DPDHL Standard Presentation March 2018
DPDHL Standard Presentation March 2018
DPDHL Standard Presentation March 2018
Investor Relations
March 2018
Q4/FY 2017 HIGHLIGHTS
Group EBIT, in EUR m 2020: >EUR 5bn Delivering steady profitable growth
(8% CAGR 2013-20 + IFRS 16 effect)
5,000 Strong organic growth across all divisions, reflecting structural
4,500 e-commerce trend as well as macroeconomic acceleration
~4,150 2017 Group EBIT increase of 7.2%, delivering on guidance
4,000
3,741 EBIT growth drives strong Cash Flow generation, allowing to
3,500 balance growth investments and rising shareholder returns
3,000
EUR 1.15 dividend proposed (+9.5%) – 2020 Group EBIT guidance confirmed incl. adjustment for IFRS16 effect
EUR m FY 2017
Change, Change, Topline growth accelerated, and once more
EUR m % yoy translated into stronger EBIT growth
20,000
20,000 Parcel Revenue Post Revenue PeP EBIT EBIT guidance, EUR: 2,200
2,000
15,000 2020:
~ 1.7 bn 1,800
2018:
10,000 ~ 1.5 bn 1,600
1,400
5,000
1,200
0 1,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Since 2012 low point, EBIT up EUR >400m, all while investing in Parcel expansion
Americas [EUR 8.2bn ] Europe [EUR 7.1bn] Asia Pacific [EUR 8.0bn]
<1%4%
11% 17%
20% 10%
+2% 4%
43% 44%
49%
11% 11%
+3%
33% 19%
+5%
24%
17.1% 16.9%
Volume trends pick up and
10.3% 9.7% 8.6% rate development gradually
5.1%
3.9% 3.9%
2.3%
1.2%
2.4% 2.0% normalizing
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GP-to-EBIT conversion EBIT margin New IT system (IRR) completed
2015 EBIT adjusted for EUR -353m one-offs pilot and entered into roll-out
phase
DGF Gross Profit conversion, quarterly progression
2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017
New signings, EUR bn1) New signings by sector, FY 2017 Business Highlights
Engineering & Manufacturing Consumer EUR 1.5bn order intake again at record levels
1.5 1.5 Others
12% 17%
6%
Williams Lea Tag disposal reflects focus on our core
Life Sciences
& Healthcare 6% supply chain services
• Q4: no significant EBIT effect, FCF EUR +286m
25%
Technology
16% Retail • 2018 revenue reduced by EUR ~1.1bn with low-mid
2016 2017 double-digit million EBIT impact
18%
1) Annualized revenue 2016 incl. WLT; 2017 excl. WLT Automotive
€ 1.15
Target / maintain rating BBB+ €1.05
Underlying Payout Ratio1)
Dividend payout ratio to remain €0.80
€0.85 €0.85
between 40–60% of net profit €0.65 €0.70 €0.70
(continuity and Cash Flow
performance considered) 59% 58% 53% 49% 50% 46% 48% 52% 60%
Excess liquidity will be used for 40%
share buybacks and/or 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
extraordinary dividends
and/or Expected dividend payments of EUR ~1.4bn to
potential additional pension
funding (if not by other means) DPDHL shareholders on April 27, 2018
FY 2018:
Free Cash Flow: > EUR 1.5bn
Tax rate: ~18%
Gross Capex (excl. leases): ~ EUR 2.5bn
2017 has been another very successful year for DPDHL Group
Solid balance sheet and increasing cash generation support shareholder return strategy
Increasing Margins and Returns Investing for Growth Delivering Attractive Returns
Divisional self-help agendas Innovation, quality & customer Committed to FCF growth and
centricity improving shareholder returns
Divisions
Post - eCommerce- Global Forwarding
-EUR m - Express Supply Chain
Parcel Freight
2017
Revenue 18.168 15.049 14.482 14.152
Group revenues
€ 60.4bn EBIT 1.502 1.736 297 555
Margin 8.3% 11.5% 2.1% 3.9%
EBIT
€ 3.741bn Staff (FTE) 179.600 86.313 42.646 149.042
USO Provider for letter Core product Tide- Brokerage of transport Customized,
Market Products services in Air, Ocean outsourced logistics
products in Germany. Definite International
capitalization Parcel operations in (TDI): premium cross- and Road freight solutions through full
€ 49bn per Germany, Europe and border parcels and value chain
31.12.2017 selected international document delivery
markets
Geographies Germany - Europe 220 countries and >150 countries and >50 countries and
Americas -Asia Pacific territories territories territories
Approximately
500,000 employees 61% letter mail 34% global market # 1 in air freight #1 globally
Market Share # 2 in ocean freight 6.2% market share
in more than 220 Germany share
45% parcel Germany # 1 Europe, MiddleEast,
countries/territories Africa and Asia, # 3 US
Asset intensive: Express and PeP + Asset light: DGFF and DSC
EBIT EBIT
Margin1) margin1)
11.5% 3.9%
8.1%
8.3%
2.7%
4.4% 2.1%
1.8%
1) Rolling 12 month EBIT margins, DGFF adjusted for NFE write-off in Q3 2015
In order to stay ahead of the curve, we have to think in a creative way and not be
afraid to self-disrupt
INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION | MARCH 2018 PAGE 16
Focus. Connect. Grow.
