POLICY BRIEF

PB 20 - 26
April 2020

ENSURING FOOD
SECURITY DURING
THE COVID-19
PANDEMIC:
REVIEW OF SHORT-
TERM RESPONSES
IN SELECTED
COUNTRIES

By Fatima Ezzahra Mengoub

Policy Center for the New South POLICY BRIEF

Ensuring Food Security During the COVID-19 Pandemic:

Review of Short-term Responses in Selected Countries

* A special thanks to Isabelle Tsakok, Senior Fellow, Policy Center for the New South
for her valuable comments

Summary

Food insecurity is not a new concern. Many people around the world are already
undernourished because of several factors, including climatic, economic, and political
factors. Unfortunately, in times of crisis, as currently with COVID-19, food insecurity
becomes more acute and requires urgent intervention to mitigate the negative impact on
people's access to food. Aware of this, many governments have implemented different
short-term measures to tackle this issue. However, it is important to remember that food
insecurity is the result of poorly-managed past food policies, and governments should
take this into account while rethinking their food policies for the future.

Introduction

It is obvious that everyone wants to be food secure, especially in times of crisis. Ideally,
in all situations, all people should have access to nutritious food in order to lead healthy
and active lives. However, in times of crisis, many people might not have access to food
for a number of reasons. These may be financial, or just related to the non-availability of
food in markets because of disruptions to production or food value chains.

The COVID-19 crisis potentially has an impact on food security. To limit the spread of
this highly contagious virus, several countries have implemented containment measures
restricting the movement of the population by ordering them to stay at home. This
situation is deeply impacting our way of life and is leading to a general panic. In light
of these developments, this paper addresses the short-term measures undertaken in
different countries in order to mitigate the impact of this pandemic and their effect on the
population’s food insecurity, especially in relation to vulnerable people.

I. A great number of people are already food insecure and

COVID-19 is making the situation much worse
Food insecurity is not new. Many people around the world already face this issue. The
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations’ 2019 report on the world’s
food security situation showed that, in 2018, more than 820 million people suffered from
hunger and malnutrition (FAO, 2019). An estimated 63% of these people were in Asia,
31% in Africa and 5% in Latin America (FAOSTAT, 2020).

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Many factors explain this dire situation. Some are related to climate change. Long periods
of drought, precipitation variability, scarcity, and delay, and temperature rise are factors
that affect directly agricultural productivity, particularly in rainfed areas. Climate change
thus affects agricultural production, food availability, and prices, leading to increases in
the number of food-insecure people. Climate change impacts are not differentiated on
the basis of economic performance, development levels or the power of states. Climate
change affects both developing and developed countries and causes considerable
damage. For example, in 2016, drought heavily affected agricultural production in the
United States, resulting in a loss of $6 billion (Kogan et al, 2016). Drought-induced losses
in agricultural production amounted to $932 billion in 2011 (Kogan & al.,2019).. The
impact of drought in developing countries is much greater, resulting in food shortages,
hunger, famine, severe health issues, high rates of migration, and sometimes increased
mortality. In the last two decades, 1.5 billion people globally have been severely affected
by drought, with deaths amounting to 0.5 billion (mostly in Africa)

Figure 1: U.S. Drought and WildfiresDisasters in 2011–2016

Source: Kogan et al (2019).

On the other hand, the low use of inputs has a negative impact on agricultural production
and could lead to food shortages, especially in developing countries. In Africa, only
6% of arable land is irrigated (MaMo Panel, 2018). The remaining 94% of arable land
represents risky business since it depends on climate fluctuations. In addition to very
limited irrigation, several technical issues are also at the origin of low agricultural
productivity in Africa, including the extent of use of fertilizers, high yielding varieties, and
mechanization. These elements play a major role in the production function of farmers
and low use of inputs leads to lower agricultural production and higher food prices.

The availability of food depends not only on variables that directly impact agricultural
production. It is also affected by the quality of infrastructure and the performance of
logistics and transport sectors. As food products are perishable, they should be
transported rapidly to markets or stored in a suitable way so that they preserve their
quality and nutritional value. The absence of those conditions lead to high food losses
which reduce the availability of food.

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From a political point of view, violent conflicts are a major factor undermining food
security. Increasingly, the number of undernourished people in conflict-prone countries
is significantly more than in stable countries. In sub-Saharan Africa, the number of
undernourished people in unstable countries increased by 23.5 million between 2015
and 2018. This increase was greater than in other more politically stable sub-Saharan
countries (FAO, 2019). Furthermore, studies indicate that violent conflicts are more likely
to occur in low-income countries, where they are often accompanied by severe famine
(FAO, 2018).

These elements are just a few of the many factors that affect food security. However,
other factors could also affect food security at a time when it is least expected. the
COVID-19 pandemic poses severe health risks to all age groups and also affects
economic performance because many global value chains have been disrupted.

