A report from the Deloitte Center for

Technology, Media & Telecommunications

Digital media trends

The future of movies
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Contents

The changing landscape of movies 4

A portfolio of content and distribution channels 9

Different strokes for different studios 11

Moving forward 13

Endnotes 14
Digital media trends

T
HE IMPACT OF COVID-19 on movie theaters
has accelerated two preexisting trends: More After the pandemic is over,
people are staying home to enjoy movies and
other entertainment, and more studios and media
it is unclear what role
distributors are developing their own direct-to- movie theaters will play in
consumer streaming services. While theaters have
suffered heavily from stay-at-home norms, studios consumer entertainment or
have also been deeply challenged. Productions
were halted, some of the most anticipated
to what extent the existing
theatrical premieres were postponed,1 and more system of releases will
top studios had to forgo theatrical releases
altogether and go direct to consumers to generate
have been disrupted.
at least some income.2 After the pandemic is over,
it is unclear what role movie theaters will play in Although streaming may look like the obvious path
consumer entertainment or to what extent the forward, studios can’t fully monetize all their
existing system of releases will have been disrupted. franchises and derivative content through streaming
services, particularly if they don’t control their own
Studios derive almost half of their revenues from distribution channels. For those that do, deploying
theatrical releases. Although the average number streaming services is very costly. Many have yet to
of movie tickets purchased by Americans each year show much profit, despite their expanding market
has declined from 4.2 in 2009 to 3.4 in 2019,3 valuations.5 Early experiments with premium video-
studio revenues are driven more by box office on-demand (PVoD), where first-run movies are
tickets now than they were 20 years ago.4 If offered directly to consumers on streaming services,
theaters have a diminished role in the windowing have had mixed results during the pandemic. At the
system—the schedule of exclusive exhibition same time, if the pandemic were over, 68% of
periods across theaters, home video, cable and TV, consumers want to watch at least some movies in
and streaming—it could force changes in how theaters (figure 1).6 Clearly, it is not as simple as just
content deals are financed, what the terms for shifting to streaming.
distribution look like, and how studios make
money from their productions.

2
 The future of movies

FIGURE 1

There’s a role for movie theaters—but maybe not the role

Consumers’ location preference for watching new movie releases (post–COVID-19)

13%
20% At a theater
At home
Imagine a future where the
pandemic has ended, and movie
theaters are all open again.
22%
Probably at A new movie you have been looking
a theater forward to watching is being released at
22%
Probably the same time both in theaters and as a
at home paid option though a steaming service
you subscribe to. If the cost were the
same, where would you see it?
23%
Equally likely at a
theater or at home

Note: Sample size (N) = 1,100.

Source: Digital media trends COVID-19 pulse survey, October 2020.
Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights

With more people opting for home entertainment go directly to consumers via streaming and PVoD?
experiences and more studios developing their own Are there different forms of value that can be
distribution channels, studios have a chance to unlocked with direct-to-consumer services? These
reconsider movie windowing and revenue models. are questions studios should be asking at this
Is a movie only a “movie” if it is first released in a unprecedented moment.
theater? Should some movies skip the theater and

The right answers could hinge on a studio’s perspective

about the future of content, how they reach and engage
audiences, and how they shift to deliver ongoing value to
consumers and subscribers.

3
Digital media trends

The changing landscape

of movies

S
FIGURE 2
TUDIOS ARE VERY reliant on box office sales,
which rose from 26% of total global revenues Studios have become more reliant
in 2000 to 46% in 2019 (figure 2).7 With on the box office
almost half of their revenues from theatrical Total global revenue for studios, by
theatrical window
releases, studios are understandably concerned
Box office TV Video/DVD
about upending a century-old model in favor of
digital distribution.

26%

With almost half of their

revenues from theatrical 46% 2000
releases, studios are 28%
understandably concerned
about upending a century-
old model in favor of
digital distribution. 36%
42%
2010
Studios typically release new movies to theaters
with an exclusive window: A film cannot be shown
23%
on any other channel during the theatrical release.
On average, studios share 45% of box office
revenue with the theater operator. Most movies
make about 75% of total US box office revenue in
the first 17 days (including the first three 36%
weekends), yet they can stay in theaters for another
2020 46%
60 to 75 days to capture the remaining 25%.8 The
longer a movie runs in theaters, the more the
revenue share shifts in favor of the venues.
18%

Source: SNL Kagan, 2020.

Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights

4
 The future of movies

FIGURE 3

Exploring the traditional Hollywood windowing system

The exclusive periods through which new release movies have typically been distributed

Time after movie release

Theatrical Home video Premium TV Basic/free

0–3 months 3–9 months network TV network
9–27 months 27 months–8 years

Source: Deloitte analysis.

Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights

Although they are usually the first, movie theaters license fee paid to studios. If more movies skip
are just one of the windows that studios and theaters or shorten theatrical windows in favor of
distributors use to release films (figure 3). digital platforms, fewer movies would likely be able
Traditionally, the windowing system has ensured to generate required box office results or reach
that revenue generated by each platform is minimums for TV deals. Likewise, movies still
protected by rights to show movies during a account for much of the daily scheduling on
particular time frame. For example, the theatrical premium cable networks. Changes to the theatrical
window ensures movies are only available in window—such as releasing a movie on PVoD
cinemas over the first 90 days, followed by the instead of in a theater—could create a domino
home video and premium TV windows. They are effect of change across other windows and put
not always distinct, however. Some overlap, while more pressure on the success of streaming efforts
others, such as home video, may extend indefinitely. to compensate.

Traditionally, the
This shifting landscape puts studios in a difficult
position. They may be able to reach more people
windowing system has through streaming services, particularly during the
pandemic, but doing so could undermine theaters
ensured that revenue and the large revenues they generate. It could also

generated by each platform affect revenue from other windows—if they choose
to use them. Such considerations impact upfront
is protected by rights to financing of productions, existing distribution

show movies during a agreements, and licensing terms.

particular time frame. Arguably, exhibition windows have primarily been

actuarial—a launch plan negotiated to anchor
financing of productions and then monetize their
Theatrical releases not only drive box office steady release to different consumer segments. As
revenues; they also typically determine how on-demand streaming services have expanded, they
revenue from subsequent windows are negotiated. have put more pressure on the traditional post-
For example, the license fee for TV windows is theater windows, such as premium and basic pay TV.
determined by the success of the theatrical release: In addition, consumers have come to demand
the higher the box office revenue, the higher the instant access to services of all stripes. When

5
Digital media trends

convenience and immediacy are paramount, the was the top factor.16 This challenge could be greater
time delays that consumers face with the windowing when streaming services charge for PVoD movies
system may feel like unnecessary friction. on top of monthly subscription fees. However,
consumer interest in PVoD could wane once the
COVID-19 pandemic has retreated and movie
Enter premium video theaters are considered a viable—and safe—option.
on-demand
The pandemic seems to be forcing the hand of major
During the crisis, PVoD has
studios. They either lose money by delaying emerged as a viable way
theatrical releases or launch first-run films directly
to consumers over streaming services. According to for studios to reach movie
Deloitte’s Digital media trends 14th edition fall
pulse survey, only 18% of US consumers have
fans, while also posing a
attended a movie in a theater since the COVID-19 challenge to the traditional
pandemic began.9 Even if they had the option, only
29% of consumers would feel comfortable going to a
windowing system.
theater within the next month.10 Prolonged closures,
and the reluctance of moviegoers to return to Perhaps the biggest question is whether studios
theaters when they reopen, have put theater chains can get the same revenues from PVoD they do from
under tremendous financial pressure.11 theaters. One benefit of PVoD is that studios can
get a larger share of revenue. When movies are
During the crisis, PVoD has emerged as a viable released in theaters, studios keep 55% of the box
way for studios to reach movie fans, while also office revenue. With PVoD, that share is close to
posing a challenge to the traditional windowing 80%. Studios could reduce the cost of theatrical
system. PVoD movies are available on subscription distribution by shortening those windows to favor
streaming services where consumers can view a PVoD release. A recent agreement between a
them at launch for an additional price of around major theater chain and a studio reduced the
US$20— often double the average theater ticket theatrical window to 17 days, after which movies
price but significantly less than the US$35 a
12
would be available on PVoD.17 With theaters under
typical family might pay at the box office.13 pressure, studios could negotiate lower revenue
share or lower guarantees.
During the early phase of COVID-19 stay-at-home
orders, Deloitte found that 22% of consumers had PVoD could help studios make their streaming
paid to rent or watch a PVoD movie, and 90% of services more valuable to subscribers, satisfy
those said they would do so again. As the
14
consumer desire for new content, and make them
pandemic has continued, studios have released feel like a VIP. A direct-to-consumer release could
more movies via PVoD, and viewership has grown. frontload the cost of preparing a film for streaming
As of October 2020, 35% of consumers say they’ve distribution, both as a PVoD release and an
watched a PVoD release.15 ongoing part of the streaming catalog—a growing
requirement for streaming video services. Studios
This growth is promising, but convincing the could even consider developing windowing within
majority of consumers to pay a premium to stream their streaming services, staging releases across
a movie at home may take time. Among consumers PVoD, basic subscribers, and ad-supported
who have not paid to watch a PVoD movie, cost streaming audiences. For studios that have their

