Experian 2021

Data Breach
Industry Forecast
Executive Summary

2020 was a year of change and uncertainty. This made for a prosperous climate
among cybercriminals. While nations scrambled to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic,
cybercriminals found new opportunities to strike. As businesses and citizens adjust to a
“new normal,” hackers have likewise honed in on new targets and new means to access
sensitive data certain to wreak havoc in the New Year.

Powerful under the veil of a crisis, tech-savvy hackers Based on our expertise, the top data breach
found the perfect opportunity to steal data from our smart trends of 2021 include the following:
devices, contact tracing applications, rural hospitals, and
frenzied clinics. The application of new technologies to aid • Much of 2020 has been spent racing for a COVID-19 vaccine,
our response to the pandemic have also opened up new threat which is providing an opportunity for cybercriminals to strike.
vectors that in many cases, have yet to be safeguarded. In We predict that these intruders will plot to disrupt vaccine
South Dakota, for instance, an online portal was built early supply chains, sow confusion and spur increased national
in the year to help first responders identify people who had competition, creating a new kind of pandemic warfare.
tested positive for COVID-19. Now, the FBI is investigating
• While working from home was nothing new, a mass transition
a June data breach that exposed the names, addresses,
to remote work provided hackers with a wealth of network
birthdates, and health status of those individuals it intended
targets through connected household devices. Attacks are
to help.1 The result: patient confidentiality was undermined.
getting smarter and more dangerous, and many families are
“Social distancing,” an unfamiliar term only a year ago, will unprepared for this onslaught in the coming year.
continue to be part of our norm in the year to come. Companies
• Contact tracing apps were created to help flatten the curve
have had to quickly navigate the changes brought about by
of COVID-19. However, many don’t employ sufficient security
social distancing guidelines and adapt to remote working
protection, making these new tools a boon for hackers
environments, with cybersecurity looming as an afterthought.
looking to steal shared data in 2021.
With more information being shared across devices and
services, businesses must double down on data protection and • Faster doesn’t always mean safer. High-speed 5G will usher
security to protect against these emergent risks. in amazing new possibilities, but with those advancements
come increased vulnerabilities and risk. These risks are
In the Eighth Annual Edition of Experian’s Data Breach
magnified as billions of connected devices, vehicles and
Industry Forecast, we examine some of the areas that have
sensors increase the surface area for attack. As a result,
become increasingly vulnerable to cyberattack amid the
cybercriminals will certainly find ways to gain access to 5G
COVID-19 era. We also outline five predictions for the data
networks to cause chaos with our cell phones, autonomous
breach industry in 2021.
vehicles, health records and more.
The predictions by Experian Data Breach Resolution are rooted
• More breaches involving personal medical information may
in Experian’s long history of helping companies navigate more
be on the horizon. Much of this risk will come as healthcare
than 50,000 breaches over the past 17 years.
providers rushed to adopt digital and telehealth services
and patients become more comfortable with leveraging
technology for healthcare services.

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01
Vaccine Ripple Effect
PREDICTION
As the world races toward a COVID-19 vaccine, cybercriminals may try to capitalize on global
anxiety by spreading misinformation and conspiracy theories. This has the potential to create global
uncertainty and panic. These same criminals could also plot to disrupt vaccine supply chains and
impact vaccine availability for countries, creating a new kind of pandemic warfare.

