B2G 2019 Indonesia

BROWN TO GREEN: 2019
THE G20 TRANSITION TOWARDS A NET-ZERO EMISSIONS ECONOMY
INDONESIA
Indonesia’s greenhouse Indonesia is not on track
gas (GHG) emissions are
– per capita – below the ! for a 1.5°C world.
G20 average. Indonesia needs to reduce its 1.5°C compatible pathway2

emissions to below 551 MtCO2e by (MtCO2e/year)
But the level of per capita emissions 2030 and to below -128 MtCO2e
2,000 NDC
has risen by 17% (2011-2016). by 2050 to be within its fair-share
range compatible with global 1.5°C max.
IPCC scenarios. Indonesia’s 2030 551
Greenhouse gas 1,000 675 MtCO2e MtCO2e
NDC would only limit its emissions
(GHG) emissions to 1,817 MtCO2e. All figures are
max.
(incl. land use) drawn from the Climate Action 0
-128
5.0
MtCO2e
per capita1
7.5
Tracker and exclude land use
(tCO2e/capita) emissions.
-1,000
Indonesia G20 average
Data for 2016
Source: CAT 2019;
Trend -2,000
PRIMAP 2018;
World Bank 2019 (2011-2016) +17 % -1 % 2016 2030 2050
Source: CAT 2019
Recent The 2019-2028 electricity plan A new decree on electric In October 2019, the
developments3 of state-owned electricity vehicles (EVs) (August 2019) Government established an
company PLN raised the creates the legal basis for agency to manage revenues
2025 target for the share of battery production, local from carbon trading and
coal in the power mix by 0.2 content requirements, charging other funds related to climate
percentage points compared stations and tax incentives. change mitigation.
to the previous plan.
Key Indonesia produces 61% of Indonesia only has two appliance Indonesia has lost 16% of the tree
opportunities its electricity from coal power. groups with mandatory standards cover it had back in 2000.
for enhancing or labels.
climate
ambition3
R Reduce the number of coal
power plants and triple
R Enact a permanent forest
renewable energy share in R Improve the efficiency

of household appliances
clearing moratorium incl.
primary and secondary
the power sector by 2030. and lighting in order to forests, and peat
avoid a peak demand of restoration to save at least
more than 25 GW in 2030. 66Mha of forest.
#1 #2
This country profile is part of the Brown to Green 2019 report. The full report and other G20 country profiles can be downloaded
#3
at: http://www.climate-transparency.org/g20-climate-performance/g20report2019
1
INDONESIA Country Profile 2019

BROWN TO GREEN: THE G20 TRANSITION TOWARDS A NET-ZERO EMISSIONS ECONOMY | 2019
INDONESIA –
SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT
0.694
Human Development Index Gross Domestic
Product (GDP)
The Human Development Index per capita
reflects life expectancy, level of (PPP US$ const. 2018,
education, and per capita income. international)
13,057 22,694
Indonesia ranks medium.
low very high

Data for 2017 | Source: UNDP 2018 Data for 2018 | Source: World Bank 2019 Indonesia G20 average
Population projections Death through ambient air pollution 1.1

(millions) (total ambient air pollution attributable deaths) G20
299.2 330.9 range
95,156
1.1
The World Bank expects
267.7
0.5
More than 95,000 people die in G20
Indonesia’s population to Indonesia every year as a result range
95,156
increase by around 24% of outdoor air pollution, due
0.5
attributable deaths
by 2050. to stroke, heart disease, lung Indonesia
cancer and chronic respiratory
diseases. Compared to the total attributable deaths
Indonesia
population, this is in the mid
range of the G20 countries. 0.1
2018 2030 2050
Ambient air pollution
Data for 2016 attributable death rate
Source: World Bank 2019 Source: World Health Organization 2018 0.1population per
per 1,000
year, age standardised
JUST TRANSITION 3
Since the 1980s, the government has promoted the use of coal. The 2018. But independent research by IESR estimates
proportion of coal in the primary energy mix has risen from 15.5% in that domestic coal consumption in the future will
2007 to 19.9% in 2018, whereas the oil and gas shares were relatively be lower than RUEN forecasts, and there will be
stable and tended to decrease. uncertainty in coal export due to lower demand
from major destination countries. This would
The 2017 General National Energy Plan (RUEN) defines the strategy on how
reduce state revenues and the labour force in the
to meet the 2014 National Energy Policy (KEN) target: increasing the share
coal sector. Unfortunately, the coal industry seems
of renewables in the primary energy mix in 2025. But the existing policy also
to have strong ties and alignment with the political
promotes both higher total coal consumption at domestic level for electricity
system. A comprehensive inclusive regulation of coal transition would
generation, and also the use of coal for producing liquid fuel or gas.
help Indonesia to mitigate its risks in the future, but such a strategy is
As for electricity, the state-owned power company, PLN, predicts that currently lacking.
54% of the electricity mix will come from coal in 2028, down from 61% in
Legend for all Decarbonisation Ratings4 Policy Ratings5

country profiles These ratings assess a country’s performance compared The policy ratings evaluate a selection of policies that are
to other G20 countries. A high scoring reflects a
very low low medium high very high
essential pre-conditions for the longer-term transformation
Trends relatively good effort from a climate protection required to meet the 1.5°C limit.
The trends show perspective but is not necessarily 1.5°C compatible.
developments over
the past five years
for which data are
available.
The thumbs indicate low medium high frontrunner
assessment from a
climate protection very llow low medium high very high nothing some policies long term 1.5°C compatible
in place targets or strategy, targets or strategy,
perspective. and policies and policies
For more information see the Annex and Technical Note
low medium high frontrunner 2

