Chapter 4 Finmar
Chapter 4 Finmar
Chapter 4 Finmar
Credit nsk is one type of business nsk. Thia is the ris't that ·the ~.>c.>rrowr.,r vr
able to ,repay ,ts obl1gat1on. Such risk is valuated as a factor to determine th(j ;.,~ ,
lending or financing using debt. Credit risk also affects the .:v- aluat,or1 of ar.,x~f.J· •n"J
receivable. , ~ , · "'~
"' t ...~ I,•
1
; J I
According to Fabozzi and Drake, there are two economic theories that drive; th
interest rates. These are loanable funds-theory and liquidity pr~ference theo~. Loana~
funds theory assumes that it is ideal to supply funds when the interests are high alid 'if"
versa. This theory was introduced by Knut Wicksell in 1900s. 1:6
On the other hand, liquidity preference theory was introduced by John Mayna,q
Keynes, that the interest rates are dependent on the preference of the household Wh!i!th~r
they hold or use it for investment. There by that the longer the term the higher the rate~
because investors pr_eferred the short-term investment more.
BSP defined interest rates to be a type of price. Interest are set to compensat: the
risk of allowing the finances to flow into the financial system. The interest as a pnce 15
different on the perspective of the lender or borrower. F.or tenders, interest rate i2. .call~,:,
as ~nding rate or return. For the borrowers, these will serve as cost of debt. Interest rates
were classified depending on the type of instrument they derived and the tenor of the
investment.
The ~ or of the investment also defines the riskiness of the repayment of debt
The longer the life of the debt the riskier the repayment hence the interest rate is higher
There are tvvo economic theories that affect the term structure of interest rate. These are
expectations theory and market segmentation theory .
• Expectation Theories
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Based on the current .
How will. . environme t h9
the interest rate be n · ,t market seems to worsen in the fut~re .
Company B must assum ha_ve in the future? With the given information,
Company A may pay in
be based on the stron
th:fit h,g~er rate than 7% since the probability that
. ure 15 becoming low. The pure expectations shall
r~tes to be agreed sho~l:~t~mates based on the uncertainty of the futu ~e. The
will not be fully comp reasonable enough for both parties otherwise one
ensated 0 .
that the pure expectations specially on_ the part of the lenders. Observed
factors. th eory only relies on the term and not on other
Biased Expectaf
affect tile term str t ion Theory includes that there are other factors that
moving forward. T~~ ~~e of th e loans .as well as the interest to be perc~ived
liqu idity of the bo rwa rd rates w,11 be affected or will be adjusted 1f the
or increase on ~~oew~r will be weak_ er or stronger in the future. The adju_s~e_nt
prem ium incr interest rate 1s called the liquidity premium. L1qu1d1ty
theory A t~ases as th0 maturity lengthens. This theory is called the liquidity
habitat
.
t;o th
er ~ory under the Biased Expectation Theory is the preferr_ed
eory. This theory does not only consider the liquidity but the risk
premium as well but disregarding the consensus of the market on the future
intere st rates. The habitat being referred here is the biased estimate over the
market beha vior in the future
This theory assumes that the driver of the interest rates are the savings
and investment flows. The maturities are segmented depending on how the
assets and liabilities were managed as well as the lenders on how they extend
fi nancing. It is the same with preferred habitat theory however it does nol
assume that any of the players are willing to shift. sector should opportunity to
ari se for the asset or liabilities to be retired or lenders to offer higher rates.
I -:: interest . .. )
. k, rate where {Real nsk free rate = Rf - inflation
R, = ns 1ree k .
. bt 1argIn or debt spread or the ris premium
dt~ · 11
Om= 1
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--- ·- -- -- -- -- -- - ma~ ioro do1au'• r. tt-,, mar. ..tJt "r.1w
n .o rt· It: rt\1 mto &hovld tho rate fha: as$u Hence . n0rlll ilj , "
o t1eu1<J by thg ,;overotgr.
th ru n 010 or lea, equ va unt to the rntoo
o tjy tho ror., ,rhc-;.1n the Ph •t1P Plflet •t i ~
o' ho riSk..frao ,-at.-a the 1 reas ury ollls ssuo ~·
nf:"to bo re1er'fcd 1n tho Ph,ftcpinc Oon 'rng Sys
tems or: POS Groop
The POS Group ,s an..organized r"'au n f:h~
. 1 n.c,.7 Yr.
Pom t of fnfo rma tion r 'OtmM out 0 • the f.na nca~ I ,s PSS lfl
d tr -:1"';) Us r" ,~
4
Rrr = 6% - 2%
Rrr ::::: 4%
i;;;:: 7% + 4%
i = 11 %
. .
