Worked Example: W1 Public Transport

1.2 New fixed track facility

May 2018
This publication was prepared by the Australian
Transport Assessment and Planning (ATAP) Steering
Committee and approved by the Transport and
Infrastructure Senior Officials' Committee. The
Committees cannot accept responsibility for any
consequences arising from the use of this information.
Readers should rely on their own skill and judgment
when applying any information or analysis to particular
issues or circumstances.

ISBN: 978-1-925701-33-3 INFRA- 3582

© Commonwealth of Australia 2018

May 2018

For enquiries or feedback about this publication please

contact:
ATAP Steering Committee Secretariat
Australian Transport Assessment and Planning
Guidelines
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Development and Cities
GPO Box 594 CANBERRA ACT 2601
Email: [email protected]

This publication is available from the website atap.gov.au

 Worked Example: W1 Public Transport
1.2 New fixed track facility

Contents
1. Problem description .............................................................................................................................1

2. Options ..................................................................................................................................................1

3. Benefits and costs ................................................................................................................................1

4. Inputs and assumptions ......................................................................................................................2

4.1 General ..........................................................................................................................................2
4.2 Travel demand ..............................................................................................................................4
4.3 Benefits..........................................................................................................................................5

5. Benefit and cost time streams ............................................................................................................6

6. Results summary ..................................................................................................................................9

7. Results discussion ............................................................................................................................ 10

8. Supporting calculations and formulas ............................................................................................ 10

References ............................................................................................................................................... 11

Figures

Figure 1 Total benefits time stream ..........................................................................................................8

Figure 2 Total costs time stream ...............................................................................................................8
Figure 3 Net benefits time stream .............................................................................................................8

Tables

Table 1 Monetised and non-monetised benefits and costs .....................................................................2

Table 2 Benefit and cost time streams ....................................................................................................7
Table 3 Discounted benefit and cost results – Central assessment (7% discount rate, input
value best estimates) ..................................................................................................................9
Table 4 Sensitivity testing results ......................................................................................................... 10

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 Worked Example: W1 Public Transport
1.2 New fixed track facility

1. Problem description
This case study illustrates the economic appraisal of a proposal to develop a new fixed track facility such as
a train or LRT line or a busway with a dedicated right of way. The new facility will be in a corridor currently
served by on-street bus services. The case study illustrates the range of cost and benefits that should be
considered, the basis for each category of cost and benefit, and the interpretation of the data on costs and
benefits.

2. Options
A single Project Case option is considered relative to the Base Case.

The Project Case option was identified in prior assessment as having high potential of strategic alignment
and rapid appraisal of a number of options. Other high potential options can also be appraised in a similar
manner to the option considered here.

Base Case

Option 0: Do minimum: The Base Case is a ‘do minimum’ option in which the quality of on-street bus
service in the first year of the appraisal period is maintained. Even with a small amount of bus priority that
could be implemented, this requires additional buses (and associated bus-hours and bus-km of service)
to accommodate modest growth in patronage associated with rising population and to respond to
increasing traffic congestion that will reduce average bus travel speed. There are no opportunities for an
alternate scheme with somewhat more substantial investment that could provide a reasonable alternative
Base Case.

Project Case options

Option 1: New fixed track facility (train, LRT or busway)

3. Benefits and costs

Table 1 lists the benefits and costs and whether they have been monetised in this worked example.

The initiative is expected to lead to the following impacts (all incremental from the Base Case to the Project
Case):
 Ongoing costs for maintenance of the fixed infrastructure and for changes in the cost of providing public
transport service
 Reduced travel time for existing public transport users and those that shift from cars to public transport
 Reduced travel time for remaining road users due to the mode shift from car to public transport, and the
shift of public transport services from on-road operation to its own right-of-way
 A reduced need for car ownership and car parking due to the shift of some former car drives to public
transport
 Reduced road crashes and environmental costs due to reduced car use from the shift to public transport
after also allowing for crash costs and environmental costs that result from providing a larger quantity of
public transport

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 Worked Example: W1 Public Transport
1.2 New fixed track facility

 Some disruption to road traffic during construction of the initiative.

Travel time disbenefits may be incurred by cars, trucks and remaining on-road buses due to reduced lanes
or space availability if the new fixed track or facility is integrated into the existing road layout without
expanding or widening. If this impact applied, it would flow through to the cost-benefit analysis as a
monetised disbenefits to non-public transport users.