Although it is still early to assess the full impact of the COVID-19 crisis on food security,
there are alarming signals in relation to food accessibility and availability, especially
for vulnerable populations, in both developed and developing countries. Food security
should be taken seriously into consideration in addressing the COVID-19 crisis. For
example, 11% of U.S households were food insecure before this crisis1. This percentage
is expected to increase and will include low-income households if appropriate action is
not taken.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) estimated the impact of the
global economic slowdown on worldwide poverty. According to this model, an economic
slowdown of 1% will increase worldwide poverty by 2% (IFPRI, 2020). As a consequence,
at the global level, the number of poor will increase by 14 million people, with rural
areas especially affected. The impact will of course depend of the duration of the crisis
and the development of the pandemic, but IFPRI simulated scenarios under a specific
hypothesis. According to this hypothesis, only national activities will be paralyzed and
global trade channels are not disrupted.

II. Panic Behavior Related to the Spread of COVID-19

The spread of COVID-19 has led to some panic among consumers. People started
buying food and stockpiling to protect themselves from the situation deteriorating. In
China, 58% of people reported that they stocked food and beverages, especially staple
foods such as rice, flour, and instant noodles (Veeck, 2020). A similar pattern of panic
buying was also apparent among French households, during the week of March 9 to 15,
2020: sales of several food products increased dramatically, in particular pasta, sales
of which increased by 196%, flour by 200%, and frozen poultry by 112%2. Panic-buying
behavior has also been recorded in South Korea, where food sales by online retailers
shot up. For instance, during the first quarter of 2020, canned food sales increased by
268%, rice by 187%, instant noodles by 175%, and prepared meals by 168%3. Panic

1. For 2018. See United States Department of Agriculture: https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-

statistics-charting-the-essentials/food-security-and-nutrition-assistance/.
2. See Nielsen Scantack: https://www.nielsen.com/fr/fr/insights/article/2020/grande-consommation-record-de-
ventes-avant-le-confinement/.
3. See Statista: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102956/south-korea-change-in-online-sales-of-emergency-
foods-due-to-covid-19-2020/.

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buying of food led some countries (e.g. Indonesia and Philippines4) to put in place
restrictions on food purchases. Knowing that the virus is highly contagious and that it is
easily transmitted from person to person, one reason behind restricting purchases is to
limit the close grouping of people, rather than to prevent a shortage of food products.
While it is certainly true that basic food demand is inelastic and that individual food
needs are limited, this hoarding behavior can lead to severe market shortages and a
mismatch between food supply and demand.

For the time being, no panic behavior has been recorded at producer level. Only a
lack of availability of workers has been reported. However, if the pandemic continues
for some time, changes in production processes would most likely result. In addition, a
lack of timely information on food prices and stocks might lead farmers to make wrong
production decisions. Obviously, fresh produce such as vegetables and fruit require
specific growing conditions. Fortunately, new agricultural technologies have enabled
farmers to produce a wide range of crops, and timely market information about food
shortages will help famers make better choices. Furthermore, because of the lack of
information and labor, producers might also lack imported raw materials and intermediate
inputs because of the disruption of global value chains.

At government level, many countries have tried to manage this crisis in order to ensure
food security for the population. With regard to domestic food stocks, governments
have constantly reassured the public and confirmed that considerable stocks of food
are available, meaning no need for households to stockpile food. At the international
level, apart from a few transport and logistics problems, food prices are falling steadily
and the quantities required can be obtained. This situation will persist as long as there
is no recurrence of export restrictions. Past incidents have shown that, in times of crisis,
some countries, in order to protect themselves from the emergence of global shortages,
impose restrictions on food exports to satisfy domestic food demand. Since international
prices of agricultural products are closely linked to the volume of global stocks, export
restrictions can result in price spikes on international markets and can negatively affect
the food security of importing countries.

III. Short-term Measures Undertaken During the COVID-19

Pandemic in Selected Countries
In the face of the pandemic, countries have undertaken several emergency measures.
As of March 27, 2020, a total of 84 countries had introduced or adapted social protection
and employment programs in response to COVID-19. Globally, 283 programs are
currently in place, demonstrating a dynamic response to the pandemic, and government
awareness of the population’s food security concerns. Various schemes have been
adopted. Social assistance is the most widely used, followed by actions in the area of
social insurance and supply-side labor market interventions. Within social assistance,
cash transfer programs are clearly the intervention most widely used by governments.
A total of 58 countries have such programs in place, with 35 introducing new initiatives
specifically to respond to COVID-19.

4. See https://www.foodnavigator-asia.com/Article/2020/03/27/Stop-COVID-19-hoarding-Indonesian-police-and-
Philippines-government-order-purchase-limits.