6
 The future of movies

FIGURE 4

Ad-supported tiers, exclusive hits, and VIP treatment are the most powerful
incentives to retain video streaming service customers
Incentives most likely to keep subscribers

Being able to switch to a reduced cost, ad-supported version of the service

28%

The release of an exclusive new movie or series

27%

Being able to purchase new movie releases the same time they are released in theaters
23%

Being able to add more profiles, so multiple people can watch at the same time under the same account
22%

Getting discounts on related merchandise and entertainment

18%

Being able to watch shows and movies together with others through a social platform
18%

Being able to download and watch content offline

17%

None of the above

9%

Note: Sample size (N) = 419 respondents who canceled a service during the pandemic. Respondents could select up to
two responses.
Source: Digital media trends COVID-19 pulse survey, October 2020.
Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights

own video streaming services, offering subscribers Going direct: From revenue per
exclusive access to PVoD when a movie is released window to revenue per user
in theaters could be the kind of perk that could
prevent churn (figure 4). The combined drivers of flattening theatrical
revenues, rising in-home entertainment, and the

PVoD could help studios shift to streaming distribution are putting greater
pressure on the windowing system. For studios and
make their streaming distributors, direct-to-consumer distribution

services more valuable

channels may require a strategic reassessment of
monetization—and a willingness to shift their
to subscribers, satisfy perspective. For example, streaming revenues may
never directly replace those from theatrical and
consumer desire for new linear TV.18 So, what new kinds of value can a

content, and make them direct-to-consumer solution enable? How can

studios and distributors move from revenue per
feel like a VIP. window to revenue per user?

7
Digital media trends

Just as streaming lowers the friction for audiences, knowledge, studios can focus their dollars on
it can also make it easier for studios and content that contributes to profits.
distributors to get more relevant content and
advertising in front of the right audiences.
Typically, digital services can generate much more
The trend to develop
data about engagement than theaters can provide, original content as a lure
such as data based on content interests,
demographics, and location. Leveraging data-
for streaming subscribers
driven insights can potentially reduce risks in will likely only continue,
but providers may need to
content development and financing while enabling
more effective targeting for ad-supported services.
Studios could also use data to identify valuable experiment with pricing and
segments such as “super users.” Deloitte has found
that consumers who watched a movie via PVoD are even ad-supported options
more likely to have subscribed to additional paid
services such as streaming video, streaming music,
to reach more segments.
and gaming.19 This could lead to greater acquisition
and retention for studios that offer broader Although only the largest studios control a
entertainment packages. streaming service, they also see the need for
original hit content—a need they may struggle to fill.
For major studios with their own streaming services, Smaller studios may be able to negotiate better
PVoD can be a lever to attract new subscribers and terms with streaming services if they offer PVoD
retain existing ones with exclusive releases. The exclusivity though, again, they should weigh the
trend to develop original content as a lure for costs against the benefits. Ultimately, trends in
streaming subscribers will likely only continue, but media consumption in an increasingly competitive
providers may need to experiment with pricing and landscape underscore the need for studios of all
even ad-supported options to reach more segments. sizes to reconsider windowing. Studios now have an
They may need better insight into which content opportunity to take a more nuanced and measured
attracts subscribers and keeps them on the service approach to how different types of content may
and which content doesn’t. Armed with this perform on different distribution channels.

