Ecotality, Inc.: Cleantech
Ecotality, Inc.: Cleantech
Ecotality, Inc.: Cleantech
[email protected]
Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
Cleantech
ECOtality, Inc. | ECTY - $3.85 - NASDAQ | Buy
Company Update
Created by BlueMatrix
Refer to important disclosure information and rating System Definition on pages 12 - 13 of this report. Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The
research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report
accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or
will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 24 Corporate Plaza | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
ECOtality, Inc. Company Note - February 22, 2011
INVESTMENT SUMMARY
Our view: The ABB/ECTY strategic partnership positions the company for success
beyond the EV Project. It provides the company a competitive advantage vs. its peers.
Exhibit 1: ABB transaction conducted at a 17% premium vs. share price on 1/9/11.
ECTY/ABB Transaction Summary
ABB investment (000s) $10,000
Investment share price $3.84
(1) Common shares issued to ABB (000s) 2,604
(2) Warrants (40% coverage at $4.91/share) 1,042
Page 2 of 13
ECOtality, Inc. Company Note - February 22, 2011
Our view: The EV Project establishes ECTY as the industry leader given the volumes
of chargers that will be deployed over the next year. Although the project has been
delayed a quarter or more, we expect Leaf deliveries—and charger installations—to
accelerate in the near-term.
Overview
In August 2009, the DOE awarded ECTY, in partnership with Nissan, a grant of $99.8 million
to manage the largest deployment of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure in US
history. Dubbed the EV Project, ECTY serves as the project manager and is responsible for
installing ~15,000 chargers in 16 cities over six states and the District of Columbia by 2013.
There are three different types of chargers: Level 2 residential charger (240V), Level 2
commercial charger (240V), and a Level 3 fast charger (480V). Under the project, the grant
provides (1) a home charger at no cost to qualified EV owners and a credit of $1,200 to offset
the charger installation costs, and (2) commercial chargers at no cost to qualified partners.
The goal of the project is to “collect and analyze data to characterize vehicle use in diverse
topographic and climatic conditions, evaluate the effectiveness of charge infrastructure, and
conduct trials of various revenue systems for commercial and public charge infrastructure.”
Page 3 of 13
ECOtality, Inc. Company Note - February 22, 2011
San Francisco, CA
Exhibit 3: Charger installation has been pushed back a quarter or more due to a slower-than-expected
Leaf roll-out.
Mar'10 Aug'10 ABB Call
EV Project Timeline From….
PPT PPT Jan'11
2010
Establish local stakeholder forums Q1'10
Develop deployment guidelines for each state project Q1'10
Long-range infrastructure planning for each project state Q2'10
Complete EV MicroCllimate for each project state Q2'10
Initial infrastructure planning and permitting Q3'10
Begin residential EV equipment installation Q4'10 Q4'10 Q4'10
Vehicle launch Q4'10 Q4'10 Q4'10
2011
Final infrastructure Q2'11 Q2'11 Sep/Oct'11
Start evaluation Q4'11
2012
End evaluation Q3'12 Q4'12 Q4'12
2013
Project completion Q2'13 Q2'13 Q2'13
Source: Company reports; ROTH Capital Partners.
Page 4 of 13
ECOtality, Inc. Company Note - February 22, 2011
EV Project objective • To accelerate market acceptance and adoption of EVs and charging infrastructure
CA Energy Commission grant 8/31/09 $8.0 • Support San Diego Rollout No new chargers
DOE/ARRA grant expansion 6/17/10 $15.0 • Nissan Leafs 1,000 5,700 Leafs total
• Chevy Volt 2,600 One level 2 home chargers per Volt
Bay Area Air Quality Mgmt District 2/2/11 $2.9 • Support San Francisco Rollout Aw arded, but not yet contracted
No new chargers
C. EV Demand Drivers
Page 5 of 13
ECOtality, Inc. Company Note - February 22, 2011
Exhibit 5: Obama raised federal passenger car fuel economy standards to 37.8 MPG by MY’16.
