Am An
Am An
Am An
ECONOMIC SCENARIO
Submitted By:
Amandeep Saini
(Roll no-7065222359)
First of all I would like to thank The Almighty for his blessing for
completing this project successfully.
I would like to extend my sincere thanks to Dr. A.N Garg for providing me
articulate guidance and ceaseless encouragement throughout my project.
Last but not the least, I also express my grateful thanks to my friends for
giving their valuable suggestions to make this project to success.
AMANDEEP SAINI
CERTIFICATE OF COMPLETION
(Project Guide)
DECLARATION
I hereby declare that the work, which is being presented in the project report “STOCK
Amandeep Saini
(7065222359)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This project investigates the nature of the causal relationship between stock prices and
macroeconomic aggregates in India. By applying the technique of correlation, the causal
relationship between the BSE Sensitive Index and the key macroeconomic variables, viz.,
Money supply, Index of industrial production, Per capita income, GDP at factor cost,
Exchange rate, Net domestic savings using the data from 1995-96 to 2008-09 is being
tested. And likewise the correlation is applied between S&P CNX NIFTY and above
mentioned key macroeconomic variables.
(AMANDEEP SAINI)
INDEX
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I
CERTIFICATE OF COMPLETION II
DECLARATION III
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY IV
INTRODUCTION
1. 1
An Indian Economy
1.3 6
Financial Market
1.4 28
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
2 36
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3 38
CONCLUSION
5 57
6 BIBLIOGRAPHY 58
7 ANNEXURE 59
Chapter- 1
AN
INTRODUCTIOn
It is needless to say that the securities markets, finance, economic growth There have a
number of studies, starting from World Bank and IMF to various scholars, which have
established robust relationship not only one way, but also the both ways, between the
development in the securities market and the economic growth. As market gets disciplined /
developed/ efficient, it avoids the allocation of scarce savings to low yielding enterprises and
forces the enterprises to focus on their performance which is being continuously evaluated
through share prices in the market and which faces the threat of takeover. Thus securities
market converts a given stock of investible resources to a larger flow of goods and services.
The securities market fosters economic growth to the extent that it:-
(a) Augments the quantities of real savings and capital formation from any given level of
national income.
(b) Increases net capital inflow from abroad.
(c) Raises the productivity of investment by improving allocation of investible funds.
(d) Reduces the cost of capital.
The securities market facilitates the internationalization of an economy by linking it with the
rest of the world. This linkage assists through the inflow of capital in the form of portfolio
investment. Moreover, a strong domestic stock market performance forms the basis for well
performing domestic corporate to raise capital in the international market. This implies that
the domestic economy is opened up to international competitive pressures, which help to
raise efficiency.
In as much as the securities market enlarges the financial sector, promoting additional and
more sophisticated financing, it increases opportunities for specialization, division of labour
and reductions in costs in financial activities. The securities market and its institutions help
the user in many ways to reduce the cost of capital. They provide a convenient market place
to which investors and issuers of securities go and thereby avoid the need to search a suitable
counterpart. The market provides standardized products and thereby cuts the information
costs associated with individual instruments. The market institutions specialize and operate
on large scale which cuts costs through the use of tested procedures and routines.
CAPITAL MARKET:-
Progress on developing India’s capital market, which is becoming more competitive, deep
and developed as on international markets standards. Business in the country’s oldest stock
exchange, namely the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) dating back to 1875, which is also one
of the oldest stock exchanges in the world, continued to thrive. The National Stock Exchange
(NSE), which emerged in the mid-1990s and catalyzed improvements in trading systems to
provide the necessary depth and choice to investors, made sustained progress. With the BSE
and NSE emerging as the two apex institutions of the country’s capital market, restructuring
of other stock exchanges went apace. Overseen by Securities and Exchange Board of India
(SEBI), an independent statutory regulatory authority, the country’s capital market dealt in
scrips of a large number of listed companies with a wide geographical outreach, providing a
world class trading and settlement system, a wide range of product availability with a fast
growing derivatives market, and well laid down corporate governance and investor protection
measures.
As a part of the on-going financial and regulatory reforms of the primary and secondary
market segments of the capital market, a number of initiatives were taken in 2007-08 and the
current year so far. These measures are designed to attain the stability in current turmoil and
to keep the pace of economic growth and keep the confidence of investors (both domestic and
foreign) in the country’s capital market. The stock market scaled new peaks year after year
since 2003, with the BSE and NSE indices crossing the 20,000 and 5,000 marks, respectively,
in January 2008 but after it came under the direct impact global slowdown and stock index
have shown the steep downfall to 8000 and 2700 respectively and failure of US investment
banks also contributed to downfall.
The informational efficiency of major stock markets has been extensively examined through
the study of causal relations between stock price indices and macroeconomic aggregates. The
findings of these studies are important since informational inefficiency in stock market
implies on the one hand, that market participants are able to develop profitable trading rules
and thereby can consistently earn more than average market returns, and on the other hand,
that the stock market is not likely to play an effective role in channeling financial resources to
the most productive sectors of the economy.
The securities market allows people to do more with their savings than they would otherwise.
It also allows people to do more with their ideas and talents than would otherwise be
possible. The people’s savings are matched with the best ideas and talents in the economy.
Stated formally, the securities market provides a linkage between the savings and the
preferred investment across the entities, time and space. It mobilizes savings and channelises
them through securities into preferred enterprises.
The securities market enables all individuals, irrespective of their means, to share the
increased wealth provided by competitive enterprises. The securities market allows
individuals who cannot carry an activity in its entirety within their resources to invest
whatever is individually possible and preferred in that activity carried on by an enterprise.
Conversely, individuals who cannot begin an enterprise they like can attract enough
investment form others to make a start and continue to progress and prosper. In either case,
individuals who contribute to the investment share the fruits.
The securities market also provides a market place for purchase and sale of securities and
thereby ensures transferability of securities, which is the basis for the joint stock enterprise
system. The liquidity available to investors does not inconvenience the enterprises that
originally issued the securities to raise funds. The existence of the securities market makes it
possible to satisfy simultaneously the needs of the enterprises for capital and of investors for
liquidity.
