POLITICAL OPINION POLL JULY 2021

METHODOLOGY
Dates of Field Work 22ND -30TH OF JULY 2021

Sample Size 3127

Sampling Methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Spread across
all the 47 counties in Kenya. Sample split was guided by all adults age 18+
proportionate to size as per the KNBS Census, Sept. 2019.
Population Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above living in all the 47 counties of Kenya

Data Collection Methodology Computer Aided Telephone Interview (CATI)

Sampling Error +/- 1.75 % with a 95% confidence level (Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)

Interview Languages English/Swahili

Finance The Survey was funded by the Radio Africa Limited.

 POLL SAMPLE
GENDER Sample % Sample
Female 1,560 50% County Sample (3127) % County (3127) %
Nairobi 334 10.7% Bomet 51 1.6%
Male 1,567 50% Kiambu 180 5.8% Busia 51 1.6%
TOTAL 3,127 100% Nakuru 140 4.5% Turkana 50 1.6%
Kakamega 108 3.5% Kwale 49 1.6%
Meru 105 3.4% Kirinyaga 46 1.5%
Machakos 101 3.2% Garissa 44 1.4%
Bungoma 92 2.9% Embu 44 1.4%
Mombasa 88 2.8% Nyandarua 42 1.3%
Age Group Sample % Kilifi 85 2.7% Nyamira 38 1.2%
18-24 865 28% Kisii 77 2.5% Wajir 38 1.2%
Uasin Gishu 76 2.4% Mandera 37 1.2%
25-29 885 28% Murang'a 75 2.4% Baringo 37 1.2%
30-34 501 16%
Kajiado 73 2.3% Vihiga 36 1.2%
Kisumu 72 2.3% Laikipia 35 1.1%
35-39 429 14% Kitui 69 2.2% West Pokot 35 1.1%
Migori 66 2.1% Tharaka-Nithi 35 1.1%
40-49 271 9% Makueni 66 2.1% Elgeyo/Marakwet 35 1.1%
50+ 176 6% Homa Bay 63 2.0% Marsabit 35 1.1%
Narok 60 1.9% Taita Taveta 35 1.1%
Siaya 59 1.9% Tana River 35 1.1%
Nyeri 57 1.8% Samburu 35 1.1%
Trans Nzoia 57 1.8% Isiolo 35 1.1%
Kericho 56 1.8% Lamu 35 1.1%
Nandi 55 1.8% ** Boosted Sample
Table of Contents

Problems Facing Kenya

We take a look at the most pressing issues facing Politics
Kiambaa constituency residents that they would like We measure the popularity of the potential MP
the county government to prioritize solving. We also candidates as well as probe on the likelihood of the
look at the Economic development ratings by the registered voters in the county to participate in the
current Government. constituency by-election. Party affiliation frequency
is also tracked.

BBI Media
BBI We measure the reach of radio stations as well as
We explore the level of support for the BBI document. the consumption of social media within the Kenyan
public
TOP PROBLEMS CURRENTLY FACING THE COUNTRY
71% Unemployment

70% High cost of living

37% Corruption

26% Poor healthcare

21% Increased crime

 62%
64%
Unemployment/Lack of job opportunities

58%
71%
65%
67%
High cost of living
78%
70%

30%
Corruption 46%
45%
37%

20%
22%
Poor health care
28%
26%

16%
14%

Security: Increased crime

12%
21%

8%
Jul-2020

11%

Poor quality education

13%
12%
19%
Oct-2020

8%

Food insecurity
6%
9%
Jan-2021

Poor maternal and reproductive health

care
0% 1% 1%
9%
9%
July 2021

15%

Poverty/Rich-Poor gap
16%
8%
11%
8%

Drought
4%
7%
10%9%

Poor roads
5% 6%
TOP PROBLEMS CURRENTLY FACING THE COUNTRY - TREND

10%
11%

Water shortage
6% 6%
2%

Land issues (title deeds)

