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    SUTRA Model: Arpita Sharma Classes

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    Harish Kumar
    1. The National COVID 19 Supermodel Committee was formed by the Government of India to predict the spread of COVID 19 in India using the SUTRA model developed by scientists from IIT Kanpur and Hyderabad. 2. The SUTRA model uses three main parameters - beta (contact rate), reach (exposure level), and epsilon (ratio of detected to undetected cases) to make projections, but it faced criticism for inconsistent projections and ignoring key factors like virus behavior and population heterogeneity. 3. The model was blamed for creating a perception in October 2020 that a second wave was unlikely in India, but a devastating second wave occurred in April 2021, undermining the model's accuracy.

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    SUTRA Model: Arpita Sharma Classes

    Uploaded by

    Harish Kumar
    27 views4 pages
    1. The National COVID 19 Supermodel Committee was formed by the Government of India to predict the spread of COVID 19 in India using the SUTRA model developed by scientists from IIT Kanpur and Hyderabad. 2. The SUTRA model uses three main parameters - beta (contact rate), reach (exposure level), and epsilon (ratio of detected to undetected cases) to make projections, but it faced criticism for inconsistent projections and ignoring key factors like virus behavior and population heterogeneity. 3. The model was blamed for creating a perception in October 2020 that a second wave was unlikely in India, but a devastating second wave occurred in April 2021, undermining the model's accuracy.

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    1. The National COVID 19 Supermodel Committee was formed by the Government of India to predict the spread of COVID 19 in India using the SUTRA model developed by scientists from IIT Kanpur and Hyderabad. 2. The SUTRA model uses three main parameters - beta (contact rate), reach (exposure level), and epsilon (ratio of detected to undetected cases) to make projections, but it faced criticism for inconsistent projections and ignoring key factors like virus behavior and population heterogeneity. 3. The model was blamed for creating a perception in October 2020 that a second wave was unlikely in India, but a devastating second wave occurred in April 2021, undermining the model's accuracy.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    27 views4 pages

    SUTRA Model: Arpita Sharma Classes

    Uploaded by

    Harish Kumar
    1. The National COVID 19 Supermodel Committee was formed by the Government of India to predict the spread of COVID 19 in India using the SUTRA model developed by scientists from IIT Kanpur and Hyderabad. 2. The SUTRA model uses three main parameters - beta (contact rate), reach (exposure level), and epsilon (ratio of detected to undetected cases) to make projections, but it faced criticism for inconsistent projections and ignoring key factors like virus behavior and population heterogeneity. 3. The model was blamed for creating a perception in October 2020 that a second wave was unlikely in India, but a devastating second wave occurred in April 2021, undermining the model's accuracy.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 4

    SUTRA Model Arpita Sharma Classes

    ➢ Scientists from the IITs of Kanpur and Hyderabad have applied the SUTRA
    Model to predict the Covid graph in India.

    ✓ It first came into public attention when one of its expert members
    announced in October 2020 that India was “past its peak”.

    ▪ Many scientists are blaming the government-backed model, called


    SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed
    Approach), for having a larger role in creating the perception that
    a second wave of Covid was unlikely in India.
    ▪ The second wave of Covid-19 has claimed thousands of lives since
    April 2021.

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    The model uses three main parameters to predict the course of the pandemic
    which are :

    1. Beta: Also called contact rate, which measures how many people an
    infected person infects per day. It is related to the R0 value, which is the
    number of people an infected person spreads the virus to over the course
    of their infection.
    2. Reach: It is a measure of the exposure level of the population to the
    pandemic.
    3. Epsilon: It is the ratio of detected and undetected cases.

    1. National COVID 19 Supermodel Committee was formed by the Government of India to make projections
    about the spread of COVID 19 in India
    2. The committee comprises scientists from IIT Kanpur and Hyderabad

    Use Code Arpita10 to get 10% Discount on Unacademy Plus


    Problems
    The problems with this criterion are –
    o Variability
    There have been numerous examples of the projections existing far out of the edges of the substantial
    caseload and the projections of the model are too inconsistent to counsel administration policy.
    o Too Many Parameters
    The model was complicated as it was sure of too many parameters, and recalibrated those parameters
    whenever its projections “broke down”. The additional parameters you have, the extra you are in the
    problem of ‘overfitting’. You can match any curve over a quick time window with 3 or 4 parameters.
    o Ignores Behaviour of the Virus
    The model’s negligence of the significance of the behaviour of the infection; the fact that some
    populations were larger transmitters of the virus than others and an absence of calculation for civil or
    geographic heterogeneity and not satisfying the community by generation as it didn’t fund for
    connections between several age groups also weakened its existence.
    o Ignores the Reason for Change
    Recent variants showed up in the SUTRA prototype as an improvement in the integrity of parameters
    called ‘beta’ (that totalled connection rate). As distant as the criterion is interesting, it is examining
    differences in parameter importance. It does not attend to what is the justification behind the
    modification.
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