How COVID-19

is changing the world:

a statistical perspective
Volume II
© 2020 Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities.
Some rights reserved.

This publication is copyrighted under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion
whatsoever on the part of the United Nations or other contributing organizations concerning the legal status of any country, territory,
city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted and dashed lines on maps represent
approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement.

The publication has not been formally edited.

The Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) provided desktop publishing, with
modifications on covers prepared by UNCTAD.
Contributing organisations
Asian Development Bank (ADB)
African Development Bank (AfDB)
Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf (GCC)
European Central Bank (ECB)
Eurostat
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
International Labour Organization (ILO)
Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR)
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Partnership in Statistics for Development in the 21st Century (PARIS21)
United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF)
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN ESCAP)
United Nations Economic and Social Commission for West Asia (ESCWA)
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA)
United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)
United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women)
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)
United Nations Human Settlement Programme (UN Habitat)
United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO)
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC)
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UN DESA/PD)
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistics Division (UN DESA/SD)
United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
Universal Postal Union (UPU)
World Bank (WB)
World Trade Organization (WTO)

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 The Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities (CCSA)
The CCSA is comprised of international and supranational organizations whose mandates include the provision of international official
statistics guided by the Principles Governing International Statistical Activities (https://unstats.un.org/unsd/ccsa/principles_stat_ac-
tivities/) and which have a permanent embedded statistical service that maintains regular contact with countries. The mandate of the
CCSA is to ensure the efficient functioning of the international statistical system, to assist Governments in the development of common
statistical standards, platforms and methodologies, and to provide inter-institutional support, outreach and advocacy for high-quality
official statistics.

More information can be found on the CCSA webpage: https://unstats.un.org/unsd/ccsa/

2
 Introduction
We are pleased to present the second volume of “How COVID-19 is changing the world: a statistical perspective”.
Since the release of the first volume in May 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has continued to rage around the world. By the end of
August, countries around the globe had reported over 25 million cases, with nearly 850,000 deaths attributed to the disease.
The pandemic presents tough choices. National and regional governments, local communities, health and school systems, as well
as families and businesses are being forced to take many difficult decisions: How to re open safely? How to safeguard people’s
lives and protect their livelihoods? Where to allocate scarce resources? How to protect those unable to protect themselves?
Answers to questions like these will affect our short-term success in battling the virus and could have impacts for generations to
come.
More than ever, the world needs reliable and trustworthy data and statistics to inform these important decisions. The United
Nations and all member organizations of the Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities (CCSA) collect and make
available a wealth of information for assessing the multifaceted impacts of the pandemic. This report updates some of the global
and regional trends presented in the first volume and offers a snapshot of how COVID-19 continues to affect the world today
across multiple domains. The report also highlights the impact of the pandemic on specific regions and population groups.
The information contained herein is even grimmer than in the first volume, confirming the unprecedented impact of the pandemic
on the economic and social fabric of our societies. Some key findings are as follows:
• Trends in COVID-19 caseloads differ widely by country, illustrating the unpredictable nature of the pandemic and the
importance of remaining vigilant in our battle against the virus;
• Global foreign direct investment is now projected to fall by as much as 40 percent in 2020;
• Global manufacturing output fell by 20 per cent in April 2020 compared to the same period of the previous year, accelerating
an already declining trend;
• The pandemic is pushing an additional 71 to 100 million people into extreme poverty;
• Globally, the first quarter of 2020 saw a loss of the equivalent to 155 million full-time jobs, a number that increased to 400
million in the second quarter, with lower- and middle-income countries hardest hit;
• Simulations suggest a steep and unprecedented decline in the Human Development Index (HDI), undermining six years of
progress;
• As recipients of 43 per cent of global remittance inflows, the developing economies of Asia and the Pacific are especially
vulnerable to the global economic stall and its impact on the transfer of remittances by migrant workers;
• To mitigate the impact of the pandemic in Africa, the African Development Bank has invested USD 10.2 billion to establish a
Crisis Response Facility;
• Data from 31 countries over the period 2014 to 2019 show that about 1 in 5 people reported having experienced
discrimination on at least one of the grounds prohibited by international human rights law, highlighting the need for COVID-19
responses to ensure that the pandemic does not exacerbate existing forms of discrimination;
• Even before the pandemic, women did three times more unpaid domestic and care work than men; since the pandemic,
however, data from rapid gender assessment surveys indicate that women in some regions are shouldering the extra burden
of an increased workload, particularly in terms of childcare and household chores.
The report also provides a glimpse of the challenges faced by national statistical systems. At a time when reliable information is
more essential than ever, many systems are struggling to compile basic statistics, due in part to the pandemic but also because of
a lack of resources needed to modernize operations and infrastructures.
The data and statistics presented in this report are but the tip of an iceberg. Readers are encouraged to visit the websites of the
contributing organizations, where they can find additional information on the impact of COVID-19 and other topics.
Lastly, we would like to give special thanks to the CCSA secretariat (Statistics Division of UN DESA) and to the teams at UNICEF
and in the Population Division of UN DESA, led by Mark Hereward and John Wilmoth, respectively, which joined forces to edit this
collection of statistical information about the pandemic. Without their commitment and dedication, this report would not have been
possible.

Angela Me Haishan Fu
Chief, Research and Trend Analysis Branch Director, Development Data Group
UNODC World Bank
Co-chair CCSA Co-chair CCSA #StatisticalCoordination

3
 Table of
Contents

4
COVID-19 6
Differential success in mitigating the pandemic (UN DESA/PD)..............................................8

ECONOMIC IMPACT 10
Global banking up in the initial phase of COVID-19 (BIS) .................................................... 12
Need for high-quality data on a timely basis (ECB)...............................................................14
Aviation standstill with slow and shallow recovery (ICAO).................................................... 16
Working hours drop significantly (ILO)................................................................................18
Small, medium and vulnerable (OECD).............................................................................. 20
Many more children likely in monetary poor households (UNICEF) ........................................ 22
Dramatic drop in foreign direct investment (UNCTAD)...........................................................24
Slow recovery after production slump (UNIDO)....................................................................26
Disruption of the international postal supply chain (UPU)......................................................28
About 71 to 100 million people pushed into extreme poverty (WB).........................................30
Restrictions in exports (WTO)............................................................................................32

SOCIAL IMPACT 34
Addressing widespread discrimination (OHCHR).................................................................... 36
Human Development to decline for the first time since 1990 (UNDP)...................................... 38
Adequate catch-up strategies to lessen impact on learning (UNESCO)..................................... 40
Forcibly displaced disproportionally affected (UNHCR)............................................................42
Violence against women during COVID-19 (UNODC) ........................................................... 44
Gender inequality as society’s pre-existing condition (UN Women)...........................................46

REGIONAL IMPACT 48
Potential risk to remittances in Asia and the Pacific (ADB)..................................................... 50
AfDB’s response activities (AfDB) ............................................................................. .........52
Effects on the EU labour market (Eurostat)......................................................................... 54
GCC countries’ intervention policies (GCC-Stat) .................................................................. 56
Impact on poverty and inequality in Latin America (ECLAC)................................................... 58
Impact on older persons in the Arab region (ESCWA)........................................................... 60

STATISTICAL IMPACT 62
Impact on censuses of agriculture and mitigation measures (FAO) ........................................ 64
NSOs and communicating COVID-19 (PARIS21)....................................................................66
Dashboards to monitor the COVID-19 impact (UN DESA/SD)..................................................68
Data in support of COVID-19 response in cities (UN Habitat) ............................................... 70
Responses by National Statistical Systems in Asia and the Pacific (UN ESCAP)..........................72
Maintaining civil registration and vital statistics during the pandemic in Africa (UNECA)..............74
The impact of COVID-19 on tourism statistics (UNWTO).........................................................76

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 Covid-19

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#StatisticalCoordination

7
 COVID-19

Differential success in mitigating the pandemic

Countries have experienced the COVID-19 pandemic under various circumstances and have adopted a variety
of policy responses. Accordingly, they have experienced a wide range of trends in their daily caseloads.

Figure 1. Early epidemics Figure 2. Initial success, ongoing challenges

Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at https://covid-19.who.int/.

All countries have been challenged by the novel coronavirus, August. Meanwhile, the fire has raged without stop since late
but they have not all fared the same. Here, distinctive patterns February in Iran, where containment remains challenging.
are illustrated using daily counts of new confirmed cases as Like Italy, several countries in Europe and elsewhere reduced
reported to the World Health Organization. a large outbreak to a slow burn but remain at risk for flare-ups
Early scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic often depicted (figure 2). Like Iran, in several countries, caseloads have been
waves, including a possible second wave in late 2020. On the rising or remain at high levels (figure 3). Like China and the
ocean, waves follow troughs with a predictable rhythm. For Republic of Korea, some countries successfully mitigated the
pandemic influenza, a summer trough has often been followed epidemic, maintaining or reducing case counts close to zero,
by a fall or winter wave. Yet daily case counts of COVID-19 but all remain at risk for flare-ups (figure 4).
have followed various patterns, without a consistent summer Few locations have seen epidemics that could be compared
trough or a predictable second wave. to a fire storm. The most prominent examples are cities or
A forest fire may be a more appropriate metaphor for the regions within countries where the epidemic initiated or was
spread of COVID-19. Both chaotic and unpredictable, a forest concentrated, including Hubei province, northern Italy and
fire may burn slowly in a controlled way; it may become larger New York City.
and more difficult to contain; or it may rage out of control like For a successful re-opening, countries must remain vigilant in
a fire storm. Airborne embers may land on dry wood, igniting a the face of COVID-19. Just as a single ember can rekindle a
new blaze or reigniting an old one. Wind and other factors may fire that had been brought under control, the virus can easily
accelerate the spread. return to a population where it had been suppressed.
Four countries with early epidemics—China, the Republic of Stopping the uncontrolled spread of the virus requires a
Korea, Italy and the Islamic Republic of Iran—illustrate the new coordinated strategy, clear messaging and social solidarity.
metaphor (figure 1). China and the Republic of Korea quickly Even without a vaccine, countries can take decisive action to
tamed the forest fire in February and early March and have mitigate the pandemic and to create the essential conditions
contained the blaze well since then. Italy controlled a fire that for economies to reopen safely.
raged during March and April, reducing it to a slow burn in June
and July. Yet all three countries have seen flare-ups in July or

8
COVID-19

Figure 3. Rising or high caseloads Figure 4. Few cases, effective suppression

Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at https://covid-19.who.int/.

Note:
• Figures prepared by United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, using data
from the World Health Organization, Coronavirus Disease (COVID 19) Dashboard, https://covid19.who.int/ (data last
updated 30 August, 12:47 pm CEST). Observations are 7-day moving averages; therefore, the last data point for each
country corresponds to 26 August.
• The vertical axes of figures 1 and 2 run from 0 to 8,000 cases; for figure 3, from 0 to 70,000; for figure 4, from 0 to 150.
• Confirmed cases are an imperfect measure of disease dynamics, both because they omit unreported cases and
because their trend may differ from the trend in deaths. Further analysis using all forms of available data is likely to yield
additional insights.

References:
Kristine A. Moore and others. “The future of the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons learned from pandemic influenza”, Center for
Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), University of Minnesota, 30 April 2020, https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/
default/files/public/downloads/cidrap-covid19-viewpoint-part1_0.pdf.
NBC News, Meet the Press, interview with Michael Osterholm, 21 June 2020, https://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=d_3cQZQLxJo.

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 Economic
Impact

10
#StatisticalCoordination

11
 ECONOMIC

Global banking up in the initial phase of COVID-19

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) statistics show that global cross-border bank credit surged in the first
quarter of 2020, accompanied, in particular, by a substantial increase in foreign claims on the US official sector.
In contrast, credit on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) stagnated. Lastly, the pandemic-
induced volatility in financial markets contributed to notable jumps in global banks’ derivatives positions.

Figure 1. Global cross-border claims1

Source: BIS locational banking statistics.

1
Quarterly changes are adjusted for breaks-in-series and exchange rate fluctuations. The annual growth rates are
calculated based on the adjusted changes for the last four quarters.
2
Includes claims on international organisations (in addition to claims unallocated by counterparty residence).

Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, banks’ Another BIS dataset, the consolidated banking statistics
global cross-border claims surged in the first quarter of 2020. (CBS), tracks the globally consolidated positions of banks
International banking credit is here measured by the BIS headquartered in a given country. They cover global banks’
locational banking statistics (LBS), which follow balance of foreign claims—i.e., cross-border claims and local claims
payments residence-based concepts and track the claims booked by affiliates abroad (excluding inter-office positions).
(assets) and liabilities of banks located in a particular country. These data show that non-US banks’ foreign claims on the
Cross-border claims rose (on a break- and exchange rate- United States surged by nearly $950 billion in Q1 2020, the
adjusted basis) by $2.6 trillion in Q1 2020 (figure 1). This largest quarterly increase on record. Their local claims in local
increased their year-on-year growth rate to 10% at end-March currencies—i.e., dollar-denominated claims on US residents
2020, up from 6% a quarter before. Claims on borrowers in booked by the US-based affiliates of non-US banks—
advanced economies, esp. the United States, and offshore accounted for much of this expansion.
financial centres expanded the most.

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ECONOMIC

Figure 2. Claims on EMDEs

Source: BIS locational banking statistics; BIS consolidated banking statistics on a guarantor basis.
1
Data at end-4Q 2019.

A key factor was the significant rise (by $560 billion) observed Foreign bank lending to EMDEs is highly concentrated (figure
for non-US banks’ foreign claims on the US official sector, 2, right-hand panel). At end-March 2020, five bank nationalities
which includes the US government and the Federal Reserve (UK, US, Japanese, Spanish and French banks) accounted for
(US data show that non-US banks’ branches and agencies in almost two thirds of all foreign claims on EMDEs (blue bars).
the United States held $870 billion of reserves at the Federal
The CBS also reveal a significant increase in the market value
Reserve at end-Q1 2020, up from $550 billion at end-2019).
of banks’ derivatives positions at the time of the pandemic
The annual growth rate of cross-border claims on EMDEs escalation. This is likely to have reflected the bout of market
continued to decline from already low levels: it fell to 1.8% as volatility observed in the first quarter of 2020, which widened
of end-March 2020, compared to 3.7% at mid-2019 (figure 2, the gap between market and contract prices and pushed
left-hand panel). derivatives contracts “into the money” for either the reporting
banks or their counterparties.

