Ecological Modelling: A A A B
Ecological Modelling: A A A B
Ecological Modelling: A A A B
Ecological Modelling
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolmodel
A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Common Carp (Cyprinus carpio) feeding and spawning behaviours, when abundant, negatively impact shallow
Carp exclusion water habitats essential for marsh ecosystem functioning. A common coastal marsh restoration practice is to
Cyprinus carpio create barriers to carp movement into a marsh from connected lakes. These barriers often do not exclude all carp
Delta Marsh from a marsh, and the lower adult density and improved habitat may increase overall carp recruitment success.
Coastal marsh restoration
A population model was created for Delta Marsh on Lake Manitoba, Canada. Varying the proportion of the total
Matrix population modelling
Wetland conservation
carp population spawning in the marsh indicates that, with partial carp exclusion, the improvement in spawning
conditions increases carp population growth rate and decreases generation time. Increasing fishing mortality can
help mitigate this effect, indicating that a multi-tiered management approach is best. It is important that fish
exclusion programs be implemented with awareness of this unanticipated result.
⁎
Corresponding author at: 501 University Crescent, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T-2N6, Canada.
E-mail addresses: [email protected] (A. Caskenette), [email protected] (E.C. Enders), [email protected] (D. Watkinson),
[email protected] (D. Wrubleski).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.07.005
Received 1 December 2017; Received in revised form 14 May 2018; Accepted 7 July 2018
Available online 24 July 2018
0304-3800/ Crown Copyright © 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/).
A. Caskenette et al. Ecological Modelling 385 (2018) 58–64
recruitment occurred in the marsh in most years. Since the Carp Ex-
clusion Project started, Delta Marsh has seen an increase in submersed
vegetation and decreases in adult carp abundance.
Reductions in the numbers of large adult carp have been shown to
increase water clarity, reduce nutrient levels and blue-green algal
blooms, contribute to changes in the benthic and zooplankton com-
munities, and increase the abundance of submersed aquatic macro-
phytes (Bonneau and Scarnecchia, 2014; Kaemingk et al., 2017). These
habitat changes can in turn result in increased recruitment of carp. Carp
spawn in shallow waters with abundant aquatic vegetation
(McCrimmon, 1968), and an increase in submersed macrophytes would
increase potential spawning habitat. These plants also provide habitat
for the early larvae, which attach themselves to the surface of the plants
soon after hatch (McCrimmon, 1968). Increased macrophytes means a
change in the zooplankton community and potential increase in larger-
sized zooplankton (Lougheed and Chow-Fraser, 2001), which are an
important food resource for larval carp (Lechelt and Bajer, 2016).
Clearer water and reduced turbidity may also contribute to increased
feeding efficiency by larval carp (Lechelt and Bajer, 2016).
Hence, with the resulting increase in the quantity the spawning and
quality of larval habitat for carp in Delta Marsh, along with a decrease
in adult carp abundance in the marsh, the likelihood of survival for carp
eggs spawned in the marsh may have improved since the Carp
Exclusion Project began. Monitoring of the fish community indicates
decreases in the abundance of large carp in the marsh but there is now
evidence of change in the abundance of young-of-the-year (YOY) carp.
Historically YOY carp, while caught in the marsh, have not been the
most abundant small fish species. The relative frequency of occurrence
ranged from third most common to rare, depending on the study and
water level (as reviewed by Parks (2006)). In 2016, however, small fish
sampling indicated that YOY carp were the most abundant fish species
caught, comprising over 57.5% of the total catch (St George, 2017).
The objective of this article is to determine how partial exclusion of Fig. 1. a) Diagram and b) matrix representing the elements of the stage-struc-
carp from a coastal marsh during spawning will affect carp population ture matrix population model for Common Carp (Cyprinus carpio) in Delta
level metrics if decreasing the numbers of adult carp in the marsh im- Marsh and Lake Manitoba. The model consists of four stages: a young-of-the-
proves carp spawning conditions. To achieve this goal, a matrix popu- year (YOY) stage, juvenile (J) stage, an adult stage that migrates into the marsh
to spawn (AMARSH), and an adult stage that remains in the lake year round
lation model was created and the resulting population level metrics
(ALAKE). Transition elements include the fecundity coefficient (F), the stage-
were compared across a range of carp exclusion efficiencies (hereafter
specific annual probability of remaining in stage i and probability of adults
referred to as ‘screen efficiency’), carp harvest rates, and the suitability returning to the marsh or the lake (Pi), and the transition probability of sur-
of spawning habitat outside of the protected marsh. We show that with viving stage i and moving to the next and probability of adults moving between
improved spawning conditions in the marsh, partial exclusion of carp the marsh and the lake (Gi).
