Research Article

Vision
25(1) 23–35, 2021
COVID-19 and Its Impact on the © 2021 MDI

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DOI: 10.1177/0972262921989126
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Vikas Barbate1, Rajesh N. Gade2 and Shirish S. Raibagkar3

Abstract
Pessimism looms large all over. COVID-19 has been projected as worse than the Great Depression of 1930. Everyday analyst and
agency reports are diving into new bottoms of a fall-down in economic activities. Indian economy, however, has a slightly different
story to tell at this hour of crisis. The silver lining for the Indian economy comes from a steep fall in the crude oil prices from around
$70 per barrel to a record 18 years low of $22 per barrel. This windfall gain can, to some extent, offset the direct losses due to
COVID-19. At the same time, dreams like a $5 trillion economy no longer look even a remote possibility. This article takes stock of
the likely impact of COVID-19 on the Indian economy in the short term and the long term. A decision-tree approach has been adopted
for doing the projections.

Key Words
Economics, Economics and Strategy, Home Economics, Macroeconomics

Introduction reviews. As a policy emphasis was given on reference to

agency research rather than individual author opinions.
The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of Agency research offers more credibility and reliability.
COVID-19 on the Indian economy in the short term and Five popular economic indicators: GDP growth rate,
the long term. The research question being addressed is inflation, unemployment, interest rate and industrial
What will be the impact of COVID-19 on the Indian output, were chosen for measurement of the impact.
economy in the short term and the long term? A decision- Findings for this paper are in the form of short-term and
tree approach has been adopted for doing the projections long-term projections for the key economic indicators.
that spell out the impact. Different scenarios have been These have been given and discussed at the end of the
considered for assessment of the economic impact. These assessment of each of the economic indicators. Moreover,
scenarios have been constructed to follow the generally they have also been consolidated before the conclusion. A
adopted standard pattern of ‘best’, ‘middle’ and ‘worst’ few suggestions have been given as a part of the conclusion.
(Hyndman & Athanasopoulos, 2018). In most of the pro- Ever since the break out of COVID-19 virus pandemic,
jections, a scenario framework of strong, moderate and analysts and experts worldwide are in a race to project
weak recovery of the economy has been considered in line bigger and bigger economic troubles for the global
with the three general options that are used. economy. With each day passing, the new forecasts are
Since the Indian economy is a part of the global economy showing a gloomier picture than the previous one. A
first a stock of the global impact has been taken. Before decline of the global economy by 1% as compared to the
measuring the likely impact on the Indian economy, the previous projection of a 2.5% growth has been forecasted
methodology has been spelled out in the assessment part of by the UN on 2 April 2020 (The Economic Times, 2020a).
the paper. A wide range of literature in the form of global The net impact that is projected is around 3.5%. The size of
and local reports from eminent financial experts has been the world economy in 2017 was $80 trillion, as shown in
referred. Tables 1 and 2 give details of these literature Figure 1.

1 ASM Institute of Professional Studies, Pimpri, Pune, India.

2 Lotus Business School, Pune, India.
3 The Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of India, Ahmednagar, Maharashtra, India.

Corresponding author:
Shirish S. Raibagkar, Smita Sadan, Behind Suyog Apartments, Sona Nagar, Savedi Road, Ahmednagar, Maharashtra 414 001, India.
E-mail: [email protected]
24 Vision 25(1)

Figure 1.  World GDP, 2017

Source: Howmuch.net (2018).

Table 1.  Global Economic Forecast of Some Leading Agencies

Sr. No. Agency Date of Report Forecast

1 Goldman Sachs (2020)a 20 March 2020 US GDP −2% in 2Q, a record drop
2 Deutsche Bank (2020)a 18 March 2020 The worst global recession since World War II
3 J P Morgan (2020)a 12 March 2020 Recession will rock the US and Europe by July
4 Bank of America (2020)a 19 March 2020 The US economy has fallen into recession
5 Pacific Investment Management (2020)a 16 March 2020 Inevitable recession
6 Morgan Stanley (2020)a 17 March 2020 Base case is a global recession
7 UBS (2020)a 19 March 2020 Deep recession by July
Source: Business Insider (2020b).
Note: aAs cited in Business Insider (2020a).

