Asia Pacific Equity Research

09 April 2020

Correction (See page 16 for details)

Crash scene investigated

ASEAN Equity Strategy

 At the risk of sounding repetitive, we reiterate our cautious stance on Southeast Asia Equity Strategy
ASEAN equities. We acknowledge that this is now a consensus view but we
Rajiv Batra AC
expect equities to continue to decline as GDP and EPS are revised lower. (65) 6882-8151
Valuations look attractive but we caution that current forward P/E multiples [email protected]
appear too low considering that the denominators are likely still high. Bloomberg JPMA BATRA <GO>
Policymakers’ response has stepped up materially via a combination of J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private
monetary easing and fiscal support to ease tightened household and corporate Limited
cash flows. The path ahead seems to be bifurcated between the path of the virus Hoy Kit Mak
and the impact of the support policies on the economy. This report reviews (60-3) 2718-0713
GDP/EPS revisions (page 6), bond/FX movements (page 7), and [email protected]
regional/country valuations. JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd.
(18146-X)

 In this note, we revise the targets for the MSCI and the local indices in the Jeanette Yutan
six countries that we cover in the ASEAN region (see page 9 to 14 for (63-2) 8878-1188
[email protected]
base/bull/bear scenario at country level). Most ASEAN countries except
J.P. Morgan Securities Philippines, Inc.
Thailand are trading well below their historical valuations, making it a
challenge to pick target multiples. We assume re-rating to 10 year average Henry Wibowo
levels for majority of markets in the base case scenario. In the bull case (622-1) 5291 8526
[email protected]
scenario, we assume markets re-rate to +1SD levels. In the bear case, we
PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia
assume multiples go back to 10 year trough levels.
EM Equity Strategist
 Consensus earnings expectations are too high, in our view. Be aware of Pedro Martins Junior, CFA
companies’ operational leverage and the impact of difficult credit conditions on (55-11) 4950-4121
profits. We believe that stock, rather than market specific risk, will dominate [email protected]
over the next two quarters as investors focus on companies’ success in Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.
navigating a tough environment. Anindita Gandhi
(91-22) 6157-3248
 We would be selective buyers within ASEAN equities, albeit with a defensive [email protected]
bias. We recommend focusing on adding positions in companies with strong J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
balance sheets and strong earnings growth profiles. Please see Table 14 for our Jainik Mody, CFA
top picks in ASEAN. Our preferred sectors are consumer staples, telecom and (44 20) 3493-0443
good quality banks. [email protected]
J.P. Morgan Securities plc
 When will we turn bullish? This will largely depend on whether we see the
following: stabilizing virus infection curves globally, no negative spiral which
is typical of recessions, and the IMF and central banks act promptly to provide
dollar liquidity to the key EM economies.

See page 15 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in
making their investment decision.
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
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(65) 6882-8151 09 April 2020
[email protected]

Table 1: New index targets for 2020

Country Index MSCI Index Targets Upside/downside (%) Target PE 2021 EPS Local Index Targets
levels Base Bull Bear Base Bull Bear Base Bull Bear Base Bull Bear Base Bull Bear
Indonesia 5150 5900 6500 4050 15% 26% -21% 14.3 15.5 11.0 409.8 414.6 369.2 5250 5800 3600
Singapore 288 315 385 230 9% 34% -21% 13.1 14.0 10.5 23.8 27.2 21.8 2800 3400 1600
Philippines 930 970 1430 600 4% 54% -35% 14.8 18.9 10.8 66.2 76.7 57.6 5800 8500 3600
Thailand 429 410 450 270 -5% 5% -37% 14.0 15.0 10.0 29.1 30.3 26.4 1150 1275 750
Malaysia 463 440 490 340 -5% 6% -27% 15.2 16.0 12.5 29.1 30.5 26.9 1300 1450 1000
Vietnam 623 715 830 520 15% 33% -17% 14.5 15.8 11.8 49.3 52.9 44.8 950 1050 550
Source: J.P. Morgan, MSCI, IBES, Bloomberg.

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 Rajiv Batra Asia Pacific Equity Research
(65) 6882-8151 09 April 2020
[email protected]

ASEAN Equity Outlook

At the risk of sounding repetitive, we reiterate our 1. The impacts of operating and financial leverage on
cautious stance on ASEAN equities. We acknowledge earnings as companies face a slowing nominal GDP
that this is now a consensus view but we expect environment with economies growing below
equities to continue to decline as GDP and EPS are potential.
revised lower. Valuations look attractive but we caution
that current forward P/E multiples appear too low 2. Weak pricing power as the demand outlook
considering that the denominators are likely still high. deteriorates globally and domestically in some cases.
Policymakers’ response has stepped up materially via a 3. Higher financing costs and lower availability of
combination of monetary easing and fiscal support to funds.
ease tightened household and corporate cash flows. The
path ahead seems to be bifurcated between the path of the 4. Outlier variables risks – failure of customers and
virus and the impact of the support policies on the suppliers, 'over-hedging' in volatile markets, mark to
economy. market of investments made.

Much of the global stimulus came in the form of loans 5. Lower commodity prices provide some margin
rather than grants. Loans are better than nothing, but it pressure relief for manufacturers. But watch for
will add to the debt overhang problem for the business inventory write-downs and a collapse in material
sector. There could be material spillovers in the DM from margins.
the severe services sector retrenchment to final goods In the near term, a few ASEAN countries may benefit
demand, with a knock-on to corporate behavior from a reduction in risk premium as Singapore is
especially given that global capex started the year on a expected to be the first to see a peak, in early April,
soft footing. followed by Malaysia and Thailand in mid-April, as per
the epidemiology model from MW Kim, Ling Wang &
In this note, we revise the targets for the MSCI and team. However, even as China’s manufacturing sector
the local indices in the six countries that we cover in normalizes, we now face a third shock, the global
the ASEAN region (see page 9 to 14 for base/bull/bear recession. In this regard, open economies like Singapore,
scenario at country level). Most ASEAN countries Thailand and Malaysia will be more deeply impacted
except Thailand are trading well below their historical compared to those that are more domestically driven.
valuations, making it a challenge to pick target multiples. Note, even domestic driven economies like Indonesia and
We assume re-rating to 10 year average levels for the Philippines will suffer in the near/medium term as
majority of markets in the base case scenario. In the bull government containment measures against Covid-19
case scenario, we assume markets re-rate to +1SD levels. have led to closure or limited operations of commercial
In the bear case, we assume multiples go back to 10 year establishments such as shopping malls, restaurants, and
trough levels. non-essential outlets/stores. We also believe that a
second order impact on consumption, i.e. deep job losses
We used bottom up and top down earnings from both J.P. could reinforce or re-shape consumer behavior (see page
Morgan and consensus to derive our base case for 8). Hence underperformance of ASEAN is likely to
earnings. Underlying this assumption is the view that the continue versus AxJ, in our view.
pandemic should crest in early 2Q20, providing the
tailwinds for recovery in 2H20. In the event that this We would be selective buyers within ASEAN equities,
assumption proves too optimistic, material downside albeit with a defensive bias. We recommend focusing on
remains for the region. adding positions in companies with strong balance sheets
and strong earnings growth profiles. Please see Table 14
Economic revisions for Asia have gone through several for the top picks in ASEAN. Our preferred sectors are
iterations since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak. consumer staples, telecom and good quality banks.
J.P .Morgan’s economic team is forecasting a recession
in Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia. GDP growth for When will we turn bullish? This will largely depend on
other ASEAN countries is significantly below potential. whether we see the following: stabilizing virus infection
However consensus earnings expectations are still too curves globally, no negative spiral which is typical of
high relative to the macro backdrop. The drivers for recessions, and the IMF and central banks act promptly
further downward revisions are: to provide dollar liquidity to the key EM economies.

