COVID-19: Implications For Business

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COVID-19: Implications for business

February 19, 2021 | Executive Brie ng
Our latest perspectives on the coronavirus outbreak, the twin threats to

lives and livelihoods, and how organizations can prepare for the next
normal.
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COVID-19: Briefing note #43, February 19,
2021
The pandemic has hit America hard. Our

new #America2021 series looks at how the
country can recover.
T
he US presidential transition is always a time for the country to re ect and reset. The
2021 transition is much more than that; given the once-in-a-century pandemic, it is a
watershed moment. This week, we published a series of ve memos o ering our latest
perspectives on four issues confronting the country and how public- and private-sector
leaders could organize to drive change on them.
AMERICA 2021: FIVE MEMOS OVER FIVE DAYS
Defeat COVID 19 Rebuild lives and Advance racial Commit to

Published Monday, livelihoods equity climate actio
February 15 Published Tuesday, Published Wednesday, Published Thursda
February 16 February 17 February 18
Defeat COVID 19. Will 2021 be the year in which the United States gains a decisive upper
hand in its ght against the pandemic? We argue that it is reasonable to hope that the rst
half of the year could be a bridge to “normalcy,” when many aspects of social and economic
life can resume without fear of excess mortality. This memo condenses the recent history of
the COVID 19 crisis into must-see charts and sets out six considerations for those building
bridges to normalcy.
Rebuild the economy. For America’s leaders, innovators, and changemakers, the post–
World War II recovery o ers valuable lessons for encouraging productivity, innovation, and
social-capital creation in a post-COVID 19 future. Global managing partner Kevin Sneader

and senior partner Shubham Singhal explore the good policies, political commitment, and
hard work that will be needed to replicate those successes.
Advance racial equity. Repairing the frayed social fabric in the United States is not a new
problem. But as the civil unrest of 2020 showed, it has become increasingly urgent. Our
experts contribute ideas for inclusive growth for all races and the impact, in particular, of
higher Black participation in di erent roles in the economy—a goal that the pandemic has
set back.
Commit to climate action. The global transition to a low-carbon economy is well underway.
In the United States, 23 states have established emission-reduction goals, and 12 have
instituted carbon-pricing policies. Making good on those intentions will require new
information, products, operations, and market innovations from public o cials and business
leaders. Our experts bring the best of McKinsey’s decades of research to the task.
Organize for change. To make all this happen, public-sector leaders will need to move
swiftly and decisively, bringing the whole of government to bear across all four priorities,
even as they revitalize a federal workforce with plummeting morale and lack of trust in
government leadership. In the nal memo of the series, we distill the lessons from
successful government-change programs in a set of tactical ideas for leaders to consider.
Also this week, the McKinsey Global Institute published the rst of three reports that
examine the postpandemic economy. In The future of work after COVID 19 , we assess the
lasting impact of the pandemic on labor demand, the mix of occupations, and the workforce
skills required in eight countries with diverse economic and labor-market models: China,
France, Germany, India, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Our
research concludes that because of the pandemic, up to 25 percent more workers than
previously estimated may need to switch occupations.
With vaccinations underway, executives everywhere are thinking about the critical next
months of the pandemic. Start with the McKinsey Download Hub to nd McKinsey’s latest
research, perspectives, and insights on the management issues that matter most, from
leading through the COVID 19 crisis to managing risk and digitizing operations. Also
consider our special collection The Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital. All ve
installments—a 172-page report on technology and data transformation, a 130-
page report on the path to true transformation, a 206-page report on reimagining the
postpandemic organization, a 157-page report on the challenge of climate change, and a
202-page report on reimagining operational resilience—are available now. All the reports
are a product of Our New Future, a multimedia series we created with CNBC.
You can also see the full collection of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from
our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our rst 100 articles related to the
coronavirus, our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our
editors choose images that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.
This brie ng note was edited by Mark Staples, an executive editor in the New York o ce.
2021
From lab to jab: How will the world ship

vaccine doses to those in need? Our latest
logistics research takes a look.
More than 12 billion vaccine doses have been announced by manufacturers for release in
2021, subject to successful clinical trials. The earth’s population is 7.8 billion. Coverage for a
rst dose seems adequate, until you consider the logistics. Manufacturing is concentrated
in a handful of countries; regions without manufacturing must import the vaccine (exhibit).
Exhibit
Our new research looks into the considerable obstacles blocking these ows, including the
need for ultracold supply chains, lack of air-cargo capacity, and counterfeiting. What’s
needed is collective action on an unprecedented scale among manufacturers, governments,

customs authorities, and others.
Some countries, such as the United Kingdom, are equipped with adequate vaccine
manufacturing to meet domestic needs. But the United Kingdom faces other problems,
such as the plight of small and medium-size businesses, which we described in June 2020.
Our update shows that on many measures, life is getting better for these companies. But
many are still dependent on government support, and anxious about what comes next.
Companies everywhere are reckoning with the rst-order e ects of the pandemic and
trying to anticipate those of the second order. In this week’s episode of the McKinsey Talks
Talent podcast, our experts help you get out in front of the changes in middle management.
Faster, atter, leaner: companies have been trying for decades to thin their ranks. But amid
the challenges of the pandemic, middle managers can still make valuable contributions, in
new ways.
Stock markets seem to have established their own form of herd immunity. This week,
marking the 50th anniversary of Nasdaq, senior partner Vijay D’Silva and executive editor
Roberta Fusaro spoke with Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman about how markets are staying
relevant, and partner Tim Koller weighed in on how markets should be more inclusive, share
more information, inspire innovation, and bring the world together.
Also new this week, we explored the nine traits of future-ready companies, tracked down a
winning formula for specialty chemical companies, and spoke with the new CEO of NXP
Semiconductors.
Finally, we conclude Our New Future, a series of management discussions in partnership
with CNBC; our nal topic is the need for resiliency . Senior partner Katy George leads the
discussion, joined by Arvind Krishna, CEO of IBM. One essential insight: resiliency isn’t a
lever to be pulled; rather, it’s a combination of actions, technologies, and strategies that
companies work on every day.
consider our special collection The Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital. All ve
postpandemic organization, a 157-page report on the challenge of climate change, and a
202-page report on reimagining operational resilience—are available now. All the reports
are a product of Our New Future, a multimedia series we created with CNBC.
2021
Executives still feel positive about the

economy, advanced industrial companies
are plotting their exit from the pandemic,
and more.
The pandemic continues to dominate global economic sentiment. In our newest McKinsey
Global Survey of more than a thousand executives from all industries, the outlook is still
positive, though not quite as strong as in early December 2020 (exhibit). Majorities of
executives continue to believe that conditions in their home economies and in the global
economy will improve over the next six months.
Exhibit
We also ask leaders about their home countries. The story there is mixed. Sentiment in India
is up and is nearly as positive as it is in China. But in Asia–Paci c and Europe, the share of
executives that is optimistic fell by double digits. And in Latin America, just 30 percent are
optimistic, the lowest gure globally.
Advanced industrials companies are among the world’s largest—and those most a ected by
the pandemic. Worldwide, these rms (including advanced electronics, aerospace and
defense, and automotive and assembly companies) employ almost 25 million people and
generate about $9.3 trillion in annual revenue. The crisis has hurt sales, margins, and
growth. In our new comprehensive report , we outline ten actions that industrials can take to
undo the damage and pivot to a postcrisis future. Among the ideas: take advantage of the
stunning developments in e-commerce. Companies that embed digital sales into their
marketing models see ve-times-faster revenue growth compared with previous levels, as
well as 30 percent higher acquisition e ciency and cost reductions of 40 to 60 percent
within sales.
Our researchers continue to track the long-running crisis of our time: climate change. In a
new report, we address the potential for voluntary carbon markets . Some companies need
carbon credits to o set emissions they can’t get rid of by other means. Others might have
credits to sell. But carbon markets have a mixed track record. To build a better one, buyers,
sellers, and a few other stakeholders need to come together. Our research for the Taskforce
on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets , led by Mark Carney and Bill Winters, explains what’s
needed. And in this week’s edition of the McKinsey Podcast , McKinsey experts discuss
what can be done to truly decarbonize global business at scale.
Also new this week, we outline a new portfolio model for biotech ; consider the potential for
“smart quality” assurance in pharmaceuticals ; and share tips for government leaders to
unlock diversity and inclusion. Finally, we are pleased to speak with Richard N. Haass,
president of the Council on Foreign Relations, about his new book The World: A Brief
Introduction (Penguin Press, May 2020), in the latest installment of Author Talks .
consider our special collection The Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital. The rst four
postpandemic organization, and a 157-page report on the challenge of climate change—
are available now. The nal installment is coming as part of Our New Future, a multimedia
series we created with CNBC.
COVID-19 and the great reset: Briefing
note #40, January 27, 2021
Vaccine rollout has run into problems. Our

new research explores where and why.
McKinsey research intently continues to examine the progress of SARS CoV 2 vaccine
development and distribution. Last week, we updated our series on the end of the
pandemic to consider the emergence of new strains of the virus and a slow start to vaccine
rollout. Both represent serious threats to the timetable. This week, we looked more closely
at the problems in vaccine distribution. We start by mapping the operating path, from raw
materials to post-vaccination care (interactive). At every step, risks and challenges are
emerging. But so too are collaborative approaches that can help countries achieve herd
immunity.
Interactive
< Prev 01 — 06 Next >
The pandemic has been a tough, real-life stress test for government disbursement
schemes, highlighting not only opportunities but also gaps and vulnerabilities. Our new
research across 12 countries shows both. One key nding: getting aid to those who need it
is greatly bolstered by digital payment channels, a basic digital identi cation system used
by most people, and simple data on individuals and businesses that are tethered to that
digital ID.
Gone but not forgotten: in the crisis, global CO 2 emissions brie y plunged, then resumed.
Today, as economies rebuild, the climate challenge is again top of mind. For a new report
published this week, we teamed up with the World Economic Forum (WEF) to examine
natural climate solutions . Simply put, these are techniques to increase carbon storage and
avoid emissions—through better conservation, restoration, and management of our
priceless natural resources. There is no clear path to mitigate the damaging e ects of
climate change that doesn’t include natural climate solutions. The case is complete when
you consider the urgent need to slow the destruction of the natural world. (We’re also
collaborating with WEF on the Davos Agenda , the rst of two events being held in place of
its usual annual meeting.)
Also this week, we looked at procurement in the next normal , the greatly exaggerated
rumor of the death of the vending machine in Japan, the dramatic shifts in sporting
goods over the past year, and the rising value of industrial brands .
Asia is at an in ection point. New research

looks at developments in industrial
technology, renewables, travel, ASEAN’s
vast human capital, and China’s education
system.
In 2020, the largest health and economic crisis in recent history forced companies across
sectors into extraordinary measures to protect their people and maintain operations. Did the
technologies of the ongoing Fourth Industrial Revolution (or Industry 4.0) help? Our new
survey of industrial companies (two-thirds in Asia) suggests three outcomes, starting with a
huge win for companies that had already scaled digital technologies (exhibit). Those that
were still scaling faced a reality check, and 2020 was a wake-up call for those that hadn’t
yet started on their Industry 4.0 journeys.
Exhibit
Other technologies are also changing life in Asia. While coal is expected to remain a
signi cant component of India’s energy mix, the country is placing big bets on renewable
power, which could make up nearly half of the global total electricity capacity by 2035.
Among the biggest believers is Sumant Sinha of ReNew Power. Our interview explores why
renewables are di erent in Asia.
Our 2020 research o ered a perspective on the coming rebound in travel: how far, how
fast, and where. Now, in an interview with McKinsey, the president of online travel unicorn
Traveloka explains the nuts and bolts of the rebound. The critical moves for this company?
Giving a thousand employee-volunteers the tools they needed to help customers with more
than 150,000 refund requests; extending credit to strapped customers who were having
trouble saving for their big trip; and thinking about the local market beyond the big beach
destinations popular with international tourists.
For many people, those beaches are a major part of the allure of ASEAN countries, along
with sunshine, great food, and history. But as our recent research shows, there is more to
ASEAN than just that, and now is a good time to rethink ASEAN and its 650 million people,
$3 trillion economy, ten countries, and history of robust growth: 5 percent over the past 20-
plus years. In the latest Future of Asia Podcast , our experts delve into the question of
whether ASEAN can maintain that track record after the di cult challenges of COVID 19.
Short answer: yes, if the region can harness its extraordinary resources.
Across Asia, and the world, work is changing as digitization and automation spread.
Hundreds of millions of people may need to raise and refresh their skills; some may need to
change occupations. Up to one-third of these transitions may be needed in China. If China
gets this right, it could establish a helpful reference point to other economies. The
McKinsey Global Institute’s new report looks at the skills revolution that the country needs
to keep raising its standard of living.
Also this week, our researchers looked at scenario-based cash planning , the next wave of
M&A in advanced industries , lessons from the fastest growing companies in logistics , and
the potential for digital and analytics in steel .
The COVID 19 crisis wrenched energy

demand from its growth trajectory and
workers from their cubicles. What happens
next?
For a time in 2020, we stopped driving, ying, commuting. And we stopped buying the fuel
needed to do these things. Today, even as economies have restarted, fuel demand remains
subdued. McKinsey’s Global Energy Perspective 2021, an annual report, analyzes the ways
in which the COVID 19 pandemic has permanently shifted energy-demand curves. Demand
is likely to return to 2019 levels within one to four years, with electricity and gas rebounding
fastest (Exhibit 1). But we do not foresee a return to the previous trajectory of growth in
demand.
Exhibit 1
< Back 01–04 Next >
Source: McKinsey Energy Insights Global Energy Perspective 2021, December 2020
In the longer term, the energy transition—already underway before 2020—will accelerate.
Power consumption doubles by 2050 as energy demand electri es, wealth increases, and
green hydrogen picks up momentum. Oil demand peaks in 2029; gas, in 2037. But fossil
fuels continue to play a major role in the energy system in 2050. Our reference-
case modeling helps you understand all the twists and turns.
With workforces now located in kitchens, basements, and attics, what will happen to all
those sleek urban o ce towers and their glossy suburban counterparts? The answer has to
start with their current tenants. Our latest survey of CXOs, which focused on the corporate
center , nds that most companies are intensely debating the issues raised by COVID 19’s
work-from-home experiment, and many companies are planning substantial shifts in the
next three to nine months (Exhibit 2). In the short term, 70 percent of corporate-center
executives plan to recon gure o ce space, as do 54 percent of business-unit leaders. Over
the midterm, 30 percent of corporate centers want to terminate existing leases early,
compared with 14 percent of business units. Finally, as they look to the longer term, 55
percent of corporate centers plan to shift toward fewer and lower-cost locations. Business
heads showed more willingness to stay put.
Exhibit 2
In a crisis, it’s all hands on deck. Bank tellers are becoming nancial advisors; fresh-faced
managers are leading enormous projects; and companies are intently searching for people
with the aptitude to become data analysts and mobile web designers. In this month’s edition
of the McKinsey Quarterly Five Fifty, we document the trend underpinning it all: reskilling .
Also this week, we researched the long-term e ects of the pandemic on biopharma ,
explained the nine keys to becoming a future-ready company, and considered the long-run
implications of 2020 on cybersecurity in Latin America .
Executives everywhere are thinking about the critical next months of the pandemic. Start
with the McKinsey Download Hub to nd McKinsey’s latest research, perspectives, and
insights on the management issues that matter most, from leading through the COVID 19
crisis to managing risk and digitizing operations. Also consider our special collection The
Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital. The rst four installments—a 172-
page report on technology and data transformation, a 130-page report on the path to true
transformation, a 206-page report on reimagining the postpandemic organization, and a
157-page report on the challenge of climate change—are available now. The nal
installment is coming as part of Our New Future, a multimedia series we created with
CNBC.
One year ends, another begins. From

disruption to transition, McKinsey research
traces the pandemic’s arc.
One way or another, 2021 is likely to be the year when the world transitions to the next
normal. As executives take stock of what’s just happened, and what’s to come, they won’t
go far wrong by considering the ten trends that authors Kevin Sneader and Shubham
Singhal analyzed and the e ects of those trends on the global economy, business, and
society. First up in the next normal: “revenge shopping” as many consumers open their
wallets for goods and services they’ve done without recently. Other trends to ponder—none
traditionally associated with recessions—include startling growth in the number of new
businesses, an incredible rise in productivity, permanent changes in consumer behavior,

and the “bio revolution,” which may soon create di erent mechanisms of production for 60
percent of the global economy’s physical inputs. One thing’s for sure: 2022 won’t look
anything like 2019.
Our recent survey of global executives focused on the here and now: even in the short term,
optimism is growing. Our December 2020 survey of global executives detected the highest
levels of optimism since the COVID 19 pandemic began (exhibit). Executives in Europe,
North America, and developing markets report concerns more acute than others did; those
in Europe, for example, remain especially worried about unemployment. But even these
respondents are less downbeat than they were in the previous quarter. Looking ahead, the
respondents’ expectations for their home economies are increasingly positive: 61 percent
say global economic conditions will be better six months from now, up from 51 percent in
mid-October.
Exhibit
The United States is the global economy’s linchpin; it’s no surprise that the rollout of
COVID 19 vaccines there is under intense scrutiny. Our latest research details ve
challenges to at-scale vaccine adoption. Chief among these: consumer skepticism.

According to our most recent US consumer research, 63 percent of respondents are
cautious about the vaccines or unlikely to be vaccinated. The antidote? Conviction,
convenience, and costlessness. If the 100 million Americans who are uncertain about the
COVID 19 vaccine can be brought around through a combination of education, easy access,
and a ordability, the bene ts will be enormous. We estimate that new investment of about
$12 billion, in addition to current programs, could bring forward the pandemic’s end by three
to six months and generate an additional $800 billion to $1.2 trillion in US GDP.
Also this week, our industry researchers examined four topics: consumers’ uptake of US
ntech o erings, the resilience imperative for medtech supply chains, B2B sales in Brazil ,
and the future of insurance in Africa .
Finally, we closed the books on 2020 by o ering three summaries of a di cult, often
desperate, and, yes, disruptive year: highlights of our publishing, including our top ten,
insights from the McKinsey Quarterly and the McKinsey Global Institute, and editors’ picks;
a tale of 2020 in 20 McKinsey charts ; and, similarly, the 20 photos and illustrations that
helped us tell the visual story of a remarkable time. Thank you for reading, and best wishes
for a better new year.
Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital. The rst four installments—a 172-
page report on technology and data transformation, a 130-page report on the path to true
CNBC.
note #36, December 16, 2020
Vaccines are here. What can stakeholders

do to ensure quick and e ective
distribution and boost public con dence in
vaccination e orts?
The rst COVID 19 vaccines have been authorized for use and dissemination has begun in
several countries, marking a major turning point in the pandemic and bringing fresh
optimism for a next normal in the new year. These vaccines were developed four times
faster than any other in history, but they will also require a rollout four times greater,
amounting to the largest simultaneous global public-health initiative ever undertaken .
Governments and healthcare professionals will need to collaborate on an incredible scale to

allot and deliver vaccine doses and to address challenges from storage and transport to
administration and data tracking. Multiple vaccines and changing supply volumes will also
necessitate an evolving delivery model (Exhibit 1).
Exhibit 1
Stakeholders face another hurdle to widespread vaccine adoption: some consumers remain
skeptical of COVID 19 immunization . To reach herd immunity, our analysis suggests

adoption ranges would need to be greater than those of vaccines for the u and other
diseases (Exhibit 2). The vast majority of US consumers surveyed believe the vaccine is
important to facilitate a return to life as it was, but nearly half are “cautious adopters,”
preferring to defer vaccination for up to three months to a year, after more data is available.
To boost acceptance, healthcare leaders will need to dynamically engage consumers
through information campaigns using trusted, in uential sources.
Exhibit 2
New research from the McKinsey Global Institute points to another area of hope in the face
of the current crisis: a renewed social contract . Governments across 22 countries have
upped their scal spending as a percentage of GDP by around 20 percent compared with
last year, and the private sector has made e orts to o er employee protections. Combined,
these interventions have provided an economic bu er and some initiatives have the
potential to translate into long-term solutions to protect individuals from the immediate
e ects of future crises.
The COVID 19 pandemic is unleashing a new era of change for businesses as well.
Companies have seen the e ects of high-consequence, low-likelihood risks rsthand. While
corporate decision makers cannot plan for every potential risk, we examined some ways
they can prepare for extraordinary risks , determine which protections are worth the
investment, and position themselves for better resiliency. As CEOs continue to develop their
COVID Exit strategies , we analyzed how two companies have found a successful COVID-
Exit path with transformations that balance portfolio moves and performance
improvements.
Our research shows that companies are already focusing on two areas in particular. A new
global survey of more than 800 executives reveals that companies are prioritizing business
building for organic growth, launching new businesses at an accelerated rate and, in turn,
growing faster. The strongest companies are also reinventing themselves through next-
normal operating models , capitalizing on this malleable moment and the resulting spread of
agile processes, nimbler ways of working, and increased speed and productivity.
This week, we took a close look at the banking sector, starting with our 2020 update to
McKinsey’s Global Banking Annual Review . We also highlighted developments in two

countries: how banks can provide a credit lifeline to small and medium-size enterprises in
South Africa and steps Nigeria’s banking sector can take to thrive amid the crisis.
Our industry experts explored the future of fashion , how the COVID 19 pandemic has
disrupted mobility and a ected demand for in vitro diagnostics , and how Australia’s
COVID 19 response can inform decision makers around the world. Global economist
Dambisa Moyo also provided insights on models for growth, stakeholder capitalism, and
how to drive enduring change amid uncertainty.
Finally, we launched our new Author Talks series, featuring interviews with noted
management thinker and professor Roger Martin on the high price of e ciency and
McKinsey Global Institute editorial director Peter Gumbel on searching for identity.
Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital. The rst four installments—a 172-page
report on technology and data transformation, a 130-page report on the path to true
CNBC.
This brie ng note was edited by Dana Sand, an assistant managing editor in the Atlanta
o ce.
After a tumultuous year for racial justice,

companies are pledging change. McKinsey
announces one of our biggest
commitments: the Institute for Black
Economic Mobility.
The year 2020 has been one of losses—around the world, and in the United States in
particular. More than 46,000 Black Americans have died from COVID 19—twice as many,
proportionally, as white Americans. This year also saw the murders of George Floyd,
Breonna Taylor, and many other Black Americans. The events of this year are emblematic of
long-standing inequities and are rooted in a long history of systemic discrimination. The
typical Black American family has eight times less wealth than a white American family. The
racial wealth gap has profound consequences, for families and the US economy, which
misses out on between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion in GDP output each year.
To make good on these profound inequities, or at least make a start, nearly one-third of
Fortune 1000 companies made a public statement on racial equity in recent months, and
followed it up with an internal or external commitment. Of those, about 57 percent publicly

announced the amount they were committing to racial equity initiatives, pledging a total of
$66 billion (exhibit).
Exhibit
This week, we published new research on ve attributes of successful coalitions —ideas
that can help make sure that the $66 billion pledged achieves maximum impact. We’re also
proud to announce the McKinsey Institute for Black Economic Mobility , which will research
the issues, convene stakeholders, and work to convert research ndings into real-world
impact. This is a critical moment. Corporate America is more focused on the issue of racial
justice than it ever has been. It is imperative to ensure that the unprecedented commitment
of resources and focus toward racial equity is channeled e ectively, proves impactful,
delivers a high return on investment for society, and brings about real progress for
individuals and communities.
Women and children have also su ered immensely from the global pandemic. The latest
edition of the McKinsey Quarterly Five Fifty distills our gender research to date in an easy-
to-read ve-minute summary, and provides links for those who want to learn more. One
reason women are more a ected: two million women (many of them mothers of young
children) are thinking about leaving the workforce, or have already left. And our new
research on learning loss during the COVID 19 pandemic nds that students have lost a lot
of ground. We o er insights to help educators curb losses and accelerate learning.
In two new podcasts, McKinsey experts spoke with our editors about grief, loss, and
burnout at work—and about America’s behavioral health crisis . We also published
insights from two leading scholars about the coming revolution in mental health in the
workplace.
Also this week, our industry researchers focused on Europe, looking at three topics:
decarbonization in various EU industries; new consumer behaviors in grocery shopping ;
and the impact of the second lockdown on automotive retail . We also outlined steps to help
US state governments manage a growing budget crisis.
Finally, we asked a diverse range of our Gen Z consultants (born after 1996) from around the
globe to tell us which of the more than 1,000 articles we published in 2020 struck a chord
with them. Here’s what they said .
Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital. The rst three installments—a 172-page
transformation, and a 206-page report on reimagining the postpandemic organization—

are available now. Two more are coming as part of Our New Future, a multimedia series we
created with CNBC.
Pandemic fatigue is bad and getting worse.

