Electoral projections for the 2021 federal election

Sept. 8th 2021

Projections électorales pour l'élection fédérale de 2021 www.tooclosetocall.ca
tooclosetocall.ca www.silatendancesemaintient.ca
% CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.
Atlantic 33.7 39.1 20.1 2.7 0.0 3.9
Quebec 20.1 34.4 14.2 2.1 25.5 3.4
Ontario 34.3 37.6 18.7 2.3 0.0 5.8
Prairies 45.2 22.0 24.8 1.6 0.0 5.6 Probability of winning most seats
Alberta 55.7 18.0 19.6 0.6 0.0 5.1 (with majority below)
BC 31.8 29.3 29.2 5.4 0.0 3.8 Probabilités de gagner le plus de sièges
Canada 33.8 33.1 19.9 2.3 5.2 4.8 (et d'une majorité en-dessous)

Seats/Sièges CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC

Atlantic 11 19 2 0 0 36.6% 62.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quebec 14 41 3 0 20 0 5.0% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ontario 44 69 8 0 0
Prairies 19 4 5 0 0
Alberta 31 2 1 0 0
BC 15 13 13 1 0
Territories* 1 1 1 0 0
Probability of winning the riding
Canada 135 149 33 1 20 0 0 Probabilité de remporter la circonscription

Riding/Circonscription CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind. CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.
Avalon 33% 44% 20% 3% 9.8% 90.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity 42% 44% 14% 2% 37.7% 62.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame 38% 47% 15% 17.6% 82.4% 0.0%
NFL

Labrador 34% 40% 25% 2% 23.3% 75.6% 1.1% 0.0%

Long Range Mountains 31% 46% 22% 2% 4.1% 95.8% 0.0% 0.0%
St. John's East/St. John's-Est 21% 38% 41% 3% 0.3% 36.3% 63.4% 0.0%
St. John's South--Mount Pearl/St. John's-Sud--Mount
22% Pearl
49% 29% 4% 0.2% 99.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Cardigan 37% 48% 10% 4% 3% 11.6% 88.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlottetown 30% 45% 17% 8% 3% 4.9% 95.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
PEI
PEI Egmont 44% 39% 10% 7% 3% 67.8% 32.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Malpeque 39% 38% 13% 10% 3% 54.5% 45.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cape Breton--Canso 39% 38% 23% 5% 51.9% 47.6% 0.5% 0.0%
Central Nova/Nova-Centre 39% 44% 17% 0% 5% 28.0% 72.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cumberland--Colchester 46% 34% 17% 3% 4% 89.1% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour 58% 42% 0% 6% 94.3% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Halifax 19% 37% 42% 3% 4% 0.1% 28.1% 71.8% 0.0% 0.0%
NS

Halifax West/Halifax-Ouest 32% 38% 28% 2% 4% 21.6% 72.6% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Kings--Hants 37% 39% 21% 3% 4% 43.0% 56.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook 32% 37% 29% 2% 5% 23.2% 67.6% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0%
South Shore--St. Margarets 39% 38% 20% 3% 50.0% 49.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Sydney--Victoria 41% 31% 28% 0% 3% 81.5% 13.7% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0%
West Nova/Nova-Ouest 45% 35% 21% 2% 86.8% 13.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Acadie--Bathurst 24% 55% 19% 2% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Beauséjour 23% 53% 13% 10% 5% 0.3% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fredericton 38% 43% 12% 6% 29.9% 70.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Fundy Royal 53% 27% 15% 5% 6% 99.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Madawaska--Restigouche 32% 52% 11% 5% 3% 1.7% 98.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NB

