Year Annual Sales Change Percentage

Change
2002 3,892
Annual Sales of Citr
2003 4,203 311 8.0
8,000
2004 4,477 274 6.5
2005 4,810 333 7.4 7,000
2006 5,132 322 6.7 6,000
2007 5,407 275 5.4
5,000
2008 5,726 319 5.9
2009 6,023 297 5.2 4,000

2010 6,360 337 5.6 3,000

2011 6,641 281 4.4 2,000
2012 6,954 313 4.7
1,000

0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr Total
2002 842 939 1,236 875 3,892
2003 907 1,017 1,331 948 4,203
2004 953 1,103 1,406 1,015 4,477
2005 1,047 1,180 1,505 1,078 4,810
2006 1,124 1,267 1,576 1,165 5,132
2007 1,167 1,340 1,670 1,230 5,407
2008 1,255 1,403 1,766 1,302 5,726
2009 1,311 1,495 1,837 1,380 6,023
2010 1,390 1,565 1,940 1,465 6,360
2011 1,455 1,649 2,026 1,511 6,641
2012 1,536 1,714 2,103 1,601 6,954
 Constant Compound
Growth Rate
Annual Sales of Citronade (2002-2012)
E = Last year's amount
B = First year's amount
I = Growth Rate
n = Number of years

2 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
= 6954/3892 = 1,7867
Visual Time Series Projections
 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

Centered Adjusted
Moving Moving Ratio Actual/ Seasonal Data
Quarter Actual Average Average CMA Factors Deseasonalized
1 842 0.889 947.1
2 939 0.991 947.5
3 1,236 973.0 981.1 1.260 1.231 1003.9
4 875 989.3 999.0 0.876 0.889 984.5
5 907 1,008.8 1,020.6 0.889 0.889 1020.2
6 1,017 1,032.5 1,041.6 0.976 0.991 1026.3
7 1,331 1,050.8 1,056.5 1.260 1.231 1081.1
8 948 1,062.3 1,073.0 0.884 0.889 1066.6
9 953 1,083.8 1,093.1 0.872 0.889 1071.9
10 1,103 1,102.5 1,110.9 0.993 0.991 1113.0
11 1,406 1,119.3 1,131.0 1.243 1.231 1142.0
12 1,015 1,142.8 1,152.4 0.881 0.889 1142.0
13 1,047 1,162.0 1,174.4 0.892 0.889 1177.7
14 1,180 1,186.8 1,194.6 0.988 0.991 1190.7
15 1,505 1,202.5 1,212.1 1.242 1.231 1222.4
16 1,078 1,221.8 1,232.6 0.875 0.889 1212.9
17 1,124 1,243.5 1,252.4 0.897 0.889 1264.3
18 1,267 1,261.3 1,272.1 0.996 0.991 1278.5
19 1,576 1,283.0 1,288.4 1.223 1.231 1280.0
20 1,165 1,293.8 1,302.9 0.894 0.889 1310.8
21 1,167 1,312.0 1,323.8 0.882 0.889 1312.7
22 1,340 1,335.5 1,343.6 0.997 0.991 1352.2
23 1,670 1,351.8 1,362.8 1.225 1.231 1356.4
24 1,230 1,373.8 1,381.6 0.890 0.889 1383.9
25 1,255 1,389.5 1,401.5 0.895 0.889 1411.6
26 1,403 1,413.5 1,422.5 0.986 0.991 1415.8
27 1,766 1,431.5 1,438.5 1.228 1.231 1434.4
28 1,302 1,445.5 1,457.0 0.894 0.889 1464.9
29 1,311 1,468.5 1,477.4 0.887 0.889 1474.6
30 1,495 1,486.3 1,496.0 0.999 0.991 1508.6
31 1,837 1,505.8 1,515.6 1.212 1.231 1492.0
32 1,380 1,525.5 1,534.3 0.899 0.889 1552.7
33 1,390 1,543.0 1,555.9 0.893 0.889 1563.5
34 1,565 1,568.8 1,579.4 0.991 0.991 1579.2
35 1,940 1,590.0 1,598.1 1.214 1.231 1575.7
36 1,465 1,606.3 1,616.8 0.906 0.889 1648.3
37 1,455 1,627.3 1,638.0 0.888 0.889 1636.6
38 1,649 1,648.8 1,654.5 0.997 0.991 1664.0
39 2,026 1,660.3 1,670.4 1.213 1.231 1645.5
40 1,511 1,680.5 1,688.6 0.895 0.889 1700.1
41 1,536 1,696.8 1,706.4 0.900 0.889 1727.7
42 1,714 1,716.0 1,727.3 0.992 0.991 1729.6
43 2,103 1,738.5 1.231 1708.1
44 1,601 0.889 1801.4
 (8) (9) (10)

