Landslide Science and Practice: Claudio Margottini Paolo Canuti Kyoji Sassa

Claudio Margottini
Paolo Canuti · Kyoji Sassa

Editors
Landslide Science
and Practice
Volume 3
Spatial Analysis and Modelling
Landslide Science and Practice
.
Claudio Margottini • Paolo Canuti • Kyoji Sassa
Editors
Landslide Science
and Practice
Volume 3: Spatial Analysis and Modelling
Editors
Claudio Margottini Paolo Canuti
ISPRA - Italian Institute for ICL - International Consortium on Landslides
Environmental Protection and Research Florence, Italy
Geological Survey of Italy
Rome, Italy
Kyoji Sassa
UNITWIN Headquarters Building
Kyoto University Uji Campus
Uji, Kyoto, Japan
Associate Editors
Filippo Catani Alessandro Trigila
Department of Earth Sciences ISPRA - Italian Institute for
University of Florence Environmental Protection and Research
Firenze, Italy Geological Survey of Italy
Rome, Italy
Additional material to Volume 1 can be downloaded from http://extras.springer.com
ISBN 978-3-642-31309-7 ISBN 978-3-642-31310-3 (eBook)

DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-31310-3
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Preface
Landslide Science and Practice

Proceedings of the Second World Landslide Forum
The Second World Landslide Forum (WLF) was organized at the headquarters of the Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy, on 3–9 October 2011.
WLF is a triennial mainstream conference of the International Programme on Landslides
(IPL) which is jointly managed by the IPL Global Promotion Committee consisting of the
International Consortium on Landslides (ICL), the United Nations Educational, Scientific and
Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the United Nations International
Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), the United Nations University (UNU), the
International Council for Science (ICSU), and the World Federation of Engineering
Organizations (WFEO).
Background to the World Landslide Forums
The International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) was established by the 2002 Kyoto
Declaration “Establishment of an International Consortium on Landslides,” with the Statutes
adopted in January 2002. The Statutes defined the General Assembly of ICL: In order to
report and disseminate the activities and achievements of the consortium, a General Assembly
shall be convened every 3 years by inviting Members of the International Consortium on
Landslides, individual members within those organizations, and all levels of cooperating
organizations and individual researchers, engineers, and administrators. The General Assem-
bly will receive reports on Consortium activities and provide a forum for open discussion and
new initiatives from all participants.
The First General Assembly 2005 to the First World Landslide Forum 2008
The First General Assembly was organized at the Keck Center of the National Academy of
Sciences in Washington D.C., USA, on 12–14 October 2005. At this Assembly, the first full-
color book reporting consortium activities for the initial 3 years, 2002–2005, was published as
“Landslides-Risk analysis and sustainable disaster management” through Springer. The 2006
Tokyo Round-Table Discussion – “Strengthening Research and Learning on Earth System
Risk Analysis and Sustainable Disaster Management within UN-ISDR as Regards Landslides” –
toward a dynamic global network of the International Programme on Landslides (IPL) was
held at the United Nations University, Tokyo, on 18–20 January 2006. The 2006 Tokyo
v
vi Preface
Action Plan – Strengthening research and learning on landslides and related earth system
disasters for global risk preparedness – was adopted. The Tokyo Action Plan established a
new global International Programme on Landslides (IPL) including holding World Landslide
Forums. Accordingly, the Second General Assembly 2008 was replaced by the First World
Landslide Forum and held at the United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan, on 18–21
November 2008.
Report of the Second World Landslide Forum
The Second World Landslide Forum – Putting Science into Practice – was organized at the
Headquarters of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) on 3–9
October 2011. It was jointly organized by the IPL Global Promotion Committee (ICL,
UNESCO, WMO, FAO, UNISDR, UNU, ICSU, WFEO) and two ICL members in Italy: the
Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA) and the Earth Science
Department of the University of Florence with support from the Government of Italy and
many Italian landslide-related organizations.
• 864 people from 63 countries participated. Attendance was larger than expected, and twice
the attendance at the First World Landslide Forum 2008 in Tokyo (430 participants: 175
from Japan and 255 from abroad).
• 25 technical sessions were held, and 465 full papers were submitted. All accepted papers
were edited in 7 volumes including this volume:
1. Landslide Inventory and Susceptibility and Hazard Zoning
2. Early Warning, Instrumentation and Monitoring
3. Spatial Analysis and Modeling – this volume
4. Global Environmental Change
5. Complex Environment
6. Risk Assessment, Management and Mitigation
7. Social and Economic Impact and Policies
Requests of Cooperation for Further Development of ICL and IPL
ICL and IPL are global multidisciplinary and cross-sectoral initiatives to promote landslide
science and capacity-development to reduce landslide disasters. The core activities of ICL and
IPL are Landslides: Journal of International Consortium on Landslides, World Landslide
Forum, and IPL projects. Thanks to worldwide support of the journal, the Impact Factor of
Landslides was 2.216 for 2011 which is the highest within 30 ISI journals in category of
Engineering, Geological. The journal will develop from a quarterly journal to a bimonthly
journal from Vol. 10 in 2013. The Third World Landslide Forum – Landslide risk mitigation
toward a safer geo-environment – at the China National Convention Center, Beijing, China, on
2–6 June (conference) and 7–11 June (Field Trip) 2014. The ICL entered into the second
decade of its activities and organized a 10th anniversary Conference on 17–20 January 2012,
in Kyoto, Japan. ICL adopted the ICL Strategic Plan 2012–2021, To create a safer geo-
environment- as an outcome of this conference.
ICL is an international nongovernmental and nonprofit scientific organization promoting
landslide research and capacity-building for the benefit of society and the environment, and is
Preface vii
the thematic landslides platform in the UNISDR Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction.
ICL activities are supported by voluntary efforts of ICL members and supporting
organizations. All people involving in landslide research and landslide disaster mitigation
activities are requested to cooperate for the development of this initiative through its second
decade 2012–2021. (http://www.iplhq.org/ and http://icl.iplhq.org/).
We are deeply appreciative of all e Second World Landslide Forum participants and of the
contributions from our UNESCO, WMO, FAO, UNISDR, UNU, ICSU, WFEO partners and
all of our colleagues in ICL for the development of IPL up to now. Finally we address our
sincere thanks to Filippo Catani and Alessandro Trigila (the associate editors) for their
extensive efforts covering the technical sessions, and reviewing and editing the papers.
Claudio Margottini Paolo Canuti Kyoji Sassa

Forum Chair President of ICL Executive Director of ICL
ICL and IPL Secretariat
IPL office: UNITWIN headquarters Buildings, Kyoto University Uji Campus,

Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan
ICL office: The Association for Diaster Prevention Research,
138-1 Tanaka Asukai-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8226, Japan
Email: [email protected]
URL: http://www.iplhq.org/ and http://icl.iplhq.org/
.
Organizational Structure of the Second World
Landslide Forum
Organizers
IPL Global Promotion Committee including:

• International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) *
• United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)
• World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
• Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
• United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR)
• United Nations University (UNU)
• International Council for Science (ICSU)
• World Federation of Engineering Organizations (WFEO)
• Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA)
(* Members are listed in the last page of this book)
Co-sponsors
• International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS)

• International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
• International Geographical Union (IGU)
• International Flood Initiative (IFI)
Under the Auspices of
• International Association for Engineering Geology and the Environment, Italian

Section (IAEG)
• Italian Association of Engineering Geologists (AIGA)
• Italian Association of Geotechnique (AGI)
• Italian Association for Mining Engineers, Environment and Territory (ANIM)
• Italian Georesources and Environment Association (GEAM)
International Organizing Board
Honorary Chairpersons
• Irina BOKOVA (UNESCO Director-General)

• Catherine BRECHIGNAC (ICSU President)
• Jacques DIOUF (FAO Director-General)
ix
x Organizational Structure of the Second World Landslide Forum
• Michel JARRAUD (WMO Secretary-General)

• Maria P. LAFFARGUE (WFEO President)
• Konrad OSTERWALDER (UNU Rector)
• Bernardo DE BERNARDINIS (ISPRA President)
• UNISDR Director
Chairpersons
• Claudio MARGOTTINI (ISPRA, Forum Chair)

• Paolo CANUTI (ICL President)
• Kyoji SASSA (ICL Executive-Director)
Deputy Chairpersons
• Peter BOBROWSKY (IUGS Secretary General)

• Deliang CHEN (ICSU Executive Director)
• Peter LYTTLE (ICL Vice President, US Geological Survey)
• Eduardo ROJAS-BRIALES (Assistant Director General of FAO)
• Badaoui ROUHBAN (Director of UNESCO’s Section for Disaster Reduction)
• Yueping YIN (ICL Vice President, China Geological Survey)
Scientific Advisory Board
Representing Organisation
• Irasema ALCANTARA-AYALA (Vice President of International Geographical Union -

IGU)
• Walter AMMAN (President Davos Forum)
• Michael CROZIER (President of International Association of Geomorphologists - IAG)
• Carlos DELGADO (President of International Association of Engineering Geology -
IAEG)
• Luca DEMICHELI (Secretary General of EuroGeoSurveys)
• John HARDING (United Nations Secretariat to International Strategy for Disaster Reduc-
tion - UNISDR)
• Srikantha HERATH (Senior Academic Programme Officer of the United Nations Univer-
sity - UNU)
• Thomas HOFER (Forestry officer, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations - FAO)
• Yumio ISHII (Chair of the Committee on Disaster Risk Management of The World
Federation of Engineering Organizations WFEO)
• Derek MARTIN (Vice President for North America of International Society for Rock
Mechanics - ISRM)
• Howard MOORE (Senior Advisor, International Council for Science - ICSU)
• Pedro SECO E PINTO (Past President of International Society for Soil Mechanics and
Geotechnical Engineering - ISSMGE)
• Luciano PICARELLI (Chairperson of the Joint Technical Committee on Landslides and
Engineered slopes - JTC1 of ISSMGE, ISRM, IAEG)
• Kaoru TAKARA (Vice chairperson of the Intergovernmental Council of the International
Hydrological Programme of UNESCO - IHP)
• Kuniyoshi TAKEUCHI (President of GeoRisk Commission of International Union of
Geodesy and Geophysics - IUGG)
Organizational Structure of the Second World Landslide Forum xi
Landslide Experts
• Giovanni BARLA (Politecnico di Torino, Italy)

• R.K. BHANDARI (Consultant, India)
• Christophe BONNARD (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne, Switzerland)
• Nicola CASAGLI (University of Florence, Italy)
• Leonardo CASCINI (University of Salerno, Italy)
• Giovanni CROSTA (University of Milano Bicocca, Milano, Italy)
• Jordi COROMINAS (Technical University of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain)
• Dave CRUDEN (University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada)
• Thomas GLADE (University of Vienna, Austria)
• Jerome DE GRAFF (United States Department of Agriculture , Fresno - Ca - USA)
• Michel HERMELIN (Universidad EAFIT, Medellin, Colombia)
• Ken HO (Hong Kong Geotechnical office, Hong Kong, China)
• Jurgen KROPP (Potsdam Institute for Climate Change - PIK, Potsdam, Germany)
• Richard M. IVERSON (United States Geological Survey - Vancouver, WA , USA)
• C. F. LEE (Hong Kong University, China)
• Jacques LOCAT (University of Laval, Canada)
• Paul MARINOS (University of Athens, Greece)
• Hideaki MARUI (Niigata University, Japan)
• Hormoz MODARESSI (BRGM, Orléans, France)
• Farrouk NADIM (Norwegian Geothecnical Institute - NGI, Oslo, Norway)
• Gabriele SCARASCIA MUGNOZZA (University of Rome, Italy)
• Wang SIJING (Tsinghua University, China)
• Vern SINGHROY (Canada Centre for Remote Sensing, Ottawa, Canada)
• Alexander STROM (Institute of Geospheres Dynamics, RAS, Moscow, Russia)
• Ikuo TOWHATA (University of Tokyo, Japan)
• Keith TURNER (Emeritus Professor, Colorado School of Mines, Denver, Colorado USA)
• Keizo UGAI (Gunma University, Kiryu,Gunma, Japan)
• Roger URGELES (Institut de Ciències del Mar - CSIC, Barcelona, Spain
• Yasser el SHAYEB (Cairo University, Egypt)
• Sergio SEPULVEDA (University of Chile, Santiago)
• Mauro SOLDATI (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Italy)
• Pasquale VERSACE (Calabria University, Cosenza, Italy)
• Cees van WESTEN ( ITC, Enschede, Netherlands)
• Kifle WOLDEAREGAY (University of Mekelle, Ethiopia)
Local Organizing Board
Forum Chairs
• Paolo CANUTI (ICL President - WLF2 Chairperson)

• Claudio MARGOTTINI (ISPRA - WLF2 Chairperson)
• Kyoji SASSA (ICL Secretary General - WLF2 Chairperson)
Scientific Programme Committee
• Luciano PICARELLI (Second University of Napoli)

• Marco AMANTI (ISPRA)
• Filippo CATANI ( University of Firenze)
• Fausto GUZZETTI (CNR-IRPI)
• Javier HERVAS (JRC)
xii Organizational Structure of the Second World Landslide Forum
• Thomas HOFER (FAO)

• Carla IADANZA (ISPRA)
• Paolo TOMMASI (CNR-IGAG)
• Alessandro TRIGILA (ISPRA)
Editorial Committee
• Filippo CATANI ( University of Firenze)

• Riccardo FANTI ( University of Firenze)
• Fausto GUZZETTI (CNR-IRPI)
• Javier HERVAS (JRC)
• Irene RISCHIA (ISPRA)
• Gabriele SCARASCIA MUGNOZZA ( Università di Roma "La Sapienza")
• Alessandro TRIGILA (ISPRA)
Logistic Committee
• Thomas HOFER (FAO)

• Orlando PANDOLFI (ECN)
• Luna GUBINELLI
Field Trips
• Gabriele SCARASCIA MUGNOZZA ( University of Roma "La Sapienza")

• Giuseppe DELMONACO (ISPRA)
• Riccardo FANTI ( University of Firenze)
• Irene RISCHIA (ISPRA)
• Daniele SPIZZICHINO (ISPRA)
• Paolo TOMMASI (CNR-IGAG)
Fund Raising and Exhibition

• Paolo FARINA (IDS SpA)
• Giorgio LOLLINO (CNR-IRPI)
Secretariat
ISPRA, Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research
Dept. Geological Survey of Italy, Via Vitaliano Brancati, 48-00144 Rome, Italy.
Logistics and Administration

Orlando PANDOLFI - ECN yourLIFE Foundation
Contents
Part I Advances in Slope Stability Modelling

Introduction by Ken Ho, Filippo Catani, Giulio Iovine, and Alberto Ledesma
Geomechanical Basis of Landslide Classification and Modelling
of Triggering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Gianfrancesco Rocchi and Giovanni Vaciago
Study of Shock Landslide-Type Geomechanical Model Test for Consequent
Rock Slope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Xu Xiangning, Chen Yuliang, and Li Shengwen
Landslide Processes in the Urbanized Moscow Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Valentina Svalova
Landslide Hazard Assessment Based on FS3D Combined
with an Infiltration Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Aline Silva and Lázaro Zuquette
Modelling the Motion of Mobile Debris Flows in Hong Kong . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
J.S.H. Kwan, T.H.H. Hui, and K.K.S. Ho
Modeling Potential Shallow Landslides over Large Areas with SliDispþ . . . . . 37
Daniel Tobler, Rachel Riner, and Robert Pfeifer
Three Dimensional Stability Analysis of the Grohovo Landslide in Croatia . . . 47
Chunxiang Wang, Željko Arbanas, Snježana Mihalić, and Hideaki Marui
Mass Movement Classification Using Morphometric Parameters
(Puebla, Mexico) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Veronica Ochoa-Tejeda, Parrot Jean-François, and Fort Monique
The 2010 Muddy-Debris Flow of Angangueo (Mexico): Modelling
and Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Jean-François Parrot and Veronica Ochoa-Tejeda
A Rock Fall Analysis Study in Parnassos Area, Central Greece . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
George Papathanassiou, Vasilis Marinos, Dimitris Vogiatzis, and Sotiris Valkaniotis
CM
SAKe: A Hydrological Model to Forecasting Landslide Activations . . . . . . . 73
Oreste G. Terranova, Pasquale Iaquinta, Stefano L. Gariano, Roberto Greco,
and Giulio G.R. Iovine
Shallow-Landslide Susceptibility in the Costa Viola Mountain Ridge (Italia) . . . 81
Giulio G.R. Iovine, Roberto Greco, Stefano L. Gariano, Pasquale Iaquinta,
Annamaria Pellegrino, and Oreste G. Terranova
xiii
xiv Contents
Extraction of Rock Mass Structural Data from High Resolution Laser

Scanning Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Giovanni Gigli and Nicola Casagli
Geological and Geophysical Tests to Model a Small Landslide in
the Langhe Hills . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
Sabrina Bonetto, Cesare Comina, Andrea Giuliani, and Giuseppe Mandrone
Regional Distribution of Ash-Fall Pyroclastic Soils for Landslide
Susceptibility Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
Pantaleone De Vita and Michele Nappi
Geotechnical Features of the Volcanic Rocks Related to the Arteara Rock
Avalanche in Gran Canaria (Canary Islands, Spain) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Martı́n Jesús Rodrı́guez-Peces, Jorge Yepes Temiño, and Esther Martı́n-Nicolau
Effects of Parameters in Landslide Simulation Model LS-RAPID on the
Dynamic Behaviour of Earthquake-Induced Rapid Landslides . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
Bin He, Kyoji Sassa, Maja Ostric, Kaoru Takara, and Yosuke Yamashiki
Different Methods to Produce Distributed Soil Thickness Maps
and Their Impact on the Reliability of Shallow Landslide Modeling
at Catchment Scale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
Samuele Segoni, Gianluca Martelloni, and Filippo Catani
Simulating Infiltration Processes into Fractured and Swelling Soils as
Triggering Factors of Landslides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
Annalisa Galeandro, Jirka Šimůnek, and Vincenzo Simeone
Dimensionless Numerical Approach to Perched Waters in 2D Gradually
Layered Soils . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
Stefano Barontini, Marco Peli, Thom A. Bogaard, and Roberto Ranzi
Landslide Motion Forecasting by a Dynamic Visco-Plastic Model . . . . . . . . . . 151
Marco M. Secondi, Giovanni Crosta, Claudio di Prisco, Gabriele Frigerio,
Paolo Frattini, and Federico Agliardi
Intelligent Analysis of Landslide Data Using Machine Learning Algorithms . . . 161
Natan Micheletti, Mikhail Kanevski, Shibiao Bai, Jian Wang, and Ting Hong
Challenging Calibration in 3D Rockfall Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
Paolo Frattini, Giovanni B. Crosta, Federico Agliardi, and Silvia Imposimato
A Simple Model for Passive Failure Compression Structure
at the Toe of Landslide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
Angelo Doglioni, Annalisa Galeandro, and Vincenzo Simeone
Recovery of Strength Along Shear Surfaces in Clay Soils . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
Angelo Doglioni and Vincenzo Simeone
Protection from High Energy Impacts Using Reinforced Soil Embankments:
Design and Experiences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
Alberto Grimod and Giorgio Giacchetti
Quantitative Evaluation of Roughness with a 2D Digital Instrument . . . . . . . . 197
Fabrizio Mazza, Davide Brambilla, Laura Longoni, Paolo Mazzoleni,
Monica Papini, and Emanuele Zappa
Use of SAR Interferometry for Landslide Analysis in the Arno River Basin . . . 203
Marcello Brugioni, Bernardo Mazzanti, Giovanni Montini, and Lorenzo Sulli
Contents xv
Experimental Approach for Stability Evaluations of Carrara

Marble Basins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
Domenico Gullı̀, Maura Pellegri, and Alessandro Cortopassi
Part II Rapid Runout Analysis
Introduction by Marina Pirulli and Claudio Scavia
Runout Prediction of Debris Flows and Similar Mass Movements . . . . . . . . . . 221
Christian Scheidl, Dieter Rickenmann, and Brian W. McArdell
A Ready to Use GRASS GIS Workbench for Rockfall Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
Andrea Filipello and Giuseppe Mandrone
Runout Modelling of Shallow Landslides Over Large Areas with SliDepot . . . 239
DEM and FEM/DEM Modelling of Granular Flows to Investigate Large
Debris Avalanche Propagation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247
Irene Manzella, Herbert H. Einstein, and Giovanni Grasselli
Assessment of Discrete Element Modelling Parameters for Rock
Mass Propagation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255
Guilhem Mollon, Vincent Richefeu, Pascal Villard, and Dominique Daudon
On Controls of Flow-Like Landslide Evolution by an Erodible Layer . . . . . . . 263
Giovanni B. Crosta, Silvia Imposimato, Dennis Roddeman, and Paolo Frattini
Influence of Bed Curvature on the Numerical Modelling
of Unconstrained Granular Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271
Gabriele Pisani, Marina Pirulli, Vincent Labiouse, and Claudio Scavia
Single or Two-Phase Modelling of Debris-Flow? A Systematic Comparison
of the Two Approaches Applied to a Real Debris Flow in Giampilieri
Village (Italy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277
Laura Maria Stancanelli, Giorgio Rosatti, Lorenzo Begnudelli
Aronne Armanini, and Enrico Foti
Runout Prediction of Rock Avalanches in Volcanic and Glacial Terrains . . . . 285
Rosanna Sosio, Giovanni B. Crosta, Johanna H. Chen, and Oldrich Hungr
Physical Modelling of the Propagation of Rock Avalanches:
Recent Developments and Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293
Claire Sauthier and Vincent Labiouse
Debris Flow Analysis: From Lithological Classification of the Basin
to Deposition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301
Chiara Deangeli, Erika Paltrinieri, and Davide Tiranti
Stability Conditions and Evaluation of the Runout of a Potential Landslide
at the Northern Flank of La Fossa Active Volcano, Italy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
Maria Marsella, Aurora Salino, Silvia Scifoni, Alberico Sonnessa,
and Paolo Tommasi
Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of Dynamic Run-Out Model
Parameters for Landslides . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315
B. Quan Luna, J. Cepeda, A. Stumpf, C.J. van Westen, A. Remaı̂tre,
J.-P. Malet, and T.W.J. van Asch
Effects of Grain-Size Composition Examined in Laboratory and
Numerical Tests on Artificial Mud-Flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319
Simonetta Cola, Nancy Calabrò, Paolo Simonini, and Manuel Pastor
xvi Contents
Slope Instabilities in High-Mountain Rock Walls. Recent Events on the Monte

Rosa East Face (Macugnaga, NW Italy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327
Andrea Tamburini, Fabio Villa, Luzia Fischer, Oldrich Hungr
Marta Chiarle, and Giovanni Mortara
New Approach to Rapid Risk Evaluation in Disasters Related
to Landslides-Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 333
Renato Eugenio Lima
Part III GIS Application Developments
Introduction by Serafino Angelini, Esther Jensen, and Raffaele De Amicis
Different Approaches of Rockfall Susceptibility Maps in Lower Austria . . . . . 341
Herwig Proske, Christian Bauer, and Klaus Granica
Mathematical and GIS-Modeling of Landslides in Kharkiv
Region of Ukraine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347
Oleksandr Trofymchuk, Yuriy Kalyukh, and Hanna Hlebchuk
Evaluation and Zonation of Landslide Hazard of Northern Tehran District . . . 353
Ali Uromeihy and Mahsa Sharif
Three-Dimensional Modelling of Rotational Slope Failures
with GRASS GIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 359
Martin Mergili and Wolfgang Fellin
A GRASS GIS Implementation of the Savage-Hutter Avalanche Model
and Its Application to the 1987 Val Pola Event . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367
Martin Mergili, Katharina Schratz, Alexander Ostermann, and Wolfgang Fellin
Proposed Landslide Susceptibility Map of Canada Based on GIS . . . . . . . . . . 375
Marı́a José Domı́nguez-Cuesta and Peter T. Bobrowsky
Statistic Versus Deterministic Method for Landslide
Susceptibility Mapping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383
Iuliana Armas, Florica Stroia, and Laura Giurgea
Two Integrated Models Simulating Dynamic Process of
Landslide Using GIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 389
Chunxiang Wang, Hideaki Marui, Gen Furuya, and Naoki Watanabe
Using the Information System and Multi-Criteria Analysis in the Geological
Risk Management in São Paulo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397
Eliene Coelho and Luciana Pascarelli
Maps of Landslide Areas with Technical G.I.S.: The Use of High
Resolution DTM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403
Mauro Palombella
A New Digital Catalogue of Harmful Landslides and Floods in Italy . . . . . . . . 409
Paola Salvati, Ivan Marchesini, Vinicio Balducci, Cinzia Bianchi, and Fausto Guzzetti
Application of the Computerised Cartography to the Territory Management:
The Geomorphological Map of Palaeolandslides in the Velino River Valley
(Central Apennines, Italy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415
Serafino Angelini, Piero Farabollini, Riccardo Massimiliano Menotti,
Fabrizio Millesimi, and Marco Petitta
Contents xvii
Database of Unstable Rock Slopes of Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 423

Halvor Bunkholt, Bobo Nordahl, Reginald L. Hermanns, Thierry Oppikofer,
Luzia Fischer, Lars Harald Blikra, Einar Anda, Halgeir Dahle, and Stine Sætre
Landslides and Spatio-Temporal Processing of Geographical Information . . . 429
Raffaele De Amicis, Federico Prandi, Giuseppe Conti, Diego Taglioni,
Stefano Piffer, Marco Calderan, and Alberto Debiasi
Lahar, Floods and Debris Flows Resulting from the 2010 Eruption of
Eyjafjallajökull: Observations, Mapping, and Modelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 435
Esther H. Jensen, Jon Kr. Helgason, Sigurjón Einarsson, Gudrun Sverrisdottir,
Armann Höskuldsson, and Björn Oddsson
Part I
Advances in Slope Stability Modelling
Introduction by Ken Ho1, Filippo Catani2, Giulio Iovine3, and Alberto Ledesma4
1) Hong Kong Geotechnical office, Hong Kong, China
2) Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università degli Studi di Firenze,
Florence, Italy
3) CNR-IRPI – U.O.S. of Cosenza, Rende, Cosenza, Italy
4) University of Catalonia, UPC, Barcelona, Spain
Slope modelling traditionally refers to the analysis of detail-scale slope stability under known
specific boundary conditions. Many methods have been proposed and used in the last 30 years
to cope with the related problems and, lately, new numerical solutions have been developed to
improve our ability to model the behaviour of a given slope, both in two and three dimensions.
However, even more recently, new advances in constitutive models and computational
methods, software engineering, field and laboratory instrumentation, quantitative geomor-
phology and hydrology seem to have set the stage for a new breakthrough in slope modelling,
making it possible to positively face the challenge of going from slope-specific to basin-scale
analysis and from limited time frames (single event approach) to continuous, real-time
applications. Recent advances in slope modelling are not confined to analysis concerning
the conditions prior to the onset of landslides or complete detachment of ground mass, but also
the simulation of post-failure dynamics. Numerical models have evolved to assess the runout
of landslide debris, which have practical applications in hazard and risk assessment.
In this context, this chapter addresses a wide range of case studies and methodological
applications on landslide modelling offering an overview of actual issues worldwide.
Slope stability modelling issues are reported under both seismic (China, Japan) and pore
water pressure stresses (Brazil, Switzerland, Italy). Run-out modelling is also treated, with
examples in China for rock slides, Hong Kong and Italy for debris flows and Mexico for mud
flows. Some interesting case studies on landslide behaviour are also included, in Russia,
Croatia, Greece, Italy and Spain.
Besides, more theoretical studies are devoted to the hydrological and geotechnical
modelling for landslide stability, to the data retrieval on important slope stability parameters
using new methods (using TLS for rock falls, modelling for soil depth, specific new devices
for roughness), to rock fall modelling in Italy (Alps and the Carrara marble basins). A final
case on mitigation measures to cope with slope instability in Italy concludes the chapter.
Geomechanical Basis of Landslide Classification
and Modelling of Triggering
Gianfrancesco Rocchi and Giovanni Vaciago
Abstract
A proposal to supplement existing landslide classifications with a more detailed description
of the geomechanical characteristics of the materials to include the effects of “structure”,
stress history and initial state has been developed as part of the EC sponsored SafeLand
project. This approach provides a valuable insight into and a rational basis for the
modelling of the physical mechanisms that govern landslide triggering and subsequent
development. The classification, behaviour and modelling of saturated clays and sands is
summarized here. The use of advanced strain hardening plasticity models which, where
necessary, include progressive damage to the “structure” of the material helps to replicate
mechanical weathering, delayed failure and the triggering of flows or slides, depending on
the type of material. A numerical example is presented, illustrating the different response of
sensitive clays and mechanically overconsolidated clays to rapid erosion or excavation.
More details of the proposed geotechnical classification and other numerical examples may
be found in Deliverable 1.1 of the SafeLand project.
Keywords
Classification Clay Sand Modelling
(c) Pore water pressure, distinguishing between undrained,

Introduction drained and intermediate conditions.
A more comprehensive classification has been developed
Early classifications of landslides (Varnes 1978) were based in the 1990s, resulting in a 3D matrix (Fig. 1) which classifies
on geomorphological aspects, describing the types of landslides in terms of slope movement (geomorphological
movement in great detail, but typically relating them to classifications), movement stage (pre-failure, failure, post-
broad categories of geomaterials (“rock”, “debris”, “earth”). failure, reactivation) and materials, as described in Fig. 2.
These classifications have been progressively supplemented Figure 2 presents fairly broad categories of materials.
with additional details on the geotechnical characteristics of Soils are described mainly on the basis of their grain size
the geomaterials involved. This focused initially on (Carson distribution and degree of saturation, with only an ill-defined
1976; Hutchinson 1988): distinction between “soft” and “stiff” clays and no attention
(a) The control exerted by liquidity index on whether insta- paid to the density of coarse grained soils.
bility in clays occurs by flow or sliding; To refine the classification of materials and to provide
(b) “Soil fabric conditions”, distinguishing between first further insight into the factors which influence the triggering
time slides and slides on pre-existing shears surfaces; and subsequent development of landslides, Rocchi et al.
(2010) considered in greater detail the case of saturated soils
from the viewpoint of their mechanical characterization and
G. Rocchi (*) G. Vaciago constitutive modelling, taking into account the “structure” of
Studio Geotecnico Italiano, via G. Ripamonti 89, Milan 20141, Italy the material, its stress history and its initial state in terms of
e-mail: [email protected]
C. Margottini et al. (eds.), Landslide Science and Practice, Vol. 3, 3

DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-31310-3_1, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013
4 G. Rocchi and G. Vaciago
Proposed Amendment to the Classification

of Materials
It is widely recognized that the mechanical behaviour of

saturated clays and sands is controlled by:
– The combination of void ratio and effective stresses,
which define the “condition” of the material relative to
a “reference line”, i.e. the intrinsic compression line
(ICL, Burland 1990) for clays and the initial dividing
line (IDL, Ishihara 1993) for sands;
– The microstructure of the material.
Compared to the classification shown in Fig. 2, for
saturated sands and clays Rocchi et al. (2010) propose to
distinguish between clays (C) and sands (S) above (A), on
(O) or below (B) the “reference line”, as shown in Fig. 3,
where further distinctions are made between uncemented
Fig. 1 Schematic characterization of slope movements (Leroueil et al.
1996) (1) and cemented (2) and between fissured (F) and intact
(I) materials. Select cases are described below, using also the
terminology proposed by Nagaraj and Miura (2001).
CA: Clays with Initial States Above the ICL:

Naturally Cemented Clays
With reference to the framework proposed by Jardine et al.

(1991), these materials have the following characteristics
(Fig. 4):
– Limit State Surfaces (LSS) for natural and reconstituted
materials. The LSS representing the “gross yield” of the
natural material, is outside that of reconstituted material
and is strain rate dependent.
– Zones around the point representing the initial effective
Fig. 2 Material types considered in the geotechnical characterization stress state within which the behaviour is linear elastic
of slope movements (Leroueil 2001) (Zone 1) and non-linear elastic (Zone 2).
– Outside Zone 2, even within the LSS of the natural
void ratio and effective geostatic stresses. They also addressed material, generation of destruction processes with
rocks and complex formations, but these materials are not associated irreversible visco-plastic strains and strain
considered here due to space limitations. rate dependent behaviour. The outer boundary of Zone
In association with the use of advanced strain hardening 2 represents the “true yield” of the natural material. The
plasticity models, which include, where necessary, progres- volumetric component of the visco-plastic strains for
sive damage to the “structure” of the material, this approach states outside the LSS of the reconstituted material results
provides a rational basis for finite element (FEM) analyses of in contractant behaviour (i.e. reduction in void ratio or
landslide triggering which correctly predict mechanical development of positive excess pore pressure in drained
weathering, delayed failure and whether landslides will or undrained conditions respectively).
take the form of flows or slides, depending on the type of – Destruction process and associated visco-plastic strains
material. Whilst this approach may involve some idealiza- take place in the pre-failure stage up to failure. Additional
tion compared to the complexity and heterogeneity of remoulding energy is delivered to the material in the post-
landslides, it is certainly a powerful tool, which overcomes failure (propagation) stage. As a result, the LSS of the
the gross simplification inherent in limit equilibrium (LEM) natural material shrinks, leading to conditions which may
methods of analysis. be governed by the behaviour of the reconstituted
Geomechanical Basis of Landslide Classification and Modelling of Triggering 5
Fig. 3 Revised classification of material types for the geotechnical characterization of slope movements (Rocchi et al. 2010)
material where all the microstructure has been removed. sufficient information to distinguish this type of clays
In undrained conditions, the destruction processes may and their associated behaviour from other types of clays.
lead to a substantial reduction of undrained shear For this reason these clays need to be classified also in
strengths. In the extreme case represented by “quick terms of “sensitivity”, commonly defined as the ratio of the
clays”, the remoulded material may behave as a fluid, undisturbed to the remoulded undrained shear strength, as
making these clays particularly susceptible to dramatic determined for example by in situ vane tests.
failure (Tavenas et al. 1971). Considering typical failure
and post-failure conditions and mechanisms, residual
effective strength envelopes are of secondary significance CB: Clays with Initial States Below the ICL:
in these materials. Mechanically Overconsolidated Clays
In oedometric conditions the preconsolidation pressure
0
s vp is due primarily, if not exclusively, to bonding, rather Clays with initial states below the ICL can be either without
than mechanical preconsolidation. It is thus better referred to (type CB1) or with (type CB2) bonding; their microstructure
as “apparent” preconsolidation pressure. It is strain rate is stable at the initial stress state in situ irrespective of the
dependent and does not reflect the “true yield” s0 vy of the presence of bonding. In their natural state type CB1
natural material, which is significantly lower than s0 vp materials have the following characteristics (Fig. 5):
(Fig. 4, Bjerrum 1967; Larsson et al. 1977). At extremely – LSS practically coincident with that characteristic of the
slow strain rates, for “ideal” truly undisturbed samples s0 vp reconstituted material.
reduces to s0 vy. – Zones around the point representing the initial effective
The behaviour of these materials can be reproduced stress state within which the behaviour is linear elastic
realistically only by means of elasto-viscoplastic constitu- (Zone 1) and non-linear elastic (Zone 2).
tive models which simulate appropriately in the time domain – Outside zone 2 up to and on the LSS, mainly plastic
the effects of progressive destruction of the microstructure behaviour. For all practical purposes visco-plastic strains
(see for example Adachi et al. 1996; Rocchi et al. 2003; and strain rate dependency can be considered negligible.
Hinchberger and Qu 2009). The volumetric component of the plastic strains result in a
In relation to the overburden and degree of bonding, these moderately contractive or dilatant behaviour depending
clays may appear either as ‘soft clays’ or as ‘stiff/hard clays’ on the distance of the current state from the ICL. The
as defined by common classifications. The use of this behaviour becomes progressively more dilatant as this
terminology in the classification of Fig. 2 does not convey distance increases, implying a greater development of
Fig. 4 Basic elements of clay behaviour – Material type CA

(Rocchi et al. 2010)
Fig. 5 Basic elements of clay behaviour – Material type CB1
(Rocchi et al. 2010)
negative excess pore pressures or a greater drop in resis-
tance from peak to critical state in undrained and drained The behaviour of these materials can be replicated by
conditions respectively. Under certain circumstances, elasto-plastic constitutive models with volumetric and kine-
governed essentially by clay content, activity, water matic hardening capable of reproducing non-linearity also
chemistry and effective confining pressure, a significant inside the LSS (see for example Al-Tabbaa and Wood 1989;
reduction of the effective strength envelope may occur Stallebrass and Taylor 1997).
from critical state to ‘residual’ in the more highly sheared
zones (Skempton 1985).
Conventional vertical preconsolidation pressure s0 vp as SA and SB: Sands Above and Below the Initial
typically determined from oedometer tests is practically Dividing Line
linked only to mechanical pre-compression; in heavily
mechanically overconsolidated clays, s0 vp is not necessarily A summary of the extensive technical literature describing
equal to the maximum vertical effective stress s0 vmax expe- the essential aspects of the behaviour of sands is presented
rienced by the deposit; plastic strains during drained by Rocchi et al. (2010) with reference to the meaning of
unloading may cause a partial loss of “memory” (Calabresi Steady State (SS), Compression Lines, Phase Transforma-
and Scarpelli 1985). tion (PT), Quasi Steady State (QSS) Initial Dividing Line
(IDL) and Collapse or Instability Surface (CS or IS), as

relevant for the behaviour of these materials in landslides.
From conventional undrained triaxial tests carried out on
specimens prepared at different void ratios (ec) with differ-
ent mean effective consolidation pressures (p0 c) it is possible
to distinguish between two classes of initial states (ec; p0 c)
where a temporary drop in shear stresses can or cannot occur
(Ishihara 1993).
The IDL can be drawn through the data points separating
the initial states with and without the occurrence of mini-
mum strength. By definition, only the materials with initial
states located above the IDL may be susceptible to initia-
tion of flow instability. These materials are identified as
type SA, while those whose initial states are located below Fig. 6 Numerically simulated mid-slope horizontal displacements as a
the IDL and are thus not susceptible to flow are identified as function of time since excavation of a 1(v): 3(h), 10 m high slope for
CA and CB1 clays (Rocchi et al. 2010)
SB.
The proposed classification focuses on the susceptibility
to flow because this is the most significant aspect of the The clay materials CA below the clayey “crust” have
behaviour of sands in the context of landslides. been simulated by the elasto-viscoplastic model initially
The simulation of the main aspects of the behaviour of developed by Rocchi et al. (2003) as updated by Rocchi
sands, including non linear behaviour, shear-induced plas- et al. (2006).
tic volumetric strains (dilation/contraction), strain soften- Figure 6 shows the mid-slope horizontal displacement for
ing/hardening, etc., may be attempted by adopting the two cases considered as a function of time. Failure
advanced plasticity models consistent with the framework conditions are reached at considerably different times, i.e.
of Critical State Soil Mechanics (Wood 1990), including 10 days for CA clays and approximately 70 years for CB1
also: clays. While in CB1 materials shear plastic strains tend to
– Non-associative flow rules; localize in a unique, relatively narrow shear band, in CA
– The state parameter as an essential variable to describe materials multiple shear bands and/or diffused failure
the current state of the material compared to the SS or conditions are observed which reach greater depths than in
other characteristic states (Li and Dafalias 2000; Jefferies CB1 materials.
and Been 2006). Figure 7 compares the excess pore pressures (suction
positive, as per definitions in the computer code) at
10 days after excavation, corresponding to failure conditions
Numerical Example: CA Versus CB1 Clays for materials type CA. The excess pore pressure distributions
in the two cases are very different; while in CB1 materials
A numerical example is presented here to illustrate the poten- they correspond essentially to the distribution of negative
tial of the proposed geotechnical classification of materials in excess pore ressures induced by undrained unloading, in CA
explaining the fundamentally different behaviour of sensitive materials the excess pore pressures are generally low,
clays compared to mechanically overconsolidated clays. appearing to correspond to complete dissipation to the
More details on this and other examples replicating mechani- steady state conditions. In fact, localized positive excess
cal weathering, delayed failure and formation of “badlands” pore pressures near the multiple shear bands confirm that
in mechanically overconsolidated clays and flow failures in shear induced positive excess pore pressures have
loose sands are discussed by Rocchi et al. (2010). compensated and locally exceeded the negative excess
Let us consider two 10 m high slopes inclined 1 (vertical): pore pressures induced by the reduction of mean total stress
3 (horizontal), one excavated in clayey materials CB1 by undrained unloading, and that this mechanism prevails,
(mechanically overconsolidated, unbonded) and the other rather than consolidation.
in clayey materials CA (metastable microstructure, bonded) In the simpler case represented by rapid cuts or basal
with a 3 m “crust” of CB1 material. erosion the time necessary to reach pore pressure equilib-
The behaviour of the CB1 clay is simulated by an elasto- rium is strictly related to:
plastic constitutive model of the CAM-CLAY family, – Deformability characteristics of the clay which govern
modified to include both generalized plasticity within the both the amount and sign of the excess pore pressure
Intrinsic State Boundary Surface and variation of the and the overall behaviour in the pre-failure and possibly
strength parameter M with the Lode angle (y). failure stages;
where
Dsi ¼ changes of total principal stress
a, b ¼ excess pore pressure parameters
In rapid excavation (artificial or natural), there is a
decrease in pore pressure (development of negative excess
pore pressure) associated with a reduction in mean total
stresses (Leroueil 2001).
In heavily overconsolidated clays of the type CB,
the parameter a is negative and the shear stresses
generate additional negative excess pore pressure in
such a way that the difference in pore pressure between
the end of excavation and the steady state condition is
significant.
On the other hand, in clays of the type CA the parameter a
is positive and the shear stresses generate positive excess
pore pressure, compensating to some extent the negative
excess pore pressure due to the change in mean total stresses.
In these conditions, the resulting overall changes in pore
pressure due to excavation can be quite small and dissipate
quickly.
Back analyses of the pore pressure variation with time
such as those reported in Laflamme and Leroueil (1999),
where the excavation at Saint Hilaire has been simulated by
finite element analyses assuming linear elasticity (a ¼ 0),
result in the need to assign unnecessarily high values of
stiffness to the soil to match the observed rapid equilibration
of excess pore pressures.
This example shows how the use of appropriate constitu-
tive models in numerical FEM analyses is sufficient to
replicate realistically the overall behaviour of the two
Fig. 7 Numerically simulated distributions of excess pore pressures clays, including the pore pressure responses.
for a 1(v): 3(h), 10 m high slope at 10 days in (a) CA clays (Ko ¼ 0.6)
and (b) CB1 clays (Ko ¼ 1) (Rocchi et al. 2010) Conclusions
The classification of materials described here, based on
relating the combination of void ratio and effective
– Permeability characteristics of the clay which may vary geostatic stresses of saturated soils to “reference
with time as a consequence of variation of void ratio; conditions”, provides a rational basis for refining land-
– Geometry of the slope (height and inclination). slide predictions, associating the type of movement that
The very short time necessary to reach pore pressure can be expected to the classification of the soils involved.
equilibrium observed in material type CA compared to that In association with advanced constitutive and
necessary to reach similar conditions in material type CB1 numerical modelling, for the given boundary conditions,
can be well understood in the light of the general behaviour this approach can provide quantitative predictions of the
described above for the different materials and of the triggering and subsequent development of landslides,
following relationship proposed by Henkel (1960) for overcoming the limitations of LEM methods of analysis.
determining initial excess pore pressure (Du) as a function
of stress changes:
Acknowledgments The work summarized here was carried out as
part of the SafeLand project, funded by the EC 7th Framework
Ds1 þ Ds2 þ Ds3 Programme (Grant Agreement No. 226479). The Authors are grateful
Du ¼ b þa
3 to colleagues and partners in the Project for valuable discussion. The
qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi numerical models were developed with the assistance of Ing.
ðDs1 Ds2 Þ2 þ ðDs2 Ds3 Þ2 þ ðDs31 Ds1 Þ2 Maurizio Fontana of Autosoft, whose contribution is gratefully
acknowledged.
Quebec. Report GCT-99-10 prepared for the Ministére des Transports

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Study of Shock Landslide-Type Geomechanical
Model Test for Consequent Rock Slope
Xu Xiangning, Chen Yuliang, and Li Shengwen
Abstract
Mountain deformation and fracture as a result of earthquakes is a complicated
evolution process. We need to take advantage of geomechanical simulation and
shock effects to reproduce the mountain deformation process based on the understand-
ing and conceptual model through geological analysis, in order to verify and disclose
the facts. The author has chosen a certain typical landslide-type geomechanical model
of consequent rock slope under earthquake effect, and carried out the simulation
testing study for the geomechanical mechanism under the vibration conditions. This
paper introduces the methods of model preparation, the test plan design and testing
methods, and studies the testing results, from the vibration trace and deformation and
fracture evolution process, deformation and fracture evolutionary process and vibra-
tion acceleration time-history changes, vibration intensity and deformation and frac-
ture evolution of different geological structures, so some useful results and new
knowledge are reported.
Keywords
Vibration test Geomechanical simulation mechanism Shock landslide-type
geomechanical model for rock slopes dip toward excavation Deformation and fracture
evolution of mountains
Introduction dip toward excavation of Diexi Jiaochang of Diexi Seismic

Area in Sichuan in 1933, Yiwanshui Landslide in Longling
Destabilization is likely to happen to the gently titled external Seismic Area in Yunnan in 1976, some consequent slope at
stratified slope, medium titled external or consequent slope Jueta Mountain of Caoling and Kandou Mountain of
with changeable angle, with the deformation and fracture Niufen’er Mountain after the Taiwan jiji Earthquake in
mechanical mechanism generally as sliding-rip type and 1999, as well as landslide in Jiazi Village of Baishui,
sliding-bending type, and destruction instability mode gen- Hetaoyuan Landslide in Hudiaoxia, Bendiwan Landslide
erally as consequent slope, consequent-tangential slope or and Wenziping Landslide in Lijiang Seismic Area in Yunnan
rotating landslide, such as the typical front edge of rock slop in 1996, etc. (Wang Lansheng et al. 2000; Wang Sijing
1987). In the Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan on May 12,
2008, such series of landslides occurred at the seismic zones,
X. Xiangning (*) L. Shengwen such as Daguangbao Massive Landslide in Anxian County
Chengdu Center of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology of Sichuan
Provincial Geology and Mineral Resources Bureau, Chengdu, Sichuan
(see Fig. 1), Tangjiashan Landslide in Beichuan, Donghekou
610081, China Landslide in Qingchuan, Magongwoqian Landslide,
e-mail: [email protected] Shibangou Landslide, Niujuangou Landslide in Yingxiu of
C. Yuliang Wenchuan, Hongchungou H5 Landslide, Shaofanggou
Institute of Geological Surveying of Sichuan Provincial, Chengdu, Landslide, Wenjiagou Landslide in Mianzhu, etc.
Sichuan 610081, China

12 X. Xiangning et al.
Fig. 1 Profile of Diexi Jiaochang landslide induced in 1933s earthquake
Fig. 2 Profile of Daguangbao landslide induced in 2008s earthquake
bonded by clay, with gradient of 50–60 (see Pictures 1

Test Model and Test Plan and 2). The unit weight, modulus of elasticity, modulus of
deformation, Poisson ratio, shearing strength and other phy-
Model Preparation sical and mechanical indexes of the blocks basically meet
the requirements. See Table 1 for the model parameters. The
Diexi Jiaochang Landslide and Daguangbao Consequent Slope base is a 10–40 slope of barite powder.
in Anxian are taken as the reference (Figs. 1 and 2). Based on the The model is 45 cm long, 38 cm high and 40 cm wide in
similarity theory, the geometric similarities between the model size, with scale of 1:1,000. The weight of the model shall be
and reference, distribution of hard and soft rock mass, difference controlled between 230 and 250 kg.
of parameters are factored into the model. The model is directly made within the model cabinet of
The model shall be staked by 5 cm long, 5 cm wide and the vibrating table, with one model of the same size on the
5 cm thick sandstone blocks at an angle of 10–40 of the left and right sides and one 10 cm wide channel in the middle
stratum for different testing plans. The rock blocks shall be (see Pictures 1 and 2).
Study of Shock Landslide-Type Geomechanical Model Test for Consequent Rock Slope 13
Table 1 Model material parameter table

Sandstone Clay
Density Deformation modulus Density C
(g/cm3) (104 MPa) (g/cm3) (kpa) f( )
2.68 0.95 2.7 40~60 6~13
2. The vibration amplitude, trace, dip of stratum, gradient of

slope surface, bonding strength as well as initial vibration
direction are changed, and the fracture process shall be
observed and recorded. The digital camera and video
camera shall be used for recording before, during and
after each vibration, respectively.
Picture 1 Model of block structure of bonding by the clay Analysis of Testing Results
Analysis of Vibration Trace and Deformation

and Fracture Evolution Process
According to the images collected by the video camera

during the test, the motion trace of the vibrating table shall
be drawn (as shown in Fig. 3a), and the relationship between
the appearance, evolution and vibration trace status shall be
observed during the vibration (as shown in Fig. 3a, b).
Moreover, the displacement curves of a certain deformation
and fracture characteristic point of the model shall be drawn
(as shown in Fig. 3c).
Take the consequent slope model vibration instability
evolution process with the stratum dip of 30 and gradient
of 60 as an example. The amplitude is 5 cm, and the elliptic
vibration trace is shown in the chart. The points A1–A3 are
Picture 2 Model of slop dip toward excavation
deformation and fracture deflection points, the
corresponding deformation and fracture status is shown in
Fig. 3b, and the movement displacement curve of the
Test Purpose and Plan corresponding deformation fracture point is shown in Fig. 3c.
Figure 3 shows that the deformation and fracture of the
In the testing design, the geological background, the rock mountain generally appeared at the deflection point of the
mass medium characteristics and structure characteristics of vibration movement trace, i.e. deflection point of changing
the reference model is analyzed in order to study the forms the movement direction. As seen from the trace image and
and characteristics of seismic force deformation and destruc- deformation sign, when the motion direction of the vibrating
tion of mountains with synthetic structure. The specific test table changes to the rightward movement from leftward, the
purpose and plan are as follows: inertia force of the model movement is generally identical
1. The mode, process and regularity of the deformation and with the free surface direction as it is opposite the model
fracture of stratified rock mass under the earthquake movement direction, which may trigger the sliding-rupture
effects shall be observed and understood throughout the deformation and fracture. And when the movement acceler-
whole process, particularly the deformation and destruc- ation direction is changed from upward to downward move-
tion extent, and earthquake acceleration, vibration fre- ment, the vertical restricted strength of the rock masses is
quency, the rock mass structure surface distribution reduced under the reduced gravity, which facilitates the
features, bonding force between layers and relativity of tension of structural surface and rock mass displacement,
slope dip. so that the rock blocks with smaller strength will be likely to
B Deformation and fracture process chart

Two apparent cracks
A0
A2 Complete collapse
A3
A0 moment
A1
a Vibration trace
A1 moment, sliding-rupture deformation and fracture appears

Displacement
cm
10
Displacement 5cm
5
A2 moment, sliding-rupture deformation and fracture is maximized
Complete collapse
A0 A1 A2 A3 Trace
C Trace-displacement curve
A3 moment
Fig. 3 Contrast diagram of shock instability evolution process for consequent slope model
separate from the intact mass, and sliding-rupture deforma- the stratum structure rocky slope produces only overall
tion, facture or instability will be caused, and trigger effects vibration, without noticeable damages. For the consequent
will come out. When the displacement is accumulated to a slope, when the vibration level acceleration is greater than
certain critical value, a certain through face will be formed, 0.4 g (equivalent to the design basic earthquake acceleration
and landslide will be caused. value at the seismic intensity of Magnitude 9), deformation
The test also shows that the vibration of the elliptic orbit and fracture will begin to appear and the extent of damage is
has greatest impact on the slope deformation and fracture, associated with amplitude, the initial motion direction,
followed by horizontal vibration trace and inclined vibration vibration trace, rock structural strength and other factors.
trace. The vertical vibration trace has no obvious deforma- The damage extent deteriorates gradually with the increase
tion or fracture. Generally, the damage and instability in the vibration acceleration. As the vibration level acceler-
appears in the 2nd or 3rd recycle movement, and that is to ation is close to 0.8 g (equivalent to the design basic earth-
say, the damage and instability movement of the first deflec- quake acceleration value at the seismic intensity of
tion point after the first peak acceleration and a circulation Magnitude 10), the consequent slope will show the extensive
direction changes will stop after the 4th to 6th movement overall instability. The shear-tension and pull-tension will
cycle trace. further extend to a deep extent, and the layers become
staggered and displaced obviously, which is mainly
represented by sliding-rupture deformation and cracking,
Analysis of Deformation and Fracture and the slope with low structural strength will cause land-
Evolutionary Process and Vibration Acceleration slide (see Picture 3). The slope with strong rock mass struc-
Time-History Variance ture strength will be subject to milder damages, but it will
cause deep shear-tension and pull-tension fractures (see
Comparing the deformation and fracture process and vibra- Picture 4) and some interlayer displacement or sliding.
tion trace with acceleration time-history, the results show The deformation and fracture process also shows that
that when the vibration level acceleration is less than 0.4 g, when rock structure of the model has certain bonding
Study of Shock Landslide-Type Geomechanical Model Test for Consequent Rock Slope 15
Picture 3 Third level sliding face destabilization occurs on the conse- Picture 5 Polished surface and scrapes cinch marks clearly shown on
quent slope the top slickenside
Picture 6 Gliding or tension crack and fracture of consequent slope
Picture 4 Tension crack and sinking zone occur at the trailing edge of
the consequent slope
Analysis of Vibration Intensity and Deformation
and Fracture Evolution of Different Geological
strength, only deformation fracture accumulated displace- Structures of the Mountain
ment is produced in the 1st peak acceleration of the vibration
acceleration time-history process, and pull-tension and The above test results show that:
shear-tension cracks (see Picture 4) will appear. When the 1. Relationship with amplitude, the pull-tension cracks occur
displacement is accumulated to a certain level, once again, in the slope and back edge at the horizontal amplitude of
the direction of the acceleration changes from up to down 2.5 cm. When the horizontal level is 3.5 cm, obviously
and instability damage will be generated. pull-tension and shear-tension cracks will occur (see Pic-
In a vibration, deformation and fracture extent of the ture 4), and apparent tension cracks and settlement zones
mountain is proportional to vibration duration. The occur at the back (see Picture 5). When the horizontal
accumulated displacement of the mountain deformation amplitude is 5 cm, shear-tension and pull-tension cracks
and fracture displacement is also proportional to the vibra- extend to the deep extent, the layers become staggered and
tion duration, i.e. the longer the vibration is, the larger the displaced obviously, and sliding-rupture deformation and
generated displacement will be, and thus sliding damage will cracking will occur (see Picture 6). The slopes with small
be likely to occur to the rock masses of the slope. structural strength will be causing the landslide.
2. Compared with the relationship of initial motion orienta- 4. The steeper the outward tilted dip of the stratum, the more
tion, both in consequent slope and countertendency slope, obvious sliding-rupture deformation and fracture will be,
the indication and extent of deformation and fracture in and the starting acceleration will be small.
right side slope are singly than left side (see Picture 3).
Generally, the right side slope becomes unstable while the
left slope is only subject to slope deformation and fracture.
References
3. The deformation and fracture of the inclined external
stratified slope is controlled by the structural surface, Wang Lansheng, Li Tianbin et al (2000) Landslide and environmental
which will cause serious shear-tension and pull-tension protection of Diexi Jiaochang earthquake for Minjiang river in
cracks at the moment of vibration starting and gradually Sichuan. Geol Hazard Environ Prot 11(3)
Wang Sijing (1987) Dynamic stability study for slope rock masses.
extend to the deep extent (see Picture 4). Meanwhile,
Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of
layers become staggered and cause accumulated dis- Sciences. Geomechanical issues of rock engineering, vol 2. Science
placement, which shows obvious sliding-rupture fracture Publishing House, Beijing
and becomes unstable as a result of landslides.
Landslide Processes in the Urbanized Moscow Area
Valentina Svalova
Abstract
Landslides process is one of the most widespread and dangerous processes in the urbanized
territories. In Moscow the landslips occupy about 3 % of the most valuable territory of the
city. In Russia many towns are located near rivers on high coastal sides. There are many
churches and historical buildings on high costs of Volga River and Moscow River. The
organization of monitoring is necessary for maintenance of normal functioning of city
infrastructure in a coastal zone and duly realization of effective protective actions. Last
years the landslide process activization took place in Moscow.
Keywords
Landslides Activization Monitoring
Introduction Another landslide site is in a southeast part of Moscow

near museum – reserve “Kolomenskoye”(Figs. 7, 8, and 9).
Landslide motions is extremely actual and difficult problem Last serious activization of a landslide has taken place there
which decision is necessary for preservation of valuable in 2002.
historical monuments and modern city constructions. Catastrophic activization of the deep blockglide landslide
There are near 15 places of deep landslides and many in the area of Khoroshevo on the left-hand shore of the
shallow landslides in Moscow (Fig. 1). Moskva River at Karamyshevskaya enbankment took place
One of landslide sites is on Vorob’yovy mountains, on a in 2006–2007.
high slope of the right coast of the river Moscow. Within the Deep landslide activization was in Moskvorechye area in
limits of a considered site there is a historical monument of September 2009.
federal value – “Andreevsky monastery”, based in 1648 Such complicated situation demands development of
(Figs. 2, 3, and 4). new investigations of landslide prone zones (Osipov et al.
Also there the complex of buildings of Presidium of the 2002; Kutepov et al. 2002; Postoev and Svalova 2005;
Russian Academy of Sciences, constructed in 70–80th years Svalova and Postoev 2008).
of twentieth century (Fig. 4), bridge with station of under-
ground “Vorob’yovy mountains” and a sports complex are Conclusions
located. Landslide slope (Fig. 5) is in an active condition. In Landslides process is one of the most widespread and
June 2007 a rather big landslide took place there near ski- dangerous processes in the urbanized territories. The
jump (Fig. 6). landslide process activization took place in Moscow
last years. Such complicated situation demands develop-
ment of new investigations of landslide prone zones.
V. Svalova (*)
Institute of Environmental Geoscience RAS, Ulansky per., 13, Moscow
101000, Russia

18 V. Svalova
Fig. 1 Landslides danger places in Moscow (in red) Fig. 3 Andreevsky monastery and new buildings on landslide slope
Fig. 2 Vorob’yovy mountains. Landslide slope Fig. 4 Presidium of RAS, Andreevsky monastery and new buildings
on landslide slope
Landslide Processes in the Urbanized Moscow Area 19
f II
gII 160
K1a
140
K1g
120
dpIV J3v3
J3v2
100
J3ox
J3k 80
C
0
300 200 100
Fig. 5 Schematic cross-section of landslide slope at Vorob’yovy mountains
Fig. 6 Place of landslide activization near ski jump
Fig. 7 Museum – reserve “Kolomenskoye”. Common view. Landslide

slope
20 V. Svalova
Fig. 9 Deep blockglide landslide. Moscow, Kolomenskoye. N.1, N.2,

N.3 – extensometers, inclinometers
References
Kutepov VM, Sheko AI, Anisimova NG, Burova VN, Victorov AS
et al (2002) Natural hazards in Russia. Exogenous geological
hazards. KRUK, Moscow, 345p
Osipov VI, Shojgu SK, Vladimirov VA, Vorobjev Yu L, Avdod’in VP
et al (2002) Natural hazards in Russia. Natural hazards and society.
KRUK, Moscow, 245p
Postoev GP, Svalova VB (2005) Landslides risk reduction and
monitoring for urban territories in Russia. In: Proceedings of the
first general assembly of ICL (International Consortium on
Landslides) “Landslides: risk analysis and sustainable disaster
Fig. 8 Museum – reserve “Kolomenskoye”. The church of beheading management”. Springer, Washington, DC, pp 297–303
of the honest head of Iowan Predecessor Svalova V, Postoev G (2008) Landslide process activization on sites of
cultural heritage in Moscow, Russia. In: Proceedings of the first
world landslide forum 2008. United Nations University, Tokyo, 4p
Landslide Hazard Assessment Based on
FS3D Combined with an Infiltration Model
Aline Silva and Lázaro Zuquette
Abstract
Studies assessing landslide hazards have become increasingly common in recent years.
They provide information that guides decision-making and the adoption of preventive and
mitigation measures for control and protection. The aim of this study was to develop a set of
procedures for the prediction of landslides from the results of geotechnical mapping at
scales larger than 1:10,000. A methodology based on geotechnical parameters using the
calculation of three-dimensional (3D) safety factor combined with an infiltration model it
was developed. This set of procedures was applied to pre-defined areas in the city of
Campos do Jordão, SP, Brazil. These areas were chosen based on geomorphic variability of
geological materials and size criteria. The results from these areas are very promising and
reflect the geological, geotechnical and hydrogeological conditions in each area.
Keywords
Landslide Hazard Three-dimensional safety factor Infiltration model Campos do
Jordão Brazil
Introduction necessary information about the susceptibility (where), the

probability (when) and the intensity (how big) of the event.
Natural and human-induced geological processes have In this study, a methodology based on geotechnical
increased in frequency and magnitude over recent decades parameters using the calculation of three-dimensional (3D)
around the world, with a concomitant exponential increase in safety factor combined with an infiltration model it was
forecast studies (e.g., Varnes 1984; Hutchinson 1992; Aleotti developed. This study is justified by the scientific attempt
and Chowdhury 1999; Chacón et al. 2006). Even with these to establish a set of procedures that enable the prediction of
advances, the hazard or risk maps available at most scales in landslides using geotechnical maps at scales greater than
Brazil show just a content of susceptibility. There are different 1:10,000. The set of procedures combines a column-based
levels of studies for the classification and evaluation of natural 3D slope-stability analysis model with the infiltration
processes such as landslides, ranging from inventory studies conditions that are induced by a particular rainfall event
of the process to management of the risk. Hazard assessment considering the intensity and duration of the rainfall. The
represents an intermediate level of study. According to Varnes probability of occurrence was calculated for each rainfall
(1984) hazard is the probability of a potentially damaging event studied for the next 1, 5 and 10 years.
phenomenon occurring in a given area in a given period of
time, which means that a landslide hazard assessment includes
Methodology
A. Silva (*) L. Zuquette
The first procedure is the basic characterization of the area,
School of Engineering of São Carlos, University of São Paulo,
Av. Trabalhador São-Carlense, 400, São Carlos, Brazil the consolidation of necessary information, such as a topo-
e-mail: [email protected] graphic map (with 1-m contour lines), a slope map, an aspect

22 A. Silva and L. Zuquette
map and the basic characterization of unconsolidated mate- The 3D safety factor is calculated based on the cohesion
rial, including a map of unconsolidated material, the index of and the friction angle of the rupture surface depth. We
physical data, hydrological characterization and the resis- determined the correlation between the maximum and mini-
tance parameters for each material. mum values of these parameters in relation to the degree of
With this information, the potential rupture surfaces are saturation (Sr) of the point in question (the desired depth).
defined mainly based on the geomorphic features of the area With the volumetric moisture value at depth z – y (z)
(type of slope, declivity and direction of the strands), the and with the porosity (n) of the respective unconsolidated
variability of unconsolidated material and the size of the material, we obtained the saturation at a given depth with
area. correlations among the physical indices.
An analysis of the rainfall data is carried out indepen- The last step before calculating the FS3D is the definition
dently. The quality of pluviometric data is also crucial of grid sizes for the selected areas. Because the initial 3D
because, in addition to the duration and amount of total safety factor analysis is in conducted by columns, the area
precipitation of the rain events, information regarding the must be divided into regular grids to complete the calcula-
behaviour of rain throughout the event is necessary. The tion. Based on the area size, the volume of necessary infor-
chosen pluviometric events are used as input data in the mation and the feasibility of the calculation, it was
infiltration model in the next step, and the likelihood of determined that the grid should be 10 m wide or 100 m2 in
similar event(s) occurring over time is calculated. The prob- surface area.
ability distribution used is the Poisson distribution with T1 The three-dimensional analysis model of slope stability
representing the time of recurrence of the desired event, as adopted in this work is that proposed by Hovland (1977),
expressed by the following equation: modified by Xie et al. (2003) and again adapted by Silva
(2009). Equation 2 shows the calculation of the FS3D by
FT1 ðtÞ ¼ PðT1 tÞ ¼ 1 evt (1) Silva (2009) used in this work.
P P
Where, t ¼ time; v ¼ average rate of occurrence; and e ¼ cA þ g Zij zij þ ðgM gi Þ Zij zij a2 cosatanf
FS3D ¼ I
PJ P i
Neperian base. The average rate of occurrence is simply the J gi Zij zij þ ðgM gi Þ Zij zij a sinaP
2
I
ratio between the number of events and the time frame (2)
considered.
Once information about selected rain events is gathered, where FS3D ¼ 3D Safety Factor; c ¼ total cohesion (kN/
the infiltration model can be initiated. The influence of rain m2); A ¼ area of the rupture surface (m2); Zji ¼ ground
on landslides is known and has been observed in numerous surface elevation (m); zji ¼ elevation of the rupture surface
studies (e.g., Gasmo et al. 2000; Wilkinson et al. 2002). (m); gM ¼ average specific weight of the soil (kN/m3); gi ¼
Studies on shallow landslides show that they are the result initial specific weight of the soil (kN/m3); a ¼ grid size (m);
of water infiltration into the geological material. Thus, in a ¼ dip angle of the rupture surface ( ); f ¼ angle of total
predicting slope stability, conceptual and physical models friction ( ); aP ¼ dip angle of the main landslide direction
must be considered that simulate the hydro-geological and ( ); and J and I ¼ the total rows and columns in the interval
the geotechnical transients responsible for their stability. of the rupture area, respectively.
The infiltration model in this study aims to determine volu-
metric moisture: the average volumetric moisture (yM) of the
soil profile and the desired volumetric moisture at a specific
depth (y (z)), after a rain event. To meet these objectives, the Application in Campos do Jordão, SP, Brazil
HYDRUS 1D version 3.0 program was used (Simunek et al.
2005). In Brazil, the increasing incidence of natural disasters, espe-
The HYDRUS 1D model is a finite-element numerical cially shallow landslides and floods, is considered to be due to
model for the unidirectional simulation of water, heat and the intense urbanization processes occurring in the country in
multiple solutes flowing in a saturated or unsaturated condi- recent decades, with the unplanned growth of cities in areas
tion. The program numerically solves the Richards equation unsuitable for occupancy because of unfavourable geological
for the variable flow of water in soil and the advection and and geomorphological characteristics. The city of Campos do
the dispersion equations for heat and the transport of solutes. Jordão in the state of São Paulo is located in Serra da
Based on the average volumetric moisture data, yM, Mantiqueira. This area was selected for the present study
obtained in the previous step and the dry unit weight (gd) because of the history of landslide incidents and the need for
and specific weight of water (gw) for each unconsolidated data from an engineering geological map at a 1:2,000 scale
material, the corresponding average specific weight is (Ahrendt 2005) (Fig. 1). The area ranges across UTM 23 K
obtained from correlations of the physical indices to calcu- coordinates 438.010/438.330 W and 7.485.390/7.485.110 S
late the 3D safety factor. and covers approximately 90,000 m2. The results for four
Landslide Hazard Assessment Based on FS3D Combined with an Infiltration Model 23
–66° –54° has slope angles of approximately 30 with a maximum of

42 because of the narrow valley; the average slope angle of
–48°
–42°
0°
–20° this area is 25 . This area can be classified as linear-concave
–8°
SP
(LC).
–16°
In these four areas, there are seven different types of
–24°
–24° unconsolidated material differentiated according to their
–32° origin and composition, with each type possessing particular
characteristics. Information regarding these unconsolidated
438050 438100 438150 438200 438250 438300 materials and their spatial distributions was published by
Ahrendt (2005). The unconsolidated residual materials
were classified as residuals of alteration (IR and II-R) and
7485350
saprolites (III-S, IV-S and V-S). Two main types of uncon-
solidated landfill materials, known as VI-A and VII-A, and
A B 7485300 one type of alluvial material (VIII-T) were defined. From the
stratigraphic arrangement of the unconsolidated material,
typical profiles were established that are common to the
7485250
area. Data on physical indices, strength parameters, the
Van Genuchten parameters referring to each unconsolidated
C
material, and the map of unconsolidated material units were
7485200
D compiled from the data published by Ahrendt (2005). The
data used in this study are shown in Table 1.
7485150 The pluviometric data used in this study are from 1975 to
2001, including records with up to 5 min intervals. In this
study, we selected three rainfall events. One event is of long
duration with low intensity, and the other two are short
Fig. 1 Location of the study areas in the city of Campos do Jordão, events, one with moderate and one with high intensity.
SP, Brazil
The first event occurred on October 13–14 of 1995, lasted
27 h and had a total rainfall of 149.7 mm. The second event
of the slopes that were studied are presented as areas A, B, C occurred on January 25 of 2000, with 23 mm of precipitation
and D. in 20 min. The last rainfall event studied resulted in 85 mm
Area A has a surface of 1,202 m2 with a main dip direc- of precipitation in 20 min and occurred on February 5 of
tion of 109 and an average slope angle of 27 (minimum 2001. The 2001 event is unique in the entire series analyzed,
15 , maximum 42 ). This slope can be considered linear- and the Poisson distribution was used to calculate the proba-
linear (LL) and covers two geological units: U4 and U8 (the bility of occurrence of a similar event in the future. The
characteristics of each geologic unit will be described probability of occurrence of an event similar to the 2001
below). Area B is the smallest slope selected, with a surface event was calculated for 1-, 5- and 10-year projections, with
of only 665 m2; although the area is not extensive, it includes results of 4 %, 18 % and 34 %, respectively. For the 2000
three geological units (U2, U4 and U10). This slope can be event, the likelihoods of occurrence of a similar event were
considered linear-linear (LL), with a main dip direction of 19 %, 66 % and 88 % over 1-, 5- and 10-year projections,
221 and an average slope angle of 36 (minimum 24 , respectively. For the 1995 event, the likelihoods of occur-
maximum 48 ). Area C has a surface of approximately rence of a similar event over 1, 5 or 10 years were 29 %,
1,011 m2 and covers two geological units (U4 and U8), 82 % and 97 %, respectively.
with a dip direction of 287 and an average slope angle of For all rainfall events and each unconsolidated material
21 . It is an area that has generally lower declivity values, unit, a simulation in the HYDRUS-1D infiltration model was
with a minimum of 10 and a maximum of 28 ; this slope completed at a depth of up to 5 m. Table 2 presents the
can be considered to have a linear-linear (LL) shape. Area D volumetric moisture values at depth z, with average volu-
is the largest of the slopes, with a surface of 2,654 m2 metric moisture, average specific weight, total cohesion and
covering several geological units. It contains a valley, total friction angle for 120 min (for the 2000 and 2001
resulting in a large variability in the direction of the aspect events) and 48 h (for the 1995 event) used in the calculation
and the slope angle values. The geological units covered by of the 3D safety factor.
this area are U4, U6, U6a and U9, and the main dip direction The FS3D was calculated for four different scenarios to
is 128 . The upstream part has a slope angle of approxi- consider each rainfall event. Two levels of potential rupture
mately 20 (minimum 14 ), whereas the downstream part surfaces were defined. The first (SP1) was more superficial,
24
Table 1 Physical indices, thickness, strength parameters and Van Genuchten parameters of unconsolidated material existing in the study areas
Ksat
Unit Materials Thickness (cm) gs (kN/m3) gd (kN/m3) nMed ycc (cm/min) c (kN/m2) cs (kN/m2) j ( ) j s ( ) yr ys a (cm1) n
U2 I-R 50 26.71 13.5 0.55 0.15 5.56E-01 9.8 1.68 28.5 29.5 0.035 0.550 0.115 1.474
II-R 100 27.89 14.3 0.48 0.25 2.11E-01 20.0 0.20 26.0 30.0 0.109 0.485 0.034 1.168
III-S 27.51 12.8 0.49 0.30 6.00E-04 30.0 0.20 30.0 35.0 0.075 0.490 0.039 1.194
U4 I-R 50 26.71 13.5 0.55 0.15 4.67E-01 10.0 0.40 26.0 33.5 0.035 0.550 0.115 1.474
II-R 50 27.89 14.3 0.48 0.25 5.89E-01 20.0 0.20 26.0 30.0 0.109 0.485 0.034 1.168
V-S 27.70 12.5 0.52 0.10 6.00E-05 50.0 0.20 35.0 40.0 0.020 0.520 0.138 1.592
U6 VI-A 20 27.50 11.6 0.55 0.15 9.12E-01 20.0 0.61 26.0 31.3 0.020 0.550 0.138 1.592
I-R 20 26.71 13.5 0.55 0.15 3.38E-01 10.0 0.40 26.0 33.0 0.035 0.550 0.115 1.474
II-R 10 27.89 14.3 0.48 0.25 5.89E-01 20.0 0.20 26.0 30.0 0.109 0.485 0.034 1.168
V-S 27.70 12.5 0.52 0.10 6.00E-05 50.0 0.20 35.0 40.0 0.020 0.520 0.138 1.592
U6a VI-A 20 27.50 11.6 0.55 0.15 6.00E-02 20.0 0.61 26.0 31.3 0.020 0.550 0.138 1.592
I-R 20 26.71 13.5 0.55 0.15 5.56E-01 10.0 0.40 26.0 33.0 0.035 0.550 0.115 1.474
V-S 27.70 12.5 0.52 0.10 6.00E-05 50.0 0.20 35.0 40.0 0.020 0.520 0.138 1.592
U8 VII-A 100 28.00 11.8 0.54 0.20 1.26E + 00 10.0 0.60 26.0 31.0 0.028 0.540 0.130 1.700
V-S 27.70 12.5 0.52 0.10 6.00E-05 50.0 0.20 35.0 40.0 0.020 0.520 0.138 1.592
U9 V-S 200 27.70 12.5 0.52 0.10 6.00E-04 50.0 0.20 35.0 40.0 0.020 0.520 0.138 1.592
U10 VIII-T 100 31.04 11.0 0.50 0.20 6.00E-02 10.0 0.40 26.0 33.0 0.078 0.500 0.036 1.500
gs specific weight of solid particles (kN/m3), gd dry unit weight of the soil (kN/m3), nMed average porosity, ycc field volumetric moisture capacity, Ksat saturated hydraulic conductivity (cm/min),
c total cohesion (kN/m2), cs saturated total cohesion (kN/m2), ’ angle of total friction ( ), ’s angle of saturated total friction ( ), yr residual volumetric moisture, ys saturated volumetric moisture,
a inverse value of the air-entry (cm1), n a shape form
A. Silva and L. Zuquette
Table 2 Volumetric moisture values at depth z, degree of saturation at depth z, average volumetric moisture, average specific weight, total cohesion and total friction angle for 120 min (for the
2000 and 2001 events) and 48 h (for the 1995 event)
1995 event 2000 event 2001 event
gM c gM c gM c
Sr(z) (kN/ (kN/ Sr(z) (kN/ (kN/ Sr(z) (kN/ (kN/
Unit z (cm) yZ (%) yAve m3) m2) j ( ) yZ (%) yAve m3) m2) j ( ) yZ (%) yAve m3) m2) j ( )
U2 50 0.4424 80.44 0.2978 16.478 3.27 29.30 0.2905 52.82 0.1977 15.477 5.51 29.03 0.2904 52.80 0.3172 16.672 5.51 29.03
150 0.2714 55.96 0.3163 17.463 8.92 28.24 0.2547 52.52 0.2321 16.621 9.60 28.10 0.2547 52.52 0.2733 17.033 9.60 28.10
U4 50 0.4201 76.38 0.2988 16.488 2.67 31.73 0.2863 52.05 0.1975 15.475 5.00 29.90 0.2863 52.05 0.3170 16.670 5.00 29.90
150 0.3723 76.76 0.3487 17.787 4.80 29.07 0.1003 20.68 0.1826 16.126 15.91 26.83 0.2554 52.66 0.2849 17.149 9.57 28.11
U6 20 0.4568 83.05 0.3170 14.770 3.90 30.4 0.1855 33.73 0.2565 14.165 13.46 27.79 0.4425 80.45 0.3443 15.043 4.40 30.26
40 0.5500 100.00 0.4176 17.676 0.40 33.00 0.2082 37.85 0.2842 16.342 6.37 28.65 0.2843 51.69 0.3559 17.059 5.04 29.62
50 0.5200 100.00 0.4325 18.625 0.40 33.00 0.2553 49.10 0.2162 16.462 9.58 28.11 0.2554 49.12 0.3379 17.679 9.57 28.11
U6a 20 0.5500 100.00 0.4106 15.706 0.61 31.30 0.1661 30.20 0.2360 13.960 14.14 27.60 0.1661 30.20 0.2511 14.111 14.14 27.6
40 0.5500 100.00 0.4752 18.252 0.40 33.00 0.2291 41.65 0.1956 15.456 6.00 28.92 0.3195 58.09 0.2046 15.546 4.42 30.07
Landslide Hazard Assessment Based on FS3D Combined with an Infiltration Model
U8 50 0.2611 48.35 0.2109 13.909 5.45 28.42 0.201 37.22 0.2448 14.248 6.50 27.86 0.3569 66.09 0.3198 14.998 3.79 29.30
100 0.5400 100.00 0.3336 15.136 0.60 31.00 0.213 39.44 0.2227 14.027 6.29 27.97 0.2006 37.15 0.2842 14.642 6.51 27.86
U9 50 0.1003 19.29 0.1405 13.905 40.39 35.96 0.1003 19.29 0.1035 13.535 40.39 35.96 0.1003 19.29 0.1115 13.615 40.39 35.96
100 0.1003 19.29 0.1206 13.706 40.39 35.96 0.1003 19.29 0.1019 13.519 40.39 35.96 0.1003 19.29 0.1060 13.560 40.39 35.96
U10 50 0.3871 77.42 0.3730 14.730 2.57 31.42 0.2001 40.02 0.2359 13.359 6.16 28.80 0.2005 40.10 0.2526 13.526 6.15 28.81
100 0.2005 40.10 0.3480 14.480 6.15 28.81 0.2001 40.02 0.2182 13.182 6.16 28.80 0.2005 40.10 0.2268 13.268 6.15 28.81
z depth (cm), yZ volumetric moisture at a specific depth z (), Sr(z) degree of saturation at depth z (%), yAve average volumetric moisture (), gM average specific weight (kN/m3), c total cohesion
(kN/m2), f total friction angle ( )
25
26 A. Silva and L. Zuquette
Table 3 FS3D of areas A, B, C and D

1995 event 2000 event 2001 event
Natural cohesion Minimum cohesion Natural cohesion Minimum cohesion Natural cohesion Minimum cohesion
Area SP1 SP2 SP1 SP2 SP1 SP2 SP1 SP2 SP1 SP2 SP1 SP2
A 2.03 1.70 1.25 1.15 2.64 3.12 1.18 1.05 2.48 2.30 1.19 1.09
B 1.28 1.20 0.84 0.75 1.81 1.33 0.79 0.74 1.77 1.27 0.79 0.75
C 2.52 1.90 1.59 1.50 3.12 2.95 1.48 1.36 2.89 2.37 1.50 1.42
D 3.36 1.74 1.54 1.60 7.88 3.29 1.40 1.35 3.65 2.66 1.50 1.42
SP1 first potential rupture surface (more superficial), SP2 second potential rupture surface (deeper)
representing the first geotechnical discontinuity of each events similar to the 2001 event occurring (approximately
unconsolidated material unit. The second level of rupture 4 %); on the other hand, there is a nearly a 30 % probability
(SP2) was defined for the second geotechnical discontinuity, of occurrence of an event similar to the 1995 event over the
somewhat deeper. The FS3D was calculated using a cohesion course of a year. Over 10 years, this value approaches 100 %.
value determined from the volumetric moisture at the depth of An analysis of the FS3D values observed in the study areas
the rupture level in consideration (called the natural cohesion results between the first and second rupture surfaces reveals a
in Table 3). Additionally, the FS3D was calculated using a decrease of approximately 17 %, 30 %, 25 % and 48 % in
minimum cohesion value (0.1). For the 2000 and 2001 events, areas A, B, C and D, respectively. In terms of the findings
the security factor was calculated for a period of 120 min, and based on the minimum values of cohesion (0.1 kN/m2), when
for the 1995 event, it was calculated for a period of 48 h. compared to the first scenario (natural cohesion), there was a
Table 3 shows the 3D security factor values obtained in areas decrease of approximately 53 %, 56 %, 49 % and 59 % in
A, B, C and D under the four conditions tested. areas A, B, C and D, respectively, thus validating the influence
of cohesion in the calculation of the safety factor. However,
despite its great influence, this parameter is not solely respon-
Analyses sible for the process, because there were cases in which the
FS3D did not approach a 1.0 value. This is justified in areas
Choosing and delimiting areas for the FS3D calculation is a that have grids with a low slope and/or a high standard devia-
fundamental step because the size, geomorphic features and tion in relation to the dip direction of the slopes.
geological materials involved all directly affect the final
result. The method presented here is most effective when the
bounded area is part of a hillside with a small surface area. Conclusion
When large areas are chosen, two kinds of problems can Existing methodologies can analyze the stability of
occur: the presence of valleys, which implies the presence of slopes, forecast the occurrence of shallow landslides
grids with very low slope, and the presence of grids with dip and consider conditions of rainfall and infiltration. One
directions (direction of slope) that are very different from the of the highlights of the methodology presented here is
general inclination of the slope. Both of these situations con- that the steps are closely related and the determination of
tribute to increases in the general security factor of an area. any parameter depends on the other parameters; no
The chosen rupture surfaces represent geotechnical parameter is considered as a fixed or constant value in
discontinuities between the different types of unconsolidated calculating the safety factor. By incorporating this type
materials. By using volumetric moisture and depth graphics of infiltration analysis, including variation of soil mois-
obtained by HYDRUS-1D, it is possible to observe that, ture with depth, the portion of increased soil weight
where these contacts occur, especially in materials with caused by the amount of infiltrated water after the rain-
saturated hydraulic conductivities with different orders of fall event and the shear strength parameters considered
magnitude, there is an increase in the volumetric moisture in the calculation of the FS3D for the potential rupture
because of this natural hydraulic barrier. surface are directly related to the degree of saturation,
Regarding the moistening front in the unconsolidated these changes represent an improvement in the field of
material profiles after pluviometric events (obtained from landslide prediction. The final FS3D results were consis-
the HYDRUS-1D program), there was a significant differ- tent with the geological, hydro-geological and geotech-
ence in the results because of the difference in the selected nical settings considered, and they suggest a promising
rainfall events, with two short-duration and high-intensity future for the study.
events and one low-intensity and long-duration event.
With regards to the most extreme events studied (of highest Acknowledgments The authors thank all those who contributed to this
and lowest intensity), there is a low annual probability of work in any way and those who work for the advancement of science.
Landslide Hazard Assessment Based on FS3D Combined with an Infiltration Model 27
Silva AF (2009) Estudo de previsão de escorregamento a partir do fator

References de segurança 3D: Campos do Jordão-SP. Masters dissertation, São
Carlos School of Engineering, São Paulo University, São Carlos,
353p
Ahrendt A (2005) Movimentos de massa gravitacionais – Proposta de Simunek J, Van Genuchten MTh, Sejna M (2005) The Hydrus-1D soft.
um sistema de previsão: aplicação na área urbana de Campos do pack. for simulating the 1D movement of water, heat, and multiple
Jordão – SP. São Carlos, Ph.D. thesis, São Carlos School of Engi- solutes in variably-saturated media. V.3.0, HYDRUS software
neering, São Paulo University, São Carlos, 360p series 1. Department of Environmental Sciences, University of
Aleotti P, Chowdhury R (1999) Landslide hazard assessment: summary California, Riverside, 270p
review and new perspectives. Bull Eng Geol Environ 58:21–44 Varnes DJ (1984) Landslide hazard zonation: a review of principles and
Chacón J, Irigaray C, Fernández T, El Hamdouni R (2006) Engineering practice. Commission on landslides of the IAEG, vol 3, Natural
geology maps: landslides and geographical information systems. hazards. UNESCO, Paris, 61p
Bull Eng Geol Environ 65:341–411 Wilkinson PL, Anderson MG, Lloyd DM (2002) An integrated hydro-
Gasmo JM, Rahardjo H, Leong EC (2000) Infiltration effects on stabil- logical model for rain-induced landslide prediction. Earth Surf Proc
ity of a residual soil slope. Comput Geotech 26:145–165 Landf 27:1285–1297
Hovland HJ (1977) Three-dimensional slope stability analysis method. Xie M, Esaki T, Zhou G (2003) Three-dimensional stability evaluation
J Geotech Eng Div GT9:971–986 of landslides and a sliding process simulation using a new
Hutchinson JN (1992) Landslide hazard assessment. In: Proceedings of geographic information systems component. Environ Geol 43:
6th international symposium on landslides, vol 1. Christchurch, 503–512
pp 1805–1841
Modelling the Motion of Mobile Debris Flows
in Hong Kong
J.S.H. Kwan, T.H.H. Hui, and K.K.S. Ho
Abstract
Lantau Island is located at the south-western part of Hong Kong. Over 75 % of its areas are
natural hillsides and approximately one third of the hillsides are sloping at 30 or above.
The geology comprises tuff and granite. On 7 June 2008, a severe rainfall with a return
period of 1,100 years occurred over the western part of Lantau Island. This triggered over
2,400 landslides, about 900 of which were debris flows. Some of these were sizeable and
mobile, involving active debris volumes and travel distances in excess of 10,000 m3 and
1,700 m respectively. This paper examines the runout characteristics of selected mobile
debris flows. Two-dimensional and three-dimensional dynamic models developed by the
Geotechnical Engineering Office (GEO), Civil Engineering and Development Department
were used to back analyse the long-runout debris flows, taking into account the complicated
geometry of the runout paths. The findings and their engineering implications are presented
in the paper.
Keywords
Landslide Debris flow Numerical modelling
Introduction runout characteristics. Hungr et al. (2007) summarised details

of various numerical models which were used in a debris
Rain-induced landslide is a common form of natural hazards mobility benchmarking exercise held in Hong Kong in 2007.
in Hong Kong. The landslide debris is liable to develop into a On 7 June 2008, a severe rainstrom with a statisical return
channelized debris flow (CDF) after the debris mass enters the period of 1,100 years occurred over the western part of Lantau
natural drainage line. Those CDFs have long runout and are Island, Hong Kong. The rainfall caused over 2,400 natural
disastrous. The assessment of debris motion would require terrain landslides, about 900 of which developed into CDFs.
mobility analysis to establish the runout distance, extent of Some of these CDFs affected facilities within developed area,
affected areas and other important parameters, such as debris e.g. residential buildings and the expressway linking the city
velocity and depth. Nowadays, numerical models have been centre and the airport as well as some sole vehicular accesses.
developed and are increasingly used to simulate landslide A study of the runout of the more mobile CDFs has been
debris motion for mobility analysis. With appropriate rheo- carried out. The study included field mapping, statistical
logical parameters as input to continuum models, numerical analysis of the mobility data and back analysis using both
analyses can produce reasonable estimates of the debris two-dimensional and three-dimensional numerical models
(i.e. using the 2dDMM and 3dDMM programmes), devel-
oped in-house by the GEO. The observations made by the
J.S.H.Kwan (*) T.H.H.Hui K.K.S.Ho study are presented in this paper.
Geotechnical Engineering Office, Civil Engineering and Development
Department, The Government of the Hong Kong Special Adminstrative
Region, Hong Kong, China

30 J.S.H. Kwan et al.
Historical Landslides (only include those >200 m) 2008 Landslides (only include those >200 m)
600
Elevation Difference (m)

500
400
300
200
100
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Travel Distance (m)
Fig. 2 Runout distance of June 2008 CDFs and historical landslides
whereas deep failures rarely occurred. Over 90 % of the

landslides have source volumes less than 100 m3. However,
Lantau Island severe entrainment (with entrainment ratio up to 10 or
higher) was noted in many of the long runout CDFs.
Landslide debris mobility was found to have increased
Fig. 1 Maximum 24-h rainfall contours of the 7 June 2008 rainfall and with rainfall intensity. Figure 2 shows that the June 2008
locations of natural terrain landslides CDFs have considerably higher mobility than that of
historical landslides. It is noted that 15 CDFs in the June
2008 rainstorm had runout distances exceeding 500 m, while
Rainfall Event on 7 June 2008 there are only eight historical landslides including one case
in Lantau Island, over the last several decades. Results of
Previous study on the rainfall-landslide correlation in Hong field mapping revealed that many of these CDFs involved
Kong observed that the occurrence of natural terrain watery debris (i.e. very wet debris mass) of high mobility.
landslides was closely related to both 4-h and 24-h rainfall
(Ko 2005). Rainfall data collected from the three raingauges
on Lantau have been analysed. The maximum 4-h (384 mm) Modelling of Long-Runout, Large-Scale
and 24-h (623 mm) rainfall depths correspond to return Debris Flows
period of about 1,100 years and 200 years respectively.
The June 2008 rainstorm was more severe than that experi- Back analyses of selected June 2008 CDFs of high mobility
enced previously in the recent history of Hong Kong. were carried out using the 2dDMM program (Kwan and Sun
Figure 1 shows the maximum 24-h rainfall contours of the 2006), as well as 3dDMM program (Kwan and Sun 2007).
7 June 2008 rainfall event as well as the locations of natural Amongst them, CDFs at Yu Tung Road and Shek Mun Kap
terrain landslides. as well as two CDFs at Shek Pik were relatively sizable and
mobile (see Table 1).
Mobility of Landslides
2dDMM and 3dDMM
Over the years, the GEO has continued with the updating of
the Enhanced Natural Terrain Landslide Inventory based on Both 2dDMM and 3dDMM consider debris flow as a contin-
aerial photography interpretation (API), which contains uum material, and the dynamic characteristics are assumed
records of more than 110,000 historical landslides. to be governed by modified shallow water equations.
The GEO has completed mapping of the June 2008 natu- The major modifications involve (1) inclusion of the base
ral terrain landslides in Lantau Island using satellite images friction as determined using either a frictional or Voellmy
as well as vertical and oblique aerial photographs, from rheology, and (2) incorporation of the Savage-Hutter theory
which about 2,400 landslides were identified and mapped. to calculate the internal pressure within the debris mass.
Detailed field mapping has also been carried out for the more 2dDMM is an enhanced version of the DAN model pro-
mobile CDFs (i.e. runout distance >200 m) and landslide posed by Hungr (1995). It solves the shallow water equation
clusters. In total, more than 130 landslides were mapped in using a Lagrangian framework and is capable of simulating
the field. debris flows travelling along a pre-set runout path with
The June 2008 landslides predominantly involved shal- trapezoid cross-sections. Details of the formulation of the
low failures (typically within 1–2 m of the surface mantle), 2dDMM are presented by Kwan and Sun (2006).
Modelling the Motion of Mobile Debris Flows in Hong Kong 31
Table 1 Mobile debris flows selected for back analyses

Debris flow Source volume (m3) Maximum active volume (m3) Runout distance (m) Catchment area (m2)
Yu Tung Road ~2,350 ~3,300 >590 1,02,000
Shek Mun Kap ~220 >1,700 >980 1,21,000
Shek Pik ‘A’ ~1,000 >8,500 >910 1,65,000
Shek Pik ‘B’ ~150 >5,000 >1,700 6,72,000
3dDMM is developed using a numerical strategy called

Particle-in-cell and can evaluate the dynamics of debris
travelling over a three-dimensional terrain. In the algorithm,
the debris mass is represented by a number of imaginary
mass points, and the terrain is divided into arrays of cells.
The debris mass and debris height at a particular cell are
determined based on the number of mass points located
within the cell. It had been used to analyse the dynamics of
landslides and debris flows that occurred in Hong Kong and
other countries including Italy and Canada. Kwan and
Sun (2007) described the modelling techniques and the
simulation results.
The effects of entrainment can be simulated by both
2dDMM and 3dDMM. The calculation procedure proposed
by McDougall and Hungr (2005) has been incorporated in
3dDMM. The procedure assumes that the amount of entrain-
ment is directly proportional to the debris velocity and the
overburden pressure of the debris acting on the ground. Fig. 3 Layout plan of the Yu Tung Road CDF
2dDMM calculates the amount of entrainment based on a
different algorithm which assumes that the total volume of Rock outcrop was observed at the landslide crown during
debris increases in accordance with a specified rate. In the the field mapping. On the rupture surface, completely and
back analyses, the entrainment rate or coefficient was back- highly decomposed fine ash tuff was observed. The crown is
calculated to match the estimated active debris volume as about 30 m above an incised drainage line. The width of the
inferred from the field mapping results. landside scrap is 32 m and the maximum thickness of the
Digital Elevation Map (DEM) and the volume of the detached ground mass is about 3 m.
detached ground mass at the landslide source are the basic The debris entered the drainage line at CH65, where the
input parameters required for debris mobility analyses. In active volume was about 2,450 m3, then mobilized into a
the analyses carried out in this study, except for the Yu Tung fast-moving pulse that travelled downslope as a CDF. From
Road CDF, the DEM provided by the Survey and Mapping CH65 to CH330, the drainage line was predominantly
Office, Lands Department of the Hong Kong SAR Govern- incised and moderately steep. The active volume increased
ment had been adopted. For Yu Tung Road CDF, the results to a maximum of about 3,300 m3 near CH330. Virtually all
of a post-landslide topography survey were used to develop the perched materials (including boulders) on the drainage
the DEM. In all the cases, the landslide volume was line were entrained. Between CH330 and CH510, the drain-
established based on field measurements. age line broadened and became more gently sloping, with
intermittent parts of the channel bed comprising steep rock
faces. The debris flow was travelling at a high speed along
Yu Tung Road Debris Flow this section, with an average velocity of about 10 m/s. Debris
super-elevation data were also recorded to provide estimates
A landslide occurred at the source area at about 8:30 a.m. on of debris flow velocities at various locations along the flow
7 June 2008. Figure 3 shows the debris trail. The whole path (see the dots in Fig. 4). The debris was discharged at the
debris flow process was captured by a video, which provides drainage line outlet principally in one large pulse that lasted
valuable information for the understanding of debris motion for about 20 s. The debris runout distance was about 550 m
and the subsequent back analyses. and the corresponding travel angle was about 17 . The debris
About 2,350 m3 of debris was detached in one go from a flow process was simulated using both 2dDMM and

32 steep terrain, which was discharged as a debris ava- 3dDMM with Voellmy rheology. The entrainment coeffi-
lanche down the open hillslope below the source area. cient and rheological parameters have been back-calculated
Simulated Debris Profile Source

lume:
LS08-0337 Vo 02 m3
~3
Initial debris profile (in m) -025
2 CH 0
Source LS08H 0
Profile of debris reaching CH 560 (in m)
Elevation Height(m)
Volume:3 C CH 30
Source
Simulated debris depths are exaggerated by 10 times for clarity ~257m
0
CH 3
140
CH
260
CH 80
2
CH
320
CH e
on
nZ
letio
Dep
420
CH
Distance Travelled (m) 5 50

CH
n
ositio
Simulated Debris Frontal Velocity Dep 27m3
~1
20
620
18 CH
Estimated debris velocity based on super-elevation data
6 60
16 CH
Velocity (m/s)
14
3
on e
25m slide nZ
12 land n sitio
Tra
10 760 3
15m slide
CH
8 land ne
Zo
n
6 tio
mula
4 860 cu
CH Ac
2 900
CH 920
0 CH
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 40
10
Distance Travelled (m) CH
00
11
H
C
Fig. 4 2dDMM results: debris profile and debris frontal velocity
Fig. 6 Layout plan of Shek Mun Kap debris flow
Shek Mun Kap Debris Flow
Figure 6 shows an overview of the debris flow at Shek Mun

Kap. The debris was sourced from two open hillslope
landslides. The exact times of the failures were not reported.
Field mapping established that the volumes of the two
landslides are about 250 and 300 m3 respectively. The two
debris trails merge at about CH260, at which debris was fed
into a narrow local depression. From the layering sequence
of the debris deposition observed at the confluence of the
two debris trails, the southern landslide probably occurred
first. The debris of this landslide travelled on a relatively
planar slope in the form of a debris avalanche. Most of
the debris of this first failure deposited close to CH260.
Fig. 5 Debris thickness profiles produced by 3dDMM at 20 and 40 s The deposition was then activated by the debris from the
after onset of landslide northern landslide which occurred at a later stage. A total of
500 m3 active debris entered into the local depression down-
based on the super-elevation data, time of travel revealed by stream. The local depression is about 15 m wide and 2 m
the video and the amount of entrainment as estimated during deep, with a gradient of about 32 . This gradient remains
field mapping. essentially unchanged for some 500 m downstream. Signs of
Both 2dDMM and 3dDMM provide reasonable simula- considerable erosion along the depression were evident. It is
tion results based on an apparent basal friction angle of estimated that the maximum active debris flow volume could
8 with the Voellmy coefficient equal to 500 m/s2. The be up to 1,500 m3.
entrainment coefficients adopted in 2dDMM and 3dDMM The debris flow diverged upon reaching a hump-like
are 36 m3/s and 0.0011 m 1 respectively. Figures 4 and 5 topographic feature at CH550. At the end of the hump, the
show some of the simulation results given by 2dDMM and debris flow paths merged. An abrupt change in the gradient
3dDMM. of the runout trail was observed at CH760, where the
Fig. 7 Output of 3dDMM showing the debris flow diverged at CH550
gradient is less than 20 . Deposition of debris started at this

chainage. The deposition zone extended for some 200 m to
Fig. 8 (Left) Layout plan of Shek Pik ‘A’ debris flow (middle and
CH1000. The debris runout distance was about 980 m and right) 3dDMM results showing the Shek Pik ‘A’ debris flow at run-time
the corresponding travel angle was about 24 . 30 and 60 s after the onset of landslide
Numerical simulations of the Shek Mun Kap debris
flow have been conducted based on some simplifications.
A single open hillslope failure with a volume of 300 m3 is interpretation study revealed that two major landslides at
assumed. An appropriate value of entrainment coefficient is this location had occurred in 1993 and 1995 previously.
then applied to the region between the landslide and the local Figure 8 shows the layout of the Shek Pik ‘A’ CDF in
depression at CH260 to obtain an active debris volume of 2008. The source area of Shek Pik ‘A’ was about 60 m wide
500 m3 at the head of the local depression. and 1.2 m deep and the total volume was about 1,000 m3.
Another simplification has been made in the 2dDMM Materials involved were mainly talluvium and colluvium.
analysis. As 2dDMM does not consider the three-dimensional The majority of the landslide debris followed the west trail
topography of the runout path, between CH550 and CH760 (see Fig. 8) and entered an incised drainage line at CH200.
where the debris flow diverged and travelled in two The debris mixed with a stream of concentrated surface
separated runout paths, the simulation was carried out as if runoff within the drainage line and developed into a CDF.
the debris travelled on a single runout trail. Erosion of the side slope was observed along the debris trail.
The Voellmy rheology has been adopted in the dynamic It is estimated that the volume of the CDF increased to about
analyses. Apparent basal friction angle of 8 and a Voellmy 4,000 m3 at CH530.
coefficient of 500 m/s2 have been used in the 3dDMM The loose debris of 1993 and 1995 landslides deposited
analysis, while a slightly higher apparent basal friction between CH500 and CH800 probably provided an addition
angle of 9 with the same value of Voellmy coefficient has source of entrainable material. Field mapping revealed that
been adopted in the 2dDMM analysis. significant erosion of the loose materials had occurred.
The bifurcation of the debris flow at CH550 has been Materials with a depth of up to 3 m had been scoured and
simulated by the 3dDMM analysis (see Fig. 7). The entrained as part of the CDF. The maximum active volume
simulated debris depth at this location is about 1 m, which of the debris flow was estimated to be greater than 8,500 m3
is consistent with the site observation. at CH790.
The slope gradient gradually reduced along the runout
trail. At CH820, the debris flow entered into a deposition
Shek Pik ‘A’ Debris Flow zone where the gradient is less than 10 and the width of the
drainage line broadens to over 20 m. Due to the hydraulic
The landslide which initiated Shek Pik ‘A’ debris flow was action of the surface runoff, some of the debris mass had
located at a steep slope of about 40 below a rock cliff of been washed down into the Shek Pik Reservoir at CH900.
about 35 m high. The hillside of concern is some 350 m The total runout distance of the CDF on land is about 910 m
above the Shek Pik Reservoir. An aerial photograph and the corresponding travel angle is about 18 . Based on
super-elevation data, the flow velocities at CH470

and CH750 were estimated to be about 12 and 6 m/s
respectively.
2dDMM and 3dDMM analyses have been carried out.
The east trail (see Fig. 8) has not been considered in the
analyses, since the amount of debris travelling within this
trail is considerably less than that of the west trail. The
analyses show that Voellmy rheology with apparent basal
friction angle of 8 with Voellmy coefficient equal to
500 m/s2 can describe the dynamics of the CDF well.
Shek Pik ‘B’ Debris Flow
An oblique aerial photograph showing the trail of the debris

flow is presented in Fig. 9. The main source of Shek Pik ‘B’
was located on a steep slope of about 37 below a rock cliff
of about 15 m in height. It was a shallow failure (depth about Fig. 9 Many tributaries feeding water into the major drainage line of
Shek Pik ‘B’
0.75 m). The total volume of the landslide at source was
about 150 m3. The failure developed into a CDF upon
slightly lower apparent basal friction angle of 7 was
entering the existing drainage line at CH100.
established by the 2dDMM.
Significant entrainment of perched materials and erosion
of the side slopes were observed between CH100 and
CH1000, and the total active volume was estimated to be
greater than 5,000 m3. No significant change in active Discussion
volume was observed between CH1000 and CH1500,
indicating that effects of erosion and deposition might have The Voellmy rheology has been adopted in the 2dDMM and
been balanced out within this section. 3dDMM simulations of the above four mobile debris
Between CH1500 and CH1700, deposition of debris was flows in Hong Kong. The parameters involved, i.e. basal
observed. The maximum width of the drainage channel was apparent friction angle and Voellmy coefficient, as well as
about 50 m. Boulder levees along both sides of the drainage the entrainment coefficient, have been adjusted to best fit the
line had a total volume of about 3,300 m3, which comprised estimated debris flow velocity and volume profile. The most
sorted debris up to 2 m in height. Some of the debris mass appropriate parameters for these four long-runout CDFs are
had travelled further downslope and was deposited in the 7 to 9 for the basal apparent friction angle and 500 m/s2 for
Shek Pik Reservoir below CH1700. The runout distance on the Voellmy coefficient (Table 2).
land is about 1,700 m and the corresponding travel angle is Lo (2000) reviewed the Voellmy parameters applicable to
about 16 . the simulation of debris flows in Hong Kong based on the
The runout distance of this Shek Pik ‘B’ debris flow is the back-analyses of previous debris flows in Hong Kong using
longest amongst the four CDFs presented in this paper whilst DAN. It was recommended that for landslide volume
its landslide volume at source is the least. This may be exceeding 400 m3, the apparent basal friction angle and
related to its distinct geomorphological setting of the Shek Voellmy coefficient could be taken as 11 and 500 m/s2
Pik ‘B’ catchment. The size of Shek Pik ‘B’ catchment is respectively. However, for the sizeable, watery debris
large (about 672,000 m2 in area) and there are many flows, like the ones analysed in the present study, mobility
tributaries feeding water into the major drainage line (see analyses adopting the above recommended parameters
Fig. 9). Each of these tributaries probably fed concentrated, would have under-estimated the debris runout distance.
powerful stream of surface runoff to the trail of the debris Both the video of the Yu Tung Road debris flow and site
flow and might have provided an additional driving force to observations made shortly after the events confirmed that the
the CDF. In any event, the surface runoff fed by these four debris flows covered in this study involved watery
tributaries increased the water content of the debris flow, debris. The watery nature of these torrents is likely to be
thus reducing the flow resistance. attributed to the extreme and prolonged rainfall in June 2008
Dynamic mobility modelling on the Skek Pik ‘B’ CDF as well as the large catchment size of the drainage lines
has been carried out. The most appropriate parameters concerned (see Table 1).
derived using the 3dDMM were apparent basal friction On the basis of the above, it is considered prudent to
angle of 8 and Voellmy coefficient of 500 m/s2, while a adopt an apparent basal friction angle of 8 , together with a
Table 2 Results of back analyses based on 2dDMM and 3dDMM

Back analyses (2dDMM) Back analyses (3dDMM)
Debris flow fa z (m/s2) f a ( ) z (m/s2)
Yu Tung Road 8 500 8 500
Shek Mun Kap 9 500 8 500
Shek Pik ‘A’ 8 500 8 500
Shek Pik ‘B’ 7 500 8 500
Voellmy coefficient of 500 m/s2, for the prediction of runout are potentially conducive to give rise to such mobile
characteristics of sizeable CDFs under the following adverse CDFs are also given.
site settings as diagnosed by Wong (2009):
• Sizeable debris flow at a major drainage line e.g. sites Acknowledgements This paper is published with the permission of
with a large catchment and a long flow path where a large the Head of the Geotechnical Engineering Office and the Director of
Civil Engineering and Development, Government of the Hong Kong
amount of surface runnoff and entrainable materials may
Special Administrative Region.
be available for mixing with the landslide debris.
• Sizeable debris flow along a major drainage line into
which many tributaries are feeding, i.e. possible sudden
increase in the water content of the moving debris when- References
ever the debris passes through a confluence point.
Hungr O (1995) A model for the runout analysis of rapid flow slides,
• Discharge of debris to a pool of water on the drainage line debris flows and avalanches. Can Geotech J 32:610–623
or debris from a small drainage line onto a major drainage Hungr O, Morgenstern NR, Wong HN (2007) Review of benchmarking
line where there is potential for a large amount of running exercise on landslide debris runout and mobility modelling.
In: Proceedings of the international forum on landslide disaster
storm water.
management, vol 2, Hong Kong, pp 945–966
Ko FWY (2005) Correlation between rainfall and natural terrain land-
Conclusions slide occurrence in Hong Kong, GEO Report No. 168. Geotechnical
This paper presents the natural terrain landslides, Engineering Office, Hong Kong, 77p
Kwan JSH, Sun HW (2006) An improved landslide mobility model.
including four sizeable, long-runout debris flows, trig-
Can Geotech J 43:531–539
gered by a severe rainstorm in Hong Kong on 7 June Kwan JSH, Sun HW (2007) Benchmarking exercise on landslide
2008. mobility modelling – runout analyses using 3dDMM.
Two dimensional and three dimensional analyses of In: Proceedings of the international forum on landslide disaster
management, vol 2, Hong Kong, pp 945–966
the debris flows have been carried out using the 2dDMM
Lo DOK (2000) Review of natural terrain landslide debris-resisting
and 3dDMM programmes developed by the GEO. The barrier design, GEO Report No. 104. Geotechnical Engineering
above long-runout CDFs were more mobile than the Office, Hong Kong, 91p
predicted using the prevailing recommendations on rheo- McDougall S, Hungr O (2005) Dynamic modelling of entrainment in
rapid landslides. Can Geotech J 42:1437–1448
logical parameters for mobility analyses. Based on
Wong HN (2009) Rising to the challenges of natural terrain landslides.
the field mapping and back analyses, the rheological In: Proceedings of the HKIE Geotechnical Division annual seminar
parameters for such mobile CDFs involving watery debris on natural hillsides: study and risk management measures. Hong
have been updated. The corresponding site settings that Kong Institution of Engineers, Hong Kong, pp 15–53
Modeling Potential Shallow Landslides over Large
Areas with SliDisp+
Abstract
The deterministic model SliDisp+ calculates the potential detachment zones of shallow
landslides. It is a grid-based model using an infinite slope analysis to calculate the safety
factors F (ratio of retaining and driving forces) for each cell.
The input data consists of the slope topography, soil strength parameters, depths and
shapes of potential shear planes, and the hydraulic behavior. The variables are derived from
a digital elevation model (DEM), geological, geotechnical, and pedological documents, or
field investigations. From this data the soil is classified over large areas. For each cell, the
critical slope angle as well as the soil cohesion is determined.
Studies in several test areas showed that pedological aspects as well as joint water-input
from underlying rock must be taken into account. Combined with the run-out model
SliDepot, SliDisp+ calculates the extent of potential landslides over large areas and thus
can be applied for spatial planning and optimized positioning of protection measures.
Keywords
Shallow landslide modeling SliDisp+ SliDepot
Introduction provide a quick identification of endangered areas with

conflicts between hazards and land use. It is the base on
In mountain regions many residential areas as well as impor- which to set priorities for a more accurate hazard assessment.
tant lifelines are generally exposed to potential shallow land- Since 2000, the authors have applied the process model
slide events (Griffiths et al. 2002). Spatial planning is one of SliDisp to indicate hazard zones within large administrative
the major key elements in protection against natural hazards areas. Within the same period, the model and the assessment
and requires a comprehensive assessment of landslide pro- method to gather input-data have been redesigned and improved.
cesses (Glade et al. 2005; Sidle and Ochiai 2006). By apply-
ing process models, the extent of potential landslides can be
calculated over large areas (Guzzetti et al. 2006; Zolfaghari Model SliDisp/SliDisp+
and Heath 2008; Dai and Lee 2002). The resulting maps
The original model SliDisp was developed by Liener (2000)
at the University of Berne. Studies in several test areas
D. Tobler (*)
showed that the assessment of detachment zones for poten-
Institute of Geography, University of Berne, Hallerstrasse 12, Berne
CH-3012, Switzerland tial shallow landslides must inevitably take pedological
aspects as well as joint water-input from the underlying
GEOTEST AG, Birkenstrasse 15, Zollikofen CH-3052, Switzerland
e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] bedrock into account (Guimarãres et al. 2003; Rickli and
Bucher 2003; Dahal 2008; Paulin and Bursik 2009). During
R. Riner R. Pfeifer
GEOTEST AG, Birkenstrasse 15, Zollikofen CH-3052, Switzerland the last 5 years various modifications were made and the
e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] program advanced to SliDisp+ (Riner 2009).

38 D. Tobler et al.
Fig. 1 Principle for the

calculation of the factor of safety
F for every raster cell (Selby
1993). Indication of all
parameters needed for the
calculation, except the root
cohesion (WK, see Formula 1)
Stability Calculation in SliDisp sources. If more than 90 % of the F-values are <1, a medium
to large chance of a potential landslide is expected. The data
SliDisp is a deterministic model which calculates the land- preparation as well as its visualization is carried out by
slide susceptibility of slopes. The calculation of stability is means of a geographic information system (GIS). The
based on the formula of Selby (1993), whereas the charac- calculation of the stability factors is implemented by a
teristic soil-physics, the thickness of subsoil, the ground C-application and then integrated into the GIS.
water level, the slope, and the force of roots are taken as
determining parameters (Fig. 1, Formula 1).
For the model calculation a term for root cohesion (WK) Model-Parameter SliDisp
has been added to the original formula of the factor of safety
F (Formula 1). This empirical adjusted parameter takes the Deterministic models based on the infinite slope analysis
roots-retaining forces of the vegetation layer into account (cf. Formula 1) call for strongly simplified model parameters
(Schmidt et al. 2001; Chok et al. 2004; Hales et al. 2009). (Dahal 2008). Concretely these are: soil thickness, slope
angle, ground water level, shear strength, cohesion, and root
WK þ c0 þ ðg z cos2 b gw m z cos2 bÞ tan’0 strength. The parameters are derived from the variable mor-
F¼ phology, the geology, and the geotechnical characteristics of
g z sinb cosb
the loose rock and vegetation cover (Guzzetti et al. 2006; cf.
(1)
Fig. 1). The different parameters and their determination are
described in the following sections.
The safety factor F is calculated for each cell of the grid,
Therefore the three main data sources are the digital eleva-
based on the data from the digital elevation model (DEM). If
tion model (DEM), geological and geotechnical information
F < 1, the cell is potentially instable, and the material can be
(maps, laboratory data, results from field investigations) and
set into motion by triggering factors. The total of all instable
pedological datasets (type of soil). Figure 2 demonstrates the
grid elements equals the maximum detachment area
relationship or derivation of the different datasets used in
(¼ landslide susceptibility).
SliDisp/SliDisp+.
The normal variation of shearing parameters is acknow-
ledged by a Monte-Carlo simulation (Kalos and Whitlock
1986). By applying this method, 100 random values are Morphological Variables
chosen from the deviation of the shearing parameters to Digital elevation models (DEM) are of central significance
calculate the factor of safety (F). With this random combi- as database to assess morphological variables. They serve
nation of parameters, the factor of safety is calculated as basic information to calculate the slope angle and the
100 times for each cell. We assume that both the cohesion topographically induced water saturation potential of each
and the friction angle show a normal distribution and do not grid cell (topographic-index, Beven et al. 1995; Liener et al.
correlate with each other (Lacasse and Nadim 1996). 1996). The topographic index corresponds to the natural
Areas with more than 60 % of the parameter combination logarithm of the ratio of drained area of the cell to slope
showing a safety factor F < 1 are indicated as potential angle b of the cell (cf. Formula 2, Fig. 3). The hydrologically
Modeling Potential Shallow Landslides over Large Areas with SliDisp+ 39
Table 1 Soil thickness classes according to specified slope angle

ranges in the case study Lauterbrunnen, Switzerland (GEOTEST AG
2011)
Slope angle [ ] Soil thickness [m]
<20 3.0
20 –25 2.5
25 –30 2.0
30 –35 1.5
35 –40 1.0
40 –45 0.75
The model SliDisp uses a similar approach. Here six

different slope angle classes with their corresponding depth
of bedrock interface are specified (Table 1). The better the
Fig. 2 Derivation of the model-parameters (input data) for the infinite knowledge about local conditions, the more precisely the
slope model SliDisp/SliDisp+ (Riner 2009) soil thickness can be defined.
AGN (2004) as well as the results of different field
campaigns (Liniger 2006; GEOTEST AG 2011) show that
especially slopes with angles from 20 to 45 are susceptible
to shallow landslides. Generally, with such steep slopes the
point of saturation
soil thickness varies between 0.2 and 0.5 m on topographic
ridges, and reaches 3.0 m in hollows (Riner 2009).
Geotechnical Parameters
topography Depending on the local geology and the subsoil type, the
geotechnical characteristics (such as permeability, angle of
In(a/tanb)
internal friction, cohesion) and the spatial pattern of loose

rock are specified. Geological and geotechnical maps, bore-
Topoindex hole data, and soil maps can also serve as database for this
task. Additionally, field mapping and geotechnical analysis
Fig. 3 Relationship between the topography and the topographic index of the subsurface can be realized if necessary.
(After Quinn et al. 1995, slightly modified) For simulation purposes, areas with the same geotechnical
characteristics (subsoil classes) are merged into polygons.
relevant morphologies (ridge, flank, basin/dell, channels) are The mean values for permeability, angle of internal friction
derived from the topo-index values. In a further step, these f’, and cohesion c0 are referred to all assigned polygons. The
values serve as a basis to calculate ground water levels. geotechnical characteristics of the subsoil are assumed to be
uniform within a single polygon and homogeneously
topographic-index ¼ lnða= tan bÞ (2) distributed (Liu and Wu 2008).
Permeability
Soil Thickness According to Hölting and Enke (1996), the permeability of
There are different ways to gain data about the thickness of loose rock can be estimated approximately, depending on
the soil coverage: from existing datasets (boreholes, the distribution of the grain size. Six different permeability
soundings, field mapping), from field investigations, and ranges are generally considered, from gravel to mid-size
from model calculations (Godt et al. 2008). Today, different sand to clay (Table 2).
models exist – but all are based on the derivation from the The classification adopted in SliDisp considers six classes
slope gradient (Seconi and Catani 2008). (according to VSS 1999 and Wittke 1984). For each class, a
Therefore, according to DeRose (1996) and Salciarini permeability number from 1 to 6 is designated. Within the
et al. (2006), the correlation between the soil thickness z model, this number is translated into a coefficient
and the slope angle b (Formula 3) is given as an exponential (m ¼ 0.15–0.9) and is taken as the basis for calculating the
function, where groundwater level.
Areas with different grain sizes and different permeabil-

z ¼ 7:72 e0:04 b : (3) ity may constitute hydraulic barriers and are more common
40 D. Tobler et al.
Table 2 Derivation of the permeability coefficient “m” from different clay silt sand gravel
USCS (SN 670008a, 1998):
grain sizes (VSS 1999; Riner 2009). Example from Lauterbrunnen case 100 SC
90
study, Switzerland (GEOTEST AG 2011) 80
Percent passing
70 Clayey sands with or
Respective grain Permeability Permeability 60 without gravel
50
Class size (k-values) coefficient m 40
1 Pure gravel <108 0.15 30
20
2 Sand 107 bis 108 0.30 10
0
310
Grain size
106 bis 107
0,002 0,006 0,02 0,06 0,2 0,6 2 6 20 60 [mm]
3 Fine sand 0.45
104 bis 106 Φ
WL IP P W e0 ' c' cu Cc Cs k Wopt Pdopt
4 Silty sand 0.60 [%] [%] [t.m–3] [%] [-] [°] [kN.m–2] [kN.m–2] [–] [–] [m.s–1] [%] [t.m–3]
5 Clayey silt 102 bis 104 0.75 26,0

σ=7,6
11,5 2,21 14,8 0,38
σ=5,4 σ=0,17 σ=8,1 σ=0,21
34,8
σ=4,7
5,3
σ=11,6
167
σ=76
0,173
σ=0,104
0,022
σ=0,024
1.10-9
bisja
1.10-6
15
σ=3
1,85
σ=0,15
6 Clay >102 0.90

Fig. 4 Soil-parameters of clayey sands with or without gravel (SC) and
grain-size distribution. The red line marks the 15 % passing line which
in heterogeneous soils. The probability for increasing posi- defines the characteristic parameters wL und IP, the permeability
tive pore pressures is higher at such locations (Lourenco (k-value) und shearing parameters j0 und c0 (VSS 1999)
et al. 2006). Therefore soils identified as heterogeneous are
ranked one class lower (Riner 2009). For example, hetero-
geneous silty sand will not achieve the permeability number
3, but 2.
Angle of Internal Friction (w0 )

The characteristic value of the internal friction angle (j0 ) of
the subsoil was determined by shear experiments or derived
from existing tables with indicated soil parameters for dif-
ferent underground types (VSS 1999). If no laboratory
datasets from shear experiments are available the definition
of the parameters follows the instructions of Liener (2000)
and Riner (2009). The determination of j0 , c0 and perme- Fig. 5 Variation of factor of safety with different depths of root zones
ability is based on the weathering product of the different (hR) applying the root cohesion (cR) where c0 ¼ o and vegetation
geological units (bedrock). By defining the grain size distri- extends entirely over the ground surface, including the upper slope,
slope surface, and slope toe (Chok et al. 2004)
bution and potential of erosion of the weathering product of
the bedrock it will be possible to determine j0 , c0 by the
standard USCS classification categorized in VSS (1999). An system may serve as reinforcement, and therefore may
example is given in Fig. 4 for a limestone bedrock. Its strengthen the stability of the soil (Schmidt et al. 2001).
weathering product is classified according to the USCS The calculation of stability acknowledged the root strength
classification as SC with the characteristic geotechnical (WK) as additional cohesion force (Meisina and Scarabelli
parameters. 2007). Chok et al. (2004) describe the influence of root
cohesion on the factor of safety F for different depths of
Cohesion (c0 ) root zones (Fig. 5). F increases as the apparent root cohesion
Very often the spatial distribution of the cohesion c0 is an cR increases. It is noted that, when the entire slope is
unknown parameter. Furthermore cohesion varies depending protected by vegetation, the effects on F are significant.
on the natural moisture content and may disappear altogether For example, when hR ¼ 1 F is increased by 26 % for
with total saturation of the subsoil. Due to these uncertainties, cR ¼ 20 kPa. The increase is even more significant with a
several model approaches minimize the influence of cohesion deeper root zone (higher hR).
(Guimarãres et al. 2003) or ignore it (Rickli 2001; Rickli and Hales et al. (2009) describe the spatial variability of root
Bucher 2003). The experiences made with SliDisp show that cohesion in landslide-prone forests. Root tensile forces were
cohesion can be considered in the model (Liener 2000; Tobler consistent among most of the tree species measured. They
and Krummenacher 2004; Riner 2009). postulate higher mean root cohesive strength on noses
(~10 kPa) than in slopes and hollows (5.5 kPa). It is obvious
Root Cohesion WK that the variation in root cohesion between different vegeta-
Vegetation plays an important role in the stability of slopes. tion communities must be significant. But after Schmidt
Among experts, it is disputed whether the root strength et al. (2001) the variation is quantifiable.
should be acknowledged in the stability formula or not. In the model SliDisp+ the root cohesion is taken into
Quantitative performed measurements prove that the root account as a semi-empiric value between 2 and 7 kN/m2,
depending on the relevant soil thickness and characteristics

of vegetation (such as condition, age, and type of the forest
(Riner 2009)). Actual investigations focus on this aspect.
Calculation of the Ground Water Level (m*z)

One of the most difficult issues in landslide susceptibility
modeling is to determine the average height of totally
saturated subsoil or soil. Statistical ground water models
are very often used to calculate the slope stability. These
models do not consider the influence of external aspects
(such as precipitation, snow melt) on the temporal changes
in ground water levels. As for other models, SliDisp assumes
a statistical ground water level running parallel to the sliding
surface.
The ground water level is the product of soil thickness z Fig. 6 Visualization of the saturated zone m*z on an open landslide
and a permeability controlled coefficient m (cf. Fig. 6, scarf, with z ¼ soil thickness and m ¼ permeability coefficient. Red
arrow slip surface and slip direction
Table 2). According to Sidle and Ochiai (2006), this
calculation helps to achieve an improved estimation of the
Table 3 Topographic-Index classes with indication of “t” value for
stability. To consider the influence of the topographical the case study Lauterbrunnen, Switzerland (GEOTEST AG 2011)
convergence at hollows and noses the ground water level is
Class Topo-index range Description Index “t” []
modified by an index “t”. Cox and Davies (2002) as well as
1 <3.0 Nose 0.1
Yang et al. (2005) describe the relationship between the
2 3.0–5.7 Slope 0
permeability and the topographic index (TI, cf. Formula 2)
3 5.7–8.1 Hollows 0.1
by the soil-topographic index, which is a modified TI 4 >8.1 Channels 0.25
that includes a soils component (soil depth and saturated
permeability data). Both indexes are part of the topmodel
concept (Quinn et al. 1995). Based on Agnew et al. (2006) WK þ c0 þ ðg z cos2 b gw gw cos2 bÞ tan’0 KW
F¼
and Riner (2009) the semi-empiric parameter t has a range of g z sinb cosb
0.1–0.0 on noses and 0.1–0.25 in hollows (Table 3). (5)
Thus, the ground water level implemented in the model
SliDisp+ is calculated by:
Calculation of the Saturated Zone (gw)
Depth of saturated zone ¼ ðm þ tÞ z (4) According to SliDisp+
where z ¼ soil thickness, m ¼ permeability coefficient, and According to the calculation of the saturated zone in SliDisp,
t ¼ empiric index for topographic influence. There is a the ground water level is proportional to the soil thickness
hydrological condition for m: 0 < m 1.0. Negative values (Lineback Gritzner et al. 2001). Therefore the proportion of
will be corrected to 0, values >1 to 1.0 (complete saturated material (m + t)*z (Formula 4) referring to the
saturation). total thickness of subsoil z remains constant. This is formally
not correct. Then shallow layers may show a proportionally
higher ground water level than thicker soils (Sidle and
Upgrade from SliDisp to SliDisp+ Ochiai 2006).
With SliDisp+ the ground water level (m + t)*z is
The process model SliDisp has been upgraded with two adjusted by using an empirically determined height, which
important new features. The approach to calculate the varies depending on the thickness of the soil. Following this
ground water level in the subsoil or in debris has been calculation, the water saturated zone may be enlarged in
changed and the impact of joint water (KW) has been con- shallow soils (thickness of 0.3–1 m) by maximally 20 cm;
sidered by implementing a correction value to the stability it may be lowered by maximally 70 cm in deep soils of
formula (Formula 5, red circles for new features). Both 1–3 m. The corrected ground water level is implemented as
features are described in the following two sections. a parameter called “gw” in the stability formula (Formula 5).
42 D. Tobler et al.
Fig. 7 Flow chart for the definition of KW-coefficient (Riner 2009)
Fissure Water Coefficient (KW)
At locations where joints and cracks crop out beneath the

covering soil layer, enormous pore water pressures may
develop. The joint water infiltrates into the potential slip Fig. 8 Investigation area for the review of the hazard map in
surface and may therefore support the triggering of shallow Lauterbrunnen, central Switzerland (Swissmap 2011)
landslides.
The model SliDisp+ implements the susceptibility of joint
water as a qualitative correction value KW into the stability
analysis (Fig. 7). KW may have the value 0 (small influence)
or 2 (large influence); it is taken into account as a “negative”
cohesion in the stability formula (Formula 5).
The parameter KW has to be determined by field
investigations. Therefore the orientation of the bedrock is
essential. Following the decision tree in Fig. 7, the KW
parameter is easy to define.
Case Study Lauterbrunnen, Switzerland
In 2010 model calculations with SliDisp+/SliDepot (runout)

were carried out within the settlements (approx. 30 km2) of Fig. 9 View from the South through the Lauterbrunnen valley with the
the community of Lauterbrunnen during a review of the steep cliffs of limestone and landslide-susceptible deposits in the valley
bottom
existing hazard map (GEOTEST AG 2003).
Lauterbrunnen is situated in central Switzerland at an
altitude of 800–1,500 m a.s.l. (Fig. 8). The bedrock consists flood sedimentation from the river and shows a heteroge-
mainly of schist and sandstones of the Aalenian and the neous layering of material.
Bajocian (Dogger), sandstones of the Oxfordian and
Callovian, as well as compact Malm lime and sediments
from the Tertiary (Günzler-Seiffert 1962). The rock is folded Model Input
in a large scale and disrupted by several steep tectonic
displacements. The weathering-resistant lime and the A detailed geological map is available for the investigation
sandstones form striking steep rock walls falling towards area (1:25,000) as well as numerous event documentations.
the valley bottom (Fig. 9). The schists of the Aalenian are Furthermore, field studies were made for the review of the
very susceptible to landslides (GEOTEST AG 2003, 2007). hazard map (GEOTEST AG 2011). Eighteen different sub-
On both sides of the valley the rock is covered by silty soil types were identified in total. They were classified
moraines, dislocated slope debris and historic deposit from according to USCS (Table 4) and the described method
rock falls. The bottom of the valley consists of fine-grained in previous chapters. The relevant geotechnical parameters
Table 4 Classified underground with input parameters for SliDisp+

(GEOTEST AG 2011)
Type of lose rock/soil USCS-classification F’ [ ] C0 PC
Aalenian schist CL–ML 32.7 0.4 2
Alluvion GP 38 0 5
Marl CL 30.7 4.2 2
Moraine SC 34.8 5.3 2
Tertiary ML >30 % 28.8 11.7 2
Triassic ML 33.9 6.5 2
Slope debris SP–SM 34.4 0 3
PC indicates permeability class number (cf. Table 2)
Fig. 11 Section of the actual hazard map for shallow landslide pro-
cesses of Lauterbrunnen with hazard levels (blue and yellow areas;
green ¼ investigation area; GEOTEST AG 2011). The numbers indi-
cate the field in the intensity-probability diagram (AGN 2004)
through max. eight discharge steps, each of 20 m. For

Lauterbrunnen an excellent event register exists. So the
final number of necessary discharge steps and therefore the
maximal runout range has been calibrated with silent
witnesses from events in 1999 and the event register
(GEOTEST AG 2007). The average angle of reach of all
shallow landslides is 27 and lies within the range postulated
by Dai and Lee (2002).
Fig. 10 Section of the calculated shallow landslide areas in The model results indicate the landslide-prone areas.
Lauterbrunnen (red ¼ source modeled with SliDisp+; brown-yellow ¼ For creating a hazard map process intensities have to be
runout modeled with SliDepot; GEOTEST AG 2011) added. Therefore the additional field investigations focused
(a) on the verification of modeled areas (detachment zones
as well as runout) and (b) on the definition of the process
(j0 , c0 and permeability DL) were derived from laboratory intensities. AGN (2004) defines the different process inten-
tests on four representing samples (Wakatsuki and Matsukura sities in hazard mapping. The actual hazard map is shown in
2008). Fig. 11. Comparing the calculated areas with the hazard map
it is obvious that nearly all hazard zones have a smaller
extension than the modeled process areas. The model results
Results suit for hazard indication maps, but are not precise enough to
derive directly hazard maps.
Figure 10 shows the source areas (detachment zones of
shallow landslides in red) calculated with SliDisp+ as well Conclusion
as the runout areas (brown-yellow) calculated with SliDepot Many uncertainties are not considered in the calculation
(Tobler et al. 2011; GEOTEST AG 2011). SliDepot is an of the detachment zones for shallow landslides. These
absolute GIS modeling. Starting with the data from the uncertainties underlying the model may include the type
defined source zones the distribution of material in a down- of material, mechanism of failure, ground water, the
hill flow direction is calculated. The model focuses on the volume of failure and the geology. The parameters
amount of water within the shallow landslide that will be obtained are applicable to predict the shallow landslide
reduced during the natural process. Finally the lack of susceptibility on regional scales. By employing a GIS, the
process water will determine the point where the distribution analysis helps to identify conflict zones between damage
of material stops (Tobler et al. 2011). potentials and process areas, which again enables effi-
Starting from the dark red areas in Fig. 10 (calculated cient spatial planning or the definition of measurements
source locations for shallow landslides) the runout areas are to protect human lives and the infrastructure (Casadei
modeled by stepwise reducing the original water content et al. 2003).
44 D. Tobler et al.
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Three Dimensional Stability Analysis of the Grohovo
Landslide in Croatia
Chunxiang Wang, Željko Arbanas, Snježana Mihalić, and Hideaki Marui
Abstract
The Grohovo Landslide, situated on the north-eastern slope in the central part of the
Rječina River valley, is the largest active landslide along the Croatian part of the Adriatic
Sea coast. The Grohovo Landslide is also a key pilot area for implementation of the
monitoring activities of the Japanese-Croatian joint research project on “Risk identification
and land-use planning for disaster mitigation of landslides and floods in Croatia”. This
complex retrogressive landslide was reactivated in December 1996. It is considered that the
basal failure surface is positioned at the contact between the slope deposits and the flysch
bedrock. Based on the data from boreholes, geological mapping, geophysical surveys and
the geological cross-section of the slope, the three dimensional shape and the position of the
sliding surface were simulated using the inverse distance weighted interpolation. Using 3D
extended Janbu’s simplified method, global stability of the Grohovo Landslide and stability
of 12 separate landslide bodies were analyzed.
Keywords
Grohovo landslide Slip surface Interpolation 3D stability analysis
Introduction Numerous historical data, figures and maps, which docu-

ment landslides in the Rječina River valley, have found in
The Grohovo Landslide is located on the northeastern slope the Croatian State Archive in Rijeka. These documents pro-
in the central part of the Rječina River valley near the City of vide evidence of the landslides occurrence in the Rječina
Rijeka, Croatia. It is the largest active landslide along the River valley near the Grohovo village. Slidings were first
Croatian part of the Adriatic Sea coast. Just upstream of this time recorded in 1767, when numerous landslides and
landslide, the Valići reservoir with the 35 m high concrete rockfalls in the Rječina River valley were caused by the
gravity dam is situated (Fig. 1). 1750 earthquake, which had an epicenter in the City of
Rijeka. Many landslides triggered by rainfall were noticed
along river banks near the Grohovo village at the end of
C. Wang (*) H. Marui
nineteenth century. A large landslide occurred in 1893 on the
Research Institute for Natural Hazards and Disaster Recovery, Niigata northeastern slope of the Rječina River valley, and the
University, Nishi-ku, Ikarashi ni-no-cho 8050, Niigata City 950-2181, Rječina River channel was shifted to the south for approxi-
Japan mately 50 m (Mihalić and Arbanas 2013).
The most recent large displacement was observed on
Ž. Arbanas 5 December 1996 (Benac et al. 2002). The reactivated land-
Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Rijeka, Viktora Cara Emina
St. 5, Rijeka 51000, Croatia
slide has a volume of approximately 3.0 106 m3, and it
consist of 13 different landslide bodies, including
S. Mihalić
Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering, University of
movements of the carbonate mega-blocks at the top of the
Zagreb, Pierottijeva 6, Zagreb 10000, Croatia slope. During the reactivation, sliding mass completely