Table 1 Monetised and non-monetised benefits and costs

Monetised Non-monetised

Benefits

Travel time savings for public transport users 

Travel, car and parking savings for car users who shift

to public transport

Travel time savings for remaining road users 

Safety and environmental benefits 
Residual value 
Disruption during construction (disbenefit) 
Costs

Fixed infrastructure costs 

Operating and maintenance costs 

4. Inputs and assumptions

4.1 General
Base year and price year: Prices are in mid-2014 prices and are discounted to a base year of 2015.

Real discount rate: 7% for the main central analysis, with sensitivity tests of 4% and 10%.

Construction period years: 4 years – 2016 to 2019.

Operations to commence in 2020.

Investment cost:

All costs in the appraisal are incremental to the Base Case – practitioners are encouraged to also show Base
Case and Project Case numbers used to calculate the incremental change between the two cases:
 Fixed infrastructure: $635 million
 Public transport fleet: $95m in 2019, and a total of $121m during the remainder of the appraisal period
(some of which are reinvestments as discussed below)
 Land (resale of excess land): minus $28m in 2020.

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 Worked Example: W1 Public Transport
1.2 New fixed track facility

Fixed assets

The initiative involves expenditure on land and fixed infrastructure such as earthworks, track, stations, power
and other control systems as needed. It also requires design and project management services.

The initiative requires the purchase of some large allotments of land due to the shape of the allotments and a
need for some space to accommodate site offices and construction equipment. Much of this land can be sold
at a premium upon completion of the construction when it is no longer needed and has higher value due to
its proximity to public transport stations. Hence, there is a large negative cost in the year that follows
completion of capital works (2020).

Public transport fleet

An initial fleet of new public transport vehicles is to be purchased for the initiative. (If the initiative was a
busway, a new fleet of dedicated buses would be purchased, with none of the on-street buses used to
provide services in the corridor being suitable for use on the busway.) This fleet is purchased in the year
prior to initiative completion (2019). It is estimated that fewer of the current on-street buses will be needed in
the corridor with the initiative, with account for the remaining value of the redundant buses included in the
appraisal – the buses can be used elsewhere in the public transport system, and the avoided cost attributed
to the current initiative is therefore based on the residual value of the buses. There will also be an avoided
need in the Project Case to purchase additional buses that would have been needed to accommodate small
rising patronage in the corridor in the absence of the initiative.

Over the appraisal period there is an occasional need to purchase additional vehicles for the new facility to
accommodate growth in patronage and to replace vehicles that may reach the end of their economic life
during the appraisal period (though the latter will generally only occur in the case of a busway). Hence,
additional capital costs are incurred following initial implementation of the initiative.

Asset (economic) life:

Fixed assets

Ten categories of asset with lives that range from 15 years for items such as signalling to infinite to items
such as land.

Public transport vehicles

Depends on the mode chosen. For a busway, the life of buses is typically 20 years.

Appraisal period: The implementation period (4 years) plus 30 years of operation.

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 Worked Example: W1 Public Transport
1.2 New fixed track facility

Reinvestment:

The economic life of both some of the fixed assets and the public transport vehicles is less than the 30 years
of operation in the appraisal period, and so there is a need for periodic re-investment in these assets. For
fixed assets, this expenditure is included in the ‘Fixed infrastructure maintenance and replacement’ column
in Table 2, and is described in more detail below.

Residual value methodology: A residual value was calculated for any asset with part of its economic life
remaining at the end of the appraisal period. The straight line depreciation method was adopted using the
following formula:

Asset Life Remaining After Evaluation Period

Residual Value (Straight Line Depreciation) = Capital cost ×
Asset Life

Residual values are included as benefits in the last year of the appraisal period (2049).

The resulting residual values were $387m.

Fixed infrastructure maintenance and replacement:

Fixed infrastructure requires routine and periodic maintenance. The economic lives of some assets will come
to an end during the appraisal period and will require replacement. Estimated expenditure for these items
has been based on specific engineering estimates of the cost of routine maintenance and the cost and
intervals for periodic maintenance.

Public transport operations:

Public transport operating costs have been based on the default values set out in the Guidelines (i.e. based
on estimates of the number of each mode of public transport vehicle, and the distance travelled and hours of
use of each vehicle in the Project Case relative to the Base Case). The cost of periodic rehabilitation
(i.e. mid-life refurbishment) of public transport vehicles, based on an average annualised cost, is also
included in this column in Table 2.

4.2 Travel demand

The estimation of travel demand effects, and benefits, of the initiative have been based on data obtained
from a computerised travel demand model. The model assessed conditions with and without the proposed
initiative for an average working weekday for 2018, 2023 and 2033. The model held the total number of trips
per day constant but allowed the mode of travel (which included walking, private vehicle drivers and,
separately, passengers, public transport and freight), destination and route of trips to change. The model
also estimated changes in the kilometres of travel for each transport mode. For the new public transport
facility, the model indicated the former mode of travel in the base case.