MPG Estimated Federal Fuel Economy Standards
Passenger Car
40
37.8
36.2
35 34.9
34.2
33.3
30 30.2
CAFE Standards since 1975
Previous Standards
25 Obama Administration
20
15
MY'11
MY'78
MY'79
MY'80
MY'81
MY'82
MY'83
MY'84
MY'85
MY'86
MY'87
MY'88
MY'89
MY'90
MY'91
MY'92
MY'93
MY'94
MY'95
MY'96
MY'97
MY'98
MY'99
MY'00
MY'01
MY'02
MY'03
MY'04
MY'05
MY'06
MY'07
MY'08
MY'09
MY'10
MY'12
MY'13
MY'14
MY'15
MY'16
MY'17
MY'18
MY'19
MY'20
Source: EPA/DOT Light Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions Standards and CAFÉ Standards; Final Rule; Federal Register (May 7,
2010); ROTH Capital Partners.
Exhibit 6: The EV tax credit will phase-out over 15 to 18 months after the initial 200,000 cars.
Phase-out Schecule for Federal Income Tax Credits for Plug-in EV
200,000th plug-in Phase-out starts Beginning of fourth Credit ends
electric drive vehicle beginning of second calendar quarter after beginning
produced by the calendar quarter after 200,000-vehicle mark sixth
manufacturer on 200,000-vehicle mark reached, credit calendar
Day 1. reached. decreases again. quarter.
Full Credit Amount 50% of Full Amount 25% of Full Amount No Credit
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Year 1 Year 2
Source: EERE; ROTH Capital Partners.
Page 6 of 13
ECOtality, Inc. Company Note - February 22, 2011
Demand Driver #4: Oil prices are up, while power prices have remained flat.
The threat of high oil prices, in our view, serves as a demand driver of electric and plug-in
hybrid vehicles. The volatility of oil prices is much greater than that of electricity prices. In the
exhibits below, we present oil and electricity prices over the past 15 years. Since 1995, oil
prices are up approximately 400%, while residential power prices are up only 35%. Since the
last recession, oil prices have soared from a trough of $35 per barrel to over $80/barrel, up
over 100%. Retail electricity prices, however, are essentially flat since the recession, though
they may be experiencing some year-over-year growth ahead given the economic recovery.
(NB: Neither data series below has been inflation-adjusted.)
Exhibit 8: Oil prices are up ~400% since 1995… Exhibit 9: …vs. power prices up 35%.
$/Barrel WTI Crude Oil Avg. Retail Price of Electricity
Cents/kWh Residential Sector Electricity prices
$160
14 are flat since
the recession.
$140
12
$120
10
$100
Oil prices are
up ~400% 8
$80 since 1995.
Electricity prices
$60 6
are up only 35%
since 1995.
$40 4
Jan-96
Dec-96
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Jul-95
Jul-96
Jul-97
Jul-98
Jul-99
Jul-00
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Source: Bloomberg; ROTH Capital Partners. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; ROTH Capital Partners.
Page 7 of 13
ECOtality, Inc. Company Note - February 22, 2011
RECENT RESULTS
Q3’10. ECTY posted an upside EPS of -$0.34 vs. consensus of -$0.78, but downside
revenues of $3.2 million vs. consensus of $15.8 million. The company generated a gross
margin of 3% for Q3’10 due to a special cost reimbursement contract with the Department of
Energy. Some key takeaways were (1) the company successfully expanded its DOE
sponsored EV project to 16 cities, and (2) the company expected Blink Level 2 and Level 3
chargers to be available/installed in late Q4’10/Q1’11, respectively.
EARNINGS OUTLOOK
We recently transferred coverage of ECTY to Philip Shen from Brian Kremer. Given the
upcoming release of Q4’10 results, we plan on updating our estimates following the Q4’10
earnings call.
Page 8 of 13
ECOtality, Inc. Company Note - February 22, 2011
VALUATION
Our $9 price target is based on an 18x multiple applied to our estimated 2015 earnings of $0.95/share
(assumes market share of 16%) discounted back to 2011 at 15% ($0.49/share). We believe this multiple is
reasonable for a company with expected earnings growth of >25%.