Ther~for~, th~ inte rest rate that Ob the
question Is will this be acce t ble eron Financing should charge Morg an is 11 !>!,_ Now
· be d.1ffere nt to the borro Pa to Morg ana corporat,on? The assessment then aga1r
will tr' the future
that the inte rest will go wor t~r. Morgana should cons ider if their assessment
1 th
then 11 % is a good offer . Suppose , another
financing compan y is offer" e ; 0 ethlong term a
~na should reconsider. In addition, Morgan
Corporat ion in the long ru~:gh 1/o en Morg ld
~der that the interest cost on their end wou
also result to tax ben efits if ho~ld also cons considered as a tax-deducbb le expense .
' t e interest cost 1s
Another way on how to cal Iat e the .1_ nterest rate is by the function of the market
valu e.
par value and the 1. t cu
t deb t securities or bond s. Eq 5.2 pres ents the
formula suggested ~0edreS ex~ense ~aid by .
etermme the interest rate on debt securities
I+ ( V - M)
Eq 5.2 i = V+~ x 100%
- 2-
, - 200 ,
. 100 + ( 2t) "j 0
l = Z,2 QQ X 1001/o
-z
100 - 10
i = - - - x l 00%
1,100
129 ;
i = 0.0818 X 100% = 8.18%
The interest rate in the market is 8.18% which is lower than the nominal rat
10% for the Merlin Bonds. This means that the same bonds are perceived to be riski: Cf
the market as compared to the nominal rate. But what if the bonds were SOid r 1n
O
_premium? Note tha! the market value of the bond is Php1 ,200 hence there is a pr801 ~~
on the Php1,000 par value of Php200. This is because the bonds ~re guaranteed by Merli
Corporation to earn 10% interest while the market can only provide about 200 bps lowe~
than market.
On the other hand, the bond sold at a discount expects that the nominal rate of the
instrument or bond of the same class is lower than the market. Assume that Meni
Corporation issued Php1 ,000 par value bonds paying Php100 interest every year for ~
2
years where their bonds were sold at Php950. How much is the rate of cost of debt in the
market?
It can be noted that the difference this time is that the interest is given at Php100 and the
bonds market value is Php950 lower than the par value of Php1 ,000, therefore there is a
discount. The same problem can be solve using Eq 5.2
50
100 + ( )
I , i = 1,950
20 x lOOo/c
°
-r
100 + 2.50
i = l gSQ X 100%
I
. In commerce, r!sk is a very important factor to consider that may drives the
business up or down. ~,~k relates to the volatility of return patterns in the business. Thus,
the challenge on quantifying the risk is imperative for the investors to be able to determine
130 I
- FUNDAME NTALS Of FINANCIAL MARKET
hOW much they can keep th
. 9 tra t· ernselves wh I
?
financin h nsac ion • Thesa are defa It e. There are risks that are inherent in every
among ot ers. · u nsk, liquidity risk , legal risks, and market nsks,
Legal risk is dependent on the covenants set and agreed in betw6en che
lenders and the borrowers. The legal risk will arise only upon the ability of any of
the parties to comply with the covenants of the contract. Normany, the burden is to
the borrower to comply given that the party who is obliged to pay back is them.
The common defaults in the covenants are as follows: (1) maintaining the financial
ratios; (2) significant acquisition or disposal of assets; (3) repayment of other
obligation; or (4) declaration of dividends of any form without the consent of the
lenders.
Market risk is the impact of the market drivers to the ability of the borrowers
to settle the obligation. Market risk is classified as a systematic risk because it
arises from external forces or based on the movement of t~e industry. Am.ong the
risks that affects the interest, market risk is the most difficult to q~ant1fy. The
experts and analysts can just only set certain parameters to measure 1t.
131 l
~~i
, .
inverted or dechntnQor flat or constant over time . figu re 5.1 pre'.sents the tra}ecto
'
ry Or
possibJe yteld ct1rves
Flat or Constont
inwrtl!d or o,«reasmg
1'
►
~
Q.)
CJ
____
.,....
t,
~
~
Time Time
Spot Rates
The yield curves presented in Figure 5.1 was a set ~f poin
ts of rate~ on a
particular maturity date . In a normal yield curve, most theo
nes expe_ct th at interest rates
increasing as the maturity lengthens . Although on the othe
r ~and,_y,e~d curve m~y
change or move drfferently as expected especially when
the inflation _,s decr~asmg , or
the purchasing power is improving. Spot rate is the
interest rate or yield available /
applicable for a particular time .
