SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES

COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES

DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL

RELATIONS

THE CONFLICT IN SOUTH SUDAN: CHALLENGES TO THE IGAD-LED PEACE

PROCESS FROM 2013 TO 2019

BY

ALEXANDER ADDAM BOGALE

ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY

JUNE 2019
 ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY

SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES

COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES

DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

THE CONFLICT IN SOUTH SUDAN: CHALLENGES TO THE IGAD-LED PEACE

PROCESS FROM 2013 TO 2019

A Thesis Submitted to the Department of Political Science and International Relations in

Partial Fulfillment for the Award of Masters of Arts Degree in International Relation and
Diplomacy, Addis Ababa University, College of Social Sciences

By

Alexander Addam Bogale

Advisor

Fekade Terefe (PhD)

Addis Ababa University

June 2019
 ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY

SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES

COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES

DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

THE CONFLICT IN SOUTH SUDAN: CHALLENGES TO THE IGAD-LED PEACE

PROCESS FROM 2013 TO 2019

BY

ALEXANDER ADDAM BOGALE

Approved by the Board of Examiners:

Dr.__________________________ ________________ _________________

Advisor Signature Date

Dr.__________________________ ________________ _________________

External Examiner Signature Date

Dr.__________________________ ________________ _________________

Internal Examiner Signature Date
Declaration

I, the undersigned, declare that the thesis is my original work and has not been presented for a
degree in any other University and that all sources of materials used for the thesis have been duly
acknowledged.

Alexander Addam Bogale

Candidate ------------------------ ------------------------

June, 2019 Signature Date

This thesis is submitted for examination with my approval as an advisor of the candidate.
Dr. Fekade Terefe
Advisor ------------------------ ------------------------
Signature Date
 DEDICATION

This thesis is dedicated to my parents, Addam Bogale and Tsehay Gebre, who have been a
constant source of support and encouragement during the challenges of graduate school and life.
I am truly thankful for having you in my life.
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would like to express my special appreciation and thanks to my advisor Dr. Fekade Terefe for
all of his valuable comments and guidance in writing this thesis. I would like to thank you for
encouraging my research and for allowing me to grow as a researcher. Your advice on both
research as well as on my attention to detail have been priceless.

I am deeply grateful for the love, support, and encouragement of my wife, Israel Haile Michael,
the countless times I was away during important family occasions due to hectic schedules will
not be forgotten. I know you would have been proud of my achievement. To my sisters, Mulu,
Hana, Tigest, and Maed who have always loved me unconditionally, and to my adorable brothers
Yonas, Danial, Yosef and Yeabsira, whose good examples have taught me to work hard for the
things that I aspire to achieve. I am grateful to my friends and colleagues for their support and
encouragement – not just during this writing process, but also throughout all of the years and
experiences leading up to it.

I wish to thank all of the participants I had the opportunity to interview for this study. This study
would not have been possible without all of these individuals taking time out of their busy
schedules to talk to me.

I had also the benefit of support and insights from a wide variety of organizations. In this regard,
I would like to acknowledge and thank those organizations which in various ways provided me
the necessary resources required for the execution my work. Thus, I would like to recognize
the following organizations: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Federal Democratic of
Ethiopia, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the African Union Peace
and Security Council (AUPSC), and The SUDD Institute. I wish to thank from the outset,
the Embassy of the Republic of South Sudan for giving me the opportunity of sharing
their insights on the current South Sudan situation. I, therefore, thank all the staffs who gave
so generously of their time in what were sometimes very difficult circumstances in a country
facing complex state and nation building challenges.