INDONESIA
MITIGATION BIG PICTURE
! Indonesia’s GHG emissions have increased by 90% (1990-2016)

and the government’s climate targets for 2030 (-29% from
In 2030, global GHG emissions need to
be 45% below 2010 levels and reach net
1.5°C
business as usual) are not in line with a 1.5°C pathway. zero by 2070. 6
Source: IPCC SR1.5 2018
Total GHG emissions across sectors2

MtCO2e/year
GHG emissions by sector
2,000
1,750 674
MtCO2e Total emissions
Other sectors
Waste
1,500 (excl. land use),
historic and Agriculture
projected
1,250 Industrial processes
Historical Energy
1,000 emissions/removals
from land use
750
NDC
500 1.5°C fair share range
250
Indonesia’s emissions (excl. land use) almost doubled between
0 1990 and 2016 and are projected to continue growing until at
least 2030. The forestry and energy sectors contribute the most
-250 to current emission levels. Indonesia is on track to overachieve
its NDC (excl. land use) based on current policies, indicating
-500 significant potential for the government to scale up its climate
action. Significant effort will be required to become 1.5°C
-750 compatible. 1.5°C-compatibility can be achieved via strong
domestic emissions reductions. This can be supplemented
-1,000
with contributions to global emissions-reduction efforts.
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2016 2030 2050 Emissions from the forestry sector could increase by as much
as 300 MtCO2e by 2030.
Source: PRIMAP 2018; CAT 2019
Climate action tracker (CAT) evaluation of NDC2

Nationally-determined contribution (NDC): Mitigation
Targets To reduce unconditionally 26% of its greenhouse gas

emissions against the business-as-usual scenario by
critically highly insufficient 2°C 1.5°C Paris role model
the year 2020 and 29% by the year of 2030 insufficient insufficient compatible Agreement
compatible
Actions Actions specified (sectors: land use and forestry,
Source: CAT 2019
agriculture, energy, waste)
Source: UNFCCC, NDC of respective country
Long-term strategy (LTS) to be submitted to the UNFCCC by 2020
Status No strategy yet

2050 target n.a.
Interim steps n.a.
Sectoral targets n.a. Source: UNFCCC, LTS of
respective country

INDONESIA
MITIGATION ENERGY
Fossil fuels still make up around 67% of Indonesia’s energy mix The share of fossil fuels globally needs to
! (including power, heat, transport fuels, etc) and their share is fall to 67% of global total primary energy
by 2030 and to 33% by 2050 and to
increasing further. The use of renewables has remained stable over
1.5°C
substantially lower levels without Carbon
the years at a fairly low level. Capture and 6
Storage.
Energy mix7
Total primary energy supply (PJ)
12,000 Share in 2018
10,000 28 % Other (incl.

traditional biomass)
8,000 5% Renewables 5%
(incl. hydro and excl. zero
residential biomass) carbon
6,000
16% Gas
4,000
31% Oil 67%
fossil
2,000
20% Coal
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018
This graph shows the fuel mix for all energy supply, including energy
Source: Enerdata 2019
used for electricity generation, heating, cooking, and transport fuels.
Fossil fuels (oil, coal and gas) make up 67% of the Indonesian energy
mix, which is below the G20 average (82%) but still high. Traditional
use of biomass accounts for almost a third of the energy mix.
very low
Carbon intensity of the energy sector Rating of carbon intensity
very low
low
compared to other G20 countries4
Tonnes of CO2 per unit of
total primary energy supply (tCO2/TJ) INDONESIA G20 Rating trend (2013-2018)
low
60
50 medium
tCO2 Rating current level (2018)
medium
50
40
high
30 high
Source: own evaluation
20 Carbon intensity shows how much CO2 is emitted

per unit of energy supply. At 50tCO2e/TJ, carbon
10 intensity in Indonesia is below the G20 average
(59tCO2e/TJ), but that level has been rising
0 (+9%, 2013-2018). This reflects the growing
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 share of coal and oil.

INDONESIA
MITIGATION ENERGY
Solar, wind, geothermal and biomass development8
13 %
Total primary energy supply (TPES) from solar, wind, geothermal and biomass (PJ)
1,400
Share of TPES in 2018
1,200
0.00 % Solar
1,000
0.01 % Wind
800
9.40 % Geothermal
600
3.61 % Biomass, excl.
traditional biomass
400
200
very low Geothermal and biomass account for
13% of Indonesia‘s energy supply – the
0
G20 average is only 6%. In the last five
very low
1990 1995 2000 2005 low2010 2015 2018
years, the share of these sources in
total energy supply has increased by
around 16%, less than the G20 average
low
Rating of share in TPES compared to other G20 countries4
medium
(+29% 2013-2018). Geothermal makes
up the largest share.
Rating trend (2013-2018) Rating current level (2018)

medium high
high
Energy supply per capita
Total primary energy supply per capita
(GJ/capita)
The level of energy supply per capita is closely related to economic

development, climatic conditions and the price of energy.
39
At 39 GJ/capita, energy supply per capita in Indonesia is less than
98
half the G20 average, but has increased more (+9%, 2013-2018)
than the G20 average (+1%).
Trend
very low +9 %
Data for 2018 |
(2013-2018) +1 % Source: Enerdata 2019;
World Bank 2019
low
Rating of energy supply per capita
Rating trend (2013-2018)medium

very low
high
low
Rating current level (2018)
very high
Source: own evaluation medium
5
INDONESIA Country Profile 2019 high

INDONESIA
MITIGATION ENERGY
Energy supply per capita in Indonesia is less than half the G20
! average, and the energy intensity of the economy remains below
Global energy and process-related CO2
emissions must be cut by 40% below
2010 levels by 2030 and reach net zero
average as well. However, energy-related CO2 emissions have risen
1.5°C
by 2060.
significantly in the past few years. 6
Energy intensity of the economy

