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    Solution: 1.: P (Atleast Twice in Four Years) P (2 Times) + P (3 Times) + P (4 Times)

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    Dharmesh Goyal

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    Solution: 1.: P (Atleast Twice in Four Years) P (2 Times) + P (3 Times) + P (4 Times)

    Uploaded by

    Dharmesh Goyal
    13 views1 page

    Original Title

    Virgin Blue Solution

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    13 views1 page

    Solution: 1.: P (Atleast Twice in Four Years) P (2 Times) + P (3 Times) + P (4 Times)

    Uploaded by

    Dharmesh Goyal

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    of 1

    Solution:

    1.
    The probabilities provided in the question are about the market share
    Virgin Blue = 34%
    Qantas = 50%
    Jetstar = 12%
    .
    Then it also tells us that 30% of domestic travellers travel with virgin blue for the first time
    85% of those who travel with virgin blue , travel with them again
    .
    P(atleast twice in four years) = P(2 times) + P(3 times) + P(4 times)
    .
    P(2 times) = 0.85 * 0.15 *0.15 = 0.019125
    P(3 times) = 0.85 *0.85 *0.15 = 0.108375
    P(4 times) = 0.85* 0.85 *0.85 = 0.614125
    .
    P(atleast twice in four years) = 0.019125 + 0.108375 + 0.614125
    P(atleast twice in four years) = 0.741625

    3.
    Probability of domestic traveller in age 35-49 = 0.12
    P(Traveller is in age 35-49 or traveller travelled with Virgin Blue) = P(Traveller is in age 35-
    49) + P(Not in age 35-49 and Travelled with Virgin Blue) = 0.12+0.88*0.34, as Virgin blue
    has 34% of the market
    = 0.4192
    P(travelled with Virgin Blue| Age is 35-49) = P(Travelled first time with Virgin Blue|Age is 35-
    49) + P(Travelled again with Virgin Blue | age is 35-49) = 0.24+0.85*0.34 = 0.529

    4.
    P(Value for money) = 0.79
    P(Travelled with VB|Value for money) = 0.68
    P(Travelled with VB | No value for money) = 0.12
    P(Travelled with VB) = P(Value for money).P(Travelled with VB|Value for money) +  P(No
    Value for money).P(Travelled with VB|No Value for money)=0.79*0.68+0.21*0.12 =0.5624
    P(Value for money|Travelled with VB) = P(Travelled with VB|Value for money).P(Value for
    money)/P(Travelled with VB) = 0.68*0.79/0.5624 = 0.955
    P(No Value for money|Travelled with VB) = P(Travelled with VB|No Value for money).P(No
    Value for money)/P(Travelled with VB) = 0.12*0.21/0.5624 = 0.045

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