EXAMPLE 2.2: The Cement Factory Case: Solution
EXAMPLE 2.2: The Cement Factory Case: Solution
EXAMPLE 2.2: The Cement Factory Case: Solution
As discussed in the introduction to this chapter, the Houston American Cement factory will require an
investment of $200 million to construct. Delays beyond the anticipated implementation year of 2012
will require additional money to construct the factory. Assuming that the cost of money is 10% per
year, compound interest, use spreadsheet functions to determine the following for the board of
directors of the Brazilian company that plans to develop the plant.
Solution:
Figure is a cash flow diagram showing the expected investment of $200 million ($200 M) in 2012, which
we will identify as time t=0 . The required investments 3 years in the future and 4 years in the past are
indicated by F 3=? and P− 4=? ,respectively.
(a) To find the equivalent investment required in 3 years, apply the F/P factor. Use $1 million units
and the tabulated value for 10% interest.
F 3=P( F /P , i ,n)=200( F /P , 10 % , 3)=200(1.3310)
¿ $ 266.2($ 266,200,000)
n i PV FV
3 10% $200 ($266.20)
(b) The year 2008 is 4 years prior to the planned construction date of 2012. To determine the
equivalent cost 4 years earlier, consider the $200 M in 2012 (t =0) as the future value F and
Summery:
In this example we must calculate two values, one for future and one is for past. The value of past is
$136.6 million while the value of the future is $266.2 million. This equivalence analysis indicates that at
$136.6 M in 2008, the plant would have cost about 68% as much as in 2012, and that waiting until 2015
will cause the price tag to increase about 33% to $266 M. From this to plant must be built in 2008 to save
the amount. Because the cost is low.
(b) To determine the minimum required to realize a 10% per year return, use the A/P factor.
A=200( A/ P , 10 % , 5)=200(0.26380)
¿ $ 52.76 per year
n i PV A
($52.76
5 10% $200 )
Summery:
We use PV and PMT functions to answer both part of question.
(a) The use of ¿ PV (i% , n , A , F) on the left side to find the present worth of $189.4 million. The
present worth value is less than the investment plus a 10% per year return, so the president should
not be satisfied with the projected annual revenue. So, this project is worthless.
(b) The use of ¿ PMT ( i% ,n , P , F ) on the right side to determine the minimum A of $52,760,000
per year. This part is the solution to tell how much project must develop money to keep safe us
from the lost. The plant needs to generate $52,760,000 per year to realize a 10% per year return
over 5 years.
(b) The president of the Brazilian company planning to develop the cement plant in Georgia is
getting worried about the international economy. He wants the revenue stream to generate the
equivalent that it would at a 10% per year return, that is, $305.255 million, but thinks that only a
4.5% per year return is achievable.
0.045
A=305.255( A/ F , 4.5 % , 5)=305.255
[ (1.045)5 −1 ]
=305.255(0.18279)
¿ $ 55.798
n i F A
5 4.5% ($305.26) $55.80
Summery:
This question has two parts so, I will explain it into two parts.
(a) Apply the FV factor in the format ¿ FV (10 % , 5,50) to determine F=$ 305.255 million.
Because there is no present amount in this computation. If the rate of return on the annual
revenues were 0%, the total amount after 5 years would be $250,000,000. The 10% per year
return is projected to grow this value by 22%.
(b) It is easy to answer this question by using the ¿ PMT ¿ ) function with i=4.5 % and
F=$ 305.255 found in part (a) . The annual revenue requirement grows from $50 million to
nearly $55,800,000. This is a significant increase of 11.6% each year.
(a) The investment series is a decreasing arithmetic gradient with a base amount of $100 M in year 1
(2013) and G=$−25 M through year 4 (2016). Figure diagrams the cash flows with the shaded
area showing the constantly declining investment each year. The PT value at time 0 at 10% per
year is determined by:
PT =P A −P G=100(P / A ,10 % , 4)−25(P /G , 10 % , 4 )
¿ 100(3.1699)−25(4.3781)
¿ $ 207.537( $ 207,537,000)
G ($25)
Investmen
year n t
2012 0
2013 1 $100 i P
2014 2 $75 10% $207.53
2015 3 $50
2016 4 $25
(b) There are two equally correct ways to find AT . First, apply Equation that utilizes the A/G factor,
and second, use the PT value obtained above and the A/P factor.
