0957–5820/06/$30.00+0.

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# 2006 Institution of Chemical Engineers
www.icheme.org/psep Trans IChemE, Part B, May 2006
doi: 10.1205/psep.05113 Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 84(B3): 208– 221

CAN WE PREDICT OCCUPATIONAL

ACCIDENT FREQUENCY?
D. ATTWOOD1, F. KHAN2
and B. VEITCH2
1
Lloyd’s Register EMEA, Aberdeen, UK
2
Faculty of Engineering & Applied Science, Memorial University, St John’s, NL, Canada

A
model has been developed to predict the frequency and associated costs of occu-
pational accidents in the offshore oil and gas industry. Model inputs include (1)
direct factors such as quality of personal protective equipment, (2) corporate factors
such as training programme effectiveness, and (3) external factors such as royalty regime.
Model development was based on a review of related literature, expert opinion, and reliability
analysis concepts. The model accounts for the differing relative importance of influencing
factors, using quantitative data derived from a survey of safety experts. The influences of
external elements on corporate actions and of corporate actions on the direct accident process
are also included in a quantitative manner, again benefiting from the expert opinion survey.
An introduction to the problem is provided, followed by a brief summary of the literature
reviewed, a description of the model and example runs demonstrating the model’s versatility
and capability.
Taking a broader perspective, the work offers an example of quantifying something which,
at first, seems unquantifiable. Tools such as this offer valuable aids to management and
provide an improvement on qualitative opinion, hunches and similar.

Keywords: occupational accidents; offshore; oil and gas; quantitative prediction; reliability
approach.

INTRODUCTION accidents, i.e., ‘accidents will happen’. An unfortunate

reaction to this position would be a relaxation of efforts
Occupational accidents constitute an area of significant and to reduce accident frequency. Fortunately, this view is not
continuing risk for the oil and gas industry. The statistical widespread within the oil and gas community or industry
data show (Figure 1) that fatalities are more likely to in general. Following a review (International Labour
be caused by occupational accidents (e.g., falls, caught Organisation, 2003) of global industrial accidents, the
between, struck by) than by more catastrophic events such ILO makes the following comments: ‘Fatalities are not
as explosions or air transport incidents. By some measures, fated; accidents don’t just happen; illness is not random;
in 2004, oil and gas workers were six times more likely to they are caused.’ Most oil and gas operators’ policies
die from a fall than from an explosion/burn (International mirror these comments. Particularly in projects being
Association of Oil & Gas Producers, 2005). executed in mature markets, safety culture, systems, and
The situation is consistent with that observed in the general equipment are well developed and effective, resulting in a
workplace, where it has been reported (UK HSE, 1996) that relatively low likelihood of accident. However, as reserves
over a third of all major injuries reported each year result are depleted in traditional locations and companies turn to
from a slip or trip, this being the single most common cause frontier regions (e.g., Africa and China), the implemen-
of injuries at work. Whilst occupational safety is regulated tation of an effective safety programme becomes more
under various national legislative schemes, analysis of these difficult.
types of accidents is not nearly so rigorous as for major Attempts to address the problem have been ongoing for
accident hazards. This is likely due to the relatively more at least a quarter of a century. Despite all the excellent
ruinous potential consequences of major accidents. efforts, however, the problem remains. Current occu-
A potentially contributing factor to the problem is the pational accident research is mostly qualitative in nature,
presence of an attitude adopting a certain inevitability to compared to the more quantitative efforts directed toward
major hazards. A specific gap in the body of research is


Correspondence to: Professor F. Khan, Faculty of Engineering and zAp-
assigning sufficient quantification to the analysis of occu-
plied Science, Memorial University, St John’s, NL, Canada A1B 3X5. pational accidents, in terms of data gathering, model
E-mail: [email protected] development, and analysis (Attwood et al., 2005a).

