Tracking Africa's Progress in Figures

0,600
African Development Bank Group
7,200 5,000
2,100
10,400
1,200
11,240
16,900
3,100
4,680
2,600
5,000
1,800
1,900
9,500
8,900
12,400

Contents
Foreword............................................................................................................................................................ 1
Overview............................................................................................................................................................ 2
Chapter 1: Human Development
1.1 Population.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 6
1.2 People in Cities..................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
1.3 Health....................................................................................................................................................................................................11
1.4 Education.............................................................................................................................................................................................15
Chapter 2: Economic Performance, Inclusiveness, and Structural Transformation
2.1 Economic Performance and Outlook............................................................................................................................................20
2.2 Private Sector Development...........................................................................................................................................................21
2.3 Poverty Reduction and the Emergence of the Middle Class..................................................................................................24
© 2014 African Development Bank 2.4 Inclusive Growth................................................................................................................................................................................25
All rights reserved. 2.5 Structural Transformation................................................................................................................................................................26
This report was prepared by the Statistics Department Chapter 3: Governance, Fragility, and Security
in the Chief Economist Vice Presidency of the African 3.1 Governance and Corruption............................................................................................................................................................30
Development Bank. Its findings reflect the opinions 3.2 Fragility.................................................................................................................................................................................................34
of the authors and not necessarily those of the African 3.3 Security.................................................................................................................................................................................................36
Development Bank, its Board of Directors, or the countries
they represent. Chapter 4: Regional Integration, Trade, and Investment
4.1 Africa as the New Frontier...............................................................................................................................................................40
Designations employed in this report do not imply the 4.2 Trade......................................................................................................................................................................................................42
expression of any opinion on the part of the African 4.3 Regional Integration.........................................................................................................................................................................43
Development Bank Group concerning the legal status of
Chapter 5: Infrastructure Development
any country or territory, or the delimitation of its frontiers.
5.1 Developing Infrastructure for Growth..........................................................................................................................................48
5.2 Energy...................................................................................................................................................................................................49
While every effort has been made to present reliable
information, the African Development Bank accepts no 5.3 Transportation.....................................................................................................................................................................................50
responsibility whatsoever for any consequences of its use. 5.4 Information and Communication Technology............................................................................................................................54
5.5 Water and Sanitation........................................................................................................................................................................57
Cover, layout, infographics, and other design by Prognoz. 5.6 Housing.................................................................................................................................................................................................58
Printing and Production by Phoenix Design Aid—Denmark. Chapter 6: Agriculture, Food Security, and a Greener Environment
6.1 African Agriculture.............................................................................................................................................................................62
For any inquiries on this report, please contact:
6.2 Food Security......................................................................................................................................................................................64
6.3 Towards Green Growth......................................................................................................................................................................66
Statistics Department
Chief Economist Complex Conclusion....................................................................................................................................................... 68
African Development Bank Group
References....................................................................................................................................................... 69
Temporary Relocation Agency (TRA)
BP 323, 1002 Belvédère, Tunis Acknowledgments........................................................................................................................................... 71
Tunisia
Tel: (+216) 7110 2175

Fax: (+216) 7183 2409
e-mail: [email protected]
Web: www.afdb.org/statistics
Foreword
Africa is a continent of significant scale The long-term strategic thinking of the African
and diversity, covering 54 countries with Development Bank is informed by these
their own geographical, economic, and megatrends. As the preeminent development
cultural characteristics. Over the last few institution for Africa, the Bank plays a
decades, Africa has embarked on a process vital role in supporting regional member
of transformation and growth. The African countries. It achieves this through executing
Development Bank’s Tracking Africa’s well-designed projects and programs to
Progress in Figures report aims to identify deliver broad social and economic benefits
the ‘megatrends’ which, together with other and sound value for money.
drivers of change, will shape Africa’s future.
The Bank’s long-term strategic priorities
With Africa’s population expanding include: fostering private-sector led
rapidly, from around 1 billion today to investment, growth and job creation;
an estimated 2.5 billion by 2060, we will supporting the development of capable
have a young and increasingly urbanized states and institutions for inclusive growth;
workforce, which presents an opportunity and developing the skills and human capital
to reap a ‘demographic dividend.’ Seizing that a youthful labor force will need to grasp
that opportunity will depend on access to the opportunities of economic growth.
education and skills, the quality and scale of
public investment in infrastructure, and the Our strategy will support the transformation
associated private investment in business of Africa into a stable, competitive, integrated,
and jobs. and greener continent, built on a foundation
of inclusive and sustainable growth.
Growing populations and urbanization,
linked to increasing integration within the
world economy, present new challenges, not
least for agriculture, which is also facing the
risks associated with climate change. Africa’s
natural resources endowment will continue Professor Mthuli Ncube
to offer an opportunity for economic growth, Chief Economist & Vice President
if well managed, primarily by financing African Development Bank Group
investment in infrastructure and human
capital.
Foreword 1
Overview
African economies have sustained unprecedented rates of growth, driven mainly by capacity to deliver economic opportunity and human connected global marketplace. With plans to establish
development; 67 percent of countries made progress in regional- and continental-wide free trade areas well
strong domestic demand, improved macroeconomic management, a growing middle fostering political participation, gender equality, and underway, political commitment will be required to
class, and increased political stability. As the continent continues to evolve, the African human rights; and 40 percent of countries strengthened translate the trade agendas into sound policy and
their safety and rule of law. Tackling corruption remains regulatory reforms to maximize the benefits.
Development Bank’s Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures publication looks at the key an essential part of Africa’s development agenda.
megatrends of the last few decades that will shape Africa’s future. INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
Africa is growing, creating both opportunities and
risks. Change is intrinsic to the development process; As Africa continues to urbanize, the importance of public
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT This is coupled with the continent’s emerging middle if managed effectively, they can help unlock Africa’s investment in infrastructure becomes increasingly
class, grown to some 350 million people and projected to development potential. Yet change can also be evident. Basic amenities such as housing, drinking water,
Over the last 20 years the continent’s population has reach 1.1 billion by 2060. Africa’s growth, however, has disruptive: urbanization and slum development, the and sanitation facilities are needed to provide Africa’s
grown rapidly and in 2011 exceeded the 1 billion mark. not been even across all countries. Six of the ten most youth bulge, inequality and social exclusion, climate growing population with a better standard of living.
Of all global regions, Africa will lead population growth unequal countries in the world are in Africa, and there pressures, environmental damage, new resource rents Investments in energy and transport will also help
over the next 50 years. Linked to this megatrend of rapid is not yet any evidence of progress in reducing income and resource scarcity, and weak governance all have the increase access to affordable and reliable electricity,
population growth is that of urbanization. The people inequality. With the endowment of a young growing potential to place African societies under considerable improve transport connectivity, and reduce transport
of Africa will increasingly be city dwellers. Since 1960, workforce on the one hand and natural resources on the strain. Fragility comes about where these pressures cost and time.
the urban share of Africa’s population has doubled from other, Africa has an important opportunity for inclusive become too great for countries to manage within the
19 to 39 percent, equivalent to an increase of more than growth. The challenge is to seize it through well- political and institutional process, creating a risk At the same time, Africa’s rising consumer class has
416 million people in 2011. This means that Africa will executed investment in infrastructure, increased access that conflict spills over into violence. Despite tough resulted in a surge in mobile-cellular subscriptions and
have some of the largest mega-cities in the world. to education and relevant training, the development of challenges posed by fragility, progress is possible. internet usage. As it stands, broadband coverage is at 16
capable institutions, and support for private investment While various fragile states have lost ground in terms of percent and will likely reach 99 percent by 2060.
With a large population, Africa can harness and build and job creation. economic growth during earlier periods of conflict—such
on the expanded workforce to spur economic growth. as the case of Liberia where GDP dropped by as much as AGRICULTURE, FOOD SECURITY, AND
However, this is conditional on Africa improving access Structural economic change is indispensable to achieve 90 percent in 20 years—many of them, with peace and A GREENER ENVIRONMENT
to and equity within health systems, articulating the desired progress of Africa and to bring prosperity stability, are now on the path of growth and recovery.
right education policies, and creating employment to the continent’s populations. In order to alleviate Agricultural production has increased, but mainly by
opportunities. poverty and reduce income inequalities, Africa will need More effective and better coordinated efforts, tailored bringing more land under cultivation rather than by
to embrace structural transformation while maintaining to each individual situation, must be made to assist improvements in yields. Feeding the expanding urban
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, INCLUSIVENESS, robust economic growth. Fostering diversification countries affected by fragility and conflict, and countries population will present a challenge that will entail
AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION through transition to high-productive sectors will be in transition in managing political, security, economic, adoption of the latest technologies and high-yielding
a catalyst for industrial upgrading and technological and environmental stresses that make them and their crop varieties as a way of raising productivity.
Africa is on the rise. On aggregate, the region’s GDP innovation which in turn will increase job creation. The citizens vulnerable.
growth is expected to average more than 5 percent path toward obtaining the status of middle-income and Strengthening agriculture and food security through
over 2013–2015. Average inflation in Africa stood at high-income countries will necessitate diversifying REGIONAL INTEGRATION, TRADE, AND an integrated value chain approach can improve the
8.9 percent in 2012 and has since edged down to 6.7 African economies away from dominant sectors such as INVESTMENT livelihoods of Africans who live in rural areas. Many are
percent in 2013, having been largely contained in most agriculture and commodities. reliant on subsistence farming, and a sizable proportion
In recent years, Africa has emerged as a frontier market, is chronically vulnerable to climatic uncertainty.
African countries. Macroeconomic stability, trade and
having increasingly attracted the attention of investors. Africa lives off its land, and more than 227 million
exchange rate liberalization, and new policies and GOVERNANCE, FRAGILITY, AND SECURITY In 2012, Africa’s foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow
incentives supportive of the private sector have helped Africans work on the land, which too often fails to
grew to USD 50 billion while exports amounted to USD provide for their needs. By continuing to invest in rural
drive private sector development. Africa’s rapid economic growth is transforming the
641 billion. At the same time, intra-African trade remains infrastructure (such as rural roads, irrigation, electricity,
lives and livelihoods of Africans at an unprecedented
Supported by the strong economic growth, the low. Integration remains essential for Africa to realize storage facilities, access to markets, conservation
pace. Such growth is underpinned by improvements
proportion of people living in poverty has fallen from its full growth potential, to participate in the global systems, and supply networks), countries can increase
in governance: over the period of 2000-2012, around
over 50 percent in 1981 to less than 45 percent in 2012. economy, and to share the benefits of an increasingly their agricultural productivity and competitiveness.
89 percent of African countries have improved their
2 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Overview 3

1
Human
Development
Human capital promises to be the key driver of African growth. With booming Population by age group: Africa and Asia, 1950 vs 2010
population and increased urbanization, the importance in education, healthcare, and Millions 1950 2010
100+
housing becomes increasingly evident. 90-94
80-84 Africa’s population is young
70-74
and growing rapidly.
1.1 POPULATION
60-64
50-54
40-44 Just over 1 billion people
Over the last twenty years, Africa’s population has increased investments to power Africa’s future. Africa has a young and
½
30-34
20-24
live in Africa— of whom
by 2.5 percent per year and in 2011 the number of people growing workforce—from about 617 million today to 1.6 billion are under the age of 20.
10-14
living in the young continent exceeded the 1 billion mark. in 2060, providing an opportunity to reap a ‘demographic 0-4
This is expected to rise to at least 2.4 billion by 2050, with dividend’, if people can work productively. Seizing that 200 100 0 100 200 200 100 0 100 200
some of the countries doubling or even tripling their numbers, opportunity depends on access to education and skills, the Africa, females 1950 Africa, males 1950 Africa, females 2010 Africa, males 2010
Asia, females 1950 Asia, males 1950 Asia, females 2010 Asia, males 2010
making Africa the region with the largest population growth. quality and scale of public investment in infrastructure, and
the associated private investment in business and jobs.
Sustained population growth has been driven by mortality
Population growth: Africa, Asia, and Latin America & the Caribbean, 1951-2010
rates falling faster than fertility rates, in large part due to Africa, a continent whose physical size is larger than China,
improvements in access to clean water and a decline in India, United States, Japan, and most of Europe and United %
the spread of preventable and communicable diseases. Kingdom combined and has what is soon-to-be the world’s 3.0
Not only will fertility rates continue to fall, so too will largest workforce, has an opportunity to transform into a 2.5 Whilst population growth
child mortality. How far the population increases will global economic powerhouse. 2.0 in other regions has slowed,
depend on how fast fertility falls. 1.5
Africa’s has increased by
1.0 2.42% per year for the past
Rapid population growth calls for governments, development 30 years.
0.5
agencies, and the private sector to collaborate on strategic
0.0
Africa Asia Latin America and
the Caribbean
STATES
1951 - 1980 1981 - 2010
Italy
FRANCE
Africa—a continent larger

than China, India, United
INDIA
AUSTRIA
Population, world regions, 2010-2100
States, Japan, and most
of Europe combined— EASTERN Greece Billions
EUROPE
is becoming the next 6
SPAIN
frontier market. 5 By 2050, the African
population is forecast
4
With rapidly growing to rise to at least 2.4 billion
Germany 3
and will continue to grow
China
population, increased
urbanization, and what
PORTUGAL to 4.2 billion—four times
2
is soon-to-be the world’s its current size—in the next

SWITZERLAND
Japan
largest workforce, Africa has 0 100 years.
an opportunity to transform 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100
into a global economic

UNITED
Asia Africa Europe South America North America

BELGIUM
powerhouse.
Mortality and fertility rates, Africa, 1965-2010
NETHERLANDS
245 7
210 6
Sustained population growth
Births per woman

Child mortality
175 5
results from mortality
UK
140 4
105 3
rates falling by more than
70 2
fertility rates.
Source: African Development Bank 35 1
0 0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Under-five mortality per 1,000 live births (lhs) Total fertilit y rate (rhs)
Source: African Development Bank and United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
6 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Human Development 7

1.2 PEOPLE IN CITIES Growth of African cities
The shift toward cities has been a pan-African importance of urban agglomerations. The jobs that cities
phenomenon. From 1960 to 2011, the urban share of help create will also ensure greater financial returns from City Country Population (Thousands) % change
Africa’s population rose from 19 percent to 39 percent— education and training.
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2010—2025
equivalent to just above 416 million people in 2011. By
2040 half of Africa’s population will live in a city. Several While urban concentrations of population can prove to be the
Dar es Salaam.......... Tanzania......... 2,680........ 3,349........ 4,153.........5,103.........6,202 85.2
African cities, such as Dar es Salaam and Kinshasa, are foundation of rapid economic growth, urban areas can also
now and will continue to be among the fastest-growing provide serious challenges to government, especially in the Nairobi........................ Kenya.............. 2,814........ 3,523........ 4,303.........5,192.........6,246 77.3
in the world. supply of food, jobs, housing, sanitation, transport facilities,
education, health care, and services, including controlling Kinshasa.................... DRC...................7,106........ 8,754...... 10,668...... 12,788...... 15,041 71.8
African cities have been turning into centers of political pollution and crime. Migration also means that more diversity
and cultural life. Agglomerations of people make ‘getting among urban populations will need to be well-managed. Luanda........................ Angola............ 3,533........ 4,772........ 6,013......... 7,080.........8,077 69.3
connected’, the transfer of know-how, and learning easier, Proper strategies will ensure that benefits of urbanization are
and they support clusters of firms doing similar things. maximized while negative effects are minimized. This means Addis Ababa.............. Ethiopia.......... 2,633........ 2,930........ 3,365.........3,981.........4,757 62.4
With competition and spill-over effects, such clusters spur good governance and urban investment. Progress in meeting
Abidjan....................... Côte d’Ivoire.. 3,564........ 4,125........ 4,788.........5,500.........6,321 53.2
improvements in productivity, competence, and growth. these challenges would be shown by a fall in the proportion
The expanding share of industry and services in total of slum-dwellers, who currently account for half of urban
Dakar.......................... Senegal.......... 2,434........ 2,863........ 3,308.........3,796.........4,338 51.5
gross domestic product (GDP) in Africa illustrates the inhabitants.
Lagos.......................... Nigeria............ 8,767......10,578...... 12,427...... 14,162...... 15,810 49.5
Ibadan........................ Nigeria............ 2,509........ 2,837........ 3,276.........3,760.........4,237 49.3

Urban population trend, Africa, 1950-2050 Accra........................... Ghana.............. 1,985........ 2,342........ 2,722.........3,110.........3,497 49.3
70 1,400
Kano............................ Nigeria............ 2,993........ 3,395........ 3,922.........4,495.........5,060 49
60 1,200 Douala........................ Cameroon...... 1,767........ 2,125........ 2,478.........2,815.........3,131 47.3

Urban population share of the total
50 1,000 Alexandria................. Egypt............... 3,973........ 4,387........ 4,791.........5,201.........5,648 28.7
Urban population (Millions)

African population (%)
Algiers........................ Algeria............ 2,512........ 2,800........ 3,099.........3,371.........3,595 28.4

40 800
Casablanca................ Morocco.......... 3,138........ 3,284.........3,537.........3,816.........4,065 23.8

30 600
Cairo............................ Egypt.............10,565......11,001...... 11,663...... 12,540...... 13,531 23
20 400
Ekurhuleni................. South Africa.. 2,824........ 3,202........ 3,380.........3,497.........3,614 12.9
10 200 Durban........................ South Africa.. 2,638........ 2,879........ 3,026.........3,133.........3,241 126
0 0
Johannesburg........... South Africa.. 3,263........ 3,670.........3,867.........3,996.........4,127 12.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Cape Town................. South Africa.. 3,091........ 3,405........ 3,579.........3,701.........3,824 12.3
All Africa (%) Urban (Millions)
Source: African Development Bank Source: United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat)
Urban share of Africa’s By 2030 urban populations Percentage of people living in Africa has 52 cities with populations Several African cities, such as Dar es Salaam
population has doubled will increase by an additional cities is higher than in India and Kinshasa, are now and will continue to be
of one million or higher–the same number
from 19% to 39% over the last 350 million people. and will reach 58% by 2030. as for Europe. among the fastest-growing in the world.
50 years, which means more
than 360 million new city
dwellers.

