Approaches To Valuation
Approaches To Valuation
Approaches To Valuation
Analysts use a wide range of models in practice, ranging from the simple to the sophisticated. These
models often make very different assumptions about pricing, but they do share some common
characteristics and can be classified in broader terms. There are several advantages to such a
classification -- it is easier to understand where individual models fit in to the big picture, why they
provide different results, and when they have fundamental errors in logic.
Discounted cash flow valuation is based upon the notion that the value of an asset is the present
value of the expected cash flows on that asset, discounted at a rate that reflects the riskiness of
those cash flows. Specify whether the following statements about discounted cash flow valuation
are true or false, assuming that all variables are constant except for the variable discussed below:
B. As the expected growth rate in cash flows increases, the value of an asset increases.
D. As the uncertainty about the expected cash flows increases, the value of an asset increases.
E. An asset with an infinite life (i.e., it is expected to last forever) will have an infinite value.
There are two approaches to valuation. The first approach is to value the equity in the firm. The
second approach is to value the entire firm. What is the distinction? Why does it matter?
The following are the projected cash flows to equity and to the firm over the next five years:
Year
CF to Equity
Int (1-t)
CF to Firm
$250.00
$90.00
$340.00
$262.50
$94.50
$357.00
$275.63
$99.23
$374.85
$289.41
$104.19
$393.59
$303.88
$109.40
$413.27
Terminal Value
$3,946.50
$6,000.00
(The terminal value is the value of the equity or firm at the end of year 5.)
The firm has a cost of equity of 12% and a cost of capital of 9.94%. Answer the following questions:
Why might discounted cash flow valuation be difficult to do for the following types of firms?
B. A biotechnology firm, with no current products or sales, but with several promising product
patents in the pipeline.
D. A troubled firm, which has made significant losses and is not expected to get out of trouble for a
few years.
E. A firm, which is in the process of restructuring, where it is selling some of its assets and changing
its financial mix.
An analyst tells you that he uses price/earnings multiples, rather than discounted cash flow
valuation, to value stocks, because he does not like making assumptions about fundamentals -
growth, risk, and payout ratios. Is his reasoning correct?
You are estimating the price/earnings multiple to use to value Paramount Corporation, by looking at
the average price/earnings multiple of comparable firms. The following are the price/earnings ratios
of firms in the entertainment business.
Firm P/E Ratio
CCL 19.12
PLG 23.33
CIR 22.91
GET 97.60
GTK 26.00
B. Would you use all the comparable firms in calculating the average? Why or why not?
C. What assumptions are you making when you use the industry-average P/E ratio to value
Paramount Communications?
Question 1
D. False. Generally, the greater the uncertainty, the lower is the value of an asset.
E. False. The present value effect will translate the value of an asset from infinite
to finite terms.
Question 2
When equity is valued, the cash flows to equity investors are discounted at their
cost (the cost of equity) to arrive at a present value, which is the value of the equity
stake in the business.
When the firm is valued, the cash flows to all investors in the firm (including
equity investors, lenders and preferred stockholders) are discounted at the weighted
average cost of capital to arrive at a present value, which equals the value of the
entire firm (generally much higher than the value of just the equity stake.)
(1) Mismatching cash flows and discount rates can cause significant errors in
valuation.
(2) Not recognizing what the present value of the cash flows measures can also
lead to misinterpretations. For instance, if the present value of cash flows to the
firm is treated as the value of equity, there is an obvious problem.
Question 3
Question 4
A. It might be difficult to estimate how much of the success of the private firm is
due to the owner's special skills and contacts.
B. Since the firm has no history of earnings and cash flow growth and, in fact, no
potential for either in the near future, estimating near term cash flows may be
impossible.
C. The firm's current earnings and cash flows may be depressed due to the
recession. Other measures, such as debt-equity ratios and return on assets may also
be affected.
D. Since discounted cash flow valuation requires positive cash flows some time in
the near term, valuing troubled firms, which are likely to have negative cash flows
in the foreseeable future, is likely to be difficult.
E. Restructuring alters the asset and liability mix of the firm, making it difficult to
use historical data on earnings growth and cash flows on the firm.
F. Unutilized assets do not produce cash flows and hence do not show up in
discounted cash flow valuation, unless they are considered separately.
Question 5
No. Any time a multiple is used, there is implicit, in that multiple, assumptions
about growth, risk and payout. In fact, any multiple can be stated as an explicit
function of these variables.
Question 6
B. No. Eliminate the outliers, because they are likely to skew the average. The
average P/E ratio without GET and King World is 25.16.
(1) Paramount is similar to the average firm in the industry in terms of growth and
risk.