Here’s practical advice for leaders to help
people reconnect with their jobs, their
colleagues, and their purpose.
“I’m not sure how much longer I can keep going like this.” “I’m completely burned out.”
Pandemic fatigue is here, and while almost everybody is feeling it, and more people are
talking about it, no one knows exactly what to do about it. Our new research explains
principles and sets out practical steps to get through a potentially prolonged period of
disillusionment, grief, and exhaustion. Here’s a sampling of the tips on o er:
Leaders need to set and enforce work boundaries; violating these is one of the
biggest energy drains.
They can help people see this time as a quest toward something new, not as a
restitution of bygone days, and not as chaos to be muddled through.
Managers can encourage employees to take a zero-based approach to meetings, to

help them choose which ones to attend.
And they can prioritize the work people do. Now is the time for organizations to nally
tackle busyness and focus on the work that matters most. One global organization
put a halt to new initiatives for a period of two months to allow for recovery, while
another now examines which initiatives to “sunset” and how to intentionally limit the
amount of work in progress.
In a companion piece, McKinsey experts spoke with Admiral John Richardson, former US
chief of naval operations, about how to lead during long-term crises marked by deep
uncertainty. Many of the naval analogies he shared translate well to civilian organizations.
Captains rely on the “chief of the boat” to take the pulse of the crew and represent their
needs. That’s one way the captain avoids being the ship’s “single point of safety.” If the
captain is indispensable, he or she is also overstretched and will inevitably make a mistake.
And “recovery is critical to mission e ectiveness.” Organizations need structures that

protect time o and teams that make it possible for even their busiest members to take
extended time o .
Case counts are rising rapidly in many countries, straining hospital systems. Our new
research assesses how much slack is left in the system. The answer is not encouraging. In
many US localities, for example, COVID 19 beds will be full by December 7, based on
current trends (exhibit). We also o er ideas for hospital systems on how to use their
resources to the utmost.
Exhibit
Few industries have been as deeply a ected by the pandemic as fashion and retail. This
week we published The State of Fashion 2021 , our annual report on the industry, issued
jointly with the Business of Fashion. Unsurprisingly, we estimate that revenues in 2020 will
likely fall by 27 to 30 percent from the year before. Many global fashion companies may be
at risk, and the pain extends to workers in low-cost sourcing and manufacturing hubs. But
our research also nds that growth should resume in 2021.
This week, our industry researchers also looked at the factors spurring healthtech
investment , considered the future of European payments , reviewed the potential for
privately owned autonomous vehicles , and detailed ten priorities for governmental
resilience .
Finally, our climate experts trained their sights on India , a country that faces a rapidly
degrading physical environment. India could become one of the rst places in the world to
experience heat waves that, in extremis, exceed the survivability limit for healthy people.
More generally, heat and humidity will reduce labor productivity and hurt growth in an
economy that relies substantially on outdoor work.
Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital. The rst three installments—a 172-page
transformation, and a 206-page report on reimagining the postpandemic organization—
are available now. Two more are coming as part of Our New Future, a multimedia series we
created with CNBC.
note #33, November 25, 2020
What to make of the promising news on

COVID 19 vaccines and new CEO insights
on leading through the pandemic: here’s
this week’s update.
The world has cheered recent announcements about COVID 19-vaccine candidates. Two
are showing higher e cacy rates than many dared hope for. Higher e cacy provides
greater bene t to any vaccinated individual and may help encourage uptake among some
segments of the population. It also reduces the fraction of the population required to reach
herd immunity (exhibit).
Exhibit
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While that’s highly positive news, McKinsey research also nds that the new vaccines are
likely to accelerate only slightly the timetable to the end of the pandemic. In the United
States, normalcy is not likely until the second quarter of 2021, and herd immunity is not
likely until the third quarter. In other words, the pandemic will not be vanquished soon, and
businesses will continue to be challenged. See our latest brie ng materials —129 pages to
guide leaders through the di culties of the next few months.
Leaders can also take inspiration and new ideas from their peers. This week, McKinsey
experts spoke with ve top executives to learn more about how they are leading through the
pandemic. Amrita Ahuja, CFO of Square, spoke about the future of payments , including the
potential for a cashless society and frictionless exchanges made possible by machine
learning and even cryptocurrency. Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala, CEO of Ayala Corporation,
talked about how the Philippines’ oldest conglomerate has taken on society’s pain points in
housing, electricity, medicine, and water and his optimistic outlook for Asia . His main
concern? The potential for geopolitics to create several sets of technological standards,
producing ine ciencies and raising costs.
Telemedicine is one of the extraordinary growth stories of the pandemic. Annie Lamont,
managing partner of Oak HC/FT, shared her insights on what it and other trends mean for
healthcare investing . Lisa Weiland, CEO of the Massachusetts Port Authority, spoke with us
about what it means to run a major transportation hub when passenger volumes are down
by two-thirds. Airports are preparing for contactless journeys and other means to improve
the customer experience. And Tim Welsh, vice chairman of U.S. Bank, explained how new
skills are helping the nation’s fth-largest bank better connect with its customers.
This year’s McKinsey Global Survey on Arti cial Intelligence nds “no increase in AI
adoption.” But the technology is far from stalled: one- fth of companies are deriving at least
5 percent of their earnings from AI, and they plan to further their investments in this still-
promising technology. And in the latest installment of McKinsey’s series with CNBC, senior
partner Mary Meaney speaks with IBM CEO Arvind Krishna and Unilever chief HR o cer
Leena Nair to discuss how companies can organize for the next normal .
Finally, as the United States heads into a pandemic-altered Thanksgiving holiday, many are
counting their blessings even harder than usual—and just as many are hoping for better
days to come. A collection of articles and multimedia outlines McKinsey’s views on food
security and the ways that food banks, distribution partners, philanthropic foundations, and
the private sector can ensure that people across North America have reliable access to
nutritious meals. Pradeep Prabhala leads the initiative and o ers his thoughts in the New at
McKinsey Blog.
Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital. The rst two installments—a 172-
page report on technology and data transformation and a 130-page report on the path to
true transformation—are available now. Three more are coming as part of Our New Future,
a multimedia series we created with CNBC.
In the pandemic, capitalism’s adherents

are reconsidering its recent history and its
future direction. Two new reports can
illuminate the path.
This week, McKinsey experts took a step back to consider the e ects of the COVID 19
crisis on the economic system in which much of the world operates: capitalism. Two new
reports o er complementary views. In “ Rethinking the future of American capitalism ,”
James Manyika, Gary Pinkus, and Monique Tuin trace the extraordinary achievements of the
American system and the work still to come, including the need to rectify unequal and
increasingly disparate outcomes for people and places, increasing “superstar” e ects, and
declining investment in public goods.
“ The case for stakeholder capitalism ” considers the role of business in society—a role that
companies should not resist, lest they “ nd themselves on the wrong side of history … and
also at a competitive disadvantage.” Vivian Hunt, Bruce Simpson, and Yuito Yamada
examine the rising expectations for business, detail ve principles for companies to follow,
and o er many practical insights as they take action. One tactic is simply to publish your
targets: a Danish power company put forth a ten-year plan to switch from coal to
renewables; they did it in nine years, while simultaneously increasing pro ts by 43 percent.
Employees may be the stakeholders that need the most attention. According to our latest
research , almost a year into the crisis, employees—especially women, LGBTQ+ employees,
people of color, and working parents—are crying out for more support (exhibit). Nearly all
employers are aware of the challenges and have established polices to help, but they are
nding it hard to execute their diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) strategies. Asking and
answering a set of tough questions can help companies close the gap.
Exhibit
Prev 01 — 04 Next
Our experts also considered the future of corporate training, an expensive and often
ine ective activity—when it did succeed, it was through in-person, hands-on learning. The
COVID 19 pandemic brought that to a halt, forcing companies to innovate. In our latest
research, we chronicle the advances companies have made in the pandemic and the ways
in which the new capabilities they have built have secured their competitive position.
Also this week, our industry researchers looked at data’s critical role in two transport
industries, bulk and tanker shipping and airlines ; considered the e ects of the COVID 19
pandemic on supply chains in retail ; and outlined our latest ndings on consumer behavior ,
this time in Europe.
We have updated our comprehensive COVID 19 brie ng materials. The new 129-page
report is now available for download .
Executives everywhere are thinking about the potential for successful vaccines to deliver
the next normal. Start with the McKinsey Download Hub to nd McKinsey’s latest research,
perspectives, and insights on the management issues that matter most, from leading
through the COVID 19 crisis to managing risk and digitizing operations. Also consider our
special collection The Next Normal: The recovery Will Be Digital. The rst two installments—
a 172-page report on technology and data transformation and a 130-page report on the
path to true transformation—are available now. Three more are coming as part of Our New
Future, a multimedia series we created with CNBC.
A vaccine breakthrough and how

companies are thinking about purpose:
here’s the latest from McKinsey’s research.
This week saw some surprising news about a large COVID 19-vaccine trial: a leading
candidate has an e cacy rate of about 90 percent. There’s a lot of green between this
particular ball and the pocket, but the news was most welcome. COVID 19 vaccines have
been a focus of our research, as seen in our July 2020 overview , which includes a full
discussion of the key issues of manufacturing and distribution, and subsequent articles on
the end of the pandemic , an optimistic scenario for the pandemic response in the United
States, and the technology transfer that may be critical to beating the COVID 19 crisis.
With the end in sight, or at least in fuzzy focus, companies are thinking ahead. A critical
challenge for companies in the postcrisis era will be articulating clear, meaningful, and
authentic purposes. Some companies seem to have the answer : they know their reasons
for being, communicate them easily to customers, and enjoy the results. Our new framework
(exhibit) can help others think through these knotty issues.
Exhibit
Governments have not lost sight of their purpose, but ful lling it has become much more
di cult. The gap between incoming and outgoing funds may reach $30 trillion soon. Our
latest research shows a particularly e ective bridge for governments to consider: real
estate . The public controls a vast amount of acreage, o ce space, and other assets, and
governments can extract much more revenue from them without breaching the public trust.
On a related note, as part of their purpose, many businesses will embrace sustainability;
voluntary carbon markets can help them reach their goals.
Cost management may be the yin to purpose’s yang, but is no less essential. In our new
survey of some 300 C-level executives, we look at the ways that the corporate center is
evolving. Our latest observations nd that many organizations are accelerating their cost-
reduction targets, modifying their operating models on the y, and rede ning their
functional priorities.
Our new regional research considers two large economies in Asia. China, the world’s growth
engine for the past 25 years, has come back —in ways that may surprise you. Consumer
behavior has changed, pockets of growth are shifting, and leadership and management
practices are in ux; businesses that manufacture and sell in China must be alive to the
changes. And in Australia, businesses would be wise to understand today’s more mindful
consumers .
Finally, the McKinsey Podcast zeroed in this week on retail, where the talk was all about
rapid revenue recovery. Say what? It’s true: winners are recognizing the shifts in consumer
behavior, adjusting their o erings, and rebuilding their businesses. Successful companies
have ve traits in common.
Executives everywhere are thinking about the potential for successful vaccines to deliver
the next normal. Start with the McKinsey Download Hub to nd McKinsey’s latest research,
perspectives, and insights on the management issues that matter most, from leading
through the COVID 19 crisis to managing risk and digitizing operations. Also consider our
special collection The Next Normal: The recovery Will Be Digital. The rst two installments—
a 172-page report on technology and data transformation and a 130-page report on the
path to true transformation—are available now. Three more are coming as part of Our New
Future, a multimedia series we created with CNBC.
Scenario planning and a new decision tool

are helping executives cut through the
murk of the pandemic’s many confusions.
Executives have noticed the striking rise in COVID 19 cases in many parts of the world, yet
they remain positive—if a tri e more wary. In the October edition of our monthly survey of
more than 2,000 leaders around the world, fewer executives than in September say that
better economic conditions are on the way (exhibit). But the balance is still tilted toward a
positive outlook, especially where pro ts and customer demand are concerned.
Exhibit
We also asked respondents to vote on which of McKinsey’s nine pandemic scenarios is
most likely. As of October, they are solidly in favor of scenario A1 (a muted recovery) but also
see B2 (a prolonged and insu cient recovery) as a scenario to consider. Unsure about the
terminology? In a new interactive , we explain our scenarios, what executives are thinking,
and how that thinking has changed over time.
For decades, McKinsey has advocated for the advantages of scenario planning while also
recognizing the ways the approach can fall short . The pandemic has illustrated both sides
of the equation. Enter a new approach: parametric analysis, in the form of an “ uncertainty
cube .” Right now, the businesses facing the greatest uncertainty are limiting themselves to
three or four macrolevel scenarios that provide general direction but not much detailed
guidance. The uncertainty cube uses several macroeconomic and nancing parameters to
generate highly speci c advice by which to steer such a business.
Operating models, too, have come under pressure at companies facing great uncertainty.
What’s needed are new structures designed to cope with the unprecedented conditions of
2020 and beyond. One way forward may be to embark, at last, on a true transformation. A
new video explains the logic.
This week, we were delighted to sit down with two executives cutting remarkable paths
through the pandemic. Aneel Bhusri, co-CEO of Workday, reveals the secrets of life in the
pandemic for the nance- and HR-software powerhouse. And Sir Mark Lowcock, under-
secretary-general for humanitarian a airs at the United Nations, explains the panoply of
e ects of the crisis on the United Nations and its missions.
Also this week, McKinsey experts assessed the potential for India’s manufacturing sector to
deliver much-needed growth and jobs; reviewed the impact of the pandemic on the global
petrochemical industry ; and considered the moves that South Africa’s insurers can make to
thrive in the long term.
Finally, in the pandemic, many of us are spending more time at home with our families.
Children are naturally curious about what parents do—and it isn’t always easy to explain. At
McKinsey, we took a crack at it and developed a new explainer for the younger crowd. Hint:
it involves shing.
Executives everywhere are thinking through the contours of the next normal. Start with the
McKinsey Download Hub to nd McKinsey’s latest research, perspectives, and insights on
the management issues that matter most, from leading through the COVID 19 crisis to
managing risk and digitizing operations. Also consider our special collection The Next
Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital. The rst two installments—a 172-page report on
technology and data transformation, and a 130-page report on the path to true
transformation—are available now. Three more are coming as part of Our New Future, a
multimedia series we created with CNBC.
note #29, October 28, 2020
New views on the postpandemic futures of

six sectors.
The old joke has it that nostalgia isn’t what it used to be. As the unrelenting COVID 19
pandemic rolls on, the future isn’t what it used to be, either. What used to be a simple idea
now comes freighted with caveats, assumptions, and speculations. In the spirit of
illumination, McKinsey researchers this week took a look at how things might develop in six
sectors beyond the next few weeks.
The auto industry is one of the world’s largest and has been devastated by the pandemic:
sales may drop by 20 to 30 percent in 2020, and we estimate that pro ts will fall by $100
billion. But automakers can respond. One example: software-subscription services, which
enable people to pay for programs that unlock features from heated seating to full self-
driving capabilities, allow dealerships to develop a better relationship with consumers while
o ering drivers additional exibility and customization.
The US restaurant industry has given many iconic brands to the rest of the world. But today,
the sector is in trouble. In our latest podcast , we review the industry’s predicament, which
we explored earlier in some depth , and assess the innovative solutions that companies are
devising. Takeout and delivery are here to stay, and restaurants are working to make those
experiences better. Menus also need a rethink. People don’t order sides, appetizers, and
desserts as frequently when they’re ordering for delivery—but as leaders know, those items
are often the di erence between pro t and loss.
For banks, the pandemic has changed everything. Risk-management teams are running
hard to catch up with cascades of credit risk, among other challenges. Down the line, we
expect that automated underwriting will take hold for retail and small-business customers
and will both reduce losses and save costs.
Asian insurers are looking at a more consolidated future. Our new report argues that
insurtechs’ new, pandemic-oriented products and digital capabilities—not least the ability to
reach millions of customers within a few months—mean that a programmatic approach to
M&A is the surest strategy to overcome the industry’s structural weaknesses.
We recently hosted a panel discussion with Shobana Kamineni, executive vice chairperson
of India’s Apollo Hospitals, to discuss the evolving nature of healthcare at scale. Apollo
Hospitals comprises more than 7,000 physicians and 30,000 other healthcare
professionals, and its app is downloaded about 30,000 times a day. Among the ndings:
public–private partnerships are working well and have the potential to in uence the future
of healthcare.
Finally, we consider ve fundamental questions for US higher education , as colleges
fashion their pandemic response. Also this week: a new survey of Europe’s small and
medium-size businesses lays out the extent of the economic damage and owners’ muted
outlook.
Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital, featuring a 172-page curated volume that you can
download —the rst of ve edited collections that accompany Our New Future, a
Geopolitics is back. Business leaders need

to think through the implications.
In the 1990s, adherents of Francis Fukuyama came to believe in the “end of history.” The
COVID 19 pandemic and a host of other factors—such as climate change, cyberattacks, and
terrorism—have helped history stage a resounding comeback. Now, according to Richard

Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, the trick for businesses is to adjust
and hope that history is just back for a visit and not for revenge. In a discussion with
McKinsey senior partner and cochair of the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) James Manyika,
Haass speaks about the return of geopolitics to the top of the CEO agenda. Supply chains
are another critical focus of the renewed attention, as covered in MGI’s new report and
partner Susan Lund’s comments in the Economist.
McKinsey research has documented the disproportionate e ects of the crisis on ethnic
minorities, both in the United States and elsewhere. Our latest report on the topic looks at
the United Kingdom. Key ndings: over the past two decades, every ethnic minority group
has made progress, in both absolute terms and relative to the white majority, on a range of
economic indicators (exhibit). But the COVID 19 crisis threatens that progress; not only do
all ethnic-minority groups have higher age-adjusted COVID 19-related death rates than
white people do, but Bangladeshis and Pakistanis, in particular, are concentrated in
occupations that have been hard hit by furloughs and layo s.
Exhibit
This week, our marketing experts zeroed in on B2B businesses and how they sell . The
classic approach is person to person; think of pharma’s armies of “detailers.” However, the
COVID 19 pandemic has moved almost all sales online, often to self-service digital
platforms. Everyone seems to be happier with the new arrangements. Some 70 percent of
buyers say they prefer digital interactions; sellers like the greater e ectiveness.
Videoconferences and live chats are helping companies seal the deal; traditional phone
calls are now a last resort.
Also this week, our industry researchers examined the latest travel data from China to
understand what it might mean for tourism and business travel elsewhere. They also
considered the new challenges for innovation in consumer companies .
The stock market has many puzzled. Here’s

our explanation.
In the middle of the deepest recession in memory, stock markets are reaching new highs.
Why the disconnect? To understand the conundrum, McKinsey experts point to three
factors . First, many investors still take a long-term perspective; they are looking ahead to
the end of the pandemic. Another factor: ve big-tech companies now make up 21 percent
of the S&P 500, one of the world’s most-watched markets. And smaller, unlisted companies
have absorbed a lot of the economic damage, such as the dramatic rise in unemployment.
The overall stock market can do relatively well even when employment and GDP are
severely depressed (exhibit).
Exhibit
Investors may also be focused on the vast di erences in resilience at companies. We
interviewed leaders at several UK companies that have done better than others during the
crisis. What distinguishes them, in a word, is agility . From a common purpose to rapid
decision making to empowered local teams, these companies found ways to respond
quickly to COVID 19. A key nding: war-gaming for a no-deal Brexit built a solid foundation
for supply-chain resilience.
A new podcast this week examined those same supply-chain issues, in the context of
McKinsey Global Institute’s August 2020 report on risk and resilience. Experts Ed Barriball
and Susan Lund explain the research nding that, on average, companies can expect a
disruption to their production lines of one to two months—a very long time—every three-
and-a-half to four years.
Another podcast lays out the path forward for the US retail industry ; our experts explain
what it means for the industry when so many categories are tilting toward online shopping.
Short answers, from senior partner Becca Coggins: “we’re in the foothills of what
omnichannel-driven convenience will look like” and “some big innovations will scale, now
that consumer expectations have been reset.” In another report, we examined the same
forces and their e ect on Middle East and Africa retailers .
Also this week: McKinsey researchers examined the potential for medtech innovation , and
a more productive future for insurers .
Executives everywhere are thinking through the contours of the next normal. Start with The
McKinsey Download Hub , with McKinsey’s latest research, perspectives, and insights on
As the e ects of the pandemic intensify

gender inequality, further threaten the
economy, and raise hurdles for the health
industry, companies’ actions now could
see them through the crisis.
In the sixth year of our Women in the Workplace study, conducted in partnership with
LeanIn.Org, we nd that the e ects of the COVID 19 crisis have exacerbated gender
disparities and their implications for women at work, especially for mothers, female senior
leaders, and Black women across America. In addition to being laid o and furloughed at
higher rates than their male counterparts during the pandemic, women are—notably, for the
rst time in our research on the topic—considering downshifting their careers or leaving the
workforce altogether at staggering rates.
The exodus might include as many as two million women. That would raise a signi cant
barrier to achieving gender parity in leadership roles in years to come. People are thinking
about leaving the workforce for a variety of reasons (exhibit). While many organizations are
providing additional resources related to remote working and employee well-being, there is
more to be done to meet employees’ needs for sustainable, exible, and empathic work
environments, especially for parents and caregivers.
Exhibit
Meanwhile, the global economic contractions resulting from the COVID 19 pandemic have
far exceeded those of the Great Recession that ended in 2009 and have occurred at a
much faster rate, hitting all sectors and many of the world’s largest employers. As
companies plan for various outcomes in 2021, our research shows what companies seeking
resilience can do today to achieve “ escape velocity ” from the crisis by focusing on EBITDA
[1]
margins, revenue, and optionality.
An area where companies have already adjusted well is using technology to address
changing work environments and to stay competitive. Our new global survey nds that
organizations that are successfully responding to the crisis have deployed more advanced
technologies, digital products, and tech talent to speed up innovation—and they expect
most of these changes to outlast the pandemic.
Our research this week sheds light on two important issues facing healthcare providers.
First, similarities in u and COVID 19 symptoms could lead to a threefold spike in demand
for COVID 19 testing as u season in the Northern Hemisphere approaches. Maintaining
su cient capacity for testing and contact tracing will be critical in curbing further outbreaks
and protecting high-risk groups. Second, the crisis has also led to a surgical backlog for
elective procedures because of lack of hospital capacity, workforce shortages, and new
safety protocols. Health systems will need to optimize current clinical operations to address
the discrepancies in supply and demand.
This week we also explored how European marketing-and-sales leaders are navigating the
e ects of the pandemic, the domino e ect for improving sales returns on investment,
disruption that is reshaping construction-material distribution , and steps that distributors

can take to stabilize operations and outperform competitors.
Executives everywhere are thinking through the contours of the next normal. Consider our
special collection The Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital, featuring a 172-page
curated volume that you can download —the rst of ve edited collections that accompany
Our New Future, a multimedia series we created with CNBC.
o ce.
note #25, September 30, 2020
Executives are more hopeful about the

economy than they have been at any time
so far during the COVID 19 crisis. Is an end
to the pandemic at hand?
Six months after WHO declared COVID 19 a global pandemic, the responses to our latest
McKinsey Global Survey suggest a positive shift in economic sentiment. More than half of
all executives surveyed say economic conditions in their own countries will be better six
months from now, while 30 percent say they will worsen (exhibit). That’s the smallest
percentage of pessimists we’ve seen since the survey in April 2020.
Exhibit
Taking a cue from those executives, our researchers delved deep into the US situation ,
emerging with an understanding of what it will take to deliver an optimistic outcome. The
case depends on the progress made to date—and the potential for more. We’ve learned
much about the natural history and epidemiology of COVID 19. We’re developing better
diagnostics, including rapid point-of-care tests, a few of which can be completed in about
15 minutes. Case management has improved. And pharmaceutical companies have turned
out a remarkably robust pipeline of vaccine and therapeutic candidates. Put it all together,
and an end to the pandemic is potentially within range.
Another new survey reveals the extent of the COVID 19 crisis’s disruption in working
practices and behaviors . One-third of surveyed companies have accelerated the digitization
of their supply chains, half have sped up the digitization of their customer channels, and
two-thirds have moved faster to adopt arti cial intelligence and automation. Many other
workforce changes are also in progress.
Managers need to process these changes and many others, and come to grips with the
long-term strategic-planning agenda . The essential question: what is the right way to think
about 2021 and beyond? Should companies unbatten the hatches, or is it too soon?
For many families, it isn’t the workplace but the school that occupies the most attention.
McKinsey’s latest look at education examines the variables that factor into decisions to
reopen schools . Also this week, McKinsey researchers focused on cash management
through the crisis and on the problems of budgeting in healthcare systems .
special collection The Next Normal: The Recovery Will Be Digital, featuring a 172-page
A potential end to the pandemic, a bright

outlook for electric vehicles, and more.
In our latest public-health research, we assess the prospects for an end to the pandemic.
Two standards must be met. In the United States and most other developed economies,
herd immunity is most likely to be achieved in the third or fourth quarter of 2021. Key
variables are the arrival, e cacy, and coverage of vaccines; we anticipate four scenarios
(Exhibit 1). A return to normalcy might come sooner, possibly in the rst or second quarter of
2021. Every day matters, for lives and livelihoods.
Exhibit 1
Prev 01 — 04
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On the economic front, the COVID 19 crisis presents the greatest challenge in a decade for
the auto sector. Global sales of light vehicles in 2020 might decline 20 to 25 percent from
prepandemic forecasts. In the hardest-hit countries, sales could fall by 45 percent. Electric
vehicles (EVs) have not been spared. But our new research nds that EV sales may come
back quickly in the next couple of years, especially in Asia and Europe, for a few reasons
(Exhibit 2).
Exhibit 2
The crisis has also set in motion a number of trends in mobility that will a ect EVs, internal-
combustion engines, and all the other ways that people get around. A second
report considers ve of these trends. One critical nding: as lives become hyperlocal,
modes of transport will change. We expect a drastic decrease in private-car usage in some
major European cities but only a slight decline in North America. Greater China will become
even more reliant on public transit and rail as some drivers are coaxed out of their cars.
Our private-equity research teams chipped in a comprehensive look at the e ects of the
crisis on sectors, and what those mean for portfolio companies and rm strategy. Several
analyses o er insights; one on debt-service coverage ratios nds that companies in
industrial equipment and logistics are among the most vulnerable, along with real estate,
travel, and retail. Telecom companies are better situated, as their business has been only
mildly disrupted.
Also this week: McKinsey has long been committed to research into gender equality. In
2015, UN signatories set an ambitious target of achieving gender equality and empowering
women and girls everywhere. Five years on, we assess the scant progress to date, blunted
by COVID 19, and o er ten things that everyone needs to know about gender equality.
Finally, our researchers o er new views on the post-COVID 19 future of the global travel
industry , graphic-paper producers , and the global gold industry . And, with disruption
everywhere, people miss their old lives. That’s a problem for managers, who can take three
practical steps to help people process their grief.
special collection, The Next Normal: The recovery Will Be Digital, featuring a 172-page
our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our rst 100 coronavirus articles , our suite of
tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and a look at how our editors choose
images that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.
Companies return to work after an unusual

summer—and grapple with an uncertain
future.
What now? Over the past six months, business leaders have reorganized supply chains, set
up remote operations, and made tough nancial decisions. The world anxiously awaits an
e ective COVID 19 vaccine that can be readily distributed. Until then, the priority is to
reenergize organizations—to act rather than react. Even as the uncertainties of the COVID-
19 crisis multiply, the goal must be to rebuild for the longer term. There are many ways to
lead, but regardless of the type of business or geography, ten actions can form a path to
emerge stronger from the crisis.
We start with an idea—that returning is a muscle that needs to be exercised, not a plan to
be executed once or a date to be achieved. We go on to more speci c considerations, such
as the need to make big moves fast and to be willing to rethink entire portfolios , including
where work gets done .
Those are four of the ten actions, and they make for a good starting point. But companies
must adjust for the particulars of their industry. Healthcare companies might want to pay
strict heed to six trends that are a ecting their business. Most were under way before the
crisis. But a crisis has a way of bringing things to a head: the coming months might be the
best opportunity in memory for healthcare companies to pursue exponential innovation ,
which could create an additional $400 billion in value by 2025. And now is the time to claim
the hundreds of billions of dollars that could be saved through productivity gains .
McKinsey’s healthcare researchers also took a close look at the US blood supply , which
was fragile before the pandemic and is now critical. Businesses have a big role to play in the
solution. Blood donors frequently cite convenience and social pressure as prompts. Virtual
campaigns for blood drives can help blood centers quickly reach large audiences and steer
them to the locations most convenient for them.
CFOs have a critical task too: for many, it’s budgeting season. Our new research nds that
the nancial-planning process for 2021 presents an opportunity to turn hard-earned
lessons from the COVID 19 pandemic into an enduring exercise in linking strategy to value.
And leaders across organizations need to consider the problems of unresolved grief —
another issue that the pandemic has dragged into the spotlight.
Our industry research this week looked at ntech , where the news is not altogether bad,
though ntech companies may have to nd a detour on the road to pro tability. We also
considered M&A in pharma , a long-running trend that should continue. Companies are
advised to make sure that three capabilities—competitive advantage, capacity, and
conviction—are up to snu before pursuing COVID 19-era mergers.
Finally, the pandemic has forced a reckoning for many between the pro t motive and a
company’s social purpose. A team of McKinsey editors recaps how we got from there to
here , and suggests where we might go next.
As summer turns to fall in the Northern Hemisphere, executives are thinking through the
contours of the next normal. Consider our special collection, The Next Normal: The recovery
Will Be Digital, featuring a 172-page curated volume that you can download —the rst of
ve edited collections that accompany Our New Future, a multimedia series we created
with CNBC.
tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images that
help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.
McKinsey research focuses on the

postpandemic future of developing Asia.
No nation has escaped widespread disruption from the COVID 19 pandemic, but some
have fared better than others. This week, McKinsey researchers examined the state of the
recovery in some of the emerging Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam—that began the crisis at
a disadvantage and have su ered disproportionate e ects. Our new report explores a
series of trends that the pandemic has caused or accelerated. Within each is a seed of
recovery, but stakeholders must be prepared to reimagine their country’s economy in ve
areas: manufacturing hubs, green infrastructure, investments in digital, talent reskilling, and
high-value food industries.
We also looked in detail at developments in two ASEAN countries. In Indonesia , the
pandemic is still raging; case counts and fatalities are rising sharply. The rst priority is to
mitigate and contain the outbreak. But even amid the current hardship and profound
uncertainty, Indonesia can reimagine and reform itself by increasing national resilience,
accelerating economic transition, rebuilding the tourist sector, and enabling genuine
change.
Vietnam, too, is contending with short-term challenges as it emerges from the pandemic,
especially in tourism and manufacturing, two of the country’s strengths. For the long haul,
our new report argues that one essential element of growth is renewable energy. As a
country likely to be heavily a ected by climate change, Vietnam could accelerate its journey
toward a less carbon-intensive future. A new national energy plan is a good sign; now, the
challenge is to execute it. (For Vietnam and many other countries, education is another
important cog in the engine of growth. This week, we published a comprehensive report on
a more equitable and resilient education system .)
Elsewhere in the region, our latest CEO interview , with Peter Harmer of Insurance Australia
Group, reveals new insights into “ the CEO moment ” a orded by the crisis. Asked about
crisis resilience, Harmer says, “You have to tether resilience to real beliefs. We have a deep
commitment to our purpose, which is to make your world a safer place. Our purpose is the
framework through which all our decisions are made.”
Also this week, a new McKinsey survey tapped the wisdom of hundreds of executives
across a swath of industries on the need for speed (exhibit). Most expect signi cant change
across ten of 12 dimensions; surprisingly, only a few expect change in their corporate
purpose. (Perhaps they have already embraced Peter Harmer’s view .) And our industry
researchers looked at the promise of digital services at B2B service companies and
contemplated the troubled present—and potential future—for downstream oil and gas in
North America.
Exhibit
Prev 10 — 10
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01 — 10
Summer may be over in the Northern Hemisphere, but great reading knows no season. It’s
not too late to catch our annual summer reading list and our special collection, The Next
Normal: The recovery Will Be Digital, featuring a 172-page curated volume that you can
tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and how our editors choose images that
help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.
Preventing future waves of COVID-19:
Briefing note #21, August 31, 2020
After seven months of responding to the

pandemic, we have learned some things.
Here are some of the key lessons and how
to apply them.
By Sarun Charumilind, Matt Craven, Jessica

Lamb, and Matt Wilson
When history books one day recount the COVID 19 pandemic of 2020, it may well be a tale
of human ingenuity and adaptiveness. Although the novel coronavirus (SARS CoV 2), the
virus that causes COVID 19, has infected more than 24 million people and left more than
800,000 dead as of this writing, the early projections of mortality were much worse.
Fears of millions of deaths by June 2020 have proven wrong—not because the disease is
less lethal than anticipated, but because those fears ignored the ability of people to learn
and change behaviors. Pockets of resistance against wearing masks and complying with
other measures notwithstanding, the global public-health response has saved millions of
lives. Increasingly, countries are restarting more aspects of normal life while keeping case
numbers tenuously in check.
Pockets of resistance against wearing masks and complying with other measures
notwithstanding, the global public health response has saved millions of lives.
Yet the threat to lives and livelihoods persists. A COVID 19 vaccine may yet “ save the
world .” But even if one proves e ective, it will be many months before we will have the
capacity to vaccinate everyone—and there are new concerns about reinfection.[ 2 ]
Therapeutics such as dexamethasone and remdesivir appear to provide important bene ts
for those with severe cases but are not alone su cient to stop deaths from COVID 19.
New therapies are possible but by no means guaranteed. Countries will very likely need to
plan for almost another year during which public-health measures are their primary tools for
saving lives. In the meantime, the world cannot be idle. Societies have been upended,
causing unprecedented disruption to economies, education systems, and the day-to-day
lives of people everywhere. And as we and others have argued, saving lives and opening
societies is a false trade-o .
In that area, too, our ability to learn and adapt is proving dispositive. Countries that have
successfully reduced their number of COVID 19 cases have generally been more successful
at reopening their economies. For them, controlling the virus ultimately has come down to
two things: understanding what to do and executing well. Both have been challenging at
various points. For example, the evidence base for the population-wide use of masks only
became compelling a few months into the pandemic response. In contrast, the importance
of testing has been clear from the earliest days, but many countries have faced operational
challenges in ramping up their capacity.
While there is much more to learn, this article summarizes what response leaders have
discovered so far about what to do and how to do it. Every jurisdiction is doing some of
these things; none of them are new for experts in infectious diseases. But we have tried to
describe speci c considerations for practitioners looking to adopt and adapt best practices
to their management of the COVID 19 pandemic. Given the outsize role that businesses are
taking in the crisis response in numerous countries, many of the ideas are as relevant to
private-sector leaders as to those in the public sector. Interventions are divided into three
categories—detecting disease, reducing the number of new cases, and limiting mortality—
and can be tailored for speci c populations and settings (Exhibit 1).
Exhibit 1
Detecting disease
The ability to detect cases of COVID 19 is a critical prerequisite for e ective public-health
programs. A comprehensive program might include traditional disease surveillance, cluster

analysis to understand local patterns of transmission, and wastewater surveillance for early
warning of disease hot spots.
Disease surveillance
An ability to collect, analyze, and interpret data is fundamental to the management of
infectious diseases. While many people have grown familiar with epidemiological metrics
such as test-positivity rates and case-fatality ratios, many countries and regions still rely on
20th-century surveillance systems. The biggest gaps are in data collection and integration:
there is no shortage of data-crunching horsepower in the world, but everyone is forced to
work from the same imperfect data sets. Even seven months into the COVID 19-pandemic
response, there is a surprising level of disagreement about questions as basic as the true
number of people who have been infected with SARS CoV 2 and the number of deaths
attributable to it. Continuing to expand testing, as described later in this article, is a big part
of improving surveillance.
The best surveillance systems seamlessly combine data from traditional sources with newer
data sets, such as anonymized mobility tracking—and do so in near real time. They provide a
high level of detail and transparency around the characteristics and location of those
infected while protecting individual privacy. And they improve over time as a design
principle, incorporating new sources of data and improving quality to reduce friction in the
response.
The best surveillance systems seamlessly combine data from traditional sources with
newer data sets, such as anonymized mobility tracking—and do so in near real time.
Cluster analysis
The medical community has learned much about how COVID 19 is passed from person to
person and therefore how to prevent transmission. But there is more to learn about the
speci c nature of transmission in particular geographies. The examination of chains of
infectious-disease transmission, or cluster analysis, helps medical professionals understand

how, when, where, and between whom transmission occurs.
Locally relevant information can focus public-health measures on steps that will make a
di erence and deemphasize those that won’t. A study of more than 3,000 cases across 61
clusters in Japan, for example, identi ed healthcare facilities and retirement centers as
among the most important centers of transmission.[ 3 ] Similarly, clusters in the United
Kingdom have been identi ed around retirement homes, in hospitals, and in meatpacking
factories—the latter also being a source of clusters in Germany.
Cluster analysis has revealed the importance and characteristics of so-called
superspreaders (infected individuals who pass the disease to many others). A deeper
understanding of transmission dynamics may allow some regions to move from broad-
based interventions to targeted ones. It can also allow for more nuanced risk assessments,
for example, to determine who can safely access senior-care facilities.
Wastewater surveillance
An important advance in surveillance capabilities came with the discovery that SARS CoV 2
is present in the stool of infected people and is detectable even in highly diluted samples,
such as municipal wastewater. Wastewater sampling, used for decades to monitor for polio,
appears to detect viral increases of COVID 19 up to six days earlier than diagnostic tests of
individuals do.[ 4 ] While a number of locations, including Queensland in Australia, Ashkelon
in Israel, and Boise in the United States,[ 5 ] are piloting or using this approach to monitor for
COVID 19, wastewater remains an underutilized tool globally.
The wastewater-surveillance approach is most applicable in low-prevalence settings where

an increase in cases is more noticeable and testing of individuals might otherwise be
limited. Ideally, public-health leaders would have the ability to work upstream when
increases in viral concentration are detected—for example, from testing town sewers to
determining which neighborhoods are the source of the virus.
Reducing the number of new cases
Preventing new cases of COVID 19 ultimately requires reducing the opportunity for infected
individuals to pass the disease to others. That can be done by identifying and isolating
those who have been infected or are at high risk, ensuring physical distance and air ow
management, reducing the risk of the encounters that do happen, and reducing case
migration from higher-prevalence areas. The basic tool kit for the reduction of new cases is
well understood by experts and nonexperts alike. It includes canceling mass events,
restricting capacity in social settings (particularly indoors or with large numbers of people),
implementing con nement measures, and restricting internal movement (Exhibit 2). Those
measures can be reinforced through e ective behavior-change communication and focused

implementation for high-risk groups or speci c geographies. And since COVID 19 vaccines
are likely to be approved eventually, leaders may want to start now in preparing to deploy
one e ectively. In this section, we highlight some second-order or less appreciated lessons
from the pandemic response so far.
Exhibit 2
Identifying and isolating those infected

Widespread, accurate, e ciently managed testing and contact-tracing programs allow
countries to isolate those who have or are at high risk of contracting COVID 19. Testing and
tracing have played major roles in the successful response to various phases of the
pandemic in a number of countries, including Austria, Iceland, New Zealand, and South
Korea.
Despite the apparent simplicity of testing and tracing, practitioners learned the hard way
through early missteps. Among their many lessons are the following:
Communicate clearly with the public about the appropriate uses and limitations of
di erent types of tests, including antigen, molecular, and antibody testing.
Address supply-chain and logistical challenges to keep expanding testing access

until most cases are being detected. Test-positivity rates above 5 percent suggest
that too many cases are being missed.
Make use of pooled testing to boost capacity where needed, especially in low-
prevalence settings. Combine testing for surveillance with testing for positive-case
identi cation.
Accelerate testing turnaround time by ensuring that those performing tests are
compensated based on speed and accuracy, not just volume. Accelerate the
application of test results by integrating data platforms for testing with those for
contact tracing, shortening the time to quarantine.
Sta enough personnel, as the core of contact-tracing programs is human-to-human
conversation. Overinvest in community sensitization to the value of tracing and
importance of contact quarantine. Digital contact-tracing tools with high adoption can
also accelerate contact identi cation and shorten the time to quarantine.
Don’t expect contact tracing to work perfectly initially; take a data-centric approach
to improving operations and e ectiveness over time.
Recognize that isolating for ten to 14 days is onerous, especially for low-income
individuals. Social services and options for out-of-home isolation, such as in
converted hotels, can improve the e ectiveness of quarantine and make it more
tolerable.
Managing risk in encounters between

people
COVID 19 is spread primarily from person to person, including from those not showing
symptoms, through the air (either on droplets or by truly being airborne). Close proximity
and poor air ow increase the risk of transmission, while the use of facial coverings
decreases it. Speci c considerations for risk reduction vary depending on risk, context, and
other conditions.[ 6 ]
Limited evidence from US states suggests that mask mandates are correlated with greater
reductions in new cases than mask recommendations are. Di erent masks o er varying
levels of protection. N95 respirators tted to users provide the greatest protection,[ 7 ]
protecting both the wearer and those around them. Supply constraints, cost, and user
comfort mean that universal N95 use is not practical in many settings. Three-layer surgical
masks provide the next greatest protection. Goggles and other eye protection may provide
incremental protection to the wearer relative to a mask alone.[ 8 ]
Frequent hand washing and environmental cleaning reduce the transmission of COVID 19.
However, the relative emphasis on environmental cleaning has decreased, as evidence
suggests that transmission primarily occurs from person to person rather than via objects in
the environment.
Reducing case migration