208
 CAN WE PREDICT OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENT FREQUENCY? 209

explosions and toxic releases. The present work’s specific

application to occupational accidents and inclusion of
external factors differentiates it from these efforts.
Human performance and personal reaction to dangerous
situations provide the basis for some models (UK HSE,
2002a, 2003; Gordon et al., 2001; Strutt et al., 1998;
Mosleh and Chang, 2004). Accident occurrence is
considered to be a question of how well individuals react
with their environment to prevent, mitigate the results
of, or recover from, a potential accident. These models
offer insight into the human element of the problem, but
the present work considers human performance as just
one of a series of factors in a holistic analysis.
Other literature describes models which adopt a
statistical approach (Kjellen, 1995; Luo, 1998; Thompson
et al., 1998; Tomas et al., 1999; Guastello, 1989; Brown
et al., 2000; Cheyne et al., 1999; Pate-Cornell and
Figure 1. Fatality causes, 1999– 2003 (excludes unknown) (International Murphy, 1996), suggesting methods for quantifying
Association of Oil & Gas Producers, 2005). relationships between influencing elements. The present
work expands on these concepts, providing a holistic and
predictive approach specifically tailored to offshore oil
Whilst occupational accidents occur through a direct and gas occupational accidents.
(unsatisfactory) interaction between worker and workplace, Existing accident models contribute expertise to the off-
it is the basic premise of the presently proposed model that shore occupational accident problem from a wide range of
workers’ behaviours are influenced by corporate culture, perspectives. However, while some deal specifically with
and their workplace environment and procedures are occupational accidents, some take a holistic approach to
controlled corporately. Furthermore, corporate decisions more catastrophic types of offshore accidents, and others
and actions are, in turn, influenced by external elements. consider non-traditional elements (i.e., societal, human)
of the accident process, none adopt the holistic, quantitative
approach to offshore occupational accidents proposed by
LITERATURE REVIEW this research.
A comprehensive discussion of the literature is presented
in Attwood et al. (2005a). A summary is presented here, Occupational Accident Data Sources
highlighting only information considered essential to this Since this work includes a significant quantitative
discussion. element, an evaluation of the related available statistical
data was undertaken. The available sources may be
grouped as follows:
Review of Accident Models
. internet sources (e.g., United Kingdom Health & Safety
Early accident models were developed in reaction to the
Executive (HSE) website, Norwegian Petroleum Direc-
specific needs they tried to address. Medicine and the
torate (NPD) website);
nuclear industry have historically demanded overwhelming
. company annual reports (e.g., Shell, ConocoPhillips,
attention to accident causation, prevention, and mitigation
Exxonmobil);
(Gordon, 1949; Le Bot, 2004). This is probably due to
. open literature (International Association of Oil & Gas
the high emotional attachment associated with problems
Producers, 2004, UK HSE, 2000, 2001, 2002b.
in these industries—medicine due to the distress caused
by loved ones’ illnesses, and the nuclear industry due to The internet sources, developed by regulatory bodies in
the catastrophic consequences of nuclear accidents. It is established offshore regions such as the UK North Sea
no surprise therefore, that many of the earliest accident and Norway, provide, amongst other things, unprocessed
models, which provided valuable basic philosophical direc- accident statistics. These data have been used to compare
tion to subsequent efforts, originated in these industries. accident rates between regions and also between groups
One group of models studied (e.g., UK HSE, 2001, 2002b; (i.e., contractors versus operators) within regions.
Balkey and Phillips, 1993) concentrates on direct causes, for Company annual reports provide a source of comparison
example quality of personal protective equipment, number of between major operators. The data are limited, including a
shifts worked and time of injury, effect of prescriptive safety few annual indicators only for each operator, for example
regulations, and similar. These models help to produce lost time incident rate, total recordable incident rate, and
improvements in specific areas, but they do not adopt a sometimes occupational illness frequency.
comprehensive view of the occupational accident problem. The open literature offers various analyses of offshore
Other models take a more holistic view of accidents occupational accident data, for example investigating the
(Geyer and Bellamy, 1991; McCauley-Bell and Badiru, relative frequencies of accidents when performing certain
1996a, b; Trontin and Bejean, 2004; Embrey, 1992; Hopkins, activities, and comparisons of accident rates in various reg-
2000), including corporate factors in the analysis. However, ions. Company comparisons are available, but only on an
these models, in general, study catastrophic accidents such as anonymous basis.

Trans IChemE, Part B, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2006, 84(B3): 208–221
210 ATTWOOD et al.

Factors Affecting Occupational Accidents Table 1. Frequency of mention of factors affecting safety results.

Model development necessarily includes the identifi- Factors affecting occupational accidents (frequency of mention in brackets)
cation of constituent factors and the determination of
their interrelationships. Literature offering suggestions for External Corporate Direct
choice of factors and possible inter-relationships has been Political Economic pressure (3) Personnel experience (3)
reviewed. Some examples are presented here. influence (2) Corporate culture (11) Staff knowledge/
BOMEL proposes a two-level series of factors Regulatory Procedure/permit learning (5)
influence (1) syst. (8) Safety design/layout (10)
considered to affect occupational accidents in the UK off- Market Corporate supervision/ Staff errors (2)
shore oil and gas industry (see UK HSE, 2002b for details). influence (1) audit programme (3) Safety behaviour (6)
Whilst the factors suggested by BOMEL are similar to Societal Safety management (2) Fatigue (2)
those proposed by the present work, their interdependency influence (2) Labour relations (2) Housekeeping (1)
and the quantification method presently proposed is entirely Accident Physical fitness (1)
management (3) Weather (2)
different. Training (10) Quality of PPE (3)
Similar to BOMEL, Kjellen and Hovden (1993) view the Human resources (4) Attentiveness (2)
accident process as having two levels—the accident Motivation (2)
sequence, and the underlying determining factors. The Compliance (1)
Visual environment (1)
two approaches differ in the specific choice of factors and Personnel attitude (4)
the degree to which non-direct factors are considered (see
Kjellen and Hovden, 1993; UK HSE, 2002b for specifics).
Wilson and McCutcheon (2003) recognize the importance
of corporate factors (e.g., inadequate programmes and failure a degree of interpretation. However, the factors proposed
to comply with standards) in the industrial accident investi- most frequently by others have been included in the present
gation process. The incident causation model used for their model, which provides confirmation and validation to the
analysis was developed by Bird and Germain (1992). choices. The relative scarcity of factors outside the organ-
Hopkins (2000) applies the ‘AcciMap’ approach devel- ization proposed by previous researchers confirms the
oped by Rasmussen (1997) to the Longford (Australia) novelty of the present approach, which includes external
gas plant explosion. Hopkins recognized the role of the societal and economic forces.
following external elements in the accident:
MODEL DESCRIPTION
. market forces—specifically pressure to reduce costs;
. market ideology (the notion that ‘the market is the best Model Structure
way to satisfy human wants and needs, and that govern- Occupational accidents result from an unsatisfactory
ments should play as small a role as possible in this interaction between workers and their environment.
process’); Direct factors affecting the process include staff behaviour
. inadequate regulatory systems; and capabilities, weather conditions, safety related design
. government shortcomings—for example failure to of the workplace, and quality of protective equipment.
provide alternative domestic gas supplies. Many of these factors are influenced by decisions taken
Whilst the roles of the external elements were noted by the at the corporate level. For example, worker attitudes and
author, the government appointed Royal Commission of resulting behaviours are influenced by corporate ‘safety
enquiry was criticized for failing to do so. culture’. Additionally, the organization determines the
Other sets of factors, proposed by various researchers, quality of safety training, procedures and equipment.
have been reviewed (Pate Cornell and Murphy, 1996; UK Other researchers (e.g., Cheyne et al., 1999; Thompson
HSE, 2003; Balkey and Phillips, 1993; McCauley-Bell et al., 1998; Tomas et al., 1999) have considered the
and Badiru, 1996a, b; Embrey, 1992; Hurst, 1998; effect of corporate actions on the occupational accident
Thompson et al., 1998; Tomas et al., 1999; Brown et al., process. Hopkins (2000) included external elements in the
2000; Cheyne et al., 1999). Almost all of the proposed fac- study of a gas plant explosion. Similar to Hopkins’
tors and groupings include a series of direct factors, and approach, the present model includes an external level,
some also include a set of corporate factors affecting the but as applied to the analysis of occupational accidents,
workers’ environment. There is less emphasis on external instead of major events. Region-based cultural and finan-
elements such as price of oil and regulatory regime, and cial pressures are considered to influence corporate actions
the application of an external extension to the occupational and decisions which, in turn, directly affect occupational
accident problem constitutes one of the primary contri- accident frequency.
butions made by the present work. The following sections describe the components of the
It was felt worthwhile to introduce a degree of rigour to different levels, or layers. These components were chosen
the review of factors suggested by others. Therefore, the based on (1) discussions with offshore oil industry
groupings proposed in the literature were reviewed colleagues, (2) personal experience in the industry, and
and the number of occurrences of specific factors in the (3) the previously described literature review. The basic
direct, corporate, and external categories counted. The schematic of the model is shown in Figure 2.
result of this exercise is shown in Table 1, with the numbers
in brackets indicating the total number of times the factors The direct layer
were proposed. Because researchers often use slightly The five components considered to directly affect
different terms to describe the factors, the process required accident frequency are (1) worker behaviour, (2) worker