AT =100 – 25( A /G ,10 % , 4)=100−25(1.3812)
¿ $ 65.471($ 65,471,000 per year )
Use PT :
AT =207.537( A /P ,10 % , 4)=207.537( 0.31547)
¿ $ 65.471 per year
n i P A
($65.47
4 10% $207.53 )
(c) The Goal Seek tool is described in Appendix A. It is an excellent tool to apply when one cell
entry must equal a specific value and only one other cell can change. This is the case here:
G ($26.72)
Investmen
year n t
2012 0
2013 1 $100.00 i P
2014 2 $73.28 10% $200.00
2015 3 $46.56
2016 4 $19.84
Summery:
This question has three part. All of them are explain below:
(a) Since there is no spreadsheet function to directly display present worth for a gradient series, enter
the cash flows in a sequence of cells (rows or columns) and use the NPV function to find present
worth. In present worth terms, the planned series will exceed the equivalent of $200 M in 2012 by
approximately $7.5 M.
(b) Apply the PMT function to obtain the same AT =$ 65.471 per year. For this we required number
of year (n) and the interest rate and the present value which we have calculated in part (a).
(c) The Goal Seek tool is described in Appendix A. It is an excellent tool to apply when one cell
entry must equal a specific value and only one other cell can change. This is the case here; the
NPV function must equal $200, and the gradient G is unknown. This is the same as stating
PT =200 in Equation and solving for G. When OK is clicked, the solution is displayed;
G=$−26.721. This means that if the investment is decreased by a constant annual amount of
$26.721 M, the equivalent total present worth invested over the 4 years will be exactly $200 M.
EXAMPLE 2.12 The Cement Factory Case
Now let us go back to the proposed Houston American Cement plant in Georgia. The revenue series
estimate of $50 million annually is quite optimistic, especially since there are many other cement product
plants operating in Florida and Georgia on the same limestone deposit. (The website for the HAC plant
shows where they are located currently; keen competition will be present.) Therefore, it is important to be
sensitive in our analysis to possibly declining and increasing revenue series, depending upon the longer-
term success of the plant’s marketing, quality, and reputation. Assume that revenue may start at $50
million by the end of the first year, but then decreases geometrically by 12% per year through year 5.
Determine the present worth and future worth equivalents of all revenues during this 5-year time frame
at the same rate used previously, that is, 10% per year.
Solution:
A1 ( 1−g )n−1=50 M (1−0.12)5 – 1=50(0.88)4 =$ 29.98 M
n g A1 A1(1-g)n-1
5 12% $50 29.985
0.88 5
Pg =50 [ 1.10 ( )
1−
0.10−(−0.12) ]
¿ 50[3.0560]
¿ $ 152.80
n i g A1 1+g 1+i Pg
5 10% -12% $50 88% 110% $152.80
n i Pg F
5 10% $152.80 ($246.09)
Summery:
This problem is related to the geometric gradient. This question has two parts. Now I explain both:
(a) In this we calculated the Pg =$ 152.80. For this we used the excel sheet and put the formula for
the present worth. First revenue starts at the $50M. its value is continuously decrease
geometrically by 12% every year in equal ratio.
(b) In this we calculated the future worth which is equal to the $246.09M. If we compare it with the
previous explain in which the future worth is $305.255M for uniformly revenue series of 5 years.
In conclusion, the 12% declining geometric gradient has lowered the future worth of revenue by
$59.175 M, which is a sizable amount from the perspective of the owners of Votorantim
Cimentos North America, Inc.
P A i year
($200) $50 10% 5
($200) $50 15% 7
($200) $50 20% 9
Summery:
In this problem we must calculate the number of years. This can be done easily by the spread sheet. This
is a good opportunity to utilize a spreadsheet and repeated NPER functions since several i values are
involved. the single cell ¿ NPER(i % , 50 ,−200) function for each rate of return. In this the value of i
change from 10% to 20%. First value of i=10 % for this the number of years is 5. Second value of
i=15 % f0r this the number of years is 7.Third value of i=15 % f0r this the number of years is 9.
EXAMPLE 5.2 Water for Semiconductor Manufacturing Case
As discussed in the introduction to this chapter, ultrapure water (UPW) is an expensive commodity for the
semiconductor industry. With the options of seawater or groundwater sources, it is a good idea to
determine if one system is more economical than the other. Use a MARR of 12% per year and the present
worth method to select one of the systems.
