Refrigerant options now

and in the future

A white paper on the global trends within refrigerants in air
conditioning and refrigeration seen from a Danfoss perspective.
Update February 2020.

Achieving sustainable
HVAC/R through
intelligent solutions,
energy efficiency and

low-GWP
refrigerants

www.refrigerants.danfoss.com
 Policy Statement
Danfoss encourages the further development and use of low-GWP refrigerants to help slow, and ultimately
reverse, the process of global warming while helping to ensure continued global well-being and economic
development along with the future viability of our industry.

We will enable our customers to achieve these refrigerant goals while continuing to
enhance the energy efficiency of refrigeration and air-conditioning equipment.

Danfoss will proactively develop products for low-GWP refrigerants,

both natural and synthetic, to fulfil customers’ needs for practical and
safe solutions without compromising energy efficiency.

Danfoss will lead and be recognized in the

development of natural refrigerant solutions.
Danfoss will develop and support products for low-
GWP synthetic refrigerants, particularly for those
applications where natural refrigerant solutions are
not yet practical or economically feasible.

2 Refrigerant options now and in the future

Table of Contents
Policy Statement ........................................................................................................2
Executive Summary..................................................................................................4
Refrigerant Regulations..........................................................................................5
Standardization and Risk Assessment...........................................................7
Sustainability is the Key..........................................................................................9
The Outlook................................................................................................................10
Refrigerant Options................................................................................................12
Conclusions.................................................................................................................14
Appendix 1..................................................................................................................15
Legislation and regulations

Appendix 2..................................................................................................................22
Impact of direct leakage as a function of the leakage rate

Appendix 3..................................................................................................................23
History

White paper 3
 Executive Summary
Danfoss, world leader in the supply of compressors and controls, has one of the
most extensive and complete product ranges in the HVAC/R industry. Our products
are found in numerous business areas, such as food retail, commercial and
industrial refrigeration, air conditioning, products for wholesale refrigeration, and
automation in various specific industrial sectors. More than 85 years of experience
has put Danfoss at the forefront in developing products using refrigerants and
in evaluating the viability of new refrigerants as they are introduced. This paper
contains a summarized look at our experience and knowledge, describing the
background, trends, and drivers that frame the scenarios for present and future
refrigerant selection.

The history of refrigerants is a long and cyclical story. We predict that vapor-
compression systems will remain the primary technology for the foreseeable future
and anticipate that refrigerant consumption will increase dramatically with the
growing demand from emerging economies. Pairing systems and technologies
with the most suitable refrigerant is a decision that will impact users for years to
come. Most experts point to safety, affordability, and environmental friendliness as
the most important factors to consider when building a system. But a balance of
these factors can’t be found in just one refrigerant for all applications.

Selecting new alternatives implies investments, costs, and burdens, but we believe
that if these selections are made correctly, and with an innovative approach, they
can open doors to new opportunities. By developing new safe technologies and
procedures for handling systems, we know that we will continue to move towards
much lower GWP refrigerants than are currently in use today. We foresee a decade
of intensive product and system development as well as a challenging market
adaptation. However the global agreement on an orderly phase-down of high-
GWP refrigerants has finally made sure we are heading in the right direction.

1987 1970
Montreal Protocol Discovery of the ozone
on CFC and HCFC depletion process
HCFC

Sustainable
Technologies:
1995 • Environmentally
Global warming benign
becomes an issue
• Safe in use
1930-50
Invention of
C
HFC

CF

• Affordable safe refrigerants

NATURALS NATURALS + HFO

1834 Growing need for 2015 2019 2022

Invention of the vapor safe refrigerants EU HFC Montreal Protocol Revision of the EU F-Gas
compression process. phase-down on HFCs regulation on HFCs
Natural refrigerants

Figure 1: The historical cycle of refrigerants

More info about the history in Appendix 3.

4 Refrigerant options now and in the future

 Refrigerant Regulations
Regulations, both national and international, have been some of the most
important drivers for spurring investment in new technology. Figure 2 charts
an overview of the main HFC phase-downs that have already been imposed on Legislative CAPS
the industry. The measures for reducing HFC consumption are mostly forced by on Consumption
regulation, and they all mean to place limits for consumption within the market.
Specific guidance measures on market development—like GWP limits for certain • GWP limits on applications
applications—generate an underlying concern over the availability of sustainable • Demands on operation
solutions. When new regulations are made, they are intended to encompass and and service
balance the guidance measures and industry concerns. • TAX and incentives

HCFCs—particularly R22—have already been phased out in the EU, with the US and
other developed countries following suit at the end of 2019. Developing countries
began phasing out HCFCs in 2015 and will continue until 2030. It is important to
remember that the HCFC R22 is used in many different applications, which makes Industry low-GWP
the phase-out a challenge as no single non-flammable low-GWP refrigerant can solutions
replace it. Appendix 1, table 1 shows the HCFC phase-down steps.
• Safety
• Energy efficiency
In October 2016, the HFC phase-down steps were agreed and became part of the • Affordability
Montreal Protocol, also called the Kigali Amendment – which came into force on
January 1st 2019. If ratified by a country after that date, the Kigali Amendment
will enter into effect in the country 90 days afterwards (see Appendix 1, table 2 for
the HFC phase-down steps). There is a special activity aimed at improving energy Figure 3: Dynamic between the legislative
efficiency while phasing down HFCs called the Kigali Cooling Efficiency Program frame and the industry solutions.
(KCEP). The KCEP is expected to spur the introduction of sustainable technologies
in the fast-growing cooling segment.

Besides the phase-down and phase-out mechanisms discussed above, many

governments are applying measures for reducing high-GWP refrigerant
consumption, such as GWP-weighted taxes. To date, Spain, Denmark, Norway and
Sweden have imposed taxes on HFCs. Additionally, national incentives in the form of
subsidies on low-GWP refrigerants are currently being used in many other countries.

In Appendix 1, a detailed overview is made for the main regulations including the
Montreal Protocol, the EU F-gas regulation, and the US SNAP regulation, which was
turned down by federal court but again taken up in several US states.