Trans IChemE, Part B, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2006, 84(B3): 208–221
 CAN WE PREDICT OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENT FREQUENCY? 211

the system probably, on balance, encourages behaviour

beneficial to both workers and the organization.
. Capabilities can be divided into mental and physical.
Mental capabilities are of two categories, knowledge
based, and intelligence based (Hurst, 1998). The ‘know-
ledge’ component comprises the safety related information
retained by the worker following training sessions. The
‘intelligence’ component allows the worker to cope
with safety issues not specifically covered by training
and procedures. The physical capabilities associated
with avoiding occupational accidents are considered to
be good coordination, a reasonable degree of fitness,
and lack of fatigue.
. Weather conditions at the time the work is performed can
affect the likelihood of accidents. For example, rain or
snow can make surfaces slippery, and extreme tempera-
tures can affect concentration.
. Efforts to optimize safety related design can reduce acci-
Figure 2. Basic schematic of model.
dent frequency. Examples of measures taken are the use
of non-slip walkways and clearly visible warning signs.
. Standard personal protective equipment (PPE), including
capability, (3) weather, (4) safety design, and (5) personal for example safety boots, helmets, glasses and gloves, can
protective equipment. be seen on just about all offshore installations.

. Behaviours are personal choices which are influenced by The architecture of the direct layer is shown in the right-
one’s attitude and motivation. Collective staff attitude hand columns of Figure 3.
can sometimes be altered but is best affected at the
hiring stage. Motivation to operate in a safe manner The corporate support layer
must be clearly provided by management and super- The second fundamental layer (see middle column of
visors. Positive reinforcement is the more frequent Figure 3) is the safety related support provided by the com-
option and usually takes the form of safety awards, finan- pany, comprised of (1) corporate safety culture, (2) safety
cial or otherwise. Penalties for poor safety behaviour are training, and (3) safety procedures.
less common, but may become more so in reaction to Almost all offshore operators today expend considerable
increasing corporate penalties for inferior safety per- effort in developing a strong, positive safety culture, pro-
formance. Some question the effectiveness of the safety claiming ‘commitment to safety’ as their foremost concern.
award/penalty system, citing the encouragement of Corporate documents issue promises such as ‘safety
inappropriate non-reporting of accidents. Nevertheless, takes precedence over production’, ‘safety is job one’,

Figure 3. Specific elements of model.

Trans IChemE, Part B, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2006, 84(B3): 208–221
212 ATTWOOD et al.

