Rare Earths

Outlook to 2030, 20th Edition

 The Inside View
Report Contents Geopolitical risk and Security-of-Supply
The dominance of China in the rare earths industry has long been identified
1. Executive Summary
by other major markets, though the implementation of strategies to reduce
2. Supply Chain Flowchart dependency on Chinese supplies has gathered pace since mid-2019, with
3. World Production direct involvement by US, Russian, EU and Japanese governance. The impact of
4. Production Costs the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has highlighted further the dependency of RE
5. World Consumption consumers outside of China on Chinese derived supply, though has also raised
concerns within the Chinese domestic market regarding the availability of
6. International Trade
suitable feedstock leading some Chinese-based processors to look increasingly
7. Prices to imports. Whilst China retains its dominant position in both rare earth supply
8. Outlook and demand, the increase in non-Chinese affiliated mine and refined rare
9. Background earth production is a key trend, required not only to meet increasing global
10. Sustainability
demand, but to fulfil the changing requirements of downstream consumers
with regards to security of supply and ESG regulation. Roskill’s Rare Earths
11. Country Profiles
Market Outlook report to 2030 provides a detailed analysis of the complete
12. Company Profiles rare earths industry, allowing the reader to quickly comprehend market
13. Consumption by First Use dynamics, and understand with confidence future supply, demand and pricing
to identify key opportunities.

Chinese dominance continues

In 2020, Chinese mine production of rare earths is expected to reach 110kt,
falling back from 2019, though continuing to represent >55% of global mine
output. Production at both the mining and refined stages is controlled by
quotas assigned to six state-owned enterprises, which are highly integrated
throughout the rare earth supply chain. Non-Chinese mine production
has increased significantly since 2015, with multiple producers achieving
production of rare earth mineral concentrates as of 2020, though much of this
feedstock is destined for the Chinese domestic market.

Green applications underpin demand growth

The demand for rare earth elements is predominantly in the form of
separated rare earth elements, as most end-use applications require only one
or two separated rare earth compounds or products. Whilst growth in rare
earth demand is expected to fall back in 2020, as a result of COVID19 related
disruptions to industrial production, a strong recovery in demand is forecast
in 2021, increasing by 10% y-on-y. The recovery and subsequent demand

Roskill: Rare earth demand by application, 2019 (%)

 growth are underpinned by a ‘Green Agenda’ which neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (Pr), dysprosium
is being targeted by many national governments (Dy), along with other elements used at fillers such
and international bodies looking to reduce carbon- as cerium (Ce) and gadolinium (Gd). Roskill’s Rare
emissions. Rare earth products are widely used in Earths Market Outlook report to 2030 provides
the generation of renewable energy and in zero- a detailed breakdown of demand, evaluating
low emissions transport, via the use of rare earth industry and technological trends and their impact
permanent magnets in wind turbines and in the on the consumption of each element by end-use
drive train of hybrid and electric vehicles. market. By 2030, rare earth magnet applications
are forecast to account for ~40% of total demand,
Tight supply expected towards 2030 raising potential for a tight supply-demand balance
Rare earth permanent magnet applications are for key magnetic rare earth elements, providing
expected to form 29% of total demand in 2020, opportunity for new production capacity to be
the largest single end use, consuming a mixture of financed, constructed and commissioned.

Roskill experts will answer your questions... Subscribe now and receive:
• How will the development of regional • Detailed report with ten-year forecasts
supply chains impact supply availability? for demand, supply and prices
• Who are the major producers of light • Access to the report via Roskill
and heavy rare earths globally? Interactive for up to 5 users
• Where will new sources of mined and • Access to Roskill specialists for
refined rare earth supply come from? key market queries
• How will prices of rare earths • Quarterly updates to keep you up to speed
products perform to 2030? on our latest view of the industry
• What is the impact of the COVID-19 • Option to download tables and
pandemic on the rare earth industry? graphs from the report
• How will growth in green technologies impact • A summary PowerPoint of key report findings
long-term rare earth demand growth?
• Which rare earth products will be
required by key end-use applications?
• How important will secondary sources
of rare earths products become?

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