8
 The future of movies

A portfolio of content and

distribution channels

A
LTHOUGH STUDIOS RECEIVE 45% of their windows while others may have a shorter time at
overall release revenues from movie the box office—or none at all. The term “direct to
theaters, not all movies are theatrical video” has often had negative connotations,
successes. Relative to their marketing costs, action signaling a production not good enough for
movies, science fiction and fantasy, and animated theatrical distribution. With Emmys and audiences
features show the strongest returns from movie- piling up for streaming services, the same may not
going audiences (figure 5). Comedies, dramas,
20
be true for “direct to streaming.”
and thrillers more often see negative returns on
advertising dollars; they cost more to market than Some movies may be well-
they earn in cinemas.
suited to big theatrical
Given the variable performance of different genres,
studios could use genre and film budget to
windows while others may
determine the length and feasibility of theatrical have a shorter time at the
runs. Some may be well-suited to big theatrical
box office—or none at all.

FIGURE 5

Some movie genres perform better than others at the box office
Multiple return of revenue for every dollar spent on marketing

P&A Box office revenue (net to studio)

$100,000 1.6x 1.6x

1.5x
$90,000
$80,000 1.2x
$70,000 0.8x
$60,000 0.7x 0.7x
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
Action Animated Comedy Drama Horror Sci-fi/fantasy Thriller

Note: Below 1x means studios spent more on advertising than they received from theater revenue.
Source: SNL Kagan, 2020.
Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights

9
Digital media trends

The industry could benefit from reconceiving with new content on multiple platforms, rather
storytelling and cinema. By moving past the TV-or- than waiting until a new movie is released.
cinema dichotomy, studios could pursue a more
diverse array of storytelling vehicles. For example, The challenge for studios and distributors is to better
they could increase development of shorter and understand which channel is appropriate for which
less cost-intensive content types, attracting kind of content, and how to match that with the right
younger audiences and talent while leveraging audiences. Data can help, but it may be more
social media and video-sharing platforms for interesting to redefine content to focus on
distribution and promotion. Such pathways can storytelling, entertainment, and audience
reinforce larger franchises and promote or engagement and retention, rather than on where it
resurface more expensive original content such as fits into exhibition windows or whether it debuted on
features, films, and series. Studios should consider TV or in movie theaters. This could enable studios
a franchise strategy that consistently engages fans and media companies to become more flexible and
meet the evolving preferences of viewers.

10
 The future of movies

Different strokes for

different studios

T
HE CALCULUS WILL likely vary widely characters across video gaming, for example, or
depending on the type, size, and reach of a other immersive experiences, integrating multiple
given studio. Major studios and distributors mediums and channels to tell stories and engage
with their own direct-to-consumer streaming audiences. Their flexibility with how, where, and
services have greater capacity to change, but also when movies are released can support greater
carry higher risk and drag. Some are clearly options for their distributors. In addition, small
focused on streaming subscriptions; others have studios could gain access to more cinema slots if
retained elements of linear TV with ad-based large studios reduce their theatrical releases.
models. All are weighing the costs of producing
original content, licensing back catalogs, and Not only is the calculus variable for studios, the
adjusting consumer pricing. Although many young math may be changing. Measuring box office
video streaming services are focused on subscriber tickets against streaming or PVoD revenues is not
acquisition, the looming battle is in retention. an apples-to-apples comparison. Direct revenues
from streaming may be lower but they may be less
To be successful, studios may need to move closer volatile, replaced by more stable monthly
to their audiences and work to continuously subscriptions, similar to how boxed software suites
provide greater customer value. Complicating have shifted to subscription services. Migrating to
matters, they are competing with tech and telecom more streaming can offset other costs such as
giants that don’t need their media arms to turn a marketing for multiple release windows. Digital
profit, because their main businesses lie elsewhere. distribution can use data to better understand
The deep pockets and market power of these churn, incentivize retention, and make advertising
companies can put studios in a bind, whether more targeted and effective. Deploying a portfolio
they’re buying content, selling it, or
21
approach to content and distribution could allow
producing originals. bets to be spread better. For example, it could
enable greater retention of niche audiences with
Smaller studios looking for the best and most more low-cost productions, rather than leaning so
profitable distribution channels to reach target heavily into blockbuster box office hits. Each of
audiences have more flexibility to experiment but these options can add more value to offset
may need to clearly articulate their value to digital theatrical losses. Ultimately, studios and
distribution owners. In some cases, they may sell distributors have an opportunity to shift their
content. In others, they may be brought on as objectives from maximizing the revenue of
production partners. Small studios could also benefit windows to maximizing the revenue of users—a key
from moving past the TV-or-cinema dichotomy. step in getting closer to their customers and
They could consider ways to extend their stories and delivering greater value.