HFC consumption phase-down for art. 5 and non-art. 5 countries

100 100 100 EU F-gas reg.

95
94
90 90 90 Non A5-1
83
Non A5-2
80 80 A5-1
70 70 A5-2
65
% of baseline

60
60
56 50

40 40

28 30

21
20 19 20 20
15 15

0
15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

Figure 2: Refrigerant phase-down (MP and EU).

See more details in Appendix 1.
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 Several states are establishing HFCs phase-down HFC phase-down starting in 2015 ending with 79% reduction in 2030

Europe

North
America Japan
Asia
Middle
East
Africa

South
America

Multilateral funds and KCEP support national Extended new framework law promoting low-GWP refrigerants
cooling action plans on low-GWP projects

Worldwide:
Montreal Protocol agreement on HFC phase-down in 2016 starting in 2019
National tax schemes on HFC
National incentives and subsidies
National research and demonstration support for low-GWP refrigerants

Figure 4: Global overview of refrigerant regulations

6 Refrigerant options now and in the future

Standardization and
Risk Assessment
All refrigerants can be safe if standards and safe-handling guidelines are followed.
Standards ensure common practices, technological alignment, and legal conformity.
This last point being important from the industry’s point of view since it reduces
risk and provides legal assurance when new products are developed. Danfoss
participates in the standardization task forces that contribute to the development
of important safety standards such as ISO 5149, EN378, and ASHRAE 15.

ASHRAE 15: Linked to building regulations EN 378: Linked to compliance with EU laws (MD and PED directives)

Europe
North
America China

India

South
America

Australia &
New Zealand

GB9237 corresponding to ISO 5149

ASHRAE 15 or ISO 5149: Voluntary ISO 5149 being implemented AS/NZS 1677: Partly mandatory but changing to ISO 5149

Figure 5: Global overview of standards

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 Figure 6 shows how refrigerant standards are connected with safety standards. For
example, ASHRAE 34 was used in ISO 817 to create the refrigeration classifications.
These classifications are in turn used in safety standards like ISO 5149, ASHRAE 15,
and the European safety standard EN 378.

When evaluating refrigerants, risk awareness is always a crucial parameter.

Ask yourself, “What level of risk is acceptable?” Before answering, keep in mind the
difference between perceived and actual risk. Perceived risk of the new refrigerant
tends to be seen as higher than the actual risk. As industry competence and user
experience increase, we will see a reduction in the perceived risk of using
a refrigerant. Compare this to the perceived risk of flying versus driving a car:
driving a car is often perceived as being safer than air travel, while the opposite
is actually true.

Logic line
ISO 5149
Application
standards

EN378
ASHRAE 15 “New” refrigerants
Actual Risk

User experience
Refrigerant

ISO 817
standards

Mature refrigerants Industry competence

ASHRAE 34
Perceived Risk

Figure 6: Refrigeration and application standards Figure 7: Perceived and actual risk

The development of standards is moving towards a wider acceptance of

flammable refrigerants. Figure 8 presents an overview of the development of the
main standards and the inclusion of flammable refrigerants.

ISO 5149 does not support ISO 5149 supports flammable Increased International for large systems
flammable refrigerants refrigerants (A3, A2L) charge sizes

Aligned with ISO 5149 Increased

EN 378 supports flammable refrigerants
charge sizes EU for large systems
on 2L flammability

International Full support

Full A3
and regional IEC 60335-2-40 supports some flammable refrigerants of 2L International for A/C and heat pumps
Support
flammability
standards
A3 up to 0.5 kg International for small commercial
IEC 60335-2-89 supports some flammable refrigerants A2L up to 1.2 kg refrigeration

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Support A2L
ASHRAE 15 has very limited support for flammable refrigerants US large systems
but not A3

Support A2L
UL 60335-2-40 does not support flammable refrigerants US for A/C and heat pumps
but not A3

Selected Chinese national standard GB9237 does not Copies the new ISO 5149 with full
China for large systems
national support flammable refrigerants support of flammables
standards
Chinese national standard for A/C & HP supports flammable
No flammables China for A/C and heat pumps
refrigerants, but no special support of 2L

Figure 8: Safety standards development -

recognising the need for flammable refrigerants.

8 Refrigerant options now and in the future

Sustainability is the Key
Regarding long-term sustainable refrigerant solutions, Danfoss considers three
main parameters that must be aligned to accomplish a real sustainable balance:
affordability, safety and environmental friendliness.

When choosing a new refrigerant for an application, all three parameters need
to be considered together. If not, it will be impossible to achieve long-term,
sustainable results. It is important to look at the many underlying parameters such
as lowest life-cycle cost, service availability, operational efficiency and safety, and
the GWP of the refrigerant. A sustainable solution will be achieved only when all
of these parameters are balanced. Achieving this balance will require a thorough
evaluation of the factors which influence these parameters as shown in figure 9.

Long-term sustainable solutions may not necessarily be viable in the short term.
While we can engineer a sustainable solution, there are more factors that will
determine whether new refrigerant solutions are viable. In order to quantify the
industrial viability of developing new sustainable solutions for new refrigerants, Affordability
Danfoss has developed a model that breaks down the main parameters.

We call this the Seven Forces model. The red arrows refer to economic factors LLCC*
and the grey arrows are cultural factors such as knowledge, education, and
legislation. When the balance between the red and grey forces reach the
viability level, it becomes much more likely that the industry will start Energy efficiency
investing in new solutions and technologies. When investing in new
Service**
technologies and building up competencies, legislation and derived
standardization are the major drivers.
GWP Toxicity
En

Over the past ten years, the viability level has been increasing Flammability
vir

y
fet
on

for many low-GWP refrigerants. Good examples are CO2 * Lowest Life Cycle Cost
me

Sa
** Ensure COP and Low Leakage
applications for commercial refrigeration, especially
nt

supermarkets.
Figure 9: Refrigerant sustainability triangle

1. Investment cost
Investments in product development
Investment Cost

Life-cycle Cost

Complexity

2. Life-cycle cost
Life-cycle cost for the consumer. Contains
upfront cost and running cost

3. Complexity
Complexity associated with
manufacturing and marketing the
product
Viability
level 4. Risk Awareness
TREND

Difference between perceived and actual

risk of using the product

5. Market Readiness
Market competence in safe adoption of
Standards & Legislation

new technologies and products

Market Readiness

Technical Ability
Risk Awareness

6. Technical Ability
Ability and competence in developing
new products

7. Standards & Legislation

S&L includes bans, taxes and voluntary
agreements

Figure 10: The Seven Forces model

White paper 9
 The Outlook
The sustainability triangle (figure 9) shows the three sustainability parameters and
their diverse facets. Both system manufacturers and users want long-term solutions
that are environmentally benign, safe, and affordable. Natural refrigerants have a
low-GWP and are efficient, and we expect them to become the preferred choice
whenever possible; though safety will still be a limiting factor in regulating the
usage of natural and some HFC / HFO refrigerants.

