Int J Disaster Risk Sci (2020) 11:13–31 www.ijdrs.

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https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-020-00251-4 www.springer.com/13753

ARTICLE

Surrogate Measures to Assess Mobility of People as a Resilience

Indicator in Disaster Management: An Exploratory Study
in Southeastern Sri Lanka
A. M. Aslam Saja1,3 • Melissa Teo1 • Ashantha Goonetilleke1 • Abdul M. Ziyath1 •

K. W. G. Rekha Nianthi2

Published online: 18 February 2020

 The Author(s) 2020

Abstract Understanding social resilience can assist in the and understanding of complex interrelationships of social
formulation of disaster management policies to help com- resilience.
munities better prepare for, respond to, and recover from
disasters. However, direct social resilience measurement Keywords Community resilience
Resilience
methods such as household surveys are not always a characteristics
Resilience indicators
Resilience
practical option as they are a time- and resource-exhaustive measurements
Social resilience
Sri Lanka
process. Existing measures mainly utilize publicly avail-
able census data, which often provide a poor and outdated
assessment of current social resilience status. Another 1 Introduction
limitation includes a failure to capture multiple facets of
indicators that are process-oriented and dynamic in nature The concept of ‘‘resilience’’ has been increasingly dis-
such as mobility of people. These challenges can be cussed in disaster studies, particularly since the adoption of
addressed by employing a surrogate approach. Surrogates the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
are alternative measures to depict the target indicator. The 2015–2030 (UNISDR 2015). The past experiences in
surrogate approach can capture key facets of a target preparing for and responding to disasters have necessitated
indicator, which can be used as potential measures for the a growing and urgent emphasis on the development of
target indicator. A framework to conceptualize the surro- effective methods to measure disaster resilience, so that
gate approach is presented, and operationalized using a timely investments in resilience building can be imple-
case study approach on the southeastern coast of Sri Lanka mented to prevent and mitigate future disaster losses and
to identify surrogates to measure mobility of people as a damages.
resilience indicator. Six higher-order themes were identi- Social resilience is defined as the ability of social enti-
fied as potential surrogates to measure mobility of people ties to effectively prepare for, mitigate, and cope with
in a disaster context. The approach proposed to methodi- disasters, and to recover from past disasters to reduce the
cally identify potential surrogates and their measurement impact of future disaster risks (Bruneau et al. 2003;
protocols can help to improve the current knowledge base Rockström 2003; Kwok et al. 2016; Saja et al. 2018).
Several frameworks have been proposed during the past
two decades to measure social resilience to disasters.
& Melissa Teo However, very few frameworks have been operationalized
[email protected]
due to practical difficulties in measuring the proposed
1
Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of resilience characteristics (Beccari 2016). A critical review
Technology (QUT), Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia of 31 social resilience assessment frameworks by Saja et al.
2
Faculty of Arts, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya 20400, (2019) found that only half of the frameworks have been
Sri Lanka operationalized.
3
Faculty of Engineering, South Eastern University of Sri Gregorowski et al. (2017) highlighted three types of
Lanka, Oluvil 32360, Sri Lanka challenges in operationalizing resilience measurement

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14 Saja et al. Surrogate Measures to Assess Mobility of People as a Resilience Indicator