will increase population growth rate and decrease generation time (i.e.,
how long it takes a population to grow by the anticipated quantity of
offspring produced over an individual’s lifetime (Caswell, 2001)). fi = H ηi φ 1 T (2)
2. Materials and methods The probability of moving from i to i+1 (Gj) is defined as σi(γi) and
the probability of surviving and remaining in stage i (Pi) is defined as
2.1. Model σi(1-γi). For the YOY, γi was set to one as no individuals remained in
that stage for more than one year. For the juvenile and adult stages,
The carp life cycle at Delta Marsh and Lake Manitoba is represented assuming that the age distribution within stages is stable (Lefkovitch,
by a post-breeding stage-structured projection matrix (Caswell, 2001). 1965), the term γi can be calculated as:
The stage-structured matrix includes the fecundity coefficient (Fi), the D D−1
stage-specific annual probability of remaining in stage i (Pi) and the
γ =
( ) −( )
σi
λ
σi
λ
transition probability of surviving stage i and moving to the next (Gi) j D
(Fig. 1). ( ) −1 σi
λ (3)
Fecundity coefficients (Fi) represent the contribution of an adult to
next year’s YOY individuals. Since a post-breeding model is assumed, where λ is the largest eigenvalue of the matrix (Caswell, 2001) and is
the coefficient Fi includes the annual survival probability (σi), the stage- set to 1 to represent a population at equilibrium, and D is the duration
specific annual number of female offspring per individual (fi), and the of the stage (years). For juveniles, D represents the duration between
probability of remaining in the stage (Pi) such that: YOY and age at maturation. For adults, D represents the duration be-
tween age at maturation and the maximum age of the population (tmax).
Fi = σifi Pi (1) In addition, the relative proportion of juveniles split between adult
where fi is the product of the effect of the exclusion screens on survival stages (marsh or lake) and the relative proportion of the adults in the
of eggs to the YOY stage (H), the average fertility (egg count) for a marsh or in the lake depends on the efficiency of the screens (SE) to
female of stage i (ηi), the proportion of females in the population (φ), prevent adult carp from entering the marsh.
and the inverse of the average spawning periodicity per year (T):
59
A. Caskenette et al. Ecological Modelling 385 (2018) 58–64
Fig. 2. Map of Delta Marsh (highlighted on the insert with a white box), Canada; an 18,500 ha coastal wetland on the south shore of Lake Manitoba (50° 11′ N, 98°
19′ W) where screens (triangles) at all connections between the lake and the marsh control movement of Common Carp (Cyprinus carpio) between the marsh and the
lake.
2.3.2. Fecundity
In the absence of fecundity data for carp in Delta Marsh, values for Fig. 3. a) Length-at-age data (points) for Common Carp (Cyprinus carpio) caught
in Delta Marsh, Canada in 2009 (Weber et al., 2015). Also included is the best
parameters ϑ and β (10−9.615 and 5.325, respectively) for the re-
fit of the growth curve (solid black line) and 95% confidence intervals (dashed
lationship between the number of eggs (E) in relation to FL (mm):
lines). b) The estimate of Common Carp survival for each age (black line) and
E = ϑ FLβ (5) the point estimates (points) used in the model.
were adopted from Weber and Brown (2012) based on the lengths of 40
in the model was set to 5 years to be conservative.
carp from two lakes in eastern South Dakota, USA. Carp spawn yearly;
The effect of the exclusions screens on the survival of eggs to the
consequently, the spawning periodicity (T) was set to one. The popu-
YOY stage (H) is unknown for Delta Marsh. Badiou (2005) estimated
lation was assumed to be 36% female (Swee and McCrimmon, 1966).
that for Delta Marsh, every additional 100 kg/ha of carp in the marsh
The age at maturity for female carp in Delta Marsh is unknown, in si-
would result in a 2.9 g/m2 reduction in submerged vegetation biomass,
milar systems female carp mature anywhere from age 3 or 5 (Swee and
which relates directly to the amount of ideal larval carp habitat.
McCrimmon, 1966; Bajer and Sorensen, 2010); age at maturity for carp
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A. Caskenette et al. Ecological Modelling 385 (2018) 58–64
Fig. 4. Population growth rate (λ) for Common Carp (Cyprinus carpio) in Delta Marsh, Canada under a range of fishing mortalities (FM = 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7,
respectively), lake fecundity coefficients (HL), and screen efficiencies (SE) calculated using a simple stage-structure matrix population model. The contour lines
represent λ isoclines.