The trend shows a growing acceptance of mildly flammable, A2L refrigerants,

especially now that they have been incorporated into the new ISO and IEC
standards. We also see highly flammable, A3 refrigerants increasingly being used
in smaller systems that are heavily supported by the new IEC 60335-2-89 standard.
In the context of being able to handle flammable refrigerants in the field, the
Refrigerant Driving License (RDL) has made big progress as was reported at the
Montreal Protocol meeting in 2019. RDL aims to develop the service sector to
encourage competent and safe servicing and installation. It addresses the main
barriers that currently inhibit the mass introduction of low-GWP refrigerants and as
such have become important in the global phase-down of HFCs.

Our international group of experts within Danfoss has projected what we see as
the likely refrigerant outlook. This outlook is summarized on the next page.

CO2 is widely used in industrial refrigeration and commercial refrigeration racks and
we believe that this trend, which started in Europe, will extend to the rest of the
world. CO2 heat pumps might also become more used.

We foresee ammonia continuing to be a very well accepted, particularly

in industrial refrigeration applications, though its toxicity means requires unique
safety measures. We expect that a solution using both CO2 and ammonia will
be mainly used at some point in the future. We see the very energy-efficient
hydrocarbons playing an important role in low-charge systems around the
globe. We believe that HFCs will not disappear, but will be limited to those with
the lowest GWP and will be combined with HFOs as is already happening. HFC
and HFO are now moving towards more environmentally friendly, but often
mildly flammable, versions, making safety precautions all the more important.

The demand for low-GWP refrigerants will continue to challenge our current
perception of which refrigerants can be used in certain applications, but will also
drive innovations in system design.

10 Refrigerant options now and in the future

 Air Conditioning & Heat Pumps
Residential A/C
Roof top units Commercial A/C Commmercial A/C Res. & Commercial Industrial
incl reversible
Scroll Scrolls Screw / Centrifugal Heat Pumps W/W Heat pumps
systems
Capacity 1-10 kW 10-30 kW 30-400 kW 400 kW - 5 MW 1-10 MW 1-10 MW
Refrigerant Region/Year 2020 2023 2027 2020 2023 2027 2020 2023 2027 2020 2023 2027 2020 2023 2027 2020 2023 2027
NAM
CO2 EU
(R744) China
ROW
NAM
NH3 EU
(R717) China
ROW
NAM
HC EU
e.g. R290 China
ROW
NAM
HFC EU
(A1)
High-GWP* China
ROW
NAM
HFC/HFO EU
(A1 & A2L)
Mid-GWP* China
ROW
NAM
HFC/HFO EU
(A1 & A2L)
Low-GWP* China
ROW
* GWP classification is somewhat dependent on current solution & operating pressure baseline.
General guidance: High > 1000, Mid 300–1000, Low < 300.

Refrigeration
Domestic- Centralised
Light Commercial Industrial
Household Condensing Units Commercial racks
Refrigeration Refrigeration
Refrigeration (Supermarkets)
Capacity 50-300 W 0,15 - 5 kW 3-20 kW 20-500 kW 1-10 MW
Refrigerant Region/Year 2020 2023 2027 2020 2023 2027 2020 2023 2027 2020 2023 2027 2020 2023 2027
NAM ** **
CO2 EU ** **
(R744) China **
ROW **
NAM ** **
NH3 EU ** **
(R717) China **
ROW
NAM
HC EU
e.g. R290 China
ROW
NAM
HFC EU
(A1) China
ROW
NAM
HFC/HFO EU
(GWP< 150)
(A2L) China
ROW
** Ammonia/CO2 cascades will dominate industrial refrigeration

Main refrigerant Limited use and only niche applications

Regular use Not applicable or unclear situation

Tables 1a and 1b: Global trends in refrigeration, air conditioning and heat pumps. Status
January 2020.

White paper 11
 Refrigerant Options
Facing the regulatory pressures to eliminate high-GWP refrigerants, many
alternatives are being proposed. There is a trade-off between a lower GWP and
flammability. As seen in figure 11, most of the current refrigerants have no simple
low-GWP drop-in solutions: flammability is linked to GWP and refrigerant capacity.
Lower GWP and higher capacity comes with increased flammability.
To date, the focus has been on new unsaturated fluoro-chemicals, also known as
hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), especially R1234yf, R1234ze(E), and R1233zd. They have
very low GWP levels, are non-flammable or only mildly flammable, and belong to a
group of lower density refrigerants. R1233zd has a very low ODP value (only a small
percentage of R22) but this remains a problem in a few countries like Denmark.
To lower the GWP of higher density HFCs, HFOs are mixed with HFCs. As seen in
figures 13a and 13b, the proposed blends within the same group are similar to
each other, with the main differences being based on which R1234 type is used
and the exact refrigerant it is replacing.

