The 2020 NBA Offseason

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The document provides analysis and evaluations of all 30 NBA teams for the 2020 offseason based on data, analytics, and basketball resources.

The authors have backgrounds in fields such as sport business management, marketing, finance, and data science. Their career goals include roles in basketball operations, scouting, data analytics, and player development in the NBA.

To provide expert analysis on the evaluation of all 30 NBA teams using the CBA, data analytics, and advanced statistics to determine what each team should do in the offseason.

BROOKLYN NETS

David Eichenberger, Zach Smith, Spencer Weber, Zach Weber


UCF Sport Business Management & FSU Masters of Data Science
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]

David Eichenberger, Zach Smith, Spencer Weber, Zach Weber


[COMPANY NAME] [Company address]
D Eichenberger, Z Smith, S Weber, Z Weber 1
UCF Sport Business Management

About Us
For the 2020 NBA Offseason, David Eichenberger, Zach Smith, Spencer Weber, and
Zach Weber created a document with evaluations of all 30 teams using data, intel, and basketball
resources to decide what each team should look to do in this offseason. David is currently in his
first year at the University of Central Florida DeVos Sport Business Management Master’s
Program with an intended graduation date of December 2021 with his MBA and Sport
Management degree. He received his bachelor’s degree in Marketing from the University of
South Florida with a concentration in Sport Management and a minor in Leadership Studies.
David is intending to pursue a career in the NBA in the scouting department, video department,
or in basketball operations. Zach Smith is currently an undergraduate senior at the University of
Central Florida majoring in Integrated Business and minoring in Sport Business Management
with an intended graduation date of August 2021. Zach is intending to pursue a career in the
NBA in the data analytics department as a data scientist or in basketball operations. Spencer is
currently an undergraduate senior at the University of Central Florida majoring in Human
Communication on a specialized track in Business and Professional Communication and
minoring in Sport Business Management with an intended graduation date of May 2021. He also
has received a certificate in Criminal Profiling. Spencer is intending to pursue a career in the
NBA in player development or in the data analytics department using data driven decision
making. Zach Weber is currently in his first year at Florida State University Master’s Program
with an intended graduation date of May 2021 with his Master’s in Business Analytics. He
received his bachelor’s degree in Finance from Florida State University with a minor in Business
Analytics. Zach is intending to pursue a career in the NBA in the data analytics department as a
data analyst.
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Abstract
Over the past several months, we have worked tirelessly as a collective group to put
together a document to provide expert analysis on the evaluation of all 30 teams. Using the CBA,
data analytics, and advanced statistics, these were our findings and assessments of the teams in
the NBA. First, we would like to thank Professor Scott Bukstein for his motivation,
encouragement, and knowledge in advising and assisting us in our project. His support
throughout our process has been extremely appreciated and helped us stay focused on our end
goal. We would also like to thank the creators of the public resources used in order to put this
project together. Please feel free to reach out us with any questions or inquires on any of the
analyses provided throughout the document.

Thank you.
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ATLANTA HAWKS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
I. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 6
b. Round 2: Pick 50
II. Team Needs
a. Secondary Ball Handler
i. Trae Young needs help in the back court as the Hawks ran an
extremely heliocentric offense this season. Young was the only
player with over 600 minutes and had less than 85% of their
threes assisted.
b. 3&D Wing
i. Atlanta needs another wing to compete with De’Andre Hunter,
Cam Reddish, and Kevin Huerter for minutes. They showed
some potential this season but struggled to defend consistently.
III. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Free Agency
I. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
II. Free Agent Targets
III. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 6
Choice #1
Deni Avdija 19 yrs old, F, Maccabi Tel Aviv
(ISBL)
6’9 220lbs; 6’9 Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 12.9 PPG; 6.3 RPG; 2.7 APG; 0.9 STL;
2.2 TO; 52.6% FG; 35.3% 3FG

Deni Avdija is an elite level international talent. He


is an all-around offensive player that can be a half
court creator. He has a great feel for the game. He is
a strong defensive player that shows consistent
effort on that end. He flaunts a high floor due to his
mixed bag of skills.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Great feel for the game • Translation of three-point shooting,
• Cuts well off the ball, slips screens well footwork is main mechanical issue
• Nice touch around the rim • Low free throw percentage
• Great handle for a bigger wing • Average burst out of first step
• Able to get his shot off whenever • Right hand dominant
• Intelligent passer • Tries to do too much at times
• Physical defender, solid athlete • Top tier athletes can beat him downhill
• Shown added strength over past year
NBA Comparison: Hedo Turkoglu, Danny Granger, Joe Ingles+
 Deni Avdija is a top prospect in this class due to his high floor and foundational skills
that could also lead to an extremely high ceiling if his shooting translates to the NBA.
He can add immediate value at the three or four as a secondary creator. Defensively,
he is better than given credit for. He reads passing lanes well does a good job of
blocking shots at well. He is a playmaker on both ends of the floor.
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Choice #2
Killian Hayes 19 yrs old, PG, ULM
(Bundesliga)
6’5 195lbs; 6'8 ¼” Wingspan
2019-20 (10 games): 12.8 PPG; 2.3 RPG; 6.2 APG; 1.5
STL; 45.5% FG; 39% 3FG

Killian Hayes is considered by some a top 3 guard


in this draft with the potential to go in the top 5.
His playmaking ability in the pick and roll along
with raw scoring ability makes him one of the
more intriguing guards in the draft.

Strengths Weaknesses
• High passing IQ, can make any pass out • Unnecessary risky passes out of downhill
of the pick and roll, and does a good job drives
of drawing attention when attacking • Kills dribble going to right
downhill • Ball watches, struggles to move well off
• Underrated burst when attacking ball
downhill • Low sample size of free throws, but
• Creates space with footwork well excels at hitting free throws
• Solid change of pace and special • Struggles to shoot off the catch, issues lie
awareness in footwork.
• High confidence when looking for shot, • Average perimeter defender at best
solid touch and range with floater
NBA Comparison: DeAngelo Russell, Manu Ginobili, Goran Dragic
 Killian fits what a rebuilding team is looking for in a guard pairing for the future. He
has shown leadership ability and ability to be a floor general. He will need vast
improvement on making defenders weary of his weak hand.
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Choice #3
Isaac Okoro 19 yrs old, F, Auburn
6’6 225lbs; 6’9 Wingspan
2019-20: 12.8 PPG; 4.4 RPG; 2.0 APG; 0.9
STL; 2.0 TO; 51.4% FG; 28.6% 3FG

Okoro is the prototypical build for an


NBA forward. A long, athletic swing
prospect with a strong defensive
presence that can play point of attack
against an opponent’s top scorer.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Strong ability to finish off both feet at • Struggles to score outside paint
the rim, not afraid of contact • Needs improved shooting mechanics,
• Poise and composure at a young age, footwork
does not gamble • Looks lost on offense when slashing
• Solid first step, rips well in triple threat lanes taken away
• Great defensive instincts/awareness, • Always looking to spin or Euro step,
moves well laterally, can guard 1-5 low variety of moves
• Active off ball defender with solid • Inconsistent free throw shooter
spatial awareness • No off dribble jump shot
• Capable shooter off catch • Can get sloppy/out of control on drives
NBA Comparison: Justice Winslow, Justin Anderson, Jaylen Brown
 Isaac Okoro is a high value wing defender with low offensive production from outside
the paint. Okoro has an impressive demeanor and shows maturity. His role will be to
guard the number one option every night.
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ROUND 2 PICK 50
Choice #1
Elijah Hughes 22 yrs old G, Syracuse
6’6 215lbs; 6’10” Wingspan
2019-20: 19.0 PPG; 4.9 RPG; 3.4 APG; 1.2 STL; 2.3
TO; 42.7% FG; 34.2% 3FG

Hughes is a translatable volume shooter. He


may struggle to create space off the dribble.
On defense, he could struggle to guard on the
ball early in his career, while being a decent
defender in passing lanes.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Shooter from three and midrange, solid • Injury history (hand, groin, concussion)
form except knee rotation • Questions of if he is mentally committed
• Draws fouls at a high rate, uses fakes (3 high schools, 2 colleges, struggled to
well be NCAA eligible)
• Plays up to his competition • Struggles to create shots at the rim
• Team defense, vocal leader on backside • Basic passing reads, plays hero ball of
• Good shot blocker as secondary the PNR
defender, charge taker • Lacks explosion
• Showed statistical improvement over his • Low motor on defense, does not attack
career the glass at all
NBA Comparison: Dwayne Bacon, Jordan Poole
 Elijah Hughes to needs be a microwave scorer if he wants a spot in this league.
Adding an ability to create space off the dribble will make him a much more desirable
prospect. His shooting is elite for a prospect even though his percentages do not show
it. On defense, he has to be a high effort player that does everything.
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Choice #2
Abdoulaye N’Doye 22 yrs old, G, AS Monaco
(LNB)
6’7 205lbs; 7’2” Wingspan
2019-20 (25 games): 10.1 PPG; 4.2 RPG; 4.0 APG; 2.0 TOV,
1.3 STL; 52.3% FG; 44.1% 3FG

Abdoulaye N’Doye will be a draft and stash


candidate as he just signed a contract with AS
Monaco. N’Doye has great physical tools. He uses
these tools well to get off whatever shot he wants on
offense and to contest shots on defense.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Good ball handler in PNR • May struggle to get downhill when
• Solid passer (2:1 AST:TO) quicker bigs switch onto him
• Great physical tools at the guard spot • Not an explosive in game athlete
• Good touch on runners, can get that shot • Low volume shooter
off whenever he wants • Not necessarily a primary facilitator
• Very comfortable shooting from three, • Needs to add strength and fill out frame
can shoot over guards • Smaller guards get downhill on him
• Can guard one through three • Crowds ball at times instead of using
• Hustles on defense length

NBA Comparison: Dejounte Murray, Shaun Livingston


 Abdoulaye N’Doye is a versatile secondary playmaker. Considering he just signed a
contract; he could be a draft and stash candidate for a year or could be bought out of
his contract. N’Doye projects as a good end of rotation piece due to his excellent
length and size. He may struggle to create his own shot at some level. His initial
impact will most likely be on the defensive end.
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Choice #3
Yam Madar 19 yrs old, G, Hapoel Tel Aviv (BSL)
6’3 180lbs
2019-20 (32 games): 10.6 PPG; 2.4 RPG; 3.4 APG; 2.6 TO, 1.0
STL; 44.4% FG; 26.7% 3FG

Yam Madar improved his draft stock toward the end of


the BSL season. He is a defense first guard with a great
motor. He defends well in the pick and roll as well as
point of attack actions. Most of his offense comes from
5-20 feet. He has potential to be a three-point shooter
but still has a way to go.
Strengths Weaknesses
• FT% points toward progression with • Undersized off-ball guard
shooting (81.2%) • Decision making is a minus, not a
• Creates space in the midrange dynamic facilitator
• Decent touch on floater • Statistically poor three-point shooter
• Invites contact (26.7%)
• Can pick up 94ft on defense • Below average athleticism, plays
• Fights hard through screens primarily below the rim
• Exceptional motor • Questions about how he would do with
increased volume

NBA Comparison: Patrick Beverly, Ish Smith


 Yam Madar is an unknown commodity with solid potential. He is a plus on defense
immediately due to the effort he gives on that end of the floor. He would fit well in
DHO actions as he can get downhill without isolating on the ball. His shooting still
needs work, but he is young. He still has time to add that to his repertoire.
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Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Trent Forrest, 22 years old, 6’4, Florida State
2. Saben Lee, 21 years old, 6’2, Vanderbilt
3. Myles Powell, 23 years old, 6’2, Seton Hall

Free Agents
I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Jeff Teague $19,000,000
2. Treveon Graham $1,645,357
3. Vince Carter $1,620,564
II. Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
1. DeAndre’ Bembry $3,752,337
2. Damian Jones $3,457,586
3. Skal Labissiere $3,484,882
III. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Brandon Goodwin $1,701,593
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): $47,401,266
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $55,911,492
Who stays, Who goes
▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Jeff Teague (Projected $5,000,000-$8,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 36.5%]
Jeff Teague was traded to Atlanta after 34 games in Minnesota this year. This is his
second stint with Atlanta after being traded to the Pacer in the 2016 offseason. He was
a midseason pickup that filled the role of backup point guard while also playing spot
minutes alongside Trae Young. He was an average player on offense. He did not take
many threes (0.18 3PTr), instead opting to attack the basket even though Coach Pierce
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publicly said that he wanted Teague to shoot from the perimeter more. On defense,
Teague really struggled. According to PIPM, RPM, RAPTOR, and BPM, Teague was
in the 15th percentile amongst point guards at best. He has lost a step on the defensive
end of the floor and cannot compete on that end of the floor anymore. That along with
his age, point to Teague not resigning in Atlanta.
2. Treveon Graham (Projected: Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 28.1%]
Treveon Graham struggled to get legitimate rotation minutes since he was traded to the
hawks alongside Jeff Teague. He was relegated to mainly garbage time minutes. He
shot 35.1% from three in a very small sample size. When adding in his three-point
shots from Minnesota, he shot 27.5% from three. At this point he is an offensive
liability considering more than half his shots came from three-point range. Almost a
third of his threes were left wide open due to his reputation as a nonshooter (97th
percentile amongst guards). On defense, he is a good hustle player with a high motor,
but he is does not necessarily show the capability to be a major plus on that end by any
means. His shooting is the swing skill that will keep him on a roster, but he has not
stuck yet while being four years into his career. Atlanta will look at different options at
the backup two spot.
3. DeAndre’ Bembry (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 53.0%]
DeAndre’ Bembry is the longest tenured Atlanta Hawk after four years with the team.
As the Hawks management and ownership have professed their need for playoff
contention, Bembry could be on the way out. He faced very real injury issues, missing
36% of Atlanta’s games this past season. On top of that, he was one of the worst
offensive players in the league this last year, especially regarding scoring specifically.
He shot 23.1% from three on 65 attempts. Considering he only took 28.5% of his shots
from behind the three-point line, he was good at getting to the rim and creating
contact. Almost half of his shots were at the rim and shot a slightly above average
percentage (60.3%), but he could not draw contact. He had a FTr of 0.21, well below
the league average of 0.26. His passing dropped off slightly as well as he was put more
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in on ball situations instead of being in triple threat situations where he can create off
one or two dribbles. Defensively, he is extremely intelligent and versatile. He can
consistently guard the one through three. He is not exceptional as a defender though.
His defense does not add enough value to negate the complete negative that he is on
offense.
4. Vince Carter (Retired)
Vince Carter was a good veteran locker room presence for the young Atlanta Hawks
core. He struggled on the court this past season, having a TS% of 47% and providing -
0.2 Win Shares, but that was never his role with this team. His off-court value will be
missed as he is retiring and joining the ESPN’s basketball analyst staff.
5. Damian Jones (Projected: $3,000,000-$6,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 18.4%]
Damian Jones was not very valuable for the Hawks this year. In his first three seasons
with Golden State, he did not get much playing time. This showed during his season
with Atlanta. He made a lot of “rookie” mistakes. On offense, almost all of his
possessions came from being the screener in pick and roll possessions. He shot
extremely well around the rim (75.6%) and half of his field goal attempts. He is a very
real vertical threat in that action. Outside of that, he does not really add anything. He
does not space the floor, add value in the post, or create for others. On defense, he is
an average interior defender, but by no means a shot blocker or play maker. He takes a
rather long time to load vertically and his athleticism does not translate to his lateral
movement. He contested 36% of attempts at the rim (44th percentile amongst centers).
If Jones receives a contract offer for anything more than a minimum, it is most likely
better for Atlanta to move on.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Brandon Goodwin (Non-Guaranteed $1,701,593)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 2 Year Deal: 73.9%]
Brandon Goodwin struggled on the offensive end for Atlanta. He had a few flashes,
namely 19 fourth quarter points against the Clippers and a 21-point game against the
Magic. He was extremely inefficient in his 34 games this season with a TS% of
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50.7%, almost six percentage points below the league average. His size is an issue on
the offensive end of the floor as he does not have the length to create space and finish
shots over defenders. Defensively, he is an annoyance, consistently getting in his
opponents’ personal space. His size is an issue on this end of the floor as well. He has
the motor to be decent on defense but does not have the capacity to. He should be the
Hawk’s third point guard on the depth chart at best next season.
2. Skal Labissiere (Restricted $3,000,000-$6,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 31.8%]
Skal Labissiere was traded to Atlanta in a midseason deal. He delt with a season
ending knee injury, so he never got the chance to suit up for Atlanta in the 2019-20
season. He played 33 games and 567 minutes with Portland. He was relegated to
primarily garbage time minutes and a few spot rotations minutes. He has a unique
faceup game. This does not really stretch out to the three-point line as he struggled to
connect from three on limited attempts. He mainly lived in the midrange. On defense,
he was exception as a rim deterrent. He contested 49% of rim attempts (93rd percentile
amongst centers) and contested 12.8 rim attempts per 75 possessions (100th percentile).
This shows consistent effort at defending the rim. This hustle combined with his
length could add some serious potential to an Atlanta team looking for talent.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Brandon Ingram 6’7 190lbs 23 years old, PF/SF, Current Salary: $7,265,485
Projected Annual Salary: Maximum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 4 Year Deal: 0.0%
Brandon Ingram has just come off a breakout season with New Orleans. He is absolutely worth a
full maximum contract. He is a high usage first or second option. As far as offense goes, he
showed improvement shooting from three. He shot as many threes this past season as he shot in
his first three seasons combined while shooting 39% from behind the arc. He was a solid player
in isolation as well due to his offensive versatility. His length allows him to get off whatever shot
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he wants. His best offensive skills are his slashing and playmaking. He gets downhill off the
dribble (31% of two pointers were assisted) and takes contact extremely well. He created 19.7
potential assists per 100 passes, good for the 86th percentile amongst wings. Ingram acts as a
point forward at times, showing an ability to create for others. There are still questions about his
defense. His motor is inconsistent on defense. His length is not much of an asset on that end of
the floor, as he does not add much value in passing lanes, point of attack, or pack line. He does
show potential as a versatile defender, spending significant time guarding the two through four.
With New Orleans, he typically guarded one of the worst players on the court to allow him to
play off-ball. All in all, Ingram is one of the best free agents in this class.

Option #2:
Danilo Gallinari 6’10 235lbs 32 years old, PF/SF, Current Salary: $22,615,559
Projected Annual Salary: $20,000,000-$25,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 26.1%
Danilo Gallinari is an exciting free agent to look at because of his dominance on the offensive
side of the floor, while being one of the worst defenders at his position. While with Oklahoma
City, he put up 22.8 points per 36 minutes. He lived beyond the perimeter, shooting 41% on 439
attempts from three. His defender is typically stuck on his hip because he is a threat to shoot
from anywhere on the floor. He gets to a lot of these three pointers off pick and pop actions.
Gallinari also adds value as an isolation scorer. He takes 4.8 iso possessions per 75, good for the
91st percentile amongst wings. He is rather average at finishing around the rim, especially for his
size. Most of his shots around the rim come from post ups, using his body to create advantage
situations. On the defensive end of the floor, he struggles mightily on the perimeter. Gallinari is
sought after frequently in pick in roll coverages for switches as teams will take advantage of his
lack of lateral quickness to get downhill. On the interior, Gallinari is an average player, analytics
point to him being a plus due to his points saved around the rim and decreased dFG% when he is
defending. Overall, Gallinari is a great offensive scorer from the perimeter as well as screener in
the pick and pop but a very poor defender that can be attacked.

Option #3:
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Bogdan Bogdanovic 6’6 220lbs, 28 years old, SG, Current Salary: $8,529,386
Projected Annual Salary: $15,000,000-$20,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 29.2%
Bogdan Bogdanovic’s archetype is a floor spacing secondary facilitator. He is an underrated
playmaker, averaging 4.2 assists per 36 minutes. He made aggressive passes, refusing to settle
for easy looks at times. Bogdanovic spaces the floor extremely well, with a shooting gravity in
the 91st percentile according to Bball Index. He is adequate at moving off the ball, not providing
much in terms of cutting, but moves around the perimeter well. Defensively, Bogdanovic is
capable, but should not be relied upon to guard the primary wing. He is best at guarding spot up
shooters and off-ball cutters. He has shown consistent improvement over his first 3 seasons in the
NBA with an increased BPM, VORP, and WS/48 each season.

Option #4:
Kris Dunn 6’3 205lbs 26 years old, PG, Current Salary: $5,348,007
Projected Annual Salary: $8,000,000-$10,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 59.5%
Kris Dunn just came off an all-defense level season, receiving the 11th most votes (31). He was
labeled by many as a best early in his career but has carved out a solid role as a strong perimeter
defender. On the offensive end of the floor, is where he struggled to add value. As an outside
shooter, he is one of the worst in the league (23.5% from three off the dribble, 26.6% from three
off the dribble). Some players such as Marcus Smart who struggle from three still add value as a
shooter because of their shot volume leading to gravity, but that is not the case for Dunn as he
was in the 4th percentile amongst guards in Total 3PT Gravity according to Bball Index. He is a
slight plus at getting to the rim and finishing. He is very much an average playmaker, typically
acting as a passive creator. Defensively, he can guard the one through three. He is one of the best
perimeter defenders in the league, especially as a play maker in passing lanes. He was in the
100th percentile for Steals per 75 and deflections per 75. His role is to guard his opponents’
number one option on the floor.

Option #5:
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Jevon Carter: 6’1 200lbs 25 years old, PG, Current Salary $1,416,852
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 20.3%
Jevon Carter is an end of rotation signing to add value in specific matchups. Carter drew some
notoriety as a backup point guard during his eight-game run with the Suns in the bubble which
included a 20-point game against the Miami Heat. On the offensive end of the floor, he is only a
plus as a three-point shooter off the catch. He made threes at a good clip, but he did not face
much defensive focus. That 42% clip could face decline if he gets more attention from defenses
as well as when volume increases. Outside of that, Carter is a negative everywhere else on the
offensive side of the ball. Defensively, Carter is a top tier perimeter defender. He uses his body
extremely well and makes it tough for ball handlers. He is a tough defender both as a point of
attack defender and as a team defender.

Trade Scenarios
1. Chicago Bulls
Bulls Receiving: De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, Dewayne
Dedmon, 2021 Unprotected 1st round
Hawks Receiving: Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen, Daniel
Gafford
If Chicago is contemplating whether or not Zach LaVine is their franchise centerpiece, it
may be time to cash in on his career season. In this trade, the Atlanta Hawks acquire a
terrific young guard talent in LaVine, a proven stretch big in Lauri Markkanen, who has
had some injury obstacles, and a promising small ball five in Daniel Gafford. Markkanen
does a great job of spacing the floor even if his percentages do not show it. His shooting
gravity ranked in the 95th percentile amongst bigs. The price for this haul of prospects is
steep for Atlanta. In this trade, Chicago acquires a young stout defender in De’Andre
Hunter, and athletic four in John Collins, a salary filler in Dewayne Dedmon who may
serve as a rotational piece as a veteran stretch big, and a 2021 unprotected first round
pick. John Collins hits restricted free agency at the end of the 2021 season and could be
in for a pay day if he plays well in Chicago.
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2. New Orleans Pelicans


Pelicans Receiving: De’Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter, 2021 1st
round (lottery protected)
Hawks Receiving: Brandon Ingram
This trade would result because of a sign and trade situation for Brandon Ingram. He may want
out of New Orleans depending on the internal discussions with his camp. Atlanta would be
willing to offer him a full max deal while the Pelicans do not want their asset to just walk out the
door. This would allow Atlanta to also sign Ingram for an extra fifth year. This deal may satisfy
New Orleans as they receive draft capital in a loaded class, a backup for JJ Redick, and more
depth at the wing. Atlanta cannot turn this opportunity down to add an All-Star caliber piece next
to Trae Young.

3. Toronto Raptors
Raptors Receiving: Clint Capela
Hawks Receiving: 2020 2nd Round Pick (59th overall), 2022 1st
Round Pick (Top 10 protected), 2023 2nd Round Pick
This trade is the result of Toronto’s losses to the free agency market. Marc Gasol is said to be
going back to Spain to play, while Serge Ibaka may get priced out of Toronto. He has already
deleted all social media content related to the Raptors. With a completely depleted five spot, they
will be looking for players to plug in. Clint Capela, an unproven asset for Atlanta as he has yet to
suit up for them, may be the perfect piece. This trade sends some serious trade capital to Atlanta
as they get two seconds and a protected first in a draft that is projected to be deep. This also
allows Atlanta to go all in on small-ball and play John Collins fulltime at the five. This trade will
have to be completed after Gasol’s and Ibaka’s cap holds are removed off Toronto’s books.
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BOSTON CELTICS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
IV. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Picks 14, 26 and 30
b. Round 2: Pick 47
V. Team Needs
a. Best Player Available
i. The Boston Celtics will return, at minimum, 12 players from
last year’s roster and are pretty much a finished product. This
team will be looking to add players that can round out an
impressive young core and contribute immediately, similarly to
Grant Williams from last season.
b. Switchable big
i. One issue Boston ran into in the bubble was their inability to
match up at the ‘5’ in small ball lineups, especially against the
Miami Heat. If Boston wants to take the next step and break
through the east, they will need to add a 4 or 5 that is playable
on both ends in the playoffs.
VI. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Celtics Free Agency
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IV. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
V. Free Agent Targets
VI. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 14
Choice #1
Patrick Williams 19 yrs old, F, Florida State
6’8 225lbs; 6’11 Wingspan
2019-20 (29 games): 9.2 PPG; 4.0 RPG; 1.0 APG; 1.0 STL;
1.0 BLK; 1.7 TO; 45.9% FG; 32.0% 3FG

Patrick Williams is a raw prospect that has lofty


projections on the defensive end of the floor and has
shown the potential to score in multiple ways on the
offensive end. He can become a solid contributor on
both ends.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Great feel for the game • Translation of three-point shooting,
• Cuts well off the ball, slips screens well footwork is main mechanical issue
• Nice touch around the rim • Low free throw percentage
• Great handle for a bigger wing • Average burst out of first step
• Can screen and ball handle in the PnR • Right hand dominant
• Plus shooter off the dribble mid-range • Tries to do too much at times
• Physical defender, solid athlete • Top tier athletes can beat him downhill
• Shown added strength over past year
NBA Comparison: Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker & O.G. Anunboy
 Patrick Williams comes into the league with an NBA ready frame. On offense, he
projects as a three or small four with potential to facilitate in low volume situations.
He is versatile in the pick and roll, with potential to be the ball handler or screener. A
swing skill for him is his first step in POA actions, because he can already finish
above defenders off the dribble. On defense, he has the size, but his footwork as well
as quick twitch burst is questionable.
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Choice #2
Precious Achiuwa 21 yrs old, F, Memphis
6’9 225lbs; 7’2 Wingspan
2019-20: 15.8 PPG; 10.8 RPG; 1.0 APG; 1.1 STL; 1.9
BLK; 49.3% FG; 32% 3FG (40 attempts)

Precious Achiuwa’s athletic ability is off the


charts along with a great ability to handle the ball
for a big man. His energy throughout the season
was infectious. He is a prototypical small ball
center who flashed the ability to shoot the ball.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Highest motor player in the draft, going to • Raw offensively and lacks disciplined
give 110% on every play footwork
• Explosive, physical, thick body; high • Needs improvement on both his shooting
ability to finish through contact and with form and his footwork
aggression • Below average moving laterally and
• Runs the floor well in transition positioning
• Great ability to handle the ball for his size • Poor shot selection, streaky shooter
• Strong on the defensive end, defensive • Poor free throw shooter
playmaker who can guard 2-5 • Quick to pick up his dribble
NBA Comparison: Montrezl Harrell, Draymond Green, John Collins
 Precious Achiuwa ranked 2nd in the American in put back scoring (3.0 PPG), ranked 2nd
in the American in cut scoring (3.2 PPG), and ranked 3rd in the American in roll man
scoring (1.8 PPG). His growth as a playmaker and transformation to an all-around talent
throughout the season shows great promise.
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Choice #3
Isaiah Stewart 19 yrs old, C,
Washington
6’9 250lbs; 7’4” Wingspan
2019-20 (32 games): 17.0 PPG; 8.8 RPG; 0.8
APG; 2.1 BLK; 2.2 TO; 57% FG; 25% 3FG
Isaiah Stewart is a prototypical small
ball five with a high motor. He is
coming into the league with elite length
and strength. He excels on the offensive
glass as an energizer bunny. Potential to
improve comes with a consistent jump
shot.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Top player in this draft in regard to • Guarding the PNR will be a problem for
off court value and team interviews him
• High motor rim runner • Jump shot is not there
• Nice touch in mid post • Blackhole on offense (0.4:1.0 AST:TO)
• Uses NBA ready frame to draw fouls • Only 15% of his offensive possessions
at a high rate were PNR
• 19 years old • Limited ceiling, rim running centers are
• Can attack mismatches in the post by replaceable
playing bully ball • Poor footwork, lacks quick vertical and
poor first step when attacking downhill
NBA Comparison: Antonio Davis, Montrezl Harrel
 Isaiah Stewart is a high motor five man. He is a great runner in straight line situations,
namely transition possessions. He has exceeded all teams’ expectations as far as draft
interviews go. His ceiling will be determined by how he improves as a shooter. There
are also questions regarding his ability to guard perimeter players in space.
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ROUND 1 PICK 26 & 30


Choice #1
Jah Ramsey 19 yrs old G, Texas Tech
6’2 190lbs; 6’6” Wingspan
2019-20: 15.0 PPG; 4.0 RPG; 2.2 APG; 1.3 STL; 2.0 TO;
44.2% FG; 42.6% 3FG

Jah Ramsey has potential as a scorer off the bench.


He has a nice shot off the catch and off the dribble.
He needs to work on finishing around the rim and
shot selection. Defensively, he has the build but
struggles to be consistent. He needs work on guarding
actions like PNR.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Plus shooter from three-point range • Basketball IQ
• Can score off the dribble • Very streaky shooter
• Handles the ball well • Struggles to finish around the rim
• Plus athlete vertically and laterally • Average passer at best
• Decent defender when locked in, best • Undersize 2 guard
guarding in POA • Struggles to guard PNR and make
• Scores well in transition rotations
• Defensive footwork needs work
NBA Comparison: Jordan Clarkson, Dillon Brooks
 Jah Ramsey has potential as a future 6th man. He may struggle initially with his
shooting efficiency due to his struggle to create space at times when playing on the
ball and his low free throw shooting numbers. It would not be surprising if he has a
few games his rookie season where he goes for more than 20 points. On defense, he
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may struggle to initially as well due to his lack of ability to guard simple actions like
pick and rolls.

Choice #2
Leandro Bolmaro 20 yrs old, F, FC
Barcelona (Liga ACB)
6’7 200lbs; 6'9” Wingspan
2019-20 (7 games): 4.4 PPG; 1.1 RPG; 1.4 APG; 0.9
STL; 46.4% FG; 50.0% 3FG

Leandro Bolmaro is a draft and stash secondary


creator. He has the skills of a guard with the
size of a lanky wing. His jump shot will be his
swing skill. Defensively, he adds consistent
effort and the potential to check primary
playmakers.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Great court vision and passing skill • Footwork on jump shot needs to be
• Quick handle for a creating wing completely rebuilt
• High confidence, plays with a chip on his • Struggles to stay on balance
shoulder • Turnover prone with his risky passing
• Good change of pace and passing show • Adding size would do him well
potential as a PNR ball handler • May struggle to guard quicker guards
• High effort defender, tags well attacking downhill
• Willing to guard anyone in POA • Lacks athletic burst, rim protection
• Potential as secondary creator

NBA Comparison: Greivis Vasquez, Donte DiVincenzo


 Leandro Bolmaro has potential as a potential as slashing wing with legitimate guard
skills and passing vision. His floor is a high effort defensive player that can add value
on offense with his facilitation. His swing skill is his jumper. His foundation needs
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work as he struggles with consistent footwork, especially with his landing. Adding
floor spacing to his game would open up his offense.

Choice #3
Vernon Carey Jr 19 yrs old, F/C, Duke
6’10 270lbs
2019-20 (31 Games): 17.8 PPG; 8.8 RPG; 1.0 APG; 0.7
STL; 2.0 TO; 57.7% FG; 38.1% 3FG

Vernon Carey would be a top 10 pick 10 years


ago. Unfortunately for him the league is trending
away from back to the basket ‘bigs’ and are
instead looking for players who can defend in
space and stretch the floor. Carey could still
provide a team with tremendous offensive
efficiency and energy rebounding.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Ability to catch and rip past defenders from the • Struggles on defense
elbow/post • Slow defender/ not an aware
• Athletic & coordinated pick n’ roller defender/will struggle to defend in
• Strong frame space
• Rim running • Long/ slow set shot
• Confident low post scorer • Poor vision
• Limited shooting range
• Blackhole on offense
NBA Comparison: Jahlil Okafor, Enes Kanter
 Vernon Carey is a brute down low. He crushes undersized 4’s & 5’s on the offensive
end but defensively really struggles to keep up. He will need to rework his long set
shot and become a more consistent from deep otherwise he will clog the floor for
NBA teams.
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Choice #4
Xavier Tillman 21 yrs old, C, Michigan State
6’8 245lbs; 7’1” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 13.7 PPG; 10.3 RPG; 3.0 APG; 2.1
BLK; 2.0 TO; 55.0% FG; 26.0% 3FG

Xavier Tillman is an undersized big man who can


score in the post and off cuts to the rim. He is an
above average passer. Defensively, he is
extremely intelligent and excels in most defensive
disciplines. His ceiling is capped by his age, lack
of shooting, and explosiveness.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Creative screener, sets hard picks • Consistency issues on jump shot
• Good scorer on off-ball cuts • Undersized center
• Good passer in short roll out of PNR • Not very mobile or athletic
• Extremely strong, high motor • Age is a ceiling limiter
• Vocal defender • Not much of a shot creator off the dribble
• Can switch when defending PNR
NBA Comparison: Derrick Favors, Khem Birch
 Xavier Tillman has a high floor and a rather low ceiling. He is a hard-working role
player who gets his teammates open with hard screens in unique locations and
actions. He will be a capable big in the PNR as he can finish around the rim or create
for other in the short roll. He will not offer floor spacing by any means. He is an
excellent defender but is undersized and is not very explosive. Off the court, Tillman
is one the best prospects in this class.
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ROUND 2 PICK 47
Choice #1
Payton Pritchard 22 yrs old, G,
Oregon
6’2 206lbs; 6’4½ Wingspan
2019-20: 20.5 PPG; 4.3 RPG; 5.5 APG; 1.5
STL; 2.7 TO; 46.8% FG; 41.5% 3FG

Payton Pritchard is a 4-year player who


took massive leaps and truly took the
reins of the offense on all levels. His
leadership and energy make him an
NBA ready guard ready to make an
impact upon arrival in the league.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Competitor/leader on the floor • Lacks physical intangibles
• 3 level scorer with shooting range out to • Inconsistent mid-range game, may
30 feet struggle to get downhill in NBA
• Great ball-handler/playmaker, • On-ball creator, doesn’t add much
especially in the pick and roll off-ball, traditional point guard
• Locks in defensively and is able to be a • Can be a streaky shooter, forces
pest/frustrate ball handlers shots
• High IQ; good communication amongst • Not huge potential for growth, 4-
teammates year player, 22 years old
NBA Comparison: T.J. McConnell, Jalen Brunson, Carlos Arroyo
 Prichard has continuously showed his ability to command a team and elevate his play
year after year. Coming into the draft with a bit of experience, he is a player that can
come into a team and add value in a role off the bench. He is a shot creator with NBA
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level shooting range that can create for others out of the pick and roll. There will not
be much of a learning curve for him.

Choice #2
Abdoulaye N’Doye 22 yrs old, G, AS Monaco
(LNB)
6’7 205lbs; 7’2” Wingspan
2019-20 (25 games): 10.1 PPG; 4.2 RPG; 4.0 APG; 2.0 TOV,
1.3 STL; 52.3% FG; 44.1% 3FG

Abdoulaye N’Doye will be a draft and stash


candidate as he just signed a contract with AS
Monaco. N’Doye has great physical tools. He uses
these tools well to get off whatever shot he wants on
offense and to contest shots on defense.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Good ball handler in PNR • May struggle to get downhill when
• Solid passer (2:1 AST:TO) quicker bigs switch onto him
• Great physical tools at the guard spot • Not an explosive in game athlete
• Good touch on runners, can get that shot • Low volume shooter
off whenever he wants • Not necessarily a primary facilitator
• Very comfortable shooting from three, • Needs to add strength and fill out frame
can shoot over guards • Smaller guards get downhill on him
• Can guard one through three • Crowds ball at times instead of using
• Hustles on defense length

NBA Comparison: Dejounte Murray, Shaun Livingston


 Abdoulaye N’Doye is a versatile secondary playmaker. Considering he just signed a
contract; he could be a draft and stash candidate for a year or could be bought out of
his contract. N’Doye projects as a good end of rotation piece due to his excellent
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length and size. He may struggle to create his own shot at some level. His initial
impact will most likely be on the defensive end.

Choice #3
Yam Madar 19 yrs old, G, Hapoel Tel Aviv (BSL)
6’3 180lbs
2019-20 (32 games): 10.6 PPG; 24 RPG; 3.4 APG; 2.6 TO, 1.0
STL; 44.4% FG; 26.7% 3FG

Yam Madar improved his draft stock toward the end of


the BSL season. He is a defense first guard with a great
motor. He defends well in the pick and roll as well as
point of attack actions. Most of his offense comes from
5-20 feet. He has potential to be a three-point shooter
but still has a way to go.
Strengths Weaknesses
• FT% points toward progression with • Undersized off-ball guard
shooting (81.2%) • Decision making is a minus, not a
• Creates space in the midrange dynamic facilitator
• Decent touch on floater • Statistically poor three-point shooter
• Invites contact (26.7%)
• Can pick up 94ft on defense • Below average athleticism, plays
• Fights hard through screens primarily below the rim
• Exceptional motor • Questions about how he would do with
increased volume

NBA Comparison: Patrick Beverly, Ish Smith


 Yam Madar is an unknown commodity with solid potential. He is a plus on defense
immediately due to the effort he gives on that end of the floor. He would fit well in
DHO actions as he can get downhill without isolating on the ball. His shooting still
needs work, but he is young. He still has time to add that to his repertoire.
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Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Trent Forrest, 22 years old, 6’4, Florida State
2. Nick Richards, 22 years old, 6’11, Kentucky
3. Myles Powell, 23 years old, 6’2, Seton Hall

Celtics Free Agents


I. Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
1. Brad Wanamaker $1,820,564
II. Player Option
1. Gordon Hayward $34,187,085
2. Enes Kanter $5,005,350
III. Team Option
1. Semi Ojeleye $1,752,950
IV. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Daniel Theis $5,000,000
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($25,689,702)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $11,558,298

Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to keep:
1. Brad Wanamaker ($3,000,000-$6,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 78.3%]
Brad Wanamaker is another player the Celtics should look to hold onto. The 31-year-
old backup point guard provides the Celtics with a steady ball handler for their bench
unit and a close to automatic free shooter, where he led the league with a 92.7% free
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throw percentage. Wanamaker is not great on either side of the ball but does most
things at a competent level, and that is something the Celtics should value as a
contending team. The Celtics could either choose to retain Wanamaker through bird
rights or by giving him the team’s taxpayer mid-level exception.
2. Gordon Hayward (Player Option $34,187,085)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 0.1%]
Gordon Hayward will be accepting this player option. Hayward had a bounce back
season in 2019-20, posting shooting splits of 50.0/38.3/85.5 while being the 4th option
for most of the season. Offensively, Hayward was as efficient as ever, posting a career
high 56.1% effective field goal percentage and showed the playmaking ability he
showcased in Utah for many years. Hayward is a reliable secondary ball handler that
can get his own shot and is still a very productive player. On defense, Hayward is
underrated and proved his worth again, posting +2.2 defensive win shares on a very
good Celtics defense. Hayward will be back for Boston next year.
3. Enes Kanter (Player Option $5,005,350)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 84.6%]
Enes Kanter is projected to opt into this $5,005,350 option. The Turkish center has
proven to be an offensive rebounding machine throughout his career and can go into
almost any game and get points in the block. However, this stellar low post play has
been devalued in the league over the course of his career and now he is viewed as a net
negative asset due to his shortcomings on the defensive side of the floor. In 2019-20
though, Kanter posted a respectable +1.0 defensive RAPTOR rating. If Kanter can
continue to be put in position to succeed on defense he is a playable piece of the
Celtics going forward.
4. Daniel Theis (Non-Guaranteed $5,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 83.2%]
Daniel Theis took a leap this last season and will undoubtedly have his $5,000,000
2020-21 figure guaranteed for this upcoming season. Theis showed the ability to score
on offense on lobs, some catch and shoot and even the ability to drive past opposing
big men on his way to the hoop for an easy layup. Defensively, Theis was excellent
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against pick and rolls and post a +2.0 defensive RAPTOR rating for the Celtics during
the regular season. In the playoffs though, this number dipped to +1.6 and the
incessant switches he was put through are a brute of the blame. Look for Theis to
expand his outside shot this next year as he is shown to have good form and touch
from outside of the arc.
5. Semi Ojeleye (Team Option $1,752,950)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 1.6%]
Semi Ojeleye has proved himself to be a versatile defender and floor spacer.
Offensively, Ojeleye turned in the best season of his career, posting career highs in
effective field goal percentage and shooting 46.2% on attempts from the corner three.
Ojeleye’s frame has allowed him to be a plus screener in the Boston offense and if he
continues to develop his shot, he could be a reliable pick and popper. At 240 pounds,
Ojeleye can bump with most big men on the block, but his feet are what allows him to
guard on the perimeter.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Maurice Harkless 6’7 220lbs 27 years old, SF, Current Salary: $11,011,234
Projected Annual Salary: Mid-Level Exception
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 40.9%
Maurice Harkless is a defensive minded wing. On offense, he was a negative on the perimeter.
He was consistently left open and ruined court spacing in LA and in NY. He is extremely
inconsistent as a shooter with two seasons shooting over 38% from three and four seasons
shooting under 30% from three. He has consistently struggled to shoot with volume, as he has
never even attempted 200 shots from deep. He is a good slasher, shooting 67.7% around the rim
on 47% of his attempts, but that alone does not outweigh his lack of value on the perimeter. He is
a legitimate defensive wing that plays with intensity. Some of that intensity is shown by his
ability to recover loose balls. He recovered 86% of loose ball opportunities (91st percentile
among wings). Harkless is a consistent defensive wing with a high variance offensive game. This
is more of a boom or bust signing that could rely on his perimeter shooting.
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Option #2:
Harry Giles 6’10 240 22 years old, PF/C, Current Salary: $2,578,800
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 64.9%
With only two years in the league, we have only seen a small sample size of what Harry Giles
has to offer at the professional level. Coming out of high school as the #1 recruit in the class of
2016, Giles was viewed as a highly talented power forward. After tearing his ACL for the second
time in his life, Giles missed most of his collegiate time at Duke. Although he declared after not
playing, he was still viewed with the potential of his former #1 status. Things never really
panned out Sacramento with the two sides never fully meshing. Giles averaged just 14 minutes
per game, 7.0 PPG, and 4.0 RPG. Although his production does not seem like much, he is still 21
years old with plenty of upside.

Option #3:
Nerlens Noel 6’10 220 26 years old, C/PF, Current Salary: $2,028,594
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000-$10,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 48.4%
Noel is a rim running big who provides good rim protection. His offensive game is extremely
limited, this past season 61% of his field goals came from 0-3ft from the hoop. He relies on
others to create for him, lob opportunities, pick n’ rolls to the rim, and running the floor. This
season marked his career best VORP of 1.5 & his career best win shares of 5.

Option #4:
Trey Burke 6’0 185lbs 27 years old, PG, Current Salary: $229,220
Projected Annual Salary: Mid-Level Exception
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 45.2%
Trey Burke was a solid pickup for Dallas as a replacement player for the NBA bubble. In low
volume, he operated as a secondary creator and scorer. He shot 42.7% from three on 75 attempts
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this year. That jumped to 50% off the dribble, but on much lower volume. Burke is a legitimate
isolation scorer. He drew a foul on 30% of his isolation shot attempts, good for the 94 percentile
th

amongst guards. He is a solid passer as well with a 3.5:1.0 AST:TO ratio. His turnover rate has
been below 10% every year since 2016-17. He has legitimate offensive value as a spark plug
creator off the bench when high usage guards need a break. Burke may even have starter
potential in spot games as he cracked the starting lineup for half of Dallas’ playoff games. He
can be counted on for double digits points when given a legitimate role. Trey Burke fits into a
increasingly valuable archetype as a secondary ball handler and a point of attack defender.
Playoff teams are beginning to realize that off the dribble shooting is an extremely valuable skill,
and Burke can provide that at a low price point. Burke could prove to be the perfect replacement
if Dinwiddie is traded.

Option #5:
Thon Maker 7’0 220lbs 23 years old, C/PF, Current Salary: $3,569,643
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 38%
Thon Maker came into the league as a huge name on social media due to his length and assumed
athleticism. Unfortunately, he has not met those expectations as he only played 12 minutes per
game this past season with the Detroit Pistons, but he still shows some potential. He shot 34%
from three on low volume. 90% of his threes were from above the break, adding more value as
those are harder to make threes than from the corners. His other real skills on offense are playing
the roll man in the pick and roll and playing in the post. In the post, Maker does a good job of
pinning defender on his top side and getting a pass over the top right to the rim. He is somewhat
of a black hole in the paint, so this is also a drawback. He is also good at attacking the glass on
the offensive end, specifically for put back dunks and tip ins. Maker averaged 1.4 put backs per
75 possessions. Defensively, he goes for every block as he contests 48% of rim attempts when he
was on the floor. His defense is still somewhat suspect as most of his minutes came in garbage
time. Maker is a target for his potential, not for instant on court impact.
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Trade Scenarios
1. Phoenix Suns
Suns Receiving: Gordon Hayward, 2020 30th overall pick
Celtics Receiving: Ricky Rubio, Kelly Oubre
For the Boston Celtics, this deal allows them to retain depth while upgrading at the backup point
guard spot. Kelly Oubre brings a scorer mentality to the Boston bench unit. Something to look
for with Oubre is his deficiencies from the corner three, only shooting 33.3% last season with the
Phoenix Suns. Ricky Rubio is a starting caliber point guard and would add great value as a
backup in Boston. His ability to facilitate is his calling card, and in Boston, he would flourish
setting up Tatum, Brown, Walker and Theis for easy looks. For Phoenix, they get the best player
in this deal and a pick with the 30th overall selection. Gordon Hayward bounced back in a big
way last season, posting near career highs in efficiency on offense and posting +2.2 win shares
on defense. Hayward’s playmaking is underrated, and he would act as a secondary playmaker,
with Devin Booker moving back to the point guard spot with the departure of Ricky Rubio.

2. Sacramento Kings
Kings Receiving: Gordon Hayward, 2020 1st Round Picks (26th &
30th overall)
Celtics Receiving: Buddy Hield & Richaun Holmes
This deal is a bit different but accomplishes some of the same goals for Boston. With the
acquisition of Buddy Hield they add one of the league’s most deadly three-point shooters and
another guy who can get his own shot. Richaun Holmes adds to Boston’s big man rotation and
adds a bit more of a vertical lob threat than Theis has in recent years. The luxury for Boston to be
able to pick and choose between seven guys to close any given game is something no other team
in the NBA can say. For Sacramento, this deal gives them newfound flexibility on the financial
sheets and some added draft capital for this year’s draft. Gordon Hayward fits much better into
the King’s offense than he does with the current Celtics offense and figures to slide into the
starting small forward spot, moving Harrison Barnes back down to the four.
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3. Brooklyn Nets
Nets Receiving: Enes Kanter, 2020 1st Round Picks (14th & 30th
overall)
Celtics Receiving: Jarrett Allen
This trade upgrades the Boston Celtics big man rotation vastly. Jarrett Allen is an elite rim
protector and has shown good feet in defensive pick and roll switches. Miami Heat put Daniel
Theis in countless actions off movement, causing Boston to relegate him to the bench in favor of
rookie Grant Williams. Allen would not need to be benched in these situations as his length
allows him the ability to stick with smaller players in switches. On offense, Allen is a good rim
runner, and he should fit well with Kemba Walker’s pick and roll actions. For Brooklyn, this
deal gets them two first round selections, where they could look to infuse their veteran heavy
roster with youth or flip the picks for established talent that will not be seeking an $80 million
extension. This deal makes sense for Brooklyn because they will most likely not be able to retain
Allen once he hits restricted free agency.
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BROOKLYN NETS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
VII. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 18
b. Round 2: Pick 55
VIII. Team Needs
a. Instant Impact Versatility
i. Player who can be a quality rotation man, knock down spot up
threes, defend multiple positions. It is plus if they can create
their own shot.
b. Floor Spacer
i. Wing who can provide shooting gravity and stretch the floor for
Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. Joe Harris may be priced out in
free agency and money may be sparce so this may be from a
draft pick.
IX. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Nets Free Agency
VII. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
VIII. Free Agent Targets
IX. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 19
Choice #1
Aaron Nesmith 21 yrs old, SG, Vanderbilt
6’6 215lbs; 6’11 Wingspan
2019-20 (14 games): 23.0 PPG; 4.9 RPG; 0.9 APG; 1.4
STL; 1.7 TO; 51.2% FG; 52.2% 3FG

Aaron Nesmith is a floor spacing wing. During


his sophomore year, he was an elite shooter
from behind the three-point line. He is limited in
other parts of his offensive game such as his
playmaking. Defensively, he uses his wingspan
well and works well off the ball. Injury concerns
will most likely not carry forward as there is
little risk for reinjury with a stress fracture.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Floor spacing and shooting • Limited as an on-ball scorer
• Shoots well off of motion, low volume • Court awareness, basic passing reads
• Squares up well to the rim • Lack of spatial awareness
• Decent shot selection, uses side step well • Does not move well laterally
• Solid packline defender off-ball • Will get attacked in POA
• Makes good rotations, can take charges • Extremely flat footed
• Solid frame for a wing, length and size • Poor defender in PNR
NBA Comparison: Cameron Johnson, Buddy Hield
 Aaron Nesmith is a lottery prospect because of his three-point shooting. His volume
and efficiency was literally off the charts. A full season at this level would have
moved him up draft boards, but due to a stress fracture he was not around for SEC
play. He fits well into the archetype of a 3&D wing, especially if he can improve his
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hips and footwork. He would be a good fit with a contender as he can step in and
space the floor.

Choice #2
Grant Riller 24 yrs old, G, College of
Charleston
6’3 190lbs
2019-20 (31 games): 21.9 PPG; 5.1 RPG; 3.9 APG; 1.6
STL; 3.1 TO; 49.9% FG; 36.2% 3FG

Grant Riller is on of the top scorers in this draft


class. He is a three-level scorer who can get
buckets at will. There are few weaknesses with his
offensive game. Questions come into play with his
age and his defensive capabilities.
Strengths Weaknesses
• One of the best scorers in this class • 24 years old, not much room for
• Elite finisher around the rim (70.6% FG%) improvement
• Played up to his competition • Cannot always hit the big when looking to
• Great balance of volume and efficiency on pass in PNR
the offensive end • Low volume shooting off the ball
• Draws fouls at a high rate • Negative on the defensive end of the floor
• Extremely quick laterally • Will struggle to guard PNR
• May struggle to fit into a low usage role
NBA Comparison: Lou Williams, Seth Curry, Jeremy Lamb
 Grant Riller can fit in as the lead guard off the bench immediately. He is an elite
scorer that must be a defensive focal point. His footwork is elite and allows him to get
off whatever shot he wants. He may struggle to accept a low usage role if he goes to a
playoff contender. He can be a good defender in specific possessions but is rather
inconsistent with his defensive motor and effort.
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Choice #3
Desmond Bane 22 yrs old, G/F, TCU
6’6 215lbs; 6’9 ½ Wingspan
2019-20: 16.6 PPG; 6.3 RPG; 3.9 APG; 1.5 STL; 2.3 TO;
45.2% FG; 44.2% 3FG

Desmond Bane is a 3&D two guard with some


potential as a spot playmaker. He is an extremely
intelligent player off the ball that knows how to use
screens to create advantage situations. On defense,
he rotates well to blow up screening actions. His
frame is also a plus on this end of the floor.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Top tier shooter in this draft class • Negative wingspan
• Comfortable shooting off dribble or • Not much room to grow considering
catch age
• Underrated passer for a wing • Below average first step
• Solid, creative layup package around • Settles for long twos when attacking
the rim off the dribble
• Charge taker on defense • Lackluster ball handling
• Extremely intelligent when navigating • Lacks lateral athleticism, mainly
screens on off agility and speed
NBA Comparison: Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart
 Desmond Bane fits in immediately as a floor spacer. His offensive potential is based
upon his ability to create space with screening actions and create for others in limited
situations. On defense, his negative wingspan and lack of foot speed will hurt him,
but his strength and IQ should make up for it in some capacity. He may have some
potential to guard some undersized bigs due to his frame.

Round 2 Pick 55
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Choice #1
Sam Merrill 24 yrs old, G, Utah State
6’5 205lbs; N/A Wingspan
2019-20 (32 games): 19.7 PPG; 4.1 RPG; 3.9 APG;
0.9 STL; 46.1% FG; 41.0% 3FG

Sam Merrill is coming into the league as a


floor spacer, both off the catch and off the
dribble. He can facilitate when necessary.
His ceiling limiters come from his lack of
athleticism, both vertically and laterally, and
his age.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Elite shooter from behind the three-point • Forced to take tough shots due to limited
line (319 career made threes) space creation
• Scores well off the dribble, quick release • Reliant on defense giving things up to
• Will shoot if he sees any daylight make plays
• Willing facilitator • Marginal athlete, vertically and laterally
• Reads the floor very well when cutting • Age is a concern
and moving off the ball • Will struggle to defend POA
• Pick and roll potential in small volume • Below average at making rotations and
fighting through screens

NBA Comparison: Seth Curry, Patty Mills


 Sam Merrill comes into the league as a finished product. His role will be as a floor
spacer. That is without question, as he is a flamethrower from behind the three-point
line. He has potential to be the ballhandler in spot pick and roll actions depending on
his defender. He struggles as a defender though as he will have to be hidden off the
ball. He is rather poor at making defensive rotations and getting through screening
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actions. His place in the league will depend on how valuable his shooting is compared
to his defensive negatives.

Choice #2
Mamadi Diakite 23 yrs old, PF, Virginia
6’9 224lbs; 7’3 ½” Wingspan
2019-20 (30 games): 13.7 PPG; 6.8 RPG; 0.6 APG;
1.3 BLK; 47.8% FG; 36.4% 3FG

Mamadi Diakite should be put into both pick


and pop and spot up situations in the NBA.
He has shown improvements in shooting. He
is a high IQ team defender that can defend
the four and five. He does a good job of
contesting shots.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Improved shooting, good form, and soft • Struggles as a passer (1:3 AST:TO)
touch • Poor ball handler, cannot create his own
• Active second jumper, attacks the shot off the dribble
offensive glass • Good defender at multiple facets, not
• Very simplistic offensive game great in one specific area
• Quick hips and good defensive footwork • Needs to continue to add strength
• Good technique in the post • Not confident in his ability to consistently
• Uses length well on closeouts switch the PNR
NBA Comparison: Ersan Illyasova, Meyers Leonard, Marreese Speights
 Diakite’s NBA role will be as a stretch five. He needs to offer consistent three point
shooting off the catch, as well as the ability to play the big in the pick and roll/pop.
He fits in well to a low usage spacing role. Defensively, he shows some versatility,
but struggles to be excellent in any specific area. His length is a huge plus on this end
of the floor.
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Choice #3
Jalen Harris 22 yrs old, PG, Nevada
6’5 195lbs
2019-20 (30 games): 21.7 PPG; 6.5 RPG; 2.9 APG; 1.1
STL; 44.6% FG; 36.2% 3FG

Jalen Harris fits into the late second round as a


sparkplug off the bench. He excels on the
offensive end of the floor as a three-level scorer
and creator for others out of the pick and roll. He
is a mixed bag on defense.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Solid touch around the rim • Inconsistent shooter off the catch, should
• Makes the simple read in the PNR be used primarily on the ball
• Top level scorer in isolation and PNR • Questionable reads at times in PNR
• Shows flashes of team defense rotations • Struggles guarding POA
and tags • Inconsistent on defense, even lazy at
• Shows intelligence on defense when times when guarding PNR
chasing shooters off of screening actions • Gets beat downhill frequently
• Decent change of speed, acceleration
NBA Comparison: Trey Burke, Austin Rivers
 Jalen Harris has value as a creator in bench rotations. His scoring is by far his top
skill as he can score from three, midrange, and the paint. His age is an issue as there
is not much room to develop, but he is a finished project that can step into an NBA
rotation. He would fit in well with a contender who needs cheap rotation players.

Undrafted Free Agents Targets


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Potential Undrafted:
1. Lamar Stevens, 23 years old, 6’8, Penn State
2. Tres Tinkle, 24 years old, 6’7, Oregon State
3. Rayshaun Hammonds, 21 years old, 6’9, Georgia

Nets Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Joe Harris $7,666,667
2. Wilson Chandler $1,620,564
3. Tyler Johnson $183,115
4. Justin Anderson (Bubble)
5. Jamal Crawford (Bubble)
6. Donta Hall (Bubble)
II. Team Option
1. Garrett Temple $5,005,350
III. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot $1,824,003
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds):
($24,761,668)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): ($19,825,401)
Who stays, Who goes
▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Garrett Temple (Decline Team Option $5,005,350)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 55.4%]:
A 34-year-old who is declining athletically and shooting well below the league avg
from the 3pt line is not worth $5 million. Even though Temple is a negative shooter,
opponents respect him as his shooting gravity is in the 69th percentile amongst
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shooting guards. Even though he struggled to get downhill during the season, he was
much improved during the bubble. He was an average playmaker, creating 17 potential
assists per 100 possessions, in the 56th percentile for shooting guards. His value stems
from his gritty perimeter defense. He recovered 85% of loose balls, in the 97th
percentile amongst shooting guards. Brooklyn will find themselves struggling to fill
roster spots with its extremely limited cap space. However, this is not an excuse to
settle for less talent. This team can find serviceable veterans that are willing to come in
and take a pay cut in order to compete for a championship.
2. Jamal Crawford (Projected: Veteran Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 14.6%]
Jamal Crawford will most likely either be retiring or seeking a new minimum contract
somewhere else. Considering he could not stay healthy even for the bubble, he should
not be a target to resign. He value has dropped off a cliff since the 2014 season. There
is an extremely small chance that he even adds value on a minimum contract.

3. Justin Anderson (Projected Minimum)


[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 51.7%]:
Justin Anderson came into the league as a hard nose, gritty defender with an NBA
ready frame, but has not developed any offensive game or perimeter shooting
whatsoever. The signing of Anderson prior to the bubble was to the fill the defensive
void left when Wilson Chandler opted out of the bubble. Justin Anderson will not
progress into a rotation player at this point in his career, therefore Brooklyn should
clear up a roster spot here and pursue talent elsewhere.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Joe Harris (Projected- $15,000,000-$20,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 18.4%]:
Joe Harris is an asset strictly because of his ability to shoot the ball. He moves
extremely well without the ball, being near the top of the league in every off-ball
movement metric. Teams must respect him because of his extremely high shooting
percentages. He shot 50.8% on corner threes and 43.5% on catch and shoot, so teams
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must focus on forcing him off of the line. Within Brooklyn’s offense, Kyrie Irving and
Kevin Durant will collapse the defense to create space for shooters. Due to this, he has
shown improvement as a finisher around the rim, hitting 65% of his attempts around
the rim. Harris is a high IQ player that plays strictly within his role on the offensive
end of the floor. He opens up the floor to run more creative ATOs as well as unique
transition sets. Defensively, Harris is a negative. He struggles to guard both on the
perimeter and on the interior. He typically guards the worst wing on the floor, and still
struggles against them. Teams do not appear to seek him out in switches. Harris
provides enough value on offense to negate his defensive woes. With all that said,
Brooklyn would most likely be above the hard tax line of $145.47 million if they
brought him back. However, they do not have anyone who can fill the void of Joe
Harris departure, nor do they have the money to go out and replace him. Unless
Brooklyn thinks they can identify a shooting talent to the likes of Joe Harris with one
of your draft picks, Harris has to be brought back no matter the price.
2. Tyler Johnson (Projected: Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 81.1%]
Johnson was picked up by Brooklyn prior to entering the bubble to fill the place of the
players who opted out. In his 12 total games with Brooklyn (8 in the regular season &
4 in the playoffs) he shot 39% from 3pt & averaged nearly 13 PPG. These number are
not jumping off the page, but with the idea that Brooklyn offered Johnson a $50
million dollar offer sheet to try to pull him away from Miami in 2017, and then gave
him an opportunity to prove himself in the bubble. They really like Johnson & may
keep him around while they figure out the Spencer Dinwiddie situation dependent of a
contract available in their range.
3. Wilson Chandler (Projected: Veteran Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 22.5%]
Chandler is a versatile forward that can defend multiple position, stretch the floor and
is one of those seasoned veterans that are essential contributors to a championship
team. His defensive ability and versatility are where his value lies. If he can find a way
to be an average 3pt shooter next season he should be getting 15-20 minutes per game.
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4. Donta Hall (Projected: Two-Way/ Minimum)


[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 49.2%]
Nets front office found a modern small ball center in Hall. At 6’9 229, he brings rim
running, vertical spacing, rim protection, and energy rebounding. He did not get much
run at the NBA level, only appearing in 5 games for the Nets. However, his per 36 min
stats were impressive, posting a near double-double, and 2 blocks. The Nets should
sign Hall to a two-way contract; however, there is a possibility that he brought back on
an unguaranteed multiyear deal.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Jeff Green 6’8 235lbs 34 years old, SF/PF, Current Salary: $439,475
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 69.6%
Jeff Green is a solid veteran presence who provides excellent value for a minimum contract He
has shown some streaky shooting in the past, but really took control in their bubble playoff run.
He shot 42.6% from three on 54 attempts. Green has consistently shown an ability to step up in
the playoffs throughout his career (51.9% conversion on corner threes in the playoffs vs 38.5%
conversion rate during the regular season, an increase of +13.4%). Green is also good at moving
and cutting off the ball, being in the 90 percentile in Bball Index’s stats regarding off-ball cuts.
th

On the defensive side of the ball, Green was a force in the playoffs. When guarding isolations, he
gave up 0.73 PPP on a FG% of 36% according to Stats.NBA.

Option #2:
Marco Belinelli 6’5 220lbs 34 years old, SF/SG, Current Salary: $5,846,154
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 85.6%
Marco Belinelli is a perimeter oriented off ball wing. 81.9% of his shots came from beyond 16
feet. He operates off the catch, with almost 90% of his shots being assisted. He moves well of the
ball and is used in a lot of screening actions. Outside of his ability to shoot off the dribble, there
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is not much there offensively. He knows his role as a strict shooter and not a playmaker as he had
a TO% of 5.3%. On defense, he is a negative. He struggles to create turnovers, averaging 0.2
steals and blocks combined per game. He gives some good effort, but just does not possess the
athleticism to be a plus on this end of the floor. Belinelli had a great age 31 season just two years
ago with the Philadelphia 76ers. He has regressed from that some during his second stint in San
Antonio, but still projects as a decent role player who will fight for an end of rotation spot.

Option #3:
Trey Burke 6’0 185lbs 27 years old, PG, Current Salary: $229,220
Projected Annual Salary: Mid-Level Exception
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 45.2%
Trey Burke was a solid pickup for Dallas as a replacement player for the NBA bubble. In low
volume, he operated as a secondary creator and scorer. He shot 42.7% from three on 75 attempts
this year. That jumped to 50% off the dribble, but on much lower volume. Burke is a legitimate
isolation scorer. He drew a foul on 30% of his isolation shot attempts, good for the 94 percentile
th

amongst guards. He is a solid passer as well with a 3.5:1.0 AST:TO ratio. His turnover rate has
been below 10% every year since 2016-17. He has legitimate offensive value as a spark plug
creator off the bench when high usage guards need a break. Burke may even have starter
potential in spot games as he cracked the starting lineup for half of Dallas’ playoff games. He
can be counted on for double digits points when given a legitimate role. Trey Burke fits into a
increasingly valuable archetype as a secondary ball handler and a point of attack defender.
Playoff teams are beginning to realize that off the dribble shooting is an extremely valuable skill,
and Burke can provide that at a low price point. Burke could prove to be the perfect replacement
if Dinwiddie is traded.

Option #4:

Rajon Rondo 6’1 185lbs, 34 years old, C, Current Salary: $2,564,753


Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$5,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 45.6%
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Rajon Rondo will be a coveted free agent after being a value piece of a Los Angeles Lakers
roster that went on to win the NBA title. He stepped his game up in the playoffs, doubling his
win shares per 48 minutes from 0.068 to 0.144. On offense, he showed that he is still a capable
three-point shooter. His percentages from three, both off the dribble (29.6%, 37th percentile
amongst point guards) and off the catch (35.2%, 25th percentile amongst guards) were both
below average. Rondo took the most threes per 36 minutes of his career this past season (4.6
attempts), so that added volume helps negate the lower percentage. He is a creative finisher
around the rim with solid body control that gets downhill with his first step and ability to make
defenders ride his hip. 95% of his made shots at the rim were unassisted. Most of his offensive
value comes from is his facilitating. Even at 34 years old, he is still one of the best passers in the
league because of his high IQ and skill at making difficult passes. He does a great job of working
within the offense and making sure his passes lead to high efficiency shots. He averaged 8.4
passes per 75 possessions that led to made threes, rim attempts, or free throws. He has regressed
some as a defender, as he is a step slower and still deals with high variance in his motor. He still
has value even for name recognition as a defender as he is not typically targeted in isolations. He
provides versatility on this end of the floor as well as he spent at least 18% of his defensive
possessions guarding each of the guard spots and the small forward. Rondo will be a target for
contenders as they look to add depth to their point guard rotations.

Option #5:
Dwayne Bacon 6’6 220lbs 25 years old, SG, Current Salary: $1,618,520
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 67.1%
Dwayne Bacon is a project player that could eventually add value at the end of a rotation.
Offensively his role has been to score in isolation in spot minutes. He is extremely poor at this
aspect, with an eFG% of 38.5% and TO% of 13%, good for the 19th and 15th percentile
respectively. He would benefit from playing off a ball-dominant playmaker. He is a decent three-
point shooter off the catch and finishes well around the rim. His athleticism helps him get
whatever shot he wants around the rim and portrays solid touch on his floater. He is not a
complete liability as a playmaker, showing the skills necessary when looking for the pass.
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Defensively, he is an above average perimeter player. He does a decent job at guarding wings at
the point of attack. When locked in, he closes out well and forces the action. A lot of concern
about Bacon stems from his off the court activity and his mentality. He could be an average 3&D
player off the bench if he stays locked in.

Trade Scenarios
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Cavaliers Receiving: Spencer Dinwiddie, Garrett Temple,
Taurean Prince, Dzanan Musa, 2020 Round 2 Pick
Nets Receiving: Kevin Love, Jordan Bell
The addition of Kevin Love pushes Brooklyn over the top. The fit is perfect for Love and
Brooklyn. Brooklyn need bigs who can stretch the floor, and Love (at 32 years old) is looking to
compete for championships. In addition, Spencer Dinwiddie & Kyrie Irving do not suit each
other games very well. Dinwiddie is the odd man out here. With that said Cleveland is getting
good return and cap relief in this trade. This trade expedites Cleveland’s rebuild by one year and
gives them two players entering their prime in Taurean Prince and Dinwiddie, who they could
potentially flip with tons of opportunity to showcase their talent in Cleveland.
2. San Antonio Spurs
Spurs Receiving: Spencer Dinwiddie, Taurean Prince, 2023
1st Round Top 5 Protected
Nets Receiving: LaMarcus Aldridge
LaMarcus Aldridge makes Brooklyn an instant contender for the title, even with Kevin Durant
coming back from his Achilles tear. He adds value as an interior scorer that can initiate offense
for himself. He averaged 6.8 isolation possessions per 75 offensive possessions, ranking in the
94th percentile amongst bigs. Defensively, he can handle his own and allow Durant to be hidden
off the ball. He also opens the door for smaller lineups in situations where DeAndre Jordan and
Jarrett Allen are unplayable. San Antonio receives a rotation caliber wing in Taurean Prince.
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Spencer Dinwiddie is a flippable asset to a contending team. The first-round pick could be
viewed as a major asset considering the Brooklyn Nets have an aging roster with injury concerns.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder receiving: Taurean Prince, Nicolas Claxton
Nets Receiving: Dennis Schroder
Dennis Schroder provides Brooklyn with a complementary guard who provides instant offense
and steady decision making. He shot 41.4% on catch and shoot threes, ranking in the 82nd
percentile amongst guards. Schroder would most likely serve as the sixth man on this Brooklyn
roster and allow them to remain lethal offensively with Kyrie Irving on the bench. Oklahoma
City would acquire a solid young wing in Taurean Prince, a potential filled project in Nicolas
Claxton, and a future second round draft pick in return for Schroder, who is not a part of
Oklahoma City’s long-term plans with the need to develop Gilgeous-Alexander into a primary
guard. Overall, Schroder provides no real value to Oklahoma City’s future with him being on a
one-year contract however, this does not mean Oklahoma City is blind to Schroder’s value in the
open market.
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CHARLOTTE HORNETS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
X. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 3
b. Round 2: Picks 32, 56
XI. Team Needs
a. Franchise Big
i. The Hornets ranked dead last in defensive rebound percentage,
with a top 3 pick in this year’s draft they need to fill a glaring
void down low and cannot afford to rely on P.J. Washington’s
development.
b. Wing/Versatile Defender
i. The Hornets ranked 25th in defensive rating this past season,
and 26th in steals per game. It is clear they need a young player
that can come in and defend, to complement their good young
scoring core.
XII. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Hornets Free Agency
X. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XI. Free Agent Targets
XII. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 3
Choice #1
James Wiseman 19 years old, PF/C, Memphis
7’1 240lbs; 7’6” Wingspan
2019-20 (3 games): 19.7 PPG; 10.7 RPG; 0.3 APG; 0.3
STL; 3.0 BLK; 76.9% FG; 0.0% 3FG

James Wiseman is extraordinary athlete. His


ability to run the floor at 7’1 puts him in rare
company. There are a ton of question marks
around his feel. Wiseman has one of the highest
floors in this draft due to his size and ability to
finish around the rim.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Getting out on the break/ Rim-Running • Poor footwork, slow hips
• Rim protection • Drop big in PNR
• Offensive glass cleaner • Defensive awareness
• Strong roll man • Shot selection
• Vertical lob spacer • Undisciplined on defensive end
• Utilizes big frame well • Hands/quickness
• Good motor, runs the floor well in • Post passing
transition
NBA Comparison: Andre Drummond, Hassan Whiteside
 Wiseman has a lot of room for growth, starting with his shooting. If he can develop a
consistent jump shot & develop a better awareness of the game, he should develop
into an all-star talent. He will need to adjust to the NBA’s frequent use of the pick
and roll defensively, and the leagues overall spacing. Fit will play a large role in him
getting an opportunity to develop & showcase his offensive skillset.
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Choice #2
Obi Toppin 22 yrs old, F, Dayton
6’9 230lbs; 7’2 Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 20.0 PPG; 7.5 RPG;
2.2 APG; 1.2 STL; 1.2 BLK; 63.3% FG;
39.0% 3FG

Obi Toppin is coming of a Wooden


Award level season. He is an
extraordinary vertical athlete with
107 dunks. His strength is his scoring
and versatility on offense. Questions
come in regarding his defense and his
age.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Strong finisher at the rim • Older prospect due to year in prep school
• Potential to stretch the floor with • Poor defender
shooting • Struggles to move laterally, gets caught
• Runs the floor well in transition off balance
• Quick first step • Gets beat in POA frequently
• NBA ready frame • May struggle in the post on both ends of
• Can immediately step in as a starter the floor due to high center of gravity
NBA Comparison: John Collins, Derrick Williams
 Obi Toppin is an immediate front runner for rookie of the year. He is an elite vertical
and straight-line athlete. Scoring will be easy for him at the NBA level. He is going to
face serious issues down the road on defense especially guarding the pick and roll. He
is not good enough to hedge or drop screening actions. He struggles to move laterally
although he is a great athlete. His high center of gravity and opportunistic motor must
be part of the problem.
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Choice #3
Onyeka Okongwu 19 yrs old, F, USC
6’9 245lbs; 7’1” Wingspan
2019-20 (28 Games): 16.2 PPG; 8.6 RPG; 1.1 APG;
2.7 BLK; 2.0 TO; 61.6% FG; 25.0% 3FG

Onyeka Okongwu is an elite defensive force.


