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Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment in the Short Run: A Case of the
Indian Economy

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DOI: 10.5296/ifb.v3i1.9378

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 International Finance and Banking
ISSN 2374-2089
2016, Vol. 3, No. 1

Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment in the

Short Run: A Case of the Indian Economy
Dolly Singh
Department of Economics, Babasaheb Bhimarao Ambedkar University
Lucknow (Uttar Pradesh), India
E-mail: [email protected]

Nmp Verma
Department of Economics, Babasaheb Bhimarao Ambedkar University
Lucknow (Uttar Pradesh), India
E-mail: [email protected]

Received: March 24, 2016 Accepted: April 11, 2016 Published: April 27, 2016
doi:10.5296/ifb.v3i1.9378 URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ifb.v3i1.9378

Abstract
Unemployment and inflation are issues that are central to economic life of every developing
country. This paper estimates the short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment for
the Indian economy over the period 2009-2015, in order to know whether there is a tradeoff
between inflation and unemployment. In short run there is inverse relationship of inflation
with the unemployment, increase in inflation leads to decrease in unemployment and vice
versa. This variable is subjected to Bi-variants regression analysis, with unemployment as its
dependent variable in the first model, inflation in the second model and real GDP in the third
model. The research outcomes proved the effective orientation of unemployment for the
inflation and real GDP at statistically non-significance level. The findings proved the
negative effect of unemployment for inflation and positive effect on real GDP. The
unemployment is a continuously occurring phenomenon in all economies of developing
countries where it is affecting highly the level of employment; price level, living standard of
people, and real GDP. The findings proved the influential relationship between
unemployment and inflation conditions, Unemployment and Real GDP conditions, but in our
economic condition it is proved as non-significant. Consequently, the major policy

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implication of these results is that concerted efforts should be made by policy makers towards
restructuring the economy, managing price instability and level of employment.
Keywords: Unemployment, Inflation, Real GDP, Short run Philips curve, Bi-variate
regression model

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1. Introduction
Inflation and unemployment economic problems both impact the common man life. High
Productivity (Real GDP), price stability and low unemployment are the most desirable
macroeconomic goals. In this regard in 1960, the concept of Phillips curve emerged, by A.W.
Phillips who is the pioneer of the Phillips curve in UK. This curve suggests negative
relationship between the rate of inflation and unemployment. There are two studies which
provided explanations of the possible Phillips curve, relationship between the two variables
in the short-run and the long run as; first one is, in short run, there is tradeoff between
inflation and unemployment. Second, in the long run there is no significant tradeoff between
inflation and unemployment. Therefore economists are in best interest to identify their
relationship; there is a short run tradeoff between the rate of inflation and unemployment,
(McConnell, 16th Ed). In this regard it has been also seen in many studies that there is short
run tradeoff between Inflation and unemployment in different countries in different time
periods.
The term inflation refers to increase in overall price level of goods and services in the
economy which leads to decrease in the purchasing power of household. Because whenever
prices increases, the value of money will depreciate and ultimately the real income of
household will decrease.
The unemployment is that condition in the economy when supply of labor exceeds the
demand of labor in the labor market. Similarly, a person who is willing to do the job but due
to shortage of the jobs he or she could not find the job in the economy is known as
unemployment.
The inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment rate as represented by Phillips
curve is only a short-term relationship i.e., unstable, because it prevails for a limited period of
time and there are factors which lead Phillips curve to another situation, and the major factor
that leads to instability is unexpected inflation where the real wage for workers is declining,
which motivates them to demand higher nominal wage, as a result the business reduces its
demand for labor, which increases unemployment. So, unexpected inflation is accompanied
by an increase in the unemployment rate. The macroeconomic goals which the government
strives to achieve are the maintenance of stable domestic price level and full-employment.
Macroeconomic performance is judged by three broad measures—unemployment rate,
inflation rate, and the growth rate of output (Ugwuanyi, 2004). The long-run relationship
between changes in the rates of GDP growth and unemployment is the rate of growth in
potential output. Potential output is an unobservable measure of the capacity of the economy
to produce goods and services when available resources, such as labor and capital, are fully
utilized. The rate of growth of potential output is a function of the rate of growth in potential
productivity and the labor supply when the economy is at full employment.
When unemployment rate is high, as it is now, then actual GDP falls short of potential GDP.
This is referred to as the output gap. In the absence of productivity growth, as long as each
new addition to the labor force is employed, growth in output will be equal to growth in the
labor supply. If the rate of GDP growth falls below the rate of labor force growth, there will
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not be enough new jobs created to accommodate all new job seekers. Unemployment and
inflation are issues that are central to both the social and economic life of every country. The
existing literature refers to unemployment and inflation as constituting a vicious circle that
explains the endemic nature of poverty in developing countries. And it has been argued that
continuous improvement in productivity—which brings about the adequate supply of goods
and services—is the surest way of breaking the vicious circle.
Problem of inflation in Indian economy is that, Inflation erodes the value of money that
constrains people and firm to minimize their holding of cash. When price rises, sellers must
use resources to change nominal prices. Then society‘s output of goods and services is
reduced by devoting resources to these activities.
Problem of unemployment in India is that, Loss of output is the major problem of
unemployment because the unemployed labor force does not add to the productivity. And
they do not pay taxes, even tax—payers of the society also bear some of the output cost of the
unemployed.
The main Objectives of this paper is focus on: Firstly: To determine the role of inflation,
unemployment and Real GDP in Indian economy, secondly: To examine, is there any tradeoff
exists between inflation and unemployment in Indian economy during study period and
thirdly: To study the impact of Real GDP on unemployment in Indian Economy.
2. Theoretical Framework and Literature Review
2.1 Theoretical Framework
Phillips Curve was named after the British economist A.W. Phillips, who first examined the
relationship between the rate of unemployment and the rate of money wage changes. His
analysis was based on data for the United Kingdom from 1861-1957. Phillips derived an
empirical result that there was an inverse relationship between the rate of unemployment and
the rate of increase in money wages. Phillips found a consistent inverse relationship: when
unemployment was high, wages increased slowly; when unemployment was low, wages rose
rapidly. The Phillips curve represents the average relationship between unemployment and
wage behavior over the business cycle. It illustrates the rate of wage inflation that would
result if a particular level of unemployment persisted for some time. After Phillips’ work,
economists studied the Phillips curve; some validated it while others refuted it. Thus,
Friedman (1977) contended that there is no trade-off between inflation and unemployment in
the long run, representing a monetarist view of Phillips curve. He argued that, any attempt to
hold the unemployment rate at an artificially low level would cause inflation to accelerate
indefinitely. He argued that, there is a natural rate of unemployment where the real wage rate
is in long run equilibrium for employment rate to be below the natural rate, employers and
potential employees must be willing to be hired.
2.2 Literature Review
Karanassou & Sala (2010) argued there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment in
long run because of money and productivity growth which leads to decrease in

