Puma R To L 2020 Master 3 Publish

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Inputs

Actual Actual Actual


Actual Date 12/31/2019 12/31/2018 12/31/2017
Question Date 12/31/2019 12/31/2018 12/31/2017
Tax Rate
Interest receivable rate
Interest payable rate
Actual Actual Actual
12/31/2016 12/31/2015 12/31/2014
12/31/2016 12/31/2015 12/31/2014
Puma SE - Consolidated Group Income Statement for the 52 weeks ending:
Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Totals Puma stats p181 on (2019)
12/31/2019 12/31/2018 12/31/2017 12/31/2016 12/31/2015
EUR m EUR m EUR m EUR m EUR m EUR m
Revenue 5,502.20 4,648.30 4,135.90 3,626.70 3,387.40 21,300.50
Cost of sales (2,815.80) (2,399.00) (2,181.50) (1,970.30) (1,847.20) (11,213.80)
Gross profit 2,686.40 2,249.30 1,954.40 1,656.40 1,540.20 10,086.70 Calc
Net operating expenses (2,271.30) (1,928.40) (1,725.60) (1,544.50) (1,460.50) (8,930.30)
Operating profit before exceptionals 415.10 320.90 228.80 111.90 79.70 1,156.40 Calc
Exceptional items 0.00
Operating profit 415.10 320.90 228.80 111.90 79.70 1,156.40 Calc
Financing Income 10.30 10.50 11.20 32.00
Financing Expenses (22.60) (24.00) (25.30) (20.40) (23.40) (115.70)
Profit before Other 392.50 296.90 213.80 102.00 67.50 1,072.70 Calc
Other 25.10 16.30 17.40 16.90 17.50 93.20
Profit before tax 417.60 313.20 231.20 118.90 85.00 1,165.90 Calc
Taxation (108.60) (83.60) (63.30) (30.50) (23.30) (309.30)
Profit for the year (Earnings, profit after Tax, PAT) 309.00 229.60 167.90 88.40 61.70 856.60 Calc

Depreciation & Amortisation 248.50 82.50 72.10 60.50 41.10 504.70


Average number of employees 13,348.00 12,192.00 11,389.00 11,128.00 10,988.00 Note 5 to accounts
Aggregate employee costs 634.50 553.80 549.10 493.10 483.80
Number of outlets (y/e) 2015 ESTIMATE 853.00 766.00 703.00 664.00 625.00 2016 - 2019 ex Co presos, website & Bloomberg

Operating Activity Measures: Formula


Business progression:
Sales Change % 18.37% 12.39% 14.04% 7.06% (current year / previous year) - 1 %
COS change % 17.37% 9.97% 10.72% 6.66%
Operating expenses change % 17.78% 11.75% 11.73% 5.75%
GP change % 19.43% 15.09% 17.99% 7.54%
Op P change % 29.35% 40.25% 104.47% 40.40%
PAT / Earnings change % 34.58% 36.75% 89.93% 43.27%
Simple tax rate 26.01% 26.69% 27.38% 25.65% 27.41% -Tax Charge / PBT

Scale:
EBIT post exceptionals EURm 440.20 337.20 246.20 128.80 97.20 Earnings + Interest, Tax
EBITDA post exceptionals EURm 688.70 419.70 318.30 189.30 138.30 Earnings + Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortisation

Profitability:
GP margin % (pre-exceptionals) 48.82% 48.39% 47.25% 45.67% 45.47% GP / Revenue %
Op P margin % post exceptionals 7.54% 6.90% 5.53% 3.09% 2.35% Op P / Revenue %
EBIT margin % 8.00% 7.25% 5.95% 3.55% 2.87% EBIT / Revenue %
Net profit margin % 5.62% 4.94% 4.06% 2.44% 1.82% PAT / Revenue %

Return, Efficiency - Quick


Capital Employed (Balance Sheet) 2,819.40 2,011.90 1,797.30 1,870.20 1,740.30 See Balance Sheet
Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) 15.61% 16.76% 13.70% 6.89% 5.59% EBIT / Capital Employed
Equity 1,920.40 1,722.10 1,656.60 1,722.20 1,619.40 See Balance Sheet
Return on Equity (ROE) 16.09% 13.33% 10.14% 5.13% 3.81% PAT / Equity