City population in Africa Algiers Alexandria
1.3 HEALTH
The health landscape has transformed dramatically since the reducing its adult mortality rate from its 1990 level,
independence of African countries about 50 years ago, and while Liberia, Rwanda, Algeria, and Burkina Faso also
Africa is the fastest Casablanka this is expected to continue as the continent progresses over performed remarkably well. However, Swaziland and
urbanizing continent the next half-century. Africa has made considerable headway Lesotho registered a twofold increase in their mortality
in the world. Cairo in improving the health outcomes of its populations, in spite rates between 1990 and 2011.
Abidjan Ibadan
Addis Ababa of the challenges posed by pervasive poverty, epidemic
diseases, and food insecurity. However, there remains an Over the coming decades, mortality rates will decline
Good governance Accra
evident need to establish more robust health systems and to in most places as the strong focus on reducing the impact of
and urban improve the availability and quality of health care services. preventable and communicable diseases continues. Inclusive
investment will Nairobi
economic growth and better access to water, sanitation, and
ensure that benefits 10m
Dakar
Douala
LIFE EXPECTANCY health facilities will contribute to a projected two-thirds
of urbanization are decline in average child and infant mortality, from 93 per
maximized while 2m
Life expectancy at birth reflects the overall mortality 1,000 live births in 2015 to 32 per 1,000 live births by 2060.
negative effects are 0
prevailing across all age groups of a population. Over the
minimized. last 60 years, life expectancy in the continent has risen from MAJOR CAUSES OF DEATH
2010
2025
37 in 1950 to 58 in 2011. The increasing life expectancy
Dar es Salaam in Africa is being partly driven by improved economic The traditional communicable diseases of HIV/AIDS, malaria,
Kinshasa
Lagos
opportunities, with significant sub-regional variations: sub- and tuberculosis remain the main drivers of mortality.
Johannesburg
regions and countries with higher GDP per capita tend to Projections indicate that the number of people living with HIV/
report higher life expectancy; the reverse is also true, with AIDS will be around 70 million by 2050; therefore combating
Luanda poverty associated with lower life expectancy. Though such HIV/AIDS will present an extraordinary challenge. Treatments
Cape Town
sub-regional variations are likely to persist—with North and for the major communicable diseases will continue to occupy
Slum population in urban Africa Durban
East Africa experiencing the highest expectancy and Central a significant portion of national health budgets for the
Africa most likely to be making the slowest progress—it is foreseeable future. The likelihood of an HIV vaccine coming
anticipated that life expectancy will steadily improve by onto the market in the coming decade is slim, but perhaps one
Tunisia
Algeria 2060, with the continental average reaching 71 years. will emerge over the next 50 years. HIV will continue to cause
premature deaths in the working-age population, and will erode
Morocco Total urban population by country MORTALITY the social fabric of countries and the integrity of communities.
Libya
Million inhabitants A promising malaria vaccine is more likely to emerge, although
Egypt
65 Share of urban Infant mortality on the African continent has improved ensuring the vaccine’s affordability will need to be addressed.
population living
30
in slums by around 36 percent over the past 20 years, from 102 Outbreaks of polio and measles should cease to exist.
Mauritania
Mali Niger 15
No data
deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 65 per 1,000 in
Senegal
Gambia Burkina Faso Chad Eritrea
7
2011. Significant progress has been recorded for under-five Concomitantly, chronic conditions such as cardiovascular
1
Guinea-Bissau
Guinea Benin Sudan
Djibouti 0.5
mortality also, as shown by a decline of over 50 percent diseases, diabetes, and cancer—associated with a growing
Nigeria
Sierra Leone Togo over the past 40 years, from 227 deaths per 1,000 live middle-class lifestyle—are also emerging as major killers on
Liberia Central African Ethiopia
Côte Republic births in 1970 to 103 per 1,000 live births in 2011. Maternal the continent. This is creating a double disease burden which
d'Ivoire Ghana Somalia
Cameroon mortality ratio—although still high in comparison to other African health systems are ill equipped to handle. In fact, it is
Equatorial Guinea
Uganda Kenya
Slum-dwellers currently world regions—decreased from 708 per 100,000 live births the chronic, non-communicable conditions that will emerge
Congo Rwanda
Gabon account for half of urban in 1990 to 415 per 100,000 live births in 2010, supported by as Africa’s biggest health challenge over the next half century;
DR Congo Burundi declining fertility rates and greater access to contraceptives. these are expected to overtake communicable diseases as the
Tanzania inhabitants.
most common cause of death. Scaling up interventions for the
Comoros While Africa has made steady, significant improvements prevention and control of chronic diseases will be critical.
Angola Malawi
over recent decades, it remains the global region with
Zambia Mazambique the lowest average life expectancy and highest mortality ACCESS TO AND THE USE OF HEALTHCARE
Competition, transfer of know- ratios. The overall population growth, conflict and SERVICES
Zimbabwe Madagascar
civil emergencies, and the effects of HIV/AIDS have all
Botswana how, and spill-over effects can
Namibia
Swaziland
contributed to this increase. However, the average masks In Africa, on average there are only 17 hospital beds per
make cities a source of rapid massive variations between sub-regions and countries, 10,000 people, in comparison to the world average of 30.
Lesotho
whereby the impressive performance of certain countries Improved sanitation systems and better access to safe water
economic growth.
are overshadowed by poor results of others. Madagascar, have lessened the risk of waterborne diseases and so have
South Africa for example, stands out as a good performer, significantly contributed to the decline in maternal and infant mortality.
Source: United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat)

A number of countries have increased the provision of introduced free services for children, including: Burundi,
Infant mortality rate, Africa, 1990 vs 2011
maternal health services. On average, about 74 percent of Ghana, Lesotho, Niger, Sierra Leone, Sudan, and Uganda.
pregnant women in Africa have recorded at least one visit Notwithstanding such positive developments, medical Per 1,000 live births
for antenatal care. In Swaziland, Gambia, and Rwanda, 97 treatment for childhood illnesses remains sub-par across
Africa
percent of pregnant women reported receiving some form the continent. This is demonstrated by the low treatment
Africa’s reduction
of antenatal service. Ghana, Kenya, and Burundi introduced rates for acute respiratory infections (ARI) and diarrhoea, South-East Asia
in child mortality over the
free healthcare services for pregnant women, and Burkina which have shown scant improvement over time. There are Eastern Mediterranean
past decade is one of the
Faso followed suit with an 80 percent subsidy policy for wide sub-regional variations however, with 79 percent of World biggest and best stories
deliveries. Morocco provides free transportation to obstetric children with ARI seeing a provider in Uganda, compared to
Western Pacific in development.
facilities in rural areas. Nevertheless, over 18 million African only 27 percent in Ethiopia.
Americas
women still do not give birth in a health facility.
Good health is a precondition for development, and it Europe
Family planning services have been neglected across the is becoming clear that achievement of this goal is not 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
continent. Only 15 percent of women of reproductive age reliant on the health sector alone; rather it is mediated by
1990 2011
use modern family planning methods, while 25 percent environmental, social, infrastructural, and regulatory systems.
of women report an unmet need for contraception. The The next half-century will witness a more holistic approach
relatively poor access to reproductive health services to improving health, as systems move toward preventative as
is reflected in the continent’s high adolescent fertility well as curative care. Improving access to and equity within
rates. This is significant given the causal link between health systems will require multisectoral interventions. It will
adolescent birth rates and maternal mortality. also mean engaging the cooperation and participation of all
Under-five mortality rate, Africa, 1990 vs 2011
stakeholders, including national and provincial governments,
High-profile campaigns have been launched in recent the private sector, and local communities. The international Per 1,000 live births
years to scale up childhood immunization. This has led to community and regional development institutions also have
a dramatic increase in the number of children protected a role to play in assisting to build the capacity of national Africa
against key preventable diseases. Some countries have health systems, as well as in mobilizing financial support. South-East Asia Average child and infant
Eastern Mediterranean mortality will reduce from
Life expectancy, Africa World 93 per 1,000 live births in
Years Western Pacific
2015 to 32 per 1,000 live
Americas births by 2060.
Africa
Life expectancy in the Europe
Central Africa
continent is expected to rise 0 40 80 120 160 200
East Africa
to over 70 years by 2060,
1990 2011
North Africa though not without
Southern Africa sub-regional variations.
West Africa
40 50 60 70 80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Maternal mortality ratio, Africa, 1990 vs 2010
Per 100,000 live births
Life expectancy compared to other world regions Africa
Years Maternal mortality ratio—

South-East Asia
although still high in
Africa
While Africa has made Eastern Mediterranean
comparison to other world
South-East Asia
steady improvements World regions—decreased from
Eastern Mediterranean
over recent decades, it 708 per 100,000 live births
World Western Pacific
remains the global region in 1990 to 415 per 100,000
Western Pacific
with the lowest average life Americas live births in 2010, supported
Americas
expectancy and highest by declining fertility
Europe
Europe
mortality ratios. rates and greater access
0 20 40 60 80 0 200 400 600 800
to contraceptives.
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
1990 2010
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs

Mortality ratios and major causes of death, world regions, 2010 1.4 EDUCATION
Deaths per 100,000 population
Good quality education is a solid investment with high have no access to secondary education or technical skills
rates of return for both economic growth and employment development, and 82 million adults are illiterate.
Western Eastern
Americas Europe
Pacific Mediterranean
South-East Asia Africa creation. Over the last two decades, Africa has made
unprecedented progress in the development of education. To achieve the projected 96 percent rate of adult literacy
Sixty million more children in Sub-Saharan Africa are in 2060, enrollment and completion rates need to rise.
enrolled in primary school today, with (net) enrollment Moreover, the education system needs to help youth
rates rising from 52 percent in 1990 to 77 percent in 2011. and adults develop a solid foundation of literacy and
The percentage of girls to boys enrolled in primary schools computational skills, along with transferable skills, as
590 646 672 1,051 1,111 1,684 had, too, increased from 83 percent to 100 percent over the well as technical and vocational skills, to join a productive
same period of time. Enrollment in secondary education workforce. More teachers will also be needed: pupil-teacher
more than doubled from 20.8 million to 46.3 million as ratios have not improved over the last decade as countries
well. Nonetheless, enrollment rates for tertiary education struggle to keep pace with the rising school-age population.
in Africa are currently just 6 percent for female students and
10 percent for males. The experience of the last several decades shows that
Communicable Non-communicable Injuries From Injuries: Road traffic increasing the financing of education can go a long way.
While the prospects are positive for universal primary More than ever, now is the time to invest in the future. For
education and gender equality, challenges remain for early Africa to meet its vision of becoming a dynamic, diversified,
Communicable diseases, Africa, 2010-2030 childhood care and education, youth and adult skills, adult and competitive economic zone, a blend of public resources
literacy, and the issue of quality. At present, 30 million and reform to support the delivery of education and training
Millions
children are still out of school, 35 percent of the youth will be required.
6 70
Africa will continue to be

5 60
Number living with HIV/AIDS
challenged by high HIV/
Education progress for Sub-Saharan Africa from 1990 to 2011
Number infections deaths
AIDS burden. 1990 2011

4 50
(millions)
(millions)
People needing antiretroviral Gross enrollment rate in pre-primary education, %..............................................................................................9.7..................17.8

3 40 treatment: 7.5 million Male, %....................................................................................................................................................................... 9.9.................. 17.8
today, ~30 million by 2022. Female, %................................................................................................................................................................... 9.5.................. 17.9
2 30 Net enrollment rate in primary education, %...................................................................................................... 52.4..................77.1
Male, %..................................................................................................................................................................... 57.5..................79.1
1 20
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Female, %................................................................................................................................................................. 47.3..................75.1
Gross enrollment rate in secondary education, %.............................................................................................. 22.6................. 41.1
New HIV infections Number living with HIV/AIDS Number of AIDS deaths
Male, %.....................................................................................................................................................................25.6..................45.0
Female, %.................................................................................................................................................................19.4.................. 37.1
Gross enrollment rate in tertiary education, %......................................................................................................3.0.................... 7.7
Chronic (non-communicable) disease, Africa Male, %....................................................................................................................................................................... 4.0.................... 9.5
Female, %................................................................................................................................................................... 1.9.................... 5.8
People with Diabetes: 12.1 million patients People with Cancer: 681,000 new cases in
Source: World Bank and United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
today, 24 million by 2030. 2008, 1.6 million new cases a year by 2030.
Source: World Health Organization Africa has made good progress 30 million children are out of school.
toward achieving universal primary
education. More needs to be done 35% of the youth have no access to secondary education
Sustained improvements in health to improve primary completion or technical skills development.
and education will help economic rates, the quality of education, and
secondary and tertiary enrollments. Half of all children reach adolescence without achieving
growth become more inclusive.
literacy or numeracy.

Children reaching the minimum required level of competences at the end of primary education, Africa
% of children
Maths Reading
Urgent action
Eastern and Southern Africa 36 64 is needed to
Central and West Africa 43 35 improve the quality
of education in
Africa.
Adult literacy status in selected African countries

Men and Women aged 15 to 29 who completed only six years of school, 2005 to 2011 (%)
F M F M F M F M F M
100
For many young people,
80 six years of school are
60 insufficient to build
literacy skills.
40
20
0
Nigeria Ghana Zambia Kenya U.R. Tanzania
F—Female M—Male
Literate Semi-literate Illiterate
New teaching posts required to close the education gap, Africa

Thousands
Primary school Lower secondary school

3000 3000
2500 2500
2000 2000
1500 1500
1000 1000
500 500
0 0
2015 2030 2015 2030
Sub-Saharan Africa South and West Asia Arab States Sub-Saharan Africa South and West Asia Arab States
Source: EFA Global Monitoring Report team analysis (2012) based on Demographic and Health Survey data
Population growth, higher demand for Public spending in education currently

education and attrition of resources averages around 5% of Africa’s GDP—from
to hire and train teachers are driving demand just over 1% in Central African Republic
in Sub-Saharan Africa. to 12% in Lesotho.
Africa must begin to provide

comprehensive and quality education in
order to break the poverty chain.

