Impact of Diversification, Competition and Regulation On Banks Risk Taking: Evidence From Asian Emerging Economies
Impact of Diversification, Competition and Regulation On Banks Risk Taking: Evidence From Asian Emerging Economies
Impact of Diversification, Competition and Regulation On Banks Risk Taking: Evidence From Asian Emerging Economies
ABSTRACT
This study investigates the impact of diversification, competition and
regulation on banks risk taking. We selected the listed banks of Asian Emerging
Economies. There are total 215 listed banks out of which we have used the sample of
116 listed banks based on the availability of data. Data was extracted from the
financial statements of banks for the year of 2010-2018. In this study, Descriptive
Statistics, Multicollinearity diagnostic tests, Correlation analysis and two step
dynamic panel system GMM were applied to analyze the data.
The findings suggest that the current study is helpful for managers, regulators,
policy makers and researchers. For managers, the study helps them to make the
investing decision. The policy makers should take appropriate risk-taking decision
while considering factors such as diversification, competition and regulation. This
study can also be extended by incorporating market-based measures of bank risk-
taking and considering both developed and emerging economies sample.
Key words: Diversification, Competition, Regulation, Banks Risk Taking, Dynamic Panel
Approach, Asian Emerging Economies
1
CHAPTER NO 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
Banks have diversified over past couple of decades into a range of areas
shifting towards commission and fee-based services (securities trading, asset
management, investments, insurance) from traditional lending and deposit-taking.
Froot, Scharfstein and Stein (1993) and Froot and Stein (1998) in their respective
studies shows how probability of bank distress can be reduced by asset and income
diversification and shed light on how diversification is important for risk mitigation.
The quality of bank revenues can also be enhanced through diversification by
reducing information asymmetries and boosting the role of intermediation (Baele, De
Jonghe, & Vander Vennet, 2007; Köhler, 2014). Diversification has also shown to
promote financial innovation and competition (Acharya, Hasan, & Saunders, 2006;
Lepetit, Nys, Rous, & Tarazi, 2008).
2
In banking industry unlike non-financial companies, diversification might
create value for shareholders. Diversification through economies of scale could
improves banks’ profitability. Banks usually take advantage of their long-term
customer’s relationships that support banks to gather vital, various and significant
information of customer, which banks can use in the creation of their portfolios of
loan. If the economies of scope persist, it is predicted that bank’s stability and
efficiency are positively related with the diversification. Moreover, in the sector of
banking, technological advancement and deregulations are related to benefits of
diversification. (Buch et al., 2013; Iskandar-Datta & McLaughlin, 2007; Köhler,
2015; Le, 2017).
However, diversification can lead to less bank’s stability and further risk and
if the diversification cost surpass it benefits (Boyd, Graham, & Hewitt, 1993). Bank
diversification critics contend that if the operations of bank diversified, a decline in
the management’s comparative advantage can be suffered by banks, then bank will
get into a business way beyond bank’s capabilities, resulting in higher agency costs,
higher competition and inefficiencies.
3
lower competition encourages banks to have higher market power, which boost the
borrower’s default risk, therefore increasing the information asymmetry and moral
hazard problems.
In order to solve the proclaimed conflict , Berger et al. (2009) and MMR
(2010) proclaimed that theory of competition stability and the theory of competition
fragility both were put in at the same time in the process of lending and that the
association among bank stability and competition was not resulted linear. In the
empirical literature no harmony has been seen yet whether the banking industry’s
stability or un stability is made by competition.
4
manage maximum returns banks diversified into non-lending activities, specifically in
non-interest income-generating services and non-interest-bearing assets.
Risk taking has been an important concern for banks as bank failures are
concerned with immense risk taking. A review of studies indicates that
diversification, competition and regulation are important determinants of bank risk
taking, but there is lack of enough support to analyze bank risk taking based on these
three factors together. Competition, regulation and diversification strategies may lead
to improve banks stability. However, these strategies are not being practiced properly,
in emerging countries it leads to minimize the bank’s financial stability. The present
study addresses this issue.
Current study looks over the impact of competition banking regulation and
diversification on risk taking of banking sector in Asian Emerging Economies. The
main objective of this study is:
5
1.6 Significance .of this study
6
CHAPTER NO 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
Risk taking by banks has been an important concern for bank regulators. The
extent of bank risk-taking influences the chances of failure in banks and at macro-
level affects the banking sector’s sustainability. Bank risk is generally the banks’
possible loss due to the occurrence of events. Liquidity risk, market risk, interest rate
risk, operational risk and credit risk are key risks in banking. In banking sector, banks
risk-taking has been main theme in the literature and specifically banks behavior in
terms of risk and asymmetrical information. Greuning and Bratanovic (2009)
indicated that insolvency and credit risk are banks’ most significant risks.
Banks are urged to take excessive risk in the presence of information
asymmetry and limited capital. It is generally considered as the moral hazard issue, in
which one group to an agreement involves in activities that are harmful to the other
group. The issue is aggravated if deposit insurance exists. Government usually
presents banks with implicit and explicit deposit insurance in order to stabilize
financial system and boost the depositors’ confidence in the banking sector. Under
deposit insurance safety, the borrowers bear zero risk on their bank deposits. As a
consequence, lose motives to monitor bank transactions which incentivize banks to
take excessive risk taking. Researchers thus investigating the risk-based capital’s
effect on bank risk-taking with respect to moral hazard give emphasis to banks limited
liability and presence of the deposit insurance.