He was one of the best shot blockers in the
NCAA. On offense, he is a classic PNR big
man. He is extremely athletic, both vertically
and laterally. His ceiling comes from the
potential for him to add to his scoring
repertoire.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Explosive vertical leaper • Raw offensively
• Great hands, balance, and footwork • Undersize at 6’9”
• Nice touch around the rim • Struggles with turnovers at times
• Good, strong screener • Deals with foul trouble, susceptible to
• Underrated passer, makes good reads charges on offense
• Excellent shot blocker, with good • Shooting is not reliable past 10 feet
timing, and does not gamble • Struggles to guard the post against
• Can switch in pick and roll stronger players
NBA Comparison: Derrick Favors, Tristan Thompson
 Onyeka Okongwu will immediately be able to step into a starting lineup at the five. He
has one of the highest floors in this draft class, but there are real concerns about how
much better he can get, specifically on offense. Expanding his offensive range will be the
first step. Defensively, he has a great foundation to build upon.
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ROUND 2 PICK 32
Choice #1
Mason Jones 22 yrs old, G, Arkansas
6’5 200lbs
2019-20 (31 games): 22.0 PPG; 5.5 RPG; 3.4 APG; 1.6
STL; 3.2 TO; 45.3% FG; 35.1% 3FG

Mason Jones played juco ball before transferring


to Arkansas. He is a three-level scorer that can
generate buckets at will. He can make tough
shots off the dribble. He has potential to be a
PNR initiator. On defense, he is at his best when
guarding off the ball. He is limited by his
athleticism and age.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Three-level scorer • Limited athleticism
• Draws fouls at an extremely high rate • Age limits his ceiling
(0.668 FTr) • Forces turnovers, may improve with
• Uses his body well when attacking the rim smaller offensive role
• Creates space with sidestep and triple • Does not add value in rotations to the rim
threat moves • Quiet on defense
• Reads passing lanes well on defense •
• Active defender on the ball
NBA Comparison: Fred VanVleet, Lou Williams
 Mason Jones is an immediate impact player as a scoring guard off the bench. He
operates as an on-ball scorer that can shoot off the dribble from deep and attack the
rim. He will be able to rely on his ability to draw fouls when he gets to the next level.
On defense, the goal is for him to be average. He will struggle to guard pick and roll
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actions as well as point of attack, while having the foundational off-ball principles
down.

Choice #2
Tyler Bey 21 yrs old, F, Colorado
6’7 218lbs
2019-20 (31 games): 13.8 PPG; 9.0 RPG; 1.5 APG;
1.2 BLK; 53.0% FG; 41.9% 3FG

Tyler Bey is an elite athlete with terrific


instincts and motor and has a very versatile
offensive and defensive skillset. Much of his
offensive game will be others creating for him
whether its lobs or spot up jumpers. He should
be able to defend 2-4 in the NBA.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Great motor • Undersized paint oriented
• NBA ready frame offensive player
• Power finisher • Offensive game does not fit in
• Strong perimeter defender in POA NBA, turns down wide open
• Quick lateral athlete, has real vertical threes
bounce • Struggles to create his own shot
• Long wingspan (Rumor: 7’1) • Below average passer/ vision
• Defending PNR
NBA Comparison: Jamario Moon, Matisse Thybulle
 Tyler Bey has the potential to develop into a 3&D player. The questions lie in his
offensive game, as not much from Colorado will translate to the NBA. The defense
will translate right away due to his great instincts and quick feet. However, the
consistency might waver until he gets a grasp of the league’s heavy Pick N’ Roll
style. On the offensive end he needs to find his role for that specific team and develop
a skillset around it. Bey is an elite athlete with a great motor.
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Choice #3
Paul Reed 21 years old, F/C, DePaul
6’9 220lbs; 7’2” Wingspan
2019-20 (29 games): 15.1 PPG; 10.7 RPG; 1.6
APG; 2.6 BLK; 2.3 TO; 51.6% FG; 30.8% 3FG

Paul Reed is a defense first player. He is an


athletic force that can make plays on that
end of the floor. He averaged 4.5 BLK/STL
per game. Offensively, he is at his best in
transition but struggles in the half court.
Motor and effort are huge issues for Reed.
He is a great defender and hustle player
when he is locked in.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Finishes well around the rim • Does not care for setting screens
• Excels in transition • Low motor off the ball
• Spot up shooting in small volume • Inconsistent shooting mechanics
• Offensive rebounding • Poor shot selection
(11.1% ORB% and 3.3 per game) • Gets caught ball watching on defense and
• Rim protection hunting for steals / blocks
• (9.7% BLK% and 2.6 per game) • Gets into foul trouble
• Held defense • Needs to add size
NBA Comparison: Cheick Diallo, Jonathan Isaac
 Paul Reed has a high ceiling as a defensive force that can make plays at the rim and in
passing lanes. On offense, his ceiling is being a capable three-point shooter off the
catch. His effort and care for the game is a huge swing skill. He must consistently set
hard screens on offense and make correct rotations on defense. Foul trouble could
also follow him throughout his career if he chases blocks.
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Round 2 Pick 56
Choice #1
Jordan Nwora 22 yrs old, F, Louisville
6’7 225lbs; 22 Years Old
2019-20 (31 games): 18.0 PPG; 7.7 RPG; 1.3 APG; 0.3
BLK; 44.0% FG; 40.2% 3FG

Jordan Nwora’s draft stock may be higher this year


than in previous year’s due to the three-point heavy
style of the league & his ability to stretch the floor
and knock down the catch and shoot the three with
consistency. He is far from the best athlete in this
draft, but he has enough athleticism to have some
defensive versatility. He will struggle to create his
own shot in the league which limits his overall
potential.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Shooting/ Quick Release • Below average athlete
• Spatially aware player • Not great at creating his shot
• Size translates to versatility • Weak/ poor finishing
• Elite Catch & shoot • Average ballhandler
• Solid moving shooter/ Pin downs, • Average passing ability
DHO’s, flares, pick n’ pops.
• Run’s shooting lanes in transition
NBA Comparison: Cameron Johnson, Rodney Hood
 Jordan Nwora’s offensive production will rely on other abilities to get him open, and
his consistency knocking down catch and shoot threes. Similar to Cameron Johnson,
he has deep range and a limited ability to create his own shot. Defensively and
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athletically, he resembles of Rodney Hood, usually in the right place but does not
have the talent to be a defensive playmaker.

Choice #2
Jalen Harris 22 yrs old, PG, Nevada
6’5 195lbs
2019-20 (30 games): 21.7 PPG; 6.5 RPG; 2.9 APG; 1.1
STL; 44.6% FG; 36.2% 3FG

Jalen Harris fits into the late second round as a


sparkplug off the bench. He excels on the
offensive end of the floor as a three-level scorer
and creator for others out of the pick and roll. He
is a mixed bag on defense.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Solid touch around the rim • Inconsistent shooter off the catch, should
• Makes the simple read in the PNR be used primarily on the ball
• Top level scorer in isolation and PNR • Questionable reads at times in PNR
• Shows flashes of team defense rotations • Struggles guarding POA
and tags • Inconsistent on defense, even lazy at
• Shows intelligence on defense when times when guarding PNR
chasing shooters off of screening actions • Gets beat downhill frequently
• Decent change of speed, acceleration
NBA Comparison: Trey Burke, Austin Rivers
 Jalen Harris has value as a creator in bench rotations. His scoring is by far his top
skill as he can score from three, midrange, and the paint. His age is an issue as there
is not much room to develop, but he is a finished project that can step into an NBA
rotation. He would fit in well with a contender who needs cheap rotation players.
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Choice #3
Ty-Shon Alexander 22 yrs old, G, Creighton
6’4 195lbs; 6’8” Wingspan
2019-20: 16.9 PPG; 5.0 RPG; 2.3 APG; 1.3 STL; 1.4 TO;
43.1% FG; 39.9% 3FG

Ty-Shon Alexander is a 3&D two guard. He excels


in catch and shoot situations. He efficient with his
possessions, rarely turning the ball over. He will
not provide much outside of floor spacing on
offense. Defensively, he is at his best when
guarding shooters. He defends well on initial
attacks to the rim as well.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Solid shooter with high efficiency and • Undersized
volume • Below average athlete
• Takes care of the ball, TOV% has • Does not add value on the ball
dropped every season • Average footwork
• Attacking of closeouts • Capable passer, but does not exactly
• Defends POA well excel
• Chases shooters through screens well • Ball handling and continued
• Rotates well on defense, playmaker in improvement in PNR would help
these rotations
NBA Comparison: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Gray Trent Jr.
 Ty-Shon Alexander may need another year or two of development before he can step
in as a steady rotation piece. He needs to keep improving on his weaknesses to be
more well-rounded. For defense, he needs to add some more strength and keep
improving on skills like his footwork.
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Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Chris Clarke 24 years old, 6’6, Texas Tech
2. Austin Wiley 21 years old, 6’11, Auburn
3. Trent Forrest, 22 years old, 6’4, Florida State

Hornets Free Agents


V. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Bismack Biyombo $17,000,000
2. Willy Hernangomez $1,676,735
VI. Player Option
1. Nicolas Batum $27,130,434
VII. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Devonte Graham $1,663,831
2. Caleb Martin $1,517,981
3. Jaden McDaniels $1,517,981
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): $31,062,731
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $60,183,423

Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Bismack Biyombo (Projected $3,000,000-$6,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 58.7%]
Biyombo had his highest usage percentage of his career this past season (16.8%), and
it was a bit of a disappointment from the season. He did not provide the Hornets with
the shot blocking (contested 32% of rim attempts, 57th percentile amongst centers) or
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rebounding (53% success rate of defensive rebound chances when only 36% were
contested) they were seeking. With Charlotte struggling immensely as a team in the
rebounding category (26th in rebounds) and Biyombo’s lack of interior defensive
presence, there is little to no value in bringing him back to the roster.
2. Willy Hernangomez (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 70.4%]
Hernangomez has been unable to prove himself as a stretch big in the NBA (22.7%
from three with a 3PTr of 0.158) and does not provide the interior grit at his size to
warrant rotational minutes. Opponents shoot 2% better at the rim vs Hernangomez
than expected. This fits in at the 20th percentile for bigs. With the lack of production
on both ends of the floor, Hernangomez may not gain much attention from NBA teams
in free agency which could lead him to a more lucrative contract overseas.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Nicolas Batum (Player Option $27,130,434)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 0%]
Charlotte handcuffed themselves with this contract and will pay dearly this offseason
when Nicolas Batum picks up his $27 million player option. Injury woes plagued
Batum’s season, and he is a much better than he showed in his 22 games this season.
Unfortunately for Batum and Charlotte, this is a lose-lose situation, Batum will most
likely defer minutes to young developing players despite eating upwards of $27
million on the books. He may be viewed as a potential asset in a three team trade that
requires a large cap hit to match salaries.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Malik Beasley 6’4 190lbs 23 years old, SG/SF, Current Salary: 3,895,424
Projected Annual Salary: $8,000,000-$12,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 21.9%
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Once acquired by Minnesota, Michael Beasley started all 14 games. He could not miss from
three in a Timberwolves jersey. He increased his efficiency (36% to 42.6%, +6.6%) and volume
(3.9 attempts to 8.2 attempts, +4.3) from three-point range. His win shares per 48 minutes
jumped 163% (from 0.3 to 0.79). He moved well off the ball, especially in screening actions.
Although he was mainly an off-ball guard, he can create his own three point shot when necessary
(21% of his threes were unassisted). He finished well around the rim (67.2%) but did not take a
ton of shots in the paint. Those rim attacks mainly came off cuts. On defense, he was average at
best. He has spoken publicly this year about his desire to improve on defense this offseason.
Beasley will get a multiyear contract in the range of $30 million to $40 million. Point of
information, this is all contingent on the current felony weapons and drug charges he is facing in
Minnesota.

Option #2:
Jerami Grant 6’8 210lbs 26 years old, PF/SF, Current Salary: $9,346,153
Projected Annual Salary: $12,000,000-$15,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 1.4%
Jerami Grant is a budding 3&D player. His value skyrocketed during the Nuggets playoff run.
Although his statistical profile regressed some from the regular season, he passed the eye test
with flying colors. He was a competent third or fourth option for the Nuggets when Jamal
Murray and Nikola Jokic received extra defensive attention. Over the past two seasons, Grant has
shown consistently on good volume from three, shooting 39.1% on 545 attempts. He is a plus
player in low volume isolations and at finishing around the rim. He is a competent finisher
around the rim and excels at drawing contact. He does not add much value as a playmaker, but
shot finishing is more of his offensive role and not shot creation. He is adept at most facets of
defense. He was versatile in his matchups, guarding every position for at least 10% of
possessions. He is a good rim deterrent in low volume, blocking 25% of all the shots that he
contested. He still has at least another year or two of growth before his peak. If his playmaking
improves on both ends of the floor, he could be a top 50 player in the league.

Option #3:
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Harry Giles 6’10 240 22 years old, PF/C, Current Salary: $2,578,800
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 64.9%
With only two years in the league, we have only seen a small sample size of what Harry Giles
has to offer at the professional level. Coming out of high school as the #1 recruit in the class of
2016, Giles was viewed as a highly talented power forward. After tearing his ACL for the second
time in his life, Giles missed most of his collegiate time at Duke. Although he declared after not
playing, he was still viewed with the potential of his former #1 status. Things never really
panned out Sacramento with the two sides never fully meshing. Giles averaged just 14 minutes
per game, 7.0 PPG, and 4.0 RPG. Although his production does not seem like much, he is still 21
years old with plenty of upside.

Option #4:
Meyers Leonard 7’0 260lbs, 28 years old, C/PF, Current Salary: $11,286,515
Projected Annual Salary: $8,000,000-$12,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 7.2%
Meyers Leonard is a floor spacing big. He shot 41% from three on 2.5 attempts per game.
Leonard is not a high usage player, but more of a complimentary screener and perimeter oriented
big. He had his lowest USG% of his career during this past season, after breaking out previously
in Portland’s 2019 playoff run to the western conference finals. Although he is a low usage
player, he is extremely efficient, finishing with a TS% over 60% each of the past three seasons.
He functions best offensively as a pick and roll screener, getting to the short roll or popping.
Defensively, he would pair nicely with an athletic guard who can push the ball up the floor as he
is in the top tier of players as far as boxing out is concerned. He is a rim deterrent even if he is
not much of a playmaker, contesting a third of all rim attempts when he is on the court. He is not
much of a perimeter defender but gets by without having that skill set in his bag. From a
marketing standpoint, fans seem to be drawn to his big personality.

Trade Scenarios
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1. Detroit Pistons & Golden State Warriors (3 Team Trade)


Charlotte Receiving: Andrew Wiggins + Luke Kennard
Detroit Receiving: Terry Rozier, 2021 1st Rounder (Via Golden
State), 2022 1st Rounder (Via Charlotte), 2020 2nd Round Pick
(56th overall)
Golden State Receiving: Derrick Rose, Christian Wood (Via Sign
& Trade)
This trade would confirm that Detroit is undergoing a complete rebuild and overhaul of their
roster. Detroit leaves this trade with three picks and Terry Rozier. They deal out veteran Derrick
Rose with one year left on his deal and a breakout player in Christian Wood who they may not
be willing to pay if they are going into a full rebuild. Also, they part with Luke Kennard who has
shown flashes of being an elite shooter, but has endured a few injuries, and overall, an
inconsistent development path. The haul Detroit would receive in this trade would mark a long,
yet promising course toward success. Golden State has made it clear that they are in the business
of contending. Andrew Wiggins may not fit in with Golden State’s style of basketball. Therefore,
Golden State could leverage Wiggins and future picks to get the most out of Klay Thompson’s
and Steph Curry’s prime years. Acquiring a veteran point guard in Rose & a breakout player in
Wood is a win now move. One could argue that Golden State giving up their ’21 first is too
much, but realistically that pick is projected to be in the late 20’s with the current roster
construction of Golden State. For Charlotte, this would expedite their rebuild. Adding Wiggins,
Kennard, & whoever they select with the third overall pick in this year’s draft to a solid young
core would feel like a big win for Charlotte.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers
Charlotte Receiving: Andre Drummond, 5th overall pick
Cleveland Receiving: Nicolas Batum, 3rd overall pick
Andre Drummond adds instant value to Charlotte as they have lacked consistent play
from the center position. Drummond is one of the best rebounders in the NBA, ranking in
the 96th and 99th percentile respectively for the offensive and defensive glass. They also
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manage to get some salary off the books in the short term by sending Nicolas Batum to
Cleveland. He is the salary filler that allows this trade to take place. They move back two
spots for the two-time All-Star. In this draft class, there is not much of a drop off in talent
from three to five unless Anthony Edwards or LaMelo Ball fall to three. Drummond can
also be flipped at the deadline if he returns to All-Star caliber play.

3. Indiana Pacers
Charlotte Receiving: Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner
Indiana Receiving: Cody Zeller, Malik Monk, 3rd overall pick
Charlotte acquires two proven commodities in Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner in exchange for
the third overall pick in a less than stellar draft class. Charlotte becomes an instant playoff
contender, especially if Oladipo returns to playoff form. Competing in the top five of the eastern
conference may convince him to stay past 2021. In this trade, Charlotte sends Cody Zeller who
serves as a salary match and Malik Monk who has been disappointing in his development with
Charlotte. He has struggled to add consistent scoring. Zeller however provides the Indiana Pacers
with solid post efficiency and screening in the pick and roll. He averaged 3.6 unassisted shots at
the rim per 75 possessions, ranking in the 94th percentile amongst bigs. Monk still has the
potential to develop into a volume shooter. A change of scenery can turn the tides for him.
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CHICAGO BULLS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
XIII. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 4
b. Round 2: Pick 44
XIV. Team Needs
a. Wing Talent
i. Defensive capabilities, lateral quickness/on ball IQ; offensive
playmaking abilities/decision making
b. Active Forward
i. Hustle Rebounder, Defensive presence 3-5, gritty
XV. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Bulls Free Agency
XIII. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XIV. Free Agent Targets
XV. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 4
Choice #1
Deni Avdija 19 yrs old, F, Maccabi Tel Aviv
(ISBL)
6’9 220lbs; 6’9 Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 12.8 PPG; 2.3 RPG; 6.2 APG;
1.5 STL; 45.5% FG; 39.0% 3FG

Deni Avdija is an elite level international


talent. He is an all-around offensive player that
can be a half court creator. He has a great feel
for the game. He is a strong defensive player
that shows consistent effort on that end. He
flaunts a high floor due to his mixed bag of skills.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Great feel for the game • Translation of three-point shooting,
• Cuts well off the ball, slips screens well footwork is main mechanical issue
• Nice touch around the rim • Low free throw percentage
• Great handle for a bigger wing • Average burst out of first step
• Able to get his shot off whenever • Right hand dominant
• Intelligent passer • Tries to do too much at times
• Physical defender, solid athlete • Top tier athletes can beat him downhill
• Shown added strength over past year
NBA Comparison: Hedo Turkoglu, Joe Ingles+
 Deni Avdija is a top prospect in this class due to his high floor and foundational skills
that could also lead to an extremely high ceiling if his shooting translates to the NBA.
He can add immediate value at the three or four as a secondary creator. Defensively,
he is better than given credit for. He reads passing lanes well does a good job of
blocking shots at well. He is a playmaker on both ends of the floor.
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Choice #2
Obi Toppin 22 yrs old, F, Dayton
6’9 230lbs; 7’2 Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 20.0 PPG; 7.5 RPG;
2.2 APG; 1.2 STL; 1.2 BLK; 63.3% FG;
39.0% 3FG

Obi Toppin is coming of a Wooden


Award level season. He is an
extraordinary vertical athlete with
107 dunks. His strength is his
scoring and versatility on offense.
Questions come in regarding his
defense and his age.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Strong finisher at the rim • Older prospect due to year in prep school
• Potential to stretch the floor with • Poor defender
shooting • Struggles to move laterally, gets caught
• Runs the floor well in transition off balance
• Quick first step • Gets beat in POA frequently
• NBA ready frame • May struggle in the post on both ends of
• Can immediately step in as a starter the floor due to high center of gravity
NBA Comparison: John Collins, Derrick Williams
 Obi Toppin is an immediate front runner for rookie of the year. He is an elite vertical
and straight-line athlete. Scoring will be easy for him at the NBA level. He is going to
face serious issues down the road on defense especially guarding the pick and roll. He
is not good enough to hedge or drop screening actions. He struggles to move laterally
although he is a great athlete. His high center of gravity and opportunistic motor must
be part of the problem.
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Choice #3
Isaac Okoro 19 yrs old, F, Auburn
6’6 225lbs; 6’9 Wingspan
2019-20: 12.8 PPG; 4.4 RPG; 2.0 APG; 0.9
STL; 2.0 TO; 51.4% FG; 28.6% 3FG

Okoro is the prototypical build for an


NBA forward. A long, athletic swing
prospect with a strong defensive
presence that can play point of attack
against an opponent’s top scorer.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Strong ability to finish off both feet at • Struggles to score outside paint
the rim, not afraid of contact • Needs improved shooting mechanics,
• Poise and composure at a young age, footwork
does not gamble • Looks lost on offense when slashing
• Solid first step, rips well in triple threat lanes taken away
• Great defensive instincts/awareness, • Always looking to spin or Euro step,
moves well laterally, can guard 1-5 low variety of moves
• Active off ball defender with solid • Inconsistent free throw shooter
spatial awareness • No off-dribble jump shot
• Capable shooter off catch • Can get sloppy/out of control on drives
NBA Comparison: Justice Winslow, Justin Anderson, Jaylen Brown
 Isaac Okoro is a high value wing defender with low offensive production from outside
the paint. Okoro has an impressive demeanor and shows maturity. His role will be to
guard the number one option every night.
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ROUND 2 PICK 44
Choice #1
Robert Woodard 21 yrs old, F, Mississippi State
6’7 235lbs; 7’1” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 Games): 11.4 PPG; 6.5 RPG; 1.3 APG; 1.1
STL; 1.9 TO; 49.5% FG; 42.9% 3FG

Robert Woodard took a huge jump from his


freshman to sophomore season. He shows potential
as a 3&D player. He is a high IQ defender that
showed value as a playmaker.

Strengths Weaknesses
• 3&D potential • Low volume from three
• Defensive playmaker (70 attempts, 3PTr of 25.5)
• 3PT% raised 15% from fr. to soph. • Poor free throw shooter (64%)
• Great NBA size frame • Turns the ball over frequently
• Cuts well off the ball (0.7:1.0 AST:TO)
• Attacks the offensive glass • Size could be a detriment when guarding
• Good isolation defender (0.67 PPP) quicker guards

• Potential as a defensive playmaker • Not an on-ball creator


NBA Comparison: PJ Tucker, Shawn Marion
 Robert Woodard’s increased three-point percentage and volume put him on NBA radars.
That combined with his size makes him a legitimate prospect. As the NBA trends to
smaller lineups, Woodard could be looked at as a small ball four or five in extreme cases.
He may struggle at times to guard perimeter players at the next level. His career will
mainly rely on how well his shooting translates.
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Choice #2
Naji Marshall 22 yrs old, F, Xavier
6’7 220lbs; 7’0 Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 16.8 PPG; 6.3 RPG; 4.0
APG; 1.3 STL; 3.4 TO; 44.5% FG; 28.6% 3FG

Naji Marshall was a veteran leader for


Xavier. He is a secondary creator that
does a good job of finishing around the
rim. His shooting is below average.
Defensively, he is a plus help defender
and a great on ball defender.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Good finisher at the rim • Poor shot selection, settles for jumpers
• (68.9 FG%) • Inconsistent shooting form
• Can get downhill in on ball situations • Average at drawing fouls
• Low volume PNR ball handler • (0.32 FTr)
• Plus passer as a forward, can push the • Turnovers can be a problem
ball in transition • Struggles in catch and shoot possessions
• (4.5 AST per 40) • (0.82 PPP, 28th percentile)
• Active help defender, makes solid • Not much of a post-game or floater
rotations • Almost 23 years old, took postgrad year
• Uses length really well on defense
NBA Comparison: Justin Anderson, Post Prime Andre Igoudala
 Naji Marshall is an older prospect that fits into the back end of a rotation. Marshall’s
jumper has looked better after summer workouts in Las Vegas. He is a versatile
player on both ends of the floor, as a creating slasher on offense and a wing who can
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confidently guard the two through four. Shot selection, playing out of his role, and
age are the three biggest deterrents to his ceiling.

Choice #3
Udoka Azubuike 21 yrs old, C, Kansas
7’0 260lbs; 7’7” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 13.7 PPG; 10.5 RPG; 0.9 APG;
2.6 BLK; 74.8% FG; 0% 3FG

Udoka Azubuike is a force in the paint. His


play style is that of a traditional five that
dunks, rebounds, and blocks shots. An NBA
ready frame is an understatement, as he has
shed 20 pounds of excess weight and boasts
the best wingspan in the class.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Great NBA frame • Low ceiling due to limited scoring
• Best finisher around the rim in NCAA potential outside of paint
• +7 wingspan • Needs work guarding PNR
• Quick jumper off vert • Conditioning and injury concerns
• Great hands, can catch anything around • Free throw shooting
the rim • Black hole on offense
• Shot blocker on defense • Not a great runner

NBA Comparison: Boban Marjanovic, Rudy Gobert


 Udoka Azubuike is a raw player with the physical skills to step into a rotation. He
will be an efficient scorer around the rim due to his length and quick vertical. He will
be limited in late game situations due to his poor free throw numbers. He may
struggle on defense initially due to his limited potential as a pick and roll defender.
He will have to play in drop coverage. He may also be a player that seeks out blocked
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shots instead of the right defensive play. Conditioning will be key for him over an 82
game season.

Undrafted Free Agent Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Kenyon Martin Jr, 19 years old, 6’6, IMG Academy
2. Omer Yurtsteven, 22 years old, 7’0, Georgetown
3. John Mooney, 23 years old, 6’9, Notre Dame

Bulls Free Agents


I. Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
1. Kris Dunn $7,091,457
2. Denzel Valentine $4,642,800
3. Shaquille Harrison $2,025,705
II. Player Option
1. Otto Porter Jr. $28,489,239
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($4,787,670)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $36,514,988
Who stays, Who goes
▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Kris Dunn (Projected $8,000,000-$10,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 89.3%]
When the Bulls made the trade to send Jimmy Butler to the Timberwolves back in
2017, Kris Dunn was the second piece behind Zach Lavine in the deal. Upon his
arrival in Chicago, Dunn was immediately inserted as the starting point guard. His first
year in the Windy City was a bright one, but since then Dunn has regressed rather than
progressed. His first and biggest issue is injuries. The best attribute is availability and
Dunn has yet to play a full season for Chicago. He has also consistently struggled to
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shoot the three, shooting a career low 25.9% 3FG this past season. Although his top
attribute being on the defensive side where he has received All Defensive Team votes,
with the Bulls drafting Coby White before last season and the demand Dunn may
receive in free agency, his tenure in Chicago looks as if it has come to a close.
2. Denzel Valentine (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 89.3%]
After missing the entire 2018-2019 season due to injury and only appearing in 36
games this past season, Valentine was mainly relegated to the bench under Coach
Boylen. He was a DNP or inactive for 29 games this season. He shot well on corner
threes at 42.9%, but that is the only area where he excelled on offense. He was
historically bad at drawing fouls at (0.034 FTr) and shot 54.5% at the rim. He could
barely even get to the rim, only take 11 attempts there. On defense, he exceled in
passing lanes after averaging 3.8 steals off bas passes and deflections for 75
possessions, in the 79th percentile amongst wings. Outside of the ability to guard
shootings wings, he does not add much. Look for the Chicago Bulls to part ways with
him.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Otto Porter Jr. (Player Option $28,489,239)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 0.1%]
Coming off a season taken by injuries and an extremely high player option, Otto Porter
Jr. will absolutely be back in a Bulls uniform this season. This past season in 14
games, Porter flashed some bad trends as he shot 43.2% from three off the catch, but
his shooting gravity sat in the 59th percentile amongst wings. Defenses just did not
respect him as a shooter. Look for Porter to possibly operate as a secondary facilitator
in small volume next season. With Porter expected back fully healthy, the Bulls will
hopefully get the most they can out of the former third overall pick.
2. Shaquille Harrison (Projected $3,000,000-$6,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 74.8%]
Beginning his on a 10-day contract two seasons ago, Shaquille Harrison has been
phenomenal in his role with Chicago. With his versatility to play the 1 through 3,
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Harrison is a hard-working player the Bulls should work hard to keep on their roster.
With a bit of a decrease in minutes this past season Harrison saw a rise in his shooting
percentages across the board (46.7% [3.5% increase], 38.1% 3FG [11.1% increase],
51.5% EFG[5.5% increase], 78.0% FT[11.3% increase]). With his increase production
on offense and his ability defensively, Harrison has found a spot in this league.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Derrick Jones Jr. 6’6 210lbs, 23 years old, SF, Current Salary: $1,645,357
Projected Annual Salary: $8,000,000-$12,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 18.7%
Derrick Jones Jr. is a freak athlete, who provides a team with incredible versatility. He is quick
enough to guard two guards & he is tall and lengthy enough to give forwards fits. Offensively, he
is developing his three-point shooting. He is currently a rather poor shooter as he was left open
frequently (35.7% open), and his shooting gravity was in the 22nd percentile among wings. His
role is not as an offensive creator at all as he only averages 0.5 isolation possessions per 75
possessions and was a rather poor passer. He is already a good cutter and offensive rebounder.
He shot 72% on cuts (67th percentile). Defensively, he is at his best when guarding off the ball.
He uses his seven-foot-long wingspan to read passing lanes extremely well and getting over to
the rim in rotations as a shot blocker. He averaged 2.3 steals and blocks per 36 minutes. He is
also is active on closeouts, contesting 5.8 threes per 75 possessions (93rd percentile among
wings). Jones has potential to add value in a multitude of ways as the wing spot.

Option #2:
Josh Jackson 6’8 210lbs, 23 years old, SF/SG, Current Salary: $7,059,480
Projected Annual Salary: $2,000,000-$4,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 97.6%
Josh Jackson has struggled during his time in the NBA. He flashed enough potential at Kansas to
make him a top five pick in the draft. A veteran locker room presence may be key to his long-
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term career aspirations. From a statistical perspective, he had negative win shares both of his first
two seasons but turned that around in his third season in extremely low volume. He has not had
any success on the offensive end of the floor, shooting 29.8% from three and 57% percent at the
rim. He is not much of a playmaker either. He still needs to find his role on offense. On the
defensive side of the ball, he has started to show some potential. Memphis had him spend a lot of
time guarding primary creators. He showed some versatility, spending significant time guarding
the one through four. He showed flashes of reading passing lanes as well. Jackson needs to get
some live action reps. There is some real potential for him on defense.

Option #3:
De’Anthony Melton 6’2 190lbs 22 years old, PG, Last Season Salary:
$1,416,852 Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 93.9%
In two seasons on two separate teams, De’Anthony Melton has been a very quality role player.
At only 22 years old, he has become consistent with about 20 minutes per game with a strong
defensive IQ. Melton posted a respectable 105.0 defensive rating this past season. He had nearly
a 2.0 to 1.0 assist to turnover ratio and three assists per game. He is an aggressive passer that
seeks out passes to shooters and cutters. Melton must show improvement in the shooting respects
with a 28.6% 3FG last season. He needs to improve specifically off the dribble as he shot 17.6%
from three on pull up attempts, while shooting 38.3% on catch and shoot attempts. Defensively,
he is immaculate in passing lanes as he averaged 4.4 deflections per 75 possessions, in the 98th
percentile amongst guards. Being a projected minimum Melton could come in and be a great
rotational backup point guard for the team able to sign him.

Option #4:
Glenn Robinson III 6’6 220lbs 26 years old, G, Current Salary: $1,882,867
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000-$8,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 40.9%
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Glenn Robinson III has found his role in the NBA as an off the bench spark plug. The 26-year-
old posted career highs in all major offensive categories last year. Prior to being dealt to
Philadelphia, Robinson III was shooting with splits of 48.1/40.0/85.1 from the field in Golden
State. This pace proved to be unsustainable as he struggled in his smaller role in Philadelphia.
Robinson III projects to be paid around the mid-level exception for a team this off-season and
figures to be given the opportunity to give offense to a contender’s bench unit.

Option #5:
Brandon Knight 6’2 182lbs 28 years old, PG, Current Salary: $1,882,867
Projected Annual Salary: League Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: %
Brandon Knight has yet to play a (near) full season since the 2016-2017 season, and due to the
lack of availability on the court it is hard to measure up to the player we would be seeing now.
He has been working out and with being a free agent this season he will be looking to revive his
career. From what Knight showed when he was able to appear in the court, is his ability to create
his own shot, score against contact and small amount of playmaking abilities. Teams in a
rebuilding situation or low cap space could be willing to give him the chance in battling for a
roster spot.

Trade Scenarios

1. Philadelphia 76ers
76ers Receiving: Otto Porter Jr, Cristiano Felicio, 2020 2nd Round
Pick (44th overall), 2021 2nd Round Pick
Cleveland Receiving: Tobias Harris, Zhaire Smith
This trade gives the Chicago Bulls a primary wing scorer to complement Zach LaVine.
He does a good job of attacking downhill and finishing through contact. He finished
29.7% of his rim attempts when he drew a foul, ranking in the 81st percentile amongst
wings. Zhaire Smith is an additional prospect to add to the Chicago roster. He is an
athlete that has not received much run yet in Philadelphia. The Philadelphia 76ers get
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over $90 million off their books with this deal. In the short term, Otto Porter Jr may fit
their offensive scheme better as he provides better floor spacing than Harris. In general,
he is more accepting of an off-ball role. Christiano Felicio is a salary filler that is a long
shot to be a rotation piece. The 2020 and 2021 second round picks allows Philadelphia to
possibly package their four (five if they include the Pelicans pick) second round picks for
a first.
2. Charlotte Hornets
Bulls Receiving: 2020 1st Round Pick (3rd overall), Nicolas Batum,
Malik Monk
Hornets Receiving: Zach Lavine, Thaddeus Young
This trade would be the result of Chicago acknowledging that they should move on from Zach
LaVine. This allows Chicago to go all in on this draft class. With picks three and four, Chicago
can add a playmaker and wing. Any combination of Deni Avdija, Issac Okoro, Killian Hayes,
Devin Vassell, and Tyrese Haliburton would be great value to add to a young team. Nicolas
Batum’s role in this trade is salary filler. He could possibly be a buyout candidate. Malik Monk
could be looked at as a filler that has potential to crack a rotation after another year or two of
development. Zach LaVine is a true number one scorer for Charlotte. He also opens up the
option for the Hornets to run three guard lineups like Oklahoma City. LaVine spent significant
time guarding the small forward (22.9% of his defensive possessions) and that should translate
well to a Charlotte team that lacks wing help. Thaddeus Young’s salary is dumped and used to
match.

3. Brooklyn Nets
Nets Receiving: Lauri Markkanen
Bulls Receiving: Jarrett Allen, Dzanan Musa
This trade is dependent on Chicago’s view of Wendell Carter’s projection as a stretch big. This
past season, he shot 20.7% from three on 29 attempts, but there is video footage of Carter’s
offseason workouts where his jumper has looked promising. At Duke, he shot 41% from three on
46 attempts. For Chicago, Jarrett Allen would replace Lauri Markkanen as a bonafide paint
presence that can hold it down on the offensive and defensive side of the floor. He has not faced
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the injury concerns that Markkanen has battled either. Dzanan Musa is an additional prospect
that may eventually crack the back end of the rotation. For Brooklyn, Markkanen fits in much
better to their lineup. He can start at the four compared to Allen who had to come off the bench
behind DeAndre Jordan. He provides spacing around Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant.
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CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
XVI. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 5
XVII. Team Needs
a. Best Player Available
i. The Cavaliers need talent. They do have many clear-cut assets.
Collin Sexton has been a sieve on defense. Darius Garland
struggled on both ends of the floor. Kevin Porter has very
public off court issues. All the big men on the roster do not fit
this team’s timeline either.
b. 3&D Wing
i. Only Kevin Love, Cedi Osman, and Matthew Dellavedova shot
more than half their shots from behind the three-point line.
This team also gave up the second most points in the paint.
Their wings struggled to guard basically every offensive action.
XVIII. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Cavs Free Agency
XVI. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XVII. Free Agent Targets
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XVIII. Trade Scenarios


ROUND 1 PICK 5
Choice #1
Deni Avdija 19 yrs old, F, Maccabi Tel Aviv
(ISBL)
6’9 220lbs; 6’9 Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 12.9 PPG; 6.3 RPG; 2.7 APG; 0.9 STL;
2.2 TO; 52.6% FG; 35.3% 3FG

Deni Avdija is an elite level international talent. He


is an all-around offensive player that can be a half
court creator. He has a great feel for the game. He is
a strong defensive player that shows consistent
effort on that end. He flaunts a high floor due to his
mixed bag of skills.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Great feel for the game • Translation of three-point shooting,
• Cuts well off the ball, slips screens well footwork is main mechanical issue
• Nice touch around the rim • Low free throw percentage
• Great handle for a bigger wing • Average burst out of first step
• Able to get his shot off whenever • Right hand dominant
• Intelligent passer • Tries to do too much at times
• Physical defender, solid athlete • Top tier athletes can beat him downhill
• Shown added strength over past year
NBA Comparison: Hedo Turkoglu, Joe Ingles+
 Deni Avdija is a top prospect in this class due to his high floor and foundational skills
that could also lead to an extremely high ceiling if his shooting translates to the NBA.
He can add immediate value at the three or four as a secondary creator. Defensively,
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he is better than given credit for. He reads passing lanes well does a good job of
blocking shots at well. He is a playmaker on both ends of the floor.

Choice #2
Obi Toppin 22 yrs old, F, Dayton
6’9 230lbs; 7’2 Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 20.0 PPG; 7.5 RPG;
2.2 APG; 1.2 STL; 1.2 BLK; 63.3% FG;
39.0% 3FG

Obi Toppin is coming of a Wooden


Award level season. He is an
extraordinary vertical athlete with
107 dunks. His strength is his
scoring and versatility on offense.
Questions come in regarding his
defense and his age.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Strong finisher at the rim • Older prospect due to year in prep school
• Potential to stretch the floor with • Poor defender
shooting • Struggles to move laterally, gets caught
• Runs the floor well in transition off balance
• Quick first step • Gets beat in POA frequently
• NBA ready frame • May struggle in the post on both ends of
• Can immediately step in as a starter the floor due to high center of gravity
NBA Comparison: John Collins, Derrick Williams
 Obi Toppin is an immediate front runner for rookie of the year. He is an elite vertical
and straight-line athlete. Scoring will be easy for him at the NBA level. He is going to
face serious issues down the road on defense especially guarding the pick and roll. He
is not good enough to hedge or drop screening actions. He struggles to move laterally
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although he is a great athlete. His high center of gravity and opportunistic motor must
be part of the problem.

Choice #3
Isaac Okoro 19 yrs old, F, Auburn
6’6 225lbs; 6’9 Wingspan
2019-20: 12.8 PPG; 4.4 RPG; 2.0 APG; 0.9
STL; 2.0 TO; 51.4% FG; 28.6% 3FG

Okoro is the prototypical build for an


NBA forward. A long, athletic swing
prospect with a strong defensive
presence that can play point of attack
against an opponent’s top scorer.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Strong ability to finish off both feet at • Struggles to score outside paint
the rim, not afraid of contact • Needs improved shooting mechanics,
• Poise and composure at a young age, footwork
does not gamble • Looks lost on offense when slashing
• Solid first step, rips well in triple threat lanes taken away
• Great defensive instincts/awareness, • Always looking to spin or Euro step,
moves well laterally, can guard 1-5 low variety of moves
• Active off ball defender with solid • Inconsistent free throw shooter
spatial awareness • No off-dribble jump shot
• Capable shooter off catch • Can get sloppy/out of control on drives
NBA Comparison: Justice Winslow, Justin Anderson, Jaylen Brown
 Isaac Okoro is a high value wing defender with low offensive production from outside
the paint. Okoro has an impressive demeanor and shows maturity. His role will be to
guard the number one option every night.
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Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Trent Forrest, 22 years old, 6’4, Florida State
2. Nate Hinton, 21 years old, 6’5, Houston
3. Tres Tinkle, 24 years old, 6’7, Oregon State

Cavaliers Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Tristan Thompson $18,539,130
2. Matthew Dellavedova $9,607,500
3. Ante Zizic $2,281800
II. Player Option
1. Andre Drummond $28,751,775
III. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Jordan Bell $1,762,796
2. Alfonzo McKinnie $1,762,796
3. Dean Wade $1,517,981
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($10,800,963)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $32,781,213

Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Matthew Dellavedova (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 58.3%]
Matthew Dellavedova has struggled since the end of his first stint in Cleveland which
ended after the 2016 season. His worst BPM during that three-year run was -2.8, while
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the best BPM he has had since than was -4.2. He is also coming off his worst season in
the NBA. He shot 23% from three, which sits right at the bottom of the league. He
struggled to get downhill to the rim or even finish there (54.2%). On defense, he really
struggled to guard anyone. It is not an effort thing, as his motor is by far his best skill.
It is just an issue of age combined with injury history deteriorating taking away from
his lateral speed. He has faced both knee and ankle issues over the past few years.
There is not a role for Dellavedova on this team as they are seeking to give their guard
minutes to their young core of Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, and the prospect drafted
with the 5th pick.
2. Tristan Thompson (Projected Mid-Level Exception)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 36%]:
Tristan Thompson has added value to Cleveland over the past decade, but his time
with the organization should be ending this offseason. He does not fit the timeline of
this team as they are most likely heading toward a full rebuild once Andre
Drummond’s contract is over. He has shown improved floor spacing as his three-point
percentage has risen to 39% on low volume. This is the first year he has even made
one three during his career. This could point to a Brook Lopez like transformation to
end his career. He should add value with a contending team, but there is no need to
bring him back to Cleveland unless he is willing to accept a minimum.
3. Ante Zizic (Signed with Maccabi Tel Aviv):
Ante Zizic has already committed to a contract with Maccabi Tel Aviv, Deni Avdija’s
previous team. He stated wanting to play legitimate minutes for a contending team and
thinking he can do it in the ISBL. Zizic’s older brother won the EuroLeague with
Maccabi Tel Aviv in 2014, and Zizic said that his brother played a role in his decision
to go back to Europe. Zizic only played 22 games for the Cavaliers, struggling to find
a spot in their rotation this past season.
4. Alfonzo McKinnie (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 51.9%]
Alfonzo McKinnie is coming off one of the worst offensive seasons in the NBA. He
was below the 20th percentile amongst wings in PPP in five of the most used basketball
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actions: Transition, PNR Ball Handler, PNR Roll Man, Spot Up, and Post Up. The
only actions where he is above the 50th percentile in those metrics are Cuts, Putbacks,
and Off Screens. He was extremely inefficient on low volume (171 shots). On defense,
he is a hard worker who does a good job of reading passing lanes and chasing shooters
off of screens, but he is not an exception POA defender or team defender. At best, he
is an average defender on the perimeter. Being 28 years old, McKinnie does not fit the
Cavaliers timeline. He has three unguaranteed years left on his contract, and he should
be hitting the free agent market this winter.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Andre Drummond (Player Option $28,751,775)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 13.5%]
Andre Drummond said on the Le Batard & Friends Podcast that he was planning on
picking up his player option in June. The current sentiment is that he still plans on
resigning, especially with an uncertain free agency market. Drummond just finished
leading the NBA in rebounds (15.2). Outside of rebounding, he just does not add much
value. On offense, he takes 5.2 solation possessions per 75 with over 70% of those
being in the post. He put up 0.78 PPP in isolations, in the 41st percentile amongst bigs.
That is just an out of date style of play. He cannot stretch the floor or add much
perimeter value. On defense, he is an average rim protector at best. He contests 37% of
rim attempts, in the 61st percentile amongst bigs. Most Drummond’s value is derived
from his rebounding. Even though he is elite at this, it is not worth $28 million. He has
a player option, and he will be accepting it.
2. Dean Wade (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 54.4%]
Dean Wade only saw playing time at the NBA level this year during garbage time
playing 71 minutes over 12 games this past season. During his time at Kansas State,
his reputation as a prospect was a potential stretch big with some playmaking ability
for others. He did manage to go 2 for 4 during his first season in Cleveland. In the G
League, he shot 39.9% from three on 138 attempts. This points to those stretch big
projections coming true. He improved as a rim protector when he started playing
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professionally. His block percentage at Kansas State during his senior year was 2.2%
but jumped to 3.9% during his 30 G League games. He has shown some potential to
fill in a bench rotation spot while only being 23 years old. His contract will most likely
be guaranteed this year.
3. Jordan Bell (Non-Guaranteed $1,762,796)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 41.6%]
Jordan Bell was signed by the Cavaliers to a one-year unguaranteed contract during
the NBA’s transaction window before the bubble restart. He was signed for his
potential, not his current output. During his three-year career, he has declined since the
end of his rookie season. His minutes have declined each year from 809 to 788 to 256.
His AST%, STL%, BLK%, WS, and BPM have all faced a serious decline. His role
during his time in the league has been as a small ball five or a four. This entails
playing in a lot of rim protection situations. This has been one of his best skills when
using the eye test, but analytics point to him being below average amongst bigs when
looking at his interior defense. The preseason workouts being ran in Cleveland are a
driving force for the decision to keep Bell on for the season as Coach Bickerstaff has
spoken publicly about how impressive Bell has been.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Derrick Jones Jr. 6’6 210lbs, 23 years old, SF, Current Salary: $1,645,357
Projected Annual Salary: $8,000,000-$12,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 18.7%
Derrick Jones Jr. is a freak athlete, who provides a team with incredible versatility. He is quick
enough to guard two guards & he is tall and lengthy enough to give forwards fits. Offensively, he
is developing his three-point shooting. He is currently a rather poor shooter as he was left open
frequently (35.7% open), and his shooting gravity was in the 22nd percentile among wings. His
role is not as an offensive creator at all as he only averages 0.5 isolation possessions per 75
possessions and was a rather poor passer. He is already a good cutter and offensive rebounder.
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He shot 72% on cuts (67th percentile). Defensively, he is at his best when guarding off the ball.
He uses his seven-foot-long wingspan to read passing lanes extremely well and getting over to
the rim in rotations as a shot blocker. He averaged 2.3 steals and blocks per 36 minutes. He is
also is active on closeouts, contesting 5.8 threes per 75 possessions (93rd percentile among
wings). Jones has potential to add value in a multitude of ways as the wing spot.

Option #2:
Josh Jackson 6’8 210lbs, 23 years old, SF/SG, Current Salary: $7,059,480
Projected Annual Salary: $2,000,000-$4,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 97.6%
Josh Jackson has struggled during his time in the NBA. He flashed enough potential at Kansas to
make him a top five pick in the draft. A veteran locker room presence may be key to his long-
term career aspirations. From a statistical perspective, he had negative win shares both of his first
two seasons but turned that around in his third season in extremely low volume. He has not had
any success on the offensive end of the floor, shooting 29.8% from three and 57% percent at the
rim. He is not much of a playmaker either. He still needs to find his role on offense. On the
defensive side of the ball, he has started to show some potential. Memphis had him spend a lot of
time guarding primary creators. He showed some versatility, spending significant time guarding
the one through four. He showed flashes of reading passing lanes as well. Jackson needs to get
some live action reps. There is some real potential for him on defense.

Option #3:
Jevon Carter: 6’1 200lbs 25 years old, PG, Current Salary $1,416,852
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 20.3%
Jevon Carter is an end of rotation signing to add value in specific matchups. Carter drew some
notoriety as a backup point guard during his eight-game run with the Suns in the bubble which
included a 20-point game against the Miami Heat. On the offensive end of the floor, he is only a
plus as a three-point shooter off the catch. He made threes at a good clip, but he did not face
much defensive focus. That 42% clip could face decline if he gets more attention from defenses
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as well as when volume increases. Outside of that, Carter is a negative everywhere else on the
offensive side of the ball. Defensively, Carter is a top tier perimeter defender. He uses his body
extremely well and makes it tough for ball handlers. He is a tough defender both as a point of
attack defender and as a team defender.

Option #4:
Dwayne Bacon 6’6 220lbs 25 years old, SG, Current Salary: $1,618,520
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 67.1%
Dwayne Bacon is a project player that could eventually add value at the end of a rotation.
Offensively his role has been to score in isolation in spot minutes. He is extremely poor at this
aspect, with an eFG% of 38.5% and TO% of 13%, good for the 19th and 15th percentile
respectively. He would benefit from playing off a ball-dominant playmaker. He is a decent three-
point shooter off of the catch and finishes well around the rim. His athleticism helps him get
whatever shot he wants around the rim and portrays solid touch on his floater. He is not a
complete liability as a playmaker, showing the skills necessary when looking for the pass.
Defensively, he is an above average perimeter player. He does a decent job at guarding wings at
the point of attack. When locked in, he closes out well and forces the action. A lot of concern
about Bacon stems from his off the court activity and his mentality. He could be an average 3&D
player off the bench if he stays locked in.

Option #5:
Thon Maker 7’0 220lbs 23 years old, C/PF, Current Salary: $3,569,643
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 38%
Thon Maker came into the league as a huge name on social media due to his length and assumed
athleticism. Unfortunately, he has not met those expectations as he only played 12 minutes per
game this past season with the Detroit Pistons, but he still shows some potential. He shot 34%
from three on low volume. 90% of his threes were from above the break, adding more value as
those are harder to make threes than from the corners. His other real skills on offense are playing
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the roll man in the pick and roll and playing in the post. In the post, Maker does a good job of
pinning defender on his top side and getting a pass over the top right to the rim. He is somewhat
of a black hole in the paint, so this is also a drawback. He is also good at attacking the glass on
the offensive end, specifically for put back dunks and tip ins. Maker averaged 1.4 put backs per
75 possessions. Defensively, he goes for every block as he contests 48% of rim attempts when he
was on the floor. His defense is still somewhat suspect as most of his minutes came in garbage
time. Maker is a target for his potential, not for instant on court impact.

Trade Scenarios

1. Minnesota Timberwolves

Timberwolves Receiving: Kevin Love, 2020 1st Round Pick (5th


overall)
Cavaliers Receiving: Jake Layman, James Johnson, 2020 1st
Round Pick (1st overall)
In this trade, the Cleveland Cavaliers make a big move to trade up for the number one overall
pick. With this move, they also dump the remaining $91 million on Kevin Love’s contract. At
this spot, Cleveland could realistically go after Anthony Edwards or James Wiseman. While
Love’s presence is valued within the organization as a locker room leader, his on-court
production is not necessarily valuable for a rebuilding team. Love is a versatile big that can add
immense value to a Minnesota offense that could average 115 points per game. He can operate
out of the post when necessary or even be used in screening actions. 36.1% of his half court
possessions came off screening actions. He is also a great passer that can help Minnesota run in
transition. For Cleveland, Jake Layman has potential to fit in as an eighth or ninth man in the
rotation. James Johnson is a salary filler that allows this trade to work.

2. Chicago Bulls

Bulls Receiving: Andre Drummond, 2020 1st Round Pick (5th


overall)
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Cavaliers Receiving: Otto Porter Jr., 2020 1st Round Pick (4th
overall)
The Cleveland Cavaliers receive Otto Porter, a 3&D wing, and move up one spot in this year’s
draft. For Cleveland, the matter at hand is not who is the better player between Otto Porter and
Andre Drummond, but better fit with the current roster construction. Porter shot 43.2% on catch
and shoot threes. Cleveland would look to move Drummond to free up the starting center spot
for a prospect like James Wiseman or Onyeka Okongwu. This trade is a no-brainer for Chicago
if they are not sold on any specific player at the fourth pick. Drummond provides Chicago with a
former all-star caliber big that is one of the best glass cleaners in the NBA on a one-year
contract.

3. Golden State Warriors

Warriors Receiving: Larry Nance Jr, Dean Wade, 2020 1st Round
Pick (5th overall)
Cavaliers Receiving: Kavon Looney 2020 1st Round Pick (2nd
overall)
This trade allows the Cavaliers to move up in the draft. This would put them in position to grab a
player with a higher ceiling such as Anthony Edwards or LaMelo Ball than they could currently
find at the 5th pick. Ball would allow a ton of creativity with Cleveland’s lineups, including
opportunities for three guard lineups just like the Thunder ran this year. Ball could avoid
guarding pick and rolls as well if he guards up at the three. Golden State also benefits from this
trade as they upgrade the center position with Larry Nance Jr replacing Kevin Looney. Dean
Wade also could help this team as they do not have much perimeter shooting at all outside of
Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. They will remain near the top of the draft with this trade and
are put into a position to draft Devin Vassell.
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DALLAS MAVERICKS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
XIX. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 18
b. Round 2: Pick 31
XX. Team Needs
a. Shooting/Playmaking Guard
i. Defensive capabilities, lateral quickness/on ball IQ; offensive
playmaking abilities/decision making
b. Multiple position player
i. Dallas had a solidified core and is looking to add more players
to compliment Luka and give him options to pass to out of
drives or be able to create while he is off the court
XXI. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Mavericks Free Agency
XIX. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XX. Free Agent Targets
XXI. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 18
Choice #1
Tyrese Maxey 19 yrs old, G, Kentucky
6’3 198lbs; 6’6 Wingspan
2019-20: 14.0 PPG; 4.3 RPG; 3.2 APG; 0.9
STL; 2.2 TO; 42.7% FG; 29.2% 3FG

Tyrese Maxey is a versatile scorer with a


unique offensive skill set. He can score
at all three levels. Although, he did hold
up to preseason statistical standards.
Maxey is an active defender with length
and solid reaction times.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Spot up shooter, has ability and • Needs to stay on his toes and move
confidence to hit deep 3’s laterally with ball handler
• Defensively follows defender off the • Streaky shooter; Shot selection
ball, stays on hip and gets skinny around • Below average ball handler, very simple
off ball screens moves, no variety
• Able to move feet with ball handler and • Wild shots; seems to lose control of
uses length to help recover on step backs body and becomes sloppy
• Uses change of direction/jab to try and • Floaters lead to many shots getting
create space blocked
• Aggressive slasher, versatile finishes • Not an efficient passer
• Shoots floater at elite level
NBA Comparison: Bradley Beal, Norman Powell, Jeremy Lamb
 Tyrese Maxey has the ability to score off spot up shots, dribble pullups, and inside
with crafty layups. His size makes him it difficult to have combo guard capabilities
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along with his inability to be a playmaker, but his defensive skillset and focus can
help him stay on the floor.

Choice #2
Desmond Bane 22 yrs old, G/F, TCU
6’6 215lbs; 6’9 ½ Wingspan
2019-20: 16.6 PPG; 6.3 RPG; 3.9 APG; 1.5 STL; 2.3 TO;
45.2% FG; 44.2% 3FG

Desmond Bane is a 3&D two guard with some


potential as a spot playmaker. He is an extremely
intelligent player off the ball that knows how to use
screens to create advantage situations. On defense,
he rotates well to blow up screening actions. His
frame is also a plus on this end of the floor.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Top tier shooter in this draft class • Negative wingspan
• Comfortable shooting off dribble or • Not much room to grow considering
catch age
• Underrated passer for a wing • Below average first step
• Solid, creative layup package around • Settles for long twos when attacking
the rim off the dribble
• Charge taker on defense • Lackluster ball handling
• Extremely intelligent when navigating • Lacks lateral athleticism, mainly
screens on off agility and speed
NBA Comparison: Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart
 Desmond Bane fits in immediately as a floor spacer. His offensive potential is based
upon his ability to create space with screening actions and create for others in limited
situations. On defense, his negative wingspan and lack of foot speed will hurt him,
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but his strength and IQ should make up for it in some capacity. He may have some
potential to guard some undersized bigs due to his frame.

Choice #3
RJ Hampton 19 yrs old, G, New Zealand
Breakers (NBL)
6’5 188lbs; 6’7 Wingspan
2019-20 (15 games): 8.8 PPG; 3.9 RPG; 2.4 APG; 1.1
STL; 1.5 TO; 40.7% FG; 29.5% 3FG

With a short season due to injuries, RJ


Hampton has fallen from his original
projections, but still is a player that could be
the steal of the draft that teams saw coming out
of high school as a top prospect.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Loves to run in transition • Right hand heavily dominant
• Good athleticism, bounce for alley oops • Unreliable shooter, unable to come off
and transition dunks screen/dribble and consistently knock
• Sneaky speed/quickness, gets off down shots
screens and explodes to the basket • Slow defensively; blow by, low motor
• Good pick and roll ball handler, uses • Slow to see plays develop and read
screens to get position to drive defenses
• Potential as a playmaker on the • Poor footwork on jump shot
defensive end
NBA Comparison: Dante Exum, Michael Carter-Williams
 As one of highest ranked high schoolers, R.J. Hampton did not meet expectations in
the NBL. With a very serious hip flexor injury, Hampton only played 15 professional
games before beginning rehab and training for the NBA draft. Front offices view him
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as a late steal and project to maximize his potential. He showed exception athleticism
when attacking downhill but lacks a lot of the necessary intangibles.

ROUND 2 PICK 31
Choice #1
Zeke Nnaji 19 yrs old, C, Arizona
6’11 240lbs; 7’1” Wingspan
2019-20 (32 games): 16.1 PPG; 8.6 RPG; 0.8 APG; 0.9 BLK; 2.2
TO; 57.0% FG; 29.4% 3FG

Zeke Nnaji has a unique blend of skills for a center. He


has the potential to be a stretch big even though he has
not necessarily shown it yet. He is an active rim runner
that also attacks the offensive glass well. Defensively, he
guards well in space but struggles as a playmaker around
the rim.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Good finisher around the rim • Needs to add muscle
• Runs the floor well • Lacks explosiveness
• Good jumper from mid-range • Struggles to take care of the ball
• Could develop three-point shot • Black hole with the ball
• Can score off the dribble occasionally • Not a rim protector or defensive
• Guards well in space playmaker
NBA Comparison: Jason Thompson, Jordan Hill
 Zeke Nnaji will be a versatile role player. His ceiling is limited by his lack of burst
and explosion as well as the assumed development of his jump shot. He has a very
good foundation and form to his shot. He will be asked to set a ton of screens at the
next level. He also needs to learn how to pass out of the post. On defense, he will be
capable of switching in the pick and roll onto most guards. He is a decent positional
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defender with good hips and footwork, but he may struggle to be much of a rim
deterrent.

Choice #2
Grant Riller 24 yrs old, G, College of
Charleston
6’3 190lbs
2019-20 (31 games): 21.9 PPG; 5.1 RPG; 3.9 APG; 1.6
STL; 3.1 TO; 49.9% FG; 36.2% 3FG

Grant Riller is on of the top scorers in this draft


class. He is a three-level scorer who can get
buckets at will. There are few weaknesses with his
offensive game. Questions come into play with his
age and his defensive capabilities.
Strengths Weaknesses
• One of the best scorers in this class • 24 years old, not much room for
• Elite finisher around the rim (70.6% FG%) improvement
• Played up to his competition • Cannot always hit the big when looking to
• Great balance of volume and efficiency on pass in PNR
the offensive end • Low volume shooting off the ball
• Draws fouls at a high rate • Negative on the defensive end of the floor
• Extremely quick laterally • Will struggle to guard PNR
• May struggle to fit into a low usage role
NBA Comparison: Lou Williams, Seth Curry, Jeremy Lamb
 Grant Riller can fit in as the lead guard off the bench immediately. He is an elite
scorer that must be a defensive focal point. His footwork is elite and allows him to get
off whatever shot he wants. He may struggle to accept a low usage role if he goes to a
playoff contender. He can be a good defender in specific possessions but is rather
inconsistent with his defensive motor and effort.
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Choice #3
Nico Mannion 19 yrs old, G, Arizona
6’3 190lbs, 6’2 ½ ” Wingspan
2019-20 (32 games): 14.0 PPG; 2.5 RPG; 5.3 APG; 1.2
STL; 2.6 TO; 39.2% FG; 32.7% 3FG

Nico Mannion is a polarizing prospect in this


draft class as his best film came from before his
time at Arizona. He should translate to the
league as a secondary facilitator. His shooting
percentages are worrisome. Defensively, the
hope is that he can be average at best. His
length hurts him here.

Strengths Weaknesses
• High IQ player, comfortable passer • May struggle to create space off the dribble
• Solid touch on floater • Long shot release, pulls from chest
• Good at making reads in transition • Undersized 2 guard
• Works well off screening actions, makes • Questionable PNR defender
the right reads typically • Negative wingspan hurts him on defense
• Intelligent positional defender • Needs to cut BF% and add weight
NBA Comparison: Derrick White, Quinn Cook
 Nico Mannion started the season as a potential lottery prospect on a lot of big boards
and mock drafts but has fallen on most if not all boards. His role at the next level will
be as a secondary facilitator. He may struggle to create his own shot off the dribble to
his lack of size and limited athleticism. His defensive is questionable at best due to
his negative length and limited upside as a playmaker. Mannion turning into a
competent defender would be a huge plus.
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Undrafted Free Agent Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Rayshaun Hammonds, 21 years old, 6’9, Georgia
2. Paul Eboua 20 years old, 6’8, Victoria Libertas Pesaro
3. CJ Elleby, 20 years old, 6’6, Washington State

Mavericks Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Courtney Lee $19,139,505
2. J.J Barea $1,737,274
3. Trey Burke (Bubble)
II. Player Option
1. Tim Hardaway Jr. $18,975,000
2. Willie Cauley-Stein $2,286,357
III. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $1,737,274
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($3,891,602)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $25,231,669

Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Courtney Lee (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 40.7%]
For the past two seasons Lee has not been able to stay healthy and stay on the court.
Coming to Dallas as part of the Kristaps Porziņģis deal, Lee has yet to be the
productive player teams expected when he signed his four year $48 million-dollar
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deal. Lee can have his moments as the quality role player he had established being but
his inability to see the floor in his two seasons with the Mavs will leave him finding a
new home next season.
▪ Players to keep:
1. J.J Barea (Projected League Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 81%]
Barea has become Mr. Maverick 2.0 behind Dirk Nowitzki. He has become the vocal
leader, heart and soul, and definition of a role player for this Dallas Mavericks team.
Having just turned 36 years old, it is nearly a formality that Barea will be back on the
Mavs sideline with a veteran’s minimum deal for next season.
2. Trey Burke (Projected Mid-Level Exception)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 45.2%]
After signing with the Mavs after being waived by the 76ers, Trey Burke may have
had the greatest eye raises of the bubble games. In 8 seeding games Burke averaged
12.0 PPG, 3.8 AST, 43.2% 3FG and 52.4% EFG that made it apparent he may have
found a home in Dallas. Once the playoffs began, Burke elevated his game even more
with 12.3 PPG, 47.1% 3FG and 57.6% EFG in their 6-game series versus the Clippers.
This showing roved Burke absolutely has a spot in this league, and the way he fit in
the Mavericks offense makes it a no brainer for Dallas to bring him back for at least
next season.
3. Tim Hardaway Jr. (Player Option $18,975,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 33.8%]
Along with Lee, Hardaway Jr. was a part of the acquisition of Kristaps Porziņģis and
has become a quality piece for this Mavs team. This past season Hardaway set his
career highs in 39.8% 3FG (95th percentile) and 55.0% EFG. His nich as a three-point
specialist was in full affect this past year, shooting 36.2% on pull up threes and 47.8%
on corner threes. He adds tremendous value playing off of a talent such as Luka
Dončić who can collapse the defense and distribute to open shooters. As Hardaway is
heading into the prime of his career, he is showing that he a great off-ball scoring
option. With the current environment of COVID-19 and his contract value of about
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$19 million for the upcoming season, the Mavericks can expect to have Hardaway
back next year as their starting shooting guard.
4. Willie Cauley-Stein (Player Option $2,865,357)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 90.1%]
On Sports Illustrated Dallas, Willie Cauley-Stein made his future for at least next
season very clear. “I bought a house here in Dallas, so I’m here, I’m in the D.” said
Cauley-Stein, making it a guarantee that he will pick up his player option. Although
Cauley-Stein was not a part of the Mavericks bubble run, he will be back for another
season with the team. Coming from Golden State at the trade deadline, Cauley-Stein
only played thirteen games in a Mavs uniform. In his time with both teams, he served
his role as a rebounder and rim protector. In all rebounding categories such as
offensive and defensive rebounds per 75 possessions, put backs, contested rebounding
percentage and rebounding positioning, Cauley-Stein finished in the 97th percentile
and above for every one of those categories. Cauley-Stein also contested 41% of shots
at the rim (100th percentile) with a 21% block rate on contests (90th percentile).
Offensively Cauley-Stein is a quality low pick and roll big finishing in the 86th
percentile on roll impact per 75 possessions and averaging 7.4 screen assists per game.
The Mavs should be excited to get the former Kentucky big man back down low to
add to a dangerous Dallas team.
5. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 66.7%]
When Michael Kidd-Gilchrist became a free agent right after the trade deadline, Dallas
made sure they were the team to sign the former second overall pick. Although there is
a lack of offensive production and scoring from Kidd-Gilchrist, only shooting 50% at
the rim and 25% from three, he is a fantastic rebounder and gritty defender. Kidd-
Gilchrist ranked in the 82nd percentile amongst wings for putbacks per 75 possessions
(1.1). He also does a great job of playing the Steven Adams role on the defensive
glass, focusing on boxing out so his guards can grab the board and run. He was in the
97th percentile amongst wings for box outs. He typically plays in off-ball situations,
hence why he was such a good rim protector for an undersized four. He managed to
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contest 27% of rim attempts when he was on the floor, in the 96th percentile for wings.
Kidd-Gilchrist played light minutes in his 13 games of the regular season but did
appear in all six of the Mavericks postseason games against the Clippers. He can add
value as a defensive wing. Known for his abilities on the defensive end is where Kidd-
Gilchrist was able to be a valuable asset for Rick Carlisle. With his postseason minutes
and Dallas’ determination to sign him, it looks like Kidd-Gilchrest will be returning
for another opportunity with the Mavericks.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Andre Roberson 6’7 210lbs 28 years old, SG/SF, Last Season Salary:
$10,740,740
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000-$8,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 13.5%
Although we have not been able to see much of his production in the past two seasons, Andre
Roberson still has the notoriety of being a fantastic all-around defender. After sitting out the past
two seasons due to injury, concerns will arise this free agency. His return in the bubble showed
teams that he can produce when on the floor. His physical intangibles, being 28 years old, and
his ability to guard multiple positions are his value adds. Roberson will still be an asset for teams
who specifically need defensive help.

Option #2:
Maurice Harkless 6’7 220lbs 27 years old, SF, Current Salary: $11,011,234
Projected Annual Salary: Mid-Level Exception
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 40.9%
Maurice Harkless is a defensive minded wing. On offense, he was a negative on the perimeter.
He was consistently left open and ruined court spacing in LA and in NY. He is extremely
inconsistent as a shooter with two seasons shooting over 38% from three and four seasons
shooting under 30% from three. He has consistently struggled to shoot with volume, as he has
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never even attempted 200 shots from deep. He is a good slasher, shooting 67.7% around the rim
on 47% of his attempts, but that alone does not outweigh his lack of value on the perimeter. He is
a legitimate defensive wing that plays with intensity. Some of that intensity is shown by his
ability to recover loose balls. He recovered 86% of loose ball opportunities (91st percentile
among wings). Harkless is a consistent defensive wing with a high variance offensive game. This
is more of a boom or bust signing that could rely on his perimeter shooting.

Option #3:
Mason Plumlee 6’11 254lbs 30 years old, C, Current Salary: $14,041,096
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000- $10,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 32.6%
Mason Plumlee at 6’11, is an energy rebounder with sneaky good passing ability. Sacramento is
in need of someone who can come in and to provide rebounding and interior defense. Plumlee
could be the perfect 5 to complement the Kings undersized ‘bigs’ & stretch players on their
roster. Plumlee could make a big jump in Sacramento where he would receive more opportunity
then his previous stops. Plumlee’s per 36 stats are impressive: 15 PPG, 10 RPG, 5 APG, 1 BLK
& 1 STL. At 30 years old, he probably will not be their number one target this offseason, but
Plumlee is a reliable backup plan if other options fall through.

Option #4:
Jeff Green 6’8 235lbs 34 years old, C/PF/SF, Current Salary: $439,475
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 69.6%
Jeff Green is a solid veteran presence who provides excellent value for a minimum contract. He
really showed what he can contribute once he got traded to Houston and started receiving
minutes at the five spot. He has shown some streaky shooting in the past, but really took control
in their bubble playoff run. He shot 42.6% from three on 54 attempts. Green has consistently
shown an ability to step up in the playoffs throughout his career (51.9% conversion on corner
threes in the playoffs vs 38.5% conversion rate during the regular season, an increase of
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+13.4%). Green is also good at moving and cutting off the ball, being in the 90th percentile in
Bball Index’s stats regarding off-ball cuts. On the defensive side of the ball, Green was a force in
the playoffs. When guarding isolations, he gave up 0.73 PPP on a FG% of 36% according to
Stats.NBA. He showed versatility during the regular season as well, guarding every position for
at least 13% of his defensive possessions. Green has carved out a new role with Houston as a
legitimate small ball five. This role could translate to a multitude of playoff contenders.

Option #5:
DeMarre Carroll 6’6 215lbs 34 years old, SF/PF, Current Salary: $512,721
Projected Annual Salary: League Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 86.4%
DeMarre Carroll only appeared in 24 games this past season with both the Spurs and the
Rockets. In limited action, Carroll shot a troubling 24.2% from three, a career low by a landslide.
With that being said, Carroll has dealt with injuries in the past two seasons, and that could be one
of the reason for his poor shooting numbers. Before that, he had been an everyday starter with
the ability to guard the forward position and knock down threes at a 34% rate. Looking at
previous career statistics, teams in playoff contention could look to add Carroll for wing depth.

Trade Scenarios
1. Indiana Pacers
Pacers Receiving: Willie Cauley-Stein, Justin Jackson, 2020 2nd
Round Pick (31st overall)
Mavericks Receiving: Myles Turner
The Mavericks showed us what their first season with Luka and Porziņģis both on the floor
together could look like and they did not disappoint. Taking the Clippers to six games in the first
round of the playoffs with injuries to both stars showed that this Mavericks team has the
potential to be scary in the in the final’s contention conversation. At the trade deadline the
Mavericks traded for Willie Cauley-Stein to add a rim protecting and rebounding big to help
interior defense, but he only made an appearance in 13 games before the suspension of the
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season and opting out of the bubble. Assuming Cauley-Stein opts into his player option the
Mavericks could look to improve inside even more with adding Myles Turner. The Pacers are
restricted financially numerous long-term contracts, this move would free up space with both
contracts they would be receiving would expire after next season. The Pacers also only have a
late second round pick in this year’s draft, so adding a near first rounder could be the final piece
to complete this deal.