Thank you.
ACRONYMS

ANC African National Congress

ARCRSS Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan
AU African Union
AUCISS AU Commission of Inquiry on South Sudan
AUHIP African Union High-Level Implementation Panel
AUP African Union’s Peace and Security Council
CCM Chama Cha Mapinduzi
CEWARM Conflict Early Warning Mechanism
CGA Crisis Group Africa
CoH Cessation of Hostilities
COI African Union’s Commission of Inquiry
CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement
EPRDF Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front
EU European Union
FD Former Detainees
FPD Former Political Detainees
GNU Government of National Unity
GoS Government of the Sudan
GRSS Government of the Republic of South Sudan
GOSS Government of South Sudan
HoS Heads of State
HLRF High Level Revitalization Forum
ICC International Criminal Court
ICG International Crisis Group
IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development
IPF IGAD Partners Forum
JEM Justice and Equality Movement
JMEC Joint Monitoring and Evolution Commission
LRA Lord’s Resistance Army
MVM Monitoring and Verification Mission
NCP National Congress Party
PDF Protection and Deterrence force
PSC Peace and Security Council
RARCRSS Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of
South Sudan
RSS Republic of South Sudan
SAF Sudanese Armed Forces
SLM/A Sudan Liberation Movement/Army
SPLM Sudan People’s Liberation Movement
SPLM/A Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement/Army
SPLM/A-IO Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement/Army - In Opposition
SPLM-N Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North
SSDF South Sudan Defense Forces
SSDM/A South Sudan Democratic Movement/Army
SSLA South Sudan Liberation Army
SSLM/A South Sudan Liberation Movement/Army
TGoSS Transitional Government of South Sudan
TROIKA U.S., UK and Norway
UK United Kingdom
UN United Nations
UNAMID United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur
UNMISS United Nations Mission in South Sudan
UNSC United Nations Security Council
UNSSPBSP United Nations South Sudan Peace-Building Support Plan
UPDF Uganda People’s Defense Force
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

CONTENTS Page No

DEDICATION………………………………………………………………………...………….i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS…….……………………………………………………….………ii
ACRONYMS………………………………………………………………………….…………iii
FIGURES………………………………………………………………………………….……...x
APPENDICES………………………………………………………………………………......xii
ABSTRACT………………………………….…………………………………………………xii

CHAPTER ONE

1. INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………1

1.1. Background of the Study ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..1

1.2. Statement of the Problem …………………………………………………………………………………………………………….5
1.3. Objectives ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..7
1.3.1. General Objectives ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….7
1.3.2. Specific Objectives ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………7
1.4. Research Questions ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………8
1.5. Significance of the Study …………………………………………………………………………………………………………….8
1.6. Core Arguments ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………8
1.7. Research Design and Methodology …………………………………………………………………………………………….9
1.7.1. A Qualitative Approach: Exploratory, Descriptive and Explanatory Inquiry ………………….9
1.7.2. Interview Schedule Design …………………………………………………………………………………………………10
1.7.3. Participant Selection. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………....10
1.7.4. Data gathering: Semi-Structured Interview ………………………………………………………………………11
1.7.5. Data Analysis Procedures ……………………………………………………………………………………………….12
1.7.5.1. Data Transcription………………………………………………………………………………………………….....13
 1.7.5.2. Coding ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..13
1.8. Ethical Consideration …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………13
1.9. Limitations of the Study …………………………………………………………………………………………………………….14
1.10. Delimitation of the Study …………………………………………………………………………………………………………15
1.11. Organization of the Study ………………………………………………………………………………………………………..15

