jashore university of science and technology, jashore

4/20/2020

An assignment on
Delta Formation of Bangladesh

Submitted by submitted to

Name: Tirtha Debnath

Roll: 191907
Session:2019-2020
Year:1st
Semester:1st
Department Name: Biomedical Engineering
Faculty Name: Engineering & Technology
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DELTA FORMATION OF BANGLADESH

Definition: A Delta is a land form compromised of sediment found at the

mouth of the river. A Delta can only form when river channels carry sediment

into another body of water. This is because the sediment land mass developed at

mouth of this river formed a developed at mouth of this river formed a

triangular shape that look like the upper-case Greek letter Delta(Δ).

ABSTRACT

Bangladesh, occupying low-lying floodplains and tidal plains, has one of the

largest and the most disaster-prone populous deltas in the world. The Bengal

Delta is a tide-dominated delta, where tides play the key role in the sediment

dispersal process and in shaping the delta. There are many studies and reports on

river-dominated deltas, but research is sparse on tide-dominated deltas. The

Ganges, Meghna and Brahmaputra Rivers, which combined form one of the three

largest riverine sources of water and sediment for the world’s oceans, have

developed the Bengal Delta to its present form with an aerial extent of 104km2.

About 1012m3 of water with 109 tones’ of sediment per year make this system

morphologically active. In the last five decades, the Bengal Delta has prograde at
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a rate of 17 km2/y, whereas most large deltas elsewhere in the world suffered from

sediment starvation. Delta progradation always makes the river system unstable,

and rapid changes cause the delta to become dynamic. The Ganges-

Brahmaputra-Meghna (Bengal) Delta in Bangladesh has been described as a

delta in peril of catastrophic coastal flooding because sediment deposition on

delta plain surfaces is insufficient to offset rates of subsidence and sea level rise.

Widespread armoring of the delta by coastal embankments meant to protect crops

from flooding has limited natural floodplain deposition, and in the tidally

dominated delta, dikes lead to rapid compaction and lowered land surface levels.

This renders the deltaic floodplains susceptible to flooding by sea level rise and

storm surges capable of breaching poorly maintained embankments. However,

natural physical processes are spatially variable across the delta front and

therefore the impact of dikes on sediment dispersal and morphology should

reflect these variations. We present the first ever reported sedimentation rates

from the densely populated and human-controlled floodplains of the central

lower Bengal Delta. We combine direct sedimentation measurements and short-

lived radionuclides to show that transport processes and lateral sedimentation

are highly variable across the delta. Overall aggradation rates average 2.3 ± 9 cm

y-1, which is more than double the estimated average rate of local sea level rise;

83% of sampled sites contained sediment tagged with detectable 7Be, indicating
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flood-pulse sourced sediments are widely delivered to the delta plain, including

embanked areas. A numerical model is then used to demonstrate lateral accretion

patterns arising from 50 years of sedimentation delivered through smaller order

channels. Dominant modes of transport are reflected in the sediment routing and

aggradation across the lower delta plain, though embankments are major

controls on sediment dynamics throughout the delta. This challenges the

assumption that the Bengal Delta is doomed to drown; rather it signifies that

effective preparation for climate change requires consideration of how

infrastructure and spatially variable physical dynamics influence sediment

dispersal on seasonal and decadal time scales. Sea level rise induced by

unequivocal climate change and subsidence would make the delta more

vulnerable in the coming decades. Although some literature is available on the

millennium scale development process of the Bengal Delta, sound knowledge on

the decade- to century scale processes of the delta development for facing the

threats of climate change and deltaic subsidence is limited. In addition, there are

significant differences in opinions and widely varying findings in the literature to

the response of the delta to different natural and human interventions. Against

this backdrop, relevant available literature on Bengal Delta and deltas elsewhere

in the world, is reviewed and evaluated to provide direction for future research
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that would help to form a way out of the present situation and a way into

sustainable planning for this delta.

Main Points:

 Built on the confluence of 3 mighty rivers the Ganges, the Bramaputra and

the Meghna.

 Largest dynamic delta of the world around 700 rivers:57 trans-boundary

(54 with India and 3 with Myanmar).

 93% catchment area lies outside Bangladesh with annual sediment load of

1.0 to 1.4 billion tones.

 Abundance of water in wet season but scarcity of water in dry season.

INTRODUCTION

The Bengal Delta is the largest delta in the world. It drains almost all of the

Himalayas, the most sediment producing mountains in the world, through the

three main river systems: the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna. These systems

carry the world’s largest sediment load, more than 1 billion tons of sediment

every year, of which nearly 80% is delivered during the four monsoon months.
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Bangladesh, with more than 2% of the world’s population and a density of more

than 1080 people/km2, has a highly vulnerable coastal environment. The

Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), or Bengal, Delta in South Asia is a

densely populated river delta formed from sediment deposited within the

tectonically active Bengal Basin (Figure 1). Based on observations from river

gauges on the main stem Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers, a combined billion

tons of sediment is annually transported from source areas in the Himalayas to

the active delta in Bangladesh. River processes such as avulsion and overbank

flooding naturally maintain the Bengal Delta’s active floodplain, and reworking

of fluvial sediment by tides onto the lower delta planform sustains the “aban-

doned” lobe of the mangrove-forested southwest delta. Collectively, fluvial and

tidal processes have enabled overall delta accretion to offset rising sea level since

the mid-Holocene. Despite 1 Gt of sediment released to the delta each year, the

modern Bengal Delta is labeled as a “delta in peril” of catastrophic coastal

flooding because the volume of sediment transported to floodplains is insufficient

to offset rates of subsidence and increasing coastal water levels. Tessler and

others profile risk and socio-economic vulnerability trends for 48 major delta’s

worldwide and find the >140 million people living on the GBM are increasingly at

risk of coastal flooding related to local sea level rise and storm surges.