Pyramid of Ratios
GP% of sales 48.82% 48.39% 47.25% 45.67% 45.47% GP / Revenue %
Minus OpExp % of sales inc exceptionals and other income -40.82% -41.14% -41.30% -42.12% -42.60% (OpEx + Exceptionals + Other income or expense)/ Revenue %
EBIT margin % post exceptionals 8.00% 7.25% 5.95% 3.55% 2.87% Check to Op P / Revenue % above

Sales per Store EURm 6.45 6.07 5.88 5.46 5.42 Revenue / no of stores
Stores per EURm Capital Employed 0.3025 0.3807 0.3911 0.3550 0.3591 No of stores / Cap Emp
Asset Turnover (Asset Utilisation) 195.15% 231.04% 230.12% 193.92% 194.64% (Revenue / No of Stores) x (No of Stores / Cap Emp)

Asset Turnover ratio (AT) based on Capital Employed 195.15% 231.04% 230.12% 193.92% 194.64% Revenue / Capital Employed
EBIT % 8.00% 7.25% 5.95% 3.55% 2.87% EBIT / Revenue % as above
EBIT x AT = ROCE 15.61% 16.76% 13.70% 6.89% 5.59% (EBIT / Revenue) x (Revenue / Cap Emp) %
Check OK / ERROR OK OK OK OK OK

Employee statistics
Sales per employee EURk 412.21 381.26 363.15 325.91 308.28 Revenue / No employees
Change % 8.12% 4.99% 11.43% 5.72%
Employment cost per employee EURk 47.54 45.42 48.21 44.31 44.03 Aggregate employer costs / no of employees
Change % 4.65% -5.79% 8.80% 0.64%
Contribution per employee EURk 364.68 335.83 314.94 281.60 264.25 Sales per employee - employment cost per employee

Investing Activities

Financing Activities
Finance charges : EBITDA 3.28% 5.72% 4.71% 5.23% 8.82% Net finance charge / EBITDA

Market Measures
No of Shares 149,520,000 14,947,000 14,940,000 14,940,000 14,940,000
Share price EUR 68.35 413.00 363.00 248.20 198.60

Earnings per share EPS EUR 2.07 15.36 11.24 5.92 4.13 Earnings / number of shares
P/E Ratio 33.07 26.89 32.30 41.95 48.09 Price per share / earnings per share

Economic Profit:
Entity EP
Profit before interest (EBIT) 440.20 337.20 246.20 128.80
Less tax at headline rate -114.48 -90.01 -67.41 -33.04
Profit before interest & after tax (NOPAT) 325.72 247.19 178.79 95.76

Total Capital = Equity + Net Debt PRIOR YEAR 2,392.00 1,894.40 1,889.20 1,915.60 Inclusive of IFRS16 Adj
Capital Charge % post tax 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50%
Capital charge value 131.56 104.19 103.91 105.36

Entity economic profit £m 194.16 143.00 74.89 -9.60

Equity EP
Profit after interest & after tax 309.00 229.60 167.90 88.40 Earnings

Total Capital = Equity PRIOR YEAR 1,722.10 1,656.60 1,722.20 1,619.40


Equity Capital Charge % 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
Capital charge value 103.33 99.40 103.33 97.16

Equity economic profit £m 205.67 130.20 64.57 -8.76


Puma SE - Consolidated Balance Sheet as at:

Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual


12/31/2019 12/31/2018 12/31/2017 12/31/2016 12/31/2015
EUR m EUR m EUR m EUR m EUR m
Non-current assets
Intangibles 454.60 437.50 412.90 423.10 403.30
Property, plant and equipment 1,113.80 294.60 260.10 252.10 232.60
Other assets 328.60 282.20 296.00 324.50 299.60
Non-current assets 1,897.00 1,014.30 969.00 999.70 935.50 Calc

Current assets
Inventories 1,110.20 915.10 778.50 718.90 657.00
Trade and other receivables 611.70 553.70 503.70 499.20 483.10
Other current assets 164.70 149.10 120.90 106.50 129.10
Cash and short term investments 518.10 463.70 415.00 326.70 338.80
Other investments 76.60 111.20 66.70 114.10 76.80
2,481.30 2,192.80 1,884.80 1,765.40 1,684.80