Main refrigerants at play

A complex picture in continuous evolution
Legend
> 2500 R422B/D R404A Flammability
A1 – Non-flammable
line
< 2500 R438A R452A R410A A2L – Mildly flammable
R22 R407A/F/H
R134a R449A A3 – Highly flammable
< 1500 R449B Flammability
R448A Bl – Toxic – non-flammable
Line w/ CF3I?
R450A B2L – Toxic – less flammable
R466A
R513A
GWP

< 750 R513B R32/R452B On the market

R515A
R515B R454B
Not yet on the market
< 300 R444B R454A
R123 R516A R454C No LGWP option
R455A Must move to
< 150 R1336mzz(Z) R1270 low density
R514A
R1233zd(E)
R600a R744/CO2 GWP versus density
R1234ze/yf R290 R717/NH3
(pressure) of the main
Vacuum Low Medium High Other
refrigerant groups
Density

Figure 11: Carbon -chain-based Refrigerants (HCs, HFCs, HCFCs), GWP versus density (pressure)
of the main refrigerant groups

In figure 12 and according to ASHRAE 34, refrigerants are divided into classes
depending on toxicity and flammability. A1 refrigerants are non-flammable and
have very low toxicity. At the other end of the scale, with high flammability and
high toxicity, no B3 refrigerants are available. Hydrocarbons, characterized by
low toxicity and high flammability, require special precautions. Ammonia, on the
other hand, is highly toxic and has low flammability. It is widely used, especially in
industrial refrigeration due to its high energy efficiency.

The A2L subgroup is made up of refrigerants with a low flammability. Flame

propagation speed is low, less than 10 cm/s. These refrigerants are already
playing a significant role as we move away from the old high-GWP HFCs.

Lower Toxicity Higher Toxicity

No flame Propagation A1: CFC, HCFC, most HFCs B1: Seldom used
Flammability

Lower Flammability A2L: Most HFOs, R32 B2L: Ammonia

Flammable A2: R152 B2: Seldom used

Higher Flammability A3: Hydrocarbons B3: no refrigerants

Toxicity
Figure 12: Refrigerant classes

12 Refrigerant options now and in the future

 There are application-specific pros and cons for using refrigerants. How do the
energy-efficiency improvement schemes match? Is it intended for a fast drop-in
or is it part of a major redesign cycle? What are the climate conditions and will
the local markets be ready to handle the refrigerant? What is the impact of glide
from a service perspective? Will it make sense to go for one type of refrigerant or
will a dual strategy be better? Today it is evident that A2L refrigerants are efficient
and available – albeit a tremendous amount of new refrigerant releases are
evident. Components are also available or likely to be soon. For R1234ze some
special conditions apply. R1234ze is categorized as an A2L refrigerant but is only
flammable above 30°C. This is why the EN 378, which is harmonized with the EU
PED Directive, does not recognize R1234ze as a hazardous substance, but as a
PED group 2 fluid. This has the positive effect that it avoids material traceability
for pipes and components until 100 mm in normative diameter while the other
flammable refrigerants need traceability at 25 mm.

One of the biggest challenges has been to develop a non-flammable low-GWP

R410A substitution. This was impossible with H, C and F-based molecules until the
introduction of ionide. R466A is a refrigerant designed for R410 drop-in, with a GWP
of 730, and it’s composed by R32, R125, and CF3I. The CF3I molecule containing
iodine is known as a flammability suppressor, but it also has an ODP value yet not
accounted for in the Montreal Protocol. Material compatibility, development, and
testing of components is mostly ongoing.

Main replacement options: composition and GWP levels

100 R227ea

90 CF3I

80 R744

70 R32
% composition

R152a
60
R125
50
R134a
40
R1234ze
30
R1234yf
20

10

0
B

A
f
4y

4z

R3
15

54

52
54
13

50

48

49

52

55

66
23

23
R5

R4

R4
R4
R5

R4

R4

R4

R4

R4

R4
R1

R1

A1
2500
R134a subs. R404A, R407 series. R410A subs.
A2L

2000

1500
GWP

1000

500

0
B

A
f
4y

4z

R3
15

54

52
54
13

50

48

49

52

55

66
23

23
R5

R4

R4
R4
R5

R4

R4

R4

R4

R4

R4
R1

R1

Figures 13a and 13b: The main replacement options and their composition and GWP levels

White paper 13
 The usage of approved components for systems containing flammable refrigerants
is not a problem if the system builder is designing systems according to the safety
standards. The system builder always has to perform a risk assessment and ensure
that explosive atmopheres cannot arise.

In cases where leackage occurs and where flammable atmospheres are foreseen,
ignition sources must be avoided or moved to a non-flammable zone. One method
to avoid ignition sources is to use EX components. A good guideline — targeting the
EU — can be found at the ASERCOM website. The guideline has been established
with the input of major components manufacturers. The procedure is shown in
figure 14 — note that during service, all ignition sources have to be powered off.

Requirements and usage

of component to avoid
igniting refrigerant-
containing atmosphere

Normal operation
Service
(non-ATEX zone)

Show that the component Keep surface temperatures Keep surface

when powered cannot 100 K below auto-ignition temperatures 100 K Remove power to
be reached by leaked temperature and no below auto-ignition component or use ATEX-
refrigerant at LFL ignition sources according to temperature and ATEX approved component
concentration EN standard approval of component

Figure 14: Requirements and usage of components in systems

containing flammable refrigerants. Source : ASERCOM.

Conclusions
Refrigerants are more than ever a necessity in a world where cooling and
heating needs are growing. The selection of the right refrigeration has a great
impact. While some of yesterday’s solutions have had consequences for today’s
environment, it is imperative that the industry looks ahead to find future-proof
solutions to current challenges. Doing so effectively will require a solid working
partnership with a company that not only possesses a dynamic history and a
comprehensive knowledge of the current standards, legislation, and emerging
technologies, but that also maintains an eye on the future in terms of safety and
environmental responsibility. Danfoss is just such a company.

With over eighty-five years of experience, combined with our willingness

to meet the challenges of today’s industry, we are a leader that is poised to
offer our partners sustainable solutions. Danfoss is ready to work with you in
defining and implementing the best alternative for your applications. Together
we can conquer today’s challenges while addressing the needs of tomorrow.