frameworks: (1) conceptual challenges in translating the disaster situation through available means such as transport
complexity of resilience as a concept to practical mea- facilities (Yamamoto et al. 2018). The potential surrogates
surement; (2) technical challenges in selecting and apply- explored in this study can capture a relatively compre-
ing methods, or in using special measurement tools, such as hensive picture of the target indicator and also offer a
data analysis; and (3) practical or logistical challenges in uniform approach for understanding and identifying sur-
operationalizing a resilience measurement. There is also an rogates. The proposed surrogate conceptualization frame-
increasing state of disconnect, with the practitioner com- work has wide applicability in any context to explore
munity utilizing more qualitative and participatory potential surrogates to assess resilience.
approaches to measure resilience, whereas the research-
and policy-based resilience frameworks have focused on
quantitative measures such as index-based approaches 2 Social Resilience Assessment Frameworks
(Gaillard and Jigyasu 2016). The resilience concept is too and Methods
complex to reduce it to a numeric value, and most of the
resilience measures proposed in the research literature are Many taxonomies of resilience measurements exist that are
limited to indices and quantitative approaches. While many dependent on the way resilience is defined, framed, and
researchers have proposed a set of prospective indicators analyzed. Saja et al. (2019) discussed various approaches
and formulae to measure resilience, there is a lack of used to develop resilience frameworks and methods
methodological approach to guide the identification and applied in resilience measurement. When the existing
measurement of those indicators (Bahadur et al. 2010). A methods of measuring resilience are categorized as ‘‘top-
robust resilience measure should consider many different down’’ and ‘‘bottom-up’’ methods, for example, the key
aspects of an indicator that includes the availability, difference between these two methods is the purpose and
functionality, accessibility, quality, and capacity of the application (Schoch-Spana et al. 2019). Top-down methods
resilience phenomenon being measured. largely depend on quantitative indicators, which are helpful
In this context, the ‘‘surrogate approach’’ can be used to for resilience investment decision making through com-
identify different facets of an indicator and then select the parisons between multiple communities, whereas bottom-
most important facets (potential surrogates) to address up methods are driven by a local perspective on resilience
conceptual challenges by translating the abstract and and the integration of experiential knowledge that are
complex concept into a practically applicable measure. The helpful for the direct local application of results (Cutter and
use of surrogates can help to overcome the challenges and Derakhshan 2019; Schoch-Spana et al. 2019).
limitations in measuring social resilience to disasters Doorn (2017) highlighted that the use of non-aggregated
(Kulig et al. 2013; Ziyath et al. 2013; Cutter 2016; Sharifi indicators can be more useful for contributing to the
2016). Developing and translating surrogate measures to detailed analysis of resilience than aggregated indices—the
real world applications to measure resilience will help in latter are mainly helpful in the evaluation of intervention
effective planning and resource allocation (Lindenmayer effectiveness and in drawing attention to an issue. Resi-
et al. 2015) in disaster management. lience measurements also need to move beyond existing
A surrogate is defined as an indicator that effectively index-based quantifications to produce results that are
represents another indicator that is intended to be measured oriented towards resilient development outcomes and
(Rodrigues and Brooks 2007; Miguntanna et al. 2010). The strategies to enhance resilience at the community level
surrogate approach has been successfully used in biodi- (Peters et al. 2016). New methods are needed for the
versity studies, clinical medicine, and environmental detailed analysis of resilience indicators that can capture
studies (Mellin 2011; Barton et al. 2015; Lindenmayer important facets of key social resilience characteristics
et al. 2015). However, no framework exists in the disaster such as social capital, social mechanisms, and social
management literature to explore potential surrogates to dynamics (Cutter 2016), all of which are multifaceted,
assess social resilience. A rigorous methodical use of the process-oriented, and abstract concepts.
surrogate approach has not been investigated yet in the Resilience frameworks that have been operationalized
disaster context, which makes this study innovative and have used direct methods such as household surveys and
explorative. This article presents a surrogate framework to interviews, and/or data obtained from census reports from
identify important facets of social resilience indicators, and public databases to assess resilience. Table 1 highlights
the operationalization of the framework to assess a sample key differences of these two widely applied methods—
social resilience indicator in southeastern coastal Sri using direct household surveys and using census measures
Lanka—mobility of people in the disaster context. The to assess resilience. The merits in direct household mea-
mobility of people in this article is defined as an aspect of sures are demerits in using census data measures and vice
movement of people individually or collectively in a versa. The direct household resilience measures are often

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Table 1 Comparison of methods to assess social resilience

Resilience measure using household surveys Resilience measure using census data

Data sources Households Census data and statistics

Method of Web/household survey, one-on-one or focus group Census reports and data from public databases
accessing interviews, consultation, self-assessment
data
Merits More realistic at the time of measurement or for a period Minimal use of resources and faster
of time
Data reflects the perception of social resilience in the Easy to develop indices and statistical models
concerned community
Can capture process-based measures and qualitative Reproduced when census is updated
analysis is possible
Demerits Time-consuming, finance- and human resource-intensive Lack of accuracy compared to surveys, data do not capture key
process social dynamics and processes
Replication and regular updates are difficult in resource- Results can be easily reproduced, replicated, and improved only
limited contexts when the new census becomes available
Limited set of easily measurable indicators are chosen Mostly captures outcome measures

time- and resource-intensive, making them not feasible for disasters is also linked to many other factors, such as early
regular updates of resilience status (Ziyath et al. 2013). warning, existing social support systems for transport
This has resulted in a limited set of easily measurable access, and level of awareness of disaster evacuation, all of
indicators that often do not comprehensively assess resi- which are not captured in existing methods, when mea-
lience (Saja et al. 2018). suring mobility of people as a resilience characteristic.
Indirect measures are helpful when it is too complex or The existing census-based proxy measures are not ade-
not feasible to measure the intended indicator directly quate enough to reflect mobility of people in a disaster
(Becker et al. 2015). However, most of the existing social context, because they do not take into account all key
resilience frameworks have used available census data, facets of the phenomenon being measured. In many least-
instead of methodically identifying and selecting key developed countries, census data are mostly outdated,
resilience measures that are required in a particular com- sometimes older than a decade, and do not reflect the recent
munity through a consultative approach with the key or current status of the community. These limitations
stakeholders in disaster management. An analysis by Saja constrain the community and disaster management stake-
et al. (2019) of social resilience frameworks developed holders in making better-informed decisions before disas-
over the last decade, for example, revealed that mobility of ters occur, based on a very recent/current status of a
people is mostly measured through publicly available community’s resilience. In this context, there is a need for a
census data such as vehicle ownership/percentage of new approach to assess social resilience.
households with a vehicle (Mayunga 2007; Cutter et al. This study conceptualized a surrogate approach to assess
2010, 2014; Kusumastuti et al. 2014; Burton 2015; Kotzee a set of selected social resilience indicators as testbeds in a
and Reyers 2016; Qasim et al. 2016), or the existing disaster context. In this article, exploring potential surro-
transportation network and transportation access to the area gates to assess one of the social resilience indicators—
measured using the length of road per square kilometer of mobility of people—is presented as an example. Potential
land (Kusumastuti et al. 2014), or the labor force in surrogates can be explored to measure sets of social resi-
transportation (such as population employed in special lience indicators by consulting key disaster management
needs transportation services) (Peacock et al. 2010). stakeholders as a one-off exercise. Once the final set of
However, when assessing mobility of people, most of the surrogates has been selected, they can be periodically
existing measures fail to provide an explicit focus on updated in consultation with the relevant agencies at the
transport and evacuation center accessibility for people local level to capture any changes, so that resilience can be
with special needs, who are the most vulnerable population robustly measured without repeatedly undertaking
in any disaster context. Mobility of people in times of resource- and time-intensive processes.