Total Assets 4,378.30 3,207.10 2,853.80 2,765.10 2,620.30

Current liabilities
Trade payables (843.70) (705.30) (646.10) (580.60) (519.70)
Interest bearing loans and borrowings (215.50) (77.70) (123.90) (95.30) (129.90)
Current Tax (88.90) (68.00) (54.70) (41.40) (49.70)
Other current liabilities (410.80) (344.20) (231.80) (177.60) (180.70)
(1,558.90) (1,195.20) (1,056.50) (894.90) (880.00) Calc
Net Current assets / liabilities 922.40 997.60 828.30 870.50 804.80 Calc

Non-current liabilities
Interest bearing loans and borrowings (764.30) (180.70) (31.00) (16.20) (7.20)
Other payables (4.40) (6.20) (7.80) (7.30) (2.20)
Defined benefit pension scheme (34.10) (28.90) (29.70) (31.60) (23.80) 2019 T.45 Page 229 for Asset / liability split (small)
Deferred tax (53.00) (47.70) (37.60) (63.10) (64.20)
Long term provisions (43.20) (26.30) (34.60) (29.80) (23.50)
(899.00) (289.80) (140.70) (148.00) (120.90) Calc
Net assets 1,920.40 1,722.10 1,656.60 1,722.20 1,619.40 Calc

Capital and reserves


Share capital 150.80 38.60 38.60 38.60 38.60
Capital Reserve 83.00 193.60 50.70 203.20 162.50
Treasury stock (28.10) (28.90) (30.00) (31.40) (31.40)
Non-controlling interest 46.70 18.90 31.20 15.30 8.00

(Accumulated Loss) / retained earnings 1,668.00 1,499.90 1,566.10 1,496.50 1,441.70


Equity 1,920.40 1,722.10 1,656.60 1,722.20 1,619.40

Check difference 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Memo: Other balance sheet items


Non-Cancellable operating leases - ST 0.00 (142.80) (119.60) (103.40) (119.60) Excludes future licensing obligations
Non-Cancellable operating leases - LT 0.00 (732.40) (378.30) (278.80) (378.30) See Pu,a T.74 Notde 29
Total (875.20) (497.90) (382.20) (497.90)

'Pure' Trade receivables (notes) 611.70 553.70 483.10 449.20 483.10


'Pure' Trade payables (notes) (843.70) (705.30) (519.70) (515.20) (519.70)

Key Operating Measures Formula


Working Capital 922.40 997.60 828.30 870.50 804.80 Current Assets - Current Liabilities
Capital Employed 2,819.40 2,011.90 1,797.30 1,870.20 1,740.30 Working Capital + Fixed Assets = Total Assets - Current Liabilities

Working Capital
As is:
Liquidity / Current Ratio 159.17% 183.47% 178.40% 197.27% 191.45% Current assets / current liabilities
Quick / Acid Test Ratio 87.95% 106.90% 104.71% 116.94% 116.80% Current assets - inventory / current liabilities

With operating leases on balance sheet:


Liquidity / Current Ratio 159.17% 163.89% 160.26% 176.84% 168.55%
Quick / Acid Test Ratio 87.95% 95.49% 94.07% 104.83% 102.82%

Inventory days (DIO) 143.91 139.23 130.26 133.18 129.82 Inventory / COS x 365
Trade receivables days (DSO) 40.58 43.48 42.63 45.21 52.06 Trade receivables / Revenue x 365
Trade payables days (DPO) 109.37 107.31 86.95 95.44 102.69 Trade payables / COS x 365

Cash conversion cycle (CCC) days 75.12 75.40 85.94 82.94 79.19 DIO + DSO - DPO

Investing Activities

Key Financial Measures


As is:
Equity 1,920.40 1,722.10 1,656.60 1,722.20 1,619.40 Equity line from balance sheet
Net Debt / (Cash) 461.70 (205.30) (260.10) (215.20) (201.70) Non-current debt + current debt - cash
Cash from operations (cash flow) 548.80 278.10 237.90 141.60 (28.00) From Cash flow statement