Spot rates are already _actual rates and are not hedge. Whe
n the agreement isa
spot rate the applicable interest rate is based on the prev
aiting market rate at the
parti.cular time . It is important to know the spot rates to be
used for estabHshing market
expectation in the future. Spot rates will be used to mitig
ate the risk by refecling to
historical yield vis-a-vis the forces that occur in those time
s. For examptG typhoon
occurred in the Metro Manila that causes the prices of the
resources to rise because of
the scarcity of resources resulting to increase in interest
rates. Upon noting the effect on
the spot rates of the external forces, we will expect in the
future that when such incident
will recur the spot rates will increase. Thus, it is incumbe
nt to the supplier of funds to
consider quantifying its effect so that the variability of rates
will be managed .
Forward Rates
Credit Ratings
. and factors initially identified, another driver of
it rating affects the
Aside from the purc~asrng_ power the credit ratings. Cred
anies. The credit ratings are
the interest rate or risk cons ideration aret . s or comp
objectively assigns or
confidence level of the investors to coun r~e d globally that
ess of doing business with th~m .
determined by companies that a~e recognize the riskin
ge their liquidity and solvency rn
evaluates countries and companies b~se!-~~ to mana
their a , ,tyhe default risk associated to the country or
The riskiness is primarily driven dby the lower
the long run. The higher the gra e
133 l
-------------------- --- -----..;···'-1RL
. '
pany. These three major r~ting com~arnes a~e: Sta ndard & Poor s Corporation
com_
~
(S&P); Moody's Investors Service; and Fitch Ratings.
Although, the credit ratings provided by these compani~s are just
recommendatory opinion and will serve ~s reference only and 15 not an absolutely
provide default probability to the companies.
BB Less vulnerable in the near-tenn but faces major ongoing uncertainties to advers
b .
usiness, financial and economic conditions
e -
B More vulnerable to adverse busi~ess, financial and economic conditions but currently has
the capacity to meet financial commitments
fJ)
"C
CCC Currently vulnerable and dependent
.. •
on favorable business , financial and economic (I)
Cl
conditions to meet financial commitments C
iiie
cc Highly vulnerable, default has not yet occurred , but expected to be a v1·rtu a1certainty
.
<
(I)
Cl
C al
. ' and ultimate reco very ·is expected to be lower
Currently highly vulnerable to non-payment C.
(D
than that of higher rated obligations
D Payment default on a financial commitment or breach of .
when a bankruptcy petition has been filed or s~~;~~~~~i~i;~;ise;en.
also used
134 !
,,..,.,,,-,-- ----!, _UNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL MARKET
. . .
4 ooo f1nanc1al institutions Th e co
than world.1
, le mpany em I
•
- ·
Obligations rated C are the lowest rated an d are typically
C of principal or interest. m default, with little prospect for recove ry
Fitch Ratings
The third credit rating agency is Fitch Ratings. It was founded
in 191 4 in New
information and
York, USA. The company was owned by Hearst. Hearst is a global
expectations based
services company. Fitch provides credit opinions based on the credit
ny, they assess
on the certain quantitative and qualitative factors that drive a compa
assessment
based on the credit analysis and intensive resea rch . They condu ct their
curren cies.
over more than 8 000 entities around the globe with 25 different
I
Fitch same with the other rating agencies publishes its opinion
based on a
ts the rating
certain scale of rating s to represents their opinion. Table 5.3 presen
5
definition of Fitch Ratings ,
4
}.l&w.moody.;.rnm
5
OYiP. .'fJ.Lw1r,; w.fitchr2ti ngs,con1/siteLEf..tlW1tionJ 135 I
~UNO,\Mf N1Al~ OF f lNANCIAL f.A,
Vj$' ~,(f
~--
Table 5.3 Fi1ch Rating Scale
88 Speculative
B Highly speculative
C Near default
RD Restricted Default
D Default
6
b...t:IB)://www.dbr s.com/about/
I '--~ -~ ~
~O~FJF~IN~.A~N~C~IA~L~M~A~R;_K£_~T
~ , _ . .- - - - - - - - - - - - -!F~U~ND~A~M~E~N~T~A~LS
suMMARY
· to
one of the challenges in finan · 15 ensure the ability of the borro~e~s .
• rtle the obligation Th . ~ing t~
se . · e nsk involve 1n financing are·· defau lt risk, liq uidity
risk, and mark et nsk among others .
is affected by the
• It i~ . th_~oretically assumed that the cost of finan cing
ava1lab1llty of loanable funds which is the Loanable Fund
s Theory and the
th the higher the rate
maturity of e loans , where the longer the life of the loans
is Liquidity Prefe rence Theory.
rd rates or enter
• In order to mitigate the risk, most businesses hedge forwa
wers and lenders ~o
into a swap rate agreement. It is important for the borro
and employ certain
know what the spot rate in the prevailing market is
expectations in the future .
~
137 I