54%
FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 80%
Parcel Germany revenue Parcel Germany volumes
Post revenue Parcel and eCommerce revenue
Parcel Europe revenue DHL eCommerce revenue Continued expansion into international parcel markets
EUR m +65.4% EUR m Parcel Europe: European coverage expanded to 26
Q4: +66.9% +10.3% countries, including Germany, thereof
Q4: +4.5%
- 2 greenfield countries (AT, SK)
1,882 1,385 1,528
1,138
- 7 internal asset shifts (NL, BE, PL, CZ, SE, ES, PT)
Good Parcel peak season combined with stable Post revenue and slight
EBIT PeP 490 510 +4.1%
positive contribution from International in the quarter
t/o Germany 496 503 +1.4% German EBIT only slightly up as peak season also comes with higher costs
t/o International
-6 7 >100% International Parcel expansion progressing to plan
eCommerce - Parcel
Operating Cash Flow 602 858 +42.5% OCF increase supported by timing effects
Capex 265 320 +20.8% Increase primarily driven by investments into German parcel infrastructure
DHL Parcel Germany, volume growth, yoy DHL Parcel Germany, market share development
+6pp
9.8% 9.8% 9.3%
8.7%
7.4% 7.0% 7.8% 39% 45%
• ~5.3m parcels per working day in 2017 • Capacity increased by >50% versus 2012
Leading service proposition translates into sustained increase in volume and market share
INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION | MARCH 2018 PAGE 21
MINIMIZING IMPACT OF CONTINUOUS MAIL DECLINE:
COST FLEXIBILITY IS THE KEY OBJECTIVE
Joint Delivery helps to optimize delivery of Revenue mix shift also reflected in delivery
declining mail volumes staff development
Dedicated Mail or
Increase in dedicated Parcel and joint delivery drives
Parcel Delivery
net hiring since 2010, as a result of strong Parcel growth
New wage structure provides competitive basis for
Population density, increasing order sustainable growth in Parcel Germany
Mail volume decline is a given, so our focus is on compensating measures in order to minimize
the impact and allow Parcel to drive PeP growth
INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION | MARCH 2018 PAGE 22
DHL eCOMMERCE: OUR PRODUCTS AND NETWORKS
Selected domestic assets combined with global cross-border delivery and vendor-neutral eFulfillment
Parcel Europe
One Parcel network for Europe
Quick and selective international expansion of e-commerce logistics – in and outside of Europe
INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION | MARCH 2018 PAGE 24
PEP: CONTINUOUS INNOVATION ALONG THE WHOLE VALUE CHAIN,
DRIVING STRUCTURAL E-COMMERCE GROWTH
Network orchestration
(e.g. routing, data analytics) Sustainable
Production / sorting delivery
(e.g. 50k/hour ; MechZB)
(e.g. Streetscooter)
e-commerce
growth
Penetration of
Last mile
new business fields
(e.g. grocery marketplace &
automation
delivery) Recipient solutions (e.g. Postbot)
(e.g. trunk delivery, DHL4ALL)
INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION | MARCH 2018 PAGE 25
Focus. Connect. Grow.