48 C. Wang et al.
separate landslide bodies, which have the unique three

dimensional slip surface, were analyzed using a 3D
extended Janbu’s simplified method.
3D Stability Analysis Methods
The Interpolated 3D Slip Surface
The shape and location of slip surface are important in

determining the stability of a slope. There are various
methods to determine this surface. These can be classified
into two main categories. One group assumes a slip surface
to have a particular shape, for example, a straight or curve
line, a circular arc, a log spiral surface (Giger and Krizerk
1975), a part of sphere or ellipsoidal surface (Zhang 1988),
or a surface determined by finite element analysis, and the
other group is for an arbitrary shape slip surface. A method
of random generation of 3D slip surface was recommended
Fig. 1 Location of the Grohovo Landslide by Thomaz and Lovell (1988) and Yamagami and Jiang
(1997). A practical way in using NURBS (Non-Uniform
Rational B-Splines) surface and ellipsoidal surface to simu-
buried the Rječina River channel, and a landslide foot late a three dimensional sliding surface was introduced by
formed a dam and a lake. After sliding, this landslide mass Cheng et al. (2005). In this study, based on the boreholes
was removed immediately from the river channel, data, geological mapping, geophysical surveys and adopted
eliminating the risk of dam collapse and the resulting flood geological cross-sections of the slope, the three dimensional
that could have caused serious damage to the City of Rijeka shape and the position of the sliding surface are simulated
(Benac et al. 2002, 2005). using a revised inverse distance weighted interpolation
The hazard and risk of possible sliding on the flysch method (Zhang 1995).
slopes of the Rječina Valley remain the same 15 years The three dimensional curved surface functions are clas-
after the last large landslides occurred. Landslide occur- sified to monodrome function and multivalue function.
rence is very probable during unfavorable hydrogeological Z ¼ f(x,y) is the monodrome function. It corresponds to
conditions. Recently, Croatian researchers have been only one z, such as the surface of terrain, underground
conducting field investigation, monitoring and basic water surface, and so on. W ¼ f(x,y,z) is the multivalue
research. In order to determine the hazard and risk of possi- function. When two random variables in (x,y,z) coordinates
ble future landslide occurrences using the collected data, it are given, the third variable may have one or more values.
was necessary to perform 3D landslide stability analyses. This curved surface is the spatial hypersurface, such as the
On the north-eastern slope, slope deposits are mostly a underground temperature field. With the continuous chang-
mixture of clayey silt that was formed by weathering of ing of the variable W, the related hypersurface is changed
flysch bedrock and fragments to blocks of limestone with the ladderlike form. Therefore, W ¼ f(x,y,z) is used to
originating from the cliffs placed on the top of the slope. be the fitting function of the strata surface. Before the strata
It is considered that the basal failure surface is positioned at surfaces are fitted, the surfaces should be numbered top-
the contact between the slope deposits and the flysch bed- down. If there are L surfaces, then the number of strata is
rock. Based on the data from boreholes, geological ki ¼ 1, 2, 3. . .L. In each surface, all the discrete data of
mapping, geophysical surveys and reconstruction of the xi ; yi ; zi ; ki ; Ni ; ai ; bi ði ¼ 1; 2 . . . N Þ are necessary, where
geological cross-sections trough the slope, the three dimen- xi ; yi ; zi are the control spatial coordinates, ki is the number
sional shape and the position of the sliding surface were of the stratum; Ni is the symbol of the dip or the dip direction
simulated using a revised inverse distance weighted inter- of one column base surface (slip surface). If Ni ¼ 0, there is
polation method. The whole Grohovo Landslide and twelve no inclination or tendency. When the surface is fitted, the
Three Dimensional Stability Analysis of the Grohovo Landslide in Croatia 49
Fig. 2 Grohovo Landslide map with positions of vertical cross

sections
Fig. 3 The interpolated sliding surface by control points
strata surface of ki must be through this sample point. When
Ni ¼ 2, there are the dip angle ai and the dip direction angle the search radius of No. i point; Si and Ti are used to describe
bi. Not only ki surface must be passed through this sample the position of the tangent plane.
point, but also the ki surface has the same ai and bi as the In the model of the Grohovo Landslide, it is considered
tangent plane passed through this point. N is the total number that the basal failure surface is at the contact between the
of sample points. The following equation is the fitting slope deposits and the flysch bedrock. The thickness of the
function: displaced sliding mass was estimated and the position of slip
surfaces was determined on the basis of the geological
X
M1 mapping and geophysical surveys. Locations of the cross
ri2 ri2 ri2
W ðx; y; zÞ ¼ Ai ln þ 1 þ sections in the Grohovo Landslide are shown in Fig. 2.
R2 R2 R2
i¼1 Figure 3a shows the control points along the cross
MX1 þM2
2
r r2 r2 sections. Figure 3b shows the interpolated slip surface
ðAi þ Bi þ Ci Þ i2 ln i2 þ 1 i2 þ derived using the revised inverse distance weighted interpo-
i¼M1
R R R
2 lation method, on the basis of the control points in the
r r2 r2 vertical cross sections located within the Grohovo Landslide
ðBi Si Ci Ti Þ i2 ln i2 þ 1 i2
R R R and the elevation points of the ground surface.
(1)
where M1 is the number of sample points when there is no 3D Extended Janbu’s Simplified Method
dip or dip direction; M2 is the number of sample points when
there are dip and dip direction; M1 + M2 ¼ N; Ai, Bi and Ci Three dimensional limit equilibrium approaches are widely
are coefficients; R is the max search radius in the calculated used for three dimensional slope stability analyses. Duncan
spatial region; ri2 ¼ ðx xi Þ2 þ ðy yi Þ2 þ ðz zi Þ2 ; ri is (1996) and Chang (2002) reviewed the main aspects of
50 C. Wang et al.
Fig. 4 3D sliding body and forces acting on a column
Fig. 5 Grohovo Landslide: 12 separate landslide bodies

publications dealing with 3D limit equilibrium approaches.
Many researchers have developed different limit equilib-
rium methods. The majority of 3D methods proposed in landslides in talus material (2), lateral landslides in soil
these studies are simply based on extensions of Bishop’s material (3), reactivated landslides (4) and sliding of
simplified, Spencer’s, or Morgenstern and Price’s original separated limestone blocks (5). The geometry of the com-
2D limit equilibrium slice methods. Differences between plex landslide is described in the Table 1, following the WP/
each study arise due to the arbitrary assumptions made WLI suggested nomenclature for landslides (Benac et al.
regarding inter-column forces. The sliding mass is divided 2005; Arbanas et al. 2010).
into a number of columns with vertical interfaces. The Landslide occurrence started with sliding of initial land-
conditions for static equilibrium are used to find the factor slide body (No. 7) and developed during the time laterally
of safety after making assumptions about the forces on (landslide bodies No. 12, 6, 5) and then retrogressively
adjacent columns (Fig. 4). (landslide bodies No. 11, 2, 4, 1, 10, 9, 3) as shown in
Feng et al. (1999) and Jiang et al. (2003) presented a Fig. 5 (Arbanas et al. 2010). Borders between different
simple and practicable 3D equivalent of Janbu’s simplified landslide bodies are clearly expressed on the site. According
method. With reference to Fig. 4, the equation of the 3D to the boreholes data and geological cross-sections, 12 slid-
safety factor is as follows: ing bodies have unique slip surface at the contact between
P
the slope deposits and the flysch bedrock. The landslide
Cij Aij cos bzij þ Wij þ Fzij Uij cos bzij fij bodies No. 1, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10, and 11 are located in the upper
SF3D ¼ P P part of the slope. The landslide bodies No. 2, 5, 6, 7, and 12
Qij Fxij þ Wij þ Fzij tan axij
sec axij are located in the lowers part of the slope. Inclinations of the
fij bedrock surface differ in the lower and upper parts of the
cos bzij þ SF3D sin axij
slope. The physical and geotechnical parameters obtained by
(2) laboratory test and back analyses of 2D slope stability
calculations are listed in Table 2 (Benac et al. 2005). In 3D
where, ij is the number of a column; Cij is the cohesion; fij is analysis, the sliding directions are determined as the angle
the frictional coefficient; Aij is the base area of slip surface; between the possible movement direction and direction of
Qij is the total force of the water pressure acting in the sides x-axis.
of A0 ABB0 and O0 OCC0 ; Wij is the weight of a column; Fxij The groundwater pressure is also considered in this anal-
and Fzij are the x and y component of water pressure which ysis. The groundwater flow in the bedrock varies from very
acts on the slope surface; if the slope elevation is greater than rapid to slow depending on the nature of the deposits. The
the ground water, Fxij ¼ Fzij ¼ 0. axij is the dip direction to quantity of water in the zone of superficial deposit fluctuates
the x-axis; bzij is the dip angle. depending on rainfall conditions, such that it may be surface
flow after periods of intense precipitation. There is evidence
of water flow at the contact between the bedrock and
3D Stability Analysis of the Grohovo Landslide overlying disturbed material of the rupture zone (Benac
et al. 2002, 2005). The data about groundwater levels in
The complex Grohovo Landslide consists of 13 individual the lower part of the slope were taken from the water levels
landslide bodies; those are shown in Fig. 5 and identified as measured in piezometers. In the upper part of the slope, there
follows (Benac et al. 2002, 2005): initial landslide (1), were no piezometers and the groundwater level was assumed
Three Dimensional Stability Analysis of the Grohovo Landslide in Croatia 51
Table 1 Geometry of the complex Grohovo Landslide

Landslide geometry elements Dimension
Total length L ¼ 425 m
Length of the displaced mass Ld ¼ 420 m
Length of the slip surface Lr ¼405 m
Width of the displaced mass Wd ¼ 200 m
Width of the slip surface Wr ¼ 200 m
Depth of the displaced mass Dd ¼ 6–20 m
Depth of the slip surface Dr ¼ 6–9 (20) m
Total height (the height from the crown to the tip of the toe) DH ¼ 165 m
Table 2 Physical and geotechnical parameters Table 3 3D safety factors of the global landslide and 12 separate
landslide bodies
r (kN/m )
3
C (kN/m )2
f( )
Upper part 20 7.5 25 Landslide body Sliding direction ( ) SF3D
Lower part 20 16 16 Slide_global 52 1.35
Bedrock 21 25 32 Slide_1 60 1.38
Slide_2 60 1.54
Slide_3 30 1.02
to be 1~3 m above the contact between the bedrock and the Slide_4 25 1.36
Slide_5 30 1.12
overlying disturbed materials.
Slide_6 30 1.37
Using the adopted parameters, the 3D slope global safety
Slide_7 52 1.40
factor of the complex landslide and 12 separate local land-
Slide_8 52 1.11
slide bodies were calculated (Table 3). The calculations
Slide_9 45 1.56
indicate that No. 3 landslide body, located at the upper part Slide_10 45 2.11
of the slope, has the lowest factor of safety. It is a key unsafe Slide_11 45 1.70
block, such that in this part of the slope new displacements Slide_12 45 1.35
can be expected in the future, e.g. triggered by heavy rainfall
and unfavorable hydrogeological conditions or strong earth-
quake. The 3D safety factor of No. 10 landslide body, unique base slip surface. It is considered that the basal
located at the middle of the landslide, is greater than 2.1 failure surface is at the contact between the slope deposits
due to gently inclined base slip surface. The global safety and the flysch bedrock. In order to determine the hazard
factor of the complex landslide is 1.35, which is greater and risk of possible future landslide occurrences, 3D
than that obtained by the 2D slope stability analysis (Benac landslide stability analyzes were performed.
et al. 2005). In the past, location of critical 3D slip surface is mainly
The distinction in results between 2D and 3D analyses is confined to spherical and ellipsoidal shape and random
not unexpected; it seems very clear that the safety factor for failure surface is seldom considered. Based on the borholes
3D analyses is greater than the safety factor for 2D analyses data, geological mapping, geophysical surveys and
(Hungr et al. 1989; Duncan 1996). Other reasons for greater adopted geological cross-sections of the slope, the three
3D safety factors are: using of the soil strength parameters dimensional shape and the position of the slip surface are
obtained from 2D back analyses; and using geometry of simulated using a revised inverse distance weighted inter-
landslide obtained from present landslide topography, i.e., polation method. Using the 3D extended Janbu’s
landslide reached stable position after sliding. There is also simplified method, the global 3D factor of safety of the
present a lack of groundwater level data that can be crucial complex landslide and factors of safety of 12 separate
for calculation of the present state of the slope stability. landslide bodies were analyzed. The stability analysis
indicates that No. 3 landslide body, located at the upper
Conclusions part of the slope, is a block with the lowest safety factor,
The Grohovo Landslide on the north-eastern slope of the such that in this part of the slope new displacements can be
Rječina River valley is the largest active landslide along occurred in the future, especially triggered by heavy rain-
the Croatian part of the Adriatic Sea coast. Recently, field fall and unfavorable hydrogeological conditions or strong
investigation, monitoring and basic research were earthquake.
conducted by the Croatian researchers. Many individual As a part of the joint research activities in the
movements indicated that there are 13 separate landslide Japanese-Croatian scientific project on “Risk identifica-
bodies. Among them, 12 landslides bodies have the tion and land-use planning for disaster mitigation of
52 C. Wang et al.
landslides and floods in Croatia” which was launched in Chang M (2002) A 3D slope stability analysis method assuming paral-
2008, a comprehensive integrated real-time monitoring lel lines of intersection and differential straining of block contacts.
Can Geotech J 39:799–811
system will be installed in the Grohovo landslide. The Cheng YM, Liu HT, Wei WB, Au SK (2005) Location of critical three-
monitoring system will consist of geodetic and geotech- dimensional non-spherical failure surface by NURBS functions and
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mechanism. Bull Eng Geol Environ 64(4):361–371
Mass Movement Classification Using Morphometric
Parameters (Puebla, Mexico)
Veronica Ochoa-Tejeda, Parrot Jean-François, and Fort Monique
Abstract
The Sierra Norte de Puebla (Mexico) is a tropical mountain frequently affected by torrential
rains induced by depressions and hurricanes. In October 1999 and 2005, intense precipita-
tion triggered hundreds of landslides and caused heavy human losses and material damages.
All the landslides surveyed in the field and their traces extracted from the satellite images
have been analyzed by using morphometric parameters in order to characterize and to
classify them. The spatial distribution of observed landslides types is not random but
responds to both regional structural features and material nature involved in the movement.
It is particularly important to establish these close relationships in order to assess landslide
hazards by using different factors and methods and the approach proposed in this paper
seems to be very useful to do that.
Keywords
Morphometric parameters Landslide classification Sierra Norte de Puebla (Mexico)
Introduction when studying the shallow landslides (Collinson et al. 1995;

Fannin et al. 1996; Garcı́a-Ruiz et al. 2010).
Landslide hazard assessment is based on a landslide suscep- Independently of the classifications established by differ-
tibility evaluation, that is to say the research of the location ent authors (i.e. Hutchinson 1988; Cruden and Varnes 1996),
of potential landslides that can occur in a given region and we assume that the predominant types of landslides are
remobilize specific terrain material (Guinau et al. 2007). It is essentially related to the nature of the material involved in
commonly assumed that the future landslides triggering the process (soils, colluvial deposits, talus deposits and talus
obey to the same conditioning parameters than those breccias, uncovered rock zones). In the case of rock sliding
observed in the past and the present (Varnes 1984; Carrara and rock avalanches, eventually coarse debris flows, the
et al. 1995; Jadda et al. 2009). Such an analysis requires structural geologic factor plays a predominant role (Ochoa-
estimating the terrain failure susceptibility and the behavior Tejeda 2004), since the presence of faults, fractures, as well
of the remobilized material (Glade et al. 2005; Hürlimann as planes of weakness (schistosity, joints, etc.), work like
et al. 2006) as well as the land cover changes particularly zones that supply the gravitational movements.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze, in a context of
dense vegetation, all the landslides surveyed in the field as
well as their traces extracted from satellite images. This ana-
V. Ochoa-Tejeda (*) F. Monique lysis is mainly based on morphometric parameters, and has
Université Paris Diderot, Sorbonne-Paris-Cité, UMR PRODIG been developped in order to characterize and to classify the
8586 – CNRS, Paris cedex 13, France
e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]
mass movements. High resolution satellite images and high
resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) generated by a
P. Jean-François
LAGE, Instituto de Geografı́a, UNAM, Mexico City, Mexico
multidirectional interpolation (Parrot and Ochoa-Tejeda
e-mail: [email protected] 2005) have been used with such a goal. Actually IKONOS

54 V. Ochoa-Tejeda et al.
images give not only information about land cover, presence

of bare and water surfaces, influence and extent of human
settlements, vegetation cover and area of fragmentation, but
can also be used to identify the different types of landslides
that occurred in the study region by means of photo interpre-
tation (Nichol et al. 2006) or using the semi-automated
method developed by Ochoa-Tejeda and Parrot (2007).
We assume that it is possible to define geographical
unstable zones in a simple way and then to characterize the
type of events susceptible to be expected in a more or less
short time according to the type of geological formation that
would be involved in the mass movement. Fig. 1 Localization of the studied zone
Studied Area
The Sierra Norte de Puebla (Mexico) is a tropical mountain

frequently affected by torrential rains inducing regularly
hundreds of landslides that affect steep hillslopes mainly
formed by intensively folded and fractured metamorphic
rocks and weathered sedimentary formations both covered
by slope deposits of variable thickness.
This mountain is situated in the province of Puebla
located within the transition of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic
Belt (TMVB) and the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains
mainly formed by Mesozoic sedimentary rocks. The
TMVB consists of Late Tertiary and Quaternary volcanic
formations essentially of calc-alkaline type (Alva-Valdivia
et al. 2000).
The studied sub-scene is centered on the 135 km2 region
of La Soledad Lake (Fig. 1), where 98 landslides recorded by
the Regional Civil Protection Unit of Puebla, actually 144
observed on the satellite image, have been triggered by
torrential rainfalls in October 1999. Fig. 2 Geological map of the study zone. Qa-Ix Xaltipan formation
In this zone located between 19 530 and 20 000 (North (Quaternary Ignimbrites), Qa-Tb Quaternary andesitic tuffs; Plio-Tz
latitudes) and 97 250 and 97 300 (W longitudes), the main Teziutlan formation (andesitic flows and tuffs), JS-Tp Taman-Pimienta
geological units are ranging from Palaeozoic to Quaternary formation (marls and limestone), JM-Tx Tenexcate formation
(sandstones and conglomerates), JI-Hy Huayacocotla formation
ages (Angeles-Moreno and Sánchez-Martı́nez 2002). (sandstones and shale), Xucayucan mylonitic complex: Mi El Mirador
The Palaeozoic formations are represented by mylonites (metamorphosed basaltic rocks); Cz Cozolexco (metabasaltes);
and strongly deformed phyllonites originally defined as Cc Chicuaco (schist); La Soledad mylonitic complex [Cs] ¼ gneisses;
Xucayucan schists. Mesozoic folded sedimentary rocks over- r intrusive rhyolites
lay discordantly the Palaeozoic deposits and comprise
limestones, sandstones, lutites, limolites and conglomerates. Moreover, this zone is characterized by the development of
Tertiary deposits from the Pliocene are formed by andesitic different superficial formations (regolith, old landslide deposits)
lava flows up to 300 m thick intercalated with volcanic tuffs. that are easily remobilized by the frequent torrential rains
Quaternary materials are composed of dacitic and rhyolitic affecting this tropical region. The behavior of different types
pyroclastic deposits derived from the activity of the Los of material can therefore be studied in this very limited zone.
Humeros caldera, which is situated 35 km southwards of the The reinterpreted geologic map (Ochoa-Tejeda 2009,
studied area. These materials overlay both Mesozoic and 2010) takes into account field observation and the information
Tertiary deposits. provided by INEGI (1994), Mooser (2000) and Angeles-
Moreno and Sanchez-Martinez (2002). We reported (Fig. 2)
Mass Movement Classification Using Morphometric Parameters (Puebla, Mexico) 55
landslide locations as the traces extracted from the Ikonos

image for the 1999 event, and as points for the more recent
mass movements.
Methodological Approach
All the landslides surveyed in the field and their traces

extracted as previously described from the satellite images,
have been analyzed by using morphometric parameters in
order to characterize and to classify them. Some parameters
are directly related with the shape of studied landslides: for Fig. 3 The Jarvis’s march procedure
instance, the surface S, the perimeter P, the ratio between
these two parameters, as well as the presence of holes that studied shape, to define the relation existing between these
allows defining a porosity index. two values, etc. This approach requires to research the gravity
The simplest method used to measure the surface consists center (GC) and to define the principal axis (PA) passing
to calculate the total number of pixels Nbp belonging to the through the gravity center. The gravity center GC with
connected component; but according to Pratt (1978), coordinates Xc, Yc and the second order moments mxx, myy
another and mxy are equal to:
P approach
P consists to consider the surface as
S ¼ PS þ PP =2, where PS are the pixels that strictly
1 X 1 X
Nbp Nbp
belong to the surface and PP the pixels describing the peri-
meter. The surface in m2 or km2 is obtained by multiplying Xc ¼ Xi Yc ¼ Yi
Nbp i¼1 Nbp i¼1
S by the value of the pixel surface. There are some more
accurate methods that take into account the configuration of X
Nbp X
Nbp
mxx ¼ ð Xi Xc Þ 2 myy ¼ ðYi Yc Þ2
Pp and the neighboring pixels in order to know exactly the i¼1 i¼1
portion of the pixel Pp that belongs to the surface (Parrot X
Nbp
2007). The perimeter P corresponds either to the total num- mxy ¼ ð X i X c Þ ð Yi Y c Þ
ber of pixels (Np) describing the perimeter or to the length i¼1
(Lp) of this perimeter measured by using the length of the
segment linking two successive pixel centers. Nbp is the total number of pixels and Xi Yi the coordinates of
Taking into account the values of the former parameters, a pixel i.
it is possible to define various ratios such as for The principal axis PA that passes through GC is equal to:
example
the
ratio perimeter/surface [in pixels] r ¼ Np Nbp 100, tg ð2aÞ ¼ 2mxy myy mxx if myy mxx 6¼ 0. When the
the ratio perimeter
versus surface [in meters and square difference between mxx and myy is equal to 0, the connected
meters] y ¼ Lp =S 100 or the circularity index $ ¼ component does not present any orientation. Otherwise, the
ðP2 =SÞ 100. PA orientation is calculated clockwise in degrees (from 0 to
The notion of porosity characterizes topographically het- 180 , 0 corresponding to the north). It is also possible to
erogeneous ensembles as encountered in some landslides, compute all the distances between GC and all the perimeter
especially in the case of rotational landslides (graben-like pixels; in this case, PA corresponds to the perpendicular to
structures). The calculation is as follow: the straight line that links GC and the closest pixel belonging
to the perimeter. It is then possible to measure the length and
2 3
P width of the rectangle circumscribing the studied landslide
P
x ¼ 4P 5
P Pp 100
h
P surface and calculate its ratio. As the principal axis PA
Ph þ P s þ 2 intersects the shape perimeter in two points (D1 and D2),
the direction D of the landslide can be computed (Ochoa-
Tejeda and Parrot 2007). The relative hypsometric values of
where Ps and Pp are all the pixels describing the shape D1 and D2 permit to define a minimum (Amin) and a maxi-
(surface and perimeter) and Ph the pixels corresponding to mum (Amax). The direction D of the landslide corresponds to
the holes. the straight line that links GC and Amin. The measurement
Another way to describe the shape is to compare this shape of the direction, especially in the case of shallow
and some plain shapes such as the rectangle, the circle or the (hypersaturated) debris slides allows defining zones that
smaller convex zone that circumscribes the studied item. It is present an uniform slope gradient related to the triggering
then possible to measure the length and the width of the of such superficial mass movements.
There are many different procedures that allow defining a a

convex zone. Among them, the Jarvis’s march such as it is 50
A
described by Akl and Toussaint (1978) is a simple algorithm 40
Width (pixels)
that efficiently draws a convex contour (Fig. 3).
30
The surface of the convex zone Sc (or the total number of
pixels Ntc of this zone) and its perimeter Pc calculated in 20
B
pixels or in meters allows calculating several parameters: the 10
ratio S/Sc or the relation Nbp/Ntc that both correspond to two
convexity indices based on the surface, the ratio Pc/Pp 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
(perimeter convexity or external roughness index) or Ph/Ntc
Length (pixels)
(porosity inside the convex zone). b
100
Results 80
B
60
Pc / Pp
The morphometric parameters as well as the relationships
between each other allow defining accurately the 40
characteristics of the different extracted traces produced in A
the landscape by slope movements. Only two diagrams are 20
reported here in order to illustrate some of the characteristics
of these traces. The graph width versus length (Fig. 4a) reveals 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
that, except for two items, small landslides essentially form a
Surface (S)
dense group of linear type; the relation width/length ranges
from 0.2 to 0.8 with an average of 0.55; 40 % of the traces Fig. 4 Two examples of parameters correlation
display a relation equal or inferior to 0.5 % and 24 % of them
are inferior or equal to 0.4.
Two bigger landslides are present. The first one (symbol
A in the Fig. 6) corresponds to a rotational landslide in the
region of San Jose Chagchaltzin; it has an almost circular
form (relation width/length of 0.82) with a width size of
238 m and a length of 289 m. The second landslide (symbol
B in the Fig. 6) is located northwards the El Dos village; its
length is equal to 480 m and the width to 90 m; the ratio
width/length of this linear structure is equal to 0.18.
Figure 4b establishes the existing relation between the
external roughness index Pc/Pp and the surface S. The more
the index value decreases, the more irregular will be the
studied shape. The majority of the studied landslides are Fig. 5 Landslide classification using the diagram
perimeter
convexity
grouped in the zone corresponding to small landslides hav- Pc/Pp versus the ratio perimeter/surface y ¼ Lp =S 100
ing an almost regular form; the external roughness index of
the cluster gravity center is equal to 75. Even if the large versus surface y allows classifying better the different traces
debris flow B is more elongated, it has the same Pc/Pp value. extracted from the Ikonos satellite image (see Fig. 5).
For the large rotational landslide A, even if it is almost It is then possible to define six classes taking into account
circular, the great irregularity of its contour related to the ranges of common values of these two parameters.
heterogeneous topography during the rotational sliding The parameter y in fact reflects the globularity of a shape.
implies a low value of the external roughness index. It Regardless of its length a line has a y value equal to 100. This
should be noted that the porosity parameter of this item is value decreases when this line thickens. Thus for a circle the
the highest obtained in the studied zone. size of which is greater than 150 pixels, the value y is lower or
All the possible combinations between the various equal to 10 and this value decreases when the circle is
parameters calculated in such a way have been tested; finally, growing.
because these indices present a weak correlation creating the Dividing the y axis in three groups, high, medium and low
strongest dispersion of all the points, the graph between the values, it may be noted that shallow debris slides correspond
perimeter convexity index Pc/Pp and the ratio perimeter to y values >60, debris flow developed in slope deposits
Fig. 6 Repartition of the mass

movement families in the studied
region
have y values comprised between 40 and 60, and many other

features have a value <40. Among these latter, a few items
(large debris flows and complex movements) have a peri-
meter convexity index value <50.
The last mentioned group corresponds to a very thick
line, reason why its y value is lower than 40, and the low
value of the perimeter convexity index Pc/Pp indicates that
the shape corresponds to a broken line (constrained by thalweg).
The following group (Pc/Pp between 50 and 80)
corresponds to thick lines which present a slightly curved
contour; all the debris avalanches are comprised in this group.
Finally convex forms have a Pc/Pp value greater than 80.
Fig. 7 Position of the October 1999 mass movements (extracted from
Actually, according to field observations, it is possible to the satellite image) and the landslides detected at the end of 2005
introduce a division in this last group.
We obtain then a class where are located the entirely convex related to older slope deposits. Debris avalanches (5) are
shape of high globularity (y > 18) and another one where mainly observed in the folded and fractured metamorphic
convex shape not so globular (18 > y > 40); this distinction formations and the complex movements (6) are related to
allows to sort out rotational from translational landslides. uncovered rock zones.
A label and a color are attributed to the different traces
according to the landslide class they belong to. As shown by
the Fig. 6, the six classes are not randomly distributed and Discussion
different groups are perfectly distinguishable.
As presented in this figure, the shallow debris slides (1) are According to the classification provided by using morphomet-
located on thin colluviums that especially cover the metamor- ric parameters, it is obvious that the distribution of the differ-
phic rocks, and the debris slides (2) occur on thicker ent mass movement types is not random, but corresponds to
colluviums that correspond to a mixture of soils and broken the material that can be involved in the movement. This is
metamorphic and sedimentary elements. The translational and particularly clear for the linear traces remobilizing slope
rotational landslides (respectively 3 and 4) are essentially deposits. Thus it was possible to define geographical unstable
Fig. 8 Cumulative pluviometric

curves during 7 years (1998 untill
2005)
zones in a simple way and to characterize the type of events more difficult to classify. Even if the method needs some
susceptible to be expected in a more or less short time improvements in the definition of adaptive parameters to
according to the type of material that would be involved in avoid this weakness, the algorithm is easy to implement
the mass movement. For instance, on the main road linking and the output is obtained rapidly enough so that it can
Tlatlauquitepec and Atotocoyan (Fig. 7), shallow slides and directly be used and implemented in crisis management by
superficial debris flows triggered by 2005 rainfall took place the authorities when infrastructures and populations are
exactly at the location considered after the 1999 event as severely impacted by landslides occurrences.
an unstable hillslope covered by thick unconsolidated
colluviums. Conclusion
The soil behaviour depends on its texture, porosity and We propose here a new method for extracting landslide
mineralogical composition. In the present case, the colluvial traces from satellite images. The study area is a tropical
formation reported in Fig. 7 comes from weathering, erosion mountain frequently subjected to torrential rains, and
and degradation of the upper part of the metamorphic for- characterized by relatively dense vegetation cover and a
mation. It is a very heterometric, easily broken material with variety of geological and superficial formations. The land-
a high porosity, and it can be rapidly saturated as it was the slide traces were analyzed in using a set of morphometric
case in 1999 and 2005. parameters, including perimeter, surface, convexity,
Parrot and Ochoa-Tejeda (2009) and Ochoa-Tejeda and porosity, and defining some specific ratios. The method
Fort (2011) have recently shown the relationship existing developed here allows characterizing and classifying easily
between heavy rain periods (tropical hurricane) and the different landslide types. It appears quite robust for
hillslope behaviour, hence mass movement types. For identifying linear landslide types such as shallow debris
instance, as it occurred in 1999 (see Fig. 8), when a slides, triggered by intense hurricane rains and causing
sequence of 3 days of intense rainfall was followed by a most damages to the population and infrastructure. This
pause of 2–3 days, then by another short period of intense method appears as fairly simple and rapid to implement,
showers, the material remobilized by the mass movements and its results are robust enough, so that it can be applied in
affected not only the superficial slope deposits, but also other tropical regions as a useful tool in crisis management
uncovered rock zones. When the rainfall interruption is following landslide occurrences in areas of difficult access.
shorter as it occurred in 2005, the landslides affect mainly
superficial formations, and may reactivate previous land-
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The 2010 Muddy-Debris Flow of Angangueo
(Mexico): Modelling and Simulation
Jean-François Parrot and Veronica Ochoa-Tejeda
Abstract
In tropical mountainous regions, heavy rainfalls often induce landslides and mudflows.
Mexico is continually subjected to natural hazards. In February 2010 the town of
Angangueo in the state of Michoacan was devastated by a huge muddy debris flow. Use
of morphological and climatic parameters of the affected areas can be incorporated into a
model that simulates the extension of this natural disaster. It appears that zones whose slope
aspect is against the flow direction represent the most vulnerable zones. The model
described herein can easily and rapidly be applied to any other tropical region to reliably
prevent such catastrophic phenomena. Because in many areas the colluvial slope deposits
register multiple cracks and active scars, an assessment of the risk related to slope
movements in Mexico is essential.
Keywords
Mudflow Modeling and simulation Angangueo Michoacán state (Mexico)
Introduction flowing onto the sedimentary layers (Tognacca et al. 2000;

Berti and Simoni 2005; Griffiths et al. 2004; Coe et al. 2008;
Observations of climatic change at a local scale are consis- Gregoretti and Dalla Fontana 2008; Fanti et al. 2010);
tent with those obtained at a global scale. Unusual variation a debris flow occurs when the runoff in a thalweg is greater
of precipitation can include torrential rains that, in a single than a critical value calculated empirically.
event, can reach 150 mm on the plain and 250 mm in Muddy-debris flows often arise from slope-related
mountainous regions. Heavy and persistent rainfalls in factors. Shallow landslides that dam up riverbeds frequently
mountainous areas can erode and modify the hill slope result in temporary water blockage; this can markedly
profiles and induce mudflows that are able to move stones, increase the volume of the flowing mass subsequently
boulders and even trees (Mei et al. 2001). These heavy released, which in turn takes up the debris in the stream
rainfalls and subsequent high levels of ground water flowing channel. The resulting solid–liquid mixture can reach
through cracked bedrock may trigger movement of sediment densities up to 2 tons/m and velocities up to 14 m/s (Chiarle
or soil when the slope material becomes saturated. and Luino 1998; Arattano 2003).
The movement of debris flows either in a thalweg or on Some broad mudflows are viscous and therefore slow
the hill slopes depends on the erosive power of the water (some m/s). Others begin very quickly and end like an
avalanche. They are composed of at least 50 % silty and
clayey material and up to 30 % water. Models that predict
J.-F. Parrot (*) mudflow and debris flow velocities have been tested with
LAGE, Instituto de Geografia, UNAM, Mexico City, Mexico
350 field and laboratory measurements (Julien and Paris
2010).
V. Ochoa-Tejeda
Université Paris Diderot, Sorbonne-Paris 7, UMR PRODIG
Ground movements are generated by two sets of factors:
8586 – CNRS, France on one hand, natural conditions that control slope stability

62 J.-F. Parrot and V. Ochoa-Tejeda
and on the other hand, factors of climatic or anthropogenic technical means, without prior understanding of the
origin (Dikau et al. 1996; Lang et al. 1999; Dai et al. 2002; morphoclimatic and hydrological dynamics prevailing in
Glade and Crozier 2005). Despite recent significant prog- these subtropical mountains.
ress, the respective contribution of each factor to the mass The area mainly affected in February 2010 lies between
movement or its reactivation is still not well understood the two blue points (Fig. 2a, b), where there was consider-
(Guzzeti et al. 1999; Van Asch et al. 2007). able damage (Fig. 3) and the Catingon mine at the conflu-
Mexico is subjected to various natural hazards such as ence between Puerco river and Charco river (red point) was
earthquakes, floods and mass movements. Landslides newly destroyed (Fig. 4).
generated by intense precipitations caused by hurricanes or The material mobilized by the landslides corresponds to
tropical depressions constitute the most frequent hazard colluvial deposits resulting from alteration and fragmenta-
regularly affecting this country. Each year sees a drastic tion of the volcanic formation. These colluvial deposits vary
increase in the damage and number of casualties. in particle size, ranging from clay layers containing
Between 2 and 5 February 2010, continuous rains were centimetric fragments up to clusters of boulders of metric
recorded in the town of Angangueo (State of Michoacán) size (Fig. 5).
with a peak of more than 200 mm on 4 February. The town Many slopes still show dislodgement of these colluviums,
was devastated by a huge muddy debris flow causing con- and multiple cracks and active scars, foreshadowing future
siderable loss and damage (33 fatalities, 61 disappearances, mass movements. Recent accumulation areas were observed
5,000 people moved from their homes and 40 % of the urban on the river banks upstream of Angangueo. We assume that
structures destroyed or damaged). The behaviour of soil landslides are consecutive to saturation of colluvial deposits
saturation has been shaped by the pluviometry, especially through a temporary retention of water, an event followed by
with four consecutive rainy days are observed (Parrot and a sudden discharge of mud flows. The first step in the
Ochoa-Tejeda 2009; Ochoa-Tejeda and Fort 2011), following simulation is based on this observation.
Landsliding is not limited to the spread of the rock mass
on the slopes, but may also affect the valley bottoms. For
instance, landslides can cause partial or total obstruction of
Method
the thalwegs leading to inflection of the river path or
upstream flooding. The sudden rupture of this temporary
A simulation was used to analyze the 2010 disaster, to define
dam can provoke disastrous floods carrying huge amounts
the total amount of mobilized material and to assess local
of sediment that destroy infrastructure, roads and homes in
vulnerability inside the narrow valley where the town lies.
the valley bottom where the rare flat spaces correspond to
The modeling takes into account the following considerations
alluvial terraces.
based on field observations: (1) mass movements are not
confined to the spread of the rock mass slopes, but may also
affect the valley bottom; (2) landslides occurring upstream of
Area Studied the city created a temporary dam that retained a part of the
water flux coming from mountainsides; (3) the pressure of
Angangueo is a mining city in Michoacán state (Fig. 1). The water flows breached the temporary dam and generated a
city stretches along the Puerco river, a narrow and deep large mudflow composed of a mixture of water and soils
valley between the Chincua Sierra and the Sierra Rancho derived from slope colluviums; (4) during its displacement,
Grande where the Monarca butterfly sanctuaries are located. the mudflow dislodged debris and boulders on its passage; and
From upstream to downstream, there are three Lead Zinc (5) the mudflow volume increased with contributions from the
mines (El Ventilador, Catingon and San Luis). tributary streams.
The ubiquity of landslides in the Angangueo area is Following this scenario, taking into account the total
mainly related with: (a) the Pleistocene volcanic material volume available and doing successive approximations of
that forms the basement and its geo-structural characteristics; the mudflow thickness, we could estimate the extension of
(b) frequent earthquakes in the neighboring regions of the mud and debris flow and localize the affected zones.
Tlalpujahua and Zitácuaro; (c) extraordinary and intense In assessing the risk related to muddy-debris flows in the
rainfalls inducing severe soil saturation and consequently study area, the research takes into account the following
the loss of cohesion and local failures; (d) slope disturbance three axes:
in relation with animal activity and slope excavations; (e) the – Identification of potential hazards and dangerous
rapid development of road networks carried out with minimal areas. Field study is essential to accomplish this goal.
The 2010 Muddy-Debris Flow of Angangueo (Mexico): Modelling and Simulation 63
Fig. 1 Location of the studied 116 100°16’
19°39’
32
zone UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
UNITED
STATES GULF
OF OF
MEXICO MEXICO
Michoacan
PA
CIF
IC O
CE CENTRAL
AN
0 100 200 300 400 AMERICA
14 kilometers
116 88
19°37’
100°17’ Scale 1: 50000
0 0.5 1 2Km
Fig. 2 (a) Affected zones reported on a 3D Google earth image. (b) Drainage network.. Points 1 and 2: upper and lower limits of the area affected
by debris flow. February 2010. Point 3: confluence of the Puerco and Charco rivers
Fig. 5 Types of material involved in the process. (a) Clay layers

containing rocky fragments. (b) Clusters of boulders of metric size
Fig. 3 Examples of damaged zones along the river bed and the inter-
vention of the Michoacán State Civil Protection Authority during the
disaster
Fig. 4 Lead zinc Catingon mine. (a) Google earth image acquired
September 3, 2006. (b) Mine destruction from February 2010 (Photo-
graph, June 2010)
In particular we need to distinguish the “favorable”

factors that promote a priori slope instability (type of
material and faults), the triggering factors (precipitation),
the predisposing factors (fluvial erosion on the slopes)
and the aggravating factors (road construction, slope Fig. 6 Example of volumetric calculation in a catchment area taking
modification related to human activity). into account the lateral contributions as shown in Fig. 7. In red the
– Characterization of the mud flows. Mud flows must be whole catchment area above 2,837 m
studied with the help of topographic documents, dia-
chronic satellite images and high-resolution Digital Ele- data type, it is possible to obtain a DEM good enough to
vation Model (DEM) to link frequency and magnitude. realize the simulation. The pixel resolution is 5 m and the
– Vulnerability evaluation. Vulnerability is estimated at vertical scale is centimeters.
several levels and dynamically according to the existing
interactions between the active elements of the physical
environment and of human activities. Results
The method is based on field data and on a high-
resolution DEM derived from a multidirectional interpola- The modeling involves the following steps:
tion (Parrot and Ochoa-Tejeda 2005) applied on 1:50,000 (a) Calculation of the available fluid volume at the trigger-
contour lines. Despite a few inherent artifacts related to this ing point of the mass movement; this calculation is based
The 2010 Muddy-Debris Flow of Angangueo (Mexico): Modelling and Simulation 65
Fig. 7 Example of lateral inputs between 2,836 and 2,737 m a.s.l.,

calculated every 5 m (DEM resolution)
Fig. 9 Simulation of the flow extension according to the thickness of

the flux
Fig. 8 Puerco and Charco profiles
on the rainfall rate and the surface area of the catchment

(Fig. 6). This step also includes an estimation of the
volume of the mobilized material to determine the vis-
cosity of the mudslide since the viscosity is, with the
slope, one of the factors that define the velocity of the
movement.
It is also necessary to calculate all the inputs received
laterally along the river course (Fig. 7). The calculated
volume depends on the local catchment configuration
(Fig. 8). For instance, at the confluence between the Fig. 10 Example of an area where slope aspect is against the flow
Puerco and Charco rivers (2,735 m a.s.l.), the volume direction. Circle in the bottom right corner: palette progressing from
of the water collected in the two catchment areas is, 0 to 360 . Arrows: slope aspect is against the flow direction
decomposed in vectors
respectively, 3,54,687.5 and 3,82,972.5 m3 for a
100 mm rainfall.
(b) Calculation of the maximum height reached by the the initial catchment area and lateral inputs, the maxi-
flooding according to the volumes of water available at mum thickness of the mud flow reaches 1.80 m. The
the starting point (Fig. 9); according to this, for a given balance is negative for 2 m (in red in the figure) and
volume of water (in this case 250,000 m3) derived from positive for a value of 1.5 m (in green in the figure) or
1 m (in blue in the figure). In the last case, the flow even Chiarle M, Luino F (1998) Colate detritiche torrentizie innescate dal
reaches the city lying 5 km from the starting point. nubifragio dell’8 luglio 1996 sul M. Mottarone (VB-Piemonte).
Convegno Internazionale: “La prevenzione delle catastrofi
(c) Research of the more vulnerable points within the idrogeologiche: il contributo della ricerca scientifica”, Alba, CN,
thalweg, presumed to correspond to zones whose slope 5–7 novembre 1996. vol II, pp 231–245
aspect is against the flow direction (Fig. 10). Coe JA, Cannon SH, Santi PM (2008) Introduction to the special issue
The aspect is calculated and reported in an image that on debris flows initiated by runoff, erosion, and sediment entrain-
ment in western North America. Geomorphology 96:247–249
does not present any rupture as generally observed in this Dai FC, Lee CF, Ngai YY (2002) Landslide risk assessment and
kind of document. The painter palette permits a progression management: an overview. Eng Geol 64:65–87
from red corresponding to the North (0 ) to yellow (120 ) Dikau R, Brunsden D, Schrott L, Ibsen ML (1996) Landslide recogni-
passing through orange tones, and then from yellow to blue tion: identification, movement and causes. Wiley, Chichester/
Royaume Uni, 274p
(240 ) passing through green tones and finally coming back Fanti R, Gigli G, Morelli S, Arreygue Rocha E (2010) The catastrophic
to the red passing through violet tones. debris-flow of Minatitlan (Colima, Mexico): description and
Zones where the slope aspect is against the flow direction modeling. In: Proceedings of mountain risks: bringing science to
decomposed in vectors are considered as particularly vulner- society, Firenze, 24–26 Nov 2010, pp 243–248
Glade T, Crozier MJ (2005) The nature of landslide hazard and impact.
able regions (see white arrows). In: Glade T, Anderson MG, Crozier MJ (eds) Landslide hazard and
risk. Wiley, London, pp 43–74
Conclusion Gregoretti C, Dalla Fontana G (2008) The triggering of debris flow
Simulations allowed assessment of the extension of the due to channel-bed failure in some alpine headwater basins of
the Dolomites: analyses of critical runoff. Hydrol
mud and debris flow observed in Angangueo according to Process 22:2248–2263
different scenarios. Such an approach permits objective Griffiths PG, Webb RH, Melis TS (2004) Frequency and initiation of
definition of the vulnerability of each point along the river debris flows in Grand Canyon, Arizona. J Geophys Res 109
in order to take measures to prevent or alleviate disaster (F04002):1–14
Guzzeti F, Carrara A, Cardinali M, Reichenbach P (1999)
effects. Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and
The method requires a modeling that takes into their application in a multi-scale study, central Italy. Geomorphol-
account the landscape configuration, the type of material ogy 31:181–216
involved in the movement, the pluviometric rate and a Julien PY, Paris A (2010) Flow velocities for mudflows and debris
flows. J Hydraul Eng 136(9):676–679
realistic scenario. It is then possible to assess the muddy Lang A, Moya J, Coromina S, Schrott L, Dikau R (1999) Classic and
debris flow extension and localize the affected zones. new dating methods for assessing the temporal occurrence of mass
Among them, zones whose slope aspect is against the movements. Geomorphology 30:33–52
flow direction seem to be the most vulnerable zones. Mei CC, Liu KF, Yuhi M (2001) Mud flow – slow and fast. In:
Provencale A, Balmforth N (eds) Geomorphological fluid mechan-
Results obtained easily and rapidly by this method can ics, vol 582, Lecture notes in physics. Springer, Berlin/New York,
be applied in other tropical regions in order to allow crisis pp 548–577
management by the authorities. Presently, in many areas Ochoa-Tejeda V, Fort M (2011) Relation entre la pluviométrie et le
upstream of Angangueo, the colluvial slope deposits reg- déclenchement des glissements de terrain dans La Soledad, Sierra
Norte de Puebla, Mexique. Bull Assoc Géogr Fr 1:27–34
ister multiple cracks and active scars that presage future Parrot J-F, Ochoa-Tejeda V (2005) Generación de Modelos Digitales
mass movements. An assessment of the risk related to de Terreno Raster. Método de digitalizacion. Geografı́a para el
slope movements in Mexico appears essential. Siglo XXI, UNAM, 31p
Parrot J-F, Ochoa-Tejeda V (2009) Auto-related fractal analysis of
triggering factors and landslide assessment. An example from the
References Sierra Norte de Puebla, Mexico. In: 6th annual meeting AOGS,
Singapore, 11–15 Aug 2009
Arattano M (2003) Monitoring the presence of the debris-flow front and Tognacca C, Bezzola GR, Minor HE (2000) Threshold criterion for
its velocity through ground vibration detectors. In: Rickenmann D, debris-flow initiation due to channel-bed failure. In: Wieczorek GF,
Wieczorek GF (eds) Debris-flow hazards mitigation: mechanics, Naeser ND (eds) Debris-flow hazards mitigation: mechanics, pre-
prediction, and assessment. Proceedings of the 3rd international diction and assessment. A. A. Balkema, Rotterdam, pp 89–97
conference, Davos, Switzerland, 10–12 Sept 2003. Mill Press, Van Asch TWJ, Malet JP, Van Beek LPH, Amitrano D (2007)
Rotterdam Techniques, issues and advances in numerical modelling of land-
Berti M, Simoni A (2005) Experimental evidences and numerical slide hazard. Bull Soc Géol Fr 178(2):65–88
modelling of debris flow initiated by channel runoff. Landslides
2(3):171–182
A Rock Fall Analysis Study in Parnassos Area,
Central Greece
George Papathanassiou, Vasilis Marinos, Dimitris Vogiatzis,

and Sotiris Valkaniotis
Abstract
The paper presents the kinematics of rock instability of a high promontory, where Tithorea
village is situated, in the Central Greece peninsula. The instability phenomena pose a
significant threat on the town situated immediately down slope. Rock fall episodes occurred
in the past, as it has been noted by local authorities and published reports. A more recent
rockfall is investigated in this paper, which caused considerable damages to two village
houses. The detailed rock fall path was mapped obtaining more than 15 hit points and rolled
on different scree and vegetation material till it stopped and crushed upon the house roofs.
The predominant types of kinematic instability are of planar or wedge failure and toppling
of large blocks. In order to investigate the existing stability conditions and decide upon the
protection measures, rockfall analysis was carried out. Such an analysis can be compared in
detail with the actual situation, since the geometrical data of the recent rockfall incident are
very accurate. On the other hand, other parameters of rockfall hazard such as the run-out
distance of the boulders was examined.
Keywords
Rockfall Hazard Limestone Protection measures Run-out distance Tithorea Greece
Introduction with geological conditions favourable to instability (Rouiller

et al. 1998).
A rock fall is a fragment of rock detached by sliding, toppling The detachment of rock from bedrock slope is triggered by
or falling that falls along a vertical or sub-vertical cliff, several factors such as weathering, earthquake and human
proceeds down slope by bouncing and flying along ballistic activities while the fall of a rock is determined by factors
trajectories or by rolling on talus or debris slopes (Varnes like the slope morphology and the properties of the direct
1978). Very occasionally, rockfall initiates catastrophic debris surrounding of the potential falling rock (Dorren 2003). The
streams, which are even more dangerous (Hsu 1975). Distinct generation of a rockfall is a rapid phenomenon and represents
evidences of rockfall are talus slope deposits at the foot of a continuous hazard in mountain areas worldwide. There are
steep cliff faces, but also on slopes covered with vegetation numerous examples of infrastructure destroyed or people
where evidence is less distinct. Minor rockfalls can be met in killed by rockfall. To protect endangered residential areas
almost all the rock slopes, whereas large size ones such as and infrastructure, it is necessary to assess the risk posed by
cliff falls and rock avalanches, affect only great rock slopes rockfall.
On December 19, 2010, a rockfall event took place at the
mountainous area of Parnassos inducing structural damages
at the village of Tithorea. According to the examination of
G. Papathanassiou (*) V. Marinos D. Vogiatzis S. Valkaniotis the slope and to eyewitnesses, the source area of the rockfall
Department of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki,
Thessaloniki, Greece
was located at the elevation of 770 m (Fig. 1).

68 G. Papathanassiou et al.
Fig. 1 The Tithorea rockfall in Parnassos area
Fig. 3 Geological map of the Parnassos area. Ht Holocene stream bed

loose deposits (sand and gravel), al recent alluvial and floodplain
deposits, Qsc colluvial deposits, slope fan debris and conglomerates
(quaternary), J12 thick-bedded, dark limestones (upper Jurassic), Ji-m
dark-coloured bituminous limestones (middle-lower Jurassic), Ts crys-
talline dolomites (upper Triassic)
the Rocscience Inc. and the estimation of the rockfall hazard

as the run-out distance of boulders was done using the
methodology of shadow angles.
Geological Setting
The area under study is part of the Parnassos-Gkiona geotec-

Fig. 2 Barrier constructed in order to reduce the rockfall hazard and in tonic Zone, according to Renz (1940). This is comprised
only a part of the slope mainly of alpine neritic carbonate rocks (i.e. dolomite, lime-
stone and oolite limestone) and a Palaeocene-Eocene flysch,
Similar events were reported, in 1957 and 1999 and whereas the pre-alpine basement does not outcrop and any
induced structural damages at houses. These events were igneous bodies are absent (Fig. 3). At the base of the nearly
located few meters away from the damaged by the 2010 vertical rock, scree material are evident consisted mainly by
event one. In order to reduce the rockfall hazard and to boulders covered by soft clayey eroded geomaterial. River
avoid future structural damages, local authorities constructed deposits are met in lower altitudes, at the end of the Tithorea
a barrier at the foot hill of the mountain (Fig. 2). However, as village.
it was indicated by the 2010 event, further measures should be As far as the tectonic regime is concerned, Tithorea is
designed and constructed. situated in the southern rim of the Kifissos Basin, along the
An in site-investigation was done mapping the detailed Tithorea – Amfiklia Fault Zone (Valkaniotis 2009). Tithorea –
rock fall path and obtaining more than 15 hit points, since the Amfiklia Normal Fault Zone consists of two fault segments,
remnants were fresh and clear. The hit-points involved trees, part of the Kifissos Basin Fault System, showing propable
low vegetation, scree material (soft soil cover or limestone recent (Late Pleistocene – Holocene) activity (Philip 1974;
boulders). Mercier et al. 1979; Ganas and White 1996; Valkaniotis
The goal of this study is to assess basic parameters of the 2009). Parallel fault scarps are found across the slope, from
rockfall trajectory of the December 19, 2010 failure and the fault scarp bounding limestone bedrock and talus south of
evaluate the rockfall hazard in the area of Thithorea village. the Tithorea village, to the area north of the village. Dense
The rockfall analysis was done using the software Rocfall of faulting and fracturing in the bedrock is the main factor
A Rock Fall Analysis Study in Parnassos Area, Central Greece 69
Fig. 4 Damaged house and the boulder of the 19 December 2010
controlling steep topography and rock instability, leading to

numerous rock falls.
Tithorea Rockfall Event on 19 December 2010
At 20:45 on 19 December 2010, a rockfall occured from the

Parnassos mountain. A boulder of approximately 10 m3 in
volume detached from the source area and caused significant Fig. 5 Silent witnesses of the fall track
damages on two houses of the village Tithorea, without any
casualties (Fig. 4). Regarding the triggering mechanism, it is
believed that a combination of meteorogolical and
lithological conditions generated the rockfall. The week
before the event, heavy rainfall was dropped and low
temperatures during the night were recorded. Thus, taking
into account the heavily jointed nature of the rock and the
low drainage due to heavy rainfall and low temperatures,
which froze the water, it is believed that the water pressure
was increased and generated the rockfall.
Few days after the rockfall event, a field survey took
place in order to map and study the fall track of the boulder.
A total of 15 impact-points, reported as craters, and silent
witnesses such as broken trees (Fig. 5) were mapped and
recorded using GPS instrument.
The collected data have been introduced into GIS software,
ArcGIS, and the longitudinal profile of the fall track was
Fig. 6 The longitudinal profile
compiled. As it is shown in Fig. 6, the detachment area of
the rockfall is at the elevation of 770 m and the lowest
recorded crater, at the end of pine forest, is at the elevation rolled on, two zones have been mapped; the first one, located
of 470 m. Based on our observation, the initial volume of the at the upper part of the fall track, is characterized by
boulder was larger since at the first impact-point we have low-vegetation, while the second zone, toward the village, is
mapped traces of a split. Regarding the vegetation the rock an artificial pine forest.
Evaluating Rockfall Hazard
The goal of our study was twofold; the assessment of the

bounce height and the kinetic energy of the boulder that
caused structural damages on two houses in the village of
Tithorea and the estimation of the run-out distances of rock-
fall events. These goals were achieved by applying empirical
methods and computer-based models concerning the land-
slide hazard mapping in regional scale and using software in
order to simulate the fall of a boulder down a slope and to
define the fall tracks.
Simulating the Rockfall Trajectory
The fall track of the rockfall was simulated using the Rocfall Fig. 7 Data collector located between the urban area of Tithorea and
software, which is a robust, easy to use computer program the artificial pine forest
that is available from Rocscience and performs a probabilis-
tic simulation of rockfalls and can be used to design remedial reach the urban area of Tithorea; 11 of 50 rock blocks that
measures and test their effectiveness. were used as sample in our study went beyond the data
As it was shown in several applications of this methodol- collector point. In addition, the total kinetic energy that was
ogy, the runout of a rockfall is influenced by the geological recorded at collector varies from 8,000 to 27,000 kJ and the
characteristics of the slope materials and the roughness of bounce height of the boulders was lower than 0.5 m
slope. The former influence the loss of energy during impacts (Fig. 8a–c). Thus, in case of design and construction of
and the latter the type of rockfalling. Although the fact that in remedial measures in this point, the estimated values provided
our study we simulate the fall track of a large size boulder, we by this study could be used in order to avoid future structural
took into consideration the slope roughness by employing a damages.
value of 5 in the relative field of Rocfall software.
Moreover, one of the most important and difficult issues
for the simulation of a fall track is the reliability of the Rockfall Hazard Assessment
employed material properties. Typical values for the coeffi-
cient of normal (Rn) and targential (Rt) restitution used in The rockfall hazard for the Tithorea area is examined here by
rockfall analyses range from 0.3 to 0.5 and from 0.8 to 0.95, estimating the run-out distance of the boulders Empirical
respectively (Stevens 1998). In this study, the values of Rn rockfall models are generally based on relationships between
and Rt that were used for the areas characterized as talus topographical factors and the length of the run-out zone
cover, talus with vegetation, soil with vegetation, asphalt (Dorren 2003). Usually, the parameters to describe the rock-
was taken as proposed by Rocfall software while the relative fall runout zones can be the angle or the horizontal distance
employed parameters for the limestone (clean hard bedrock) (Petje et al. 2005). In general, two methods are mainly applied
were based on the suggestions by Robotham et al. (1995). for the estimation of the maximum distance that a boulder can
The initial point in the model has been reported during the reach. The first model, Fahrboschung angle, was suggested by
field survey and was defined as a single point in Rocfall Heim (1932) and predicts the run out zone using the angle that
software. is defined by the horizontal plane and the line form the top of a
It should be noted that the output of the simulation, regard- rockfall source scar to the stopping point for any given rock-
ing the horizontal location of the craters is in agreement with fall. The second method is the model known as minimum
the observed fall track, validating our scenario. shadow angle proposed by Evans and Hungr (1993), which
Having validated the basic parameters of the fall track, were based on Lied (1977). According to them, the area
we proceeded to the estimation of the kinetic energy and the beyond the base of a talus slope that is reached by large size
bounce height of the boulders using a collector of data that is boulders is termed the rockfall shadow and the equivalent
located at the boundary between the forested and the urban shadow angle is defined as the angle between the outer margin
area (Fig. 7) of the shadow and the apex of talus scope. The distal part of
As an outcome of the simulation of the fall track, we the shadow often contains only very few boulders, which are
concluded that there is 20 % possibility for a boulder to sparsely distributed on the surface (Evans and Hungr 1993).
A Rock Fall Analysis Study in Parnassos Area, Central Greece 71
Fig. 9 Map showing the delineated shadow angle zones of 30 ,27.5
and 22
outcomes of several studies, concluded that the angle lies

between 22 and 30 .
In our study, the shadow angle method was taken into
account because shows acceptable reliability at a large scale
(Meibl 2001; Copons and Vilaplana 2008) and due to the fact
that is more suitable comparing to Fahrboschung angle model
which predicts an excessively long travel distance (Evans and
Hungr 1993; Wieczorek et al. 1999). Taking into consider-
ation the proposed values of shadow angle, 22 , 27,5 and 30 ,
relevant zones of run-out distances were compiled (Fig. 9).
As it is shown in Fig. 9, part of the village of Tithorea is
situated within the area that is delineated by the shadow angles
of 30 and 27.5 . Moreover, taking into account the most
conservative scenario, the whole area of Tithorea is included
within the shadow angle of 22 zone. Thus, the landslide
hazard both for the houses at Tithorea and the road network
can be characterized as high and protection measures should
be constructed in order to avoid rockfall-induced damages.
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CM
SAKe: A Hydrological Model to Forecasting
Landslide Activations
Oreste G. Terranova, Pasquale Iaquinta, Stefano L. Gariano, Roberto Greco,

and Giulio G.R. Iovine
Abstract
Worldwide, most landslides are generally triggered by rainfalls. In this paper, the hydro-
logical model CMSAKe to forecast the timing of activation of slope movements is described.
Model calibration can be performed through an iterative algorithm (named “Cluster”): in
this way, optimal kernels can be refined from an initial tentative solution. At each iteration,
shape and base time of the tentative kernels are optimized by means of a discretized,
self-adapting approach; the fitness is computed for all the examined solutions, and new
individuals are generated starting from the best kernel obtained at the previous step.
The initial shape of the kernel can be selected among a set of standard basic types:
(1) rectangular; (2) decreasing triangular; (3) any other geometrical shape which may sound
reasonable on the base of the physical knowledge of the phenomenon. Alternatively, the
kernel can be automatically optimized based on antecedent rainfalls with respect to a given
date of landslide activation.
In this paper, a first example of application of the model to a large debris slide
threatening a village in Northern Calabria is discussed, together with the results of a
preliminary sensitivity analysis aimed at investigating the role of the main parameters.
Keywords
Hydrological model Rain threshold Landslide
Introduction the different paths may be quite different, and characterized

by distinct velocities: as a consequence, aliquots of the
In Italy, a recent nationwide investigation has identified same rainfall event may reach a given site at different
more than 1.6 landslides per km2 (Guzzetti et al. 2008). times, variously combining with other groundwater amounts,
In the Country, most of the landslides are usually triggered thus resulting in complex dynamics.
by rainfalls: slope instability conditions are in fact influ- In this study, the hydrological model CMSAKe (i.e. the
enced by the water that, thanks to infiltration, affects ground- release “cluster model” of the Self Adaptive Kernel) to
water dynamics. Generally, groundwater may reach a forecast the triggering of slope movements is synthetically
specific location within the slope by surface flow, direct described. Aiming at model calibration, the dates of activa-
infiltration from the surface, throughflow and seepage from tion of a given phenomenon (or of a set of similar phenom-
the bedrock toward the overlying colluvium. The length of ena in a homogeneous study area), and the series of rainfalls
are needed. Through an iterative cluster modification algo-
rithm, optimal kernels can be refined from initial tentative
O.G. Terranova P. Iaquinta S.L. Gariano R. Greco discretized solutions. Once properly calibrated, the model
G.G.R.Iovine (*) can be used to predict the activation of either shallow or
CNR-IRPI – U.O.S. of Cosenza, Via Cavour 6, Rende,
Cosenza, Italy
deep-seated landslides.

74 O.G. Terranova et al.
An application of the model to a landslide threatening Hydrological models may employ “filter functions”
the village of San Benedetto Ullano (“SBU”, in Northern (kernels) to express the influence of rainfalls on runoff
Calabria-Italia) is also discussed, together with the prelimi- and groundwater dynamics. With reference to this last
nary results of a sensitivity analysis aimed at investigating aspect, the “base time”, tb, defines the length of time during
the role of the main parameters. which rainfalls can effectively affect groundwater dynamics.
Aiming at modelling slope stability, both the shape and
the base time of the kernel must be properly selected by
Background considering, on one side, type and dimension of the investi-
gated phenomena, and, on the other, the geo-structural
Slope instability can occur when the soil shear strength and hydro-geological characteristics of the affected slopes
gets lower than a given threshold, e.g. when rain infiltration (cf. Capparelli et al. 2010). Unfortunately, in many real
leads to an increase in pore water pressure. To model the cases, simple, analytical functions do not allow to properly
relationships between rainfall and landslide occurrence, capture the observed complexity of groundwater dynamics.
two distinct approaches are generally adopted in literature: In this respect, the adoption of discretized kernels may
(1) “physically-based” (firstly developed by Montgomery offer effective solutions to relate landslide activations to
and Dietrich 1994), and (2) hydrological (cf. e.g. Campbell rainfalls.
1975; Caine 1980; Sirangelo and Versace 1996; Terranova
et al. 2007).
The hydrological approach (adopted in the present study) The Model CMSAKe
is based on a statistical-probabilistic analysis of the rainfall
series and of the dates of occurrence of landslide activation. SAKe is a new hydrological model – inspired from Sirangelo
With respect to shallow landslides, the dynamics of deep- and Versace (1996) – for predicting the activation of slope
seated slope movements generally shows more complex movements. The kernel of the model is discretized, as it is
relationships with rains: their activation commonly requires made of a set of elements, hi, defined per each time interval
greater rainfall amounts, spanned over longer periods (from (i). A linear, steady scheme is adopted: z(t) can be described
ca. 30 days to some rainy seasons). by means of an integral of convolution between the kernel,
Different hydrological mechanisms may play a significant h(t), and the rainfall, p(t). The mobility function of the
role in landslide activation. In some cases, a combination of model is defined as:
diverse mechanisms must be assumed. Therefore, efforts
aimed at generalizing the triggering thresholds – e.g. the ðt ðt
combination of intensity and duration of rains able to activate zðtÞ ¼ hðt tÞpðtÞdt ¼ hðtÞpðt tÞdt (3)
0 0
a given (type of) slope movement in a specific area – appear
to be a quite complex issue (Marques et al. 2008). ð þ1
Generally, a slope can be seen as a dynamic system for hðtÞ ¼ hðtÞdt ¼ 1; hðtÞ 0; 8t (4)
0
which the following reference values can be defined: (1) a
minimum threshold (zmin), below which the slope is always
stable, and (2) a maximum threshold (zmax), above which In practical applications, the lower boundary of (4) is
the slope is always unstable (Crozier 1997). Intermediate set to zero (i.e. the initial time), while the upper boundary
conditions occur for values between zmax and zmin, which is equal to the base time.
may be expressed by a probability function: In classic hydrological problems, z(t) represents the dis-
charge at the time t, and the kernel can be determined
G zðtÞ 2 0; 1 (1) through calibration, by relating discharge measurements
to rains. Unfortunately, in slope-stability modelling only
In other terms: few dates of activation are commonly available, and the
values of z(t) are unknown. Such a problem can be mathe-
PðEt Þ ¼ 0 for zðtÞ < zmin matically handled only by assuming that the timing of
PðEt Þ ¼ 1 for zðtÞ > zmax (2) the maxima of z(t) corresponds to the dates of landslide
PðEt Þ ¼ G½zðtÞ for zmin zðtÞ zmax activation; as a consequence, the shape of the kernel may
turn out highly indeterminate.
in which: P is the probability of occurrence; Et is the In CMSAKe, an approach based on the adoption of
succession of the events in time (t); z(t) is the “mobility discretized kernels, automatically calibrated through iterative
function”, i.e. the value assumed by the variable that computational techniques, was adopted. At the beginning of
expresses the condition of instability. any calibration experiment, the rainfall series and a coherent
CM
SAKe: A Hydrological Model to Forecasting Landslide Activations 75
Table 1 Model parameters The initial shape of the kernel can be selected among
Parameter Description Value a set of standard basic types: (1) rectangular, if the oldest
tb-max Maximum base time 60 days precipitations are assumed to have the same weight as the
ws0 Initial width of the cluster 6 days most recent; (2) decreasing triangular, if the oldest
dhmax Maximum variation of hi 40.0 % precipitations have a progressively smaller weight compared
dhmin Minimum variation of hi 0.5 % to the most recent; (3) increasing triangular, if the oldest
precipitations have a progressively greater weight than
set of dates of landslide occurrence must be given as input the most recent; (4) any other geometrical shape which
to the model. Dates may either refer to a number of historical may sound reasonable on the base of the physical knowledge
re-activations of a given slope movement, or to geo- of the phenomenon (like the functions: Power, Beta,
hydrological events characterized by widespread activations Gamma, Nash, etc.).
of numerous landslides of the same type/dimension within Alternatively, the initial shape of the kernel can be
a geologically homogeneous area. The initial shape and max- selected according to the following “rain-driven” procedure.
imum base time, tb-max, of the kernel must also be specified, If only one date of landslide activation is available (e.g. in
as well as other operational parameters (cf. Table 1). case of a “first-time” landslide), a high fitness can be
The fitness function is defined as follows: obtained by simply initializing the kernel h0 by considering
(a) The N available dates of landslide activation are sorted, the series of antecedent rains of length tb-max, taken back-
in chronological order, in the vector S ¼ {S1, S2, . . ., ward from the activation date, and by normalizing the
Si, . . ., SN}; values of hi with respect to their cumulative value. On
(b) The vector of the relative maxima of the mobility the other hand, if N dates of activation are available
function Z ¼ {z1, z2, . . ., zk, . . ., zM}, where M is (e.g. re-activations of a given phenomenon), a set of differ-
the number and k is the rank of the relative maxima, ent kernels, h0j (with j ¼ 1, . . ., N) are obtained per each
is sorted in decreasing order; date: the initial kernel is therefore computed as the average
(c) The vector of the partial fitness values is defined of the N kernels. As a rule, the generic ordinate of any initial
as w ¼ {’1, ’2, . . ., ’i, . . . ’N}. kernel at the time i is given by:
The following cases can occur:
PN
1. ’i ¼ 1 if the date of the i-th activation, Si, matches, h0j i
j¼1
within a pre-fixed tolerance (D, in days), the date of a hi¼
0
(6)
N
k-th relative maximum of the mobility function, zk,
with k N; Note that, when adopting the above mentioned rain-driven
2. ’i ¼ (kN + 1)1 – i.e. it is inversely proportional to procedure, the fitness, F, related to the initial kernel may
the rank of zk in Z – if the date of the i-th activation, not be attain the maximum value; though, high values
Si, matches, within a pre-fixed tolerance (D, in days), (i.e. relative maxima) of the mobility function can be obtained
the date of a k-th relative maximum of the mobility in correspondence with the dates of landslide activation.
function, zk, with k > N; During model calibration, shape and base time of the
3. ’i ¼ 0 if the date of the i-th activation, Si, does not kernel are iteratively refined by means of a discretized, self-
match any date of the relative maxima in Z. adapting approach. For each iteration, the fitness is computed
Consequently, the fitness of a generic kernel is: for all the examined solutions, and new individuals are
generated starting from the best kernel obtained at the previ-
1 XN ous step. More in detail, once the input data are given, the
F¼ ’
i¼1 i
(5)
N initial kernel selected, and the model parameters initialized,
the fitness of the first individual can be computed. Aiming at
Furthermore, let’s define zk-min as the smallest of the
finding better solutions, the kernel is therefore subdivided
peaks of the mobility function in correspondence of one
into Nc consecutive, not overlapping, clusters; these latter
of the dates of activation. The “critical threshold” (zcr) is
are made of a number of elements, so that
defined as the value of the mobility function at the highest
peak just below zk-min. X NC
In CMSAKe, the optimizing tool designed to maximize tb ¼ s¼1
ws (7)
the value of the fitness is named “Cluster”. During a
given calibration experiment, the value of tb is allowed to where Nc is the number of clusters, and ws is the width
change in the range [1, tb-max], i.e. from few minutes to (i.e. the temporal extent) of the s-th cluster. At the beginning
some weeks for shallow landslides, up to several months of the procedure, the initial width of the cluster is given
for deep-seated gravitational phenomena. by ws0 (cf. Table 1).
At each step, the iterative calibration procedure modifies

the elements of a given cluster (e.g. increases their values by
an amount dh, expressed in percentage of the maximum
value of hi of the whole kernel), and simultaneously modifies
(e.g. decreases) the elements of the remaining clusters,
by assuring that their overall sum remains unitary (note
that, at the first iteration, the initial value of dh is given
by dhmax – cf. Table 1). The fitness of the obtained solution
is therefore computed. The same procedure is successively
applied to another cluster, until all the available clusters
are considered.
At this point, only the best solution is maintained, and
another level of iteration can start, by halving the width, ws
(and therefore increasing the number, Nc) of the clusters,
until the condition ws ¼ 1 is reached. Again, by maintaining
Fig. 1 Top-right: location of the study area. Key: SBU San Benedetto
only the best solution, another level of iteration can start, Ullano, CS Cosenza, RC Reggio Calabria, c coastal chain; g Crati
by halving the value of dh (until the condition dhmin is Graben, in red the main tectonic structures belonging to the
reached). At the end of each level of iteration, when two Calabrian-Sicilian Rift Zone. Main figure: geological map. Key: af
or more kernels show equivalent values of fitness, F, the alluvial sediments (Holocene), df landslide debris (Holocene), qcl
loose conglomerate (Pleistocene), Pa1-2 grey-blue silty clay (Middle-
one characterized by the greatest Dzcr ¼ (zk-min zcr)/zk-min Late Pliocene), sbm gneiss and biotitic schist (Palaeozoic), sf grey
is selected. phyllitic schist (Palaeozoic). The black hatched area delimits the
The above described calibration procedure may fail at the sector threatened by the landslide. The roads (in green) to the cemetery
first iteration, if all the examined solutions have null fitness. (C), the church of S. Rocco (SR), and the provincial road to Marri
(SP.31, in yellow) are also shown
In such a case, a new phase of calibration can be attempted
by selecting a different initial shape of the kernel.
The procedure may result quite time-consuming (and even Calabrian-Sicilian Rift Zone (Monaco and Tortorici 2000),
fail) if the considered set of dates of occurrence of slope which extends for ca. 30 km. Along this fault, the metamor-
movements do actually refer to different types of phenomena: phic rocks of the Chain, to the West, give place to the
in this case, a kernel only partly consistent with the physical Pliocene-Quaternary sediments of the Graben, to the East
processes under investigation is in fact obtained. (CASMEZ 1967).
Finally, once the best solution is determined at the In Calabria, average yearly rainfalls vary between 1,000
end of a given iteration, the procedure can be re-launched and 2,000 mm/year in mountainous and internal areas, with
(cf. option “continue”), aiming at searching for further a mean regional value of about 1,150 mm/year. In Table 2,
solutions characterized by greater fitness and/or Dzcr. In the average rains recorded at Montalto Uffugo (the closest
this latter case, the solution shows a shorter response to rain gauge to the study case) are shown.
rainfall, and therefore allows for activating early-warning After a period of exceptional rainfalls, on 28 January
procedures with a greater advance (which may turn out 2009 the landslide started mobilizing, threatening the south-
useful for Civil Protection purposes). ern border of SBU and its cemetery. During the 2 and
3-months antecedent to this mobilization, cumulated rains
approached the first two critical cases ever recorded since
An Example of Application 1921. Thanks to a basic monitoring system (made of datum
points plus extensometers) – implemented in the early stages
The landslide here considered (Fig. 1 – cf. Iovine et al. 2009) of activation to support the Authority of Civil Protection
developed at SBU, along the left flank of the Crati Graben. for risk mitigation purposes – a peak of ca. 10 cm/ day
The village lies at the base of the Coastal Chain, in a sector of superficial velocity was recorded on 30 January 2009.
marked by a N-S trending normal fault, belonging to the On 31 January, superficial velocities of ca. 7 cm/day were
Table 2 Rainfalls (mm) recorded at the Montalto Uffugo gauge (468 m a.s.l.) during the 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 hydrologic years.
Mean values of the 1921–2006 period are also shown (in bold, values greater than averages)
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Year
2008/2009 174.8 89.0 216.6 524.4 647.8 335.6 417.0 142.5 26.4 77.8 0.4 0.0 2,652.3
2009/2010 141.0 247.6 129.6 350.2 575.2 592.2 130.4 90.6 126.0 139.8 5.4 1.4 2,529.4
Average 70.4 125.1 187.9 220.8 198.1 160.3 132.8 98.9 64.6 27.8 18.3 28.6 1,333.6
CM
measured at several sites. Significant velocities were still standalone system SQL and application process); each
observed in the following days, in coincidence with experiment lasted less than 30 min.
notable rains. In the late Spring 2009, velocities gradually The fitness reached the maximum in all the calibration
decreased down to few mm/month. Geomorphologic experiments after only few iterations. In particular, the max-
evidences and kinematic observations suggested a confined imum of F was reached at the first step of computation when
type of distribution of activity. The local road to the ceme- initializing the shape of the kernel by the RD approach; five
tery and the provincial road (SP.31) to Marri were the most steps were needed when adopting the DT; seven steps for the
damaged by the landslide activation, while only minor dam- RE; and eight steps for the IT (Fig. 2). In the same
age was recorded along the southern margin of the village experiments, after reaching the maximum of F, further
and in the cemetery. iterations allowed to refine the results by increasing the
During Autumn-Winter 2009/10, exceptional rains were value of Dzcr. The final values of Dzcr attained the values
recorded again. Between 31 January and 1 February 2010, of 36.2 %, 30.5 %, 26.1 % and 16.6 % for the RD, IT, RE,
a new phase of mobilization began. On 10–11 February, and DT, respectively.
295 mm of rain caused a new paroxysmal phase. Starting Furthermore, it can be noticed that, if the four final
from the end of March 2010, the landslide activity gradually kernels are concerned, the elements hi exceed the average
reduced to few mm/month in the late Spring. As a whole, value (i.e. 1/tb-max ¼ 0:016 – cf. height of the RE) in corre-
the 2009/2010 mobilization caused by far greater damage spondence with three main temporal windows, and approxi-
with respect to the 2008/2009 one: the local roads and mately between: 1–6, 22–24, and 47–48 days. This result is
the SP.31 were completely destroyed, great part of the independent from the initial shape of the kernel, and suggests
slope affected by the landslide was devastated, and notable a quite complex scheme of groundwater dynamics for the
damage was recorded in the cemetery and along the margin SBU case study, which seems to be affected by distinct
of the village. water contributions: a “short-term” response combines with
Aiming at refining the cited monitoring system, informa- a “middle-term” response, and with an older contribution.
tion gathered through five boreholes, drilled in Spring 2009
(equipped with one open-pipe piezometer and four Conclusions
inclinometers) were employed to perform a parametric sta- The calibration experiments of CMSAKe were performed
bility analysis (Iovine et al. 2010); moreover, a preliminary by adopting tb-max ¼ 60 days and 4 types of initial shape
hydrological analysis was carried out by adopting the FLaiR of the kernel (RD, RE, DT, IT). The fitness reached the
approach (Capparelli et al. 2010). maximum in all the calibration experiments after few
The model CMSAKe was therefore applied to the case iterations (the fastest was the RD, the slowest the IT).
study of SBU, by taking into account a period of over The final values obtained for Dzcr ranged from a maxi-
30 years (from 1 January 1970 to 30 September 2010). mum (RD) to a minimum (DT). Further improvements
In the considered period (as well as in previous years), no could still be obtained by further re-launching the model.
other reports of landslide damage could be found in the Due to the limited number of known dates of activation,
consulted archives for the study area. Therefore, for the validation could not be performed for this specific case
considered landslide, the only available dates of activation study.
were: 31 January 2009, and 1 February 2010. Obtained results could usefully be applied for early
warning purposes. In general, in such type of application,
in case two or more kernels show equivalent values of
fitness, the one characterized by the smallest tb, the
Results greatest Dzcr and/or the lowest momentum of the first
order with respect to the time origin should be employed
Based on both geomorphologic evidence and on hydrologi- (as it refers to a faster response of the slope to rainfalls).
cal knowledge on the 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 wet seasons The model is self-adaptive, but computation times can
(in which the considered landslide activations occurred), be reduced by properly initializing tb-max and the shape of
a parametric analysis was performed (Fig. 2) by assuming the kernel, based on landslide characteristics. The kernels
tb-max ¼ 60 days, and initializing the remaining model obtained by calibration constitute a family of optimal
parameters as in Table 1. solutions, characterized by the highest values of fitness.
As for the initial shape of the kernel, the following types In case the quality of input data is improved, and/or the
were considered: (1) “rain-driven” (RD), (2) rectangular number of activations increases (e.g. in case of either new
(RE), (3) decreasing triangular (DT), and (4) increasing activations or discovery of further historical dates), the
triangular (IT). The calibration experiments were performed family of solutions tends to be less numerous, and its
on a standard PC platform (CPU 3 GHz, RAM 4 GB, significance increases.
Fig. 2 Example of output of CMSAKe. On top, the series of daily represents the average) for each of the four different shapes considered
rainfalls (from 1 January 1970 to 30 September 2010) is shown. Two (RD, RE, DT, IT), and related mobility functions plus final values of
red stars mark the timing of landslide activations (S1 and S2). Below, Dzcr are also shown. Per each calibration experiment, evolution graphs
the kernels (initial in orange and final in green; the dashed black line of F and Dzcr are shown in red and grey, respectively
CM
CM
SAKe allows to identifying distinct behaviours of CASMEZ (1967) Carta Geologica della Calabria, F.229-III-NE
groundwater dynamics, related to complex interactions “Lattarico” (in scale 1/25000). Poligrafica & CarteValori, Ercolano
Crozier MJ (1997) The climate-landslide couple: a southern hemi-
among the different infiltrated aliquots of rain affecting sphere perspective. In: Matthews JA, Brunsden D, Frenzel B, Gläser
slope stability. In the case of SBU, three main groundwa- B, Weiß MM (eds) Rapid mass movement as a source of climatic
ter contributions could be identified from the analysis of evidence for the Holocene, vol 19. Gustav Fischer, Stuttgart,
the final kernels, which may never be captured by pp 333–354
Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, Stark CP (2008) The rainfall
adopting a single analytical function (e.g. when simple intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flow:
mathematical functions are adopted). an update. Landslides 5:3–17
Nevertheless, as the indeterminateness above cited Iovine GGR, Iaquinta P, Terranova OG (2009) Emergency manage-
remains, it is rather preferable to consider – instead of a ment of landslide risk during Autumn-Winter 2008/2009 in
Calabria (Italy). The example of San Benedetto Ullano.
single solution – a set of optimal kernels that, based of In: Anderssen RS, Braddock RD, Newham LTH (eds) Proceedings
available information, allows to satisfactorily simulating of the 18th World IMACS congress and MODSIM09 international
the response of the considered slope to rainfalls. congress on modelling and simulation, Cairns, pp 2686–2693. ISBN
An automated technique of calibration (based on 978-0-9758400-7-8
Iovine GGR, Lollino P, Gariano SL, Terranova OG (2010) Coupling
Genetic Algorithms) and a detailed sensitivity analysis limit equilibrium analyses and real-time monitoring to refine a
are presently being performed against a set of case studies landslide surveillance system in Calabria (Southern Italy). Nat
(of different types), characterized by a greater number of Hazards Earth Syst Sci (NHESS) 10:2341–2354
activation dates (thus also allowing for model validation). Marques R, Zêzere J, Trigo R, Gaspar J, Trigo I (2008) Rainfall
patterns and critical values associated with landslides in Povoação
County (São Miguel Island, Azores): relationships with the North
Atlantic Oscillation. Hydrol Process 22:478–494
References Monaco C, Tortorici L (2000) Active faulting in the Calabrian arc and
eastern Sicily. J Geodyn 29:407–424
Caine N (1980) The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow Montgomery DR, Dietrich WE (1994) A physically-based model for
landslides and debris flows. Geogr Ann 62A(1–2):23–27 the topographic control on shallow landsliding. Water Resour Res
Campbell RH (1975) Debris flow originating from soil slip during 30:1153–1171
rainstorm in southern California. Q J Eng Geol 7:377–384 Sirangelo B, Versace P (1996) A real time forecasting for landslides
Capparelli G, Iaquinta P, Iovine GGR, Terranova OG, Versace P triggered by rainfall. Meccanica 31:1–13
(2010) Modelling the rainfall-induced mobilization of a large Terranova O, Antronico L, Gullà G (2007) Landslide triggering
slope movement in northern Calabria. Nat Hazards. doi:10.1007/ scenarios in homogeneous geological contexts: the area surrounding
s11069-010-9651-1 Acri (Calabria, Italy). Geomorphology 87:250–267
Shallow-Landslide Susceptibility in the Costa Viola
Mountain Ridge (Italia)
Giulio G.R. Iovine, Roberto Greco, Stefano L. Gariano, Pasquale Iaquinta,

Annamaria Pellegrino, and Oreste G. Terranova
Abstract
The “Costa Viola” mountain ridge (Calabria) is exposed to severe geo-hydrological risk
conditions, especially in the sector between Bagnara Calabra and Scilla. This sector has
repeatedly been affected by slope instability events in the past, mainly related to debris
slides, rock falls and debris flows.
An attempt of shallow-landslide susceptibility mapping has been performed for the
mentioned coastal sector through a logistic regression (LR) approach. LR is a multivariate
type of analysis that allows estimating the presence/absence of a phenomenon in terms of
probability (ranging between 0 and 1), on the basis of linear statistical relationships with a
set of independent territorial variables.
The adopted LR procedure consists of four steps: (1) variable parameterization,
(2) sampling, (3) fitting, and (4) application. Obtained results can be considered acceptable,
as 85.6 % of cells are correctly classified.
Keywords
Shallow-landslide Susceptibility Logistic regression
Introduction aim can be achieved by means of several, different

approaches (Aleotti and Chowdhury 1999; Guzzetti et al.
In Calabria, a region characterized by rough morphology 1999), including multivariate statistical analyses (Carrara
and landslide-prone outcrops, mass movements are a signif- et al. 1977, 1982, 1991; Reger 1979; Carrara 1983; Carrara
icant natural hazard (Carrara et al. 1982; Sorriso-Valvo and Guzzetti 1995; Chung et al. 1995; Guzzetti et al. 1999;
1993; Pellegrino and Borrelli 2007). Due to their high Baeza and Corominas 2001; Gullà et al. 2008).
kinetic energy and long paths, shallow landslides (like debris Logistic Regression is a type of multivariate analysis
slides and debris flows) are commonly the most destructive widely utilized (cf. e.g. among the most recent studies:
and dangerous type of slope movements for people and Greco et al. 2007; Nefeslioglu et al. 2008; Mathew et al.
infrastructures. 2009; Sorriso-Valvo et al. 2009; Rossi et al. 2010; Van Den
Evaluation of landslide susceptibility (i.e. the spatial Eeckhaut et al. 2010), that allows estimating the presence/
probability of occurrence of mass movements) is the first absence of a phenomenon, represented by the dependent
step when dealing with regional hazard management. This variable y, in terms of probability P(y), whose value ranges
between 0 (no occurrence) and 1 (occurrence) on the basis of
linear statistical relationships with a set of independent
G.G.R. Iovine (*) R. Greco S.L. Gariano P. Iaquinta O.G. variables. Note that, in case of independent variables
Terranova
CNR-IRPI – U.O.S. of Cosenza, Via Cavour 6, Rende, Cosenza, Italy
which are correlated with each other (e.g. those derived
e-mail: [email protected] from a given DEM), the evaluation ability of LR remains
A. Pellegrino
unaffected.
ABR Calabria, Via Crispi 33, Catanzaro, Italy

82 G.G.R. Iovine et al.
Fig. 1 Location, altimetry and main infrastructures of the study area Fig. 2 Geological sketch of the study area (After modified Tortorici
1982). Key: (A) gravel, sand, silt and clay (upper Pleistocene-
Holocene), (B) terraced sand, pebble (middle Pliocene-middle Pleisto-
In the present study, the shallow-landslide susceptibility cene), (C) conglomerate, arenite, clay, and marl, with subordinate
of a sector of the “Costa Viola” mountain ridge (Calabria), evaporite (upper Miocene-middle Pliocene), (D) acid intrusive rocks
frequently struck by geo-hydrological events, was analyzed (Paleozoic), (E) middle-high grade metamorphic rocks (Paleozoic)
by means of LR. The main results of the analysis are
summarized below. strip of land between the coastline and the base of the ridge is
densely urbanized.
This sector has repeatedly been affected by slope insta-
bility events in the past, mainly related to debris slides, rock
Study Area falls and debris flows. In the last decade, the frequency of
the damaging events increased (the last one occurred in
The study area, extended approximately 82.2 km2, is located
Winter 2010/2011): in 2001 and in 2005, a couple of events
in a sector of the “Costa Viola” mountain ridge, between
severely hit the main transportation infrastructures, also
Bagnara Calabra and Scilla (Fig. 1). It is characterized by
causing the derailment of a train, and the urbanized areas
Palaeozoic metamorphic and crystalline bedrocks, strongly
(Bonavina et al. 2005).
tectonized, and deeply weathered, covered by Upper Mio-
cene to Holocene sedimentary deposits (Fig. 2). At the base
of the mountain ridge, a NE-SW trending fault, belonging to
the Calabrian-Sicilian Rift Zone (Tortorici et al. 1995), Method
marks the transition between the basement and the overlying
sedimentary terrains of the coastal plan. The methodology used to evaluate the susceptibility to shal-
From a morphological point of view, the area is low landslide in the considered sector of the Costa Viola
characterized by steep and uneven slopes, cut by deep mountain ridge is based on Logistic Regression. In LR, the
canyons; a set of marine terraces can be recognized presence/absence of a landslide can be expressed in terms of
between 100 and 600 m a.s.l. Along the coast, short high- a dichotomic dependent variable, whose probability of being
gradient torrents (the longest thereof are T. Favazzina and true is determined on the basis of linear statistical
T. Sfalassà – cf. Fig. 1) drain the western slope of the ridge. relationships with a set of independent territorial variables.
In this area, cold winter air fronts commonly approach from The probability of occurrence of the dependent variable,
NW, originating intense storms. P(y), can be calculated as follows:
The study area is crossed by the railway, the highway A3
(“Salerno-Reggio di Calabria”), and the southern Tyrrhenian 1
PðyÞ ¼ (1)
1 þ ea0 S1 ai xi
n
state road (SS.18) (cf. Fig. 1). The narrow and discontinuous
Shallow-Landslide Susceptibility in the Costa Viola Mountain Ridge (Italia) 83
in which ai and Xi are the regression coefficients (i.e., the part of study area (i.e. where only independent variables are
weights related to the variables), and the independent known). A grid of values, ranging between 0 and 1, is
variables, respectively. obtained as output.
The adopted LR procedure, first proposed by Greco et al.
(2007) for evaluating landslide susceptibility in the
Aspromonte Massif (southern Calabria), consists of four The Dependent Variable
steps: (1) variable parameterisation, (2) sampling, (3) model
fitting and (4) model application, as summarized below. Presence or absence of shallow landslides in the study area
was chosen as the dependent variable for susceptibility clas-
sification. The territorial distribution of the phenomena was
LR Procedure obtained from a multi-temporal landslide inventory map
(1:10,000 scale) obtained by interpreting two sets of aerial
LR analysis can be developed by using both parametric and photographs, taken in 1994–1995 and in 1990–1991, respec-
non-parametric variables. Previous studies demonstrated tively (Fig. 3). In Fig. 3a, the 181 landslides employed as
that if non-parametric variables are ranked or transformed training set during the phase of calibration are shown; in
into parametric variables (e.g. ordering their classes on the Fig. 3b, the 81 landslides employed as validation set are
basis of landslide incidence in each class) results may be shown.
improved (Sorriso-Valvo et al. 2009). In this study, the
parameterisation was performed by considering landslide
incidence in given portions of the study area, named the Independent Variables
“sampling zones”.
In sampling, the values of the independent variables are Independent variable maps were obtained from available
obtained from selected zones. This phase can be performed published maps (e.g. lithology from Burton 1971; land use
in different ways: data from the whole study area can be from European Environment Agency 2007; pedological
used to generate the fitting data set (Ohlmacher and Davis units from ARSSA 2003) or by processing other variables
2003; Ayalew and Yamagishi 2005); alternatively, data (derived from the DEM).
from a limited portion of the study area, with either equal The data set of independent variables includes the nine
proportions of 1 and 0 pixel (Dai and Lee 2002) or unequal causal factors (LU, LUS, ST, ELEV, SLO, ASP, ACUR,
proportions (Atkinson and Massari 1998), can be used. In DCUR, TWI) described below.
this study, sampling zones were obtained in the GIS envi- – Lithology: obtained by grouping, on the basis of similar-
ronment by generating a buffer around each landslide. Each ity in compositional and mechanical properties, the
cell of the data base is characterized by an id-index, cell formations of the Geological Map of Calabria (1:25,000
coordinates, and parameterized values of dependent and scale) (Burton 1971). In Fig. 4a, the territorial frequency
independent variables. of the eight lithological units (LU) outcropping in study
During model fitting, LR is iteratively performed by area is shown.
testing all the possible values for the weights of the indepen- – Land use: obtained from the digital map of the Corine-
dent variables, until the root mean square residuals are Land Cover project (European Environment Agency
minimized. The adopted software (Arc-Info, version 9.3) 2007). From the layer of highest detail, the 15 land use
provides regression weights (ai), RMSE (Root Mean Square categories (LUS) used for the analysis were extracted. In
Error) and Chi-square. Results can be considered good when Fig. 4b, LUS frequency is shown.
RMSE is minimized and Chi-square maximized. The fore- – Soil type (ST): obtained from a vector map at 1:25,000
cast capability can be evaluated, at this step, by means of the nominal scale, supplied by the Regional Agency for Agri-
ROC analysis (Receiver Operating Characteristics Analysis, culture Development and Services (ARSSA). In this map,
Hosmer and Lemeshow 1989). soil types are classified into 155 pedological units,
In model application, the logistic function obtained in the (ARSSA 2003). In Fig. 4c, the frequency of the 13 pedo-
previous step of the procedure is applied to the remaining logical units outcropping in the area of interest is shown.
– Curvatures: derived from DEM by mathematical inter-

section of the ground surface with (1) a vertical plane
set along the direction of maximum slope (ACUR), and
(2) with a horizontal plane set orthogonally to the direc-
tion of maximum slope (DCUR) (Fig. 4g);
– Topographic wetness index (TWI) (Moore et al. 1991):
derived from the DEM, it expresses the potential surface
runoff inflow to any given cell; its value is obtained from:
TWI ¼ lnðAs = tan b Þ (2)
in which As is the specific flow-accumulation area (i.e. for

each cell, the total area of up-hill cells delivering overland
flow), and b is the slope angle (in degrees). In Fig. 4h, the
frequency of TWI in the study area is shown.
Results
As mentioned above, the susceptibility to shallow landslide

was evaluated by considering the following nine variables:
lithology (LU), land use (LUS), pedological units (ST);
elevation (ELEV), slope gradient (SLO), aspect (ASP),
cross slope curvature (ACUR), down slope curvature
(DCUR) and topographic wetness index (TWI). In Table 1,
regression weights of each independent variable, and RMSE
and Chi-square values obtained in the phase of model fitting
are shown.
In addition, ROC analysis was performed to check the
performance of the LR models obtained by fitting. The
obtained ROC-curve is shown in Fig. 5. Through the logistic
function (1), the probability of existence P(y) was evaluated
for the whole study area (Fig. 6a).
Finally, the probability map was reclassified into five
susceptibility classes (Fig. 6b): Null (P(y) 5 %); Low
(5 % < P(y) 25 %); Medium (25 % < P(y) 55 %);
High (50 % < P(y) 75 %); Very high (P(y) > 75 %).
Conclusion
Shallow-landslide susceptibility of a sector of the “Costa
Fig. 3 Landslide inventory maps of the study area: (a) training set; Viola” was evaluated by means of Logistic Regression by
(b) validation set employing nine territorial variables, considered as main
causal factors. In the adopted sampling procedure,
– Elevation (ELEV): obtained from a 20-m square-grid weights of LR models were computed by considering
DEM, it was classified into elevation classes 100 m only a portion of the study area (the sampling zone).
wide (Fig. 4d); The regression values of P(y) range from 0 % to 78 %
– Slope angle (SLO): derived by DEM, it was classified (Fig. 6a), allowing for the susceptibility classification
into seven classes (10 wide) (Fig. 4e); shown in Fig. 6b. In terms of susceptibility, the sectors
– Aspect (ASP): derived from DEM, it was classified into most threatened by shallow-landslides are located by the
eight classes (Fig. 4f); Tyrrhenian coast, as a consequence of the local structural
Fig. 4 Distribution of independent territorial variables for the study forest, 31322 mixed forest, 3212 discontinuous grassland, 3231 high
area: Keys: (a) Lithological units: CL clay, LIM limestone, CON “Macchia”, 324 transitional woodland-shub, 333 sparsely vegetated
conglomerate, CD colluviums and debris, IR igneous rock, SA sand, areas; (c) Soil type: ALU Artenic-Leptic Ubrisol, CCL Cutanic Chro-
GRA gravel, MR metamorphic rock; (b) Land use categories: 112 mic Luvisols, CPL Chromi Profondic Luvisols, DCL Dystri-Cutanic
discontinuous urban fabric, 2111 intensive cultivations, 222 fruit trees Luvisol, HAU Humi-Arenic Umbrisols, HCC Haspli-Calcaric
and berries plantations, 223 olive groves, 241 annual crops associated Cambisols, HDC Hapli-Dystic Cambisols, HDL Hapli-Dystric
with permanent crops, 242 complex cultivation patterns, 243 land Leptosols, HHU Hapli-Humic Umbrisols, HP Haplic Phaeozems,
principally occupied by agriculture, with significant areas of natural PSA Pachi-Silic Andosols, SAF Skeletic-Arenic Fluvisols, UL
vegetation, 3114 chestnut forest, 3115 beech forest, 3121 coniferous Umbrihumic Leptosols
setting (cf. Fig. 2), and along the steep flanks of the major among those obtained in previous applications of the
streams (T. Sfalassà and T. Favazzina). Notable values of method in Calabria. In addition, the overlay between
susceptibility are also to be found in the middle portion of the landslide validation set (Fig. 3b) and the susceptibil-
the study area, again in correspondence of a major fault ity map (Fig. 6b) shows that 44 % of cases fall in the
belonging to the Calabrian-Sicilian Rift Zone. Medium Susceptibility class, and 56 % in the High
Obtained weights (Table 1) suggest that down-slope Susceptibility class, thus confirming the goodness of
curvature, topographic wetness index, aspect and lithology classification for the “Costa Viola” study area, where
play a primary role in favouring slope instability. Differ- the LR sampling procedure satisfactorily described the
ently from previous applications of the method (Greco probability of presence of mass movements.
et al. 2007; Sorriso-Valvo et al. 2009), pedological unit In the study area, the zones most exposed to risk from
doesn’t seem to play any significant role. This may be due shallow-landslides are quite urbanized and/or are crossed
to an even distribution of the training set among the differ- by relevant transportation infrastructures. The potential
ent types of soil considered. Further investigation is needed sources were identified in the present study, in terms of
to better understand this specific result. susceptibility, through LR. The next step, presently in
ROC analysis indicates a percentage of 85.6 % of progress, is the evaluation of the expected intensity
correctly classified cells; this is by far the best result (related to the triggering rainfalls) and potential path of
Table 1 Regression weights, and values of RMSE and Chi-square, as

obtained through regression
Coefficient Variable Value
a0 Intercept 11.552
a1 LU 0.028
a2 LUS 0.013
a3 ST 0.000
a4 ELEV 0.018
a5 SLO 0.025
a6 ASP 0.032
a7 ACUR 0.027
a8 DCUR 0.043
a9 TWI 0.037
RMSE 0.485
Chi-square 475.990
Fig. 5 Obtained ROC curve
the debris flows which may originate by fluidization of

the shallow landslides, and propagate towards the coast-
line (Iovine 2008; Iovine and Mangraviti 2009) – as Fig. 6 Probability map (a) and susceptibility map (b)
frequently occurred in the past.
Baeza C, Corominas J (2001) Assessment of shallow landslide suscep-

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Extraction of Rock Mass Structural Data from High
Resolution Laser Scanning Products
Giovanni Gigli and Nicola Casagli
Abstract
With the aim of extracting 3D structural information of rock masses from high resolution
remote sensing data, a Matlab tool, called DiAna (Discontinuity Analysis) has been
compiled.
In particular, the proposed approach is able to semi-automatically retrieve some relevant
rock mass parameters, namely orientation, number of sets, spacing/frequency, persistence,
block size and scale dependent roughness, by analyzing high resolution point clouds
acquired from terrestrial or aerial laser scanners.
The proposed method has been applied to different case studies, and the obtained
properties have been compared with the results from traditional geomechanical surveys.
These applications demonstrated DiAna’s ability to investigate rock masses
characterized by irregular block shapes, and suggest applications in the field of engineering
geology and emergency management, when it is often advisable to minimize survey time in
dangerous environments and, in the same time, it is necessary to gather all the required
information as fast as possible.
Keywords
Laser scanner Point cloud Geomechanical survey Discontinuity DiAna
Introduction of the rock mass, and usually they do not provide data for
a complete reconstruction of the full variability of a rock mass.
Traditional geomechanical surveys are performed in situ, The advantage of employing remote and high resolution
either in one dimension (scanline method) or two surveying techniques for geomechanical purposes is based
dimensions (window method), and require direct access to on the capability of performing both large scale (Oppikofer
the rock face for the collection of the relevant parameters. et al. 2008) and small scale (Lombardi et al. 2006) analyses
ISRM (1978) selected the following ten parameters for and to rapidly obtain information on inaccessible rock
the quantitative description of discontinuities in rock exposures.
masses: orientation, spacing, persistence, roughness, wall The main product of a long range laser scanning survey is
strength, aperture, filling, seepage, number of sets, block a high resolution point cloud, obtained by measuring with
size. high accuracy (millimetric or centimetric) the distance of a
For practical and safety reasons, traditional geo- mesh of points on the object, following a regular pattern with
mechanical surveys are often carried out on limited sectors polar coordinates.
During the last years many authors have been working on
the extraction of 3D rock mass properties from remotely
G. Gigli (*) N. Casagli acquired high resolution data, mainly digital photogrammetry
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Florence, Via La Pira 4,
Florence, Italy
and LIDAR (Slob et al. 2005; Jaboyedoff et al. 2007; Ferrero
e-mail: [email protected] et al. 2009; Lato et al. 2009; Sturzenegger and Stead 2009).

90 G. Gigli and N. Casagli
falls were abound near the Triponzo village, where during

the last most relevant seismic shock (September and October
1997) many events seriously damaged the main roads
(ss209, ss320) and the Village itself (Marzorati et al. 2002;
Guzzetti and Reichembach 2004).
The tool described in this paper was employed within a
semi-automatic procedure for the complete definition of risk
scenarios associated with rockfalls using laser scanning
technologies.
Geomechanical surveys were executed using traditional
methodology and laser scanning technique on the main rock
wall, near the village of Triponzo, where the Maiolica For-
mation (micritic limestones) outcrops (Fig. 1).
A total of more than 400 discontinuity planes were
extracted from the high resolution point cloud of the rock
wall (Fig. 2), and their orientation was employed as input
Fig. 1 The investigated rock wall next to Triponzo village
parameter for the kinematic analysis together with the high
resolution DEM obtained by processing laser scanning data.
In this way a wider portion of the rock mass has been
Description of the Algorithm investigated, with respect to traditional surveying methods,
with a consequent higher significance from a statistical point
Rock faces with rugged shape can be investigated by of view.
inspecting the discontinuity surfaces exposed on the slope. In particular, for the definition of the main source areas, a
Such 3D approach requires the extraction of clusters of spatial kinematic analysis has been performed by using
points belonging to the same discontinuity plane from the discontinuity orientation data extracted from the point
point cloud; subsequently, a spatial analysis for the quanti- cloud by Diana.
tative description of discontinuities within the rock mass has This kind of analysis is able to establish where a particu-
to be performed. lar instability mechanism is kinematically feasible, given the
The proposed approach is described in detail in Gigli and geometry of the slope and the orientation of discontinuities
Casagli (2011), and is based on the definition of least squares (Goodman and Bray 1976; Hoek and Bray 1981; Matheson
fitting planes on clusters of points extracted by moving a 1983; Hudson and Harrison 1997).
sampling cube on the point cloud. If the associated standard The main instability mechanisms investigated with this
deviation is below a defined threshold, the cluster is consid- approach are: plane failure; wedge failure; block toppling;
ered valid. By applying geometric criteria it is possible to flexural toppling.
join all the clusters lying on the same surface; in this way Casagli and Pini (1993) introduced a kinematic hazard
discontinuity planes can be reconstructed, and rock mass index for each instability mechanism. These values are cal-
geometrical properties are calculated. culated by counting poles and discontinuities falling in criti-
The advantage of using this procedure lies in its capabil- cal areas.
ity to investigate all the geomechanical parameters that do A spatial kinematic analysis was performed on each unit
not require direct access to the rock mass, thus, making this a triangle of the surface model by applying the method pro-
more complete analysis with respect to the existing methods. posed by Lombardi (2007), which extends the validity of
The output ISRM (1978) parameters are: orientation, num- kinematic analysis concepts to overhanging slopes.
ber of sets, spacing/frequency (and derived RQD), persis- From the kinematic analysis results (Fig. 3) it follows that
tence, block size and scale dependent roughness. the slope next to the village of Triponzo is subject to insta-
bility related to plane failure, wedge failures and flexural
toppling, and the main source areas, useful for runout
Field Applications simulations, were extracted.
Triponzo (Umbria Region, Central Italy)

Chiessi (Elba Island, Tuscany)
Due to its morphology, seismicity and geomechanical
features of rock masses, the valley formed by the Nera In the western sector of Elba Island, the monzograntic body
river (Valnerina) is characterized by high rock fall risk of Mt. Capanne, and its associated termo-metamorphic aure-
especially in the villages and along the main roads. Rock ole outcrop (Barberi and Innocenti 1966; Dini et al. 2002).
Extraction of Rock Mass Structural Data from High Resolution Laser Scanning Products 91
Fig. 2 Point cloud coloured

based on the different joint sets
(red: Jn1; blue: Jn2; yellow: BG)
and polygons bounding the
extracted discontinuities (left).
Stereographic projection of
discontinuity pole density, and
modal planes (right)
Fig. 4 The investigated rock mass
the beautiful panoramic route of the Provincial Road n. 25

that is located on the hillside.
In order to investigate these phenomena, an accurate
geomechanical survey has been carried out by using tradi-
tional methods as well as advanced semi-automatic remote
sensing applications (Gigli and Casagli 2011).
Figure 5a reports the stereographic projection of poles
Fig. 3 Kinematic analysis results: (a) Planar failure; (b) wedge failure; and density contour lines of the traditionally surveyed
(c) block toppling; (d) flexural toppling discontinuities, where five different joint sets can be
recognized.
From a geomorphologic point of view the investigated A laser scanning survey of the whole investigated area
area is characterized by extremely steep rock slopes (Fig. 4), has been carried out with the following purposes:
which, due to their high fracturing and to the occurrence of – To build a detailed 3D model;
an important slope dipping joint set, often experience the – To accurately define the risk scenarios by extracting the
detachment of rock blocks of various dimensions. The most shape of the main blocks and calculating their volume;
credible scenario is thus associated to the plane or wedge – To integrate the traditional geomechanical survey in inac-
failure of large portions of rock mass. These blocks threaten cessible areas by applying the DiAna tool.
occurrence of slipping planes which are able to isolate very

large portion of rock mass (Figs. 4 and 7).
Should this kind of event happen, the defense barrier
would be destroyed and the road plane would be covered
by a huge amount of rock debris.
For this reason a detailed stability analysis of the main
overhanging masses has been carried out. The most impor-
tant parameter for this analysis is the frictional resistance
acting on the basal plane, which, in turn, depends on the
uniaxial compressive strength of the discontinuity walls and
on the surface roughness (Patton 1966; Barton 1973, 1976).
The most practical method for estimating the roughness of a
discontinuity plane is by visual comparison of sampled
roughness profiles with standard profiles published by
Barton and Choubey (1977). Moreover, it has been observed
that discontinuity roughness is characterized by a very
marked scale effect (Barton and Bandis 1982).
To overcome this problem a 3D approach can be pursued,
as suggested by ISRM (1978), by sampling the local surface
orientation with a compass and disc clinometers with differ-
ent diameters. This procedure requires however direct acces-
sibility to the discontinuity plane and is quite time
consuming, as a minimum number of 250 measures is
suggested for the operation to be valid. The proposed algo-
rithm fits in well with these concepts and allows us to rapidly
perform quantitative measures of the roughness of the main
discontinuity surfaces at various scales.
A searching cube with different dimensions (0.1, 0.2, 0.4,
1, 2 m and maximum surface persistence) is moved along the
Fig. 5 Stereographic projection of discontinuity poles and modal planes
from the field survey (a) and from the semi-automatic analysis (b) point cloud representing the selected discontinuity. If the
number of points within the cube exceeds a prescribed
Figure 5b reports the poles of the semi-automatically threshold (to make sure the selection is centred on the
extracted discontinuities. A total of 1,359 planes have been surface) the best fitting plane dip and dip direction are
recognized and their density contour lines are very similar to obtained, and associated points are extracted from the sur-
those obtained by means of traditional surveys. With the aim face. By plotting the orientation values on a stereoplot, the
of identifying the main discontinuity sets, each plane has discontinuity roughness angles at various scales can be
been assigned a weight (W) based on the product between its measured.
surface area and the number of points constituting it; the It is worth stressing that the reliability of this procedure
poles have been consequently drawn with different symbols depends mainly on the accuracy of the point cloud data; if it
based on the log10W. is too low, this could lead to an overestimation of surface
By observing Fig. 5b the poles with higher weight are roughness (Rahman et al. 2006), especially for small scale
clustered according to seven different discontinuity sets, analyses (0.1, 0.2 m), or low resolution point clouds.
reported in Fig. 6. Figure 8 reports the stereographic projection of the rough-
Thus the high resolution of the point cloud allowed the ness characteristics for different reference dimensions, cal-
semi-automatic method to analyzed a higher number of culated for the basal plane represented in Fig. 7. We can
poles and to distinguish even those discontinuity sets observe how the pole scattering decreases with increasing
separated by low dihedral angles. reference cube dimension, while the very high scattering
The presence of an important discontinuity set with high associated to small reference cube dimension are probably
persistence dipping with slope due to rock foliation (FO) due to the relative low accuracy of the laser scanning
(Jn3 in Fig. 5a; Jn5 in Fig. 5b; Fig. 6e), is responsible for the measurements.
Extraction of Rock Mass Structural Data from High Resolution Laser Scanning Products 93
Fig. 6 Main joint sets extracted from the point cloud. (a) Jn1; (b) Jn2; (c) Jn3; (d) Jn 4; (e) Jn5 (FO); (f) Jn6; (g) Jn7; (h) all
Fig. 7 Plane failure surface along high persistence discontinuity
For the stability analyses, the frictional resistance

associated to large scale roughness (reference cube Fig. 8 Surface roughness represented by pole scattering calculated by
varying the reference cube dimension
dimensions: 1, 2 m) was calculated, and the resulting Factor
of safety of the investigated rock masses are quite low,
ranging from 1.14 to 1.27. For this reason a real time moni- The presented applications show how the proposed
toring system equipped with meteo-station and crack gauges method can be useful to improve and integrate data
has been installed. acquired by means of traditional field surveys.
Conclusions
With the aim of extracting 3D structural information References
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Barton NR (1973) Review of a new shear strength criterion for rock
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posed method. Mech Min Sci Geomech Abstr 13:1–24
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Geological and Geophysical Tests to Model a Small
Landslide in the Langhe Hills
Sabrina Bonetto, Cesare Comina, Andrea Giuliani, and Giuseppe Mandrone
Abstract
In April 2009, North-West Italy was interested by heavy rainfalls that triggered several
landslides, especially of shallow type, and caused relevant rise of water level in many
rivers, in some cases even beyond the alert level. Particularly in the hills near Alba (NW
Italy), many landslides occurred, most of them belonging to the debris flow or soil slip
types. In this area, a small but interesting landslide involved a local road and a high quality,
recently planted, vineyard. The present study shows the use of different disciplinary
approaches focused to understand the behaviour of this landslide: in particular, besides
geological and geomorphologic studies, detailed topographic and geophysical surveys
together with an in situ geotechnical/geomechanic characterization were applied. The
combined interpretation of the different techniques and of field observations allowed to
define a geological and technical model of the landslide, both in surface than in depth, that
clarified the triggering mechanism of the landslide and allowed to perform a back analysis
on both strength and pore pressure parameters.
Keywords
Heavy rainfall Heterogeneous rock masses Geophysical tests Landslide Langhe
NW-Italy
Introduction 2009 was, in fact, the third rainiest month in the last century,
and it followed a particular rainy and a very snowy winter
The study area is located in the southern Piedmont’s hilly too. For these reasons, a remarkable rise of water level in
territory (Langhe), near Alba (Fig. 1a). The geology is most of the rivers (especially Tanaro and Po Rivers) and the
represented by sedimentary units mainly composed of ter- triggering of many landslides were observed. In this respect,
rigenous successions of interbedded layers of sandstone, Langhe hills are well known for their tendency to slide,
marls and siltstone which are shaped with a typical “cuestas” especially with planar type movements (Cruden and Varnes
morphology. 1996), that mainly occurred on the gently dipping slope, and
In this zone, between 26th and 28th April 2009 heavy are very interesting for the very low angle of the sliding
rainfall, substantially exceeding the monthly values, were surfaces (Mandrone 2004). On the contrary, steep slopes are
recorded (among 150 and 200 mm, which corresponds to mainly interested by surface phenomena connected to the
about 25 % of average annual rainfalls). Moreover, this movement of the covers, such as earth flows or rotational
event was anticipated by a particular rainy period: April earth slides.
As it can be observed in Fig. 1b, the study area is
characterized by many recent landslides related to the men-
S. Bonetto (*) C. Comina A. Giuliani G. Mandrone tioned rain event. The present study is focalized on a small
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università degli Studi di Torino,
Via Valperga Caluso 35, Torino, Italy
failure, about 100 m long 50 m wide, involving a road and
e-mail: [email protected] a recently planted vineyard (Fig. 1b). A multidisciplinary

96 S. Bonetto et al.
information about the overburden thickness, the geometry of

the sliding surface and the groundwater pathways (Godio
and Bottino 2001; Suzuki and Higashi 2001). On the other
hand, seismic methods can be used to infer the mechanical
structure of the sliding body. Seismic refraction is particu-
larly useful to detect discontinuities in the subsoil where
strong contrast of seismic velocity have occurred between
near surface degraded materials and stable bedrock. How-
ever, the low sensitivity to the solid skeleton properties in
saturated soils, due to the influence of water on the P wave
velocity, and the lack of resolution of surface refraction
tomography affects the reliability of the P-waves analysis.
Fig. 1 Location map and geological setting of the study area. (a) In this respect, a combined acquisition of S-wave velocities
Geological sketch map of Tertiary Piedmont Basin (TPB): (a) thrust will help in delineating a more complete framework (e.g.
fault, (b) fault, (c) study area; (b) geological setting of the study area:
(1) Diano d’Alba Sandstones F., (2) Sant’Agata Fossili Marls F., (3) Jongmans et al. 2000).
recent landslides occurred in April 2009, (4) strike and dip of beds. The Geophysical tests usually are not completely adequate
studied area is marked by a red circle alone, so the combined use with other geotechnical surveys
(e.g. drillings or penetration tests, as in this study) will
integrated approach (Chelli et al. 2006) has been adopted: strongly help in confirming the uncertainties deriving from
topographic surveys, geophysical surveys and geotechnical their evidence.
characterization were combined to obtain a geological and
technical model of the slope.
A common task in slope stability studies is to retrieve the Geological and Morphological Setting
internal structure and the mechanical properties of the soil
characterizing the slope together with the groundwater cir- The studied area (Fig. 1a) belongs to the Tertiary Piedmont
culation. It is indeed of major importance to determine the Basin (Gelati and Falletti 1996). This sequence forms a
geometry of slope instability, particularly the position of the gentle NW dipping uplifting structure, characterized by
sliding surface, in order to facilitate reliable analyses and “cuestas” morphogenesis carried out by fluvial erosion.
mitigation (Bruno and Marillier 2000). Indeed, the hills of the Langhe are characterized by asym-
In many cases, the information on the depth and lateral metrical slopes that range from 25 to 40 towards SW and
continuity of the sliding surface cannot be obtained through from 10 to 25 towards NW.
boreholes (due to the cost of drilling) or geological This geological sequence is intersected by a series of
investigations, as well as the identification of water distribu- faults mainly NE-SW and NW-SE trending. In some areas,
tion inside the slope. Geophysical techniques can be these faults produced joints, sometimes very pervasive in
profitably used for this purpose. Satisfactory results in the surface. Most of the discontinuities are weathered due to
investigation of landslides by means of a combination of water circulation; as an evidence of the high jointing level
geophysical and geotechnical techniques are reported by producing a surface water reservoir, the presence of many
many authors (e.g. Mauritsch et al. 2000). Moreover, when perpetual springs and shallow wells is noted (Mandrone
shallow and small landslides are concerned, as in the present 2004). The drainage pattern is mainly controlled by mor-
study, geophysical tests can be strongly cost effective in phology: main rivers cut deeply the landscape, according
respect to other invasive methods. Best practice suggests NE-SW faults trending, while most of the second-order
that various (direct and indirect, surface and subsurface) streams mainly follow others geological structures in NW-
methods should be used and cross checked to obtain more SE direction.
realistic results and best data to plan monitoring systems and Two geological formations characterize in detail the stud-
mitigation. ied area (Fig. 1b): the Diano d’Alba Sandstones Formation at
In respect to geophysical techniques, water circulation the top of the hill, and the S. Agata Fossili Marls Formation,
paths or infiltration zones may successfully be delineated in the lower part of the slope. The former is represented by
by electric resistivity methods (Bogoslovsky and Ogilvy sand and sandstones dark-grey or yellowish coloured, some
1977; McCann and Forster 1990; Hack 2000). Moreover metres thick, interbedded to clayey-sandy marls, some
the limit between unstable weathered material and underly- decimetres thick. The latter is characterized by marls and
ing stable bedrock is possible where they have different clayey-marls, blue-grey coloured. These formations are usu-
porosities and thus different resistivity values. The imaging ally considered as impermeable, but a remarkable water
of the electrical properties of the subsoil can thus provide circulation takes place during heavy or prolonged rainfalls
Geological and Geophysical Tests to Model a Small Landslide in the Langhe Hills 97
Fig. 3 Longitudinal section of landslide (for location see Fig. 2):

(1) displaced material, (2) Diano d’Alba Sandstones F., (3) Sant’Agata
Fig. 2 Details of the landslide and of the field investigations: (1) Fossili Marls F., (4) sliding surface
landslide borders, (2) road, (3) track, (4) main scarp, (5) minor scarp,
(6) water impoundments, (7) dynamic penetration test sites, (8) GPS
ground control point and total station bases, (9) geophysical arrays, (10) was paid to a wet area observed in the lower part of the slide,
trace of geological section, (11) slide, (12) flow, (13) man-made slope
where evidence of liquefaction of the sandy levels was
widespread.
within the coarser levels and/or within the less cemented
The foot of the landslide over passed the road: it is
ones. The bedrock coverage is usually very thin (less than
represented by a debris flow of the displaced material. Luck-
half meter) and characterized by silts and fine sands.
ily, a rural house located just a few meters below the road
These geological structures are responsible for the ten-
wasn’t affected by the landslide; all dismembered material
dency of the area to slide: last widespread events were
lying on the road was immediately taken away to permit
during the flooding of November 1994 (Bottino et al.
local traffic.
2000). Furthermore, the landslides themselves create typical
Just on the other side of the hill, a man made trench was
landforms that play an important role in their further devel-
observed (Fig. 3). This trench acts as agricultural channel
opment and reactivation.
and collects water from houses and fields located to the E of
the study area; due to the abundant rainfalls of the days
immediately before the sliding, it should be almost full
Field Surveys when the slope failed.
Topography and Morphometry of the Landslide

Geological/Geomechanic Characterization
The landslide involved a concave slope dipping SW of about
20 which is cut by a road just at the bottom (Figs. 2 and 3). The outcropping geological formations are characterized by
After the event, a field survey was carried out on the area: alternations of sands (differently cemented) and clays or
preliminary surface observations pointed out two scarps, at claystones. They are generally subjected to quick meteoric
the top of the landslide area, with height of about 1 m each. weathering when outcropping. According to the mechanical
Using a total station, a more detailed topographic survey classification proposed by Marinos and Hoek (2001), the
investigated the landslide and a significant area around it, Arenarie di Diano d’Alba Formation represents a heteroge-
allowing to define the morphometry after the failure. neous rock mass, belonging to the C type, with a GSI (Hoek
Georeferentiation was obtained using information from and Brown 1997) equal to 35. Furthermore, this complex
accurate location of ground control points during post- shows low-quality geomechanical properties, with the uni-
processing elaborations. These points (three stations) were axial compressive strength of the intact rock elements (sci)
collected through a GPS device (dual frequency, dual- of about to 5 MPa and mi (constant defining the frictional
constellation RTK GPS, 24 GPS + 11 GLONASS Satellites characteristics of mineral components in the rock elements)
with fully integrated receiver/antenna). Data elaboration was of 10 (Mandrone 2006).
carried out by a GIS system to relate the collected data with The Marne di S. Agata Fossili Formation outcrops in a
the following digital thematic cartographies. lower position: mostly made up of silts and clayey-silts
Water must have played an important role, as humidity belonging to Flysh type G (undisturbed silty or clayey
traces were clearly visible for many days after the event in shale with or without few very thin sandstone layers), and
different parts of the landslide body, in particular in the can be also reference as weak, heterogeneous rock masses
central and in the lower part of the slide. Particular attention (WH type; sci ¼ 2 MPa, mi ¼ 7). This formation is deeply
influenced by degree of saturation, showing a brittle to sequence; with such a sequence, it is indeed possible to
ductile transition at low lithostatic pressure. In respect to obtain a good compromise between both vertical and lateral
water circulation, this formation may be considered almost resolution. Due to the relatively shallow expected sliding
impermeable. surface, reduced arrays length were used allowing for an
From an hydrogeological point of view, a remarkable investigation depth of about 10 m. Acquired data were
water circulation takes place within the coarser levels and/ inverted by the commercial inversion code Res2Dinv®
or within those less cemented, or along the more open joints (Loke and Barker 1996).
of faults. Seismic tomographies were performed only along the
maximum slope line (B-B0 line) but, in order to retrieve
both S and P wave velocities, different sources and sensors
Geotechnical Characterization were used. For P waves, an array of 24 vertical 4.5 Hz
geophones with 2 m spacing and a vertical hammer source
Geotechnical surveys were done some days after the land- were used; for S waves, an array of 24 swyphonestm
slide event. For in situ surveys, a light dynamic penetrometer (Sambuelli and Deidda 1999) with 2 m spacing and an appro-
was used with 30 kg weight hammer falling from a height of priate SH source were adopted. Different shot positions were
20 cm. Three tests (PP1, PP2 and PP3) were carried out in the used along the survey line in order to have adequate data for
central part of the main body of the landslide, along a line tomographic interpretation. Both arrays were acquired with a
also used for geophysical surveys (Fig. 2), in order to verify Geometrics Geode Seismograph and interpreted for tomo-
the state of the subsoil (according to the mechanical resis- graphy with the commercial code Rayfract®. The use of
tance) and to obtain approximate location of the sliding swyphonestm allowed a reduced time acquisition since no
surface. inversion of the source was necessary. The measuring
The results of the three surveys are reported in Fig. 4. All techniques for S wave velocities usually require a more
tests revealed a general increase in soil density with depth. complex acquisition, which are particularly difficult to be
First change is evident at 0.8–1 m of depth, probably in attained – especially in complicated logistical conditions
correspondence of the soil-subsoil transition. However, at such as the ones that commonly characterize landslide sites.
this depth, a still low subsoil resistance is noted; an abrupt The results of the two electric tomographies are shown in
change in penetration resistance can be instead observed at Fig. 5. A very shallow (1–1.5 m) dry layer overlying a zone
about 3–3.5 m of depth, where the bedrock was probably of reduced resistivity can be noticed. This zone is located
reached. inside the sliding body and is probably related to porous wet
Since a non-standard penetrometer was used, no relations material. At the bottom of this high-conductivity zone,
are attempted of the N-value with specific soil properties, evidence of an increase in resistivity can be related to
and only qualitative profiles referred to penetration resis- the contact between the landslide body and the bedrock.
tance of the soil and subsoil were used, particularly to A very good coherence in the results of the two surveys
integrate and validate the results of geophysical tests. The can be observed, particularly in the overlapping central
grain-size distribution curve of samples of dismembered zone where both images underline a decrease in resistivity
material collected within the main landslide body was also in the central part of the slope. This can be explained by the
obtained, corresponding to weakly silty-clayey sand. presence of preferential flow path that can have favoured the
sliding movement. Indeed, field evidence underlined the
presence of a significant amount of water in this area right
Geophysical Surveys after landslide activation.
With respect to seismic tomographies, in Fig. 6 the results
Two different geophysical methods were applied: respec- of P and S wave tests are shown. From both images, a clear
tively, electric and seismic tomography (concerning both P evidence of the contact between the displaced material and
and S waves velocities) along the major and minor axis of the stable rock can be evidenced, helping to delineate the
the ellipse drawn by the border of the landslide (for location, sliding surface. The P wave tomography seems to identify
see Fig. 2). the presence of a low water table (around 15 m depth for P
Electric tomographies were acquired with two different wave velocities of 1,500 m/s). This is coherent with previous
spreads of 32 electrodes with 1.5 m electrode spacing data in the area since the tests were executed some times
deployed along the B-B0 and C-C0 lines, to provide an after the rainfall events, and a requilibration of the water
image of the slope in both directions. The acquisition used level probably occurred. In this respect, the results of the
a PASI tomograph and a Wenner-Schlumberger measuring electric tomographies can be reinterpreted by excluding the
Fig. 4 Technical profiles of the PP1 PP2 PP3

dynamic penetrometer tests 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
N-value N-value N-value
0.1 0.1 0
0.4 0.4 0.4
0.7 0.7 0.8
1.2
1 1
1.6
1.3 1.3 2
Depth (m)
Depth (m)
Depth (m)
1.6 1.6 2.4
1.9 1.9 2.8
2.2 2.2 3.2
2.5 2.5 3.6
4
2.8 2.8
4.4
3.1 3.1 4.8
3.4 3.4 5.2
3.7 3.7 5.6
Maximum
90 -2 Slope line
depth [m]
85 -4
80
75
-6
-8
b
Resistivity [Ohm.m]
70
65 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
60 X [m]
[m]
-2
55
th
-4
50
dep
-6
45
40 -8
35
30 5
25 10
20 15
15 20
10 25
5 30
35
a
40
X [m
]
Fig. 5 Electric topographies, executed (a) longitudinal (B0 -B) and (b)
transversal (C0 -C) to the slope, and probable position of the sliding
surface (thick black line). On the right, a combined view of the two
sections
presence of saturated material near the surface, and by

attributing the decrease in resistivity to wet material with
some clay content (cf. grain size distribution curves). Due to
the increased sensitivity of shear waves to the soil skeleton
properties, the S wave tomography is instead more able to
delineate the variations in the structure of the soil near the
slope. Indeed, the presence of a reduced velocity zone just in Fig. 6 Seismic P wave tomography and seismic S wave tomography
executed longitudinal (B0 -B) to the slope with probable position of the
the middle of the slope is highlighted. The position of this sliding surface (thick black line)
zone is very coherent with the reduced resistivity of the
central portion of the slope body, and can be related to Instead, if the aim is to understand complex systems (like
loose material which favoured the water flow in the slope. most landslides), by investigating a small phenomenon may
allow to limit the unknowns and point out its peculiarities. In
this case, the small size of the studied landslide (both in area
Discussion and depth) allowed the application of relatively standard
methodologies. The integration of these simple techniques
Very often, small landslides are overlooked in term of geo- suggests new approaches and solutions which can be applied
technical parameters by scientific research because risk also to more complex geological situations.
associated with them are usually – but not always – negligi- In particular, the applications of multidisciplinary
ble. In particular, small landslides are mostly considered approach allowed to: (1) identify the shape of the sliding
from a statistical point of view, identifying – for example – surface, (2) characterize the geological materials from a
threshold of rainfall to predict further failures (Aleotti 2004; technical point of view and (3) give suggestions about the
Campus et al. 2000; Crosta 1998). Of course, detailed stud- role of groundwater. Only at this point of the research a
ies on many small landslide are too expensive in term of numerical modelling, to better understand the triggering of
cost/benefits, especially if they do not represent a serious the phenomenon, including the definition of shear strength
risk for society. However, even small phenomena can pose resistance parameters and pore pressures acting at the time
risk to people, lifelines and productive activities. of sliding, is possible.
Fig. 7 Poisson ratio map in relation to of penetrometer tests along the major axis of the landslide
Fig. 8 Slope stability analysis Safety Factor

27.5
SANDSTONE SILTSTONE
with minor safety factor value 0.000 Unsaturated Unit Weight: 20 kN/m3
Saturated Unit Weight: 22 kN/m3
coherent with measured sliding 0.500 Unconfined Compressive Strength (intact): 5000 kPa
mb: 0.0963014
surface. Keys: S.S. sandstone and 1.000 s: 1.97307 e-005
26
a: 0.51595
siltstone, S. sandy level, M. marl, 1.500 Water Surface: Water Table
w water table in S.S., 1 pressured 2.000 MARLS

Unit Weight: 21 kN/m3
22.5
water table in S. 2.500 Unconfined Compressive Strength (intact): 2000 kPa

mb: 0.402028
3.000 s: 0.000137913
a: 0.543721
3.500 Water Surface: None
20
SANDSTONE
4.000 Unsaturated Unit Weight: 19 kN/m3
Saturated Unit Weight: 23 kN/m3
4.500 Unconfined Compressive Strength (intact): 50000 kPa
mb: 0.233984
5.000 s: 4.53999e-005
17.5
a: 0.511368
5.500 Water Surface: Piezometric Line 1
6.000+ METHOD
gle/morgenstern-price
15
1.016
12.5
s.s.
s.
10
M.
7.5
5
2.5 m
-5 m -2.5 0 2.5 5 7.5 10 12.5 15 17.5 20
Field observations and geophysical investigations resistance. Moreover, a remarkable difference is observed
highlighted that the landslide probably involved also the between the different locations of penetrometer tests. In
bedrock, and that the landslide body was composed by particular, near the PP2 test, a reduced resistance zone was
silty-sand about 3–4 m thick. Coherently with field found.
observations and dynamic penetrometer tests, the sliding Different conceptual models were supposed in the pre-
surface extracted from geophysical tests seemed to have a liminary stage of the study, and numerical simulations aided
compound shape (rotational and translational). In this to select the most realistic one.
respect, in Fig. 7 a representation based on the poisson In particular, we were successful to reconstruct the
ratio extracted from the P and S wave velocity values is observed sliding surface introducing the following
used to relate the results of both seismic and penetrometer characteristics: (1) a high permeable sandy level below the
tests. A very good correspondence is observed between the landslide, were the wet level is located, implemented the
two results: particularly, the decrease in poisson ratio from simple geology of the slope; this level is probably connected
typical values of shallow unconsolidated soils to the ones of to the channel at the top of the hill thanks to the jointing of
more consistent and compacted bedrock is observed with a the rock mass in that area, (2) a free water table in the Diano
high correspondence with the increase in penetration d’Alba formation close to the surface (“w” in Fig. 8), (3)
a pressured fast water circulation in the sandy level (“1” in technical support in the field measurements. We are indebted with
Fig. 8) fed by waters in the channel at the top of the hill. Politecnico di Torino for the permission of using geophysical
instrumentations.
As a matter of fact, the main triggering mechanisms for
this small landslide had both natural and man made origin.
According to field evidence and using this conceptual
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Regional Distribution of Ash-Fall Pyroclastic Soils
for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment
Pantaleone De Vita and Michele Nappi
Abstract
Debris flows involving ash-fall pyroclastic soils, which mantle slopes in the mountain ranges
around the Somma-Vesuvius, represent a relevant societal risk. In the last years, many
methods were applied to evaluate susceptibility and mobility of these landslides, considering
at least two fundamental parameters: the slope angle and the thickness of the pyroclastic
mantle. Despite this understanding, the assessment of soil thickness along slopes is still a
challenging issue due to its high spatial variability and the steep morphological conditions
that limit the use of traditional exploration methods. To overcome this problem, heuristic
geomorphological methods were mostly applied up to now. In this paper, a regional-scale
model of the ash-fall pyroclastic soils distribution along slopes is proposed, considering
the isopach maps of each principal eruption. By means of field surveys, the model was
validated and an inverse relationship between thickness and slope angle was found.
Keywords
Debris flows susceptibility Debris flows runout Ash-fall pyroclastic soil thickness
Introduction part of damages and loss of human lives due to landslides

occurred at the feet of the mountainous chain that surround
The areas that surround volcanoes are worldwide recognised the Somma-Vesuvius volcano, where the ash-fall pyroclastic
as characterised by a high economic value but prone to risks, overburdens are still prone to become unstable in conse-
directly and indirectly related to the volcanic activity. quence of heavy and prolonged rainfall, events generating
Besides lahars following eruptions, landslides, due to the very rapid debris flows.
instability of ash-fall pyroclastic deposits that mantle slopes Field observations and slope stability modelling led to the
of the surrounding mountain ranges, are the most important understanding that this kind of flow-like landslides are trig-
among the secondary risks. A unique case of this kind of gered by initial small landslides (Jakob and Hungr 2005),
landslide risk is represented in that part of the Campania occurring within the pyroclastic mantle, which subsequently
region (southern Italy) that includes and surrounds the vol- evolve as debris avalanche on open slopes (Hungr et al.
canic centers of the Somma-Vesuvius, the Phlegrean Fields 2001) and becoming debris flows after channelling in the
and the Ischia Island. Owing to the high loss of human lives hydrographic network (Hungr et al. 2001).
and the diffused damages suffered by buildings and The occurrence of a great number of deadly landslides is
infrastructures in the last century, Campania is one of the known from the chronicles of the last century and of recent
regions of Italy most threatened by landslides. The greatest years. Among these events, that occurred between 5 and 6
May 1998 in the Sarno mountain range was a high magni-
tude one because of the initiation of several tens of shallow
P. De Vita (*) M. Nappi landslides, the activation of many debris flows and the loss
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Naples “Federico II”,
Via Mezzocannone, 8, Naples 80132, Italy
of 162 lives. After this major landslide event, national laws
e-mail: [email protected] regarding the assessment of landslide risk were issued and

104 P. De Vita and M. Nappi
many researches were carried out in order to assess landslide the mountain ranges of Avella, Sarno, Lattari, Picentini and
susceptibility and mobility. The studies based on geomor- Salerno. Due to the Miocene and Pliocene tectonic phases,
phological and heuristic approaches demonstrated that the the carbonate series formed mountains and were faulted in
slope morphological conditions and the ash-fall pyroclastic monocline structures with structural slopes controlled by the
thickness along slopes were the fundamental factors recession of fault line scarps. The last extensional tectonic
controlling the instability. In detail, morphological factors, phase determined the sinking of the carbonate tectonic unit
namely morphological discontinuities along slopes and the toward the Thyrrhenian Sea and the formation of a semi-
slope angle itself were recognised as key factors for the graben structure at whose centre the volcanic activity began
assessment of the landslide susceptibility as well as for the in the late Quaternary. The structural depression was filled
slope stability modelling (Celico and Guadagno 1998; by pyroclastic and alluvial deposits mainly erupted from the
Crosta and Dal Negro 2003; Di Crescenzo and Santo 2005; Phlegrean Fields and the Somma-Vesuvius, volcanoes
Guadagno et al. 2005; Cascini et al. 2008; Perriello Zampelli forming the Campanian Plain. The explosive volcanic activ-
et al. 2011). Moreover, different scenarios of debris flows ity determined a number of Plinian and sub-Plinian eruptions
runout (Corominas 1996; Budetta and de Riso 2004) were whose ash-fall products were irregularly distributed within
issued considering both the relative altitude of the landslide the Campanian Plain and on the surrounding mountain
and estimations of the potential debris volumes. The latter ranges, in accordance with the different orientation of the
were inferred by both variable scenarios of areas detached dispersal axes. Considering the principal explosive eruptions,
by shallow landslides and of pyroclastic mantle thickness the most important part of the ash-fall volcaniclastic series
along slopes. The same scenarios were considered in design- was outlined as follows (Rolandi et al. 2000).
ing of passive defence works constructed at the footslopes. The older volcanic deposits are mainly represented by the
Therefore, the distribution along slopes of ash-fall pyroclas- Campanian Ignimbrite (39 k-years), erupted from the
tic soils was considered as a fundamental factor to be Plegrean Fields, for which an ash-fall phase was recognised,
assessed. Different attempts of estimating pyroclastic soil besides of the prevalent ash-flow one. These deposits were
thickness along slopes were carried out applying geophys- named “Ancient Pyroclastic Complex” (APC) (Rolandi et al.
ical surveys in some of the initiation areas of the 5 and 6 May 2000), whose distal ash-fall tephra distribution involved a
1998 landslides and applying geomorphological heuristic wide area of the European continent (Perrotta and Scarpati
methods constrained by field measurements (Cascini et al. 2003). The younger pyroclastic products, named “Recent
2000). Pyroclastic Complex” (RPC) (Rolandi et al. 2000), were
In this paper, we propose a new approach for the assess- erupted by the Somma-Vesuvius constituting the prevalent
ment of the thickness of the pyroclastic mantle based on the deposit that cover slopes of the mountain ranges surrounding
regional distribution of ash-fall pyroclastic deposits and of the Campania Plain. The most important eruptions
their draping deposition along slopes (Fisher 1985). We constituting the RPC were: the Codola eruption, 25 k-
considered previous results (De Vita et al. 2005, 2006, years B.P. (Rolandi et al. 2000); the Sarno eruption, 17 k-
2012), obtained in three sample areas of the Sarno and years B.P. (Rolandi et al. 2000); the Ottaviano eruption,
Lattari mountain ranges, which demonstrated the existence 8.0 k-years B.P. (Rolandi et al. 1993a); the Avellino erup-
of an inverse relationship between the ash-fall pyroclastic tion, 3.6 k-years B.P. (Rolandi et al. 1993b); the Pompei
soil thickness and the slope angle for values greater than 30 , eruption, A.D. 79 (Lirer et al. 1973); the A.D. 472 (Rolandi
up to the bedrock outcropping for values greater than 50 . et al. 1998) and the A.D. 1631 eruption (Rosi et al. 1993).
According with these results, in the slope angle range lower The abovementioned eruptions have had dispersal axes
than 30 , complete volcaniclastic series and thicknesses of mainly oriented eastward and oriented southward only in
the pyroclastic mantle, correspondent to the total ash-fall the case of the Pompei eruption (A.D. 79).
deposits fallen in the area, were observed. The complete volcaniclastic series, constituted by both
the APC and the RPC, were observed in many natural and
artificial outcrops as well as boreholes in the Campania
Geologic Setting Plain. Stratigraphic correlations carried out in the alluvial
plain area showed different spatial distribution of the pyro-
The geology of the mountainous area that surrounds the clastic deposits due to the orientation of the dispersal axes of
volcanic centers of Campania is characterised by a carbonate each eruptions and the erosional action of the drainage
platform pre-orogenic sedimentary series, deposited from network. Despite the gradually variable stratigraphic setting
the Mesozoic to the Cenozoic, which was involved in the that characterises the flat areas, the volcaniclastic series were
Appennine orogenesis during the Miocene and constitute a identified as stratigraphically incomplete and reduced along
thrust tectonic unit. This unit outcrops in Campania forming the slopes due to denudational processes started since the
Regional Distribution of Ash-Fall Pyroclastic Soils for Landslide Susceptibility. . . 105
Fig. 2 Location of test sites
Fig. 1 Isopach map of ash-fall deposits obtained by summing the

contribution of APC and RPC. Symbols: (1) total ash-fall isopachous within the Campanian Plain or at the base of the surrounding
lines; (2) dispersals axes of the main eruptions of the Somma-Vesuvius mountains, we considered as fundamental the comparison of
constituting the RPC (see text) stratigraphic setting and thicknesses of volcaniclastic series
along the slopes with those derived from the regional distri-
bution model. With this purpose, we applied field methods
deposition, as it is clearly demonstrated by ancient debris consisted in test pits and light dynamic penetrometric tests,
flows deposited after or during the eruptions themselves. carrying out 73 field investigations distributed along slopes
of the Avella, Sarno, Lattari, Picentini and Salerno mountain
ranges (Fig. 2).
Data and Methods Test pits were dug by means of hand tools in favourable
morphological conditions, reaching always the carbonate
In order to assess the distribution of ash-fall pyroclastic soils bedrock for thicknesses lower than 4 m. For greater
along slopes, we updated previous results (De Vita et al. thicknesses, the stratigraphic setting and the total thickness
2005) reconstructing the regional distribution of the ash-fall of the pyroclastic mantle were assessed by means of light
tephra by means of the isopach maps known from the volca- dynamic penetrometric tests that were executed down to the
nological literature. The sum of the ash-fall isopach maps of bedrock.
all the considered eruptions was carried out by means of the According to previous results (De Vita et al. 2005, 2006),
respective georeferentiation, conversion in numeric grids we oriented field investigations prevailingly in slope sectors
and algebraic sum in a GIS system (Fig. 1). The new estima- with slope angle values lower than 30 with the purpose to
tion of the total ash-fall deposits resulted slightly different verify the correspondence with the regional distribution
from the preceding one because of the additional implemen- model (Fig. 1).
tation of the ash-fall phase of the APC (Perrotta and Scarpati Field data of thicknesses collected along the slopes were
2003), besides of the RPC deposits. As previously observed elaborated considering real values, namely stratigraphic
(De Vita et al. 2005), the distribution of total ash-fall thickness, estimated as the projection of the apparent thick-
deposits can be recognised as inhomogeneous at the regional ness, measured along the vertical, in the plane normal to the
scale because it is characterised by two main dispersal axes, slope. Thus, the real thickness values (z) were verified
the principal oriented eastward and the secondary southward respect to a theoretical distribution model along slopes,
(Fig. 1). based on the total thickness fallen in the area (z0), derived
Since the thicknesses of ash-fall deposits of each eruption from the regional distribution model (Fig. 1), and the slope
were estimated in outcrops or boreholes mainly located angle (a) (1).
Fig. 3 Comparison between real thicknesses of the pyroclastic mantle

measured along the slopes (dots) and theoretical distribution of ash-fall
pyroclastic soils (dashed curves). The theoretical distributions of three Fig. 4 Frequency analysis of the slope angle in the initiation areas of
sample areas, characterised by different z0 values, are shown: 6 and debris flows occurred on 5 and 6 May 1998 in the Sarno mountain range
5 m, respectively for the southwestern and northeastern slopes of the
Sarno mountain range, and 2.5 m for the northeastern slopes of the slope angle values greater than 28 the ash-fall pyroclastic
Lattari mountain range. The continuous black line represents the upper
envelope
total thickness was found lower than that theoretically fallen
in the same area. Field data confirmed the discontinuity and
the negligible thickness of the pyroclastic mantle for slope
z ¼ zo cos a (1)
angle values greater than 50 .
The abovementioned model of distribution was consid-
ered as the effect of the denudational processes, including
landsliding, which reached a dynamic equilibrium, between
Results resisting and driving forces, leading to slope instability, in
which vegetation and rainfall triggering events play a spa-
The approach based on the validation of the ash-fall distri- tially and temporally variable role.
bution model at the regional scale through the comparison This model was found in good agreement with the fre-
with stratigraphic settings and thicknesses of volcaniclastic quency of the slope angle values analysed in the initiation
series allowed the reconstruction of a regional distribution areas of debris flows occurred on 5 and 6 May 1998. From
model of the ash-fall pyroclastic deposits within the this comparison, it was observed that the 80 % of the land-
mountains that surround the Somma-Vesuvius. The obtained slide initiated in the slope angle ranging between 32 and
results concerned different aspects which were considered 49 (Fig. 4).
relevant for the assessment of landslide susceptibility and A further analysis based on the comparison of field
mobility as well as for the slope stability modelling. Among thicknesses data, limited to values measured in morphological
these aspects, both the modelling of ash-fall pyroclastic conditions with slope angle values lower than 28 , and the
deposits distribution and the stratigraphic settings of the theoretical thickness (Fig. 1) showed also a good correlation
volcaniclastic series along the slopes were considered. (Fig. 5), which validated the distribution model and allowed
its extension at the regional scale.
Distribution of Pyroclastic Soils Along Slopes