It is expected that the capital requirements tends to decrease risk-taking by
banks. Yet, under theory of moral hazard, the analysis does not always support this
argument. Several analysts to elaborate the effect of risk-based capital requirement on
banks risk taking relied on the franchise value theory . Franchise value in banking is
reffered to the net present value of the expected future profits of a bank. Banks have
nothing to protect in the absence of franchise value and thus no worry about
bankruptcy.
7
Extending from the literature on franchise value, capital buffer theory is
emerged, which shows behavior of banks under capital regulation. Consequently,
there are some implicit and explicit costs in altering capital levels. Implicit costs occur
from regulatory interventions to restrict the possibility of a deposit insurance, while
explicit costs relate to the constraints or sanctions imposed by regulators due to
inability to comply with both the minimum capital requirement and even liquidation.
Banks in order to reduce or avoid these costs have motives to keep a buffer of capital
higher than minimum threshold.
Risk-taking in banking sector may be triggered by a certain competitive
behavior or market power of banks. From the banking literature two approaches
emerge. According to the competition-fragility view, banks looked for additional
sources of income within a highly competitive environment and thus adopt more
aggressive risk-taking approach by making investment in riskier assets. Banks
involved in activities that offer them higher returns either to compensate their loss of
franchise value (Keeley, 1990; Marcus, 1984) or to maintain or improve their capital
reserves (Allen & Gale, 2004; Smith, De Nicoló, & Boyd, 2003).
There are no less numerous and less compelling arguments in favor of the
competition-stability model. Some studies proclaims that banks in a less competitive
markets are induced to lift their interest rates and thus making large amount riskier
loans (Boyd & De Nicoló, 2005; Caminal & Matutes, 2002). In fact, these banking
institutions are preferably to adopt a "too-big-to-fail" approach (Barth, Prabha, &
Swagel, 2012; Mishkin, 1999) that hampers banking sectors stability.
Banks’ riskiness is also intensified due to the financial institutions’
unwillingness to provide liquidity to their uncertain counterparts (Allen & Gale, 2000)
and to promote cooperation and assistance between interbank (Sáez & Shi, 2004).
Greater competition diminishes the amount of information that banks can accumulate
while making loans to borrowers (Hauswald & Marquez, 2006), thereby increasing
exposure to credit defaults.
Deyoung and Roland (2001) explain the sources of risk, which includes the
higher volatility in non-interest revenue, lower capital regulation and higher fixed
costs for banks engaged in additional business lines. Other reasons for increasing
risk include the higher agency problems, insufficient information about the product
market, lack of managerial skills (Acharya et al., 2006; Baele et al., 2007).
8
Banks risk taking is not only influenced by competition, there are some other
factors such as bank size, liquidity or growth among many other factors which can
impact the stability of banking sector.
2.1.2 Diversification
In finance, diversification refers to the process of allocating capital in a
manner that reduces the exposure to any particular asset. A common approach
towards diversification is to reduce uncertainty or risk by investing in different assets.
Diversification has been considered as a strategy which is very important for bank’s
financial performance and growth.
Internal capital market theory is considered being the important aspect which
leads firms to diversify. It allows firms to distribute capital in a more efficient manner
compared to external market (Williamson, 1973).The concept of agency theory is
presented by (Jensen & Meckling, 1976). From the perspective of diversification
strategy, agency cost may occur when management does not act in the interest of
firm’s shareholders. This is one of the reasons why firms opt for diversification
strategy (Amit & Livnat, 1988).
Applied to the banking sector, portfolio theory implies that diversification may
possibly decrease chances of failure. Diversification can also decrease the cost of
providing appropriate incentive to banks to screen borrowers (Diamond, 1984).
Diversification through the economies of scale can benefit banks (Diamond, 1991).
The client’s information which banks obtained in advancing loans may be used in
9
providing services such as securities underwriting. Therefore, the efficiency of all
those entities enhances which are more involved in multiple activities.
Portfolio theory also suggests that banks are able to reduce their exposure
either by diversifying their income sources or by diversifying assets into different
geographic areas. Reed and Luffman (1986) explain that the concept of diversification
has different explanations, especially when research work is concerned. According to
Qureshi, Akhtar and Imdadullah (2012), diversification is the way of entering in the
other markets. It can be divided into product diversification and geographic
diversification. Regarding product diversification, Su and Tsang (2015) describe
product diversification as the situation where firms are operating in more than one
market or more than one industry.
2.1.3 Competition
A basic theory of banking competition is that intensified competition between
banks may endanger the institutional stability and fetter overall banking sector
stability. Such competition by decreasing the banks’ franchise value may induce
banks to engage in riskier policies to maintain its previous profits. Lowering capital
levels and increasing credit risk of loan portfolio are example of riskier policies. Such
riskier policies lead to bank failure due to greater chances of increasing npl ratios. On
the contrary, restricted competition could induce banks through more stable policies
to safeguard their FV (franchise value) that lead to the stability of the banking sector
as a whole.
11
MMR (2010) extend the BDN (2005) view through the implementation of
imperfect correlations between borrowing firms. The BDN’s "risk-shifting" effect,
represents the consequence that intensified competition among banks results in
lowering loan rates, lessen the probabilities of banks’ default and improves stability of
banks. The lower rates, however, decreases interest payments by all firms and
therefore overall bank profits, which would eventually result in increased bank
failures. Authors defined it as “margin” affect. A U-shaped association among bank
competition and bank failure risk is found in the MMR view to capture the net effect
of those two forces. In concentrated markets, risk shifting effect dominates while the
margin affects dominates in competitive environment.
