ARBA MINCH UNIVERSITY

EVALUATION OF OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY OF URBAN ROAD

NETWORK USING TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY MEASURES

Endalkachew Minsher

A Thesis Submitted to the School of Graduate Studies of Arba Minch University in a

Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in
Road and Transport
 Chapter one

1 Introduction
1.1Background
“Addis Ababa, the capital city of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, is located in the
center of the country. Established in 1886, the city has experienced several planning changes that
have influenced its physical and social growth. As a chartered city (Rasgez Astedader), Addis
Ababa has the status of both a city and a state. It is where the African Union and its predecessor
the OAU are based. Addis Ababa is therefore often referred to as the political capital of Africa,
due to its historical, diplomatic and political significance for the continent. The city is populated
by people from different regions of Ethiopia – the country has as many as 80 nationalities
speaking 80 languages and belonging to a wide variety of religious communities. It is home to
Addis Ababa University. The Federation of African Societies of Chemistry (FASC) and Horn of
Africa Press Institute (HAPI) are also headquartered in Addis Ababa (1).

“Addis Ababa lies at an altitude of 7,546 feet (2,300 metres) and is a grassland biome, located at
9°1′48″N 38°44′24″E9.03°N 38.74°E9.03; 38.74Coordinates: 9°1′48″N 38°44′24″E9.03°N
38.74°E9.03; 38.74. The city lies at the foot of Mount Entoto. From its lowest point, around Bole
International Airport, at 2,326 metres (7,631 ft) above sea level in the southern periphery, the
city rises to over 3,000 metres (9,800 ft) in the Entoto Mountains to the north.” (1).

With rapid economic growth of the city the demand for transportation is very high with in and
out of the city, this transportation demand of the travelling public creates congestion along major
streets of Addis Ababa. Travel time has been a critical measure and important measure used to
evaluate an effectiveness of the road. For this reason, travel time reliability measure is important
to travelers in order for them to plan their trips effectively as well as shippers for them to plan
and select routes appropriately[CITATION Sat13 \l 1033 ].

Traffic congestion tends to maintain equilibrium; traffic volumes increase to the point that
congestion delays discourage additional peak-period trips. If road capacity increases, peak-period
trips also increase until congestion again limits further traffic growth. The additional travel is
called “generated traffic.” Generated traffic consists of diverted traffic (trips shifted in time,
route and destination), and induced vehicle travel (shifts from other modes, longer trips and new
vehicle trips). Research indicates that generated traffic often fills a significant portion of capacity
added to congested urban road ([ CITATION Tod17 \l 1033 ].

The travel time experienced by a traveler making a trip on an arterial segment is not just the
result of his or her own travel choices (destination, mode, route, speed), but also the choices of
many other travelers, not necessarily only those traveling the same segment. Moreover, a
substantial component of driver behavior may not be classified as rational choice behavior, but
rather a product of the different characteristics of individual drivers; for example attention level,
driving style, risk assessment, and there vehicles, such as acceleration and deceleration
capabilities[ CITATION Ken14 \l 1033 ].
These studies assess the performance of the roadway system and observe trends in automobile
travel time, delay, and congestion during peak travel periods for the city. Travel time analysis
can be used to improve the operation, planning, prioritization, and programming of
transportation system improvement projects through following applications: Metropolitan
Transportation Plans (MTPs), Transportation Improvement Programs (TIPs), corridor or area-
wide plans, major investment studies, and congestion management Travel time is modeled as a
function of traffic volume, speed and distance[CITATION Cha17 \l 1033 ]
1.2 Statement of the problem
With rapid economic growth of the Addis Ababa city the demand for transportation is very high
this creates high traffic congestion in Addis Ababa road network. The increasing congestion
levels have influenced travel time reliability, which is significant to all the transportation system
users whether they are vehicle drivers, transit riders, freight shippers, or even air travelers.
Moreover, travel times are so unreliable on Addis Ababa arterial road network. The urban
arterial network is so unreliable commuters could be late for work or after-work appointments,
business travelers could be late for meetings, and truckers could incur extra charges by not
delivering their goods on time.

1.3 Objective
1.3.1 General objective
The general objective of this research to evaluate the performance of road network in Addis
Ababa by using travel time reliability. Develop a model in order to establish relationship
between travel time and influencing parameters and minimizing the travel time in road network
1.3.2 Specific objectives
To evaluate efficacy of urban road network and classify as per Highway Capacity Manual
To develop a model in order to establish relationship between travel time and influencing
parameters
To make recommendations for policy makers to improve performance of road networks based on
the outcome of the study for the concerned bodies
1.4 Research questions
 Which methods have been used to analyze road transport network structure and how can
we evaluate performance road network?
 What is model and how it is developed?
 What are the policy implications of such transport decisions regarding road network?
 Chapter two

