Technological Forecasting & Social Change 161 (2020) 120317

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Technological Forecasting & Social Change

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/techfore

Technology policy and environmental quality at crossroads: Designing SDG T

policies for select Asia Pacific countries
Avik Sinhaa, , Tuhin Senguptaa,b, Tanaya Sahac
⁎

a
Centre for Excellence in Sustainable Development, Goa Institute of Management, India
b
Department of Information Technology and Operations Management, Goa Institute of Management, India
c
Department of Comparative Literature, Jadavpur University, India

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Keywords: Since the inception of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Asia Pacific countries are facing difficulties in
Sustainable Development Goals attaining the SDG objectives, as maintaining the environmental quality has been a challenge for them. In this
Technology policy study, we have revisited the technology policies of these countries, and in doing so, we have tried to address the
Research and development problem of environmental degradation, while addressing the issues of sustainable economic growth, clean and
Asia Pacific
affordable energy, and quality education. In this pursuit, we have designed two indices for environmental de­
Environmental quality
gradation and technological advancement, and then analyzed the association between them following the
Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Following IPAT framework, and by using quantile approach,
over a period of 1990–2017, we have found that the turnaround points of EKCs rise with the rise in quantiles, i.e.
quantiles with low pollutions are having turnaround points within sample range, whereas quantiles with high
pollutions are having turnaround points outside sample range. Using Rolling Window Heterogeneous Panel
Causality test, unidirectional causality has been found running from technological advancement to environ­
mental degradation. Following the results obtained from the analysis, we have tried to address the objectives of
SDG 13, SDG 4, SDG 8, SDG 9, SDG 7, and SDG 10.

1. Introduction malnourished populace increased from 0.777 billion to 0.815 billion

during 2015–2016 because of conflicts, droughts, and events associated
The UN initiative of “Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for with climate change. Considering that only 12 years are left to meet the
Sustainable Development” was enforced with the aim to initiate 17 global deadline, we must develop a sense of urgency. Ensuring that actions are
Sustainable Development Goals (SDG's) on 1st January 2016. These focused toward the needed urgency and to meet the respective goals,
SDGs are unique in the sense that they urge all the developed and de­ we not only need evidence about our current status, but we also need to
veloping countries to contribute toward a better world for future gen­ forge partnerships between policy makers and different stakeholders at
erations. It is evident that nations around the globe should unite to­ all levels.
gether to formulate sustainable industrial practices and living Among the 17 SDGs, SDG 13 primarily concentrates on climate
conditions. The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2018 suggests change mitigation, and accomplishing it has been a major challenge
contrasting picture about the present progression in the various aspects from the perspective of policy directive in the developed as well as
of SDG's considering 2030 target agenda. For instance, on one hand, developing nations (Baumeister 2018; Bisbis et al., 2018; Sinha et al.,
there has been a significant decline (35%) in the maternal mortality 2018). This is further substantiated by recent research on the con­
rate in the Sub-Saharan Africa, about 40% decline in child marriages in cerning carbon emission levels as envisaged for 2018 (Quéré et al.,
South Asia, and accessibility to electricity has become twofold in the 2018; Figueres et al., 2018). The emissions projections predict that
least developed countries. On the other hand, more than 2.3 billion industrial carbon emissions will reach to 37.1 billion tonnes, an all-time
people do not have convenience to basic sanitation, 892 million people high, in 2018. The total carbon emissions (includes emissions from land
still practice open defecation and more than 1 billion people living in activities such as deforestation) are expected to touch 41.5 billion
the villages face dearth of electricity, and 9 out of 10 people of the tonnes. The “Global Carbon Project” declared the findings on 5 De­
urban areas inhale contaminated air. Furthermore, the number of cember 2018 at the “24th Conference of the Parties to the United

⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (A. Sinha), [email protected] (T. Sengupta), [email protected] (T. Saha).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120317
Received 1 April 2020; Received in revised form 13 July 2020; Accepted 13 September 2020
0040-1625/ © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A. Sinha, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 161 (2020) 120317

Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” (COP24) in Kato­ means of technological innovation and targeting environmental de­
wice, Poland. The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2018 has re­ gradation, present study aims touching upon other SDG objectives, and
corded the year 2017 to be a hottest year with temperature 1.1 °C above thereafter, designing suitable policies based on the study outcomes. The
that of the pre-industrial period (United Nations, 2018). In addition, the United Nations report (Asia and the Pacific SDG Progress Report 2017)
World Meteorological Organization has shown that the global tem­ on Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific specifi­
perature reached the highest from 2013 to 2017. This calls for urgent cally mentions that Southeast Asia have made “no progress towards
and meaningful mitigation actions for tackling the problem of climate SDG's on climate action”. It is envisaged that the region would ex­
change. To fulfill climate change mitigation, a notable outcry is the perience a 6 °C increase in temperature with the culmination of this
utilization of clean energy as an effective energy policy around the century. This could have serious impact on weather, agriculture, po­
globe, which shifts our attention for the time being on SDG 7 (Afford­ pulation migration etc. The report also finds that the medium and high-
able and Clean Energy), which is one of the measures that will help SDG tech industry growth in the Asia-pacific region is not sufficient to meet
13 (Climate change) meet its target. According to the current trend the 2030 SDG target. Therefore, it highlights the importance of tech­
presented in the report, it is expected that the share of renewable en­ nology and infrastructure in meeting the SDG target. Lastly, the current
ergy will reach about 21% of the total energy consumption by 2030. trend of economic growth needs to be reversed for fulfilling SDG Goal 8.
The implementation and use of green and clean energy are subjected to For this reason, a comprehensive policy (environmental quality, tech­
various aspects like current economic growth of the country, the nology and economic growth) needs to be in place to address the issues
amount of foreign direct investments in the form of cleaner technolo­ of Asia-Pacific region from the perspective of 2030 SDG Goal target.
gies, and the domestic policy of the nation toward clean energy use There lies the policy-level contribution of the study.
considering their internal micro-economic factors (Amri et al., 2019; In order to achieve this policy-level contribution, suitable analytical
Chen et al., 2020). Therefore, it is quite evident that the presence of and methodological frameworks are required, so that the policy-level
green technology is an important parameter to promote clean energy contributions are complemented. Now, in order to design an effective
and tackle climate change. However, to implement green technology policy framework, then the analytical framework should be able to
for both short and long run, there is need for investment in R&D and capture the evolutionary impact of the policy instruments on the target
innovation (Avom et al., 2020; Khan et al., 2020). Hence, there is a policy variable, and it is possible through the Environmental Kuznets
need to focus on SDG Goal 9 (Resilient Infrastructure, Sustainable In­ Curve (EKC) hypothesis framework. Application of this theoretical
dustrialization and Foster Innovation) coupled with environmental framework has given the study a tractability to exemplify the con­
awareness through quality education (SDG Goal 4). As per the report, textual development in a much comprehensive manner, and therefore,
there is 19% reduction in carbon intensity from 2000 to 2015. In ad­ the anticipated model outcomes might be capable of recommending
dition, of the aggregated global manufacturing value in 2015, about closely exact consequences for this context, which can be imitated in
44.7% (of which 34.6% belongs to the developing economies) is from case of other emerging economies around the globe. Now, this analy­
the medium and high technology sectors. Further, the report states that tical framework needs a suitable methodological adaptation, so that the
approximately 617 million children of both the primary and lower evolutionary impact captured through analytical framework can be
secondary schools are not able to accomplish minimum expertise in complemented. While considering this aspect, it also needs to be re­
reading, thereby highlighting the lack of quality education for membered that the design of an effective policy framework necessitates
achieving environmental awareness. Moreover, following the results encompassing the entire spectrum of data, so that the policy suggestions
obtained by Zafar et al. (2020), it can be understood that the deficiency can be focused at various levels of the target policy parameters. In order
in educational attainment not only lowers the environmental aware­ to comply with this requirement, Bootstrap Quantile Regression has
ness, but also impedes the research and development process within a been employed, so that the entire spectrum of the data can be en­
nation. Without the proper educational infrastructure in place, it might compassed in the analysis, and the policy decisions can be provided at
not be possible for the policymakers to enable the public-private part­ various levels of the target policy variable, defined by quantiles. This is
nerships for enhancing the environmental awareness. Hence, it can be how the methodological and analytical complementarity of the policy-
said that tackling climate change will not be feasible without under­ level contribution of the study has been ascertained.
standing the devising policies for SDG 13, rather SDG 7 (affordable and Along with this, two indices have been introduced in this study, i.e.,
clean energy) and SDG 9 (Innovation and Infrastructure) coupled with environmental index and technological index, to make the analysis
SDG 13 should be addressed together to bring in a sustainable policy in more comprehensive. In the environmental index, we included the
the interface of technology, R&D and innovation, environmental major air pollutants, which are CO2, CH4, N2O, PM2.5, and other
quality, and economic growth. This will not only foster long run sus­ greenhouse gases, whereas, in the technological index, we did include
tainable economic growth (SDG Goal 8) but also contribute toward government expenditure in R&D, amount of technical cooperation
reducing inequality among countries in the long run (SDG Goal 10). In grants, number of researchers in R&D, and number of patent and tra­
this way, integrating SDGs would help policy makers to tackle the demark applications.1 The reasons behind designing these two indices
pressing issues in a comprehensive manner in the short as well as long are: (a) the target policy variable in this study is environmental de­
run. gradation, which is indicated by air pollution. Now, the indicator of air
Only few studies have attempted to address climate change pollution might not be captured through a single variable, and there­
(Le Blanc, 2015) with a three-pronged SDG (technology, R&D, In­ fore, five air pollution indicators are chosen for building an index. This
novation, and economic growth) integration approach. The primary environmental index might give a clear picture about the air pollution
intention towards such an approach is direct effect of technology driven scenario in these nations. (b) The major policy instrument in this study
progressions on the economic growth, whose subsequent beneficial is technological advancement, which also might not be captured
impacts are evident in the developmental procedures. Hence, technical through a single variable, and therefore, five technological advance­
advancement has indirect effect on the developmental process, and any ment indicators are chosen for building an index. This technological
effort of evaluating this impact is probably far-flanged. Intention of this index might give a clear picture about the technological advancement
study is to design a SDG framework for policy designing. The extant scenario in these nations. Lastly, this study has utilized the Rolling
studies on SDGs in specific primarily include SDG Index and Dash­ Window Heterogeneous Panel Causality Test, which has been designed
boards (Sachs et al., 2017), scorecards (Nicolai et al., 2015), and
country development diagnostics framework (Gable et al., 2015). This
study aims at designing a multipronged policy framework for the Asia 1
Due to unavailability of data, we have restricted ourselves within these
Pacific countries, so that they can attain the SDG objectives by 2030. By indicators of technological progression.