2.1.4 Regulation
Capital regulation is expected to enhance the stability of the banking sector by
applying mandatory capital buffers against unanticipated losses. Kahane (1977)
describes the Markowitz literature with a two-dimensional portfolio view and states
that likelihood of banks failures increases as a result of more stringent capital
regulation. Jacques and Nigro (1997) reveal that there was huge effect of risk-based
capital ratio on banks’ capital and risk levels. Van Roy (2011) claims that the efficacy
of capital regulation seems to depend on the ability of the regulator to establish capital
requirements and reduce moral hazards.
12
runs that could spill over to other banks (Diamond & Dybvig, 1983), improve
financial stability and prevent crisis (Demirgüç-Kunt & Detragiache, 2002).
Merton (1977) and Keeley (1990) in their theoretical evidences indicated that
deposit insurance might lead to moral hazard issue. Under the public safety net, the
existence of deposits insurance helps protects the depositors against failures of the
banks. Therefore, they find no reason to control or regulate the banks’ risk-taking
incentive. Within this scenario, if the banks have awareness of the relaxed attitude of
the depositors to monitor the bank’s activities, the risk of the contract would be
changed as banks might involves in riskier activities. As a consequence, the bank’s
moral hazard is increased by gambling and taking on additional risk by investing in
riskier projects to reap higher returns. Therefore, the advantages of deposit insurance
can be compensated by the worsening of the moral hazard effect. Empirical evidence,
however, indicates a reliably structured deposit insurance could mitigate the impact of
moral hazard (Demirgüç-Kunt & Huizinga, 2004), and improves financial
intermediation (Chernykh & Cole, 2011).
13
Amidu and Wolfe (2013) and Nguyen et al. (2012) in their respective studies
concluded that diversification strategies enhances stability of banking sector.
According to Iskandar-Datta and McLaughlin (2007), diversification helps financial
institutions to benefit from efficient use of managerial skills, greater efficiency and
cheaper supervision (Boyd & Prescott, 1986). Deng, Elyasian and Jia (2013) used
sample of US banks from 1994-2009 to analyze the features of diversification and
finds positive impact of larger institutional ownership on diversification which in turn
helps lowering risk. Abedifar, Molyneux and Tarazi (2018) also explore the
relationship between non-interest income sources and credit risk by incorporating
sample of U.S banks and their finding suggests inconsistent relation between these
two except for smaller banks which involved heavily in prudential activities which
tend to reduce credit risk.
Unlike the previous literature, a number of other studies reach at the opposite
conclusion that bank diversification is associated with extensive risk taking by banks.
Demsetz and Strahan (1997) and Deyoung and Roland (2001) in their studies discover
that revenues of banks becomes more volatile with increase in banks non-interest
income sources and show that large banks maintain lower capital ratios, hold larger
loan portfolios that are more involved in derivative market. Likewise, Acharya et al.
(2006) associate higher non-interest income with bad performance as diversification
decreases incentives of banks to monitor loan (that leads to poor quality loan
portfolios and decline in profits). A study is conducted on German banks during 1996
to 2002 by Hayden, Porath and Westernhagen (2007) to explore the impact of
portfolio diversification on risk and it was found to decline returns. Stiroh and
Rumble (2006) in their study aimed to find out connection between diversification,
risk-taking and profitability of bank holding companies in US perspective. Their
analysis show that non-interest based activities not only enhances profitability but
also exacerbates risk. Lepetit et al. (2008) conducted a study on European banks to
analyze impact of product diversification on banks risk taking during 1996-2002 and
their results indicate that expanding non-interest income activities leads to higher
banks credit risks.
14
risk. Baele et al. (2007) and Campa and Kedia (2002), concluded net diversification
benefits are associated with increased stability of banking. Laeven and Levine (2007)
and Mercieca, Schaeck and Wolfe (2007), in their studies declared that diversification
benefits offsets with its cost mainly due to over expansion into industries where lack
of expertise and higher competition prevails, diversification can decrease risk-
adjusted performance. Goddard, McKillop and Wilson (2008) found it to be true
particularly for small banks.
Brighi and Venturelli (2016) explore the effect of geographic and functional
diversification on performance of banks by using sample of 491 Italian banks during
2008’s financial and 2010’s sovereign debt crises. In both cases profitability of bank
declines. However, during 2008’s crisis risk of Italian banks stays unaffected, but
such risk intensified during sovereign debt crisis.
Lee et al. (2014) using sample of Asian countries find that diversification
does not increase banks profits but reduces risk. Following are some studies that
reports high involvement in noninterest based activities with improvement in
performance of banks and their risk-adjusted profits (Meslier et al., 2014; Pennathur
15
et al., 2012; Sanya & Wolfe, 2011). Hsieh et al. (2013) examines diversification
issues for the same countries during 2004 to 2009 and conclude that bank asset
diversification is insufficient to improve stability of banks.
Yeyati and Micco (2007) shed light on competition and risk tradeoff using
sample of banks in eight Latin American countries and indicate that more competition
among banks exacerbates bank risk, showing support for the “competition-fragility”
16
view. Turk Ariss (2010) by using a developing countries sample during the period of
1999-2005 finds that although banks with greater market power causes banks to take
excessive risk and improves banks profit efficiency, the banks cost efficiency will
decline.