2 Economic
Performance,
Inclusiveness,
and Structural
Transformation
The past decade of unparalleled growth has changed perceptions about Africa for the 2.2 PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
better. Seven of the world’s ten fastest growing economies are in Africa today, poverty
Since the 1990s, economic reforms in Africa have allowed countries that have improved the most internationally. Their
has been falling since the start of the millennium, and a middle class is fueling growth the private sector to flourish and become an engine successes have been rewarded by increased levels of trade
in domestic consumer demand. With new investments and a growing economy, Africa of economic diversification and growth. The roles of and investment. There are, however, still many obstacles in
government and the private sector in economic activity and Africa’s investment and business climate. Access to finance
clearly has an opportunity over the next decade to become a prosperous continent management have become clearer. Macroeconomic stability, remains a large concern of business leaders in Sub-Saharan
that creates more employment for all. trade and exchange rate liberalization, and new policies Africa, while inefficient government bureaucracy represents
and incentives supportive of the private sector have helped the biggest concern in North Africa. Business leaders in both
build credibility and a conducive environment for private regions point out the lack of a sufficiently skilled workforce.
2.1 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK sector development. This has increased private sector (both Other factors include high rates of taxation, corruption, and
inadequate supply of infrastructure. Reforming business
domestic and foreign) confidence in the African economy
Since the start of the new millennium, Africa’s economic postponed fiscal reforms, and protracted industrial disputes, and generated substantial levels of private investment. regulations also proves to be difficult in fragile and conflict-
pulse has quickened: real gross domestic product (GDP) has Africa’s collective GDP stands at USD 2.5 trillion today—and Recent growth in African economies is largely attributed affected countries.
been rising by 5 percent a year and real income per capita the continent is among the world’s fastest growing regions. to the private sector. Even though foreign aid increased,
has increased by 2.1 percent a year. African growth has Such progress has been mainly driven by improved economic governments reformed, and new natural resources were For the private sector to play its full role as an engine of
outperformed both Latin America and developed economies governance which has created macroeconomic stability discovered, it is largely the response of the private sector growth and poverty reduction, African countries will need
over the last 5 years, successfully weathering the global and a more predictable business environment for investors. that caused growth to accelerate in the 2000s. to create an enabling environment in which micro, small,
financial crisis of 2008/9. Other important factors include population growth in an and medium size enterprises (MSMEs) and labor-intensive
increasingly urban setting; an expanding middle class; strong As Africa’s economies expand, the private sector—currently activities thrive alongside large firms in both traditional
Africa’s economies continued to demonstrate resilience in generating 90 percent of Africa’s jobs, two-thirds of its and new areas. This will require improving the legal and
commodity prices, particularly mineral resources; expansion
2013, with average GDP growing by 3.9 percent. Although investment, and 70 percent of its output—will become regulatory environment for doing business and strengthening
in South-South trade (e.g. with China); lower risk to capital;
political and social upheavals impacted some North African even more important, especially in industry. Considerable the financial services sector by increasing access to finance,
stronger governance; and better conditions for private sector
economies, momentum in industrial production growth has progress has been made in promoting a more business- improving corporate governance, supporting human capital
development.
strengthened in recent months, signaling an improvement friendly environment. The costs of business start-up have and skills development, and fostering entrepreneurship.
in economic activity going forward. Sub-Saharan Africa Furthermore, Africa’s future remains promising: despite fallen by more than two-thirds over the past seven years, Foreign investment and associated technology transfers
continued to reap the benefits of the natural resource boom, headwinds from the global economy, GDP is projected to and the time required for business start-up has been will continue to be important for the development of private
supported by vigorous domestic demand, notably investment grow by 4.8 percent in 2014, outperforming many developed reduced by nearly half. New property registration programs, enterprises as well. Further impetus to private sector-led
growth, and large export volumes. countries. This is, however, not without regional variation: improvements to trading across borders, simplified tax growth could be expected from substantial improvements
in North Africa, outlook is shrouded by political instability process, improved solvency framework, and strengthened in both ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ infrastructure and the expansion of
Average inflation in Africa, at 8.9 percent in 2012, was above
and policy uncertainty while commodity-rich economies of investor protections have contributed to the growth. markets through regional integration.
that of comparable regions in the developing world, where
West and Central Africa are projected to grow at between Rwanda, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Egypt, Mali, Sierra Leone,
inflation was about 6 percent, and the Eurozone, where it was
6 to 8 percent, 1 to 2 percentage points higher than East Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, and Côte d’Ivoire are amongst the
only about 2 percent. In contrast to past decades, however,
Africa and Southern Africa. Inflation is expected to remain in
African inflation was mostly below 10 percent during
single digits, owing to anti-inflation policies and projected
the 2000s, a reflection of the strength of macroeconomic
management in recent years. Since the latter part of 2012,
bountiful harvests in many parts of the continent. Given Assistance to the private sector goes beyond
narrow tax rates, however, revenue generation will remain
inflation in Africa has edged down to 6.7 percent in 2013 and
a challenge for many countries. A number of countries are
the provision of incentives, and government
has largely been contained in most African countries.
already exploring innovative approaches to raising resources is looking at wider interventions to lower the
Prudent fiscal and monetary policies are still required. for investment, especially for large concession agreements in
infrastructure. Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Kenya, Namibia, and
cost of doing business. Improvements are
Continent-wide, fiscal deficits declined to 3.9 percent of GDP
in 2013 (from 3 percent in 2011), with noticeable differences Zambia have gone to global markets, and will be followed being made to economic infrastructure such
between net oil-importers (4.2 percent) and oil-exporters (3.7 by many others. The main engines of growth are expected
to be expansion in agricultural production, robust growth in
as ports, roads, and electricity generation to
percent). Africa’s foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows (USD
50 billion)—with much of the investment going to Africa’s services, and a rise in oil production and increased mining cater for the needs of business.
oil and gas, mining, finance, wholesale and retail commerce, activity mainly in resource-rich countries. Conflict remains
transportation, telecommunications, and manufacturing a concern but has declined—reducing the contagion for
sectors—and remittances (USD 63 billion) remain high while neighboring countries and boosting investor confidence
net aid inflows are tepid. Government spending continues to in many regions. By further closing the infrastructure gap,
rise at a moderate pace, as governments expand spending in increasing access to key public services such as education, Over the last year, 32 African countries implemented 71 economic reforms making it easier
an effort to reach the Millennium Development Goals. health, and security, and addressing concerns of high poverty to do business.
and widening income inequality, Africa can realize its vision
While many of Africa’s individual economies still face risks of becoming the next emerging market and global growth
and vulnerabilities, including political instability, derailed or pole.
20 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Economic Performance, Inclusiveness, and Structural Transformation 21
Business regulatory efficiency improvement
Distance to frontier (percentage points)
Total
Rank Country 2005 2013 Change
Reforms More than 400,000
new companies were
01 Rwanda................................................................................................................................ 37.4.................70.5............. 33.1........... 34
registered last year.
02 Georgia................................................................................................................................48.4.................80.8............. 32.3........... 36
03 Belarus.................................................................................................................................41.1................. 67.1............. 26............... 29
04 Ukraine................................................................................................................................38.2.................61.3............. 23.1........... 26
05 Macedonia, FYR.................................................................................................................54.3.................74.2............. 19.9........... 31
06 Burkina Faso......................................................................................................................30.6.................50................ 19.4........... 20
07 Kyrgyz Republic.................................................................................................................44.9.................63.7............. 18.8........... 14 The future of African economic growth—and the futures of millions of Africans and
08 Tajikistan.............................................................................................................................30.8.................48.4..............17.6........... 14
09 Burundi................................................................................................................................33.2.................50.6..............17.4........... 21 thousands of African communities—is closely tied to the private sector.
10 Egypt, Arab Rep.................................................................................................................... 38.................55.1..............17.1........... 23
11 Mali.......................................................................................................................................34.3.................51.2............. 16.9........... 16
12 Sierra Leone....................................................................................................................... 37.3.................54.1............. 16.8........... 20 The most problematic factors for doing business, sub-Saharan and North African averages
13 China....................................................................................................................................... 45.................60.9............. 15.9........... 18
14 Poland.................................................................................................................................. 57.6.................73.4............. 15.8........... 22 % of responses
15 Azerbaijan.............................................................................................................................. 49.................64.6............. 15.6........... 18
16 Colombia.............................................................................................................................55.1.................70.3............. 15.2............27 Access to financing
17 Ghana...................................................................................................................................... 52................. 67................ 15............... 12
18 Guinea-Bissau....................................................................................................................32.9................. 47.2............. 14.2.............. 7 Corruption
19 Croatia.................................................................................................................................49.1.................63.2............. 14............... 23 Inadequate supply of infrastructure

20 Côte d'Ivoire.......................................................................................................................36.5.................50.2............. 13.7............ 14
21 Guatemala..........................................................................................................................51.1.................64.7............. 13.6........... 18 Inefficient government bureaucracy
22 Kazakhstan.........................................................................................................................48.4.................61.8............. 13.5........... 20 Tax rates

23 Armenia...............................................................................................................................56.2.................69.7............. 13.5........... 23
24 Madagascar........................................................................................................................41.9.................54.2............. 12.3........... 19 Inadequately educated workforce
25 Mauritius.............................................................................................................................61.4.................73.5............. 12............... 23 Inflation

26 Angola..................................................................................................................................32.5.................44.5............. 12..................9
27 Senegal................................................................................................................................ 35.7................. 47.6............. 12............... 11 Policy instability
28 Morocco.................................................................................................................................. 52.................63.9............. 11.8........... 18 Poor work ethic in national labor force

29 Russian Federation..........................................................................................................49.9.................61.6............. 11.6........... 22
30 Togo...................................................................................................................................... 36.7.................48.1............. 11.3..............9 Tax regulations
31 Yemen, Rep..........................................................................................................................43.9.................55.1............. 11.2.............. 7 Restrictive labor regulations

32 Saudi Arabia.......................................................................................................................60.1.................71.3............. 11.1........... 19
33 Lao PDR............................................................................................................................... 37.2.................48.3............. 11.1........... 12 Crime and theft
34 Czech Republic.................................................................................................................. 57.6.................68.7............. 11.1........... 22 Foreign currency regulations

35 Moldova...............................................................................................................................54.5.................65.6............. 11.1........... 21
36 Timor-Leste........................................................................................................................ 27.9.................38.8............. 10.9..............6 Insufficient capacity to innovate
37 India..................................................................................................................................... 40.7.................51.3............. 10.6............17 Government instability/coups

38 Mozambique.......................................................................................................................... 45.................55.5............. 10.5........... 12
Poor public health
39 Niger....................................................................................................................................31.8.................42.3............. 10.5........... 11
40 Peru......................................................................................................................................... 60.................70.4............. 10.4........... 19 0 5 10 15 20
41 São Tomé and Príncipe.................................................................................................... 35.7.................46................ 10.3..............5
42 Costa Rica........................................................................................................................... 49.7.................60................ 10.3........... 12 Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa
43 Malaysia..............................................................................................................................71.4.................81.6............. 10.2............17
Source: World Economic Forum
44 Uzbekistan..........................................................................................................................38.2.................48.3............. 10............... 19
45 Slovenia.................................................................................................................................. 60.................70................ 10................17
46 Lesotho................................................................................................................................... 46.................56................ 10..................9
47 Zambia.................................................................................................................................54.8.................64.8............. 10............... 10 Access to financing, inefficient government bureaucracy, and corruption remain
48 Mexico.................................................................................................................................61.9.................71.8................9.9........... 19 biggest concerns for the private sector.
49 Cambodia............................................................................................................................40.3.................50.1................9.8..............8
50 Solomon Islands...............................................................................................................51.3.................61...................9.8..............5
Source: World Bank
Since 2005, 20 countries in Africa are among the top 50 most-improved world economies in business
regulatory efficiency. Among these economies, Rwanda improved the most over the past 7
years.
2.3 POVERTY REDUCTION AND THE EMERGENCE OF THE 2.4 INCLUSIVE GROWTH
MIDDLE CLASS While the overall outlook for Africa appears bright, challenges deep economic disaffection could exist side by side with
remain. Economic growth varies across the continent, and not apparent affluence for a while, eventually serious social
Economic growth is essential in Africa to alleviate poverty, build is projected to continue to grow and reach 1.1 billion (42 all Africans are benefiting from the growth. Six of the ten most tensions break out. Socio-economic equality is therefore
livelihoods, and improve quality of life. Over the past 20 years, percent of the population) by 2060. The more affluent unequal countries in the world are in Africa, and there is not yet a public good that is crucial for the preservation of social
despite the successive global food and financial crises, Africa lifestyle associated with the middle class has contributed to any evidence of progress in reducing income inequality. peace and harmony, which are in turn important for growth
has been growing at an unprecedented rate. The proportion of increased domestic consumption in many African countries. and wealth generation. The challenge will be to address
people living in poverty (below the threshold of USD 1.24 per Sales of refrigerators, television sets, mobile phones, motors, As it stands, income inequality, measured by the Gini index, continuing inequality so that all Africans, including those
day) has, in turn, fallen from over 50 percent in 1981 to less than and automobiles have surged in virtually every country in ranges from 31 percent in Egypt to 66 percent in Seychelles, living in isolated rural communities, deprived neighborhoods,
45 percent in 2012. Data from household surveys also show recent years. Consumer spending in Africa, primarily by the while Africa’s average Gini index is at 44 percent—only slightly and fragile states are able to benefit from economic growth.
some improvements in living standards. Though it will take middle class, has reached an estimated USD 1.3 trillion in better than in 1980. This shows a greater degree of inequality
decades of growth to make major inroads into Africa’s poverty, 2010 (60 percent of Africa’s GDP) and is projected to double than all other regions of the world, except Latin America. The time to unlock Africa’s great potential is now, and it is
there is now a growing optimism about Africa’s potential. by 2030. As such, the middle class is helping to foster Unemployment and underemployment in Africa are high more important than ever for African governments to work
private sector growth in Africa as they offer a key source of overall but for the youth and women they are especially acute. steadfastly to achieve growth that is more inclusive, leading
At the same time, the dramatic change in the economic effective demand for goods and services supplied by private Although the size of the middle class has increased markedly not just to equality of treatment and opportunity but to deep
landscape has served as both a cause and a consequence of sector entities. The middle class is also helping to improve in the past decade, generating a consumer boom and higher reductions in poverty and a correspondingly large increase
the emergence of a sizeable middle class. Defined as those accountability in public services through more vocal demands domestic investment, many poor people struggle to make a in jobs. For Africa, the ingredients for sustainable, inclusive
earning between USD 2 to USD 20 per day, Africa’s middle for better services. The middle class is better educated, better living in urban and rural areas, with little or no access to social growth are well-known: boosting agricultural production,
class has grown to some 350 million people (34 percent of informed, and has greater awareness of human rights. It is services. In some countries, urban dwellers are worse off than helping small businesses, better quality and relevant
Africa’s population), up from 126 million in 1980 (27 percent the main source of the leadership and activism that create the cousins they left in the countryside. All these indicate that education, encouraging the private sector, improving the
of the population). This represents a growth rate of 3.1 and operate many of the nongovernmental organizations the growth experienced in Africa over the past decades— investment climate, and addressing gender and regional
percent in the middle class population from 1980 to 2010, that push for greater accountability and better governance important as it has been in the fight against poverty—is uneven disparities. Promoting inclusive growth will also help
compared with a growth rate of 2.6 percent in the continent’s in public affairs, a position that augurs well for creating a and confined to specific population groups and geographical ensure political stability as equal distribution of wealth,
overall population over the same period. The middle class suitable environment for growth and development. areas. Wide regional disparities are further aggravated by poor increased social and productive sectors, spending leading
infrastructure, making it difficult for vulnerable communities to to the creation of decent work, and adequate fiscal policies
benefit from the growth in neighboring regions. The exclusion will reduce the risks of political uprisings. Addressing these
Poverty rate, Africa, 1981-2015 of women, youth, and other vulnerable groups from the issues adequately will require structural transformation of
mainstream development process comes with consequences. the African economies.
% of population living below $1.25 a day in 2005 PPP
The Arab Spring and similar uprisings indicate that although
65
Since 2005, a net 8 million