CHAPTER 6
The basic model for valuing equity is the dividend discount model: the value of a
stock is the present value of its expected dividends. This chapter explores the
general model and its permutations tailored for different assumptions about future
growth. It also examines issues in using the dividend discount model and the
results of studies that have looked at its efficacy.
Respond true or false to the following statements relating to the dividend discount
model.
A. The dividend discount model cannot be used to value a high growth company
that pays no dividends.
C. The dividend discount model will find more undervalued stocks, when the
overall stock market is depressed.
D. Stocks that are undervalued using the dividend discount model have generally
made significant positive excess returns over long periods (five years or more).
E. Stocks which pay high dividends and have low price/earnings ratios are more
likely to come out as undervalued using the dividend discount model.
An analyst complains that the Gordon Growth Model yields absurd results. He
presents several problems that he has had with the model. Respond to each of these
comments.
B. The model sometimes yields negative values for stocks, when growth rates
exceed the discount rate.
C. The model yields absurdly high values for other stocks, where the discount rate
is very close to the growth rate.
D. No firm raises dividends by a fixed percent every year. The model's assumption
is unrealistic and the values obtained from it will not hold.
E. Since cyclical firms have earnings which go up and down, based upon economic
conditions, the model can never be used to value a cyclical firm.
Ameritech Corporation paid dividends per share of $3.56 in 1992, and dividends
are expected to grow 5.5% a year forever. The stock has a beta of 0.90, and the
treasury bond rate is 6.25%.
A. What is the value per share, using the Gordon Growth Model?
B. The stock is trading for $80 per share. What would the growth rate in dividends
have to be to justify this price?
A key input for the Gordon Growth Model is the expected growth rate in dividends
over the long term. How, if at all, would you factor in the following considerations
in estimating this growth rate?
C. The growth potential of the industry in which the firm operates is very high.
D. The current management of the firm is of very high quality.
B. What is the value of the stock, using the two-stage dividend discount model?
Church & Dwight, a large producer of sodium bicarbonate, reported earnings per
share of $1.50 in 1993 and paid dividends per share of $0.42. In 1993, the firm also
reported the following:
The firm faced a corporate tax rate of 38.5%. (The market value debt-to -equity
ratio is 5%.) The treasury bond rate is 7%.
The firm expects to maintain these financial fundamentals from 1994 to 1998, after
which its is expected to become a stable firm, with an earnings growth rate of 6%.
The firm's financial characteristics will approach industry averages after 1998. The
industry averages are as follows:
A. What is the expected growth rate in earnings, based upon fundamentals, for the
high-growth period (1994 to 1998)?
E. What is the value of the stock, using the two-stage dividend discount model?
Oneida Inc. the world's largest producer of stainless steel and silver plated
flatware, reported earnings per share of $0.80 in 1993, and paid dividends per share
of $0.48 in that year. The firm is expected to report earnings growth of 25% in
1994, after which the growth rate is expected to decline linearly over the following
six years to 7% in 1999. The stock is expected to have a beta of 0.85. (The treasury
bond rate is 6.25%.)
C. Estimate the value per share, using the three-stage dividend discount model.
There are two approaches to valuing the equity in the firm: the dividend discount
model and the FCFE valuation model. This chapter develops another approach to
valuation where the entire firm is valued, by discounting the cumulated cash flows
to all claim holders in the firm by the weighted average cost of capital, and
examines its limitations and applications.
Respond true or false to the following statements about the free cash flow to the
firm.
A. The free cash flow to the firm is always higher than the free cash flow to equity.
B. The free cash flow to the firm is the cumulated cash flow to all investors in the
firm, though the form of their claims may be different.
C. The free cash flow to the firm is a pre-debt, pre-tax cash flow.
D. The free cash flow to the firm is an after-debt, after-tax cash flow.
E. The free cash flow to the firm cannot be estimated without knowing interest and
principal payments, for a firm with debt.
Lay out how you would get to the free cash flow to the firm (what would you add
and/or subtract to the base number?) from the following measures of cash flow.
A. Net Income
Union Pacific Railroad reported net income of $770 million in 1993, after interest
expenses of $320 million. (The corporate tax rate was 36%.) It reported
depreciation of $960 million in that year, and capital spending was $1.2 billion.
The firm also had $4 billion in debt outstanding on the books, rated AA (carrying a
yield to maturity of 8%), trading at par (up from $3.8 billion at the end of 1992).
The beta of the stock is 1.05, and there were 200 million shares outstanding
(trading at $60 per share), with a book value of $5 billion. Union Pacific paid 40%
of its earnings as dividends and working capital requirements are negligible. (The
treasury bond rate is 7%.)
C. Estimate the value of equity at the end of 1993, and the value per share, using
the FCFF approach.