2 Literature review
2.1 History of Addis Ababa City Roads Development
Addis Ababa city was founded by Minellik II and Empress Taitu in 1886. The history of the
city‘s road development also begins from the inception of the city. Minellik II constructed the
first ever two roads in the city as well as in the country that stretch from Addis Ababa to Addis
Alem and from his palace to British embassy in 1902. In 1904 the first roller was imported by
the Emperor and was pulled by many people for its operation.
Emperor Minellik was also believed to be the first in importing cars in Addis Ababa and
introduced the car technology in the city for the first time in 1907 E.C. The country’s modern
road construction in general and Addis Ababa in particular is highly interlinked with Emperor
Haile Sellase’s ruling period. During the regime of Haile Sellase a number of contractors were
organized to carry out road construction. (2)
The first agency to be established by the Government to construct roads was the Public Works
Department. It was established to construct roads in Addis Ababa and in its surrounding. After a
few years this Department was raised to a ministerial level and Addis Ababa also got the chance
to establish its road development organizational structure.
When it was decided for Addis Ababa to have a mayor and a council in 1942, the city roads
construction and maintenance was organized under the municipality. To fulfill the road
construction activities together with building works, the “Road and Building Works” Department
was established. This Department stayed till the replacement of the Haile Sellase regime by the
Derge regime performing its duties. But no fundamental organizational change of the department
was observed during the Derg regime. (2)
In 1993 the existing government established regional governments and gave them power to
administer their regions with autonomy. During this time Addis Ababa was also established as
one of regions. The Addis Ababa administration during this period established the “Bureau of
Works and Urban Development” and the bureau organized a department under it to carry out the
road construction and maintenance works. The newly established road department constructed
and maintained the City’s roads till the establishment of the Addis Ababa City Roads Authority
in march 15,1998 by regulation no 7/1998 to be administrated by board of directors to construct,
maintain and administer the road works in Addis Ababa by the city administration. The total
length of roads constructed in the city till the establishment of the authority in March 15, 1998
was 1300km of which 900 km was gravel road and the remaining 400 km was Asphalt surfaced
road. The Addis Ababa City Roads Authority has done remarkable progress in the city roads
expansion and upgrading in the last 11 years since its establishment. (2)
A significant share of the urban growth is taking place in large cities like Addis Ababa.
Especially, the number of conglomerates with more than 5 million inhabitants will grow. Middle
and low income countries show the highest urban population increase, especially in Sub Saharan
Africa (19). Despite some economic benefits, the rapid urban growth in developing countries is
outstripping the capacity of most cities to provide adequate services for their citizens (Cohen,
2004). A high urbanization rate in combination with the intense desire for car ownership in
developing countries causes a rapid growth of motorization (18).On the other hand, a lack of
infrastructure and weak road network maintenance put extra stress on growing traffic flows with
congestion, pollution and a low road safety level as a result (18 & 19).
Improved mobility in urban areas in developing countries is possible by building new
infrastructure. However, this is a long term and expensive solution also transport is a key
requirement for economic and social development to take place. The lack of it causes isolation,
backwardness and poverty. So, this improvement of constructing new roads and urbanization
must be evaluated frequently.
2.2 An overview of Performance Measurement
“In the last two decades, interest has grown in the art and science of performance measurement,
particularly as it applies to road and transportation systems. The topic is well documented in the
literature with significant treatises from many organizations around the world, including the US
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and the Transportation Research Board (TRB), the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Austroads and the
Transportation Association of Canada (TAC). In general, the available research and practice
reports provide perspectives as to why performance measurement is important, how it should be
undertaken, and what is typically measured. The following sections summarize information
extracted from some key references on the theory of performance measurement." (7)
2.2.1 Why Measure Performance?
The ultimate purpose of measuring performance is to improve transportation services for
customers (7). Within that simple statement, two important emphases are contained: one
regarding customers and the second regarding improving services. Both of these emphases
underlie most of the reasons cited in the literature for the increasing importance of performance
measurement to transportation agencies.
In an OECD review of performance indicators for the road sector (OECD, 2000), the authors
observed that in the past, the expectations for public administrations were fairly straightforward.
The dominant objective was to deliver services to the public at minimum cost. However, public
administrations are now expected to meet service level targets at reduced costs and to develop
mechanisms for customer feedback. In general, public administrations now operate in an
environment in which there is a much greater emphasis on customers. Meeting customers’ needs
drives business for public sector as well as private sector agencies. That focus on customers has
made the assessment of agencies’ performance more complex and has been a trigger for the
study and application of objective performance measurement.
Discussing the customer focus during the 2000 Transportation Research Board conference on
performance measures, Pickrell and Neumann (2001) explained that publicly-funded agencies
have come under increasing pressure to be accountable to the public – the owners and customers
of the agencies and the transportation systems they deliver. In fact, the need to be accountable to
the public is the reason most commonly offered in the literature for performance measurement.
There is a growing expectation that the public should be advised on the performance of the
transportation system upon which it depends. As well, there is a need to report how public funds
are used to maintain the system and the effect of expenditures upon it. Performance measurement
is essential to that process. It is interesting to note that the use of performance measurement is
considered useful not only for reporting to the public but also for communicating with the public.
It is seen as a tool that can help to educate the public as well as senior decision makers and
legislators regarding the importance of transportation and the merits of making appropriate
investments in the system (Federal Highway Administration, 2004).
A synthesis of highway practice on performance measurement, conducted for the National
Cooperative Highway Research Program (Poister, 1997), drew attention to strategic planning as
a driving force behind performance measurement. Government agencies are often mandated to
have strategic plans with goals and objectives defined within those plans. Performance
measurement provides important inputs to set priorities and it provides critical information that
helps agencies detect potential problems and make corrections enroot to meeting goals and
objectives. Performance measurement is a fundamental component of an effective management
strategy as it allows process management and improvement.
A recurring theme in the literature on performance measurement relates to funding limitations
and asset management. As agencies experience funding constraints while maintaining mature
infrastructure systems, effective management of all assets is important to their success. The TAC
framework for asset management (TAC, 2001) suggests performance measures be used for
planning and programming. Performance measures are needed to evaluate the state of assets,