Gini index, Africa
51.5 people have moved out of Country Gini index Country Gini index
poverty.
55 1 Seychelles...............................................................65.77 24 Cote d'Ivoire...........................................................41.5
2 Comoros..................................................................64.3 25 Gabon.......................................................................41.45
The proportion of people
3 Namibia...................................................................63.9 26 Morocco...................................................................40.88
living in poverty (below the 4 South Africa............................................................63.14 27 Mauritania..............................................................40.46
threshold of $1.25 per day) 5 Zambia.....................................................................57.49 28 Senegal....................................................................40.3
has fallen from over 50% 6 Central African Republic.....................................56.3 29 Djibouti....................................................................39.96
45 7 Lesotho....................................................................52.5 30 Burkina Faso..........................................................39.79
41.2 in 1981 to less than 45% 8 Swaziland...............................................................51.49 31 Chad.........................................................................39.78
in 2012 and is projected to 9 Rwanda....................................................................50.82 32 Guinea......................................................................39.35
decline to 41.2% in 2015. 10 São Tomé and Príncipe........................................50.82 33 Togo..........................................................................39.29
11 Cabo Verde..............................................................50.52 34 Cameroon................................................................38.91
12 Nigeria.....................................................................48.83 35 Benin........................................................................38.62
35
1981 1990 1999 2008 2012 2015 13 Kenya.......................................................................47.68 36 Liberia......................................................................38.16
14 Congo, Rep..............................................................47.32 37 Tanzania..................................................................37.58
15 Gambia, The...........................................................47.28 38 Tunisia.....................................................................36.06
Source: African Development Bank
16 Mozambique...........................................................45.66 39 Guinea-Bissau........................................................35.52
17 South Sudan...........................................................45.53 40 Sierra Leone...........................................................35.35
Countries with relatively high rates of poverty reduction were Burkina Faso, Ghana, Malawi, 18 Congo, Dem. Rep....................................................44.43 41 Sudan.......................................................................35.29
Mali, Mozambique, Rwanda, Senegal, and Uganda. However, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, and 19 Uganda....................................................................44.3 42 Niger........................................................................34.55
Zimbabwe recorded increases in poverty levels. 20 Madagascar............................................................44.11 43 Ethiopia...................................................................33.6
21 Malawi.....................................................................43.91 44 Burundi....................................................................33.27
22 Ghana.......................................................................42.76 45 Mali...........................................................................33.02
23 Angola.....................................................................42.66 46 Egypt, Arab Rep.....................................................30.77
Source: World Bank
2.5 STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION exports. Similarly, one of the largest shoe exporters in China—
Huajian—has set up a factory in Ethiopia as part of a plan to
without the mobilization of substantial resources. Despite
the fact that most African countries are well endowed with
invest USD 2 billion over 10 years in developing manufacturing resources, these resources will not be sufficient for structural
African economies have sustained unprecedented rates Actors in a value chain may range from micro enterprises to
clusters focused on shoemaking for export. The company has transformation. In this context, regional integration among
of growth in the past decade, driven mainly by exports of multinational corporations, and these actors—the different
the potential to create 100,000 jobs over the period and will African countries would be essential to mobilize the needed
natural resources and commodities, improved macroeconomic links in the value chain—can be embedded in quite different
integrate local input manufacturers to global supply chains. resources for the entire region. Regional integration will
management, a growing middle class, and increased domestic environments. A global value chain (GVC) might involve
also accelerate structural transformation through economies
demand fueled by consumption, and increased political the link between rural producers and urban processing and
By promoting global value-led development strategies within of scale and by enhancing the competitiveness of African
stability. However, Africa’s growth has not been inclusive, marketing enterprises in a developing country at the domestic
the broader development framework, African countries can economies.
as poverty rates and inequalities remain high. In order to end and then linked on to firms in the developed countries.
be placed higher up the value chain, reaping gains along
significantly transform the economies of Africa from the current This coordination of production and trade relationships has
the process. This would require carefully tailored measures In recent years, African countries have demonstrated
low-income level to middle-income status, it is paramount been made possible with the openness of trade and direct
aimed at attracting foreign direct investment, building local renewed commitment to structural transformation as part
that value is added to Africa’s large reservoir of natural and foreign investment brought about by globalization and the
capacities, and fostering private sector development in of a broader agenda to diversify their economies and to
agricultural resources through processing and manufacturing global integration of production systems. GVCs also present
manufacturing and primary input processing. develop productive capacity for high and sustained economic
activities—implicit in the transition process from a resourced- an unprecedented opportunity for African economies to move
growth, employment opportunities, and substantial poverty
based economy towards an industry- or service-based economy. beyond producing raw materials and build dynamic and
SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES reduction. This commitment is manifested at the sub-
competitive manufacturing sectors capable of processing
regional and regional levels through programs unveiled, for
In the past two decades, a few African countries, including the continent’s abundant minerals and agricultural products.
Special economic zones (SEZs), as designated areas possessing example, by the New Partnership for Africa’s Development
Mauritius, South Africa, and Uganda, have succeeded It is also an opportunity to create sustainable jobs and
special regulations and economic incentives for promoting (NEPAD), Southern African Development Community (SADC),
in structurally transforming their economies. Other stimulate inclusive growth as new markets for value-added
industrialization, come in handy for organizing production East African Community (EAC), and Economic Community
African countries experienced some degree of structural products evolve both in the continent and externally in the
built around processing and manufacturing activities. SEZs Of West African States (ECOWAS) to achieve economic
transformation following different paths and at different industrialized and emerging economies.
have also recently gained increasing attention in Africa. integration through industrialization. African leaders are
speeds. Some countries transformed through low-wage
In the context of economic diversification, SEZs stimulate showing determination to seize emerging opportunities
manufacturing while others transformed through services Though value gains from Africa’s traditional exports tend to be
the agglomeration of new economic activities, particularly to foster industrial development in support of sustainable
or the agricultural sector. Overall, however, Africa has skewed towards developed countries, resulting in Africa having
manufacturing and processing, in a designated location by economic transformation and as a vehicle for economic
experienced a delayed structural transformation. For a limited share of world income generated from GVCs, more and
providing infrastructure, as well as industrial-related services growth and poverty reduction. This is evidenced by a series
instance, labor is not moving out of agriculture to other more countries are employing new strategies to enable better
and facilities. They also represent a great opportunity for of declarations and decisions made at major summits
more productive industrial or services sectors fast enough access to value chains. For instance, Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s
African industry to gain access to capital, skills and technology and ministerial meetings, such as the Action Plan for the
and the share of agriculture in GDP is declining too fast. This largest producer and exporter of cocoa beans, is mobilizing
transfers, as well as backward and forward linkages. In the Accelerated Industrial Development of Africa (AIDA) which
was mainly explained by the lack of inclusive agricultural foreign investment resources to expand local capacities for
context of its development cooperation with Africa, foreign was adopted by African Heads of States and Governments
policies and the non-effective industrialization strategies of processing cocoa into chocolate. This move has attracted three
investors like China, the United States, and European Union at the tenth African Union Summit in Addis Ababa in
most African countries. It is, therefore, crucial for Africa to multinational companies—Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland
countries have initiated and supported the operation of SEZs 2008. At the global level, attention is also focused on the
harness all available opportunities to attain a more dynamic (ADM), and Olam—thus far, placing the country higher up the
in various African countries, including Zambia, Mauritius, challenges of industrial development in Africa as evidenced
growth process. ladder of the global confectionery market estimated to be worth
Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, Tanzania, Algeria, and Botswana. by the adoption of relevant United Nations General Assembly
USD 84 billion. Lesotho, too, has witnessed an expansion in its
African governments have responded by granting favorable resolutions, including one proclaiming an annual ‘Africa
GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS economy in recent years, driven by the growth of its apparel
conditions to foreign investors in the SEZs, which they Industrialization Day’ (AID), and specific programs and
sector. It has benefited from two distinct value chains emanating
believe will create jobs, boost export earnings, and generate activities of The United Nations Industrial Development
The importance of structural transformation for Africa is the from differing investment incentives, production and distribution
technology spillovers that will benefit domestic enterprises Organization (UNIDO), Food and Agriculture Organization of
promise that it holds for a more diversified, inclusive, and networks, and inter-firm linkages between Taiwanese and
and enhance competitiveness. the United Nations (FAO), International Labour Organization
sustained pattern of economic growth. In particular, the South African owned textile firms. By capturing gains from
(ILO), and other specialized agencies of the United Nations.
promotion of value chains is gaining increasing recognition both regional and international value chains, the apparel
FOSTERING TRANSFORMATION
within the realm of private sector development and beyond sector now employs nearly 50 percent of Lesotho’s workforce
as a strategy for helping countries get out of primary and accounts for 18 percent of its GDP, 70 percent of the total
Structural transformation requires innovation to overcome
production and into processing and manufacturing activities. manufacturing production, and 70 percent of total merchandise
deficiencies in infrastructural development. Good
knowledge of the industrial value chains and structures
are prerequisite for an effective transformation of African
A major policy challenge for Africa today
economies. Investing continuously in education, training,
is how to broaden access to economic improvement of skills, and technological innovation is
imperative to prepare the ground for a successful industrial
opportunities for its expanding population,
transformation. Innovation will help build the capacity to
including the most vulnerable groups. Africa produce more sophisticated products with high added
value. In addition, the transition towards an economy
requires structural transformation to propel
based on industry and services cannot meet its targets
it towards inclusive growth.
3
Governance,
Fragility, and
Security
Governance score, Africa, 2013 Number of countries with
Economic growth can only lead to sustainable and equitable development if it improved governance scores
Score/100
is based on a foundation of just, inclusive, accountable, transparent, and efficient Change since 2000
governance, and institutions administered by the capable state. Governments, along Mauritius
77.6
82.9 7.3
Botswana 5.6
with regional and continental institutions, having increasingly understood the vital Cabo Verde 76.7 6.0
Seychelles 75.0 5.5
link between poor governance, fragility, and social unrest. Together, they are taking South Africa 71.3 0.6 46
countries
greater responsibility for strengthening institutions of accountability and the rule of Namibia 69.5 2.3
Ghana 66.8 5.3
law, resolving conflicts, and overcoming fragility, thus fostering economic stability Tunisia 66.0 4.4
Lesotho 61.9 7.7
and sustainable growth. Senegal 61.0 4.3
São Tomé & Príncipe 59.9 3.2 Overall score
59.6
3.1 GOVERNANCE AND CORRUPTION
Zambia 8.6
Benin 58.7 2.5
Morocco 58.0 5.1
Africa’s new economic dynamism could not have happened In recent times, there has also been a major push Rwanda 57.8 10.9
without substantial improvements in governance. Better on transparency in financial governance, to improve Malawi 56.9 5.2
20
Tanzania 56.9 1.4
macroeconomic management and improvements to citizens’ ability to hold their governments to account. The countries
Uganda 56.0 5.5
the business environment have been critical to growth credibility of national budgets has improved, although
Egypt 55.0 0.4
performance. However, poor governance, especially in expenditure controls and internal audit functions remain Mozambique 54.8 2.3
fragile states, remains one of Africa’s most substantial weak. It is estimated that, with more effective institutions, Kenya 53.6 1.5 Safety & Rule of Law
challenges, contributing significantly to poverty, African states could double their tax revenue. Auditor- Gambia 53.6 4.0
inequality, and conflicts. general institutions and parliament public accounts Burkina Faso 53.0 1.2
committees have become increasingly active. Getting Gabon 52.8 6.4

Over the period 2000-2012, the continent has experienced these accountability mechanisms to work effectively is a Algeria 52.5 1.3
overall improvement in its governance, with marked Swaziland 50.8 4.3 35
key goal. If African governments succeed in demonstrating countries
differences between countries and across different to citizens that they are using public revenues more
Mali 50.7 -0.04
Niger 50.4 7.6
indicators. Around 89 percent of African countries have
effectively, it will lead to a virtuous circle: citizens will Liberia 50.3 24.8
improved their capacity to deliver economic opportunity
be more willing to pay taxes but at the same time more Djibouti 48.2 1.7
and human development while 67 percent of countries Participation & Human Rights
determined to hold states to account for how their taxes Sierra Leone 48.0 14.8
made progress in fostering political participation, gender
are spent. Comoros 47.8 6.9
equality, and human rights. Progress in strengthening Ethiopia 47.6 5.1
safety and the rule of law has proved more difficult to Mauritania 47.3 0.7
Corruption, however, continues to be prevalent in many
achieve, with only 40 percent of the countries making Cameroon 47.0 5.2
African countries, with a corrosive effect on growth and 45
progress. Togo 45.8 8.2
poverty reduction. Although Transparency International’s countries
Madagascar 45.7 -11.7
Corruption Perceptions Index records some modest
Africa experienced a wave of democratization starting Libya 45.3 -0.4
improvements in recent years, 90 percent of African Angola 44.5 18.1
in the early 1990s, resulting in a wave of transition to
multi-party politics and elections across the continent. states still rank below 50. A significant part of Africa’s Burundi 43.8 8.8 Sustainable Economic Opportunity
Today, 20 countries in Africa are considered electoral gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to be lost Nigeria 43.4 0.8
to corruption every year, with about USD 1.4 trillion Guinea 43.2 6.2
democracies, compared to only 4 in 1991. There are
Congo 43.0 8.0
now more representative governments, more democratic considered to have been diverted from Africa between
Côte d'Ivoire 40.9 1.8
elections, and more peaceful transitions of power. While the years of 1980 and 2009. Besides stunting economic
growth, corruption carries other indirect costs: children
Equatorial Guinea 40.9 8.8 46
women in government are still under-represented in Guinea-Bissau 37.1 -1.8 countries
most countries, the participation rate of women in drop out of primary school five times more in countries Zimbabwe 35.4 1.5
national-level parliaments has increased to 21 percent where high corruption is prevalent than in those with low Chad 33.0 1.2
in 2013, up from 10 percent in 2000. Progress, however, levels of graft; infant mortality rates are twice as high. Central African Rep. 32.7 3.8
Human Development
varies across the continent. More than 40 percent of While corruption affects everyone, it hurts the poorest Eritrea 31.9 -5.5
Congo, Democratic Rep. 31.3 7.3
legislators are women in Rwanda, Seychelles, Senegal, most by crippling the public services they so badly
Somalia 8.0 -1.7 Improved African Countries
and South Africa, while women represent less than 10 need. Tackling corruption is therefore an integral part of
Improved Fragile States
percent of parliamentarians in Egypt, Comoros, Swaziland, economic and social development. Safety & Rule of Law Sustainable Economic Opportunity
Participation & Human Rights Human Development Others (did not improve)
Nigeria, Republic of Congo, Gambia, Botswana, Benin, and
Democratic Republic of Congo. Source: Mo Ibrahim Foundation
30 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Governance, Fragility, and Security 31

WHAT PEOPLE ARE SAYING ABOUT CORRUPTION IN A SELECTION OF 26 COUNTRIES IN AFRICA
Corruption perceptions index (CPI), Africa, 2013

Perceptions of the extent of corruption in different institutions
Scores range from 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean)
Global Rank Police 4.2

Botswana 30 3.8
Cabo Verde 41
Judiciary
The Police and the
Political parties 3.7
Seychelles 47 judiciary are viewed
Public officials/Civil servants 3.7
Rwanda 49 as the most corrupt
Parliament/Legislature 3.5
Mauritius 52
Education system 3.5
institutions.
Lesotho 55
Namibia 57 Business/Private sector 3.3
Ghana 63 Medical and health 3.3
São Tomé and Príncipe 72
Media 3
South Africa 72
Military 2.9
Senegal 77
NGOs 2.7
Tunisia 77
Swaziland 82 Religious bodies 2.4
Burkina Faso 83
Not at all corrupt Extremely corrupt
Liberia 83
Zambia 83
Malawi 91
Morocco 91 Bribery is everywhere Reason given for paying bribe(s)
Algeria 94
Benin 94
To speed things up 36%
Djibouti 94
Almost one in two people report having paid

Gabon 106 It was the only way to obtain service 31%
Niger 106 As a gift, or to express gratitude 22%
Ethiopia 111
a bribe in the last 12 months when interacting
To get a cheaper service 12%
Tanzania 111 with key public institutions and services.
Egypt 114
59.2 47.9 64.7 49.3
Mauritania 119
Southern East Africa
51.6 Island Coastal
Mozambique 119
Sierra Leone 119 Personal
connections and powerful groups are
Africa Africa countries countries
Togo 123 perceived as corrupting the public administration.

Comoros 127
127
Gambia
40.1 54.0 52.5 51.1
Madagascar 127
Mali 127 Central Africa North Africa West Africa Landlocked
countries
Côte dÍvoire 136
Kenya 136 Over half of the people think their government 6 in 10 people believe that personal contacts
Uganda 140 is largely run by big entities acting in their own and relationships help get things done in the
Cameroon 144 best interests instead of the public good. public sector in African countries.
Central African Republic 144
Nigeria 144
Guinea 150
Angola 153
Congo Republic 154 Perceived changes in the level Perceived effectiveness
Majority of the
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Burundi
154
157
of corruption over the past 2 years of government in fighting corruption people believe that
Zimbabwe 157 their government is
Eritrea 160
People say it increased 51% People say it’s ineffective 53% ineffective in fighting
Chad 163
corruption and that
Equatorial Guinea 163 People say it stayed the same 31% People say it’s neither 25%
Guinea-Bissau 163
corruption is getting
Libya 172 People say it decreased 18% People say it’s effective 21% worse.
South Sudan 173
Sudan 174
Somalia 175
0 20 40 60 80
Reason given for not reporting an incident of corruption
Source: Transparency International
Majority of the people said I am afraid of the consequences 40%
they would be willing to report
It wouldn’t make any difference 40%
an incident of corruption. Only
91% of the countries score below 50. Botswana, with a CPI score of 64, ranks #30 across world 3 out of 10 people said they I do not know where to report 16%
economies, while Somalia, with a score of 8, ranks last. would not do so. Other 4%
Source: Transparency International

3.2 FRAGILITY Burundi, Chad, and Republic of Congo are among nations
on track to meet the target on gender parity in enrollment
curse’ is linked to the risk of violent conflict over resource
rents, greater availability of resources to fund rebellions,
in school while Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, and Sierra Leone and weakened rule of law. Commercial interests vying for
Fragility poses as a major constraint on Africa’s conflict—such as the case of Liberia where gross domestic
are on track to achieve the target on improved access to access to resources can also have a disruptive influence.
development. While Africa is growing rapidly, poor or product dropped by as much as 90 percent in 20 years—
water by 2015. This pattern has been observed for oil, gold, diamonds,
weak governance, chronic poverty, persistent socio- many of them, with peace and stability, are now on the
rare earth minerals, and forestry products, among others.
economic inequality and exclusion, as well as high path of growth and recovery. In 2012 and 2013, fragile
FINANCIAL FLOWS Managing natural resources in a fair and sustainable way
levels of conflict and violence continue to undermine states like Libya, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mozambique, and
will be fundamental to tackle fragility, particularly in
progress in various communities, countries, and regions. Angola were among the fastest growing economies in
Official development assistance (ODA) remains the biggest resource-rich areas.
States experiencing fragility lag behind other African Africa. Average per capita income levels in fragile states
financial inflow, followed by remittances and foreign
states on almost all development indicators, recording, rose from USD 300 in 2005 to USD 333 in 2011. While this
direct investment, for fragile states. Liberia, Burundi, OUTLOOK
on average, significantly higher poverty headcount, is a slower change than in other low-income countries,
Sierra Leone, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique,
higher rates of malnutrition, higher mortality rates, and it has had a noticeable impact on the number of people
São Tomé and Príncipe, Guinea Bissau, Eritrea, Malawi, and A country’s transition from a state of fragility to one of
lower education attainment. This sub-section focuses living on less than USD 1.25 per day, who are concentrated
Rwanda are all amongst the world’s most aid-dependent resilience involves a long process that may take 20 to 40
on man-made fragility drivers, but natural disasters and in fragile states.
countries. However, development aid has fallen by 4 years. While there are still 19 African countries classified
other environmental challenges have also created havoc
percent in real terms in 2012, following a 2 percent fall in as fragile today, some of them will transition from fragility
and caused repeated humanitarian crises in various GOVERNANCE
2011. The continuing global financial crisis and euro zone towards greater resilience by 2030.
countries and regions across the continent, resulting in
turmoil, leading several donor governments to tighten
displacement of people and destruction of livelihoods. The governance indicators for Africa’s fragile states have
their budgets, have attributed to the cause (OECD, 2013). With increasing urbanization, the shrinking of the formal
improved slightly over the years. The Mo Ibrahim index
economy, and weakness of traditional coping mechanisms,
POVERTY AND CONFLICT shows that Africa’s fragile states have also improved their
At the same time, a wave of new natural resource social protection policies and programs must be put in
ability to create sustainable economic opportunity and
discoveries across the continent, from the Rift Valley to place. Policies and programs that are pro-jobs and pro-
Today, around a third of African countries, home to some promote human development. As Africa’s fragile states
the Gulf of Guinea, has the potential to transform African poor; support of education and proper skill development;
200 million people, are classified as fragile and are home move towards a path of growth and recovery, stronger
economies. International capital is flooding into Africa’s actionable governance; investment in ‘soft’ and ‘hard’
to a growing share of Africa’s poor that are susceptible institutions of governance (domestic and regional) will
resource-rich countries. In 2010, revenues from the export infrastructure to facilitate private sector development,
to instability with potential consequences beyond their reinforce the rule of law, facilitate transparency and
of oil and minerals were eight times the total value of regional integration, and global connectivity; and
borders. In these countries and regions, economic growth accountability, and help resolve conflicts peacefully.
development assistance. If used well, these revenues sufficient financial flow, such as a fair share and
has not always led to more and better jobs or to increased
could provide a route out of fragility for many African sustainable returns from natural resources, would help
income opportunities for a vast majority of the poor, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
countries, helping to close Africa’s infrastructure gap and strengthen fragile states and promote inclusive growth.
particularly women and youth. Extreme inequality and
extend public services. Yet natural resource wealth can By managing the underlying political, security, economic,
social exclusion also increase the states’ vulnerability to Various fragile states are making slow but steady progress
also magnify fragility. The greater the share of primary and environmental drivers of fragility and building
conflict, which, in turn, reverses development gains, limits on some of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
commodity exports in gross domestic product, the higher resilient states and societies, sustainable development
governance capacity, and destroys infrastructure. Eight African countries—five of which are classified as
the risk of instability. The infamous ‘natural resource and growth can be achieved.
fragile—are among the 20 fragile states worldwide that
ECONOMIC GROWTH have recently met one or more of the MDG targets. Guinea,
for example, has already met the target to halve extreme
Despite tough challenges posed by fragility, progress is poverty or the number of people living on less than USD Fragility in Africa is a product of dramatic
possible. While various fragile states have lost ground 1.25 a day) while Comoros is among six fragile states social, economic, and environmental change.
in terms of economic growth during earlier periods of that have met the target on improved access to water;
▪▪ 19 of the 35 world’s fragile states are in Africa. ▪▪ One in six fragile states depends on minerals or fuel for
Fragile states lag behind on almost all development indicators ▪▪ These African states are home to more than 200 75% or more of their exports.
million people, approximately 20% of the continent’s ▪▪ 77% of all post-Cold War international crises have
50% 20% 18% population. involved at least one unstable or fragile state.
higher malnutrition higher child mortality lower primary completion rates ▪▪ Today almost half of fragile states are middle-income, ▪▪ On average, development assistance remains the
a complete shift from a decade ago when most were biggest financial flow into fragile states, followed by
low-income countries. remittances and foreign direct investment. However, ¾
of foreign direct investment goes to only 7 countries,
▪▪ Lack of economic opportunities and high unemployment
most of which are resource-rich.
are key sources of fragility.
Source: African Development Bank Source: African Development Bank