Miramichi--Grand Lake 42% 40% 14% 4% 6% 58.5% 41.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 29% 47% 18% 6% 6% 3.2% 96.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Brunswick Southwest/Nouveau-Brunswick-Sud-Ouest
56% 27% 13% 4% 6% 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint John--Rothesay 35% 45% 17% 3% 7% 14.9% 85.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tobique--Mactaquac 56% 26% 13% 5% 5% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 21% 30% 16% 2% 28% 4% 3.3% 57.9% 0.2% 0.0% 38.6% 0.0%
Abitibi--Témiscamingue 19% 26% 13% 2% 37% 3% 0.8% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 83.4% 0.0%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 11% 52% 15% 3% 15% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alfred-Pellan 17% 48% 12% 1% 21% 0.0% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation 16% 41% 11% 29% 3% 0.0% 88.6% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 11% 36% 7% 44% 2% 0.0% 27.3% 0.0% 72.7% 0.0%
Beauce 43% 14% 6% 1% 6% 31% 96.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6%
Beauport--Limoilou 32% 26% 16% 2% 25% 62.2% 20.6% 0.2% 0.0% 17.0%
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel 20% 20% 8% 1% 49% 3% 0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 98.5% 0.0%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 49% 19% 9% 1% 23% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Beloeil--Chambly 11% 23% 19% 2% 43% 2% 0.0% 4.2% 0.5% 0.0% 95.3% 0.0%
 Berthier--Maskinongé 14% 16% 37% 1% 30% 3% 0.0% 0.1% 83.0% 0.0% 16.9% 0.0%
Thérèse-De Blainville 14% 36% 12% 2% 34% 2% 0.0% 57.4% 0.0% 0.0% 42.6% 0.0%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 13% 29% 12% 44% 2% 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 89.2% 0.0%
Bourassa 11% 57% 12% 2% 16% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brome--Missisquoi 16% 40% 11% 4% 27% 2% 0.0% 92.8% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0%
Brossard--Saint-Lambert 15% 55% 15% 13% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques
13% 25% 27% 32% 2% 0.1% 17.7% 23.9% 58.3% 0.0%
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles 38% 21% 11% 1% 25% 4% 93.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 0.0%
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix
34% 23% 8% 0% 30% 4% 69.7% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 25.9% 0.0%
Châteauguay--Lacolle 18% 37% 10% 4% 28% 2% 0.2% 82.4% 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 0.0%
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 41% 19% 9% 1% 28% 3% 93.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 0.0%
Compton--Stanstead 18% 39% 12% 3% 24% 3% 0.2% 94.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 0.0%
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle 15% 53% 16% 3% 11% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drummond 22% 20% 19% 38% 4.0% 3.6% 1.1% 91.3%
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 11% 45% 7% 33% 2% 0.0% 89.7% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0%
Gatineau 14% 54% 14% 2% 14% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hochelaga 9% 33% 26% 2% 27% 3% 0.0% 67.4% 9.5% 0.0% 23.1% 0.0%
Honoré-Mercier 14% 58% 12% 1% 13% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hull--Aylmer 13% 56% 17% 4% 7% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Joliette 14% 22% 9% 2% 50% 2% 0.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 98.4% 0.0%
Jonquière 31% 23% 18% 1% 27% 59.7% 11.7% 0.6% 0.0% 28.0%
La Pointe-de-l'Île 12% 30% 15% 41% 3% 0.0% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 80.8% 0.0%
La Prairie 14% 36% 12% 2% 34% 2% 0.0% 59.8% 0.0% 0.0% 40.1% 0.0%
Lac-Saint-Jean 29% 27% 8% 0% 37% 16.5% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 69.7%
Lac-Saint-Louis 20% 57% 16% 4% 1% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun 11% 43% 21% 4% 18% 3% 0.0% 99.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Laurentides--Labelle 12% 33% 11% 3% 39% 2% 0.0% 32.8% 0.0% 0.0% 67.2% 0.0%
Laurier--Sainte-Marie 7% 41% 30% 2% 17% 2% 0.0% 91.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
QC