CHAPTER TWO

2. LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK……………………..17

2.1. Historical Context……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….17
2.1.1. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA): A Turning Point in the Evolution of
South Sudan’s Political Economy……………………………………………………………………………………20
2.1.2. The Transition to Statehood and Short-Term Dynamics around Independence……………21
2.2. The Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) ………………………………………………..22
2.3. Operationalization and Conceptualization of Key Concepts…………………………………………………..23
2.3.1. The Concept of Conflict………………………………………………………………………………………………………23
2.3.2. The Concept of Conflict Resolution…………………………………………………………………………………..24
2.3.2.1. Defining Success in Conflict Resolution…………………………………………………………………….25
2.3.2.2. Approaches in Conflict Resolution………………………………………………………………………………26
2.3.2.2.1. Negotiation………………………………………………………………………………………………………………26
2.3.2.2.2. Mediation…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………27
2.3.2.2.2.1. Approaches of Mediation…………………………………………………………………………………28
2.3.2.2.2.2. Mediation Models……………………………………………………………………………………………..29
2.3.2.2.2.3. Success of Mediation………………………………………………………………………………………..30
2.3.2.2.2.3.1. Criteria for Successful Mediation…………………………………………………………….30
2.3.2.2.2.4. Mediation Tracks………………………………………………………………………………………………33
2.3.2.2.2.4.1. Track I Diplomacy………………………………………………………………………………………33
2.3.2.2.2.4.2. Track II Diplomacy…………………………………………………………………………………….34
2.3.2.2.2.4.3. Track III Diplomacy……………………………………………………………………………………...36
 2.3.2.2.2.4.4. Track I and a Half………………………………………………………………………………………….36

2.3.3. Theoretical Framework ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….37

2.3.3.1. Theoretical Underpinnings of Conflict ………………………………………………………………………..37
2.3.3.1.1. Structural Conflict Theory ………………………………………………………………………………………38
2.3.3.1.2. Ancient Hatreds Theory ………………………………………………………………………………………….38
2.3.3.1.3. Biological Theory ……………………………………………………………………………………………………38
2.3.3.1.4. Identity Politics Theory …………………………………………………………………………………………..39
2.3.3.1.5. Manipulative Elites Theory …………………………………………………………………………………….39
2.3.3.1.6. Economic Roots Theory ………………………………………………………………………………………….40
2.3.3.1.7. Contention for power theory …………………………………………………………………………………..40
2.3.3.1.8. Human Needs Theory ……………………………………………………………………………………………..41
2.3.3.2. Theoretical Underpinnings for Understanding Dispute Resolution ……………………………..41
2.3.3.2.1. Negotiation Theory: Foundations and Approaches …………………………………………………41
2.3.3.2.1.1. Structural Approach ……………………………………………………………………………………………..42
2.3.3.2.1.2. Strategic Approach ……………………………………………………………………………………………….42
2.3.3.2.1.3. Behavioral Approach …………………………………………………………………………………………...43
2.3.3.2.1.4. Concession Exchange (Processual) Approach …………………………………………………..43
2.3.3.2.1.5. Integrative Approach ……………………………………………………………………………………………44
2.3.3.2.2. Power-sharing Theory …………………………………………………………………………………………………44
2.3.3.3. Theoretical Underpinnings for Understanding the Role of External Actors in
Maintaining Peace and Security ……………………………………………………………………………………….46
2.3.3.3.1. Neo-realism or Structural Realism ………………………………………………………………………….46
2.3.3.3.2. Neo-liberalism …………………………………………………………………………………………………………..47
2.3.3.3.3. Constructivism ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….48
 CHAPTER THREE