14 Refrigerant options now and in the future

Appendix 1.
Legislation and regulations
1.1 Montreal Protocol
With the 2016 inclusion of a global HFC phase-down, the Montreal Protocol now
has two regimes to control: the ODP and GWP substances. The phase-out schedule
for HCFC can be seen in table 2 and the phase-down schedules for HFC can be
seen in table 3. It is worth noting that the non-A5 countries rely on baselines that
are frozen already while the A5 countries have a combination of the HCFC quota
(already frozen) and a HFC consumption, which has yet to come. This has triggered
some speculation about the incentives for A5 counties to have an early move to
low-GWP refrigerants as this would decrease their baseline.

Group I: HCFCs (consumption)

Non-Article 5(1) Parties: Consumption Article 5(1) Parties: Consumption
(Developed Countries) (Developing Countries)
Base level: 1989 HCFC consumption + 2.8 per Base level: Average 2009 – 2010
cent of 1989 CFC consumption
Freeze: 1996 Freeze: January 1, 2013
35% reduction January 1, 2004 10% reduction January 1, 2015
75% reduction January 1, 2010 35% reduction January 1, 2020
90% reduction January 1, 2015 67.5% reduction January 1, 2025
100% reduction January 1, 2020, 100% reduction January 1, 2030,
Allowance of 0.5% of base level Allowance of 2.5% of base level
consumption until January 1, 2030 consumption when averaged over
for servicing of refrigeration and air- ten years 2030 – 2040 until January
conditioning equipment existing on 1, 2040 for servicing of refrigeration
1 January 2020. and air-conditioning equipment
existing on 1 January 2030.

Table 2: HCFC phase-out schedule and baselines

Source: UNEP

Non A5-1 Non A5-2 A5-1 A5-2

Freeze – – 2024 (100%) 2028 (100%)
Step 1 2019 – 90% 2020 –95% 2029 – 90% 2032 – 90%
Step 2 2024 – 60% 2025 – 65% 2035 – 70% 2037 – 80%
Step 3 2029 – 30% 2029 – 30% 2040 – 50% 2042 – 70%
Step 4 2034 – 20% 2034 –20% – –
Final 2036 –15% 2036 –15% 2045 – 20% 2047 – 15%
Countries All non A5 except Belarus, Russia, All A5 expect A5-2 India, Pakistan, Iran,
non A5-2 and the EU Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait,
Uzbekistan Oman, Qatar, Saudi,
Arabia, UAE

Baseline HFC-average HCFC-average HCFC-average HCFC-average

(2011 – 2013) + 15% (2011 – 2013) 25% (2020 – 2022) 65% of (2024 – 2026) + 65%
of HCFC baseline of HCFC baseline HCFC baseline (A5) of HCFC baseline (A5)
(non-A5) (non-A5)
Comments HCFC phase-out plan HCFC phase-out plan HCFC phase-out plan HCFC phase-out plan
does not correspond corresponds to the corresponds to the corresponds to the
to the 15% in 2011 25% in 2010 – 2014 65% in 2020 – 2024 65% in 2020 – 2024
- but likely reflects
actual consumption

Table 3: HFC phase-down schedule and baselines

Source: UNEP

White paper 15
 1.2 MAC Directive (EU)
This directive bans the use of any refrigerant with a GWP above 150 in air-
conditioning systems in motor vehicles starting from:
• January 2011 for new models of existing vehicles
• January 2017 for all new vehicles
The directive does not cover other applications.
R134a, still the globally most common refrigerant in MACs, has a GWP of 1430 and is
thus affected by the ban as well. R1234yf is increasingly being introduced and today,
several millions of cars are using this HFO in the US and the EU.

1.3 F-Gas Regulation (EU)

The F-gas regulation was implemented at January 1, 2015. The regulation put in
place an HFC phase-down from 2015 to 2030 by means of a quota system and
sectorial bans on high-GWP refrigerants. R404A/R507 is especially under pressure
and will be phased out of all commercial systems. A quota-allocation mechanism
has been made and the first phase-down steps were accomplished between
2016 and 2018 with quotas reduced by 44% compared to baseline. The quota-
system mechanism assigns quotas to producers and importers of bulk gases.
Quota holders can transfer part of their quota via authorizations e.g. to importers
of pre-charged units. Authorizations can again be delegated but only once. All
operations must be reported in the central registry to ensure compliance with the
regulation. For more detailed descriptions and Q&A documents, please refer to the
EU homepage or to the EPEE homepage.

The import of pre-charged units and the need for a retrofit of R22 systems with
HFC replacements are not taken into account in the baseline for the phase-down.
The import of pre-charged units is estimated at 11% of the official baseline. As the
amount of HFC import in pre-charged units is included in the official quota from
2017, it has created extra pressure
on the availability of HFCs.

By adding the demand for pre-charged units into the phase-down steps and
assuming a constant consumption in metric tons over the years, a different
scenario becomes evident. By 2018, the quota fell to 56% of the baseline compared
to the previous 63%. The 2030 target of 21% of baseline becomes in reality around
19%. The calculations can be seen in figure 15.

100% Original
Year phase-down
90% schedule
Original phase-down 2015 100%
80% schedule excluding 2016 94%
imported pre-charged 2017 83%
70% units 2018 56%
60% 2019 56%
2020 56%
50% 2021 40%
Alternative 2022 40%
40% 2023 40%
recalculated phase-
down schedule 2024 28%
30% including imported 2025 28%
pre-charged units
20% 2026 28%
2027 21%
10% 2028 21%
2029 21%
0% 2030 19%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Alternative phase-down
Initial phase-down in % of metric tons

Figure 15: The EU phase-down depending on inclusion of pre-charged units or not.

16 Refrigerant options now and in the future

 The expected composition of the phase-down until 2021 is outlined in figure
16.It is obvious that the refrigeration sector will be the main contributor to
the phase-down while AC and HP will gain more contribution later.

250
Mobile A/C & non Ref_A/C
Million TOns CO₂ eq. of HFC

A/C and heat pumps

200
Refrigeration
placed on market

Quota
150

100

50

0
Baseline 2018 2021

Figure 16: The sectorial contribution to the EU HFC phase-down

Source Danfoss from EPEE Gapometer Project

Observations at the end of 2019 show that refrigerant prices peaked at 400
to 600% increase for the most common types of HFCs like R404A, 134a, and
recently R410A — but during the year, the prices are declining. It can only be
recommended that a detailed plan is made to replace refrigerants with a high GWP
and especially R404A. R410A is the only refrigerant which doesn’t have an A1 class
substitute with a lower GWP alternative (see figure 11). Based on that, R410A might
be the only old mainstream HFCs that will be used in the coming years – albeit at a
much higher price. A fast transition to lower GWP alternatives is likely to happen to
avoid shortages in the market.