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Table 1: Social programs in response to COVID-19, as of March 27, 2020

Social assistance programs N. of programs

Cash transfers (conditional and unconditional) 97

Universal one-off cash 2
Childcare support 6
Cash for Work 3
in-kind food/voucher schemes 18
Social pensions 2
School feeding 4
Utility and financial obligation support (waiver/postponement) 18
Global : total 150

Source: Gentilini et al (2020).

The following section gives an overview of measures taken in a few countries with regard
to social assistance aimed primarily at ensuring the food security of the population:

Morocco: The government has taken several measures to address the current crisis.
With regard to food security, formal and informal workers that lose their jobs during the
crisis will receive subsidies from the government directly, from April 6, 20205. Formal
workers will receive 2000 MAD ($195) per month, while informal workers will receive
cash transfers depending on the size their households. Households of two persons or
less will receive assistance of 800 MAD ($78); those of three to four persons will receive
1,000 MAD ($98) and those of more than four persons will receive 1,200 MAD ($118)6.

Paraguay: By Executive Decree No. 78 of March 16, 2020, the government implemented
various social assistance measures aimed at vulnerable populations. These measures
take two forms: cash transfers and the distribution of food baskets. In this capacity,
additional transfers are planned for the Tekoporá social protection program for 167,000
families, and advance payment will be made as part of the Senior Citizen Program (del
Programa de Adultos Mayores) to 207,000 people. Under the Ñandereko Food Security
Program, the government announced 330.000 will benefit from the program. As today,
41,662 families received food aid as food vouchers or kits The social protection program
amount is about 1.4 billion guaraníes ($211 million)7.

Jordan: The Jordanian National Aid Fund (NAF) has announced that because of the
current situation, the government will transfer money to the current recipients of the
National Aid Fund (NAF). The monthly cash transfer program will benefit approximately
100,000 households from March 29. The government has said that the bread subsidy
registration database will be used for a temporary emergency program to support

5. See Ministry of Economy and Finance, March 2020: https://www.finances.gov.ma/fr/Pages/detail-actualite.

aspx?fiche=4977.
6. See Ministry of Economy and Finance, March 2020: https://www.finances.gov.ma/fr/Pages/detail-actualite.
aspx?fiche=4996.
7. See https://www.prensa-latina.cu/index.php?o=rn&id=349597&SEO=anuncian-medidas-en-paraguay-por-
crisis-economica-ante-el-coronavirus.

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households that have been affected by COVID-19 at a rate of 70 JD (approximately

$100) every two weeks. The Ministry of Local Affairs coordinates the distribution of bread
from local bakeries, with deliveries made door-to-door by buses patrolling the localities,
escorted by police officers to deter crowds. NAF beneficiaries will receive the bread free
of charge with the support of municipalities (Gentilini et al, 2020).

Spain: Measures to support families in Spain include ensuring the basic right to food
for vulnerable children affected by school closures. More specifically, a total of € 25
million is being put in place to provide income support (wallet cards, bank transfers,
supermarket vouchers). These measures also include assistance to homeless persons8.
Support will be provided through social services, which will distribute hygiene kits, food,
and drinks during the entire period of the pandemic.

Japan: The government plans to spend more than 20 trillion yen ($190 billion) to address
this crisis. The amount includes cash transfers to improve the access of vulnerable
households to food. Japan has also started a program of school feeding in some
cities such as Osaka, where free lunches are offered to all students at government-run
elementary and junior high schools from April 2020. According to the government, this
program would save parents between 50,000 yen ($470) and 60,000 yen ($552) per
child per year9.

Australia is considering the implementation of cash transfers as part of an economic

stimulus package in response to the virus. The government has announced that about
one in four Australians will receive a cash payment of AUD 750 in their bank accounts.
This includes parents earning less than AUD 130,000 a year, the elderly, veterans, and
the particularly vulnerable10. These measures were due to start on March 31, 2020 and
will cost AUD 4.8 billion.

Taiwan: On the supply side, the government of Taiwan is implementing plans to provide
loans and subsidies to domestic retailers and food service providers. The government
has also considered providing NT$2 billion (New Taiwan dollars; US$66.1 million) in
coupons to be used in night markets, shops, and restaurants, to extend shopping time
and limit the spread of the virus11. According to the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the
coupons can be used in about 140,000 restaurants, 280,000 shopping centers, 10,000
night markets, and 1,700 artistic and cultural venues12.

Rwanda: The government is still working on a protective social plan to mitigate the
impacts of COVID-19 on livelihoods. In the meanwhile, a free door-to-door food delivery
system is being implemented, benefiting nearly 20,00013 households.