3. THE DYNAMIC AND LONG-TERM DRIVERS OF SOUTH SUDAN’S VIOLENT

CONFLICT SINCE THE ONSET OF THE CONFLICT IN DECEMBER 2013………49

3.1. Introduction………………………………………………………………………………...49

3.2. The Key Events Leading Up to the Conflict ………………………………………………………………………49

3.2.1. The Colonial Legacy …………………………………………………………………………………………………………..49
3.2.2. The 1991 Splits between SPLM/A and Underlying Tensions that Date Back to Sudan’s
Civil War (1983-2005) ………………………………………………………………………………………………………..50
3.2.3. Failure of Political Leadership in the Post-Independence Period ……………………………………51
3.2.4. Centralization/ Monopoly of Power…………………………………………………………………………………..53
3.2.5. The Flaws of the CPA …………………………………………………………………………………………………………54
3.2.6. Uneasy Political Relationship between Kiir and Machar during Interim Period……………55
3.2.7. Ethnicity and Notions of Tribalism…………………………………………………………………………………….56
3.2.8. Historical Narratives/Dividers…………………………………………………………………………………………….58
3.2.9. Inequalities, Exclusions and Marginalization……………………………………………………………………59
3.2.10. Corruption and Political Marketplace………………………………………………………………………………60
3.2.11. Lack of political legitimacy and Absence of Monopoly on the Use of Force………………62
3.2.12. Blurry Institutional Boundaries between SPLM and SPLA…………………………………………..63
3.2.13. Failure to Transform SPLA into National Army…………………………………………………………….64
3.2.14. Lack of a Unified South Sudanese Identity……………………………………………………………………..65
3.2.15. Weak Foundational Institutions………………………………………………………………………………………..66
3.2.16. A Culture of Violence and Cultural Shifts………………………………………………………………………67
3.2.17. Absence of Rule of Law and Culture of Impunity………………………………………………………….68
3.2.18. The Economy of War and Quest for Control of the Oil…………………………………………………69
3.2.19. Failure of Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) ……………………………70
3.2.20. Absence of Healing and Reconciliation…………………………………………………………………………..71
 CHAPTER FOUR

4. CHALLENGES TO THE IGAD-LED SOUTH SUDANESE PEACE PROCESS FROM

2013 TO 2019……………………………………….………………………………………75

4.1. Introduction………………………………………………………………………………...75
4.1.1. Issue Framing: Elites’ Power-Sharing……………………………….…………………………………………….76
4.1.2. Imposed Peace Deals…………………………………………………………………………………………………………78
4.1.3. Forum shopping: Substitute and/or Contradictory Peace Processes……………………………..80
4.1.4. A Misguided Model and Copy Paste Peace Deals………………………………….………………………81
4.1.5. Peace Process without Trust……………………………………………………………………………..………………83
4.1.6. The Emergence of the Jieng Council of Elders………………………………….……………………………83
4.1.7. Flawed Approach: Reactive Conflict Resolution Approach and Focus on “Negative
Peace” ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………………84
4.1.8. Lack of Understanding of Power of Momentum…………………………….………………………………85
4.1.9. Peace Vs Justice…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………85
4.1.10. Challenges of Impartiality and Neutrality………………………………………..……………………………87
4.1.11. Lack of Inclusivity: The “US only Approach” ……………………………….……………………………88
4.1.12. Absence a Mutually Hurting Stalemate (MHS) ………………………………..…………………………88
4.1.13. Lack of Follow-up and Implementation……………………………………………..…………………………90
4.1.14. Lack of Political Will and Commitment to Implement Agreements………..…………………91
4.1.15. Financial Burden………………………………………………………………………………………………………………92
4.1.16. Lack of IGAD Institutionalization…………………………………………………………….……………………93
4.1.17. Inconsistency in the Mediation………………………………………………………………….……………………93
4.1.18. Lack of full Mandate……………………………………………………………………………….………………………94
4.1.19. Lack of Leverage…………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………94
4.1.20. Lack of Local Ownership………………………………………………………………………………………………..95
4.1.21. The Contents of the ARCSS and R-ARCSS Peace Agreements…………………………………96
4.1.22. Mediators’ Personal Rivalry……………………………………………………………………………………………97
4.1.23. No One to Take the Lead……………………………………………………………………..…………………………97
 4.1.24. Competing and Incompatible IGAD Member States Interests and Difficulty of
Maintaining Cohesion among Partners………………………………………..………………………………97
4.1.25. The Nature of the Relationship between the Parties in Conflict…………………………………..98

CHAPTER FIVE

5. THE ROLE OF EXTERNAL ACTORS ON THE MEDIATED SETTLEMENTS AND

CONFLICT SCENARIOS SINCE 2013…………………………………………………100

5.1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………….100
5.1.1. The Role of the African Union……………………………………………………………………………………….100
5.1.2. The Role of the UN………………………………………………………………………………………………………….102
5.1.3. The Role of the “Troika” ……………………………………………………………………………………………....104
5.1.4. The Role of the “EU” …………………………………………………………………………………………………....105
5.1.5. The Role of China…………………………………………………………………………………………………………...106
5.1.6. The Role of Sudan …………………………………………………………………………………………………….…...108
5.1.7. The Role of Uganda………………………………………………………………………………………………………..110
5.1.8. The Role of Ethiopia……………………………………………………………………………………………………….111
5.1.9. The Role of Kenya…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..112

