Exercises in Probability Theory

Nikolai Chernov

All exercises (except Chapters 16 and 17) are taken from two books:
R. Durrett, The Essentials of Probability, Duxbury Press, 1994
S. Ghahramani, Fundamentals of Probability, Prentice Hall, 2000

1 Combinatorics
These problems are due on August 24
Exercise 1.1. In how many ways can we draw five cards from an ordinary
deck of 52 cards (a) with replacement; (b) without replacement?
(a): 525 (b): P52,5
Exercise 1.2. Suppose in a state, licence plates have three letters followed
by three numbers, in a way that no letter or number is repeated in a single
plate. Determine the number of possible licence plates for this state.
26 × 25 × 24 × 10 × 9 × 8 = 11, 232, 000
Exercise 1.3. Eight people are divided into four pairs to play bridge. In
how many ways can this be done?
C8,2 · C6,2 · C4,2 · C2,2 = 2, 520.
Exercise 1.4. A domino is an ordered pair (m, n) with 0 ≤ m ≤ n ≤ 6.
How many dominoes are in a set if there is only one of each?
C7,2 + 7 = 28
Exercise 1.5. A club with 50 members is going to form two committees,
one with 8 members and the other with 7. How many ways can this be done
if the committees must be disjoint?
C50,8 · C42,7 = 1.45 × 1016
Exercise 1.6. Six students, three boys and three girls, lineup in a random
order for a photograph. What is the probability that the boys and girls
alternate?

1
 72/720 = 1/10
Exercise 1.7. In a town of 50 people, one person tells a rumor to a second
person, who tells a third, and so on. If at each step the recipient of the rumor
is chosen at random, what is the probability the rumor will be told 8 times
without being told to someone who knows it?
P49,8 /498 = 0.547
Exercise 1.8. A fair coin is tossed 10 times. What is the probability of (a)
five Heads; (b) at least five Heads?
P
(a): C10,5 /210 = 0.246 (b): 10
k=5 C10,k /2
10
= 0.623
Exercise 1.9. Suppose we roll a red die and a green die. What is the
probability the number on the red die is larger (>) than the number on the
green die?
15/36
Exercise 1.10. Four people are chosen randomly from 5 couples. What is
the probability that two men and two women are selected?
2
C5,2 /C10,4 = 10/21
Exercise 1.11 (Bonus). If five numbers are selected at random from the set
{1, 2, . . . , 20}, what is the probability that their minimum is larger than 5?
C15,5 /C20,5 = 0.19
Exercise 1.12 (Bonus). The World Series is won by the first team to win
four games. Suppose both teams are equally likely to win each game. What
is the probability that the team that wins the first game will win the series?
((C6,3 + C6,4 + C6,5 + C6,6 )/26 )
Exercise 1.13 (Bonus). Show that the probability of an even number of
Heads in n tosses of a fair coin is always 1/2.
Exercise 1.14 (Bonus). If n balls are randomly placed into n cells (so that
more than one ball can be placed in a cell), what is the probability that each
cell will be occupied?
n!/nn
Exercise 1.15 (Graduate). Read about Stirling’s formula. Use it to approx-
imate the probability of observing exactly n Heads in a game where a fair
coin is flipped 2n times. Use that approximation to compute the probability
for n = 50.

2
2 Probability Space
These problems are due on August 29

Exercise 2.1. Suppose we pick a letter at random from the word TEN-
NESSEE. What is the sample space Ω and what probabilities should be
assigned to the outcomes?

{T, E, N, S}, with probabilities 1/9. 4/9, 2/9, 2/9.

Exercise 2.2. In a group of students, 25% smoke cigarettes, 60% drink

alcohol, and 15% do both. What fraction of students have at least one of
these bad habits?

70%

Exercise 2.3. Suppose P (A) = 13 , P (Ac ∩ B c ) = 21 , and P (A ∩ B) = 14 .

What is P (B)?

5/12

Exercise 2.4. Given two events A and B with P (A) = 0.4 and P (B) = 0.7.
What are the maximum and minimum possible values for P (A ∩ B)?

min: 0.1, max: 0.4

Exercise 2.5. John and Bob take turns in flipping a fair coin. The first one
to get a Heads wins. John starts the game. What is the probability that he
wins?

1/2 + 1/8 + 1/32 + · · · = 2/3

Exercise 2.6. Use the inclusion-exclusion formula to compute the probabil-

ity that a randomly chosen number between 0000 and 9999 contains at least
one 1.

0.3439

Exercise 2.7 (Graduate). Let A and B be two events. Show that if P (A) = 1
and P (B) = 1, then P (A ∩ B) = 1. (Hint: use their complements Ac and
B c .)