This year we have a two-fold prediction. First, social the world were targeting the vaccine itself. For instance, the
media will be a playground for anti-vaccination rhetoric, U.S. Department of Justice accused individuals from China of
which started infiltrating months before COVID-19 vaccine attacking vaccine development and supply chains on behalf
discussions began. Social media companies have been taking of its intelligence service.3 It’s possible this hack was part of
major steps in tackling misinformation from fake accounts a broader campaign of global cybertheft aimed at industries
and coordinated groups churning out disinformation. But such as defense contractors, high-end manufacturing,
there’s a blurred line between misinformation and free and solar energy companies. Hackers from Russia were
speech, which will continue to be defined in 2021. accused of attacking COVID-19 vaccine research. American,
British, and Canadian governments accused the Kremlin,
Many will keep a watchful eye for information that surrounds Russia’s executive branch, of opening a new front in its covert
a vaccine rollout. Some people might be willing to make rash operations against the West amid the worldwide competition
or irrational decisions for vaccine access. Others will be to contain the pandemic.4
suspicious of the intentions behind the vaccine’s fast-paced
development. Both are targets for cybercriminals, who have According to the 2020 Supply Chain Resilience Report from
the ability to manipulate and cause chaos through false global manufacturing network 3D Hubs, 72% of companies have
rumors and misinformation. experienced disruptions to their manufacturing supply chain in
the past decade, with pandemics, natural disasters, and trade
wars being the most common disruptions.5 Unsurprisingly, the
As far back as May 2020, Facebook stated it had
COVID-19 pandemic has been the single greatest disruptive
already removed hundreds of thousands of posts event in the past decade, with 60% of companies stating the
that violated its COVID-19 policies. It put “warning virus disrupted their manufacturing supply chain.
labels” on about 50 million more.2 The year
wasn’t even halfway over.
THE TAKEAWAY:
It turns out this misinformation isn’t just harmful for our society;
it’s expensive. Advertising-fraud cybersecurity firm CHEQ Social media is a source of information for people
estimates $78 billion is lost to it annually. It further estimated around the world. As we enter 2021, we’ll likely see
that health misinformation in particular led to $9 billion in anti-vaccination rhetoric and medical misinformation
unnecessary healthcare costs and other expenditures. reach new highs, sowing social discord and
global chaos. When you read or see inflammatory
As the vaccine rollout begins, our second part of this prediction information, be diligent in researching the source. You
is that cyberattacks like these provide cybercriminals with the should remain vigilant in evaluating the information
potential to bring harm to supplies, supply chains, and cargo you are exposed to and see on social media. If it’s from
shipments, severely disrupting and delaying government a questionable source, do more research to ensure
response efforts. you’re not falling prey to a false information attack. For
any organizations involved in the vaccine distribution
When a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available, global leaders ecosystem, amp up your cybersecurity.
will need to make important decisions about its transport and
the first recipients. Throughout 2020, hackers from around

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02
Home Devices Held for Ransom
PREDICTION
With families spending more time in their households than they have in decades, cybercriminals will
target individuals by using connected devices to carry out attacks. These attacks can be particularly
malicious, going as far as holding wealthy families or celebrities hostage in their homes for ransom.
We predict in 2021 that at least one wealthy family or celebrity will experience a takeover situation
via their connected home devices.

In the past, cybercriminals targeted organizations over 2020, hackers took to one of the most popular social media
individual households. However, the recent transition to sites, Twitter, to virtually hold approximately 130 celebrities,
remote work has been a gift to hackers looking to gain influencers, and political leaders hostage by making false
access to sensitive information and use it to extract cash promises to double bitcoin deposits. As a result, the scammers
from unsuspecting individuals. were able to extract more than $100,000 in cryptocurrency.7

People have adapted to working, going to school, and hosting

Ransomware attacks thrived in the first half
family and social gatherings entirely on their connected
devices. Cybercriminals see an opportunity to target these of 2020, increasing by 72% according to an
individuals, especially those making a sizeable income. analysis of malicious activity published in Skybox
High-income individuals and celebrities are not only easier Security’s 2020 Vulnerability and Threat Trends
for hackers to search for online due to their often-public
Report.8 A transition to targeting the rich and
persona, but also are more attractive targets because of
their ability to pay ransom. In fact, according to research
famous and possibly, even simply, vulnerable
by UK-based Campden Wealth, 28% of ultra-high-net-worth families will be the next iteration of these attacks.
individuals have been a victim of one or more cyberattacks,
yet over a third of those surveyed reported having no With control over home devices, doors, windows, and
cybersecurity plan in place.6 security systems, cybercriminals have the potential to hold
an entire house hostage in exchange for money, information,
Ransomware, a type of malicious software, can commonly or even fame. In the coming year, it’s important to be aware
occur when threats to lockdown or publish a victim’s data are of the possibility of home cyberattacks and prepared in the
used to extrapolate money. While ransomware attacks aren’t event that one occurs.
new, they are getting smarter and more sophisticated. In July

