Chowgule Steamships Ltd

A no brainer at 80% discount to NAV!

On the back of unprecedented boom in dry bulk

shipping, Chowgule Steamships Ltd (CSL), a ship
[email protected] owning company, performed spectacularly well in
26 Jun 2008 FY08 and will repeat the feat in FY09 based on already
For Private Circulation Only
Important disclosure on the last page entered into charter agreements. The cash-rich
company is in a position to capitalize on available &
emerging opportunities with seeds of long term
growth already planted.
NAV Rs.248-269 Current Price Rs.49 FY08 P/E 2.2x FY09E P/E 1.3x

Despite an almost assured spectacular 66% PAT growth in FY09E, the company is
currently available at mere 1.3x FY09E EPS and an unbelievable 80% discount to NAV. As
ships are highly liquid and have a ready market, NAV is the most appropriate valuation
method.
Key Data Key Investment Points
Market Cap Rs.1.77bn ƒ Record high dry bulk shipping market and timely addition
US$41.3mn of a panamax enabled CSL to perform spectacularly in
Shares FY08.
Outstanding 36.3mn ƒ Renewal of charters at improved rates will enable another
Yearly High-Low Rs.105 - 25 spectacular growth in FY09 despite reduction in tonnage.
Average Trading No. of shares CSL currently has two panamax, one handymax and three
Volume 57,600 coastal dry bulk vessels.
30 Days 153,600 ƒ One panamax is due for renewal in Jul/Aug-08 and we
365 Days estimate 50% plus rise in day rates.
BSE Scrip Code 501833 ƒ Judicious utilization of significant surplus cash can be
BSE Group B catalyst for growth beyond FY09.
Reuters code CHWG.BO ƒ For long term growth, CSL has already placed orders for
Bloomberg code CHOW IN seven new-built handysize vessels and is investing in a
port-cum-ship repair project.
Shareholding % 31 Mar 08 Value Kickers
Promoters 66.91 ƒ Delays in new-building delivery schedules, as a quarter of
Institutions 0.29 these vessels are being built by new inexperienced
Others 32.79 shipyards.
ƒ Less than contracted conversion from VLCC to VLOC can
Multiple FY09E significantly take pressure off capesize market. Given the
Valuation strong undercurrent in VLCC market, this cannot be ruled
out.
EV/ EBIT 1.4x ƒ If reduction in ship cruising speed to save on bunker cost
Market Cap/Rev 0.7x takes place, this can significantly absorb rising vessel
P/E 1.3x deliveries in later years.
P/BV 0.4x Points of Concern
P/NAV 0.2x
ƒ Forex risk on forex debt. At present, naturally hedged.
ƒ Volatility in shipping earnings (freight rate / charter rate)
Key Ratios FY09E
and ship values. Investors need to closely monitor and
RoE 36.5% distinguish between noise factors and cyclical factors.
D/E Nil

Company Research: Chowgule Steamships Ltd Page 1 of 10

Introduction
Chowgule Steamships Ltd (CSL) is part of 92-year old Goa-based Chowgule group with
interest in a range of industries including iron ore mining & pelletization, shipping,
shipbuilding, automobile distribution, real estate development, explosives, breweries,
industrial salt & gases, education, and machine fabrication.

CSL has a wholly owned subsidiary (WOS) called Chowgule Steamships Overseas Ltd
(CSOL) incorporated in Guernsey. CSOL has three WOSs called Sunshine LLc, Fairweather
LLC and Blue Ocean LLC. These three step-down WOSs are incorporated in the Marshall
Islands. All references to CSL henceforth in this report mean the consolidated CSL entity
including its subsidiary CSOL and its three step-down subsidiaries.

CSL is a ship-owning company and currently has a small fleet of three ocean-going & three
coastal dry bulk vessels. These vessels are chartered out (given on hire) on spot or time
period basis for movement of dry bulk cargoes like iron ore, coal, grain, bauxite, fertilizers,
etc. Among the ocean-going vessels, it has two panamax vessels and one handymax vessel.
It has seven ocean-going (handysize) vessels on order. CSL does not ply ships on its own.