The liquidity the market confers and the yield promised or anticipated on security encourages
people to make additional savings out of current income. In the absence of the securities
market, the additional savings would have been consumed otherwise. Thus the provision of
securities market results in net savings.
The securities market enables a person to allocate his savings among a number of
investments. This helps him to diversify risks among many enterprises, which increases the
likelihood of long term overall gains.
The securities market promotes economic growth. More efficient is the securities market, the
greater is the promotion effect on economic growth. It is, therefore, necessary to ensure that
our securities market is efficient, transparent and safe. In this direction, SEBI has been
working since its inception and would continue to work to continuously improve market
design to bring in further efficiency and transparency to market and make available newer
and newer products to meet the varying needs of market participants, while protecting
investors in securities. The aim is to make Indian securities market a model for other
jurisdictions to follow and make SEBI the most dynamic and respected regulator globally.
These measures would definitely improve efficiency of the market leading to higher
economic growth.
INDIAN ECONOMY
The economy of India is the fourth largest in the world as measured by purchasing power
parity (PPP). Consistent growth with strong macroeconomic fundamentals has characterized
developments in the Indian economy in 2008-09 so far. However, there are some genuine
concerns on the inflation front earlier which was controlled later. Growth of 8.5 per cent in
2007-08 and the estimates for the current year 2008-09 is around 7.5 per cent but global
estimates for imdian economy is around 5.5 per cent . While the up-and-down pattern in
agriculture continued with growth estimated at 6.0 per cent and 2.7 per cent in the two recent
years, and services maintained its vigorous growth performance, there were distinct signs of
sustained improvements on the industrial front. Entrenchment of the higher growth trends,
particularly in manufacturing, has boosted sentiments, both within the country and abroad.
The overall macroeconomic fundamentals are satisfactory, even in the global meltdown and
period of fall industrial growth the economy is generating the 7.5 percent growth shows the
strength of the fundamentals.
The economy is diverse and encompasses agriculture, handicrafts, textile, manufacturing, and
a multitude of services. Although two-thirds of the Indian workforce still earn their livelihood
directly or indirectly through agriculture, services are a growing sector and are playing an
increasingly important role of India's economy. The advent of the digital age, and the large
number of young and educated populace fluent in English, is gradually transforming India as
an important 'back office' destination for global companies for the outsourcing of their
customer services and technical support. India is a major exporter of highly-skilled workers
in software and financial services, and software engineering.
1. OVERALL ECONOMY:
Advance estimates of GDP for the year 2008-09 shows that GDP is slated to grow by 8.5 per
cent. This growth will be primarily led by the industry, manufacturing and services sectors.
The Industrial growth is expected to remain at about 10 per cent for the current fiscal,
manufacturing sector and the services sector are likely to achieve 11.3% and 11.18% growth
respectively. However, the agriculture sector will expand by a merge 2.7 per cent as per the
most of forecasted figures.
Advance estimates of GDP for the year 2008-09 shows that GDP is slated to grow by 8.5 per
cent. This growth will be primarily led by the industry, manufacturing and services sectors.
The Industrial growth is expected to remain at about 10 per cent for the current fiscal with the
manufacturing sector and the services sector likely to achieve 11.3 per cent and 11.18 per
cent growth. However, the agriculture sector will expand by a merge 2.7 per cent in 2008-09
Table 1: Real GDP Growth (%)
Sector First Half Year
(April-September)
2007-08 2008-09
Agriculture 4.5 2.9
Industry 9.1 5.0
Services 10.6 9.9
Overall 9.3 7.8
2. INDUSTRIAL GROWTH:
The General Index stands at 267.2, which is 2.4% higher as compared to the level in the
month of November 2007. The cumulative growth for the period April-November 2008-09
stands at 3.9% over the corresponding period of the pervious year. The Indices of Industrial
Production for the Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity sectors for the month of November
2008 stand at 175.0, 285.7, and 217.5 respectively, with the corresponding growth rates of
0.5%, 2.4% and 3.1% as compared to November 2007. The cumulative growth during April-
November, 2008-09 over the corresponding period of 2007-08 in the three sectors have been
3.4%, 4.0% and 2.9% respectively, which moved the overall growth in the General Index to
3.9%.In terms of industries, as many as ten (10) out of the seventeen (17) industry groups (as
per 2-digit NIC-1987) have shown positive growth during the month of November 2008 as
compared to the corresponding month of the previous year. The industry group ‘Rubber,
Plastic, Petroleum and Coal Products’ have shown the highest growth of 30.7%, followed by
14.5% in ‘Beverages, Tobacco and Related Products’ and 8.7% in ‘Wood and Wood
Products; Furniture and Fixtures’. On the other hand, the industry group ‘Other
Manufacturing Industries’ have shown a negative growth of 16.9% followed by 13.1% in
‘Leather and Leather & Fur Products‘and 11.4% in ‘Wool, Silk and Man-made Fibre Textiles
’.As per Use-based classification, the Sectoral growth rates in November 2008 over
November 2007 are 2.3% in Basic goods, (-)2.3% in Capital goods and 2.6% in Intermediate
goods. The Consumer durables and Consumer non-durables have recorded growth of (-)4.2%
and 7.3% respectively, with the overall growth in Consumer goods being 4.4%.Alongwith the
Quick Estimates of IIP for November 2008, the indices for October 2008 have undergone the
first revision and those for August 2008 have undergone the second (final) revision in the
light of the updated data received from the source agencies. (It may be noted that revised
indices (first revision) in respect of September 2008 have already been released in December
2008 and these indices shall undergo final (second) revision in February 2009).Statements
giving Quick Estimates of the Index of Industrial Production at Sectoral, 2-digit level of
National Industrial Classification (NIC)-1987 and by Use-based classification for the month
of November 2008, along with the growth rates over the corresponding month of previous
year, including the cumulative indices and growth rates, are enclosed.