17
In addition, Cubillas and González (2014) observed that increase in
competition is negatively associated with stability of banks using 4,333 banks
operates in 83 developed and emerging economies during 1991-2007. Kasman and
Kasman (2015) in their study on Turkey’s banks noticed that during 2002–2012,
competition and concentration both decreased banks stability and increase credit risk.
Their analysis, however, have found no support for a non-linear relationship between
them. For the first time, Kabir and Worthington (2017) in their recent study observed
positive association between market power and stability of Islamic and conventional
banks operates in 16 emerging economies during 2000–2012. However, findings
indicate greater impact of market power on stability of conventional banks. Leroy and
Lucotte (2017) conducted the study on European banks during 2004–2013 and
revealed that competition encouraged banks to take excessive risk. It nevertheless
continued to foster financial stability by reducing the banks’ exposure to systemic
risk.
18
inefficient banks take less risk but hold more capital. It also shows preference of
regulators for capital in order to restrict banks risk-taking incentives. Van Roy (2008)
conducted study on six G10 countries which indicates that there is no difference
between under capitalized banks and well-capitalized banks when it comes to
changing the ratio of risk-weighted assets to total assets.
In contrast, Jokipii and Milne (2011) discover that capital and risk are
positively associated in highly capitalized banks while undercapitalized banks are
found to have negative capital-buffer-risk relationship. It was also found that highly
liquidate banks can reduce their capital and boost their risk levels, as the higher
liquidity serves as banks’ self-insurance against the liquidity shocks. Athanasoglou
(2012) conducted a study on south eastern Europe after the 2008 financial crisis to
explore association of banks’ choice of equity or regulatory capital and risk. The
study reveals a direct connection between regulatory capital and risk, but negative
association between equity capital and risk. Although, Lindquist (2004) using sample
of banks in Norway finds negative association capital and risk.
19
According to Stiroh (2006), larger banks carries less risk. Moreover, Galloway
et al. (1997) and Saunders et al. (1990) in their studies show that larger banks under
the “too-big-to-fail” theory obtain regulatory protection. In general, larger size banks
are incentivized to take more risks than smaller size banks. Such banks have huge
potential for diversification and risk reduction. Also, they might be more vulnerable to
market movements than those of small size.
20
intermediation and concluded that bank difficulties intensified during crisis due to
exposure to credit and liquidity risks at the same time.
Louati et al. (2015) using sample of conventional and Islamic banks operates
in 12 South Asian and MENA countries during 2005-2012 found negative association
among liquidity ratio and credit risk of conventional banks. A study by Laidroo
(2016) analyze the comparison between the loan growth of foreign-owned banks and
domestic privately-owned banks. By using data of central and eastern Europe over
the period of 2004-2012, concludes that bank capital significantly influencing private
domestic owned banks in the absences of crisis, on the other hand bank liquidity is
important for private domestic banks in the presence of crisis.
21
financial inclusion resulted in development of economy and explores whether its
impact remains significant after controlling for inflation and GDP. Kosmidou (2008)
stated that GDP growth increases stability by enhancing profitability. Since GDP
growth is correlated with a general improvement in an economy's income and thus a
rise in financial inclusion.
However, Tan and Floros (2012) found that GDP growth is negatively related
with banks profitability which in turn have negative impact on stability. It was due to
the fact that rapid increase in economic growth in turn results in lowering banks
barrier to entry and thus intensified competition. Banks profitability declines as a
result of intensified competition which further leads to reduction in banking sector
stability.
22
financial intermediaries to not only increase leverage but also to take on excessive
risks (Adrian & Shin, 2009; Borio & Zhu, 2012). Theory provides contradictory
interpretations of the relationship among the real interest rate and risk-taking by
banks. According to Chodorow-Reich (2014), there is ambiguous impact on the
riskiness of investment pool. For limited scale investment projects, an increase in risk-
free rate raises the investments hurdle rate and convinces agents to cut low return /
high risk projects.
On the other hand, the monetary policy’s risk-shifting approach predicts that
increase in interest rates is associated with increase in banks risk taking. The
asymmetric information among banks and their debtors in these models prevents bank
depositors from pricing risk at margin. This in addition with limited liability guides
banks to take more risk. Consequently, banks will have to pay increased deposits
interest rates which will intensify the agency problem linked with inefficiency and
limited liability raise risk taking by banks. Stiglitz and Weiss (1981) concluded that
banks are exposed to severe agency problem when the interest rates are increasing
while their intermediation margins are flattened. Thus, the banks which are least
capitalized under risk-shifting models are found to be most vulnerable to the changes
in interest rate. However, the association among the interest rate and risk taking is
contrary to effect of portfolio allocation and they partly offset each other in the
models that considers both of them (Dell’Ariccia, Laeven, & Marquez, 2014).
23
H9:Inflation significantly affects bank risk taking.
24
CHAPTER NO 3
METHODOLOGY
The research design is the process in which the type of study, questions and
hypotheses of the research, variables and method of collecting the data are included.
Type of our research is secondary deductive, and we use quantitative data collection
technique for collecting variables data to examine impact of diversification,
competition and banks regulation on banks risk taking in Asian Emerging Economies.