3
Exercise 2.8 (Graduate). Read about the continuity of probabilities. Sup-
pose a number x is picked randomly from the interval [0, 1]. What is the
probability that x = 1/10? What is the probability that x = m/10 for
some m = 0, . . . , 10? What is the probability that x = m/100 for some
m = 0, . . . , 100? What is the probability that x = m/n for some m ≤ n?
What is the probability that x is rational?

3 Conditional Probability and Independence

These problems are due on September 7

Exercise 3.1. A friend flips two coins and tells you that at least one is
Heads. Given this information, what is the probability that the first coin is
Heads?

2/3

Exercise 3.2. Suppose that a married man votes is 0.45, the probability
that a married woman votes is 0.4, and the probability a woman votes given
that her husband votes is 0.6. What is the probability that (a) both vote,
(b) a man votes given that his wife votes?

(a) 0.27, (b) 0.675

Exercise 3.3. If 5% of men and 0.25% of women are color blind, what is
the probability that a randomly selected person is color blind?

2.625%

Exercise 3.4 (Bonus). How can 5 black and 5 white balls be put into two
urns to maximize the probability a white ball is drawn when we draw a ball
from a randomly chosen urn?

one urn must have a single white ball

Exercise 3.5. Roll two dice. Let A =“The first die is odd”, B =“The second
die is odd”, and C =“The sum is odd”. Show that these events are pairwise
independent but not jointly independent.

P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = 0.

4
Exercise 3.6. Three couples that were invited to dinner will independently
show up with probabilities 0.9, 0.8, and 0.75. Let N be the number of couples
that show up. Calculate the probability that N = 3 and that of N = 2.
0.54 and 0.375
Exercise 3.7 (Bonus). Show that if an event A is independent of itself, then
either P (A) = 0 or P (A) = 1.

Exercise 3.8. How many times should a coin be tosses so that the proba-
bility of at least one head is at least 99%?
7 times
Exercise 3.9. On a multiple-choice exam with four choices for each question,
a student either knows the answer to a question or marks it at random.
Suppose the student knows answers to 60% of the exam questions. If she
marks the answer to question 1 correctly, what is the probability that she
knows the answer to that question?
6/7
Exercise 3.10 (Graduate). Suppose A1 , . . . , An are independent. Show that
n
Y ¡ ¢
P (A1 ∪ · · · ∪ An ) = 1 − 1 − P (Am ) .
m=1

Exercise 3.11. In a certain city 30% of the people are Conservatives, 50%
are Liberals, and 20% are Independents. In a given election, 2/3 of the
Conservatives voted, 80% of the Liberals voted, and 50% of the Independents
voted. If we pick a voter at random, what is the probability he/she is Liberal?
4/7
Exercise 3.12 (Graduate). Show that if A and B are independent, then
A and B c are independent, Ac and B are independent, and Ac and B c are
independent.

Exercise 3.13 (Graduate). Show that an event A is independent of every

event B if P (A) = 0 or P (A) = 1.

5
4 Discrete Random Variables
These problems are due on September 14

Exercise 4.1. Suppose we roll two dice and let X be the minimum of the
two numbers obtained. Determine the probability function of X and sketch
its graph.

P (X = 1) = 11/36, P (X = 2) = 9/36, P (X = 3) = 7/36,

P (X = 4) = 5/36, P (X = 5) = 3/36, P (X = 6) = 1/36

Exercise 4.2. In successive rolls of a die, let X be the number of rolls until
the first 6 appears. Determine the probability function of X.

P (X = k) = 5k−1 /6k for k = 1, 2, . . .

Exercise 4.3. From the interval (0, 1), five points are selected at random.
What is the probability that at least two of them are less than 1/3?
P5 ¡5¢ k 5−k
k=2 k (1/3) (2/3) = 131/243 ≈ 0.539

Exercise 4.4. A certain rare blood type can be found in only 0.05% of
people. Use the Poisson approximation to compute the probability that at
most two persons in a group of randomly selected 3000 people will have this
rare blood type.
P k
λ = 1.5, probability= 2k=0 1.5
k!
e−1.5 = 3.625e−1.5 ≈ 0.8088

Exercise 4.5. An airline company sells 200 tickets for a plane with 198 seats,
knowing that the probability a passenger will not show up for the flight is
0.01. Use the Poisson approximation to compute the probability they will
have enough seats for all the passengers who show up.
P k
λ = 2, probability=1 − 1k=0 2k! e−2 = 1 − 3e−2 = 0.5946

Exercise 4.6. Let X be a Poisson random variable with parameter λ > 0.