This indicator quantifies how much energy is used for each unit of GDP.
(TJ/PPP US$2015 million)
This is closely related to the level of industrialisation, efficiency achievements,
climatic conditions or geography. Indonesia’s energy intensity is below the
very low
G20 average, but has decreased to a lesser extent (-9%, 2013-2018) than
very low
the G20 rate.
lowintensity compared to other G20 countries

Rating of energy
low
4
3.39 4.86 Rating trend (2013-2018)

Indonesia G20 average medium
medium
Trend
(2013-2018) -9 % -12 % Rating current level (2018)
high
high
Data for 2018 | Source: Enerdata 2019; World Bank 2019 Source: own evaluation
Energy-related CO2 emissions9

CO2 emissions from fuel combustion (MtCO2/year) 522MtCO2
600
540
Share of total energy-related
CO2 emissions in 2018
480
420 28 % Transport
360 1% Agriculture
300 5% Buildings
31 %
240
Industries
(incl. autoproducers)
180
120
7% Other energy sector
60 28 % Electricity and heat
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018
The largest driver of overall GHG emissions are CO2 emissions from fuel combustion.
In Indonesia, these emissions have significantly increased since 1990. The industry sector is,
with 31%, the largest contributor, followed by electricity and heat, and transport.

INDONESIA
MITIGATION POWER SECTOR
Share in energy-related
! Indonesia produces 61%
of electricity from coal and
CO2 emissions Coal must be phased out in the EU/OECD
no later than 2030, in the rest of the world
28%
intends to double its coal capacity no later than 2040. Electricity generation
by 2028. To stay within a 1.5°C needs to be decarbonised before 2050,
limit, Indonesia would need to
1.5°C
with renewable energy the most promising
phase out coal by 2040. option.5 6
Data for 2018 |

Source:
Enerdata 2019
Source: IPCC SR1.5 2018; Climate Analytics 2016; Climate Analytics 2019
STATUS OF DECARBONISATION
Power mix
Gross power generation (TWh) Shares in 2018 Renewables shares
300
250 12 % Renewables 6.6 % Hydro
200 22 % Gas
5% Oil 5.1 % Geothermal

150
61 % 0.1 % Wind onshore
0.7 %
Coal
Biomass
100
Indonesia’s power mix is dominated by fossil fuels
50 – coal use has risen sharply in the past decade and
now accounts for 61%. Renewables are developing
only slowly, and at 12% their share is below the G20
0 average (25%). The main renewable power sources
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 are hydropower and geothermal.
Emissions intensity Trend (2013-2018) Share of renewables Trend (2013-2018)

of the power sector in power generation
(gCO2/kWh) +10 % -11 % (incl. large hydro) +10 % +20 %
761 Indonesia G20 average
G20
average very low
458 Rating of emissions intensity 25% Rating of share of renewables
compared to other G20 countries4 compared to low
other G20 countries4
Rating trend (2013-2018)

very low
12% Rating trend (2013-2018)
medium
Indonesia
very low
Rating current level (2018) Rating current level (2018)
low high
Data for 2018 | Source: Enerdata 2019 very low low
low medium
Source: own evaluation Data for 2018 | Source: Enerdata 2019 Source: own evaluation
medium
high
For each kilowatt hour of electricity, 761 gCO2 are emitted in Indonesia.
high
medium
This is almost double the G20 average. Emission intensity has increased
by 10% (2013-2018) because of the growing use of fossil fuels.
high
7

INDONESIA
MITIGATION POWER SECTOR
POLICIES 5
low
Renewable energy in the power sector Coal phase-out in the power sector
medium low
low medium high frontrunner low medium high frontrunner
high
Indonesia is planning to install 16.7 GW of renewable power capacity
medium
Indonesia is not considering a coal phase-out but intends to install
by 2028. Indonesia had feed-in-tariffs in the past; the current regulation 6 GW of coal-fired power generation by 2020 and 27.1 GW by
abandoned this scheme and introduced the BOOT (Build-Own-Operate-
frontrunner
2028, doubling coal capacity by 2028. The coal industry is heavily
Transfer) scheme under which power plant assets cannot be used as
collateral. high
subsidised both directly (loan guarantees, tax exemptions, royalties
and tax rates) and indirectly (price cap on coal sold to domestic
power utilities, introduced in 2018).
frontrunner
Recent regulations make investments in renewable energy
! unattractive.
Source: own evaluation Source: own evaluation
frontrunner
frontrunner
MITIGATION TRANSPORT SECTOR
! Emissions from transport make
up almost 30% of Indonesia’s
CO2 emissions The proportion of low-carbon
fuels in the transport fuel mix must
28%
total CO2 emissions, as the transport increase to about 60% by 2050.
sector is still heavily dominated by fossil direct
1.5°C
fuels. In order to stay within a 1.5°C
limit, passenger and freight transport 6
need to be decarbonised.
Data for 2018 | Source: Enerdata 2019 Source: IPCC SR1.5 2018
Transport energy mix
Final energy consumption of transport
by source (PJ/year)
2,100
Share in 2018
3.5%
1,800
Biofuels Electricity and biofuels
together make up only
1,500 0.0% Electricity 3.5% of the energy mix
1,200 0.0% Gas
in transport (the G20
average is 6%).
900
96.5% Oil
0.0% Coal
600
300
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 Source: Enerdata 2019

INDONESIA
MITIGATION TRANSPORT SECTOR
STATUS OF DECARBONISATION (continued)
Transport emissions per capita10 Aviation emissions per capita11