THE TAKEAWAY:
Whether you love it or hate it, working from home will them off entirely when not in use. Be sure to monitor your
most likely be a big part of 2021. Many people aren’t devices when in use and evaluate security technologies
prepared for the data security challenges that come with to safeguard your connected home. Taking these actions,
this trend, giving hackers a window of opportunity to do along with always keeping your home’s data security
their worst. And while smart homes offer convenience in mind, could help prevent you and your family from
and ease, they might not be so smart with the data you becoming the next victim of a cyberattack.
entrust to them. If possible, restrict device access or turn

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03
Without a Trace
PREDICTION
As COVID-19 spread, there were tracking systems put in place for new infections to keep
vulnerable populations safe. Contact tracing applications will probably continue to be developed
to track the spread of COVID-19 around the world. Cybercriminals may seek to exploit these types
of application programming interfaces (APIs) to gain access to personal user information and
wreak havoc in 2021.

Contact tracing apps are a double-edged sword. Widespread It isn’t just cybercriminals looking to break into these
adoption of contact tracing apps could help us minimize networks. Digital activists, or “hacktivists,” are another type of
the spread of COVID-19, but these systems also have the hacker to look out for in 2021. They can be especially active in
potential to leave us vulnerable to cyberattacks—exposing areas of civil unrest or situations involving injustice. According
the private information of thousands of people. Oxford to Politico, hacktivists may be motivated to take down contact
University researchers said as much as 60% of a population tracing apps in an effort to gain notoriety. They may also use
would need to install and use a contact tracing app to identity information obtained by contact tracing apps as a
effectively slow the spread of COVID-19.9 Without proper hidden surveillance tool, or even worse, for cyber espionage.12
security measures in place, over half a country’s population
would have data ripe for a cyberhacker’s picking.

According to a report from Guardsquare, most THE TAKEAWAY:

government COVID-19 contact tracing apps Contact tracing apps, a source for good in the fight
don’t employ sufficient security protections. The against COVID-19, have a downside. Consumers
should do their due diligence to make sure they
report found most of these apps make it easy for stay safe from hackers and scammers in this new
hackers to decompile, attack, and even create frontier. Check to see if your phone carrier can
fake clones of legitimate contact tracing apps.10 help you block numbers from unknown senders.
Utilize call-blocking apps that weed out unidentified
senders. Enabling multi-factor authentication on
How do contact tracing hackers work? Besides finding your device will provide an extra layer of protection
vulnerabilities in the networks and swiping information from unknown assailants. The best way to avoid
directly, they pretend to be contact tracers themselves being a victim of a contact tracing scam? Don’t
and employ tactics such as sending fake text messages to click on strange or unfamiliar links. This a rule
users. Of course, this is all a ploy to trick users into giving up that should be followed at all times, whether you
personal information or opening up access to their email or participate in contact tracing or not.
bank account information.11 Hackers may attempt to access
information through embedded text message links. By
clicking on these links, victims may be downloading malware
onto their devices without knowing it. This gives hackers
access to personal and financial information without the
victim’s knowledge.7

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04
5G Has a Weak Spot
PREDICTION
5G is making its way to your connected devices soon, if it’s not already there.13 It’s a next-
generation wireless technology that’s expected to make waves, from cell phones to self-driving
vehicles. What makes 5G unique is its speed. What makes it concerning is the billions of new
endpoints susceptible to attack.