The annual global cost of conflict
is estimated at $100 billion.
3.3 SECURITY
Conflict in Africa has constantly changed in response to conflict breaking out in South Sudan. Lack of economic
shifts in the global geo-strategic positioning of world opportunity, the rising cost of living, prolonged social
powers and to local conditions. In the twenty years to 1989, exclusion, competition for natural resources, and extreme
there were an average of 12 conflicts a year in sub-Saharan income inequality were among the main drivers of popular
Africa to which the state was a party. An average of 17,000 discontent.
Africans lost their lives each year as direct casualties of
these state-based conflicts. The end of 1980’s saw a steady Conflict and political instability can have a dramatic
increase in civil wars characterized by non-state violence, impact on development performance. For every three years
involving contending armed groups or communal violence. a country is affected by major violence (battle deaths or
Though leading to fewer deaths than before, intra-state excess deaths from homicides equivalent to a major war),
conflicts are often more deadly than state-based conflicts, poverty reduction lags behind by 2.7 percentage points.
as they typically target non-combatant civilians, and are Domestic unrest and escalations of violence also suppress
characterized by massive human rights violations and investment and disrupt public services, erode institutional
atrocities. capacity, and lead to a neglect of essential infrastructure
and rapid degradation of transport and energy networks.
Between 1989 and 2013, Africa experienced more than This further isolates the population, creating pockets of
500 non-state conflicts, resulting in over 80,000 direct exclusion. Girls and women suffer disproportionately from
casualties and millions of refugees. In 2011, North Africa the effects of conflict, both as its direct victims and through
became the global epicenter of social upheaval and reduced economic opportunities. The effects of conflict also
political change: long-entrenched regimes in Egypt, Libya, spill across national borders, disrupting trade, generating
and Tunisia have collapsed; and major protests have broken refugee flows, and spreading instability through trade in
out in Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, and Sudan. The small arms. It is estimated that conflict in one country can
year 2012 marked a record high in armed conflicts since reduce growth by half a percentage point in neighboring
1945. Conflict in Democratic Republic of Congo escalated, countries.
violence by militant groups increased in Nigeria, tensions
resurfaced between Sudan and South Sudan, and the Unless Africa can find a way to promote inclusive growth,
Fragile states lag behind on almost all development indicators
ongoing Somali civil war persisted. The collapse of the the inequalities may give rise to new instability. Establishing
government of Mali after two decades of political stability security and justice is a precondition for progress in all
50% 20% 18%
deemed exemplary in 2012, revealing Mali’s fragility and other areas. Persistent insecurity—including armed conflict,
institutional weaknesses.
higher Likewise the rebellion
malnutrition higherinchild political violence, violent
the mortality lower criminal
primaryactivity, and interpersonal
completion rates
Central African Republic spotlights the substantial risk to violence—deters political participation, dampens economic
political instability and tendency for recovering states to activity, and hampers the delivery of basic services. The
slip and slide back into conflict. Africa became the most provision of security and justice, and hence the promotion
politically volatile region in 2012, with major democratic of inclusive growth, is therefore one of the most basic of
breakthroughs in some countries, and coups, insurgencies, state-building goals and essential to building the legitimacy
and authoritarian crackdowns in others. This trend continued of the state.
in 2013, with political violence erupting in Guinea and civil
The annual global cost of conflict

is estimated at $100 billion.

4
Regional
Integration,
Trade, and
Investment
Africa is emerging as an attractive investment destination and a key market for Foreign direct investment inflow, Africa, 2012
goods and services. With a working population of 600 million set to double by 2040, Million USD
overtaking both China and India, and an improving business environment, Africa is Nigeria 7,101
poised to become the world’s next emerging economy. To turn its economic gains
Mozambique 5,238
South Africa 4,644
into sustainable growth and shared prosperity, Africa's public and private sectors Ghana
Congo, Dem. Rep. 2,892
3,295
must work together to connect the continent's markets, deepen regional integration, Morocco 2,842
Egypt, Arab Rep. 2,798
and adopt reforms that enhance competitiveness. Congo, Rep. 2,758
Sudan 2,488
Equatorial Guinea 2,115
4.1 AFRICA AS THE NEW FRONTIER

Uganda 1,721
Tanzania 1,707
Algeria 1,602
Tunisia 1,554
Over the last several decades, Africa has opened up to the world Many African countries are taking advantage of this robust
Liberia 1,354
as never before. While corruption and political instability still growth by issuing bonds on international markets, which Mauritania 1,204
impede progress, many countries have undergone dramatic has created strong momentum that is expanding and Zambia 1,066
social and economic changes. With improved governance, better developing the continent’s nascent financial markets. The Madagascar 895
Niger 793
macroeconomic policies, increasing urbanization, an expanding number of stock exchanges has increased from 8 in 2002 Gabon 702
and better educated workforce, and growing disposable income, to 29 in 2013, with market capitalization across the five Guinea 605
Africa is becoming increasingly attractive to investors. Sierra Leone 548
leading exchanges tripling over the same period.
Cameroon 526
Côte d'Ivoire 478
In 2012, Africa’s foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow grew to
While significant investment opportunities are being offered Zimbabwe 400
USD 50 billion, with much of the investment going to Africa’s
by the continent, sustained growth will be underpinned by Mauritius 361
extractive sector. FDI flows to the service sector—in particular Namibia 357
economic integration at the sub-regional, national, and
the finance, wholesale and retail commerce, transportation, Senegal 338
regional levels, and by implication into the global economy. Chad 323
telecommunications, and manufacturing sectors—have also
expanded, indicating that the greater spending power of Policies that support flexible markets, private investment, Mali 310
Botswana 293
African consumers is attracting investors as well. The growth and the capacity of businesses to compete in global Ethiopia 279
in FDI has in turn led to stimulation of local entrepreneurship, markets will be crucial to raising productivity and attracting Kenya 259
expansion of local markets, and facilitation of skill creation investments. By addressing impediments to cross-border Lesotho 198
Togo 166
through backward linkages. Remittances from the diaspora investment linkages, Africa will be able to fully benefit from Rwanda 160
also represent a substantial form of resources for the continent. its increasing global economic importance. Benin 159
Malawi 129
Share of consumer-related FDI greenfield projects 2008-2012 Djibouti 110

Somalia 107
% of total value of FDI greenfield projects in Africa Swaziland 90
Cabo Verde 74
Eritrea 74
25 Central African Republic 71
Burkina Faso 40
Business
Business friendly policies,
friendly Gambia, The 34
20 São Tomé and Príncipe 22
policies, increasing
increasing urbanisation, Comoros 17
urbanization, a
a growing growing
and better Guinea-Bissau 16
15 and better educated Seychelles 12
educated workforce,
workforce, and growing Burundi 0.6
10 consumergrowing
and spending consumer
are
creating opportunities
spending for
are creating 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
5
manufacturing and services
opportunities for
Source: World Bank
industries to
manufacturing grow
and. services
0
industries to grow InInrecent
recentyears,
years,Africa
Africahas
hasmade
madegreat
greatstrides
stridesinin developing
developing itsits private
private sector;
sector; since
since 2000,
2000, foreign
foreign
2006 2009 2010 2011 2012 directinvestment
direct investmenthashasincreased
increasedfivefold, $50
fivefold,toto$50 billion
billion last last
year,year, nearly
nearly a sixth
a sixth of which
of which wentwent
to
Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
top recipient Nigeria. to top recipient Nigeria
40 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Regional Integration, Trade, and Investment 41

4.2 TRADE Intra-regional trade
%
Supported by a rising global demand for oil, natural gas, food, In addition, Africa’s trade remains overly dependent on a narrow
minerals, and other resources, Africa continues to not only attract range of natural resources and commodities. Over the last four Africa 11.2
12.4
investments but benefit from export-led growth. From 2000 to decades, fuels and mining products account for over half of Africa’s The share of Intra-African trade
2012, Africa’s exports have quadrupled, from USD 148 billion exports, compared with only about 10 percent in developing Association
26.0
remains low compared to intra-
of Southeast
a year to USD 641 billion. While developed countries like the Asia and advanced economies. Indeed, when broken down to Asian Nations
23.5 regional trade in other parts of
United States, Italy, France, Spain, United Kingdom, Netherlands, the country level, the share of mineral products accounts for the world; unlocking Africa’s full
Germany, and Japan still dominate African trade, recent trends more than 30 percent of total exports in more than half of all European Union
56.3
61.8 economic potential would require
indicate that developing economic regions—with China, India, and African economies, and for over 90 percent in a few cases. High economic integration—globally,
Brazil leading the pack—are driving the growth in African trade dependence on commodity exports can lead to fluctuation of North American
48.5 regionally, and between rural and
Free Trade
and will continue to do so over the next 50 years. In particular, trade flows with commodity prices, which may have a negative Agreement
33.7 urban areas.
United States’ share of African exports declined from 17 percent effect on a country’s growth. Government finances also fluctuate 0 20 40 60 80 100
in 2000 to 12 percent in 2012. Trade with emerging economies, with commodity prices, possibly jeopardizing governments’ fiscal
Exports Imports
on the other hand, has increased over the same period: with stability and leeway. In sub-Saharan Africa alone, for example, 10
Africa’s share of exports to China growing from 3 percent to economies are fiscally dependent on natural resources. In contrast,
15 percent, India from 3 percent to 6 percent, and Brazil from another set of countries—including Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia,
2 percent to 3 percent. China is currently Africa’s largest trading and Malawi—are highly dependent on agricultural exports. While ▪▪ Investment in infrastructure for connectivity is important, ▪ ▪ African countries are losing out on billions of
partner, having surpassed the United States in recent years. This the resource-rich countries have benefited from a fivefold increase but policy coordination can also facilitate regional trade. dollars in potential trade every year because of a
shift in global trade is expected to lead to a greater integration in trade to China and other emerging economies, the lack of fragmented regional market and because cross-
▪ ▪ For African countries, two inter-related challenges
into a globalized economy. economic integration means that the benefits of trade are narrowly
are critical: to diversify the export base, to reduce border production networks that have spurred
concentrated. Against this backdrop, export diversification—both
vulnerability stemming from commodity price economic dynamism in other regions, especially
Africa has maintained its share of global trade at 3.1 percent in goods and services and also across geographies—is key to
swings, and to tighten regional integration. East Asia, have yet to materialize in Africa.
in 2012, up from 2.5 percent in 2005, though this represents a promoting sustainable and inclusive growth.
slower progress than other developing regions. Intra-African
trade has also increased from its low level, more than doubling Efforts to foster trade will be critical for Africa to diversify its
over the past seven years. If informal cross-border trade were economies and increase the continent’s overall competitiveness. 4.3 REGIONAL INTEGRATION
included, this figure would be higher. However, with intra-African Going forward, more effort will be required to align policies
trade reporting at just USD 147 billion in 2012 (representing across the broad range of regional trade and economic Regional integration is vital to the structural transformation of separate national markets, and vast infrastructure deficit, and
only 12 percent of all African trade)—a figure relatively modest zones. Public and private investment in the institutions and Africa’s economies. It is essential to boosting competitiveness, has in turn held back Africa’s share of global trade.
compared to intra-regional trade in other parts of the world, it infrastructure will be needed to drive down the costs of increasing productivity, and improving living standards. It
is clear that much faster progress is needed to remove trade connecting people and markets. Increased cross-border trade concerns not just promoting increased intra-African trade flows, LABOR MOBILITY
but also financial and monetary integration, free movement of
barriers and create larger markets. With domestic demand for can lead to a virtuous cycle of more competition in domestic
labor and services, and the building of the soft infrastructure Labor mobility is another component of regional integration.
food and other products growing rapidly, increased intra-African markets that can lower the costs of goods and services while
necessary to integrate national markets. Many of the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) have
trade would provide great opportunities for African businesses if increasing their variety, thereby generating more economic
developed harmonized systems for managing migration, but
they can provide quality, low-cost goods to compete with foreign activity. This, in turn, has the potential to create successful TRADE INTEGRATION these are yet to be widely implemented by member states. While
imports. backward and forward linkages within the economy. the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has
Over the past decade, Africa’s longstanding commitment to introduced visa-free entry for up to 90 days across its member
Export (Billion USD) Share of World Total Share of World Total regional economic integration has moved closer to reality. states and the Union du Maghreb Arabe (Arab Maghreb Union)
in 2012 (%) in 2000 (%) in 2012 The Regional Economic Communities (RECs) have pushed allows for free movement between Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia,
a number of ambitious initiatives, supported by stronger as well as visa-free travel between Algeria and Tunisia, most
China...............................93.24..................................... 3.2...................................... 14.6 institutions and policy frameworks at the continental level. The regions still have restrictive visa requirements between their
While developed rate of investment in regional infrastructure connections has member states. Smaller countries are often weary of making
United States................75.30................................... 17.1...................................... 11.8 countries still dominate increased and African countries have undertaken far-reaching commitments in this area, fearing that their labor markets will
Italy.................................44.41...................................11.0.........................................6.9 African trade, recent regulatory reforms to facilitate trade. be flooded with newcomers.
India................................40.48..................................... 2.8.........................................6.3 trends indicate that
France.............................38.87..................................... 8.5.........................................6.1 developing economic Between 2005 and 2012, intra-African trade more than FINANCIAL INTEGRATION
regions are driving the doubled, from USD 62 billion to USD 147 billion. If informal
Spain...............................34.22..................................... 6.5.........................................5.3 cross-border trade were taken into account, the figure would
growth in Africa trade Integration of financial markets has made some important
United Kingdom..........28.48..................................... 6.2.........................................4.4 probably be much higher. However, half of intra-African trade progress. The front runners are the two Communauté
and will continue to
Netherlands..................26.68..................................... 3.2.........................................4.2 takes place within just one region, the Southern African Financière Africaine (African Financial Community) monetary
do so over the next 50
Development Community (SADC), where South Africa trades unions, in West Africa with eight member states and in Central
Germany.........................24.48..................................... 5.7.........................................3.8 years. with its neighbors. Limited trade integration is a reflection of Africa with six. The Common Monetary Area (CMA) comprising
Japan...............................16.34..................................... 2.5.........................................2.6 the continent’s dispersed geography, its fragmentation into South Africa, Lesotho, and Swaziland is another important
Brazil...............................15.96..................................... 1.9.........................................2.5