CHAPTER SIX

6. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS………………………………………….114

6.1. Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………114
6.2. Recommendations ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………117
FIGURES

Figure 1:- South Sudan Population Movement Since 2013

Figure 2: Map of IGAD Member States

APPENDICES:

APPENDIX 1: SOUTH SUDAN CONFLICT TIMELINE: 1913-2018

APPENDIX 2: INFORMED CONSENT FORM

APPENDIX 3: INTRODUCTORY LETTER TO INTERVIEWEES

APPENDIX 4: SEMI-STRUCTURED INTERVIEW SCHEDULE

APPENDIX 5: LIST OF INTERVIEWEES

APPENDIX 6: POLITICAL MAP OF SOUTH SUDAN

APPENDIX 7: THE FORMER TEN STATES OF SOUTH SUDAN GROUPED IN THE

THREE HISTORICAL PROVINCES OF THE SUDAN

APPENDIX 8: MAP OF CONFLICT SITES OF SOUTH SUDAN

ABSTRACT

South Sudan became an independent state in July 9, 2011, following an internationally

monitored referendum, which was held on 9 January. However, almost after three years of
independence, the world newest state backslide into the horrific civil war on 15, December 2013.
The 2013 outbreak of violence in South Sudan underscores the importance of a number of
factors as critical to stable peace, including conducting a thorough analysis on the structural
and triggering factors, the challenges of the IGAD-Led peace process and the role of external
actors in peace and conflict dynamics since the onset of the armed conflict.

This paper argues that although ethnicity is a contributing factor to the crisis in South Sudan,
the characterization of the conflict as an ethnic crisis is insufficient and simplistic, shortsighted
and overlooks many of the underlying complexities of conflict dynamics. In addition to this, this
paper argues that the problems and challenges that underlie the recent IGAD-Led South Sudan
peace process have not been adequately dealt with, despite existing opportunities to address it.
Moreover, the researcher strongly argues that when a country is in a state of flux, conflict offers
opportunities for external actors to secure, protect or advance their own interests. Therefore, the
overall objective of the study is to provide an overview of the relations between the genesis of the
conflict, the mediation process and the impact of external actors on the mediated settlements in
South Sudan since 2013.

To address these issues, the study employed qualitative research methodology. Data was
collected from both primary and secondary sources. The primary sources of data collected
through key informant interview to make use of its advantage in gaining detailed information
about the issue, to examine reflections, understandings and knowledge of informants by offering
an in-depth understanding of a particular problem and challenges. To substantiate and
supplement the primary data, the thesis also used secondary data collected from books, journal
articles, proceedings, newspaper, published and unpublished materials, governmental and non-
governmental organization reports and remarks, magazines and other internet sources. Given
the data gathered are qualitative, the study employed qualitative data analysis techniques.

Key Terms: Conflict, Conflict Resolution, IGAD, Mediation, Regional Dynamics, External Actors
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APPENDIX 1: SOUTH SUDAN CONFLICT TIMELINE: 1913-2018

2013 March -Then Vice President Machar declares his intention to challenge the party
leadership, indicating areas in which President Kiir has failed.

2013 April -President Kiir strips all delegated power from Machar, a move widely perceived to
be a reaction to the latter’s declaration in March.

2013 July -President Kiir dismisses Machar from his position of Vice President and orders a
decree dismissing all ministers and deputy ministers as well as the party’s secretary Pagan
Amum.

2013 November- President Kiir dissolves the SPLM political structure, including the highest
body of the National Liberation Council, except the Chairman and the secretariat.

2013 December -SPLM/A holds its national liberation council in which Kiir attacks Machar,
citing the 1991division.

2013 December -Kiir orders the disarmament of the presidential guard suspecting an imminent
coup. At midnight, fighting breaks out between the Nuer and Dinka members of the
presidential guard, which led to the Juba Nuer Massacre.