Across the world, countries are taking di erent approaches to restricting importation of
COVID 19 cases. They range from complete bans on international travel to targeted bans on
travel from locations with high caseloads to screening and quarantine requirements for
arriving travelers. In some countries, including Australia and the United States, some of
those measures also apply for travel within countries. In many cases, companies and other
institutions are implementing their own policies beyond those required by governments.
Measures that are based on consistent, easily understood criteria are more likely to
maintain high levels of public buy-in and participation.
Changing behaviors
A successful response to the COVID 19 pandemic requires convincing large numbers of
people to change their behaviors. Some countries have seen signi cant resistance to such
changes, particularly those around physical-distancing measures and facial-covering
mandates. A lack of trust in governments, information overload, and inconsistent messaging
over time have all contributed to that opposition. E ective public-health communication can
accelerate the adoption of new behaviors.
E ective communication includes segmenting populations based on the combination of
channels, in uencers, and messages most likely to resonate with individual groups. While
there are positive examples from the response to the COVID 19 pandemic, the public-health
community could learn more from experts in targeting and tailoring political and consumer-
marketing messages. The in uence model can help. It suggests that people are most likely
to change behaviors when four elements are in place:
Understanding and conviction in what is being asked. “I believe that wearing a face
mask will help protect me and my community from COVID 19.”
Reinforcement with formal mechanisms, which may include both ‘carrots’ and ‘sticks.’
“The grocery store has both a sign, which I can see as I approach, saying that masks
are required and a greeter handing them out.”
Con dence and skill building in the new behavior. “I’ve worn a mask enough times
that I’ve stopped worrying about looking silly.”
Role modeling the new behavior. “The mayor of my town and almost everyone around
me are wearing masks. Those not doing so look like the exceptions.”
Applying insights from the in uence model to COVID 19-related communications is an area
in which collaboration might help. Many jurisdictions are enlisting the help of partners,
celebrities, and in uencers to amplify their messages. For example, in the United States,
basketball star Stephen Curry asked questions of infectious-disease expert Anthony Fauci
live on Instagram. That served to bring evidence-based public-health information to
audiences less likely to access o cial sources.
Protecting vulnerable populations

The COVID 19 pandemic has a disproportionate impact on a number of vulnerable
populations . Such groups include people whose age or health puts them at increased risk
and those at greater risk because of socioeconomic factors (Exhibit 3). Communities with
severe housing problems, unemployment rates, incarceration rates, poverty levels, and food
insecurity su er 1.4 to 4.0 times as many COVID 19-related deaths as other communities.
Vulnerable populations are less likely to have access to healthcare in most countries and
are more likely to have underlying health conditions.
Exhibit 3
In addition to measuring and tracking the impact of the COVID 19 pandemic on vulnerable
populations, designing protective interventions requires identifying what makes those
groups more vulnerable to infection. Approaches might include prioritizing access to
testing, targeting communications, and providing additional support for quarantine and
isolation. Interventions will likely need to be multipronged, since the most vulnerable
communities are often vulnerable for multiple reasons. Furthermore, the stakeholders best
positioned to implement interventions e ectively will need resources, which would ideally
be allocated proportionately to the outsize impact of COVID 19 infection on vulnerable

communities.
Planning for a vaccine

It is reasonable to hope that Emergency Use Authorization (or its equivalent) may be
granted to one or more COVID 19-vaccine candidates before the end of 2020.[ 9 ] While
vaccines will be valuable new tools, their approval will bring a whole new set of questions for
leaders.
Planning now will increase the chance of a successful vaccine rollout. Those on point will
need to monitor closely the technical characteristics of the most promising vaccine
candidates. Such monitoring includes understanding the likely dosing regimen, potential
e cacy, and side e ects. From there, they will need to develop a clear, scenario-based
strategy for prioritizing vaccine access, recognizing the range of potential vaccine outcomes
and combinations available.
Every jurisdiction is likely to be vaccine-supply constrained in the short term, so agreeing on
grounding principles in advance will make allocation decisions easier down the road. So will
designing the end-to-end supply and delivery systems that will be needed. The plan should
include systems for ensuring series completion in the case of a multidose vaccine and data
systems for tracking those who have been vaccinated. It may include temporarily expanding
the roles of medical practitioners—for example, by allowing those with lower levels of
quali cation to administer vaccines, after training, in uncomplicated cases.
Finally, planners may need to overinvest in addressing vaccine hesitancy in areas where
surveys suggest it is a signi cant concern. Communications around vaccines will be both
challenging and important given the likely complexity of information around e cacy, safety,
and dosing across multiple vaccine candidates.
Limiting mortality
In addition to limiting case numbers, reducing the mortality associated with COVID 19 is a
key element of the ght against the disease. Clinicians and health-system leaders have
learned much about both the speci c clinical management of COVID 19 and how to prepare
health systems to manage surges in cases while maintaining essential services.
Health-system preparedness
In the early days of the COVID 19 pandemic, the world anxiously witnessed many countries’
health systems strain under the exponential onslaught of cases. Critical-care capacity was
a bottleneck, given that one in ve patients, initially, were dependent on ventilators.

Healthcare supply chains, especially for personal protective equipment, were overwhelmed.
To create surge capacity, health systems and consumers ceased elective care—seemingly
overnight. That resulted in an imbalance of capacity, with overloaded health systems in
COVID 19 epicenters transformed into disaster-response hubs. In areas where the disease
had not yet spread, care centers sat empty, waiting for an outbreak they were unsure would
ever arrive.
We know now that health systems in any developed country should be able to anticipate,
plan for, manage, and successfully navigate the pandemic adequately both for patients with
COVID 19 and for patients with other diseases . Some require focused action, especially
surge capacity, supply availability, workforce readiness, clinical-operations processes,
structure for COVID 19-case governance, and nancial resiliency.[ 10 ]
Use of therapeutics and clinical

management
The search for e ective therapies for COVID 19 has yielded two important advances, so far,
but no breakthrough transformative enough to obviate the need to limit cases.

Dexamethasone, an injected corticosteroid, was shown to reduce mortality by 35 percent in
patients requiring mechanical ventilation and by 18 percent in those requiring oxygen only.
[ 11 ]
Remdesivir has been shown to reduce recovery time by an average of four days.[ 12 ]
Both drugs emerged from the medical community’s initial focus on repurposing drugs that
were already approved or in late-stage development for the treatment of other diseases.
The focus is now shifting to new R&D. In the months ahead, additional evidence may
support therapies based on other antivirals and monoclonal antibodies. In addition to
speci c therapeutics for COVID 19, there have been advances in the nonpharmaceutical
management of the disease. For example, there is some evidence to support the use of
“proning”—placing patients face down—to reduce the need for mechanical ventilation.[ 13 ]
Policy makers can continue to keep a close eye on both the evidence for new therapeutics
and the standards of clinical practice. Over time and with further advances, strong health
systems may succeed in reducing COVID 19-related mortality to the point at which the
disease is far less feared.
Public-health measures to control the COVID 19 pandemic will be relevant for as long as its
risk continues. Many countries and regions have risen to the challenge by combining
multiple public-health measures that work for them, although almost all have some room to
improve. As we consider what it will take to respond to current and future waves of COVID-
19, we can take some comfort from the fact that far more is known about controlling SARS-
CoV 2 than was understood seven months ago. It is up to all of us to learn, adapt, and apply
those lessons e ectively.
Download the article (PDF 435KB).
About the authors

Sarun Charumilind is a partner in McKinsey’s Philadelphia o ce, where Jessica Lamb is a
partner; Matt Craven is a partner in the Silicon Valley o ce; and Matt Wilson is a senior
partner in the New York o ce.
The authors wish to thank Damien Bruce, Penny Dash, Pooja Kumar, and Taylor Ray for their
contributions to this article.
This article was edited by Dennis Swinford, a senior editor in the Seattle o ce.
note #20, August 27, 2020
Amid one of the greatest bull markets ever

for technology, semiconductor fabs must
nd ways to keep up. And all advanced-
industry companies should organize for
speed to sustain their current pace.
This week, McKinsey healthcare researchers documented the shortage of medical

oxygen in developing countries, a long-standing problem made worse by COVID 19. New
ideas can help these regions meet short-term needs and set the foundation for a better
long-term future.
Our industry research focused on semiconductors and the industries that make and use
advanced electronics. Chips control everything from toys and smartphones to laptops and
thermostats. In the pandemic, demand has soared for many of these products—even as
supply chains have faltered and geopolitical tensions have risen. But will the boom last?
Such questions have semiconductor companies thinking about their manufacturing plants.
In a winner-take-all industry, even a slight edge in manufacturing can help a company
capture an outsize portion of revenues (exhibit). Our new report outlines the essential
ingredients of tomorrow’s successful fab.
Exhibit
Chipmakers and other advanced manufacturers have been running hot for six months now,
with some notable notches in their belts. One factory recently ran at more than 90 percent
capacity with only about 40 percent of the typical workforce. But few leaders think the pace
is sustainable. Our new report lays out what it will mean for companies to switch from
running on adrenaline to making organizational speed a permanent part of their cultures.
The pace is unlikely to slacken soon. As our new global survey suggests, the appetite for
automation has not dimmed. Instead, the factors for success are shifting. More and more,
successful organizations are nding ways for people to work in concert with new
technologies.
In fact, automation is among the key themes that can lift India to prosperity. That’s the
conclusion of a new report from McKinsey Global Institute published this week. The
pandemic has sounded a clarion call for India to accelerate growth. Our analysis suggests
that a program of targeted reforms, including greater productivity in several sectors, can
help the country produce the 90 million nonfarm jobs it needs to create by 2030.
This week, McKinsey researchers also examined cash management at privately owned
companies and reviewed lessons from the past for US governors and mayors planning a
second term.
Download the full brie ng materials .
Download the article .
We are in the thick of August, the time of year when many people take a break, or at least
slow down—even in a pandemic. With that in mind, McKinsey broadened its annual
summer reading list and asked 60 diverse leaders to share books that have inspired them,
that have provided a much-needed respite, or that they look forward to reading. We hope
you draw some inspiration from this list and nd ways to restore yourself during these
unusual times.
Speaking of reading, our special collection, The Next Normal: The recovery Will Be Digital,
has a 172-page curated volume that you can download —the rst of ve edited collections
produced to accompany Our New Future, a multimedia series we created with CNBC.
tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic, and a look at how our editors
choose images that help readers visualize the impact of an invisible threat.
McKinsey’s latest research looks at

restoring economic activity, today and
tomorrow.
This week, we returned to the overarching story of the pandemic: the twin imperatives of
saving lives and livelihoods. Our latest research builds on reports we published in April and
May 2020, and on recent academic ndings that the stringency of national lockdowns is
not well correlated with changes in GDP. In our new report , we nd that successful control
of the virus is the key to unlocking the economy, by restoring the con dence consumers
need to reengage in economic activity. In countries that have successfully controlled the
coronavirus (“near zero” countries), economic activity (in the form of discretionary mobility)
has returned to normal; in those that have not (“balancing act”), it is still about 40 percent
lower than before the pandemic (exhibit).
Exhibit
It seems that controlling the virus can get countries back to where they were at the start of
the year. But where do we go from there? A companion report outlines the future of
economic growth in the United States, by looking back at what worked well in the years
after the 2008 09 recession. Federal, state, and local governments can take a range of
actions to both improve productivity and stimulate demand. Among the most powerful is
investment in inclusive growth and unlocking the maximum productive potential of all
people in communities. For example, achieving gender equality could add $4 trillion to the
US economy, and closing the Black–white wealth gap could add a further $1.5 trillion.
Businesses, too, are eager to boost productivity and demand. Consumer companies may
feel these needs more acutely than most, as two reports published this week demonstrate.
McKinsey experts outlined the ve bold moves that consumer companies should make to
adapt their organizations to the exigencies of the crisis. Another requirement is to meet the
next-normal consumer . Seemingly every consumer behavior has been altered by the crisis;
companies need to adapt to big changes in how people get their information, what and
where they buy, and how they experience shopping.
This week, we also surveyed executives at cell and gene therapy companies about the
e ects of the pandemic; reviewed the challenges of securing digitally savvy talent at
aerospace and defense companies; calculated the signi cant impact of COVID 19 on
mining operations ; considered the prospects of upstream oil and gas operations ; and
surveyed lique ed natural gas buyers on their changing preferences.
We are in the thick of August, the time of year when many people take a break, or at least
slow down—even in a pandemic. With that in mind, McKinsey broadened its annual
summer reading list and asked 60 diverse leaders to share books that have inspired them,
that have provided a much-needed respite, or that they look forward to reading. We hope
you draw some inspiration from this list and nd ways to restore yourself during these
unusual times.
Speaking of reading, our special collection, The Next Normal: The recovery Will Be Digital,
has a 172-page curated volume that you can download —the rst of ve edited collections
produced to accompany Our New Future, a multimedia series we created with CNBC.
As consumer needs change with the ups

and downs of the pandemic, and
companies look for signs of recovery,
McKinsey continues to explore ways to
approach the next normal from leadership
and operational perspectives.
The abrupt halt of global travel during the COVID 19 crisis, aside from delaying personal
trips and vacations, has had a major impact on businesses across sectors. Companies with
workforces used to frequent travel—along with the airlines and hotels that depend on
revenue from that travel—have been particularly a ected. As companies continue to enforce
travel restrictions and workers resort to virtual meetings, travel-industry players are looking
to rebound from the crisis, but it may be a years-long road to recovery. Our latest
research shows that, historically, business travel rebounds from crises at a slower pace than
leisure travel (exhibit). As outbreaks in some regions stabilize and travel resumes, travel
providers can work to accommodate changing needs and, in turn, boost customer
con dence.
Exhibit
Our research this week explores how business operations may change as the travel industry
and other sectors reimagine the next normal in a world of physical distancing and evolving
consumer behaviors. For operationally intensive sectors, our analysis suggests that the
COVID 19 crisis has accelerated automation and digitization. Upskilling and reskilling the
workforce will become even more of a priority. For consumer-goods leaders , reshaping the
sales function and fostering collaboration between retailers and manufacturers will be
critical.
More broadly, our conversations with executives this week demonstrate that successfully
weathering the pandemic will also require a people-centered approach to internal and
remote leadership. Our interview with Steve Collis, CEO of AmerisourceBergen, considers
how a daily executive meeting can be used not only for decision making but also as an
opportunity to extend empathy to colleagues. Mike Henry, CEO of BHP, similarly tells
us that prioritizing people and building strong relationships has boosted the company’s
resilience. He says, “Against the backdrop of COVID 19, there’s a premium on getting out,
demonstrating empathy, and engaging with people to understand what their concerns are.”
This week we also analyzed how companies can mitigate risks in industrial supply
chains and utilize their procurement functions and spend analytics to bolster resilience;
explored ways behavioral-health leaders can build on the current momentum for change in
the industry; and looked at how Australia can gauge the scope of the pandemic’s e ects on
di erent industries and workforces and address cautious consumers .
Also this week: we’ve added a special collection, The Next Normal: The recovery Will Be
Digital. This 172-page volume is the rst of ve edited collections produced to accompany
Our New Future, a multimedia series we created with CNBC. You can download it here .
We’ve now reached August, the time of year when many people take a break, or at least
slow down—even in a pandemic. With that in mind, McKinsey broadened its annual summer
reading list and asked 60 diverse leaders to share books that have inspired them, that have
provided a much-needed respite, or that they look forward to reading. We hope you draw
some inspiration from this list and nd ways to restore yourself during these unusual times.
We continue to track economic and epidemiological developments around the world. For
an overview, read our latest brie ng materials (July 6, 2020). In 54 pages, we document
the current situation, the economic outlook, the forces shaping the next normal, and the
new organizational structures that can help companies keep pace sustainably.
o ce.
Banks are using new techniques to nd out

who’s ‘swimming naked.’ And new MGI
research looks at the cost of disruption in
global supply chains.
Millions of employees have lost their jobs and cannot pay their credit cards. Restaurants
and shops are only slowly reopening; many cannot pay their rent. Industrial companies can’t
make payments on their equipment leases. Landlords have less income and cannot keep up
with their mortgages. Suddenly, the world is awash in credit risk. Our new research shows
how banks are tending to a radical surge in demand for one of their most ancient practices:
measuring and monitoring credit risk . Leading banks are deploying a new con guration of
sector analysis, borrower resilience, and high-frequency analytics. They are moving past
sectoral analysis to take subsector views of the probability of default (exhibit). Some are
going even deeper, to understand what’s happening in the nancial life of their borrowers.
Exhibit
Like credit risk, supply chains have experienced intense disruption. This week, the
McKinsey Global Institute looked at the e ects not only of COVID 19 but of all manner of
disruptions, including natural disasters, geopolitical uncertainty, climate risk, cyberattacks,
and more. A key nding: over the course of a decade, companies can expect disruptions to
erase half a year’s worth of pro ts.
This week, McKinsey also had the privilege of speaking with three CEOs about what is
shaping up to be the de ning moment in their careers. Alain Bejjani, CEO of Majid Al
Futtaim, told us about the resilience needed to keep this Dubai-based operator of
shopping malls and other consumer real-estate businesses vital and relevant during the
crisis. Lance Fritz, CEO of Union Paci c Railroad, talked with us about tactics to stay
present in video calls and keep the board informed. Kristin Peck, the brand-new CEO of
animal-health company Zoetis, re ected on the core beliefs that have kept her company on
track through the crisis.
Also this week: a new report documents the disproportionate e ect of the pandemic on
Asian-American communities. And McKinsey’s industry research examined the potential for
greater collaboration with government in global tourism , outlined the moves that European
restaurants are taking to thrive in the next normal, considered how life insurers can use
arti cial intelligence to better underwrite risk, and reviewed the nascent Tech for
Good movement in the United Kingdom.
McKinsey continues to track economic and epidemiological developments around the
world. For an overview, read our latest brie ng materials (July 6, 2020). In 54 pages, we
document the current situation, the economic outlook, the forces shaping the next normal,
and the new organizational structures that can help companies keep pace sustainably. You
can also see the full collection of our coronavirus-related content, visual insights from our
“ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our rst 100 coronavirus articles , our suite of
note #16, July 30, 2020
Our latest executive survey reveals a

darkening outlook. But our review of
vaccine research provides a ray of hope.
This week, McKinsey covers the yin and
yang of the pandemic.
In North America and in developing markets, executives have become less hopeful about
their countries’ economies and more cautious in their views on potential scenarios for
COVID 19 recovery. That’s a key nding from our latest poll of more than 2,000 global
executives. Leaders in China and India, on the other hand, are growing more upbeat
(exhibit).
Exhibit
100
80
60
40
20
One thing that will certainly improve expectations in every country is news of a safe and
broadly available vaccine. Our latest research looks at global vaccine development and
nds that early data on safety and immunogenicity in Phase I and II trials are promising,
though limited. Our review of historical attrition rates suggests that the current pipeline may
yield more than seven approved products over the next few years, with some available for
emergency use late this year or early in the next. A new interview with Microsoft’s chief
technology o cer explains how arti cial intelligence is aiding vaccine development. After
development, it’s on to production, where we argue that tech transfer may be critical to
beating the disease.
Our new research on leadership in the crisis turned up several intriguing developments this
week, starting with the idea of creating a “to be” list. Our interview with the CEO of
Cincinnati Children’s Hospital talks about how leaders can choose to be generous and
genuine with some colleagues, and collaborative and catalytic with others. Leaders can also
acquaint their teams with lessons from the past . We looked at the post–World War II era,
when countries rebuilt from the ashes, to extrapolate ideas that are just as relevant now.
Finally, we identi ed the ways that leaders can shift mindsets and behaviors to reopen
safely.
In the COVID 19 crisis, many companies are nding new leaders in unexpected places, well
down the org chart. Some young middle managers are defying the problems and
frustrations of this di cult period to achieve far more than others. Leading companies are
capitalizing on this by installing four talent-management practices to thrive beyond the
pandemic. These companies are also revisiting the playbook of chief HR o cers , to
understand how the crisis has changed the game.
McKinsey’s industry-research teams were active this week, publishing new reports on the
resiliency of national banking systems ; the future of US freight and logistics ; the lessons of
past crises for mining companies ; the recovery of Germany’s travel industry ; and the next
normal for European bancassurance . Readers interested in banking should also see our
interview with the chairman of the State Bank of India, India’s largest lender and the world’s
largest digital bank. And bankers, retailers, and others should consult our must-see guide
on how to understand and shape consumer behavior .
and the new organizational structures that can help companies keep pace sustainably. You
note #15, July 23, 2020
Economic recovery depends on the return

of the consumer—but shopping will never
be the same. New McKinsey research
considers the possibilities.
and the new organizational structures that can help companies keep pace sustainably.
The ubiquitous face mask does more than protect against viral spread; it also changes the
way we look at one another—and thus symbolizes the mystery of customer behavior in the
pandemic. Several new McKinsey research e orts analyze the changes taking place in the
homes of consumers, on their phones, and in stores. “ Reimagining marketing in the next
normal ,” for example, documents six of the biggest shifts emerging from COVID 19. One of
the most intriguing is the rising importance of neighborhoods: with travel largely shut down,
marketers must gure out how to localize their outreach.
Another momentous shift: customers care more about sustainability : our survey nds that
European consumers want fashion rms to act responsibly by considering their social and
environmental impact. This survey is part of McKinsey’s comprehensive e ort to document
customer sentiment across dozens of countries throughout the pandemic.
Both consumer-goods makers and retailers have everything at stake in understanding
these shifts. For consumer companies , the future is about three things: getting better at
predicting demand, being alive to all the ways they might increase their sales, and using
agile techniques to sustain the hard-won momentum. For retailers —particularly grocers,
apparel companies, and restaurants—the way forward starts with new ideas about revenue
management (a fundamental rethink of products, pricing, and promotions might be in order)
and about operating models (especially store footprints, which will depend on how soon
cities reopen ). Such operational issues are paramount in Africa and Asia; our latest
research collects useful innovations from those regions and around the world.
B2B customers too are changing, and their providers must adapt. Our latest insights , based
on a detailed survey, suggest that B2B companies may be too focused on the here and now.
In times like these, rst movers do better than the competition by nding new pockets of
growth and reshaping go-to-market approaches to serve them.
Chief executives can help their marketing chiefs meet these goals, and much more besides.
As some of our most senior colleagues argue, this may be the CEO moment of our times.
Companies can reset themselves and their potential by embracing four shifts: unlocking
bolder (“10x”) aspirations, making their “to be” lists just as important as their “to do” lists,
fully embracing stakeholder capitalism, and harnessing the full power of CEO peer
networks.
This week, McKinsey researchers also considered the future of mobility in India , reviewed
the changes underway in Europe’s private banks , surveyed physicians about their
employment prospects, looked at the reset that supply chains need, and explored two hot
topics in tech: how to get value from cloud computing and the shifting priorities of
cybersecurity .
note #14, July 16, 2020
As many countries struggle to control the