5% 3% 5%
 TOP PROBLEMS FACING THE COUNTRY BY DEMOGRAPHICS
Most Pressing Issues Total Male Female 18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-49 50+
Unemployment/Lack of job opportunities 71% 73% 70% 77% 73% 71% 68% 64% 58%
High cost of living 70% 71% 69% 70% 69% 73% 65% 75% 72%
Corruption 37% 38% 35% 35% 38% 38% 36% 36% 42%
Poor health care 26% 24% 29% 21% 26% 24% 31% 33% 26%
Security: Increased crime 21% 21% 21% 21% 22% 21% 19% 18% 26%
Poor quality education 12% 12% 12% 13% 10% 9% 14% 13% 9%
Food insecurity 9% 9% 9% 8% 10% 9% 10% 7% 13%
Poor maternal and reproductive health care 9% 7% 11% 7% 10% 7% 13% 10% 7%
Poverty/Rich-Poor gap 8% 8% 8% 9% 7% 11% 6% 7% 8%
Drought 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 9% 9% 8% 9%
Poor roads 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 4% 7%
Water shortage 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 5% 4% 5% 4%
Land issues (title deeds) 5% 5% 4% 5% 4% 5% 6% 5% 6%
Devolution 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 5% 4%
Ethnic tension 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1%
Security: Terrorism 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 0%
 TOP PROBLEMS FACING THE COUNTRY BY REGION
LOWER SOUTH UPPER NORTH NORTH
Most Pressing Issue Facing the Country Total EASTERN WESTERN NAIROBI COAST CENTRAL RIFT EASTERN NYANZA RIFT EASTERN
Unemployment/Lack of job opportunities 71% 85% 81% 68% 57% 72% 85% 61% 72% 71% 71%
High cost of living 70% 46% 74% 78% 62% 70% 59% 76% 72% 77% 77%
Corruption 37% 29% 42% 48% 36% 43% 17% 47% 24% 35% 19%
Poor health care 26% 25% 20% 16% 26% 26% 41% 24% 30% 30% 35%
Security: Increased crime 21% 18% 17% 30% 25% 21% 8% 32% 18% 16% 15%
Poor quality education 12% 16% 13% 12% 11% 11% 13% 10% 10% 10% 14%
Food insecurity 9% 15% 5% 5% 13% 10% 12% 4% 12% 8% 12%
Poor maternal and reproductive health care 9% 28% 5% 3% 4% 10% 22% 7% 12% 3% 8%
Poverty/Rich-Poor gap 8% 6% 11% 9% 5% 7% 5% 7% 9% 11% 7%
Drought 7% 16% 7% 1% 3% 5% 21% 3% 11% 8% 13%
Poor roads 6% 2% 7% 4% 13% 4% 4% 8% 4% 8% 3%
Water shortage 6% 4% 6% 7% 14% 3% 1% 7% 3% 5% 13%
Land issues (title deeds) 5% 3% 1% 2% 7% 7% 3% 8% 6% 5% 0%
Devolution 3% 1% 3% 1% 6% 1% 2% 1% 5% 4% 3%
Ethnic tension 2% 0% 2% 1% 5% 0% 1% 1% 2% 4% 2%
Security: Terrorism 2% 1% 1% 0% 5% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 6%

*** See the glossary for regions definition

 SATISFACTION OF JUBILEE GOVT ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT PERFORMANCE
H OW S AT I S F I E D A R E YO U W I T H T H E P E R F O R M A N C E O F T H E C U R R E N T
G OV E R N M E N T I N T E R M S O F E C O N O M I C D E V E LO P M E N T ?
32%
28%
24%

14%

2%

Very Satisfied Moderately Satisfied Neither satisfied nor Moderately dissatisfied Very dissatisfied
dissatisfied

• 56% of Kenyans are dissatisfied with the government’s economic performance.