Denote Pk = P(X = k) for k = 0, 1, . . .. Compute Pk−1 /Pk and show that
this ratio is less than one if and only if k < λ. This shows that the most
probable values of X are those near λ. In fact, the most probable value is
the greatest integer less than or equal to λ.

6
Exercise 4.7 (Bonus). Let X be a binomial random variable, b(n, p). Denote
Pk = P(X = k) for k = 0, 1, . . . , n. Compute Pk−1 /Pk and show that this
ratio is less than one if and only if k < np + p. This shows that the most
probable values of X are those near np.

Exercise 4.8 (Graduate). Let X be a geometric random variable with pa-

rameter p. Denote Pk = P(X = k) for k = 1, 2, . . .. Prove that

P(X ≥ m + n/X > m) = P(X ≥ n) (1)

for any positive integers m and n. Explain what it means, in terms of trials
till the first success. The property (1) is called the memoryless property of a
discrete random variable (that takes values 1, 2, . . .).

5 Continuous Random Variables

These problems are due on September 21

Exercise 5.1. Let F (x) = e−1/x for x > 0 and F (x) = 0 for x ≤ 0. Is F (x)
a distribution function? If so, find its density function.

Yes. The density is f (x) = x−2 e−1/x for x > 0.

Exercise 5.2. Suppose X has density function f (x) = c(1−x2 ) for −1 < x <
1 and f (x) = 0 elsewhere. Compute the value of c. Find the distribution
function F (x) of X. Sketch the graphs of f (x) and F (x). Compute the
probabilities P(X > 0.5) and P(0 < X < 0.5).
1
c = 3/4. F (x) = 2
+ 34 x − 14 x3 . Probabilities are 5/32 and 11/32.

Exercise 5.3 (Bonus). Consider f (x) = cx−1/2 for x ≥ 1, and f (x) = 0

otherwise. Show that there is no value of c that makes f a density function.

Exercise 5.4. A point is selected at random from the interval (0, 1); it then
divides this interval into two segments. What is the probability that the
longer segment is at least twice as long as the shorter segment?

2/3.

7
Exercise 5.5 (Graduate). Read about distribution functions of discrete ran-
dom variables. Now let Xn be a discrete uniform random variable that takes
values 1, . . . , n. Consider the random variable Yn = n1 Xn . Describe the distri-
bution function Fn (x) of the variable Yn ; sketch it for n = 3 and n = 10. Find
the limit function, F (x) = limn→∞ Fn (x). Is it a distribution function? For
what random variable? If the limit function F (x) is a distribution function
of a random variable Y , then we say that Yn converges to Y in distribution.

6 Exponential Random Variables

These problems are due on September 28

Exercise 6.1. Suppose the lifetime of a TV set is an exponential random

variable X with half-life t1/2 = 5 (years). Find the parameter λ. Compute the
probability P(X > 10) and the conditional probability P(X > 24/X > 14).

Exercise 6.2. Let X be an exponential random variable with parameter

λ > 0. Find probabilities
µ ¶ µ¯ ¶
2 ¯ 1 ¯¯ 2
P X> and P ¯X − ¯ < .
λ λ λ

Exercise 6.3. Show that if X is exponential(λ), then the random variable

Y = λX is exponential(1).

Exercise 6.4 (Graduate). Let Xn be a geometric random variable with

parameter p = λ/n. Compute
µ ¶
Xn
P >x for x > 0
n

and show that as n → ∞ this probability converges to P(Y > x), where Y
is an exponential random variable with parameter λ. This shows that Xn /n
is approximately an exponential random variable.

8
 Y
Wall

1 X

Flash light

Figure 1: A drunk waving a flash light randomly at a wall.

7 Functions of Random Variables

These problems are due on October 3

Exercise 7.1. Suppose X is a uniform random variable on the interval (0, 1).
Find the distribution and density functions of Y = X n for n ≥ 2.

Exercise 7.2. Suppose X is an exponential random variable with parameter

λ = 1. Find the distribution and density functions of Y = ln(X). This is
called the double exponential distribution.

Exercise 7.3 (Graduate). A drunk standing one foot from a wall shines a
flashlight at a random angle that is uniformly distributed between −π/2 and
π/2, i.e. the angle X is U (−π/2, π/2). Find the distribution and density
functions of the place where the light hits the wall. Note: that place is given
by the formula Y = tan(X), see illustration. The variable Y is said to have
Cauchy distribution.