Regional Distribution Model of Ash-Fall
Considering the thickness data collected in a wide range Pyroclastic Deposits
of the mountain areas that surround the Somma-Vesuvius
volcano (Fig. 2), the maximum values measured in each test The previously discussed results allowed the implementa-
site were observed not to exceed the theoretical value fallen tion of a regional distribution model of ash-fall pyroclastic
in that area (Fig. 3), as calculated by the previous formula deposits along slopes by means of a raster GIS environment.
(1). In detail, for slope angle values lower than 28 , the ash- The model was based on the combined application of
fall pyroclastic total thickness was observed as correspon- the ash-fall distribution model derived from the sum of the
dent to that theoretically fallen in the area. Differently, for isopach maps (Fig. 1) and the constraints due to the
Fig. 5 Correlation between the

theoretical and the actual
thickness of the pyroclastic
mantle, derived from field
thickness data. Values are in real
terms
0,00
90,13
180,26
270,39
360,52
450,65
540,78
630,91
721,04
811,17
901,30
991,43
1081,56
1171,69
1261,82
1351,95
1442,08
Meters
5000
Fig. 6 Regional distribution model of ash-fall pyroclastic deposits in

the area surrounding the Somma-Vesuvius volcano. The thickness
values are in centimetres and expressed in real terms
observations that the thickness of the pyroclastic mantle

Fig. 7 Representative volcaniclastic series found in conservative areas
decreases for slope angle values greater than 28 up to the of the Sarno Mountain range
annulment for values greater than 50 (Fig. 6).
Based on such a model, a total volume of about
and technical classification of horizons by means of the
73 106 m3 was estimated for ash-fall pyroclastic deposits
USCS system (De Vita et al. 2006).
existing in the critical slope angle range between 28
Complete volcaniclastic series were found in morpholog-
and 50 .
ical conservative areas (with slope angle lower than 28 ) of
the Avella, Sarno, Lattari, Salerno and Picentini mountain
ranges. Due to the different orientation of dispersal axes of
Stratigraphic Setting of the Volcaniclastic Series each eruption, different complete stratigraphic settings were
Along Slopes found. In the conservative areas of the Sarno mountain
range, complete volcaniclastic series were observed as
Test pits carried out in different sites allowed reconstructing constituted by (Figs. 7 and 8): (1) A horizon, classified as
the stratigraphic setting of the volcaniclastic series. In order an organic soil (Pt); (2) B horizon, consisting of strongly
to describe the stratigraphy, considering also the pedoge- weathered and pedogenised fine and coarse pumiceous
netic horizons formed during the periods following each ashes, corresponding to a slightly plastic sand with silt
eruptions, we adopted a criterion based on the recognition (SM); (3) C horizon, namely “parent material”, consisting
of the principal pedogenetic horizons (USDA 2010; of scarcely weathered pumiceous gravels, ranging from
Terribile et al. 2000) combined with the litostratigraphic coarse ash to lapilli in grain size, classified as clean gravel
79 eruption. Also in this case, a basal paleosol wrapping the

carbonate bedrock was found. The basal paleosol was
attributed to the remnants of deposits of the APC.
The reduction of the thickness of the pyroclastic soil
mantle for slope angle greater than 28 , up to its annulment
for slope angle values greater than 50 , was observed to have
a strong influence on the stratigraphic settings of the
volcaniclastic series along the slopes (De Vita et al. 2006).
The reduction of the total thickness was found to determine
the downstream pinch out of the pyroclastic horizons, both C
and Bb horizons, up to the direct overlying of the B horizon
on the Bbbasal horizon.
Conclusions
The results discussed in this paper can be considered a
further, but not ultimate, step to link the assessment of
landslide susceptibility at the regional scale to a distribu-
tion model of ash-fall pyroclastic soils in the areas
surrounding the volcanic centers of the Campania region.
The modeling of the ash-fall distribution, considering
both the thickness and the stratigraphic settings of the
pyroclastic mantle, was considered an advance for the
understanding of slope instability in volcaniclastic soil
mantled slopes. In fact the pyroclastic soil thickness
evaluation and mapping was commonly recognized as a
fundamental achievement for the assessment of landslide
susceptibility, from the preliminary to the advanced zon-
Fig. 8 Comparison between the two types of surveys applied in the ing levels (Fell et al. 2008). Regarding the zoning of
field: test pit and light dynamic penetrometer test. The logs of dynamic susceptibility at the regional scale, the discussed
resistance were used to reconstruct the thickness of the pyroclastic
mantle and the stratigraphic setting in the cases of total thickness
approach would allow identifying those slope sectors
greater than 4 m covered by ash-fall pyroclastic soils and with slope
angle values ranging from 28 to 50 as potentially unsta-
ble. Moreover, about the zoning at the site specific or
and sand from well to poor graded (GW and GP), ascribed to detailed scale, the model would permit to recognise the
the A.D. 472 eruption; (4) Bb horizon, consisting of strongly higher landslide susceptibility conditions as corresponding
weathered fine ash deposits, representing buried B, and with the pinch out of the pyroclastic horizons were pore
subordinately A, horizons, (paleosol), classified as sand pressure enhances during heavy rainstorms (De Vita et al.
with silt (SM); (5) Cb horizon, consisting of buried and 2006).
scarcely weathered pumiceous pyroclasts, classified simi- The same approach could be applied in other peri-
larly to C horizon, attributed to the Avellino eruption volcanic areas of the world, whereas ash-fall deposits
(3.6 k-years); (6) 2Bb horizon, consisting of strongly weath- distributed along slopes are prone to instability due to
ered fine ash deposits, representing buried B horizon rainfall-triggered shallow landslides.
(paleosol), classified as sand with silt (SM); (7) 2Cb horizon,
consisting of buried and scarcely weathered pumiceous Acknowledgments This research was supported by the PRIN Project
pyroclasts, classified similarly to C horizon, ascribed to the (2007) “Analysis and susceptibility and hazard zoning for landslides
triggered by extreme events (rainfalll and earthquake)” funded by the
Ottaviano eruption (8.0 k-years); (8) Bbbasal horizon, Ministry for Education, University and Research (MIUR-Italy).
consisting of strongly weathered and pedogenised fine
ashes wrapping the bedrock interface (basal paleosol); (9)
R horizon, consisting of fractured carbonate bedrock with
fractures filled by the Bbbasal paleosol. References
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Geotechnical Features of the Volcanic Rocks Related
to the Arteara Rock Avalanche in Gran Canaria
(Canary Islands, Spain)
Martı́n Jesús Rodrı́guez-Peces, Jorge Yepes Temiño,

and Esther Martı́n-Nicolau
Abstract
The Arteara rock avalanche is developed in the Fataga Group which is related to the first
volcanic stage in the Gran Canaria Island (8.6–13.3 Ma). The materials of the avalanche are
mainly phonolitic ignimbrites and lava flows. We have investigated the geotechnical
quality of the five lithotypes distinguished in the area: (a) phonolitic lava, (b) phonolitic
agglomerate breccia, (c) reddish non-welded ignimbrite, (d) welded fiamme-bearing ignim-
brite, and (e) pumice tuff with lithics. The weak geotechnical properties of the reddish non-
welded ignimbrite, the pumice tuff with lithics and the agglomerate breccia, and their
location at the middle of the slope suggest that these lithotypes can be regarded as potential
sliding surfaces of the avalanche. The geomechanical features of the volcanic rocks found
in this study could be very useful for future studies concerning the modelling of the
mechanism of failure and run out of the Arteara rock avalanche.
Keywords
Canary Islands Geotechnical parameter Gran Canaria Point load test Rock
avalanche Rock mechanics Schmidt hammer
Introduction Schmincke 1976; Bogaard and Schmincke 1998; Schmincke

and Sumita 2010). The Fataga Group comprises lavas flows,
The Arteara rock avalanche is located on the Fataga ravine ignimbrites (welded and non-welded) and fall-out tephras,
(Fig. 1), in the south of Gran Canaria (Canary Islands, all of them with a trachyphonolitic to phonolitic compo-
Spain). This slope instability is a significant case since it is sition. The ignimbrites and lavas are interbedded forming a
the first rock avalanche described in the Canary Islands large sub-horizontal succession of around 600 m thick. In
(Yepes and Lomoschitz 2008, 2009, 2010). The rock ava- general, the phonolitic lavas have the highest thickness and
lanche was developed in the Fataga Group, which is related columnar jointing, while the ignimbrites have more convex
to the first volcanic stage of the Gran Canaria evolution. This profiles.
stage is divided in the Mogán and Fataga formations, which In this paper, the geomechanical features of the main
are dated between 8.6 and 13.3 Ma (McDougall and volcanic rocks involved in the Arteara rock avalanche have
been analysed by means of in situ and laboratory tests and
different empirical correlations. These geotechnical
M.J. Rodrı́guez-Peces (*) E. Martı́n-Nicolau parameters could be very useful for future particular studies
Department of Geodynamics, University Complutense of Madrid. concerning about the modelling of the mechanisms of failure
Ciudad Universitaria, s/n. 28040 Madrid, Spain and run out of the slope instabilities developed in the Fataga
ravine, in particular, the Arteara rock avalanche.
J.Y. Temiño
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Las Palmas de Gran
Canaria, Las Palmas 35017, Spain

112 M.J. Rodrı́guez-Peces et al.
The surface area of the deposit is 0.5 km2 and the estimated
volume is 3.96 hm3. A more detailed geomorphologic
description of the Artera rock avalanche can be found in
Yepes and Lomoschitz (2009). The age of the rock ava-
lanche was estimated as Holocene since it is well preserved
and it is located over a rock-slide deposit of Pliocene age.
Moreover, a pre-Hispanic necropolis (fifteenth century)
exists on the distal area that uses the fallen blocks for
building tombs. This slope instability was caused by the
collapse of a large block of the rock mass of about 300 m
high, with an estimated volume of 2.83 hm3. The energy of
impact triggered the fragmentation of the block and imme-
diately afterward the resulting granular flow of the blocks in
dry conditions.
The avalanche deposit comprises volcanic rocks related
to the substratum (Fataga Group), mainly phonolitic
ignimbrites and lavas. In general, these rocks have a
reddish-brown colour due to weathering or hydrothermal
alteration. In this study, we have distinguished five
lithotypes related to the Arteara rock avalanche: (a) massive
phonolitic lava, (b) phonolitic agglomerate breccia, (c) red-
dish non-welded ignimbrite, (d) welded fiamme-bearing
Fig. 1 Location of the Arteara rock avalanche (see the black square) ignimbrite, and (e) pumice tuff with lithics (Fig. 3).
on the Fataga ravine at the south of Gran Canaria (Canary Islands,
Spain)
Geotechnical Investigations
The characterisation of the mechanical behaviour of the

volcanic rocks involved in the Arteara rock avalanche has
been approached through the study of the strength and
deformability of intact and weathered rock samples
(Fig. 3). These geotechnical parameters should be ideally
tested in uniaxial compression under laboratory conditions
in which the axial strain, strain rate and load can be con-
trolled and measured, and the uniaxial compressive strength,
Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio can be estimated
directly. However, a number of borehole cores are needed
to carry out this test and extracting and carrying such
samples from remote areas across volcanic terrain is very
difficult, expensive and time consuming. For these reasons,
alternative indirect testing methods are often used to esti-
Fig. 2 Panoramic view of the Arteara rock avalanche, which
mate the mechanical behaviour of rocks.
comprises a superficial deposit of reddish blocks that cover the right Measurements of rock strength were made by means of
slope of the Fataga ravine over a prior rock slide. The location of the several in situ tests using a L-type Schmidt hammer, and the
Arteara village and the detailed views of the main lithotypes are point load test in laboratory conditions. The Schmidt ham-
depicted
mer rebound (RL) was obtained following the most recent
procedure suggested by the International Society for Rock
Mechanics (Aydin 2009), while the point load test (PLT)
Arteara Rock Avalanche was performed following the ASTM (2000). The PLT was
expressed in the form of PLT index Is(50). The results of both
The Arteara rock avalanche is a superficial accumulation geotechnical tests were correlated with uniaxial compressive
(1–15 m thick) of large blocks of reddish-brown colour strength (UCS), indirect tensile strength and Young’s modu-
that cover the right slope of the Fataga ravine (Fig. 2). lus following a number of empirical correlations (D’Andrea
Geotechnical Features of the Volcanic Rocks Related to the Arteara Rock Avalanche in. . . 113
Fig. 3 Main lithotypes related

to the Arteara rock avalanche.
(a) massive phonolitic lava,
(b) phonolitic agglomerate
breccia, (c) reddish non-welded
ignimbrite, (d) welded fiamme-
bearing ignimbrite, (e) pumice
tuff with lithics
et al. 1964; Broch and Franklin 1972; Beverly et al. 1979; The unit weight of this material ranges between 19.5 and
Read et al. 1980; ISRM 1985; Xu et al. 1990; Aggistalis 21.3 kN/m3. These values are close to the lower bound of
et al. 1996; Chau and Wong 1996; Quane and Russel 2003; unit weight (19–29 kN/m3) suggested by other researchers
Dinçer et al. 2004; Yasar and Erdogan 2004; Aydin and Basu (Rodrı́guez-Losada et al. 2009). The average Schmidt ham-
2005; Fener et al. 2005; Kahraman et al. 2005; Kiliç and mer rebound (RL) is 43 (9) and the PLT index Is(50) is 4.1
Teymen 2008; Kahraman and Gunaydin 2009). In addition, (2.3) MPa. The Is(50) value agrees with the range of
a number of available borehole samples were used to obtain 0.6–9.4 MPa found by Rodrı́guez-Losada et al. (2009). Con-
the basic friction angle by means of the tilt test (Barton sidering these data, the uniaxial compressive strength (UCS)
1981). Unit weight and absorption of the rock samples of the intact rock is estimated between 62 and 108 MPa, very
were estimated using a hydrostatic balance (AENOR similar to the results (30–114 MPa) found in previous works
1994). Finally, our results have been compared with the (Rodrı́guez-Losada et al. 2009). However, the UCS of
geotechnical properties suggested by other authors for the weathered rock is significantly lower (6–28 MPa), very
main lithotypes of volcanic rocks in the Canary Islands similar to the value of 32.8 MPa estimated by del Potro
(Rodrı́guez-Losada et al. 2007, 2009; González de Vallejo and Hürlimann (2008) for weathered lavas. The UCS of
et al. 2008; del Potro and Hürlimann 2008, 2009). We have weathered rock is very close to the tensile strength value
completed the geotechnical characterisation of the materials (9–14 MPa), which is slightly lower than the suggested value
involved in the Arteara rock avalanche with additional of 19–83 MPa (Rodrı́guez-Losada et al. 2009). The basic
parameters (e.g. Poisson’s ratio and friction angle) in the friction angle ranges between 38 and 41 , being inside the
case that our investigations agree with the results of these range of 36–54 proposed by Rodrı́guez-Losada et al.
prior works. (2009). The estimated Young’s modulus is between 12 and
24 GPa, which is in agreement with the values (15–30 GPa)
suggested by González de Vallejo et al. (2008). Due to the
Massive Phonolitic Lava good correlation between our results and the values pro-
posed by Rodrı́guez-Losada et al. (2009), we have assumed
The phonolitic lavas are mainly located at the top of the a Poisson’s ratio of 0.29 (0.11) from these authors.
Fataga Group, being the most frequent lithology in the area.
These lavas flows are forming a very thick unit of
200–500 m with variable individual thickness between 5 Phonolitic Agglomerate Breccia
and 25 m. The intact rocks have the typical greenish-gray
colour of the phonolites, while the weathered rocks have a The agglomerate breccias are related to thin (1–6 m) and
significant patina of an intense reddish-brown colour. Com- isolated volcanic deposits which are intercalated between
positionally, the unit has both porphyritic and aphanitic the main succession of phonolitic lavas and ignimbrites.
textures (Fig. 3a). The rock massif has a very strong sub- This lithology is mainly composed by rounded and large
vertical jointing, typical of this type of volcanic rocks fragments of phonolitic composition with a greenish-gray
(Fig. 4). In general, the phonolitic lavas show a weathered colour, typical of phonolites (Fig. 3b). In general, the weath-
condition, which seems to be related to the rainfall infiltra- ered rocks have a brownish colour, which seems to be related
tion through the sub-vertical joints. to the rainfall infiltration. The size of the fragments is very
upper bound of the range (0.5–30 MPa) found by other

authors (Rodrı́guez-Losada et al. 2007; González de Vallejo
et al. 2008). The estimated tensile strength is between 1 and
11 MPa, which agrees with the value of 2.5 MPa proposed
by del Potro and Hürlimann (2008). The estimated Young’s
modulus is between 0.7 and 4.6 GPa, which is in agreement
with the values (0.1–4.7 GPa) suggested by previous studies
(del Potro and Hürlimann 2008; González de Vallejo et al.
2008). Considering that our results are in good agreement
with the values proposed by others authors, we have
assumed an internal friction angle of 25–42 (González de
Vallejo et al. 2008).
Reddish Non-welded Ignimbrite
The non-welded ignimbrites are located at the top of the

Fig. 4 Detailed view of the massive phonolitic lava, showing the sub- Mogán Group (trachytic-rhyolitic composition), being the
vertical jointing. See Fig. 2 for site location
contact with the bottom of the Fataga Group. The individual
thicknesses of the rhyolitic to trachytic ignimbrites are
between 1.5 and 6 m. The most significant feature of this
unit of ignimbrites is that presents a reddish-gray colour due
to an intensive hydrothermal alteration of volcanic origin
(Figs. 3c and 6). In addition, these rocks are very weathered
by the rainfall infiltration, showing, in some cases, a most
typical behaviour of a soil than a rock.
The unit weight of this rock ranges between 14.76 and
15.25 kN/m3. These values are in agreement with the unit
weight (9–23 kN/m3) suggested by other researchers
(Rodrı́guez-Losada et al. 2009; González de Vallejo et al.
2008). The obtained RL is 10 (6) and the PLT index Is(50) is
0.4 (0.2) MPa. The Is(50) value agrees with the range of
0.2–6.2 MPa found by Rodrı́guez-Losada et al. (2009) for
non welded ignimbrites. Considering these data, the UCS of
the intact rock is between 5 and 12 MPa, which is similar
with the range (2–5 MPa) proposed by González de Vallejo
et al. (2008) and close to the lower bound of the ranges of
Fig. 5 Detailed view of phonolitic agglomerate breccia, showing the 4–34 MPa and 2.5–58 MPa found by Rodrı́guez-Losada
high heterogeneity of the size of the fragments. See Fig. 2 for site et al. (2007, 2009), respectively. The UCS corresponding
location to a saturated sample is slightly lower (2–4 MPa), very close
to the estimated tensile strength (1 MPa) which can be
variable from 2 cm to 1 m, being very large in several cases related to the lower bound of the range (1–50 MPa)
(f > 2 m). They do not have grain selection and internal suggested by Rodrı́guez-Losada et al. (2009). The Young’s
organization, but are embedded in a sandy or clayey matrix modulus is between 1.7 and 3.1 GPa, which is slightly lower
(Figs. 3b and 5). than the values (4–12 GPa) found by Rodrı́guez-Losada
The unit weight ranges between 18.65 and 21.05 kN/m3, et al. (2009) and del Potro and Hürlimann (2008). In this
which agrees with the range of 12–28 kN/m3 suggested by case, our results are also in agreement with the values
González de Vallejo et al. (2008). The average RL is 16 (4) suggested by other researchers, so we have assumed a fric-
and the PLT index Is(50) is 2.7 (1.7) MPa. Considering tion angle between 25 and 38 (Rodrı́guez-Losada et al.
these data, the UCS for intact rock is between 24 and 2009; González de Vallejo et al. 2008) and a Poisson’s ratio
73 MPa. The lower bound of our results is similar to the of 0.28 (0.13) from Rodrı́guez-Losada et al. (2009).
and González de Vallejo et al. (2008). The average RL is 26

(8) and the PLT index Is(50) is 1.6 (1.2) MPa. The Is(50)
value agrees with the range of 0.2–10 MPa found by
Rodrı́guez-Losada et al. (2007, 2009) for welded
ignimbrites. Considering these data, the estimated UCS of
the intact rock is between 22 and 47 MPa, which agrees with
the ranges of 15–70 MPa and 22–92 MPa found by González
de Vallejo et al. (2008) and Rodrı́guez-Losada et al. (2007,
2009), respectively. However, the UCS considering a sample
with abundant fiammes is slightly lower (6–28 MPa), whose
lower limit is very close to the estimated tensile strength
(3–6 MPa). This value of tensile strength is very close to the
lower limit of the range (3.5–51 MPa) suggested by
Rodrı́guez-Losada et al. (2007, 2009). The obtained basic
friction angle ranges between 36 and 39 , which is inside
the range of 30–40 proposed by Rodrı́guez-Losada et al.
Fig. 6 Detailed view of the reddish non-welded ignimbrite. See Fig. 2 (2009). The estimated Young’s modulus is between 4 and
for site location 10 GPa., which is significant lower than the range
(30–50 GPa) proposed by others authors (Rodrı́guez-Losada
et al. 2009; González de Vallejo et al. 2008) for welded
ignimbrites. This relatively low value of Young’s modulus
could be related to the large number of fiammes. Neverthe-
less, a Poisson’s ratio of 0.20 (0.17) can be assumed
considering the proposal of Rodrı́guez-Losada et al. (2009).
Pumice Tuff with Lithics
The pumice tuffs are related to very thin (0.25–2 m) and

isolated “block and pumice” and “ash and pumice” deposits,
which are intercalated between the main units of
ignimbrites. This lithotype have a yellowish-whitish colour
and is mainly composed of pumice fragments of variable
sizes (2 mm < f < 10 cm) and lithics which comprise
fragments of phonolitic lavas (f < 6 cm) and feldspar
crystals (Figs. 3e and 8).
Fig. 7 Detailed view of the welded ignimbrite, showing a large num- The unit weight of this material ranges between 10.62
ber of fiammes. See Fig. 2 for site location and 14.57 kN/m3., which is in agreement with the range of
8–18 kN/m3 suggested by González de Vallejo et al. (2008).
Welded Fiamme-Bearing Ignimbrite The estimated RL is 9 (5) and the PLT index Is(50) is 1.0
(0.5) MPa. Considering these data, the average uniaxial
The welded ignimbrites are mainly located at the bottom compressive strength of the intact rock is between 8 and
of the Fataga Group. The most significant feature of this unit 24 MPa, which agrees with the range (1–50 MPa) found by
of phonolitic ignimbrites is that it presents a large number of González de Vallejo et al. (2008) for volcanic tuffs. The
fiammes (Figs. 3d and 7). The intact rocks have the typical UCS obtained considering a saturated sample (13–23 MPa)
greenish-gray colour of the phonolites (Fig. 3d), while the is similar to the UCS of the intact rock. In the saturated case,
weathered rocks have a yellowish-brownish colour (Fig. 7). González de Vallejo et al. (2008) proposed UCS values
The unit weight of this ignimbrite ranges between 17.92 lower than 10 MPa. The estimated tensile strength is very
and 18.50 kN/m3, which agrees with the range of low (1–2 MPa). The basic friction angle ranges between 37
13–29 kN/m3 suggested by Rodrı́guez-Losada et al. (2009) and 42 , which is in agreement with the values (25–42 )
open cracks, broken faces, indented edges and faceted

corners (Yepes and Lomoschitz 2008, 2009, 2010). This
fact seems to be related to very strong sub-vertical jointing
and the low tensile strength of the lavas, which could con-
tribute to the effective fragmentation of the rock mass during
the avalanche movement. These geotechnical observations
confirm the hypothesis that the Arteara rock avalanche was
developed by means of a dry granular flow in which the
blocks of rock were transported by bouncing with a number
of impacts between them (Yepes and Lomoschitz 2008,
2009, 2010).
The geomechanical parameters of the five lithotypes
described in this paper could be very useful for future partic-
ular studies concerning the modelling of the most likely
mechanism of failure and run out of the Arteara rock ava-
Fig. 8 Detailed view of the pumice tuff with lithics. See Fig. 2 for site lanche, and also of other slope instabilities developed in the
location slopes of the Fataga ravine.
suggested by González de Vallejo et al. (2008). However, a

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(Canary Islands): age of shield building volcanism and other mag- Simposio Nacional sobre Taludes y Laderas Inestables, 27–30 Oct
matic phases. Bull Volcanol 40(1):57–77 2009. Barcelona, 13pp
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Read JRL, Thornten PN, Regan WM (1980) A rational approach to the ical research abstracts. EGU General Assembly 2010, Vienna,
point load test. In: Proceedings of 3rd Australian-New Zealand pp 12017–12018
Effects of Parameters in Landslide Simulation Model
LS-RAPID on the Dynamic Behaviour of Earthquake-
Induced Rapid Landslides
Bin He, Kyoji Sassa, Maja Ostric, Kaoru Takara, and Yosuke Yamashiki
Abstract
In this study, the effects of parameters in landslide simulation model (LS-RAPID) on the
dynamic behaviour of earthquake-induced rapid landslides were examined to demonstrate
the importance of each parameter. It was applied to a case study in Suruga Bay, Shizuoka
Prefecture in Japan. The topographic data of the slope surface and sliding surface was
generated from digital elevation model (DEM). Three different real seismic records were
used as the inputs of earthquake i.e. 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Inland Earthquake, 2009
Suruga Bay Earthquake, and the latest 2011 Tohoku Earthquake. Results show that
landslides can be triggered by strong seismic loading using 2011 Tohoku real seismic
records under a certain pore water pressure within LS-RAPID. The key parameters,
including shear resistance at the steady state with physical meaning were found to have
significant effect on the dynamic behaviour of these earthquake-induced rapid landslides.
Keywords
Earthquake-induced landslides Parameter Simulation model Dynamic behaviour
Introduction
Growing population and expansion of settlements and life-

lines over hillside areas have largely increased the numbers of
deaths, injuries, and economic losses due to landslides both in
industrialized and developing countries. Therefore, regional
prediction of landslide is urgent, especially in mountainous
B. He (*)
Educational Unit for Adaptation and Resilience for a Sustainable
areas, where variations in topography, geology, human
Society, Center for Promotion of Interdisciplinary Education and activities are quite large. However, the mechanism of land-
Research, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan slide is complex since it is related to many geo-environmental
Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University, factors such as geomorphology, lithology, land cover, and
Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan bedrock geology. Based on the nonlinear relationship
e-mail: [email protected] between landslides and the various factors causing landslides,
K. Sassa various qualitative and quantitative models have been
International Consortium on Landslides, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto postulated. The current available landslide simulation models
611-0011, Japan
are classified as two categories i.e. lumped mass models
M. Ostric idealizing the landslide motion as a single point (Perla et al.
Department of Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of
Engineering, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan
1980; Hutchinson 1986), and models based on continuum
mechanics (Sassa 1988; Wang and Sassa 2010).
K. Takara Y. Yamashiki
Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University,
Sassa (1988) proposed a geotechnical model for landslide
Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan motion based on the kinematic principle of block motion and

120 B. He et al.
the continuity principle of the behaviour of material X

Landslide mass
during landslide motion process. Due to the contribution of
Z
IPL-M101 APERITIF Project – Arial Prediction of Earth- Lateral Pressure
quake and Rain-Induced Rapid and Long Travelling Flow Pv Seismic Force ¶Px
Column element Px + Dx
Fx ¶x
Phenomena – by the Special Coordinating Fund for Promot- Fv Fy
x
ing Science and Technology of the Government of ¶Py

W Py + Dy
Japan (Representative: K. Sassa), the simulation program
Px ¶y
Self weight
was professionally improved. The program is written in C++ Pore U R

x y Pressure
language. Its interface is very similar to MS-Word and is N
y
Stable ground
user-friendly. It can be easily operated in a Windows system.
It was further improved in 2004 (Sassa et al. 2004a) and new Y
knowledge obtained from a dynamic loading ring shear
Fig. 1 Geotechnical model for landslide motion (left) and forces
apparatus (Sassa et al. 2003, 2004b). The new development
acting on a sliding mass column (right). The mesh size at x-y plane is
is to simulate the initiation process of landslide from the △x △y. The forces include gravity W, supporting force N, shear
local failure to the post-failure landslide motion through the resisting force R, and earth pressures Px and Py
progressive failure. So far, the initiation of landslides has
been analyzed by limit-equilibrium slope stability analysis
assuming that the whole sliding mass fails at once, while (2) lateral pressure acting on the side walls (P), (3) shear
existing landslide run-out models deal only with post-failure resistance acting on the bottom in the upward direction of
motion. This model is the first to integrate the initiation the maximum slope line (before motion) or in the opposite
process and the post-failure motion. The integrated simula- direction of landslide movement (during motion) (R), and
tion model LS-RAPID has been applied in many areas, (4) the normal stress acting on the bottom (N) given from
including subaerial and submarine megaslides, to assess the stable ground as a reaction of normal component of the
the initiation and motion of landslides triggered by self-weight (Wn). The sum of three forces of (1) (2) (3) will
earthquakes, rainfalls or the combined effects of rainfalls cause the motion of landslides, namely the component of
and earthquakes (Sassa et al. 2004a, 2011). the self-weight parallel to the slope (Wp), and the sum of
As the important input of this model, the mechanical the balance of lateral pressures in the directions of X and Y
parameters of the sliding zone and sliding mass have effect and Shear resistance (R). The landslide mass (m) will be
on the dynamic behaviour of landslides, especially accelerated by an acceleration (a) given by the sum of these
earthquake-induced rapid landslides. Most of the mechanical three forces.
parameters can be decided using ring shear test on samples.

This paper will investigate the effects of the mechanical @Px @Py
parameters in landslide simulation model LS-RAPID on am ¼ Wp þ Dx þ Dy þ R (1)
@x @x
the dynamic behaviour of earthquake-induced rapid
landslides. It will be presented by the inclusion of a Wp ¼ W þ Fv þ Fx þ Fy
parametric study, together with the presentation of a case
study of a submarine landslide in Suruga Bay. Different where, W: self weight, Fv, Fx, Fy: seismic force.
frequencies, periods, amplitudes of earthquake records The angle of slope is different in the position of column
were compared for a potential submarine landslide and within landslide mass. All stresses and displacements are
their responses in their respective simulations by LS- projected to the horizontal plane and calculated on the hori-
RAPID will be analyzed. zontal plane.
This simulation model can express the landslide initiation
by the combined effects of pore water pressure and seismic
Methodology shaking and post-failure motion until the deposition.
Landslides can be triggered by seismic loading either using
Landslide Simulation Model real seismic records or simple cyclic waves under a certain
pore water pressure (pore pressure ratio) within LS-RAPID.
Basic concept of the landslide simulation model is shown in The effect of seismic force is much affected by frequency of
Fig. 1 (Sassa et al. 2004a). A vertical imaginary column is shear wave and the wave form. It is quite different in the case
considered within a moving landslide mass. The forces of static, low frequency, high frequency and the magnitude
acting on the column are (1) self-weight of column (W), of peak acceleration.
Effects of Parameters in Landslide Simulation Model LS-RAPID on the Dynamic. . . 121
Setting of Seismic Loading case, the apparent friction angle inside mass (fia) is calcu-
lated to be 11.5 because sin fia ¼ 0.2.
In LS-RAPID, the seismic loading force can be set as an
inducement of the landslide. We can set a constant seismic
load or a fluctuating seismic load over time by choosing one Earthquake Records
of the following seismic operation methods i.e. Static,
Cyclic, and Seismic. In the Static method, the seismic coef- On 11 March 2011, the Tohoku Earthquake occurred off-
ficient varies linearly. In the Cyclic method, the seismic shore the Tohoku region of Japan. Some hundreds to a few
coefficient varies as a sine wave while the value of the thousands gal of acceleration were recorded at monitoring
amplitude changes linearly. In the Seismic method, the seis- stations in the Tohoku Region. The greatest earthquake
mic coefficient varies based on the actual seismic wave acceleration was recorded along the NS Component
form data. (2,699 gal) at station MYG004 in the Miyagi Prefecture.
The effect of seismic loading on landslide initiation
differs by frequency, length of period as well as the acceler-
Parameters ation of shaking. A great earthquake possibly triggered the
landslide in Senoumi was not the same with the Tohoku
As for the parameters necessary for the computer simulation, earthquake. However, we used the record at MYG004
most of soil parameters can be decided by the test on drilled (Fig. 2) for this computer simulation as the most practical
sample by undrained cyclic loading ring shear test, namely reference record in Japan. It has two main shocks resulting
the steady state shear resistance, the friction angle at peak, from two major ruptures in the subduction plane. A strong
and the friction angle during motion, the shear displacement and possibly long seismic shaking induced by the combined
at the start of strength reduction (DL), the shear displace- activation of Tokai (Suruga Bay area), Tonankai and Nankai
ment at the end of strength reduction (DU). Cohesion is segments of the Nankai megathrust are assumed to occur in
regarded to be small (10 kPa) assuming the shear surface Japan. In this case, two or three main shocks are possible to
was formed in a not over-consolidated sand layer like the occur and it may give a long and strong shaking which
drilled core. should have a great impact to trigger landslides.
Some parameters such as the lateral pressure ratio and As a comparison, the previous records of earthquakes in
parameters for non-frictional energy consumption are not Iwate-Miyagi (14 June, 2008) and Suruga Bay (11 Aug.,
decided by the ring shear tests. Those are decided from the 2009) were also input to LS-RAPID as seismic records.
following examinations. Lateral Pressure ratio (k ¼ sh/sv) The effects of parameters in landslide simulation model
is one of important factors. K value is expressed by the LS-RAPID on the dynamic behaviour of earthquake-induced
Jaky’s equation as the equation. rapid landslides will be analyzed for Suruga Bay (Fig. 3)
using these three actual earthquake records.
k ¼ 1 sin fia (2)
where, tan fia ¼ (c þ (s-u) tan fi)/s; tan fia : Apparent Results and Discussion
friction coefficient within the landslide mass; tan fi: Effec-
tive friction within the landslide mass, which is not always Model Application in Suruga Bay
the same as the effective friction during motion on the
sliding surface fm. In this study, we use the full mode simulation of LS-RAPID
In the liquefied state, s ¼ u, c ¼ 0, then, sin fia ¼ 0, model (Initiation + Motion + Expansion). The simulation
and k ¼ 1.0. In the rigid state, c is big enough, then sin fia is will reduce the friction coefficient and the cohesion from
close to 1.0, then k is close to 0. their peak values to the normal motion time values within
As for the sand layer in the Suruga Bay, it should have the source area in the determined distribution of the unstable
been almost fully saturated because it is a submarine slope. mass (reducing from “tanfp” to “tanfm” and from “Cp” to
Accordingly we used 0.99 as the pore pressure generation “Cm”). When the travel length becomes DL (mm), the
rate (Bss). A high pore pressure would have been generated reduction will be started. Once the travel length reaches
within the fully saturated sand layer during the motion of DU (mm), the reduction will be completed and then normal
landslides. In case of no pore pressure generation and the motion simulation will start. In this study, most of the
friction angle within the soil mass fi ¼ 30 , k ¼ 0.5. If the mechanical parameters, including DL, DU, tanfp, and
sand layer is completely liquefied and becomes a true liquid, tanfm, were decided by the test on drilled sample by
it will be 1.0. We used the in-between value of 0.8. In this undrained cyclic loading ring shear test (Sassa et al. 2011).
Firstly, we simulated the potential landslide initiation and
122 B. He et al.
EW (Kx) Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku, 14 June 2008 EW (Kx) Surugabay, 11 Aug. 2009 EW (Kx) Tohoku, 11 March. 2011
0.7 0.5 1.4
– 0.7 –0.5 – 1.4

NS (Ky) NS (Ky) NS (Ky)
0.8 0.3 2.8
– 0.8 –0.3 – 2.8

UD (Kv) UD (Kv) UD (Kv)
0.3 0.1 2.0
– 0.3 –0.1 – 2.0

0 T = 300 0 T = 172 0 T = 280
Fig. 2 Strong ground motion record of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake (IMNE), 2009 Suruga Bay Earthquake (SBE), 2011 Tohoku
Earthquake (TE) monitored at MYG 004. (X axis unit: second; Y axis Unit: 1,000 gal)
Fig. 3 Location of investigation

area in Suruga Bay and 3D
imagery of LS-RAPID simulation
area
motion by using three actual earthquake records. Then the the landslide motion in IMNE is larger than that in SBE
key parameters of LS-RAPID were evaluated to test their since IMNE acceleration is stronger than SBE.
effects on the dynamics of earthquake-induced rapid As for the Tohoku Earthquake (TE), the peak acceleration
landslides. was 2,699 gal. We simulated landslide motion by 0.1, 0.2,
0.3, 0.5, 0.7 and 1.0 times of monitored acceleration record
for Suruga Bay, respectively. Here, 30 s and 80 s is around
Simulation of Landslide Motion 10 s after the first main shock and the second main shock
respectively, when the effects of main shocks clearly
Firstly, the landslide initiation and motion was simulated by appeared. Results show that, two cases of 0.1 and 0.2 did
using 1.0 times acceleration of 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku not cause any motion in Senoumi area (Northern part of
Earthquake (IMNE), 2009 Suruga Bay Earthquake (SBE), Suruga Bay). But, 0.3 times of acceleration, namely 809
and 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (TE). As results, only TE can gal at peak triggered local failures in steep parts of slopes
trigger large landslide in Suruga Bay. Then, we tested stron- (Fig. 5). Thereafter, the local failures are spread to other
ger acceleration of IMNE and SBE, i.e. 2.0 and 4.0 times of areas in the progressive failure process due to strength
IMNE and SBE. As for TE, we tested for smaller seismic reduction at failed areas. It formed a landslide mass and
acceleration by using 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7 times of TE. Figure 4 transported the mass into the deep sea of Suruga Bay along
presents the motion of soil mass triggered by these scenarios which the mass moved downward to the Pacific Ocean. 0.5
earthquake accelerations. It shows that the landslide motions times of acceleration, can also trigger local failures in steep
trigged by 1.0 and 2.0 times SBE are all smaller than those parts of slopes, which is slightly bigger than that triggered by
triggered by IMNE, which has only landslide motion in the 0.3 times of acceleration. Moreover, 0.7 times of accelera-
northern part of simulation area and has no initiation of mass tion (1,889 gal at peak) triggered a landslide mass at the first
movement in the southern part of simulation area. When 4.0 main shock, and thereafter, the landslide mass moved. But
times acceleration of SBE and IMNE were used, the signifi- the landslide area was not expanded until termination. 1.0
cant landslide motion has occurred in both cases, however, times of acceleration of Tohoku Earthquake triggered the
Seismic 1.0 times 2.0 times 4.0 times

2009
SBE
2008
IMNE
0.3 times 0.5 times 0.7 times

2011
TE
Fig. 4 Simulation results of 1.0 times, 2.0 times and 4.0 times accel- critical velocity to change ball colour is set as 0.5 m/s which means the
eration of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake (IMNE) and stable mass will change to the moving mass if the mass’s velocity is
2009 Suruga Bay Earthquake (SBE); and the simulation results of 0.3 bigger than this velocity. The blue ball stands for the stable mass and
times, 0.5 times and 0.7 times acceleration of 2011 Tohoku Earthquake the moving mass is depicted from orange (small velocity) to brown (big
(TE). The cell of mass is depicted as a ball with different colour. The velocity)
Fig. 5 Simulation results of 1.0 1st main shock (30 s) 2nd main shock (80 s) Stop
times acceleration of the 2011
Tohoku Earthquake. 30 s and 80 s
is around 10 s after the first main
shock and the second main shock
respectively
124 B. He et al.
Fig. 6 Simulation results of 1.0 τss =30 τss =60 τss =120
times acceleration of the 2011
Tohoku Earthquake using
tss ¼ 30, tss ¼ 60 and tss ¼ 120,
respectively. Here, lateral
pressure ratio k ¼ 0.8, peak
friction coefficient angle at
sliding surface jp ¼ 36.9
same size of landslide at the first main shock with the case of three cases (tss ¼ 30, 60, and 120) the motion of landslide is
0.7 times. However, the second main shock triggered a great apparent.
landslide involving the whole Senoumi area. The moved
landslide mass gradually flowed out through the narrow Conclusion
exit and went down along the Suruga Trough. The termina- From the above simulation results, the conditions to cause
tion of simulated motion in the case of 0.3, 0.7, 1.0 was landslides by earthquake can be summarized as:
6,021 s, 5,959 s and 6,254 s respectively. Namely the 1. 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake can initiate the
simulated soil mass movement continued for around 1.7 h. motion of landslides in 1.0 times of earthquake wave.
The toe of landslide mass is out of this simulation area. However, 2009 Suruga Bay Earthquake cannot trigger
Thus, from the simulation results, 0.7 times and 1.0 times landslides in the same conditions.
TE records can trigger very big landslide motion in Suruga 2. 2009 Suruga Bay Earthquake can cause small landslides
Bay. As an example, Fig. 5 presents the simulated landslide in 2.0 times of earthquake wave, and large landslide in 4.0
motion of Senoumi soil mass in Suruga Bay which was times of earthquake wave.
potentially triggered by the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake. In 3. As for 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, it can cause large land-
addition, the crossing sections A-A0 and B-B0 after termina- slide in Suruga Bay in 1.0 times of earthquake wave.
tion of motion in the case of 1.0 times of acceleration of 4. The effect of tss on the motion of potential landslide is
2011 Tohoku earthquake demonstrated that the elevation of significant in Suruga Bay area.
the sea floor after the landslide is higher than the current sea Summarily, the simulation results in this study
floor. Further downward movement of sea floor was possibly visualized that it was possible for the Senoumi topogra-
caused by other than landslides, such as submarine erosion phy in Suruga Bay to be created by the strong ground
process by the water flow provided by the Oi river which has motion record of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake or another
formed the alluvial fun in the Senoumi area. similar or even greater earthquake which possibly
occurred in this area in the past.
Effect of Parameters on Landslide Dynamics Acknowledgments The ring shear apparatus was developed by the
International Programme on Landslides (IPL) and the Science and
Based on the above simulation, we changed the values of Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development
Programme (SATREPS) of Japan Science and Technology Agency
several key parameters of LS-RAPID. As an example, Fig. 6
(JST) and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). We are
shows the results of landslide motion by changing the values also grateful for the support by the Kyoto University GCOE program
of tss (steady state shear resistance at sliding surface) under “Sustainability/Survivability Science for a Resilient Society Adaptable
the condition of 1.0 times 2011 TE. When tss changed from to Extreme Weather Conditions” and JSPS Grant-in-Aid for Young
Scientists (B) (90569724).
30 (obtained from ring shear test) to 60, the large landslide
motion can occur but most of the mass still remains in the
Senoumi area and the mass transported to the sea floor is less
than that under the condition of tss ¼ 30. When tss ¼ 120, References
the mass in the Senoumi area is harder to move. The motion
of landslide is terminated very soon. The mass transported Hutchinson JN (1986) A sliding-consolidation model for flow slides.
from Senoumi to sea floor is small. Therefore, the effect of Can Geotech J 23(2):115–126
Perla R, Cheng TT, McCling DM (1980) A two-parameter model of
tss on the motion of landslide is significant. But, it has no snow avalanche motion. J Glaciol 26:197–207
significant effect on the initiation of landslide since in all the Sassa K (1988) Special lecture: the geotechnical model for the motion
of landslides. In: Proceedings of the 5th international symposium on
landslides, Lausanne, vol 1, pp 33–52
Sassa K, Wang G, Fukuoka H (2003) Performing undrained shear tests Sassa K, He B, Miyagi T, Ostric M, Baba T, Nagai O, Furumura T,
on saturated sands in a new intelligent type of ring-shear apparatus. Konagai K, Kaneda Y, Yamashiki Y (2011) A possible submarine
Geotech Test J 26(3):257–265 megaslide in Suruga bay in Japan – an interpretation of Senoumi
Sassa K, Wang G, Fukuoka H, Wang FW, Ochiai T, Sugiyama M, (Stony flower sea) bathymetric feature. Landslides (in submission)
Sekiguchi T (2004a) Landslide risk evaluation and hazard zoning Wang F, Sassa K (2010) Landslide simulation by a geotechnical model
for rapid and long-travel landslide in urban development areas. combined with a model for apparent friction change. Phys Chem
Landslides 1(3):221–235 Earth 35:149–161
Sassa K, Fukuoka H, Wang G, Ishikawa N (2004b) Undrained
dynamic-loading ring-shear apparatus and its application to land-
slide dynamics. Landslides 1(1):7–19
Different Methods to Produce Distributed Soil
Thickness Maps and Their Impact on the Reliability
of Shallow Landslide Modeling at Catchment Scale
Samuele Segoni, Gianluca Martelloni, and Filippo Catani
Abstract
In this paper we made a comparison between various methods to enter soil thickness as a
spatial variable in a deterministic basin scale slope stability simulator. We used a slope
stability model that couples a simplified solution of Richards infiltration equation and an
infinite slope model with soil suction effect. Soil thickness was entered in the stability
modelling using spatially variable maps obtained with four state-of-art methods: linear
correlation with elevation; linear correlation with slope gradient; exponential correlation
with slope gradient; a more complex geomorphologically indexed model (GIST model).
Soil thickness maps and the derivate Factor of Safety (FS) maps were validated. Results
confirmed that FS is very sensitive to soil thickness and showed that the same slope stability
model can be highly sensitive or highly specific depending on the input soil thickness data.
The uncertainty in the FS calculation can be reduced by applying more precise soil
thickness input data: mean error of soil thickness maps is closely related to the sensitivity
or specificity of the FS computation, while the overall performance of the stability simula-
tion depends on mean absolute error and skewness of the frequency distribution of the
errors of soil thickness maps. Despite the fact that slope-based methods are the most used in
literature to derive soil thickness, in our application they returned poor results. Conversely,
the use of the GIST model improved the performance of the stability model.
Keywords
Soil thickness Soil depth Shallow landslide Factor of safety Validation Sensitivity
Infinite slope
Introduction (Revellino et al. 2008), assigning a reference value for

each geological formation (Savage et al. 2004), or deriving
Soil thickness is considered as one of the most important a distributed soil thickness map from a single known topo-
factors controlling shallow landsliding (Johnson and Sitar graphic attribute such as the elevation (Saulnier et al. 1997)
1990; Wu and Sidle 1995; Van Asch et al. 1999). Notwith- or the slope gradient (De Rose 1996; Salciarini et al. 2006).
standing, to enter soil thickness in basin scale models, many More complex methods that make use of multivariate statis-
authors rely on straightforward and simplistic solutions such tical analyses (Gessler et al. 2000; Tesfa et al. 2009) or that
as: considering a spatially constant value (Khazai and Sitar employ process-based models (Casadei et al. 2003; Pelletier
2000; Savage et al. 2004), using soil thickness classes and Rasmussen 2009) are less frequently used as input data
in large scale slope stability analyses because they are very
site-specific and require some effort to be correctly applied
S. Segoni (*) G. Martelloni F. Catani and calibrated over large areas.
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università degli Studi di Firenze,
via La Pira 4, Florence 52021, Italy
In this paper a slope stability model was applied on a
e-mail: [email protected] pixel-by-pixel basis using four different distributed soil

128 S. Segoni et al.
thickness maps, each obtained using a distinct method. The

outcomes were compared in order to: (1) evaluate which soil
thickness model is more effective when used in conjunction
with basin scale slope stability models; (2) understand the
sensitivity of slope stability analysis to soil thickness; (3)
discuss if (and how) the errors in soil thickness mapping are
correlated with errors in slope stability assessment.
Material and Methods

Elevation (m.a.s.l.)
Test Site 1298
The test site is the Armea Creek basin (Fig. 1), a mountain 73
catchment located in the Western Alps (Liguria, Northern
Italy). The area is about 37 km2 and it is dominated by Fig. 1 Location and morphology of the Armea basin (Italy)
Cretaceous Flysch (limestone and sandstone) with a com-
plex structural setting characterised by faults, thrusts, a Soil Thickness Maps
tectonic window, recumbent folds and polyphase folds
(Sagri 1984; Menardi-Noguera 1988; Merizzi and Seno To feed in the slope stability model with respect to soil
1991). The steep slopes and the high energy of relief make thickness, we used four different soil thickness maps,
the area very prone to shallow landsliding. The Armea valley obtained with the following methods.
is mainly occupied by forests and small olive groves, and the – GIST model. The “geomorphologically indexed soil
population concentrates in the village of Ceriana. thickness” (GIST) is an empirical model that combines
morphometric attributes with geomorphological and geo-
logical factors (Segoni 2008; Catani et al. 2010; Segoni
Slope Stability Model and Catani under review). The model is based on three
factors (C, P and S), whose values range from 0 to 1, and
The model used in the analysis couples a hydrological model indicate a tendency to have a thicker soil. At every pixel,
(which calculates the spatial pressure head distribution as a the value assumed by each factor depends on the
function of time and depth, and which is based on a reduced local value of the corresponding morphometric attribute
form of Richards’ equation) with an infinite slope stability (curvature, for factor C; position along the hillslope
analysis in which suction effects in unsaturated soils are also profile, for factor P; slope gradient, for factor S),
taken into account (Segoni et al. 2011). The slope stability but the relationship linking the morphometric attribute
simulator used during this study is suitable for complex with the corresponding factor is not constant over
storms characterised by different and alternating the entire test area. Factor C values were basically
intensities in both space and time. The stability simulator is assumed inversely proportional to curvature values, except
implemented in a computer code designed to be applied where geomorphologic survey highlighted a direct
in operational forecasting systems in near real time proportionality (e.g. in footslopes characterised by accu-
(Mercogliano et al. 2010, 2011), but in this work it was used mulation of loose material); the relationship linking factor
for back analysis, simulating the ground effects of a historical P and hillslope position was calibrated according to the
rainfall event. As every other model based on infinite slope toposequences characterising the hillslopes; factor S
theory, it is designed to be applied to shallow landslides reduces soil thickness values when the local gradient
wherever soil coverage, compared to the underlying bedrock, exceeds a threshold which is differentiated on a
exhibits a marked change in hydraulic properties. lithological basis. The product of the three factors is then
The model works on a pixel by pixel basis: for every translated into a soil thickness measure by means of cali-
pixel, it calculates the factor of safety at increasing depths, bration functions defined using a few in situ soil thickness
allocating the lower FS value found. The computation is measurements. For further details on this model, see Catani
automatically repeated at different time steps. et al. (2010) and Segoni and Catani (under review).
Different Methods to Produce Distributed Soil Thickness Maps and Their Impact on the. . . 129
– Z model assumes that soil thickness values are inversely

proportional to the elevation, since in higher locations
erosion usually prevails over deposition, producing
shallower soils, whilst at lower elevations the predomi-
nance of deposition usually determines thicker colluvial
and alluvial soils. The soil thickness – elevation relation-
ship can be established according to a linear law derived
from a few calibration measures (Saulnier et al. 1997).
– S model assumes that soil thickness values are inversely
proportional to the slope gradient, since on steeper slopes
more intense erosive processes produce shallower soils,
whilst thicker colluvial and alluvial soils can be usually
found on flat surfaces where erosion is less intense. The
slope gradient – soil thickness relationship can be
established according to a linear law derived from a few
calibration measures (Saulnier et al. 1997; Blesius and Fig. 2 Soil thickness maps
Weirich 2009).
– Sexp model. This model is a more advanced version of with relevant magnitude occurred (Segoni et al. 2009).
the previous one: the slope gradient – soil thickness Despite that, the event had a relevant destructive impact on
relationship is established by an exponential law (thus properties, roads, assets and population (Segoni et al. 2009).
soil thickness is assumed to decrease more rapidly with The evolution of the slope stability was computed
increasing slope gradient values). A similar approach has through 24 hourly time steps making use of distributed
been used in shallow landslide assessments by De Rose radar rainfall maps downscaled to a 1.75 km spatial resolu-
(1996), Salciarini et al. (2006) and Godt et al. (2008). tion (Segoni et al. 2009).
These four methods were applied to the test site on a
pixel-by-pixel basis by means of a GIS system and four
very different soil thickness maps were obtained (Fig. 2). Results
Slope- and elevation-dependent soil thickness maps
exhibit a spatial variability identical to that of the attribute Factor of Safety (FS) Maps
used for its derivation. Despite that, the two gradient-based
models returned very different results as the exponential The stability model was applied four times (using the men-
relationships (Sexp model) depicted shallower soils than tioned four soil thickness maps) on a pixel-by-pixel basis at
the linear one (S model). The GIST model-derived soil hourly time steps; for each of them, a FS map was produced
thickness pattern, in turn, is evidently influenced by the with a 5 m spatial resolution.
relative position along the hillslope profile. For each simulation, a summarising FS map of the event
was produced assigning to every pixel the lowest FS value
assumed during the analysed period (Fig. 3). Pixels with FS
Other Input Data and Slope Stability Simulation values higher and lower than 1 (limit equilibrium) were
interpreted as stable and unstable (respectively).
We performed four stability simulations, holding all the When Z and S models were used as input, a generalised
input parameters constant excepted soil thickness, which instability affected the studied area. On the other hand, the
was entered using the four aforementioned maps. Sexp model depicted a diametrically opposite scenario, in
The values of the geotechnical and hydraulic parameters which the Armea basin was considered stable almost every-
were differentiated for each geological formation encoun- where. With the GIST model, an intermediate result was
tered in the study area (Table 1) and were obtained from obtained between these two very extreme conditions.
previous works on the same test site (Segoni et al. 2009).
Slope gradient was derived from a 5 m grid DEM.
The rainfall event considered in the simulation is related Validation of FS Maps
to the 8th of December 2006, when intense precipitations
triggered 141 shallow landslides (mainly debris flows and A validation was carried out comparing the summarising
soil slips). Their sliding area was generally very small (one maps with an inventory of the triggered landslides (Segoni
half were smaller than 100 m2) and only a few phenomena et al. 2009).
Table 1 Geotechnical and hydraulic parameters

Geological formation C (KPa) F ( ) g (N/m3) K (m/s)
Colluvial and eluvial deposits 4 28 20 1*10 3
Alluvial deposits 3 27 20 2*10 3
Ventimiglia Flysch (massive sandstones) 5 27 24 2*10 4
Ventimiglia Flysch (pelites and sandtones) 12 18 23 3*10 6
Sanremo Flysch (marlstones and mudstones) 11 21 24 3*10 5
Sanremo Flysch (mudstones and marlstones) 10 22 24 2*10 5
Bordighera sandstone (distal facies) 7 29 24 8*10 4
Table 2 Validation statistics of the four FS maps, as defined by

Begueria 2006 (likelihood ratio, sensitivity, specificity, efficiency,
misclassification rate, positive predictive power, negative predictive
power)
GIST Sexp S Z
Likel. ratio 4.50 1.99 2.20 2.09
Sensitivity 0.40 0.05 0.87 0.81
Specificity 0.91 0.97 0.60 0.61
Efficiency 0.91 0.97 0.61 0.61
Misclass. rate 0.09 0.03 0.39 0.39
Pos. pred. pow. 0.0085 0.0038 0.0042 0.0040
Neg. pred. pow. 0.0013 0.0019 0.0004 0.0006
large bias of the statistical sample (unstable areas represent

only a very small portion of the whole test area) (Begueria
2006).
Fig. 3 Summarising factor of safety maps. Differences depends solely Validation of Soil Thickness Maps
on the soil thickness map used as input parameter
The four soil thickness maps were validated using a number
To quantify correct predictions and errors committed by of soil thickness measures which ranges from 91 to 154,
each simulation, for every simulation we determined true depending on the number of measures required for the cali-
positives (TP; area of the correctly predicted landslides); bration of each model (Table 3 and Fig. 4).
true negatives (TN; total area of stable pixels located outside The Z and S models had the worst performance, with high
landslide polygons); false positives (FP; total area of unsta- mean absolute error, high frequency of large residuals and a
ble pixels located outside landslide polygons); and false pronounced tendency to overestimate soil thickness. The
negatives (FN; area of the unpredicted landslides). These Sexp model returned quite good results (45 cm mean abso-
statistics were combined to derive quantitative indexes lute error), but the frequency distribution of the residuals
assessing the effectiveness of the four simulations (Table 2). showed a proneness to underestimation. The soil thickness
In general, the use of the S and Z model led to overesti- map obtained with the GIST model was more reliable than
mate instability: a high percentage of landslides was the others: mean absolute error was lower (23 cm), very
correctly identified with the drawback of producing also large residuals were less frequent and no marked tendency
many false alarms (high sensitivity and low specificity). to overestimation or underestimation was revealed by the
Conversely, using the Sexp model the area was considered frequency distribution of the residuals.
stable almost everywhere: in this case, even if the false
alarms were less frequent, only a few landslides were
correctly predicted (low sensitivity and high specificity).
When the GIST model was taken into account, the derivate Discussion and Conclusions
FS map was more balanced between those two extremes,
producing the highest likelihood ratio. Likelihood ratio can Validation results confirmed that that slope stability models
be considered as the best statistics to summarise the based on the infinite slope theory are very sensitive to soil
behaviour of the models since it is less influenced by the thickness (Johnson and Sitar 1990; Wu and Sidle 1995; Van
Table 3 Validation statistics of the four soil thickness maps. Values are expressed in meters
Z-model S-model Sexp-model GIST model
Maximum underestimation 1.18 1.16 2.04 1.30
Maximum overestimation 1.61 2.01 1.70 1.91
Mean absolute error 0.68 1.03 0.45 0.33
Mean error 0.57 0.97 0.18 0.01
Standard deviation 0.48 0.56 0.57 0.48
Skewness 0.18 1.05 0.27 0.94
Kurtosis 0.77 2.29 2.3 3.20
coefficient of 1 ( 1) means that the two variables are per-

fectly directly (inversely) correlated, while if the correlation
coefficient approaches zero, the relationship between the
two variables is less robust and other factors influence it.
As can be seen from Table 4, mean error of the input soil
thickness map is highly related to most of the validation
statistics quantifying the accuracy of FS maps (only likeli-
hood ratio and positive predictive power show a low corre-
lation coefficient). It could be inferred that, in general, the
higher the mean error in the input soil thickness data, the
Fig. 4 Frequency distribution of the errors committed by the four soil higher the sensitivity of the FS model (i.e. the capability of
thickness models applied in the Armea basin predicting landslides) and, at the same time, the lower the
specificity of the FS model (i.e. the capability of predicting
Asch et al. 1999; Segoni et al. 2009): the choice of the model stable areas). Therefore, although highly related to the per-
to be used to obtain a distributed soil thickness map greatly formance of the stability model, mean error cannot be
influences the derived FS maps and, in general, a more directly used to assess the overall performance of the stabil-
reliable soil thickness map, combined with infinite slope ity model.
based models, improves spatial distribution of FS values at Compared to absolute error, the mean absolute error has a
basin scale. Therefore, in process-based approaches the correlation coefficient which is higher with the likelihood
uncertainty in slope stability assessments can be reduced ratio, but lower with almost all the other FS validation
by applying more accurate input data (i.e. soil thickness). indexes.
Furthermore, results pointed out that the same stability Skewness is the only parameter that shows a moderate
model can be more sensitive or more specific depending on correlation with all the FS validation indexes. In particular,
quality of input data. When a soil thickness model which likelihood ratio is the index most commonly associated to
generally overestimate soil thickness (e.g. S and Z the overall performance of a model (as it combines both
models) was used to feed the slope stability simulator, highly sensitivity and specificity), and it results mostly correlated
sensitive and lowly specific results were obtained (many true with the skewness (and, to a lesser extent, to mean absolute
positives but also many false positives). Conversely, the use error).
of a soil thickness model which generally underestimated soil Standard deviation and kurtosis of the soil thickness
thickness (e.g. Sexp model) led to low sensitive but high errors are scarcely related to any index used to measure FS
specific results (few false positives but many false negatives). maps reliability. The errors characterized by extreme values
This outcome also put in the right perspective the belief (max overestimation and max underestimation of soil thick-
that infinite slope-based approaches overestimate instability ness) exhibit the lowest correlation coefficients, highlighting
related to shallow landsliding: our simulations show that an that the overall performance of the stability model is
important contribution to overestimation can be provided by scarcely influenced by the extreme values of the errors in
the errors made by feeding the slope stability model with soil thickness maps as long as overestimations compensate
inaccurate soil thickness maps. underestimations.
In order to quantify how much FS validation statistics can To sum up, the overall performance of the slope stability
be influenced by soil thickness uncertainties, we calculated model resulted correlated to the absolute mean and the
the correlation coefficient between each validation statistic skewness of the errors committed in considering the input
of the FS maps (Table 2) and each validation statistic of the soil thickness map, but this correlation cannot be considered
soil thickness maps (Table 3). Resulting linear correlation strong. Mean error is more strictly related to the reliability of
coefficients are summarized in Table 4. A correlation the slope stability modelling (measured in terms of
Table 4 Linear correlation coefficients between the validation statistics of FS and soil thickness maps (for abbreviations please refer to Tables 2
and 3)
Max und. Max ov. Mean abs err Mean error St. dev. Skew Kur
Likel. ratio 0.25 0.42 0.58 0.37 0.58 0.71 0.56
Sensitivity 0.91 0.24 0.78 0.94 0.29 0.69 0.49
Specificity 0.78 0.09 0.85 0.96 0.15 0.80 0.62
Efficiency 0.78 0.09 0.85 0.96 0.14 0.80 0.62
Misclass. rate 0.78 0.09 0.85 0.96 0.14 0.80 0.62
Pos. pred. power 0.25 0.42 0.58 0.37 0.58 0.71 0.56
Neg. pred. power 0.91 0.29 0.80 0.95 0.25 0.71 0.45
sensitivity and specificity), as it better takes into account the requirements for susceptibility and hazard assessments in a GIS
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Water Resour Res 45:W10438. doi:10.1029/2008WR007474
Simulating Infiltration Processes into Fractured
and Swelling Soils as Triggering Factors of
Landslides
Annalisa Galeandro, Jirka Šimůnek, and Vincenzo Simeone
Abstract
The influence of rainfall in triggering landslides is a widely discussed topic in scientific
literature. The slope stability of fractured surface soils is often influenced by the soil
suction. Rainfall, infiltrating into soil fractures, causes the decrease in soil suction and
shear strength, which can trigger the collapse of surface soil horizons. Water flow through
fractured soils can also be affected by soil swelling and by capillary barrier effects in the
case of low permeable soil overlying a more permeable one.
These conditions are rarely investigated by the existing models, especially from the
point of view of rainfall triggering surface landslides. For this purpose, we have developed
a dual-porosity model that simulates water flow through fractured swelling soils overlying a
more permeable soil. The model has been applied to a soil profile consisting of a thin layer
of fractured loamy soil above a coarse sand layer, in order to investigate the influence of
different rainfall intensities on the infiltration process, and on the distribution of the pore
pressure that affects slope stability.
Keywords
Infiltration Rainfall threshold Shallow landslides
Introduction reliable physical slope model to be used to evaluate the

thresholds, especially for stratigraphically complex situations.
Rainfall-induced landslides are an important topic in There is empirical evidence that a long low-intensity
the scientific literature. There is mainly an interest in rainfall can sometimes be more dangerous than a short and
evaluating the rainfall threshold that triggers the slope fail- intense one (Cotecchia and Simeone 1996), and that the
ure (e.g. Frattini et al. 2009; Guzzetti et al. 2008; Picarelli singularity of an event is sometimes more relevant than its
et al. 2009; Pagano et al. 2010; Doglioni et al. 2011). The exceptionality. It is therefore important to analyse infiltra-
complexity of hydrologic and mechanic processes involved tion processes in detail, in order to better understand how
in rainfall-triggered landslides makes it difficult to develop a rainfall events can affect the pore pressure in the soil and
how they can trigger a landslide.
In particular, the stability of the surface unsaturated soil
layer along a slope is often related to the soil suction. In
A. Galeandro (*) V. Simeone unsaturated soils, rainfall infiltration induces significant
Engineering Faculty of Taranto, Technical University of Bari, changes in the pressure head distribution, causing a decrease
viale del Turismo 8, Taranto, Italy in suction and shear strength, eventually triggering slope
instability.
J. Šimůnek The presence of fractures in the topsoil accelerates infil-
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California
Riverside, Riverside, CA 92521, USA
tration and influences pore pressure variations, depending on
rainfall intensity and soil properties (Beven and Germann

136 A. Galeandro et al.
1982; Jarvis et al. 1991). Additionally, soil swelling can distribution can be strongly affected by rainfall intensity,
cause a progressive closure of cracks and can also significantly swelling phenomena and the presence of the underlying
influence water flow (Vogel et al. 2005). The mechanisms capillary barrier, subsequently affecting the overall slope
acting in surface fine-grained unsaturated soils overlying stability.
more permeable material could also be significantly affected
by capillary barrier phenomena (Mancarella and Simeone
2007; Mancarella et al. 2012; Mancarella and Simeone
The Model
2012). Combined effects of cracks, swelling, and capillary
barriers can thus seriously influence the pressure head distri-
The model simulates water flow in swelling fractured soils,
bution, and therefore slope stability of unsaturated soils.
which are considered to be dual-porosity systems. In the
Existing models commonly do not consider all these
model. fractures represent the macroporous domain, and
conditions. A reliable study of rainfall-induced landslides
the soil matrix between them the microporous domain. The
and infiltration by means of empirical or theoretical models
rainfall intensity is assumed to be constant. The soil is
should not ignore such relevant processes, which affect the
considered to consist of a homogeneous porous medium
soil behaviour under unsaturated conditions and the pressure
with vertical fractures (Fig. 1), which become progressively
head distribution. A study of the infiltration mechanisms
narrower during the infiltration process as a result of
which considered all these conditioning factors could be
swelling of the matrix (Fig. 1a).
useful for better understanding the influence of rainfall in
The model assumes that there is no vertical flow in the
triggering landslides and for reliably defining hydrological
matrix and that all rainfall infiltrates into the fractures. Water
risks.
flows into the cracks; then, it can laterally infiltrate by
During the last few decades various empirical hydrologi-
diffusion into the matrix through the fracture-matrix inter-
cal models have been proposed (Caine 1980; Brunetti et al.
face (Fig. 1).
2009; and others; see a recent review by Guzzetti et al. 2008)
The unsaturated soil hydraulic properties are described by
that relate precipitation and landslides using empirical
using the van Genuchten (1980) and Mualem (1976)
relationships. Commonly, these models do not take into
relationships. Water transfer through the fractures-matrix
account a number of physical phenomena affecting soils
interface is modelled by the mass balance equation, which
(Picarelli and Vinale 2007). In particular, they do not con-
assumes that the matrix-fracture interactions are propor-
sider how hydrologic processes affect location, timing, and
tional to the pressure head gradient between the fractures
rates of landslides, and how land use and climate can influ-
and the matrix (Gerke and van Genuchten 1993). Water flow
ence slope stability (Iverson 2000).
in the matrix is described by the Richards equation
Recently, several theoretical models evaluating landslide
for horizontal flow and the flow rate (cm3/s) in the fractures
phenomena (Tsai and Yang 2006; Pagano et al. 2010; and
is obtained as the difference between the fracture inflow
others) have been developed, based on topographic, geo-
rate and the amount of water laterally adsorbed by the
logic, and hydrologic variables, and on changes in land
matrix (Fig. 1).
use. In addition, there is also a large number of models,
Matrix swelling is evaluated by a linear relationship
such as the HYDRUS codes (Šimůnek et al. 2008), which
between the matrix volumetric water content and the soil
simulate infiltration processes.
volume (Novak et al. 2002), assuming that the maximum
In this paper we propose a dual-porosity model (Šimůnek
swelling at full saturation is 2 % of the initial volume.
et al. 2003), in which fractures become progressively
The coarse soil underlying the fractured fine-textured
narrower during infiltration due to the increase in water
surface soil layer acts as a capillary barrier. Water
content in the swelling matrix. The presence of a coarse
accumulates in cracks and at the interface between the two
grained soil underlying the fine fractured layer, which
soil layers up to a maximum capillary height (Fig. 1b). In the
creates a capillary barrier effect at the contact between the
matrix, water is stored until the pressure head at the interface
two types of soils (Galeandro and Simeone 2010) is also
between the layers reaches a critical value, assumed to be the
considered.
water-entry pressure head of the lower coarse layer
The model is applied to a soil profile consisting of a
(Shackelford et al. 1994; Stormont and Anderson 1999).
fractured loamy soil overlying a coarse sand layer. Results
The parameters needed to parameterize the model are:
show how the infiltration process and the water content
– Rainfall intensity i and its duration T;
Simulating Infiltration Processes into Fractured and Swelling Soils as Triggering. . . 137
Fig. 1 Schematic representation

of a soil system and a flow model
Table 1 Parameters describing the fractures 0.01 m. Parameters describing the fracture network are
summarized in Table 1. Soil hydraulic parameters of the
Fractures
Saturated hydraulic conductivity Kfs (m/s) 1.00 103
soil matrix (the upper soil layer) are summarized in Table 2.
Spacing a (m) 0.50 The initial water content of the upper soil layer has been
Opening d (m) 0.01 assumed to be 0.1 (m3 m3); i.e., close to the residual water
Thickness (m) 2 content. A water-entry pressure head at the interface
between the two layers has been assumed to be equal to
200 mm (Stormont and Morris 1998).
– Geometry of the fracture system (depth s, opening d, and
The model has been used to simulate two rainfall events
fracture spacing a);
with intensities of 2 and 20 mm/h (Table 3) and durations of
– Hydraulic properties and material status characteristics
10 and 1 h (denoted below as events A and B), respectively,
(saturated hydraulic conductivity of fractures Kfs; matrix
i.e., with the same amount of rainfall per event of 20 mm. A
initial water content yinit, residual water content yres,
time step equal to 10 s has been used.
saturated water content ysat, saturated hydraulic conduc-
tivity Kms, and van Genuchten parameters a and n; maxi-
mum swelling percentage, and parameters relating
Simulations Results and Discussion
swelling to water content).
In order to solve the flow equations, the system needs to
The behaviour of the system has been analysed in terms of
be spatially discretized into elements of small dimensions in
water content and pressure head distributions, crack closure
the x-z plane: the third dimension (in the direction of
dynamics, and the capillary barrier breakthrough process
fractures) is assumed to be equal to 1 cm. The calculations
during the two events (Figs. 2, 3, and 4). Results allow us
are repeated at regular intervals.
to make several observations with regards to the simulated
evolution of water contents in the soil.
Application of the Model: Results Water Content and Pressure Head Distribution
and Observations Dynamics
The presence of fractures in soils and the water flow through
The Case Study them produce water content and pressure head dynamics,
along with corresponding shear strengths, in response to the
The model has been applied to a soil system involving a rainfall intensity that is different than in homogeneous soils.
loamy fractured soil layer overlying a coarse sand. The fine- Fractures significantly accelerate water flow and affect the
textured soil has been assumed to be 2 m thick, with a dynamics of the water content distribution. The storage of
fracture interspacing of 0.5 m and a fracture opening of water in the fractures and the matrix depends on the rainfall
Table 2 Soil hydraulic parameters for the soil matrix (Data from Table 3 Parameters of two rainfall events and inflow rates into
Carsel and Parrish 1988) fractures
Upper layer (loamy soil) Rainfall Rainfall intensity Duration Inflow rate in
Saturated hydraulic conductivity Kms (m/s) 2.89 106 event (mm/h) (h) fracture (cm3/s)
Saturated water content ysat (m3m3) 0.43 A 2 10 0.0014
Residual water content yres (m3m3) 0.078 B 20 1 0.0139
a (van Genuchten 1980) (m1) 3.6
n (van Genuchten 1980) 1.56
l (Mualem 1976) 0.5
Fig. 2 Water content and pressure head distributions at the end of the rainfall (event A: 2 mm/h, 10 h)
Fig. 3 Water content and pressure head distributions at the end of the rainfall (event B: 20 mm/h, 1 h)
duration, crack opening, and functioning of the capillary fracture interface. Later, flow into the matrix depends on the
barrier. flow in the fractures, on the rainfall intensity, and on the
Initially, lateral adsorption of water into the soil matrix swelling process, which could close fractures and interrupt
involves only a few centimetres of the soil near the matrix- flow in both domains.
Fig. 4 Crack closure dynamics
During low intensity rains (i.e., 2 mm/h, event A), water Cracks Closure Dynamics
flows slowly into the fractures. Infiltrated water needs sev- The process of crack closing starts at the soil surface and
eral hours to reach the maximum depth of the fractures, then propagates downwards toward the bottom of the surface
enabling the storage of water in the fractures and lateral soil layer. Simulation results show how crack closing is
inflow into the matrix. At the end of rainfall event A, there controlled by the rainfall intensity and duration. Crack clos-
is significant absorption into the soil matrix involving the ing is quite irregular for low-intensity rains (event A,
entire upper soil layer, where the soil suction becomes zero Fig. 4a). Horizontal water absorption is quite significant in
(Fig. 2). the topsoil, inducing substantial swelling and causing the
For shorter and more intense precipitations (i.e., closure of surface cracks after several hours. Deeper parts of
20 mm/h, event B), water flows fast through fractures, the loamy soil are not reached by infiltrating water and the
reaching the bottom of the surface layer quite quickly (in cracks opening at the bottom of the surface soil layer
about 20 min) and continuing to flow downwards. At the end remains equal to the initial value (1 cm). Closed cracks
of event B, horizontal water absorption involves only a thin hold infiltrating water and prevent it from moving down-
portion of the upper soil (only about 5 cm) close to the ward, producing pressure heads in the soil matrix near the
fracture surface (Fig. 3). surface, close to saturation (Fig. 2). For high-intensity
According to the performed simulations, different water precipitations (event B), the swelling process is quite
absorption into the matrix seems to depend on rainfall inten- uniform along the entire depth of the fractures. Also the
sity and on the interactions between water in the closure of the fracture is almost uniform and much less
fractures and the matrix. Different rainfall intensities pro- significant (about 1 mm) (Fig. 4b).
duced different water content distributions at the end of the
simulated rainfall events. Water tends to be more uniformly
distributed in the soil matrix for slow-intensity and longer Capillary Barrier
events than for shorter and high-intensity precipitation. The
average water content in the first 80 cm of the upper soil There is no capillary barrier breakthrough for event A either
layer is close to saturation (0.428 m3 m3) for the low- in the matrix or the fracture because of the crack closures
intensity rainfall, while for the high-intensity precipitation after about 7 h. Water cannot reach the coarse layer and
the average water content is only about 0.136 m3 m3, with break through the capillary barrier. The pressure head
the maximum value of about 0.30 m3 m3. regime does not change at the interface between the two
Accordingly, water content distributions, and correspo- layers and the eventual stability failure could involve only
nding pressure head distributions, resulted more critical for the upper fine-textured layer.
triggering surface landslide for low-intensity rains than for The breakthrough of the capillary barrier below the frac-
high-intensity precipitations. ture is quite a fast process in the case of event B when rain
water can quickly flow down towards groundwater. The induced landslides in Italy. In: Picarelli L, Tommasi P, Urciuoli G,
breakthrough occurs already after 2 min (corresponding to Versace P (eds) Proceedings of 1st Italian workshop on landslides,
rainfall-induced landslides: mechanisms, monitoring techniques
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Conclusion Cotecchia V, Simeone V (1996) Studio dell’incidenza degli eventi di
A new dual-porosity model is proposed, which simulates pioggia sulla grande frana di Ancona del 13.12.82. – Convegno
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in significant variations in the pressure head distribution Water Resour Res 29:1225–1238
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Long-duration, low-intensity rain could thus potentially Iverson RM (2000) Landslide triggering by rain infiltration. Water
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Dimensionless Numerical Approach to Perched
Waters in 2D Gradually Layered Soils
Stefano Barontini, Marco Peli, Thom A. Bogaard, and Roberto Ranzi
Abstract
Aiming at better understanding the processes involved in perched water tables onset and in
their development, the case of a soil slope characterised by gradually decreasing hydraulic
conductivity at saturation with depth was numerically investigated. Different anisotropy
factors and steepness values were accounted for. The problem was led to a dimensionless
form on the basis of the Buckingham p-theorem. Coherently with a theoretical solution of
the 2D sloping case, the simulations evidenced (a) non-monotonic transverse profiles of the
pressure head within the perched water, (b) slightly lower infiltration thresholds for perched
water onset and for soil waterlogging, with respect to the 1D case. If the slope is long
enough, an almost uniform flux can be observed in a branch of its central part.
Keywords
Perched water table Soil slope stability 2D modelling
Introduction saturation on the soil-water dynamics. As a consequence of

the genetic layering, in fact, the conductivity at saturation
The formation of perched water tables in the upper soil tends to decrease across the upper soil horizons, being higher
layers, during an infiltration process at low infiltration rate, in the A horizons, rich in macropores, and – due to
is an important shallow-landslide triggering mechanism. In intrasolum leakage – lower in the B ones (Kirkby 1969).
fact, when the soil approaches the saturation of the upper On mountains, where strong erosive processes act and the
layers, the apparent cohesion reduces and, when the satura- mass movement is a key soil forming factor, the soil
tion is reached, also the effective strengths reduce. Soil horizonation cannot fully develop and a smooth decrease
failures can therefore be triggered not only by a positive of the conductivity at saturation typically occurs in the
pore pressure, but also by the presence of soil layers close to upper soil layers. Two limit cases can then describe the
saturated conditions (e.g. van Asch et al. 2009). An accurate soil characteristics below the upper soil layers: one can
description of the subsurface soil-water dynamics, also find either an impervious bedrock, or a highly permeable
accounting for the effect of the unhomogeneities of the soil layer of regolith or fractured and fissured rock. During our
hydraulic properties, can therefore lead to important infor- field measurement campaigns in two Alpine catchments, a
mation on soil safety. In this paper we will focus on the gradual decrease, on average, was observed for the vertical
effect of the layering of the hydraulic conductivity at conductivity at saturation through the upper soil layers
(Barontini et al. 2005). Consistent with literature data (e.g.
Beven 1984), the pattern was found to be reasonably
approximated by an exponential decay. By means of an
S. Barontini (*) M. Peli R. Ranzi
DICATAUniversity of Brescia, Via Branze 43, Brescia, Italy
analytical solution of the 1D Richards equation in a layered
e-mail: [email protected] soil, Barontini et al. (2007) proved that, during an imbibition
T.A. Bogaard
at constant water content at the soil surface, a gradual
CiTG, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands decrease of the hydraulic conductivity can lead to

144 S. Barontini et al.
non-monotonic profiles of water content. The profiles show a being x* the vertical coordinate positive downward, a
peak which onsets at the soil surface. It is then enveloped as perched water table can onset also due to internal causes
the position of the maximum moves downward and its mag- to the soil layer. Let us consider, in fact, a soil layer with
nitude increases. Therefore, after some time since the begin- finite thickness xf* characterized by monotonically decreas-
ning of the imbibition, a subsurface layer is characterized by ing Ks(x*):
a closer to saturation water content than the surface one. As
the soil saturation is reached at one point, there a perched Ks ðx Þ ¼ Ks;o f ðx Þ; (1)
water table is expected to onset.
With the aim of better understanding these phenomena in which Ks,o is the conductivity at saturation at the soil
the case of infiltration at constant rate in a 2D sloping soil surface x* ¼ 0 and f(x*) is a monotonically decreasing
layer of finite thickness, with exponentially decreasing function such that f(0) ¼ 1. Let us assume besides that the
hydraulic conductivity at saturation with depth, was numeri- underlying soil layer is characterized by higher conductivity
cally investigated by means of Hydrus-2D/3D (Simunek Ks,2 > Ks(xf*) and it is not able to exercise any retention.
et al. 1999) and the results are here presented. In order to For the sake of continuity of the total hydraulic head F ¼
extend the validity of the analyses to different soils and to x*, the tensiometer-pressure potential of the soil at xf*
guide further investigations, the problem was led to a dimen- should be null. We recall that the tensiometer-pressure
sionless form based on an application of the Buckingham potential is defined as ¼ c, i.e. the matric potential, if it
p-theorem and the results were compared with theoretical is non-positive, while ¼ h, i.e. the pressure potential, if it
ones for the 1D (Barontini and Ranzi 2010) and 2D case is positive. A perched water table onsets if at xf*, being
(Barontini et al. 2011). Since a description of the pressure ¼ 0, the gradient of is negative, i.e.:
field in case of a perched water table formation is provided,

the obtained results can contribute to better define the hydro- d
<0: (2)
logical loads of hillslope stability analyses, particularly in dx x
f
the framework of the undefined-length slope. After a theo-
retical recall, the adopted dimensionless approach is
The infiltration threshold if above which a perched water
presented. Then the set up of the numerical simulations
table onsets in the upper layer is given by:
and the results are introduced and discussed.

if ¼ Ks xf ; (3)
Theory
i.e. the value of Ks(xf*) is the upper boundary for the infiltra-
Perched Water Tables Formation and Properties tion rate in order not to onset a perched water table. At if, in
fact, the downward flux in xf*, expressed by the Darcy law, is
In a classical work, Zaslavsky (1964) stated that, in case of a sustained by a purely gravitational gradient. With the same
horizontal pervious soil with conductivity Ks,1 laying on an hypotheses the infiltration rate i* leading the soil layer to
impervious one with conductivity Ks,2 < Ks,1, the condition waterlogging is given by the value of the equivalent hydrau-
for a perched water table to onset in the upper layer is that lic conductivity at saturation over the interval [0, xf], i.e.:
the Darcian flux downward q, due to infiltration from the soil
surface, is q > Ks,2. When a steady condition is reached in ½0;x xf
i ¼ Ks;eq f Ks;o R x : (4)
this case, the flux in the upper soil layer takes place in the f dx0
0 f ð x0 Þ
direction of the increasing tensiometer-pressure potential,
whose maximum is reached at the bottom of the saturated
layer, at the interface with the impervious horizon. In a As the perched water table is bounded by two surfaces at
sharply layered soil, therefore, a perched water will onset ¼ 0, it is also characterized by a maximum of inside, in
within a layer (the layer 1 in the example) due to external the position x*max such that:
causes, viz the conductivity reduction at the interface
between the layer 1 and the underlying layer 2. i ¼ Ks xmax ; if <ibi : (5)
Barontini and Ranzi (2010) recently showed that in a
horizontal and gradually layered soil, with decreasing The corresponding max ¼ hmax is directly given by an
hydraulic conductivity at saturation with depth Ks(x*), integration of the Darcy law within the saturated layer:
Dimensionless Numerical Approach to Perched Waters in 2D Gradually Layered Soils 145
the slope increases. Therefore, the maximum infiltration,

which can be sustained without gaining any negative pres-
sure gradient at the lower soil interface, will be reduced
accordingly. In the case of the soil of Fig. 1, one can also
get the infiltration rate leading to waterlogging by means of
the following equation:
½0;x
i ðbÞ ¼ Ks;eq f cosðbÞ; (10)
which substitutes (4). The authors proved also that the posi-
Fig. 1 Sketch of the investigated soil domain with details on the
boundary conditions tion x*max, of the maximum pressure head within the
perched water table, given by (5) does not depend, at fixed
ð xf i
thickness of the perched water table, on the soil slope b . The
hmax ¼ xf xmax þ dx0 : (6) value of the maximum h at waterlogging is given, from
xmax Kx ðx0 Þ
(6), by:
Let us consider now a finite thickness soil layer laying on hmax ðbÞ ¼ hmax cos b: (11)
a hillslope, tilted of an angle b with the horizontal as
represented in Fig. 1. Let x* be the transverse coordinate, In the investigated case the conductivity at saturation was
such that x* ¼ 0 at the soil surface and x* is positive assumed to exponentially decrease with depth with a scale of
as entering within the soil. Conversely let x be a vertical exponential decrease L. Equation 1 takes the form:
coordinate, with same origin as x*, positive downward.
From Fig. 1 one gets that: x
Ks ðx Þ ¼ Ks;o e L : (12)

x ¼ x cos b: (7)
If referred to x, (12) takes the form:
Let the soil conductivity be eventually anisotropic, with
Ks ðxÞ ¼ Ks;o eL0 ; L0 ¼ cosL b :
x
principal directions x* and y*. The ratio r between the lateral (13)
and transverse conductivity at saturation is usually higher
than 1. Now let i be the rainfall component normal to the soil Equations 12 and 13 allow to determine the numerical values
surface. With the same condition at the lower boundary, i.e. given by (3, 4, 5 and 6) and (9, 10 and 11) for a horizontal
(xf*) ¼ 0, but accounting for the 2D domain, a perched and a sloping soil, respectively.
water is now considered to onset if:

@ Dimensionless Approach
<0: (8)
@x x
f
According to Corey et al. (1965) the firsts to describe the
displacement of immiscible fluids in a porous medium by
Consistent conditions at the lateral boundary at the
means of a dimensionless approach were Leverett and
domain are a no flux entering the domain at the upstream
Coauthors in their 1942 paper (Leverett et al. 1942). Since
boundary, as for the presence of a watershed, and a seepage
then various approaches were attempted in this direction,
condition at the downstream boundary.
both at the microscale, typically in view of petrologic
Barontini et al. (2011) showed that, under the hypothesis
applications, and at a continuum scale, for hydraulic and
of undefined length of the slope, the infiltration threshold for
hydrological applications. A dimensionless approach can
condition (8) to hold is given by:
prove to be very powerful both in order to design hydraulic
models and in order to lead the parameters choices for
if ðbÞ ¼ Ks xf cos b; (9) numerical applications. One of the key aspects of a dimen-
sionless approach to the flow of immiscible fluids in a porous
which is less than the case of horizontal soil given by (3). medium is the capability of properly representing, in
This is due to the fact that the gravitational gradient sustain- dynamically coherent dimensionless form, the interfacial
ing the flux transversely to the soil layer is less effective as pressure of the fluids, viz the capillary curve in the case of
the water flow in a granular porous medium. Leverett et al. the soil–water dynamics, it is not needed to explicit any
(1942) suggested that, if expressed in a particular dimen- dependency of S on soil mechanical properties, e.g. the soil
sionless form, the capillary curves of unconsolidated sands particle density, its cohesion or its angle of internal friction.
coalesce on a single curve, the so called j function. In the Finally as the unique mass force involved in the problem is
case, instead, of an organic soil, for which the relationship the gravitational field, it is not explicitly represented in the
between the water content and its energetic state should formulation but it is implicitly included in the definition of the
account also for the effect of the organic matter content, hydraulic conductivity at saturation.
the coalescence of the retention relationship on the same In (14) there are on the whole 14 parameters which can
curve is much more difficult. Corey et al. (1965) therefore be roughly grouped as in the followings. The parameters f,
stated that a model of flow in an unsaturated soil will be ys, yr, c1, m, n, , Ks,o (8 parameters) describe the soil–water
effective only if the soil-water constitutive laws have the constitutive laws. Among these, the porosity f does not
same structure and the same values for some parameters. play here an important role as the control role on the soil
In this work we propose a parameters choice, based on an capacity of storing water is played by the effective porosity
application of the Buckingham p-theorem in the framework ys yr; f will be therefore neglected in the further analy-
of a continuum approach, in order to describe the effect of sis. Moreover Mualem’s parameter is usually set at 0.5. Its
the soil anisotropy and steepness on the following steady dependency in the dimensional analysis will be neglected
properties of the perched water tables: (a) the infiltration as well. The characterising parameters of the soil-water
threshold for a perched water table to onset, (b) the infiltra- constitutive laws are therefore reduced to the 6 parameters
tion rate to lead the soil to waterlogging, (c) the position and of the van Genuchten-Mualem framework. L0 and r
magnitude of the maximum positive pressure head at (2 parameters) describe the conductivity unhomogeneity
waterlogging. Even if the problem is characterized by a and anisotropy (L0 being introduced in [13]); xf, yv, b
transition from unsaturated to saturated soil, the proposed (3 parameters) describe the problem geometry. Finally i,
dimensionless approach is focused on steady and saturated only 1 parameter, describes the boundary conditions as the
flow conditions, which are not sensitively affected by the other boundary conditions are structural for the problem
soil-water retention relationship. The obtained results can be and will not be explicitly introduced in the dimensional
therefore reliable also for different soils with different soil- analysis. By a dimensional point of view the parameters
water constitutive laws. can be grouped into three groups. f, ys, yr, m, n, , r, b
Considering the case of a steady infiltration in an expo- (8 parameters) are dimensionless and are presented in
nentially Ks-decreasing soil, inferiorly bounded by a surface their basic form, i.e. they have not been normalized yet;
at c(xf*) ¼ c(xf) ¼ 0 and for defined initial conditions, we c1, L0 , xf, yv (4 parameters) are lengths [L]; Ks,o, i (2
can write, for any generic state property S of the soil, the parameters) are velocities [LT1].
formal dependency: As observed e.g. by Corey et al. (1965, p.7), the effective
soil porosity ys yr characterises the non-steady soil
S ¼ f ðf; ys ; yr ; c1 ; m; n; ‘; Ks;o ; L0 ; r; xf ; yv ; b; iÞ: (14) dynamics. Here, as steady conditions are focused on, it is
dropped from the dimensional analysis. Moreover as it
In (14), besides the parameters already introduced, f, ys, appears from (5, 9, 10 and 11), which hold for a sloping
yr [] are respectively the porosity, the volumetric water soil, also the other parameters characterizing the unsaturated
content at saturation, and the volumetric residual water soil flow, i.e. m, n, and c1, do not explicitly emerge from the
content; c1 [L], m [], n [] are the parameters of the theoretical framework. This fact is mainly due to the focus
soil-water retention relationship described by van on properties of saturated conditions flow. Therefore also
Genuchten’s function, with the usual constraint that m ¼ 1 these parameters are dropped from the dimensional analysis.
1/n; is the relative-conductivity function parameter, Equation 14 is rewritten as:
according to Mualem’s framework; yv is the horizontal pro-
jection of the slope length. S ¼ f ðKs;o ; L0 ; r; xf ; yv ; b; iÞ: (15)
Before analysing (14) three important remarks need to be
added. Firstly, as a continuum approach was chosen, the According to the Buckingham p-theorem, only two
dependency on the water mechanical properties, viz its den- dimensional scales are required in this case to fully express
sity, its dynamic viscosity and its capillary tension at the the problem in a dimensionless form. The set of dimensional
air–water interface, are not explicitly represented but they variables we propose is given by a scaling-length Ls ¼ xf
are implicitly accounted for in the definition of the hydraulic and a scaling-velocity Us ¼ Ks,o. In dimensionless form, and
conductivity at saturation and of the soil–water retention with the usual symbol p for the dimensionless variables, (15)
relationship parameters. Then, focusing on the description of is rewritten as:
Fig. 2 Initial conditions of the flow domain after 12 h infiltration at

low infiltration rate, b ¼ 15 , r ¼ 5 Fig. 3 Steady state conditions after 6 h simulation with soil at
waterlogging, b ¼ 15 , r ¼ 5
pS ¼ FðpL0 ; py ; pi ; r; bÞ: (16)

As an example of the results, in Fig. 3 the pressure
potential field of a 15 sloping soil with anisotropy factor
The effect of pi, r, b on the formation, the thickness and the
r ¼ 5 is represented for i*. As it can be seen an area of
maximum pressure head of a perched water table will be
positive pressure head, up to a pressure potential of 0.15 m,
explored. The theoretical values previously presented are
is observed in the central part of the mesh. This area is above
rewritten in dimensionless form. One gets for if :
and below bounded by surfaces at null or negative matric
p1 0
potential c and, even if there is a long central branch at
pif ¼ e L cos b; (17) almost uniform characteristics, upstream and downstream
boundary effects are observed. The length of the branches
and for i*: affected by boundary effects increases as the anisotropy
factor increases, so that at r ¼ 10 it was not recognizable,
1 for the investigated slope, a central branch with uniform-
pi ¼ 1 cos b: (18)
pL 0 e L 1
p 0 flow pattern. On the other hand, at r ¼ 1, i.e. in the absence
of anisotropy, the central branch with almost uniform pres-
sure distribution is much longer and there the hypothesis of
uniform flow is realistic.
Numerical Experiments
Discussion
The numerical experiments were designed in order to simu-
late a steady process at constant infiltration rate by means of In Figs. 4 and 5 the steady profiles of c and h in the middle
the software Hydrus-2D/3D, which numerically solves the section of the mesh are plotted, as a function of b and at
Richards equation. The dimensions of the mesh are given in r ¼ 5, for the two limit cases of infiltration rate if and i*. In
Fig. 1. In order to represent a gradually decreasing conduc- the unsaturated range a flow takes place in the direction of
tivity with depth, the 0.5 m-thick soil layer was subdivided the increasing c. The c-profiles are weakly sensitive to b
into five layers of 0.1 m, each of them with uniform conduc- and close to saturation, thus playing an important role for the
tivity at saturation, equivalent to that of the gradually vary- soil stability. At the bottom an almost vertical slope of the
ing layer over the same thickness (e.g. Barontini et al. 2007). profile is observed. The corresponding dimensionless if(b)
Ks,o was assumed to be 8.14E-04 m/s and L0 ¼ 0.19 m. A given by (17) are represented in Fig. 6. It can be seen that
coupled van Genuchten-Mualem constitutive laws model if(b) is less than that estimated for the case of b ¼ 0 ,
applied to describe the unsaturated soil-water properties. coherently with the theory. It is moreover well interpreted
c1 ¼ 0.16 m, m ¼ 0.34, n ¼ 1.51, measured for a sand, by the theoretical model both for the magnitude and for the
were chosen as retention curve parameters. As initial independence on the soil anisotropy.
conditions were required in order to perform the simulations, In Fig. 5 the pressure profiles at waterlogging are
aiming at defining steady and almost uniform conditions represented for the same case at r ¼ 5. The non-monotonic
along the slope, a 12 h preliminary simulation at low infil- patterns of h are observed. Moreover the maximum of h is
tration rate (1.4E-06 m/s) was performed. The obtained reached almost in the same position for all the curves,
initial conditions are represented in Fig. 2. Referring to accordingly with the theoretical analyses, and it is quite
(16) two dimensionless parameters were fixed (pL0 ¼ 0.38, sensitive at b, since it decreases as b increases. The
py ¼ 20); the maximum value of pi was chosen bigger than corresponding dimensionless i*(b) given by (18) are
pi*, enough to observe waterlogging; r was chosen equal to represented in Fig. 6 and compared with the theoretical 1D
1, 5, 10, and b spanning from 5 to 30 each 5 . and 2D estimate. Also in this case i*(b) is less than that
Fig. 5 Pressure profiles in the middle section of the flow domain, in

steady conditions, at i ¼ i*
Fig. 4 Tensiometer-pressure profiles in the middle section of the flow
domain, in steady conditions, at i ¼ if
Fig. 7 Dimensionless maximum pressure head ph,max ¼ hmax/xf in the

middle section at waterlogging infiltration rate as a function of the slope
b and of the anisotropy factor r, compared with the corresponding
estimates for the 1D case (dashed black line) and for the 2D case
Fig. 6 Dimensionless infiltration rates pif ¼ if/Ks,o and pi* ¼ i*/Ks,o (“quasi-1D”, dashed red line)
as a function of the slope b and of the anisotropy factor r, compared
with the corresponding estimates for the 1D case (dashed black lines)
and for the 2D case (dashed red lines) with theoretical 1D and 2D estimates (the latter is reported as
quasi-1D in the Figure). It is not sensitively dependent on r
estimated for the case of b ¼ 0 and it is sensitive to the soil and the agreement between the 2D theoretical and numerical
slope. The agreement with theoretical values is worse than results is fair.
for if(b) as the anisotropy factor r increases. This behavior is
Conclusions
attributed to the fact that, at increasing r the branch, where
an almost uniform flux takes place, reduces and the bound- The conditions for perched water table formation and for
ary effects gain importance. waterlogging were numerically investigated for a sloping
The maximum pressure head ph,max ¼ hmax//xf is soil layer characterized by exponentially decreasing con-
represented in Fig. 7 depending on b and r and compared ductivity with depth. The numerical results were
compared with theoretical analyses. In order to lead the hydraulics and hydraulic structures, Palermo, 14–17 Sept 2010,
numerical experiments and to define a methodology to pp 10
Barontini S, Clerici A, Ranzi R, Bacchi B (2005) Saturated hydraulic
generalize the results, a preliminary dimensional analysis conductivity and water retention relationships for Alpine mountain
was performed. The vertical soil depth xf and the soils. In: De Jong C, Collins D, Ranzi R (eds) Climate and hydrol-
upper soil hydraulic conductivity at saturation Ks,o were ogy of mountain areas. Wiley, Chichester, pp 101–122
proposed as a set of independent variables in order to Barontini S, Ranzi R, Bacchi B (2007) Water dynamics in a gradually
non-homogeneous soil described by the linearized Richards equa-
transform the problem in dimensionless form. Five tion. Water Resour Res 43. ISSN: 0043-1397
dimensionless groups, including the anisotropy coeffi- Barontini S, Peli M, Bakker M, Bogaard TA, Ranzi R (2011) Perched
cient r and the soil slope b, were addressed to describe waters in 1D and sloping 2D gradually layered soils. First numerical
the steady properties of the perched water table. The results. Submitted to the XXth Congress of AIMETA, Bologna
Beven KJ (1984) Infiltration into a class of vertically non-uniform soils.
numerical results and the theoretical 2D analyses Hydrol Sci J – Journal des Science Hydrologique Bulletin 24:43–69
provided by Barontini et al. (2011) were found to be in Corey GL, Corey AT, Brooks RH (1965) Similitude for non-steady
good agreement for the infiltration rate at the perched drainage of partially saturated soils. Hydrology papers. Colorado
water table onset, for the maximum pressure head at State University, Fort Collins, 39p
Kirkby M (1969) Infiltration, throughflow and overland flow.
waterlogging, and for the infiltration rate at waterlogging In: Chorley R (ed) Water, Earth and man. Taylor & Francis, Kirkby,
for low values of the anisotropy factor. The agreement is pp 215–227
worse as the anisotropy factor increases because the Leverett MC, Lewis WB, True ME (1942) Dimensional-model studies
uniform flow hypotheses underlying to the theoretical of oil-field behavior. Trans Am Inst Min Met Eng Petroleum Div
146:175–193
framework require longer slopes in order to properly Simunek J, Sejna M, van Genuchten MT (1999) The Hydrus-2D soft-
apply. ware package for simulating two-dimensional movement of water,
heat, and multiple solutes in variably saturated media. Version 2.0.
IGWMC – TPS – 53. International Ground Water Modeling Center,
Acknowledgments The work was partly founded in the framework of Colorado School of Mines. Golden, 251p
European FP7 Project KULTURisk (Grant Agreement n.265280). Van Asch Th WJ, Van Beek LPH, Bogaard TA (2009) The diversity in
hydrological triggering systems of landslides. In: Picarelli L,
Tommasi P, Urciuoli G, Versace P (eds) Rainfall-induced
landslides. Mechanisms, monitoring techniques and nowcasting
References models for early warning systems. Proceedings of the 1st Italian
workshop on landslides, vol 1, Napoli
Barontini S, Ranzi R (2010) Su alcune caratteristiche delle falde pensili Zaslavsky D (1964) Theory of unsaturated flow into a non-uniform soil
in suoli gradualmente vari. In: Proceedings of 32nd congress of profile. Soil Sci 97(6):400–410
Landslide Motion Forecasting by a Dynamic
Visco-Plastic Model
Marco M. Secondi, Giovanni Crosta, Claudio di Prisco, Gabriele Frigerio,

Paolo Frattini, and Federico Agliardi
Abstract
To model the evolution with time of the Bindo-Cortenova translational landslide (Italian
Prealps, Lombardy, Italy), a 1D pseudo-dynamic visco-plastic approach, based on
Perzyna’s theory, has been conceived. The viscous nucleus has been assumed to be bi-
linear: in one case, irreversible deformations develop uniquely for positive yield function
values; in a more general case, visco-plastic deformations develop even for negative values.
The model has been calibrated and subsequently validated on a long temporal series of
monitoring data and it seems quite reliable in simulating the in situ data.
Keywords
Visco-plasticity Delayed plasticity Dynamic model Landslide Movement prediction
Introduction direct correlation between groundwater level oscillations (usu-

ally induced by rainfall) and slope movements. Therefore, the
A challenging issue in geological and geotechnical problems slope movements are characterised by a seasonal trend, with
associated with slope stability concerns the analysis of slid- periods of rest and acceleration. This dynamic behaviour is not
ing masses subject to continuous slow movements and inter- instantaneous but shows a delay between perturbation
mittent stages of slowing and accelerating motion. (increase in water table) and system reaction. It can be
Many translational or roto-translational landslides occur- correlated with a typical viscous response, associated with
ring in Northern Italy (Crosta et al. 2006) are characterized creep phenomena, inducing a permanent – and time delayed
by velocities on the order of few centimetres per year. – deformation of the soil mass.
Usually, this behaviour does not originate sudden and unex- A simple static limit equilibrium analysis is not suitable for
pected failures, nevertheless it is critical for infrastructures modelling and correctly reproducing this type of slope kine-
(roads, tunnels, etc.) and civil buildings. The need of defin- matics. A dynamic, or at least pseudo-dynamic, analysis
ing deformation thresholds in order to prevent damage is a should be adopted, and a delayed-plastic constitutive
major issue for civil protection actions. approach must be employed. The first issue can be addressed
Displacements are usually triggered by hydrologic factors by evaluating the inertial effects on the soil mass by using a
and many authors (Angeli et al. 1996; Corominas et al. 2005; pseudo-dynamic approach, as that introduced by Newmark
Gottardi and Butterfield 2001; Ranalli et al. 2010) observed a (1965) for dams under seismic actions, whereas, viscous
components can be described by employing the visco-
plasticity theory introduced by Perzyna (1963). According to
M.M. Secondi (*) G. Crosta P. Frattini F. Agliardi this theory, the standard plastic flow rule is modified and the
Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche e Geotecnologie, Università consistency condition abolished. Therefore, the visco-plastic
di Milano-Bicocca, P.za della Scienza 4, Milan, Italy
strain rate tensor e_ vp
ij is defined as follows:
C. di Prisco G. Frigerio @g
Dipartimento di Ingegneria Strutturale, Politecnico di Milano, e_ vp
ij ¼ g fðf Þ 0 (1)
Milan, Italy
@sij

152 M.M. Secondi et al.
where f is the yield function, g the plastic potential, g a

constitutive parameter, s0 ij the effective stress tensor and
f (f) the viscous nucleus. To evaluate the rate of visco-
plastic deformations and, hence, the displacements, many
different analytic expressions for the viscous nucleus can be
naturally introduced.
In order to reproduce the monitored deformations of a
translational landslide, we present hereafter a 1D visco-
plastic pseudo-dynamic model based on the Perzyna’s
constitutive relationship (Secondi et al. 2011). In addi-
tion, the results obtained are compared with other
approaches in which the evaluation of the viscous param-
eter is based on simplified analytical formulations
(Corominas et al. 2005).
The Bindo-Cortenova Landslide
The Bindo-Cortenova landslide is a 1.2 km2 wide transla- Fig. 1 Bindo-Cortenova failure (2004 event, Zone A) and unstable area
tional landslide located in Valsassina (Lecco province, (black lines, up to Le Gronde). Piezometers are specified by the points P1,
P2, P3 while the two considered optic devices by B1 and B17
Lombardy, Italy). The site is characterized by a large and
active slope failure occurring in a Permian conglomerate
formation. The sliding material is formed by very large In Situ Monitoring System
conglomeratic rock blocks, up to 100 m in size, immersed
in a gravely sand matrix. Various small landslide activations An in situ monitoring system is operating since May 2003
(on June 1987, November 2000, and May 2001), involving at the site. Figure 1 shows the location of the instruments,
few hundred or thousand of cubic metres of material, took consisting of a series of optical targets, monitored every 2 h
place at the slope toe. The toe of the slope underwent a through two total stations, three inclinometers and TDR
catastrophic failure in December 2002 (volume ca cables, and three open-pipe piezometers instrumented with
1.2 106 m3) after a period of extremely heavy rainfall pressure transducers. Inclinometric records have been consid-
(up to 850 mm in 14 days with respect to an annual rainfall ered to determine the depth and thickness of the sliding surface
of 1,500–2,000 mm/year). On May 2004, a second event (on average 38 and 0.3 m, respectively). In the following we
caused a new collapse (0.2 106 m3) which stepped over will consider only piezometric data and optical target
the 2002 deposit and affected part of the installed monitoring displacements for model calibration. In particular, optical
network. targets B1 and B17 (Fig. 1) were used to calibrate and validate
Slow sliding movements (about 200 mm/year on the model presented, since they are located close to piezometer
average) are still affecting the slope (about 1 km in length, P1 and thus their data can be directly correlated to water table
from the 2004 event crown to the main scarp at 1,250 a.s.l., level data.
Le Gronde in Fig. 1; mean slope angle a ¼ 28 ), on a The used dataset consists of 6–12 daily readings on a
30–50 m deep slip surface. Laboratory tests, carried out 5 years’ time span (from January 2005 to December 2009)
on samples recovered at the failure surface, provided the for which both groundwater level and displacements are
following geomechanical parameters: saturated unit weight available. Daily rainfall data are available from two rain
gsat ¼ 19.01 kN/m3, cohesion c0 ¼ 0 kPa, residual and gauge stations sited at the toe of the slope and 10 km to the
peak friction angles f0 res ¼ 33.9 and f0 ¼ 36 . Friction SE. Figure 2 shows the entire dataset, in order to underline
angle values were obtained by means of load and displace- the correlation between water table level and induced
ment controlled triaxial creep tests. Rheometer tests were displacements. Figure 3 illustrates a typical event where it
also carried out to investigate the viscous mechanical is possible to verify both the dynamic-inertial effects and the
behaviour of the material involved at different water highly viscous mechanical response of the slope. The slope
contents. motion starts after 6 days from the increase in water table
Landslide Motion Forecasting by a Dynamic Visco-Plastic Model 153
Fig. 2 Displacements at B1 and B17 and groundwater level oscillation at P1 (see Fig. 1), from Jan 2005 to Dec 2009
Fig. 3 The landslide (red) starts

accelerating 6 days after the water
table rise (blue), and the slope
motion continues after the
piezometric level has reached the
asymptotic level
elevation and the system continues to accelerate also after shows that their mechanical response is very rapid but not
the peak in water level. This suggests that the deformative instantaneous. The propagation of a stress wave due to a load
reaction is delayed in time and it is not instantaneous. increment (such as the oscillation of the water table) induces
a time-dependent evolution in the soil micro-structure strictly
linked to the mechanical properties of the continuum.
The Visco-Plastic Model Hence, the stress distribution evolves, carrying to a new
non-equilibrated stress configuration. The time interval
Usually, the mechanical behavior of granular materials is assu- needed to reach a final equilibrium state can be interpreted
med as time-independent. Nevertheless, experimental evidence as the time period during which plastic deformations occur
(di Prisco and Imposimato 1996; di Prisco and Zambelli 2003) (in contrast, the elastic deformation can be assumed as
instantaneous). As in standard elastoplasticity, the total

strain rate tensor e_ ij can be assumed to be the sum of the
elastic e_ el
ij and the irreversible e_ ij strain rate tensors:
vp
e_ ij ¼ e_ el
ij þ e_ ij
vp
(2)
Since the elastic deformation can be neglected for the

Bindo-Cortenova landslide, and a rate in angular deforma-
Fig. 4 Rate of axial deformation as a function of the parameters of
tion g_ (a 1D problem is considered) is assumed to be suffi- viscosity Z1 and Z2
cient for describing the slope mechanical behaviour, (2) can
be simplified as follows:
df
r0 (5)
df
g_ ¼ g_ vp (3)
A simple formulation for the viscous nucleus is the bi-
As a residual strength condition is considered for the slope
linear: the deformative behaviour of the slope is different if
(the shear band is assumed at a steady state) dilatancy is
the stress state lies inside or outside the plastic surface
neglected. Hence, no displacements normal to the sliding
(Fig. 4). Two parameters ~g1 (f > 0) and ~g2 (f 0) must be
surface have to be taken into account and the system can be
introduced:
modelled as 1D. Equation (1) becomes:
0 ~g1
~g g_ vp
ij ¼ y þ f if f >0
g_ vp
ij ¼ 0 fðf Þ (4) p0
p (6)
~g2
ij ¼ y þ 0 f if f b0
0
g_ vp
where ~g is a viscous constitutive parameter (calibrated on p
experimental data or by means of back analyses), g_ a func-
tion of the axial deformation rate x_ and of the shear band where the ~g1 replaces ~g of Eq. (4) and y0 is a new constant
thickness Ds, and p0 the isotropic pressure: parameter. The latter identifies the velocity value in
x-direction when f ¼ 0.
0 0 The f function can be put in an explicit form:
x_ 0 s þ 2sh
g_ ¼ ;p ¼ v (5)
Ds 3
f ¼ t tres (7)
The f (f) function directly governs the modulus of g_ vp ,
thus no consistency law is needed and the stress state can where t represents the effective shear stress and tres the yield
violate condition f 0. Irreversible deformations can threshold (depending on the failure criterion adopted). As
evolve for any value of the f function. As described by (4), dynamic and inertial effects must be taken into account, the
visco-plastic deformations can occur even without any load effective shear stress is composed both by the static term tstat
increment. The ~g constitutive parameter represents the (weight of the masses acting on the system), and a dynamic
velocity through which the system evolves and reaches the one (depending on the acceleration in the x-direction and on
asymptotic value of deformation. the masses per unit area m*):
In (4) hardening or softening are neglected. Either the
shape or the dimension of the yield surface are constant t ¼ tstat m x€ (8)
during the irreversible visco-plastic deformation.
By substituting (5), (7) and (8) into (6) and by introducing
the parameters in (9):
The Viscous Nucleus 8
0
>
< y ¼ y Ds
To evaluate the rate of visco-plastic deformations and, p0 (9)
>
: i ¼ i ¼ 1; 2
hence, of the slope displacements, an analytic expression Ds gi
for the viscous nucleus f (f) has to be assigned. The f (f)
function describes the evolution of visco-plastic deforma- the following expression for x-acceleration can be obtained
tion; it always satisfies the following condition: (where i ¼ 1 if f > 0, or i ¼ 2 if f 0):
103 m x€ þ i x_ ¼ i y þ ðtstat tres Þ (10) Table 1 Geomechanical and geometrical parameters (cohesion c0 is
neglected) of the sliding material
As is shown in Fig. 4, when the stress state lies outside the Geo-mechanical parameters Geometrical parameters
plastic surface (f > 0), an increase in 1 brings to a decrease in Stress state
Res. friction angle 33.9 Mean slope angle a [ ] 28
the visco-plastic deformations. The opposite occurs when
f0 res [ ]
f 0. Dry unit weight 15.8 Slide thickness Hun [m] 38
gd [kN/m3]
Sat. unit weight 19.0 Shear band thick. Ds [m] 0.3
gsat [kN/m3]
The Newmark Approach
Mean isotr. press. 380 Sliding length Lun [m] 100
p0 [kPa]
The limit equilibrium approaches usually suppose a rigid-
perfectly plastic behaviour for the slope. This leads to the
conclusion that the deformations start only after the failure slow movements inducing irreversible deformations due to
condition is reached. If the failure criterion is satisfied, the post-failure conditions, a residual friction angle f0 res is used:
shear resistance can be considered as constant and not
depending on the accumulated displacements. Then, in a tres ¼ N 0 tan f0res (12)
limit equilibrium condition, the resistance on the shear
band is not influenced by the slope movements and can be where N0 * is the effective force normal to the sliding plane
considered as constant (and equal to shear resistance). divided by the total contact area.
Within the same framework, in order to introduce a depen- By substituting (11) and (12) into (10), and by means of a
dence on the time factor, the Newmark pseudo-dynamic classical finite difference integration scheme (both for f > 0
approach (Newmark 1965) can be used. This model allows and f 0), it is possible to simulate the displacements for the
to introduce the acceleration term as shown in (8). By means slope.
of a finite difference method, (10) can be solved in terms of
both velocity and displacements for the landslide considered.
The slope is still considered as a non-deformable mass
Numerical Simulations
subjected to a translational motion on a stable-rigid layer. In
contrast with a classical limit equilibrium approach, the acting
In order to numerically simulate the slow motion acting
forces can be either higher or smaller than the constant
during the 2005–2009 period on the Bindo-Cortenova
resisting forces, depending on the magnitude of load incre-
slope, it is necessary to calibrate, by means of back analysis,
ment (e.g. water table oscillations). The higher is the differ-
the set of viscous constitutive parameters (1, 2 and y) using
ence between acting and resisting forces, the higher is the
the previously described displacements (B1 and B17) and
velocity of the system.
groundwater (P1) datasets. Employed mechanical, geotech-
As a pseudo-ductile mechanical behaviour is introduced
nical and geometric parameters, together with stress state
when the limit equilibrium conditions are reached, irrevers-
(isotropic pressure p0 ), are listed in Table 1. The pressure p0 ,
ible deformations can always occur.
acting at the depth of the sliding surface (38 m), has been
In the present study, the Newmark approach and the
evaluated considering a value of the mean piezometric level
Perzyna’s theory have been coupled to model the Bindo-
of 4.47 m (2005–2009 period) above the failure surface.
Cortenova landslide. The Newmark approach considers the
slope as a rigid block placed in the centre of mass. As the
available monitoring system data are referred to the toe of
The Calibration Procedure
the Bindo-Cortenova site (zone A, Fig. 1), the equations of the
model must be modified and an active force SA (divided by the
Various calibrations of the viscous parameters (y, 1 and 2),
total contact area) must be added.
based on different yearly datasets, have been compared. Here
tstat ¼ W 0 ½hðtÞ sin a þ J þ SA (11) we present the best results in terms of modelled displacements.
The slope behaviour must be defined under three different
where W0 is the immersed weight divided by the total contact mechanical conditions (stress state outside, f > 0, inside
area, J the seepage force divided by the total contact area, f < 0, or on the f surface, f ¼ 0), leading to the necessity
and h(t) the water table level (as a function of time t). for three different calibrations.
In order to solve (10), a Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion The same event has been used also to calibrate the
is introduced. As the slope considered is characterised by 2 parameter (Table 2).
Table 2 Viscous nucleus parameters

Calibrated viscous nucleus parameters
y [m/s] 1.44 109 y0 [1/s] 7.79 109
1 [kPa.s/m] 5.06 108 ~g1 [1/s] 2.05 106
2 [kPa.s/m] 4.00 109 ~g2 [1/s] 3.17 107
Fig. 5 2005 dataset and (green rectangle) 6/04–10/09 event, used to calibrate 1 parameter
Fig. 6 2009 dataset and (green rectangle) 27/08–30/11 event, used to calibrate y parameter
Anyway, as the displacement velocity xðf _ Þ is always linear level. The value of the rate of displacement in this condition
(Fig. 4), it is not necessary to define how much the stress state corresponds to the y parameter.
exceeds condition f ¼ 0. The 1 (f > 0) parameter has
been evaluated using the data available between April and
September 2005. During this time period an extremely regular The Simulated Landslide Displacements
oscillation in water table has been observed (Fig. 5, green
rectangle). The piezometric level always exceeds its equilib- Figure 7 illustrates a comparison between predicted and
rium level (4.47 m). Hence t always exceeds tres and measured displacements at point B17, using the pseudo-linear
then f > 0. viscous nucleus. The model predictions fit quite well the
The y parameter (corresponding to the velocity in a limit monitored data. Note that the adopted residual friction angle
equilibrium condition, f ¼ 0) has been calibrated by means was not calibrated by means of back analysis, but measured by
of the event illustrated in Fig. 6 (green dashed box), means of standard triaxial compression tests. The viscosity
characterised by a piezometric level equal to the equilibrium parameters were calibrated on small scale rheometer tests
Fig. 7 Measured and predicted displacements obtained by using the previously discussed approach
(Frigerio 2010) and only the shear band thickness (0.3 m) was 103 m x€ þ x_ ¼ htstat tres i (13)
derived by back analysis.
Calibration based on the entire displacement dataset
available for the Vallcebre landslide (Corominas et al.
Numerical Simulations on the Vallcebre 2005) allowed to obtain both the viscous parameter
Landslide ( ¼ 6.66 107 kPa. s/m) and the residual friction angle
(f0 res ¼ 11.12 ). The latter was compared to the experimen-
Many authors (Butterfield 2000; Gottardi and Butterfield tal friction angle (f0 res ¼ 11.8 , Corominas et al. 2005) in
2001; Corominas et al. 2005) adopted a typical viscous fluid order to test the capability of the proposed model to provide
type approach (Bingham model) or analytical laws (Ranalli also a calibration of geomechanical parameters, when not
et al. 2010) to model slow slope displacements. In order to test available. Figure 8 shows a very good agreement between
the capability of the previously discussed constitutive approach simulated and measured displacements.
to evaluate the deformations of a different landslide, the
Vallcebre case study (Corominas et al. 2005) is here presented. Conclusions
In this case, the viscous nucleus formulation has been In order to numerically reproduce the slow motion of slides,
simplified and the parameters 2 and y are imposed to be a visco-plastic constitutive modelling approach has been
null: the visco-plastic deformations only develop if the stress adopted and coupled to a pseudo-dynamic Newmark
state lies outside the f surface. When an instantaneous load model, to take into account the inertial effects. A pseudo-
increment is applied, the f function and the rate of irrevers- linear formulation for the viscous nucleus has been
ible deformation are set as positive. adopted. The proposed model is capable of reproducing
By means of the same procedure described for (10) and quite satisfactorily the dataset of displacements concerning
by introducing the viscous constant, the following expres- the Bindo-Cortenova case study over a long period of time
sion for x-acceleration can be obtained (about 5 years). The same constitutive approach was also
Fig. 8 Measured and predicted displacements for the Vallcebre landslide
tested on a different slow movement (Vallcebre, Spain), in

terms of dimensions, geometries and materials. References
Future efforts are directed at developing the method to
include the effects of multiple sliding blocks to simulate Angeli MG, Gasparetto P, Menotti RM, Pasuto A, Silvano S
(1996) A visco-plastic model for slope analysis applied to a
the progressive acceleration and/or deceleration of differ-
mudslide in Cortina d’Ampezzo, Italy. Q J Eng Geol
ent landslide sectors as influenced by groundwater 29:233–240
pressures changing along the slope, or their inertial Butterfield R (2000) A dynamic model of shallow slope motion driven
effects. The development of a simplified hydrological by fluctuating groundwater levels. In: Proceedings of the 8th inter-
national symposium on landslides, vol 1. Thomas Telford, London,
model to simulate the groundwater response to rainfall
pp 203–208
or snow melting events could be implemented for improv- Corominas J, Moya J, Ledesma A, Lloret A, Gili JA (2005) Prediction
ing the forecasting capabilities and the use for civil pro- of ground displacements and velocities from groundwater level
tection and emergency actions. changes at the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain).
Landslides 2:83–96
Finally, an evolution of the model would be the possi-
Crosta GB, Chen H, Frattini P (2006) Forecasting hazard
bility to include elements to simulate the collapse of the scenarios and implications for the evaluation of countermea-
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83(1–3):236–253
di Prisco C, Imposimato S (1996) Time dependent mechanical
behaviour of loose sands. Mech Cohes Frict Mater 1(1):45–73
di Prisco C, Zambelli C (2003) Cyclic and dynamic mechanical
Acknowledgments This work was partially funded by the MORFEO- behaviour of granular soils: experimental evidence and constitutive
Italian Space Agency (ASI) project, within the Natural and Human modelling. Rev Franç de Genie Civil 7(7–8):881–910
Related Activities Induced Risks Program. The authors are also grateful Frigerio G (2010) Evoluzione di movimenti franosi lenti: interpretazione
to the Administration of the Municipality of Cortenova and of the dei dati mediante modellazione numerica semplificata. Master thesis
Comunità Montana della Valsassina, Valvarrone, d’Esino e Riviera. (in Italian), Politecnico di Milano
Gottardi G, Butterfield R (2001) Modelling ten years of downhill creep Ranalli M, Gottardi G, Medina-Cetina Z, Nadim F (2010) Uncertainty
data. In: Proceedings of the 15th international conference on quantification in the calibration of a dynamic viscoplastic model of
soil mechanics and geotechnical engineering, Istanbul, 27–31 slow slope movements. Landslides 7:31–41
Aug 2001, pp 1–3 Secondi M, Crosta GB, di Prisco C, Frigerio G, Frattini P,
Newmark NM (1965) Effects of earthquakes on dams and embankments. Agliardi F (2011) Forecasting landslide motion by a dynamic
Geotechnique 15(2):139–160 elasto-visco-plastic model. Geophysical research abstract 13,
Perzyna P (1963) The constitutive equations for rate sensitive plastic EGU2011-13850, European Hazards Session NH3.8, Wien,
materials. Q Appl Math 20:321–332 3–8 Apr 2011
Intelligent Analysis of Landslide Data Using Machine
Learning Algorithms
Natan Micheletti, Mikhail Kanevski, Shibiao Bai, Jian Wang, and Ting Hong
Abstract
Landslide susceptibility maps are useful tools for natural hazards assessments. The present
research concentrates on an application of machine learning algorithms for the treatment
and understanding of input/feature space for landslide data to identify sliding zones and to
formulate suggestions for susceptibility mapping. The whole problem can be formulated as
a supervised classification learning task. Support Vector Machines (SVM), a very attractive
approach developing nonlinear and robust models in high dimensional data, is adopted for
the analysis. Two real data case studies based on Swiss and Chinese data are considered.
The differences of complexity and causalities in patterns of different regions are unveiled.
The research shows promising results for some regions, denoted by good performances of
classification.
Keywords
Landslide susceptibility mapping Machine learning Support vector machines
landslide events and predisposing and triggering factors is

Introduction complex or even not well-known.
During last years, the number of studies about slope
Over the last decade, landslide hazard and risk have been stability and susceptibility to landslides using machine
one of the major research fields at the international level. learning algorithms increased considerably. Examples of
The increasing of economic costs for the insurance publications about this subject are Yao et al. (2008) and
companies resulting for landslide events and other natural Brenning (2005). For more information, a state-of-the-art
hazards introduce the need of better knowledge and tools to about this topic is presented in Micheletti (2011). The most
treat and to study this phenomenon. Because of landslide widely used methods include artificial neural networks
susceptibility (LS) maps are useful tools for natural hazards (ANN), kernel methods (i.e. support vector machines,
assessment, a lot of research was carried out to find the SVM) and logistic regression (LR).
efficient and precise methods for LS mapping. The use of Generally, landslide susceptibility analysis by using
statistical classification models instead of physical machine learning is formulated as a supervised classification
approaches is justified by the fact that the link between learning problem. Despite of the increasing number of
publications on this topic, many open questions still remain.
The main challenges consist in choosing a suitable sampling
N. Micheletti (*) M. Kanevski technique, formulating the input-output spaces properly and
Institute of Geomatics and Risk Analysis, University of Lausanne, selecting the relevant features for the learning task.
Lausanne, Switzerland
In this research we introduce a complete analysis, starting
from raw data to landslide susceptibility mapping, using
S. Bai J. Wang T. Hong
Support Vector Machines as a modelling tool using real
Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environments, Nanjing Normal
University, Nanjing, China datasets from different regions.