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 Rajiv Batra Asia Pacific Equity Research
(65) 6882-8151 09 April 2020
[email protected]
Figure 1: ASEAN Infection Curve: “Conceptual” Schematic chart Figure 4: 12M Forward P/E

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

EM Asia

Philippines
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

Figure 2: Real GDP trajectory Indonesia

EM

Singapore

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

P/E Ratio 15Y Avg.

Source: National Sources, J.P. Morgan Estimates

Table 2: Earnings growth

Source: National sources, J.P. Morgan estimates.
2020 EPS Growth (%) 2021 EPS Growth (%)
Country JPM Consensus JPM Consensus
Figure 3: ASEAN fiscal stimulus package ((U$bn, %) Indonesia (11.0) 4.7 20.2 11.7
80.0 18.0% Singapore (20.0) (7.4) 9.7 11.8
70.0 16.3% 16.0% Philippines (1.6) 3.4 15.0 12.7
14.0%
Thailand (12.8) (5.5) 16.9 15.3
60.0 13.3% Malaysia (11.8) (1.0) 7.4 9.7
12.0%
50.0 11.5% Vietnam N/A 5.2 N/A 24.0
10.0%
40.0 Source: IBES, MSCI, Datastream, Bloomberg
70.2 8.0%
30.0 59.6
6.0%
20.0 41.8
Table 3: Forward P/E
5.6 4.0%
27.2
10.0 2.4% 3.4
2.0% Current +1SD 10Y Avg -1SD -2SD Trough
1.6% 1.3%
- 0.0%
Indonesia 11.6 15.5 14.3 13.0 11.8 11.0
Malaysia Thailand Singapore Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Singapore 11.0 14.0 13.1 12.2 11.3 10.5
Philippines 11.2 18.9 16.9 14.9 12.9 10.8
Stimulus package (U$bn) Stimulus/GDP (% -RHS) Thailand 14.2 14.7 12.9 11.1 9.4 9.1
Malaysia 14.8 16.0 15.2 14.3 13.4 12.5
Source: National Sources, J.P. Morgan Estimates Vietnam 13.0 19.9 15.8 11.8 7.7 10.8
Source: IBES, MSCI, Datastream, Bloomberg

Table 4: New index targets for 2020

Country Index MSCI Index Targets Upside/downside (%) Target PE 2021 EPS Local Index Targets
levels Base Bull Bear Base Bull Bear Base Bull Bear Base Bull Bear Base Bull Bear
Indonesia 5150 5900 6500 4050 15% 26% -21% 14.3 15.5 11.0 409.8 414.6 369.2 5250 5800 3600
Singapore 288 315 385 230 9% 34% -21% 13.1 14.0 10.5 23.8 27.2 21.8 2800 3400 1600
Philippines 930 970 1430 600 4% 54% -35% 14.8 18.9 10.8 66.2 76.7 57.6 5800 8500 3600
Thailand 429 410 450 270 -5% 5% -37% 14.0 15.0 10.0 29.1 30.3 26.4 1150 1275 750
Malaysia 463 440 490 340 -5% 6% -27% 15.2 16.0 12.5 29.1 30.5 26.9 1300 1450 1000
Vietnam 623 715 830 520 15% 33% -17% 14.5 15.8 11.8 49.3 52.9 44.8 950 1050 550
Source: J.P. Morgan, MSCI, IBES, Bloomberg.

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Table 5: 2020 & 2021 Consensus EPS estimate revision (%)