(tCO2/capita, (tCO2/capita)
excl. aviation emissions) Trend (2013-2018) Trend (2011-2016)
+3 % +5 % +11 % +10 %
very low very low
1.13 0.15
Indonesia G20 average Indonesia G20 average
low emissions
Rating of transport low emissions
Rating of aviation
0.55 very to
compared lowother G20 countries4 0.05 very low
medium
Rating trend (2013-2018) medium
Rating trend (2011-2016)
low low
high high
Rating current level (2018) Rating current level (2016)
medium
very high Indonesia G20 average
medium
very high
Data for 2018 high Data for 2016 high
Source: Enerdata 2019; World Bank 2019 Source: own evaluation Source: Enerdata 2019; IEA 2018 Source: own evaluation
Motorisation rate Market share of electric Passenger transport Freight transport

(vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants) vehicles in new car sales (modal split in % of passenger km) (modal split in % of tonne-km)
(%)
50 no data
no data
no data no data
no data
Data for 2014 | Source: Agora 2018 Source: IEA 2019 Source: Agora 2018 Source: Agora 2018
POLICIES 5
Phase out fossil fuel cars Phase out fossil fuel heavy-duty low
Modal shift in (ground) transport
vehicles
low low medium

low medium high frontrunner low medium high frontrunner low medium high frontrunner
medium
There is no target to phase out fossil fuel cars
medium
There is no target to reduce total emissions Indonesia supports the development of an high
nor are there fuel economy or carbon emission from freight transport, nor are there energy Intelligent Transport System, the introduction
standards in place. However, cars with low or carbon emission standards in place for of Bus Rapid Transit Systems in 12 cities,
fuel consumption or emissions benefit from
a reduced sales tax. A 2019 decree offers tax high high
heavy-duty vehicles. There are no measures to
support low-carbon freight logistics, and the
frontrunner
and the enhancement of rail infrastructure
including electrification. There is no long-
incentives for the electric vehicle (EV) industry energy intensity of freight transport remains term strategy for supporting a modal shift
and buyers of EVs.
frontrunner
high.
frontrunner
or measures to support low-carbon freight
logistics.
front
frontrunner
frontrunner
9

INDONESIA
MITIGATION BUILDINGS SECTOR
Indonesia’s building
! emissions – including
CO2 emissions Global emissions from buildings need
to be halved by 2030, and be about 80%
heating, cooking and electricity
5%
below 2010 levels by 2050, achieved
use – make up 23% of total mostly through increased efficiency,
direct
CO2 emissions. Per capita, reduced energy demand and electrification
18 %
building-related emissions are in conjunction with complete
1.5°C
well below the G20 average but from decarbonisation 6
electricity of the power
increasing widely. Indonesia is
sector.
lack effective policies to reduce
emissions from buildings.
Data for 2018 | Source: Enerdata 2019 Source: IEA ETP B2DS scenario assessed in IPCC SR1.5 2018
Building emissions per capita Residential buildings: Commercial and public buildings:
(incl. indirect emissions) energy use per m2 energy use per m2
0.71 GJ 0.27 GJ
(tCO2/capita) (GJ) (GJ)
1.54
Data for 2018 | Source: Enerdata 2019; World Bank 2019
0.47
0.17 0.91 G20 range 0.15 3.53 G20 range

Data: year different per country | Data: year different per country | Source: ACEEE 2018
+17.8 % +1 %
Source: ACEEE 2018
very
Trend low
(2013-2018) Building-related emissions per Building emissions are largely driven by how much energy
capita are only a third of the is used in heating, cooling, lighting, household appliances,
low emissions
Rating of building
G20 average. But in contrast to etc. In Indonesia, energy use per m2 is in the upper
compared to other G20 countries4 the G20 average, Indonesia’s range for residential buildings and in the lower range for
emissions rose by 18% (2013- commercial and public ones.
medium
Rating trend (2013-2018) 2018), reflecting growing
very low power consumption and a
high higher share of coal in the
Rating current level (2018) power mix.
low very high
medium
POLICIES 5
high
Near-zero energy new buildings Renovation of existing buildings
low low
low medium high frontrunner low medium high frontrunner
Indonesia has no national strategy for making new buildings near zero There are no national policies for energy performance of existing
medium
energy. Indonesia’s National Energy Efficiency Standard for Buildings medium
buildings and retrofits in Indonesia.
(2011) is voluntary and applies to non-residential buildings only.

high Source: own evaluation
high
frontrunner
10
INDONESIA Country Profifrontrunner

le 2019
INDONESIA
MITIGATION INDUSTRY SECTOR
Share in energy-related CO2

Industry-related
! emissions make up more
emissions (not including process
emissions)
Global industrial CO₂ emissions
need to be reduced by 65–90%
than a third of CO2 emissions from 2010 levels by 2050.
in Indonesia. More stringent
31% direct
1.5°C
policies are required to reduce
these emissions in line with a 6
1.5°C pathway.
9% from
electricity
Data for 2018 | Source: Enerdata 2019 Source: IPCC SR1.5 2018
Industry emissions intensity12 Carbon intensity of Carbon intensity of
(tCO2e/US$2015 GVA) cement production13 steel production13
(kgCO2/tonne product) (kgCO2/tonne product)
Data for 2016 | Source: Enerdata 2019;
0.42 0.51 668 1,650