1.4 Equipment bans

The phase-down schedule is complemented with bans on new equipment and
bans on servicing equipment with high-GWP refrigerants, as shown in figure 17.
Although the service bans are far into the future, they are within the expected
lifespan of today’s new equipment. This puts pressure on the industry now to stop
building R404A/507 systems.

Servicing equipment using new Single split A/C systems containing

refrigerants with GWP ≥ 2500 for less than 3kg of HFC, GWP ≥750.
temperatures ≥ -50˚C and charge ≥ 40 Bans R134a, R407C and R410A. Seems
tonnes CO2eq. Except for military equipment. very feasible for A2L refrigerants.
Domestic refrigerators and Bans servicing of 404A/507 equipment with
freezers, GWP ≥150. Bans R134a. 10.2kg or more charge using new 404A/507. Servicing equipment using
Natural refrigerants like R600a Recycled refrigerant is still allowed. refrigerants with GWP ≥ 2500 for
will be used. temperatures ≥ -50˚C and charge
≥ 40 tonnes CO2eq. Except for
Commercial refrigerators military equipment. Bans servicing of
and Freezers, hermetically 404A/507 equipment with 10.2kg or
Movable room A/C,
sealed, GWP ≥150. Bans R134a. more charge.
hermetically sealed, GWP ≥150.
Natural refrigerants will be main
Bans traditional HFCs. Below 150g
refrigerants used. HFO solutions
natural refrigerants will be used.
can be used.

2015 • • • • 2020 • • • • 2025 • • • • 2030

Multipack centralized refrigeration

systems for commercial use with a
Commercial refrigerators and freezers, Stationary refrigeration equipment capacity ≥ 40kW, GWP ≥150 and
hermetically sealed, GWP ≥2500. Bans for temperatures above -50°C, GWP ≥1500 for primary circulation of
R404A/507. Natural refrigerants will be ≥2500. Bans R404A/507. Natural cascades. Bans traditional HFC, except
main refrigerants used. refrigerants and also new HFC will R134a in cascades. Also new HFC/HFO
increase. Many types of solutions. blends can play a role.

Figure 17: Bans on new equipment

White paper 17
 1.5 SNAP (US)
As a tool for implementation of the ODP phase-out back in 1989, the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the United States developed the Note: In August 2017, the US
Significant New Alternative Policy (SNAP) Program. The original purpose of the Supreme Court ruled against
SNAP program was to promote a safe and smooth transition away from ozone- the practice of delisting HFCs. At
depleting substances. The mechanism of SNAP is to accept, or eventually ban present this decision has been
specific refrigerants for usage in certain applications. But between 2014 and 2016, appealed and the outcome of this
it was also used to exclude certain high-GWP HFCs once accepted. This exclusion is not yet known. In July 2018 it
of non-ODP substances was recalled by court in 2017. was announced that eleven US
states filed suit against the EPA for
Between 2014 and 2016, exclusion dates for high-GWP HFCs in main application “effectively rescinding” regulations
sectors were set, while new low or medium-GWP HFC/HFOs and even HCs prohibiting the use of HFC
received acceptance for specific applications. refrigerants.

The first rule was Rule 17, which allowed four specific hydrocarbons for use
in household refrigerators and freezers and retail food refrigeration. These
hydrocarbons include up to 57g R600a for the household segment and up to
150g R290 for the retail segment. Since this rule, several other applications have
been allowed and an overview of the applications affected, with charge limits
similar to Rule 17, and additional rules, are being proposed.

The Clean Air Act Section 608 extends the requirements for the usage of refrigerants.
It lowers the leak-rate thresholds that trigger the duty to repair ACR equipment:
• Lowered from 35% to 30% for industrial process refrigeration
• Lowered from 35% to 20% for commercial refrigeration equipment
• Lowered from 15% to 10% for comfort cooling equipment

It requires quarterly/annual leak inspections for ACR equipment that has

exceeded the threshold leak rate and requires owners/operators to submit reports
to EPA if systems containing 50 or more pounds of refrigerant leak 125% or more
of their full charge in one calendar year. It further requires technicians to keep
a record of refrigerant recovered during system disposal from systems with a
charge size from 5 – 50 lbs.

SNAP Rules 20 & 21, and Section 608 Refrigerant Management HFC Rule,
provided a roadmap to the first two steps of HFC phase-down. But due to
litigation, the federal roadmap is not clear.

Commercial Section 608 Labeling,

HFC AC 750
HFC SNAP Rules California Refrigeration Refrigerant Recordkeeping
Emission GWP Limit
Commitment 20 & 21 SNAP 150 GWP Management or Disclosure
Phase-down 2023
Limit > 50 lbs Rules Requirements
Disclosure &
California 40% by 2030
Recordkeeping
Recordkeeping
“consistent with other
New York 20% by 2030
Climate Alliance
States
Notice and comment
rulemaking
Washington 20% by 2030
on reporting
requirements

New Jersey 40% by 2035

Vermont 40% by 2030

Connecticut

Maryland

Table 4: AHRI overview

18 Refrigerant options now and in the future

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) started to go ahead with an aggressive
plan for an early phase-down of HFCs, and more states have followed. The
proposed regulation prohibits the use of certain high-GWP and HFC substances in
new and retrofit stationary refrigeration equipment, and blowing agents in foam
end-uses. The regulation came into effective in mid-2018 and the first application
bans on specific HFCs came into force in January 2019. Table 4 shows more states
have followed without the same measures—making it difficult for the industry to
follow and understand..