Cycle and
Trend Irregular (%) Cycle
940.2 100.73
959.5 98.75 100.68
978.8 102.56 99.99
998.1 98.64 100.49
1017.4 100.28 99.30 Citronade Quarterly Sales De
1036.7 98.99 100.55
1056.0 102.37 100.19 1900.0
1075.3 99.20 99.83
1094.6 97.93 99.02
1113.9 99.93 99.55 f(x) = 19.296090326203 x + 920.908895841824
1700.0
1133.2 100.78 99.93
1152.5 99.09 100.13
1171.8 100.51 99.86
1500.0
1191.1 99.97 100.49
1210.4 100.99 99.87
1229.6 98.64 100.29
1300.0
1248.9 101.23 100.23
1268.2 100.81 100.49
1287.5 99.42 100.18
1100.0
1306.8 100.30 99.57
1326.1 98.98 99.93
1345.4 100.50 99.63
900.0
1364.7 99.39 99.96
1384.0 99.99 99.99
1403.3 100.59 100.04
700.0
1422.6 99.52 99.86 0 5 10 15 20
1441.9 99.48 99.75
1461.2 100.26 99.78
1480.5 99.60 100.15
1499.8 100.59 99.47
Citrona
1519.1 98.22 99.91
1538.4 100.93 99.84 2200.0
1557.7 100.37 100.48
2100.0
1577.0 100.14 99.74
1596.3 98.71 100.29
2000.0
1615.6 102.03 100.28
1634.9 100.11 100.91 1900.0
1654.2 100.60 99.68
1800.0

1700.0

1600.0
 2000.0

1900.0

1800.0
1673.5 98.33 99.79
1692.8 100.43 99.89 1700.0
1712.0 100.92 100.42
1731.3 99.90 99.46 1600.0
1750.6 97.57 99.75
1500.0
1769.9 101.78 99.67
1400.0

1300.0

1200.0

1100.0

1000.0

900.0

800.0

700.0
0 5 10 15 2
 y = 19,296x + 920,91

itronade Quarterly Sales Deseasonalized (2002-2012)

+ 920.908895841824

10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Citronade Sales Deseasonalized

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Table 5.6 Averaging of Seasonal Factors
Second Third Fourth
Year First Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Total
2002 1.260 0.876
2003 0.889 0.976 1.260 0.884
2004 0.872 0.993 1.243 0.881
2005 0.892 0.988 1.242 0.875
2006 0.897 0.996 1.223 0.894
2007 0.882 0.997 1.225 0.890
2008 0.895 0.986 1.228 0.894
2009 0.887 0.999 1.212 0.899
2010 0.893 0.991 1.214 0.906
2011 0.888 0.997 1.213 0.895
2012 0.900 0.992

Average 0.890 0.992 1.232 0.889 4.002

Adjusted Average 0.889 0.991 1.231 0.889 4.000

1.229 0.891
Table 5.6 Averaging of Seasonal Factors
Second Third
Year First Quarter Quarter Quarter
2002 1.260
2003 0.889 0.976 1.260
2004 0.872 0.993 1.243
2005 0.892 0.988 1.242
2006 0.897 0.996 1.223
2007 0.882 0.997 1.225
2008 0.895 0.986 1.228
2009 0.887 0.999 1.212
2010 0.893 0.991 1.214
2011 0.888 0.997 1.213
2012 0.900 0.992

Average 3 period 0.894 0.993 1.213

Adjusted Average 3 period 0.894 0.993 1.213
Fourth
Quarter Total
0.876
0.884
0.881
0.875
0.894
0.890
0.894
0.899
0.906
0.895