While there are a number of benefits that come with the The proliferation of technologies embedded in our phones,
implementation of 5G networks, we believe the technologies cars, industrial controls and trusted institutions increases
relying on it may be vulnerable to cyberattacks in 2021. 5G the potential of cyberattacks with the advent of 5G. The
is designed to support a 100x increase in traffic capacity communication systems between devices and infrastructure
and network efficiency.14 What makes 5G implementation present remote attack access for malicious hackers looking
concerning is its predicted use in the automobile and to exploit system vulnerabilities. Increased connectivity
healthcare industries, which require specific security poses a considerable threat to the benefits promised by
requirements — as well as the public’s trust. vehicles that can drive themselves, X-rays on demand, and
lightning-fast cell-phone service.
For example, the advent of 5G networks is poised to unleash
a caravan of self-driving vehicles on the roads. This provides Going forward, security organizations that rely on manual
hackers with the potential to manipulate signals, cause approaches may have a hard time keeping up with the
accidents, and disrupt the logistic chains we rely on. The speedy service of 5G. Digital security that is dynamic and
speed at which communications go back and forth between automated will quickly and effectively address the new
servers and vehicles make these cars highly vulnerable to security threats of 5G networks, and virtualization can help
cyberattacks, where even a momentary disruption can put provide flexibility to respond to unknown future threats.
lives at risk.

In healthcare, 5G is expected to revolutionize telehealth

with its quick speeds and ability to transport data.15 A single
patient can generate hundreds of gigabytes of data in a given
day; these include patient medical records and large image
THE TAKEAWAY:
files such as MRI, CAT, and PET scans. 5G can also be used to
provide medical gadgets to patients, who can then monitor Changes in technologies are on the way with the
and measure their health from home. implementation of 5G. But like any other device
that we rely upon, their connection to an always-
on network leaves them open to cybercrimes and
While this advancement is great for our everyday
security threats, whether it’s your cell phone, car or
lives, it may come at a high cost. We’ll become online healthcare portal. Be sure that your personal
more reliant on our electronic devices, giving devices are restricted or off when not in use and
be aware that “faster” may not always be the same
cybercriminals new and creative ways to extract
as “better.” A more connected world will require a
our personal information. keen focus on cybersecurity measures to keep us
on the road to a bright future.

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05
Digital Health: A Blessing and a Curse
PREDICTION
Yesterday’s patient is accustomed to overwhelming healthcare paperwork and thinks of telehealth
as a lesser alternative to in-person doctor visits. But in 2020, the trend of digital services and
telehealth took off due to social distancing and COVID-19 remote screenings. Offices without
online scheduling or a telehealth plan had to play catch-up in a matter of weeks. We predict
this hurried effort will present an opportunity for major cyberattacks in healthcare, exposing
thousands of patients’ personal and medical records.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services states Healthcare hackers tend to target older systems that lack
the number of telehealth primary care visits increased 350 sufficient security, which means small and underfunded
times in April 2020 compared to pre-pandemic levels.16 With clinics have traditionally been targets for breaches. These
hospitals stretched to their limits, virtual visits became the providers are particularly at risk as they navigate the world
practical means of receiving care at a safe distance. of telehealth, falling even further behind their peers as they
hurry to adopt a system in 2021.
As the telehealth field quickly evolves to become a regular
part of doctor-patient relationships, cybercriminals are Patient privacy aside, a single breach in digital hospital
spotting an increasing opportunity. Personal and medical records has the potential to shut a system or practice’s
records have a high price tag that unlawful individuals can entire network down for days. These attacks can also lead to
cash in on. In fact, a single record can go for anywhere from a massive operations interruption, substantial fines, and the
$250 to $1,000, according to Louis Columbus of Dassault potential for lawsuits on behalf of patients who weren’t able
Systemes.17 This information could be exposed through new to receive care or whose information was exposed.
communication modes and as more healthcare institutions
implement 5G technology (more on that later on).

Cyberattacks are nothing new to the healthcare industry.