Factors that would prevent shares of ECTY from reaching our price target include declining petroleum prices,
reversal of trends supporting stronger environmental regulations, failure to achieve steady reductions in
battery pricing, inability to establish sustainable commercial business models, and poor vehicle/EV Project
performance.
RISKS
Dependency upon on-road electric vehicle (EV) market. The company's EV charging business is highly
dependent upon the adoption of EV for on-road use at large commercial scales. Acceptance of EV globally
remains dependent upon a number of factors including the price of fossil fuels, the cost of battery systems,
environmental regulations, and customer acceptance. Decreases in fossil fuel prices, sustained or increasing
battery costs, weakening of environmental regulations and failure to win over consumers could all impact
negatively ECTY's US business.
Exposure to government grant. The company's near-term revenue (next 3 years) is highly concentrated
through its $99.8 million cost reimbursable contract with the US Department of Energy. Failure by the
company to meet its requirements under the contract could result in loss of the grant. Government grants are
also subject to cancellation and modification with little or no notice.
Developing business and revenue model. In the early stages of a developing market, the company is
exploring a variety of business models, many of which have yet to be put in place or tested on a large scale.
Over the next two years, it may be difficult to forecast revenues given the nature of DOE and government
contracts.
Increasing competition from above and below. As the electric transportation sector garners greater
attention, companies are entering the industry at an accelerating rate. In some instances, such companies are
much larger, with significantly stronger balance sheets and R&D resources. Additionally, the company is
expected to face increased competition from well funded start-ups.
Exposure to China. The company is setting up joint ventures in China. Some of the general risks related to
doing business in China include government interference with the economy, foreign currency control,
international trade restrictions, co-existence of state-owned and private companies, and governmental control
of important natural resources. From time to time, the government may enact new laws or issue administrative
regulations to encourage or discourage the development of a particular industry.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
ECOtality, Inc. (ECTY) provides electric vehicle infrastructure products and solutions that are used in on-road
grid-connected (including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (EV)) and
industrial applications (e.g., material handling and airport electric ground support applications). The company's
primary product offering, through its Transportation Engineering Corporation (eTec) subsidiary, is the
Minit-Charger line of advanced battery fast-charge systems. The company has been awarded over $115
million in grants (The EV Project) by the US Department of Energy to manage deployment of charging
infrastructure to support ~8,500 EVs in six states and the District of Columbia. Through its other subsidiaries,
Innergy Power Corporation, and ECOtality Stores (dba Fuel Cell Store), the company also develops and sells
specialty solar products, advanced battery systems, and hydrogen and fuel cell systems. The company is
headquartered in San Francisco, CA.
Page 9 of 13
ECOtality, Inc. Company Note - February 22, 2011
MENTIONED COMPANIES
Page 10 of 13
ECOtality, Inc. Company Note - February 22, 2011
ECOtality, Inc.
