Black Bay Simulation - Strategy Sheet PGEXP - 2019-21

Student Name SACHIN DEO KUMAR

Roll No. X021-19
Round Strategy Logic 1

1
These strategy applied over all the rounds of Simulation.
2 Investment in Supercapacitors is a Breakthrough Project.
It is actually a DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION. So, for
3 innovation purpose maximum investment Energy Density
has been done. However, AGM was not overlooked
becasue revenue contributing 80% of total was coming
4 from AGM only.
Ultracapacitors
Decision was not changed as per market requirement or Invesments -
5 market scenario. Its not practical actually. We can't Breakthrough
change our startegy every year. Projects.
6 (Adjacent Strategic
I Kept investing in Innovative Products development, that Framework
startegy paid off well in the end ($1422100000 followed).
7 cummulative Profit and no negative growth in any year)

Kept the Head-wise Yearly budget and Total budgetory

8 provisons in mind and didn't exceeded that one. (R&D
Budget Provision attached in a separate sheet).
9

10
 Logic 2 Logic 3 R&D investment breakup

Other invesments- Not

of high priority, so not
invested in those. Those
were derivative projects.
Process
Breakups of investment
Improvements- Consistency in decicion given in the adjacent
Platform Projects making is very
sheet named as
(Adjacent Strategic important.
"Decision History"
Framework followed). Decisions can't/shouldn't
be changed overnight.

(Adjacent Strategic
Framework followed).
Sections FEATURES YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5 YEAR 6
AGM Forecasted Sales 24800000 24800000 22400000 18000000 12300000
Sales
SC Forecasted Sales 7400000 7400000 9600000 14000000 19200000
AGM Price $10.00 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00
Price
SC Price $20.00 $20.00 $20.00 $20.00 $20.00
Energy AGM Energy Density $5,000,000 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 $3,000,000
Density SC Energy Density $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $3,000,000 $4,000,000
Recharge AGM Recharge Cycles - - - - -
Cycles SC Recharge Cycles - - - - -
Self AGM Self Discharge - - - - -
Discharge SC Self Discharge - - - - -
Recharge AGM Recharge Time - - - - -
Time SC Recharge Time - - - - -
Process AGM Process Improvement $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $3,000,000 $3,000,000
Improvem
ent SC Process Improvement $3,000,000 $5,000,000 $5,000,000 $5,000,000 $5,000,000
YEAR 7 YEAR 8 YEAR 9 Row Sum Maximum Budget Provision
13800000 25000000 20000000
27000000 45000000 62000000
$10.00 $9.00 $9.50
$20.00 $19.50 $19.50
$3,000,000 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 $26,000,000
$5,000,000 $5,000,000 $5,000,000 $27,000,000
- - - $0
- - - $0
- - - $0
- - - $0
- - - $0
- - - $0
$3,000,000 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 $21,000,000
$6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $41,000,000
 Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Revenue from AGM $119,300,000 $158,000,000 $206,800,000 $247,900,000 $270,000,000
Revenue from Supercapacitor $119,500,000 $133,800,000.00 $149,600,000 $147,300,000 $178,200,000
Total Revenue $238,800,000 $291,800,000 $356,400,000 $395,200,000 $448,200,000
AGM Variable Costs $77,500,000 $102,100,000 $132,500,000 $156,900,000 $167,400,000
Supercapacitor Variable Costs $149,400,000 $164,200,000 $180,300,000 $174,000,000 $205,800,000
Gross Profit $11,900,000 $25,600,000 $43,600,000 $64,300,000 $75,000,000
AGM R&D Expense $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $7,000,000 $5,000,000 $5,000,000
Supercapacitor R&D Expense $0 $0 $4,000,000 $7,000,000 $7,000,000
Contribution Margin $5,900,000 $19,600,000 $37,600,000 $53,300,000 $63,000,000
From AGM $35,700,000 $50,000,000 $68,300,000 $84,000,000 $97,600,000
From Supercapacitor ($29,900,000) ($30,400,000) ($30,700,000) ($30,600,000) ($34,600,000)
Other Fixed Expenses $37,600,000 $37,600,000 $37,600,000 $37,600,000 $37,600,000
Operating Profit ($31,700,000) ($18,000,000) $0 $15,700,000 $25,400,000
Cumulative Profit $0 $0 $0 $15,700,000 $41,100,000
Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 $1,600,000,000
$224,200,000 $177,900,000 $116,800,000 $119,400,000 $155,700,000 $153,000,000
$192,700,000 $284,000,000 $396,100,000 $576,500,000 $816,000,000 $1,315,300,000 $1,400,000,000