•Only 16% of the respondents are satisfied with the Jubilee Government’s performance in
terms of Economic Development.
 SATISFACTION OF JUBILEE GOVT ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT PERFORMANCE (REGIONS)
Very Satisfied Moderately Satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Moderately dissatisfied Very dissatisfied
45%
41%
40% 39%
37%
35% 34%
33% 33% 33%
32% 32% 32% 32%
31% 31% 31% 31% 30% 29%
30% 29% 29% 28%
28%
25% 26% 26%
25% 24%
24%
23%
21% 22% 21%
20% 21%
19%
20% 19%
16%
14% 14% 14%
15%
13%
12%
10% 9%
10% 8%
6%
5% 4%
3% 2%
2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0%
0%
Total NAIROBI CENTRAL UPPER EASTERN WESTERN LOWER EASTERN COAST NYANZA NORTH RIFT NORTH EASTERN SOUTH RIFT
 TOP PROBLEMS FACING YOUR COUNTY BY REGION
Most Pressing Issue affecting your LOWER SOUTH UPPER NORTH NORTH
County TOTAL EASTERN WESTERN NAIROBI COAST CENTRAL RIFT EASTERN NYANZA RIFT EASTERN
High cost of living 59% 37% 64% 65% 49% 67% 48% 55% 52% 66% 74%
Unemployment/Lack of job opportunities 52% 58% 60% 42% 36% 58% 66% 45% 52% 53% 51%
Poor health care 28% 24% 27% 20% 29% 28% 38% 27% 29% 33% 38%
Corruption 26% 20% 28% 34% 25% 29% 10% 38% 25% 19% 13%
Security: Increased crime 22% 16% 17% 35% 26% 22% 8% 30% 19% 17% 24%
Poor roads 18% 18% 21% 23% 21% 12% 18% 24% 16% 17% 7%
Water shortage 16% 23% 13% 26% 23% 9% 9% 16% 14% 17% 22%
Poor quality education 16% 21% 22% 16% 16% 15% 15% 16% 12% 14% 14%
Food insecurity 13% 20% 9% 5% 18% 12% 16% 6% 16% 15% 21%
Poor maternal and reproductive health care 11% 29% 10% 3% 10% 11% 19% 8% 16% 6% 9%
Drought 10% 15% 10% 0% 4% 8% 26% 3% 15% 17% 13%
Land issues (title deeds) 9% 7% 5% 5% 10% 10% 8% 13% 14% 11% 2%
Poverty/Rich-Poor gap 6% 2% 5% 9% 4% 9% 3% 10% 7% 5% 3%
Security: Terrorism 3% 2% 1% 0% 10% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 7%
Ethnic tension 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 1% 5% 0% 2% 4% 2%
Gender inequality 2% 1% 0% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 0%
Inequality in youth rights 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0%
Devolution 1% 0% 1% 0% 4% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1%
SATISFACTION OF COUNTY GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT PERFORMANCE
H OW S AT I S F I E D A R E YO U W I T H T H E P E R F O R M A N C E O F YO U R C O U N T Y
G OV E R N M E N T I N T E R M S O F E C O N O M I C D E V E LO P M E N T ?

34%
27%
20%
17%

3%

Very Satisfied Moderately Satisfied Neither satisfied nor Moderately dissatisfied Very dissatisfied
dissatisfied

• 47% of respondents were dissatisfied with the performance of county governments.