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unemployment, while supply shock like oil prices which leads to increase in unemployment.
In the case of 1970, monetary expansion led to increase in inflation and reduced the
unemployment which was very negligible, and slowdown in productivity also led to increase
in inflation and unemployment. He argued that increase in productivity growth causes
decrease in inflation and also fall in unemployment. Hussein Ali Al-Zeaud (2011) argued that
there is no tradeoff between inflation and unemployment in Jordan economy between 1984
and 2011 because foreign labor were not involved in the unemployment rate calculation. He
used Granger-Causality test to check relationship between variables and the direction of
causation and techniques depends on testing stationary, integration, co-integration as
per-requisites. Liu & Jansen (2010) had argued that, the basic concept of traditional Phillips
curve model holds that there is a tradeoff between inflation and real activity (unemployment),
therefore, it is still used to forecast inflation. Berger (2010), they find that increase in cyclical
unemployment will lead to decrease in output which ultimately causes to decrease in inflation.
Afzal & Awais (2012) argued that there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment in
short run by using latest version of empirical study of Phillips curve for Pakistan. He found
that reduced form of Phillips curve structure reveals that the expected inflation is significant
for all periods. He said that high economic growth, price stability and low unemployment are
the most enviable macroeconomic goals. Inflation is regarded as a problem when the inflation
rate is too high and rising. Unemployment results from lack of employment opportunities and
is a permanent feature of the economy. Das & Martin (2013) used Phillips curve to estimate
the output gaps for Indian Data. And modified Hodrick-Prescott filter with a non constant
smoothing parameter. He allows the smoothing parameter over time and its value reflects the
nature and magnitude of supply and demand shock in India. Quin & Wang (2013) he argued
that there is a visual relationship between the inflation and unemployment. He used statistical
and consistent data for economic condition of china. He also used correlation of co-efficient
and causality between inflation rate and unemployment rate for the period of 1978 to 2011.
He proved empirical Phillips curve is ineffective to find casual relationship between the
inflation rate and unemployment rate in China. Franz (2010) concluded that it is very hard to
assess the NAIRU, if the joint relationship of inflation, wage increases and unemployment
get worse because NAIRU is the point where inflation is constant at consistent rate of
unemployment. Apel & Jansson (1999) argued that Phillips curve equation also helps in
precision of estimating the potential output and the NAIRU. Sagar Katria et al. (2011) Sukkur
Institute of Business Administration, and Sukkur aimed to identify the relationship between
inflation and unemployment in SAARC countries from the perspective of Phillips curve.
Unbalanced annual panel data of 8 SAARC members (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan,
India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) and 6 expected member of SAARC
(Republic of China, Russia, Indonesia, Iran, Myanmar and South Africa) had been used for
the period 1980-2010. This paper found significant results; there is a negative relationship
between inflation and unemployment rate in the SAARC Countries. Concept of Phillips curve
holds true. Still on the relationship between unemployment and inflation, Studies by Aminu
& Anono (2012) using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller technique, revealed that there is no
causation between unemployment and inflation and that a long-term relationship exist
between the two. Also, the study revealed a negative relationship between unemployment and