2. Orlando Magic
Magic Receiving: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Seth Curry, 2020 2nd
Round Pick (31st overall)
Mavericks Receiving: Aaron Gordon
Dallas has been linked to Aaron Gordon from the first time he was eligible for restricted free
agency. With the Magic having too many front court players on the roster as well as no cap space
it may be time for them to shake up the roster. Dallas adding Gordon would move Porziņģis
down to the center position and have Gordon space the floor at the four as well as still the ability
to bring in Cauley-Stein off the bench. This puts both teams better off than they are now adding
value in different ways.

3. Philadelphia 76ers
76ers Receiving: Boban Marjanovic, Seth Curry
Mavericks Receiving: Josh Richardson
This move will benefit both teams in filling voids they experienced this past season. For Dallas,
gaining an elite wing defender with the ability to shoot the three at around 40% is the perfect
combination of what the Mavericks need to surround Luka next to Hardaway. For Philly, they
missed J.J. Reddick’s off ball movement and three-point shooting ability where Seth Curry could
now come in and immediately fill that role. The addition of Boban Marjanovic also adds big man
depth for Philadelphia, as well as reuniting Marjanovic and Tobias Harris to raise team
chemistry.
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DENVER NUGGETS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
XXII. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 23
XXIII. Team Needs
a. Best Player Available
i. The Nuggets may be the deepest team in the NBA. They have young talent
and veterans at each position. For this offseason, the Nuggets will look to
retain much of their core while hopefully, adding one or two more pieces
for the next season. Look for Denver to add the best available players in
the offseason.
b. Versatile Forward
i. With the looming free agency of Paul Millsap and Jerami Grant, the
Nuggets may have to add another big wing to offset their loss(es). Michael
Porter Jr. has proven to be a solid offensive 4 but on defense, he has been
a liability.
XXIV. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Nuggets Free Agency
XXII. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XXIII. Free Agent Targets
XXIV. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 23
Choice #1
Aleksej Pokusevski 18 yrs old, F, Olympiacos
7’0 208lbs, 7’3” Wingspan
2019-20 (11 games): 10.8 PPG; 7.9 RPG; 3.1 APG; 1.8 BLK;
1.8 TO; 40.4% FG; 32.1% 3FG

Aleksej Pokusevski has a unique skill set. He is the


stereotypical unicorn that teams covet and members
of the media hype up. He is a wing in the body of a
big. He has a lot of potential as a somewhat
unknown commodity but has also suffered concerns
about his mentality and injury history. Workouts
will make or break his stock.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Shoots well of movement, rise vertically • Needs to add weight to his frame
quick, squares up to basket • Inconsistent shooter
• Shot looks good off catch and off dribble • Struggles to make angled passes
• Unbridled confidence as a scorer • Cannot finish around the rim
• Good passing IQ for a big, outlet potential • Sets ghost screens
• Rim protector, shot blocker • Low motor in POA defense
• Strong instincts when attacking the glass • Gambles for steals frequently
NBA Comparison: Kristaps Porzingis, Dragan Bender
 Aleksej Pokusevski is a boom or bust project. His draft stock is extremely varied
amongst media members and teams. He will be a wing initially as he does not offer
much regarding a post-game or slasher. Motor and attitude are big swing skills for
him. His buyout clause from Olympiacos may push some teams away as a team will
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have to pay the maximum allowed $750k if they want to bring him over immediately
to work on his development. He may need some time in a G League program.

Choice #2
Jaden McDaniels 20 yrs old, F, Washington
6’9 200lbs; 7’0” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 13.0 PPG; 5.8 RPG; 2.1 APG; 1.4
BLK; 40.5% FG; 33.9% 3FG

Jaden McDaniels is an athletic forward with


potential to grow, but not much dominance in
any individual skill. He has a unique scoring
package with his ability to score off the dribble
and playmaking. Defensively, he has potential
as a playmaker in passing lanes and rim
protection. He offers versatility as a switchable
defender.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Fits in as a modern positionless player • Extremely inconsistent and inefficient as
• Shoots well off the dribble in the a scorer
midrange • Struggled with turnovers, having a
• His shot may be tough to block with a negative AST:TO ratio
high release point • Extremely poor, attitude, body language
• Rebounded well for someone who • Needs to add size to his frame
guarded mainly on perimeter • Good athlete with poor explosion, quick
• Makes the game look effortless at times twitch athleticism
• Potential as a defensive playmaker • Struggled with fouls on defense

NBA Comparison: Terrence Ross, Derrick Jones Jr


 Jaden McDaniels is the boom or bust generalization brought to real life. He has the
potential to be an elite scorer off the dribble. The playoffs continuously show that
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scoring off the dribble is the skill to covet. The possibility of a bust comes from his
lack of effort, consistency, and maturity (5 technical fouls his fr. year). McDaniels
needs to end up with a franchise with a strong history of developing prospects.

Choice #3
Isaiah Stewart 19 yrs old, C,
Washington
6’9 250lbs; 7’4” Wingspan
2019-20 (32 games): 17.0 PPG; 8.8 RPG; 0.8
APG; 2.1 BLK; 2.2 TO; 57% FG; 25% 3FG
Isaiah Stewart is a prototypical small
ball five with a high motor. He is
coming into the league with elite length
and strength. He excels on the offensive
glass as an energizer bunny. Potential to
improve comes with a consistent jump
shot.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Top player in this draft in regard to • Guarding the PNR will be a problem for
off court value and team interviews him
• High motor rim runner • Jump shot is not there
• Nice touch in mid post • Blackhole on offense (0.4:1.0 AST:TO)
• Uses NBA ready frame to draw fouls • Only 15% of his offensive possessions
at a high rate were PNR
• 19 years old • Limited ceiling, rim running centers are
• Can attack mismatches in the post by replaceable
playing bully ball • Poor footwork, lacks quick vertical and
poor first step when attacking downhill
NBA Comparison: Antonio Davis, Montrezl Harrel
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 Isaiah Stewart is a high motor five man. He is a great runner in straight line situations,
namely transition possessions. He has exceeded all teams’ expectations as far as draft
interviews go. His ceiling will be determined by how he improves as a shooter. There
are also questions regarding his ability to guard perimeter players in space.

Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Lamar Stevens, 23 years old, 6’8, Penn State
2. Freddie Gillespie, 23 years old, 6’9, Baylor
3. Sam Merrill, 24 years old, 6’5, Utah State

Jazz Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Paul Millsap $38,199,000
2. Mason Plumlee $21,061,644
3. Noah Vonleh $2,400,000
4. Troy Daniels $1,620,564
II. Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
1. Torrey Craig $2,500,000
III. Player Option
1. Jerami Grant $9,346,153
IV. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. P.J. Dozier $1,762,796
2. Monte Morris $1,723,707
3. Keita Bates-Diop $1,663,861
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($3,984,546)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $7,320,421
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Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Paul Millsap (Projected $10,000,000-$15,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 58.8%]
Paul Millsap, now 35 years old, will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. The
6’7 power forward is a darling of advanced analytics, more specifically on the
defensive end where his defensive RAPTOR rating was +1.8 last regular season. He is
an active on-ball defender as he averaged almost one steal on-ball per 75 possessions,
in the 99th percentile amongst bigs. He is a disruptor off the ball as well, as he
averaged 2.6 deflections per 75 possessions, in the 78th percentile amongst bigs.
Millsap has been relegated to more of a spot-up role offensively, with Denver opting
to go all in on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray’s playmaking in the half court. He did a
good job with those spot up possessions as he averaged 1.14 points per possession in
spot up actions (88th percentile amongst bigs). This shrinking role on offense and the
surging Jerami Grant are the main reasons the Nuggets should look to part ways with
the aging Millsap. They could look to bring him back through bird rights but risk
crossing into the luxury tax if they wish to retain Millsap plus the rest of their core.
2. Noah Vonleh (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 75%]
Noah Vonleh, the former ninth overall selection in the 2014 Draft, has not been able to
find his role in the NBA. The 25-year-old spent much of the 2019-2020 season as a
bench player for Denver and figures to not be brought back for the 2020-21 campaign.
In seven games with Denver, he averaged 4.3 minutes per game and saw a total of
three minutes in the playoffs. Vonleh’s projected minimum salary will attract some
suitors but for him to get his career back on track he should look for a less desirable
location to maximize his playing time.
3. Keita Bates-Diop (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 48.4%]
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Keita Bates-Diop is a young player that has not gotten much playing time in his NBA
career. Bates-Diop’s unguaranteed contract is not expected to be guaranteed by the
Nuggets and he will become an unrestricted free agent. For Denver, he only played 24
playoff minutes. The 24-year-old small forward will look to get his career back on
track and improvement on the defensive end should be his top priority. For his career
Bates-Diop has a -2.2 average DBPM and has not posted a true shooting percentage
above 53.9%.
4. Troy Daniels (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 33.7%]
The sharpshooting Troy Daniels will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason and
will have suitors. Unfortunately for Daniels, the Nuggets should have better options
for an off the bench marksmen and he will not be brought back. During his time with
Denver, he played in 12 games and posted 19 DNPs, including the playoffs. Daniels,
29 years old, will be looking to find a more permanent home, as he has been on five
teams in six years. Daniels has eclipsed the 40.0% mark from three four times in his
seven-year career.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Jerami Grant (Projected League $12,000,000-$15,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 1.4%]
Jerami Grant has enjoyed a surge in production this past season. The ultra-athletic
power forward showcased all his abilities in the bubble. During the playoffs, Grant
was Denver’s third best player and was an asset on both sides of the floor. Over the
past two seasons, Grant has shown consistently on good volume from three, shooting
39.1% on 545 attempts. He is a plus player in low volume isolations and at finishing
around the rim. He is a competent finisher around the rim and excels at drawing
contact. He does not add much value as a playmaker, but shot finishing is more of his
offensive role and not shot creation. Defensively, Grant was given the toughest
assignment in each of the Los Angeles series, guarding LeBron James and Kawhi
Leonard for extended periods of time in each series. Impressively, Grant posted a +1.4
defensive RAPTOR rating despite these tough matchups, further validating his rise on
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the defensive end. Offensively, Grant was his usual self, shooting five attempts from
beyond the arc per game and acting as a reliable floor spacer in the Nugget’s offense.
2. Torrey Craig (Projected Mid-Level Exception)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 0.3%]
Torrey Craig is an interesting player. The 6’7 wing has enough size at 220lbs to be
versatile on defense and guard positions two through four and has nice shooting form.
These physical attributes have unfortunately not translated to on court success. He is
exceptional at finishing around the rim at 73.9%, even though it was on low volume
(3.3 attempts per 75 possessions). He has rather poor shot selection from three, with
only 15% of his threes being considered open even though he does not provide much
gravity as a wing. Even with that, he was average as far as efficiency goes with a TS%
of 56% and 1.04 PPP in spot up situations. He is a poor play maker, not adding much
value there. He is in the top tier of wings when it comes to crashing the offensive
glass. He averaged 2 offensive rebounds per 75 possessions and did a great job of
chasing loose balls and long rebounds. Craig registered a -2.8 defensive RAPTOR
rating in the playoffs this past season. Though, he is projected to be a mid-level
exception free agent this offseason, Craig may not see a steady market. The most
likely result is that Craig will return to the Nuggets on his $2,500,000 qualifying offer
and try to improve his 3&D statistics in 2020-21.
3. P.J. Dozier (Non-Guaranteed $1,723,796)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 2 Year Deal: 63.8%]
The South Carolina product, P.J. Dozier, will have to wait and see if the Denver
Nuggets will guarantee his contract this offseason. Dozier, a long athletic wing,
showed some promise in the bubble for the Nuggets, having to play the role of a guard
as Denver waited for their guards to join them in Orlando. Dozier shows the ability to
handle the ball, make smart passes and be an end to end defender that can stick with
smaller players. The advanced metrics were not a fan of Dozier’s bubble play,
awarding him a -6.3 total RAPTOR rating but, there were enough flashes that Denver
will be more than happy to keep him around for the 2020-21 season.
4. Monte Morris (Non-Guaranteed $1,762,707)
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Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 92.3%


The reliable Monte Morris will have his contract guaranteed this offseason by Denver.
Morris has proven to be one of the most solid backup point guards in the association
and posted a +0.9 offensive RAPTOR rating last regular season with Denver.
Defensively, Morris is a bit limited due to his smaller frame and has not had much of
an impact. Offensively, Morris has shown the ability to run the show while Jamal
Murray sits and scores with respectable efficiency from three (37.8%) and is a stellar
foul shooter (84.3%). He is one of the best players in the league at taking care of the
ball. In 158 career games, he only has 106 turnovers. With his cap hit only being $1.7
million, Denver will be getting great value at the backup point guard spot.
5. Mason Plumlee (Projected $5,000,000-$10,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 32.6%]
Mason Plumlee has been a pleasant surprise for the Nuggets. The seven-year veteran
has become a key piece for the Nuggets bench unit and his sneaky athleticism has
allowed him to give problems for opposing teams on both ends. In the playoffs,
Plumlee saw his total RAPTOR rating go up 2.1 points from his regular season mark
of -0.8 but saw the largest change on defense, moving from a pedestrian -0.5 in the
regular season to a top 20 defensive player in the playoffs, posting a +3.0. He did an
especially good job of defending in space. He was target in pick and roll switches
frequently and held his own. This uptick on defense will help Plumlee, who is widely
thought to be an offensive center around the league, when it comes time for free
agency.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Justin Holiday 6’6 180lbs 31 years old, SG, Current Salary: $4,767,000
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000-$8,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 50.6%
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Just Holiday is a solid low volume two guard. His role offensively is to move off the ball and
gets shots off on the perimeter. Almost 70% of his shots came from three, where he was
extremely efficient. He shot 42.4% from three while being a perimeter focus for defenses. Only
19% of his threes were considered open shots according to Bball Index. He cannot create those
shots for himself but plays well off of a ball dominant guard (97% of his threes were assisted).
Holiday really does not provide much else on the offensive end besides that spacing. He only
takes 2 shots at the rim per 75 possessions and is very passive in his passing. Defensively, he is
very versatile, spending significant time guarding the two through four. He is a very active
perimeter defender that battles every possession. He is a superior interior defender compared to
other guards. This allows his team to make more rotations because the backside can rotate to rim
protection as well. Holiday is a prototypical 3&D player.

Option #2:
Courtney Lee 6’5 215lbs, 35 years old, SG, Current Salary: $12,759,670
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 40.7%
Courtney Lee is now 35 and has not played over 60 games since 2017-18. The guard has had a
very solid NBA career and could prove helpful to a contending team that need reliable 3&D play
from a wing. This year Lee played in 24 games and was very effective, posting a +1.5 DBPM
and shot 44.7% on two attempts a game from three, proving Lee still can be a solid contributor to
a contending team. Volume is still a concern, so he is probably best suited to fit in at the end of a
rotation. Lee is projected to take a minimum contract, and he if he can stay healthy, he will be
able to be a solid contributor off the bench for an NBA team in 2020-21.

Option #3:
Harry Giles 6’10 240 22 years old, PF/C, Current Salary: $2,578,800
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 64.9%
With only two years in the league, we have only seen a small sample size of what Harry Giles
has to offer at the professional level. Coming out of high school as the #1 recruit in the class of
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2016, Giles was viewed as a highly talented power forward. After tearing his ACL for the second
time in his life, Giles missed most of his collegiate time at Duke. Although he declared after not
playing, he was still viewed with the potential of his former #1 status. Things never really
panned out Sacramento with the two sides never fully meshing. Giles averaged just 14 minutes
per game, 7.0 PPG, and 4.0 RPG. Although his production does not seem like much, he is still 21
years old with plenty of upside.

Option #4:
Nerlens Noel 6’10 220lbs 26 years old, C/PF, Current Salary: $2,028,594
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000-$10,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 48.4%
Noel is a rim running big who provides good rim protection. His offensive game is extremely
limited, this past season 61% of his field goals came from 0-3ft from the hoop. He relies on
others to create for him, lob opportunities, pick n’ rolls to the rim, and running the floor. This
season marked his career best VORP of 1.5 & his career best win shares of 5.

Option #5:
Alec Burks 6’6 215lbs, 29 years old, SF/SG, Current Salary: $2,320,044
Projected Annual Salary: Mid-Level Exception
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 72.1%
Alec Burks has turned himself into a reliable bench scoring option. On offense, Burks had a +1.2
offensive RAPTOR rating. While on Golden State, Burks proved himself to be a playmaker as
well. In Golden State, Burks averaged 16.1 PPG and 3.1 APG on respectable efficiency. This
level of production can be sustainable if Burks is given the keys to a team’s bench unit and
allowed to take the shots, he took in Golden State. Defensively, Burks is quite frankly a liability.
At 6’6, Burks should be able to give smaller wings some issues due to his length, but the effort
has been nonexistent. It is all about fit for Burks this offseason and hopefully he can find a role
where he can flourish.
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Trade Scenarios
1. Houston Rockets
Rockets Receiving: Gary Harris, 2020 1st Round Pick (23rd
overall)
Nuggets Receiving: Robert Covington, Danuel House
The Nuggets may need power forwards if they lose Paul Millsap and Jerami Grant to free
agency. In the event of this, this deal with Houston provides them and instant fix at the four,
maybe even an upgrade. Robert Covington is one of the most versatile defenders in the league
and has shot the ball well in the past four seasons. Covington posted a +2.2 defensive RAPTOR
rating in the playoffs this past season and that was while absorbing post ups from Anthony
Davis. Danuel House is the other piece of this deal and would provide another shooter for
Denver off the bench. For Houston, this trade signals the end of their extreme small ball
experiment. They gain a solid wing in Harris and get back their 2020 first rounder that they lost
in the Covington deal.

2. New Orleans Pelicans


Pelicans Receiving: Gary Harris, P.J. Dozier, 2020 1st Round Pick
(23rd overall)
Nuggets Receiving: Jrue Holiday
In this deal, the Nuggets are upgrading the shooting guard spot while giving up very little. Gary
Harris has proven to be underwhelming offensively and has regressed each year since signing his
current deal. P.J. Dozier has shown flashes on defense and would be another versatile wing for
Pelicans. Jrue Holiday improves the Nuggets vastly as he is one of the most underrated defenders
in the league. He also slots in perfectly as a secondary ball handler to Jamal Murray in the
Nugget’s high screen and roll offense with Nikola Jokic. For New Orleans, this is a lateral move
but gives them more opportunity for their younger pieces as they look to build off some
individual success of last year.

3. Washington Wizards
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Wizards Receiving: Gary Harris, Michael Porter Jr., 2020 1st


Round Pick (23rd overall), 2023 1st Round Pick (Top 5 protected)
Nuggets Receiving: Bradley Beal
This deal is the Nuggets pushing their chips to the middle of the table. This move gives them
three legitimate stars on roster with Bradley Beal, Nikola Jokic, and Jamal Murray. They have
another star who can get their shot on the offensive end and Beal is an underrated defender. For
Washington, this deal gets them a legit young prospect with Michael Porter Jr, a useful wing in
Gary Harris, and two draft selections. The 2023 pick is valuable as it is anticipated to include
both high school and collegiate athletes.
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DETROIT PISTONS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
XXV. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 7
XXVI. Team Needs
a. Best Player Available
i. Detroit is in a tough slot at seven with little idea who will be
there when it is their time to pick. Last year, the Pistons took
Sekou Doumbouya who was the best talent on the board, so
again the belief is Detroit will target best player higher than
best fit.
b. High character not just talent
i. Piston’s GM Troy Weaver recently said, “We don’t draft
players. We draft people.”
XXVII. Draft Scenarios
a. Keep pick 7
b. Trade Back
XXVIII. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Pistons Free Agency
V. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
VI. Free Agent Targets
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VII. Trade Scenarios


ROUND 1 PICK 7
Choice #1
LaMelo Ball 19 yrs old, G, Illawarra (NBL)
6’7 180lbs; 6’9” Wingspan
2019-20 (12 games): 17.0 PPG; 7.6 RPG; 6.8 APG; 1.6 STL;
2.5 TO; 37.5% FG; 25.0% 3FG

LaMelo Ball is the biggest name in this draft class. He


is one of the best playmakers in this draft class as
well. He was known for his scoring numbers early in
his career but has struggled with efficiency through
amateur play and in the NBL. Defensively, his effort
and frame are legitimate concerns.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Elite passing vision • Poor shot selection, does not finish well
(7.9 AST per 36) inside, inefficient shooter
• Quick shot release, can get it off from • Danced too much on perimeter
virtually anywhere • Pushes his shot on jumper, hits straight
• Confidence to take any shot backboard frequently
• Good rebounder, helps push the ball in • Gives up on defensive possessions
transition • Worst PNR defender in NBL, cannot
• Solid footwork and quick hands on defense switch
• High center of gravity
NBA Comparison: Lonzo Ball+, Ricky Rubio
 LaMelo Ball has a higher ceiling than his brother due to his superior ability to create
in the half court. Scoring is a huge swing skill for him as it could be one of his biggest
assets or one of his biggest weaknesses. He will be a negative on the defensive end of
the floor for at least the first few years of his NBA career because he was the worst
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PNR defender in the NBL. His playmaking is one elite skill that he will be able to fall
back on no matter what.

Choice #2
Killian Hayes 19 yrs old, PG, ULM
(Bundesliga)
6’5 195lbs; 6'8 ¼” Wingspan
2019-20 (10 games): 12.8 PPG; 2.3 RPG; 6.2 APG; 1.5
STL; 45.5% FG; 39% 3FG

Killian Hayes is considered by some a top 3


guard in this draft with the potential to go in the
top 5. His playmaking ability and raw scoring
ability makes him one of the more intriguing
guards in the draft. Having not played college
ball his ability to compete against NBA talent is
yet to be seen.
Strengths Weaknesses
• High passing IQ, can make any pass out • Unnecessary risky passes out of downhill
of the pick and roll, and does a good job drives
of drawing attention when attacking • Kills dribble going to right
downhill • Ball watches, struggles to move well off
• Underrated burst when attacking ball
downhill • Low sample size of free throws, but
• Creates space with footwork well excels at hitting free throws
• Solid change of pace and special • Struggles to shoot off the catch, issues lie
awareness in footwork.
• High confidence when looking for shot, • Average perimeter defender at best
solid touch and range with floater
NBA Comparison: DeAngelo Russell, Manu Ginobili, Goran Dragic
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 Killian fits what a rebuilding team is looking for in a guard pairing for the future. He
has shown leadership ability and ability to be a floor general. He will need vast
improvement on making defenders weary of his weak hand.

Choice #3
Tyrese Haliburton 20 yrs old, G, Iowa State
6’5 175lbs; 6’8 Wingspan
2019-20: 15.2 PPG; 5.9 RPG; 6.5 APG; 2.5 STL; 2.8 TO;
50.4% FG; 41.9% 3FG

Tyrese Haliburton is a lengthy, playmaking guard.


His projected fit is as a secondary facilitator. He
operates well both on and off the ball.

Strengths Weaknesses
• High value passer looking to create for • Forces passing at times, tries to make
others, lets the play happen flashy play
• Best action is pick and roll, changes pace • Inconsistent when attacking in pick and
well in this action roll, allows defender to push him away
• Solid floor general from screen
• Confident shooter with solid touch in paint • Shot form/release point, needs to be sped
plus midrange up, inconsistent off the dribble
• Length leads to potential as defensive • Needs to add some weight/strength
playmaker • Falls for pump fakes, leaves feet, needs to
• Solid pack line defender that reads passing stay down and play with a hand up in front
lanes well
NBA Comparison: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dante Exum, Lonzo Ball
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 Tyrese Haliburton’ length and ability to get teammates involved gives him great
upside of what he can do with even more talented teammates. For Phoenix, adding
Haliburton to a team with Devin Booker and company he can greatly impact this team
right away. Learning from the savviness and creativity of Ricky Rubio, scoring
prowess of Booker, and even defensive ability from Jevon Carter.

Undrafted Free Agent Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Markus Howard, 21 years old, 5’11, Marquette
2. Josh Hall, 20 years old, 6’9, Moravian Prep
3. Karim Mane, 20 years old, 6’5, Vanier College

Pistons Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Brandon Knight $23,465,625
2. John Henson $18,491,552
3. Langston Galloway $11,000,000
4. Jordan McRae $1,737,274
5. Christian Wood $1,737,274
II. Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
1. Thon Maker $4,642,800
III. Team Option
1. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk $1,663,861
IV. Player Option
1. Tony Snell $12,178,571
V. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Bruce Brown Jr. $1,663,861
2. Justin Patton $1,663,861
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3. Khyri Thomas $1,663,861


 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): $36,412,949
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $51,801,961

Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Brandon Knight (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 61.5%]
Although Brandon Knight has shown flashes of scoring prowess and potential when
healthy, his inability to stay on the court is one reason there is no reason for Detroit to
keep him apart of their roster. Acquired from Cleveland in the Andre Drummond deal,
Knight seemed always a contract take on. With constant injury issues and career 41.1
FG% and 35.3 3FG%, Knight does not fit what the Pistons are looking for as they
move forward with the future of their roster, even with Knight’s free agent market to
be slim.
2. John Henson (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 75.8%]
Very similar to Knight, John Henson is another player whose career has been plagued
with injuries. With flashes of production in his tenure with the Bucks, Henson has not
played a full season since 2017. Along with Knight, he was acquired mid-year from
Cleveland to meet salary numbers. With his contact coming off the books this season
and the Pistons still having Blake Griffin and hoping to retain Christian Wood, Henson
is going to be one of the big man that is leaving the Motor City.
3. Langston Galloway (Projected $10,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 3.2%]
In what was arguably his best season to date, Langston Galloway averaged 10.3 PPG
on 43.5 FG% and 39.9 3FG% with an EFG% at 57.7%. He has shown that he does not
offer much variety in his shooting as he shot 41% from three when shooting off the
catch, compared to 23.5% off the dribble. Galloway has shown he has a spot on a
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roster in the league as a role player off the bench. He does not offer much on defense,
but it is pretty apparent that any offer his way is for his shooting. Teams may be
willing to pay around Galloway’s qualifying offer number ($11 million), but for
Detroit, that number will come to be too high of a price tag for the 29-year-old.
4. Jordan McRae (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 83%]
When the Pistons grabbed the rights to Jordan McRae off the waiver wire, they were
hoping he could provide quality minutes for them off the bench. McRae was only able
to play in four games for Detroit, but in those four games he did not show anything to
give reason that the Pistons should offer him a contract for next season. While he did
average 11.8 PPG, his EFG was a dreadful 36.0% and only 18.8% from behind the
three-point line. With those metrics and his career statistics, it looks like the very small
sample size given from McRae is enough for the Pistons to continue without him.
5. Thon Maker (Projected $3,000,000-$6,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 38%]
Thon Maker had lots of raw potential and upside when he was a lottery selection in
2016. Since then, this project has seemed to be one to discard. Maker has yet to be
impactful on either end of the floor. Never averaging more than 5.0 PPG, 50.0 FG%,
35.0 3FG%, and 1.0 BLK, Maker’s services are no longer needed for a Pistons team
looking to move forward in a different direction.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Christian Wood (Projected: $15,000,000-$20,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 5 Year Deal: 54.5%]
In his first real showing in the NBA, Christian Wood turned many eyes toward him
and was arguably the best part of the Pistons season. After 54 games over three years
and four different teams, Wood earned the final roster spot on the Pistons in training
camp and is now going to cash in after a major breakout season. Wood showed his
ability to play inside, behind the arc, and his athleticism on both sides of the floor.
After the Pistons giving Wood his chance and him capitalizing, the Pistons could
really make him a vocal point of their future. He is a major plus amongst analytical
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metrics. He shot 40% from three off the catch (79th percentile amongst bigs), averaged
1.4 points per 75 possessions over the average roll man (99th percentile amongst bigs),
and took three unassisted shots at the rim per 75 possessions (83rd percentile amongst
bigs). With Wood expected to draw big numbers in free agency, the Pistons should use
the available cap space they have to make him their top priority to keep this offseason.
Wood is only scratching the surface of the potential he has that can help move the
Pistons in the right direction.
2. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (Team Option $1,663,861)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 90.9%]
In his first full season in the league, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk saw serious playing time
and what it is to be not just a player, but a starter in this league. Mykhailiuk started 27
of the 56 games he saw action in this past season and shot the three at a 40.4% over
the season. He also showed some spot possessions of facilitation, especially when
attacking downhill. He created assisted buckets on 14% percent of drives to the rim
(88th percentile amongst wings). On defense, he does not offer much value due to his
limited athletisicm, but he shows a lot of grit. He recovered 89% of loose balls (98th
percentile). He will have a spot on the roster. With the current state of the Pistons and
looking at their future, the 22-year-old wing can help be a part of the future of this
team coming off a season that resulted in a Rising Stars Game selection.
3. Tony Snell (Player Option $12,178,571)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 0.1%]
For Snell, it is almost certain that he will pick up his $12 million-dollar option for the
upcoming season. Throughout his career, Snell has been a very consistent reliable
player. He has played nearly every game in seven seasons along with averaging about
40.0 FG% and 7.0 PPG. In a year that saw the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic, it
is unlikely Snell takes his chances in the free agent market.
4. Bruce Brown Jr. (Non-Guaranteed 1,663,861)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 89.3%]
The former second rounder from Miami has shown to be a very valuable player for
this Pistons team. Starting 56 games in his rookie campaign and 43 this past season,
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the Pistons have shown their consistent trust and reliance on Bruce Brown over these
past two seasons. Brown has also shown some comfortability in the lineup while
shooting 7.7 shots a game up from 4.2 last season. Brown needs to continue to develop
his three-point shooting ability to make it in this league, but similar to Justin Patton his
non-guaranteed contract makes it a no brainer for the Pistons to keep the starting
guard.
5. Justin Patton (Non-Guaranteed 1,663,861)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 59.1%]
While Justin Patton does not have much to show in the NBA since being drafted in
2017, the Detroit Pistons signed Patton to have him be their center rotation for the
upcoming season. The Pistons seem committed to the former 16th overall pick despite
the injury issues. Having just turned 23 years old, the former Creighton big man can
still have a bright future ahead especially with a young Detroit team looking to reset.
With his non-guaranteed deal Patton has a very club friendly contract that can greatly
benefit the team.
6. Khyri Thomas (Non-Guaranteed $1,663,861)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 44.1%]
This could be Khyri Thomas’ last chance with the Pistons. The former second round
guard has still yet to show any flashes of what the Pistons were hoping to get from him
when trading up in the second round of the 2017 draft to take him. Khyri has fallen far
behind Bruce Brown in production and with a non-guaranteed deal, this could be his
last stint to prove his worth after spending most of his career in the G-League.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Fred VanVleet 6’1 200lbs 26 years old, PG, Last Season Salary: $9,346,153
Projected Annual Salary: $18,000,000-$25,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 20.9%
Fred VanVleet is a high-volume shooter from behind the arch who shot 44% on catch and shoot
threes. According to Bball Index, his shooting gravity is in the 92nd percentile. He may struggle
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as a team’s primary as he is not a high value player in isolations (eFG% of 32.4% in isolations)
and when attacking the rim. Playing him with a solid roll man would allow him to create some in
the pick and roll. VanVleet is an underrated defender, who typically matched up with an
opponent’s primary creator. He matches up surprisingly well against both point and shooting
guards, even though he is undersized at 6’1. He is an active defender in passing lanes, getting 4.2
deflections per 75 possessions, and does a good job of turning those into advantage opportunities
on the other end of the floor.

Option #2:
Joe Harris 6’6 220lbs, 29 years old, SF/SG, Current Salary: $7,666,667
Projected Annual Salary: $15,000,000-$20,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 18.4%
Joe Harris is an asset strictly because of his ability to shoot the ball. He moves extremely well
without the ball, being near the top of the league in every off-ball movement metric. Teams must
respect him because of his extremely high shooting percentages. He shot 50.8% on corner 3s, so
teams must focus on forcing him off of the line. Due to this, he has shown improvement as a
finisher around the rim, hitting 65% of his attempts around the rim. Harris is a high IQ player
that plays strictly within his role on the offensive end of the floor. He opens up the floor to run
more creative ATOs as well as unique transition sets. Defensively, Harris is a negative. He
struggles to guard both on the perimeter and on the interior. He typically guards the worst wing
on the floor, and still struggles against them. Teams do not appear to seek him out in switches.
Harris provides enough value on offense to negate his defensive woes.

Option #3:
DJ Augustin 5’11 185lbs 32 years old, PG, Current Salary: $7,250,000
Projected Annual Salary: Mid-Level Exception
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 69.2%
DJ Augustin is a solid veteran point guard. When on the ball, his value comes from attacking
downhill plus running half court sets. He averaged 0.94 PPP as a pick and roll ball handler, good
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for the 76th percentile of point guards. He was not great at getting all the way downhill and
finishing but uses that advantage to facilitate for others. Augustin’s three-point percentage might
not show it, but Augustin is a great three-point shooter, specifically off the catch (46.5%). He did
not get the chance to in Orlando, but he would fit well as a secondary creator alongside a ball
dominant shot creator. Defensively, he does not add much value. He is a negative on that end of
the floor according to basically every metric, so that aspect of his game cannot be expected to
change at this point in his career. Using Augustin in the right role would provide a legitimate
veteran presence at the backup point guard spot.

Option #4:
De’Anthony Melton 6’2 200lbs 22 years old, PG, Last Season Salary:
$1,416,852 Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 93.9%
In two seasons on two separate teams, De’Anthony Melton has been a very quality role player.
At only 22 years old, he has become consistent with about 20 minutes per game with a strong
defensive IQ. Melton posted a respectable 105.0 defensive rating this past season. He had nearly
a 2.0 to 1.0 assist to turnover ratio and three assists per game. He is an aggressive passer that
seeks out passes to shooters and cutters. Melton must show improvement in the shooting respects
with a 28.6% 3FG last season. He needs to improve specifically off the dribble as he shot 17.6%
from three on pull up attempts, while shooting 38.3% on catch and shoot attempts. Defensively,
he is immaculate in passing lanes as he averaged 4.4 deflections per 75 possessions, in the 98th
percentile amongst guards. Being a projected minimum Melton could come in and be a great
rotational backup point guard for the team able to sign him.

Option #5:
Aron Baynes 6’10 260lbs, 33 years old, C/PF, Current Salary: $5,453,280
Projected Annual Salary: $8,000,000-$12,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 17.5%
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Aaron Baynes is a bruiser off the bench. In Phoenix, he showed potential as a floor spacer. He
went on an 11-game stretch shooting 47% from deep. He was inconsistent though, also going
through a 28-game stretch where he delt with injury and shot 25% from deep. His value depends
on which stretches in his season are more valuable to future suiters. He has surprising value in
isolations. While only averaging 1.7 isolations per 75 possessions, he had an eFG% of 61.1%
(91st percentile amongst bigs). He is a below average finisher around the rim, but still provide
some value in the pick and roll as a passer out of the short roll and a threat to pop. His ability to
pop forces teams out of drop coverage. On defense, his stats do not pop in any facet, but he is an
enforcer that plays hard every possession. Off the court, he is beloved in locker rooms and has a
cult following amongst fans.

Trade Scenarios
1. Boston Celtics
Celtics Receiving: 2020 1st Round Pick (7th overall)
Pistons Receiving: 2020 1st Round Picks (14th, 26th, 30th overalls)
The Boston Celtics are coming off another strong season with an Eastern Conference Finals
appearance. Boston has 15 players on the books next season as well as looking to add more
immediate impact to win now instead of three first rounders who will spend most of their time in
the G-League. For Boston moving up to 7th overall to get a more “ready now” player and not
have to worry about the excess number of players on their roster. For Detroit although picking
the best player available at 7th overall can help them grow a young nucleus, adding three first
rounders to fill at their roster with young talent as well as find out what their future could look
like past the 2020-21 season.
2. Brooklyn Nets
Nets Receiving: Tony Snell
Pistons Receiving: Taurean Prince, 2020 2nd Round Pick
For the Brooklyn Nets, this trade frees up future cap space and gets them under the luxury tax.
Tony Snell is a stretch option if the Nets want to clear more space. Taurean Prince is a solid wing
for the Detroit Pistons. Prince could be flipped as well as he is on a team friendly deal. Basically,
Detroit receives a second-round pick because they would be giving Brooklyn some cap relief.
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3. Phoenix Suns:
Suns Receiving: Blake Griffin
Pistons Receiving: Kelly Oubre Jr., Jalen Lecque
Detroit has been handcuffed with Blake Griffin’s $36.5 million-dollar contract over the next two
seasons. This trade releases their cap struggle and allows them to fully commit to the new vision
of general manager Troy Weaver. Kelly Oubre is on an expiring contract and is a possible trade
asset. Jalen Lecque, a 20-year-old guard, is added to fit salary requirements, as well as
continuing the trend of adding young bodies to the roster. Although Griffin may have greater
talent, he has never fit in the Motor City. Only playing a total of 18 games this past season,
Weaver is ready to move on from this issue he inherited. For Phoenix, they are looking to add a
piece to put them over and into the playoffs. If Griffin can stay healthy, he is a piece to put next
to Deandre Ayton and Devin Booker that could help them rise up in the West. Oubre did not
make the trip into the bubble for the Suns undefeated bubble run and, in the final year of his deal,
the Suns have been looking to move him.
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GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
XXIX. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 2
b. Round 2: Picks 48 and 51
XXX. Team Needs
a. Depth
i. The Golden State Warriors are perhaps the most intriguing team
in the NBA entering this offseason. After taking a year off from
contention, they have the #2 overall pick and a top-heavy roster
that is in desperate need of depth. The pick at two should
provide them an opportunity to pick up a solid plug and play
player or the chance to trade out of the pick to accumulate some
established talent to add to what hopes to be a contending roster
in 2020-21.
b. 3&D Wing
i. The Warriors already have the backcourt figured out with the
splash brothers Klay and Steph penciled in along with the
center position after newcomer Marquese Chriss showed
promise as a rim runner in their motion offense. Eric Paschall
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provided scoring and can switch in the pick and roll. Kevin
Looney is a consistent roll man. The Warriors are lacking the
Andre Iguodala piece on this roster. At the second pick there
are not many players that fit this archetype, if they trade down
they should target large wings.
XXXI. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Warriors Free Agency
VIII. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Non-Guarantees, Cap Space for 2020-21
IX. Free Agent Targets
X. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 2
Choice #1
James Wiseman 19 yrs old, PF/C, Memphis
7’1 240lbs; 7’6” Wingspan
2019-20 (3 games): 19.7 PPG; 10.7 RPG; 0.3 APG; 0.3
STL; 3.0 BLK; 76.9% FG; 0.0% 3FG

James Wiseman is extraordinary athlete. His


ability to run the floor at 7’1 puts him in rare
company. There are a ton of question marks
around his feel. Wiseman has one of the highest
floors in this draft due to his size and ability to
finish around the rim.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Getting out on the break/ Rim-Running • Poor footwork, slow hips
• Rim protection • Drop big in PNR
• Offensive glass cleaner • Defensive awareness
• Strong roll man • Shot selection
• Vertical lob spacer • Undisciplined on defensive end
• Utilizes big frame well • Hands/quickness
• Good motor, runs the floor well in • Post passing
transition
NBA Comparison: Andre Drummond, Hassan Whiteside
 Wiseman has a lot of room for growth, starting with his shooting. If he can develop a
consistent jump shot & develop a better awareness of the game, he should develop
into an all-star talent. He will need to adjust to the NBA’s frequent use of the pick and
roll defensively, and the leagues overall spacing. Fit will play a large role in him
getting an opportunity to develop & showcase his offensive skillset.
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Choice #2
Deni Avdija 19 yrs old, F, Maccabi Tel Aviv
(ISBL)
6’9 220lbs; 6’9 Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 12.9 PPG; 6.3 RPG; 2.7 APG; 0.9 STL;
2.2 TO; 52.6% FG; 35.3% 3FG

Deni Avdija is an elite level international talent. He


is an all-around offensive player that can be a half
court creator. He has a great feel for the game. He is
a strong defensive player that shows consistent
effort on that end. He flaunts a high floor due to his
mixed bag of skills.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Great feel for the game • Translation of three-point shooting,
• Cuts well off the ball, slips screens well footwork is main mechanical issue
• Nice touch around the rim • Low free throw percentage
• Great handle for a bigger wing • Average burst out of first step
• Able to get his shot off whenever • Right hand dominant
• Intelligent passer • Tries to do too much at times
• Physical defender, solid athlete • Top tier athletes can beat him downhill
• Shown added strength over past year
NBA Comparison: Hedo Turkoglu, Joe Ingles+
 Deni Avdija is a top prospect in this class due to his high floor and foundational skills
that could also lead to an extremely high ceiling if his shooting translates to the NBA.
He can add immediate value at the three or four as a secondary creator. Defensively,
he is better than given credit for. He reads passing lanes well does a good job of
blocking shots at well. He is a playmaker on both ends of the floor.
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Choice #3
Isaac Okoro, 19 yrs old, F, Auburn
6’6 225lbs; 6’9 Wingspan
2019-20: 12.8 PPG; 4.4 RPG; 2.0 APG; 0.9
STL; 2.0 TO; 51.4% FG; 28.6% 3FG

Okoro is the prototypical build for an


NBA forward. A long, athletic swing
prospect with a strong defensive
presence that can play point of attack
against an opponent’s top scorer.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Strong ability to finish off both feet at • Struggles to score outside paint
the rim, not afraid of contact • Needs improved shooting mechanics,
• Poise and composure at a young age, footwork
does not gamble • Looks lost on offense when slashing
• Solid first step, rips well in triple threat lanes taken away
• Great defensive instincts/awareness, • Always looking to spin or Euro step,
moves well laterally, can guard 1-5 low variety of moves
• Active off ball defender with solid • Inconsistent free throw shooter
spatial awareness • No off dribble jump shot
• Capable shooter off catch • Can get sloppy/out of control on drives
NBA Comparison: Justice Winslow, Justin Anderson, Jaylen Brown
 Issac Okoro is a high value wing defender with low offensive production from
outside the paint. Okoro has an impressive demeanor and shows maturity. His role
will be to guard the number one option every night.
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ROUND 2 Pick 48 & 51


Choice #1
Jordan Nwora 22 yrs old, F, Louisville
6’7 225lbs; 22 Years Old
2019-20 (31 games): 18.0 PPG; 7.7 RPG; 1.3 APG; 0.3
BLK; 44.0% FG; 40.2% 3FG

Jordan Nwora’s draft stock may be higher this year


than in previous year’s due to the three-point heavy
style of the league & his ability to stretch the floor
and knock down the catch and shoot the three with
consistency. He is far from the best athlete in this
draft, but he has enough athleticism to have some
defensive versatility. He will struggle to create his
own shot in the league which limits his overall
potential.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Shooting/ Quick Release • Below average athlete
• Spatially aware player • Not great at creating his shot
• Size translates to versatility • Weak/ poor finishing
• Elite Catch & shoot • Average ballhandler
• Solid moving shooter/ Pin downs, • Average passing ability
DHO’s, flares, pick n’ pops.
• Run’s shooting lanes in transition
NBA Comparison: Cameron Johnson, Rodney Hood
 Jordan Nwora’s offensive production will rely on other abilities to get him open, and
his consistency knocking down catch and shoot threes. Similar to Cameron Johnson,
he has deep range and a limited ability to create his own shot. Defensively and
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athletically, he resembles of Rodney Hood, usually in the right place but does not
have the talent to be a defensive playmaker.

Choice #2
Naji Marshall Jr. 22 yrs old, F, Xavier
6’7 220lbs; 7’0” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 Games): 16.8 PPG; 6.3 RPG; 4.0 APG;
1.3 STL; 3.4 TO; 44.5% FG; 28.6% 3FG

Naji Marshall was a veteran leader for


Xavier. He is a secondary creator that does a
good job of finishing around the rim. His
shooting is below average. Defensively, he is
a plus help defender and a great on ball
defender.
• Strengths • Weaknesses
• Good finisher at the rim • Poor shot selection, settles for jumpers
(68.9 FG%) • Inconsistent shooting form
• Can get downhill in on ball situations • Average at drawing fouls
• Low volume PNR ball handler (0.32 FTr)
• Plus passer as a forward, can push the ball • Turnovers can be a problem
in transition • Struggles in catch and shoot possessions
(4.5 AST per 40) (0.82 PPP, 28th percentile)
• Active help defender, makes solid • Not much of a post-game or floater
rotations • Almost 23 years old, took postgrad year
• Uses length really well on defense
NBA Comparison: Justin Anderson, Post Prime Andre Iguodala
 Naji Marshall is an older prospect that fits into the back end of a rotation. Marshall’s
jumper has looked better after summer workouts in Las Vegas. He is a versatile
player on both ends of the floor, as a creating slasher on offense and a wing who can
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confidently guard the two through four. Shot selection, playing out of his role, and
age are the three biggest deterrents to his ceiling.

Choice #3
Abdoulaye N’Doye 22 yrs old, G, AS Monaco
(LNB)
6’7 205lbs; 7’2” Wingspan
2019-20 (25 games): 10.1 PPG; 4.2 RPG; 4.0 APG; 2.0 TOV,
1.3 STL; 52.3% FG; 44.1% 3FG

Abdoulaye N’Doye will be a draft and stash


candidate as he just signed a contract with AS
Monaco. N’Doye has great physical tools. He uses
these tools well to get off whatever shot he wants on
offense and to contest shots on defense.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Good ball handler in PNR • May struggle to get downhill when
• Solid passer (2:1 AST:TO) quicker bigs switch onto him
• Great physical tools at the guard spot • Not an explosive in game athlete
• Good touch on runners, can get that shot • Low volume shooter
off whenever he wants • Not necessarily a primary facilitator
• Very comfortable shooting from three, • Needs to add strength and fill out frame
can shoot over guards • Smaller guards get downhill on him
• Can guard one through three • Crowds ball at times instead of using
• Hustles on defense length

NBA Comparison: Dejounte Murray, Shaun Livingston


 Abdoulaye N’Doye is a versatile secondary playmaker. Considering he just signed a
contract; he could be a draft and stash candidate for a year or could be bought out of
his contract. N’Doye projects as a good end of rotation piece due to his excellent
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length and size. He may struggle to create his own shot at some level. His initial
impact will most likely be on the defensive end.

Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Lamar Stevens, 23 years old, 6’8, Penn State
2. Justinian Jessup, 22 years old, 6’7, Boise State
3. Trent Forrest, 22 years old, 6’4, FSU

Warriors Free Agents


I. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Marquese Chriss $1,824,003
2. Damion Lee $1,762,796
3. Ky Bowman $1,517,981
4. Mychal Mulder $1,517,981
5. Juan Toscano-Anderson $1,517,981
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($33,884,768)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): ($30,930,198)
Who stays, Who goes
▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Ky Bowman (Projected League Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current Deal: 83.7%]
The Ky Bowman experiment was unfortunately unsuccessful in Golden State. The
backup point guard started the year as a two-way player for the Warriors but was
thrust into action due to the injury of Stephen Curry. Bowman appeared in 45 games
and played an average of 22 minutes per contest but was ultimately ineffective in this
sample size. Bowman posted a Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of just 9.1, league
average is 15.0. He also had shooting splits of 41.7% and 30.8% from the field and
beyond the arc. Defensively, Bowman posted 3.8 deflections per 75 possessions and
ranked in the 93rd percentile in the league. He finished well around the rim against
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contact. He finished 32% of his baskets around the rim when he was fouled. With
point guard being a priority in the draft in free agency, there is no reason to carry four-
point guards on the roster next season.
2. Mychal Mulder (Projected League Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current Deal: 60.1%]
Much like Bowman, Mychal Mulder was thrust into some action for the warriors at the
shooting guard spot for the injured Klay Thompson. Appearing in 10 games Mulder
played 30 minutes per game and was inefficient and overmatched in the minutes he
played. Posting a Box Plus Minus (BPM) of -6.1 and a PER of just 7.8 begin to tell the
story of the struggles Mulder experienced. Mulder was also consistently taking
contested shots. 3.8% of his threes was considered open shots which put him in the
12th percentile across the league. He greatly struggled getting downhill, only taking
0.4 unassisted rim attempts per 75 possessions. Also only averaged 3.4 points off
assists per 75 possessions slotting him in the 13th percentile in that category.
Defensively, Mulder was aggressively attacked in the pick and roll and was a liability
defensively. He also is on an unguaranteed deal with the Warriors and it doesn’t seem
he will be returning.
3. Juan Toscano-Anderson (Projected League Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current Deal: 21.9%]
Juan Toscano-Anderson is another converted exhibit 10 (like Mulder) for Golden State
and is a 27-year-old wing. Toscano-Anderson was an above average defender posting
a Defensive Box Plus Minus (DBPM) of 0.5 while shooting a respectable 34.8% from
three on offense. Although shooting around league average from three, no teams
considered him an offensive threat. His shooting gravity was in the 19th percentile. As
a wing, Toscano-Anderson is a plus rim deterrent as he contested 30.0% of shots while
on the floor and expected field goal precented dropped 7.1% when he was the primary
defender. Toscano-Anderson could be brought back to the Warriors at the league
minimum given his current contract, but Golden State may have to part with to get
more established wings since it is expected they are going to be fully in contention
mode for the upcoming season.
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▪ Players to keep:
1. Marquese Chriss (Non-Guaranteed $1,824,003)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current Deal: 93.6%]
Marquese Chriss was one of the bright spots in a dismal season for the Warriors and
with his cap hit of only $1,824,003 the Warriors should bring him back for the 2021
season. The 6’9 Center finally showed the promise that the Phoenix Suns saw in him
when they took him eighth overall back in 2016 out of Washington, displaying his
athleticism and rim running throughout the 2020 season. Chriss moves extremely well
off the ball, with 28% of his half court buckets came off of cuts, an extremely valuable
skill for the Warriors offense with Steph and Klay. He was a plus as a roll man
averaging 6.4 screen assists and an offensive glass hunter grabbing 3.5 offensive
rebounds (73.7% contested). Defensively he has made his presence felt despite his
lack of size, contesting 37% of shots and blocking 22% of his contests. In the Warriors
offense he has found his spot in the role JaVale McGee used to serve, playing around
20 minutes a contest and providing a vertical spacer in the motion heavy offense of
Steve Kerr.
2. Damion Lee (Non-Guaranteed $1,762,796)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current Deal: 99.2%]
Damion Lee is another good find by the Warriors scouting department. The 28-year-
old wing seemed to be a career journey after bouncing from the Celtics and Hawks,
providing little to no value in the opportunities he did get, but last year that changed.
Thrust into a starting role for most of the season, Lee proved to be a consistent
contributor on the offensive end, posting a 35.6% three-point field goal percentage
(37% corner threes) on nearly five attempts per game. Actively moves of the ball with
screening actions, 28% of half court buckets came off of screening actions. Lee is an
active defender, player tracking data puts him in the 88th percentile for defensive miles
traveled per 75 possessions. This shooting paired, off ball movement with some
playmaking and a willing attitude on defense made Lee the best guard on the Warriors
for the 2019-20 campaign and given his cap hit of just $1,762,796, he should be
brought back for next year.
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Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
DJ Augustin 5’11 185lbs 32 years old, PG, Current Salary: $7,250,000
Projected Annual Salary: Mid-Level Exception
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 70.5%
DJ Augustin is a solid veteran point guard. When on the ball, his value comes from attacking
downhill plus running half court sets. He averaged 0.94 PPP as a pick and roll ball handler, good
for the 76th percentile of point guards. He was not great at getting all the way downhill and
finishing but uses that advantage to facilitate for others. Augustin’s three-point percentage might
not show it, but Augustin is a great three-point shooter, specifically off the catch (46.5%). He did
not get the chance to in Orlando, but he would fit well as a secondary creator alongside a ball
dominant shot creator. Defensively, he does not add much value. He is a negative on that end of
the floor according to basically every metric, so that aspect of his game cannot be expected to
change at this point in his career. Using Augustin in the right role would provide a legitimate
veteran presence at the backup point guard spot.

Option #2:
Josh Jackson 6’8 210lbs 23 years old, SG/SF, Current Salary: 7,059,480
Projected Annual Salary: $2,000,000-$4,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 98.9%
Josh Jackson has struggled during his time in the NBA. He flashed enough potential at Kansas to
make him a top five pick in the draft. A veteran locker room presence may be key to his long-
term career aspirations. From a statistical perspective, he had negative win shares both of his first
two seasons but turned that around in his third season in extremely low volume. He has not had
any success on the offensive end of the floor, shooting 29.8% from three and 57% percent at the
rim. He is not much of a playmaker either. He still needs to find his role on offense. On the
defensive side of the ball, he has started to show some potential. Memphis had him spend a lot of
time guarding primary creators. He showed some versatility, spending significant time guarding
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the one through four. He showed flashes of reading passing lanes as well. Jackson needs to get
some live action reps. There is some real potential for him on defense.

Option #3:
Jeff Green 6’8 235lbs 34 years old, C/PF/SF, Current Salary: $439,475
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 69.6%
Jeff Green is a solid veteran presence who provides excellent value for a minimum contract. He
really showed what he can contribute once he got traded to Houston and started receiving
minutes at the five spot. He has shown some streaky shooting in the past, but really took control
in their bubble playoff run. He shot 42.6% from three on 54 attempts. Green has consistently
shown an ability to step up in the playoffs throughout his career (51.9% conversion on corner
threes in the playoffs vs 38.5% conversion rate during the regular season, an increase of
+13.4%). Green is also good at moving and cutting off the ball, being in the 90th percentile in
Bball Index’s stats regarding off-ball cuts. On the defensive side of the ball, Green was a force in
the playoffs. When guarding isolations, he gave up 0.73 PPP on a FG% of 36% according to
Stats.NBA. He showed versatility during the regular season as well, guarding every position for
at least 13% of his defensive possessions. Green has carved out a new role with Houston as a
legitimate small ball five. This role could translate to a multitude of playoff contenders.

Option #4:
Meyers Leonard 7’0 260lbs, 28 years old, C/PF, Current Salary: $11,286,515
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000-$8,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 7.2%
Meyers Leonard is a floor spacing big. He shot 41% from three on 2.5 attempts per game.
Leonard is not a high usage player, but more of a complimentary screener and perimeter oriented
big. He had his lowest USG% of his career during this past season, after breaking out previously
in Portland’s 2019 playoff run to the western conference finals. Although he is a low usage
player, he is extremely efficient, finishing with a TS% over 60% each of the past three seasons.
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He functions best offensively as a pick and roll screener, getting to the short roll or popping.
Defensively, he would pair nicely with an athletic guard who can push the ball up the floor as he
is in the top tier of players as far as boxing out is concerned. He is a rim deterrent even if he is
not much of a playmaker, contesting a third of all rim attempts when he is on the court. He is not
much of a perimeter defender but gets by without having that skill set in his bag. From a
marketing standpoint, fans seem to be drawn to his big personality.

Option #5:
Mario Hezonja 6’8 220lbs 25 years old, SF/PF, Current Salary: $1,737,145
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 4.5%
Former fifth overall pick Mario Hezonja has carved himself out a role in the NBA as an end of
the rotation wing that is a net positive on the defensive end of the court. Hezonja played in
Portland this past season and logged more minutes at the power forward spot than he had in any
previous season (67%). This change helped Hezonja as the knock on him offensively has been
his inability to get downhill by wings and finish at the rim (2.3 shots at the rim per 75
possessions, 31st percentile). He is a blackhole on offense, averaging 9.5 potential assists per 100
passes, in the 26th percentile. Hezonja posted a DBPM of 0.2. He is an active defender, averaging
4.5 three-point contests per 75 possessions, in the 82nd percentile. He guarded power forwards on
34.4% of his defensive possessions. Given his size at 6’8 220, should continue to be a
contributor on that end of the court as the power forward position continues to shrink from the
behemoths of the 90’s and 2000’s.

Trade Scenarios
1. Sacramento Kings
Kings Receiving: Andrew Wiggins, Mychal Mulder, 2020 1st
Round Pick (2nd overall)
Warriors Receiving: Nemanja Bjelica, Bogdan Bogdanovic (via
sign and trade), 2020 1st Round Pick (12th overall)
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In this trade, Golden State increases their financial flexibility for this offseason and builds out
their rotation with reliable pieces. Bogdan Bogdanovic provides Golden State with another
secondary ballhandler to take some of the load off Steph Curry. Nemanja Bjelica is an underrated
piece of this trade and would slot into the Warrior’s offense perfectly as a catch and shoot big
along with potential for pick and pop actions. The last piece of this deal for Golden State is the
12th overall selection in this year’s NBA draft. At this spot, Golden State could look to pick up
wings like Patrick Williams, Saddiq Bey or Aaron Nesmith to bolster their forward rotation. The
final asset of this deal for Golden State is that it gets them approximately $1 million below the
luxury tax apron, allowing them to explore more moves like the full mid-level exception in free
agency. Getting below the tax apron also allows for the sign and trade to happen under CBA
rules. For Sacramento, this deal allows them to add another useful offensive player in Wiggins
while, hopefully, adding a future star with their selection at two in the 2020 draft. Sacramento
would have a multitude of avenues at this spot, being able to pair their young core of De’Aaron
Fox, Buddy Hield and Marvin Bagley III with a prospect like LaMelo Ball, James Wiseman or
Deni Avdija.
2. San Antonio Spurs and Chicago Bulls
Spurs Receiving: Otto Porter Jr. 4th overall via Chicago
Bulls Receiving: Andrew Wiggins 2nd overall via Golden
State
Warriors Receiving: LaMarcus Aldridge 11th overall via
San Antonio
With Steph Curry and Klay Thompson returning to the Golden State lineup, LaMarcus Aldridge
is their third scoring option in the midrange and post. He can create his own shot in the mid post
and uses his frame well on defense. San Antonio is ready to move on and set themselves up for
the future with young talent and draft capital. Trading for Otto Porter Jr allows them to stay away
from a multi-year contract, but more importantly they move up in the draft. With San Antonio
taking Chicago’s spot in the draft, look for them to target Deni Avdija. He fits the mold of a
Spurs player and would fit in well with their player development system. The Chicago Bulls
relieve the Andrew Wiggins contract from the Warriors and move up in the draft for doing so. At
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this spot, they could target Anthony Edwards or LaMelo Ball, specifically whichever one falls
past the Minnesota Timberwolves.
3. Boston Celtics & Detroit Pistons (3 Team Trade)
Pistons Receiving: Andrew Wiggins, Javonte Green, 2020 2nd
Round Pick (47th overall from Boston via Brooklyn)
Celtics Receiving: Derrick Rose, 2021 1st Round Pick (via Golden
State)
Warriors Receiving: Gordon Hayward, 2020 1st Round Pick (14th
overall via Boston)
Golden State is able to offload the Andrew Wiggins contract while receiving a one-year flyer in
Gordon Hayward with Bird Rights if deemed necessary. This trade also allows Golden State to
add an extra draft pick at the end of the lottery this year to look at more wing depth. Detroit gets
a jumpstart on their rebuild, adding former number one overall pick Andrew Wiggins. He should
add value playing off of Blake Griffin as a creator. Javonte Green allows the salaries to work
while also adding additional draft capital in a second-round pick. Boston adds a legitimate
backup point guard in Derrick Rose. They also get to move one of their three first round picks
while also adding an unprotected pick in a loaded 2021 draft class. It is believed that the Celtics
want to move out from at least one of their draft picks as they have 15 guaranteed roster spots
already taken.
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HOUSTON ROCKETS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
XXXII. Trade Options for Draft Picks
XXXIII. Team Needs
a. Stretch 4 or 5 with the ability to defend opposing bigs and rebound
i. P.J. Tucker has one year left on his contract and is 35 years old.
Houston needs to bring someone in that has a similar skillset to
Tucker but is closer to his prime, if they desire to continue the
super small ball approach.
b. Depth (Guards or Wings)
i. During the playoffs, Houston was running 7-man rotation.
Depth and shooting are a focal point of every NBA team, but
especially Houston with its heavy 3-point style.
XXXIV. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Rockets Free Agency
XI. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XII. Free Agent Targets
XIII. Trade Scenarios
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Round 2 Trade-In Candidates


Choice #1
Malachi Flynn 22 yrs old, G, San Diego State
6’2 185lbs; 6’3 Wingspan
2019-20: 17.6 PPG; 4.5 RPG; 5.1 APG; 1.8 STL; 1.8 TO; 44.1% FG;
37.3% 3FG

Malachi Flynn has shown an ability to guard that could net


him immediate playing time in the league. He has shown
legitimate scoring prowess as well from multiple levels.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Pick and roll maestro, great at reading • Small frame, needs to add size
defensive coverages • Needs to develop a better paint game off
• Variety of ways to score, uses pull up as pick and roll
well as coming off the dribble, able to play • Guarding bigger guards
off the ball and relocate to get open spot • Not an elite athlete; doesn’t have quick
up shots off dribble penetration; limitless enough burst to blow by defenders
range, never shy’s away from deep 3’s • Little room for growth/development
• Good ball handler
• Active and alert defender
NBA Comparison: Fred Van Fleet, Tyus Jones
 Malachi Flynn has had a very solid college career. His ability to run the pick and roll
and shoot the 3 have been highly impressive during his tenure in college. Where he as
well lacks in physical attributes his skills have been able to carry him along to reach
this point of making it to the next level. Whether teams view him as a guy capable of
playing the 1 or 2 at the NBA level remains up in the air. He is a versatile scorer, that
may struggle to create space against top tier defenders.
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Choice #2
Mamadi Diakite 23 yrs old, PF, Virginia
6’9 224lbs; 7’3 ½” Wingspan
2019-20 (30 games): 13.7 PPG; 6.8 RPG; 0.6 APG; 1.3
BLK; 47.8% FG; 36.4% 3FG

Mamadi Diakite should be put into both pick


and pop and spot up situations in the NBA. He
has shown improvements in shooting. He is a
high IQ team defender that can defend the four
and five. He does a good job of contesting
shots.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Improved shooting, good form, and soft • Struggles as a passer (1:3 AST:TO)
touch • Poor ball handler, cannot create his own
• Active second jumper, attacks the shot off the dribble
offensive glass • Good defender at multiple facets, not
• Very simplistic offensive game great in one specific area
• Quick hips and good defensive footwork • Needs to continue to add strength
• Good technique in the post • Not confident in his ability to consistently
• Uses length well on closeouts switch the PNR
NBA Comparison: Ersan Illyasova, Meyers Leonard, Marreese Speights
 Diakite’s NBA role will be as a stretch five. He needs to offer consistent three point
shooting off the catch, as well as the ability to play the big in the pick and roll/pop.
He fits in well to a low usage spacing role. Defensively, he shows some versatility,
but struggles to be excellent in any specific area. His length is a huge plus on this end
of the floor.
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Choice #3
Naji Marshall Jr. 22 yrs old, F, Xavier
6’7 220lbs; 7’0” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 Games): 16.8 PPG; 6.3 RPG; 4.0 APG;
1.3 STL; 3.4 TO; 44.5% FG; 28.6% 3FG

Naji Marshall was a veteran leader for


Xavier. He is a secondary creator that does a
good job of finishing around the rim. His
shooting is below average. Defensively, he is
a plus help defender and a great on ball
defender.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Good finisher at the rim • Poor shot selection, settles for jumpers
(68.9 FG%) • Inconsistent shooting form
• Can get downhill in on ball situations • Average at drawing fouls
• Low volume PNR ball handler (0.32 FTr)
• Plus passer as a forward, can push the ball • Turnovers can be a problem
in transition • Struggles in catch and shoot possessions
(4.5 AST per 40) (0.82 PPP, 28th percentile)
• Active help defender, makes solid • Not much of a post game or floater
rotations • Almost 23 years old, took postgrad year
• Uses length really well on defense
NBA Comparison: Justin Anderson, Maurice Harkless
 Naji Marshall is an older prospect that fits into the back end of a rotation. Marshall’s
jumper has looked better after summer workouts in Las Vegas. He is a versatile player on
both ends of the floor, as a creating slasher on offense and a wing who can confidently
guard the two through four. Shot selection, playing out of his role, and age are the three
biggest deterrents to his ceiling.
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Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Paul Eboua, 20 years old, 6’8, Victoria Libertas Pesaro
2. Nick Richards, 22 years old, 6’11, Kentucky
3. Anthony Lamb, 22 years old, 6’6, Vermont

Rockets Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Bruno Caboclo $1,845,301
2. Tyson Chandler $1,620,564
3. Thabo Sefolosha $1,620,564
4. DeMarre Carroll $512,721
5. Jeff Green $439,475
6. Luc Mbah a Moute (10-day contract pre COVID)
II. Player Option
1. Austin Rivers $2,436,046
III. Team Option
1. David Nwaba $1,824,003
IV. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Ben McLemore $2,283,034
2. Chris Clemons $1,517,981
V. Dead Cap Space
1. Troy Williams $122,741
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($18,384,783)
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 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): ($14,109,891)

Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Tyson Chandler (Projected Minimum or Retired)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 0%]
This upcoming season would mark Tyson Chandler’s 20th season in the NBA. He
played just over 200 minutes with Houston this season as they moved away from the
traditional center. Chandler could supply some team around the league with an interior
defensive presence & rebounding in spot minutes. He is basically an insurance policy
and locker room leader at this point in his career. It would not be surprising if
Chandler decided to retire.
2. Thabo Sefolosha (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 3.4%]
In his prime, Thabo Sefolosha was one of the league’s premiere perimeter defenders,
specifically in passing lanes. In low volume, he got 5.9 deflections and steals in
passing lanes per 75 possessions (100th percentile amongst wings). His age has caught
up to him, and his shooting has not caught up with his age. Injuries may be part of the
issue here as his leg was broken in 2015, as well as dealing with a sprained MCL in
2018, and dealt with an illness during the middle of the 2020 season. On top of that, he
did opt out of the NBA bubble. In 2019, Sefolosha had a good three-point shooting
season with Utah, shooting 43.6% from beyond the arc on extremely low volume (78
attempts). Unfortunately, that season was an outlier as it was the first season since
2012 that he shot over 39% from three. Most defense treat him with little respect and
will leave him wide open from behind the arc. With the success that Daniel House and
Ben McLemore found last season, there is not a situation where Houston decides to
play Sefolosha over them.
3. DeMarre Carroll (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Deal: 86.4%]
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DeMarre Carroll did not get much run with either Sacramento or Houston this past
year, as he only played 290 minutes. Over his career, Carroll has sown improvements
as a shoot as he only made 7 threes over his first six seasons, and he made eight threes
on limited volume this season. He is an average shooter from deep at best. His defense
and athleticism have declined with age. Most of his defense statistics cannot really be
relied upon from this past year as he spent 52% of his minutes guarding bench players
who are typically relegated to garbage time. Houston can find a player that provides
more consistent three-point shooting and equal defensive value in free agency or via
trade.
4. Luc Mbah a Moute (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 56.5%]
Luc Mbah a Moute has only appeared in seven games over the past two seasons. He
was signed as a replacement player for Thabo Sefolosha for the bubble. He played 25
minutes during the bubble, all during qualifying games. He did not touch the floor
during either of Houston’s playoff series. At 34 years old, his career may be nearing its
end.
5. Austin Rivers (Projected $3,000,000-$6,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 58.6%]
Austin Rivers will most likely decline his $2.4 million player option. This past season,
Rivers inched toward league averages in his three-point shooting (35.6% on 270
attempts) and free throw shooting (70.3% on 111 attempts). One of the areas were
Rivers is a plus, is his isolation scoring. He took 2.5 isolation attempts per 75 attempts
(86th percentile amongst guards). 30% of his threes were unassisted and, 92% of his
makes at the rim were unassisted. A few teams may look at Rivers as a lead guard off
the bench and find value in that that equating to a multi-year deal.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Bruno Caboclo (Projected League Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 62.1%]
At 25 years old, Bruno Caboclo is still a developing player. He played seven playoff
minutes this year, so he is still far from being a rotation piece. From the 2019 to the
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2020 season, his average minutes per game dropped 15.4 minutes (from 23.5 minutes
to 8.1 minutes). The goal is for him to continue developing and eventually crack a
lineup as a piece off the bench. There will not be much of a market for him, so if
Houston sees any potential for Caboclo, they should seek to resign him at the
minimum. Continuing to spend time in the G League, with the Rio Grande Valley
Vipers, may do him well.
2. Jeff Green (Projected League Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 69.6%]
Jeff Green belongs at the top of their priority list. Jeff Green is a solid veteran presence
who provides excellent value for a veteran minimum contract. Once he was traded to
the Houston Rockets, he stepped into a brand-new role as a small ball center. He fit in
very well in this role, especially in the playoffs. He shot 42.6% from three on 54
attempts. Green has consistently shown an ability to step up in the playoffs throughout
his career (51.9% conversion on corner threes in the playoffs vs 38.5% conversion rate
during the regular season, an increase of +13.4%). Green is also good at moving and
cutting off the ball, being in the 90th percentile in Bball Index’s stats regarding off-
ball cuts. On the defensive side of the ball, Green was a force in the playoffs. When
guarding isolations, he gave up 0.73 PPP on a field goal percentage of 36% according
to Stats.NBA. He showed versatility during the regular season as well, guarding every
position for at least 13% of his defensive possessions. Green has carved out a new role
with Houston as a legitimate small ball five.
3. David Nwaba (Team Option $1,824,003)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Deal: 65.3%]
Houston will bring back David Nwaba. They signed him to a contract knowing he
would not be able to contribute during the bubble and playoff run due to a torn
Achilles in December of 2019. Houston views him as a rotation piece. Nwaba is a
strong versatile defender and has shown some value as a shooter as well. He has
potential to operate as a 3&D wing next season.
4. Ben McLemore (Non-guaranteed $2,283,034)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 90.4%]
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Ben McLemore really had himself a career altering season. He proved himself as a
3&D wing by shooting 40% from behind the three-point line on 452 attempts. A lot of
these threes came off screening actions such as down screens. He stayed behind the
three-point line for most of his possessions, as he only took 1.4 shots at the rim per 75
possessions. McLemore also added 1.1 defensive win shares. He is not that valuable as
an off-ball team defender but is a strong point of attack defender. He uses his frame
well to push opponents off their spot. Look for McLemore to be a big contributor for
this Houston roster after his contract is guaranteed.
5. Chris Clemons (Non-guaranteed $1,517,981)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 2 Year Deal: 80.6%]
Houston should bring back Chris Clemons despite his less than stellar rookie
campaign. Houston has seven potential roster openings with zero cap space. Clemons
is a perimeter-scoring guard with 75.4% of his shot attempts coming from beyond the
three-point line. In addition, Clemons utilizes his quickness well to create his own
shot. 70% of his two-point field goals made were unassisted and 43.2% of his three-
point field goals made were unassisted. The struggles for Clemons come in his scoring
efficiency. This may have changed if he saw more volume. He needs to improve at
attacking the rim and collapsing defenses. Not much can be taken from his defense as
he mainly played in garbage time.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Trey Burke 6’0 185lbs 27 years old, PG, Current Salary: $229,220
Projected Annual Salary: Mid-Level Exception
Probability to Add Positive Value on 2 Year Deal: 45.2%
Trey Burke was a solid pickup for Dallas as a replacement player for the NBA bubble. In low
volume, he operated as a secondary creator and scorer. He shot 42.7% from three on 75 attempts
this year. That jumped to 50% off the dribble, but on much lower volume. Burke is a legitimate
isolation scorer. He drew a foul on 30% of his isolation shot attempts, good for the 94th
percentile amongst guards. He is a solid passer as well with a 3.5:1.0 AST:TO ratio. His turnover
rate has been below 10% every year since 2016-17. He has legitimate offensive value as a spark
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plug creator off the bench when high usage guards need a break. Burke may even have starter
potential in spot games as he cracked the starting lineup for half of Dallas’ playoff games. He
can be counted on for double digits points when given a legitimate role. Defensively, is not
anything special, but he does a good job of disrupting shot selection when guarding on the ball.
He did a decent job at play making with a steal percentage of 2.3%. Trey Burke fits into a
increasingly valuable archetype as a secondary ball handler and a point of attack defender.
Playoff teams are beginning to realize that off the dribble shooting is an extremely valuable skill,
and Burke can provide that at a low price point.