Solution:
An important first calculation is the cost of UPW per year. The general relation and estimated costs for
the two options are as follows:
$ cost ∈$
UPW cost relation: = (
year 1000 gallons )( gallons minutes hours days
minute )( hour )( day )( year )
Seawater: ( 4/1000)(1500)(60)( 16)(250)=$ 1.44 M per year
Groundwater: (5/1000)(1500)(60)(16)(250)=$ 1.80 M per year
Calculate the PW at i=12 % per year and select the option with the lower cost (larger PW value). In $1
million units:
PW relation: PW = first cost - PW of AOC - PW of UPW + PW of salvage value
PW S =−20−0.5(P/ A , 12% ,10)−1.44( P/ A , 12 % , 10)+ 0.05(20)( P/F , 12% ,10)
¿−20−0.5(5.6502)−1.44(5.6502)+ 1(0.3220)
¿ $−30.64
first cost= -20
PW of
n i A AOC
10 12% 0.5 ($2.83)
PW of
n i A UPW
10 12% 1.44 ($8.14)
PW of
salvage
n i F value
10 12% 1 ($0.32)
PWS ($30.64)
PW of
n i A UPW
10 12% 1.8 ($10.17)
PW of
salvage
n i F value
10 12% 2.2 ($0.71)
PWS ($33.16)
Summery:
In this problem we must compare the present worth for two project one is for the sea water project and the
other project is the ground water project. For the sea water project first, we calculate the present worth of
AOC which is equal to the $2.83. Then in second step we calculate the present worth of UPW which is
equal to the $8.14. Then in third step we calculate the present worth of salvage value which is equal to the
$0.32. Then we calculate the present worth for the seawater project which is equal to $30.64. Similarly,
we repeated the whole step to calculate the present worth of ground water project which is equal to the
$33.16.
Based on this present worth analysis, the seawater option is cheaper by $2.52 M.
Seawate
Year r Ground water
0 -20 -22
1 -1.94 -2.1
2 -1.94 -2.1
3 -1.94 -2.1
4 -1.94 -2.1
5 -1.94 -2.1
6 -1.94 -2.1
7 -1.94 -2.1
8 -1.94 -2.1
9 -1.94 -2.1
10 -0.94 0.1
PW ($ M) ($26.43) ($28.32)
Summery:
The decision switched between the LCM and study period approaches. Both are correct answers given the
decision of how the equal-service requirement is met. This analysis demonstrates how important it is to
compare mutually exclusive alternatives over time periods that are believable and to take the time
necessary to make the most accurate cost, life, and MARR estimates when the evaluation is performed.
If the PW evaluation is incorrectly performed using the respective lives of the two options, the equal-
service requirement is violated, and PW values favor the shorter-lived option, that is, seawater. The PW
values are
Option S: n= 5 years, PW S =$−26.43 M ,
Option G: n= 10 years, PW G=$−33.16 M ,
Our case study has progressed (in Example 5.4) to the point that the life of the seawater option can be
extended to 10 years with a major refurbishment cost after 5 years. This extension is possible only one
time, after which a new life cycle would commence. In $1 million units, the estimates and PW values are
as follows:
Seawater: PS =$−20 ; AOC S =$−1.94 ; n S=10 years ; refurbishment , year 5=$−10;
SS =0.05(20)=$ 1.00 ; PW S =$ 36.31
Groundwater: PG =$−22 ; AOC G =$−2.10; n G=10 years ; S G=0.10(22)=$ 2.2;
PW G=$−33.16
If we assume that the UPW (ultrapure water) requirement will continue for the foreseeable future, a good
number to know is the present worth of the long-term options at the selected MARR of 12% per year.
What are these capitalized costs for the two options using the estimates made thus far?
Solution:
Seawater: A S=PW S ( A / P ,12 % ,10)=−36.31( 0.17698)=$−6.43
CC S=−6.43 /0.12=$−53.58
n i PW A CCS
10 12% 36.31 ($6.43) ($53.55)
Economic Dimension:
Monetary Estimate:
Solution:
The perspective of each viewpoint is identified and estimates are classified. (How this classification is
done will vary depending upon who does the analysis. This solution offers only one logical answer.)
Viewpoint 1: Citizen of the city of Allen. Goal: Maximize the quality of life and wellness of citizens with
family and neighborhood as prime concerns.
Viewpoint 2: Allen Water Utilities budget. Goal: Ensure the budget is balanced and of sufficient size to
fund rapidly growing city service demands.
Costs: 2, 3, 6 Benefits: 1, 5, 7 Disbenefits: 4
Citizens view costs in a different light than a city budget employee does. For example, the loss of
property values (item 4) is considered a real cost to a citizen but is an unfortunate disbenefit from the city
budget perspective. Similarly, the Allen Water Utilities budget interprets estimate 3 (payment for use of
land to Parks and Recreation) as a real cost; but a citizen might interpret this as merely a movement of
funds between two municipal budgets—therefore, it is a disbenefit, not a real cost.
Summery:
The consideration of disbenefits can without much of a stretch change the financial choice.
Notwithstanding, concession to the disbenefits and their money related appraisals is difficult (to difficult)
to grow, frequently bringing about the avoidance of any disbenefit from the monetary investigation.
Sadly, this normally moves the thought of disbenefit to the noneconomic (i.e., political) domain of public
venture dynamic.