EXPRESS
Time Definite International (TDI), revenue per day, in EUR m1) Business Highlights
45.7 52.6 41.9 47.3 DHL Express, TDI volume growth, yoy
Q4 17 FY 17
27.4%
23.7%
17.6% 14.3%
Q4 2016 Q4 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 12.5% 12.8%
5.3% 3.6%
Strong TDI volume increase (+11.1%), yield management and higher fuel surcharge
Revenue 3,759 4,059 +8.0%
drive organic growth to 15.2% excl. adverse FX effects
Volume growth, yield performance across all verticals and efficiencies in air network
EBIT 434 499 +15.0%
costs drive EBIT growth above revenue increase: margin up 80bp to 12.3%
Operating Flat due to timing effects and more balanced steering of year-end cash management,
728 723 -0.7%
Cash Flow full-year OCF up 14.7%
Capex 279 605 +>100% High Q4 number reflects planned aircraft purchases
Portion of B2C TDI shipments has increased We grow B2C profitably because 90% of the KPIs
over time perfectly suit our network
1)
>10% 1) Volume growth drives better utilization
>23% SpD
of existing network
Our TDI product is attractive to e-tailers because we offer… Better utilization of existing infrastructure,
Hub sort
Unparalleled global door-to-door network with high degree of conveyables
Fast customs clearance Better utilization of existing capacity,
Airlift
Flexible delivery options with lower WpS being advantageous
Highest service quality & customer service Last mile Residential delivery to private households
1) Indications based on medium to large B2C customers of top 30 countries
X-Border e-commerce has developed into an important TDI vertical and profitable growth driver
INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION | MARCH 2018 PAGE 29
EXPRESS GROWTH SUPPORTED BY BALANCED GLOBAL FOOTPRINT
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
TDI Shipments/ day EU Europe MEA Middle East Africa AM Americas AP Asia Pacific
Approx. 500 airports and 22 major hubs connected Block Space Agreement, guaranteed air
through cargo product.
1. Dedicated air: >250 aircraft with 17 partner airlines on
>600 daily flights Express TDI core product, capacity
2. Purchased air: >300 commercial airlines with >1,800
BSA based on average utilization, adjusted on a
daily flights daily basis
CORE
TDI
CAPA- CORE Flex & Air Capacity Sales Flex, a
Capacity Commitment CITY set amount of the Total Spare Capacity to
be utilised for TDI core volume surge
FLEX and/or air cargo filler traffic
22% 0 - 90 Days (incl.
ACS
Purchased Air) GUAR. Air cargo guaranteed, a set amount of the
91 - 360 Days Total Spare Capacity guaranteed for priority
52%
traffic & key customers
26% Fixed
FORWARDING, FREIGHT
Air freight ‘000s Export - Tons Air freight gross profit Business Highlights
EUR m
+8.0% DGFF fully participating in market recovery with
-1.4%
Q4: +3.8% strong Air and Ocean freight volume growth in 2017
Q4: +11.0%
2,081 2,248 Successful peak season in AFR with 3.8% volume
875 863 growth translated into 11.0% GP increase reflecting
early peak season preparation
FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2017 Volume growth in OFR still being offset by GP
pressure in OFR market
Ocean freight ‘000s TEU1) Ocean freight gross profit Full-year DGFF EBIT slightly up as H2
improvement offset H1 decline
+6.5% EUR m Returning to former profitability levels remains 1st
Q4: +4.7%
-5.8% priority, long term ambition unchanged to close gap
3,059 3,259 Q4: -8.8% to benchmark performance - Simplify initiatives incl.