which is a first step in developing priorities and allocating resources amongst competing
priorities. Consequently, performance measures have been called the “backbone” of asset
management systems and are considered to be a critical tool to report successes and opportunities
(Bradbury, 2004).In the modern era of sustainability, performance measurement is also seen as
key to measuring progress on that front. Transportation systems are recognized for the benefits
they provide to the economy in terms of access and mobility but are also recognized for putting
pressure on our environment. Widely held policy goals are to make progress towards
sustainability while increasing economic prosperity and quality of life. In order to understand
whether our systems are becoming more or less sustainable, measurement of performance
against related indicators is necessary (Gudmundsson, 2001). While many good reasons exist to
measure performance of the road network so that it can be monitored and improved, some
caveats are also offered in the literature. In particular, Pickrell and Neumann (2001) noted that
the use of performance measurement to benchmark performance of one agency against another
can be problematic. Benchmarking may help an agency to initially define a reasonable or
desirable level of performance but it may not be useful as an ongoing comparison. While there is
some interest in obtaining a national ranking by performance measures, it will not be informative
if agencies are operating in different circumstances or are not truly peers. Differences in
measures may be the result of divergent objectives, differing resource availability or external
factors and not the result of agencies’ performance. (7)
2.2.2 Developing Performance Measures
Transportation departments are fortunate to have a wealth of data available to them regarding the
services they provide and the infrastructure they build, operate and maintain if they try to collect
the data extensively. However, in a data-rich environment, the challenge is to determine how
best to gather, analyze and present the data so that it is meaningful to stakeholders, and this is
especially important for performance measures that are reported to or used by a broad range of
audiences. In developing a performance measurement process and implementing it as a
management system, the selection of the “right” performance measures is a critical step. When
developing performance measures, the research emphasizes that the process should begin by
defining an agency’s vision, its mission and strategic objectives in our case AACRAs vision is
“Construct reliable, standardized and quality roads in Addis Ababa City. Besides to expand the
road transport coverage of the city, strive to attain in 2020 the road network to 20% for the
community to get interchangeable traffic flow.” And its mission is “Building Asphalt roads,
Gravel Access Roads, Coble Stone pavement Roads, Drainages, Bridges and concrete roads
and making that for residents of Addis Ababa remarkably enhance the regular activities, there of
using hi-tech and low cost being constructed by contractors and own force at improving level on
time available for public service.” While these may be long-range in focus, performance
measures used by an agency must be related to those broad goals. Long-term strategic goals can
be translated into specific annual goals, against which performance is measured. Policy-makers
and agency staff must be educated to understand the performance measures and to accept the link
between them and the agency’s goals (Poister, 1997).In the case of AACRA when we state its
power and duties some of them are
 Initiate policies and laws with regard to road network, construction, protection and use of
roads
 Determine design standards for road and implement same
Prepare long term, medium and short term plans and programs with respect to the construction of
roads and other related activities, and implement same upon approval
 Carry out or cause the carrying out of feasibility study and implement
 Prepare design for the construction of roads or cause its preparation through qualified
consultants
 Construct roads on its own or have them construct through contractors
 Determine the criteria for the selection of consultants and contractors for roads to be
constructed by other bodies
 Prepare and cause the preparation of work consultancy service contracts, conclude contracts
and see to it that there is supervision with (a contractor an ensuring that works are executed as
per contracts conclude and supervise same)
 Design or cause the designing of traffic signs with regard to roads, collect information from
appropriate government offices and place traffic signs on roads, and inform to concerned offices
of that they do follow up and implement accordingly
 Determine the size of land required for pedestrian roads and standards for the construction
thereof, and it shall also construct, cause the construction of and protect pedestrian side walks’
 See to it that the personnel necessary for the authority are trained and establish training
institutions
As we observe from the list of duties there are no duties regarding performance evaluation and
measures. Performance measures should cover the full range of an agency’s strategic objectives,
but should nonetheless be few in number. In Japan, for example, the national ministry has
established a core set of 17 performance measures (Federal Highway Administration, 2004).
Limiting the selection of measures to those that reflect the issues that are important to an agency
will simplify data collection and reporting. It will also increase the likelihood the measures will
be understood by the public and used effectively by agencies.
In selecting a set of performance measures, it is important to recognize the distinction between
input, output and outcome measures. Input measures reflect the resources that are dedicated to a
program, output measures reflect the products of a program, and outcome measures look at the
impact of the products on the goals of the agency (Dalton et al, 2005). Input- and output-based
performance measurement was more common in the past, but current trends are to increase use
of outcome-based performance measures, in conjunction with output-based measures.
Outcomes can be more difficult to measure but are considered important to measure because they
directly relate to the activities an agency undertakes to its strategic goals. However,
transportation agencies must consider the availability of data, the cost and time to collect the
necessary data and the quality of the data in selecting performance measures. It must be possible
to generate the measure with the technology and resources available to an agency if the
performance measure is to be adopted.
Other issues that should be considered when selecting performance measures to evaluate a road
network include the following (TRB, 2000):
• For ecastebility: is it possible to compare future alternative projects or strategies using this
measure?
• Clarity: is it likely to be understood by transportation professionals, policy makers and the
public?
• Usefulness: Does the measure reflect the issue or goal of concern? Is it an indicator of
condition, which could be used as a trigger for action? Does it capture cause-and-effect between
the agency’s actions and conditions?
• Ability to diagnose problems: Is there a connection between the measure and the actions that
affect it? Is the measure too aggregated to be helpful to agencies trying to improve performance?
• Temporal Effects: Is the measure comparable across time?
• Relevance: Is the measure relevant to planning and budgeting processes? Will changes in
activities and budget levels affect a change in the measure that is apparent and meaningful?
Can the measure be reported with a frequency that will be helpful to decision makers?
In summary, the list of performance measures that could be adopted by a transportation agency
to evaluate its road network is essentially limitless. There is no one measure, or one set of
measures, that could be identified as the “best” for all cases. Furthermore, although there are
many common issues to be considered, there is not just one good way to develop a set of
performance measures or establish a performance measurement system. In each case, the
performance measures used must depend on the specific conditions of an agency, its goals, its
resources, and its audience. So, for Addis Ababa case AACRA must consider the above issues
and incorporate performance measures in its duties.