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in keeping with the application of rolling window estimation performance. Fisher-Vanden and Wing (2008) modeled the impact of
(Balcilar et al., 2010) on heterogeneous panel causality test by R&D on economic growth and carbon emissions in the developing
Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012). This approach makes use of the boot­ countries. It has been stated earlier that these studies neglected a
strapping of causality test, and thereby, it enhances the explanatory comprehensive EKC analysis for robust policy design. Further, these
power of the test. Application of this approach is a methodological studies did not incorporate technology, innovation, R&D analysis in
innovation brought forth in the study. their model; so our research tries to fill the void and attempts to analyze
The paper is organized in the following manner: Section 2 explains a robust technological policy through the implementation of the EKC
the current literature on technology, R&D, and Innovation toward en­ framework by developing a comprehensive environmental and tech­
vironmental quality and outlines the research gap for our study. The nological index.
mathematical model followed by theoretical basis is explained in
Section 3. The next section documents the results obtained from the 2.2. Technology, SDGs, and climate change
analysis. The research, practice and policy implications are explained in
Section 5. Section 6 gives the conclusion by highlighting the ways of Studies have been conducted related to the interface of SDGs and
answering the research questions given in the Introduction. climate change; however, the focus has been divergent in terms of
addressing issues and causes of climate change (Ladan, 2018;
2. Literature review Major et al., 2018; Rodriguez et al., 2018). Reckien et al. (2017) ex­
plored the impact of climate change on urban population and how the
We triangulated our research gap by segregating the literature into impact would ultimately affect other SDGs. Haines et al. (2017) high­
two parts. First, we concentrated on studies related to the impact of lighted the measures to mitigate adverse outcomes of pollutants in the
technology, population, innovation, economic progression, research short run. Kelman (2017) explored the relation among disaster risk
and development on ecological features. Second, we focused on studies reduction, climate change, and SDGs, and stressed on the necessity of
related to SDGs and technology in one sub-group and climate change incorporating the strategies associated with climate change alleviation
and SDGs in another sub-group and argued about the contribution of and adversity risk management. Kedir (2017) highlighted the adverse
our paper to the existing literature. impacts of climate change in Africa toward worsening of food security
and emphasized the need to devise mitigation strategies for achieving
2.1. Technology, population, economic progression, and ecology SDG targets in Africa. Chirambo (2016) emphasized on the need to
forge South-South alliances in terms of financial support for mitigating
Numerous works have been conducted on technology and carbon adverse impacts of climate change in Africa, which can have a sub­
emissions (Wolfram and Lutsey, 2016; Zhang et al., 2016a; Gelenbe and stantial impact on human development index. Hiller et al. (2016)
Caseau, 2015; Bond et al., 2004; Shahbaz et al., 2019; Shahbaz and highlighted the importance of addressing issues concerning climate
Sinha, 2019). Most of these studies have neglected two aspects: First, change and development together and further emphasized the need to
the studies did not use the EKC framework for comprehending the include the use and potential of modern effective technologies, devel­
consequences associated at the policy level in the short and long run. opment agendas and climate change in business as well as financial
Second, very few studies have probably incorporated technology, po­ models. Balasubramanian (2018) substantiated the same argument by
pulation, economic growth and environmental policy in one single addressing the need to focus on famine in conjunction with climate
study (Zongzhi, 2010). For instance, Lewis (2016) tried to understand change in low income population groups as a pressing need thereby
the role of legal and policy framework with technology for minimizing positively contributing toward the vital aspects of SDGs. Hence, we
global carbon emissions. de Vries and Ferrarini (2017) scrutinized the observed that very limited focus and importance has been given to
role of technology, supply chain, and energy consumption on emission technology for addressing climate action and the SDGs associated with
levels in both the developed and emerging economies. Li et al. (2019) it.
conducted a study on 30 provinces in China and employed a spatial Studies concerning technology and SDGs have been limited and
model to understand the effect of economic growth and high-tech­ have concentrated towards commonly exclusive subjects. For instance,
nology toward carbon emissions. On similar lines, Yi (2012) studied the Adams et al. (2018) explored the utility of blockchain technology that
crucial role played by environmental regulation and technology in­ could deliver advantageous consequences both ecologically and socially
novation and economic growth toward emission levels in China. for stimulating business models, thus promoting the UN SDGs. Van der
Shabani and Shahnazi (2019) conducted a causality study to under­ Sanden and Foing (2018) attempted to map the collaboration with
stand the effect of energy consumption, information and communica­ space technology for accomplishing sustainability in various facets that
tion technology and gross domestic product on carbon emission levels are advantageous for life on earth through the scrutinization of nu­
in Iran. The studies discussed so far did consider technology as one of merous crucial regions within the 17 SDGs. Imaz and
the predictors of emission levels. However, these studies mostly ne­ Sheinbaum (2017) highlighted the need to extend the current under­
glected innovation and R&D in their econometric model. Very few standing and application of technology, i.e., technology transfer toward
studies have incorporated innovation and R&D as one of the techno­ achieving different SDG's. Dialoke (2017) analyzed the implication of
logical parameters while evaluating their role in emission levels achieving SDGs with the help of technology in the education sector in
(Apergis et al., 2013; Álvarez-Herránz et al., 2017a, 2017b; Nigeria. Hence, we observed that there remains a void in terms of fo­
Churchill et al., 2019). For instance, Lee and Min (2015) analyzed the cusing on the need to address the policy directive toward the use of
role of eco-friendly innovation and R&D towards carbon emissions and technology in achieving different SDGs.
firm performance. Zhang et al. (2016b) highlighted the role of tech­
nological innovation while analyzing the emission levels in China. 2.3. Research gap
Irandoust (2016) investigated the role of energy-growth nexus and
technological innovation in the reduction of carbon emissions in the Summarizing the above two subsections, we attempt to address two
Nordic countries. Ganda (2019) investigated the role of innovation and research gaps in the following sections. First, none of the studies ad­
technological investments on carbon emissions in the chosen countries. dresses the motivation behind integrating different SDGs at the policy
Garrone and Grilli (2010) studied the association between R&D ex­ level. Le Blanc (2015) highlighted the need to integrate SDGs in re­
penditures in the power segment and carbon emissions for 13 advanced search studies, which substantiates the gap addressed in our study.
nations. However, Lee et al. (2015) explored influence of carbon dis­ Second, very few studies have considered the interplay of technology
charges and expenditures on conservational studies related to firm and SDG both at the policy and operational level, thus presenting the

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A. Sinha, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 161 (2020) 120317

Fig. 1. Plot of eigenvalues of the principal component.

opportunity of dealing with the same interaction in this study. Third, ENVit = f (GNIit , GNIit2, TECHit , RENit , POPit ) (1)
there has been no study that specifically analyzes the technological
advancement on environmental quality through the overarching fra­ Here, ENV represents the indicator of air pollution, GNI represents
mework of EKC. While addressing the given research gaps, our paper the gross national income, TECH stands for the indicator of technolo­
attempts to make specific contribution to the literature. First, our paper gical development and R&D, REN stands for consumption in renewable
is amongst those primary studies that attempt and analyze the tech­ energy, POP refers to population, and i refers to the selected countries
nology policy and environmental quality by creating two different in­ (i = 1,…,N), and t stands for the study duration (t = 1,…,T).
dices, which consider an inclusive coverage of both environmental The index represented by ENV constitutes of five main air pollutants
degradation parameters and technological advancement features in a present in the Asia pacific countries, these pollutants are carbon dioxide
single study. Second, our paper presents an opportunity to revisit (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), particulate matter 2.5
technology policy both in the short and long run through the lens of (PM2.5), and greenhouse gases (GHGO), including hydrofluorocarbons,
EKC in the Asia-Pacific region. Future researchers can replicate similar perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride. Likewise, the index re­
studies on other nations keeping in mind the interplay of economic presented by TECH constitutes of five main R&D indicators, which are
growth and cleaner technology in the short as well as long run. We the count of trademark submissions (TM) and patent submissions
presented our mathematical model and theoretical framework in the (PAT), number of researchers in R&D per million people (RES), tech­
next section. nical cooperation grants (GR), and spending associated with R&D,
which is depicted as a percentage of GDP (GOVEX). The indices are
developed with the help of principal component analysis (PCA). The
3. Empirical framework and data primary reason behind the use of these indices is that the focus on
neither local nor global pollutants can depict the appropriate picture of
In this study, our intention is to examine the impact of technological different countries degrading ambient air quality. However, the varying
advancements related to environmental quality for certain Asia Pacific levels of development essentially affect the R&D level of these coun­
countries from 1990 to 2017. For analyzing the effect, we employed the tries; hence, the selection of an indicator for R&D will probably not be
IPAT framework (Ehrlich and Holdren, 1971). The estimation schema is able to illustrate the accurate picture of technological innovation and
designed depending on the available literature on the EKC hypothesis advancement of these nations. Consequently, it is possible to represent
and IPAT modeling (Paramati et al., 2017; Vélez-Henao et al., 2019; these two indices as (We provide the eigenvalues of the indices in
Sinha and Sengupta, 2019). The primary reason for using the IPAT Fig. 1):
framework for this study is the capability of this framework to capture ENVit = 0it + 1it CO 2 it + 2it CH4 it + 3it N2 Oit + 4it PM 2. 5it + 5it GHGOit + it
the evolutionary environmental impact (I) of population (P), economic (2)
affluence (A), and technological advancement (T). The objective of this
study is to design a policy framework by analyzing the impact of TECHit = 0it + 1it PATit + 2it TMit + 3it RESit + 4it GRit + 5it GOVEXit + it