2020 2021
1M 3M 6M 12M 1M 3M 6M 12M
EM (10.2) (14.6) (14.3) (23.3) (8.2) (11.5) (10.4) (19.0)
APxJ (8.3) (12.0) (11.5) (19.8) (6.5) (8.9) (7.5) (15.3)
ASEAN (12.7) (19.5) (20.7) (26.2) (9.9) (15.8) (17.3) (22.7)
ASEAN Utilities (6.8) (12.8) (17.3) (19.1) (6.4) (11.5) (16.8) (16.5)
ASEAN Healthcare (7.0) (13.8) (15.0) (24.3) (6.0) (12.0) (13.2) (19.4)
ASEAN Telecom (7.4) (12.8) (13.4) (14.5) (7.4) (13.3) (13.8) 3.0
ASEAN Real Estate (7.5) (10.4) (11.0) (13.0) (4.5) (7.2) (9.8) (7.4)
ASEAN Cons Staples (7.5) (11.8) (12.5) (16.7) (7.0) (11.7) (12.2) (16.6)
ASEAN Financials (12.5) (18.4) (18.4) (22.1) (10.8) (16.1) (16.4) (20.2)
ASEAN Industrials (14.6) (21.9) (24.9) (27.4) (7.2) (12.7) (15.3) (12.8)
ASEAN Cons Disc (18.1) (28.9) (29.1) (36.9) (10.0) (17.8) (18.2) (26.3)
ASEAN Materials (20.1) (33.0) (37.8) (54.2) (15.5) (26.9) (31.3) (44.6)
ASEAN Energy (25.4) (35.4) (37.3) (41.6) (19.7) (28.2) (30.4) (32.5)
Singapore (9.2) (12.9) (15.9) (18.9) (5.3) (7.5) (10.5) (15.8)
Singapore Cons Staples (0.4) 2.9 (0.1) (6.7) 0.9 3.8 2.6 (1.3)
Singapore Telecom (2.2) (3.6) (9.3) (15.3) (1.3) (3.3) (9.1) 4.9
Singapore Real Estate (3.8) (3.9) (7.4) (6.9) (0.9) (0.2) (6.3) (1.5)
Singapore Financials (9.9) (13.9) (15.6) (18.3) (7.8) (10.4) (11.5) (15.5)
Singapore Cons Disc (12.6) (26.0) (28.7) (34.7) 0.1 (5.5) (9.3) (15.1)
Singapore Industrials (19.1) (25.2) (28.3) (30.9) (5.0) (8.8) (11.3) (11.1)
Malaysia (6.5) (11.7) (13.3) (19.2) (4.5) (8.7) (11.0) (15.3)
Malaysia Healthcare 2.6 2.5 (3.2) (13.4) 1.6 1.4 (2.8) (12.0)
Malaysia Telecom (1.4) (5.1) (7.4) (6.8) (1.6) (5.1) (7.4) (6.2)
Malaysia Utilities (2.2) (6.7) (8.6) (9.8) (1.7) (6.0) (8.0) (6.7)
Malaysia Cons Staples (2.8) (5.9) (5.7) (23.0) (1.6) (3.0) (4.2) (21.5)
Malaysia Energy (3.2) (7.2) (5.7) (5.0) (1.9) (4.9) (2.9) 0.5
Malaysia Financials (5.5) (7.8) (9.2) (13.4) (5.4) (8.4) (10.4) (12.4)
Malaysia Materials (15.4) (28.8) (33.5) (44.8) (12.4) (22.4) (26.4) (33.9)
Malaysia Cons Disc (17.1) (30.6) (29.7) (37.5) (4.8) (10.9) (10.3) (18.6)
Malaysia Industrials (17.6) (25.7) (24.7) (29.6) (6.6) (11.8) (11.5) (15.9)
Thailand (13.2) (20.4) (26.0) (34.1) (8.7) (15.0) (21.6) (29.3)
Thailand Cons Staples (2.1) (4.1) (8.4) (2) (2.5) (5.4) (9.9) (4.4)
Thailand Utilities (2.7) (2.5) (13.8) (2.4) (2.3) (1.6) (16.1) (2.9)
Thailand Telecom (4.5) (9.5) (8.7) 5.7 (4.8) (11.0) (10.5) 6.8
Thailand Healthcare (4.9) (10.8) (14.0) (24.5) (2.8) (6.7) (11.1) (20.0)
Thailand Industrials (5.8) (17.5) (18.9) (23.0) (5.2) (15.8) (16.4) (13.8)
Thailand Financials (10.1) (15.2) (24.4) (29.8) (6.1) (10.8) (22.8) (28.6)
Thailand Real Estate (12.1) (14.0) (17.6) (16.8) (5.6) (8.6) (13.3) (12.5)
Thailand Materials (15.5) (26.4) (35.2) (51.8) (8.9) (18.2) (26.7) (44.1)
Thailand Cons Disc (18.6) (26.3) (28.5) (32.2) (5.2) (11.3) (13.9) (18.0)
Thailand Energy (27.2) (35.2) (38.3) (44.8) (19.7) (25.5) (29.5) (34.3)
Indonesia (5.4) (8.2) (10.9) (18.0) (4.6) (7.1) (9.8) (17.0)
Indonesia Energy (0.3) (4.0) (10.0) (14.6) 1.7 (2.4) (6.8) (8.3)
Indonesia Cons Staples (1.4) (0.9) (2.5) (8.0) (1.3) (1.4) (2.0) (10.6)
Indonesia Telecom (3.8) (6.4) (11.6) (14.1) (3.7) (6.3) (10.3) (21.7)
Indonesia Real Estate (4.7) (9.7) (13.3) (15.2) (4.2) (9.1) (12.4) (10.0)
Indonesia Healthcare (5.0) (7.4) (7.2) (5.7) (3.1) (6.4) (6.2) NA
Indonesia Cons Disc (6.1) (7.6) (12.3) (18.4) (3.7) (5.6) (10.3) (16.2)
Indonesia Financials (6.1) (8.8) (11.1) (14.5) (5.4) (7.6) (10.5) (13.2)
Indonesia Industrials (7.1) (8.2) (16.2) (14.3) (5.7) (6.6) (12.4) (16.2)
Indonesia Materials (8.1) (8.7) (8.2) (62.9) (9.0) (9.6) (13.3) (0.1)
Indonesia Utilities (25.5) (37.4) (37.7) (40.3) (20.9) (27.4) (26.5) (29.6)
Philippines (4.5) (5.1) (9.5) (10.7) (3.2) (3.5) (7.5) (1.5)
Philippines Telecom 3.5 3.5 4.8 21.8 3.0 1.4 2.7 26.6
Philippines Utilities (2.2) (1.1) (2.1) (7.0) (2.2) (0.4) (0.6) (11.0)
Philippines Real Estate (4.4) (5.3) (6.2) (4.8) (2.1) (3.4) (3.9) 5.7
Philippines Industrials (4.6) (5.4) (17.8) (18.6) (5.3) (4.7) (16.1) (1.2)
Philippines Cons Staples (6.3) (6.4) (6.0) (9.5) (1.9) (1.8) (1.8) 3.4
Philippines Financials (6.8) (6.8) (4.4) (2.1) (3.0) (3.3) (1.1) 7.0
Philippines Cons Disc (14.5) (23.3) (35.8) (48.0) (9.0) (17.7) (28.7) (41.2)
Source: IBES, MSCI, Datastream

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Taking stock: GDP revision, interest rates, currencies and FX reserves