stepping stone to financial integration. Many African countries view to converge with CEMAC’s. The Economic Community Of
have undertaken reforms to develop their financial institutions West African States (ECOWAS) is working with the West African
Africa’s progress on regional integration
and strengthen their financial markets. The rapid spread Monetary Institute, the West African Economic and Monetary Year of Free trade Customs Common Monetary
Regional Economic Communities (RECs)
of cross-border banking investments and the emergence Union, and the Central Bank of West African States towards the establishment area union market union
of Africa-wide lenders indicate that financial markets are creation of the ECOWAS Monetary Union by 2020. Furthermore,
becoming increasingly integrated. However, financial flows are the adoption in early 2012 by the African Union Summit of an Soutern African Development Community (SADC) 1992
still well below their potential and a number of challenges, Action Plan for Boosting Intra-African Trade and the planned East African Community (EAC) 2000
including weak financial infrastructure and limited capital establishment of a Continental Free Trade Area by 2017, with Economic Community Of West African States (ECOWAS) 1975
market development, still need to be addressed. the goal to boost intra-regional trade by 25 to 30 percent in
the next decade, will provide a platform for governments to Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) 1994
Some RECs have signed agreements to promote investment press ahead with opening national markets and creating trade Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) 1983
and capital flows, in support of the regional integration opportunities. Arab Maghreb Union (UMA). 1989
agenda. The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa
Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD) 1998
(COMESA) Common Investment Area and the Southern African MEETING CROSS-BORDER CHALLENGES
Development Community (SADC) Investment and Finance Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) 1986
Protocol are prominent regional instruments promoting Like all world regions, Africa faces a series of cross-border Established Envisaged Non-envisaged
financial integration. At the continental level, the African challenges that can be addressed only through regional Established Envisaged Non-envisaged
Union (AU) is working towards the establishment of three pan- collaboration. These include adapting to climate change,
African financial institutions: the African Investment Bank, the managing regional water resources, and supporting regional
African Central Bank, and the African Monetary Fund. While labor markets through the development of networks of Consolidating regional integration initiatives is key for success
data on intra-African investment flows are scarce, the available higher education institutes. Such challenges require both
evidence suggests that they are concentrated in four major enhancement of national capacity and inter-governmental CFA ECCAS UMA IG
sectors: mining, quarrying, and petroleum; finance; business structures to facilitate joint initiatives and shared investments. CFA ECCAS UMA IGAD
Algeria Som
services; and transport, storage, and communications. There There is always a risk, however, that regional needs will lose Somalia
is considerable unrealized potential in other sectors, held out to urgent national priorities. UEMOA Algeria Morocco
back by small national markets and a lack of strong national UEMOA CEMAC Morocco São Tomé Mauritania
commitment to regional integration arrangements. Most intra- CEMACBenin São Tomé Mauritania and Príncipe Tunisia Libya
Overall, there is still a great deal to be done before the vision of Burkina Faso and Príncipe Burundi Tunisia Libya Dji
Benin
African foreign direct investment goes to finance mergers and an economically integrated Africa can become a reality. There Cameroon Djibouti Er
Burkina Faso Burundi
Côte d'Ivoire
acquisitions, rather than greenfield investments. This suggests is no question that Africa’s leaders recognize the importance Cameroon
Guinea-Bissau Central African Republic Eritrea Eth
Côte d'Ivoire
that intra-African foreign direct investment might provide of regional integration to sustainable development. But the Guinea-Bissau Central African Republic
Mali Chad Ethiopia South
attractive opportunities to countries privatizing state firms or structures and processes required to transform this commitment Mali Chad Niger Congo South Sudan Su
seeking to increase output from existing ones. into sustained action will need to be strengthened. Niger Congo Senegal Equatorial Guinea Angola Sudan
Senegal Equatorial Guinea
Togo Gabon
Angola Dem. Rep. of the Congo
CONSOLIDATING REGIONAL INTEGRATION Promoting the free movement of goods, services, labor, and Togo Gabon Dem. Rep. of the Congo
INITIATIVES capital requires investments at a number of levels. First,

it calls for the development of adequate ‘hard’ or physical Burundi Ke
There is no shortage of ambitious regional integration infrastructure, including regional transport links and energy EAC Tanzania
Burundi Kenya Rwanda Ug
initiatives. In fact, among the world’s developing regions, Africa and telecommunications networks, together with institutional ECOWAS
EAC Tanzania
Rwanda Uganda
has the highest concentration of economic integration and arrangements for their management and maintenance. Second, ECOWAS
Cabo Verde
cooperation agreements. Almost all 54 countries belong to it requires a ‘soft’ or institutional infrastructure to facilitate
Cabo Verde Liberia
at least one regional grouping and about half belong to two cross-border transactions and allow the integration of national
Liberia
or more. This overly complex regional architecture comes at a markets. This includes dismantling certain regulatory barriers Malawi Mauritius
Comoros Réu
price, imposing conflicting requirements on countries that are to trade and harmonizing essential policies and institutions Malawi Mauritius Zambia Madagascar
Comoros Réunion
members of more than one Regional Economic Communities among trading partners. There is also a third dimension, which Zambia Madagascar Zimbabwe Seychelles
(RECs). consists of joint action to address cross-border challenges of Zimbabwe Seychelles
WAMZ IO
a regional or continental nature, such as water management,
WAMZ IOC
In view of such limitations, there has been a strong interest climate change adaptation, cross-border health issues, and Gambia
SACU
in rationalizing the mandates of the RECs. One such initiative other areas benefiting the region as a whole. Gambia Ghana
SACU
is the Tripartite Free Trade Agreement (FTA), first launched in Ghana Guinea SADC COM
2008 and currently in its last stage of negotiations. The FTA, The time is now ripe for an acceleration of progress. The Guinea SADC
Nigeria CMA COMESA
expected to be completed in 2014, will establish an integrated search for ways to overcome trade obstacles has engaged Nigeria Sierra Leone CMA
market covering 26 countries in eastern and southern Africa, African governments and their development partners for years. Sierra Leone Lesotho Swaziland
Namibia
with a combined population of around 600 million people and Political commitment will be required to translate these trade Lesotho Swaziland
Namibia South Africa
a total gross domestic product of USD 1 trillion. In Central Africa, agendas into sound policy and regulatory reforms to maximize
South Africa
two resource rich RECs, Central African Economic and Monetary the benefits for the people and to implement them effectively.
Community (CEMAC) and Economic Community of Central In the coming years, as these efforts demonstrate the huge Botswana
African States (ECCAS), are planning a merger, and ECCAS has gains available from regional cooperation, African countries Botswana
already begun to modify its rules of origins and tariffs with a would expect to see the pace of integration accelerate. Mozambique
Mozambique

5
Infrastructure
Development
Infrastructure development is a key driver for progress across the African continent
▪▪ Africa’s vast infrastructure deficit is a constraint on its ▪▪ Key challenges will be to supply the burgeoning
and a critical enabler for productivity and sustainable economic growth. It contributes growth, but also an opportunity to leapfrog to new, more population with reliable electricity, affordable housing,
significantly to human development, poverty reduction, and the attainment of the efficient technologies
and transport infrastructure, though these industries will
▪▪ As Africa becomes more urbanized, public goods
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Investment in infrastructure accounts also create new jobs.
will become easier and cheaper to deliver to a more
for over half of the recent improvement in economic growth in Africa and has the geographically concentrated population.
potential to achieve even more.
5.1 DEVELOPING INFRASTRUCTURE FOR GROWTH 5.2 ENERGY

Strong infrastructure is a crucial factor for productivity and But Africa also has a unique opportunity to develop its Power demand will increase 93 percent between today and Yet Africa has huge energy reserves. If Africa reinvested just
growth. For Africa, the need for adequate infrastructure— infrastructure in a sustainable manner. Compared to more 2035, yet a lack of affordable and reliable energy may pose as 5 percent of its oil and coal export revenue, it could achieve
secure energy, efficient transport, reliable communication developed regions, Africa could leapfrog to new, sound a challenge. While improving, the household electrification modern energy for all by 2030. Africa also has enormous
systems, resilient sanitation, and affordable housing— technologies, drawing on the best innovations from around rate in Africa stands at just 43 percent, leaving 600 million potential for clean and affordable energy. There is vast
is particularly apparent. While the continent has seen the world. Developing adequate and efficient infrastructure people and 10 million small- and medium-sized businesses hydropower potential in Central and East Africa, barely 10
tremendous economic growth over the past years, serious will also assist African economies to increase productivity,
without access to power. There is also a marked urban/rural percent of which is currently tapped. East Africa has large
infrastructural shortcomings that have been hampering especially in manufacturing and service delivery. This in
divide, with electrification rate recorded at 65 percent and geothermal energy potential, while North Africa, South
business growth, service delivery, trade, and investment, turn will create more jobs, increase attractive investment
as well as Africa’s progress in inclusive and sustainable opportunities, and encourage the efficient use of natural 28 percent respectively. In Africa, nearly 700 million people Africa, and the Horn of Africa offer favorable conditions for
development, continue to impact negatively on the region’s resources. Improved infrastructure will also contribute to live without clean cooking facilities. Around two-thirds of wind and solar energy. With far less invested in conventional
competitiveness and constrain the full achievement of the social development in the areas of health and education the population continue to burn biomass for fuel, which energy generation than other continents, Africa has the
continent’s development. Inadequate water and sanitation and reduce societal inequalities through a more equitable poses both health and environmental hazards and requires potential to leapfrog over old technologies and become
infrastructure is costing Africa the equivalent of 5 percent distribution of national wealth. time-consuming foraging by women and children. The a global leader in renewable energy. Projections for
of GDP, high transport costs add 75 percent to the price of average cost for electricity in African countries is also three electrification rates indicate a steady rising trend in the
African goods, and about 30 countries have chronic power A development agenda for Africa should, therefore, focus times as high as in United States and Europe. Households upcoming three decades, to around 70 percent in 2040,
outages. Together, underdeveloped infrastructure has been on the challenges and opportunities presented in various and businesses that do have access to power often face providing access to 800 million more people.
estimated to shave off at least 2 percent of Africa’s annual infrastructure areas. intermittent power outages as well.
growth.
All African Africa’s Poorest Developing

World
Countries Countries Countries
65%
Electricity Coverage, % of population...................................................43%.................... 31%......................77%.....................82%
28%
Access to an all-season road, % of rural population.........................43%.................... 35%......................67%.....................69%
43%
Mobile Penetration Rate, % of population...........................................80%....................... -.........................89%.....................96%
Improved Water, % of population...........................................................68%.................... 59%......................87%.....................89%

Power demand will Household Electricity coverage Nearly 700 million
Improved Sanitation, % of population..................................................40%.................... 28%......................57%.....................64%
increase 93% between electrification rate ranges from 65% in people live without
People living in slum conditions, % of urban population................50%....................... -.........................33%........................ - today and 2035. in Africa stands at just urban areas to 28% clean cooking facilities.
43%, leaving 600 in rural areas.
Source: African Development Bank, World Bank Group, International Energy Agency, International Telecommunication Union, TA Telecom, World Health Organization, United
Nations Children’s Fund, and United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
million people without
access to electricity.
For Africa, the need for adequate infrastructure—secure energy, efficient transport, reliable
communication systems, resilient sanitation, and affordable housing—is particularly apparent.
70%
30 40
48 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Infrastructure Development 49
2020
increase 93% between electrification rate ranges from 65% in people live without
today and 2035. in Africa stands at just urban areas to 28% clean cooking facilities.
43%, leaving 600 in rural areas.
million people without
access to electricity.
severe traffic congestion. Road safety is also an issue, with road Some countries are making good progress. Ethiopia, for
fatalities resulting in 225,000 deaths every year—about one- example, has reduced the average distance to an all-weather
70% fifth of total fatalities from road crashes worldwide. As the size road from 21 kilometers in 1997 to 12.4 kilometers in 2012, and
of the middle-class population increases, more automobiles access to an all-weather road is said to have decreased poverty
will be purchased and improvements in road safety need to by 6.9 percent and increased food consumption by nearly 17
be stepped up. Safety Nigeria measures include the introduction percent. Senegal,84.5
too, has embarked on an ambitious program
30 40
(where not already Ethiopia
in existence) of speed limits, drink-driving 65
of infrastructure development, which involves these
the construction
Together,
Democratic Republic of Congo 61.7
laws, compulsory seatbelt use and child constraints, and the of a 32-kilometer toll highway that will link Dakar to Diamnadio
Tanzania
wearing of helmets for motor cyclists. There should also be
39.3 countries account for
in the western part of the country. Cross-border corridors are
2020 annual safety checks
Kenya
for vehicles over a certain
33.6
age (e.g. 3-5 65% of theimportant
also being used to link markets—particularly people for
Uganda 29.7
years) to ensure their Sudan
road-worthiness. Such
24.7
measures landlocked countries—and enhance
will intra-African
who lack access trade.
to The
require greater investments and regulation,
Mozambique 19.1 especially in the Trans-Africa Highway (Cairo–Dakar) is the most ambitious
Two-thirds of the population continue Projections for electrification rates indicate set-up phases.Madagascar 18.4 road network on the continent: itelectricity
comprises ninein Africa.
interlinked
Malawi 14.2 highways with a total length of 56,683 kilometers. Other
to burn biomass for fuel, which poses both a steady rising trend in the upcoming three
Investment rates in transport infrastructure have been 60 planned or80ongoing regional projects include the Abidjan–
decades, to around 70% in 2040, providing
0 20 40 100
health and environmental hazards and requires increasing, thanks to major continental initiatives such as the Ouagadougou–Bamako Transport corridor, connecting Côte
access to 800 million more people.
Population without access to electricity
time-consuming foraging by women Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA). d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, and Mali.
and children.
African countries with the largest population without access to electricity 90% 225,000
53%
Million
Nigeria 84.5
80%
Ethiopia 65
Together, these
Democratic Republic of Congo 61.7
Tanzania 39.3 countries account for
Kenya
Uganda 29.7
33.6
65% of the people
Sudan 24.7 who lack access to
Mozambique 19.1
electricity in Africa.
Roads are the main 53% of the roads are Less than half of Road safety is also an
Madagascar 18.4
mode of transport, unpaved, isolating Africa’s rural issue, with road
Malawi 14.2
0 20 40 60 80 100
carrying at least 80% people from basic population has access fatalities resulting in
of goods and 90% education, health to an all-season road. 225,000 deaths every
of passengers. services, transport year—about one-fifth
Source: African Development Bank and International Energy Agency
corridors, trade hubs, of total fatalities from
and economic road crashes worldwide.
5.3 TRANSPORTATION
90% 225,000 opportunities.
53%
Reliable transport infrastructure, in all four subsectors— A significant percentage of Africa’s road network is unpaved, Paved roads in selected African cities
roads, railways, air transport, and ports—is an essential isolating people from basic education, health services,
80
component of all countries’ competitiveness. It is transport corridors, trade hubs, and economic opportunities.
%
particularly crucial for landlocked countries, for which it Moreover, access to the road network is uneven, with rural
Meters per 1,000 population
City
84,000 km Paved Roads
is a prerequisite to opening up production zones. Reliable areas largely underserved. This unequal access makes the
flow of goods and services to and from rural areas difficult Abidjan.......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 346
transport must be in place for companies to import and
Roads
export are thetomain
goods, 53%
fill orders, and of thesupplies.
to obtain roads are Less than half
and expensive. Maintenance
of of
Roadthe safety
road network
is alsoisanalso Conakry......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 174
inadequate, and when done often inefficient. Further Dakar............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 467
mode of transport, unpaved, isolating Africa’s rural
complicating the issue, the roadissue,
networkwith road countries
in various Dares Salaam............................................................................................................................................................................................... 150
carrying at least 80% people from basic
ROADS population
continues to has
sufferaccess fatalities
from vehicle resulting
overloading, causinginroad Outdated infrastructure and limited maintenance In total, Africa counted 84,000 kilometers of
Kampala........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 225
of goods and 90% education, health surfaces
to to prematurely
an all-season road.degrade225,000
and resulting in reduced
deaths every have undermined the effectiveness of railways rail track, for a surface of about 30 million
Kinshasa......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 63
Although roads are the predominant mode of transport construction life span and high maintenance costs.
of
inpassengers.
Africa—carrying at least services,
80 percent transport
of goods and year—about one-fifth across Africa. square kilometers, most of it in Southern and400
Lagos.............................................................................................................................................................................................................
Average Sample in African low-income countries............................................................................................................................
Northern Africa. 318
90 percent of passengers—major corridors, trade
deficits hubs,
exist in its Despite having fewer vehicles onofitstotal fatalities
road than from
any other region, Average Developing World...................................................................................................................................................................1,000
infrastructure throughout theand economic
continent. the underdevelopment of the road crashes worldwide.
road network has resulted in
opportunities. Source: African Development Bank and Commonwealth Business Council
84,000 km
Mozambique 19.1
electricity in Africa.
Madagascar 18.4
Malawi 14.2
0 20 40 60 80 100
RAIL
90% 225,000 6 700 000
53%
Of all the transportation modes, rail networks are the least Nonetheless, the African rail system has the potential for
developed in Africa, with very few additions since colonial expansion and to act as a catalyst for regional integration, trade,
GDP
1
times. Outdated infrastructure and limited maintenance and economic development. Inefficiencies and inadequacy in the
80
have undermined the effectiveness of railways across
Africa,%resulting in a significant reduction in usable track.
railroad network are increasingly being addressed by countries
in recent years. For instance, Zambia has been working on $ 67 800 000 000
improving the operational efficiency of the Zambia Railways / 270 000
In total, Africa counted 84,000 kilometers of rail track, for a surface and the TAZARA Railway. There are also plans on extending the
53% of the roads are
of about 30 million square kilometers, most of it in Southern and
Roads are the main Less than half of
Zambia Railways network to the Botswana Railways network via
Road safety is also an
Northern Africa. Thirteen sub-Saharan African countries have no
mode of transport,
the planned Kazungula Bridge. Air transport supports 6.7 million In 2012, airlines based in Africa In 2012, African airlines
operational rail networks, while theunpaved, isolating
spatial density of operational Africa’s rural issue, with road
jobs and $67.8 billion in GDP carried 70 million had one accident
carrying
rail ranges from 1 to 80%
at least people per
6 route-kilometers from basicsquare
thousand population has
It is also notable thataccess fatalities
African exports resulting
are largely in
bulky primary
kilometers.
of goodsThe and 90%density foreducation,
network most African countries
health ranges commodities,
to which could
an all-season 225,000
road.be transported moredeaths
efficiently and
every in Africa. passengers. (with a Western-built
from 30 to 50 kilometers per million people, with a few countries
of passengers. services, transport year—about one-fifth
at lower cost by rail than by road. Rail development therefore jet aircraft) for every
(Gabon, Botswana, and South Africa) having network densities holds some opportunities for investors. Investments in 270,000 flights.
of more than 400 kilometers per corridors, trade
million people. Thesehubs,
network of total
associated activities like locomotive fatalities
building, from
logistics, and 2006 Globally, the industry
2010
densities are very low compared toand economic
Europe’ s range of 200 to 1,000 communications also exist. road crashes worldwide.
kilometers per million people. opportunities. average was 1 accident
for every 5 million
flights.
The most pressing problem for Runway accidents accounted for