Meslier et al. (2014) examines how bank revenue diversification affect the
banks performance in philippines using sample of 39 commercial banks from1999 to
2005 and apply two-way fixed-effects panel regression toward data analysis.Sanya
and Wolfe (2011) using emerging economies listed banks sample investigates impacts
of revenue diversification on banks risk and performance using GMM technique.
AlKhouri and Arouri (2019) conducted study on six GCC markets using sample of
69 listed Islmaic and Conventional banks during 2003–2015 to investigate the affect
of revenue diversification, non-interest income and asset diversification on the
performance and stability and used the System GMM methodology.Moudud-Ul-Huq
25
(2019) examines how diversification effect banks risk taking and performance by
using panel data of 1397 banks operating in Brics-5 and Asean-5 region during 2007
to 2015 and used dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM) for data
analysis and for validation of the results they have incorporated two-stage least
squares (2SLS).
3.3 Data
3.4 Statistics
26
3.4.1 Diversification Measures
Diversification is measured with following proxies: Income diversification and
Assets diversification.
where PTA it is the price of total assets i at time t, and MC TA it is the marginal cost of
total assets for bank i at time t.
27
3.4.2.2 H-statistic
An estimate of the extent of banking market competition. This calculates
Banks revenue elasticity relative to input costs. A rise in commodity prices increases
all marginal costs and total revenues by the same amount under perfect competition,
and hence the H-statistics equals 1. Under a monopoly, an increase in input prices
leads to an increase in marginal costs, a decrease in output, and a decrease in
revenues, resulting in an H-statistics of less than or equal to 0.
3.4.4.1 Z-Score
The Z-Score is extensively used as an indicator of bank stability in the
literature. It measures the number of returns of standard deviations must lessen before
a bank becomes insolvent (Stiroh & Rumble, 2006).
28
where ROA is the return on assets, E/A is equity divided by total assets and σ ROA is
the standard deviation of the return on assets. Although the Z-Score values are
strongly biased, we are using the Z-Score’s natural log which is normally distributed.
In the rest of the study we use the Z-Score symbol for reference to the Z-Score’s
natural log.
Asset growth (Gw) is another control variable included in the present study.
On the one hand, asset growth can worsen moral hazard and asymmetric information
issues if banks relax their criteria for loan screening when they grow rapidly, and such
asset growth can result in higher credit and bankruptcy risk (Abedifar et al. 2018). In
comparison, faster growth may indicate increased opportunities for investment and
diversification which may result in lower risk.
29
Stiroh and Rumble
Diversification Total Operating Income (2006)
Asset Ratio of Non-Interest-Bearing
4 AD Diversification Assets to Total Assets. Edirisuriya et al. (2015)
Demirguc-Kunt and
5 Ler Lerner Index Lerner = (PTA – MCTA)/ PTA Martinez Peria (2010)
Elasticity of Banks Revenues Moch (2013)
6 HS H-Statistics Relative to Input Prices Noman et al. (2017)
Capital Asset (Tier1 Capital +Tier2 Capital)
7 CAR Ratio Risk Weighted Assets Maji and De (2015)
Deposits Dummy variable takes one if Anginer et al. (2014)
8 DI Insurance DI is present otherwise, zero Fu et al. (2014)
9 Lev Leverage Equity to Total assets Ratio Lepetit et al. (2008)
10 Liq Liquidity Deposits to Total Assets Ratio Wagner (2007)
11 Size Size Natural Log of Total Assets Lepetit et al. (2008)
12 Gw Growth Annual Change in Total Assets Abedifar et al. (2018)
13 IR Interest Rate Deposits Interest Rate Nguyen et al. (2012)
Percentage Change in Consumer Amidu and Wolfe
14 Inf Inflation Rate Price Index. (2013)
GDP Growth
15 GDP Rate Annual GDP Growth Rate AlKhouri et al. (2019)
Where BR denotes Risk taking which is our dependent variable. Div, Comp and Reg
are independent variables in our model, Where Div stands for diversification, Comp
and Reg means competition and regulation. Leverage(Lev), Liquidity(Liq), Bank
Size(size) and Growth(Gw) are bank level control variables. While, GDP,
inflation(Inf) and interest rate(IR) are country level control variables in our model. μ
is error term.
30
ZS=α + β 1 ( ID ) + β 2 ( Ler ) + β 3 (CAR ) + β 4 ( Lev ) + β 5 ( Liq ) + β 6 ¿………………………
…………….. Eq.(1)
Model 4-6 are estimated with NPL (Non-performing loans ratio). Model 4 is
estimated with equation 4, which incorporates 1 proxy of each Independent variables
(ID, Ler and CAR) along with bank specific and country specific control variables.
31
NPL=α + β 1 ( ID )+ β 2 ( AD ) + β 3 ( Ler ) + β 4 ( HS ) + β 5 ( CAR ) + β 6 ( DI )+ β 7 ( lev ) + β 8 ( Liq ) + β 9 ¿
……………………………………………………………………...… Eq.(6)
3.6 Techniques
32
reasons. First, to control Omitted variable bias, omitted variable bias means that such
models are mis specified. Second, to monitor the endogeneity of the lagged dependent
variable in a system dynamic panel- in which the explanatory variables are associated
with the error term. Third, if heteroskedasticity is present, the GMM estimator is
more efficient. Finally, it is used to control measurement errors and panel
heterogeneity that are not observed.