However, a rush to develop and implement telehealth THE TAKEAWAY:
technology and a host of other digital health services could
Healthcare organizations are evolving for the
make it even easier for cybercriminals looking to gain access
better offering patients’ easier and faster ways
to private medical records in the coming year.
to conduct business, but it will come at a price
if entities don’t pay attention to cybersecurity.
In 2020, telehealth providers experienced Hospitals and clinics must continue to be vigilant in
a nearly exponential increase in targeted keeping their cybersecurity programs up-to-date
attacks as their popularity skyrocketed — and under regular review. While COVID-19 caught
the world by surprise, 2021 provides organizations
including a 30% increase in cybersecurity with an opportunity to focus on beefing up their
findings per domain.18 cybersecurity programs. If you plan on using
digital and telehealth services, protect yourself by
practicing good security hygiene such as changing
your passwords often and logging out of browsers
immediately after your doctor visit has ended.

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2020 Forecast Scorecard Ratings

Phishing 2020

A+ Cybercriminals’ latest tool in their belts is text-based “smishing,” an identity theft technique
targeting online communities like those around presidential candidates. Fraudulent messages
disguised as fundraising communications are harder to ignore, distinguish, and take advantage of
consumers in a contentious election cycle.

UPDATE
Millions of cell phone users have recently received unsolicited text messages, alleging they
have an unclaimed package for them. The texts include a link that often sends the user to a fake
Amazon website asking for personal information and usually ends up in identity theft. According
to the Better Business Bureau, another scam uses the COVID-19 pandemic to target people
through text messages that encourage people to claim emergency money for groceries due to the
coronavirus outbreak.19

Hacker in the Sky with Data

B With more states installing free public WiFi on city streets, consumer data passing along
on unsecured networks are exposed in the clouds above – digital and physical. Hackers are
deploying drones to steal data from devices connected to public networks.

UPDATE
According to recent research by France-based Synacktiv and the U.S.-based GRIMM, an Android
application used to operate drones manufactured by DJI contains several abusive features.20 These
drones could allow cybercriminals to attack users with malicious applications or fully take over
control of users’ cell phones. RAND, a nonprofit global policy think tank, identified an example in
which a drone flies over a specific area, such as city streets, collecting information on the WiFi
area’s networks. The drone accessed vulnerable systems and connected devices on it to a botnet
full of malware. Such infiltration can lead to distributed-denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks, stolen
data, and hijacked devices. So maybe wait for that file to download over cellular data if you can.

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 It’s a Fake!

A Less entertaining and far more problematic than TikTok videos, deepfake videos use advanced
video and audio technology to create geopolitical confusion that can disrupt commercial
enterprises, financial markets, and governments. These videos may seem real, but they are
constructs of cybercriminals intent on sowing chaos.

UPDATE
Security consulting firm NISOS released a report analyzing an actual deepfake and shared the
audio with Vice’s Motherboard website.21 This deepfake came in the form of a voicemail. The
deepfake, which was a voicemail sent to an employee at an unnamed tech firm, includes a voice
that sounds like the company’s CEO asks the employee for “immediate assistance to finalize an
urgent business deal.” Recognizing the need to combat deepfakes, Microsoft has expanded its
suite of deepfake-spotting technologies and even launched a tool for analyzing videos and still
photos that generates a manipulation score.22 Even banks are beginning to work with financial
technology to counter frauds, and since 2019 deepfakes have grown 20x.

Going Up in Smoke

A- Online activism or “hacktivism” aims to disrupt more than Fortune 500 and blue-chip companies;
emerging industries are also in cybercriminals’ sights. Cannabis retailers, cryptocurrency
entities, and even environmental companies are becoming targets of digital protest.

UPDATE
We gave this one an A- because while there were fewer incidents than we thought there would
be, this prediction did come true. For instance, according to researchers, a software company
was impacted by a recent data breach, which led to the theft of tens of thousands of pieces of
customer information from multiple U.S. marijuana dispensaries.23 The stolen data included photo
IDs, phone numbers, and home addresses – all left online without password protection late last
year, according to experts from vpnMentor. The U.S. government also worked to seize control of
280 illegal cryptocurrency accounts. North Korea allegedly sponsored attackers in their efforts
to hack cryptocurrencies and funnel $250 million in stolen money through a Chinese money-
laundering network.24

Data Here, Get Your Data Here!