Infrastructure designed to reduce the risk of devastating floods on the delta’s

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surface also restricts sediment deposition on coastal floodplains. Beginning in the

1960’s, government-built dikes were constructed around inhabited island

perimeters of coastal Bangladesh in an effort to increase land area for rice paddy

cultivation and to protect crops from tidal flooding (Rahman, 1994). Sea level rise

(SLR) of 1 m would cause inundation of 17%. 21% of the total area of

Bangladesh. Because more than half of the area is less than 5 m above mean sea

level, according to the digital elevation model, it could be more vulnerable for

higher SLR and a high rate of subsidence. Differences in opinions are found in

the literature on the impacts of climate change and subsidence. To address these

impacts in the coming decades, it is necessary to review the varieties of ideas on

different processes acting on the delta and seek to find some sustainable solution.

Furthermore, many research studies have been carried out on river dominated

deltas, but few have focused on tide-dominated deltas, where tide plays the key

role in shaping the delta. Even existing practices of delta models rarely include

the interaction amongst rivers, floodplains, and tidal plains, because the

processes in the delta system are complicated. Most delta models consider a static

river system when they assess the long-term effects of climate change
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Figure 1:Tectonically Active Bengal Basin

Geological Setting of the study area: Bengal Delta

Several million years ago, the NE portion of the Indo Australian plate fractured

and sank below what was then sea level. This depressed basin then attracted all

rivers to meet the sea. In the course of time, this depression filled with the

sediment to form the present Bengal Basin. The basin is prograding from a NE

hinge line. Deposition of 4 km of deposits at the hinge and more than 10 km at the

shelf break has made the world’s largest fan deposits, with a volume of

approximately 1.25x107 km3 for approximately 3x106 km2 of area, mainly carried

by the Ganges–Brahmaputra Rivers from the fore slope and backslope of the

Himalayas, respectively. Bangladesh occupies the major part of the basin.

Geographically, the basin is the entire lowland, which is bounded by the Shillong

Plateau on the North, the Burma Arc foldbelt on the East, the Bay of Bengal on
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the South, and the Indian Craton on the west. The basin is separated from the

Chittagong region by the Feni River. The geology of the Bengal Delta is mostly

characterized by the uplifting of both the Himalayan mountains to the North and

the frontal belt of the Indo-Burman Range to the East, tectonic subsidence, and

refilling by rivers that has progressed towards the South. The basin comprises

Tertiary highlands, the Barind and Madhupur Tracts as uplifted deposits of the

Pleistocene, and the Comilla Terrace of the Holocene. These are the natural

controls that regulate river course shifting or avulsion.

Fluvial Setting of the rivers in the delta: Three large rivers, the Ganges,

Brahmaputra, and Meghna, are the main fluvial sources of the basin. The

Ganges River, with an average of 1200 mm of rainfall over about 1,000,000 km2

of catchments, produces an annual average discharge of about 11,300 m3/s, along

with producing sediment at 550 million tons/y. The Brahmaputra River covers

573,000 km2 with an average rainfall of 1900 mm, and it results in an annual

average discharge of 20,200 m3/s with 590 million tons/y sediment. A total of 1

trillion m3 of water and sediment at a rate of 1 billion tons/y, as the combined

flow of the Ganges, Jamuna (the downstream continuation of the Brahmaputra),

and Meghna Rivers, are delivered to the Bay of Bengal through the Lower

Meghna River. The sediment carried by the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna

Rivers has contributed to the present size of the delta, which is about 100,000 km2.
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The average flood discharges of the Jamuna, Ganges, Padma (the main branches

of the Ganges and Jamuna), and Upper Meghna Rivers are 70,000, 52,000,

95,000, and 13,700 m3/s as measured at Bahadurabad, Hardinge Bridge, Mawa,

and Bhairab Bazar, respectively. The average low flow discharges are 4250, 600,

and 4800 m3/s for the Jamuna, Ganges, and Padma Rivers. The mean sizes of the

bed material in the Jamuna, Ganges, Padma, Upper Meghna, and Lower

Meghna Rivers are 0.20, 0.15, 0.12, 0.14, and 0.09 mm, respectively. The

planform of the rivers varies from meandering to braiding over space and time

(the Jamuna is braided, the Ganges is meandering, and the Padma is a

wandering river). The Upper Meghna is anastomosing, and the Lower Meghna

is Ana branching. Along with the sediment transported by these main rivers, the

other two major distributaries, the Gorai and the Arial Khan, contribute in

transporting fluvial inputs to the delta system. The Gorai River delivers annually

about 30 billion m3 of water and 30 million tons of sediment to the bay, and the

Arial Khan River supplies about 30 billion m3 of flow and 25 million tons of

sediment every year. The Arial Khan River is connected to the Lower Meghna

River, which contributes to the present delta building process. This process is

continuing in the Meghna estuary area. There are three major distributaries, the

Shahbajpur, Hatiya, and Tentulia Channels, through which most of the water

and sediment enter the Bay of Bengal. Tides are semidiurnal, with a slight
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diurnal inequality, along the coast of the Bengal Delta (including the Indian

part), and the average tidal range varies from 1.5 m in the West to more than 4 m

at the NE tip of the Meghna estuary. However, the Meghna estuary is a mesotidal

estuary, where the tidal range varies between 2 and 4 m.