33
CHAPTER 4
4.1 Results
34
the study include Lerner index and H-statistics, which show lesser variations in the
values. Regulation measures consists of CAR and Deposits insurance. Capital Asset
Ratio shows that on average banks in Asian emerging economies has minimum 16%
CAR. Control variables in the present study include Leverage, Liquidity, Bank Size,
Growth, Interest Rates, Inflation and GDP. All these control variables show lesser
variations in the values.
35
Table-2 Test of Multicollinearity
Variable VIF 1/VIF
Inf 4.99 0.2004
IR 3.42 0.2923
HS 3.16 0.3162
DI 3.00 0.3328
Ler 1.88 0.5330
Lev 1.87 0.5358
Liq 1.77 0.5636
GDP 1.44 0.6961
AD 1.40 0.7150
Size 1.31 0.7609
CAR 1.31 0.7623
ID 1.11 0.8979
Gw 1.08 0.9275
Note: VIF = Variance Inflation Factor
36
Table 4.2: Correlation analysis of listed banks in Asian Emerging Economies
37
38
The correlation matrix of all explanatory variables of the study is presented in
Table 4.2, which is calculated based on data of listed banks operates in Asian
Emerging Economies. Correlation matrix is analyzed to check the issue of
multicollinearity between explanatory variables. Highest correlation is 0.772 which is
between Interest rates and Inflation, while lowest correlation value is -0.005 which is
between Leverage and Interest rate. Therefore, results of correlation matrix show that
there is no highly correlation between explanatory variables, so there is no issue of
multicollinearity.
39
Table 4.3: Two-step system dynamic panel estimation with Z-Score
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
Variable
s Coef. t-Stat Coef. t-Stat Coef. t-Stat
L1. 0.184*** (3.13) -0.150 (-0.82) 0.120 (0.60)
L2. -0.179*** (-3.57) -0.386*** (-3.30) -0.375*** (-2.76)
ID -1.004*** (-5.39) --- --- -0.980*** (-5.97)
AD --- --- 1.336 (1.17) 2.340** (2.24)
Ler 0.312** (2.07) --- --- 0.756** (1.97)
HS --- --- -2.388*** (-2.91) -1.323 (-1.28)
CAR 0.594** (2.02) --- --- -0.163 (-0.17)
DI --- --- -0.245 (-0.23) -1.769** (-1.91)
Lev -0.806 (-0.61) 5.478 (1.23) 4.419 (1.14)
Liq 1.228** (2.57) -0.720 (-0.59) 0.593 (0.53)
Size -0.117 (-1.56) 0.259 (1.14) 0.234 (1.14)
Gw -0.088 (-0.56) -0.853** (-2.39) -0.422 (-1.28)
IR 2.558 (1.27) 2.200 (0.32) -0.402 (-0.05)
Inf -0.138 (-0.11) -1.533 (-0.35) 2.921 (0.69)
GDP 2.617 (1.33) 6.211* (1.83) 2.504 (0.57)
C 5.635*** (4.16) 1.144 (0.27) 1.336 (0.37)
Note: L1. is First Lag of dependent variable, L2. is second Lag of dependent variable, Z-Score is bank level Z-Score, ID is
Income Diversification, AD is Assets Diversification, Ler is Lerner Index, HS is H-Statistics, CAR is Capital Asset Ratio, DI
denotes deposits insurance, Lev, Liq, size, Gw denotes Leverage, Liquidity, Size and Growth, while IR, Inf and GDP are Interest
rate, Inflation and GDP,***, ** and * show significance level at 1%, 5% and 10%
40
Dahl, 1992). Deposit Insurance is the other measure of banks regulation in the study
which is negatively associated with banks risk taking means that increase in deposit
insurance results decrease in banks risk taking support moral hazard minimization
effect (Demirgüç-Kunt & Huizinga, 2004). Among control variables liquidity is found
to have positive impact on banks risk taking, while growth and GDP negatively affect
bank risk taking.
41
Table 4.4: Two-step system dynamic panel estimation with NPL
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
Variable
s Coef. t-Stat Coef. t-Stat Coef. t-Stat
L1. 0.055*** (21.12) 0.733*** (7.34) 0.7587*** (6.58)
L2. -0.035*** (-55.12) 0.133** (2.50) 0.1279** (2.39)
ID 0.021*** (3.18) --- --- 0.003 (0.86)
AD --- --- 0.012** (2.59) 0.037 (0.91)
Ler 0.032** (2.37) --- --- 0.039** (2.25)
HS --- --- -0.020 (-1.18) -0.014** (-2.54)
CAR -0.027*** (-3.63) --- --- -0.020 (-0.86)
DI --- --- -0.044* (-1.80) -0.027 (-0.65)
Lev -0.052** (-2.53) -0.014 (-0.30) 0.033 (0.43)
Liq 0.075*** (5.36) 0.029* (1.70) 0.025 (1.11)
Size -0.001 (-0.47) 0.011* (1.86) 0.012* (1.90)
Gw 0.032*** (6.41) -0.009 (-1.15) -0.012 (-1.29)
IR 0.955*** (10.44) -0.170 (-0.57) -0.112 (-0.36)
Inf 0.064** (2.13) 0.301** (2.75) 0.337** (2.49)
GDP -0.030 (-0.78) -0.097 (-1.55) -0.138* (-1.83)
C -0.036 (-0.89) -0.1375 (-1.19) -0.185 (-1.52)
Note: L1. is First Lag of dependent variable, L2. is second Lag of dependent variable, NPL is Non-Performing Loans Ratio, ID is
Income Diversification, AD is Assets Diversification, Ler is Lerner Index, HS is H-Statistics, CAR is Capital Asset Ratio, DI
denotes deposits insurance, Lev, Liq, size, Gw denotes Leverage, Liquidity, Size and Growth, while IR, Inf and GDP are Interest
rate, Inflation and GDP,***, ** and * show significance level at 1%, 5% and 10%
Model 4-6 are estimated with NPL ratio. Diversification has significant
positive impact on NPL Ratio when measured with income diversification and Assets
diversification. Significant positive association between income or assets
diversification and banks risk taking indicate that increase in income or assets
diversification results in higher npl ratio thus increase risk taking by banks,
empirically aligned with studies of (Boyd et al., 1993; Stiroh & Rumble, 2006).