Option #2:
Pat Connaughton 6’5 210lbs 27 years old, F, Current Salary: $1,723,050
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 23%
Pat Connaughton is a below average shooter from range but does a good job of attacking the rim
off the ball as a cutter. He does not have much of an on-ball skillset as he struggles to get
downhill on drives. Sometimes he struggles to translate his athleticism into actual output.
Defensively he is solid. He is a much better point of attack defender than off-ball defender in
passing lanes. He struggled to get deflections as he averages 1.2 deflections per 75 possessions,
in the 13th percentile amongst wings. He spent 58.9% of his defensive possessions guarding point
guards and shooting guards. Connaughton has a rather translatable skill set and should be able to
play down the lineup at the three and four on offense.

Option #3:
Kyle O’Quinn 6’9 250lbs 30 years old, C/PF, Current Salary: $1,620,564
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on 1 Year Deal: 54.7%
Kyle O’Quinn is a strong veteran presence to any locker room. His value does not stem just from
his on-court production, but off the court as well. On the court, he is a low volume big that can
play spot minutes as a second or third center. He is a good finisher off dump downs and roll
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actions. He is a good rim runner, adding 1.57 PPP in transition actions. He also took a third of
his shots from three but did not provide much value in terms of making those shots. He could
have some value as a pick and pop big as his three-point shooting percentage rose to 38% on
above the break threes, although this was on low volume. O’Quinn is also a very good passer as
far as bigs go. He averaged almost six assists per 36 minutes and created 13.2 assisted points per
75 possessions (95th percentile amongst centers). On the defensive end of the floor, he is an
average perimeter defender. He does not move very well in space but has a high basketball IQ
and is typically a good positional defender. He is a good interior defender though, deterring 41%
of rim attempts with a BLK% of 6.5%. He is a minimum veteran that can add value to a
contending team.

Option #4:
Cheick Diallo 6’8 220lbs 24 years old, C/PF, Current Salary: $1,678,854
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 58.1%
Cheick Diallo has underperformed in Phoenix and most likely will not be brought back on his
team option. As a scorer, Diallo has shown improved touch, shooting 87% from the free throw
line on low volume. He is an effective scorer in isolation actions, scoring 1.3 PPP on roughly 1.5
possessions per game. He has shown consistent efficiency scoring the ball, finishing the last
three seasons with a true shooting % above 60%. He projects as a solid roll man in the pick and
roll, as he sets hard screens and opens up well out of the action. He has a good feel for moving
off the ball. He also excelled on the glass, averaging 9.8 rebounds per 36 minutes. He attacks the
offensive glass frequently, cleaning up misses. Defensively, he struggles to guard the perimeter.
He was constantly a switch target when guarding the pick and roll. There is not much value there
in terms of late game situations as guarding those switches is crucial in end of game actions. On
the interior, he is a rim deterrent. He is not a playmaker on this end of the floor, but contests a lot
of shots at the rim, contesting 9.2 rim attempts per 75 possessions at the 91st percentile. Diallo is
an efficient scorer in low volume minutes that attacks the glass well. He is a prototypical interior
big on the defensive side of the ball.
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Trade Scenarios
1. Phoenix Suns and Philadelphia 76ers
Suns Receiving: Ben Simmons
76ers Receiving: Eric Gordon, James Harden
Rockets Receiving: Al Horford, Kelly Oubre Jr, Josh Richardson,
2020 1st Round Pick (10th overall via Phoenix), 2021 1st Round
Pick (via Philadelphia)
All three teams improve the overall construction of their roster in this trade. The Houston
Rockets loses former MVP and All-NBA player James Harden; they bring three players in that
complement Russell Westbrook’s ball dominant style: Al Horford, Kelly Oubre and Josh
Richardson. Houston sheds Eric Gordon's overpriced contract and adds three first round picks
over the next two seasons. This allows Houston to continue to compete with a retool or transition
into a rebuild. This trade provides Phoenix with a franchise point guard in Ben Simmons, a
perfect complement to Devin Booker. Two first round picks and an expiring deal in Kelly Oubre
for Simmons would be a steal for Phoenix. Lastly, Philadelphia puts themselves in championship
contention with the addition of Harden to complement the dominant paint presence of Embiid.
He provides the necessary on-ball scoring gravity to give Embiid the necessary space.
2. Sacramento Kings
Kings Receiving: Eric Gordon, Danuel House
Rockets Receiving: Nemanja Bjelica
In this trade, Houston manages to clear some salary while returning an impactful stretch big.
Nemanja Bjelica fits in well as a shooter that can space the floor for Russell Westbrook and
James Harden. He shot 42% on catch and shoot threes, in the 84th percentile amongst bigs. He
would fit well in the Ryan Anderson or PJ Tucker role with Houston. For Sacramento, they get a
wing that can create their shot alongside De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield. The addition of Eric
Gordon allows Sacramento to play around with three guard lineups. Danuel House adds value as
a rotation piece off the bench.
3. Memphis Grizzlies
Grizzlies Receiving: Eric Gordon, Chris Clemons
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Rockets Receiving: Jonas Valanciunas, Grayson Allen


For the Houston Rockets, they move back toward a traditional lineup with a center after Daryl
Morey transitioned to a role with the Philadelphia 76ers. They receive a legitimate center with
Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas works well in screening actions as well as post isolations. He
has nice touch around the rim and uses his frame well to get to his spot. In pick and rolls,
Valanciunas averaged 5.3 screen assists per 75 possessions, in the 67th percentile amongst bigs.
Grayson Allen is an additional prospect that may add value as an end of rotation piece. He only
played 38 games this past season in Memphis. For the Memphis Grizzlies, they receive Eric
Gordon on a multi-year contract. He is another shot creator that can be placed next to Ja Morant.
He can add value as a secondary playmaker in spot situations as well. Chris Clemons is a throw
in piece in this trade that may eventually be a plus player.
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INDIANA PACERS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
XXXV. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 2: Pick 54
XXXVI. Team Needs
a. Injection of Youth
i. If Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner are on the trade block, it
may be a viable option to trade them for depth and youth into
the lineup.
b. Active Forward
i. A defensive minded wing would be useful in terms of shutting
down scorers at the point of attack.
XXXVII. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Pacers Free Agency
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VI. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
VII. Free Agent Targets
VIII. Trade Scenarios

ROUND 2 PICK 54
Choice #1
Jay Scrubb 20 yrs old, G, John A. Logan
6’6 200lbs 6’9” wingspan
2019-20 (30 games): 21.9 PPG; 6.8 RPG; 2.7 APG;
1.4 STL; 50.1% FG; 33.3% 3FG

Jay Scrubb is an unproven commodity after


only playing college basketball at the JUCO
level. He is an extremely confident on-ball
scorer first that excels at slashing. He has
tunnel vision and makes soft passes. On
defense, the hope is that his motor picks up.
He offers some playmaking when he tries.
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Strengths Weaknesses
• Finishes well at and above the rim • MOTOR is by far the biggest concern,
• Extremely athletic both vertically and both offensively and defensively
laterally • Struggles to shoot with any consistency
• Shoots well off the dribble • Shot selection, blackhole on offense
• Strong handle for a bigger guard • Defensive awareness when making
• Good hips when guarding POA rotations or playing help side
• Can create shot at will • Soft skills, work ethic is suspect

NBA Comparison: Shabazz Muhammad, Dion Waiters


 Jay Scrubb is a high upside prospect with an extremely low floor. He can get to the
rim and score with the best of them. He does a good job of drawing fouls there as
well. None of that really matters if he does not try to be a better player. He needs to
show effort on defense and when he is playing off the ball. If his motor improves, he
is a steal in the second round. If not, he will be out of the league after his rookie
contract.

Choice #2
Payton Pritchard 22 yrs old, G,
Oregon
6’2 206lbs; 6’4½ Wingspan
2019-20: 20.5 PPG; 4.3 RPG; 5.5 APG; 1.5
STL; 2.7 TO; 46.8% FG; 41.5% 3FG

Payton Pritchard is a 4-year player who


took massive leaps and truly took the
reins of the offense on all levels. His
leadership and energy make him an
NBA ready guard ready to make an
impact upon arrival in the league.
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Strengths Weaknesses
• Competitor/leader on the floor • Lacks physical intangibles
• 3 level scorer with shooting range out to 30 • Inconsistent mid-range game, may struggle
feet to get downhill in NBA
• Great ball-handler/playmaker, especially in • On-ball creator, doesn’t add much off-ball,
the pick and roll traditional point guard
• Locks in defensively and is able to be a • Can be a streaky shooter, forces shots
pest/frustrate ball handlers • Not huge potential for growth, 4-year
• high IQ; good communication amongst player, 22 years old
teammates
NBA Comparison: T.J. McConnell; Jalen Brunson
 Prichard has continuously showed his ability to command a team and elevate his play
year after year. Coming into the draft with a bit of experience, he is a player that can
come into a team and add value in a role off the bench. He is a shot creator with NBA
level shooting range that can create for others out of the pick and roll. There will not
be much of a learning curve for him.

Choice #3
Yam Madar 19 yrs old, G, Hapoel Tel Aviv (BSL)
6’3 180lbs
2019-20 (32 games): 10.6 PPG; 2.4 RPG; 3.4 APG; 2.6 TO, 1.0
STL; 44.4% FG; 26.7% 3FG

Yam Madar improved his draft stock toward the end of


the BSL season. He is a defense first guard with a great
motor. He defends well in the pick and roll as well as
point of attack actions. Most of his offense comes from
5-20 feet. He has potential to be a three-point shooter
but still has a way to go.
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Strengths Weaknesses
• FT% points toward progression with • Undersized off-ball guard
shooting (81.2%) • Decision making is a minus, not a
• Creates space in the midrange dynamic facilitator
• Decent touch on floater • Statistically poor three-point shooter
• Invites contact (26.7%)
• Can pick up 94ft on defense • Below average athleticism, plays
• Fights hard through screens primarily below the rim
• Exceptional motor • Questions about how he would do with
increased volume

NBA Comparison: Patrick Beverly, Ish Smith


 Yam Madar is an unknown commodity with solid potential. He is a plus on defense
immediately due to the effort he gives on that end of the floor. He would fit well in
DHO actions as he can get downhill without isolating on the ball. His shooting still
needs work, but he is young. He still has time to add that to his repertoire.

Undrafted Free Agent Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Markus Howard, 21 years old, 5’11, Marquette
2. Sam Merrill, 24 years old, 6’5, Utah State
3. Myles Powell, 23 years old, 6’2, Seton Hall

Pacers Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Justin Holiday $5,720,400
2. JaKarr Sampson $1,737,274
II. Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
1. Alize Johnson $1,916,153
III. Non-Guaranteed Contract
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1. T.J. McConnell $3,500,000


IV. Dead Cap Space
1. Monta Ellis $2,245,400
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($12,226,295)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): ($8,765,262)

Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
▪ Players to keep:
1. Justin Holiday (Projected $5,000,000-$8,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 50.6%]
After a solid one year in Indiana for the journeyman shooting guard, it looks as if
Justin Holiday may have found a permanent home. More of the same from Holiday in
doing his job as a role player off the bench averaged 25.0 MPG, 8.3 PPG, shooting
42.8% FG and 40.5% 3FG. He does a good job playing off the ball in screening
actions. 21% of his half court buckets came off screening actions. Compiling those
screening actions with cuts to the rim, and Holiday is in the 87th percentile for points
off movement per 75 possessions. Also, with great value defensively, Holiday can
guard multiple positions. He spent at least 23% of his possessions guard the two, three,
and four positions. Holiday’s biggest attribute cannot be shown statistically. Holiday
was deemed as a very vocal leader and locker room presence that helped Indiana really
have a solid playoff year. As the Pacers would most likely want to keep Holiday, being
over the league salary cap limit will limit their ability to negotiate but may be able to
use their mid-level exception to bring back the seven-year veteran.
2. JaKarr Sampson (Projected League Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on 1 Current Deal: 20.6%]
JaKarr Sampson brought soft skills to the Indiana Pacers. He brought effort and
physicality to the team. When T.J. Warren was out for injury, the Pacers entrusted
Sampson to fill that role. Sampson’s energy and scrappiness has been vital to the
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Pacers team and the impact he has on the floor. He fought hard for his offensive
rebounds, 62.7% of which were contested. On defense, Sampson is a great interior
defender. He contested 33% of rim attempts when he is on the floor and opponents
shot 14% worse at the rim when Sampson was contesting. Hustle points and defensive
prowess will most likely earn Sampson a spot back on this roster next season to
provide a needed grit and grinder.
3. Alize Johnson (Projected League Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on 1 Current Deal: 27.7%]
Splitting majority of his time between the NBA and Indiana’s G-League affiliate Fort
Wayne, Alize Johnson has become a player Pacer’s management wants to see continue
to grow and develop. Showing his ability similar to JaKarr Sampson with energy and
effort every time he touches the court, his breakout start at the end of the seeding
games showed great promise in what the front office has seen in the young man. In
one of the final games of the regular season Johnson put up his first career double-
double with 11 points, 17 rebounds (seven offensive), and four assists which resulted
in a locker room mob from his teammates. The potential in his game and respect
amongst his teammates we should see Johnson become more of a rotation man this
next season.
4. T.J. McConnell (Non-Guaranteed $3,500,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 82%]
T.J. McConnell had an all-around consistent year in his first season in Indiana.
Keeping his steady dose of 6.5 PPG, 5.0 AST, 51.6% FG in 18.7 MPG McConnell
always comes in to control and run the offense. He does a great job of playing within
his role. His passing aggressiveness rates in the 17th percentile amongst guards. Even
when attacking the rim, he is not aggressive. He passes out of 57% of his drives to the
rim. McConnell is a game manager that is extremely efficient with the passes he
makes. The Pacers know what they are getting with McConnell, and with his contract
becoming fully guaranteed at $3.5 million, McConnell should be back in a Pacers
uniform next season.

Free Agent Targets


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Option #1:
Kyle Korver 6’6 235lbs 34 years old, C/PF/SF, Current Salary: $439,475
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 62.8%
At 39 years old, Kyle Korver can still contribute to a contender. During the 2019-20 season,
Korver still managed to shoot over 40% from beyond the arc on 4.1 attempts per game. He still
strikes fear in defenses when he comes off pin downs and DHO actions. For his projected
minimum contract, he adds great value. In total, shooting 42.3% on catch and shoot threes and
44.2% on corner threes, Korver is still one of the best shooters in the league. He also a high
character addition to a locker room that brings great leadership qualities and mentorship with
him.

Option #2:
Troy Daniels 6’8 235lbs 34 years old, SG/SF, Current Salary: $439,475
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 33.7%
Troy Daniels has been a solid role player on a variety of teams. As a career 40% three-point
shooter, Daniels can space the floor and allow driving players to dish it out to a reliable beyond
the arc threat while also creating the spacing for that drive to happen. Last season with the Los
Angeles Lakers, Daniels shot 40.6% from corner three pointers. Daniels has been a valuable
veteran presence and locker room booster who teammates love playing with. The most likely
spot for Daniels is as an insurance policy at the guard spot for a playoff contender.

Option #3:
Emmanuel Mudiay 6’4 235lbs 24 years old, PG, Current Salary: $1,620,564
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 69.6%
Jeff Green is a solid veteran presence who provides excellent value for a minimum contract. He
really showed what he can contribute once he got traded to Houston and started receiving
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minutes at the five spot. He has shown some streaky shooting in the past, but really took control
in their bubble playoff run. He shot 42.6% from three on 54 attempts. Green has consistently
shown an ability to step up in the playoffs throughout his career (51.9% conversion on corner
threes in the playoffs vs 38.5% conversion rate during the regular season, an increase of
+13.4%). Green is also good at moving and cutting off the ball, being in the 90th percentile in
Bball Index’s stats regarding off-ball cuts. On the defensive side of the ball, Green was a force in
the playoffs. When guarding isolations, he gave up 0.73 PPP on a FG% of 36% according to
Stats.NBA. He showed versatility during the regular season as well, guarding every position for
at least 13% of his defensive possessions. Green has carved out a new role with Houston as a
legitimate small ball five. This role could translate to a multitude of playoff contenders.

Option #4:
Marco Belinelli 6’5 220lbs 34 years old, SF/SG, Current Salary: $5,846,154
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 86.9%
Marco Belinelli is a perimeter oriented off ball wing. 81.9% of his shots came from beyond 16
feet. He operates off the catch, with almost 90% of his shots being assisted. He moves well of the
ball and is used in a lot of screening actions. Outside of his ability to shoot off the dribble, there
is not much there offensively. He knows his role as a strict shooter and not a playmaker as he had
a TO% of 5.3%. On defense, he is a negative. He struggles to create turnovers, averaging 0.2
steals and blocks combined per game. He gives some good effort, but just does not possess the
athleticism to be a plus on this end of the floor. Belinelli had a great age 31 season just two years
ago with the Philadelphia 76ers. He has regressed from that some during his second stint in San
Antonio, but still projects as a decent role player who will fight for an end of rotation spot.

Option #5:
Evan Turner 6’5 220lbs 34 years old, SF/PG, Current Salary: $5,846,154
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 40.8%
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Evan Turner has shown the ability to play the point forward position. Turner has been a great
leader on the second unit able to control the tempo, command the offense, and create for his
teammates. This past season Turner only appeared in 19 games for the Timberwolves, his lowest
in his entire career. Throughout his ten years in the league, Turner has been an intricate part of
winning ball clubs outside of this past year. Turner ranks in the 97th percentile in passing
aggressiveness and 79th percent in passing versatility. Tuner is crafty and can put teammates in
the best position to get points on the board. His playmaking talent ranks in the 81st percentile
and a team looking for a leader of the second unit Turner will add great value and leadership.

Trade Scenarios
1. Atlanta Hawks
Hawks Receiving: Victor Oladipo, 2021 1st Round Pick
Pacers Receiving: Dewayne Dedmon, De’Andre Hunter, 2021
1st Round Pick
After seeing the Indiana Pacers success this past season without him, Victor Oladipo should be
traded for the third time in his career. The former star of the Pacers missed majority of the 2019-
2020 recovering from his knee injury. Once he returned to the court, Oladipo slowly showed
signs of why he was an asset before the injury. It has been clear that Oladipo also wants out of
Indiana, and Atlanta could be the best suitor to push across a deal. Atlanta is looking to make a
playoff push. Oladipo has shown he can be a first or second option on a playoff contender. The
Pacers would be receiving De’Andre Hunter is the key part to the deal, who Atlanta took with
the fourth overall pick two drafts ago. At 22 years old, Hunter can be a piece Indiana looks to
groom into a future priority for their roster. Dewayne Dedmon acts as a salary filler, and the pick
swap greatly benefits Indiana, who has no first round pick this season.

2. New York Knicks


Knicks Receiving: Victor Oladipo
Pacers Receiving: Wayne Ellington, Elfrid Payton, Kevin Knox,
2020 1st Round Pick (27th overall), 2020 2nd Round Pick
(38th overall)
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The Knicks and Victor Oladipo have been linked throughout the offseason, and it is quite
apparent that New York is ready to try and contend again. Oladipo would improve the Knicks
roster on both ends of the floor, being the focal point offensively. For the Indiana Pacers, the key
to this trade is getting draft picks and unguaranteed contracts. The Pacers only have the
54th overall pick in this year’s draft so adding a late first rounder and additional second rounder
can help add more talent to their roster, as well as the benefit of gaining former 9th overall pick
and 21-year-old Kevin Knox. Wayne Ellington and Elfrid Payton are both on non-guaranteed
contracts that the Pacers could dump to clear up cap space.

3. Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans


Mavericks Receiving: Victor Oladipo, Nicolo Melli
Pelicans Receiving: Maxi Kleber
Pacers Receiving: Delon Wright, Justin Jackson, Michael Kidd-
Gilchrist, Josh Hart, 2020 1st Round Pick (18th overall)
In this three-team deal, the Dallas Mavericks take on the final year of Victor Oladipo’s contract.
He would fit in well as a defensive-minded guard next to Luka Doncic. He may hurt their
offensive numbers slightly, but dramatically improves their point of attack defense. To get the
former All-Star, they give up a lot of depth and draft capital. They also receive Nicolo Melli, a
theoretical downgrade from Maxi Kleber. New Orleans gives up Josh Hart, who fell out of their
rotation, and Nicolo Melli to upgrade their stretch big. Amongst bigs, his shooting gravity ranks
in the 94th percentile compared to Melli, who ranks in the 76th percentile. For Oladipo, Indiana
will receive three rotation players in Delon Wright, Michael Kidd-Glichrist, and Josh Hart. Justin
Jackson fits into this trade as salary filler. The 18th pick also adds value as Indiana does not
currently have a pick in the first round.
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LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS


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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
XXXVIII. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 2: Pick 57
XXXIX. Team Needs
a. Bench Depth
i. The Clippers have three rotation players hitting free agency
with Marcus Morris, Montrezl Harrell, and Reggie Jackson.
There is a real chance that Morris and Harrell especially get
priced out of the Clippers price range.
b. Shot Creators
i. Kawhi Leonard led the Clippers in playoff assists. Leonard
showed in Toronto that he is at his best when playing as a
focused scorer, not creating for others. Patrick Beverley is not
enough of an offensive threat to create shots for others.
XL. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Clippers Free Agency
IX. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
X. Free Agent Targets
XI. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 2 Pick #57


Choice #1
Jalen Harris 22 yrs old, PG, Nevada
6’5 195lbs
2019-20 (30 games): 21.7 PPG; 6.5 RPG; 2.9 APG; 1.1
STL; 44.6% FG; 36.2% 3FG

Jalen Harris fits into the late second round as a


sparkplug off the bench. He excels on the
offensive end of the floor as a three-level scorer
and creator for others out of the pick and roll. He
is a mixed bag on defense.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Solid touch around the rim • Inconsistent shooter off the catch, should
• Makes the simple read in the PNR be used primarily on the ball
• Top level scorer in isolation and PNR • Questionable reads at times in PNR
• Shows flashes of team defense rotations • Struggles guarding POA
and tags • Inconsistent on defense, even lazy at
• Shows intelligence on defense when times when guarding PNR
chasing shooters off of screening actions • Gets beat downhill frequently
• Decent change of speed, acceleration
NBA Comparison: Trey Burke, Austin Rivers
 Jalen Harris has value as a creator in bench rotations. His scoring is by far his top
skill as he can score from three, midrange, and the paint. His age is an issue as there
is not much room to develop, but he is a finished project that can step into an NBA
rotation. He would fit in well with a contender who needs cheap rotation players.
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Choice #2
Yam Madar 19 yrs old, G, Hapoel Tel Aviv (BSL)
6’3 180lbs
2019-20 (32 games): 10.6 PPG; 2.4 RPG; 3.4 APG; 2.6 TO, 1.0
STL; 44.4% FG; 26.7% 3FG

Yam Madar improved his draft stock toward the end of


the BSL season. He is a defense first guard with a great
motor. He defends well in the pick and roll as well as
point of attack actions. Most of his offense comes from
5-20 feet. He has potential to be a three-point shooter
but still has a way to go.
Strengths Weaknesses
• FT% points toward progression with • Undersized off-ball guard
shooting (81.2%) • Decision making is a minus, not a
• Creates space in the midrange dynamic facilitator
• Decent touch on floater • Statistically poor three-point shooter
• Invites contact (26.7%)
• Can pick up 94ft on defense • Below average athleticism, plays
• Fights hard through screens primarily below the rim
• Exceptional motor • Questions about how he would do with
increased volume

NBA Comparison: Patrick Beverly, Ish Smith


 Yam Madar is an unknown commodity with solid potential. He is a plus on defense
immediately due to the effort he gives on that end of the floor. He would fit well in
DHO actions as he can get downhill without isolating on the ball. His shooting still
needs work, but he is young. He still has time to add that to his repertoire.
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Choice #3
Killian Tillie 22 yrs old, C, Gonzaga
6’10 220lbs; 6’10 Wingspan
2019-20 (24 games): 13.6 PPG; 5.0 RPG; 1.9 APG; 1.0
STL; 53.5% FG; 40.0% 3FG

Killian Tillie is an extremely talented big man


who has faced serious injury concerns. He offers
versatility and the ability to stretch the floor on
offense. Defensively, he is a high IQ player with
solid positioning and good footwork. His outcome
depends mainly on his health.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Good shooting range • Missed 37 college games due to hip, foot,
• Quick decision maker in passing and knee injuries
situations, potential in short roll • Lacks vertical athleticism, will not be a
• Can post up mismatches with good touch rim protector
and footwork • Poor screen setter, slips almost every
• Smart when slipping screens screening action
• High IQ defender • Cannot hedge or drop vs PNR
• Uses length well in passing lanes • Closeouts are inconsistent
• Good positional defender in post
NBA Comparison: Nicolo Melli, Nemanja Bjelica, Maxi Kleber
 Killian Tillie is a legitimate stretch five. He will step in on offense specifically in pick
and pop actions. Tillie can also be effective in DHOs with effective cutters around
him. Defensively, he will be competent due to his solid foundation on the positioning
and mental side. His health is going to be his swing skill. His medical records could
dictate his draft stock.
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Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Nate Hinton, 21 years old, 6’5, Houston
2. Kylor Kelley, 23 years old, 7’0, Oregon State
3. Lamar Stevens, 23 years old, 6’8, Penn State

Clippers Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Marcus Morris $15,000,000
2. Montrezl Harrell $6,000,000
3. Patrick Patterson $1,620,564
4. Reggie Jackson $512,721
II. Player Option
1. JaMychal Green $5,005,350
III. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Joakim Noah $2,692,991
Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($2,683,937)
Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $3,121,318
Who stays, Who goes
▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Marcus Morris (Projected $10,000,000-$15,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 61.8%]
Marcus Morris was a solid shooter for the Clippers during his time with the team. He
shot 37.7% from three on almost 150 attempts (regular season and playoffs). He may
have been given too much time as an on-ball scorer though. Regarding his three-point
shooting, he had terrible shot selection. He took extremely difficult shots, therefore
adding a lot of variance to his scoring. He scored 0.89 PPP in isolation, which is not
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very valuable when Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are the other alternatives to end
an isolation possession. Morris is at his most efficient when playing as a spot up
shooter. He also has shown the ability to play bully ball in the post when he gets a
smaller matchup. Outside of these post touches, he really struggles to get to the rim.
Less than 10% of his shots are at the rim. Defensively, Morris is a negative by most
statistical standards. Where he does add value, is as an agitator and enforcer. He was
tied for the most technical fouls (16) with Russell Westbrook. He averaged 2.9
personal fouls per game, good for 28th amongst qualified players. Morris adds a lot of
value to this roster, but unless he takes a pay cut at a Mid-Level Exception, he will get
priced out of the Clipper’s range as they do not own his Bird Rights.
2. Montrezl Harrell (Projected $15,000,000-$20,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 34.1%]
Montrezl Harrell will most likely get priced out the Clipper’s desired range as he is
projected receive a significant pay raise. Signing Harrell at this rate would put the
Clippers dangerously close to the luxury tax as they currently have $21 million in tax
space. Harrell was a significant piece of their 2020 lineup, but it really depends on
whether they are willing to dive into the luxury tax or not. Harrell is the reigning Sixth
Man of the Year after averaging 18.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks on 58/0/65.8
shooting splits. He played all his minutes at the five after splitting time between the
four and five earlier in his career. Offensively, he is an elite roll man who draws extra
attention from wings on digs and rotations. He also showed some decent volume on
isolation possessions, averaging 5.9 per 75 possessions. He was not extremely efficient
in these actions but showed a propensity for creating contact and drawing fouls that
netted him points at the free throw line. Defensively, Harrell is an active defender on
the interior, but does not add much value outside of that. Opponents chased after him
in the pick and roll, looking to isolate him on the perimeter. Harrell was a significant
piece of their 2020 lineup, but it really depends on whether they are willing to dive
into the luxury tax or not in regard to whether they will bring him back.
3. Patrick Patterson (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on 1 Year Deal: 34.5%]
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Patrick Patterson is a floor spacing four man. He shot over 70% of his shots from
behind the three-point line. He contributed 1.16 PPP, good for the 87th percentile
amongst wings. He does not add much value besides spotting up and creating shooting
gravity. He cannot move very well off the ball and cannot create when on the ball. He
cannot create opportunities in the paint as he averaged less than one paint touch per 75
possessions. He is an average rebounder. He shows some potential on the offensive
glass, but only a third of his offensive boards were contested, showing that he may
have just been in the right place at the right time. On defense, he is a hustle guy. He
recovered 86% of loose balls, showing some grit and intensity. Overall analytical
metrics point to Patterson being a plus player or least an average player. Regarding his
fit with the Clippers, he could be on his way out as he was completely left out of the
playoff rotation. He played 10 total minutes spread across 2 games. This does not bode
well for his future standing with team as he hits the free agent market.
4. Reggie Jackson (Projected Mid-Level Exception)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 86.5%]
Reggie Jackson was a midseason pick up after he was bought out from the Detroit
Pistons. He added decent value in the regular season but struggled to much in the
playoffs besides shoot off the catch. He shot an extremely high percentage in the
playoffs (53.1 3PT%) but was poor from inside the line (25% 2PT%). The Clippers
need another on ball creator and Jackson could not provide that. His assist percentage
was cut in half from the regular season to playoffs while his turnover percentage did
not see that significant of a dip. Defensively, he was an average player. He was not
much of a playmaker, struggling to create steals both on ball and in passing lanes. He
also had solid defenders behind him, allowing him to close out hard and without much
of an attempt to recover. The Clippers are better off spending their Mid-Level
Exception elsewhere, as there are more adequate playmakers in this free agency class.
▪ Players to keep:
1. JaMychal Green (Player Option: $5,005,350)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 45.6%]
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JaMychal Green will most likely be opting into his $5 million playing option just
considering the instability of this offseason and the potential for immediate guaranteed
money. Green, like Patterson, is a stretch four who uses the majority of his possessions
on catch and shoot threes. Green saw minutes in the playoff rotation unlike Patterson.
Green stepped his game up when he got into playoff minutes. His TS% jumped +10%,
his corner three-point percentage jumped +1.7% while the rate at which he shot corner
threes more than doubled. In lower volumes, Green added some value in the post and
as a pop man. While being a pop man, he provides gravity, allowing the ball handler
more space to get downhill. He is one of the best wings in the league at attacking the
glass. He resides in the 80th or 90th percentile in basically every rebounding statistic
amongst wings, both on the offensive and defensive side. He flaunted an extremely
strong 24% defensive rebounding rate, but that dropped to 12% once the playoffs
started. Green should be a member of the Clippers 2021 rotation.
2. Joakim Noah (Non-Guaranteed $2,692,991)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 55.1%]
Joakim Noah did not see much playing time at all during his short time with the
Clippers. He played 50 regular season minutes and 2 minutes in the playoffs. Noah has
not touched 750 minutes since the 2016-17 season, playing 783 minutes in the last
three seasons combined. While Noah added tremendous value in Chicago, his career
has been on the downturn since signing a deal in New York in the summer of 2016
during the salary cap spike. On the offensive end of the floor, Noah is a complete
negative. The only area where he could be competent is his passing and his screening.
His passing is not as strong anymore just due to his complete lack of scoring gravity.
When screening, he provides serious hustle by opening up quickly and diving to the
rim. Defensively, he has lost a lot of his athleticism, but he gives so much effort and
energy. He is a vocal leader that can control the court. Noah will not see much playing
time, but he is a great veteran locker room presence. When Noah is locked in, he
deserves an NBA roster spot.

Free Agent Targets


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Option #1:
Jeff Green 6’8 235lbs 34 years old, C/PF/SF, Current Salary: $439,475
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on 1 Year Deal: 69.6%
Jeff Green is a solid veteran presence who provides excellent value for a minimum contract. He
really showed what he can contribute once he got traded to Houston and started receiving
minutes at the five spot. He has shown some streaky shooting in the past, but really took control
in their bubble playoff run. He shot 42.6% from three on 54 attempts. Green has consistently
shown an ability to step up in the playoffs throughout his career (51.9% conversion on corner
threes in the playoffs vs 38.5% conversion rate during the regular season, an increase of
+13.4%). Green is also good at moving and cutting off the ball, being in the 90th percentile in
Bball Index’s stats regarding off-ball cuts. On the defensive side of the ball, Green was a force in
the playoffs. When guarding isolations, he gave up 0.73 PPP on a FG% of 36% according to
Stats.NBA. He showed versatility during the regular season as well, guarding every position for
at least 13% of his defensive possessions. Green has carved out a new role with Houston as a
legitimate small ball five. This role could translate to a multitude of playoff contenders.

Option #2:
Rajon Rondo 6’1 185lbs, 34 years old, C, Current Salary: $2,564,753
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$5,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 45.6%
Rajon Rondo will be a coveted free agent after being a value piece of a Los Angeles Lakers
roster that went on to win the NBA title. He stepped his game up in the playoffs, doubling his
win shares per 48 minutes from 0.068 to 0.144. On offense, he showed that he is still a capable
three-point shooter. His percentages from three, both off the dribble (29.6%, 37th percentile
amongst point guards) and off the catch (35.2%, 25th percentile amongst guards) were both
below average. Rondo took the most threes per 36 minutes of his career this past season (4.6
attempts), so that added volume helps negate the lower percentage. He is a creative finisher
around the rim with solid body control that gets downhill with his first step and ability to make
defenders ride his hip. 95% of his made shots at the rim were unassisted. Most of his offensive
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value comes from is his facilitating. Even at 34 years old, he is still one of the best passers in the
league because of his high IQ and skill at making difficult passes. He does a great job of working
within the offense and making sure his passes lead to high efficiency shots. He averaged 8.4
passes per 75 possessions that led to made threes, rim attempts, or free throws. He has regressed
some as a defender, as he is a step slower and still deals with high variance in his motor. He still
has value even for name recognition as a defender as he is not typically targeted in isolations. He
provides versatility on this end of the floor as well as he spent at least 18% of his defensive
possessions guarding each of the guard spots and the small forward. Rondo will be a target for
contenders as they look to add depth to their point guard rotations.

Option #3:
Marco Belinelli 6’5 220lbs 34 years old, SF/SG, Current Salary: $5,846,154
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on 1 Year Deal: 86.9%
Marco Belinelli is a perimeter oriented off ball wing. 81.9% of his shots came from beyond 16
feet. He operates off the catch, with almost 90% of his shots being assisted. He moves well of the
ball and is used in a lot of screening actions. Outside of his ability to shoot off the dribble, there
is not much there offensively. He knows his role as a strict shooter and not a playmaker as he had
a TO% of 5.3%. On defense, he is a negative. He struggles to create turnovers, averaging 0.2
steals and blocks combined per game. He gives some good effort, but just does not possess the
athleticism to be a plus on this end of the floor. Belinelli had a great age 31 season just two years
ago with the Philadelphia 76ers. He has regressed from that some during his second stint in San
Antonio, but still projects as a decent role player who will fight for an end of rotation spot.

Option #4:
Trey Burke 6’0 185lbs 27 years old, PG, Current Salary: $229,220
Projected Annual Salary: Mid-Level Exception
Probability to Add Positive Value on 2 Year Deal: 45.2%
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Trey Burke was a solid pickup for Dallas as a replacement player for the NBA bubble. In low
volume, he operated as a secondary creator and scorer. He shot 42.7% from three on 75 attempts
this year. That jumped to 50% off the dribble, but on much lower volume. Burke is a legitimate
isolation scorer. He drew a foul on 30% of his isolation shot attempts, good for the 94th
percentile amongst guards. He is a solid passer as well with a 3.5:1.0 AST:TO ratio. His turnover
rate has been below 10% every year since 2016-17. He has legitimate offensive value as a spark
plug creator off the bench when high usage guards need a break. Burke may even have starter
potential in spot games as he cracked the starting lineup for half of Dallas’ playoff games. He
can be counted on for double digits points when given a legitimate role. Defensively, is not
anything special, but he does a good job of disrupting shot selection when guarding on the ball.
He did a decent job at play making with a steal percentage of 2.3%. Trey Burke fits into a
increasingly valuable archetype as a secondary ball handler and a point of attack defender.
Playoff teams are beginning to realize that off the dribble shooting is an extremely valuable skill,
and Burke can provide that at a low price point.

Option #5:
Kyle O’Quinn 6’9 250lbs 30 years old, C/PF, Current Salary: $1,620,564
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on 1 Year Deal: 54.7%
Kyle O’Quinn is a strong veteran presence to any locker room. His value does not stem just from
his on-court production, but off the court as well. On the court, he is a low volume big that can
play spot minutes as a second or third center. He is a good finisher off dump downs and roll
actions. He is a good rim runner, adding 1.57 PPP in transition actions. He also took a third of
his shots from three but did not provide much value in terms of making those shots. He could
have some value as a pick and pop big as his three-point shooting percentage rose to 38% on
above the break threes, although this was on low volume. O’Quinn is also a very good passer as
far as bigs go. He averaged almost six assists per 36 minutes and created 13.2 assisted points per
75 possessions (95th percentile amongst centers). On the defensive end of the floor, he is an
average perimeter defender. He does not move very well in space but has a high basketball IQ
and is typically a good positional defender. He is a good interior defender though, deterring 41%
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of rim attempts with a BLK% of 6.5%. He is a minimum veteran that can add value to a
contending team.

Trade Scenarios
1. Brooklyn Nets
Nets Receiving: Patrick Beverly, 2022 2nd Round Pick, and 2022
2nd Round Pick via Atlanta)
Clippers Receiving: Spencer Dinwiddie
This trade gives the Clippers another shot creator while dumping around $2 million in salary.
Lou Williams has really struggled to create in isolations this past season, while Spencer
Dinwiddie exceled at scoring on ball and finishing around the rim on unassisted possessions. He
had some issues on the defensive end of the floor, but these could be remedied in the smaller
offensive role that he would take with the Clippers organization. Patrick Beverly is a nice piece
for this roster, but that added offensive creation may outweigh his defensive prowess for the
Clippers. He could ass some value to a locker room as a mediator that has publicly struggled to
stay together.

2. Detroit Pistons
Pistons Receiving: Landry Shamet, JaMychal Green, 2020 2nd
Round Pick (57th overall)
Clippers Receiving: Derrick Rose
This trade helps the Los Angeles Clippers in the short term as they need a point guard who can
create his own shot and facilitate for others. Derrick Rose can fill that role perfectly. In recent
years, Rose has adapted well to his everchanging role. In Detroit, he did a good job of creating
for others in an offensive scheme that did not facilitate shot creation. He averaged 25.1 potential
assists per 100 passes, in the 90th percentile amongst guards. He also does a good job of getting
downhill. Even post injury, he attacks the high hip well in isolations to create space. For Detroit,
this move focuses on the future of the organization. Landry Shamet is a solid wing that adds
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value as a floor spacer. He is a plus defender that can be developed in a higher usage role in
Detroit. JaMychal Green is a salary filler in this trade.

3. San Antonio Spurs


Spurs Receiving: Rodney McGruder, Mfiondu Kabengele, 2020
2nd Round Pick (57th overall), 2022 2nd Round Pick
Clippers Receiving: Trey Lyles, Derrick White
This trade is a salary dump for a San Antonio team that adds depth to the Los Angeles Clippers.
With the expectation of the Clippers losing some depth during free agency, this move sures up
their bench with Derrick White and Trey Lyles. White adds value as a point of attack defender
and sufficient facilitator. Lyles is a stretch big that struggles at times as an interior defender but
makes up for it with his three-point shooting ability. In return for the two rotation players, San
Antonio receives two second round picks. These are typically coveted assets by a San Antonio
front office that takes advantage of scouting lesser known prospects. Mfiondu Kabengele did not
play much on the Clippers but still carries potential from his time at FSU. Rodney McGruder is a
salary filler in this deal. His contract is unguaranteed for the 2021-22 season, so he is essentially
on a one-year deal, which the Spurs can use for cap flexibility after next season.
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LOS ANGELES LAKERS


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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
XLI. Current Draft Picks
a. N/A
XLII. Team Needs
a. Third Option
i. The only bad thing you can say about the defending champion Lakers is
that, at times, they were far too predictable last season. The domination of
LeBron James and Anthony Davis was on display the whole playoffs, but
the Lakers should look to get a consistent third option this offseason. As
James inevitability (it will happen, right?) slows down over the next few
years the Lakers will need to have someone else who can control the ball
and run the offense in his absence. General Manager, Rob Pelinka, could
look to make a trade to bring in this piece.
XLIII. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Lakers Free Agency
XIV. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XV. Free Agent Targets
XVI. Trade Scenarios
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Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Trent Forrest, 22 years old, 6’4, Florida State
2. Nate Darling, 22 years old, 6’5, Delaware
3. Freddie Gillespie, 23 years old, 6’9, Baylor

Lakers Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Markieff Morris $2,100,000
2. Jared Dudley $1,620,564
3. Dwight Howard $1,620,564
4. J.R. Smith $1,620,564
5. Dion Waiters $1,620,564
II. Player Option
1. Anthony Davis $28,751,774
2. Kentavious Caldwell Pope $8,543,746
3. Avery Bradley $5,005,350
4. Javale McGee $4,200,000
5. Rajon Rondo $2,692,991
III. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Quinn Cook $3,000,000

 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($11,367,748)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $34,436,253

Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
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1. Jared Dudley (Projected Minimum)


[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 0.9%]
Jared Dudley played just over 350 minutes this season. His value to an organization
does not come from his on-court production as his minutes typically come from
garbage time or an injury depleted rotation. His value comes from his ability to
contribute to a locker room and mentor young prospects. He was a guiding voice for
the Los Angeles Lakers this season as he mentored Kyle Kuzma and Talen Horton
Tucker. The only reason for the Lakers to bring him back, is for locker room
continuity. At 35 years old, that may not be best for Lakers.
J.R. Smith (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 50.2%]
J.R. Smith joined the Los Angeles Lakers following the news of Avery Bradley sitting
out the NBA restart. He was projected to be a piece of their playoff rotation, but that
was not the case. Outside of the Portland series, Smith played 20 minutes. Just on the
merits of being a substitute player for the bubble, there is not a great chance for the
Los Angeles Lakers to resign him. Smith is also 35 years old, and he may be on the
outside looking in.
2. Dion Waiters (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 83.4%]
Dion Waiters had a tumultuous 2019-20 season. Beginning the season with the
eventual runner-up Miami Heat, he was waived following a three-team trade that
landed him with the Memphis Grizzlies. With the Los Angeles Lakers, Waiters
showed flashes of the secondary ball handling he can supply, running some impressive
pick and roll actions with the Lakers big men during the eight-game bubble regular
season. Waiters did not dress for the final 14 games as the Los Angeles Lakers made
her playoff run, and now enters free agency as a polarizing player. The Lakers could
possibly bring him back for the veteran minimum and try to resuscitate his career, but
there will most likely be more stable options that can provide much of the same
Waiters can.
3. Quinn Cook (Projected Minimum)
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[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 72.4%]


Quinn Cook had a quiet 2019-20 season on the Lakers. The 27-year old point guard
played a very small role on the Lakers, often relegated to garbage time and spot
appearances in real action. Offensively, Cook provides some reliable shooting from
outside but, little else. He does well as an off-ball shooter. He shot 45% on catch and
shoot threes, in the 89th percentile amongst wings. Defensively, Cook is viewed as a
negative, posting a -2.5 defensive RAPTOR rating and there is little room for
improvement given his small frame. At 6’2 with a 6’4 wingspan, he does not offer
much in passing lanes. He averaged 1.3 deflections per 75 possessions, in the 7th
percentile amongst guards. Cook did prove to be a great locker room presence in Los
Angeles, and that would be a leading factor if he was brought back.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Markieff Morris (Projected $6,000,000-$8,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 4.7%]
Markieff Morris’s career took a turn for the better this season. After giving up just
over $4.5 million in his buyout with the Detroit Pistons, he was picked up by the Los
Angeles Lakers after he cleared waivers. The 31-year-old forward broke out in the
bubble, proving to be one of the most important pieces on a championship Lakers
team. During the regular season, Morris spent 3.4 possessions per 75 possessions in
isolation actions on offense, in the 85th percentile amongst wings. His game changed
considerably from the regular season to the playoffs. In the playoffs, Morris added
legitimate value as a floor spacer, cashing 42.0% of his shots from three on just over
three attempts per game. It was also the first time in his career (regular season or
playoffs) that he shot over 70% of his shots from behind the arc. On defense, Morris is
not the best statistically. His value on this end of the floor comes from his ability to
play the enforcer role. He is extremely vocal and relishes in taking on the hardest
matchup. If Morris is willing to accept his role as a 3&D wing, then he is a priority for
the Lakers. The Lakers do not have bird rights on him, so it is imperative that he signs
before they resign Anthony Davis to a supermax.
2. Dwight Howard (Projected Minimum)
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[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 90.3%]


Dwight Howard accomplished his goal of winning an NBA championship.
Offensively, Howard’s role was limited to lobs and offensive rebounds, but his
efficiency reached new levels. He shot 81.4% at the rim this year, which is a career
high for Howard. He averaged 1.3 PPP on putbacks, in the 89th percentile amongst
bigs. Defensively, Dwight still proves to be an above average rim protector and shot
blocker as he contested 40% of attempts at the rim (70th percentile amongst bigs), but
now has a problem with fouling as he averaged 6.1 fouls per 36 minutes. He works
extremely well within his role and should be a candidate to resign.
3. Anthony Davis (Projected Maximum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 5 Year Deal: 0%]
Anthony Davis will opt out of his player option and resign to a multi-year deal. This
will most likely be the five-year supermax worth $266 million. He was virtually
impossible to guard in the bubble and proved that he can be a centerpiece on a
contender. His true shooting percentage jumped 5.5% from the regular season (61%)
to the postseason (66.5%). Davis is one of the most complete players in the NBA
today. He is a major plus at attacking the rim. 51.3% of his makes at the rim were
unassisted, in the 70th percentile amongst bigs. He shot 75.8% at the rim on plus
volume. When operating as a screener in the pick and roll, he does a great job of
getting the ball handler open looks as his gravity in these actions is in the 87th
percentile amongst bigs due to his ability to stretch the floor vertically. He averaged
8.3 points off assists per 75 possessions, in the 82nd percentile amongst bigs.
Defensively, he finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting. His 7’6”
wingspan helps him guard just about anyone. He dominated passing lanes, averaging
2.9 deflections per 75 possessions (94th percentile amongst bigs). He did not make a
ton of rotations to the rim this year because he mainly guarded forwards. When he did
rotate and contest shots, he blocked an insane 46.7% of his contests (100th percentile
amongst bigs). The Los Angeles Lakers will be quick to get paper to pen on a max
contract for Davis.
4. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Projected $8,000,000-$12,000,000)
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[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 3 Year Deal: 5.7%]


Kentavious Caldwell-Pope proved the Lakers front office right this past year. Though
many outside of the organization viewed him as overpaid, he filled his well on a
championship team. There were nights were the 3&D wing even expanded his game to
be their third scoring option. In the 21 playoff games this past season, Caldwell-Pope
posted a three-point percentage of 37.8% on 5.7 attempts from behind the arc per
game. He averaged 1.16 PPP on spot up situations, in the 83rd percentile of wings. On
defense, Caldwell Pope was given the toughest assignment most nights. He guarded
high usage players on 39.3% of his defensive possessions. One area where he does
lack is his ability to play down the lineup. He played down the lineup 36.3% of
possessions and struggled some with additional length and size. The Lakers should
look to retain Caldwell-Pope. He currently plans to opt out of his player option, most
likely to look for a multiyear deal.
5. Avery Bradley (Player Option $5,005,350)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 48%]
Avery Bradley is projected to opt in for his $5 million player option. This is most
likely due to a combination of factors. Teams may be unsure about signing him
because he opted out of the bubble. Teams may view the possibly of another version
of the bubble in 2021 as a reason to look in other directions. Bradley is a reliable 3&D
guard that has proven that he can be counted on for contributions on both ends.
Offensively, Bradley is limited to two dribble pullups and spot up opportunities. He
had a down shooting year as he shot 36.7% on catch and shoot threes. He was left
open on 30.1% of his attempts from three as well (87th percentile amongst guards). He
struggled to put the ball in the basket with relatively little defensive attention sent his
way. On defense, Bradley is a legitimate point of attack defender. He does a good job
of staying on his opponents’ hip and recovering when necessary. He was in the 98th
percentile amongst guards for defensive miles traveled per 75 possessions, pointing to
high effort on the defensive end of the floor.
6. JaVale McGee (Projected $3,000,000-$5,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 85.7%]
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JaVale McGee will most likely opt out of his $4.2 million player option. He sold his
house in Los Angeles in October. Obviously, this is not an end all be all, but it is a
significant fact as he is most likely looking for a multi-year contract by opting out. The
now three-time champion has cemented himself as a solid rotation player for teams
looking to contend. McGee has taken on a role as a starter, but rarely plays much in
late game situations. Offensively, McGee is a vertical lob threat and solid screener in
the pick and roll. He did a very good job of playing the role of an off-ball cutter as he
shot 79.2% on attempts off cuts, in the 98th percentile for bigs. He shot 74.3% on all
rim attempts. Defensively, McGee is a great rim deterrent and pick and roll defender.
He is a solid defender in space, so attacking him for switches does not work. He
extremely active around the rim. He contested 41.8% of rim attempts, in the 81st
percentile amongst bigs. He blocked 29.9% of those contests, in the 93rd percentile for
bigs. McGee has an extremely quick second jump and great motor. While he does
make some ill-advised on-court decisions at times, he is a hard worker who can add
value to most rosters. The Los Angeles Lakers should look to resign him.
7. Rajon Rondo (Projected $3,000,000-$5,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 45.6%]
Rajon Rondo proved again that he can turn it on whenever he wants. ‘Playoff Rondo’
played a huge part in the Lakers success during the bubble and should be a piece they
try to retain this offseason. From the regular season to the playoffs, his win shares per
48 minutes doubled from 0.068 to 0.144. His true shooting percentage jumped from
49.4% to 55.3% (+6.1%). The 34-year-old point guard ran the offense whenever
LeBron James needed a rest from the offensive load. He struggles to play off the ball,
as he has for the majority of his career. His basketball IQ and craftiness help him to be
of the best passers in the league. Although his defensive ratings are poor in mostly
every metric, he had some big moments when the Lakers needed them. He is rather
selective about his defensive motor but picks his spots correctly. Rondo will opt out of
his player option and look for a multi-year contract on the free agent market as other
contenders will be vying for his services.
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Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
D.J. Augustin 5’11 185lbs 32 years old, PG, Current Salary: $7,250,000
Projected Annual Salary: Mid-Level Exception
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 69.2%
D.J. Augustin is a solid veteran point guard. When on the ball, his value comes from attacking
downhill plus running half court sets. He averaged 0.94 PPP as a pick and roll ball handler, good
for the 76th percentile of point guards. He was not great at getting all the way downhill and
finishing but uses that advantage to facilitate for others. Augustin’s three-point percentage might
not show it, but Augustin is a great three-point shooter, specifically off the catch (46.5%). He did
not get the chance to in Orlando, but he would fit well as a secondary creator alongside a ball
dominant shot creator. Defensively, he does not add much value. He is a negative on that end of
the floor according to basically every metric, so that aspect of his game cannot be expected to
change at this point in his career. Using Augustin in the right role would provide a legitimate
veteran presence at the backup point guard spot.

Option #2:
Alec Burks 6’6 215lbs, 29 years old, SF/SG, Current Salary: $2,320,044
Projected Annual Salary: Mid-Level Exception
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 72.1%
Alec Burks has turned himself into a reliable bench scoring option. On offense, Burks had a +1.2
offensive RAPTOR rating. While on Golden State, Burks proved himself to be a playmaker as
well. In Golden State, Burks averaged 16.1 PPG and 3.1 APG on respectable efficiency. This
level of production can be sustainable if Burks is given the keys to a team’s bench unit and
allowed to take the shots, he took in Golden State. Defensively, Burks is quite frankly a liability.
At 6’6, Burks should be able to give smaller wings some issues due to his length, but the effort
has been nonexistent. It is all about fit for Burks this offseason and hopefully he can find a role
where he can flourish.
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Option #3:
Kent Bazemore 6’4 195lbs 31 years old, PG, Current Salary: $19,269,662
Projected Annual Salary: Mid-Level Exception
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 69.2%
Kent Bazemore has quickly become a veteran in this league and has taken on many roles in his
career. One role he has not taken on is a role player on a contending team. Bazemore is just
finishing up a large 4 year deal he signed in the regretful Summer of 2016 and should be
projected as a mid-level exception free agent this offseason. Offensively, Bazemore has declined
each year since 2015-16 but after a January 21st trade to Sacramento he seemed to find a groove,
posting 10.3 PPG and 5 RPG while shooting an impressive 38.4% from three. Defensively,
Bazemore is a huge plus. When evaluating his general statistics, the 1.7 SPG he got in
Sacramento to end last year is impressive but when you couple that with his +2.6 defensive
RAPTOR rating you begin to understand that Bazemore can be a difference maker on that end.
In the right bench role Bazemore will have a shot to be solid rotation player on whatever team
signs him this offseason.

Option#4
E’Twuan Moore 6’3 190lbs 31 years old, PG/SG, Current Salary: $8,664,928
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on 1 Year Deal: 41.6%
E’Twaun Moore is an outlier in the sense that he is a plus three-point shooter, while remaining
an average to below average free throw shooter. His main offensive role is to shoot threes off the
catch, and he does a great job at that, shooting over 37% from three each of the past three
seasons. A lot of his shots come off screening actions, and he knows how to navigate them well.
He also does a surprisingly good job in isolations, as he does a good job creating space. He is
also a plus at creating, opening the floor up for him some. Defensively, he does not add much
value. He was consistently attacked in pick and roll switches. Even when guarding his own man
on the perimeter, he did not add much value. He typically guards the worse guard or wing on the
court. He does a decent job in off-ball situations, reading passing lanes well and playing solid
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help. Moore can be a secondary creator off the bench in spot minutes, but mainly residing in an
off-ball shooting role.

Option #5:
Nerlens Noel 6’10 220 26 years old, C/PF, Current Salary: $2,028,594
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000-$10,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 48.4%
Noel is a rim running big who provides good rim protection. His offensive game is extremely
limited, this past season 61% of his field goals came from 0-3ft from the hoop. He relies on
others to create for him, lob opportunities, pick n’ rolls to the rim, and running the floor. This
season marked his career best VORP of 1.5 & his career best win shares of 5.

Trade Scenarios
1. Phoenix Suns
Suns Receiving: Danny Green, 2020 1st Round Pick (29th overall)
Lakers Receiving: Kelly Oubre Jr.
This deal adds a reliable third option to a Los Angeles Lakers team that lacked consistency from
their role players. Kelly Oubre is a wing with a fearless mentality. Oubre is coming off a career
year in Phoenix where he posted career highs in points per game and minutes played. Oubre shot
5.5 three-point attempts per game last season on 35.2% shooting and has shown the ability to
score off the dribble and at the rim. He does a great job of attacking the rim as he took 4.6 shots
at the rim per 75 possessions, in the 90th percentile amongst wings. He shot a league average rate
of 58.7% at the rim, but the volume is valuable in this case. Oubre expands the Los Angeles
Lakers offense from a two-man dance between LeBron James and Anthony Davis to a team
dynamic. For the Phoenix Suns, Danny Green brings a calming force to a team with all young
wings. Green would be looked upon for great defense and consistent outside shooting when
defenses collapse on Devin Booker or DeAndre Ayton. The first round pick they receive could
be used to draft a backup point guard, in the event Jevon Carter leaves in free agency.
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2. Indiana Pacers
Pacers Receiving: Danny Green, Kyle Kuzma & 2020 1st Round
Pick (29th overall)
Lakers Receiving: Victor Oladipo
This trade gives the Lakers a reliable third option and possibly even a third star if Victor Oladipo
can return to 2018 form. Oladipo is a solid perimeter defender and shot creator when healthy. For
Indiana, this trade is rather simple. They get a proven wing veteran in Danny Green and a young
piece in Kyle Kuzma. The Indiana Pacers return a very competitive roster. It seemed that when
Oladipo came back, the team had already moved on from him.

3. Sacramento Kings
Kings Receiving: Danny Green, Kyle Kuzma & 2020 1st Round
Pick (29th overall)
Lakers Receiving: Buddy Hield
The Los Angeles Lakers lacked perimeter shooting last year. Buddy Hield is an elite outside
shooter, and the Lakers would be able to surround him with plus defenders to mask his
deficiencies on that end. Hield has proven to be an effective weapon on offense, shooting a
career 54.5% effective field goal percentage. This past season, he shot 39.4% from three with
volume (9.6 attempts per game). This ability to shoot threes will enable LeBron James and
Anthony Davis to run their two-man game in the paint without as many help defenders. For
Sacramento, this deal gives them a fresh start from Hield while getting back a first-round pick, a
proven veteran in Danny Green, and a youthful wing in Kyle Kuzma. Green should slot in nicely
next to De’Aaron Fox, and Kuzma will most likely continue to come off the bench as an
oversized wing.
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MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
XLIV. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 2: Pick 40
XLV. Team Needs
a. Shooting/ Shot Creator.
i. Memphis ranked 23rd in the league in three-point percentage
and they don’t roster a single three-point specialist. Also, they
need a secondary ball handler/ shot creator.
b. Versatile Wing/ Defend and run in transition.
i. Memphis ranked 6th in the league in pace & 5th in the league in
frequency of offense coming from transition. They need to
acquire wings who can get out and run the break with Morant.
XLVI. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Grizzlies Free Agency
XII. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XIII. Free Agent Targets
XIV. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 2 PICK 40
Choice #1
Immanuel Quickley, 21 yrs old, G,
Kentucky
6’3 188lbs; 6’10” Wingspan
2019-20 (30 games): 16.1 PPG; 4.2 RPG; 1.9 APG;
0.9 STL; 41.7% FG; 42.8% 3FG

Immanuel Quickley is an undersized combo


guard. He is a much-improved shooter from
three as well as the free throw line. He
increased his efficiency and volume. On
defense, he has to improve as a team
defender and utilize his length.
Strengths Weaknesses
• +7 wingspan • Poor finisher at the rim
• Showed major improvement from • Undersized wing
freshman to sophomore year • Not a facilitator
• Three-point shooting on high volume (11.4% AST, 10.6% TOV)
• Elite free throw shooter • Does not create plays on defense
• Good PNR defender (1.6% STL, 0.5% BLK)
(allowed 0.58 PPP)

NBA Comparison: Mario Chalmers, Derrick White


 Immanuel Quickley’s main skill is that he is a three-point shooter at the off guard
spot. He has a solid release, and it should translate well to the NBA. Outside of that,
he does not offer much on offense as he struggles to finish aroumd the rim and does
not add value as a secondary facilitator either. He is undersized, so he may struggle to
guard down the lineup. His defensive PNR numbers bode well for his ability to guard
lead guards at times.
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Choice #2
Mason Jones 22 yrs old, G, Arkansas
6’5 200lbs
2019-20 (31 games): 22.0 PPG; 5.5 RPG; 3.4 APG; 1.6
STL; 3.2 TO; 45.3% FG; 35.1% 3FG

Mason Jones played juco ball before transferring


to Arkansas. He is a three-level scorer that can
generate buckets at will. He can make tough
shots off the dribble. He has potential to be a
PNR initiator. On defense, he is at his best when
guarding off the ball. He is limited by his
athleticism and age.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Three-level scorer • Limited athleticism
• Draws fouls at an extremely high rate • Age limits his ceiling
(0.668 FTr) • Forces turnovers, may improve with
• Uses his body well when attacking the rim smaller offensive role
• Creates space with sidestep and triple • Does not add value in rotations to the rim
threat moves • Quiet on defense
• Reads passing lanes well on defense
• Active defender on the ball
NBA Comparison: Fred VanVleet, Lou Williams
 Mason Jones is an immediate impact player as a scoring guard off the bench. He
operates as an on-ball scorer that can shoot off the dribble from deep and attack the
rim. He will be able to rely on his ability to draw fouls when he gets to the next level.
On defense, the goal is for him to be average. He will struggle to guard pick and roll
actions as well as point of attack, while having the foundational off-ball principles
down.
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Choice #3
Paul Reed 21 yrs old, F/C, DePaul
6’9 220lbs; 7’2” Wingspan
2019-20 (29 games): 15.1 PPG; 10.7 RPG; 1.6
APG; 2.6 BLK; 2.3 TO; 51.6% FG; 30.8% 3FG

Paul Reed is a defense first player. He is an


athletic force that can make plays on that
end of the floor. He averaged 4.5 BLK/STL
per game. Offensively, he is at his best in
transition but struggles in the half court.
Motor and effort are huge issues for Reed.
He is a great defender and hustle player
when he is locked in.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Finishes well around the rim • Does not care for setting screens
• Excels in transition • Low motor off the ball
• Spot up shooting in small volume • Inconsistent shooting mechanics
• Offensive rebounding • Poor shot selection
(11.1% ORB% and 3.3 per game) • Gets caught ball watching on defense and
• Rim protection hunting for steals / blocks
• (9.7% BLK% and 2.6 per game) • Gets into foul trouble
• Held defense • Needs to add size
NBA Comparison: Cheick Diallo, Jonathan Isaac
 Paul Reed has a high ceiling as a defensive force that can make plays at the rim and in
passing lanes. On offense, his ceiling is being a capable three-point shooter off the
catch. His effort and care for the game is a huge swing skill. He must consistently set
hard screens on offense and make correct rotations on defense. Foul trouble could
also follow him throughout his career if he chases blocks.
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Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Lamine Diane, 23 years old, 6’7, Cal State Northridge
2. Kristian Doolittle, 23 years old, 6’7, Oklahoma
3. Nate Darling, 22 years, old, 6’5, Delaware

Grizzlies Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Josh Jackson
2. Anthony Toliver
II. Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
1. De’Anthony Melton
III. Team Option
1. Jontay Porter $1,517,981
Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($223,254)
Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): ($3,202,303)

Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Josh Jackson (Projected $2,000,000-$4,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 97.6%]
Josh Jackson has not been able to find his role and has yet to prove his worth when
the Phoenix Suns picked him with the 4th overall pick in 2017. With Jackson’s raw
skill and great defensive ability, he will still get more opportunities from NBA teams
based on his potential Jackson showed promising signs this past season such as his
best defensive rating (106.2) and a career best 44% field goal percentage. The key for
him is whether or not he can stay locked in mentally for a full season. He will most
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likely receive offers at a higher dollar amount than Memphis is willing to pay to bring
him back. If they were able to retain him a minimum contract it would benefit them
with their young core.
2. Anthony Toliver (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 0.3%]
Anthony Toliver only played in 13 games for Memphis this past season. Toliver
struggled to score as his TS% sat at 51.3%, around five points below league average.
He scored 0.86 points per possession, in the 11th percentile amongst wings. Although
his shooting percentage from three jumped when he landed in Memphis, it was in
limited action as he averaged 18.2 minutes over 13 games. Defensively, he struggled
to guard on the perimeter and at the rim while matched up against low usage players.
Toliver is 35, and after spending the 2019-20 season with three teams, the 2020
offseason is not looking bright for him.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Jontay Porter (Team Option $1,517,981)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: N/A]
Jontay Porter has not gotten any playing time at the NBA level, so it makes it difficult
to evaluate what type of production and abilities he can add to the Grizzlies rotation.
However, at Mizzou, he showcased his abilities of stretching the floor shooting a
36.4% 3FG and 75% FT in his lone season there. He was an above average rim
protector averaging 1.67 BPG in 24.5 minutes per game. Whether or not he can carve
out a role in the NBA will be decided by his ability to move laterally and defend in
space. Expect Memphis to bring Porter back to continue their young player
development.
2. De’Anthony Melton (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 93.1%]
De’Anthony Melton is a solid NBA rotational piece, with a strong defensive IQ.
Melton posted a respectable 105.0 defensive rating this past season. Melton is also a
quality ball distributor at the young age of 22. He had nearly a 2.0:1.0 assist to
turnover ratio and three assists per game in less than 20 minutes of action. He is an
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aggressive passer that seeks out passes to shooters and cutters. Melton must show
improvement in the shooting respects with a 28.6% 3FG last season. He needs to
improve specifically off the dribble as he shot 17.6% from three on pull up attempts,
while shooting 38.3% on catch and shoot attempts. Defensively, he is immaculate in
passing lanes as he averaged 4.4 deflections per 75 possessions, in the 98th percentile
amongst guards. With the young guard showing the ability to play high quality
minutes in a limited role while also locking in on the defensive end, the Grizzlies
would be wise to match an offer and retain the young guard.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Derrick Jones Jr. 6’6 210lbs, 23 years old, SF, Current Salary: $1,645,357
Projected Annual Salary: $8,000,000-$12,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 18.7%
Derrick Jones Jr. is a freak athlete, who provides a team with incredible versatility. He is quick
enough to guard two guards & he is tall and lengthy enough to give forwards fits. Offensively, he
is developing his three-point shooting. He is currently a rather poor shooter as he was left open
frequently (35.7% open), and his shooting gravity was in the 22nd percentile among wings. His
role is not as an offensive creator at all as he only averages 0.5 isolation possessions per 75
possessions and was a rather poor passer. He is already a good cutter and offensive rebounder.
He shot 72% on cuts (67th percentile). Defensively, he is at his best when guarding off the ball.
He uses his seven-foot-long wingspan to read passing lanes extremely well and getting over to
the rim in rotations as a shot blocker. He averaged 2.3 steals and blocks per 36 minutes. He is
also is active on closeouts, contesting 5.8 threes per 75 possessions (93rd percentile among
wings). Jones has potential to add value in a multitude of ways as the wing spot.

Option #2:
Austin Rivers 6’3 200lbs, 28 years old, SG, Player Option (Houston) $2.6 Mil.
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000- $6,000,000
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Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 58.6%


Rivers will most likely decline his $2.4 million-dollar player option with Houston. This past
season Rivers had one of his best shooting seasons from both the 3-point line and the charity
stripe. He shot 35.6% from three and 70% from the charity stripe (yes not very impressive for a
guard, but it’s an area he’s struggled). Rivers strengths are his shot creating abilities, 30% of his
threes were unassisted & 92% of his makes at the rim were unassisted. A few teams may offer
Rivers multi-year deals worth upwards of $5 million per year. Memphis will have a hard time
landing him, but they could definitely use another shot creator.

Option #3:
Torrey Craig 6’7 220lbs, 29 years old, SF, Current Salary: $2,000,000
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000- $6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 0.3%
Torrey Craig is slashing defensive minded wing. He is exceptional at finishing around the rim at
73.9%, even though it was on low volume (3.3 attempts per 75 possessions). He has rather poor
shot selection from three, with only 15% of his threes being considered open even though he
does not provide much gravity as a wing. Even with that, he was average as far as efficiency
goes with a TS% of 56% and 1.04 PPP in spot up situations. He is a poor play maker, not adding
much value there. He is in the top tier of wings when it comes to crashing the offensive glass. He
averaged 2 offensive rebounds per 75 possessions and did a great job of chasing loose balls and
long rebounds. On the defensive end of the floor, his role is to guard top tier creators and be a
pest when chasing off the ball. He can add value as a lengthy defender when guarding the one
and two. He is a slightly below average player on offense and is impactful on the defensive end.

Option#4
E’Twuan Moore 6’3 190lbs 31 years old, PG/SG, Current Salary: $8,664,928
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 41.6%
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E’Twaun Moore is an outlier in the sense that he is a plus three-point shooter, while remaining
an average to below average free throw shooter. His main offensive role is to shoot threes off the
catch, and he does a great job at that, shooting over 37% from three each of the past three
seasons. A lot of his shots come off screening actions, and he knows how to navigate them well.
He also does a surprisingly good job in isolations, as he does a good job creating space. He is
also a plus at creating, opening the floor up for him some. Defensively, he does not add much
value. He was consistently attacked in pick and roll switches. Even when guarding his own man
on the perimeter, he did not add much value. He typically guards the worse guard or wing on the
court. He does a decent job in off-ball situations, reading passing lanes well and playing solid
help. Moore can be a secondary creator off the bench in spot minutes, but mainly residing in an
off-ball shooting role.

Trade Scenarios
1. Milwaukee Bucks
Bucks Receiving: Kyle Anderson
Grizzlies Receiving: D.J. Wilson, Robin Lopez, 2020 1st Round
Pick (24th overall)
The Memphis Grizzlies receive a young big in DJ Wilson, and a first-round pick for the young,
quirky wing, Kyle Anderson. Wilson has not been given any significant role during his time in
Milwaukee but has shown flashes of potential in his limited game action. In the 2018-19 season,
Wilson showed the ability to stretch the floor, converting on 36.2% of his threes on just over 2.5
attempts per game, and played reliable defense. For Milwaukee, this deal is all about maximizing
their chances to retain the back to back MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Anderson is admittingly
not a homerun addition, but he has proven to be a solid all-around player in both Memphis and
San Antonio. Anderson does his work entirely inside the arc on offense, but with good reason,
shooting better than 54.0% on two point attempts the past three seasons. He has been a good
secondary ball handler on bench units in his previous two stops. He would bring that playmaking
to a Milwaukee bench unit that needs facilitators. On defense, Anderson’s larger frame has put
him on fours consistently, logging just over 70.0% of time at the four last season. Anderson
posted a +1.8 defensive RAPTOR rating last season.
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2. Toronto Raptors
Raptors Receiving: Jonas Valanciunas, 2020 2nd Round Pick (40th
overall)
Grizzlies Receiving: Norman Powell
This trade is straight forward. Toronto needs a big man to stay competitive with Marc Gasol &
Serge Ibaka’s departure. Memphis needs secondary scoring unless Grayson Allen or De’Anthony
Melton is there guy. Norman Powell is coming off the best year of his career nearly doubling his
scoring output averaging 16 points per game and shooting 40% from three. However, Toronto
may be willing to move him to create more playing time for Terrance Davis and plug their hole
at center. Also, they get a pick in the second round which history tells us they have great success
with. This trade is a win-win. This trade will have to take place after Toronto gets Gasol’s and
Ibaka’s cap holds off the books.