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3 Conceptualizing the Surrogate Approach the interview participants establish the relationship
for Assessing Mobility of People in a Disaster between the target indicator and potential surrogates.
Context Substep 2.3 Defining protocols for measuring surro-
gates: The third substep in identifying potential surro-
Figure 1 shows a framework for conceptualizing a surro- gates involves establishing the protocol to guide the
gate approach to assess social resilience in disaster man- measurement to be undertaken. This is based on the
agement that has been adapted from Lindenmayer et al. consideration of three factors: (1) Type of measurement;
(2015) and Birkmann (2006). Two key steps are proposed whether qualitative, quantitative, or mixed; (2) How to
to guide the logical and systematic identification of surro- access accurate data, either through primary data
gates: (1) decision on surrogate approach; and (2) identi- collection using sampling or secondary data, or a
fication of potential surrogates. The decision for a surrogate combination of direct measurement through sampling
approach was made because existing methods to assess and secondary data; and (3) Access to reliable sources
mobility of people as a resilience characteristic do not for surrogate data and how to transform surrogates to
capture key facets of mobility of people in a disaster measure the target indicator.
context. This study focused on the identification of key
facets of mobility of people that can be used as potential
surrogates.
4 Case Study Research
Identification of potential surrogates requires three
substeps (Fig. 1): (2.1) Exploring all potential surrogates
A qualitative case study method was adopted for this
(answers the ‘‘what’’ question); (2.2) Establishing the sur-
research, because it can help to answer the ‘‘how’’ question
rogacy relationship with the target indicators (answers the
to study the complex relationships that underpin social
‘‘why’’ question); and (2.3) Defining protocols for mea-
resilience as a dynamic social phenomenon (Marshall and
suring surrogates (answers the ‘‘how’’ question). The sub-
Rossman 2014). The case study research method allowed
steps are explained below.
the exploration of potential surrogates to assess social
Substep 2.1 Exploring all potential surrogates: There are resilience indicators because it enables delving in-depth
three key considerations when exploring all potential into the complexities and processes of how surrogates are
surrogates: (1) Select a context. A context needs to be perceived, understood, and identified, as well as their
established by: (a) selecting a site (geographical limita- potential use in a disaster context (Marshall and Rossman
tion), which could be broadly categorized as urban or 2014). The use of the surrogate approach is untested in the
rural; and (b) specifying a hazard type or multi-hazard disaster context, which makes this research exploratory in
scenario, since resilience measures can vary with nature (Boeije 2009). In exploratory research, the consul-
different geography or hazard; (2) Select disaster tation of experts who have direct involvement in commu-
management experts. Experts who are local policymak- nity-based disaster management work is important, because
ers and practitioners working in disaster risk reduction they can provide practical insights to the problem being
and have experience working at the community level investigated.
should be selected for exploring potential surrogates; Based on Creswell (2011), four key aspects of qualita-
and (3) Consultation with experts to collect data to tive exploratory research were adopted for selecting the
explore potential surrogates. study locations and participants: (1) Setting for the research
Substep 2.2 Establishing the surrogacy relationship: (case study location); (2) Events—on what the participants
This relationship is defined as the extent to which a are interviewed; (3) Actors—interview participants; and
particular set of features (surrogates) effectively repre- (4) Processes—how the actors are interviewed within the
sents a defined set of features of the target indicators research setting (individual and group).
(Rodrigues and Brooks 2007). The quality and effec-
tiveness of surrogates depend on the strength of the 4.1 Setting for the Research (Case Study Locations)
surrogacy relationship between the target and surrogate
indicators (Grayson et al. 1996). The relationship of a The overall case study region was the southeastern coast of
potential surrogate with the target indicator is dependent Sri Lanka and four case studies were investigated during
on: (1) The nature of the relationship; whether a September–November 2017. There are three key principles
surrogate is connected to the target indicator or for a data collection strategy in case study research: use of
connected to other surrogates; (2) The strength of the multiple sources of evidence; maintaining a chain of evi-
relationship; and (3) How the changes in the surrogacy dence; and creating a case study database (Yin 2013). The
relationship impact the target indicator. In this substep, selection of the four case studies guided the triangulation of

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Fig. 1 Framework for conceptualizing the surrogate approach for assessing social resilience. Source Adapted from Lindenmayer et al. (2015) and Birkmann (2006)
17

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18 Saja et al. Surrogate Measures to Assess Mobility of People as a Resilience Indicator

Fig. 2 a Case study area in Sri

Lanka and the divisional case
study locations. b Central/
devolved governance entities in
Sri Lanka and their hierarchical
linkages