There are various categories of ships depending on the cargo they move. Key categories are
Tankers (for transporting wet cargo like crude oil & petroleum products), Dry bulk vessels
(for transporting dry cargo like iron ore & coal), and Container ships (ships that carry cargo
in truck-size boxes that help in intermodal transport). Then, there are specialized ships to
carry niche cargo.

CSL owns only Dry bulk vessels. There are various types of dry bulk vessels depending on
the size of the vessel:

Ship type Capacity dwt Cargoes

Capesize >100,000 Iron ore, coal, grain
Panamax 60-100,000 Iron ore, coal, grain, bauxite, phosphate
Handymax 40-60,000 Grain, coal, steel, cement, Potash, rice, Sugar, Gypsum,
Handysize 10-40,000 Forest products, scrap, sulphur, NFM Ores, Vehicles, Salt

As mentioned earlier, CSL has two panamax and one handymax at present. It has ordered
seven handysize vessels.

Buying & selling ships (vessels) is a more or less regular activity with most ship owners
depending on their market outlook. In FY08, CSL bought a handymax in April-07 and sold a
panamax in Jan-08.

Shipping is a highly cyclical business. Managing shipping cycles by adding assets (ships) at
early stage of the cycle and selling assets near the peak of the cycle are the key and most
important success factors. As new ship building takes time (currently three years for a dry
bulk vessel), ordering of new ships has to take place much in advance for the assets to be
ready for plying in time to benefit fully from the cycle.

Chowgule group, the promoters, owned 67% of CSL at the end of Mar-08. Their holding
remains unchanged since Sep-2002. Institutional investors’ holding was negligible at end
Mar-08.

Impetus Advisors -Company Research: Chowgule Steamships Ltd Page 2 of 10

Key Investment Points
Unprecedented boom in dry bulk shipping continues unabated
Dry bulk shipping segment has been on a cyclical upswing since 2003, though with
significant volatility in the interim. Iron ore & coal import by China, steel export by china,
thermal coal & met coke import by India have been but some of the drivers of dry bulk
trade growth globally. Supply side has been constrained by years of under investment in dry
bulk ship capacity, as dismal performance of the segment prior to 2003 dissuaded
investment in the segment. By the time, the sustainability of growth in global dry bulk trade
was realized; ship building yards’ capacities were booked by tankers. Driven by twin impact
of demand explosion and supply constraint, both ship values and ship earnings have
reached record levels. These figures achieved their highest levels so far in the month of
Nov-07. Though there has been a decline from these levels post Nov-07 especially in the
capesize segment, these are still higher than a year ago period and previous record peak in
2004.

The fall post Nov-07 record peak has largely been due to noise factors that cause significant
volatility in shipping earnings. These noise factors are often temporary supply side factors
that cause temporary peaks & troughs. The unexpected fall post Nov-07 was due to two
such noise factors:

• An accidental closure of a Brazilian iron ore port.

• Farmers’ strike in Argentina, which is a large exporter of agricultural cargo.

Due to these two incidents, many vessels were suddenly released in the spot market
causing freight/ charter rates to plummet.

The record high ship earnings & values enabled strong financial performance of CSL in FY08
and strengthening of its balance sheet. Timely acquisition of Providence, a handymax
vessel, in Apr-07 helped too. We expect a significantly stronger performance in FY09.