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inflation and a minimal applicability of various theories of unemployment and inflation in

India
3. Methodology and Data Source
The secondary data are used for this study period from 2009-2015. Therefore, data were
sourced from Central Bank of India (CBI) Statistical bulletin which includes; data on real
gross domestic production (RGDP), consumer price index proxy for inflation (INF) and
Ministry of labor & employment for unemployment rate (UNEMP). The ordinary least square
method and Bi-variate regression model of econometric approach was used in estimation.
3.1 Model Specification
To study empirically on the relationship between unemployment and inflation in Indian
economy, a model will be employed. In the first model, inflation, Real GDP will be regressed
on unemployment; in order to ascertain the impact of the explanatory variables on the
explained variable. In the second model, unemployment, Real GDP will be regressed on
Inflation and in the third model, inflation and unemployment will be regressed on Real GDP.
The model of the form will be formulated which is adopted by Bello Malam Sa’idu1 (2015)
as stated below.
From the foregoing analysis, three models can be written in its functional form as follows:
UNEMP = f (INF, RGDP)
INF = f (UNEMP, RGDP)
RGDP = f (UNEMP, INF)
Where, UNEMP = unemployment Rate, INF = Inflation Rate, Real GDP = Real Gross
Domestic Product and f = functional relationship
Expanding the model into a linear mathematical relationship, we have,
UNEMP = β0 + β1 RGDP+ β2 INF ………………………………eq 1
INF = β0 + β1 UNEMP + β2 RGDP ………………………………..eq 2
RGDP = β0 + β1 UNEMP + β2 INF………………………………...eq 3
Econometrics model, by including stochastic term (et), thus our model becomes;
UNEMP = β1 + β1 RGDP + β2 INF+ et …………………………….eq 4
INF = β0 + β1 UNEMP + β2 RGDP+ et ……………………………eq 5
RGDP = β0 + β1 UNEMP + β2 INF + et ……………………………eq- 6
Where, β0 is intercept depicting unemployment when the explanatory variables are equal to
zero in first model, inflation in the second model when the explanatory variables are equal to
zero and Real GDP in the third model when the explanatory variables are equal to zero. β0
and β1 are the co-efficient or parameters attached to the explanatory variables. The inclusion

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of the stochastic or error term (et) in the above model is to capture the impact of other
variables that are not included in the models.
3.1.1 Inflation Rate

Table 1. Inflation rate of India in percentage during 2009-2015

Years Inflation Rate (%)
2009-2010 10.83
2010-2011 12.11
2011-2012 8.94
2012-2013 7.35
2013-2014 5.98
2014-2015 6.37
Source: RBI & Worldwide Inflation

Trend of Inflation Rate (%) in India

15
12.11
10.83
10 8.94
7.35
5.98 6.37
5

0
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Figure 1. Inflation rate (%) in India

The figure 1 shows average inflation rate (%) in India from the year 2009-2015. In year
2010-2011 inflation rate is increased by 1.28%, but decreased by 3.17 % in 2011-2012. It was
decreased continuously and reached to 6.37% in 2014-2015. From the above data we can
conclude that situation of inflation in India sometime increased or decreased i.e., fluctuated
not linearly changed.

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3.1.2 Unemployment Rate (%) in India during (2009-2015)

Table 2. Average unemployment rate of India in percentage during 2009-2015

Years Unemployment Rate (%)
2009-2010 10.1
2010-2011 10.8
2011-2012 9.8
2012-2013 8.5
2013-2014 8.8
2014-2015 7.3
Source: Ministry of labor & employment, government of India

Unemployment Rate (%) in India

15
10.8
10 10.1 9.8
8.8
8.5
7.3
5

0
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Figure 2. Trends of unemployment rate (%) in India