Metadata:
• BIS international banking statistics cover the balance sheets of internationally active banks. The locational statistics pro-
vide information about the geographical and currency composition of banks’ assets and liabilities, including intragroup
business. The consolidated statistics measure banks’ country risk exposures on a worldwide consolidated basis. Both
data sets are collected under the auspices of the Committee on the Global Financial System and reported to the BIS at
a country, rather than individual bank, level.

Source:
• BIS international banking statistics at end-March 2020, BIS Statistical release, 22 July 2020.

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 ECONOMIC

Increase of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase

Programme
In crisis times there is even more a need for high-quality data to be available on a timely basis. The European
Central Bank (ECB) and the national central banks (NCBs) offer assistance to reporting agents to ensure that
data remains fit for purpose. The European Central Bank has introduced a Pandemic Emergency Purchase
Programme (PEPP) to support the euro area banking sector, firms and households through the COVID-19
crisis.

Table 1. Purchases under the PEPP (Euro millions) Table 2. Breakdown of cumulative net purchases
under the PEPP

2020 Monthly net purchases Mar-May 2020 Euro millions

Asset Backed Securities 0

March 15,444
Covered Bonds 3,128
April 103,366 Corporate Bonds 17,620

May 115,855 Commercial Paper 34,845

Public Sector Securities 384,464

June 85,423
Total 440,057

Note: On 4 June 2020 the Governing Council decided Note: Breakdown of holdings as at end-July 2020 under
to increase the €750 billion envelope for the Pandemic the PEPP (Figures may not add up due to rounding.
Emergency Purchase Programme to €1,350 billion. Figures are preliminary and may be subject to revision)

Despite the current coronavirus pandemic, the ECB is exceptional circumstances surrounding the performance of
determined to continue collecting data on a timely basis and of day-to-day operations underlying the statistical reporting.
a quality that is fit for purpose. This will allow the ECB to have The ECB has therefore invited the national central banks
the necessary statistical information at its disposal to adjust all and reporting agents to find pragmatic solutions within the
of its measures, should this be needed, to safeguard liquidity existing legal framework to keep data reporting within limits
conditions in the banking system and to ensure the smooth that are manageable for reporting agents, while maintaining
transmission of its monetary policy. the quality of the statistical information at a sufficiently high
This statistical information contributes to the maintenance of level.
price stability and the smooth conduct of policies pursued In case of difficulties, reporting agents are asked to contact
by the competent authorities responsible for the supervision their national central banks and the ECB for assistance. The
and resolution of financial institutions, for markets and ECB and the national central banks cooperate closely with
infrastructures, and for the stability of the financial system. other European institutions and bodies. Together with the
Many reporting agents have adopted remote working reporting agents, the ECB will rise to these unprecedented
arrangements. Meanwhile, the continuity and quality of challenges, thus ensuring that the data and statistics required
statistical information reporting may be challenged by the to support the necessary policy measures are fit for purpose.

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ECONOMIC

Link to statistics and metadata:

• Statistical Data Warehouse website
• Statistics webpage on ECB website
• Euro area statistics website
• ECB and SSM websites

Sources:
• ECB communication to reporting agents on the collection of statistical information in the context of COVID-19, ECB, 15
April 2020.
• Supervisory reporting measures in the context of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, ECB, 15 April 2020.
• Pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)
• Our response to the coronavirus emergency, Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, the ECB Blog, 19 March 2020.

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 ECONOMIC

Aviation standstill with slow and shallow recovery

The global aviation came to a halt in the course of wide-scale lockdown and travel restrictions across all
regions. Air travel demand was crippled with stagnant recovery anticipating a long shadow of the crisis.

Figure 1. Air traffic demand decline by region

Source: ICAO ADS-B operational data.

Figure 2. Passenger revenue loss by region

Source: ICAO Economic Impact Analysis of COVID-19 on Civil Aviation.

Since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, both capacity 264 million, respectively. Air cargo demand also reached its
offered and travel demand plunged. The situation got historical low level, declining by -28%. Demand for medical
worsened alongside the widespread of the virus. Following the supplies as well as essential goods has withheld air freight
global pandemic declarations, air travel was decimated amidst traffic from collapsing.
the prolonged large-scale lockdown and travel restrictions Revenue streams of the industry evaporated. According to
enforced in most part of the world. ICAO’s estimates, airlines have lost approximately USD 160
Economic impact analysis of the International Civil Aviation billion in passenger revenue for the first six months of the year,
Organization (ICAO) reveals that in the month of April 2020 and airports and air navigation service providers are expected
when almost all countries implemented full or partial lockdown, to lose around USD 52 billion and USD 6 billion, respectively.
air traffic fell drastically to nearly zero with unprecedented As the industry continues to find its way in the wake of the
contractions of over 90%. pandemic, gradual resurgence in air traffic was observed since
For the first half of 2020, number of passengers dropped by May 2020, driven mostly by domestic market, particularly in
56% compared to 2019, from 2.2 billion to 1 billion. Asia/ China where domestic traffic was recovered to 76% of the
Pacific recorded the biggest fall in passenger numbers by 466 June 2019 level. International traffic, however, remained
million, followed by Europe and North America, by 342 and sluggish with marginal improvements, indicating a slow return
to normalcy.

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ECONOMIC

Figure 3. Monthly passenger traffic compared to 2019

Source: ICAO ADS-B operational data.

Figure 4. Evolution of domestic passenger traffic of China

Source: ICAO ADS-B operational data.

Link to metadata:
• ICAO COVID-19 Air Traffic Dashboard: https://www.icao.int/sustainability/Pages/COVID-19-Air-Traffic-Dashboard.aspx
• ICAO Economic Impact Analysis of COVID-19 on Civil Aviation: https://www.icao.int/sustainability/Pages/Economic-Im-
pacts-of-COVID-19.aspx

Sources:
• ICAO Air Transport Statistics, ADS-B FlightAware
• ICAO Economic Impact Analysis of COVID-19 on Civil Aviation

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 ECONOMIC

Working hours drop during the pandemic much

larger than initially estimated, with a
disproportionate impact on women workers
Rising unemployment, working time reduction, temporary layoffs and job-search discouragement lead to an
estimated drop in aggregate working hours of 14 per cent in the second quarter of 2020 relative to the last
quarter of 2019. Women workers are especially bearing the brunt of the crisis, with female employment at
greater risk of disruption and an increased burden of unpaid work on women.

Figure 1. Estimated drop in aggregate working hours

(Estimated percentage drop in aggregate working hours compared to the per-crisis baseline,
4th quarter 2019, seasonally adjusted)

The closure of workplaces and implementation of other in working hours during the first quarter of the year. However,
containment measures, combined with the rapid deterioration as the pandemic began to spread globally, significant losses in
of economic conditions, led to immediate and massive losses working hours were observed in other regions as well.
in working hours over the first half of 2020. The ILO has The ILO also substantially revised upwards its estimate of
consistently updated the estimates of working hours losses global working-hour loss in the second quarter of 2020
it presents on its Monitor. The latest ILO estimates integrate compared with previous estimates. The latest estimates reveal
new data available and point to a considerably larger decline a decline in global working hours of 14 per cent in the second
in global working hours in the first half of 2020 than initially quarter of 2020 (up from the previous estimate of 10.7 per
estimated, reflecting the worsening situation in many parts cent), equivalent to 400 million full-time jobs. Lower-middle-
of the world. The new estimates suggest that workers in income countries are the hardest hit, experiencing a decline
developing countries, especially those in informal employment, of 16.1 per cent. The Americas is estimated to have suffered
have been affected to a greater extent than in past crises. a reduction in working hours of 18.3 per cent, or 70 million
During the first quarter of 2020, an estimated 5.4 per cent of FTE jobs, in the second quarter of 2020, compared with
global working hours were lost relative to the fourth quarter the previous estimate of 13.1 per cent. This is the highest
of 2019 (up from 4.8 per cent in the previous ILO estimate), working-hour loss among the major geographical regions and
equivalent to 155 million full-time jobs. Asia and the Pacific the largest upward revision since the previous edition of the
accounted for approximately 80 per cent of the global reduction ILO Monitor.

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ECONOMIC

Disproportionate impact of the COVID-19 more than 70 per cent of those employed in health and social
crisis on women and threat to the goal of work; in some developed regions, they account for almost
achieving gender equality 80 per cent of the health workforce. However, women in this
sector tend to be engaged in lower-skilled and lower-paid
Latest data reveal alarming trends that threaten to exacerbate jobs, which are associated with wider gender pay gaps (26
existing gender disparities and undo the modest gains per cent in high-income countries and 29 per cent in upper-
achieved in recent years in terms of gender equality in the middle-income countries). Health workers, in particular those
labour market. Despite some progress over previous decades, dealing with COVID-19 patients, are often subject to arduous
gender gaps were still considerable and persistent in labour (and sometimes dangerous) working conditions. Long working
markets around the world before the onset of the crisis: the hours in intensive care units, a lack of personal protective
gender gap in labour force participation was estimated at 27 equipment and other resources, understaffing and intense
percentage points in 2019, and among wage workers gender emotional stress expose health workers to higher risks of
pay gaps persist at around 20 per cent globally. infection and transmission, especially in low- and middle-
What is more, the crisis is disproportionately affecting women income countries.
workers in four main ways. First, a large proportion of women Fourth, during the crisis, the unequal distribution of increased
work in sectors severely affected by the crisis. Globally, care demands affects women disproportionately. In normal
almost 510 million, or 40 per cent of all employed women, times, women provide around three quarters of all unpaid care
work in hard-hit sectors, including accommodation and food work. The amount of time dedicated by women to unpaid
services; wholesale and retail trade; real estate, business and care work increases with the presence of children in the
administrative activities; and manufacturing (compared to 36.6 household. The closures of early childhood education centres,
per cent of employed men). care services and schools, along with the unavailability of older
Second, women in domestic work have been highly vulnerable relatives to provide support, have exacerbated care demands
to containment measures. According to ILO estimates, as at 4 during the crisis. The situation for single parents, 78.4 per cent
June, 55 million or 72.3 per cent of domestic workers around of whom around the world are women, can be even more
the world were at significant risk of losing their jobs and difficult, especially if they have to juggle continuing to work
incomes as a result of the lockdown and the lack of effective (on-site or remotely) and caring for children on their own.
social security coverage. The vast majority—around 37 million These disproportionate impacts on women could undo some
—of these at-risk domestic workers are women. of the gains in gender equality in the labour market and
Third, the overwhelming majority of workers in the health and exacerbate disparities.
social work sector are women. Globally, women represent

Source:
• The information presented here is an excerpt of the ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work, Fifth edition. Refer
directly to the Monitor for more details, including on data sources. For information on COVID-19 and labour statistics, see
ILOSTAT.

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 ECONOMIC

Small, medium and vulnerable

The sectors most directly affected by lockdown measures implemented by governments to curb the coronavirus
outbreak account for 40% of jobs in OECD countries. Small and medium enterprises, which are particularly
vulnerable to a prolonged lockdown, account for around three in four of these jobs.

Figure 1. Share of total employment in the sectors most directly affected by lockdown measures –
Breakdown by economic sector (percentage)

Note: Economic sectors are defined using the ISIC rev.4 classification: manufacturing of motor vehicles and other
transport equipment (29-30); construction (41-43); wholesale/retail trade and repair of motor vehicles (45-47); air
transport (51); accommodation and food service activities (55-56); real estate activities (68); professional, scientific
and technical activities (69-75); arts, entertainment and recreation (90-93); and other service activities (94-96). The
latter two are grouped together as other personal services in the figure.

An increasing number of countries are imposing containment continue to trade, whilst many others, such as restaurants and
measures in order to curb the spread of COVID-19 infections. cinemas, experience a complete halt in activity.
Most of the firms in the most affected sectors are Small and In most of the sectors, containment measures have led to a
Medium Enterprises (SMEs) which are particularly vulnerable complete or partial shutdown and, so, the 40% figure provides
to a prolonged lockdown. some sense of scale around the potential number of jobs that
Employment in the most directly affected sectors alone could be lost from a prolonged slowdown or the level of policy
account for 40% of total employment on average across OECD support that governments will need to provide (and in many
countries (figure 1). The impact of a shutdown on employment cases are) to support firms to retain staff.
will of course vary by sector as some, for example, food retail,

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ECONOMIC

Figure 2. Share of total employment in the sectors most directly affected by lockdown measures –
breakdown by firm size (percentage)

Especially at risk from a prolonged slow down are SMEs, Most sectors beyond those mentioned here are also likely to
with many anecdotal sources pointing to significant cash flow be adversely affected, directly through closure and temporary
problems and around one in three at risk of failure without shutdowns, or indirectly through supply-chain difficulties, staff
support. shortages, or impacts on productivity.
Figure 2 shows that SMEs account for the bulk of employment Moreover, it is likely that demand in the economy will be more
in the most affected sectors: 75% on average across OECD widely affected. For example, investments may be postponed
countries and nearly 90% in Greece and Italy. Microenterprises or cancelled, which will create both immediate and longer-
with less than 10 employees, probably the most at risk of cash term impacts on GDP levels and growth.
shortages, account for around 30% of employment in these
sectors, and up to 60% in Greece and Italy.

Additional information:
• Overview of policy measures already taken by governments to support SMEs
• Statistical Insights: Small, Medium and Vulnerable

Sources:
• OECD Annual National Accounts and OECD Structural Business Statistics

21
 ECONOMIC

Many more children likely in monetary poor

households
Combining the latest available GDP projections (as of June 2020) and historical trends in changes in income
distribution (in particular during years of crises), there could be between 90 and 117 million additional children
in monetary poor households in developing countries.

Figure 1. Number of children in monetary poor households (Estimates based on national poverty lines)

Source: Save the Children and UNICEF estimates.

Children suffer poverty differently from adults. What they needs and at higher risk to be in monetary poor households.
require to survive and thrive is different. Their dreams and Save the Children and UNICEF further estimated the impact of
hopes are different. Moreover, their needs ought to be COVD-19 on the scale of child poverty by analyzing economic
supported and taken care of by adults, not by themselves. projections by the IMF and World Bank, historical evidence
Thus, when measuring child poverty, it is important to use a on past income distribution changes from UNU WIDER, and
direct measurement that assesses their access and utilization demographic data from international household surveys for
of various goods and services such as education, health, over 100 low- and middle-income countries.
housing, and nutrition.
Unless urgent action is taken to protect families from the
However, sometimes this information is not readily available. financial hardships caused by the pandemic, there could be
In addition, children do have a right to a minimum standard between 676 and 703 million children in these circumstances
of living which could be measured indirectly by the level of in low- and middle-income countries by the end of 2020. More
consumption/income of the household. than half of these children live in sub-Saharan Africa and South
About a third of the children in developing countries were Asia (table 1).
living in monetary poor households before COVID-19. As The headcount rates are highest in Sub-Saharan Africa
families lose their sources of income and home environments and Latin America. The highest percentage increases in the
are turned upside down due to the socioeconomic impacts numbers of children are likely to occur in Central and East Asia
of COVID-19, children are likely to be deprived of their basic (figure 2).