Year System limit for refrigerant containment in new stationary systems GWP limit

2021 Refrigeration systems ≥ 50 pound 150

2021 Refrigeration systems ≥ 20 and ≤ 50 pound 1500

2021 Air-conditioning systems ≥ 2 pound 750

2021 Chillers 150

Sales restriction on refrigerants

2021 2500
No production, import, sales, distribution, or entry into commerce
2024 1500

Table 5: Detailed view of California’s regulation on HFC restrictions

New/
Applications Prohibited Substance Eff. Date
Retrofit

Supermarket systems remote New HFC-227ea, R-404A, R-407B, R-421B, R-422A, R-422C, R-422D, R-428A, R-434A, R-507A Jan. 2019
condensing units Retrofit R-404A, R-407B, R-421B, R-422A, R-422C, R-422D, R-428A, R-434A, R-507A Jan. 2019

Stand-alone MTunits with

a compressor capacity
below 2,200 Btu/hr and New Jan. 2019
not containing a flooded
evaporator

Stand-alone MTunits with a FOR12A, FOR12B, HFC-134a, HFC-227ea, KDD6, R-125/290/134a/600a (55.0/1.0/42.5/1.5),
compressor capacity below R-404A, R-407A, R-407B, R-407C, R-407F, R-410A, R-410B, R-417A, R-421A, R-421B, R-422A,
New Jan. 2020
2,200 Btu/hr containing a R-422B, R-422C, R-422D, R-424A, R-426A, R-428A, R-434A, R-437A, R-438A, R-507A, RS-24
flooded evaporator (2002 formulation), RS-44 (2003 formulation), SP34E, THR-03

Stand-alone MT units with a

compressor capacity equal to
New Jan. 2020
or greater than 2,200 Btu/hr
(new)

HFC-227ea, KDD6, R-125/290/134a/600a (55.0/1.0/42.5/1.5), R-404A, R-407A, R-407B,

Stand-alone low-temperature
New R-407C, R-407F, R-410A, R-410B, R-417A, R-421A, R-421B, R-422A, R-422B, R-422C, R-422D, Jan. 2020
units
R-424A, R-428A, R-434A, R-437A, R-438A, R-507A, RS-44 (2003 formulation)

Stand-alone units Retrofit R-404A, R-507A Jan. 2019

FOR12A, FOR12B, HFC-134a, KDD6, R-125/290/134a/600a (55.0/1.0/42.5/1.5), R-404A,

New R-407C, R-410A, R-410B, R-417A, R-421A, R-422B, R-422C, R-422D, R-426A, R-437A, R-438A, Jan. 2019
Vending machines R-507A, RS-24 (2002 formulation), SP34E

Retrofit R-404A, R-507A Jan. 2019

HFC-227ea, KDD6, R-125/290/134a/600a (55.0/1.0/42.5/1.5), R-404A, R-407A, R-407B,

Refrigerated food-processing
New R-407C, R-407F, R-410A, R-410B, R-417A, R-421A, R-421B, R-422A, R-422B, R-422C, R-422D, Jan. 2021
and dispensing equipment
R-424A, R-428A, R-434A, R-437A, R-438A, R-507A, RS-44 (2003 formulation)

Table 6: Outline of California’s restrictions on HFC

White paper 19
 1.6 China HCFC Phase-out Management Plan (HPMP):
The Chinese Green Cooling Action Plan submitted in June 2019 states that the HFC
phase-down will follow the Montreal Protocol schemes agreed in October 2016.
Besides having a focus on HFC phase-down, ambitious energy-efficiency targets for
specific applications are also planned in a short period. The total picture of the HCFC
phase-out and the HFC phase-down is seen in figure 18. To fulfil the HCFC phase-
out plan, the Chinese authorities are supporting projects for replacing HCFCs with
alternative refrigerants according to the phase-out plan, which can be found on the
UNEP homepage.

The evaluation of candidates has not just focused on the ozone depletion potential
(ODP), but also on GWP, safety and suitability for the application. The recommendations
from the Chinese authorities depend on the application and the time perspective, see
table 7. The recommendations include using a variety of known low-GWP refrigerant. The
recommendations are backed by the adoption process of international safety standards
such as ISO 5149 (GB9237) and the IEC 60335 series – see table 8 for overview. These
standards are under review and updated as the versions indicate.

120
HCFC
HFC
100

80
% of baseline

60

40

20

0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Year
Figure 18: The HCFC phase-out and the HFC phase-down for China

Application Present Short term (-2020) Long term (-2025)

Household refrigeration R22 / R600a R600a R600a

Industrial and commercial R22 / R134a / NH₃/CO2, R290, R600a,
R134a , NH₃
refrigeration R410A / NH₃ Low-GWP Blends

Small and medium chillers R22, R410A R410A,R32 R290, R32

Large chillers R22, R123, R134a R134a, R1234ze R1234ze, NH₃

Unitary AC / VRF / heat
R22, R410A, R407C R410A,R32 R32 , Low-GWP blends
pumps
Room AC R22, R410A R410A,R290 R290, R32

Table 7: Refrigerant options per application

China standard IEC standard

Corresponding
No latest version No latest version
version of IEC
GB4706.13 2014 2012 IEC60335-2-24 2012
GB4706.32 2012 2005 IEC60335-2-40 2013
GB4706.102 2010 2007 IEC60335-2-89 2015

Table 8: The IEC60335 series versus the Chinese standards

20 Refrigerant options now and in the future

1.7 Japan
Japan has, in 2014, introduced a comprehensive program to reduce the emission
of HFCs. The program is a life-cycle approach to reducing the GWP of the applied
HFCs as well as reducing the leakage of systems in the field (service and recycling)
and during end of life. The system does not apply direct bans or specific quota
allocation as seen in the US or the EU. Instead it targets specific GWP values for
specific applications combined with a labeling program.

Target year for full

Application Target GWP value (MAX)
implementation
Room air conditioning 750 2018
Commercial air conditioning 750 2020
Commercial refrigeration 1500 2025
Cold storage 100 2019
Mobile air conditioning 150 2023

Table 9: GWP values and timeline

1.8 Other local initiatives

A number of countries and regions have already taken steps to promote low-GWP
alternatives. Such steps include a cap on the refrigerant charge (Denmark), taxation
of high-GWP refrigerants (for instance in Denmark, Norway and Australia), and
subsidies for systems that use natural refrigerants (for instance in Germany and the
Canadian province of Quebec).