• Only 20% are satisfied with the performance of their respective county governments.
SATISFACTION OF COUNTY GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PERFORMANCE
Very Moderately Neither satisfied Moderately Very Very Moderately Neither satisfied Moderately Very
# County Satisfied Satisfied nor dissatisfied dissatisfied dissatisfied # County Satisfied Satisfied nor dissatisfied dissatisfied dissatisfied
- Total 3% 17% 34% 27% 20% 24 NAROK 0% 22% 14% 39% 24%
1 KAJIADO 18% 30% 27% 16% 8% 25 SAMBURU 0% 20% 34% 43% 3%
2 MURANGA 17% 40% 37% 3% 3% 26 SIAYA 0% 20% 27% 26% 27%
3 TURKANA 16% 48% 26% 2% 8% 27 BARINGO 0% 19% 41% 24% 16%
4 KWALE 10% 18% 18% 28% 26% 28 KIAMBU 0% 17% 29% 29% 25%
5 VIHIGA 9% 38% 34% 9% 9% 29 WEST POKOT 0% 16% 29% 16% 39%
6 EMBU 9% 32% 32% 25% 2% 30 TRANS NZOIA 0% 14% 35% 32% 19%
7 LAIKIPIA 8% 13% 29% 13% 37% 31 NYANDARUA 0% 13% 60% 18% 10%
8 MAKUENI 6% 13% 17% 48% 17% 32 KITUI 0% 10% 12% 13% 65%
9 HOMA BAY 5% 40% 32% 21% 1% 33 MIGORI 0% 9% 18% 46% 26%
10 LAMU 4% 25% 51% 16% 4% 34 NANDI 0% 9% 21% 49% 21%
11 NAIROBI 4% 23% 27% 27% 19% 35 KISII 0% 7% 38% 38% 18%
12 NYERI 4% 16% 56% 21% 4% 36 ISIOLO 0% 6% 51% 31% 11%
13 MOMBASA 3% 43% 39% 13% 2% 37 WAJIR 0% 5% 29% 42% 24%
14 GARISSA 2% 25% 45% 27% 0% 38 KERICHO 0% 4% 71% 20% 5%
15 KAKAMEGA 2% 1% 21% 38% 38% 39 MANDERA 0% 3% 19% 41% 38%
16 KISUMU 1% 10% 33% 40% 15% 40 KIRINYAGA 0% 2% 49% 31% 18%
17 MACHAKOS 1% 7% 40% 18% 34% 41 BUSIA 0% 0% 77% 15% 8%
18 NAKURU 1% 7% 41% 37% 15% 42 TAITA TAVETA 0% 0% 54% 31% 14%
19 ELGEYO MARAKWET 0% 32% 35% 26% 6% 43 NYAMIRA 0% 0% 44% 26% 29%
20 UASIN GISHU 0% 28% 54% 11% 7% 44 TANA RIVER 0% 0% 42% 36% 22%
21 KILIFI 0% 27% 30% 40% 3% 45 MARSABIT 0% 0% 37% 31% 31%
22 THARAKA NITHI 0% 23% 46% 17% 14% 46 MERU 0% 0% 36% 26% 38%
23 BUNGOMA 0% 23% 26% 16% 35% 47 BOMET 0% 0% 8% 19% 73%
 COUNTY GOVERNMENTS’ SATISFACTION (VERY SATISFIED + MODERATELY
SATISFIED) RANKING
Satisfied (Very Satisfied + Very Moderately Satisfied (Very Satisfied + Very Moderately
County Moderately Satisfied) Satisfied Satisfied # County Moderately Satisfied) Satisfied Satisfied
TOTAL 20% 3% 17% 24 KIAMBU 17% 0% 17%
TURKANA 64% 16% 48% 25 WEST POKOT 16% 0% 16%
MURANGA 57% 17% 40% 26 TRANS NZOIA 14% 0% 14%
KAJIADO 48% 18% 30% 27 NYANDARUA 13% 0% 13%
VIHIGA 47% 9% 38% 28 KISUMU 11% 1% 10%
MOMBASA 46% 3% 43% 29 KITUI 10% 0% 10%
HOMA BAY 45% 5% 40% 30 MIGORI 9% 0% 9%
EMBU 41% 9% 32% 31 NANDI 9% 0% 9%
ELGEYO MARAKWET 32% 0% 32% 32 MACHAKOS 8% 1% 7%
LAMU 29% 4% 25% 33 NAKURU 8% 1% 7%
KWALE 28% 10% 18% 34 KISII 7% 0% 7%
UASIN GISHU 28% 0% 28% 35 ISIOLO 6% 0% 6%
NAIROBI 27% 4% 23% 36 WAJIR 5% 0% 5%
GARISSA 27% 2% 25% 37 KERICHO 4% 0% 4%
KILIFI 27% 0% 27% 38 KAKAMEGA 3% 2% 1%
THARAKA NITHI 23% 0% 23% 39 MANDERA 3% 0% 3%
BUNGOMA 23% 0% 23% 40 KIRINYAGA 2% 0% 2%
NAROK 22% 0% 22% 41 BUSIA 0% 0% 0%
LAIKIPIA 21% 8% 13% 42 TAITA TAVETA 0% 0% 0%
NYERI 20% 4% 16% 43 NYAMIRA 0% 0% 0%
SAMBURU 20% 0% 20% 44 TANA RIVER 0% 0% 0%
SIAYA 20% 0% 20% 45 MARSABIT 0% 0% 0%
MAKUENI 19% 6% 13% 46 MERU 0% 0% 0%
BARINGO 19% 0% 19% 47 BOMET 0% 0% 0%
 BBI SUPPORT
DON’T CARE EITHER WAY
14% of the respondents do not care about
BBI