22
ECONOMIC

Table 1. Projections of number of children in monetary poor households in low- and middle-income
countries by end of 2020

Number of children
(in million)
Lower Upper
Region Baseline bound bound
East Asia & Pacific 43 63 67
Europe & Central Asia 14 17 20
Latin America & Caribbean 72 87 90
Middle East & North Africa 41 49 49
South Asia 168 193 202
Sub-Saharan Africa 250 266 275
WORLD 586 676 703

Source: Save the Children and UNICEF estimates.

Figure 2. Children living in monetary poor households: Baseline and projections to end of 2020

Source: Save the Children and UNICEF estimates.

Note:
Information on the most optimistic (pessimistic) of the GDP projections for each country was combined with likely changes in
income distribution of varying strength (based on historical trends) to establish a range of possible paths for the percentage
and number of children in monetary poor households. The headcount based on national poverty lines are used as well as the
distribution of children by wealth quintiles.

Sources:
• Save the Children and UNICEF estimates based on data from: IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, June 2020; World
Bank, Global Economic Prospects, June 2020; World Bank, World Development Indicators, https://data.worldbank.org/
indicator/SI.POV.NAHC; United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Pop-
ulation Prospects: 2019 Revision; UN WIDER, World Income Inequality Database, April 2020 update; MICS and DHS
databases.

23
 ECONOMIC

Dramatic drop in foreign direct investment (FDI) in

2020 and 2021
COVID-19 has had immediate effects on FDI and will have potentially lasting consequences.

Figure 1. FDI inflows, 2015-2019 and 2020-2022 (Trillions of dollars)

Source: UNCTAD.

The COVID-19 pandemic will have an immediate and negative The outlook beyond 2021 remains highly uncertain. Even
impact in 2020 and will result in a further deterioration in before the COVID-19 outbreak, UNCTAD’s model forecasted
2021. UNCTAD forecasts that global FDI flows will fall by as a stagnant trend (-3 per cent in 2020 and +1 per cent in
much as 40 percent in 2020, compared with their 2019 value 2021) as a result of political and trade tensions and an overall
of $1.5 trillion. A fall of this magnitude would bring FDI below uncertain macroeconomic outlook. A U-shaped recovery,
$1 trillion ($900 billion) for the first time since 2005. FDI is that would bring FDI flows back to their pre-crisis trend line,
forecasted to decrease by a further 5 to 10 percent in 2021. is possible, but only at the upper bound of expectations.
Economic and geopolitical uncertainty look set to dominate
The forecasted fall will be more severe than the one
the investment landscape in the medium term. At the lower
experienced in the two years following the global financial
bound of the forecast, further stagnation in 2022 will leave the
crisis, which at its lowest level fell to $1.2 trillion in 2009.
value of global FDI well below 2019 levels.
This latest downturn, triggered by the pandemic, follows
FDI projects in the first months of 2020 are showing sharp
several years of negative or stagnant growth and compounds
declines. The numbers of announced greenfield projects in
a longer-term declining trend. The expected level of global
March decreased by more than 50 percent compared with the
FDI flows in 2021 would represent a 60 percent decline
2019 monthly average (figure 2). Greenfield FDI is forecast to
compared with 2015 levels—a fall from $2 trillion to less than
fall by more than 30 percent for the year as a whole compared
$900 billion.
with 2019.

24
ECONOMIC

Table 1. FDI inflows and forecasts, by group of Figure 2. Announced Greenfield projects monthly
economies and region, 2017-2020 and average number, 2019 and early 2020

2017 2018 2019 2020

Group of economies/ USD USD USD USD

region Billions Billions Billions Billions

World 1,700 1,495 1,540 920 to 1,080

Developed economies 950 761 800 480 to 600

Europe 570 364 429 240 to 300

North America 304 297 297 190 to 240

Developing economies 701 699 685 380 to 480

Africa 42 51 45 25 to 35

Asia 502 499 474 260 to 330

Latin America and the

Caribbean 156 149 164 70 to 100
Transition economies 50 35 55 30 to 40

% % % %
change change change change

World -14 -12 3 -40 to -30 All regions and economic groupings will see negative
FDI growth rates in 2020 (table I). Developed economies
Developed economies -15 -20 5 -40 to -25
as a group are forecast to experience a decline of between
Europe -16 -36 18 -45 to -30 -25 and -40 percent. FDI in Europe will fall most (-30 to -45
North America -40 -2 0 -30 to -20 per cent relative to 2019), as the severity of the virus adds to
Developing economies 7 0 -2 -45 to -30 economic fragility in several large economies.

Africa -10 22 -10 -40 to -25 Developing economies as a group are expected to see a
Asia 7 -1 -5 -45 to -30
larger decrease in the range of 30 per cent to 45. Unlike the
situation after the global financial crisis, developing
Latin America and the
Caribbean
economies appear more vulnerable to this crisis. Their
14 -5 10 -55 to -40
productive and investment footprints are less diversified
Transition economies -25 -31 59 -45 to -30
and thus more exposed to systemic risks.

Dependence on commodities for Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa and on GVC-intensive industries for Asia push
these regions to the frontline of the crisis from an FDI perspective. Longer term, developing economies may be further penalized
by the trend towards re-shoring or regionalization of international production, which could accelerate in response to the
COVID-19 crisis.

Sources:
• UNCTAD World Investment Report 2020. Available at: https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/wir2020_en.pdf
• UNCTAD FDI/MNE database www.unctad.org/fdistatistics

25
 ECONOMIC

Slow recovery after production slump in April 2020

Global manufacturing growth, which already exhibited a decelerating trend in 2019, declined further due to the
economic disruptions triggered by COVID-19. The latest production data for China already reached the same
production level as before the pandemic, while other countries seem to recover at a slower pace.

Figure 1. Index of world manufacturing output for Figure 2. Growth of manufacturing output of specific
specific regions (base 2015) regions, in percentage, compared to the same
period of the previous year

Source: UNIDO Statistics.

Note: The preliminary data are based on observed index numbers of industrial production (base year 2015) collected
by UNIDO’s Statistics Division. The data coverage is limited to those country groups that are severely affected by
COVID-19 containment measures and that have a high level of data availability.

Total world manufacturing production strongly declined over economic downturn will continue in the majority of countries or
the last months, whereas a slow recovery is already visible. whether the economy can be revived.
In January 2020, China’s manufacturing output dropped The majority of the observed countries, both industrialized
sharply primarily due to COVID-19 containment measures put and developing or emerging countries, registered a significant
in place (figure 1), although its economy recovered fast and decrease in production (figures 3 and 4). However, developing
already reached the production level of January in June 2020. and emerging industrial economies witnessed more intense
production decreases than industrialized countries. Only a few
The economic impact of COVID-19 in Latin America and in
countries, such as the Republic of Korea, maintained a stable
industrialized countries (grouped into North America, Europe
production level.
and East Asia) is visible from March 2020 onwards with its
trough mostly in April 2020 (figure 2). Many countries began Aggregate data for industrial groups reveal lower losses in
reopening their economies in May 2020, albeit not at full June for electronics, machinery and electrical equipment,
capacity. Global data already signal a recovery from May 2020 whereas in previous months the less affected groups were on
onwards, whereas the coming months will show whether the basic consumer needs, e.g. food and beverages (figure 5).

26
ECONOMIC

Figure 3. Growth of manufacturing output for Figure 4. Growth of manufacturing output for
industrialised countries in percentage, compared to developing and emerging countries in percentage,
the same period of the previous year compared to the same period of the previous year

Figure 5. Estimated growth by industry in percentage, compared

to the same period of the previous year, June 2020

Source: UNIDO Statistics.

The preliminary seasonally adjusted data are based on observed index numbers of industrial production (base year 2015)
collected by UNIDO’s Statistics Division. The data coverage is limited to countries severely affected by COVID-19 containment
measures and with a high level of data availability. Regional and world aggregates are calculated with weights referring to the
base year 2015. Further information on the methodology of index calculation and seasonal adjustment can be found here.
The most recent monthly data are available and regularly updated on the UNIDO Statistics data portal.

27
 ECONOMIC

Disruption of the international postal supply chain

due to COVID-19
• During the peak of the crisis, over one in two international mail items was “stranded”.
• Since then, the logistics supply chain has started recovering.
• International mail volumes remain depressed, down by 20% due to the crisis.

Figure 1. Cumulative number of announcements to Figure 2. Ratio of international outbound messages

the UPU Emergency Information System to international inbound messages

Source: UPU Emergency Information System (EmIS) Source: UPU big-data platform, EMSEVT3 messages.
messages. Note: Weekly ratio between announced dispatch and
Note: Daily cumulative sum of announcements at the reception of mail. Electronic Data interchange (EDI)
global level. messages at the office of exchange level.

Postal operators around the world have been facing hurdles items received by the importing country, one can measure the
in providing their traditional services due to the COVID-19 level of disruption in the international supply chain. In normal
outbreak. In particular, the sanitary measures taken by times, the ratio is slightly above one, as in a given week almost
governments have both restricted the access to labour (e.g. every exported item is received by the importing country.
social distancing) and transportation services (e.g., closure Since February 2020, the ratio has climbed and, during the
of airports). At the same time, in countries experiencing week of 27 April, reached its historic maximum. At the peak
economic shutdowns, postal services have been deemed vital of the crisis, for every 2.3 weekly item exported, only one
and continue to function in contrast to many other businesses. was notified as received. Since then, the ratio has decreased
and eventually stabilized close to pre-crisis levels during the
As the United Nations agency in charge of coordinating
second week of June.
cross-border postal activity, the Universal Postal Union (UPU)
monitors international mail in real time through its big data Problems related to the availability of labour (111 EmIS
platform. Through its Emergency Information System (EmIS), announcements) have also lengthened the clearance of items
it also collects essential information on the capacity of postal through customs, with bar-coded parcels showing an increase
operators to supply services. As of 16 July 2020, 137 countries from an average of 2 hours to over 64 hours during the peak
have submitted EmIS messages to announce disruptions in of the crisis.
their operations. The international transport capacity has been Overall, even if the international logistics postal chain has
the most impacted area, with over 316 EmIS messages sent proved resilient to the crisis, the volume of international mail
to the UPU since the beginning of the crisis (figure 1). has decreased. Estimates gathered from high-frequency
The disruption of air-routes has impacted the delivery of data indicate that the drop of international mail due to the
many postal items. Figure 2 displays the “stranded mail emergence of the pandemic is 20 per cent (figure 3). This is
ratio”, based on information from bar-coded mail items. By just one of the symptoms of the extent to which COVID-19 has
calculating the ratio between items ready to be exported and impacted international economic flows.

28
ECONOMIC

Table 1. Postal disruption due to COVID-19 Figure 3. Year-on-year weekly growth rates, all mail
classes

Number of EmIS announcements of a

disruption in the supply of postal services 217

Number of EmIS announcements of a

disruption of international mail flows 316

Maximum stranded mail ratio (outbound 2.3 (+134%

messages/inbound messages) reached compared to
during the crisis (April 2020) April 2019)
Drop in international postal volumes due
to the crisis (items, all mail classes) 20%

Average increase in customs clearance

time (inbound parcels) during the peak of from 2 to 64
the crisis hours
Source: UPU big-data platform.
Note: The dotted line reflects the trend.
Sources: UPU big-data platform. UPU EmIS The dashed vertical line indicates the closure of Wuhan
messages. UPU Quality Control System (QSC). international airport.
Notes: Drop in volumes obtained by comparing the The red curve depicts year-on-year growth rates.
period going from the 1 January to 13 July 2020 to the The spikes in 2019 coincide with a seasonal Holiday.
period 1 January to 13 July 2019.

Sources and links:

• UPU (2019), “The COVID-19 crisis and the postal sector”. https://www.upu.int/UPU/media/upu/publications/theCovid-
19CrisisAndThePostalSectorEn.pdf
• UPU Emergency Information System (EmIS).
• UPU Quality Control System (QCS).
• UPU official statistics are freely available in the following platform: https://www.upu.int/en/Universal-Postal-Union/Activi-
ties/Research-Publications/Postal-Statistics
• UPU postal big data is a collection of Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) messages sent between postal operators, cus-
toms and airlines. The EDI messages are the result of the implementation of UPU standards. Several guides on stan-
dards are available in the UPU website https://www.upu.int/en/Postal-Solutions/Programmes-Services/Standards
• A description on how to transform EDIs into bilateral postal flows and supply chain indicators is available in the following
two papers:
• Anson, J, Boffa, M, Helble and M. (2019). Consumer arbitrage in cross-border e-commerce. Rev Int Econ. 2019; 27:
1234– 1251. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12424
• Ansón, J, Arvis, J‐F, Boffa, M, Helble, M, Shepherd, B. Time, uncertainty and trade flows. World Econ. 2020; 00: 1– 18.
https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12942

29
 ECONOMIC

COVID-19 pushing 71 to 100 million people into

extreme poverty
COVID-19 is taking its toll on the world, causing deaths, illnesses and economic despair. This contribution
suggests that COVID-19 is pushing about 71 to 100 million people into extreme poverty, and that South Asia
and Sub-Saharan Africa might be the regions hardest hit.

Figure 1. The impact of COVID-19 on global poverty

Nowcasting global poverty is not an easy task. It requires increase in global poverty since 1998, when the Asian financial
assumptions about how to forecast growth, how such growth crisis hit. With the new forecasts, global poverty—the share of
will impact the poor and many other assumptions. Estimating the world’s population living on less than US $1.90 per day—is
how much global poverty will increase because of COVID-19 projected to increase from 8.2 per cent in 2019 to 8.8 per cent
is challenging and comes with much uncertainty. in 2020, or from 632 million people to 684 million people. The
projected decline over the same time period using the previous
This note is based on the latest household survey data for
Global Economic Prospects forecasts was from 8.0 per cent
166 countries in PovcalNet, an online tool for estimating
to 7.7 per cent. The slight change in the base number from 8.2
global poverty, with extrapolations using growth projections
to 8.0 per cent for 2019 happens because the revised growth
from the June 2020 edition of the World Bank’s Global
forecasts also changed for non-COVID reasons in some
Economic Prospects. Comparing these forecasts impacted by
countries. Taking this into account, the pandemic is driving
COVID-19 with the forecasts from the previous edition of the
a change in the 2020 estimate of the global poverty rate of
Global Economic Prospects published in January allows for an
0.9 percentage points. In absolute terms, it is estimated that
assessment of the impact of the pandemic on global poverty.
COVID-19 will push 71 million people into extreme poverty in
Whereas other factors may have worsened or improved
2020. In a downside scenario, which assumes that outbreaks
countries’ growth outlooks between January and June, most
persist longer than expected forcing lockdown measures to be
of the changes in the forecasts are due to the pandemic.
maintained or reintroduced, 100 million people will be pushed
The forecasts reveal that COVID-19 is likely to cause the first into poverty.