3. Brooklyn Nets
Nets Receiving: Brandon Clarke, Justice Winslow
Grizzlies Receiving: Caris Lavert
In this deal, the Memphis Grizzlies gains a reliable wing in Caris LeVert. At just 26 years old, he
has progressed each year since being drafted in the 2016 NBA draft and last season, took his
biggest leap yet. In the 2019-20 season, LeVert posted averages of 18.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, and
4.4 assists on shooting splits of 42.5/36.4/71.1. These numbers should be taken with some
caution though, as LeVert was thrusted into a much larger role than anticipated due to the
injuries of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. For Memphis, LeVert provides a reliable third scoring
option behind rookie of the year Ja Morant, and promising big man Jaren Jackson Jr. LeVert is
also a capable defender and has averaged over a steal a game since his rookie season. For
Brooklyn, this deal gives them a capable yet, injury prone wing in Justice Winslow, and a
promising young big in Brandon Clarke. These two players would further bolster an already
potent Brooklyn bench as the Nets gear up for the 2020-2021 campaign under newly hired head
coach Steve Nash.
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MIAMI HEAT
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
XLVII. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 20
XLVIII. Team Needs
a. Rebounding /Ability to defend big man
i. Miami had their rebounding woes throughout the regular
season, and in the playoffs, they ranked 12th in RPG among the
16 playoff teams. As the great Pat Riley once said, “No
rebounds, no rings.”
b. Point Guard
i. With Dragic turning 34, injuries starting to amount, Nunn not
being a true point, consistency problems, Miami needs to fill
the void at point.
XLIX. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Heat Free Agency
XV. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XVI. Free Agent Targets
XVII. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 20
Choice #1
Josh Green 19 yrs old, G, Arizona
6’6 209lbs, 6’10 ¼ ” Wingspan
2019-20 (30 games): 12.0 PPG; 4.6 RPG; 2.6 APG; 1.5
STL; 1.6 TO; 42.4% FG; 36.1% 3FG

Josh Green is a slashing wing. He can guard up and


down the lineup to an extent. On offense, he is a
triple threat wing that can attack the rim off two to
three dribbles. There is potential with his jumper.
Defensively, he is threat in passing lanes and
works well with pack line values.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Good frame at 19 years old • Needs to speed up shooting form, work on
• Solid first step when attacking downhill shooting off movement
• Quick decision maker off drives • Good vertical leaper, but
• Decent touch on runner • Very basic handle, passing looks
• Great hips and footwork on defense • Stiff on offense, movement is stagnant
• He is able to guard the 1-3 • Injury history (two shoulder surgeries)
• Makes good rotations in pack line
NBA Comparison: Miles Bridges, Ben McLemore
 Josh Green can step in as a defensive wing. He will be given some tough assignments
in spot minutes due to his ability to guard in space. He may initially struggle to shoot
the NBA three due to his long release and footwork off the move. He needs to attack
downhill off POA actions and get to his floater. He can finish above the rim, but it
takes him too long to rise up. He may need some time to adjust to the NBA game
before becoming a legitimate piece.
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Choice #2
Tyrese Maxey 19 yrs old, G,
Kentucky
6’3 198lbs; 6’6 Wingspan
2019-20: 14.0 PPG; 4.3 RPG; 3.2 APG; 0.9
STL; 2.2 TO; 42.7% FG; 29.2% 3FG

Tyrese Maxey is another John Calipari


one and done prospect. The #13 high
school prospect finds himself
hovering right outside the lottery after
an electric season with the Kentucky
Wildcats. With flashes of scoring
ability at all three levels, can his stature and game progress at the next level.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Confident spot up shooter • Needs to stay on his toes and move
• Defensively follows defender off the laterally with ball handler
ball, stays on hip and gets skinny • Streaky shooter; Shot selection
around off ball screens • Below average ball handler, very
• Able to move feet with ball handler and simple moves, no variety
uses length to help recover on step • Wild shots; seems to lose control of
backs body and becomes sloppy
• Uses change of direction/jab to try and • Floaters lead to many shots getting
create space blocked
• Aggressive slasher, versatile finishes
• Shoots floater at elite level
NBA Comparison: Bradley Beal, Norman Powell, Jeremy Lamb
 Tyrese Maxey has the ability to score off spot up shots, dribble pullups, and inside
with crafty layups. His size makes him it difficult to have combo guard capabilities
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along with his inability to be a playmaker, but his defensive skillset and focus can
help him stay on the floor.

Choice #3
Isaiah Stewart 19 yrs old, C,
Washington
6’9 250lbs; 7’4” Wingspan
2019-20 (32 games): 17.0 PPG; 8.8 RPG; 0.8
APG; 2.1 BLK; 2.2 TO; 57% FG; 25% 3FG
Isaiah Stewart is a prototypical small
ball five with a high motor. He is
coming into the league with elite length
and strength. He excels on the offensive
glass as an energizer bunny. Potential to
improve comes with a consistent jump
shot.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Top player in this draft in regard to • Guarding the PNR will be a problem for
off court value and team interviews him
• High motor rim runner • Jump shot is not there
• Nice touch in mid post • Blackhole on offense (0.4:1.0 AST:TO)
• Uses NBA ready frame to draw fouls • Only 15% of his offensive possessions
at a high rate were PNR
• 19 years old • Limited ceiling, rim running centers are
• Can attack mismatches in the post by replaceable
playing bully ball • Poor footwork, lacks quick vertical and
poor first step when attacking downhill
NBA Comparison: Antonio Davis, Montrezl Harrel
 Isaiah Stewart is a high motor five man. He is a great runner in straight line situations,
namely transition possessions. He has exceeded all teams’ expectations as far as draft
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interviews go. His ceiling will be determined by how he improves as a shooter. There
are also questions regarding his ability to guard perimeter players in space.

Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Jordan Bowden, 23 years, old, 6’5, Tennessee
2. Austin Wiley, 21 years old, 6’11, Auburn
3. Emmitt Williams, 22 years old, 6’6, LSU

Heat Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Goran Dragić $19,217,900
2. Solomon Hill $12,758,781
3. Meyers Leonard $11,286,515
4. Jae Crowder $7,815,533
5. Derrick Jones Jr. $1,645,357
6. Udonis Haslem $1,620,564
II. Player Option
1. Kelly Olynyk $13,198,243
III. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Kendrick Nunn $1,663,861
2. Duncan Robinson $1,663,861
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): $15,143,942
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $42,403,278

Who stays, Who goes


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▪ Players to part ways with:


1. Solomon Hill (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 37.8%]
Solomon Hill was served as a cap filler in the trade that sent Jae Crowder and Andre
Iguodala to Miami, however he found his way on to the court for some very brief run
in the postseason. Solomon Hill has a place in this league with his size, versatility and
average 3-point shooting (36.8 % this year), but Miami may not be that place. If the
Heat respect Hill’s work ethic and overall culture fit, he could come back to Miami for
the minimum. He provides good value at that price point due to his intensity as a
perimeter defender. However, some team may be more aggressive with their pursuit of
Hill and offer him a larger role, which could be beneficial for Miami as there are
comparable options, even at the minimum.
2. Meyers Leonard (Projected $8,000,000-$10,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 7.2%]
Meyers Leonard provided Miami with great value this past season, starting at center
in nearly 50 games before his injury. Leonard is a top tier stretch big that shot 41.4 %
from three this past season. His shooting gravity was in the 88th percentile amongst
bigs. He does not provide much on offense outside of his ability to space the floor.
However, for the Heat’s sake they already have Kelly Olynyk who provides similar
stretch ability and will be on the books for about $12.6 million once he accepts his
player option. Defensively, they are both negatives so that side of the ball is a net
negative regardless. If Leonard is willing to sign a minimum after just cashing in, he
may be back in Miami. Anything upwards of that should result with Miami letting him
walk.
3. Jae Crowder (Projected $12,000,000-$15,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 14.9%]
Jae Crowder is a big reason the Miami Heat made it to the NBA finals. Crowder did a
good job of drawing attention from defenders even though he did not provide a ton of
value as a spot up shooter (0.82 PPP in spot up situations, 16th percentile amongst
wings). Teams consistently had a man in his space, as 11.4% of his threes were
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considered open, in the 11th percentile amongst wings. He is a versatile offensive
forward. Defensively, he does not give up anything without a fight. He uses his frame
well to break up screening actions and get in his man’s space. He can guard the two
through four with consistency and can guard the one and five in spot possessions. The
Heat may not want to compete financially over Crowder’s services. Teams may view
him in the Jeff Green archetype of a super small five. In that same breath, Jae Crowder
may take a one-year contract with the Heat to run it back with his college teammate
Jimmy Butler. The Miami Heat should part ways with is because they do not want to
eat into their 2021 cap space. A point of information, his three-point shooting came
back to earth towards the end of the postseason (down 11% from 40% [30 makes] in
first two rounds to 29% [25 makes] in the eastern conference and NBA finals).
4. Derrick Jones Jr (Projected $8,000,000-$12,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 18.7%]
Derrick Jones Jr is a young player with potential to improve as a viable path. He
showed the ability to finish around the rim on cuts and fast breaks (1.5 PPP in
transition, 100th percentile amongst wings). He shot 73.7% at the rim while also
putting down 84 dunks. He does a good job of getting vertical quickly as he does not
take long to load. On defense, he uses his 7’0 wingspan well to attack passing lanes
and operate as a rim deterrent when he makes rotations. He only contests 16% of the
rim attempts when he is on the floor but blocks 30% of his contests due to his elite
athleticism. Being 23 years old combined with his athletic ability, versatility, and raw
skill should earn him multi-year contract offers upwards of $8 million annually. Miami
has repeated time and time again they do not want to lock up any multi-year contracts
that affect their 2021 cap, as they plan to pursue ‘whales’ to the likes of Giannis
Antetokounmpo in the 2021 free agency period. With that said, the Miami Heat should
not match the inflated, multi-year offers he will receive.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Goran Dragić (Projected $10,000,000-$15,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 57.9%]
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Miami would resign Dragic back without hesitation if they got the same production as
last year. However, Dragic will field offers from other teams in the $10-$15 million-
dollar range based on his role as the lead guard off the bench and eventual starting
point guard for Miami’s trip to the Finals. Offensively, Dragic does a good job of
creating his own shot at will. He had an effective field goal percentage 61.8% in
isolation, in the 85th percentile amongst guards. He is an exceptional playmaker that
does a good job of starting the half-court offense for Miami. Even though he operates
strictly with his left hand, he creates well out of the pick and roll. Unfortunately,
Dragic’s play will most likely decline because of injuries and age (34 years old).
Dragic would have to be willing to take a pay cut to stay with Miami. Based on
Dragic’s comments about this upcoming free agency not being about money and more
about his family and the fit, Dragic and Miami should ink a deal for considerably less
than the competition. A two-year deal at around $8 million annually with an option
would appease both sides.
2. Udonis Haslem (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 0%]
Udonis Haslem has decided to return for his 18th NBA season. The Miami Heat will
gladly welcome him back. Haslem will see very sparce minutes, but will act more in a
player development, glue-guy role.
3. Kelly Olynyk (Player Option $13,198,243)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 19.7%]
Kelly Olynyk is a solid rotation player for the Miami Heat. Miami likes his ability to
stretch the floor and get the offense moving with DHO’s. Olynyk’s usage has
decreased over his three-year stint with Miami, however this season he was the most
efficient from three, shooting at a 40.6% clip. His shooting gravity is in the 86th
percentile amongst bigs. He is a decent passer as well as he averaged 8.3 assisted
points per 75 possessions, in the 82nd percentile amongst bigs. If Miami can get that
same productivity next season, they will be pleased with him accepting his player
option.
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Free Agent Targets

Option #1:
Serge Ibaka 7’0 235lbs 31 years old, PF/C, Current Salary: $23,271,605
Projected Annual Salary: $15,000,000- $20,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 3.3%
Serge Ibaka is a veteran big man who helps space the floor. Ibaka has seen a bit of his defensive
game diminish but has in turn improved tremendously on the offensive side of the ball.
Defensively he did a good job of contesting shots but has lost the ability to block shots at a high
rate (contested 39% of rim attempts, blocked 13% of contests). Both with this season and last
season’s NBA Finals run with the Raptors, Ibaka has had a huge impact on the Raptor’s offense.
Ibaka is averaging a career high in points this season (15.4 points) and the second most in his
career for rebounding (8.2). With no more Kawhi Leonard, Ibaka has been able to do more on
the offensive side and still shoot a high percentage from the field (51% FG, 38.5% 3FG). He was
extremely impactful as a floor spacer as he got quality shots from three while acting as a
deterrent for help defenders (shooting gravity in the 78th percentile amongst bigs). Ibaka is still
young enough to be looking to cash in on a pay day with the possibility of returning to Toronto
depending on what they decide to do with both him and Fred Van Fleet.

Option #2:
Aron Baynes 6’10 260lbs, 33 years old, C/PF, Current Salary: $5,453,280
Projected Annual Salary: $8,000,000-$12,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 17.5%
Aaron Baynes is a bruiser off the bench. In Phoenix, he showed potential as a floor spacer. He
went on an 11-game stretch shooting 47% from deep. He was inconsistent though, also going
through a 28-game stretch where he delt with injury and shot 25% from deep. His value depends
on which stretches in his season are more valuable to potential suiters. He has surprising value in
isolations. While only averaging 1.7 isolations per 75 possessions, he had an eFG% of 61.1%
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(91st percentile amongst bigs). He is a below average finisher around the rim, but still provide
some value in the pick and roll as a passer out of the short roll and a threat to pop. His ability to
pop forces teams out of drop coverage. On defense, his stats do not pop in any facet, but he is an
enforcer that plays hard every possession. Off the court, he is beloved in locker rooms and has a
cult following amongst fans.

Option #3:
Jevon Carter: 6’1 200lbs 25 years old, PG, Current Salary $1,416,852
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 20.3%
Jevon Carter is an end of rotation signing to add value in specific matchups. Carter drew some
notoriety as a backup point guard during his eight-game run with the Suns in the bubble which
included a 20-point game against the Miami Heat. On the offensive end of the floor, he is only a
plus as a three-point shooter off the catch. He made threes at a good clip, but he did not face
much defensive focus. That 42% clip could face decline if he gets more attention from defenses
as well as when volume increases. Outside of that, Carter is a negative everywhere else on the
offensive side of the ball. Defensively, Carter is a top tier perimeter defender. He uses his body
extremely well and makes it tough for ball handlers. He is a tough defender both as a point of
attack defender and as a team defender.

Option #4:
Mason Plumlee 6’11 254lbs 30 years old, C, Current Salary: $14,041,096
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000- $10,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 32.6%
Plumlee at 6’11, is an energy rebounder with sneaky good passing ability. Sacramento is in need
of someone who can come in and to provide rebounding and interior defense. Plumlee could be
the perfect 5 to complement the Kings undersized ‘bigs’ & stretch players on their roster.
Plumlee could make a big jump in Sacramento where he would receive more opportunity then
his previous stops. Plumlee’s per 36 stats are impressive: 15 PPG, 10 RPG, 5 APG, 1 BLK & 1
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STL. At 30 years old, he probably will not be their number one target this offseason, but Plumlee
is a reliable backup plan if other options fall through.

Trade Scenarios
1. San Antonio Spurs
Spurs Receiving: Duncan Robinson
Heat Receiving: LaMarcus Aldridge, Luka Samanic
LaMarcus Aldridge is 35 years old with one year left on his contract. But for a Miami team that
fell two wins short of an NBA championship, Aldridge could be the one piece that pushes them
over the top. Regardless, Miami is getting good value for one of the league's best shooters in
Duncan Robinson with the acquisition of Aldridge and Luka Samanic. Samanic spent most of his
rookie season with the Austin Spurs and showed some terrific upside. More importantly he has
three years left on his deal, giving Miami some long-term collateral for Robinson and time for
Miami to develop him. Robinson is looking at a big pay day in the 2021 offseason, a payday that
Miami may not be able to afford. That may contribute to their willingness to move him. San
Antonio is acquiring one of the league's best shooters. He was in the 100th percentile for
shooting gravity. He shot 45.7% on catch and shoot threes, in the 98th percentile. This is
arguably the best deal they could get for Aldridge.

2. Washington Wizards
Wizards Receiving: Tyler Herro, Kelly Olynyk, 2020 1st Round
Pick (20th overall), 2026 1st Round Pick
Heat Receiving: Bradley Beal
This trade means that the Miami Heat are putting all their chips on the table. The addition of
Bradley Beal would make their motion offense even more dynamic than it already is. Beal would
do well running off DHOs with Bam Adebayo as well as operate as a pick and roll partner. For
Washington, this would be part of a larger move toward rebuilding as they would most likely
look to offload John Wall as well. Tyler Herro is a great asset for a rebuilding roster. Kelly
Olynyk is included to make the money work. He is on an expiring contract once he picks up his
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player option. Washington also adds a few draft picks to their war chest. With the 20th pick, they
could look to move up further into the lottery if they desire. The 2026 pick is valuable as one
would assume that both Beal and Jimmy Butler are out of their prime by then.

3. New Orleans Pelicans


Pelicans Receiving: Duncan Robinson, Andre Iguodala, Kelly
Olynyk, 2020 1st Round Pick (20th overall), 2024 1st Round Pick
Heat Receiving: Jrue Holiday, J.J. Redick
For the Miami Heat, this trade is a win now move revolving around Jrue Holiday. Holiday is a
solid primary facilitator that can also operate off the ball when Jimmy Butler or Goran Dragic are
in control of the offense. They also remain cap flexible for the 2021 offseason. JJ Redick is
currently a downgrade from Duncan Robinson, as Robinson was quite possibly the best off-ball
shooter in the NBA this season. Redick is still a plus on the offensive end of the floor as he can
space the floor or play off Bam Adebayo in DHO actions. Andre Iguodala is a key loss from a
defensive and locker room perspective. Kelly Olynyk was a decent backup center, but there is
certainly room for improvement on the free agency or trade market. For the New Orleans
Pelicans, the real asset for them is Robinson as well as the two additional draft picks.
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MILWAUKEE BUCKS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
L. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 24
LI. Team Needs
a. Shot Creator
i. The Bucks need another guy on offense that can get his own
shot. In the bubble’s playoffs Milwaukee found themselves
settling for tough 3’s whenever Giannis Antetokounmpo or
Khris Middleton could not produce a good look themselves.
Eric Bledsoe unfortunately seems to be the odd man out.
b. Shooting
i. Expanding on the shot creator need, the Bucks need more
shooting in general for this team to take the next step in the
2020-21 season. In the playoffs, the Bucks were eleventh in
three-point shooting percentage and when you construct a team
of ‘shooters’ in a 5-out scheme, you simply need better
production from beyond the arc.
LII. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Bucks Free Agency
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XVII. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XVIII. Free Agent Targets
XIX. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 24
Choice #1
Grant Riller 23 yrs old, G, College of
Charleston
6’3 190lbs
2019-20 (31 games): 21.9 PPG; 5.1 RPG; 3.9 APG; 1.6
STL; 3.1 TO; 49.9% FG; 36.2% 3FG

Grant Riller is one of the top scorers in this draft


class. He is a three-level scorer who can get
buckets at will. There are few weaknesses with his
offensive game. Questions come into play with his
age and his defensive capabilities.
Strengths Weaknesses
• One of the best scorers in this class • 24 years old, not much room for
• Elite finisher around the rim (70.6% FG%) improvement
• Played up to his competition • Cannot always hit the big when looking to
• Great balance of volume and efficiency on pass in PNR
the offensive end • Low volume shooting off the ball
• Draws fouls at a high rate • Negative on the defensive end of the floor
• Extremely quick laterally • Will struggle to guard PNR
• May struggle to fit into a low usage role
NBA Comparison: Lou Williams, Seth Curry, Jeremy Lamb
 Grant Riller can fit in as the lead guard off the bench immediately. He is an elite
scorer that must be a defensive focal point. His footwork is elite and allows him to get
off whatever shot he wants. He may struggle to accept a low usage role if he goes to a
playoff contender. He can be a good defender in specific possessions but is rather
inconsistent with his defensive motor and effort.
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Choice #2
Desmond Bane 22 yrs old, G/F, TCU
6’6 215lbs; 6’9 ½ Wingspan
2019-20: 16.6 PPG; 6.3 RPG; 3.9 APG; 1.5 STL; 2.3 TO;
45.2% FG; 44.2% 3FG

Desmond Bane is a 3&D two guard with some


potential as a spot playmaker. He is an extremely
intelligent player off the ball that knows how to use
screens to create advantage situations. On defense,
he rotates well to blow up screening actions. His
frame is also a plus on this end of the floor.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Top tier shooter in this draft class • Negative wingspan
• Comfortable shooting off dribble or • Not much room to grow considering
catch age
• Underrated passer for a wing • Below average first step
• Solid, creative layup package around • Settles for long twos when attacking
the rim off the dribble
• Charge taker on defense • Lackluster ball handling
• Extremely intelligent when navigating • Lacks lateral athleticism, mainly
screens on off agility and speed
NBA Comparison: Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart
 Desmond Bane fits in immediately as a floor spacer. His offensive potential is based
upon his ability to create space with screening actions and create for others in limited
situations. On defense, his negative wingspan and lack of foot speed will hurt him,
but his strength and IQ should make up for it in some capacity. He may have some
potential to guard some undersized bigs due to his frame.
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Choice #3
Isaiah Joe Soph. 21 yrs old G, Arkansas
6’5 180lbs; 6’10” Wingspan
2019-20: 16.9 PPG; 4.1 RPG; 1.7 APG; 1.4 STL; 1.7
TO; 36.7% FG; 34.2% 3FG

Isaiah Joe is one of the best shooters in this


draft class. He operates well both on and off
the ball. He can facilitate as a secondary
creator. On defense, he plays good on the help
side. He looks to make plays with his length.
He struggles more on the ball due to lack of
quickness and strength on his frame.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Best shooter in draft class • Needs to add weight
• Runs off the ball very well • Does not move hips well on defense,
• Creates space with side steps, stepbacks gets beat downhill in POA
• Underrated as a passer, can hit pocket • Struggles to attack downhill as an on-
pass in PNR ball creator
• Soft touch around the rim • Does not draw contact on offense
• Great length for a guard • Turnover prone at times
• Defensive playmaker at times
NBA Comparison: Landry Shamet, Devonte’ Graham
 Isaiah Joe will step into a rotation as an elite shooter on day one. His percentages
might now show it, but he was one of the best shooters in college basketball. In his
case volume is more valuable than efficiency as he took more than 10 threes per
game. He can create his own shot extremely easily out of the triple threat. On defense,
his length is extremely valuable, but his slow hips and footwork could hold him back.
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Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Sam Merrill, 24 years old, 6’5, Utah State
2. Yoeli Childs, 22 years old, 6’8, BYU
3. Anthony Lamb, 22 years old, 6’6, Vermont

Bucks Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Pat Connaughton $2,239,965
2. Kyle Korver $1,620,564
3. Marvin Williams $1,620,564
II. Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
1. Sterling Brown $2,023,150
III. Player Option
1. Robin Lopez $5,005,350
2. Wesley Matthews $2,692,991
IV. Dead Cap Space
1. Jon Leuer $3,169,348
2. Larry Sanders $1,865,546
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($15,793,508)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): ($2,858,189)

Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Marvin Williams (Retired)
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Marvin Williams has already announced his plans to retire. The 34-year-old stretch 4
finishes his career with averages of 10.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 1.3 AST. He spent 15
years in the NBA.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Pat Connaughton (Projected $3,000,000-$6,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 23%]
The Milwaukee Bucks will target Pat Connaughton to resign either to keep him in the
rotation or to use him as a trade piece. The 6’5 wing has proven over the course of his
career in Milwaukee that he isn’t scared of the big shot and will do the little things to
help give his team the best chance to win. Connaughton is a below average shooter
from range but does a good job of attacking the rim off the ball as a cutter.
Defensively he is solid. He is a much better point of attack defender than off-ball
defender in passing lanes. He struggled to get deflections as he averages 1.2
deflections per 75 possessions, in the 13th percentile amongst wings. He spent 58.9%
of his defensive possessions guarding point guards and shooting guards. He posted a
+0.5 defensive Raptor rating in 2020. Connaughton is a solid role player on a
Milwaukee Bucks team that will be operating as a capped organization come free
agency.
2. Kyle Korver (Projected League Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 62.8%]
At 39 years old, Kyle Korver can still contribute to a contender. During the 2019-20
season, Korver still managed to shoot over 40% from beyond the arc on 4.1 attempts
per game. He still strikes fear in defenses when he comes off pin downs and DHO
actions. For his projected minimum contract, he adds great value. In total, shooting
42.3% on catch and shoot threes and 44.2% on corner threes, Korver is still one of the
best shooters in the league. He also a high character addition to a locker room that
brings great leadership qualities and mentorship with him. He will be able to act as a
security blanket and insurance policy for the Milwaukee Bucks next year in the event
one of their rotation pieces go down for any extended period of time.
3. Sterling Brown (Projected League Minimum)
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[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 63.2%]


Sterling Brown is a young wing that the Milwaukee Bucks should continue to look to
develop going forward. Projected to be given a minimum contract in free agency,
Brown will most likely end up signing the $2 million qualifying offer to return for the
2021 season. With a down free agency market this year, he may look to capitalize on
better play in the following offseason. Brown had a down year shooting the three
(32.4% compared to 36.1% in 2019) but continued to be a positive on the defensive
side for the league’s best defensive unit (during the regular season). He is a good
defensive rebounder for a guard that can push the ball when necessary. He averaged
7.1 defensive boards per 75 possessions, in the 99th percentile amongst guards. Brown
posted a +1.1 defensive RAPTOR rating during the 2019-20 season, good for 7th best
on the team. Brown should continue to be a rotation player for the Bucks going
forward and hopes to return to his career averages from the three-point line.
4. Robin Lopez (Player Option $5,005,350)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 8.8%]
The Bucks backup center, Robin Lopez is another player the Bucks should keep going
forward. Lopez has a player option this fall and is projected to opt-in but if he did
choose to pursue the free agent market, Milwaukee should look to retain him. In a
bench role last year, Lopez followed in Brook Lopez’s footsteps in regard to turning
into a floor spacer, attempting a career high 1.6 threes per game, while shooting a
respectable 33.3% (.99 Points Per Possession). This new-found ability along with his
rim protection proved invaluable to a team that already had two of the best rim
deterrents in the entire league (Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez). He
provides a ton of effort on that end of the floor, as he contested 52.4% of rim attempts,
in the 100th percentile amongst bigs. Opponents shot 21.4% worse against him at the
rim than expected. That along with his positive locker room presence is great for a
contending team.
5. Wesley Matthews (Player Option $2,692,991)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 89%]
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Wesley Matthews has become an underrated player during his time in Milwaukee. The
34-year-old 3&D wing shot over 36% from three but, for only the second time in his
career, shot below 40% from the field. Offense is not where Wesley Matthews leaves
his mark. On defense, Matthews returned to form, posting a +3.1 defensive RAPTOR
rating in just under 1,900 minutes, good for 22nd best league wide. Matthews works
well within the 5-out scheme of Milwaukee, and it allows him to catch his breath for
the defensive side of the court, where Coach Mike Budenholzer often tasked him with
the toughest assignment.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Maurice Harkless 6’7 220lbs 27 years old, SF, Current Salary: $11,011,234
Projected Annual Salary: Mid-Level Exception
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 40.9%
Maurice Harkless is a defensive minded wing. On offense, he was a negative on the perimeter.
He was consistently left open and ruined court spacing in LA and in NY. He is extremely
inconsistent as a shooter with two seasons shooting over 38% from three and four seasons
shooting under 30% from three. He has consistently struggled to shoot with volume, as he has
never even attempted 200 shots from deep. He is a good slasher, shooting 67.7% around the rim
on 47% of his attempts, but that alone does not outweigh his lack of value on the perimeter. He is
a legitimate defensive wing that plays with intensity. Some of that intensity is shown by his
ability to recover loose balls. He recovered 86% of loose ball opportunities (91st percentile
among wings). Harkless is a consistent defensive wing with a high variance offensive game. This
is more of a boom or bust signing that could rely on his perimeter shooting.

Option #2:
Glenn Robinson III 6’6 220lbs 26 years old, G, Current Salary: $1,882,867
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000-$8,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 40.9%
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Glenn Robinson III has found his role in the NBA as an off the bench spark plug. The 26-year-
old posted career highs in all major offensive categories last year. Prior to being dealt to
Philadelphia, Robinson III was shooting with splits of 48.1/40.0/85.1 from the field in Golden
State. This pace proved to be unsustainable as he struggled in his smaller role in Philadelphia.
Robinson III projects to be paid around the mid-level exception for a team this off-season and
figures to be given the opportunity to give offense to a contender’s bench unit.

Option #3:
Mario Hezonja 6’8 220lbs 25 years old, SF/PF, Current Salary: $1,737,145
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 4.5%
Former fifth overall pick Mario Hezonja has carved himself out a role in the NBA as an end of
the rotation wing that is a net positive on the defensive end of the court. Hezonja played in
Portland this past season and logged more minutes at the power forward spot than he had in any
previous season (67%). This change helped Hezonja as the knock on him offensively has been
his inability to get downhill by wings and finish at the rim (2.3 shots at the rim per 75
possessions, 31st percentile). He is a blackhole on offense, averaging 9.5 potential assists per 100
passes, in the 26th percentile. Hezonja posted a DBPM of 0.2. He is an active defender, averaging
4.5 three-point contests per 75 possessions, in the 82nd percentile. He guarded power forwards on
34.4% of his defensive possessions. Given his size at 6’8 220, should continue to be a
contributor on that end of the court as the power forward position continues to shrink from the
behemoths of the 90’s and 2000’s.

Option #4:
Jeff Green 6’8 235lbs 34 years old, C/PF/SF, Current Salary: $439,475
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 69.6%
Jeff Green is a solid veteran presence who provides excellent value for a minimum contract. He
really showed what he can contribute once he got traded to Houston and started receiving
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minutes at the five spot. He has shown some streaky shooting in the past, but really took control
in their bubble playoff run. He shot 42.6% from three on 54 attempts. Green has consistently
shown an ability to step up in the playoffs throughout his career (51.9% conversion on corner
threes in the playoffs vs 38.5% conversion rate during the regular season, an increase of
+13.4%). Green is also good at moving and cutting off the ball, being in the 90th percentile in
Bball Index’s stats regarding off-ball cuts. On the defensive side of the ball, Green was a force in
the playoffs. When guarding isolations, he gave up 0.73 PPP on a FG% of 36% according to
Stats.NBA. He showed versatility during the regular season as well, guarding every position for
at least 13% of his defensive possessions. Green has carved out a new role with Houston as a
legitimate small ball five. This role could translate to a multitude of playoff contenders.

Option #5:
Wilson Chandler 6’8 235lbs 33 years old, SF/PF, Current Salary: $2,564,753
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 4.5%
Wilson Chandler, 33 has become a bit of a journeyman the past few years but he can still provide
value for an NBA team. The versatile wing has proven the ability to play real minutes at the 4
and in his last consistent action, shot 39.0% from three on over three attempts. But at 33, the
offensive end is not why you sign Wilson Chandler. The 14-year veteran brings a presence to the
locker room and can still be a plus on the defensive side of the court. During last season,
Chandler posted a +0.5 defensive RAPTOR rating for the Brooklyn nets. If Chandler can find a
way to get healthy, he can be an asset to a contending team’s rotation for the 2020-21 season.

Trade Scenarios
1. Dallas Mavericks and Indiana Pacers
Mavericks Receiving: Victor Oladipo, Doug McDermott, 2020 24th
overall pick
Pacers Receiving: Eric Bledsoe, Delon Wright, Dorian Finney-
Smith
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Bucks Receiving: Seth Curry, Maxi Kleber


In this deal, Milwaukee adds two pieces that fit much better with their roster than Eric Bledsoe.
Both, Seth Curry and Maxi Kleber played important roles in a Dallas offense that posted the
highest offensive rating in league history. Curry shot a stellar 45.2% on 5.0 threes per game and
would put immense pressure on opposing defenses in Milwaukee. Maxi Kleber would be the
backup to Brook Lopez in Milwaukee and might be a better fit next to Giannis Antetokounmpo
offensively. Indiana gets back three solid rotation players for Oladipo and should still compete in
the top half of the Eastern conference next season. Lastly, Dallas receives Victor Oladipo, Doug
McDermott and the 24th overall pick. This deal hinges on Oladipo’s ability to return to 2018
form for it to be a win for the Mavericks. Doug McDermott is an elite floor spacer and should
see even more open looks with Luka Doncic conducting offense in Dallas.

2. New Orleans Pelicans


Pelicans Receiving: Ersan Ilyasova, Robin Lopez, 2020 1st Round
Pick (24th overall via Indiana)
Bucks Receiving: J.J. Redick
J.J. Redick is still one of the best snipers in the association today, posting a 45.3% three-point
percentage this past season with New Orleans. His presence on the court always needs to be
accounted for and the Bucks could look to use him in two-man action such as DHOs with
Giannis Antetokounmpo, much like he was with Joel Embiid in Philadelphia. Redick’s ability to
space the floor and put pressure on opposing defenses is something the current Milwaukee Bucks
wings lack outside of Khris Middleton. For New Orleans I believe this deal makes sense because
Redick is not in the plans of David Griffin and the Pelicans front office. For them to acquire a
first-round pick for a 36-year-old specialist is rare. Ersan Ilyasova and Robin Lopez are included
as salary filler but could take Nicolo Melli’s minutes in the event of an injury to the Italian.
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MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVES
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
LIII. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Picks 1 and 17
b. Round 2: Pick 33
LIV. Team Needs
a. Complementary guard/wing
i. The Timberwolves need to select a wing or a guard to play
alongside D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns.
b. Backup center
i. Juan Hernangomez struggled on the defensive end of the floor
with the Timberwolves (block rate of 0.8%). He played 60% of
his minutes this year at the power forward, opening up minutes
for another Towns.
LV. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Timberwolves Free Agency
XVIII. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XIX. Free Agent Targets
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ROUND 1 PICK 1
Choice #1
Anthony Edwards 19 yrs old, SG, Georgia
6’3 225lbs; 6’10 Wingspan
2019-20 (32 games): 19.1 PPG; 5.2 RPG; 2.8 APG; 1.3
STL; 2.7 TO; 40.2% FG; 29.4% 3FG

Anthony Edwards has the highest ceiling in this


draft class. He is an elite level slasher who can
score at will. He had the green light at Georgia
to take any shot he wanted. He has an NBA
ready frame and showed potential on the
defensive end. Questions come into play
regarding his motor, shot selection.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Great slasher and finisher around the rim • Motor when the ball is not in his hands
(69.0% FG%) • Poor shot selection
• Creates space off the dribble • Average passer at best
• Unbridled confidence • Lackadaisical on defense
• Plus footwork • Not a playmaker on defense
• Can switch down on pick and roll • Shooting percentages were disappointing
NBA Comparison: Victor Oladipo, Andrew Wiggins
 Anthony Edwards dominated the ball at Georgia. He fits best as a second or third
option for a winning team. His ability to get off whatever shot he wants should
translate, but that may come with some shot selection issues. He will not be a first
option because he is not much of a creator for others. He struggled to get his
teammates involved at Georgia. Defensively, he has the physique to guard the one
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through three. He must be completely locked in for this to come to fruition. He
showed an extremely low motor at Georgia.

Choice #2
LaMelo Ball 19 yrs old, PG, Illawarra (NBL)
6’7 180lbs; 6’9” Wingspan
2019-20 (12 games): 17.0 PPG; 7.6 RPG; 6.8 APG; 1.6
STL; 2.5 TO; 37.5% FG; 25.0% 3FG

LaMelo Ball is the biggest name in this draft


class. He is one of the best playmakers in this
draft class as well. He was known for his
scoring numbers early in his career but has
struggled with efficiency through amateur play
and in the NBL. Defensively, his effort and
frame are legitimate concerns.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Elite passing vision • Poor shot selection, does not finish well
(7.9 AST per 36) inside, inefficient shooter
• Quick shot release, can get it off from • Danced too much on perimeter
virtually anywhere • Pushes his shot on jumper, hits straight
• Confidence to take any shot backboard frequently
• Good rebounder, helps push the ball in • Gives up on defensive possessions
transition • Worst PNR defender in NBL, cannot
• Solid footwork and quick hands on defense switch
• High center of gravity
NBA Comparison: Lonzo Ball+, Ricky Rubio
 LaMelo Ball has a higher ceiling than his brother due to his superior ability to create
in the half court. Scoring is a huge swing skill for him as it could be one of his biggest
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assets or one of his biggest weaknesses. He will be a negative on the defensive end of
the floor for at least the first few years of his NBA career because he was the worst
PNR defender in the NBL. His playmaking is one elite skill that he will be able to fall
back on no matter what.

Choice #3
Deni Avdija 19 yrs old, F, Maccabi Tel Aviv
(ISBL)
6’9 220lbs; 6’9 Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 12.9 PPG; 6.3 RPG; 2.7 APG; 0.9
STL; 2.2 TO; 52.6% FG; 35.3% 3FG

Deni Avdija is an elite level international talent.


He is an all-around offensive player that can be a
half court creator. He has a great feel for the game.
He is a strong defensive player that shows
consistent effort on that end. He flaunts a high
floor due to his mixed bag of skills.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Great feel for the game • Translation of three-point shooting,
• Cuts well off the ball, slips screens well footwork is main mechanical issue
• Nice touch around the rim • Low free throw percentage
• Great handle for a bigger wing • Average burst out of first step
• Able to get his shot off whenever • Right hand dominant
• Intelligent passer • Tries to do too much at times
• Physical defender, solid athlete • Top tier athletes can beat him downhill
• Shown added strength over past year
NBA Comparison: Hedo Turkoglu, Joe Ingles+
 Deni Avdija is a top prospect in this class due to his high floor and foundational skills
that could also lead to an extremely high ceiling if his shooting translates to the NBA.
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He can add immediate value at the three or four as a secondary creator. Defensively,
he is better than given credit for. He reads passing lanes well does a good job of
blocking shots at well. He is a playmaker on both ends of the floor.

ROUND 1 PICK 17
Choice #1
Saddiq Bey 21 yrs old, F, Villanova
6’8 215lbs; 6’11” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 16.1 PPG; 4.7 RPG; 2.4 APG; 0.8
STL; 1.5 TO; 47.7% FG; 45.1% 3FG

Saddiq Bey is an established offensive talent. He


has a versatile play style, combining a midpost
game, three-point shooting, and playmaking. He
struggles at times to fully utilize his frame,
especially in that midpost area. On the defensive
end, Bey is average at best. His athleticism as well
as his age may hold him back.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Capable of taking over spot ball handling • Below average athlete
responsibilities • Does not do a great job of creating space
• Plus shooter off the catch • Avoids contact
• Creative midpost scorer • Not a defensive playmaker
• Finishes well below the rim • Defensive IQ may be overstated
• Intelligent team defender • Bad hips, gets beat downhill in POA
NBA Comparison: DeMarre Carroll, Harrison Barnes
 Saddiq Bey has potential to be used as both the ballhandler and the screener in the
pick and pop. His versatility could also provide opportunities to utilize switches and
take advantage of mismatches. Bey could also see post mismatches, allowing him to
get off his faceup jump shot. There is real concern about his defensive potential due
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to his lack of vertical and lateral burst. He will not ever be a playmaker on this end of
the floor, but he could be capable at some point in his career.

Choice #2
Jalen Smith 20 yrs old, C, Maryland
6’10 225lbs; 7’2” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 15.5 PPG; 10.5 RPG; 0.8 APG; 2.4
BLK; 1.7 TO; 53.8% FG; 36.8% 3FG

Jalen Smith is a prototypical stretch five with


defensive potential as a rim protector. He can
shoot off the move and will be a huge plus in the
pick and pop. He finishes well around the rim.
On defense, Smith is a great rim protector, but
struggles to guard outside of the paint.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Plus potential on both ends of the floor • Lower body strength
• Shooting off move • Poor passing vision, struggles in traps
• Good touch around the rim • Struggles to create post positioning
• Great rim protector • Defensive footwork on closeouts
• Great offensive rebounder • Struggles to defend in space
(11.5% ORB%) • Poor PNR defender, no effort in drop
coverage
NBA Comparison: Myles Turner, Thomas Bryant
 Jalen Smith will be used specifically in pick and pop and catch and shoot situations.
He can be used in many different screening actions, such as corner pins, flares, and
floppy screens into down screens. He may struggle early around the rim due to his
lack of lower body strength, especially in post ups. He will not be able to get good
positioning, forcing him into face up situations. On defense, he must learn to guard in
space. If not, he will become a block chaser, flailing for every shot taken.
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Choice #3
RJ Hampton 19 yrs old, G, New Zealand
Breakers (NBL)
6’5 188lbs; 6’7 Wingspan
2019-20 (15 games): 8.8 PPG; 3.9 RPG; 2.4 APG; 1.1
STL; 1.5 TO; 40.7% FG; 29.5% 3FG

With a short season due to injuries, RJ


Hampton has fallen from his original
projections, but still is a player that could be
the steal of the draft that teams saw coming out
of high school as a top prospect.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Loves to run in transition • Right hand heavily dominant
• Good athleticism, bounce for alley oops • Unreliable shooter, unable to come off
and transition dunks screen/dribble and consistently knock
• Sneaky speed/quickness, gets off down shots
screens and explodes to the basket • Slow defensively; blow by, low motor
• Good pick and roll ball handler, uses • Slow to see plays develop and read
screens to get position to drive defenses
• Potential as a playmaker on the • Poor footwork on jump shot
defensive end
NBA Comparison: Dante Exum, Michael Carter-Williams
 As one of highest ranked high schoolers, R.J. Hampton did not meet expectations in
the NBL. With a very serious hip flexor injury, Hampton only played 15 professional
games before beginning rehab and training for the NBA draft. Front offices view him
as a late steal and project to maximize his potential. He showed exception athleticism
when attacking downhill but lacks a lot of the necessary intangibles.
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ROUND 2 PICK 33
Choice #1
Zeke Nnaji 19 yrs old, C, Arizona
6’11 240lbs; 7’1” Wingspan
2019-20 (32 games): 16.1 PPG; 8.6 RPG; 0.8 APG; 0.9 BLK; 2.2
TO; 57.0% FG; 29.4% 3FG

Zeke Nnaji has a unique blend of skills for a center. He


has the potential to be a stretch big even though he has
not necessarily shown it yet. He is an active rim runner
that also attacks the offensive glass well. Defensively, he
guards well in space but struggles as a playmaker around
the rim.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Good finisher around the rim • Needs to add muscle
• Runs the floor well • Lacks explosiveness
• Good jumper from mid-range • Struggles to take care of the ball
• Could develop three-point shot • Black hole with the ball
• Can score off the dribble occasionally • Not a rim protector or defensive playmaker
• Guards well in space
NBA Comparison: Jason Thompson, Jordan Hill
 Zeke Nnaji will be a versatile role player. His ceiling is limited by his lack of burst
and explosion as well as the assumed development of his jump shot. He has a very
good foundation and form to his shot. He will be asked to set a ton of screens at the
next level. He also needs to learn how to pass out of the post. On defense, he will be
capable of switching in the pick and roll onto most guards. He is a decent positional
defender with good hips and footwork, but he may struggle to be much of a rim
deterrent.
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Choice #2
Xavier Tillman 21 yrs old, C, Michigan State
6’8 245lbs; 7’1” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 13.7 PPG; 10.3 RPG; 3.0 APG; 2.1
BLK; 2.0 TO; 55.0% FG; 26.0% 3FG

Xavier Tillman is an undersized big man who can


score in the post and off cuts to the rim. He is an
above average passer. Defensively, he is
extremely intelligent and excels in most defensive
disciplines. His ceiling is capped by his age, lack
of shooting, and explosiveness.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Creative screener, sets hard picks • Consistency issues on jump shot
• Good scorer on off-ball cuts • Undersized center
• Good passer in short roll out of PNR • Not very mobile or athletic
• Extremely strong, high motor • Age is a ceiling limiter
• Vocal defender • Not much of a shot creator off the dribble
• Can switch when defending PNR
NBA Comparison: Derrick Favors, Khem Birch
 Xavier Tillman has a high floor and a rather low ceiling. He is a hard-working role
player who gets his teammates open with hard screens in unique locations and
actions. He will be a capable big in the PNR as he can finish around the rim or create
for other in the short roll. He will not offer floor spacing by any means. He is an
excellent defender but is undersized and is not very explosive. Off the court, Tillman
is one the best prospects in this class.
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Choice #3
Paul Reed 21 yrs old, F/C, DePaul
6’9 220lbs; 7’2” Wingspan
2019-20 (29 games): 15.1 PPG; 10.7 RPG; 1.6
APG; 2.6 BLK; 2.3 TO; 51.6% FG; 30.8% 3FG

Paul Reed is a defense first player. He is an


athletic force that can make plays on that
end of the floor. He averaged 4.5 BLK/STL
per game. Offensively, he is at his best in
transition but struggles in the half court.
Motor and effort are huge issues for Reed.
He is a great defender and hustle player
when he is locked in.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Finishes well around the rim • Does not care for setting screens
• Excels in transition • Low motor off the ball
• Spot up shooting in small volume • Inconsistent shooting mechanics
• Offensive rebounding • Poor shot selection
(11.1% ORB% and 3.3 per game) • Gets caught ball watching on defense and
• Rim protection hunting for steals / blocks
• (9.7% BLK% and 2.6 per game) • Gets into foul trouble
• Held defense • Needs to add size
NBA Comparison: Cheick Diallo, Jonathan Isaac
 Paul Reed has a high ceiling as a defensive force that can make plays at the rim and in
passing lanes. On offense, his ceiling is being a capable three-point shooter off the
catch. His effort and care for the game is a huge swing skill. He must consistently set
hard screens on offense and make correct rotations on defense. Foul trouble could
also follow him throughout his career if he chases blocks.
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Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Kylor Kelley, 23 years old, 7’0, Oregon State
2. Nathan Knight, 23 years old, 6’10, William & Mary
3. Josh Hall, 20 years old, 6’9, Moravian Prep

Timberwolves Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Evan Turner $18,606,556
II. Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
1. Juan Hernangomez $4,642,800
2. Malik Beasley $3,895,424
III. Player Option
1. James Johnson $16,047,100
IV. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Jarred Vanderbilt $1,663,861
2. Jaylen Nowell $1,517,981
3. Naz Reid $1,517,981
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($3,182,542)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $34,942,890
Who stays, Who goes
▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Evan Turner (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 40.8%]
Evan Turner was sent to Minnesota to match salary in the four-team trade that sent
Clint Capela to Atlanta. He was a bench warmer with Atlanta this past year, only
playing in 19 games and never suiting up for Minnesota. The Timberwolves even
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allowed him to work out for the LA Clippers before the buyout deadline while he was
still under contract with the Timberwolves. He will be looking for a new team this
offseason.
2. Jarred Vanderbilt (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 51.1%]
Jarred Vanderbilt has been relegated to mainly G League minutes during his two
years in the NBA. Any time he has played on an NBA court was during garbage time.
In the G League, he was a very active rebounder, especially on the offensive glass. He
has a very good second jump. Coach Saunders requires shooting in some capacity to
break into the Timberwolves’ rotation, which Vanderbilt does not possess at the
moment. On offense, he does show some real playmaking, especially in transition. He
really struggled with turnovers though. In 20 G League games spread across three
teams, he averaged 2.2 assists while also turning the ball over 3.7 times per game. This
is unacceptable, especially at the G League level. With three draft picks, the
Timberwolves will bring in serious competition to take his roster spot. His lack of
shooting combined with his carelessness with the ball should leave him on the outside
looking in at the Timberwolves roster.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Juan Hernangomez (Projected $5,000,000-$8,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 3.5%]
Juan Hernangomez was another piece included in the Malik Beasley trade. He also
saw his efficiency and volume skyrocket after joining the Timberwolves. His TS%
increased by 15.4 points. His field goal attempts per game tripled. His lack of
consistent playing time in Denver may have resulted in lacking confidence, which
ultimately returned in Minnesota. He fits well next to Karl-Anthony Towns and
D’Angelo Russell as a shot maker who plays off the ball (96% of his threes were
assisted). He really struggled to score around the rim, especially for a 6’9 forward
(59.6%). He will add more shooting to a Minnesota lineup that is already stacked with
floor spacers. On defense, he was poor. He was not a rim protector in any sense, as
players shot 14.7% better at the rim when he was the primary defender. His value
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comes from his ability to shoot in low usage situations. Hernangomez will not get
Beasley level money, but he should still get a decent offer from Minnesota.
2. Malik Beasley (Projected $8,000,000-12,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 21.9%]
Malik Beasley was acquired in a midseason trade from the Denver Nuggets. He was
mainly relegated to their bench, coming in with the second unit in every game he
played. Once acquired by Minnesota, he started all 14 games. He could not miss from
three in a Timberwolves jersey. He increased his efficiency (36% to 42.6%, +6.6%)
and volume (3.9 attempts to 8.2 attempts, +4.3) from three-point range. His win shares
per 48 minutes jumped 263% (from 0.3 to 0.79). He moved well off the ball,
especially in screening actions. Although he was mainly an off-ball guard, he can
create his own three point shot when necessary (21% of his threes were unassisted).
He finished well around the rim (67.2%) but did not take a ton of shots in the paint.
Those rim attacks mainly came off cuts. On defense, he was average at best. He has
spoken publicly this year about his desire to improve on defense this offseason.
Beasley will get a multiyear contract in the range of $30 million to $40 million, and
Minnesota should fight to keep his services. Point of information, this is all contingent
on the current felony weapons and drug charges he is facing in Minnesota.
3. James Johnson (Player Option $16,047,100)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 0%]
James Johnson started the 2019-20 on a rough note, being sent home by the Miami
Heat for not meeting their training camp conditioning standards. He was sent to
Minnesota in a three-team trade that put Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala in Miami. In
14 games off the bench for Minnesota, he exceled as a scorer and playmaker.
Offensively he can play the three through five and can guard the one through five and
some capacity on the defensive end of the floor. If Johnson is locked in, he can be a
valuable piece for an extremely young Minnesota team. Johnson will be opting into his
player option.
4. Jaylen Nowell (Non-Guaranteed $1,517,981)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 3 Year Deal: 77.8%]
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Jaylen Nowell’s contract will be guaranteed for his second NBA season. He split time
between Minnesota and Iowa. He was drafted to be a floor spacer after shooting 44%
from deep during his second year at Washington. He struggled to provide that in the
15 games he played in Minnesota, shooting only 11.5% from three, although this was
an extremely small sample size (3 for 26). He was much more efficient with Iowa,
shooting 44.1% from three on 179 attempts. He needs more development to crack the
Timberwolves rotation. Another year with Iowa would do him well.
5. Naz Reid (Non-Guaranteed $1,517,981)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 3 Year Deal: 90.5%]
Naz Reid was signed as an undrafted rookie to the Timberwolves summer league
team. He eventually signed a two-way contract which was changed to a multiyear
partially guaranteed contract. He dominated in the G League with Iowa. He showed
potential to grow on defense, his main weakness, as he did a decent job of making
plays with steals (STL% of 2.2%) and blocks (BLK% of 4.8%). He has some stretch
five potential and passes well for a big man. Even though his numbers may not show
volume in passing, he created some good looks and worked well off of Karl-Anthony
Towns. He has a versatile skill set. He can operate in spot up situations, as a roll man,
or even in 45 sets with Towns. He has shown improvement to the weaknesses that
plagued him at LSU and should get his contract guaranteed for this season.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Jerami Grant 6’8 210lbs 26 years old, PF/SF, Current Salary: $9,346,153
Projected Annual Salary: $12,000,000-$15,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 1.4%
Jerami Grant is a budding 3&D player. His value skyrocketed during the Nuggets playoff run.
Although his statistical profile regressed some from the regular season, he passed the eye test
with flying colors. He was a competent third or fourth option for the Nuggets when Jamal
Murray and Nikola Jokic received extra defensive attention. Over the past two seasons, Grant has
shown consistently on good volume from three, shooting 39.1% on 545 attempts. He is a plus
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player in low volume isolations and at finishing around the rim. He is a competent finisher
around the rim and excels at drawing contact. He does not add much value as a playmaker, but
shot finishing is more of his offensive role and not shot creation. He is adept at most facets of
defense. He was versatile in his matchups, guarding every position for at least 10% of
possessions. He is a good rim deterrent in low volume, blocking 25% of all the shots that he
contested. He still has at least another year or two of growth before his peak. If his playmaking
improves on both ends of the floor, he could be a top 50 player in the league.

Option #2:
Justin Holiday 6’6 180lbs 31 years old, SG, Current Salary: $4,767,000
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000-$8,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 50.6%
Just Holiday is a solid low volume two guard. His role offensively is to move off the ball and
gets shots off on the perimeter. Almost 70% of his shots came from three, where he was
extremely efficient. He shot 42.4% from three while being a perimeter focus for defenses. Only
19% of his threes were considered open shots according to Bball Index. He cannot create those
shots for himself but plays well off of a ball dominant guard (97% of his threes were assisted).
Holiday really does not provide much else on the offensive end besides that spacing. He only
takes 2 shots at the rim per 75 possessions and is very passive in his passing. Defensively, he is
very versatile, spending significant time guarding the two through four. He is a very active
perimeter defender that battles every possession. He is a superior interior defender compared to
other guards. This allows his team to make more rotations because the backside can rotate to rim
protection as well. Holiday is a prototypical 3&D player.

Option #3:
Aron Baynes 6’10 260lbs, 33 years old, C, Current Salary: $5,453,280
Projected Annual Salary: $8,000,000-$12,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 17.5%
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Aaron Baynes is a bruiser off the bench. In Phoenix, he showed potential as a floor spacer. He
went on an 11-game stretch shooting 47% from deep. He was inconsistent though, also going
through a 28-game stretch where he delt with injury and shot 25% from deep. His value depends
on which stretches potential teams find more valuable. He has surprising value in isolations.
While only averaging 1.7 isolations per 75 possessions, he had an EFG% of 61.1% (91st
percentile amongst bigs). He is a below average finisher around the rim, but still provide some
value in the pick and roll as a passer out of the short roll and a threat to pop. His ability to pop
forces teams out of drop coverage. On defense, his stats do not pop in any facet, but he is an
enforcer that plays hard every possession. Off the court, he is beloved in locker rooms and has a
cult following amongst fans.

Option #4:
Torrey Craig 6’7 220lbs, 29 years old, SF, Current Salary: $2,000,000
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Contract: 0.3%
Torrey Craig is slashing defensive minded wing. He is exceptional at finishing around the rim at
73.9%, even though it was on low volume (3.3 attempts per 75 possessions). He has rather poor
shot selection from three, with only 15% of his threes being considered open even though he
does not provide much gravity as a wing. Even with that, he was average as far as efficiency
goes with a TS% of 56% and 1.04 PPP in spot up situations. He is a poor play maker, not adding
much value there. He is in the top tier of wings when it comes to crashing the offensive glass. He
averaged 2 offensive rebounds per 75 possessions and did a great job of chasing loose balls and
long rebounds. On the defensive end of the floor, his role is to guard top tier creators and be a
pest when chasing off the ball. He can add value as a lengthy defender when guarding the one
and two. He is a slightly below average player on offense and is impactful on the defensive end.

Option #5:
Jeff Green 6’8 235lbs 34 years old, C/PF/SF, Current Salary: $439,475
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
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Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 69.6%


Jeff Green is a solid veteran presence who provides excellent value for a minimum contract. He
really showed what he can contribute once he got traded to Houston and started receiving
minutes at the five spot. He has shown some streaky shooting in the past, but really took control
in their bubble playoff run. He shot 42.6% from three on 54 attempts. Green has consistently
shown an ability to step up in the playoffs throughout his career (51.9% conversion on corner
threes in the playoffs vs 38.5% conversion rate during the regular season, an increase of
+13.4%). Green is also good at moving and cutting off the ball, being in the 90th percentile in
Bball Index’s stats regarding off-ball cuts. On the defensive side of the ball, Green was a force in
the playoffs. When guarding isolations, he gave up 0.73 PPP on a FG% of 36% according to
Stats.NBA. He showed versatility during the regular season as well, guarding every position for
at least 13% of his defensive possessions. Green has carved out a new role with Houston as a
legitimate small ball five. This role could translate to a multitude of playoff contenders.

Trade Scenarios
1. Washington Wizards
Wizards Receiving: Josh Okogie, Jarret Culver, James Johnson,
2020 1st Round Pick (1st overall), 2020 1st Round Pick (17th overall)
Timberwolves Receiving: Bradley Beal, 2020 1st Round Pick (9th
overall)
In this trade, the Minnesota Timberwolves put together one of the top backcourts in the league
by pairing D’Angelo Russell with Bradley Beal. Beal is an instant scoring punch as he averaged
30.5 points per game in Washington during the 2019-20 season. He would be a solid pick and
roll partner for Karl Anthony-Towns as he averaged 0.98 points per possession in the pick and
roll. They also still manage to retain a lottery pick in this draft. With that pick they can target a
defensive minded wing such as Devin Vassell. For the Washington Wizards, this trade relies on
their willingness to attack a complete rebuild if they do not see potential in John Wall returning
to All-Star form. Washington receives two young wings in Jarrett Culver and Josh Okogie, as
well as two great picks in this draft to jumpstart a rebuild.
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2. Indiana Pacers
Pacers Receiving: James Johnson, Jarrett Culver, 2020 1st Round
Pick (17th overall)
Timberwolves Receiving: Victor Oladipo
Victor Oladipo’s trade value is at the lowest it has been since being traded to Indiana in the Paul
George deal. He has been busy rehabbing a torn quadricep tendon. It has now been nearly two
years since he last played a game at full health. He has stated that he does not see a future for
himself in Indiana. Minnesota could bet on him in a power grab to get into the playoffs. He
would fit well next to Russell as the primary defender on lead guards. Playing off the ball over
this next year on offense would also allow him to slowly get back to his All-Star form. Jarrett
Culver could be valuable to a Pacers franchise that may be looking at revamping the roster. The
Brooklyn pick is another piece of draft capital in a valuable spot in the draft. There is a
legitimate chance that a lottery level talent like Cole Anthony falls to this spot due to his soft
skills and injury issues. James Johnson will be included to match salary.

3. Chicago Bulls
Bulls Receiving: James Johnson, Jake Layman, Jacob Evans,
Omari Spellman, Jarred Vanderbilt, 2020 1st Round Pick (1st
overall)
Timberwolves Receiving: Otto Porter Jr, 2020 1st Round Pick (4th
overall)
This trade comes into play if Minnesota is not enthusiastic about Anthony Edwards, LaMelo
Ball, or James Wiseman. With this trade, they make the move out of the top three while adding a
starting wing to their rotation. Otto Porter can add real value as a floor spacer to an offense that
is built around shooting. In return, Minnesota sends the number one overall pick, a salary filler in
James Johnson, and three players with potential to crack the back end of a rotation. If Jarred
Vanderbilt does not find a role during camp, Chicago can cut their losses and take salary relief.
With the number one overall pick, the Chicago Bulls would most likely be looking at Ball or
Edwards.
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NEW ORLEANS PELICANS


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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
LVI. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 13
b. Round 2: Picks 39, 42, and 60
LVII. Draft Needs
a. Perimeter Shooting
i. Despite the Pelicans ranking toward the top of the league in 3pt
efficiency (37% 3pt%, 7th in league), there is never enough
shooting. With Hayes and Williamson assuming larger roles
next season, they will need to surround those guys with more
shooting.
b. Active Forward
i. Hustle Rebounder, Defensive presence 3-5, gritty
LVIII. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Pelicans Free Agency
XX. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XXI. Free Agent Targets
XXII. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 13:


Choice #1
Aaron Nesmith 21 yrs old, SG, Vanderbilt
6’6 215lbs; 6’11 Wingspan
2019-20 (14 games): 23.0 PPG; 4.9 RPG; 0.9 APG; 1.4
STL; 1.7 TO; 51.2% FG; 52.2% 3FG

Aaron Nesmith is a floor spacing wing. During


his sophomore year, he was an elite shooter
from behind the three-point line. He is limited in
other parts of his offensive game such as his
playmaking. Defensively, he uses his wingspan
well and works well off the ball. Injury concerns
will most likely not carry forward as there is
little risk for reinjury with a stress fracture.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Floor spacing and shooting • Limited as an on-ball scorer
• Shoots well off of motion, low volume • Court awareness, basic passing reads
• Squares up well to the rim • Lack of spatial awareness
• Decent shot selection, uses side step well • Does not move well laterally
• Solid packline defender off-ball • Will get attacked in POA
• Makes good rotations, can take charges • Extremely flat footed
• Solid frame for a wing, length and size • Poor defender in PNR
NBA Comparison: Cameron Johnson, Buddy Hield
 Aaron Nesmith is a lottery prospect because of his three-point shooting. His volume
and efficiency was literally off the charts. A full season at this level would have
moved him up draft boards, but due to a stress fracture he was not around for SEC
play. He fits well into the archetype of a 3&D wing, especially if he can improve his
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hips and footwork. He would be a good fit with a contender as he can step in and
space the floor.

Choice #2
Tyrell Terry 19 yrs old, G, Stanford
6’2 160lbs; N/A Wingspan
2019-20: 14.6 PPG; 4.5 RPG; 3.2 APG; 1.4
STL; 2.6 TO; 44.1% FG; 40.8% 3FG

Tyrell Terry is a threat to shoot from


anywhere. The small guard from
Stanford showed creativity in both his
shooting and when finishing in tough
situations around the rim.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Automatic scorer, limitless range; has a • Physical intangibles; extremely
natural feel to shoot undersized small guard
• Pull up transition 3’s, great footwork • NEEDS to add weight
• Great coming on off ball screens, drifts • Has not developed mid-range game, 15-
to the corner to get to his spot 18 ft. pull up
• Can score down low with creativity • Can improve ball handling
• Great at running in transition • Knows weak spot is defense
• High basketball IQ • Develop a better passing game

NBA Comparison: CJ McCollum, Seth Curry, Trae Young


 Tyrell Terry has obviously shown he can score at will. His jump shooting ability and
ability to knock down 3’s both off the dribble and pull up in transition is elite. His
lack of height and skinny frame are big issues that rear their ugly heads on the
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defensive end of the floor. He shows high value defensive positioning at times, but
physically cannot compete on that end of the floor.

Choice #3
Jalen Smith 20 yrs old, C, Maryland
6’10 225lbs; 7’2” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 15.5 PPG; 10.5 RPG; 0.8 APG; 2.4
BLK; 1.7 TO; 53.8% FG; 36.8% 3FG

Jalen Smith is a prototypical stretch five with


defensive potential as a rim protector. He can
shoot off the move and will be a huge plus in the
pick and pop. He finishes well around the rim.
On defense, Smith is a great rim protector, but
struggles to guard outside of the paint.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Plus potential on both ends of the floor • Lower body strength
• Shooting off move • Poor passing vision, struggles in traps
• Good touch around the rim • Struggles to create post positioning
• Great rim protector • Defensive footwork on closeouts
• Great offensive rebounder • Struggles to defend in space
(11.5% ORB%) • Poor PNR defender, no effort in drop
coverage
NBA Comparison: Myles Turner, Thomas Bryant
 Jalen Smith will be used specifically in pick and pop and catch and shoot situations.
He can be used in many different screening actions, such as corner pins, flares, and
floppy screens into down screens. He may struggle early around the rim due to his
lack of lower body strength, especially in post ups. He will not be able to get good
positioning, forcing him into face up situations. On defense, he must learn to guard in
space. If not, he will become a block chaser, flailing for every shot taken.
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ROUND 2 PICKS 39 & 42


Choice #1
Devon Dotson 21 yrs old, G, Kansas
6’2 185lbs; 6’3¼ Wingspan
2019-20: 18.1 PPG; 3.5 RPG; 4.0 APG; 2.1
STL; 2.4 TO; 46.8% FG; 30.9% 3FG

Devon Dotson is another impressive


guard coming out of the Bill Self group
in Kansas. Dotson showed an
impressive ability to get downhill and
finish well around the rim for a smaller
guard.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Electric speed, able to blow by defenders • Small frame, needs to add strength
using change of speed • Needs to work on outside shot, regressed in
• Very smart and smooth ball handler, has 3pt% from fr to sop year (36.3% to 30.9%)
the craftiness of your typical NBA ball • Needs to develop more of a playmaking
handler prowess
• Even with smaller frame, finishes well • Needs to develop more ball handling
• Consistent, started 66 consecutive games at moves
34 MPG • Has to add mid-range to offensive game,
• Moves well laterally on defense be a complete scorer
• Reads passing lanes and translates to points
NBA Comparison: Frank Mason, Cory Joseph
 Devon Dotson returned after a very impressive freshman and continued to show
improvement in his game throughout his sophomore year. He was one of the best
guards in the country at finishing around the rim. He showed a lot of poise for an
underclassman.
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Choice #2
Cassius Winston 22 yrs old, PG, Michigan State
6’1 185lbs, 6’5” Wingspan
2019-20 (30 games): 18.6 PPG; 2.5 RPG; 5.9 APG; 1.2
STL; 3.2 TO; 44.8% FG; 43.2% 3FG

Cassius Winston is a versatile offensive player that


will be able to play as a pick and roll ball handler or
catch and shoot off guard. On defense, he will need
to be hidden as he does not offer much value on
that end of the floor.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Versatile scorer off multiple actions • May struggle to finish around the rim
• Plus shooter off catch and off dribble (52.3% at rim)
• Uses his frame well to create contact • Getting downhill against NBA defenders
• Elite shooter from three • Restricted to guarding 1s and small 2s
(44.7% on C&S threes) • Lacks NBA size, needs to add muscle
• High IQ passer that can push the pace • Gets beat in POA against quicker guards
• Scoring gravity opens up PNR • Teams will look for switches when he
• Solid awareness as an off-ball defender guards PNR
NBA Comparison: Devonte’ Graham, J.J. Barea
 Cassius Winston will be able to step into a rotation as a lead or auxiliary guard off the
bench almost immediately. In interviews, he carries himself well and should take
control of his role. He can push the pace and take control of the offense as well as sit
back and feed his teammates. Defense will be a concern for him as he is undersized
and lacks the foot speed to keep up with quicker guards.
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Choice #3
Mason Jones 22 yrs old, G, Arkansas
6’5 200lbs
2019-20 (31 games): 22.0 PPG; 5.5 RPG; 3.4 APG; 1.6
STL; 3.2 TO; 45.3% FG; 35.1% 3FG

Mason Jones played juco ball before transferring


to Arkansas. He is a three-level scorer that can
generate buckets at will. He can make tough
shots off the dribble. He has potential to be a
PNR initiator. On defense, he is at his best when
guarding off the ball. He is limited by his
athleticism and age.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Three-level scorer • Limited athleticism
• Draws fouls at an extremely high rate • Age limits his ceiling
(0.668 FTr) • Forces turnovers, may improve with
• Uses his body well when attacking the rim smaller offensive role
• Creates space with sidestep and triple • Does not add value in rotations to the rim
threat moves • Quiet on defense
• Reads passing lanes well on defense
• Active defender on the ball
NBA Comparison: Fred VanVleet, Lou Williams
 Mason Jones is an immediate impact player as a scoring guard off the bench. He
operates as an on-ball scorer that can shoot off the dribble from deep and attack the
rim. He will be able to rely on his ability to draw fouls when he gets to the next level.
On defense, the goal is for him to be average. He will struggle to guard pick and roll
actions as well as point of attack, while having the foundational off-ball principles
down.
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Choice #4
Udoka Azubuike 21 yrs old, C, Kansas
7’0 260lbs; 7’7” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 13.7 PPG; 10.5 RPG; 0.9 APG;
2.6 BLK; 74.8% FG; 0% 3FG

Udoka Azubuike is a force in the paint. His


play style is that of a traditional five that
dunks, rebounds, and blocks shots. An NBA
ready frame is an understatement, as he has
shed 20 pounds of excess weight and boasts
the best wingspan in the class.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Great NBA frame • Low ceiling due to limited scoring
• Best finisher around the rim in NCAA potential outside of paint
• +7 wingspan • Needs work guarding PNR
• Quick jumper off vert • Conditioning and injury concerns
• Great hands, can catch anything around • Free throw shooting
the rim • Black hole on offense
• Shot blocker on defense • Not a great runner

NBA Comparison: Boban Marjanovic, Rudy Gobert


 Udoka Azubuike is a raw player with the physical skills to step into a rotation. He
will be an efficient scorer around the rim due to his length and quick vertical. He will
be limited in late game situations due to his poor free throw numbers. He may
struggle on defense initially due to his limited potential as a pick and roll defender.
He will have to play in drop coverage. He may also be a player that seeks out blocked
shots instead of the right defensive play. Conditioning will be key for him over an 82-
game season.
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ROUND 2 PICK 60
Choice #1
Ty-Shon Alexander 22 yrs old, G, Creighton
6’4 195lbs; 6’8” Wingspan
2019-20: 16.9 PPG; 5.0 RPG; 2.3 APG; 1.3 STL; 1.4 TO;
43.1% FG; 39.9% 3FG

Ty-Shon Alexander is a 3&D two guard. He excels


in catch and shoot situations. He efficient with his
possessions, rarely turning the ball over. He will
not provide much outside of floor spacing on
offense. Defensively, he is at his best when
guarding shooters. He defends well on initial
attacks to the rim as well.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Solid shooter with high efficiency and • Undersized
volume • Below average athlete
• Takes care of the ball, TOV% has • Does not add value on the ball
dropped every season • Average footwork
• Attacking of closeouts • Capable passer, but does not exactly
• Defends POA well excel
• Chases shooters through screens well • Ball handling and continued
• Rotates well on defense, playmaker in improvement in PNR would help
these rotations
NBA Comparison: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Gray Trent Jr.
 Ty-Shon Alexander may need another year or two of development before he can step
in as a steady rotation piece. He needs to keep improving on his weaknesses to be
more well-rounded. For defense, he needs to add some more strength and keep
improving on skills like his footwork.
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Choice #2
Killian Tillie 22 yrs old, C, Gonzaga
6’10 220lbs; 6’10 Wingspan
2019-20 (24 games): 13.6 PPG; 5.0 RPG; 1.9 APG; 1.0
STL; 53.5% FG; 40.0% 3FG

Killian Tillie is an extremely talented big man


who has faced serious injury concerns. He offers
versatility and the ability to stretch the floor on
offense. Defensively, he is a high IQ player with
solid positioning and good footwork. His outcome
depends mainly on his health.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Good shooting range • Missed 37 college games due to hip, foot,
• Quick decision maker in passing and knee injuries
situations, potential in short roll • Lacks vertical athleticism, will not be a
• Can post up mismatches with good touch rim protector
and footwork • Poor screen setter, slips almost every
• Smart when slipping screens screening action
• High IQ defender • Cannot hedge or drop vs PNR
• Uses length well in passing lanes • Closeouts are inconsistent
• Good positional defender in post
NBA Comparison: Nicolo Melli, Nemanja Bjelica, Maxi Kleber
 Killian Tillie is a legitimate stretch five. He will step in on offense specifically in pick
and pop actions. Tillie can also be effective in DHOs with effective cutters around
him. Defensively, he will be competent due to his solid foundation on the positioning
and mental side. His health is going to be his swing skill. His medical records could
dictate his draft stock.
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Choice #3
Yam Madar 19 yrs old, G, Hapoel Tel Aviv (BSL)
6’3 180lbs
2019-20 (32 games): 10.6 PPG; 2.4 RPG; 3.4 APG; 2.6 TO, 1.0
STL; 44.4% FG; 26.7% 3FG

Yam Madar improved his draft stock toward the end of


the BSL season. He is a defense first guard with a great
motor. He defends well in the pick and roll as well as
point of attack actions. Most of his offense comes from
5-20 feet. He has potential to be a three-point shooter
but still has a way to go.
Strengths Weaknesses
• FT% points toward progression with • Undersized off-ball guard
shooting (81.2%) • Decision making is a minus, not a
• Creates space in the midrange dynamic facilitator
• Decent touch on floater • Statistically poor three-point shooter
• Invites contact (26.7%)
• Can pick up 94ft on defense • Below average athleticism, plays
• Fights hard through screens primarily below the rim
• Exceptional motor • Questions about how he would do with
increased volume

NBA Comparison: Patrick Beverly, Ish Smith


 Yam Madar is an unknown commodity with solid potential. He is a plus on defense
immediately due to the effort he gives on that end of the floor. He would fit well in
DHO actions as he can get downhill without isolating on the ball. His shooting still
needs work, but he is young. He still has time to add that to his repertoire.
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Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Trent Forrest, 22 years old, 6’4, Florida State
2. Omer Yurtsteven, 22 years old, 7’0, Georgetown
3. Borisa Simanic, 22 years old, 6’11, KK Crvena zvezda

Pelicans Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Derrick Favors $17,650,000
2. E’Twaun Moore $8,664,928
3. Jahlil Okafor $1,702,486
4. Sindarius Thornwell (bubble)
II. Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
1. Brandon Ingram $7,265,485
2. Frank Jackson $1,618,520
3. Kenrich Williams $1,416,852
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): $18,486,828
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $35,112,840

Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Derrick Favors (Projected $8,000,000-$12,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 66.1%]
Derrick Favors is still a classic back to the basket big in a evolving NBA, Favors is not
a floor spacer on offense, instead being more of a finisher around the rim. He finished
well going against contact (70.6% FG% at the rim) last season. He is aggressive
attacking the offensive glass (4.7 ORB per 75 possessions, 91st percentile) creating
kickout opportunities for shooters. He also is an elite force on the defensive glass.
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With the new hire of Stan Van Gundy and the vocality of their plan to build around
last year’s number one pick forward Zion Williamson, Favors no longer has a spot to
contribute on this rebuilding Pelicans roster.
2. E’Twaun Moore (Projected $3,000,000-$6,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 41.6%]
E’Twaun had a bit of a struggle this past season. His main offensive role is to shoot
threes off the catch, shooting over 37% from three each of the past three seasons. A lot
of his shots come off screening actions, and he knows how to navigate them well. He
also does a surprisingly good job in isolations, as he does a good job creating space.
He is also a plus at creating, opening the floor up for him some. Defensively, he does
not add much value. He was consistently attacked in pick and roll switches. Even
when guarding his own man on the perimeter, he did not add much value. He typically
guards the worse guard or wing on the court. He does a decent job in off-ball
situations, reading passing lanes well and playing solid help. Moore can be a
secondary creator off the bench in spot minutes, but mainly residing in an off-ball
shooting role.
3. Jahlil Okafor (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 70.4%]
The former 3rd overall pick in the 2015 draft continued to struggle with injuries and
production for another consecutive year. Jahlil Okafor only appeared in 30 games this
past season with a limited number of minutes only coming to 15 per game. Okafor
showed his known abilities on the offensive end when he was able to appear this past
season. Okafor shot 62.3% from the field on nearly six attempts per game. Okafor
finished in the 94th and 93rd percentile in finishing at the rim rate and overall finishing
talent. Down low he knows how to use his skill to make interior shots. Where Okafor
has continued to lack any sort of ability is on the defensive end. He ended the year
with a -2.2 defensive RAPTOR rating giving him a grade of F among all bigs across
the NBA. With the lack of development defensively and consistent injury issues, the
Pelicans will most likely look to let the former Duke big man walk.
4. Sindarius Thornwell (Projected Minimum)
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[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 33.7%]


Sindarius Thornwell only appeared in two games for New Orleans this past season so
it seems as if he will not be returning next year. Thornwell was a rotational piece for in
his first two seasons with the Clippers but after no sample size in New Orleans there is
not much of a reason to keep him on their roster.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Brandon Ingram (Projected Max Contract)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 4 Year Deal: 0.0%]
After acquiring Brandon Ingram from the Lakers before last season we had only seen a
small sample of Ingram’s talent. His move to the Pelicans truly allowed him to
blossom and see the skill level from the former 2nd overall pick. Ingram became the
vocal point of the Pelicans offensive and thrived in his new role. Ingram averaged 23.8
PPG with a shooting line of 46.3% FG and 39.1 3FG. He also averaged 6.1 rebounds
and one total steal per game. Ingram’s breakout year earned him Most Improved
Player honors and showed he can be one of top scorers in the league. This breakout
season in a contract year will most likely earn Ingram a max deal. The Pelicans were
able to make it to the bubble and proved their young core can truly compete for a
playoff spot in the highly competitive Western Conference. The Pelicans should and
will most likely give Ingram his well-earned max offer sheet.
2. Frank Jackson (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 13.6%]
This past season Frank Jackson fell a bit further down in the rotation from his rookie
campaign. His minutes fell a bit from 19 his rookie year to just 13.5 last year. Even in
limited action the Pelicans still showed they value the former Duke guard. Jackson
shot 32.6% from behind the arc and a respectable 40% from the corner. Jackson may
not jump off the stat line but turning 22 this upcoming year Jackson still fits on the
Pelicans building and developing a young roster.
3. Kenrich Williams (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 0.1%]
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Kenrich Williams was an extreme negative on offense. He was one of the worst
offensive players in the league. His true shooting percentage came in at 42.9%. Even
at the rim he only shot 55.3%, which is below league average. On defense, he showed
some potential as a perimeter defender. He will get resigned due to his potential as a
defensive minded forward.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Goran Dragić 6’3 190lbs 34 years old, PG, Current Salary: $19,217,900
Projected Annual Salary: $12,000,000-$17,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 7.2%
Despite the emergence of rookie Kenrick Nunn and his lack of starts this season, Goran Dragic
was still able to average 16.2 PPG, 5.1 APG, while shooting 44.1% from the field and 36.7%
from behind the arc in about 28 minutes per game. Dragic has very good body control along with
the ability to create space, especially out of the pick and roll. He does a good job of creating his
own three-point shot off the dribble as well (35% of his threes were unassisted). He can operate
as both a game manager that will allow teammates to take over and lead guard when the offense
is stagnant. If Dragic is looking for a multi-year deal, New Orleans could be willing to offer that.
He would fit right in with New Orleans high tempo offense and complement Brandon Ingram
and Zion Williamson well.