Gearing / Leverage - D/E 24.04% -11.92% -15.70% -12.50% -12.46% Net Debt / Equity
Gearing / Leverage - D/(D+E) 19.38% -13.54% -18.63% -14.28% -14.23% Net Debt / (Net Debt + Equity)

Net debt : EBITDA 67.04% -48.92% -81.72% -113.68% -145.84% Net debt / EBITDA
Cash from operations : total debt 56.01% 107.62% 153.58% 127.00% -20.42% Cash from operations / total debt

With operating leases on balance sheet


Equity 1,920.40 1,722.10 1,656.60 1,722.20 1,619.40
Net Debt / (Cash) 461.70 669.90 237.80 167.00 296.20
Cash from operations (cash flow) 548.80 278.10 237.90 141.60 -28.00

Gearing / Leverage - D/E 24.04% 38.90% 14.35% 9.70% 18.29%


Gearing / Leverage - D/(D+E) 19.38% 28.01% 12.55% 8.84% 15.46%

Net debt : EBITDA 67.04% 159.61% 74.71% 88.22% 214.17%


Cash from operations : total debt 56.01% 24.53% 36.44% 28.68% -4.41%

Market Measures
No shares 149,520,000 14,947,000 14,940,000 14,940,000 14,940,000 T01, T02 YOY Comparison - share split 2017/2018
Y/E share price approx EUR 68.35 413.00 363.00 248.20 198.60
Market Capitalisation EUR'm 10,219.69 6,173.11 5,423.22 3,708.11 2,967.08
Divi EURm 70.90 242.50 24.60 26.80 49.50
Divi paid per share EUR 0.47 16.22 1.65 1.79 3.31

Enterprise Value:
Value of Net Debt EURm 461.70 (205.30) (260.10) (215.20) (201.70)
Market Capitalisation EURm 10,219.69 6,173.11 5,423.22 3,708.11 2,967.08
EV 10,681.39 5,967.81 5,163.12 3,492.91 2,765.38

EBITDA 688.70 419.70 318.30 189.30 138.30


EV: EBITDA (trailing) 15.51 14.22 16.22 18.45 20.00

Market value added:


Equity EURm 1,920.40 1,722.10 1,656.60 1,722.20 1,619.40
Market Capitalisation EURm 10,219.69 6,173.11 5,423.22 3,708.11 2,967.08
MVA EURm 8,299.29 4,451.01 3,766.62 1,985.91 1,347.68
Market : Book Ratio 532.16% 358.46% 327.37% 215.31% 183.22%

Total Shareholder Return:


Year tag 4 3 2 1 0
Market cap plus divi at end of year 10,290.59 6,415.61 5,447.82 3,734.91 3,016.58
Market cap plus all divis since year 0 10,584.49 6,467.01 5,474.62 3,734.91 3,016.58
TSR year on year 60.40% 17.76% 45.86% 23.81%
TSR compound since year 0 36.86% 28.94% 34.72% 23.81%
Puma SE - Consolidated Summary Cash Flow for the 52 weeks ending:

Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Totals Average Splits


12/31/2019 12/31/2018 12/31/2017 12/31/2016 12/31/2015
EUR m EUR m EUR m EUR m EUR m EUR m EUR m
Per Financial Statements
Profit before tax 417.60 313.40 231.20 118.90 85.00 1,166.10 233.22

Add back Depreciation / Amortisation, impairment, loss on 248.50 82.50 72.10 60.50 41.10 504.70 100.94
Deduct release of government grants 0.00 0.00
Add back share-based payment expenses 0.00 0.00
Add back Finance expense (net) 33.10 8.40 8.40 3.80 4.20 57.90 11.58
Add back Tax expense 0.00 0.00

Working Capital
(Increase) / Decrease in Inventory (188.80) (122.80) (117.20) (57.70) (92.20) (578.70) (115.74)
(Increase) / Decrease in Receivables (69.80) (61.20) (92.80) (16.80) (8.80) (249.40) (49.88)
(Decrease) / Increase in Payables 214.10 146.00 159.40 74.20 (24.10) 569.60 113.92
(Decrease) / Increase in Other Liabilities 0.00 0.00
Additional pension contributions
Tax Received / (Paid) (111.80) (82.90) (42.60) (41.00) (38.40) (316.70) (63.34)