A 3.5% hit to the $80 trillion world economy means $2.8 Stocks across the globe have taken a big hit especially
trillion which was the exact size of the entire Indian economy in March 2020 as more information came about the depth
in 2018–2019, the world’s fifth largest (India Today, 2019). and the width of the pandemic (Figure 2).
The vicious circle leading to economic depression has set on The last 6-month crude oil price per barrel (in USD) has
a roll. Lower consumption, reduced demand, falling prices, shown a steep fall (Figure 3). The fall in the price is as high
supply cut, job cuts, lower spending, lower consumption— as 58.39% and is very steep in March 2020.
all the blocks look like a perfect fit. Recent predictions about The rate of claims by the jobless in the US was hovering
the gloomy prospects for the world economy from some of around 0 mark till 15 March 2020. But after just few days,
the big names are shown in Table 1. it shot up to 4,000 and was slated to be double in the next
15 days (Figure 4).
What we understand is that the numbers shown and
Key Global Indicators of the Fear
discussed above are only an initial reaction. The real punch
There has already been a strong initial knee-jerk reaction in is yet to come and as per some of the analysts that will be
the global economy as things started unfolding. felt by June–July 2020.
Barbate et al. 25

Figure 2. Global Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Markets

Source: BBC News.

Figure 3. Global Impact of COVID-19 on Crude Oil Prices

Source: Businessinsider.com.

Figure 4. Global Impact of COVID-19 on US Jobless Claims

Source: Tradingeconomics.com.
26 Vision 25(1)

Materials and Methods Methodology in Details

Notwithstanding the silver lining in the form of low crude Outline of the methodology is given below:
oil prices, the Indian economy is all set to follow global
cues. This article tries to assess the impact from both short- 1. For each of the five economic indicators, ascertain
term and long-term perspectives. Short term has been the actual value as of year ended 2019–2020.
defined as the financial year 2020–2021. Long term has 2. Consider three scenarios of level of pessimism—
been defined as a 5-year period from 2020–2021 to 2024– moderate, average and severe pessimistic situations
2025. The assessment of the impact on the economy has of recovery in 2020–2021.
3. Assign estimated values for change in the year
been operationally defined as the impact on the following
2020–2021 for all the three situations.
key economic indicators:
4. Assigning equal probability of 0.33 each to all the
three situations, calculate a single expected value
• GDP for the year 2020–2021 as a weighted product of the
• Unemployment rate probability and estimated values of changes in all
• Inflation rate the three situations.
• Interest rate 5. Adjust the current value of the economic indicator
• Industry output (April 2020) for the expected value of the estimated
change. The adjusted value will, thus, be the fore-
cast for the year 2021–2021.
Theoretical Foundations 6. Estimate the changes for the next 4 years for each of
The method primarily applied for assessment of the impact the three scenarios of moderate, average and severe
is by way of forecasting through the decision-tree approach pessimistic situations of recovery in 2021–2022,
in which generally three possibilities have been assumed in 2022–2023, 2023–2024 and 2024–2025.
the nature of ‘best’, ‘middle’ and ‘worst’ (Hyndman & 7. Adjust the 2020–2021 projection to the estimated
Athanasopoulos, 2018). Probabilities have been estimated changes projections for each of the three recovery
for the scenarios and expected values (EVs) have been cal- scenarios of strong, moderate and weak recovery
culated aggregating values of the three scenarios. The situations and for each of the four years 2021–2022,
probabilities have been estimated assuming equal chance 2022–2023, 2023–2024 and 2024–2025.
for all the three types of scenarios. The base values measur-
The forecasts have been formulated as under:
ing the five parameters, namely, GDP, unemployment rate,
inflation rate, interest rate and industry output have been Forecast 2020–2021 = Actual 2019–2020 + Expected value
estimated based on an incremental approach with more or of estimated change in 2020–2021 under the three scenarios
less equal amount of intervals in the three base values. of moderate, average and severe pessimistic situations
However, in some cases, where the impacts are estimated Forecast 2021–2022 (Strong recovery) = Forecast 2020–
to be uneven, the base values for scenario forecasting have 2021 + Expected change in case of strong recovery
been estimated with different length of interval amounts
(Van Asselt et. al, 2012). The basic model has been drawn Forecast 2021–2022 (Moderate recovery) = Forecast 2020–
from the famous article ‘Decision trees for decision 2021 + Expected change in case of moderate recovery
making’ by Magee (1964), published in the Harvard Forecast 2021–2022 (Weak recovery) = Forecast 2020–
Business Review. 2021 + Expected change in case of weak recovery