and similar. Safety culture is often developed by enforcing Usually the initial reaction is to make life very attractive
day-to-day safety rules which may seem to border on the for the companies, and a lucrative (for the company) roy-
trivial, for example always placing plastic covers on alty scheme is discussed and proposed. Gradually, how-
coffee cups, backing into car parking spaces, holding hand- ever, the region’s historical economic situation is brought
rails in offices, and so on. The motivation behind such rules to bear on the process. If long term economics have been
is the belief that if staff are continuously aware of such satisfactory and environmental concerns are considered
detail, they will not need to ‘shift’ into a ‘careful’ mode important (usually due to valuable tourism or fishing indus-
when faced with more dangerous situations. tries), pressure is placed on government to enforce a strict
In ‘mature’ oil and gas industry areas, the safety training royalty regime, which erodes project profitability and pro-
programmes and procedures offered by most companies are duces a negative ‘knock-on’ effect on safety results. On
well developed and effective. In some frontier regions, the other hand, in areas where the population has suffered
however, further efforts are required to raise the from poor long-term economics, it is more likely that the
programmes’ level of quality to an acceptable standard. public will encourage government to ensure that oil and
gas operators are ‘made to feel welcome’ in every way,
including financially. This will have a positive effect on
The external layer disposable cash and, indirectly, safety results.
The view that safety results can be significantly improved
solely by enhancements at the direct level is not supported
by this or previous research (Hopkins, 2000; Pate-Cornell Method of Analysis
and Murphy, 1996; Cheyne et al., 1999; Thompson et al.,
Many methods are available to study probabilistic events
1998; Tomas et al., 1999). Better safety boots, a more
such as offshore accidents, including fault tree analyses and
stringent tank entry procedure, and similar initiatives may
event tree analyses. Based on a review of existing research,
prevent an accident or two, but fundamental change requires
it was decided that the accident process could be best mod-
improvement at least at the corporate level, which is, in
elled by a modified reliability network. The notion to use
turn, often driven by external factors such as the relative
this approach originated with the recognition of similarities
regional value placed on human life and the financial press-
between a physical engineering system and a corporate
ures exerted on the organization.
safety programme, as described below.
Oil companies need to operate in regions where hydro-
carbon reserves are discovered. Societal expectations differ . Similar to an engineering system, safety programme
throughout the world (and occasionally even within success depends on the reliability of individual
countries), and the associated forces affect an organization’s components.
safety results. For example, some regions place a higher . Individual components will perform at different levels of
value on a human life than others. In regions where reliability.
the value is high, operators will receive, usually through . System improvements are usually enacted by making
the regulatory process, relatively higher pressure to enact a improvements in individual components.
‘strict’ safety programme. This pressure will take many . The overall system can be realistically subdivided into
forms—including requirements for high expenditure on sub-systems.
safety equipment through demanding prescriptive regu- . Some engineering system element subsets are configured
lations, stiff corporate penalties for injuries, and require- in ‘series’ setups having the properties that (1) the
ments for expensive pre-project public safety performance reliability of the subset is the product of component
forums. The opposite effect will be seen in regions with a reliabilities and (2) the subset reliability is always less
comparatively lower societal value placed on life. than that of the least reliable component (see Figure 4).
Financial pressures on oil companies originate from This corresponds to the concept that for some subsets
several sources, including price of oil, corporate share- of the safety system, all elements must be operating
holder pressure, and regionally based royalty regime (see relatively efficiently to produce a satisfactory result.
Figure 3 for the location of these items in the model . Other engineering system elements are configured
architecture). in ‘parallel’ setups having the properties that (1) the
An inverse correlation has been discovered between
price of oil and accident frequency. This may be due to
an effect which is more easily seen from a negative pers-
pective—when money is scarce, i.e., when the price of
oil is low, there is an increased pressure to ‘cut corners’
everywhere, and this includes, unfortunately, the quality
of the safety programmes enacted by operators.
Shareholder pressure is the degree to which a company is
encouraged by its owners to improve performance. Unduly
high pressure to retain extra money within corporate coffers
rather than spending it on (what some shareholders per-
ceive to be) an unnecessary expense lacking an obvious
payback will negatively affect safety results.
The royalty regime is heavily region-specific. It is interes-
ting to observe government and public behaviour following
the euphoria of an area’s first hydrocarbon discovery. Figure 4. Series versus parallel subsets.

Trans IChemE, Part B, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2006, 84(B3): 208–221
 CAN WE PREDICT OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENT FREQUENCY? 213

reliability of the subset is calculated by subtracting the reliability to drop from 0.2 to approximately 0.06, a fall
product of component probabilities of failure from of 70%. A failure of the parallel system requires a much
unity, and (2) the reliability of the subset is always greater percentage component reliability drop than is the
greater than that of the most reliable component (see case for the series system. This example shows how the
Figure 4). This corresponds to the concept that for effect of ‘compensation’ by elements in the safety system
some subsets of the safety system, poor performance in is modelled by the parallel arrangement of components in
some elements can be ‘compensated for’ by superior the reliability network.
performance by others within the subset.
Arrangement of elements
A mathematical example can be used to illustrate the
The arrangement of elements in the model is shown in
final two points above, with reference to the equations in
Figure 5. A few points to note are as follows:
Figure 4. Consider two subsets of elements, each contain-
ing two elements, one connected in series, the other in . The direct layer elements (behaviour, capability, weather,
parallel. Assume a situation where the system reliabilities safety design, PPE and their subcomponents) are con-
are approximately equal, produced (for example) when nected in a reliability network. The reliability of the
the component reliabilities of the series subset are 0.6 overall safety system is calculated from these direct
and 0.7, giving a system reliability of (0.6  0.7 ¼ 0.42), elements in much the same way as would be done for
and the component reliabilities of the parallel subset are a physical network (Billinton and Allan, 1983). The
0.2 and 0.3, producing a system reliability of (1 – only departure from formal system reliability calcul-
(1 2 0.2)  (1 2 0.3) ¼ 0.44). Suppose system failure is ation methodology is the necessary inclusion of rela-
proposed to occur when overall reliability falls below tive strength factors, which is discussed in the next
approximately 0.35. In the series arrangement, this would subsection.
occur if the first component reliability were to fall below . The external elements influence corporate factors, and
0.5, a drop of only 17% from the original value of 0.6. these in turn influence the direct components, as shown
However, in the parallel arrangement, a fall below system in Figure 5. The mathematics of this process is described
reliability of 0.35 would require the first component in the next subsection.