GDP growth revision Figure 5: Current J.P. Morgan vs. Consensus Forecasts for 2020
J.P. Morgan 2020 GDP estimates have been revised GDP (%)
down across the board in the face of COVID-19
pandemic (see Table 6). US and Australia saw the Hong Kong
highest downward revision to 2020 GDP estimates YTD Korea
at -7.0% and -6.7% respectively, closely followed by Euro Area
Thailand at -6.1%. Korea (-1.5%), Hong Kong (-1.7%),
Taiwan
and Taiwan (-1.9%) suffered the least downward revision
YTD to 2020 GDP forecasts likely on the back of China
prudent policies and limited industrial shutdown in the Indonesia
face of the epidemic. However, the supply chain Singapore
disruption is unlikely to leave these export oriented
Japan
economies unscathed.
Australia
J.P. Morgan estimates for 2020 GDP are significantly India
lower than consensus for most economies with the Thailand
exception of Hong Kong (+0.5%) and Korea (in-line).
US
2020 GDP deviation between J.P. Morgan estimates and
consensus estimates is largest in the Philippines and Malaysia
Malaysia (-5.1% each, see Figure 5). Philippines

(6.0) (5.0) (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0

J.P. Morgan estimates for 2020 GDP growth rates is the Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan economics
highest for Indonesia (+2.0) followed by China (+1.1%)
whereas Australia (-3.9%), Singapore (-3.9%) and Table 6: YTD revisions to 2020 and 2021 GDP growth forecasts
Thailand (-3.3%) are forecast to contract the most in J.P. Morgan Consensus
2020. 2020E 2021E 2020E 2021E
US (7.0) 2.7 (2.7) 0.4
Long bond yields Euro Area (4.6) 3.2 (4.1) 0.9
Japan (4.9) 0.4 (1.4) 0.3
US 10Y has declined to a record low in early 2020 and Australia (6.7) 4.3 (2.4) 0.1
currently 139bps lower than its average in 2019. Most Thailand (6.1) (0.0) (1.9) 0.2
Asia countries see their 10Y bond yield dropped India (5.3) 0.7 (0.1) (0.9)
considerably by 10 to 90 bps compared to 2019 average. Malaysia (5.3) (0.0) (0.4) 0.1
Philippines (5.2) 0.0 (0.2) 0.2
In contrast, Indonesia and Japan see an upward Singapore (5.0) (0.2) (2.2) 0.6
movement this year. China (4.8) 3.5 (2.6) 0.6
Indonesia (3.0) (2.0) (0.0) (0.1)
The current 10Y bond yield of Indonesia is higher than Taiwan (1.9) 0.4 (0.8) 0.5
Hong Kong (1.7) 2.0 (2.1) 0.5
2019 average by 60bps, and higher than YTD low by Korea (1.5) 0.1 (1.4) 0.5
more than 163 bps, suggesting a large range of Source: J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg. Note: Sorted by change in 2020 J.P. Morgan forecasts.
movement during 1Q20.
Table 7: Real GDP growth forecasts (%)
Except China, and Taiwan to some extent. Most
J.P. Morgan Consensus
countries saw their bond yield bounced considerably 2020E 2021E 2020E 2021E
from YTD low. US (5.3) 4.5 (0.9) 2.3
Euro Area (3.4) 4.7 (3.1) 2.2
Japan (4.4) 1.0 (1.0) 1.1
China 1.1 9.2 3.3 6.4
Korea 0.8 2.6 0.8 2.8
Taiwan 0.6 2.9 1.5 2.9
India 0.7 7.4 4.9 5.2
Thailand (3.3) 3.4 1.0 3.5
Indonesia 2.0 3.0 5.0 5.2
Malaysia (1.2) 4.0 3.9 4.6
Philippines 0.9 5.9 6.0 6.5
Australia (3.9) 7.1 (0.2) 2.6
Hong Kong (1.8) 3.9 (2.3) 2.5
Singapore (3.9) 1.0 (0.8) 2.6
Source: J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg.

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Currencies Figure 7: Change in 10Y Bond yield (%)

The IDR, INR and THB are the weakest currencies in Indonesia
Asia ex. Japan. Against the US Dollar, the IDR Japan
depreciated by almost 15% from 2019 average. The IDR Euro Area
and THB dropped by 8% and 6% respectively from its
Korea
2019 average. Only TWD, PHP, and HKD increased in Current vs. 2019 Avg
value against USD compared to 2019 average. Malaysia
Current vs. YTD Low
Taiwan
J.P. Morgan forecasts the IDR and INR to recover India
towards the end of 2020 with IDR to appreciate 4% and
Australia
INR to rise by 1.7%. In contrast, THB and PHP are
forecasted to drop by 1.2% and 1.3% respectively. Thailand

China
Most other currencies are forecasted to climb back by Singapore
0.3% to 1.2% during the rest of 2020.
HK

Philippines
FX Reserves
China had the largest decrease in FX reserves YTD. With U.S.
US$47bn decrease, followed by South Korea (-$8.6bn) -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
and Hong Kong (-$3.8bn). Singapore, Philippines, and Source: Bloomberg Data. , 8 April 2020. Note: Sorted by change from 2019 average.
Malaysia saw a slight drop in reserves while most other
countries have accumulated their FX reserves during the Figure 8: Change in exchange rate vs. USD (%)
first few months of 2020.
TWD

Figure 6: ASEAN rates change between and-Jan and mid-March PHP

JPM 4Q20 Forecast vs. Current
HKD Current vs. 2019 Avg
JPY

CNY

EUR

SGD

KRW

MYR

THB

INR
Source: National sources. IDR

-20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0

Source: Bloomberg data, 8 April 2020. Note: Sorted by change from 2019 average.

Table 8: Change in FX Reserves

$ billion Dec 19 Current Change
China 3108 3061 -47.3
South Korea 409 400 -8.6
Hong Kong 441 438 -3.8
Singapore 279 279 -0.3
Philippines 88 88 -0.2
Malaysia 99 99 -0.2
Indonesia 129 130 1.2
Taiwan 478 480 2.3
Thailand 213 217 3.7
India 425 440 14.7
Japan 1255 1296 40.8
Source: Bloomberg data, 8 April 2020.

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Figure 9: Indonesia government expand social protection budget

Consumer behavior shift
(For more details, please refer to ASEAN Consumer
Research Note by J.P. Morgan Consumer and TMT
Research team)

Government containment measures against Covid-19

have led to closure or limited operations of commercial
establishments such as shopping malls, restaurants, and
non-essential outlets/stores. We think the human
psychology of fear and the interim stay-at-home Source: Indonesia Ministry of Finance.
economy will alter consumption attitudes in the
meantime. Our analysis suggest two major trends: Figure 10: Healthy growth in # of stores on Shopee Mall with
highest growth coming from Indonesia
1) Categories winners and losers: Consumer categories
that are relatively defensive against the economic
disruption consist mainly of staples and health-related
categories such as food including prepared food & fresh
food (INDF IJ, ICBP IJ, URC PM, TU TB), food
retailers (PGOLD PM, BJC TB), and medical supplies
(TOPG MK, HART MK). This dynamic is also
supported by a wave of unprecedented fiscal stimulus to Source: Company website.
preserve employment and basic consumption. On the
other hand, categories that should see decreased demand Figure 11: Number of stores in Shopee Mall vs LazMall - as of 27
are apparel & footwear (LPPF IJ, MAPI IJ), alcohol March 2020
beverages (FB PM, THBEV SP), and out of home dining
(JFC PM, MINT TB).