1 Mining & Quarrying 104.7 174.2 175.0 162.3 167.8 0.5 3.4
2-3 Manufacturing 793.6 278.9 285.7 276.7 287.9 2.4 4.0
4 Electricity 101.7 210.9 217.5 216.4 222.6 3.1 2.9
(Base : 1993-94=100)
Basic goods Capital goods Intermediate goods
Month (355.65) (92.57) (265.14)
2007-2008 2008-2009 2007-2008 2008-2009 2007-2008 2008-2009
Apr 212.8 221.3 278.4 313.0 249.2 256.9
May 223.6 230.4 334.7 349.0 264.2 269.1
Jun 215.8 220.5 358.3 386.3 260.1 267.5
Jul 216.7 228.2 317.4 374.3 264.1 271.9
Aug 217.6 226.0 368.6 372.0 273.3 258.3
Sep 214.0 223.8 389.1 461.3 264.8 258.0
Oct 227.2 234.3 350.8 361.1 260.5 250.1
Nov* 220.8 225.9 392.1 383.2 255.7 262.3
Dec 230.0 420.5 271.7
Jan 235.2 340.0 266.6
Feb 226.4 356.8 259.4
Mar 246.3 543.4 279.3
Average
(Base : 1993-94=100)
Consumer goods Consumer durables Consumer non-durables
Month (286.64) (53.65) (232.99)
2007-2008 2008-2009 2007-2008 2008-2009 2007-2008 2008-2009
Apr 290.9 315.6 341.8 352.9 279.2 307.0
May 288.8 310.3 380.3 391.0 267.7 291.7
Jun 266.9 293.2 357.9 374.4 246.0 274.5
Jul 274.5 290.8 351.5 400.5 256.8 265.6
Aug 266.8 283.9 379.7 394.5 240.8 258.4
Sep 273.4 293.2 388.9 445.7 246.8 258.1
Oct 280.6 274.5 431.9 418.7 245.8 241.3
Nov* 273.5 285.6 368.4 353.1 251.7 270.0
Dec 320.8 353.7 313.2
Jan 335.2 383.4 324.1
Feb 327.6 389.6 313.3
Mar 324.0 408.4 304.6
Average
3. TELECOMMUNICATIONS:
The telecommunication sector is growing at a phenomenal rate. Soon, in a month’s time, This
rise in the total phone subscription to 400 million is on the back of additions seen in the
mobile phones growing at the rate of 4-5% every month.15.41 million wireless subscribers
added in the January 2009 Teledensity already achieved 34.5 mark this month.
Net addition of wireless and fixed line subscribers in the January 2009 was 15.26 million,
which is almost 1.5 times greater as compared to the addition of 10.66 million in the
corresponding period of last year.
Table-3.1 - Growth of the telecommunication network (in million) April-January
Fixed line Cellular mobile
(including WLL phones Total phones
fixed) (including WLL
mobile)
1997-98 17.8 0.9 18.7
1998-99 21.6 1.2 22.8
1999-00 26.8 1.9 28.7
2000-01 33.0 3.6 36.6
2001-02 39.1 6.4 45.6
2002-03 41.5 13.0 54.5
2003-04 42.6 33.6 76.2
2004-05 45.9 52.2 98.1
2005-06 49.7 90.0 139.8
2006-07 40.4 156.3 196.7
4. INFLATION TRENDS:
Wholesale price index (WPI), fell by more than half from its intra-year peak of 12.91 per cent
on August 2, 2008 to 5.60 per cent by January 10, 2009. While prices of primary articles and
manufactured products increased, fuel prices declined (Table 2). In terms of relative
contribution to decelerating headline inflation between August 2, 2008 and January 10, 2009,
petroleum and basic metals (combined weight of 13.2 per cent in WPI) together accounted
for 79.4 per cent, followed by ‘oilseeds, edible oils & oil cakes’ (16.4 per cent). Clearly, the
fall in commodity prices reflecting global trends has been the key driver of the sharp fall in
WPI inflation although effective management of domestic demand too has contributed to this
moderation.
Table 2: Annual Inflation Rate (%)
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) January 12, 2008January 10, 2009
(y-o-y) (y-o-y)
WPI - All Commodities 4.36 5.60
WPI - Primary Articles 4.49 11.64
WPI - Fuel Group 3.69 -1.32
WPI - Manufactured Products 4.57 5.90
WPI - Excluding Fuel 4.55 7.53
WPI - Excluding Food and Fuel 5.21 6.52
Consumer Price Index (CPI) December 2007December 2008
(y-o-y) (y-o-y)
1. CPI for Industrial Workers* 5.51 10.45
2. CPI for Agricultural Labourers 5.90 11.14
3. CPI for Rural Labourers 5.63 11.14
4. CPI for Urban Non-Manual Employees*5.06 10.79
* Pertains to November.
On the other hand, inflation based on various consumer price indices (CPIs) is still in double
digits due to the firm trend in prices of food articles and the higher weight of food articles in
measures of consumer price inflation (Table 2). As the decline in input prices percolates over
time to the prices of manufactured and other products, consumer price inflation too is
expected to soften in the months ahead. For its overall assessment of inflation outlook for
policy purposes, the Reserve Bank continues to monitor the full Array of price indicators.
5. MONETARY INDICATORS:
Growth in key monetary aggregates – reserve money and money supply (M3) – in 2008-09
so far has reflected the changing liquidity positions arising from domestic and global
financial conditions and the monetary policy response to the evolving macroeconomic
developments. Reserve money variations during 2008-09 have largely reflected increase in
currency in circulation and reduction in the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of banks. Reduction in
the CRR has three inter-related effects on reserve money. First, it reduces reserve money as
bankers’ required cash deposits with the Reserve Bank fall. Second, the money multiplier
rises. Third, with the increase in the money multiplier, M3expands with a lag. While the
initial expansionary effect is strong, the full effect is felt in 4-6 months. Reflecting these
changes, while the year-on-year increase in reserve money as on January 2, 2009 was lower,
it was significantly higher when adjusted for the first round effect of CRR reduction. The
annual M3 growth as on January 2, 2009 though lower compared with last year, was higher
than the trajectory projected in the Annual Policy Statement (Table 4).