162 N. Micheletti et al.
Methodology
Supervised Learning
In a supervised learning task, the output is known for every

observation. Hence, the learning task is to model the unknown
dependence between input and output. To model landslide
susceptibility a supervised classification task is formulated. In
this case, estimation of the class of an unseen sample using a
model constructed on examples provided by the user is aimed.
Support Vector Machines
Support Vector Machines, the workhorse of Statistical Learning

Theory (Vapnik 1998), is a very attractive approach developing
robust and stable models using high dimensional datasets. SVM
can be adapted to different supervised classification learning
task. In the present research, two-class SVM is applied. SVM is Fig. 1 Support vector machine scheme
using Structural Risk Minimization principle of inference trying
to minimize classification error and controlling the complexity The optimization problem (minimization with
of the model. Details about this approach and its application to constraints) is solved in a classical way by introducing the
environmental studies are presented in Cherkassky and Mulier Lagrange multipliers a. Figure 1 presents a two dimensional
(2007) and Kanevski et al. (2009). illustration of the two-class (red and blue dots) classification
The simplest case is a separable linear problem. Consid- problem. Well classified points (a ¼ 0) do not contribute to
ering labelled samples provided by the user, SVM aims the the solution. “Normal” support vectors correspond to
separation of the classes in the input space by a hyperplane 0<a<C and “atypical” or noisy SV to a ¼ C.
(linear model) of the form The prediction for a sample x is formulated as follows:
XL
f ðxÞ ¼ hw; xi þ b (1) Signðf ðxÞÞ ¼ sign y a h x ; xi þ b (3)
i¼1 i i i
where x is a vector describing position of data in high dimen-

sional input space, w and b are the constants obtained after the where yi ¼ {þ1, 1} for two-class problem (e.g. þ1 ¼ red
solution of SVM optimization problem (Vapnik 1998). and 1 ¼ blue) and only points with ai 6¼ 0 contribute to
The correct location of the classification samples in relation the solution.
to the hyperplane is controlled by corresponding constraints. To solve non-linear problems, a kernel function Kðxi ; xÞ
Further, the margin between the two classes is maximized to can be introduced. The latter replaces the dot product hxi ; xi
ensure a classification model with good generalization ability. and maps data into a higher dimensional feature space, where a
In most cases the solution of the optimization problem is sparse linear decision boundary can be constructed. The most com-
and only support vectors (SV) – the samples located on margin monly used is the Gaussian RBF kernel, which introduces
borders – contribute to the solution with non-zero weights. another hyper-parameter, the so-called kernel bandwidth s:
For the non-separable case (noisy data) the SVM was
ðxi xÞ2
extended by allowing some misclassifications and keeping K ð xi ; xÞ ¼ e 2s2 (4)
solution simple - linear. This is done by introducing the slack
variables x. A hyper-parameter C balances the trade-off The goal of SVM training is to select the optimal
between margin maximization and classification error values for the regularization parameter C and the kernel
(empirical risk). The optimization problem can be bandwidth s. There are many algorithms to do it but the
formulated as follows: most usual procedure is to split data into training, validation
P L
and testing subsets and to use the validation data with a grid
2 kw k þ C
2
i¼1 xi
1
min search. The optimal parameters minimize validation error
(2)
Subject to yi ðhw; xi þ bÞ 1 xi (see Kanevski et al. 2009).
Intelligent Analysis of Landslide Data Using Machine Learning Algorithms 163
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using SVM

in Vaud, Switzerland
Vaud Region
The Swiss case study of this research is canton Vaud,

Switzerland. The location of Vaud in the Swiss territory is
illustrated in Fig. 2.
The three main geological regions of Vaud (Prealpes,
Plateau and Jura) were selected as separate study zones.
This is done because of triggering factors and landslide
nature differ considerably between these zones. Hence, the
patterns of these regions which we want to reproduce proba-
Fig. 2 Vaud location
bly also differ significantly. Figure 3 shows the canton Vaud
and its three main geological and morphological sectors.
The Plateau zone is located in the middle part of canton
Vaud. Its rock tender lithology is easily affected by surface
processes as hydrological action and wind erosion. Plateau
features countless moraine formations, generated during last
ice age. After the glaciers melting, hydrological processes
influenced the surface morphology. Today the region is
characterized by gentle hills and an articulated hydrographical
network. Landslide phenomena in Plateau are linked to fluvial
erosion and thus they are mainly located along the rivers.
Generally, these surface sliding zones are strictly influenced
by local hydrological conditions, as preferential flow channels,
presence of aquifers, soil infiltration, etc.
On the North-West side of canton Vaud we can find the Jura
zone. Its structure is characterized by a large scale folded Fig. 3 Main geological regions of Vaud
tectonic, featuring folds of more than a hundred kilometres
length. This structure follows a NE-SW orientation. Valleys
and local morphology are strictly controlled by these folds, used. To introduce this categorical information, a binary
following their direction. Jura’s landslides are mainly formulation is necessary, indicating with 1 the presence of
associated to tender rocks and quaternary forms. The karst a given lithology.
nature of Jura hydrogeology prevents the development of A digital elevation model (DEM) of 25 25 m resolution
large landslide phenomena, unless extreme rainfalls occur. allowed the extraction of different topographic features.
Prealpes are located in the South-East of Vaud. This moun- Firstly, the most used features for slope analysis were cre-
tainous zone features a complex morphology with steep ated. The latter are aspect, slope, plan curvature, profile
slopes. The geological context is characterized by tablecloths curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI) and surface
juxtaposed during the Alps formation. The Prealpes slope curvature. Then the hypothesis that some variables could be
stability is strictly correlated to its lithology and tectonic important not only at small spatial scale, but also at a larger
adduction. Moreover, glacial and hydrological influences re- spatial scale has been formulated. The efficiency of this
modelled the surface, resulting in an even more complex approach was demonstrated in other environmental study
situation. Prealpes feature many huge landslides. Even if concerning modelling of wind fields in complex topography
some triggering factors are well known, tectonic and geologi- (Foresti et al. 2011). Therefore, some Gaussian filters were
cal complexity make predictions in this zone really difficult. applied to some commonly useful features describing soil
curvatures. We chose two filter of different size: 21 and 101
pixels. Finally, the continuous features in the input space are:
Data and Feature Extraction aspect, slope, DEM height, slope filtered with Gaussian filter
101 pixels-sized (G. 101), topographic wetness index, plan
To compute SVM classification, an input space including curvature, profile curvature, plan curvature G. 21, plan cur-
relevant features for the task must be constructed. The Vaud vature G. 101, profile curvature G. 21, profile curvature G.
lithotype database derived from a geological map has been 101, surface curvature, surface curvature G. 21.
Finally, the Vaud landslide database is used to extract the Table 1 Percentage of support vector in the training set for Gaussian
target labels. The output has a binary formulation, 1 SVM (with standard deviation)
indicating an alleged stable sample and þ1 indicating a Points Plateau
sliding one. 500 43.72 % (5.63 %)
2,000 36.60 % (3.28 %)
Sampling and Experimental Setup Table 2 SVM performances: mean test AUC (with standard
deviation)
Both linear and non-linear SVM analyses were carried out. Model Points Plateau
Linear SVM needs only tuning of the C hyper-parameter, Gaussian SVM 500 0.87 (0.010)
while non-linear SVM requires the selection of C as well as Gaussian SVM 2,000 0.88 (0.011)
of s. For both algorithms, three subsets are needed to per- Linear SVM 500 0.84 (0.020)
form the analysis. Firstly, a training set to build the classifier Linear SVM 2,000 0.88 (0.015)
(SVM training) is necessary. Then, a validation set is use to
select the best pair of hyper-parameters. Here a grid search
(scanning of different C and s values and looking for a
minimum on a validation surface error) was applied. We
allowed four values for C (1, 10, 100 and 1,000) and we
looked for the best s between 1 and 10. Finally, a test
set allows the evaluation of the model (model assessment
or the estimation of generalization error).
In addition, two-class SVM needs samples of the two
classes to be performed. Usually, alleged stable examples
can be randomly selected from the region of study. On the
other hand, the sampling of positive sample is more compli-
cated. Many questions arise from this task: the heterogeneity
of landslides zones (where to sample?) and the non-
independence of training, validation and test set in the case
of random sampling, just to mention two of them.
We proposed an object-based sampling strategy. All
landslides have been labelled, and then divided into three
groups: a training one, a validation one and a testing one.
A random sampling is performed from these groups, achiev- Fig. 4 ROC curves for 10 experiments with 2,000 samples (Gaussian
ing landslides independence in geographical space. SVM)
Different sizes of training and validation datasets have
been created, featuring 10 subsets for each size to compute Table 2 summarizes the performances of linear and non-
empirical confidence intervals of the results. A single set of linear SVM algorithms. The evaluation of models is
10,000 points is kept as test set. The performance measure performed by using the test set. Mean and standard deviation
used for model selection assessment is the Area Under the on 10 models created with the same training and validation
ROC Curve (AUC). number of data provide a solid estimation of the perfor-
mance efficiencies and their uncertainties. Very good results
are found for Plateau sub-region, motivating the application
SVM-Performances of similar approach for other zones.
It is interesting to note how linear SVM has very similar
Five hundred and two thousand sized datasets are used to performances to the Gaussian one for Plateau. The same is
analyse SVM performances. Five hundred sized datasets are proven true for Jura. The hypothesis that, including enough
a benchmark for their good quality/computational time ratio, training samples, the two-classes are linearly separable in
while 2,000-sized sets generally ensure a solid classification. these sub-regions can be advanced.
A first analysis of SVM performances considers the per- Finally, ROC curves for 2,000-sized datasets models are
centage of support vectors in the training set, presented given in Fig. 4.
in Table 1. This percentage is a good indicator of the level Performances analyses indicate that Plateau is an easy
of overfitting of the model. The latter is very satisfactory case study. The two classes are discriminated very well,
for our case, since percentages are very low for such a resulting in a mean test AUC of 0.88 using 2,000 samples.
complex task. Empirical observations underline that landslides are almost
Fig. 6 Plateau region of interest: known landslides

Fig. 5 Plateau ROI, landslide susceptibility mapping using two-class
Gaussian SVM with 2,000 points, split n 5
regional valleys and heavy rainfall events, causes strong soil
erosion, landslides and viscous debris and mud flows on
only present on riverside slopes in this sub-region, thus the
slopes. The large volume of material delivered to the valley
model can detect them easily. A trustful and accurate land-
also causes problems.
slide susceptibility mapping can be advanced.
In next section, landslide susceptibility mapping in Vaud’s
Plateau provides a visual explanation of these considerations.
Data and Feature Extraction
Data for SVM classification for Baiyhue catchment area has

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping
three different sources.
Twelve geological formations were derived from geolog-
The SVM decision function is continuous and unbounded.
ical maps and used to define fine lithological units, grouping
Therefore, a probabilistic mapping can be more accessible to
rock types that present similar compositional and mechani-
readers and most importantly to stakeholders, who are the
cal characteristics.
biggest users of such maps. Some regions of interest (ROI)
A digital elevation model was generated from a
have been chosen for predictions, in order to have a more
triangulated irregular network model. The DEM was used to
suitable visualization of quality of the results. In addition, a
produce continuous variables such as elevation, slope angle,
visualization of labels in the same ROI can be useful to
aspect, terrain roughness, shape of the slope parameters, plan
visually estimate the quality of predictions.
curvature and profile curvature.
Landslide probabilistic maps for a Plateau ROI provide
Land cover information is interpreted from TM 5 (Path
outstanding results (Fig. 5). A very strong discrimination
127/Row 39, dated 7/2000) satellite imagery using various
between landslide susceptibility zones and stables ones can
image processing and enhancement techniques. The inter-
be observed which can be confirmed by comparing the
preted images were digitally processed to further modify the
predictions with the known landslide locations (Fig. 6).
boundaries by a supervision classification task. The accuracy
Very high confidence in uncertainties illustrates how the
of the land-use interpretation was checked in the field. Eleven
model’s performances are solid and trustful.
vegetation types were recognized.
Finally, drainages, roads and faults digitized from topo-
graphic maps have been used. Distances from these objects
Introduction to Landslide Data Analysis are included as features.
in Gansu Province, China A detailed landslide-inventory map of the study area was
constructed by interpretation of aerial photographs. Extensive
Baiyhue Catchment Area in Gansu field studies were used to check the size and shape of landslides.
The Baiyhue catchment area in China’s north-western prov-

ince Gansu is the subject of a work-in-progress landslide SVM-Analyses
analysis and modelling using SVM. The goal of this study is
to assist regional planning and risk management. Like for Swiss case study, SVM algorithm is used to perform a
The lithology of the mountainous 432 km2 large study supervised classification for landslide susceptibility mapping.
area comprises loess deposits, mudstones and other weak Data was divided in three subsets for model construction,
formation. These soil property, associated to the steepness of selection and assessment. Training dataset includes 1,820
Fig. 7 Landslide susceptibility

mapping using two-class
Gaussian SVM, Baiyhue
catchment area, Gansu, China
samples, while validation and test sets include 636 examples In general, results show that SVMs can be successfully
each. In the datasets the number of landslide and alleged adopted in landslide susceptibility mapping. Future per-
stable point is the same. After the first analysis by applying spective for such approach include, besides feature selec-
SVM, an accuracy of 80.04 % is found on independent data. tion, analysis of different regions and application of other
A probabilistic map of landslide in Baiyhue area is presented machine learning algorithms (artificial neural network,
in Fig. 7. Independent data used to assess the model is added to random forest, self-organizing maps, general regression
the map (þ1 for landslide samples, 1 for stable ones). neural networks, etc.) for comparison and decision-
In general, results are satisfactory, identifying well the oriented mapping.
valley slopes known as landslide susceptible. However,
more efforts to assess the model are still in progress, as Acknowledgments This research was partly supported by Sino-Swiss
additional data and a more detailed analysis of results. cooperation project EG 42-032010, Swiss National Science Founda-
tion, project “GeoKernels: kernel-based methods for geo- and environ-
mental sciences, Phase II: 200020-121835/1” and National Natural
Conclusions
Science Foundation of China (Nos. 40801212).
In conclusion, SVM analysis in Plateau, Vaud, Switzerland We would like to thank A. Pedrazzini and M. Jaboyedoff for their
confirms prior knowledge acquired by empirical obser- important contribution in data gathering and the indispensable knowl-
edge in the field of landslides they provided to the current research. We
vations. Good performances achieved illustrate how Support
also are grateful to L. Foresti, G. Matasci and M. Volpi for all interest-
Vector Machines could be useful for landslide susceptibility ing discussion and valuable help.
mapping. The other Vaud sub-regions can be analysed with
the same methodology. The interested reader can find insight
about this case study in Micheletti (2011). An important References
question in landslide susceptibility mapping is the feature
space construction and feature selection, especially because Brenning A (2005) Spatial prediction models for landslide hazards:
different regions can be feature specific. The first results in review comparison and evaluation. Nat Hazard Earth Syst Sci
5:835–862
this direction are quite promising and can be found in
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Micheletti (2011). and methods. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey
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Baiyhue catchment area of Gansu, China already fields with multiple kernels. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess
25(1):55–66
produced interesting new results, as illustrated by solid
Kanevski M, Pozdnoukhov A, Timonin V (2009) Machine learning
performances and a trustful landslide susceptibility for spatial environmental data: theory, applications and software.
mapping. EPFL Press, Lausanne
Micheletti N (2011) Landslide susceptibility mapping using adaptive Yao X, Tham LG, Dai FC (2008) Landslide susceptibility
support vector machines and feature selection, M.S. thesis, Univer- mapping based on support vector machines: a case study on
sity of Lausanne, Switzerland natural slopes of Hong Kong, China. Geomorphology
Vapnik V (1998) Statistical learning theory. Wiley, New York 101:572–582
Challenging Calibration in 3D Rockfall Modelling
Paolo Frattini, Giovanni B. Crosta, Federico Agliardi, and Silvia Imposimato
Abstract
Rock fall hazard assessment is a very demanding problem because of the complexity of the
involved physics and its intrinsic stochasticity. New powerful tools, developed in the last few
years, are characterized by different degrees of completeness, models, and algorithms. In the
following, the modelling approach developed through the years within the code Hy_Stone is
presented. Some issues related to the sensitivity to 3D topographic descriptions, the effects of
stochasticity on model results and the calibration of 3D rockfall simulation are presented.
Keywords
Rockfall modelling DEM ruggedness DEM resolution Stochasticity Calibration
Introduction Nevertheless, modular semi-empirical algorithms, which

give generally consistent results, but may fail to provide
The increasing availability of advanced data-collection a physically-sound simulation of complex phenomena, are
techniques and powerful computers allowed a substantial sometimes adopted. For example, pseudo-hydrologic
step forward in simulating and understanding the physics of approaches adopted in the trajectory simulation and forcing
rockfall processes. Useful tools to assess rockfall hazard, and the simulated blocks to follow curved fall paths can be
to improve the reliability of countermeasure design, are now misleading. On the other hand, introduction of many
available. In this respect, the development of 3D modelling simplified empirical relationships could give a false sense
techniques provides advanced tools to assess rockfall hazard of comprehension of the phenomenon, suggesting conse-
either over large areas or at the local scale. quently an unrealistic level of refinement that could hamper
Nevertheless, not all the models are able to take into a correct interpretation of the results and of the obtained
account the different aspects of the rockfall physics, includ- derived maps.
ing impact and related controls, 3D effects (e.g. lateral Here some modelling approaches implemented in the 3D
dispersion), impact against structures, effects of vegetation, rockfall simulator Hy_Stone are presented, with special
and block fragmentation. Accounting for all this phenomena focus on the sensitivity to 3D topographic descriptions, the
in a reasonably simple way is important to reliably predict effect of stochasticity on model results and the calibration of
block trajectories, frequency and energy for susceptibility, 3D rockfall simulation.
hazard and risk analysis, and for countermeasure design. The core module of Hy_Stone (Crosta et al. 2004; Frattini
et al. 2008; Agliardi et al. 2009; Frattini et al. 2012) is a
hybrid algorithm based on modifications of Pfeiffer and
P. Frattini (*) G.B. Crosta F. Agliardi Bowen (1989) and Azzoni et al. (1995), which exploits high
Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche e Geotecnologie, Università di resolution 3D descriptions of topography (e.g. LIDAR) up to
Milano-Bicocca, P.za della Scienza 4, Milan, Italy
sub-metrical scale. The algorithm allows to simulate free fall,
impact and rolling with different damping relationships avail-
S. Imposimato
FEAT, Finite Element Application Technology, Heerlen,
able. Topography is described by a DEM, and all the relevant
The Netherlands parameters are spatially distributed. Stochasticity of rockfall

170 P. Frattini et al.
processes and parameters is accounted for by slope rugged- and risk zonation and interpretation should be accurately
ness, and by random sampling of most parameters. considered.
Specific model components have been implemented Two-dimensional modelling tools have been developed
allowing to explicitly, albeit simply account for the inter- on the basis of lumped mass, hybrid or rigid-body approaches
actions between blocks and countermeasures or structures. to simulate rockfall along “subjectively” predefined slope
A new elasto-viscoplastic (VPL) constitutive model profiles following the most probable fall paths. They are
(Di Prisco and Vecchiotti 2006) has been implemented into reliable tools to which a high degree of subjectivity and
Hy_Stone as a damping model to simulate the response of uncertainty can be associated. Three-dimensional effects
homogeneous granular layers of any inclination subjected to resulting from slope ruggedness, vegetation, topographic
the impact of spherical rigid boulders. The module accounts irregularities, block geometry, natural or artificial obstacles
for the time dependence of the mechanical response of soil and barriers cannot be considered.
layers due to material fabric rearrangement induced by block Three-dimensional models (Guzzetti et al. 2002; Agliardi
penetration, using coupled visco-plastic and Coulomb friction and Crosta 2003; Crosta et al. 2004; Dorren et al. 2006; Lan
mechanisms. et al. 2007; Agliardi et al. 2009) can take advantage of the
A specific module explicitly accounts for the geometric Digital Elevation Models available at different resolutions.
and dynamic effects of vegetation (Crosta et al. 2005, 2006), The quality of the results depends on the type of adopted
with different types of simulated impacts depending on the approach, the number of trajectories, the cell resolution, the
relative position of the block with respect to the obstacle, dynamic description of the motion and impact, the preva-
and a stochastic approach implemented to account for uncer- lence of physics-based or empirically-based laws, the possi-
tainty. Finally, a specific fragmentation model has been bility to introduce a probabilistic approach. In the following,
developed and included in Hy_Stone. The model detects possible approaches, problems and results are discussed by
fragmentation conditions based on a fracture energy crite- performing simulations by the Hy_Stone code.
rion. At each fragmentation point, the fragment grain size
distribution and the kinetic energy of each generated particle
are determined according to user-defined constraints. The Energy Loss Modelling
stochastic nature of this process is also accounted for and the
model allows for a complete traceability of the primary and Apart from the geometrical constrains, the block impact and
secondary trajectories. rebound are the most complex and influent processes in rock
Here the model performance is tested through the back fall propagation. Different modelling approaches have been
analysis of real, well characterised events and experimental proposed (Falcetta 1985; Bozzolo and Pamini 1986; Pfeiffer
data, and the potential of this kind of modelling for local- and Bowen 1989; Jones et al 2000; Di Prisco and Vecchiotti
scale hazard assessment and countermeasure evaluation and 2006; Bourrier et al. 2008) and require different data about
design is discussed. Analyses have been performed in a the material at the, or proximal to the surface.
complex area located in the Italian Alps (Venzone, Friuli Contact functions make use of restitution and friction
Venezia Giulia) that has been interested by two main coefficients for which empirical values are often presented
earthquakes occurred in May and September 1976. These and tabulated (Paronuzzi 1989; Pfeiffer and Bowen 1989;
earthquakes triggered hundreds of rockfalls that have been Azzoni et al. 1992; Azzoni and De Freitas 1995; Ushiro et al.
mapped soon after the event (Comunità Montana del 2000; Wong et al 2000; Chau et al. 2002; Labiouse and
Gemonese 1977; Govi 1977; Onofri and Candian 1979). Heidenreich 2009) but that can be influenced by many
variables and that cannot be unique and deterministically
defined.
More sophisticated numerical approaches based on either
Rockfall Modelling Approaches
finite element (FEM) or discrete element (DEM) methods
have been employed to simulate the impact process.
Available modelling tools can be differentiated on the basis
To improve the Hy_Stone model performance and to
of the basic assumptions, considered spatial dimensions,
accomplish a more reliable countermeasure design the
physical soundness, data analysis/exchange capabilities,
BIMPAM constitutive model (Di Prisco and Vecchiotti
and computational efficiency. It is therefore important to
2006) has been implemented in the code. The impact model
be aware of the differences among the proposed approaches
assumes a spherical rigid boulder; it neglects block spin rate
and to evaluate correctly their appropriateness for the
and fragmentation, and considers a cohesionless soil and a
planned scopes. Furthermore, the difficulty in parameteriza-
constant local value for the slope. The required input data are
tion and calibration of more recent models, and the
the local slope gradient, block size and impact velocity, and
consequences on the results in terms of susceptibility, hazard
values of the physical mechanical soil properties. The model
Challenging Calibration in 3D Rockfall Modelling 171
can simulate impacts on any slope surface, with inclination

lower than the internal friction angle of the material, by using a
visco-plastic and a coupled Coulomb friction mechanism. This
last occurs in case of trajectories inclined with respect to the
normal to the impact surface. The Hy_Stone numerical itera-
tive explicit solution of the non-linear differential equation
system provides the block displacement and the exit velocity
vector, dynamic load on the soil, and depth of penetration.
Effects of Topographic Model Resolution

and Ruggedness
Contact functions are frequently used for energy loss

modelling due to the simplicity to incorporate this approach
into the model. Such functions are expressed as restitution
and friction coefficients, whose values have been derived
through experimental or empirical observations of scale or in
situ rock fall tests. However, these values can be very differ-
ent since the coefficients include the effects of different
characteristics of both the slope and the block (e.g., type of
substrate and surface material, block mass, block shape,
block material, geometry of the block to surface contact).
Here, the influence of DEM resolution and surface rug-
Fig. 1 Modelling results obtained by using DEMs generated with
gedness on model rockfall restitution and friction coeffi- different algorithms and resolutions: (a) 1 m gridded LiDAR DEM,
cients is investigated. This is of interest since LIDAR and (b) 5 m gridded DEM by resampling of 1 m LiDAR, (c) 10 m gridded
terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) DEMs have been recently DEM by resampling of 1 m LiDAR, (d) 10 m gridded interpolated
DEM from TOPOGRID algorithm. All models have been simulated
made available, allowing for a very accurate surface descrip-
using a single parameter set (correctly calibrated for 10 m gridded DEM
tion resulting in a generally rougher surface with respect to by resampling of 1 m LiDAR, b). The background map shows the
other techniques adopted for DEM generation. For the study approximate trajectories and the arrest position for block fallen during
area of Venzone (Friuli, Northern Italy), 3D simulations the 1976 Friuli earthquakes (Comunità Montana del Gemonese (1977))
have been performed with DEMs generated with different
tools and algorithms (LiDAR DEM, TOPOGRID DEM and
TIN-to-RASTER DEM), at different resolution (from 1 to
20 m grid) for a total of nine models.
Using the same parameter sets with different DEMs, large
differences in the results can be observed, with longer runout
simulated for coarser DEMs and shorter runout with more
resolute DEMs (Fig. 1).
This effect can be attributed to different ruggedness of
DEMs as a function of cell size (Crosta and Agliardi 2004).
In order to obtain, with different DEMs and by back
Fig. 2 Variation (in percentage with respect to calibrated values of the
analysis of real events, a consistent pattern of impact
coefficients for a 1 m gridded LiDAR DEM) of (a) rolling friction (rf )
marks, runout, 3D dispersion pattern (e.g. different curvature and (b) restitution coefficients (normal and tangential, nr and tr)
of trajectory), and type of motion (e.g. bouncing, rolling) it required to calibrate the rockfall models as a function of DEM
is therefore necessary to adopt a different set of input restitu- resolution
tion and friction coefficients. In particular, parameter values
were adjusted in percentage with respect to the values coefficients up to 170 %. Although the effect of DEM reso-
calibrated using the 1 1 m LiDAR DEM, and the variation lution is evident, it can observed that DEMs generated with
of parameters plotted as a function of DEM resolution different algorithms needed different parameter sets for the
(Fig. 2). same cell size. Hence, it is not possible to derive a general
The comparison of the different models allows to law that simply scales the parameter values as a function of
recognize variations of required restitution and friction DEM resolution.
In order to explicitly investigate the dependence of

coefficients on surface ruggedness, the Vector Ruggedness
Measure, VRM (Fig. 3), based on a geomorphological
method for measuring the dispersion of vectors normal to
each grid cell (Sappington et al. 2007), has been computed
for each DEM. This measure has been proved to be less
correlated with slope than other approaches (Sappington
et al. 2007).
By plotting the variation of coefficients needed to cali-
brate the models as a function of ruggedness (Fig. 4), a trend
which can be interpolated by different functions (e.g. linear,
along the entire data interval or for a partial range; sigmoi-
dal) can be outlined. Plots suggest that VRM parameter is
suitable to describe the control of ruggedness on friction and
restitution coefficients.
Hence, it could possible to use this relationship as a
general-purpose law for scaling the coefficients according
to DEM ruggedness. This can be a fundamental tool when
performing simulations and calibrating models in areas
where field observations and high resolution DEM are not
available.
Effects of Stochasticity on Model Results and

Calibration
The stochastic approach adopted in the Hy_Stone code

allows to take into account for a series of possible Fig. 3 Examples of Vector Ruggedness Measure (VRM) for DEMs
influencing factors as the block/scree size ratio, the block with different resolution and generation algorithms: (a) 1 m gridded
LiDAR; (b) 10 m gridded DEM by resampling of 1 m LiDAR; (c) 10 m
size, the block trapping, the block irregular geometry as well gridded DEM generated by TOPOGRID algorithm; (d) 10 m gridded
as the slope ruggedness at a scale lower than the DEM DEM generated by TIN model. The relative frequency histogram of
resolution. All these processes, in fact, affect the propagation VRM values for each map is reported. The lower-right plot shows the
of blocks, resulting in a wide range of behaviour and runout relationship between VRM and DEM resolution
distances reached by single blocks moving along the slope.
Stochasticity of rockfall processes and parameters is
accounted for by random sampling of most parameters. The
model allows for the selection of different distributions (e.g.
uniform, gaussian or exponential) and for the setting of
parameters that controls the dispersion about the nominal
value, and the truncation of the distribution for lower and
upper limits.
For example, Gaussian distributions can be used for resti-
tution and friction coefficients. Spatially distributed mean
values are assigned to each grid-cell of the area using raster Fig. 4 Variation (in percentage with respect to calibrated values of the
coefficients for a 1 m gridded LiDAR DEM) of (a) rolling friction (rf)
files. The dispersion is attributed in terms of a stochastic and (b) restitution coefficients (normal and tangential, nr, tr), required
range. This value is a percentage which multiplies a random to calibrate the rockfall models as a function of ruggedness (VRM).
variate distributed as a standard normal distribution, (i.e., Linear and sigmoidal fittings are shown
mean ¼ 0, standard deviation ¼ 1). In other words, for
each impact, the restitution and friction coefficients are where coeffraster is the nominal value given by the operator
assigned as: for each grid cell of the area, p is the random normally
distributed variate and stochR is the stochastic range, in
coeff ¼ coeffraster þ p stochR (1) percentage (Fig. 5).
Fig. 5 Examples of stochastic distribution of restitution coefficients

starting from a nominal value of 0.5. Relative frequency refers to the
number of samples in each bin, Ni, (bin width ¼ 0.025) divided by the
total number of samples, Ntot (here, Ntot ¼ 30,000)
Fig. 7 Maps of transits and arrest points obtained by adopting different

values of stochastic range for the 1 m LiDAR-DEM models: (a) 0 %,
(b) 30 %, (c) 50 %, (d) 100 %. Ten blocks have been launched from
each source cell. For the model with 0 % of stochastic range, all blocks
simulated from a given cell follow exactly the same trajectory, i.e., the
minimum number of blocks passing through a cell is 10. Background
map as in Fig. 1
Fig. 6 Distribution of simulated arrest points along the slope as a

debris talus, and a progressive decrease of the maximum
function of the distance from the cliff, for different stochastic range runout, are observed.
values With a stochastic range of 100 %, the maximum fre-
quency is observed at 275 m, with maximum runout at
In order to avoid meaningless values, the coefficient 375 m. Hence, the distribution of blocks along the talus is
distribution can be truncated between significant minimum strongly controlled by the degree of stochasticity of restitu-
and maximum values (e.g., for restitution coefficients 0–1). tion and friction coefficients (Fig. 7).
Here, the Venzone study area has been considered to Using a high degree of stochasticity it is possible to
investigate the influence of stochasticity on rockfall simulate a more realistic population of blocks along the
modelling. Back analyses of real events with different values slope (e.g., Fig. 7d). Some blocks stop along the upper sector
of the stochastic range have been performed. of the talus due to the random extraction of very low values
For a stochastic range of 0 % (no stochasticity), the for the restitution coefficients. This stochastic process
distribution of arrested blocks along the cliff is narrow mimics the effect of block trapping, and slope ruggedness
with a maximum frequency located approximately 300 m at a scale lower than the DEM resolution, and for example
from the cliffs (Fig. 6). the abundance of very small particles in proximity of the
The maximum distance reached by blocks is 425 m. talus apex. However, the maximum runout is underestimated
Similar results can be observed for values of stochastic because the effect of randomly selecting lower values (e.g.,
range lower than 30 %. Increasing the stochastic range restitution close to 0) is stronger than the selection of high
above 30 %, a larger number of blocks arrested along the values (e.g., restitution close to 1): once the energy is lost
due to a low restitution value it cannot be retrieved by

successive selection of high restitution values. Conclusions
Using a low degree of stochasticity, it is possible to
Calibration of rockfall models is a tricky and painstaking
accurately calibrate the model with respect to the maximum
task. Physical and topographic constraints make it diffi-
observed runout, because the distribution is narrow, and
cult: as a consequence, the results can be misinterpreted.
most of the blocks tend to reach the same distance. However,
Calibration of 2D models is easier and the interpretation
the distribution of blocks along the slope is unrealistic with
of the results is more straightforward. On the contrary,
respect to the debris talus and its formation.
3D models allow a much more significative zonation and
the inclusion of multiple controlling factors.
The adoption of more physically-based impact models,
such as BIMPAM (di Prisco and Vecchiotti 2006), allows
Discussion
a more sound simulation. For the description of the
materials, this type of approach introduces different
The choice of the mean value and of the stochastic range
mechanical parameters that can be surveyed in the field.
strongly control the final result of modelling.
Model calibration can be carried out in a conservative or Acknowledgments This work has been partially carried out within the
more design-oriented approach or in a evolutionary-oriented MASSMOVE Interreg II project. Emanuela Barbanti and Francesca
Colucci from the University of Milano – Bicocca performed part of the
approach. modelling.
The former methodology implies that the operator tries to
fit the maximum runout events because those stopping along
the talus are of no interest or even go undetected. In this case,
the restitution coefficients must be larger (opposite for the
References
friction coefficient) and characterized by a smaller disper-
Agliardi F, Crosta G (2003) High resolution three-dimensional
sion (i.e., small stochasticity). numerical modelling of rockfalls. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci
On the contrary, the calibration of a model oriented to the 40(4):455–471
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assessment and countermeasure design by 3D modelling tech-
ment of a talus slope, requires in general lower values of the
niques. Nat Hazard Earth Syst Sci 9(4):1059–1073
mean and a larger dispersion (i.e., large stochasticity). Azzoni A, De Freitas MH (1995) Experimentally gained parameters,
The choice of the frequency distribution could also control decisive for rock fall analysis. Rock Mech Rock Eng 28(2):111–124
the final result. As a consequence, the person involved in Azzoni A, Rossi PP, Drigo E, Giani GP, Zaninetti A (1992) In situ
observations of rockfalls analysis parameters. In: Proceedings of the
hazard and risk assessment activities should carefully con- sixth international symposium of landslides. Balkema, Rotterdam,
sider how he has accomplished calibration and how he takes pp 307–314
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Furthermore, it is clear that a non unique set of rock falls using a mathematical model. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci
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Bourrier F, Nicot F, Darve F (2008) Physical processes within a 2D
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Crosta GB, Frattini P, Imposimato S, Agliardi F (2006) Modeling
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9:1981–1993
A Simple Model for Passive Failure Compression
Structure at the Toe of Landslide
Angelo Doglioni, Annalisa Galeandro, and Vincenzo Simeone
Abstract
The toe of landslides is subject to compression stresses induced by the upward sliding
masses and often characterized by a compression structure. These structures can evolve in
passive toe thrust, which bias the geomorphologic evolution of the toe zone, particularly for
prevailing longitudinal dimension landslide. This work presents a simple analytic model of
the passive thrust at the toe of landslide based on the infinite slope approach to stability
analysis. It is based on the analysis of the state of stresses according to Mohr circle
representation and can be implemented also into a spreadsheet and making it possible to
evaluate the form of failure surface at the toe of the landslide and the shear strength
contribution to the factor of safety of a landslide.
Keywords
Landslide toe Passive failure Toe landslide compression structure Passive toe
thrust Infinite slope
landslide as earth-flow based on a sequence of passive toe

Introduction thrust. The sliding materials arrive at the accumulation zone,
loading the toe of the slope. When the compression stresses
At the toe of landslide, ground surface is often upward of the sliding soil exceed the passive shear strength at the
concave and is characterized by a compressive state of stress toe, a thrust due to passive failure surface is created. There-
(Savage and Smith 1986) that may originate compressive fore, when the landslide is subject to several reactivations,
plastic flow and compression structure that can evolve in its toe is constituted by different overlapped retrogressive
passive failure thrust (Sdao and Simeone 1997) (Fig. 1). lobes, due to different passive failure surfaces, each one
Savage and Smith (1986) model landslides in Mohr- referred to different activation stages of the landslide.
Coulomb plastic soil showing how compressive, extending Urciuoli (2002) analysed the state of stress of an infinite
or plug flow happen in different zone of the landslide slope according to Mohr plane circle representation. He
masses. They predict tensile longitudinal stresses at the showed how the position of the pole in Mohr plane repre-
upper part of the landslide and compression stresses and sentation is related to the ratio of stresses, between the stress
listric thrust faults and thrust fault scarps at the surface in component parallel and normal to the slope. This plays a
compressive flow at the toe of instable masses. crucial role in defining the thickness of the shear zone and in
Sdao and Simeone (1996, 1997) proposed a geomorphic strains and displacement before failure.
model for the lobes at the toe of main longitudinal dimension Savage and Wasowski (2006) used the Savage and Smith
(1986) model to analyse scarp and toe failure surface for the
Acquara-Vadoncello landslide in Senerchia, Southern Italy.
A. Doglioni (*) A. Galeandro V. Simeone The modelled failure surface was really close to that
Engineering Faculty of Taranto, Technical University of Bari, viale del reconstructed from a detailed in situ survey.
Turismo 8, Taranto, Italy

178 A. Doglioni et al.
Fig. 1 Schematic representation of the failure surface at the accumu-

lation zone
Simeone and Sdao (2002) presented a first step analytical

formulation of the proposed passive failure mechanism
applied to a case study of a huge earth-flow slide in Southern Fig. 2 Infinite slope model
Apennine.
Starting from that formulation, this work yields a simple
analytic model of the passive thrust at the toe of a landslide
based on Mohr plane circle representation of the state of stress
in an infinite slope. The model allows for theoretically
evaluating the inclination and the form of the backward pas-
sive failure surfaces and the contribution of the toe strength to
the safety factor of the slope. The work presents the model and
the results of the passive toe thrust failure surface obtained in
different cases. To validate the results, the model is applied to
the case study of Acquara-Vadoncello landslide (Savage and Fig. 3 Mohr circle of the state of stress at the toe of the landslide flow
Wasowski 2006). The obtained passive thrust failure surface is channel (cohesion ¼ 0)
compared with the slip surfaces reconstructed and predicted by
Savage and Wasowski (2006). left side of the centre of Mohr circle (Fig. 3). Pole P according
also to Urciuoli (2002) and Lancellotta (2004) is on the right
side of Mohr circle centre. Toward the toe of the landslide, the
sliding masses increase the compression stress and then the
The Model diameter of Mohr circle, until the circle is tangent to the failure
criterion in F (Fig. 3). Therefore, there is a passive failure of
The proposed model allows for a simple and theoretically the sliding masses according to a failure surface that has an
correct evaluation of the shape of the backward passive failure inclination i (Fig. 3).
surfaces at the toe of an infinite slope landslide channel, using Using a Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion where the cohesion
Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. The approach is based on equals zero (Fig. 3), the analytical coordinates of pole P are:
Mohr circle plane representation of the state of stresses. More-
over, it is also possible to evaluate the contribution of the toe 0:5
sP ¼ s0 ½1 þ ðsin2 f cos2 ftan2 bÞ =ð1 þ tan2 bÞ (3)
strength to the stability of the upward masses.
The landslide flow channel is modelled as an infinite tP ¼ sP tanb (4)
slope with an inclination b and a shear surface at depth z
and unit weight of the soil g (Fig. 2). where the state of stress of the centre of Mohr circle s0 is:
According to the classical analytical expression for the state 0:5
of stress along the slip surface, the state of stress at a point S s0 ¼ ðss =cos2 fÞ½1 þ ðcos2 f=cos2 bÞ (5)
along the slip surface in the toe zone can be evaluated (Fig. 2) as:
The state of stress along the passive failure surface (point
sS ¼ gzcos2 b (1) F, Fig. 3) is:
tS ¼ gzcosbsinb (2)
sF ¼ s0 cos2 f (6)
where gz ¼ W.
tF ¼ s0 sinfcosf (7)
Then, in a Mohr plane representation, the point
representing the state of stress along the sliding surface of
Then, it is possible to evaluate the inclination of the
the infinite slope, is on a straight line starting from the origin
passive failure surface i, which is evaluated as:
and b sloping. At the compression zone, like the toe, according
to Mohr plane circle representation of the state of stress, the
i ¼ tan1 ½ðtF tP Þ=ðsP sF Þ (8)
point S, i.e. the state of stress along the sliding surface, is on the
A Simple Model for Passive Failure Compression Structure at the Toe of Landslide 179
If the cohesion is different than zero, the inclination of

passive failure surface changes moving from the sliding to
the ground surface. It depends on the radius of Mohr circle.
Toward the ground surface the stress values are lower and
the centre of Mohr circle is closer to the axes’ origin and the
failure plane became steeper (Fig. 5).
Then, the passive failure surface is bow shaped: its incli-
nation is low near the sliding surface and it is higher close to
the ground surface. In this case, the failure surface could be
approximated by a polyline, dividing the sliding mass in
different layers (Figs. 5 and 6).
For each layer, the stress state along the direction parallel
to the slope can be evaluated according to (1) and (2) using
Fig. 4 Passive strength at the toe of the flow channel (cohesion ¼ 0)
the depth of the center of the layer as z value. Then, for each
Fig. 5 Mohr circle of the state of

stress at the toe of the landslide
flow channel (cohesion 6¼ 0)
where tF, sF, tP and sP can be evaluated according to (3, 4, 6 layer the state of stress of the center of Mohr-plane circle
and 7). If the cohesion equals zero, moving from the sliding representation (Fig. 5) can be evaluated. For the layer num-
toward the ground surface, Mohr circle of the state of stress ber n the coordinate of the center of the Mohr circle is:
became smaller. However, the inclination of the passive
failure surface is the same. So the passive failure thrust sS;n þ csinfcosf
so;n ¼ þ
surface is a straight line with inclination i. cos2 f
In this case, starting from this analytical formulation, it is qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
c2 cos2 f þ s2S;n ð1 cos2 f=cos2 bÞ þ 2csS;n sinfcosf
also possible to evaluate the passive strength at the toe of the þ
landslide DT (Fig. 4): cos2 f
(13)
Tpass cosi þ Npass sini
DT ¼ (9) In this case the analytical coordinates of point Pn are:
cos b
qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
where sP;n ¼ ½s0;n þ s20;n ð1 þ tan2 bÞðs20;n Rn Þ=ð1 þ tan2 bÞ
(14)
NP ¼ sF =2 Dl (10)
tP;n ¼ sP;n tanb (15)
TP ¼ tF =2 Dl (11)
and the stress state along the passive failure surface is:
and
sF;n ¼ spass;n ¼ s0;n Rn sinf (16)
DH
Dl ¼ cosb (12) tF;n ¼ tpass;n ¼ Rn cosf (17)
sin i
180 A. Doglioni et al.
Fig. 6 Passive thrust failure surface when cohesion 6¼ 0
where
Fig. 7 Passive thrust failure surface as function of cohesion
qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
Rn ¼ so;n sin2 f þ c2 cos2 f þ 2so;n csinfcosf (18)
Then, the inclination of the passive failure surface could

be evaluated for each layer as:
in ¼ tan1 ½ðtF;n tP;n Þ=ðsP;n sF;n Þ (19)
Similarly, the passive strength at the toe of the landslide

can be derived by the (9, 10, 11, and 12) to each layer, as
shown by Fig. 6 and making a vector sum of the forces
evaluated for each layer.
Application of the Model
The described procedure is used to calculate the shape of the

passive failure surface for different values of shear strength Fig. 8 Passive thrust failure surface as function of friction angle
parameters (cohesion and friction angle, Figs. 7 and 8) and
slope in a sort of sensitivity analysis.
Figure 7 shows the passive toe thrust shear surface for a Acquara Vadoncello Case Study
slope of 5 , a unit weigth of 21 kN/m3, a friction angle of 5
and cohesion values growing from 2 to 50 kPa. The shape of Model validation is done on the case study of Acquara-
the failure surface is really sensitive to the variations of Vadoncello landslide in Southern Italy. Here passive failure
cohesion. In particular the lowest is the cohesion value the thrust surface at the toe of a landslide was identified and
longer and bow shaped is the slip surface at the toe. reconstructed in details by a large campaign of in situ surveys
For the same slope, Fig. 8 shows the same slope whereas by Savage and Wasowski (2006). In particular, they
a constant cohesion value of 5 kPa and different values of reconstructed three different compression thrust failure
friction angle from 5 to 15 are assumed. surfaces at the toe of the landslide. They interpreted that
The results show that the passive failure surface is really passive thrust failure surfaces by the flow plastic model of
long and bow shaped for low values of friction angle. Then, Savage and Smith (1986). For their calculation, they assumed
the form of the passive failure surface is really sensitive to a unit weight of 21 kN/m3, a cohesion of 2.86 kPa, a friction
low values of friction angle. angle of 5 , a slope angle of 5 and values of the pore pressure
Looking at shear strength parameters, the general result is parameters Ru ¼ 0.1 0.01. The assumed values can be con-
that high values of shear strength parameters return shorter sidered quite reliable, since consistent with the results if in situ
and steeper surfaces. survey and laboratory tests (Savage and Wasowski 2006).
A Simple Model for Passive Failure Compression Structure at the Toe of Landslide 181
Fig. 9 Failure surface calculated

according to the proposed model
(red line) compared with the
results of in situ survey (dots) and
with the surface calculated
according to the model of Savage
and Smith (1986)
The proposed model was applied to this case history interesting results highly fitting to the results of in situ
using the values suggested by Savage and Wasowski surveys.
(2006). The results obtained by the proposed model are The result obtained by the presented model agrees
here compared with the results, obtained from in situ survey with that obtained by Savage and Smith (1986) model,
and on the base of Savage and Smith model as reported in but using a completely different and simpler approach.
Savage and Wasowski (2006) (Fig. 9). It is noteworthy that Differently from Savage and Smith model, the proposed
the calculated failure surface fits quite well the surface approach can be implemented on a simple spreadsheet
deriving from in situ surveys as well as that by Savage and without a finite element approach, immediately returning
Wasowski. the results. The proposed model made it also possible to
evaluate the contribution of the passive toe thrust to the
Conclusions stability of the instable masses.
A simple analytical model for the evaluation of the com-
pressive passive failure surface at the toe of landslide References
modelled by infinite slope method is here presented.
The mechanical behaviour of soil is modelled according Lancellotta R (2004) Geotecnica. Zanichelli Ed, Bologna, 496p. ISBN
to a Mohr Coulomb failure criterion. 8808076539
The model is theoretically based but quite simple, then it Savage WZ, Smith WK (1986) A model for the plastic flow of
landslides: U.S. Geological Survey professional paper 1385
can be implemented into a spread-sheet and it is a useful Savage W, Wasowski J (2006) A plastic flow model for the Acquara-
support to understand the complex subsurface geometry of Valdoncello landslide in Senerchia, Southern Italy. Eng Geol
the toe passive thrust observed in landslides and to calculate 83:4–21
the shear strength at the toe of the landslide. The model Sdao F, Simeone V (1996) Fasi di attivazione e maturità
geomorfologica di due frane tipo colata nei pressi di
shows that the shape of the passive thrust failure surface is Campomaggiore vecchio (Basilicata). Geol Appl e Idrogeol
really sensitive to shear strength parameters. 21:153–168
It can be a useful tool to understand landslide Sdao F, Simeone V (1997) Activation phases and geomorphic maturity
behaviours and mechanisms and also to estimate the stress of two earth-flow slides in Southern Italy. Landslide News 10:25–27
Simeone V, Sdao F (2002) Modelling of the geomorphic characteristics
state at landslide toe, besides the contribution of the toe to of the toe accumulation zone of earth-flow landslides. In:
the safety of prevailing longitudinal dimension landslide. Proceedings of 9th congress of the international association for
To validate the model, it was used to interpret the engineering geology and environment (IAEG 2002), Durban,
results obtained in a case study, where passive failure 16–20 Sept 2002, pp 1360–1367
Urciuoli G (2002) Strains preceding failure in infinite slopes. Int J
surface at the toe of the landslide have been reconstructed Geomech 2(1):93–112
on the base of a detailed in situ survey, returning really
Recovery of Strength Along Shear Surfaces
in Clay Soils
Angelo Doglioni and Vincenzo Simeone
Abstract
The residual shear strength as operative strength along the shear surface is commonly used
for analyzing the stability of reactivated landslides. On this base, it is not possible to have
brittle failure or progressive failure mechanisms. In fact, these kinds of phenomena claim
for a recovery of strength along the shear surface, which is due to ageing effects during the
quiescence time. Several tests on clay samples were performed using Bromhead ring shear
apparatus to verify the presence of shear strength recovery. Tests showed that recovery
of strength are present along the shear surface. Moreover, they proved the stress-stain
behavior is characterized by a brittle failure after that the strength, along the shear surface,
falls again to the residual value.
Keywords
Residual strength Ageing Recovery of strength Shear surface Quiescent
landslide Clayey soils Thixotropy
Introduction surface of landslide during the quiescence time to explain

how reactivation can occur with brittle o progressive failure.
The study of stability of reactivated landslides is usually Then, it is possible also to explain how landslide close to
based on the assumption that along the failure surface the limit equilibrium conditions can be stable for long periods,
operative strength is the residual one or a near value. In fact, without being subject to continuous reactivation (Simeone
during previous landslide movements, the strength along the 1993a, b).
shear surface falls down from the peak value to the residual Recovery of strength along shear surface also contributes
one (Skempton 1964, 1985). to explain the observed delay (D’Elia et al. 1985; Cotecchia
According to this assumption, the reactivation of quies- 1986) during the reactivation of old landslide in clayey
cent landslides does not allow for progressive failures, since materials after seismic shocks. In fact the delay can be
the minimum shear strength shows along the whole shear considered as the time necessary to the development of
surface. So it is not possible that reactivation of quiescent progressive failure.
landslides can occur with brittle failure and progressive It is well know that remolded clay left quiescent is subject
failure mechanisms. In fact, along all the shearing surfaces to an increment of stiffness and shear strength with time
the minimum strength has just been reached. It is thus (Skempton and Northey 1952). This also happens if clay
necessary to assume a recovery of strength along the shear material is not subject to variation of volume or water
content.
When residual strength conditions occur, clayey particles
A. Doglioni (*) V. Simeone assume an iso-oriented texture, corresponding to the lower
Engineering Faculty of Taranto, Technical University of Bari, viale del value of shear strength (Skempton 1964, 1985; Lupini et al.
Turismo 8, Taranto, Italy
+390994733204
1981). Therefore, it is necessary to suppose a structural
e-mail: [email protected] rearrangement during the quiescence period, to get recovery

184 A. Doglioni and V. Simeone
of strength along shear surfaces where residual strength has Samples were prepared using remolded clay mixed with
been reached. water, till the complete destruction of the original texture, to
Along a shear surface in clay soils, when the landslide obtain a slurry with a consistency index of about 0.5. This
movement stops, clay particles can flocculate into a more consistency is a good compromise between the workable
stable different texture with a low energy level. Flocculating exigencies of samples and the problem of avoiding excessive
clay particles evolve into a different structure, which can extrusion of material from the apparatus during the loading
have a higher value of shear strength. This allows for a phase. The normal load was gradually increased to reach the
recovery of strength along the shear surface. During the chosen value. The sample is kept under vertical load for
quiescence period arrangements of clay particles evolve 2 or 3 days. Either during its consolidation and during its
toward the minimum energy texture, which can be different shearing, the sample should always be completely saturated
with respect to the minimum strength texture, as function of and covered with water to avoid its drying. The rotation is
the clay mineralogy and of the chemistry of pore water. started with the lowest velocity enabled by the apparatus
The phenomenon of shear strength and stiffness increas- (0.024 mm/min in all the tests) and the sample has a thick-
ing with time is broadly defined as thixotropy by modern ness of 5 mm and is drained at the top and at the bottom, so
scientific literature. However, the word “age hardening” that the test can be considered fully drained and “rate
should be strictly used (Mitchell 1961; Schmertmann 1992) effects” can be avoided. After a sufficient shear movement
to describe this phenomenon. This is typical of many soils, to assure (under drained conditions) the reaching of a quite
when they have been reworked and then left resting. constant strength (residual strength or a near value) the test is
During their experimental study on thixotropic phenom- stopped and the sample left in the shearing apparatus.
ena, Osipov et al. (1984) observed recovery of strength at During this phase, the loading rings were not unloaded, so
constant volume and water content conditions in diluted that the sample kept a stress status closer to that in which it
suspensions of clay; comparing the value with the lowest finds itself during the shearing phase. This is a procedure,
strength measured when the system undergoes vibrations. which simulates what happens along the shear surface of a
Simeone (1993a, b, 2007) and Guerricchio et al. (1996) landslide movement when the movement ends. In this par-
using a Bromhead ring shear apparatus observed recovery ticular scenario, the normal stress remains as uniform as the
along shear surface in clayey soil for different clays from shear stress. After quiescence time of different durations, the
South Italy. Also Gibo et al. (2002), Angeli and Gasparetto test is restarted without modifying the frequency of measur-
(2003), Angeli et al. (2004), and Carrubba and Del Fabbro ing the strength along the shearing surface, to evaluate the
(2006) got similar behaviours in clayey samples. stress–strain behavior of clay. The test is continued until a
Aim of this work is to better evaluate this phenomenon by steady value of the shearing strength is reached again. Then,
mean of laboratory tests as well as its main variables. the shear movement is stopped again for a different time and
the test is repeated with the same approach. Then, it is
possible to evaluate the recovery of strength, related to
different periods of shear movement stop.
Testing Procedure
Several tests on clay samples were performed using

Bromhead ring shear apparatus (1979) at the Engineering Test Result
Geology laboratory of the Engineering Faculty of Taranto of
the Technical University of Bari (Italy). The choice of this The test showed that recoveries of strength are present along
apparatus is related to the possibility of quite well simulating the shear surface and that the stress-stain behavior is
what happens, along the shear surface of a landslide, during characterized by a brittle failure, after that the strength
a quiescence period, where the stresses are constant and along the shear surface falls again to the residual value
there is no movement. This simulation scenario is arranged until there is movement along the shear surface (Fig. 1).
by not releasing the dynamometrical rings during the break The recovery of strength is formulated as a ratio between
in the shear processes, and then leaving the sample in a stress the residual shear strength and the increase of strength
state close to that, which it finds by itself during the shear obtained during the quiescence time, Fig. 2. The amount of
processes. shear strength recovery is function of the quiescence time
Tests were undergone, using Italian marine blue clay and it linearly grows up with the logarithm of the quiescence
samples of medium plasticity (LL ¼ 45 %; FC ¼ 42 %). time according to the previous results by Simeone (1993a, b,
Moreover, different values of the normal stress were 2007).
assumed, a long leaching process varied pore water It is noteworthy that during the stop phases, for all the
chemistry. tests, no relevant settlements have been measured. It means
Recovery of Strength Along Shear Surfaces in Clay Soils 185
Fig. 1 Recovery of strength 60

measured for a sample of blue
clay 50
40
Stop 30' Stop 1740'
30 Stop 185'
Stop 270'
Stop 5'
Stop 3765' Stop 4170'
20
Stop 15'
Stop 70 '
10 Stop 840'
Stop 390'
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Displacement δ (mm)
25
20,28
20 17,7
16,48
14,96
Δτ/τres (%)
15 13,48
13,13
10,67
9,35 9,53
10
5,93
5 3,7
0
1 10 100 1000 10000
log t (min) Fig. 3 Recovery of strength for a blue clay for different values of the
normal stress
Fig. 2 Increase of the percentage strength recovery measured
strongly conditioned. Moreover, the influence of the electro-
that it is not possible to depute the obtained recovery of chemical forces, that made it possible the particles
strength to volume changes of the sample. It is not assum- rearrangements, has a lower influence.
able to attribute the obtained recovery of strength to density It was also investigated the stress–strain behavior after
increases or to particle arrangements, due to spacing reduc- each stop to obtain information on the brittleness and the
tion among the particles and related to secondary compres- stiffness of the material along the shear surface. The tests
sion (i.e. the solid skeleton distortion under a constant returned that for low normal stress (30 kPa) the stress-stain
effective stress). This confirms the thixotropic-ageing nature behavior is characterized by high brittleness and stiffness
of the phenomenon. Significant recovery of strength was (Fig. 4).
obtained even after very short stop times (order of minutes) For high normal stress (750 kPa) both brittleness and the
of the shear. stiffness are lower (Fig. 5).
Different specific aspects of the recovery of strength were The duration of the quiescence period does not relevantly
analyzed with different tests. At first, the influence of the affect stiffness and the stress–strain behaviour. Figure 6
normal stresses was analyzed, to consider the influence shows a comparison of the stress–strain behavior after a
of normal stress on the amount of the recovery of strength stop of about 900 min for different values of the normal
(Fig. 3). stress. Stiffness and brittleness are conditioned by the same
The blue clay was tested with three different value of the factors. For low normal stress, the stiffness and the brittle-
normal stress. Three values of the normal stress were ness are higher. When normal stress increase there is a
assumed, corresponding to surficial medium and deep-seated decrease of stiffness and of brittleness.
landslides: 30, 100 and 750 kPa. The amount of the recovery Finally the effect of the chemistry of pore water fluid is
of strength is expressed as a function the normal stress. Test investigated. The clay used for the tests is a marine clay with
results show that the amount of strength recovery is much a high content of salt and carbonates. The clay sample
more severe for low normal stress, while it is quite low when experienced prolonged leaching procedure, to remove part
the normal stress is high. of the salt and of carbonate that can relevantly affect the
This is probably due to the fact that recovery of strength is residual shear strength (Di Maio 1996; Hawkins and
related to the rearrangement of the particles. This is less easy Mc Donald 1992). The stress–strain behavior of the normal
at high normal stress and then the system of the particles is clay sample was compared with the behavior of leached clay
Fig. 4 Stress strain behaviour for different stop period for a normal
stress of 30 kPa
Fig. 6 Effects of normal load on stiffness and brittleness behaviour for

a blue clay. Quiescence period is 900 min for each test
Fig. 5 Stress–strain behaviour for different stop periods for a normal

stress of 750 kPa
sample (Fig. 7). The leaching procedure seems to have a

really small influence on the amount of strength recovery
and on the stiffness of the material after the stop, even if
causing a relevant decrease of brittleness.
The final investigated aspect is the influence of plasticity Fig. 7 Effects of leaching processes on shear strength recovery and on
of the involved clay. A sample of bentonitic clay stiffness and brittleness
(LL ¼ 192) is accounted, which was tested according to
the aforementioned procedure. The percentage of recovery Tests results proved the amount of recovery of
of strength obtained is higher than that obtained for the blue strength in percentage increases with the time of quies-
clay of medium plasticity. Figure 8 shows a comparison cence according to a linear relation. The amount of the
between the percentage of shear strength recovery of blue recovery of strength is strongly related to the normal
and bentonitic clay, obtained at the same normal stress stress. The higher is the normal stress the lower is the
(750 kPa). recovery of strength. The amount of the strength recov-
It confirms the assumption of high percentage of shear ery increases with the plasticity of clay and in some way
strength recovery for a high plasticity clay. also with the salt content in pore water. These kind of
behaviour are likely due to the fact that this kind of
Conclusion phenomenon is related to the electrochemical forces
The presented study is aimed at verifying the existence of between clay particles and pore water. When electro-
recovery of strength along shear surface in clayey soils chemical forces have a more relevant role than mechan-
and to analyse some variables affecting this phenomena ical forces (low normal stress; high plasticity clay) for
and the brittleness consequence of these recovery of the interaction between clay particles, there is higher
strength. On this premise, it is possible to justify the recovery of strength. In fact, clay particles have a higher
reason why often reactivation happens according a brittle possibility in the rearrangements of their texture of
or progressive failure, which cannot normally occur if obtaining stiffer structures. When the mechanical forces
along the whole failure surface the only available between clay particles are higher than electrochemical
strength is the residual one. one (high normal stresses, leached clays, low plasticity
clay) it is difficult to a have good clay particle
rearrangements and recovery of strength are less relevant.
Recovery of Strength Along Shear Surfaces in Clay Soils 187
Fig. 8 Recovery of strength along the shear surface for soil with different plasticity for a normal stress of 750 kPa
Analysing stress–strain behaviour after the recovery of D’Elia B, Esu F, Pellegrino A Pescatore TS (1985) Some effects on
strength, stiffness and brittleness are conditioned by the natural slope stability induced by the 1980 Italian earthquake.
In: Proceedings of the 11th international conference on soil
same variables. For low normal stress the stiffness and the mechanics and foundation engineering, vol 4, San Francisco, pp
brittleness are higher. When normal stress increase there 1943–1950
is a decrease of stiffness and of brittleness. The duration Di Maio C (1996) The influence of pore fluid composition on the
of the quiescence period does not significantly affect residual shear strength of some natural clayey soils. In: Proceedings
of the 7th international symposium on landslides, vol 2. Balkerma,
stiffness and brittleness. Trondheim, pp 1189–1194
Gibo S, Egashira K, Ohtsubo M, Nakamura S (2002) Strength recovery
Acknowledgments We wish to thank Mr. Valerio Del Prete and from residual state in reactivated landslide. Geotechnique
Mr. Emanuele Fontana, who during their master Thesis work at the 52(9):683–686
Engineering Faculty of Taranto, cooperated to arrange the tests Guerricchio A, Melidoro G, Simeone V (1996) Le grandi frane di
presented by this work. Petacciato sul versante costiero adriatico (Molise). Mem Soc Geol
Ital 51:607–632
Hawkins AB, Mc Donald C (1992) Decalcification and residual shear
strength reduction in Fuller’s Earth clay. Geotechnique
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vol 2, Sorrento, 11–13 May 2003, pp 151–158 Mech Found Div Proc ASCE 126(1):1586–1620
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mechanisms in intermittently moving slides. In: Proceedings of associated with thixotropic phenomena in clay soils. Geotechnique
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Carrubba P, Del Fabbro M (2006) Resistenza residua alla riattivazione soils, where residual strength has been reached as a consequence of
del flysch di Cormons. Rivista Italiana di Geotecnica 1:28–51 previous movements, In: 7th young geotechnical engineer’s confer-
Cotecchia V (1986) Ground deformations and slope instability pro- ence, Böblingen,7–11 Sept 1993, pp 1.34–1.36
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Geotechnique 14(2):77–101
Protection from High Energy Impacts Using
Reinforced Soil Embankments: Design
and Experiences
Alberto Grimod and Giorgio Giacchetti
Abstract
It is nowadays evident the remarkable increase of natural events such as landslides and rock
falls. This paper describes and shows how the ground reinforced soil embankments
represent an efficient solution for the mitigation of the rockfall related damage. The
advantages of these types of construction are that they can resist multiple impacts and
their downslope deformation is negligible. This means they can safely be placed close to
infrastructure and moreover, they are environmental friendly. In the last few years the
Polytechnic of Turin and Officine Maccaferri S.p.A. has developed a new approach to
design reinforced soil embankments used for rockfall applications. This approach is based
on FEM modelling, full-scale tests results and real experiences utilized to validate the
numerical analysis and modelling.
Keywords
Rockfall Rockfall embankment High energy impact
Preliminary Remarks This paper will analyse this new design method in order
to define the most suitable geometry for a reinforced soil
Rockfall embankments are commonly used to stop high structure based on the energy and the trajectory parameters
energy rockfall phenomena which could damage of the falling rocks.
infrastructures, buildings, inhabited areas, etc.
The embankments built all around the world are made in
different ways: by the simple compaction of soil, from gabions,
from huge stones, but by far the most effective and reliable
Reinforced Soil Embankments
method is using reinforced soil, which represent a very good
The rockfall embankments are made as ordinary reinforced
solution from both technical and economical point of view.
soil structures (RSS).
In spite of the large amount of installations already made,
From a geotechnical point of view RSSs are composed of
only in the last few years a new approach has been
soil and reinforcing elements which help to distribute tensile
established to design these reinforced soil embankments
using the ultimate limit state and the serviceability limit stresses. These reinforcements are normally located horizon-
state philosophy. tally during the installation phases, and they are wrapped at
the edges of the structure to enclose layers of soil. The soil is
compacted in layers of nominal 300–350 mm thickness.
In this way, the stresses on the RSS, due to the increasing
A. Grimod (*) of loads, are absorbed by the tensile strength of the
Alpigeo Consultant, Via Barozzi 45, Belluno, Italy
e-mail: [email protected] reinforcements which are mobilized through the friction
with the soil. At the same time, the compacted soil can resist
G. Giacchetti
Maccaferri Technical Department, Bologna, Italy to the compression stresses linked the vertical loads. Rockfall

190 A. Grimod and G. Giacchetti
Table 1 Type of reinforces used on the RSS

Reinforce name Typical tensile strength Picture
Geogrid Up to 1,300 kN/m
Geotextile Up to 250 kN/m
Double twist wire mesh Up to 60 kN/m
embankments are bi-facial reinforced soil structures with a

vegetative or a gabion external facing (Table 1).
The most important advantages associated with
reinforced soil embankments, are listed below:
1. The foundation surface is reduced because the facade
inclination increases from 30 –40 to 65 –90 (Fig. 1);
2. The amount of soil necessary to build the reinforced
embankment is around 2–2.5 times less than the volume Fig. 1 The block has not enough rotational energy to overcome the
embankment because reinforced embankments have 65 –90 mountain
used for normal soil embankment;
side face inclination
3. The risk that a boulder overcomes the embankment after
the impact is reduced because of the high inclination of
the mountain side facing, as shown in Fig. 2
Method (FEM), and real case histories, is able to give a tool
that can be easily used by the designer of these structures as a
guide line.
The Researches The full-scale tests were carried out by crashing concrete
blocks, with variable mass (from 5,000 to 8,700 kg) and a
Polytechnic of Turin, supported by Officine Maccaferri speed, measured at the impact time, of 31 m/s, against
S.p.A., has developed a simple design procedure to size the embankments built by sand and gravel and reinforced with
geometry of the rockfall embankments. polymeric geogrids.
This method is based on a research that, by utilizing full- The dimensions of the tested ground reinforced
scale tests, numerical modelling using the Finite Element embankments were: height ¼ 4.2 m, base foundation ¼ 5.0 m,
Protection from High Energy Impacts Using Reinforced Soil Embankments 191
friction coefficient equal to 0.40 (soil friction angle tangent

reduced in a parametric way).
The simulations consider an embankment (height ¼ 6 m,
foundation width ¼ 6.30 m, facing inclination ¼ 67 –70 ,
distance between the reinforcements ¼ 75 cm) impacted by
a cubic mass which develops 5,400 kJ kinetic energy (mass
¼ 12,000 kg; speed ¼ 30 m/s) at 1.20 m from the toe of the
structure (Fig. 5).
F.E.M. modelling results show that the impact
consequences are limited only on the layers directly
involved in the impact, as already observed in the full-scale
tests.
The internal embankment area influenced by the block
impact is defined by the type of reinforcement. A truncated
Fig. 2 Effect on downslope side of the reinforced embankment cone shape is observable and it is planimetrycally
impacted during full-scale tests
constituted by an inclination angle c of around 45 (Fig. 6).
Moreover, it is possible to note that at the impact time the
facing inclination ¼ 67 and geogrids vertical distance ¼ kinetic energy of the block is dissipated in three different
0.60 m. ways:
These tests have shown that the impact of a block 1. 80–85 % of this energy is dissipated because of the
produces two main effects on the structure: the creation of creation of the hole in the mountain side: plastic
a hole in the upslope side, and the sliding on the downslope dissipation;
side of the strata, defined by the geogrids located close to the 2. 15–20 % of the kinetic energy is dissipated because of the
impact point. Table 2 shows the summary of the results of sliding on the downslope side of the layers involved in the
the full-scale tests: impact: friction dissipation;
The numerical analyses are used to know and to predict 3. Around 1 % is dissipated because of the settlement of the
the behaviour of the impacted embankments in a more grains of the soil in the impacted surface: elastic
economical way compared to the full-scale tests. dissipation.
They have been done, by the Polytechnic of Turin, with a It is possible to define the relationship between the impact
commercial code (ABACUS/Explicit), which use a 3D energy and the volume of the crater made by the block
Finite Element Method (F.E.M.) based on the “central dif- during its crash (Fig. 7). This connection is tightly linked
ference method” algorithm. With this tool all the dynamics to the type of reinforcement used, which defines a linear
aspects of the rock impact and their consequence on coefficient (k) (Fig. 8)
structures have been considered.
The models consider embankments composed of sand Ab d ¼ k Ecorrect (1)
and gravel reinforced by a metallic double twist wire mesh,
which is the typical reinforcement used on the Maccaferri where:
Embankment System, called Terramesh (Fig. 3 and 4). – Ab ¼ block area [m2];
During simulation the compacted soil was considered as a – d ¼ displacement of the block into the embankment [m];
perfect elasto-plastic material characterised by: density – k ¼ coefficient function of the reinforcement: inclination
21 kN/m3, Young’s modulus 110,000 kPa, Poisson’s ratio of the curve shown in Fig. 9;
0.25, drained friction angle 34 , drained cohesion 0 kPa, – Ecorrect ¼ block kinetic energy corrected taking into
flow stress ratio (ratio of the yield stress in triaxial tension account the plastic dissipation [kJ].
to the yield stress in triaxial compression) 0.78, dilatation Finally, numerical analyses have confirmed that the
angle 0 and yield stress 540 kPa. The presence of water blocks are not able to pass over the embankment, the only
was neglected. The different layers enclosed by the metal- critical situation is when the impact is at the top of the
lic reinforcements have been modelled as single elements, embankment.
and their contacts have been identified with frictional To validate the numerical analyses described above a
characteristics and a friction coefficient equal to 0.44 (soil back analysis on a real case history has been done. The
friction angle tangent reduced by 0.65, which is a reduction embankment taken into account was built in Cogne (Aosta
coefficient suggested in the Officine Maccaferri technical Valley-Italy) with Maccaferri Green Terramesh (GTM) and
notes-2005). Moreover, the friction interaction between the geogrids placed every 2.19 m (every 3 GTM layers), it is
soil and the block surface is characterized by a tangential composed of 14 layers 0.73 cm height at 65 ; its total height
Table 2 Full-scale test results Impact Number of Upslope max Downslope max
Test energy impacts displacement displacement
Test 2,500 kJ 1 0.60 m 0.17 m
1
Test 4,500 kJ 3 0.95 m 0.80 m
2 1.30 m 1.20 m
Collapse –
Fig. 3 Maccaferri Green Terramesh used to build a rockfall embank-

ment. The reinforcement is a double twist wire mesh
Fig. 5 Contours plot of the numerical analysis made on a Green
Terramesh embankment (Oggeri et al. 2009)
Fig. 6 Contour plot of the embankment area involved in the impact

Fig. 4 Model of the impact against the rockfall embankment made (plan view) (Oggeri et al. 2009)
with double twist wire mesh reinforcements (Oggeri et al. 2009)
During the modelling the soil has been analyzed consid-

is 10.22 m, the base width is 13.33 m and the top width is ering the Drucker-Prager law, because it was easier to define
3.81 m. it, knowing the Mohr-Coulomb friction angle and cohesion
The soil used belongs to A1, A2, A3, A2-4, A2-5 classes, (Table 3).
without elements with a diameter higher than 15 cm (CNR This rockfall embankment was impacted by a prismatic block
UNI 10006:1963; UNI EN ISO 14688-1:2003), and every (volume ¼ 6 m3; total mass ¼ 15 tons; velocity ¼ 20 m/s;
compacted 30 cm layers had a compaction grade no lower kinetic energy ¼ 3,000 kJ) which penetrated into the embank-
than 90 % of the Proctor Test (ASTM D 1557:2007). ment by around 70 cm (Fig. 10).
Table 3 Parameters values of the embankment soil used in the back

Total kinetic Energy of the block analysis. The Young’s modulus is variable because there were no tests
during the embankment construction (Oggeri et al. 2009)
4.00 Geotechnical parameter Value

Density [kg/m3] 1,900
3.50 Young’s modulus [kPa] 75,000; 90,000; 110,000
Poisson’s ratio [] 0.30
3.00 Mohr-Coulomb friction angle 35
Plastic dissipation (block Mohr-Coulomb drained cohesion [kPa] 0
2.50 penetration): 80%-85%
Drucker-Prager friction angle 55
[103 kJ]
Energy
Flow stress ratio [] 0.78

2.00 Friction dissipation (layer sliding): Yield stress [kPa] 540
10% -15%
1.50
1.00
0.50 Elastic dissipation (soil

constipation):~1%
0.00
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40
Time [s]
Impact
Fig. 7 Representation of the kinetic energy dissipation of the block

after the impact
Fig. 8 Linear relationship between energy and crater volume
Fig. 10 Block impacted against the GTM embankment and used on

the back analysis
Table 4 Maximum values of penetration and downslope sliding for the

3 different values of Young’s modulus considered (Oggeri et al. 2009)
Downslope
Young’s modulus [kPa] Upslope penetration [m] sliding [m]
75,000 0.74 0.17
90,000 0.71 0.07
Fig. 9 Typical cross section of the rockfall embankment build in 110,000 0.62 0.17
Cogne (Aosta Valley-Ita) which is used for the back analysis
From the analysis of this impact it was possible to define,

in terms of the Young’s modulus, the penetration of the contrary, this parameter influences the dimension and the
block into the structure and the sliding of the impacted shape of the crater on the upslope side: the penetration can
reinforced layers on the downslope side (Table 4). be reduced by improving the soil settlement of the structure.
As shown in the table above, the downslope sliding does In any case, it is important to highlight that this parameter
not depend on the Young’s modulus of the soil. On the is only conventional, because the phenomena during the
impact are neither elastic or linear. Moreover, the values

ranges are limited both for the mountain side penetration
60
(from 0.62 to 0.74 m) and the valley side sliding (from 0.07
to 0.17 m).
45
These results reflect the reality: the analysis method is
technically-effective.
30
15
The Rockfall Embankment Design Method
0
0 15 30 45 60 75
The design of any rockfall embankment requires the follow-
ing checks and analyses: Fig. 11 Example of a rockfall simulation (software RocFall,
1. Definition of the rock falling data; RocScience Inc.)
2. Definition of the geometry of the embankment;
3. Structural stability checks.
The parameters of blocks during the falls can be found
with commercial software that are able to simulate their
trajectories along the slope.
These tools give the possibility to find the dynamic
parameter, by knowing the type of soil and the topography
of the slope, the mass of the unstable rocks and their
positions. Kinetic energy, velocity and height of the block
during its falling motion can be calculated at every point of
the analyzed slope, also where the embankment will be built
(Fig. 11).
By using these parameters it is possible to size the embank-
ment through the design guideline published by the Polytech- Fig. 12 Simplified cross section of the embankment geometry after the
nic of Turin and Officine Maccaferri S.p.A., according to block impact
the researches described in the previous chapter.
ULS is determined by evaluating the static stability of the
The stability checks during the design rock impact have
structure after the deformation, by simple equilibrium eval-
to guarantee that the structure does not collapse because of
uation: the projection of Block A (see Fig. 13) centre of mass
the effects of the block penetration on the upslope side and/
has to be inside the front support of Block C (see Fig. 13), or
or because of the sliding on the downslope side of the
the projection of the Block B (see Fig. 13) centre of mass has
reinforced layers involved in the impact.
to stay in equilibrium with Block A. The design at Ultimate
The design can be done at Ultimate Limit State (ULS) or
Limit State does not allow the embankment to stop other
at Serviceability Limit State (SLS) to define the geometry of
blocks with the designed energy level.
the structure able to stop the design rock masses.
SLS conditions have to permit an easy maintenance of
The maximum impact energy absorbed by the embank-
the structure, the mountain side penetration and the valley
ment (Eembankment), without any collapse, can be calculated
side displacement have to be imposed. In this way, the
taking into account the downslope sliding of the impacted
embankment will be able to stop multiple design blocks
layers (x) and the penetration of the block into the structure
impacts. Generally, the parameters mentioned above
(d) (Fig. 12).
should not exceed the following values:
– Upslope penetration: lower than 20 % of the embank-
Ee ment thickness at the impact height and not higher than
Ed 0 (2)
ge 50–70 cm. For larger displacement it is difficult to repair
the structure.
where: – Downslope sliding: lower than 30–40 cm.
– Ed ¼ design energy, calculated with the trajectory Finally, the height of the embankment has to be defined
evaluation; considering that, as discussed in the previous chapter, blocks
– Ee ¼ energy level that can be dissipated by the can overpass the structure only if they impact at the top of the
embankment; embankment; this problem can be solved by introducing an
– ge ¼ safety factor (>1.0). adequate safety factor:
Fig. 14 Embankments built along the SR 47 (291 m and 50 m long)
Fig. 13 Internal and global stability check of the embankment

(software MacStaRS W, Maccaferri)
hi
hd 0 (3)
gh
where:
– hd ¼ design height, calculated with the trajectory
evaluation;
– hi ¼ embankment interception height;
– gi ¼ safety factor (>1.0).
Finally, the last step of the embankment design
considers the analysis of the embankment from a statical
point of view: the global and the internal stability checks
have to be done.
These analyses are realized utilizing specific software
generally used for the design of Reinforced Soil Structure
(RSS) and able to define the type of reinforcement according
to the size of the structure and the type of filling ground. For
embankments designed with Green Terramesh, it is appropri- Fig. 15 Embankments built along the SR 47 (291 m and 50 m long)
ate to use designed parameters developed by Maccaferri. and fill with stones, debris and trees
These checks verify, both in the static and seismic collapse of large blocks. One of these blocks was used by
conditions, that the designed structure is stable (Fig. 14) the Polytechnic of Turin for the back analysis described in
and it does not provoke negatives effects on the global the previous chapter “The researches” (see Fig. 11).
stability of the entire slope (Fig. 15) which is overloaded In these last 4 years other rock falls, landslides and
by a new load. avalanches have completely fill the 50 m long embankment
on the mountain side with stones, soil, debris and tree
trunks. These events have given the possibility to under-
Experience: Cogne Case History stand that these structures are able to protect structures and
infrastructures not only from the high energy rock fall
The 5th June 2007 large blocks (larger than 30 m3) impacted impacts but also from soil landslides, avalanches and debris
on the regional road Aymavilles-Cogne (SR 47) in locality flows.
Pont Laval. The road was closed, and the town of Cogne was
isolated for few days.
Aosta Valley municipality has decided to build two rock-
Reference
fall embankments above the SR 47 road, with Maccaferri
Terramesh method. The height of both structures is 10.22 m Oggeri C, Peila D, Ronco C (2009) Analisi numerica del comportamento
and their lengths are respectively 291 and 50 m. di rilevati paramassi in terra rinforzata. Relazione finale
After a few months from the end of the construction, the
smallest embankment was impacted by a landslide with the
Quantitative Evaluation of Roughness
with a 2D Digital Instrument
Fabrizio Mazza, Davide Brambilla, Laura Longoni, Paolo Mazzoleni,

Monica Papini, and Emanuele Zappa
Abstract
Roughness of discontinuities, when clean and unfilled, has a significant impact on rock joint
mechanical behaviour and, as a consequence, of rock masses. The need to solve ambitious
rock mechanics problems encouraged research to study shear mechanism acting at the joint
level and to produce sound models to reproduce it. In this framework, roughness measure-
ment allows to gather information about shear strength of rock joints at an acceptable cost.
A brief summary of published approaches and parameters for quantitative roughness
evaluation is presented. Then, measures taken on rock samples extracted in a test site
placed in the nearby of Esino Lario, 60 km north of Milan, are shown and discussed. The
device used on-site to obtain digital replicas of profiles is a laser-camera profilometer,
developed in the Department of Mechanical Engineering of the Politecnico di Milano. This
device, combining a digital camera and a laser source, uses the principle of laser triangula-
tion to extract a maximum of 746 points/profile. Numerical coordinates obtained by rock
joint profiles are submitted to a Matlab® script which computes geometric parameters.
Statistical analysis of gathered data was used to define a minimum number of measures
that have to be used to determine roughness of a joint set.
Keywords
Roughness Shear strength Joints Rock mass
tunnelling, mining, design of dam foundations and nuclear

Introduction waste disposal facilities. The high complexity of mechani-
cal interactions acting on the two surfaces of joints, and the
Rock mass is a complex natural material in which coupled effects with temperature, water circulation and
discontinuities of different geological nature disconnect chemical attack makes joint behaviour almost impossible
portions of intact rock. A full understanding of its hydro- to be reproducible by numerical or physical models. As a
mechanical behavior is strategic for many engineering consequence, since the beginning of intense research activ-
applications like stability assessment of rock slopes, ity in this field empirical models have been the main target.
However such models are not exactly black boxes in which
input data are somehow transformed into the output,
F. Mazza (*) D. Brambilla L. Longoni M. Papini but rely on simplification of actual physical mechanisms.
Department of Environmental Hydraulical, Infrastructural and The simplest roughness model is the famous Mohr-
Surveying Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, P.zza L. Da Vinci 32, Coulomb law, in which shear strength is provided by
Milan, Italy cohesion, c, normal load acting on the discontinuity, sn,
and basic shear angle, fb:
P. Mazzoleni E. Zappa
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Politecnico di Milano,
Via la Masa 1, Milan, Italy

198 F. Mazza et al.
tp ¼ c þ sn tanðfb Þ (1) With the development of rock mechanics a method to

characterize rock joint roughness with quantitative measures
Patton criterion (Patton 1966), specifically developed for was becoming more and more needed. Digital instruments
rock joints, was the first model that could take into account were found to be an opportunity to measure roughness in a
roughness of discontinuities. The two relations describing quantitative manner. At the beginning these instruments were
shear resistance (2 and 3), are similar to Mohr-Coulomb used to compute JRC quantitatively. A lot of parameters and
law, with additional terms representing the inclination angle relations have been proposed to assure this task, then empiri-
of asperities, i, the residual friction angle, fr, and the apparent cal relations where developed to compute JRC starting from
joint cohesion, cj. Patton model in fact reproduces the shear these parameters (Tse and Cruden 1979; Hong et al. 2008).
resistance of an idealized rock joint in which all the asperities Some of these relations have been developed by regression
have the same inclination angle. The model is bilinear: for low analysis on the ten reference profiles published by Barton
normal loads (2) the shear resistance is provided by both basic (1973) and, in the authors’ opinion, their validity is question-
friction angle, fb, and inclination of asperities, i, then, for high able for two reasons: (1) standard profiles represent “typical”
confinement (3), asperities are supposed to break up and only profiles of rock samples for which JRC was computed in back
residual friction angle, fr, and apparent joint cohesion, cj, analysis, but there’s no way to know how well they represent
provide further resistance. Obviously this model is too coarse roughness features of the surfaces; (2) ten profiles are a very
to describe accurately the complex behaviour of real rock little database to calibrate regression curves that should be
joints, which is determined by the presence of asperities used to compute JRC for very different situations (different
with different shapes and inclinations. rocks, different applied stresses, etc.). Another huge problem,
that affects both relation calibrated on reference profiles and
tp ¼ sn tanðfb þ iÞ (2) those obtained after test campaigns, is that usually
configurations of the measuring systems have not been
tr ¼ cj þ sn tanðfr Þ (3) specified, despite the great sensitivity parameters exhibit to
variations of resolution and base length. Some of the
In Barton-Bandis model ([4], Barton 1973; Barton and parameters proposed over the years to assign a value to
Choubey 1978) roughness of discontinuities is described by roughness are: root-mean square (RMS), RMS of the first
the joint roughness coefficient (JRC), while the ratio derivative (Z2), RMS of the second derivative (Z3), rough-
between joint compressive strength (JCS) and applied nor- ness profile index (RP), fractal dimension (D), range and sill
mal stress measures the intensity of applied stresses on the of the semivariogram, threshold deep angle (y*). A detailed
joint walls. JRC is the roughness parameter that has description of these quantities can be found in Hong et al.
undergone the greatest diffusion among practitioners and it (2008) and in Kulatilake et al. (2006). Among quantitative
constitutes the base of the ISRM suggested method for roughness evaluation methods it is mandatory to make a
roughness quantification (ISRM 1978). It can be obtained distinction between 3D and 2D approaches: while the former
by back analysis from shear tests or, more easily, by geo- guarantees a complete description of joint wall geometry, the
metric features of the surface. In this second approach, that is latter has the advantage of relying on easy low-cost measuring
the most interesting for the aim of this work, JRC parameter systems and simple data processing.
can be computed in two different manners: (1) by comparing Qualitative measures, because of their nature, are prone
sketch of profiles of the surface with reference ones; (2) by to be biased and imprecise (Beer et al. 2002); on the other
measuring the maximum difference in height from a rigid hand even quantitative parameters can provide variable
rod to the rock joint surface, and then analyzing the maxi- results because: (1) the choice of measuring system configu-
mum measured distance with the aid of an abacus. The ration (resolution and base length) influences the results;
interesting feature of Barton method is that in can take (2) roughness is subjected to spatial and directional
somehow in consideration complex features of rock surface variability. Despite these open problems, if properly used
with a really simple method. On the other hand it is very quantitative methods are able to provide measures featuring
subjective, especially for the visual comparison approach, a higher degree of reliability with respect to qualitative ones.
and has some intrinsic problems (JRC should be a fully In the last ten years the object of research has moved from
geometric parameter, but in fact it changes if computed objective JRC evaluation accomplished through quantitative
with back analysis for different rocks with the same surface measure to the development of new joint models relying on
shape). morphological parameters showing an evident correlation
with shear strength of discontinuities (Lanaro and
Stephansson 2003; Lopez et al. 2003). Lopez et al. measured
JCS
tp ¼ sn tan fb þ JRC Log10 (4) roughness of fracture surface replicas before the execution of
sn experimental shear tests and then, by means of a multivariate
Quantitative Evaluation of Roughness with a 2D Digital Instrument 199
statistical regression analysis, identified the roughness param-

eter exhibiting the greater ability in describing joint shear
behaviour. Among tested roughness parameter Z4, a direction
dependent estimator, was the one containing the greatest level
of information.
A complete study of shearing mechanisms acting at rock
joints allowed Grasselli (Grasselli 2006) to observe that dam-
age was localized in those areas of the surface characterized
by the steepest inclination and oriented against the direction
of application of the shear stress. On the basis of these
observations Grasselli developed a new roughness parameter,
r, which is able to catch differences in roughness along
different directions. This parameter was then used as a base Fig. 1 Laser profilometer: (a) main geometric features; (b) examples
on which a new shear strength criterion for rock joints was of projected laser traces
developed. Grasselli’s criterion has been subjected to some
reviews that lead to its actual form (7).
Roughness parameter, r, is obtained as the ratio between
the maximum inclination angle of asperities opposing shear
direction, y*max, and the quantity (C + 1):
#max
r¼ (5)
cþ1
The parameter C is obtained by non-linear regression on

(6), where A0 is the percentage of area of the surface
opposed to shear direction and Ay* is the percentage of
area opposed to shear direction featuring steepness greater
than y*. In Grasselli’s model (7) peak shear strength is
computed taking into account rock tensile strength, st, and
an empirical constant, B ¼ 1.15. According to Tatone
Fig. 2 A measurement stage: the profile is instantaneously printed on
(Tatone and Grasselli 2010), Grasselli’s roughness parame- the netbook screen
ter can also be computed on 2D profiles by substituting areas
with lengths in the algorithm.
c composed by a camera, a laser source and a support structure
# max# (Fig. 1a). The laser has a wavelength of 635 nm (red), a power
L# ¼ L0 (6)
# max of 10 mW (class II-M) and a fan angle of 90 . We choose a
" # grayscale USB camera, equipped with a 1/300 CMOS sensor
rsn
9A0 st
(resolution 744 480 pixels) and 6 mm focal length optics.
tp ¼ 1 þ e sn tanðfb þ r B Þ (7) A CMOS sensor has been preferred to a CCD one, because of
its better behavior in acquiring the scenes characterized by
important brightness variations and because of lower cost.
The USB connection between the camera and the PC allows
a fast data transmission and a direct connection to the control
Materials and Methods PC; in this work an Asus EEE netbook was used.
Figure 1b shows the profilometer working principle: the
Laser-Camera Profilometer laser source projects a linear pattern on the rock surface to be
measured, while the camera acquires the scene. On acquired
The goal of the laser-camera profilometer is to obtain the images the laser line appears as a bright stripe on dark
shape of the surface of the rock along linear profiles. The background.
profilometer was designed to obtain a measuring range of Analyzing the trend of the laser line on the image it is
about 200 mm and a resolution of 0.1 mm, in order to possible, after proper calibration, to measure the shape of the
guarantee at least the same measuring range and accuracy of object section illuminated by the laser. In this way the
a traditional Barton comb. The hardware of the profilometer is profilometer measures the position in space of each point
200 F. Mazza et al.
of the intersection between the laser and the rock surface below the surface (marked with letter C) and some metres
(Fig. 2). below the surface (marked with letter B). Along each rock
surface specimen we measured roughness on parallel profiles
spaced with a constant offset of about 3 mm.
Choice of a Roughness Parameter
The output provided by the profilometer is a collection of Sufficient Number of Measurements

(x,y) coordinates of points belonging to a scanned profile.
These data have to be submitted to a process of analysis to The opportunity of taking quantitative measures of roughness
produce values of roughness. Among all different roughness has highlighted a new problem: spatial variability of rough-
parameters, the choice fell on Tatone’s one (Tatone and ness. Even on an apparently homogenous natural rock surface,
Grasselli 2010), which takes into account features of the values of roughness can exhibit oscillations from one region
geometry that should be closely related to roughness to another. It is then straightforward to collect a certain
behaviour, it is direction dependent and it doesn’t require number of measures and to use a central value estimator,
heavy computations to be extracted. Tatone proposed also a like the mean, to give a value to the roughness of the whole
formula for the computation of JRC values, but actually this surface. To make this estimation accurate enough, a minimum
formula was developed with a regression analysis on the base number of measurements have to be used: but how to know if
of the ten Barton standard profiles and, as it was outlined in the measurement is accurate enough? A first possible
the Introduction, such kind of relations are not fully approach consists in setting the minimum number of
reliable. Despite this, JRC obtained with Tatone’s relation measurements in correspondence of that number of measures
can be used as reference values for people usual with this for which the cumulative mean of roughness (7) enters the
quantity just to get a first idea of the degree of roughness. confidence intervals of the global mean to remain inside there.
However this approach can be used only after the execution of
a number of measures greater than necessary, otherwise
Roughness Measurement there’s no way to a compute a good estimator of the global
mean.
Roughness of rock surfaces is a variable quantity with values
that can be subjected to conspicuous oscillations from a nX
N
bn ¼ 1
Y yn (8)
region to an adjacent one, and this is more evident with 2D n i¼1
measurement techniques. In fact, in case of a non-
homogenous surface, profiles are prone to exhibit more
We then chose to proceed following the approach devel-
differences from one to another with respect to surfaces,
oped by Hoad (2010). This method consists of computing the
because they may intersect or not some particular features
confidence intervals on the cumulative mean and to evaluate
of the region of the joint wall under investigation. The direct
the precision of the measurement as the ratio between the
consequence is that one has to collect a minimum number of
amplitude of the interval and the cumulative mean:
profiles to obtain reliable roughness estimation. One of the
aims of our work is to define a strategy to compute the rffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
b n tða=2;n1Þ S ðnÞ
2
minimum number of measures that are needed to obtain Y (8)
reliable roughness estimation. n
Eleven samples of Perledo-Varenna formation have been
collected on two outcrops placed along the S.P. 65 road which where a is the desiderate confidence level (5 % in this study),
links the towns of Esino and Parlasco, in the province of s2(n) is the unbiased variance estimator of the first n measure-
Lecco, about 50 km North of Milan. Perledo-Varenna is a ment and t(a/2, n 1) is the inverse Student distribution of
calcareous formation dated back to the Ladinic stage of Tri- a/2 with (n 1) degrees of freedom. When data are not
assic period; in the zone where samples have been gathered it independent this equation loses validity since both Ŷn and
consists of a greyish to blackish mudstone-wackeston in par- s2(n) become biased. To take into account dependence of data,
allel strata featuring a thickness ranging from 10 to 30 cm. the equivalent number of independent measures is computed
The two chosen sites present different structural conditions: according to Malavasi (Malavasi and Blois 2007). Confidence
samples marked with letter A have been extracted from a zone intervals are still computed by (8) after substituting n with ne:
where strata dip against the slope and, since they were just
below the surface, water was allowed to infiltrate and circu- ne ¼ n ½1 þ ðn 1Þlc
1 (9)
late in joints. In the other zone, where dip direction of the
strata is almost parallel to the slope, we took samples just where lc is the average correlation of data.
Quantitative Evaluation of Roughness with a 2D Digital Instrument 201
Maximum absolute error on roughness estimation and lower limiting curve of the roughness parameter r for each
1.25
considered normal stress level. Finally, for each value of r
Maximum acceptable absolute error, err(r)
1.2 belonging to the range 0–15, we extracted the maximum

allowable absolute error as half the difference from the
1.15
upper and lower acceptable values of r. Results shown in
1.1 Fig. 3 lead us to fix the maximum absolute error on r at 0.9.
Roughness measurements with at least this precision should
1.05
allow obtaining good shear strength estimations in the consid-
1 ered range of normal stresses and degree of roughness.
0.95
0.9 Anisotropy of Rock Joint Surface

0.85
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Previous studies (Grasselli 2006; Tatone and Grasselli 2010;
Roughness, r
Kulatilake et al. 2006) put in evidence the existence of a
Fig. 3 Upper bound of the absolute error on r certain degree of anisotropy of rock joint surfaces, causing
roughness to assume different values depending on the mea-
surement direction. While processing 3D measurements it is
Considering that confidence intervals can increase or possible to extract automatically roughness values for differ-
decrease in amplitude with increasing the number of ent directions, with a 2D measurement device like the laser-
measurements, according to the trend of variance, the proce- camera profilometer measurement must be done by scanning
dure imposes to continue collecting at least five measurements the rock surface along a minimum number of 4–6 directions
after the target precision has been reached; this precaution that, thanks to the directional sensibility of the chosen rough-
allows to check if precision is still good or if it is necessary to ness parameter, correspond to 8–12 points on the polar plot
gather other profiles. (Grasselli 2006). This clearly raises the amount of work that
During a geological survey it is usual to gather roughness should be done to measure a surface with the laser-camera
measurements of more than on joint set of the same disconti- profilometer but, thanks to the rapidity of measurement that
nuity family. In this case the approach that has been shown to is practically immediate, our instrument remains competi-
compute the roughness of a single surface can be used to tive with 3D measurement techniques.
compute the average roughness of the joint set with a mini-
mum number of measurements. In cases in which one is
interested also to the variation of roughness among surfaces
of the same family, that could be the case if results of Results and Discussion
measurements should be used in numerical models with ran-
dom sampling of roughness values, one should use the proce- The program controlling the profilometer saves coordinates
dure proposed for each surface of the family he/she wants to on points belonging to the laser trace in two columns text
characterize. file. These files are opened in a Matlab® script written on
The minimum target precision for the chosen roughness purpose that process them in order to extract roughness
parameter has to be fixed according to the required precision values. Before computing parameters, this script allows the
on the shear strength estimation. Considering the moderate user to select the region of the profile that has to be analyzed,
degree of approximation of shear models, it can be agreed that since sometimes laser trace is projected onto other objects in
a +/5 % error on shear strength estimation would be lower the field of view of the camera not belonging to the surface
that the bias due to restrictive hypothesis and simplifications. of interest. The program allows comparing results obtained
If we accept this error on the shear strength we can from parallel profiles collected on the same surface to put in
compute the correspondent maximum error on the roughness evidence the degree of dispersion of measures. Table 1
parameter. The procedure we used to obtain the maximum collects roughness values measured for each samples in the
acceptable level of approximation on roughness estimation is two directions parallel to dip direction of the slope. In Fig. 4
the following: we fixed three levels of applied normal stress data of sample A1 (direction 0 ) are shown together with
(sn1 ¼ 10 KPa), (sn2 ¼ 100 KPa), (sn3 ¼ 1 MPa), a reason- their cumulative and total means. Roughness values are
able value of tensile strength of the rock (st ¼ 10 MPa) and similar inside each of the considered zones. Samples taken
of the basic friction angle (fb ¼ 31 ). With these data we in proximity of rock mass external surfaces show greater
computed three sn t curves. We then obtained their corre- roughness values, which have to be ascribed to surface
spondent +/5 % error bands and, by inverting (7), an upper damaging caused by external agents.
202 F. Mazza et al.
Table 1 Comparison between the global mean of measured roughness script that allowed to extract roughness parameters r. The
values and the cumulative mean of the minimum number of measures; minimum number of profiles to be measured was
the last column shows values of the relative error (assuming global
mean as the true value) computed following the approach of Hoad et al. (2010),
consisting of a continue gathering of profiles until a target
Sample N ŶN n* Ŷn* e
precision is reached.
A1 25 8.66 10 8.56 1.23 %
A2 29 8.60 16 8.97 4.28 %
Thanks to the simplicity of this procedure, it will be
A3 26 8.66 10 8.04 7.24 % included in the profilometer control program to make the
A4 26 8.15 10 8.52 4.51 % user constantly informed about precision reached by the
B1 48 5.47 8 5.79 5.78 % measurement. Currently profilometer acquisition is
B2 55 4.95 10 5.37 8.48 % governed by a button that the user pushes to scan a profile.
B3 30 4.85 10 4.77 1.60 % To make measurement more rapid the acquisition software
B4 46 4.47 8 4.52 0.99 % will be modified to let the profilometer gather a set of
C1 52 10.69 10 9.80 8.36 % profiles while the user moves it over the surface with a
C2 42 9.37 8 9.26 1.16 % previously set velocity. This will allow to substantially
C3 38 8.73 8 8.72 0.05 % increase the productivity of the laser-camera profilometer.
Sample A1 - direction 0°
12
References
10 Barton N (1973) Review of a new shear-strength criterion for rock
joints. Eng Geol 7(4):287–332
Barton N, Choubey V (1978) The shear strength of rock joints in theory
8
and practice. Rock Mech Felsmechanik Mécanique des Roches
Roughness, r
10(1–2):1–54
6 Beer AJ, Stead D, Coggan JS (2002) Estimation of the Joint Roughness
Coefficient (JRC) by visual comparison. Rock Mech Rock Eng
35(1):65–74
4 Cumulative mean Grasselli G (2006) Manuel Rocha medal recipient shear strength of
Data points rock joints based on quantified surface description. Rock Mech
Upp. conf. lim. - cum. mean
2 Rock Eng 39(4):295–314
Low. conf. lim. - cum. mean
Upp. conf. lim. - mean
Hoad K (2010) Automated selection of the number of replications for a
Low. conf. lim. - mean discrete-event simulation. J Operat Res Soc 61(11):1632–1644
0 Hong E, Lee J, Lee I (2008) Underestimation of roughness in rough
0 5 10 15 20 25
rock joints. Int J Numer Anal Methods Geomech 32(11):
Number of measures
1385–1403
ISRM Commission on Standardization of Laboratory and Field Tests
Fig. 4 Sample A1: comparison between measured data points, global
(1978) Suggested methods for the quantitative description of
mean and cumulative mean. Target precision is reached in correspon-
dence of the vertical bar discontinuities in rock masses. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci &
Geomech Abstr 15(6):319–368
One of the objectives of this work was to answer the Kulatilake PHSW, Balasingam P, Park J, Morgan R (2006) Natural
rock joint roughness quantification through fractal techniques.
question “how many measurements do I need to be confident Geotech Geol Eng 24(5):1181–1202
with roughness estimation?” The last three columns of Table 1 Lanaro F, Stephansson O (2003) A unified model for characterisation
show the minimum number of measurements, n*, computed and mechanical behaviour of rock fractures. Pure Appl Geophys
following the approach introduced in the previous chapter, the 160(5–6):989–998
Lopez P, Riss J, Archambault G (2003) An experimental method to link
corresponding roughness values, Ŷn*, and the relative morphological properties of rock fracture surfaces to their mechan-
differences between these value and those computed using ical properties. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 40(6):947–954
the total number of measurements. It is possible to observe Malavasi S, Blois G (2007) Influence of the free surface on the flow
that sufficient precision is reached always with less than pattern around a rectangular cylinder. In: 9th international sympo-
sium on fluid control measurement and visualization 2007,
10 measurements, and that relative errors are always less FLUCOME 2007, Tallahassee, 17–19 Sept 2007, p 1140
than 9 %. Patton FD (1966) Multiple modes of shear failure in rock.
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Use of SAR Interferometry for Landslide Analysis
in the Arno River Basin
Marcello Brugioni, Bernardo Mazzanti, Giovanni Montini, and Lorenzo Sulli
Abstract
Deformation data obtained by differential interferometric analysis of radar images acquired
by the satellite platform were used as a useful support in the definition of geometry and
state of activity of landslides for identifying areas at risk and defining priorities for action.
The interferometric data derived from radar images acquired by the ERS, RADARSAT and
ENVISAT satellites were processed and used for the implementation of the database of
landslides in the Arno basin (Tuscany, Italy). This database identifies some 25,500 land-
slide sites, of which about 10 % have risk elements, such as buildings, infrastructures and
so. Of these, over 90 % present information about the movements that have permitted to
perform statistical analysis of the velocity values recorded by satellites, reconstruct the
displacement vector in the EWZN plane and obtain important information concerning the
activity of landslides. The results were organized into a web-GIS project that represents a
very important tool for river basin planning.
Keywords
SAR interferometry Persistent scatterers Landslides Natural hazards GIS analysis
Introduction Algorithms that allow to significantly increase the informa-

tion in homogeneous areas of low reflectivity have been
The advent of advanced interferometric techniques, devel- recently developed (Ferretti et al. 2011).
oped since the 1990s, led to a rapid evolution of the potential The use of such techniques for ground deformation anal-
of multitemporal analysis of radar images acquired by satel- ysis has proven particularly useful as an aid in determining
lite platform for the examination of the phenomena of defor- the status of landslide risk (Catani et al. 2006; Colesanti and
mation of the ground (Ferretti et al. 2001, 2007; Colesanti Wasowski 2006; Notti et al. 2009; Poggi and Riccelli 2009;
et al. 2002; Ferretti and Hanssen 2002; Colombo et al. Righini and Casagli 2009; Notti 2010), in particular the
2003a; Costantini et al. 2008, 2009). detection of instability in areas subject to deep-seated gravi-
The nature of the Permanent Scatterers (PS) and the tational slope deformations (DGPV) that, following the con-
characteristics of the satellite acquisition system provide siderable depths of the sliding surface, are difficult to
useful information in the analysis of slow movements, monitor using traditional tools (Ambrosi and Crosta 2005;
which do not deviate too much from the EW directive and Crosta et al. 2009).
are located in relatively populated areas (Hilley et al. 2004; A very important feature of the system of satellite acquisi-
Strozzi et al. 2005; Meisina et al. 2007; MINAMB 2009). tion is the fact that the particular combination of satellite
orbits, with approximately NS direction, and motion of the
Earth’s rotation causes the same area is illuminated using two
different viewpoints, that is to say from West to East when the
M. Brugioni (*) B. Mazzanti G. Montini L. Sulli
Arno River Basin Authority, Via dei Servi 15, Florence, Italy
satellite moves in its orbit from South to North (ascending
e-mail: [email protected] geometry) and from East to West when instead the satellite

204 M. Brugioni et al.
moves in its orbit from North to South (descending geometry).

The possibility of observing the same scene from two differ-
ent points of view allows to better define the phenomenon
through the reconstruction of the displacement vector in the
plane EWZN (MINAMB 2009). Finally, comparison of speed
values recorded in the same area in different time periods
shows important assessments about the state of activity of the
observed phenomena, providing an objective evaluation basis
of considerable support for analysis at regional scale.
Interferometric Data Used
The PS data used for landslide analysis in the Arno river basin
(Tuscany, Italy) are derived from processing of SAR images
acquired from the European Space Agency satellites ERS
1/2 in the period 1992–2000 and ENVISAT in the period
2003–2008, and from the Canadian Space Agency satellite
RADARSAT 1 in the period 2003–2006. In particular, the
ERS and ENVISAT data were developed under the Extraordi-
nary Plan for Environmental Remote Sensing (Lot 2) made by
the Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea (Article
27 of Law 179 of July 31, 2002), obtained by application of
PSInSAR (Ferretti et al. 1999, 2001; Colesanti et al. 2003) and Fig. 1 Coverage of the ascending and descending datasets from ERS,
PSP-DIFSAR (Costantini et al. 2008, 2009) methods. The ENVISAT and RADARSAT satellites in the catchment of the River
RADARSAT data were processed using the technique Arno
PSInSAR and collected directly by the Basin Authority as
part of a study on ground deformation at basin scale.
satellites ERS and ENVISAT, make this datum particularly
The ERS 1 satellite acquired data from July 1991 to
suitable for monitoring projects in individual areas.
March 2000, while ERS 2 has been operational since sum-
Figure 1 shows the distribution of ascending and
mer 1995. The SAR sensor (Synthetic Aperture Radar) is
descending covers of ERS, ENVISAT and RADARSAT
characterized by a frequency of 5.3 GHz or a wavelength
satellites in the catchment of the river Arno. As we can see
equal to 5.66 cm (C-band). For both ERS satellites the
the covers of the three satellites are not uniform throughout
review period is 35 days.
the territory and, even for the same satellite, there are
The ENVISAT satellite was launched in November 2002
differences, still important (ERS), between the two geometries
and replaced and expanded the functions of the satellites
of acquisition.
ERS 1 and ERS 2. It is equipped with a sensor ASAR
(Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar) that uses multiple
antennas with different polarizations and angles of inci-
dence. Also in this case, the instrument acquires data in Methods
C-band (frequency of 5.331 GHz and a wavelength of
5.63 cm) and the satellite has a revisiting time of 35 days. The Arno River Basin Authority, as part of its planning and
The RADARSAT satellite is instead a commercial satel- monitoring tasks, has used for some years the ground defor-
lite, which captures images on a commission basis and mation data obtained by differential interferometric analysis
therefore, although in operation since November 1995, the of radar images acquired by the satellite platform (Brugioni
Italian territory has been covered only since March 2003. et al. 2003, 2008a, b; Colombo et al. 2003b; Catani et al.
The sensor mounted on the satellite RADARSAT 1 is a 2006; Farina et al. 2006; Montini et al. 2007).
sensor ASAR operating in C-band, with a multibeam acqui- Within the various PS data processing performed by the
sition mode and resolution from 100 to 8 m, with coverings Arno River Basin, three reference products have been
of single cell capture from 500 km cells up to 50 km cells. identified, useful for the characterization of the phenomena
The regularity of the acquisition of RADARSAT 1 and the of deformation and of their status of activities, as well as for
time of review, amounting to 24 days instead of the 35 of the delimitation of the most affected by landslides areas.
Use of SAR Interferometry for Landslide Analysis in the Arno River Basin 205
Fig. 2 Procedure for the

identification of active HDPSA
and stable HDPSA
Delimitation of Areas of PS High Density First, all PS have been classified as active or stable
(HDPSA) depending on whether, respectively, contained average annual
rate higher or lower than the instrumental error (+/ 2 mm/
It is often very difficult, if not through detailed surveys and year). For each of them was therefore found the around circle
field inspections, to understand whether the state of deforma- with a radius of 50 m and was determined the number of active
tion of the PS provided by the satellite analysis is to be put in and stable PS falling inside. The buffers obtained were then
relation to the nature of the reflective element or to a phenom- classified as areas with high density of PS (HDPSA) “active”
enon of generalized movement of the land on which that or “stable” according to the criteria shown in Table 1. These
element insists. The analysis of the distribution of PS criteria were defined on the basis of comparisons between the
velocities of displacement also allows to discriminate areas actual distribution of the deformations observed on the ground
where the movements are evenly distributed in space, and and the processing obtained by setting different values of
therefore more easily attributable to generalized deformations buffers distance, number and nature of the PS.
of the ground, from those areas where it is not possible to The classified buffers were extracted, geometrically
identify a prevailing trend of the deformation with the pres- reshaped to better approximate the distribution of PS, and
ence of PS clouds of different behaviour. In the latter case it is finally put into a single file by requiring overlapping of active
more likely to be that outliers of deformation could be related buffers on the stable ones. The polygons obtained from this
to the nature of the radar target (structural problems, the first processing were finally used to calculate the main statis-
phenomena of bedding, etc.), rather than to the presence of tical parameters of PS velocity values falling within. This
generalized deformations of the ground (gravitational insta- procedure was repeated both for ascending (asc) and
bility, areas in subsidence, etc.). descending (desc) datasets, to then merge the two pieces of
To discriminate this different behaviour in the distribu- information into a single file and classify polygons resulting
tion of deformation and, in particular, in determining the as follows:
areas most likely affected by gravitational instability, it was 1. Active areas: polygons where at least one dataset (asc or
decided to resample the PS data using a spatial density desc) identifies active HDPSA;
criterion which takes into account both the concentration 2. Stable areas: polygons where both datasets (asc and desc)
and the activity state of radar targets considered (Fig. 2). identify stable HDPSA;
Table 1 Criteria for definition of HDPSA

PS number
Type Center point and type PS %
Active Active PS Active PS 3 Active PS 75
HDPSA
Stable Stable PS Stable PS 3 Stable PS 75
HDPSA
3. Stable/uncertain areas with evidence of instability:

polygons where only a dataset (asc or desc) identifies
stable HDPSA and the other dataset (desc or asc) presents
PS within the polygon with average speeds greater than
instrumental error (+/ 2 mm/year);
4. Stable/uncertain areas with evidence of stability:
polygons where only a dataset (asc or desc) identifies Fig. 3 Resampling of ascending-descending data on regular cells with
stable HDPSA and the other dataset (desc or asc) presents 100 m mesh
PS within the polygon with average speeds less than
instrumental error (+/ 2 mm/year);
5. Stable/uncertain areas: polygons where a dataset (asc or three satellites considered, have been calculated within each
desc) identifies stable HDPSA, while the other dataset cell.
(desc or asc) does not have PS inside. For each cell that showed PS data in both geometries of
The procedure set out above has been applied both to the PS acquisition, the respective values of average speed were given
data obtained from processing of radar images acquired by and then proceeded to the reconstruction of the displacement
ERS in the period 1992–2000, and to those obtained from vector so that its projection along the two directions of acqui-
processing of radar images acquired by RADARSAT satellite sition (ascending and descending) surrendered the observed
during the period 2003–2006 and ENVISAT satellite in the values.
period 2003–2008. Of course the information obtained are This operation was carried out by simplifying the geometry
closely related to the range of observation time of each of the acquisition system, assuming that the direction of
satellite. movement of the satellites corresponds to the NS directive
This procedure made it possible to identify those areas (EW acquisition direction) for both geometries. In reality this
which in the last 20 years (the period covered by the condition is not fulfilled and therefore the results obtained
observations of the three satellites) have been affected by should be interpreted as an indication of a behaviour and not
phenomena of deformation stress. exhaustive for quantitative analysis. The definition of the
displacement vector in the plane EWZN thus obtained was
then identified by the value of its modulus, corresponding to
Reconstruction of the Displacement Vector in the speed of movement in the plane EWZN expressed in
the Plane EWZN millimetres per year, and the value of the angle formed by
the vector as compared to the zenith, in order to specify
The possibility to analyse the same phenomenon from two direction and orientation.
different viewpoints offered by the two geometries for the
acquisition of satellite data (ascending and descending),
allows to reconstruct the component of the displacement vec- Comparison of Average Speeds Recorded in
tor in the plane EWZN in order to better understand the nature Separate Time Periods
of the phenomenon that we are analysing (MINAMB 2009).
This type of processing needs to resample, throughout the This type of processing was performed to compare the values
basin, the punctual deformation data acquired in the two of speed recorded by satellites in separate time periods in
geometries in order to make them comparable with each order to assess, where possible, the degree of activity of
other for the reconstruction of the resulting vector. The observed phenomena (MINAMB 2009).
Arno basin has been divided into square cells with sides of The comparison between the speed values observed by the
100 m (Fig. 3) and the main statistical parameters of the PS different satellites has been made keeping separate the two
average annual rate of displacement recorded by satellites, datasets, comparing ascending with ascending and descending
both for ascending and descending dataset, for each of the with descending.
Fig. 4 Classification of the activities on the basis of a comparison of

speed values recorded in different time periods (MINAMB 2009,
amended)
Fig. 6 Application of HDPSA processing to IFFI database
Results
The deformation data of PS and the products derived from

Fig. 5 Example of the classification of reference cells by comparing their processing have been used to enrich the information in
the average velocity recorded in separate time periods the database of the landslide hazard areas in the basin of the
river Arno, realised according to IFFI (Italian Landslides
Again the original PS data were resampled using a grid Inventory) standard (updated December 2010) and delivered
with a pitch of 100 m, to then proceed to the comparison of to ISPRA (Superior Institute for the Protection and Environ-
the average velocity values obtained. mental Research) for the implementation in the national
Unfortunately, the coverages of satellite data on the Arno database.
basin for the three satellites considered are very uneven The results were organized into a web-GIS project in
(Fig. 1), and therefore it was possible to compare the average order to display both the actual spatial distribution of punc-
speeds only for the descending dataset. In particular, the tual data of deformation within the landslide areas and the
descending dataset of the ERS satellite (1992–2000), with different information due to the possible presence of
almost complete coverage for the entire Arno Basin, was HDPSA. Furthermore it is possible to reconstruct the evolu-
compared with that of the ENVISAT satellite (2003–2008) tion of the displacement vector in the plane EWZN or to
for the area Casentino-Val di Chiana-upper Valdarno, and make punctual estimations on the state of activity of the
that of the RADARSAT satellite (2003–2006) for the observed phenomenon. The web-GIS project can be viewed
remainder of the river basin. on the web site dedicated to the IFFI project in Arno river
Thank to this analysis it is possible to define the degree of basin http://www.adbarno.it/iffi/.
activity of the selected cells according to the schedule of The census database of landslides in the Arno basin,
Fig. 4. Figure 5 shows an example of the comparison between updated in December 2010, identifies some 25,500 landslide
different time periods following the classification of the activ- hazard areas throughout the basin, of which about 10 % are
ity of the cells with at least three PS for both satellites. significant anthropogenic elements for an assessment of the
Fig. 7 Example of resampling ascending-descending with reconstruc- speeds of the PS descending dataset; (d) resampling on the common
tion of the displacement vector in the plane EWZN. (a) Display of grid for the PS descending dataset; (e, f) reconstruction of the displace-
average speeds of the PS ascending dataset; (b) resampling on the ment vector in the plane EWZN
common grid for the PS ascending dataset; (c) display of average
Assuming that the movements recorded by PS are indica-

tive of what happens along the sliding surface, that informa-
tion can be very useful to get information on the type of
landslide: (1) rotational slip, with directions of displacement
tending to horizontalisation moving from head to foot of the
landslide, or (2) translational phenomenon, with directions
of movement approximately parallel to the topographic sur-
face. An example of resampling on square cells of 100 m
mash and determination of the displacement vector in the
plane EWZN aimed at the reconstruction of areas subject to
greater deformation in a deep gravitational slope deforma-
tion (DGPV) is shown in Fig. 7.
To complete the information on the movements recorded
Fig. 8 The relationship between the minimum number of buildings by satellites, the database has been implemented with the data
located in landslides and the presence of HDPSA for the comparison among the values of average speed
recorded by the three satellites. This information layer, very
risk status. Of these, over 90 % are affected by the presence useful for assessments about the state of activity of the
of PS. landslides recorded, for the reasons previously seen, has a
The identification of HDPSA (Fig. 6) has resulted in the limited coverage and still refers only to descending datasets.
discrimination, within the landslide hazard areas, of zones For this reason, the landslides affected by this type of infor-
affected by important deformation stress in the last 20 years mation were approximately only 2.2 % (550 landslides) of the
from those where the processing carried out identifies the total.
presence of a substantial state of stability. The results show that the majority (93.7 %) of cells that
The results from this analysis showed a substantial coher- contain at least 3 PS for both satellites have differences
ence between the state of activity attributed on the basis on between the average velocity values with deviations below
bibliographic data and the distribution of deformation stress. instrumental error (+/ 2 mm/year), showing a substantial
The distribution of HDPSA on the territory has also consistency of the values recorded by the two satellites
highlighted the need to proceed, in some cases, to a review (ERS/Envisat and ERS/RADARSAT). The 4.7 % of the
of the geometry of the landslide hazard areas and, in other cells instead has highlighted an increase in average speed,
cases, to an in-depth study to identify new areas originally from one stable state to an active state, while 1.6 % suffered
escaped the census. a movement to stop, moving from an active state to absolute
The landslides with HDPSA information are about 6 % values of speeds of up to 2 mm/year.
(1,443 cases of instability) of the total. The comparison between the average speeds in the three
Although this percentage figure may seem rather modest, sub-time periods used was also made between data obtained
such landslides are those that affect areas with high presence from the combination of the two geometries seen previously.
of human activities and therefore of greater importance for In this case, in particular, to optimize the coverage of the final
risk estimation. In fact, as shown in graph of Fig. 8, the result, the comparison was made between ERS (1992–2000)
percentage of landslides with HDPSA information is highly and ENVISAT (2003–2008) and between RADARSAT
dependent from the concentration of buildings in the area. In (2003–2006) and ENVISAT (2003–2008). Landslides
particular, while HDPSA can provide useful information to affected by this type of information are about 1.8 %
the characterization of the damages only for about 60 % of (456 landslides) of the total. Given the very limited extension
landslide areas with a number of buildings less than or equal of coverage of information, this percentage represents a good
to 3, the same information can instead be used for about result.
93 % of the landslides with at least 15 buildings within them,
up to cover all landslides with at least 23 buildings. Conclusions
The landslide areas with information about the recon- The use of information on displacement provided by PS
struction of the displacement vector in the plane EWZN data is particularly useful for the characterization of the
were about 5 % (1,276 landslides). If we consider, as a areas in gravitational slope instability phenomena and, in
selection criterion to increase the reliability of the data, the particular, the definition of the state of risk. For a correct
presence, in each cell reference, of at least 3 PS for both interpretation of the phenomena it is very effective to
acquisition geometries, the percentage of landslides analysed make, where possible, a joint examination of the ascending
falls to 1.6 % (297 landslides), but areas affected are the most and descending datasets. The data carried out in this work
relevant for estimating the risk. provide a number of very useful tools for identifying areas
at greatest risk and defining the state of activity and type of images. In: Proceedings of international geoscience and remote
motion observed. Obviously, this information may provide sensing symposium, Boston, 7–11 July 2008, pp 449–452
Costantini M, Falco S, Malvarosa F, Minati F, Trill F (2009) Method of
an important support to classical geomorphological- Persistent Scatterers Pairs (PSP) and high resolution SAR interfer-
geological analysis, but can not replace it. ometry. In: Proceedings of international geoscience and remote
The use of these data has also proved particularly effec- sensing symposium, Cape Town, 12–17 July 2009
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integrazione di monitoraggio tradizionale, PS-InSAR e modellazione
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Experimental Approach for Stability Evaluations
of Carrara Marble Basins
Domenico Gullı̀, Maura Pellegri, and Alessandro Cortopassi
Abstract
Because of the modern exploitation technologies for marble extraction, the open pit and
underground quarries can quickly reach impressive sizes. Moreover the selection of
exploited material or the geostructural conditions of the site can produce excavation with
unusual and irregular shapes. Also for these reasons the appropriate design of the
excavations, for quarrying activities, should require the knowledge of mechanical
behaviour of the rock mass, of geo-structural conditions and of in situ stress. The main
purpose of the quarry project should be to prevent instability of the rock mass, in every step
of the foreseen exploitation. The lack of this specific technical evaluation contributed in the
past to the development of large rock slide. The paper presents an applied approach for
enhancing stability assessment and safety controls of marble quarries.
Keywords
Safety Stability analysis In situ stress Brittle structures Numerical models
Introduction characteristics – at different scales – and tectonic stress

orientation from brittle structures analysis, (3) the in situ
The presented approach was developed in particular for the stress measurements through different methods and the mon-
study of underground quarries, allowing to underline the itoring of stress and displacements changes, (4) the determi-
fundamental importance of experimental measurements nation of the mechanical behaviour of rock by means of in
and of monitoring for calibration of numerical models and situ and laboratory tests, (5) the calibration of numerical
for the assessment of quarries stability conditions. The same models of rock mass using continuous and discontinuous
approach is now applied also for the study of the Monte approaches.
Torrione site, a relief located in prominent position at the A part from the case of local cinematic slides, for the
center of Fantiscritti Valley, that is exploited at different global stability of a quarry site it must be noted that the
levels from underground and open pit quarries (Fig. 1). tectonical genesis of marble, the topographic gradients of
The applied methodology is based on large scale geo- Apuane Alps ridge, the geo-structural assessment of marble
structural study, in situ stress measurements, laboratory deposits and the excavation geometries play an important
characterization of intact rock and calibration of numerical role on the development of failures within the rock mass.
models. In particular the study consists of (1) the determina- For stability analysis of open pit or large underground
tion of the site geometry and morphology, (2) a geological excavation, in particular in situ stress is recognized as one of
study for the determination of rock mass geo-structural the most important factors, especially where high non
lithostatic stresses can be encoutered such as in most cases
during exploitation of Carrara marble, even in presence of
D. Gullı̀ (*) M. Pellegri A. Cortopassi low overburden rock.
Operative Unit of Mining Engineering (U.O.I.M.) AUSL 1, Regione
Toscana, Carrara, Italy

212 D. Gullı̀ et al.
Monte
Torrione
FANTISCRITTI
Fig. 1 Monte Torrione site, interested by underground and open pit

quarries
In general stress state evaluation is needed in under- Fig. 2 Schematic geological-structural map of the Apuan Alps with
ground quarries in order to prevent static collapse of indication of quarry site investigated through the application of the
support structures. In surface quarries, stresses orientations presented approach (Carmignani and Kligfield 1990)
and intensities, together with the cinematic structure of the
rock mass, dominate the possibility of major induced domain of “low strain”, surrounded by main faults (border
displacements due to the deepening of the excavation and faults) to the East and West, (Ottria and Molli 2000). This
to the consequent stress re-distribution from the base to the structural frame is characterized by a not quite evolved
top of the slope. organization of the fault systems within the massif which
show a very low degree of interconnection between the
single structures.
Geological Overview of Apuan Alps
The Apuan Alps (NW Tuscany) are the geometrically Description of Applied Approach
lowest outcropping part of the Northern Apennine
structural stacking. Their formation resulted from the origi- In order to apply an observational design method, the com-
nally sedimentary, then tectonic evolution of a sector of bined contribution of laboratory tests, in situ measurements
continental crust, pertaining to the Adria Plate, involved in and surveys, rock mass monitoring, geological observation,
an accretional/collisional system during the Upper and numerical models has been considered. Laboratory tests
Oligocene-Lower Miocene. The Apuan Unit (Fig. 2) formed were performed in order to evaluate static and dynamic
by a Hercynian basement and by a Permian-Triassic to elastic constants, uniaxial compressive strength, biaxial
Oligocene metasedimentary sequence. The structural evolution strength and indirect tensile strength. The laboratory charac-
of the Apuan Unit includes two main tectono-metamorphic terization allowed, for the intact rock, to define well fitted
events (Carmignani and Kligfield 1990). During the D1 Mohr-Coulomb and Hoek & Brown envelopes. The Hoek &
main event the major structuration takes place within the Brown empirical strength envelope for the rock mass have
metamorphic units. been calibrated through laboratory tests and geostructural
This is confirmed by penetrative axial plane schistosity scanlines: in the Monte Torrione site this criterion well
(S1) of isoclinal folds that can be observed at the kilometric simulated the strength behavior observed in situ for rock
scale as well as at the microscopic scale. The peak metamor- mass, giving reasons for superficial extension failures in
phic conditions have been estimated in approx. 450 C of some exploited underground rooms, where measured stress
maximum temperature and 0.5–0.6 GPa of pressure. The intensities are closer to the failure envelope due to the low
most recent stages of the D2 deformation, which are of a confinement.
specific interest in this study, are connected to a polyphase The rock stress was measured using commonly applied
deformation that caused the development of brittle structures methods, such as Hydraulic fracturing (HF), Biaxial C.S.I.R.
(fault and fracture systems). The Apuan Alps have a history (Doorstopper) and triaxial thin Hollow Inclusion CSIRO-
of brittle deformation which makes them a homogeneous type Cell (3D HI-Cell). HI Cells were used for the 3D
Experimental Approach for Stability Evaluations of Carrara Marble Basins 213
This ratio provides the qualitative definition of the stress

ellipsoid (Fig. 3). The detected brittle structures were:
(1) first order faults (dislocation surfaces, associated to
cataclastic zones, with surfaces showing visible movement
indicators); (2) minor faults with movement indicators;
(3) fractures s.l. (joints s.s., and fractures with no evidence
of movement); (4) systems of conjugated fractures.
Both differential and integral methods were used for the
numerical simulations, with the setting up of 2D and 3D,
BEM, DEM and FEM, numerical models. The numerical
models have been set up and calibrated – at different scale –
for extending the field of stress measurements, evaluating
the general stability conditions of investigated sites and
simulating the rock mass response to the future planning
excavations.
Fig. 3 Classification of tectonic stress tensors represented by their
stress ellipsoid shape Finally, for the monitoring of the stress–strain behavior of
rock mass during excavation, stressmeters (both rigid and
local stress measurements. The 12-gauge cells used were soft inclusion type) and multipoint borehole extensometers
equipped with two axial, five tangential and five 45 (with vibrating wire transducers) have been used. Useful
inclined strain gauges, plus a thermistor. For the overcoring information for the choice of measuring devices and their
of the 38 mm diameter pilot hole a 128 mm overcoring positioning has been obtained by means of preliminary sim-
diameter were used. As for the other used methods, the in ple models of the expected stress and deformation induced
situ stress calculations have been based on the assumptions by excavations. For the cinematic analysis of possible unsta-
that the rock was linear-elastic, isotropic and subjected to a ble rock blocks simple limit equilibrium models have
homogeneous stress. During the biaxial tests, needed for the been used.
direct determination of the elastic parameters of rock core,
the isotropic and linear-elastic behavior of the rock has been
verified through the responses of differently oriented strain
gauges during the loading-unloading tests (pressures ranging Fantiscritti Marble Basin
between 0 and 15–20 MPa with steps of 2–5 MPa). The work
suggests that, among the other adopted methods, 3D Hi-Cell The Fantiscritti marble basin is located on the northeastern
represents the most reliable method for investigating 3D normal limb of the Carrara syncline. In this area (1) the
local stresses in underground marble quarries. Apart from main axial plane foliation has a monoclinal setting plung-
the possibility of a 3D evaluation of local stresses with a ing towards SW with increased inclination from NE to SW,
single measurement (without previous knowledge of princi- (2) a mineral and extensive lineation is associated with the
pal stress directions), it offers many advantages as (1) the main foliation, trending NE-SW on average, (3) the analy-
acquisition of all sensors curves before, during and after sis of the existing fracture and fault systems shows a
overcoring, enhancing the possibility of quality controls for deformation framework typical of a polyphase brittle tec-
each test and (2) the estimation of elastic constants of rock tonic evolution.
within the same overcored volume using the same testing The tectonic framework of Fantiscritti Valley, shows the
apparatus, during biaxial tests. The choice of using a stress consistency of the faults distribution with an approx. N10
relief technique in underground marble quarries is also in oriented sub-horizontal maximum compression stress
accordance with the method used for the exploitation, that is (s1). In this context, the N30-45 trending sinistral strike-
mainly performed using chain or diamond wire cutters caus- slip master faults develop, associated with the subordinate
ing less rock destressing than with blasting. approx. N160 trending dextral strike-slip faults. Cross-
The paleostress fields were obtained by means of the cutting relations obtained by means of fracture systems and
“Tensor” software (Delvaux 1993). The results include the kinematic indicators allowed the determination of a first
orientation of the principal stresses and the tensor shape, brittle deformation phase – generated by a paleostress field
identified as the ratio between the principal stress intensities with subhorizontal s1 direction – in which the strike-slip
differences, R ¼ (s2 s3)/(s1 s3). fault systems originate. A subsequent deformation phase,
generated by a paleostress field with vertical s1 direction
Fig. 4 Plan view of the Monte

Torrione – Fantiscritti site
Main Results of Experimental Approach
The proposed approach has been applied in three under-

ground quarries located below Mt. Torrione (two of them
are located along the tunnel connecting the Fantiscritti val-
ley to the Torano valley at a depth of about 450 m and one is
more superficial having a rock cover of about 100 m) and in
the external East slope of the mountain (Figs. 4 and 5).
The estimation of induced state of stress around the
quarries of Fantiscritti was attained using three different
testing methods: HF (11 boreholes for a total of 52 tests),
Doorstopper (5 boreholes for a total of 13 tests) and 3D Hi-
Cell (6 measurement stations for a total of 12 tests). The
results allowed for the estimation of an extensive stress
regime characterized by a subvertical maximum compres-
sion component s1, and a minimum and intermediate com-
pression components poorly constrained on the horizontal
Fig. 5 NE-SW section of the Monte Torrione – Fantiscritti site
plane (Fig. 6).
In the two deeper quarries (having an average rock cover
allowed the development of normal fault systems. An aver- of 450 m) an average far field stress can be assumed of
age RMR89 of 63 has been evaluated for the investigated about s1 ¼ 15.8 MPa 70/175; s2 ¼ 3.5 MPa 07/220, s3
site. ¼ 3.3 MPa 06/305. Actually a stress variations has been
IL TORRIONE
m 900 A A’
800
orive
700 ze cs nu
600
500
400
300
m 200
or/ve: Carrara marble, “Bianco ordinario” and “Venato” varieties; nu: Carrara marble, “Nuvolato” variety; ze: Carrara marble, “Zebrino” variety; cs: Cherty metalimestone.
or/ve: marmo di Carrara, varietà “Bianco ordinario” e “Venato”; nu: marmo di Carrara, varietà “Nuvolato” ; ze: marmo di Carrara, varietà “Zebrino” ; cs: metacalcari selciferi.
Fig. 6 NE-SW geological section of the Monte Torrione – Fantiscritti

site
Fig. 7 Fantiscritti Northern rooms – Stereonet (Schmidt, lower hemi-
observed within the site. A deeper investigation of the stress sphere): faults and fractures are represented
conditions has been carried out particularly in the North area
(just below the mountain peaks) were rock walls and
pillars are locally subjected to mining induced fractures the previously indicated stress regime. Also in this case the
and superficial damages (particularly evident in N and W three more 3D Hi-Cell stress measurements showed a
sides). In this area an average of s1 ¼ 16.5 MPa 83/291; good reliability and confirmed the presence of horizontal
s2 ¼ 1.7 MPa 05/095, s3 ¼ 0.5 MPa 02/186 have been tensile stresses (average stress of with s1 ¼ 5 MPa 63/254;
measured: therefore the induced stress tends to be more s2 ¼ 1 MPa 19/195, s3 ¼ 2 MPa 16/100); also in this
anisotropic – when compared to the average condition of case the Doorstopper tests (made in the external slope)
the entire site – with a high unconfined vertical stress acting showed scattered results with qualitative indication of hori-
on slim, unconfined, rock structures. The Hoek & Brown zontal tensile stresses.
empirical strength envelope, calibrated through laboratory The experimental results were used to set up and calibrate
tests and geostructural scanlines, well simulated the strength numerical models by means of BEM, DEM and FEM
behavior observed in situ for rock mass, giving reasons for approach. Numerical analysis were performed at different
possible failures in these rooms, where measured stress scale in order to evaluate global stability conditions of the
intensities are closer to the failure envelop due to the low site and local problems such as the behavior of the rock mass
confinement. during the realization of a support pillar. Generally, the
In this area an attempt to compare the results of the three BEM allows a first evaluation of the rock mass areas mostly
test methods has also been made. The HF and 3D Hi-Cell subjected to stress concentrations due to a given stress ori-
showed a good fitting for the s1 but HF does not adverts the entation as regards to the quarry layout. This method allows
low horizontal confinement which was assessed by means of to take in account of the entire scale of the site but it is not
the 3D stress relief tests. The Doorstopper tests showed very able to simulate the presence of rock discontinuities.
scattered results with evidences of horizontal tensile However, the BEM showed good qualitative correlations
stresses. simulating the above mentioned average condition of far
Comparing the data from the stress measurements field stress: the numerical values are in good agreement
and from the tectonic regime analysis it is possible to under- particularly with the stress measurements results. Thus
line that the conjugated fractures system and the normal BEM method turned out to be useful for a first preliminary
faults are consistent with a radial extensive paleostress analysis. In order to study specific problems – such as the
characterized by a subvertical maximum compression com- best orientation of the excavation or the definition of pillar
ponent s1, and a minimum and intermediate compression size and shape for given stress state and geological settings –
components poorly constrained on the horizontal the work showed that the DEM and FEM methods can
plane (Fig. 7). represent a most useful tool, taking into account the presence
Recently more stress measurements, performed by UOIM of the faults and allowing the assessment of the possible
inside a third, more superficial, underground quarry located stress concentrations and re-orientations, due also to the
just below the Monte Torrione peaks and by external excavation shape and direction (Fig. 8).
quarries consultants, in the East external slope, confirmed
a b
Meters
0 25 50 100
Fig. 9 Identification of the main brittle structures (a) and study of

large scale rock blocks (b)
Fig. 8 Representation of large scale 3D model of the site (a) and small
scale analysis for the evaluation of pillar performance during his reali- main features, in order to define open pit quarry geometry
zation (b) that can minimize the possibility of cinematic failures. In
particular for the open pit quarries at the East side of the
Some numerical 2D analyses, performed with Finite Ele- Monte Torrione this analysis led to a re-definition of the pit
ment Methods (FEM), enabled the simulation of simple slope geometry with properly defined orientation and aver-
plane problems also taking into account the presence of age dip of 65 instead of 82 , previously defined.
some discontinuities. For these simple models mechanical
properties of rock discontinuities have been analysed in Conclusions
parametric form. The work confirmed that in most cases, for rock of meta-
For the external slope one important rule is to evaluate morphic origin, such as for the Carrara marble, the stress
initial stress state have simulated the excavation of the regime cannot be explained by referring only to the
natural slope preceding the current geometry. lithostatic hypothesis: thus in situ measurements and
For a best calibration of model a monitoring system has observations are needed.
been installed in one of the underground quarries while a The stress state has been experimentally evaluated
new monitoring system will continuously measure induced using three different testing methods, however the work
displacements during external excavations of the Monte suggests that particularly Hi-Cell represents a reliable
Torrione East side. method for investigating 3D local stresses for the tested
In the East slope of the Monte Torrione, apart from the material for which an isotropic and linear-elastic behavior
extension of the stress evaluation performed for the under- has been verified at the rock core scale.
ground, the setting up of 2D e 3D models and the monitoring The comparison between the measured and tectonic
systems, a deep investigation of geo-structural assessment stress showed encouraging correlations and highlighted
was performed with the collaboration of the CNR-IGG the possibility of predicting stress shape (Fig. 3) through a
(National Research Council, Geo-Science Inst. of Pisa) and preliminary brittle structures analysis. However geo-
of the CGT-University of Siena. This in-depth examination structural investigation of the site is of fundamental
allowed the accurate definition (orientations and main importance in order to evaluate the rock volumes that,
characteristics) of the brittle structures and a photogrammet- at every scale, can produce induced displacements or
ric survey of the external walls finalized to rock block failures: the exploitation of the quarries, in particular of
stability analysis. open pit, have to take in account the presence of large
The detection of the main brittle structures allowed the scale blocks of which removability must be avoided.
definition of possible rigid blocks that can influence the large The application of the presented approach allowed the
scale stability of the slope (Fig. 9) while the data from definition of an extensional stress regime that can be
photogrammetric survey were organized in a relational correlated to most recent stages (tectono-metamorphic
geo-database in order to perform for every rock block a D2 deformation) of the structural evolution of the
cinematic analysis – at small scale – and to identify the Apuan Unit. The work underlined the fundamental
main geometrical mechanism of possible instability (Fig. 10) importance of calibrating numerical models also if those
This comprehensive analysis of the site allowed for the tools are, in some cases, unable to reproduce the local
re-definition of parameters used for the quarry project lead- stress variations shown by the measurements. However
ing to a knowledge of the acting stress, in order to properly BEM models have shown to be useful for an average,
design underground support elements, and of geo-structural qualitative, analysis of the rock mass behavior while
Fig. 10 Identification of a 3D solid: geometry, orientation of discontinuity surfaces with evaluation of his stability
DEM while FEM methods can represent a useful tool for

the study of most specific problems, taking into account References
the presence of rock discontinuities.
Carmignani L, Kligfield R (1990) Crustal extension in the Northern
Apennines: the transition from compression to extension in the Alpi
Apuane Core Complex. Tectonics 9:1275–1303
Delvaux D (1993) The TENSOR program for reconstruction: examples
Acknowledgments The Region of Tuscany (Italy) supported from the east Africa and the Baikal rift system. Terra Abstr Suppl
this work. The research has been performed with the contribution of Terra Nova 5:216–224
the CNR-IGAG (Geo-Eng. Inst. of Turin), the CNR-IGG (Geo-Science Ottria G, Molli G (2000) Superimposed brittle structures in the late
Inst. of Pisa), the DCE-UNIPA (Civ. Eng. Dep. of University of Parma) orogenic extension of the Northern Apennine: results from Carrara
and the CGT (University of Siena). We acknowledge the cooperation of area. Terra Nova 12(2):1–8
owners and workers of investigated quarries.
Part II
Rapid Runout Analysis
Introduction by Marina Pirulli and Claudio Scavia

Politecnico di Torino, Department of Structural, Geotechnical and Building Engineering,
Torino, Italy
Landslides may damage any human structure and may even cause the loss of lives when they
occur in a catastrophic way. In order to supply improved means of mitigation and planning to
the Organisms working in land management for landslide prevention and hazard mitigation,
the main goals of landslide runout analysis should be the assessment of future landslide
activity with a range of potential scenarios. In particular, when a potential source of instability
is identified, hazard mapping through runout analyses may contribute to define which areas
could be threatened by landslide propagation.
Two main approaches to runout analysis can be identified: qualitative and quantitative.
Numerical models are part of the latter approach and, in recent years, have particularly
emerged as a useful tool for landslide runout analysis and risk assessment. With increasing
attention and advances in computational capabilities, a large number of models have been
developed or are currently in development. Several of these models have included innovations
that have significantly advanced both the ability to simulate real events and the fundamental
understanding of rapid landslide processes. Contributions have been made by a number of
researchers with a wide variety of perspectives and goals, making this topic truly multidisci-
plinary. Still, some significant challenges remain as we move towards more accurate and
objective runout prediction using numerical models. Accordingly to this scenario, a large
number of the contributions that are part of this Chapter focus on numerical modeling.
The simplest qualitative method, which mainly consists in estimating the distal limit of
motion, the distribution of intensity within the impact area and the potential direction of motion
on a topographic map by following the direction of steepest descent from the source area
(subjectively accounting for spreading, superelevation and possible avulsion in channel bends),
is here proposed only by Lima who describes a methodology called “Relative Rapid Landslides
Analysis” for rapid evaluation of risk. This methodology is based on five different indicators of
risk. Each of these indicators is estimated based on experience, judgment and the observation of
similar landslides. The sum of these values results in an index of relative landslide risk of the area.
Quantitative runout analysis methods are less subjective and can be broadly classified as
either empirical or analytical. In regard to the analytical class, discontinuum and continuum
methods have advanced incrementally over the past three decades to the point where, when
used in combination with careful engineering and geological judgment, first-order runout
prediction appears to be possible. However, there is still room considerable for improvement.
In defining the characteristics of mathematical and numerical models for the simulation of
rapid landslides, it is important that all the key aspects that control the dynamics of a moving
mass are taken into account. As to this, Crosta et al. investigate the important role of processes
as entrainment of material located along the landslide path in changing the runout configura-
tion. Before moving to the application to real site problems, they interpret this phenomenon
referring to laboratory experiments. Similarly, Pisani et al. evidence that the rheological
parameter calibration can result altered, even in simulating laboratory experiments, if some
important factors as the centripetal acceleration are neglected in the numerical
220 Part II Rapid Runout Analysis
implementation. In this regard, it is proved that the consequence of including the centripetal
effect in the set of governing equations is a significant lowering of the dynamic basal friction
angle necessary to back-calculate some simulated experiments, this makes the value of the
friction angle much closer to the real one than if the centripetal acceleration term is neglected.
A major problem in applying numerical modeling to the study of real events is the
definition of constitutive laws and the calibration of their rheological parameters, which
cannot be measured directly and which are crucial for a realistic simulation of a landslide
behavior. Both Deangeli et al. and Quan Luna et al. focus their papers on this aspect. In
particular, Deangeli et al. analyze debris-flows and propose that the constitutive law is selected
as a function of the lithology existing in the investigated basin. They evidence that, among
others, the content of fine fraction in the flowing mass contributes in the distinction from
collisional to viscoplastic regimes. Validation of the approach is made through the application
of a Cellular Automata Model to cases of debris-flows at basins having different lithological
characteristics in North-western Alps. Quan Luna et al. aim to quantify the uncertainties in
resistance parameters and release volumes through the definition of probability distributions to
be used as input for runout modeling probabilistic methodologies.
With regard to rheological problems, laboratory experiments can give an interesting
contribution in investigating landslide dynamics from a physical point of view, in validating
a numerical model and in identifying the more appropriate rheology for an analysed event. In
particular, Cola et al. perform laboratory experiments to study the interrelations between the
grain-size composition of mud-flows and the rheological properties at different solid
concentrations. Guilhem et al. analyse in laboratory a single-particle impacts to assess
parameters to be used in the contact law adopted in a numerical model based on the discrete
element method. Once calibrated, the model allows the study of the influence of several
parameters on the propagation of a granular mass.
On the other side, Manzella et al. and Sauthier and Labiouse use laboratory experiments
specifically to study the influence of different parameters (e.g. volume, falling height, slope
angle) on the characteristics of the final deposit (e.g. runout and extension). In particular,
Manzella et al. investigate the motion of large masses with the aim of determine the reasons of
the mass high mobility, which results much greater than could be predicted using frictional
models. The same aspect is treated by Sosio et al. who replicate the motion of historical rock/
debris avalanches using a Frictional and a Voellmy models and define a range of values for the
parameters of each rheology, which best replicate the propagation.
With reference to site analysis, Marsella et al. discuss the implication of parameter choice on
maximum runout and invasion of inhabited areas in case of some pyroclastic debris-
avalanches. Similarly, Mortara et al. calibrate the input parameters for the rheological model
assumed to numerically simulate a well-documented case of ice-rock avalanche. In site
applications, Tobler et al. and Filipello and Mandrone propose the approach to runout modeling
with GIS-based models with reference to shallow landslides and rockfall, respectively.
An interesting discussion on the possible advantages of using a two-phase model respect to
the above mono-phase model, to simulate debris-flow propagation, is open by Stancanelli et al.
They underline that the calibration of a two-phase model could be easier, since parameters
have a more specific physical meaning respect to the empirical tuning of the parameters used
in a mono-phase model.
From a detailed analysis of the all the here described contributions, it emerges that
numerical models for landslide runout simulations are of wide interest given the high impor-
tance of the results they can give in respect to the territory management, however the major
problem that concerns all the approaches is the difficulty in calibrating the parameters
necessary to reproduce the real behavior of the complex type of investigated phenomena.
A consensus on the best method of determining the input resistance parameter values for
predictive runs has not yet emerged.
Runout Prediction of Debris Flows and Similar Mass
Movements
Christian Scheidl, Dieter Rickenmann, and Brian W. McArdell
Abstract
All around the world, people meet a challenge to find a balance between the risk of natural
hazards and the need for spatial developments. Densely populated hillside regions in
humid, subtropical or tropical climatic zones are often prone to various types of landslides.
The complex flow behaviour of such gravitationally driven mass movements is reflected by
inconsistent terminologies and ambiguous definitions of various landslide types in litera-
ture (Varnes 1978; Hutchinson 1988; Hungr et al. 2001). In this paper we focus on a
discussion of on runout prediction methods of flow like mass movements, particularly on
debris flows, where all transported material is generally in suspension and fluid and solid
particles of all sizes typically travel with the same velocity. The term runout refers to the
depositional part of a landslide or debris-flow event, providing information on the areas
potentially covered by the transported solid material.
Keywords
Runout Debris flows Mass movements Deposition Simulation Hazard assessment
Introduction where all transported material is generally in suspension

and fluid and solid particles of all sizes typically travel
All around the world, people meet a challenge to find a with the same velocity. The term runout refers to the depo-
balance between the risk of natural hazards and the need sitional part of a landslide or debris-flow event, providing
for spatial developments. Densely populated hillside regions information on the areas potentially covered by the
in humid, subtropical or tropical climatic zones are often transported solid material.
prone to various types of landslides. The complex flow In Alpine regions, debris flows are often observed in
behaviour of such gravitationally driven mass movements small catchments with steep channels endangering human
is reflected by inconsistent terminologies and ambiguous settlements and infrastructures. After several decades of
definitions of various landslide types in literature (Varnes active mitigation measurements against slope instabilities
1978; Hutchinson 1988; Hungr et al. 2001). In this paper we and channel erosion, passive protection methods were
focus on a discussion of on runout prediction methods of established and the concept of risk management was
flow like mass movements, particularly on debris flows, introduced (Fuchs et al. 2008). In Alpine countries hazard
assessment methods were introduced (Heinimann et al.
1988; Länger 2003) and qualitative and semi-qualitative
C. Scheidl (*) risk analysis methods conceptually applied (Guzzetti 2000;
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna A-1190, Kappes et al. 2011). Starting in the middle of the last century
Austria
hazard maps were established, delineating endangered areas
based on the magnitude and the intensity of the examined
D. Rickenmann B.W. McArdell
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf CH-8903,
process. The quantitative estimation of principal landslide
Switzerland parameters, such as event magnitude, runout length, and