0.900 4.000
0.900 4.000
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

1 842 0.889 947.1

2 939 0.991 947.5
3 1,236 973.0 981.1 1.260 1.231 1003.9
4 875 989.3 999.0 0.876 0.889 984.5
5 907 1,008.8 1,020.6 0.889 0.889 1020.2
6 1,017 1,032.5 1,041.6 0.976 0.991 1026.3
7 1,331 1,050.8 1,056.5 1.260 1.231 1081.1
8 948 1,062.3 1,073.0 0.884 0.889 1066.6
9 953 1,083.8 1,093.1 0.872 0.889 1071.9
10 1,103 1,102.5 1,110.9 0.993 0.991 1113.0
11 1,406 1,119.3 1,131.0 1.243 1.231 1142.0
12 1,015 1,142.8 1,152.4 0.881 0.889 1142.0
13 1,047 1,162.0 1,174.4 0.892 0.889 1177.7
14 1,180 1,186.8 1,194.6 0.988 0.991 1190.7
15 1,505 1,202.5 1,212.1 1.242 1.231 1222.4
16 1,078 1,221.8 1,232.6 0.875 0.889 1212.9
17 1,124 1,243.5 1,252.4 0.897 0.889 1264.3
18 1,267 1,261.3 1,272.1 0.996 0.991 1278.5
19 1,576 1,283.0 1,288.4 1.223 1.231 1280.0
20 1,165 1,293.8 1,302.9 0.894 0.889 1310.8
21 1,167 1,312.0 1,323.8 0.882 0.889 1312.7
22 1,340 1,335.5 1,343.6 0.997 0.991 1352.2
23 1,670 1,351.8 1,362.8 1.225 1.231 1356.4
24 1,230 1,373.8 1,381.6 0.890 0.889 1383.9
25 1,255 1,389.5 1,401.5 0.895 0.889 1411.6
26 1,403 1,413.5 1,422.5 0.986 0.991 1415.8
27 1,766 1,431.5 1,438.5 1.228 1.231 1434.4
28 1,302 1,445.5 1,457.0 0.894 0.889 1464.9
29 1,311 1,468.5 1,477.4 0.887 0.889 1474.6
30 1,495 1,486.3 1,496.0 0.999 0.991 1508.6
31 1,837 1,505.8 1,515.6 1.212 1.231 1492.0
32 1,380 1,525.5 1,534.3 0.899 0.889 1552.7
33 1,390 1,543.0 1,555.9 0.893 0.889 1563.5
34 1,565 1,568.8 1,579.4 0.991 0.991 1579.2
35 1,940 1,590.0 1,598.1 1.214 1.231 1575.7
36 1,465 1,606.3 1,616.8 0.906 0.889 1648.3
37 1,455 1,627.3 1,638.0 0.888 0.889 1636.6
38 1,649 1,648.8 1,654.5 0.997 0.991 1664.0
39 2,026 1,660.3 1,670.4 1.213 1.231 1645.5
40 1,511 1,680.5 1,688.6 0.895 0.889 1700.1
41 1,536 1,696.8 1,706.4 0.900 0.889 1727.7
42 1,714 1,716.0 1,727.3 0.992 0.991 1729.6
43 2,103 1,738.5 1,745.3 1.205 1.231 1708.1
44 1,601 1,752.2 1,761.9 0.909 0.889 1801.4
45 1,590.7 1,771.7 1,790.2 0.889
46 1,792.2 1,808.6 1,813.7 0.988
47 2,250.4 1,818.8
48 1,641.7
 (8) (9) (10)

940.2 100.73
959.5 98.75 100.68
978.8 102.56 99.99
998.1 98.64 100.49
1017.4 100.28 99.30
1036.7 98.99 100.55
1056.0 102.37 100.19
1075.3 99.20 99.83
1094.6 97.93 99.02
1113.9 99.93 99.55 Citronade Qua
1133.2 100.78 99.93
1152.5 99.09 100.13
1900.0
1171.8 100.51 99.86
1191.1 99.97 100.49
1210.4 100.99 99.87 f(x) = 19.296090326203 x + 920.908895
1700.0
1229.6 98.64 100.29
1248.9 101.23 100.23
1268.2 100.81 100.49 1500.0
1287.5 99.42 100.18
1306.8 100.30 99.57
1326.1 98.98 99.93 1300.0
1345.4 100.50 99.63
1364.7 99.39 99.96
1384.0 99.99 99.99
1100.0
1403.3 100.59 100.04
1422.6 99.52 99.86
1441.9 99.48 99.75 900.0
1461.2 100.26 99.78
1480.5 99.60 100.15
1499.8 100.59 99.47
700.0
1519.1 98.22 99.91 0 5 10

1538.4 100.93 99.84

1557.7 100.37 100.48
1577.0 100.14 99.74
1596.3 98.71 100.29
1615.6 102.03 100.28 Citronade Sales Dese
1634.9 100.11 100.91 2200.0
1654.2 100.60 99.68
1673.5 98.33 99.79 2100.0
1692.8 100.43 99.89
2000.0

1900.0

1800.0
 2200.0

2100.0

2000.0
1712.0 100.92 100.42
1731.3 99.90 99.46 1900.0
1750.6 97.57 99.75
1769.9 101.78 99.67 1800.0
1789.2
1700.0
1808.5
1827.8 1600.0
1847.1
1500.0

1400.0

1300.0

1200.0

1100.0

1000.0

900.0

800.0

700.0
0 5 10 15 20 25
 y = 19,296x + 920,91

Citronade Quarterly Sales Deseasonalized (2002-2012)

f(x) = 19.296090326203 x + 920.908895841824

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Citronade Sales Deseasonalized

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50