2) Accelerated shift to online channel: Extrapolating

the Shopee ASEAN store growth in the last three months
(Figure 2-4, Sea Ltd's market share growth amid offline
store closure, Mar-2020) suggests that retail sales via
online continues to trend upwards. Anecdotally, online
retail platform providers, C2C, omnni-channel Source: Company website.
companies, and food delivery firms are seeing a demand
boost for their services. The rapid increase in online Figure 12: Fastest growing category on ShopeeMall across the
adoption supports our positive view on SE US. region: increase in stores from 31 Dec-19 to 27 Mar-20

Will the change persist in ASEAN? Inferring from

China’s SARS experience, categories that saw demand
boost saw normalization post the outbreak while there
was compensatory/pent-up demand seen across the
discretionary categories. A structural change in China
post SARS in 2003 was the rapid growth of online
channels. For ASEAN, we believe lasting changes, i.e.
online adoption, higher health consciousness will be
Source: Company website.
shaped by culture, potential regulatory changes, e-
commerce supply chain infra improvement, recurrence of
an infectious disease outbreak and/or a prolonged global
containment of Covid-19. We also believe that a second
order impact on consumption, i.e. deep job losses could
reinforce or re-shape consumer behavior.

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Singapore
Investment thesis Figure 13: MSCI Singapore with bull, base and bear case line
Escalation of COVID-19 infections, fears of deep global 480 MSCI Singapore Base Bull Bear
recession and liquidity shortage resulted in a broad-based 430
sell-off across global equity markets, including
Singapore. But MSCI Singapore is outperforming 380
ASEAN by 3% year to date. We believe Singapore is
330
better prepared in tackling the virus compared to
previous outbreaks (SARS and HIN1). Singapore has 280
applied rigorous preventive measures to combat the
230
Covid-19 outbreak and has been praised by WHO for its
effective containment. Government announced the third 180
stimulus package (April 6) in two months amounting to 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
S$5.1 billion (US$3.6 billion), taking the nation’s total Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, 8 April 2020. Note: Chart show MSCI Singapore local
fiscal support to S$60 billion (12% of GDP). Given the currency index

openness of Singapore’s sector to regional travel and

tourism, the contraction should not be a surprise. Figure 14: Forward P/E
18.0
Considering Singapore’s containment measures only
began to ratchet up more materially during March and 16.0
could well extend through part of 2Q20, the services and
related sectors could see more weakness until the 14.0
measures are relaxed. In the near term, Singapore
equities will benefit from a reduction in risk premium, it 12.0
might be the first to see infections peak in early April
10.0
within ASEAN region. Singapore is currently trading at a
12 month forward dividend yield of 5.5%. This is the
8.0
highest amongst all APxJ countries. We believe such a 12m fwd PE Average +1Sd -1Sd
high dividend yield limits the downside. Singapore is the 6.0
only developed market amongst ASEAN countries. We Apr 05 Oct 07 Apr 10 Oct 12 Apr 15 Oct 17 Apr 20
would recommend focusing on adding positions in Source: MSCI, IBES, Datastream.
companies with strong balance sheets and strong
earnings growth profiles. Our preferred sectors are Figure 15: Annual EPS growth trend
telecom, food service sector and selective REITs. 35.0
30.3
30.0 26.8
25.0
Bull case
20.0
 Stabilization in virus infection globally by end April 15.0 11.8
and shallower DM recession 10.0
9.3
6.9
8.9 8.2
9.6

2.4
 Surge in property demand which leads to positive 5.0
0.0
earnings for developers, and feeds through by a (5.0) (2.3) (2.1)
wealth effect to domestic demand (10.0)
(4.4)
(7.4)
(9.0)
(10.3)
 Lower than expected asset quality concerns and (15.0)
06
(12.7)
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
modest declines in margins
Source: IBES, DataStream; J.P. Morgan. Note, 2020-21 is consensus forecast
Bear case
 Long tail of COVID-19 or resurgence. Table 9: JPM vs consensus EPS growth forecasts
Singapore Weight J.P. Morgan Consensus
 Tighter or more volatile global financial conditions (%) 2020 2021 2020 2021
Total Market 100 (20.3) 9.7 (7.4) 11.8
could lead to stress on leveraged firms and Consumer Discretionary 3.2 (13.8) 20.3 (25.2) 34.6
households Consumer Staples 3.2 (5.8) 12.6 1.4 8.7
Financials 48.1 (36.0) 5.7 (15.2) 9.7
 A large and disorderly property price correction and Industrials 12.6 (7.4) 16.4 0.4 27.8
Information Technology 1.9 0.6 8.4 (0.5) 7.4
feeds through adverse wealth effects on households Real Estate 18.8 (1.1) 13.2 13.5 7.7
Communication Services 12.2 (1.4) 10.4 17.4 7.5
 Higher slippages and credit cost Source: MSCI, IBES, Datastream, J.P. Morgan

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Indonesia
Investment Thesis Figure 16: MSCI Indonesia with bull, base and bear case line
YTD, JCI fell 27% with Rupiah weakening 17% at now 8500 MSCI Indonesia Base Bull Bear

IDR16250. JCI fell 30% throughout March to a low of 7500

IDR3930, before rebounding sharply +18% from March 6500
24 lows to date. We expect market to remain volatile in
5500
the near-medium term and advise investors to stay
selective. Indonesia government announced on March 31, 4500

that it will lift the 3% deficit cap for 3yrs (2020-2022) to 3500
provide social assistance and other support as the country 2500
battles the COVID-19 pandemic. We believe this is a 1500
positive development taken by the Government to allow 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
for much bigger stimulus and social assistance to the Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. 8 April 2020. Note: Chart show MSCI Indonesia local
consumer/business impacted by COVID-19. However, it currency index
should be stressed that these are unprecedented times and
in as much as these pressures are short term, there is no Figure 17: Forward P/E
reason to think that these measures will be extended 18.0

beyond the crisis. Progress on reforms will be slower 16.0

than expected but some progress is better than no
progress at all. Note, the recent plunge in oil price is also 14.0

creating new risk for Indonesia on lower commodity 12.0

price trends, which is a big part of the country’s export
revenue (coal, CPO). While lower oil prices are positive 10.0

for the trade balance, given Indonesia is a net importer of 8.0

oil, it will be bad for fiscal revenue from a commodity
export angle. We continue to prefer BBCA, Consumer 6.0
12m fwd PE Average +1Sd -1Sd
Staples, TMT, and selected USD-earners (UNTR), while 4.0
remain cautious on retailers, infrastructure, property, and Apr 05 Oct 07 Apr 10 Oct 12 Apr 15 Oct 17 Apr 20
companies with high USD debt gearing Source: MSCI, IBES, Datastream.