From the figure 2, it has seen that unemployment rate is increased only by 0.7 % in
2010-2011 but decreased by 1% in year 2011-2012. It decreased continuously reached to 7.3
in year 2014-2015. Unemployment rate sometime increased and decreased as shown in the
above graph, so it seen that, there is fluctuation in unemployment rate in Indian economy.
Unemployment Rate in India decreased by 4.90 percent in 2013 from 5.20 percent in 2012.
Unemployment Rate in India averaged 7.32 percent from 1983 until 2013, reached an
all-time high of 9.40 percent in 2009 and recorded lowest of 4.90 percent in 2013.
3.1.3 Short-Run Tradeoff between Inflation-Unemployment in India During (2009-2015)

Table 3. Percentage wise inflation and unemployment rate in India

Years Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%)
2009-10 10.83 10.1
2010-11 12.11 10.8
2011-12 8.94 9.8
2012-13 7.35 8.5
2013-14 5.98 8.8
2014-15 6.37 7.3
Source: Ministry of labor & employment, government of India

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Trend between Inflation and Unemployment in India

15
10.83 12.11
9.8
10 10.1 10.8 8.5
8.8 7.3
8.94 7.35
5.98 6.37
5
0
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Inflation Unemployment

Figure 3. Trend of inflation and unemployment rate in India

From the figure 3, it has seen that whether Phillips curve situation exist in our Indian
economy during study period .Phillips curve means inverse relationship between inflation and
unemployment in the short run period. The following table showing the fluctuation situation
of inflation—unemployment over preceding year.

Table 4. Relationship between inflation—unemployment in India

Variation over preceding year Inflation rate (%) Unemployment rate (%)
2010-11 over 2009-10 1.28 0.7
2011-12 over 2010-11 -3.17 -1
2012-13 over 2011-12 -1.59 -1.3
2013-14 over 2012-13 -1.37 0.3
2014-15 over 2013-14 0.39 -1.5
Source: Compiled by Author.

variation of Inflation -Unemployment rate(%) in India

2
1.5
1.28
1
0.7
0.5 0.39
0.3
0
‐0.5 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 ‐1.3 2012‐13 2013‐14
‐1 ‐1
‐1.5 ‐1.37 ‐1.5
‐1.59
‐2
‐2.5
‐3
‐3.17
‐3.5

inflation unemployment

Figure 5. Relationship between unemployment and inflation in India according to Phillips

curve concept
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d Banking
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2
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Above figure 5 shhows the varriation of Innflation and d unemploym ment rate inn India durin
ng study
period 2009-2015.
2 Variation inn the year 20010-2011 sh hows that peercentage of both parammeters is
increaseed, whereass in year 20111-2012 inflflation rate was
w decreaseed and unem mployment rate
r also
decreassed as we seee in the figgure. Similaarly, in the year
y 2012-22013 both aare decreaseed but in
2013-20014 it has seeen that infl
flation decreeased while unemploym ment increassed in a minnor way.
Finally in 2014-20015 inflationn increased sparsely an nd unemplooyment decrreased. From m above
data it observed
o thhat in India Phillips
P currve concept does not exxist. Thus, iit can be co
oncluded
that theere was no relationshiip between inflation and a unemplooyment in India durin ng study
period. The short run
r tradeoff ff does not exist
e between inflationn and unempmployment in n Indian
Econom my. The earrlier studies (Nwaobi, 2009;2 Kotiaa, 2013; Das & Martiin, 2013; Sa’idu &
Muham mmad, 20155) also conccluded that tradeoff do oes not exisst in develooping countries like
India.
3.1.4 Reeal GDP (%
%) in India During
D (20009-2015)

Table 5. Average reeal GDP datta in percenntage of India

Years R GDP (%))
Real
2009-2010 7.4
2010-2011 9.4
2011-2012 7.2
2012-2013 6.5
2013-2014 3.2
2014-2015 6.3
Source: Monetary
M poliicy report (20115), Reserve Bank
B of India..

Trend of Real
R GDP (%
%) in Indiaa
10 9.4
8 7.4
4 7.2
6 6.5 6.3
4
3.22
2
0
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-144 20144-15

F
Figure 6. Treends of reall GDP (%) in
i India in different
d yeaar

The aboove figure 6 shows thee trend of Real

R GDP of o India durring study pperiod (20099-2015).
During 2010-2011 it increasedd by 2.8% and a decreassed by 2.2 % in 2013-22014. Furtheer, it has
been deecreased by 0.7% in 20012-2013, again
a it decrreased by 3.3 % in 20113-2014 andd finally
it has inncreased byy 3.1% in yeear 2014-20015 i.e., 6.33% Real GD DP growth iin India. Reeal GDP
growth should be higher
h in ouur Indian economy to make balannce econom mically. Lowwer Real
GDP is shows in developing
d c
countries likke Indian ecconomy.
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3.1.5 Relationship between Unemployment and Real GDP

Table 6. Average percentage of unemployment and real GDP in India during (2009-2015)
Year Unemployment Rate (%) Real GDP (%)
2009-2010 10.1 7.4
2010-2011 10.8 9.4
2011-2012 9.8 7.2
2012-2013 8.5 6.5
2013-2014 8.8 3.2
2014-2015 7.3 6.3
Source: Ministry of labor & employment, government of India.