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the analysis using multiple cases that reduced biases (Yin guide with questions was used to facilitate the interview
2013) and avoided dominant views among the specific process and to allow for more probing questions based on
study group. the responses. The interview guide included a question
The global climate risk index 2019 ranks Sri Lanka structure based on the three substeps in the framework to
second among the most climatic disaster-affected countries identify potential surrogates as shown in Fig. 1.
in the world (Eckstein 2018). Due to rapid urbanization
around the world, urban communities are highly exposed to 4.3 Study Actors (Interview Participants)
multiple hazards due to a range of factors (Konrad 2003).
The three selected case studies at the lower administrative Purposive sampling: The knowledge and expertise of dis-
divisional levels are located within Kalmunai Municipality aster management practitioners and policymakers are
(urban area) in Ampara District in the Eastern Province important in measuring resilience. Purposeful sampling
(Fig. 2a). They were chosen because they are extremely was utilized, and the interviewees were practitioners and
vulnerable and frequently exposed to multiple hazards such policymakers at the local level who had a minimum of
as flooding, tsunami, and cyclone (Zubair et al. 2006). The 3 years of experience in disaster management work
three case study locations are: Kalmunai T (Case study 1, (Creswell 2011). Experts with wide-ranging experience
denoted as KMT), Sainthamaruthu (Case study 2, denoted such as working either at the community level or at the
as SM), and Kalmunai M (Case study 3, denoted as KMM) subnational policy level and from the government or non-
(Fig. 2a). governmental organizations were sampled, since the rich-
In addition to the three case study locations at the lower ness of the response data can be increased by including
urban administrative levels, a fourth case study focused on diverse stakeholders (Flick 2014).
the subnational level (includes district and province). This Sample selection for interviews: The list of members in
is the next level of governance structure below the national divisional and district disaster management committees
government in Sri Lanka (Fig. 2b). The district level comes was obtained from the relevant divisional and district
under the central government administrative structure, and government offices. Table 2a, b summarize the participant
the provincial level is from the devolved local governance profiles such as their positions and affiliations. The sample
structure in Sri Lanka, and both have roles in disaster selection also ensured the inclusion of interview partici-
management at the subnational level. Figure 2b shows the pants from different functionalities/departments involved
relationship of the case study locations to the lower, sub- in disaster-related activities, such as social services/pro-
national, and national levels in the central administrative tection schemes, disaster relief, village administration, and
structure (in Purple boxes). It also shows the parallel planning services of a divisional administrative area.
devolved local governance structure at the local authority Number of samples: 50 interviews were conducted
and provincial levels (in Yellow boxes). The addition of a across the four case studies. A minimum of 10 participants
fourth case study at the subnational level provided deeper were targeted in each of the case study locations. However,
insights from the experts working at the higher level of through snow-ball sampling, 10 additional participants
decision making to the overall case study analyses and were identified as knowledgeable and had vast experience
identified areas for extensive analysis and comparison with in implementing disaster resilience building projects in the
the other three case studies at the lower levels. case study locations. In order to strengthen the data, they
were also included in the final sample selection (Marshall
4.2 Events (On What the Participants Were and Rossman 2014). Table 2c shows the breakdown of
Interviewed) interview participants per case study.

As the quality of the information is important in case study- 4.4 Interview Process (Groups and Individuals)
based research, interviewing disaster management profes-
sionals directly is best suited. Semistructured interviews A combination of group and individual interviews were
with open-ended questions were used since these were conducted. Study participants were invited for individual
flexible and likely to yield more new ideas than structured interviews when it was difficult to get them into one
survey-type interviews or less structured interviews (Axinn location to conduct a group interview or when the partic-
and Pearce 2006). It is possible to acquire high-quality ipant was identified as the person with the most informa-
information in qualitative exploratory research (Johnson tion, who can share a wealth of information if interviewed
and Rowlands 2012) through semistructured interviews individually. Interviews were conducted at a location of the
because they allow delving into the details of surrogates in experts’ choice, which was primarily in their offices.
a structured way to understand how these are linked to the Individual interviews followed the same process and
target indicator and how it can be measured. An interview

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Table 2 Interview participant profiles: (a) designation/position, (b) affiliation, (c) breakdown of interview participants per case study in Sri
Lanka
(a) Interview participants’ designation (n = 50) Number of participants % of participants

Project director 18 36%

Project manager 5 10%
Project officer 2 4%
President/executive director 3 6%
Project consultant 5 10%
Village administrator 12 24%
Social service officer 2 4%
Divisional disaster relief officer 3 6%

(b) Participants’ affiliation (n = 50) Number of participants % of participants

Central Government 28 56%

Local Government 2 4%
Nongovernmental Organization (Local) 11 22%
Nongovernmental Organization (International) 7 14%
Multilateral agencies such as the United Nations 2 4%

(c) Interview participants in the case studies (n = 50)

Case study # and name One-on-one interview Group interview

Case Study #1 7 1 (3 participants)

Kalmunai T (KMT)
Case Study #2 6 1 (4 participants)
Sainthamaruthu (SM)
Case Study #3 6 1 (4 participants)
Kalmunai M (KMM)
Case Study #4 20 N/A
Ampara District/Eastern Province
Total 39 3 (11 participants)

semistructured questionnaire structure as the group confidence in a group setting from the responses of other
interviews. participants, compared to one-on-one interviews (Axinn
A total of three group interviews and 39 one-on-one and Pearce 2006). Group interviews become efficient when
interviews were conducted. Each one-on-one interview group members are able to stimulate discussion, and can be
lasted approximately for 30 to 45 min and the group an effective process to interact with multiple interviewees
interviews took between 45 and 60 min. Group interviews within a limited time frame (Frey and Fontana 1991). In
were longer to give each group member a chance to this research, De Ruyter’s (1996, p. 48) definition of group
respond to the questions asked. The interview procedure interviews—‘‘a group interview technique which limits
was as follows: questions were posed to the interviewees respondent interaction to a minimum while attempting to
and the interviewer followed up with additional questions maximize the input of individual group members’’—was
as needed (De Leeuw 2008). All interviews were audio- adopted. The level of interaction between participants is
recorded and conducted in the Tamil language, which is the minimal in group interviews, compared to focus group
local language spoken in the case study locations, and discussions. The interviewer serves as a moderator to
because not all participants were fluent in English. encourage each participant to offer new ideas (Axinn and
Group interviews: The group interview technique was Pearce 2006). A group setting encourages participants to
used with selected government officers who work in the circulate diverse ideas influenced by other group members
same office (divisional secretariat) or geographical area. It (Patton 1990). The drawback in group interviews, such as
was considered that some participants may gain more domination by some members in the group, was overcome