Option #2:
Jerami Grant 6’8 210lbs 26 years old, PF/SF, Current Salary: $9,346,153
Projected Annual Salary: $12,000,000-$15,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 1.4%
Jerami Grant is a budding 3&D player. His value skyrocketed during the Nuggets playoff run.
Although his statistical profile regressed some from the regular season, he passed the eye test
with flying colors. He was a complementary third or fourth option for the Nuggets when Jamal
Murray and Nikola Jokic received extra defensive attention. Over the past two seasons, Grant has
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shown consistently on good volume from three, shooting 39.1% on 545 attempts. He is a plus
player in low volume isolations and at finishing around the rim. He is a competent finisher
around the rim and excels at drawing contact. He does not add much value as a playmaker, but
shot finishing is more of his offensive role and not shot creation. He is adept at most facets of
defense. He was versatile in his matchups, guarding every position for at least 10% of
possessions. He is a good rim deterrent in low volume, blocking 25% of all the shots that he
contested. If his playmaking improves on both ends of the floor, he could be a top 50 player in
the league.

Option #3:
Serge Ibaka 7’0 235lbs 31 years old, PF/C, Current Salary: $23,271,605
Projected Annual Salary: $15,000,000- $20,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 0.3%
Serge Ibaka is a veteran big man who helps space the floor. Ibaka has seen a bit of his defensive
game diminish but has in turn improved tremendously on the offensive side of the ball.
Defensively he did a good job of contesting shots but has lost the ability to block shots at a high
rate (contested 39% of rim attempts, blocked 13% of contests). Both with this season and last
season’s NBA Finals run with the Raptors, Ibaka has had a huge impact on the Raptor’s offense.
Ibaka is averaging a career high in points this season (15.4 points) and the second most in his
career for rebounding (8.2). With no more Kawhi Leonard, Ibaka has been able to do more on
the offensive side and still shoot a high percentage from the field (51% FG, 38.5% 3FG). He was
extremely impactful as a floor spacer as he got quality shots from three while acting as a
deterrent for help defenders (shooting gravity in the 78th percentile amongst bigs). Ibaka is still
young enough to be looking to cash in on a pay day with the possibility of returning to Toronto
depending on what they decide to do with both him and Fred Van Fleet.

Option #4:
Jevon Carter 6’1 200lbs 25 years old, PG, Current Salary: $1,416,852
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000- $6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 20.3%
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Jevon Carter is an end of rotation signing to add value in specific matchups. Carter drew some
notoriety as a backup point guard during his eight-game run with the Suns in the bubble which
included a 20-point game against the Miami Heat. On the offensive end of the floor, he is only a
plus as a three-point shooter off the catch. He made threes at a good clip, but he did not face
much defensive focus. That 42% clip could face decline if he gets more attention from defenses
as well as when volume increases. Outside of that, Carter is a negative everywhere else on the
offensive side of the ball. Defensively, Carter is a top tier perimeter defender. He uses his body
extremely well and makes it tough for ball handlers. He is a tough defender both as a point of
attack defender and as a team defender.

Option #5
Harry Giles 6’10 240lbs 22 years old, PF/C, Current Salary: $2,578,800
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 64.9%
With only two years in the league, we have only seen a small sample size of what Harry Giles
has to offer at the professional level. Coming out of high school as the #1 recruit in the class of
2016, Giles was viewed as a highly talented power forward. After tearing his ACL for the second
time in his life, Giles missed most of his collegiate time at Duke. Although he declared after not
playing, he was still viewed with the potential of his former #1 status. Things never really
panned out Sacramento with the two sides never fully meshing. Giles averaged just 14 minutes
per game, 7.0 PPG, and 4.0 RPG. Although his production does not seem like much, he is still 21
years old with plenty of upside.

Trade Scenarios
1. Milwaukee Bucks
Bucks Receiving: Lonzo Ball, Nicolo Melli, 2020 2nd Round Pick
(60th overall)
Pelicans Receiving: Eric Bledsoe
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This trade provides both teams & players with a change of scenery. New Orleans needs to get
something out of Lonzo Ball and that may come from trade value instead of on court production.
Milwaukee has no cap space and moving Eric Bledsoe provides flexibility with Ball having one
year left on his contract. More specifically, Milwaukee improves its perimeter shooting (which
they need, having the 8th worst three-point percentage in the league last year) with Ball being
more efficient from three-point range shooting 37.5% compared to Bledsoe’s 34.4%. Also, the
addition of stretch big Nicolo Melli (who did not have a great rookie campaign shooting 33.5%
from three) but should provide Milwaukee with more floor spacing. For New Orleans, they have
Holiday locked in for the next two years, granted he accepts his $26.7 million-dollar player
option. Therefore, they would embrace the opportunity to bring in a more talented shot creating
guard in Bledsoe, who would be a part of their core for the next three years.

2. Los Angeles Lakers and Atlanta Hawks


Lakers Receiving: J.J. Redick, John Collins
Hawks Receiving: Jrue Holiday, Talen Horton-Tucker. 2020 1st
Round Pick (13th overall)
Pelicans Receiving: Danny Green, Dewayne Dedmon, Kyle
Kuzma, 2020 1st Round Pick (6th overall)
New Orleans needs to capitalize on Jrue Holiday’s trade value. This trade provides New Orleans
with another young talent in Kyle Kuzma, moving them up to the 6th pick from their 13th, and
adding an additional second round pick from Atlanta. New Orleans is multiple years away from
contending therefore, moving Holiday and Redick should be priority number one, as they do not
fit their timeline. Danny Green and Dewayne Dedmon are both salary fillers that facilitate the
transaction financially. Atlanta lands the best player in this trade with the addition of all-star Jrue
Holiday. Atlanta’s backcourt of Trae Young and Jrue Holiday should propel them into the
playoffs. Atlanta maintains a lottery selection in this year's draft moving back to the 13th pick, as
well as adds a young versatile player in Talen Horton Tucker. He should see minutes off the
bench for this Hawks team. For Los Angeles, they receive John Collins (and his bird rights) who
would slide in as a starter for Los Angeles and provide them with size and versatility. Collins can
help speed up the pace of the Lakers team, as he averaged 1.43 points per possession in
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transition, ranking in the 85th percentile amongst bigs. In this trade, Los Angeles also acquires a
marksman from deep who will stretch the defense out in J.J Redick. Redick shot 46.7% on catch
and shoot threes this past season.

3. Portland Trailblazers
Trailblazers Receiving: Josh Hart, 2020 2nd Round Pick (37th
overall, 2020 2nd Round Pick (39th overall)
Pelicans Receiving: Zach Collins
This trade allows Portland and New Orleans to move on from bench pieces that just have not
worked out in their respective cities. Josh Hart has not been put in a position to be successful
with the New Orleans Pelicans. He was placed mainly in off-ball situations when he has some
potential for secondary ball handling responsibility in spot situations. Zach Collins battled
injuries this year and eventually went down with season ending ankle surgery. Collins has a
rather low ceiling and with the injury concerns, it may be time to move on considering Damian
Lillard is hitting his prime. The two second round picks could result in nice end of rotation
pieces in a draft class that is deep with older talent.
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NEW YORK KNICKS


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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
LIX. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Picks 8 and 27
b. Round 2: Pick 38
LX. Team Needs
a. Best available ball-dominant guard
i. Elfrid Payton and Reggie Bullock are on their way out. Dennis
Smith Jr may be dealt as a salary filler, has been on decline.
Frank Ntilikina is not a viable option as a primary ball handler.
b. Floor spacers
i. The Knicks struggled to find consistent shooting this last year
(9.6 threes made on 33.7%, last and 27th respectively). RJ
Barrett needs lanes to get downhill and shooters can open those
lanes with shooting gravity.
LXI. Draft Scenarios
a. Pick 8
b. Package pick 27 and pick 38
LXII. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Knicks Free Agency
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XXIII. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XXIV. Free Agent Targets
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ROUND 1 PICK 8
Choice #1
Killian Hayes 19 yrs old, PG, ULM
(Bundesliga)
6’5 195lbs; 6'8 ¼” Wingspan
2019-20 (10 games): 12.8 PPG; 2.3 RPG; 6.2 APG; 1.5
STL; 45.5% FG; 39% 3FG

Killian Hayes is considered by some a top 3


guard in this draft with the potential to go in the
top 5. His playmaking ability and raw scoring
ability makes him one of the more intriguing
guards in the draft. Having not played college
ball his ability to compete against NBA talent is
yet to be seen.
Strengths Weaknesses
• High passing IQ, can make any pass out • Unnecessary risky passes out of downhill
of the pick and roll, and does a good job drives
of drawing attention when attacking • Kills dribble going to right
downhill • Ball watches, struggles to move well off
• Underrated burst when attacking ball
downhill • Low sample size of free throws, but
• Creates space with footwork well excels at hitting free throws
• Solid change of pace and special • Struggles to shoot off the catch, issues lie
awareness in footwork.
• High confidence when looking for shot, • Average perimeter defender at best
solid touch and range with floater
NBA Comparison: DeAngelo Russell, Manu Ginobili, Goran Dragic
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 Killian fits what a rebuilding team is looking for in a guard pairing for the future. He
has shown leadership ability and ability to be a floor general. He will need vast
improvement on making defenders weary of his weak hand.

Choice #2
Devin Vassell 20 yrs old, G/F, FSU
6’7 190lbs; 6’9 ¼ Wingspan
2019-20: 12.7 PPG; 5.1 RPG; 1.6 APG; 1.4
STL; 0.8 TO; 49.0% FG; 41.5% 3FG

Devin Vassell is a 3&D prototype. He


is an efficient shooter off the catch as
well as a defensive playmaker. He has
shown flashes of offensive facilitation
as well.

Strengths Weaknesses
• NBA ready defender, long/lengthy frame • Skinny frame, needs to add weight
• Effort player; never gives up on a play, • Lacks speed and quickness to blow by
threat to make chase down plays in defenders
transition • Lacks a variety of ball handling moves
• Fronts the post well • Not a proficient ball handler
• Shoots 3p at high %, high release point • Can be risk taker on defense, relies on
• Runs floor aggressive on fast break length to recover
• Ability to facilitate the ball even not being • Quicker guards can get past his hips
primary ball handler
NBA Comparison: Khris Middleton, Robert Covington, Mikal Bridges
 Devin Vassell made improvements his shooting ability from freshman to sophomore
year. He has improved his offensive game tremendously and his continual effort on both
ends of the floors shows his determination, maturity, and readiness to play and impact the
next level immediately. With the undersized frame his biggest concern is his ability to
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gain weight, but his length is a huge plus for NBA wings on the defensive end of the
floor.

Choice #3
Tyrese Haliburton 20 yrs old, G, Iowa State
6’5 175lbs; 6’8 Wingspan
2019-20: 15.2 PPG; 5.9 RPG; 6.5 APG; 2.5 STL; 2.8 TO;
50.4% FG; 41.9% 3FG

Tyrese Haliburton is a lengthy, playmaking guard.


His projected fit is as a secondary facilitator. He
operates well both on and off the ball.

Strengths Weaknesses
• High value passer looking to create for • Forces passing at times, tries to make
others, lets the play happen flashy play
• Best action is pick and roll, changes pace • Inconsistent when attacking in pick and
well in this action roll, allows defender to push him away
• Solid floor general from screen
• Confident shooter with solid touch in paint • Shot form/release point, needs to be sped
plus midrange up, inconsistent off the dribble
• Length leads to potential as defensive • Needs to add some weight/strength
playmaker • Falls for pump fakes, leaves feet, needs to
• Solid pack line defender that reads passing stay down and play with a hand up in front
lanes well
NBA Comparison: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dante Exum, Lonzo Ball
 Tyrese Haliburton’ length and ability to get teammates involved gives him great
upside of what he can do with even more talented teammates. For Phoenix, adding
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Haliburton to a team with Devin Booker and company he can greatly impact this team
right away. Learning from the savviness and creativity of Ricky Rubio, scoring
prowess of Booker, and even defensive ability from Jevon Carter.

ROUND 1 PICK 27
Choice #1
Tyrell Terry 20 yrs old, G, Stanford
6’2 160lbs; N/A Wingspan
2019-20: 14.6 PPG; 4.5 RPG; 3.2 APG; 1.4
STL; 2.6 TO; 44.1% FG; 40.8% 3FG

Tyrell Terry is a threat to shoot from


anywhere. The small guard from
Stanford showed creativity in both his
shooting and when finishing in tough
situations around the rim.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Automatic scorer, limitless range; has a • Physical intangibles; extremely
natural feel to shoot undersized small guard
• Pull up transition 3’s, great footwork • NEEDS to add weight
• Great coming on off ball screens, drifts • Has not developed mid-range game, 15-
to the corner to get to his spot 18 ft. pull up
• Can score down low with creativity • Can improve ball handling
• Great at running in transition • Knows weak spot is defense
• High basketball IQ • Develop a better passing game

NBA Comparison: CJ McCollum, Seth Curry, Trae Young


 Tyrell Terry has obviously shown he can score at will. His jump shooting ability and
ability to knock down 3’s both off the dribble and pull up in transition is elite. His
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lack of height and skinny frame are big issues that rear their ugly heads on the
defensive end of the floor. He shows high value defensive positioning at times, but
physically cannot compete on that end of the floor.

Choice #2
Jaden McDaniels 20 yrs old, F, Washington
6’9 200lbs; 7’0” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 13.0 PPG; 5.8 RPG; 2.1 APG; 1.4
BLK; 40.5% FG; 33.9% 3FG

Jaden McDaniels is an athletic forward with


potential to grow, but not much dominance in
any individual skill. He has a unique scoring
package with his ability to score off the dribble
and playmaking. Defensively, he has potential
as a playmaker in passing lanes and rim
protection. He offers versatility as a switchable
defender.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Fits in as a modern positionless player • Extremely inconsistent and inefficient as
• Shoots well off the dribble in the a scorer
midrange • Struggled with turnovers, having a
• His shot may be tough to block with a negative AST:TO ratio
high release point • Extremely poor, attitude, body language
• Rebounded well for someone who • Needs to add size to his frame
guarded mainly on perimeter • Good athlete with poor explosion, quick
• Makes the game look effortless at times twitch athleticism
• Potential as a defensive playmaker • Struggled with fouls on defense

NBA Comparison: Terrence Ross, Derrick Jones Jr


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 Jaden McDaniels is the boom or bust generalization brought to real life. He has the
potential to be an elite scorer off the dribble. The playoffs continuously show that
scoring off the dribble is the skill to covet. The possibility of a bust comes from his
lack of effort, consistency, and maturity (5 technical fouls his fr. year). McDaniels
needs to end up with a franchise with a strong history of developing prospects.

Choice #3
Jah Ramsey 19 yrs old, G, Texas Tech
6’2 190lbs; 6’6” Wingspan
2019-20: 15.0 PPG; 4.0 RPG; 2.2 APG; 1.3 STL; 2.0 TO;
44.2% FG; 42.6% 3FG

Jah Ramsey has potential as a scorer off the bench.


He has a nice shot off the catch and off the dribble.
He needs to work on finishing around the rim and
shot selection. Defensively, he has the build but
struggles to be consistent. He needs work on guarding
actions like PNR.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Plus shooter from three-point range • Basketball IQ
• Can score off the dribble • Very streaky shooter
• Handles the ball well • Struggles to finish around the rim
• Plus athlete vertically and laterally • Average passer at best
• Decent defender when locked in, best • Undersize 2 guard
guarding in POA • Struggles to guard PNR and make
• Scores well in transition rotations
• Defensive footwork needs work
NBA Comparison: Jordan Clarkson, Dillon Brooks
 Jah Ramsey has potential as a future 6th man. He may struggle initially with his
shooting efficiency due to his struggle to create space at times when playing on the
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ball and his low free throw shooting numbers. It would not be surprising if he has a
few games his rookie season where he goes for more than 20 points. On defense, he
may struggle to initially as well due to his lack of ability to guard simple actions like
pick and rolls.

ROUND 2 PICK 38
Choice #1
Cassius Stanley 21 yrs old, SG, Duke
6’6 195lbs; 6’7” Wingspan
2019-20 (29 Games): 12.6 PPG; 4.9 RPG; 1.0 APG; 0.7 STL;
1.9 TO; 47.4% FG; 36.0% 3FG

Cassius Stanley had a disappointing season with Duke.


His draft stock is based off his elite athleticism and
status as a top college player. He struggles to create on
the ball for himself and for others. Defensively he has
shown some value in POA but struggled in team
defense situations.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Top tier scorer in transition • Not an offensive initiator
• Gets above the rim easily • (6.6 AST%)
(32 dunks) • Cannot create for himself
• Potential as an isolation defender (50% of rim attempts were assisted)
• Solid lateral speed • Handle is below average
• Good shot blocker for a guard • Struggled with fouls
(1.1 BLK per 40) (3.2 PF per 40)
• Quick release for jump shot • Old for a college freshman
• Struggles as a team defender in passing
lanes
NBA Comparison: Terrance Ferguson, Glenn Robinson III
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 Cassius Stanley’s draft stock is based off the highlights and potential he showed
before his time at Duke. At Duke he dominated in transition, The recent history of
Duke wings in the NBA is also on his side. The ceiling for him is a 3&D shooting
guard as his lack of playmaking really limits him. There are real defensive concerns
about his ability to guard off the ball along with his motor.

Choice #2
Jay Scrubb 20 yrs old, G, John A. Logan
6’6 200lbs 6’9” wingspan
2019-20 (30 games): 21.9 PPG; 6.8 RPG; 2.7 APG;
1.4 STL; 50.1% FG; 33.3% 3FG

Jay Scrubb is an unproven commodity after


only playing college basketball at the JUCO
level. He is an extremely confident on-ball
scorer first that excels at slashing. He has
tunnel vision and makes soft passes. On
defense, the hope is that his motor picks up.
He offers some playmaking when he tries.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Finishes well at and above the rim • MOTOR is by far the biggest concern,
• Extremely athletic both vertically and both offensively and defensively
laterally • Struggles to shoot with any consistency
• Shoots well off the dribble • Shot selection, blackhole on offense
• Strong handle for a bigger guard • Defensive awareness when making
• Good hips when guarding POA rotations or playing help side
• Can create shot at will • Soft skills, work ethic is suspect

NBA Comparison: Shabazz Muhammad, Dion Waiters


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 Jay Scrubb is a high upside prospect with an extremely low floor. He can get to the
rim and score with the best of them. He does a good job of drawing fouls there as
well. None of that really matters if he does not try to be a better player. He needs to
show effort on defense and when he is playing off the ball. If his motor improves, he
is a steal in the second round. If not, he will be out of the league after his rookie
contract.

Choice #3
Leandro Bolmaro 20 yrs old, F, FC
Barcelona (Liga ACB)
6’7 200lbs; 6'9” Wingspan
2019-20 (7 games): 4.4 PPG; 1.1 RPG; 1.4 APG; 0.9
STL; 46.4% FG; 50.0% 3FG

Leandro Bolmaro is a draft and stash


secondary creator. He has the skills of a guard
with the size of a lanky wing. His jump shot
will be his swing skill. Defensively, he adds
consistent effort and the potential to check
primary playmakers.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Great court vision and passing skill • Footwork on jump shot needs to be
• Quick handle for a creating wing completely rebuilt
• High confidence, plays with a chip on his • Struggles to stay on balance
shoulder • Turnover prone with his risky passing
• Good change of pace and passing show • Adding size would do him well
potential as a PNR ball handler • May struggle to guard quicker guards
• High effort defender, tags well attacking downhill
• Willing to guard anyone in POA • Lacks athletic burst, rim protection
• Potential as secondary creator
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NBA Comparison: Greivis Vasquez, Donte DiVincenzo
 Leandro Bolmaro has potential as a potential as slashing wing with legitimate guard
skills and passing vision. His floor is a high effort defensive player that can add value
on offense with his facilitation. His swing skill is his jumper. His foundation needs
work as he struggles with consistent footwork, especially with his landing. Adding
floor spacing to his game would open up his offense.

Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Sam Merrill, 24 years old, 6’5, Utah State
2. Myles Powell, 23 years old, 6’2, Seton Hall
3. Markus Howard, 21 years old, 5’11, Marquette

Knicks Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Maurice Harkless $11,011,234
II. Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
1. Damyean Dotson $2,023,150
III. Team Option
1. Bobby Portis $15,750,000
2. Theo Pinson $1,701,593
IV. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Taj Gibson $9,450,000
2. Elfrid Payton $8,000,000
3. Wayne Ellington $8,000,000
4. Reggie Bullock $4,200,000
5. Mitchell Robinson $1,663,861
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($894,947)
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 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $53,787,399

Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Maurice Harkless (Projected Mid-Level Exception)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 71.2%]
Maurice Harkless was brought to the Knicks in the trade that sent Marcus Morris to
the LA Clippers. He was started most of his games in LA as the starter (38 starts out of
50 games) and continued in that role with the Knicks (10 starts out of 12 games). On
offense, he was a negative on the perimeter. He was consistently left open and ruined
court spacing in LA and in NY. He is extremely inconsistent as a shooter with two
seasons shooting over 38% from three and four seasons shooting under 30% from
three. He has consistently struggled to shoot with volume, as he has never even
attempted 200 shots from deep. He is a good slasher, shooting 67.7% around the rim
on 47% of his attempts, but that alone does not outweigh his lack of value on the
perimeter. He is a legitimate defensive wing that plays with intensity, but he is not
spectacular by any means. He has had his worst defensive stint in his career during his
12 game Knicks sample. His DBPM dropped below 0.0 for the first time in his career.
He is not a good fit for a roster that needs shooting from its wings.
2. Damyean Dotson (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 84.2%]
Damyean Dotson had a solid 2018-19 season. He had 20 games with at least 15 points
and a few stretches where he got hot, including a six-game stretch in mark where he
averages 20 points per game on 43% from three-point range. The 2019-20 season did
not go as well. He started off the season on the sideline after shoulder surgery. He
struggled to get consistent minutes until a few weeks into the season. He did not show
improvement in any facet of his game, but instead regressed. This may have been due
to the offseason surgery but is 26 years old that should be reaching his peak within the
next year or two. He ended the season in the same position as when it started with 8
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DNPs out of a 9-game span. He is only of the only players left from the Phil Jackson
era. Unlike Frank Ntilikina, he does not have a previous relationship with Leon Rose.
Due to his underperformance, injury concerns, and lack of relationship with the front
office, Dotson should be leaving New York this offseason.
3. Bobby Portis (Team Option $15,750,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 1.4%]
Bobby Portis did not have a great season. He only started 5 games compared to
veteran Taj Gibson getting 56 starts. On offensive, he had poor shot selection. He
settled for a lot of perimeter jumpers (17.1% of 3PTA were open, 24th percentile
amongst bigs) when he was an average shooter from distance at best. Portis was very
poor at finishing around the rim (61.6% at the rim). This is right around league
average, and that does not hold up to the standards of any 6’10 player. On defense, he
is an extremely hard player. He plays with a lot of emotion, but that gets him into
trouble at times. He does not make the right rotations and got out played as a defender.
The Knicks front court is also crowded with players who deserve more minutes than
him as Julius Randle, Taj Gibson, and Mitchell Robinson should all be returning.
Portis is on his way out of New York.
4. Wayne Ellington (Team Option $8,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 8.2%]
Wayne Ellington really struggled for New York. He faced some injuries early in the
season (sore Achilles) and missed 11 games in December. He missed another 20
games on top of that to DNPs. When he was playing, he struggled. He had one of the
worst shooting seasons in his career and his TS% dropped six points just from last
year. He still adds value on that end because teams know that he can space the floor
and he will take any shot he can get from distance. On defense, he was a slight plus
compared to other shooting guards but was not special by any means. Ellington will be
kept around as a trade piece.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Theo Pinson (Team Option $1,701,593)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 63%]
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Theo Pinson had a statistically poor season with the Nets. He shot poorly, could not
finish around the rim, and was an average playmaker at best. He did do a good job of
managing to get downhill when playing on the ball. On defense, he was a plus. He
worked hard, especially in passing lanes (3.5 deflections per 75 possessions, 88th
percentile amongst guards). The Knicks signing him during the summer transaction
period points toward his contract being guaranteed for the 2021 season. He was
publicly touted as a leader and energizer bunny in the Brooklyn locker room. Many of
his teammates said that he kept them together and added to their culture. He can do the
same thing in the new Thibodeau led locker room.
2. Taj Gibson (Non-Guaranteed $9,450,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 1.7%]
Taj Gibson does not add much on-court value currently in his career. He was a
negative in most facets of the game this past season. On offense, he is only good for
scoring on dump offs and cuts to the rim. Defensively, he just has not been there. He
has slowed down a step or two. His contract should be guaranteed for the 2021 season
because Coach Thibodeau is stepping in. He will be a good resource for the younger
Knicks players to go to during a transition year with their new coach.
3. Elfrid Payton (Non-Guaranteed $8,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 70.8%]
Elfrid Payton had an abysmal year shooting the ball. He was efficient inside of 10 feet.
He only took 16.4% of his shots from midrange and was one of the worst floor spacing
guards in the league from deep. On a Knicks team that was notorious for lacking
shooting, he was the biggest culprit. He was a good playmaker but was extremely
passive and never tried to pass his teammates open. He could not use his scoring
gravity to create for others either simply because no defender respected him. He is a
plus perimeter defender and matched up against high usage players frequently. He fits
in as a defensive minded guard with most teams. He may not make the roster with the
Leon Rose led roster favoring Frank Ntilikina and praising Dennis Smith Jr publicly.
The eighth pick could also result in a guard to add to the roster. Payton will be the odd
man out but should be resigned as a trade asset to get more draft capital.
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4. Reggie Bullock (Non-Guaranteed $4,200,000)


[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 44.5%]
Reggie Bullock should have his team option picked up by the Knicks. He started off
his 2019-20 season on reserve due to a back injury that required surgery. He was not
active until January first and struggled when he did finally see playing time. His three-
point shooting is what mainly lagged behind as he three-point percentage dropped 4.4
points. He also took less threes (3PTr fell from 0.66 to 0.50). These are both
concerning considering his role is as a 3&D player. On defense, he showed some value
off the ball. He attacked passing lanes well and made turned errant passes into
advantage opportunities. He added a lot of effort on defense as well as he recovered
87% of loose ball opportunities (96th percentile amongst wings). Even if Bullock is
not resigned for his on-court production, he should be resigned as a legitimate trade
piece to bring in some draft capital.
5. Mitchell Robinson (Non-Guaranteed $1,663,861)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 93.7%]
The Knicks will guarantee Mitchell Robinson’s 2021 contract. He is a top three asset
for the Knicks along with RJ Barrett and the 2020 8th overall pick. He is an elite
finisher around the rim. He shot 77.5% at the rim. 61.6% of his field goal attempts
resulted in dunks (185 dunks). Robinson came into the NBA as an unknown
commodity due to his decision to skip college, but the Knicks landed a solid piece. He
has operated in low usage up to this point in his career but could have some potential
to expand the amount of possessions he gets, namely in the post. He averaged 1.0 PPP
on post ups (74th percentile amongst bigs). A good point guard would pair well with
Mitchell as well because he is an elite vertical threat as a role man. He averaged 1.67
PPP as a roll man (100th percentile amongst bigs). On defense, Robinson is most
notable as a shot blocker. He did not contest a ton of shots (7.1 per 75 possessions,
27th percentile amongst bigs), but he dominated when he did (43% of contests resulted
in blocks, 99th percentile amongst bigs). This is because his basketball IQ is not all the
way there yet and he is just slow to rotate at times. He got attacked in the pick and roll
frequently by teams looking for switches due to his general lack of lateral speed and
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chops on the perimeter. He was a decent defender off the ball on the perimeter, as he
uses his length well to create plays in passing lanes. Robinson is an extremely efficient
rim running big that works well in the pick and roll. He has a future with the Knicks.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Fred VanVleet 6’1 200lbs 26 years old, PG, Current Salary: $9,346,153
Projected Annual Salary: $18,000,000-$25,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 20.9%
Fred VanVleet is a high-volume shooter from behind the arch who shot 44% on catch and shoot
threes. According to Bball Index, his shooting gravity is in the 92nd percentile. He may struggle
as a team’s primary as he is not a high value player in isolations (eFG% of 32.4% in isolations)
and when attacking the rim. Playing him with a solid roll man would allow him to create some in
the pick and roll. VanVleet is an underrated defender, who typically matched up with an
opponent’s primary creator. He matches up surprisingly well against both point and shooting
guards, even though he is undersized at 6’1. He is an active defender in passing lanes, getting 4.2
deflections per 75 possessions, and does a good job of turning those into advantage opportunities
on the other end of the floor.

Option #2:
Bogdan Bogdanovic 6’6 220lbs 28 years old, SF, Current Salary: $8,529,386
Projected Annual Salary: $15,000,000-$20,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Contract: 29.2%
Bogdan Bogdanovic’s archetype is a floor spacing secondary facilitator. He is an underrated
playmaker, averaging 4.2 assists per 36 minutes. He made aggressive passes, refusing to settle
for easy looks at times. Bogdanovic spaces the floor extremely well, with a shooting gravity in
the 91st percentile according to Bball Index. He is adequate at moving off the ball, not providing
much in terms of cutting, but moves around the perimeter well. Defensively, Bogdanovic is
capable, but should not be relied upon to guard the primary wing. He is best at guarding spot up
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shooters and off-ball cutters. He has shown consistent improvement over his first 3 seasons in the
NBA with an increased BPM, VORP, and WS/48 each season.

Option #3:
Justin Holiday 6’6 180lbs 31 years old, SG, Current Salary: $4,767,000
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000-$8,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 50.6%
Just Holiday is a solid low volume two guard. His role offensively is to move off the ball and
gets shots off on the perimeter. Almost 70% of his shots came from three, where he was
extremely efficient. He shot 42.4% from three while being a perimeter focus for defenses. Only
19% of his threes were considered open shots according to Bball Index. He cannot create those
shots for himself but plays well off of a ball dominant guard (97% of his threes were assisted).
Holiday really does not provide much else on the offensive end besides that spacing. He only
takes 2 shots at the rim per 75 possessions and is very passive in his passing. Defensively, he is
very versatile, spending significant time guarding the two through four. He is a very active
perimeter defender that battles every possession. He is a superior interior defender compared to
other guards. This allows his team to make more rotations because the backside can rotate to rim
protection as well. Holiday is a prototypical 3&D player.

Option #4:
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 6’6 232lbs, 27 yrs old, F, Current Salary: $595,122
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 66.7%
Although there is a lack of offensive production and scoring from Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, only
shooting 50% at the rim and 25% from three, he is a fantastic rebounder and gritty defender.
Kidd-Gilchrist ranked in the 82nd percentile amongst wings for putbacks per 75 possessions
(1.1). He also does a great job of playing the Steven Adams role on the defensive glass, focusing
on boxing out so his guards can grab the board and run. He was in the 97th percentile amongst
wings for box outs. He typically plays in off-ball situations, hence why he was such a good rim
protector for an undersized four. He managed to contest 27% of rim attempts when he was on the
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floor, in the 96th percentile for wings. Kidd-Gilchrist played light minutes in his 13 games of the
regular season but did appear in all six of the Mavericks postseason games against the Clippers.
He can add value as a defensive wing.

Option #5:
Carmelo Anthony 6’8 238lbs 36 yrs old, SF/PF, Current Salary: $2,159,029
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 95.4%
With Carmelo Anthony’s return to the NBA after two seasons on the sidelines, the 36-year-old
showed that he still has plenty left in the tank. The future hall of famer averaged a quality 15.4
points and 4.3 rebounds while shooting 43.0% from the field and 38.5% from behind the arc. He
still can score at a very competitive level even with superstars Damian Lillard and C.J.
McCollum commanding most of the offense. Anthony is an all-time great scorer and even at age
36, can immediately come into the Magic offense and bring the scoring needed at the forward
position. One area where he has struggled is scoring in isolation situations. In 7.7 isolation
possessions per 75 possessions (99th percentile amongst wings), he posted an effective field goal
percentage of 42.7% (39th percentile amongst wings). He has shown some real potential as a pick
and pop screener, as he averaged almost two screen assists per 75 possessions. This action also
puts him in great triple threat situations off the catch. Along with his abilities on the court,
Anthony’s experience, leadership, and veteran presence can immensely help an unexperienced
Magic team. Anthony will most likely continue to make the veterans minimum which is needed
for the Magic with the lack of flexibility available on their cap. As great as this could be for the
Magic, being able to lure Anthony away from Portland could be a bit of a challenge. After the
only team willing to give him a chance and their love for him upon arrival, Anthony may have
found a permanent home for himself out West.

Trade Scenarios
1. New Orleans Pelicans
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Pelicans Receiving: Elfrid Payton, 2020 1st Round Pick (8th


overall)
Knicks Receiving: Lonzo Ball, 2020 1st Round Pick (13th overall)
New York receives a new starting point guard with this trade as Lonzo Ball will immediately
step in as the starting one over Dennis Smith Jr and Frank Ntilikina. Elfrid Payton is not a part of
the Knicks plans as he is a complete negative on offense outside of his ability to attack the rim.
Ball is also a plus defender over Payton. The Pelicans get to move up and take a better prospect
at the 8th pick while also allowing New York to move back toward the end of the lottery.

2. Los Angeles Lakers


Lakers Receiving: Reggie Bullock
Knicks Receiving: Quinn Cook, 2024 and 2025 2nd Round Pick
Reggie Bullock will be resigned strictly to be a trade piece to add assets to the team. He is on
very manageable one-year contract that most every team in the league could match. He adds
value to the Lakers as another wing that can play off Lebron James and Anthony Davis. In return
the Knicks receive Quinn Cook, a younger guard that may have potential at the end of their
rotation. They also receive two future second round picks. They are a few years out, so the
Lakers may have lost some muscle by then, conveying into early 30s draft picks after the one and
done rule has been removed.

3. Boston Celtics
Celtics Receiving: Wayne Ellington
Knicks Receiving: Enes Kanter, Vincent Poirier, 2020 1st Round
Pick (30th overall)
In its most basic forms, this trade is a salary dump for the Boston Celtics that allows them to get
under the luxury tax. Boston is also able to clear three roster spots with this trade, allowing them
to use their other first round picks and look into free agency targets. Boston receives Wayne
Ellington in this trade. He is on an unguaranteed $8 million contract, with only $1 million
guaranteed. In return for the salary relief, the New York Knicks receive a late first round pick.
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Neither Enes Kanter nor Vincent Poirier are valuable to a rebuilding Knicks organization. Both
are on expiring contracts.
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OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDER
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
LXIII. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 25 and 29
b. Round 2: Pick 53
LXIV. Team Needs
a. High Ceiling Player
i. Sam Presti has compiled 12 draft picks in the next five years.
With the surprise season and playoff run, this may be a pick to
gain rights to an international player to store away
b. Best Player Available
i. Whoever the front office can get their hands on to craft and
work on development, not necessarily looking for immediate
impact.
LXV. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Thunder Free Agency
XXV. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
a. Which options do we let go
b. Whose options are worth picking up
XXVI. Free Agent Targets
XXVII. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 25 & 29


Choice #1
RJ Hampton 19 yrs old, G, New Zealand
Breakers (NBL)
6’5 188lbs; 6’7 Wingspan
2019-20 (15 games): 8.8 PPG; 3.9 RPG; 2.4 APG; 1.1
STL; 1.5 TO; 40.7% FG; 29.5% 3FG

With a short season due to injuries, RJ


Hampton has fallen from his original
projections, but still is a player that could be
the steal of the draft that teams saw coming out
of high school as a top prospect.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Loves to run in transition • Right hand heavily dominant
• Good athleticism, bounce for alley oops • Unreliable shooter, unable to come off
and transition dunks screen/dribble and consistently knock
• Sneaky speed/quickness, gets off down shots
screens and explodes to the basket • Slow defensively; blow by, low motor
• Good pick and roll ball handler, uses • Slow to see plays develop and read
screens to get position to drive defenses
• Potential as a playmaker on the • Poor footwork on jump shot
defensive end
NBA Comparison: Dante Exum, Michael Carter-Williams
 As one of highest ranked high schoolers, R.J. Hampton did not meet expectations in
the NBL. With a very serious hip flexor injury, Hampton only played 15 professional
games before beginning rehab and training for the NBA draft. Front offices view him
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as a late steal and project to maximize his potential. He showed exception athleticism
when attacking downhill but lacks a lot of the necessary intangibles.

Choice #2
Leandro Bolmaro 20 yrs old, F, FC
Barcelona (Liga ACB)
6’7 200lbs; 6'9” Wingspan
2019-20 (7 games): 4.4 PPG; 1.1 RPG; 1.4 APG; 0.9
STL; 46.4% FG; 50.0% 3FG

Leandro Bolmaro is a draft and stash


secondary creator. He has the skills of a guard
with the size of a lanky wing. His jump shot
will be his swing skill. Defensively, he adds
consistent effort and the potential to check
primary playmakers.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Great court vision and passing skill • Footwork on jump shot needs to be
• Quick handle for a creating wing completely rebuilt
• High confidence, plays with a chip on his • Struggles to stay on balance
shoulder • Turnover prone with his risky passing
• Good change of pace and passing show • Adding size would do him well
potential as a PNR ball handler • May struggle to guard quicker guards
• High effort defender, tags well attacking downhill
• Willing to guard anyone in POA • Lacks athletic burst, rim protection
• Potential as secondary creator

NBA Comparison: Greivis Vasquez, Donte DiVincenzo


 Leandro Bolmaro has potential as a potential as slashing wing with legitimate guard
skills and passing vision. His floor is a high effort defensive player that can add value
on offense with his facilitation. His swing skill is his jumper. His foundation needs
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work as he struggles with consistent footwork, especially with his landing. Adding
floor spacing to his game would open up his offense.

Choice #3
Theo Maledon 19 yrs old, G, ASVEL (LNB)
6’5 180lbs; 6'9” Wingspan
2019-20 (20 games): 6.5 PPG; 1.8 RPG; 3.1 APG; 0.3
STL; 39.0% FG; 29.4% 3FG

Theo Maledon is a combo guard who has slid


down draft boards during the 2020 calender
year. On ball, he operates out of the pick and roll
well. He has a solid, but slow shot release. On
defense, he is limited athletically and struggles
to guard the pick and roll. He is best as an off
ball defender.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Flashes of solid body control and touch • Needs to speed up jumpshot
around the rim • Settles for easy reads in passing situations
• Solid set jump shot w/ good shot • Refrains from attacking the rim with
selection much consistency
• Good footwork, ball fakes, change of • Ball watches a lot on defense
pace • Continuously gets hit by screens and does
• Solid PNR ball handler, controls floor not fight through
well, does not let defense change his pace • Limited to guarding point guards
• Does a good job tagging when off-ball • Plays defense flat-footed

NBA Comparison: Shabazz Napier


 Theo Maledon projects as a secondary playmaker that operates mainly in the pick and
roll as well as catch and shoot situations. He does a good job of controlling the pace
of the game and not doing too much. His jump shot projects to be average at best due
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to a slow release and not much potential to shoot off of the move. On defense, his
ceiling is to be an average defender. He has real struggles when guarding on the ball,
both in point of attack actions and pick and roll sets. His role will most likely be as a
rotational piece off the bench.

Choice #4
Josh Green 19 yrs old, G, Arizona
6’6 209lbs, 6’10 ¼ ” Wingspan
2019-20 (30 games): 12.0 PPG; 4.6 RPG; 2.6 APG; 1.5
STL; 1.6 TO; 42.4% FG; 36.1% 3FG

Josh Green is a slashing wing. He can guard up and


down the lineup to an extent. On offense, he is a
triple threat wing that can attack the rim off two to
three dribbles. There is potential with his jumper.
Defensively, he is threat in passing lanes and
works well with pack line values.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Good frame at 19 years old • Needs to speed up shooting form, work on
• Solid first step when attacking downhill shooting off movement
• Quick decision maker off drives • Good vertical leaper, but
• Decent touch on runner • Very basic handle, passing looks
• Great hips and footwork on defense • Stiff on offense, movement is stagnant
• He is able to guard the 1-3 • Injury history (two shoulder surgeries)
• Makes good rotations in pack line
NBA Comparison: Miles Bridges, Ben McLemore
 Josh Green can step in as a defensive wing. He will be given some tough assignments
in spot minutes due to his ability to guard in space. He may initially struggle to shoot
the NBA three due to his long release and footwork off the move. He needs to attack
downhill off POA actions and get to his floater. He can finish above the rim, but it
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takes him too long to rise up. He may need some time to adjust to the NBA game
before becoming a legitimate piece.

ROUND 2 Pick 53
Choice #1
Killian Tillie Senior. C, Gonzaga
6’10 220lbs; 6’10 Wingspan
2019-20 (24 games): 13.6 PPG; 5.0 RPG; 1.9 APG; 1.0
STL; 53.5% FG; 40.0% 3FG

Killian Tillie is an extremely talented big man


who has faced serious injury concerns. He offers
versatility and the ability to stretch the floor on
offense. Defensively, he is a high IQ player with
solid positioning and good footwork. His outcome
depends mainly on his health.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Good shooting range • Missed 37 college games due to hip, foot,
• Quick decision maker in passing and knee injuries
situations, potential in short roll • Lacks vertical athleticism, will not be a
• Can post up mismatches with good touch rim protector
and footwork • Poor screen setter, slips almost every
• Smart when slipping screens screening action
• High IQ defender • Cannot hedge or drop vs PNR
• Uses length well in passing lanes • Closeouts are inconsistent
• Good positional defender in post
NBA Comparison: Nicolo Melli, Nemanja Bjelica, Max Kleber
 Killian Tillie is a legitimate stretch five. He will step in on offense specifically in pick
and pop actions. Tillie can also be effective in DHOs with effective cutters around
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him. Defensively, he will be competent due to his solid foundation on the positioning
and mental side. His health is going to be his swing skill. His medical records could
dictate his draft stock.

Choice #2
Jay Scrubb 20 yrs old, G, John A. Logan
6’6 200lbs 6’9” wingspan
2019-20 (30 games): 21.9 PPG; 6.8 RPG; 2.7 APG;
1.4 STL; 50.1% FG; 33.3% 3FG

Jay Scrubb is an unproven commodity after


only playing college basketball at the JUCO
level. He is an extremely confident on-ball
scorer first that excels at slashing. He has
tunnel vision and makes soft passes. On
defense, the hope is that his motor picks up.
He offers some playmaking when he tries.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Finishes well at and above the rim • MOTOR is by far the biggest concern,
• Extremely athletic both vertically and both offensively and defensively
laterally • Struggles to shoot with any consistency
• Shoots well off the dribble • Shot selection, blackhole on offense
• Strong handle for a bigger guard • Defensive awareness when making
• Good hips when guarding POA rotations or playing help side
• Can create shot at will • Soft skills, work ethic is suspect

NBA Comparison: Shabazz Muhammad, Dion Waiters


 Jay Scrubb is a high upside prospect with an extremely low floor. He can get to the
rim and score with the best of them. He does a good job of drawing fouls there as
well. None of that really matters if he does not try to be a better player. He needs to
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show effort on defense and when he is playing off the ball. If his motor improves, he
is a steal in the second round. If not, he will be out of the league after his rookie
contract.

Choice #3
Abdoulaye N’Doye 22 yrs old, G, AS Monaco
(LNB)
6’7 205lbs; 7’2” Wingspan
2019-20 (25 games): 10.1 PPG; 4.2 RPG; 4.0 APG; 2.0 TOV,
1.3 STL; 52.3% FG; 44.1% 3FG

Abdoulaye N’Doye will be a draft and stash


candidate as he just signed a contract with AS
Monaco. N’Doye has great physical tools. He uses
these tools well to get off whatever shot he wants on
offense and to contest shots on defense.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Good ball handler in PNR • May struggle to get downhill when
• Solid passer (2:1 AST:TO) quicker bigs switch onto him
• Great physical tools at the guard spot • Not an explosive in game athlete
• Good touch on runners, can get that shot • Low volume shooter
off whenever he wants • Not necessarily a primary facilitator
• Very comfortable shooting from three, • Needs to add strength and fill out frame
can shoot over guards • Smaller guards get downhill on him
• Can guard one through three • Crowds ball at times instead of using
• Hustles on defense length

NBA Comparison: Dejounte Murray, Shaun Livingston


 Abdoulaye N’Doye is a versatile secondary playmaker. Considering he just signed a
contract, he could be a draft and stash candidate for a year or could be bought out of
his contract. N’Doye projects as a good end of rotation piece due to his excellent
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length and size. He may struggle to create his own shot at some level. His initial
impact will most likely be on the defensive end.

Undrafted Free Agent Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Paul Eboua, 20 years old, 6’8, Victoria Libertas Pesaro
2. Malik Fitts, 23 years old, 6’8, Saint Mary’s College
3. Josh Hall, 20 years old, 6’9, Moravian Prep

Thunder Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Danilo Gallinari $33,923,339
2. Andre Roberson $16,111,110
3. Nerlens Noel $1,737,274
II. Team Option
1. Abdel Nader $1,752,950
2. Deonte Burton $1,663,861
3. Hamidou Diallo $1,663,861
III. Player Option
1. Mike Muscala $2,283,034
IV. Dead Cap
1. Kyle Singler $999,200
2. Patrick Patterson $737,067
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($5,580,330)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $11,570,204
Who stays, Who goes
▪ Players to part ways with:
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1. Danilo Gallinari (Projected $20,000,000-$25,000,000)


[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 26.1%]
Danilo Gallinari was an integral part of the Thunder’s postseason run this season.
Gallinari produced another fantastic offensive season with 18.7 PPG, 43.8% FG,
40.5% 3FG, and 54.7% EFG. Gallinari adds value to a roster as an off-ball shooter and
as an isolation scorer. With Oklahoma City moving on from Billy Donovan and
looking to add more young talent, the 32-year-old will be heading elsewhere with
another big payday most likely coming his way.
2. Andre Roberson (Projected $5,000,000-$8,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 13.5%]
As Oklahoma City kept Andre Roberson apart of the team over the course of his 2
yearlong injury recovery, with his contract expiration here it looks as if his time as a
member of the Thunder is over. Although Roberson was able to return during the
resumption of the season in the bubble, as the Thunder begin to revamp their roster
Roberson does not look to fit their future plans.
3. Nerlens Noel (Projected $5,000,000-$10,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 48.4%]
The defensive big man had a very impactful season for the Thunder this past year and
was a key component of their surprise season. Known for his defensive presence in the
paint Nerlens Noel had a very solid offensive year as well. Although he only attempted
4.4 FG a game, he was able to average 7.4 PPG on 68.4% FG while averaging 4.9
RPG and 1.5 BLK. In 18 minutes per game he showed great energy and production
that could earn him a larger pay day this offseason away from Oklahoma City.
4. Deonte Burton (Team Option $1,663,861)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 19%]
With the consistent and breakout play of Luguentz Dort in the bubble as well as the
prediction of bringing back Abdel Nader and Hamidou Diallo, Deonte Burton looks to
be the odd man out. In his two seasons in the NBA, Burton has had very little impact
on the court. With career averages of 2.6 PPG, 36.7% FG, 22.5% 3FG, 41.1% EFG
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and 61.5% FT the Thunder shooting guard has not proven that he can be a quality role
player where others have taken their opportunities and left Burton in the shadows.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Abdel Nader (Team Option $1,752,950)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 20.4%]
In his second season with OKC, Abdel Nader took another step in being a quality role
player they can rely on off the bench. Nader increased all his offensive numbers this
season with the Thunder being able to trust him and rely on him more this season.
With seeing the growth of Nader in two seasons the 27-year-old could continue to
provide value for a new look Oklahoma City team and his worth picking up his team
option right under $2 million for this upcoming year.
2. Hamidou Diallo (Team Option $1,663,861)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 65.1%]
The former slam dunk champion took steps of progression this past year for the
Thunder. Seeing his minutes increase from 10 to 20 per game this season, Hamidou
Diallo was able to show more of what he is capable of. Averaging nearly 7.0 PPG on
44.6% from the field, Diallo also increased his 3FG% from 16.7% to 28.1% and pulled
down 3.6 RPG. He may not be a stat sheet stuffer, but Diallo has showed his
development and should be a part of where the Thunder’s future is heading.
3. Mike Muscala (Player Option $2,283,034)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 61.7%]
Mike Muscala has continued to serve as valuable stretch big in the league. With the
projected loss of Danilo Gallinari, Muscala will continue to see his minutes on this
Thunder team increase. Shooting 35.8% from the three-point line this past season
Muscala serves as a role player for this Thunder team. With an a player option expect
him to take that into next season with Oklahoma City.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
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Harry Giles 6’10 240lbs, 22 years old, PF/C, Current Salary: $2,578,800
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 64.9%
With only two years in the league, we have only seen a small sample size of what Harry Giles
has to offer at the professional level. Coming out of high school as the #1 recruit in the class of
2016, Giles was viewed as a highly talented power forward. After tearing his ACL for the second
time in his life, Giles missed most of his collegiate time at Duke. Although he declared after not
playing, he was still viewed with the potential of his former #1 status. Things never really
panned out Sacramento with the two sides never fully meshing. Giles averaged just 14 minutes
per game, 7.0 PPG, and 4.0 RPG. Although his production does not seem like much, he is still 21
years old with plenty of upside.

Option #2:
De’Anthony Melton 6’2 200lbs 22 years old, PG, Current Salary: $1,416,852
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 93.1%
In two seasons on two separate teams, De’Anthony Melton has been a very quality role player.
At only 22 years old, he has become consistent with about 20 minutes per game with a strong
defensive IQ. Melton posted a respectable 105.0 defensive rating this past season. He had nearly
a 2.0 to 1.0 assist to turnover ratio and three assists per game. He is an aggressive passer that
seeks out passes to shooters and cutters. Melton must show improvement in the shooting respects
with a 28.6% 3FG last season. He needs to improve specifically off the dribble as he shot 17.6%
from three on pull up attempts, while shooting 38.3% on catch and shoot attempts. Defensively,
he is immaculate in passing lanes as he averaged 4.4 deflections per 75 possessions, in the 98th
percentile amongst guards. Being a projected minimum Melton could come in and be a great
rotational backup point guard for the team able to sign him.

Option #3:
Emmanuel Mudiay 6’4 235lbs 24 years old, PG, Current Salary: $1,620,564
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Projected Annual Salary: Minimum


Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 69.6%
Jeff Green is a solid veteran presence who provides excellent value for a minimum contract. He
really showed what he can contribute once he got traded to Houston and started receiving
minutes at the five spot. He has shown some streaky shooting in the past, but really took control
in their bubble playoff run. He shot 42.6% from three on 54 attempts. Green has consistently
shown an ability to step up in the playoffs throughout his career (51.9% conversion on corner
threes in the playoffs vs 38.5% conversion rate during the regular season, an increase of
+13.4%). Green is also good at moving and cutting off the ball, being in the 90th percentile in
Bball Index’s stats regarding off-ball cuts. On the defensive side of the ball, Green was a force in
the playoffs. When guarding isolations, he gave up 0.73 PPP on a FG% of 36% according to
Stats.NBA. He showed versatility during the regular season as well, guarding every position for
at least 13% of his defensive possessions. Green has carved out a new role with Houston as a
legitimate small ball five. This role could translate to a multitude of playoff contenders.

Option 4:
Semi Ojeleye 6’6 240lbs 25 years old, F, Current Salary: $1,618,520
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 1.6%
Semi Ojeleye has proved himself to be a versatile defender and floor spacer. Offensively,
Ojeleye turned in the best season of his career, posting career highs in effective field goal
percentage and shooting 46.2% on attempts from the corner three. Ojeleye’s frame has allowed
him to be a plus screener in the Boston offense and if he continues to develop his shot, he could
be a reliable pick and popper. At 240 pounds, Ojeleye can bump with most big men on the block,
but his feet are what allows him to guard on the perimeter.

Option #5:
Dwayne Bacon 6’6 220lbs 25 years old, SG, Current Salary: $1,618,520
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
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Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 67.1%


Dwayne Bacon is a project player that could eventually add value at the end of a rotation.
Offensively his role has been to score in isolation in spot minutes. He is extremely poor at this
aspect, with an eFG% of 38.5% and TO% of 13%, good for the 19th and 15th percentile
respectively. He would benefit from playing off a ball-dominant playmaker. He is a decent three-
point shooter off of the catch and finishes well around the rim. His athleticism helps him get
whatever shot he wants around the rim and portrays solid touch on his floater. He is not a
complete liability as a playmaker, showing the skills necessary when looking for the pass.
Defensively, he is an above average perimeter player. He does a decent job at guarding wings at
the point of attack. When locked in, he closes out well and forces the action. A lot of concern
about Bacon stems from his off the court activity and his mentality. He could be an average 3&D
player off the bench if he stays locked in.

Trade Scenarios
1. Boston Celtics
Celtics Receiving: Luguentz Dort
Thunder Receiving: Vincent Poirier, 2020 1st Round Pick (26th
overall), 2020 1st Round Pick (30th overall)
This deal allows Oklahoma City General Manager, Sam Presti, to cash in on an asset at peak
value. In the 2019-20 playoffs, Luguentz Dort provided elite man to man perimeter defense
against James Harden over the course of a seven-game series. His wide frame allows him to wall
up effectively on would be drives, and his quick feet give him opportunity to keep elite guards in
front. For Boston, Dort would add to an already elite Boston defense that ranked fourth in
defensive rating last season (107.8). One last note for Boston is that Dort is under team control
until the 2022-23 season, invaluable for a team expected to be over the tax line for the
foreseeable future. For Oklahoma City, this deal would be great because it enables them to add
two young players to a team that figures to undergo some sort of rebuild soon.

2. New York Knicks


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Knicks Receiving: Chris Paul, 2025 1st Round Pick Swap (worse
of the two)
Thunder Receiving: Julius Randle, Wayne Ellington, 2020 1st
Round Pick (8th overall), 2022 1st Round Pick, 2025 1st Round Pick
Swap (better of the two)

In this trade, the New York Knicks make a move toward playoff contention with introduction of
All-Star point guard, Chris Paul. On top of adding high level play, he may be able to mentor
Dennis Smith Jr to some degree. Mitchell Robinson would benefit greatly from Paul's ability to
throw lobs off the pick and roll. The Oklahoma City Thunder take in flexible, expiring contracts
on top of three first round picks. Wayne Ellington and Elfrid Payton are both on unguaranteed
contracts at $8 million apiece. Julius Randle is only fully guaranteed for the 2020-21 season. For
the 2021-22 season, $4 million is guaranteed. If he is not a trade asset, Sam Presti should have no
issue waiving Randle and eating the dead cap. With the eighth overall pick, the Thunder can
target the best player available. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the only player on the roster who is
irreplaceable.
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ORLANDO MAGIC
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
LXVI. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 15
b. Round 2: Pick 45
LXVII. Team Needs
a. Best available guards (with both picks) with the ability to create and
score
i. Chuma debuting, Vuceivc and Bamba solidified, Carter-
Williams and Augustin on their way out, finding a high-level
scorer at the guard level is a must. A crowded frontcourt
already demands more depth in backcourt even with the belief
and trust of Markelle Fultz
LXVIII. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Magic Free Agency
XXVIII. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XXIX. Free Agent Targets
XXX. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 15
Choice #1
Kira Lewis Jr 20 yrs old, G, Alabama
6’3 165lb; 6’6” Wingspan
2019-20: 18.5 PPG; 4.8 RPG; 5.2 APG; 1.8
STL; 3.5 TO; 45.9% FG; 36.6% 3FG

Kira Lewis has been a great two-year


starter for Alabama competing in the
SEC. Seeing his growth over this past
season and his progression in his second
year of starting every game for Alabama.
This improvement is only scratching the
surface for this quick, shifty guard.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Lightning speed, extremely quick in • Court awareness and vision needs to
blowing by defenders improve
• Driver, puts head down, crafty/creative • Can tend to rely on speed and quickness
finisher to help him recover defensively
• Good off ball player, knows to create • Needs to add weight and strength to his
space frame
• Quality shooter off the dribble • Tends to force passes into traffic
• Good on and off ball defender • Improving confidence rising and
shooting on pick and roll
NBA Comparison: De’Aaron Fox, Dennis Schröder,
 Kira Lewis Jr. has shown a great amount of improvement from Freshman to
Sophomore year, only touching the surface of his potential. With his improvement in
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all major areas, Lewis has shown his potential to be another electric speedster in the
NBA.

Choice #2
Cole Anthony 20 yrs old, G, North Carolina
6’3 190lbs; 6’4 ½ Wingspan
2019-20: 18.5 PPG; 5.7 RPG; 4.0 APG; 1.3 STL; 3.5 TO;
38.0% FG; 34.8% 3FG

Cole Anthony is a score first guard. He can get his


shot up from anywhere. He is an average defender
but faces injury concerns. He did not live up to
expectations at UNC.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Shot creator, can always get shot up • Shot selection, shoots just to shoot, over-
• Never lacking confidence confident/cocky
• Uses footwork well in triple threat actions • Predictable with moves
as well as off the dribble • Needs to become a more dynamic
• Creative finisher around the rim, draws playmaker
fouls well • Very short wingspan and limits ability to
• High athleticism and explosiveness be effective in passing lanes and on
• Looks to be locked in defensively and defensive switches
completely capable to defend top guards • Durability/injury concerns
NBA Comparison: Austin Rivers, Jamal Murray, Jordan Clarkson
 Anthony has shown his electric play and explosiveness in spirts. Where he struggles
is his ability to stay locked in and his shot selection. His injuries throughout his career
also raise eyebrows for front offices, but all in all his raw scoring ability will allow
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him to have a place in this league. His ability to drive, create shots for himself, and
use his body to drive and create contact can immensely help an NBA team.

Choice #3
Tyrell Terry 20 yrs old, G, Stanford
6’2 160lbs; N/A Wingspan
2019-20: 14.6 PPG; 4.5 RPG; 3.2 APG; 1.4
STL; 2.6 TO; 44.1% FG; 40.8% 3FG

Tyrell Terry is a threat to shoot from


anywhere. The small guard from
Stanford showed creativity in both his
shooting and when finishing in tough
situations around the rim.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Automatic scorer, limitless range; has a • Physical intangibles; extremely
natural feel to shoot undersized small guard
• Pull up transition 3’s, great footwork • NEEDS to add weight
• Great coming on off ball screens, drifts • Has not developed mid-range game, 15-
to the corner to get to his spot 18 ft. pull up
• Can score down low with creativity • Can improve ball handling
• Great at running in transition • Knows weak spot is defense
• High basketball IQ • Develop a better passing game

NBA Comparison: CJ McCollum, Seth Curry, Trae Young


 Tyrell Terry has obviously shown he can score at will. His jump shooting ability and
ability to knock down 3’s both off the dribble and pull up in transition is elite. His
lack of height and skinny frame are big issues that rear their ugly heads on the
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defensive end of the floor. He shows high value defensive positioning at times, but
physically cannot compete on that end of the floor.

ROUND 2 PICK 45
Choice #1
Devon Dotson 21 yrs old, G, Kansas
6’2 185lbs; 6’3¼ Wingspan
2019-20: 18.1 PPG; 3.5 RPG; 4.0 APG; 2.1
STL; 2.4 TO; 46.8% FG; 30.9% 3FG

Devon Dotson is another impressive


guard coming out of the Bill Self group
in Kansas. Dotson showed an
impressive ability to get downhill and
finish well around the rim for a smaller
guard.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Electric speed, able to blow by defenders • Small frame, needs to add strength
using change of speed • Needs to work on outside shot, regressed in
• Very smart and smooth ball handler, has 3pt% from fr to sop year (36.3% to 30.9%)
the craftiness of your typical NBA ball • Needs to develop more of a playmaking
handler prowess
• Even with smaller frame, finishes well • Needs to develop more ball handling
• Consistent, started 66 consecutive games at moves
34 MPG • Has to add mid-range to offensive game,
• Moves well laterally on defense be a complete scorer
• Reads passing lanes and translates to points
NBA Comparison: Frank Mason, Cory Joseph
 Devon Dotson returned after a very impressive freshman and continued to show
improvement in his game throughout his sophomore year. He was one of the best
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guards in the country at finishing around the rim. He showed a lot of poise for an
underclassman.

Choice #2
Payton Pritchard 22 yrs old, G,
Oregon
6’2 206lbs; 6’4½ Wingspan
2019-20: 20.5 PPG; 4.3 RPG; 5.5 APG; 1.5
STL; 2.7 TO; 46.8% FG; 41.5% 3FG

Payton Pritchard is a 4-year player who


took massive leaps and truly took the
reins of the offense on all levels. His
leadership and energy make him an
NBA ready guard ready to make an
impact upon arrival in the league.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Competitor/leader on the floor • Lacks physical intangibles
• 3 level scorer with shooting range out to • Inconsistent mid-range game, may
30 feet struggle to get downhill in NBA
• Great ball-handler/playmaker, • On-ball creator, doesn’t add much
especially in the pick and roll off-ball, traditional point guard
• Locks in defensively and is able to be a • Can be a streaky shooter, forces
pest/frustrate ball handlers shots
• High IQ; good communication amongst • Not huge potential for growth, 4-
teammates year player, 22 years old
NBA Comparison: T.J. McConnell, Jalen Brunson, Carlos Arroyo
 Prichard has continuously showed his ability to command a team and elevate his play
year after year. Coming into the draft with a bit of experience, he is a player that can
come into a team and add value in a role off the bench. He is a shot creator with NBA
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level shooting range that can create for others out of the pick and roll. There will not
be much of a learning curve for him.

Choice #3
Malachi Flynn, 22 yrs old, PG, San
Diego State
6’2 185lbs; 6’3” Wingspan
2019-20: 17.6 PPG; 4.5 RPG; 5.1 APG; 1.8
STL; 1.8 TO; 44.1% FG; 37.3% 3FG

Malachi Flynn has shown an ability to


guard that could net him immediate
playing time in the league. He has shown
legitimate scoring prowess as well from
multiple levels.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Pick and roll maestro, great at reading • Small frame, needs to add size
defensive coverages • Needs to develop a better paint game off
• Variety of ways to score, uses pull up as pick and roll
well as coming off the dribble, able to play • Guarding bigger guards
off the ball and relocate to get open spot • Not an elite athlete; doesn’t have quick
up shots off dribble penetration; limitless enough burst to blow by defenders
range, never shy’s away from deep 3’s • Little room for growth/development
• Good ball handler
• Active and alert defender
NBA Comparison: Fred Van Fleet, Tyus Jones
 Malachi Flynn has had a very solid college career. His ability to run the pick and roll
and shoot the 3 have been highly impressive during his tenure in college. Where he as
well lacks in physical attributes his skills have been able to carry him along to reach
this point of making it to the next level. Whether teams view him as a guy capable of
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playing the 1 or 2 at the NBA level remains up in the air. He is a versatile scorer, that
may struggle to create space against top tier defenders.

Undrafted Free Agent Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Myles Powell, 23 years old, 6’2, Seton Hall
2. Kahlil Whitney, 19 years old, 6’7, Kentucky
3. Trent Forrest 22 years old, 6’4, Florida State

Magic Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. D.J. Augustin $7,250,000
2. Michael Carter-Williams $2,028,594
II. Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
1. Wesley Iwundu $2,023,150.00
2. Gary Clark $1,937,274
III. Player Option
1. Evan Fournier $17,000,000
2. James Ennis $2,130,023
IV. Team Option
1. Melvin Frazier $1,663,861.00
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($5,852,178)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $15,236,260

Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
1. D.J. Augustin (Projected Mid-Level Exception)
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[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 69.2%]


D.J. Augustin was a pleasant surprise for the Magic since signing a 4-year deal in
2016. Over the past 3 seasons, Augustin has been able to average double digit points
and four assists. His FG% from both inside and outside the arc have sat below 42% FG
and 38% 3FG. With the trade for and then extension of Markelle Fultz, along with all
signs pointing to the Magic drafting guards with both their first and second round pick
Augustin’s time with the Magic looks all but over. At age 33, it makes sense for the
Magic to work on building something new with younger and higher potential talent.
2. Michael Carter-Williams (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 73.9%]
Similar to DJ Augustin, Michael Carter-Williams came in and made some noise to
help the Magic these past two seasons. After beginning his tenure with the Magic on a
10-day contract, Carter-Williams was able to earn a contract through the rest of the
2018-19 season, then returned to Orlando on a one-year deal. Carter-Williams was a
consistent role player over the past two seasons averaging around 18 minutes a game,
seven points and three assists. A lot of his value comes from his ability to guard the
perimeter. He uses his length well in passing lanes and he averaged 3.3 deflections per
75 possessions, in the 83rd percentile amongst guards. When guarding the pick and
roll, he allowed 0.81 PPP, in the 70th percentile. Although Carter-Williams’ salary
would not be hard to match with a very minimal free agent market for the point guard,
his lack of ability to shoot the three (26.6%) and the looks for the team to be drafting
two guards in this year’s draft, bringing back Carter-Williams is not much of a fit for
an Orlando team looking to grow their team for the future.
3. Melvin Frazier (Team Option $1,663,861)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 14.7%]
After being drafted in 2018, the Magic have yet to see anything from Melvin Frazier.
Drafted early in the second round, (35th overall) the project from Tulane has been
nothing but disappointing. Injuries affecting him year after year. When he was on the
court, he has not produced anything that Magic had hoped when drafting him. After
playing only 29 games in his two seasons in Orlando, Frazier has yet to develop or
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progress his game in any way at the professional level. With a small sample size, it is
time for the Magic to let him walk.
4. Wesley Iwundu (Projected $2,000,000-$4,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 49.8%]
The 33rd overall pick in the 2017 draft has never truly come into form in what the
Magic had hoped when trading up to draft him. From his short stint in the G-League
(35 minutes per game, 40.5% FG, 12.5% 3FG, 15.2 points) and his tenure in the NBA
(career 4.8 points, 41.8% FG, 31.9% 3FG) his production and talent has yet to
breakthrough. With the injuries to Jonathan Isaac and Aaron Gordon, the Magic ended
up relying on James Ennis and Gary Clark much more than Iwundu. There is an
apparent of lack of trust from the coaching staff in him to carry the load as they made
their way into the playoffs a bit depleted. With that being shown, it makes sense that
this could be the end for the 6’6 forward from Kansas State. Nearing the age of 26, the
hope was the maturity and experience of Iwundu could help him come in and make an
impact on this roster which sadly has been far from the case.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Gary Clark (Projected $3,000,000-$6,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 1%]
Since Clark’s arrival from Houston, he has been a pleasant surprise to the Magic
team. He played in 24 regular season games, but the most impressive part to Clark’s
stint was his performance in the playoffs. With the injuries to Jonathan Isaac and
Aaron Gordon, and a game three ejection from James Ennis, Gary Clark was asked to
take a big step on a new team in his young career. He started all five postseason games
averaging a respectable 7.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, and even shooting 34.4% from the 3-
point line. Although Clark is an undersized forward and too slow to play the small
forward, he has shown to be an asset when he is on the floor. Keeping Clark on to
provide valuable minutes in the new season at a $1,937,274 qualifying offer makes
sense for the Orlando Magic.
2. Evan Fournier (Player Option $17,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 43.9%]
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The Magic are not the ones able to make this decision, but every indication is Evan
Fournier will be back again with the Magic for another season. With a $17,000,000
option, Fournier does not seem to be in the position to test the free agent market where
he is unlikely to get close to the same amount. The 6’7 Frenchman will be in the last
year of his 5-year contract with the Magic. The 2019-20 season was the best of
Fournier’s career where he had a career high in points per game (18.5), second best in
FG% (46.7), and third in 3FG% (39.9). He was an exceptional shooter, as he shot
43.6% from three off the catch (84th percentile amongst guards), while only have
17.7% of his threes considered open. He fits in well to most any offense as he can
operate in the half court as an off-ball threat. 30% of his half-court offense came
through screening actions, in the 92nd percentile amongst guards. Fournier is a
consistent player where night in and night out. Orlando knows what they are going to
get from him.
3. James Ennis (Player Option $2,130,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 74.1%]
After adding James Ennis to the mix at the trade deadline, the Magic needed to fill the
void at small forward with little production from Wesley Iwundu and Jonathan Isaac
being on the inactive list. Ennis came in and did his job mostly on the defensive end.
He started nearly every game in Orlando up his arrival, but still does not add much
valuable offense to the Magic. Shooting 45.1% from the field and 28.6% from three,
he averaged 8.5 points and 4.8 rebounds. Although his presence on the offensive end is
minimal, it was very evident the coaching staff trusted Ennis at the starting small
forward position more than Iwundu. A lot of his value came from doing the dirty work
and cleaning up the glass. He averaged 2.1 offensive rebounds per 75 possessions, in
the 84th percentile amongst wings. On defense, he was matched up against ball
handlers more often than forwards, as he guarded primary and secondary creators for
40.8% of his defensive possessions. With the unfortunate injury to Jonathan Isaac,
Ennis will pick up his player option for $2,130,023 and return as the starting small
forward for the Magic next season.
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Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Carmelo Anthony 6’8 238lbs 36 years old, SF/PF, Current Salary: $2,159,029
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 95.4%
With Carmelo Anthony’s return to the NBA after two seasons on the sidelines, the 36-year-old
showed that he still has plenty left in the tank. The future hall of famer averaged a quality 15.4
points and 4.3 rebounds while shooting 43.0% from the field and 38.5% from behind the arc. He
still can score at a very competitive level even with superstars Damian Lillard and C.J.
McCollum commanding most of the offense. Anthony is an all-time great scorer and even at age
36, can immediately come into the Magic offense and bring the scoring needed at the forward
position. One area where he has struggled is scoring in isolation situations. In 7.7 isolation
possessions per 75 possessions (99th percentile amongst wings), he posted an effective field goal
percentage of 42.7% (39th percentile amongst wings). He has shown some real potential as a pick
and pop screener, as he averaged almost two screen assists per 75 possessions. This action also
puts him in great triple threat situations off the catch. Along with his abilities on the court,
Anthony’s experience, leadership, and veteran presence can immensely help an unexperienced
Magic team. Anthony will most likely continue to make the veterans minimum which is needed
for the Magic with the lack of flexibility available on their cap. As great as this could be for the
Magic, being able to lure Anthony away from Portland could be a bit of a challenge. After the
only team willing to give him a chance and their love for him upon arrival, Anthony may have
found a permanent home for himself out West.

