Earthquake Energy Rise

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NU Journal of Discovery, May 2008, http://nujournal.net/EarthquakeEnergyRise.

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Earthquake Energy Rise on Earth


Tom J. Chalko, MSc, PhD
Head of Geophysics Division, Scientific E Research P/L, Mt Best, Vic 3960, Australia

Abstract For practical purposes it is convenient to


calculate the annual earthquake energy ratio
This article presents a method of monitoring ηK, relative to the year when reasonably
earthquake activity on the planetary scale accurate earthquake records began. In the case
using the data of all individual earthquakes on of the USGS earthquake database, the
Earth since 1973, available from US “reference year” is 1973.
Geological Survey (USGS) [4]. The method
reveals that in recent years the annual
∑K 101.5M i
(3)
∑101.5M i
ηK =
earthquake energy on Earth has increased five
times and that its trend is to grow in the future. 1973
The annual earthquake energy ratio ηK is
Introduction independent of the arbitrary constant A.

Earthquakes on Earth are reported and Rising Earthquake energy on Earth


classified using a logarithmic scale, such as the
Richter-scale magnitude. The plot of ηK for the period 1973 to 2007
computed from all 257,509 earthquakes of
Using the logarithmic quake data statistics it is magnitude 4.0 and above in the USGS quake
difficult to monitor trends and detect changes database is presented in Fig 1. The plot
in seismic activity on Earth. demonstrates that the energy of large quakes
(7.0M and above) grows faster in time than
This article presents a method of monitoring energy of quakes above 4.0M. (see [5] for
seismic activity on Earth on the basis of the details). The year 2008 is omitted because at
accumulated annual energy of all observed the time of writing of this article the year 2008
earthquakes. has not finished and the author prefers to avoid
extrapolations.
Earthquake energy
Annual earthquake energy on Earth
Energy E of an earthquake can be estimated relative to 1973 ( from USGS data)
Observed energy
from its magnitude M as follows [1]: 16 7.0M and above
E = 10 ( c +1.5 M ) = A 101.5 M (1) 14 Trend 7.0M and
above
Where A=10c is a constant. Traditionally c is 12
Observed energy
chosen in such a way that the energy of an 10 4.0M and above
earthquake of the magnitude 4.0 matches the 8 Trend 4.0M and
energy of exploding 1 kiloton of the TNT 6
above
explosive. [2] 4
Observed energy
below 7.0M
2
The accumulated energy of all earthquakes in 0
a year K can be computed by adding the 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
energy values of all earthquakes during that year
year.
E K = A∑ 101.5 M i (2) Fig 1. History of the annual earthquake energy ratio ηK
K in the period 1973 - 2007, computed from the USGS
earthquake database in cooperation with A.Soderlund
NU Journal of Discovery, May 2008, http://nujournal.net/EarthquakeEnergyRise.pdf 2

Fig 1 demonstrates that the annual earthquake demonstrate that the behavior of the Real
energy of large quakes has increased about 6 Planet is exactly the opposite. Something must
times in recent years and that it has a tendency be fundamentally wrong with the currently
to grow in the future. It also shows that smaller adopted planetary interior theories. One of the
quakes (<7.0M) become increasingly most plausible explanations for the systematic
insignificant, which indicates a systematic increase in seismic/tectonic activity is
change to the fundamental mechanism of the overheating of the planetary interior.
seismic activity on Earth.
NASA measurements form space confirm [3]
The result presented above is not theoretical. It that Earth as a whole absorbs more energy
represents the Observed Reality, because it is from the Sun than it is able to radiate back to
computed directly from accurate and cross- space. Hansen et all state [3] that this energy
verified seismic records kept at USGS. imbalance is 0.85 ± 0.15 Megawatts per square
kilometre. This is not a theory - it is an
Conclusions observable fact [3], just like earthquakes.

The observed 5-fold increase in annual Since Earth absorbs more energy than it can
earthquake energy in the period 1980-2007 radiate, the whole planet overheats, not just the
and the rapidly increasing trend are alarming. atmosphere.

Results presented in this article indicate that Specifically, the heat that is generated in the
the main danger for humanity on Earth may planetary interior (as a result of decay of all
come not from a slow climate change, but radioactive isotopes there) is trapped and the
from the rapidly increasing seismic/tectonic planetary interior temperatures rise. The
activity. overheating occurs because the only way for
the radionic heat to escape from the planetary
In the period of time when the planetary interior is through the surface, but the surface
climate changed by a small fraction of one receives more energy than it is able to radiate
degree, earthquakes have become 5 times away.
more energetic. How long do we need to wait
until someone brings this problem to our Planetary interior overheating is the most
awareness? serious consequence of so-called “global
warming” and constitutes the main danger for
Awareness of the problem is essential not only humanity on Earth today.
to explain the reason for the observed
phenomenon but also to consider possible References
solutions. [1] J. Louie, What is Richter Magnitude? Class materials of
University of Nevada, Reno, 9 Oct. 1996,
http://www.seismo.unr.edu/ftp/pub/louie/class/100/magni
What could be a reason for the observed 5-fold tude.html
increase in annual earthquake energy? [2] Richter magnitude scale, Wikipedia,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richter_magnitude_scale
[3] Hansen, J., L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, Mki. Sato, J. Willis,
According to the currently adopted dogmas the A. Del Genio, D. Koch, A. Lacis, K. Lo, S. Menon, T.
planetary interior “crystallizes” in time and Tovakov, Ju. Perlwitz, G. Russell, G.A. Schmidt, and N.
Tausnev 2005. Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation
hence becomes more solid. Motion of tectonic and implications. Science 308, no. 5727, pp 1431-1435,
plates should therefore become slower and the 2005 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1110252
associated seismic activity should not increase [4] USGS http://earthquake.usgs.gov/
[5] Chalko T. Quake Energy Monitor software, 2008,
in time. http://nujournal.net/quakes.rar

And yet, historic earthquake energy


observations presented above in this article

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