14% SUPPORT BB1

16% 16% of the respondents support the BBI

14%
DON’T KNOW MUCH ABOUT BBI
14% of the respondents do not know the
contents of BBI and as such have not formed
opinion.
56%
DO NOT SUPPORT BBI
56% of the respondents do not support the BBI
 BBI SUPPORT TREND
Jul-2020 Oct-2020 Jan-2021 July 2021
60%
56%

50%
43%
11%
40% 38%
34%
33%
30%
30% 33%
25%
21% 23% 23% 23%
20%
16%
14% 14%
11%
10% 11%
10%

34%
0%
Support BBI Do not support BBI Don't know much about BBI Don't care either way

BBI support has taken a further hit, dropping 5% of nationwide support since January 2021
 BBI SUPPORT TREND - CENTRAL
Jul-2020 Oct-2020 Jan-2021 July 2021
60%
55%

50% 49%
46% 46%
11%
40%

30%
26% 33%
25%
23%
20% 20%
20% 18% 17%
15% 14% 14%
12% 11%
10%
10%

34%
0%
Support It Don’t Support It Don’t Know about it Don’t Care Either Way
 BBI SUPPORT TREND - NAIROBI
Jul-2020 Oct-2020 Jan-2021 July 2021
60%
53%
50%
50%
45% 11%
40%
36%
33%
30%
26%33%
21% 22% 23% 21%
19% 20%
20%
13% 13% 12%
10% 8%
6%
34%
0%
Support It Don’t Support It Don’t Know about it Don’t Care Either Way
 BBI SUPPORT BY REGIONS
Don’t Care Either Don’t Know about
REGION Support It Don’t Support It
Way it

Total 16% (21%) 56% (43%) 14% (11%) 14% (25%)

NYANZA 31% (46%) 56% (27%) 7% (9%) 6% (19%)
COAST 20% (16%) 46% (50%) 20% (11%) 13% (23%)
CENTRAL 18% (15%) 55% (46%) 10% (14%) 17% (25%)
UPPER EASTERN 14% (18%) 51% (35%) 13% (7%) 22% (40%)
LOWER EASTERN 14% (26%) 69% (44%) 11% (8%) 6% (23%)
NAIROBI 13% (22%) 53% (50%) 20% (8%) 13% (19%)
WESTERN 12% (22%) 55% (51%) 14% (3%) 19% (25%)
NORTH RIFT 10% (13%) 58% (41%) 16% (19%) 16% (27%)
NORTH EASTERN 8% (21%) 50% (31%) 22% (13%) 20% (35%)
SOUTH RIFT 5% (13%) 84% (51%) 7% (15%) 5% (21%)

(*) – Previous study (January 2021)

 WILLINGNESS TO VOTE ON BBI REFERENDUM
If there is a BBI referendum will you actually take REGION WILL VOTE WON'T VOTE
the time to go out and vote? Total 33% 67%
COAST 52% 48%
NYANZA 41% 59%
NAIROBI 37% 63%
CENTRAL 37% 63%
NORTH RIFT 34% 66%
UPPER EASTERN 29% 71%
Yes
33% NORTH EASTERN 23% 77%
WESTERN 22% 78%
LOWER EASTERN 18% 82%
SOUTH RIFT 15% 85%