Average Rainfall Per mm

1900
1200

Gangas Column2 Brahmaputra

Producing Sediment million

tons per year

550 590

Ganges Bramhaputra

Column1 Column2
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The average Discharge Rate per m3/s

95000

70000

52000

13700
Ganges Jamuna Padma Upper Meghna River

Series 3

The average Low flow discharge

4800
per m3/s
4250

600
Jamuna Ganges Padma

Series 2 Series 3
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The Mean Size of the Bed Material per mm

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
Jamuna Ganges Padma Upper Meghna Lower Meghna

Series 3

Decade Scale Delta Development:

During the last 255 few decades, several changes occurred in the distributaries. Some of them
have been recognized, and some of them are yet to come onto the scene. The causes of these
changes could be both anthropogenic and natural. Many artificial changes have been made in
this region during 20th century. In the western part of the delta, the Gorai River has diverted
50% to 95% of its flow to its SW-directed distributary, the Nabaganga River. CEGIS mentioned
that before the construction of the Madaripur Beel Route (MBR) in the early 1900s, the main
flow of the Gorai-Madhumati River was moving to the Baleswar
River and the Nabaganga River discharged into the Rupsha–Passur system. Early in the 19th
century, a small link canal, the Helifex cut, was created near Bardia, about 20 km upstream of
the MBR confluence with Gorai-Madhumati River, and then the main flow of the
Gorai-Madhumati River gradually shifted to the Nabaganga River and finally met the Passur
system through the Atai and Rupsha Rivers. At present, more than 90% of the flow of the
Gorai-Madhumati River runs through the Nabaganga River. Downstream of the Bardia, the
Atharbanki River (a seasonal connection) exits from the Gorai-Madhumati River
(Manikdaha) and joins the Rupsha River. A small percentage of the combined flows of the
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Gorai-Madhumati River and the MBR presently move into the Baleswar River through the
Kaliganga and Kacha Rivers. Because the depth of the Passur system is higher than that of
the Baleswar system, the tide comes earlier through the Passur system. CEGIS (2012)
rationalized that although the Baleswar River carries freshwater, the early flow of the tide
from the Passur system through the Rupsha–Atai–Nabaganga system brings saline water
downstream of the MBR. Likewise, the Nabaganga River’s many distributaries generated SW
from the Lower Meghna and Arial Khan Rivers are becoming enlarged in terms of depth and
width, and the Shandhya is a newly developed river in the SW region of Bangladesh that
became visible in a 1973 image. Coastal Morphology and Erosion/Accretion Processes
Allison (1998), Environmental and Geographic Information Services (EGIS, 1997), Eysink
(1983), the Meghna Estuary Study (MES II, 2001), and Sarkeret al. (2011) have studied
erosion and accretion in the coastal region of Bangladesh. The study periods varied from a
few years to several centuries; thus, the rates of change vary significantly. The century- to
decade-scale erosion–accretion estimations were carried out mainly based on available
historical map. They found that erosion is the dominating process along the coast of the
Sundarbans. The average annual rate of accretion during the last 37 years was 4.8 km2/y.
Recognizing that net accretion is the dominating processes along the Bangladesh coast,
mentioned that because of lack of sediment supply, along with SLR, the coast along the
Sundarbans is experiencing an erosion phase. However, satellite image analyses of 1973 and
2010 reveal that net erosion prevails along the total Sundarbans coastal area both in
Bangladesh and India. However, net accretion is found in the Hoogly River estuary and in the
presently active coastal part of the Meghna estuary. This part of the Meghna estuary is fluvial
flow and sediment dominated, whereas the western part of the basin in Bangladesh and India,
including the Sundarbans, is tide and wave dominated. Net accretion in the Meghna estuary
area is about 790 km2. This indicates that yearly net accretion is more than 21 km2. It is notable
that the flow to the Hoogly River is not natural. It has been achieved by diverting Ganges water
after construction of the Farakka Barrage in India during the mid- 1970s.

Sediment Distribution Process in the active delta building estuary:

After a consecutive sequence of active estuary shifting, such as the Hoogly, Gorai, and Arial
Khan, the present active delta building estuary is the Meghna estuary. Almost all flow and
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sediment is presently passing through the Meghna estuary. Therefore, to understand the
future development of the delta, we must understand the past and present formation of the
estuary. The sediment distribution process in the active estuary is responsible for reclaiming
land in some favorable condition. The complex interaction between fluvial and tidal flow,
along with waves, influences the morphology of the estuary. Every year, the estuary receives
more than 1 billion tons of sediment with 1 trillion m3 of flow from 92% of the catchments in
Bhutan, Nepal, China, and India. The flow and sediment finally meet the sea through three
major distributary systems: the Tentulia, Shahbajpur, and Hatiya Channels. The sediment
discharge from the Lower Meghna River is the third highest and the water discharge is the
fourth highest of all river systems in the world. The volumetric quantity of flow and sediment
could well be visualized by 7 m of water and 3.5 mm of sediment column spread over the land of
Bangladesh
(147,570 km2). Although the Hatiya Channel was active a few decades ago, after development
of the eastern part the fluvial process in the Shahbajpur Channel has become more active than
the tidal process. Even the flow distribution processes change rapidly amongst the channels in
this
dynamic estuary. The sizes and shapes of several large islands (Bhola, Hatiya, and Sandwip)
and their locations in the estuary play the key role in distributing the flow and sediment shows
the sediment circulation processes in the Meghna estuary, as described in MES II studies,
based on
measurements and modelling exercises. The circulation process is important for horizontal
and vertical land development when sediment and tidal asymmetry occur. The formation of the
delta morphology and planform are complexly controlled by river discharge, tidal range, and
wave energy flux, although there are other influencing factors, such as grain size distribution,
SLR, human engineering, sediment cohesion, and angular distribution of wave energy. The
river-dominated Mississippi Delta is formed by developing delta lobes like the foot of a bird. In
bird-foot deltas, rivers have higher energy than that of waves and tides. On the contrary, the
formation of estuaries with high tidal energy demonstrates distributary funnel shaped channels
with linear river-mouth bars, such as the Meghna estuary. In a river dominated delta, sediment
deposition occurs by river flushing, whereas the river carries sediment that is then redistributed
by the tides in the tide-dominated deltas. The ratio of the distribution of freshwater has yearly
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seasonal variation and occurs over a period of decades, depending on the channel developing
processes, in the Meghna estuary. The monsoon flow distributions in the Tentulia, Hatiya, and
Shahbajpur Channels are 15%, 10%, and 75%, respectively.