2.3 Travel Time Reliability and Model Developing

In recent years, urban road networks in many countries are becoming more congested.
To alleviate traffic congestions, increasing attention has been given to developing intelligent
transportation systems (ITS), with the aim to best use existing transportation networks through
various advanced information technologies. The accurate and robust estimation of travel time
information is critical to many ITS applications.
The provision of updated travel time information enables travelers to make informed path choice
decisions to avoid congested sites. Moreover, the updated travel time information allows for
network operators to evaluate network performance, and to identify bottlenecks for proactively
deploying effective controls so as to improve overall traffic conditions [CITATION Cha17 \l 1033 ].
Travel time is one of the most important measurements for evaluating the operating efficiency of
traffic networks and accurate and reliable travel time information has become increasingly
important for traffic engineers, daily commuters, residents, business owners, MPO members
etc[CITATION Fil12 \l 1033 ].

2.3.1 Travel Time Reliability

Travel time reliability measures are relatively new, but a few have proven effective. Most measures
compare high-delay days to those with an average delay. The most effective methods of measuring travel
time reliability are 90th or 95th percentile travel times, buffer index, and planning time index
Many studies have been conducted in the past on travel time reliability, but most are focused on
freeways and non-recurrent factors on arterials. Conversely, the impact of recurrent factors on
Travel time reliability on urban arterials is still a very complex and challenging problem.
the travel time reliability on arterial networks is usually not only a function of traffic flow, driver
behavior, traffic composition, link capacity and speed limit, but also involves numerous other
factors such as signal timing, roadway and intersection geometries, adjacent land use and
development, median type, signalized intersection spacing, and conflicting traffic from cross
streets [CITATION Fil12 \l 1033 ]
Van Zuylen, H. J. et al. (2005) stated that traffic operations on weaving sections are
characterized by intense lane changing maneuvers and complex vehicle interactions, which can
lead to certain variations in travel time. One of the factors affecting the travel time variability of
weaving sections is the length of the weaving section. In “Travel Time Variability of Freeways
Weaving Sections Control in Transportation Systems”, the relation between weaving section
length and travel time variability is investigated. This is done based on both a simulation
approach and on empirical data. Both indicate a 15 relationship between a certain weaving
section length threshold and travel time variability increases. These implications of this
(preliminary) result are discussed for geometric design purposes and for possible control
applications, which can reduce then travel time variability in the short weaving sections

Reliability
The reliability is measured in term of travel time threshold, which typically represents the
addition of the extra time (or cushion time) to the average travel time when most travelers are
planning trips to ensure on-time arrival. “Reliable” segments are those on which travel time
threshold is equal to or lowers than the buffer time added to the average travel time. Reliability
is concerned with three key elements of this definition:

First, reliability is a probability which is concerned with meeting the specific probability of
consistency or dependability at a statistical confidence level.

Second, reliability applies to a defined threshold and specific time periods.

Third, reliability is restricted to operation under stated conditions. This constraint is necessary
because it is impossible to design a system for unlimited conditions.

2.3.1 Model Developing

The “Modeling Network Travel Time Reliability under Stochastic Demand” study conducted by
Stephen Clark and David Watling in 2003 proposed a method for estimating the probability
distribution of total network travel time in the light of normal day-to-day variations in the travel
demand matrix over a road traffic network. A solution method is proposed, based on a single run
of a standard traffic assignment model, which operates in two stages. In stage one, moments of
the travel time distribution are computed by an analytic method, based on the multivariate
moments of the link flow vector. In stage two, a flexible family of density functions is fitted to
these moments. Stephen Clark and David Watling discussed how the resulting distribution may
in practice be used to characterize unreliability. Illustrative numerical tests are reported on a
simple network, where the method is seen to provide a means of identifying sensitive or
vulnerable links and for the examining the impact on network reliability of changes to link
capacities.

Chapter Three
 3 Research methodology, and Procedures

3.1 Study Area

This research study area is located at Addis Ababa, the capital city of the Federal Democratic
Republic of Ethiopia, is located in the center of the country. Established in 1886, the city has
experienced several planning changes that have influenced its physical and social growth. As a
chartered city (Rasgez Astedader), Addis Ababa has the status of both a city and a state. It is
where the African Union and its predecessor the OAU are based. Addis Ababa is therefore often
referred to as the political capital of Africa, due to its historical, diplomatic and political
significance for the continent. The city is populated by people from different regions of Ethiopia
– the country has as many as 80 nationalities speaking 80 languages and belonging to a wide
variety of religious communities. It is home to Addis Ababa University. The Federation of
African Societies of Chemistry (FASC) and Horn of Africa Press Institute (HAPI) are also
headquartered in Addis Ababa which is the capital city of Ethiopia. Since Addis Ababa is the
capital city of Ethiopia the population growth rate and socio-economic development is highest
relative to other regions. This growth rate has direct effect on traffic volume and it is major way
cause of traffic congestion and traffic delay on straight and level road, different intersections.
This study evaluates from Megenagna to Hayate Adebabaye , Sarese Abu to Piasa and Mexico
to Merkato road network expose to excessive amount of traffic volume