7. FISCAL TRENDS:
As a proportion of the budget estimates (BE), both tax and non-tax revenue receipts of the
Central Government for the period April-November 2008 were lower than those in the
corresponding period of the previous year. On the other hand, both revenue expenditure and
total expenditure, as a proportion to the BE, were higher than a year ago. Consequently, the
revenue deficit and the gross fiscal deficit (GFD) were significantly higher during April-
November 2008 as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year (Table 3).
Table 3: Fiscal Position of the Central Government
Item April-November
Percentage to Budget Estimates Growth (%)
2007-08 2008-09 2007-08 2008-09
1. Revenue Receipts 56.5 52.2 24.2 14.7
2. Gross Tax Revenue 55.5 52.0 25.2 17.5
3. Tax Revenue (Net) 54.6 50.0 24.5 15.1
4. Non-Tax Revenue 65.7 64.1 22.7 13.2
5. Total Expenditure 60.5 65.8 22.2 20.1
(58.7) (11.7) (31.5)
6. Revenue Expenditure 61.8 69.3 12.7 32.4
7. Capital Expenditure 54.5 40.7 116.3 -43.4
(37.8) (1.2) (21.0)
8. Revenue Deficit 97.9 256.2 -17.2 102.0
9. Fiscal Deficit 63.8 132.4 -11.0 83.3
(63.0) (-12.2) (85.7)
Note : Figures in parentheses are net of transactions relating to transfer of the
Reserve Bank’s stake in State Bank of India to the Government.
For 2008-09, the Central Government had budgeted gross market borrowing
of Rs.1,78,575 crore and net market borrowing of Rs.99,000 crore. Subsequently, the
Government presented two supplementary demands, as a result of which the market
borrowing programme of the Central Government was raised to Rs.2,52,154 crore (gross) and
Rs.1,75,374 crore (net). Against this enhanced borrowing programme, market borrowing of
the Central Government was Rs.2,22,154 crore (gross) and Rs.1,51,697 crore (net) during
2008-09 so far (up to January 23, 2009). The weighted average yield and weighted average
maturity of central government dated securities issued during 2008-09 (up to January 23,
2009) were at 8.03 per cent and 14.59 years respectively as compared with 8.10 per cent and
14.38 years in 2007-08. The State Governments have borrowed a net amount of Rs.46,327
crore up to January 23, 2009.
The evolving scenario raises some concerns on the extent of stress on the fisc in the
current year emanating from several factors. First, the Centre is expected to suffer revenue
losses from lower direct tax collection on account of the economic slowdown. Second, the
Centre is likely to lose further revenues worth about 0.6 per cent of GDP due to cuts in excise
and customs duties. Third, there has been a disproportionate growth in expenditure of the
Central Government during April-November 2008, particularly in respect of revenue
expenditure arising out of increase in subsidies, disbursements as well as implementation of
the recommendations of the Sixth Pay Commission and the farm debt waiver scheme. The net
cash outgo indicated in supplementary demands for grants would be of the order of 2.8 per
cent of GDP (Rs.1,50,310 crore). Thus, additional expenditure coupled with foregone
revenue would raise the fiscal deficit from the budget estimate of 2.5 per cent to at least 5.9
per cent of GDP. In addition, special bonds for Rs.44,000
crore and Rs.14,000 crore, amounting to 1.1 per cent of GDP, have been issued to oil
marketing companies and fertiliser companies respectively during 2008-09 (up to January 23,
2009). In its latestReview of the Economy (January 2009), the Economic Advisory Council to
the Prime Minister has placed the consolidated fiscal deficit of the Central Government,
including full issuances of oil and fertiliser bonds, at 8.0 per cent of GDP for 2008-09.
The consolidated budgeted revenue surplus of the States in 2008-09 may not, in fact,
materialise. Consequently, the consolidated fiscal deficit of the States is expected to rise to
2.6 per cent of GDP. While some of the increase in the revenue and fiscal deficits is on
account of post-budget expenditure commitments such as payment of arrears resulting from
the Sixth Pay Commission Award, a substantial increase is also due to the economic
downturn arising from the impact of the global financial crisis. Although the fiscal stimulus
packages have meant deviation from the roadmap laid out by the Fiscal Responsibility and
Budget Management (FRBM) Act, reversing the consolidation process of the last several
years, they were warranted under the prevailing circumstances. It is critically important,
however, that the Centre and States re-anchor to a revised FRBM mandate once the
immediacy of the crisis is behind us
8. FOREIGN TRADE:
India’s current account deficit (CAD) of the balance of payments (BoP) widened in the
first half of 2008-09 in comparison with the corresponding period of the previous year
due to a large trade deficit, reflecting high oil prices even as private transfers and software
export earnings were sustained. As net capital flows declined sharply, the overall balance
of payments position turned marginally negative during the first half of 2008-09 as
against a large surplus in the corresponding period of the previous year (Table 12). Import
growth had moderated during October-November 2008 reflecting the fall in international
oil prices and slowing domestic demand. During the same period, export growth turned
negative reflecting slowing global demand. Going forward, it is expected that imports
may slow down faster than exports.
The reversal of capital flows has raised concerns about management of the
BoP, particularly with reference to outstanding external debt with residual maturity of less
than one year. These concerns are somewhat misplaced as the following analysis will show.
India’s external debt with residual maturity of less than one year as at end-March 2008 was
estimated at around US $ 85 billion (as per revised data), which would mature during the
financial year 2008-09. Sovereign debt and commercial borrowings are most likely to be
rolled over during 2008-09. Indeed, the BoP data for the first half of the year (April-
September 2008) indicate net positive accretions beyond roll-over under both these heads.