$416,900,000 $462,000,000 $512,800,000.00 $695,900,000 $971,700,000 $1,468,300,000 $1,200,000,000

$134,200,000.00 $97,500,000 $51,500,000 $50,900,000 $73,500,000 $68,000,000
$215,200,000 $300,400,000 $373,700,000 $350,600,000 $435,900,000 $677,500,000 $1,000,000,000
$67,400,000 $64,100,000.00 $87,600,000 $294,400,000 $462,400,000 $722,700,000
$800,000,000
$6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 $6,000,000
$8,000,000 $9,000,000 $11,000,000 $11,000,000 $11,000,000 $11,000,000 $600,000,000
$55,400,000 $50,100,000 $72,600,000 $277,400,000 $445,400,000 $705,700,000
$85,000,000 $74,400,000 $59,200,000 $62,500,000 $76,200,000 $79,000,000 $400,000,000
($29,600,000) ($24,300,000) $13,400,000 $214,900,000 $369,200,000 $626,700,000
$200,000,000
$37,600,000 $37,600,000 $37,600,000 $37,600,000 $37,600,000 $37,600,000
$17,800,000 $12,500,000 $35,000,000 $239,800,000 $407,800,000 $668,100,000 $0
$58,900,000 $71,400,000 $106,400,000 $346,200,000 $754,000,000 $1,422,100,000 1
$1,600,000,000

$1,400,000,000

$1,200,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$800,000,000

$600,000,000

$400,000,000

$200,000,000

$0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Cummulative Profits over the years

 AGM Supercapac
Year Pro Forma Actual SaleSales VariaPro Forma Actual SaleSales Variance
0 11900000 11930000 0.20% 6000000 5980000 -0.40%
1 11900000 15800000 32.80% 6000000 6690000 11.50%
25.00%
2 15800000 20680000 30.90% 6700000 7480000 11.70%
3 24800000 24790000 0.00% 7400000 7370000 -0.50% SC 20.00%
4 24800000 27000000 8.90% 7400000 8910000 20.40%
5 22400000 22420000 0.10% 9600000 9630000 0.30% 15.00%

6 18000000 17790000 -1.10% 14000000 14200000 1.40% 10.00%

7 12300000 11680000 -5.10% 19200000 19800000 3.10%
8 13800000 11940000 -13.50% 27000000 28830000 6.80% 5.00%
9 25000000 17300000 -30.80% 45000000 41850000 -7.00%
0.00%
10 20000000 16110000 -19.50% 62000000 67450000 8.80% 1 2
-5.00%

-10.00%

40.00%

AGM 30.00%

20.00%

10.00%

0.00%
1 2
-10.00%

-20.00%

-30.00%

-40.00%
 Sales Variance
25.00%

20.00%

15.00%

10.00%

5.00%

0.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-5.00%

-10.00%

Sales Variance
40.00%

30.00%

20.00%

10.00%

0.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-10.00%

-20.00%

-30.00%

-40.00%
Features Annual Project Cost Project Length Total Cost
AGM: Energy Density $3000000–9000000 4–6 years $12000000–54000000
AGM: Recharge Cycles $1000000–6000000 5–8 years $5000000–48000000
AGM: Self Discharge $2000000–4000000 5–8 years $10000000–32000000
AGM: Recharge Time $1000000–5000000 4–7 years $4000000–35000000
AGM: Process Improvement $1000000–6000000 4–7 years $4000000–42000000
SC: Energy Density $4000000–10000000 5–7 years $20000000–70000000
SC: Recharge Cycles $2000000–9000000 5–8 years $10000000–72000000
SC: Self Discharge $2000000–8000000 5–8 years $10000000–64000000
SC: Recharge Time $1000000–6000000 5–7 years $5000000–42000000
SC: Process Improvement $3000000–7000000 5–7 years $15000000–49000000
Potential Performance Range
900–5,200 Watt Hours/Kg
530–1,050 Cycles
11–21 Months
105–210 Minutes
10–56% Reduction in Unit Costs
900–1,700 Watt Hours/Kg
8,750–17,490 Cycles
32–63 Months
9–17 Minutes
10–74% Reduction in Unit Costs