Exercise 7.4 (Bonus). Let X be a uniform random variable on the interval

(−1, 1). Find the distribution and density functions of Y = |X|. Is the
variable Y familiar? What is its type?

8 Normal Random Variables

These problems are due on October 7

9
Exercise 8.1. Suppose Z has a standard normal distribution. Use the table
to compute
(a) P(−1.1 < Z < 2.95), 0.8627
(b) P(Z > −0.69), 0.7549
(c) P(−1.45 < Z < −0.28), 0.3162
(d) P(|Z| ≤ 2.5). 0.9876

Exercise 8.2. Suppose X has normal distribution N (−2, 9). Compute

(a) P(−3.2 < X < 1.3), 0.5197
(b) P(X > −1.19), 0.3936
(c) P(|X| ≤ 11). 0.9987

Exercise 8.3. Suppose the weight (in pounds) of a randomly selected woman
has a normal distribution N (130, 400). Of the women who weigh above 140
pounds, what percent weigh over 170 pounds?
0.0739
Exercise 8.4 (Graduate). The following inequality is obviously true for all
y > 0:
2 2 2
(1 − 3y −4 ) e−y /2 < e−y /2 < (1 + y −2 ) e−y /2 .
Integrate it from x to ∞ and derive the following:
µ ¶
1 1 2 1 2
√ 1 − 2 e−x /2 < 1 − Φ(x) < √ e−x /2 .
x 2π x x 2π
Hint: use integration by parts to simplify the integrals
Z ∞ Z ∞
1 −y2 /2 3 −y2 /2
2
e dy and e dy.
x y x y4
Lastly, show that
1 2
1 − Φ(x) ∼ √ e−x /2 .
x 2π
That is, as x → ∞, the ratio of the two sides approaches 1.

Exercise 8.5 (Graduate). Let Z be a standard normal random variable.

Use the last formula from the previous exercise to show that for every x > 0
³ x ´
lim P Z > t + / Z > t = e−x .
t→∞ t
(Note: this is a conditional probability!)

10
9 Joint Distributions
These problems are due on October 17

Exercise 9.1. Suppose P(X = x, Y = y) = c(x + y) for x, y = 0, 1, 2, 3.

(a) What value of c will make this a probability function? c = 1/48
(b) What is P(X > Y )? 3/8
(c) What is P(X + Y = 3)? 1/4

Exercise 9.2. Suppose X and Y have joint density f (x, y) = 2 for 0 < y <
x < 1. Find P(X − Y > z), where z > 0 is a constant.

(1 − z)2

Exercise 9.3. (Bonus) Two people agree to meet for a drink after work but
they are impatient and each will only wait 15 minutes for the other person
to show up. Suppose that they each arrive at independent random times
uniformly distributed between 5 p.m. and 6 p.m. What is the probability
they will meet?

7/16 = 0.4375

Exercise 9.4. (Bonus) Suppose n points are selected at random and in-
dependently inside a circle of radius R (each point is uniformly distributed
inside the circle). Find the probability that the distance of the nearest point
to the center is less than r, where r < R is a constant.

1 − [1 − (r2 /R2 )n ]

Exercise 9.5. (Bonus) Suppose X and Y are uniform on (0, 1) and inde-
pendent. Find the density function of X + Y . (You will understand why the
X + Y is said to have a ‘triangular’ distribution.)

f (x) = x for 0 < x < 1 and f (x) = 1 − x for 1 < x < 2

Exercise 9.6. (Bonus) Let X1 , X2 , X3 , and

¡ 1 X4 be four1 ¢independently se-
lected random numbers from (0, 1). Find P 4 < X(3) < 2 .

k = 2, F (x) = 4x3 − 3x4 , probability is 67/256

11
Exercise 9.7 (Graduate). Let X1 , . . . , Xn be independently selected random
numbers from (0, 1), and Yn = nX(1) . Prove that
¡ ¢
lim P Yn > x = e−x ,
n→∞

thus Yn is asymptotically exponential(1).

Exercise 9.8 (Graduate). Suppose X1 and X2 are independent standard

normal random variables. Find the distribution of Y = (X12 + X22 )1/2 . This
is the Rayleigh distribution.

Exercise 9.9 (Graduate). Read about transformations of pairs of random

variables. Now suppose X1 and X2 are independent uniform(0, 1) random
variables. Consider two new random variables defined by
p p
Z1 = −2 ln X1 cos(2πX2 ) and Z2 = −2 ln X1 sin(2πX2 ).

Show that Z1 and Z2 are two independent standard normal random variables,
i.e. their joint density function is
1 −(z12 +z22 )/2
fZ1 ,Z2 (z1 , z2 ) = e .
2π
This gives a practical algorithm for simulating values of normal random vari-
ables.