Figure 5.  Forecasting Model

Source: Compiled by authors.
Barbate et al. 27

The forecasting model is shown in Figure 5 for quick dramatically given the range of possibilities for 2020–
understanding. 2021. A decision-tree model can be adopted considering
three pessimistic situations: moderate, average and severe.
The choice of three options for a decision tree is based Probability estimates for these three scenarios at this point
more on the convention of taking three splits for the root in time (April 2020) can be taken as 0.33 each. The cuts in
(Hoare, 2020). More number of options can be taken. the GDP growth rates for the three scenarios can be taken
However, for convenience in calculations, the convention as −2%, −4% and −6%, respectively, for moderate, average
is to take three options. and severe pessimistic situations. Taking into account these
scenarios, their probabilities and the expected outcome,
decision-tree structure, as shown in Figure 6, emerges.
Results: Assessment of the Impact Aggregating the three EVs, −0.66%, −1.32% and
GDP Growth Rate −1.98%, the expected cut in the GDP growth rate forecast
for 2020–2021 is −3.96%. Adding this to the average of the
Estimates for 2020–2021 10 expert projections, the adjusted GDP growth forecast
A number of research agencies, financial institutions and for the Indian economy for 2020–2021 comes to 3.41% −
experts have given a forecast of India’s GDP growth rate for 3.96% = −0.55%. Thus, there is all likelihood that the GDP
2020–2021. Table 2 presents a summary of these estimates. for 2020–2021 might remain flat if not turn southwards.
Correction of these forecasts: All these forecasts were
corrected by applying weights of 3 for April 2020 reports, Estimation for the Next 5 Years
2 for March 2020 reports and 1 for February 2020 and An important factor influencing the GDP projections for
earlier period reports, as shown in Table 3. the next 5 years is the likely recovery rate. Three such
The weighted average rate for these 10 forecasts comes scenarios with equal probabilities can be considered as
to 3.41% (0.818/24). These numbers can change strong, moderate and weak recovery. For a strong recovery,

Table 2.  India’s GDP Growth Rate Forecast by Some Leading Agencies

Sr. No. Agency Date of Report Indian GDP Growth Rate Forecast for 2020–21
 1 ICRA (Noronha, 2020a) 7 April 2020 2%
 2 Fitch (PTI, 2020a) 10 April 2020 2%
 3 ADB (Noronha, 2020b) 3 April 2020 4%
 4 S&P (Business Line, 2020) 23 March 2020 5.2%
 5 The UN Economic and Social Survey of Asia and 9 April 2020 4.8%
the Pacific (ESCAP) 2020, (PTI, 2020c)
 6 Goldman Sachs (The Economic Times, 2020b) 8 April 2020 1.6%
 7 India Ratings (Sinha, 2020) 31 March 2020 3.6%
 8 Moodys (ET Bureau, 2020) 27 March 2020 2.5%
 9 CRISIL (PTI, 2020b) 20 March 2020 5.2%
10 Economic Research (NCAER) (The Economic 21 February 2020 5.6%
Times, 2020c)
Source: Compiled by authors.