IT roll-out (IRR) on track
703 662
Good momentum continues, reflecting growth in AFR and OFR volumes - organic
Revenue 3,623 3,791 +4.6%
increase of 9.1%
AFR posting increase in absolute GP and GP/t – rate development in OFR still
Gross Profit 883 879 -0.5%
challenging with ongoing pressure on GP
EBIT 104 123 +18.3% Strong peak season well managed, margin at pre NFE levels of 3.2%
Operating
206 119 -42.2% Reflecting WC build-up due to increasing activity levels
Cash Flow
Capex 18 18 flat Stable on low level reflecting asset light business model
Forwarding is more than brokerage of transport, it is managing all the steps along the way
DGFF: recent EBIT and ROCE history Forwarding is an attractive industry – and
60% DGFF has a leading franchise, brand and
right people to be a successful industry
50%
leader
40%
We know our weaknesses and are
30%
committed to bringing our practices to
20% best-in-class levels
10% Our plan is ambitious, but the steps to
0% address our short- and medium term
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-10% challenges are well-described and
EBIT-Margin
accepted
-20% ROCE excl. goodwill ROCE incl. goodwill
FY
in € m 2017
Total revenues 14.482 DGF Gross Profit conversion and EBIT margin
Challenges Simplify
Decision-making and 1
Adherence to a set of clear business rules
execution takes too long along three areas:
Complex structures and Mindset and behavior
processes Roles and responsibilities
Working together as one Steering and incentives
network
No state-of-the-art IT
2 Structural cost reductions on all levels
systems yet and new digital
players entering 3 IT Renewal Roadmap (IRR)
SUPPLY CHAIN
Operating
520 28 -94.6% Includes provision movement from debt-financed UK pension funding
Cash Flow
Capex 73 83 +13.7% Increase in overall low spending due to phasing of new customer start-ups
Value Added
Services
Transportation
20%
33%
47%
Warehousing
Customer Benefits
• Significant overall cost savings through partnership for fulfillment and shipping
• Quality improvement, control over branding, packaging and inventory data
• Decreased shipping time through best-in-class supply chain technology and fulfillment
Using the full range of our cross-divisional experience and assets allows us to
differentiate in e-fulfillment and provide unique customer benefits
INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION | MARCH 2018 PAGE 43
DHL SUPPLY CHAIN HAS 9 INITIATIVES TO DELIVER STRATEGY 2020
Focus Connect Grow
Drive standardization and Create an effective Shift the portfolio…
reduce complexity… organization globally…
EBIT 3,491 3,741 +7.2% Steady profitable growth continued, delivering on guidance
Financial result -359 -411 -14.5% Affected by write downs on financial assets in Q3 and Q4
Tax rate at 14.3% - above 13% expectation due to revaluation of US tax loss
Taxes -351 -477 -35.9%
carryforwards (FY 16: 11.2%)
Consolidated Net profit and EPS increase slower than EBIT growth due to financial result and
2,639 2,713 +2.8%
net profit1) tax rate increase
EPS (in EUR) 2.19 2.24 +2.3%
1) Attributable to Deutsche Post AG shareholders
Taxes -115 -181 -57.4% Final full-year tax rate of 14.3% leads to Q4 rate of 17.2%
Consolidated
841 837 -0.5% Net profit and EPS not reflecting EBIT growth due to tax rate increase
net profit1)
EPS (in EUR) 0.70 0.69 -1.4%
1) Attributable to Deutsche Post AG shareholders
Strong FCF generation in excess of dividend taking into account EUR 495m pension funding
Strong OCF and FCF generation as usual in fourth quarter, despite the expected high capex spend
Net cash from operating activities Usual strong seasonal Operating Cash Flow generation, impacted
1,205 981 by EUR 495m pension funding in UK
before changes in Working Capital
Changes in working capital below last year due to a more
Changes in Working Capital 720 546
balanced steering of year-end cash management
Net cash from operating activities
1,925 1,527
after changes in Working Capital
Net Capex -404 -779 FY capex up in line with guidance, with Express investments
significantly up in Q4 due to expected aircraft purchases
Net M&A -260 284
Net M&A includes last year´s UK Mail acquisition (EUR - 278m)
