access to
sources have reduced - Energy supply is - The G10’s International
distributed. Microgrids natural resources are Contraction and
dependence on carbon- better off
based fuels generate over 50% of Convergence
household electricity in - Some - but limited - Agreement has resulted
- Extensive deployment the cities contribution to the in a reduction in
of hydrogen fuel cells in national grid emissions
cars means road use - New housing is built on
causes less top of existing - No nuclear power - - …but carbon levels in
environmental damage developments or on government failed to the atmosphere are still
brownfield sites. City invest in it when it could rising.
- The constant volume edges are protected. All afford to
and speed of traffic, - The UK’s Carbon
developments are - Carbon emissions have Entitlements programme
however, create noise mixed use
and stressful physical gone down has been introduced to
spaces - Consumers are taxed ration travel
- Buildings are highly
on the resources they
- Aviation remains carbon use up rather than what
energy efficient - Icecaps are shrinking
intensive and - Extensive re-use and and global weather is
they spend or what they
highimpact recycling of products unpredictable;
earn
waste is minimal environmentalists
- Continued consumption - Everything gets believe the world is
means Europe’s recycled moving into unknown
environmental footprint territory
is unsustainable - Electric vehicles and
biofuels are common
Scenario Planning
Social Parameters Social Parameters Social Parameters Social Parameters

- Policies focussed on - Trust is low - groups of - Government’s approach
- The technology from social equity and tight knit communities seen as ‘too much, too
birth generation are mobility rights that are wary of late’ - but despite some
happy with ID cards, outsiders early disruptions and
pervasive computing - Transport systems are widespread protest,
and always on designed to be - There is a strong spirit
of self help society accepts the
technology accessible for everyone need to act
- High levels of - Free migration of people - Strong communities do
best; weaker - Carbon entitlements
empowerment. Many across Europe; the UK (CEs) have become a
individuals take control is an attractive location communities find it hard
to build social cohesion second currency. Many
of their own education - Cities have strong cash poor are CE rich -
and careers - so many identities and offer a - Big cities are heavily and trade with those
thrive stronger sense of policed; towns and rural who are cash rich and
- Lower paid service community; people are communities feel safer CE poor
sector workers earn well more compassionate. - More physical work and - Many middle income
but are forced to work - On street crime has less indulgent lifestyles families have changed
long and anti-social stabilised. White collar mean that people are their lifestyles
hours. crime is endemic. fitter and healthier significantly, travelling
- Growing acceptance - There is an uneasy and consuming less
drugs to aid individual divide between rural - High carbon users (air
competitiveness and to and urban areas passengers, for
combat stress - a example) are villified by
pervasive issue society
- A growing sense of the
need to stop and smell
the roses
Transport Activity Transport Activity Transport Activity Transport Activity
- Different organisations - Energy efficiency - Unrestricted personal
- Modes are highly run different bits of the matters more than mobility is a distant
interconnected; travel infrastructure – speed memory.
systems are highly integration is poor
adaptive - Low value freight is - Home working creates
- People travel less - and moved by water; high high demand for local
- On-board driver only if transport is clean value freight by rail low carbon transport
assistance is used to and green. infrastructure. Biofuel
support and enhance - Cross (regional) border
- Walking and cycling travel incurs a tariff - a buses are popular
decision making
have increased; public major source of income - In-car technology shows
- Automated highway transport systems are economic and
systems and new - Remaining are powered
based on light rail and by steam and used environmental costs of
energy sources greatly electric vehicles travel. Road use is
increase traffic volume, mainly for commercial
- Private vehicles utilise purposes charged on a pay as
speed and distance you drive basis
traveled renewable energy and - Regions with access to
biofuels renewable power and - Real time management
- The rail network is systems direct vehicles
expanding – most new - Long distance travel is good storage devices
harder, more expensive are able to run limited via the lowest impact
investment is in long route
distance travel. Short and less common public transportation
journeys dominated by systems - Trains are
- Aviation is
light rail, taxibuses and environmentally costly - - Local transport is mainly environmentally friendly
car trains and used sparingly by human power or by but the network is
horse stretched to capacity
- Air travel is severely
curbed - Air transport is heavily
taxed and restricted
- Recreational travel is
popular. Long haul
journeys are by train or
night rider
Scenario Planning
Health impacts Health impacts Health impacts Health impacts