30
ECONOMIC

Figure 2. The regional distribution of the COVID-19-induced poor

Sources:
• http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/home.aspx
• https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects
• https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-impact-covid-19-global-poverty
• http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/765601591733806023/pdf/How-Much-Does-Reducing-Inequality-Mat-
ter-for-Global-Poverty.pdf

31
 ECONOMIC

COVID-19 and related export restrictions

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an enormous shock in the global demand for medical products. These
products depend largely on international trade and global supply chains which often were subject to
disruptions of manufacturing networks and international transport. This situation has been exacerbated by
export prohibitions and restrictions which some members had introduced to mitigate critical shortages at the
national level. As of mid-May, 85 countries and territories had imposed some form of export restrictions and
prohibitions on COVID-19 related products.

Figure 1. Number of export prohibitions and restrictions introduced to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, by
type of product and WTO membership status

Source: WTO Secretariat based on data available in the Trade Monitoring Report.

As of 18 May 2020, 85 countries and customs territories had Products (PPP). Sanitizers, pharmaceuticals and foodstuffs
introduced export prohibitions and restrictions to combat the have also been subject to export limitations, but to a lesser
COVID-19 pandemic, including 76 Members of the World extent (figure 1).
Trade Organization (WTO) and 9 non-WTO members from all
For how long will these measures be in place?
world regions (EU Member States are counted individually).
While it is not possible to determine the precise duration of all
Whereas these measures took different forms, including
measures, and measures could also be renewed, it is possible
export bans and non-automatic export licensing procedures,
to calculate their duration for those that have an end-date.
they had in common that they mostly prevented exports of
The information available to the WTO Secretariat suggests
products.
that roughly half of the export prohibitions and restrictions
What products are subject to export implemented in response to COVID-19 include a specific end-
restrictions? date (47%). For those measures with a known end-date, the
average duration is 98.4 days, with a median of 77 days. While
While there is considerable diversity in the types of products
approximately 70 per cent of the measures implemented in
affected by export restrictions, the majority of the measures
response to COVID-19 are intended to be in force for less than
have limited the exportation of face and eye protection,
three months, three measures indicate that they will remain in
protective garments, and gloves, sometimes referred to as
force for one year (figure 2).
Personal Protection Equipment (PPE) or Personal Protection

32
ECONOMIC

Figure 2. Duration in weeks of export measures Table 1. Prohibitions and restrictions introduced to
combat the COVID-19 pandemic by type of product

Share of world
exports
Section (category of products) (%)
COVID-19 test kits 0.1
Protective garments and the like 21.5
Disinfectants and sterilization products 17.0
Oxygen therapy equipment and pulse oximeters 4.8
Other medical devices and equipment 3.0
Other medical consumables 12.0
Vehicles 0.0
Others 0.5

How much trade is affected by these export restrictions?

It is challenging to have an exact measurement of the value of exports that is being affected by the export prohibitions and
restrictions, because most products covered by the measures do not have a specific tariff line or Harmonized System (HS) sub-
heading that fully identifies them, and the available export data are only at the HS sub-heading level. Consequently, it is only
possible to calculate rough estimates of the share of world exports affected by them. One way of making this rough estimate
for a narrow group of products is by matching the export restrictions with the HS codes covered by the joint World Customs
Organization’s and World Health Organization’s list of COVID-19-related products. Since only part of a given HS sub-heading is
related to the relevant products, these estimates have to be considered as upper limits of the affected trade flow, that is, they
may overestimate the actual value of the exports. Notwithstanding these methodological and data limitations, it would appear
that the export prohibitions and restrictions affect, in particular, protective garments and disinfectants and sterilization products,
where up to 21.5 and 17 per cent respectively of world trade may be affected by these measures.

Sources and references: 


• WTO Report on G-20 Trade Measures (mid-October to mid-May 2020)
https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news20_e/report_trdev_jun20_e.pdf
• WTO COVID-19 page: https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/covid19_e/covid19_e.htm

33
 Social
Impact

34
#StatisticalCoordination

35
 SOCIAL

Addressing widespread discrimination required to

rebuild better
New time series data show that gender, disability, racial, ethnic, migration and intersecting discrimination is
widespread. This data should guide COVID-19 responses to ensure that the pandemic does not exacerbate
existing forms of discrimination and that its cumulative and intersecting forms are mitigated.

Figure 1. Gender discrimination, 2014-2019 Figure 2. Prevalence of discrimination, 2014-2019

(difference between discrimination experienced (percentage)
by women and men, in percentage points)

New data released by OHCHR from household surveys on Americas, women in general experienced more discrimination
SDG indicator 10.3.1/16.b.1 reveal that about 1 in 5 people than men, between 1 and 4 percentage points. In Africa and
reported having personally experienced discrimination on at Asia, women also reported having personally experienced
least one of the grounds prohibited by international human more discrimination than men, on average 2 percentage
rights law, according to data from 31 countries over the points more in the countries for which data is available.
period 2014 to 2019. Women often witness discriminatory treatment in the spheres
of employment, health, education, and housing.
Despite limited data availability, the collection of data on
prevalence of discrimination is critical as a step towards Data disaggregated by disability status reveals that the highest
achieving the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and prevalence of discrimination experienced by those with
contributes towards the United Nations’ efforts to protect disabilities was recorded in Africa and Oceania, 39 and 35
people and rebuild better in the face of COVID-19. In addition, per cent respectively. In addition, on average, 1 in 3 people
data on the prevalence of discrimination disaggregated by have personally experienced discrimination, with higher levels
vulnerable and marginalized groups is particularly important still among women with disabilities. These women did not
to ensure that the challenges faced by these groups are mention disability as the most frequently experienced ground
identified and addressed. of discrimination, but religion, ethnicity, and sex, pointing to
the need for measures to tackle cumulative and intersecting
How are different groups impacted forms of discrimination.
by discrimination? Data disaggregated by racial, ethnic and migration status show
The collection of disaggregated data by gender reveals that that these population groups experienced more discrimination
women are more likely to be victims of discrimination than men. than the general population, on average two times more.
In New Zealand, women experienced more discrimination than This was the case in all the countries with available data. For
men on at least one of the grounds prohibited by international example, in Bolivia, 25 per cent of the indigenous peoples
human rights law, by 6 percentage points. In Europe and the reported having personally experienced discrimination,

36
SOCIAL
compared to 16 per cent of those not belonging to indigenous
or native groups. In Chile, those born abroad experienced 3 Figure 3. Availability of data on prevalence of
discrimination across the world, 2014-2019
times more discrimination than those born in Chile, 30 and 10
per cent respectively. In Canada, visible minorities experienced
2 times more discrimination compared to those that are
not visible minorities, 20 and 10 per cent respectively. The
Canadian Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities
as “persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-
Caucasian in race or non-white in colour”. In Europe, the
region where disaggregated data was the most available, 17
per cent reported having experienced discrimination, this ratio
increases to 44 per cent among national or ethnic minorities
and migrants.

The COVID-19 virus does not

discriminate, but its impact does
It is essential to collect timely and disaggregated data on facing racial and ethnic discrimination (e.g. people of African
experiences of discrimination to inform country’s COVID-19 descent, minorities and indigenous peoples, and women
response that mitigates the potential adverse effects of among them) due to inadequate access to health-care and
COVID-19 on those most left behind. Emerging scientific intersecting forms of structural discrimination that put them
studies show that many of those that were already experiencing on the front lines in so-called “essential” jobs that deepen
higher discrimination are also further negatively impacted by their vulnerability. States need to tackle discrimination more
COVID-19 on their health and socio-economic situation. The comprehensively, and address its overlapping and cumulative
data reveal that there are more deaths among the groups forms as well as its consequences on everyday life.

Link to metadata:
• https://www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/Indicators/Pages/HRIndicatorsIndex.aspx
• https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/indicators/database/

Sources:
• https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/COVID-19.aspx
• https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/COVID19Guidance.aspx
• https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=25768&LangID=E

37
 SOCIAL

Human Development to decline for the first time

since 1990
COVID-19, with its triple hit to health, education, and income, is causing declines in human development
worldwide. The pandemic lands on already growing inequalities that are amplifying its effect. Therefore, the use
of an equity lens in our response can mitigate its effects and contribute to long term development.

Figure 1. Change in Human Development Index value, 1990-2020

Change in Human Development Index value, annual

The Global
Financial Crisis
0.010

0.005

20 (a)
90

13
14
15
16
17
18
19
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12

20
19

20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
-0.005

-0.010

-0.015
2020 simulated change in
-0.020
COVID-19-adjusted HDI
a) The 2019 value is a provisonal estimate.

Source: Human Development Report Office simulations based on data from the International Telecommunications
Union, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Institute for Statistics, and the World Health
Organization.

COVID-19 has, so far, caused the death of over 500,000 The simulations also show the importance of promoting equity
people, an increase in the effective-out-of-school rates which in enhanced capabilities. In a scenario with more equitable
are expected to reach levels last seen in the mid-1980s for internet access—where each country closes the gap with the
primary education, and the largest contraction in economic leaders in its human development category—the decline in
activity since the Great Depression. human development would be more than halved. Increased
access to the internet would empower people with capabilities
When taking a capabilities approach, simulations suggest
to accommodate the mitigation measures (including the
conditions today would correspond to a steep and
physical closure of schools and workplaces). This would be
unprecedented decline in human development, equivalent to
eminently affordable. In 2018 it was estimated that $100
six years of progress.
billion would be needed to close the gap in internet access
About 9 in 10 children have been affected by school closures, in low- and middle-income countries—or about 1 percent of
but effects are unequally distributed. During the second the extraordinary fiscal programmes announced around the
quarter of 2020, 86 percent of children in primary education world so far.
have been effectively out-of-school in countries with low
Three principles are suggested to shape the response to
human development—compared with just 20 percent in
the crisis: Look at the response through an equity lens;
countries with very high human development.
Focus on people’s enhanced capabilities; Follow a coherent
multidimensional approach.

38
SOCIAL

Figure 2. COVID-19 adjusted Human Development Index value, 2000-2020

COVID-19-adjusted Human Development Index value Scenario:

Closing internet gap within
0.74 human development group

0.72

0.70
Scenario:
No internet
0.68

0.66

0.64
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Figure 3. Short-term effect

Short-term effective out-of-school
out-of-school rate for primary education, second quarter of 2020
rate for primary education,
second quarter of 2020(percentage of children)
(% of primary school–age primary school-age children)
85.9

74.2

Negative effect 59.6

of COVID-19
46.9
closure = 59.4
67.4
50.1
40.5 20.0
26.5
18.6
6.7 6.3 1.4 9.5
Low Medium High Very high World
Base, before COVID-19 closure Effective, during COVID-19 closure

Methodology:
To estimate the likely effects of the pandemic on people’s capabilities, a version of the Human Development Index (HDI) that
is more sensitive to the effects of COVID-19 was built, retaining the standard HDI dimensions but modifying the education
indicators to reflect the effects of school closures and mitigation measures. What matters for capabilities is whether students
are actually engaged in educational activities, which depends on physical and virtual (internet-based) access to schools
and learning resources. After adjusting the percentage of primary school-age children facing school closures to account
for households with access to the Internet, the effective out-of-school rate increases substantially everywhere, even under
the optimistic assumption that all children with internet access will be able to continue their education online. Being out of
school—even for a limited amount of time—is expected to have long-term impacts on learning, earning potential and well-
being.

Sources:
• Human Development Report Office. 2020 Human Development Perspectives: COVID-19 and Human Development:
Assessing the Crisis, Envisioning the Recovery. http://hdr.undp.org/en/hdp-covid
• The adjusted HDI also uses International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections of gross national income per capita for 2020.
Life expectancy at birth in 2020 (based on the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division, 2019 Revision of World Population Prospects) is adjusted by the potential effects of COVID-19 on health, taking
the low-impact scenario from a recent study published in the Lancet Global Health for child mortality.
• Data sources for the simulation and charts: International Telecommunications Union, United Nations Educational, Scien-
tific and Cultural Organization Institute for Statistics, and World Health Organization.

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The impact of school closures on learning can be

lessened with adequate catch-up strategies
Failing to deploy catch-up measures (e.g. training teachers, remedial classes) would hamper efforts to generate
vital skills for societies.

Figure 1. Projected learning losses with and without Figure 2. Projected learning losses with and without
catch-up strategies: Primary eduction catch-up strategies: Secondary education

Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics.

Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics.
Note: Vertical axis is truncated.
Note: Vertical axis is truncated.

The effects of the COVID-19 crisis on learning are particularly scenarios with and without ‘catch-up’ strategies, respectively.
worrisome, especially at the primary education level. Basic They project that learners will sustain education losses during
competencies are the building blocks for all education and are the pandemic due to school days lost.
strong predictors of life opportunities. They are both the easiest Education systems implementing remedial measures will help
to lose when schooling is interrupted and the hardest to regain at least some learners’ catch-up to the pre-COVID trajectory.
once schooling restarts. Yet, they present a fertile area for Those that fail to do so will have to wait until the cohort of
improvement as the techniques to acquire foundational skills students affected by the pandemic move on to the secondary
are better known than those at the secondary level. level. In the case of secondary education, learning levels will
Learning losses measured soon after the disruption, as a return to the pre-pandemic trend by 2024. But this return will
study from South Africa shows, are greater than that which take almost a decade for learners in systems that go without
actual days lost suggest. Yet, it is likely—as research in these measures given the lasting impact on primary graduates
Pakistan years after a recent earthquake showed—that the who did not receive remedial support.
impacts worsen over time if learning losses are not addressed, Failing to deploy catch-up strategies should be avoided at
as learning is cumulative and children who are left behind lag all cost as this would hamper efforts to generate vital skills
even further behind. Thus, it is a prudent assumption that such that citizens need to function in societies and economies. Yet,
losses will worsen without adequate education interventions. many countries are still not considering remedial actions, such
In figures 1 and 2, the green ‘pre-COVID’ curve assumes a as increasing learning time or accelerating learning (figure 3).
reasonable trend of two per cent gains per year in primary Similarly, teachers in many countries have yet to be trained to
education based on previous work by the UNESCO Institute use remote learning platforms (figure 4).
for Statistics (UIS). The yellow and red trajectories signify

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Figure 3. Percentage of countries planning selected Figure 4. Percentage of countries that trained
actions in response to the pandemic teachers to use remote learning platforms

Metadata:
• SDG 4.1.1 Indicator: http://tcg.uis.unesco.org/metadata-for-sdg-4-global-and-thematic-indicators/
• UNESCO Institute for Statistics based on the results of the 1st Iteration of the UNESCO-UNICEF-World Bank Survey on
National Education Responses to COVID-19 School Closures.