Figure 5. Internal arrangement of the elements in the model.

Trans IChemE, Part B, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2006, 84(B3): 208–221
214 ATTWOOD et al.

. The main direct elements (behaviour, capability, within each group was extracted in a consistent manner
weather, safety design and PPE), are connected in a (Attwood et al., 2005b). The resulting ‘relative importance’
series configuration, reflecting the belief that all must values (Figure 6) were then used within the mathematical
work well in an efficient safety programme. model, utilizing a process of ‘strengthening’ or ‘weakening’
. Some element subsets, for example (1) knowledge and individual components in the reliability network, analogous
intelligence and (2) coordination, fitness and lack of fati- to adding redundant units to a physical system.
gue, are connected in parallel arrangements. This reflects Note that, following the normalisation process, the
the belief that a degree of compensation is available strengths of components within the following subgroups
in the process. Examples of this would be when good sum to unity.
intelligence facilitated accident avoidance for a worker
having a less than ideal knowledge of safety procedures, . primary direct level ¼ behaviour, capability, weather,
or when a high level of coordination and fitness allowed safety design, PPE
a fatigued worker to successfully avoid an accident. Note . behavioural subgroup ¼ attitude, motivation
the analogy in this analysis to a redundant, parallel – . capability subgroup ¼ mental, physical
connected, pump providing increased system reliability . mental capability subgroup ¼ knowledge, intelligence
in a multi-unit pump house. . physical capability subgroup ¼ coordination, fitness,
lack of fatigue
Strength of individual elements
The model accounts for the fact that not all elements
affect overall safety performance equally. Consistent with Influence at the external—corporate and corporate—
the overall model structure, choices about levels of import- direct interfaces
ance have been made on a layer by layer basis. First, the The model philosophy proposes that external elements
relative importance of the five overall elements directly affect corporate decisions and actions, and these, in turn,
affecting accidents (behaviour, capability, weather, safety influence factors directly affecting the accident process.
design and PPE) has been quantified. Moving to the next An example would be the multiple positive effects of oper-
level, within the group of capability elements, is physical ating in a regime with an increased value placed on life,
capability more important than mental, and, by how which would result in increased pressure on companies
much? And moving down still further in the structure, to improve corporate safety culture, which in turn would
which of the physical capability elements (coordination, result in improvements in things such as personal protective
fitness and lack of fatigue) is the most important, and by equipment and staff motivation.
how much? These choices are required for all the direct Using an approach similar to that proposed by Sadiq
elements. et al. (2003), these effects have been accounted for in the
The specific decisions regarding relative element import- calculation. Matrices of ‘influence coefficients’ have been
ance were based on information gained from a survey of generated for both the external—corporate (Table 2) and
safety experts representing industry, regulatory agencies corporate—direct interfaces. As was the case for the
and the academic community. The experts were asked to strength values discussed previously, the specific values
assess, using a 1 –10 scale, each direct element’s ability used to populate the matrices were extracted from the
to affect occupational accident frequency. The arrangement expert survey. The relevant survey questions in this case
of survey questions was consistent with the model sub- asked the respondents to quantitatively assess each external
groups shown in Figure 3. The results were then normalized and corporate element’s level of influence on the corporate
to ensure that the relative importance of each element and direct level factors respectively.

Figure 6. Element strengths.

Trans IChemE, Part B, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2006, 84(B3): 208–221
 CAN WE PREDICT OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENT FREQUENCY? 215

Table 2. External—corporate influencing coefficients. Table 3. Method of element influence on junior elements.

Safety Safety Corporate (Component

training procedures safety culture reliability) 
Safety training Component Influencing (influencing
Value placed on life 0.43
0.43 0.44 reliability reliability coefficient coefficient)
Price of oil 0.18 0.19
0.18
Shareholder pressure 0.27 0.26 0.25
Value of life 0.60 0.43 0.26
Royalty regime 0.12 0.12 0.13 Price of oil 0.50 0.18 0.09
Shareholder pressure 0.40 0.27 0.11
Royalty regime 0.60 0.12 0.07
Sum of the products ¼ reliability value 0.53
There was a high degree of consistency between individ-
ual questionnaire responses. The following points can be
made for illustration.
the purposes of this example only, the initial reliabilities
. Ninety-six percent of the respondents considered value of the external factors to be 0.60, 0.50, 0.40 and 0.60, the
of life to be the external element having the most influ- reliability for safety training is calculated as shown in
ence on safety training. Table 3.
. Eighty-nine percent of the respondents considered This process does not preclude the adjustment of any
royalty regime to be the external element having the element reliability based on ‘stand alone’ specific changes
least influence on corporate safety culture. made in the respective area. For example, improvements in
. The sample standard deviations for the normalised co- personal protective equipment may be made in isolation of
efficients asterisked (
) in Table 2 were all calculated changes in the more senior elements.
as 0.07 or 0.08. It can be shown (Johnson, 2005) that
for the present sample size and these standard deviations,
the maximum error in the prediction of the mean, with
95% confidence, is about 0.02. The reliability calculation
. Figure 7 shows the relative frequency of occurrence of Overall system reliability is a function of the direct layer
normalised influence coefficients for the effect of (1) components’ reliabilities. The latter can either be directly
value of life on training, and (2) royalty regime on input, intentionally over-written, or determined from the
safety culture. corporate element reliabilities using the method described
in the previous subsection. The corporate element
The coefficients shown in Table 2 are used to adjust the reliabilities can in turn be determined from external
lower level element reliabilities whenever the higher level element values. This is consistent with the work’s general
values change. For example, the ‘reliability’ of corporate philosophy of accidents being caused directly at the work-
safety culture is automatically increased with increases in place, but being affected by corporate and external
the values associated with either ‘Value placed on life’, elements. This means that predictions can be made on the
‘Price of oil’, ‘Shareholder pressure’, or ‘Royalty regime’. basis of a complete set of direct, corporate, or external
The specific calculation is as follows (Sadiq et al., 2003). element reliabilities.
The more junior reliability (at this interface the corporate Once component reliabilities have been assigned, system
element) is the sum of the products of the reliabilities of reliability is calculated according to the following for-
those more senior elements (at this interface the external mula. The method is based on standard reliability
elements) considered to have an effect on the element, theory (Billinton and Allan, 1983), adjusted to account
and the respective influencing coefficients. For example, for relative element strength, as discussed previously.
training, as shown in Table 2, is considered to be affected
by value of life (0.43), price of oil (0.18), shareholder Rsys ¼ (Rb )sb  (Rc )sc  (Rw )sw  (Rsd )ssd  (Rppe )sppe
pressure (0.27), and royalty regime (0.12). Assuming, for
(1)