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but also identifies a broad range of concepts, thereby

increasing the consistency and reproducibility that helps
analysts to derive greater insights (Penn-Edwards 2010;
Angus et al. 2013).
The output of the Leximancer analysis is a map that
depicts a series of concepts and themes. Concepts in
Leximancer are collections of recurrently occurring words
that travel together throughout a text document, and a
concept map is generated using the frequency of co-oc-
currences of concepts (Leximancer 2017). A set of con-
cepts that formed a theme was identified from lexi concept
maps in a systematic fashion across the entire data set of
each case study. The original Leximancer concept/theme
Fig. 3 Levels of interpretation in thematic analysis. Source Adapted
map view as it was generated from the transcript data is
from Cruzes et al. (2015)
provided for each case study (Sects. 5.1–5.4). The relevant
themes were then interpreted by the researcher using the
by providing every member of the group an opportunity to analyst synopsis window for each theme shown in Lexi-
answer every question. In total, 11 government officers mancer. The analyst synopsis in Leximancer provides the
(three to four people in each group) participated in group relevant sentences from the transcript data. The themes are
interviews conducted in the three divisional case study heat-mapped, meaning that hot colors (such as red, orange)
locations. The group interviewees were mostly mid-level denote the most important themes, and cool colors (such as
officers such as village administrators, social service offi- blue, green) denote those less important (Leximancer
cers, and divisional disaster relief officers from the central 2017).
government. The concepts were translated into meaningful themes
Individual interviews (one-on-one/in-person): In order and a set of correlated themes were then combined to
to reach a wide range of geographically and institutionally create a higher-order theme. Each higher-order theme was
diverse interview respondents, 39 one-on-one interviews interpreted in terms of potential surrogates that are relevant
were conducted across the four case studies. During indi- to the target indicator of measure. The process of thematic
vidual interviews, each respondent had more time to synthesis of case study data is shown in Fig. 3 (Cruzes
explore potential surrogates for the target indicator, com- et al. 2015). The levels of interpretation to develop surro-
pared to the group interviews. Most of the individual gates followed a path of abstraction from text to higher-
interview participants, who were very experienced and order themes through interpretation of the concepts and
knowledgeable in disaster management, provided practical themes generated in the Leximancer analysis as shown in
examples from their own experience, compared to the Fig. 3.
group interview participants. The interview transcripts for each case study were col-
lated into a single document for individual analysis.
4.5 Data Analysis Among many case study analysis techniques, pattern
(concepts and themes) matching, explanation building, and
The interview audio recordings were transcribed, and then cross-case synthesis were used to analyze interview data
professionally translated from Tamil to English. The (Yin 2013). The concepts/themes map using Leximancer
translated interview transcripts for each case study were was generated for each case study. From these maps, a
analyzed using the Leximancer data mining tool. Lexi- thematic analysis was carried out by combining the most
mancer software1 is a computer-based lexical analysis data closely related themes for each case study independently to
mining tool, used for content analysis of qualitative data, identify a set of meaningful higher-order themes. A higher-
which can produce thematic strings. Leximancer was used order theme was considered a potential surrogate for each
because it provides an automated data analysis based on case study area. Each of the higher-order themes built from
lexical text properties and is efficient in handling large sets the distinct case study analysis was explained with inter-
of qualitative data without bias (Sotiriadou et al. 2014). view transcript data.
Leximancer is not only more effective than manual coding, The interview transcript analysis in Leximancer gener-
ated 83 concepts and 41 themes in total across all four case
studies. Section 5.1 shows Leximancer concepts/theme
maps that were generated from each set of case study data.
1
https://info.leximancer.com. Each map includes: concepts (shown as nodes and in

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smaller font size), themes (circle around a most prominent 5 Analysis and Discussion: Exploring Potential
single concept/set of concepts and in bigger font size), and Surrogates and Surrogacy Relationship
higher-order themes (more relevant single theme/combined from Case Study Analysis
themes shown within box drawn). For each case study,
connected concepts were analyzed with interview tran- First, the thematic analysis conducted independently for
scripts to determine an appropriate theme. In the next stage, each case study is discussed in this section. A most relevant
interconnected relevant themes were combined to create a quote selected from interview respondents for the respec-
higher-order theme. tive theme in each case study is provided to describe the
relationship between the surrogate and target indicator.
4.6 Cross-Case Synthesis and Theory Development Final surrogates identified through cross-case synthesis are
then presented at the end of the section.
In order to build a new body of knowledge, a synthesis of
multiple cases was necessary. Figure 4, adapted from Yin 5.1 Case Study #1: Kalmunai T Division (KMT)
(2013, p. 60), shows the analysis structure of multiple case
studies using cross-case synthesis to develop surrogates From the thematic analysis of case study #1, 12 themes
based on higher-order themes generated from different case were generated and four combined themes (higher-order
analyses. Unique themes from different case analyses were themes) were identified (Fig. 5) based on connected con-
cross-tabulated to identify commonly occurring higher- cept nodes in Leximancer concept maps. They included:
order themes across all case studies. Explanation building
(1) Awareness programs and early warning drills: Many
in multiple case studies was carried out to interpret
interview respondents highlighted that people who
potential surrogates using surrogacy relationship and pro-
have a higher level of awareness attend evacuation
tocols for measuring surrogates.
drills annually. For example, Respondent #23 said
Six unique higher-order themes were identified as
that:
potential surrogates from cross-case synthesis. Surrogacy
relationship and surrogate measurement protocols for each Government and organizations have done many
of the surrogates were explored from the themes and awareness programs, many instructions and guides
concepts, which are discussed in Sect. 5.2. about evacuation and evacuation routes are displayed
in streets, and safety evacuation and shelter centers