pandemic, McKinsey remains tightly
focused on the global healthcare response
to it.
and the new organizational structures that can help companies keep pace sustainably.
This week, we reviewed the potential for South Africa’s small businesses to survive during
the pandemic and to thrive after it, considered the case for more M&A as corporate
India seeks to recover from the crisis, looked at the ways shared mobility might come back
after it ends, o ered recommendations on pricing for property and casualty insurers , and
pondered the future of packaging design (including an interview with the CEO of Sealed
Air).
But we focused mainly on healthcare systems. Testing is critical for containing COVID 19,
yet many countries still struggle with shortages of the necessary materials. Our new
article looks at ve parts of the testing process and examines the bottlenecks in each.
Some US laboratories, for example, have reported unused capacity to conduct tests, even
as patients and healthcare workers report di culty securing them. Similar mismatches have
arisen in the United Kingdom, and they are also showing up in supplies of reagents, test
kits, and other consumables. To x the problems, countries will have to make capacity more
visible by establishing information nerve centers .
Another focus of research is airborne transmission of the coronavirus. World Health
Organization guidelines now state that it may be possible indoors, especially for people who
spend signi cant amounts of time in crowded, poorly ventilated rooms. Our new article not
only o ers a primer on air puri cation, air ltration, and air ow management but also
examines the steps that building managers, safety experts, and others might take to
optimize air ows and ventilation indoors and to limit the spread of the virus.
This week also saw news about a successful vaccine trial. Thanks to that, the world may be
able to look ahead to the pandemic’s end. But as a McKinsey team writes, this is not the
last pandemic . To correct de ciencies in the surveillance of and response to infectious
diseases, governments will have to make substantial investments—but they will be well
worth the money (exhibit). Our research outlines the shifts needed in healthcare systems.
Exhibit
Ara Darzi, director of the United Kingdom’s Institute of Global Health Innovation, has similar
aspirations: he is simultaneously focusing on new ideas that can help tame COVID 19 and
on the longer term beyond it. In an interview with McKinsey’s Rodney Zemmel, Lord Darzi
explains how healthcare can transition from a “sickness service” to a “health and well-being
service.” One critical step is to recognize that “we have many pandemics—only we don’t call
them pandemics. We have the pandemics of obesity, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes.”
McKinsey Global Institute covered the substantial upside of addressing these chronic
conditions in a new report published last week.
note #13, July 9, 2020
As lockdowns lift, businesses are thinking

about their next moves. McKinsey research
o ers insights into the near future.
and the new organizational structures that can help companies sustainably keep pace. You
Around the world, economies are cautiously reopening. Businesses are keeping one eye
rmly on the here and now but also tentatively looking ahead to what’s shaping up as a
great reset. Our new research this week o ers several takes on this theme.
Start with the global pandemic’s front line: the healthcare sector. This week, the McKinsey
Global Institute published a new report , Prioritizing health: A prescription for prosperity,
which measures the potential of proven interventions to reduce the global burden of
disease. Taking advantage of them would not only alleviate a problem exposed by COVID 19
—people with diabetes, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder, and obesity
have been hit hardest—but also add, in our estimate , $12 trillion to global GDP in 2040.
Reimagining the workforce is another pressing task. Executives everywhere wonder how to
bring people back to the workplace and how they will do their jobs. Our new research takes
a look at the challenges of creating a sense of belonging, common purpose, and shared
identity when some people work in their homes and some in o ces and factories. Another
article considers the great reset’s tactical challenges, such as guarding against
cyberattacks on remote workers.
Small businesses confront some of these problems. But much as Ginger Rogers danced the
same steps as Fred Astaire—only backward and wearing high heels—small businesses must
make the necessary changes at a greater relative cost and with less working capital. Our
new research examines the struggles of US small businesses in three sectors (restaurants,
manufacturing, and retailing) that could be facing a long, hard recovery (exhibit).
Exhibit
Another sector thinking hard about its future is infrastructure . In the United States, two
scenarios are possible: a boom spurred by a government stimulus or a bust as tax revenues
and user fees dry up. Agencies and investors alike must prepare for both outcomes. One
key to generating a rapid impact from infrastructure spending is to repair existing assets.
This week we also look at global freight ows (down 13 to 22 percent this year) and the
varied potential for recovery, reviewed the implications of COVID 19 for the US food supply
chain , and considered the challenges of pricing in a pandemic.
COVID-19: Briefing note #12: July 2, 2020
One step forward, two steps back: the

pandemic is giving new depth of meaning
to that well-worn expression. Our new
research explores both parts of it.
world. For an overview, read our latest brie ng materials . In 94 pages, we document the
situation, show how countries and companies can transition toward the next normal, and
o er planning advice across multiple horizons. You can also see the full collection of our
coronavirus-related content , visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection
of our rst 100 coronavirus articles , and our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the
pandemic. New this week: a look at how our editors choose images that help readers
visualize the impact of an invisible threat.
In a week when the global pandemic seemed to gather strength, our new research both
shows the grim economic news and reveals a streak of optimism that many are starting to
feel. Our monthly global economic conditions snapshot indicates that 52 percent of
executives now say that their national economies are doing substantially worse, up from 10
percent in March 2020. Yet the proportion of executives who expect pro ts to rise within six
months rose by four percentage points, and leaders in retail, high tech, and telecom are
increasingly optimistic about the return of customer demand. In June, many more
executives around the world said that the economies of their home countries would soon be
doing better than had said so in May.
Another new global survey examined sentiment among people who make nancial
decisions for their households. Across the globe, they are reporting lower income, savings,
and spending. In most countries, 20 to 60 percent of these decision makers say they fear
for their own jobs. Roughly half have no more than four months of savings.
These grim statistics present a challenge for banks and other consumer-facing businesses,
such as telecom companies, retailers, health systems, and utilities. A delicate balancing act
awaits these organizations as they work to ensure that customers receive the necessary
support—and that lenders can continue to cultivate relationships with their borrowers—
while preserving shareholder value in the longer term. A detailed perspective on
utilities considers this and other conundrums. So does a new look at African banks .
The virus’s spread is accelerating, but businesses everywhere are both coping with their
urgent needs and looking ahead to the time when their employees can safely return to
work. As that moment comes closer—let us hope—three new research e orts show, rst,
how leaders can seize the moment to support their employees by building on the trust their
early e orts have engendered and, second, how they can engage employees through clear
and inspiring communication. And our survey of US companies shows that same insistent
streak of optimism: respondents expect most employees to be working onsite by December.
One lesson of the crisis is the need for speed: the pandemic obeys no speed limits, so
businesses have had to adapt through quick xes and workarounds. How can they keep
these successful innovations going over the long term? Our new research suggests nine
ways to reinvent the organization for speed.
This week, we also looked at how companies can reset their capital spending , demysti ed
the role of quantitative models , and talked with two McKinsey experts about how to choose
the right path to unlock the economy.
COVID-19: Briefing note #11: June 25,
2020
Every industry is adapting to life during a

pandemic. New McKinsey research
examines the implications for six sectors.
McKinsey continues to track economic and epidemiological developments in Europe and
around the world. For an overview, read our latest brie ng materials . In 94 pages, we
document the current situation and show how countries and companies can transition
toward the next normal and plan across multiple horizons. You can also see the full
collection of our coronavirus-related content , visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a
curated collection of our rst 100 coronavirus articles , and our suite of tools to help
leaders respond to the pandemic.
This week we zeroed in on critical developments in six major industries, starting with
consumer goods. Research we published last year ( here and here ) documented the recent
trends in consumer M&A and the ways that successful companies used acquisitions to
accelerate revenues and pro ts at a time when growth was elusive. Our latest
research reveals that COVID 19 has accelerated some of these trends and created new
realities. One critical nding: consumers are returning to big brands they know and trust.
While these companies accounted for only 16 percent of the industry’s growth in 2015 18,
that gure rose to 39 percent in 2018 19—and reached 55 percent in the rst three weeks
of April 2020.
In times of crisis, all eyes focus on the insurance sector. This week, we surveyed insurance
agents in China, the rst country to reopen. The outlook there is complex: some lines, such
as health insurance, fared well, while others, such as property and casualty, su ered
signi cant declines and are just now recovering.
At semiconductors companies, the pandemic has posed questions for every aspect of the
business model. Our April 2020 research outlined the potential shifts in demand. This
week’s update o ers scenarios in which demand might revive, and the ways that
companies can adapt while also preparing the enterprise to emerge stronger in the next
normal.
Software makers are also in the midst of (yet another) disruption. For the past ten years, the
rise of software as a service (SaaS) has reshaped the enterprise-software industry. Growth
accelerated, but industry pro tability tumbled. Our research nds that the next ten
years will be just as tumultuous. SaaS companies are at a crossroads: COVID 19 will
accelerate the footprint of SaaS, given the growth of remote working, the rapid deployment
of digital solutions, and the lower up-front costs.
Like many other industries, engineering and construction has had to reimagine how work
gets done. This week, we spoke with an industry leader, who revealed the ways that his
company has adapted.
Finally, while small business might not be an industry, it is a mighty economic sector that
employs tens of millions of people in the United States. Our new research nds that
between 1.4 million and 2.1 million US small businesses could close permanently as a result
of the rst four months of the pandemic. Certain sectors are particularly at risk (exhibit).
Exhibit
This week, we also examined the priorities for companies in India to thrive in the next
normal; reviewed the early returns on post-COVID 19 discretionary spending in China,
India, and Indonesia; and considered the lessons of the past that might prove helpful as
policy makers seek to revive the US economy . Finally, we were privileged to speak with two
remarkable leaders, Mellody Hobson of Ariel Investments and Hubert Joly of Best Buy,
about the challenges of leadership in extraordinary times.
COVID-19: Briefing note #10: June 18,
2020
Our latest research focuses on recovery in

Europe.
Governments worldwide have already allocated more than $13 trillion to stabilize
economies in freefall and restart growth. These measures, written and delivered at speed,
have succeeded in many ways. But as the crisis drags on, new questions are arising. Is the
money directed in the best possible way? And is more needed?
This week, McKinsey researchers looked at ways to ll the gaps that COVID 19 has created
in US state budgets . Worldwide, we estimate that government de cits could reach $30
trillion by 2023. That’s a sobering gure. But we believe that if governments and the private
sector work together as never before, they can avoid the disastrous consequences of
massive de cits, lay the foundations for a new social contract, and begin to shape a
postcrisis era of shared, sustainable prosperity.
Our new research on Europe suggests that governments can start by distinguishing
between sectors that can navigate the crisis safely, and others, such as those that were
already in decline and were then badly hit by the crisis, that may need structural change. In
Germany, for example, you will nd both types of sectors in abundance (exhibit).
Exhibit
McKinsey continues to track economic and epidemiological developments in Europe and
around the world. For an overview, read our latest brie ng materials . In 94 pages, we
document the current situation and show how countries and companies can transition
toward the next normal and plan across multiple horizons. You can also see the full
collection of our coronavirus-related content , visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a
curated collection of our rst 100 coronavirus articles , and our suite of tools to help
leaders respond to the pandemic.
This week we documented many of the COVID 19-related shifts taking place in Europe. A
critical issue now coming to a head concerns privacy : How do companies comply with the
European General Data Protection Regulation and also support contact tracing and testing
measures? Another is mobility: transportation systems may be permanently altered in the
crisis. Our new research on the United Kingdom outlines the implications.
Some of those concern the many UK start-ups o ering novel transport solutions. This week,
our new research found that small and medium-size businesses in the United Kingdom
face dire prospects: one in ve may not survive past August 2020. In the recovery,
European governments cannot do all the heavy lifting; our analysis suggests that European
foundations have a window of opportunity to step up their actions and play an essential role
in national rebuilding and recovery e orts. And we interviewed a leading UK dealmaker on
the potential to restart major capital projects through standby agreements and other moves
that keep projects on track.
This week, we also presented ideas for retailers to rede ne value and a ordability for newly
strapped consumers, addressed big shifts in physicians’ behavior , explained why insurers
need to revamp their distribution models , and considered a safer, better future for travel .
COVID-19: Briefing note #9: June 11, 2020
Our latest research examines the social

risks of COVID 19.
Even as societies and businesses race to reopen, the global pandemic still poses
signi cant problems. This week, we documented an accelerating one: loneliness. In many
parts of the world, the social fabric was already fraying before the pandemic. Now, as former
US surgeon general Vivek H. Murthy, MD, points out , COVID 19 is disconnecting us further
from our human relationships. That might cause a “social recession, with profound
consequences for our health, for our productivity in the workplace, for how our kids do in
school.”
McKinsey is tracking developments on all these fronts. For an overview, read our latest
brie ng materials . In 94 pages, we document the current economic and epidemiological
situation and show how to transition toward the next normal and to plan across multiple
horizons. You can also see the full collection of our coronavirus-related content , visual
insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our rst 100 coronavirus
articles , and our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the pandemic.
This week, we investigated loneliness and other e ects of the lockdown and physical
distancing in Europe. Across the Continent, the proportion of people who say that they feel
lonely “most or all of the time” has nearly tripled. Loneliness is higher in countries, such as
Bulgaria and Greece, where trust and satisfaction with relationships were already at low
levels in 2018.
For many, the cure for loneliness might be a return to the o ce, the subject of some of our
latest research . Many people say they are happy working from home. But could their
happiness be running on fumes of the social capital built up through years of water-cooler
conversations, meetings, and social engagements? Has working from home succeeded only
because it is viewed as temporary, not permanent? Hundreds of billions in real-estate
investment are riding on these questions.
Most industries are engaged in similarly momentous discussions. This week we published
new perspectives on the fashion , hospitality , infrastructure , institutional-investing ,
nursing , and public-transport sectors . We also reviewed developments in Spain and Africa
( payments and food supplies ), as well as trillion-dollar ideas for governments around the
world.
Although the news is bleak, Vivek Murthy sees cause for optimism : “I think that this could
be an extraordinary opportunity for us to step back and ask ourselves if we’re leading the
kind of lives that we really want to lead. This is our chance to ask ourselves where people t
in our priority list and whether there’s a gap between our stated priorities and our lived
priorities.”
COVID-19: Briefing note #8: June 4, 2020
This has been an extremely painful time for communities across the United States and
beyond, even as the pandemic continues to take its toll. We are amplifying our commitment
to do our part to ensure that black lives are spoken for and valued, both inside our rm and
beyond. Our ongoing research on the US racial-wealth gap and on diversity and inclusion is
intended to clarify some of the underlying issues and potential paths forward.
Research we published in April called out the disproportionate e ects of COVID 19 on
black Americans, who are almost twice as likely to live in the counties where the risk to
health and economic activity is highest if and when contagion strikes (exhibit). Many of
these places were the scene of this week’s anguished protests.
Exhibit
Our newest research looks at the pandemic’s e ects on US minority-owned small
businesses . Vulnerable even before the pandemic, it has struck them disproportionately
hard. Many of them are in the industries most susceptible to health and economic problems,
such as accommodations and food services, retail, and healthcare. Owners are innovating
and staying exible, helping their communities to cope with the crisis. But these businesses
are highly vulnerable; they need help from the private, public, and social sectors.
Similar dynamics a ict US minority students. Previous McKinsey research has

demonstrated the costs of a sizable achievement gap between white students and black
and Hispanic ones. Our latest research , published this week, nds that the pandemic not
only threatens to widen the achievement gap but also poses problems for all learners. The
hurt could last a lifetime.
People of color are vulnerable to yet another e ect of the COVID 19 crisis as it a ects large
companies. Previous crises show there is a very real risk that as companies adapt to new
ways of working, inclusion and diversity may unintentionally recede as strategic priorities.
Yet as our latest report on inclusion and diversity argues, that would place companies at a
disadvantage: they could not only face a backlash from customers and talent now but also,
down the line, fail to better position themselves for growth and renewal.
McKinsey continues to research many aspects of leadership through the crisis. This week,
we reported on dozens of our new research e orts, including the emerging
themes dominating boardrooms; the post-COVID 19 future for US rail and trucking
companies ; the lessons learned from Asia’s manufacturing and supply chains ; a new
approach to tracking demand for travel ; the potential for telehealth ; and the safety
protocols that hospitals, grocery stores, and others have used to stay open.
Our latest brie ng pack details, across 94 pages, the current economic and
epidemiological situation, how to transition to the next normal, and planning across multiple
horizons. Please also see the full collection of content , visual insights from our “ chart of the
day ,” a curated collection of our rst 100 coronavirus articles , and our suite of tools to
help leaders respond to the pandemic.
COVID-19: Briefing note #7, May 27, 2020
New insights on consumer sentiment and

the return to work.
The Memorial Day weekend in the United States, always a somber occasion and never
more so than this year, seemed to mark a turning point in the COVID 19 crisis. As spring
turned to summer, many US regions started to reopen, as did others in Europe, Latin
America, and Asia. Despite ongoing public-health concerns, the desire to spend and shop is
palpable. This week, McKinsey published new surveys of consumers in Argentina ,
Australia , Brazil , Central America , and the United States , detailing the strength of the
consumer urge in each country. The outlook is brighter. Consumers are less anxious and
depressed about health concerns. Business executives are a bit more optimistic this
month than last. And our new surveys of global B2B buyers and those in Asia and
Europe suggest that con dence is holding rm.
That said, the picture these surveys paint is complex. In a sense, the world is turning from
“resilience” to “return”—the third of the ve pandemic elements we sketched out in late
March. To get back to business, many companies are running spreadsheets to see how
many people spaced six feet apart will t in an o ce, planning one-way paths through the
workplace, and guring out adaptations to restrooms, lunchrooms, and entrances. All of
those are critical tasks, but they are not enough. What’s needed is a return “muscle” : an
enterprise-wide ability to absorb uncertainty and incorporate lessons into the operating
model quickly.
One of the skills that will help with that urgent need is surely analytics, widely recognized for
its problem-solving and predictive prowess, which is becoming a modern-day sextant to
navigate the COVID 19 crisis. Analytics can help tackle numerous urgent tasks facing
businesses today: forecasting demand, identifying potential supply-chain disruptions,

targeting support services to at-risk workers, and determining the e ectiveness of crisis-
intervention strategies, to name a few.
Also on that list: improving the experience of customers, many of them frightened, some
jobless, and all of them deeply uncertain about the next normal. To renew and refresh their
connections to the people they serve, companies need to recognize what’s happening now ,
and respond in three ways: digital excellence, safe and contactless engagement, and
dynamic customer insights.
These are just a few of the issues McKinsey has researched and written about in recent
days to help companies and countries lead through the crisis. Please see the full collection
of content , visual insights from our “ chart of the day ,” a curated collection of our rst 100
coronavirus articles , and our suite of tools to help leaders respond to the coronavirus
outbreak.
COVID-19: Briefing note #6, May 13, 2020
Emerging evidence provides some

tantalizing glimpses into the epidemiology
of the global pandemic.
By Matt Craven, Mihir Mysore, and Matthew

Wilson
As the reopening of economies continues across much of Europe and North America, it’s
worth taking stock of the epidemiological situation and trends that will de ne the months
ahead. At the time of this writing, the o cial counts of cases and deaths from COVID 19
have passed four million and 280,000, respectively. Recent studies have made increasingly
clear that each of these gures is a signi cant underestimate. Population antibody surveys
suggest that o cial counts are underestimating the true number of cases by a factor of ve
or more (although in several cases the methodology has been called into question) (Exhibit
1).
Exhibit 1
Comparisons of 2020 and 2019 mortality rates show that substantially more people are
dying this year, although we don’t know how much of this is due to missed deaths from
COVID 19 rather than excess mortality from other causes (Exhibit 2).
Exhibit 2
The pandemic and public health—five

trends to watch
With lives at stake, a thoughtful approach is paramount. Here are the ve emerging trends
that private-sector leaders need to monitor.
There are still many places where the

epidemic is getting worse
While much of the media narrative is about reopening, many countries, including several of
the largest emerging economies, are still on the “upslope” of the epidemic, with daily case
counts increasing (Exhibit 3). While an increasing number of countries and regions have
proven that they can use lockdowns to drive a reduction in cases, to date, we have few
examples of success outside higher-income countries. The next few weeks will be critical
tests of our ability to “bend the curve” in more countries with varying contexts and
healthcare capacity. In some of these countries, the absolute number of deaths is relatively
low; interventions against COVID 19 will need to be viewed through the lens of both lives
and livelihoods.
Exhibit 3
Reopening is a massive natural experiment