Laval--Les Îles 21% 48% 13% 2% 13% 3% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 12% 38% 15% 4% 28% 3% 0.0% 85.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0%
Lévis--Lotbinière 45% 16% 10% 0% 23% 6% 99.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Longueuil--Saint-Hubert 9% 39% 11% 6% 34% 2% 0.0% 70.3% 0.0% 0.0% 29.7% 0.0%
Louis-Hébert 20% 41% 12% 1% 27% 0.1% 93.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.6%
Louis-Saint-Laurent 45% 20% 10% 1% 20% 5% 99.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Manicouagan 25% 22% 6% 47% 0% 2.7% 1.6% 0.0% 95.6% 0.0%
Mégantic--L'Érable 49% 15% 7% 1% 23% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mirabel 14% 24% 12% 3% 43% 3% 0.0% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 94.2% 0.0%
Montarville 12% 36% 14% 36% 2% 0.0% 53.8% 0.0% 46.2% 0.0%
Montcalm 14% 20% 11% 2% 50% 3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 99.0% 0.0%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
47% 18% 9% 25% 99.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%
Mount Royal/Mont-Royal 28% 54% 12% 2% 1% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 15% 55% 19% 7% 1% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Outremont 11% 45% 25% 8% 8% 3% 0.0% 99.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Papineau 8% 50% 24% 5% 10% 3% 0.0% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pierrefonds--Dollard 22% 57% 15% 2% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pontiac 25% 45% 15% 2% 8% 5% 0.5% 99.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 44% 20% 9% 22% 5% 99.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Québec 15% 33% 16% 3% 31% 3% 0.1% 60.8% 0.0% 0.0% 39.1% 0.0%
Repentigny 14% 28% 12% 46% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% 92.6%
Richmond--Arthabaska 49% 18% 9% 21% 3% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 16% 34% 11% 3% 33% 4% 0.0% 53.6% 0.0% 0.0% 46.4% 0.0%
Rivière-du-Nord 17% 23% 13% 45% 2% 0.3% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 96.1% 0.0%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie 8% 23% 48% 2% 18% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 15% 45% 13% 25% 3% 0.0% 98.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot 19% 21% 23% 34% 3% 2.3% 8.3% 9.8% 79.5% 0.0%
Saint-Jean 16% 30% 12% 3% 37% 2% 0.1% 27.9% 0.0% 0.0% 72.1% 0.0%
Saint-Laurent 22% 59% 15% 1% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 17% 65% 11% 3% 4% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain 22% 42% 8% 1% 27% 0.3% 94.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0%
Salaberry--Suroît 15% 30% 13% 40% 3% 0.1% 19.3% 0.0% 80.6% 0.0%
Shefford 20% 36% 9% 4% 30% 0% 0.4% 73.9% 0.0% 0.0% 25.8% 0.0%
Sherbrooke 15% 30% 34% 2% 17% 2% 0.1% 47.3% 49.9% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges 18% 47% 17% 2% 16% 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Terrebonne 13% 28% 13% 1% 42% 3% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 88.2% 0.0%
Trois-Rivières 29% 27% 21% 0% 20% 3% 48.8% 39.7% 1.6% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 14% 52% 23% 3% 6% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vimy 16% 47% 16% 19% 3% 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Ajax 32% 53% 15% 0% 1.5% 98.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 28% 23% 43% 2% 4% 2.4% 0.4% 97.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill 40% 42% 10% 8% 44.1% 55.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Barrie--Innisfil 47% 29% 20% 4% 97.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 42% 33% 20% 4% 84.2% 15.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Bay of Quinte/Baie de Quinte 38% 38% 17% 2% 4% 49.9% 50.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Beaches--East York 15% 51% 23% 2% 8% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brampton Centre/Brampton-Centre 34% 43% 24% 15.4% 84.1% 0.4%
Brampton East/Brampton-Est 25% 39% 28% 7% 3.1% 89.8% 7.2% 0.0%