11
Digital media trends

When the pandemic lifts, there will still likely be a consumer trend of the digital era is about removing
role for theaters. As more streaming services vie for friction and enabling greater convenience. The
compelling original content, many of the windowing system should evolve, as it has with
showrunners, screenwriters, and actors creating it previous shifts in media and distribution. Studios
are still drawn to the prestige of cinema. When and distributors, who see the value of controlling and
people feel safe to assemble again, theaters could see capitalizing on the customer experience, can help
a strong rebound. Studios will continue to deliver big drive that evolution. How quickly media and
theatrical experiences, but how theaters adapt and entertainment companies address their existing
demonstrate value against a growing at-home dependencies will likely play out in the shifting
market may likely determine their longevity. They competition for audiences and entertainment.
should bear in mind that the overwhelming

Measuring box office tickets against streaming or PVoD

revenues is not an apples-to-apples comparison.

12
 The future of movies

Moving forward
Key considerations for studio executives

The pandemic has challenged many industries to • Amid almost universal streaming penetration,
rethink their business and operating models. Here what is the role of the pay TV audience and the
are questions studios and movie distributors can high margins they deliver to the industry?
work through to determine how distribution and
revenue models may need to change going forward: • How can studios take a franchise-maximizing
view that creates different forms of derivative
• If more studios can distribute directly to content exclusive to theatrical releases while
audiences, what is the unique role of the also creating other content to attract and retain
theatrical release? How can theaters offer a subscribers to their fledgling
differentiated experience from the modern streaming services?
living room—and a differentiated window
for studios? • How can studios and distributors attract more
creatives who may be interested in storytelling
• How could changes to movie revenue models beyond the traditional TV-or-movie options?
influence how studios approach licensing
strategies over a movie’s lifetime? How would While the pandemic has hit the movie industry hard,
these changes align with broader direct- it also offers an opportunity for the business models
to-consumer strategies? of a time-honored tradition to loosen up and better
meet the challenges of the digital world. Streaming
• How can studios take a portfolio approach to is becoming a necessity, following fundamental
movie distribution? In which instances are shifts in content distribution and on-demand
streaming and PVoD the best solution, and audiences. Navigating these shifts can require time
what are the trade-offs against other windows and patience, and may challenge traditional ways of
that may be profitable but declining? developing, distributing, and monetizing content.
Media and entertainment companies able to see the
• Will streaming and PVoD be able to fully opportunities in change and the value of thinking
replace theatrical revenues and will they differently can be empowered to help define the
cannibalize future revenue streams? Or is there fast-approaching future.
a more nuanced and strategic way to think
about the value of each?

13
Digital media trends

Endnotes

1. Richard Trenholm, “Coronavirus movie delays: New release dates for 2020 and 2021 blockbusters,” CNET,
November 3, 2020.

2. IndieWire, “Coronavirus cancellations: Every film, TV show, and event affected by the outbreak,” August 11,
2020.

3. Average theater ticket prices have increased from US$7.89 in 2010 to US$9.16 in 2020, according to National
Association of Theater Owners (NATO).

4. SNL Kagan, 2020.

5. Georg Szalai and Paul Bond, “Should streaming services expect razor-thin profit margins?,” Hollywood Reporter,
November 26, 2019.

6. Deloitte Insights, Digital media trends, 14th edition: A snapshot of consumer media consumption, October 2020.

7. “The data represented in this figure is based on worldwide theatrical, video, and TV revenue for major movie
studios. It excludes “other revenue” which makes up less than 5% of total studio revenue.” Source: SNL Kagan.