Competition has significant negative impact using both measures in these models with
NPL Ratio supporting competition-stability view of (Boyd & De Nicoló, 2005).
However, banks capital regulations found to have negative impact on NPL Ratio
when measure with CAR and significant negative impact when measure with deposit
insurance. Increase in CAR results in declining NPL ratio thus decrease banks risk
taking indicating that bank can increase the capital base to meet the regulatory
requirement which reduce the portfolio risk and in line with study of (Jacques &
Nigro, 1997). All the Control variables are found to have significant impact on banks
NPL Ratio. Leverage and GDP negatively affect NPL Ratio while Liquidity, Bank
Size, Growth, Inflation and Interest rates are positively associated with Banks NPL
Ratio.
42
4.2 Major Findings and Discussion
Further, findings with Z-Score suggests that among control variables, GDP
negatively affect banks risk taking empirically aligned with study of (Kosmidou,
2008)and confirmed H10. Growth is found to have significant impact on banks risk
taking and confirmed H9. Liquidity is also significantly related with banks risk taking
analogues to the study of Diamond and Dybvig (1983) and confirmed H8.
When risk taking is measured with NPL ratio, both income and assets
diversification is found to be positively related with banks risk taking which indicate
that increase in income or assets diversification results in higher npl ratio thus
increase risk taking by banks empirically support study of Stiroh & Rumble (2006)
and confirmed H1.
However, competition is negatively related with NPL ratio which means that
increase in competition results in lower NPL ratio, thus reduces banks risk taking
theoratically support competition stability view of (Boyd & De Nicoló, 2005) and
confirmed H4. Regulation measured with both CAR and Deposit insurance negatively
43
impact banks risk taking which is empirically aligned with the study of (Jacques &
Nigro, 1997) and (Demirgüç-Kunt & Huizinga, 2004) and confirmed H6.
Further, results with NPL ratio suggests that all the bank level and country
level control variables have significant impact on banks risk taking and empirically in
line with the studies of (Laeven & Marquez, 2014;González,2005; Köhler,
2012;Louati et al., 2015) and confirmed H7 to H13.
44
CHAPTER 5
5.1 Conclusion
The banking sector has an important role in the economic growth of emerging
economies. There is need of detailed analysis of the stability of this sector at industry
level and at bank level. In the present competitive environment, financial
liberalization and financial markets openness has forced the banks to diversify.
Diversification benefits might not be similar across countries or regions.
Diversification, competition and banks regulations play significant role in determining
risk taking by banks. The impact of these determinants on banks’ risk taking has been
analyzed independently, but the combined analysis of these determinants still needed
to be analyzed.
The main purpose of the study was to investigate the impact of
diversification, competition and banks regulation on the risk-taking of listed banks
operates in 10 Asian Emerging economies. Banks risk taking is measured with Z-
Score and Non-performing loans ratio. Another purpose of the study is comparative
analysis of results using both measures of banks risk taking.
This section summarizes the research objectives and findings of the study
including an overall analysis of banking sector of Asian Emerging Economies. Then
the chapter discusses the recommendations based on outcomes of the study, then
practical implications of the research findings. Finally, it identifies drawbacks of the
study and explores future directions for further research.
Generally, results with Z-score show that income diversification reduce banks
risk taking while assets diversification is detrimental for financial stability Asian
emerging countries. On the other hand, results find support for competition-stability
view using both measures of competition. Regulation such as capital to risk weighted
assets ratio increase overall banks risk taking. While, the presence of deposits
insurance reduce risk taking by banks.
45
Results with Non-performing loans show that both income and assets
diversification increase probability of loan defaults thus risky for banks. Competition
using both measures negatively impact banks Non-performing loans ratio indicating
lower probability of default. Capital to risk weighted assets decreases banks
probability of failure. Overall analysis shows that diversification, whether income or
assets, competition and banks regulation have significant impact on both measures of
risk.
5.2 Recommendations
Based on the analysis and results, this study presents some recommendations
to bring improvement in the financial stability through appropriate risk-taking
decisions in the banking sector of Asian Emerging Economies. This sector needs to
improve its financial stability as the economy of these Asian Emerging economies
largely depends on their banking sector. The banks managers, Regulators and Policy
makers should consider identified determinants of financial Stability while making
major financial decisions. It is recommended that higher reliance on income
diversification could benefit banks in Asian emerging economies. But also, there is a
need of proper management of diversification decisions as inefficient diversification
can also lead to increasing in risk. This study also recommends that competition and
stricter capital regulations help banks to reduce risk taking and improves stability of
banking sector.