Similarly, Bajer et al. (2009) found that an increase in carp biomass was K:
strongly correlated with the decline in percent vegetative cover in two −1.5
shallow lakes in Illinois, USA. These studies suggest that higher screen FL ⎞
M= ⎛ ⎜ ⎟ K
efficiency will result in an increase in carp spawning and larval habitat L
⎝ ∞⎠ (7)
in the marsh. In addition, with increased screen efficiency, the density
This equation is a simplified version of an equation created by Gislason
of carp in the marsh would decrease, alleviating density-dependent
et al. (2008) that was based on empirical estimates of natural mortality
effects on egg and larval survival. Accordingly, it was assumed that
for several species of fish, and has been used previously to represent
realised fecundity scales directly to screen efficiency (SE) (as a proxy for
carp natural mortality (Lechelt and Bajer, 2016). For each stage,
the number of carp in the marsh) with realised fecundity decreasing
average length (i.e., length at 0.5 years for YOY, and length of the
proportionally with decreasing efficiency:
midpoint age for the juveniles and adults) was used for the respective
HM = c * SE (6) mortality estimate (Fig. 3b). An accumulation of carp on the Lake
Manitoba side of the screens trying to enter into Delta Marsh provides
where HM is unit-less and represents the marsh fecundity coefficient,
the opportunity for an effective commercial carp harvest. Four levels of
i.e., the effect of screen efficiency on survival of eggs to the YOY stage
fishing mortality (FM) rates (i.e., low (FM = 0.1), medium (FM = 0.3),
in the marsh and c is a scaling factor for HM. For the purpose of this
high (FM = 0.5), and very high (FM = 0.7)) were compared to de-
analysis, c was set to 0.1 to obtain a reasonable population growth rate
termine the influence of carp harvest on the results. Total mortality (Zi
(λ) between 0.7 and 1.2. Changing the value for c does not affect the
= M + FM) was then converted to survival (σ):
qualitative interpretation of the results. For the purpose of this model,
we assume a linear relationship; however, the shape of the relationship σi = e−Zi (8)
between SE and HM is unknown and should be determined empirically,
along with the value for c, if precise values for λ are desired. Since YOY survival could depend on availability of submerged ve-
While Delta Marsh is the largest spawning habitat for carp on Lake getation (Lubinski et al., 1986), the YOY stage may be more appro-
Manitoba, there are tributaries and other coastal wetlands (Watchorn priately represented with different survival rates for the marsh and for
et al., 2012) that provide spawning habitat. The effect of the spawning Lake Manitoba, which may differ in extent, density, etc. of vegetative
habitat on survival of eggs to the YOY stage outside of the protected cover. However, the relationship between YOY survival and submerged
marsh (lake fecundity coefficient, HL) was varied from 0.01 to 0.1 in the vegetative cover is unknown, directionally consistent with the effect on
model, paralleling HM, to determine the influence on the results. reproductive success, and so would most likely be captured in HM and
HL .
2.3.3. Survival
Stage specific survival rates (σi) are unknown for carp. An equation 2.4. Model analysis
developed by Charnov et al. (2013) (Fig. 3b) was adopted to estimate
natural mortality (M) based on von Bertalanffy parameters FL, L∞, and The population modelling and analyses were performed in R (R Core
61
A. Caskenette et al. Ecological Modelling 385 (2018) 58–64
Team, 2015). Estimated population level parameters include carp po- but less drastic changes in population growth rate and generation time
pulation growth rate (λ) and generation time (GT, years), that were over increasing screen efficiencies (not shown). Increasing fishing in-
calculated from the population matrix with the package “popbio” tensity has a larger mediating effect on population growth rate as all
(Stubben and Milligan, 2007) according to Caswell (2001). For λ > 1 adults are susceptible to harvest (not shown).
there is an increase in population growth, for λ = 1 the population is
stable, and for λ < 1 the population is declining in abundance. 4. Discussion
Fig. 5. Generation time (GT in years) for Common Carp (Cyprinus carpio) in Delta Marsh, Canada under a range of fishing mortalities (FM = 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7,
respectively), lake fecundity coefficients (HL), and screen efficiencies (SE) calculated using a simple stage-structured matrix population model. The contour lines
represent GT isoclines.
62
A. Caskenette et al. Ecological Modelling 385 (2018) 58–64
spawning success on population growth rate from varying the propor- implemented at once. What effect increased carp population growth
tion of the population not susceptible to these control measures. and decreased generation time will have on Lake Manitoba and its
The interpretation of our model results are limited by assumptions coastal wetlands and tributaries is not known, but should be monitored
regarding foundational relationships in the matrix population model. in the future.
There are three main elements of a matrix population model: survival,
growth, and reproduction. In regards to survival, we assumed that Conflict of interest
survival was related to the length of the individual, and that average
lengths for each stage were representative. While other methods of None.
calculating survival exist in the literature, we chose the length-based
method because it has previously been applied to carp (Lechelt and Acknowledgements
Bajer, 2016) and is empirically supported (Gislason et al., 2008). In
addition, we also assumed for simplicity that the survival of the YOY We thank Fisheries and Oceans Canada and the Institute of Wetland
that spend their summer in the marsh would be the same as YOY that and Waterfowl Research of Ducks Unlimited Canada for their support of
are in the lake for the full year. YOY carp, however, prefer habitats with this work. Some of the data used was generated by the Restoring the
dense submerged vegetation (Lubinski et al., 1986), which we assume Tradition at Delta Marsh project. This project was funded by Ducks
would increase in the marsh with higher screen efficiencies. The effect Unlimited Canada, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service through the North
of partial carp exclusion on YOY survival should, however, be direc- American Wetlands Conservation Act, Manitoba Sustainable
tionally consistent with the effect on recruitment; with minimal effects Development, as well as grants and funds from numerous individuals
on the qualitative interpretation of the results. and foundations. We also would like to thank Bob Emery for his as-
Growth was represented in the matrix population model as the sistance and proof reading, Susan Witherly for drafting the map, and
transition between stages and did not vary across screen efficiencies in two anonymous reviewers for greatly improving this manuscript.
the model. Factors that affect growth include population density and
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