As our case unfolds, the consultant, Joel Whiterson, has pieced together some of the B/C analysis
estimates for the 84-inch Jolleyville transmission main study completed last year. The two options for
constructing this main were open trench (OT) for the entire 6.8-mile distance or a combination of
trenching and bore tunneling (TT) for a shorter route of 6.3 miles. One of the two options had to be
selected to transport approximately 300 million gallons per day (gpd) of treated water from the new
WTF3 to an existing aboveground reservoir.
The general manager of Allen Water Utilities has stated publicly several times that the trench-tunnel
combination option was selected over the open-trench alternative based on analysis of both quantitative
and nonquantitative data. He stated the equivalent annual costs in an internal e-mail some months ago,
based on the expected construction periods of 24 and 36 months, respectively, as equivalent to
This analysis indicated that the open-trench option was economically better, at that time. The planning
horizon for the transmission mains is 50 years; this is a reasonable study period, Joel concluded. Use the
estimates below that Joel has unearthed to perform a correct incremental B/C analysis and comment on
the results. The interest (discount) rate is 3% per year, compounded annually, and 1 mile is 5280 feet.
Solution:
PW OT =PW of construction+ PW of construction support costs
¿ 700(6.8)(5280)+250,000(12)(P/ A ,3 % ,2)
¿ $ 30,873,300
n i PW of C PW of CSC PWOT
$30,873,209.0
2 3% 25132800 $5,740,409.09 9
n i P AWOT
50 3% $30,873,209.09 $1,199,902.54
¿ $ 61,010,460
n i PW of CC PW of CSC PWTT
$61,010,483.8
3 3% 55070400 $5,940,083.85 5
n i P AWTT
50 3% $61,010,483.85 $2,371,202.62
The trench-tunnel (TT) alternative has a larger equivalent cost; it must be justified against the OT
alternative. The incremental cost is
The difference between ancillary expenses defines the incremental benefit for TT.
PWOT-ans¿ 310,000(12)(P/ A ,3 % , 2)
¿ $ 7,118,220
n i A PWOT-anc
2 3% -3720000 $7,118,107.27
AW OT −ans=7,118,220 ( A /P , 3 % , 50)
¿ $ 2,885,172
n i A PWTT-anc
3 3% -1020000 $2,885,183.58
n i AWOT-ans AWTT-ans
50 3% $276,648.76 $112,134.09
∆ B/ ∆C=0.16/1.17=0.14
C B B/C
$1,171,300.0 $164,514.6
8 7 0.14045476
Summery:
One of the options should be chosen, and the development lives are inconsistent. Since it isn't sensible to
accept that this development undertaking will be rehashed numerous cycles later, it is wrong to direct an
AW examination over the individual consummation times of 24 and three years, or the LCM of these time
spans. Be that as it may, the examination time of 50 years is a sensible assessment time span since the
mains are viewed as perpetual establishments. We can expect that the development first costs are a
current worth incentive in year 0. PW and 50-year AW of other month to month costs should be resolved.
∆B
Since ≪1.0 , the trench-tunnel option is not economically justified. Joel can now conclude that the
∆C
general manager’s earlier comment that the TT option was selected based on quantitative and
nonquantitative data must have had heavy dependence on nonquantitative information not yet discovered.
Land for Water Treatment Facility #3 was initially purchased in the year 2010 for $19.3 million;
however, when it was publicized, influential people around Allen spoke strongly against the location. We
will call this location 1. Some of the plant design had already been completed when the general manager
announced that this site was not the best choice anyway, and that it would be sold and a different, better
site (location 2) would be purchased for $28.5 million. This was well over the budget amount of $22.0
million previously set for land acquisition. As it turns out, there was a third site (location 3) available for
$35.0 million that was never seriously considered.
In his review and after much resistance from Allen Water Utilities staff, the consultant, Joel, received a
copy of the estimated costs and benefits for the three plant location options. The revenues, savings, and
sale of bulk water rights to other communities are estimated as increments from a base amount for all
three locations. Using the assumption of a very long life for the WTF3 facility and the established
discount rate of 3% per year, determine what Joel discovered when he did the B/C analysis. Was the
general manager correct in concluding that location 2 was the best, all said and done?
Solution:
Source Location 1 Location 2 Location 3
Land cost,
19.3 28.5 35
$M
Facility 1st
460 446 446
cost, $M
Benefits, $
per year:
Pumping
5 3 0
cost saving
sales to area
communitie 12 10 8
s
Added
revenue 6 6 6
from Allen
Total
benefits, $ 23 19 14
per year
Location 1:
AW of costs=A of land cost+ A of facility fi rst cost
¿(19.3+ 460.0)(0.03)
¿ $ 14.379 per year
Land cost FFC i AW1
19.3 460 3% 14.379
Location 2:
AW of costs=$ 14.235
Land cost FFC i AW2
28.5 446 3% 14.235
Location 3:
AW of costs=$ 14.430
Land cost FFC i AW3
35 446 3% 14.43