Table 3.  India’s GDP Growth Rate Forecast (Corrected) by Some Leading Agencies

Date of Indian GDP Growth Rate Weighted

Sr. No. Agency Report Forecast for 2020–21 Weights Rate
 1 ICRA 7 April 2020 2.00% 3 0.060
 2 Fitch 10 April 2020 2.00% 3 0.060
 3 ADB 3 April 2020 4.00% 3 0.120
 4 S&P 23 March 2020 5.20% 2 0.104
 5 The UN Economic and Social Survey of Asia 9 April 2020 4.80% 3 0.144
and the Pacific (ESCAP) 2020
 6 Goldman Sachs 8 April 2020 1.60% 3 0.048
 7 India Ratings 31 March 2020 3.60% 2 0.072
 8 Moodys 27 March 2020 2.50% 2 0.050
 9 CRISIL 20 March 2020 5.20% 2 0.104
10 Economic Research (NCAER) 21 February 2020 5.60% 1 0.056
      Total 24 0.818
Source: Compiled by authors.
28 Vision 25(1)

Figure 6. Decision Tree for GDP Growth Rate Cut for 2020–2021
Source: Compiled by authors.

Figure 7. India’s GDP Growth Rate Forecast up to 2024–2025

Source: Compiled by authors.

a positive average growth rate of 2% per year can be A decision-tree model can be adopted considering three
assumed. For a moderate recovery, a positive average pessimistic situations: moderate, average and severe.
growth rate of 1% per year can be assumed. For a weak Probability estimates for these three scenarios at this point
recovery, a positive average growth rate of 0.50% per year in time (April 2020) can be taken as 0.33 each. The
can be assumed. Likely situation under these three increment in the unemployment rates for the three scenarios
scenarios of recovery are shown in Figure 7. can be taken as 2%, 6% and 12%, respectively, for
If the recovery is strong, in the year 2024–2025, the moderate, average and severe pessimistic situations.
growth rate might reach up to 7.45%. If the recovery is Taking into account these scenarios, their probabilities and
moderate, in the year 2024–2025, the growth rate might the expected outcome, a decision-tree structure emerges, as
reach up to 3.45%. If the recovery is weak, in the year shown in Figure 9.
2024–2025, the growth rate might reach up to 1.45%. Aggregating the three EVs, 0.66%, 1.98% and 3.96%, the
expected increment in the unemployment rate forecast for
Unemployment Rate 2020–2021 is 6.60%. Adding this to the current rate of
unemployment of 13.53%, the adjusted average unemploy-
Estimates for 2020–2021 ment forecast for the Indian economy for 2020–2021 comes
The recent past has shown a sudden spurt in the to 13.53% + 6.60% = 20.13%. Thus, there is all likelihood
unemployment rate, as shown in Figure 8. that the unemployment rate for 2020–2021 might cross 20%.
Barbate et al. 29

Figure 8.  India’s Unemployment Rate over the Past 20 Days

Source: Unemploymentinindia.cmie.com, 2020.

Figure 9.  Decision Tree for the Unemployment Rate for 2020–2021
Source: Compiled by authors.

Estimates for 2024–2025 Inflation Rate

An important factor influencing the unemployment rate Estimates for 2020–2021
projections for the next 5 years is the likely recovery rate.
Recent trends in inflation are given in Figure 11.
Three such scenarios with equal probabilities can be
Three factors are likely to contain inflation in the short
considered as strong, moderate and weak recovery. For a
term. These are as follows:
strong recovery, an average decline rate of 2% per year can
be assumed. For a moderate recovery, an average decline
• Falling crude oil prices
rate of 1% per year can be assumed. For a weak recovery, • Reduced demand in the aftermath of COVID-19
an average decline rate of 0.5% per year can be assumed. pandemic
Likely situation under these three scenarios of recovery are • Governments efforts to ensure supply of essential
shown in Figure 10. items
If the recovery is strong, in the year 2024–2025, the
unemployment rate might drop down to 12.13% from a peak As of now, the government has not passed on to the
of 20.13% in 2020–2021. If the recovery is moderate, the consumers any reduction in oil prices. Petrol and diesel
unemployment rate might drop down to 16.13% from a peak continue to sell at the old rates. This is something that the
of 20.13% in 2020–2021. If the recovery is weak, in the year government is holding in its hand, which can use to curb
2024–2025, the growth rate might reach up to 18.13%. inflation if it crosses reasonable limits. Further the demand
30 Vision 25(1)

Figure 10. India’s Unemployment Rate Forecast up to 2024–2025

Source: Compiled by authors.