where
Rb ¼ reliability of behaviour
Rc ¼ reliability of capability
Rw ¼ reliability of weather
Rsd ¼ reliability of safety design
Rppe ¼ reliability of personal protective equipment
sb ¼ strength of behaviour
sc ¼ strength of capability
sw ¼ strength of weather
ssd ¼ strength of safety design
sppe ¼ strength of personal protective equipment
Equations to calculate these reliabilities are given in
Figure 7. Frequency of influence coefficients. Appendix A.

Trans IChemE, Part B, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2006, 84(B3): 208–221
216 ATTWOOD et al.

Expected number of accidents Table 4. Occupational accident cost.

Once system reliability has been calculated, the expected Element Cost ($ Canadian)
accident rate (usually accidents per year) is calculated
according to the well known reliability model (Billinton First aid 500.00
Procure and provide replacement worker 2500.00
and Allan, 1983) shown below.
Salary cost of replacement worker 7000.00

ðt  Management time in replacement 3500.00
Accident investigation costs 4500.00
R(t) ¼ exp  l dt ¼ elt , t.0 (2) Rehabilitation costs 2500.00
0 Reputational cost 10 000.00

where Total 30 500.00

l ¼ accident rate
R(t) ¼ system reliability remain unable to work for an average period of two weeks.
t ¼ time The cost element is determined by multiplying the cost of
Taking natural logarithms of both sides and setting t ¼ 1, an accident by the expected number of accidents.
we get:

l ¼  ln (R(t)) (3) PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS

In order to demonstrate individual elements’ relative
The suitability of this approach depends upon the validity of importance to overall system performance, a series of
an assumption of constant failure rate. The relationship hypothetical model runs have been executed. Base case
between failure rate and time for physical components is component reliabilities were determined by calibrating
characterized by (1) a high initial rate, usually caused by the model so that the output corresponded to the number
start-up problems (burn-in period), (2) a period of constant of accidents on an average platform assuming global
failure rate (useful life), and finally (3) a period of increasing industry average total recordable incident rate. Individual
failure rate (wear out) (Billinton and Allan, 1983). Because a component reliabilities were then incrementally increased
plot of this relationship has a shape similar to a bathtub, it is from the calibrated starting positions and the output
sometimes referred to as ‘the bathtub philosophy’. Applying noted. Figure 9 shows predicted numbers of accidents as
the philosophy to offshore occupational accident frequen- six factors’ individual component reliabilities are increased
cies, the parallel could be drawn that until accident causation from the starting position to 30% improvement.
became relatively well understood (i.e., during the ‘burn-in’ The greatest system improvement is seen with improve-
period), the accident rate was relatively high. However, ments in ‘value placed by society on life’, which might be
evidence (see Figure 8, overall industry Fatal Accident expected, since the results of the expert survey showed that
Rate, or FAR, defined as fatalities per 100 million hours it heavily affects all three corporate elements, which in turn
worked) exists to confirm that the industry has reached a affect the direct elements. The next most important
state of relatively constant accident rate, which validates elements are safety culture and safety design. Safety culture
the required constant failure rate assumption. heavily influences the direct elements, and safety design
‘improvements’ prove more influential than weather, lack
The cost of accidents of fatigue, and price of oil, due to the following
The model provides a method to evaluate cost savings considerations.
associated with accident frequency reduction. Financial . safety design (0.21) carries a higher “strength” value than
rewards can be immediately observed upon improvements weather (0.15), as derived from the poll of safety experts;
made in individual components, which will encourage an . whilst capability and safety design carry similar strength
optimisation of safety spending. The model assumes an aver- values (0.21), lack of fatigue is a sub-element of capa-
age offshore accident will have costs as detailed in Table 4 bility only, and is a member of the group of physical
(Attwood, 2005). It has been assumed that the worker will

Figure 8. Overall oil and gas fatal accident rate versus time (International Figure 9. Number of accidents versus improvement in component
Association of Oil & Gas Producers, 2004). reliability.