C Mobile payments as a safer and seamless way to contactless purchase goods are popping up
everywhere, and so is identity theft. Cybercriminals are exploiting the convenience in point-of-
sale transactions from your local cafe to a stadium beer vendor, especially in larger venues like
concerts and festivals.

UPDATE
Due to COVID-19, our prediction referring to large venues, concerts, and sporting events can’t be
accurate. Despite national shutdowns, Landry’s, a popular U.S. restaurant chain, announced a
malware attack on its point of sale (POS) systems that allowed cybercriminals to steal customers’
payment card information. In January, hackers sold the payment card details of more than 30
million Americans and over one million foreigners on Joker’s Stash, the internet’s largest carding
fraud forum. We’ll wait while you google that site.

This hack was advertised under the name of BIGBADABOOM-III, but according to threat
intelligence firm Gemini Advisory, the attack was committed via POS systems at Wawa, a
convenience store chain based on the East Coast.25

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About Experian Data Breach Solutions
Experian Data Breach Resolution, powered by the nation’s largest credit
bureau, is a leader in helping businesses prepare for a data breach and
mitigate consumer risk following breach incidents. With more than a decade
of experience, Experian Data Breach Resolution has successfully serviced
some of the largest and highest-profile data breaches in history. The group
offers swift and effective incident management, notification, call-center
support, and fraud resolution services while serving millions of affected
consumers with proven credit and identity theft protection products. Experian
Data Breach Resolution is active with the International Association of Privacy
Professionals, NetDiligence, Advisen, the Ponemon Institute RIM Council, and
is a founding member of the Medical Identity Fraud Alliance.

For more information, visit Experian.com/DataBreach and follow us on

Twitter @Experian_DBR.

SOURCES

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2. https://www.consumerreports.org/social-media/social-media- 14. https://www.qualcomm.com/invention/5g/what-is-5g
misinformation-policies/ 15. https://www.telit.com/blog/4-revolutionary-use-cases-5g-healthcare/
3. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/16/us/politics/china-hackers.html 16. https://aspe.hhs.gov/pdf-report/medicare-beneficiary-use-telehealth
4. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/us/politics/vaccine-hacking- 17. https://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2019/10/20/5-strategies-
russia.html healthcare-providers-are-using-to-secure-networks/#665a5be4b40f
5. https://www.3dhubs.com/get/supply-chain-resilience-report/ 18. https://securityscorecard.com/resources/healthcare-industry-telehealth-
6. http://www.campdenresearch.com/content/private-confidential-cyber- cybersecurity-risks-report
security-report 19. https://www.whsv.com/content/news/Better-Business-Bureau-warns-of-
7. https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/pr/three-individuals-charged-alleged- coronavirus-text-message-scam-568904871.html
roles-twitter-hack 20. https://www.cyberscoop.com/dji-drones-china-android-application/
8. https://www.skyboxsecurity.com/blog/vulnerability-and-threat-trends- 21. https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/27/21339898/deepfake-audio-voice-
report-2020-key-findings/ clone-scam-attempt-nisos
9. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/03/why-coronavirus-contact-tracing- 22. https://techcrunch.com/2020/09/02/microsoft-launches-a-deepfake-
apps-havent-been-a-game-changer.html detector-tool-ahead-of-us-election/
10. https://www.guardsquare.com/en/blog/report-proliferation-covid-19- 23. https://www.newsweek.com/thsuite-data-breach-marijuana-dispensaries-
contact-tracing-apps-exposes-significant-security-risks personal-information-leaked-exposed-1483645
11. https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/how-recognize-and-report-spam- 24. https://threatpost.com/doj-aims-to-seize-280-cryptocurrency-accounts-
text-messages#spam used-by-hackers/158757/
12. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/06/coronavirus-tracking-app- 25. https://www.zdnet.com/article/wawa-card-breach-may-rank-as-one-of-
hacking-348601 the-biggest-of-all-times/