—make sure you learn from it
We have never before attempted to shut down the modern global economy, much less
reopen it in the setting of an ongoing pandemic. We have a few examples of strategies that
seem to work better, or worse, but none of us know with any certainty the best actions.
Even places with strong initial responses like Hong Kong and Singapore have faced
challenges as they reopen.[ 14 ] China has also seen an increase in cases in the past few
days.[ 15 ]
In the United States, there is only a loose correlation between disease prevalence and plans
for reopening. States with more cases generally plan to reopen later, but there are
exceptions.
A similar point can be made about businesses’ plans to reopen. Companies are planning
di erent approaches, even based on the same underlying fact base. This implies that
leaders across the public and private sectors should build learning and adaptation into their
reopening plans from the start. Relevant lessons might come from other geographies, other
sectors, or from peers and competitors. Leaders should be prepared to incorporate new
information and alter their approaches, either incrementally or radically, as new information
becomes available.
Resurgence seems to be not a question of if but when, where, and how bad. Many experts
are focused on a potential second wave of COVID 19 in the northern hemisphere this
autumn.[ 16 ] This is certainly possible. But focusing on the risks of autumn and winter causes
us to look past the summer, which is risky because it is sooner and because it is when many
jurisdictions will be reopening and testing.
R is important, but so is the absolute

number of new cases
Over the past few months, many have become more familiar with epidemiological concepts
like the reproduction number (R) of a virus. R de nes the transmissibility of a pathogen, as
measured by the average number of people to whom each infected person transmits. R is a
measure of change; it tells us how fast the epidemic will expand or shrink. Values greater
than one de ne a growing epidemic, while those less than one de ne a shrinking one.
R has been getting a lot of attention, for example, in de ning the packages of interventions
that can yield R<1 in a given setting. But the absolute number of cases is also important.
Imagine two cities, each with an R of 0.9, implying a slightly declining epidemic. But one of
the cities has 1,000 new cases per day and the other has ten. The former faces a far higher
risk in reopening than the latter.
In practice, we are seeing countries and regions take divergent approaches to this question
(Exhibit 4). Hubei Province in China waited until reported cases were near zero to reopen,
whereas Italy and Spain took the rst steps to reopening with daily case counts at more
than 1,000. Every location needs to balance public-health and economic imperatives; we
can’t say which approach is better, but we are likely to learn more about what works in the
weeks and months ahead.
Exhibit 4
It’s (still) all about testing, tracing, and

targeted quarantine
Signi cant resources are required to run a program of testing, contact tracing, isolation, and
quarantine at the required scale, but relative to the economics of lockdowns or global
recession, these costs are trivial. Many countries are still far short of where they need to be
on testing, and contact-tracing programs remain a patchwork. Our recent article provides
more details on contact tracing. Strengthening these programs remains an urgent priority
for many geographies. This point is no less important for having been made frequently.
In any country, here are the four metrics to watch in assessing the strength of test, trace,
and quarantine e orts:
Test positivity rate, which measures (imperfectly) the extent to which testing systems
are capturing all cases. The World Health Organization recommends a target of less
than 10 percent positivity.
Tests per million population, a measure of the depth of testing.
Average number of contacts identi ed per case, which measures how e ective
contact-tracing systems are at identifying and isolating the likely next generation of
cases. The gure will tend to be lower in lockdown settings than when people are
moving and interacting freely.
Fraction of cases arising from contact lists, a measure of the portion of cases arising
from known sources versus undetected community transmission.
An element of transmission dynamics now beginning to receive more attention is
transmission within households.[ 17 ] We may need to rethink the current model of home
isolation and develop modi ed strategies for mild and asymptomatic cases given that
isolation can prove di cult for many. Any new model should of course ensure a comfortable
experience for those who test positive, so that they’re strongly inclined to follow the
recommended approach.
Innovation—and clinical evidence—leads to

hope
The speed and scale of the R&D response to the COVID 19 outbreak is unprecedented in
human history, with billions of dollars being spent and committed in pursuit of drugs,
vaccines, and diagnostics for the virus. Today, there are more than 150 vaccines in the
pipeline, and 200 drug candidates. On diagnostics, beyond the RT PCR[ 18 ] and classic
lateral- ow immunoassays already in use for many viral and antibody tests, new
technologies such as CRISPR[ 19 ] have already been granted emergency-use authorization
by the US Food and Drug Administration.[ 20 ]
The past few months have seen the launch of numerous trials in an e ort to nd therapies
and vaccines—with some challenges from studies that are too small in size, or not
randomized or controlled. As of early May, more than 1,700 trials are in progress targeting
COVID 19 and related complications. More of these are randomized and controlled clinical
studies—and some are starting read out results, providing evidence to support new
approaches to prevent and manage COVID 19 infection and associated complications. The
expert consensus is that enhanced treatments for COVID 19 will likely be available by the
end of 2020; and only 12 to 18 months will likely be needed[ 21 ] to bring a vaccine to market
at su cient scale for widespread immunization, compared with the typical ve or more
years. Some developers have even indicated a vaccine may be available sooner for limited
use, with an emergency-use authorization for health workers issued as early as this fall.[ 22 ]
Here are ve areas to watch:
The great vaccine-platform race. At the time of writing, 13 vaccines are already in
clinical trials, and the full pipeline spans a massive range of platforms, including RNA,
DNA, inactivated viruses, protein subunits, and virus-like particles (VLPs). The virus
and viral-vector approaches are traditional; others are nascent. Each platform will
start to produce data in the months ahead, starting with evidence of vaccine safety
and then potentially demonstrations of immunogenicity (and even e cacy) toward the
end of the year, though we still need to better understand the link between
immunogenicity and correlates of protection. While having multiple platforms in
development increases the likelihood of a successful vaccine, each platform has

di erent competitors, ranging from smaller biotech companies to multinationals, as
well as distinct manufacturing requirements, with implications for the scale-up of
capacity.
A more nuanced understanding of the uses of di erent therapeutics. The initial
discussion on drugs has focused almost exclusively on repurposed antivirals and
antimalarials for treatment. The 200-plus candidates currently in development cover a
broad range of use cases—from postexposure to prophylaxis, and from mild and
moderate to severe cases. The more than 1,700 active trials are expanding the focus
from drugs that directly attack the virus to those that confer immunity and to those
that target complications of COVID 19 such as cytokine-release syndrome (CRS) and,
more recently, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Labs are deploying a wide
array of platforms, from repurposed antivirals (as mentioned above) to monoclonal
and polyclonal antibodies to neutralize the virus to immune modulators for
ARDS/cytokine storms, and even cell-therapy approaches for late-stage disease. The
emergency-use authorization for remdesivir is an important milestone for COVID 19
drug development as well. In the coming months, we anticipate that a more nuanced
understanding of the di erent use cases and the types of approaches being tested
will help reduce the mortality rate of COVID 19 and also change the standard of care.
A new normal and unrealized opportunity for data sharing. Unlike the experience with
prior epidemics (including Ebola), COVID 19 has been characterized by
unprecedented sharing of prepublication data, analyses, and results via medRxiv, a
collaborative platform. This proliferation of information can support innovation and
has been rapidly integrated into both the media and policy discussions—sometimes,
however, to unfortunate e ect. Looking forward, as the scienti c community seeks to
make meaningful interpretations of the thousands of running studies, we need to
bring together the patient-level data from the hundreds of small, undersize, not-well-
controlled, compassionate-use, and observational studies, in a responsible way.
Meta-analyses of such studies will help us know if therapies actually work, at what
dosing and clinical regimen. There are e orts underway in the ecosystem to address
this—and hopefully a collaborative model emerges that could remain with us

postpandemic.
The impact of novel R&D models. Competitors are collaborating in ways never
expected.[ 23 ] Companies are banding together in multilateral collaborations, some
formal and some informal, to advance innovation. For example, leading plasma
manufacturers are partnering in novel ways to produce a single unbranded
immunoglobulin product; more than 15 pharmacos are collaborating in a COVID 19
R&D forum to advance, individually and collectively, the most promising drugs and
vaccines; and decades-long competitors Sano and GSK are partnering on COVID 19
vaccine development. Novel master protocols, often with inspired names (such as
Solidarity, Recovery, and ACTT), are being used to simultaneously test multiple drugs.
[ 24 ] Innovators are deploying novel development plans and trial designs as well; for
example, P zer and BioNTech are simultaneously testing four vaccines in their
combined Phase I/II study. These approaches are not without risk given the parallel
work in traditionally sequential stage-gated processes.
The challenge of separating the signal from the noise. With Ebola, a substantial R&D
mobilization ran into di culties recruiting patients to test all of the approaches being
considered. Some of these same challenges are happening with COVID 19. Ensuring
that studies are well controlled and appropriately powered will be critical to
understanding what actually works. Further, data sharing will hold the key to advance
our understanding and interrogation of the bene t/risk trade-o . Multiple
prioritization e orts are attempting to do this but are still in the early stages. In some
ways, the scale of the mobilization may be the biggest challenge.
About the authors

Matt Craven, MD, is a partner in McKinsey’s Silicon Valley o ce. Mihir Mysore is a partner
in the Houston o ce. Matt Wilson is a senior partner in the New York o ce.
This article was edited by Mark Staples, an executive editor in the New York o ce.
COVID-19: Briefing note #5, April 13, 2020
Our latest perspectives on the coronavirus

pandemic.
By Matt Craven, Mihir Mysore, Shubham

Singhal, and Matt Wilson
In this note, we o er some of our latest insights on the COVID 19 pandemic, starting with a
survey of the current epidemiology and the ve dynamics leaders need to watch: the
e cacy of the surge in critical care, the expansion of testing and other traditional
approaches, the development of antibody testing, the unknown nature of immunity, and a
wave of innovation that might produce treatments and vaccines.
We then highlight four of our many recently published articles, each designed to help senior
executives think through the challenges of restarting economies. These and many more
articles are available in our collection of coronavirus thinking.
The outbreak is moving quickly, and some perspectives here may soon be out of date. This
article re ects our perspective as of April 13, 2020. We will update it regularly as the crisis
evolves.
COVID-19: Where we are, and where we

might be heading
COVID 19 continues to spread rapidly around the world. Almost every country has reported
cases, but the burden is asymmetrically distributed. In the past seven days (April 6 12), 46
percent of new con rmed cases have been reported in Europe and 39 percent in the United
States. To an extent, that’s because countries are at di erent stages of the pandemic. Some
that were e ective at initial containment, such as Singapore and Hong Kong, have seen
resurgence and are implementing additional measures to address it. Others, such as many
countries in Western Europe, have seen the number of new cases plateau or begin to
decline and are debating the right approach to reopening their economies. Some countries
appear to be at the peak of infection and are urgently building surge capacity in their health
systems. In other parts of the world, the number of cases is rising rapidly. Countries such as
Russia and Turkey are seeing a recent acceleration. India too has experienced a signi cant
increase in the number of cases since the beginning of April and has evolved its response
strategy, including extending the nationwide lockdown.
The public-health tools and approaches to be deployed vary considerably based on this
status (Exhibit 1). Measures including physical distancing, travel restrictions, e ective use of
personal protective equipment (PPE), testing and tracing, and healthcare surge capacity
require more or less emphasis, depending on epidemic phase and local context. Local use
of these measures varies considerably—physical distancing may be near-impossible in
crowded urban settings, for example, and the apps and digital tools for contact tracing like
those used in China may not be acceptable in other parts of the world. Another challenge is
the dependencies among these measures: to take one example, the timeliness and
stringency of physical distancing measures substantially in uences how other tools should
be deployed.
Exhibit 1
Although a consensus has emerged around the use of physical distancing to slow
transmission in many high-prevalence settings, a few countries, such as Sweden, are

pursuing an alternative “herd immunity” strategy focused on protecting the most vulnerable
populations while using only limited distancing measures to atten the curve for others. The
goals are to maintain many aspects of economic and social life today and, over time, to
develop a large enough pool of exposed people (about 70 to 80 percent) to “protect the
herd.” Other countries are closely watching the outcome of this approach.
The months ahead will probably be quite volatile and dynamic. It now appears likely that
some places will experience a local resurgence as restrictions are lifted and economies
reopen. That will in uence countries at the earliest stages. For example, Singapore has
seen a resurgence mainly from imported cases, which have led to local transmission; this
suggests that restrictions on international travel may continue. As China gradually reopens,
the tactics it used (including group-based isolation models and setting a norm of wearing
masks in the workplace) and their e cacy will inform approaches around the world.
Western Europe’s experience in relaxing restrictions, and the most successful approaches
there, will inform the approaches deployed in the United States.
Considering the variety of approaches in use, public understanding and consensus will
evolve day by day. We will continue to nd out more about the coronavirus—how it is
mutating, the duration of immunity, its transmission dynamics, and so on. For example, it
now appears that the virus probably won’t be highly seasonal, given the recent rapid growth
in a number of hot spots in the Southern Hemisphere. But it is still possible that the arrival
of summer in the Northern Hemisphere will slow transmission somewhat, as some studies in
both labs and natural contexts suggest.[ 25 ]
With all this in mind, we believe that leaders should closely watch ve health-response
dynamics in the coming weeks:
The e cacy of the health-system surge and how it is maintained over time. Countries
with rapidly increasing numbers of cases are nding ways to expand their critical-care
capacity massively. Their ability to do so, and to push mortality from COVID 19 to
lower levels, will not only save lives but also engender con dence in their health
systems’ ability to manage a resurgence. Over time, as cases plateau and then
decline, there will be questions about how long to maintain surge capacity while also
guarding against resurgence. Providers will be under pressure to consider the
broader context of a capacity surge; for example, in the United States, the mass
cancellation of elective medical procedures and the associated nancial hardship for
many providers is likely to force di cult discussions about which procedures should
be allowed to restart, and when. Other e ects of surge capacity, on vaccine-
preventable diseases and maternal and child health, will also be critical to monitor.
The scaling of traditional public-health approaches. In parallel with the surge in
critical care, countries also need to think about building surge capacity in traditional
public-health approaches—disease surveillance, contact tracing, and targeted
quarantines. Such a surge must build on current e orts to scale viral testing rapidly,
mostly through RT PCR[ 26 ] machines. Exhibit 2 shows the somewhat surprising
relationship between testing and the number of cases—generally, countries that have
tested more people have diagnosed fewer cases per thousand people. Moreover, to
detect and control are-ups quickly, widespread access to viral testing will become
increasingly important as countries and cities prepare to relax distancing measures. In
some countries, this testing capacity could be paired with at-scale contact tracing,
with privacy-by-design embedded; and quarantine facilities to help localize hot spots
and prevent a broader resurgence.
Exhibit 2
The development of antibody testing and understanding of sero-prevalence. We have
little idea how many people have been exposed to this coronavirus. One recent study
in a hard-hit area of Germany showed that about 14 percent of the population has
been—far from the levels of exposure required for herd immunity to emerge but
higher than many had expected.[ 27 ] A lot of other studies are underway to assess the
portion of the population exposed to COVID 19. If individual or herd immunity is to
play a meaningful role in reopening, antibody tests to measure exposure must be
widely available. While many such tests are being developed, their accuracy and
availability have been challenged. The arrival of accurate, widely available antibody
tests will help countries understand how close they are to achieving herd immunity
and whether they can use immunity as a meaningful signal to start reopening.
The nature of immunity. People exposed to other coronaviruses have exhibited
durable immunity for several years after exposure. Everyone hopes the same holds
true for the novel coronavirus, but we don’t know for sure. Emerging reports of
recovered patients testing positive again on RT PCR acute-infection tests raise
questions about reactivation, as do studies in China showing very low levels of
antibodies among some infected people. While it is unlikely that the duration of
immunity is short, any new information about this issue would require a signi cant
shift in strategy.
Innovation. There has been an unprecedented burst of global pharmaceutical R&D
related to COVID 19. Today, more than 130 therapeutic candidates and 80 vaccine
candidates are under consideration across a range of modalities and use cases, such
as treatment of severe disease and pre-exposure prophylaxis. If drugs already
approved for other indications prove e ective in treating COVID 19, they could be
deployed most quickly, but in coming months readouts on experimental new drugs
will also arrive. The massive scale-up of clinical trials—especially randomized
placebo-controlled studies—will provide evidence to guide clinical decisions.
Similarly, the unprecedented consortium of plasma companies generates hope that
hyperimmune immunoglobulin can be developed quickly. Seven vaccines are already

being tested in humans.[ 28 ] Although at-scale production and distribution is not likely
for 12 to 18 months after a successful trial, these vaccines would provide a critical
element in the armamentarium against COVID 19. For all these innovations, a central
challenge will be rapidly scaling up production to meet global needs.
Getting back to work: Four insights
The pandemic’s economic challenges are unprecedented. Since the crisis began, McKinsey
has published more than 70 articles on the extraordinary public-health and economic
impact, as well as the ideas that government and business leaders need to safeguard lives
and livelihoods. In the past week, four articles have captured the attention of leaders around
the world. We summarize these articles here and invite you to take in the full collection .
‘How to restart national economies during

the coronavirus crisis’
by Andres Cadena, Felipe Child, Matt Craven, Fernando Ferrari, David Fine, Juan Franco,
and Matthew Wilson
The threat of COVID 19 to lives and livelihoods will fully resolve only when enough people
are immune to the disease to blunt transmission, either from a vaccine or direct exposure.
Until then, governments that want to restart their economies must have public-health
systems that are strong enough to detect and respond to cases.
The rst and most obvious factor in determining readiness is the number of new cases in a
given area. Regions with signi cant ongoing transmission should expect that restarting
economic activity will only lead to more transmission. Case numbers and, more importantly,
hospitalizations need to be low enough for a health system to manage individually rather
than through mass measures. A second factor in thinking about this is the strength of the
systems in place for detecting, managing, and preventing new cases, including adequate
medical capacity, especially of intensive care units (ICUs), for those with severe disease; the
ability to perform a diagnostic test for COVID 19 with a fast turnaround time; and several
other elements.
If we combine a system’s level of strength with an assessment of the intensity of virus
transmission, we can evaluate any region’s readiness to restart activity (Exhibit 3). These
two dimensions determine four stages of readiness to reopen the economy, with Stage 4
the least ready and Stage 1 the most.
Exhibit 3
‘Europe needs to prepare now to get back

to work—safely’
by David Chinn, Hauke Engel, Daniel Härtl, Milena Quittnat, Pal Erik Sjatil, Marja Seidel,
Sven Smit, Sebastian Stern, and Eckart Windhagen
As European countries begin to consider how to exit lockdowns, local leaders are often the
people best placed to evaluate conditions and impose measures that maximize economic
recovery while protecting public health. Decisions about which measures to deploy, when
and where, should be made locally—if possible, district by district—because there are
material di erences in the severity of the crisis and economic circumstances (Exhibit 4).
Exhibit 4
Authorities will need three essential elements to ensure robust implementation. First,
leaders will require e ective, ready-to-act local-authority structures. In Italy, regional

governments collaborated with Rome to establish a national lockdown that allowed regions
to apply more stringent rules as necessary.
Second, solutions and directives must be clear and simple, so that the public and
businesses can understand them. This might require using new communication channels,
such as mobile messaging.
Third, measures must be consistent. If the guidance one day is that shops can admit ve
people at a time for six hours a day and in the next week that rule changes to two people for
eight hours, the results will be irritation, noncompliance, and the erosion of trust in public
authorities.
‘Winning the (local) COVID 19 war’

by Tom Latkovic, Leah Pollack, and Jordan VanLare, MD
Local US leaders, such as mayors and governors, have an outsized role in the ght against
COVID 19. We see six domains for engagement:
Foundational public health. We assessed 23 public-health interventions and
identi ed the most fundamental ones.
Societal compliance. We monitored di erent approaches to ensure compliance and
found a steeper decline in infections where communities enforced policies tightly
(through arrests, for example) than in those that used only nes.
Health-system capacity. To prevent demand for healthcare services from outstripping
supply, we found that at least a doubling of critical-care capacity is probably possible
and necessary, at least temporarily, across most parts of the United States.
Industry safeguards. If the risk of contagion continues for 12 to 18 months, public- and
private-sector leaders should promote the most e ective adaptations and safeguards
to economic activity, including physical barriers, face guards, physical distancing,
health screenings before entry, and generous and exible sick leave. Sectors will vary
in how critical they are and their ability to safeguard.
Protection of the vulnerable. COVID 19 is especially destabilizing for vulnerable
populations, including people with chronic physical- or behavioral-health conditions,
limited mobility, advanced age, and unmet health-related social needs, such as food
and housing insecurity. Each will require targeted interventions.
Economic health. Local leaders need to develop a fact base on their economies and
then ensure that money from new and current programs gets into the hands of
citizens quickly and easily.
‘Could the next normal emerge from Asia?’

by Oliver Tonby and Jonathan Woetzel
The COVID 19 outbreak began in Asia—but so have early indications of containment, new
protocols, and the resumption of economic activity. Although the risk of another outbreak
remains, economic-activity indicators in China suggest that urban activities are returning to
pre-outbreak levels. Tra c congestion and residential-property sales are close to where
they stood in early January 2020. Air pollution and coal consumption have returned to 74
and 85 percent, respectively, of their January 1 levels. A recent McKinsey survey of 2,500
Chinese consumers indicates “cautious optimism”—a gradual regaining of con dence,
which should increase spending. At this moment, strong public-health responses in China,
Singapore, and South Korea appear to have been successful. Signi cant evidence indicates
that the curve of cumulative con rmed COVID 19 patients in Asia is becoming atter.
As companies in the region resume activity, they may be the world’s rst to shape the “next
normal.” What will that look like? Four dimensions could de ne it:
Rethinking social contracts. In crises, the state plays an essential and expanded role,
protecting people and organizing the response. This power shift transforms long-held
expectations about the roles of individuals and institutions.
De ning the future of work and consumption. The crisis has propelled new
technology across all aspects of Asian life, from e-commerce to remote-working and -
learning tools, including Alibaba’s DingTalk, WeChat Work, and Tencent Meeting. New
working and shopping practices will probably become a permanent xture of the next
normal.
Mobilizing resources at speed and scale. Within weeks, China added tens of
thousands of doctors and hospital beds. Several governments invested in new tools
to map transmission and rolled out huge economic-stimulus plans. Asia has a proven
ability to mobilize resources in a crisis.
Moving from globalization to regionalization. The pandemic has exposed the world’s
risky dependence on vulnerable nodes in global supply chains. China, for example,
accounts for about 50 to 70 percent of global demand for copper, iron ore,
metallurgical coal, and nickel. We could see a massive restructuring as production
and sourcing move closer to end users and companies localize or regionalize their
supply chains.
About the authors