8. Box Office Mojo data; Deloitte analysis.

9. Deloitte Insights, Digital media trends, 14th edition, October 2020.

10. Ibid.

11. Matthew Fox, “AMC theater chain plunges 14% after it warns of potential bankruptcy and says it plans to raise
cash,” Markets Insider, October 20, 2020.

12. Motion Pictures of Association, 2019 THEME report, 2019.

13. Ibid.

14. Deloitte Insights, Digital media trends 14th edition: A snapshot of consumer media consumption, June 2020. Data
was collected in May 2020.

15. Deloitte Insights, Digital media trends, 14th edition, October 2020.

16. Andrew Wallenstein, “Premium VOD films have a pricing problem,” Variety, July 28, 2020.

17. Pamela McClintock, “AMC Theatres, Universal collapsing theatrical window to 17 days in unprecedented pact,”
Hollywood Reporter, 28 July 2020.

18. Doug Shapiro, “One clear casualty of the streaming wars: profit,” The Startup, Medium.com, October 27, 2020.

19. Deloitte Insights, Digital media trends 14th edition, October 2020.

20. The data represented in this figure includes the average advertising and marketing costs (prints & advertising or
“P&A”) paid by studios in relation to a movie release and the average revenue share of box office ticket sales that
a studio receives (“theatrical revenue”), for movies released between 2016 and 2019. Source: SNL Kagan, 2020.

21. Brent Lang and Matt Donnelly, “Breaking down MGM’s costly ‘No Time to Die’ dilemma,” Variety, October 30,
2020.

14
 The future of movies

Acknowledgments

Special thanks to David Ciampa, Shashank Srivastava, and Todd Beilis for their guidance and expertise.

About the authors

Chris Arkenberg | [email protected]

Chris Arkenberg is a research manager with the Deloitte Center for Technology, Media &
Telecommunications. He has 20 years of experience focusing on how people and organizations interact
with transformational technologies. Arkenberg is also an avid video game enthusiast, stomping the
virtual grounds since the days of the 2600.

David Cutbill | [email protected]

David Cutbill has worked in the media and entertainment industry for more than 30 years in both
Europe and the United States. He works extensively across the industry value chain from production
and distribution through broadcast and online social, media and entertainment platforms.

Jeff Loucks | [email protected]

Jeff Loucks is the executive director of the Deloitte Center for Technology, Media, &
Telecommunications, Deloitte Services LP. He conducts research and writes on topics that help
companies capitalize on technological change. An award-winning thought leader in digital business
model transformation, Loucks is especially interested in the strategies organizations use to adapt to
accelerating change. His academic background complements his technology expertise. Loucks has a
bachelor of arts in political science from The Ohio State University, and a master of arts and PhD in
political science from the University of Toronto.

Kevin Westcott | [email protected]

Kevin Westcott is a vice chairman and leads the US Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT)
practice of Deloitte, as well as serves as the global Telecommunications, Media and Entertainment
(TME) practice leader. Westcott has more than 30 years of experience in strategic and operational
planning, as well as implementing global business change and technology projects for major telecom
and media organizations. His industry experience spans film, television, home entertainment,
broadcasting, over-the top, publishing, licensing, and games. Westcott is an author of Deloitte’s Digital
Media Trends survey, a coauthor of Deloitte’s Digital Media Maturity Model, and speaks regularly on
media consumption trends.

15
Digital media trends

Contact us
Our insights can help you take advantage of change. If you’re looking for fresh ideas to address your
challenges, we should talk.

Industry leadership

Kevin Westcott
TMT national industry leader | Principal | Deloitte Consulting LLP
+1 310 480 8089 | [email protected]

Kevin Westcott is a vice chairman and leads the US Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT)
practice of Deloitte, as well as serves as the global Telecommunications, Media and Entertainment
(TME) practice leader. Westcott has more than 30 years of experience in strategic and operational
planning, as well as implementing global business change and technology projects for major telecom
and media organizations.

The Deloitte Center for Technology, Media & Telecommunications

Jeff Loucks
Executive director | The Deloitte Center for Technology, Media & Telecommunications | Deloitte Services LP
+1 614 477 0407 | [email protected]

Jeff Loucks is the executive director of Deloitte’s Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) center.
He conducts research and writes on topics that help companies capitalize on technological change.

16
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