2013 December- Machar splits from the SPLM/A, calls for an armed rebellion against Kiir and
rejects Kiir’s narrative of a coup plot.

2013 December -The Ugandan People Defense forces are deployed to Juba at the request of the
government of South Sudan.

2013 December -The Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) of Darfur is accused of supporting
the government but the movement denies this claim.

2015 January -The SPLM/A factions agree to reunify the movement.

2015 January - A cessation of hostilities agreement is signed.

2015 February- The SPLM-IG attacks Machar’s home town in a clear violation of the ceasefire
agreement.
2015 February- The SPLM-IO as a collective body announces itself and rejects the second
round of negotiations, on the ground that the cessation of hostilities agreement was not
respected.

2015 March - The AU appoints a commission of inquiry on human rights violations.

2015 March- IGAD decides to deploy a protection and deterrence force to protect Monitoring
and Verification Mechanisms (MVM) field teams.

2015 April - IGAD announces the deployment of the first MVM observers to monitor the
implementation of the cessation of hostilities agreement.

2015 May - President Kiir and Machar meet in Addis Ababa and agree to commit to the
cessation of hostilities agreement.

2015 August- The SPLM-IO accepts the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South
Sudan (ARCSS).

2015 August - The SPLM-IG signs the ARCSS.

2015 September - The SPLM-IG and SPLM-IO hold a workshop on transitional security
arrangements.

2015 October - President Kiir issues a decree aimed at restructuring the existing 10 states into
28 states within 30 days.

2015 November- The Joint Monitoring and Evaluation convenes for the first time in Juba.

2016 January - The SPLM-IG and SPLM-IO agree on ministerial positions for the envisioned
transitional government.

2016 January - Machar withdraws his team from Juba on the grounds that the government has
not changed its October decision of creating 28 states.

2016 February- President Kiir re-appoints Machar as Vice President as per the agreement.

2016 April -First Vice President (FVP) Riek Machar is sworn in Juba.
2016 July -Fighting breaks out between forces loyal to Kiir and those of Machar in Juba
reportedly due to attempts by Kiir’s supporters to arrest forces loyal to Machar.

2016 July -Through a presidential decree, Kiir appoints Taban Deng Gai as FVP, supplanting
Machar.

2016 August -The UN Security Council authorizes the deployment of a Regional Protection
Force (RPF) mandated to protect civilians, UN personnel and key facilities including Juba
airport.

2016 September -The SPLM-IG agrees to the deployment of the RPF.

2016 September- Machar calls for armed resistance against the SPLM-IG and requests the
international community to declare the government rogue and a spoiler to peace.

2016 November -Following the dismissal of Lt. Gen Johnson Mogoa Kimani Ondieki as the
commander of the UN peacekeeping forces, Kenya decides it will withdraw its forces
deployed in South Sudan as part of UNMISS and declines to contribute forces that would
constitute the RPF.

2016 December -President Kiir issues a decree authorizing the South Sudan Dialogue process.

2017 January -South Sudan rejects additional peacekeepers, admonishing that security has
improved.

2017 February -The UN and South Sudan government declare famine in Unity State.

2017 May- President Kiir announces a unilateral cessation of hostilities, reintroduces National
Dialogue.

2017 August -First batch of RPF troops arrive in South Sudan.

2017 November- UN announces that President Kiir is using food as a war weapon.

2017 December- South Sudan government and rebel groups sign a cessation of hostilities
agreement, breached the same day.
2018 June -President Kiir and Riek Machar meet face to face in Addis Ababa, two years after
the July 2016 violence.

2018 July -UN Report states that over 230 civilians killed and 120 women raped by SPLM-IG
troops and aligned forces between 16 April and 24 May.