84,000 km African aviation is safety. about a quarter of the
accidents during 2006-2010.
Source: African Development Bank and International Air Transport Association
Outdated infrastructure and limited maintenance In total, Africa counted 84,000 kilometers of PORTS
have undermined the effectiveness of railways rail track, for a surface of about 30 million
Seaports too are badly in need of investment and regulatory about half of the coastal countries that operate port facilities
across Africa. square kilometers, most of it in Southern and reforms to remove the bottlenecks and chronic congestion introducing sectoral legislation and regulatory reforms, new
Northern Africa. problems. Whereas Africa operates 64 ports, many of investment opportunities will present themselves.
them are poorly equipped and uneconomically operated.
50%
Source: African Development Bank and Commonwealth Business Council
64
Huge problems exist with respect to inadequate capacity, Enhancing port infrastructures can substantially reduce the
particularly in terminal storage and maintenance. Delays are cost of production for companies and contribute to economic
AIRPORTS often caused by long processing times and poor shipment growth. For instance, as a result of the recent Dakar Port
handling rates, with over-the-quay container-handling Container Development Project, Senegal has been able to
By providing a quick link to export markets, air transport upgrades, notably surveillance equipment and fleet performance running below 20 moves per hour in the African expand its exposure to international markets, increase the
enables the trade of time-sensitive, perishable exports modernization. Progress is further hampered by poor region, compared to 25 to 30 in modern terminals worldwide. volume of port traffic by 13 percent, and reduce average waiting
such as cut flowers, vegetables, fruits, meat, and fish, which airport infrastructure and inadequate air connections. Africa
In addition, handling64
operates ports,
costs many
average Delays
50 percent more are often time
in Africa caused by from 15Handling
for ships hours to 2 costs average
hours and 50%
for trucks from
are becoming increasingly important foreign-exchange of them
than are poorly
in other parts of equipped
the world. Further long processing
challenge stems times
several and more
hours to less than in Africa
30 minutes. Thethan in other
port enhancement
earners for African countries. The importance of air transport, especially for landlocked from a lack of efficient linkages
and uneconomically between roads
operated. poorand project willrates.
rail lines, handling
shipment increase berth
partscapacity
of thebyworld.
50 percent and vessel
countries, cannot be overemphasized. It is imperative and their poor connectivity to ports. productivity from 20 moves per hour to 61 moves per hour.
20
Yet air transport in Africa remains expensive by that African countries enhance this sector’s development Moreover, the port will operate the terminal continuously, on
international standards. This is mainly because of lower
passenger traffic, limited liberalization of air space, high
to improve connectivity and safety and to reduce costs
in order to promote intra-African and global trade. Air
25-30
Private investment in ports is low; yet there is a great need a 24-hour-a-day basis. Costs have also been reduced by the
for transshipment facilities and maritime structures. Four implementation of an electronic customs clearance system
passenger and airport taxes, safety issues, and limited transport has to be enhanced not only by the amount regional hubs exist and these include Durban in Southern and the liberalization of the container shipping market.
infrastructure (airports, runways, and safety systems). and quality of physical infrastructure but also, even more Africa, Mombasa, and Dar-es-Salaam in East Africa, with
Africa still records the lowest safety standards in air importantly, by the way it is operated with regard to air- Djibouti also emerging as a new hub. In West Africa, Abidjan Africa’s prolonged underinvestment in transportation
transport of any region in the world. African airlines traffic control and ground-air communications, which are used to play this role but as a consequence of the civil war, its has resulted in a dilapidated transport infrastructure.
have also lagged behind in terms of technological inadequate in much of the region and need to be boosted. role has been supplanted by the port of Malaga in Spain. With Indeed, compared with other developing countries—
Over-the-quay container-handling performance Further challenge stems from a lack of efficient
runs below 20 moves per hour in African linkages between roads and rail lines, and their
terminals, compared to 25 to 30 moves per poor connectivity to ports.
52 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures hour in modern terminals worldwide. Infrastructure Development 53
2006 Globally, the industry
2010 average was 1 accident

for every 5 million
flights.
The most pressing problem for Runway accidents accounted for

African aviation is safety. about a quarter of the
excluding the provision for maintenance—African waterways. As Africa looks at scaling up infrastructure Internet use continues to increase. Africa’s data network in e-business, e-payments, e-learning, e-health, and
countries invested, on average, 15 to 25 percent accidents during 2006-2010.
of GDP investments in the transportation sector, the trade impact has been boosted through the rapid spread of submarine e-government, and propelled private consumption.
in transport infrastructure over the period 2005-2012, of such investments will spur growth and development. data transmission cables, bringing significant international Despite the progress of the ICT sector in recent years, the
while India and China invested about 32 percent and 42 This, in turn, will have spillover effects in all other bandwidth within reach of many Africans. The number of biggest impact has yet to come. While Africa’s internet
percent of GDP, respectively, over the same period. With sectors, opening further opportunities for private sector internet users has increased from 4 million people in 2000 contribution to overall GDP is low today, at 1.1 percent—
many national economies relying on the transport of investments. Within the transportation subsector, there to over 197.6 million people in 2012. Broadband coverage about half of that in other developing regions, this number
bulky primary produce, increased attention is being given are considerable opportunities to develop systems that has increased from a meagre 0.1 percent of the population in is expected to grow to at least 5 or 6 percent by 2025—the
to developing roads, rail networks, airports, and inland will improve intermodal efficiency. 2005 to 16 percent in 2012. A sharp upward trend is projected same level as the world’s leading economies. With digital
by 2060—to reach 99 percent of the population. In addition, technology, governments could improve transparency
the Internet is increasingly accessed through mobile phones. and public service delivery, teachers and students could
Africa’s mobile data usage amounts to 15 percent of the gain access to education content and training via tablets
64
50%
total internet traffic. In some countries like Kenya, nearly 99 and e-books, remote diagnosis and treatment could be
percent of internet subscriptions are on mobile phones. provided to those with lack of access to a health clinic,
farmers could access up-to-date weather and market
Telecommunications is crucial to economic growth: it information, and more people could gain access to
underpins business growth by providing connectivity finance via mobile and online banking. As the continent
access to global markets and supporting trade becomes more connected, social and economic growth
Africa operates 64 ports, many Delays are often caused by Handling costs average 50% communications; it has also brought on innovations will accelerate, transforming lives in the process.
of them are poorly equipped long processing times and more in Africa than in other
and uneconomically operated. poor shipment handling rates. parts of the world. Africa’s mobile phone market
20
25-30
2place
nd
Over-the-quay container-handling performance Further challenge stems from a lack of efficient

runs below 20 moves per hour in African linkages between roads and rail lines, and their Africa is now the fastest More than 8 in 10 Africans Average penetration rate has
terminals, compared to 25 to 30 moves per poor connectivity to ports. growing and second have a mobile phone. also risen from 37% in 2010
hour in modern terminals worldwide. largest mobile phone to 80% in 2013 and is still
market in the world. growing at 4.2% annually.
Source: African Development Bank and Commonwealth Business Council
15%
-
-
The transport sector needs to be better
-
oriented towards enhancing human and
-
social capital. 2016 1 000 000 000 -
5.4 INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY There are now 760 million mobile Africa’s mobile data usage amounts to 15% of the
subscribers in Africa. This number is projected total internet traffic.
While Africa’s information and communication technology (ICT) Africa is now the fastest growing and second largest mobile
to cross the 1 billion mark by 2016.
market is still relatively immature, robust economic growth, phone market in the world. More than eight in ten Africans have
population boom, rapid urbanization, an emerging middle a mobile phone, amounting to 760 million mobile subscriptions, Source: International Telecommunication Union and TA Telecom
class, strong competition among providers, and the increasing up from only 15 million in 2000—across the continent. Progress
affordability of mobile devices have propelled it to grow will continue over the next 5 years, with the number of
dramatically in recent years. Substantial development assistance subscriptions projected to cross the 1 billion mark by 2016. The
has been channeled to the ICT sector in Africa while private average penetration rate has also risen from 37 percent in 2010 Mali Ethiopia and Zambia
$5,800 $70,000
investment amounted to USD 50 billion over the last decade. to 80 percent in 2013 and is still growing at 4.2 percent annually.

Internet’s contribution to GDP 2012 5.5 WATER AND SANITATION
%
Increasing access to clean water and sanitation has been growing populations putting pressure on the available
Sweden 6.3 among the most challenging of the Millennium Development resources. Additionally, African countries generally lack
Taiwan 5.4
Goals (MDGs) to implement in Africa. The share of the the technologies needed to improve water and sanitation.
United Kingdom 5.4
South Korea 4.6 population in Africa’s poorest countries with access to an Where these technologies exist, they do not trickle down
Malaysia 4.1 improved water source has increased from 56 percent in to the many rural areas that would benefit from them.
Japan 4.0
2005 to 59 percent in 2012, compared to an average access Women and girls are the most affected, because they bear
Hungary 3.9
United States 3.8 rate of 87 percent across the developing world. Sanitation the primary responsibility of fetching water, taking up a lot
Senegal 3.3 lags even further behind. Only 28 percent of these countries of time that could be used more productively.
Germany 3.2
have access to improved sanitation facilities, and the rate
India 3.2
France 3.1 of investment is only just ahead of population growth. Water is one of the most essential natural resources, for
Kenya 2.9 While access has been improving in rural settings, progress livelihoods, food security, and economic growth. Africa
Canada 2.7
in urban areas has stagnated, with growing disparities urgently needs to invest in the sustainable development
China 2.6
Morocco 2.3 between wealthier and poorer neighborhoods. of its vast water resources, to protect against the impact
Argentina 2.2 of climate change in the coming years. This includes
Italy 1.7
In many cases, the lack of access to improved water source improving cooperation on the shared management of
Mozambique 1.6
Brazil 1.5 has slowed the progress on sanitation and contributed to Africa’s eighty or more international water basins. There
South Africa 1.4 outbreaks of diseases like cholera and diarrhoea. Factors are a number of successful models to follow, such as the
Côte de d'Ivoire 1.3
hindering progress in access to safe drinking water include Senegal River Basin Development Authority and the Nile
Tanzania 1.3
Cameroon 1.2 political instability, the increasing number of refugees, and Basin Initiative.
Ghana 1.1
The Internet’s
Egypt 1.0
contribution to Africa’s
59%
Mexico 1.0
28
Turkey 0.9
overall GDP is low, but 2012
Vietnam 0.9
<$2
Russia
Algeria
Nigeria
0.8
1.1
1.5
is projected to grow to
at least 5 to 6%, the
% a day
56%
Ethiopia 0.6
Angola 0.5 1.2
same level as Sweden, 2005
Taiwan, and the United
Africa 1.1% 1.9%
Emerging
economies 3.7% Developed
economies Kingdom, by 2025.
The share of population in Only 28% of Africa’s poorest Almost half of the people with
GDP adjusted for all revenues
3.4x
Africa’s poorest countries with countries have access to no access to improved
Source: McKinsey & Company
access to an improved water improved sanitation facilities. sanitation live on less than
source has increased from 56% two dollars a day.
Top 10 Internet Countries in Africa in 2005 to 59% in 2012.
Million
$
Number of
Internet Users
%
Nigeria............................................................................................................55.5
GDP
In 2012, over 197.6 million
5%
Egypt...............................................................................................................35.6
South Africa..................................................................................................21.5 people in Africa are using the
Morocco......................................................................................................... 17.9 internet, which corresponds to GDP
Kenya..............................................................................................................13.9 18.6% of the population.
Sudan.................................................................................................................7.8
Algeria.............................................................................................................. 5.9 Broadband coverage is at 16% and
On average, inadequate water Poor sanitation costs Nigeria, In most countries, current
Uganda............................................................................................................. 5.3 will likely reach 99% by 2060.
Tunisia.............................................................................................................. 4.5 and sanitation costs Africa Kenya, and Ghana $3 billion, investments in sanitation
Ghana............................................................................................................... 4.3 5% of its GDP. $324 million, and $290 million are less than 0.1% of GDP.
Source: International Telecommunication Union each year respectively.
Source: African Development Bank, World Health Organization, UNICEF, and World Bank
12 000 80 000
70 000 Housing, where
se
)
There are now 760 million mobile Africa’s mobile data usage amounts to 15% of the
subscribers in Africa. This number is projected total internet traffic.
to cross the 1 billion mark by 2016.
59%
28
2012
5.6 HOUSING <$2
% a day Mali Ethiopia and Zambia
$5,800 $70,000
African cities are growing exponentially, adding an estimated While there are great challenges, they are not insurmountable.
15 to 18 2005 56%
million people a year—averaging to 40,000 to Several countries have already demonstrated progress toward
50,000 people every day. In the coming decades, Africa’s urban affordable housing provision by successfully implementing
population is projected to grow 45 percent faster than the housing policies and programs catered to low-income households.
population
The shareasofa population
whole. By 2040inhalf of Africa’s 28% of
population
Only As a result,
willAfrica’s poorestsome 24 million
Almost half
African urban dwellers
of the peoplehavewith
had
live in a city. significant improvements in their living conditions. The number of
Africa’s poorest countries with countries have access to no access to improved
slum populations in countries like Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia has
access to an improved water improved sanitation facilities.
The growth of cities comes with an increasing demand of also substantially reduced sanitation live
over the past on as
decade less than
well.
land for has
source increased
housing, services,from 56%other aspects of urban
jobs, and two dollars a day.
in 2005 to 59% in 2012.
development. Yet, housing is rarely affordable—with prices Urban legislation should continue to be a priority area for
ranging from USD 5,800 in Mali to USD 70,000 in Ethiopia sustainable urban development. Governments should legislate to
$
and Zambia. This leaves half of the urban population—the ensure that all categories of citizens have equal access to adequate
majority of which are between the ages of 15 and 24—with no and affordable housing, basic infrastructure and services, and equal %
GDP
alternatives but to live in slums and informal settlements under job opportunities. Mass affordable housing would require careful
5%
poor, overcrowded conditions instead. Today, over 226 million policy coordination—removing inappropriate building regulations;
people in Africa live in slum conditions—up from 123 million clarifying land titling and legal enforcement; encouraging innovation
in 1990. Those living with insecure property rights often find in housing finance; promoting the construction, maintenance, and GDP
themselves living beyond the reach of the law and vulnerable upgrades of existing housing properties and informal settlements;
to exploitation. and supplying integrated infrastructures and services that target the
marginalized groups, including the poor, youth, women, and elderly
On average, inadequate water Poor sanitation costs Nigeria, In most countries, current
Scarce urban land for housing development, increasingly high people. It also demands a carefully crafted and comprehensive
and sanitation
construction costs
materials andAfrica Kenya,
infrastructure costs, andasGhana
as well $3 billion,
a response investments
from city planners in sanitation
to ensure orderly urban development
5%
lack ofofland
its GDP. $324 million,
and housing policies and legislation, all lead toandand$290 million
prevent areBetter
urban sprawl. than 0.1%and
lesscommunication ofallocation
GDP.of
rising housing costs and tenure insecurity. Housing finance in
each year respectively.resources from central to municipal authorities are also crucial.
Africa is generally limited, with 85 percent of urban dwellers
unable to secure housing due to high down-payment
requirements, short loan periods, and high interest rates.
Relationship of income to housing cost

12 000 80 000
Housing, where
70 000 Housing,
available,where
is simply not
Price of the cheapest newly built house
10 000
by a formal developer in 2013 (USD)
60 000 available, isfor

affordable simply not
the vast
GNI per capita, 2012 (USD)
8 000 majority of Africans.