- Economic growth drives - Physical activity through - Declining health across - Marked reductions in
health improvement but active travel has society, at its worst in socio-economic
masks significant resulted in a healthier, deprived groups, with inequalities (globally as
inequalities less obese population widening inequalities well as locally) with
consequent health
- Access to goods and - Localisation provides - People lead active benefits
services is excellent for convenient access to lifestyles, with high
most people but poor for goods and services for levels of physical - Reduced vehicle
disadvantaged groups urban population, but activity and low levels of speeds, coupled with
access is poor for those obesity; without this technology, have led to
- Few opportunities for
in rural areas health status would be lower levels of traffic
physical activity,
even lower injuries
including through - Clean and pleasant
walking and cycling; environment with low - Violent society with - Growth in active travel
high obesity levels levels of pollution increases in both has increased levels of
continue to rise deliberate and physical activity,
- Prominence given to unintentional injuries although this has been
- In-vehicle safety highly active travel modes has partially offset by
developed but at the improved road safety - Poor access to goods increased (sedentary)
cost of increased and reduced transport and services, especially home working
danger for pedestrians deaths and injuries for people with mobility
and cyclists problems - Extreme weather has
- Strong local social significant impacts on
- Cleaner and quieter networks promote - Extreme weather is health, exacerbated by
vehicles, but increased healthy communities common and carbon constraints on
traffic volumes have communicable diseases
- Reductions in health energy for adapting to it
offset some of the are increasing
and social inequalities in through heating or
gains, with continued air
urban areas but - Environmental cooling
and noise pollution in
urban areas persistent rural degradation leads to - Rural areas face an
deprivation and isolation problems such as uncertain future
- High stress environment threats to water security
with limited
opportunities to escape - Poor healthcare
to the few remaining services with limited
peaceful rural areas resources and capacity
- Hypermobile society
weakens social
networks
Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Annex 2:
Slide set: Overview of the IIS Scenarios

Scenario Planning
Toolkit
The IIS Scenarios: Overview
Overview
Overview Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure
Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure
Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure

• The world has been through a sharp and savage oil Perpetual Motion
• shock
Instant communication and continued High Impact Low impact
globalisation have fuelled strong economic

Transport Transport
High Impact Low impact
Transport Transport
• The global
growth in aeconomic system isenvironment.
highly competitive severely damaged;
Tribal Trading
infrastructure is falling into disrepair Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure
Good Intentions Perpetual Motion

• Consumption is high; demand for travel remains Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure
Overview
• For many,
strong the world has shrunk to their own
communities Acceptingof
Accepting ofIntelligent
IntelligentInfrastructure
Infrastructure
• The drive for economic advantage - coupled with

• New cleaner fuel technologies are increasingly Good Intentions
the need
•• Following
Local to
foodroad change lifestyles
production
decades andinactivity
of servicesin order
have to global
reduce
overincreased
popular; use causes less damage - even HighImpact
Impact Low impact
impact
emissionsgovernments
- has led to an urban renaissance
High Low
Transport
High Impact warming, have been forced to act

Lowto
Transport Transport
impact
Transport
though
• There is volumes
very littleand
longspeed of
distance traffic
travel remain high
Transport prevent further carbon emissions Transport Urban Colonies
• Population, housing density and employment in the

•• Local
Aviation - which
transport still relies
is mainly on or
by bike carbon fuels - is
by horse Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure
Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure
big citieslifestyles
• People’s are risingare faster than before
determined by a strict and
expensive and increasingly replaced by
enforced scheme
telepresencing
• Planning of carbon
and rapid
policies, consumption
train travel
technology control
development and
investment
• • Biofuel is the are primarily
primarycapacity, focussed
alternative formon minimising
of energy
Increased nuclear
Tribal Trading Urbanswitch
Colonies to hydrogen
environmental impact. Cities are more compact
• Carseconomy
are lighter, smaller and more fuel efficient,
• Traffic
Transportvolumes
is permitted only iffallen
have green and andclean.massCar
use is restricted.
transportation is used Public
moretransport
widely - electric, low
energyResistant
- is widely used Infrastructure
to Intelligent
• Businesses have adopted energy-efficient
Perpetual Motion
Tribal Trading
• practices;
Travel within distribution and logistics is of
cities is efficient - integration wider
highly
infrastructure systems is poor
sophisticated
•• There
Rural areas
remainhave become
major moreabout
concerns isolated, effectively
whether the
actinghas
world as food
doneand bio-fuel
enough providers
to avert forcrisis
a major the cities
Good
UrbanIntentions
Colonies
Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Annex 3:
Slide set: Scenarios and their purpose

Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Scenarios and their purpose
ScenariosThe IIS scenarios

Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning
Toolkit Scenario Planning
Toolkit
 Stories that describe how things might be in the future

Š whatÕ •
s different Focus
from on how science and technology might be applied
today
Š what we need toto doinfrastructure
to be successful over the next 50 years
We can either stumble into the future and hope it
 turns
Based out
on anall A consultation
• analysis
right of
change
or we canprocess
try with
drivers and experts
shape from the research
it. To
A six step process
Scenario Planning
Toolkit community, business and public sector to identify key

 shape it, the first
Not predictions step is to work out what it might
or forecasts
drivers and uncertainties
 look
Help like.
decision makers imagine and manage the future
Š identify whatÕ
• Four scenarios
s in their control Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure
1. ŠIdentify
identify what isÕt driving change
what isn
Stephen Ladyman, J anuary 2006
Š identify what needs to change to ensure future success
2. Decide which change drivers are critical and uncertain Good Intentions Perpetual Motion
 Simplify some of the apparent complexity in the world