PRIMAP 2018; World Bank 2019
no data no data
G20 average World average World average
Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia
Data for 2015 | Source: CAT 2019 Data for 2015 | Source: CAT 2019
-1.5 % -10.2 %
Trend (2011-2016) When comparing Steel production and steelmaking are significant
very low industrial emissions GHG emission sources, and are challenging to
Rating of emissions intensity with the gross value decarbonise. There is no data on the emissions of
compared tolow
other G20 countries4
very low
added (GVA) from Indonesia’s steel or cement industries.
the industry sector,
Rating trend (2011-2016) Indonesia is below
low medium the G20 average, but
is reducing emission
Rating current level (2016)
high intensity at slower
medium pace (-1.5% compared
to the G20 average of
-10%, 2011-2016).
high
POLICIES
low
5
Energy efficiency Mandatory energy efficiency policies cover 26-50 % of industrial energy use. Indonesia
has energy management policies in place, mandates for energy managers, and energy
medium audit requirements. However, there are no performance standards for motors or policies to
encourage deployment of combined heat and power technologies.
low medium high frontrunner A 2009 regulation promised financial incentives for energy efficiency measures but
!
high these incentives have not been introduced.
frontrunner
frontrunner
11

INDONESIA
MITIGATION LAND USE
! In order to stay within the 1.5°C limit, Indonesia needs to make Global deforestation needs to be halted
and changed to net CO2 removals by
1.5°C
the land use and forest sector a net sink of emissions, eg by
around 2030. 6
halting the expansion of palm oil plantations, and by creating
new forests.
Gross tree cover loss by dominant driver14

Tree cover loss
POLICIES
low
5
(million hectares)
(Net) zero deforestation
0 Commodity-driven
-0.5
deforestation
medium
Forestry low medium high frontrunner
-1.0
-1.5
Shifting
agriculture moratorium on clearing of primary forest and
high
In August 2019, the president instructed a permanent
-2.0 Urbanisation peatland. However, the instruction neither creates a
-2.5 Wildfire frontrunner

firm legal basis nor does it include secondary forests.
Indonesia has not set a target to halt deforestation
and still faces alarmingly high rates of commodity-
-3.0 Total
frontrunn
driven deforestation.
2001 2005 2010 2015 2018
Source: Global Forest Watch 2019

Note: 2000 tree cover extent | >30% tree canopy |
these estimates do not take tree cover gain into account From 2001 to 2018, Indonesia lost 25.6Mha of tree cover, equivalent to a 16% reduction
since 2000, and 10.5Gt of CO2 emissions. This does not take tree-cover gain into account.
The main drivers are forest clearing for palm oil and timber harvesting, which contribute
around two-fifths of deforestation.
MITIGATION AGRICULTURE
Indonesia’s agricultural emissions come mainly Global methane emissions (mainly enteric fermentation)
! from rice cultivation, cultivation of organic soils, need to decline by 10% by 2030 and by 35% by 2050 (from
1.5°C
2010 levels). Nitrous oxide emissions (mainly from fertilzers
and livestock manure. A 1.5°C pathway requires dietary 6
and manure) need to be reduced
shifts and climate-smart farming practices. by 10% by 2030 and by 20%
by 2050.
GHG emissions from agriculture (not including energy)
Cultivation of
21% 4% Crop Residues In Indonesia, the largest sources of GHG
13 % emissions in the agricultural sector are rice

Organic Soils Enteric
Fermentation cultivation, cultivation of crops on peat
172
soils, and livestock manure. Climate-smart
MtCO2e
14% Manure
agriculture practices could help reduce
emissions.
Rice
Cultivation 37% 11% Synthetic
Fertilizers
Data for 2016 | Source: FAOSTAT 2019

12

INDONESIA
ADAPTATION
R Indonesia is vulnerable to climate change and adaptation actions are needed.

R On average, 252 fatalities and losses amounting to US$1.8 billion occur yearly due to
extreme weather events.
R With global warming, society and its supporting sectors are increasingly exposed to
severe climate events such as increasing frequency of heatwaves.
R With a 3°C warming, Indonesia would experience around 30 days per year when
temperatures reach higher than 35°C.
ADAPTATION POLICIES
Nationally-determined contribution: Adaptation
Targets Not mentioned

Actions Actions specified (sectors: agriculture, water, forestry, health,
infrastructure, biodiversity/ecosystems)
National adaptation strategies

Fields of action (sectors)
Coastal areas & fishing
Education & research
Finance & insurance

Energy & industry
Infrastructure
Biodiversity
Agriculture
Urbanism
Transport
Forestry
Tourism
Publication M&E process

Health
Water
Document name year (reporting frequency)
Monitoring done by
National Action Plan related line Ministries and
on Climate Change 2014 x x x x x x x x x x x x periodically reported to
Adaptation (RAN-API) the Minister of National
Development Planning
Source: own research
13

INDONESIA
ADAPTATION NEEDS
Climate Risk Index Global Climate Risk Index 2019 | All numbers are averages (1998-2017)
for 1998-2017 1 1
Weather- Per Annual Per unit
97
Impacts of extreme weather events related 100,000 average losses GDP
in terms of fatalities and economic
losses that occured
fatalities inhabitants
rank out
(PPP US$ mn) (%)
109
252 0.1 1799 0.1
of 181 rank out
countries of 181
countries
181 181
Source: Germanwatch 2018
Indonesia has already been struck by extreme weather events such as

floods, tropical cyclones, fires, landslides and heavy rains. As highlighted
by the numbers from the Climate Risk Index, such extreme weather
events result in fatalities and economic losses. Climate change is expected
to worsen the intensity, frequency and impacts of such events.
Exposure to future impacts at 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C

1.5°C 2°C 3°C Overall, with rising
temperatures, all sectors
Water % of area with increase in water scarcity are adversely affected. In
the water sector, water
% of time in drought conditions scarcity and time spent
in drought conditions
Heat & Health Heatwave frequency
increase significantly.
Days above 35°C
Impact ranking scale

