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    Executive Summary: Mohit - Sinha@bmu - Edu.in

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    The document summarizes an Indian COVID-19 response model based on game theory and dynamic strategies. It analyzes the interactions between government efforts to control spread through tracking, testing and isolation, and public behavior around social distancing. Key findings include: 1) Aggressive testing targets by May 14-21, including random testing, can flatten the curve by May 24 and allow reopening by mid-June. 2) Meeting testing targets gives a 70-95% chance infections will remain below 104,331 by May 14. 3) The model accounts for factors like tracking effectiveness, exposure from non-compliant individuals, and test positivity rates. Projections consider scenarios with different intervention strategies.

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    Executive Summary: Mohit - Sinha@bmu - Edu.in

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    rkasturi
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    The document summarizes an Indian COVID-19 response model based on game theory and dynamic strategies. It analyzes the interactions between government efforts to control spread through tracking, testing and isolation, and public behavior around social distancing. Key findings include: 1) Aggressive testing targets by May 14-21, including random testing, can flatten the curve by May 24 and allow reopening by mid-June. 2) Meeting testing targets gives a 70-95% chance infections will remain below 104,331 by May 14. 3) The model accounts for factors like tracking effectiveness, exposure from non-compliant individuals, and test positivity rates. Projections consider scenarios with different intervention strategies.

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    COVID executive summary

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    1588364949248_IndiaCovid19_GTM+DSI_ExecutiveSummary

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    The document summarizes an Indian COVID-19 response model based on game theory and dynamic strategies. It analyzes the interactions between government efforts to control spread through tracking, testing and isolation, and public behavior around social distancing. Key findings include: 1) Aggressive testing targets by May 14-21, including random testing, can flatten the curve by May 24 and allow reopening by mid-June. 2) Meeting testing targets gives a 70-95% chance infections will remain below 104,331 by May 14. 3) The model accounts for factors like tracking effectiveness, exposure from non-compliant individuals, and test positivity rates. Projections consider scenarios with different intervention strategies.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    28 views2 pages

    Executive Summary: Mohit - Sinha@bmu - Edu.in

    Uploaded by

    rkasturi
    The document summarizes an Indian COVID-19 response model based on game theory and dynamic strategies. It analyzes the interactions between government efforts to control spread through tracking, testing and isolation, and public behavior around social distancing. Key findings include: 1) Aggressive testing targets by May 14-21, including random testing, can flatten the curve by May 24 and allow reopening by mid-June. 2) Meeting testing targets gives a 70-95% chance infections will remain below 104,331 by May 14. 3) The model accounts for factors like tracking effectiveness, exposure from non-compliant individuals, and test positivity rates. Projections consider scenarios with different intervention strategies.

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    of 2

    Executive Summary

    THE INDIAN COVID RESPONSE: A LESSON IN GAME THEORY WITH DYNAMIC STRATEGY

    The Indian response to the Covid19 from day one has been Differential Game-Theoretic with
    dynamic intervention strategies to control the spread and growth of this foreign virus by actively
    screening tracking, contact-tracing followed by monitoring/testing and isolation/ quarantine as
    applicable to all the inbound passengers at all ports of entry, from Day-1 starting Mid-January. Such
    a Game-theoretic approach with right strategies is known to turn exponential growth curves to
    polynomial and even linear ending up flat eventually. In fact, the Indian game-theoretic approach
    should become the Global benchmark for future pandemic management even for local outbreaks by
    sealing the epicentre (Red-Zone) while the rest of the country follows the Indian approach.

    This is exactly the reason many standard western Models applied blindly and oblivious to the Indian
    game-theoretic scenario and strategy were churning out numbers running into 10s -100s of Millions
    infections-peak, given our 1.3 Billion population and scaring most Indians (which led me to start
    making this Game Theoretic Model in March Beginning). The Game is between the GOI/states
    Machinery on one side and the Delinquent/negligent elements amidst public on the other
    (delinquency for jumping screening/isolation & negligence for lack of social distancing), and Not with
    the NCOV virus whose time evolution differential equations are well-known given R0 etc.

    The key advantage with this “Game-Theoretic Model with Dynamic Strategic Interventions
    (GTM+DSI)”, is that not only can we make accurate projections for future time-evolution of the
    infections, but we can also Quantitively Analyse and suggest Specific Strategic Advisories in terms of
    very Specific Required future Action-Items, which will ensure that we achieve our desired infection
    control and Lockdown exit targets with a very high probability. Our Key Findings are as follows:

    • Minimum (1.5Million) by May-14, Preferable (2.25Million) & Ideal (3.5Milliom) PCR Testing
    & isolation Targets have to be met by May14-21, with a significant Random Testing
    component (up to 1/4th these numbers in a ratio of 8:2:1 across Red : Orange : Green
    zones),to Flatten the CCT/infections Curve by May-24 and Open the Country in a safe data-
    driven manner by June-Mid (with 95% Chance) after 10-14 days of Monitoring & RAB (Rapid
    Anti-Body) Testing driven Community Surveillance beyond May-24.
    • If the above Testing Targets are met, Projections are of 36773-67305 (70% probability) &
    67305-104331 (25% probability) for May-14 and only 5% chance of CCT/infections > 104331
    by May-14, and thus not unlocking the country at large by June-Mid (1st / 2nd Week).
    • Other key Risk factors, their mitigation strategies and other important Strategic advisories
    are listed in the detailed reports (Parts I & II) dated 5th and 25th April

    The Game: Currently the model is theoretically a discrete “difference Game theory” with a “n ->
    n+1” representing a time-resolution of 1 week. The key problem with Covid19 is that it can have an
    incubation period of up to 2 weeks and the current Indian testing protocol of overwhelming majority
    of tests directed towards people with inbound/contact history and symptoms. So, a person infected
    today can be an asymptomatic spreader for 1-2 weeks and even if symptoms appear, he will be
    under observation for nearly 5 more days minimum and test results will come in another two, which
    makes the discovery of a confirmed case , making one game cycle 3 weeks and we make
    observations/ calculations for results (CCT: Cumulative Confirmed Tests) every 7-10 days intervals in
    the model. The efficiency/ negligence of the state machinery and the irrationality/delinquency of the
    public in this game have been factored as follows:

    Page 1 of 2
    Prof. Mohit Sinha -ECE/Physics at BML Munjal University, Gurgaon-122413, INDIA
    Email: [email protected] , LI: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mohit-sinha-5282037/
    dated: 25/04/2020
    Executive Summary

    • TLF: Tracking Leakage Fraction (Measure of negligence of the state machinery). It represents
    the fraction of people who were supposed to be tracked but leaked out.
    • EPDAL: Exposure Per Delinquent Absconder (DA) Lost (Measure of both the delinquency of
    DA and the negligence of the state machinery along with the negligence by public in terms of
    lack of social distancing).
    • EPDAC: Exposure Per Delinquent Absconder (DA) Caught (Measure of both the delinquency
    of the public along with the negligence by public in terms of lack of social distancing).
    • Test Positivity (TP): defined as the ratio of the number of +ve tests to the total no. of PCR
    tests done. There can be Cumulative TP and the Daily TP. Both should be recorded daily.

    Part I: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/indian-covid-response-lesson-game-theory-lockdown-must-
    mohit-sinha/ .Due to lack of data in March, Only worst case, Boundary Case etc. Analyses, and
    probabilistic projections were made for 5th April and 15th April the and results’ report published on
    “Linkedin”. Actual CCT numbers (5232, 12370) on both occasions perfectly matched projections, and
    fell in the highest probability zones (5100, 10163-12694). As seen in Figure-1, the Key Takeaway is
    For example, The highest Red solid-line curve (worst-case) can be brought down to the “dot-dash”
    cyan curve which is below the solid-blue curve, which in a way is the Boundary-case for the curves
    flattening in May & country opening up by June-Beginning, and beyond which (Red & Magenta
    curves) we will run into 1-2M(Million) CCTs by June-end. All “solid line curves” are Static Strategy
    (SS) while “dot-dash curves” are Dynamic Strategies (DS) applied on different SS curves.

    Figure-1 Figure-2

    Part II: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/indian-lock-down-getting-exit-strategy-right-amidst-


    challenges-sinha/ . Actual CCT Data from April 7th -25th was incorporated and threat of suboptimal
    PCR testing has been quantitatively studied for additional spreading due to the undiscovered cases
    (Observed, Real & Ideal CCT curves) and a gentler growth in “Observed CCT curve”, possibly leading
    to complacency and a much higher “Real CCT curve”. The measure of good testing numbers, is when
    one starts to again get roughly the same (or lesser) Test-Positivity which was got in the first 25K-30K
    PCR tests done on the contact-trace of the initial few 100s who carried/spread the foreign virus into
    India. Then we derive the required PCR/RAB Tests & projections for Mid-May to unlock by June-Mid.

    As seen in Figure-2 above, “Real Data” Lies between “SS-3+DS-1 Observed” & “SS-2+DS-1 Observed”
    and later these two DSIs (Dynamic Strategy Interventions) are discussed in detail w.r.t. the Observed
    CCT, “Real CCTs with Slow Testing Ramp-up” & the “Ideal CCTs with Fast Testing Ramp-up”, to derive
    our key findings and strategic advisories in terms of the PCR and RAB Testing Targets, the Projections
    and their probabilities for May14, the mitigation strategies for key risk factors etc. to unlock by June.

    Page 2 of 2
    Prof. Mohit Sinha -ECE/Physics at BML Munjal University, Gurgaon-122413, INDIA
    Email: [email protected] , LI: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mohit-sinha-5282037/
    dated: 25/04/2020

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