Gartner for Supply Chain

Ignition Guide:
Scenario
Planning for
Supply Chain

© 2020 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. CM_GBS_987677
Overview

Supply chain leaders can use this step-by-step This Ignition Guide is tailor-made for short-cycle
Gartner Ignition Guide to: projects that take a few weeks to a month to
• Identify and prioritize critical driving forces execute and may not require extensive planning
to get started or monitoring after launch. Before
• Create and effectively communicate scenarios you start:
• Use scenarios to continuously revise supply • Establish the timing, roles and responsibilities
chain strategies for the scenario planning process.
• Determine the scope the scenario plan will
cover, such as the end-to-end supply chain
or a specific route to market, channel,
geography, or business unit or functions
within the supply chain.

2  Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for Supply Chain

Step A:
Set Objectives
and Build Scenario
Planning Teams
Step A

Set Objectives and Build

Scenario Planning Teams
Task A1 Task A2
Define the objective of the Establish the scenario
scenario planning exercise planning team
Advice
Identify the strategic decisions that require Bring together a working team of relevant
from peers
pressure-testing or strategic questions that stakeholders, including leaders from the
require answers. Specify the time horizon and supply chain organization, business units “Don’t conduct a scenario planning
geographic boundary the strategic decision and other leaders across the enterprise, exercise before identifying a strategic
needs to address. to ensure scenarios capture all relevant decision you want to inform. Vague,
perspectives. unscoped questions (for example, what
is the future of artificial intelligence?)
are not good candidates for a scenario
planning exercise.”

Technology Company

4  Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for Supply Chain

Step A
Gather Multiple Perspectives
to Build Scenarios

Head of Supply CSCO

Chain Strategy “To ensure we align to business priorities
“The central team found emerging trends we will have to …”
in …”

Supply Chain Cross-Functional

Functional Leaders Leaders (Finance, IT)
“Our suppliers, customers or employees “To mitigate the impact of cross-
are seeing ...” functional dependency we will have to …”
Scenarios

Corporate Strategy HR Partner

“Our company’s competitive advantage “Based on the department trends,
will be based on …” the impact on workload would be …”

Source: Gartner

5  Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for Supply Chain

Step B:
Identify Driving
Forces and Critical
Uncertainties
Step B

Identify Driving Forces

and Critical Uncertainties
Task B1 Task B2
Determine and prioritize the Determine the likely truths
key driving forces and uncertainties of the key
Identify internal and external forces that driving forces
influence the scenario planning objectives Analyze key trends and potential states for each
and shortlist the critical driving forces driving force to determine the likely truths and
based on their degree of influence and critical uncertainties. Then, engage with internal
vulnerability. stakeholders and external strategic customers
and suppliers to revise the likely truths and
uncertainties based on their feedback.

7  Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for Supply Chain

Step B
Analyzing Driving Forces

List the critical Enter the likely truths List the critical Enter extreme range of
driving forces and the corresponding uncertainties about possible outcomes of
identified sources of information the driving force the uncertainty

Driving Force Likely Truths Critical Uncertainties

Likely Truth Fact Base Source Uncertainties Range of Future Directions

Example: Customer product Example: Diversity of customer Example: Customer and provider Example: Service level, cost and Example: High to low
and service expectations requirements to an explosion or feedback/data lead time expectations for different
long tail of SKUs products

8  Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for Supply Chain

Step C:
Develop Scenarios
and Corresponding
Signposts
Step C

Develop Scenarios and

Corresponding Signposts
Task C1 Task C2
Develop the potential scenarios Create signposts or triggers
based on the information to determine which scenarios Gartner advice
gathered might occur
Create a range of uncertainties for any two Brainstorm with your team to identify
Identify the short-term milestones
driving forces at a time to create a series of measurable signposts or scenario triggers to
that should occur for the scenario to
scenario matrices, and use the likely truths to alert supply chain leaders when a particular
happen. Based on the uncertainty of the
define the scenarios. Assess these decisions scenario might arise, and define their expected
driving forces considered for building
using a single-scenario matrix based on the date of occurrence.
the scenario, determine the cadence for
two critical driving forces and develop a final
tracking these signposts.
list of three to six scenarios. Task C3
Test the plausibility of critical
scenarios with the scenario
planning team
Select a representative to present the scenarios
to the working group, asking the group to assess
the scenarios along dimensions and revise
based on feedback.

10  Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for Supply Chain

Step C
Scenario Development Tool
Write the extreme outcomes of each uncertainty on the two ends of the axes. For
each quadrant, analyze how the two extreme uncertainties’ outcomes will interact
when considered simultaneously within the context of the likely truths identified.

Scenario A Scenario B

Scenario D Scenario C

11  Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for Supply Chain

Step D:
Use Scenarios
to Facilitate and
Refine Supply
Chain Strategy
Step D

Use Scenarios to Facilitate and

Refine Supply Chain Strategy
Task D1 Task D2
Pressure-test the current supply Create an action plan to
chain strategic plan and its respond to potential scenarios Gartner advice
initiatives Review the results of the pressure-testing
Collaborate with functional leaders across the exercise to articulate the adjusted strategy
and goals for each scenario and define the Periodically track signposts or scenario
supply chain organization to determine whether
ownership and timelines. triggers to determine whether scenarios
their planned initiatives to support the strategic
are materializing. Based on the possibility
plan are robust enough to ensure that the
of the scenarios occurring, revise the
supply chain can stay on course to achieve the Task D3 initiative portfolio to reflect the changes.
strategic plan objectives under each scenario. Prioritize action plan responses
Look for similarities across the action plans for
each scenario and prioritize executing on those
plans that cut across multiple scenarios to
maximize response efforts.

13  Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for Supply Chain

Step D
Scenario Action Plan Prioritization

Strategic Response Rank response

Options Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Priority options by prioritizing
those that cut across
multiple scenarios and
Action Plan those with the most
Response 1 “start” and “accelerate”
Option 1 approaches.

Action Plan
Response N/A 2
Option 2

Action Plan
Response N/A N/A 3
Option 3

Accelerate Decelerate Start Continue Stop

14  Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for Supply Chain

Step D

Review Your
Performance
To further improve the scenario planning
process, review your performance by:
• Documenting key lessons learned from the scenario planning
exercise conducted.
• Seeking feedback from the scenario planning team and
external stakeholders on the scenario planning exercise.
• Reflecting on the accuracy of the scenarios and document
lessons learned.

15  Ignition Guide to Conducting Scenario Planning for Supply Chain

About Gartner for Supply Chain Leaders

Gartner for Supply Chain Leaders delivers actionable insights and best Gartner for
practices for supply chain executives to improve business performance. Supply Chain

Benchmark your performance with data-driven Our unmatched combination of expert-led, Gartner for Supply Chain clients have access
insights. Prioritize investments and areas of practitioner sourced and data-driven research to additional resources and tools to help them
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priorities with speed and confidence. the issues that matter most. We’re trusted as
Gartner is the world’s leading research and an objective resource and critical advisor by For more information on scenario planning,
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organizations of tomorrow.

©16 
2020Ignition Guide
Gartner, Inc. toitsConducting
and/or Scenario
affiliates. All rights reserved. Planning for Supply
CM_GBS_987677 Chain