Fig. 4 Case study procedure from design to results in southeastern Sri Lanka (KMT = Kalmunai T; SM = Sainthamaruthu; KMM = Kalmunai
M). Source Adapted from Yin (2013, p. 60)

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Fig. 5 Original Leximancer concept/theme map view from interview smaller font size), themes (more relevant single theme/circle around
data of case study location #1, Kalmunai T Division (KMT). set of concepts and in bigger font size), and higher-order themes
DS = Divisional Secretariate. Concepts (shown as nodes and in (combined themes shown within box)

are demarcated and people are made aware and given (3) Evacuation places: This is a stand-alone theme that
training, people can now effectively evacuate from emerged in this case study. Respondent #4 high-
their places. lighted that:
With the participation of the people, we have devel-
(2) Social support through disaster management commit-
oped evacuation plans and maps to identify safer
tees: This theme mainly refers to the support from the
places.
disaster management committees for people to access
transport facilities and other mobility assistance
(4) Transport for people with special needs: Vehicles
during disaster evacuations in the flood affected
targeting people with special needs are two interre-
Divisional Secretariat (DS) divisions. According to
lated themes in this case study, as emphasized by
Respondent #27:
Respondent #34:
From the disaster committees there are arrangements
Disaster management committees in each division
to get access to vehicles. For sick people or emer-
can organize some transport facilities for people with
gency cases, accidents, or disasters, we can access
special needs such as elders, children, and the dis-
vehicles from hospitals and police. Since there is a
abled based on the transport services and facilities
hospital and military forces within our division, we
available within the area. We cannot provide trans-
can get vehicles and there are officers from these
port facilities for all people and we have to give
government departments who are also disaster com-
priority.
mittee members.

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24 Saja et al. Surrogate Measures to Assess Mobility of People as a Resilience Indicator

Fig. 6 Original Leximancer concept/theme map view from interview smaller font size), themes (circle around set of concepts and in bigger
data of case study location #2, Sainthamaruthu Division (SM). font size), and higher-order themes (more relevant single theme/com-
DS = Divisional Secretariate. Concepts (shown as nodes and in bined themes shown within box)

5.2 Case Study #2: Sainthamaruthu Division (SM) evacuate. This was done using pictures and they were
also given instructions.
Ten distinct themes were generated from case study #2. By (2) Evacuation places with facilities for people with
combining closely related themes, four higher-order special needs: This theme emphasized the importance
themes were identified (Fig. 6). The higher-order themes of evacuation places with facilities for people with
included: special needs. According to Respondent #12:
(1) Awareness and early warning: Similar to theme (1) in We have an evacuation center now in our division. It
case study #1, this theme was also generated in this is now being constructed with facilities for special
case study. Respondent #6 highlighted that: needs… In the past we used schools and mosques as
evacuation centers. But now we can use this new
Evacuation routes and maps have been displayed in
evacuation center built for the purpose of accom-
many villages. This awareness has been raised
modating people when disasters occur.
through programs as to how to evacuate and where to

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Int J Disaster Risk Sci 25

Fig. 7 Original Leximancer concept/theme map view from interview set of concepts and in bigger font size), and higher-order themes
data of case study location #3, Kalmunai M Division (KMM). (more relevant single theme/combined themes shown within box)
DS = Divisional Secretariate; GN = Grama Niladhari division. Con-
cepts (shown as nodes and in smaller font size), themes (circle around

(3) Transport facilities and vehicle owners: Vehicle 5.3 Case Study #3: Kalmunai M Division (KMM)
ownership and owner willingness to support during
disasters emerged as interrelated themes in this case Leximancer analysis generated 10 themes for case study #3
study. Respondent #6 emphasized that: and four combined themes were found useful as surrogates
(Fig. 7). The four higher-order themes found in case study
Van and bus owners are there in my area, a bus owner
#3 include:
with five buses has given his buses for evacuation
services free of charge. A voluntary contribution. (1) Vehicles available in the community: This theme
Similarly, tractor owners also have done the same. If highlights the existing vehicle capacity in the division
we can get the details of vehicle owners within the that can be utilized during disaster evacuation.
community, that will help to mobilize help in trans- According to the opinion of Respondent #9:
port during disasters.
We should check whether there is a local level
mapping for availability of vehicles and resources at
(4) Narrow roads: The theme of community infrastruc-
the community level. Where the vehicles are avail-
ture that is important for mobility of people, such as
able and how many are available in each village. We
road networks and bridges connecting roads emerged
have to check if the available vehicles have the
in this case study. Respondent #15 highlighted this:
ability to evacuate people with special needs.
There are problems to use vehicles in massive scale
due to narrow roads… For example, if a person has a (2) Evacuation roads: This theme is related to evacuation
van, when they evacuate they will take some more routes and planning. Respondent #25 explained that:
people with them. For cars and motorbikes, they have
We have to first talk about roads for effective evac-
to evacuate alone. Many roads are narrow, and our
uation. When people evacuate, if there are any
bridges are very narrow, so that is not enough in a
problems from the private lands that create problems
large evacuation.