References:
Gustafson, Martin and Carol Nuga Deliwe (2020), “How is the COVID-19 pandemic affecting educational quality in South
Africa? Evidence to date and future risks”, RESEP.
UIS (2019). How fast can levels of proficiency improve? Examining historical trends to inform SDG 4.1.1 scenarios.

41
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Forcibly displaced disproportionally affected by

COVID-19
The three interlocked health, protection, and socio-economic crises caused by COVID-19 are disproportionally
affecting the forcibly displaced. More accurate statistics are needed in all three domains to better understand
the impact of the pandemic and devise appropriate responses.

Figure 1. UNHCR weekly refugee registration

In the past three months, the COVID-19 pandemic has greatly deportation if reported to authorities. While a total of 5,000
intensified, with the number of confirmed daily cases worldwide persons of concern to UNHCR have officially tested positive
on a continuous increasing trend and hitting new highs almost thus far, this is considered a serious under-reporting, given that
on a daily basis. While very few people and places are left 134 refugee-hosting countries are reporting local transmission.
unscathed by the pandemic, its impact is the greatest for
Secondly, measures implemented by governments to limit the
groups of people who were already most vulnerable before
spread of COVID-19, including limiting freedom of movement
the crisis, such as the almost 80 million people who had to flee
and border closures, are having a profound negative impact
their homes because of war, violence, human right violations
on the right of people fleeing war and persecution to access
and persecution, both within their own countries (internally
displaced) or across international borders (refugees and
the protection they need. As mentioned in the previous brief,
asylum-seekers). The disproportionate impact of COVID-19 refugee registration, which is an essential protection activity
on forcibly displaced people is compounded in three main conducted by UNHCR field staff, had dropped significantly
interdependent crises which aggravate their already critical in the period between mid-February and mid-April, and
vulnerabilities: a health crisis, a protection crisis, and a socio- has remained quite stable since, with activities reduced
economic crisis. to a minimum in the East Africa and Middle East/North
Firstly, the health crisis is exacerbated by the fact that many
Africa (MENA) regions, and continuing as much as feasible,
displaced persons live in crowded situations, and often have especially remotely, in other areas (see graph). For countries
limited access to health services due to legal and other that conduct refugee status determination, the right to seek
barriers. For instance, it has been estimated that the Kakuma asylum has also been affected as many countries have applied
refugee camp in Kenya with almost 200,000 residents has a administrative measures (e.g. temporary closure of asylum
population density about 1,000 times that of the host Turkana authorities, suspended asylum interviews, suspension of
community. Their situation is made more dire by the fact that registering asylum applications), which resulted in a drop in
most refugees live in developing countries with weak health the number of asylum applications as well as in the number
systems, and that asylum-seekers may fear detention and of decisions issued starting from March 2020. According to

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UNHCR protection data, at least 78 countries have partially or who have the least financial buffers to soften such shocks.
totally restricted access to national asylum procedures, with Rapid remote surveys by telephone are being undertaken
48 countries having restricted access to national registration by UNHCR and its partners in many regions, including the
(see graph below). Eurostat’s asylum statistics, for instance, Americas, MENA, and East Africa, to assess the needs of its
show a significant drop in asylum applications registered in assisted populations. The results of these data collection efforts
April across the EU and other European countries (-86% with show the increasing struggle of refugees to meet their basic
respect to January, see graph below). Following the loosening needs. For instance, in Lebanon, one of the largest refugee-
of restrictions in Europe, preliminary data show however a slow hosting countries in the world, over half of surveyed Syrian
recovery in the volume of asylum applications in subsequent refugees reported having lost their already scarce livelihoods.
months in most countries. As a result, UNHCR has estimated that the percentage of
Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic has already caused a global Syrian refugees below the poverty line increased from 73 to
recession, bringing many economic activities to a halt. This around 90 per cent, and the percentage of households eligible
especially impacted the socio-economic condition of forcibly for cash assistance increased from 55 to around 80 per cent.
displaced people, who lost jobs and income opportunities, but

Figure 2. National asylum procedures Figure 3. Asylum applications in the

(Number of countries as of 30 June2020) European Union, 2020

Link to metadata:
• https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics
• https://www.unhcr.org/population-data.html

Sources:
• Global COVID-19 Operational Portal: https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/covid-19
• UNSG Policy Brief: COVID-19 and People on the Move : https://unsdg.un.org/resources/policy-brief-covid-19-and-
people-move
• Global Trends: Forced displacement in 2019: https://www.unhcr.org/globaltrends2019/
• Humanitarian Data Exchange: COVID-19 Pandemic: https://data.humdata.org/event/covid-19
• Global Focus: COVID-19 situation: https://reporting.unhcr.org/covid-19

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Violence against women during COVID-19

Data show mixed trends on violence against women during COVID-19: an increase in the incidents of
domestic violence reported to helplines and a decrease in intimate partner homicide and sexual violence
reported to police.

Figure 1. Total number of victims of intentional

Figure 2. Trends in sexual violence reported to
homicide by intimate partner, November 2019 -
police, February=100, November 2019 - April 2020
April 2020

Note: Eight countries with available data. Note: Rape—17 countries, Sexual assault—11
countries.

The rapid spread of COVID-19 forced many people around sexual assault reported to police during the initial period of
the globe to remain at home to protect themselves and others the pandemic through April 2020. This decrease, may be the
from the virus. While staying at home was considered a safe results of multiple factors. Sexual violence originating outside
solution in response to the health emergency, there is a well- of the domestic sphere has likely decreased due to lockdown
grounded concern that this would not be the case for many measures. For sexual offences in the domestic sphere, it could
women and girls who would be forced to live in a confined be that they have decreased and/or that the rate of reporting
space with an abusive partner or abusive family member. to the police has decreased. Moreover, police and official
reporting channels have been under additional strains during
Based on available data, the impact of COVID-19 on violence
the COVID-19 emergency when first respondents including law
against women appears to vary across countries and by type
enforcement, and health service providers were overburdened
of crime. In line with the overall homicide trend, data from 17
with COVID-related activities. Furthermore, women might
countries provides evidence that the total number of female
have experienced additional oversight by partners or family
victims of intentional homicide decreased in April 2020 by
members during the lockdown period leading to either limited
17 per cent compared to February of the same year. When
or no access to support services.
focusing on killings of women by an intimate partner (figure 1),
the values recorded during the first months of the pandemic Data from national helpline services show different trends
also point to a possible downward trend. However, the large compared to reported offences. In Italy, for example, data on
data variability does not allow to make a more definitive the number of weekly calls received shows a very sudden and
conclusion. steep increase starting from the first week of the lockdown.
Overall, when compared to the weeks prior to the lockdown,
Sexual violence is another serious problem affecting
the number of calls by victims of violence increased by up to
many women around the world. Available data suggests
four times during the peak of the pandemic.
a substantial decrease in the number of cases of rape and

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SOCIAL
In Spain, calls to national helpline also increased by almost include differences in the types of crime reported to the police
70 per cent between February and April 2020. Contrary to and helpline organizations, especially by type of perpetrator or
the experience of Italy and Spain, the number of victims of location where the incident has occurred.
domestic violence requesting assistance from helpline services In addition, the variability of national measures implemented
in Denmark and Mexico remained relatively stable during the during the lockdown period may also explain the difference.
lockdown. UNODC is currently collecting more data in order to better
The different trends emerging from available helpline and police understand the different trends.
data could be a result of various factors at play. These could

Figure 3. Number of calls to national helpline organizations, Italy, Denmark, Spain and Mexico

Link to metadata:
https://dataunodc.un.org/content/covid-19

Sources:
• Figure 1 & 2: Country level data collected as part of the UNODC Global initiative to improve knowledge on COVID-19’s
impact on crime and drugs.
• Figure 3: Italy (National Institute of Statistics), Denmark (Lev Uden Volds National Helpline), Spain (Delegación del Go-
bierno contra la Violencia de Género), Mexico (Secretario Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública, Infor-
mación sobre violencia contra las mujeres (Incidencia delictiva y llamadas de emergencia 9-1-1)).

45
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Gendered impacts of COVID-19: Gender inequality

as society’s pre-existing condition
The nearly 40 rapid gender assessment (RGA) surveys, conducted by UN Women since March 2020, indicate
that the COVID-19 pandemic is exacerbating gender inequalities and deepening gender-based discrimination
and vulnerability. The survey results underscore the need to take drastic actions to redress long-standing
gender inequalities as a prerequisite for a fair, speedy and sustainable recovery.

Figure 1. Proportion of population who reported increases on time spent in at least three activities on
unpaid care and domestic work activities since the spread of COVID-19, by sex (percentage)

Source: UN Women Rapid Gender Assessments in Asia and the Pacific, and Europe and Central Asia, April–
June 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed large gender data gaps. women are shouldering the extra burden, particularly in terms
With only 31 per cent of gender-specific SDG indicators of care of children and household-related chores.
data available, the lack of baseline data impedes evidence- Survey results show that women sustained large drops
based policymaking which in turn hampers efforts to address in income from employment, savings, businesses and
inequalities. investments, farming and remittances. However, in several
To fill these information gaps, UN Women launched a set of countries, particularly in Asia and Pacific, men are more likely
rapid gender assessment surveys (RGAs) in partnership with to secure support from governments and non-governmental
the public and private sector, using internet, landline and organizations.
mobile phone-based data collection techniques. The data Women’s mental and emotional health is disproportionately
show that COVID-19 has gendered consequences that, if left affected. COVID-19 is not just affecting people’s physical
unaddressed, will exacerbate existing inequalities. health. In almost all countries surveyed, high rates of mental
Women report doing more unpaid domestic and care work and emotional distress are reported, with women reporting
than men. Before the pandemic, women did three times more higher rates than men. Increases in unpaid care and domestic
unpaid domestic and care work than men. While the crisis has work, job and income loss, and increased gender-based
led to increases in the workload for both women and men, violence may be some of the leading reasons for this increase.

46
SOCIAL

Figure 2. Proportion of population who reported that their psychological/mental/emotional health was
affected since the spread of COVID-19 in selected countries, by sex (percentage)

Source: UN Women Rapid Gender Assessments in Asia and the Pacific, and Europe and Central Asia, April–June
2020.

The UN COVID-19 and gender monitor dashboard was launched by UN Women in the Recover Better Together Action Forum
held in June 2020. Hosted on UN Women’s Data Hub, the dashboard is a compilation of indicators that will inform gender-
responsive policy action on COVID-19. It was developed by UN Women in collaboration with other UN entities as a response to
the call from the UN COVID-19 Response and Recovery Fund to develop a dashboard of indicators to inform funding proposals
from UN Country Teams.
Link to survey methodology:
• UN Women. Guidance on Rapid Gender Assessment Surveys on the Impacts of COVID-19. Making Every Woman
and Girl Count. New York, USA. May 2020. https://data.unwomen.org/publications/guidance-rapid-gender-assess-
ment-surveys-impacts-covid-19
• UN Women. Methodological Note on Collecting Evidence during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Asia and the Pacific.
Making Every Woman and Girl Count in Asia and the Pacific. Bangkok, Thailand. July 2020. https://data.unwomen.org/
sites/default/files/documents/COVID19/Infographic%20on%20methodology.pdf

References:
UN Women. Impact of COVID-19 on Women’s and Men’s Livelihoods in Europe and Central Asia: Preliminary Results from
Rapid Gender Assessments. Making Every Woman and Girl Count in Europe and Central Asia. Istanbul, Turkey. July 2020.
Available at https://data.unwomen.org/publications/impact-covid-19-womens-and-mens-lives-and-livelihoods-europe-and-
central-asia
UN Women. Unlocking the Lockdown: The Gendered Effects of COVID-19 on Achieving the SDGs in Asia and the Pacific.
Making Every Woman and Girl Count in Asia and the Pacific. Bangkok, Thailand. July 2020, available at https://data.
unwomen.org/publications/unlocking-lockdown-gendered-effects-covid-19-achieving-sdgs-asia-and-pacific
UN Women. Surveys show that COVID-19 has gendered effects in Asia and the Pacific. Making Every Woman and Girl
Count in Asia and the Pacific. Bangkok, Thailand. April 2020. https://data.unwomen.org/resources/surveys-show-covid-19-
has-gendered-effects-asia-and-pacific
UN Women. COVID-19 and Gender Monitor. UN Women Data Hub. New York, USA. June 2020. https://data.unwomen.
org/resources/covid-19-and-gender-monitor

47
 Regional
Impact

48
#StatisticalCoordination

49
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Remittances on the eve of COVID-19: Potential risks

for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific
As global economic activity stalls, developing economies in Asia and the Pacific face domestic labour market
upheavals and disruptions to remittance receipts. Economies with a significant or growing dependence on
remittances are especially vulnerable.