Growth rates: As reflected in the travel demand model outputs

Benefits are estimated for 2018, 2023 and 2033. Data for intermediate years is based on a constant
percentage growth, with values after 2027 based on extrapolation. Note that this is a simplification in that if
demand continues to grow, crowding disbenefits would need to be accounted for as capacity was
approached and reached.

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 Worked Example: W1 Public Transport
1.2 New fixed track facility

4.3 Benefits
The benefits of the initiative were calculated using data from a computerised travel demand model. The
model assessed conditions with and without the proposed initiative for 2018, 2023 and 2033. The values for
each category of benefit for intermediate years were derived using a constant average annual growth rate
between the modelled years.

Given that the new facility is in a corridor currently served by public transport, ramp-up in the shift in travel
demand is expected to be rapid though still present. Ramp up cannot be addressed through modelling and
was therefore based on a consensus view that benefits in the first year of operation will be two-thirds of the
benefit estimated by interpolation to allow for this effect. Benefits after 2033 were assumed to grow at
three-quarters of the rate in the preceding period to reflect the potential for slowing population growth in the
catchment area of the initiative.

Travel choices in the model have been based on the perceived cost of travel. Perceived user benefits
(i.e. consumer surplus changes) were calculated for each origin-destination pair in the model by mode of
travel and then aggregated by model of travel. Unperceived direct travel benefits were taken into account
through resource corrections – reported in the ‘reduced unperceived car operating costs’ column in Table 2.
Other benefits, including savings in car ownership, parking, safety and environment, were based on travel
demand data from the model.

Perceived user benefits – car and public transport users

The calculation of benefits perceived by travellers was based on origin-destination matrix data extracted from
the computerised travel demand model. Specifically, the change in consumer surplus for a given mode was
estimated based on the difference in the quantity of travel and the perceived cost of travel between the Base
Case and Project Case for each origin-destination pair in the travel demand model using the rule-of-a-half to
take account of changes in the number of trips. That is:

User benefit = 0.5 * (TripsPC – TripsBC ) * (Perceived travel costBC – Perceived travel costPC)

where BC and PC denote Base Case and Project Case respectively.

This was done separately for public transport users, car users and travel by commercial vehicles. The
benefits to car users who remain on the road system in the Project Case is shown in the column titled
Perceived User Benefits: Car users. It reflects the road decongestion that occurs as a result of a shift of
some car users in the Base Case to public transport in the Project Case. The benefits to those who use
public transport in the Project Case (i.e. including those who transfer from the current on-street bus system
to the new facility, those who remain on the current on-street bus system, and those who shift from car and
walking to public transport) are shown in the next column in Table 2 (i.e. the column titled Perceived User
Benefits: Public transport users). Benefits accruing to freight vehicles is included in a later column of Table 2.

Reduced car ownership and parking costs

The shift from car to public transport is expected to allow some people to avoid the need to own cars. The
benefit has been calculated using the approach set out in Part M1 of the ATAP Guidelines. That is:

 The number of two-way trips that former car drivers make on public transport with the initiative, multiplied
by
 The sum of (the one-off benefit of an avoided need to own a car and the one-off benefit of an avoided car
park). The one-off benefit to each car driver attracted to public transport of an avoided need to own a car
and the associated avoided car park occurs for each year of the appraisal period, reflecting that the
number of car drivers attracted to the new facility rises over time due to rising traffic congestion.

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 Worked Example: W1 Public Transport
1.2 New fixed track facility

Increase in public transport fare revenue

The literature provides two explanations for this benefit:

 In the traditional economic literature, it is explained as a benefit to the service provider. The increase in
revenue, minus the increase in operating costs, combine to produce an increase in ‘producer surplus’ (IA
2017).
 Another explanation is provided by the public transport literature where it is referred to as a resource
correction benefit. This is needed because the fare is necessarily included in the perceived cost of travel
by public transport users in the computerised travel demand model—public transport users treat it as a
cost when considering whether to move to public transport and it thus reduces the resource benefit
estimated previously for these users. The benefit is based on the increase in fare revenue in the Project
Case relative to the Base Case.

Reduced environmental costs

Reduced environmental costs have been estimated based on changes in vehicle-km of travel by type of
vehicle and road, and default values for unit environmental costs such as those indicated in the Part PV5 of
the ATAP Guidelines.

Reduced accident costs

Reduced accident costs also result from changes in vehicle-km of travel by type of vehicle and road. The
benefit is based on default unit crash cost values such as those indicated in the Part PV2 of the ATAP
Guidelines.