Brampton North/Brampton-Nord 33% 46% 20% 7.9% 92.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Brampton South/Brampton-Sud 30% 43% 19% 8% 7.5% 92.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Brampton West/Brampton-Ouest 26% 46% 21% 8% 0.9% 99.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Brantford--Brant 38% 32% 23% 3% 4% 73.3% 25.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 48% 29% 13% 5% 5% 98.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Burlington 35% 42% 12% 3% 8% 21.3% 78.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cambridge 32% 38% 21% 4% 5% 21.2% 78.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Chatham-Kent--Leamington 49% 30% 16% 1% 4% 98.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davenport 11% 38% 43% 1% 7% 0.0% 25.7% 74.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Don Valley East/Don Valley-Est 25% 54% 13% 8% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Don Valley North/Don Valley-Nord 36% 45% 11% 0% 8% 15.7% 84.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Don Valley West/Don Valley-Ouest 32% 50% 9% 0% 8% 2.0% 98.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dufferin--Caledon 44% 32% 13% 7% 4% 92.4% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Durham 47% 25% 20% 8% 99.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Eglinton--Lawrence 34% 48% 10% 0% 8% 6.2% 93.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elgin--Middlesex--London 53% 22% 19% 2% 3% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Essex 43% 17% 36% 0% 4% 80.5% 0.0% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Etobicoke Centre/Etobicoke-Centre 36% 47% 10% 8% 10.9% 89.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore 30% 46% 14% 2% 8% 3.1% 96.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Etobicoke North/Etobicoke-Nord 23% 55% 13% 9% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Flamborough--Glanbrook 37% 38% 20% 2% 4% 44.7% 55.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 38% 47% 11% 0% 4% 17.1% 82.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Guelph 21% 40% 14% 22% 4% 1.3% 98.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Haldimand--Norfolk 52% 25% 19% 4% 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock 51% 25% 16% 5% 4% 99.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hamilton Centre/Hamilton-Centre 15% 27% 49% 4% 4% 0.0% 0.4% 99.6% 0.0% 0.0%
 Hamilton East--Stoney Creek/Hamilton-Est--Stoney
29% Creek33% 30% 4% 4% 20.3% 55.0% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Hamilton Mountain 28% 30% 36% 2% 3% 10.6% 22.1% 67.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas/Hamilton-Ouest--Ancaster--Dundas
28% 46% 19% 3% 4% 2.5% 97.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington 43% 36% 14% 2% 4% 78.9% 21.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Huron--Bruce 51% 32% 13% 4% 98.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kanata--Carleton 39% 42% 14% 1% 4% 34.2% 65.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kenora 36% 29% 30% 2% 3% 65.7% 15.4% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0%
King--Vaughan 45% 38% 9% 0% 8% 78.1% 21.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kingston and the Islands/Kingston et les Îles 21% 45% 25% 4% 5% 0.4% 98.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Kitchener Centre/Kitchener-Centre 30% 17% 26% 22% 4% 65.5% 3.1% 28.0% 3.4% 0.0%
Kitchener--Conestoga 41% 39% 11% 6% 4% 60.9% 39.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kitchener South--Hespeler/Kitchener-Sud--Hespeler
35% 39% 15% 7% 4% 33.8% 66.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 51% 24% 17% 2% 5% 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston 50% 23% 15% 7% 4% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands and Rideau 51%Lakes/Leeds--Grenville--Thousand
25% 15% 5% Islands et4%
Rideau Lakes 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
London--Fanshawe 26% 26% 44% 4% 1.5% 1.1% 97.4% 0.0%
London North Centre/London-Centre-Nord 25% 42% 26% 3% 5% 2.5% 95.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0%
London West/London-Ouest 29% 43% 24% 4% 7.3% 92.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Markham--Stouffville 41% 40% 10% 0% 8% 54.1% 45.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Markham--Thornhill 35% 46% 10% 1% 7% 10.5% 89.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Markham--Unionville 56% 33% 10% 0% 99.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Milton 38% 45% 9% 0% 8% 22.6% 77.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississauga Centre/Mississauga-Centre 31% 48% 13% 0% 9% 3.0% 97.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississauga East--Cooksville/Mississauga-Est--Cooksville
35% 46% 11% 8% 11.3% 88.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississauga--Erin Mills 34% 46% 12% 0% 8% 8.9% 91.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ont.