Figure 1. Global total remittances, inflows (percentages)

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has led many ADB’s developing member economies received 43.5% of the
countries around the world to implement lockdowns with world’s total remittances in 2019, compared with 28.0% in
severe impact on their economies. Developing economies in 2000, leaving them more vulnerable to overseas labor market
Asia and the Pacific face a dual threat: Apart from disruptions disruptions, including lockdowns.
in domestic production, they also face significant drops in The vulnerability of these economies can also be seen in
remittance receipts, as livelihoods of their citizens working the size of remittances relative to gross domestic product
overseas are also affected negatively by lockdowns in those (GDP); this figure was 1.3% among all developing ADB
countries. member economies in 2019, higher than the 0.8% worldwide
Remittances are an important source of income for many (table 2). There was nevertheless a wide variation at the
households in developing economies. They are also significant economy level. Table 2 reports remittances relative to GDP
contributors of foreign exchange earnings, and tend to be for ADB subregions and the 10 leading recipients. In Tonga,
countercyclical.1 However, with COVID-19 sweeping the remittances relative to GDP reached 36.1% in 2019, while this
world, remittances may no longer act as a countercyclical figure exceeded one-quarter in the Kyrgyz Republic, Nepal
stabilizer, and disruptions to their inflows can compound the and Tajikistan. Nevertheless, some of the 10 leading recipients
pandemic’s severe impact on domestic economies and lower- had experienced declines in remittances relative to GDP since
income households. 2010, as their economies grew at a faster rate than remittance
inflows.
Although remittance data can be noisy, the broad trend shows
that developing member economies2 of the Asian Development The adverse effects of overseas lockdowns on remittances,
Bank (ADB) were major recipients of remittance income at the and the welfare losses for households dependent on such
start of the COVID-19 pandemic (figure 1). They received a income, are expected to be greatest for these economies.
total of $311 billion in 2019, with the largest inflows in South Due to stigma, migrant workers also face difficulties obtaining
Asia. This was almost nine times the aggregate remittances in alternative employment.3 Moreover, to the extent that
2000 ($36 billion), even though remittance receipts worldwide remittance incomes are spent on children’s education, the
had grown only 5-6 times during the same period (table impact of overseas lockdowns on the families of migrant
1). The fastest growth was seen in Central and West Asia. workers could reverberate into the next generation.

50
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Table 1: Total remittances, inflows (US$ million) Table 2: Total remittances, inflows by subregion and
selected economies (% of GDP)

Sub-Region 2000 2010 2019 Sub-Region 2000 2010 2019

1,565 20,737 37,603 Central and West Asia 1.4 4.2 5.8
Central and West Asia (1.2%) (4.4%) (5.3%)
Armenia 4.6 18.0 11.2
6,042 59,419 78,641 Georgia 6.9 9.7 12.7
East Asia
(4.8%) (12.5%) (11.0%)
Kyrgyz Republic 0.6 26.4 28.5
16,092 71,929 116,406
South Asia Pakistan 1.4 5.6 8.9
(12.7%) (15.1%) (16.3%)
11,752 43,120 77,366 Tajikistan 6.4 (2002) 35.8 28.3
Southeast Asia
(9.3%) (9.1%) (10.8%) East Asia 0.3 0.8 0.5
90 479 756 South Asia 3.0 3.9 3.5
The Pacific
(0.1%) (0.1%) (0.1%)
Nepal 2.1 21.3 26.5
Developing ADB Member 35,541 195,685 310,772
Economies (28.0%) (41.2%) (43.5%) Sri Lanka 7.0 7.3 8.0
World 126,750 474,839 714,249 Southeast Asia 2.3 2.5 2.8
Philippines 8.3 10.3 9.3
Source: ADB estimates using economy sources
and World Bank Migration and Remittances The Pacific 1.6 2.3 2.4 (2018)
Data. http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/ Samoa 0.2 (2004) 20.0 17.4
migrationremittancesdiasporaissues/brief/migration-
remittances-data (accessed 30 June 2020). For Tonga 31.5 (2001) 19.9 36.1
Taipei,China: Central bank of Taipei,China (accessed 30 Developing ADB Member 1.0 1.6 1.3
June 2020). Economies
Notes: ADB = Asian Development Bank. Percentages World 0.4 0.7 0.8
in parentheses represent the share of the global total.
Regional aggregates include reporting economies only.
Source: ADB estimates using economy sources and World
Bank Migration and Remittances Data. http://www.worldbank.
org/en/topic/migrationremittancesdiasporaissues/brief/
migration-remittances-data (accessed 30 June 2020). For
Taipei,China: Central bank of Taipei,China (accessed 30 June
2020).
Notes: ADB = Asian Development Bank. Regional aggregates
include reporting economies only.
Link to metadata:
• https://kidb.adb.org/kidb/references/definitions
• ADB’s Key Indicator Database has data on remittance receipts and other indicators on the region, with the latest release
scheduled for mid-September 2020: https://kidb.adb.org/

Notes:
1
ADB and World Bank (2018), Migration and Remittances for Development in Asia, May 2018, https://www.adb.org/sites/
default/files/publication/419611/migration-remittances-development-asia.pdf.
2
ADB subregions comprise: Central and West Asia (Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic,
Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan); East Asia (People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Republic of
Korea; Mongolia; and Taipei,China) ; South Asia (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka); Southeast Asia
(Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam); and the Pacific (Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Federated States of
Micronesia, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu).
3
ADB (2020), COVID-19 is a Serious Blow to the Remittances that Millions of Families Depend on, https://blogs.adb.org/blog/
covid-19-serious-blow-remittances-millions-families-depend-upon.

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The African Development Bank (AfDB) has put in

place a US$10.2billion Crisis Response Facility (CRF)
to provide a flexible range of support to African
countries to help them deal with the impacts of the
Covid-19 pandemic.
The CRF comprises about 70% of the Bank’s planned lending for 2020, so it represents a sizeable share of
AfDB’s lending activities for this year. The CRF is delivering immediate relief to countries to address the crisis
by providing them with additional resources for (1) public health interventions, (2) social protection programs,
and (3) protection of their economies at a time of global volatility and uncertainty.

Many African countries are still highly dependent on support to African countries to further boost their resilience so
commodity exports, and the recent economic turmoil has that they are able to better manage future shocks.
brought those export earnings down. This has led to reduced As part of the CRF operations, the Bank has put in place a
foreign exchange earnings as well as reduced fiscal revenues. robust monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework to ensure
Moreover, all the pandemonium has interfered with global that resources are utilized effectively and for the intended
supply chains, which has brought about a negative knock-on purposes. The framework brings to the fore institutional
effect. arrangements for M&E and places importance on identifying
The Bank has therefore stepped up with this flexible approach sources, gaps and initiatives to strengthen data quality and
that makes concessions on pricing and fees and generally availability for M&E. It brings out the central role played
helps with the immediate liquidity needs for African countries. by national statistical systems in providing M&E data and
All the funding support provided to African countries is intended particularly the coordinating role of national statistics offices.
to support government budgets to have maximum positive The Bank is also in the process of developing its 5th Statistical
effects on households and economies without worsening the Capacity Building Program that will support the development of
debt profiles of our member states. In fact, the resource flows statistics in Africa with special focus on statistics for measuring
are designed to be net positive to countries during the crisis the social and economic impacts of COVID-19 during and
without incidence of arrears. There is also flexibility to allow post pandemic. Furthermore, the Bank has launched a
countries to address their specific needs, and to ensure that COVID-19 dashboard in order to track daily developments
the Bank’s financing complements other sources for maximum and present reliable data on the spread of COVID-19 in Africa
beneficial impact. In this regard, we are coordinating closely and its socioeconomic impacts. The COVID-19 Dashboard
with our member countries as well as with our development is an interactive platform intended to provide high frequency
partners. updates on relevant COVID-19 indicators, such as daily
During this crisis, the Bank will also provide support of about statistics on the number of cases, deaths, recoveries and
US$5 billion for non-CRF activities in the second half of the year number of tests conducted across Africa. In addition to the
to assist African countries on a broad range of needs, in most main COVID-19 indicators, the dashboard features critical
cases identified prior to COVID-19. This combined package of socio-economic indicators on demography, the health sector
responses, along with other initiatives under way at the Bank, and the economy.
will help our countries cope with the current Covid-19 situation Other data activities in support of the Bank’s surveillance
and put them in a position to restore growth once the crisis work on COVID-19 issues include generating projections for
has passed. Going forward, the Bank intends to strengthen its the analytical work on the Africa Economic Outlook (AEO).

52
REGIONAL

Statisticians work closely with research and country economists in Africa is projected to contract by 1.7 percent in 2020 in a
on macroeconomic surveillance of African economies base case scenario which assumes that the pandemic would
and provide the data that comprise the essential inputs for be over by Q3 and by 3.4% in the worse case scenario where
informing Bank support and for providing advisory services to the pandemic is assumed to continue to the end of the year.
African countries. According to our latest estimates, real GDP

Sources:
• African Development Bank

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Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the EU labour

market
Labour market slack increased by 0.3 percentage points in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth
quarter of 2019, while employment remained stable. Absences from work reached a record high: 4.3 million
more employed persons were absent from work in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter
of 2019.

Figure 1. Labour market slack and employment in the EU

(from Q1 2008 to Q1 2020, in % age group 20-64, seasonally adjusted data)

Source: ec.europa.eu/eurostat

The first quarter of 2020 was the first quarter in which the fulfilling all ILO criteria, or are working part-time and would like
labour market across the European Union (EU) was affected to work additional hours. Furthermore, absences from work
by COVID-19 measures taken by Member States. The broken down by reason are published, as well as an index of
concepts of employment and unemployment as defined by the total actual hours worked in the main job. More new indicators
International Labour Office (ILO) are, in this particular situation, on recent job leavers and starters, as well as weekly total
not sufficient to describe all the developments taking place absences and transitions out of employment, are published
in the labour market. In this first phase of the crisis, active in the Eurostat database. In the first quarter of 2020, 190.9
measures to contain employment losses led to absences million persons in the EU were employed. The EU seasonally
from work rather than dismissals, and individuals could not adjusted employment rate for people aged 20-64 stood at
search for work or were not available due to the containment 73.3%, unchanged compared to the fourth quarter of 2019
measures and were therefore not counted as unemployed. and up from 73.0% in the first quarter of 2019. At the same
time, seasonally adjusted total labour market slack in the EU,
In July, Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union,
consisting of unmet demand for labour, amounted to 26.8
published a set of additional seasonally adjusted quarterly
million persons, which represented 12.7% of the extended
indicators which capture the most recent movements on the
labour force in the first quarter of 2020, up from 12.4% in the
labour market in the 27 EU Member States.
fourth quarter of 2019. This was the first quarter-on-quarter
These additional indicators include total labour market slack, increase since the peak in the second quarter of 2013, when
which comprises all persons who have an unmet need for the labour market slack had stood at 19.0%
employment, either because they are unemployed according
to the ILO definition, are close to unemployment while not

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Figure 2. Absences from work by reasons in the EU
(from Q1 2006 to Q1 2020, in million persons, age group 20-64, seasonally adjusted data)

Source: ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Figure 3. Total actual hours worked in the main job in the EU

(from Q1 2006 to Q1 2020, 2006=100, people aged 20-64, seasonally adjusted data)

Source: ec.europa.eu/eurostat

In the first quarter of 2020, a total of 22.9 million persons were absent from work in the EU, an increase of 4.3 million
compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. This increase is to a large extent due to a sharp increase in temporary lay-offs, which
rose from 0.3 million persons to 2.3 million persons. Total actual hours worked have dropped sharply in the EU between the
fourth quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020, but have not reached the low values observed during the debt crisis. The
levels of total actual hours worked are influenced by the total number of persons working, as well as the number of hours
worked by each of these persons. Women have been harder hit than men, with a drop from 108 to 102 index points between
the fourth quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020, compared to a drop from 98 to 93 for men.

Note:
• German data underlying the EU aggregates for 2020Q1 are preliminary.
Sources:
• Eurostat COVID-19 website
• Eurostat website section on employment and unemployment
• Eurostat database section, including non-seasonally adjusted and trend data
• Eurostat metadata on LFS Main Indicators
• Eurostat “Statistics Explained” articles on quarterly data on labour market slack, on absences from work and on hours of
work

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GCC countries’ intervention policies: mitigating the

socio-economic impact of COVID-19 and staying on
track with long term development plans
The Covid-19 pandemic represents the biggest economic is still spreading rapidly at a global level, the pattern of new
challenge facing the world, with increasing uncertainty cases in the GCC suggests that it is stabilizing, as indicated by
about the depth of the contraction and the speed of the the 7-day moving average of daily cases (figure 1). In addition,
expected recovery. The economies of the Gulf Cooperation as of July 12, 2020, the number of recoveries have outpaced
Council (GCC) are affected by two simultaneous shocks: the confirmed cases
Covid-19 outbreak and lower oil prices. Despite the loss in oil By the end of the second quarter, various monetary and
revenue and the strained fiscal positions, GCC countries have financial indicators suggest that the GCC economy is still
responded rapidly to mitigate the economic consequences resilient. The banking systems remain sound, with strong
of the crisis on the private sector and households, and to capitalization, adequate liquidity, relatively low NPLs, and
maintain financial stability. As the crisis unfolds, more timely stock markets are recovering, albeit slowly. International oil
policy responses are needed to prevent GCC economies from prices have partially recovered from their downturn during the
falling into a prolonged economic recession that might result first four months of the year (figure 2), with positive outlook for
in increased unemployment and private sector bankruptcies. the third and fourth quarters as the global demand gradually
rebounds. The growth in monetary aggregates (namely M1
A Sign of recovery
and M2) is still steady, with slower growth in M2 during April-
After almost four months of lockdown, GCC countries are May 2020, reflecting lower growth in saving deposits (figure
progressively starting to ease restrictions on mobility and 3). The higher growth in M1 reflects lower interest rates and
economic activities. While the disease the expansions in bank reserves, directly resulting from central
banks’ recent liquidity measures.

Figure 1. COVID-19 daily cases in GCC Figure 2. OPEC basket oil price
and the world

Source: GCC-Stat and John Hopkins University, USA. Source: OPEC.

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Figure 3. Growth rate in M1 and M2 for the GCC (%, YoY)

Source: GCC-Stat.

Intervention policies
As of July 12, 2020, the total value of the economic stimulus announced by the GCC countries to face the economic
repercussions of Covid-19 stands at 149.2 billion US dollars. The GCC countries have devised a range of monetary, prudential,
and fiscal measures to provide liquidity to the markets and support vulnerable sectors. Monetary measures have included
reducing discount, interest and repo rates, with associated monetary policy instruments to reduce the cost of borrowing and
ensure continued supply of credit to affected sectors. Authorities have also introduced prudential measures to help alleviate
stress in the financial system through lowering capital conservation buffers and increasing the lending/financing ratio and
bolstering investments in the stock markets. Central banks have also set up mechanisms to encourage commercial banks
to postpone private sector loan repayments for six months to support its recovery. GCC countries have also adopted some
measures to help SMEs including support to labour force, deferrals of payments (e.g., taxes, rent, utility payments, social
security contributions, etc.), financial support (e.g., credit guarantees, subsidized loans, etc.). The GCC countries have also
introduced social measures in the form of unemployment benefits and in-kind support to the most vulnerable households. GCC
governments have also been working with other governments to support the return of people to their home countries.

Sources:
• GCC--Stat – www.gccstat.org

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Impact of COVID-19 on poverty and inequality in

Latin America
The confinement measures necessary to stop the advance of the pandemic are generating an increasing
economic and social cost in Latin America and the Caribbean, requiring urgent measures by governments.