Option #2:
Jeff Teague 6’3 195lbs, 32 years old, G, Current Salary: $19,000,000
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000-$8,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 36.5%
Jeff Teague, now 32 years old, has transitioned to the second half of his career. A former all-star,
Teague is now a reliable backup point guard that can create some offense for himself. He was an
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average player on offense. He did not take many threes (0.18 3PTr), instead opting to attack the
basket. On defense, Teague really struggled. According to PIPM, RPM, RAPTOR, and BPM,
Teague was in the 15th percentile amongst point guards at best. He has lost a step on the
defensive end of the floor and cannot compete on that end of the floor anymore.

Option #3:
Bryn Forbes 6’2 205lbs, 27 years old, G, Current Salary: $2,875,000
Projected Annual Salary: $4,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 27.9%
It was another solid season for Forbes in his second year as a starter. Forbes had an effective
field goal percentage of 54.4 percent this season, and that rose to 57 percent off screening
actions. He is aggressive when looking for his shot in these situations. He uses solid footwork to
rotate his body toward the rim and get good looks from three. Outside of his shooting, Forbes
does not add much value. He was involved in 0.1 isolation actions per 75 possessions for a team
that was isolation heavy in the midrange. On defense, Forbes struggles to compete. At 6-feet-2-
inches tall with a 6-foot-5-inch wingspan, he is a high effort defender, as shown by his
propensity for diving for loose balls. He recovered 76 percent of loose balls, good for the 84th
percentile amongst guards. He struggled to guard the PnR (pick and roll) as he gave up 0.95 PPP
(points per possessions) when guarding ball handlers. He was scored against in 43.9 percent of
PnR actions according to NBA Stats. Forbes has become a valuable role player. If Forbes
remains on the Spurs, he will most likely be a coming off the bench next season.

Option #4:
Treveon Graham 6’5 220lbs, 27 years old, SF, Current Salary: $1,645,357
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 28.1%
Treveon Graham struggled to get legitimate rotation minutes since he was traded to the hawks
alongside Jeff Teague. He was relegated to mainly garbage time minutes. He shot 35.1% from
three in a very small sample size. When adding in his three-point shots from Minnesota, he shot
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27.5% from three. At this point he is an offensive liability considering more than half his shots
came from three-point range. Almost a third of his threes were left wide open due to his
reputation as a nonshooter (97th percentile amongst guards). On defense, he is a good hustle
player with a high motor, but he is does not necessarily show the capability to be a major plus on
that end by any means. His shooting is the swing skill that will keep him on a roster, but he has
not stuck yet while being four years into his career. Atlanta will look at different options at the
backup two spot.

Option #5:
Brad Wanamaker 6’1 200lbs 25 years old, PG/SG, Current Salary: $1,416,852
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 78.3%
Brad Wanamaker is a solid backup point guard that can captain most teams bench units. The 31-
year-old backup point guard provides any team with a steady ball handler for their bench unit
and a close to automatic free shooter, where he led the league with a 92.7% free throw
percentage. Wanamaker is not great on either side of the ball but does most things at an average
rate and that is something contending teams can value. In short, he is a game manager.

Trade Scenarios
1. New Orleans Pelicans
Pelicans Receiving: Al-Farouq Aminu, Evan Fournier, 2022 1st
Round Pick Swap (better of the two)
Magic Receiving: Jrue Holiday, 2020 1st Round Pick Swap (worse
of the two)
For the Orlando Magic, this trade immediately makes them a better team and an eastern
conference contender for a top five seed. Jrue Holiday can be inserted as a primary creator for a
roster that has lacked that from the guard position. He would work well with Nikola Vucevic in
the pick and roll and in handoffs. For the New Orleans Pelicans, they take on a salary filler in Al-
Farouq Aminu, a one-year flyer in Evan Fournier, the 15th pick in the 2020 draft, and a 2022 pick
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swap. Fournier may add value on his contract because New Orleans needs floor spacing. The
draft capital is the real center piece of the haul being sent to New Orleans.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves
Timberwolves Receiving: Al-Farouq Aminu, Evan Fournier
Magic Receiving: James Johnson, Jake Layman, Jarrett Culver
This trade allows the Orlando Magic to move off a bad contract in Al-Farouq Aminu and deal an
expiring contract for a young 3&D wing. Although Evan Fournier has been solid for Orlando, it
may be better to transition to a youth movement around Nikola Vucevic. Jarrett Culver may need
another year or two of development, but he fits the timeline of Mo Bamba and Jonathan Isaac.
Minnesota may be willing to part ways with him in order to compete now in the western
conference after the addition of D’Angelo Russell in the backcourt. Evan Fournier is a starting
caliber wing next to Russell and will do wonders for their floor spacing. James Johnson and Jake
Layman are both salary filler in this trade to facilitate the financial aspect.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves
Spurs Receiving: Aaron Gordon, Terrance Ross, 2022 1st Round
Pick Swap (better of the two)
Magic Receiving: DeMar DeRozan, Derrick White, 2022 1st
Round Pick Swap (worst of the two)
In this trade, the Orlando Magic look to add more perimeter shot creation and building upon the
playoff appearances from the past two seasons. For Terrance Ross, 62.8% of his two-point
attempts were assisted. Comparing that to DeMar DeRozan, only 27% of his two-point attempts
were assisted. He does not need a playmaker in the point guard to help him get shots. Derrick
White is a solid point of attack defender that will compete with Markelle Fultz for minutes at the
point guard spot. For the San Antonio Spurs, Aaron Gordon is a great fit for a guard heavy
roster. Assuming LaMarcus Aldridge gets traded as well, he would be a solid replacement.
Terrance Ross is a very flippable piece that could be sent to a contender. They also receive the
rights to swap 2022 first round picks with the Orlando Magic.
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PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
LXIX. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 21
b. Round 2: Picks 34, 36, 49 and 58
LXX. Team Needs
a. Shooting
i. The 2019-20 76ers were one of the most disappointing teams in
the league. Much of this disappointment came from their
inability to space the floor. This offseason, acquiring more
shooting needs to be at the top of newly hired Daryl Morey’s
checklist.
b. Backup Guard
i. The 76ers offense particularly was underwhelming when they
had to play their reserves. Philadelphia had to resort to Raul
Neto at the backup point guard spot for much of the season and
his shortcomings were put on display in the bubble when star
Ben Simmons went down with injury. Securing a veteran point
guard would elevate the play of this team’s bench unit
immediately.
LXXI. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 76ers Free Agency
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XX. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XXI. Free Agent Targets
XXII. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 21
Choice #1
Cole Anthony 20 yrs old, G, North
Carolina
6’3 190lbs; 6’4 ½ Wingspan
2019-20: 18.5 PPG; 5.7 RPG; 4.0 APG; 1.3
STL; 3.5 TO; 38.0% FG; 34.8% 3FG

Cole Anthony is a score first guard.


He can get his shot up from anywhere.
He is an average defender but faces
injury concerns. He did not live up to
expectations at UNC.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Shot creator, can always get shot up • Shot selection, shoots just to shoot, over-
• Never lacking confidence confident/cocky
• Uses footwork well in triple threat actions • Predictable with moves
as well as off the dribble • Needs to become a more dynamic
• Creative finisher around the rim, draws playmaker
fouls well • Very short wingspan and limits ability to
• High athleticism and explosiveness be effective in passing lanes and on
• Looks to be locked in defensively and defensive switches
completely capable to defend top guards • Durability/injury concerns
NBA Comparison: Austin Rivers, Jamal Murray, Jordan Clarkson
 Anthony has shown his electric play and explosiveness in spirts. Where he struggles
is his ability to stay locked in and his shot selection. His injuries throughout his career
also raise eyebrows for front offices, but all in all his raw scoring ability will allow
him to have a place in this league. His ability to drive, create shots for himself, and
use his body to drive and create contact can immensely help an NBA team.
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Choice #2
Tyrell Terry 19 yrs old, G, Stanford
6’2 160lbs; N/A Wingspan
2019-20: 14.6 PPG; 4.5 RPG; 3.2 APG; 1.4
STL; 2.6 TO; 44.1% FG; 40.8% 3FG

Tyrell Terry is a threat to shoot from


anywhere. The small guard from
Stanford showed creativity in both his
shooting and when finishing in tough
situations around the rim.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Automatic scorer, limitless range; has a • Physical intangibles; extremely
natural feel to shoot undersized small guard
• Pull up transition 3’s, great footwork • NEEDS to add weight
• Great coming on off ball screens, drifts • Has not developed mid-range game, 15-
to the corner to get to his spot 18 ft. pull up
• Can score down low with creativity • Can improve ball handling
• Great at running in transition • Knows weak spot is defense
• High basketball IQ • Develop a better passing game

NBA Comparison: CJ McCollum, Seth Curry, Trae Young


 Tyrell Terry has obviously shown he can score at will. His jump shooting ability and
ability to knock down 3’s both off the dribble and pull up in transition is elite. His
lack of height and skinny frame are big issues that rear their ugly heads on the
defensive end of the floor. He shows high value defensive positioning at times, but
physically cannot compete on that end of the floor.
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Choice #3
Grant Riller 23 yrs old, G, College of
Charleston
6’3 190lbs
2019-20 (31 games): 21.9 PPG; 5.1 RPG; 3.9 APG; 1.6
STL; 3.1 TO; 49.9% FG; 36.2% 3FG

Grant Riller is one of the top scorers in this draft


class. He is a three-level scorer who can get
buckets at will. There are few weaknesses with his
offensive game. Questions come into play with his
age and his defensive capabilities.
Strengths Weaknesses
• One of the best scorers in this class • 24 years old, not much room for
• Elite finisher around the rim (70.6% FG%) improvement
• Played up to his competition • Cannot always hit the big when looking to
• Great balance of volume and efficiency on pass in PNR
the offensive end • Low volume shooting off the ball
• Draws fouls at a high rate • Negative on the defensive end of the floor
• Extremely quick laterally • Will struggle to guard PNR
• May struggle to fit into a low usage role
NBA Comparison: Lou Williams, Seth Curry, Jeremy Lamb
 Grant Riller can fit in as the lead guard off the bench immediately. He is an elite
scorer that must be a defensive focal point. His footwork is elite and allows him to get
off whatever shot he wants. He may struggle to accept a low usage role if he goes to a
playoff contender. He can be a good defender in specific possessions but is rather
inconsistent with his defensive motor and effort.
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ROUND 2 PICK 34 & 36


Choice #1
Isaiah Joe 21 years old, G, Arkansas
6’5 180lbs; 6’10” Reported Wingspan
2019-20: 16.9 PPG; 4.1 RPG; 1.7 APG; 1.4 STL; 1.7
TO; 36.7% FG; 34.2% 3FG

Isaiah Joe is one of the best shooters in this


draft class. He operates well both on and off
the ball. He can facilitate as a secondary
creator. On defense, he plays well on the help
side. He looks to make plays with his length.
He struggles more on the ball due to lack of
strength on his frame.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Best shooter in draft class, deep range • Needs to add weight
• Moves well off the ball • Does not move hips well on defense,
• Creates space with side steps, step backs gets beat downhill in POA
• Underrated as a passer, can hit pocket • Struggles to attack downhill as an on-
pass in PNR ball creator (22 rim attempts)
• Soft touch around the rim (68.2% FG) • Does not draw contact on offense
• Great length for a guard (+5 wingspan) (25.3 FTr)
• Defensive playmaker at times • Turnover prone at times
NBA Comparison: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jordan Clarkson
 Isaiah Joe will step into a rotation as a high-level shooter on day one. His
percentages might now show it, but he was one of the best shooters in college
basketball, taking into consideration level of difficulty. In his case volume is more
valuable than efficiency as he took more than 10 threes per game. He can create his
own shot extremely easily out of the triple threat, and he has a quick release for a
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longer player. He has potential as a secondary PNR ballhandler when paired with a
plus screener who makes contact. On defense, his length is extremely valuable, but
his slow hips and footwork could hold him back.

Choice #2
Devon Dotson 21 yrs old, G, Kansas
6’2 185lbs; 6’3¼ Wingspan
2019-20: 18.1 PPG; 3.5 RPG; 4.0 APG; 2.1
STL; 2.4 TO; 46.8% FG; 30.9% 3FG

Devon Dotson is another impressive


guard coming out of the Bill Self group
in Kansas. Dotson showed an
impressive ability to get downhill and
finish well around the rim for a smaller
guard.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Electric speed, able to blow by defenders • Small frame, needs to add strength
using change of speed • Needs to work on outside shot, regressed in
• Very smart and smooth ball handler, has 3pt% from fr to sop year (36.3% to 30.9%)
the craftiness of your typical NBA ball • Needs to develop more of a playmaking
handler prowess
• Even with smaller frame, finishes well • Needs to develop more ball handling
• Consistent, started 66 consecutive games at moves
34 MPG • Has to add mid-range to offensive game,
• Moves well laterally on defense be a complete scorer
• Reads passing lanes and translates to points
NBA Comparison: Frank Mason, Cory Joseph
 Devon Dotson returned after a very impressive freshman and continued to show
improvement in his game throughout his sophomore year. He was one of the best
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guards in the country at finishing around the rim. He showed a lot of poise for an
underclassman.

Choice #3
Malachi Flynn 22 yrs old, PG, San Diego State
6’2 185lbs; 6’3 Wingspan
2019-20: 17.6 PPG; 4.5 RPG; 5.1 APG; 1.8 STL; 1.8 TO; 44.1% FG;
37.3% 3FG

Malachi Flynn has shown an ability to guard that could net


him immediate playing time in the league. He has shown
legitimate scoring prowess as well from multiple levels.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Pick and roll maestro, great at reading • Small frame, needs to add size
defensive coverages • Needs to develop a better paint game off
• Variety of ways to score, uses pull up as pick and roll
well as coming off the dribble, able to play • Guarding bigger guards
off the ball and relocate to get open spot • Not an elite athlete; doesn’t have quick
up shots off dribble penetration; limitless enough burst to blow by defenders
range, never shy’s away from deep 3’s • Little room for growth/development
• Good ball handler
• Active and alert defender
NBA Comparison: Fred Van Fleet, Tyus Jones
 Malachi Flynn has had a very solid college career. His ability to run the pick and roll
and shoot the 3 have been highly impressive during his tenure in college. Where he as
well lacks in physical attributes his skills have been able to carry him along to reach
this point of making it to the next level. Whether teams view him as a guy capable of
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playing the 1 or 2 at the NBA level remains up in the air. He is a versatile scorer, that
may struggle to create space against top tier defenders.

Choice #4
Immanuel Quickley, 21 yrs old, G,
Kentucky
6’3 188lbs; 6’10” Wingspan
2019-20 (30 games): 16.1 PPG; 4.2 RPG; 1.9 APG;
0.9 STL; 41.7% FG; 42.8% 3FG

Immanuel Quickley is an undersized combo


guard. He is a much-improved shooter from
three as well as the free throw line. He
increased his efficiency and volume. On
defense, he has to improve as a team
defender and utilize his length.
Strengths Weaknesses
• +7 wingspan • Poor finisher at the rim
• Showed major improvement from • Undersized wing
freshman to sophomore year • Not a facilitator
• Three-point shooting on high volume (11.4% AST, 10.6% TOV)
• Elite free throw shooter • Does not create plays on defense
• Good PNR defender (1.6% STL, 0.5% BLK)
(allowed 0.58 PPP)

Pro Comparison: Mario Chalmers, Derrick White


 Immanuel Quickley’s main skill is that he is a three-point shooter at the off-guard
spot. He has a solid release, and it should translate well to the NBA. Outside of that,
he does not offer much on offense as he struggles to finish around the rim and does
not add value as a secondary facilitator either. He is undersized, so he may struggle to
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guard down the lineup. His defensive PNR numbers bode well for his ability to guard
lead guards at times.

ROUND 2 PICK 49
Choice #1
Payton Pritchard 22 yrs old, G,
Oregon
6’2 206lbs; 6’4½ Wingspan
2019-20: 20.5 PPG; 4.3 RPG; 5.5 APG; 1.5
STL; 2.7 TO; 46.8% FG; 41.5% 3FG

Payton Pritchard is a 4-year player who


took massive leaps and truly took the
reins of the offense on all levels. His
leadership and energy make him an
NBA ready guard ready to make an
impact upon arrival in the league.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Competitor/leader on the floor • Lacks physical intangibles
• 3 level scorer with shooting range out to • Inconsistent mid-range game, may
30 feet struggle to get downhill in NBA
• Great ball-handler/playmaker, • On-ball creator, doesn’t add much
especially in the pick and roll off-ball, traditional point guard
• Locks in defensively and is able to be a • Can be a streaky shooter, forces
pest/frustrate ball handlers shots
• High IQ; good communication amongst • Not huge potential for growth, 4-
teammates year player, 22 years old
NBA Comparison: T.J. McConnell, Jalen Brunson, Carlos Arroyo
 Prichard has continuously showed his ability to command a team and elevate his play
year after year. Coming into the draft with a bit of experience, he is a player that can
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come into a team and add value in a role off the bench. He is a shot creator with NBA
level shooting range that can create for others out of the pick and roll. There will not
be much of a learning curve for him.

Choice #2
Elijah Hughes 22 yrs old, G, Syracuse
6’6 215lbs; 6’10” Wingspan
2019-20: 19.0 PPG; 4.9 RPG; 3.4 APG; 1.2 STL; 2.3
TO; 42.7% FG; 34.2% 3FG

Hughes is a translatable volume shooter. He


may struggle to create space off the dribble.
On defense, he could struggle to guard on the
ball early in his career, while being a decent
defender in passing lanes.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Shooter from three and midrange, solid • Injury history (hand, groin, concussion)
form except knee rotation • Questions of if he is mentally committed
• Draws fouls at a high rate, uses fakes (3 high schools, 2 colleges, struggled to
well be NCAA eligible)
• Plays up to his competition • Struggles to create shots at the rim
• Team defense, vocal leader on backside • Basic passing reads, plays hero ball of
• Good shot blocker as secondary the PNR
defender, charge taker • Lacks explosion
• Showed statistical improvement over his • Low motor on defense, does not attack
career the glass at all
NBA Comparison: Dwayne Bacon, Jordan Poole
 Elijah Hughes needs to be a microwave scorer if he wants a spot in this league.
Adding an ability to create space off the dribble will make him a much more desirable
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prospect. His shooting is elite for a prospect even though his percentages do not show
it. On defense, he has to be a high effort player that does everything.

Choice #3
Ty-Shon Alexander 22 yrs old, G, Creighton
6’4 195lbs; 6’8” Wingspan
2019-20: 16.9 PPG; 5.0 RPG; 2.3 APG; 1.3 STL; 1.4 TO;
43.1% FG; 39.9% 3FG

Ty-Shon Alexander is a 3&D two guard. He excels


in catch and shoot situations. He efficient with his
possessions, rarely turning the ball over. He will
not provide much outside of floor spacing on
offense. Defensively, he is at his best when
guarding shooters. He defends well on initial
attacks to the rim as well.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Solid shooter with high efficiency and • Undersized
volume • Below average athlete
• Takes care of the ball, TOV% has • Does not add value on the ball
dropped every season • Average footwork
• Attacking of closeouts • Capable passer, but does not exactly
• Defends POA well excel
• Chases shooters through screens well • Ball handling and continued
• Rotates well on defense, playmaker in improvement in PNR would help
these rotations
NBA Comparison: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Gray Trent Jr.
 Ty-Shon Alexander may need another year or two of development before he can step
in as a steady rotation piece. He needs to keep improving on his weaknesses to be
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more well-rounded. For defense, he needs to add some more strength and keep
improving on skills like his footwork.

ROUND 2 PICK 58
Choice #1
Sam Merrill 24 yrs old, G, Utah State
6’5 205lbs; N/A Wingspan
2019-20 (32 games): 19.7 PPG; 4.1 RPG; 3.9 APG;
0.9 STL; 46.1% FG; 41.0% 3FG

Sam Merrill is coming into the league as a


floor spacer, both off the catch and off the
dribble. He can facilitate when necessary.
His ceiling limiters come from his lack of
athleticism, both vertically and laterally, and
his age.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Elite shooter from behind the three-point • Forced to take tough shots due to limited
line (319 career made threes) space creation
• Scores well off the dribble, quick release • Reliant on defense giving things up to
• Will shoot if he sees any daylight make plays
• Willing facilitator • Marginal athlete, vertically and laterally
• Reads the floor very well when cutting • Age is a concern
and moving off the ball • Will struggle to defend POA
• Pick and roll potential in small volume • Below average at making rotations and
fighting through screens

NBA Comparison: Seth Curry, Patty Mills


 Sam Merrill comes into the league as a finished product. His role will be as a floor
spacer. That is without question, as he is a flamethrower from behind the three-point
line. He has potential to be the ballhandler in spot pick and roll actions depending on
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his defender. He struggles as a defender though as he will have to be hidden off the
ball. He is rather poor at making defensive rotations and getting through screening
actions. His place in the league will depend on how valuable his shooting is compared
to his defensive negatives.

Choice #2
Jordan Nwora 22 yrs old, F, Louisville
6’7 225lbs; 22 Years Old
2019-20 (31 games): 18.0 PPG; 7.7 RPG; 1.3 APG; 0.3
BLK; 44.0% FG; 40.2% 3FG

Jordan Nwora’s draft stock may be higher this year


than in previous year’s due to the three-point heavy
style of the league & his ability to stretch the floor
and knock down the catch and shoot the three with
consistency. He is far from the best athlete in this
draft, but he has enough athleticism to have some
defensive versatility. He will struggle to create his
own shot in the league which limits his overall
potential.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Shooting/ Quick Release • Below average athlete
• Spatially aware player • Not great at creating his shot
• Size translates to versatility • Weak/ poor finishing
• Elite Catch & shoot • Average ballhandler
• Solid moving shooter/ Pin downs, • Average passing ability
DHO’s, flares, pick n’ pops.
• Run’s shooting lanes in transition
NBA Comparison: Cameron Johnson, Rodney Hood
 Jordan Nwora’s offensive production will rely on other abilities to get him open, and
his consistency knocking down catch and shoot threes. Similar to Cameron Johnson,
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he has deep range and a limited ability to create his own shot. Defensively and
athletically, he resembles of Rodney Hood, usually in the right place but does not
have the talent to be a defensive playmaker.

Choice #3
Yam Madar 19 yrs old, G, Hapoel Tel Aviv (BSL)
6’3 180lbs
2019-20 (32 games): 10.6 PPG; 2.4 RPG; 3.4 APG; 2.6 TO, 1.0
STL; 44.4% FG; 26.7% 3FG

Yam Madar improved his draft stock toward the end of


the BSL season. He is a defense first guard with a great
motor. He defends well in the pick and roll as well as
point of attack actions. Most of his offense comes from
5-20 feet. He has potential to be a three-point shooter
but still has a way to go.
Strengths Weaknesses
• FT% points toward progression with • Undersized off-ball guard
shooting (81.2%) • Decision making is a minus, not a
• Creates space in the midrange dynamic facilitator
• Decent touch on floater • Statistically poor three-point shooter
• Invites contact (26.7%)
• Can pick up 94ft on defense • Below average athleticism, plays
• Fights hard through screens primarily below the rim
• Exceptional motor • Questions about how he would do with
increased volume

NBA Comparison: Patrick Beverly, Ish Smith


 Yam Madar is an unknown commodity with solid potential. He is a plus on defense
immediately due to the effort he gives on that end of the floor. He would fit well in
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DHO actions as he can get downhill without isolating on the ball. His shooting still
needs work, but he is young. He still has time to add that to his repertoire.

Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Myles Powell, 23 years old, 6’2, Seton Hall
2. Nathan Knight, 23 years old, 6’10, William & Mary
3. Kylor Kelley, 23 years old, 7’0, Oregon State

76ers Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Glenn Robinson III $ 1,620,564
2. Kyle O’Quinn $ 1,620,564
3. Raul Neto $ 1,620,564
4. Alec Burks $ 1,620,564
II. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Furkan Korkmaz $1,762,796
2. Norvel Pelle $1,517,981
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($32,866,955)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): ($32,050,702)

Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Kyle O’Quinn (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 54.7%]
Kyle O’Quinn has been on three teams in three years and last season was his least
productive. O’Quinn’s issue since entering the league has been his inability to stick
with offensive players on switches and his shortcomings as any sort of offensive threat
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while on the court. Off the court, he is a solid veteran presence that can add value to a
locker room. O’Quinn is a projected minimum salary player this free agency and
unless the 76ers are futile in finding a serviceable backup center, O’Quinn will not be
back for the 2020-21 season.
2. Raul Neto (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 62.2%]
Raul Neto was pushed into action last year when Philadelphia failed to find a backup
point guard in the preceding offseason. In 54 games of action, Neto posted stats that
fall in line with his career averages. The one bright spot Neto showed was his ability to
knock down the long ball, hitting 38.6% of three point attempts last season.
Defensively, Neto proved to be an asset despite his smaller frame. Neto is an insurance
plan for the 76ers next season in case they cannot find a suitable backup guard.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Glenn Robinson III (Projected $5,000,000-$8,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 40.9%]
Glenn Robinson III has found his role in the NBA as a spark plug off the bench. The
26-year-old posted career highs in all major offensive categories last year. Prior to
being dealt to Philadelphia, Robinson III was shooting with splits of 48.1/40.0/85.1
from the field in Golden State. This pace proved to be unsustainable as he struggled in
a smaller role in Philadelphia. He still proved to be valuable off movement, as he
scored 32% of his baskets off screens and cuts. Robinson III projects to be paid around
the mid-level exception, and Philadelphia should look to keep Robinson.
2. Alec Burks (Projected Mid-Level Exception)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 72.1%]
Alec Burks has turned himself into a reliable bench scoring option. On offense, Burks
operated in this isolation 2.2 times per 75 possessions but was rather inefficient as he
posted an effective field goal percentage of 37.5% (29th percentile). He could make
some offensive calls in Golden State due to the lack of help during Steph Curry and
Klay Thompson’s absence. Defensively, Burks is quite frankly a liability. At 6’6,
Burks should be able to give smaller wings some issues due to his length, but the effort
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has been next to nonexistent. Philadelphia should look retain Burks this offseason to
ensure they have enough firepower off the bench for next season.
3. Furkan Korkmaz (Non-Guaranteed $1,762,796)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 93%]
Furkan Korkmaz has turned himself into a reliable knockdown shooter. This past
season, Korkmaz saw his minutes double as former head coach Brett Brown was
desperate for floor spacing. Korkmaz shot 40.2 % from three on nearly five attempts.
Korkmaz has a contract guarantee decision coming up and for only $1,762,796, the
sixers would be foolish to not bring back the Turkish marksmen.
4. Norvel Pelle (Non-Guaranteed $1,517,981)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 38.6%]
Norvel Pelle had a very quiet rookie season. Appearing in 24 games, Pelle played just
under ten minutes per contest and averaged an impressive 1.3 blocks per game. Pelle
was stuck at the fourth center on the roster, and not much could be taken from his
small sample size of in game action. Pelle should be brought back to Philadelphia for
next season for his defensive potential.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Shabazz Napier 6’0 175lbs 29 years old, PG, Current Salary: $1,882,867
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 95.8%
Shabazz Napier is an offensive minded point guard. Napier had a great season by his standards in
regard to his shooting, finishing with a career high TS% of 55.2%. This is pedestrian by NBA
standards though as that is in the 58th percentile amongst NBA point guards. When taking free
throws out of the equation and just focusing on his live ball possessions, he had a effect field
goal percentage of 49.8% (41st percentile amongst NBA point guards). He has shown growth in
his ability to take and make shots off the dribble as there has been a steady decline in the
percentage of threes he has that that have been assisted (42% unassisted, up from 21% his rookie
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year). Napier did a good job of slashing this year. He did a good job of getting downhill and
using his hips to stay in front of defenders. He also finished well around the rim at a 73.5% clip,
but only took 20% of his shots at the rim. He struggled as a playmaker this year, seeing a rise in
his TO% and just bad reads in general. Although it was a small sample size, Napier struggled to
take care of the ball against playoff teams as he averaged 7.2 turnovers per 100 possessions in
the bubble. On defense, Napier was pesky in pack line defense. He read passing angles very well
and stayed active. He averaged 4.3 steals off passes and deflections per 75 possessions (81st
percentile amongst point guards). He was average by most metrics such as PIPM, RAPTOR, and
BPM. He was also average by the eye test, with lack luster shooting, decent slashing, and effort
on defense. Napier is projected to secure a minimum salary this offseason and should prove
valuable.

Option #2:
Rajon Rondo 6’1 185lbs, 34 years old, C, Current Salary: $2,564,753
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$5,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 45.6%
Rajon Rondo will be a coveted free agent after being a value piece of a Los Angeles Lakers
roster that went on to win the NBA title. He stepped his game up in the playoffs, doubling his
win shares per 48 minutes from 0.068 to 0.144. On offense, he showed that he is still a capable
three-point shooter. His percentages from three, both off the dribble (29.6%, 37th percentile
amongst point guards) and off the catch (35.2%, 25th percentile amongst guards) were both
below average. Rondo took the most threes per 36 minutes of his career this past season (4.6
attempts), so that added volume helps negate the lower percentage. He is a creative finisher
around the rim with solid body control that gets downhill with his first step and ability to make
defenders ride his hip. 95% of his made shots at the rim were unassisted. Most of his offensive
value comes from is his facilitating. Even at 34 years old, he is still one of the best passers in the
league because of his high IQ and skill at making difficult passes. He does a great job of working
within the offense and making sure his passes lead to high efficiency shots. He averaged 8.4
passes per 75 possessions that led to made threes, rim attempts, or free throws. He has regressed
some as a defender, as he is a step slower and still deals with high variance in his motor. He still
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has value even for name recognition as a defender as he is not typically targeted in isolations. He
provides versatility on this end of the floor as well as he spent at least 18% of his defensive
possessions guarding each of the guard spots and the small forward. Rondo will be a target for
contenders as they look to add depth to their point guard rotations.

Option #3:
Torrey Craig 6’7 220lbs, 29 years old, SF, Current Salary: $2,000,000
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000- $6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 0.3%
Torrey Craig is slashing defensive minded wing. He is exceptional at finishing around the rim at
73.9%, even though it was on low volume (3.3 attempts per 75 possessions). He has rather poor
shot selection from three, with only 15% of his threes being considered open even though he
does not provide much gravity as a wing. Even with that, he was average as far as efficiency
goes with a TS% of 56% and 1.04 PPP in spot up situations. He is a poor play maker, not adding
much value there. He is in the top tier of wings when it comes to crashing the offensive glass. He
averaged 2 offensive rebounds per 75 possessions and did a great job of chasing loose balls and
long rebounds. On the defensive end of the floor, his role is to guard top tier creators and be a
pest when chasing off the ball. He can add value as a lengthy defender when guarding the one
and two. He is a slightly below average player on offense and is impactful on the defensive end.

Option#4
E’Twuan Moore 6’3 190lbs 31 years old, PG/SG, Current Salary: $8,664,928
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on 1 Year Deal: 41.6%
E’Twaun Moore is an outlier in the sense that he is a plus three-point shooter, while remaining
an average to below average free throw shooter. His main offensive role is to shoot threes off the
catch, and he does a great job at that, shooting over 37% from three each of the past three
seasons. A lot of his shots come off screening actions, and he knows how to navigate them well.
He also does a surprisingly good job in isolations, as he does a good job creating space. He is
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also a plus at creating, opening the floor up for him some. Defensively, he does not add much
value. He was consistently attacked in pick and roll switches. Even when guarding his own man
on the perimeter, he did not add much value. He typically guards the worse guard or wing on the
court. He does a decent job in off-ball situations, reading passing lanes well and playing solid
help. Moore can be a secondary creator off the bench in spot minutes, but mainly residing in an
off-ball shooting role.

Option #5:
Jevon Carter: 6’1 200lbs 25 years old, PG, Current Salary $1,416,852
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 20.3%
Jevon Carter is an end of rotation signing to add value in specific matchups. Carter drew some
notoriety as a backup point guard during his eight-game run with the Suns in the bubble which
included a 20-point game against the Miami Heat. On the offensive end of the floor, he is only a
plus as a three-point shooter off the catch. He made threes at a good clip, but he did not face
much defensive focus. That 42% clip could face decline if he gets more attention from defenses
as well as when volume increases. Outside of that, Carter is a negative everywhere else on the
offensive side of the ball. Defensively, Carter is a top tier perimeter defender. He uses his body
extremely well and makes it tough for ball handlers. He is a tough defender both as a point of
attack defender and as a team defender.

Trade Scenarios
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder Receiving: Josh Richardson, Mike Scott, 2020 1st Round
Pick (21st overall)
76ers Receiving: Dennis Schroder
This deal gives the Philadelphia 76ers a legitimate lead guard off the bench in Dennis Schroder.
The 27-year-old guard was stellar last season, averaging 18.9 points on 46.9% shooting.
Schroder produced 3.6-win shares last season and captained the Oklahoma City bench unit.
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Schroder would be a huge get for Philadelphia as they struggled mightily in the half court due to
their poor on court spacing. Schroder provides them with someone who can run pick and roll
effectively, get his own shot and can close games alongside Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons.
Defensively, Schroder was solid, posting a +1.6 defensive RAPTOR rating. He also led the
Thunder in defensive win shares. For Oklahoma City, this gives them yet another first round
pick. Richardson and Scott are in this deal to simply as salary filler. Although Richardson has
shown 3&D potential, he is not a long-term piece for the Thunder.

2. Detroit Pistons
Detroit Receiving: Al Horford, Matisse Thybulle, 2020 2nd Round
Pick (34th overall) 2020 2nd Round Pick (49th overall)
76ers Receiving: Derrick Rose, Tony Snell & Svi Mykhailiuk
In this trade, Philadelphia admits a prior mistake and retools their roster. The Al Horford deal in
the 2019 offseason was a blemish on ‘The Process’, and this trade allows newly hired president
Daryl Morey to fix it. Derrick Rose has revitalized his career in Detroit and would add a
secondary ball handler that can captain their bench unit. Tony Snell has real 3&D ability and will
slot into the Philly offense as a floor spacer. Svi Mykhailiuk can also provide Philly with some
plus shooting on an offense that desperately needs it. For Detroit, this deal nets them two top 50
selections and two rotation players. Horford would slot in well next to Griffin in the Detroit
offense and Thybulle showed all-defensive team potential.

3. Brooklyn Nets
Nets Receiving: Josh Richardson, 2020 2nd Round Pick (36th
overall via Atlanta)
76ers Receiving: Joe Harris (Sign & Trade)
This deal helps Philadelphia begin to solve their shooting problem. Joe Harris has been among
the league leaders in three-point shooting and would immediately help a Philadelphia offense
that lacked any sort of spacing. In 2019-20, Harris shot 42.4% on 5.9 attempts for the Brooklyn
Nets. Harris is viewed leaguewide as an elite shooter and will attract many suitors this offseason.
The Nets get a wing in return at a cheaper price than what Joe Harris may attract on the market.
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PHOENIX SUNS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
LXXII. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 10
LXXIII. Team Needs
a. Playmaking Guard to pair with Booker
i. Defensive capabilities, lateral quickness/on ball IQ; offensive
playmaking abilities/decision making
b. Active Forward
i. Hustle Rebounder, Defensive presence, gritty
LXXIV. Draft Scenarios
a. Keep pick 10
b. Trade the pick
LXXV. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Suns Free Agency
XXXI. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XXXII. Free Agent Targets
XXXIII. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 10
Choice #1
Tyrese Haliburton 20 yrs old, G, Iowa State
6’5 175lbs; 6’8 Wingspan
2019-20: 15.2 PPG; 5.9 RPG; 6.5 APG; 2.5 STL; 2.8 TO; 50.4%
FG; 41.9% 3FG

Tyrese Haliburton is a lengthy, playmaking guard. His


projected fit is as a secondary facilitator. He operates well
both on and off the ball.

Strengths Weaknesses
• High value passer looking to create for • Forces passing at times, tries to make
others, lets the play happen flashy play
• Best action is pick and roll, changes pace • Inconsistent when attacking in pick and
well in this action roll, allows defender to push him away
• Solid floor general from screen
• Confident shooter with solid touch in paint • Shot form/release point, needs to be sped
plus midrange up, inconsistent off the dribble
• Length leads to potential as defensive • Needs to add some weight/strength
playmaker • Falls for pump fakes, leaves feet, needs to
• Solid pack line defender that reads passing stay down and play with a hand up in front
lanes well
Pro Comparison: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dante Exum, Lonzo Ball
 Tyrese Haliburton’ length and ability to get teammates involved gives him great
upside of what he can do with even more talented teammates. For Phoenix, adding
Haliburton to a team with Devin Booker and company he can greatly impact this team
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right away. Learning from the savviness and creativity of Ricky Rubio, scoring
prowess of Booker, and even defensive ability from Jevon Carter.

Choice #2
Devin Vassell 20 yrs old, G/F, FSU
6’7 190lbs; 6’9 ¼ Wingspan
2019-20: 12.7 PPG; 5.1 RPG; 1.6 APG; 1.4
STL; 0.8 TO; 49.0% FG; 41.5% 3FG

Devin Vassell is a 3&D prototype. He


is an efficient shooter off the catch as
well as a defensive playmaker. He has
shown flashes of offensive facilitation
as well.

Strengths Weaknesses
• NBA ready defender, long/lengthy frame • Skinny frame, needs to add weight
• Effort player; never gives up on a play, • Lacks speed and quickness to blow by
threat to make chase down plays in defenders
transition • Lacks a variety of ball handling moves
• Fronts the post well • Not a proficient ball handler
• Shoots 3p at high %, high release point • Can be risk taker on defense, relies on
• Runs floor aggressive on fast break length to recover
• Ability to facilitate the ball even not being • Quicker guards can get past his hips
primary ball handler
NBA Comparison: Khris Middleton, Robert Covington, Mikal Bridges
 Devin Vassell made improvements his shooting ability from freshman to sophomore
year. He has improved his offensive game tremendously and his continual effort on both
ends of the floors shows his determination, maturity, and readiness to play and impact the
next level immediately. With the undersized frame his biggest concern is his ability to
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gain weight, but his length is a huge plus for NBA wings on the defensive end of the
floor.

Choice #3
Desmond Bane 22 yrs old, G/F, TCU
6’6 215lbs; 6’9 ½ Wingspan
2019-20: 16.6 PPG; 6.3 RPG; 3.9 APG; 1.5 STL; 2.3 TO;
45.2% FG; 44.2% 3FG

Desmond Bane is a 3&D two guard with some


potential as a spot playmaker. He is an extremely
intelligent player off the ball that knows how to use
screens to create advantage situations. On defense,
he rotates well to blow up screening actions. His
frame is also a plus on this end of the floor.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Top tier shooter in this draft class • Negative wingspan
• Comfortable shooting off dribble or • Not much room to grow considering
catch age
• Underrated passer for a wing • Below average first step
• Solid, creative layup package around • Settles for long twos when attacking
the rim off the dribble
• Charge taker on defense • Lackluster ball handling
• Extremely intelligent when navigating • Lacks lateral athleticism, mainly
screens on off agility and speed
NBA Comparison: Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart
 Desmond Bane fits in immediately as a floor spacer. His offensive potential is based
upon his ability to create space with screening actions and create for others in limited
situations. On defense, his negative wingspan and lack of foot speed will hurt him,
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but his strength and IQ should make up for it in some capacity. He may have some
potential to guard some undersized bigs due to his frame.

Undrafted Free Agent Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Myles Powell, 23 years old, 6’2, Seton Hall
2. Kahlil Whitney, 19 years old, 6’7, Kentucky
3. Trent Forrest, 22 years old, 6’4, Florida State

Suns Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Aron Baynes $5,453,280
II. Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
1. Dario Saric $2,687,417
2. Jevon Carter $1,937,273
III. Team Option
1. Frank Kaminsky $4,767,000
2. Cameron Payne $1,977,011
3. Cheick Diallo $1,824,003
IV. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Elie Okobo $1,663,861
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Space minus Holds): $14,258,148
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $27,937,647
Who stays, Who goes
▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Aron Baynes (Projected $8,000,000-$12,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 17.5%]
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With Aron Baynes coming off an injury riddled season, it is time for the Phoenix Suns
to move on. Baynes played well during the 25-game suspension of franchise
cornerstone Deandre Ayton, but once he went down with a hip injury after taking a
knee to the hip from Jaylen Brown, his season took a downturn. He also struggled to
remain healthy when the season resumed for the bubble as he battled COVID-19 and
was inactive for a knee injury. When the Suns acquired Baynes, one would have to
assume knowing his contract was expiring so his tenure would just be a one-year term.
The Suns are looking to take the leap into the playoffs this upcoming season, and
Baynes may be left on the outside looking as the excelled in the bubble without his
services.
2. Dario Saric (Projected Mid-Level Exception)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 70.5%]
Being able to keep Dario Saric on a qualifying offer would greatly benefit the Phoenix
Suns with his ability to shoot the three and spread the floor but expect Dario to receive
big numbers in free agency. This past season, he was not very efficient from three, but
opponents still respected him as a top tier shooter, as his three-point gravity was in the
82nd percentile amongst bigs. His issues come on defense as he was attacked
relentlessly in space. Specifically, in pick and roll actions, he was targeted for
perimeter switches. At 6’10, he struggled to do much of anything as an interior
defender. He has only blocked 6% of his contests, in the 2nd percentile amongst bigs.
If the Suns could get him at approximately $5-$6 million a year, it would be well
worth the matching and retaining his services. In the current market, the projections
value Saric at a $10 million per year, which in turn makes his figure too much for the
Suns.
3. Frank Kaminsky (Team Option $5,005,350)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 50.8%]
The 7-foot Wisconsin product has not panned out in his five years in the league, and
this season was no different. After only playing a total of 39 games this season,
Kaminsky’s consistent injuries and unavailability is one of the reasons it is time to part
ways with the big man. Aside from that, when he is on the floor Kaminsky does have
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the skillset to be a rebounding big man with the ability to stretch and space the floor
with his three-point shooting ability. He has shown potential as a passer, as he posted
his highest assist percentage of his career this season (14.3%). He created 9.1 points
off assists per 75 possessions (86th percentile amongst bigs). Issue here lies in his
decreasing 3FG% over the past three years (33.1% 2019-20) and his inability to guard.
Kaminsky averaged 0.5 blocks per 75 possessions (4th percentile amongst bigs).
Opponents shot 4.8% better at the rim on average when Kaminsky contested versus
expected (11th percentile amongst bigs). Kaminsky is a poor defender and does not
offset that with his offensive value.
4. Cheick Diallo (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 58.1%]
Cheick Diallo is still a very young with intriguing physical gifts and potential. At 6’9
with a 7’5 wingspan the capability to turn him into a defensive presence is very
intriguing. As a scorer, Diallo has shown improved touch, shooting 87% from the free
throw line on low volume. He is an effective scorer in isolation actions, scoring 1.3
PPP on roughly 1.5 possessions per game. He has shown consistent efficiency scoring
the ball, finishing the last three seasons with a true shooting percentage above 60%.
He projects as a solid roll man in the pick and roll, as he sets hard screens and opens
up well out of the action. He has a good feel for moving off the ball. He also excelled
on the glass, averaging 9.8 rebounds per 36 minutes. He attacks the offensive glass
frequently, cleaning up misses. Defensively, he struggles to guard the perimeter. He
was constantly a switch target when guarding the pick and roll. There is not much
value there in terms of late game situations as guarding those switches is crucial in end
of game actions. On the interior, he is a rim deterrent. He is not a playmaker on this
end of the floor, but contests a lot of shots at the rim, contesting 9.2 rim attempts per
75 possessions at the 91st percentile. Diallo is an efficient scorer in low volume
minutes that attacks the glass well. He is a prototypical interior big on the defensive
side of the ball. Diallo will most likely be let go onto the market as there is not room
for him in the Sun’s rotation.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Jevon Carter (Projected $3,000,000-$6,000,000)
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[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 20.3%]


Jevon Carter has provided what a quality role player needs to off the bench. Carter is a
player who is defensive minded first and is going to give full commitment and effort
every time he is on the court. On the offensive end of the floor, he is only a plus as a
three-point shooter off the catch. He made threes at a good clip, but he did not face
much defensive focus. That 42% clip could face decline if he gets more attention from
defenses as well as when volume increases. Outside of that, Carter is a negative
everywhere else on the offensive side of the ball. Defensively, Carter is a top tier
perimeter defender. He uses his body extremely well and makes it tough for ball
handlers. He is not expected to receive big time offers in his restricted free agency, and
with the value and experience Carter provides, he is a great guard option off the bench
as well with ability to bring out the best in a potential lottery guard pick at a lower
dollar sign of $1,937,273.
2. Elie Okobo (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 53.2%]
Although Elie Okobo is not a free agent, his contract for the 2020-21 season is not
guaranteed. Okobo has not had significant impact on the floor, but he could be a tool
used to evaluate the roster as time moves along. With the non-guarantee of his contract
it gives the Suns flexibility to keep him and evaluate his services later throughout the
season. After little showing and impact over the past two seasons, this may be
Okobo’s last opportunity to prove his worth on the roster. As the potential fourth point
guard on the roster, the opportunities for playing time may be sparce.
3. Cameron Payne (Team Option $1,977,011)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 57.1%]
Signing Cameron Payne for the bubble seeding games, and with his impressive
showing throughout the 8-0 bubble run may raise his value. He did a good job of
pushing the break in the bubble as well as sprinting to the three-point line when
operating off the ball. He showed some potential to move down the lineup as he spent
67% of his bubble minutes at the two or three. The success from his run in the NBA
bubble will push the Phoenix Suns to pick up his team option.
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Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Montrezl Harrell 6’7 240lbs 27 years old, PF/C, Current Salary: $8,000,000
Projected Annual Salary: $15,000,000-$20,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 34.1%
Montrezl Harrell is coming off his best season in the league in which resulted in him winning the
NBA Sixth Man of the Year award. With the addition of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George,
Montrezl saw a much different role that he flourished in. He played all his minutes at the five
after splitting time between the four and five earlier in his career. Offensively, he is an elite roll
man who draws extra attention from wings on digs and rotations. He also showed some decent
volume on isolation possessions, averaging 5.9 per 75 possessions. He was not extremely
efficient in these actions but showed a propensity for creating contact and drawing fouls that
netted him points at the free throw line. Defensively, Harrell is an active defender on the interior,
but does not add much value outside of that. Opponents chased after him in the pick and roll,
looking to isolate him on the perimeter. Harrell’s energy and grit is a stat that will never show in
a box score but is undeniably felt on the court. Harrell is third in the NBA with 30 charges drawn
this season. He is in for a huge payday this offseason, which almost undoubtably does not
include his current team the Los Angeles Clippers. Going into his sixth year in the league, he can
help Phoenix with his intensity and much improved skillset. His salary could force Phoenix into
relying on veteran minimums and undrafted rookie contracts if they pay him $20 million
annually.

Option #2:
Paul Millsap 6’7 257lbs 35 years old, PF, Current Salary: $30,150,000
Projected Annual Salary: $12,000,000-15,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 58.8%
Millsap is wrapping up his three-year deal with the Denver Nuggets which now allows him to hit
the free agent market for possibly the last time in his career. At 35 years old, Millsap is at the tail
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end of his career, but does not mean he cannot provide value to this young Phoenix team.
Millsap’s playoff pedigree and veteran presence alone would be a huge upgrade for the Phoenix
Suns. A roster full of young guns looking to break into the playoff conversation need a veteran to
lean on and provide guidance throughout the course of a long season. Along with his leadership,
Millsap provides the ability to shoot the three and spread the floor, as well as a much-needed
defensive anchor alongside Ayton. Millsap has seen a bit of decline in his numbers over the past
two seasons with a steady decrease in minutes played, points per game, total rebounds, and
blocks. Millsap has seen his percentages from behind the arc rise from 34%, to 36%, to 43% this
season. His free throw percentage is also the highest it has been in any point of his career after
shooting 81% from the line this season. After making $30 million annually over the last three
seasons and a career earnings of $181,245,742, Millsap is sure to take a slight pay decrease for
what may be his final contract. He is an effective player on both ends of the floor, which means
he will gauge a solid interest in the free agent market. It will come down to two variables for
Millsap and the Suns. Will the Suns potential with young talent as well as the offer sheet impress
Millsap enough to lure him to sign? Will Millsap be willing to come compete for a playoff spot
and maybe not a championship?

Option #3:
Serge Ibaka 7’0 235lbs 31 years old, PF/C, Current Salary: $23,271,605
Projected Annual Salary: $15,000,000-$20,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Contract: 0.3%
Serge Ibaka is a veteran big man who helps space the floor. Ibaka has seen a bit of his defensive
game diminish but has in turn improved tremendously on the offensive side of the ball.
Defensively he did a good job of contesting shots but has lost the ability to block shots at a high
rate (contested 39% of rim attempts, blocked 13% of contests). Both with this season and last
season’s NBA Finals run with the Raptors, Ibaka has had a huge impact on the Raptor’s offense.
Ibaka is averaging a career high in points this season (15.4 points) and the second most in his
career for rebounding (8.2). With no more Kawhi Leonard, Ibaka has been able to do more on
the offensive side and still shoot a high percentage from the field (51% FG, 38.5% 3FG). He was
extremely impactful as a floor spacer as he got quality shots from three while acting as a
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deterrent for help defenders (shooting gravity in the 78th percentile amongst bigs). Ibaka is still
young enough to be looking to cash in on a pay day with the possibility of returning to Toronto
depending on what they decide to do with both him and Fred Van Fleet.

Option #4:
Tristan Thompson 6’9 254lbs 29 years old, PF/C, Current Salary: $18,539,130
Projected Annual Salary: Mid-Level Exception
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 36%
With the departures of Kyrie Irving, Lebron James, and the injuries sustained to Kevin Love,
Tristan Thompson has seen his role change in a variety of ways. This past season especially,
Thompson has been called on more to become more of an offensive vocal point. Tristan has had
a career high in field goal attempts with 10 attempts per game, which translated to a career high
in points per game (12.0). He was even relied upon in isolations at times, as he averaged 3.1
isolations per 75 possessions (70th percentile amongst bigs). Tristan shot a reasonable 51.2%
from the field as well as his continued success on both the offensive and defensive glass (10.1
rebounds). He averaged 4.8 offensive rebounds per 75 possessions, in the 95th percentile amongst
bigs. Although he still struggles from the free throw line (61.5%) Tristan began to adjust and
improve his game by attempting three pointers for the first time in his career (9 for 23, 39.1%).
Where Thompson could become the most useful for the Suns is in the pick and roll game.
Whether it be Ricky Rubio, Devin Booker, or a new rookie guard, Thompson averaged the eight
most screen assists in the league (4.6). The Phoenix Suns as a team finished 28th in the league for
that category. Getting open looks off screens for a scorer like Booker is extremely dangerous.
With the slight expansion of his game, defensive prowess and his rebounding ability, his fit with
the Suns seems terrific. Thompson could return to his normal power forward position as well as
fit into the rotation to also get minutes at the center position. With the Cavaliers in a continued
rebuild and the addition of Andre Drummond, they may be looking to move on from their former
fourth overall pick. Thompson is believed to be floating around the middle of the pack for
available big man as a potential add on at the mid-level exception. If the Suns are satisfied with
his rare and limited three-point shooting, signing the stat stuffing rebounder would help elevate
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the Suns in second chance points (21st in 2019-20) and overall rebound per game (26th in 2019-
20).

Option #5:
Jerami Grant 6’8 210lbs 26 years old, PF/SF, Current Salary: $9,346,153
Projected Annual Salary: $12,000,000-$15,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 1.4%
Jerami Grant is a budding 3&D player. His value skyrocketed during the Nuggets playoff run.
Although his statistical profile regressed some from the regular season, he passed the eye test
with flying colors. He was a competent third or fourth option for the Nuggets when Jamal
Murray and Nikola Jokic received extra defensive attention. Over the past two seasons, Grant has
shown consistently on good volume from three, shooting 39.1% on 545 attempts. He is a plus
player in low volume isolations and at finishing around the rim. He is a competent finisher
around the rim and excels at drawing contact. He does not add much value as a playmaker, but
shot finishing is more of his offensive role and not shot creation. He is adept at most facets of
defense. He was versatile in his matchups, guarding every position for at least 10% of
possessions. He is a good rim deterrent in low volume, blocking 25% of all the shots that he
contested. He still has at least another year or two of growth before his peak. If his playmaking
improves on both ends of the floor, he could be a top 50 player in the league.

Trade Scenarios
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder Receive: Kelly Oubre Jr. Ricky Rubio, 2022 1st Round
Pick
Suns Receive: Chris Paul, 2020 2nd round pick (53rd overall)
The Phoenix Suns make a buyers move and prove to Devin Booker and the fan base that the
franchise is committed to winning. Chris Paul’s mentorship of both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
and Dennis Schroder, along with his ability to command the floor and be whatever the team
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needed for that night could add tremendous value to the Phoenix Suns. If the Suns are willing to
take on that money, as well as giving up a future first rounder to grab Paul, Phoenix could be a
contender for a top four or five seed in the west. For Oklahoma City, Sam Presti gets an expiring
contract, getting Chris Paul’s long-term contract off his cap, and add draft capital. This is exactly
the type of deal he is looking for as their rebuild begins.

2. New Orleans Pelicans


Pelicans Receive: Ricky Rubio, Kelly Oubre Jr, 2022 1st Round
Pick
Suns Receive: Jrue Holiday, 2020 2nd Round Pick (39th overall)
The Phoenix Suns trade a future first round pick for a perennial contender for an all-star roster
spot. Jrue Holiday has been in trade rumors for the past two seasons. With the departure of
Anthony Davis and arrival of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Lonzo Ball, it looks as if
youth is the new game plan for the New Orleans Pelicans. Holiday is a top tier defender, as well
as valuable scoring option. His added experience would be a huge pickup in Phoenix. Holiday’s
$25 million contract for next season and a $26.2 million player option for 2021-22 may be an
intimating figure for the Phoenix Suns. Looking at the difference Holiday makes on the floor, he
would be beneficial for pursuing a deep playoff run. For New Orleans, gaining a playmaking
point guard in Rubio who can mentor Lonzo Ball, a slasher and expiring contract in Kelly Oubre,
and another first round pick.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers
Cavaliers Receive: Ricky Rubio, Kelly Oubre Jr, 2022 2nd Round
Pick
Suns Receive: Kevin Love
Kevin Love’s time in Cleveland is at its expiration date. With the money left on his contract,
Phoenix can leverage their younger and exciting Kelly Oubre Jr to pry Love out of Cleveland.
For Cleveland gaining any value for a 32-year-old Love with his services no longer fitting what
Cleveland is looking for. Phoenix can finally get their stretch four to help them make the
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playoffs in the Western Conference with their own big three in Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton,
and Kevin Love.
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PORTLAND
TRAILBLAZERS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
LXXVI. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 16
b. Round 2: Pick 46
LXXVII. Team Needs
a. 3&D Wing
i. Carmelo Anthony could be on the way out after the Trailblazers
took a one-year flyer on him. Portland could add a wing player
with high three-point efficiency as well as ability to guard top
forwards in the Western Conference.
b. Playmaking Point Guard
i. Damian Lillard will be the point guard in Portland for most
likely the rest of his career. Portland needs to add a guard to
give Lillard rest during stretches. Lillard and McCollum were
first and second in minutes per game last season (37.5 & 36.5)
LXXVIII. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Trail Blazers Free Agency
XXXIV. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XXXV. Free Agent Targets
XXXVI. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 16
Choice #1
Kira Lewis Jr 20 yrs old, G, Alabama
6’3 165lb; 6’6 Wingspan
2019-20: 18.5 PPG; 4.8 RPG; 5.2 APG; 1.8
STL; 3.5 TO; 45.9% FG; 36.6% 3FG

Kira Lewis has been a great 2-year


starter for Alabama competing in the
SEC. Seeing his growth over this past
season and his progression in his 2nd
year of starting every game for Alabama.
This improvement is only scratching the
surface for this quick, shifty guard.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Lightning speed, extremely quick in • Court awareness and vision needs to
blowing by defenders improve
• Driver, puts head down, crafty/creative • Can tend to rely on speed and quickness
finisher to help him recover defensively
• Good off ball player, knows to create • Needs to add weight and strength to his
space frame
• Quality shooter off the dribble • Tends to force passes into traffic
• Good on and off ball defender • Improving confidence rising and
shooting on pick and roll
NBA Comparison: De’Aaron Fox, Dennis Schröder,
 Lewis Jr. has shown a great amount of improvement from Freshman to Sophomore
year, only touching the surface of his potential. With his improvement in all major
areas, Lewis has shown his potential to be another electric speedster in the NBA. ‘
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Choice #2
Saddiq Bey 21 yrs old, F, Villanova
6’8 215lbs; 6’11” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 16.1 PPG; 4.7 RPG; 2.4 APG; 0.8
STL; 1.5 TO; 47.7% FG; 45.1% 3FG

Saddiq Bey is an established offensive talent. He


has a versatile play style, combining a midpost
game, three-point shooting, and playmaking. He
struggles at times to fully utilize his frame,
especially in that midpost area. On the defensive
end, Bey is average at best. His athleticism as well
as his age may hold him back.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Capable of taking over spot ball handling • Below average athlete
responsibilities • Does not do a great job of creating space
• Plus shooter off the catch • Avoids contact
• Creative midpost scorer • Not a defensive playmaker
• Finishes well below the rim • Defensive IQ may be overstated
• Intelligent team defender • Bad hips, gets beat downhill in POA
NBA Comparison: DeMarre Carroll, Harrison Barnes
 Saddiq Bey has potential to be used as both the ballhandler and the screener in the
pick and pop. His versatility could also provide opportunities to utilize switches and
take advantage of mismatches. Bey could also see post mismatches, allowing him to
get off his faceup jump shot. There is real concern about his defensive potential due
to his lack of vertical and lateral burst. He will not ever be a playmaker on this end of
the floor, but he could be capable at some point in his career.
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Choice #3
Aaron Nesmith 21 yrs old, SG, Vanderbilt
6’6 215lbs; 6’11 Wingspan
2019-20 (14 games): 23.0 PPG; 4.9 RPG; 0.9 APG; 1.4
STL; 1.7 TO; 51.2% FG; 52.2% 3FG

Aaron Nesmith is a floor spacing wing. During


his sophomore year, he was an elite shooter
from behind the three-point line. He is limited in
other parts of his offensive game such as his
playmaking. Defensively, he uses his wingspan
well and works well off the ball. Injury concerns
will most likely not carry forward as there is
little risk for reinjury with a stress fracture.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Floor spacing and shooting • Limited as an on-ball scorer
• Shoots well off of motion, low volume • Court awareness, basic passing reads
• Squares up well to the rim • Lack of spatial awareness
• Decent shot selection, uses side step well • Does not move well laterally
• Solid packline defender off-ball • Will get attacked in POA
• Makes good rotations, can take charges • Extremely flat footed
• Solid frame for a wing, length and size • Poor defender in PNR
NBA Comparison: Cameron Johnson, Buddy Hield
 Aaron Nesmith is a lottery prospect because of his three-point shooting. His volume
and efficiency was literally off the charts. A full season at this level would have
moved him up draft boards, but due to a stress fracture he was not around for SEC
play. He fits well into the archetype of a 3&D wing, especially if he can improve
his hips and footwork. He would be a good fit with a contender as he can step in
and space the floor.
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ROUND 2 PICK 46
Choice #1
Jay Scrubb 20 yrs old, G, John A. Logan
6’6 200lbs 6’9” wingspan
2019-20 (30 games): 21.9 PPG; 6.8 RPG; 2.7 APG;
1.4 STL; 50.1% FG; 33.3% 3FG

Jay Scrubb is an unproven commodity after


only playing college basketball at the JUCO
level. He is an extremely confident on-ball
scorer first that excels at slashing. He has
tunnel vision and makes soft passes. On
defense, the hope is that his motor picks up.
He offers some playmaking when he tries.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Finishes well at and above the rim • MOTOR is by far the biggest concern,
• Extremely athletic both vertically and both offensively and defensively
laterally • Struggles to shoot with any consistency
• Shoots well off the dribble • Shot selection, blackhole on offense
• Strong handle for a bigger guard • Defensive awareness when making
• Good hips when guarding POA rotations or playing help side
• Can create shot at will • Soft skills, work ethic is suspect

NBA Comparison: Shabazz Muhammad, Dion Waiters


 Jay Scrubb is a high upside prospect with an extremely low floor. He can get to the
rim and score with the best of them. He does a good job of drawing fouls there as
well. None of that really matters if he does not try to be a better player. He needs to
show effort on defense and when he is playing off the ball. If his motor improves, he
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is a steal in the second round. If not, he will be out of the league after his rookie
contract.

Choice #2
Devon Dotson 21 yrs old, G, Kansas
6’2 185lbs; 6’3¼ Wingspan
2019-20: 18.1 PPG; 3.5 RPG; 4.0 APG; 2.1
STL; 2.4 TO; 46.8% FG; 30.9% 3FG

Devon Dotson is another impressive


guard coming out of the Bill Self group
in Kansas. Dotson showed an
impressive ability to get downhill and
finish well around the rim for a smaller
guard.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Electric speed, able to blow by defenders • Small frame, needs to add strength
using change of speed • Needs to work on outside shot, regressed in
• Very smart and smooth ball handler, has 3pt% from fr to sop year (36.3% to 30.9%)
the craftiness of your typical NBA ball • Needs to develop more of a playmaking
handler prowess
• Even with smaller frame, finishes well • Needs to develop more ball handling
• Consistent, started 66 consecutive games at moves
34 MPG • Has to add mid-range to offensive game,
• Moves well laterally on defense be a complete scorer
• Reads passing lanes and translates to points
NBA Comparison: Frank Mason, Cory Joseph
 Devon Dotson returned after a very impressive freshman and continued to show
improvement in his game throughout his sophomore year. He was one of the best
guards in the country at finishing around the rim. He showed a lot of poise for an
underclassman.
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Choice #3
Ty-Shon Alexander 22 yrs old, G, Creighton
6’4 195lbs; 6’8” Wingspan
2019-20: 16.9 PPG; 5.0 RPG; 2.3 APG; 1.3 STL; 1.4 TO;
43.1% FG; 39.9% 3FG

Ty-Shon Alexander is a 3&D two guard. He excels


in catch and shoot situations. He efficient with his
possessions, rarely turning the ball over. He will
not provide much outside of floor spacing on
offense. Defensively, he is at his best when
guarding shooters. He defends well on initial
attacks to the rim as well.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Solid shooter with high efficiency and • Undersized
volume • Below average athlete
• Takes care of the ball, TOV% has • Does not add value on the ball
dropped every season • Average footwork
• Attacking of closeouts • Capable passer, but does not exactly
• Defends POA well excel
• Chases shooters through screens well • Ball handling and continued
• Rotates well on defense, playmaker in improvement in PNR would help
these rotations
NBA Comparison: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Gray Trent Jr.
 Ty-Shon Alexander may need another year or two of development before he can step
in as a steady rotation piece. He needs to keep improving on his weaknesses to be
more well-rounded. For defense, he needs to add some more strength and keep
improving on skills like his footwork.
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Undrafted Free Agent Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Trevelin Queen, 23 years old, 6’6, New Mexico State
2. Tres Tinkle, 24 years old, 6’7, Oregon State
3. Justinian Jessup, 22 years old, 6’7, Boise State

Blazers Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Hassan Whiteside $40,639,529
2. Caleb Swanigan $3,665,787
3. Carmelo Anthony $1,737,274
II. Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
1. Wenyen Gabriel $1,749,812
III. Player Option
1. Rodney Hood $6,003,900
2. Mario Hezonja $1,977,011
IV. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Trevor Ariza $12,800,000
V. Dead Cap Space
1. Andrew Nicholson $2,844,430
2. Anderson Varejao $1,913,345
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($45,595)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $17,056,720
Who stays, Who goes
▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Hassan Whiteside (Projected Mid-Level Exception)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 94%]
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Acquired from the Miami Heat past offseason, Hassan Whiteside served his role as
the starting center while Jusuf Nurkić was recovering from his leg injury. In that role,
he excelled with the ball dominant guards and was able to be productive down low
shooting 62.1% from the field, average his second highest career rebounding numbers
with 13.5 rebounds, and lead the NBA in blocked shots with 2.9 blocks per game.
Whiteside proved very valuable for Portland when they needed their center gap filled.
With Nurkić back and Whiteside’s minutes being cut in half, it looks like Whiteside’s
one-year trial in Portland has come to an end. Portland will look to move forward with
the bigs under contract and let Whiteside hit the free agent market if he is seeking
anything more than a minimum.
2. Caleb Swanigan (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 0.1%]
Along with Wenyen Gabriel, Caleb Swanigan was a piece to complete the Trevor
Ariza trade from the Kings. In his second stint with Portland, Swanigan served his role
as coming in for backup power forward minutes when the team was not running a
small ball lineup. Swanigan was a rather poor replacement player, and with the
Trailblazers continued success with a small ball lineup, and Zach Collins returning
next season for power forward and center minutes Swanigan is looking to be headed
out of Portland for the second time.
3. Mario Hezonja (Player Option $1,977,011)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 41.8%]
With the arrivals of Carmelo Anthony and Trevor Ariza last season, Mario Hezonja
watched most of his minutes at both forward positions evaporate. He struggles with his
consistency and feel for the game. With the expectation that Anthony, Ariza, Rodney
Hood, and Zach Collins take all the minutes at the three and four, Hezonja will have to
see what other options are out there for him to get more playing time. With the former
fifth pick only averaging 4.8 PPG and shooting 42.2% from the field, his best
opportunity will be coming from a team looking to rebuild and away from Portland.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Carmelo Anthony (Projected Mid-Level Exception)
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[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 83%]


Despite being out of the league for about two seasons, Carmelo Anthony proved not
only can he still play, but he is a capable starter at the NBA level. Yes, Anthony has
aged and is not the superstar we once knew, but he was a key part on the Blazer’s
bubble run into the playoffs. One area where he has struggled is scoring in isolation
situations. In 7.7 isolation possessions per 75 possessions (99th percentile amongst
wings), he posted an effective field goal percentage of 42.7% (39th percentile amongst
wings). He has shown some real potential as a pick and pop screener, as he averaged
almost two screen assists per 75 possessions. This action also puts him in great triple
threat situations off the catch. The Trailblazers gave Anthony is opportunity and with
the chemistry, skillset, and leadership he brought we can absolutely believe Anthony
will be back in Portland for another year.
2. Wenyen Gabriel (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 49.4%]
Acquiring Wenyen Gabriel as a piece of the Trevor Ariza trade from the Kings, proved
to be a smart move that can help the Trailblazers as they move forward. With a very
minimal sample size from the regular season, Gabriel provided valuable bench
minutes during the NBA restart and bubble playoffs. In four postseason games,
Gabriel showed his ability to score at an NBA level nut more importantly, his talent on
the defensive end. When matched up against the Los Angeles Lakers, the Trailblazers
placed a huge role on the 22-year old’s shoulders, but he took it in stride and did what
he was asked. He started two games against the eventual NBA champion and shot 60%
from field in that series. This proven trust and shown ability makes it a great option for
Portland to bring back Gabriel.
3. Rodney Hood (Player Option $6,003,900)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 36.8%]
Coming off a brutal saddening Achilles injury, it is nearly certain Rodney Hood is
going to pick up his player option. Since coming over from Cleveland in 2018-2019,
Hood has become an asset for this Blazers team. In his two seasons with Portland,
Hood as unbelievably elevated his shooting with a 47.6% FG, 41.3% 3FG, and 55.8%
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EFG stat mark in comparison to 41.7% and 43.2% FG 37.0% and 35.9% 3FG, 50.3%
and 49.3% EFG in his previous 6 seasons spread across Utah and Cleveland.
4. Trevor Ariza (Non-Guaranteed $12,800,00)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 5.6%]
Acquired at the trade deadline, Trevor Ariza was Portland’s “win” of the deadline.
With the devastating Achilles injury to Rodney Hood, Ariza was on track to provide
valuable three-point shooting and the ability to guard primary playmakers on the
opposing roster. On the defensive end, Ariza ranked in the 99th percentile in pass lane
defense along with averaging 2.2 steals per 75 possessions. He uses his 7’2 wingspan
and high basketball IQ to attack passing lanes. Offensively, Ariza was 37.2% three-
point shooter while shooting 38.6% from his corner three-point attempts. Although
Ariza decided to opt out of the bubble, it is viable for the Trailblazers to bring back
Ariza as a rotation piece or as salary filler on an expiring contract.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Harry Giles III 6’11 240lbs 22 years old, PF/C, Current Salary: $2,578,800
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 64.9%
With only two years in the league, we have only seen a small sample size of what Harry Giles
has to offer at the professional level. Coming out of high school as the #1 recruit in the class of
2016, Giles was viewed as a highly talented power forward. After tearing his ACL for the second
time in his life, Giles missed most of his collegiate time at Duke. Although he declared after not
playing, he was still viewed with the potential of his former #1 status. Things never really
panned out Sacramento with the two sides never fully meshing. Giles averaged just 14 minutes
per game, 7.0 PPG, and 4.0 RPG. Although his production does not seem like much, he is still 21
years old with plenty of upside.