2018 July -The South Sudanese presidency extends the tenure of President Salva Kiir until 2021.

2018 July -UN Security Council imposes an arms embargo on South Sudan and sanctions
against two individuals.

2018 September- R-ARCSS signed

APPENDIX 2: INFORMED CONSENT FORM
RESEARCH PROCEDURES

This research is being conducted to provide a fuller narrative of the causes of the South Sudan
conflict and as complete as possible the challenges of the IGAD-Led peace process and the role
of external actors in South Sudan since the start of the armed conflict in 2013. If you agree to
participate, you will be asked to take part in one in-depth interview approximately ½ to 1hours in
length. The interview is composed of open-ended questions. Enclosed with this form is a list of
questions that you may be asked during the interview.

RISKS
There are no foreseeable risks, costs, or anticipated negative effects to you or any other party for
participating in this study.

CONFIDENTIALITY
The data in this study will be confidential. With your consent, the interview will be audio taped
for purposes of accuracy. Your name will not be included on collected data (audiotapes or
transcripts of interviews). All data will be destroyed at the conclusion of this research.

Specific data from the interview will not be attributed to you; however, with your permission,
your name will be included in an appended list of participants. Though not expected, there may
be a time when you will be contacted by e-mail for clarification or other purposes.

PARTICIPATION
Your participation is voluntary, and you may withdraw from the study at any time and for any
reason. If you decide not to participate or if you withdraw from the study, there is no loss of
benefits to which you are otherwise entitled. There are no costs to you or any other party. Copies
of the final report will be made available to you if you would like them.

CONTACT

This thesis is being conducted by Alexander Addam, Department of Political Science and
International Relations, College of Social Sciences, at Addis Ababa University. You may be
reached me by phone (0936-07-07-07) or email ([email protected]) with questions or to
report a research related problem. The thesis advisor is Dr. Fekade and he may be reached at …
or (…).

CONSENT
I have read this form and agree to participate in this study
Name ________________________________________
Signature: _____________________________________ Date of signature: _______________

Please mark your response to one Identification and one Permission statement below.
Identification:
___ I prefer that my name and the name of my organization NOT appear anywhere in the
research project.
___ I prefer that my name and the name of my organization appear in the appendix on a
list of participants of this research.
APPENDIX 3: INTRODUCTORY LETTER TO INTERVIEWEES

My name is Alexander Addam and I am M.A. student at the Department of Political Science and
International Relations at Addis Ababa University. I am conducting a research to explore,
compare, and contrast the narrative of the causes of South Sudan’s conflict and the challenges of
the IGAD-Led peace process and the role of external actors in South Sudan peace and conflict
dynamics since the start of the armed conflict in 2013. I hope that you will consider participating
in this research project.

Participation in this study would involve meeting once with me for an interview approximately
½ to 1 hours in length. In some cases, we may choose telephone or email interviews, though this
is not preferred. Nevertheless, you will not be required to provide evidence or referrals. Your
participation will be confidential. Your name will not be included and no information that you
give me will be attached to you or your organization. If you would like a copy of the study, I will
provide one when the study is complete. The information will be used as part of my M.A. thesis
at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Addis Ababa University.

Your participation in this study is important both to this research and to the field at large. This
study seeks to fill a gap in research by investigating the South Sudan conflict in order to provide
insights into challenges of the IGAD-Led peace process and the role of external actors in conflict
resolution. The thesis first outlines the background to the conflict in South Sudan. It then goes on
to examine the latest important developments in South Sudan, namely the challenges of the
IGADD-Led peace process. It also describes external actors’ engagements in peace and conflict
dynamics. It also offers recommendations for the way forward.

Enclosed are questions you may be asked during the interview. There is also an informed consent
form to sign and return to me in the enclosed envelope if you choose to participate.

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me by phone at __________ or e-
mail [email protected]

Yours truly,

Alexander Addam
APPENDIX 4: SEMI-STRUCTURED INTERVIEW SCHEDULE

The semi-structured nature of the interview will allow for the possibility of altering the
question sequence, following up unanticipated leads and asking questions not prepared in
advance. However, the researcher will ensure that each of the following areas is covered.