The percentage of monsoon flow distribution

Tentulia
15% Hatiya
10% Shahbajpur

75%

The bed material of the channels is fine sand and silt with grain size varying from 0.016 to 0.25
mm. The fine fractions of the sediment control the sediment reworking process. The magnitude
of the maximum suspended sediment concentration at the NE part of the Meghna estuary in
the Sandwip Channel was found to be 9000 ppm with a flow velocity of 4 m/s, indicating the
dynamism of the estuarine environment. The sediment characteristics, tidal range and
characteristics, waves, and planform of the estuary are the main governing processes in
distributing the sediment. The monsoon flow’s sediment input into the estuary is 20 to 30
times higher than that of the dry seasonal flow; however, most sediment enters the estuary
during monsoon. The lower limit of the Shahbajpur Channel is seen to be the turbidity
maximum, where a finer fraction of the sediment takes up temporary residence. Sediment
concentrations at turbidity maximum locations, which generally occur in the low salinity zone
and shift location with flood discharge changes, are as high as about 2000 ppm. The location of
the turbidity maximum moves back and forth with the tide, causing fine sediment movement
before its final deposition. The temporary storage of fine sediment during the monsoon is the
zone of the turbidity maximum, which is the main source of sediment redistribution during the
dry season. However, dry season sediment supply is insignificant in comparison to that of the
monsoon season, except in the NE zone of the tide-dominated Meghna estuary. No significant
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seasonal variation was found in this zone. Sedimentation in the estuary depends on the relative
strength of the flood and ebb tide in the channels. During monsoon, the high flow velocity
generally transports sediment to the shallow intertidal area by a tidal pumping process; then,
the sediment is dispersed to the NE part of the estuary by a tidal circulation process.
Mathematical modelling, along with field observation, showed that the freshwater flow to the
Shahbajpur and Hatiya Channels forms loop circulations around the islands Sandwip, Urir
Char, and Jahajer Char (MES II, 2001). High sediment input from upstream and high tidal
energy from downstream make the estuary dynamic. Thus, the estuary has been characterized
by several thousand squares
kilometers of land erosion accretion every year. Erosion in channels mainly occurs by
shifting and widening, whereas around islands it occurs by retrenchment. However, accretion
occurs by the formation of the mainland towards the sea and the extension and improvement
of islands. Recent research from CEGIS (2010) indicates that in the Meghna estuary, the
dispersal process of the fine-sand fraction of sediment is different from that of silt and clay. The
ratio of fine sand to silt and clay coming through the rivers is 1:4. Preliminary findings of
research from CEGIS (2010) showed that when more of the coarse fraction of the sediment
with fine sand was in the Meghna estuary during the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, the net
accretion was
very high in the Bhola and Patuakhali districts. But in other decades (between the 1950s and
the 2010s), when the coarse fraction was lower and the fine fraction (silt and clay) was
higher, the net accretion was significantly higher in the Noakhali district. This indicates the
roles of fine sand and of silt and clay in reclaiming land in the estuaries. Further research on
this issue could help to mitigate erosion in the western part of the delta in different scenarios
of sediment change through intervention and land-use management in the catchments.

Subsidence in the Bengal Delta:

Deltas are naturally dynamic coastal systems that are unique in their close links to both land
based fluvial and coastal ocean processes. Subsidence of unconsolidated deltaic sediments is
a natural process occurring constantly in deltas as a result of natural and anthropogenic
processes of different scales. Natural subsidence occurs largely as a result of compaction of
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deltaic deposits, tectonics, and isostasy. Moreover, most deltas overlie deeply buried deposits
that are gradually subsiding by compaction. Natural subsidence rates in deltas is slow,
generally ranging from less than 1 to more than 10 mm/y, whereas anthropogenic activities,
such as groundwater or gas extraction, cause rapid subsidence on a several-centimeter scale.
The rapid subsidence rate varies from 22 cm/y in western Indonesia to tens of centimeters per
year in Mexico City and Las Vegas. However, compaction because of anthropogenic activities
may accelerate the natural subsidence. If the subsidence rate is greater than the global sea
level rise (GSLR), then it has an impact on socioenvironmental issues. Misconceptions about
land subsidence has significantly affected coastal development. In many cases, relative sea
level rise (RSLR) includes subsidence and GSLR. Hence, subsidence in any delta can be
found directly from RSLR, because GSLR is already known.
Accurate measurements of subsidence within deltas are rare. The subsidence measurement
procedure mainly depends on the country’s economic condition and the importance of the
area. Traditional measurements of land subsidence using GPS and levelling data are location
specific and may not reflect the actual condition. They are also highly time consuming and
costly. Presently, by using In SAR, a powerful new synthetic aperture radar mapping tool,
many developed countries are monitoring land subsidence in many metropolitan areas, such
as Las Vegas, Mexico City, Paris, Naples, Venice, Lisbon, and Shanghai. But subsidence rate
calculation in Bangladesh so far has been mainly based on satellite image and borehole data
analysis. Comparing the carbon-dating year of borehole samples with the GSLR has been the
basis for subsidence rate measurement in the recent years. Church and Gregory (2001)
mentioned that GSLR rose slowly during the last 3000 years until rates apparently began to
increase during the middle of the 19th century. It is widely
believed that GSLR could accelerate during the 21st century, primarily because of warming
of the global climate and the associated thermal expansion of oceans and melting of the
Greenland and Antarctic ice caps and glaciers. They attribute the GSLR to changes in mass of
the oceans (i.e. the addition of glacial meltwater), along with the effects on the world’s
oceans (i.e. thermal expansion and salinity changes). Miller and Douglas (2004) estimated
that the GSLR during the 20th century typically ranged between 1.5 and 2 mm/y. Today, the
GSLR is positive and contributes around 1.8 to 3 mm/y under the anthropogenic influence of
global warming (Church and White, 2006; Syvitskiet al., 2009).
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Like the NE region of Bangladesh, called the Sylhet Basin, the SW part is experiencing
subsidence, though only to a limited extent, by groundwater abstraction (not gas abstraction)
in a few urban areas such as Khulna. In addition, sediments carried through during Holocene,
Pleistocene, and Tertiary have contributed to form much of the Ganges Delta. Because most
of the sediment is sandy (Zahid and Ahmed, 2006), it is not susceptible to compaction by
water abstraction. Moreover, Holocene peat layers underlying large parts of the tidal
floodplain have remained saturated since their formation and so have not shrunk by drying
out—except locally, where water has been abstracted for city dwellers under Khulna City
Corporation. Hence, the cause of subsidence in this region is tectonic movement or faulting in
the Bengal Basin within which the region lies, possibly complicated by folds and faults
within the basin (Stanley and Hait, 2000; Steckler, Akhter, and Seeber, 2008).
Previous studies have shown that significant subsidence or a RSLR has taken place over the
entire Holocene based on sediment accumulation rates of 1 to 4 mm/y for the eastern
Sundarbans outer delta plain (Allison and Kepple, 2001) and no more than 5 mm/y for the
western Sundarbans (Stanley and Hait, 2000). Morgan and McIntire (1959) found subsidence
of 3.7 to 6.7 m in the Sundarbans area and 6.1 m in Sekhertek near the Sibsha River through
shallow auger boring, though they did not mention any duration to calculate the rate of
subsidence. Likewise, the subsidence rate in the Sundarbans, which is unintervened, is 1.3 to
7.1 mm/y, based on calculation of depths to radiocarbon-dated organic materials (Allisonet
al., 2003; Brammer, 2014). However, based on radiocarbon dating of wood, peat, and shale,
Umitsu (1993) stated that the coastal areas of Bangladesh are subsiding at a rate of about 3
mm/y.
Mikhailov and Dotsenko (2007) reported that the RSLR in the sea exposed part of this delta
is 10 to 20 mm/y. Ericsonet al. (2006) also reported that the subsidence rate, as high as 25
mm/y, results partially from groundwater extraction through shallow and deep tube wells
(Alam, 1996; Haq, 1997). Though subsidence rates in excess of 25 mm/y might not be
acceptable (Nicholls and Goodbred, 2005), many studies have reported such a magnitude
mainly based on artefacts and tree stumps that are buried in the lower coastal plain. The
uncertainty of carbon dating and location of artefacts is very high, which may run the risk of
producing unattainable results of short-term to long-term subsidence rates. If there were such
subsidence, rapid sedimentation would balance the vertical land loss. No place in this area
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has, until now, been reported as a hotspot of land loss. For such a huge sediment rate, enhanced
flooding could also be reported.
A recent study by Syvitskiet al. (2009) on subsidence has made scientists and decision
makers to pay more attention. The study authors estimated the rate of RSLR for the different
deltas in the world. They used Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data to relate the
topography of the delta with mean sea level; historical maps to know the river shifting;
ModerateResolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite images to establish the extent (on
the delta) of flooding and their sources, from river runoff or from coastal storm surges; and
the presence of suspended sediment in the floodwaters. They also tried to determine whether
the deltas are developing with the SLR by adding new sediment layers to their surface during
periods of flooding. They claimed that the Bengal Delta was sinking at a very high rate of 8
to 18 mm/y. The Bengal Delta was amongst their 33 ‘sinking deltas’ worldwide, and they
argued that these deltas were experiencing large subsidence rates attributed to human
activities such as embankment construction and water or gas abstraction. Their results,
however, are not supported by the ground truths. The Ganges Delta includes the Ganges
River floodplain, not just the tidal floodplain assumed by the authors, and there is no field
evidence that either of these regions is subsiding at such a high rate. However, subsidence
rates are not uniform within the area.
Hanebuthet al. (2013) has also given some sinking rates based on the position of 20 kiln
bases in the Sundarbans in relation to winter and spring high-tide levels. Based on the
elevations and ages (found by optically simulated luminescence dating), the 300-y average
rate of sinking of the outer delta is 5.261.2 mm/y, which includes 0.8 mm/y of eustatic sea
level rise (ESLR).
Sarker et al. (2012) showed that the long-term subsidence rate in the tidal plain of the Bengal
Delta has not exceeded 1 to 2.5 mm/y, based on measurements of plinth levels of a 15th
century mosque at Bagerhat situated in the north of the tidal floodplain, a 400-year-old Hindu
temple in the Sundarbans forest in the south, and a 200-year-old temple 25 km NE of
Khepupara in the SE. If subsidence had occurred at a rate of up to 18 mm/y, as suggested by
Syvitski et al. (2009), those monuments would have been 2.4 to 7.5 m below tidal plain or
forest floor, which did not happened.
Pethick and Orford (2013) showed substantial relative mean sea level (RMSL) ranges from
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2.8 to 8.8 mm/y in SW estuaries in Bangladesh based on three sets of tidal water-level data
analyses in the Passur system, covering the uninhabited Sundarbans Reserve Forest (SRF),
the junction between the SRF and the extensive polder area northwards, and the densely
populated Sundarbans impact zone. They have shown the causes of increasing trends in high
water maxima to result from a combination of deltaic subsidence, including sediment
compaction, and ESLR; they recognised the principal cause of the increasing trend to be
increased tidal range in estuary channels recently constricted by embankments. They found
that the increase in RMSL in the Sundarbans is significantly greater than the increase in mean
sea level. Freshwater discharge into the system is another cause for increase in high water
maxima.
In summary, studies carried out so far recognised that there is deltaic subsidence in the
south511
central and SW part of the country. Sedimentation is compensating for this subsidence
outside the polder area. It can be said that subsidence in the delta area has altered the natural
shape of the delta, especially after the polderisation. There are differences of opinions on the
rate of subsidence, ranging from a few millimetres to a few centimetres per year, which need
to be resolved for long-term planning. To substantiate an acceptable rate of subsidence,
further research is needed on this aspect.