No
67% Voter apathy towards the BBI referendum
is greatest in the South Rift and Lower
Eastern regions.
POLITICS &
ELECTIONS
IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY, WHO WOULD
YOU VOTE FOR AS PRESIDENT? Kivutha Kibwana Others
Kalonzo Musyoka 1%
Hassan Joho 1%
2%
2%
Alfred Mutua
3%
Musalia Mudavadi
3%
Fred Matiangi
5%
William Ruto
Gideon Moi 43%
5%

Won't Vote
6%

Undecided
15%

Raila Odinga
14%
 IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU
VOTE FOR AS PRESIDENT (TREND) Oct-2020 Jan-2020 Jul-2021
42.7%
40.7%
38.8%

28.2%

21.0%
19.9%

14.2% 14.8%

8.3% 8.1%
5.2% 5.1% 5.7% 5.6% 5.5%
3.7%
3.0% 3.4% 3.3%
2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8%
1.8% 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
0.7% 0.9% 0.7%
0.7% 0.6% 0.6%
0.5%

William Ruto Raila Odinga Gideon Moi Fred Matiangi Musalia Alfred Mutua Hassan Joho Kalonzo Kivutha Others Undecided Won't Vote
Mudavadi Musyoka Kibwana
If elections were held today, who would you vote for as
President? (By Demographics)
Candidates Total Male Female 18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-49 50+
William Ruto 42.7% 43.8% 41.5% 44.4% 41.7% 45.6% 44.8% 34.7% 40.1%
Raila Odinga 14.2% 15.8% 12.6% 12.3% 15.3% 13.1% 13.3% 18.0% 17.0%
Gideon Moi 5.2% 4.9% 5.5% 4.5% 5.8% 4.8% 6.3% 4.3% 4.9%
Fred Matiangi 5.1% 4.9% 5.3% 3.9% 5.4% 3.6% 9.1% 3.7% 3.8%
Musalia Mudavadi 3.4% 3.3% 3.4% 3.3% 3.6% 4.0% 1.8% 4.3% 3.8%
Alfred Mutua 2.5% 2.7% 2.3% 2.5% 3.4% 2.6% 1.4% 2.3% 1.6%
Hassan Joho 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 2.4% 2.1% 1.4% 2.0% 2.7%
Kalonzo Musyoka 1.8% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 2.4% 2.2% 1.7% 2.2%
Kivutha Kibwana 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 0.9% 2.6% 1.0% 1.3% 0.5%
Mohammed Abduba Dida 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Mukhisa Kituyi 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5%
Ekuru Aukot 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Wycliffe Oparanya 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Uhuru Kenyatta 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Undecided 14.8% 13.7% 16.0% 16.8% 13.4% 12.1% 13.5% 20.0% 13.7%
Won't Vote 5.5% 4.2% 6.8% 5.6% 4.7% 6.2% 4.6% 6.3% 8.8%
If elections were held today, who would you vote for as
President? (By Regions)
LOWER NORTH NORTH SOUTH UPPER
Candidates TOTAL CENTRAL COAST EASTERN NAIROBI EASTERN RIFT NYANZA RIFT EASTERN WESTERN
William Ruto 43% 49% 32% 30% 40% 34% 56% 37% 59% 40% 45%
Raila Odinga 14% 6% 15% 8% 14% 17% 9% 39% 9% 16% 10%
Gideon Moi 5% 8% 5% 8% 1% 2% 9% 5% 9% 4% 0%
Fred Matiangi 5% 10% 1% 11% 1% 7% 1% 7% 11% 1% 4%
Musalia Mudavadi 3% 1% 5% 0% 2% 0% 2% 3% 1% 1% 15%
Alfred Mutua 3% 1% 5% 10% 3% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1%
Hassan Joho 2% 0% 13% 0% 1% 6% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Kalonzo Musyoka 2% 0% 3% 15% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Kivutha Kibwana 1% 1% 1% 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0%
Abduba Dida 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mukhisa Kituyi 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Ekuru Aukot 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Wycliffe Oparanya 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Uhuru Kenyatta 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Undecided 15% 20% 12% 6% 21% 24% 13% 5% 9% 20% 17%
Won't Vote 6% 5% 4% 3% 12% 3% 5% 2% 1% 14% 5%
Regardless of whom you will vote for as President,
who do you think will win?
Won't Vote
3%