Current trends indicate that under NRI deposits, not only will the maturing debt be rolled
over but there will be net accretions as a result of the upward adjustment in interest rate
ceilings on such deposits. Here again, available data up to December 2008 show net
accretions. That leaves trade credit of the order of US $ 43.2 billion to be repaid during 2008-
09. Of this, as much as US $ 28.1 billion has already been disbursed during April-November
2008 leaving a balance of US $ 15.1 billion. There are reports that large inflows are in the
pipeline on account of commitments of buyers’ credit by the importers and oil companies.
Even conservatively projecting that only a small portion of this balance would be rolled over,
India’s external payment situation remains stable.
9. CAPITAL INFLOWS:
Net capital flows during 2008-09 were lower than those in the corresponding period of 2007-
08, mainly on account of outflows by foreign institutional investors ($7.3 billion) during
2008-09 (up to October 10, 2008) in contrast to net FII inflows ($ 18.9 billion) during the
corresponding period of 2007-08. On the other hand, net FDI flows into India were placed
higher at $16.7 billion during April-August 2008 against $8.5 billion during April-August
2007. The funds raised through issuances of ADRs/GDRs abroad were at $1.1 billion during
April-August 2008 ($2.8 billion in April-August 2007). NRI deposits recorded a net inflow of
$273 million during April-August 2008 mainly due to inflows under the rupee deposit
accounts as against a net outflow ($168 million) during April-August 2007, said the report.
With net capital flows being higher than the current account deficit, the overall balance of
payments recorded a surplus of $2.2 billion during the first quarter of 2008-09 ($11.2 billion
in the first quarter of 2007-08).
Credit
Public Sector Banks 19.8 28.6
Foreign Banks 30.7 16.9
Private Sector Banks 24.2 11.8
Scheduled Commercial Banks * 21.4 24.0
* Including regional rural banks (RRBs).
Commercial banks’ holdings of SLR securities became more liquid on account of two
factors. First, banks were permitted to use SLR securities to the tune of 1.5 per cent of their
net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) under the LAF to meet the funding requirements of
mutual funds, non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) and housing finance companies
(HFCs). Second, the reduction in SLR by one percentage point to 24.0 per cent of NDTL in
November 2008 released funds for credit deployment. Commercial banks’ SLR holdings
declined from 27.8 per cent (28.4 per cent adjusted for LAF) of NDTL in March 2008 to 25.8
per cent (28.1 per cent adjusted for LAF) in mid-October 2008 reflecting the banks’ reliance
on the repo facility under the LAF as liquidity conditions tightened. Reversing this trend by
early January 2009, banks’ SLR holdings increased to 28.9 per cent of NDTL (27.1 per cent
adjusted for LAF) reflecting improved liquidity conditions and increased government market
borrowings. Bank deposit and lending rates, which had firmed up during the current financial
year up to October 2008, started easing from November 2008. Between November 2008 and
January 2009, all public sector banks, several private sector banks and some foreign banks
reduced their deposit and lending rates. The magnitude of reduction by public sector banks
was larger than that by foreign and private sector banks (Table 9).
The interest rate response to monetary policy easing has been faster in the money and bond
markets as compared to the credit market because of several structural factors. First, the
administered interest rate structure on small savings could potentially constrain the reduction
in deposit rates below some threshold. Second, a substantial portion of bank deposits is
mobilised at fixed interest rates with an asymmetric contractual relationship. During the
upturn of the interest rate cycle, depositors have the flexibility to prematurely terminate the
existing deposits and re-deposit the funds at higher interest rates. However, in the downturn
of the interest rate cycle, banks have to necessarily carry these deposits at higher rates of
interest till their maturity. Third, competition among banks for wholesale deposits for
meeting the higher credit demand in the upswing leads to an increase in the cost of funds.
Fourth, linkage of concessional lending rates to banks’ BPLRs makes overall lending rates
less flexible. Fifth, persistence of the large market borrowing programme of the government
hardens interest rate expectations. Sixth, with increase in risk aversion, lending rates tend to
be high even during a period with falling credit demand. From the real economy perspective,
however, for monetary policy to have demand inducing effects, lending rates will have to
come down.
Notwithstanding the various factors that impede monetary transmission, market interest rates
do respond to changes in policy interest rates. As such, current deposit and lending rates have
significant room for further reduction. Interest rates in the money and bond markets have
already declined perceptibly since their peaks in October 2008 (Table 10). Major public
sector banks have also reduced their term deposit rates in the range of 50-150 basis points.
Benchmark prime lending rates (BPLRs) of major public sector banks have come down by
150-175 basis points. Major private sector banks have reduced their BPLRs by 50 basis
points, while major foreign banks are yet to do so. As a result of several measures initiated by
the Reserve Bank since mid-September 2008, banks’ cost of funds would come down. This
should encourage banks to reduce their lending rates in the coming months.
At the heart of the global financial crisis lie the non-functional and frozen financial markets.
In sharp contrast to their international counterparts, the financial system in India has been
resilient and stable. Barring some tightness in liquidity during mid-September to early
October, the money, foreign exchange and government securities markets have been orderly
as reflected in market rates, spreads and transaction volumes relative to those observed during
normal times. India’s banking system remains healthy, well-capitalised, resilient and
profitable. Credit markets have been functioning well and banks have been expanding credit,
notwithstanding the perceptions in some quarters of lack of adequate credit from the banks to
the commercial sector. Over the last five years, India clocked 8.8 per cent average annual
growth, driven largely by domestic consumption and investment even as the share of net
exports rose. While the benign global environment, easy liquidity and low interest rates
helped, at the heart of India’s growth have been its growing entrepreneurial spirit and rise in
productivity. These fundamental strengths continue to be in place. Nevertheless, the global
crisis will dent India’s growth trajectory as investments and exports slow. Clearly, there is a
period of painful adjustment ahead of us. However, once the global economy begins to
recover, India’s turnaround will be sharper and swifter, backed by our strong fundamentals
and the untapped growth potential. Meanwhile, the challenge for the Government and the
Reserve Bank is to manage the adjustment with as little pain as possible.