Mississauga--Lakeshore 39% 41% 11% 1% 8% 39.6% 60.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Mississauga--Malton 34% 48% 18% 0% 6.7% 93.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississauga--Streetsville 35% 43% 13% 0% 8% 17.4% 82.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nepean 35% 45% 14% 1% 4% 14.6% 85.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Newmarket--Aurora 40% 37% 13% 2% 8% 64.5% 35.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara Centre/Niagara-Centre 33% 34% 28% 2% 3% 38.2% 50.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara Falls 40% 34% 21% 1% 4% 74.3% 25.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara West/Niagara-Ouest 49% 32% 13% 3% 4% 97.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nickel Belt 23% 38% 33% 1% 4% 1.7% 69.6% 28.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Nipissing--Timiskaming 29% 41% 23% 7% 8.5% 90.6% 0.9% 0.0%
Northumberland--Peterborough South/Northumberland--Peterborough-Sud
42% 35% 15% 4% 4% 75.9% 24.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakville 41% 40% 10% 1% 8% 55.9% 44.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakville North--Burlington/Oakville-Nord--Burlington
40% 41% 11% 0% 8% 43.6% 56.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oshawa 40% 19% 30% 2% 8% 89.9% 0.4% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Ottawa Centre/Ottawa-Centre 16% 44% 35% 2% 4% 0.1% 85.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Orléans 30% 54% 13% 0% 4% 0.8% 99.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ottawa South/Ottawa-Sud 26% 52% 18% 1% 4% 0.3% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ottawa--Vanier 19% 51% 23% 3% 4% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ottawa West--Nepean/Ottawa-Ouest--Nepean 29% 45% 21% 1% 4% 3.1% 96.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oxford 51% 18% 22% 5% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Parkdale--High Park 15% 42% 34% 2% 8% 0.0% 84.3% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Parry Sound--Muskoka 44% 29% 13% 12% 2% 95.1% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Perth--Wellington 50% 28% 19% 3% 99.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Peterborough--Kawartha 39% 34% 17% 6% 3% 72.0% 27.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Pickering--Uxbridge 31% 45% 15% 9% 5.9% 94.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke 58% 19% 17% 2% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond Hill 44% 36% 12% 0% 8% 81.1% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Carleton 49% 37% 10% 0% 4% 90.6% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Catharines 35% 37% 21% 2% 4% 43.3% 56.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Toronto--St. Paul's 23% 49% 18% 2% 9% 0.3% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sarnia--Lambton 53% 19% 23% 0% 5% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sault Ste. Marie 34% 38% 24% 4% 29.6% 69.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Scarborough--Agincourt 37% 44% 11% 1% 7% 20.1% 79.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Scarborough Centre/Scarborough-Centre 24% 52% 14% 9% 0.2% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Scarborough--Guildwood 23% 55% 13% 8% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Scarborough North/Scarborough-Nord 31% 47% 15% 7% 2.9% 97.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Scarborough--Rouge Park 21% 57% 14% 7% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Scarborough Southwest/Scarborough-Sud-Ouest22% 52% 17% 2% 8% 0.2% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Simcoe--Grey 46% 31% 12% 8% 4% 95.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Simcoe North/Simcoe-Nord 41% 32% 17% 6% 4% 83.9% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Spadina--Fort York 22% 45% 25% 0% 9% 0.4% 98.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry 56% 24% 15% 1% 4% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sudbury 22% 40% 31% 2% 4% 1.2% 86.7% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0%
 Thornhill 51% 31% 11% 0% 7% 98.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River 31% 34% 31% 1% 4% 25.9% 52.5% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Thunder Bay--Superior North/Thunder Bay--Supérieur-Nord
27% 42% 23% 4% 4% 4.6% 95.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Timmins--James Bay/Timmins--Baie James 29% 24% 42% 5% 4.5% 1.2% 94.3% 0.0%
Toronto Centre/Toronto-Centre 12% 47% 23% 11% 8% 0.0% 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Toronto--Danforth 12% 42% 35% 3% 8% 0.0% 80.4% 19.6% 0.0% 0.0%
University--Rosedale 18% 46% 25% 3% 8% 0.1% 99.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Vaughan--Woodbridge 37% 44% 10% 1% 8% 23.8% 76.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Waterloo 26% 48% 17% 5% 4% 1.0% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wellington--Halton Hills 50% 27% 10% 9% 4% 99.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Whitby 37% 37% 16% 2% 8% 53.2% 46.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Willowdale 37% 43% 12% 0% 8% 23.2% 76.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Windsor--Tecumseh 29% 32% 34% 0% 4% 16.7% 34.4% 48.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Windsor West/Windsor-Ouest 20% 34% 42% 4% 0.2% 18.0% 81.8% 0.0%
York Centre/York-Centre 39% 43% 10% 8% 31.1% 68.9% 0.0% 0.0%
York--Simcoe 51% 28% 18% 4% 99.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
York South--Weston/York-Sud--Weston 20% 52% 19% 2% 7% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Humber River--Black Creek 17% 54% 21% 2% 7% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brandon--Souris 58% 16% 21% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley
38% 38% 16% 0% 8% 52.8% 47.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski 13% 25% 55% 2% 5% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa 58% 16% 18% 3% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elmwood--Transcona 31% 14% 50% 0% 5% 1.5% 0.0% 98.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Kildonan--St. Paul 38% 31% 26% 5% 79.1% 16.1% 4.8% 0.0%
Portage--Lisgar 65% 14% 15% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Man.