Fig 3.1 Layout of Addis Ababa City Administration Source: City development plan (20017)

3.2 Research methodology

Travel time, or the time required to traverse a route between any two points of interest, is a
fundamental measure in transportation. Travel time is a simple concept understood and
communicated by a wide variety of applications for transportation engineers and
planners[ CITATION DrT14 \l 1033 ].
Several data collection techniques can be used to collect travel times. These techniques are
designed to collect travel times and average speeds on designated roadway segments or links.
Following are the different techniques available for the travel time data collection.
• Test Vehicle Techniques
• License Plate Matching Techniques
• ITS Probe Vehicle Techniques
• Emerging and Non-Traditional Techniques

1 Test Vehicle Techniques - provides instructions for collecting travel time data using active
test vehicles in combination with varying levels of instrumentation: manual (clipboard and
stopwatch), an electronic distance measuring instrument (DMI), or a global positioning system
(GPS) receiver. It involves the use of data collection vehicle within which an observer records
cumulative travel time at predefined checkpoints along a travel route.
Then this information converted to travel time, speed, and delay for each segment along the
survey route. There are several different methods for performing this type of data collection,
depending upon the instrumentation used in the vehicle. These vehicles are instrumented and
then sent into the field for travel time data collection, they are sometimes referred to as “active”
test vehicles

 Advantages
• Advanced test vehicle techniques (e.g., DMI or GPS use) result in detailed data.
• Low initial cost.
 Disadvantages
• Sources of possible error from either human or electric sources that require adequate quality
control,
• Data storage difficulties

2 License Plate Matching Techniques - provides instructions for collecting travel times by
matching vehicle license plates between consecutive checkpoints with varying levels of
instrumentation: tape recorders, video cameras, portable computers, or automatic license plate
character recognition.
 Advantages
• Travel times from a large sample of motorists, very simple technique.
• Provides a continuum of travel times during the data collection period
 Disadvantages
• Travel time data limited to locations where observers or video cameras can be positioned;
• Limited geographic coverage on a single day
• Accuracy of license plate reading is an issue for manual and portable computer

3 ITS Probe Vehicle Techniques - provides guidance on obtaining travel times using intelligent
transportation system (ITS) components and passive probe vehicles in the traffic stream
equipped with signpost-based transponders, automatic vehicle identification (AVI) transponders,
ground-based radio navigation, cellular phones, or GPS receivers. Some vehicles are equipped
with dynamic route guidance (DRG) device which act as roving traffic detectors, a non-
infrastructure based traffic monitoring system. Such vehicles, which are participating in the
traffic flow and capable of determining experienced traffic conditions and transmitting these to a
traffic center, are called probe vehicles. To determine its position and to register experienced
traffic conditions, a probe vehicle is equipped with on-board electronics, such as a location and a
communication device. By means of the location device, the probe vehicle keeps track of its own
geographic position.
Through the communication device, the probe vehicle transmits its traffic experiences via a
mobile communication link to a traffic center. For instance, each probe can transmit traffic
messages once every time interval containing its location and its speed at the instant of
transmission.
In this traffic center the traffic data received from probe vehicles is gathered, and combined with
data from the other monitoring sources, and processed into relevant traffic information.
It is very useful for Advanced Traveler Information system (ATIS)
 Advantages
• Low cost per unit of data
• Continuous data collection
• Automated data collection
• Data are in electronic format
• No disruption of traffic
 Disadvantages
• High implementation cost
• Fixed infrastructure constraints - Coverage area, including locations of antenna
• Requires skilled software
• Not recommended for small scale data collection efforts

4 Emerging and Non-Traditional Techniques - includes information about several techniques

that are currently being researched or tested. Emerging techniques include the use of inductance
loop detectors, weigh-in-motion stations, and video cameras for collecting or estimating travel
times
From the above method of data collection procedures the license plate matching technique is
used.
3.2.1 License Plate Matching Techniques

In this research manual methods of license plate matching are used and it require the field
personnel to read license plates in the field and transcribe the plates into a computer in the office
after the actual time of data collection. License plates can be collected in the field using simple
pen and paper or an audio tape recorder [CITATION Sha98 \l 1033 ].
• Manual: collecting license plates via pen and paper or audio tape recorders and manually
entering license plates and arrival times into a computer;
• Portable Computer: collecting license plates in the field using portable computers that
automatically provide an arrival time stamp;
• Video with Manual Transcription: collecting license plates in the field using video cameras
or camcorders and manually transcribing license plates using human observers; and
• Video with Character Recognition: collecting license plates in the field using video, then
automatically transcribing license plates and arrival times into a computer using computerized
license plate character recognition.