Rounding / other 5.90 (5.30) 19.40 (0.30) 5.20 24.90 4.98

Net cash from operations 548.80 278.10 237.90 141.60 (28.00) 1,178.40 235.68 100%

Investing Activities:
Net (Purchase) / Sale of Fixed Assets (222.10) (128.70) (112.00) (82.80) (55.20) (600.80) (120.16) -51%
(Purchase) of Intangibles 0.00 0.00 0%
Other non current assets (purchased) (1.10) 19.90 (7.30) (13.70) (2.20) (0.44) 0%
Interest & dividends received 4.50 3.50 2.80 9.80 7.20 27.80 5.56 2%

Net cash from Investing activities (218.70) (105.30) (109.20) (80.30) (61.70) (575.20) (115.04)

Financing activities
Shares issued / (redeemend) 0.00 0.00 0%
Debt / leases issued / (repaid) (158.30) 126.80 1.10 (34.30) 78.30 13.60 1%

Interest paid on borrowings / leases (43.60) (12.60) (11.60) (11.60) (9.10) (88.50) -8%

Dividends paid (70.90) (242.50) (24.60) (26.80) (49.50) (414.30) (82.86) -35%
FX Differences / other (3.00) 4.20 (5.30) (0.70) 7.30 2.50 0%
Net from financing: (275.80) (124.10) (40.40) (73.40) 27.00 (486.70) (82.86)

Net cash flow in year 54.30 48.70 88.30 (12.10) (62.70) 116.50 -10%

Total cash at start of year 463.70 415.00 326.7 338.8 401.50 401.5 -100%
Total cash at end of year 518.00 463.70 415.00 326.70 338.80 518.00

Cash at end of year per BS 518.10 463.70 415.00 326.70 338.80 518.10

Diff 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10

Key Measures: Formula


Scale:
EBITDA 688.70 419.70 318.30 189.30 138.30 From Income Stmt
Cash from Operations 548.80 278.10 237.90 141.60 (28.00) From above

Operating activities:
Cash from Operations : EBITDA 79.7% 66.3% 74.7% 74.8% -20.2% Cash from Operations / EBITDA

Investing activities:
Capex : Depreciation & Amortisation 89.4% 156.0% 155.3% 136.9% 134.3% -Net capex / depreciation & amortisation
Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) 326.70 149.40 125.90 58.80 -83.20 Net cash from ops - net capex
FCFF : EBITDA 47.4% 35.6% 39.6% 31.1% -60.2% FCFF / EBITDA

Financing Activities
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) for completeness 124.80 263.60 115.40 12.90 -14.00 FCFF - debt repaid - interest paid

Altman Z Score (Manufacturing)


W/Cap 922.40 997.60 828.30 870.50 804.80
Total Assets 4378.30 3207.10 2853.80 2765.10 2620.30
1.2 x Working Capital ÷Total Assets 0.2528104515451 0.37327180319 0.3482935 0.37778019 0.36856848
Retained Earnings 1668.00 1499.90 1566.10 1496.50 1441.70
Total Assets 4378.30 3207.10 2853.80 2765.10 2620.30
1.4 x Retained Earnings÷Total Assets 0.5333576959094 0.65475351564 0.7682879 0.75769412 0.77028585
EBIT 440.20 337.20 246.20 128.80 97.20
Total Assets 4378.30 3207.10 2853.80 2765.10 2620.30
3.3 x EBIT÷Total Assets 0.3317863097549 0.34696766549 0.28469409 0.15371596 0.12241346
MVe 10219.69 6173.11 5423.22 3708.11 2967.08
Total Liabilities 2457.90 1485.00 1197.20 1042.90 1000.90
0.6 x MVe ÷ Total liabilities 2.4947374588063 2.49418626263 2.71795189 2.13334433 1.77864962
Sales 5502.20 4648.30 4135.90 3626.70 3387.40
Total Assets 4378.30 3207.10 2853.80 2765.10 2620.30
1.0 x Sales ÷Total Assets 1.2566978050842 1.44937794269 1.44926063 1.31159813 1.29275274