222 C. Scheidl et al.
deposition area are therefore an important task for an effec- Empirical-Statistical Methods
tive hazard assessment.
For flow like mass movements, the magnitude of an event Empirically based one dimensional runout prediction
is often characterized by the potential landslide volume. methods for rock- and dense snow- avalanches and other
Several approaches were developed during the last years, flow like mass movements were first applied and further
to simulate deposition and runout behaviour of mass developed in the context of landslide hazard assessment
movements. However, the practical application, respectively (Heim 1932; Scheidegger 1973; Körner 1976), and were
the selection of adequate runout prediction models, is mainly later adapted to debris flows (Corominas 1996; Rickenmann
based on their availability and on the requirements of local 1999; Legros 2002; Toyos et al. 2008). One of the most
hazard assessments (Scheidl and Rickenmann 2011). simple empirical model model estimates the total travel
In this paper a brief overview of runout prediction distance as a function of the potential event volume and
methods is given for flow like mass movements and espe- the angle of reach, using or the longitudinal profile of the
cially for debris flows. Furthermore, examples of 2D runout expected flow path. Applying such a model to 140 debris
predictions for debris-flow events are presented, applying an flows from the Swiss Alps and 51 large landslides/rock
empirically based simulation model (TopRunDF) and a avalanches, comparatively shorter travel distances are
dynamic numerical simulation model (RAMMS). Finally observed for landslides/rock avalanches than for debris
input parameters necessary for both simulation models are flows or lahars or mud flows (Rickenmann 2005). Hence,
discussed. for a given volume, debris flows usually show a larger
mobility, or lower travel angles, than landslides and rock
falls. However, Rickenmann and Scheidl (2010) showed that
Runout Prediction Methods the uncertainties of the estimated runout distance on the fan
(the depositional part of a debris-flow event) can be high,
Griswold (2004) listed four basic principles for the develop- according to the predicted angle of reach or total travel
ment of runout prediction methods. Such methods are based distance. Prochaska et al. (2008) proposed a similar empiri-
either on (1) the use of historic and geologic evidence of past cal method, estimating the runout for non-volcanic debris
flows to estimate inundation limits of future flows, (2) the flows (ACS-model), but this method uses solely topographi-
use of physically based models that invoke conservation of cal parameters and does not account for a changing event
mass, momentum, and energy to calculate prospective inun- volume. Scheidl and Rickenmann (2010) applied the ACS
dation limits, (3) the use of statistically calibrated empirical model to a subset of observed debris-flow events and found
equations derived from analysis of inundation data, or (4) the that the ratio of predicted to observed runout lengths has a
use of statistically calibrated inundation equations that are tendency for a systematic under-prediction of runout lengths
constrained by physical scaling arguments. Chen and Lee with increasing event volumes. Cannon (1993) as well as
(2004) identified empirical, physical scale and dynamical Fannin and Wise (2001) estimated the total travel distance
approaches to model kinematic parameters and hazard based on a sediment budget along the flow path. A more
zones. Rickenmann (2005) distinguished between empirical- detailed discussion of volume-balance approaches can be
statistical and dynamical runout prediction methods for debris found in Rickenmann (2005).
flows. Many empirical-statistical methods for runout predic- However, for a more detailed delineation of potentially
tion require only a few input parameters and are easy to use. endangered areas, the runout pattern or the surface area on
However, such empirical methods should only be applied to the debris-flow fan should be known, i.e. the two-
conditions similar to those on which their development is dimensional aspect of the deposition pattern should be con-
based (Rickenmann 2005). In contrast, dynamical models sidered as well. A simple empirical model for this purpose
are independent from local conditions, since such models was first developed for lahars by Iverson et al. (1998). Based
implement physical principles like the conservation of mass, on the assumption of geometric similarity they proposed a
momentum and energy of bulk mixtures. Dynamical models semi-theoretical relationship between the planimetric depo-
are often continuum based and solved with numerical sition area, the cross sectional flow area and the total event
methods, allowing the simulation of flow and deposition volume. This approach was implemented in the program
behaviour over a complex three-dimensional topography. LAHARZ, a GIS-based simulation model (Schilling 1998).
However, the challenge with these models is the selection of Subsequently, more comprehensive observations on debris
an appropriate flow rheology or of the constitutive equations flows were used to test or modify the original approach of
of the material behaviour and the estimation or calibration of Iverson et al. (1998) in studies by Crosta and Agliardi
the key model parameters (e.g. O’Brien et al. 1993; Iverson (2003), Griswold (2004), Berti and Simoni (2007), and
and Denlinger 2001; McDougall and Hungr 2005; Medina Griswold and Iverson (2008). Scheidl and Rickenmann
et al. 2008; Pirulli 2005; Beguerı́a et al. 2009). (2010) developed the GIS-based simulation tool TopRunDF
Runout Prediction of Debris Flows and Similar Mass Movements 223
to predict deposition area as well as deposition height of a abruptly levels out; it is therefore also denoted as leading-
debris-flow event on the fan. The model combines the geo- edge or constant discharge model (VanDine 1996;
metric similarity criterion between the planimetric deposi- Prochaska et al. 2008). For a constant flow-width, the linear
tion area and the total event volume with a random walk runout distance on the fan can analytically be estimated
method for the flow path estimation, first proposed by under consideration of mass and momentum conservation.
Hürlimann et al. (2008). An example application of The constant discharge model can only yield plausible
TopRunDF to a debris-flow event in Italy is presented results (positive runout distances), if the friction slope
below. (Sfric) exceeds the average channel gradient of the fan (Sf).
The geometric similarity relationship between surface Studies of Jackson et al. (1987), Marchi and Tecca (1995),
area and debris-flow volume shows a tendency for varying Chau et al. (2000) and Rickenmann (2005) imply that gran-
mobility coefficients (reflecting varying mean deposition ular flow behaviour will lead to a higher roughness and
heights) as a function of process type. For a given event friction during depositional flow, resulting in steeper fan
volume, Scheidl and Rickenmann (2010) found smaller pla- slopes on average and in a smaller mobility. A more viscous
nimetric deposition areas for granular debris flow processes or muddy flow behaviour, on the other hand, shows higher
than for debris-floods or mudflows; this smaller mobility of mobility and results in smoother and flatter fans. Based on
the former process type may also be reflected by steeper fan five Canadian debris-flow events, Hungr et al. (1984) found
slopes. Crosta et al. (2003) proposed that the variations of reasonable agreement between observed runouts on the fan
the mobility coefficient indicate that non volcanic debris- and those predicted by the constant discharge model by
flows move less fluidly and form thicker deposits than most assuming a constant friction slope (Sfric ¼ tan 10 ¼ 0.176).
lahars. Several studies describe granular debris flows, debris Based on 14 debris-flow events at the Kamikamihori valley in
avalanches or rock avalanches as less mobile than debris- Japan (Okuda and Suwa 1984), Rickenmann (2005) reported
floods, mudflows or lahars, which show a higher concentra- better runout predictions with Sfric ¼ 1.12 Sf. He further
tion of finer material and/or water, implying a more viscous found reasonable predictions of runout length for 12 Swiss
or muddy interstitial fluid (Crosta et al. 2003; Hungr et al. debris-flow events of 1987 with Sfric ¼ 1.08 Sf.. D’Agostino
2001; Iverson 1997). et al. (2010) found Sfric ¼ 1.072 Sf., based on investigations of
six debris-flow events in the Dolomites (Eastern Italian Alps).
Based 63 on observed debris-flow runout distances in North-
Dynamical Methods ern Italy (South Tyrol) and Switzerland, Rickenmann and
Scheidl (2010) proposed a friction slope of Sfric ¼ 1.29 Sf..
Kinematic flow parameters like flow velocities or dynamic The two parameter mass-point model of Voellmy (1955),
impact forces are often needed for a more detailed hazard originally developed for snow avalanches (Körner 1980;
assessment. This typically requires to apply numerical sim- Perla et al. 1980), has been widely used to simulate the
ulation models, which represent a more physically based runout of debris flows (Rickenmann 1990; Zimmermann
description of the flow behaviour of gravitational mass et al. 1997; Gamma 2000; Hürlimann et al. 2003; Bertolo
movements of solid-water mixtures. The kinematic flow and Wieckzorek 2005; McDougall 2006; Naef et al. 2006;
characteristics of a debris flow depend for example on the Evans et al. 2007; Scheuner 2007; Revellino et al. 2008;
topographical and surface friction conditions, the water con- Hochschwarzer 2009; Stricker 2010). This model has also
tent, the sediment size and sorting and on the dynamic been applied to rock avalanches (Körner 1980; Sosio et al.
interaction between the solid and fluid phases of the debris- 2008; Hungr and Evans 1996; McKinnon et al. 2008) and
flow mixture (Iverson 1997). Therefore, dynamical models ice-rock avalanches (Knobel 2007; Allen et al. 2009).
are sometimes difficult to apply and generally require a Applications of the Voellmy approach to estimate the runout
“calibration” of rheologic or friction parameters by back- of snow avalanches can be found in Barbolini et al. (2000)
calculation of past events (Naef et al. 2006; Rickenmann and Christen et al. (2010). The Voellmy “fluid” characterises
et al. 2006; Tecca et al. 2007; Hürlimann et al. 2008; Pirulli the total resistance to flow by a basal friction coefficient
and Sorbino 2008; Hochschwarzer 2009). (Coulomb-friction) and a turbulence friction coefficient.
A simpler dynamical approach determines the kinematic The basal frictional term relates the shear stress to the
parameters of a single phase bulk mixture represented by a normal stress through the friction coefficient m. The turbu-
mass-point (often referred to as mass-point model). A one- lent term summarises all velocity-dependent factors of flow
dimensional, analytical mass-point model for debris flows resistance, and is expressed by either a Chezy coefficient C
was first proposed by Takahashi and Yoshida (1979), Hungr (used in hydraulics) or a turbulence coefficient x ¼ C2 (x is
et al. (1984) and Takahashi (1991). This one-dimensional often used in snow avalanche modelling). Figure 1 illustrates
model assumes that (1) discharge from upstream is constant, the range of best fit parameters C and m obtained from back-
and (2) deposition starts at the place where the channel calculation in different studies, typically optimizing
80
Knobel (2006)
Allen et al. (2009)

70
Barbolini et al. (2000)
RAMMS (2007)
60
Christen et al. (2010)
Hürlimann et al. (2003)

50
McDougall (2006)
Chezy [m 1/2 /s]
Naef et al. (2006)

40
Evans et al. (2007)
Revellino et al. (2008)

30
Hochschwarzer (2009)
Stricker (2010)
20
Hungr and Evans (1996)
McKinnon et al. (2008)

10
Sosio et al. (2008)
this study
0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
µ [-]
Fig. 1 Turbulent and coulomb friction best-fit parameters for back- The parameter domains delineated by ellipsoidal surfaces represent a
calculations of observed events with a continuum model for flow rough grouping according to process type
simulations based on a Voellmy “fluid”, as obtained in selected studies.
predicted and observed depositional area and/or flow Another rheological approach, referred to as the “qua-
velocities along the flow path. A grouping of gravitational dratic rheology” model, combines the Bagnold grain shear-
flow-like mass movements is illustrated in Fig. 1, based on ing model accounting for dispersive shear stress, the
the compiled ranges of the best fit parameters C and m. Bingham model accounting for viscous stress, and a Manning
However, this grouping shows a large variability of the coefficient accounting for turbulent stress. This rheological
parameter domain for a given process type. model is implemented in Flo2D (O’Brien et al. 1993), a
The Voellmy fluid approach is implemented in several widely used flood routing simulation tool for assessing
runout simulation tools such as DAN (Hungr 1995), mud- and debris flow behavior.
FlatModel (Medina et al. 2008), RAMMS-avalanche Another model proposed for debris flows accounts for the
(Bartelt et al. 1999; Christen et al. 2010; RAMMS 2010), interaction of solid particles and the fluid within the
MassMov2D (Beguerı́a et al. 2009) or RASH3D (Pirulli and simulated mass flux. Based on the work of Bagnold (1954),
Sorbino 2008). An example application of a runout simula- the inertial grain flow model considers interaction of
tion using the RAMMSmodel for a debris-flow event in Italy grains suspended in a fluid. Takahashi (1991) developed
is presented below. both one- and two-dimensional continuum models based
A continuum based simulation model with a viscoplastic on the Bagnold theory. A similar model for the two-
flow rheology considers a debris flow as a single phase dimensional simulation of grain-inertia debris flows in erod-
Bingham – or Herschel-Bulkley – fluid for which the nor- ible channels was proposed by Armanini et al. (2009). The
mal and shear stresses vary either linearly or as a power fluid–solid momentum transport model or mixture theory
function with shear rate (Johnson and Rodine 1984; incorporates both fluid-particle and particle-particle
Coussot 1997; Coussot et al. 1998; Kaitna and Rickenmann interactions and was proposed by Iverson (1997). Kowalski
2007). The viscoplastic model has been implemented for (2008) enhanced the mixture theory by taking into account a
example in the simulation tools DAN, FlatModel and varying, vertical distribution of mass based on possible slip
MassMov2D. between the bulk flow components.
Table 1 Upper part: input parameters and back-calculated best-fit parameters for the study site. Lower part: input and back-calculated values are
related to the used simulation models in this study. A *sign denotes fixed input parameters whereas a (*)sign denotes variable parameters for back-
calculation
Vobs [m3] Bobs [m2] Sfan[] kBobs [] m [] x [m/s2]
Arundakopfbach 15,000 35,505 0.19 58 0.08 300
Seefeldbach 70,000 62,266 0.26 37 0.18 350
TopRunDF * *
RAMMS-av. * (*) (*)
N N
predicted deposition zones predicted deposition zones

0 25 50 100 150 200 observed deposition area 0 25 50 100 150 200 observed deposition area
Meters Meters
Fig. 2 (Left): Best-fit simulation results of the debris-flow event at the Arundakopfbach (IT), using TopRunDF. (Right): Best-fit simulation results
of the Arundakopfbach debris-flow event using RAMMS-avalanche
minimum difference between the simulated deposition

Comparison of Two Debris-Flow Runout zones and the observed deposition area. A more detailed
Simulation Models comparison of simulated and observed deposition areas and
volumes was made for lahar inundation zones by Carranza
Here we apply two debris-flow runout simulation models to and Castro (2006) and for debris-flow runout patterns by
the debris-flow events in June 2002 at the Arundakopfbach Scheidl and Rickenmann (2010).
and at the Seefeldbach, both located in South Tyrol (Italy). Using TopRunDF, the best-fit simulation is directly
For this event a back-calculation was performed to deter- related to the observed debris-flow deposition area Bobs for
mine the best-fit simulation, using the empirically based a given event volume Vobs, characterised by the individual
runout model TopRunDF and the continuum based mobility coefficient kBobs ¼ Bobs V obs 2=3 . Apart from the
dynamical model RAMMS-avalanche with the Voellmy starting point of deposition and the choice of the mobility
fluid “rheology”. The best-fit simulation is obtained for a coefficient kBobs, no further parameter selection is needed.
N N
SP
predicted deposition zones

observed deposition area predicted deposition zones
observed deposition area
0 37.5 75 150 225 300

Meters
0 25 50 100 150 200
Meters
Fig. 3 (Left): Best-fit simulation results of the debris-flow event at the Seefeldbach (IT), using TopRunDF. (Right): Best-fit simulation results of
the Seefeldbach debris-flow event using RAMMS-avalanche
In RAMMS-avalanche the “Voellmy” model is applied, simulation the size of the observed deposition area (but not
resulting in two variable parameters, m and x, which required its location) is used as input parameter. If TupRunDF is used
a study of multiple parameter-comparisons to obtain the for predictions, an estimated size of the deposition area is
best-fit simulations for the test-site. Table 1 gives an over- used for the simulation of its location. The deposition area of
view of the used parameters for both simulations. The upper the RAMMS simulation in Fig. 2 is related to the “final”
part refers to the documented (with Sfan the average fan simulation time step of 300 s. This time step was defined for
slope) and “best-fit” back-calculated input values for the the condition that 95 % of the total volume remained immo-
case study events. The lower part in Table 1 shows which bile or that the average velocity at the front reached a value
general input parameters of the used simulation models less of than 0.5 m/s.
remained fixed and which rheological parameters needed Generally the runout prediction of both simulation models
to be adapted for the back-calculation analysis. for the debris-flow event at the Arundakopfbach show plausi-
Figure 2 shows the best-fit results of the debris-flow event ble results as compared to the observed deposition zones. For
at the Arundakopfbach, simulated with TopRunDF and TopRunDF the starting point of the simulation was chosen
RAMMS-avalanche. For TopRunDF the average deposition near the upmost region of the observed deposition area on the
height of 0.43 m is given as input by the ratio of observed fan. The simulation results are only influenced by the topog-
event volume to observed deposition area. The average raphy on the fan and the flow path routing algorithm. Since
deposition height predicted with RAMMS-avalanche is the RAMMS model does not allow to run with an input-
0.33 m. Since the same input volume was used for the hydrograph (including debris material), the input-volume
simulations with the two models, this implies a larger was applied within a freely defined release area in the transi-
simulated total deposition area obtained with RAMMS tion zone. Assuming constant friction parameters m and x,
than with TopRunDF. However, for this TopRunDF Hochschwarzer (2009) showed that the shape and location of
the selected release area does not result in variable dynamic friction parameters were held constant during the simulation.
parameters as long as the release zone is far enough from the Further research is needed to improve the “rheological”
starting point of the observed deposition area. However, the models describing the flow process and to guide the selection
results of the RAMMS simulation may be influenced by the of an appropriate model “rheology” for practical
topography near the starting point of the observed deposition applications of continuum based simulation models of grav-
area, which appears to be sensitive with regard to the deter- itational mass movements.
mination of the best-fit friction parameters. As shown for the
Arundakopfbach (Fig. 2, right), a certain amount of deposited
material lies outside the expected region, mainly because of a
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A Ready to Use GRASS GIS Workbench for Rockfall
Analysis
Andrea Filipello and Giuseppe Mandrone
Abstract
Open Source software is of great interest to many users and developers. One of the main
advantages is that users can develop and adapt it to suit their purposes. This work shows
modules developed into GRASS GIS for rockfall analysis. Modules examine both the
potential failure detection (rockfall susceptibility) and the area of potential propagation.
The study investigate three different mechanisms of failure: planar sliding, wedge sliding
and toppling. The modules for rockfall susceptibility are called r.SMR, r.SSPC, r.fsplanar,
r.wedgeSMR and r.wedgeSSPC according to the method of analysis adopted, while r.droka
is the name of the module developed for the propagation of the landslide. Input data are
both numbers and raster maps. GIS modules have been tested with good results in Ossola
Valley and, in general, they should be applied in geological settings where the failure
mechanism is mainly governed by discontinuity sets.
Keywords
Rockfall susceptibility GIS Open source Rock mass classification Laser scanner
Introduction Since the 1990s, geographic information systems (GIS)

took an increasingly important role in the analysis
Rock falling and, more generally, fast moving slope pro- and modeling hazard and susceptibility to landslide, as
cesses are very common in the Alps and serious threat to testified by hundreds of papers produced over the past
roads, houses, industries and mining activities. High hazard 20 years from researchers all over the world (Chacón et al.
conditions are related not only to the velocity of landslides 2006). The use of GIS has some advantages, such as the
but also to their high energy and mobility. For these reasons, opportunity to adopt techniques of analysis that would not
their hazard analysis and evaluation are two main goals for otherwise be used due to the ability to easily perform
scientists and institutions that, for various reasons, deal with calculations of a large number of parameters and to the
land use planning. Our test sites are located in Ossola Valley, possibility of overlapping and cross correlating spatial data
one of the main N-S trending valley of western Alps, wide- (map overlay). GIS also offers the possibility to verify
spread affected by rock falling and debris flow (Fig. 1). results and correct the incoming data.
In this work we always assess relative hazard (Harlen and It is important to emphasize that methods for hazard
Viberg 1988) not considering the time because of the diffi- analysis are not necessarily related to the use of a GIS. For
culty in defining the triggering factors and, therefore, the example, slope stability analysis based on physical equations
evaluation of a returning time. has a long tradition. On the other hand, the development of
many statistical approaches, that need to manage and ana-
lyze huge quantity of environmental data, is strongly
A. Filipello (*) G. Mandrone connected with the increasing use of GIS. In this study,
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università degli Studi di Torino,
Via Valperga Caluso 35, Torino, Italy
GRASS (Geographic Resources Analysis Support System)
e-mail: [email protected] is the software used to develop modules dedicated to solve

232 A. Filipello and G. Mandrone
Tools and Methods
The main data required for the use of our modules are
physical parameters of rock masses and digital elevation
model of terrain. Both these data were acquired by tradi-
tional analysis, according to specific and well-established
techniques of acquisition (as further described) and using
innovative techniques based on remote sensing. In particu-
lar, the use of terrestrial laser scanning for engineering
geology studies is a crucial aspect of this research.
Our study enriches the examples, in strong growth, of
applications of terrestrial laser scanning to geological issues,
without neglecting the importance of the traditional topo-
graphic modeling, field surveys and interpretation of
morpho-structural evidences.
Digital Elevation Data
Generation of terrain digital model is needed to extract

morphometric characteristics of slopes (slope and aspect),
parameters used to analyze geometric conditions that govern
the stability of the slope and propagation of gravitational
phenomena. Source of elevation data, essential to generate
the Digital Terrain Model (DTM), is quite varied and is
closely related to the scale and objectives of the study. In
summary, sources or techniques used for the acquisition of
topographical data, are:
1. Existing base maps;
2. Topographic surveys using total station and GPS;
3. Photogrammetric restitution of aerial photos;
4. Laser scanner surveys;
5. Field radar measurements (GB-InSAR);
In most cases studied, DTM are the interpolation of
contour lines and elevation points derived from existing
topographic maps (AA.VV 2006).
Geomechanic Parameters
Fig. 1 Example of typical landslide that can be found in the study area. Geomechanic characterization mainly consist in the defini-
The photos show the same area before and after a landslide occurred
tion of variables that influence the strength along a disconti-
near Formazza during the heavy rainfall of the 19.04.2009
nuity (dip and dip direction, persistence, spacing, roughness,
wall strength, opening, filling, presence of water and number
fast moving landslide (especially rock falling). GRASS is a
of systems). The methods for the detection and the
free and open source code that has been developed since the
techniques of analysis, processing and representation of the
mid-1980s and that knows some diffusions in the Earth
data are based on the procedures proposed by ISRM (1978)
Sciences, especially with regard to hydrologic modeling,
and PRIEST (1993).
geomorphology and remote sensing.
A Ready to Use GRASS GIS Workbench for Rockfall Analysis 233
Table 1 Modules developed in GRASS for the analysis of the suscep- A preliminary phase of the work consisted in the logical
tibility to failure for rock instability and to estimate the propagation of and mathematical validation of the modules. This phase,
landslides
which differs from the analysis of the predictive ability of
Code Kinematic Methodology the method, consisted in the use of the modules in order to
r.SMR85 Planar sliding Romana (1985)
ascertain the presence of errors. The procedure followed
r.SMR07 Wedge sliding Tomás et al. (2007)
involved the creation of a synthetic DTM, that is
Toppling
characterized by a very simple geometry, but able to play
r.SSPC Planar sliding Hack (1998), Hack et al. (2003)
all the possible geometric situations of the slope. At this
Wedge sliding
Toppling
point, a series of test were performed, checking the same
r.fsplanar Planar sliding Hoek and Bray (1981) operations both with modules and with commercial
r.droka Rockfall Evans and Hungr (1993) softwares (StereoNett, RocFall by rocscience inc.) or using
specific spreadsheet. Cross-checking of results allowed us to
test and validate the modules and to identify and correct any
When the logistic is complicated usually due to the steep-
errors.
ness of the slope, laser scanner represents the technique for
remote analysis of discontinuities that in recent years has
seen a growing number of applications and software
r.SMR
procedures (Hack et al. 2007). The techniques of processing
point cloud for the determination of geomechanics data can
It allows the evaluation of spatial distribution of susceptibil-
be automatic or semi-automatic. The approach in this study
ity to failure of a rock mass according to the SMR
is the semi-automatic one and is based on a product derived
geomechanic classification (Slope Mass Rating). The calcu-
from data supplied by the laser scanner: the solid image.
lation of correction factors is done with the equations of
This product consists in a classic digital image (RGB) added
Romana (1985) in the SMR85 module or with continuous
with a matrix containing the distance values obtained from
functions (Tomás et al. 2007) in the SMR07 module.
DDSM (Dense Digital Surface Model). Solid image is
Parameters required are (Fig. 2): DTM, dip and dip direc-
widely used, especially in geology and architecture. Main
tion of discontinuity, the F4 index (which takes into account
applications are referred to the possibility to do a variety of
the method of excavation) and BRMR index (Basic Rock
measures (angles, lines, surfaces, distances) in a
Mass Rating). The BRMR index of Bieniawski (1989) is the
georeferenced three-dimensional space. Within geological
score that is obtained assigning a numerical value to each of
applications, it has a particular meaning due to the ability
the above five parameters that characterize the rock mass,
to extract the equation of the mean plane of any point cloud,
without any correction for the relationship between design
simply by selecting the area on the solid image: this feature
and discontinuities. Regarding the BRMR index, the user
can be used to identify orientation of discontinuities.
can enter a unique numeric value or a raster map. We suggest
In this study, we used a software called Sirio (Bornaz
to use numeric value when the study area is homogeneous in
2005) that permits to identify planes on solid image using
terms of geology and morphology. On the contrary, the use
three different procedures:
of a raster map for the RMRb index allows consideration on
1. Choosing only three points;
spatial variation of rock mass quality.
2. Selecting a set of points used to calculate the equation of
a best fit plane;
3. Drawing a polygon that bounds the surface of the discon-
r.SSPC
tinuity and the code selects all points that fall within the
polygon calculating the equation of the plan that best fits
This module allows the evaluation of spatial distribution of
this spatial position.
the susceptibility to failure on the basis of the Slope Stability
Probability Classification (SSPC). It is a geomechanic clas-
sification introduced by Hack (1998) with the aim to con-
Developed GIS Modules sider, on the basis of statistical processing, the stability of
natural and artificial slopes. Stability is estimated using
Table 1 summarizes the modules developed in GRASS for orientation dependent stability and orientation independent
this study. The suffix “r” indicates that are modules based on stability.
operations of raster calculation. The first four modules allow The module uses the equations suggested for the
analysis of susceptibility to failure, while the latter is orientation-dependent stability. The parameters that deter-
focused on a empirical study of propagation of displaced mine the failure are (Fig. 2): discontinuity and slope orienta-
material. tion and shear strength of joints. This empirical parameter is
Fig. 2 Print screens of the proposed modules. From left to right, r.SMR, r. SSPC e r.fsplanar
provided by the TC (Total Condition), obtained multiplying terms of safety factor, but they should be considered as
the values that describe shape (Rl), roughness (Es), degree of stability indexes useful to select areas at different degree of
alteration (Al), type of filling (Im) and presence of karst. stability.
The result of the processing for each discontinuity system
consists of two raster maps: one referred to planar slide and
one to toppling. r.droka
It evaluates area of propagation, velocity and kinetic energy

associated with rock falling according to empirical methods
r.fsplanar suggested by Evans and Hungr (1993) and Corominas
(1996). Recent examples of similar applications in GIS can
It allows to evaluate spatial distribution of safety factor be found in Cannata and Molinari (2008) and Jaboyedoff and
calculated for planar slide and is based on the use of the Labiouse (2003).
analytical method proposed by Hoek and Bray (1981). The intersection between topographic profile and the line
Input parameters are (Fig. 2): DTM, dip and dip direction, that starts from the point of detachment at a defined angle to
cohesion and friction angle on the discontinuity surfaces, the horizontal defines the point of maximum propagation.
bulk density of rock mass, height of the slope, earthquake This angle of inclination (jp) and the line of propagation
coefficient, percentage of water saturation of the joints, are, respectively, defined zenith angle (also called travel
maximum safety factor to display and the name for the angle, Cruden and Varnes 1996) and shadow cone. Fp values
output. can be obtained using back analysis in cases where it is
The result is a raster map showing the distribution of possible to recognize detachment area and accumulation
values of safety factor that allows an indication of the degree zone, or by reference to bibliography values for similar
of the overall stability of the slope. If the module is systemati- geomorphologic contexts and land use.
cally applied, it is possible to compare objectively areas Input parameters are (Fig. 3): DTM, coordinates of
characterized by different geological and geomorphologic detachment point (East, North, Quote), zenith angle (jp),
situations. Results of the modules have not to be seen in correction factor (fv) that takes into account kinetic energy
landslide)also differ in the extent of investigated area, in

quality of topographic bases and in the possible effects
coming from the application of the results.
A Mining Area Problem
The Province of the VCO is one of the most important

mining districts in Italy for dimensional stone, both for
production and variety of extracted rock types. Knowledge
of the susceptibility to landslide for a slope interested by
quarries assumes an important meaning in terms of mining
safety and economic profitability.
Modules were tested in two different contexts (Fig. 4):
a portion of the slope of about 130 ha in which there are eight
different production units (a) and a single area of 1 ha quarry
(b). Both cases are characterized by gneisses, respectively,
from the Falda Antigorio and from the Falda of Monte
Leone, both belonging to Alpine Domain (Bigioggero
et al. 1977).
The geomechanic characterization identified the main
families of discontinuities and allowed to classify the quality
of the rock mass. In case (a) was made a map of the distri-
bution of the BRMB index, while in case (b) a unique value
for the whole area was used. The case studies also differ for
the dimension of the cells used in the DTM, 10 10 m in (a)
and 2 2 m in (b). In the (b) case, two different DTM were
used related to the evolution of exploitation after 5 and
Fig. 3 Printscreen from r.droka module 10 years.
Modules r.SMR, r.SSPC ans r.fsplanar were used to eval-
dispersion, mass of the falling block and name of uate the susceptibility to landslide. The maps obtained were
the outputs. The module returns two raster maps showing used to design the technical pattern of exploitation and to
velocity and energy variations (each pixel is associated at the identify possible critical situations due to the presence of
value of the velocity in m/s and at the value of the kinetic many quarry in a small area.
energy in kJ).
A Land Planning Problem

Application to Real Cases
In this case the maps obtained from GIS modules allow to
Methods, traditional or using remote sensing, for the deter- identify technical and management solutions for safety and
mination of input data and GIS modules for the evaluation of mitigation of landslide risk.
the susceptibility to landslide have been used and applied The first case study concerns the left side of the Diveria
appropriately in some test site in the north-western Alps creek, at the Swiss-Italian border, where it creates a narrow
(Ossola valley). valley with very steep slopes. The main buildings are
From a geological point of view, Ossola valley is one of overlooking the road for the famous Simplon Pass. Data on
the most interesting sections of exposed continental crust discontinuity families were derived using traditional
(Boriani and Giobbi 2004) and, moreover, contains a com- geomechanic surveys, carried out both at the base of the
plete section of the Sesia-Lanzo Zone (Austroalpino). The slope and from the solid image obtained by laser scanner
geomorphologic and geologic-structural complexity that survey. The solid image analysis allowed the identification
differentiates the study areas permit to test GIS modules in of five families of discontinuity, two more than those
different contexts. The selected cases (a mining area and a identified in the field surveys. This is due to the possibility
a b
N
Indice SSPC
High
Low N
Indice SMR
0-20
2-40
40-60
60-80
80-100
0 50 100 Metri
0 600 1200 Metri
Fig. 4 Results for the for the (a) test site (eight exploitation units) and
for the (b) test site (single quarry)
Fig. 5 Comparison between the classic simulation of rock falling
trajectories (a) and the result of the r.droka module (b). Colors express
to study a larger portion of the slope, rather than only limited kinetic energy (k J): in (a) red lines show higher kinetic energy (about
periferical areas and in difficult conditions. 5,000 kJ) and in yellow lower value, in (b) color bar is in 10 kJ
From the laser point cloud a DTM was generated with
cells of 1 1 m in an area of about 5.5 ha. velocities above 20 m/s and kinetic energies greater
GIS modules were applied to all systems of discontinuity than 100 kJ.
analyzing planar slide, wedge slide and toppling. Maps
obtained for each discontinuity and for any kinematism
have been overlapped (a function in r.series), in order to Back Analysis
obtain a new map in which each cell was assigned the most
critical value for stability. Spatial forecasts provided by The study area is at Valdo (1,220 m) in the Municipality of
modules were verified and supplemented by direct analysis Formazza, famous summer and winter tourist resort along
represented by new field surveys, visual inspections by heli- Toce river. At the base of the slope, Antigorio orthogneiss
copter and analysis of laser-solid images. The empirical outcrops; they are overlapped by Mesozoic metasediments.
module r.droka was applied for the five source areas of At the top of the sequence there are conglomeratic schist of
failure that the modules r.SMR r.SSPC indicated at higher Monte Giove.
instability. A value of 35 for jp and a reduction factor of In 2009 a landslide hit the left side of the river Toce basin
0.9 fv was used in modeling. (Fig. 1). Volume of the landslide was estimated, by visual
The results of the r.droka module were compared with comparison between the images before and after the event,
two-dimensional simulation of rockfalls (RocFall by in about 350,000 m3 that partially covered a pre-existing
Rocscience). The comparison showed good consistency in alluvial fan. This case study was chosen to test and verify
terms of kinetic energy and velocity for the rock falling the reliability of the r.droka module applying to a recent
(Fig. 5). phenomenon of which there is a direct and recent knowl-
The second study area is located on the eastern slope of edge. The cells of the DTM were 10 10 m. The value of
Monte Camoscio, near major historical granite quarries, the zenith angle (jp), estimated from the volumes involved,
active since 1500. The bedrock consist in Granito dei was chosen in 26 .
Laghi, belonging to the Hercynian plutonic body of Despite the uncertainties related to the topographic base
Mottarone, Sudalpino Domain (Boriani et al. 1992). and real volumes of the landslide, it was obtained a good
The DTM used for the analysis has 2 2 m cells and was correspondence between module predictions and field
derived from contour lines and spot elevations returned from observations especially for the main debris accumulation,
a low altitude aerial photo. the one characterized by the higher destructive power
The modeling of the rockfall was done using HY-STONE (Fig. 6).
(Crosta et al. 2004), based on kinematic equations. The The module did not, however, predicted the projections
results were compared with maps obtained with the module of small fragments (decimeters in size), which reached the
r.droka. This, using an angle of jp of 35 , provides results village and generated the highest levels of risk.
more precautionary than the ones from HY-STONE and
indicates a more extensive area of propagation. Conclusions
The values of kinetic energy and velocity obtained with The study shows the development of the application of
the two methods are fully comparable. Blocks can reach GIS modules for the evaluation of relative hazard,
Fig. 6 The r.droka module

applied to the Valdo case study.
Red dots show larger boulders
identified by field surveys
The modules are equipped with a graphical user inter-

face (GUI) for entering data and have been developed to
minimize errors during data uploading. All modules are
freeware and can be downloaded at the web page of the
Dept of Earth Science of Turin University:
http://www.unito.it/unitoWAR/page/dipartimenti2/
D011/D011_la_ricerca2?id¼1464012
Moreover, a customized version of Linux operating
system, based on Slax, has been developed to promote the
use of modules for beginners. It uses self configuration
functionality to be used directly from a CD, without hard
disk installation. The CD Live allow users to try out fully-
operational version of GRASS and it also contains a
demo data set. Users can run analysis with their own
data and save results on hard disk.
Fig. 7 An example of stability map from r.fsplanar module: red areas
are characterized by higher instability Acknowledgments The authors are grateful to the Provincia del
Verbano Cusio Ossola Geologic Service for providing data and laser
scanner survey and to support the study.
without any temporal connotation. The modules are based
on different methodological principles:
• r.SMR89 and r.SMR07 have been developed according to
the criteria defined by the geomechanics classification of References
Romana (1985);
AA.VV (2006) Progetto Interreg IIIa 2000–2006 Itineracharta.
• r.SSPC is based on the geomechanic classification of
Elaborati numerici e cartografici
Hack (1998), Hack et al. (2003) Bieniawski ZT (1989) Engineering rock mass classifications. Wiley,
• r.fsplanar (an example is shown in Fig. 7) is used to New York, 251p
calculate the distribution of the safety factor according Bigioggero B, Boriani A, Giobbi ME (1977) Microstructure and miner-
alogy of an orthogneiss (Antigorio Gneiss – Lepontine Alps). Rend
to the Hoek and Bray (1981) equations.
Soc It Mineral Petrol 33:99–108
The first three modules (r.SMR89, r.SMR07 and Boriani A, Giobbi E (2004) Does the basement of western Alps display
r.SSPC) analyze the kinematics of planar sliding, top- a tilted section through the continental crust? A review and discus-
pling and wedge sliding while r.fsplanar is aimed to sion. Periodica Mineral 73(special issue 2):5–22
Boriani A, Caironi V, Giobbi OE, Vannucci R (1992) The Permian
analyze planar slide. The r.droka module was developed
intrusive rocks of Serie dei Laghi (Western Southern Alps). Acta
to assess area of propagation, velocity and kinetic energy Vulcanol 2:73–86
associated with rock falling and are based on empirical Bornaz L (2005) LSR 2004 software. A solution to manage terrestrial
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Corominas J (1996) The angle of reach as a mobility index for small symposium on landslides, vol 2. Lausanne, pp 1037–1058
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ron. Springer, vol 62: article: DOI: 10.1007/s10064-002-0155-4, 44(7):1062–1069
Runout Modelling of Shallow Landslides Over Large
Areas with SliDepot
Abstract
The GIS-based model SliDepot simulates the runout zones of landslide prone areas. It was
developed by GEOTEST AG and applied during the last 10 years for numerous projects. In
combination with the SliDisp+ software (modelling of slope instabilities, cf. Tobler and
Krummenacher (Modellierung von Anrissgebieten für flachgründige Rutschungen und
Hangmuren. In: Proceedings of the 2nd Swiss geoscience meeting, Lausanne, 2004);
Tobler et al. (Modeling potential shallow landslides over large areas with SliDisp+. In:
Proceedings of the second World landslide forum, Rome, 2011) SliDepot allows to
calculate decisive parameters for the dimensioning and optimized positioning of protection
measures.
In contrast to other GIS-based models “Casadei et al. (Earth Surf Process Landf
28:925–950, 2003); Godt et al. (Eng Geol 102(3–4):214–226, 2008)”, SliDepot does not
rely on a single-flow approach, which calculates the flow direction by direct neighbourhood
relationship. The software is capable of analysing multiple cells in a 20 -sector above a
potential runout area up to the extent of four cells. The potential runout cell will only be
connected to the runout area if the mentioned 20 -sector contains an instable cell or if the
necessary initial volumes of mobilised mass are guaranteed. Furthermore the program also
considers geomorphologic phenomena like convex topography. With this approach the
runout direction is simulated fairly realistic.
The runout is based on the degradational water content of the sliding mass during its
downslope movement which finally leads to the break-off. Results from a case study in
Switzerland will be presented.
Keywords
Shallow landslide modelling Runout modelling Protection measures Case study
SliDepot model
Introduction
In mountain regions many residential areas as well as impor-

D. Tobler (*) tant lifelines are generally exposed to potential shallow land-
Institute of Geography, University of Berne, Hallerstrasse 12, CH-3012
Bern, Switzerland
slide events. Spatial planning is one of the major key elements
in protection against natural hazards and requires a compre-
GEOTEST AG, Birkenstrasse 15, CH-3052 Zollikofen, Switzerland
hensive assessment of landslide processes (Glade et al 2005;
Sidle and Ochiai 2006). By applying process models, the
R. Riner R. Pfeifer
GEOTEST AG, Birkenstrasse 15, CH-3052 Zollikofen, Switzerland
extent of potential landslides can be calculated over large
e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] areas (Guzzetti et al. 2006; Zolfaghari and Heath 2008).

240 D. Tobler et al.
The resulting maps provide a quick identification of Detachment (Source) Zones: Model SliDisp+
endangered areas with conflicts between hazards and land
use. It is the base to set priorities for a more accurate SliDisp is a deterministic numerical model which calculates
hazard assessment. Moreover, due to the importance of cost the landslide susceptibility of slopes (Liener et al. 1996).
efficiency the planning of protection measures calls for The original model was developed by Liener (2000) at the
(more) detailed information about the intensity and probabil- University of Bern. Studies in several test areas showed that
ity of expected landslide incidents for a given area. The model the assessment of detachment zones for potential shallow
SliDepot calculates the runout of shallow landslides (the landslides must inevitably take pedological aspects as well
distance downslope that the shallow landslide will affect). as joint water-input from the underlying bedrock into
Travel distance of a debris flow once it reaches a low- account (Guimarãres et al. 2003; Rickli and Bucher 2003;
gradient surface is a function of its volume and viscosity Dahal 2008). During the last 5 years different alterations
(Wakatsuki and Matsukura 2008; DeRose 1996). The solid were carried out and the program advanced to SliDisp+
volume of a debris slide or flow deposit is a function of soil (Riner 2009).
depth, distance traveled down the hillslope, and the gradient The model SliDisp+ determines the stability of the slope
of the traveled path. The proportion of water is the main for each cell within the grid by applying the Infinite-Slope-
control on viscosity. Several studies have suggested a rela- Analysis, using the simplified safety factor F (Selby 1993,
tionship between runout distance and the angle of internal see Fig. 1). F will be calculated to describe the ratio of
friction of shallow landslides (Corominas 1996; Griffiths retentive and impulsive forces. Fundamental basic data are
et al. 2002). Others predict a simple volumina-depending the slope angle, derived from the DEM (cf. Legorreta Paulin
relationship of the maximal runout distance. Hayashi and and Bursik 2009) from which the thickness of soil will be
Self (1992) or Legros (2002) for example postulate: deduced and the geology which allows to determine friction
angle and cohesion (VSS 1998) as geotechnical parameters
Lmax ¼ 15:6V0:36 ; (1) (Meisina and Scarabelli 2007). To consider the high natural
variability of the sheering parameters these values are not
where Lmax is runout distance and V is the volume of the described as single values per geological class but as normal
landslide. Clearly this relationship is sufficiently strong to distribution, calculated with randomly chosen values.
form the basis of a runout distance calculation, but it requires For the model calculation a term for root cohesion (WK)
that a landslide volume be derived. This is problematic as it has been added the original formula of the factor of savety F.
requires a calculation of both the surface area of the land- This empirical adjusted parameter takes the roots retaining
slide and its depth, neither of which are easy. Intensive field forces of vegetation layer into account (Schmidt et al. 2001;
investigations are necessary to determine the required Chok et al. 2004; Hales et al. 2009; see formula [2]).
parameters (Salciarini et al. 2006).
The model SliDepot calculates runout distances of shallow W K þ c0 þ ðg z cos2 b gw m z cos2 bÞ tan j0
F¼
landslides within a given area efficient and fairly realistic. The g z sin b cos b
above mentioned relationships between runout distance and (2)
volume, viscosity of the subsoil, roughness of subsoil, vege-
tation and slope gradient are summarized in an empirical WK: Root cohesion [kN/m2]
parameter. With this simplification an implementation of the c0 : cohesion [kN/m2]
complex thematic in a GIS is possible – modeling of runout g: specific bulk density [kN/m2]
distances from potential landslide detachment zone of large z: soil thickness [m]
investigation areas are easy to handle. b: slope angle [ ]
gw: specific bulk density of the saturated zone [kN/m2]
m* z: height of the water table [m]
Shallow Landslide Modeling j: friction angle [ ]
General Remarks The safety factor F is calculated for each cell of the grid,
based on the data from the digital elevation model (DEM). If
The process of shallow landslides has to be divided into two F < 1, the cell is potentially instable, and the material can
sub processes – the detachment- and the runout process be set into motion by triggering factors. The total of all
(Lourenco et al. 2006; Rickli 2001). Both processes can be instable grid elements equals the maximum detachment
modeled with different approaches. area (¼ landslide susceptibility).
Runout Modelling of Shallow Landslides Over Large Areas with SliDepot 241
2
c’ + ( g ∗ z ∗ cos b -u) ∗ tanF’
F=
g ∗ z ∗ sinb ∗ cosb
le
r tab
te 2
Wa u = g w ∗ m ∗ z ∗ cos b
ace
surf z
la ne
nd ep
ou Sli
d
Gr m .z F = factor of safety [ - ]
2
Uptrust = c’ = effective cohesion [ kN/m ]
2
g w. m. z. cos b
Φ’ = angle of friction [º]
10
30
z = soil thickness [m]
b
m
2
u = pore-water pressure [kN/m ]
Downslope Overburden Normal Stress
t = g . z . sinb . cosb = g .z z . m = watertable above the
σ = g . z . cos b
2
slideplande [-] 10
60
β = slope [º] m
3
γ = weight desity [kN/m ]
Fig. 1 Principle for the calculation of the factor of safety F for every
10
50
raster cell (Selby 1993). Indication of all parameters needed for the
m
calculation, except the root cohesion (WK, see formula [2])
10
40
The normal variation of shearing parameters is acknowl-
m
edged by a Monte-Carlo-Simulation. By applying this
method, 100 random values are chosen from the deviation
of the shearing parameters to calculate the factor of Fig. 2 Three analyzed grid cells of the sector for cell exposition from
210 to 230 (example: 5 m cell ! radius of red circle ¼ 20 m)
safety (F). With this random combination of parameters,
the factor of safety is calculated 100 times for each cell.
We assume that both – the cohesion and the friction angle – reduced during the natural process. Finally the lack of pro-
show a normal distribution and do not correlate with each cess water will determine the point where the distribution of
other (Lacasse and Nadim 1996). material stops. In contrary to many other GIS applications
Areas with more than 60 % of the parameter combination for runout calculations (Lineback Gritzner et al. 2001;
showing a safety factor F < 1 are indicated as potential Zolfaghari and Heath 2008), the model does not use a
sources. If there are more than 90 % of the F-values <1, “single-flow” approach to calculate the flow direction. This
a medium to large chance of a potential landslide is expected. model bases on a complicate, advanced nearest neighbor
The data preparation as well as its visualisation is carried out analysis.
by means of a geographic information system (Liu and Wu For the modeling, the runout movement of a shallow
2008). The calculation of the stability factors is implemented landslide has to be divided in two different parts: the calcu-
by a C-application and then integrated in to the GIS. lation of the flow direction and the calculation of the maxi-
If there are only fragmentary or rough digital input data mal flow distance. For the flow direction, several cells within
available (geology, underground data) the model output will a 20 -section above (inverse direction to the cell exposition)
be insufficient. In that case the source zones should be a potential distribution cell and up to an extension of four
defined from a simple slop-analysis. The slop-analysis grid cells are analyzed (Fig. 2). For the focused grid cell the
should be based on the nationwide available event statistic distribution will be calculated if (a) there is a detachment
(AGN 2004) for a certain underground. For such cases it is cell respectively a cell with sufficient water saturation and
recommended to let field experts map the detachment zones. (b) when the topography of the section is strongly convex.
On that base the run out zones of shallow landslides can be The SliDepot approach allows a far better prediction of the
calculated with SliDepot. distribution direction than the ‘single-flow’ approach.
The quality of the results correlates directly with the For the calculation of the maximal runout distance the
quality of the input parameters in SliDisp+. The better the water content of the sliding mass is the most important
knowledge of the underground, the hydrogeological system parameter (Hölting and Enke 1996). With every distribution
and the soil cover, the better the results for the detachment step the neighboring cells up to a distance of 20 m (for grid
zones will be. cells of 5 5 m) will be analyzed. By using a local reduc-
tion parameter the quantity of starting water (i.e. 1.0) respec-
tively the remaining actual amount of water is reduced. This
Runout: Model SliDepot parameter is mostly determined by the local slope gradient,
the type of underground as well as the vegetation (e.g.
SliDepot is an absolute GIS modeling. Starting with the data forest). The term underground summarizes the soil type,
from the defined source zones the distribution of material in the terrain roughness and the topography itself. The avail-
downhill flow direction is calculated. The model focuses on ability of accurate data finally determines the reducing
the amount of water within the shallow landslide that will be parameters. Hungr (1995) as well as Hancox and Wright
Table 1 Possible reduction factors for the runout calculations with SliDepot. Note influence of slope gradient and vegetation (grassland, forest,
cf. Hancox and Wright 2005)
Reduction parameters according to distribution step number
Slope gradient (Maximal runout distance)
g: grass 1 2 3 4
f: forest Original starting value (20 m) (40 m) (60 m) (120 m)
>25 (g) 1.0 0.85 0.72 0.61 ...
>25 (f) 1.0 0.60 0.36 0.22
17–25 (g) 1.0 0.75 0.56 0.42 ...
17–25 (f) 1.0 0.50 0.25 0.13
10–17 (g) 1.0 0.65 0.42 0.27
10–17 (f) 1.0 0.40 0.16
<10 (g) 1.0 0.45 0.20
<10 (f) 1.0 0.20
Fig. 3 Calculated source and

runout zones of possible shallow
landslides in the Bernese Prealps
(Switzerland); reddish-
brown ¼ detachment zone;
brown ¼ calculated runout with
SliDepot (above). Generalized
view for the presentation on the
hazard maps; dark Lila:
detachment zone; light lila:
runout zone
(2005) describe a possible way of the implementation of a source locations for shallow landslides with SliDisp+,
reduction parameter. The distribution stops if either a pre- cf. Tobler and Krummenacher 2004; Tobler et al. 2011)
defined number of distribution steps (i.e. 8) achieved or if the the run out zones are calculated. The starting amount of
calculated water amount drops below a pre-defined threshold water is reduced within eight steps each of 20 m. Usually
(i.e. 0.1). As an example Table 1 shows a typical reducing the final number of necessary discharge steps and therefore
parameter and the maximum range of a hypothetical distri- the maximal distribution range is calibrated with the event
bution under stable conditions (slope angle, forest). register or silent witnesses.
With the above mentioned parameters the average angle
of reach lies between 25 and 30 in grassland areas. In the
forest the average angle is around 20 . These values corre-
late with the AGN recommendations (2004) as well as the Case Study, Lauterbrunnen, Switzerland
investigation of Dai and Lee (2002).
Investigation Area
Combined Results SliDisp+ and SliDepot In 2010 model calculations with SliDisp+/SliDepot
(runout) have been carried out within the settlements
Figure 3 shows the results of a runout calculation from (approx. 30 km2) of the community of Lauterbrunnen during
shallow landslides. Starting at the dark red areas (calculated a review of the existing hazard map (GEOTEST AG 2003).
Results
Figure 6 shows the source areas (detachment zones of shal-

low landslides in red) calculated with SliDisp+ as well as
the runout areas (brown-yellow) calculated with SliDepot
(GEOTEST AG 2011). Starting from the dark red areas
(calculated source locations for shallow landslides) the
runout areas are modeled by stepwise reducing the original
water content through max. eight discharge steps, each of
20 m. For Lauterbrunnen an excellent event register exists.
So the final number of necessary discharge steps and there-
fore the maximal runout range has been calibrated with
silent witnesses from events in 1999 and the event register
Fig. 4 Investigation area for the review of the hazard map in (GEOTEST AG 2007). The average angle of reach of all
Lauterbrunnen, central Switzerland (Swissmap 2011) shallow landslides is 27 and lies within the range postulated
by Dai and Lee (2002).
The model results (SliDisp+ and SliDepot) indicate the
landslide prone areas within the investigation perimeter. For
creating a hazard map process intensities have to be added to
the susceptibility map. Therefore additional field
investigations focused (a) on the verification of modeled
areas and (b) on the definition of the process intensities.
AGN (2004) defines the different process intensities in haz-
ard mapping. The actual hazard map is shown in Fig. 7.
Comparing the calculated areas (Fig. 6) with the hazard
map it is obvious, that nearly all hazard zones have a smaller
extension than the modeled process areas. The model results
suit for hazard indication map, but still not for hazard maps.
Conclusion
There are a lot of uncertainties not considered in the study
Fig. 5 View from the South through the Lauterbrunnen valley with the of calculating the runout areas. These uncertainties
steep cliffs of limestone and landslide susceptible deposits in the valley underlying the model may include the type of material,
bottom
mechanism of failure, groundwater, the volume of failure
and the geology. The parameters obtained are applicable
Lauterbrunnen is situated in central Switzerland at an to predict the travel distance on regional scales, and
altitude of 800–1,500 m a.s.l (Fig. 4). The bedrock consists provide an effective means for the assessment of runout
mainly of schist and sandstones of the Aalenien and the distance of landslide mass when incorporated into a map
Bajocien (Dogger), sandstones of the Oxfordien and showing slope instability and the digital elevation model
Callovien, as well as compact Malm lime and sediments (DEM) within GIS.
from the Tertiary (Günzler-Seiffert 1962). The rock is folded With a sophisticated GIS approach it is possible to
in a large scale and disrupted by several steep tectonically produce innovative runout maps. The comparison with
displacements. The weathering resistant lime and the silent witnesses and the event register indicate that the
sandstones form striking steep rock walls falling towards model is useful and suitable for the scale adopted in this
the valley bottom (Fig. 5). The schists of the Aalenien are study (hazard indication map) For a hazard map addi-
very susceptible to landslides (GEOTEST AG 2007) tional field investigations have to be done.
On both sides of the valley the rock is covered by silty With SliDepot it is possible to calculate and indicate
moraines, dislocated slope debris and historic deposit from slopes with a higher disposition for shallow landslides
rock falls. The bottom of the valley consists of fine-grained over large-scale areas (several km2). The calculation
flood sedimentation from the river and shows a heteroge- helps to identify conflict zones between damage potentials
neous layering of material. and process areas, which again enables efficient spatial
Fig. 6 Section of the calculated

shallow landslide areas in
Lauterbrunnen (red ¼ source
modeled with SliDisp+; brown-
yellow ¼ runout modeled with
SliDepot)
Fig. 7 Section of the actual

hazard map for shallow landslide
processes of Lauterbrunnen with
hazard levels (blue and yellow
areas; green ¼ investigation
area, GEOTEST AG 2011). The
numbers indicate the field in the
intensity-probabilty diagram
(AGN 2004)
planning or the definition of measurements to protect be used for hazard indication maps. With additional field
human lives and the infrastructures. investigation hazard map quality will be achieved.
In future it will be a challenge to implement
water content of the sliding mass and detailed underground
Acknowledgments We would like to thank GEOTEST AG for
conditions into the reduction parameter of the runout supporting the development of the model. Thanks also to all persons
model. At the actual state the model SliDepot may involved in the technical discussions.
Legros F (2002) The mobility of long-runout landslides. Eng Geol

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DEM and FEM/DEM Modelling of Granular Flows
to Investigate Large Debris Avalanche Propagation
Irene Manzella, Herbert H. Einstein, and Giovanni Grasselli
Abstract
Large debris avalanches are characterized by extremely rapid, flow-like motion of large
masses and they travel extremely long distances showing much greater mobility than could
be predicted using frictional models. In order to investigate the mechanisms involved and the
reasons for the large propagation of these phenomena a discrete element model (DEM) and a
combined finite and discrete element one (FEM/DEM) are used to simulate small-scale
laboratory experiments carried out by Manzella “Manzella and Labiouse (Rock Mech Rock
Eng 41(1):133–151, 2008, Eng Geol 109(1–2):146–158, 2009, Landslides, 2011 submitted);
Manzella (Dry rock avalanche propagation: unconstrained flow experiments with granular
materials and blocks at small scale. Ph.D. n 4032, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne,
Lausanne, CH, 2008)”. The combined use of different models produces a more complete study
of the phenomena since each model can fill certain gaps of the other; they also help in a better
understanding of some mechanisms and factors, which are important in the longitudinal
propagation of granular and block flows, such as the progressive failure, the initial block
packing and the topographical characteristics of the slope break.
Keywords
Large debris avalanches Granular flows Block flows Runout DEM FEM/DEM
Introduction phenomenon among all geophysical gravitational flows:

they can travel for several kilometers along slopes and
Volcanic debris avalanches (i.e. block and ash flows caused valleys, their speed usually exceeds 100 km/h and their
by volcanic sector collapses) and rock avalanches (i.e. flows volume is greater than a million cubic meters (Hungr et al.
of fragmented rock derived from a bed-rock failure) are both 2001; Kelfoun et al. 2008). The large quantity of mass in
examples of what are here called large debris avalanches. movement can develop a considerable energy, greater than
They represent one of the most lethal and destructive the one developed by an earthquake of magnitude 6. This
enormous energy developed in a short time has tremendous
power of destruction that can cause irreparable damage,
I. Manzella (*) changes in the landscape and a large number of fatalities.
Section de Sciences de la Terre et de l’environnement, University of In 1949 the Khait debris avalanche (Tajikistan), destroyed
Geneva, rue des Maraı̂chers 13, 1205 Genève, Switzerland the entire town of Khait with the loss of more than 7,000
people (Evans et al. 2009).
H.H. Einstein At present, the mechanisms involved in these phenomena
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
are still for most part unknown. The reasons for their high
mobility are not completely understood and even if several
G. Grasselli
Geomechanics Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of
theories have been proposed and some mechanisms could
Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada play an important role for some specific cases, it is difficult

248 I. Manzella et al.
Fig. 1 Experimental set-up: a b

lateral (a) and top view (b) (From
Manzella and Labiouse 2009)
to decide, which is the most significant one and how it parameters such as avalanche volume, number of consecu-
controls the dynamics of the flow. Because of the complex tive releases, initial arrangement of the blocks, fall height,
behaviour of these geophysical flows, it is important to slope, basal friction and topographical features. In the pres-
derive an empirical understanding of the effects of material ent article some of these tests, which gave particularly inter-
and topographic characteristics on mobility and granular esting results are considered for numerical simulations.
flow mechanisms. Tests consisted of triggering an unconstrained granular
In this framework experiments and numerical simulations flow on a slope ending with a slope break and a horizontal
are of great importance because conditions are known and accumulation zone (see Fig. 1). The characteristics of the
consistent and accurate measurements can be performed. tests considered here are the following:
Models of this type of phenomenon exist, which consider – Constant slope: 45 and fall height: 100 cm
the mass of the debris avalanche as concentrated in a point – Materials: gravel of D90 ¼ 0.4 cm (Gr, see Fig. 2a) and
and the dynamic of its propagation as governed by frictional blocks (Br), i.e. terracotta bricks of 1.5 cm 3.1 cm 0.8
law, and energy dissipation at the sliding surface. These are cm.
called sled block models and they are often used in literature – Arrangement of the blocks: initially randomly poured
to understand the basic processes, e.g. (Heim 1932; Hsü into the releasing container (BrR) or piled orderly one
1975; Davies 1982; Van Gassen and Cruden 1989). When on top of the other (BrP) as shown in Fig. 2b, c
the mass is not considered as a unique body but as composed respectively
of several particles and the dynamics is considered as – Number of consecutive releases: 40,000 cm3 in one or in
governed by friction and interaction not only with the sliding two pulses of 20,000 + 20,000 cm3
surface but also between the particles, we talk about discrete – Slope break: sharp or curved (see Fig. 3), i.e. the sharp
element models; e.g. (Bagnold 1954; Drake 1990, 1991). angular slope break between the two panels has been
Because of the flow-like behaviour of large debris replaced by a smooth curve. The radius of the arc is
avalanches, continuum mechanics models are also often approximately 0.5 m.
use to model their propagation, e.g. (Pirulli and Mangeney The runout, i.e. the distance travelled by the front of the
2008; Manzella et al. 2008; Naaim et al. 1997; Hungr 2009). mass on the horizontal accumulation zone (see Fig. 1), of the
In the present article, laboratory unconstrained granular and tests considered here is reported in Table 1. The values
block flows (see Manzella and Labiouse 2008, 2009, 2011) are reported are an average of three different tests with the
simulated with different models, i.e. a discrete element model same initial conditions.
(DEM) and a combined discrete and finite element one (FEM/ In the progressive failure experiments considered here
DEM), which combines discontinuum and continuum (series B in Table 1) one first volume of 20,000 cm3 is
mechanics analysing discontinuum behaviour by discrete released and, only after it has come to a complete stop, the
elements while continuum behaviour is modelled through next one of 20,000 cm3 is also released. As shown in Table 1,
finite elements. This allows one to highlight the characteristics when 40,000 cm3 are released at once (series A) they reach
of each of these numerical approaches and how they can be longer runout than when released in two pulses (series B). In
useful in the simulation of the propagation of real events. the latter case, it is the first release that determines how far the
entire volume will travel, i.e. the runout does not change from
20,000 cm3 (series C)to 20,000 + 20,000 cm3 (series B).
Experimental Framework When the mass is initially packed and structured (Piled
Bricks, series E) it reaches longer runout than if it is loose
Manzella (2008) carried out several small-scale granular and (Gravel and Random Bricks, series A and D respectively).
block flow experiments at the Rock Mechanics Laboratory Even longer runout are reached when the mass is structured
of the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne varying (Piled bricks) and the slope break is curved, (series F).
DEM and FEM/DEM Modelling of Granular Flows to Investigate Large Debris Avalanche. . . 249
Fig. 3 Changes at the slope break (From Manzella and Labiouse 2011)
Fig. 2 Used materials: (a) gravel, Gr; (b) bricks randomly poured into
the container, BrR; (c) bricks piled orderly into the container, BrP
(From Manzella and Labiouse 2009)
Table 1 Characteristics and average values of runout on the horizontal accumulation zone of the tests considered in the present article
Series Total volume (cm3) Release number (1 or 2) Material (Gr, BrR, BrP) Slope break (sharp or curved) Runout (cm)
A 40,000 1 Gr Sharp 85
B 40,000 2 Gr Sharp 73
C 20,000 1 Gr Sharp 73
D 40,000 1 BrR Sharp 85
E 40,000 1 BrP Sharp 115
F 40,000 1 BrP Curved 180
pulse of 0 % of the total assembly of around 7,064 and a

Numerical Simulations second pulse of 100 %. In order to simulate the progressive
failure and to see the extent of the effect of the first pulse on
The laboratory experiments highlighted the importance of the total travel distance, the first pulse has been increased
three factors: gradually by 1/8th of the total assembly, while at the same
(a) Progressive failure time the second one has been decreased by the same quantity
(b) Initial block packing in order to keep the same total amount of elements. As a
(c) Regularity of the pathway consequence runs have been done according to the following
Numerical simulations are used here to better highlight percentages:
how these parameters influence the runout and the propaga- (a) First pulse: 0 %; second pulse: 100 %
tion mechanisms. (b) First pulse: 12.5 % ; second pulse: 87.5 %
(c) First pulse: 25 % ; second pulse: 75 %
(d) First pulse: 37.5 % ; second pulse: 62.5 %
Discrete Element Model (e) First pulse: 50 % ; second pulse: 50 %
Observing Fig. 5, where the y axis has been magnified for
A discrete element model simulates a granular mass as an a better visualization, it is possible to see the evolution into a
assembly of elements (spheres or superquads) that can inter- conical shape of the deposit along with the increasing of the
act with each other but are free to move. The numerical importance of the first pulse. In addition it is possible to
discrete element code WinMimes (Williams and O’Connor observe how the ratio between the first pulse and the second
1995, 1999) developed at the Massachusetts Institute of pulse is a very important factor in determining the runout,
Technology (MIT) has been used to simulate the flow i.e. as the first pulse increases, the shorter the runout. Even
dynamics of progressive failure granular flow tests (series when the first pulse is small compared to the second one
A, B, C in Table 1). The 40,000 cm3 experiment has been (12.5–87.5 %), the first one has still an influence on the
simulated with an assembly of 7,060 elements (superquads) runout which is shorter than in the case of a 100 % release
of o.4 “simulation units” diameter corresponding to the at once. However, observing the velocity snapshot of the
0.4 cm diameter of gravel particles. The geometry has been experiments in Fig. 6a it is possible to see how for simulation
determined proportionally in “simulation units” (i.e. 100 with a first pulse of 12.5 % of the total assembly the elements
simulation unit fall height, 45 slope, followed by a horizon- of the second pulse are only slightly decelerated when they
tal accumulation plane as shown in Fig. 4). The number of impact on the deposit formed at the base. In the case of an
elements can vary slightly depending on the assembly equal partition between the two pulses (see Fig. 6b), the
construction. deposit at the base works as a barrier for the elements of
The laboratory test in which the total volume released at the second pulse and their impact with the deposit influences
once is considered with numerical simulation with a first only the elements of the first pulse in the rear part; the
the interaction algorithm and a Coulomb type friction law is

employed in the code to calculate shear interaction forces
(Mahabadi et al. 2010b). Material properties and boundary
conditions are assigned using the Y-GUI program
(Mahabadi et al. 2010a).
Three different numerical set-ups were built
corresponding to the series with bricks D, E and F in Table 1.
Also in this case the geometry has been built following the
laboratory test conditions as shown in Fig. 7. The slope was
Fig. 4 Discrete element simulation geometry
meshed with three elements to simulate the slope with a
sharp slope break and with 5,280 elements created with the
software CUBIT to simulate the smooth slope break. Each
brick consisted of a discrete element made from four trian-
gular finite elements but no brick fracturing was allowed to
occur. Rectangular elements have been piled one on top of
the other or distributed randomly before opening the gate.
The latter configuration has been obtained letting the 5,280
piled elements free to fall under the effect of gravity from
1 m above the gate in a kind of funnel (see Fig. 7a); in this
way the elements distribute themselves randomly under their
own weight against the gate (Manzella et al. 2011).
The numerical simulations show that the longest runouts
are obtained with piled bricks and a curved slope break. By
observing the snapshots here, it is possible to understand the
mechanisms likely to happen within the block flow.
When the mass is initially packed in a structured way
(piled elements and sharp slope break, Fig. 8b), at the
moment of the impact with the sharp slope break its structure
and the initial packing are lost. This is different from the
case where an initially unstructured mass impacts the slope
Fig. 5 Discrete element simulation results of progressive failure
break (random elements and sharp slope break, Fig. 8a),
where the mass behaves as a loose material before and
elements in the front are not affected by the second failure after the impact. It is also different from the case of an
and they do not move. initially packed mass and a smooth slope break (piled
elements and curved slope break, Fig. 8c) where the packing
is preserved and the shattering of the mass at the impact with
Finite/Discrete Element Model the horizontal is reduced.
In order to simulate experiments carried out with parallele-

piped terracotta bricks a Finite Element-Discrete Element Discussion
Method (FEM/DEM) has been preferred to the simple dis-
crete element one since it can better describe the shape of the Eberhardt et al. (2004) affirmed that for cases where the slide
blocks and, as a consequence, the interactions between them. mass does not fail as a singular event, the total travel dis-
The code used here has been developed by the tance and the characteristics of the final deposit do not
Geomechanics Group at the University of Toronto and it is depend on the entire failed volume but on the individual
based on the Y-Code of (Munjiza 2004) who developed the episodic events of smaller volumes. These considerations
combined finite-discrete element method (FEM/DEM) are based on observations of the Randa event in the Matter
numerical technique (Munjiza et al. 1995). In the FEM/ Valley (1991, Swiss Alps). As a matter of fact the Randa
DEM method the Discrete Element Method (DEM) event involved the progressive failure of 30 106 m3 of
algorithms are used to model the interaction between differ- massive crystalline rock (Eberhardt et al. 2004) and it has a
ent solid elements, while the Finite Element Method (FEM) characteristic steep conical deposit. It is the result of two
principles are used to analyze their deformability. A penalty main events which took place on the 18th of April and the
function method (Munjiza and Andrews 2000), is used for 9th of May 1991, both occurred over several hours
Fig. 6 Discrete element a

simulation of progressive failure
(a) First pulse: 12.5 % ; second
pulse: 87.5 %. (b) First pulse:
50 %; second pulse: 50 %; at
t ¼ t1 where the elements of the
second pulse impact with the
deposit formed by the first one
and at t ¼ t2 where in (a) the b
elements of the first pulse are
involved in the flow and in (b) the
elements of the second pulse are
stopped by the first ones
deposited
(Schindler et al. 1993). It is the largest rock avalanche in do they lose their structure and energy is then mainly
Switzerland since the Goldau event in 1806 but because of dissipated through friction/collisions between the blocks.
the fact that the volume has not failed at once but progres- When the slope break is smoother, the structure is
sively, divided into two main events, the runout distance was maintained and less energy is dissipated at the impact with
significantly shorter than the one observed for other large the horizontal.
rockslides of comparable volume. This is in agreement with Both simulation types put into evidence the combined
what was observed in granular flow experiments by effect of the structure of the mass flowing relative to the
Manzella and Labiouse (2008): if the mass falls all at once regularity of the pathway, i.e. if the mass is composed by
it reaches longer runout than if it is released at different loose material, such as in the case of DEM granular flow and
times and equal quantities. Present Discrete Element FEM/DEM random blocks, it is the size of the single ele-
Simulations highlighted that even if the first pulse is much ment compared to the size of the irregularities that it is
smaller than the second one there is an influence on the total important in the mobility of the flow, i.e. irregularities,
final runout because even if the small deposit cannot stop the even if small compared to the total mass, but of size compa-
particles approaching, it decelerates them. The first deposit rable to the one of the grains, affect the mobility leading to
at the base constitutes an irregularity on the pathway of the shorter runout. On the other hand, if the mass is structured it
granular mass of the second pulse. This irregularity is com- is not the size of the single blocks that has to be taken into
posed by particles of the same size as the ones approaching account, but the size of the internal structures formed by
which partly or totally mobilize the deposit at the base. This packed blocks within the flowing mass compared to the size
process is energy consuming and as a consequence can of the irregularities. In this case packed elements work as a
decelerate or completely stop the granular flow mass of the single block of larger size compared to the one of the
second pulse. irregularities and as a consequence the mobility of the
The irregularity of the pathway affects energy loss within mass is less or not affected. This puts into evidence how
the mass flowing and as a consequence shorter runout results the actual combination of the size of the topographic
compared to flows on more regular pathways. This has been irregularities of the pathway and of the size of the internal
pointed out by Heim (1932) and (Friedmann et al. 2006) and structure of the flowing mass influences the mobility of the
by the experiments with a curved slope break by Manzella flow. If the material is loose, i.e. no major internal structure
and Labiouse (2011). These experiments are particularly are formed within the mass, the size of the structure is
interesting since the effect of the regularity of the pathway reduced to the size of a single block, which becomes
is combined with the initial packing of the material. FEM/ important.
DEM simulations allowed us to observe the behaviour of the
structure before and after the impact with the slope break
confirming the intuitive considerations made by Manzella Conclusions
and Labiouse (2009), i.e. blocks randomly poured into the The reasons of the high mobility of large debris
box behave as a loose material and energy is dissipated from avalanches are not completely understood. In order to
the beginning through both friction and collision at the base investigate the mechanisms involved and the reasons of
and within the mass. When blocks are initially structured, the large propagation of these phenomena, a discrete
they remain packed together on the inclined slope where element code and a combined finite and discrete element
energy dissipation takes place mainly through friction at one are used to simulate small-scale laboratory
the base. Only after the impact with the horizontal panel, experiments (Manzella and Labiouse 2008, 2009, 2011).
Fig. 8 Difference in shattering with (a) loose elements (BrR) and a

sharp slope break; (b) piled elements (BrP) and a sharp slope break;
(c) piled elements (BrP) and a smooth curved slope break. In
(a) the material is de-structured before and after the slope break, in
(b) the structures of the piled elements are broken at the impact with the
horizontal; in (c) the elements simply slide on the curve (From
Manzella et al. 2011)
two-dimensional nature of the code does not allow one to

reproduce the actual geometrical dimensions, simulations
confirmed the effects of volume and periodic pulses on
the final deposit characteristics (Einstein et al. 2010)
detected in the experiments. The discrete element model
allows us to establish a relationship between the differ-
ence in volume between the first and the second pulse and
the difference in the final runout.
In order to simulate experiments carried out with par-
Fig. 7 Numerical set-ups: (a) random elements before and after the allelepiped terracotta bricks a Finite Element-Discrete
distribution against the gate, sharp slope break; (b) piled elements, Element Method (FEMDEM) has been preferred to the
sharp slope break; (c) piled elements, smooth slope break. Yellow simple discrete element one since it can better describe
lines define groups of 5,280 elements either piled on top of the other
the shape of the blocks and, as a consequence, the
(rectangle in a, b and c) or randomly distributed (irregular shape in a).
Light grey triangles confine the elements at start; they are removed interactions between them. Also in this case the two-
when the simulation is triggered (From Manzella et al. 2011) dimensional nature of the code prevents a quantitative
match. Simulations, though, can satisfactorily reproduce
Tests considered here consist of triggering an uncon- the influence of the parameters varied during the
strained granular flow on a 45 slope ending with a slope experiments, such as the initial packing of the blocks
break and a horizontal accumulation zone. The discrete and the regularity of the pathway and they allowed us to
element code WinMimes (Williams and O’Connor 1999) detect to which extent the initial packing is preserved in
developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology the final deposit (Manzella et al. 2011).
(MIT) has been used to study the effect of progressive As a conclusion, it can be seen how a combined use of
failure on mobility of granular flows. Even though the different models produces a more complete study of the
phenomena since each one can highlight different aspects Mahabadi OK, Grasselli G, Munjiza A (2010a) Y-GUI: a graphical user
of the same process. Specifically, it is possible to take into interface and pre-processor for the combined finite-discrete element
code, Y2D, incorporating material heterogeneity. Comput Geosci
account the interactions between blocks and between 36(2):241–252. doi:10.1016/j.cageo.2009.05.010
blocks and topography; simulations highlighted the Mahabadi OK, Lisjak A, Grasselli G, Lukas T, Munjiza A (2010b)
importance of the relative size of the topographic Numerical modelling of a triaxial test of homogeneous rocks using
irregularities of the pathway compared to the one of the the combined finite-discrete element method. In: Zhao J, Labiouse
V, Dudt J-P, Mathier J-F (eds) Rock mechanics in civil and envi-
internal structure of the mass flowing and pointed out ronmental engineering. CRC Press/Taylor & Francis, Boca Raton
how this is likely to affect the mobility of debris Manzella I (2008) Dry rock avalanche propagation: unconstrained flow
avalanches. experiments with granular materials and blocks at small scale. Ph.D
n 4032, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, CH
Manzella I, Labiouse V (2008) Qualitative analysis of rock avalanches
Acknowledgments Dr. Manzella would like to thank “Fondation propagation by means of physical modelling of non-constrained
Ernst and Lucie Schmidheiny” for funding and Professor John gravel flows. Rock Mech Rock Eng 41(1):133–151
Williams and Professor Costanza Bonadonna for fruitful discussions. Manzella I, Labiouse V (2009) Flow experiments with gravel and
Dr. Grasselli’s work has been supported by the National Science and blocks at small scale to investigate parameters and mechanisms
Engineering Research Council of Canada in the form of Discovery involved in rock avalanches. Eng Geol 109(1–2):146–158.
Grant No. 341275. doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2008.11.006
Manzella I, Labiouse V (2011) Empirical and analytical analyses of
laboratory granular flows to investigate rock avalanche propagation.
Landslides (submitted)
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Assessment of Discrete Element Modelling
Parameters for Rock Mass Propagation
Guilhem Mollon, Vincent Richefeu, Pascal Villard, and Dominique Daudon
Abstract
The efficiency of a numerical model depends on both the realism of the assumptions it is
based on, and on the way its parameters are assessed. We propose a numerical model
based on the discrete element method which makes possible, thanks to the definition of
an appropriate contact law, to simulate the mechanisms of energy dissipations by friction
and shocks during the propagation of an avalanche of granular material on a slope. The
parameters of the contact model are obtained from laboratory experiments of single impacts.
A particular attention was paid to the values of the run-out, the morphology of the deposit,
the proportions of energy dissipations by impacts or friction, and the kinetic energies of
translation and rotation. The results of this numerical study provide valuable information on
the relevance of some usual assumptions of granular flow continuous models.
Keywords
Discrete element method Rock avalanches Dissipative contact law Parameter
identification Experimental validation
Introduction The model proposed here is based (1) on realistic block

shapes and (2) on the definition of simple interaction laws
Understanding and prediction of rock avalanches are key that hold physical parameters easily assessable. These laws
elements for the risk management in the development of incorporate the mechanisms of energy dissipation in a global
mountain areas. Due to the complexity of the involved way.
mechanisms, numerical models such as continuous models To validate this approach, which is extremely difficult to
(McDougal and Hungr 2004; Mangeney-Castelnau et al. carry out in the case of rock avalanches, we replicated labora-
2003; Tommasi et al. 2008) based on fluid mechanics or tory experiments conducted under idealized test conditions
discrete element models (Cundall and Strack 1979) are (Manzella and Labiouse 2009). Model parameters, optimized
needed to estimate the morphology of the deposit or the through tests conducted on single brick release, were used to
propagation distance of a rock mass. simulate the collective behavior of a set of bricks on a slope.
Compared with continuous models, discrete models allow The advantage of the numerical model is that it gives
more accurate modelling of the propagation phenomenon, access to quantities difficult to assess experimentally at any
without the need of accounting for all existing mechanisms point of the granular mass: velocity and rotation of bodies,
of interaction. At the scale of an actual event, rather simple energy dissipated by friction or shocks with the slope or
contact laws can be used without any loss of accuracy. within the mass movement, nature of flow and geometry of
the final deposit.
After the validation, the numerical model is used to
G. Mollon (*) V. Richefeu P. Villard D. Daudon evaluate the quality of some usual assumptions of continu-
UJF-Grenoble 1, Grenoble-INP, CNRS UMR 5521, 3SR Lab,
Grenoble F-38041, France
ous models of granular flows (i.e. assumptions of no-
e-mail: [email protected] dilatancy and of velocity uniformity in a cross-section of

256 G. Mollon et al.
the flow), and the relevance of some parameters by study-

ing the different modes of energy dissipation along the
slope and inside the flow.
Numerical Model
Discrete models have the advantage to model the determin-

istic movements of a set of interacting particles. We present
in this section the numerical model implemented within the
C++ toolkit DEMbox (www.cgp-gateway.org). The move-
ment of each block, governed by the fundamental principle
of dynamics, is integrated by means of the velocity-Verlet
scheme (Allen and Tildesley 1989) which is a good compro-
mise between accuracy of the block velocities (for both
translations and rotations) and memory saving.
Rock avalanches are far from being treated as a quasi-
Fig. 1 Layout of a brick modelled by sphero-polyhedron
static evolution of block movements. For this reason, the
so-called local non-viscous damping (Cundall et al. 1982) –
which affects the block movements, can not be used since which has several advantages including a highly simplified
it would lead to unphysical behavior. Indeed, this artefact contact detection (Alonso-Marroquin 2008). The block
of calculation dissipates energy in an arbitrary manner. shape is defined by a set of vertices interconnected by
It affects both the kinematics of free bodies and bodies that edges (lines) and faces (Fig. 1). The rounded shape is then
interact with each other. defined by sweeping a sphere of radius r along each point
Another solution to introduce dissipative behaviour is of its edges and faces. From a mathematical viewpoint,
to account for a local viscous damping at the contact level our block shapes can be seen as the Minkowsky sum of a
(Cleary and Prakash 2003). This solution has also been set polyhedron with a sphere (Van Den Bergen 2003).
aside because it introduces a viscosity parameter which In practice, the contact position, the overlap and the local
can not be connected to a well-defined dissipation rate in frame are determined by considering a few basic geometric
the case where multiple contacts occur at the same time. computations based on the distances between points, lines
More precisely, the effective mass involved in the critical and planes. This geometric trick allows the contact area
viscosity is not well-defined and should depend on the between sphero-polyhedra to be defined by a set of contact
positions of the contact points and their amount. points resulting from elementary intersection tests involving
In fact, the energy loss may result from very complex the swept sphere radii: (1) vertex-vertex, (2) vertex-edge,
physical mechanisms (heat production, wave propagation. . .) (3) edge-edge, and (4) vertex-face. One can better appreciate
that are beyond our understanding in the case of collective the benefit of this method when considering for example
behavior. For the contact-force laws, we wanted a simple face-face intersection test: it is simply replaced by a set
formulation while incorporating the energy dissipation due of edge-edge and vertex-face tests. The sphero-polyhedra
to block impacts. We opted for minimalist laws where friction method has many other benefits such as the ability to define
and normal damping coefficients are required to dissipate concave and/or hollow shapes. Also, the normal vectors at
the kinetic energy of the blocks. We will see in the sequel contacts are well defined.
that the simple laws proposed here are sufficient to satis-
factorily describe the main rebound patterns even if our
model is obviously not able to reproduce more complex Contact Force Laws
behaviors like e.g. rocking block (Bourgeot et al. 2006).
The interaction model integrates the energy dissipation
related to friction and to normal damping between solids
Block Shapes in contact. The most minimalist formulation we found for
the normal force is a linear elastic law with two different
In the rock avalanche problematic, the shape of the blocks is stiffnesses in case of loading or unloading (Banton et al.
of primary importance and it must be taken into account 2009). This way, the rate of non-restored work of the normal
explicitly in the model. Different strategies are possible force (i.e. the normal restitution parameter en2) after an
(e.g. polyhedra, clumps) but we chosed sphero-polyhedra impact is the ratio between the unloading and the loading
Assessment of Discrete Element Modelling Parameters for Rock Mass Propagation 257
Table 1 Optimal parameters obtained by minimizing an error function

en2 m kn kt/kn
Brick/support 0.53 0.46 105 0.42
Brick/brick 0.13 0.86 105 0.27
Fig. 2 Normal and tangential Force-displacement relations with: hn=

normal interpenetration of the two solids, fn= normal repulsive force, ht
tangential relative displacement between the two solids, ft= ¼ tangen-
tial force. Energy dissipations are represented in grey
stiffnesses. As described in Fig. 2, the other parameters of

the contact law are the Coulomb friction coefficient (m)
and the normal and tangential stiffnesses of the contact
(kn and kt respectively). The number of parameters of a
given contact is therefore equal to four.
Assessment of the Contact Parameters
As an attempt to give the proposed model a predictive

character, the physical parameters of the contact law were
assessed from additional experiments of the impact of a
single brick on a support (clay brick and plastic support
called “forex”, identical to the ones used by the Manzella
Fig. 3 Example of successive steps for the identification of the contacts
and Labiouse 2009). The brick was filmed at 1,000 images parameters (time interval of 20 ms); (a) Camera 1; (b) Camera 2
per second by two high-speed cameras positioned along
orthogonal directions.
After synchronization (impact time is set as the time
origin) and scaling (pixel sizes for each camera), the 2D Validation of the Model on a Small-Scale
trajectories of four vertex points for each camera were Experiment
obtained by means of digital image correlation and made
possible the 3D trajectory reconstruction. The parameters The contact laws and model parameters have been proved
involved in the theoretical trajectory (in particular the as consistent in the case of a single impact, but a validation
velocities before and after the impact) were then optimized is needed to make sure that it is able to predict accurately
by means of an error function that gives a distance measure the behaviour of a granular flow involving a large number of
between the identified trajectory and the theoretical one (that particles. This validation is performed using the experimen-
obey Newton’s second law). Four Brick/Support impacts tal results by Manzella and Labiouse (2009). These authors
and two Brick/Brick impacts were analysed, and the contact realized a series of launches of a large number of bricks on a
parameters were identified for each kind of contact so as to device composed by two rectangular boards (3 m*4 m) of
optimize the trajectories of all the studied impacts. The forex (kind of plastic) linked by a hinge. The first board was
resulting parameters are stored in Table 1. Figure 3 proposes fixed and horizontal while the second was inclined by a user-
more visual results, and describes from left to right the defined angle. A rectangular box (height 20 cm, width
different steps of the parameters assessment: (1) experimen- 40 cm, depth 60 cm) was filled with a given amount of
tation and shooting of the impact, (2) mathematical identifi- material, and positioned at a determined height on the
cation of the trajectory before and after impact, and (3) inclined plane. A trap was open to release the material,
numerical identification of the parameters (stored in Table 1) which propagated on the slope until it eventually deposited
allowing to optimize the simulation of all the experimental on the horizontal plane. The validation proposed here
impacts. Figure 3a and b correspond to the two cameras with focuses on one specific experimentation involving 40 l of
perpendicular axes used for the shooting. randomly poured bricks (size of 3.1 cm*1.5 cm*0.8 cm,
Fig. 4 Layout of the experimental device used in Manzella and Labiouse (2009)
Fig. 5 Perspective view of the avalanche predicted by the numerical model
material density of 17kN/m3, apparent density of 10 kN/m3), bricks corresponds to a rough estimate of the one used
launched on a 45 slope from a height of 1 m. The bricks and in the actual experiment. The simulation starts when the
support were identical to the ones used for the identification lower face of the box is deleted. Figure 5 shows several
of the contact parameters in the previous section. The stages of the simulated avalanche with a time step of
layout of the experiment is represented in Fig. 4, as well 300 ms. The results of the simulation are compared with
as some of the measurements performed on the material the experimental ones in Fig. 6. In Fig. 6a, the shapes of
deposit : length L, runout R, width W, height H, travel the numerical and experimental deposits are compared in
angle fCM (related to the centre of mass before and after terms of their contour in a horizontal and a vertical plane.
the flow), and Fahrböschung fap (related to the extremity A very satisfying correspondence appears for the horizon-
of the deposit as defined by Heim 1932). tal contour and this correspondence is a bit less accurate
This experiment is reproduced numerically with 6,300 bricks for the vertical contour, the numerical deposit having a
randomly poured in the starting box. This number of larger height than the experimental one.
Table 2 Quantitative comparison between the experimental and

numerical deposits
L R W H fCM fap
(cm) (cm) (cm) (cm) ( ) ( )
Experiment 93 84 140 7.5 40 32
Simulation 88.2 82.4 138.3 12.0 40.1 32.2
(in m/s), the angular velocity magnitude (in /s) of the

bricks, and the average stress (in Pa) in the plane of symme-
try of the flow, at different stages of the simulation.
Figure 7a shows that the velocity magnitude of the particles
composing the flow increases regularly while the avalanche
Fig. 6 Comparison between the experimental and numerical results;
(a) Horizontal and vertical contours of the deposit; (b) Velocity of the develops, and decreases suddenly when the flow reaches
avalanche front on the horizontal plane the transition between the two planes. The velocity profile
in a vertical direction appears to be uniform at any abscise
of the flow, and there is no pronounced vertical velocity
Figure 6b presents the evolution of the mass front
gradient. It may be seen on Fig. 7b and c that the magnitudes
velocity on the horizontal plane with respect to the position
of the angular velocity of the bricks and of the average
of this front, as provided by the experimental and numerical
stress are much more important around the angle between
results. The two curves show a good qualitative correspon-
the two planes than in the slope and in the deposit. It
dence. The observed quantitative differences may be linked
seems therefore that the zone of transition between the two
to the inaccuracy of the concept of “mass front”, which
planes induces a brutal reduction of the velocity magnitude,
has no rigorous and objective definition and was determined
but also triggers an important perturbation of the flow by
by different methods in the experimental and numerical
increasing the rotation of the particles and the stress level.
frameworks. Qualitatively, this curve provides some inter-
Moreover, the angular velocity of the bricks accumulating
esting information about the kinematics of the deposit.
on the horizontal plane after the transition is very low,
We first observe a strong reduction of the velocity corres-
while their velocity is uniform on the deposit and decreases
ponding to the first impact of the avalanche on the horizontal
along time until the end of the motion (at t ¼ 1.4 s).
plane (from x ¼ 0 m to x ¼ 0.2 m), then a zone for which
The particles belonging to the accumulated deposit seem
the velocity does not decrease a lot, corresponding to the
therefore to have a slow motion of decelerating translation.
accumulation of the material on the plane (between 0.2 m
This motion is induced by the fact that the particles still
and 0.6 m), and finally an important stage of deceleration
falling on the slope transfer their kinetic energy by “pushing”
until the end of the motion (between 0.6 m and 0.8 m).
the deposit in the transition zone, inducing the stress peak
Table 2 presents a quantitative comparison between the
observed in this area. The displacement of the deposit
dimensions of the deposit provided by the experiment and
ends when this transfer of kinetic energy stops, i.e. when
by the simulation, and shows a very good correspondence
there is no more flow on the slope. This assumption is in
except for the deposit height. This result emphasizes the
good agreement with the experimental and numerical esti-
predictive ability of the proposed numerical model, since
mation of the velocity of the avalanche front (Fig. 6).
this correspondence was achieved by fitting the contact
parameters of single-impact experiments instead of running
a back-analysis on the full-scale experiment. It shows that
Energy Considerations
it is possible to assess the collective behaviour of a large
number of particles if the individual behaviour of each
The analysis of the modes of energy dissipation during the
particle is well-defined.
flow is a relevant investigation tool to determine the relative
importance of each of the parameters of the contact law.
Figure 8 depicts the evolution along time of the repartition
Numerical Study of the Kinematics of the different kinds of energies (potential energy, kinetic
of the Granular Flow energy, dissipated energy) inside the system. At t ¼ 0, there
is no motion and the system only has potential energy
In order to assess the validity of some usual assumptions (in white in Fig. 8). When the flow develops along the
adopted for continuous modelling of granular flows, the inclined plane (from t ¼ 0 to t ¼ 0.64 s), the part of poten-
velocity field, angular velocity field, and stress field inside tial energy decreases and a kinetic energy (shades of grey
the flow are computed using spatial interpolation techniques. in the upper part of the figure) appears, due to the velocity
Figure 7 provides in shades of grey the velocity magnitude of the particles composing the flow. This kinetic energy
Fig. 7 Interpolated fields inside the flow; (a) Velocity magnitude; (b) Angular velocity magnitude; (c) Average stress
decomposed in four categories: Brick-Support frictional

dissipation, Brick-Support normal dissipation, Brick-Brick
frictional dissipation, and Brick-Brick normal dissipation.
After the impact of the avalanche on the horizontal
plane, the kinetic energy reaches a peak and decreases until
the end of the motion, at t ¼ 1.4 s. Meanwhile, there is
an increase of the total rate of energy dissipation (i.e. of
the slope of the envelope of the total energy dissipation),
probably because of the phenomena occurring in the transi-
tion zone and pointed out in the previous section. The
dissipated energy increases until the motion stops, which
corresponds to a dissipation of 100 % of the initial potential
energy. The proportions of the different kinds of energy
dissipations are provided in Fig. 8, and clearly show that,
over the entire event, most of the energy is dissipated by
friction between the support and the bricks (66.2 %), and
by friction between bricks (24.2 %). The dissipations by
normal damping are much less significant.
Fig. 8 Evolution of the energy repartition inside the system The localizations of the different sources of energy dissi-
pation may be found in Fig. 9. To plot this figure, the system
may be decomposed in its components along the axes x, y, was divided in several horizontal slices along the x-axis,
and z, and in rotational energy. Figure 8 shows that only each slice having a width of 0.1 m. The energy dissipations
the components along x and y have a significant value, occurring in each slice were monitored during the simula-
and that the energies along z (lateral spreading of the tion, and the figure provides the cumulated dissipated
granular mass) and in rotation are negligible. energies of each kind and in each slice during the entire flow.
Besides, the sum of the kinetic and potential energies In the two planes of the system (i.e. everywhere except
during the flow is not equal to the initial potential energy in the transition zone around x ¼ 0), the Fig. 9 clearly
because of the energy dissipations (shades of grey in the shows that the energy mostly dissipates by friction between
lower part of the figure). These dissipations are related to the bricks and the support (around 90 % of the total
the contact law depicted in a previous section, and may be energy dissipated). On the inclined plane, the repartition
much more numerous and intense, which leads to the

apparition of energy dissipations by friction and normal
damping between bricks. The downstream part of the
flow (located on the horizontal plane) is slowed down
by the absence of slope, and its motion is only triggered
by the transfer of kinetic energy from the upstream part
of the flow. For the complete event, the proportions of
the different modes of energy dissipation are 66.2 % by
Brick-Support friction, 24.2 % by Brick-Brick friction,
and respectively 8.5 % and 1.1 % by Brick-Brick and
Brick-Support normal damping.
Fig. 9 Localisation along the x-axis of the four sources of energy The proposed model was applied to laboratory
dissipation experiments with simple and controlled geometric
parameters, and must be confronted to more complicated
topographies and block shapes. It is likely that a lack
of this dissipation is roughly uniform, and the dissipation of regularity of the slope may considerably change the
level remains quite low. On the contrary, the transition characteristics of the flow. The procedure of determi-
zone between the two planes exhibits much higher levels nation of the model parameters, which proved relevant
and different modes of dissipation. The larger amount of for laboratory tests, has also to be tested on in-situ block
dissipation by contacts between bricks (either by friction or impacts. Only when this procedure is validated will it
by normal damping) might be related to the phenomena be possible to obtain predictive results for real granular
depicted in the previous section (Fig. 7), i.e. to the apparition flow events such as rock avalanches.
of important rotations of the particles and to high stress
levels because of the flow perturbation induced by the tran-
sition between the two planes. This observation probably
Acknowledgments This study was performed as a part of the European
means that the important proportion of Brick-Support fric- project ALCOTRA-MASSA, with financial support from the European
tional dissipation observed in Fig. 8 is only relevant because Funds For Regional Development (FEDER).
of the perfect regularity of the slope, and that a granular
flow on a slope with important roughness would probably
induce a different repartition of the energy dissipations.
References
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On Controls of Flow-Like Landslide Evolution
by an Erodible Layer
Giovanni B. Crosta, Silvia Imposimato, Dennis Roddeman, and Paolo Frattini
Abstract
The role played by the presence of erodible material along the path of flow-like landslides is
analyzed. The effects of type and physical mechanical properties of materials, thickness
and slope geometry on the runout and the deposit geometry are investigated. Fully 2D
and 3D numerical simulations have been performed representing small scale laboratory
experiments and large scale field examples. The properties adopted for the erodible material
strongly control the evolution of the landslide and the type of occurring mechanisms. These
aspects have a major influence on the results and on the hazard zonation and should be taken
into account.
Keywords
Rock avalanches Erosion Entrapment Modeling FEM 3D Granular flow
Introduction Crosta et al. (2006) show this features and behavior by some
illustrative numerical models evidencing the occurrence of
Flow-like landslides (e.g. debris flow, debris avalanches, shallow erosion, local deposition and ploughing of impacted
flow-slides and rock avalanches) are characterized by high structures and/or obstacles.
velocity and mobility, extremely variable properties and, The material (e.g. soil partially or fully saturated,
frequently, an extreme erosion capability. The result of rock, ice) forming the surface over which the rock/debris
such an erosive power that has been most frequently reported avalanche moves can influence the emplacement
is the increase in volume. Nevertheless, on the basis of field mechanisms and the observed runout distances. The material
and experimental observations, the role of material located can be characterized by different thickness (up to tens or
along the landslide path (substrate material) or temporarily hundreds of meters), physical mechanical properties (e.g.
above the topographic surface (e.g. snow, ice or water) frictional, cohesive, with constant or variable strength, high
in controlling the dynamics of rock- or debris-avalanches or low permeability), and characterized by different mechan-
has been suggested (Hungr and Evans 2004; Crosta 1992; ical behaviour (e.g. collapsible, liquefiable, dilatant). These
Crosta et al. 2006, 2009; Dufresne et al. 2010; Mangeney physical mechanical parameters control, together with those
et al. 2010). The influence on simulation results has been of the moving mass, if the basal material can be entrained,
suggested by various authors (Pitman et al. 2003; Crosta dragged, sheared, ploughed, bulldozed or remain unaffected
et al. 2006, 2009; Chen et al. 2006; Mangeney et al. 2010). by the landslide motion.
Field evidence has been presented for rock and debris
avalanches under different geological and environmental
G.B. Crosta (*) P. Frattini conditions, and entrained volumes have been quantified
Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche e Geotecnologie, Università
degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Milan, Italy
(e.g. McDougall 2006: shallow flows/debris avalanches in
e-mail: [email protected] pyroclastic deposits, erosion rate of 0.010.1 m1; Nomash
S. Imposimato D. Roddeman
river rock slide, erosion rate 1.9 * 103 m1; Zymoetz
FEAT, Maaierhof 27, 6418 JL Heerlen, The Netherlands River: 500,000 m3 at an erosion rate of 3.3 * 104 m1;

264 G.B. Crosta et al.
Hungr and Evans 2004, suggest total entrainment values up et al. 2009) demonstrates that dragging occurs at the base of
to 10 times the original failure volume; Crosta et al. 2004, the moving material and that no real mixing between the two
for the Val Pola rock avalanche report an entrainment of materials occurs along the contact surface.
about 8 Mm3 or 20 % of the initial volume; Chen et al. 2006
estimate an increase in volume of more than 10 times for
shallow debris avalanches along alpine slopes). Rock slide/ Numerical Models
avalanche processes along steep rocky cliffs have been
observed to trigger large slumping/entrainment within the To validate the model and to extend the analysis to materials
talus slopes. Crosta (1992) observed a 0.15 * 106 m3 rock with different shear strength, we modelled the collapse of a
slide/avalanche which entrained 0.25 * 106 m3 of preva- granular column with variable aspect ratio (height/width,
lently dry material while moving along a 35 inclined scree 0.6–20) and variable friction angle and thickness of the
slope deposit. Similar processes have been observed for erodible layer. The internal friction angle of the basal erod-
snow avalanches ible layer was varied (from 10 to 30 ), as well as thickness
We studied the influence of these controlling charac- (0.2–0.5 m) and initial column height (0.6 m). We use a
teristics by running a series of fully 2D and 3D simulations particular combination of Eulerian–Lagrangian methods
to get a more complete understanding of the processes (Roddeman 2008; Crosta et al. 2003, 2005, 2009) which
and local effects on material spreading and redistribution. does not distort the FE mesh and guarantees accurate calcu-
Laboratory scale experimental tests with granular columns lation results. The code can describe the large deformations
on erodible layers and a real case study have been simulated and sliding of landslide material, filled or not filled with
to calibrate and validate the finite element modeling code. groundwater. We neglect nonlinear soil behaviour, cracking
phenomena and partial groundwater saturation.
The numerical model uses isoparametric finite elements
Materials and Methods for space discretisation. We typically apply three-noded
triangles in 2D, and eight-noded hexahedrals in 3D. For
Laboratory Experiments the 2D calculations we used 40.000 to 150.000 triangular
three-node elements to discretize the 2D space with a mean
The collapse of a granular column has been recognized as a element size ranging between 0.004 m and 0.01 m. An
phenomenon useful for studying transient granular flow implicit Euler time stepping, with automatic time step
conditions at the laboratory scale. This process is similar to adjustment is adopted. The initial equilibrium stress state is
the well known dam break problem but involves a granular reached through quasi-static time stepping. The initial move-
material. Well detailed experiments performed by releasing ment is triggered by either lowering cohesion in time or
different types of granular materials on inclined channels/ imposing an external perturbation, or deleting a lateral con-
slopes, and adopting different geometries have been described strain (as for the granular column). A predefined failure
in the literature (Lajeunesse et al. 2005; Lube et al. 2004, surface (as for the Arvel case study) is not always required.
2005, 2007; Balmforth and Kerswell 2005; Mangeney- We assume an elasto-plastic material and a Mohr-Coulomb
Castelnau et al. 2007). The results of these tests have been yield rule.
compared both with qualitative and theoretical models, aimed In the case of an erodible layer characterized by a low
at finding general scaling laws or at testing depth averaged internal friction angle (10 ) the front of the advancing mate-
shallow water and particle mechanics models. rial is thinner than for the case of spreading on a hard smooth
To generalize the adopted approach and test its validity frictional surface.
for real case studies it is necessary to consider the presence Initially, the collapsing material sinks within the erodible
of an erodible layer along the spreading surface. Few tests of bed, without evident differences for the different layer
this type, performed at different scales and under different thicknesses (20 or 50 cm), and successively it slightly runs
conditions, have been published (Mangeney-Castelnau et al. up and over the material removed from the erodible layer
2007; Crosta et al. 2008a, b, 2009; Mangeney et al. 2010; and pushed at the flow front.
Iverson et al. 2011). Sinking and ploughing tend to disappear with increasing
Experimental results demonstrate the effect of an erodible internal friction angle values. For a 30 material no sinking
basal layer in reducing generally the material runout. and erosion are observed and no material is pushed in the
Measured runout distances (Crosta et al. 2009) are always front (Fig. 1). No migration of the interface between static
shorter than for the case of smooth basal surface and shorter and flowing material is observed for the case of a basal layer
also for the case of a rough channel base, this last case being with low values of internal friction angle. On the contrary,
characterized by a strong agitation, bouncing and projection the migration of the interface is observed when no scouring
of the particles at the front. Particle velocimetry (PIV, Crosta and ploughing occurs along a layer characterized by higher
On Controls of Flow-Like Landslide Evolution by an Erodible Layer 265
Simulations have been run along both horizontal and

inclined (at 10 , 16 and 22 ) channels. The material has
been modelled as a Mohr-Coulomb material characterized
by a friction angle of 26 and a very low cohesion variable
between 0 and 24 Pa for channels inclined from 0 up to 22 .
In any case this value is quite low when considered for
example against the initial vertical stress at the base of the
column (e.g. for the case of an horizontal plane equals
1,300 Pa). One more series of simulations has been run by
considering the presence of a 4.6 mm thick erodible layer
placed directly on a smooth channel surface. Channel incli-
nation affects both the maximum velocity and the duration
of the flow. Maximum runout distance increases by 5 times
passing from a 0 to 22 inclination, while maximum veloc-
ity increases of about 30 % and total duration doubles.
By comparing the numerical results with those from these
sets of experiments an almost perfect coincidence occurs
with the dataset by Mangeney et al. (2010), whereas some
differences are evident with Lube et al. (2005) dataset.
The case of a channel covered by a thin erodible layer
and inclined at an angle close to the repose angle of the
granular material could simulate some natural condition for
a flow over a previously deposited thin layer of material. We
observe that the erosion depth is close to the layer thickness
at the beginning but decreases progressively toward the front
as this moves forward. This decrease together with the
dragging of the eroded material along the interface between
the falling mass and the erodible layer, generates along the
interface a wave-like feature which slowly moves forward.
Much more difficult is the simulation of the runout along
an erodible layer in metastable conditions as experienced in
the laboratory by Mangeney et al. (2010). This is still a
research subject under development.
Fig. 1 Numerical results for 2D granular column (initial height, Hini,

initial width, Lini, f ¼ internal friction angle of column material)
collapse simulations. The free surface and the basal interface, Arvel Case Study
separating static and flowing material, at different time steps are
drawn. Effects of basal layer properties and geometry on the runout The Arvel landslide (ca 0.6 Mm3; March 14, 1922,
and erosion are shown Switzerland, Choffat 1929; Jaboyedoff 2003; Crosta et al.
2008a, b; Figs. 2 and 3) affected a 120 m high steep rocky
friction angles. This demonstrate a major difference in flow cliff of a limestone quarry. The rockfall/rock-avalanche was
behaviour that is worth to be modelled and that is not easily characterized by a simple geometry, a steep source and a flat
implemented in shallow water approaches. The maximum propagation, erosion and deposition areas, occupied by allu-
velocity is higher for the case of higher internal friction vial deposits with a water table located few metres below the
angle even if the motion stops earlier than for the cases surface. The maximum horizontal distance, from the top of
with lower friction. the main scarp to the extreme tip of the deposit, and the total
This is probably the result of the minimized or null maximum drop height were about 337 and 240 m, respec-
sinking, entrainment and material plowing by the moving tively (35.5 fahrboschung). The deposit thickness ranged
mass. On the contrary, we observe that the increase in the between 6 and 24 m. As a consequence of the deposition, the
internal friction angle of the erodible layer causes a decrease alluvial deposits were affected by faulting, thrusting and
in the final runout, and the formation of a slightly thicker toe folding over an area of about 8 ha and up to 340 m beyond
of the deposit. the front of the landslide deposit (total fahrboschung 19.5 ).
This general setting resembles that of the collapse of a

granular step, with an aspect ratio of 3.2, spreading along a
flat horizontal surface covered by an erodible material.
To verify the similarities between the small scale and
large scale collapse behaviours, and the capabilities of the
approach for hazard assessment, we ran 2D simulations
along a longitudinal profile used by Choffat (1929, Fig. 3)
to represent field observations. We assumed a maximum
thickness of 30 m for the alluvial deposits and the adopted
properties are summarized within Fig. 3. The role of the
presence of water within the alluvial deposits and of the
excess pore pressures induced by the impact of the rock
fall have been examined in Crosta et al. (2008b) and are
summarized in the following. The upper scarp is narrower
than the rest of the detachment zone and the deposit has a fan
like geometry. This geometry introduces a certain 3D effect
in material redistribution.
2D: Numerical Results
The landslide mass moves along the failure surface with

minimal erosion along the talus slope located immediately
below the rocky cliff. Erosion starts when the dry alluvial
deposit is encountered (Fig. 3). The thin layer of eroded
Fig. 2 Arvel rockfall/rock avalanche. Landslide debris and the sector
alluvial material is pushed with an almost vertical front.
of the alluvial deposits affected by the thrusting and ploughing action of and it is subsequently folded over and overcome by the
the landslide are shown. Pre- and post-failure positions of roads and landslide debris (Fig. 3). A rapid decrease in the velocity
buildings, and fracturing within the alluvial deposits are presented of the landslide mass is observed at the impact against the
alluvial material and this causes an evident slowing down of
the rear part of the mass. Finally, the slide debris moves on
the ploughed alluvial material with a sub-horizontal contact,
30–40 m long, while a slight rotational instability occurs at
the front. Velocity distribution within the landslide and
eroded materials has been analyzed in more detail both for
dry and saturated conditions by Crosta et al. (2008a). The
motion lasts for about 20 s. The main differences that can be
recognized with respect to Choffat’s profile (Fig. 3) consist
in the rear limit along the slope and in the thickness of
the final deposit. Both these features can be controlled by
the three dimensional effects or out of plane spreading of the
real landslide deposit (Fig. 2) that is not considered in the 2D
simulations. Eventually, the back of the final deposit passes
the rear limit mapped by Choffat suggesting a too high
energy of the material in this sector when the front comes
to rest. This could be partly the result of lack of third
dimension in the model.
By comparing the final geometries resulting from simu-
Fig. 3 Map of the Arvel rockfall/rock avalanche. Landslide debris lations considering dry and saturated alluvial deposits with
and the sector of the alluvial deposits affected by the thrusting and the geometry observed by Choffat we note that for:
ploughing action of the landslide are shown. Pre- and post-failure
positions of roads and buildings, and fracturing within the alluvial – Dry materials: the landslide mass remains compact with a
deposits are presented. Table summarises the properties values adopted surface characterized by a regular slope. The tail reaches
for the analyses the lowest elevation and the front the shortest distance.
The maximum erosion depth is the lowest among the In general, the results show that:
values from the different models. – The thickness of the alluvial layer is inversely related to
– Saturated materials (Crosta et al. 2008b): the deposit is landslide runout; for the 100 m thick layer most of the
thick but the upper surface is concave. The model is in landslide material stops at the slope toe;
good agreement with field observations in terms of – The deposit area increases for decreasing thickness of the
erosion, maximum debris distance and longer alluvial erodible layer;
deposit remobilization. – The maximum deposit thickness does not depend on the
The maximum velocities (from 24 to 26 m s1) are alluvial layer thickness (e.g. for the 10, 25 and 100 m
computed for all the simulations at the toe of the rocky layers, the maximum thickness values are 36, 34 and
cliff and along the initial part of the alluvial deposits. In all 36 m respectively);
the simulations we observe a rapid freezing of the moving – The deformation is more spread within thicker and more
mass and a final pattern of the velocities showing a sub- frictional materials, resulting in smaller changes in eleva-
circular front instability. This seems comparable with field tion of the initially flat valley surface;
observations of secondary slope instabilities within the land- – The radial pattern of deformation is well developed
slide deposit. The analysis of the velocity distribution within through all the models;
the landslide and alluvial materials shows that the moving – The maximum elevation is observed, for the cohesive
mass is sheared at its interior and that in the later stages tends model, before the final arrest of the landslide mass and
to move “rigidly” shearing at the contact with the alluvial subsequent readjustments at the propagating front control
mattress. the final topography.
3D: Numerical Results

Discussion
As stated above, the 3D constrains can strongly control the
landslide behaviour altering the final geometry. The Arvel From the performed simulations we observe that:
case study evidences this 3D dependency and Choffat’s – The characteristics and conditions of materials that can
detailed observations can be used to verify the model perfor- be entrained strongly control the evolution of rock and
mance as well as to analyse the influence of the main debris avalanches; in fact, both the initial impact and the
controlling factors, both physical and geometrical. temporary, and final geometry of the landslide debris/
We prepared a series of 3D models to carry out fully alluvial deposit contact surface, change with material
3D numerical analyses, by using 330.000 hexahedrons, properties (or assumed conditions);
8 m 8 m and 2 m in thickness. The mechanical properties – Undrained loading plays a relevant role but it is not
have been modified in the simulations to model alluvial limited at the debris-alluvial deposits interface and its
deposits as a Mohr-Coulomb material ranging from almost effect on mobility is counteracted by the erodibility of
purely frictional (r ¼ 16 kN/m3; n ¼ 0.23, f ¼ 20 –14 , the alluvial deposits;
c ¼ 100–5 kPa) to almost purely cohesive (r ¼ 16 kN/m3; – Both velocity and thickness of the entrained/pushed
n ¼ 0.4, c ¼ 50 kPa), and to simulate a drained to an almost materials increase with saturation (Crosta et al. 2008b);
completely undrained behaviour. Properties of the landslide – Different behaviours should be expected as a function
material have been maintained constant (r ¼ 20 kN/m3; of depth of alluvial/erodible deposits, volume of the
n ¼ 0.23, f ¼ 38 to 33 , c ¼ 50 kPa). Model geometry rock avalanche, degree of saturation, mechanical and
has been modified by introducing different thicknesses for hydraulic properties;
the alluvial material covering the valley bottom. – Different modes of material entrainment have been
Three main thickness values have been adopted: 10, 25 observed in the field and have been replicated by simula-
and 100 m. We adopted this wide range of values to simu- tion (Figs. 4 and 5); in fact, the formation of both wedges,
late: the general control played by the layer thickness on limited by sharp shear zones, and folds of alluvial debris
internal structures and material spreading; the presence of by the bulldozing effect at the front of the rock avalanche
strong layers acting as hard non erodible materials, able to material, the basal dragging, and a partial mixing at the
limit the maximum sinking and excavation of the landslide; front have been simulated. Mixing can induce further
the influence on the type of mechanism which characterises changes in behaviour.
the landslide propagation and deformation of the alluvial – In presence of saturated sediments the erosive process is
deposits. more intense, the runout is longer and the deformation of
Results of the presented 3D simulations (see 3D in Fig. 4

and for a longitudinal cross section along the landslide axis,
in Fig. 5) reveal that:
– Stronger basal layers are associated to smaller erosion,
ploughing and other interaction features (Fig. 1) but this
should be tested for a wider spectrum of slope and slide
geometries and material properties;
– Spreading along thin basal layers sloping downhill
causes basal dragging of the material with wave-like
features and capturing of the basal material along
reverse-like faults;
– A decrease in the thickness of the erodible horizontal layer
increases the total runout in the performed simulations;
this can result from the sinking of the landslide mass
within the thicker basal material;
– Maximum deposit thickness remains grossly constant even
when changing basal layer thickness and the computed
values are very close to the measured ones, demonstrating
the role of 3D effects;
– The invasion area increases for decreasing basal layer
thickness; this seems related to the reduced sinking of
the landslide mass at the slope toe;
– For a 10 m basal layer the landslide deposit elongates in
flow direction;
– Internal deformation of the basal layer is recorded in the
form of folding for a thick frictional material but with
minimum displacements for the property values adopted
in this series of simulations;
– A cohesive undrained-like behaviour favours the forma-
tion of wedges and bulging in the alluvial deposit at the
front of the landslide material.
Conclusions
Fully 3D simulation of the avalanche and basal layer
interaction is an innovative and open research topic.
Fig. 4 Velocity field (m s1) for three models considering different The same approach can been applied to estimate the
thickness of the alluvial layer: 25 m cohesive, 25 m frictional and 100 m
frictional (from top to bottom). Radial propagation of the deformation spreading of an expected rock avalanche for hazard zon-
within the alluvial material is evident. A sort of wedge is raised in front ing. The advantages of the proposed approach consist in:
of the landslide for the first case of thinner layer. A more spread and the capability to directly simulate internal deformation,
wavy pattern is observed for more frictional and thicker layers the interaction with structures and other materials, the use
of standard and advanced geomechanical models and
alluvial deposits moves farther to the front of the parameters. This is an interesting step forward in numeri-
rock-fall–avalanche debris (Crosta et al. 2008b). cal modelling of such phenomena, where depth averaged
The excess pore pressures generated within the allu- models adopt entrainment models based on empirical and
vial deposits, and computed by considering volumetric semi-empirical laws without directly considering physi-
compression, moves rapidly at the front of the moving land- cal and mechanical properties and the modes of interac-
slide mass. tion between flowing and static materials.
Observed differences between 2D and field evidences can The success at modelling granular flows has been
result by neglecting the role of 3D effects and the local demonstrated (see also Crosta et al. 2009). This is partic-
variability of alluvial properties. This 3D variability is ularly clear when considering for example that the flow
suggested by data presented by Choffat, which shows spatial following the collapse of a granular column has been
variability of deposit thickness, shape and deformation. simulated directly using the material properties without
Fig. 5 Velocity field (m s1) for 2 models considering different alluvial material and the consequent formation of a frontal bulge/
thickness and mechanical properties of the alluvial layer: (top) 25 m, wedge. The second model demonstrates the possible folding of the
only cohesive (bottom) 100 m, frictional. The first model puts in alluvial material and the deformation distributed within the entire layer
evidence the thrusting action played by the landslide mass on the
calibration as often requested by particle flow or shallow

water equation codes. References
Present and future efforts are directed at simulating
the role of collapsible or meta-stable materials/layers, Balmforth NJ, Kerswell RR (2005) Granular collapse in two
dimensions. J Fluid Mech 538:399
the effects of changes in the slope inclination along the
Chen H, Crosta GB, Lee CF (2006) Erosional effects on runout of fast
transport/propagation zone, the combination of features landslides, debris flows and avalanches: a numerical investigation.
forming at varying the physical mechanical properties Geotechnique 56(5):305–322
(hydraulic diffusivity, friction and cohesion, etc.) Choffat P (1929) L’ecroulement d’Arvel (Villeneuve) de 1922. Bull
Soc Vaudoise Sci Nat 57(1):5–28
Crosta G (1992) An example of unusual complex landslide: from a
rockfall to a dry granula flow. Geol Romana 30:175–184
Acknowledgments This study has been partially funded by the EC Crosta GB, Imposimato S, Roddeman DG (2003) Numerical modelling
Safeland Project, GA No.: 226479, Living with landslide risk in Europe: of large landslides stability and runout. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci
Assessment, effects of global change, and risk management strategies. 3(6):523–538
Crosta GB, Chen H, Lee CF (2004) Replay of the 1987 Val Pola Jaboyedoff M (2003) The rockslide of Arvel caused by human activity
Landslide, Italian Alps. Geomorphology 60(1–2):127–146 (Villeneuve, Switzerland): Summary, partial reinterpretation and
Crosta GB, Imposimato S, Roddeman D, Chiesa S, Moia F (2005) Small comments of the work of Choffat, Ph. (1929): L’écroulement
fast moving flow-like landslides in volcanic deposits: the 2001 Las d’Arvel (Villeneuve) de 1922. Bull. SVSN 57, 5–28. Quanterra
Colinas Landslide (El Salvador). Eng Geol 79(3–4):185–214 OPEN-FILE REPORT3
Crosta GB, Imposimato S, Roddeman DG (2006) Continuum numerical Lajeunesse E, Monnier JB, Homsy GM (2005) Granular slumping on a
modelling of flow-like landslides. In: Evans SG, Scarascia horizontal surface. Phys Fluids 17:103302
Mugnozza G, Strom A, Hermanns R (eds) NATO ARW, landslides Lube G, Huppert H, Sparks S, Hallworth M (2004) Axisymmetric
from massive rock slope failure, vol 49, NATO science series, earth collapse of granular columns. J Fluid Mech 508:175–199
and environmental sciences. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 211–232 Lube G, Huppert H, Sparks S, Freundt A (2005) Collapses of two-
Crosta GB, Imposimato S, Roddeman DG (2008a) Approach to dimensional granular columns. Phys Rev E 72:041301
numerical modelling of long runout landslides. In: Proceeding Inter- Lube G, Huppert H, Sparks S, Freundt A (2007) Static and flowing
national forum on landslide disaster management, landslide runout regions in granular collapses down channels. Phys Fluids
analysis benchmarking exercise, GCO, Hong Kong, Dec 2007, 20p 19:043301
Crosta GB, Imposimato S, Roddeman DG (2008b) Numerical Mangeney A, Roche O, Hungr O, Mangold N, Faccanoni G, Lucas A
modelling of entrainment/deposition in rock and debris-avalanches. (2010) Erosion and mobility in granular collapse over sloping beds.
Eng Geol 109(1–2):135–145 J Geophys Res – Earth Surface 115:F03040
Crosta GB, Imposimato S, Roddeman D (2009) Numerical modeling of Mangeney-Castelnau A, Tsimring LS, Volfson D, Aranson IS,
2-D granular step collapse on erodible and nonerodible surface. Bouchut B (2007) Avalanche mobility induced by the presence
J Geophys Res 114:F03020 of an erodible bed and associated entrainment. Geophys Res Lett
Dufresne A, Davies TR, McSaveney MJ (2010) Influence of runout- 34:L22401
path material on emplacement of the round top rock avalanche New McDougall S (2006) A new continuum dynamic model for the analysis
Zealand. Earth Surf Proc Land 35:190–201 of extremely rapid landslide motion across complex 3D terrain.
Hungr O, Evans SG (2004) Entrainment of debris in rock avalanches; Ph.D. thesis, The University of British Columbia, 253p
an analysis of a long run-out mechanism. Geol Soc Am Bull 116 Pitman EB, Nichita CC, Patra AK, Bauer AC, Bursik M, Webb A
(9–10):1240–1252 (2003) A numerical study of granular flows on erodible surfaces.
Iverson RM, Reid ME, Logan M, LaHusen RG, Godt JW, Griswold JP Discrete Contin Dyn Syst Ser B 3:589–599
(2011) Positive feedback and momentum growth during debris-flow Roddeman DG (2008) TOCHNOG user’s manual. FEAT, 255p,
entrainment of wet bed sediment. Nat Geosci 4:116–121 www.feat.nl/manuals/user/user.html
Influence of Bed Curvature on the Numerical
Modelling of Unconstrained Granular Materials
Gabriele Pisani, Marina Pirulli, Vincent Labiouse, and Claudio Scavia
Abstract
This paper deals with the theoretical-numerical and experimental analysis of dry rock
avalanches moving down a chute.
Depth-averaged field equations of balance of mass and momentum as prescribed by
Savage and Hutter (1991) are implemented in the RASH3D code. They describe the temporal
evolution of the depth averaged velocity and the distribution of the avalanche depth. A
Coulomb-type mechanical behavior of the mass is assumed. To incorporate the curvature
effects of the bed, the centripetal acceleration term has been here implemented in the code.
Carried out experiments consist in the release of granular material on an inclined plane
that is connected to a horizontal run-out zone through a sharp transition. Comparison
of the experimental findings with the computational results proved that neglecting the
centripetal acceleration term can have the effect of leading to errors in the determination of
the well fitted friction angle. In particular, an overestimation of the computed dynamic
friction angle respect to its measured value is observed.
Keywords
Granular flow Runout Numerical modelling Physical experiments Centripetal
acceleration
Introduction
In the past few years new mathematical descriptions for the

motion of rockslides and avalanches have been presented.
Several of these models have included innovations that have
significantly advanced both our ability to simulate real
G. Pisani (*)
Department of Structural and Geotechnical Engineering, Politecnico
events and our fundamental understanding of rapid landslide
di Torino, C.so Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, Torino, Italy processes.
School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering (ENAC),
Some significant challenges still remain as we move
Laboratory for Rock Mechanics (LMR), École Polytechnique Fédérale towards more accurate and objective runout prediction
de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland using continuum dynamic models (e.g. Chen and Lee
e-mail: [email protected] 2000; McDougall and Hungr 2004; Denlinger and Inverson
M. Pirulli C. Scavia 2004; Pastor et al. 2004; Pirulli 2005). One of the most
Department of Structural and Geotechnical Engineering, Politecnico important challenges is how to select and calibrate the
di Torino, C.so Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, Torino, Italy
input rheological parameters.
V. Labiouse Without going into detailed rheological assumptions,
School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering (ENAC),
Laboratory for Rock Mechanics (LMR), École Polytechnique Fédérale
which would be rather uncertain due to the lack of a physical
de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne, Switzerland understanding of the actual forces acting in debris

272 G. Pisani et al.
avalanches, among the characteristics that make such flows

quite specific it is here investigated the role that the quite
steep and rough topography can play. At this regard, the
centripetal acceleration has to be considered and numeri-
cally implemented in the balance equations.
At first the experimental set-up used to validate the
obtained numerical results is described. Then, the basic
equations and conservation laws which govern the evolu-
tion of granular avalanches along a realistic topography,
when depth averaged Saint Venant equations are used,
are presented. Particular attention is devoted to the theoret-
ical formulation necessary for the centripetal acceleration
numerical implementation.
A comparison of the theoretical findings with the experi-
ments is finally given to demonstrate which consequences
can occur if the centripetal acceleration effect is neglected in
rheological parameter calibration.
Description of the Laboratory Experiments
Below a description is given of the small scale laboratory

apparatus planned and constructed at the Rock Mechanics
Laboratory of EPFL (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Fig. 1 Lateral (a) and horizontal (b) view of experimental set-up and
laboratory measurements (Manzella and Labiouse 2009)
Lausanne) to study the runout of dry rock avalanches.
The experimental set-up mainly consists of two rectangu-
Table 1 Characteristics of released material (Manzella 2008;
lar panels joined by either a curved (curvature radius of
Manzella and Labiouse 2009). ji ¼ gravel internal friction angle
50 cm) or a sharp transition to the bottom of the slope
d [mm] D90 [mm] g [kN/m3] j i [ ] jstatic [ ] jdynamic [ ]
(Fig. 1). The first panel is horizontally fixed on a concrete
0.5–4 2 14.3 34 1 28 1 23.5 0.5
floor slab and the second one can change its inclination.
A wooden box (height width length ¼ 20 cm 40
cm 65 cm) is placed on the inclined panel and is used to Table 2 Test conditions for analysed experiments (Manzella 2008)
store the material to be released. The granular material a [ ] H [m] V [l] Transition [-]
placed in the box is then released by opening the downward 45.0 1.0 40 sharp
box gate in an almost instantaneous way, so allowing the
material directly slip on the panel surface.
Each test is filmed by a digital high speed camera placed The considered experiment consists in the release of a
at a height of about 5 m over the horizontal panel (Manzella volume (V) of gravel of 40 l, from a falling height (H) of 1 m
and Labiouse 2008). on a surface with a slope angle (a) of 45 . As already
Final deposit characteristics such as runout R, length L mentioned, the junction between the inclined and the hori-
and width W are manually measured with a tape, while zontal planes is sharp. Test conditions are summarised in
the deposit morphology and position of its centre of mass Table 2.
XCM are defined by means of the fringe projection method
(Manzella 2008).
In the present paper results obtained releasing aquarium
gravel from the above mentioned box, when runout surfaces The RASH3D Code
are covered with forex, and in case of sharp transition between
the two panels, are used to numerically investigate the effect of The RASH3D code (Pirulli 2005) originates from a pre-
centripetal acceleration in computing energy dissipation. existing continuum mechanics model (SHWCIN) in which
The gravel static (jstatic) and dynamic (jdynamic) basal the governing equations are solved in an Eulerian framework
friction angles, measured through tilting tests, together with on a triangular finite element mesh through a kinetic scheme
physical and mechanical characteristics are summarised in based on a finite volume approach (Audusse et al. 2000;
Table 1. Bristeau et al. 2001; Mangeney-Castelnau et al. 2003).
Influence of Bed Curvature on the Numerical Modelling of Unconstrained Granular. . . 273
The real heterogeneous mass is compared to an incom- the curvature effect has been recently implemented in
pressible equivalent fluid whose behaviour is described by RASH3D (Pisani et al. in prep.) by adding a term involving
balance equations of mass and momentum. By assuming that the curvature radius of the bed profile R in the momentum
the flow thickness is much smaller than its characteristics equations, that is modifying (4) as follows:
length, the code integrates the balance equations in depth
obtaining the so-called depth-averaged continuum flow vi
tziði¼x;yÞ ¼ mr h gz þ ac;i (5)
model (Savage and Hutter 1989), and the general system of kvk
equations to be solved, written in a reference frame linked to
the topography, becomes as follows: where ac,i is the centripetal acceleration in the considered i
direction.
@h Due to topographic deflection (i.e., changing in bed
þ divðh
vÞ ¼ 0 (1)
@t slope), the apparent weight of the moving mass increases
0 and the resistance due to basal sliding friction is modified.
1
@ ðhvx Þ @ hv2x @ hvx vy A Where the bed slope decreases (i.e., in the curved transition
r@ þ þ between the inclined and the horizontal planes), the external
@t @x @y
reaction force provided by the underlying surface (assumed
@ ðhsxx Þ
to be infinitely massive and immobile) increases the bed
¼ þ tzx rgx h (2) normal stress by an amount of rhv2i =Ri , where v2i =Ri ¼
@x
ac;i (see (5)).
0 1
In the analysed experiment (see } Experimental set-up),
@ hv @ hv v @ hv2y
r@ A
y x y the local curvature radius in the y direction tends to infinity
þ þ
@t @x @y and the y component of bed curvature consequently tends
to zero, i.e. (5) simplifies to (4) in the limits Ry ! 1 and
@ hsyy ac;y ! 0, that is applicable to planar beds.
¼ þ tzy rgy h (3)
@y
where h is the flow normal depth, r is the mass density,

vðx; y; z; tÞ ¼ vx ðx; y; z; tÞ; vy ðx; y; z; tÞ is the depth-averaged Numerical Modelling of a Laboratory
flow velocity vector in the reference frame (x,y,z), sxx ðx; y; z; tÞ Experiment
and syy ðx; y; z; tÞare the depth-averaged component of the
Cauchy stress tensor, gx and gy are the projection of the gravity The RASH3D code is here used to numerically simulate the
vector along the x and y directions respectively and tzx and tzy results obtained in laboratory for the experiment whose
are the shear resistance stresses in the x and y directions, characteristics are resumed in Table 2.
respectively. In particular, the role of centripetal acceleration is
The complex rheology of the granular material is incor- investigated running numerical analyses with and without
porated into a single term which describes the basal shear the centripetal acceleration term and comparing obtained
stress that develops at the interface between the flowing results.
mass and the sliding surface. Among different rheologies, a
basal cohesionless Coulomb-type friction law was assumed
in the present study:
Comparison Between Numerical and Laboratory
vi Results
tziði¼x;yÞ ¼ mrgi h (4)
kv k
Three steps are necessary to run numerical analyses with
where the basal shear stress is related to the normal stress RASH3D: (1) implementing the mesh for the topography of
through the coefficient of friction m ¼ tanj, where j is the the study area, (2) defining the initial volume geometry
dynamic basal friction angle. and (3) selecting the rheology and calibrating its rheological
parameters.
In the studied case a mesh with a 2 cm grid spacing was
Centripetal Acceleration Effect defined. A higher resolution was used at the sharp transition
and for the triggering volume definition.
Equation (4) is obtained neglecting the curvature term. But, Due to the characteristics of the released material a sim-
curvature effects lead to an additional friction force linked to ple frictional rheology was assumed. This required only the
centripetal acceleration. According to McDougall (2006), calibration of the dynamic friction angle j.
274 G. Pisani et al.
The first set of analyses was carried out neglecting the 1.0
centripetal acceleration term, that is (4) is adopted in the a
resolution of the implemented balance equations. 0.8
The best fit results in terms of deposit shape and longitu-
dinal profile was obtained assuming a dynamic friction angle 0.6
equal to 34.5 .
Obtained results evidence that the model has some 0.4
problems in fitting the shape of the deposit in plan view
even if the position of the rear and of the front are quite 0.2
respected (Fig. 2a). On the contrary, if the longitudinal
Y [m]
profile is analysed a good distribution of the thickness can 0.0
be observed together with a quite good approximation of the
centre of gravity position (Fig. 2b). -0.2
Moving to the version of RASH3D in which the centripe-
tal acceleration is implemented, that is (5) is adopted, the -0.4
above mentioned geometry and mesh characteristics were
used. But, in this case the calibration of the dynamic friction -0.6
angle evidenced that the best fit result is obtained with a
value of j ¼ 23 .
-0.8
Obtained results evidence that the model fits quite well
the shape of the deposit in plan view (Fig. 2a) but some
-1.0
problems emerge if the longitudinal profile is analysed 0.2
b
Z [m]
(Fig. 2b). In fact, the centre of gravity does not coincide 0.1
with the measured one and the deposit proximal part par- 0
tially deposits on the inclined surface. -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Comparison between numerical results obtained with and X[m]
without the centripetal acceleration term has evidenced that Fig. 2 Comparison between numerical and experimental results. Black
when the centripetal acceleration term is not taken into line and black circle: experimental data; Blue line and blue symbol:
account, i.e. when the topography shape does not slow numerical results obtained with ac ¼ 0, j ¼ 34.5 ; Red line and red
down the granular material, a higher value of the friction symbol: numerical results obtained with ac 6¼ 0, j ¼ 23
angle is necessary to correctly stop the mass.
As a consequence, dropping its effect can lead to unveri- The RASH3D code is based on Savage and Hutter’s
fiable error in the determination of the well fitted friction equations and the moving mass behavior can be described
angle because the tuned parameter obtained for fitting a using a Coulomb-type friction law with a constant friction
runout distance may be dependent on these local effects angle, j.
(Mangeney-Castelnau et al. 2003). The comparison between numerical and laboratory
The present work has particularly evidenced that, using results has evidenced that the calibrated friction angle is
the centripetal acceleration term, the value of the computed close to the value of the dynamic friction angle measured
friction angle is close to the value of the dynamic friction in laboratory when the centripetal acceleration term is
angle measured in laboratory (Table 1). This physical mean- considered in the implemented equations. On the con-
ing disappears if centripetal acceleration is neglected (i.e. trary, if the centripetal acceleration term is neglected,
j ¼ 34.5 ). the value of the friction angle necessary to properly stop
the mass has to be higher since it has to take also into
account the energy dissipation that in reality is due to the
Conclusions above mentioned term.
In the present paper the effect of centripetal acceleration Based on these observations the current work is
in a flow dynamics and consequently in the calibration of intended to extend the application of the numerical
the parameter of a selected rheology is investigated. model to a larger number of laboratory tests. In particular,
To this aim the numerical model RASH3D has been it is expected that a change in the laboratory apparatus
used to numerically simulate results obtained in a labora- geometry (i.e. a different volume, falling high or
tory test where a granular mass is released on a 45 surface slope angle), released material and cover of the
inclined plane that, in the lower part, is joined to a runout surface being unchanged, the value of the dynamic
horizontal surface through a sharp transition. friction angle should remain the same.
Influence of Bed Curvature on the Numerical Modelling of Unconstrained Granular. . . 275
However, some problems still remain and are based on Saint Venant equations using a kinetic scheme. J Geophys
evidenced by the impossibility of simulating the deposit ResSolid Earth 108(B11):2527
Manzella I (2008) Dry rock avalanche propagation: unconstrained flow
profile in a correct way (Fig. 2b). This aspect has to be experiments with granular materials and blocks at small scale. Ph.D.
further investigated and some considerations on the role thesis 4032, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne,
of the “shock” effect for the particular geometry consid- Switzerland
ered are still necessary. Manzella I, Labiouse V (2008) Qualitative analysis of rock avalanches
propagation by means of physical modelling of not constrained
gravel flows. Rock Mech Rock Eng J 41(1):133–151
Acknowledgments The authors wish to thank Anne Mangeney Manzella I, Labiouse V (2009) Flow experiments with gravel and
(IPGP, France) and Marie-Odile Bristeau (INRIA, France) for having blocks at small scale to investigate parameters and mechanisms
offered the use of the SHWCIN code and for having helped to solve involved in rock avalanches. Eng Geol 109(1):146–158
some fundamental numerical problems. McDougall S (2006) A new continuum dynamic model for the analysis
of extremely rapid landslide motion across complex 3D terrain. Ph.
D. dissertation, University of British Columbia, Canada
References McDougall S, Hungr O (2004) A model for the analysis of rapid
landslide motion across three-dimensional terrain. Can Geotech J
Audusse E, Bristeau MO, Perthame B, (2000) Kinetic schemes for 41:1084–1097
Saint-Venant equations with source terms on unstructured grids. Pastor M, Quecedo M, Gonzalez E, Herreros MI, Fernandez Merodo
INRIA report 3989, National Institute for research and computa- JA, Mira P (2004) Modelling of landslides: (II) propagation,
tional sciences and control, Le Chesnay degradations and instabilities in geomaterials. In: Darve, F.,
Bristeau MO, Coussin B, Perthame B (2001) Boundary conditions for Vardoulakis, I (eds) CISM courses and lectures No. 461, Springer
the shallow water equations solved by kinetic schemes. INRIA Pirulli M (2005) Numerical modelling of landslide runout, a continuum
report 4282, National institute for research and computational mechanics approach. Ph.D. dissertation, Politecnico di Torino,
sciences and control, LeChesnay Italy, 204pp
Chen H, Lee CF (2000) Numerical simulation of debris flows. Can Pisani G, Pirulli M, Labiouse V, Scavia C (in prep.) The role of the
Geotech J 37:146–160 centripetal acceleration on the propagation of flow-like landslides
Denlinger RP, Inverson RM (2004) Granular avalanches across irregular on a complex topography
three-dimensional terrain: 1. Theory and computation. J Geophys Res Savage SB, Hutter K (1989) The motion of a finite mass of granular
109: F01014, 14pp, doi:10.1029/2003JF000085 material down a rough incline. J Fluid Mech 199:177–215
Mangeney-Castelnau A, Vilotte JP, Bristeau O, Perthame B, Bouchut Savage SB, Hutter K (1991) The dynamics of granular materials from
F, Simeoni C, Yerneni S (2003) Numerical modelling of avalanches initiation to runout. Acta Mech 86:201–223
Single or Two-Phase Modelling of Debris-Flow?
A Systematic Comparison of the Two Approaches
Applied to a Real Debris Flow in Giampilieri
Village (Italy)
Laura Maria Stancanelli, Giorgio Rosatti, Lorenzo Begnudelli,

Aronne Armanini, and Enrico Foti
Abstract
A comparison between the performances of two different debris flow models has been
carried out. In particular, a mono-phase model (FLO-2D) and a two phase model
(TRENT2D) have been considered. In order to highlight the differences between the two
codes, the alluvial event of October 1, 2009 in Sicily in the Giampilieri village has been
simulated. The predicted time variation of several quantities (as the flow depth and the
velocity) has been then analyzed in order to investigate the advantages and disadvantages
of the two models in reproducing the global dynamic of the event. Both models seem
capable of reproducing the depositional pattern on the alluvial fan in a fairly way.
Nevertheless, for the FLO-2D model the tuning of the parameters must be done empiri-
cally, with no evidence of the physics of the phenomena. On the other hand, for the
TRENT2D, which is based on more sophisticated theories, the parameters are physically
based and can be estimated from laboratory experiments.
Keywords
Debris flow Numerical model FLO-2D TRENT2D
Introduction descriptions of the phenomenon. The FLO-2D model, which

is not fully two-dimensional, is based on a mono-phase
Debris flow models are widely used by engineers for hazard approach, modelled through an empirical quadratic rheologi-
mapping or evaluating the effectiveness of risk mitigation cal relation developed by O’Brien and Julien (1985);
works. However, a systematic comparison of performances TRENT2D is a fully two-dimensional model and its two-
of different approaches is still missing. In this framework, phase rheological model is based on the physically grain
a real debris flow event has been analyzed by means of two inertial method of Bagnold-Takahashi. Another important
different models: FLO-2D (O’Brien 1986), which is a widely difference is that in FLO-2D the bed is fixed, while in
adopted commercial code, and TRENT2D (Armanini et al. TRENT2D the bed is mobile and completely coupled with
2009), applied in several advanced researches on debris flows the dynamic of the mixture. On the other hand, such a model
and in the engineering practice. Both models adopt depth- does not simulate the presence of inerodible zones.
integrated flow equations, but assume different mathematical In order to highlight the differences between the two
methodologies, the two models have been applied to a real
and complex case, namely, the alluvial event of October 1,
L.M. Stancanelli (*) E. Foti 2009, which struck the Messina Province (Italy). During the
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, event, in few hours a very intense rainstorm generated more
University of Catania, Catania, Italy
than 600 landslides, which caused 37 fatalities and severe
damages to transportation infrastructures as well as to public
G. Rosatti L. Begnudelli A. Armanini
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
and private buildings. In particular, in the present work the
University of Trento, Trento, Italy effects of the mentioned event on the Giampilieri village has

278 L.M. Stancanelli et al.
been analyzed. Giampilieri has been settled in the Middle flow resistance coefficient; g ¼ gravitational acceleration; mB ¼
Ages and nowadays presents peculiarities in terms of Bingham viscosity; n ¼ pseudo-Manning’s resistance coeffi-
geomorphological and urban configuration. Therefore, the cient which accounts for both turbulent boundary friction and
debris flow analysis in this particular type of settings is internal collisional stresses. In particular, the yield stress tB, the
of particular interest. Regarding the geomorphology, the dynamic viscosity mB and the resistance coefficient n are
village is settled on a steep hillslope. Upstream of Giampilieri, influenced by the sediment concentration relationships that can
three different little basins, with an extension less than be described by the following equations:
1 km2, generated debris flows that propagated across the
village and eventually run into the Giampilieri river. Regard- t y ¼ a 1 e b1 Cv (4)
ing the urban configuration, it is worth to point out that the
little village has a population of about 1,800 inhabitants, and mB ¼ a2 eb2 Cv (5)
it is characterized by high density and narrow streets. This
makes the emergency management and the planning of n ¼ nt 0:538 e6:0896 Cv (6)
evacuation operations particularly difficult.
where Cv is the volumetric concentration and a1, b1,
a2 and b2 are empirical coefficients defined by laboratory
Models Description experiments (O’Brien and Julien 1988) and nt is the turbu-
lent n-value (Julien and O’Brien 1998).
FLO-2D To solve the momentum equation FLO-2D considers, for
each cell, the eight potential flow directions. Each velocity
FLO-2D is a commercial code worldwide adopted for debris computation is essentially one-dimensional and solved inde-
flow phenomena modelling and delineating flood hazards, pendently from the other seven directions (FLO-2D User’s
developed by O’Brien in 1986. The model is two- Manual 2007).
dimensional in space and adopts depth-integrated flow
equations. Hyper concentrated sediment flows are simulated
considering a mono-phase approach, based on empirical TRENT2D
quadratic rheological relation developed by O’Brien and
Julien (1985). Trent2D is a numerical code, developed by Armanini et al.
The basic equations implemented in the model consist (2009), for the simulation of debris flows and hypercon-
mainly in the continuity equation: centrated sediment transport.
Its mathematical model is based on the assumption of a
two-phase mixture of sediments and water, with rheological
@h @ ðhvx Þ @ hvy
þ þ ¼i (1) model based on the physically grain inertial method of
@t @x @y
Bagnold-Takahashi.
and the equation of motion (the dynamic wave momentum Since the reference model is biphasic, the bed is movable
equation): (contrary to the FLO-2D model). Moreover, the dynamics of
the mixture and the morphological evolution of the bed are
@h vx @vx vy @vx 1 @vx solved in a completely coupled way. This is quite important
Sfx ¼ Sox þ þ (2) because wave celerities change noticeably from the fixed to
@t g @x g @y g @t
the movable bed case.
where: Sox ¼ the bed slope; h ¼ flow depth; vx, vy ¼ depth- The depth-averaged PDEs of the model are derived from
averaged velocities; i ¼ excess rainfall intensity (assumed the conservation balances of mass and momentum (for solid
equal to zero in the present application). and mixture):
Since the model is mono-phase, the bed variation term, 8
> @ @ @
i.e.: the bed evolution is not considered. >
> ðzB þ hÞ þ ðhvx Þ þ hvy ¼ 0
>
> @t @x @y
>
>
The total friction slope can be expressed as follows: >@
> @ @
>
>
< @t ðcB zB þ chÞ þ @x ðchvx Þ þ @y chvy ¼ 0
>

tB KmB V n2 V 2 >
> @ @ gh2 @ @zB
Sf ¼ þ þ (3) >
> @t ½cD vx h þ @x cD vx h þ 2
2
þ cD vx vy h þ cD gh ¼ Fvx
>
> @y @x
rgh 8rgh2 h4=3 >
>
>
>
> @ @ @ gh2 @zB
>
: cD vy h þ cD vx vy h þ cD v2y h þ þ cD gh ¼ Fvy
@t @x @y 2 @y
where tB ¼ Bingham yield stress; V ¼ mean flow velocity
(7)
along the flow direction; r ¼ mixture density; K ¼ the laminar
Single or Two-hase Modelling of Debris-low? A Systematic Comparison. . . 279
where: h ¼ flow depth; vx, vy ¼ depth-averaged velocities;

zB ¼ bed elevation; c ¼ solid phase concentration;
cb ¼ solid concentration into the soil; cD ¼ (1 + Dc)
where D ¼ relative density of solid phase. The friction
term F ¼ F(|v|,h) derives from Bagnold’s relation modified
by Takahashi (1978) on the basis of experimental data:
F ¼ 25=4 ð1 þ DÞ sin ’ l2 Y 2 (8)
where ’ is the friction angle and:

h i1 pffiffiffi
l ¼ ðcb =cÞ1=3 1 ; Y ¼ h= d 50 a (9)
where d50 is the median grain size and a ¼ 0.32 is a constant

(Takahashi 1978).
The concentration is computed as a function of the flow
variables as:

c ¼ bcb u2 =gh (10)
where the transport capacity b is a dimensionless parameter.