Trans IChemE, Part B, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2006, 84(B3): 208–221
 CAN WE PREDICT OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENT FREQUENCY? 217

Table 5. Cost savings versus individual component Example 1: Ideal Situation versus Worst
reliability improvement.
Case Scenario
Cost savings on
Factor 30% improvement ($)
Consider a drilling contractor interested in comparing
predicted safety results under the opposite extremes
Value placed on life 2876 described below:
Safety culture 2416 Ideal case:
Safety design 1657
Price of oil 1252 . operating in a region where society places a high value
Weather 1185 on life;
Lack of fatigue 251
. the client demands, and is offered, the very best safety
equipment, procedures, and training schemes;
. the weather conditions are benign;
elements, which carry relatively lower strength values . the available workforce has a generally cautious attitude
(0.36) than mental factors (0.64); toward safety concerns;
. price of oil was, on average, assigned a relatively low . the price of oil is at a relatively high level.
influencing coefficient (0.18) (compared to its external Worst case:
factor competitors value of life (0.43) and shareholder
pressure (0.26)). . operating in a region where societal value of life is less
than average;
At first glance these results might encourage operators to . the client is interested in developing a marginal field and
immediately attempt to increase the value placed by society is therefore satisfied with safety equipment, proce-
on life. It is noted that this suggestion represents a reversal dures and training schemes which (only) comply with
in the direction of influence proposed by this research, from regulatory requirements;
external through corporate to direct factors, but as oil . the weather conditions are extreme;
companies grow over more influential and operate in . the workforce is generally categorised as more risk-
sometimes impoverished countries, such a thought is not taking than average;
inconceivable. Also, a 30% change in a cultural attitude . the price of oil is at a relatively low level.
such as value placed on life would be next to impossible
to achieve. On the other hand, organisations have it The model can be used to predict the number of acci-
within their power to produce a 30% enhancement in dents under these two extremes, as compared to average
things such as safety design, corporate safety culture, and conditions. To do this the model is run three times:
lack of worker fatigue. . a ‘base case’ with all factor reliabilities set at average
The large effect produced by changes in the value of life value;
factor also highlights the difficulties organisations face when . an ‘ideal’ case where all factor reliabilities are set at
oil and gas reserves are discovered in regions where societal average value þ20%;
value of life is lower than that in more developed regions. . a ‘worst case’ scenario where all factor reliabilities are
This will continue to be a challenge for operators as reserves set at average value – 20%.
in more safety conscious areas are depleted.
Table 5 shows cost savings (based on the method and The result is shown in Figure 10. The actual figures
estimated cost of a single accident documented previously) resulting from these extremes (4.8 for worst case versus
realized with a 30% improvement in six individual compo- 3.8 for ideal) indicate that for a typical 100 POB (persons
nents. In the current financial environment where the price on board) platform, one less accident per year is predicted
of a barrel of oil exceeds USD $50, possibly the only value for the ideal situation than for the worst case scenario. The
which would get the attention of a major operator is that cost saving associated with this would be about CAD $30K,
obtained with a 30% improvement in the ‘value placed on which is not very significant in today’s world of oil
life’ element, and, as mentioned earlier, this would likely company finance. However, since occupational accidents
prove very costly to implement. Discussions with operator periodically result in fatalities, the avoidance of a single
safety representatives indicate, however, that despite the rela- accident can be quite attractive from other (for example
tively modest financial rewards, there is no lack of appetite for public relations) perspectives. On a percentage basis, a
attempts to improve safety. Political and reputational benefits 21% improvement in safety results is achieved when the
are sufficiently attractive to maintain a strong desire to pro- change from worst to best case conditions is made, which
duce the best possible safety results. seems appropriate.

EXAMPLE CASES Example 2: Rig Hired and Moved to Location

The model can be used for a variety of purposes. Three The model can be used to predict changes in safety
examples are presented here. The first compares safety results as an asset moves through stages in its life cycle.
results in an ‘ideal’ situation to those obtained in a ‘worst For mobile drilling units (MDU), a typical cycle
case’ scenario. Two subsequent examples show how the includes idle time, hiring, mobilization, operating, and
model can be used to predict changes in occupational acci- de-mobilization. The corresponding stages for a fixed
dent probability as an asset moves through different stages installation include construction, installation, commission-
in its operational life, i.e. from ‘off hire’ to operating in a ing, operating and decommissioning. The examples in
given regime, or during the de-mobilization process. this and the next section concern a MDU.

Trans IChemE, Part B, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2006, 84(B3): 208–221
218 ATTWOOD et al.

Figure 10. Results of Example 1. Figure 11. Accidents versus position in hiring/operational cycle.