technological progression on environmental quality, in presence of the (3)

evolutionary economic growth pattern of the nations. Now, in the
Before moving on with the analysis, it should be mentioned that
empirical model to be analyzed in this study, economic growth pattern
while operationalizing the empirical model, we have converted the
in the sample countries denotes the economic affluence of those na­
gross GNI data into per capita terms by dividing them with total po­
tions, the environmental impact is captured through the environmental
pulation figure. Moreover, data on R&D outflow has been converted
index, and the technological advancement is captured through the
into gross terms by multiplying the percentage values with the real GDP
technological development index. Thus, the parameterization of IPAT
in US dollar. Hence, all the parameters used in PCA are expressed in
framework has been achieved through the empirical model to be ana­
gross terms. The correlation table for the PCA has been provided in
lyzed in the study. The premise of the IPAT framework falls in the si­
Appendix 1.
milar lines with the research objective, and hence this framework has
Considering the IPAT framework for operationalizing the mathe­
been chosen for the study.
matical model as presented in Eq. (1). Following the description of the
To empirically estimate the evolutionary impact of economic
framework, the relation among echelon of economic activity (A), en­
growth and technological advancement on environmental quality, the
vironmental impact (I), technology (T), and population (P) might be
following empirical model has been designed:
demonstrated as:

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A. Sinha, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 161 (2020) 120317

I=P×A×T (4) model parameters, and regulate likelihood of heteroskedasticity. De­

scriptive statistics of the variables are given in Appendix 3.
The implications of this model depict that pollution, economic ac­
tivity, and technology employed affect the environmental quality.
4. Results
Nevertheless, Dietz and Rosa (1994, 1997) and Rosa and Dietz (1998)
formulated the STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Popu­
The estimation of the results started with checking the stochastic
lation, Affluence, and Technology) model for empirical verification.
property of the data by means of applying unit root tests. However, the
Considering this framework, we designed the model based on Eq. (1),
explanatory power of a unit root test depends on assuming the presence
where ENV refers to ambient air pollution, GNI and utilization of re­
of cross-section amidst the data. The second-generation unit root tests
newable power refer to the indicators of economic accomplishments
assume the presence of cross-section in the data, which has been ig­
and affluence, and TECH represents technological progression, and POP
nored by the first-generation unit root tests. Table 2 presents the out­
refers to population. Following the above argument, the testable em­
come of weak cross-sectional dependence assessment (Chudik and
pirical prototype of Eq. (1) might be depicted as:
Pesaran, 2015), which showed the presence of cross-sectional depen­
ENVit = 0it + 1it GNIit + 2
2it GNIit + 3it TECHit + 4it RENit + 5it POPit + it dence in the data at 1 percent level of significance, thus validating the
(5) application of second-generation unit root tests. Table 3 presents the
outcome obtained from employing Breitung (2001) and Herwartz and
In order to handle the multicolinearity in the data, the variables Siedenburg (2008) unit root tests, which showed that the data turn out
have been orthogonally transformed before carrying out the analysis to be stationary after first difference, thereby, signifying that the model
(see Appendix 2). While conducting the empirical analysis, first we parameters are integrated to unit order.
applied Chudik and Pesaran's (2015) the weak cross-sectional depen­ After confirming the order of integration amongst the model para­
dence test for checking whether the data has cross-sectional depen­ meters, we analyzed the relation of cointegration and cross-sectional
dence. Considering the obtained results from the above test, we utilized dependence among the variables. In this pursuit, we employed the
Breitung (2001) and Herwartz and Siedenburg (2008) unit root tests, panel cointegration test developed by Westerlund and Edgerton (2008).
which undertake the persistence of cross-sectional dependence among Table 4 presents the Lagrange multiplier (LM) statistics, which de­
model parameters. Upon realizing the integration order present in the monstrates that the variables are cointegrated, and this evidence allows
variables, we verified the existence of long run cointegration among the us to proceed with the further estimation process.
variables; however, in this process, the issue of cross-sectional depen­ Upon discovering the cointegrated relation amid the model para­
dence also needed to be addressed. For this reason, we utilized the meters and carrying out pre-test diagnostics (see Appendix 4), we car­
Westerlund and Edgerton (2008) panel cointegration test. ried out the bootstrap quantile regression analysis on the model de­
We can presume that all countries will not have similar level of scribed in Eq. (5). During the analysis, we stipulated three quantile
ambient air pollution; hence, there is need of outlining the con­ series, i.e., 10th–30th quantile represents low air pollution, 40th–60th
sequential developmental strategies with regard to the pattern of quantile represents medium air pollution, and 70th-90th quantile re­
emission. Therefore, the necessity of analyzing the effect of prosperity, presents high air pollution. With the help of this categorization, we
populace, and technological development on air contamination in could segregate the regions with regard to their air pollution patterns.
varied quantiles has aroused, which can be carried out by employing Table 5 demonstrates the outcome of quantile regression analysis,
the quantile regression (Koenker, 2005). For robustness check, we ap­ which exhibits presence of inverted U-shaped EKC across all regions.
plied three mean group tests, i.e., (a) with augmented effect (AMG), (b) However, the disparity among the achieved turnaround points divulges
with common correlated effect (CCE-MG), and (c) cross-sectional ARDL the nature of environmental degradation prevailing in these nations.
(CS-ARDL), for examining the above-mentioned relationship. Finally, to First, we will start with the evolutionary impact of economic growth
focus on new insights for giving policy-level propositions, we employed pattern. For all the three categories, the evolutionary impact of eco­
the rolling window heterogenous panel causality test (Dumitrescu and nomic growth pattern has demonstrated inverted U-shaped form, but
Hurlin, 2012). The test analyzed the relation between ENV and TECH, the nature of turnaround points arising out of these associations differ
and included another robustness assessment on the ecological effects of across the categories. For the low air pollution region, the turnaround
evolutions in technology. points are within the sample range, and near the mean per capita GNI.
We collected data in this study for N2O emissions in cubic tons of Economic growth pattern in these regions is allowing the EKC to reach
carbon correspondent, average yearly coverage of PM2.5 discharges in the turnaround point at a very early stage, and thereby demonstrating
µ-grams per meter3, CH4 discharges in cubic tons of carbon corre­ the policy-level efficacy achieved to have a control over the issue of
spondent, CO2 discharges in cubic tons, and additional greenhouse gas environmental degradation. However, for the medium air pollution
discharges (i.e., HFC, PFC and SF6) in cubic tons of carbon correspon­ region, though the turnaround points are within the sample range, the
dent, technical cooperation grants in real US dollar, GNI in real US turnaround points are close to the maximum per capita GNI of the
dollar, R&D outflow as% of GDP, per capita renewable power utiliza­ sample. It denotes the uncertainty of the policies prevalent in these
tion in billion kilo watt hours, number of trademark solicitations, regions, as further rise in economic growth might make those policies
number of patent solicitations, number of researchers in R&D per mil­ ineffective in controlling the environmental degradation. Lastly, for the
lion individuals, and the total population. The data source for this study high air pollution region, the turnaround points are outside the sample
is the World Bank indicators (World Bank, 2018), and we gathered data range, and thereby demonstrating the inefficacy of the prevalent po­
for 35 Asia-Pacific countries2 for the period 1990–2017. Table 1 records licies in these regions to control the issue of environmental degradation.
the variables and the pertinent studies associated with them. To con­ This evolutionary impact of economic growth pattern suggests that the
duct the analysis, we transformed the model parameters into natural rise in the industrial growth might be a cause of the environmental
logarithms to level the data, estimate elasticity with respect to the degradation in these regions, and rise in environmental degradation
with higher economic growth substantiates this claim. This impact
2 shows the rationale behind the nations failing to attain the objectives of
The chosen countries are Australia, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, China,
East Timor, Fiji, French Polynesia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kiribati, Laos, SDG 13, and this might cause predicament in the way to achieve the
Malaysia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, New objectives of SDG 8.
Caledonia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Russia, This segment of results bears more significance, when they are
Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, analyzed alongside the impact of technological advancement and re­
Tonga, Vanuatu, and Vietnam. newable energy consumption. For all the three categories, the impact of