Matt Craven, MD, is a partner in McKinsey’s Silicon Valley o ce. Mihir Mysore is a partner
in the Houston o ce. Shubham Singhal is a senior partner in the Detroit o ce. Matt
Wilson is a senior partner in the New York o ce.
COVID-19: Briefing note #4, March 30,
2020
Our latest perspectives on the coronavirus

pandemic.
By Matt Craven, Mihir Mysore, Shubham

Singhal, Sven Smit, and Matt Wilson
The pandemic continues to expand. More than 175 countries and territories have reported
cases of COVID 19, the disease caused by the coronavirus (SARS CoV 2). Case growth has
accelerated to more than 735,000 cases and 35,000 deaths as of March 30. Some
geographies have a handful of cases, others with early community transmission have a few
hundred, and those with uncontrolled, widespread transmission have tens of thousands.
Governments have launched unprecedented public-health and economic responses. The
situation evolves by the day.
In this note, we o er some of our latest insights, starting with ve likely epidemiologic swing
factors that will largely determine the contours of the pandemic in the next year. We then
summarize two new articles designed to help senior executives lead through the crisis. In
“ Beyond coronavirus: The path to the next normal ,” we outline ve time frames to help
leaders organize their thinking and responses. And in “ Safeguarding our lives and our
livelihoods: The imperative of our time ,” we explain how business and society can and must
take on both spheres of action, right away. These and many more are available in our
collection of coronavirus thinking. We conclude with a short list of the areas in which
executives should be concentrating their thought and attention.
Epidemiological swing factors for COVID-

19
Every country is looking to join the few that have controlled the epidemic for now and are
focusing on preventing a resurgence. The next stages in every country are unknowable
(Exhibit 1). But in our view, the spread or control of the virus in the next year comes down to
ve factors:
Growth of new transmission complexes and evidence of seasonality. While most
countries in the world have at least one case, most counts are relatively low. The
extent to which these countries follow the path of countries such as Singapore that
have achieved rapid control, versus that of western Europe and the United States, will
be a major driver of outcomes. Moreover, these geographies also skew to more
tropical climates and will provide some evidence on how much of a mitigating e ect
heat and humidity will have on the coronavirus. If the virus proves to be seasonal, this
has the potential to shape both emerging and existing transmission complexes.
Impact of physical-distancing measures. We know that rigorous, at-scale physical-
distancing measures can drive a signi cant reduction in the number of new COVID 19
cases. However, given the range of approaches in use—and the varying stringency
with which they are being applied—there’s much still to learn about what exactly
works and how long it takes. In the next one to two weeks, we will learn much more,
as we begin to see evidence of the impact of physical distancing in Europe and the
United States.
E cacy of health-system surge. As the world has awakened to the potential risks of
COVID 19, there has been a massive e ort to add capacity to the healthcare system
rapidly. This has rightly focused on adding acute-care capacity, providing ventilators,
and building stocks of other critical medical supplies, such as personal protective
equipment. If this surge (combined with e orts to reduce the demand on the health
system) can prevent health systems from being overwhelmed, mortality from COVID-
19 will be signi cantly lower. The development of clinically validated treatments could
be a similar boon, but the emerging evidence on that front is mixed, thus far.
Readiness of the health system to navigate recurrence. As authorities begin to think
about what’s needed to navigate a postpeak environment, the public-health tools
deployed will have a di erent emphasis from today’s focus in Europe and the United
States. They will include at-scale testing, sophisticated real-time surveillance,

rigorous contact tracing, and rapid, targeted quarantine to isolate cases and contacts.
This mix of tools is how Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan have rapidly contained COVID-
19. An antibody test would be a powerful tool in this arsenal, since it would show
which people are at risk and which aren’t. Even as public-health authorities negotiate
an unprecedented period of demand on the health system, they will need to design
and build systems to prevent resurgence of the disease as we pass the peak.
Emergence of herd immunity. Herd immunity occurs when a su cient portion of the
population isn’t susceptible to an infectious disease; at that point, transmission

doesn’t propagate, for lack of available hosts. It typically occurs through either
widespread exposure or immunization. With a disease as infectious as COVID 19,
experts believe that more than two-thirds of the population would need to be immune
to create herd immunity.[ 29 ] But there’s much that we don’t know about the possibility
of multiple strains of the virus—and about the duration of human immunity. Answering
those questions will have important implications for the course of the pandemic.
Exhibit 1
Two new insights
We have recently published several new articles on the pandemic. Two have captured the
attention of leaders worldwide. We summarize them here and invite you to take in the full
case in our collection .
‘Beyond coronavirus: The path to the next

normal’
By Kevin Sneader and Shubham Singhal
What will it take to navigate this crisis, now that our traditional metrics and assumptions
have been rendered irrelevant? More simply put, it’s our turn to answer a question that many
of us once asked of our grandparents: What did you do during the war?
Our answer is a call to act across ve stages, leading from the crisis of today to the next
normal that will emerge after the battle against coronavirus has been won: Resolve,
Resilience, Return, Reimagination, and Reform (Exhibit 2).
Exhibit 2
Collectively, these ve stages represent the imperative of our time: the battle against
COVID 19 is one that leaders today must win if we are to nd an economically and socially
viable path to the next normal.
‘Safeguarding our lives and our livelihoods:

The imperative of our time’
By Sven Smit, Martin Hirt, Kevin Buehler, Susan Lund, Ezra Greenberg, and Arvind
Govindarajan
We see enormous energy invested in suppressing the coronavirus, while many urge even
faster and more rigorous measures. We also see enormous energy expended on stabilizing
the economy through public-policy responses. However, to avoid permanent damage to our
livelihoods, we need to nd ways to “timebox” this event: we must think about how to
suppress the virus and shorten the duration of the economic shock.
To aid decision makers, we have developed scenarios, based on three likely paths for the
spread of the virus and the public health response, and three potential levels of
e ectiveness for governmental economic response (Exhibit 3).
Exhibit 3
Many leaders currently expect one of the scenarios shaded in Exhibit 3 (A1 A4) to
materialize. In each of these, the COVID 19 spread is eventually controlled, and catastrophic
structural economic damage is avoided. These scenarios describe a global average, while
situations will inevitably vary by country and region. But all four of these scenarios lead to V-
or U-shaped recoveries.
Other, more extreme scenarios can also be conceived, and some of them are already being
discussed (B1 B5 in Exhibit 3). One can’t exclude the possibility of a “black swan of black
swans”: structural damage to the economy, caused by a yearlong spread of the virus until a
vaccine is widely available, combined with the lack of policy response to prevent widescale
bankruptcies, unemployment, and a nancial crisis.
Steps to take now
Amid the chaos and all the incoming advice, it’s hard to know exactly what leaders should
do today. We suggest they focus their time on four areas:
Support and protect employees in this brave new world. Many institutions have put
basic protections in place for their employees and customers. Companies have
activated no-travel and work-from-home policies for some workers and physical-
distancing-at-work measures for others. The challenge is evolving. For remote
workers, interruptions are more frequent than in the o ce. Making a mental
separation from a sometimes-chaotic home life is tough. Workers are nding that they
don’t have the skills to be successful in an extended remote environment, from
networking to creating routines that drive productivity. They worry that staying remote
could make them less valuable, especially in a recessionary environment.
As our colleagues recently explained, three goals are essential. Companies need to
increase communication, balancing the needs of the business with expectation
setting and morale building, so employees know that their well-being is top of mind.
They also need to change working norms, making remote work practical and simple
whenever possible. And of course, they must protect people’s health, with whatever
measures are appropriate to the workplace: positive hygiene habits, personal
protective equipment, amended sick-leave policies—whatever it takes to ensure
health and safety.
Monitor leading indicators of how and where the pandemic is evolving and conduct
scenario planning using both epidemiological and economic inputs. Earlier, we
sketched out the swing factors to watch to understand how the coronavirus pandemic
might develop. As companies develop scenarios, they might want to consider the
article “Safeguarding our lives and our livelihoods: The imperative of our time,” which
details McKinsey’s nine epidemiologic and economic scenarios.
Think about the next horizons of COVID 19. In the urgency of the moment, it’s easy to
lose sight of the actions that might be needed tomorrow—and the day after that. The
article “Beyond coronavirus: The path to the next normal,” explains the ve horizons
that every executive should use to ensure an organization’s rapid response,

adaptation to change, and reemergence in a position of strength.
Evolve the nerve center to plan for the next phase. Every assumption underpinning a
business is open to question. To take one example, we might be in the midst of the
largest drawdown in demand since the Second World War. The pendulum might not
swing back fully once the outbreak has relented. Having experienced a new way of
living, consumers are recalibrating their spending, increasing the likelihood that
spending may permanently shift between categories and that online services could
get adopted far faster. Decoding this new normal—and ensuring that the company
has a strategy to navigate it—is an important part of the work of a nerve center.
Approaches such as using a portfolio of initiatives and planning for decision making
under uncertainty can go a long way toward creating a compass for business leaders
to follow.
The next normal will look unlike any in the years preceding the coronavirus, the pandemic
that changed everything. In these brie ng notes, we aim to provide leaders with an
integrated perspective on the unfolding crisis and insight into the coming weeks and
months.
About the authors

Matt Craven is a partner in McKinsey’s Silicon Valley o ce, Mihir Mysore is a partner in the
Houston o ce, Shubham Singhal is a senior partner in the Detroit o ce, Sven Smit is a
senior partner in the Amsterdam o ce, and Matt Wilson is a senior partner in the New York
o ce.
2020
Current perspectives on the coronavirus

outbreak.
At the time of writing, there have been more than 160,000 con rmed cases of COVID 19
and more than 6,000 deaths from the disease. Older people, especially, are at risk (Exhibit
1). More than 140 countries and territories have reported cases; more than 80 have
con rmed local transmission. Even as the number of new cases in China is falling (to less
than 20, on some days), it is increasing exponentially in Italy (doubling approximately every
four days). China’s share of new cases has dropped from more than 90 percent a month ago
to less than 1 percent today.
Exhibit 1
WHO declared COVID 19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020. In its message, it balanced the
certainty that the coronavirus (SARS CoV 2) will inevitably spread to all parts of the world,
with the observation that governments, businesses, and individuals still have substantial
ability to change the disease’s trajectory. In this note, we describe emerging archetypes of
epidemic progressions; outline two scenarios for the pandemic and its economic e ects;
and observe some of the ways that business can improve on its early responses.
Our perspective is based on our analysis of past emergencies and our industry expertise. It
is only one view, however. Others could review the same facts and emerge with a di erent
view. Our scenarios should be considered only as two among many possibilities. This
perspective is current as of March 16, 2020. We will update it regularly as the outbreak
evolves.
Archetypes for epidemic progression
Many countries now face the need to bring widespread community transmission of
coronavirus under control. While every country’s response is unique, there are three
archetypes emerging—two successful and one not—that o er valuable lessons. We present
these archetypes while acknowledging that there is much still to be learned about local
transmission dynamics and that other outcomes are possible:
Extraordinary measures to limit spread. After the devastating impact of COVID 19

became evident in the Hubei province, China imposed unprecedented measures—
building hospitals in ten days, instituting a “lockdown” for almost 60 million people
and signi cant restrictions for hundreds of millions of others, and using broad-based
surveillance to ensure compliance—in an attempt to combat the spread. These
measures have been successful in rapidly reducing transmission of the virus, even as
the economy has been restarting.
Gradual control through e ective use of public-health best practices. South Korea
experienced rapid case-count growth in the rst two weeks of its outbreak, from
about 100 total cases on February 19 to more than 800 new cases on February 29.
Since then, the number of new cases has dropped steadily, though not as steeply as
in China. This was achieved through rigorous implementation of classic public-health
tools, often integrating technology. Examples include rapid and widespread
deployment of testing (including the drive-through model) (Exhibit 2), rigorous
contact tracing informed by technology, a focus on healthcare-provider safety, and
real-time integrated tracking and analytics. Singapore and Taiwan appear to have
applied a similar approach, also with broadly successful results.
Exhibit 2
20,000 1,000
800
15,000
600
10,000
400
5,000
200
0 0
Unsuccessful initial control, leading to overwhelmed health systems. In some
outbreaks where case growth has not been contained, hospital capacity has been
overwhelmed. The disproportionate impact on healthcare workers and lack of
exibility in the system create a vicious cycle that makes it harder to bring the
epidemic under control.
There are also other approaches being considered (such as a focus on reaching herd
immunity); the impact of these is unclear.
Two scenarios
Based on new information that emerged last week, we have signi cantly updated and
simpli ed our earlier scenarios. A number of respected institutions are now projecting very
high case counts. The most pessimistic projections typically give the virus full credit for
exponential growth but assume that humans will not respond e ectively—that is, they
assume that many countries will fall into the third archetype described earlier. We believe
this is possible but by no means certain. The scenarios below outline two ways that the
interplay between the virus and society’s response might unfold and the implications on the
economy in each case. Exhibit 3 lays out a number of critical indicators that may provide
early notice of which scenario is unfolding.
Exhibit 3
Prev 01 — 04
04
03
02 Ne
Delayed recovery
Epidemiology. In this scenario, new case counts in the Americas and Europe rise until mid-
April. Asian countries peak earlier; epidemics in Africa and Oceania are limited. Growth in
case counts is slowed by e ective social distancing through a combination of national and
local quarantines, employers choosing to restrict travel and implement work-from-home
policies, and individual choices. Testing capacity catches up to need, allowing an accurate
picture of the epidemic. The virus proves to be seasonal, further limiting its spread. By mid-
May, public sentiment is signi cantly more optimistic about the epidemic. The Southern
Hemisphere winter sees an uptick in cases, but by that point, countries have a better-
developed playbook for response. While the autumn of 2020 sees a resurgence of
infections, better preparedness enables continued economic activity.
Economic impact. Large-scale quarantines, travel restrictions, and social-distancing
measures drive a sharp fall in consumer and business spending until the end of Q2,
producing a recession. Although the outbreak comes under control in most parts of the
world by late in Q2, the self-reinforcing dynamics of a recession kick in and prolong the
slump until the end of Q3. Consumers stay home, businesses lose revenue and lay o
workers, and unemployment levels rise sharply. Business investment contracts, and
corporate bankruptcies soar, putting signi cant pressure on the banking and nancial
system.
Monetary policy is further eased in Q1 but has limited impact, given the prevailing low
interest rates. Modest scal responses prove insu cient to overcome economic damage in
Q2 and Q3. It takes until Q4 for European and US economies to see a genuine recovery.
Global GDP in 2020 falls slightly.
Prolonged contraction
Epidemiology. In this scenario, the epidemic does not peak in the Americas and Europe
until May, as delayed testing and weak adoption of social distancing stymie the public-
health response. The virus does not prove to be seasonal, leading to a long tail of cases
through the rest of the year. Africa, Oceania, and some Asian countries also experience
widespread epidemics, though countries with younger populations experience fewer deaths
in percentage terms. Even countries that have been successful in controlling the epidemic
(such as China) are forced to keep some public-health measures in place to prevent
resurgence.
Economic impact. Demand su ers as consumers cut spending throughout the year. In the
most a ected sectors, the number of corporate layo s and bankruptcies rises throughout
2020, feeding a self-reinforcing downward spiral.
The nancial system su ers signi cant distress, but a full-scale banking crisis is averted
because of banks’ strong capitalization and the macroprudential supervision now in place.
Fiscal and monetary-policy responses prove insu cient to break the downward spiral.
The global economic impact is severe, approaching the global nancial crisis of 2008 09.
GDP contracts signi cantly in most major economies in 2020, and recovery begins only in
Q2 2021.
Responding to COVID-19: What

companies are missing
Our conversations with hundreds of companies around the world on COVID 19 challenges
have allowed us to compile a view of the major work streams that companies are pursuing
(Exhibit 4).
Exhibit 4
While this list is fairly comprehensive, some companies are taking other steps. However, we
have seen evidence that many companies are nding it hard to get the major actions right.
We have consistently heard about ve challenges.
Having an intellectual understanding isn’t

the same as internalizing the reality
Exponential case-count growth is hard to internalize unless you have experienced it before.
Managers who haven’t experienced this or been through a “tabletop” simulation are nding
it di cult to respond correctly. In particular, escalation mechanisms may be understood in
theory, but companies are nding them hard to execute in reality, as the facts on the ground
don’t always conform to what it says in the manual. Crisis case studies are replete with
examples of managers who chose not to escalate, creating worse issues for their
institutions.
Employee safety is paramount, but

mechanisms are ine ective
Policy making at many companies is scattershot, especially at those that haven’t yet seen
the coronavirus directly. Many, such as professional-services and tech companies, lean very
conservative: their protection mechanisms often add to a perception of safety without
actually keeping people safer. For instance, temperature checks may not be the most
e ective form of screening, given that the virus may transmit asymptomatically. Asking
employees to stay at home if they are unwell may do more to reduce transmissibility. Such
policies are more e ective if employees receive compensation protection—and insulation
from other consequences too.
Some companies aren’t thinking through the second-order e ects of their policies. For
example, a ban on travel without a concomitant work-from-home policy can make the o ce
very crowded, leading to higher risk of transmission. Others are adopting company-wide
policies without thinking through the needs of each location and each employee segment.
Optimism about the return of demand is

dangerous
Being optimistic about demand recovery is a real problem, especially for companies with
working-capital or liquidity shortages and those veering toward bankruptcy. Troubled
organizations are more likely to believe in a faster recovery—or a shallower downturn.
Facing up to the possibility of a deeper, more protracted downturn is essential, since the
options available now, before a recession sets in, may be more palatable than those
available later. For example, divestments to provide needed cash can be completed at a
higher price today than in a few weeks or months.
Assumptions across the enterprise are

misaligned
Some companies are pursuing their coronavirus responses strictly within organizational
silos (for example, the procurement team is driving supply-chain e orts, sales and
marketing teams are working on customer communications, and so on). But these teams
have di erent assumptions and tend to get highly tactical, going deep in their own
particular patch of weeds rather than thinking about what other parts of the company are
doing—or about what might come next.
The near term is essential, but don’t lose

focus on the longer term (which might be
worse)
Immediate and e ective response is, of course, vital. We think that companies are by and
large pursuing the right set of responses, as shown in Exhibit 4. But on many of these work
streams, the longer-term dimensions are even more critical. Recession may set in. The
disruption of the current outbreak is shifting industry structures. Credit markets may seize
up, in spite of stimulus. Supply-chain resilience will be at a premium. It may sound
impossible for management teams that are already working 18-hour days, but too few are
dedicating the needed time and e ort to responses focused on the longer term.
The coronavirus crisis is a story with an unclear ending. What is clear is that the human
impact is already tragic, and that companies have an imperative to act immediately to
protect their employees, address business challenges and risks, and help to mitigate the
outbreak in whatever ways they can.
For the full set of our latest perspectives, please see the attached full brie ng materials ,
which we will update regularly. We welcome your comments and questions at
[email protected] .
For more of the latest information on COVID 19, please see reports from the European
Centre for Disease Control and Prevention , the US Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention , and WHO ; and the live tracker of global cases from Johns Hopkins University.
2020
A range of outcomes is possible. Decision

makers should not assume the worst.
Less than ten weeks have passed since China reported the existence of a new virus to the
World Health Organization. This virus, now known as SARS CoV 2, causing COVID 19
disease, spread quickly in the city of Wuhan and throughout China. The country has
experienced a deep humanitarian challenge, with more than 80,000 cases and more than
3,000 deaths. COVID 19 progressed quickly beyond China’s borders. Four other major
transmission complexes are now established across the world: East Asia (especially South
Korea, with more than 7,000 cases, as well as Singapore and Japan), the Middle East
(centered in Iran, with more than 6,500 cases), Europe (especially the Lombardy region in
northern Italy, with more than 7,300 cases, but with widespread transmission across the
continent), and the United States, with more than 200 cases. Each of these transmission
complexes has sprung up in a region where millions of people travel every day for social and
economic reasons, making it di cult to prevent the spread of the disease. In addition to
these major complexes, many other countries have been a ected. Exhibit 1 ( see an updated
version of the exhibit here ) o ers a snapshot of the current progress of the disease and its
economic impact.
The next phases of the outbreak are profoundly uncertain. In our view, the prevalent
narrative, focused on pandemic, to which both markets and policy makers have gravitated
as they respond to the virus, is possible but underweights the possibility of a more
optimistic outcome. In this brie ng note, we attempt to distinguish the things we know from
those we don’t, and the potential implications of both sets of factors. We then outline three
potential economic scenarios, to illustrate the range of possibilities, and conclude with
some discussion of the implications for companies’ supply chains, and seven steps
businesses can take now to prepare.
Our perspective is based on our analysis of past emergencies and on our industry expertise.
It is only one view, however. Others could review the same facts and emerge with a di erent
view. Our scenarios should be considered only as three among many possibilities. This
perspective is current as of March 9, 2020. We will update it regularly as the outbreak

evolves.
What we know, and what we are

discovering
What we know. Epidemiologists are in general agreement on two characteristics of COVID-
19:
The virus is highly transmissible. Both observed experience and emerging scienti c
evidence show that the virus causing COVID 19 is easily transmitted from person to
person. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that the virus’s
reproduction number (the number of additional cases that likely result from an initial
case) is between 1.6 and 2.4, making COVID 19 signi cantly more transmissible than
seasonal u (whose reproduction number is estimated at 1.2 to 1.4) (Exhibit 2).
Exhibit 2
The virus disproportionately a ects older people with underlying conditions.
Epidemiologists Zunyou Wu and Jennifer McGoogan analyzed a report from China
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that looked at more than 72,000 cases
and concluded that the fatality rate for patients 80 and older was seven times the
average, and three to four times the average for patients in their 70s.[ 30 ] Other
reports describe fatality rates for people under 40 to be 0.2 percent.
What we are still discovering. Three characteristics of the virus are not fully understood, but
are key variables that will a ect how the disease progresses, and the economic scenario
that evolves:
The extent of undetected milder cases. We know that those infected often display
only mild symptoms (or no symptoms at all), so it is easy for public-health systems to
miss such cases. For example, 55 percent of the cases on board the Diamond
Princess cruise ship did not exhibit signi cant symptoms (even though many
passengers were middle-aged or older). But we don’t know for sure whether o cial
statistics are capturing 80 percent, 50 percent, or 20 percent of cases.
Seasonality. There is no evidence so far about the virus’s seasonality (that is, a
tendency to subside in the northern hemisphere as spring progresses). Coronaviruses