Since September 2008, international developments have largely circumscribed domestic
policy responses. There have been severe disruptions in the international money and foreign
exchange markets since September 2008. Policymakers in governments, central banks and in
other regulating agencies of financial institutions around the world responded to the crisis
with aggressive, radical and unconventional measures to restore calm and confidence in
financial markets and bring them back to normalcy. The immediate challenge was to maintain
financial stability, which moved up in the hierarchy ofobjectives.
FINANCIAL MARKET:
It is needless to say that the financial markets (banks and the securities markets) finance
economic growth. They channelise savings to investments and thereby decouple these two
activities. As a result, savers and investors are not constrained by their individual abilities,
but by the economy’s ability to invest and save respectively, which inevitably enhances
savings and investment in the economy. To the extent the growth of an economy depends on
the rate of savings and investment, financial markets promote economic growth.
1. MONEY MARKET: Money market is a market for debt securities that pay off in the
short term usually less than one year, for example the market for 90-days treasury bills. This
market encompasses the trading and issuance of short term non equity debt instruments
including treasury bills, commercial papers, bankers acceptance, certificates of deposits, etc.
2. CAPITAL MARKET: Capital market is a market for long-term debt and equity
shares. In this market, the capital funds comprising of both equity and debt are issued and
traded. This also includes private placement sources of debt and equity as well as organized
markets like stock exchanges. Capital market can be further divided into primary and
secondary markets.
a.) PRIMARY MARKET: The primary is that part of the capital markets that deals
with the issuance of new securities. Companies, governments or public sector
institutions can obtain funding through the sale of a new stock or bond issue. This
is typically done through a syndicate of securities dealers. In the case of a new
stock issue, this sale is an initial public offering (IPO).
INTRODUCTION: For the premier Stock Exchange that pioneered the stock broking
activity in India, 128 years of experience seems to be a proud milestone. A lot has changed
since 1875 when 318 persons became members of what today is called "The Stock Exchange,
Mumbai" by paying a princely amount of Re1Since then, the country's capital markets have
passed through both good and bad periods. The journey in the 20th century has not been an
easy one. Till the decade of eighties, there was no scale to measure the ups and downs in the
Indian stock market. The Stock Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) in 1986 came out with a stock
index that subsequently became the barometer of the Indian stock market.SENSEX is not
only scientifically designed but also based on globally accepted construction and review
methodology. First compiled in 1986, SENSEX is a basket of 30 constituent stocks
representing a sample of large, liquid and representative companies. The base year of
SENSEX is 1978-79 and the base value is 100. The index is widely reported in both domestic
and international markets through print as well as electronic media.The Index was initially
calculated based on the "Full Market Capitalization" methodology but was shifted to the free-
float methodology with effect from September 1, 2003. The "Free-float Market
Capitalization" methodology of index construction is regarded as an industry best practice
globally.
SENSEX is calculated using the "Free-float Market Capitalization" methodology. As per this
methodology, the level of index at any point of time reflects the Free-float market value of 30
component stocks relative to a base period. The market capitalization of a company is
determined by multiplying the price of its stock by the number of shares issued by the
company. This market capitalization is further multiplied by the free-float factor to determine
the free-float market capitalization.
.
ORIGIN: The National Stock Exchange of India was promoted by leading financial
institutions at the behest of the Government of India, and was incorporated in November
1992 as a tax-paying company. In April 1993, it was recognized as a stock exchange under
the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956. NSE commenced operations in the
Wholesale Debt Market (WDM) segment in June 1994. The Capital Market (Equities)
segment of the NSE commenced operations in November 1994, while operations in the
Derivatives.
The National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE), is a Mumbai-based stock exchange.
It is the largest stock exchange in India and the third largest in the world in terms of volume
of transactions. NSE is mutually-owned by a set of leading financial institutions, banks,
insurance companies and other financial intermediaries in India but its ownership and
management operate as separate entities. As of 2006, the NSE VSAT terminals, 2799 in total,
cover more than 1500 cities across India. In March 2008, the NSE indices started crashing
due to global meltdown and sentiments and it led it from 6000 mark to back it at 2600 mark.
It is the second-largest stock market in South Asia in terms of market-capitalization.
INDICES: NSE also set up as index services firm known as India Index Services & Products
Limited (IISL) and has launched several stock indices, including:
• S&P CNX Nifty
• CNX Nifty Junior
• CNX 100 (= S&P CNX Nifty + CNX Nifty Junior)
• S&P CNX 500 (= CNX 100 + 400 major players across 72 industries)
• CNX Midcap (introduced on 18 July 2005 replacing CNX Midcap 200)
S&P CNX Nifty: The S&P CNX Nifty (nicknamed Nifty 50 or simply Nifty) (Ticker
NSE:^NSEI), is the leading index for large companies on the National Stock Exchange of
India. S&P CNX Nifty is a well diversified 50 stock index accounting for 22 sectors of the
economy. It is used for a variety of purposes such as benchmarking fund portfolios, index
based derivatives and index funds.
The rupee had appreciated against major currencies in 2007-08 due to large capital inflows. It
depreciated during 2008-09 so far reflecting extraordinary developments in international
financial markets and portfolio outflows by foreign institutional investors (FIIs). It has
remained range-bound since November 2008 (Table 11).
Equity markets weakened sharply till end-October 2008 in tandem with global stock markets,
particularly Asian markets, reflecting further deterioration in the global financial market
sentiment, FII outflows, slowdown in industrial growth and lower corporate profits. The BSE
Sensex declined from an all-time high of 20873 on January 8, 2008 to a low of 8451 on
November 20, 2008. The equity market has since remained generally range-bound; the BSE
Sensex was at 8674 on January 23, 2009. The outlook for the domestic financial markets will
be determined largely by the developments in global financial markets and domestic liquidity
conditions. The banking system has been in surplus liquidity mode since mid-November
2008. The pressure on the exchange rate of the rupee has eased due to moderation in capital
outflows. In addition, the decline in global commodity prices, particularly crude oil, is
expected to further ease the pressure on foreign currency on account of oil imports.