Exercise 9.10 (Graduate). Read about independent random variables. De-

termine if two random variables X and Y are independent given their joint
density function fX,Y (x, y) below. If they are independent, determine the
densities fX (x) and fY (y).
1
(a) fX,Y (x, y) = 18 x2 y for 0 < x < 3 and 0 < y < 2 and 0 elsewhere.
(b) f (x, y) = 8xy for 0 < x < y < 1.

10 Mean Value
These problems are due on October 21

12
Exercise 10.1. A man plays roulette and bets $1 on black 19 times. He
wins $1 with probability 18/38 and loses $1 with probability 20/38. What is
his expected winnings?

Expected winning is −1, i.e., he expects to lose $1.

Exercise 10.2. A player bets $1 and if he wins he gets $3. What must the
probability of winning be for this to be a fair bet?

A fair bet is when the average net result is zero (no win or lose). The
probability must be 1/4, as then the average win is 3 · (1/4) − 1 · (3/4) = 0.
The problem admits a different interpretation so that the net win is 3−1 =
2. Then the probability must be 2/3.

Exercise 10.3. Suppose X has density function f (x) = 3x(2 − x)/4 for
0 < x < 2, and f (x) = 0 elsewhere. Find E(X). Graph the density function,
note its symmetry about the mean value.
R2 2
Answer: 0 3x (2−x)
4
dx = 1.

Exercise 10.4 (Bonus). Two people agree to meet for a drink after work
and each arrives independently at a time uniformly distributed between 5
p.m. and 6 p.m. What is the expected amount of time that the first person
to arrive has to wait for the arrival of the second?

Let T denote the waiting time. Then its distribution function FT (x) =
P(T < x) = 1 − (1 − x)2 (this is similar to Problem 9.3). RThen the density
1
function is fT (x) = 2(1 − x) and the mean waiting time is 0 2x(1 − x) dx =
1 − 32 = 13 (or just 20 minutes).

Exercise 10.5. Suppose X is exponential(3),¡ i.e.¢ X is an exponential random

variable with parameter λ = 3. Calculate E eX .
R∞ R∞
Answer: 0 ex 3e−3x dx = 0 3e−2x dx = 23 .

Exercise 10.6. Let X1 , . . . , Xn be independent and uniform random vari-

ables on (0, 1). Denote V = max{X1 , . . . , Xn } and W = min{X1 , . . . , Xn },
as in the class notes. Find E(V ) and E(W ).
R1 n
R1
Answer: E(V ) = 0 xnxn−1 dx = n+1 and E(W ) = 0 xn(1 − x)n−1 dx =
1
n+1
. The second integral can be taken by a change of variable y = 1 − x.

13
 1
Exercise 10.7 (Graduate). Show that p(n) = n(n+1) for n = 1, 2, . . . is a
probability function for some discrete random variable X. Find E(X).

Exercise 10.8 (Bonus). Suppose X has the standard normal distribution.

Compute E(|X|).

Exercise 10.9 (Graduate). Suppose X1 , . . . , Xn > 0 are independent and

all have the same distribution. Let m < n. Find
³X + · · · + X ´
1 m
E .
X1 + · · · + Xn
Hint: since X1 , . . . , Xn are independent and have the same distribution, they
are interchangeable, i.e., you can swap Xi and Xj for any i 6= j without
changing the above mean value.

Exercise 10.10 (Graduate). Suppose X has the standard normal distribu-

tion. Use integration by parts to show that E(X k ) = (k −1) E(X k−2 ). Derive
that E(X k ) = 0 for all odd k ≥ 1. Compute E(X 4 ) and E(X 6 ). Derive a
general formula for E(X 2k ).

Exercise 10.11 (Graduate). Read about independent random variables.

Show that if X and Y take only two values 0 and 1 and E(XY ) = E(X) E(Y ),
then X and Y are independent.

11 Variance
These problems are due on October 26
Exercise 11.1. Suppose X has density function f (x) = (r − 1) x−r for x > 1
and f (x) = 0 elsewhere; here r > 1 is a parameter. Find E(X) and Var(X).
For which values of r do E(X) and Var(X) exist?
r−1 r−1
Answer: E(X) = r−2
for r > 2 and E(X 2 ) = r−3
for r > 3.
(r−1) 2
r−1
Hence Var(X) = r−3
− (r−2)2 for r > 3.

Exercise 11.2. Can we have a random variable X with E(X) = 3 and

E(X 2 ) = 8?

