Thayer Vietnam - COVID-19, ASEAN and The Crisis in Myanmar

Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: COVID-19, ASEAN
and the Crisis in Myanmar
October 18, 2021
We request your analytical input in addressing the issues raised in the following three
questions:
Q1. In 2020 and early 2021, Vietnam kept COVID-19 at bay through a combination of
border closures and social distancing enforcement. Recently, Vietnam has scrapped a
“zero-Covid” strategy in favor of a more flexible approach such as living safely with
the virus, battling the pandemic and developing economy at the same time through
vaccinating all people, adults, including workers, first and children later (scheduled in
October), applying the stay-at-work mode first, and allowing workers to travel freely
later... What do you think about the effectiveness of such major anti-COVID measures
Vietnam has taken at different periods of time?
ANSWER: Vietnam experienced four waves of the COVID-19 pandemic from early 2020
to the present. Vietnam acted swiftly and decisively when the first wave appeared by
adopting global best practice in public health measures: closing its borders, testing,
contact tracing, isolation and quarantine, closing schools and public gatherings,
wearing face masks, social distancing etc. These initial measures worked well. The
subsequent waves of the pandemic required stringent measures such as lockdowns
and limitations on travel.
One problem Vietnam has confronted throughout this period was acquiring sufficient
vaccines to inoculate vulnerable members of society as well as essentials workers.
The emergence of the Delta variant created a major public health emergency because
of the speed of its spread and lethality. Vietnam’s leaders quickly concluded that its
policy of Zero-COVID was not feasible. In response, Vietnam’s leaders adopted a
proactive two-track policy – acquiring sufficient vaccines to inoculate the population
to be able to return to normal life and resume economic activity.
On the first track, Vietnam launched a highly successful international campaign of
COVID diplomacy to acquire the vaccines needed. Vietnam is now acquiring the
technology and developing the capacity to produce COVID vaccines domestically.
On the second track, Vietnam stepped up its vaccination efforts with a focus on Ho Chi
Minh City and affected provinces in southern Vietnam. High numbers of the
population were vaccinated and the stringent lockdown measures were rescinded.
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Q2. As ASEAN Chair in 2020 and ASEAN member in 2021, Vietnam has put forth several
anti-COVID initiatives, proposals and measures, including activating virtual channels
to ensure continuous communication among ASEAN members, fostering coordination
of dialogues with partners (such as organizing ad-hoc ASEAN+3 discussions), providing
medical equipment and protective gear to many countries in different continents,
establishing a regional reserve for medical equipment and essential products to meet
urgent requirements... What do you think about Vietnam's contributions to boosting
ASEAN's solidarity and cooperation on battling the pandemic and recovering
economy?
ANSWER: All of ASEAN should be grateful that Vietnam was ASEAN Chair in 2020.
Vietnam quickly pivoted from “business as usual” to proactive leadership to address
the COVID-19 pandemic on a regional and global basis. Vietnam pioneered the use of
virtual conferences to bring together both key ministers and high-level government
leaders to adopt policies for Southeast Asia as a region. Vietnam also used its extensive
diplomatic network to solicit the support of major countries for ASEAN and its
members.
Vietnam was also a champion of the developing world, as exemplified by President
Nguyen Xuan Phuc’s address to the General Assembly. Vietnam sought equitable
access to vaccines for all countries and the transfer of intellectual property and
technology to enable local production of COVID vaccines.
From the very beginning, Vietnam set the stage for planning a post-COVID recovery
strategy among ASEAN members.
In sum, Vietnam’s handling of the COVID crisis, while ASEAN Chair and subsequently,
demonstrate why it has the reputation of being a responsible member of the
international community.
Q3. Do you think that some regional issues, especially those are related to South China
Sea disputes and Myanmar situations, can be solved effectively if ASEAN's central role
in general and Vietnam's role in particularly is maintained and enhanced?
ANSWER: Vietnam’s diplomatic engagement in the South China Sea disputes and the
crisis in Myanmar is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a successful resolution
of these hot issues. Vietnam brings domestic political stability and long-range strategic
thinking to the ASEAN table. Vietnam is practical in its approach to these issues. And
Vietnam support a consensual decision-making process.
However, the sufficient conditions for a successful ASEAN rests on the political
stability of its other members and their commitment to ASEAN centrality. Political
instability opens the door for outside powers to interfere in the internal affairs of an
ASEAN member state. Indeed, political instability in Myanmar can impact on
neighbouring states through the outflow of refugees and through disagreement
among China, Russia and the United States.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam: COVID-19, ASEAN and the Crisis in
Myanmar,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 18, 2021. All background
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

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Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

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