Human Interventions:
Rivers have nurtured civilization throughout human history. The Nile River allowed Egypt,
known as one of the oldest agricultural civilizations and a sedentary agricultural society, to
develop thousands of years ago. The Nile River and its delta have been altered by
anthropogenic intervention that has turned a prograding delta to an eroding coastal plain. The
agricultural-based civilization was initiated based on the fertile lands of delta and tidal plains.
Similarly, to produce more food from floodplains and tidal plains and to make social life safer,
the people of Bangladesh started to intervene in the natural systems in primitive ages. Those
early interventions in the delta could not negatively affect the natural system, because they
were not significant in terms of altering the flow and sediment regime. Over the centuries
people made earthen dykes with their limited efforts to protect their homes and homesteads
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from tide and salinity intrusion. However, during the last century, largescale interventions in
the river systems have been made in the SW region of Bangladesh to improve communication
networks, increase agricultural production, and enhance safety in the coastal environment. In
the first half of the 20th century, during the British regime, several alterations were made
to maintain or improve the navigation in the riverine delta—at that time the main mode of
transporting goods and passengers. The British connected different rivers such as the Gorai-
Madhumati with the Nabaganga at the beginning of the 20th century and excavated canals
such as the Heliflax cut, MBR, Gabkhan Canal, and Mongla-Ghashiakhali Canal. The
Heliflax cut, made in 1910 to shorten the distance from Dhaka to Khulna, connected the
Madhumati River with the Nabaganga River. As a consequence, a significant amount of flow
of the Madhumati River started to be diverted through the Nabaganga River. After excavation
of the 23-km MBR during 1910–12, part of the Arial Khan River flowed into the Madhumati
River. Gabkhan Channel was excavated in 1918 to connect the Shandhya River of the
Pirojpur district and the Sugandha River of the Jhalakati district with a view towards reducing
the navigation distance by around 118 km. Several other modifications to river courses were
made in early 20th century during the British regime. Then the Bangladesh Inland Water
Transport Authority excavated the Mongla-Ghashiakhali Canal, which was opened for
navigation in 1974, to reduce navigation distance. All these connections modified the flow
and sediment in the SW region of Bangladesh. Other additions, such as construction of
railways and highways transversely crossing the flood plain, also restricted free flow of
floods over the terrain.
In the second half of the 20th century, changes in the delta plain and in the catchments
upstream of the delta were enormous. Several flood embankments and polders were
constructed in the floodplain and tidal plains of Bangladesh in the 1960s and 1970s, aiming to
protect flood and grow more food by improving water management, on the basis of the
recommendations from the master plan for what was then the East Pakistan Water and Power
Development Authority (EPWAPDA), prepared by the International Engineering Company
of San Francisco in 1964. Those coastal polders limited the flooding on the tidal plains by
restricting the tide from entering the tidal plain. After construction of the polders under flood
control and irrigation projects, people initially benefited. However, after coastal embankment
projects, especially in the SW region of Bangladesh, the adverse effects were enormous.
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Several tidal channels died within a few years to a few decades, drainage congestion become
severe in many of the embanked polders even as tidal amplification increased flooding of the
intervened tidal plains, and riverbed sedimentation deteriorated the navigability of many
important navigation routes. The tidal amplification could sometimes be disastrous, such as
seen in the effects of the cyclone Aila (2009) in the SW. These are common features in the
Satkhira, Jessore, Khulna, and Bagerhat districts. Different studies found that tidal
amplification and sedimentations in the riverbed occurred because the tidal prism was cut
down by the coastal embankment. The tidal river management concept (creating a tidal basin
for an increasing tidal prism in the tidal channels; EGIS, 1998) has become popular, although
numerous constraints in the implementation process exist. Moreover, the Bangladesh Water
Development Board has recently been working to improve coastal embankment projects,
considering an expected SLR of 0.5 m over the next 50 years and subsidence 12 mm/y.
Other than the internal human-induced changes, intensive agricultural practices, such as
deforestation, and construction of dams and barrages for storing and diverting water in the
catchment of the G-B Rivers, such as Farakka Barrage on the Ganges, occurred beyond the
international border. Those interventions have also contributed to change the flood, sediment,
and dry season flow regimes of Bangladesh. Low flow during dry season causes an increase in
salinity intrusion further upstream. Therefore, manmade changes both within and outside the
country and ongoing natural processes are acting on this delta, along with continuous
adjusting and combating of SLR and changed sediment and flow conditions. Impact of
Climate Change
A few places in the world are vulnerable to the effects and severity of climate change;
amongst them, Bangladesh will likely be one of the most experienced countries. Global
warming, along with RSLR, is expected to cause significant changes in the flood regime.
Moreover, seismic events in the Brahmaputra Basin could change the sediment scenario and its
responses. Any of these single or combined factors in the river catchments would change the
flow and sediment
regime of the river and the estuary. A period of fluvial process and morphological form
adjustments would make the system more dynamic and unpredictable. With higher flow and
sediment, the river and its estuary would be more dynamic, which would result in some net
accretions. If the sediment input is reduced in the system, net erosion will take place.
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Therefore, the expediting rate of climate change is very likely to cause several changes in the
physical processes. Though the process of fluvial adjustment with climate change is not well
understood, it presents complicated and challenging issues have studied fluvial adjustment to
climate changes. Those studies do not address short-term adjustment processes on timescales of
decades to centuries. However, the process of understanding the responses of rivers and
estuaries to climate change is imperative for fixing a strategy for adaptation to climate change—
especially for a country like Bangladesh, where the delta is enormous, the rivers are dynamic,
and the river
adjustment processes play an important role in flooding, inundation, and riverbank erosion.
Increase of temperature in the earth system is the main factor for climate change. Choudhury,
Haque, and Quadir (1997) did not find significant changes in the temperature and rainfall
data from 1960s to 1993 in Bangladesh and concluded that three decades are not sufficient
for determining a longterm trend. However, they mentioned that rainfall might increase with