Agriculture Maize Reduction in crop duration Very low
Hot spell frequency Low
Medium
Reduction in rainfall
High
Rice Reduction in crop duration Very high
Hot spell frequency
Blank cells signify that
Reduction in rainfall there is no data available
Source: Based on Arnell et al 2019
National crop production
8%
(share in % of total
production quantity Maize Rice and maize represent the largest
in tonnes) proportions of crop production out of
22 %
the four crops analysed (maize, rice,
soybeans, wheat). Reduced rainfall
Rice and crop duration affects both crops.
Generally, maize and rice production
70%
are affected by temperature rises
Rest and rainfall decreases, particularly in
lowland areas.
Data for 2017 | Source: FAOSTAT 2019
14

INDONESIA
FINANCE
Indonesia’s fossil fuel subsidies totalled US$7.7 billion in 2017, mostly Investment into green energy and
! for petroleum and electricity. The country has no explicit carbon price. infrastructure needs to outweigh
fossil fuel investments by 2025.
1.5°C
6
Nationally-determined contribution: Finance
Conditionality NDC partly conditional on international financial support

(Indonesia could increase its contribution to 41% emission
reduction against BAU by 2030), subject to availability of
international support for finance, technology transfer, and
development and capacity building)
Investment needs Not specified
Actions National actions to align financial flows specified (public
spending)
International market Not mentioned
mechanisms
Financial policy and regulation supporting a brown to green transition
Through policy and regulation governments can overcome challenges to mobilising green finance, including: real and perceived
risks, insufficient returns on investment, capacity and information gaps.
Category Instruments Objective Under discussion/ Not identified
implementation
Green Financial N/A This indicates political will and awareness of
Principles climate change impacts, showing where there
is a general discussion about the need for alig- x
ning prudential and climate change objectives
in the national financial architecture.
Under Not
Mandatory Voluntary discussion identified
Enhanced super Climate risk disclosure Disclose the climate-related risks to which
visory review, requirements financial institutions are exposed x
risk disclosure Climate-related risk Evaluate the resilience of the
and market assessment and financial sector to climate shocks x
discipline climate stress-test
Enhanced capital Liquidity Mitigate and prevent market
and liquidity instruments illiquidity and maturity mismatch x
requirements
Lending limits Limit the concentration of
carbon-intensive exposures x
Incentivise low carbon-intensive exposures x
Differentiated Reserve Limit misaligned incentives and canalise credit
Requirements to green sectors x
In 2014 Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) launched a Sustainable Finance Roadmap including measures to increase green finance through
regulatory support and incentives, targeted loans and guarantee schemes, green lending models and green bonds. OKJ has also released
a Sustainable Finance Umbrella Policy providing guidance to the Indonesian financial system. It defines sustainable
finance principles and requires financial institutions to submit annual plans on the implementation of sustainable finance,
demonstrating how they are developing green finance products and how they are incorporating green finance principles into
organisational restructuring, risk management and corporate governance.
15

INDONESIA
FINANCE
Fiscal policy levers

Fiscal policy levers raise public revenues and direct public resources. Critically, they can shift investment decisions and
consumer behaviour towards low-carbon, climate-resilient activities by reflecting externalities in prices.
Fossil fuel subsidies Subsidies by fuel type In 2017, Indonesia’s fossil fuel subsidies
US$ billions
totalled US$7.7bn (compared to
10 % 2%
35 US$24bn in 2008, and the last decade’s
Natural gas
peak of US$33.8bn in 2012). Of the
30 Coal subsidies quantified, 96% were for
25 consumption of fossil fuels, with
the remainder for production. The
20 highest subsidies were for petroleum,
15 at US$3.5bn, and for fossil fuel-based
electricity, at US$3.3bn. The largest
43 % 45 %
10 subsidy is annual compensation to
5 state-owned Perusahaan Listrik Negara
Electricity Petroleum for selling (fossil fuel-dominated)
0 electricity at below market prices
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Data for 2017 | Source: OECD-IEA 2019 (US$3.3bn).
Source: OECD-IEA 2019
Carbon revenues
Carbon revenues (US$ millions)
from explicit carbon pricing schemes
20,000
15,000
Indonesia does not have a national carbon tax or emissions trading scheme,
CO2 no data
nor are any such schemes planned. Despite this, 16% of domestic emissions
10,000 from energy use are subject to other taxes. Introducing a carbon pricing
scheme has been identified as one way to raise the environmental funds listed
in Presidential Regulation No. 77/2018, which could help Indonesia to achieve
5,000 its NDC target.
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: I4CE 2019
Carbon pricing gap15

% of energy-related CO2 emissions
Only 5% of Indonesia‘s CO2 emissions are
priced at EUR30 or higher (the low-end
95%
benchmark), creating a carbon pricing gap
of 95%. This gap is much higher than the
G20 average of 71%. The price covers not
Gap only explicit carbon taxes but also specific
O€
taxes on energy use and the price of trad-

able emission permits.
2% priced at low rates

of € 30 - 60/tCO 2
3% priced at
€ 60/tCO 2
or more Data for 2015 | Source: OECD 2018
16

INDONESIA
FINANCE
Public finance Public finance for coal16

Between 2016-2017, Indonesia’s public
(million US$)
Governments steer investments finance institutions provided US$286 million
through their public finance per year for coal-fired power production
institutions including via 285.85
285.85 domestically.
300 Mio. US$
development banks, both at home
250
and overseas, and green investment
banks. Developed G20 countries also 200
have an obligation to provide finance 150 Domestic Finance

to developing countries and public 100
International Finance
sources are a key aspect of these 50
obligations under the UNFCCC. 0