The findings suggest that the current study is helpful for managers, regulators,
policy makers and researchers. For managers, the study helps them to make the
decision whether or not to invest in non-interest-bearing assets. The implications of
the study provide how income diversification should be managed in order to improve
financial stability and reduce banks risk taking. The regulators and policy makers may
make such policies that help banks to reduce risk taking and enhance stability.
Firstly, this study can be extended by including both listed and unlisted banks
for the same sample of 10 Asian Emerging Economies. Secondly, this study can also
be extended by incorporating market-based measures of bank risk-taking. Thirdly, the
46
study can be extended by considering both developed and emerging economies
sample for comparison of results across these two regions. Lastly, the same research
can be done on the developed countries alone.
47
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Appendix
China
Sr. Bank Name Sr. Bank Name
1 Bank of China Limited 5 Huishang Bank Co Ltd
2 Bank of Jiangsu Co. Ltd. 6 ICBC
3 China Construction Bank Corp. 7 Haitong Securities Co. Ltd
4 Chonging Rural Commercial Bank
India
Sr. Bank Name Sr. Bank Name
1 Allahabad Bank 11 ICICI Bank Limited
2 Bank of Baroda 12 Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited
3 Canara Bank 13 Lakshmi Vilas Bank
4 Central Bank of India 14 Mahindra & Financial Services Ltd
5 Choalam Investment & Finance Co. 15 South Indian Bank
6 City Union Bank 16 Standard Chartered India
7 Corporation Bank Ltd. 17 Syndicate Bank
8 Dcb Bank 18 UCO Bank
9 Federal Bank Ltd. (The) 19 Union Bank of India
10 HDFC Bank Ltd 20 YES BANK
Indonesia
Sr. Bank Name Sr. Bank Name
1 Bank Bumi Arta Tbk 10 PT Bank BTPN Tbk
2 Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk 11 PT Bank China Construction Bank
3 Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) 12 PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk
4 Bank Pan Indonesia Tbk PT 13 PT Bank Ganesha Tbk
5 Bank Pembangun Jawa Tbk 14 PT Bank jRrust Indoseia Tbk
6 Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk 15 PT Bank Tabungan Nasional Tbk
7 Bank Victoria International Tbk 16 PT Bank Woori Indonesia Tbk
8 PT Bank Maspion Indonesia 17 PT Bank Yudha Bhakti Tbk
9 PT Bank BRI syariah Tbk
Lebanon
Sr. Bank Name Sr. Bank Name
1 B.L.C. Bank S.A.L 4 Banque BEMO Sal
2 Bank Audi SAL 5 BLOM Bank s.a.l.
3 Bank of Beirut S.A.L. 6 Byblos Bank S.A.L.
Malaysia
Sr. Bank Name Sr. Bank Name
1 Affin Holdings Berhad 5 Hong Leong Financial Group Bhd
2 CIMB Group Holdings Berhad 6 OSK Holdings Berhad
3 Hong Leong Bank Berhad 7 Public Bank Berhad
4 Hong Leong Capital Berhad 8 RHB Capital Berhad
Pakistan
Sr. Bank Name Sr. Bank Name
1 Allied Bank Limited 11 Habib Metropolitan Bank Limited
2 Apna Microfinance Bank Limited 12 JS Bank Limited
3 Askari Bank Limited 13 MCB Bank Limited
4 Bank Al Habib 14 Meezan Bank Limited
5 Bank Al-Falah Limited 15 National Bank of Pakistan
6 Bank Of Khyber Limited 16 Samba Bank Limited
60
7 Bank Of Punjab Limited 17 Silkbank Limited
8 BankIslami Pakistan Limited 18 Standard Chartered Bank (PK)
9 Faysal Bank Limited 19 Summit Bank Limited
10 Habib Bank Limited 20 United Bank Limited
Philippines
Sr. Bank Name Sr. Bank Name
1 Asia United Bank Corporation 10 Philippine Bank of Communications
2 Bank of The Philippine Islands 11 Philippine Business Bank
3 BDO Leasing and Finance Inc 12 Philippine National Bank
4 BDO Unibank Inc 13 Philippine Saving Bank
5 China Banking Corporation 14 Philippine Trust Company
6 Citystate Savings Bank, Inc. 15 Rizal Commercial Banking Corp.
7 Col Financial Group, Inc 16 Security Bank Corporation
8 First Metro Investment Corporation 17 Union Bank of the Philippines
9 Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co.
Thailand
Sr. Bank Name Sr. Bank Name
1 Bangkok Bank Public Co. Limited 6 MFC Asset Management Co. Ltd
2 CIMB Thai Bank Public Co. Limited 7 Siam Commercial Bank Co. Ltd
3 Kiatnakin Bank Public Co. Limited 8 Thanachart Capital Public Co. Ltd
4 Krung Thai Bank Public Co. Limited 9 TISCO Financial Group PCL
5 Kim Eng Securities Public Co. Ltd 10 TMB Bank Public Co. Ltd
Turkey
Sr. Bank Name Sr. Bank Name
1 Akbank T.A.S. 5 Koçbank
2 Denizbank A.S. 6 Sekerbank T.A.S.
3 Finansbank A.S. 7 Turk Ekonomi Bankasi A.S.
4 HSBC Bank (Turkey) 8 Yapi Ve Kredi Bankasi A.S.
Vietnam
Sr. Bank Name Sr. Bank Name
Saigon Thuong Commercial JS
1 Asia Commercial Bank 3 Bank
2 Saigon - Hanoi Commercial JS Bank
61