8. See https://elpais.com/economia/2020-03-11/escriva-anuncia-una-prestacion-extraordinaria-para-los-padres-
que-tengan-que-cuidar-a-sus-hijos.html.
9. See https://www.mhlw.go.jp/english/new-info/index.html.
10. See http://www.premier.tas.gov.au/releases/ministerial_statement_covid-19_response_measures.
11. See https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3875674.
12. See https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202003040011.
13. See https://www.iol.co.za/news/africa/rwanda-to-deliver-free-food-to-20-000-households-during-coronavirus-
lockdown-45756889.

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IV. Conclusion and recommendations

Food insecurity will always surface as long as there is a vulnerable population in the
world with limited access to food. In times of crisis, whether economic, political, or
health crises, such as that we are experiencing today, the problem of food insecurity
becomes more severe and requires urgent intervention by the public authorities.
Today, many governments are taking this health crisis seriously and are concerned
not only with the health and economic situation, but also with the issue of availability
and accessibility of food, especially for the most vulnerable populations. Governments
have implemented various measures to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic
on food security. It is certainly not easy for governments to set up emergency plans,
given the specific constraints of each country and long-standing structural problems.
Identifying and monitoring vulnerable populations are not easy tasks, especially for
countries implementing social protection systems for the first time. However, the
mobilization of public authorities has been considerable in some countries, especially
in Asia. Regardless of the type of intervention, it is too early at this stage to assess their
effectiveness. Containing the evolution of the pandemic over time is now the only way
to limit the damage, as long as scientists have not found a cure for the virus. Being
aware of the problem and implementing short-term measures is a way to remedy the
shortcomings of the food policies adopted in the past. The problem of food security
is profound, and governments need to consider these difficult circumstances when
rethinking food policies and preparing for possible future crises.

References

• FAO, 2018. Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities
for research and policy making on food security and conflict. Charles Martin-Shields and
Wolfgang Stojetz. http://www.fao.org/3/ca1587en/CA1587EN.pdf
• FAO, 2019. The state of food security and nutrition. Page 3. http://www.fao.org/3/ca5162en/
ca5162en.pdf
• FAOSTAT, 2020. FAO database. Section: food security. Element: number of undernourished
people. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FS
• Gentilini, Ugo (World Bank), Mohamed Almenfi (World Bank) and Ian Orton (ILO), Social
Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: A Real-Time Review of Country Measures.
A “living paper”, version 2 (March 27, 2020). http://www.ugogentilini.net/wp-content/
uploads/2020/03/Social-protection-responses-to-COVID19_March27.pdf
• IFPRI,2020. As COVID-19 spreads, no major concern for global food security yet https://
www.ifpri.org/blog/covid-19-spreads-no-major-concern-global-food-security-yet
• Kogan F, Popova Z, Alexandrov P. 2016. Early forecasting corn yield using field experiment
dataset and Vegetation health indices in Pleven region, north Bulgaria. Ecologia i Industria
9(1):76–80
• Felix Kogan, Wei Guo & Wenze Yang (2019) Drought and food security prediction from NOAA
new generation of operational satellites, Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 10:1, 651-666
• MaMo panel, 2018. Water-wise : smart irrigation strategies for Africa. https://www.mamopanel.
org/media/uploads/files/Irrigation_report_FINAL_ONLINE.pdf
• Veeck, Ann, 2020. WMU researchers study food consumption behavior during COVID-19
pandemic. Western Michigan University. https://wmich.edu/news/2020/03/58581

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About the author, Fatima Ezzahra Mengoub

Fatima Ezzahra Mengoub is an economist at the Policy Center for the News South. She specializes in
agricultural economics and works on several issues related to agricultural growth analysis, economic structural
change, inter and intra-regional agricultural trade, natural resource management and food security. She has
published various articles on the role of agricultural investment, agricultural value chains, productivity and
technological change in agriculture and water management. She has also taught macroeconomics and
microeconomics at the Hassan II Institute of Agronomy and Veterinary Sciences (IAV) and the School of
Governance and Economics (EGE). She holds an engineering degree in agricultural economics from the
Hassan II Institute of Agronomy and Veterinary Sciences and is preparing a doctoral thesis on the impact of
technological changes induced by irrigation on agricultural growth in Morocco.

About Policy Center for the New South

Policy Center for the New South, formerly OCP Policy Center, is a Moroccan policy-oriented think tank based
in Rabat, Morocco, striving to promote knowledge sharing and to contribute to an enriched reflection on
key economic and international relations issues. By offering a southern perspective on major regional and
global strategic challenges facing developing and emerging countries, the Policy Center for the New South
aims to provide a meaningful policy-making contribution through its four research programs: Agriculture,
Environment and Food Security, Economic and Social Development, Commodity Economics and Finance,
Geopolitics and International Relations.

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The views expressed in this publication are the views of the author.

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