Domestic International Total Data year: 2016-2017 average
Finance Finance Source: Oil Change International 2019
Commitments to restrict public finance to coal and coal-fired power17
MDB level National Domestic Export

development export credit credit
agencies and agencies restriction in
banks OECD Comment
– – – No commitments identified
x yes – no not applicable Source: own research
Provision of international public Obligation to provide

support18 climate finance YES NO
under UNFCCC
Indonesia is not listed in Annex II of the Bilateral climate Annual average Theme of support
UNFCCC and it is therefore not formally finance contributions contribution
Cross-
obliged to provide climate finance. It has (mn US$, 2015-2016) Mitigation Adaptation cutting Other
nevertheless contributed international
0
public finance via the Green Climate
Fund. While Indonesia may channel 0% 0% 0% 0%
international public finance towards Source: Country reporting to UNFCCC
climate change via multilateral and other
development banks, it has not been
included in this report. Multilateral climate Annual average Theme of support
finance contributions contribution Cross-
(mn US$, 2015-2016) Adaptation Mitigation cutting
See Technical Note for
multilateral climate funds
0
included and method to
attribute amounts to countries 0% 0% 0%
Source: Country reporting to UNFCCC
Core/General Annual average

Contributions contribution
(mn US$, 2015-2016)
Source: Country reporting to UNFCCC

0
17

ENDNOTES G20
1) ‘Land use’ emissions is used here to refer to land-use, land use The 2030 projections of GHG emissions are from the CAT’s June 2019
change and forestry (LULUCF). The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) update and are based on implemented policies, expected economic
derives historical LULUCF emissions from the UNFCCC Common growth or trends in activity and energy consumption.
Reporting Format (CRF) reporting tables data converted to the The CAT methodology does not consider GHG emissions from LULUCF
categories from the IPCC 1996 guidelines, in particular separating due to the large degree of uncertainty inherent in this type of data,
Agriculture from Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and alsoto ensure consistency and comparability across countries.
which under the new IPCC 2006 Guidelines is integrated into
3) See the Brown to Green 2019 Technical Note for the sources used for
Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU). this assessment.
2) The 1.5°C fair share ranges for 2030 and 2050 are drawn from the 4) The Decarbonisation Ratings assess the relative performance across
CAT, which compiles a wide range of perspectives on what is the G20. A high scoring reflects a relatively good efforts from a climate
considered fair, including considerations such as responsibility, protection perspective but is not necessarily 1.5°C compatible. The
capability, and equality. Countries with 1.5°C fair-share ranges ratings assess both the ‘current level’ and ‘recent developments’ to take
reaching below zero, particularly between 2030 and 2050, are account of the different starting points of different G20 countries. The
expected to achieve such strong reductions by domestic emissions ‘recent developments’ ratings compare developments over the last
reductions, supplemented by contributions to global emissions- five available years (often 2013 to 2018).
reduction efforts via, for example, international finance. On a global
5) The selection of policies rated and the assessment of 1.5°C compatibility
scale, negative emission technologies are expected to play a role
are informed by the Paris Agreement, the Special Report on 1.5°C of
from the 2030s onwards, compensating for remaining positive the International Panel on Climate Change (2018), and the Climate
emissions. Action Tracker (2016): ‘The ten most important short-term steps to limit
The CAT’s evaluation of NDCs shows the resulting temperature warming to 1.5°C’. The table below displays the criteria used to assess
outcomes if all other governments were to put forward emissions a country’s policy performance. See the Brown to Green Report 2019
reduction commitments with the same relative ambition level. Technical Note for the sources used for this assessment.
On endnote 5) low medium high frontrunner

Renewable energy No policy to increase the share Some policies Policies and longer-term strategy/ Short-term policies + long-term
in power sector of renewables target to significantly increase the strategy for 100% renewables in
share of renewables the power sector by 2050 in place
Coal phase-out in No target or policy in place for Some policies Policies + coal phase-out decided Policies + coal phase-out date
power sector reducing coal before 2030 (OECD and EU28) or
2040 (rest of the world)
Phase out fossil No policy for reducing emissions Some policies (e.g. energy/ Policies + national target to phase Policies + ban on new fossil-
fuel cars from light-duty vehicles emissions performance standards out fossil fuel light-duty vehicles based light-duty vehicles by
or bonus/malus support) 2035 worldwide
Phase out fossil No policy Some policies (e.g. energy/ Policies + strategy to reduce Policies + innovation strategy to
fuel heavy-duty emissions performance standards absolute emissions from freight phase out emissions from freight
vehicles or support) transport transport by 2050
Modal shift in No policies Some policies (e.g. support Policies+ longer-term strategy Policies + longer-term strategy
(ground) transport programmes to shift to rail or consistent with 1.5°C pathway
non-motorised transport)
Near zero-energy No policies Some policies (e.g. building Policies + national strategy for Policies + national strategy for
new buildings codes, standards or fiscal/ near zero-energy new buildings all new buildings to be near zero-
financial incentives for low- energy by 2020 (OECD countries)
emissions options) or 2025 (non-OECD countries)
Retrofitting exis- No policies Some policies (e.g. building Policies + retrofitting strategy Policies + strategy to achieve
ting buildings codes, standards or fiscal/ deep renovation rates of 5%
financial incentives for low- annually (OECD) or 3% (non-
emissions options) OECD) by 2020
Energy efficiency No policies Mandatory energy efficiency Mandatory energy efficiency Policies + strategy to reduce
in industry policies cover more than 26-50% policies cover 51–100% of industrial emissions by 75%–90%
of industrial energy use industrial energy use from 2010 levels by 2050
(Net) zero No policy or incentive to reduce Some policies (e.g. incentives Policies + national target for Policies + national target for
deforestation deforestation in place to reduce deforestation or reaching net zero deforestation reaching zero deforestation by
support schemes for afforestation 2020s or for increasing forest
/reforestation in place) coverage
18