Figure 1. Latin America: Population living in poverty Figure 2. Latin America: Incidence of poverty and
and extreme poverty, 2012-2020 extreme poverty, 2012-2020
(millons of persons) (percentages)

Source: ECLAC, based on own estimations and Source: ECLAC, based on own estimations and
Household Survey Databank (BADEHOG). Household Survey Databank (BADEHOG).

As of mid-2020, Latin America and the Caribbean is at the the Latin American population. The number or persons in
epicenter of the pandemic. Although some governments in extreme poverty is expected to increase from 67.7 million
the region have started to ease containment measures, others people in 2019 to 96.2 million people in 2020, equivalent to
have had to intensify them given the persistent increase in 15.5 per cent of the total population.
daily cases of the disease. The expected impact of the pandemic on poverty in the region
The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America will differ from country to country. The largest increases in
and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimates that the economies of the poverty rate would occur in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,
Latin America and the Caribbean will experience a 9.1 per Peru and Ecuador. In turn, extreme poverty would increase
cent drop in GDP in 2020. As a result, the GDP per capita mainly in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico and
will be at a level similar to that observed in 2010. The regional Nicaragua.
unemployment rate is expected to reach 13.5 per cent at the Even though the projections show a decrease in household
end of 2020, which represents an increase of 5.4 percentage income across all income groups, it is expected that the lowest
points compared to 2019. income groups will be affected to a greater extent, leading to
Based on these figures, the number of persons in poverty in an increase of the Gini index between one and eight per cent
Latin America is projected to grow from 185.5 million in 2019 in the countries analyzed.
to 230.9 million in 2020, which represents 37.3 per cent of

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Simulations of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on living conditions take as a starting point poverty estimates for 18
Latin American countries, which are based on poverty lines constructed to maximize comparability between countries (ECLAC,
2019).
The projections assume that the reduction in GDP per capita translates into a similar reduction in per capita household labour
income. The loss of labour income is not evenly distributed: job losses and fall in labour income will depend on the economic
sector, labour productivity and wage levels.
To contain the worst effects of the crisis on living conditions, ECLAC has recommended member countries to implement
universal, redistributive and solidarity-based policies with a rights-based approach, to ensure that no one is left behind.

Figure 3. Poverty incidence by country, 2019 and Figure 4. Projected variation of household per capita
2020 (percentages) income, by decile, 2020 (percentages)

Source: ECLAC, based on own estimations and Source: ECLAC, based on own estimations and
Household Survey Databank (BADEHOG). Household Survey Databank (BADEHOG).

Sources:
• https://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/44920
• https://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/45527 (preliminary link, to be replaced)

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Impact of COVID-19 on older persons in the Arab

region
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all aspects of life in the Arab region. Older persons with disabilities,
especially women, will bear a double burden reflected in the health risks posed by the virus and in weak social
protection systems, which leave a large group of older persons without protection.

The older population. The mortality risk of COVID-19 the European Union, leaving many social groups vulnerable,
increases with age, as older persons, those aged 60 and over, especially older persons.
have a higher risk of suffering from acute symptoms and health
complications. COVID-19 has heightened the vulnerability of
around 32 million older persons in the Arab region.
Disability is a compounding factor elevating COVID-19 risks
and impacts on older persons. Disabled older persons may
also face multiple functional difficulties in carrying out daily
routines. Over 46 per cent of older persons have disabilities,
including more than 7 million vulnerable older persons who
suffer from moderate to severe disabilities.
Older women with severe to moderate disabilities are
particularly vulnerable due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Of the
7 million older persons in the region with moderate to severe
disabilities, 4 million are women.
Living arrangements. The majority of older persons in the
Arab region live with their families. However, nearly 2 million
older persons (14%) live alone or are single parents residing
with children. The majority of older women are less likely to
have the financial means to access required health services.
There are more older women living without a partner than older
men. Older women with disabilities are twice as likely to live
without a partner (66%) than older men with disabilities (34%).
Literacy is important during a crisis to keep people informed
and aware of developments. In the Arab region, there are twice
as many illiterate older women (68%) than men (36%). Illiterate
older women are at a higher risk of isolation, and of lacking
knowledge on COVID-19. They are also limited in their ability
to connect with others through technology and social media.
Health of older persons. Ongoing research on COVID-19
has shown the heightened risk of mortality among patients with
underlying health complications, including non-communicable
diseases (NCDs). Older persons have higher NCD rates than
other age groups. NCDs among older persons can range
between 35 and 51 per cent, meaning that older persons are
exposed to much greater risks during a pandemic.
This situation is compounded by limited universal health
coverage (UHC) and inadequate social protection services
for older persons. The availability of UHC increases life
expectancy. However, in 2017, the UHC Index for the Arab
region was only 63 per cent compared with 81 per cent for

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Figure 1. Universal health coverage (UHC) index and life expectancy at birth, latest data

Medical services. Medical services in Arab countries differ in Many countries with a higher burden of disease, expressed in
their capacity to respond to COVID-19. The least developed disability-adjusted life years, have access to only two or fewer
countries are at higher risk, given their limited capacity. The doctors per 10,000 people. Overall, the doctor-population
need for medical professionals is urgent in the Arab region. ratio is almost three per 1,000 persons, whereas there are,
Nearly half of Arab countries have less than 10 medical on average, two nurses per doctor across the Arab countries.
doctors per 10,000 people, and nearly a third report having
less than five.

Figure 2. Medical doctors per 10,000 people and the burden of disease, latest data

Link to metadata:
• United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia: Website : https://www.unescwa.org/our-work/
statistics

Sources:
• WHO and ESCWA, based on national and international data.

United Nations Economic and Social

Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)

61
 Statistical
Impact

62
#StatisticalCoordination

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Impact on censuses of agriculture and mitigation

measures
The census of agriculture’s reference period is the agricultural year. Any delay may have knock-on effects and
result in a full year deferment of the enumeration if the agricultural season is missed. This brings uncertainty on
continued financing and undesirable shifting of reference periods.

Figure 1. The impact of COVID-19 on censuses of agriculture around 2020

Note: data from 150 countries and territories that provided an update to FAO.

The pandemic has been affecting planning and implementation The Map above shows the impact of COVID-19 on CAs in 150
of censuses of agriculture (CAs) in all world’s regions. countries and territories that provided an update to FAO. The
The extent of the impact varies according to the stages at Chart below focuses on 140 countries with ongoing census
which the censuses are, ranging from planning (i.e. staffing, activities and shows that over half have been affected. CA
procurement, preparation of frames, questionnaires), fieldwork activities have been delayed (27% of the countries), postponed
(field training and enumeration) or data processing/analysis (22%) or suspended (4%). An additional 9% of the reporting
stages. countries had completed their CAs and therefore were not
affected (this excludes countries that completed a CA earlier
The CA’s reference period is the agricultural year. Thus,
in the round but plan a second one later in the round).
countries carefully schedule census activities to ensure that
crop and livestock data is collected at the right time. A delay Another 38% of the countries reported that their AC activities
in census activities may be critical and can result in a full year had not been affected yet. However, three quarters of these
postponement of the enumeration if the agricultural season is countries are at a very early planning stage.
missed. The situation has brought about concerns, such as uncertainty
FAO coordinates the World Programme for the Census of on the continued CA financing; unwanted shifting of census
Agriculture 2020 (WCA 2020), which supports national CAs reference periods; data quality issues as it may not reflect
conducted during the 2016–2025 round. the new reality; inducing biasness in samples of subsequent
agricultural surveys; and delays in the population census that

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STATISTICAL

could defer CAs plans (many developing countries use the encourage respondents to self-respond through CAWI,
population census to set up the CA frame). and CATI data collection modalities.
Some of the countries with CAs not affected yet by the • Exploring the use of administrative records as census
pandemic have developed statistical systems and information data.
and communication technology (ICT). Census activities have • However, ICT and methodological capability takes time
continued through teleworking and e-learning, while data to build. Poor connectivity, high cost of access and lack
collection is carried out through CAWI and CATI or using of technical skills prevent some countries from switching
administrative records. halfway the CA work. Adequate time for testing and
Some mitigation measures include: training prior to adoption should not be underestimated.

• Using e-learning tools to train trainers, supervisors and • When the enumeration has been postponed, questions
enumerators. could be simplified to minimize recall problems. Inventory
items (e.g., livestock numbers) could be adjusted using
• Reducing reliance on face-to-face interviewing and
known growth rates.

Figure 2. Impact of COVID-19 on censuses of agriculture

References:
Castano, Jairo. 2020. Impact of COVID-19 on national censuses of agriculture (Status overview). FAO Policy Brief, Rome.
www.fao.org/3/ca8984en/CA8984EN.pdf
Castano, Jairo. 2020. National agricultural census operations and COVID-19. FAO Policy Brief, Rome. www.fao.org/3/
ca8605en/CA8605EN.pdf
FAO. 2015. World Programme for the Census of Agriculture 2020 Volume 1: Programme, concepts and definitions. FAO.
Rome. www.fao.org/3/a-i4913e.pdf

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 STATISTICAL

Communicating COVID-19: The NSO response

In crises, communicating trustworthy information is crucial. At the onset of COVID-19, Twitter emerged as
a popular channel of statistical communication. However, this trend has not been uniform across regions, and
data show that overall online NSO communication lagged behind government measures.

Figure 1: NSOs in Africa lag behind in communicating COVID-19 on websites

To understand how NSOs are communicating during the NSOs in Europe and the Americas are more likely to tweet
pandemic, PARIS21 extracted data from active Twitter COVID-related information, with UK’s Office of National
timelines of 90 NSOs worldwide from January 2020 until Statistics leading the absolute and relative number of
09 July 2020. The analysis revealed key insights on NSO COVID-19 tweets (417/1783). Although Statistics South Africa
communication patterns on social media and NSO websites. leads non-OECD countries in number of tweets, and Senegal’s
Agence Nationale de la Statistique et de la Démographie leads
First, at the onset of the crisis NSOs communicated more
in relative share (17/65), Africa still has the lowest percentage
frequently on COVID-19 on Twitter than on official websites.
of NSOs using Twitter.
By 07 May, 2020, 64 of 90 NSO Twitter accounts analysed by
PARIS21 had published information related to the pandemic Thirdly, most NSOs using social media reacted rather slowly to
in their timeline, compared to 54 NSO websites in the same the pandemic. When comparing data on government imposed
sample. Over the coming months, NSOs were able to catch measures such as public transport closures, the analysis
up in communicating on their websites. By 09 July 2020, 132 found that for the 56 countries who have implemented some
NSO websites have posted COVID-19 related information type of restrictions, NSOs take on average 19 days to tweet
(figure 1). Yet, many NSOs in Africa still lag behind in providing about COVID-19 for the first time (figure 2).
information online. Dissemination and communication of statistical products is
Secondly, the reference to statistical information in NSO Twitter part of the core mandate of an NSO. During the COVID-19
content is significantly higher than on the respective NSO crisis, effective and agile communication strategies for NSOs
websites. Websites of many NSOs in Africa, Latin America are key to interact with data users and enhance trust in data
and Asia do not provide any COVID-specific information on and evidence. It is vital that NSOs reach out quickly and
their websites. Nearly one-third of the information on the accurately to public and private stakeholders to communicate
websites are general announcements on programmes of work on trusted, high quality data.
and reposts of government press releases. On Twitter, only
6 out of the 76 accounts analysed published non-statistical
information.

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STATISTICAL

Figure 2. Pre-or-post lockdown: When was the first COVID-19-related tweet shared by the NSO?

Link to metadata:
• https://bit.ly/NSOReaction0707

References:
Tian Y., Schmidt J., Misra A., (2020), Communication COVID-19: The NSO response. The OECD Statistics Newsletter, Issue
No. 72, July 2020, https://www.oecd.org/sdd/theoecdstatisticsnewsletter-allissues.htm

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 STATISTICAL

Dashboards to monitor the COVID-19 impact on

trade, travel, and transport
The COVID-19 pandemic has a major impact on international trade, travel and transport. International air
travel decreased by more than 90 per cent during April and May 2020 as compared to same period in 2019.
Policies for economic support and recovery need to be informed with time-sensitive high-frequency indicators.
International agencies led by the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) and the International Civil Aviation
Organization (ICAO) maintain dashboards of policy relevant high-frequency indicators for international trade,
air travel and maritime transport.

Table 1. Air travel: monthly number of international passenger flights by region for
June 2019 and June 2020

Region of origin 2019 2020 Difference % Difference

Africa 49892 4328 -45564 -91.33%
Asia/Pacific 237546 29990 -207556 -87.38%
Europe 598351 62484 -535867 -89.56%
Latin America and the Caribbean 87701 14295 -73406 -83.70%
Middle East 74775 9524 -65251 -87.26%
North Africa 114879 18814 -96065 -83.62%
Grand total 1163144 139435 -1023709 -88.01%

As part of the interventions to mitigate the spread of trade relationship with China could be studied in great detail.
COVID-19, Governments have severely restricted domestic Very few countries will be able to release daily trade data at
and international travel. These restrictions have had a major such short notice, but New Zealand showed the art of the
impact on the airline industry. In Europe, for example, the possible, see https://tinyurl.com/yxmvqp8x.
number of international flights dropped by 95 per cent, from At global level, maritime data from the Automatic Identification
576,572 in May 2019 to only 26,796 flights in May 2020. In System (AIS) have emerged as a potential source for real-time
June 2020 a slight recovery was noticeable, but the difference information on trade activity. UNSD leads a task team on use
with June 2019 was still very large (see table 1). A dashboard of AIS data under the UN global working group on big data for
to monitor the monthly number of international passenger official statistics. The task team develops methodologies for
flights, developed by ICAO, allows for a further drilldown to several indicators on transport and environment-related issues
countries within a region. and produces weekly estimates of port calls for some 1,200
International trade, while also dropping significantly, was not ports around the world. Figure 1 shows the total number of
affected to the same degree as international travel. To help weekly port calls for Eastern Asia in the period of April 2019 until
decision makers and researchers Statistics New Zealand has 12 July 2020. The graph indicates that a major dip in maritime
published daily trade data from 1 February 2020 to the most traffic occurred in January-February 2020. The dashboard
recent week, comparing 2020 values with those from previous allows to create additional breakdowns geographically (region
years. Given that the daily trade numbers were available with and country) and by type of vessel. Figure 2 shows for which
breakdowns by trading partner and commodities traded, the ports in Eastern Asia these data were estimated.
effect of New Zealand’s

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STATISTICAL

Figure 1. Port calls for Eastern Asia by week from April 2019 until 12 July 2020

In a recent study, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Detailed monthly trade data from the United Nations Comtrade
leveraged different machine-learning techniques to identify database (official statistics) can give additional insights when
port boundaries, construct port-to-port voyages, and estimate read in combination with the high-frequency airline and
trade volumes at the world, bilateral and within-country levels. maritime data. Figure 3 shows the monthly imports and
The methodology achieved a good fit with official trade for exports for South Africa for 2018, 2019 and 2020. These data
many countries (https://tinyurl.com/y2t36svd). reveal a significant drop in the exports of South Africa in April
2020 as compared to the same month in previous years.
The dashboards on trade, travel and transport will become
available and be updated frequently on the UN Global
Platform (https://tinyurl.com/yxe922vm). The platform
also allows access to the underlying AIS and flight tracking
data. Dashboards with additional high-frequency economic
indicators on tourism and prices are being considered and
may be added in the future.