General Advantages and Disadvantages

License plate matching for travel time collection has the following advantages:
• Able to obtain travel times from a large sample of motorists, which is useful in understanding
variability of travel times among vehicles within the traffic stream;
• Provides a continuum of travel times during the data collection period and ability to analyze
short time periods (e.g., 15-minute averages for continuous data); and
• Data collection equipment relatively portable between observation sites.
License plate matching has the following disadvantages:
• Travel time data limited to locations where observers or video cameras can be positioned;
• Limited geographic coverage on a single day;
• Manual and portable computer-based methods are less practical for high-speed freeways or
long sections of roadway with a low percentage of through-traffic;
• Accuracy of license plate reading is an issue for manual and portable computer-based methods;
and
• Skilled data collection personnel required for collecting license plates and/or operating
electronic equipment
Fig 3.2 Manual methods of License Plate Matching Techniques

Designation of Mid-Route Checkpoints

Checkpoints are designated locations along a route where license plate characters and arrival
times are noted. The number of checkpoints along a route will vary according to the character of
the roadway and the street network configuration. Along roadways with a relatively high level of
access, checkpoints should be spaced closer than roadways with lower levels of access. Vehicle
trip patterns also affect the designation of mid-route checkpoints, with long-distance trips being
more amenable to widely spaced checkpoints. Checkpoints should also be located at major
interchanges, intersections, jurisdictional boundaries, and transition points between different
roadway cross-sections or land uses.
The following are suggested guidelines for spacing checkpoints for license plate matching (1):
• Freeways/Expressways - high access frequency - 1.6 to 4.8 km (1 to 3 mi)
• Freeways/Expressways - low access frequency - 4.8 to 8.0 km (3 to 5 mi)
• Arterial Streets - high cross street/driveway frequency - 0.8 to 1.6 km (½ to 1 mi)
• Arterial Streets - low cross street/driveway frequency - 1.6 to 3.2 km (1 to 2 mi)
These ranges are approximate, and actual segment lengths may vary according to the roadway
network and desired detail of study. Corridor and site surveys should be used in selecting the
most desirable checkpoints and their spacing. An attempt should be made to select checkpoints
that are consistent with current roadway inventory or other database

Manual Methods of License Plate Matching

For the purposes of this handbook, manual methods of license plate matching are those that
require the field personnel to read license plates in the field and transcribe the plates into a
computer in the office after the actual time of data collection. License plates can be collected in
the field using simple pen and paper or an audio tape recorder.

Advantages and Disadvantages

Manual license plate matching has the following advantage (as compared to other methods of
license plate matching):
• Minimum amount of simple field equipment required.
Manual license plate matching has the following disadvantages:
• Collection of large samples of license plates in the field is difficult; and
• Transcription of license plates is very labor-intensive (typically 10 hours per
hour of data collection
 Chapter Four

4 Data Collection and Analysis

Travel time data often are collected for several purposes or potential uses. For example, travel
time data might be collected for the congestion management process and also be used to calibrate
travel demand forecasting models or as input to mobile source emissions models. For situations
in which the travel time data must be used for several purposes, the data should be collected for
the use that requires the finest level of detail. The travel time data can then be aggregated or
analyzed to meet other study needs. In the earlier example, the mobile source emissions model
may require second by-second speeds to capture the acceleration and deceleration patterns in
congestion. Once the second-by-second speed data has been collected, it can be aggregated for
less data-intensive uses such as calibrating a travel demand forecasting model or monitoring
area-wide congestion trends.
The emerging practice of using data collected by intelligent transportation system (ITS)
applications for planning and evaluation purposes illustrates an important point about
understanding uses and users of data. Until recently, ITS components were seen as providing
valuable data only for operating transportation facilities. Several transportation agencies have
recognized the many uses of ITS data for planning and evaluation applications and are beginning
to share data resources where ITS applications have been deployed.

4.1Sample size
Vehicle sample sizes typically are not a large concern for license plate matching (as compared to
the test vehicle technique) because data collection includes a large number of vehicles. However,
the average sample sizes for license plate matching are greater than test vehicle sample sizes
because of a difference in the sampled travel time variability for these two techniques. The
variability of license plate matching travel time samples generally are higher than test vehicle
travel time samples because license plate matching captures a wide range of driving patterns and
vehicle types. The test vehicle technique uses a limited number of drivers (data collection
personnel) that reduce travel time variability by “floating” with traffic.
The required minimum sample sizes for license plate matching are calculated using Equation
This equation is most useful in ensuring that collected data meets minimum statistical sample
sizes.
The prioritized sampling technique ensures that reliable, timely data exists for severely
congested segments, and that the remaining, less critical segments are sampled on a less frequent
basis. It will ensure that travel times at major bottlenecks such as lane drops, bridge/tunnel
approaches, and freeway entrance locations are measured.
 Table 4-1. Sample Size Estimation Equations

For this research the sample size is calculated as follows

4.2 Data Collection Procedures
The following procedures are followed in order to come up with the research objectives

Getting permission from Addis Ababa city roads Authority for

data collection

Define the routes to be studied;

Designate the checkpoints and

specific locations where observers
will be positioned;

Define the time period during

which data will be collected;;

Train personnel and

Compute number of license plates practice reading one to
needed for minimum sample sizes two hours of license
plates in actual roadside
conditions
Analysis and developing travel
time reliability model