Income Statement
(dollars in millions)
F2008A F2009A Mar-10A Jun-10A Sep-10A Dec-10E F2010E Mar-11E Jun-11E Sep-11E Dec-11E F2011E F2012E
Revenue 11,187 8,602 2,700 3,412 3,197 3,600 12,908 8,525 19,775 21,125 17,435 66,860 68,119
Cost of goods sold 7,109 4,960 2,392 3,062 3,085 3,510 12,048 9,501 25,887 27,750 14,900 78,037 37,865
Gross profit 4,079 3,642 309 350 112 90 860 (976) (6,112) (6,625) 2,536 (11,177) 30,254
Expenses
Depreciation 616 464 142 149 136 140 567 140 140 140 140 560 560
General and administrative 6,992 16,807 2,240 7,769 2,878 2,950 15,836 3,050 3,100 3,150 3,150 12,450 13,100
Research and development 293 19 13 51 135 125 325 150 150 150 150 600 1,600
Settlement Expense
Impairment Expense
Total expenses 7,900 17,290 2,394 7,970 3,149 3,215 16,728 3,340 3,390 3,440 3,440 13,610 15,260
Operating income (loss) (3,822) (13,648) (2,085) (7,619) (3,037) (3,125) (15,867) (4,316) (9,502) (10,065) (905) (24,787) 14,994
Other income/expense
Interest income 17 6 15 9 11 0 35 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other income 365 0 0 318 0 0 318 0 0 0 0 0 0
Interest expense 4,620 15,915 329 (323) 5 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0
(Gain)/loss on disposal of assets 7 (49) 0 (12) (124) 0 (136) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gain (loss) from operations before income taxes (8,067) (29,508) (2,399) (6,982) (3,156) (3,125) (16,220) (4,316) (9,502) (10,065) (905) (24,787) 14,994
Provision for income taxes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GAAP net income (loss) (8,067) (29,508) (2,399) (6,982) (3,156) (3,125) (16,220) (4,316) (9,502) (10,065) (905) (24,787) 14,994
GAAP EPS ($3.85) ($8.16) ($0.29) ($0.78) ($0.34) ($0.34) ($1.81) ($0.28) ($0.61) ($0.65) ($0.06) ($1.59) $0.63
Fully diluted shares outstanding (including Preferred) 17,500 17,500 17,411 17,411 17,455 23,661 23,661 23,661 23,661 23,661 23,661
Weighted average number of common shares outstanding - basic and diluted 2,095 3,614 8,297 8,994 9,314 9,314 8,980 15,564 15,564 15,564 15,564 15,564 15,564
Depreciation & amortization 2,459 2,568 160 166 176 140 642 140 140 140 140 560 560
EBITDA (970) (11,019) (1,895) (7,130) (2,964) (2,985) (15,532) (4,176) (9,362) (9,925) (765) (24,227) 15,554
Margin Analysis
Gross Margin 36.5% 42.3% 11.4% 10.3% 3.5% 2.5% 6.7% -11.5% -30.9% -31.4% 14.5% -16.7% 44.4%
General and administrative expenses 62.5% 195.4% 82.9% 227.7% 90.0% 81.9% 122.7% 35.8% 15.7% 14.9% 18.1% 18.6% 19.2%
Research & development 2.6% 0.2% 0.5% 1.5% 4.2% 3.5% 2.5% 1.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 2.3%
Operating Margin -34.2% -158.7% -77.2% -223.3% -95.0% -86.8% -122.9% -50.6% -48.0% -47.6% -5.2% -37.1% 22.0%
Net Margin -72.1% -343.0% -88.8% -204.7% -98.7% -86.8% -125.7% -50.6% -48.0% -47.6% -5.2% -37.1% 22.0%
Tax Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Page 11 of 13
ECOtality, Inc. Company Note - February 22, 2011
Disclosures:
Within the last twelve months, ROTH has received compensation for investment banking services from ECOtality, Inc.
ROTH makes a market in shares of ECOtality, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis.
ROTH and/or its employees, officers, directors and owners own options, rights or warrants to purchase shares of ECOtality,
Inc. stock.
On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral.
Rating and Price Target History for: ECOtality, Inc. (ECTY) as of 02-21-2011
04/23/10 06/18/10
B:$8 B:$9
20
16
12
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011
Created by BlueMatrix
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a
rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years.
Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate
received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month.
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any
given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated
12-month price target.
Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following:
Buy: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation of a total return of at
least 10% over the next 12 months.
Neutral: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation of a total return
between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months.
Sell: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation that the price will decline
by more than 10% over the next 12 months.
Not Rated: A security which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates that we have no opinion or
expectations as to the price of the security over the next 12 months.
Not Covered (NC): ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about the security.
Page 12 of 13
ECOtality, Inc. Company Note - February 22, 2011
ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business
relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months.The material, information and
facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from
sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as
a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon
request. This is not, however, an offer or solicitation of the securities discussed. Any opinions or estimates in this report are
subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual
results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high
degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the
express written permission of ROTH. Copyright 2011. Member: FINRA/SIPC.
Page 13 of 13