Total (<1.8 high risk, 1.8 - 2.99 medium, 3 or more low 4.8693897210999 5.31855718963 5.56848802 4.73413273 4.33267015

Altman Z Score (Non-Manufacturing)


W/Cap 922.40 997.60 828.30 870.50 804.80
Total Assets 4378.30 3207.10 2853.80 2765.10 2620.30
6.56 x Working Capital ÷Total Assets 1.3820304684467 2.04055252409 1.90400449 2.06519837 2.01484105
Retained Earnings 1668.00 1499.90 1566.10 1496.50 1441.70
Total Assets 4378.30 3207.10 2853.80 2765.10 2620.30
3.26 x Retained Earnings÷Total Assets 1.2419614919033 1.52464032927 1.78901325 1.76434487 1.79366561
EBIT 440.20 337.20 246.20 128.80 97.20
Total Assets 4378.30 3207.10 2853.80 2765.10 2620.30
6.72 x EBIT÷Total Assets 0.6756375762282 0.706552337 0.5797407 0.31302159 0.24927833
Book value of equity 1920.40 1722.10 1656.60 1722.20 1619.40
Total Liabilities 2457.90 1485.00 1197.20 1042.90 1000.90
1.05 x BVe ÷ Total liabilities 0.8203832539973 1.21764646465 1.45291514 1.73392463 1.69884104

Total (<1.1 high risk, 1.1 - 2.6 medium, 2.61 or more low) 4.1200127905754 5.48939165501 5.72567356 5.87648946 5.75662603
Puma SE - Gordon Growth Valuations

Actual Actual Actual


12/31/2019 12/31/2018 12/31/2017
EUR m EUR m EUR m

Ke / CAPM %
Rf -0.34% Bloomberg.com 8 Apr 21 (10 year Bunds)
Beta 0.60 Reuters.com 8 Apr 21
Rm 6.62% Market-Risk-Premia.com 8 Apr 21
Rm - Rf 6.96%
Ke 3.84%

WACC:
Current share price € 90.84 Reuters.com 8 Apr 21
Market Cap EURm 13,582.40
MVd 979.80
Kd 2.31%
MVc (518.10)
Kc 0.00%
Tax rate 26.01%

MVd x (1-t)Kd 16.72


Mve x Ke 521.02
MVc x (1-t)Kc 0.00
EV 14,044.10
WACC 3.83%

Inputs for Gordon Growth from worksheets


Dividends (Equity) (70.90) (242.50) (24.60)
FCFE (Equity) 124.80 263.60 115.40
FCFF (Entity) 326.70 149.40 125.90
Less net debt

Equity EP (source values from Income Statement worksheet)


Profit after interest & after tax (Earnings) 309.00 229.60 167.90

Total Capital = Equity PRIOR YEAR 1,722.10 1,656.60 1,722.20


Equity Capital Charge % Ke from above 3.84% 3.84% 3.84%
Capital charge value 66.06 63.55 66.06

Equity economic profit / residual income EURm 242.94 166.05 101.84


Add closing equity (balance sheet)
Actual Actual Average F1 for GG g% for GG GG Valuation
12/31/2016 12/31/2015 Equity in BOLD
EUR m EUR m € 13,582.40 Target

m 8 Apr 21 (10 year Bunds)

remia.com 8 Apr 21

Test inputs in yellow boxes: Original Inputs (leave as


F1 for GG
(26.80) (49.50) (82.86) 70.00 3.30% € 13,059.70 Equity 70.00
12.90 (14.00) 100.54 135.00 2.80% € 13,030.89 Equity 135.00
58.80 (83.20) 115.52 140.00 2.80% € 13,605.92 Entity 140.00
(461.70) € 13,144.22 Equity

88.40

1,619.40
3.84%
62.12

26.28 134.28 115.00 2.85% € 11,663.29 115.00


1,920.40 € 13,583.69 Equity
Original Inputs (leave as is)
g% for GG
3.30%
2.80%
2.80%

2.85%

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