Dear Research Participants,

My name is Alexander Addam, a master student at the Department of Political Science and
International Relations, at Addis Ababa University. I thank you for taking time to take part in
this interview. At present time, I am working on my MA thesis on “the Crisis in South Sudan:
Challenges to the IGAD-Led South Sudanese Peace Process since 2013”. This study is,
therefore, an attempt to establish the relations between the genesis of the conflict, the mediation
process and the impact of external actors on the peace and conflict dynamics in the post 2013
period. Thus, the researcher requests you for information and it appreciates your willingness to
support his efforts. The researcher believes that you will find the questionnaire/interview
guideline interesting and it looks forward to receiving your reply. The data the researcher gets
from you is solely for academic purposes and will not be used for other purposes.

Thank you in advance of your kindly cooperation!!!

March, 2019

 Part I: - Questions on: Dynamics and Long-Term Drivers of South Sudan’s Violent
Conflict since December 2013

1) How the world’s youngest nation so suddenly fall into a political crisis and descended
into bloody civil war?
2) What sparked the civil war?
3) What are the structural causes of the conflict?
4) What is the military situation in the country at the moment? What is going on now?
 Part II:- Questions on: the Challenges of the IGAD-led mediated settlements and
peacemaking efforts

1) Were there any peace initiatives before IGAD launched the peace process of South
Sudan? If yes, what were those initiatives and what were their successes and failures?
2) How IGAD started the peace process of South Sudan conflict after the re-escalation of
conflict in 2013?
3) How many peace talks were convened since 2013? What were their specific agendas?
4) What were the impediments to the IGAD-led South Sudan peace process?
5) How to ensure lasting peace in South Sudan?
6) What lessons learnt in mediation from South Sudan’s troubled peace process?

 Part III:- Questions On: The Impact of External Actors on the Prospects of a Mediated
Settlement in South Sudan

1) Why has the international community been unable to get a real deal for a long time?
2) Navigating the competing interests of regional actors in South Sudan, what was the
Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) role in South Sudan
mediation process?
3) What is being done by external actors to achieve a real deal?
4) The leaders of South Sudan’s warring parties have signed a final power sharing
agreement on September 2018.
5) What role did regional and global leaders play in the mediation process? How have they
influenced the peace negotiations?
6) How did the competing interests of external actors in South Sudan impact the
mediation effort?
7) How have the latest developments in the peace process been influenced by
political shifts in the region?
APPENDIX 5: LIST OF INTERVIEWEES

The following people were either directly interviewed or otherwise consulted for this thesis:

1) Gach Goal- South Sudanese refuge living in Addis Ababa

2) Gatluak Lul- South Sudanese refuge living in Addis Ababa

3) Gatwech Tongyiek- South Sudanese refuge living in Addis Ababa

4) Gojjam Reath Tut- South Sudanese political analyst

5) Solana Worku- Political Analyst

6) Tiger Mun- South Sudanese Journalist

7) Anonymous - Communications Officer, AU Mission to South Sudan

8) Abubakar, Ahmed Rugai- Political analyst

9) Adane, A: - Lecturer at Addis Ababa University, Department of Political Science and

International Relations

10) Andrew, M. - Senior Mediation Adviser

11) Fethawek Yetebarek- Independent Political Analyst

12) Anonymous: - IGAD Political Officer to AU (Addis Ababa)

13) Okello, Moses Chrispus: - Conflict Analyst

14) Anonymous: - Political Affairs Officer, UN Office to the AU (Addis Ababa)

15) Anonymous: - IGAD Policy Officer

16) Anonymous - Officer, Conflict Management Division, Department of Peace and Security,
AUC

17) Anonymous- Political Attaché at the Embassy of the Republic of South Sudan
APPENDIX 6: POLITICAL MAP OF SOUTH SUDAN

Source: - www.maps of the world.com

APPENDIX 7: THE FORMER TEN STATES OF SOUTH SUDAN GROUPED IN THE
THREE HISTORICAL PROVINCES OF THE SUDAN

Source: - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sudan
APPENDIX 8: MAP OF CONFLICT SITESOF SOUTH SUDAN

Source: - https://www.google.com