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26 Saja et al. Surrogate Measures to Assess Mobility of People as a Resilience Indicator

Fig. 8 Original Leximancer concept/theme map view from interview smaller font size), themes (circle around set of concepts and in bigger
data of case study location #4, Ampara District/Eastern Province font size), and higher-order themes (more relevant single theme/com-
(Subnational Level), Sri Lanka. Concepts (shown as nodes and in bined themes shown within box)

to roads, we provide compensation to those private (4) Early warning: Early warning was emphasized by
owners and get the land for roads to make the road many interview participants in case study #3 as an
network effective and smooth during disasters. important facet in determining mobility of people and
access to transport. Respondent #32 said that:
(3) Evacuation to mosques and schools: These themes are
Early warning towers are built and equipment for
related to using public buildings such as places of
early warning signs is given. The towers are regularly
worship and schools in times of disasters. According
tested and rehearsal programs are being held fre-
to Respondent #29:
quently. People are trained and awareness raising
… People went to mosques and schools when there programs are also held. Evacuation boards are dis-
was a flood. The household heads stayed back and played as to how people should be evacuated.
removed belongings and safeguarded their belong-
ings from floodwater. People with special needs were
taken by the family members to mosques and schools.

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Int J Disaster Risk Sci 27

Table 3 Surrogates (higher-order themes) mapping against individual case studies

Case study locations/area Surrogates to measure mobility of people (higher-order themes)
(The names of surrogates S1 to S6 are provided below the table)
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6

Case study 1 X X X X
Kalmunai T (KMT)
Case study 2 X X X X
Sainthamaruthu (SM)
Case study 3 X X X X
Kalmunai M (KMM)
Case study 4 X X X X
Ampara District
Eastern Province (subnational level)
S1: Available transport facilities (targeting people with special needs)
S2: Evacuation places and centers (including facilities for people with special needs)
S3: Awareness programs/plans and early warning systems
S4: Evacuation routes and plans
S5: Social support systems (including from disaster management committees and government)
S6: Emergency information dissemination and sources (including emergency telephone numbers of transport facilities)

5.4 Case Study #4: Ampara District/Eastern key people in the early warning group at the division
Province (Subnational Level) level.

For case study #4, nine themes were generated and four (3) Availability and access to transport facilities: One of
combined higher-order themes were found useful as sur- the key factors to understanding mobility of people is
rogates (Fig. 8). These included: to know the availability and access to transport
facilities in times of disasters. Respondent #5 high-
(1) Evacuation places in the area: This theme highlights
lighted this:
the importance of designated safe areas as part of a
disaster preparedness plan to increase the resilience of We do resource mapping for a village. We also col-
communities. Respondent #17 emphasized: lect information such as how many vehicles and
where they are in the households, how many tractors,
People go to nearby common places like a temple,
how many carts are available and where they are
school, community hall, and temporary center. There
when we do village development plans, and include
are places that are identified by the Disaster Man-
this information in emergency preparedness plans.
agement Center and village disaster management
committees (VDMC) for people to evacuate in times
(4) Emergency information sources: Access to informa-
of disasters.
tion is key to improving the mobility and access to
required transport facilities during disaster warnings.
(2) Early warning systems and plans: The theme on
According to Respondent #13:
available early warning mechanisms and proper
execution plans when there is a disaster emerged in Nowadays the information system is dependent on
case study #4, which was pointed out by many mobile phones… Disaster Management Committee
interview respondents. Respondent #5 stated that: will have information on how to access transport or
bus. Disaster Management Center has some infor-
Early warning group members’ details should be
mation district-wise and people can call DMC and
available at the DS (Divisional Secretariate) and
ask them for help to access transport.
village level which is an important indicator. The
availability of contact directory of early warning
group in GN (Grama Niladhari division) divisions
and being given identity cards is another indicator.
There is also a software system with contact details of

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28 Saja et al. Surrogate Measures to Assess Mobility of People as a Resilience Indicator