90,000 1-year time charter rates ($/day)

80,000
Panamax 70/72k dwt
70,000
Handymax 40K dwt
60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0
2001‐03
2001‐06
2001‐09
2001‐12
2002‐03
2002‐06
2002‐09
2002‐12
2003‐03
2003‐06
2003‐09
2003‐12
2004‐03
2004‐06
2004‐09
2004‐12
2005‐03
2005‐06
2005‐09
2005‐12
2006‐03
2006‐06
2006‐09
2006‐12
2007‐03
2007‐06
2007‐09
2007‐12
2008‐03

Impetus Advisors -Company Research: Chowgule Steamships Ltd Page 3 of 10

Analysis of FY08 Financial Performances: A spectacular performance
Consolidated
Rs.mn Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Mar-08 Comments
No. of months 3 3 3 3 12
Operational
Months for vessel
Messenger 3 3 2 3 11 Dry-docked in Dec-07. Renewal
in Jan-08 at significantly higher
rate
Providence 3 3 3 3 12
Coastal vessels-3 3 3 3 3 12
Explorer 3 3 3 1 10 Sold at the end of Jan-08 for
$35.2mn
Triumph 3 3 3 3 12 Renewal from end of Aug-07at
higher day rate
Revenues 424 442 507 556 1,928
Manning & staff 170
cost
Brokerage, 117
Agency fee
Fuel oil, lubricants 45 Cost of fuel (bunker) to run ships
is borne by charterers and not by
ship-owners
Stores & spares 46
Insurance 47
Other Expenditure 111
Dry docking exp 165
Depreciation 288
EBIT 940
Other income 110 Rent on properties, Interest on
surplus fund
Interest 123 Largely on Fx debt in Indian
company
PBT 166 170 195 396 926
Extra ordinary Fx gain in the first three quarter.
Income 82 30 11 733 857 Fx loss & profit on sale of ship in
the fourth quarter. Fx gain/loss
relates to Fx debt only.
Tax -36 - 26 -5 - 55 - 123 Co opted for regular tax and not
Tax/PBT % 14.6% 13.2% 2.5% 4.9% 6.9% tonnage tax. It pays regular tax
on income of Indian vessels and
no tax on vessels (Explorer,
Triumph) in the subsidiary.
PAT 212 174 200 1,074 1,660
Adjusted PAT 130 144 190 341 803
Equity Capital 363
Annualized EPS 14.29 15.81 20.88 37.52 22.13
(Rs)
Adj PAT Margin 30.6% 32.5% 37.4% 61.3% 41.7%
(%)

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Renewal of a panamax is due in Jul/Aug-08: We estimate 50%+ rise in day rate
Global Triumph, a panamax vessel, is due for renewal in Jul/Aug-08. This vessel accounts
for 36% of CSL’s total capacity at present. The vessel is currently deployed at $51,500/day
on a one-year time charter, which come to an end in Jul/Aug-08. The recent one-year time
charter fixtures for similar vessels have taken place at around $80,000/day. This implies a
likely rise of about 55% in day rate for 36% of the capacity. We estimate that this would
add an additional Rs.320mn to the company’s consolidated PAT.

FY09 performance to be significantly better than that in FY08

CSL has already sealed bulk of the FY09 performance through long term period charters at
attractive day rates. As long term charter agreements are in place, CSL’s earnings are
largely insulated from changes in dry bulk market in FY09. We estimate CSL’s Revenues to
grow 25% and PAT to grow 66% in FY09. This is despite sale of Explorer, a panamax vessel,
towards the end of FY08.

Consolidated Rs.mn FY08 FY09 YoY

Revenues 1,928 2,419 25.5%
PAT Adjusted 803 1332 65.9%
EPS (Rs.) 22.13 36.70 65.9%

Key drivers of growth will be renewals done at higher rates in FY08 for Triumph &
Messenger, renewal of Triumph in Jul/Aug-08, absence of any dry-docking & special survey
in FY09. Dry docking/special surveys have dual adverse impact on revenues and profits:

• For the duration of dry docking/special survey, the vessel does not earn any thing
• Dry docking/special survey, which happens every two and a half years, implies large
lumpy repairs & maintenance expenditure in the period in which it takes place.