Chapter- 3
Review
of
LITERATURE
Indian Capital Market since liberalizations has undergone tremendous changes and has
evolved as a vibrant system of investment flows. A dynamic capital market is an important
segment of the financial system of any country as it plays a significant role in mobilizing
savings and channeling them for productive purposes.In recent times, studies on the
relationship between macroeconomic variables and national stock market have been the
cornerstone of most economic literature. Among the many macroeconomic variables, the
relationship between money supply and stock prices has been widely studied because of the
belief that money supply changes have important direct effects through portfolio changes,
and indirect effects through their effect on real economic activity, which in turn postulated to
be the fundamental determinants of stock prices. Despite extensive investigations, the precise
nature of the relationship between money supply and the stock market remains
ambiguous.Other macroeconomic variables apart from money supply are equally important
because there is a strong relationship between stock returns with other macroeconomic
variables, notably, inflation and national output as well as industrial production. The inflation
rate is an important element in determining stock returns due to the fact that during the times
of high inflation, people recognize that the market is in a state of economic difficulty. People
are laid off work, which could cause production to decrease. When people are laid off, they
tend to buy only the essential items. Thus production is cut even further. This eats into
corporate profits, which in turn makes dividends diminish. When dividends decrease, the
expected return of stocks decrease, causing stocks to depreciate in value.
CHAPTER- 4
RESEARCH
METHODOLOGY
OBJECTIVES:
• To know that whether the Indian stock market acts as a barometer of the Indian
economy’s growth and development or not.
• To find out the correlation between macroeconomic variables and stock market
indices.
SCOPE: The scope of the study includes BSE Sensitive Index, S&P CNX NIFTY and the
macroeconomic variables, viz.,
• Index of industrial production
• Agriculture production
• Service sector’s contribution towards GDP
• Money supply
• Per capita income
• Net domestic savings
• Market capitalization
• Exchange rate of Indian Rupee vis-à-vis US Dollar
TECHNIQUES USED:
Correlation test has been applied to establish the relationship between the Indian stock
indices and macroeconomic variables.
• Trend of movement of the stock indices against the macroeconomic variables has
been examined with the help of line charts.
PERIOD: The data for the purpose is restricted to the period between 1995-96 to 2008-
09.
CHAPTER- 5
analysis
and
interpretation
1.) CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE STOCK MARKET
INDICES AND THE GDP AT FACTOR COST.
GDP:(SENSEX,NIFTY)
200
180
160
140
120
100
PERCENTAGE
80 NIFTY
60
40
GDP
20 SENSEX
0
-20
19 96
19 97
19 98
20 00
20 01
20 -02
20 03
20 04
20 05
20 06
20 07
9
19 99
20 08
-0
-
-40
05
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
06
07
08
19
-60
-80
-100
YEARS
CORRELATION:
SENSEX S&P CNX NIFTY
GDP AT FACTOR COST 0.721198776 0.740981009
INTERPRETATION:
An answer to this question is that in the series of fourteen years of data of growth rate of
GDP and both indices, there is a clear correlation between them.
On an annual basis in the last ten years the BSE Sensex and S&P CNX NIFTY have had a
very volatile trend but GDP at factor cost has been growing at a steady rate because GDP of
the economy is the collective output of the agriculture, industrial and services sector.
Economy goes through cycles of recovery, peak, slowdown and depression over the longer
period of time. Similarly, stock markets also have cycles, depending on how the economy is
performing. Therefore, even if India's GDP grows at 12% in one year, the Sensex may not
gain a similar percentage during the year. However, the relationship may hold true over the
longer-term.
The often repeated story of developments in stock markets continues to be breath-taking.
From quarterly average of 3138 points in Oct-Dec 2001, within about six years, the Sensex
has reached an average level of 20000 points in Dec 2008. Nobody should think that the
Sensex is up simply because India's GDP has accelerated to 9% in the first half of the year.
2.) CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE STOCK MARKET
INDICES AND THE AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION.
AGRICULTURE;(SENSEX,NIFTY)
200
180
160
140
120
100
80 NIFTY
60
40
20 SENSEX
0
-20
G
N
C
R
P
E
A
T
-40 AGRICUL
-60
-80
TURE
-100
-120
YEARS
CORRELATION:
INTERPRETATION:
There is a moderate degree of correlation between the agriculture production and the stock
market indices. It did not come out with a high degree of correlation simply because
agriculture sector of the economy indirectly helps in the growth of the market indices. As we
all know that farmers do not go to capital market or they do not invest their money in the
capital market but in fact they assist others, like manufacturing sector, to grow and increase
GDP of the economy.
It puts an indirect impact on the capital market as it is having the lowest contribution in the
country’s GDP as compare to other sectors, that is, 19.01 per cent in 2005-06 as given by the
Economic survey of 2006-07. Its contribution has been declined from 19.01 per cent of 2005-
06 to 16 per cent in 2008-09
The Economic Survey for 2008 has estimated a growth rate of 3.9% in the agricultural
production. The total foodgrains production is estimated to be 219.3mn tons in the year 2007-
08 against 204.6mn tons in 2004-05 and 227.3 in 2008-09.
On the global level, India was the second largest producer of both fruits and vegetables with a
production of 69mn tons and 105mn tons respectively in 2007-08. India occupies the first
position in production of cauliflower, second in onion and third in cabbage.
200
150
100
nifty
50 INDUSTRY
SENSEX
0
g
ta
e
p
rcn
-50
-100
-150
years
Source: Economic Survey 2008
CORRELATION:
INTERPRETATION:
There is a clear correlation between the stock market indices and the industrial production in
the economy. It means industrial production puts a direct impact on the capital market. It
could be because of two main reasons. Firstly, it has been growing at a faster rate than the
agriculture sector. Its growth rate is estimated at 11.1 per cent in the 2007-08 as compare to
9.58 per cent in the 2005-06. Secondly, capital market includes number of manufacturing
companies. So, with the growth rate in the industrial sector, capital market also grows.
In November, the index of industrial production (IIP) showed very dismal performance as
people bought less cars, mobiles, houses, and consumer durables. With salary growth
reducing, expenditure across sectors, consumption is decling; businessmen, responding to
decrese in demand for their goods, are investing less in factories and industrial capacities,
pushing demand down to lower level.