Lockheed Corporation, one of the largest defense contractors in the U.S., reported
EBITDA of $1290 million in 1993, prior to interest expenses of $215 million and
depreciation charges of $400 million. Capital Expenditures in 1993 amounted to
$450 million, and working capital was 7% of revenues (which were $13,500
million). The firm had debt outstanding of $3.068 billion (in book value terms),
trading at a market value of $3.2 billion, and yielding a pre-tax interest rate of 8%.
There were 62 million shares outstanding, trading at $64 per share, and the most
recent beta is 1.10. The tax rate for the firm is 40%. (The treasury bond rate is 7%.)
The firm expects revenues, earnings, capital expenditures and depreciation to grow
at 9.5% a year from 1994 to 1998, after which the growth rate is expected to drop
to 4%. (Capital spending will offset depreciation in the steady state period.) The
company also plans to lower its debt/equity ratio to 50% for the steady state (which
will result in the pre-tax interest rate dropping to 7.5%.)
B. Estimate the value of the equity in the firm and the value per share.
The average beta of firms competing with Eastman Kodak's health division is 1.15.
While Eastman Kodak has a debt ratio (D/(D+E)) of 50%, the health division can
sustain a debt ratio (D/(D+E)) of only 20%, which is similar to the average debt
ratio of firms competing in the health sector. At this level of debt, the health
division can expect to pay 7.5% on its debt, before taxes. (The tax rate is 40%, and
the treasury bond rate is 7%.)
Santa Fe Pacific, a major rail operator with diversified operations, had earnings
before interest, taxes and depreciation, of $637 million in 1993, with depreciation
amounting to $235 million (offset by capital expenditure of an equivalent amount).
The firm is in steady state and expected to grow 6% a year in perpetuity. Santa Fe
Pacific had a beta of 1.25 in 1993 and debt outstanding of $1.34 billion. The stock
price was $18.25 at the end of 1993, and there were 183.1 million shares
outstanding. The expected ratings and the costs of debt at different levels of debt
for Santa Fe are shown in the following table (the treasury bond rate is 7%, and the
firm faced a tax rate of 40%):
C. Estimate the value of the firm at debt ratios ranging from 0% to 90%.
Bally's is planning to pay down debt and reduce its debt ratio (D/(D+E)) to 50%,
which should raise its debt rating to A (and lower the pre-tax rate to 7.51%). The
tax rate for the firm is 40%. The treasury bond rate is 7%.
B. What will the effect of the debt reduction be on the cost of capital?
Question 1
B. True.
Question 2
F. FCFF = FCFE + Interest Expenses (1 - tax rate) - New Debt Issues + Principal
Repayments
Expected Growth Rate in FCFF = Retention Ratio * ROC = 0.6 * 10.83% = 6.50%
A.
Terminal Value
B. Value of Equity in the Firm = ($11566 - Market Value of Debt) = 11172 - 3200
= $7,972
B.
EBIT(1-
Year Deprec'n EBIT Cap Ex FCFF Term Val
t)
0 $350 $560 $336 $420 $266
1 $364 $594 $356 $437 $283
2 $379 $629 $378 $454 $302
3 $394 $667 $400 $472 $321
4 $409 $707 $424 $491 $342
5 $426 $749 $450 $511 $364 $5,014
Now After 5 years
Cost of Equity = 13.33% 13.33%
Cost of Debt = 4.50% 4.50%
Cost of Capital = 11.56% 11.56%
C. There might be potential for synergy, with an acquirer with related businesses.
The health division at Kodak might also be mismanaged, creating the potential for
additional value from better management.
Question 6
AT Cost
D/(D+E) Cost of Beta Cost of Cost of Firm
of
Debt Equity Debt Capital Value
0% 6.23% 1.01 12.54% 3.74% 12.54% $2,604
10% 6.23% 1.07 12.91% 3.74% 11.99% $2,763
20% 6.93% 1.16 13.37% 4.16% 11.53% $2,912
30% 7.43% 1.27 13.97% 4.46% 11.11% $3,063
40% 8.43% 1.41 14.76% 5.06% 10.88% $3,153
50% 8.93% 1.61 15.87% 5.36% 10.61% $3,265
60% 10.93% 1.91 17.53% 6.56% 10.95% $3,125
70% 11.93% 2.42 20.30% 7.16% 11.10% $3,067
80% 11.93% 3.43 25.84% 7.16% 10.89% $3,149
90% 13.43% 6.45 42.47% 8.06% 11.50% $2,923
FCFF to Firm Next Year = (637 - 235) * (1 - 0.4) * 1.03 = $248.43 million
Question 7
C.
Old
Growth Rate New Value Change
Value
3% $1,978 $2,046 $67
4% $2,358 $2,453 $95
5% $2,905 $3,050 $145
th rate in cash flows to the firm that will yield this value increase?