Judicious utilization of surplus cash & leveraging capacity to determine

growth beyond FY09
CSL sold Explorer, a panamax vessel, at the end of Jan-08 for $35.2mn. This coupled with
strong earnings in FY08 enable it to have surplus funds of $35-38mn at year end after
paying $8mn advance towards two handysize vessels. It has forex debt of $28.5mn out of
$30mn it borrowed to fund acquisition of Providence, a handymax vessel, in Apr-07. This
debt is repayable over a period of eight years. CSL, which is net cash positive and has a
net-worth of Rs.3.2bn (as on 31/03/08) has substantial unutilized leveraging capacity and
surplus cash to be deployed gainfully for driving growth beyond FY09. Part of the surplus
cash has been committed towards acquisition of seven to-be-built handymax vessels
including the two contracted to be built in FY08.

CSL has been in coastal shipping for long and has a small presence with three small vessels
that earned it an estimated revenue of Rs.100mn in FY08. These were deployed with
Ultratech Cement on the west coast. With the onset of monsoon, these vessels are now
deployed on spot. Coastal shipping holds immense potential in India, as India has long
coastline dotted with many major and minor ports; and water transportation is significantly
cheaper than road/ rail transportation. Despite the potential, it could not be capitalized due
to lack of adequate infrastructural support (port connectivity, navigational facilities, etc) by
state and central governments. Yet, CSL seems to be hopeful and plans to add a couple of
coastal vessels to its fleet. It does not want to ignore coastal shipping having been in this
segment for long.

Impetus Advisors -Company Research: Chowgule Steamships Ltd Page 5 of 10

Judicious use of available cash & leveraging capacity is important and can go a long way in
determining its financial future. We shall evaluate its plans on this count as and when these
are known.

Two initiatives taken towards Long-term performance

• Placed Order for new building of seven handysize vessels
• Approved investment in a port-cum-ship repair project

Placed Order for new building of seven handysize vessels

CSL placed orders for seven handysize vessels over the last six months with Japanese
shipyards. These will be of 32-37,000 dwt capacity and each of these will cost $40-42mn.
An advance of 10% has already been paid and balance is payable in installments as per
progress in ship building. These new-building acquisitions are normally funded with 70%
debt component. These ships are scheduled to be delivered between Oct-2010 and 2013.
This implies that the company will require a cumulative funding of $86mn ($41mn*7*30%)
by 2013 besides debt funding. Of this, about $29mn has already been paid. The balance
$57mn can be paid out of internal accruals, as we estimate it to make an after-tax profit of
$31mn and cash accruals of $37mn in FY09. It has $15-18mn in cash. After making
repayment of $3mn towards debt, it still will have about $49-52mn to be paid towards
seven handysize vessels at the end of FY09 itself. Then, there is always the option to sell
under construction vessels if prices shoot up over the contracted price. Currently, there is
not much difference in the contracted price and the price at which these under construction
ships can be sold, as they have just been ordered. However, given the scarcity of berths at
shipyards, there is a possibility that these vessels can command premium even during
construction going forward. This brings forth two points clearly:

• It will not have to resort to dilutive equity funding.

• As only part of the cash accruals of FY09 will be utilized towards paying for seven
handysizes (part being used out of FY10-FY13 cash accruals), there will be enough
cash accruals to fund other growth drivers.

Why Handysize?
If one has to invest in dry bulk segment, handysize segment appears to be the most
sensible choice at the moment for the following reasons:

• The order-book size is the smallest in this sub-segment of dry bulk.

• Age profile of world handysize fleet is such that these will be the first ones to go
for scrapping in sizeable numbers.
• These smaller vessels can go to all ports, as the draft depth required is small.
• These smaller vessels are versatile & adaptable, as these can carry all kinds of
dry cargo. This is not the case with larger vessels.

These positives are countered by the only negative that the cost/unit of cargo carrying is
higher in smaller vessels than that in larger vessels. However, looking at the order-book
sizes and delivery & scrapping schedules of larger vessels particularly capsizes, handysize
vessels’ advantages outweigh the only disadvantage it has.