and closing of Williams Lea Tag disposal in Q4 17 (EUR +286m)
Net Interest -60 -57
Free Cash Flow 1,201 975 FFO/Debt up to 32.0% (year-end 2016: 30.6% )
3,297
in EUR m
-1,967
-1,938
-2,261 -1,390 383
Net debt (Dec OCF after Net Dividends Other incl. M&A Net debt
31, 2016) change in capex paid (Dec 31, 2017)
W/C
Net finance costs ~ -350 Increase due to interest cost component booked in finance cost
Income taxes ~ -50 Lower during first years due to higher deferred tax assets
Whilst neutral over time, timing effect due to higher interest during
Cons. net profit ~ -150
first years
Main P&L effects: increase in EBITDA and EBIT, long-term neutral to net profit
1) Based on leases as per 1.1.2018
FCF: no change based on new definition: OCF – redemption of lease liabilities - net
FCF
capex - net M&A - net interest
1) Cash Out = benefit payments + employer contributions = staff costs + change in provisions, excluding one-offs
INVESTOR RELATIONS PRESENTATION | MARCH 2018 PAGE 53
OCF: OTHER PROVISIONS DEVELOPED IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS,
WITH NO CHANGE IN TRENDS EXPECTED
Trend, as
EUR m 2012 2017 OUTLOOK: drivers intact, trends expected to continue
expected1)
Other employee benefits 1,109 662 Further down reflecting net utilization
2017 Capex,
1,049
EUR m
Other
Vehicles
666 Hubs &
Gateways
Other
Post
Parcel
International 277 Other
Aviation IT
Parcel Other Transportation
Germany 70 Facilities
Warehousing
IT
PeP Express DGFF DSC
in EUR m
After UK funding, Group funding ratio up to 75%
17,723 17,486 17,381 Total DBO
DB pensions in Germany and UK
Net Pension
Germany: no regulatory funding requirement, funding 5,437 4,987 4,297 Provison
ratio at 60%
UK: after EUR 495m funding in Q4, funding ratio up to
98%
12,286 12,499 13,084 Plan Assets
Impact of change in discount rates on Group
Balance sheet: No significant impacts from discount
rate changes in Q4 17 - net pension provision declined
as a result of increased pension assets, mainly EUR Dec 31, 2016 Sep 30, 2017 Dec 31, 2017
495m UK pension funding
P&L: Changes made only on annual basis based on
prior year end discount rates Discount Rate Germany UK Other Total
Cash flow: Current pension payments and employer Dec 31, 2016 2.25% 2.75% 2.19% 2.39%
contributions to plan assets not affected by fluctuations Sep 30, 2017 2.25% 2.50% 2.24% 2.33%
in applied discount rate levels
Dec 31, 2017 2.25% 2.50% 2.23% 2.32%
THIS PRESENTATION CONTAINS CERTAIN STATEMENTS THAT ARE NEITHER REPORTED RESULTS NOR OTHER
HISTORICAL INFORMATION. THESE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE SUBJECT TO RISKS AND
UNCERTAINTIES THAT COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE EXPRESSED IN
THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. MANY OF THESE RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES RELATE TO FACTORS THAT
ARE BEYOND DEUTSCHE POST AG’S ABILITY TO CONTROL OR ESTIMATE PRECISELY, SUCH AS FUTURE MARKET
AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, THE BEHAVIOR OF OTHER MARKET PARTICIPANTS, THE ABILITY TO
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OF GOVERNMENT REGULATORS. READERS ARE CAUTIONED NOT TO PLACE UNDUE RELIANCE ON THESE
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS, WHICH APPLY ONLY AS OF THE DATE OF THIS PRESENTATION. DEUTSCHE
POST AG DOES NOT UNDERTAKE ANY OBLIGATION TO PUBLICLY RELEASE ANY REVISIONS TO THESE FORWARD-
LOOKING STATEMENTS TO REFLECT EVENTS OR CIRCUMSTANCES AFTER THE DATE OF THIS PRESENTATION.
THIS PRESENTATION DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL OR THE SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO
SUBSCRIBE FOR OR BUY ANY SECURITY, NOR SHALL THERE BE ANY SALE, ISSUANCE OR TRANSFER OF THE
SECURITIES REFERRED TO IN THIS PRESENTATION IN ANY JURISDICTION IN CONTRAVENTION OF APPLICABLE
LAW.
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UNLAWFUL.
THIS DOCUMENT REPRESENTS THE COMPANY‘S JUDGMENT AS OF DATE OF THIS PRESENTATION.
Robert Schneider
• +49 228 182 63201
• E-mail: [email protected]
Sebastian Slania
• +49 228 182 63203
• E-mail: [email protected]
Sarah Bowman
• +1 914 226 3437
• E-mail: [email protected]
Christian Rottler
• +49 228 182 63206
• E-mail: [email protected]