Collected Data
1 Travel Time
2 Traffic volume

Classified Traffic Volume Count

Date of
Location ID
IC- LOC -02 Survey 11/4/2017

Location Ethiopian Road Autority

Name

Direction Direction
From Wabishebel To Postal House

Cars/Vans Cars/Vans
2
Time Time Auto (3 / Jeep / Jeeps Mini Articulated
Wheele Bus
(Internationa (Ethiopian wheeler) (Taxi, (Personal, Bus Bus
r
l Time) Time) Code:1) Code:2)
07:00 - 07:15 01:00 - 01:15              
07:15 - 07:30 01:15 - 01:30     49 32 4 8  
07:30 - 07:45 01:30 - 01:45     39 50 5 10  
07:45 - 08:00 01:45 - 02:00     47 54 2 4  
08:00 - 08:15 02:00 - 02:15 1   10 119 1 4  
08:15 - 08:30 02:15 - 02:30 2   65 101 2 6  
08:30 - 08:45 02:30 - 02:45 2   79 113 3 5  
08:45 - 09:00 02:45 - 03:00     65 95 2 3  
09:00 - 09:15 03:00 - 03:15 8   50 101 1 8  
09:15 - 09:30 03:15 - 03:30 5   44 85 1 3  
09:30 - 09:45 03:30 - 03:45 9   42 105 1 3  
09:45 - 10:00 03:45 - 04:00 3   40 95 2 5  
10:00 - 10:15 04:00 - 04:15 7   50 105 2 7  
10:15 - 10:30 04:15 - 04:30 7   44 9 2 8  
10:30 - 10:45 04:30 - 04:45 12   36 90   6  
10:45 - 11:00 04:45 - 05:00 4   44 122 1 7  
11:00 - 11:15 05:00 - 05:15 2   63 114   5  
11:15 - 11:30 05:15 - 05:30     74 130 1 2  
11:30 - 11:45 05:30 - 05:45 3   68 142 3 2  
11:45 - 12:00 05:45 - 06:00 5   62 125   4  
12:00 - 12:15 06:00 - 06:15 3   70 132 2 8  
12:15 - 12:30 06:15 - 06:30 10   82 115   5  
12:30 - 12:45 06:30 - 06:45 6   95 162 1 5  
12:45 - 13:00 06:45 - 07:00 7   77 118   7  
13:00 - 13:15 07:00 - 07:15 5   56 90 1 3  
13:15 - 13:30 07:15 - 07:30 8   45 93   6  
13:30 - 13:45 07:30 - 07:45 2   52 81   7  
13:45 - 14:00 07:45 - 08:00 2   60 75 2 7  
14:00 - 14:15 08:00 - 08:15 3   69 124   10  
14:15 - 14:30 08:15 - 08:30 4   55 110   2  
14:30 - 14:45 08:30 - 08:45 4   40 110 2 5  
14:45 - 15:00 08:45 - 09:00 3   58 105   8  
15:00 - 15:15 09:00 - 09:15 3   32 110 2 6  
15:15 - 15:30 09:15 - 09:30 3   51 80 1 6  
15:30 - 15:45 09:30 - 09:45 3   40 115 2 6  
15:45 - 16:00 09:45 - 10:00 1   44 115 1 5  
16:00 - 16:15 10:00 - 10:15 3   57 105 1 6  
16:15 - 16:30 10:15 - 10:30 2   45 120 3 5  
16:30 - 16:45 10:30 - 10:45 3   45 125   8  
16:45 - 17:00 10:45 - 11:00 1   45 105 1 10  
17:00 - 17:15 11:00 - 11:15 6   39 115 1 6  
17:15 - 17:30 11:15 - 11:30 3   34 115 1 9  
17:30 - 17:45 11:30 - 11:45 3   65 119 3 8  
17:45 - 18:00 11:45 - 12:00     105 123 1 2  
18:00 - 18:15 12:00 - 12:15 3   52 145   9  
18:15 - 18:30 12:15 - 12:30 5   50 115 2 3  
18:30 - 18:45 12:30 - 12:45 3   35 100 1 5  
18:45 - 19:00 12:45 - 13:00 2   37 115   2  
19:00 - 19:15 13:00 - 13:15 1   85 137 2 3  
19:15 - 19:30 13:15 - 13:30     46 138 1 3  
19:30 - 19:45 13:30 - 13:45 1   46 113 2 8  
19:45 - 20:00 13:45 - 14:00     53 90 3 5  
20:00 - 20:15 14:00 - 14:15     47 130   6  
20:15 - 20:30 14:15 - 14:30     85 135   3  
20:30 - 20:45 14:30 - 14:45 4   14 24      
20:45 - 21:00 14:45 - 15:00     40 70      
21:00 - 21:15 15:00 - 15:15 2   38 50      
21:15 - 21:30 15:15 - 15:30 2   28 45      
21:30 - 21:45 15:30 - 15:45 1   20 38   1  
21:45 - 22:00 15:45 - 16:00   2 20 33   2  
22:00 - 22:15 16:00 - 16:15 1   30 22 1    
22:15 - 22:30 16:15 - 16:30 2   27 27 1    
22:30 - 22:45 16:30 - 16:45     35 45      
22:45 - 23:00 16:45 - 17:00 1 2 23 21 2    
23:00 - 23:15 17:00 - 17:15     21 17      
23:15 - 23:30 17:15 - 17:30 2   23 21      
23:30 - 23:45 17:30 - 17:45     30 12      
23:45 - 00:00 17:45 - 18:00 3   37 13 1    
00:00 - 00:15 18:00 - 18:15 2   22 11      
00:15 - 00:30 18:15 - 18:30 1   19 17      
00:30 - 00:45 18:30 - 18:45     24 13      
00:45 - 01:00 18:45 - 19:00     16 5      
01:00 - 01:15 19:00 - 19:15     17 3 1    
01:15 - 01:30 19:15 - 19:30 1   6 4      
01:30 - 01:45 19:30 - 19:45     17 4      
01:45 - 02:00 19:45 - 20:00     4 3      
02:00 - 02:15 20:00 - 20:15 1   3 2      
 02:15 - 02:30 20:15 - 20:30 1   4 4      
02:30 - 02:45 20:30 - 20:45 1   2 2      
02:45 - 03:00 20:45 - 21:00     6 2      
03:00 - 03:15 21:00 - 21:15     5 4      
03:15 - 03:30 21:15 - 21:30     7 4      
03:30 - 03:45 21:30 - 21:45     5 6      
03:45 - 04:00 21:45 - 22:00 1   6 5      
04:00 - 04:15 22:00 - 22:15     7 6      
04:15 - 04:30 22:15 - 22:30     10 5      
04:30 - 04:45 22:30 - 22:45     6 6      
04:45 - 05:00 22:45 - 23:00     12 9 1    
05:00 - 05:15 23:00 - 23:15     7 8 1    
05:15 - 05:30 23:15 - 23:30     6 9 1    
05:30 - 05:45 23:30 - 23:45     16 9 2    
05:45 - 06:00 23:45 - 00:00     6 11 1    
06:00 - 06:15 00:00 - 00:15     4 6 1    
06:15 - 06:30 00:15 - 00:30     15 15 1 6  
06:30 - 06:45 00:30 - 00:45     26 9   2  
06:45 - 07:00 00:45 - 01:00     29 23 2 5  