Bull case Figure 18: Annual EPS growth trend

70.0
 Stabilization in virus infection globally by end April 61.4
60.0
and shallower DM recession
50.0
 Faster than expected parliament approval of Omnibus 40.0
Bill into law, followed by immediate execution. 30.0
19.1
22.2 19.8
20.0 13.7 15.8
10.6 11.7
 Rupiah stabilizing at BI base/bull case or 10.0 4.7 3.4
8.2
3.7
9.7
4.7
IDR14,000/USD level 0.0
(0.7)
 Return of foreign portfolio flow, driven by global (10.0)
(8.5)
quantitative easing and peaking of COVID-19 (20.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
outbreak.
Source: IBES, DataStream; J.P. Morgan. Note, 2020-21 is consensus forecast
Bear case
 Long tail of COVID-19 or resurgence. Table 10: JPM vs consensus EPS growth forecasts
Indonesia Weight J.P. Morgan Consensus
 Worse than expected GDP growth or recession and (%) 2020 2021 2020 2021
Total Market 100 (11.0) 20.2 3.2 11.7
weakening of rupiah to BI bear case Consumer Discretionary 7.4 9.0 7.2 (0.0) 9.5
Consumer Staples 15.1 0.9 11.1 0.5 9.7
 Uptick in banking sector NPL and tightening Energy 4.3 (14.5) 0.2 (13.0) 4.3
Financials 47.9 (24.1) 33.7 7.0 13.8
liquidity Health Care 2.1 3.6 9.1 3.6 9.1
Industrials 0.5 (43.0) 70.6 (10.4) 18.2
 Higher inflation, limited policy flexibility and Materials 7.1 (2.5) 32.1 (12.8) 20.0
seeking IMF rescue package Real Estate 0.9 1.5 (0.9) (22.2) 7.6
Communication Services 14.0 10.4 17.0 9.5 10.0
Utilities 0.7 (83.8) (1.2) 117.5 19.2
Source: MSCI, IBES, Datastream, J.P. Morgan

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The Philippines
Investment Thesis Figure 19: MSCI Philippines with bull, base and bear case line
We think the Philippines faces an imminent recession 1700 MSCI Philippines Base Bull Bear
risk given that all GDP components are adversely 1500
affected, and considering the Philippines infection curve
1300
is still at its early stage. Recall that the 1991/1998
recession was due to weak investments and gov't 1100
spending whereas current crisis is expected to see a 900
slowdown in household consumption (~65% of GDP).
700
Note, Philippines was the first ASEAN nation to
implement a stringent “quarantine” policy in mid-March 500
and this was subsequently extended by two more weeks 300
until end of April amid low testing capacity. This was 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
accompanied by BSP’s aggressive monetary policy Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. 8 April 2020. Note: Chart show MSCI Philippines local
support and fiscal stimulus package amounting to currency index
Php278bn. Philippines equities lost close to 29% YTD,
post 19% rebound from March lows. Market PE is at Figure 20: Forward P/E
10.9x, still >15% away from the GFC trough. However, 22.0

street EPS revision is lagging with a mere 2% cut over 20.0

the last one month. The market is grappling with the 18.0
downside risk to EPS which is dependent on the depth 16.0
and duration of the economic slowdown. This, in turn, is
14.0
a function of the country's ability to contain the virus and
mitigate its adverse economic impact. On average, our 12.0
universe has an average of 20% EPS downside. We think 10.0
there is still downside considering we didn't assume
8.0
supply chain disruption and/or a full blown asset quality 12m fwd PE Average +1Sd -1Sd

cycle. We advocate investors with longer investment 6.0

Apr 05 Oct 07 Apr 10 Oct 12 Apr 15 Oct 17 Apr 20
horizons to use the situation to rotate to heavy index Source: MSCI, IBES, Datastream.
weighted names with superior management quality,
strong structural growth drivers, and robust balance Figure 21: Annual EPS growth trend
sheet. 60.0
48.5
50.0
Bull case
40.0
 Sharp deceleration/decline of COVID-19 cases
30.0 21.8
globally and shallower DM recession
20.0 14.7 14.6
 Short and effective community quarantine limiting 8.3 9.1 8.7 7.7
12.7
10.0 3.8 5.9 8.3 3.7 4.0 3.4
the economic impact.
 Rapid resolution of water utilities’ contracts and 0.0
other contracts under review. (10.0)
 Quick recovery of the economy back to its above- (20.0) (13.2)
trend GDP growth 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Source: IBES, DataStream; J.P. Morgan. Note, 2020-21 is consensus forecast
Bear case
 Sharp acceleration of COVID-19 cases, leading to Table 11: JPM vs consensus EPS growth forecasts
prolonged community quarantine. Philippines Weight J.P. Morgan Consensus
 Termination of water utilities concession (%) 2020 2021 2020 2021
agreements; review of contracts across different Total Market 100 (1.6) 15.0 3.4 12.7
regulated industries; ABS-CBN franchise Consumer Discretionary 2.2 (6.5) 24.5 (13.2) 27.9
Consumer Staples 4.5 12.6 14.2 5.7 15.3
termination. Financials 19.3 (26.2) 42.6 (1.3) 15.3
 Sharp decline on OFW remittances due to global Industrials 33.3 9.4 14.8 5.9 14.2
effects of COVID-19. Real Estate 28.0 8.0 8.7 6.5 15.2
 Prolonged economic recession Communication Services 8.1 12.2 (18.7) 1.2 (5.9)
Utilities 4.5 8.7 4.3 6.4 6.0
Source: MSCI, IBES, Datastream, J.P. Morgan