Figure 11. India’s Inflation Rate During 2019–2020

Source: MOSPI (2020).

itself has taken a major beating and is expected to keep the Supply rationing from government will also have limita-
prices under check. At the same time, government has tions, and, hence, normalcy in the supply chain will only
aggressively launched supplies of essential food items ensure that the inflation is kept under check.
through rationing and other sources, which again, is likely Consistent with methods used earlier, three such
to keep inflation under check. As the stock of items gets scenarios with equal probabilities can be considered as
exhausted, the government will allow selective production strong, moderate and weak recovery. For a strong recovery,
facilities to resume operations with the use of adequate an average rise of 0.5% per year can be assumed. For a
safety measures. All these measures together are likely to moderate recovery, an average rise of 1% per year can be
keep inflation in the year 2020–2021 under some check. assumed. For a weak recovery, an average rise of 2% per
The average inflation rate for the year 2020–2021 is not year can be assumed. Likely situations under these three
likely to go beyond 5–6%. scenarios of recovery are shown in Figure 12.
If the recovery is strong, in the year 2024–2025, the
Estimates for 2024–2025
inflation rate might rise to 8% from a level of around 6% in
Long-term impact on inflation will also depend on the 2020–2021. If the recovery is moderate, the inflation rate
mode of recovery of the economy. If the recovery is weak, might rise to 10% from a level of around 6% in 2020–2021.
certainly it will adversely impact inflation, because con- If the recovery is weak, the inflation rate might rise to 14%
sumption will not be contained below a certain limit. from a level of around 6% in 2020–2021.
Barbate et al. 31

Figure 12. India’s Inflation Rate Forecast up to 2024–2025

Source: Compiled by authors.

Interest Rate assumed. For a moderate recovery, an average decline rate

of 0.5% per year can be assumed. For a weak recovery, an
Estimates for 2020–2021 average decline rate of 1% per year can be assumed. Likely
In its meeting held on 27 March 2020, RBI (2020) took situation under these three scenarios of recovery are shown
some bold steps and announced the following rate cuts: in Figure 13.
If the recovery is strong, in the year 2024–2025, the
• Reverse repo rate: Cut by 90 basis points taking it base lending interest rate might move up to 8.65% from the
down to 4% projected rate of 6.65% in 2020–2021. If the recovery is
• Repo rate: Cut by 75 basis points taking it down to moderate, the base lending interest rate might move down
4.40% to 4.65% from the projected rate of 6.65% in 2020–2021. If
• Marginal standing facility rate: Cut by 75 basis the recovery is weak, in the year 2024–2025, the base
points taking it down to 4.65% lending interest rate might move down to 2.65% from the
projected rate of 6.65% in 2020–2021.
Additionally, the RBI also announced less popular
measures to encourage bank lending. The cash reserve
ratio has been cut down to 3.00% from 4.00%. Further RBI Industry Output
also has mandated moratoriums of 3 months on loan Estimates for 2020–2021
repayments, easing pressure on the borrowers. There is not
The year 2019–2020 till February 2020 was quite normal,
much possibility that the interest rate will differ significantly
as can be seen from Figure 14.
from the current levels (as announced on 27 March 2020).
March, April and May 2020 are slated to take big hits
They can go down further by another 100–200 basis points
amid the lockdowns and the extended lockdowns. This
up to 31 March 2021 to ensure that adequate funding is
position is likely to continue until June 2020. But thereafter
available in the market. The base lending rate of SBI as on
the government and the industry will have to take some
10 March 2020 was revised to 8.15%. This by the end of
positive steps towards recovery. Yet in any case the industry
the year 2020–2021 is expected to come down by another
100–200 basis points, given the fact that pushing-up output will take some kind of overall beating in the year
lending will be a priority. Thus, as of 31 March 2021 the 2020–2021. A decision-tree model can be adopted
base lending rate (SBI) can be projected at 6.65% considering three pessimistic situations: moderate, average
(8.15–1.50%). and severe. Probability estimates for these three scenarios
at this point in time (April 2020) can be taken as 0.33 each.
Estimates for 2024–2025 The cuts in the industrial output rates for the three scenarios
Like other parameters, interest rates in the long run too will can be taken as −2%, −4% and −6%, respectively, for
be determined by the mode of recovery. Three such moderate, average and severe pessimistic situations.
scenarios with equal probabilities can be considered as Taking into account these scenarios, their probabilities and
strong, moderate and weak recovery. For a strong recovery, the expected outcome, a decision-tree structure emerges, as
an average incremental rate of 0.5% per year can be shown in Figure 15.
32 Vision 25(1)