14
 Answer: No, because Var(X) = 8 − 33 = −1 cannot be negative.
Exercise 11.3. Let X and Y be independent with Var(X) = 5 and Var(Y ) =
2 . Find Var(2X − 3Y + 11).
Answer: 38.
Exercise 11.4. Suppose X1 , . . . , Xn are£ independent with ¤ E(Xi ) = µ and
2 2
Var(Xi ) = σ for all i = 1, . . . , n, Find E (X1 + . . . + Xn ) .
Answer: Recall that for any random variable Y we have E(Y 2 ) = Var(Y )+
£ ¤ £ ¤2
[E(Y )]2 . Now E (X1 +. . .+Xn )2 = Var(X1 +. . .+Xn )+ E(X1 +. . .+Xn ) =
(σ 2 + · · · + σ 2 ) + [µ + · · · + µ]2 = nσ 2 + [nµ]2 .
Exercise 11.5 (Bonus). Suppose X takes values in the interval [−1, 1].
What is the largest possible value of Var(X) and when is this attained?
What is the answer when [−1, 1] is replaced by [a, b]?
Answer: Largest variance is 1; it is attained when X takes values ±1,
each with probability 0.5.
Exercise 11.6 (Graduate). Show that E(X − c)2 is minimized by taking
c = E(X).

Exercise 11.7 (Graduate). Suppose you want to collect a set of 5 (distinct)

baseball cards. Assume that you buy one card at a time, and each time you
get a randomly chosen card (from the 5 different cards available). Let X be
the number of cards you have to buy before you collect all the 5. Describe
X as a sum of geometric random variables. Find E(X) and Var(X).

12 Moment Generating Function

These problems are due on November 4
Exercise 12.1. Suppose X has a uniform distribution on the interval (0, 1).
Find the moment-generating function of X and use it to compute the mo-
ments of X.
t
Answer: MX (t) = e −1 t
. To compute moments, take derivatives and use
t t +1
l’Hopital’s rule to find the limit as t → 0. For example, M0 (t) = te −e
t2
, and
0
limt→0 M (t) = 1/2 by l’Hopital’s rule.

15
 t −t
Exercise 12.2. Is M(t) = e +e 6
+ 23 a moment-generating function of a
random variable? If yes, find the corresponding probability function. Also
find the moments of that random variable.

Answer: yes. The probability function is P(X = 0) = 2/3, P(X = 1) =

1/6, and P(X = −1) = 1/6. The moments are E(X k ) = 0 for odd k’s and
E(X k ) = 1/3 for even k’s.

Exercise 12.3. Let X be N (1, 2) and Y be N (4, 7); assume that X and Y
are independent. Find the probabilities of the following events: (a) P(X +
Y > 0), (b) P(X < Y ), and (c) P(3X > 20 − 4Y ).

Answer: (a) X + Y is N (5, 9) and P(X + Y > 0) = 0.9525; (b) X − Y

is N (−3, 9) and P(X − Y < 0) = 0.8413; (c) 3X + 4Y is N (19, 130) and
P(3X > 20 − 4Y ) = 0.4641.

Exercise 12.4 (Bonus). Suppose that for a random variable X we have

E(X n ) = 2n for all n = 1, 2, . . .. Calculate the moment-generating function
and the probability function of X.

Answer: MX (t) = e2t . The probability function is P(X = 2) = 1.

13 Covariance and Correlation

These problems are due on November 9

Exercise 13.1. Suppose X is a uniform random variable on the interval

(−1, 1) and Y = X 2 . Find Cov(X, X 2 ). Are X and Y independent?

Answer: Cov(X, X 2 ) = E(X 3 ) − E(X) · E(X 2 ) = 0 − 0 × 13 = 0, but these

random variables are dependent.

Exercise 13.2. Show that for any random variables X and Y we have

Cov(X + Y, X − Y ) = Var(X) − Var(Y ).

Notice that we are not assuming that X and Y are independent.

Solution: Cov(X + Y, X − Y ) = Cov(X, X) − Cov(X, Y ) + Cov(Y, X) −

Cov(Y, Y ) = Var(X) − Var(Y ).