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Thailand
Investment thesis Figure 22: MSCI Thailand with bull, base and bear case line
SET tumbled by 24% YTD, MSCI Thailand lost 30% 700 MSCI Thailand Base Bull Bear

(US$ terms) YTD, fueled by the escalation of COVID-19 600

globally. Thai baht depreciated by 7% against the USD
500
this year. We maintain our UW view on Thailand as the
COVID-19 situation has escalated and governments start 400
to apply stringent measures (lockdown, travel restrictions, 300
social distancing) to curb infection, severely slowing
down economic activities. J.P. Morgan economists 200

expect Thailand’s full-year GDP to decline by 3.3%y/y 100

in 2020, down from the original forecast of 2.8%, and 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
have penciled in one more BoT cut in 2Q20. While the Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. 8 April 2020. Note: Chart show MSCI Thailand local
currency index
market could get some support near term from a large
stimulus package, lower oil price, and higher probability
Figure 23: Forward P/E
of infections peak by mid-April. But investors’ anxiety 18.0
over the spread of COVID-19 to other countries and the
disrupted economic activities, especially in services 16.0

sector and manufacturing supply chain, would continue 14.0

to weigh on market upside. Furthermore, the concerns of 12.0
record drought in 2020, global recession and political
risks make Thailand less attractive than other 10.0

EM/ASEAN markets in the post-epidemic recovery 8.0

phase. Market valuation is not plain cheap yet, with
6.0
MSCI Thailand’s 12-month forward P/E is above 15 year 12m fwd PE Average +1Sd -1Sd
average. 4.0
Apr 05 Oct 07 Apr 10 Oct 12 Apr 15 Oct 17 Apr 20

Source: MSCI, IBES, Datastream.

Bull case
 Halt of virus spread and transition to quick recovery Figure 24: Annual EPS growth trend
phase. 40.0 35.1
28.5
30.0
14.6 14.1 16.3 16.9 15.3
20.0
 Less severe drought condition 6.4
11.7
10.0
0.0
 Acceleration in bidding for infrastructure projects (10.0) (1.1) (2.7) (5.5)
(7.1)
and fast-track award for EEC projects without (20.0) (14.4)
further delays in execution timeline. (30.0)
(40.0)
(37.3)
(38.6)
(50.0)
 Improvement in domestic demand and pickup in 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
exports and tourism. Source: IBES, DataStream; J.P. Morgan. Note, 2020-21 is consensus forecast

 Massive FDI flows due to supply chain shift. Table 12: JPM vs consensus EPS growth forecasts
Thailand Weight J.P. Morgan Consensus
Bear case (%) 2020 2021 2020 2021
 Continued virus spread within Thailand that Total Market 100 (12.8) 16.9 (5.5) 15.3
Consumer Discretionary 4.7 (9.5) 6.3 (35.9) 33.3
prolongs disruption of economic activities. Consumer Staples 16.7 21.0 11.2 15.8 10.2
Energy 15.4 (25.0) 25.2 (10.4) 17.4
 Deeper recession in Developed markets Financials 10.8 (20.6) 9.4 (12.1) 14.1
Health Care 6.8 (42.9) 45.0 6.0 12.9
Industrials 9.8 (28.6) 35.7 (20.2) 33.6
 Continued delay in implementation/execution of Materials 10.5 11.6 17.8 11.3 21.6
government investments to weigh on GDP growth. Real Estate 4.3 (32.4) 36.3 (12.8) 13.7
Communication Services 11.9 (2.8) 6.6 (4.9) 2.2
Utilities 9.2 (0.9) 16.6 7.9 10.6
 Delay in growth recovery as a result of the droughts.
Source: MSCI, IBES, Datastream, J.P. Morgan

 Rising political risk

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Malaysia
Investment thesis Figure 25: MSCI Malaysia with bull, base and bear case line
The KLCI is 15% lower YTD amid the global COVID- 700 MSCI Malaysia Base Bull Bear
19 crisis and 23% lower from peak in February 2019. 650
Though Malaysia is a consensus UW market, downside 600
risk remains, given heavy reliance on trade amid a global 550
recession, lower oil, and near-term impact from COVID- 500
19. Investors are assessing impact on earnings, cash
450
flows, and corporate balance sheet. In a demand shock
situation, fiscal policy is the most appropriate tool in our 400

view. The Second Stimulus package announced on 27 350

March was larger than expected; without too much of 300
fiscal strain (1.7% of GDP are direct fiscal transfers), 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
providing a support to consumption/employment, as well Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. 8 April 2020. Note: Chart show MSCI Thailand local
currency index
as liquidity to businesses. Additional M$10B SME
stimulus measures works out to 0.6% of GDP of direct
Figure 26: Forward P/E
fiscal transfers. Best exposure via Public Bank and Hong 18.0
Leong. Nevertheless, lingering global growth concerns
remain, with reversal of negative sentiment likely 16.0
premised on global peak of COVID-19. Our
recommended positioning is in defensives (utilities, 14.0
healthcare) and dividend yielders (REITs), and stocks
with bottom up growth certainty. 12.0

Bull Case 10.0

 Oil above US$60/bbl providing more fiscal 12m fwd PE Average +1Sd -1Sd
headroom. 8.0
Apr 05 Oct 07 Apr 10 Oct 12 Apr 15 Oct 17 Apr 20
Source: MSCI, IBES, Datastream.
 Quicker than expected resolution to COVID-19 and
shallower DM recession
Figure 27: Annual EPS growth trend
50.0 44.3
 Sharp rise in private investment levels on major
40.0
improvements in business sentiment.
30.0 26.4
21.7
15.6
 Award of large-scale infrastructure spending and 20.0
9.7
7.8
accelerated implementation. 10.0
1.0 0.5 0.5
0.0
Bear Case (10.0) (5.2)
(1.2) (1.3) (1.0)
 Long tail of COVID-19 or resurgence. (20.0) (13.2) (10.4)
(19.9)
(30.0)
 Oil stays lower between $30-40/bbl. 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Source: IBES, DataStream; J.P. Morgan. Note, 2020-21 is consensus forecast
 Protracted COVID-19 outbreak and economic
activity disruption. Table 13: JPM vs consensus EPS growth forecasts
Malaysia Weight J.P. Morgan Consensus
 Major sell-off in bonds by foreigners, leading to (%) 2020 2021 2020 2021
major drop in MYR. Total Market 100 (11.8) 7.4 (1.0) 9.7
Consumer Discretionary 3.7 (11.0) 9.7 (34.3) 36.1
Consumer Staples 15.8 20.0 13.8 23.6 12.0
 Deeper DM recession weighs on Malaysia exports. Energy 4.5 7.9 9.3 3.9 9.0
Financials 31.0 (25.5) 5.5 (3.5) 5.0
Health Care 8.1 29.8 18.3 26.2 13.3
Industrials 9.7 (1.0) 17.7 (5.8) 27.2
Materials 4.1 (24.7) 15.9 (0.7) 20.4
Communication Services 9.9 2.6 1.7 0.9 5.9
Utilities 13.3 0.7 0.7 13.1 3.1
Source: MSCI, IBES, Datastream, J.P. Morgan