Disruption during construction (disbenefit)

Disruption to road traffic is expected to occur during construction of the initiative. The size of this disbenefit
has been estimated based on the increase in travel time expected to result from the closure of some lanes
for certain periods and the value of time of car, public transport users and freight vehicles. The change in
travel time has been estimated using the computerised travel demand model through a reduction in the
capacity of affected road links.

5. Benefit and cost time streams

The annual monetised benefit and cost time streams are shown in Table 2 and Figures 1 to 3.

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 Worked Example: W1 Public Transport
1.2 New fixed track facility

Table 2 Benefit and cost time streams

Costs ($m)(1) Benefits ($)
Perceived user
Capital cost Ongoing costs(2) benefits Other benefits
Fixed Public Fixed Public Car Public Reduced Reduced car Reduced Increase Reduced Reduced Disruption Residual Total
assets transport infra- transport users transport unperceived ownership & commercia in public environ- accident during value
fleet structure operatio users car operating parking l vehicle transport mental costs constructio Net
mainte- ns costs costs travel fare costs n benefit
Net cost
Year nance costs revenue ($m)
2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2016 54 0 0 0 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -54
2017 216 0 0 0 216 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -12 0 -12 -228
2018 274 0 0 0 274 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -28 0 -28 -302
2019 91 95 0 0 186 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 0 -4 -191
2020 -28 0 0 9 -18 2 7 5 2 1 5 1 1 0 0 25 43
2021 0 0 2 9 11 4 10 8 3 1 8 2 2 0 0 38 27
2022 0 0 2 9 11 5 14 8 4 2 9 2 2 0 0 47 36
2023 0 0 2 9 11 7 20 9 5 2 10 2 2 0 0 58 47
2024 0 0 2 9 11 7 22 9 5 3 10 2 2 0 0 61 50
2025 0 0 2 9 11 7 23 9 5 3 11 2 3 0 0 63 52
2026 0 0 9 10 19 8 25 10 5 3 11 3 3 0 0 66 47
2027 0 0 2 9 11 8 27 10 5 3 11 3 3 0 0 69 58
2028 0 0 2 9 11 8 29 10 5 3 12 3 3 0 0 72 61
2029 0 39 2 12 52 9 31 10 6 3 12 3 3 0 0 76 24
2030 0 0 2 12 14 9 33 10 6 3 12 3 3 0 0 79 66
2031 0 0 15 15 30 9 35 11 6 4 13 3 3 0 0 83 53
2032 0 0 2 12 14 10 38 11 6 4 13 3 3 0 0 87 73
2033 0 0 2 12 14 10 51 11 6 4 14 3 3 0 0 102 88
2034 0 73 2 16 91 10 55 11 7 4 14 3 3 0 0 107 16
2035 0 0 2 16 17 11 59 12 7 4 14 3 3 0 0 112 95
2036 0 0 9 20 29 11 63 12 7 4 15 3 3 0 0 117 89
2037 0 0 2 16 17 11 67 12 7 5 15 3 3 0 0 123 106
2038 0 0 2 16 17 12 72 12 7 5 15 3 3 0 0 129 112
2039 0 9 2 17 27 12 78 12 7 5 16 3 3 0 0 136 108
2040 0 0 2 17 19 12 83 12 7 5 16 3 3 0 0 143 124
2041 0 0 43 21 64 13 89 13 8 5 16 3 3 0 0 150 86
2042 0 0 2 17 19 13 95 13 8 6 17 3 3 0 0 158 139
2043 0 0 2 17 19 14 102 13 8 6 17 3 4 0 0 166 148
2044 0 0 2 17 19 14 110 13 8 6 18 3 4 0 0 175 156
2045 0 0 2 17 19 14 118 13 8 6 18 3 4 0 0 185 166
2046 0 0 11 22 33 15 126 14 9 6 19 3 4 0 0 195 161
2047 0 0 2 17 19 15 135 14 9 7 19 3 4 0 0 206 187
2048 0 0 2 17 19 16 145 14 9 7 19 3 4 0 0 217 198
2049 0 0 2 17 19 16 155 14 9 7 20 3 4 0 387 616 597
PV (3)
Share 67% 14% 4% 15% 100% 10% 49% 12% 6% 4% 14% 3% 3% -4% 5% 100%
Notes: (1) All figures (except share) are in undiscounted $m units, expect for the PV row which shows discounted values. (2) Includes periodic maintenance/refurbishment. (3) Present value using a discount rate of 7%.