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Exercise 13.3. Suppose that random variables X and Y are independent.
Show that
Var(X) − Var(Y )
ρ(X + Y, X − Y ) = .
Var(X) + Var(Y )
Solution:
Cov(X + Y, X − Y )
ρ(X + Y, X − Y ) = p p
Var(X + Y ) Var(X − Y )
Var(X) − Var(Y )
=p p
Var(X) + Var(Y ) Var(X) + Var(Y )

Exercise 13.4. In n independent Bernoulli trials, each with probability of

success p, let X be the number of successes and Y the number of failures.
Calculate E(XY ) and Cov(X, Y ).
Answer:
£ ¤
E(XY ) = E(X(n − X)) = nE(X) − E(X 2 ) = nE(X) − Var(X) + [E(X)]2
£ ¤
= n2 p − np(1 − p) + (np)2 = (n2 − n)(p − p2 )
and
Cov(X, Y ) = E(XY ) − E(X)E(Y ) = (n2 − n)(p − p2 ) − npn(1 − p)
= n(p2 − p) = −np(1 − p)

Exercise 13.5 (Bonus). Suppose that X1 , X2 , X3 are independent, have

mean 0 and Var(Xi ) = i. Find ρ(X1 − X2 , X2 + X3 ).
√
Answer: −2/ 15.
Exercise 13.6 (Bonus). Let X and Y be random variables with E(X) = 2,
Var(X) = 1, E(Y ) = 3, Var(Y ) = 4. What are the smallest and largest
possible values of Var(X + Y )?
Answer: the smallest is 1, the largest is 9. The key element is that
−1 ≤ ρX,Y ≤ 1.
Exercise 13.7 (Graduate). Suppose X1 , . . . , Xn are independent random
variables with E(Xi ) = µ and Var(Xi ) = σ 2 for all i = 1, . . . , n. Let Sk =
X1 + · · · + Xk . Find ρ(Sk , Sn ).

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14 Law of Large Numbers
These problems are due on November 11

Exercise 14.1. The average IQ score on a certain campus is 110. If the

variance of these scores is 15, what can be said about the percentage of
students with an IQ above 140?

Answer: 1/60, or 1.67%.

Exercise 14.2 (Graduate). Let y ≥ σ > 0. Give ¡ an example

¢ of a random
variable Y with E(Y ) = 0, Var(Y ) = σ , and P |Y | ≥ y = σ /y 2 , the upper
2 2

bound in Chebyshev’s inequality.

Exercise 14.3 (Graduate). Prove Bernstein’s inequality: for any t > 0

¡ ¢
P(X > y) ≤ e−ty E etX .

Exercise 14.4 (Graduate). Suppose X1 , . . . , Xn are independent exponen-

tial(1) random variables, and let Sn = X1 + · · · + Xn . Apply Bernstein’s
inequality to estimate P(Sn > cn) with c > 1, then pick t to minimize the
upper bound to show

P(Sn > cn) ≤ e−n(c−1−ln c) .

Next, verify that c − 1 − ln c > 0 for every c > 1 (hint: let f (c) = c − 1 − ln c;
then check that f (1) = 0 and f 0 (c) > 0 for c > 1). Now we see that
P(Sn > cn) → 0 exponentially fast as n → ∞.

15 Central Limit Theorem

These problems are due on November 18

Exercise 15.1. A basketball player makes 80% of his free throws on the
average. If the player attempts 40 free throws, what is the chance that he
will make exactly 35? For an extra credit, find the exact answer (you can
use the on-line calculator on the instructor’s web page).

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 Solution: X is b(40, 0.8); its normal approximation
³ Y is ´N (32,³6.4). Prob-
´
ability is P(X = 35) = P(34.5 < Y < 35.5) = Φ 35.5−32 √
6.4
− Φ 34.5−32
√
6.4
=
Φ(1.38) − Φ(0.99) = 0.0773. Exact answer: 0.0854.

Exercise 15.2. A basketball player makes 80% of his free throws on the
average. The player attempts free throws repeatedly until he makes 25.
What is the probability that at least 29 throws will be necessary? For an
extra credit, find the exact answer (you can use the on-line calculator on the
instructor’s web page).

Solution: at least 29 throws are necessary means that 28 are not enough,
so X is b(28, 0.8); its normal approximation
³ Y´ is N (22.4, 4.48). Probability
24.5−22.4
is P(X ≤ 24) = P(Y < 24.5) = Φ √4.48 = Φ(0.99) = 0.8389. Exact
answer: 0.8398.

Exercise 15.3. Suppose 1% of all screws made by a machine are defective.

We are interested in the probability that a batch of 225 screws has at most
one defective screw. Compute this probability by (a) Poisson approximation
and (b) normal approximation. Compare your answers to the exact value,
0.34106, obtained by the on-line calculator on the instructor’s web page.
Which approximation works better when p is small and n is large?