Provencher 59% 15% 17% 3% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Saint Boniface--Saint Vital/Saint-Boniface--Saint-Vital
26% 46% 22% 1% 6% 0.7% 99.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman 56% 14% 22% 3% 5% 99.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Winnipeg Centre/Winnipeg-Centre 11% 36% 47% 1% 6% 0.0% 9.4% 90.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Winnipeg North/Winnipeg-Nord 14% 50% 31% 0% 5% 0.0% 99.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Winnipeg South/Winnipeg-Sud 32% 44% 19% 0% 5% 7.5% 92.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Winnipeg South Centre/Winnipeg-Centre-Sud 23% 47% 23% 1% 6% 0.1% 99.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Battlefords--Lloydminster 67% 10% 16% 2% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands 70% 7% 15% 2% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
 Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River/Desnethé--Missinippi--Rivière
30% 29% 34% Churchill
3% 4% 27.9% 16.7% 55.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek/Sentier Carlton--Eagle
68% Creek7% 17% 2% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan 55% 11% 24% 2% 7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prince Albert 56% 13% 23% 2% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Regina--Lewvan 42% 16% 34% 3% 5% 79.5% 0.0% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Sask.

Regina--Qu'Appelle 52% 15% 25% 3% 5% 99.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Regina--Wascana 38% 37% 18% 2% 5% 57.4% 42.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saskatoon--Grasswood 42% 20% 31% 1% 6% 89.7% 0.1% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Saskatoon--University 41% 16% 36% 1% 6% 73.9% 0.0% 26.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saskatoon West/Saskatoon-Ouest 35% 18% 39% 3% 6% 30.3% 0.1% 69.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Souris--Moose Mountain 75% 7% 13% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Yorkton--Melville 65% 10% 17% 3% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Banff--Airdrie 43% 15% 19% 1% 7% 15% 99.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Battle River--Crowfoot 72% 9% 13% 1% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bow River 71% 10% 14% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Centre/Calgary-Centre 48% 32% 20% 0% 96.2% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Confederation 44% 28% 21% 2% 5% 96.9% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Forest Lawn 47% 27% 20% 1% 5% 99.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Heritage 58% 18% 18% 1% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Midnapore 61% 15% 18% 0% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Nose Hill 56% 20% 18% 0% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Rocky Ridge 55% 23% 17% 0% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Shepard 62% 15% 17% 0% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Signal Hill 58% 20% 17% 0% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Skyview 42% 35% 19% 1% 4% 78.7% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre 27% 41% 27% 5% 3.6% 94.6% 1.7% 0.0%
Edmonton Griesbach 38% 22% 34% 1% 5% 68.2% 0.3% 31.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Edmonton Manning 43% 26% 26% 5% 96.0% 1.6% 2.4% 0.0%
Edmonton Mill Woods 37% 38% 21% 5% 43.4% 56.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Alb.