Figure 13. India’s Base Lending Rate Forecast up to 2024–2025

Source: Compiled by authors.

Figure 14. India’s Industrial Production Index 2019–2020

Source: CEIC Data (2020).

Figure 15. Decision Tree for IIP Rate Projection for 2020–2021
Source: Compiled by authors.
Barbate et al. 33

Aggregating the three EVs, −0.66%, −1.32% and Findings and Discussion
−1.98%, the expected cut in the industrial output rate
forecast for 2020–2021 is −3.96%. The March 2020 rate The economic impact assessment has been summarized in
Table 4.
can be assumed as 0%. Thus, there is all likelihood that the
Big impact is likely on the GDP growth rate at least for
industrial output for 2020–2021 might reduce to −3.96%.
the year 2020–2021. Same is the finding in case of
Estimates for 2024–2025 unemployment. Inflation too is likely to rise in the short
An important factor influencing the industrial output term at least. Base lending rate is expected to come down
projections for the next 5 years is the likely recovery rate. further as the government would like the banks to create
Three such scenarios with equal probabilities can be more credit in the market. The industrial output is slated to
considered as strong, moderate and weak recovery. For a take a strong beating at least in the year 2020–2021.
strong recovery, a positive average growth rate of 2% per The economic impact in the long run will depend on the
year can be assumed. For a moderate, recovery a positive recovery mode. Three such modes, namely, strong, moder-
average growth rate of 1% per year can be assumed. For a ate and weak, show a wide range of possibilities.
weak recovery, a positive average growth rate of 0.50% per A major impact of COVID-19 is expected on the Indian
year can be assumed. Likely situation under these three economy for fiscal 2020–2021. At the point of writing this
scenarios of recovery are shown in Figure 16. article, that is, on 14 April 2020, the lockdown has been
If the recovery is strong, in the year 2024–2025, the extended to 3 May 2020 and in all probabilities is likely to
growth rate might reach up to 4.04%. If the recovery is go up to 30 June 2020. So the first quarter will be
moderate, in the year 2024–2025, the growth rate might completely lost. Amid a lot of uncertainty a positive view
reach up to 0.04%. If the recovery is weak, in the year can be taken that at least from the second quarter of 2020–
2024–2025, the growth rate might reach up to −1.96%. 2021 a recovery will be initiated. The recovery will happen

Figure 16. India’s IIP Rate Forecast up to 2024–2025

Source: Compiled by authors.