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A. Sinha, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 161 (2020) 120317

Table 1
Variable description.
Variables Description Source of data Reference study

CO2 CO2 emissions in thousand metric tons World Development Indicator Roberts et al. (2019)
(World Bank, 2018)
CH4 CH4 emissions in thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent World Development Indicator Yusuf et al. (2012)
(World Bank, 2018)
N2O N2O emissions in thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent World Development Indicator Sinha and Sengupta (2019)
(World Bank, 2018)
PM2.5 mean annual exposure of PM2.5 emissions in μg/m3 World Development Indicator Dong et al. (2018)
(World Bank, 2018)
GHGO other greenhouse gas emissions (i.e. HFC, PFC and SF6) in thousand World Development Indicator Mallapragada et al. (2018)
metric tons of CO2 equivalent (World Bank, 2018)
PAT number of patent applications World Development Indicator Lemus and Marshall (2018)
(World Bank, 2018)
TM number of trademark applications World Development Indicator Hidalgo and Gabaly (2012)
(World Bank, 2018)
RES number of researchers in R&D per million people World Development Indicator De Rassenfosse and de la Potterie (2009)
(World Bank, 2018)
GR technical cooperation grants in current USD World Development Indicator Bojnec (2011)
(World Bank, 2018)
GOVEX R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP World Development Indicator Vicente and Lopez (2006)
(World Bank, 2018)
GNI gross national income in current USD World Development Indicator Cranston and Hammond (2012)
(World Bank, 2018)
REN renewable energy consumption in billion kWHs World Development Indicator Sadorsky (2009)
(World Bank, 2018)
POP Population World Development Indicator Dalton et al. (2008)
(World Bank, 2018)

Table 2 on the environmental quality. These countries are characterized by

Results of Chudik and Pesaran (2015) weak cross-sectional dependence test. accelerating economic growth, and therefore, environmental protection
Variables Test statistic p-value
mostly takes a backseat during the designing of policies for these na­
tions. Acemoglu et al. (2012) discussed this issue while analyzing the
ENV 63.374 0.000 impact of endogenous and directed technical change on environmental
TECH 96.470 0.000 quality. Song et al. (2018) provided a detailed review on this issue.
GNI 137.074 0.000
REN 114.782 0.000
However, it is surprising to note that the impact of TECH is low in the
POP 143.558 0.000 countries with low pollution, medium in the countries with medium
pollution, and high in the countries with high pollution. This also di­
vulges that the level of R&D activities in these nations toward the
Table 3 technological development is a major enabler of the issue of environ­
Results of second-generation unit root tests. mental degradation. As the level of industrialization rises, the demand
Variables Herwartz and Siedenburg (2008) Breitung (2001)
for technological innovation also rises, and therefore, deterioration of
Level First Diff. Level First Diff. environmental quality initiates. This segment of the results falls in the
similar lines with the finding of Sinha et al. (2020) for top-10 polluting
ENV 0.1146 −1.6512b 3.3320 −10.7029a MENA (Middle East and North African) countries. When the nations
TECH 0.0507 −1.1123c 2.5022 −19.4171a
GNI −0.6948 −1.4989c 16.5956 −5.6761a
direct the innovations towards industrial development and at the cost of
REN −0.2827 −2.6454a 6.2136 −10.6314a environmental quality, the very purpose of SDG 9 is defeated, as the
POP −0.8768 −1.5489c 24.6111 −4.5944a technological innovations are ascertaining short-run economic benefits
at the cost of long-run sustainability.
a
significant value at 1%. Now, on the other hand, the impact of renewable energy con­
b
significant value at 5%.
c sumption on environmental degradation has been found to be negative
significant value at 10%.
across all the three categories of countries. Though the prominence of
renewable energy solutions is rising in these nations, it has an opti­
Table 4
mistic effect on the environmental quality, which is insufficient to cater
Results of Westerlund and Edgerton (2008) cointegration test.
to the growing energy demand in these nations. Probably for this
Test statistic p-value Test statistic p-value Test statistic p-value reason, the influence of renewable energy consumption on ecological
(1) (2) (3)
feature has not been particularly visible in these nations. Sinha and
LMτ −5.499 0.000 −5.237 0.000 −2.381 0.009 Sengupta (2019) identified this specific issue in the Asia-Pacific Eco­
LMɸ −6.210 0.000 −5.015 0.000 −2.573 0.005 nomic Cooperation (APEC) countries, Sharif et al. (2020a) for Turkey,
Sharif et al. (2020b) for top-10 polluted countries around the world,
Note: and Zafar et al. (2020) for the OECD countries. Amidst rising en­
Model (1): model with a maximum number of 5 factors and no shift. vironmental issues in these nations, the promising role of the renewable
Model (2): model with a maximum number of 5 factors and level shift.
energy consumption is a ray of hope towards not only attaining en­
Model (3): model with a maximum number of 5 factors and regime shift.
vironmental sustainability, but also helping these nations to make a
progression towards achieving SDG 7.
technological advancement has been found to be positive. This segment
Lastly, these nations are characterized by high industrial growth, which
of the findings demonstrates that the level of R&D activities in these
increases the number of vocational opportunities, and therefore, these
nations toward the technological developments is having adverse effect