3. Construct a scenario matrix
High Impact Low impact
Transport Transport
4. Develop the scenarios
5. Identify the strategic issues which emerge from the discussion Tribal Trading Urban Colonies
6. Incorporate those issues into the strategic planning process Resistant to Intelligent Infrastructure
Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Annex 4:
Working with the scenarios: task sheets

Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Looking for Signals Task Sheet
Everyone in the group should collect – from the scenario matrix on the wall - one or
two of the articles you found that seem to be important for your area of work or for
your team
Tell each other about the articles and why you think they are important or interesting
Build clusters – or groups - of articles. The basis for clustering is to spot some kind of
connection or signal that is emerging from them
For each cluster of ‘abstracts’ that you generate
• Record the title of the cluster

• List the abstract (titles and sources) in your cluster
• Record any emerging futures issue
• Identify one or more ‘research topics’ for each
1 Looking for signals task sheet

Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Cluster Title
Article Titles/Headlines
Emerging futures issues
Research Topics

Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Cluster Title
Research Topics

Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Cluster Title
Research Topics

Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Fifth Scenario Task Sheet 1
1. Which scenario are you discussing_________________________
2. What do you like about the scenario? Not like?
LIKE NOT LIKE
1 Fifth scenario task sheet 1

Scenario Planning
Toolkit
3. What are the strengths and weaknesses of the scenario for transport. What are
the opportunities for your policy area that you need to capitalise on? What are the
threats you need to mitigate against?
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
OPPORTUNITIES THREATS

Scenario Planning
Toolkit
4. What are the key challenges and issues for you and your stakeholders in this
scenario?

Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Which group are you?
❐ Group 1
❐ Group 2
❐ Group 3
Group 1: identify – and map on the timeline – the 10 key steps or events required
to ensure that the ‘must happens’ occur
Group 2: identify – and map on a timeline - the 10 key steps or events required to
ensure that the ‘must not happens’ do not occur
Group 3: identify – and map on a timeline - the 10 key steps or events required to
ensure that the ‘would likes’ occur

Scenario Planning
Toolkit 2040
2040
2030
2020
2015
2007

Scenario Planning
Toolkit
Which group are you?
❐ Group 1
❐ Group 2
❐ Group 3
Group 1: Who is responsible for the must happens? What must they do now?
Who should be involved?
Group 2: Who is responsible for the must not happens? What must they do now?
Who should be involved?
Group 3: Who is responsible for the would like to happens? What must they do
now? Who should be involved?

Scenario Planning
Toolkit
1. Who has responsibility?
2. What needs to be done now?
3. Who else needs to be involved?

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Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning Toolkit

The scenario planning toolkit..................................................................................1

Annex 1: IIS scenarios Aide Memoire

The scenario planning toolkit

In 2006, Foresight1 launched the Intelligent Infrastructure

The project found that transport infrastructure will change

The toolkit is in four sections:

• About scenario planning offers a brief

The Annexes contain slides and other supporting material.

About scenario planning

Introduction.............................................................Error: Reference source not found

Toolkit About scenario planning

Who uses scenarios?

Scenarios are widely used by governments, businesses and voluntary organisations to

Toolkit About scenario planning

The UK Foresight Programme

The Foresight scenario methodology varies, but is largely workshop based,

The National Intelligence Council’s 2020 project

Toolkit About scenario planning

The Department for Trade and Industry

The first set of scenarios used in the

futurefocus has also produced scenarios on learning in the knowledge economy

Greater Pollok Development Company

Toolkit About scenario planning

Overview of the scenario process

Scenario planning is a flexible process that can be tailored to different circumstances

• Stage 1: identification and analysis of change

• Stage 2: identification of predetermined

• Stage 3: construction of the scenario matrix

• Stage 4: construction of the scenario narratives.

Stage 1: Identification and analysis of change drivers

It is therefore important during this stage of the scenario process to identify a

Toolkit About scenario planning

Stage 2: identification of predetermined elements and critical uncertainties

Stage 3: Construction of the scenario matrix

Stage 4: Construction of the scenario narratives

Wherever possible, stakeholders should be involved in testing and exploring the

Toolkit About scenario planning

The IIS scenarios

Introduction.............................................................Error: Reference source not found

Toolkit The IIS scenarios

The scenario matrix

The IIS scenarios are set along Accepting of Intelligent Infrastructure

two axes of uncertainty.

The vertical axis Accepting of Good Intentions Perpetual Motion

attitudes. At one extreme, the

Toolkit The IIS scenarios

Overview of the scenarios

Toolkit The IIS scenarios

Although intelligent infrastructure is widely deployed, it is not integrated. There

Toolkit The IIS scenarios

At a national level, much of the implementation is based on satellite surveillance

One of the biggest incentives to change behaviour and reduce carbon

Toolkit The IIS scenarios

Presenting the scenarios

Working with the scenarios

Plausibility matrix....................................................Error: Reference source not found

Toolkit Working with the scenarios

Toolkit Working with the scenarios