Others Can't tell

1% 15%

Kivutha Kibwana
1%

Hassan Joho
Alfred Mutua 1%
1%
Kalonzo Musyoka
1%
William Ruto
Musalia Mudavadi 49%
2%
Fred Matiang"i
5%

Gideon Moi
5%

Raila Odinga
16%
REGARDLESS OF WHOM YOU WILL VOTE FOR AS PRESIDENT,
WHO DO YOU THINK WILL WIN? (TREND)
Oct-2020 Jan-2021 Jul-2021
60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
William Raila Gideon Moi Fred Musalia Kalonzo Alfred Hassan Joho Other Can't Tell Won't Vote
Ruto Odinga Matiangi Mudavadi Musyoka Mutua
Regardless of whom you will vote for as President, who do
you think will win? (By Demographics)

CANDIDATES TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-49 50+
William Ruto 49% 51% 47% 52% 48% 50% 50% 42% 48%
Raila Odinga 15% 17% 14% 12% 18% 17% 12% 21% 17%
Gideon Moi 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5%
Fred Matiang"i 5% 5% 5% 3% 5% 4% 9% 4% 3%
Musalia Mudavadi 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% 1%
Kalonzo Musyoka 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2%
Alfred Mutua 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Hassan Joho 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Kivutha Kibwana 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1%
Others 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1%
Can’t Tell 15% 13% 17% 17% 14% 13% 13% 18% 15%
Won't Vote 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5%
 Regardless of whom you will vote for as President, who do
you think will win? (By Regions)
LOWER NORTH NORTH SOUTH UPPER
CANDIDATES TOTAL CENTRAL COAST EASTERN NAIROBI EASTERN RIFT NYANZA RIFT EASTERN WESTERN
William Ruto 49% 54% 41% 34% 50% 43% 63% 42% 59% 45% 51%
Raila Odinga 15% 8% 17% 14% 16% 18% 11% 30% 8% 17% 18%
Gideon Moi 5% 8% 3% 7% 3% 2% 6% 5% 8% 6% 1%
Fred Matiang"i 5% 9% 1% 11% 1% 7% 0% 6% 11% 1% 3%
Musalia Mudavadi 2% 0% 4% 0% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 8%
Kalonzo Musyoka 1% 0% 2% 13% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Alfred Mutua 1% 1% 3% 6% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hassan Joho 1% 0% 9% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Kivutha Kibwana 1% 0% 1% 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0%
Others 1% 1% 3% 0% 0% 3% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1%
Can't Tell 15% 14% 14% 6% 21% 23% 12% 12% 12% 23% 15%
Won't Vote 3% 4% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3% 2% 1% 5% 2%
WHICH POLITICAL PARTY ARE YOU CLOSEST TO TO?

UDA
24%
None
32%

Others
8% ODM
15%
WIPER
3% Jubilee Party
NASA
14%
4%
 GLOSSARY
REGIONS DEFINITION

REGIONS COUNTIES
Central Kiambu, Nakuru, Murang'a, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Laikipia
Nairobi Nairobi
Western Kakamega, Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Busia, Vihiga
Upper Eastern Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Marsabit, Isiolo
Lower Eastern Machakos, Kitui, Makueni
Coast Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Tana River, Taita Taveta, Lamu
South Rift Kajiado, Narok, Bomet
Nyanza Kisumu, Kisii, Homa Bay, Siaya, Migori, Nyamira
North Rift Uasin Gishu, Turkana, Kericho, Nandi, Baringo, West Pokot, Samburu, Elgeyo/Marakwet
North Eastern Wajir, Garissa, Mandera