6
A. Sinha, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 161 (2020) 120317

Table 5
Results of bootstrap quantile regression analysis.
Variables Low air pollution Medium air pollution High air pollution
Q0.1 Q0.2 Q0.3 Q0.4 Q0.5 Q0.6 Q0.7 Q0.8 Q0.9

c c b a a c c
GNI 0.0875 0.1168 0.1245 0.2398 0.1210 0.2965 0.4290 0.2966 0.3596a
GNI2 −0.0049a −0.0064a −0.0069a −0.0100a −0.0052a −0.0123a −0.0167a −0.0110c −0.0132a
TECH 0.0359a 0.0477a 0.0498b 0.0604c 0.0951a 0.1212b 0.1336b 0.1008c 0.1276a
REN −0.0011b −0.0288a −0.0307b −0.0317c −0.0121b −0.0437b −0.0105b −0.0583b −0.0458b
POP 0.2420a 0.3013a 0.3369a 0.3809a 0.5617a 0.4802a 0.5682a 0.5501a 0.4288a
Constant −3.6723a −4.3063a −4.6405a −6.2054a −3.9451a −7.4535a −8.6227a −7.9506b −7.8359a
Shape of EKC Inverted U Inverted U Inverted U Inverted U Inverted U Inverted U Inverted U Inverted U Inverted U
Turnaround Point $7544.48 $9181.99 $8281.17 $161135.35 $112940.38 $171586.96 $378628.72 $716274.09 $823412.13

Note: regressions have been run with 200 bootstrap replications and 95% confidence level.
a
significant value at 1%.
b
significant value at 5%.
c
significant value at 10%.

Fig. 2. Quantile regression plot at 95% confidence level.

nations are also experiencing a rise in population. Furthermore, the existing results, which show that EKC exists for the Asia-pacific countries.
urban infrastructure in these nations are not yet capable of handling the However, the direct impact of renewable energy consumption on eco­
issue of rising population; hence, these nations are striving with major in­ logical feature has been offset by the negative effect of technological
cidents of energy poverty issues. In such a situation, the inadequate urban progression. In this case, it is noteworthy to observe that the turn­
infrastructure not only aggravates the issues of energy efficiency, but also around points for the aggregate data are outside the sample range, thus
results in space heating, which in turn causes greenhouse gas emissions. indicating the need of sustainable policy level design.
Sinha and Bhattacharya (2016a, 2017) identified this issue in the case of Finally, we carried out the rolling window heterogeneous panel caus­
Indian cities. This segment of the results indicates that the rising population ality test. For any national level policy towards sustainable development,
pressure in the urban center of these countries might restrict them from one of the intrinsic characteristics is bidirectionality (Lu et al., 2014;
achieving the objectives of SDG 8. In Fig. 2, the coefficients of the quantile Sinha et al., 2018). Fig. 3 depicts the results, which shows progression in
regression analysis are plotted. technology has a positive effect on ambient air pollution; however, there is
To bring forth more robustness in the analysis, we carried out AMG, minimal effect when the direction of the causal relationship changes.
CCE-MG, and CS-ARDL tests on the aggregate data. Table 6 presents the However, the result obtained demonstrates that the prevalent research and

7
A. Sinha, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 161 (2020) 120317

Table 6 educational development policies for safeguarding the developmental fu­

Results of long run estimates. ture of these nations.
Variables CS-ARDL AMG CCE-MG Nevertheless, it is necessary to remembered that, if these nations start
implementing thorough renewable energy implementation, then the eco­
nomic growth will be worse hit, as it will make the existing energy infra­
b b
GNI 1.5770 1.2029 1.5769b
GNI2 −0.0613a −0.0449c −0.0611b
structure completely redundant, and the cost of implementation might push
TECH 0.7627b 0.2712a 0.7625a
REN −0.1731c −0.1182c −0.1731b
these nations toward the balance of payment crisis. Therefore, based on the
POP 0.7355a 0.3108c 0.7354a endogenous research and development capabilities, these nations need to
Constant −2.7159c −5.9775a −5.0098b take small steps toward ensuring environmental sustainability. These steps
Shape of EKC Inverted U Inverted U Inverted U will be different for nations with low, medium, and high air pollution levels,
Turnaround Point $385759.35 $656923.56 $402019.28
respectively. Let us begin with the first strata, i.e., nations with low air
a
significant value at 1%. pollution levels. The policymakers of such nations have to allocate more
b
significant value at 5%. resources on R&D for creating green solutions to replace the existing pro­
c
significant value at 10%. duction technologies. This initiative should be complemented by enhancing
environmental responsiveness midst the populace through modifications in
development activities are industrialization driven, but these R&D activities the educational curriculum, and this enhancement in environmental
do not consider their negative effects. Saying this, it is both surprising and awareness might help the policymakers in encouraging people-public-pri­
alarming to find no causal impact of environmental degradation on tech­ vate partnerships to encounter environmental degradation. In this way,
nological advancement, as the policy-level inefficacies to control the en­ citizens will be more aware about the energy efficiency related issues, and
vironmental degradation might have not been realized yet on the R&D this can shift their preference from fossil fuel to renewable energy solutions.
front. As the technology-driven economic growth pattern in these nations is In this situation, the demand of fossil fuel-based energy sources will be
driving the environmental degradation, therefore, the impact of environ­ lessened, which in turn will upsurge the renewable energy requirement,
mental degradation might be visible on the economic growth pattern, and while compelling the government to take budgetary allocation decisions
after certain policy lag, on the technological advancements. Absence of this following a pro-ecological philosophy, rather than the pro-industrialization
impact divulges the policy-level myopia in controlling environmental de­ philosophy. Following this path, these countries might be competent to
gradation by technological advancements. Hence, policymakers can con­ realize the requirements of SDG 7 and SDG 4, thereby, compliance of such
sider the absence of bidirectionality between these two aspects to be their requirements will encourage the attainment of SDG 13. In this way, the shift
primary concern. from fossil fuel-based energy sources and environmentally harmful tech­
nologies might be replaced smoothly without damaging the economic
5. Policy implications and discussion growth pattern. Next, we will consider the second strata, i.e., nations with
moderate air pollution levels. For these countries, while allocating bud­
We analyzed the impact of technological advancement, consumption in getary resources for R&D in green production technologies, the policy­
renewable energy, population and gross national income on air pollution for makers have to impose higher tax rate for the polluting industries, although
the Asia-Pacific countries, and further encountered several insights in the incentivizing the cleaner industries. This will both force and motivate the
course of empirical analysis. Technological progression positively affects industries for implementing green energy solutions for production purpose,
ambient air pollution index, whereas, the renewable energy consumption which will in turn increase the demand for renewable energy solutions. This
negatively affects the same. These countries have high economic growth derived demand-pull strategy needs to be complemented through the
and their existing policies are largely pro-industrialization. Therefore, it can modification of educational curriculum by stressing on the environmental
be assumed that the R&D activities carried out in these nations largely aim awareness, so that citizens become aware of the environmental protection
at technological progression and less toward environmental protection. It is and advantages of green and renewable energy. This will also enable
probable that the prevailing course of economic growth in these nations is countries to carry out innovations in technology for encountering en­
not environment-friendly, and so the persistence of this economic growth vironmental degradation at the grassroot level, which will not only ag­
pattern might be harmful for sustainable development of these nations. For gravate the national capacity to innovate but will also lead toward creation
these reasons, the policymakers should focus on redesigning the energy and of green jobs. This will help these countries to reach a position so as to meet