Upon hire of an idle MDU, an operator will specify things (4) Take on staff with superior safety attitude—this factor
such as operational and training requirements, safety targets, adjusted to average þ20%.
and so on, all of which will affect safety results. The drilling (5) Purchase enhanced PPE—this factor adjusted to aver-
location will be specified, and this will, by definition, deter- age þ20%.
mine the reliability values assigned to weather, value placed (6) Move to region with lower than average value placed
by society on life, and royalty regime. on life—this factor adjusted to average – 20%.
Furthermore, crew make-up will be a determining factor (7) Move to area with poor operating (weather) con-
in safety results. In most cases operators will be required by ditions—this factor adjusted to average –20%.
national legislation to employ local workers for most jobs. Note that the number of predicted accidents reduces with
If this is not the case, however, some operators prefer to each positive change, but moving to an area with lower
avoid the perceived risk associated with using a local work- than average value placed on life and harsh weather con-
force that may, for many reasons, be more likely to experi- ditions returns the value close to the original prediction.
ence accidents than a group more familiar to the operator,
the unit, and the offshore business. Alternatively, the oper-
ator may insist on replacing the MDU’s normal crew with Example 3: Rig Taken Off-Hire
another deemed more safety conscious. In any event, these Similar to Example 2, Figure 12 shows accident prob-
decisions will have a significant affect on safety results. ability as a rig is taken off hire. In this case, it is proposed
Figure 11 presents results of model runs conducted to that a local and unfamiliar crew is replaced by one more
predict changes in accident probability as a MDU moves familiar with the rig and its safety arrangements, the rig
from an idle condition to one where enhanced safety pro- is moved from harsh to calmer weather conditions, and
cedures and training programmes are implemented, a work- the company decides to abandon enhanced safety training
force with superior safety attitude is hired, better PPE is and procedures.
purchased, and the MDU is moved to a harsh weather To study this scenario, the model is run five times—once
area where value placed on life is lower than average. for each of the changes indicated below. The ‘base case’ in
To study this scenario, the model is run seven times— this scenario is the ‘on hire’ condition—subsequent runs
once for each of the changes in situation indicated below. predict incremental changes in accident rate from this
Note the changes are sequential, and factor reliabilities base case. Note the changes are sequential, and factor
are not reset to average between runs. reliabilities are not reset to average between runs.
(1) Base case—all factors set at average value. (1) Base case—all factors set at average value.
(2) Improve safety procedures—this factor adjusted to (2) Replace unfamiliar crew with one more familiar with
average þ20%. rig—this factor adjusted to average þ20%.
(3) Improve safety training process—this factor adjusted to (3) Return to benign weather conditions—this factor
average þ20%. adjusted to average þ20%.

Trans IChemE, Part B, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2006, 84(B3): 208–221
 CAN WE PREDICT OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENT FREQUENCY? 219

The model predicts financial rewards and penalties

associated with changes in various safety factors. Users can
conveniently see the effects of changes in safety elements,
offering them a practical means of deciding where to spend
their available capital.
As with any research, possibilities for enhancements
exist. Improved knowledge with respect to strength of indi-
vidual factors and influence of senior factors on junior
members can be directly input. Changes in structural
relationships are possible with very little effort, as are
additions of newly considered elements. For example, it
would be interesting to consider the inclusion of a function
to model the reputation and political benefits associated
with a reduction in accident frequency, or to include
these types of pressures as external input factors.
The authors believe that the proposed reliability based
model, with its capability to predict occupational accidents
and offers direction and focus to the safety improvement
effort in the offshore oil and gas industry. The next stage
in the research will be the application of the model to a
real offshore oil and gas project.

Figure 12. Rig taken off hire.

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The manuscript was received 13 May 2005 and accepted for publication
after revision 19 September 2005.
Ivlt ¼ influence coefficient of value of life on safety
training
Ipopr ¼ influence coefficient of price of oil on safety
procedures
APPENDIX A Isppr ¼ influence coefficient of shareholder pressure on
Rw (reliability value for weather conditions) is a direct safety procedures
input (independent variable not based on the values of Irrpr ¼ influence coefficient of royalty regime on safety
other elements). Reliabilities of the other elements are procedures

Trans IChemE, Part B, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2006, 84(B3): 208–221
 CAN WE PREDICT OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENT FREQUENCY? 221

Ivlpr ¼ influence coefficient of value of life on safety slf ¼ strength of lack of fatigue
procedures sc ¼ strength of coordination
Iposc ¼ influence coefficient of price of oil on safety
Mental capability:
culture
Ispsc ¼ influence coefficient of shareholder pressure on Rme ¼ (1  (1  Rk )sk  (1  Ri )si ) composed of:
safety culture Knowledge:
Irrsc ¼ influence coefficient of royalty regime on safety
Rk ¼ Rt  Itk þ Rpr  Iprk þ Rsc  Isck
culture
Ivlsc ¼ influence coefficient of value of life on safety Intelligence:
culture Ri ¼ direct input

Capability: where:
sp sme
Rc ¼ (Rp )  (Rme ) composed of: Itk ¼ influence coefficient of safety training on
Physical capability: knowledge
Rp ¼ (1  (1  Rf )sf  (1  Rlf )slf  (1  Rc )sc ) Iprk ¼ influence coefficient of safety procedures on
knowledge
composed of: Isck ¼ influence coefficient of safety culture on
Fitness: knowledge
Rf ¼ Rt  Itf þ Rpr  Iprf þ Rsc  Iscf sk ¼ strength of knowledge
Lack of fatigue: si ¼ strength of intelligence
Rlf ¼ Rt  Itlf þ Rpr  Iprlf þ Rsc  Isclf Safety Design:
Coordination: Rsd ¼ Rt  Itsd þ Rpr  Iprsd þ Rsc  Iscsd
Rc ¼ direct input
where:
where: Itsd ¼ influence coefficient of safety training on
Itf ¼ influence coefficient of safety training on fitness safety design
Iprf ¼ influence coefficient of safety procedures on Iprsd ¼ influence coefficient of safety procedures on
fitness safety design
Iscf ¼ influence coefficient of safety culture on fitness Iscsd ¼ influence coefficient of safety culture on
Itlf ¼ influence coefficient of safety training on lack of safety design
fatigue
PPE:
Iprlf ¼ influence coefficient of safety procedures on lack
of fatigue Rppe ¼ Rt  Itppe þ Rpr  Iprppe þ Rsc  Iscppe
Isclf ¼ influence coefficient of safety culture on lack of
where:
fatigue
sp ¼ strength of physical capability Itppe ¼ influence coefficient of safety training on PPE
sme ¼ strength of mental capability Iprppe ¼ influence coefficient of safety procedures on PPE
sf ¼ strength of fitness Iscppe ¼ influence coefficient of safety culture on PPE

Trans IChemE, Part B, Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2006, 84(B3): 208–221