in animals are not always seasonal but have historically been so in humans for
reasons that are not fully understood. In the current outbreak, regions with higher
temperatures (such as Singapore, India, and Africa) have not yet seen a broad, rapid
propagation of the disease.
Asymptomatic transmission. The evidence is mixed about whether asymptomatic
people can transmit the virus, and about the length of the incubation period. If
asymptomatic transfer is a major driver of the epidemic, then di erent public-health
measures will be needed.
These factors notwithstanding, we have seen that robust public-health responses, like
those in China outside Hubei and in Singapore, can help stem the epidemic. But it remains
to be seen how these factors will play out and the direct impact they will have. The
economic impact too will vary considerably.
Economic impact
In our analysis, three broad economic scenarios might unfold: a quick recovery, a global
slowdown, and a pandemic-driven recession. Here, we outline all three. We believe that the
prevalent pessimistic narrative (which both markets and policy makers seem to favor as they
respond to the virus) underweights the possibility of a more optimistic outcome to COVID-
19 evolution.
Quick recovery
In this scenario, case count continues to grow, given the virus’s high transmissibility. While
this inevitably causes a strong public reaction and drop in demand, other countries are able
to achieve the same rapid control seen in China, so that the peak in public concern comes
relatively soon (within one to two weeks). Given the low fatality rates in children and
working-age adults, we might also see levels of concern start to ebb even as the disease
continues to spread. Working-age adults remain concerned about their parents and older
friends, neighbors, and colleagues, and take steps to ensure their safety. Older people,
especially those with underlying conditions, pull back from many activities. Most people
outside the transmission complexes continue their normal daily lives.
The scenario assumes that younger people are a ected enough to change some daily
habits (for example, they wash hands more frequently) but not so much that they shift to
survival mode and take steps that come at a higher cost, such as staying home from work
and keeping children home from school. A complicating factor, not yet analyzed, is that
workers in the gig economy, such as rideshare drivers, may continue to report to work
despite requests to stay home, lest they lose income. This scenario also presumes that the
virus is seasonal.
In this scenario, our model developed in partnership with Oxford Economics suggests that
global GDP growth for 2020 falls from previous consensus estimates of about 2.5 percent
to about 2.0 percent. The biggest factors are a fall in China’s GDP from nearly 6 percent
growth to about 4.7 percent; a one-percentage-point drop in GDP growth for East Asia; and
drops of up to 0.5 percentage points for other large economies around the world. The US
economy recovers by the end of Q1. By that point, China resumes most of its factory output;
but consumer con dence there does not fully recover until end Q2. These are estimates,
based on a particular scenario. They should not be considered predictions.
Global slowdown
This scenario assumes that most countries are not able to achieve the same rapid control
that China managed. In Europe and the United States, transmission is high but remains
localized, partly because individuals, rms, and governments take strong countermeasures
(including school closings and cancellation of public events). For the United States, the
scenario assumes between 10,000 and 500,000 total cases. It assumes one major
epicenter with 40 to 50 percent of all cases, two or three smaller centers with 10 to 15
percent of all cases, and a “long tail” of towns with a handful or a few dozen cases. This
scenario sees some spread in Africa, India, and other densely populated areas, but the
transmissibility of the virus declines naturally with the northern hemisphere spring.
This scenario sees much greater shifts in people’s daily behaviors. This reaction lasts for six
to eight weeks in towns and cities with active transmission, and three to four weeks in
neighboring towns. The resulting demand shock cuts global GDP growth for 2020 in half, to
between 1 percent and 1.5 percent, and pulls the global economy into a slowdown, though
not recession.
In this scenario, a global slowdown would a ect small and mid-size companies more
acutely. Less developed economies would su er more than advanced economies. And not
all sectors are equally a ected in this scenario. Service sectors, including aviation, travel,
and tourism, are likely to be hardest hit. Airlines have already experienced a steep fall in
tra c on their highest-pro t international routes (especially in Asia–Paci c). In this
scenario, airlines miss out on the summer peak travel season, leading to bankruptcies
(FlyBe, the UK regional carrier, is an early example) and consolidation across the sector. A
wave of consolidation was already possible in some parts of the industry; COVID 19 would
serve as an accelerant.
In consumer goods, the steep drop in consumer demand will likely mean delayed demand.
This has implications for the many consumer companies (and their suppliers) that operate
on thin working-capital margins. But demand returns in May–June as concern about the
virus diminishes. For most other sectors, the impact is a function primarily of the drop in
national and global GDP, rather than a direct impact of changed behaviors. Oil and gas, for
instance, will be adversely a ected as oil prices stay lower than expected until Q3.
Pandemic and recession

This scenario is similar to the global slowdown, except it assumes that the virus is not
seasonal (una ected by spring in the northern hemisphere). Case growth continues
throughout Q2 and Q3, potentially overwhelming healthcare systems around the world and
pushing out a recovery in consumer con dence to Q3 or beyond. This scenario results in a
recession, with global growth in 2020 falling to between –1.5 percent and 0.5 percent.
Supply-chain challenges
For many companies around the world, the most important consideration from the rst ten
weeks of the COVID 19 outbreak has been the e ect on supply chains that begin in or go
through China. As a result of the factory shutdowns in China during Q1, many disruptions
have been felt across the supply chain, though the full e ects are of course still unclear.
Hubei is still in the early phases of its recovery; case count is down, but fatality rates remain
high, and many restrictions remain that will prevent a resumption of normal activity until
early Q2. In the rest of China, however, many large companies report that they are running
at more than 90 percent capacity as of March 1. While some real challenges remain, such as
lower than usual availability of migrant labor, there is little question that plants are returning
back to work quickly.
Trucking capacity to ship goods from factories to ports is at about 60 to 80 percent of
normal capacity. Goods are facing delays of between eight and ten days on their journey to
ports.
The Baltic Dry Index (which measures freight rates for grains and other dry goods around
the world) dropped by about 15 percent at the onset of the outbreak but has increased by
nearly 30 percent since then. The TAC index, which measures air-freight prices, has also
risen by about 15 percent since early February.
In the next few months, the phased restart of plants outside Hubei (and the slower progress
of plants within Hubei) is likely to lead to challenges in securing critical parts. As inventories
are run down faster, parts shortages are likely to become the new reason why plants in
China cannot operate at full capacity. Moreover, plants that depend on Chinese output
(which is to say, most factories around the world) have not yet experienced the brunt of the
initial Chinese shutdown and are likely to experience inventory “whiplash” in the coming
weeks.
Perhaps the biggest uncertainty for supply-chain managers and production heads is
customer demand. Customers that have prebooked logistics capacity may not use it;
customers may compete for prioritization in receiving a factory’s output; and the
unpredictability of the timing and extent of demand rebound will mean confusing signals for
several weeks.
Responding to COVID-19
In our experience, seven actions can help businesses of all kinds. We outline them here as
an aid to leaders as they think through crisis management for their companies. These are
only guidelines; they are by no means exhaustive or detailed enough to substitute for a
thorough analysis of a company’s particular situation.
Protect your employees. The COVID 19 crisis has been emotionally challenging for many
people, changing day-to-day life in unprecedented ways. For companies, business as usual
is not an option. They can start by drawing up and executing a plan to support employees
that is consistent with the most conservative guidelines that might apply and has trigger
points for policy changes. Some companies are actively benchmarking their e orts against
others to determine the right policies and levels of support for their people. Some of the
more interesting models we have seen involve providing clear, simple language to local
managers on how to deal with COVID 19 (consistent with WHO, CDC, and other health-
agency guidelines) while providing autonomy to them so they feel empowered to deal with
any quickly evolving situation. This autonomy is combined with establishing two-way
communications that provide a safe space for employees to express if they are feeling
unsafe for any reason, as well as monitoring adherence to updated policies.
Set up a cross-functional COVID 19 response team. Companies should nominate a direct
report of the CEO to lead the e ort and should appoint members from every function and
discipline to assist. Further, in most cases, team members will need to step out of their day-
to-day roles and dedicate most of their time to virus response. A few workstreams will be
common for most companies: a) employees’ health, welfare, and ability to perform their
roles; b) nancial stress-testing and development of a contingency plan; c) supply-chain
monitoring, rapid response, and long-term resiliency (see below for more); d) marketing and
sales responses to demand shocks; and e) coordination and communication with relevant
constituencies. These subteams should de ne speci c goals for the next 48 hours, adjusted
continually, as well as weekly goals, all based on the company’s agreed-on planning
scenario. The response team should install a simple operating cadence and discipline that
focuses on output and decisions, and does not tolerate meetings that achieve neither.
Ensure that liquidity is su cient to weather the storm. Businesses need to de ne
scenarios tailored to the company’s context. For the critical variables that will a ect revenue
and cost, they can de ne input numbers through analytics and expert input. Companies
should model their nancials (cash ow, P&L, balance sheet) in each scenario and identify
triggers that might signi cantly impair liquidity. For each such trigger, companies should
de ne moves to stabilize the organization in each scenario (optimizing accounts payable
and receivable; cost reduction; divestments and M&A).
Stabilize the supply chain. Companies need to de ne the extent and likely duration of their
supply-chain exposure to areas that are experiencing community transmission, including

tier-1, -2, and -3 suppliers, and inventory levels. Most companies are primarily focused on
immediate stabilization, given that most Chinese plants are currently in restart mode. They
also need to consider rationing critical parts, prebooking rail/air-freight capacity, using
after-sales stock as a bridge until production restarts, gaining higher priority from their
suppliers, and, of course, supporting supplier restarts. Companies should start planning
how to manage supply for products that may, as supply comes back on line, see unusual
spikes in demand due to hoarding. In some cases, medium or longer-term stabilization may
be warranted, which calls for updates to demand planning, further network optimization,
and searching for and accelerating quali cation of new suppliers. Some of this may be
advisable anyway, absent the current crisis, to ensure resilience in their supply chain—an
ongoing challenge that the COVID 19 situation has clearly highlighted.
Stay close to your customers. Companies that navigate disruptions better often succeed
because they invest in their core customer segments and anticipate their behaviors. In
China, for example, while consumer demand is down, it has not disappeared—people have
dramatically shifted toward online shopping for all types of goods, including food and
produce delivery . Companies should invest in online as part of their push for omnichannel
distribution; this includes ensuring the quality of goods sold online. Customers’ changing
preferences are not likely to go back to pre-outbreak norms.
Practice the plan. Many top teams do not invest time in understanding what it takes to plan
for disruptions until they are in one. This is where roundtables or simulations are invaluable.
Companies can use tabletop simulations to de ne and verify their activation protocols for
di erent phases of response (contingency planning only, full-scale response, other).
Simulations should clarify decision owners, ensure that roles for each top-team member are
clear, call out the “elephants in the room” that may slow down the response, and ensure
that, in the event, the actions needed to carry out the plan are fully understood and the
required investment readily available.
Demonstrate purpose. Businesses are only as strong as the communities of which they are
a part. Companies need to gure out how to support response e orts—such as by providing
money, equipment, or expertise. For example, a few companies have shifted production to
create medical masks and clothing.
The checklist in Exhibit 3 can help companies make sure they are doing everything
necessary.
Exhibit 3
2020
The following is McKinsey’s perspective as

of March 2, 2020.
What we know about the outbreak
COVID 19 crossed an in ection point during the week of February 24, 2020. Cases outside
China exceeded those within China for the rst time, with 54 countries reporting cases as of
February 29. The outbreak is most concentrated in four transmission complexes—China
(centered in Hubei), East Asia (centered in South Korea and Japan), the Middle East
(centered in Iran), and Western Europe (centered in Italy). In total, the most-a ected
countries represent nearly 40 percent of the global economy. The daily movements of
people and the sheer number of personal connections within these transmission complexes
make it unlikely that COVID 19 can be contained. And while the situation in China has
stabilized with the implementation of extraordinary public-health measures, new cases are
also rising elsewhere, including Latin America (Brazil), the United States (California, Oregon,
and Washington), and Africa (Algeria and Nigeria). The US Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention has set clear expectations that the United States will experience community
transmission, and evidence is emerging that it may be happening already.
While the future is uncertain, it is likely that countries in the four mature transmission
complexes will see continued case growth; new complexes may emerge. This could
contribute to a perception of “leakage,” as the public comes to believe that the infections
aren’t contained. Consumer con dence, especially in those complexes, may erode, and
could be further weakened by restrictions on travel and limits on mass gatherings. China will
mostly likely recover rst, but the global impact will be felt much longer. We expect a
slowdown in global growth for 2020. In what follows, we review the two most likely
scenarios for economic impact and recovery and provide insights and best practices on how
business leaders can navigate this uncertain and fast-changing situation.
Economic impact
In our base-case scenario, continued spread within established complexes, as well as
community transmission in new complexes, drives a 0.3- to 0.7-percentage-point reduction
in global GDP growth for 2020. China, meanwhile, continues on its path to recovery,
achieving a near-complete economic restart by mid-Q2 (in spite of the current challenges of
slow permissions and lack of migrant-worker capacity). As other geographies experience

continued case growth, it is likely that movement restrictions will be imposed to attempt to
stop or slow the progression of the disease. This will almost certainly drive a sharp reduction
in demand, which in turn lowers economic growth through Q2 and early Q3. Demand
recovery will depend on a slowing of case growth, the most likely cause of which would be
“seasonality”—a reduction in transmissions similar to that seen with in uenza in the
northern hemisphere as the weather warms. Demand may also return if the disease’s fatality
ratio proves to be much lower than we are currently seeing.
Regions that have not yet seen rapid case growth (such as the Americas) are increasingly
likely to see more sustained community transmission (for example, expansion of the
emergency clusters in the western United States). Greater awareness of COVID 19, plus
additional time to prepare, may help these complexes manage case growth. However,
complexes with less robust health systems could see more general transmission. Lower
demand could slow growth of the global economy between 1.8 percent and 2.2 percent
instead of the 2.5 percent envisioned at the start of the year.
Unsurprisingly, sectors will be a ected to di erent degrees. Some sectors, like aviation,
tourism, and hospitality, will see lost demand (once customers choose not to eat at a
restaurant, those meals stay uneaten). This demand is largely irrecoverable. Other sectors
will see delayed demand. In consumer goods, for example, customers may put o
discretionary spending because of worry about the pandemic but will eventually purchase
such items later, once the fear subsides and con dence returns. These demand shocks—
extended for some time in regions that are unable to contain the virus—can mean
signi cantly lower annual growth. Some sectors, such as aviation, will be more deeply
a ected.
In the pessimistic scenario, case numbers grow rapidly in current complexes and new
centers of sustained community transmission erupt in North America, South America, and
Africa. Our pessimistic scenario assumes that the virus is not highly seasonal, and that
cases continue to grow throughout 2020. This scenario would see signi cant impact on
economic growth throughout 2020, resulting in a global recession.
In both the base-case and pessimistic scenarios, in addition to facing consumer-demand
headwinds, companies will need to navigate supply-chain challenges. Currently, we see that
companies with strong, centralized procurement teams and good relationships with
suppliers in China are feeling more con dent about their understanding of the risks these
suppliers face (including tier-2 and tier-3 suppliers). Others are still grappling with their
exposure in China and other transmission complexes. Given the relatively quick economic
restart in China, many companies are focused on temporary stabilization measures rather
than moving supply chains out of China. COVID 19 is also serving as an accelerant for
companies to make strategic, longer-term changes to supply chains—changes that had
often already been under consideration.
To better understand which scenario may prevail, planning teams can consider a set of
leading indicators like those in the exhibit ( see an updated version of the exhibit here ).
1. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
2. Andrew Joseph, “First Covid-19 reinfection documented in Hong Kong, researchers say,” STAT,
August 24, 2020, statnews.com.
3. Yuki Furuse et al., “Clusters of coronavirus disease in communities, Japan, January–April 2020,”
Emerging Infectious Diseases, September 2020, Volume 26, Number 9, pp. 2,176 9, cdc.gov.
4. Jordan Peccia et al., “SARS CoV 2 RNA concentrations in primary municipal sewage sludge as a
leading indicator of COVID 19 outbreak dynamics,” medRxiv, June 12, 2020, medrxiv.org.
5. AFP and Toi Sta , “Israeli tech rm successfully tracks down COVID 19 in Ashkelon’s sewers,” Times
of Israel, July 30, 2020, timeso srael.com; Misty Inglet, “Boise city o cials work to ush out
coronavirus data through continued wastewater testing,” KTVB TV, July 27, 2020, ktvb.com; University
of Queensland, “Australian researchers trace sewage for early warning COVID 19 spread,” Medical
Xpress, April 16, 2020, medicalxpress.com.
6. “Considerations for wearing masks: Help slow the spread of COVID 19,” Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention, August 7, 2020, cdc.gov.
7. “Masks save lives: Duke study con rms which ones work best,” Hartford HealthCare, August 11,
2020, hartfordhealthcare.org.
8. Derek K. Chu et al., “Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-
person transmission of SARS CoV 2 and COVID 19: A systematic review and meta-analysis,” Lancet,
June 2020, Volume 395, Number 10,242, pp. 1,973 87, thelancet.com.
9. Monoclonal antibodies and some drugs also have the potential to prevent COVID 19 cases. Similar
principles apply to them, but for simplicity, we refer only to vaccines in this section. China and Russia
agencies have also granted conditional use for COVID 19 vaccines in their countries.
10. Bede Broome, Omar Kattan, Pooja Kumar, and Shubham Singhal, “Reassessing Covid-19 needs:
How providers can reexamine their surge capacity, supply availability, workforce readiness, and
nancial resiliency,” NEJM Catalyst Innovations in Care Delivery, May 7, 2020, catalyst.nejm.org.
11. RECOVERY Collaborative Group, “Dexamethasone in hospitalized patients with Covid-19—
preliminary report,” New England Journal of Medicine, July 17, 2020, nejm.org.
12. John H. Beigel et al., “Remdesivir for the treatment of Covid-19—preliminary report,” New England
Journal of Medicine, May 22, 2020, nejm.org.
13. “Proning COVID 19 patients reduces need for ventilators,” Columbia University, July 2, 2020,
cuimc.columbia.edu.
14. Jill Terreri Ramos, “Fact-check: Did countries that reopened see a spike in coronavirus?,” Austin
American-Statesman, April 20, 2020, statesman.com; Suzanne Sataline, “Covid-19’s resurgence in
Hong Kong holds a lesson: Defeating it demands persistence,” Statnews, March 26, 2020,
statnews.com; Scott Neuman, “Emergency declared in Japanese prefecture hit by 2nd wave of
coronavirus infections,” NPR, April 13, 2020, npr.org; “Japan’s Abe extends state of emergency to May
31,” Al Jazeera, May 4, 2020, Aljazeera.com; Abigail Leonard, “This Japanese island lifted its coronavirus
lockdown too soon and became a warning to the world,” Time, April 24, 2020, time.com; “AP photos:
Beijing slowly reopens amid falling virus cases,” Associated Press, March 25, 2020, ap.com; Philip
Oltermann, “Germans urged to stay at home amid fears Covid-19 infection rate is rising again,”
Guardian, April 28, 2020; theguardian.com; Adam Rogers, “The Asian countries that beat Covid-19
have to do it again,” Wired, April 6, 2020; wired.com.
15. “China reports rise in Covid-19 cases, Beijing calls for vigilance,” France 24, May 11, 2020,
france24.com.
16. Lena H. Sun, “CDC director warns second wave of coronavirus is likely to be even more
devastating,” Washington Post, April 21, 2020, washingtonpost.com.
17. Hao-Yuan Cheng, Shu-Wan Jian, and Ding-Ping Liu, “Contact tracing assessment of COVID 19
transmission dynamics in Taiwan and risk at di erent exposure periods before and after symptom
onset,” JAMA Network, May 1, 2020, jamanetwork.com.
18. Reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction.
19. Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats.
20. For the full list, see “Emergency use authorization,” fda.gov.
21. Nicoletta Lanese, “When will a COVID 19 vaccine be ready?,” Live Science, April 2020,
livescience.com.
22. Steve Usdin, “End of the beginning for COVID 19 vaccines,” Biocentury, May 2, 2020,
biocentury.com.
23. David Beier and Max G. Bronstein, “Partnership o ers hope for COVID drug development,”
Biocentury, May 8, 2020, biocentury.com.
24. Lauren Martz, “Master protocols emerge as a critical clinical tool against COVID 19,” Biocentury,
April 11, 2020, biocentury.com.
25. “Rapid expert consultation on SARS CoV 2 survival in relation to temperature and humidity and
potential for seasonality for the COVID 19 pandemic,” National Academies Press, April 7, 2020,
nap.edu.
26. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction.
27. Antonio Regalado, “Blood tests show 14% of people are now immune to COVID 19 in one town in
Germany,” MIT Technology Review, April 9, 2020, technologyreview.com.
28. “COVID 19 therapies and vaccines: Clinical,” Biocentury, biocentury.com.
29. Assumes reproductive number greater than two. A number of recent publications assert this. See,
for example, Zhang, S., Diao, M., Yu, W., Pei, L., Lin, Z., and Chen, D., “Estimation of the reproductive
number of novel coronavirus (COVID 19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess
cruise ship: A data-driven analysis,” National Center for Biotechnology Information, February 20, 2020,
pubmed.gov.
30. Wu Zunyou and Jennifer M. McCoogan, “Characteristics of and important lessons from the
coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID 19) outbreak in China,” JAMA: Journal of the American Medical
Association, February 2020, jamanetwork.com.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)

Matt Craven is a partner in McKinsey’s Silicon Valley o ce; Linda Liu is a partner
in the New York o ce, where Matt Wilson is a senior partner; and Mihir Mysore
is a partner in the Houston o ce.
This article was edited by Mark Staples, an executive editor in the New York
o ce.
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3/3/2021 Coronavirus' business impact: Evolving perspective | McKinsey

COVID-19: Implications for business

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implications of 2020 on cybersecurity in Latin America .

COVID-19 and the great reset: Brieﬁng

note #37, January 6, 2021

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businesses, an incredible rise in productivity, permanent changes in consumer behavior,

anything like 2019.

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and the future of insurance in Africa .

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Vaccines are here. What can stakeholders

amounting to the largest simultaneous global public-health initiative ever undertaken .

Governments and healthcare professionals will need to collaborate on an incredible scale to

necessitate an evolving delivery model (Exhibit 1).

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through information campaigns using trusted, in uential sources.

e ects of future crises.

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After a tumultuous year for racial justice,