The numerical scheme, second order accurate both in
space and in time, is based on a finite volume, Godunov
approach over a Cartesian structured grid. The scheme
follows a MUSCL-Hancock explicit time stepping approach.
The numerical fluxes at cell interfaces are computed using
the LHLL Riemann solver (Fraccarollo et al. 2003), which is Fig. 1 Images of Giampilieri village, where are indicated: (a) The
able to account for the non conservative terms due to bed locations of Loco Creek, Sopra Urno Creek and Puntale Creek;
discontinuities. (b) Extensions of Loco, Sopra Urno and Puntale basins
More details on the mathematical scheme and on the
numerical model can be found on the Trent2D User’s
Upstream of the Giampilieri urbanized area, there are
Manual (2011).
three different tributaries named, from West to East, Loco,
Sopra Urno and Puntale creeks respectively (Fig. 1).
All of the tributaries are characterized by catchments of
Event Description small extension, respectively of 1 km2 for the Loco basin,
0.7 km2 for the Sopra Urno basin and 0.4 km2 for the Puntale
The comparison of the two models has been carried out by
basin. During the alluvial event of October 1, 2009, all of
simulating a real complex debris flow event.
the three catchments produced debris flows that inundated
During the night of October 1, 2009 a heavy rainfall
the village and caused 19 fatalities.
struck the Messina Province causing fatalities and damages
to public and private structures. The event interested an area
of more than 50 km2, generating over 600 landslides. One of
the most damaged villages was Giampilieri, a little village Data Referring to Simulations
in the Southern Messina Province, located on the left bank
side of the Giampilieri river. The town is characterized by a In order to model the debris flows, three principal data
high-density urban area with narrow streets, that during inputs are needed: Digital Terrain Model (DTM), hydro-
alluvial events become the bed over which the runoff flows. logical data, and rheological properties of sediment water
The soil is composed by metamorphic material, easy to be mixture. While the first two inputs are the same for the two
eroded, also because of the semi-arid climate, which is also models, the rheological properties are completely different
characterized by short and very intense rainstorms that occur because different are the mathematical models they are
between October and March. based upon.
Geometry Data
The geometry input consists in a Digital Terrain Model,

based on the surveys taken after the event. The same grid
system, with square cells 1.5 m 1.5 m, has been used in
the simulations with the two models.
The presence of buildings inside the flood plain has been
considered in both models, thus obtaining the same final
configuration, although the implementation of such feature
is addressed in FLO-2D and TRENT2D in different ways.
In fact, in FLO-2D buildings are by attributing a reduction
factor that accounts for the loss of storage and redirection
of the flow path, while for TRENT2D the presence of the Fig. 2 Debris flow input hydrograph developed respectively for: (a)
buildings is implemented by enhancing the elevation of the Loco Basin; (b) Sopra Urno Basin; (c) Puntale Basin
corresponding computational cells.
Hydrological Inputs Performed Simulations
Three hydrological inputs have been considered in this FLO-2D

study, relative to the three cited different basins. The input
hydrographs have been determined using the data obtained In order to perform the simulations with the FLO-2D model,
from hydrological analysis, using a 300 years return period the coefficients a1, b1, a2 and b2 (4 and 5) need to be
rainfall rate. The duration of the hydrographs has been estimated. Due to the mono-phase rheology the model is
estimated from the concentration time of the three basins. based upon, the parameters cannot be directly evaluated,
In order to determinate the discharge rate value of the and must be estimated by means of a back analysis process.
debris flows for each basin, a simple formula can be derived In particular the following values have been assumed
through a liquid and sediment balance mass, which gives (Stancanelli et al. 2011):
(Armanini 2011, personal communication):
a1 ¼ 0:006032; b1 ¼ 19:9; a2 ¼ 0:000707; b2 ¼ 29:8
cb
Qdf ¼ Ql (11)
cb c A reconstruction of the inundated area, shown in Fig. 3 by
the red line, has been obtained as output of the model. In
where Qdf is the discharge of debris flow, Ql is the liquid particular, it is easy to recognize the portion of the urbanized
discharge rate (given by the hydrograph); c and cb are the area interested by the debris flow, which fits fairly well with
concentrations of the solid phase in the debris flow and into the surveys effected after the event.
the soil, respectively. Assuming that cdf cannot exceed 0.9cb, The maximum flow depths during the event obtained
when the bed slope is higher than a threshold (that in the from the FLO-2D simulation are presented in Fig. 4. The
present case is equal to 21 ), from (11) we get: Qdf ¼ 10 Ql. predicted highest flow depths were generated by the Sopra
In Fig. 2 the input hydrographs of the different basins are Urno creek, with a maximum value of about 6 m.
represented. Fig. 5 represents the final flow depths, i.e. the debris flow
While for Puntale and Loco only one hydrological input depths after a time of 3 h. Note that, according to the mono-
has been considered, for the Sopra Urno basin three inputs phase approach, there are no bed variations nor settlement of
have been implemented. Such an assumption relies on the sediments separated from the liquid phase. The whole fluid
observed event dynamics and from the analysis of the stops when the bed stress goes under a threshold that
orthophoto gathered after the event, in which it is easy to depends on the fluid, determining the final deposition. The
distinguish the three sub-catchments. Also, it has been highest values of the predicted final flow depths are found
assumed that the debris-flows originated from the three sub- in the streets perpendicular to the main path followed by the
catchments did not develop at the same times. Specifically, debris flows, with a maximum value of 1.2 m. Finally, the
the debris flow volume has been divided in three different predicted maximum velocities are shown in Fig. 6. It is easy
inputs, separated each other by 6 minutes. These hypotheses to recognize that the maximum velocities are registered in
are supported by the comparison between the volumes calcu- correspondence of the upper part of the basins, where the
lated from the hydrographs and those resulting from the slope are the highest, with values ranging from 10 m/s to
surveys taken after the event. 20 m/s, while inside the urbanized area the velocities range
Fig. 3 Inundated area as observed for the scenario simulated with the Fig. 6 Maximum velocity as observed for the scenario simulated with
FLO-2D the FLO-2D
from 1.5 m/s to 5 m/s, although some peaks over 10 m/s are
also observed.
TRENT2D
In order to perform the simulations with the TRENT2D

model, we need to estimate the parameters ’, Y and b (8,
9, and 10). The friction angle ’ should be determined by
laboratory test on the soil material of the study site. Here, we
have ’ ¼ 38 . As for the parameter Y, it has been set to 10,
considering an average value of its expression throughout
the flow field (9). Finally, the transport capacity b has been
determined as explained in the Trent2D User’s Manual
(2011), and the value b ¼ 4.28 has been found.
Fig. 4 Maximum flow depth as observed for the scenario simulated The maximum flow depths reached during the simulation
with the FLO-2D of the event are shown in Fig. 7. As it can be seen, the values
are generally smaller than those predicted by the FLO-2D
model for the same event. On the other side, considering
the thickness of the final deposition of material (Fig. 8),
TRENT2D predicted values are greater than those given by
FLO-2D, in particular along the main path followed by the
debris flows. Finally, the maximum velocities given by the
TRENT2D model are shown in Fig. 9. They are generally
smaller than those obtained using the FLO-2D model, with
velocities around 2–4 m/s along the main paths and smaller
values elsewhere.
Validation Against Field Data
The results of FLO-2D and TRENT2D models have been

compared with the data coming from on-site investigations,
Fig. 5 Final flow depth as observed for the scenario simulated with the i.e. videos recorded during the event and measurements of
FLO-2D the depth of the sediment deposition. In particular, Fig. 10
Fig. 7 Maximum flow depth as observed for the scenario simulated Fig. 9 Maximum velocity as observed for the scenario simulated with
with the TRENT2D the TRENT2D
Fig. 10 Orthophoto of Giampilieri urban area with positions of data

gathered from in site surveys (Ucosich 2009)
Fig. 8 Depth of the final sediment deposition as observed for the
scenario simulated with the TRENT2D
shows an orthophoto of the urban area of Giampilieri with Considering maximum flow depths (hmax), FLO-2D
the positions where measurements have been gathered on predicted values are in general higher than those observed.
purpose for the inherent study. This can be explained by considering that buildings cannot
In particular, two field data are available: the values of the store debris flow volume and the uncertainty relative of
maximum flow depth reached during the event (hmax) and the magnitude event. On the other side, TERNT2D results
the values of the thickness of the sediment deposit left by the are slightly smaller than those observed, with more accurate
debris flow (dzb). In Table 1, field data are reported, along results along the main paths and greater deviations in the
with the corresponding predicted data obtained from FLO- smallest streets.
2D and TRENT2D. In the table we have reported only the With regard to the deposition depths (dzb), it must be
points for which both flow depth and deposit data are noted that, given the monophasic approach of FLO-2D the
available. whole fluid stops when the threshold bed stress is reached,
Table 1 Measured and predicted values of maximum flow depths and of the phenomena. On the other hand, since the parameters
final sediment deposition for the Giampilieri event of the TRENT2D model have a more specific physical
Survey meaning, it is easier to identify the acceptable physical
POS. Data FLO-2D TRENT2D range for the values.
hmax dzb hmax hfinal vmax hmax dzb vmax
The time variation of several quantities has been
[no.] [m] [m] [m] [m] [m/s] [m] [m] [m/s]
analyzed in order to highlight the performances of the
1 2.4 2 1.41 0.40 3.15 1.8 1.48 1.53
two models as well as their differences. The results show
2 1.75 1 2.74 0.78 1.43 1.67 1.46 1.77
that both models seem capable of reproducing the depo-
3 1.5 1 3.86 0.92 2.39 1.27 0.85 1.02
4 1.7 1.5 4.37 1.12 4.11 1.20 0.98 1.14
sitional pattern on the alluvial fan. In particular, FLO-2D
5 2 2 4.52 1.12 4.31 1.63 1.44 1.8 tends to overestimate the flow depths for the reasons
6 3.3 2 4.50 1.12 4.43 2.18 1.74 1.29 previously explained, while Trent2D slightly under-
11 2.83 2 1.76 0.06 5.73 1.50 0.03 1.50 estimates them. As for the final depositions, they are
13 2.05 1 1.99 0.69 1.72 1.86 0.85 2.52 slightly underestimated by both models. Finally, FLO-
15 1.26 2 2.45 0.21 3.15 1.96 1.89 2.13 2D velocities are generally higher than those predicted by
23 2.04 0.5 2.28 0.46 1.38 1.47 0.34 1.50 Trent 2D, due to the different rheological models.
24 2.78 0.5 2.13 0.35 0.58 1.91 0.52 0.93
25 2.3 1.2 2.17 0.35 1.21 1.95 1.1 2.34 Acknowledgments All consultants of the OPCM 10th October 2009
26 1.93 1.8 2.09 0.05 3.21 2.05 1.98 2.19 n 3815 are greatly acknowledged for the support demonstrated and for
27 1.95 1.2 3.98 1.01 1.13 1.80 1.12 1.32 the useful information provided.
We would like to thank the Public Civil Engineering Works Office
28 5 0.4 2.81 0.10 2.47 1.01 0.24 1.17
of Messina and the Department of Civil Defence of Sicilian Region for
30 2 1 1.7 0.68 0.90 1.40 0.57 0.84 providing important data.
Mean errors: 1.17 0.73 – 0.74 0.36 –
determining the final deposition, given by the final flow References

depth (hfinal). Predicted values obtained from FLO-2D
Armanini A, Fraccarollo L, Rosatti G (2009) Two-dimensional simula-
simulations are smaller than survey data of Ucosich (2009); tion of debris flows in erodible channels. Comput Geosci
the reasons can be the value of the viscosity parameter 35:993–1006
assumed and also the absence of anthropic features in the Fraccarollo L, Capart H, Zech Y (2003) A Godunov method for the
simulated scenario, such as cars along the streets, which computation of erosional shallow water transient. Int J Num Meth
Fluids 41(9):951–976
modify the flow to a large extent. Looking at the Trent2D Julien PY, O’Brien JS (1998) Dispersive and turbulent stresses in
results, predicted final depositions are smaller than those hyperconcentrated sediment flows, Unpublished paper
measured. As for the flow heights, results are better in the O’Brien JS (1986) Physical process, rheology and modeling of
main streets and less accurate in the lateral narrow ones. mudflows. Ph.D. thesis, Colorado State University, Fort Collins,
Colorado
Considering the maximum velocities (vmax), there are no O’Brien JD (2007) FLO-2D user’s manual, Version 2007.06, FLO
field data available. Using FLO-2D, all values belong to the Engineering, Nutrioso
range from 1.5 m/s to 15 m/s, while using Trent2D velocities O’Brien JS, Julien PY (1985) Physical processes of hyperconcentrated
are smaller (2–4 m/s along the main paths and smaller values sediment flows, Proceeding of the ASCE Specialty Conference on
the delineation of landslides, floods, and debris flow Hazards in
elsewhere). This difference is clearly due to the different Utah, Utah Water Research Laboratory, Series UWRL/g-85/03,
rheologies adopted by the two models. 260–279
O’Brien JS, Julien PY (1988) Laboratory analysis of mudflow
Conclusions properties. J Hyd Eng ASCE 114(8):877–887
Stancanelli LM, Bovolin V, Foti E (2011) Application of a dilatant –
The simulation of the alluvial event of October 1, 2009, in viscous plastic debris flow model in a real complex situation. River,
Giampilieri has been reproduced by means of two differ- Coastal and Estuarine Morphodynamics: RCEM2011, Beijing
ent debris flow models. Takahashi T (1978) Mechanical characteristics of debris flow. J Hyd
Thanks to the availability of a large amount of data Div – ASCE 104(8):1153–1169
Trent2D User’s Manual (2011) available at: www.simidra.com/pdf/
collected after the event, a back analysis has been carried Manuale_Trent2D_versione1.84.pdf
out. For the FLO-2D model, the tuning of the parameters Ucosich (2009) Map reporting the filling state condition inside the
must be done empirically, with no evidence of the physics Giampilieri village after to the alluvial event of 1st Oct 2009
Runout Prediction of Rock Avalanches in Volcanic
and Glacial Terrains
Rosanna Sosio, Giovanni B. Crosta, Johanna H. Chen, and Oldrich Hungr
Abstract
Among all kinds of landslides, rock avalanches are characterized by exceptional mobility
and destructiveness. Their mobility is well larger than explained by the real material
properties and it is usually expressed by means of an “apparent” friction angle which is
a-priori unpredictable. We replicate the motion of historical rock/debris avalanches
evolved in glacial and volcanic environments. The modelled events involved variable
volumes (ranging from millions of m3 to km3) which are well preserved so that their
main features are recognizable from satellite images. Within each class of events, and
irrespective of the variety of conditions in which they occurred, the best fitting parameters
span in a narrow interval. The bulk basal friction angle ranges within 3 and 7.5 for
volcanic debris avalanches, within 6 and 12 for ice-rock avalanches. These values are
significantly lower than other rock avalanches which require values as high as 11 to 31 .
The consistency of the back-analyzed parameters is encouraging for a possible use of the
model in the perspective of hazard mapping while set of calibrated values can help the
selection of model input parameter values for prediction and for definition of uncertainty on
zonation.
Keywords
Rock avalanche Numerical modelling Forward prediction Rheological parameters
Introduction in modelling perspective, a gap remain in the selection of the

input values introducing large uncertainty in the modelling
When a potential source of instability is identified, hazard prediction. H/L ratio is used as an indicator of the rock/
mapping through runout analyses may be necessary to define debris avalanche mobility (Fig. 1, Evans and Clague 1988;
which areas could be threatened by landslide propagation. Hayashi and Self 1992; Siebert 2002), but H/L values
Nevertheless, due to the sudden evolution of the phenomena, obtained for historical events span widely due to variable
and to the unfeasible use of the measurable material properties materials involved and, in particular, topographical
constrains which are supposed to have strong influence on
the mode of propagation.
R. Sosio (*) G.B. Crosta The spread between the real material properties and their
Department of Scienze Geologiche e Geotecnologie, University effective counterpart required by the numerical models is
of Milano Bicocca, Piazza della Scienza, 4, Milan, Italy
particularly high when the instability involves weak rocks,
partially saturated fine materials, such as volcanic debris
J.H. Chen
Klohn Crippen Berger, Calgary, Canada
(Glicken 1996; Voight and Elsworth 1997; Voight et al.
1983) and/or the propagation evolves onto low resistant
O. Hungr
Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, The University of British
substrate, such as glacial ice (Evans and Clague 1988).
Columbia, Vancouver, Canada Despite their large magnitude, these events gained little

286 R. Sosio et al.
Events in volcanic environments evolved as debris avalan-

ches from collapse of the edifice independently of its state
activity. Their volume ranges from few km3 up to tens km3.
Volcanic debris avalanches are promoted or initiated by
different processes; most frequently by rock alteration
(i.e. hydrothermal and physical), presence of weak layers
in the edifice structure, and seismic or magmatic activity
(Voight and Elsworth 1997). Collapse phenomena may occur
repeatedly for the same edifice. Events in glacial environments
(ice-rock avalanches) are characterized by their interaction
with ice/snow either as basal material onto which propagation
occurred or as part of the propagating masses. Icy mass can
be directly detached at the source or entrained along the path.
Their volume ranges from M m3 up to tens M m3.
Common triggers are related to changing thermal conditions
(i.e. deglaciation and permafrost degradation) and seismic
Fig. 1 Bilogarithmic plot of the relative runout (H/L) vs volume (V) of activity. Seismic shaking, in particular, can seldom trigger
rock and debris avalanches evolved in different settings (Data from
Siebert (2002), Evans and Clague (1988), Hayashi and Self (1992)) clusters of ice-rock avalanches events (e.g. March 27, 1964,
Anchorage earthquake and November 3, 2002, Denali Fault
earthquake; Post 1967; Jibson et al. 2006).
attentions by scientists, partly because they evolve in remote
areas, which are often inaccessible and generally with few
element at risk, partly because of the scarcity of data Topography
(descriptive and topographic).
This work focuses on the mobility of rock and debris Volcanic and glacial events are often difficult to recognize at
avalanches evolving in glacial and volcanic environments a local scale and their deposits were often attributed to other
by providing a set of calibrated case histories to be back origin such as glacial till (Hewitt 1999) and pyroclastic
analysed by two different models. The events developed in deposits (Crandell et al. 1984). Moreover, areas interested
a variety of settings and condition and they vary with respect by extreme events are often very remote with difficult access
to their morphological constrains, materials, contact surfaces, conditions. Therefore, more than field surveys, remotely
and styles of failure. The event reconstructions and the back sensed data, such as satellite imagery, airborne observations,
analyses are based on the observations available from the aerial-photographic investigations, and seismic recordings
literature (i.e. runout distance, impacted areas, flow velocities). can be fundamental (and in some cases the unique available
We test the performance of the frictional, Voellmy, and data) for natural hazard evaluation.
plastic rheologies to define, for each rheology, a range of We used satellite data to derive basal topography for the
values for the parameters which best replicate the propa- modelling and to support the available maps at delimiting
gation of selected historical events. landslide and other geomorphological features (i.e. glacial
cover). ASTER-derived satellite grid provides elevations at
horizontal resolutions of 1 arc second and cell size DEMs
ranging from 22 to 30 m with reference to the considered
Methods latitude. In all the cases, the DEMs provided the post-event
topography. We reconstructed the pre-failure topography by
We selected 19 case histories among the largest and best modifying the original terrain data in the area interested by
described rock and debris avalanche events in glacial and the detachment and the deposition as outlined by available
volcanic environments worldwide (Table 1). The selected maps, event descriptions, and morphological evidences. We
events vary with respect to their magnitude, triggering evaluated the sensitivity to the topographic data by
conditions, involved materials and role of fluids in the propa- resampling the original ASTER data (30 m grid) to 60 m
gation. They all have quantitative estimates of the mobilized and 90 m grids.
volumes, well preserved morphological features, and field-
data availability. The back analyses of the rheological
parameters are performed on the available literature obser- Numerical Modelling
vations which supports also all the assumptions in model
reconstruction (i.e. mobilized volumes, entrainment, and The debris avalanche motion was modeled using the DAN 3D
event evolution). code (McDougall and Hungr 2004) and the MADFlow code
Table 1 Schematic description of the case studies. Data are collected from available literature and topographic maps. Records in parenthesis indicate the number of events replicated for each
location. Question marks indicate inferred data
Detached Water
Collapse event Location date material Trigger Evolution Volume Erosion presence References
St Helens USA May 18, 1980 Andesite, Cryptodome Debris 2.1 km3 Unknown Ice cap Glicken 1996
basalt intrusion avalanche
Socompa Argentina/ 6,300–6,400 Dacite, Gravitational Debris 25–26 km3 Unknown No Wadge et al. 1995
Chile BP andesite spreading avalanche evidences
Iriga Philippines 1628 (?) Basalt, Unknown Debris 1.5 km3 No evidence Unknown Aguila et al. 1986
andesite avalanche
Shiveluch Kamchatka Nov. 12, 1964 Andesite Magma intrusion Debris 1.5 km3 Unknown No Ponomareva et al. 1998
avalanche evidences
Llullaillaco Argentina/ Late Dacite, Gravitational Debris 1–2 km3 Unknown Ice cap Richards and Villeneuve
Chile Pleistocene andesite collapse avalanche 2001
Mombacho El Nicaragua Unknown Basalt, Hydrothermal Debris 1.8 km3 No evidence No van Wyk de Vries and
Crater andesite weakening avalanche evidences Francis 1997
Runout Prediction of Rock Avalanches in Volcanic and Glacial Terrains
Pacaya Guatemala Unknown Basalt Gravitational Debris >0.60 Pumice Unknown Vallance et al. 1995
collapse avalanche (0.85?) km3
Bering glacier Alaska Nov. 3, 2002 Granite Denali earthquake Ice-rock 11.8 M m3 Snow/ice Icy basal Jibson et al. 2006
avalanche material
Black Rapids Alaska March 27, Anchorage Ice-rock 10–14 M m3 Snow/ice Icy basal Post 1967
Glacier (2) 1964 earthquake avalanche material
Martin River Alaska March 27, Anchorage Ice-rock 4–18 M m3 Unknown Icy basal Post 1967
Glacier (4) 1964 earthquake avalanche material
Illiamna, Red Alaska July 25, 2003 Andesite Intraglacial sliding Ice-rock 5 M m3 Snow/ice Icy basal Huggel et al. 2007
Glacier planes avalanche material
Mount Munday Canada Unknown Gneiss Unknown Ice-rock 3 M m3 Unknown Icy basal Delaney and Evans 2008
avalanche material
Shattered Peak Alaska March 27, Sandstone Anchorage Ice-rock 10 M m3 5–30 M m3 Icy basal Shreve 1966
1964 argillite earthquake avalanche snow/ice material
Mount Steller Alaska September 14, Tertiary Permafrost Ice-rock 10–20 M m3 Snow/ice Icy basal Huggel et al. 2008
2005 rock, ice degradation avalanche material
287
288 R. Sosio et al.
(Chen and Lee 2000). Both the models assume a fixed fric- influenced the propagation and the final distribution of the
tional internal rheology, which is governed by an internal deposit. The proper reconstruction of the pre-slide topogra-
friction angle, and alternative rheological kernels to describe phy in the source and in the deposition area is one of
the basal rheology. The two models differ in the approach used the main elements of uncertainty together with the exact
to solve the constitutive equations numerically (i.e. SPH in the volumes involved during the propagation.
DAN-3D model, finite element in the MADflow model). Modelling volcanic debris avalanches requires the removal
Debris avalanches evolving from collapse of volcanic of large volumes of deposited material and, eventually, of
edifices were modelled assuming frictional, Voellmy, and other volcanic products ejected successively to the collapse.
plastic basal rheologies. The use of the frictional and In these latter cases, the exact proximal limit of the deposit is
Voellmy rheologies is well established for this kind of phe- either undefined or difficult to recognize from the present
nomena and a number of back-analysed historical events are topography because of possible post-collapse phenomena
available in the literature. The plastic rheology was first (e.g. dome extrusion, effusion of volcanic products), addi-
adopted by Kelfoun and Druitt (2005) which successfully tional sector collapses of the edifice associated to the aval-
replicates the Socompa debris avalanche. Rock avalanches anche (e.g. toreva blocks), or obliteration of the deposit itself.
running onto glaciers were modelled assuming frictional and Modelling ice-rock avalanches the local morphology of the
Voellmy basal rheologies. glacier strongly influences the propagation due to the low
Internal friction angle is held constant (fi ¼ 35 ) for all the basal resistance. The local micromorphology is only partly
models. The bulking process is not simulated by the model. To captured by the 30 m cell-size grid available.
take it into account we increased the detached volume by
20 %, so that the source volumes include the volume incre-
ment undergone during propagation by fragmentation. Volcanic Debris Avalanches
Entrainment data are only seldom available for ice-rock
avalanche events, as an estimation of the total volume We simulate the propagation of ice-rock avalanches adopting
admixed to the detached mass. Without more information the frictional, Voellmy and plastic rheologies in the DAN 3D
available (i.e. locally eroded depths, erosion rates), we code. Several events are modelled with the Madflow model
assumed uniform entrainment rates along the entire ice- adopting the frictional and Voellmy rheologies (e.g. Figs. 2a
covered path as to obtain the final volume estimated for the and 3a). None of the adopted rheologies completely capture
deposit. Changes in material density due to the presence of the variety of volcanic debris-avalanches considered and their
amounts of ice and snow do not affect significantly the final whole propagation dynamics. The frictional rheology gener-
results, so they will be not discussed further. ally provides the best estimates of the deposit extents, with
The rheological parameters required for the back analyses differences within about 9 % with respect to the observed
(i.e. basal frictional angle, j, for the frictional rheology, events.
frictional, m, and turbulent, x, coefficients for the Voellmy The Voellmy and plastic models fail to replicate the
rheology, shear strength for the plastic rheology) were lateral expansion and the initiation of the deposition in
adjusted to match (1) the total runout distance reached by many cases, which overestimate deposit areas up to 26 %
the debris avalanche (i.e. the horizontal distance between the and 35 %, respectively. Adopting the DAN 3D model,
scar highest point to the furthest point of deposit), (2) the values of m ¼ 0.003–0.08 and x ¼ 500–1,200 ms2 provide
aerial extent of the propagation and debris distribution within the best results. The friction angle, which is the sole param-
the deposit, and (3) other information quantitatively available eter required by the frictional rheology, varies within the
(i.e. flow velocity, deposit thickness, run-up against obstacles, range 3 –7.5 . The shear strength required by the plastic
etc.). The parameters are selected by trial and error and rheology varies within 45 and 100 kPa (Table 2). The
adjusted in fixed intervals. In the Voellmy rheology, the Madflow model requires higher resistance parameters than
frictional coefficient is selected first as to reach the proper the DAN 3D code (Table 3).
distal end of deposition; then, the turbulent coefficient is
adjusted which controls the proximal end limit of the depo-
sition, the flow velocity and the overall propagation path. Ice Rock Avalanches
We simulate the propagation of ice-rock avalanches adopting

Modelling Results the frictional and Voellmy rheology in the DAN 3D and
Madflow codes (e.g. Figs. 2b and 3b). The models replicate
Due to the scarcity of data, a complete description of events the deposition areas with differences within the 12 % and
evolution is often difficult to accomplish. A number of 9 % for the frictional and Voellmy model, respectively.
factors are critical for the modelling and could have Modelling the entrainment process is essential at recognizing
Runout Prediction of Rock Avalanches in Volcanic and Glacial Terrains 289
Fig. 2 Examples of application of the DAN 3D numerical model to replicate: (a) the Pacaya debris avalanche event and (b) the Sherman ice-rock
avalanche. The deposition extents resulting from different rheologies are superimposed to the observed ones
Fig. 3 Examples of application of the MadFlow numerical model to replicate: (a) the Pacaya debris avalanche event and (b) the Sherman ice-rock
avalanche. The deposition extents resulting from different rheologies are superimposed to the observed ones
the distribution of the deposit and the areas interested by DAN 3D code. In both the codes, Voellmy rheology achieves
propagation. Adopting the DAN 3D model, values of better results than the frictional rheology at recognizing the
m ¼ 0.03–0.1 and x ¼ 1,000–2,000 ms2 provide the best area involved by the propagation and initiation of the deposi-
results. The friction angles vary within the range 5.5 –10.5 tion, whereas the frictional rheology better replicates the high
(Table 2 and Fig. 4). The Madflow code requires higher flow velocities suggested for some of the modelled cases.
resistance parameters and produce thicker deposits than the
290 R. Sosio et al.
Table 2 Range of the rheological parameters required by the DAN 3D

code to replicate rock and debris avalanches in varying environments.
Data refers to the presented study and to literature (Hungr and Evans
1996; McDougall 2006)
Basal Turbolent Frictional
Type of Cases friction coefficient coefficient
event [#] [j, ] [x, ms2] [Z, –]
Rock 8 12–30 300–1,000 0.08–0.25
Av.
Volc. 18 2.5–7.5 200–1,200 0.003–0.08
debris
Av
Ice- 15 5–11 1,000–2,000 0.03–0.1
Rock
Av.
Table 3 Range of the rheological parameters required by the Madflow

Fig. 4 DAN rheological parameters (Frictional and Voellmy) back
code to replicate rock and debris avalanches in varying environments.
analyzed for different rock and debris avalanches (Hungr and Evans
Data refers to the presented study and to literature (Chen and Lee 2000)
1996; McDougall 2006)
Basal Turbolent Friction
Type of Cases friction coefficient angle
event [#] [j, ] [x, ms2] [Z, ]
Rock 6 20–31 200–1,000 6–21
Av.
Volc. 3 4–11 600–1,200 1.5–3
debris
Av.
Ice- 8 7–12.5 800–1,000 2.5–5
Rock
Av.
Discussion
We applied depth averaged models to simulate the propagation

of historic events of long runout rock and debris avalanches
evolved in a variety of settings and conditions. The back
analyses provide a first database of calibrated volcanic debris Fig. 5 Basal friction angles resulting from the back analyses of the
avalanches and a range of values for suitable rheological several case histories compared to the corresponding travel angles
parameters. The uncertainty related to the reconstruction of
the pre-event topography as the volume assumed for the col- accomplish the best replication of events evolving either in
lapse mass are some of the factors that mainly affect the glacial or volcanic settings. These values are well lower than
quality of the modelling. those obtained for other rock avalanches of comparable mag-
nitude which need basal friction angle generally within the
range of 11 –31 (McDougall 2006). Intermediate parameters
Back Analysed Parameters are required for debris avalanches entraining deposits (8 <
j < 13 ) or only partly propagating over ice (10 < j <
The DAN 3D model has been extensively applied to a number 20 ) (Fig. 5).
of calibrated case histories, and the back calculated para- The Voellmy model is suggested for replicating the flow
meters can be used for comparison (Hungr and Evans 1996; motion along the glacial ice, where the resistance has to be
McDougall 2006). The rheological parameters obtained in reduced to properly enhance the flow mobility (Evans and
this study are significantly lower than those commonly used Clague 1988). Among the selected cases, entrainment of
for debris avalanches evolving in different settings. Particu- snow and ice along the path is documented only for
larly for the basal friction angle, the sole parameter required Shermann and Mt Steller ice-rock avalanches, which more
by the frictional rheology, values always lower than 10 than triplicate their volumes propagating along the glacier.
Runout Prediction of Rock Avalanches in Volcanic and Glacial Terrains 291
Dependence on the Input Data Glicken H (1996) Rockslide-debris Avalanche of May 18, 1980, Mount
St. Helens Volcano, Washington. U S Geol Surv Open-File Report,
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topography data produce final results (deposition area, avalanche mobility. J Geoph Res 97:9063–9071
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slightly vary among each others, particularly for unconfined in the Karakoram Himalaya, Northern Pakistan. Quaternary Res
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(i.e. ASTER and SRTM-derived terrain data). Lower values volcanoes: a case study of frequent large avalanches on Iliamna
of the rheological parameters are required for modelling on Volcano, Alaska. J Volc Geoth Res 168(1–4):114–136
Huggel C, Schneider D, Julio Miranda P, Delgado Granados H, Kääb A
smaller cell sizes. Increasing the cell size from 30 to 90 m (2008) Evaluation of ASTER and SRTM DEM data for lahar
grid reduces terrain roughness. The increase in the resistance modeling: a case study on lahars from Popocatepetl Volcano,
offered by the material by means of its rheological properties Mexico. J Volc Geoth Res 170:99–110
serves to balance the reduced resistance offered by the more Hungr O, Evans SG (1996) Rock avalanche runout prediction using a
dynamic model. In: Senneset (ed) Proceedings, 7th international
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Jibson RW, Harp EL, Schulz W, Keefer DK (2006) Large rock
Conclusions avalanches triggered by the M 7.9 Denali Fault, Alaska, earthquake
In this work we demonstrate that, irrespective of the of 3 November 2002. Eng Geol 83:144–160
Kelfoun K, Druitt TH (2005) Numerical modeling of the emplacement of
triggering conditions, events evolving in similar environ- Socompa rock avalanche, Chile. J Geophys Res 110:B12202.1–12202
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detachment, type of basal material, role of fluids, etc.) can of extremely rapid landslide motion across complex 3D terrain.
be replicated assuming similar values for the flow- Ph.D. thesis, University of British Columbia, Vancouver
McDougall S, Hungr O (2004) A model for the analysis of rapid
resistance parameters. In particular, we propose the landslide motion across three-dimensional terrain. Can Geotech
range of variability for rheological parameters to be con- J 41:1084–1097
sidered for the modelling of debris avalanches evolving Ponomareva VV, Pevzner MM, Melekestsev IV (1998) Large debris
from the collapse of volcanic edifices and for ice/rock avalanches and associated eruptions in the Holocene eruptive
history of Shiveluch volcano, Kamchatka, Russia. Bull Volcanol
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significantly lower than required by rock avalanches Post A (1967) Effects of the March 1964 Alaska earthquake on glaciers,
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Shreve RL (1966) Sherman landslide, Alaska. Science 154(3757):
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Crandell DR, Miller CD, Glicken HX, Christiansen RL, Newhall CG Res 66:337–355
(1984) Catastrophic debris avalanche from ancestral Mount Shasta van Wyk de Vries B, Francis PW (1997) Catastrophic collapse at
volcano, California. Geology 12:143–146 stratovolcanoes induced by gradual volcano spreading. Nature
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(eds) Proceedings of the 4th Canadian conference on geohazards: mechanics of the Mount St Helens rockslide-avalanche of 18 May
from causes to management. Presse de l’Université Laval, Québec, 1980. Geotechnique 33:224–273
pp 141–146 Wadge G, Francis PW, Ramirez CF (1995) The Socompa collapse and
Evans SG, Clague JJ (1988) Catastrophic rock avalanches in glacial avalanche event. J Volc Geoth Res 66:309–336
environments. Proc V Int Symp Landslides 2:1153–1158
Physical Modelling of the Propagation of Rock
Avalanches: Recent Developments and Results
Claire Sauthier and Vincent Labiouse
Abstract
Rock avalanches are studied at the Laboratory for Rock Mechanics of EPF Lausanne by
means of unconstrained flow experiments of dry granular material. Tests aim at studying
the influence of different parameters on the propagation and deposition mechanisms as well
as on the characteristics of the final deposit. The existing measurement system, based on the
fringe projection method, was improved in order to increase the quality and the reliability
of the volume measurement and the computation of the centre of mass of the final deposit.
The latest developments allow using this method to follow the mass during its motion.
Additionally, a new technique that allows tracking the mass front was set up and compared
to previous results gathered with the commercial software WINAnalyze. Results of
experiments carried out with a gravel supposed to have the same characteristics as the
one used in a previous research study Manzella (2008 Dry rock avalanche propagation:
unconstrained flow experiments with granular materials and blocks at small scale. Ph.D.
thesis 4032, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland) showed some
differences, suggesting that the grading of the material has a certain influence on the runout
and the position of the centre of mass of the final deposit. A more significant difference is
related to the state of the propagation surface. Recent experiments with a curved transition
at the bottom of the slope and a larger volume lead to new results. Contrary to previous
observations, for a given falling height of the source base, the distance travelled by the
centre of mass on the horizontal panel increases with the volume. This leads to discuss
further some conclusions previously drawn.
Keywords
Rock avalanches Physical modelling Runout Fringe projection method Mass front
tracking
Introduction their path and are important in terms of life loss and eco-
nomic impact (Hungr 1990). The management of this kind of
Rock avalanches are extremely rapid events involving a natural hazard requires the identification of potential sources
great amount of materials (106 m3). Although they are and their monitoring as well as the prediction of runout
very infrequent, rock avalanches cause total destruction in areas. One way to progress in the understanding of the
propagation and energy dissipation mechanisms of such
natural hazard is to perform physical modelling, although
C. Sauthier (*) V. Labiouse laboratory similitude requirements are not easy to fulfil.
Laboratory for Rock Mechanics (LMR), Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale The Laboratory for Rock Mechanics of EPF Lausanne is
de Lausanne (EPFL), EPFL-ENAC-LMR, Station 18, CH-1015
Lausanne, Switzerland
performing unconstrained flow experiments on an inclined
e-mail: [email protected] panel by releasing dry frictional materials. It aims at studying

294 C. Sauthier and V. Labiouse
the influence of several parameters like: the released material,

the volume, the falling height, the slope angle, the basal
β V
friction angle, the radius of curvature at the bottom of the
slope and the number of consecutive releases on the final
deposit’s characteristics i.e. runout, length, width and centre
of mass, as well as on the front propagation (Manzella 2008; RC
HV
Manzella and Labiouse 2009). Among all the conclusions
H
drawn in the framework of the previous research study men-
tioned above, two of them are very interesting. Firstly, a
transfer of momentum between the rear and the front parts Fig. 1 Experimental set-up
of the sliding mass was observed. When the front part reaches
the horizontal panel it starts to decelerate, while the rear part
on the inclined panel is still accelerating. The rear part pushes
the front part, and the rate of deceleration of the latter is
reduced. Secondly, the distance travelled by the centre of
mass on the horizontal panel does not depend on the volume.
This leads to confirm a suggestion made by Davies (1982) and
later Davies and McSaveney (1999, 2003). These Authors
stated that the centre of mass travels with an angle close to a
“normal” friction angle of granular material and that the long
runout of rock avalanches is due to the spreading of the mass.
Recently, the range of values of volume, falling height,
slope angle and radius of curvature was extended. Improve-
ments and further developments of the measurement system Fig. 2 Grading of the tested materials Gr2 and Gr2_Old (Sauthier in
progress)
allow assessing the influence of these parameters also on
the mass in motion (Sauthier in progress). Related to these
modifications, a new technique was developed for the mass transition. The radius of curvature can go from about
front detection and tracking. A series of experiments 0.05–1.00 m. The entire surface is currently covered with
performed under similar conditions with respect to the three connected smooth plastic sheets made up of forex. Up
previous research study, and with a type of gravel a priori to 100 l of material is released from a box with a height, width
identical to the one used in those tests, showed some different and length of 20, 40 and 135 cm respectively. A sketch of the
results. The state of the propagation surface and the type of experimental set-up is shown in Fig. 1.
gravel can explain these differences. The geometry of the At present the following parameters are studied: the
source leads to difficulties in the interpretation of the results, volume V, the falling height of the source base H, the initial
as the influence of the volume and the initial position of the height of the centre of mass HV, the inclination b and the
centre of mass cannot be distinguished. To dispel any uncer- radius of curvature RC. Their influence is assessed on the
tainty, two series of tests were performed, and compared; final deposit as well as on the mass in motion. Each test is
a first one with a constant falling height of the source base performed three times to check the reproducibility.
and a second one with a constant initial height of the centre
of mass. The results obtained lead to discuss further some
conclusions drawn so far. Released Material
Experiments were performed with two different type of

gravels; Gr2 and Gr2_Old. The latter was used in a previous
Laboratory Experiments research study (Manzella 2008; Manzella and Labiouse 2009).
The former material contains less fine particles and more coarse
Experimental Set-up grains (Fig. 2). The internal friction angle as well as the static
and dynamic basal friction angles on forex were measured with
Unconstrained flow experiments are performed on an inclined tilting tests (Table 1). In terms of friction angles, the difference
panel, which can be positioned at different angles and is between the two gravels is small, even insignificant, as it is
connected to a horizontal panel with an adaptive curved within the range of variation of the measurement (1 ).
Physical Modelling of the Propagation of Rock Avalanches: Recent Developments and. . . 295
Table 1 Characteristics of the tested materials Gr2 and Gr2_Old

(Sauthier in progress)
Friction angles Gr2 Gr2_Old
Internal friction angle 37 1 36 1
Static basal friction angle 26 1 27 1
Dynamic basal friction angle 23 1 24 1
Fig. 4 Projection of parallel lines on an object (Cochard and

Ancey 2007)
L
fringes deformation gives access to the object morphology.

To easily explain the relationship between the distortion of
the pattern and the object surface height, a couple of parallel
w
lines, projected onto the object of interest, is considered in

Fig. 4.
The height difference Dh is given by (1):
R
Dp pp pa
Dh ¼ ¼ (1)
tan a tan a
Fig. 3 Direct measurements of the final deposit characteristics i.e. where Dp is the difference between pp the distance
runout R, length L and width W separating the two projected lines and pa the distance
between these two lines as seen by the camera with an
angle of incidence a (Cochard and Ancey 2007). This rela-
Measurement System tionship is only valid in a telecentric system. The height
information can be retrieved at each line position but is
Direct Measurements lost in-between. So, to retrieve this lost information, fringes
with a cosine profile are preferably projected. Specific
After each test, runout R, length L and width W of the final algorithms have been designed to retrieve the shape of the
deposit are measured with a ruler. The runout is measured from object in a Cartesian framework from the images captured
the intersection between the inclined and the horizontal panels. with a camera (Cochard and Ancey 2007; Manzella and
When the entire mass does not pass the curved transition, the Labiouse 2008; Sauthier in progress).
length corresponds to the projection of the final deposit on a
horizontal plane (Fig. 3).
Mass Front Detection and Tracking
Fringe Projection Method In a previous research study (Manzella 2008) the mass front
was detected and tracked, its velocity and acceleration were
Indirect measurements of the final deposit as well as of the computed by means of the commercial image analysis software
mass in motion are obtained by means of the fringe projec- WINAnalyze. This program mainly works on the contrast to
tion method. This non-destructive measurement technique track points. The projection of fringes during the propagation
has already been used in a previous research study for of the mass makes such software useless.
retrieving the morphology of the final deposit and for com- A new technique was developed, using the Empirical
puting the position of the centre of mass (Manzella and Mode Decomposition EMD. The EMD was developed by
Labiouse 2008). Recent works allowed improving the qual- Huang et al. (1998) to process non-stationary signals by
ity and the reliability of the final deposit measurement and to decomposing them into their intrinsic oscillation modes. The
extend the technique to the measurement of the mass during standard algorithm is iterative and the final result depends on
its motion (Sauthier in progress). several parameters and choices leading to a non-unique solu-
The principle of the technique is to project a fringe tion. Recently, Equis and Jacquot (2009) proposed a new
pattern with an angle of incidence onto an object. Those implementation of the EMD. If specific experimental
fringes appear distorted due to the object topology when conditions are fulfilled, a single iteration produces a zero-
seen from a different direction. The measurement of the mean centred signal, leading then to a straightforward phase
a b
Propagation
direction
c d
e Propagation direction
Fig. 5 Detection of the mass front. (a) Final deposit without fringes.
(b) Central section of 5 pixels of the final deposit without fringes. (c)
Final deposit with fringes. (d) Results of the EMD applied on a section
of 5 pixels. (e) Derivative of the mean value of the intensity, front and
rear detection on the image of the final deposit without fringes and after Fig. 6 Comparison between the mass front velocities computed by the
removal of the fringes commercial software WINAnalyze and the new technique. (a) Mass
front velocity over runout. (b) and (c) Front velocity over time. The
regression line in (c) points out the deceleration on the horizontal plane,
extraction. This latter version of the EMD was used to com- related to the transfer of momentum between the rear and the front parts
pute the mean value of the signal and thus to eliminate the of the mass
fringes.
This technique is applied on a strip of 5 pixels along the second derivative computations to obtain mass front velocity
direction of propagation. The result is smoothed with a sine and acceleration a smoothing step must be carried out. Good
cosine filter (Aebischer and Waldner 1999). The mean value results were obtained with the following processing scheme.
over the 5 pixels is computed and differentiated. The deriva- From the n sets of down sampled by n versions of the
tive has a positive peak representing the mass front (Fig. 5). raw data, shifted by one between each other, we build n
The error in the front detection can reach 5 pixels i.e. smoothed signals by interpolation with a cubic spline kernel.
approximately 2.5 cm. The precision of the new technique The last step consists simply in averaging those n samples.
is thus similar to the previous one of 2–3 cm (Manzella and This method leads to better results than those obtained with a
Labiouse 2009). In theory, the detection of the rear part is moving average window of length n.
also conceivable, but less accurate due to the unavoidable This method, starting from the front detection, was applied
shadow at the rear part of the mass when it propagates on the on a series of images without fringes (Manzella 2008) and
horizontal panel. Applying this method on an image compared to the result given by the commercial software
sequence allows the automatic detection and tracking of WINAnalyze (Fig. 6). The results are not strictly identical
the mass front. After calibration, the distance travelled by because of different smoothing techniques and assumptions
the front along the slope is computed. Prior to first and on the calibration. However, the maximal velocities are
comparable and the trend of the curves leads to draw similar

conclusions about a transfer of momentum phenomenon
(Manzella and Labiouse 2009). The mean deceleration of
3.1 m/s2 at the end of the propagation is lower (in absolute
value) than the value corresponding to the sliding of a particle,
i.e. g.tana ¼ 4.4 m/s2. This underlines that there is a
driving force pushing the front of the mass ahead. It results
from a transfer of momentum between the front part of the
mass which is decelerating and rear part which is still on the
inclined panel and accelerating.
Results
Comparison Between Previous and Fig. 7 Comparison between previous and recent results. Tests
Recent Results performed with gravel Gr2_Old (Manzella 2008) and gravel Gr2
(Sauthier in progress). Experimental conditions: V ¼ 40 l, H ¼ 1.0 m,
b ¼ 45 , RC ¼ 0.5 m, smooth surface
For the purpose of comparing results obtained in the frame-
work of two Ph.D. theses (Manzella 2008; Sauthier in prog-
ress) and to extend the conclusions obtained so far, a series
of experiments was performed again. Volumes of 20 and 40 l
of gravel Gr2 were released from 1 m height on a panel
covered with forex, inclined at 45 and with a radius of
curvature at the bottom of the slope of 0.5 m. Figure 7
presents the obtained results for a volume of 40 l. Firstly,
improvements in the delineation of the final deposit can be
noticed. Noise was removed and waves, due to harmonics
resulting from an imperfect cosine profile of fringes, were
smoothed. Secondly, it can be observed that the results are
rather different. The experiments performed recently give a
longer runout and distance travelled by the centre of mass on
the horizontal panel. On the other hand, the length and the
width of the final deposit are a bit smaller.
A first reason for explaining such differences is the use of Fig. 8 Comparison between final deposit characteristics of gravel Gr2
different released materials. To assess the influence of the and Gr2_Old (Sauthier in progress). Experimental conditions: V ¼ 40 l,
H ¼ 1.0 m, b ¼ 45 , RC ¼ 0.5 m, smooth surface
type of gravel, experiments were performed again with the
old gravel Gr2_Old. They confirmed that different gravels
provide some differences in terms of runout, and position of Due to these differences in characteristics of the released
the centre of mass. The length and the width of the final material and experimental conditions, the results of the two
deposit are quite similar (Fig. 8). The gravel Gr2_Old research studies are not strictly comparable from a quantita-
contains more fine particles, which can be the source of an tive point of view. Nevertheless, conclusions drawn from
artificial cohesion due to electrostatic forces developing each experimental campaign about the influence of the vari-
when the material is in motion (Iverson et al. 2004). ous parameters on the final deposit characteristics can be
The second and main reason of the differences observed compared and discussed.
when comparing previous and recent experiments (Fig. 7) is
related to the state of the propagation surface. The inclined
panel is covered with forex plates which were replaced Influence of the Volume on the Final Position
before starting the new experiments. The old plates were of the Centre of Mass
rather scratched, and this most probably led to an increase of
friction at the interface between the basal surface and the The increase in volume range tested in the recent experiments
sliding material. Moreover, a small gap between two of the leads to discuss further some conclusions drawn in the frame-
three plates was filled up in time with released material work of a previous research study (Manzella 2008; Manzella
creating an obstacle to the gravel flow. and Labiouse 2009). Volumes up to 100 l of gravel Gr2 were
Fig. 9 Influence of the volume on the distance travelled by the centre Fig. 10 Influence of the volume on the distance travelled by the centre
of mass on the horizontal panel XCM, for a constant falling height of of mass on the horizontal panel XCM for a constant falling height of the
the source base H. Experimental conditions: V ¼ 40 l, H ¼ 1.0 m, source base H as well as for a constant initial height of the centre of
b ¼ 45 , RC ¼ 0.5 m, smooth surface mass HV. Experimental conditions: V ¼ 40 l, b ¼ 45 , RC ¼ 0.5 m,
smooth surface
released from 1 m height on a panel covered with forex,
inclined at 45 and with a radius of curvature at the bottom The travel angle of the centre of mass fcm, i.e. the angle
of the slope of 0.5 m. Contrary to what was stated, for a given connecting the initial and final positions of the centre of
falling height of the source base, the volume has some influ- mass, is constant for volumes of 20 and 40 l and slightly
ence on the distance travelled by the centre of mass on the increases by 1 for a volume of 100 l.
horizontal panel (Fig. 9).
Manzella and Labiouse (2009) drawn their conclusion Conclusions
from experiments performed with a sharp transition at the In order to study rock avalanches, unconstrained flow
bottom of the slope and extended it to the few experiments experiments are performed at the Laboratory for Rock
carried out with a curved transition. Nevertheless, it is pos- Mechanics at the EPF Lausanne (LMR-EPFL). Those
sible that the type of transition plays a role in the propagation laboratory tests aim at assessing the influence of different
of the centre of mass. Moreover, the increase in volume parameters and at studying mechanisms of propagation
range leads to a straightforward and unambiguous assess- and energy dissipation.
ment of the influence of this parameter. Indeed, the variation A few years ago, the LMR developed a measurement
with volume of the final position of the centre of mass is system, based on the fringe projection method, for
above the range of variation of three experiments performed retrieving the morphology of the final deposit and com-
in the same conditions. puting the position of its centre of mass. The mass front
However, this way of analysing the results is too trivial was tracked and its velocity and acceleration were
and may mislead. In fact, due to the geometry of the source, computed using the software WINAnalyze. Recent
an increase of volume leads to a higher position of the initial works allowed improving the quality and the reliability
centre of mass. This raises the following questions: Is the of the final deposit measurement and to extend the tech-
longer distance travelled by the centre of mass on the hori- nique to the measurement of the mass during its motion.
zontal panel due to an increase of volume or due to a higher Due to the projection of fringes during the whole experi-
position of the centre of mass of the source? Is there any ment, the use of a commercial software to track the mass
interaction between these two parameters? front is not possible anymore. A new implementation of
To answer these questions, some experiments were the empirical mode decomposition EMD was used to
performed, keeping a constant initial position of the centre remove the fringes and keep the background intensity.
of mass and using different volumes. An increase of volume This technique is applied on a strip of 5 pixels along the
from 20 to 40 l leads to a slight and insignificant increase of direction of propagation. The signal is then smoothed
the distance travelled by the centre of mass on the horizontal with a sine cosine filter, averaged over the 5 pixels and
panel. Unexpectedly, the distance travelled by the centre of derived to detect the mass front. After calibration, the
mass is lower for a volume of 100 l than for volumes of 20 distance travelled by the front along the slope is
and 40 l (Fig. 10). This probably results from the fact that, computed and smoothed by cubic spline interpolation.
given the geometry and confinement of the source, a part of The first and second derivatives give the mass front
the energy is dissipated by friction along the sides of the box. velocity and acceleration, respectively.
The results of new experiments were compared to those

of a previous research study. The observed differences can References
be explained by the state of propagation surface and some-
what by the characteristics of the released material, Aebischer HA, Waldner S (1999) Simple and effective method for
filtering speckle interferometric phase fringe patterns. Opt Commun
suggesting that the grading may have an influence.
162(4–6):205–210
Among these two factors, the former has the most signifi- Cochard S, Ancey C (2007) Tracking the free surface of time-
cant influence. Although the results are not strictly compa- dependant flows: image processing for the dam-break problem.
rable from a quantitative point of view, the conclusions Exp Fluids 44(1):59–71
Davies TRH (1982) Spreading of rock avalanche debris by mechanical
drawn so far can be extended.
fluidization. Rock Mech 15(1):9–24
Contrary to previous observations, for a given falling Davies TRH, McSaveney MJ (1999) Runout of dry granular avalanches.
height of the source base, the distance travelled by the Can Geotech J 36(2):313–320
centre of mass on the horizontal panel increases with the Davies TRH, McSaveney MJ (2003) Runout of rock avalanches and
volcanic debris avalanches. In: Proceeding of the international con-
volume. However, given the source geometry and its
ference on fast slope movements, vol 2. Naples, 11–13 May 2003
influence on the initial position of the centre of mass, it Equis S, Jacquot P (2009) The empirical mode decomposition: a must-
is impossible to claim that this is only due to the volume. have tool in speckle interferometry? Opt Express 17(2):611–623
A series of experiment performed with a constant initial Huang NE, Shen Z, Long SR, Wu MC, Shih HH, Zheng Q, Yen N-C,
Tung CC, Liu HH (1998) The empirical mode decomposition and
position of the centre of mass showed that an increase of
the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series
volume from 20 to 40 l leads to a slight and insignificant analysis. Proc R Soc Lond A 454:903–995
increase of the distance travelled by the centre of mass on Hungr O (1990) Mobility of rock avalanches. National Research Institute
the horizontal panel. For a volume of 100 l, this distance for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Report 46, Tsukuba,
pp 72–93
decreases. The travel angle of the centre of mass fcm is
Iverson RM, Logan M, Denlinger RP (2004) Granular avalanches across
constant for volumes of 20 and 40 l and increases only by irregular three-dimensional terrain 2. Experimental tests. J Geophys
1 for a volume of 100 l. This is probably due to the fact Res–Earth Surf 109: F01015, 16pp, doi:10.1029/2003JF000084
that, for such a volume, a part of the energy is dissipated Manzella I (2008) Dry rock avalanche propagation: unconstrained flow
experiments with granular materials and blocks at small scale. Ph.D.
by friction along the sides of the box.
thesis 4032, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland
Manzella I, Labiouse V (2008) Extension of the fringe projection method
to measure shape and position of the centre of mass of granular flow
Acknowledgments The authors thank the Swiss National Science deposit. In: Proceedings of the 12th international conference of
Foundation for funding this research project. Further acknowledgements international association for computer methods and advances in
go to Dr. Equis for his help in the improvement and extension of the geomechanics (IACMAG), Goa, 1–6 Oct 2008, pp 4547–4554
measurement system, as well as for his careful review of the third part of Manzella I, Labiouse V (2009) Flow experiments with gravel and
this paper. M. Mattheeuws for proofreading this article. Jean-Marc blocks at small scale to investigate parameters and mechanisms
Terraz, Laurent Morier, Michel Teuscher and Laurent Gastaldo for involved in rock avalanches. Eng Geol 109(1):146–158
designing and modifying the experimental set-up. Thomas Badoz, Emilie Sauthier C. Physical and numerical modelling of the propagation and
Decrausaz, Mathilde Charrier, Gabriele Pisani, Bastien Ferrot and spreading of dry rock avalanches. Ph.D. thesis in progress, Ecole
Laurent Gastaldo for their help during the experimental campaign. Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland (in progress)
Debris Flow Analysis: From Lithological
Classification of the Basin to Deposition
Chiara Deangeli, Erika Paltrinieri, and Davide Tiranti
Abstract
The aim of this study is the development of an integrated approach for definition of scenarios
of debris flow deposition. The approach has been applied to basins located in the North-
western Alps. Firstly the basins are classified on the basis of the bedrock lithology. Hence the
features of debris flows are related to different bedrock lithologies: basin area/fan area ratios,
alluvial fan architectures, depositional styles and triggering rainfall characteristics. This
method permits to capture the essential features of flow phenomena and to address the choice
of proper constitutive laws for the numerical modelling of debris flow propagation and
deposition. The numerical model calibration is based on the observed styles of deposition
of debris flows and architecture of the alluvial fans (shape, slope, grain-size distribution, etc.).
The simulations do not match the deposit of a given past event, but the results are in terms of
scenarios and supply a more realistic tool for risk mitigation.
Keywords
Catchment lithology Sedimentary processes North-western Alps Numerical
modelling Cellular Automata
Introduction numerical model parameters on the basis of in situ evidences.

In this procedure there are two main weakness points: the
Debris flows (DFs) are rapid to very rapid flows of sediment reliability of the initial volume assessment and the back
water mixtures, with high solid concentration, mainly com- analysed values of the parameters. It is well known that the
posed by irregular and coarse particles. They are among the estimate of initial debris volumes is a difficult task and the
most dangerous natural processes because of high velocities. results of two different procedures can be conflicting. Further-
Therefore the definition of deposition scenarios is one of the more the parameters calibrated during the process of back
most important aspects for risk mitigation. The definition of analysis can be different, in a given site, for events of low
scenarios is usually carried out by the numerical simulations of (small initial volume) and high (large initial volume) magni-
past events. The procedure is generally based on the assessment tude. The last matter depends on several aspects but is related to
of the volume of an occurred event, the choice of a suitable the choice of the constitutive law. First there exists an objective
constitutive law for the debris flow and the calibration of the difficulty for determining the rheological behaviour of natural
materials because they are composed by irregular and coarse
particles over a large range of values, and therefore in the
C. Deangeli (*) E. Paltrinieri majority of cases rheological properties cannot be measured
Department of Land, Environmental and Geoengineering, Politecnico directly and must be evaluated by historical information or by
di Torino, Turin, Italy
monitoring field data (run out, flow velocity, etc.). Secondly
back analyses supply constitutive parameters by matching the
D. Tiranti
Hydrology and Natural Hazards, Department of Forecasting Systems,
field data. This does not provide evidence that the constitutive
Environmental Protection Agency of Piemonte, Turin, Italy equation is appropriate (Ancey 2007).

302 C. Deangeli et al.
The present study seeks to overcome some of the problems

previously highlighted and is tested in some pilot sites located
in the North-western Alps, in upper Susa Valley (Piemonte,
Italy). The basins are classified on the basis of the lithology of
the bedrock into three main groups (Tiranti et al. 2008).
According to the outcomes of Moscariello et al. (2002) each
group corresponds to a peculiar grain-size distribution of the
resulting loose material. The three main typologies of catch-
ment lithology are characterized by different basin area/fan
area ratios, alluvial fan architectures, debris flow rheologies,
depositional styles and triggering rainfall characteristics. The
interpretation of in situ evidences supplies also indications
about the sedimentary processes occurring in these basins.
The depositional styles can therefore supply indications on the
predominant type of process (viscous, collisional-frictional)
during the runout phase of debris flows. Fig. 1 Sketches of the three depositional styles and relative grain-size
curves (Group 1: Rudavoi type; Group 2: Grand Vallon type; Group 3:
The results of this geological study have addressed the Inferno and Grotto types). Where: CSGF is cohesive sediment gravity
choice of proper constitutive laws for the propagation phase, flow; NCSGF is non-cohesive sediment gravity flow; Lag is matrix-free
simulated by a Cellular Automata model (Segre and gravels produced by winnowing of debris flow by recessional and/or
Deangeli 1995; Deangeli 2008). secondary overland water flows; IC is incised channel facies: massively
matrix-poor or-free coarse gravel formed as a result of successive
The initial volume of debris material of each simulation winnowing and erosion of sediment gravity flow deposits by high energy,
does not exactly corresponds to a given past event, but it is channelized water flows; WL(U) is waterlaid deposits formed under
just a reasonable value for the investigated basin. The pur- supercritical flow conditions by sheetflooding; WL(L) is waterlaid
pose of the numerical models is to reproduce depositional deposits formed under subcritical flow conditions (planar stratification)
during the waning stage of the flood or secondary overland water flows.
styles and architecture of the alluvial fans for each group. Prevailing grain-size: S (sand and silt); G (gravel with matrix) (Modified
The calibration of the numerical model parameters is hence from Moscariello et al. 2002)
performed in these terms. The paper reports results obtained
by the application of the proposed methodology to three test-
In Table 1 the main features of the three basin types are
basins belonging to the three different groups identified in
summarized.
upper Susa Valley.
The considerations about the triggering frequency and the
triggering seasonality in Table 1 are derived from analysis of
historical data from 1728 (first DF triggering historical
Classification of Basins and Related Processes report in this part of the Western Alps) until today.
The considered average values of critical rainfall inten-
According to a recent study conducted on several alluvial fans sity (see Table 1) are only indicative of high probability of
in the Alpine region (Moscariello et al 2002), several North- DF triggering. The characterization of basins is instead
western Alps basins have been classified by Tiranti et al. based on direct observations of catchments geology, sedi-
(2008) into three main typologies of catchment lithology: mentary features of DF deposits and on the characteristics of
(1) massive and/or crudely stratified/foliated carbonate alluvial fans (morphology, sedimentology and architecture).
rocks (e.g., dolostones, limestones, marbles); (2) fine-grained In particular, the observed distinctive characteristics for each
sheared finely-foliated metamorphic rocks (e.g., calc-schists, basin group are summarized as follows.
shales, phyllades); (3) massive or coarse-grained crystalline The G1 basins consist primarily of massive or coarsely
rocks or massive quartzite rocks (e.g., granitoids, gneiss, stratified carbonate rocks, with average slope of 40 ; they are
ultrabasites, meta-qtz-conglomerates). characterized by a good production of clayey silt in loose
On the basis of these lithological characteristics, the material and the surficial deposits cover approximately the
dominant alluvial fan aggradational processes are related to 30 % of the total area of the basin. The prevalent sedimentary
a cohesive debris flow (CDF) and to a non-cohesive debris processes are linked to CDF phenomena and to “Rudavoi”
flow (N-CDF). The occurrence of the two DF types depends type depositional style. The G1 alluvial fans are definitely
on the amount of clay or clay-like phyllosilicates and clayey impressive compared to the feeding basins (fans are about 1/4
silt produced by the different bedrocks. Matrix clay content of the basins) and are characterized by regular geometry and
greater than 5 % characterizes the CDF; matrix clay amount gentle slope. In non-anthropized alluvial fans it is possible to
lower than 5 % characterizes N-CDF (Fig. 1). observe lobes in central and distal areas, and levees in
Debris Flow Analysis: From Lithological Classification of the Basin to Deposition 303
Table 1 Characteristics of the three catchment lithology groups in the Western Alps (Modified after Tiranti et al. 2008)
Basin group Fan/basin area (%) Dominant processes Main depositional style
1 >20 CDF Rudavoi
2 5< CDF Grand Vallon
3 10< N-CDF Inferno – Grotto
Basin group Triggering recurrence (years) Minimum triggering rainfall type Main triggering season
1 4 Storms of high intensity (>30 mm/h) Late spring
2 1 Storms of moderate intensity (>20 mm/h) Summer
3 >10 Alluvial events or supercell storms (>50 mm/h) Autumn and spring (rarely in summer)
Fig. 2 G1 (e.g. Rio Fosse), G2 (e.g. Rio Saint Draia), G3 (e.g. Rio Secco) alluvial fan geometry plans. The increase of fan slope is shown by the
arrow length (Tiranti 2008)
the apex. The transition from levees-rich area to lobes-rich minerals in loose material. The prevalent sedimentary pro-
area is underlined by a gradual decrease of the fan slope from cesses are linked to N-CDF phenomena and to “Inferno” type
apex to toe (Fig. 2). depositional style with high magnitude, even if, without
The G2 basins consist primarily of metamorphic rocks extreme rainfall, the examined torrents are characterized
(foliated, fine-grained and phyllosilicates-rich), with average by prevailing “Grotto” type depositional style (bedload
slope of 30 ; they are characterized by an excellent produc- e watersheet deposits). G3 basins, characterized by prevalent
tion of clay or clay-like minerals in loose material and the Inferno type depositional style, have a relative small alluvial
surficial deposits cover approximately the 60 % of the total fan lobe-shaped (fan area/basin area <10 %), with high slope
area of the basin. The prevalent sedimentary processes are particularly in apex zone. A sharp change of debris size is
linked to CDF phenomena and to “Grand Vallon” type depo- evident from apex to central and distal fan area. Indeed, the
sitional style. The G2 alluvial fans are much smaller than larger boulders are concentrated in the apex as lobes and
the feeding basins (average <5 %) and are characterized by subordinated boulder-trains. From apex to toe, the boulders
moderate slope and an irregular geometry. In non-anthropized decrease while the heterogeneity of debris size increases in
alluvial fans it is possible to observe the occurrence of a correspondence to more or less evident morphologic scarps
higher number of levees than lobes. The former are regularly (Fig. 2).
distributed from apex to toe, near the main channel. As for the
G1 alluvial fans, the longitudinal cross-section is regular
(Fig. 2). The high cohesion of DF in the G2 is responsible Numerical Modelling of Debris Flows
of the small, starved-shape fans. In fact, it has been noted that
thick DF deposits are present along and near the main channel The propagation and deposition of debris flows in upper
at the high and intermediate sections of G2 basins. Susa Valley are simulated by a 3D numerical code based
The G3 basins consist primarily of massive and coarse- on Cellular Automata Method (Segre and Deangeli 1995;
grained metamorphic rocks, with intermediate slope values Deangeli 2008).
between G1 and G2 basins (about 35 ); cover deposits are The numerical code was originally generated to analyze
smaller than in G2 (about 55 % of basin area). They are DFs in the inertial regime (Segre and Deangeli 1995) according
characterized by a poor production of clay or clay-like to the solution of Takahashi (1978, 1991), based on the dilatant
Bagnold (1954) fluid constitutive law. A detailed description

of the mathematical algorithms implemented in the code is
4994000
reported in the papers of Segre and Deangeli (1995) and
Deangeli (2008).
00
23
This model was successfully applied to analyse the
4993500
evolutive behaviour of several actual granular flows, occurred
in different settings and contexts (Deangeli and Grasso 1996;
Deangeli and Giani 1998; Deangeli 2008).
In the present study the code has been improved and 4993000
modified by the implementation of a visco-plastic rheology

regime, according to the Bingham constitutive law. The
1800
choice of the constitutive law is still an open problem. 4992500
1550
The behaviour of debris flow depends on many factors
and the coexistence for a given event of different regimes
during the runout phase has been observed (Deangeli 2008).
316000 316500 317000 317500 318000
The simulation of real cases suffers from the lack of direct
observations and flow parameters measurements. Insights
can be derived from the observations of flume experiments
[m] 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.45 0.65 0.85 1.05 1.25 1.45
under controlled conditions. However these tests generally
refer to idealized conditions. Fig. 3 Results of the numerical analysis of debris flows in the Rio
According to the geological classification we have sup- Fosse basin. The blue line represents the contour of the watershed; the
posed different rheologies: if CDF are predominant we adopt red line represents the contour of the alluvial fan
a visco-plastic rheology, where we consider the mixture to
behave as a Bingham fluid; if N-CDF are the main processes The surface layer is somehow armoured through the
we assume the granular material to behave as a dilatant fluid presence of winnowed partially open-work deposit that
in the grain inertia regime of Bagnold (1954). The initial covers a clast-supported deposit formed by blocks and
volumes of loose material do not refer to a particular occurred boulders in a gravel, sand, clayey-silt matrix. The mobiliza-
event, but they have been estimated for each catchment on the tion of coarse sediments in the surface layer triggers the
basis of several past events, excluding very small phenomena. debris flow and the entrainment of underlying deposits is
The values are hence representative of the investigated area responsible of the cohesive behaviour of debris flows.
and are free from subjective interpretations of an occurred The simulations have been performed considering a
phenomenon. The model parameters are then calibrated on saturated material and a mixture of mud and water as embed-
the depositional style and fan architecture. ding fluid.
Exclusively for this basin, both the previously introduced
rheologies have been adopted in the CA model. As a matter
Results of Debris Flow Simulations of fact, DFs along Rio Fosse could be characterized by a
by CA Model coexistence of different flow regimes, being the basin inter-
mediate between Group 2 and Group 3 (respectively CDF
The Cellular Automata (CA) model has been used to simulate and N-CDF) (Deangeli et al. 2011).
debris flows in three different basins belonging to the three The results of the two types of simulations seem to
different groups: Rio Fosse (Bardonecchia)-Group 1, Rio indicate that the most appropriate constitutive law is the
Frejus (Bardonecchia)-Group 2 and Rio Secco (Salbertrand)- visco-plastic one as reported in Figs. 3 and 6a. In fact the
Group 3. modelling output shows a good agreement with the deposi-
tional style and the geometrical characteristics of alluvial fan
typical of the Group 1 basins (wide and regular fan with a
Rio Fosse gradual decrease of the slope from apex to toe).
The Rio Fosse is a small basin extending over about an

area of 1.40 km2 characterized by a catchment lithology Rio Frejus
mainly formed by dolostones and limestones and subordi-
nate calc-schists. The Rio Frejus has a basin of about 22 km2 and the Bardo-
Generally debris flows occurring at the Rio Fosse, are necchia town is situated on its alluvial fan.
initiated when the runoff is able to mobilize the coarser The Frejus basin is mostly composed by calc-schistes and
material deposited on the surface bed-sediment layer. characterized by an elevated density of active landslides
4997500
4997000
5001000 0
0
27
4996500
5000000
4996000 0
250
4995500
4999000
2000
4995000
4998000
4994500
4997000 4994000
2000
4993500
4996000
0
150
4993000
4995000
4992500
4992000
4994000
329500 330000 330500 331000 331500 332000 332500 333000

317000 318000 319000 320000 321000
[m] 0.15 0.55 0.95 1.35 1.75 2.15 2.55 2.95 3.75 4.55
[m] 0.05 0.15 0.25 0.45 0.65 0.85 1.05 1.25 1.45 1.65 1.85 2.05 2.25 2.45 2.65
Fig. 5 Results of the numerical analysis of debris flows in the Rio
Fig. 4 Results of the numerical analysis of debris flows in the Rio Secco basin. The blue line represents the contour of the watershed; the
Frejus basin. The blue line represents the contour of the watershed; the red line represents the contour of the alluvial fan
red line represents the contour of the alluvial fan
sometimes involving whole slopes (deep-seated gravita- excellent production of clay or clay-like minerals which
tional slope deformations). The high frequency of debris should give rise to a more “viscous” DF than Group 1 ones.
flow phenomena is due to the debris abundance deposited As for the previous case the modelling results (Figs. 4 and
in the stream channels. 6b) seems to fulfil the deposition style observed in the
The basin of the Rio Frejus is very extended and involves geological classification, especially with respect to the allu-
several tributaries in both right and left bank. The numerical vial fan geometry and the accumulated debris thickness.
modelling has considered only the contribution of Rio A very good agreement between numerical results and in
Gautier, because, historically, the highest number of DFs situ observations has been obtained for the strong deposition
was originated along this basin. The watershed between the of debris along the channel.
Rio Merdovine basin and the Rio Gautier basin exhibits large,
mixed debris accumulations at the base of cliffs. These cliffs
are affected by a high degree of fracturing and alteration. Rio Secco
Along less steep slopes there are modest quantities of
eluvial-colluvial cover (usually <2 m), where extensive shal- The Rio Secco is located in Salbertrand municipality and
low landslides and erosive phenomena can be observed extends over about an area of 4.85 km2.
(widespread rill erosion). Even inside the main channel bed It is characterized by a catchment lithology mainly
there are large quantities of preserved debris flow deposits. formed by gneiss and massive micashists, and, very subordi-
The numerical simulations have considered a saturated nate dolostones and calc-schists. The source areas were
material. The basins of Group 2 are characterized by an identified with the abundant talus deposits distributed at
a b c
[m] 0.15 0.15 0.25 0.45 0.65 0.85 1.05 1.25 1.45 [m] 0.15 0.55 0.95 1.35 1.75 2.15 2.55 2.95 3.75 4.55
Fig. 6 Fan depositional areas of three test-basins obtained from numerical modelling ((a) Rio Fosse; (b) Rio Frejus; (c) Rio Secco)
basin head. These main source areas are characterized by a The initial volumes of loose material, used in the numeri-
high presence of very coarse debris deposits, with open work cal models, do not refer to a particular occurred event, but
structure, resting on very steep slopes. The mobilization they have been estimated for each catchment on the basis of
of coarse sediments is possible only in presence of very several past events, excluding very small phenomena. The
extreme rainfalls. values are hence representative of the investigated area and
The basins of Group 3 produce less fine fraction com- are free from subjective interpretations of an occurred phe-
pared to Groups 1 and 2. The embedding fluid in this case is nomenon. The model parameters have been then calibrated
clear water. The material is assumed fully saturated. on the depositional style and fan architecture.
A value of the friction angle between 30 and 40 has The results show a relatively good agreement with the
been adopted, being the Group 3 basins characterized by observed debris flows events. Therefore the attempt of
very coarse particles. adopting a link between the bedrock lithological charact-
The results of the CA modelling (Figs. 5 and 6c) have eristics and sedimentary processes of the basins with a propa-
emphasized again the similarities among the estimates of the gation model has supplied encouraging outcomes. The
geological model, the in situ observations regarding to the proposed methodology seems to be an appropriate tool for
depositional style along the channel and the alluvial fan the set up of debris flow scenarios devoted to risk mitigation.
geometry (high slope particularly in apex zone).
Acknowledgments This research was supported by PARAmount
project of Alpine Space Programme of European Union (2-2-2-AT) –
http://www.paramount-project.eu/.
Concluding Remarks
The proposed methodology is based on the link between a References

geological model for characterization of basins (lithology
and depositional style) and a routing model. The methodol- Ancey C (2007) Plasticity and geophysical flows: a review. J Non-
ogy has been applied to three basins located in the North- Newton Fluid Mech 142:4–35
Bagnold RA (1954) Experiments on a gravity-free dispersion of large
western Alps, exhibiting different characteristics according solid spheres in a Newtonian fluid under shear. Proc R Soc Lond A
to the geological model. 225:49–63
The paper has reported the results of the application of this Deangeli C, Grasso P (1996) The evolutive mechanism of debris flows:
comprehensive methodology for the analysis of debris flows, analysis and protection works. In: Proceedings of 7th international
symposium on landslides, Balkema, Trondheim/Rotterdam,
from the lithology of the bedrocks (source rocks) that gives pp 1183–1188
rise to the loose material, to the propagation and deposition. Deangeli C, Giani GP (1998) Physical and numerical models to reha-
The choice of proper constitutive laws for the CA bilitate a waste disposal site. In: Proceedings of 8th international
modelling has been based on the results of the interpretation congress IAEG, Balkema, Vancouver/Rotterdam, pp 1813–1818
Deangeli C (2008) Laboratory granular flows generated by slope
of geological observations. The results of the numerical failures. Rock Mech Rock Eng 41(1):199–217
simulations have proved the reliability of the geological Deangeli C, Gregoretti C, Paltrinieri E, Rabuffetti D, Tiranti D (2011) An
model for the investigated test-basins. integrated approach to simulate channelized debris flows from
triggering to deposition. In: Proceedings of 5th international confer- Takahashi T (1991) Debris flow, IAIIR monograph. Balkema,
ence on debris-flow hazards mitigation: mechanics, prediction and Rotterdam
assessment, University of Padua, Italy, 14–17 June 2011, pp 661–668, Tiranti D (2008) The sediment gravity flows triggering mechanisms,
Moscariello A, Marchi L, Maraga F, Mortara G (2002) Alluvial fans in evolution and sedimentary processes in Western Italian Alps. Ph.D.
the Alps: sedimentary facies and processes. Spec Publ Int Assoc thesis, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Torino (Italy)
Sedimentol 32:141–166 and the Cambridge Quaternary, Department of Geography, Univer-
Segre E, Deangeli C (1995) Cellular automaton for realistic modelling sity of Cambridge (UK), pp 100
of landslides. Nonlinear Processes Geophys 2(1):1–15 Tiranti D, Bonetto S, Mandrone G (2008) Quantitative basin character-
Takahashi T (1978) Mechanical characteristics of debris flow. ization to refine debris-flow triggering criteria and processes: an
J Hydraul Div 104(8):1153–1169 example from the Italian Western Alps. Landslides 5(1):45–57
Stability Conditions and Evaluation of the Runout
of a Potential Landslide at the Northern Flank of
La Fossa Active Volcano, Italy
Maria Marsella, Aurora Salino, Silvia Scifoni, Alberico Sonnessa,

and Paolo Tommasi
Abstract
This paper focuses on the quantitative investigations carried out to evaluate stability conditions
of the northern flank of the La Fossa cone (Vulcano Island) and the consequent runout of the
debris avalanche that would be generated by a possible failure. The contribution describes first
the geological setting and the typical instability phenomena of the area. Then it illustrates how
the global morphology of the flank was reconstructed by combining aerial photogrammetry
and high resolution 3D surveying techniques such as terrestrial laser scanner. The resulting
digital elevation model (DEM) permitted us to extract and measure structural and morpholog-
ical elements that drive and influence past and potential instabilities. These elements were used
to constrain limit equilibrium analyses (LE) that were used to estimate the volume of soil mass
susceptible of failure. Strength parameters at large scale were obtained from laboratory tests,
described in previous studies, and back analyses of a past failure whose geometry was
reconstructed from the DEM. Finally, results of runout analyses of the debris avalanche are
presented and discussed. Analyses were conducted by using DAN-W and DAN-3D codes
which allowed an estimate of the maximum runout distance and extension of the accumulation
zone with respect to the inhabited area.
Keywords
Active volcano Landslide Debris avalanche Runout
Introduction if the area has been inhabited in recent times or erosion has
been so fast and intense to cancel signs of instability.
Instability phenomena frequently affect the flanks of active Major slope failures usually occur at the onset of volca-
volcanic edifices. In many cases inhabited areas have pro- nic phenomena and can be much faster and more unex-
gressively approached active unstable slopes, overlooking pected than lava flows. Nevertheless, also during quiescent
that the effects of the runout of the landslide mass on popu- phases probability of failure is significant, especially when
lation, infrastructures and buildings can be even more degassing activity increases (unrest periods) and contributes
significant than those of volcanic activity. In this respect to weaken the volcano flanks. At coastal volcanoes a further
failures are often missed in the record of event, especially risk is related to the tsunami waves that can be generated by
the propagation of the landslide mass into the sea.
All these sources of hazard can be found at the active
La Fossa cone in the northern part of the Island of
M. Marsella (*) A. Salino S. Scifoni A. Sonnessa Vulcano (Fig. 1). The last eruption was in 1899 while
Università di Roma “Sapienza”, Rome, Italy
at present the activity is essentially hydrothermal with
an intense degassing. On the contrary, during the last
P. Tommasi
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Geologia Ambientale
30 years, the flanks of the cone were involved in a number
e Geoingegneria, Rome, Italy of landslides.

310 M. Marsella et al.
gp1
Fig. 2 3D view of the La Fossa cone with the geological units pro-
posed by De Astis et al. (2006). Label “gp1” indicates varicoloured
pyroclastites forming the FG crater margin
The unstable slope is located at the top of the northern

flank, upslope from the Forgia Vecchia crater. The sequence
Vulcano Porto
Study area
of products (Dellino and La Volpe 1997, De Astis et al.
ISLAND OF
La Fossa cone
VULCANO 2006) is formed by a “core” consisting of a dry surge deposit
(laminated sands) up to 150 m thick overlaid by coarse
ISLAND OF VULCANO
grained (gravel- to cobble-size) fall products with thin
intercalations of sandy layers and by a lava flow closing
the eruptive cycle. This sequence is covered up to the ground
1 km
surface by a blanket of silty-sandy wet-surge varicoloured
pyroclastites (gp1 in Fig. 2), up to 20 m thick, which are
Fig. 1 Front view of the northern flank of the La Fossa cone, with the
Forgia Vecchia crater in the foreground and the main crater in the
entirely involved in the instability process. Here the younger
background; in the box the location of the Vulcano Island with the study products were almost completely eroded (Fig. 2).
area are shown
Volcanic Activity and Instability Phenomena

In particular, on the northern flank the unstable area
is delimited by tension cracks where high-temperature
In the unstable area, continuous fumarolic activity through
volcanic gases flow through. Since the slope overlooks the
fractures has determined a diffuse mineralization, conferring a
Vulcano Porto village, where most of resident population
higher consistency to the pyroclastite which around fractures
and touristic facilities are located, such a failure represents a
appears stiff and hard. Degassing, both concentrated along
major concern.
fractures and widespread over relatively large areas, displays
In the following sections, investigations carried out to set
recurrent periods of “unrest” characterized by larger vapour
up a geotechnical model of the northern flank are described
release.
and the results obtained by stability and runout analyses are
Different types of instability were recognized on La
presented and considerations on risk assessment and alert
Fossa cone (Tommasi et al. 2007). Far from paroxysmal
levels are discussed.
phases, the events documented or recognizable by morpho-
logical evidences are slides along pyroclastite layers (up to
200,000 m3 in volume), sheet slides over the whole slope of
Geology and Morphology the cone and slumps/topples on the northern flank.
The higher hazard is related to the slides in the
The subaerial part of the La Fossa edifice is a 400 m high pyroclastites in the eastern part of the cone facing the sea
pyroclastic cone with a base diameter of 1,200 m at sea level. and to the failures occurring on the northern flank along the
The cone is regular as a whole, with the exception of the upper rim of the FG crater (Fig. 3). The former can induce
Forgia Vecchia (FG) parasite crater on the northern slope tsunami waves propagating towards the harbour area (Porto
(Fig. 1). The cone overlies the materials filling the caldera di Levante) as it occurred in 1988. The latter can generate
generated by the collapse of the northern part of the island rock falls and debris avalanches which propagate over the
(Keller 1980). area located just above the Vulcano Porto village.
Stability Conditions and Evaluation of the Runout of a Potential Landslide at the. . . 311
Fig. 4 Point cloud detected by terrestrial laser scanning
photogrammetric workstation. This allowed the generation

Fig. 3 Summit area of the northern flank of La Fossa Cone of a 1 m grid Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and 1:500
overlooking the Forgia Vecchia crater. The dashed line indicates a
major tension fracture scale orthophoto map (Baldi et al. 2000). The slope of an
area influence the geomorphology and stability of a moun-
Occurrence of these events is increased by seismic tain flank. Therefore, we jointly analysed the 3D model of
actions, inflation and pore pressure changes during the inten- the slope overlapped to the most updated geological maps
sification of the volcanic activity. (De Astis et al. 2006) (Fig. 2).
The terrestrial laser scanning data were acquired during a
survey conducted in 2009 at Forgia Vecchia. The laser
The Forgia Vecchia Crater points cloud dataset (Fig. 4) was filtered and processed to
obtain 0.5 m grid DEM that was integrated with the 2001
Due to its position with respect to the inhabited area, insta- DEM (Fig. 5).
bility phenomena at the upper FG crater rim are analyzed in In order to detect possible changes in the topography of
the following sections. the area, we analysed the residual map which describes the
In this sector of the cone the upper rim of the FG crater difference in Z value between the two DEMs (2009 DEM
coincides with the top of the north-western flank. The upper- less 2001 DEM). The observed differences were explained
most part of the slope is subvertical. Proceeding downslope by the presence or growth of vegetation, construction of
the gradient progressively decreases down to the lower rim new buildings and in few cases by extremely localized
of the crater, where the slope steepen again down to the cone instabilities.
base (Fig. 1). The DEMs were used to reconstruct the global morphol-
The bottom of the crater represents an accumulation area ogy of the flank and to identify structural and morphological
of the material detached from the slope top. elements linked to past and possible future instabilities.
The area, located on the western part of the FG crater Definition of the possible failure geometry was aided by
(Figs. 1 and 3), presents the most apparent signs of active the exact location of fractures formed behind the rim
deformation and failures, highlighted by a set of tension edge (partially visible on the ortophoto) through GPS data
cracks that winds parallel to the slope edge (Fig. 3). Two collected in 2006 (Fig. 6).
of them are persistent and gaping thus favouring the detach-
ment of thick slices of material.
Location and Volume of the Potential Failure
Available Data The volume of the potential failure was considered to be

equal to that mobilized by a landslide along the critical slip
In order to reconstruct the geometry of the slope, aerial surface estimated through 3D limit equilibrium (LE)
photogrammetric data covering the whole island and terres- analyses. For the estimate of the potential failure, the slip
trial laser scanning data describing the steepest slopes were surface was supposed to be the combination of the innermost
integrated. tension crack and a roughly ellipsoidal surface. The choice
Photogrammetric data were acquired during a GPS-aided of an ellipsoidal surface is supported by the relative homo-
survey conducted in 2001 and processed using a digital geneity of the materials.
30
25
effective cohesion (kPa)

Altered
20 material
15
10
Fresh
material
5
20 24 28 32 36
shear strength angle(°)
Fig. 7 Couples of c0 –j0 data from back analyses and strength

parameters obtained from laboratory tests on the varicoloured
pyroclastites
high-resolution morphology depicted by the integrated

DEM (Fig. 5). Back analyses were conducted through the
CLARA-W code using the Bishop simplified method
extended to three dimensions (Hungr 1987) in order to
Fig. 5 Shaded relief of Forgia Vecchia zone obtained integrating the
2001 and 2009 DEMs. Area investigated through LE analyses are account for the particular morphology. Results are reported
indicated in Fig. 7: the envelope of the c0 and ’0 values lies between
c0 –’0 couples obtained from direct shear tests conducted by
Tommasi et al. (2007) on altered (argillified) and fresh
varicoloured pyroclastites. Since argillification was not
observed at the FG margin, values closer to those of the
fresh material were chosen (c’ ¼ 5 kPa, ’’ ¼ 34 ). Null
pore pressures were introduced and the unit weight of the
material was set equal to that of the samples of the
varicoloured pyroclastite in natural conditions.
LE analyses for evaluating the critical failure surface
and related slide volume were conducted with the same
numerical procedure used for the back analyses. The volume
of the slide along the critical slip surface is approximately
25,000 m3.
Runout Analyses
Fig. 6 Shaded relief view of DEM from 2001 photogrammetry survey
and GPS points that identify tension fractures
Once the potential slide volume had been determined,
dynamic analyses were carried out to evaluate maximum
Strength properties of the material introduced in LE runout distance and path of the debris avalanche after failure.
analyses for estimating the potential critical failure surface Analyses were conducted both in two and three
were derived from laboratory tests on the varicoloured dimensions using the DAN-W and DAN3D codes which
pyroclastites and on the basis of a back analysis of an old assimilate the avalanche mass to a fluid and are based on
slump at the FG crater rim recognised by aerial photo the integration of the St. Venant equation according to the
interpretation. Its geometry was reconstructed by the formulations proposed by Hungr (1995) and McDougall and
Stability Conditions and Evaluation of the Runout of a Potential Landslide at the. . . 313
200
Fig. 9 Area invaded by slide debris using a Voellmy model with (a)
200 m ¼ 0.12 and x ¼ 500 m/s2 or (b) m ¼ 0.15 and x ¼ 1,000 m/s2. On
the left thickness in metres of the final landslide deposit are displayed.
The source area is marked with an “S”
100
distances. Application of Voellmy rheology resulted in

more realistic maximum velocities (31 m/s).
0
Adopting a 3D approach, the influence of the three-

300 200 100 0
dimensional morphology has a marked influence on the
Fig. 8 Path used in 2D runout analyses runout of a purely frictional slide mass: this is entirely
captured by the FG crater which acts as a natural barrier. If
Hungr (2004), respectively. The internal dynamic behaviour a Voellmy rheology is applied, the slide mass overrides the
of the mass is controlled by friction only whilst at the lower FG crater rim and owns sufficient energy to reach the
avalanche base both frictional and frictional/turbulent inhabited area. In this case runout distances does not vary
behaviour (Voellmy) rheology are envisaged. significantly when m and x pass from 0.12 to 0.15 and from
Major uncertainties derived from the choice of the type of 1,000 to 500 respectively (Fig. 9). This result could be again
rheology and of related parameters because their estimate explained by the greater influence of the pronounced convex
through back analysis of past avalanche events was not morphology of the FG crater on the frictional component.
possible. In fact no reliable quantitative information on The frictional rheology could be more realistic if the
geometry and location of slope failures and related ava- sliding mass would remain dry during the path. A Voellmy
lanche deposits was available. A literature research was rheology could better depict the dynamic behaviour of the
therefore addressed towards back analyses of debris avalanche if soon after the detachment, wet material, depos-
avalanches or similar phenomena in volcanic formations, ited in the crater, would be entrained by the moving mass,
possibly in dry conditions. The most similar case was the especially if the crater shape would channelize the flow
2001 Las Colinas landslide which involved volcanic (Ayotte and Hungr 2000).
materials with a shear strength angle of 34 overlying a
tuff bedrock. McDougall and Hungr (2004) found that the Conclusions
best agreement between calculated and actual path was Quantitative assessment of the landslide hazard and conse-
found using a friction coefficient (m) of 0.15 and a turbulence quently of the risk in the northern part of the Island of
coefficient (x) equal to 1,000 m/s2 with a Voellmy rheology, Vulcano poses a number of problems which can be only
whilst the basal friction angle which best fits field partially overcome through investigations and geotechni-
observations was 12 . cal analyses. At Vulcano Island consequences of failure are
Two-dimensional analyses were conducted by means of mainly related to the area overlooked by the slope of the La
DAN-W along a conservative profile following the maxi- Fossa cone, which has been progressively urbanized during
mum elevation gradient (Fig. 8). In this case frictional rhe- the last 20 years. In fact the slope is neither inhabited nor
ology provided extremely high velocities and runout crossed by footpaths directed to the excursion area at the
top of the main crater. This entails that runout estimate is time for alerting authorities in charge of civil protection
the main concern. procedures.
A major improvement in the quantitative description
of the slope surface, to be utilized in stability and runout References
analysis, has been introduced by increasing the quality of
the photogrammetric digital model by merging it with a Ayotte D, Hungr O (2000) Calibration of a runout prediction model for
terrestrial laser scanner survey. This allowed: (1) the debris-flows and avalanches. In: Wieczorek GF, Naeser ND (eds)
recognition and exact location of structural and morpho- Proceedings of the 2nd international conference on debris-flow
hazards mitigation, Taipei, pp 505–514
logical evidences of past and possible failures (which Baldi P, Bonvalot S, Briole P, Marsella M (2000) Digital photogram-
aided back- and predictive slope stability analyses); (2) metry and kinematic GPS applied to the monitoring of Vulcano
a better definition of morphology for runout analyses. In Island, Aeolian Arc, Italy. Geophys J Int 142:801–811.
particular the first issue was instrumental in evaluating doi: 10.1046/j.1365-246x.2000.00194x
De Astis G, Dellino P, La Volpe L, Lucchi F, Tranne CA (2006) Carta
operative strength of a partially and not homogeneously Geologica dell’Isola diVulcano 1:10000. De Astis G, La Volpe L
altered pyroclastic material and in assessing the volume (eds) Litografia Artistica Cartografica. Firenze
of the potential critical failure at the slope top. Dellino P, La Volpe L (1997) Stratigrafia, dinamiche eruttive
Major uncertainties remain on the evaluation of the e deposizionali, scenario eruttivo e valutazioni di pericolosità a La
Fossa di Vulcano. In: La Volpe L, Dellino P, Nuccio PM, Privitera
maximum runout distance even though DAN3D analyses E and Sbrana A (eds), Progetto Vulcano – Risultati delle attività di
were conducted with rheological parameters obtained by ricerca 1993–1995, Felici Editore, Pisa, pp 214–237
other Authors from back analyses of avalanche/flows in Hungr O (1987) An extension of Bishop’s simplified method of slope
volcaniclastic materials. In particular the choice of the stability analysis to three dimensions. Geotechnique 37:113–117
Hungr O (1995) A model for the runout analysis of rapid flow slides,
rheology is determinant for assessing if the avalanche debris flows and avalanches. Can Geotech J 32(4):610–623
may reach or not the inhabited area. An aid to switch Keller J (1980) The island of Vulcano. Rendiconti Società di
from frictional to Voellmy rheology could come from Mineralogia e Petrologia 36(1):369–414
investigation on thickness and moisture conditions of McDougall S, Hungr O (2004) A model for the analysis of rapid
landslide motion across three-dimensional terrain. Can Geotech J
the debris deposit filling the FG crater. 41(6):1084–1097. doi:10.1139/t04-052
These considerations deserve further runout analyses Tommasi P, Graziani A, Rotonda T, Bevivino C (2007) Preliminary
with other methods and highlight the importance of a analysis of instability phenomena at Vulcano Island, Italy. In:
continuous monitoring of the source area in order to Malheiro AM, Nunes JC (eds) Volcanic rocks. Taylor & Francis,
London. ISBN 978-0-415-45140-6, pp 147–154
detect acceleration of deformations at the slope top in
Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification
of Dynamic Run-Out Model Parameters
for Landslides
B. Quan Luna, J. Cepeda, A. Stumpf, C.J. van Westen, A. Remaı̂tre,

J.-P. Malet, and T.W.J. van Asch
Abstract
The main goals of landslide run-out modeling should be the assessment of future landslide
activity with a range of potential scenarios, and the information of the local populations
about the hazards in order to enable informed response measures. In recent times, numeri-
cal dynamic run-out models have been developed which can assess the velocity and extent
of motion of rapid landslides such as debris flows and avalanches, flow slides and rock
avalanches. These models are physically-based and solved numerically, simulating the
movement of the flow using constitutive laws of fluid mechanics in one or two dimensions.
Resistance parameters and release volumes are crucial for a realistic simulation of the
landslide behavior, whereas it is generally difficult to measure them directly in the field.
Uncertainties in the parameterization of these models yield many uncertainties concerning
their frequency values, which must be addressed in a proper risk assessment. Based on
the probability density functions of release volumes and friction coefficients of a given
landslide model, this work aims to systematically quantify the uncertainties in the run-
out modeling. The obtained distributions can be used as an input for a probabilistic
methodology where the uncertainties in the release volume and friction coefficients (rheo-
logical parameters) inside the dynamic models can be addressed. This will improve the
confidence of the dynamic run-out model outputs such as the distribution of deposits in
the run-out area, velocities and impact pressures, important components for a risk analysis
and regulatory zoning.
Keywords
Run-out Uncertainty Landslides
Introduction
Numerical dynamic models of different complexities have

B.Q. Luna (*) C.J. van Westen been developed for modeling the behavior and physical
United Nations University – School for Disaster Geo-information properties of fluid-like geomorphological processes. The
Management ITC, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands
practical use of these models is mainly to assess the reach
and impact forces of the flows for the design of mitigation
J. Cepeda
Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), Oslo, Norway
measures (deflection or catching dams) and the creation of
hazard maps. Dynamic models use constitutive laws of solid
A. Stumpf A. Remaı̂tre J.-P. Malet
School and Observatory of Earth Sciences CNRS, University of
and fluid mechanics and apply physical laws to calculate the
Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France flow run-out in one (1-D) or two (2-D) dimensions in a
T.W.J. van Asch
determined topography array. One dimensional (1-D) models
Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands are usually lumped-mass models and can be used in case

316 B.Q. Luna et al.
of debris flows which are confined in gullies. In this case force (m) and the other of viscous type, in which the drag
the 1-D flow path is well known. The 2-D models are able is assumed proportional to the velocity squared (x). The
to simulate unconfined debris flows and to predict the 2D friction slope for a Voellmy fluid is (1):
extension on alluvial fans. The 2-D models can route the
flow over irregular topographic terrains. They need however U2
Sf ¼ mcosc þ (1)
an accurate and detailed digital elevation model (DEM) xh
(Hürlimann et al 2007). Most 2-D models are based on
a “continuum approach” where the bulk behavior of the where, Sf is the friction slope, m is the apparent friction
simulated flowing mass can approximate to the expected coefficient, f the friction angle, U is the flow velocity
bulk behavior of the real mixture of the solid and fluid phases and x is the turbulent coefficient (m/s2). The parameters
(Hungr and McDougall 2009). Continuum models solve m and x are constants whose magnitudes depend, respec-
the conservation equations of mass and momentum and tively, on the flow properties and the roughness of the
are often applied through a depth-averaged approach that flow surface (Christen et al. 2010). Revellino et al. in 2004
integrates the internal stresses in either vertical or bed-normal gives a thorough explanation of the advantages of using the
directions to obtain a form of Saint-Venant equations (shallow Voellmy model for analyzing flows. The model treats the
water assumption) (van Asch et al. 2007). The depth-averaged liquefied granular material is treated as a frictional fluid with
shallow water equation approach using different solvers has a constant pore-pressure ratio. This assumption produces the
been applied commonly for numerical simulations of rapid first term, the friction constant m, being the tangent of the
mass movements over complex topographies (e.g., Iverson dynamic effective friction angle. The second term accounts
and Denlinger 2001; Pitman and Le 2005; Pudasaini and for an expected increase of the resisting stress as a result
Hutter 2007). Depth averaging allows representing the rheol- of increasing velocity. The velocity value is squared, similar
ogy of the flow as a single term that expresses the frictional as in a flow which is rheologically similar to a turbulent
forces that interact at the interface between the flow and flow. The use of the turbulent coefficient can be explained
the bed path. One of the most common type of rheology by the experimental finding of Bagnold in 1954 where the
frequently used in the dynamic models is the frictional- resisting shear stress in a fully inertial flow of grain disper-
turbulent “Voellmy” resistance proposed initially for snow sion at constant volume varies with the square of velocity.
avalanches (Voellmy 1955) and used for granular cohesion- Various authors have used the Voellmy model to simulate
less material with or without the presence of a pore fluid. the run-out from extreme avalanches and have calibrated the
This model predicts a terminal velocity that scales as the friction coefficients for past events (Hungr and McDougall
square root of the flow height. 2009; McKinnon et al. 2008; McDougall and Hungr 2005).
The goal of this study was to analyze the previous Their findings shows that the Voellmy model gives better
work done by other authors regarding the calibration of the results in terms of velocity distributions and the location and
Voellmy model according to past events of different types thickness of deposits than other rheologies normally used in
of rapid gravity flows that can hint a range of values modeling flows (i.e. Bingham, Frictional).
of the rheological parameters. This can be defined by proba-
bility density functions that can be later used for further
stochastic analysis of the models. Database Compilation and Parametric
Analysis of the Voellmy Model
The Voellmy Rheology To model and simulate flow behavior and physical
characteristics of an event and the different phenomena
This model features a velocity-squared resistance term that happen during the occurrence of an event (i.e. erosion,
(turbulent coefficient x) similar to the Chezy resistance for layering) can be a difficult task. The complexity of the flow
turbulent water flow in open channels and a Coulomb-like processes and its activity are tried to be characterized by
friction (apparent friction coefficient m). Today, the values a rheological model; that generalizes the flow as a
of these parameters are still the subject of research. The single phase mixture with representative friction parameters.
model assumptions are incompressibility of the flow along Currently, there is no standard procedure to determine the
the whole path; constant discharge and small variations rheological parameters that can characterize the solid-fluid
of flow height along the track; and non-steady quasi-rigid mixture. Dynamic model friction coefficients can not or
body movement both in the starting and the run-out zone. are very cumbersome to be measured directly in the field.
Voellmy (1955) established this model using a fundamental They are usually determined by back-calibration to repro-
hydraulic theory with two resistive force contributions, duce a well documented past event run-out. The resulting
one in which the shear force is proportional to the normal modeled velocities and depths can be used to calculate
Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of Dynamic Run-Out Model Parameters for. . . 317
Fig. 2 Best-fitting gamma functions for the turbulent coefficients of

events in the four environmental classes
Fig. 1 Best-fitting gamma functions for the friction coefficients of Voellmy model regarding the type of movement (debris
events in the four environmental classes flows and rock avalanches) and their environment (alpine,
glacial, tropical/subtropical and volcanic.
in detail the impact pressures in the run-out zone. Back-
analyses of past-events are the most common practice for
estimating friction coefficients. The parameters are itera-
tively altered until the model results demonstrate a fit with Probability Density Functions
the past field observations. A further source of uncertainties
arises from the back analysis itself, whereas existing Numerous studies on the statistical properties of landslide
models use different numerical schemes to approximate a inventories have demonstrated that the probability distribu-
solution of the governing equations. Back-analysis can be tion of landslide areas and volumes can be approximated
problematic in many cases where there is no information by heavily-tailed PDFs (e.g. Hovius et al. 1997; Malamud
on the behavior of the flow, making difficult to define and et al 2004; Guzzetti et al. 2002; Antiano and Gosse 2009;
select the correct rheological parameters. Another approach Stark and Guzzetti 2009; Brunetti et al. 2010). Power
for estimating friction coefficients can be obtained from law distributions of those parameters can be observed for
modeling flows in similar or close by topography. Uncer- historical inventories as well as for event-based inventories
tainty in the release mass and friction coefficients can be mapped directly after regional triggering events.
simulated with dynamic models, improving confidence Assuming that power-law scaling may determine the prob-
in the runout, impact pressures and return intervals. Also, ability distribution of other physical factors in a similar fash-
various scenarios can be modeled to see which yields reli- ion it was investigated if the turbulent coefficient and the
able impact pressures for a given position in the runout zone. friction coefficient can be approximated with heavily-tailed
This can be the starting point to establish probability-density PDFs. Thirty-three different functions including Weibul,
functions that may provide a starting point to better estimate Frechet, Levy, Pareto, Burr and Gamma and other commonly
ranges where the data situation is poor (Brunetti et al. 2010). used PDFs were tested approximate probability distributions
As a first step towards a stochastic analysis of ranges of the coefficients in the database. The underlying physical
and uncertainties of model parameters and their effects model constrains the coefficients to positive values and
on run-out modeling we began with the compilation of a suggests sharply decreasing probabilities for very small fric-
database from past-analyzed events. At present it includes tion and turbulent coefficient approaching zero. All PDFs
a number of 270 past events, with observations on process which were not fulfilling those criteria were disregarded and
types, volumes, run-out behaviors, rock-types, etc. and the remaining solution where compared according to their
rheological parameters derived from model back-calibration goodness of fit.
of past events. The database was compiled from peer- Figures 1, 2, and 3 shows a family of Gamma functions
reviewed literature and unpublished material of all collabo- which consistently provided a reasonable approximation
rators. The database was divided in simulations using the of the probability distributions. In most cases the generalized
318 B.Q. Luna et al.
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Effects of Grain-Size Composition Examined in
Laboratory and Numerical Tests on Artificial
Mud-Flows
Simonetta Cola, Nancy Calabrò, Paolo Simonini, and Manuel Pastor
Abstract
This paper deals with a laboratory and numerical research on mudflows performed in with
the aim to study the interrelations between the grain-size composition of the mud and its
rheological properties at different solid concentrations. Furthermore, the predicting capa-
bility of a new numerical model in reproducing the flow of viscous materials is evaluated.
Keywords
Mudflows Viscous materials Run-out model Grain-size composition
Introduction flow-like landslides the average depths are small in compari-

son with their length or width: in these conditions it is possible
Mudflows, or more generally earth-flows, represent a perma- to simplify the 3D propagation model by integrating its
nent hazard in large part of Italian territory. A clear under- equations along the vertical axis. The resulting 2D depth-
standing of these phenomena is required to analyse integrated model presents an excellent combination of accu-
landslides risk and to optimize slope stabilisation strategies. racy and simplicity, providing information about propagation,
The risk strictly depends on the run-out, magnitude and such as velocity or depth of the flow along the path. For
displacement rate of mudflows. Particularly, the rate, rang- instance, Hutter and his co-workers (Savage and Hutter
ing between some mm/y and some tens of m/s, is the key 1991; Hutter and Koch 1991) or Laigle and Coussot (1997)
factor for risk assessment. have successfully used some depth-integrated models to
The distinctive features of mudflow are related to the model flow-like landslides.
slope morphology and the physical and rheological Recently, Cola et al. (2008) analysed the propagation of
properties of the involved materials, which are responsible Tessina earth-flow (Fig. 1) with a depth-integrated SPH
for their long travel distances (up to tens of kilometres) and model (Pastor et al. 2008). This model integrates a 2D
the high velocities they may attain. Among these factors, the propagation model with the method of Smoothed Particle
most relevant are the geotechnical soil properties (water Hydro-dynamics, SPH, a new integration approach sepa-
content, grain size, plasticity properties, etc.). rately proposed by Lucy (1977) and Gingold and Monaghan
In the last 20 years, researchers have developed a number (1977).
of new sophisticated numerical models for the propagation In their work, Cola et al. described the rheological
prediction in the framework of the continuum and discrete behavior of the soil involved in Tessina earth-flow by
element mechanics. These models hypothesis that for many means of the Bingham model, with parameters calibrated
on tests performed on the soil fine fraction only. They
evidenced the important role played by the viscosity on
S. Cola (*) N. Calabrò P. Simonini the predicted propagation and the need for rheological
Università di Padova, Dip. Image, Via Ognissanti 39, 35129 Padova,
Italy
parameters calibrated on the behavior of entire soil for a
e-mail: [email protected] more reliable prediction of real events. At the same time,
M. Pastor
they showed the importance of checking the numerical
Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain

320 S. Cola et al.
rheometer, determining the shear stress in steady state con-

dition at 300 and 600 r/min, and interpreting the readings
with the Bingham law. The Bingham viscosity mb and the
yield strength tc were determined for a solid concentration
varying from 20 % to 35 % (Fig. 3). According to previous
researches (O’Brien and Julien 1988; Major and Pierson
1992; Coussot and Piau 1994), mb and tc depend on solid
concentration by exponential laws, which, in this case, turn
out to be as follows:
tc ¼ 0:268e17:5cv (1)
mb ¼ 5:6 104 e12:7cv (2)
with the solid concentration vc defined as:

Fig. 1 View of Tessina landslide and sampling location Vs 1
cv ¼ 100 ¼ (3)
VT 1 þ GS W
model reliability on the base of well-documented flow
phenomena, condition seldom if ever verified. being VS the solid fraction volume, VT the total volume of
Tests on small-scale physical model represent an alterna- the sample, GS the specific gravity of the soil particles and
tive powerful tool for investigating the mudflow behaviour W the water content.
in controlled conditions, allowing high precision monitoring In the narrow analyzed range, the yield strength and
of important features, such as the advancing rate of the mud plastic viscosity vary significantly, rising from 10 to
wave or the thickness of the tongue, and, at the same time, 140 Pa and from 0.002 to 0.08 Pa·s respectively.
permitting to evaluate the influence of soil properties on the Two rectangular metallic planes (50 100 cm) laid in
propagation process. Finally, the knowledge gained by labo- series (Fig. 4) constituted the experimental apparatus for
ratory tests may be used to validate, improve and calibrate reproducing mudflows. The first plane, set up with a 30
numerical models describing this kind of phenomena. dip angle, was roughened by medium-fine sand glued on the
This paper describes an experimental research carried out surface; the second was smooth and horizontal to halt the
at the University of Padova on small artificial mudflows and flow. A Plexiglas box, having a facing gate and two triangu-
the following calibration activity for the assessment of the lar sides (7 14 12 cm), spaced out of 15 cm, was fixed
new SPH model. on the top of the inclined plane and contained a 636.5 cm3
sample of soil before the test beginning. In order to minimize
the material adhesion on the Plexiglas walls, the internal
Testing Program faces were lubricated with Teflon oil.
A digital camera placed above the experimental appara-
Experimental tests were performed on three remoulded tus, at a 90 angle to the oblique plane, acquired photos of
samples obtained from material collected at the toe of the the running mud at a rate of 20 fps and permitted to accu-
large Tessina mudflow (Belluno, Italy), along the closing rately follow the movements of the soil after the manual
channel near Funes village (Fig. 1). lifting of the gate.
The in-situ material originates from the alteration of in-situ To analyze the effect of soil composition on the mudflow
rocks, mainly Flysch rock composed by alternating layers of run-out three kinds of material were tested, all of them
hard limestone and week siltstone. This is evident from the obtained removing or substituting the coarsest particles in
grain-size curve (Fig. 2) showing two distinct portions within the original soil (Fig. 2). According to the aforementioned
the majority of soil gathers: a coarse fraction, constituted by definition of fine fraction, the compositions of the examined
limestone fragments and retained on n.40 ASTM sieve, and materials were:
the remaining fine fraction, originated from the breaking up of
the highest silt content layers. The fine fraction, or matrix, is A – 100 % of fine fraction;
medium-low plasticity inorganic clay with average liquid and B – 90.5 % of fine fraction and 9.5 % of sandy fraction
plastic limits equal to 39 and 19 respectively. (portion passing the n.7 ASTM sieve and retained on
The rheological behaviour of the fine fraction was n.40 ASTM sieve);
investigated by means of tests with the FANN V-G C – 57 % of fine fraction and 43 % of sandy fraction.
Effects of Grain-Size Composition Examined in Laboratory and Numerical Tests on. . . 321
100
Sample A
80
Sample C
Passing material, %
Sample B
60
Original soil
n.40ASTM Seive
n.7ASTM Seive
40
20
Coarse fraction Fine fraction
0
100 10 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001
Diameter, mm
Fig. 2 Grain size distribution of sample collected in Tessina earth-flow and of recomposed samples
Water content, W (%)

250 150 100 75 62.5 Plexiglas box for the soil
160 Triangular Facing gate
edge
Yield stress,τ o (Pa)
Soil sample
120
0,07 m
17.5cv
τo=0.268.e
80 m 0,
5m
0,5 14
m
0 ,1
40 1m
0 0 .7
5m
1m
Viscosity, μ d (Pa.s)
0.06
12.7cv
μd =0.00056.e
0.04 30
0.02
Fig. 4 Set up of equipment for mud-flow test
0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
Solid concentration, cv =Vs/V Experimental Results
Fig. 3 Bingham yielding stress and viscosity versus solid concentra-
tion for the fine fraction of mud (data from two soils)
The run-out of soil downhill the rough plane was always
very rapid: after only 10–3000 the material reduced signifi-
cantly its displacement rate. The Fig. 5 shows two typical
final configurations of the mud tongue. The composition and
Since the water content affects both the matrix and global solid concentration strongly affected the distance covered by
consistences, the samples A, B and C were prepared at a the mass, varying from some centimetres to more that 75 cm.
54–70 % of the fine fraction or matrix water content Wf, The Fig. 6 shows the evolution of the tip maximum
defined as: displacement and tongue spreading observed with time dur-
ing the tests with sample A. Analogous trends were obtained
PW with other mixtures, even if they are not here reported for
Wf ¼ 100 (4)
Ps;FF brevity.
As noticed above, the phenomenon developed very
where PW is the water weight and Ps,FF the dried weight of quickly: it came to a halt in about 1 s. We can identify
the fine fraction. an initial stretch with a parabolic course and constant
322 S. Cola et al.
a In Fig. 7a the maximum tip displacements measured in

the tests are related to the global water content W. An
exponential law, also reported in Fig. 7a, may fit the results
of tests for the same sample.
The fitting curve does not accurately interpolate the
highest data for sample A, maybe because in this test the
flow reached the end of the inclined plane and continued its
path on the horizontal plane, as shown in Fig. 6.
A-W=58%
Nevertheless, the correlation coefficients are always very
b good suggesting that the cv controlled the flow as well as the
viscosity parameters. Since this occurred for all the samples,
we deduce that, even if the sample C contains a large amount
of coarse particles, its flow was still affected by the viscosity
of the material.
Supposing that the fitting curve has the same trend also at
water contents higher than those tested, the fitting curves of
C-W=36% sample C and B would be above the curve of sample A,
Fig. 5 Mud final configuration in two tests indicating that, at the same water content, the sample A
travels for the shortest distances and, vice versa, the sample
C reaches the longest distances.
90
End of the inclinated plane On the other hand, if we plotted the same data as a
80 function of the fine fraction water content Wf (Fig. 7b), all
70 the points lie in a narrow area. This indicates the key role of
Tip displacement, cm
fine fraction consistence in determining the mixture

60
behaviour, or, in other words, we may say that only this
50 fraction controls the viscous response of soil. If the sandy
fraction is there in small amount, it seems to be a constrain
40
(sample B), but when it increases a lot, it behaves as a dead
30 Sample A weight in the mixture, that increases the forces inducing the
20 W=67% sliding along the plane without contributing to the viscosity
W=64% of whole sample.
10 W=61% Unfortunately, it is not possible to draw any conclusions
Tongue width, cm
W=58% due to the small number of performed tests. Further investi-

0
25 gation is required to elucidate the role of the composition of
20 the soil in the behaviour of these processes.
15
0 1 2 3 4
Time, s Run-Out Mathematical Model
Fig. 6 Tip displacement and tongue width versus time in some tests
with sample A
The depth-averaged model derived from the Biot–Zienkiewicz
equations for non-linear materials and large deformation
problems, i.e. the balance of mass and the balance of linear
acceleration, then a deceleration phase up to the mass stop. momentum for the mixture soil skeleton–pore fluid:
The inflection point of the curve points out the instant
(breaking time) at which the velocity is maximum. The Ds r
lateral spreading showed the same trend, even if its variation þ rdivvs ¼ 0 (5)
Dt
is smaller, since the width of the tongue increased from 15 to
24–25 cm only. Ds vs
Both the total displacement and the tongue width r ¼ rb þ divs (6)
Dt
increased consistently with the water content, therefore
greater is the water content more deformable is the soil where Ds refers to a material derivative following the soil
mass. The breaking time also increased with water content. particles, r is the density of the soil and vs the velocity of soil
Fig. 7 Maximum tongue 100
Maximum tip displacement, Lmax (cm)

elongation in relation to the Sample A
global water content (a) and the
matrix water content (b) 80 Sample B
Sample C
60
40
20
a b
0
30 40 50 60 70 60 70
Global water content, W (%) Matrix water content, Wf (%)
skeleton, b the body forces and s the Cauchy stress tensor. normal to the base. The mobilized shear stress related to a
The integration of the above equations along the vertical axis depth z is:
taking into account the Leibniz’s rule in a Lagrangian form
is difficult, because the integration is not performed in a t ¼ rgðh zÞseny (9)
material volume. T avoid this difficulty the model refers to
an equivalent 2D continuum in which each moving point The general rheological law is:
represents a column of material, extending from the bottom
to the free surface and travelling with the depth-averaged @vx
t ¼ c þ sn tgf þ m
velocity. @x3
This is not an exact Lagrangian formulation, because the @vx
moving points have no connection with material particles, ¼ c þ rgðh zÞcosytgf þ m (10)
@x3
but it can be denominated either ‘quasi-Lagrangian’ or arbi-
trary Lagrangian–Eulerian formulation. Its main advantage where c is the cohesion, sn the normal stress and f the fiction
is a consistent reduction of the calculation time compared to angle. By combining the three contributions in (10) it is
a standard finite element code based on an Eulerian possible to extract different rheological models (Newtonian
approach. model, frictional model, and so on).
The depth-integrated relations derived from (5) and (6) in In this study, we have considered the mud behaving as a
the quasi-Lagrangian formulation result: Bingham fluid, since the Bingham model is suitable for
flows with high water content and clay percentages greater
@ @h than 10 %. The rheological relations become:
ðh
vj Þ þ ¼0 j ¼ 1; 2 (7)
@xj @t
@vx @vx
t¼cþm for 6 0
¼
@ @ @ @x3 @x3
r ðh
vj Þ þ vi vj Þ ¼
ðh ðh
sij Þ þ tAj þ tBj þ rbj h (8) (11)
@t @xj @xj @vx
t bc ¼ t c for ¼0
@x3
where h is the landslide thickness, vj the depth averaged
velocity and the terms tjA and tjB are the normal stress acting where the second hypothesis implies that for t < tc there is
on the surface and bottom respectively. no reciprocal motion and the material moves as a rigid block
The above results depend on the chosen rheological (plug zone).
model, which, relating the stress tensor to the rate of Finally, (7) and (8) are solved with the method known as
strain tensor d and, consequently, to the velocity field vs, Smoothed Particle Hydro-dynamics or SPH, a particle
ij .
influences the basal friction and depth integrated stresses s method in which the flow domain is represented by nodal
In the analysis of flow-like landslides the instantaneous flow points that move with the flow and are scattered in space
at a given point may be studied as a uniform steady-state with no definable grid structure. Each nodal point carries
flow. Considering a 1D flow along a channel dip with a scalar information, such as density, pressure, velocity
constant angle y, the only no-null velocity component is components, etc. Interaction between the nodal points and
vx ¼ u parallel to the base, which varies along the axis interpolation from a set of N nodes to find the value of a
324 S. Cola et al.
Fig. 8 Kernel function representation
particular quantity at an arbitrary point is obtained with a

weighting function, also named the kernel function o
smoothing function (Fig. 8).
For more details about the mathematical and numerical
formulations, see also Pastor et al. 2008. Here, we remember
Fig. 9 Initial particles configuration and terrain mesh for the numeri-
only that an important numerical parameter of the model is
cal model
the smoothing length h0 , defined as the distance from each
node where the weighting function becomes null (Fig. 8).
100
Among the input data for the numerical, one has to assign the End of the inclinated plane
parameter h0 or the no-size ratio k ¼ h0 /i, with i the initial 90
spacing of integration point. 80
Tip displacement, cm
70
60
Numerical Tests
50
Figure 9 shows the mesh reproducing the experimental 40

apparatus, formed by a grid with 10,547 nodes spaced of 30
A-W=67%
0.1 m, and the initial position of the mud mass, modelled 20 k = 0.5
through 2,601 particles with an initial spacing i ¼ 0.005 m. k= 2
10
Two experimental tests, i.e. the tests A–W ¼ 57 % and k = 10
A–W ¼ 67 %, were simulated adopting viscosity parameters 0
0 1 2 3 4
from (1) and (2). Time, s
Since the integration scheme is explicit, the time and
space steps Dt e Dx have to satisfy the relation: Fig. 10 Effect of the smoothing length on the run-out of mudflows:
comparison with data from test A–W ¼ 67 %.
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
Dt Dx= ghmax (12)
corresponding h0 , the greater is the number N of nodes
where hmax is the maximum value of h, equal to 7 cm in the utilized for the interpolation by the kernel function: conse-
artificial mudflows. Consequently, in addition to the rheo- quently, with high values of k the nodes result more bonded
logical quantities, the parameters controlling the numerical one to each other and, consequently, the mass resulted more
model are the integration steps Dt e Dx and the smoothing constrained and covered a smaller maximum distance, like it
length h0 . To emphasize the effect of h0 , we adopted fixed is evident in Fig. 10.
values for Dt e Dx¸ 0.006 s and 0.01 m respectively, and For k equal to 2 we find the best correspondence between
calibrated the value of k on the base of test A–W ¼ 67 %. experimental and numerical curves: both the curves reach
Figure 10 compares the tip displacement vs. time curves the complete stop in about 2 s and the numerical predicted
calculated by the model in tests with k ¼ 0.5, 2 and 10 with maximum displacement is 84 cm, against the experimental
the experimental data. Since the greater is k, and the value of 77.2 cm.
Fig. 11 Tongue configurations in the experimental and numerical tests for (a) A–W ¼ 57 % and (b) A–W ¼ 67 %.
The numerical data deviated from the experimental one

only at the beginning of the process when the simulated flow References
is faster than the experimental one.
Finally, Fig. 11 compares the experimentally observed and Cola S, Calabrò N, Pastor M (2008) Prediction of the flow-like
movements of Tessina landslide by a SPH model. In: Proceedings
numerically predicted configurations of the mudflow at dif-
of the 10th international symposium on landslide and engineering
ferent instants during the reference tests. The phenomenon is slopes, Xi’an, China, vol. 1. Taylor & Francis, The Netherlands,
properly identified and the mud path and the final tongue form pp 647–653
are in agreement with experimental observations. Coussot P, Piau JM (1994) On the behaviour of fine mud suspensions.
Rheol Acta 33:175–184
Gingold RA, Monaghan JJ (1977) Smoothed particle hydro-dynamics:
Conclusion
theory and application to non-spherical stars. Mon Not R Astron
The paper presents some experimental data on small Soc 81:375–389
laboratory mudflow performed with various soil compo- Hutter K, Koch T (1991) Motion of a granular avalanche in an expo-
nentially curved chute: experiments and theorical predictions. Phil
sition and solid concentration: the results highlight the
Trans R Soc Lond 334:93–138
crucial role of fine fraction in controlling the viscosity Laigle D, Coussot P (1997) Numerical modeling of mudflows.
and the overall behaviour of these phenomena. J Hydraul Eng, ASCE 123(7):617–623
The adopted SPH depth-averaged model, which con- Lucy LB (1977) A numerical approach to testing of fusion process.
Astron J 82:1013–1024
siders the mud as a Bingham fluid, proved to be able to
Major JJ, Pierson TC (1992) Debris flow rheology: experimental analysis
reproduce the observed experimental behaviour as shown of fine-grained slurries. Water Resour Res 28:841–857
by the good agreement between the experimental and Pastor M, Haddad B, Sorbino G, Cuomo S, Drempetic V (2008)
numerical run-out distance, lateral spreading and develop- A depth integrated coupled SPH model for flow-like landslides
and related phenomena. Int J Numer Anal Meth Geomech
ment in time of the process.
33:143–172
Acknowledgements This paper is a part of the research Project O’Brien JS, Julien PY (1988) Laboratory analysis of mudflow
MoVeMit financed by the funding of the “Fondazione Cassa di properties. J Hydraul Eng, ASCE 110:877–887
Risparmio di Verona, Vicenza, Belluno e Mantova”. The authors wish Savage SB, Hutter K (1991) The dynamics of avalanches on granular
thanking also the “Fondazione Angelini” of Belluno and the CNR-IRPI materials from initiation to runout. Part I: Anal. Acta Mech 86,
of Padova, which covenant this activity research. Madrid 2001, pp 201–223
Slope Instabilities in High-Mountain
Rock Walls. Recent Events on the Monte Rosa
East Face (Macugnaga, NW Italy)
Andrea Tamburini, Fabio Villa, Luzia Fischer, Oldrich Hungr, Marta Chiarle,
and Giovanni Mortara
Abstract
The Monte Rosa east face (Macugnaga, Italian Alps) is one of the highest flanks in the Alps.
Steep hanging glaciers and permafrost cover large parts of the wall. Since the end of the
Little Ice Age (about 1850) the Monte Rosa east face is undergoing a progressive reduction
of its ice cover; moreover new instability phenomena related to permafrost degradation and
rapid deglaciation have been occurring since over a decade ago. The progressive destabili-
zation of high-mountain faces is a consequence of many factors, such as topography,
geological and structural conditions, intense freeze-thaw activity and oversteepened slopes
from glacial erosion.
Two major events, an ice avalanche occurred in August 2005 and a rock avalanche
occurred in April 2007 are briefly described in this paper. In both cases, the accumulation
area was located on the Belvedere Glacier at the foot of the Monte Rosa east face.
A 3D dynamic model (DAN3D) was applied in order to back analyze the runout of the
events, enabling the calibration of the input parameters for the assumed rheological models.
Keywords
High mountain rock walls Permafrost degradation Rock avalanche Runout
modelling DAN3D
Introduction elevation of 3,800 m a.s.l. The detached ice slab rapidly

fragmented, evolving in an ice-avalanche which flowed
On August 25th, 2005 a huge ice slab of about 1 106 m3, down, eroding and entrapping debris and ice along its path.
overhanging the Belvedere Glacier, detached from the Monte The main volume spread and stopped at the foot of the rock
Rosa east face (NW Italian Alps), at an approximate wall (Fig. 1), partially filling the huge depression of the
“Lago Effimero”, a supraglacial lake of more than 3 million
m3 formed in summer 2002 and drained in summer 2003,
A. Tamburini (*) F. Villa as a consequence of a surge-type evolution of the Belvedere
Imageo S.r.l., via Valperga Caluso 35, Torino, Italy
Glacier (Haeberli et al. 2002; Kääb et al. 2004; Tamburini
and Mortara. 2005). The avalanche blow reached the
L. Fischer
Landslide Department, Geological Survey of Norway (NGU),
Zamboni hut, located more than 3 km downstream, luckily
Trondheim, Norway without any casualty or damage.
O. Hungr
Surveys carried out immediately after the events allowed
UBC University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada to outline the ice-rock avalanche accumulation areas and to
M. Chiarle
describe the morphological and depositional features of both
National Research Council (CNR-IRP)I, Torino, Italy deposits. Seismic and meteorological data recorded during
G. Mortara
the events provided useful data for a more exhaustive inter-
Comitato Glaciologico Italiano (CGI), Torino, Italy pretation of their mechanisms. Aerial photos taken before

328 A. Tamburini et al.
Fig. 1 Detachment and accumulation areas of the August 2005 ice avalanche and April 2007 rock avalanche
and after the events provided detailed maps of the accumu- A description of the above mentioned events follows. A
lation area. complete and detailed study of the evolution of the Monte
Two years later, another major event occurred in the same Rosa east face was carried out by Fischer et al. (2011)
area. In April 2007, a rock avalanche of about 300,000 m3 through the comparison of high-resolution DTMs, providing
detached at an elevation of 4,000–4,200 m a.s.l., following a quantitative assessment of the topographic changes of the
the same runout-path with about the same spreading area slope over the last 50 years.
(Fig. 1). According to the available temperature records,
April 2007 was the warmest during the last 150 years in
Western Alps. The August 2005 Ice Avalanche
Helicopter-borne and ground-based lidar surveys helped
in calculating the volume of the detachment area and In August 2005 an ice avalanche detached from the Monte
performing a geomechanical characterization of the rock Rosa east face at an elevation between 3,580 and 3,820 m a.
mass by properly processing the laser point cloud, without s.l., involving an ice volume of about 1.1 million m3.
need to access the rock slope. Seismic and meteorological stations next to the area
These events are particularly significant, as occurred in a provided useful data for a more exhaustive interpretation
glacial basin which is under observation since autumn 2001, of the event.
because of a distinctive surge-type phenomenon of the Bel- The event was recorded by the EMSC European Mediter-
vedere Glacier, combined with a generalized instability of ranean Seismological Centre, the Swiss Seismological
the Monte Rosa east face due to rapid deglaciation. Service (SED, Schweizerischer Erdbebendienst) and the
Slope Instabilities in High-Mountain Rock Walls. Recent Events on the Monte Rosa. . . 329
Fig. 2 Thickness map of the

detachment and accumulation
areas of the August 2005 ice
avalanche obtained by subtracting
two subsequent DTMs
Italian Seismological Service (INGV, Istituto Nazionale di August 25th 2005 ice avalanche represents one of the
Geofisica a Vulcanogia). The origin time of the event was major ice fall events documented in the Alps over the past
assumed as the starting phase of the avalanche: 25th of 100 year (Tufnell 1984, http://www.glacierhazards.ch;
August 2005 at 02 h 36 m 54 s (GMT). http://glaciology.ethz.ch/inventar/).
The seismograms were analyzed as tectonic earthquakes
by EMSC and SED and the hypothesis that an earthquake
induced the avalanche was taken into account as a first The April 2007 Rock Avalanche
hypothesis. After a more accurate analysis of the recorded
signals (Mortara and Tamburini 2009) the possibility that a This event is less documented than the previous one, as it
tectonic earthquake triggered the avalanches was excluded was not possible to obtain seismic data and the AWS station
because of the absence of characteristic phases in the was no longer active when the rock avalanche occurred.
seismograms. Nevertheless some pictures taken before, during and after
An automatic weather station was located close to the the event are available. Before the main event, on April 17th
right margin of the accumulation area. A peak of 38.7 m/s 2007, a skier descending along Canalone Marinelli observed
(140 km/h) was recorded by the anemometer between 2 and the deposit of a small ice and rockfall probably detached a
3 a.m. GMT. This peak, which, according to the AWS few days earlier from the same detachment area as the
configuration, represents the highest value recorded within subsequent main event. During the main event, occurred on
the interval between two subsequent acquisitions, was April 21st at about 10 a.m. a sequence of pictures was taken
associated to the blow of the ice avalanche, and confirmed by an observer (Fig. 3); moreover some pictures taken the
the arrival of the ice avalanche in the spreading area. day after the event by an alpine guide (Michele Cucchi from
The overall runout of the landslide was more than 3 km, Alagna Valsesia) descending along Canalone Marinelli were
the extent of the accumulation area, including the avalanche helpful in delimiting the accumulation area with a good
blow, was estimated in about 110 ha. approximation.
Thanks to the availability of multi temporal photogram- The source area is located at an altitude of 4,000–
metric surveys, it was possible to compute the volume of the 4,200 m a.s.l., not far from the detachment area of the
ice avalanche by comparing before and after DTMs. Values August 2005 ice avalanche (Fig. 4).
of 1.1 and 1.4 million m3 were respectively estimated for the This can be considered a quite exceptional event, both for
detachment and the accumulation area. A thickness map was the elevation of the detachment area and the epoch of the
also performed (Fig. 2). According to literature, the year, probably related to the exceptionally high temperatures
Fig. 3 April 2007 rock avalanche (Picture taken during the event)
recorded in April 2007, the warmest recorded in Western Fig. 4 Detail photograph of the Monte Rosa east face (2007, CNR-
Alps over the last 150 years (Mortara and Tamburini 2009). IRPI, Turin) showing the detachment area of the April 2007 rock
An helicopter-borne Lidar survey of the Monte Rosa east avalanche (red polygon)
face was carried out in September 2007 and compared with a
previous aerial lidar survey taken in October 2005. The
a rough estimation of the accumulation volume in about
location of the detachment area was clearly identified and a
300,000 m3, which seem to be consistent with the initial
volume of about 150,000 m3 was estimated (Fischer et al
volume and the entrainment of ice and debris occurred
2011; Mortara and Tamburini 2009).
during the runout.
A ground based lidar survey was carried out in August 2010
on the lower part of the Monte Rosa east face, in order to
extract data regarding the attitude of geological discontinuities
and perform a kinematic slope stability analysis (Goodman Runout Back-Analyses
1989). A stereoplot of the main discontinuities identified after
the lidar point cloud processing is shown in Fig. 5. According A back-analysis of the described events is currently ongoing
to the local orientation of the slope, most probably a planar using DAN3D (McDougall and Hungr 2004), a model based
sliding along set 1, laterally constrained by subvertical set 3 on the “equivalent fluid” approach, as defined by Hungr
occurred. (1995). DAN3D is a dynamic model, controlled by a small
As topographic surveys of the glacier surface were not number of adjustable parameters, which enables a simula-
available, the extent of the accumulation area was estimated tion of the event in terms of flow distance, velocity and
by comparing pictures taken from the top of the east face distribution of deposits. Three grid files, describing the
immediately after the event with aerial pictures taken after initial elevation of the sliding surface, the initial depth of
the August 2005 ice avalanche. Punctual landslide deposit the source failure and the distribution of the different
thickness measurements, taken after the event, enabled rheologies, has to be provided as input to the model.
Slope Instabilities in High-Mountain Rock Walls. Recent Events on the Monte Rosa. . . 331
Deline et al. submitted), a voellmy rheology was used for the

ice and snow covered areas, while a frictional rheology was
used elsewhere. For the frictional rheology a 25 bulk fric-
tion angle was used, while for the Voellmy rheology a
friction coefficient ranging from 0.05 to 0.1 and a turbulence
coefficient ranging from 700 to 1,000 m/s2 were set.
According to the adopted evolutional model, proper ero-
sion rate and a maximum erodible thickness were set, in
order to take into account the entrainment of ice and debris
during the propagation of the rock avalanche.
The best result obtained with the DAN3D simulation of
the April 2007 rock avalanche is presented in Fig. 6. The
maximum runout distance and the thickness of the landslide
deposit are consistent with field observations and
measurements. For what concerning the limit of the accu-
mulation area and the distribution of the deposits the fit
between modelled and observed data is less satisfactory.
This is undoubtedly due to the topographic model used,
which dates back to 2005 and does not correctly represent
the morphology of the accumulation area in such a dynamic
Fig. 5 Stereoplot (Lower hemisphere Schmidt Net Plot) with the great environment. This is particularly evident in the depression
circles of the main discontinuity sets obtained by processing the point once filled by the Effimero supraglacial lake, where major
cloud provided by a terrestrial lidar survey of the lower part of the changes occurred between 2005 and 2007. According to the
Monte Rosa east face
morphological observations and the surface displacement
measurements reported by Mortara and Tamburini (2009),
The first results obtained for the April 2007 rock ava-
the right side of the Belvedere glacier in 2007 was probably
lanche are presented. The approach adopted in obtaining the
more depressed than the left one, once occupied by the
surface model and selecting the most appropriate rheologies
Effimero lake.
are briefly discussed.
A first attempt to obtain a reliable topography of the area
was made by mosaicing and connecting the most updated Conclusions
available data describing the pre-event situation. For what The Monte Rosa east face (Macugnaga, Italian Alps) is
concerning the detachment area, the already mentioned undergoing a rapid evolution due to deglaciation and
results obtained by Fischer et al. (2011) were used. The permafrost degradation. One of the main consequences
main problem is represented by the topography of the glacier is represented by the occurrence of frequent ice- and
surface, which is still rapidly changing after the end of the rockfalls which make the access to the area extremely
surge-type evolution experienced up to the end of 2005 dangerous. Thanks to the availability of data and
(Mortara and Tamburini 2009). The most recent pre-event observations, a back analysis of two major events,
topographic survey is relevant to September 2005, and prob- occurred in August 2005 (ice avalanche) and in April
ably does not correctly represent the pre-event morphology 2007 (rock avalanche) respectively, can be carried out.
of the glacier surface. The first results obtained by modelling the April 2007 rock
Two different rheologies were used, in order to simulate avalanche with DAN3D (McDougall and Hungr 2004) are
the behaviour of the sliding material on the rock slope and on presented. The results are consistent with reality in terms
the snow and ice covered areas. of maximum runout distance and average deposit thick-
In accordance with other comparable case studies (Hungr ness. However some problems were encountered in
and Evans 1996; McDougall et al. 2006; Sosio et al. 2008; modelling the extent of the accumulation area, due to the
Fig. 6 Back analysis of the April 2007 rock avalanche: the runout distance and the average deposit thickness are consistent with the observed
ones, while the spreading area is shifted to the NW, probably due to the lack of an up-to-date DTM of the glacier surface
unavailability of an up-to-date DTM of the glacier sur- Kääb A, Huggel C, Barbero S, Chiarle M, Cordola M, Epifani F, Haeberli W,
face. The rheological parameters assumed for the back Mortara G, Semino P, Tamburini A, Viazzo G (2004) Glacier hazard at
Belvedere Glacier and the Monte Rosa east face, Italian Alps: processes
analysis are within the range proposed by literature on and mitigation. In: Proceedings of the international symposium
similar cases. interpraevent 2001, Riva del Garda, Trento, pp 67–78
McDougall S, Hungr O (2004) A model for the analysis of rapid
References landslide motion across three-dimensional terrain. Can Geotech J
41:1084–1097
McDougall S, Boultbee N, Hungr O, Stead D, Shwab JW (2006)
Deline P, Alberto W, Broccolato M, Hungr O, Noetzli J, Ravanel L, The Zymoetz Rivel landslide, British Columbia, Canada: descrip-
Tamburini A (submitted to NHESS) The December 2008 tion and dynamic analysis of a rock slide-debris flow. Landslides
Crammont rock avalanche, Mont Blanc massif area, Italy 3(3):195–204
Fischer L, Eisenbeiss H, Kääb A, Huggel C, Haeberli W (2011) Moni- Mortara G, Tamburini A, (eds) (2009) Il ghiacciaio del Belvedere
toring topographic changes in a periglacial high-mountain face e l’emergenza del lago Effimero. Ed. Società Meteorologica
using high-resolution DTMs, Monte Rosa East Face, Italian Alps. Subalpina, Castello Borello, Bussoleno. ISBN 978-88-903023-5-0.
Permafrost Periglac Process 22(2):140–152 191p
Goodman RE (1989) Introduction to rock mechanics. Wiley, New York Sosio R, Crosta GB, Hungr O (2008) Complete dynamic model cali-
Haeberli W, Kääb A, Paul F, Chiarle M, Mortara G, Mazza A, Deline P, bration for the Thurwieser rock avalanche (Italian Central Alps).
Richardson S (2002) A surge-type movement at Ghiacciaio del Eng Geol 100:11–26
Belvedere and a developing slope instability in the east face of Tamburini A, Mortara G (2005) The case of the “Effimero” Lake at
Monte Rosa, Macugnaga, Italian Alps. Nor J Geogr 56:104–111 Monte Rosa (Italian Western Alps): studies, field surveys, monitor-
Hungr O (1995) A model for the runout analysis of rapid flow slides, ing. In: Proceedings of the 10th ERB conference, Turin, 13–17
debris flows, and avalanches. Can Geotech J 32:610–623 Oct 2004, UNESCO, IHP-VI Technical Documents in Hydrology,
Hungr O, Evans SG (1996) Rock avalanche runout prediction using a 77, 179–184
dynamic model. In: Senneset K (ed) Proceedings of the 7th interna- Tufnell L (1984) Glacier hazards. Longman, London/New York, 97p
tional symposium on landslides, vol. 1. Trondheim, pp 233–238
New Approach to Rapid Risk Evaluation
in Disasters Related to Landslides-Brazil
Renato Eugenio Lima
Abstract
In the last 3 years Brazil was hit by the most important group of accidents related to
landslides in the history of the country. The biggest accidents affected the States of Santa
Catarina, Rio de Janeiro, Pernambuco, Alagoas and Paraná. We estimated more than
20,000 landslides in these most important disasters and around 2,000 victims dead or
disappeared. The effects of these accidents are enormous and in many cases the community
will be paying the costs for long time. The group of CENACID-UFPR, Federal University
of Paraná, responded to almost all of these accidents and developed a new approach to face
the challenge of fast evaluation of risk in these events. This new approach is proposed as a
tool to rapid and systematic evaluation of groups of landslides, which we call “landslides
systems”. This methodology is called “Relative Rapid Landslides Analysis” and is based in
five different indicators of risk.
Keywords
Rapid risk evaluation of landslides Landslides in Brazil Landslide indicators
systems. All these hazardous geological processes occurred

Introduction associated with rain periods and exceptional storms, nor-
mally in the summer, which resulted in landslides and
The most important natural disasters to Brazil are floods and floods. We estimated more than 20,000 landslides in these
landslides. Time to time the country is affected by these last years disasters and around 2,000 victims dead or
types of events. disappeared.
In the last 3 years Brazil was hit by the most important The effects of these accidents are enormous and in many
group of accidents related to landslides in the history of cases the community will be paying the costs for long time.
the country. The biggest accidents affected the States of These geological processes resulted in thousands of
Santa Catarina (2008), Rio de Janeiro (2010 and 2011), victims, transformed the landscape regionally and provided
Pernambuco and Alagoas (2009) and Paraná (2011). The a significant quantity of disaster waste and debris which are a
states of Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, São Paulo and problem to deal with.
others were also affected by large mass movements The proposed methodology aims to provide a tool to
very rapid risk analysis in disasters related to gravitational
mass movements. Relative Rapid Landslides Analysis
R.E. Lima (*) (RRLA) is planned to be useful in the absence of previous
Center for Scientific Support in Disasters – CENACID, Federal studies and without other geological information, in the
University of Paraná (UFPR), Caixa Postal 19023, Curitiba
CEP-81531-990, Brazil very earlier phase of the disaster response (first 2 or 4
e-mail: [email protected] weeks).