an increase of temperature, in accordance with the IPCC’s 1990 business-as-usual scenario
(Tegart, Sheldon, and Griffiths, 1990). If the rainfall increases, river discharge will also
increase, though the percentage of predicted discharge varies significantly based on different
model outputs.
Different models with a high range of results are observed from different global climate
change models. Mirza (2002) found, based on model results, that the probability of increase
of flood discharge because of temperature rise is less in the Brahmaputra than that of the
Ganges and Meghna Rivers. Later, developing an empirical model, Mirza (2005) found that
the probable maximum change in precipitation in the Ganges Basin and the Brahmaputra
Basin might be 13% and 10.2%, respectively, for a temperature increase of 28C. These
increases of precipitation in the Ganges Basin and the Brahmaputra Basin would cause
increases in the mean annual discharge by 21.1% and 6.4%, respectively. Afterwards, IWM
(2008) studied the impacts of climate change on monsoon flooding in Bangladesh. It
considered the A1F1 emissions scenario, assuming a 13% increase in precipitation over the
Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna Basins, and found a corresponding 22% increase in the
peak discharge at Hardinge Bridge of the Ganges River.
Recently, Yuet al. (2010) projected the effects of climate change on Bangladesh for three
periods—up to 2030, 2050, and 2080. They projected increases in temperature as 0.750C,
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1.550C, and 2.48C with a median precipitation increase of 1%, 4%, and 6%, respectively.
Accordingly, the monsoon discharge would increase by 2050 (Figure 11), but the monthly
increase rates would be different by 2050 based on five generator condition monitor and two
special report on emissions scenarios model experiments (Yuet al., 2010). Likewise, the rates
would also vary from river to river. The average discharge increment in two monsoon
months,i.e. August and September, would be about 10%, 12%, and 7% in the Brahmaputra,
Ganges, and Meghna, respectively.Increased rainfall and increased SLR, associated with the
effect of climate change, are the
two factors that would induce the flooding in Bangladesh. Intensified monsoon rainfall would
increase the flood discharge in the river system. In addition, SLR would increase the extent of
tidal flooding after its propagation. Both of these climate change–induced factors would
ultimately result in an increase of flooded area and inundation depth. The digital elevation
data of Bangladesh indicates that more than 50% of the area is less than 5 m above mean sea
level. Therefore, a 1-cm SLR would have socioeconomic consequences for the country.
Different studies on inundation 645 have found varying results. A SLR of 1 m would cause
inundation of 17% of the total area of Bangladesh (Choudhury, Haque, and Quadir, 1997). In
the same way, IPCC (2001) predicted about 21% total land inundation because of a SLR of 1
m. Nevertheless, about 11% (4,107 km2) of the coastal zone (about 3% of the total area of
Bangladesh) could be more heavily inundated, at an 88-cm SLR, in 2100 (WARPO, 2005). A
62-cm SLR, along with increased rainfall in the next 100 years, could cause 16% additional
inundation (5500 km2) in the coastal region of Bangladesh (IWM and CEGIS, 2007), based
on a numerical simulation considering no changes in river bathymetry, floodplain, and tidal
plain topography. With the same physical setting, Yu et al. (2010) projected additional
flooding because of SLR and increased discharge in the rivers using numerical modelling.
They mentioned that the flooded area in the Ganges and Jamuna floodplains would increase
at varying rates in different months for different regions. Flooding would increase about 10%
by August 2050 in the Ganges and Jamuna floodplains.
However, a different approach for predicting flooding because of SLR and increase in
precipitation because of climate change was adopted by Brammer (2004). He considered
concurrent rising of estuarine plains with the rising of sea level; therefore, no additional
flooding would be expected in those areas. Similar assumptions were also made for the
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natural levees along the tidal and estuarine rivers. Therefore, the inland flood basins in the
south-central region, where sediment can barely reach, would be the most vulnerable for
flooding. Brammer (2004) indicated the flood-vulnerable areas qualitatively based on
agroecological regions. He also indicated that after the next 50 years, it is likely that flooding
will increase in the Middle Meghna floodplain, middle section of the Low Ganges River
floodplain, Old Meghna estuarine floodplain, and low-lying Sylhet Basin because of impeded
drainage.
As sea level continues to rise, the associated effects of permanent inundation are likely to
increase salinity near coastal areas. WARPO (2005) showed that a 5-ppt saline front would
penetrate about 40 km inland for a SLR of 88 cm, which would affect the only freshwater
pocket of the Tentulia River in the Meghna estuary. A big chunk of the freshwater zone
would disappear because of SLR near the estuary. Salinity intrusion would have a
comprehensive effect on the country’s ecology and lead some of its endangered species into
extinction.
Moreover, increased salinity intrusion because of SLR would pose a great threat to the
Sundarbans. The Sundarbans have already been affected by reduced freshwater flow from the
Ganges River through the Gorai River after construction of the Farakka Barrage in 1970s
upstream to divert water to the Calcutta Port in India. Presently, no flow is coming through
the Gorai River, particularly during the dry season. So, salinity front is already landwards.
Further SLR would lead to a definite inward intrusion of the salinity front, causing different
species of plants and animals to be adversely affected. Increased saltwater intrusion is
considered one of the causes of top-dying of Sundari trees. A SLR of 32 cm would cause
intrusion of 10 to 20 ppt more salinity into the Sundarbans. The rate of saltwater intrusion
would also affect the ability of the ecosystem to adapt. IWM and CEGIS (2007) has predicted
that the present brackish water area (about 21,520 km2) would increase to 24,410 and 25,790
km2 at 27- and 62-cm SLR, respectively.
CEGIS (2010) also carried out research to assess the impact of climate on the morphological
process of the main rivers and the Meghna estuary. They identified that with the changes in
sea level, the rivers would adjust their bed and bank levels with a certain time lag, which
mainly depends on their proximity to the sea. The tidal plains in the Meghna estuary would
respond quickly because of its propinquity to the sea, if it were not empoldered. Moreover,
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impacts of climate change are presently assessed considering a fixed river system, while the
river system is continuously adjusting with the changing of different parameters, such as base
level, flood discharge, and sediment input from upstream. The estuary, tidal plains, and
floodplains, along with the river system, would adjust themselves with the increased flood
discharge and subsequent SLR. Thus, whatever the impacts of climate changes have been
assessed so far, they might differ to different extents if the system is considered while taking
into account dynamically adjusting processes with the changed situation. This dynamic
approach needs to be considered for representing the dynamic delta.