Trend of Unemployment and Real GDP in India

15

10 10.1 10.8 9.8

9.4 8.5 8.8 7.3
7.4 7.2
5 6.5 6.3
3.2
0
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Unemployment Real GDP

Figure 7. Trends of real GDP vs. unemployment rate in India

The above figure 7 shows the relationship between Unemployment and Real GDP in India
during study period. In short run there was no impact of Real GDP on Unemployment in
developing countries like India. But it has seen from the Okun’S law theorem, if there is 3%
change in Real GDP then it should be 1% fall in unemployment. To see whether this situation
happens in Indian economy during study period. The following is the table of variation in
different year:

Table 7. Relationship between real GDP and unemployment according to Okun’s law
Variation over preceding year Real GDP Growth rate (%) Unemployment rate (%)
2010-11 over 2009-10 +2 +0.3
2011-12 over 2010-11 -2 -1.0
2012-13 over 2011-12 -1 -1
2013-14 over 2012-13 -3.2 -0.3
2014-15 over 2013-14 + 3.1 -1.5
Source: Compiled by author

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Variation of Real GDP - unemployment rate( %) in India

4

3 3.1

2 2

0.3
0
‐0.3
2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14
‐1 ‐1 ‐1
‐1.5
‐2 ‐2

‐3
‐3.2

‐4

Real GDP Unemloyment

Figure 8. Variation between real GDP—unemployment in India

From the estimates shown in Table 7 in the year 2011-2012 over 2010-2011 till the year
2013-2013 over 2012-2013 the Okun’s law theorem is not applicable while, it clearly shows
in the above table that Okun’s law theorem is applicable in 2014-2015 over 2013-2014.
Because it has been seen from the changes in RGDP growth rate and unemployment rate in
above table which can only be proved according to the Okun’s law, it can be reported that
there is no relationship between Real GDP and unemployment during 2009-2010 to
2012-2013. However, it is not true in case of year 2013-2014 to 2014-2015, because Okun’s
theory is applicable and Real GDP have an impact on unemployment.
4. Data Analysis and Discussion of Result
The analysis begins with the descriptive statistics which will enable us to explore the time
series properties of the variables. The descriptive statistics employed in the study are the
summary of statistics.

Table 8. Descriptive statistics of unemployment, inflation rate and real GDP

Variables Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation
Unemployment Rate 7.3 10.8 9.32 1.73
Inflation Rate 4.74 10.26 7.07 2.1
Real GDP 11.54 18.66 14.12 2.9

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The above Table 8 explains the descriptive statistics about unemployment, inflation, and GDP.
It can be seen that minimum and maximum values of Unemployment have little gap in the six
years period. The gap indicates that India’s unemployment is consistent and less volatile. The
minimum and maximum values of inflation have a big gap in the six years period. The gap
indicates that India’s inflation is inconsistent and highly volatile. While the variation and gap
between maximum and minimum values can be found comparatively low, but still inconsistent
in some years. The value of the GDP can be found low while in some cases it is found higher.
Therefore it is also found vibrant.
4.1 Interpretation of the Three Bi-Variate Regression Model
The two equations were taken for the regression to shown the result of unemployment impact
on inflation-Real GDP and other to show the Real GDP impact on unemployment—inflation.
The equations are,
UNEMP = β0 + β1 RGDP + β2 INF + et……………..eq 4
INF = β0 + β1 UNEMP + β2 RGDP + et……………….eq 5
RGDP = β0 + β1 UNEMP + β2 INF + et………………eq (6)
The values of unemployment has been shown -17.091477 i.e., a negative impact on the RGDP
and INF in Indian economy. The value of Inflation shows -3112.57375 i.e., negative impact on
the UNEMP and RGDP in Indian economy. The value of Real GDP shows 208.9422 i.e., also
negative impact on the UNEMP and INF in Indian economy but no significant values. The
correlation between Inflation and unemployment is negative, thus insignificant. There is no
relationship between inflation and unemployment in developing country like India. The
correlation between real GDP growth and unemployment is very important for policy makers
in order to obtain a sustainable rise in living standards. If GDP growth rate is below its natural
rate it is indicated to promote employment because this rise in total income will not generate
inflationary pressures. In contrast, if the GDP growth is above its natural level, policy makers
will decide not to intensively promote the creation of new jobs in order to obtain a sustainable
growth rate which will not generate inflation.
To check whether hypothesis of this work is rejected or accepted. The hypothesis is, Null
hypothesis (H0): There is insignificant relationship between inflation and unemployment. Yes,
this (H0) true there is insignificant relationship shown between inflation and unemployment,
there is negative relation shown between this two variable from the values -17091477. Null
hypothesis (H0): Real Gross domestic product (GDP) has no significant impact on
unemployment in India. This (H0), rejected i.e., true RGDP has insignificant impact on
unemployment in Indian Economy.