334 R.E. Lima
Table 1 List of selected indicators of risk, risk component, estimation

Materials and Methods of easiness of evaluation and estimation of required experience of the
designed geologist for the study
The study was based in two different approaches. The first Easiness of Experience
Indicator Risk component evaluation required
was to register the disasters in order to facilitate the under-
Phase of Susceptibility Medium High
standing about the types, geographic distribution and fre- dangerous
quency of the events. As a result we have a data bank with all process
this information. Possible Susceptibility High Medium
The second approach was developed as a field activity volume and losses
involved
related to each disaster situation. Considering that the
Velocity and Susceptibility Low Medium
purpose of the CENACID is to offer scientific knowledge distance and losses
to reduce the suffering and the losses of community in Impact probable Losses High Low
disasters situations, a CENACID team was moved to the Aggravation Vulnerability Medium Medium
disaster areas. The objective is to study, to recognize factors and both above
the dangerous geological process or processes and to evalu-
ate the evolution of the mass movements systems and the
Table 2 Significant natural disasters by region in 2010, Brazil
possible effects of this evolution, namely, the risk.
Taking into consideration experiences in successive field Region S SE W N NE
activities analysing susceptibility to landslides at emergency Disasters 23 55 14 14 19
Percentage 18.4 44.0 11.2 11.2 15.2
response and possible effects associated to them, we select
five important indicators of the risk.
To choose the indicators we took into consideration the natural disasters landslides disasters X 10 deaths
following criteria: 1000
significant disasters
• The significance of the indicator 800

• The possibility of fast analysis in the field by experienced 600
geologists. 400
• The absence of necessity for testing or other investigations 200
that could be impossible in the emergency response. 0 year
The selected indicators are considered possible of identi- 2008 2009 2010 july2011*
fication during the disaster situation. The Table 1 shows the
indicators, the component of the risk analyses related, and Fig. 1 Evolution of significant natural disasters, disasters related
exclusively to landslides and deaths related to natural disasters in Brazil
the easiness to be evaluated in the field during disasters. (*preliminary)
Despite the methodology is easy, fast and with no others
requirements to be applied, the results are better if the
geologists are experienced and/or have been trained in it.
Overview of Recent Landslide Disasters
The methodology was tested in 2008, in the State of Santa
in Brazil
Catarina catastrophic landslides and after that was applied in
some other landslides events.
Recent Landslide Disasters
Since 2008 Brazil was hit by a series of accidents related

Disasters Related to Landslides in Brazil with landslides. Most of them were associated with hydro-
logical processes (rain storms and floods). Table 2 indicates
Landslides are a common accident in Brazil and in many the distribution of the more significant accidents in the year
situations caused disasters in different areas of the country. 2010.
In the last years almost all regions were affected and more The number of accidents and victims related to natural
than 20,000 landslides could be registered, most of them disasters in Brazil is growing since 2008 (Fig. 1). Most of the
related to majors disasters. deaths resulted from landslides related accidents. The five
Most of the disasters affected the South, Southeast and more significant disasters related to landslides were located
Northeast of the country (Table 2 and Fig. 1), the most in Santa Catarina, Rio de Janeiro, Paraná, Minas Gerais and
populated areas. The total of deaths in natural disasters is Sao Paulo Sates.
superior to thousands of people and the economic losses are Observing the historical series of natural disasters in
not totally estimated. Brazil (Fig. 1) it is clear that each new year we are having
New Approach to Rapid Risk Evaluation in Disasters Related to Landslides-Brazil 335
The first action is to prepare the team to apply the meth-

odology. It includes to explain the indicators and the format
to be filled in the field. It also includes to prepare the
involved people to protect themselves in a disaster area.
Applying the RRLA Analysis in the Field
In the field each geologist or group of geologists goes to the

area affected by landslides, evaluate each landslide system
(Fig. 2) and provide the relative analysis for the studied area.
Fig. 2 System of landslides at Serra do Mar, Paraná, South of
Brazil (2011) During this phase the responsible will analyse the
characteristics of the rock and soil, the types of mass
movements realized, the occupation of the soil, dangerous
Floods Storms Landslides
100
facilities and others. These observations will be basic for the
RRLA analysis and in this step the previous experience is
number fo events
80
very important.
60 During the evaluation the observer will analyze the five
40 selected indicators: (a) phase of the dangerous process
(based in Chacon 2008); (b) possible volume of the expected
20
mass movement; (c) velocity and distance to be reached; (d)
0
year
probable impact; (e) factors of aggravation.
2008 2009 2010 Each one is estimated from one to five following the
Fig. 3 Comparative evolution of floods, storms and landslides
criteria explained in the form (see Table 3) and based on
associated with significant disasters in Brazil experience, judgment and the observation of the similar
landslides in the system. The sum of these values resulting
in the index of relative landslide risk of the area.
It is a risk mapping and it is important to develop the
more disasters and more deaths. The figures of CENACID
studies searching for a prognosis, not only analyzing the
indicate that floods and rain storms are the most important in
past, but developing a prediction of the geologic process
terms of frequency (Fig. 3), but the group landslides causes
evolution.
the growing number of deaths. Also it is clear that disasters
The last will be to fill in the RRLA format as a result of
related to landslides are growing, and specially the number
the geological analysis in the field.
of deaths related to them is growing faster than the number
of accidents. The catastrophic event in the State of Rio de
Janeiro (January-2011) results in the exceptional growing of
Registering the Results
deaths in the first half of this year.
This information from cenacid database (CENACID
During the field and at the end of day, in the office, the
2011) indicates that landslides are affecting more populated
geologist will register the results in a map. If necessary this
areas and, probably, the human activity is an additional
can be done at the same time in the field, in order to make
controller of these dangerous processes.
possible to initiate with urgent actions for disaster response
All this information supports the necessity of develop-
(evacuations, etc.).
ment and applying of fast and easy methodologies to analyse
The plotted results, as a direct result of the methodology
risk related to landslides in areas affected by major disasters
will present the affected areas in a relative order of priority
as presented.
of risk. This map showing the analysed areas and relative
risk we call “emergency map of geological risk”.
This mapping offers to the disasters managers a tool to
Applying the RRLA Analysis coordinate the capacity for response with the necessities.
The environment of the disaster normally shows the list of
Preparing necessities bigger than the response possibilities.
Actions like evacuation of people, choosing of safety
Normally the group will be prepared to the emergency areas for shelters, priority in clean up of roads can be decided
mapping applying RRLA methodology before the accident. considering the priorities indicated by the RRLA analysis.
336 R.E. Lima
Table 3 RRLA form to classification of emergency risk and prioritize actions for disaster response
Result of
Rank indicator Low (1) Medium (2) Hight (3) Dangerous (5) evaluation
PHASE of the (Advanced or (Preparatory or advanced) (Development) (Beginning or development)
dangerous process finished) or Apparent equilibrium or Indicators of Indicators of movement and
with no very slow motion (mm- moderate motion acceleration, possibility of
perspectives cm/year) (m/year) iminency (m/month or >)
of evolution
VOLUME probable 50 m3 ex. 500 m3 ex. (surface of ~5,000 m3 ex. ~50,000 m3 ex. (surface of
(surface of 10 50 m) (surface of 100 500 m)
10 5 m) 100 50 m)
VELOCITY and Velocity Velocity moderate and Fast and short Fast and long distance
DISTANCE moderate and long distance distance
antecipated if short distance
deflagrated Moderate: Fast: falls and flows Short ¼ up to Long ¼ more than 50 m
landslides 50 m
IMPACT Soil use at Natural Edifications for temporary Low density High density edification, people
the probable affected (woods, etc.) use (roads, walls, etc.) edification for permanency (residential area high
area permanency like density, schools, etc.)
houses, etc.
Aggravation factors Geological or Ex. water in the masses, Maximum ¼ 5 (five)
(to describe) antropic favorable foliations,
overload, fragile building,
etc.
It is important to provide the most correct information for in 40 municipalities partially destroyed and enormous eco-
decision makers like civil defence, mayors, governors and nomic losses. Many municipalities declared “State of Emer-
ministers. Also the community needs to receive the informa- gency” and 14 declared “State of Calamity”. The number of
tion about the immediate risks. registered deaths is 135 and 6 disappeared.
For both it is necessary to make clear that this is an Almost all of the deaths were caused by gravitational mass
emergency evaluation and there will be necessary to provide movements and also the economic losses were related to these
complete studies in the next months. geological process. We estimate more than 10,000 landslides
related processes in this event, including rotational and trans-
lational movements, flows and mixed phenomena.
After the Emergency Phase Most of the landslides affected rural areas, but in other
cases urban areas were strongly impacted, as Blumenau and
When the emergency phase is over it is important to re- region.
analyse the results, including new field activities, detailed
geological mapping, collect of samples and field and labora-
tory tests to provide a definitive risk map. RRLA Application in Santa Catarina
It is also the opportunity to compare the results of RRLA
analysis with the immediate evolution (approximately 3 or 4 CENACID sent three missions to the affected area to support
months) of the geological processes studied. the local authorities with scientific information, especially to
This final review will permit to the team to improve the provide rapid risk analysis (Lima 2010).
capacity to apply the methodology in the next situations. There were more than 40 municipalities affected, proba-
bly 1,000/2,000 landslide systems and a lack of previous
knowledge about landslide risk in the region.
Santa Catarina Disaster – Example of the Use of It was a big challenge to evaluate the risk and offer
RRLA Methodology appropriate information to decision makers in short time as
requested in that situation.
The Disaster To deal with this situation the group of CENACID
applied the RRLA approach and performed many emer-
In November and December 2008 the State of Santa gency maps of geological risk and many others punctual
Catarina in South Brazil was affected by continuous raining evaluations. This rapid risk analysis supported the various
with a peak in November-23. This climatic extreme resulted levels of decision in the following actions:
New Approach to Rapid Risk Evaluation in Disasters Related to Landslides-Brazil 337
Conclusion
In the last 3 years the disasters related to landslides are
growing in number and human and economic losses.
The methodology RRLA (Rapid Risk Landslides
Analysis) was applied and useful in Santa Catarina State
of Brazil where more than 40 municipalities were
affected by probably 1,000/2,000 landslide systems.
The RRLA approach was applied in some other major
disasters situations in Brazil and provided important
information for disaster response.
The essential aspect of the proposed methodology
RRLA is to provide a tool to rapid analysis of danger
situations, with no need of testing, sampling, detailed
mapping, etc.
Fig. 4 RRLA emergency map of geological risk (2008) of Blumenau- The proposed methodology includes the terms
SC, Brazil (red colour hight risk)
favourability to the geological process and the term pos-
• Decision for areas to be evacuated and areas to be moni- sibility of losses, both composing the risk equation.
tored. In this event more than one million people were This methodology can be useful in reducing the depen-
affected by the disaster and it was very difficult to provide dency on individual experience and facilitates the com-
the required information for the entire region affected in parison with others groups working in the same region.
Santa Catarina State.
• Priority for clean up streets and roads to facilitate the Acknowledgments The proposed methodology results of many
evacuation of people from dangerous areas, choosing missions to disaster areas with the group of scientists of the Center
for Scientific Support in Disasters (CENACID). I would like to
the safety routes and considering the communities in acknowledge with gratitude all the CENACID geologists that
highest dangerous situation. participated in these missions. It is also important to thank the Federal
• To evaluate and select appropriate shelter areas to receive University of Paraná and Araucaria Foundation for support this
the dislocated people. initiative.
• To check and authorize the running of important services
and community functions in hill sides not affected by
visible movements. References
CENACID (2011) CENACID. http://www.cenacid.ufpr.br. Accessed
Results of the Study in Santa Catarina 20 July 2011
Chacon J (2008) Los conceptos actuales de susceptibilidad,
peligrosidad y riesgo, en la prevención de movimientos de ladera,
CENACID performed hundreds of specific evaluations
con ejemplos de aplicaciones practicas. In: Proceedings of the
and 12 emergency maps as the example of Fig. 4 for geolog- XLIV Brazilian geological congress, Special Publication – Roteiro
ical risk. de Excursão Técnica. Curitiba-PR, Brazil, 24–31 Oct 2008,
All these evaluations were produced in very short time pp 17–60
Lima RE (2010) Considerações sobre o desastre geoambiental em
and using a common criteria for emergency analysis. The
Santa Catarina 2008. In: Proceedings of the symposium on geo-
approach RRLA was useful to offer a scale of risk and to technical and geoenvironmental cartography, ABGE. Maringa-PR,
permit the production of comparable information within the Brazil, 18–22 Aug 2010, pp 2–10
products of different groups.
Part III
GIS Application and Developments
Introduction by Serafino Angelini1, Esther Jensen2, and Raffaele De Amicis3

1) Litografia Artistica Cartografica S.r.l., Florence, Italy
2) Icelandic Meteorological Office, Reykjavik, Iceland
3) Fondazione Graphitech, Trento, Italy
The L.08 session titled “GIS application development” took place within the Second World
Landslide Forum from Thursday 10th March p.m. and 11th March a.m. It was introduced by a
presentation of the received posters and followed by a series of oral presentations. Session
activities were coordinated by Raffaele De Amicis (Fondazione Graphitech), Esther Hliðar
Jensen (Icelandic Meteorological Office), Serafino Angelini (Litografia Artistica Cartografica,
Florence).
The GIS APPLICATION DEVELOPMENTS session aimed at including research and
development work regarding computerised techniques supporting geographic information so
as to correctly manage and store data, even historical, and consequently identify new data
analysis systems and discuss proposals supporting applied research in these fields.
Fifteen researches have been presented and these entirely fulfilled expectations. Since the
subject was transversal, researches ranged in different fields although aspects related to
geomatic were central. The last aspects seemed to be the main reason for the speaker to
choose this session; after perusal of hundreds of researches presented during the Second World
Landslide Forum it appears that the Geographical Information Systems currently involve
every aspect of slope instability studies as well as geotechnical geology-engineering. It also
appears that many other researches would have had an appropriate place in this session since
there is a number of aspects currently related to geomatic.
Geographical information applied to Earth Sciences and thematic Cartography paves a new
way in the management of events related to slope instability, landslide risks and mass
movements sensu latu both in identifying the causes, reducing the risk and managing the
consequences even in emergency situations through real time analysis and actions of civil
defense.
In this perspective some actions concentrated on criticalities causes and a classification of
the events was drawn to be used in the future for comparison and/or analysis; new techniques
have also been considered for storing data close to applicative reality; other presentations
described a detailed study of these events, based on new models of deterministic type and care
was taken in assessing weather theory corresponded to the real development of the specific
event; other researches focused on the effects that occur on the territory and its anthropic
action when morphological instability occurs.
Some interesting considerations derived from this session; according to the presentations
and related observations it appears that:
– Database implementation concerning landslide hazard improves the assessment of the
consequence of every factor in the slope instability processes and provides a more objective
analysis;
– When planning a dedicated database, the geological and engineering factors must be
considerably taken into consideration since these make the theoretical models more
complicated;
340 Part III GIS Application and Developments
– The majority of slope instability phenomena are in constant development and continuously
modify the surrounding conditions: the assessment of new scenarios is essential when
modifications occur;
– Choice of the model type and of the appropriate sliding surface is an essential aspect in
every risk analysis; assessment of local conditions must be necessarily a priority followed
by the approach type,
– When assessing the risk, morphodynamical features of a landslide or of a debris flow are
extremely important (e.g. expected distance of debris propagation, mass movement speed
and depositional area);
– All efforts must be made so as to compile base geological cartography – which is
increasingly accurate and reliable – for identifying potential areas of risk: this cartography
is still considered the best tool for a specific analysis;
– The use of LiDAR technology for producing high resolution DEM and the importance of
these supports enable to remarkably accelerate a detailed field survey without influencing
data quality;
– The frequency analysis of landslide phenomena on a regional or national scale through the
Land Information Systems is an essential tool for funds allocation aimed at prevention and
mitigation actions.
Different Approaches of Rockfall Susceptibility
Maps in Lower Austria
Herwig Proske, Christian Bauer, and Klaus Granica
Abstract
Within the frame of the ongoing project MoNOE (Development of Methods for Modelling
Natural Hazards in the Province of Lower Austria) the generation of an indicative multi-
hazard map to be used as a scientific reference for regional policies of land use management
is one of the main objectives. The applicability and reliability of two relatively simple
GIS-based approaches have been analysed aiming at the identification of areas which are
potentially endangered by rockfall in a fast and cost-effective manner.
Keywords
Rockfall LiDAR data Source zone Runout zone modelling
in many parts of Lower Austria affecting railways, roads and

Introduction residential areas and resulting in complex and expensive
remedial actions.
Rockfall hazard zoning for land-use planning is a complex
problem, because of the different parameters involved: block
size, energy, frequency, characteristics of the vegetation and
(micro)topography, uncertainty of all parameters, etc. Rock- Study Area
fall hazard zoning is mostly performed using a relative
hazard scale (Van Westen 2004), which does not explicitly The study area in Lower Austria covers approx. 10,200 km
take into account the temporal aspect. and is located in the east of Austria (Fig. 1). The area is
With regard to rockfall susceptibility mapping two main situated at the northern rim of the Alps with peaks reaching
aspects have to be taken into account, namely the identifica- approx. 1,900 m asl in the southernmost part.
tion of potential source zones on the one hand and the The geology is characterized by the alpine orogenesis wih
estimation of the propagation zones on the other hand. tectonic units running in west – eastern direction. The Alps
Major rockfall events in the past few years were registered are represented by the Northern Calcareous Alps (mainly
different carbonates with intercalated clastic sediments), and
the Flysch Zone (mainly flyschoid clastic sediments). The
clastic sediments of the Molasse Zone, partly overthrusted
by alpine units, are building the northern foothills of the
H. Proske (*) C. Bauer K. Granica
Alps. North of the river Danube (and in some parts as well
Joanneum Research, Institute for Information and Communication
Technologies, Steyrergasse 17, Graz, Austria cut by the river) the rocks of the Variscan Bohemian massiv
e-mail: [email protected] are forming the crystalline basement (mainly granites

342 H. Proske et al.
tectonic situation (large faults and boundaries of nappes)

were taken into account as well. The defined threshold
slope angles cover values from 39 in intensely tectonized
carbonates up to 48 in massive granites of the Bohemian
massive. The area wide modelling resulted in a total of
approx. 8.3 km of potential rockfall source areas (0.08 %
of the test area), most of it situated in the Calcareous Alps.
Characterisation of Propagation Zones

Fig. 1 The study area in the eastern part of Austria covering most of
Assessment of the runout zones from the potential release
the province of Lower Austria
areas was performed by means of two relatively simple GIS-
based approaches, namely the CONEFALL software
and gneiss). Zones of intense tectonics and high relief
(Jaboyedoff 2003) and the SAGA module Rock HazardZone
energies due to the deeply incised drainage network favour
(Wichmann 2006).
different types of mass movements like landslides, debris
flows and rockfalls.
With respect to landcover and landuse the alpine part is
CONEFALL Method
mainly covered by forests. In the valley bottoms agricultural
land (pastures, grassland) and small settlements can be found
Maximum rockfall runout zones can be estimated empirically
whereas alpine pastures and rocky areas dominate the higher
following the cone method (Fahrböschung) (Toppe 1987).
parts of the mountains. The larger settlements within the test
This model is based on the idea that an individual falling
area are situated in the foothills of the Alps and the flood-
rock can reach any place in the area situated inside a cone
plain of the river Danube. The Bohemian massiv is mainly
of given aperture. The CONEFALL method (Jaboyedoff
covered by forests and grassland.
2003) implements the cone method in a GIS environment.
It allows the computation of the run-out areas, the number of
contributing source pixels, the velocities and kinetic energies.
Data Base A lateral limitation of the cones is implemented.
The geographical and geological data base was provided by

the Geological Survey and the Department of Spatial Rock HazardZone Method
Planning and Regional Policy of the federal state govern-
ment of Lower Austria. The SAGA module Rock HazardZone (Wichmann 2006)
Relevant data include digital geological maps in scales takes into account the local relief to calculate the magnitude
1:200,000 and 1:50,000, colour aerial fotos (orthofotos), a of divergence yielding more realistic results. The mfdf (mul-
satellite-based land cover classification, LiDAR data and a tiple flow directions for debris flows, Gamma (2000)) method
mass movement inventory. Especially the analysis of the is used to calculate potential pathways. The method is
available high resolution DTM (1 1 m) proved to be of implemented as a random walk in conjunction with a Monte
highest potential for the rockfall analysis. Carlo approach and allows for calibrating the amount of
modelled divergence by three parameters: (a) a slope thresh-
old, above which no divergence is modelled (i.e. single-flow
Definition of Potential Source Zones direction, D8). In case the maximum gradient is lower than
the slope threshold, the gradients to all lower neighbouring
As most of the minor rockfall events are not registered in cells are divided by the threshold to obtain relative slope
the mass movement inventory, statistical approaches for the gradients. Together with (b) a parameter that controls the
identification of source areas are leading nowhere. Therefore magnitude of divergence, this ratio is then used as a criterion
an empirical approach was selected benefitting a lot from the whether a neighbouring cell exhibits a sufficiently high gra-
available 1 m-LiDAR-DTM (Fig. 2). Threshold slope values dient to be selected as potential pathway. The transition
for potential rockfall release areas were attributed to differ- probabilities of all neighbouring cells that meet the criterion
ent lithological units according to field observations and the are calculated proportional to the sum of their relative slope
interpretation of Remote Sensing Data (Orthofotos). Mor- gradients; (c) a persistence factor that allows to increase the
phometric parameters (e.g. profile curvature) and the specific probability of that neighbouring cell, which features the same
Different Approaches of Rockfall Susceptibility Maps in Lower Austria 343
Fig. 2 Rockfall source zones in a forested area in the southern part of based on the 1 m LiDAR DTM. The same parameters and slope
the study area: the left image displays source zones based on a 10 m threshold values were used for both maps. The hillshade background
Digital Terrain Model (DTM), the right image shows source zones is based on the 1 m LiDAR DTM in both images
Fig. 3 Identification of tree tops by means of automatic single tree Fig. 4 Surface roughness in a rockfall prone area in the southern part
detection from LiDAR DSM data overlaid on Vegetation Height Model of the study area based on local variability of vector orientations of
(dark areas representing low vegetation, bright areas representing high LiDAR DTM data (window size 5 5 cells, spatial resolution 1 m)
vegetation)
direction like the centre cell was entered (Wichmann and Surface roughness is calculated by measuring the vari-
Becht 2006). ability in slope and aspect in local patches of the LiDAR
The process-based calculation of the runout distance Digital Terrain Model (DTM, see Fig. 4). In this approach,
permits the input of a friction coefficient which depends unit vectors are constructed perpendicular to each cell in the
on surface cover characteristics, i.e. material properties, DTM. The vectors are defined in three dimensions using polar
micromorphology and obstacles (vegetation) on the slope. coordinates by their direction cosines. Local variability of
This model therefore allows for the high potential of the vector orientations is then evaluated statistically (McKean
LiDAR data. and Roering 2004). Different window sizes (3 3 to 9
Forest parameters include vegetation height as well as 9 pixels) and different DTM resolutions were applied to
density of vegetation by means of automatic single tree obtain optimum results as compared to field verifications.
detection from LiDAR Digital Surface Model (DSM, see Based on these inputs a friction map was compiled
Fig. 3). displaying five classes of friction.
344 H. Proske et al.
Fig. 5 Modelling of rockfall runout zones by means of the empirical eastern part of the study area without considering effects of vegetation
CONEFALL method (left image) and the process-based SAGA Rock and surface roughness (transparaent areas: no hazard; 1 hazard not to
HazardZone method (right image) in a partly forested area in the be excluded; 2 hazard to be expected; 3 high hazard to be expected)
The selected modelling method is following the “rockfall

Rockfall Runout Zones velocity” – method (Scheidegger 1975). With regard to the
random walk parameters the number of iterations is set to
CONEFALL Modelling Results 1,000, the slope threshold is 40 , the exponent controlling
the magnitude of lateral divergence is 2 and the persistence
The CONEFALL model is applied to each potential rockfall factor is 1. The same block masses as for the CONEFALL
source zone defined previously in order to assess the maxi- approach are used.
mum runout length. The source zones are aggregated to a Examples of the Rock HazardZone Modelling are
cell size of 5 5 m. presented in Figs. 5 and 6. The classification of the process
Aperture angle of the cones is defined empirically by area is adapted to the range of the CONEFALL approach
taking into account information from literature (Toppe with subdivision in three qualitative classes according to the
1987; Meißl 1998), orthophoto analyses and fieldwork number of stops. Whereas Fig. 5 displays the modelling
results. Considering the results of several test runs, finally result without taking into account any influences of obstacles
a value of 35 was selected for all tectonic units. and surface roughness, Fig. 6 shows the same area under
To obtain not only a grid of the potential propagation area consideration of the classified friction map. As most of the
but also a rough image of the rock-fall transit density the process area is covered by forest considerable differences
“Count of contributing source points” – option is activated. between the two maps can be detected. As well the influence
As well the energies are estimated. The mean block masses of forest gaps can be visualized clearly (Fig. 6).
of typical lithological units were classified according to field
observations. Conclusions
An example of the CONEFALL Modelling is presented The presented GIS-based methods describe a straightfor-
in Fig. 5. The process area is subdivided in three qualitative ward and generally applicable approach to develop rock-
classes according to the estimated kinetic energy. fall susceptibility maps which can be used as indicative
hazard maps. The combined use of the two applied
methods provide a relatively fast and cost-effective way
SAGA Rock HazardZone Modelling Results to overview rockfall prone zones over large areas at a
regional scale. Field verifications in selected regions
The SAGA module Rock HazardZone is applied only in indicated that in most cases the results provided suffi-
selected areas where the number of exposed objects (houses, cient degree of accuracy. Further investigations and
infrastructure) is high. The input file of the rockfall more detailed modelling have to be accomplished in the
source zones is the same as for the CONEFALL approach. identified high hazard zones. Compared to previous
Different Approaches of Rockfall Susceptibility Maps in Lower Austria 345
Fig. 6 Modelling of rockfall runout zones by means of the process- hazard; 1 hazard not to be excluded; 2 hazard to be expected; 3 high
based SAGA Rock HazardZone method (right image) in a partly hazard to be expected). The left image displays the LiDAR based
forested area in the eastern part of the study area under consideration vegetation height model clearly showing the consequences of vegeta-
of effects of vegetation and surface roughness (transparent areas: no tion gaps with regard to the rockfall runout zones
works the results improved significantly using the Jaboyedoff M (2003) CONEFALL 1.0: a program to estimate propaga-
LiDAR data. However additional efforts have to be tion zones of rockfall based on cone method. Quanterra. www.
quanterra.ch. Accessed 15 May 2011
made with regard to the generation of more detailed McKean J, Roering J (2004) Objective landslide detection and surface
and reliable geological base maps for the identification morphology mapping using high-resolution airborne laser altimetry.
of potential source areas. This work step has to be Geomorphology 57:331–351
attached high importance to, as the whole propagation Meißl G (1998) Modellierung der Reichweite von Felsstürzen.
Innsbrucker Geographische Studien 28:249p
modelling procedure is based on the results of the source Scheidegger AE (1975) Physical aspects of natural catastrophes.
area identification. Elsevier Scientific, Amsterdam, 289p
The protective functions of forests can be demon- Toppe R (1987) Terrain models – a tool for natural hazard mapping. In:
strated by taking into account different forest scenarios, Salm B, Gubler H (eds) Avalanche formation, movement and
effects, vol 162, IAHS Publication. IAHS, Wallingford, pp 629–638
e.g. reduced forest cover in rockfall prone areas. Van Westen CJ (2004) Geo-information tools for landslide risk assess-
ment: an overview of recent developments. In: Lacerda WA,
Ehrlich M, Fontoura AB, Sayo A (eds) Landslides evaluation and
stabilization. Balkema, Leiden, pp 39–56
Acknowledgments The project MoNOE is funded by the Geological Wichmann V (2006) Modellierung geomorphologischer Prozesse in
Survey and the Department of Spatial Planning and Regional Policy of einem alpinen Einzugsgebiet – Abgrenzung und Klassifizierung
the federal state government of Lower Austria. der Wirkungsräume von Sturzprozessen und Muren mit einem
GIS. Eichstätter Geographische Arbeiten, 15. Profil Verlag,
München/Wien, 231p
Wichmann V, Becht M (2006) Rockfall modelling: methods and model
References application in an alpine basin (Reintal, Germany). In: Böhner J,
McCloy KR, Strobl J (eds) SAGA – analysis and modelling
Gamma P (2000) dfwalk – Ein Murgang-Simulationsprogramm zur applications, vol 115, Göttinger Geographische Abhandlungen.
Gefahrenzonierung. Geographica Bernensia G66, 144p Goltze, Göttingen, pp 105–116
Mathematical and GIS-Modeling of Landslides
in Kharkiv Region of Ukraine
Oleksandr Trofymchuk, Yuriy Kalyukh, and Hanna Hlebchuk
Abstract
In view of the acute need to solve a problem related to a landslide hazard at local and regional
levels, the system-based tool, which integrates a mathematical modeling and GIS
technologies, has been developed. A mathematical model of landslide process was devel-
oped based on the theoretical grounds of statics of granular medium and the most frequently
used calculation methods of slope stability coefficient by Maslov-Berer and Shakhunyants
and value of landslide pressure by Shakhunyants. Presented model underlies design of
software for modeling slopes stress condition given engineering-geological changes (LAND-
SLIP07). This software is used for analysis of landslide processes. These research activities
have been carried out in the framework of the Institute of Telecommunications and Global
Information Space of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, and the IPL-153 Project
“Landslide hazard zonation in Kharkov region of Ukraine using GIS”.
Keywords
Landslide Landslide slope Mathematical model Stability coefficient Groundwater
level Software LANDSLIP07
• Rise in groundwater levels;

Urgency of the Problem • Seismic activity, which isn’t typical for certain areas.
Based on data analysis of the regional groundwater
Given the conserved tendency of landslide phenomena acti- regime in Kharkov region during the 2009 year it can be
vation due to increasing technogenic burden and global stated that positions of groundwater level, evaluated in the
natural changes in an environment, forecasting and preven- coefficients of relative position, are near to mark (0.4–0.6),
tion of dangerous strain processes are the priority state-level exceeding the average long-term amplitude by 10–30 %.
problems. Finally all of these factors render active (in certain cases
It should be mentioned that change of climate conditions, render overactive) strain processes in soil, accompanied by
strongly marked lately, is accompanied by: displaying of karst, landslide and other phenomena.
• Increase in temperature values and their substantial In the area of Ukraine there are over 23 thousand of
surges over a day (up to 10 units); landslides, and 1,615 units are located in Kharkiv region.
• Increase in precipitation; The landslide affected area is estimated to be 40.3 km2 in
• Rise in natural disasters (floods and hurricanes); Kharkiv region, constituting 0.13 % of total. Sixty-seven
landslides are located in the built-up area, posing a serious
menace for six economic units. Kochetok dam, being a
O. Trofymchuk (*) Y. Kalyukh H. Hlebchuk strategic object, is also under the threat of destruction. The
Institute of Telecommunications and Global Information Space,
number of landslides will vary constantly due to liquidation
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 13, Chokolivsky Blvd.,
Kyiv 03186, Ukraine or joining up certain landslide forms and occurrence of
e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] new ones.

348 O. Trofymchuk et al.
The displaying of landslides in slopes with slope angle Complex mathematical models in mechanics of
equal to 5º was registered in Kupiansk district of Kharkiv deformed medium have been developed by such authors as
region. One of these landslides is situated near the cemetery. I. I. Lyashko, V. S. Deyneka, I. V. Sergienko, O. P. Vlasiuk
This indicates the geo-mechanical degradation of losses as a and others.
result of global climate changes. The parts of landslide sites The principal methods of landslide hazard determina-
in Kupiansk district are presented at the photos below. tion are the methods of slope stability assessment. The
Solving the problems concerning landslide hazard, modi- methods of landslide hazard calculation have been devel-
fication and specialization of existing calculation methods, oped by such authors as N. M. Gersevanov, N. N. Maslov
designing of effective software are essential for making a (1949), G. M. Shakhunyants (1953), L. K. Ginzburg (1979),
decision about using ground areas with complex relief and M. N. Golshtein, O. I. Bileush, M. G. Demchishyn.
hydrological conditions. The main goal of the article is to develop a tool for the
landslide hazard forecasting at regional and local levels on
the basis of system integration of mathematical modeling
and GIS technologies.
Main Part
Meteorological, hydrological and seismic conditions are

the fundamental natural driving forces for occurrence and
activation of landslides.
The first Project stage included collection of input data
including geographical coordinates of a relief, hydrographical
network, settlements, road network, seismic zoning of the
territory of Kharkov region. Meteorological data for 20 years
from meteorological stations of Kharkov region, data on
physical-mechanical properties of soils and data on landslide
sites were also collected and processed.
These data were obtained with the assistance of the
following Ukrainian institutions:
– The Institute of Geological Sciences of National Academy
of Sciences of Ukraine;
– The Ukrainian State Leading Research and Industrial
Institute of Engineering, Technical and Ecological
Researches;
– The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute.
The information obtained was systematized and used
subsequently when creating and filling a database.
The database has been developed. It includes three main
components:
• The first component contains full information on
descriptors (passports) of landslide sites;
• The second component contains short-form information
on 52 descriptors (passports) of landslide sites;
• The third component contains information on monthly
precipitation data from meteorological stations of
Kharkov region for 20 years.
The map of distribution of landslides in Kharkiv region is
presented bellow (see Fig. 1).
Data on the relief, hydrographic and road networks,
settlements, landslide sites, seismic zoning of the territory
of Kharkov region have been analyzed, systematized and
presented in the form of layers in the developed GIS.
Mathematical and GIS-Modeling of Landslides in Kharkiv Region of Ukraine 349
Fig. 1 Map showing distribution

of landslides in Kharkiv region
Legend
N Landslides
Landslides sites (passports)
Administrative districts
25 12,5 0 25 Kilometers
Rivers
When analyzing the landslide hazard of a slope, methods

of mathematical modelling have been used. These methods y
were based on estimates of coefficient of slopes stability and
landslide pressure.
The Maslov-Berer and Shakhunyants calculation methods σy(z, y)
underlie the developed mathematical model, on which soft- τ zy(z, y)
ware LANDSLIP07 is based on. They used limit stress state σz(z)
z
analysis of granular medium in case of plane problem. It can
be presented graphically (see Fig. 2). Fig. 2 Limit equillibrium method, plane problem
In general cases the equilibrium equations for linear-
strain bodies in stress state can be presented as following:
@sy @tyz @sz @tyz

þ ¼ 0; þ ¼g (1) Constants: c – specific cohesion,
@y @z @z @y
j – angle of internal friction;
g – soil unit weight.
There are three unknowns in two equations, that is the prob-
Boundary conditions:
lem is statically indeterminate. Adding the condition of limit
equilibrium to above equations, we get closed system of three
z ¼ 0; sz ð0; yÞ ¼ 0; sy ðo; yÞ ¼ 0:
equations for three unknowns, so the problem becomes
statically determinate.
The solution of this system of differential equations was
presented by V. V. Sokolovskij (1942).
ðsz sy Þ2 þ 4t2yz However, in this case an isotropic slope is considered.
¼ sin2 ’ (2)
ðsz þ sy þ 2c ctg’Þ2 Generally, landslide slopes are anisotropic, possess a
depression curve and sliding surface. Thus, it was decided
to apply the Maslov-Berer and Shakhunyants methods,
Unknowns: sy, sz – normal stresses, based on calculation of stability coefficient and landslide
tyz – tangential stresses. pressure (see Fig. 3).
N'
ψp
P N
a
1 2 E R
3 i
O
Depressed surface a
bi
wi
Surface of sliding
ypi a
ai
N2
Pi
Ni'
Ri Ei
Hi
Fig. 3 Maslov-Berer method
Maslov-Berer Method X
n
Els ¼ ½ðKst3 1ÞPi tgai þ Pi tgðai cpi Þ (8)
i¼1
N – reaction force on the sliding surface provided j ¼ 0,
c ¼ 0; However, apart from the physical-mechanical character-
N’ – reaction force (P – weight) provided j 6¼ 0, c 6¼ 0; istic, the impact of groundwater, saturated soils, seismic
j – angle of internal friction; forces and weight of building structures were also taken in
cp – angle of shearing resistance; consideration.
H – pressure on a vertical wall below located cell provided According to these complement:
f ¼ 0, c ¼ 0; • Maslov-Berer formulae:
R – pressure on a vertical wall provided j 6¼ 0, c 6¼ 0; – Subject to seismic forces:
E – active pressure.
P
Pi ½tgai tgðai cpi Þ
Kst ¼ P (9)
9 ðPi tgai þ Qci Þ
H ¼ P tga >
= X
E ¼ P tg a cp (3) Els ¼ Kst3 1 Pi tgai þ Kst3 Qci þ Pi tg ai cpi
>
;
R ¼ H E ¼ P tga tg a cp (10)
tn ¼ sn tg’ þ c ¼ sn ðtg’ þ c=sn Þ ¼ sn Fp (4) Qc ¼ mc P (11)
Fp ¼ tg’ þ c=sn (5) where mc – seismic coefficient; P – average soil weight of

landslide block.
Pi cos ai
sni ¼ (6)
li – Subject to seepage force:
P P P
Ri Pi ½tgai tgðai cpi Þ Pi ½tgai tgðai cpi Þ
Kst ¼ P ¼ P (7) Kst ¼ P (12)
ðHi Þ Pi tgai ðPi tgai þ Qci þ ji cos bFi Þ
Mathematical and GIS-Modeling of Landslides in Kharkiv Region of Ukraine 351
" 3 # Summary of calculation results on the slopes stability is

X Kst 1 Pi tgai þ Kst3 ji cos bFi þ
Els ¼ (13) presented in Table 1.
þ Kst3 Qci þ Pi tg ai cpi
Conclusions
ji ¼ go oi sin bFi ; (14) Conclusions and recommendations concerning building

up of landslide-prone slope:
where oі – cross-section area of the groundwater stream 1. Implementation of the targeted GIS, which contains a
in i-cell; go – water volume weight; sin bFi ¼ ii – gradient number of important layers, makes it possible to assess
(head loss per unit length of water flow). impact of the above-mentioned factors on a process of
landslide formation. It assists local authorities in making
• Shakhunyants formulae:
effective decisions on prevention of landslides.
– Subject to seismic forces:
2. Engineering-geological conditions are estimated as
complicated. There are complicative factors, which
Xn
ðPi cos ai tg’i þ ci li Þ cos ’i should be taken into account when designing, namely
cosðai ’i Þ the presence of:
Kst ¼ i¼1X (15)
n
ðPi sin ai þ Qci Þ cos ’ i – Sizeable inclination of natural relief and steep slopes;
i¼1
cosðai ’i Þ – Thickness of banked earth of engineering-geological
elements EGE 1 of non-uniform depth, non-
X
n
cos ’i
homogeneous structure and loose texture (EGE 1
Els ¼ ½Kst3 ðPi sin ai þ Qci Þ ðPi cosai tg’i þ ci li Þ labels banked earth, namely earth deposits of humus
i¼1
cosðai ’i Þ
loam with inclusion of construction waste up to 20 %
(16)
and with 0.5 8.0 m in depth);
– Sedimentary soils EGE 2(EGE 2 are yellow-brown
– Subject to seepage force:
semisolid sedimentary loam with 0.5 4.1 m in
depth).
Xn
ðPBi cos ai tg’Bi þ cBi lBi Þ cos ’Bi 3. In the present state total slope stability is guaranteed
cosðai ’Bi Þ (Kst ¼ 1.33 > 1.25). The evolution of landslide process
Kst ¼ i¼1X (17)
n
ðPBi sin ai þ Qci þ ji Þ cos ’ Bi with depth of capture up to 10 m is possible when
cosðai ’Bi Þ watering the soils (Kst < 1.0).
i¼1
4. Local stability of the slope assembled from banked earth
X
n
cos’Bi is not ensured (Kst < 1.0).
Els ¼ ½Kst3 ðPBi sin ai þ Qci þ ji Þ ðPBi cos ai tg’Bi þ cBi li Þ 5. When executing the construction project, slope stability
i¼1
cosðai ’Bi Þ
coefficients exceeds normative values Kst ¼ 1.86 and
Software LANDSLIP07 was developed according to Kst ¼ 1.91 for different sliding surfaces.
models mentioned above. It helps to automate the process of 6. Local stability of deepened parking (from Frontova St)
calculation of stability coefficient and landslide pressure with is reduced (Kst < 1.0) in the case of watering the soils. It
further construction of landslide pressure diagram. This soft- will result in increase of pressure on building units.
ware completely satisfies the requirements of designers and Recommendations for taking precautions:
surveyors and it is easy to use (Trofymchuk et al. 2008a, b, c). – Construction of intercepting channel (storm water
By means of software LANDSLIP07 the assessment of sewer) along Frontova St;
local and overall slope stability was carried out for apart- – Draining of bedding layer.
ment construction project in Kharkiv (Frontova St, 3). 7. It is recommended to use maximum values of landslide
The assessment of overall slope stability carried out along pressure Els, when calculating retaining constructions
permissible sliding surface with minimal values of stability for foundation pit walls (for the construction period).
coefficient. Local slope stability was estimated along base of They cab be computed for the most deepened part of
banked earth. foundation pit by the help of software LANDSLIP07.
Calculations were carried out for two profiles. 8. Foundations of buildings can be realized as plate, driven
Shakhunyants method was applied (see Fig. 4). Slope stability or bored piles.
was assessed according following schemes: under the assump- 9. Planned partial backfilling of gully can be permitted only
tion of natural water saturated slope, total saturated slope, in after arranging storm and melt water outfall and drain.
the presence of building and total saturation of a slope. For all The drain is required for drawing off infiltration water
sliding surfaces of every scheme calculation diagram and and water falling into the space around pipes because of
landslide pressure diagram are presented. micro suffosion processes near the building site.
a
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65
b
81.06
648.49
1215.91
1783.33
2350.76
2918.18
3485.61
4053.03
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66
Fig. 4 Sliding surface: (a) landslide calculation diagram with landslide array on a vertical line (). (b) Landslide pressure diagram
modeling of buildings as tightening weights in the case of total water corresponding to initial slope geometry. A horizontal axis is an extent
saturation of soils, LANDSLIP07-assisted. A horizontal axis is an of landslide array in a plan (). A vertical axis is a landslide pressure
extent of landslide array in a plan (). A vertical axis is a depth of (104 N)
Table 1 Summary of calculation results on the slopes stability

Stability coefficient, Kst
Initial slope shape With weight of projected building and total saturation of
No of calculation Sliding Natural saturated Total saturated a slope
profile surface slope slope
I -I Г0 4.01 1.86 3.07
В0 2.86 1.33 –
Б1 2.22 1.18 –
Б0 2.06 0.96 –
А2 0.80 0.32 –
10. Planning work should be carried out by means of layer- Maslov NN (1949) Soil mechanics. Publisher of Ministry of construc-
by-layer rolling of soils. It prevents from rain and melt tion of mechanical engineering enterprises, Moscow, 328p, in
Russian
water infiltration, evolution of erosive processes and Shakhunyants GM (1953) Roadbed of railways. Tranzheldorizdat,
nonuniform self-packing of banked earth. Moscow, 827p, in Russian
Sokolovsky VV (1942) Statics of loose medium. Academizdat,
Moscow, 460p, in Russian
Acknowledgments The authors would like to thanks the Ukrainian
Trofymchuk OM, Hlebchuk HS, Kalyukh YuI (2008a) Mathematical
State Leading Research and Industrial Institute of Engineering, Tech-
modeling of change of stressed-deformed condition of landslide
nical and Ecological Researches; Institute of Geological Sciences of
mass in presence of building and developing a foundation pit
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
under conditions of underflooding. Building constructions No 71.
pp 95–104, in Russian
Trofymchuk OM, Hlebchuk HS, Polevetsky VV (2008b) On stability of
slopes under changes of seismic conditions. Building constructions
References No 69, pp 304–311, in Russian
Trofymchuk OM, Kalyukh YuI, Hlebchuk HS (2008c) Mathematical
Ginzburg LK (1979) Landslide-protective and retention constructions. modeling of landslide slope stability under rising the underground
Stroyizdat, Moscow, 80p, in Russian waters’ level. Ecology and Resources No 18, pp 51–58, in Russian
Evaluation and Zonation of Landslide Hazard
of Northern Tehran District
Ali Uromeihy and Mahsa Sharif
Abstract
Tehran is the country’s most densely populated district which is located on the southern part
of Alborz Mountains. Many sensitive infrastructures such as dams, roads, power lines and
housing complexes are located within the area. In this paper the potential of landslide hazard
for North Tehran is evaluated and a hazard zonation map based on ARC-GIS method is
prepared. Several parameters such as lithology, slope angle, slope direction, distance from
faults and seismicity (earthquake deduced acceleration) are considered as main factors. The
quality parameters of the defined effecting factors are quantified by the above named
software where the data layers are divided into smaller classes. In the next stage, specific
weights are assigned to each class and the hazard potential values are determined. Finally
they are presented as a landslide hazard zonation map of the area. It was found that slope
angle of 16–35 , slope direction from 40 to 140 , lithology of tuffacious rocks, distance of
fewer 2 km from fault and seismicity of over 0.5 g has great effect on the distribution of
landslide in the area.
Keywords
Landslide evaluation Landslide hazard zonation mapping
Introduction in planning the expansion of urban settlements in hilly and

mountainous terrain of north Tehran districts.
The fast rate of development of Tehran City, involve the Figure 1 shows the expansion of Tehran City towards the
build-up of housing complex, highways and other infrastruc- foothills of Alborz Mountains and Fig. 2 shows an example of
tural construction on the foothills of Alborz Mountains and road construction within the mountainous terrain in north
through it leading to increased incidences of hill slope insta- Tehran districts. The high relief of mountain front is the result
bility. So there is a requirement for a landslide hazard evalu- of tectonic activities which are represented by many east–west
ation technique to be adopted in the planning stage to avoid oriented thrust faults. The faults usually are surrounded by
major problem related to slope instability. In this paper zones of crushed and weak rocks and alluvium deposits.
Landslide Zonation Mapping based on ARC-GIS method is An early guideline for landslide hazard zonation was intro-
implemented as a hazard evaluation technique for application duce by Varnes (1984), LHZ mapping based on slope facet
then reviewed many techniques for multi-scale study for
landslide hazard evaluation. Some more recent works in this
A. Uromeihy (*) regard have been done for example; by Ramakrishnan et al.
Deptartment of Engineering Geology, Tarbiat Modares University, (2002), Anbalagan et al. (2008), Gahgah et al. (2009). In Iran
Tehran, 14115–175 Iran
local studies regarding landslide zonation were performed by
many researchers, for example: Uromeihy and Mahdavifar
M. Sharif
Northern Tehran Unit, Department of Geology, Islamic Azad
(2000), Ghafoori et al. (2006) and Uromeihy and Fattahi
University, Tehran, Iran (2011).

354 A. Uromeihy and M. Sharif
Unit 3: Comprises sequences of pyroclastic and volcano-

clastic (tuffacious) rocks with several intrusive igneous
rocks (Karaj Formation, Eocene). This unit has widest
outcrops in the region and covers over 45 % of the land
surface area. An example of road cut in this unit is
shown on Fig. 3. Rocks younger than Eocene are mainly
confined to basic intrusive.
Unit 4: Consists of Quaternary deposits of coarse-grained
alluvium deposited by frequent flow of floods and rivers in
several alluvial fans and flood plains at the foot hills of
Alborz Mountains. The alluvium deposits, regarding their
age of deposition, are divided into four zones: A, B, C and D
(Rieben 1966). Further studies on Tehran deposits and its
seismic history were accomplished by Berberian et al.
(1985). The cementation of the alluvium is generally poor
Fig. 1 Expansion of Tehran city towards Alborz Mountains
but some carbonate materials can be identified as secondary
cementation in older deposits (Asghari et al. 2004).
The structural elements of Tehran districts are mainly
includes a number of revearse and thrust faults. The two
main distinguished faults are identified as North Tehran
Fault in the north and Kahrizak Fault in the south. Due to
the expantion of the Tehran City towards the north, large
area of housing and and other development of lifelines
project are extended along the location of this fault and the
related shear zones. A detailed evaluation of seismic hazard
map of Tehran is described by Takada et al. (2004).
Region Data Elevation
Fig. 2 An example of local road in Alborz Mountains Digital elevation model (DEM) is a three dimensional repre-
sentation of a terrian’s surface created from elevation data.
A digital elevation model (DEM) of the study area is shown
Tehran General Geology on Fig. 4. The DEM map was built on the base of datasets
of aerial photographs using remote sensing techniques in the
North region of Tehran is part of Alborz Mountains and form of a raster model with a grid of squares of 50 m in
consists of a series of stratigraphic units. The units are dimension. The DEM maps have a wide range applications
classified, according to the age of deposition, into four in earth science studies including landslide hazard map
groups as follows: evaluation. In this paper, the DEM map is used as a base
Unit 1: Consist of a sequence of sedimentary rocks dated map to plot the locations of landslides and to plot the
from Pre-Cambrian to mid Triassic which includes sev- information layers related to the landslide’s inflouencing
eral geologic Formations and many unconformities factors.
indicating land-forming movements.
Unit 2: Contains a series of coal bearing shale and sandstone
(Shemshak Formation, mid Jurassic), Marine Carbonate Landslide Influencing Factors
rocks (Dalichie and Lar Formations, mid and upper Juras-
sic, respectively) and Marl-Carbonate complex (Tizkoh Landslide influencing factors in the region are defined on the
Formation, lower Cretaceous). These units form the bases of is expert evaluation and consideration the past
highest part of Alborz Mountains in the region. history of landslide events in the region.
Evaluation and Zonation of Landslide Hazard of Northern Tehran District 355
Table 1 Main factor and the calculated

Surface Slide Npix Npix
I Lithology ratio ratio slides total
1 Volcanic 36.50 14.74 6,049 183,890
rocks
2 Sedimentary 04.23 12.70 5,238 21,311
rocks
3 Tuffacious 31.90 37.93 15,567 160,670
rocks
4 Alluvium 19.45 25.63 10,518 97,813
deposits
5 Recent 07.77 08.90 3,774 39,081
deposits
II Slope angle ratio ratio slides total
1 00–05 22.30 20.32 8,247 110,969
2 06–15 29.53 30.13 12,228 146,964
Fig. 3 Road-cut through Tuffacious rocks of Karaj formation and 3 16–35 17.74 21.24 8,621 88,277
development of rock falls 4 36–45 23.18 21.37 8,674 115,359
5 46–90 07.23 06.91 2,805 36,001
Slope Surface Slide Npix Npix
III direction ratio ratio slides total
1 1–65 20.65 19.51 7,920 102,347
2 66–140 19.98 21.56 8,748 99,040
3 141–212 20.62 20.98 8,516 102,206
4 213–286 19.86 19.97 8,106 98,432
5 287–360 18.86 17.95 7,285 93,456
Fault Surface Slide Npix Npix
IV distance ratio ratio slides total
1 0–2 32.59 54.81 552 782,321
2 2–4 23.74 15.19 153 569,932
3 4–6 19.03 03.97 40 456,945
4 6–8 14.12 16.68 168 338,938
5 6–10 10.50 09.33 94 252,256
V Seismicity ratio ratio slides total
Fig. 4 Digital elevation model map of the region 1 0.32–0.38 11.05 02.70 15 851
2 0.38–0.43 18.38 08.30 46 1,416
The influencing factors are identified as lithology, slope 3 0.43–0.48 22.05 11.19 62 1,698
angle, slope direction, fault distance and seismicity. Each 4 0.48–0.53 20.88 25.00 139 1,608
5 0.53–0.58 27.62 52.70 292 2,127
factor is classified into five categories and by the use of
ARC-GIS technique the numerical analysis regarding sur-
face ratio, landslide ratio, the number of pixels involved in with poor cementation of early Quaternary deposits.
landslide and the number of pixels for all area are calculated. Finally, type 5 consists of un-cemented recent alluvial
The results of these calculations are detailed in Table 2. deposits. Distribution of various types of lithology is
Details division of each factor is given below: shown on Fig. 5. Type 1 and type 3 of lithology cover
Lithology: Lithology is an important factor in controlling over 68 % of the land surface.
slope instability. Although various types of rock units Slope angle: The morphological feature of the ground sur-
and deposits are existed in the region but they are classified face is presented by a slope angle map. The preparation of
into five categories regarding their effect on landsliding the map is based on the classification of slope angle into
(see Table 1). Type 1 includes crystalline rock mainly five divisions as indicated in Table 1. Almost 30 % of the
intrusive igneous and basic volcanic rocks. Type 2 surface area has slope angle between 6 and 15 . The
comprises well cemented sedimentary rocks. Type 3 details of slope divisions are also shown on Fig. 6.
consists of almost soft pyroclastic and volcanoclastic Slope direction: In mountainous region of Alborz where the
(tuffacious) rocks. Type 4 contains alluvium deposits variation of temperatures is high, the slope direction can
Fig. 5 Lithological division of the study area Fig. 7 Slope direction map of the study area
Fig. 6 Slope angle map of the study area Fig. 8 Buffer zones of fault distance of the region
be accounted as a main influencing factor. Normally the Seismicity: According to the Iranian Seismic Code (standard
slopes facing the south direction are in more stable con- no. 2800), Tehran is located in a region with relatively
dition than those directed towards the north. The slope high seismic hazard. Therefore the seismic factor is
directions are presented in angle and their orientation are identified as an essential parameter for developing slope
measured from the north position. The details of slope instabilities in the region. According to the rate of the
direction divisions are presented in Table 1 and the plot of ground acceleration generated by the active faults, Tehran
these data are shown on Fig. 7. is located between two seismotectonic provinces, i.e.,
Fault distance: The study area is located in an active tec- Alborz and Central Iran with acceleration rate of 0.5 and
tonic zone which contains numbers of mainly reverse and 0.3 g, respectively (see Fig. 9). The effect of seismicity is
normal faults. The faults are mainly high-angle with large assisted regarding ground acceleration rate which is
dip-slip movements. The reserve faults are dominantly divided into five categories are shown in Table 1.
oriented in E-W trend (Abbassi and Shabanian 2011).
Therefore distance from fault is taken into account as to
be one of the main influencing factors. Division of Landslide Hazard Zonation
2,000 m interval, as shown in Table 1, is considered for
this factor. Over 55 % of the study area is located within Landslide hazard zonation mapping is an empirical approach
the distance 4 km from the main faults. The buffer zone to divide the land surface into zones of varying degree of
map regarding the fault distance is presented on Fig. 8. stability on the bases of their relative hazard vulnerability.
Evaluation and Zonation of Landslide Hazard of Northern Tehran District 357
Fig. 10 Variation of frequency factor for different class of influencing

factors
Fig. 9 Map of seismotectonic provinces in Tehran district
Table 2 Values of frequency ratio (Fr) for main factors

Main factors Classification
1 2 3 4 5
Lithology 0.39 1.18 2.00 1.31 1.14
Slope angle 0.91 1.02 1.19 0.92 0.95
Slope direction 0.94 1.07 1.01 1.00 0.95
Fault distance 1.68 0.63 0.20 1.18 0.88
Seismicity 0.23 0.45 0.50 1.19 1.90
Rating the influencing factors of slope instability is based

on the calculation a frequency ratio (Fr) for any of the
defined factors using the following formula:
0 P
n 1
Npix ðSi Þ= Npix ðSi Þ Fig. 11 Landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) map of North Tehran
B C Districts
Fri ¼ B C
i¼1
@ Pn A
Npix ðNi Þ= Npix ðNi Þ
i¼1 direct relationship with slope instability. As the level of
seismicity increases the potential of landslide occurrences
Where is increased.
Fri is the frequency factor of each factor The generated landslide zonation map for the region is
Npix (Si) is number of pixels contains landslide presented on Fig. 11.
Npix (Ni) is number of pixels of the defined factor
It is obvious the higher value of frequency ratio (Fr) the Conclusion
higher potential of landslide occurrence for that factor. The It can be concluded that the slope instabilities in Tehran
values of frequency ratios for all factors in different classes districts has a wide range of occurrence in the foot hills
are summarized in Table 2. The plots of these values are also and within the highest parts of the mountain terrain.
shown on Fig. 10. The application of Arch-GIS technique was found to
It can be noted that sedimentary rocks with high relief be a useful primary approach for landslide hazard evalu-
have great effect on landslide activities. Slope angle 16–35 ation. The LHZ mapping can be used as a suitable tool to
affect more on landslide occurrence. Although slope direc- identify relatively safe areas for future construction and
tion variations have little effect on landslide but more development in mountainous districts of north Tehran.
landslides can be found on slope with direction 66–140 Among the five defined influencing factors, the effect
from the North. Distances from fault have no clear influence of Lithology is very high and pyroclastic (tuffacious)
on landslide but the nearest distance of less than 2,000 m is rocks of Karaj Formation are more susceptible to land-
more susceptible to landsliding. Finally the seismicity has slide than the other units. The effects of slope angel and
slope direction are not too obvious. Slope angel of 16–35 highland-Gua Musang road Kelantan, Malaysia. J Sains Malays 38
and slope direction between 66 and 140 from the north (6):827–833
Ghafoori M, Sadeghi G, Lashkaripour GR (2006) Landslide hazard
are more susceptible to landsliding. The effect of the third zonation using the relative effect method. In: Proceedings of the
factor, distance from fault, is not clear but the closest 10th IAEG international congress, paper no 474, Nottingham, UK,
distance shows lager number of landslide events. The 6–10 Sept 2006
rate of seismicity indicates direct effect on landslide Ghayomian J, Fatemi Aghida SM, Maleki Z, Shoaei Z (2006) Engi-
neering geology of quaternary deposits of Greater Tehran, Iran. In:
occurrences so by the increase of ground acceleration Proceedings of the 10th IAEG international congress, paper no. 248,
rate the potential of landslide is increasing too. Nottingham, UK, 6–10 Sept 2006
Guzzetti F, Carrara A, Cardinali M, Reichenbach P (1999) Landslide
hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their applica-
tion in multi-scale study, Central Italy. Geomorphology 31:181–216
References Ramakrishnan SS, Sanjeevi Kumar M, Zaffar Sadiq M, Venugopal K
(2002) Landslide disaster management and planning- a GIS based
Abbassi MR, Shabanian E (2011) Evaluation of the stress field in approach, Indian Cartographer, MFDM-05, pp 192–195
Tehran region during the Quaternary. http/www.iiees.ac.ir. Rieben EH (1966) Geological observations on alluvial deposits in
Accessed 6 Aug 2011 northern Tehran. Geological Survey of Iran, report no 9, 39p
Anbalagan R, Chakraborty D, Kohli A (2008) Landslide hazard zona- Takada S, Kuwata Y, Mahdavian A, Rasti R, Imai T (2004) Dislocation
tion (LHZ) mapping on meso-scale for systematic town planning in and strong ground motion zoning under scenario faults for lifelines.
mountainous terrain. J Sci Ind Res 67:486–497 In: Proceedings of the 13th world conference on earthquake, paper
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shear strength of Tehran gravelly sand using triaxial tests. J Sci Uromeihy A, Fattahi M (2011) Landslide hazard zonation of Babolrood
Islam Repub Iran 15(1):65–71 watershed, Iran. In: Proceedings of 2nd international conference on
Berberian M, Qorashi M, Arzang-Ravesh B, Mohajer-Ashjaee A environmental sciences and technology (ICEST), vol 2. Singapore,
(1985) Siesmotectonic and earthquake-fault hazard investigations 26–28 Feb 2011, pp 318–321
in Tehran region. Geological Survey of Iran, report no 56 (in Uromeihy A, Mahdavifar MR (2000) Landslide hazard zonation of the
Persian), 58p Khoreshrostam area, Iran. Bull Eng Geol Environ 58(3):207–213
Gahgah MM, Akhir JM, Rafek AG, Abdullah I (2009) GIS based Varnes DG (1984) Landslide hazard zonation: a review of principles
assessment on landslide hazard zonation: case study of Cameron and practice. UNISCO, France, 63p. ISBN 92-3-101895-7
Three-Dimensional Modelling of Rotational Slope
Failures with GRASS GIS
Martin Mergili and Wolfgang Fellin
Abstract
Landslides starting from unstable slopes threat people, buildings and infrastructures all
over the world and are therefore intensively studied. On the one hand, engineers use
sophisticated models to identify hazardous slopes, mostly based on longitudinal sections.
On the other hand, less sophisticated infinite slope stability models are used in combination
with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in order to cover larger areas. The present
paper describes an attempt to combine these two philosophies and to come up with a
spatially distributed, three-dimensional model for slope stability going beyond the widely
used infinite slope stability concept. Both models are applied to artificial topographies in
order to compare the outcomes of different slip surface assumptions and to benchmark the
validity of the infinite slope stability model. It was found out that the resulting factor of
safety is highly sensitive to the type of model used and to the slip surface geometry. In
complex terrain, the performance of the infinite slope stability model strongly depends on
the specific situation, particularly on slope curvature and slip surface depth.
Keywords
Slope stability models Factor of safety GRASS GIS
Introduction small catchment scale. Infinite slope stability models are

most commonly employed for determining the factor of
GIS-supported analyses of slope stability, landslide suscep- safety FOSinf (e.g. Pack et al. 1998):
tibility and landslide hazard have become very common with

increased computational power in the last decade (e.g. Van c þ cos2 a gs dp dw þ ðgs gw Þdw tan ’
FOSinf ¼ (1)
Westen 2000; Corominas et al. 2003; Van Westen et al. dp gs sin a cos a
2006; Godt et al. 2008). Whilst geostatistical approaches
have been applied in some countries (e.g. Italy, Spain, where c is the cohesion, a is the slope angle, gs and gw are the
South Korea) in order to get a broad picture of hazardous specific weights of regolith and water, dp is the thickness of
slopes on the regional or even national scale, deterministic regolith above the failure plane, dw is the thickness of
approaches are chosen for more detailed analyses on the saturated regolith above the failure plane and ’ is the
angle of internal friction.
Infinite slope stability models are valid for predicting
M. Mergili (*) shallow translational slope failures in rather frictional than
BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna,
Peter-Jordan-Strasse 70, 1190 Vienna, Austria cohesive regolith on uniform, plane slopes. They are often
e-mail: [email protected] coupled with hydraulic models (e.g. Wilkinson et al. 2002).
W. Fellin
However, this type of model is not necessarily suitable for
Unit of Geotechnical and Tunnel Engineering, University of Innsbruck, rotational, deep-seated slope instabilities in cohesive regolith
Innsbruck, Austria

360 M. Mergili and W. Fellin
or failures of curved or dissected slopes (which can not be

seen as „infinite“). Engineers have based their slope stability
calculations on various slip surfaces for many years. Tradi-
tionally, 2D models (longitudinal transects in the direction of
the steepest descent) are used. An overview is given by
Duncan and Wright (2005), Schneider-Muntau and Fellin
(2005) provide one of many case studies. The regolith above
the slip surface is dissected into a number of columns, and the
stabilizing and destabilizing forces or moments are computed
for each of them. The summed up values are combined in
order to compute the factor of safety. The forces between the
columns are unknown in such calculations. There are various
assumptions to take them into account. The simplest one is to
neglect them (Fellenius approach). This generally leads to the
lowest factors of safety (e.g. Kolymbas 2007). The regolith is
assumed as rigid body in these approaches. Elliptical – or
ellipsoidal – slip surfaces used e.g. in Xie et al. (2003, 2006)
are kinematically not possible in such a framework. However,
calculations with deformable regolith, like finite element Fig. 1 Ground plot and longitudinal section of the ellipsoidal slip
slope stability analyses with the strength reduction technique surface
(e.g. Matsui and San 1992) show various non-circular slip
surfaces. For elliptical surfaces, the interslice forces are often
neglected, since this simplifies the computation considerably. Methods
It may be assumed that this yields too conservative estimates
of the factor of safety. Monte-Carlo approaches are frequently Model Layout
used for identifying the most critical slip surface for the area
under investigation (Xie et al. 2003, 2006). The three-dimensional model is named r.rotstab and works
Using longitudinal sections means that the width of the with an ellipsoidal slip surface, defined by the coordinates of
potential slope failure and the three-dimensional topography the centre, the lengths of the three half axes (a, b and c),
of the slope are not accounted for. Some few attempts are horizontal orientation a, and vertical orientation b. The
documented to overcome this problem by combining the model offers two ways of selecting the parameters:
approach described above with GIS, for example the work 1. The slope stability computation is run with user-defined
of Xie et al. (2003, 2006). parameters for one single slip surface
Very few attempts (e.g. Griffiths et al. 2011; Milledge 2. The computation is run for a user-defined number of
et al. 2011) to compare infinite slope stability models to times, each time using an ellipsoid with randomly deter-
more advanced models have been published. Instead, infinite mined lengths of a, b, c and offset of the centre over the
slope stability models are sometimes applied without reflec- terrain zb. a and b are determined in the way that a
tion on their validity for the problem to be solved since they follows the steepest descent of the slope z and c is aligned
are easy to use with GIS. The work presented here is seen as perpendicular to the terrain surface (Fig. 1). Minimum
1. An attempt to integrate a three-dimensional slope stabil- and maximum lengths of the axes as well as zb are defined
ity model based on spherical or ellipsoidal slip surfaces by the user in order to constrain the randomization.
with a raster-based Open Source Geographic Information After transforming the ellipsoid into the GIS coordinate
System (GRASS GIS; GRASS Development Team system, the depth of the slip surface is determined for each raster
1999–2007), in order to allow for the spatially distributed cell. The stabilizing and destabilizing forces are then computed
analysis of slope stability going beyond the widely used for each raster cell, and the factor of safety FOS3d is derived
infinite slope stability concept; according to the Hovland model (Xie et al. 2003, 2006):
2. An attempt to find out the influence of the slip surface P
assumption on the factor of safety and to benchmark the ½cA þ ðW cos y U Þ tan ’
FOS3d ¼ P (2)
validity of the infinite slope stability model. The geometry W sin yavr
of the potential landslide body and the type of topography
(simple or complex) are taken as criteria. Analytically where A is the area of the slip surface of the cell, W is the weight
defined topographies are used for this evaluation. of the overlying regolith, U is the pore water force, y is the angle
Three-Dimensional Modelling of Rotational Slope Failures with GRASS GIS 361
Fig. 3 Hypothetic topographies used for the tests (1) and (2)
and are shown in Fig. 3. Homogeneous and dry regolith with

angle of internal friction ’ ¼ 30 , cohesion c ¼ 10 kN/m2
and specific weight g ¼ 20 kN/m3 is assumed for each test.
The regolith overlays unconditionally stable bedrock. The
model is run for assumed regolith depths of 2, 5, 10, 20 and
Fig. 2 Influence of the slip surface on the factor of safety 40 m. A raster cell size of 2 m is used.
1. Simple topography: an inclined plane with a slope angle
of the slip surface, and yavr is the average inclination of the slip
of zx ¼ 35 in x-direction and zy ¼ 0 in y-direction is
surface in the main inclination direction of the possible land-
used. Purpose is to explore the influence of the geometry
slide. Additional forces or seismic loads are neglected.
of the slip surface on the factor of safety FOS3d and on the
The decisive slip surface is not necessarily the bottom of the
ratio FOS3d/FOSinf. Three types of slip surfaces are
ellipsoid: also weak layers within the ellipsoid are considered.
tested:
Figure 2 shows the tremendous influence of the choice of the
a. Spherical slip surface with a ¼ b ¼ c;
slip surface, using a simple arbitrary topography with friction-
b. Ellipsoidal slip surface with a b c.
less regolith and a weak layer at 2.5 m depth, bedded on a
c. Truncated ellipsoidal slip surface, also with
resistant layer. The theoretical slip surface (which is a circle in
a b c.
this example) reaches far into the resistant layer, resulting in
In the case of the truncated ellipsoidal slip surface, the
rather stable conditions (FOS3d ¼ 2.53). Allowing the rego-
bedrock surface is allowed as slip surface if the ellipsoid
lith to fail at the bottom of the weak layer leads to unstable
reaches into the unconditionally stable bedrock (see
conditions (FOS3d ¼ 0.64). The model r.rotstab includes the
Fig. 2). Therefore, this slip surface may actually be the
option to allow slope failures at the interface between two
combination of an ellipsoid and a plane.
layers.
For each assumed geometry, FOS3d is taken as the
Maximum length L, width W and depth D of the potential
minimum factor of safety from 1,000 random slip
landslide body are expressed in the coordinate system used
surfaces. For the Monte Carlo simulation, a, b and c are
in the GIS, with horizontal and vertical axes (see Fig. 1b;
constrained between 100 and 2 m, zb is constrained
W runs perpendicular to L and D and is not shown).
between 0 and c.
The program requires a digital elevation model, the rego-
In addition, the infinite slope stability model is run,
lith parameters for each layer (cohesion c, angle of internal
yielding a global FOSinf for each assumed regolith depth.
friction ’, specific weight g), the depth of each layer and the
As prescribed for homogeneous and dry cohesive mate-
groundwater level as input. After repeating the slope stabil-
rial underlain by stable bedrock, the most critical slip
ity computation for each randomly determined ellipsoid, the
surface is always the bedrock surface.
minimum factor of safety from the overlay of all slip
2. Complex topography: a narrow v-shaped valley with a
surfaces is determined for each raster cell. In addition, a
bell-shaped distribution of the slope in x-direction zx
table with the input parameters and the resulting FOS3d for
each ellipsoid is generated.
3:5 0:5ðx250
80 Þ
2
tan zx ¼ e (3)
p
Test Design
and tan zy ¼ 40 is assumed. The purpose of this test is to
Two different sets of tests are performed. The analytically identify the influence of complex slope curvature on
defined slopes used for each test have a size of 500 200 m FOS3d/FOSinf of potential slip surfaces. For each assumed
regolith depth, 10,000 truncated ellipsoidal random slip The ratio a/b of the tested ellipsoids has no significant
surfaces are tested. The longest axis of the ellipsoid is influence on the resulting safety factor. In general, the
constrained with 20–100 m, the shortest axis with ellipsoids with the lowest safety factors are those with rather
2–40 m. The lengths of the three axes and the coordinates long a axis and short c axis. When reducing the length of the
of the centre point of the ellipsoid are varied randomly a axis at constant depth, FOS3d increases considerably due to
whilst zb is set to 0. The longest axis of the ellipsoid is the increased importance of the support by the slope below
always directed along the steepest slope. For each pixel, (Fig. 5b). The small circles and ellipsoids identified as most
the lowest factor of safety among the values for all slip critical for shallow regolith as shown in Fig. 4 may be the
surfaces touching the respective pixel is applied as consequence of an insufficient number of tested random
FOS3d. In addition, the infinite slope stability model is ellipsoids and a too coarse spatial resolution. Also the dif-
applied for each pixel and FOSinf is computed for the ference between the two ellipsoids identified as most critical
bedrock surface. for 40 m regolith depth (which should actually be identical)
could be eliminated by a much larger number of random
simulations.
Results
Simple Topography Complex Topography
In this case of a quasi-infinite slope, assuming spherical or Figure 6 illustrates the ratio FOS3d/FOSinf for five different
ellipsoidal slip surfaces makes sense for cohesive material assumptions of regolith depth for the v-shaped valley
only. Technically, such assumptions are also applicable to described above. The general patterns show that in rather
cohesionless material, but from a physical point of view, plane areas, the ratio is above 1 (FOS3d > FOSinf), a phe-
rotational failures in slopes with a constant inclination can nomenon which was explained in detail in the previous
only occur in cohesive material. section. In areas with pronounced curvature, the ratio is
The factor of safety FOS3d yielded for the most critical below 1 (FOS3d < FOSinf). Two types of curvatures have
condition strongly depends on the regolith depth and the to be discussed:
geometry of the assumed failure plane. Figure 4 shows 1. Moderate curvature in x direction without change of
longitudinal sections through the slope for all tested cases. direction of steepest slope: the curved areas for all five
In general, FOS3d decreases with increasing regolith depth. assumptions of regolith depth are characterized by lower
However, the decisive slip surface for a regolith depth of FOS3d/FOSinf ratios than the plane portions of the slope –
40 m does not reach the bedrock surface, but only a maxi- for deep bedrock surfaces, this effect is partly offset, but
mum depth <30 m. Support by the underlying slope seems still clearly visible in principle. The reason for this phe-
to counterbalance the effect of decreasing stability with nomenon is that for each pixel, the lowest (and therefore
increasing slip surface depth, as it is also shown in Fig. 5a. relevant) value of FOS3d belongs to an ellipsoid which
It becomes obvious from Fig. 4 that it makes no big differ- covers mainly the steeper portion adjacant to the curved
ence in FOS3d whether 20 or 40 m regolith depth is assumed. area than the flatter one, with a lower factor of safety.
This means that, whilst the truncated ellipsoidal slip surface FOSinf, in contrast, is only influenced by the slope of the
yields the most critical factor of safety in shallow regolith, respective pixel and not by its geometric environment.
the truncated ellipsoid is not relevant any more when assum- 2. Sharp curvature in y direction with change of direction of
ing deeper regolith. steepest slope (valley bottom): except for the pixels
For all assumed regolith depths, the most critical factor of directly at the bottom, the influence of the sharp terrain
safety yielded with the three-dimensional model is very bend is relatively small. The reason for this phenomenon
close to FOSinf. This is not surprising for shallow regolith is that the most critical slip surface will hardly touch both
where most of the truncated ellipsoid slip surface is formed sides of the valley (the slope would be smoothed out and
by the regolith bottom also relevant for the infinite slope FOS3d would be high), but only one side.
stability model (see Fig. 4). However, it is also true for However, the ratio FOS3d/FOSinf is higher very close to
deeper regolith where the three-dimensional slip surface is the valley bottom due to the lower probability of this zone to
much shallower than the regolith bottom. be included in the most critical slip surface (vicinity of the
The safety factors yielded for the different slip surface opposite slope). Similarly, the anomalies at the fringes of the
geometries vary much more for shallow than for deep rego- calculation area are caused by the lower number of relevant
lith. The spherical slip surfaces – and for rather shallow ellipsoids there. Both effects would probably be removed (or
regolith also the ellipsoidal slip surfaces – produce signifi- at least reduced) by considerably increasing the number of
cantly higher safety factors than the truncated slip surfaces. random simulations.
spherical slip surface ellipsoidal slip surface truncated ellipsoidal slip surface
220 220 220

regolith depth = 2 m
FOS 3d = 1.769 FOS 3d = 1.721 FOS 3d = 1.363 FOS inf = 1.357
180 180 180
140 140 140
100 100 100

a = b = c = 2.4 mzb = 1.1 m a = 8.1 m = b = 2.0 m c = 2.0 m a = 96.5 m = b = 43.6 m c = 28.4 m
L = 2 m = D = 1.0 m zb = 0.6 m L = 12 m D = 1.8 m zb = 1.7 m L = 156 m D = 32.7 m
60 60 60
0 40 80 120 160 0 40 80 120 160 0 40 80 120 160
220 220 220

180 180 180
140 140 140
100 100 100

a = b = c = 55.0 m zb = 51.0 m a = 42.4 m = b = 5.9 m c = 3.6 m a = 63.9 m = b = 13.4 m c = 13.2 m
L = 32m D = 4.8 m zb = 0.1 m L = 68 m D = 4.3 m zb = 0.2 m L = 104 m D = 15.8 m
60 60 60
0 40 80 120 160 0 40 80 120 160 0 40 80 120 160
220 220 220

180 180 180
140 140 140
100 100 100

a = b = c = 79.8 m zb = 71.8 m a = 89.4 m = b = 14.3 m c =11.6 m a = 91.9 m = b = 11.5 m c = 9.6 m
L = 54 m D = 9.8 m zb = 3.6 m L = 136 m D = 9.8 m zb = 0.7 m L = 148 m D = 10.8 m
60 60 60
0 40 80 120 160 0 40 80 120 160 0 40 80 120 160
220 220 220

180 180 180
140 140 140
100 100 100

60 60 60
0 40 80 120 160 0 40 80 120 160 0 40 80 120 160
220 220 220

180 180 180
140 140 140
100 100 100

60 60 60
0 40 80 120 160 0 40 80 120 160 0 40 80 120 160
Fig. 4 Longitudinal sections through the most critical slip surfaces for different regolith depths and assumed slip surface geometries. Regolith is
shown in green, length units are given in metres
Fig. 5 Variation of FOS3d as a response to slip surface parameters D and L assuming an ellipsoidal potential failure plane, and comparison with
FOSinf
Fig. 6 Ratio FOS3d/FOSinf for

complex topography with
truncated ellipsoidal slip surface
and five different assumptions of
regolith depth
Conclusions influence of slip surface geometry on the predicted factor

A GIS-based three-dimensional slope stability model of safety was worked out.
based on spherical or ellipsoidal potential slip surfaces The choice of an appropriate slip surface is a key for
was presented. The factors of safety yielded with differ- the successful modelling of slope stability. With the
ent assumptions of slip surface geometry were compared assumptions taken in the present study, truncated ellipsoidal
to those derived with the infinite slope stability model for slip surfaces generally produce the most conservative
two different analytically defined topographies. The results, with safety factors very close to those yielded with
importance of advanced three-dimensional models for the infinite slope stability model. However, the truncation is
slope stability calculations was highlighted and the not relevant for deep homogeneous regolith. The spherical
slip surfaces yield higher safety factors. Particularly for rotational failures rather occur in cohesive material.
shallow regolith, the critical factor of safety yielded by the The suitability of each model for a given problem
infinite slope stability model or the truncated ellipsoidal slip therefore also depends on the properties of the rock
surface differs considerably from the critical factor of safety or debris involved.
derived with spherical slip surfaces. The choice of the appropriate model type and the appro-
For more complex topographies, the infinite slope sta- priate slip surface geometry is therefore an essential step of
bility model does not necessarily provide the most conser- each hazard analysis which – in the impression of the
vative results: particularly in curved areas, the factor of authors – is too often governed by the background of the
safety yielded with the truncated ellipsoidal slip surface investigator and the software and data available rather
may be significantly lower. More tests with different slip than by the so important local conditions. Particularly the
surface geometries and with a variety of terrain geometries relatively easy application of infinite slope stability models
are required to get a deeper insight into the problem. The with GIS attracts a lot of research. A sensible choice of the
findings presented here are valid only for the assumed appropriate model is essential for the outcome of each
conditions. The suitable assumption of sliding surface slope stability analysis. The work presented here is under-
geometry to be applied to a specific real-world problem stood as an attempt to facilitate such a choice and to bring
strongly depends on the local conditions. forward GIS-based model development beyond the infinite
Furthermore, in-depth analyses of the minimum num- slope stability concept. However, it has to be emphasized
ber of random slip surfaces to be tested in order to get that the results of the present study are only valid for the
reliable results as well as of the suitable raster cell size in parameter combinations tested, and more work is required
relation to the slip surface dimensions are required. in order to achieve a more comprehensive picture on the
The evaluation of the test results has to consider that suitability of the different methods and geometry assum-
the infinite slope stability model and three-dimensional ptions for slope stability calculations.
models working with spherical or ellipsoidal slip surfaces
are not fully comparable:
1. The infinite slope stability model follows a pixel-based
approach, whilst the three-dimensional model works
with aggregates of pixels. References
2. The depth of the potential slip surface for the three-
Corominas J, Copons R, Vilaplana JM, Altamir J, Amigó J (2003)
dimensional model is prescribed by the bottom of the Integrated landslide susceptibility analysis and hazard assessment
ellipsoid, at least in the case of strictly ellipsoidal slip in the principality of Andorra. Nat Hazards 30:421–435
surfaces. The infinite slope stability model, in contrast, Duncan JM, Wright SG (2005) Soil strength and slope stability. Wiley,
Hoboken
is applied with a plane, slope-parallel slip surface.
Godt JW, Baum RL, Savage WZ, Salciarini D, Schulz WH, Harp EL
Whilst the depth of the potential slip surface does not (2008) Transient deterministic shallow landslide modeling:
matter for dry and cohesionless regolith, it has a tre- requirements for susceptibility and hazard assessments in a GIS
mendous influence on the stability in cohesive regolith. framework. Eng Geol 102(3–4):214–226
GRASS Development Team (1999–2007) GRASS GIS reference man-
This hampers the comparison of the two model types.
ual. http://grass.itc.it/
However, Milledge et al. (2011) state that for length to Griffiths DW, Huang J, de Wolfe GF (2011) Numerical and analytical
depth ratios >17, the infinite slope stability model observations on long and infinite slopes. Int J Numer Anal Method
would be unconditionally suitable, whilst lower ratios Geomech 35:569–585
Kolymbas D (2007) Geotechnik: Bodenmechanik und Grundbau.
would also be acceptable under certain conditions, par-
Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg
ticularly for cohesionless, frictional regolith. Milledge Matsui T, San KC (1992) Finite element slope stability analysis by
et al. (2011), however, used a two-dimensional model. shear strength reduction technique. Soils Found 32(1):59–70
Also Griffiths et al. (2011) came to similar conclusions: Milledge D, Griffiths V, Warburton J, Lane S (2011) Can we use the
infinite slope model within catchment scale landslide models
the factor of safety predicted by their finite element
given its landslide length assumption? Geophys Res Abstr 13:
analysis approached the factor of safety yielded by the EGU2011–EGU3127
infinite slope stability model for length to depth ratios Pack RT, Tarboton DG, Goodwin CN (1998) The SINMAP approach to
>16. However, it has to be emphasized that for predic- terrain stability mapping. In: Proceedings of the 8th congress of the
international association of engineering geology, Vancouver, BC.
tive studies, the length and depth of slope failures is not
Schneider-Muntau B, Fellin W (2005) Fallstudie Mure Nals -
a priori known, so that process understanding and Untersuchung des Muranbruchs mittels Standsicherheitsberech-nung.
knowledge on the local conditions are more important Österreichische Ingenieur- und Architektenzeitschrift 150:42–45
than purely geometric aspects when selecting the suit- Van Westen CJ (2000) The modelling of landslide hazards using GIS.
Surv Geophys 21:241–255
able model for a specific case study.
Van Westen CJ, Van Asch TWJ, Soeters R (2006) Landslide hazard
3. In general, the infinite slope stability model is rather and risk zonation – why is it still so difficult? Bull Eng Geol Environ
valid for frictional, cohesionless material, whilst 65:167–184
Wilkinson PL, Anderson MG, Lloyd DM (2002) An integrated hydro- new geographic information systems component. Environ Geol
logical model for rain-induced landslide prediction. Earth Surf 43:503–512
Process Landf 27:1285–1297 Xie M, Esaki T, Qiu C, Wang C (2006) Geographical information system-
Xie M, Esaki T, Zhou G, Mitani Y (2003) Three-dimensional stability based computational implementation and application of spatial three-
evaluation of landslides and a sliding process simulation using a dimensional slope stability analysis. Comput Geotech 33:260–274
A GRASS GIS Implementation of the Savage-Hutter
Avalanche Model and Its Application to the 1987
Val Pola Event
Martin Mergili, Katharina Schratz, Alexander Ostermann,

and Wolfgang Fellin
Abstract
Computer models play an increasing role for the understanding of the dynamics of granular
flows (rock avalanches, debris flows, snow avalanches etc.). Simple empirical relationships or
semi-deterministic models are often applied in GIS-based modelling environments. However,
they are only appropriate for rough overviews at the regional scale. In detail, granular flows are
highly complex processes and deterministic models are required for a detailed understanding
of such phenomena. One of the most advanced theories for understanding and modelling
granular flows is the Savage-Hutter model, a system of differential equations based on the
conservation of mass and momentum. The equations have been solved for a number of
idealized topographies, but not yet satisfactorily for arbitrary terrain. Not many attempts to
integrate the model with GIS were known up to now. The work presented is seen as an
initiative to integrate a fully deterministic model for the motion of granular flows, based on the
Savage-Hutter theory, with GRASS, an Open Source GIS software package. The potentials of
the model are highlighted with the Val Pola rock avalanche as test event. The limitations and
the most urging needs for further research are discussed.
Keywords
Granular flows Physically-based modelling GRASS GIS Val Pola rock avalanche
Introduction reduction, e.g. definition of hazard zones, dimensioning of

technical structures etc. (Hungr et al. 2005).
Granular flows – including avalanches of snow, mud, debris Since the 1990s, Geographic Information Sciences (GIS)
or even rocks – are highly destructive phenomena putting play an increasing role in mapping and prediction of land-
people, buildings and infrastructures at risk. Delineation of slide, debris flow, and avalanche hazard and risk. They
possible impact areas as well as flow velocities and energies enable an efficient management of spatial data at all spatial
is an essential precondition for efficient action towards risk scales, usually in raster or vector format.
Models for the motion of rapid mass movements as gran-
ular flows may be classified into empirical-statistical models,
M. Mergili (*) point mass models, and physically-based distributed models.
BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Often, empirical-statistical relationships based on the
Peter-Jordan-Strasse 70, 1190 Vienna, Austria analysis of historical events are employed for the estimation
of key parameters (travel distance, patterns of deposition).
K. Schratz A. Ostermann Threshold values of slope angles or horizontal and vertical
Department of Mathematics, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck,
Austria
distances (e.g. Vandre 1985; Corominas et al. 2003), related
to volume (e.g. Rickenmann 1999 for debris flows) are used
W. Fellin
Division of Geotechnical and Tunnel Engineering, University of
as criteria. Empirical-statistical models are often applied in
Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria combination with GIS for regional-scale studies.

368 M. Mergili et al.
Point mass models assume one or more dimensionless

starting points of the granular flow being routed downwards
separately. Approaches for snow avalanches or debris flows
use simple two-parameter friction models (Voellmy 1955;
Perla et al. 1980; Gamma 2000). Point mass models are often
applied in combination with GIS.
Fully deterministic distributed models are based on the
spatial definition of the starting mass (cluster of cells) routed
downwards taking into account the interactions between the
cells. They are suitable for local-scale studies. Movements
are computed based on physical laws, assuming specific flow
rheologies (e.g. Savage and Hutter 1989; Hungr 1995;
Iverson 1997; McDougall and Hungr 2004, 2005). GIS
applications of such models are still rather scarce. Examples
Fig. 1 Idealized topography for the solution of the Savage-Hutter
exist where numerical models can be coupled with proprie- model by Wang et al. (2004), also used for r.avalanche
tary GIS software, for example FLO-2D (O’Brien 2003) or
SAMOS (Sampl and Zwinger 2004), or where numerical
models have been used in combination with GIS, like DAN
with GRASS GIS (Hungr 1995; Revellino et al. 2008). The
Methods
RAMMS model (Christen et al. 2010), primarily applied to
snow avalanches, uses Voellmy (1955) viscous drag and runs
Model Basics
with GRASS GIS in the background. However, the full GIS
implementation of more complex models (e.g. Savage and
The Savage-Hutter model (Savage and Hutter 1989) is
Hutter 1989) remains a challenge. Even though progress on
expressed as a system of differential equations describing
the application of the Savage-Hutter model was recently
the conservation of mass and momentum:
made on a on a theoretical basis (e.g. Luca et al. 2009;
Pudasaini 2011), no satisfactory solution for arbitrary topog-
raphy is yet available. Pudasaini (2003) presented a solution ð1Þ
for curved and twisted channels, and Wang et al. (2004)
devised a numerical scheme applicable to flows over com-
plex terrain on a horizontally straight flow path (Gray et al. ð2Þ
1999). Both solutions rely on non-rectangular coordinate
systems. Whilst such are adequate for the problems to be
solved, they seem to discourage geoinformation scientists as ð3Þ
their application in conventional raster-based GIS environ-
ments requires some adaptations.
The present article describes an attempt to implement a where h is the avalanche thickness, and u and v are the depth-
fully physically-based model for the motion of granular averaged downslope and cross-slope velocities. sx and sy are
flows with GIS. The software GRASS GIS was selected for the net driving accelerations:
this purpose. As an Open Source GIS package with focus on
raster processing, GRASS facilitates model development, u @b
sx ¼ sinz pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi tandðcosz þ lku2 Þ ecosz ; (4)
distribution and evaluation: the entire scientific community u þv
2 2 @x
has the chance to contribute to the evaluation of the model
and the further development of the program code. Examples
u @b
of GRASS implementations of mass movement models are sy ¼ pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi tan dðcos z þ lku2 Þ e cos z ; (5)
provided e.g. by Cannata and Molinari (2008) and Mergili u þv
2 2 @y
et al. (submitted).
The GRASS module developed was named r.avalanche. where z is the downslope inclination angle of the reference
It builds on the Savage-Hutter model (Savage and Hutter surface, k is the local curvature of the reference surface, b is
1989) and a numerical scheme devised by Wang et al. (2004) the elevation above the reference surface, and e and l are
for simple concave topographies with an only vertically factors. bx and by are defined as
curved flow line (Fig. 1). It is therefore only suitable for
flows moving predominantly in downslope direction. bx ¼ e cos zKx (6)
A GRASS GIS Implementation of the Savage-Hutter Avalanche Model and Its Application. . . 369
and Implementation into GRASS GIS
by ¼ e cos zKy : (7) r.avalanche was developed as a raster module for GRASS
GIS, using the C programming language. The implementa-
Kx and Ky are the earth pressure coefficients in downslope tion of the Savage-Hutter model and its solution by Wang
and cross-slope directions: et al. (2004) into GIS raises two issues: (1, 2, 3) provide
dimensionless values whilst the description of phenomena in
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi nature requires dimensional values, and the solution is valid
Kx;act=pass ¼ 2 1 1 cos2 ’=cos2 d sec2 ’ 1; (8)
for a curvilinear reference system only, in contrast to GIS
qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi which usually use a rectangular system.
1 The first issue concerns the non-dimensionalization of the
Ky;act=pass ¼ Kx þ 1 ðKx 1Þ2 þ 4 tan2 d : (9)
2 governing parameters. Pudasaini (2003) describes a way to
convert the dimensionless variables into dimensional ones,
’ is the angle of internal friction, and d is the bed friction using the typical avalanche length L, the typical avalanche
angle. Active stress rates (subscript act) are connected to depth H, the typical radius of curvature R and gravitational
local elongation of the flowing mass, passive stress rates acceleration g. The implemented model computes the
(subscript pass) are connected to local shortening – it dimensionless variables and converts them to dimensional
depends on acceleration or deceleration of the flow whether values according to Pudasaini (2003) for output. The scaling
active or passive stress rates are applied. Equations 8 and 9 parameters L, H, and R are set to 1 in this paper. The factors
are valid only as long as the flow moves predominantly in e ¼ H/L and l ¼ L/R are therefore 1 as well. However, the
downslope direction. choice of the scaling parameters does not influence the
The system of equations described above is only valid for numerical results since (1), (2), (3), (4), (5), (6), (7), (8)
the shallow flow of cohesionless and incompressible granu- and (9) are scale invariant.
lar materials which can be considered as continuum. The The solution of Wang et al. (2004) is formulated using a
curvature of the terrain has to be relatively small. All curvilinear coordinate system based on a talweg which shall
variables are dimensionless, meaning that the model is be the predominant flow direction (see Fig. 1). The original
scale-invariant and small-scale laboratory tests can be used rectangular coordinate system of the input raster maps has to
as reference for large-scale problems in nature. be converted into the coordinate system for the simulation:
first, the coordinate system is rotated around the z axis so
that the direction of the main flow line is aligned with the
Numerical Solution of the Equations new x (down-slope) direction. The main flow line is based on
two user-defined pairs of coordinates. A reference surface is
Equations 1, 2 and 3 were solved using a Non-Oscillatory then created, defined by the given talweg and an inclination
Central Differencing (NOC) Scheme, a numerical scheme of zero in y (cross-slope) direction. Based on this reference
useful to avoid unphysical numerical oscillations. Cell surface, the offset b (m) – defined as the distance between
averages of h, u and v are computed using a staggered grid: terrain surface and reference surface perpendicular to the
the system is moved half of the cell size with every time step, reference surface – and the initial avalanche thickness h are
the values at the corners of the cells and in the middle of derived.
the cells are computed alternatively. The NOC Scheme After completing the simulation, the entire system is
devised by Wang et al. (2004) was used for r.avalanche. reconverted into the rectangular coordinate system used in
The degree of diffusion of the flow material is governed by the GRASS GIS mapset.
using slope limiters, restricting the gradients of flow depth to
a certain range. The minmod limiter was already used by
Wang et al. (2004) and also for the present work since it is
Study Area and Data
known as the most diffusive one, reducing numerical
oscillations.
The 1987 Val Pola Rock Avalanche
The simulation is run for a number of time steps until a
pre-defined break condition is fulfilled. The time steps have
The Val Pola rock avalanche (Valtellina, Lombardy Region,
to be kept short enough to fulfil the Courant-Friedrichs-Levy
Northern Italy; Fig. 2), like most large mass movements, has
(CFL) condition required for obtaining smooth solutions
been subject of numerous detailed studies. A review with the
(see Wang et al. 2004).
relevant references is provided by Govi et al. (2002).
Table 1 Parameter combinations applied for the simulations

Cell size (m) d ( ) ’ ( )
Simulation 1 20 22 35
Inventory (IFFI Project) and a map published by Crosta et al.

(2003). Possible inaccuracies are caused by secondary pro-
cesses, e.g. mud flows downstream blurring the delineation
of the impact area down-valley.
r.avalanche was run with different combinations of
parameter sets (Table 1), using values applied by Crosta
et al. (2004) as a base: angle of internal friction ’ ¼ 35
and bed friction angle d ¼ 22 . The standard cell size for the
computation was set to 20 m, the same as of the DEM used.
The model was also tested with 40 and 12 m cell size.
Fig. 2 Val Pola rock avalanche. Distribution of detached and deposited
volumes as derived from the DEM change detection, affected area
mapped from Landsat TM imagery. DEM source: De Ferranti
(2005–2010) Results
Granular flow modelling was already applied there (e.g. by Simulation with Published Friction Parameters
Crosta et al. 2003, 2004).
The event occurred on July 28, 1987 after a period of The model was first run at a cell size of 20 m (according to
heavy and persistent rainfall. Preceded by the opening of a the DEM resolution) with ’ ¼ 35 and d ¼ 22 (Simulation
prominent crack, a block of highly fractured and faulted 1; see Table 1). This simulation can be considered as a blind
igneous and metamorphic rocks detached and rushed into validation with the parameters used by Crosta et al. (2004).
the valley. The volume of the released mass was estimated Figure 3 illustrates the distribution of flow depth at selected
to 34–43 million m, the entrainment by the resulting rock time intervals from the onset (t ¼ 0) to t ¼ 300 s, when the
avalanche to further 5–8 million m (Crosta et al. 2003), the flow is assumed having stopped. 86 % of the modelled
maximum velocity to 76–108 m/s (see Crosta et al. 2004). deposit coincide with the observed area of deposition, and
Govi et al. (2002) distinguished six phases of the movement, 79 % of the observed deposition area are occupied by the
with a duration of the main avalanching phase of 8–12.5 s. modelled deposit (considering only those areas with depth of
The mass moved up 300 m on the opposite slope. In the main deposition >1 m; Table 2). The travel distance modelled for
valley, it continued 1.5 km downstream and 1.5 km upstream, the central part of the deposit corresponds very well to the
with a maximum thickness of 90 m. The river Adda was observation.
dammed, and an artificial drainage was constructed rapidly However, the measured maximum depth is approx. 90 m
in order to avoid an uncontrolled sudden drainage of the (Govi et al. 2002) and the model yields a maximum depth of
rising lake. The event claimed 27 human lives and caused 75 m only. Furthermore, some portions of the lateral (N and
high economic costs (Crosta et al. 2003). S) parts of the modelled deposit deviate from the observed
deposit. There, the travel distance is rather underestimated.
The implementation of the model used for the present study
Data does not allow for a reliable simulation of the very lateral
(in this case, N and S) parts of the deposit.
Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) before and after the event, Already shortly after the onset of the flow (t ¼ 10 s), the
geotechnical parameters of the sliding mass and the sliding simulation predicts a degree of lateral spreading of the flow
surface, and reference information on the distribution of the beyond the observed extent. As a consequence, part of the
deposit were obtained. The affected area was mapped from material crosses the delineation of the catchment and follows
Landsat TM imagery and verified with the Italian Landslide gullies N and S, a behaviour not at all observed in reality.
50 m/s. A two-dimensional model yielded a maximum of

50 m/s for the Val Pola event (Crosta et al. 2003).
Analysis of Parameter Sensitivity
The values used for ’ and d – and their spatial distribution in

particular – are uncertain. Therefore, the sensitivity of the
model to variations of these governing parameters has to be
evaluated. r.avalanche is supposed to be sensitive also to the
cell size used for the simulation. Table 2 summarizes the key
output parameters for each simulation and the correspon-
dence of modelled and observed deposit.
The simulation was first repeated with 40 m (Simulation
2) and 12 m cell size (Simulation 3), respectively, with the
remaining parameters left unchanged. The variations of the
cell size did not lead to a general shift in the behaviour of
the simulated rock avalanche. However, with coarser resolu-
tion, spreading of the flow is more pronounced, leading to a
larger impact area, but a shallower deposit (see Table 2).
This effect is particularly visible when comparing the results
for 40 and 20 m and much less pronounced between 20
Fig. 3 Time series of flow depth distribution simulated with ’ ¼ 35
and d ¼ 22 at a cell size of 20 m. Only flow depths >1 m are shown
and 12 m. A maximum flow velocity of 86 m/s was predicted
with 40 m cell size, 96 m/s with 12 m cell size. These
findings are not surprising as the cell size governs the
Table 2 Correspondence of observed and modelled rock avalanche distance of spreading during each time step of the simula-
deposit and key output parameters for each simulation: c1 ¼ percent- tion. Tests with channelized debris flows have shown that
age of surface of modelled deposit with depth >1 m located within the
observed deposition area; c2 ¼ percentage of observed deposition area r. avalanche only works well if the cell size is much smaller
with modelled deposition of depth >1 m; dmax ¼ maximum depth of than the width of the flow, otherwise lateral spreading is
modelled deposition (m); vmax ¼ maximum modelled flow velocity overestimated. A cell size of 40 m is definitely too coarse for
(m/s) the simulation of the Val Pola rock avalanche. The less
c1 c2 dmax vmax pronounced difference between the results yielded with 20
Simulation 1 86 79 75 94 and 12 m suggests that these values are close to the cell size
Simulation 2 73 91 39 86 ideal for the simulation of this specific event.
Simulation 3 93 73 85 96 The simulation was then repeated with d ¼ 18 (Simula-
Simulation 4 85 78 67 107
tion 4) and 26 (Simulation 5; Fig. 4). The expected effects
of reduced flow velocity and resulting delayed motion with
increasing values of d were observed. Whilst the simulated
maximum travel distance is longer when assuming a lower
bed friction (t ¼ 40 s and t ¼ 60 s in Fig. 4a), the final travel
The lake dammed by the rock avalanche deposit was distance at t ¼ 300 s is almost the same with d ¼ 18 and
modelled by filling the sink behind the simulated deposit with d ¼ 22 (see Fig. 4b). Also with d ¼ 26 , the modelled
(see t ¼ 300 s in Fig. 3). The modelled lake is slightly larger deposit reaches approx. as far E as in the other simulations.
than the lake observed on September 20, 1987 (see Fig. 2). Furthermore, varying the bed friction angle may result in
Flow velocity is another important characteristic of gran- a highly nonlinear response governed by several factors.
ular flows. However, it is difficult to verify since direct With d ¼ 18 , the maximum thickness of the deposit
reference measurements are hardly applicable. The maxi- decreases to 67 m (see Table 2), compared to d ¼ 22
mum simulated velocity in downslope direction is 94 m/s. (75 m), an effect to be attributed primarily to increased
This value is well within the estimated range of 76–108 m/s lateral spreading (N–S direction). With d ¼ 26 , part of the
(Crosta et al. 2004), but appears very high, anyway. Very flow material would remain in the transit and even onset
rapid mass movements may reach 100 m/s and more area. The deposit would therefore assume a much more
(Scheidegger 1973). However, velocities of rock avalanches stretched shape in E–W direction, with a maximum depth
comparable to the Val Pola event typically range from 30 to of 69 m.
In general, a lower angle of internal friction ’ should lead

to a thinned deposit due to an increased tendency to spread
out, higher values of ’ should have the reverse effect. Also
here, the situation is more complex in natural terrain, partic-
ularly in narrow valleys (Fig. 5): internal friction angles of
’ ¼ 40 (Simulation 6) and 45 (Simulation 7) were tested
against the published value of ’ ¼ 35 . The lowest value of
’ causes the model to predict the largest maximum depth of
the deposit (75 m).
This actually unexpected outcome is a consequence of the
stronger tendency of material with reduced internal friction
to level out and therefore fill up the valley bottom. With
’ ¼ 0 , the surface of the deposit would tend to assume a
horizontal plane. This case cannot be tested with r.avalanche
since the Savage-Hutter model is not valid for ’ < d. When
assuming higher values of ’, there is less of a tendency of
the modelled rock avalanche to level out the valley bottom,
and the deposit spreads over a larger area, but with a lower
maximum depth (67 m for ’ ¼ 40 and 60 m for ’ ¼ 45 ).
Conclusions
r.avalanche represents a first attempt to implement a fully
deterministic granular flow model with Open Source GIS.
With respect to travel distance and impact areas, the
model seems potentially suitable for Class A predictions:
the observed patterns were well reconstructed without re-
calibration of the input parameters. In contrast, the maxi-
mum depth of the deposit was rather underestimated. The
Fig. 4 Longitudinal profiles of the flow at different time steps with modelled flow velocity corresponds well to published
’ ¼ 35 : comparison of the results with d ¼ 18, 22 and 26 with a cell estimates (Crosta et al. 2004) which, however, appear
size of 20 m – the flow depth for d ¼ 18 is also shown proportionally
to the terrain; (b) flow depth distribution after t ¼ 300 s, computed with high when compared to those specified for other rock
three different assumptions of d avalanches. The quality of the results may be limited by
uncertainties in the governing parameters and their spatial
patterns. However, some drawbacks are also prescribed
by the design of the model.
r.avalanche is only applicable to granular flows with
approximately straight flow lines, as this was a basic
assumption in the derivation of the equations for flows
over complex terrain by Gray et al. (1999) on which the
here used numerical scheme is based. Pudasaini (2003)
has solved the Savage-Hutter model for curved and
twisted channels, but this approach is hardly applicable
to raster-based GIS.
Furthermore, entrainment of regolith during the flow is
disregarded – in the case of the Valpola rock avalanche,
entrainment was not extremely significant, but other cases
were reported where entrainment has played a major role
for the travel distance of granular flows (McDougall and
Hungr 2005).
The role of pore water for the motion of the flow is
Fig. 5 Longitudinal profiles of the flow at different time steps with
neglected, but many granular flows in nature are a mix-
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Proposed Landslide Susceptibility Map of Canada
Based on GIS
Marı́a José Domı́nguez-Cuesta and Peter T. Bobrowsky
Abstract
Landslides are especially damaging in Canada and despite their extensive occurrence, the
exact location of instability is not homogeneous across the country and depends on several
factors. Based on clear evidence it is known that there is a wide range in the scale and
diversity of landslide environments, especially as they pertain to landslide problems.
A proposed 1:6 million scale landslide susceptibility map of Canada is presented in this
study as a first approximation for those individuals interested in pursuing more detailed
investigations. The final map has been constructed based primarily on GIS, by considering
digital layers of relevant national information including: slope angle, aspect, precipitation,
permafrost, surficial geology, vegetation, distance to rivers, distance to coast (lakes and
oceans) and bedrock lithology. These variables have been categorized into several classes
depending on their greater or lesser favourability to influence slope instabilities. The values
assigned to each class are not equal for the whole country and vary depending on the region
considered (Canadian Shield, Hudson Bay Lowlands, or the remaining area).
Keywords
Landslide Susceptibility Canada GIS
Introduction order of $200 to $400 million annually (Clague and

Bobrowsky 2010).
Canada, the second largest country in the world (close to 10 Landslide research in the country is quite extensive but
million km2), supports significant environmental diversity most studies in Canada deal with site specific occurrences or
and is affected by a great variety of natural hazards. Of all regional assessments (e.g. Blais-Stevens et al. 2011; Quinn
the geophysical hazards, landslides are especially damaging et al. 2010; Jaboyedoff et al. 2009). Only recently has atten-
in terms of both mortality and economic costs. According to tion been directed towards pan-Canadian inventories and
Evans (1999), during the past 150 years, more individuals national slope instability issues (Grignon and Bobrowsky
have died in Canada from landslides than all other natural 2005; Grignon et al. 2004). Even where detailed studies
hazards combined. Moreover, landslides are known to occur have been completed, it is clear that the heterogeneity of
across the country and are estimated to cost Canadians on the terrain conditions, relief, precipitation and other factors in
the country preclude attempts at simple generalizations.
Although the earthquake hazard in Canada is well
M.J. Domı́nguez-Cuesta (*) documented at a national scale, the absence of such a syn-
Geology Department, University of Oviedo, C/ Arias de Velasco s/n, thesis for landslide hazards has remained a serious gap in
33005 Oviedo, Spain
efforts to effectively communicate and educate the broader
population on various landslide related issues. In response to
P.T. Bobrowsky
Geological Survey of Canada, 601 Booth St., Ottawa ON K1A 0E8,
this clear need for landslide data relevant at a national scale,
Canada the objective of this paper is to introduce a landslide

376 M.J. Domı́nguez-Cuesta and P.T. Bobrowsky
susceptibility map of Canada. The map is based on multiple Derived Digital Terrain Models Creation
data layers (e.g. geology, relief, etc.) within a GIS platform
and tailored by reliance on expert knowledge. The GIS platform allows one to generate other digital
models from the DEM by using different mathematic
algorithms. For example, a Digital Slope Model (DSM)
(Fig. 2a) and a Digital Aspect Model (DAM) (Fig. 2b),
Methodology
have been constructed through GIS based on the original
DEM. Both of these derivative maps have the same resolu-
The methodology used in this work includes the following
tion (1 km2 pixel value) as the original DEM upon which
several steps: (1) GIS database creation and digital data
they are based.
layers collection, (2) derived Digital Terrain Models crea-
tion, (3) relief differentiation of large areas in the country,
(4) landscape reclassification, (5) assignment of susceptibil-
Relief Differentiation of Large Areas in the
ity ranking for each data layer based on large areas and
Country
variable distribution, and (6) final data information analysis,
cross correlation and construction of the susceptibility
Existing knowledge of slope instability type, style and dis-
model.
tribution for all of Canada suggests that for this analysis we
can distinguish a few large areas by considering regional
variations in landslide attributes. For the purposes of this
GIS Database Creation and Digital Data Layers work, four substantially large regions are recognized: (1) the
Collection vast territory (> 4 millions km2) occupied by the Canadian
Shield (CS), a very stable environment where instability
A digital database was created with a Geographical Informa- problems are not as abundant as in other areas; (2) an area
tion System (GIS) (ArcGIS v. 9.2 ESRI), which allows one up to 300,000 km2 located in the middle of the country,
to organize information in georeferenced shapes and rasters. directly south of the Hudson Bay (Hudson Bay lowlands,
Vector data stored in the database consist of several HBL). Finally, the remaining terrain has been distinguished
thematic layers (Fig. 1a–h) comprising precipitation, perma- between: (3) the areas where the slope is less than 1 as
frost distribution, surficial geology, vegetation, bedrock interpreted by 1 km2 pixels (low relief areas, L) and (4) those
lithology, rivers and coasts (lakes and oceans). These data parts of the country where the slope is greater than 1 are
represent parameters that influence slope stability in Canada considered as high relief areas (H).
to varying degrees. Unfortunately the accuracy, precision
and reliability of the data used are not equal, not systematic
and cannot be evaluated for reliability. For example, the Landscape Reclassification
surficial geology database was published at a large scale
with detailed polygonal information and is therefore quite After compiling information for all of the mentioned
useful. This contrasts for instance to the permafrost layer variables into the GIS, it is possible to classify the Canadian
which is published at a smaller scale and the information landscape by taking into account the different distribution of
contained therein is quite generalized. We were not able to terrain elements across the country. For example, when
check the integrity of each data layer and simply relied on considering Precipitation, three classes were established:
the efforts of the original data compiler to ensure that the >3,000, 2,700–3,000 and <2,700 mm annual precipitation
best effort was put forward to release reliable information. (see Table 1).
Raster data consisted of a 1 km pixel value Digital Eleva- Five classes were distinguished for Permafrost: Contin-
tion Model (DEM) and other digital derived models. To uous, Extensive Discontinuous, Sporadic Discontinuous,
construct the final susceptibility map it was also necessary Isolated Patches and No Permafrost.
to transform the vector layers to raster format (1 km preci- Surficial Geology is divided into: Alluvial, Colluvial,
sion). This transformation to raster format facilitated faster Glacial, Glaciers, Glaciofluvial, Glaciolacustrine and lacus-
data manipulation, analysis and interpretation. trine, Glaciomarine and marine, Lacustrine, Marine, Rock
All of the data layers used in this synthesis were and Water. The original detailed landform classification
obtained from various agencies, departments and ministry used by the authors was simplified into these categories to
websites hosted in Canada. Several of the sources are open facilitate GIS manipulation and generalization.
to public access, whereas some of the information resides With respect to Vegetation cover data layer, 11 classes
within the data confines of the Geological Survey of have been distinguished: Broadleaf Forest, Coniferous For-
Canada. est, Cropland, Forest land/Shrub land, Grassland, Mixed
Proposed Landslide Susceptibility Map of Canada Based on GIS 377
Fig. 1 Layers stored in the GIS database: (a) precipitation, (b) permafrost distribution, (c) bedrock geology, (d) surficial geology, (e) vegetation,
(f) rivers, (g) coast (oceans and lakes) and (h) elevation
The same criterion was applied to create a layer based on

Distance from Rivers dividing these into three classes: <1,
1–3 and 3–5 km from rivers. The reason for these classes is
due to the minimum pixel size of 1 km2 and the need to
include at least some of the tributary valleys in the assess-
ment which lie beyond 1 km in distance from the primary
channel.
The Digital Slope Model was reclassified into three
classes <1, 1–18, 18–30 and >30 . The selection of these
intervals is based on the commonly observed slope values
for triggering different types of instability processes.
And finally, with respect to Aspect, this was simplified
into three classes: North, South and Flat areas. North
includes the areas facing between 270 and 360 as well as
0 –90 whereas South are those slopes facing 90–270 faced
areas. Flat areas are self explanatory. At this scale of DEM it
was not possible to divide the aspect into smaller categories.
Assignment of Susceptibility Ranking for Each

Data Layer Based on Large Areas and Variables
Distribution
To establish the susceptibility ranking of specific data layers,

expert opinion was obtained during a workshop at which
GSC landslide experts relied on their personal experience
and professional knowledge as input to the attribute and
parameter relevance regarding landslide hazards.
Attributes within each parameter were assessed and clas-
sified (semi-quantitatively) according to six categories of
significance (1-low to 6-high).
These categories vary depending on which one of the
Fig. 2 Derived digital terrain models: (a) slope, (b) aspect
large areas previously defined was considered: (1) the Cana-
dian Shield, (2) the Hudson Bay Lowlands, and (3) the
Forest, Snow/Ice, Tundra, Urban and Built-up, Wetland/ remaining Canadian territory for Low and High relief terrain
Shrubland and Water. Vegetation type as well as presence/ (Fig. 3). The H and L relief terrain are not shown on this
absence plays an important role regarding root strength, image given the size of the map representation. As a result
water absorption, etc. in relation to slope stability. three susceptibility ranking tables have been constructed.
The Bedrock Geology data base was also considered, but Susceptibility values shown in Table 1 have been applied
given the lack of lithology specifics which could prove to the three areas.
useful for geotechnical interpretation, we could only recog- The Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) and the Canadian
nize two key areas (in the lowland region) where surficial Shield (CS) are recognized as special areas from a landslide
cover is thin and bedrock influences slope hazards: the susceptibility point of view. These two regions are relatively
Canadian Shield and the Hudson Bay Lowlands. For the flat areas, with thin drift cover so that instabilities in these
rest of the country, the drift thickness is more significant two regions are linked to those conditions where there is
and has greater influence for slope instability (this does not some slope, and usually close to rivers or coast. However,
apply in the “highlands” regions of Canada). distance to water bodies alone was insufficient and the
Distance from Coast (oceans and lakes) has been con- presence of key surficial deposits was also considered
sidered by creating coverage of three classes: <1, 1–2 and (glaciolacustrine and lacustrine, glaciomarine and marine,
2–3 km from coast. This was based on a 1 km2 pixel size and lacustrine and marine deposits).
the need to take into account tributaries that comprise all Susceptibility classes applied to HBL and CS are shown in
drainage basins but are not captured at the scale of resolution Tables 2 and 3. The reason other data attributes are not consid-
used. ered in the HBL and CS areas is because their susceptibility
Table 1 Susceptibility values applied to the Canadian landscape (H highlands, L lowlands, CS Canadian Shield, HBL Hudson Bay Lowlands)
(see text for explanation of acronyms)
Susceptibility ranking
1 2 3 4 5 6
Slope <1 L
1 –18 H
18 –30 H
>30 H
Aspect North HL
South HL
Flat HL
Total annual PPT >3,000 mm HL
2,700–3,000 HL
<2,700 HL
Permafrost Continuous HL
Extensive discontinuous HL
Sporadic discontinuous HL
Isolated patches HL
No permafrost HL
Surficial geology Alluvial HL
Colluvial HL
Colluvial deposits HL
Glacial deposits HL
Glaciers
Glaciofluvial deposits HL
Glaciolacustrine and lacustrine deposits CS HBL H L
Glaciomarine and marine deposits CS HBL H L
Lacustrine deposits CS HBL H L
Marine deposits CS HBL H L
Rock L H
Water
Broadleaf forest HL
Coniferous forest HL
Vegetation (e.g. Landuse) Cropland HL
Forest land/Shrub land HL
Grassland HL
Mixed forest HL
Snow/Ice
Tundra HL
Urban and built-up HL
Wetland/Shrubland HL
Water
Distance from rivers <1 km HL
1–3 km HL
3–5 km HL
Distance from coast <1 km HL
1–2 km HL
2–3 km HL
Distance from lakes <1 km HL
1–2 km HL
2–3 km HL
ranking by experts was generally low (for example 2 or less for scale but was considered. The only other data layer of signifi-
Aspect, and 3 or less for the other categories). Distance from cance according to the experts was Surficial Geology where
rivers, coast and lakes was too small to be illustrated at this HBL and CS would score 3 or greater.
Table 3 Susceptibility values applied to Hudson Bay Lowlands terri-

tory (See Table 2 for explanation of acronyms SG1and SG2)
SG1 SG2
Distance from rivers <1 km HBL HBL
1–3 km HBL HBL
3–5 km HBL HBL
>5 km HBL HBL HBL HBL
Distance from coast <1 km HBL HBL
1–2 km HBL HBL
2–3 km HBL HBL
Distance from lakes <1 km HBL HBL
1–2 km HBL HBL
2–3 km HBL HBL
in the final map, a manual manipulation to the final map

Fig. 3 Large areas distinguished in this study. CS Canadian Shield,
HBL Hudson Bay Lowlands, Rest remaining Canadian territory
results was employed in a few locations where necessary. As
an example of one post analysis correction, several lakes in
the province Quebec were misclassified as glaciers in the
Table 2 Susceptibility values applied to the Canadian Shield area original data layer used in this analysis. This type of input
(SG1 Alluvial or Colluvial or Glacial or Glaciofluvial deposits or error by the original authors was not recognized by us until
Rocks, SG2 Glaciolacustrine or Lacustrine or Glaciomarine or Marine
after the final map was generated and was corrected manu-
deposits)
ally to reduce further propagation of error.
SG1 SG2
Distance from rivers <1 km CS CS
1–3 km CS CS
3–5 km CS CS Results and Discussion
>5 km CS CS CS CS
Distance from coast <1 km CS CS The main result of this work is the completion of the first
1–2 km CS CS national scale (1:6 million) landslide susceptibility map for
2–3 km CS CS Canada. This map illustrates the significant variability that
>3 km CS CS CS CS exists across the country with respect to the likelihood of
Distance from lakes <1 km CS CS
slope instability (Fig. 4).
1–2 km CS CS
The final map provides a “first approximation” character-
2–3 km CS CS
ization of landslide susceptibility for the diverse terrain
>3 km CS CS CS CS
scattered across Canada by relying on a hot to cold (red to
green) legend to illustrate the potential for landslide threat.
Final Data Information Analysis, Cross At this scale of analysis and presentation, the map is most
Correlation and Construction of the useful in demonstrating regional trends.
Susceptibility Model In general, the most susceptibility terrains are located in
western Canada. That is consistent with the known distribu-
After classifying all the digital layers as shown in Tables 1, tion of high relief and mountainous areas.
2, and 3, we applied the designations to the entire Canadian The St Lawrence River Valley corridor, in southeastern
landscape. This procedure leads to the derivation of the final Canada is another area that displays a greater number of
susceptibility map. The result consists of all polygons orange and red pixels on the map. Again this is expected
displaying a susceptibility value varying from 1 to 6. There given the presence of Leda clays and historic record of
was no need for a complex weighted algorithm since all instability in the region (Quinn et al. 2010).
layers and parameters were already weighted in their classi- The third region of high potential corresponds to the river
fication. Data layers were simply overlaid and the pixel with valleys and glaciolacustrine and lacustrine sediments present
the highest score superseded all other scores. in the prairies of west-central Canada.
Upon completion of the map, visual inspection of the In general, the rest of the country could be considered to be of
polygons indicated occasional errors that existed in the orig- lower landslide susceptibility, although local and site specific
inal data layers. To minimize propagation of such mistakes assessments cannot be reliably extracted from such a national
Fig. 4 Landslide susceptibility map of Canada
scale map and therefore more diligent study and interpretation inventory of Canada and therefore are not suitable for any
on a case by case basis is advised for detailed needs. model validation efforts. Moreover, most studies employing
From a methodological point of view, the procedure validation tests are not actually testing the predictability of
applied in this work is based considerably on expert knowl- their models but rather the accuracy of their auto-correlated
edge. The quality assessment of collected data is essential in algorithms.
a susceptibility model based on GIS (Trigila et al. 2010).
Most of the problems or inconsistencies detected on the final Conclusions
map are due to errors and inaccuracies of the original data The methodology and baseline digital data layers (avail-
layers. For example, the limits of the coast, lakes and rivers ability, quality, resolution) employed in any susceptibil-
are different in each layer. This discrepancy could result in a ity map strongly influence the final product. Different
red susceptibility color appearing in the middle of a lake. methods will generate different final maps using the
The same problem appears related to presence/absence and same primary data. With respect to the present suscepti-
position of glaciers or water bodies. In the final map several bility map it is important to highlight that much of the
known large glaciers are not shown because they were not Cordillera, parts of prairies and the St. Lawrence River
part of the original database. valley support the most landslide susceptible terrains.
The current landslide inventory of Canada comprises That area corresponding to the Canadian Shield and the
some 22,000 unverified points collected with bias. These Hudson Bay Lowlands supports the lowest landslide
data are not statistically representative of the true landslide susceptibilities.
Acknowledgments The authors are very grateful to the Geological Grignon A, Bobrowsky P (2005) Empowering scientists, planners and
Survey of Canada landslide specialists who participated in the process the public to reduce landslide losses: a simplified web interface to
of classifying the various data layers and Andrée Blais-Stevens for access a national landslide database in Canada. Geophys Res Abstr
critical review. This activity was supported by the Public Safety Geo- 7:05511, European Geosciences Union
science Program of NRCan. This is GSC Contribution #20110109. Grignon A, Bobrowsky P, Coultish T (2004) Landslide database man-
agement philosophy in the Geological Survey of Canada. Geo-
engineering for the society and its environment. In: Proceedings
of the 57th Canadian geotechnical conference and the 15th joint
References CGS-IAAH conference, Québec, 24–27 Oct 2004
Jaboyedoff M, Couture R, Locat P (2009) Structural analysis of Turtle
Blais-Stevens A, Hermanns RL, Jermyn C (2011) A 36Cl age determi- Mountain (Alberta) using digital elevation model: toward a progres-
nation for Mystery Creek rock avalanche and its implications in the sive failure. Geomorphology 103(1):5–16
context of hazard assessment, British Columbia, Canada. Quinn PE, Hutchinson DJ, Diederichs MS, Rowe RK (2010) Regional-
Landslides. doi:10.1007/s10346-011-0261-0 scale landslide susceptibility mapping using the weights of evidence
Clague JC, Bobrowsky PT (2010) Natural hazards in Canada. Geosci method: An example applied to linear infrastructure. Can J Civil
Can 37(1):17–37 Eng 37(8):905–927
Evans S (1999) Landslide disaster in Canada 1840–1998, Geological Trigila A, Iadanza C, Spizzichino D (2010) Quality assessment of the
Survey of Canada, Open File no 3712. Geological Survey of Italian landslide inventory using GIS processing. Landslides
Canada, Ottawa 7:455–470
Statistic Versus Deterministic Method for Landslide
Susceptibility Mapping
Iuliana Armas, Florica Stroia, and Laura Giurgea
Abstract
The present work aims to assess the landslide susceptibility of a hilly area, using two
methods: the weight of evidence statistical method (WOE) that is based on bivariate
statistical analysis and the deterministic approach based on the infinite slope model.
To document the efficiency of this quantitative methods, a landslide prone area along
Prahova Subcarpathian Valley was chosen, where landslide hazard interacts with human
settlement and activities.
The Landslide susceptibility map derived from the WOE method has been compared
with that produced from the deterministic method and the results analyzed. The values
obtained were also in good agreement with the field observations.
Results show that the main controlling factors in the evolution of landslides are the slope
gradient, saturation condition and lithology. Beside these, factors like morphography (slope
aspect and flow direction) or human intervention (land use, roads, buildings) can interfere.
Keywords
Landslide susceptibility map GIS Weight of evidence statistical method Infinite slope
model Romanian Subcarpathian area
Introduction movement over a period of time (Terzaghi 1950; Varnes

1978, 1984; Turner and Schuster 1996; Cruden and Varnes
Landslides are related to erosion-prone areas, being common 1996; Thomson and Turk 1997).
processes in alpine regions with steep, unstable slopes. In this paper, landslides are understood as a “downslope
Most slopes appear stable and static, but they are actually movement of a soil or rock mass occurring on surface or
dynamic, evolving systems. The important variables in rupture” (Highland and Bobrowsky 2008).
classifying down slope movements are their mechanisms In the romanian Subcarpathian area, landslides have
(movement types), the nature of the displaced material the biggest impact on human communities and on natural
(material type), amount of water present, as well as informa- ecosystems (Balteanu et al. 1996; Cioaca 1996; Cioaca et al.
tion on their activity (state, distribution, style), i.e. the rate of 1996; Grecu 1999, 2002; Armaş et al. 2003, 2005; Stroia
et al. 2005; Armaş and Damian 2006).
For example, in the study area of Breaza town, in summer
1997 landslides affected 1,100 households, with 8 houses
I. Armas (*) being totally destroyed.
Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, 1, Bd. Nicolae Therefore the first necessary step for landslide risk
Balcescu, Bucharest, Romania
management and land use planning is to properly demarcate
the disaster prone areas through landslide susceptibility
F. Stroia L. Giurgea
Faculty of Geology and Geophysics, University of Bucharest, 6, Traian
mapping (Aleotti and Chowdhury 1999).
Vuia, Bucharest, Romania

384 I. Armas et al.
Susceptibility maps reflect the relative spatial probability

of landslide occurrence and do not explicitly incorporate the
temporal aspect of movement.
The present work aims to assess the landslide susceptibility
of a hilly area, using two methods: the weight of evidence
statistical method (WOE) that is based on bivariate statistical
analysis and the deterministic approach based on the infinite
slope model.
Study Area
To document the efficiency of this quantitative methods, a

landslide prone area along Prahova Subcarpathian Valley
was chosen, where landslide hazard interacts with human
settlement and activities (Fig. 1). The wide span of the
Prahova Valley when emerging from the mountain zone,
together with the terraced Subcarpathian slopes, are basi-
cally involved in the orientation and type of slope dynamics
shaped by slope, fragmentation and exposure conditions.
The great number of landslides along the Subcarpathion
Prahova Valley mirrors the particular combination of factors
that render the slopes unstable. The landslides along the
Prahova Valley represent a continuous or occasional reacti-
vation stage, with periods of relative stability being
accompanied by creeping on the active steep slopes and by
the occurrence of crosswise cracks in the body of the slide or
running parallel to the scarps.
The Breaza locality lies on the righthandside of the
Prahova River, mainly on the surface of terrace II, which is
best preserved.
From a geological point of view, the study area is
represented by a large syncline – the Breaza – Buciumeni Fig. 1 Study area
syncline with a west to east orientation.
Miocen-Pliocen-Lower Pleistocen molasses deposits
(clearing, buildings etc.), landslides affecting households,
formed the upper part of Breaza-Buciumeni syncline. High
streets and pasturelands.
vulnerability consist of on stratification and tectonic
Samples taken from outcrops where tested in the geotechni-
backgrounds vulnerability. There are a succesion of sedimen-
cal laboratory. Characteristics like: grain size distribution,
tary rocks, marl-clay, sandstone intercalations, sands and
plasticity index, consistence index, activity index, share strange
gravels. The Breaza terrace scarp develops on marls and
parameters – cohesion and internal friction angle (residual and
clays with intercalations of thin permeable (terrace deposits,
pick values), are established. All this parameters together with
sands) and impermeable strata (fat clays) and gypsum horizons.
the slop topography are useful in slope stability computation.
There are some water springs on slopes. The strata space
position is in concordance with the slop surface and has a
high degree of instability, undergoing mass movements of
rotational type. Mixtures of adverse geological conditions Method
such as weak soil or rock and potential slip planes on steep
slopes with torrential rains, heavy snowfall, will continue to From the beginning of the 1980s, the enormous potential
produce landslides regardless of human activities. of statistical tools based on GIS technology have led to a
On the natural factors which lead to instability we can ad growing interest in the topic of landslide susceptibility
high vulnerability due by human activity. A high risk is assessment and many quantitative approaches have been
visible wherever man’s actions in the landscape are present developed worldwide.
Statistic Versus Deterministic Method for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping 385
In this research, we applied a quantitative ‘data driven’ In this research, the infinite slope model, based on an
method used to combine datasets, known as weight of infinite slope form of the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion,
evidence (WOE) modeling method. This is a statistical was integrated with a raster-based GIS (ILWIS) (1). An
approach that compares the spatial distribution of landslides infinite slope is any line that stays fixed at one constant
with the predictive variables that are being considered to be x-axis coordinate, making the change along the x-axis 0.
important and mutually independent for the occurrences of
past events. c0 þ ðg þ mgwÞz cos2 b tan j
FS ¼ (1)
In this study, we used the log–linear form of the Bayes- gz sin b cos b
ian probability model because weights are easier to under-
stand and interpret compared to the probability where FS is the factor of safety, c’ is the effective cohesion
expression. Relevant thematic maps representing various (N/m2), g is a unit weight of a soil (N/m3), m is the ratio
parameters (e.g., slope, aspect, lithology, groundwater between the underground water level and the effective soil
table, soil texture, distances from built environment, depth (zw/z), gw is a unit weight of water (N/m3), z is the soil
land use and geotechnical background) that are related to depth (m), zw is the underground water level (m), b is the
landslide activity have been generated using GIS slope surface inclination ( ), and ’ is the effective angle of
techniques. Based on the chi-square test, the selected shearing resistance ( ).
independent predictive variables were slope gradient, The outcomes were maps of factor of safety (FS) on a
slope aspect and soil thickness. Soil thickness was resample 10 m pixel level. Soil properties were represented
measured through 36-detailed point measurements uni- by soil thickness, unit weight density, and cohesion and
formly distributed in the research area (Parichi et al. friction angle. Adding the depth of the piezometric line
2006). The WOE method was applied on active, rotational and applying the stability model in different scenarios of
landslides (see Fig. 3). hydrological conditions extended the analysis.
For a particular landslide susceptibility predictive factor Figure 2 shows the methodological flowchart of the two
weights were calculated based on: methods.
• The probability of the known predictive factor being
present with landslide events
present without landslide events Analysis and Results
absent with landslide events Table 1 shows the weights and contrast for the selected
• The probability of the known predictive factor being variables units included in the WOE approach.
absent without landslide events. As higher value for W+, as stronger is the positive
The final susceptibility logit map was obtained by correlation between landslide occurrence and the selected
combination of weights of selected conditionally indepen- predictive factor. High positive correlations to landslides are
dent predictive factors. obtained for 15–25 slope angle class. This category has also
The causes of many landslides and related types of down- a greater predictive power (C > 1). When C is approxi-
slope movement can be examined by studying relations mately 2, the correlation is very significant (Barbieri and
between driving forces and resisting forces. Cambuli 2009). The final weight for each variable was given
Deterministic framework involves analyzing specific by the sum of the positive weight and the negative weights of
sites in engineering terms. Slope stability is evaluated by the other classes. In this case, the most susceptible areas are
computing a safety factor – named also index of stability, the northern slopes with a 15–25 gradient, and 1 m soil
and defined as the ratio of the resisting forces to the driving thickness. From a geomorphological point of view, the most
forces. The index of stability is based on the appropriate susceptible sectors correspond to the scarp of terrace II and
geotechnical model. The calculation of the safety factor, F, the slopes of the upper terraces (Fig. 3).
requires topographical data, data on shear strength The landslide susceptibility deterministic approach was
parameters (cohesion and angle of internal friction) and tested on two simulated situations: when the ratio between
information on underground water table. Decisions must be the underground water level and the soil depth was 0 and 1
made on whether to use peak shear strength values or (e.g., under dry and saturated conditions, see Fig. 4).
residual shear strength values (or values in between) for As a general aspect, safety factor is decreasing when
specific parts of the slip surface (Chowdhury 1976; slope gradient gets higher and when assuming fully saturated
Chowdhury and Bertoldi 1977). soil. The morphological levels act as stability factors.
386 I. Armas et al.
Fig. 2 Methodological
flowchart: (a) The weight of
evidence (WOE) method and
(b) the deterministic method
Table 1 The weights and contrast values calculated for the selected predictive factors
Classes of predictive factors Weight Weight + Contrast value (C)
Slope gradient
0–3 0.49 2.34 2.83
3–7 0.13 0.60 0.73
7–15 0.27 0.58 0.85
15–25 0.31 1.42 1.73
25–35 0.05 1.22 1.27
35–45 0.007 0.82 0.83
45–55 0.0001 0.13 0.13
55–65 0.0001 2.28 2.28
65–75 0.00008 4.31 4.31
75–90 0.00001 2.77 2.77
Slope aspect
NE 0.16 0.36 0.52
E 0.08 0.10 0.18
SE 0.06 0.44 0.51
S (+flat) 0.09 1.63 1.72
SV 0.02 5.47 5.49
V 0.01 1.68 1.69
NV 0.006 0.32 0.32
N 0.01 0.87 0.89
Soil thickness
0.6 m 0.0003 0.17 0.17
1m 0.74 0.55 1.29
1.6 m 0.08 0.22 0.31
2m 0.17 2.19 2.37
>2.6 m 0.08 7.65 7.74
Statistic Versus Deterministic Method for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping 387
susceptibility mapping. The values obtained were also in

good agreement with the field observations.
As a general aspect we can conclude that none of the
method is recommended as the most suitable, this
depending very much on the quality of the input-data,
the how large the study area is and the research objective.
The slope stability model can give more reliable
answers, but it is often affected by significant uncertainties
associated to the variability of input variables and the
uncertainties associated with the mechanisms of failure.
Therefore there is difficult to apply it on large areas
and this method is more suitable for research data at
detailed scales.
In the statistical WOE approach, the major difficulty
consists in systematically identifying and assessing
the different predictive factors related to landsliding
(Carrara 1988). An advantage of this method is that the
researcher can validate the importance of each indepen-
dent predictive variable and decide on the final input
maps. Another advantage is that the results can be applied
to areas currently free of landslides but where conditions
may exist for landslide susceptibility.
Fig. 3 Combination of weights of selected variables themes in a

landslide susceptibility map. In yellow are the active landslides sites References
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Two Integrated Models Simulating Dynamic Process
of Landslide Using GIS
Chunxiang Wang, Hideaki Marui, Gen Furuya, and Naoki Watanabe
Abstract
Two major movement modes of slope failures: landslides and debris-flows are simulated by
two integrated models using GIS to represent the dynamic process across 3D terrains.
Landslides occur when earth material moves downhill after failing along a shear zone.
Debris flows can be differentiated from landslides by the pervasive, fluid-like deformation
of the mobilized material. The formation of debris flows most often occurs as a result of a
landslide partially or completely mobilizing into a debris flow. GIS-based revised Hovland’s
3D limit equilibrium model is used to simulate the movement and stoppage of a landslide.
The 3D factor of safety will be calculated step by step during the sliding process simulation.
Stoppage is defined by the factor of safety much greater than one and the velocity equal zero.
GIS-based depth-averaged 2D numerical model is used to predict the runout distance and
inundated area of a debris flow. The simulation displays the propagation and deposition and
deposition of a debris flow across the complex topography. The two GIS-based integrated
models are able to provide effective tools for hazard mapping and risk assessment.
Keywords
Landslide Debris flow 3D limit equilibrium model Depth-averaged GIS Simulation
Introduction models using GIS to represent the dynamic process across

three dimensional steep and irregular terrains. Landslides
Slope failures are a wide variety of processes that result in occur when earth material moves downhill after failing
the downward and outward movement of slope-forming along a shear zone. Debris flows can be differentiated from
materials. The materials may move by sliding, flowing, landslides by the pervasive, fluid-like deformation of the
falling, toppling, or spreading. The various types of slope mobilized material. The formation of debris flows most
failures can be differentiated by the kinds of material often occurs as a result of a landslide partially or completely
involved and the mode of movement. A necessary require- mobilizing into a debris flow. GIS-based revised Hovland’s
ment of a quantitative hazard assessment concerned with 3D limit equilibrium model is used to simulate the move-
mobile landslides, is to predict the character and extent of ment and stoppage of a landslide. In this research, sliding is
their motion. defined by a slip surface which cuts through the slope,
In this paper, two common types of slope failures: causing the mass of earth to move above it. The factor of
landslides and debris-flows are simulated by two integrated safety will be calculated step by step during the sliding
process simulation. Stoppage is defined by the factor of
safety much greater than one and the velocity equal zero.
C. Wang (*) H. Marui G. Furuya N. Watanabe GIS-based depth-averaged 2D numerical model is used to
Research Institute for Natural Hazards and Disaster Recovery, Niigata predict the runout distance and inundated area of a debris
University, Nishi-ku, Ikarashi ni-no-cho 8050, Niigata City 950-2181,
Japan
flow. As raster grid networks of digital elevation model in
e-mail: [email protected] GIS can be used as the finite difference mesh, the continuity

390 C. Wang et al.
and momentum equations are solved numerically using the Fig. 1 Possible sliding directions
135 90
finite difference method. The simulation displays the in a cell 45
propagation and deposition and deposition of a debris
180 0
flow across the complex topography. The two GIS-based i
integrated models are able to provide effective tools for
hazard mapping and risk assessment. 225 315
270
3D LEM-Based Sliding Process Simulation

andj,i is the number of the row and column of the grid in the
Using GIS
range of slope failure. For one grid column, hji is the height
of the sliding body, A is the area of the slip surface, yji is the
LEM-Based Sliding Model
normal angle of slip surface. yavr is the apparent dip of main
inclination direction of landslide.
All slope failures have a 3D geometry, which varies in
If 3D safety factor of a landslide is smaller than 1.0, the
space even along a short distance. For a 3D slope problem,
landslide may be dangerous in the future. Therefore, it is
the stability analysis relates to the complicated spatial
important to evaluate the landslide hazard and to predict the
topographical distribution, strata, shear strength, and/or
landslide travel distance. When the slope fails, based on the
pore-water pressure conditions. The column-based limit
revised Hovland’s column-based slope stability analysis
equilibrium methods have been widely used for developing
model, the sliding process simulation was done by sliding
a 3D model of slope stability analysis (Hovland 1977; Hungr
step by step until the 3D factor of safety was larger than 1.0.
1987; Hungr et al. 1989). GIS represents an ease way
In a raster-based digital elevation model (DEM) analysis,
and a common platform to manage all of the complicated
each cell has eight possible flow directions (left, right, up,
slope-related information. For a genuine slope failure mass,
down, plus the four diagonals), as show in Fig. 1. The
using the functions of GIS spatial analysis, all input data (such
flow direction of a cell is expressed in degrees: left ¼ 0 ,
as elevation, inclination, slope, groundwater, strata and slip
up ¼ 90 , right ¼ 180 , down ¼ 270 ; and the diagonals:
surface) involved in the 3D safety factor calculation can be
45 , 135 , 225 , 315 .
available for each grid raster cell, while all slope-related data
are in the grid-based form. By inputting these grid data into a
deterministic model of slope stability, a value for the safety
Sliding Simulation of Maoping Landslide
factor can be calculated. Actually, the 3D grid column,
corresponding to each grid cell, is used to represent all the
Maoping landslide represents a past slope failure sliding
strata data, ground surface and slip surface. GIS-based
mass located in Qiangjiang Geheyan Hydropower reservoir
computational implementation of spatial 3D slope stability
in China (Fig. 2a). The possible sliding mass was the subject
analysis has been developed by Xie et al. (2006), in which
of a detailed investigation through site surveying and its
Hovland’s column-based model, 3D extension of the Biship’s
range is illustrated in Fig. 2b. The 3D geological geometry
model, 3D extension of the Janbu’s model and revised
and slip surface are summarized in terms of eight geological
Hovland’s column-based model have been presented.
engineering sections, of which the plan distribution is also
In this paper, the revised Hovland’s column-based model
illustrated in Fig. 2b.
is used to simulate the sliding process when slope fails. The
The range of sliding mass is represented as a polygon
3D safety factor can be expressed as (1):
dataset (Fig. 2b), with the digital elevation model
PP dataset of ground surface converted from computer aided
ðcA þ ðhji g cos yji wji Þ tan fÞ cos yavr
j i design data of scale 1/2,500 and the 3D distribution of slip
SF3d ¼ PP (1) surface integrated through eight geological engineering
hji g sin yavr cos yavr
j i sections.
The geomechanical parameters of the upper zones over
Where, c is the cohesion, f is the friction angle, g is the unit the slip surface are that the effective cohesion c, the effective
weight, wji is the pore water pressure on the slip surface, frictional angle f, and the unit weight g are 40 kN/m2, 15 ,
Two Integrated Models Simulating Dynamic Process of Landslide Using GIS 391
stable. Figure 3 shows the dynamic sliding process and the

3D factor of safety in each step.
2D Depth-Averaged-Model-Based Flowing
Simulation Using GIS
2D Depth-Averaged Governing Equations
Debris slides may become extremely rapid debris flows as

the displaced masses lose cohesion, gains water and
encounters steeper slopes. This type of failure is the most
dangerous and destructive of all types of slope failures.
Many researchers have developed rheological models for
debris flows. Theses models can be classified as: Newtonian
model (Johnson 1970, Trunk et al. 1986, Hunt 1994),
Bingham model (Huang and Garcia 1997, Pastor et al.
2004), Herschel-Bulkley model (Laigle and Coussot 1997),
generalized viscoplastic model (Chen 1988), dilatant fluid
model (Takahashi 1991), and a Coulomb mixture model
(Iverson and Denlinger 2001). McDougall and Hungr
(2005) developed a depth-averaged model for the simulation
of rapid landslide motion across complex 3D terrain.
Pudasaini and Hutter (2003) presented a two-dimensional
depth-integrated theory for the gravity-driven free-surface
flow of a granular avalanche over an arbitrarily but gently
curved and twisted topography which is an important
extension of the original Savage and Hutter (1989) theory.
No single rheological model appears to be valid for all debris
flows and debris avalanches.
In this paper, the 2D depth-averaged constitutive
equations include the continuity equationpaper should start
with the title section which has a special single-column
formatting (see top of first page).
Fig. 2 Maoping landslide: (a) location in China (b) plan schematic @h @M @N

þ þ ¼0 (2)
@t @x @y
22 kN/m3, respectively. In the sliding simulation, the friction and the 2D equations of motion
angle of the slip surface is assumed to be unchanged, but the
slip surface is assumed to be non-cohesion (cohesion ¼ 0) @M @ ðMU Þ @ ðMV Þ
þa þa ¼
except in the initial 3D slope safety factor calculating @t @x @y
2 (3)
process. The initial 3D slope safety factor is 0.85, after @H @ M @2M
16 steps sliding (one step ¼ one raster cell size), its 3D gh þ ub þ 2 gh cos yx tan x
@x @x2 @y
factor of safety is 1.02 and the landslide mass becomes
392 C. Wang et al.
240 235 230 240 245
237 225 235 240

232
230 228 220 230 235
228 226 210 220 228
220 218 205 212 215
Fig. 4 Flow direction
@N @ ðNU Þ @ ðNV Þ
þa þa ¼
@t @x @y
2 (4)
@H @ N @2N
gh þ ub þ gh cos yy tan x
@y @x2 @y2
where M ¼ Uh and N ¼ Vh are the x and y components of

the flow flux; U and V are the x and y components of the
depth-averaged velocity; H is the height of the free surface;
h is the flow depth; yx and yy are the angle of inclination at
the bed along the x and y directions respectively; a and b are
the momentum correction factors; u ¼ m=rd is kinematic
viscosity,rd is the equivalent density of the debris mixture,
and rd ¼ rs vs þ rw vw , rs and rw are the densities of solid
grains and water, vs and vw are the volumetric concentrations
of solids particles and water in the mixture; and tan x is the
dynamic friction coefficient.
Numerical Scheme
Numerical models are organized on a grid cell basis. Within

a cell overland flow is routed along one flow direction.
The flow direction is the maximum downslope direction
which is determined from the raster-based DEM (Fig. 4).
The numerical solution is achieved using a finite difference
formulation based on the DEM grid. The governing
equations are approximated using leapfrog time-differencing.
A staggered grid approach is followed to evaluate the spatial
gradients of (2), (3), and (4). A forward difference scheme is
applied to discretize the linear terms, and a central difference
scheme is applied to discretize the nonlinear terms. The
method of adjusting the time step and mesh size is used to
prevent the appearance of numerical instability due to the use
of too large a time interval and mesh size.
The model outlined above has been coded into a numerical
model of general utility in ArcGIS. The code is written in
Visual Basic language and ArcObjects. ArcObjects is the
development environment of the desktop ArcGIS applications
(ArcMap, ArcCatalog & ArcScene). It is used to customize
Fig. 3 The dynamic sliding process
Debris avalanche initiation zone

Region of fatalities
Fig. 5 Aerial photograph of the disaster

Fig. 6 3D view of the study area with houses and roads
and extend ArcGIS using Visual Basic. All the input and
output data are processed in ArcGIS. Table 1 Material properties and parameters for simulation
r (kg/m3) a b m (Pa·s) g (m/s2) tan ’
2,200 1.25 1.0 0.11 9.8 0.6
Flowing Simulation of Minamata-Hougawachi
Debris Flow
2003). The disaster killed 15 people, and more than
On July 19–20, 2003, a short duration, high intensity rainfall 14 houses were either damaged or destroyed.
impacted Minamata City, Kumamoto prefecture, Japan. Based on a 1:2,500 scale topographic map a vector
This rainstorm triggered many landslides and debris flows contour line file is generated, with vertical spacing of 2 m.
(Nakazawa et al. 2003; Iwao 2003; Taniguchi 2003). The This file is converted to a Triangulated Irregular Network
slope failure and resultant debris flow at Hogawachi in (TIN) and subsequent DEM. The roads and streams are
Minamata was the largest and most damaging (Fig. 5). The drawn as polylines, and the homes as polygons (Fig. 6).
debris flow occurred 4.3 hours after the beginning of the In the simulation, as the square grid mesh is Dx ¼ Dy
rainstorm, at 4:20 a.m. on July 20, 2003, during the period of ¼ 2 m and the depth-averaged velocities are considered as
highest intensity. A moderately-sized landslide triggered the blunt, therefore, we have set a ¼ 1, b ¼ 1. Before running
debris flow about 1.5 km upslope of where the casualties the simulation, based on field investigation, the inundated
occurred. The maximum depth of the landslide is 9 m. area is 0.15 km2 and the average thickness of deposits is
The volume of sediment discharge plunging into the village assumed to be 3.5 m. Using these data and through iterative
of Hougawachi-Atsumari district, Minamata City, was calculations, the best-fit pair of tan x ¼ 0.4 and m ¼ 0.11
estimated to be 68,000 m3, and the velocity of debris flow are selected (Table 1).
was estimated to range from 2.9 to 23.5 m/s (Taniguchi
394 C. Wang et al.
Fig. 7 Debris flow developing and affected regions at different times ((a) 30s; (b) 50s; (c) 90s; (d) 110 s; (e) 150 s; (f) 170 s; (g) 190 s; (h) 210 s; (i) 230 s)
A time-lapse simulation of the dynamic progression and maps and improve ways for dealing with the risk of
deposition of the debris flow over 3-D terrain is illustrated landslides.
in Fig. 7. The simulation results show that it took about
170 s for the debris flow to travel 1,500 m along the References
channel, and the average flow velocity was 8.8 m/s. The
affected region can be displayed dynamically at different Chen C (1988) Generalized viscoplastic modeling of debris flow.
times. The simulation result is in good agreement with field J Hydraul Eng 114(3):237–258
observation. There are 15 homes inundated in the simula- Hovland HJ (1977) Three-dimensional slope stability analysis method.
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Using the Information System and Multi-Criteria
Analysis in the Geological Risk Management
in São Paulo
Eliene Coelho and Luciana Pascarelli
Abstract
Since 1980s the surveys space could not definitely follow the growth and the density
of favelas, and some communities started to trigger the first records of accidents in areas
hitherto stable. The mapping made in 2010 is today the largest geological-risk database
in the country. Today, all these information are included in the “Habisp”. Habisp is a
mapping system of precarious settlements in the city of Sao Paulo, which contains valuable
information to face the urban poverty. Poverty which is materialized in Sao Paulo in many
ways of informal settlements: slums, irregular settlements, tenement housing, temporary
housing and degraded sets. The Habisp stores, organizes, processes and produces high
quality geographic information, which serves as support for the technicians of the Housing
department in making decisions. The results have been making possible reassessment
and adjustment of the low-income intervention projects by the government, prioritizing
housing, social-educational infrastructure, and basic-sanitation actions in areas of greatest
susceptibility.
Keywords
Mapping Susceptibility Geographic information Priority
The Risk of Landslides in Large Urban Centers be occupied without the appropriate planning, and the
growing number of people affected by the landslides
Mass movement processes are natural and a part of the revealed that there was a considerable part and parcel of
cycle/depositional erosion responsible for determining the population living in risky settlements.
the scenery of the Earth’s surface. Nevertheless, when as In the city of São Paulo, the first tales of accidents of this
the result of a geological process there is an impact on nature are directly linked to the urban expansion recorded
human beings or their property, what comes to light is the since the beginning of the 1930s. According to Nogueira
concept of a geological accident, implying that besides (2002), the urban spot in the city grew from 355 to
the physical process some causes of instability also lead 1.370 km2 in approximately five decades. Due to the method
to the consequences observed. The first tales of accidents adopted by real estate speculation when it came to dividing
of this sort in the city of São Paulo relate to urban expansion. the land in the city, “urban vacuums” were generated and
More fragile areas, such as slopes and river banks began to subsequently occupied by shanty towns and irregular land
occupation. Areas of greater environmental fragility, such as
slopes and banks of streams also began to be occupied,
E. Coelho (*) above all at the end of the 1970s. At the end of the 1980s,
PMSP, São Paulo City Hall, Habisp, Sao Paulo, Brazil
there exists a record of the first accidents on slopes and in
the mid 1990s, these become ever more frequent and
L. Pascarelli
Consultancy Services and Technical Works Department, Sao Paulo less localized, revealing that a considerable part of the
City Hall, 425, Rua Libero Badaro, Brazil population occupies these areas of risk (Brasil 2007).