Fig. 3. Results of rolling window heterogenous panel causality tests.

8
A. Sinha, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 161 (2020) 120317

the requirements of SDG 8 and SDG 9, in consort with realization of the help in elevating the living standard, which in turn will reduce the social
goals of SDG 7, SDG 4, and SDG 13. imbalance occurring due to income inequality. Along these lines, climate
Lastly, we consider the last strata, i.e., nations with high air pollution change might be mitigated through decline in ecological deprivation
levels. Along with air pollution, these countries also have high population (achievement of SDG 13), the alteration of educational curriculum can in­
pressure, low energy efficiency, and social imbalance. Therefore, the policy crease consciousness about the ecology (achievement of SDG 4), R&D ac­
level interventions in these countries need to be inclusive, keeping the tivities can foster innovation and create new vocational opportunities
economic growth pattern unharmed. For these nations, the new energy (achievement of SDG 8 and 9), citizens will be able to afford clean energy at
policies should focus on both the industrial and domestic consumers. reasonable prices (SDG 7). Further, the enhancement of living standard can
Industries can avail the renewable energy and cleaner technology solutions reduce societal disparity and inequality in earnings (achievement of SDG
at a predetermined rate of interest, which will be payable to the govern­ 10) (see Appendix 5).
ment. Moreover, the domestic consumers can avail the renewable solutions
against low-cost loans from the government, and for decreasing the burden
6. Conclusion
of expenses, the households can be given an interest holiday. During this
period, the fiscal pressure can be managed by the interest received from the
Today, the achievement of sustainable development has become one of
industrial consumers, which in turn will give the households enough time
the major critical issues, and to institutionalize this global issue, SDGs came
and capacity to repay the price of the renewable energy solutions for do­
into existence. Countries with pro-industrialization agenda are finding it
mestic usage. Now, this solution needs to be considered for the rising po­
difficult to address the objectives, as the policies and practices prevailing in
pulation pressure, and therefore, the interest holiday and pro-rata price for
those countries are more growth-oriented. Therefore, the policies in those
the households might be decided depending on the household income, as it
countries need to be redesigned for fulfilling the objectives of the SDGs,
will bring parity in terms of providing the solutions. Such policy interven­
which is the focus of this study. The empirical results of this study in­
tions might provide the government with several benefits: (a) it will help
vestigate the effect of technological progression on environmental de­
the policymakers to go for gradual transferal from fossil fuel to renewable
gradation, following the EKC framework, which includes consumption in
energy sources, (b) there will be sufficient time to allocate budgetary re­
renewable energy, population and gross national income. The next step was
sources for R&D activities toward unearthing alternate energy sources and
to analyze the relationship among the said variable for different country
building cleaner technological solutions, and (c) the environmental
segments as explained in the methodology section through the bootstrap
awareness among the citizens will start rising. Further, it should be re­
quantile regression analysis. This was followed by robustness checks
membered that these policy interventions need to be complemented by
through CS-ARDL, CCE-MG, and AMG analysis. To obtain further insights
increasing environmental awareness, which can be done through revision of
between environmental degradation and technological progression, we
the educational curriculum in schools and upgradation of the urban infra­
applied the rolling window heterogenous panel causality test. Based on the
structure. Upon considering these policy interventions together, these na­
results of the analysis, the policies for addressing some of the SDGs objec­
tions might experience the emergence of green jobs, better living conditions,
tives have been suggested.
higher educational attainment along with lower level of environmental
For the Asia-Pacific countries, this study for the first time address
degradation, affordable and clean energy, and sustainable growth in in­
the issue of implementation of SDGs, while considering progression in
come. Once, these things are in place, the social imbalance is likely to come
technology as vehicle for sustainable development. With regard to
down, as vocational opportunities will rise, along with affordable energy,
ambient air pollution, the index has given us a wide scope for analyzing
better education, and robust urban infrastructure, and consequently, the
the environmental degradation issue, as choosing a single pollutant
inequality in income can be reduced because the average level of income
could not have solved the purpose by narrowing the purpose of policy-
and living standard of the marginalized population will rise. Sinha and
oriented study. Similarly, choosing only one single parameter for R&D
Bhattacharya (2016a, b) also suggested that addressing the energy effi­
activities related to the technological progression would have trimmed
ciency issues might have positive social spillover effect. All of these might
the scope of the study. Therefore, in methodological terms, the in­
be possible by enhancing the R&D capacity of these nations and capitalizing
troduction of these two indices is a contribution to the literature on
the enhanced capacity to encounter environmental degradation, develop
environmental economics. Moreover, the usage of quantile regression
cleaner technologies, and create new green vocational opportunities. Thus,
in designating the country segmented air pollution has given us the
these countries should be in a position for ascertaining the requirements of
flexibility of suggesting the policies in accordance with the context
SDG 8, SDG 9, SDG 7, SDG 4, and SDG 13. Furthermore, we have already
setting. Now, on policymaking front, the present work contributed to
discussed that the accomplishment of these objectives might habitually re­
the extant literature of environmental economics by providing in­
sult in accomplishment of SDG 10 to some extent.
dicative ways of addressing the objectives of selected SDGs, and the
In a nutshell, these nations need to augment their capacity of con­
ways in which the complementarity of research capabilities and the
ducting the R&D activities for reducing environmental degradation, devel­
national policies can be used as a vehicle for achieving these objectives.
oping cleaner production technologies, and creating new vocational op­
Lastly, we would like to mention that data support is crucial to come up
portunities. The policymakers need to invest more on R&D activities for
with sound policy level decisions, and many researchers have identified this
capacity building, and they also need to promote the renewable energy
issue. During analysis, one of the major problems, we have encountered is
solutions by increasing awareness about environmental protection and en­
the unavailability of data. Because of this specific issue, we could not
ergy efficiency through the revision of educational curriculum. While car­
consider several other Asia-Pacific countries for the analysis. Therefore, the
rying this transformation, they will also have to consider about not harming
unavailability of data is a limitation for this study, and further it acts as a
the economic growth pattern; hence, both the industrial and domestic
limitation for these countries to achieve the objectives of SDGs.
consumers of electricity must be considered. In this consideration, the in­
come level of the domestic consumers also needs to be taken care of. The
differential interest rate mechanism for the different levels of consumers CRediT authorship contribution statement
needs to be implemented, which will enable smooth transition from fossil
fuel to renewable energy sources as well as in maintaining parity in the Avik Sinha: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis,
policy-level impact. The increase in environmental awareness is expected to Resources, Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing - original draft.
bring forth people-public-partnerships, which can be a channel for creating Tuhin Sengupta: Conceptualization, Writing - original draft. Tanaya
new green jobs. It is expected that the new vocational opportunities will Saha: Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing.