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Table 9. Regression analysis between inflation, unemployment and real GDP

Regression (model 1) fit between UNEMP = INF, Real GDP (2009-2015)
R2 (r- Square) Adjusted f-test Significant level
R-squares
0.763772 0.606287 4.0635 0.1975
Regression (model 2) fit between INF = UNEMP ,RGDP (2009-2015)
R2 (r-Square) Adjusted f- test Significant level
R-Squares
0.962436 0.937394 38.43223 0.00728
Regression (model 3 )fit between Real GDP= UNEMP,INF (2009-2015)
R2 (r-square) Adjusted f-test Significant level
R-squares
0.951864 0.919773 29.66177 0.010561

The above Table 9 explains correlation between unemployment rate and Inflation rate. The
findings are showing that only 0.7 percent variability has been recorded in the dependent
variable GDP due to inflation. The value of F-test is found as below the standard value of rule
of thumb 4.06 and significance level is just 0.1975. All these findings are disclosing that
model is not satisfactory. On other part of the Table 9 explains the model fitness between
inflation and unemployment rate. Here it is found that 0.96 percent variability in
unemployment rate is due the inflation during the 2009-2015. The research findings provides
information about F-test 38.43 and which is above the standard 4.00 i.e., the level of
significance is just above the higher level of the significance, therefore, it can be concluded
that the model is satisfactory between inflation rate and unemployment rate and Real GDP.
The last part explains the model fitness between Real GDP and Unemployment rate. Here it
is found that 0.95 percent variability in unemployment rate is due to the inflation during the
2009-2015. The research findings provides information about f-test 29.66 and which is above
the standard 4.00 i.e., the level of significance is just above the higher level of the
insignificance.