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 Worked Example: W1 Public Transport
1.2 New fixed track facility

Figure 1 Total benefits time stream

700
Benefits - undiscounted
600 Benefits - discounted

500

400
$ million

300

200

100

0
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
-100

Year

Figure 2 Total costs time stream

300
Costs - undiscounted
Costs - discounted
250

200

150
$ million

100

50

0
2016 2021 2026 2031
Year 2036 2041 2046
-50

Figure 3 Net benefits time stream

200
Annual Net Benefits - discounted
100 Cumulative Net Benefits - discounted

0
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
-100
$ million

-200 Year
-300

-400

-500

-600

-700
 Worked Example: W1 Public Transport
1.2 New fixed track facility

6. Results summary
Table 3 Discounted benefit and cost results – Central assessment (7% discount rate, input value best estimates)

Benefits, $m
Perceived user benefits:
Car users 80
Public transport users 401
Reduced unperceived car operating costs 95
Reduced car ownership & parking costs 52
Reduced commercial vehicle travel costs 31
Increase in public transport fare revenue 113
Reduced environmental costs 23
Reduced accident costs 25
Disruption during construction -37
Residual value 39

Costs, $m
Fixed infrastructure capital costs 513
Fixed infrastructure operating and maintenance costs 110
Incremental bus capital costs 32
Incremental bus operating and maintenance costs 117
Results

PVB, $m 823
PVIC, $m 545
PVOC, $m 226
PVC = PVIC + PVOC 771
NPV = PVB – PVC 52
BCR1 = PVB / PVC 1.07
BCR2 = (PVB – PVOC) / PVIC 1.10
FYRR 3.5%

Table notes:

1. All figures are $ million present value except for BCR and FYRR. All benefit and cost components are calculated as
the incremental change between Base Case and Project (Option) Case

2. PV stands for present value; PVB is the PV of economic, social and environmental benefits, includes residual value,
and excludes operating and maintenance costs; PVOC is the PV of operating and maintenance costs; PVIC is the
PV of investment (i.e. capital) costs

3. BCR definitions BCR1 and BCR2 are both used by Australian jurisdictions – see ATAP Part T2 section 10.
 Worked Example: W1 Public Transport
1.2 New fixed track facility

Table 4 Sensitivity testing results

PVB PVIC PVOC NPV BCR1 BCR2 IRR FYRR

Central assessment (7% discount
823 545 226 52 1.07 1.10 7.5% 3.5%
rate, input value best estimates)
Sensitivity Tests (4)
1. Use a discount rate of 4% 1511 606 336 570 1.61 1.94 7.5% 3.8%
2. Use a discount rate of 10% 481 498 163 -181 0.73 0.64 7.5% 3.3%
3. Increase capital costs by 25% 823 681 226 -84 0.91 0.88 9.3% 2.8%
4. Decrease capital costs by 5% 823 518 226 80 1.11 1.15 12.7% 3.7%
5. Increase O&M costs by 10% 823 545 249 30 1.04 1.05 11.7% 3.4%
6. Decrease O&M costs by 10% 823 545 204 75 1.10 1.14 12.3% 3.7%
7. Increase benefits by 10% 906 545 226 135 1.17 1.25 10.4% 4.0%
8. Reduce benefits by 25% 618 545 226 -154 0.80 0.72 7.7% 2.4%

Table notes:

1. The asymmetric changes reflect a common tendency for the cost of initiatives to be higher than expected and the
benefits to be less than expected

7. Results discussion
The results in Tables 3 and 4 show the initiative:
 Is economically justified in the central analysis (7% discount rate and best estimates for input values)
with an NPV of $52 million and a BCR of around 1.1

 Is not economically justified for the following cases: a discount rate of 10%; capital costs increased
by 25%; benefits reduced by 25%

 The economic justification is marginal when capital costs are increased or benefits are decreased

 Is economically justified in other sensitivity tests.

The appraisal shows that the economic justification of the initiative is sensitive to both overestimation of
benefits and underestimation of costs. This means that estimates of benefits and capital costs need to be
carefully scrutinised before a final decision to proceed with the initiative is taken.

8. Supporting calculations and formulas

The calculation of benefits outlined above were undertaken in accordance with Part M1 Public Transport of
the ATAP Guidelines. However, detailed supporting calculations of benefits are not presented here. To do so
is difficult because, in this appraisal, most of the benefit calculations were undertaken within the demand
model.
 Worked Example: W1 Public Transport
1.2 New fixed track facility

References
IA (Infrastructure Australia) 2017, The Infrastructure Australia Assessment Framework Guidelines,
http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/projects/make-a-project-assessment.aspx
Worked Example: W1 Public Transport
1.2 New fixed track facility