affordable for the vast
50 000
majority of Africans.
6 000 40 000
Home prices range from
30 000
4 000 $5,800 in Mali to $70,000
20 000
in Ethiopia and Zambia.
2 000
10 000
0 0
Seychelles
Mauritius
Botswana
South Africa
Namibia
Angola
Tunisia
Algeria
Egypt
Morocco
Swaziland
Ghana
Nigeria
Lesotho
Zambia
Côte d'Ivoire
Burundi
Dem. Rep. of Congo
Cameroon
Senegal
Kenya
Benin
Zimbabwe
Burkina Faso
Mali
South Sudan
Sierra Leone
Tanzania
Rwanda
Gambia
Mozambique
Togo
Central African Rep.
Uganda
Madagascar
Ethiopia
Niger
Malawi
Source: Centre for Affordable Housing Finance in Africa

6
Agriculture,
Food Security,
and a Greener
Environment
> 1/2
Fertile land Plentiful agricultural labor Abundant water resources
> 1/2
Over half of the 55% of Africa's labor force is The Congo, Nile, Zambezi, and Niger
world’s fertile yet employed in agriculture; in some are amongst the world's longest
Promoting agriculture continues to be the most effective way of driving inclusive PRODUCTION AND YIELD
unused cropland is in
GAP
countries like Djibouti, Guinea, and rivers while Lake Victoria is the
growth and poverty-reduction in Africa. The continent needs its own green revolution Over half of the
Africa. 55% of Africa's
Burkina labor
Faso, the force is
proportion
The Congo,
world's Nile,largest
second Zambezi, and Niger
lake.
Agricultural Production
world’s fertile yet
Index, Africa, 1961-2012 are amongst the world's longest
to improve yield and commercialize agriculture. exceeds 94%
employed in agriculture;
. in some
Index (1961=100)
unused cropland is in countries like Djibouti, Guinea, and rivers while Lake Victoria is the
Africa. Burkina Faso, the proportion world's second largest lake.
6.1 AFRICAN AGRICULTURE 500
exceeds 94%.
Agriculture is the dominant source of livelihood in Africa, crop irrigation, has made Africa heavily dependent on rainfall—
especially in low-income rural areas. Nearly half of the continent’s which is increasingly unpredictable. With little protection against 400
500
population—equivalent to just over 530 million people, 227 climate variability and climate change, droughts, floods, cyclones,
million of which are directly employed in the sector—are and desertification often lead to crop failure, poor harvests, and
300
dependent on an agricultural lifestyle. Promoting agriculture— food insecurity. Lack of access to improved water resources also 400
which provides direct inputs to the agro-processing value chain, causes many farmers to use wastewater for agriculture, leading to
supplies food to urban areas, and is a source of household a high incidence rate in food poisoning and foodborne diseases.
200
savings for investment—and food security is therefore one of the Inadequate energy supply constrains productivity and also 300
most effective ways to drive inclusive growth and reduce poverty. processing and storage of produce. Africa’s very low connectivity
density in paved road and rail network contributes to high,
100
With more than half of the world’s fertile yet unused cropland, sometimes up to 40 percent, postharvest losses and lack of access 200
abundant water resources, and plentiful agricultural labor, Africa to markets. In addition, there is growing concern that a decline
clearly has an opportunity to feed a rapidly growing population, in long-term soil fertility is limiting agricultural production and
0
increase productivity and competitiveness, and spur economic yield in Africa, and that the problem is getting worse. 100
1961
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2012
growth. Indeed, agricultural output has been increasing steadily
across the continent over the past decades and has the potential Given the continent’s projected increase in food requirements and
to continue growing in the next decade. Yet, while Africa did the limits to extensive agricultural growth, a major transformation 0
1961
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2012
see an increase in agricultural production, average yield and of African agriculture from subsistence towards commercial
cropping intensity have not improved. While other global regions production would be vital. Improved yields and productivity are Yield
6
across world regions, 1961 vs 2012
have doubled or tripled their average yields between 1961 and necessary to meet non-African competition and contribute to 1.48
2012, the growth in yield in Africa is barely perceptible. Plausible reducing food prices without taxing smallholders. This would Metric Ton per Hectare
5
explanations for the low yields include lack of access to water, fuel, require scaling up investments in irrigation, improving access to
2.21
and improved planting materials, as well as low use of fertilizers, key agricultural inputs and technology, establishing supporting 6
4 1.48 2.23 1.64
machinery, and irrigation technology. Africa, especially Sub- mechanisms for increased use of nutritional supplements in
Saharan Africa, is characterized by minimal water storage capacity, agricultural production, developing local and regional food 5 1.96
resulting in gross underutilization of Africa’s abundant water procurement and distribution centers, and removing trade 3 2.21
1.04
resources. This, along with the lack of technology used for proper barriers and impediments to Africa’s agricultural and food market. 4 2.23 1.64
2
0.99 1.96
3
UNLOCKING AFRICA’S AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL 1 1.04
2
0.99
Fertile land
Fertile land Plentiful
Plentiful agricultural
agricultural labor labor Abundant
Abundant water
water resources
resources 0
Africa North America Central America South America Asia Europe Oceania
1
> 1/2 0
1961 2012
Africa North America Central America South America Asia Europe Oceania
1961 2012
Over half of the 55% of Africa's labor force is The Congo, Nile, Zambezi, and Niger
world’s fertile yet employed in agriculture; in some are amongst the world's longest Agricultural production has been increasing steadily across Africa over the past decades. Yet,
rivers while Lake Victoria is the the continent’s average yield growth lags behind other world regions.
unused cropland is in countries like Djibouti, Guinea, and
Africa. Burkina Faso, the proportion world's second largest lake.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
exceeds 94%.
500
62 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Agriculture, Food Security, and a Greener Environment 63
400
Investments in agriculture can make a significant difference Recent global food crises and ongoing struggles with hunger in some parts of Africa,
particularly in the Horn and the Sahel, emphasize the need for greater food security.
Africa must also harness more of its own capital—human, natural and financial—to
50% 30% invest in future development
Africa food security and nutrition

Better seeds can lead to 30%
23
Irrigation technology could Increased fertilizer and
increase output by up to 50%. 1990 %
23
pesticide use can help bridge more yield in drought-prone kg
yield gaps. areas. 1990 % kg
2013
2013
Hunger Levels dropped by Malnutrition has been reduced The proportion of under-weight
25% between
Hunger 1990 andby2013.
Levels dropped by 23% sincehas
Malnutrition thebeen
1990s.
reduced children
The decreased
proportion from 34%
of under-weight
25% between 1990 and 2013. by 23% since the 1990s. 24% in 2012.
in 1990 todecreased
children from 34%
Improved infrastructure can Modern information and Trade liberalization can uplift
in 1990 to 24% in 2012.
reduce postharvest losses. communication technologies Africa’s agricultural potential.
can improve market integration. Country progress in the combat against hunger, Africa
Percentage change in 2013 GHI compared with 1990 GHI
Source: African Development Bank and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Winners Losers
Ghana
-68% Winners Losers
6.2 FOOD SECURITY

Ghana
Angola
-68%
-52%
Angola
Malawi
-52%
In order to feed a population of 2.4 billion in 2050, Africa in four people—in Africa in 2010-2013 did not consume -51%
will need a new vision for agriculture, one that would enough food on a regular basis to cover their minimum Malawi
Rwanda
-51%
enhance food security, environmental sustainability, and dietary energy requirements. Political unrest and food price -50%
Rwanda
economic opportunity through agriculture. Food security, volatility pose as major challenges for Africa’s smallholder Mali
-50%
in particular, has been one of the top targets in the farmers and poor consumers, as food accounts for a large -46%
Mali
Millennium Development Goals. Africa has made some share of farmers’ incomes and poor consumers’ budgets. Low -46%
Niger
-44%
progress in reducing hunger over the last two decades productivity arising from low-input use, land degradation
Niger
and its Global Hunger Index (GHI) is now lower than (such as soil erosion in Lesotho), lack of water storage -44%
Mauritania
-42%
South Asia’s. Since 1990, six countries (Ghana, Angola, capacities, poor infrastructure, climate change (drought, Mauritania
Djibouti
Malawi, Rwanda, Mali, and Niger) have reduced their especially in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel), among other -42%
-42%
GHI scores by 50 percent or more, nineteen have made issues, ultimately lead to declining rural incomes and affect Djibouti
Benin
-42%
modest progress by reducing hunger between 25 and 49.9 the ability of rural households to feed themselves. -41%
percent, and another nineteen reduced hunger by 0.0 to Benin
Nigeria
Increase -41%
19.9 percent. Three countries (Burundi, Swaziland, and The seriousness of food insecurity has led some countries, -41%
Decrease of 0.0-24.9% Nigeria
Comoros) experienced setbacks. While Africa still has the including Burkina Faso, Chad, the Central African Republic, Increase Burundi
-41%
Decrease of 25.0-49.9%
highest prevalence of undernourishment, it has declined Gambia, Niger, Mali, Togo, and Tanzania, to declare Decrease of 0.0-24.9%
15%
Decrease of 50% or more Burundi
from 27.3 percent to 21.2 percent over the last 20 years. national emergencies and accelerate priority action plans. Decrease of 25.0-49.9% Swaziland
15%
No data 38%
These actions have started mobilizing global support, Decrease of 50% or more
Swaziland
Despite past progress, Africa still imports roughly USD partnerships, and resources and strengthening the No data
Comoros
38%
40%
80 billion in foodstuffs and large segments of Africa’s coordination of development management. Successful Comoros
population still suffer from chronic hunger. According to advancement will be defined by the quality of growth and -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
40%
new estimates, about 226 million people—around one by ensuring that progress is sustainable.
-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Source: International Food Policy Research Institute
Africa On the Move Towards Green Growth
6.3 TOWARDS GREEN GROWTH Africa on the move towards green growth
Africa is endowed with abundant natural wealth, from its As a high proportion of Africans depend for their
land to its water and its extraordinary biodiversity. In recent livelihoods on renewable resources like land, water, and Morocco Tunisia
years, rapidly growing population, dietary changes, rising fisheries, finding a more efficient, sustainable, and resilient
income, high demand for commodities, and urbanization in growth pathway for Africa would make sound economic
Morocco
the developing world have led to a surge in international sense. Green growth will help ensure that the benefits of Egypt
demand for Africa’s resources. This situation is likely to natural resource endowments are shared equitably across
continue, with international demand for natural resources the continent, and with future generations. Structural
projected to triple by 2050. transformation of African economies can also help reduce Egypt
dependence on natural resources and other commodities
Niger
Whereas this resource wealth represents an extraordinary through greater diversification and more sophisticated Mali
opportunity for Africa to reducing poverty and fighting value chains.
hunger, it also puts the continent’s natural environment
Mali Niger
under increasing pressure. In some instances, high demand, For this reason, a number of African countries are working Burkina
coupled with climate change, has also led to widespread through national investment plans to move toward Faso
environmental damages and losses: many African countries sustainable green growth—to manage their natural Nigeria
have already lost a significant quantity of their soils, resources more efficiently, maximize development
Ghana
contributing to reduced yields and food insecurity; and benefits, minimize vulnerabilities, and ensure that their Nigeria Kenya
almost 200 million Africans now live on degraded land. natural wealth is preserved for future generations.
Desertification continues, with 37 percent of the continent Many African countries now have the policy, as well as
at risk. If current trends were to continue, much of Africa’s legal and institutional frameworks, required to improve Ethiopia
DR Congo
natural capital could be squandered within a generation, environmental management, but most still need to
leaving large parts of the continent still trapped in poverty. develop the capacity for implementation and enforcement.
Tanzania
Wind Forests
Solar Agriculture Zambia
Hydro Climate Info Mozambique
Geothermal Transport
South
Africa
Hybrid
South
Africa
Green growth project outcomes

120 120 Poverty 35%
1.7 GW 61,000 hectares
million 2 reduced 55
0 increased of regenerated forests
W
in
61
tons CO in project areas d energy through Surface area (ha)
reduced renewable reforested/regenerated
14% 13%
10% 23 22
6% technologies 16
5% 520 ro
Hyd Expected Installed
al
rm
Capacity (MW) by
e
260 CSP
Ghana
DRC
Burkina Faso
Mozambique
Zambia
Niger
DRC
Ghana
Burkina Faso
Total
oth
technology of
Ge 0
40
approved projects
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Acknowledgments
Report—Teaching and Learning: Achieving quality for all The report on Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures was The African Development Bank would like to express
International Telecommunication Union, ICT Data and
prepared by the Statistics Department of the Bank’s Chief its appreciation to all authors who contributed to the
Statistics Division, mobile and broadband datasets United Nations Human Settlements Programme UN-
Economist Complex. The core team included Charles Leyeka production of the report and Sandra Jones (Editorial
Habitat, Affordable Land and Housing in Africa, 2011 Lufumpa (Director), Oliver Chinganya (Manager, Statistical Consultant) who assisted with the review and editing of the
International Telecommunication Union, ITU statshot May
United Nations Human Settlements Programme UN- Capacity Building), and Beejaye Kokil (Manager, Social & report. The preparation of the report also benefited from the
2013
Economic Statistics). Other members of the team were valuable inputs received from Christian Kigombe (Regional
Habitat, The State of African Cities 2010
McKinsey Global Institute, Lions go digital: The Internet’s Alice Nabalamba (Chief Statistician), Maurice Mubila (Chief Integration), Mary Kimani (Fragile States), Sarah Cooper
transformative potential in Africa, November 2013 United Nations Children’s Fund, The State of the World’s Statistician), Louis Kouakou (Statistician), Amina Soltani (Governance), and several reviewers from the Department of
Children, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 (Statistical Assistant), and Anouar Chaouch (Statistical Agriculture. The African Development Bank is also grateful
Miniwatts Marketing Group, Internet World Stats, Internet Assistant). for the input of experts from Oxford Policy Management.
Usage Statistics for Africa 2012 World Bank Group, Doing Business 2014 Report
The work was undertaken under the overall guidance of The cover, layout, infographics, and other design of the
Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2013 Ibrahim Index of African World Bank Group, Global Economic Prospects, January Mthuli Ncube, Chief Economist and Vice President of the Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures report were done by
Governance, Web resources and database 2014 African Development Bank. Prognoz. The report was produced by Phoenix Design Aid
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African Development Bank Group

Tel: (+216) 7110 2175

2 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Overview 3

Africa—a continent larger

is soon-to-be the world’s its current size—in the next

into a global economic

Asia Africa Europe South America North America

Births per woman

6 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Human Development 7

Ibadan........................ Nigeria............ 2,509........ 2,837........ 3,276.........3,760.........4,237 49.3

60 1,200 Douala........................ Cameroon...... 1,767........ 2,125........ 2,478.........2,815.........3,131 47.3

50 1,000 Alexandria................. Egypt............... 3,973........ 4,387........ 4,791.........5,201.........5,648 28.7

Urban population (Millions)

Algiers........................ Algeria............ 2,512........ 2,800........ 3,099.........3,371.........3,595 28.4

Casablanca................ Morocco.......... 3,138........ 3,284.........3,537.........3,816.........4,065 23.8

10 200 Durban........................ South Africa.. 2,638........ 2,879........ 3,026.........3,133.........3,241 126

8 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Human Development 9

10 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Human Development 11

Life expectancy compared to other world regions Africa

Years Maternal mortality ratio—

12 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Human Development 13

Africa will continue to be

AIDS burden. 1990 2011

People needing antiretroviral Gross enrollment rate in pre-primary education, %..............................................................................................9.7..................17.8

14 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Human Development 15

Adult literacy status in selected African countries

Literate Semi-literate Illiterate

New teaching posts required to close the education gap, Africa

Primary school Lower secondary school

Population growth, higher demand for Public spending in education currently

Africa must begin to provide

16 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Human Development 17

19 Croatia.................................................................................................................................49.1.................63.2............. 14............... 23 Inadequate supply of infrastructure

22 Kazakhstan.........................................................................................................................48.4.................61.8............. 13.5........... 20 Tax rates

25 Mauritius.............................................................................................................................61.4.................73.5............. 12............... 23 Inflation

28 Morocco.................................................................................................................................. 52.................63.9............. 11.8........... 18 Poor work ethic in national labor force

31 Yemen, Rep..........................................................................................................................43.9.................55.1............. 11.2.............. 7 Restrictive labor regulations

34 Czech Republic.................................................................................................................. 57.6.................68.7............. 11.1........... 22 Foreign currency regulations

37 India..................................................................................................................................... 40.7.................51.3............. 10.6............17 Government instability/coups

Since 2005, a net 8 million

committees have become increasingly active. Getting Gabon 52.8 6.4

30 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Governance, Fragility, and Security 31

Corruption perceptions index (CPI), Africa, 2013

Global Rank Police 4.2

Almost one in two people report having paid

Togo 123 perceived as corrupting the public administration.

Source: Transparency International

32 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Governance, Fragility, and Security 33

Source: African Development Bank Source: African Development Bank

34 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Governance, Fragility, and Security 35

The annual global cost of conﬂict

Source: African Development Bank

36 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Governance, Fragility, and Security 37

4.1 AFRICA AS THE NEW FRONTIER

Share of consumer-related FDI greenfield projects 2008-2012 Djibouti 110

40 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Regional Integration, Trade, and Investment 41

42 Tracking Africa’s Progress in Figures Regional Integration, Trade, and Investment 43

INITIATIVES capital requires investments at a number of levels. First,