3 parking
4 road width

4.3 Data Analysis

4.3.1 Travel time parameters
Flow Free Speed
Free-flow speed occurs when volumes are low and drivers are not influenced by the presence of
other vehicles or traffic control devices. This speed theoretically represents the maximum
average speed at which traffic will typically travel on a roadway segment in the absence of any
impeding factors other than roadway geometry. A common approach to measure free-flow speed
is to measure travel times during periods of light traffic.
One potential problem in obtaining free-flow travel information through direct field
measurement is that this approach may yield speeds above posted speed limits. In such a
situation, the assessment of free flow speed and free-flow travel time are often capped to values
that would be obtained if traffic were actually following speed limits. The rationale for capping
calculations is that congestion should only be measured with respect to the legal speed limit on
each segment since these limits define the minimum travel time for which each segment is
intended to operate in the absence of congestion.
Average Speed
The average speed is simply the ratio of the total distance traveled over the total time taken to
travel the distance. It is a measure of how fast a vehicle is progressing along a segment when
factoring all the delays imposed by other vehicles and traffic control devices
Ls−Lo
Savg=
ts−t 0

Where:
Savg = Average speed
L0 = Center of upstream intersection
Ls = Center of downstream intersection
t0 = Time when vehicle is at center of upstream intersection
ts= Time when vehicle is at center of downstream intersection
Running Speed
The running speed characterizes travel behavior when drivers are influenced by other vehicles
but not traffic speed is conceptually calculated by dividing the length of the segment under
consideration by the time taken to travel the segment less stop delay

Where:
Sr = Running speed
L0 = Center of upstream intersection
L5 = Center of downstream control devices. This can be viewed as the speed at which drivers
would travel on a roadway segment carrying a certain amount of traffic if all traffic signals were
always green. The running intersection
X = Approximate distance from intersection A where most vehicles have accelerated to the
running speed
Y = Approximate distance upstream from intersection B where vehicles begin decelerating
tX = Time when vehicle is at location X
tY = Time when vehicle is at location Y
sr = Running speed

segment length (km)

×3600 sec /her
Estimated travel time= time−mean speed ( km )
her
∑ Vi ∑ d /t i
Time –mean speed (VTMS ) = n = n

distance traveled d
Space mean speed (Vsms) = avg travel time = ∑ ti/n

distance traveld d
Average running speed (Vr)= avg runnigtime = ∑ tri/ n

Where:
d = distance traveled or length of roadway segment;
n = number of observations;
v = speed of the ith vehicle
ti = travel time of the ith vehicle; and
tri= running time of the ith vehicle

4.3.2 Model developing

Regression Analysis
A regression model expresses a ‘dependent’ variable as a function of one or more ‘independent’
variables, generally in the form

The line that expresses the relationship between the y variable, called the dependent variable.
Regression with a single dependent variable y whose value is dependent upon the independent
variable x is expressed as

Where α is a constant, so is β. x is the independent variable and ϵ is the error term. Standard error
of the regression ϵ is considered normally distributed with a mean of zero, and a variance equal
to σ2.
The importance of travel time reliability for road users in the coming years is also described. The
research objectives, which describe a new travel time threshold (reliability) based on the 95th or
other percentile travel time the 95th or other percentile travel time, and the average travel time,
are included in. In addition, the theoretical and practical relevance of the model are illustrated.

Adaptability of Model

“Traffic processes are characterized by constant change, due to structural changes in both traffic
demand patterns as well as traffic supply characteristics. The model should be able to track these
changes and adapt accordingly to preserve its validity” (Van Lint, J.W.C., 2004).

Generality of Model

The model will be general, and not-location-specific, at least in terms of mathematical structure
and the overall input-output relationships. For example, an urban arterial model should be
applicable on different arterial networks, with different geometrical properties (number of lanes,
access density). A model that requires specific design for every location is not likely to be
successfully deployed on a large scale.

1.3.3 Robustness of Model

If the data to the model is corrupt, which is a common problem in real-time traffic data collection
systems, the model should be able to produce reasonable outcomes (which could even be a
message indicating something is wrong).

1.3.4 Accuracy of Model

The difference between what actually happened and the information (in the case of travel time)
should be as small as possible, which is subject to location and application specific
circumstances. Roughly, model output errors can be categorized into two types:
11 structural errors (bias) and random errors (variance). Put simply, an accurate model makes
small (quantitative mistakes), in terms of both bias and variance.
This travel time reliability model will be useful to:
evaluate strategies and tactics to satisfy the travel time reliability requirements of users of the
urban roadway networks,
provide guidance on planning, geometric and traffic designing, and traffic operations features.