Approved Investment in a port-cum-ship repair project

Chowgule Ports & Infrastructure Ltd (CPIPL), a special purpose vehicle (SPV) co-promoted
by CSL, recently signed a 50-year concession agreement with Maharashtra Maritime Board
(MMB) for development of a minor port at Jaigarh (Dist. Ratnagiri). CPIPL will have two
subsidiaries—one for port operations with two berths initially and another for ship repair

Impetus Advisors -Company Research: Chowgule Steamships Ltd Page 6 of 10

facility. A ship lift facility, a better alternative to dry docking, is being planned here.
Chowgule group will hold 51%, MMB 11% and strategic partner/s will hold the balance 38%
stake in CPIPL. CSL’s share out of Chowgule group’s 51% is not yet known. The Rs.5bn
project will be executed over next five years. Of Rs.5bn project cost, equity portion will be
Rs.1.5bn. Chowgule group’s equity investment will be to the tune of Rs.765mn ($18mn).
Civil work is scheduled to start post monsoon and commissioning is expected after three
years in phases. This is a long gestation project and we do not expect CSL’s equity
investment to be more than Rs.390mn ($9mn).

Throw-away valuation makes it a compelling investment

• Available at 80% discount to NAV (CMP Rs.49, NAV range Rs.248-269)

• P/E of 2.2x FY08 actual adjusted earnings and 1.3x FY09 estimated adjusted
earnings

NAV Calculation Jun-08

Vessels Vessel Cap Built Value Range
type (dwt)
US$ mn
Messenger Panamax 71,252 1995 65 70
Providence Handymax 47,574 1995 50 55
Global Triumph Panamax 72,870 1996 65 70
Courage Coastal 2,053 1994 10 10
Crystal ships 3,500 1997
Coral 3,427 2000
Value of Vessels 190 205
Cash in subsidiary 15 18
Real Estate (at book value as
per Mar-02 revaluation, 4 4
market value much higher)
Advance for 7 Handysize 28 28
vessels
Total Value of Assets 238 256
Debt 29 29
Net Asset Value 209 227
Shares outstanding (Nos.) 36,308,425
NAV per share (Rs.) 248 269
Current Market price per 49 49
share (Rs.)
Appreciation Potential 407% 450%
Discount on NAV 80% 82%

Impetus Advisors -Company Research: Chowgule Steamships Ltd Page 7 of 10

Risks / Concerns
Forex risk due to INR/USD fluctuations –naturally hedged at present
CSL has $28.5mn forex debt in the Indian company. As per extant accounting requirements,
change in the debt post conversion into INR due to fluctuations in INR/USD rate is adjusted
in P&L account. CSL reported pre-tax forex gain of Rs.123mn in the first three quarters of
FY08 on this debt as INR appreciated. It, however, booked a pre-tax forex loss of Rs.29mn
in the fourth quarter of FY08, as INR depreciated marginally. It is likely to book a pre-tax
forex loss of Rs.86mn in QE Jun08, as INR has further depreciated significantly. These are,
however, notional gains & losses until the company is required to actually buy USD to repay
debt. We have, therefore, treated these forex gains/losses as extra-ordinary and adjusted
earnings accordingly.

CSL, however, has a natural hedge to forex risk. As its revenues are denominated in USD,
any loss on debt is covered by a gain in revenues and vice versa. The Indian company is
likely to have revenues of $32mn in FY09 as against forex debt of $28.5mn. The gain on
revenue is, however, not disclosed separately and is an actual gain not a notional one.

The net change in its monetary assets in subsidiaries on conversion is taken directly to
reserves without routing them through P&L account. The gain on huge cash balance that the
subsidiary has at present due to INR depreciation will not be reflected in P&L but will go
directly to reserves. In FY08, some losses would have gone directly to reserves as INR
appreciated in FY08. The subsidiaries, however, did not have significant monetary assets in
FY08.