Solution: X is b(225, 0.01). (a) By Poisson approximation: λ = 225 ×

0.01 = 2.25, so the probability is P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) ≈ 2.250 e−2.25 +
2.251 e−2.25 = 0.3425. (b) By normal³approximation
´ Y is N (2.25, 2.2275),
1.5−2.25
so the probability is P(Y < 1.5) = Φ √2.2275 = Φ(−0.50) = 0.3085. The
exact answer is 0.3411. The Poisson approximation is the better one.

Exercise 15.4. Suppose that, whenever invited to a party, the probability

that a person attends with his or her guest is 1/3, attends alone is 1/3, and
does not attend is 1/3. A company has invited all 300 of its employees and
their guests to a Christmas party. What is the probability that at least 320
will attend?

Solution: for each person Xi takes three values: 0, 1, 2, each with prob-
ability 1/3. So E(Xi ) = 1 and Var(Xi ) = 2/3. Thus the normal approxima-
tion Y for the total S300
³ is N (300,
´ 200). The probability is P(S300 ≥ 320) ≈
319.5−300
P(Y ≥ 319.5) = 1 − Φ √200 = 1 − Φ(1.38) = 0.0838.

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Exercise 15.5. Suppose X is poisson(100). Use Central Limit Theorem to
estimate P(85 ≤ X < 115).

Solution: the normal approximation Y is N ³(100, 100).´ The³ probability

´
is P(85 ≤ X ≤ 114) ≈ P(84.5 < Y < 114.5) = Φ 114.5−100
10
− Φ 84.5−100
√
10
=
Φ(1.45) − Φ(−1.55) = 0.8659.

Exercise 15.6. A die is rolled until the sum of the numbers obtained is
larger than 200. What is the probability that you can do this in 66 rolls or
fewer?

Solution: The event is that in 66 rolls the sum exceeds 200, i.e., is ≥
201. The sum has mean 66 × 3.5 = 231 and variance 66 × 2.92 = 192.72.
The normal approximation
³ ´ Y is N (231, 192.72). The probability is P(Y >
200.5−231
200.5) = 1 − Φ √192.72 = 1 − Φ(−2.20) = 0.9861.

Exercise 15.7. Suppose the weight of a certain brand of bolt has mean of 1
gram and a standard deviation of 0.06 gram. Use the central limit theorem to
estimate the probability that 100 of these bolts weigh more than 101 grams.

Answer: 0.0475

Exercise 15.8 (Graduate). Let X1 , X2 , . . . be a sequence of independent

standard normal random variables. Let Sn = X12 + · · · + Xn2 ; this variable
is said to have χ2 -distribution with n degrees of freedom. Find the mean
value and variance
¡ of Sn√. Describe
¢ the normal approximation to Sn . Use it
to estimate P Sn ≤ n + 2n .

16 Random Walks (Gambler’s Ruin)

These problems are due on December 2

Exercise 16.1. An investor has a stock that each week goes up $1 with
probability 52% or down $1 with probability 48%. She bought the stock
when it cost $50 and will sell it when it reaches $70 or falls to $40.
(a) What is the probability that she will end up with $70?
(b) Find the mean number of weeks the investor keeps the stock.

20
Exercise 16.2. An investor has a stock that each week goes up $1 with
probability 50% or down $1 with probability 50%. She bought the stock
when it cost $50 and will sell it when it reaches $80 or falls to $30.
(a) What is the probability that she will end up with $80?
(b) Find the mean number of weeks the investor keeps the stock.

Exercise 16.3. A casino owner wins $1 with probability 0.55 and loses $1
with probability 0.45. If he starts with $60, what is the probability that he
will ever hit $0?

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17 Poisson Process
These problems are optional, they will be graded for extra credit. They are
due on December 9, after the last class meeting. Please put them in the
plastic bin on the wall near the instructor’s office. The corrected and graded
problems can be picked up from the instructor’s office or from the bin on
December 12, 13, or in the final exam on December 14.

Exercise 17.1. Assume that fires in a city occur at a rate 14 per week.
(a) If there was no fire yesterday, what is the probability the there will be no
fire today?
(b) What is the distribution of the waiting time till the next fire? Write down
formulas for the distribution function, give its mean value and variance. State
clearly what time units you are using.
(c) Let X be the number of fires in a month (30 days). What is the type of
the random variable X and what is its parameter?

Exercise 17.2. Mushrooms grow in a forest randomly, with density 0.5 per
square yard.
(a) If you find a mushroom, what is the chance that at least one more will
be within one yard from it? What is the chance that there is exactly one
mushroom within the distance one yard from the point you stay?
(Bonus) Let X be the distance to the nearest mushroom from the points you
stay. Find the distribution function and the density function of X. (Do not
just copy the formula from the class notes, provide calculation.)

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