NIFTY
100
SERVICE SECTOR
50
SENSEX
0
19 -96
19 -97
19 -98
19 -99
20 -02
20 -06
20 -07
20 -08
20 -00
20 -01
20 -03
20 -04
20 -05
9
-50
-0
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
19
-100
YEARS
CORRELATION:
INTERPRETATION:
There has been a moderate degree of correlation between stock market indices and service
sector’s contribution in the economy’s GDP. It is so because the contribution of the service
sector is highest, as compare to other sectors, in the GDP of the economy and it has been
growing at the fast rate too.
The services sector has been the key driver of our growth, registering growth rates of 11.98,
11.2% over the last two years. We expect the growth rate to moderate marginally to 14%
this year since some of the sub-sectors such as communication which saw very rapid growth
in recent years are likely to confront subdued demand.
INTERPRETATION:
Last ten year data of broad money and indices show a clear correlation between them. Where
broad money includes: Currency with the public + Demand deposits with banks + Time
deposits with banks + Other deposits with RBI.
Despite having a steady growth in the broad money, indices have had a volatile trend in the
last ten years. In this data we can easily trace out that broad money has been increasing
continously.Correlation shows that money supply does put an impact on the stock market
because if broad money increases in the economy, it would increase the money in the hands
of the public which would increase the purchasing power or the real money of the public. No
doubt at all that it will also lead to an inflation in the economy but this issue is often well
being taken care by the government with the help of monitory policy.
Increase in the broad money supply up to September 2008 was 13%. During this period both
commercial and government borrowings also increased by 4.3% and 9.2% respectively.
Aggregate deposits of scheduled commercial banks rose by 9.2%
But recent reduction in the Repo rate might lead to rise in the money supply growth and
decline in lending rates in the coming months.
CORRELATION:
INTERPRETATION:
There is a very high degree of correlation between Sensex and per capita income although per
capita income is known to be better measure for the economic development but above drawn
graph shows that this macroeconomic variable does affect the growth rate of capital market
indices.
. The per capita income at current prices is estimated at Rs. 38084 during 2008-09 as against
Rs. 33284 in the previous year, a growth of 14 per cent.
But the per capita income has a 0.953515 correlation with the GDP at factor cost which
means high degree of positive correlation.
CORRELATION:
INTERPRETATION:
This data shows that there is high degree of correlation between the net domestic savings and
the stock market indices. As we know that the increase in savings depends on higher
economic growth rate and a declining dependency ratio which means domestic savings is the
good indicator of the economy growth.
In my opinion, high degree of correlation between domestic savings and stock market indices
because securities market channelise savings to investments and thereby decouple these two
activities. As a result, savers and investors are not constrained by their individual abilities,
but by the economy’s ability to invest and save respectively, which inevitably enhances
savings and investment in the economy.
But it could also be possible that whole of the savings are not mobilizing towards the
investments in the capital market but channelising in some other investment alternatives like
real estate and gold. It could be because of the inefficiency of the capital market in terms of
inadequate information, illiteracy etc.
Gross domestic savings as a proportion of GDP continued with its upward trend. The savings
ratio increased to 45 in FY2008 compared to 22% in FY2009. Savings from private corporate
and household sector led the surge in domestic savings rate whereas public sector savings
witnessed a marginal fall.
Note: Data are based on FEDAI (Foreign Exchange Dealers' Association of India) indicative
rates
CORRELATION:
INTERPRETATION:
There has been a poor correlation between the capital market indices and the exchange rate of
Indian rupee against US dollar. Because mainly exchange rate affects the international trade,
that is, imports and exports. But it may indirectly help in the growth of the capital market in
terms of the following reforms in this area:
• Foreign Institutional Investors are allowed to invest in Indian equities subject to
restrictions on maximum holdings in individual companies. Restrictions remain on
investment in debt, but these too have been progressively relaxed.
• Indian mutual funds are allowed to invest a small portion of their assets abroad.
• Indian companies are given access to long dated forward contracts and to cross
currency options.
CONCLUSION
The main objective of the project is to determine the lead and lag relationships between the
Indian stock market and key macroeconomic variables. Certain quarters of the investors
believe that the positive growth in the gross national product will result in an improvement in
the performance of the stock markets. The endeavor of the study is to investigate the
question: Can the Indian stock market act as a barometer for the Indian economy’s growth
and development? This is of course an empirical question. To test this, the correlation test has
been employed and the results are summarized as follows:
i. Moderate degree of positive correlation between GDP at factor cost and all its three
sectors with the SENSEX and S&P CNX NIFTY. Manufacturing sector has shown
the better correlation as compare to others.
ii. High degree of positive correlation between broad money and the S&P CNX NIFTY.
iii. High degree of positive correlation of per capita income with the SENSEX but it has
shown a high degree of positive correlation with the GDP at factor cost.
iv. High degree of positive correlation between net domestic savings and the SENSEX .
v. Low degree of positive correlation of exchange rate of an Indian rupee against US
dollar and the both indices.
The Indian stock market is influenced by changes in the Indian economy and Indian stock
market acts as a barometer of Indian economy as it is proved by the high degree of positive
correlation between stock market indices and key macroeconomic variables, such as,
Domestic savings, money supply and GDP growth rate. But on the other hand, other
macroeconomic variable such as and Exchange rate have low degree of correlation with
respect to Indian stock market
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-RBI Bulletin (Volume LXIII Number 2)” Monetary Policy” Rekha Mishra, Feb.2009,Q3
-Indian capital market. (2006-07). Economic survey
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Industry, New Delhi.
-India-watch: India at a glance. article retrieved on March 28, 2007, from
http://indiandata.com.
Latest economic data. (2008). India
-Macroeconomic variables, article retrieved on April 1, 2008, from
http:// rbi.org.in/scripts/annual publications.
-Monthly economic analysis. article retrieved on March 28, 2008, from
http://indianbusiness.nic.in.
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