Table 10. Bi -Variate regression result of three equation

Regression result between Unemployment = Inflation, Real GDP
Variables Co-efficient Std. Error t-test t-prob. Significant
level
Constant 3.323638 1.959568 1.696107 0.188435 0.1975
RGDP 0.516477 0.237332 2.176178 0.117771
INF -0.18398 0.327438 -0.56187 0.613446
Regression result between Inflation= Unemployment, RGDP
Variables Co-efficient Std. Error t-test t- prob. Significant
level
Constant -6.26727 2.070694 -302665 0.056461 0.00728
UNEMP 1.162728 0.272325 4.269637 0.023581
RGDP 0.62212 0.170106 3.657237 0.035313
Regression result Real GDP= Unemployment, INF
Variables Co-efficient Std. error t-test t-prob. Significant
level
Constant 8.557254 2.726748 3.138264 0.051733 0.010561
UNEMP -1.72805 0.49934 -3.46066 0.040621
INF 1.672243 0.275061 6.079532 0.008935
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The above Table 10 shows the statistical results of regression tests. The regression results
between the two variables Unemployment and inflation shows a negative unit change from
inflation. The findings are proving the phenomenon in such way that one unit change in
inflation brings negative 0.018 unit change in unemployment. But the value of t-test is found
below the tabulated or standard value of the rule of thumb. Finally for the significance level,
it can also be observed to be highly above the required level that is 0.19, therefore, the
findings are providing statistical grounds for the rejection of proposed hypothesis H1:
unemployment non-significantly influences Inflation rate of the Indian economy. On the
Second Model, the regression between inflation and unemployment is found to show a
positive unit change from Unemployment, the findings are proving the phenomenon in such
way that one unit change in inflation brings positive 1.162 unit change in unemployment. But
the value of t-test is still below the tabulated or standard value of the rule of thumb. Finally
for the significance level is also highly above the required level that is 0.007, therefore, the
findings are providing statistical grounds for the rejection of proposed hypothesis H2:
Inflation insignificantly influences unemployment rate of the Indian economy .In the third
model, the Regression between Real GDP and Unemployment is found to be negative unit
change from the unemployment and positive from the Inflation. The findings are proving the
phenomenon in such way that one unit change in Unemployment brings negative 1.72 unit
change in unemployment. But the value of t-test is still below the tabulated or standard value
of the rule of thumb. Finally the significance level is also high above the required level that is
0.01, therefore, the findings are providing statistical grounds for the rejection of proposed
hypothesis H3: Real GDP has no significantly impact on Indian Economy.
For the first model, The R-square of 0.76 illustrates that 76% variation in unemployment is
explained by Real GDP and Inflation in first model. The R-square of 0.76 illustrates that 76%
variation in Unemployment is explained by Inflation and Real GDP in the first model. Also,
the adjusted R-square with a value of 0.60 which shows 60% variation in dependent variable
is explained by independent variable when the degree of freedom is taken care off. The
F-statistics values for unemployment and Inflation is greater than 2 which indicate the
rejection of the hypothesis that there is causation between inflation and unemployment. This
confirms that unemployment substantially affect inflation while Real GDP has little
substantial effect.
For Second model, the R-square of 0.96 illustrates that 96% variation in Inflation rate is
explained by Unemployment and Real GDP in the third model. Also, the adjusted R-square
with a value of 0.93 which shows 93% variation in dependent variable is explained by the
independent variable when degree of freedom is taken care off. The F-Statistics values for
Inflation and unemployment is 2 which rejects the hypothesis that there is no relationship
between inflation- unemployment. This confirms that Inflation substantially affect
unemployment while Real GDP has little substantial effect.
For Third model, The R-square of 0.95 illustrates that 95% variation in Real GDP growth is
explained by unemployment and Inflation in the second model. Also, the adjusted R-square
with a value of 0.91 which shows 91% variation in dependent variable is explained by the
independent variable when the degree of freedom is taken care off. The F-statistics values for
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Real GDP and unemployment is greater than 2 which indicate the rejection of the hypothesis
that there is causation between unemployment and Real GDP growth. This confirms that Real
GDP substantially affect unemployment while Inflation has little substantial effect.
4.2 Discussion
Experiential results as evidence proved the relationship between inflation, GDP and
unemployment as influencing each other at insignificant level. The results of the quantitative
outcome proved that Unemployment is one of vibrant and influential phenomenon in the
economy of India. And the inflation needs to be considered as one of the important factor for
the economies to consider it towards strategic economic decisions. The quantitative factors of
the economies are mainly to be considered for the strategic decision to lead the rational
approaches in the economic decisions for Indian economy.
5. Interpretation of Results
The intercept of Real GDP when all explanatory variables are held constant is 8.557254.
The coefficient of unemployment, tells us that when there is a unit increase in the
unemployment, Real GDP will decrease by 1.72805.
The coefficient of inflation shows that, with a unit increase in the explanatory variable INF,
unemployment will decrease by 1.672243.
5.1 Statistical Criteria
5.1.1 The R2 (Coefficient of Determination)
The R2 of the model for equation (UNEMP = β0 +β1 Real GDP + β2 INF+ et) is 0.60610,
showing that the explanatory variables (or independent variables) explains about 60.6 % of
the explained variable (dependent variable).
The R2 of the model for equation (INF = β0 +β1UNEMP + β2 RGDP+ et) is 0.962436
showing that the explanatory variables (or independent variables) explains about 96.2% of
the explained variable (dependent variable).
The R2 of the model for equation (RGDP = β0+β1 UNEMP + β2 INF+ et) is 0.951864,
showing that the explanatory variables (or independent variables) explains about 95.1% of
the explained variable (dependent variable).
5.1.2 The T-test (Student t)
To recall, the t–test is used to test if the independent variables are individually statistically
significant to the dependent variable. Under n-k degrees of freedom at 5% level of
significance, the critical value is ±4.920. Thus we reject H0 that the variable is statistically
significant if tcal > ttab in absolute values (that is, ignoring negative values) and accept, in
both the equation.

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Table 11. Statistical result for model (UNEMP = β0 +β1 RGDP + β2 INF+ et)
Variables t-value 5% critical Decision
Constant 1.696107 ± 4.303 Statistically non- significance
RGDP 2.176178 ±4.303 Statistically non-significance
INF -0.56187 ±4.303 Statistically non-significance

Table 12. Statistical result for model (INF = β0 +β1UNEMP + β2 RGDP+ et)
Variables t-value 5% critical Decision
Constant -3.02665 ±4.303 Statistically non- significance
UNEMP 4.269637 ±4.303 Statistically non- significance
RGDP 3.657237 ±4.303 Statistically non- significance

Table 13. Statistical result for model (RGDP = β0 +β2 UNEMP+ β2 INF+ et)
Variables t-value 5% critical Decision
Constant 3.138264 ±4.303 Statistically non-significance
UNEMP -3.46066 ±4.303 Statistically non-significance
INF 6.079532 ±4.03 Statistically significance