White paper 21
 Appendix 2.
Impact of direct leakage as a function
of the leakage rate
Example:
The following example can serve to illustrate the relationship between direct and
indirect impacts.

Typical refrigerant plant in a medium-sized supermarket:

• Store size: 1000 – 1500 m2
• Refrigerant: R404A
• Refrigerant charge: 250 kg
• Cooling capacity: 100 kW
• Energy consumption: 252,000 kWh/year
• Service life: 10 years
• GWP: 3920
• Operating time: 19 hours per day
• Recovery/recycling: 90%

CO₂ emissions from electricity production

Country A (fossil fuels): 0.8 kg CO₂ per kWh
Country B (hydro and wind power): 0.04 kg CO₂ per kWh

5.000 TEWI 5.000 TEWI

Country A: 250 kg R404A Country B: 250 kg R404A
4.000 4.000
5.000 5.000
kg CO2

kg CO2

3.000 3.000
4.000 4.000
2.000
3.000 2.000
3.000
1.000 1.000
2.000 2.000
0 0
1.000 0% 5% 10% 15% 1.000
0% 5% 10% 15%
0 Leakage rate (%) 0 Leakage rate (%)
0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Leakage rate (%) Leakage rate (%)

TEWI TEWI
Country A: 250 kg CO2 Country B: 250 kg CO2
5.000 5.000
kg CO2

kg CO2

4.000 4.000
5.000 5.000
3.000 3.000
4.000 4.000
2.000
3.000 2.000
3.000
1.000 1.000
2.000 2.000
0 0
1.000 1.000
0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15%
0 Leakage rate (%) 0 Leakage rate (%)
0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Leakage rate (%) Leakage rate (%)
Energy consumption Leakage Recovery/recycling

Figure 19: Relationship between the direct and indirect impacts of the refrigeration system

22 Refrigerant options now and in the future

Appendix 3.
History
Nearly two hundred years have passed since Jacob Perkins patented the vapor-
compression cycle, which began the history of refrigerants. The vapor-compression
cycle uses the refrigerant to transport heat from the cold side to the hot side of
a refrigeration system, heat pump, or air-conditioning system. We use the same
thermodynamic cycle today, though the refrigerants have changed.

Figure 1 shows the development of refrigerants since 1835. In the beginning,

all refrigerants were easily obtainable as they existed in nature or were already
used in industrial processes. By the 1930s, it became obvious that there were
critical safety issues involving many of these early refrigerants, including cases of
fires and poisoning caused by refrigerant leaks. It was at this time that synthetic
safety refrigerants called chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were invented and began
to be used on a global scale. Development of synthetic refrigerants continued in
the 1950s, when partially chlorinated refrigerants (hydrochlorofluorocarbons or
HCFCs) were introduced, including R22.

In the early 1970s, it was discovered that CFC and HCFC refrigerants caused a
breakdown of the ozone layer. CFCs have a particularly high ozone depleting potential
(ODP) and while HCFCs are comparatively lower in ODP, they still wreaked havoc.
As a consequence, the Montreal Protocol—the global phase-down mechanism on
substances that deplete the ozone layer—was established in 1987 and has since
been regarded as a global success on reducing dangerous chemicals. In addition to
reducing the ODP load in the atmosphere, the reduction of CFC emissions has also
considerably decreased the global-warming impact. Substitute refrigerants, called
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), have an ODP of zero, but medium to high global warming
potential (GWP) though still lower than phased-out CFCs. Due to the growing threat
of climate change, usage of HFCs has been scrutinized in an attempt to reduce their
impact on the environment. Scientific investigations show that while the impact
of HFC leaks may not currently be a major contributing factor to global warming,
their growing consumption, especially within air-conditioning units in developing
countries, will eventually make HFCs a top global-warming contributor if phase-down
measures were not introduced. In October 2016, the parties of the Montreal Protocol
agreed to a phase-down for HFCs. The phase-down came into effect in 2019 and will
help significantly reduce the use of high-GWP gases.

In summary, if we do not practice environmental stewardship, refrigerants may

cause severe, long-term environmental consequences. History has been a learning
curve away from the flammable and toxic refrigerants towards safe solutions,
but ones that were environmentally destructive, making them only short-term
solutions. Technological developments, together with recognized safety standards,
have finally made it possible to begin moving towards real long-term solutions
with zero ODP, low GWP refrigerants.

1987 1970
Montreal Protocol Discovery of the ozone
on CFC and HCFC depletion process
HCFC

Sustainable
Technologies:
1995 • Environmentally
Global warming benign
becomes an issue
• Safe in use
1930-50
Invention of
C
HFC

CF

• Affordable safe refrigerants

NATURALS NATURALS + HFO

1834 Growing need for 2015 2019 2022

Invention of the vapor safe refrigerants EU HFC Montreal Protocol Revision of the EU F-Gas
compression process. phase-down on HFCs regulation on HFCs
Natural refrigerants

Figure 1: The historical cycle of refrigerants

White paper 23
Solutions for today and
tomorrow
Intelligent solutions, combining natural, low-GWP refrigerants and high energy
efficiency, are the road to sustainable refrigeration and air conditioning. Danfoss
takes a proactive approach to further the development and use of low-GWP
refrigerants to help abate global warming and to ensure the competitiveness of
the industry.

Danfoss invests in the development of products for low-GWP refrigerants, both

natural and synthetic to fulfil customers’ needs for practical, safe and energy-
efficient solutions. Our product portfolio already offers a full program of control
components for CO₂, ammonia and hydrocarbons. The Danfoss product range
is constantly developed to offer state-of-the-art energy efficiency in every
component, from compressors to heat exchangers and everything in between.

Obtaining sustainable solutions is a fine balance between affordability, safety

and environmental concerns. Based on our long-standing, sustainable mindset
and our dedication to pioneering new technologies, we consciously pursue
new developments aimed to be a sustainable balance.

Scan here for a direct access to

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lower-GWP refrigerants

www.refrigerants.danfoss.com

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