9
A. Sinha, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 161 (2020) 120317

Supplementary materials

Supplementary material associated with this article can be found, in the online version, at doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120317.

Appendix 1
Correlation matrix of the model parameters for PCA.
Correlation matrix for the parameters of ENVINDEX
CO2 GHGO CH4 N2O PM2.5

CO2 1.0000
GHGO 0.6040 1.0000
CH4 0.9155 0.3525 1.0000
N2O 0.8916 0.3596 0.9770 1.0000
PM2.5 0.5633 0.9278 0.4822 0.6698 1.0000
Correlation matrix for the parameters of TECHINDEX
GOVEX PAT TM RES GR
GOVEX 1.0000
PAT 0.9565 1.0000
TM 0.8492 0.8139 1.0000
RES 0.9196 0.7834 0.6521 1.0000
GR 0.8308 0.5445 0.4813 0.9287 1.0000

Appendix 2
Multicolinearity statistics.
Variables Before transformation After transformation
VIF Tolerance VIF Tolerance

ENV 2.30 0.4356 1.00 1.0000

TECH 10.15 0.0986 1.00 1.0000
GNI 12.24 0.0817 1.00 1.0000
GNI2 9.30 0.1076 1.00 1.0000
REN 1.79 0.5598 1.00 1.0000
POP 10.41 0.0961 1.00 1.0000

Appendix 3
Summary statistics of variables.
Variables Number of observations Mean Standard deviation

CO2 980 3395.80 4374.47

CH4 980 1379.83 1538.56
N2O 980 689.01 1163.74
PM2.5 896 17.95 40.85
GHGO 896 1602.83 4240.61
PAT 980 11.14 68.15
TM 924 97.92 248.09
RES 896 781.84 1574.79
GR 896 91.70 255.62
GOVEX 868 0.46 0.82
GNI 980 10421.42 26055.87
REN 980 34.30 29.07
POP 980 103723368.23 276886235.97

Note: All the variables are considered in raw form.

Appendix 4
Diagnostic statistics of the empirical model.
Diagnostic tests Test statistics

Heteroskedasticity (Breusch and Pagan, 1979) 1.65

(0.1986)
Normality (Jarque and Bera, 1987) 1.28
(0.7361)
Serial Correlation (Wooldridge, 2002) 1.12
(0.3815)
Omitted Variable Bias (Ramsey, 1969) 0.61
(0.1654)

Note: p-values are within parentheses.

10
A. Sinha, et al. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 161 (2020) 120317

Appendix 5. Phase-wise SDG implementation.

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economic and energy data to generate business-as-usual scenarios for carbon emis­ Avik Sinha is an Assistant Professor in the area of General Management & Economics and
sions. J. Clean. Prod. 207, 980–997. also affiliated with Centre of Excellence in Sustainable Development at Goa Institute of
Rodriguez, R.S., Ürge-Vorsatz, D., Barau, A.S., 2018. Sustainable development goals and Management. He is a Fellow in Economics from Indian Institute of Management Indore.
climate change adaptation in cities. Nat. Clim. Change 8 (3), 181. He has published several papers in Journal of Cleaner Production, Environmental Science
Rosa, E.A., Dietz, T., 1998. Climate change and society: speculation, construction and and Pollution Research, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Ecological Indicators, etc.
scientific investigation. Int. Sociol. 13 (4), 421–455. His current research interests include Energy Economics, Environmental Economics, and
Sachs, J.D., Schmidt‐Traub, G., Duran‐Delacre, D., Teksoz, K., 2017. SDG Index & Sustainable Development.
Dashboards Report 2017. New York. Available at: http://www.sdgindex.org.
Sadorsky, P., 2009. Renewable energy consumption and income in emerging economies.

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Tuhin Sengupta is an Assistant Professor in the area of Information Technology and Market Case Studies, and European Case Clearing House. His-current research interests
Operations Management at Goa Institute of Management. He is also affiliated with Centre include sustainable supply chain and retail supply chains in unorganized markets.
of Excellence in Sustainable Development at Goa Institute of Management. He is a Fellow
in Operations Management & Quantitative Techniques at Indian Institute of Management Tanaya Saha has done M.Phil. in Comparative Literature from the Jadavpur University,
Indore. He has worked in Larsen & Toubro Ltd. as a senior planning engineer. He has M.A. in English from the English and Foreign Language University Lucknow, and B.A. in
published research papers in international journals such as Technological Forecasting and English from Scottish Church College Kolkata. She has been featured in the prestigious
Social Change, Journal of Cleaner Production, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Advantage Woman Programme of ICICI Bank. She has a rich experience of working with
Operations Management Education Review, Journal of Global Operations and Strategic SAGE Publications. Her research interest is sustainable development.
Sourcing, etc. He has also published teaching cases in Ivey Publishing, Emerald Emerging

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