5.2 Hypothesis Testing

Null hypothesis (Ho): There is no short run tradeoff relationship between inflation and
unemployment in India. Null hypothesis (Ho): There is insignificant relationship between
inflation and unemployment. Null hypothesis (Ho): Real Gross domestic product (GDP) has
no significant impact on unemployment in India.
From the regression result, the coefficient of inflation is negative in first model, this is
showing that short run tradeoff relationship does not exists between inflation and
unemployment. The co-efficient of unemployment is positive in second model. This is
showing that inflation has positive effect on unemployment. It has further seen from the
analysis that gross domestic product was found to be statistically non-significant in the third
model. From the third model, co-efficient of inflation is positive and Statistical significance
with Real GDP taken as a dependent variable. This analysis shows non- significant impact of
unemployment variable on Real GDP.
 It has been seen in the study that prices of commodity increases indicates higher rate of
inflation in the country while reverse is true for deflation.
 The available data of Inflation and unemployment it has been seen in the study that when
inflation increases in the year the unemployment rate also increases in different ratio or
independent ratio.
 The data of inflation and employment shows inverse relation with each other, this
indicates that when inflation increases the unemployment decreases.

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 From the data of Real GDP and inflation having positive relation with each other,
whenever the inflation take place, the GDP of the particular year will increase.
 In Case of unemployment and GDP both having inverse relation with each other, this
indicates that if GDP of a country will increase the unemployment will decrease, and reverse
is true in case of decrease in GDP.
Therefore, we conclude that there is no trade-off relationship between unemployment and
inflation in India, there is insignificant relationship between inflation-unemployment in India
and Gross domestic product shows insignificant impact on unemployment in India.
5.3 F-TEST
This shows the overall performance of the regression model. The decision rule as stated
previously is to reject H0 that the model is well specified and adequate for forecasting and
policy analysis if Fcal > F0.05 and accept it if otherwise.

Table 14.
F-statistics For Model (UNEMP = β0 +β1 RGDP + β2 INF+ et)
Fcal Ftab at 0.05 significant level Decision
4.0635 0.1975 H0 reject and H1 accept
F- statistics For model (INF = β0 +β1 UNEMP + β2 RGDP + et)
Fcal Ftab at 0.05 significant level Decision
38.43223 0.00728 H0 reject and H1 accept
F– statistics For model (RGDP = β0 +β1 UNEMP+ β3 INF+ et)
Fcal Ftab at 0.05 significant level Decision
29.6617 0.010561 H0 reject and H1 accept

From above Table 14 the result shows that the first model is well specified and considered as
being good and adequate for forecasting and policy analysis. It further states that the overall
regression is insignificant and statistically different from zero.
Findings obtained are similar to Sa’idu1 & Muhammad (2015), work on
unemployment—inflation and economic growth, Umair & Ullah (2013) work on real GDP,
inflation and unemployment, Kotia (2013) work on Phillip’s curve for India, Subhan (2010)
unemployment—inflation and economic growth used same interpretation to conclude the
result for other countries. Although the study of relationship between
inflation—unemployment of Indian country shows same findings.
6. Conclusion and Policy Implications
The findings revealed that the coefficient of Unemployment is positive and statistically
significant, while Inflation is negative but unemployment has no significant effect on real
GDP. Thus, unemployment substantially affects Inflation, while unemployment has little
substantial effect on Real GDP.

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Unemployment and inflation poses a serious problem in any economy. Studies carried out by
most economists revealed that in the quest to reduce unemployment, rising inflation may be
risked. A. W. Phillips research work (1958) attested to this fact of tradeoff relationship.
However, some other economists led by Milton Friedman challenged the trade-off
relationship thesis, saying that it exists only in the short-run, that in the long run, the Phillips
curve is vertical without any sign of trade-off relationship. Friedman used the term natural
rate of unemployment in his analysis denotes the rate at which the actual rate of inflation
equals the expected rate of inflation. The researcher in other to validate the existence of a
Phillips curve carried out various tests, using the Indian economy as a case study. The result
of the test revealed that unemployment and inflation are inversely related, thus confirming the
existence of the Phillips curve in India, with inflation having a significant impact on
unemployment in India.
Thus, there is a need for strong institutional collaboration and link among ministries for
dealing with these triplet macroeconomic variables; unemployment, inflation and real GDP in
the country. Consequently, this paper suggests some policy options for the government as
follows:
(1) Restructuring the economy through inward growth not along foreign borrowed ideology;
(2) Efficient modern technology to create more sustainable jobs and enhance the real wage of
workers;
(3) Ensure macroeconomic management of price instability;
(4) Improving infrastructure particularly electricity which in turn may generate employment.
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