Risk to ship earnings (time charter day rates) & ship values (NAV)
Cyclical volatility in ship earnings (freight/charter rates) & ship values takes place
depending on how demand & supply are poised for ships in a particular segment and sub-
segment. For dry bulk segment, demand is determined by volume of global trade in bulk
commodities like coal, iron ore, grain, fertilizer etc and distances these have to be
transported. Supply is determined by ship deliveries, ship scrapings, shipyard availability,
etc. Lately, port congestion has sort of become a slightly longer term phenomenon to be
included in cyclical factors rather than short term noise factors given the regularity with
which it’s been happening.

Despite the US slowdown/recession, India & China are likely to continue to drive growth in
dry bulk trade. India is likely to import record quantity of coal this year for its power plants.
The rising interest of Indian businesses in overseas coal mines is an indication towards long
term sustainability of this. There is no let up in growth in china’s iron ore imports this year
so far. While Indonesia is likely to export more coal, South Africa may curtail coal export to
retain more coal for its own power generation. Grain seaborne trade may be lower but
maize & sorghum trade may rise due to EU’s imports from Brazil due to lower harvest in EU.
Steel export from China is uncertain as China continues to increase export duty on steel to
discourage exports.

Growth in supply in 2008 is likely to be at similar level as that in 2007. CY09 may, however,
witness higher deliveries. A factor that may tilt the Capesize market from balance to
negative is conversion from VLCC to VLOC (tankers to Capesize). We understand that actual
conversions are likely to be much less than contacted and some of the delivery schedules
are likely to be pushed back and these may help the market. About a quarter of all under-
construction ships are being built in inexperienced greenfield shipyards. This increases
chances of delays. High crude oil prices have led to high bunker (ship fuel, the dense
residual product from crude refining) costs. Studies show that significant savings can be

Impetus Advisors -Company Research: Chowgule Steamships Ltd Page 8 of 10

made in bunker costs if ship speed is reduced. The savings are significant even accounting
for high cost of increased days for the same voyage. The magnitude of savings is enough
incentive for reduction in ship speed. This will imply significant absorption of increased
deliveries going forward. Clearly, there are more factors impacting demand-supply and new
ones keep emerging in the increasingly dynamic world.

Investors, therefore, need to closely monitor (we shall endeavor to do it for our client-
investors) freight & charter rates. Given the high volatility in these rates, it is important to
distinguish between noise factors and cyclical factors causing the volatility before any
investment or divestment decision is taken. The key to success lies in distinguishing
between the two set of factors.

Conclusion
Last few years have been very good for dry bulk shipping. FY08 has been particularly strong
year. We estimate CSL to do significantly better in FY09 on the back of already confirmed
charter contracts. We notice that CSL is debt-free, cash positive and is therefore ready to
capitalize on available opportunities as well as opportunities that may arise. It has already
taken a couple of steps towards long term growth like ordering more vessels, investment in
port & ship repair projects. It needs to do more to put in place growth drivers for medium
term, particularly for FY10. As always, Investors need to understand, monitor and guard
against risks.

The greatest positive for investors in CSL is very high margin of safety. It is currently
trading at mere 2.2 times FY08 actual earnings (adjusted for one-time items) and a measly
1.3 times FY09 estimated adjusted earnings. NAV is a more appropriate valuation
methodology for a shipping company, as its assets (ships) are highly liquid and reliable
quotes are available. At the current price of Rs.49, CSL is trading at mere 20% of its NAV
(NAV range Rs.248-269), a huge 80% discount! This, to our mind, is a no brainer.

Impetus Advisors -Company Research: Chowgule Steamships Ltd Page 9 of 10

Important Disclosure
This material has been prepared by Impetus Advisors, Mumbai, India (www.impetusadvisors.com).

The views expressed herein correctly reflect Impetus Advisors’ views. Owners, analysts,
and/or employees of Impetus Advisors hold shares of the company.

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About Impetus Advisors

Impetus Advisors, based at Mumbai, is an independent equity research boutique, which specialises
in identifying multi-bagger stock ideas among Indian equities. It provides equity research to high
net-worth, proprietary, and institutional investors.

Besides its own stock picks, Impetus Advisors also provides customised equity research outsourcing
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