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Vietnam
Investment thesis Figure 28: VN-Index with bull, base and bear case line
The COVID-19 sent a shockwave to global markets, 1400 VN-Index Base Bull Bear
sending VN-Index & MSCI Vietnam down by 23%
1200
YTD. On relative terms, Vietnam equities outperformed
MSCI ASEAN (-30% YTD) and MSCI Frontier Markets 1000
(-31% YTD) during this sell off. This prompted
800
governments around world to apply aggressive measures
to restrain the virus spread. This shock would push global 600
economy into a recession. Vietnam 1Q20 GDP growth is
3.8% y/y - lowest since the GFC. Despite the gloomy 400
prospects, we are seeing some silver linings from 200
Vietnam with signs of support in the near term: (1) 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Aggressive measures helped to contain virus spread: Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. 8 April 2020.
Vietnam have a lowest number of confirmed cases
among ASEAN-6 countries despite having number of Figure 29: Forward P/E – MSCI Vietnam
tests; (2) Rate cuts (100bps) and fiscal support including 30.0
a VND 80Tn (1.2% GDP) in tax breaks, payroll support
in the short term and acceleration of public investment 25.0
(VND 460Tn – 7.8% GDP) in the medium term; and (3)
early recovery of China and Korea will benefit Vietnam. 20.0
Market valuation is at a discount compared to the 2008
GFC. We stay OW Vietnam within ASEAN, 15.0
positioning for the transition to recovery phase. We
prefer banks, IT, consumer staples, and utilities from 10.0

top down perspective.

5.0
12m fwd PE Avg +1Sd -1Sd
Bull Case
0.0
 Swift recovery of global economies, especially China, Nov 08 Jun 10 Jan 12 Jul 13 Feb 15 Sep 16 Apr 18 Nov 19
Korea (early 2Q20) and US (early 3Q20), significant Source: MSCI, IBES, Datastream.
fiscal stimulus and public investment
 Implementation of key reforms in: liberalization of
foreign investment limits, infrastructure investment,
and SOEs privatization.
 Equity market included in MSCI's watch list for
reclassification to EM.
 Low inflation environment, stable exchange rate.
Bear Case
 Domestic virus outbreak on large scale, prolonged
recovery of global economies (later than 4Q20)
 Key reforms and fiscal investments are delayed.
 Higher inflation rate than government target (<4%).
 Significant fund outflows from frontier and emerging
markets, credit downgrade

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Table 14: ASEAN Top Picks

Price Code JPM Mkt cap P/E(x) EPS Div.Yld ROE
Rating (US$B) 20E 21E 20E 21E 20E 20E
Indonesia
Bank Central Asia (BCA) 28175 BBCA IJ OW 43 28.0 23.0 1007 1226 1.6 13.9
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk 3110 TLKM IJ OW 19 13.3 11.5 234 271 5.3 24.8
Unilever Indonesia Tbk 7125 UNVR IJ N 17 34.9 33.3 204 214 2.6 137.5
Indofood CBP 9600 ICBP IJ OW 7 20.7 19.1 463 503 2.3 20.9
Indofood 6250 INDF IJ OW 3 10.4 9.2 601 678 4.3 14.0
Singapore
Singapore Telecom 2.61 ST SP N 30 37.6 17.0 0.07 0.15 6.7 8.6
Sea Ltd 45.2 SE US OW 21 NM NM NM NM 0.0 -82.3
Singapore Exchange 9.79 SGX SP OW 7 24.4 21.1 0.40 0.47 3.1 37.7
Ascendas REIT 2.77 AREIT SP OW 7 18.1 18.1 0.15 0.15 5.5 7.1
Keppel DC REIT 2.43 KDCREIT SP OW 3 27.2 24.1 0.09 0.10 3.5 7.8
Philippines
SM Prime Holdings 29.2 SMPH PM OW 17 19.6 17.9 1.49 1.63 1.6 13.5
Universal Robina Corp 122 URC PM N 5 24.5 21.5 4.97 5.68 2.6 12.4
Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) 57.1 BPI PM OW 5 13.1 8.5 4.36 6.70 3.2 7.3
PLDT Inc 1100 TEL PM OW 5 9.0 10.5 122 105 6.6 22.7
Thailand
Advanced Info Services 188 ADVANC TB OW 17 18.0 16.0 10.4 11.7 3.9 41.8
Central Pattana 43.8 CPN TB OW 6 37.4 18.4 1.17 2.37 1.3 7.3
Thai Union Group PCL 13.0 TU TB OW 2 10.4 9.6 1.25 1.36 5.7 12.0
Srisawad Corporation PCL 45.3 SAWAD TB OW 2 13.4 11.5 3.37 3.94 4.5 22.8
Malaysia
Public Bank 15.8 PBK MK OW 14 15.2 14.7 1.04 1.07 4.6 9.1
MISC Berhad 7.59 MISC MK OW 8 17.3 16.7 0.44 0.45 4.2 5.4
Dialog Group Bhd 3.09 DLG MK OW 4 29.6 26.1 0.10 0.12 1.4 14.9
Top Glove Corporation 6.42 TOPG MK OW 4 28.1 23.5 0.23 0.27 1.8 22.8
KLCCP Stapled Group 7.80 KLCCSS MK OW 3 9.5 12.6 0.82 0.62 5.0 5.5
Source: J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg. Note, updated as of 8 April 2020.

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Correction: Column headings revised in Tables 6 & 7.

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J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of April 04, 2020

Overweight Neutral Underweight
(buy) (hold) (sell)
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage 46% 40% 14%
IB clients* 52% 49% 37%
JPMS Equity Research Coverage 44% 42% 14%
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"Other Disclosures" last revised April 04, 2020.

Copyright 2020 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or
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