5.5 Final Surrogates Identified through Cross-Case existence of early warning mechanisms such as towers,
Synthesis sirens, and public address systems in places of worship and
schools; annual disaster evacuation drills (ratio of people
Table 3 summarizes the mapping of higher-order themes who participated to the population at risk, number of
(taken as surrogates) that emerged from the thematic people evacuated carrying belongings); number of training
analysis of the interview data of the four case studies. and awareness programs related to evacuation conducted
For each of the potential surrogates, a brief description annually in places of worship and schools; and participa-
and assessment protocols from the synthesis of the inter- tion trends in training and awareness programs conducted
view responses are summarized below. related to evacuation.
Available transport facilities (targeting people with Evacuation routes and plans (S4): This surrogate was
special needs) (S1): This surrogate was highlighted in all highlighted in case studies #2 and #3. The existence of
four case studies. Access to a transport facilities should be evacuation routes and plans help a community to be resi-
planned to deal with future disasters effectively. Timely lient when disasters occur, so that the community can
access to a required transport facility is necessary for respond to the event effectively. The evacuation plan is
effective evacuation and mobility during and after disas- often part of the bigger disaster management plan and
ters. The availability of transport facilities or timely access identifies the requirement for transport facilities for evac-
to transport facilities for people with special needs (PwSN) uating people in the event of a disaster. The understanding
was highlighted by many interview participants in the case of evacuation access routes and multiple evacuation access
studies. The measurement of the surrogate (S1) should points will contribute to greater mobility of the community
include the assessment and mapping of the ratio of vehicle as a whole, as highlighted by many interview participants
ownership to population, availability of vehicles to across the four case studies. The surrogate (S4) can be
‘‘transport PwSN’’ to the ‘‘PwSN’’ ratio, and the ratio of measured by mapping the key access roads including
vehicles available with government institutions and private multiple access points that are connecting to major high-
owners that can be used during disasters. ways, and assessing the road conditions, road infrastruc-
Evacuation places and centers (including facilities for ture, and evacuation signage with instructions. Village or
people with special needs) (S2): This surrogate was high- street disaster management committees and existence of
lighted in all four case studies. The existence of demar- evacuation plans available with these committees can also
cated evacuation places or purpose-built disaster be assessed.
evacuation centers can help the population at risk to exe- Social support systems (including from disaster man-
cute a planned evacuation during disasters. The level of agement committees and government) (S5): The social
awareness among the people about the facilities at the support system (support through disaster management
evacuation centers will influence the mobility of people committees and government officials) was selected as the
with special needs who are the least resilient segment of the fifth surrogate from case study #1. The support for
population. The surrogate (S2) measurement protocol can accessing transport and assisting in evacuation after a
include: assessing and mapping of evacuation places disaster warning from the neighboring community and
available (places of worship/schools/public buildings/des- other support systems such as police and security forces is
ignated buildings) and their capacity, ratio of evacuation another important factor for greater mobility. The support
places to how many are equipped to handle people with for accessing transport and assisting in the mobility of
special needs, and the ratio between the total capacity of people to evacuate from emerging disasters may also come
evacuation places and the population at risk. from within the community. People who are not at risk
Awareness programs/plans and early warning system from the emerging disaster, such as people living in less
(S3): This surrogate was also highlighted in all four case vulnerable areas within the same community, may come
studies. People at-risk should be made aware about the forward to assist people who are living in highly vulnerable
mobility of and accessibility to transport facilities when areas. The surrogate (S5) can be measured by assessing the
required during a disaster warning or response. Awareness resource maps available in the village-based disaster
programs can influence the way people evacuate and the management plans, the existence of annually elected vil-
resilience of the community to disasters by planning for lage level disaster management committees, and the
effective evacuation during disasters. The dissemination of activities of disaster management committees, helping to
early warning messages at the right time to the population increase the mobility of people for disaster evacuation.
at risk can help people to evacuate to safer places. Effective Emergency information dissemination and sources (in-
risk communication will result in greater mobility and cluding emergency telephone numbers of transport facili-
allow people to prepare for timely evacuation. The surro- ties) (S6): Emergency information sources were selected as
gate (S3) can be measured by mapping and assessing the the sixth surrogate to measure access to a transport facility

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Int J Disaster Risk Sci 29

from case study #4. The dissemination of information to applicability in any context to explore potential surrogates
people at risk is an important factor for timely access to a to assess resilience. It will also assist practitioners to fur-
transport facility for evacuation during a disaster early ther advance social resilience measurement to devise
warning. Access to information such as emergency tele- effective resilience building plans, and make appropriate
phone numbers of the key organizations involved in dis- resilience building resource allocations. The potential sur-
aster response and recovery is needed to access required rogates that emerged in this study can have a broader use in
resources such as emergency transport facilities for evac- similar contexts and in different geographical or hazard
uation. The surrogate (S6) can be measured by sampling scenarios through an appropriate contextualization process.
the area-based social media platforms/websites/groups, and The potential surrogates identified in this study can be
assessing the active disaster information dissemination applied in different contexts to improve the assessment of
services and programs, the number of people who use the mobility of people in disaster management. Future research
internet or other emergency communication devices such also needs to test the surrogate approach to other social
as satellite phones and their usage during the disaster resilience indicators to advance the resilience assessment
warning period, and the usage of area-based emergency knowledge in disaster management.
call number services for disaster information and requests
for emergency transport facilities. Acknowledgements We acknowledge the University Grants Com-
mission of Sri Lanka (UGCSL) and Queensland University of
Technology (QUT), Australia for providing a research scholarship to
the first author for undertaking this study.
6 Conclusion
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons
Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing,
A framework to conceptualize the surrogate approach used adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as
in this research provides a novel method to measure social long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the
resilience indicators. The surrogate conceptualization source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate
framework was operationalized to measure mobility of if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this
article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless
people in times of disasters using a case study on the indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not
southeastern coast of Sri Lanka. The surrogate conceptu- included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended
alization framework includes two key steps: (1) decision use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted
for surrogate approach; and (2) the identification of use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright
holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.
potential surrogates, which can provide a fairly adequate org/licenses/by/4.0/.
measure of a complex and abstract resilience indicator.
The study initially identified 83 concepts and 41 themes
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