Edmonton Riverbend 44% 27% 24% 0% 5% 97.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Edmonton Strathcona 23% 15% 56% 0% 5% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edmonton West/Edmonton-Ouest 48% 24% 23% 5% 99.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin 59% 16% 19% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Foothills 69% 10% 14% 1% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
 Fort McMurray--Cold Lake 68% 13% 13% 0% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie 71% 9% 15% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lakeland 71% 9% 15% 1% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lethbridge 53% 18% 24% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner 66% 11% 17% 1% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Peace River--Westlock 67% 10% 16% 1% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Red Deer--Mountain View 68% 10% 16% 7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Red Deer--Lacombe 67% 9% 17% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Albert--Edmonton 48% 24% 24% 5% 99.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan 61% 14% 20% 0% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sturgeon River--Parkland 66% 11% 18% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Yellowhead 70% 10% 15% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abbotsford 49% 25% 22% 1% 3% 99.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Burnaby North--Seymour/Burnaby-Nord--Seymour
29% 32% 28% 5% 5% 25.7% 52.0% 22.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Burnaby South/Burnaby-Sud 28% 26% 42% 0% 5% 3.8% 2.1% 94.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Cariboo--Prince George 50% 24% 21% 3% 3% 99.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola 46% 29% 22% 1% 3% 97.2% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Chilliwack--Hope 47% 24% 22% 3% 4% 99.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Cloverdale--Langley City 35% 37% 23% 5% 37.2% 61.6% 1.2% 0.0%
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam 31% 37% 27% 5% 20.0% 72.3% 7.7% 0.0%
Courtenay--Alberni 31% 16% 46% 7% 1% 3.3% 0.0% 96.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford 24% 19% 41% 13% 2% 1.4% 0.3% 98.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Delta 34% 40% 20% 1% 5% 21.1% 78.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Fleetwood--Port Kells 30% 39% 25% 0% 5% 11.5% 85.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo 38% 33% 21% 5% 2% 70.9% 28.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kelowna--Lake Country 43% 36% 17% 0% 3% 79.8% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kootenay--Columbia 43% 13% 40% 2% 3% 63.6% 0.0% 36.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Langley--Aldergrove 45% 29% 21% 1% 5% 97.2% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon 40% 30% 23% 5% 3% 86.2% 12.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith 24% 17% 29% 28% 2% 14.2% 1.7% 53.4% 30.7% 0.0%
New Westminster--Burnaby 19% 26% 49% 1% 5% 0.0% 0.3% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0%
North Okanagan--Shuswap 46% 26% 20% 4% 3% 98.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
North Vancouver 24% 45% 21% 4% 5% 0.3% 99.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
BC

Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge 32% 32% 32% 4% 32.5% 32.8% 34.6% 0.0%
BC Port Moody--Coquitlam 29% 32% 35% 5% 13.1% 28.0% 58.9% 0.0%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies
67% 15% 14% 1% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond Centre/Richmond-Centre 45% 31% 19% 0% 5% 95.9% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke 17% 22% 40% 19% 3% 0.1% 1.1% 98.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Saanich--Gulf Islands 18% 20% 18% 42% 2% 2.3% 5.6% 4.0% 88.0% 0.0%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley 32% 16% 48% 2% 3% 3.6% 0.0% 96.4% 0.0% 0.0%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay/Okanagan-Sud--Kootenay-Ouest
33% 21% 41% 1% 3% 15.3% 0.3% 84.4% 0.0% 0.0%
South Surrey--White Rock/Surrey-Sud--White39%
Rock 40% 16% 5% 43.3% 56.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Steveston--Richmond East/Steveston--Richmond-Est
39% 38% 20% 0% 3% 54.7% 45.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Surrey Centre/Surrey-Centre 23% 40% 28% 4% 5% 1.0% 92.4% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Surrey--Newton 18% 46% 33% 4% 0.0% 94.1% 5.9% 0.0%
Vancouver Centre/Vancouver-Centre 18% 45% 28% 2% 5% 0.0% 97.6% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Vancouver East/Vancouver-Est 10% 21% 58% 7% 5% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vancouver Granville 25% 36% 34% 0% 5% 3.3% 54.3% 42.4% 0.0% 0.0%
North Island--Powell River 30% 17% 43% 7% 2% 6.5% 0.1% 93.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Vancouver Kingsway 17% 25% 53% 0% 4% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vancouver Quadra 25% 46% 20% 4% 5% 0.6% 99.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Vancouver South/Vancouver-Sud 30% 43% 23% 4% 5.3% 94.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Victoria 10% 26% 39% 22% 3% 0.0% 4.9% 94.8% 0.3% 0.0%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky34%
Country34% 17% 9% 5% 51.8% 47.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Yukon 35% 29% 33% 2% 71.4% 15.0% 13.6% 0.0%
Terr.

Northwest Territories/Territoires du Nord-Ouest

25% 41% 31% 2% 1.4% 96.4% 2.1% 0.0%
Nunavut 26% 32% 42% 0.2% 2.6% 97.2%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use
the federal vote intentions.