Bangladesh Delta Opportunities:

Highly Fertile Land:
Agricultural land: 65%
Forest lands: 17%
Urban areas: 8%
Water and wetlands: 10%.

Percentage of Highly Fertilie Land

10% Agriculture Land

8% Forest Land
Urban areas
Water & wetlands
17%
65%

Plentiful rivers (more than 700 nos.)

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Water bodies about 4.70 million.

Open access to sea is a huge advantage

It could serve the need so growing internal trade and commerce.

Could become a regional hub for international sea transportation.

Dynamic Inland Water Transport (around 6000 km)

Almost all districts are connected with each other.

The Industrial/Growth centers nearby rivers.

The Sundarbans
The largest natural mangrove forest

Unique ecosystem covers an area of 577,000 ha of which 175,400 ha is under

water

 Unique ecological settings.

Unique ecological settings

Thereare2Ramsarsites,14(13+1)EcologicalCriticallyAreas(ECAs),17NationalP
arks,28WildlifeSanctuaries,8Eco-parksand2BotanicalGardens.

Important five ECAs are

Hakaluki Haor (18,382 ha)

Tanguar Haor (9727 ha)

Sonadia Island (4,916 ha)

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St Martin’s Island (590 ha)

Teknaf Peninsula (10,465 ha)

Over 800species of wildlife identified in ECAs.

Important Five ECAs

18382

10465
9727

4916

590
hakaluki Haor Tanguar Haor Sonadia Island St Martin's Island Teknaf Peninsula

Series 3

Bangladesh Delta Challenges:

According to IPCC-AR 5 and other studies:

Rising Temperatures (1.4-1.90C increase by 2050, if extreme then 20C plus)

Rainfall Variability (overall increase by 2030, but may decrease in Eastern

and southern areas)

Increased Flooding (about 70% area is within 1m from Sea Level)

Droughts (mainly Agricultural Drought)

River Erosion (50,000 households on avg. become homeless each year)

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Sea Level Rise (SLR) and consequent Salinity Intrusion (by 2050 SLR may be
up to 0.2-1.0 m; salinity increase by 1ppt in 17.5% & by 5ppt in 24% area)

Cyclones and Storm Surges (Frequency and category will increase along with
higher storm surges)

Water Logging

Sedimentation

Trans-boundary Challenges.

Need for an Integrated Plan (BDP 2100) in WR Management:

Bangladesh government is firmly committed to the implementation of national-

level strategic plans such as the Five-Year Plans and Perspective Plan and also
highly committed to meet the target sunder SDGs. Integration of the sectoral,
national and global targets and plans into long term coherent climate change and
future demands into account is the main challenge.

A planned to contribute directly to the realization of the country’s long term

vision, the “PerspectivePlan2041”

Due to the large uncertain ties with respect to climate change and socio-
economic development, planning is being enriched with adaptive strategy making
(ADM) in several deltas in the world. Rather than providing linear recipes, robust
and flexible strategies and measures have been taken,with strong institutions and a
good knowledge base that allows policy makers and stakeholders to anticipate and
decide on the most appropriate investments.
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Hotspots: Planning and Implementation Units of BDP 2100

Hotspot is defined as “a place of significant activity or danger”. Hotspots are
prototypical areas where similar hydrological and climate change vulnerability
characteristics and problems converge also influenced by natural hazards.
In BDP 2100, Hotspot is a broad grouping of districts and areas facing similar is
evolved by Hydrology, climate change and natural hazards.
Six (6) Hotspot areas have been identified:
1.Coastal Zone (27,738sqkm);
2.Barindand Drought Prone Areas (22,848sqkm);
3.Haorand Flash Flood Areas (16,574sqkm);
4.Chattogram Hill Tracts (13,295sqkm);
5.River Systems and Estuaries (35,204Sqkm); and
6.Urban Areas (19,823sqkm).

The remaining area is identified as “Cross cutting” areas characterized by a

combination of issues and challenges e.g. floods, drought, river bank erosion,
sedimentation, groundwater depletion, water pollution and water supply and
sanitation.
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