Figure 3. Monthly Imports (M) and Exports (X) Trade of South Africa for 2018, 2019 and 2020

69
 STATISTICAL

Data in support of COVID-19 response in cities

As COVID-19 continues to spread across the globe, it is important to understand local trends, levels of
readiness and preparedness, as well as the presence and distribution of key services, facilities and the roles of
different actors. Any response to address the adverse socio-economic impacts must be based on tangible and
close to real-time data.

Figure 1. COVID-19 City Readiness and Response Tracker

Source: https://unhabitat.citiiq.com/

To address the challenge of data availability on COVID-19 At city level, UN-Habitat is leading the collection and use of
trends in cities, UN-Habitat and CitiIQ developed a COVID-19 data for COVID-19 response and recovery in support of the
readiness and response tracker that assesses how ready most vulnerable urban populations—the slum dwellers.
the world’s cities were for the COVID-19 pandemic and how UN-Habitat has developed a survey to assess the availability
they have coped with its spread. The tracker, which scores of social and infrastructural facilities and services, as well as to
readiness and responsiveness on a scale of 0 to 100 based on map the multiplicity of partners working on these settlements,
more than 50 weighted and normalized indicators, provides including their respective roles and responsibilities.
information that is critical for building resilience and for
informing responses and recovery strategies to the pandemic. This survey, which has been piloted in 10 informal settlements
in Kenya not only identifies specific entry points for new
The readiness score is based on five core indicator support to COVID-19 response in informal settlements, but
areas: public health capacity, societal strength, economic also provides information required to improve coordination of
ability, infrastructure and national collaborative will. The activities of different organizations for the benefit of the most
responsiveness score focuses on four thematic areas: spread needy urban dwellers.
response, treatment response, economic response and supply
chain response. Currently, the web-based tracker (https:// In Kenya, the results from the pilot survey have triggered
unhabitat.citiiq.com/) provides scoring for over 1,000 cities important discussions on the need to coordinate efforts among
with a population of 500,000 and above. The data presented various stakeholders such as various levels of government, the
in the platform are automatically populated from multiple United Nations system, local communities, non-governmental
sources, with new cities being added as infections spread and organizations (NGOs) and donors.
more data become available.

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STATISTICAL

Figure 2. Interactive platform and situation awareness based on facilities mapping in informal
settlements in Kenya

Link to metadata:
• UN-Habitat Global Urban Indicators Database: https://data.unhabitat.org/

Data Source:
• https://data.unhabitat.org/
• https://unhabitat.citiiq.com/

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The pandemic and its response present challenges

and opportunities for National Statistical Systems
in Asia and the Pacific
ESCAP is supporting countries as they coordinate policies and share information and experiences on addressing
the unprecedented challenges at a time when high quality and trusted statistics have never been more critical.

Governments in the Asia-Pacific region are being challenged by

the COVID-19 pandemic and its adverse impacts. Responses Figure 1. Snapshot of statistical policies reported in
ESCAP’s COVID-19 policy response portal
to slow the spread of the disease and mitigate its impact
include social, fiscal and monetary stimulus packages with
varying scale and focus. Policy coordination across countries
is critical to ensure that no one is left behind, and ESCAP
has developed a framework to support the socio-economic
response of Asia and the Pacific. To that end, ESCAP launched
a COVID-19 policy response portal to coordinate and track
policies.
Policies related to statistics are included in the tracker,
recognizing the importance of data and evidence in informing
policy responses and evaluating and assessing them. However,
just as demand for trusted data and statistics has increased
due to the pandemic, the ability to produce and disseminate
this data has been weakened for the same reason.

Figure 2. Example from Stats Café presentation (New Zealand)

In order to support National Statistical Systems, ESCAP began a points raised by countries in this initiative.
“Stats Café” series which allows countries to share experiences Thailand and Australia presented on conducting rapid
in addressing the challenges of statistical production and assessment surveys on the impact of COVID-19. Thailand
dissemination at this time, and for development partners divided the surveys into social and economic impact. However,
to provide technical support. Countries have presented on due to social distancing and budgetary constraints, the
population and housing censuses, civil registration and vital surveys were online and self-administered, raising questions
statistics (CRVS) systems, and rapid assessment surveys, of representativity. To address this, Thailand is planning a
as well as guidance on subnational population estimates further telephone-based survey. The survey results are made
and conducting household surveys during the COVID-19 publicly available through a dashboard, infographics and
pandemic. The following paragraphs will summarise some key

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press releases, as well as directly to government officials.

Figure 3. Participation statistics from a recent Stats
Australia described the rapid business and household surveys Cafe
introduced because of the pandemic, emphasizing that new
demands meant that other activities were paused. These
surveys were conducted every two or three weeks, with
release within the following one or two weeks. Each cycle
collected information on different topics and linked to other
official statistics released concurrently. Infographics were
created on the results and disseminated through social media.
The current pandemic is disrupting CRVS systems all over
the world, but well-functioning systems are more essential
than ever. Malaysia described how during the lockdown, civil
registration was not considered an essential function and
therefore a backlog ensued, impacting the statistics which
could be produced over this timeframe. In contrast, in New
Zealand, civil registration was deemed an essential service,
with a mass fatality response team to handle a potential
sharp increase in death registration which was fortunately
not required. The New Zealand experience highlighted
how characterizing civil registration as an essential service
facilitated speedily available administrative data. Georgia also
underlined the importance of digitalizing registration services
which allowed them to provide remote on-line services during
their lockdown.
The COVID-19 pandemic threatens the successful conduct
of censuses in many countries through delays, interruptions
or complete cancellation of census projects. Many countries
in the Asia-Pacific region have a census planned for 2020
or 2021 covering nearly 4 billion people, more than half the
world’s population.
Singapore explained how, with its rich administrative data, a
register-based census was conducted, supplemented with
surveys. Although field operations were scaled down, the high around recruitment, procurement and training. The greatest
uptake of online data collection meant that data remained of challenge facing Indonesia is a budget cut of 70% This has
high quality although there was a still a significant minority meant that the outputs have had to be adjusted and reduced.
which required follow-up to ensure representative coverage. Additionally, both the Philippines and Indonesia described
finding creative solutions to ensure the postponed census
In the Philippines, the postponement of the census has had can still take place, especially given the ongoing pandemic,
significant consequences for field operations, especially such as applying alternative data collection methods and
technologies.

Sources:
• https://www.unescap.org/covid19/policy-responses
• https://unescap.org/announcement/asia-pacific-stats-cafe-series

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Maintaining civil registration and vital statistics

during the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa
Emergencies like the current COVID-19 pandemic are disruptive for the provision of civil registration services,
especially in Africa where the capacity of most systems are weak. The current pandemic has shown the
vulnerabilities of the civil registration systems at a time when CRVS services are most required.

Figure 1. Is civil registration an essential service? Figure 2. Impact of COVID-19 on civil registration
authorities

Civil registration systems generate data that are critical for 17.19.2 “Proportion of countries that (a) have conducted at
monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), least one population and housing census in the last 10 years;
the African Union Agenda 2063 and other developmental and (b) have achieved 100 per cent birth registration and 80 per
frameworks. Data generated from civil registration and vital cent death registration.” The Economic Commission for Africa
statistics (CRVS) systems are the preferred source of data for (ECA) has placed high priority in building and strengthening civil
the measurement of over 65 SDG indicators. registration systems in Africa, which are critical for achieving
human rights, for supporting administrative actions, and for
Member States, through their commitment to the 2030
producing vital statistics.
Agenda for Sustainable Development, aim to solve the lack of
legal identity by achieving universal birth registration coverage. It is imperative that during emergencies such COVID-!9,
This commitment is outlined in Sustainable Development civil registration systems continue to function as they fulfill
(SDG) indicator 16.9.1 “Proportion of children under 5 years critical functions. A rapid assessment conducted by ECA
of age whose births have been registered with a civil authority, showed that 29 out of the 34 countries consider CRVS as an
by age”. Achieving universal birth registration is catalytic for essential service. Nevertheless, only 9 countries reported that
achieving at least 10 of the 17 SDGs, including no poverty, CRVS was not affected by the pandemic, while 23 countries
zero hunger, good health and wellbeing, quality education, reported partial closures and 2 countries totally closed down
decent work and economic growth, peace justice and strong registration offices.
institutions. SDG Target 17.19 aims to support statistical In an effort to mitigate the impact the pandemic on CRVS
capacity-building in countries and is measured by indicator

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operations, a number of working arrangements have been Figure 3. Changes in working arrangements
implemented in African countries to ensure continuity. These (percentage)
arrangements include (a) working in shifts or a rotational basis
where only part of the staff are expected to be present, (b)
working online from home (telecommuting) for those whose
functions can be performed remotely, (c) limiting office
presence to staff deemed critical or essential, (d) reducing
working hours, (e) restricting the workload to birth and death
registration, (f) using mobile offices, and (g) working by
appointment only.

Recommendations for CRVS continuity in

Africa
• Countries should establish disaster resilient civil
registration systems in Africa that can continue to
function under precarious circumstances.
• Civil registration systems should make temporary
changes to registration processes. For example, through
revision of existing standard operating procedures,
rules regarding who can notify civil registrars of births
and deaths can be expanded and waivers for persons
who may not have the documents that are required for
registration can be introduced.
• While peaks are to be expected especially for death accelerate the improvement of CRVS systems and the
registration during the pandemic, significant backlogs in achievement of legal identity for all on the continent.
birth and marriage registration need to be addressed. • Pandemics such as COVID-19 may actually accelerate
• The vital statistics function needs to be maintained to the implementation of online and automated systems of
enable production of timely, accurate and disaggregated registration. If the CRVS systems already offers services
small area data for administrative and statistical use. remotely, those services should be augmented, and the
It is essential to integrate civil registration data with public should be encouraged to use online registration.
other key population datasets e.g. physical addresses • Privacy and confidentiality of individuals should be
and migration data (through a population register) to maintained. Particular attention should be paid to those
facilitate communication between governments and the groups which may already face discrimination such as
population. hard to reach or marginalized communities (e.g. ethnic
• Automated methods of data collection that reduce face- and language minorities, refugees and migrants).
face interactions should be used. More generally, the
use of digital technology, mobile phones and tablets will

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The impact of COVID-19 on tourism statistics

The COVID-19 pandemic is not only impacting the tourism sector in all regions of the world, but also causing
challenges in the sphere of collecting tourism statistics. Statistical activities for collecting tourism data are being
temporarily affected. At the same time, the tourism sector is changing and, with it, the associated statistical
needs for monitoring tourism activities.

Figure 1. Tourist arrivals

Source: UNWTO (June 2020).

Defining tourism with a staggering 97 per cent decline in April. This translated
into a loss of US$ 195 billion from inbound tourism.
Tourism is an economic, social and cultural phenomenon
related to people who move to places outside their usual Impact on statistical activities and
place of residence. These persons, referred to as visitors, recommendations
include both tourists and excursionists. Tourism comprises
A recent survey conducted among national statistical
the activities of visitors, undertaken by those who are travelling
offices and national tourism administrations reveals that the
for holiday, leisure and recreation as well for business,
main sources for data on tourism are heavily impacted by
health, education or any other purpose with the exception of
COVID-19 measures (figure 2). Closures of borders, movement
employment by an entity resident in the destination country.
restrictions and lockdowns have resulted in cancellations
As an economic sector, tourism comprises numerous
or postponements of the main surveys, with border surveys
industries: accommodation for visitors, food and beverage
being the most affected (70%), followed by household surveys
serving activities, passenger transport (air, road, railway,
(40%) and accommodation surveys (30%). Conversely,
water, equipment rental), travel agencies and other reservation
the role of administrative sources has been reinforced: 20
services as well as cultural, sports and recreational events.
per cent of countries reported using administrative data
Impact on tourism arrivals sources to temporarily fill gaps created by the cancellation or
postponement of surveys.
The map above illustrates the extraordinary impact that
COVID-19 is having on tourism in the world. Inbound tourist To ensure international comparability and data consistency,
arrivals were down 44 per cent in the first four months of 2020, the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) is

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STATISTICAL
preparing guidance to clarify the use of existing international and all to enjoy, but also economic opportunities and social
standards and recommendations for collecting tourism benefits for communities. The impact of crises such as the
statistics in the context of COVID-19. Situations such as current pandemic, and mitigation and recovery efforts, are
quarantine periods for visitors, travel to second homes for intertwined with the sector’s sustainability. With this in mind,
confinement, accommodation establishments converted into UNWTO is advancing a statistical framework for Measuring
hospitals or isolation centers and visitors´ expenditure on the Sustainability of Tourism (MST) that enables the derivation
(mandatory) tests are new to tourism statistics and require of key indicators for monitoring the impact of COVID-19 on
careful consideration by countries when compiling data. tourism as well as the effect of recovery efforts.

More data needs for the tourism sector

The pandemic is also a reminder that sustainability in tourism
means not only a healthy natural environment for visitors

Figure 2. Effect of COVID-19 on the collection of tourism surveys and administrative sources*

*Results based on data reported by 74 countries from April to June 2020.

Link to metadata:
• International Recommendations for Tourism Statistics 2008
• International Recommendations for Tourism Statistics 2008 Compilation Guide
• https://www.unwto.org/methodology
• Measuring the Sustainability of Tourism: https://www.unwto.org/Measuring-Sustainability-Tourism

Sources:
• UNWTO statistical database available through the UNWTO E-library and Dashboard: https://www.e-unwto.org/
• https://www.unwto.org/unwto-tourism-dashboard
• UNWTO COVID-19 webpage: https://www.unwto.org/tourism-covid-19

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