398 E. Coelho and L. Pascarelli
Table 1 Criteria to rank the degree of risk (simplified from the IPT – 2006)
Degree of
probability Description
R1 Slopes with little inclination (<17º), natural and on stable soils with low probability of having landslides. Absence of
indices of instability. This is the least critical condition
R2 Slopes with slight inclination with a medium probability of having a landslide. There is evidence already of incipient
instability. If the existing conditions are maintained, there is a slight probability that there will be destructive episodes
occurring during intense rainfall
R3 Inclined slopes (>30º) point towards a high potential for developing landslide processes. There is a large amount of
evidence regarding instability (cracks on the soils, levels of subsidence of the soil, etc.)
R4 Evidence of instability is expressive (quantity and magnitude). This is the most critical condition. Under such conditions, it
is highly probable that there will be destructive events during intense episodes of rainfall
instability observed, the parameters assessed ended up in

Mapping the Risk Areas in the City of São Paulo the creation of 1.179 risk sectors, with specific levels of
criticality according to Table 1.
At the end of the 1990s, geotechnical companies carried out More than a geotechnical survey, this broader mapping
an analysis of the risk on the slopes of 240 shanty towns, already carried out in Brazil focused exclusively on
identifying about 60 % of the situations at risk for landslides. settlement areas where the population’s social vulnerability
Although such information has been used for the planning was high. In these sites, any type of event, albeit the smallest
and execution of local interventions, activities to control ones could cause significant damage to the community,
and prevent such risks per se have been negligible for given their low perception of risk and limited ability to
about a decade (1993 to 2001), whilst at the same time the respond to the event and recover from it.
occupation of the hills grew significantly. Cartographic In real time, the data collected on the field, which included
registries and those of occurrences were also rare, making the perimeters of the areas analyzed, was entered into the
it impossible to carry out any sort of planning with the Habisp system used the São Paulo City Hall since 2006.
necessary efficacy.
In 2010, the City Hall of São Paulo, along with the
Institute for Technological Research (IPT) came to the
conclusion of the need for “Analysis and risk mapping The Habisp System
associated to landslides in the areas of slopes and the
banks of rivers and streams in shanty towns in the São Habisp is an information system that works through the web,
Paulo municipality” IPT/SMSP (2010). More than a geo- with the ability to store and process alphanumeric and
technical survey, the mapping geared its focus on the areas geographic information. The focus is popular housing and
of precarious occupation, where the population’s vulnerabil- the “loci” are the shanty towns, irregular land settlements,
ity was the steepest. In such sites, any type of event, even the tenements or slums and housing enterprises conceived for
minor ones could entail significant damage for the commu- the population that lives in those areas.
nity, vis-a-vis their low perception of risk and the inability to To understand how it operates, it is necessary to explore
set forth a speedy response and recovery. some conceptual issues regarding the importance of Infor-
The risk estimates were analyzed quantitatively, based on mation and Communication Technology (ICT) in our
field observations, integrating the analysis parameters present day society. It is also necessary to refer to the issue
contained on a risk card, with the support of aerial images. of making decisions, the construction of indicators and
The 407 areas investigated were subdivided into risk their content, objectives and the dynamism relating to the
sectors, due to the fact that the characteristics of the land problem of which it is a part: popular housing.
and above all of the occupations posed enormous variations Habisp arose from an initiative to draw up a strategic plan
within a single shanty town. For each of the sectors, what for social housing, within the realm of the project with
was evaluated was (1) natural parameters referring to the Alliance with Cities, and throughout the studies, it turned
type of soil topography, natural structures that conditioned into a proposal to draft a Municipal Housing Plan (MHP)
land movements, typology of water courses and type and (Prefeitura do Municı́pio de São Paulo. Plano Municipal de
breadth of vegetation and (2) occupational parameters Habitação PMH 2009–2024). Without the Habisp and the
such as the level of interference in the land, the presence of System of Priorities, both planning instruments, the MHP
basic infrastructure to supply water, garbage collection and would not have attained its present day level of sophistica-
sewage treatment, the condition of public roads and structure tion and detail. The proposal encompasses goals and
of the homes themselves. Additionally to the signs of objectives to service housing needs until the year 2024,
Using the Information System and Multi-Criteria Analysis in the Geological Risk. . . 399
Fig. 2 Picture of the Jaguaré Slum (Archives of the Municipal Housing

Secretariat – Sehab. City Hall of the São Paulo Municipality)
Fig. 1 Picture of the first page on the Habisp System (Source:

(Prefeitura do Municı́pio de São Paulo. Plano Municipal de Habitação
The Housing Problem in the Large
PMH 2009–2024)) Urban Centers
Housing, in a very broad sense, is frequently deemed to be

including the cost for urbanization interventions and land key for the problem of poverty; a shanty town or slum is the
ownership regularizing and the construction of new housing environment of a poor man according to the operational
units, settlement per settlement (consult the Municipal definition officially adopted at a UN meeting in Nairobi,
Housing Plan: document for debate (Prefeitura do Municı́pio 2002. It is characterized by an excess of population,
de São Paulo. Plano Municipal de Habitação PMH precarious or informal housing, inadequate access to
2009–2024), Fig. 1). drinking water and sanitary conditions and insecurity as
Data, information, indicators, knowledge generation, part of the ownership of this house.
decision making, geographic spaces, popular housing, Throughout the third world, the choice of housing is a
regularization of land ownership, spatial analysis, maps, complicated calculation of ambiguous considerations. Like
registries and population surveys are some of the issues the famous phrase of the anarchist architect John Turner.
that Habisp relates to. To classify it into a single system “Housing is a verb”. The urban poor need to resolve a
modality is not an easy task, these subdivide into categories, complex equation upon attempting to optimize the cost of
in accordance to the activity they support, but Habisp housing, guarantee ownership, the quality of the shelter,
does not fit into a single category, and can be deemed to distance from work and oftentimes their own safety. And
be a system for managerial information; a transactional for all, the worst situation is a poor and expensive area
processing system or a decision making support tool lacking in public services and without the warranty of own-
(BIDGOLI 1989, apud BARBOSA 2003). ership (DAVIS 2006, p. 39).
As part of this classification set forth by Bidgoli (1989, In São Paulo, occupation in precarious settlements – slums,
apud BARBOSA 2003), we can state that Habisp is mostly a irregular land plots or tenements – has been a part of the urban
management information system, that can be used for scenery for quite some time (Fig. 2). The largest city in Latin
planning, control and decision making purposes; condens- America has one of the most complex housing problems in the
ing or summarizing the information obtained from the trans- country; and for decades, facing up to this problem has posed
actional data processing systems, with routine and a huge challenge for those in government. Concern with the
exception reports. The parcel of transactional processing poor, urban poverty and popular housing mixes old and new
systems in Habisp refers to the housing services part ideas during each period of history, and successive
supported by this same system (payment of benefits and generations of reformists have struggled for the elimination
issuing land ownership regularization deeds for public of slums. The difficulties, in the field of housing management,
areas). Nonetheless, one of its most relevant components, land market and funding for housing for the low income
the system to prioritize interventions, brings it closer or population become aggravated day after day, thanks to the
even qualifies it as a system that supports the decision economic and social problems that exclude the less
making process, although this category so far does not specialized population from labor markets, evermore
have a broadly accepted definition. demanding and that offer – when they offer – informal
employment with an extremely low compensation;
Table 2 Basic objectives of the phases proposed by the characterization, classification, eligibility and prioritization system. Own draft (Coelho
and Pérez Machado 2009)
Characterization Classification Eligibility Priorization
Characterize the precarious Classify these areas into groups Select the areas that will undergo Prioritize the activities in
settlements in the that will guide the type of intervention, already establishing at this those areas that fulfil the
municipality of São Paulo intervention that is needed phase a cut-off for the actions eligibility criteria
consequently, this means scant opportunities to have access to benefitted from the use of spatial analytical instruments of
the formal funding initiatives and their own housing. proven efficacy, and it became necessary to build a model that
Furthermore, the real estate market in São Paulo has could guide decision making, based on the existing data.
attained surreal levels of appreciation. The steep prices are The path chosen was to set forth indicators that could be
mainly due to the scarcity of supply or land at compatible evaluated individually and offer immediate responses, such
prices and locations. For those who are poor in São Paulo as: degree of urbanization of a settlement, the population’s
(families generally with incomes falling below three vulnerability, geological conditions etc., and that could be
minimum wages), there are few opportunities, and those combined into a single index. Through this procedure, the
that exist at present arise precisely in precarious housing. intention was to attain a goal to set up a decision making
What can be observed as a result of this informality, is the model that would take into account the large diversity of
greater occupation of areas that are subject to environmental variables that existed in the context, and mainly the multiple
restrictions, areas of risk with steep slopes or subject to objectives that had to be reached. Four stages were created to
flooding, contaminated soils, areas close to sanitary landfills define the priority to service a specific settlement through a
or garbage deposits, among others, besides the concentration specific housing program: characterization, classification,
of a large number of social problems, especially those linked eligibility and prioritization, each with its own objective,
to unsanitary conditions resulting from the absence of as can be observed in Table 2.
basic infrastructure, aggravated vis-à-vis the vulnerability The first and foremost stage in the system is that of
of its inhabitants, caused by factors relating to informal characterization, as the results found in future stages will be
employment, school abandonment or drop outs, early ramifications of the information collected herein. Subse-
pregnancy, domestic violence and drug trafficking. quently the work of updating the data began, as well as the
If, for the low income population, there are few alter- conceptual definition of the types of settlements that would be
natives and choosing becomes truly difficult, for public serviced by the housing policy, described in Table 3 below.
management, this problem is further aggravated, making The principle adopted was simple: according to the
intervention policies ever more complex. To have an anchor objective of the action, the SEHAB defined the focus of
for public policies, what is needed, in the first place, is prioritization. For urbanization projects, the focus of the
detailed knowledge of which are the problems that will be action was the most precarious areas in all of the issues
faced, in the quest to qualify and quantity the true needs. analyzed. However, for the regularization of shanty towns,
What does it mean to understand each of these low-income as in principle the program cannot regularize precarious
occupations in their totality, but also in terms of their situations, the focus shifted to acting upon areas with the
specificities, evaluate the resources that are necessary to best indices (COELHO and PÉREZ MACHADO 2009).
invest in each of the housing projects or programs, so as to The report “Characterization, Classification, Eligibility
select those which will make it possible to optimize public and Prioritization System for Interventions in Precarious
investment and attain the greater number of people possible Settlements in the Municipality of São Paulo/ Brazil (2007)”
among the destitute population. (Coelho 2007) highlights two principles set forth for the selec-
For the Sehab, the intervention strategies were clear, since tion of indicators and indices that jointly make up the prioriti-
work began to draft the MHP: urbanization and regularization zation index: (1) protection of the population’s life and the
of shanty towns and irregular land plots occupied by low- enhancement of livability conditions to acceptable levels; and
income populations. However there existed the need to (2) protection of the most vulnerable population socially. The
particularize that extensive universe of settlements, to know same report points out that the first formulations carried out by
where to truly begin each of the actions: that is to say, which the Sehab divided the priorities stepwise into three levels:
slums to urbanize in the coming years? In the coming month? high, medium and low, an approach that proved to be lacking,
With resources available at present? Because of this it was as the universe of settlements demands a much larger scale,
necessary to have surveys and more concrete data, besides which led to the creation of a “prioritization index”,
using analytical instruments with the ability to offer more that attributes a score between 0 and 1 to each settlement,
precise answers on where and how this housing precarious- being that 0 is the absence of precariousness and 1 maximum
ness manifests itself. The geographical aspect of the problem precariousness based on a multi-criteria analysis model.
Using the Information System and Multi-Criteria Analysis in the Geological Risk. . . 401
Table 3 Precarious settlements in the city of São Paulo: conceptualization. Own draft (Altered by the City Hall of the Municipality of São Paulo;
Alliance of Cities (2008), p 50)
Favelas Informal occupations, self-built on the fringe of urban legislation, predominantly disorderly and with a highly precarious
infrastructure. Occupied by low-income families that are social vulnerable
Irregular Irregular occupations where the division of land presents a layout that allows for the identification of a plot in comparison to
settlements a route of access. These are done mainly on land that is predominantly privately owned and acquired through some sort of
marketing and may encompass all of the family income brackets
Tenements Multi-family collective housing made up of one or more buildings subdivided into several rooms. Sanitary facilities,
circulation and precarious infrastructure, and generally overcrowded
The prioritization index is a summarized index that

aggregates other indices through a weighted method. Habisp
has a logical matrix where the weights are configured to
calculate each of the indices that are part of the system,
thus allowing the administrator to interact with and validate
the process, and also to adapt it to any change in the
situations that may have an impact on the decision making
process. In Formula (1): (COELHO and PÉREZ
MACHADO 2009) we present a mathematical formula to
calculate the prioritization index for the urbanization
program and for the precarious settlement regularization
program.
The indices used arise from several sources or origins. Fig. 3 Example of the overlay of the layer with the risk mapping
(2010) and the shanty town layer. Santa Madalena Park Slum (Source:
Those of Health and Social Vulnerability were appropriated
www.habisp.inf.br)
by the Sehab from other initiatives, which means to say they
were not produced exclusively for the prioritization
interventions, but serve as a benchmark for sectoral policies
in health and social assistance, at the municipal sphere. The
Paulista Social Vulnerability Index (PSVI) bases itself on
data from the 2000 IBGE Census and the Health Index is
based on data from the municipal health system for 2006.
The urbanization index is calculated based on the data
collected on the field and inserted into Habisp, and updated
whenever the field team identifies changes in the situation
informed; this falls entirely under Sehab´s responsibility.
½ðY IFÞ nf þ ðIR nr Þ þ ðIV nv Þ þ ½ðY ISÞ ns

IP ¼
ðnf þ nr þ nv þ ns Þ Fig. 4 Example of the interface to update data on the risk sectors (2010)
(Source: www.habisp.inf.br)
(1)
Being that: Being that: Treatment of the Landslide Risk Index in the
IF ¼ urban infrastructure index nf ¼ weight of the urban Prioritization System
infrastructure index
IR ¼ index for risks of bank nr ¼ weight of the washout The risk of washouts and landslides is founded on survey
washouts and landslides and landslide index
carried out by the Foundation for Support to the University
IV ¼ social vulnerability index nv ¼ weight of the social
vulnerability index of São Paulo (FUSP), through a partnership with the Institute
IS ¼ health index ns ¼ weight of the health for Technological Research (IPT), under the title of
index “Mapping the risks associated to washouts and landslides
Y ¼ priority ordainment factor (of growing order ¼ 1) (if decreasing in slope areas and washout of banks in streams in the shanty
order ¼ 0) towns of the municipality of São Paulo, 2003”, in which the
Housing Secretariat participated in indicating those areas
that should be subject to analysis by the IPT team, along
with the technical people (geologists, engineers and
architects) from the sub districts (UNESP/FUSP/IPT 2003/ risks only in the year 2016 may seem an unpromising sce-
2004). nario, the recognition of this critical situation is optimistic
The Risk Index for the precarious settlements neverthe- because it drives the municipality in search of more
less was conceived in the context of the prioritization sys- resources and appropriate technical solutions that allow
tem, and is calculated for each settlement by using overlay shortening the schedule.
operations (Figs. 3 and 4). The Habisp identifies, for each
settlement, the percentage of its area (m2) that lies within
each risk area and then, through a calculation formula (2), References
which attributes a weight to each degree of risk, presenting
the risk index for wash outs and landslides for the specific BARBOSA GR (2003) Sistemas de Apoio a Decisão sob o en foque de
Profissionais de Tecnologia da Informação e Decisores. Dissertação
settlement.
de Mestrado, PPGEP, UFPE
Considering that the geological risk is a determinant Bidgoli H (1989) Decision support systems: principles and practice.
factor to grant that condition of livability to an area, the West Publishing, St. Paul
use of Habisp as an aid in the new mapping has offered not Brasil (2007) Ministério das Cidades/Instituto de Pesquisas
Tecnológicas – IPT. Mapeamento de Riscos em Encostas
only the possibility to create a consistent data base on the
e Margem de Rios. Carvalho CS, Macedo ES, Ogura AT (org).
risks in the city , but has also allowed for the speedy transfer Ministério das Cidades; Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnológicas – IPT,
of that knowledge. Nowadays, delimiting the areas surveyed Brası́lia
and the main attributes that were part of the evaluation Coelho ECR (2007) Sistema de Caracteização, Classificação
Elegibilidade e Priorização de Intervenções em Assentamentos
is information that can be accessed by technicians, as well
precários no municı́pio de São Paulo/ Brasil. Prefeitura do
as managers of municipal administration. The location of Municı́pio de São Paulo. São Paulo, p 181. Disponı́vel em: http://
the risk sectors and the degree of probability that there will www.habisp.inf.br/theke/documentos/priorizacao/Per_Review_oficial.
be a landslide is also available to universities, research PDF. Acesso em 20 Jan 2011
Coelho ECR, Pérez Machado RPO (2009) Sistema de Priorização do
centers, non-government organizations (NGO’s) and other
Habisp: um estudo de caso. 12 Encontro de geógrafos da América
stakeholders of this issue, through Habisp. Latina. Montevidéo: [s.n.]. p 15. Disponı́vel em: http://egal2009.
easyplanners.info/area. Acesso em 12 Mar 2011
ðPrb nrb Þ=100þðPrm nrm Þ=100þðPra nra Þ=100þðPrma nrma Þ=100 Davis M (2006) Planeta Favela. Tradução de Beatriz Medina.
IR ¼ Boitempo, São Paulo, 272p. ISBN 85-7559-087-I
nrma
(2) IPT/SMSP (2010) Análise e mapeamento de riscos associados a
escorregamentos em áreas de encostas e solapamentos de margens
de córregos em favelas do municı́pio de São Paulo. Laboratório de
Riscos Ambientais (LARA/Cetae/IPT) e Assessoria Técnica de
Being that: Being that:
Obras e Serviços (ATOS/SMSP/PMSP)
Prb ¼ % low risk nrb ¼ weight of low risk Nogueira FR (2002) Gerenciamento de Riscos Ambientais Associados
Prm ¼ % medium risk nrm ¼ weight of medium risk à Escorregamento: Contribuição às Polı́ticas Municipais Para Áreas
Pra ¼ % high risk nra ¼ weight of high risk de Ocupação Subnormal. Rio Claro, São Paulo, 269p. Tese
Prma ¼ % very high risk nrma ¼ weight of very high risk (Doutorado em Geociências) – UNESP
Prefeitura do Municı́pio de São Paulo. Plano Municipal de Habitação
The result of using HABISP can already be seen in the PMH 2009–2024: documento para debate público. Disponı́vel em
major of government programs in progress. The main one is www.habisp.inf.br/doc. Acesso em 06 Jun 2011
the Municipal Housing Plan which can be retrofitted quickly Prefeitura do Municı́pio De São Paulo; Cities Alliance (2008)
Habitação de interesse social em São Paulo: desafios e novos
and the interventions, could be reordered according to the instrumentos de gestão. Janeiro Projetos Urbanos, São Paulo, 96p
risk areas in order to include the elimination of the most UNESP/FUSP/IPT (2003/2004) Mapeamento de risco associado a
serious risks by 2016 (including also the provision of finan- áreas de encosta e margens de córregos nas favelas do Municı́pio
cial resources for such actions). Although the elimination of de São Paulo
Maps of Landslide Areas with Technical G.I.S.:
The Use of High Resolution DTM
Mauro Palombella
Abstract
This work describes an organizing of landslides data and proposes to develop research in
information technology with the aim to improve the analysis and representation of the
landslides areas.
Geological Information System (GIS) techniques were used in a ‘test area’, by a play of
transparency on the layer of orthophotos and of hillshade, to underline physiographic
aspects of the area and to map the landslides. Moreover, it is shown that the use of high-
resolution DTM in the mapping of landslide hazard, improves the visual interpretation to
give a useful contribution to the analysis and photo interpretation.
Keywords
G.I.S. Landslides DTM Hillshade
Introduction study of the cartographic data storage system was quite

complex. The aim was to reconcile the extreme complexity
This study proposes the structure of a Geological Information of information in a map of instability, in terms of the
System (GIS) aimed at the implementation of the necessary graph information content, that the need for modeling,
data to obtain a map of “instability”. standardization and simplification. Aspects needed to allow
It was inspired on the basis of the information given by further analysis and processing and for the eventual creation
the document published by the National Geological Survey of a hazard map.
(SGN) in the ‘Miscellanea’ series (Amanti et al. 1996) and in
the CARG project (CARtografia Geologica) started in 1988,
with the purpose to realize geological and geothematic
Study Area
sheets, scale 1:50,000, to cover the entire national territory
ISPRA: Progetto CARG (2011); and adapted in order to
The Apennine thrust belt is part of the W. Mediterranean
make it compatible with the format of the census produced
composite orogeny system, which also includes northern
for the IFFI project (Inventario dei Fenomeni Franosi in
Africa (Maghreb), and represents the suture zone of
Italia) which provides a detailed overview about the distri-
the continent collision between the European plate and the
bution of landslide phenomena on the Italian territory
African plate. It has been built up since Burdigalian time and
(Amanti et al. 2001; ISPRA: Progetto IFFI 2011).
its direction of tectonic transport or vergence is towards the
Moreover, it was proposed a method of mapping aimed
African foreland (Fig. 1).
at delineating the specific morphology of the places. The
The Apennine chain has a characteristic arc shape with
convexity towards E direction with a vergence rotating
from NNE to S. The overall curvature is determined by a
M. Palombella (*) discontinuous deformation largely controlled by transverse
Freelance Geologist, Corso Umberto I n 94, 70056 Molfetta, Ba, Italy grabens.

404 M. Palombella
Fig. 2 Study area
activities and with viability and creep rapidly evolving not

compatible with human activities.
Landslide Data
Fig. 1 Schematic structural-geological map of the study area: Following an analysis of instability phenomena observed in
(a) thrust front; (b) main tectonic stress direction the study area was identified a GIS filing system.
The Geological Information System combines the
The present undulations of the Apennine belt are mainly a geometric primitives, points and lines with tables of
product of Late Cretaceous to recent deformations, which attributes to describe all the features of graphic data,
severely modified the shape of this margin by continental as follows:
collision and by subsequent development of back-arc Type of graphic item: points (Tables 1 and 2).
features. Type of graphic item: lines (Tables 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7).
Different models have been suggested for the evolution of The polygon objects were distinct, respectively, only for
this area with different shapes of continental margins; the the landslide bodies, and for the common areas of disruption
majority infers the impingement of an African promontory, or erosion gullies.
the Adriatic block, into the European continental mass. Type of graphic item: polygons.
The area of study (Fig. 2) is included in the municipality The body landslide: (Tables 8, 9 and 10).
of Alberona, section of “Foglio IGMI at scale 1: 50,000 San Areas of surface deformation: (Tables 11 and 12).
Bartolomeo in Galdo” (Pieri et al. 2011). The geometric data, such as area, dimensions, coping and
The spread and extent of landslide areas in the Apennines nail, are obtained by using appropriate tools and automatic
find their justification in the primary lithology of the outcrop- procedures of the DTM.
ping formations but are also determined by the fracturing of
the sequences limestone-marly-arenaceous and schistosity of
the pelitic sequences; and also to be considered the contribu- Maps of Landslide
tion of the recent uplift of the Apennine chain during the
Quaternary. Once implemented the information system, the instability
The technical characteristics of these soils consist of can be mapped in different ways.
susceptible pelitic sediments to the action of water infiltra- Below we show some ways of mapping that allow you
tion makes them particularly susceptible to instability. to highlight the phenomenon through GIS processing
On almost all the area there are forms evident of techniques. As you can see, the use of a high resolution
instability of the surface portion of the slope represented DTM allows you to better highlight the places morphology
by creep, by slow evolving, compatible with agricultural (Fig. 3).
Maps of Landslide Areas with Technical G.I.S.: The Use of High Resolution DTM 405
Table 1 Domain values for the field “type” Table 6 Domain values for the field “movement”
Code type Code Type
1 Flow 1 Rotational
2 Rock fall 2 Translational
3 Rotational rockslide
4 Translational rockslide
5 Counterslope Table 7 Domain values for the field “edge of the landslide”
code type
0 No
Table 2 Domain values for the field “activity” 1 Yes
Code Type
1 Active
2 Inactive Table 8 Domain values for the field “type”
3 Quiescent Code Type
1 Of genesis complex, phenomena including mass transit
2 Flow
Table 3 Domain values for the field “type” 3 Rock fall
Code Type 4 Creeping
1 River bed with a tendency to deepening
2 Area of calanque
Table 9 Domain values for the field “movement”
3 Area affected by surface deformation
4 Area affected by diffuse runoff Code Type
5 Potential flood areas 1 Rotational
6 Landslide body 2 Translational
7 Edge of escarpment of landslide
8 Edge of the escarpment, locally active for processes different
Table 10 Domain values for the field “activity”
from those that have originated it
9 Furrow erosion concentrated Code Type
1 Active
2 Inactive
3 Quiescent
Table 4 Domain values for the field “activity”
Code Type
1 Active
Table 11 Domain values for the field “type”
2 Inactive
3 Quiescent Code Type
2 Area of bad-lands
3 Area affected by surface deformation
4 Area affected by diffuse runoff
Table 5 Domain values for the field “typebody”
Code Type
1 Of genesis complex, phenomena including mass transit Table 12 Domain values for the field “activity”
2 Flow Code Type
3 Rock fall 1 Active
4 Creeping 2 Quiescent
The Geographic Information Systems allow you to per- understand the phenomenon to decision makers who are
form operations overlay, so you can easily represent the often non-experts in the field.
same landslide bodies of a DTM (Fig. 4).
Through a play of transparency on the topographic map, Conclusion
you can view the morphology (Fig. 5). The purpose of this study was to propose a structure of
And, through a play of transparency on the orthophotos, storing GIS geographic data for the types of instability
you can view the morphology and land use of the area present in the study area. The second purpose was to show
(Fig. 6). different types of mapping, highlighting the usefulness of
These geographical analysis tools allow a more immedi- high resolution DTMs for the visual understanding of the
ate visual perception of thematic mapped and help you specific phenomenon.
406 M. Palombella
Fig. 3 Topographic map Fig. 5 Overlay of the topographic map on the Hillshade
Fig. 4 Hillshade Fig. 6 Overlay of orthophotos on the Hillshade

Maps of Landslide Areas with Technical G.I.S.: The Use of High Resolution DTM 407
Fenomeni Franosiin Italia), Allegato 1 al Progetto IFFI. Servizio

Geologico Nazionale, Roma
References ISPRA: Progetto CARG - Cartografia geologica e geotematica. http://
www.apat.gov.it/site/it-It/Progetti/Progetto_CARG_-_Cartografia_-
Amanti M, Casagli N, Catani F, D’Orefice M, Motteran G (1996) Guida geologica_e_geotematica/. Accessed 10 Aug 2011
al censimento dei fenomeni franosi e alla loro archiviazione. In: ISPRA: Progetto IFFI - Inventario dei fenomeni franosi in Italia. http://
Miscellanea del Servizio Geologico Nazionale, n 7, I.P.Z.S., www.apat.gov.it/site/it-IT/Progetti/IFFI_-_Inventario_dei_fenome-
Roma, p 109 ni_franosi_in_Italia/. Accessed 10 Aug 2011
Amanti M, Chiessi V, Bertolini G, Ramasco M, de Nardo MT (2001) Pieri P, Gallicchio S, Moretti M (2011) Note illustrative del Foglio 407
Guida alla compilazione della scheda frane IFFI (Inventario “San Bartolomeo in Galdo”. ISPRA, Roma
A New Digital Catalogue of Harmful Landslides
and Floods in Italy
Paola Salvati, Ivan Marchesini, Vinicio Balducci, Cinzia Bianchi,

and Fausto Guzzetti
Abstract
Landslides and floods are widespread and recurrent in Italy, where they cause damage and
pose a threat to the population. To estimate geo-hydrological risk in Italy, catalogues of
landslide and flood events that have caused damage to the population were compiled from a
variety of sources. The catalogues covers the 1,943-year period from 68 A.D. to 2010, and
list 3,310 landslide events and 2,624 flood events that have resulted in deaths, missing
persons, injured people, and homeless. For each event in the catalogue, different types of
information were collected and organized in a database. We describe the Spatial Data
Infrastructure (SDI) we have implemented to collect, store, analyze, and disseminate the
historical information, and results of the analysis of landslide and flood risk to the
population.
Keywords
Landslide Database SDI
Introduction population of Italy, at the national and the regional scale

(Guzzetti et al. 2005a, b; Salvati et al. 2003, 2010).
Italy has a long history of climatically induced natural In the literature, investigators have described criteria to
catastrophes (Guzzetti et al. 1994, 2005a, b; Reichenbach compile historical catalogues of natural events, and methods
et al. 1998; Guzzetti 2000; Salvati et al. 2003, 2010). used for the analysis of the historical information, with
Inundations and landslides are frequent, and have a significant emphasis on the quality of the information and the results
societal and economic impact. Historical information of obtained (Guzzetti et al. 1994; Prestininzi and Romeo 2000;
landslide or flood events is fundamental to understand the Guzzetti and Tonelli 2004; Petley et al. 2005; Kirschbaum
complexities and dynamics of past events, and to predict future et al. 2009, Rossi et al. 2010, Salvati et al. 2010). Inspection of
events. Beginning in 1998, a collection of digital catalogues of the literature reveals that investigators rarely describe the data
historical, geographical, and bibliographical information on infrastructure, or the spatial data infrastructure (SDI), used to
landslide and flood events was assembled and organized in an manage (i.e., collect, store, update, analyze, and disseminate)
information system on geo-hydrologic hazards and associated historical information on natural events, including the
risk in Italy, SICI (Guzzetti and Tonelli 2004, http://sici.irpi. hardware (HW) and software (SW) components, and their
cnr.it). Since 2000, specific catalogues of landslides and floods complex interactions (Guzzetti and Tonelli 2004; Salvati
with human consequences were prepared, and used to assess et al. 2009). This is surprising, because the logical framework,
societal and individual landslide and flood risk to the the system architecture, and the performance of the SDI affect
the way the historical data are managed, from the data
collection to the dissemination of the results of the analyses.
P. Salvati (*) I. Marchesini V. Balducci C. Bianchi F. Guzzetti In this work, we present a SDI specifically designed and
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerca per la
Protezione Idrogeologica, Via Madonna Alta 126, Perugia, Italy
implemented to collect, store, analyze, and disseminate
e-mail: [email protected] historical information on landslides and floods with human

410 P. Salvati et al.
consequences to the population of Italy (Guzzetti et al. 1994,

2005a, b, Reichenbach et al. 1998; Salvati et al. 2003, 2010).
Materials and Methods
Catalogues of Harmful Landslides and Floods

in Italy
Using multiple sources of information, Guzzetti (2000),

Guzzetti et al. (2005a, b), Reichenbach et al. (1998), and
Salvati et al. (2003, 2010) have collected systematic and
comprehensive information on landslide and flood events
with direct consequences to the population of Italy, includ-
ing deaths, missing persons, injured people, and homeless.
For each event in the historical record, information listed
in the catalogues include: (1) the precise or approximate date
of the event, (2) the precise or approximate location of the
event, including administrative information, (3) the known
or inferred trigger, (4) the temporal and spatial evolution
of the event, and – most importantly – (5) the exact or
approximated number of deaths, missing persons, injured
people, and missing and homeless people. The catalogues Fig. 1 Density of landslide casualties in the Italian regions, in the
collectively list 6,186 records, and cover the 1,943-year period 1900–2010. Density is the number of casualties per 10-km2
period from 68 A.D. to 2010. In this period, landslides and
floods caused at least 96,030 casualties (16,202 due to standard Internet communication protocols between
landslides and 79,828 to floods). In the recent period applications (built on the HTTP protocol), and the XML
1900–2010, which we consider substantially complete and language (Mitchell 2005).
that we use for statistical analysis, landslides killed or In the field of mapping and cartography, the Open
injured at least 8,043 people, an average of 72.5 landslide Geospatial Consortium (OGC) has produced technical
casualties per year. In the same period, at least 4,890 people specifications for standard communication protocols. Most
died or were injured as a result of flood events, with an of the technical specifications were accepted by e.g., the
average of 44.1 flood casualties per year. Using this detailed International Organization for Standardization (ISO) in the
historical record, multiple analyses of the risk posed by ISO 19100 series, and were adopted by the European Union
landslides and floods to the population of Italy are possible INSPIRE, Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe
(Guzzetti et al. 2005a; Salvati et al. 2010). Figure 1 shows an Directive. For relational database management systems
example of the possible analyses. The figure portrays the (RDBMS), interoperability is guaranteed by the compliance
density of landslide casualties in the different Italian regions, to SQL standards ISO/IEC 9075 (1–4,9–11,13,14:2008).
in the period 1900–2010. In Fig. 2, we show the logical framework of the SDI
we have designed and implemented to manage information
on historical landslide and flood events with human
The Spatial Data Infrastructure consequences in Italy. The SDI was designed towards
interoperability, exploits state-of-the-art RDBMS techno-
A Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) facilitates the interoper- logy, and provides standard web services compliant to
ability of geographical data, and the flow of information OGC technical specifications.
between different players, including authors and users of The SDI consists of 14 virtual machines (VMs) operating
the information and the analyses (Yi Shan-zhen et al. 2001; on two separate physical servers (hosts). For virtualization,
Marchesini et al. 2010). Interoperability is the ability of a VMware ESX 4.1 was installed in the two hosts (HOST A
system, or a component of a system, to share information and HOST B in Fig. 2). The VMs run GNU/Linux Ubuntu
and to manage processes across applications adopting a 10.04 Server – 64 bit OS (S2 to S15 in Fig. 2). Management
mechanism of mutual understanding of requests and of the two hosts and of the 14 VMs is performed using
responses (Groot and McLaughlin 2000; Kralidis 2008). VMware VirtualCenter Server, VCS (S1 in Fig. 2) running
Interoperability is achieved e.g. through web services, on a Microsoft Windows 2008 Server OS, and is managed
A New Digital Catalogue of Harmful Landslides and Floods in Italy 411
Fig. 2 Logical framework adopted for the Spatial Data Infrastructure used to manage information on historical landslide and flood events with
human consequences to the population of Italy
using the client application VMware vSphere Client To guarantee the long-term integrity of the data, storage
(C1 in Fig. 2). is performed on a Raid 1 disk array, and daily backups are
A dedicated VM hosts the RDBMS (S2 in HOST A in performed on a Network Area Storage system (NAS, N1 in
Fig. 2), which represents the data core of the SDI. In the SDI, Fig. 2).
the RDBMS software is PostgreSQL 9.0, an open source,
licensed, enterprise-class SQL database server that can
manage geospatial (vector) information using the spatial
extension postGIS 1.5. We exploit the PostgreSQL 9.0 Results
capability of “master-standby” replication that allows design-
ing efficient load balancing systems based on replicated The SDI was designed to be efficient and functional for
servers. Compliance to the 2008 SQL standard revision different classes of users, including administrators, users
guarantees interoperability with others database clients. that store, edit and update the information, and users that
In the HOST A (S2 in Fig. 2), the PostgreSQL-PostGIS query the data and visualize maps. For this purpose, the SDI
server runs in a read/write mode, managed by the database allows for segmenting access to different users, based on
administrator (C2 in Fig. 2) using alpha-numeric clients, user type, network of origin, and user permissions. In Fig. 2,
PgAdmin 1.12.1 SW, and GIS clients, e.g. QGIS 1.6. the main virtualization server (S1), the pool of virtual servers
In the HOST B, two VMs (S3 and S4 in Fig. 2) host “hot- (S2 to S15), and the storage and backup systems (N1), are all
stanby” (slave) read-only nodes of a streaming replication located in a private network (intranet). Access to the data is
system (Riggs 2010) performed by the PostgreSQL RDBMS provided through specific requests to the OGC services
server in HOST A. Changes made to the master server (Internet users, C6-C7 in Fig. 2), and through direct access
databases (S2 in Fig. 2) are seamlessly replicated into the to the databases (extranet users, C4-C5 in Fig. 2).
two slave servers (S3 and S4 in Fig. 2). A load balancer External users are granted open access to WMS and
(a “pooler” implemented with pgpool-II, S5 in Fig. 2) WebGIS services. Access to WFS is restricted to a pool of
manages the requests and distributes the load between the authorized users. Web access to the OGC and the WebGIS
two slave servers. (Fig. 3) services is through a dedicated portal (http://giida.
Standard OGC services are generated using GeoServer irpi.cnr.it).
2.0.2, an open source web application for the publication of Extranet users can connect remotely to the system through
geographical information as Web Mapping Services (WMS), a virtual private network (VPN). Some of the users are
Web Feature Services (WFS), and Web Coverage Services authorized to read and/or copy the entire set of data (C4 in
(WCS). In the SDI, GeoServer is managed remotely using a Fig. 2). Other users (C5 in Fig. 2) can perform data entry and
web browser. A set of six GeoServer nodes (S6 to S11 in editing operations. In the databases, landslide and flood sites
Fig. 2) accesses the data through the pooler. Two of the six affected by the damaging events are located (1) entering new
nodes are dormant, and become active should a problem arise point geometries from a GIS client (e.g. Quantum GIS), or
in one or more of the active nodes. Each GeoServer is (2) manually adding coordinates in specific database tables
installed on an Apache Tomcat 7 servlet container. The six and fields. To guarantee conformity between geometries
GeoServer nodes share the same configuration files, shared and geographical coordinates, specific triggers calculate the
through a dedicated Network File Server (NFS, S12 in Fig. 2). correct geometry when the geographical coordinates are
The OGC services administrator (C3 in Fig. 2) performs inserted or updated. Quantum GIS and pgAdmin III are used
changes to the GeoServer nodes configuration files through a to edit geometries and alphanumeric data. Microsoft Access
dedicated VM (S13 Fig. 2) running GeoServer management can also interact with the master database via ODBC (Open
SW and sharing the same configuration files. For the changes Database Connectivity). Reuse of preexisting Microsoft
to become effective, a restart of the six GeoServer nodes is Access SQL queries has allowed users to adapt quickly to
required. the new system.
A load balancer (using Apache 2.2.14, S14 in Fig. 2) The SDI allows the different classes of users, including
distributes the external requests to the six GeoServer internet and extranet users (C6-C7 and C4-C5 in Fig. 2) to
nodes. External requests are generated by desktop GIS have access data that are always updated in the databases.
clients (C6 in Fig. 2), and by a specific WebGIS interface This is a significant advantage that reduces the complexity
(S15 in Fig. 2) written exploiting GeoEXT, OpenLayers, and and unnecessary redundancy in the data, and avoids
ExtJS Javascript libraries, and accessed by individual users problems related to the use and exchange of data of different
through a simple web browser (C7 in Fig. 2).
A New Digital Catalogue of Harmful Landslides and Floods in Italy 413
Fig. 3 Screenshot of the IRPI WebGIS
versions, and with different levels of completeness and load between the master server (for “insert” and “update”
correctness. types queries) and the slave servers (for “select” type queries).
The information stored in the databases is geographic,
and publication of the information occurs through geograph-
ical representations i.e., digital maps showing the informa-
Discussion and Conclusions
tion on historical harmful landslides and floods, and related
products (Fig. 1). For the purpose, we adopted a technologi-
To manage the digital catalogues of historical landslide and
cal solution based on a redundant system of multiple
flood events with human consequences to the population
GeoServer nodes. The software was selected for the simplic-
of Italy, we selected a SQL database server. The adopted
ity in the implementation of new services, and the compli-
technology guarantees the necessary independence of the
ance with the latest OGC standards.
data from the HW and SW infrastructure, and further
The described SDI is complex (Fig. 2), and problems
guarantees proper authentication and authorization policies
exist for its management and maintenance. The (relatively)
and management, concurrency control, and semantic and
large number of VMs (14) requires a constant survey of the
referential integrity. To identify the most appropriate techno-
individual VMs, and of the necessary connections between
logical solution, we considered the following user and system
the VMS. In case of power failure, network or HW
requirements: (1) ability of the infrastructure to manage
problems, reboot of the SDI requires a specific procedure,
geographical (geospatial) information, in vector format,
including steps to detect and resolve inconsistencies between
(2) reliability, in terms of data loss and security,
the replicated database nodes. To implement the SDI we
(3) improved replication and loading balancing capabilities,
selected SW components that are robust and well tested.
(4) the licensing scheme, that should be permissive, (5) the
Despite, bugs or unresolved problems exist in the SW. As
cost of the system, and for its maintenance and update,
an example, Geoserver does not allow granting access to a
and (6) the level of compliance with the latest SQL standards.
specific OGC service on a specific data layer, limiting the
PostgreSQL 9.0, an open source, enterprise-class SQL
functionality of the SDI. Pgpool-II is not trivial to configure,
database server, best matches the listed requirements. With
and proves highly sensitive to minor changes in the configu-
the new replication functionalities PostgreSQL 9.0 allows for:
ration parameters, with unpredictable consequences to the
(1) creating redundant systems, greatly limiting the chances of
performance of the cluster of GeoServer nodes.
data loss, (2) distributing queries and associated processing
Acknowledgments We thank G. Tonelli, for many years of manage- Proceedings of the international symposium on geo-information for
ment of the databases on historical landslides and floods in Italy, disaster management (Gi4DM), Torino, Italy. Geomatics for Crisis
and the GeoSDI team (http://www.geosdi.org/) for their strategic and Management. ISPRS. ISBN 978-88-903132-3-3, 2–4 Feb 2010
technical support. Mitchell T (2005) Web Mapping Illustrated. O’Reilly Sebastopol
Petley DN, Dunning SA, Rosser NJ (2005) The analysis of global
landslide risk through the creation of a database of worldwide land-
slide fatalities. In: Hungr O, Fell R, Couture R, Eberhardt E (eds)
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cases and good practice. Oxford University Press, Oxford Reichenbach P, Guzzetti F, Cardinali M (1998) Map of sites histori-
Guzzetti F (2000) Landslide fatalities and evaluation of landslide risk in cally affected by landslides and floods in Italy, 2nd edn. CNR
Italy. Eng Geol 58:89–107 Gruppo Nazionale per la Difesa dalle Catastrofi Idrogeologiche
Guzzetti F, Tonelli G (2004) Information system on hydrological and Publication no. 1782, Scale 1:1,200,000, SystemCart
geomorphological catastrophes in Italy (SICI): a tool for managing Riggs S (2010) PostgreSQL 9 administration cookbook. Packt.
landslide and flood hazards. Nat Hazard Earth Syst Sci 4:213–232 Publishing, Birmingham
Guzzetti F, Cardinali M, Reichenbach P (1994) The AVI project: Rossi M, Witt A, Guzzetti F, Malamud B, and Peruccacci, S (2010)
a bibliographical and archive inventory of landslides and floods in Analysis of historical landslide time series in the Emilia-Romagna
Italy. Environ Manage 18:623–633 Region, Northern Italy. Earth Surf Proc Land 35(10):1123–1137
Guzzetti F, Salvati P, Stark CP (2005a) Evaluation of risk to the Salvati P, Guzzetti F, Reichenbach P, Cardinali M, Stark CP (2003)
population posed by natural hazards in Italy. In: Hungr O, Fell R, Map of landslides and floods with human consequences in Italy.
Couture R, Eberhardt E (eds) Landslide risk management. Taylor & CNR Gruppo Nazionale per la Difesa dalle Catastrofi
Francis, London, pp 381–389 Idrogeologiche Publication n. 2822, scale 1:1,200,000
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Marchesini I, Balducci V, Tonelli G, Rossi M, Guzzetti F (2010)
Geospatial information on landslides and floods in Italy. In:
Application of the Computerised Cartography to
the Territory Management: The Geomorphological
Map of Palaeolandslides in the Velino River Valley
(Central Apennines, Italy)
Serafino Angelini, Piero Farabollini, Riccardo Massimiliano Menotti,

Fabrizio Millesimi, and Marco Petitta
Abstract
The geomorphological cartography explained in this work is the result of a process of
synthesis resulting from detailed geological and geomorphological and hydrogeological
researches and from numerous land surveys carried out during the past ten years. The
choice of the study area can be explained by the presence of important and complex
phenomena involving the upper course of the Velino river, such as palaeo-landslides,
mass-movements and debris flows, subsidence phenomena, etc. In particular, these
phenomena involve several towns (Posta, Micigliano, Sigillo, Villa Camponeschi), as
well as a fundamental route (State Road 4), following the ancient consular road, named
Salaria, roman in age.
The informations deriving from the land surveys has been integrated and controlled by
photo-interpretation (related at 1982 and 2000 aero-photographs). The result has been
implemented by the 2006 cartography, which was obtained from the ortho-rectified images,
subject to a “spreading” over the digital model of the terrain that was obtained from the
regional topographical cartography at a scale of 1:10,000, promoted by the Lazio Region.
Even if they have well-known limits of representation that derive from the approximate
restoration of the basic regional maps that were realised in the 1980s, the latter represent a
very up-to-date control instrument, depending on a critical analysis of the information.
All the data have been computerised by exploiting the tools made available by the ESRI
platform, through the development of an innovative logical pattern for the geomorphology,
since the aforesaid data were treated by considering forms, processes and deposits on the
basis of the prevailing morphogenetic agent. In this way, the problems deriving from the
contiguity and superimposition of several polygonal forms in logical contrast and topologi-
cal conflict have been overcome.
S. Angelini (*)
Litografia Artistica Cartografica S.r.l., via del Romito, 11-13R,
50134 Florence, Italy
P. Farabollini
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Camerino,
Camerino, Italy
R.M. Menotti
IFAC – CNR, Sesto Fiorentino (FI), Italy
F. Millesimi
ARPA – LAZIO, Rieti, Italy
M. Petitta
Earth Sciences Department, University “La Sapienza”, Rome, Italy

416 S. Angelini et al.
Hopefully, several representational limits will be overcome once the set-up valid for the
published printing has been made ready, since the instruments currently available have
several technical limitations in the raster process and, in spite of the information present is
correct, it does not yet respect several qualitative standards typical of Italian graphic
representation.
Several graphic improvements typical of the Italian publishing language and carto-
graphic tradition will be the topic of the subsequent phase.
Despite Italian tradition imposes extreme attention on the graphic aspect, it is very
important to note that the territorial computer-related systems facilitate an analysis of the
coverings, depending on the substrate on which they are imposed, and make it possible to
define a model according to which the forms, processes and deposits evolve over time,
infact the whole upper valley of the Velino river is annually subjected to deep changes due
to the high energy of relief and extreme weather conditions: knowledge and proper analysis
of these phenomena can contribute significantly to the right land management, giving due
importance to the prevention and the screening to be daily carried out.
Keywords
Palaeolandslide Debris flow Database and geomorphology Region feature
class Subclasses
Introduction Area of Interest

The complex geological and geomorphological dynamics of Data have been collected over the years basically in the
the Upper Valley of the Velino River is becoming increasingly Mt Terminillo massif which is bounded to the east by the
interesting although this has been considered mere scientific Upper Valley of the Velino River. In particular the study
curiosity for a long time. The new plan for extending and area that has been described here belongs to the
modifying the road sector of the “via Salaria” State Route municipalities of Posta to the north, Antrodoco to the south
N 4 – which runs between Sigillo and Antrodoco – drew the and comprises the built up areas of Sigillo (hamlet of Posta)
attention to the need for better analysing the actual natural and Micigliano. The entire area belongs to the Province of
conditions of the Velino Gorges; deep anthropogenic Rieti (region Latium) and is on the boundary of the Province
modifications – which are currently active and are acknowl- of L’Aquila whose chief town is only 35 km far from it.
edged as extremely invasive in some sectors – must also be From a geological perspective, this area represents the
considered (Fig. 1). The study-area is bounded by the valley of southern edge of the northern Apennine and features the line
the Velino River (Central Apennine) between the hamlets of dubbed “Linea Ancona-Anzio Auct.” (Castellarin et al. 1978;
Posta to the north and Antrodoco to the south; this area features Cantelli et al. 1978): such a line enables the thrust towards
outcropping lithotypes of carbonatic platform, hemipelagic ENE of the southern sector of the limestone Umbria-Marche-
marly-clayey sediments and arenaceous-pelitic turbidites Sabine Apennine over the Latium-Abruzzo areas with sectors
(Angelini et al. 2004; Centamore et al. 1991; Centamore and oriented N10+/ 10 and sectors oriented N60-80 (Calamita
Nisio 1999). The area tectonics has been intensive and com- et al. 1987). In particular, between Posta and Antrodoco, the
plex: this is demonstrated by the occurrence of folds and faults “Ancona-Anzio” line is represented by a huge fold-fault with
(overthrusts, normal faults as well as faults with complex an overthrust in a few kilometres range oriented NNE-SSW
kinematic anomalies). with a dip direction toward SE: this lies Umbrian units of
Based on the above, there is evidence that a set of data – pelagic origin – in transition facies – over Abruzzo units – in
which are flexible and can be analysed – is absolutely essential shelf facies – partly eliding the Abruzzo threshold facies (Coli
so as to investigate possible opportunities; techniques, tools 1981; Bigi et al. 1991; Deiana et al. 1995).
and procedures – which are offered by the Geographic Infor- This structural setting influences the area morphology
mation Systems as well as by digital cartography – are which is characterised by steep slopes and high relief energy
extremely relevant to this purpose. In particular, the data providing slopes with profiles with a convex trend in the
structure must be highlighted: it has been inspired by the Italian upper sector and a less steep gradient and concave trend
Geological Cartography Plan – which has been published by close to the valley floor.
the Italian Geological Service, CAR.G Project – although in From the geomorphological perspective, large slope
this case it exhibits aspects related to geomorphology. movements, rockslides and deep gravity-induced deformations
Application of the Computerised Cartography to the Territory Management 417
Fig. 2 (A) Tectonic setting of the central Apennines; rectangle

indicates the area of B. (B) Close-up of the study area; A: (a) recent
alluvial deposits; (b) Pleistocene volcanic deposits; (c) Messinian
siliciclastic turbidites; (d) Tortonian siliciclastic turbidites; (e) Meso-
Cenozoic calcareous-marly basinal and transitional deposits; (f) Meso-
Cenozoic carbonate platform deposits; (g) thrust; (h) fault. B: RU
Reatini Mts. unit, GGU Mt. Giano– Mt. Gabbia unit, GCU Gran
Sasso-Cittareale unit, NU Mt. Nuria unit, OAL Olevano Antrodoco
line, MACF Micigliano–Antrodoco–Corno Valley fault, GCF
Mt. Giano–Mt. Cagno thrust fault. (1) calcareous-marly transitional-
basinal deposits – RU; (2) carbonate platform deposits s.l. – GGU;
(3) carbonate platform margin deposits – GGU; (4) upper slope carbon-
ate facies of the post-Cenomanian drowning – GGU and GCU;
(5) upper slope carbonate facies of the pre-Cenomanian drowning –
GGU; (6) lower slope carbonate facies of the pre-Cenomanian drown-
ing – NU; (7) slope carbonate facies – GCU; (8) certain (I) and
uncertain (II) thrust; (9) certain (I) and uncertain (II) fault
complex lithotypes, on the occurrence of extensive single-layer

carbonate aquifers and on the juxtaposition of lithologies with
different mechanical and rheologic behaviours, originating
specific morphologies (Dramis et al. 1985; Dramis and Sorriso
Valvo 1994) (Fig. 2).
In particular, landforms such as trenches, ridge splitting,
scarps and reverse slopes, presence of lowered and rotated
blocks can be related to tectonic conditions of stress-
Fig. 1 Location of main phenomena due to gravity, within area of deformation. The area of interest exhibits intense and exten-
interest; red and orange arrow: earthflow and palaeolandlides; red V: sive mass movements, among which various types of active
rock falls; light blue arrows: debris flows; little green arrows: soil creep landslides and deep slope gravitational deformations can be
observed (Fig. 3): a rock block slide (Dramis et al. 1985;
(Dramis et al. 1994; e Dramis et al. 1995; Genevois et al. 1994; Menotti et al. 1999) involving the entire southern portion of
Martino et al. 2004) characterize the high reliefs of the central an ancient deposit of a toppling landslide which can be
Apennines, where large-scale slope deformations depend on observed NW of Micigliano; and a huge complex landslide
the high-relief energy, on the intense fracturing of structurally which has been caused by an upstream rotational slide
Fig. 4 Overflooding of the external areas of the riverbed of the Scura

Valley, alluvial event of the last 1st and the 2nd of December (2010)
Fig. 3 a,b: Two different representation of Villa Camponeschi

palaeolandslide: (a) geomorphological map 1:10.000 from database,
(b) orthorectified image on a digital elevation model (evidenced by red
arrows, two main scarps)
developing into an earthflow which partly involved

Micigliano itself. The second event that deserves further
investigation involves the built up area of Villa
Camponeschi: an extensive rock-block-slide involves the
entire slope and exhibits an upstream extensive trench
bounded by a secondary scarp which is slightly downhill
Fig. 5 The bank erosion of the Scura Torrent carried out large part of
and bounds the final part of the landslide body. This event the morphological terrace cancelling out route and temporarily
apparently caused the displacement of the stream axis of the isolating the locality of “Le Casette”
Velino River: this has been displaced by an extensive bend-
ing towards the opposite bank and it is demonstrated by which is currently composed by vector and raster carto-
sublevel surfaces depending on the terracing of the landslide graphic data (mainly bibliographic), aerial photographs,
body during the valley deepening of the river itself. satellite imagery, attribute tables, external encoded tables,
photographs (Figs. 4 and 5), texts and analyses of local type.
Data collection dates varies and influences the definition of a
Data picture of the situation at the time data were collected
providing further useful elements through change detection
The Velino River area comprised between Posta and operations.
Antrodoco has been investigated by our research team since All the cartographic data that have been surveyed are
a long time ago: cartographies, unpublished scientific work based on raster cartography scale 1:10,000 published by
regarding geological, geomorphological and hydrogeological the region Latium in the early Nineties and a cartographic
aspects have been conducted over the years offering a number base has recently (2011) been created (copyright owned by
of considerations. the Litografia Artistica Cartografica S.r.l., Florence) scale
Most of the data that have been surveyed over the years 1:25,000. I.G.M. data are exclusively available in raster
have been digitalised and stored in a complex geodatabase format and date back to’00s.
relations concerning real elements that have been mapped:

following this method some information levels are defined
(Servizio Geologico d’Italia, 1997, 2008). Geographical
features are stored within this levels based on “families” of
encoded data; other data can or cannot be related to the
analysis that is being conducted according to the aspect
that must be highlighted. The cartography that is presented
in this paper has the purpose of investigating the geo-
morphological aspect of the Valley and its relation with the
existing infrastructures; for this purpose information
concerning geological Formations is generalized following
a litho-mechanical logic that is typical of geomorphology:
although this is stored in the database, it is considered
redundant and is put together with other information.
The information layers that have been used for compiling
the geomorphological cartography have been drawn scale
1:10,000 and include punctual, linear polygonal and
“region” features; the introduction of the last type of feature
is needed as in geomorphology two polygonal shapes
belonging to the same “family” of data – thus to the same
information level – frequently overlie – partly or entirely –
causing a topological conflict which is hard to solve if tools
are inadequate. For instance, if two avalanches or landslides
(possibly with different activity or type of movement) origi-
nate from opposite slopes despite the same valley floor.
Trough “regions”, landforms of a level can be easily and
correctly managed, despite overlying, as well as coalescent
deposits in the suitable main level (Lay010). The use of
“regions” is essential when the same information layer has
been multi-assigned: choice between the representation of a
structural slope or the same slope sculpted by a glacier is no
longer needed: these are both erosion types although they
belong to different subclasses but are found within the same
information layer.
Main information layers that are found in the database are
the following:
– Lay010, polygonal information level occupied by the
outcrops drawn on the map; by definition it cannot show
unlabelled polygons as it identifies a Formation (put
together with another because of its lithological aspects)
or a relevant deposit; lines of the same level provide
information regarding geological and structural elements
that are relevant to their scale of representation although
they refer to the morphological aspects of a different level
Fig. 6 Extremely simplified logical sketch and its relationships among (lay 015);
just main layers of geomorphological information system of reatini – Lay013: a linear and punctual level which contains infor-
mountains; in light pink: main geomorphological levels (data and
attributes); in red: main spatial relationships. Metadata aren’t included
mation regarding surface hydrography;
in the sketch – Lay015 and 016: these levels contain information
concerning punctual and linear landforms and processes
Vectorial data are organized into a relational database to the representation scale; the main morphogenetic
ESRI (through the ArcInfo software) which employs agents are volcanism and structural elements except for
entity/relation concepts (Fig. 6) so as to correctly manage tectonic contacts, gravity, karsism, glacialism and
geographical (topological) as well as information (attributes) crioclastism, wind, sea lakes and swamps;
– Lay028: an information level that enables to easily locate Angelini S, Farabollini P, Fazzini M, Gaddo M, Gentili B (2003)
every survey area and people responsible for the survey Analisi meteo climatica e cartografia valanghe: studio per il
rilevamento geomorfologico dei Monti Reatini nell’Appennino
through the “region” construction; centrale. AINEVA, Neve e Valanghe, n.43
– Lay030: a “region” information level which contains erosion Angelini S, Farabollini P, Menotti RM, Millesimi F, Petitta M (2004)
landforms and processes that have been described in ten Geomorphological-touristic map of Reatini Mountains (Central
subclasses according to the main morphogenetic agent. Apennines, RI). Ed. L.A.C. Firenze
Arctur D, Zeiler M (2004) Designing geodatabases – case studies in
Furthermore a few accessory information layers have been GIS data modeling. ESRI Press, Redlands
added: these contains either “Administrative boundaries” Bigi S, Calamita F, Centamore E, Deiana G, Ridolfi M, Salvucci R
(Lay031) or elements useful for the representation (Lay030) (1991) Assetto strutturale e cronologia della deformazione della
such as “fan branches” or “lines of maximum gradient of zona di incontro tra le aree umbro-marchigiana e laziale-abruzzese
(marche meridionali e Lazio-Abruzzo settentrionali). Studi Geol
areas with glacial flow”. A series of external tables crown Camerti, vol. spec. CROP 11:21–26
the vectorial data outlines which have been used for the Boni CF, Capelli G, Petitta M (1995) Carta idrogeologica dell’alta
cartography described above: these tables have been created e media valle del fiume Velino. Ed. System Cart, Roma
for providing details concerning deposits “textures” as well as Burrough PA, McDonnel RA (1998) Principles of geographical infor-
mation systems. Oxford University press, Oxford
for describing “depositional environments”. Calamita F, Deiana G, Invernizzi C, Mastrovincenzo S (1987) Analisi
Topographic elements have been structured in a different strutturale della “linea Ancona-Anzio” Auct. Tra Cittareale
list and are exclusively available in the vector version scale e Micigliano (Rieti). Boll Soc Geol It, 106:365–375
1:25,000. Cantelli C, Castellarin A, Praturlon A (1978) Tettonismo Giurassico
lungo l’Ancona-Anzio nel settore Terminillo-Antrodoco. Geologica
Romana XVII:85–97
Castellarin A, Colacicchi R, Praturlon A (1978) Fasi distensive,
Considerations trascorrenze e sovrascorrimenti lungo la linea Ancona-Anzio
Centamore E, Nisio S (1999) Quaternary geology and morphostructural
The Italian Geological Service publishes the Italian Geolog- evolution between the Velino and Salto valleys. Num. Spec. 2002
International workshop Large-scale vertical movements and related
ical Map scale 1:50,000 within a national project dubbed gravitational processes
CAR.G (Geological Cartography): this project is based on Centamore E, Civitelli G, Corda L, Mariotti G, Romano A, Capotorti F,
land division of the Italian Map into 652 Sheets following Salvucci R (1991) Carta geologica dell’area di M. Giano –
the catalogue of the Italian Military Geographical Institute. M. Gabbia – Gole del Velino- in Studi Geologici Camerti, Volume
Speciale n.2 Crop 11
Since the Nineties all information collected within this Coli M (1981) Studio strutturale della linea “Ancona-Anzio” tra Posta
project is stored into a relational database scale 1:25,000; e Antrodoco (Gole del Velino). Boll Soc Geol It 100:171–182
in a number of geographical areas, stored data from field Damiani AV, Pannuzi L (1976) La glaciazione wurmiana
survey are even more detailed (1:10,000). nell’Appennino laziale-abruzzese. Bollettino della ocietà Geologica
Italiana XCVII:85–106
Despite future publication of geomorphological Sheets, Deiana G, Pasqualini L, Salvucci R, Stroppa P, Tondi E (1995) Il
the Project has never provided a specific database for sistema dei sovrascorrimenti nei Monti Reatini: analisi geometrica
collecting these data and exclusively managed their e cinematica. Studi Geologici Camerti, vol Spec 1995/2:199–206
digitalisation. In particular, the storage of these data involves Dramis F, Sorriso Valvo M (1994) Deep seated gravitational slope
deformations, related landslides and tectonics. Eng Geol
difficult choices due to their complex origin. 38:231–243
Within this area of interest, information has been hetero- Dramis F, Maifredi P, Sorriso-Valvo M (1985) Deformazioni gravita-
geneously collected over the years despite the introduction of tive di versante. Aspetti geomorfologici e loro diffusione in Italia.
well-defined logical outlines that followed the CAR.G Project Geol Appl Idrogeol XX(II):377–390
Dramis F, Gentili B, Pambianchi G (1994) Deep-seated slope
but involved detailed geomorphology: these outlines enabled deformations and connected large-scale landslides in the Umbria-
easy data cataloguing, extraction, analysis, updating and com- Marche Regions. Spec. Vol. International Congress IAEG, Lisboa
parison with similar situations on various geographical areas. 1994
Furthermore, as one of the main purposes of this paper is Dramis F, Farabollini P, Gentili B, Pambianchi G (1995) Neotectonics
and large-scale gravitational phenomena in the Umbria-Marche
interaction with already structured geological data as well as a apennines, Italy. In: Slymaker O (ed) Steepland geomorphology.
wide use of existing data through their reorganization, this Wiley, New york
work has the ambition to provide reference outlines for Genevois R, Prestininzi A, Romagnoli C (1994) Deep seated gravita-
normalization of geomorphological data on a national scale. tional slope deformations in Lazio. Spec. vol International Congress
IAEG, Lisboa
Giraudi C (1998) Il glacialismo tardo-pleistocenico del massiccio del
Terminillo (Lazio – Appennino centrale). Il Quaternario 11:121–125
Longley PA, Goodchild MF, Maguire DJ, Rhind DW (2001)
References Geogrraphic information systems and sciences. Wiley, New York
Martino S, Moscatelli M, Scarascia Mugnozza G (2004) Quaternary
Angelini S, Fazzini M (2004) Carta di Localizzazione Probabile delle mass movements controlled by a structurally complex setting in the
Valanghe del comprensorio di Monte Terminillo. Ed. L.A.C. Firenze central Apennines (Italy). Eng Geol 72:33–55
Menotti RM, Millesimi F, Petitta M (1999) Carta dei fenomeni franosi Servizio Geologico d’Italia (1997) Quaderno 6: linee guida all’infor-
interessanti i centri abitati e la viabilità nella Provincia di Rieti. Ed. matizzazione e per l’allestimento dalla Banca Dati. Quaderni del
SystemCart, Roma Servizio Geologico d’Italia. Ed. ISPRA
Servizio Geologico d’Italia (1994) Quaderno 4: Carta geomorfologica Servizio Geologico d’Italia (2008) Banca dati CARG integrata,
d’Italia, Guida al rilevamento, Quaderni del Servizio Geologico Quaderni del Servizio Geologico d’Italia. Ed. ISPRA
d’Italia. Ed. ISPRA Van Oosterom P, Zlatanova S, Fendel E (2005) Geo-information for
disaster management. Ed. Springer
Database of Unstable Rock Slopes of Norway
Halvor Bunkholt, Bobo Nordahl, Reginald L. Hermanns, Thierry Oppikofer,

Luzia Fischer, Lars Harald Blikra, Einar Anda, Halgeir Dahle, and Stine Sætre
Abstract
The Geological Survey of Norway is currently developing a database for unstable rock
slopes in Norway. The database is intended to serve three main purposes: (1) to serve as a
national archive for potential unstable slopes for use in hazard and risk analysis, aerial
planning and mitigation work as well as research; (2) to serve as a robust and easy to use
database during field mapping of unstable rock slopes; (3) provide a public available
database accessible through an online web map service. The database structure contains
several feature classes storing both raw and processed data, including structures,
lineaments, displacement measurements, run-out areas and other observations. All feature
classes are linked to one main point which holds a general summary for each unstable slope.
Keywords
Database structure Unstable slopes Online web service National data archive
Introduction villages killing in total 188 people (Høst 2006). As the

Norwegian Building Act places restrictions on land use of
In Norway large rockslides with fatal consequences areas that can be affected by rock slope failures and their
have occurred several times in pre-historic and historic secondary effects, a national database to store information
times (e.g. Blikra et al. 2005; Furseth 2006). Four times in on potential unstable slopes has been requested by the Nor-
the last 100 years rock avalanches have hit fjords and lakes, wegian Water and Energy directorate (NVE). NVE has the
and subsequent tsunami waves have destroyed entire responsibility of supporting municipalities with landslide
mitigation. As a response the Geological Survey of Norway
has developed a database for unstable rock slopes since
H. Bunkholt (*) B. Nordahl R.L. Hermanns T. Oppikofer 2008.
L. Fischer
Geological Survey of Norway, Leiv Eriksons vei 39, Trondheim
NO-7040, Norway
e-mail: [email protected] Current Inventory
L.H. Blikra
Åknes-Tafjord Beredskapssenter, Stranda, Norway Currently, 285 potential unstable slopes have been identified
E. Anda
nationwide either from remote sensing data such as interfero-
Møre og Romsdal Fylkeskommune, Molde, Norway metric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data or orthophotos,
H. Dahle
or from geological field mapping or knowledge from the local
Geological Survey of Norway, Leiv Eriksons vei 39, Trondheim population.
NO-7040, Norway The objects included in the database are commonly larger
Fylkesmannen i Møre og Romsdal, Molde, Norway than 0.1 million m3, and they cluster in specific regions of
S. Sætre
the country. This clustering reflects both the variation in
Fylkesmannen i Møre og Romsdal, Molde, Norway geology prone to landslide, and also the progress in the

424 H. Bunkholt et al.
comprehensive structural data sampling of discontinuity

sets, if necessary using terrestrial laser scanning (TLS)
(Oppikofer et al. 2009). The structural data set must be
comprehensive enough to allow for construction of kine-
matic models of the slope and a good understanding of the
delimiting structures of the instability (Saintot et al. 2011).
Based on simple or detailed mapping, a slope may be put
under “Periodic monitoring” by differential GPS systems
(dGPS) (e.g. Bunkholt et al. 2011; Hermanns et al. 2011),
TLS (Oppikofer et al. 2009), satellite- or ground based
InSAR or other data such as extensometers and more.
Finally, a few slopes have been classified as representing a
high risk for population and/or infrastructure. These are put
under “Continuous monitoring” (e.g. Blikra 2008).
Database Structure
Aim and Purpose
The database structure has been optimized to fulfill the

following main goals: (1) to serve as a national archive for
potential unstable slopes for use in hazard and risk analysis,
aerial planning, and mitigation work as well as research; (2)
to serve as a robust and easy to use database during field
mapping of unstable rock slopes; (3) provide a public avail-
able service accessible through the internet. Different user
interfaces with varying levels of access both for data entry
and data extraction are defined, depending for which of the
Fig. 1 Current inventory of database: 285 unstable objects above goals the user interface is intended for.
ongoing mapping programme by the Geological Survey of Internal Structure

Norway (Fig. 1) (see Hermanns et al. 2011, this volume). In
Fig. 1 the unstable objects are visualized according to the A joint effort between key persons in landslide research in
level of investigation and monitoring carried out at each site. Norway has led to a comprehensive list of Norwegian (and
Currently, 4 unstable slopes are under continuous monitor- English) terms that are used to describe rockslide features.
ing and have early-warning systems installed, 55 are moni- This list is based on international nomenclature and defines
tored periodically, 9 have been mapped in high detail, 60 the database structure. Each object in the database is mapped
have been inspected in the field, 42 have been reconnoitred with one main point (“UnstableSlopeMainPoint”) and clas-
and 95 are yet to be visited or reconnoitred in the field. A sified according to the investigation level of the slope. All
classification system based on hazard and risk level is under other data for the object are stored and related to the main
construction (Hermanns et al. 2011, this volume). The point through six feature classes (Fig. 2). All acquired data
mapping of potential unstable slopes starts by studying are classified either as 1st order (field observations, remote
remote sensing data such as orthophoto, digital elevation sensing data, displacement measurements) or 2nd order data
models (DEMs) and InSAR data (Lauknes et al. 2010). (analysis results)
Objects identified from these data are classified as “Not
mapped.” Next step is to conduct a “simple field mapping.” The “UnstableSlopeMainPoint”
This involves an on-site investigation of the slope with The main point contains a summary of the unstable slope. The
sufficient sampling of structural data to construct an overall attributes are as listed in Table 1, and each attribute is
understanding of the slope stability (Henderson and Saintot associated with a drop-down list that provides the user with
2011). If the results after this simple field mapping suggest different choices pre-defined from the list of nomenclature.
further follow-up of the potential unstable slope, a detailed The extensive use of drop-down lists ensures that data are
field mapping is executed. “Detailed field mapping” includes added to the database in a coherent manner, regardless of
Database of Unstable Rock Slopes of Norway 425
Fig. 2 Structure of the database with feature classes, tables and entry. Also shown is an example of the feature class “SlideLineaments”
relations. Feature classes store spatial information with attributes. with a few of the attributes and the associated drop-down list for the
Tables are used when many-to-one relations are needed for data attribute “LineamentType”
user. This strengthens the homogeneity of the database con- “AnyOtherRegistration”. The feature class “UnstableSlope-
tent and the possibilities to execute effective searches. MainPoint” also includes some 1st order data.
Detailed data are stored in the feature classes for geometric The feature class “Observation points” contains all
objects, and plain tables for other related information linked observations made in the field (e.g. orientation and displace-
to the main point. Additional data such as bathymetry, high ment measurements on fractures, faults and sliding surfaces,
resolution DEMs, InSAR data and/or TLS data and more are sink holes or any other structural or morphologic point data).
also stored with links as attributes to the main point object. Tables such as e.g. “Structures” are used when the collected
The three tables linked to the main point (Fig. 2) include data data need to be stored in a one-to-many relation, such as
from analysis of the unstable slope in general. Analysis of when measuring numerous orientation data at one specific
georadar, seismic surveys, resistivity, hydrological studies point in space. Data input for attributes in the tables are also
and climatic surveys are examples of this. There is also a constrained by drop-down lists where found useful. The
table for the analysis results of the movement of the unstable feature class “Slide lineaments” contains structural or mor-
slope. The table for URL documentation provides links to phological lineaments within the slide area or in its vicinity.
additional data, such as geological reports, journal papers, The feature class “MeasuringStations” contains data from
online map services etc. dGPS measurements, extensometers, TLS data and more.
The feature class “AnyOtherRegistration” is intended for
First Order Data storing data temporarily in the field that do not naturally
All data that are collected in the field, from remote sensing belong in any other feature class. This feature class may
or by displacement measurements are regarded as 1st be removed in the future, when the current database
order data. These data are stored in the feature classes “Observ- structure by experience has matured to a final well working
ationPoints”, “MeasuringStations”, “SlideLineaments” and structure.
Table 1 Content of the “UnstableSlopeMainPoint” attribute table. The use of drop-down lists ensures a consistent data entry
Attribute Description
UnstableSlopeID Manually assigned according to local number system
UnstableSlopeName Defined by nearest place name from 1:50,000 national map series
MappingLevel Drop-down list. See legend Fig. 1
CommentField Any site-specific general comments
MeasuringMethod Drop-down list. Describe how the object is mapped or digitized
dGPS surveillance Yes/no
Terrestrial laser scanning Yes/no
surveillance
Terrestrial radar surveillance Yes/no
Recognizable Drop-down list. Describes how visible the object is in the field or on aerial photos.
DipDirectionSlope Drop-down list. N, NE, E, SE, S, SW, W, NW, Varying
DipDirectionLandslide Drop-down list. N, NE, E, SE, S, SW, W, NW, Varying
SlideRelief Vertical height from run-out area to back scarp in meters
SlopeDipAvg Average dip of unstable slope in degrees
SlopeDipMax Steepest dip of unstable slope
SlopeDipMin Least dip of unstable slope
CommentSlope Descriptive comment field
MainRockType Drop-down list of pre-defined rock types from bedrock database
VolumeMax Maximum estimated volume of unstable area
VolumeProbable Probable (mean) estimated volume of unstable area
VolumeMin Minimum estimated volume of unstable area
MovementType Drop-down list of different movement types (planar, wedge, toppling, rotation, creep, unknown)
CommentMovement Comment field to enter additional text for each object if needed.
MovementTypeFailure Drop-down list of movement types during failure (planar, wedge, toppling, rotation, creep, flow, fall)
CommentMovementTypeFailure Comment field to enter additional text for each object if needed.
DeformationType Drop-down list (undulating, stepwise, open cracks, talus)
CommentDeformationType Comment field to enter additional text for each object if needed.
DeformationAmount Drop-down list (No deformation, small, medium, large, very large)
CommentDeformationAmount Comment field to enter additional text for each object if needed.
RunOutMax Maximum assumed run-out distance (meters)
RunOutMean Intermediate assumed run-out distance (meters)
RunOutMin Minimum assumed run-out distance (meters)
SecondaryEffectType Drop-down list (tsunami, damming, dam breach/flood, none)
ImpactAreaType Drop-down list (water, land)
HazardDegree Drop-down list (very high, high, moderate, small, very small, not estimated). According to return period
thresholds given in the Norwegian Building Act ranging from <100 years to >10,000 years
Consequence Drop-down list (Extreme, very high, high, medium, small to none)
CommentConsequence Comment field to enter additional text for each object if needed.
References Text field. May be linked to table for multiple references.
Documentation Text field. May be linked to table for multiple documents.
Illustration Text field. May be linked to table for multiple documents.
DEM_link Text field. Hyperlink to map view of unstable slope visualized within www.norgei3d.no digital globe
Date Date of discovery
County County where the unstable slope is located
Municipality Municipality where the unstable slope is located
Geologist Geologist responsible for detection and mapping of the unstable slope
Second Order Data lineaments “SlideLineaments” and a result of processing

Results from analysis of the 1st order data are regarded and analysis of all available data. If necessary can an unsta-
as 2nd order data. There are three 2nd order feature ble area be divided into several sub-areas due to differing
classes: “UnstableArea,” “RunOutArea” and “Secondary- kinematic properties, by creating several polygons for each
EffectArea.” Each unstable slope is represented by a poly- sub-area in the “UnstableArea” feature class.
gon “UnstableArea” in addition to the “UnstableSlope- When a run-out assessment has been carried out, the
MainPoint.” This polygon is based on the mapped polygons describing the run-out areas are stored in the
Database of Unstable Rock Slopes of Norway 427
Fig. 3 Screen shot from www.skrednett.no, the national web page for box displays a selection of the content of the attribute tables of the
online access to the Norwegian landslide database (Skrednett 2011). feature classes. The planned online web service for the unstable slopes
The displayed map shows all registered landslides in the selected area database will provide similar services
subdivided by landslide type. By clicking on the main point, a pop-up
RunOutArea feature class. Information is mainly added by purposes, both 1st and 2nd order data are available. On the
use of pre-defined drop-down lists to ensure consistent data online web service that will be made available from the
entries. Comment fields are made available to provide space website of the Geological Survey of Norway with the main
for additional information. Data such as type of area, proba- purpose to serve municipalities and the ordinary citizens,
bility, hazard level, tsunami and damming analysis are only the feature classes “UnstableSlopeMainPoints” and
added. For areas exposed to threats by secondary effects “UnstableArea” will be available for display on screen.
such as e.g. dam breach, air pressure waves and tsunamis,
polygons are created and stored in the SecondaryEffectArea
feature class. The main results from the 2nd order feature
classes are also included in the attribute table of “Unstable- Field Database
SlopeMainPoint” (Table 1).
For field mapping purposes a reduced version of the database
structure with easy to use drop down menus has been
Practical Use extracted from the structure of the full database. The field
database consists of the 1st order data feature classes. Experi-
National Archive ence has shown that the drop-down lists and attribute tables
for each feature class should not be too comprehensive, as
The database is designed to store a comprehensive dataset very large tables or drop-down lists make the work flow in
from each unstable slope. The input data include all field less smooth and reduces the effective time spent for
registered field data and all processed data, both 1st and measuring and registering of data. To enhance the fieldwork,
2nd order data. The content of the database will be public background information such as e.g. high-detailed orthophoto
available. The amounts of data that will be presented differ of the field area, DEMs, bathymetric and seismic fjord data,
depending on the purpose of the request. For aerial planning, InSAR data and more are made available in a package with
risk and hazard analysis, mitigation work and research the data model.
Online Web Service

References
Through the online web service, the feature classes “Unstable-
MainPoint,” “MeasuringStation” and “UnstableArea” will be Blikra LH, (2008) The Åknes rockslide; monitoring, threshold values
and early-warning. In. Zuyu C, Jian-Min Z, Ken H, Fa-Quan W,
selectable for visualization on screen. The content of the attri-
Zhong-Kui L (eds). Landslides and engineered slopes. From the
bute tables may be investigated by the user through pop-up past to the future. Proceedings of the 10th international symposium
information sheets (Fig. 3), and hyperlinks provide access to on landslides and engineered slopes, Taylor and Francis, Xi’an,
graphical displays of data such as dGPS measurement results. China, June 30–July 4 2008, pp 1089–1094
Blikra LH, Longva O, Harbitz C, Løvholt F (2005) Quantification of
Hyperlinks are also planned to be used to guide the user to a
rock-avalanche and tsunami hazard in Storfjorden, Western
visualization of the unstable slope on a 3D digital terrain model Norway. In: Senneset K, Flaate K, Larsen JO (eds) Landslides and
with draped orthophoto using www.norgei3d.no, or provide avalanches: ICFL 2005 Norway. Taylor & Francis, London,
direct download of reports related to the selected unstable pp 57–64
Bunkholt H, Osmundsen PT, Redfield T, Oppikofer T, Eiken T, L
slope from the web page of the Geological Survey of Norway.
´Heureux J-S, Hermanns R L, Lauknes TR (2011) ROS Fjellskred i
Finally, the public part of the data will be downloadable free of Troms: status og analyser etter feltarbeid 2010. NGU rapport
charge from the online web service. 2011.031, p 135
Furseth A (2006) Skredulykker i Norge. Tun Forlag, Oslo, p 207
Henderson IHC, Saintot A (2011) Regional spatial variations in
Conclusion rockslide distribution from structural geology ranking: an example
The above described database for unstable rock slopes in from Storfjorden, Western Norway. In: Jaboyedoff M (ed) Slope
tectonics, vol 351, Geological society, Special publication. Geolog-
Norway is planned published on the internet late 2011/ ical Society, London, pp 79–96
early 2012. The database will serve three main purposes: Hermanns RL, Bunkholt H, Böhme M, Fischer L, Oppikfer T,
(1) to serve as a national archive for potential unstable Rønning JS, Eiken T (2011) Foreløpig fare-og risikovudering av
slopes for use in hazard and risk analysis, aerial planning ustabile fjellparti ved Joasete-Furenkamben-Ramnanosi, Aurland
kommune. NGU rapport 2011.025. (ISSN 0800–3416). p 47
and mitigation work as well as research; (2) to serve as a Hermanns RL, Blikra LH, Anda E, Saintot A, Dahle H, Oppikofer T,
robust and easy to use database during field mapping of Fischer L, Bunkholt H, Böhme M, Dehls JF, Lauknes TR, Redfield
unstable rock slopes; (3) provide a public available data- T, Osmundsen PT, Eiken T (2011). Systematic mapping of large
base accessible through an online web map service. Dif- unstable rock slopes in Norway. Proceedings of the second world
landslide forum – 3–7 Oct 2011, Rome. This volume
ferent user interfaces with varying levels of access both for Høst J (2006) Store fjellskred i Norge. Utredning for Landbruks- og
data entry and data extraction are defined, depending for matdepartementet på vegne av 6 departementer. NGU rapport.
which of the above goals the user interface is intended for. Geological Survey of Norway, Trondheim. p 87
Extensive use of drop-down menus during ensures consis- Lauknes TR, Piyush Shanker A, Dehls J, Zebker HA, Henderson IHC,
Larsen Y (2010) Detailed rockslide mapping in northern Norway
tency of data during data entry. The database interact with small baseline and persistent scatterer interferometric SAR
through hyperlinks with several other web resources such time series methods. Remote Sens Environ 114:2097–2109
as for example a public available 3-D terrain model, Oppikofer T, Jaboyedoff M, Blikra LH, Derron M-H (2009) Character-
allowing the user to explore the unstable slopes in three ization and monitoring of the Åknes rockslide using terrestrial laser
scanning. Natural Hazards Earth Syst Sci 9:1003–1019
dimensions. All access will be free of charge. Saintot A, Henderson IHC, Derron M-H (2011) Inheritance of ductile
and brittle structures in the development of large rock slope
instabilities: examples from Western Norway. In: Jaboyedoff M
Acknowledgments The development of the database of unstable (ed) Slope tectonics, vol 351, Geological society, special publica-
slopes in Norway is through collaboration between the Norwegian tion. Geological Society, London, pp 27–78
Geological Survey (NGU) and the Norwegian Water Resources and Skrednett (2011) National online web service for geohazards.
Energy Directorate (NVE). The project is fully financed by NVE. http://www.skrednett.no. Accessed 10 June 2011
Landslides and Spatio-Temporal Processing
of Geographical Information
Raffaele De Amicis, Federico Prandi, Giuseppe Conti, Diego Taglioni,

Stefano Piffer, Marco Calderan, and Alberto Debiasi
Abstract
This paper presents the first relevant results of the project BRISEIDE – BRIdging SErvices,
Information and Data for Europe. BRISEIDE aims at providing operators with a time-aware
extension of data models and value added services for spatio-temporal data management,
authoring, processing, analysis and interactive visualization in several emergency-related
scenarios including, most notably, landslides. Within this context a number of WPSs devoted
to spatial analysis have been developed and integrated within existing open source
frameworks. Spatio-temporal processing services are exposed via the web and are made
available through compatible WebGIS applications. Through BRISEIDE, operators can
access processing services through an interactive web-based 3D GeoBrowser capable to
allow management, authoring, interaction, filtering of existing data. The 3D GeoBrowser
allows interactive orchestration of spatio-temporal WPSs providing support to chaining of
required processing units. This ensures interactive access to datasets and asynchronous
processing at the server side. The project mobilizes a value-chain of stakeholders to validate
the pilots from a technical, organizational and legal standpoint.
Keywords
Simulation Spatio-temporal analysis GIS SDI 3D geobrowser
Introduction In fact monitoring and mitigation of natural disasters

often requires using geospatial technologies typically
Operators of civil protection agencies and other through client–server infrastructures known as Spatial Data
Public Administrations (PAs) involved in environmental Infrastructures (SDIs). From a technical standpoint, SDIs are
monitoring and management need to access complex often deployed through a federation of interoperable web-
spatio-temporal processing features based on Geographic services capable to ensure provision of geospatial informa-
Information (GI). These functionalities should be designed tion through the network, from either a GIS or WebGIS
to fit their operational workflow to better support them in software. However SDIs typically fall short when operators
terms of decision-making, planning, training as well as in are required to deal with frequently updated repositories and
case of emergency. This requires accessing and filtering of highly dynamic data.
GI that refer to a given spatial location through tools capable This is typically the case of operators dealing with
to match both the temporal coverage of interest as well as the landslides who need to gain situation awareness and knowl-
required temporal resolution. edge both in terms of real-time data (from sensor networks
and monitoring systems) as well as in terms of previously
available information regarding the history of displacements
R. De Amicis (*) F. Prandi G. Conti D. Taglioni S. Piffer of the site.
M. Calderan A. Debiasi
Fondazione Graphitech, Trento, Italy
It is particularly important for operators to able access
e-mail: [email protected] data repositories, usually available through various sources,

430 R. De Amicis et al.
within a single interface and to be able to invoke, in a user- the current models has been preformed to ensure a complete
friendly manner, processing functionalities that can help description of the different types of time properties by
them infer the knowledge required to better understand the extend the INSPIRE metadata profile (for both data and
phenomena and take the most appropriate decision. services), considering the elements contained in the ISO
However this requires reconsidering standard data and 19115 specifications.
metadata models, in order to be able to account for time as The second pivotal issue is related to the process
one of the main variables within a multi-fold representation functionalities involving time as dimension. In particular
of all three aspects of the geographical data: thematic, tem- BRISEIDE has developed a number of processing features
poral and spatial. that can be used to process or relate time with space features.
This goal has been at the basis of the project BRISEIDE – This has required considering both time as a magnitude, for
BRIdging SErvices, Information and Data for Europe, a instance the time required to move along a path, and as a
Pilot B project, funded by the ICT Policy Support Programme temporal series, for instance when considering changes in
(ICT PSP). BRISEIDE extends the standard concept of Spa- observations over time. The resulting BRISEIDE infrastruc-
tial Data Infrastructure (SDI) to provide operators with more ture includes: ingestion services (necessary to automatically
complete and adequate data and processing tools capable to populate data repositories, define relevant metadata and
handle the time dimension in several emergency-related ensure proper cataloguing), dissemination and portrayal
scenarios including, most notably, landslides. To do so the services (for feature, coverage and raster data access via,
project has developed a number of Web Processing Services respectively WFS – Web Feature Service, WCS – Web
(WPS) for spatial analysis and it has integrated them within an Coverage Service and WMS – Web Map Service protocol),
extended SDI to be used by civil protection operator to better sensor enablement services (providing observation and
asses risks related to landslides. measurements via standard protocol SOS – Sensor Observa-
tion Service), and eventually processing service (as WPS –
Web Processing Service).
State of the Art The latter have been divided into processing services
providing topological, statistical, change detection, transfor-
Never before has been so much focus and attention on the mation (e.g. re-projection) and raster algebra features.
movements of the Earth and natural hazards these produce. It should be noted that support for time as dimension has
The need to better understand the effects of anthropic activities required development of specific software components capa-
on the natural environment is nowadays a very urgent matter. ble to provide support to the features, already included
In environmental hazard monitoring and risk management this within the WMS, WCS and WFS standards, necessary to
task requires a broad-scale process analysis in order to better manage time and space information.
understand the phenomena and the related risks. From many The last issue regards the visualization of the results. This
years several models for landslide hazard prediction has been has required development of a 4D framework capable
developed (Brenning 2005) also considering the GIS analysis to provide access to advanced representations of temporal
(Dai and lee 2002; Xie et al. 2009). In the last years with the analysis through Geovisual Analytics tools. To do so a
spread of the broadband technology and of the SDI the double approach has been considered. On the one hand the
capabilities to allow the access of these analyses is increased project has foreseen the deployment of a ready-to-use SDI
(Ambrosanio et al. 2009). These models and infrastructures are platform, which could be used to quickly validate and access
in substantially static, in other words they tend to photograph a existing data. On the other hand the project has carried on a
situation in a specific instant. However many studies and comprehensive development activities that has brought to
models has been proposed in order to manage the spatio- the development of a powerful 3D Client capable to provide
temporal complexity of the natural phenomena (Peuquet and access to the aforementioned spatio-temporal services.
Duan 1995). The capability to transports these theory models
into a services oriented architecture applied to the landslide
analysis is the aim of this work.
Overall Approach Used
Spatio Temporal-Management The overall approach adopted is based on the concept of

federated infrastructure whereby a client, in this case a 3D
This research work analysis the three central issues typical web-based client, accesses a number of web services over
of spatio-temporal management. The first concerns the defi- the network. These provide both access to data of various
nition of the metadata model describing the temporal nature (raster, coverage, vector, sensor data etc.) as well as to
properties of the data; with regard to this, an extension of processing features through interoperable standards.
Landslides and Spatio-Temporal Processing of Geographical Information 431
Fig. 1 An example of UML

diagram of the use case addressed
This way the operator can perform complex processing goal is to identify the portions of the transportation network
operation by invoking processing functionalities at the potentially affected by a landslide and to identify, if any,
server side. This approach, based on Web Process Service alternative routing solutions to be adopted by emergency
(WPS) protocol, ensures maximum flexibility as the vehicles during a crisis or in the aftermath of a landslide.
processing features are centralised and can be managed
consistently at the server level. Being this done in an inter-
operable manner, any processing functionalities can be Information Used for the Analysis
accessed by any GIS or Web GIS application complying
with the given standard adopted (in this case WPS from The data which the operators need to access include: the IFFI
OGC – Open Geospatial Consortium). dataset (the Italian landslides inventory), the Digital Terrain
Model (DTM) at 20 m resolution, the road network (as
OpenStreetMap), the railway network, water pipelines, cen-
The Use Case Addressed sus data as well as several Corine Land Cover (CLC)
datasets at different time series (code 1.1.1: Artificial
The typical actor of the use case analyses is a civil protection surfaces, Continuous urban fabric; code 1.1.2: Corine Land
operator who needs to be able to access, via interoperable Cover – Artificial surfaces, Discontinuous urban fabric; code
web-services, to a wide range of resources, stored within 1.2.1: Corine Land Cover – Artificial surfaces, Industrial,
federated databases, relative to a selected NUTS3 area, and commercial and transport units; code 122: Corine Land
to run a simulation/calculation on top of them. Cover – Artificial surfaces, Road and rail networks and
In particular, as visible in Fig. 1, which shows one of the associated land).
examples of use cases identified modelled in UML, these
regard the assessment of landslide risk through use of geo-
processing tools. Data Preparation
This assessment is to be performed on two time scales:
short-term assessment, typical of Civil Protection situations, After starting a 3D client, the operator selects the area of
in order to assess and possibly reduce the impact of a interest and then visualises the layers containing the infor-
landslide (in terms of life claimed, damages created etc.), mation needed. The operators then can adapt existing
and long-term assessment, in order to provide information datasets through the use of specific services for instance to
useful for planning purposes, based on data elaboration and perform format translation, data re-projection etc. Following
analysis. The use case has essentially to goals. The first is to this the user has to select, in a very interactive manner from a
create a landslide risk map through the intersection of areas library containing geo-processing functionalities, the simu-
potentially affected by landslides with the areas where ele- lation and processing tools needed either for tasks in the
ment of risks are located (houses, roads etc.). The second context of an emergency or to run a simulation.
Identification of Transport Infrastructure at Risk the operators, after selecting the routing functionality, clicks
on two points of the scene corresponding to the two
As soon as the user starts the 3D BRISEIDE client he/she locations. The system calculates the route and shows in on
flies to the area of interest (a NUTS3 area). The operator then top of the current scene. The user can also connect the areas
activates a number of layers corresponding to other subject to landslides to the routing algorithm to specify the
resources representing infrastructure potentially subject of areas to be avoided during the routing. The final result (if
risk including main railways and road networks. The user available) is then rendered on top of the scene.
then selects a processing feature responsible for buffering to
create a buffer area (e.g. 100 m) surrounding roads and
railways. The resulting geometries are again shown as a The Front-End System
further layer and stored within the repository.
After activating the layer containing the landslide area, as From a user perspective the operator can use a 3D client
a further step, the operator selects the processing functional- which has been developed on top of uDig, which in turns is
ity responsible to calculate geometrical intersections among built over the Eclipse Framework. uDig is an advanced and
areas and it connects the simulation component to the complete desktop GIS for data access, editing and viewing,
landslides areas and the buffer zones. The resulting integrating advanced GIS capabilities through the well-
intersections are the areas potentially subject to risk. The known Geotools library. uDig provides a user friendly
user can eventually pick on the various segments of road or graphical desktop environment to manage GIS data with a
railways, within the areas at risk, and identify the attribute of web oriented vocation compliant with well-established OGC
interest that are shown within a table. standards like WMS, WFS, WCS as well as geoRSS, KML
etc. More specifically the client has been developed follow-
ing a plug-in approach, whereby each is an extension points
Identification of Urban Area at Risk which define possibilities for functionality contributions
(code and non-code) by other plug-ins. Each plug-in has an
The operator then selects the relevant CLC resources at associated view, in particular a component of the Graphical
different time series from a table of content (TOC). Through User Interface. By default the client shows the central area
the use of a web-processing service the operator identifies where the 2D and 3D views are available.
the boundaries of continuous or discontinuous urban areas as At the bottom of the page a panel providing logging
well as commercial or industrial areas. This first dataset functionalities is provided. On one of the sides of the inter-
represents the first element of risk, which are then structured face it the user can access the resources available to the
within a new layer and saved to the repository. It should be system. These include available data and services, table of
noted that, in order to improve system performances, the content, access to metadata information through tables etc.
feature extraction process could be performed off-line as A further section will be devoted to service orchestration.
pre-processing step. Through the use of the aforementioned As illustrated in Fig. 2, this approach allows different graph-
intersection operator, the operator can easily identify those ical components to be plugged together. Each service can be
urban areas which are subject to risk. These areas are shown rendered as a graphical component, formatted according to
within a new layer and then stored within the database. the type of service (e.g. WPS, WFS etc.), to the input
required as well as to the output provided.
Most notably the operator can access processing func-
Identification of People at Risk tionality in a graphical manner by connecting server-side
processing units at the client side. In fact the user is able to
The user then selects a web-processing service that connect graphically compatible input and output which will
calculates the number of people potentially living within be snapped by the system automatically (if compatible data-
the areas at risk starting from census data according to the wise), whenever the user drags them close to one another.
percentage of census area subject to risk. The final result is This way it is possible to create complex service chains in a
shown as chart or table. very user friendly manner without the user being forced to be
aware of the underlying infrastructure. The user can then run
the corresponding processing sequence, while the orchestra-
Reachability Assessment tion components take care of all the overhead and underlying
communication.
The operator finally assesses the connectivity (in terms of Finally the remaining part of the interface is devoted to
road) between any two points within the road network (e.g. the different software components responsible for
two villages) that can be affected by the landslide. To do so, visualizing different data patterns.
Landslides and Spatio-Temporal Processing of Geographical Information 433
Fig. 2 Two images of the client.

As visible from the screenshots
the client is composed of many
panels to ensure access to various
types of data, including a 3D
window which can be used to
interactively navigate the data
repositories
ISPRA the Italian National Institute for the Protection and

Conclusions Environmental Research, within operational scenarios to
better plan and coordinate response to emergencies
BRISEIDE is deploying several operational pilots
caused by landslides.
addressing civil protection scenarios and environmental
risk management, including landslide risk, whereby
operators can access processing services through an inter- Acknowledgments The work described within this paper has been
active web-based 3D client capable to allow manage- carried on in the context of the project BRISEIDE, which is partially
ment, authoring, interaction, filtering of existing data funded under the ICT Policy Support Programme (ICT PSP) as part of
the Competitiveness and Innovation Framework Programme of the EC
through orchestration of web processing services.
(http://ec.europa.eu/ict_psp). This publication reflects the views only of the
The project mobilizes a value-chain of stakeholders to author, and the European Commission cannot be held responsible for any
validate the pilots from a technical, organizational and use which may be made of the information contained therein. The authors
legal standpoint. Most relevantly the services deployed in wish to thank the L. Guerrieri, D. Spizzichino, A. Trigila, C. Iadanza,
C. Margottini, D. Fiorenza, E. Vittori, G. Delmonaco from ISPRA the
the context of BRISEIDE will be used for 12 months,
Italian National Institute for the Protection and Environmental Research,
starting from the end of summer 2011, by operators at for their support to the activities described within this paper.
Dai FC, Lee CF (2002) Landslide characteristics and slope instability

References modeling using GIS, Lantau Island, Hong Kong. Geomorphology
42:213–228
Peuquet DJ, Duan N (1995) An event-based spatiotemporal data model
Ambrosanio M, Ioannilli M, Paregiani A (2009) A new approach to risk (ESTDM) for temporal analysis of geographical data. Int J Geogr
assessment from the civil protection perspective. In: Scarlatti F, Inf Sci 9(1):7–24
Rabino G (eds) Advances in models and methods for planning. Xie M, Qiu C, Liu X (2009) GIS-based 3D spatial-temporal assessment
Pitagora Editrice, Bologna, pp 201–210 of landslide hazard. Geophys Res Abstr 11:EGU2009-13511
Brenning A. (2005) Spatial prediction models for landslide hazards:
review, comparison and evaluation. Nat Hazard Earth Syst Sci
5:853–862, 2005 SRef-ID: 1684-9981/nhess/2005-5-853
Lahar, Floods and Debris Flows Resulting from
the 2010 Eruption of Eyjafjallajökull: Observations,
Mapping, and Modelling
Esther H. Jensen, Jon Kr. Helgason, Sigurjón Einarsson, Gudrun Sverrisdottir,

Armann Höskuldsson, and Björn Oddsson
Abstract
Historic, post-eruptive debris flows of remobilised volcanic ash are rare in Iceland, being
restricted to explosive eruptions. Volcanic ash slurry from the southern slopes of the ice-
capped Eyjafjallajökull volcano on 19 May 2010 is the first lahar observed in Iceland since
the 1947 Hekla eruption. This study focuses on the volume of sediment transported, the size
and hydrological behavior of watersheds, and the resulting erosion. The analysis is based
on: (1) direct measurements of the 19 May lahar; (2) direct measurements of ash fallout; (3)
aerial and ground-based imagery; (4) topographic data from an airborne LIDAR survey; (5)
airborne synthetic-aperture radar; and (6) precipitation data. The volume of the lahar in the
Svaðbælisá channel was estimated at 200,000 m3. This flow originated from crown and
flank failures, similar to slab avalanches, with water-saturated, fine-grained ash as the slip
surface. Several ash-laden floods occurred in Svaðbælisá and neighboring channels during
the summer of 2010. None, however, were as saturated as the 19 May lahar. An increased
number of small debris flows were also recorded some blocking roads to farms. Precipita-
tion during the summer of 2010 was not higher than average and therefore does not explain
this increased erosion. Large quantities of volcanic ash mantle the lower slopes of the ice-
cap. Ash in the ablation zone is expected to be transferred down-slope in the next few years
inducing the erosion to the root of the mountain endangering homes and infrastructure.
Fieldwork during the summer of 2010 has resulted in a map showing the volume of ash
above and below the ablation zone of the main catchments and recorded erosion events.
This data was used to assess the hazard and the need for immediate actions.
Keywords
Volcanic eruption Lahar Debris flows Floods Ash volume LIDAR Radar imagery
Introduction
Post-eruptive debris flows of remobilised volcanic ash are

rare in Iceland in historic time, being restricted to explosive
E.H. Jensen (*) J.K. Helgason eruptions. Slurry of volcanic ash from the southern slopes of
Icelandic Meteorological Office, Bústaðavegur 9,150, Reykjavik, the ice-capped Eyjafjallajökull volcano on 19 May 2010 is
Iceland
the first lahar observed in Iceland since the 1947 Hekla
eruption. The eruption in Eyjafjallajökull lasted about
S. Einarsson
Soil Conservation Service of Iceland, 851 Hella, Iceland
40 days resulting in ash covered hillsides. Problems with
increased flooding and debris flows evoke the need for
G. Sverrisdottir A. Höskuldsson B. Oddsson
Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavı́k,
thorough analyses of the situation.
Iceland

436 E.H. Jensen et al.
Methods
The analyses aimed at estimating the possibilities of lahars

and increased landslide danger. It was based on:
• Direct measurements of ash fallout; Distribution map of
ash fallout was made from ground measurements during
the summer 2010. Volume calculations were made using
ArcGIS-Spatial Analyst based on catchment delineation
made with ArcHydro tools.
• Direct measurements of the 19 May lahar; Field survey
made shortly after the flood. Fig. 1 Ash fallout, ablation zone and watershed of Eyjafjallajökull
• Aerial and ground-based imagery; High resolution aerial
photographs from Samsýn Ehf., SPOT5 satellite images ash, or about 38 mi. m3, fell above the equilibrium line of the
and photos taken during field trips. glacier. The majority of the content, or nearly 70 % fell
• Topographic data from an airborne LIDAR survey; A within the catchment area of Gı́gjökull, or about 26 mi. m3,
high resolution digital elevation model. mostly around the crater. Below the equilibrium line fell
• Airborne synthetic-aperture radar; Icelandic coast guard more than 16 mi. m3, or about 30 % of the ash that fell on
aircraft TF-Sif (Dash8) equipped with a Side looking the glacier and its foot hills. Looking specifically at the river
radar (SLAR). Images were taken during the eruption. basin where lahar, debris flow and flood have been frequent
• Precipitation data; Two rain gauges to the south and west after the eruption and influencing the communities
of the volcano where mainly used for analyzing the rain- and infrastructure south of the glacier, shows that about
fall “threshold”. 8 mi. m3, or 20 % of tephra that fell above the equilibrium
The south side of the volcano an inhabited area and line, fell in the river Holtsá, Svaðbælisá, Laugará and
therefore the focus in this study was only there. Kaldaklifsá. More than 3 mi. m3, or about 70 % of the
material that fell below the equilibrium line fell within
these catchment areas and more than 5 mi. m3, or 50 % of
Ash Distribution the material that fell on the foot hills of the mountain, landed
within these catchments and the catchment of Lambafellsá
An explosive eruption in Eyjafjallajökull 2010 started on 14 (a subcatchment of Svaðbælisá) (Table 1).
April. On 17 April the explosive activity was intense and
extremely fine ash settled in a large quantity on the south
flanks of the volcano, partly by base surges. The ashfall Direct Measurements of the 19 May Lahar
continued for a month in varying wind directions, but far
the most accumulation of tephra was on the south and east The night before May 19th, the first considerable rain for
flanks of the volcano. weeks occurred in the area south of the volcano. The rain
An estimated 25 mi. m3 of lava and 140 million m3 of ash was moderate in the inhabited area, but was presumably
was expected to have broken out in the Eyjafjallajökull intense at higher elevation. All rivers draining the southern
eruption. The thickest ash fell on the glacier by the crater, slopes of the glacier were overflowed by muddy water.
up to several tens of meters thick. Ash distribution map was In Svaðbælisá, a braided river, which drained a jökulhlaup
used in order to estimate the thickness of the tephra in each in the beginning of the eruption, the flow was more
river basin. Basins were divided into three categories; areas concentrated or similar to lahar debris flow. The flow
above and below the equilibrium line and the area below the occurred in the morning and was described to have the
terminus. On the south side the largest river basins are consistency of wet cement. It reached peak discharge within
Kaldaklifsá (37 km2), Skógaá (36 km2), Íra (20 km2), an hour and was soon diluted by the river and several
Laurgará (18 km2), Miðskálaá (18 km2), Holtsá (18 km2) tributary streams. Fig. 2 is taken after the flow had receded
and Svaðbælisá (15 km2), all of the southern side of the and diluted to muddy stream flow. The photo is overlain by a
glacier. Fig. 1 and Table 1 show the distribution and volume schematic drawing of the lahar deposit.
of tephra in the catchments. The lahar on May 19. (Fig. 2) is the first lahar observed
According to volume calculations of tephra over one third and studied by Icelandic scientists since Guðmundur
of the approximately 140 mi. m3 of ash that submerged Kjartanson studied a lahar in the Hekla eruption in 1947
during the eruption fell into river basins on the glacier (Gudmundur Kjartansson 1951). It was first observed by
Eyjafjallajökull or about 54 million. m3. About 70 % of the Olafur Eggertsson, a farmer in Þorvaldseyri, in the river
Lahar, Floods and Debris Flows Resulting from the 2010 Eruption of Eyjafjallajökull... 437
Table 1 Volume of ash in several catchments

River basin/volume of tephra Above abl.zone (mi. m3) Below abl.zone (mi. m3) On foot slopes (mi. m3) Total volume rate (%)
Kaldaklifsá 2.5 1.1 1.3 8.7
Laugará 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.6
Holtsá 1.5 0.7 1.4 6.3
Svaðbælisá 2.9 1.0 1.5 9.6
Steinalækur 0 0 0.1 0.2
Fig. 2 Is taken after the flow had receded and diluted to muddy stream flow. The photo is overlain by a schematic drawing of the lahar deposit
course of Svaðbælisá at 09:00 am reaching the flood peak

about an hour later. During the flow waves were seen in the Airborne Synthetic-Aperture Radar
river every 1–2 min, but the measurements and
observations on lahars show that they are noticeably unsta- The origin of the flow was first observed on a radar image
ble nature and flow in pulses (Iversen 1997). During the taken by the Icelandic coast guard aircraft TF-Sif, on May
event river constantly changed its course. Large quantities 19th. TF-SIF is a Dash8 equipped with a Side looking radar
of debris were in the course of the river as a result of the (SLAR). The source flank of the lahar was roughly estimate
glacier outburst mentioned earlier. The lahar filled the to be 5 km2 and a thickness of tephra that was mobilized was
channel of Svaðbælisá and overflowed a long section of probably about 50 cm, or at least several tens of cm, in most
the river bank and deposited an average 30 cm thick layer part of the area. It is likely that the size of the mobiles flank
in the upper 2.5 km of its lowland course. The layer was was in the range of millions or even several million m3.
greyish, rather dense and dull, and there was no distinct A large proportion of this ash piled up further down the
layering. glacier and a minority of the material reached all the way
During the mapping of the lahar it was difficult to into the river course and down to the lowlands. This is based
distinguish between air-borne volcanic ash, a substance on the measurements of the volume of sediment deposited in
that came down in the jökulhlaup 14 April of similar the channel of Svaðbælisá and rough assessment of the
properties and appearance tephra. Mapping revealed that probable sediment transport into the sea.
about 125 thousand m3 of sludge was deposited in the The radar image implies the source of the flood on the
channel of Svaðbælisá but it may have carried the same glacier above the heath Svaðbælisheiði in over 1,200 m
amount or more to the sea. above sea level, to the west of the ice channel on 14 April.
Cumulated rainfall the day prior to the flow was nearly (see Fig. 3).
20 mm in Sámstaðir and the peak in the precipitation
intensity was 8 h before the flood. The station does give
an inadequate picture of the situation on the glacier Tephra on the Glacier
whereas it is a few km west of it and the rain storm was a
SE creating a rain shadow at the location of the rain gauge. The radar images encouraged people to go up on the glacier
It was not possible to use the facilities closer to the volcano and observe the source. During a field trip on May 25 to 26.
since ash filled the rain gauge and distorted the measure- the scrap of the lahar was measured to about 50 cm in a 25
ment results. inclination and height of the scrap was similar in other areas
Fig. 4 High resolution DEM derived from LiDAR measurements
Fig. 3 The image shows several sliding areas on the south slopes of the observed and the aforementioned air photos taken in July
glacier. The red lines show contours of these areas, but the blue one reviled traces of the many additional small slab avalanches
delineates the area later verified to have fed the Svaðbælisá lahar flow within the catchments of Svaðbælisá Holtsá.
Evidence of the lahar and mud flows can also be seen
observed. The pile contained four different layers: the top clearly in digital elevation model made with a laser mea-
layer was beaten wind shell (~4 cm thick), layer two was surement (LiDAR) from an airplane in August 2010 (Fig. 4).
rough granular, and also contained a high permeability Sheet wash erosion is a common landform on the slopes of
(~20–25 cm thick). Layer 3 (~16 cm thick) was fine-grained, volcanoes after eruptions fine grained ash forming of imper-
completely saturated with water and liquefied during the meable layers in the pile or on the surface of the tephra
smallest agitation. The fourth and bottom layer (~10 cm stratum (Manville et al. 2000). This was the case close to
thick) was slightly tougher than layer 3, but fine grained the bottom of the pile in the southern Eyjafjallajökull
anyway, but little or no water saturated. This stratification (referred to as layer 3 above).
was seen on the whole southern part of the glacier in the During the field expedition in May 2010 it was also found
catchments of Holtsá, Svaðbælisá and Kaldaklifsá (the river that many channels had formed and material had
Lambafellsá does not enter the glacier and is not involved accumulated along them, forming levee’s, similar to what
here) (Helgason and Oddsson 2010). happens during debris flows (Selby 1993). These channels
Precipitation and stream erosion has washed ash, to a large were mostly rather narrow, or an average of 4 m wide, but
extent, of vast areas on the glacier’s ablation area. There the grew moving further down. A closer examination of air
glacier has deep crevices and channels and is difficult to pass. photos showed that the channels formed two patterns.
In other areas the ash was so thick that it insolated the snow East of the gorge that formed in a glacial outburst on 14
and prevented melting during the summer resulting in less April. (Figs. 4 and 5a, b) are many small channels could be
stream erosion. There thick layers of ash cover the winter seen that were merged into larger channels lower down the
snow of 2010. This ash is partly undisturbed dense fine layers slopes forming a dendritic pattern similar to braided rivers
that water seeps through. These layers can act as slip surface (Fig. 4). West of the canyon where the flank ruptured the
triggering lahars similar to the one that occurred on May 19th circuits are larger and denser, lying parallel to each other and
2010, however, the risk of such flooding is probably much forming a parallel pattern. This type of channels has been
lower than during the summer of 2010. observed were ash slab avalanches have occurred (Manville
et al. 2000). It is expected that these channels had formed
from water erosion, but as described by Austin (1984) on
Aerial and Ground Based Imagery erosion after the eruption of Mt. Saint Helens in 1980,
channels of this type can also occur when the instability of
In the southern part of the glacier extensive evidence of volcanic ash pile causes a chain reaction and collapse within
stream erosion, on the tephra layers was observed during the stack and a retrogressive erosion occurs.
the field trip. Aerial photographs of Samsýn taken in July Density and pattern of channels is determined by how
2010 (Fig. 5e) cast a further light on the status of the tephra much the underlying deficit, namely the density of channels
in the slopes of the glacier. Major changes had occurred becomes greater as the deficit is greater and the slopes are
between May and July. The radar images taken in mid- longer (Tamio Chine 1986). The formation of channels will
May were a few traces of tephra slab avalanches were be influenced by roughness of the tephra, but commonly this
Lahar, Floods and Debris Flows Resulting from the 2010 Eruption of Eyjafjallajökull... 439
Fig. 5 Aerial and ground based imagery
pattern occurs where tephra grain size is similar to sand. blown off or washed out to sea. Something in the range of
Channels of this nature are usually formed a few days after 400,000 m3 has been bulldozed out of river channels of
the ash fall (Manville et al. 2000). The SPOT satellite image Svaðbælisá and Holtsá. Excavation by contractors in the
taken on 16 September 2010 (Fig. 5f) shows the significant area is about 4 % of the tephra that fell below the ablation
changes had occurred from July (Fig. 5e) to September zone the aforementioned rivers.
despite the unusually low rainfall during the summer. A The next years ash on the glacier’s ablation areas will
satellite image from 2003 was used for comparison be eroded relatively quickly by streams. As mentioned
(Fig. 5d). One can see that the drainage channels at the above, there are about 16 mi. m3 of material on the south
glacier had reached in some places up to 10 m wide and side and about 9 mi. m3 of which are within the ablation
eroded into glacial ice. Commonly, the channels reduce as area of the catchments Holtsá, Svaðbælisá, Laugará and
they become larger and the size is determined partly by the Kaldaklifsá.
number of precipitation days (Selby 1993; Horton 1945). The thickest ash layers are high up on the glacier and are
SPOT image shows that much material was washed from covered with snow. Ashes that fell above the equilibrium
the bottom of the glacier below the current equilibrium line line about 1,200 m.a.s.l. will submerge into the glacial ice. It
to the west, northeast and south. passes down to the ablation zone by moving ice over a long
period of time, and when it arrives there it will be eroded by
melt water. This process takes decades. The volume of this
Results tephra is about 38 mi. m3 and it is estimated that about
8 mi. m3 thereof have fallen in the drainage basin of Holtsá,
It is clear that large amount of material is still on the moun- Svaðbælisá, Laugará and Kaldaklifsá.
tain and the foothills. Photos taken before and after the
eruption tell more than thousand words (Fig. 5c). Erosion,
transport and accumulation of tephra during extreme precip- The Lahar Hazard
itation as well as ordinary precipitation events will transport
the ash steadily down to the lowlands. It is difficult to There less danger of lahar in winter when the ash layers are
estimate how much material has washed down and deposited frozen. The hazard has also decreased due to channel
in the channel controls, as well as part of the material has forming in the ash pile disturbing the layering. Historical
sources indicate that mud flow hazard can last up from

several months to several years, or until the ash on the References
surface runs short (Manville et al. 2009).
Austin SA (1984) Rapid erosion at Mount St. Helens. Origins
11(2):90–98
Chinen T (1986) Surface erosion associated with tephra deposition on
The Landslide Hazard Mt. Usu and other volcanoes environmental science. Hokkaido J
Grad Sch Environ Sci, Hokkaido Univ Sapporo 9(1):137–149
The Meteorological Office has monitored the area since the Helgason JK, Oddsson B (2010) Mudflow hazard in the south sides og
Eyjafjallajökull. Icelandic Meteorological Office, Memo: JKH/BO-
eruption ended and recorded ten landslides in the vicinity of
2010-01, in Icelandic
the settlement. Natural Museum (NM) and the Meteorologi- Horton RE (1945) Erosional developmentof streams and their drainage
cal Office (IMO) run a landslides database in Iceland. Infor- basin; hydrophysicalapproach to quantitative morphology. Bull
mation about landslides have either been acquired from Geol Soc Am 56:275–370
Iversen RM (1997) The physics of debris flows. Rev Geophys
books, from individuals having local knowledge or people
35(3):245–296
with direct observations. A report by Saemundsson (1997) Jensen EH (2010a) A debris flow by Steinar IV in Eyjafjöll, Aug 7.
traces the history of landslides and rock falling under 2010. Icelandic Meteorological Office, Memo dated 19.08.2010, in
Eyjafjöll (foot slopes of Eyjafjallajökull) during the period Icelandic
Jensen EH (2010b) A debris flow east of Steiar IV in Eyjafjöll Sept 25.
1925–1997. There are 16 recorded landslides, mudslides and
2010. Icelandic Meteorological Office, Memo dated. 20.11.2010, in
falling rocks in that period. After the eruption in 2010, 10 Icelandic
events were recorded so clearly, mass movements and Jensen EH, Brynjólfsson S, Sverrisdóttir G, (2010) Mudflow in
stream erosion are more frequent after the ashes deposited Steinalækur July 12. 2010. Icelandic Meteorological Office and
Institute of Earth Science, University of Iceland, Memo dated
on the mountain (E.H. Jensen 2010a, b; Jensen et al. 2010).
20.7.2010, in Icelandic
Kjartansson G (1951). Water floods and mud flows. The eruption of
Conclusions Hekla 1947–1948. II. 4. Soc. Sci. Isl. 51pp. Horton, RE (1945)
The study shows that satellite and radar images can be of Erosional developmentof streams and their drainage basin;
hydrophysical approach to quantitative morphology. Bull Geol
great help in estimating the situation on a mountain after a
Soc Am 56:275–370
volcanic eruption. Radar images are taken during the Manville V, Hodgson KA, Houghton BF, Keys JRH, White JDL (2000)
event area especially valuable in casting a light on the Tephra, snow and water: complex sedimentary responses at an
events. High resolution DEM made with LiDAR technol- active snow-capped stratovolcano, Ruapehu, New Zealand. Bull
Volcanol 62:278–293
ogy can reduce the days needed for fieldwork and is very
Manville V, Németh K, Kano K (2009) Source to sink: a review of three
important in Iceland were the field work season is very decades of progress in the understanding of volcaniclastic pro-
short. cesses, deposits and hazards. Sediment Geol 220:136–161
Sæmundsson Th (1997) Rockfall from Steinafjall eastern Eyjafjöll on
September 12. 1997. Icelandic Meteorological Office, report 97029
Acknowledgments We would like to thank Ingibjörg Jónsdóttir and
Selby MJ (1993) Hillslope materials and processes, 2nd edn. Oxford
Rósa Ólafsdóttir at the University of Iceland and Tómas Jóhannesson at
University Press, New york
the Icelandic Meteorological Office as well as the Icelandic Coast
Guard for use of their data.

Landslide Science and Practice: Claudio Margottini Paolo Canuti Kyoji Sassa

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Claudio Margottini

Paolo Canuti · Kyoji Sassa

Additional material to Volume 1 can be downloaded from http://extras.springer.com

ISBN 978-3-642-31309-7 ISBN 978-3-642-31310-3 (eBook)

Library of Congress Control Number: 2013932640

# Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Printed on acid-free paper

Springer is part of Springer ScienceþBusiness Media (www.springer.com)

Landslide Science and Practice

Background to the World Landslide Forums

Report of the Second World Landslide Forum

Requests of Cooperation for Further Development of ICL and IPL

Claudio Margottini Paolo Canuti Kyoji Sassa

ICL and IPL Secretariat

IPL office: UNITWIN headquarters Buildings, Kyoto University Uji Campus,

IPL Global Promotion Committee including:

• International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS)

Under the Auspices of

• International Association for Engineering Geology and the Environment, Italian

International Organizing Board

• Irina BOKOVA (UNESCO Director-General)

• Michel JARRAUD (WMO Secretary-General)

• Claudio MARGOTTINI (ISPRA, Forum Chair)

• Peter BOBROWSKY (IUGS Secretary General)

Scientific Advisory Board

• Irasema ALCANTARA-AYALA (Vice President of International Geographical Union -

• Giovanni BARLA (Politecnico di Torino, Italy)

Local Organizing Board

• Paolo CANUTI (ICL President - WLF2 Chairperson)

Scientific Programme Committee

• Luciano PICARELLI (Second University of Napoli)

• Thomas HOFER (FAO)

• Filippo CATANI ( University of Firenze)

• Thomas HOFER (FAO)

• Gabriele SCARASCIA MUGNOZZA ( University of Roma "La Sapienza")

Fund Raising and Exhibition

• Claudio MARGOTTINI (ISPRA - WLF2 Chairperson)

Logistics and Administration

Part I Advances in Slope Stability Modelling

Extraction of Rock Mass Structural Data from High Resolution Laser

Experimental Approach for Stability Evaluations of Carrara

Slope Instabilities in High-Mountain Rock Walls. Recent Events on the Monte

Database of Unstable Rock Slopes of Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 423

Gianfrancesco Rocchi and Giovanni Vaciago

(c) Pore water pressure, distinguishing between undrained,

C. Margottini et al. (eds.), Landslide Science and Practice, Vol. 3, 3

Proposed Amendment to the Classification

It is widely recognized that the mechanical behaviour of

CA: Clays with Initial States Above the ICL:

With reference to the framework proposed by Jardine et al.

Fig. 4 Basic elements of clay behaviour – Material type CA

(IDL) and Collapse or Instability Surface (CS or IS), as

Quebec. Report GCT-99-10 prepared for the Ministére des Transports

Xu Xiangning, Chen Yuliang, and Li Shengwen

Introduction dip toward excavation of Diexi Jiaochang of Diexi Seismic

C. Margottini et al. (eds.), Landslide Science and Practice, Vol. 3, 11

Fig. 1 Profile of Diexi Jiaochang landslide induced in 1933s earthquake

Fig. 2 Profile of Daguangbao landslide induced in 2008s earthquake

bonded by clay, with gradient of 50–60 (see Pictures 1

bonded by clay, with gradient of 50–60 (see Pictures 1

–66° –54° has slope angles of approximately 30 with a maximum of

gradient is less than 20 . Deposition of debris started at this