ENDNOTES (continued) G20
6) The 1.5°C benchmarks are based on the Special Report on 1.5°C of the 13) This indicator includes emissions from electricity (Scope 2) as well as
International Panel on Climate Change (2018). See the Brown to Green direct energy-related emissions and process emissions (Scope 1).
2019 Technical Note for the specific sources used for this assessment. 14) This indicator covers only gross tree-cover loss and does not take
7) Total primary energy supply data displayed in this Country Profile does tree-cover gain into account. It is thus not possible to deduce from
not include non-energy use values. Solid fuel biomass in residential this indicator the climate impact of the forest sector. The definition of
use has negative environmental and social impacts and is shown in ‘forest’ used for this indicator is also not identical with the definition
the category ‘other’. used for the indicator on page 3.
8) Large hydropower and solid fuel biomass in residential use are not 15) ‘Effective carbon rates’ are the total price that applies to CO2 emissions,
reflected due to their negative environmental and social impacts. and are made up of carbon taxes, specific taxes on energy use and the
9) The category ‘electricity and heat’ covers CO2 emissions from power price of tradable emission permits. The carbon pricing gap is based
generation and from waste heat generated in the power sector. The on 2015 energy taxes and is therefore likely to be an underestimate, as
category ‘other energy use’ covers energy-related CO2 emissions from taxation has tended to increase in countries over time.
extracting and processing fossil fuels (e.g. drying lignite). 16) The database used to estimate public finance for coal is a bottom-up
10) This indicator shows transport emissions per capita, not including database, based on information that is accessible through various
aviation emissions. online sources, and is therefore incomplete. For more information, see
to the Brown to Green 2019 Technical Note.
11) This indicator adds up emissions from domestic aviation and
emissions from international aviation bunkers in the respective 17) See the Brown to Green 2019 Technical Note for the sources used for
country. Emissions by aircrafts in the higher atmosphere lead to a this assessment.
contribution to climate change greater than emissions from burning 18) Climate finance contributions are sourced from Biennial Party
fossil fuels. In this Country Profile, however, only a radiative forcing reporting to the UNFCCC. Refer to the Brown to Green Report 2019
factor of 1 is assumed. Technical Note for more detail.
12) This indicator includes only direct energy-related emissions and
process emissions (Scope 1) but not indirect emissions from electricity.
For more detail on the sources and methodologies behind the calculation of the indicators displayed, please download
the Technical Note at: http://www.climate-transparency.org/g20-climate-performance/g20report2019
19

CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY
Partners:
Supported by:
Funders:
based on a decision of the German Bundestag
Data Partners:
http://www.climate-transparency.org/g20-climate-performance/g20report2019
Contact point in Indonesia:

Fabby Tumiwa
Institute for Essential Services
Reform (IESR)
[email protected]
Erina Mursanti
Institute for Essential Services
Reform (IESR)
[email protected]
20

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BROWN TO GREEN: 2019

THE G20 TRANSITION TOWARDS A NET-ZERO EMISSIONS ECONOMY

G20 average. Indonesia needs to reduce its 1.5°C compatible pathway2

renewable energy share in R Improve the eﬃciency

INDONESIA Country Profile 2019

low very high

Population projections Death through ambient air pollution 1.1

299.2 330.9 range

Legend for all Decarbonisation Ratings4 Policy Ratings5

For more information see the Annex and Technical Note

low medium high frontrunner 2

INDONESIA Country Profile 2019

! Indonesia’s GHG emissions have increased by 90% (1990-2016)

Source: IPCC SR1.5 2018

Total GHG emissions across sectors2

Climate action tracker (CAT) evaluation of NDC2

Targets To reduce unconditionally 26% of its greenhouse gas

Long-term strategy (LTS) to be submitted to the UNFCCC by 2020

Status No strategy yet

INDONESIA Country Profile 2019

Source: IPCC SR1.5 2018

10,000 28 % Other (incl.

20 Carbon intensity shows how much CO2 is emitted

Source: Enerdata 2019

INDONESIA Country Profile 2019

Solar, wind, geothermal and biomass development8

Rating trend (2013-2018) Rating current level (2018)

The level of energy supply per capita is closely related to economic

Rating trend (2013-2018)medium

INDONESIA Country Profile 2019 high

Source: IPCC SR1.5 2018

Energy intensity of the economy

lowintensity compared to other G20 countries

3.39 4.86 Rating trend (2013-2018)

Energy-related CO2 emissions9

60 28 % Electricity and heat

Source: Enerdata 2019

INDONESIA Country Profile 2019

Data for 2018 |

250 12 % Renewables 6.6 % Hydro

5% Oil 5.1 % Geothermal

Emissions intensity Trend (2013-2018) Share of renewables Trend (2013-2018)

Rating trend (2013-2018)

INDONESIA Country Profile 2019

INDONESIA Country Profile 2019

STATUS OF DECARBONISATION (continued)

Transport emissions per capita10 Aviation emissions per capita11

Motorisation rate Market share of electric Passenger transport Freight transport

low low medium

INDONESIA Country Profile 2019

0.17 0.91 G20 range 0.15 3.53 G20 range

Source: own evaluation

INDONESIA Country Profifrontrunner

Share in energy-related CO2

0.42 0.51 668 1,650

INDONESIA Country Profile 2019

Source: IPCC SR1.5 2018

Gross tree cover loss by dominant driver14

-2.0 Urbanisation peatland. However, the instruction neither creates a

-2.5 Wildfire frontrunner