Table 4. Summary of Key Indian Economic Indicators Projections

Current Projection Projection for 2024–25 on the Basis of 3

(Mar/Apr 2020) for Possible Recoveries
Sr. No. Economic Indicator Position 2020–21 Strong Moderate Weak
1 GDP growth 5% −0.55% 7.45% 3.45% 1.45%
2 Unemployment 8.76% 20.13% 12.13% 16.13% 18.13%
3 Inflation 2.99% 6% 8% 10% 14%
4 Base lending rate 8.15% 6.65% 8.65% 4.65% 2.65%
5 Industrial production index 0% −3.96% 4.04% 0.04% −1.96%
Source: Compiled by authors.
34 Vision 25(1)

in phases and gradually. The recovery will be severely ORCID iD

constrained by the concern of controlling the spread of Shirish S. Raibagkar https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8017-
COVID-19. Effectively it can be assumed that 2020–2021 7740
will be actually of 6 months only. Thus, for 2020–2021
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in taking on the recovery process. indias-economic-growth-to-slow-down-to-4-pc-in-fy21-
on-coronavirus-pandemic/articleshow/74960057.cms?utm_
Declaration of Conflicting Interests source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_
campaign=cppst
The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect
PTI. (2020a). Fitch slashes India growth forecast to 30-year low
to the research, authorship and/or publication of this article.
of 2% for FY21. The Economic Times. https://economictimes.
indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/fitch-slashes-
Funding india-growth-forecast-to-30-year-low-of-2-for-fy21/article
The authors received no financial support for the research, show/74967144.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_
authorship and/or publication of this article. medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Barbate et al. 35

PTI. (2020b). CRISIL cuts India’s FY21 growth forecast to 3.5% com/news/industry/ncaer-pegs-fy20-gdp-growth-at-4-9/
amid coronavirus outbreak. Business Standard. https://www. 74248281
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india-s-fy21-growth-forecast-to-3-5-amid-coronavirus-out- ployed in US. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/
break-120032601766_1.html unemployment-rate
PTI. (2020c, 9 April). India’s GDP projected at 4.8%, COVID-19 to Van Asselt, M., Van’t Klooster, S. A., Van Notten Philip, F. W.,
have adverse impact globally: UN report. India Today. https:// & Smits, L. A. (2012). Foresight in action: Developing pol-
www.indiatoday.in/business/story/india-s-gdp-projected- icy-oriented scenarios. Routledge.
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1665035-2020-04-09
RBI. (2020). Press release of meeting dated 27th March 2020. About the Authors
rbidocs.rbi.org.in
Sinha, S. K. (2020). FY21 GDP growth downwardly Revised Vikas Barbate ([email protected]) is working
to 3.6. India Ratings and Research. https://www. as an Associate Professor at the ASM’s Institute of
indiaratings.co.in/PressRelease?pressReleaseID=40528&titl Professional Studies, Pimpri, Pune. He has work experience
e=FY21-GDP-Growth-Downwardly-Revised-to-3.6%25- of 26 years and has published around 20 publications in
The Economic Times. (2020a, 2 April). Global economy could journals of national and international repute. Dr Vikas
shrink by almost 1% in 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic: has done his Doctorate in addition to MMS, MCom and
United Nations. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/ PGDM.
international/business/global-economy-could-shrink-by-
almost-1-in-2020-due-to-covid-19-pandemic-united-nations/ Rajesh N. Gade ([email protected]) is working as
articleshow/74943235.cms?from=mdr
an Assistant Professor, Lotus Business School, Pune. He is
The Economic Times. (2020b, 9 April). Goldman Sachs revised
a research scholar with the Savitribai Phule Pune University.
global growth forecast for 2020 to −2% and that of US to
−6%: Prachi Mishra. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/
markets/expert-view/goldman-sachs-revised-global-growth-
Shirish S. Raibagkar ([email protected]) is a Fellow
forecast-for-2020-to-2-and-that-of-us-to-6-prachi-mishra/ member of Institute of Cost and Management Accountants
articleshow/75065449.cms; https://www.focus-economics. of India. He has done his Doctorate and has passed the
com/country-indicator/india/interest-rate Chartered Accountancy exam. He has published more than
The Economic Times. (2020c, 21 February). NCAER pegs FY20 25 research articles in journals of national and international
GDP growth at 4.9%. https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes. repute.