Option #2:
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Kris Dunn 6’3 205lbs 26 years old, PG, Current Salary: $5,348,007
Projected Annual Salary: $8,000,000-$10,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 59.5%
Kris Dunn just came off an all-defense level season, receiving the 11th most votes (31). He was
labeled by many as a best early in his career but has carved out a solid role as a strong perimeter
defender. On the offensive end of the floor, is where he struggled to add value. As an outside
shooter, he is one of the worst in the league (23.5% from three off the dribble, 26.6% from three
off the dribble). Some players such as Marcus Smart who struggle from three still add value as a
shooter because of their shot volume leading to gravity, but that is not the case for Dunn as he
was in the 4th percentile amongst guards in Total 3PT Gravity according to Bball Index. He is a
slight plus at getting to the rim and finishing. He is very much an average playmaker, typically
acting as a passive creator. Defensively, he can guard the one through three. He is one of the best
perimeter defenders in the league, especially as a play maker in passing lanes. He was in the
100th percentile for Steals per 75 and deflections per 75. His role is to guard his opponents’
number one option on the floor.

Option #3:
Nerlens Noel 6’10 220 26 years old, C/PF, Current Salary: $2,028,594
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000-$10,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 48.4%
Noel is a rim running big who provides good rim protection. His offensive game is extremely
limited, this past season 61% of his field goals came from 0-3ft from the hoop. He relies on
others to create for him, lob opportunities, pick n’ rolls to the rim, and running the floor. This
season marked his career best VORP of 1.5 & his career best win shares of 5.

Option #4:
Thon Maker 7’0 210lbs 28 yrs old, SG/SF, Last Season Salary: $10,740,740
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000-$8,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 38%
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Thon Maker came into the league as a huge name on social media due to his length and assumed
athleticism. Unfortunately, he has not met those expectations as he only played 12 minutes per
game this past season with the Detroit Pistons, but he still shows some potential. He shot 34%
from three on low volume. 90% of his threes were from above the break, adding more value as
those are harder to make threes than from the corners. His other real skills on offense are playing
the roll man in the pick and roll and playing in the post. In the post, Maker does a good job of
pinning defender on his top side and getting a pass over the top right to the rim. He is somewhat
of a black hole in the paint, so this is also a drawback. He is also good at attacking the glass on
the offensive end, specifically for put back dunks and tip ins. Maker averaged 1.4 put backs per
75 possessions. Defensively, he goes for every block as he contests 48% of rim attempts when he
was on the floor. His defense is still somewhat suspect as most of his minutes came in garbage
time. Maker is a target for his potential, not for instant on court impact.

Trade Scenarios
1. Indiana Pacers
Pacers Receive: Zach Collins, Trevor Ariza
Suns Receive: Myles Turner
In this deal, the Portland Trailblazers upgrades their frontcourt while maintaining their bubble
rotation. Zach Collins is due for an extension next offseason. Instead of dealing with other
franchises raising the price on him, Portland flips him for Myles Turner. The 24-year-old has
seen his role and production decline in Indiana each season since 2017, and a change of scenery
is needed. In Portland, Turner figures to come off the bench as a stellar backup center but should
log minutes alongside Jusuf Nurkic as Portland tinkered with an ultra-sized lineup of Nurkic and
Hassan Whiteside in the bubble. For Indiana, this deal makes a lot of sense for them with Justin
Holiday entering free agency. Indiana will need another defensive minded wing, and Trevor
Ariza fills that role. Collins complements All-Star Domantas Sabonis well on offense as he can
space the floor.

2. Indiana Pacers
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Pacers Receive: Trevor Ariza 2020 1st Round Pick (16th overall)
Suns Receive: T.J. Warren
In this trade, The Trailblazers add the bubble MVP and a reliable third scoring option to their
already potent offense. TJ Warren enjoyed a successful 2019-20 campaign, scoring nearly 20
points per game on great efficiency. Warren shot well from three (40.3% on over three attempts
per contest) and spectacular on twos (57.5% on 11.5 attempts). Warren is a bit of a throwback,
taking over 70% of his attempts from inside the arc and over 40% from the mid-range. His three-
level scoring will allow Portland to get more open looks for their star backcourt of Damian
Lillard and CJ McCollum. For Indiana, this deal gets them a top 20 selection in the draft and a
veteran 3&D wing on an expiring deal in Ariza. For Indiana, this makes sense because Warren
will be entering a contract year and Indiana may not want to pay the wing a near max deal. This
trade allows them to gain some value on the wing instead of just losing him for nothing next
offseason.

3. Indiana Pacers
Pacers Receive: Trevor Ariza, Rodney Hood, Anfernee Simons,
Nassir Little, 2020 1st Round Pick (16th overall)
Suns Receive: Julius Randle, Kevin Knox, 2020 1st Round Pick
27th overall)
This deal shakes up Portland’s rotation quite a bit, but they are getting a clear upgrade in Julius
Randle. Randle is a polarizing player, as many mark him with a scarlet letter due to his
unwillingness on the defensive end of the court. Randle has struggled on defense his entire
career, but in Portland, he could benefit from a change of scenery and a winning culture.
Portland would most likely insert him into the starting lineup at the four alongside Jusuf Nurkic,
but their options with him when Nurkic goes to the bench would be most interesting. If Randle
could prove to be average on the defensive side of the floor, Portland would be major winners.
Kevin Knox is a young and frankly unproven piece for the New York Knicks and would most
likely take on a role at the end of the Trailblazers rotation. One positive for Knox is that Portland
is respected in player development and their trademark is not rushing prospects. This lower stress
environment could benefit Knox and allow him to live up to the billing many gave him when he
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was drafted by New York. For the Knicks, this deal allows them to add solid young pieces, a top
20 selection, and an expiring contract that will not affect any future plans.
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SACRAMENTO KINGS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
LXXIX. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 12
b. Round 2: Picks 37, 42 and 52
LXXX. Team Needs
a. Young Wing Talent/ Versatile defensive minded players
i. Sacramento ranked in the bottom half of the league in defensive
rating, and they lack any promising young talent a the 3 (small
forward position).
b. Active Forward
i. Sacramento ranked 25th in the league in defensive rebounds per
game & 27th in blocks per game. They need to acquire a young
defensive minded big in the draft or during free agency.
LXXXI. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Kings Free Agency
XXXVII. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
a. Which options do we let go
b. Whose options are worth picking up
XXXVIII. Free Agent Targets
XXXIX. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 12
Choice #1
Saddiq Bey 21 yrs old, F, Villanova
6’8 215lbs; 6’11” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 16.1 PPG; 4.7 RPG; 2.4 APG; 0.8
STL; 1.5 TO; 47.7% FG; 45.1% 3FG

Saddiq Bey is an established offensive talent. He


has a versatile play style, combining a midpost
game, three-point shooting, and playmaking. He
struggles at times to fully utilize his frame,
especially in that midpost area. On the defensive
end, Bey is average at best. His athleticism as well
as his age may hold him back.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Capable of taking over spot ball handling • Below average athlete
responsibilities • Does not do a great job of creating space
• Plus shooter off the catch • Avoids contact
• Creative midpost scorer • Not a defensive playmaker
• Finishes well below the rim • Defensive IQ may be overstated
• Intelligent team defender • Bad hips, gets beat downhill in POA
NBA Comparison: DeMarre Carroll, Harrison Barnes
 Saddiq Bey has potential to be used as both the ballhandler and the screener in the
pick and pop. His versatility could also provide opportunities to utilize switches and
take advantage of mismatches. Bey could also see post mismatches, allowing him to
get off his faceup jump shot. There is real concern about his defensive potential due
to his lack of vertical and lateral burst. He will not ever be a playmaker on this end of
the floor, but he could be capable at some point in his career.
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Choice #2
Patrick Williams 19 yrs old. F, FSU
6’8 225lbs; 6’11 Wingspan
2019-20 (29 games): 9.2 PPG; 4.0 RPG; 1.0 APG; 1.0
STL; 1.0 BLK; 1.7 TO; 45.9% FG; 32.0% 3FG

Patrick Williams is a raw prospect that has lofty


projections on the defensive end of the floor and
has shown the potential to score in multiple
ways on the offensive end. He can become a
solid contributor on both ends.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Great feel for the game • Translation of three-point shooting,
• Cuts well off the ball, slips screens well footwork is main mechanical issue
• Nice touch around the rim • Low free throw percentage
• Great handle for a bigger wing • Average burst out of first step
• Can screen and ball handle in the PnR • Right hand dominant
• Plus shooter off the dribble mid-range • Tries to do too much at times
• Physical defender, solid athlete • Top tier athletes can beat him downhill
• Shown added strength over past year
NBA Comparison: Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker & O.G. Anunboy
 Patrick Williams comes into the league with an NBA ready frame. On offense, he
projects as a three or small four with potential to facilitate in low volume situations.
He is versatile in the pick and roll, with potential to be the ball handler or screener.
A swing skill for him is his first step in POA actions, because he can already finish
above defenders off the dribble. On defense, he has the size, but his footwork as
well as quick twitch burst is questionable.
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Choice #3
Precious Achiuwa 21 yrs old, F, Memphis
6’9 225lbs; 7’2 Wingspan
2019-20: 15.8 PPG; 10.8 RPG; 1.0 APG; 1.1 STL; 1.9
BLK; 49.3% FG; 32% 3FG (40 attempts)

Precious Achiuwa’s athletic ability is off the


charts along with a great ability to handle the ball
for a big man. His energy throughout the season
was infectious. He is a prototypical small ball
center who flashed the ability to shoot the ball.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Highest motor player in the draft, going to • Raw offensively and lacks disciplined
give 110% on every play footwork
• Explosive, physical, thick body; high • Needs improvement on both his shooting
ability to finish through contact and with form and his footwork
aggression • Below average moving laterally and
• Runs the floor well in transition positioning
• Great ability to handle the ball for his size • Poor shot selection, streaky shooter
• Strong on the defensive end, defensive • Poor free throw shooter
playmaker who can guard 2-5 • Quick to pick up his dribble

NBA Comparison: Montrezl Harrell, Draymond Green, John Collins


 Precious Achiuwa ranked 2nd in the American in put back scoring (3.0 PPG), ranked 2nd
in the American in cut scoring (3.2 PPG), and ranked 3rd in the American in roll man
scoring (1.8 PPG). His growth as a playmaker and transformation to an all-around talent
throughout the season shows great promise.
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ROUND 2 PICK 37
Choice #1
Robert Woodard 21 yrs old, F, Mississippi
State
6’7 235lbs; 7’1” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 Games): 11.4 PPG; 6.5 RPG; 1.3 APG; 1.1
STL; 1.9 TO; 49.5% FG; 42.9% 3FG

Robert Woodard took a huge jump from his


freshman to sophomore season. He shows
potential as a 3&D player. He is a high IQ
defender that showed value as a playmaker.

Strengths Weaknesses
• 3&D potential • Low volume from three
• Defensive playmaker (70 attempts, 3PTr of 25.5)
• 3PT% raised 15% from fr. to soph. • Poor free throw shooter (64%)
• Great NBA size frame • Turns the ball over frequently
• Cuts well off the ball (0.7:1.0 AST:TO)
• Attacks the offensive glass • Size could be a detriment when guarding
• Good isolation defender (0.67 PPP) quicker guards

• Potential as a defensive playmaker • Not an on-ball creator


NBA Comparison: PJ Tucker, Shawn Marion
 Robert Woodard’s increased three-point percentage and volume put him on NBA radars.
That combined with his size makes him a legitimate prospect. As the NBA trends to
smaller lineups, Woodard could be looked at as a small ball four or five in extreme cases.
He may struggle at times to guard perimeter players at the next level. His career will
mainly rely on how well his shooting translates.
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Choice #2
Vernon Carey Jr 19 yrs old, F/C, Duke
6’10 270lbs
2019-20 (31 Games): 17.8 PPG; 8.8 RPG; 1.0 APG; 0.7
STL; 2.0 TO; 57.7% FG; 38.1% 3FG

Vernon Carey would be a top 10 pick 10 years


ago. Unfortunately for him the league is trending
away from back to the basket ‘bigs’ and are
instead looking for players who can defend in
space and stretch the floor. Carey could still
provide a team with tremendous offensive
efficiency and energy rebounding.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Ability to catch and rip past defenders from the • Struggles on defense
elbow/post • Slow defender/ not an aware
• Athletic & coordinated pick n’ roller defender/will struggle to defend in
• Strong frame space
• Rim running • Long/ slow set shot
• Confident low post scorer • Poor vision
• Limited shooting range
• Blackhole on offense
NBA Comparison: Jahlil Okafor, Enes Kanter
 Vernon Carey is a brute down low. He crushes undersized 4’s & 5’s on the offensive
end but defensively really struggles to keep up. He will need to rework his long set
shot and become a more consistent from deep otherwise he will clog the floor for
NBA teams.
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Choice #3
Mason Jones 22 yrs old, G, Arkansas
6’5 200lbs
2019-20 (31 games): 22.0 PPG; 5.5 RPG; 3.4 APG; 1.6
STL; 3.2 TO; 45.3% FG; 35.1% 3FG

Mason Jones played juco ball before transferring


to Arkansas. He is a three-level scorer that can
generate buckets at will. He can make tough
shots off the dribble. He has potential to be a
PNR initiator. On defense, he is at his best when
guarding off the ball. He is limited by his
athleticism and age.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Three-level scorer • Limited athleticism
• Draws fouls at an extremely high rate • Age limits his ceiling
(0.668 FTr) • Forces turnovers, may improve with
• Uses his body well when attacking the rim smaller offensive role
• Creates space with sidestep and triple • Does not add value in rotations to the rim
threat moves • Quiet on defense
• Reads passing lanes well on defense
• Active defender on the ball
NBA Comparison: Fred VanVleet, Lou Williams
 Mason Jones is an immediate impact player as a scoring guard off the bench. He
operates as an on-ball scorer that can shoot off the dribble from deep and attack the
rim. He will be able to rely on his ability to draw fouls when he gets to the next level.
On defense, the goal is for him to be average. He will struggle to guard pick and roll
actions as well as point of attack, while having the foundational off-ball principles
down.
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Round 2 Pick 42 & 52


Choice #1
Xavier Tillman 21 yrs old, C, Michigan State
6’8 245lbs; 7’1” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 13.7 PPG; 10.3 RPG; 3.0 APG; 2.1
BLK; 2.0 TO; 55.0% FG; 26.0% 3FG

Xavier Tillman is an undersized big man who can


score in the post and off cuts to the rim. He is an
above average passer. Defensively, he is
extremely intelligent and excels in most defensive
disciplines. His ceiling is capped by his age, lack
of shooting, and explosiveness.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Creative screener, sets hard picks • Consistency issues on jump shot
• Good scorer on off-ball cuts • Undersized center
• Good passer in short roll out of PNR • Not very mobile or athletic
• Extremely strong, high motor • Age is a ceiling limiter
• Vocal defender • Not much of a shot creator off the dribble
• Can switch when defending PNR
NBA Comparison: Derrick Favors, Khem Birch
 Xavier Tillman has a high floor and a rather low ceiling. He is a hard-working role
player who gets his teammates open with hard screens in unique locations and
actions. He will be a capable big in the PNR as he can finish around the rim or create
for other in the short roll. He will not offer floor spacing by any means. He is an
excellent defender but is undersized and is not very explosive. Off the court, Tillman
is one the best prospects in this class.
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Choice #2
Jalen Harris 22 yrs old, PG, Nevada
6’5 195lbs
2019-20 (30 games): 21.7 PPG; 6.5 RPG; 2.9 APG; 1.1
STL; 44.6% FG; 36.2% 3FG

Jalen Harris fits into the late second round as a


sparkplug off the bench. He excels on the
offensive end of the floor as a three-level scorer
and creator for others out of the pick and roll. He
is a mixed bag on defense.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Solid touch around the rim • Inconsistent shooter off the catch, should
• Makes the simple read in the PNR be used primarily on the ball
• Top level scorer in isolation and PNR • Questionable reads at times in PNR
• Shows flashes of team defense rotations • Struggles guarding POA
and tags • Inconsistent on defense, even lazy at
• Shows intelligence on defense when times when guarding PNR
chasing shooters off of screening actions • Gets beat downhill frequently
• Decent change of speed, acceleration
NBA Comparison: Trey Burke, Austin Rivers
 Jalen Harris has value as a creator in bench rotations. His scoring is by far his top
skill as he can score from three, midrange, and the paint. His age is an issue as there
is not much room to develop, but he is a finished project that can step into an NBA
rotation. He would fit in well with a contender who needs cheap rotation players.
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Choice #3
Jordan Nwora 22 yrs old, F, Louisville
6’7 225lbs; 22 Years Old
2019-20 (31 games): 18.0 PPG; 7.7 RPG; 1.3 APG; 0.3
BLK; 44.0% FG; 40.2% 3FG

Jordan Nwora’s draft stock may be higher this year


than in previous year’s due to the three-point heavy
style of the league & his ability to stretch the floor
and knock down the catch and shoot the three with
consistency. He is far from the best athlete in this
draft, but he has enough athleticism to have some
defensive versatility. He will struggle to create his
own shot in the league which limits his overall
potential.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Shooting/ Quick Release • Below average athlete
• Spatially aware player • Not great at creating his shot
• Size translates to versatility • Weak/ poor finishing
• Elite Catch & shoot • Average ballhandler
• Solid moving shooter/ Pin downs, • Average passing ability
DHO’s, flares, pick n’ pops.
• Run’s shooting lanes in transition
NBA Comparison: Cameron Johnson, Rodney Hood
 Jordan Nwora’s offensive production will rely on other abilities to get him open, and
his consistency knocking down catch and shoot threes. Similar to Cameron Johnson,
he has deep range and a limited ability to create his own shot. Defensively and
athletically, he resembles of Rodney Hood, usually in the right place but does not
have the talent to be a defensive playmaker.
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Choice #4
Mamadi Diakite 23 yrs old, PF, Virginia
6’9 224lbs; 7’3 ½” Wingspan
2019-20 (30 games): 13.7 PPG; 6.8 RPG; 0.6 APG; 1.3
BLK; 47.8% FG; 36.4% 3FG

Mamadi Diakite should be put into both pick


and pop and spot up situations in the NBA. He
has shown improvements in shooting. He is a
high IQ team defender that can defend the four
and five. He does a good job of contesting
shots.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Improved shooting, good form, and soft • Struggles as a passer (1:3 AST:TO)
touch • Poor ball handler, cannot create his own
• Active second jumper, attacks the shot off the dribble
offensive glass • Good defender at multiple facets, not
• Very simplistic offensive game great in one specific area
• Quick hips and good defensive footwork • Needs to continue to add strength
• Good technique in the post • Not confident in his ability to consistently
• Uses length well on closeouts switch the PNR
NBA Comparison: Ersan Illyasova, Meyers Leonard, Marreese Speights
 Diakite’s NBA role will be as a stretch five. He needs to offer consistent three point
shooting off the catch, as well as the ability to play the big in the pick and roll/pop.
He fits in well to a low usage spacing role. Defensively, he shows some versatility,
but struggles to be excellent in any specific area. His length is a huge plus on this end
of the floor.
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Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Nate Hinton, 21 years old, 6’5, Houston
2. Caleb Homesley, 23 years old, 6’6, Liberty
3. CJ Elleby, 20 years old, 6’6, Washington State

Kings Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Kent Bazemore $19,269,662
2. Alex Len $4,160,000
3. Yogi Ferrell $3,150,000
4. Harry Giles III $2,578,800
5. Corey Brewer $183,155
II. Player Option
1. Jabari Parker $6,500,000
III. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Nemanja Bjelica $7,150,00
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($302,677)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $21,314,126

Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Kent Bazemore (Projected $4,000,000-$7,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 78%]
Kent Bazemore provides a team with solid scoring and defense. This past season
Bazemore averaged 10.3 points with Sacramento in 25 games. His shooting has never
been consistent enough to be labeled as a shooter, but he is someone who can knock it
down off the catch (60%) and is given respect by defenders (58th percentile in shooting
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gravity amongst wings). He is a career mid 30% three-point shooter. At this point in
his career, he probably does not have very much room for improvement. Bazemore is
coming off the last year of a four year $70 million-dollar contract. At 31 years old and
with his lack of improvement over the length of that contract, he will see significantly
less money this offseason. With Sacramento being so far away from contending, his
roster spot should be used to develop younger talent.
2. Yogi Ferrell (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 86.2%]
Yogi Ferrell’s minutes were cut in half this past season from his previous season with
Sacramento as his role was to be an insurance policy for De’Aaron Fox and Cory
Joseph. This may indicate the Ferrell is heading out of Sacramento. With Ferrell aging
and his usage decreasing, he may not garner much interest around the league.
3. Corey Brewer (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 18.4%]
Brewer’s time in the league may have reached the end. He only played 33 minutes this
past season and appeared in only 36 games over the past two seasons. Brewer has only
made 45 total threes in the past three seasons. In a league that requires the ability to
knock down threes as a complementary player, Brewer does not prove much value to
any team. Especially with his defensive ability declining with age.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Jabari Parker (Player Option $6,500,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 73.2%]
Jabari Parker, the former second pick in the 2014 draft, still has a lot of improvement
to make to reach expectations. The league has transitioned to a smaller league and that
may benefit’s Parker’s size and style. Parker’s has a good offensive skillset within the
key, but if he wants to elevate his game to the next level, he will need to develop a
three-point shot. He currently struggles to shoot from deep at he shot 27.1% off the
catch (12th percentile amongst wings). He is currently a plus on offense in post
isolations. He put up 1.06 PPP (83rd percentile amongst wings) in these actions. 20%
of his half-court offense came from these post actions. There is a high chance Parker
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accepts his player option because he will not get multi-year offers upwards of $6.5
million. With Sacramento’s current state of acquiring & developing young talent,
Parker fits their timeline.
2. Alex Len (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 90.7%]
A midseason trade landed Alex Len in Sacramento, in which Sacramento gave up 2nd
round picks in return for him & Parker. In Len’s 15 games played with Sacramento he
had a plus/minus of +1.4. This was the first team Len has played on in which he
recorded a positive plus minus, despite its small sample size, Len & Sacramento mix
well and the two should and will reach a deal on a new contract.
3. Harry Giles III (Projected $3,000,000-$6,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 64.9%]
Harry Giles has not carved out a very big role with Sacramento during his tenure. In
his two seasons he did not break 15 minutes per game. However, over those two
seasons Harry Giles has improved his free throw shooting by a near 15% from 63.7%
to 77.6% this past season. He could develop into an average perimeter shooter due to
this progression. Besides his free throw shooting and obvious impressive skillset at
6’10, Giles has not proven much and most of his stock is potential related. Sacramento
needs to create a plan where Giles gets more run and develops a perimeter game
before his raw skill goes to waste.
4. Nemanja Bjelica (Non-Guaranteed $7,150,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 81.6%]
Bjelica is one of the league’s best pure stretch 4’s. In his last three seasons, he shot
over 40% from three with a three-point rate of 0.49. However, at 32 years old, Bjelica
and Sacramento are a few years apart in terms of progression. Bjelica will look for big
money in the 2021 offseason (granted he shoots the ball well for a fourth consecutive
year), and Sacramento will be willing to let him walk if he receives a large offer due to
his fit with Sacramento’s timeline. Regardless Bjelica will be back in Sacramento
hoisting threes this coming season.
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Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Nerlens Noel 6’10 220 26 years old, C/PF, Current Salary: $2,028,594
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000-$10,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 48.4%
Noel is a rim running big who provides good rim protection. His offensive game is extremely
limited, this past season 61% of his field goals came from 0-3ft from the hoop. He relies on
others to create for him, lob opportunities, pick n’ rolls to the rim, and running the floor. This
season marked his career best VORP of 1.5 & his career best win shares of 5.

Option #2:
Derrick Favors 6’9 265lbs 29 years old, C/PF, Current Salary: $17,650,000
Projected Annual Salary: $8,000,000-$12,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 66.1%
Derrick Favors adds value as a play finishing big who attacks the glass. Favors is not a floor
spacer on offense, instead being more of a finisher around the rim. He finishes well with contact
(70.6% FG% at the rim) and has an adequate hook shot. He is also a capable passer, finishing the
last three seasons with a plus AST/TO ratio. He saves a lot of plays on the offensive glass (4.7
ORB per 75 possessions, 91st percentile) for kickouts to shooters. He also is an elite force on the
defensive glass. That may have been a little exaggerated with New Orleans as he did not have
much help as far as bigs go, but he showed the same ability for most of his career. He is not
much of a deterrent as a rim defender but shows versatility as a perimeter defender. He reads
passing lanes surprisingly well for a big and shows a propensity for going after loose balls. Every
public advanced metric love Favors as a big who finishes well, rebounds, and can guard in space.

Option #3:
Mason Plumlee 6’11 254lbs 30 years old, C, Current Salary: $14,041,096
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000- $10,000,000
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Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 32.6%


Mason Plumlee is an energy rebounder with sneaky good passing ability. Sacramento needs
someone who can come in and to provide rebounding and interior defense. Plumlee could be the
perfect 5 to complement the Kings undersized stretch bigs on their roster. Plumlee could make a
big jump in Sacramento where he would receive more opportunity then his previous stops. At 30
years old, he probably will not be their number one target this offseason, but Plumlee is a reliable
backup plan if other options fall through.

Option #4:
Torrey Craig 6’7 220lbs, 29 years old, SF, Current Salary: $2,000,000
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000- $6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 0.3%
Torrey Craig is slashing defensive minded wing. He is exceptional at finishing around the rim at
73.9%, even though it was on low volume (3.3 attempts per 75 possessions). He has rather poor
shot selection from three, with only 15% of his threes being considered open even though he
does not provide much gravity as a wing. Even with that, he was average as far as efficiency
goes with a TS% of 56% and 1.04 PPP in spot up situations. He is a poor play maker, not adding
much value there. He is in the top tier of wings when it comes to crashing the offensive glass. He
averaged 2 offensive rebounds per 75 possessions and did a great job of chasing loose balls and
long rebounds. On the defensive end of the floor, his role is to guard top tier creators and be a
pest when chasing off the ball. He can add value as a lengthy defender when guarding the one
and two. He is a slightly below average player on offense and is impactful on the defensive end.

Option #5:
Josh Jackson 6’8 210lbs, 23 years old, SF/SG, Current Salary: $7,059,480
Projected Annual Salary: $2,000,000-$4,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 97.6%
Josh Jackson has struggled during his time in the NBA. He flashed enough potential at Kansas to
make him a top five pick in the draft. A veteran locker room presence may be key to his long-
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term career aspirations. From a statistical perspective, he had negative win shares both of his first
two seasons but turned that around in his third season in extremely low volume. He has not had
any success on the offensive end of the floor, shooting 29.8% from three and 57% percent at the
rim. He is not much of a playmaker either. He still needs to find his role on offense. On the
defensive side of the ball, he has started to show some potential. Memphis had him spend a lot of
time guarding primary creators. He showed some versatility, spending significant time guarding
the one through four. He showed flashes of reading passing lanes as well. Jackson needs to get
some live action reps. There is some real potential for him on defense.

Trade Scenarios
1. Chicago Bulls
Bulls Receiving: Nemanja Bjelica, Harrison Barnes, 2020 2nd
Round Pick (43rd overall), 2020 2nd Round Pick (52nd overall)
Kings Receiving: Otto Porter Jr, Chandler Hutchinson
This trade gives the Sacramento Kings the best player in the deal and the ability to right a
previous wrong. Sacramento extended Harrison Barnes this past offseason, and the 28-year-old
just has not found a fit with the Sacramento Kings. Barnes is far better suited to play the four in
today’s NBA, but Sacramento has a logjam at the position, hurting his production on defense and
his ability to get to the rim on offense. Barnes shot a pedestrian 35.6% on corner threes and could
benefit from a move out of Sacramento. Nemanja Bjelica is a solid player that has turned himself
into one of the better stretch fours in the league. Bjelica is dealt here because Otto Porter Jr
would take most of his minutes, and then the rest would go to the young Marvin Bagley, pending
on his health. Porter is the best asset in this deal and entering the last year of his deal before his
player option. He is a far better option at the three for Sacramento. Sacramento’s roster will fit
together better after this deal, and hopefully they can see some positive results going forward.

2. Boston Celtics
Celtics Receiving: Richaun Holmes
Kings Receiving: Enes Kanter, Robert Williams
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In this trade, Sacramento cashes in on Richaun Holmes’ production last season and gain an
impressive youngster in Robert Williams. Holmes had a bit of a breakout year last season, and
his value is at an all-time high. Holmes started 38 games for Sacramento and averaged a near
double-double (12.3 ppg and 8.1 rpg) in just 28 minutes of action. Holmes finally gave validation
to many that have raved over his athleticism and energy, proving to be a consistent rim protector
on defense and vertical floor spacer on offense. Boston needs someone with his characteristics
and he figures to sure up the deficiencies they experienced in the bubble. Sacramento gets an
expiring deal in Enes Kanter, who can be flipped later in next season or retained as an extra big
man off the bench. Williams is the real return for Sacramento though, as the 23-year-old is
coming off a promising sophomore season and is under team control for another two full
seasons.

3. Detroit Pistons
Pistons Receiving: Cory Joseph, 2020 2nd Round Pick (35th
overall)
Kings Receiving: Khyri Thomas
This deal gives Sacramento more cap flexibility. Cory Joseph is yet to live up to the deal he
signed with Sacramento last summer. Detroit is one of the few teams in the league with real cap
space going into this offseason, and with the 35th selection attached, this deal should get done.
Joseph could be shipped to Detroit, and they could attempt to reestablish some value before
being dealt to a contender in need of a veteran point guard or (with his 2021-21 contract
unguaranteed) bought out sometime next March or April.
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SAN ANTONIO SPURS


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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
LXXXII. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 11
b. Round 2: Pick 41
LXXXIII. Draft Needs
a. 3&D Wing
i. The Spurs have begun to grow their next generation of talent
with Dejounte Murray and Lonnie Walker IV. In this spot they
would look to add another player who fits the Spurs mantra to
move the ball, play defense, and spread the floor.
b. Experienced Player
i. Look for the Spurs to add an experienced college player with
years under his belt, maturity and honed in skills
LXXXIV. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Spurs Free Agency
XL. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
a. Which options do we let go
b. Whose options are worth picking up
XLI. Free Agent Targets
XLII. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 11
Choice #1
Devin Vassell 19 yrs old, G/F, FSU
6’7 190lbs; 6’9 ¼ Wingspan
2019-20: 12.7 PPG; 5.1 RPG; 1.6 APG; 1.4
STL; 0.8 TO; 49.0% FG; 41.5% 3FG

Devin Vassell is a 3&D prototype. He


is an efficient shooter off the catch as
well as a defensive playmaker. He has
shown flashes of offensive facilitation
as well.

Strengths Weaknesses
• NBA ready defender, long/lengthy frame • Skinny frame, needs to add weight
• Effort player; never gives up on a play, • Lacks speed and quickness to blow by
threat to make chase down plays in defenders
transition • Lacks a variety of ball handling moves
• Fronts the post well • Not a proficient ball handler
• Shoots 3p at high %, high release point • Can be risk taker on defense, relies on
• Runs floor aggressive on fast break length to recover
• Ability to facilitate the ball even not being • Quicker guards can get past his hips
primary ball handler
NBA Comparison: Khris Middleton, Robert Covington, Mikal Bridges
 Devin Vassell made improvements his shooting ability from freshman to sophomore
year. He has improved his offensive game tremendously and his continual effort on both
ends of the floors shows his determination, maturity, and readiness to play and impact the
next level immediately. With the undersized frame his biggest concern is his ability to
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gain weight, but his length is a huge plus for NBA wings on the defensive end of the
floor.

Choice #2
Aaron Nesmith 21 yrs old, SG, Vanderbilt
6’6 215lbs; 6’11 Wingspan
2019-20 (14 games): 23.0 PPG; 4.9 RPG; 0.9 APG; 1.4
STL; 1.7 TO; 51.2% FG; 52.2% 3FG

Aaron Nesmith is a floor spacing wing. During


his sophomore year, he was an elite shooter
from behind the three-point line. He is limited in
other parts of his offensive game such as his
playmaking. Defensively, he uses his wingspan
well and works well off the ball. Injury concerns
will most likely not carry forward as there is
little risk for reinjury with a stress fracture.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Floor spacing and shooting • Limited as an on-ball scorer
• Shoots well off of motion, low volume • Court awareness, basic passing reads
• Squares up well to the rim • Lack of spatial awareness
• Decent shot selection, uses side step well • Does not move well laterally
• Solid packline defender off-ball • Will get attacked in POA
• Makes good rotations, can take charges • Extremely flat footed
• Solid frame for a wing, length and size • Poor defender in PNR
NBA Comparison: Cameron Johnson, Buddy Hield
 Aaron Nesmith is a lottery prospect because of his three-point shooting. His volume
and efficiency was literally off the charts. A full season at this level would have
moved him up draft boards, but due to a stress fracture he was not around for SEC
play. He fits well into the archetype of a 3&D wing, especially if he can improve
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his hips and footwork. He would be a good fit with a contender as he can step in
and space the floor.

Choice #3
Patrick Williams 19 yrs old, F, FSU
6’8 225lbs; 6’11 Wingspan
2019-20 (29 games): 9.2 PPG; 4.0 RPG; 1.0 APG; 1.0
STL; 1.0 BLK; 1.7 TO; 45.9% FG; 32.0% 3FG

Patrick Williams is a raw prospect that has lofty


projections on the defensive end of the floor and
has shown the potential to score in multiple
ways on the offensive end. He can become a
solid contributor on both ends.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Great feel for the game • Translation of three-point shooting,
• Cuts well off the ball, slips screens well footwork is main mechanical issue
• Nice touch around the rim • Low free throw percentage
• Great handle for a bigger wing • Average burst out of first step
• Can screen and ball handle in the PnR • Right hand dominant
• Plus shooter off the dribble mid-range • Tries to do too much at times
• Physical defender, solid athlete • Top tier athletes can beat him downhill
• Shown added strength over past year
NBA Comparison: Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker & O.G. Anunboy
 Patrick Williams comes into the league with an NBA ready frame. On offense, he
projects as a three or small four with potential to facilitate in low volume situations.
He is versatile in the pick and roll, with potential to be the ball handler or screener.
A swing skill for him is his first step in POA actions, because he can already finish
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above defenders off the dribble. On defense, he has the size, but his footwork as
well as quick twitch burst is questionable.

ROUND 2 PICK 41
Choice #1
Paul Reed 21 yrs old, F/C, DePaul
6’9 220lbs; 7’2” Wingspan
2019-20 (29 games): 15.1 PPG; 10.7 RPG; 1.6
APG; 2.6 BLK; 2.3 TO; 51.6% FG; 30.8% 3FG

Paul Reed is a defense first player. He is an


athletic force that can make plays on that
end of the floor. He averaged 4.5 BLK/STL
per game. Offensively, he is at his best in
transition but struggles in the half court.
Motor and effort are huge issues for Reed.
He is a great defender and hustle player
when he is locked in.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Finishes well around the rim • Does not care for setting screens
• Excels in transition • Low motor off the ball
• Spot up shooting in small volume • Inconsistent shooting mechanics
• Offensive rebounding • Poor shot selection
(11.1% ORB% and 3.3 per game) • Gets caught ball watching on defense and
• Rim protection hunting for steals / blocks
• (9.7% BLK% and 2.6 per game) • Gets into foul trouble
• Held defense • Needs to add size
NBA Comparison: Cheick Diallo, Jonathan Isaac
 Paul Reed has a high ceiling as a defensive force that can make plays at the rim and in
passing lanes. On offense, his ceiling is being a capable three-point shooter off the
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catch. His effort and care for the game is a huge swing skill. He must consistently set
hard screens on offense and make correct rotations on defense. Foul trouble could
also follow him throughout his career if he chases blocks.

Choice #2
Elijah Hughes 22 yrs old G, Syracuse
6’6 215lbs; 6’10” Wingspan
2019-20: 19.0 PPG; 4.9 RPG; 3.4 APG; 1.2 STL; 2.3
TO; 42.7% FG; 34.2% 3FG

Hughes is a translatable volume shooter. He


may struggle to create space off the dribble.
On defense, he could struggle to guard on the
ball early in his career, while being a decent
defender in passing lanes.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Shooter from three and midrange, solid • Injury history (hand, groin, concussion)
form except knee rotation • Questions of if he is mentally committed
• Draws fouls at a high rate, uses fakes (3 high schools, 2 colleges, struggled to
well be NCAA eligible)
• Plays up to his competition • Struggles to create shots at the rim
• Team defense, vocal leader on backside • Basic passing reads, plays hero ball of
• Good shot blocker as secondary the PNR
defender, charge taker • Lacks explosion
• Showed statistical improvement over his • Low motor on defense, does not attack
career the glass at all
NBA Comparison: Dwayne Bacon, Jordan Poole
 Elijah Hughes needs to be a microwave scorer if he wants a spot in this league.
Adding an ability to create space off the dribble will make him a much more desirable
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prospect. His shooting is elite for a prospect even though his percentages do not show
it. On defense, he has to be a high effort player that does everything.

Choice #3
Udoka Azubuike 21 yrs old, C, Kansas
7’0 260lbs; 7’7” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 13.7 PPG; 10.5 RPG; 0.9 APG;
2.6 BLK; 74.8% FG; 0% 3FG

Udoka Azubuike is a force in the paint. His


play style is that of a traditional five that
dunks, rebounds, and blocks shots. An NBA
ready frame is an understatement, as he has
shed 20 pounds of excess weight and boasts
the best wingspan in the class.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Great NBA frame • Low ceiling due to limited scoring
• Best finisher around the rim in NCAA potential outside of paint
• +7 wingspan • Needs work guarding PNR
• Quick jumper off vert • Conditioning and injury concerns
• Great hands, can catch anything around • Free throw shooting
the rim • Black hole on offense
• Shot blocker on defense • Not a great runner

NBA Comparison: Boban Marjanovic, Rudy Gobert


 Udoka Azubuike is a raw player with the physical skills to step into a rotation. He
will be an efficient scorer around the rim due to his length and quick vertical. He will
be limited in late game situations due to his poor free throw numbers. He may
struggle on defense initially due to his limited potential as a pick and roll defender.
He will have to play in drop coverage. He may also be a player that seeks out blocked
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shots instead of the right defensive play. Conditioning will be key for him over an 82-
game season.

Undrafted Free Agent Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Marko Simonovic, 21 years old, 6’11, KK Mega Bemax
2. Nate Hinton, 21 years old, 6’5, Houston
3. Jon Teske, 23 years old, 7’1, Michigan

Spurs Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Marco Belinelli $7,600,000
2. Bryn Forbes $5,462,500
II. Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
1. Jakob Poeltl $11,264,657
2. Drew Eubanks (two-way) $1,635,652
3. Quinndary Weatherspoon (two-way) $1,549,812
III. Player Option
1. DeMar DeRozan $27,739,975
IV. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Trey Lyles $5,500,000
2. Tyler Zeller $2,436,046
3. Chimezie Metu $1,663,861
V. Dead Cap Space
1. DeMarre Carroll $6,167,887
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($10,454,716)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $26,741,794
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Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Marco Belinelli (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 85.6%]
All signs are pointing to the Spurs drafting a wing with their 11th overall pick, which
could indicate the end of Belinelli’s time in San Antonio. Belinelli has somewhat of a
down year, only averaging 6.3 PPG, 39.2% FG, 49.8% EFG he was still able to shoot
37.6% from 3. 81.9% of his shots came from beyond 16 feet. He operates off the
catch, with almost 90% of his shots being assisted. He moves well of the ball and is
used in a lot of screening actions. Outside of his ability to shoot off the dribble, there is
not much there offensively. He knows his role as a strict shooter and not a playmaker
as he had a TO% of 5.3%. On defense, he is a negative. He struggles to create
turnovers, averaging 0.2 steals and blocks combined per game. He gives some good
effort, but just does not possess the athleticism to be a plus on this end of the floor.
Even with his ability to shoot it looks like the Spurs will be drafting his replacement in
this year’s draft.
2. Chimezie Metu (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 0%]
Chimezie Metu has been a project for the Spurs since they took him in the second
round of the 2018 draft. He has only played in 47 games in two seasons while
averaging only five minutes per game. He has spent most of his time in the G-League
gaining minutes and views from the Spurs developmental staff. Metu is on an
unguaranteed contract, and the Spurts may look to offload his salary to give
themselves more flexibility.
3. Tyler Zeller (Non-Guaranteed $2,436,046)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 74.3%]
The 7-foot big man has not played consistently in the league since 2017-2018 and only
played two minutes in his time with the Spurs before the postponement of the season.
It is not likely that he will be brought back for the 2021 season.
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▪ Players to keep:
1. DeMar DeRozan (Player Option $27,739,975)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 1%]
When trading Kawhi Leonard for DeMar DeRozan prior to the 2018-19 season, the
Spurs were giving up a superstar but received an all-star player in return. DeRozan
helped lead them to the postseason in his first year in San Antonio, but after a rough
season, the Spurs found themselves in the lottery. DeRozan had a solid individual
season on the offensive end of the floor. He posted the highest true shooting
percentage of his career (60.3%). He operates frequently in the mid post. While
averaging 5.2 isolation possessions per 75 possessions (43% in the post), he posted an
effective field goal percentage of 52.4% (74th percentile amongst guards). He also does
a good job of getting downhill in point of attack situations by going at his opponents’
hip. He averaged 3.6 unassisted field goal attempts at the rim per 75 possessions (80th
percentile amongst guards). Defensively is where he struggled. He refused to give
much effort on this end of the floor. A good metric to measure effort as a perimeter
defender is three-point contests. DeRozan averaged only 2.1 three-point contests per
75 possessions (in the 1st percentile amongst guards). DeRozan will pick up his player
option to return to the San Antonio Spurs.
2. Bryn Forbes (Projected $4,000,000-$6,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 27.9%]
It was another solid season for Forbes in his second year as a starter. Forbes had an
effective field goal percentage of 54.4 percent this season, and that rose to 57 percent
off of screening actions. He is aggressive when looking for his shot in these situations.
He uses solid footwork to rotate his body toward the rim and get good looks from
three. Outside of his shooting, Forbes does not add much value. He was involved in
0.1 isolation actions per 75 possessions for a team that was isolation heavy in the
midrange. On defense, Forbes struggles to compete. At 6-feet-2-inches tall with a 6-
foot-5-inch wingspan, he is a high effort defender, as shown by his propensity for
diving for loose balls. He recovered 76 percent of loose balls, good for the 84th
percentile amongst guards. He struggled to guard the PnR (pick and roll) as he gave up
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0.95 PPP (points per possessions) when guarding ball handlers. He was scored against
in 43.9 percent of PnR actions according to NBA Stats. Forbes has become a valuable
role player. If Forbes remains on the Spurs, he will most likely be a coming off the
bench next season.
3. Jakob Poeltl (Projected $5,000,000-$10,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 66.6%]
As one of the secondary pieces of the Kawhi Leonard trade two seasons ago, Jakob
Poeltl has been a valuable piece on this Spurs team. In his two seasons in San Antonio,
Poeltl averaged 17 minutes per game and was a plus roll man in the Spurs offense. He
averaged 3.6 screen assists per game, which finished top 25 in the NBA. Poeltl
averaged 5.7 total rebounds and finished in the 94th percentile in rebounding
positioning, showing his ability to attack the glass. His adjusted offensive rebounding
success rate was at 49.5% ranking in the 83rd percentile, showing his willingness to
attack the offensive glass fighting for additional offensive possessions. The 25-year-
old still has value and can continue to develop on a team with a great player
development program. Despite the offers he could receive from other teams
throughout free agency, San Antonio would be smart to offer Poeltl a competitive deal
to bring him back and continue grooming him as part of the future in the organization.
4. Trey Lyles (Non-Guaranteed $5,500,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 64%]
Former Kentucky standout, Trey Lyles, was a pleasant surprise in his first season in
San Antonio. Lyles started in all but 10 games this past season for the Spurs, providing
a solid stat line of 20 minutes per game, 6.4 points, and 5.7 rebounds while shooting
38.7% from three-point range. For a stretch big, Lyles was extremely impressive in his
three-point shooting. He shot 40% on pull up threes as well as 46% from the corner.
These numbers ranked him in the 81st percentile for pullups and 84th percentile from
the corner. Lyles is also a tenacious rebounder finishing in the 80th percentile for
offensive rebounding positioning and in the top percentile in defensive rebounding
positioning. Defensively, Lyles averaged 4.5 three-point contests per 75 possessions
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ranking him in the 78th percentile across the league. Lyles was a very pleasant surprise
for the San Antonio Spurs this past season.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Patrick Patterson 6’8 235lbs 32 years old, PF, Current Salary: $1,620,564
Projected Annual Salary: League Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 34.5%
Patrick Patterson is a valuable stretch four that adds great value from behind the three-point line.
Last season, Patterson shot 39.0% from behind the arc, 40.4% from the corner, and 39.4% on
catch and shoot threes. Patterson knows his role being a locker room presence and a late
rotational player on a contending team. He takes quality shots and does not force himself into
shooting a shot he is not confident in. Defensively he does not add much in terms of playmaking
but is capable in off-ball situations.

Option #2:
Josh Jackson 6’8 210lbs, 23 years old, SF/SG, Current Salary: $7,059,480
Projected Annual Salary: $2,000,000-$4,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 97.6%
Josh Jackson has struggled during his time in the NBA. He flashed enough potential at Kansas to
make him a top five pick in the draft. A veteran locker room presence may be key to his long-
term career aspirations. From a statistical perspective, he had negative win shares both of his first
two seasons but turned that around in his third season in extremely low volume. He has not had
any success on the offensive end of the floor, shooting 29.8% from three and 57% percent at the
rim. He is not much of a playmaker either. He still needs to find his role on offense. On the
defensive side of the ball, he has started to show some potential. Memphis had him spend a lot of
time guarding primary creators. He showed some versatility, spending significant time guarding
the one through four. He showed flashes of reading passing lanes as well. Jackson needs to get
some live action reps. There is some real potential for him on defense.
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Option #3:
Alex Len 7’0 250lbs, 27 years old, C, Current Salary: $4,160,000
Projected Annual Salary: League Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 90.7%
Alex Len is a solid 7-footer who provides great rim protection on the defensive end. When Len
was the primary rim defender, opponents shot 15.7% worse than expected, ranking in the 93rd
percentile. He also ranked in the 85th percentile for adjusted rim points saved per 36 possessions.
His presence was felt greatly at the rim with posting 10.1 rim contests per 75 minutes. Len’s
defensive RAPTOR rating ranked him in the 83rd percentile with a +2.5. His work on the
defensive end will allow him to add value as an end of rotation second or third center.

Option #4:
Mario Hezonja 6’8 220lbs 25 years old, SF/PF, Current Salary: $1,737,145
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 4.5%
Former fifth overall pick Mario Hezonja has carved himself out a role in the NBA as an end of
the rotation wing that is a net positive on the defensive end of the court. Hezonja played in
Portland this past season and logged more minutes at the power forward spot than he had in any
previous season (67%). This change helped Hezonja as the knock on him offensively has been
his inability to get downhill by wings and finish at the rim (2.3 shots at the rim per 75
possessions, 31st percentile). He is a blackhole on offense, averaging 9.5 potential assists per 100
passes, in the 26th percentile. Hezonja posted a DBPM of 0.2. He is an active defender, averaging
4.5 three-point contests per 75 possessions, in the 82nd percentile. He guarded power forwards on
34.4% of his defensive possessions. Given his size at 6’8 220, should continue to be a
contributor on that end of the court as the power forward position continues to shrink from the
behemoths of the 90’s and 2000’s.

Option #5:
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Thabo Sefolosha 6’6 215lbs 36 years old, PF/SF, Current Salary: $1,620,564
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 4.5%
In his prime, Thabo Sefolosha was one of the league’s premiere perimeter defenders, specifically
in passing lanes. In low volume, he got 5.9 deflections and steals in passing lanes per 75
possessions (100th percentile amongst wings). His age has caught up to him, and his shooting has
not caught up with his age. Injuries may be part of the issue here as his leg was broken in 2015,
as well as dealing with a sprained MCL in 2018, and dealt with an illness during the middle of
the 2020 season. On top of that, he did opt out of the NBA bubble. In 2019, Sefolosha had a
good three-point shooting season with Utah, shooting 43.6% from beyond the arc on extremely
low volume (78 attempts). Unfortunately, that season was an outlier as it was the first season
since 2012 that he shot over 39% from three. Most defense treat him with little respect and will
leave him wide open from behind the arc. Where Sefolosha really will add value will be his
defensive capabilities. Sefolosha ranked in the 97th percentile in his average of 2.6 steals per 75
possessions along with averaging 4.7 deflections per 75 possessions. Sefolosha also was a gritty
defender down amongst bigs. He contested 30% of shots at the rim and a total of 7.1 rim contests
per 75 possessions. Ending the season with a defensive BPM of +1.6 Sefolosha can still come in
and impact a team’s outlook on the defensive end.

Trade Scenarios
1. Denver Nuggets
Nuggets Receiving: DeMar DeRozan, Derrick White
Spurs Receiving: Will Barton, Gary Harris, 2020 1st Round Pick
(22nd overall), 2022 1st Round Pick
This trade gives the San Antonio Spurs a bit of a fresh start and a new look going into next
season. While being a consistent 20 point per game scorer, DeRozan is limited to inside the arc,
shooting over 30.0% from behind the three-point line just three times in his eleven-year career.
In Denver, DeRozan will be able to take on a lesser role as Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray take
the brunt of the offensive burden. Derrick White is the other player in this deal, and he will be
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entering into a contract year this upcoming season. For Denver, White will presumably compete
with Monte Morris for minutes at the backup guard spot or possibly carve out a role at the two-
guard spot and take the minutes left by Will Barton. For San Antonio, Barton, Gary Harris, and
the two draft picks provide them with a soft reset. Barton had an injury riddled 2019-20 season
but has proven himself to be a reliable player in past seasons. San Antonio could look to bring
Barton off the bench as a spark plug and let a younger player start. Harris has had a tumultuous
past two seasons since signing his four-year/$84 million extension and could need a change of
scenery. Defensively, Harris posted a +2.1 defensive RAPTOR rating and has always been good
on that side of the floor. Offensively, Harris has been relegated to playing the role of a catch and
shoot wing in the Denver offense but has been less than stellar shooting. He posted a pedestrian
33.3% from three on nearly four attempts last season.

2. Portland Trailblazers
Trailblazers Receiving: DeMar DeRozan
Spurs Receiving: Trevor Ariza, Rodney Hood, Zach Collins, 2020
1st Round Pick (16th overall), 2022 1st Round Pick
This trade allows San Antonio to cash in on DeMar DeRozan’s current value and try to reinject
some youth into their roster. Trevor Ariza is a salary filler that makes this deal work financially.
He would provide veteran leadership to what would be a younger San Antonio roster. Rodney
Hood is coming off an Achilles injury, but was extremely effective prior, posting shooting splits
of 50.6/49.3/77.8 and shooting an absurd 53.8% on corner three-point attempts. If Hood can
return to 80% of his 2019-20 form, San Antonio will be very happy considering their
deficiencies from beyond the arc. The Portland Trailblazers get the best player in this deal as
well as the opportunity to see what the true ceiling is of their current roster. For the past five
seasons, Portland has flirted with being competitive in the west, but has hit a ceiling of the
conference finals. This deal would allow them to feel confident that their roster is the best
version of the pieces they currently have and evaluate going forward.

3. Boston Celtics
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Celtics Receiving: LaMarcus Aldridge, Trey Lyles, Chimezie


Metu
Spurs Receiving: Gordon Hayward, Vincent Poirier, 2020 1st
Round Pick (26th overall), 2020 1st Round Pick (30th overall)
The Boston Celtics, currently in the luxury tax and maxed out on roster spots, gets a top big man
in LaMarcus Aldridge while being able to sneak under the tax apron after cutting non-guaranteed
Trey Lyles and Chimezie Metu. For San Antonio, this deal gets them a proven wing in Gordon
Hayward that has shown the ability to score and defend consistently from the three or four while
being a consistent positive presence in the locker room. The Spurs have never been a team to
deal with baggage and in Hayward’s case, there would be no issue. San Antonio also picks up
two late first round selections in this deal. The Spurs have a knack for getting talent out of non-
lottery selections.
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TORONTO RAPTORS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
LXXXV. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 29
b. Round 2: Pick 59
LXXXVI. Team Needs
a. Center
i. Toronto has three rotation big men as free agents this offseason
(Chris Boucher, Marc Gasol, and Serge Ibaka), and with Gasol
already opting to go overseas (Barcelona), Toronto will need to
figure out who they will have at the center position for the
2020-21 season.
b. Combo Guard
i. With veteran Fred VanVleet going into unrestricted free
agency, Toronto needs to assess their options for the shooting
guard spot. VanVleet was extremely productive in this role as a
combo guard in Nick Nurse’s offense but it will be tough to
retain him (projected $18,000,000 - $25,000,000).
LXXXVII. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Free Agency
XXV. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
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XXVI. Free Agent Targets


XXVII. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 29
Choice #1
RJ Hampton 19 yrs old, G, New Zealand
Breakers (NBL)
6’5 188lbs; 6’7 Wingspan
2019-20 (15 games): 8.8 PPG; 3.9 RPG; 2.4 APG; 1.1
STL; 1.5 TO; 40.7% FG; 29.5% 3FG

With a short season due to injuries, RJ Hampton


has fallen from his original projections, but still
is a player that could be the steal of the draft that
teams saw coming out of high school as a top
prospect.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Loves to run in transition • Right hand heavily dominant
• Good athleticism, bounce for alley oops • Unreliable shooter, unable to come off
and transition dunks screen/dribble and consistently knock
• Sneaky speed/quickness, gets off down shots
screens and explodes to the basket • Slow defensively; blow by, low motor
• Good pick and roll ball handler, uses • Slow to see plays develop and read
screens to get position to drive defenses
• Potential as a playmaker on the • Poor footwork on jump shot
defensive end
NBA Comparison: Dante Exum, Michael Carter-Williams
 As one of highest ranked high schoolers, R.J. Hampton did not meet expectations in
the NBL. With a very serious hip flexor injury, Hampton only played 15 professional
games before beginning rehab and training for the NBA draft. Front offices view him
as a late steal and project to maximize his potential. He showed exception athleticism
when attacking downhill but lacks a lot of the necessary intangibles.
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Choice #2
Aleksej Pokusevski 18 yrs old, F, Olympiacos
7’0 208lbs, 7’3” Wingspan
2019-20 (11 games): 10.8 PPG; 7.9 RPG; 3.1 APG; 1.8 BLK;
1.8 TO; 40.4% FG; 32.1% 3FG

Aleksej Pokusevski has a unique skill set. He is the


stereotypical unicorn that teams covet and members
of the media hype up. He is a wing in the body of a
big. He has a lot of potential as a somewhat
unknown commodity but has also suffered concerns
about his mentality and injury history. Workouts
will make or break his stock.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Shoots well of movement, rise vertically • Needs to add weight to his frame
quick, squares up to basket • Inconsistent shooter
• Shot looks good off catch and off dribble • Struggles to make angled passes
• Unbridled confidence as a scorer • Cannot finish around the rim
• Good passing IQ for a big, outlet potential • Sets ghost screens
• Rim protector, shot blocker • Low motor in POA defense
• Strong instincts when attacking the glass • Gambles for steals frequently
NBA Comparison: Kristaps Porzingis, Dragan Bender
 Aleksej Pokusevski is a boom or bust project. His draft stock is extremely varied
amongst media members and teams. He will be a wing initially as he does not offer
much regarding a post-game or slasher. Motor and attitude are big swing skills for
him. His buyout clause from Olympiacos may push some teams away as a team will
have to pay the maximum allowed $750k if they want to bring him over immediately
to work on his development. He may need some time in a G League program.
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Choice #3
Zeke Nnaji 19 yrs old, C, Arizona
6’11 240lbs; 7’1” Wingspan
2019-20 (32 games): 16.1 PPG; 8.6 RPG; 0.8 APG; 0.9 BLK; 2.2
TO; 57.0% FG; 29.4% 3FG

Zeke Nnaji has a unique blend of skills for a center. He


has the potential to be a stretch big even though he has
not necessarily shown it yet. He is an active rim runner
that also attacks the offensive glass well. Defensively, he
guards well in space but struggles as a playmaker around
the rim.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Good finisher around the rim • Needs to add muscle
• Runs the floor well • Lacks explosiveness
• Good jumper from mid-range • Struggles to take care of the ball
• Could develop three-point shot • Black hole with the ball
• Can score off the dribble occasionally • Not a rim protector or defensive playmaker
• Guards well in space
NBA Comparison: Jason Thompson, Jordan Hill
 Zeke Nnaji will be a versatile role player. His ceiling is limited by his lack of burst
and explosion as well as the assumed development of his jump shot. He has a very
good foundation and form to his shot. He will be asked to set a ton of screens at the
next level. He also needs to learn how to pass out of the post. On defense, he will be
capable of switching in the pick and roll onto most guards. He is a decent positional
defender with good hips and footwork, but he may struggle to be much of a rim
deterrent.

ROUND 2 PICK 59
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Choice #1
Udoka Azubuike 21 yrs old, C, Kansas
7’0 260lbs; 7’7” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 13.7 PPG; 10.5 RPG; 0.9 APG;
2.6 BLK; 74.8% FG; 0% 3FG

Udoka Azubuike is a force in the paint. His


play style is that of a traditional five that
dunks, rebounds, and blocks shots. An NBA
ready frame is an understatement, as he has
shed 20 pounds of excess weight and boasts
the best wingspan in the class.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Great NBA frame • Low ceiling due to limited scoring
• Best finisher around the rim in NCAA potential outside of paint
• +7 wingspan • Needs work guarding PNR
• Quick jumper off vert • Conditioning and injury concerns
• Great hands, can catch anything around • Free throw shooting
the rim • Black hole on offense
• Shot blocker on defense • Not a great runner

NBA Comparison: Boban Marjanovic, Rudy Gobert


 Udoka Azubuike is a raw player with the physical skills to step into a rotation. He
will be an efficient scorer around the rim due to his length and quick vertical. He will
be limited in late game situations due to his poor free throw numbers. He may
struggle on defense initially due to his limited potential as a pick and roll defender.
He will have to play in drop coverage. He may also be a player that seeks out blocked
shots instead of the right defensive play. Conditioning will be key for him over an 82-
game season.
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Choice #2
Killian Tillie 22 yrs old, C, Gonzaga
6’10 220lbs; 6’10 Wingspan
2019-20 (24 games): 13.6 PPG; 5.0 RPG; 1.9 APG; 1.0
STL; 53.5% FG; 40.0% 3FG

Killian Tillie is an extremely talented big man


who has faced serious injury concerns. He offers
versatility and the ability to stretch the floor on
offense. Defensively, he is a high IQ player with
solid positioning and good footwork. His outcome
depends mainly on his health.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Good shooting range • Missed 37 college games due to hip, foot,
• Quick decision maker in passing and knee injuries
situations, potential in short roll • Lacks vertical athleticism, will not be a
• Can post up mismatches with good touch rim protector
and footwork • Poor screen setter, slips almost every
• Smart when slipping screens screening action
• High IQ defender • Cannot hedge or drop vs PNR
• Uses length well in passing lanes • Closeouts are inconsistent
• Good positional defender in post
NBA Comparison: Nicolo Melli, Nemanja Bjelica, Max Kleber
 Killian Tillie is a legitimate stretch five. He will step in on offense specifically in pick
and pop actions. Tillie can also be effective in DHOs with effective cutters around
him. Defensively, he will be competent due to his solid foundation on the positioning
and mental side. His health is going to be his swing skill. His medical records could
dictate his draft stock.
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Choice #3
Jalen Harris 22 yrs old, PG, Nevada
6’5 195lbs
2019-20 (30 games): 21.7 PPG; 6.5 RPG; 2.9 APG; 1.1
STL; 44.6% FG; 36.2% 3FG

Jalen Harris fits into the late second round as a


sparkplug off the bench. He excels on the
offensive end of the floor as a three-level scorer
and creator for others out of the pick and roll. He
is a mixed bag on defense.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Solid touch around the rim • Inconsistent shooter off the catch, should
• Makes the simple read in the PNR be used primarily on the ball
• Top level scorer in isolation and PNR • Questionable reads at times in PNR
• Shows flashes of team defense rotations • Struggles guarding POA
and tags • Inconsistent on defense, even lazy at
• Shows intelligence on defense when times when guarding PNR
chasing shooters off of screening actions • Gets beat downhill frequently
• Decent change of speed, acceleration
NBA Comparison: Trey Burke, Austin Rivers
 Jalen Harris has value as a creator in bench rotations. His scoring is by far his top
skill as he can score from three, midrange, and the paint. His age is an issue as there
is not much room to develop, but he is a finished project that can step into an NBA
rotation. He would fit in well with a contender who needs cheap rotation players.

Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted: Potential Undrafted:
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1. Trent Forrest, 22 years old, 6’4, FSU
2. Paul Eboua, 20 years old, 6’8, Victoria Libertas Pesaro
3. Nathan Knight, 23 years old, 6’10, William & Mary

Raptors Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Marc Gasol $38,199,000
2. Serge Ibaka $34,907,406
3. Fred VanVleet $14,019,230
4. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $3,000,000
II. Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
1. Chris Boucher $1,985,289
2. Malcolm Miller $1,985,289
III. Player Option
1. Stanley Johnson $3,804,150
IV. Non-Guaranteed
1. Terence Davis $1,517,981
2. Dewan Hernandez $1,517,981
3. Matt Thomas $1,517,981
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): $23,736,619
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $29,661,032

Who stays, Who goes


• Players to part ways with:
1. Marc Gasol (Signed with Barcelona)
Marc Gasol announced his signing with Barcelona. The 35-year-old big man is coming
off a down year, and it seems that his time in the NBA is over. Gasol ends his NBA
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career as a three-time all-star, the 2012-13 defensive player of the year and an NBA
champion.
2. Malcolm Miller (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 0%]
Malcolm Miller was relegated to the bench for the Toronto Raptors in the 2019-20
season. Miller has shown small flashes of 3&D potential and is a bit of a three-point
specialist, posting a 3PAr of 77.1% for his career. On defense, Miller is seen as a
slight positive by RAPTOR rating, posting a +0.6 on defense. The small sample size
hurts Miller’s scalability but, now 27 years old, Toronto can find a better, younger
option as a depth wing.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Serge Ibaka (Projected $15,000,000-$20,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 0.3%]
Serge Ibaka turned in one of the best seasons of his career in 2019-20. The Congolese
big man posted shooting splits of 51.2/38.5/71.8 as a starter and sixth man. Ibaka has
turned into an effective floor spacer, shooting over 3.0 attempts from three in 2019-20.
Ibaka is reliant on others to get shots for him, as all his three-point field goals were
assisted. He was an average post player as he averaged 0.92 points per possession, in
the 49th percentile amongst bigs. Ibaka is a plus rim deterrent and still has the feet at
times to stay with wings on switches. He contested 38.6% of rim attempts, putting him
in the 66th percentile amongst bigs. Opponents shot 12.6% worse than expected when
Ibaka was the primary rim defender. In the 2020 playoffs, Ibaka posted a whopping
+6.7 total RAPTOR rating and proved he can be a productive player on a good playoff
team.
2. Fred VanVleet (Projected $18,000,000-$25,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 20.9%]
The gritty Fred VanVleet had a career year in the 2019-20 season. The Wichita State
product posted a +2.8 overall RAPTOR rating, good for 4th best in the Eastern
Conference among Shooting Guards. VanVleet took a leap on offense, shooting nearly
seven three’s per game and maintaining efficiency, shooting 39.0% on these attempts.
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VanVleet showed the ability to be a playmaker as well, averaging 6.6 assists per
contest while still being responsible with the ball, averaging just 2.2 turnovers a game.
3. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Projected Mid-level Exception)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 65.2%]
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has suffered as the league has transitioned to a pace and space
game. Only 25 years old, Hollis-Jefferson is a tweener that does not offer floor
spacing. The slashing forward posted his most efficient year on two-point field goals
(49.7%) in just 18.7 minutes of action. This is because he had the most efficient shot
selection of his career during the 2019-20 season. 85% of his shots came from within
10 feet of the rim. 48.7% of his attempts in the half court came off cuts, post touches,
and putbacks. On defense, Hollis-Jefferson can guard the one through five. He spent at
least 17.6% of his possessions guarding each position. His defense will keep him in
the league for now. As the league moves away from non-shooting big men, Hollis-
Jefferson will have to evolve to stick around.
4. Chris Boucher (Projected $8,000,000-$12,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 4.7%]
Chris Boucher began to turn some heads this past season with Toronto. In the regular
season, Boucher played about 13 minutes per game and flashed the abilities needed to
be an effective big man in today’s NBA. On offense, Boucher shot 1.9 attempts per
game from three, shooting 32.2% on these attempts. Boucher showed the ability to put
the ball on the floor when opposing defenders closed out too hard on him and
converting 62.1% of attempts at the rim. He also did a good job of being multifaceted
and facilitating on his drives to the rim. He also provides value as a solid player out of
the pick and roll. On defense, Boucher’s 7’3.5” wingspan has made him a problem for
opponents, allowing him to clog up passing lanes and protect the rim. He did job of
getting out to shooters as he averaged 5.9 three-point contests per 75 possessions, in
the 99th percentile amongst bigs. He is a very active defender around the rim as well,
as he contested 45% of rim attempts, in the 85th percentile amongst bigs. He also
posted a block rate of 26.9% of those contests, in the 83rd percentile for bigs. He is
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much better than a replacement level player. The efficiency and athleticism is there.
He may see a big pay day if a team thinks his play will translate to a high-volume role.
5. Stanley Johnson (Player Option $3,804,150)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 74.8%]
Stanley Johnson was seldomly used for Toronto in 2019-20 and was not great in the
minutes he got. He only played 150 minutes, mainly in garbage time. Stanley’s had a
hard time finding NBA playing time because he’s never found his shot. Johnson shot
29.2% from three last season and 42.9% on twos. Johnson is a positive on the
defensive end and with his salary being $3.8 million, and he is expected to opt-in to
his player option.
6. Terence Davis (Non-Guaranteed $1,517,981)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 92.9%]
Terence Davis had himself a surprise rookie season. Davis served as the fourth guard
behind Lowry, VanVleet and Norman Powell. Davis appearing in every regular season
game for Toronto and posted impressive shooting splits of 45.6/38.8/86.4. He was in
the 80th percentile amongst guards in terms of shooting gravity. Davis was a reliable
offensive option for Toronto bench units but lacked any substantial playmaking
ability. In extremely volume (0.4 isolation possessions per 75 possessions), but he was
an extremely efficient shooter. He posted an effective field goal percentage of 56.3%
in these possessions. On defense, he was a plus statistically, but consistently guarded
subpar opponents. He spent 47.9% of his defensive possessions guarding low volume
reserves. Davis’ contract being guaranteed depends on the result of the legal procedure
and NBA investigation surrounding his assault charges.
7. Dewan Hernandez (Non-Guaranteed $1,517,981)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 78.2%]
Dewan Hernandez was a reserve big man during his rookie season. Hernandez played
at the University of Miami and is projected to be a rangy athletic big that can knock
down outside shots. Toronto’s player development has been praised league-wide, and
Hernandez figures to be the next project. Going into next season with little to no depth
in the frontcourt, Hernandez could be thrust into a much bigger role for the Raptors.
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8. Matt Thomas (Non-Guaranteed $1,517,981)


[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 58.7%]
Matt Thomas had a quiet rookie campaign but proved he could be an asset to the
Raptors going forward. In limited action, Thomas shot about 2.5 threes per game and
shot an elite 47.5%. These attempts came mainly in garbage time but going into next
year Thomas has a real shot to crack the location. Thomas shot 48.1% on catch and
shoot threes last season, a skill needed in Toronto’s offense to put additional pressure
on opposing defenses.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Hassan Whiteside 7’0 265lbs 31 years old, C, Current Salary: $27,093,018
Projected Annual Salary: Mid-level Exception
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 94%
Hassan Whiteside is coming off a max contract and seems to be at a crossroads in his career. The
7-footer has the option to join a rebuilding organization and get the role he wants as a
centerpiece or to take a smaller role with a contender. Whiteside was productive in Portland last
season. On offense, a lot of his buckets came from off-ball movement, as 54.1% of Whiteside’s
half-court offense came off cuts to the rim. He was solid as a screener, as he averaged 5.3 screen
assists per 75 possessions, in the 68th percentile amongst bigs. He struggles passing out of the
post and short roll as he averaged just 3.7 points off assists per 75 possessions, in the 10th
percentile amongst bigs. He is a blackhole on offense that needs a primary creator to find shots
for him and others. He did a great job of fighting on the offensive glass. He averaged 4.6
offensive rebounds per 75 possessions, in the 88th percentile amongst bigs. 79.7% of those
offensive rebounds were contested. On defense, Whiteside is one of the best shot blockers in the
NBA. While that is a major plus to have on a roster, he struggled to guard in space, chase blocks
instead of making the correct rotational read, and struggled with an inconsistent motor.
Whiteside is projected to be paid at the mid-level exception this offseason and his role will
depend entirely on his landing spot and preferences.
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Option #2:
Jeff Teague 6’3 195lbs 32 years old, G, Current Salary: $19,000,000
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000-$8,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 36.5%
Jeff Teague, now 32 years old, has transitioned to the second half of his career. A former all-star,
Teague is now a reliable backup point guard that can create some offense for himself. He was an
average player on offense. He did not take many threes (0.18 3PTr), instead opting to attack the
basket. On defense, Teague really struggled. According to PIPM, RPM, RAPTOR, and BPM,
Teague was in the 15th percentile amongst point guards at best. He has lost a step on the
defensive end of the floor and cannot compete on that end of the floor anymore.

Option #3:
Brad Wanamaker 6’1 200lbs 25 years old, PG/SG, Current Salary: $1,416,852
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 78.3%
Brad Wanamaker is a solid backup point guard that can captain most teams bench units. The 31-
year-old backup point guard provides any team with a steady ball handler for their bench unit
and a close to automatic free shooter, where he led the league with a 92.7% free throw
percentage. Wanamaker is not great on either side of the ball but does most things at an average
rate and that is something contending teams can value. In short, he is a game manager.

Option #4:
Bismack Biyombo 6’8 255lbs 28 years old, C, Current Salary: $17,000,000
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 58.7%
Biyombo had his highest usage percentage of his career this past season (16.8%), and it was a bit
of a disappointment from the season. He did not provide the Hornets with the shot blocking
(contested 32% of rim attempts, 57th percentile amongst centers) or rebounding (53% success
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rate of defensive rebound chances when only 36% were contested) they were seeking.
Contenders may chase after him due to his previous playoff experience in Toronto. If he plays in
a winning organization where he can focus strictly on making effort plays and rebounding, then
he may find success again.

Option #5:
Markieff Morris 6’8 245lbs 31 years old, PF, Current Salary: $1,750,000
Projected Annual Salary: $8,000,000 - $12,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 4.7%
Markieff Morris’s career took a turn for the better this season. The 31-year-old forward broke out
in the bubble, proving to be one of the most important pieces on a championship Lakers team.
During the regular season, Morris spent 3.4 possessions per 75 possessions in isolation actions
on offense, in the 85th percentile amongst wings. His game changed considerably from the
regular season to the playoffs. In the playoffs, Morris added legitimate value as a floor spacer,
cashing 42.0% of his shots from three on just over three attempts per game. It was also the first
time in his career (regular season or playoffs) that he shot over 70% of his shots from behind the
arc. On defense, Morris is not the best statistically. His value on this end of the floor comes from
his ability to play the enforcer role. He is extremely vocal and relishes in taking on the hardest
matchup.

Trade Scenarios
1. Washington Wizards
Wizards Receiving: Stanley Johnson, Patrick McCaw, 2020 1st
Round Pick (29th overall)
Raptors Receiving: Ish Smith, Moe Wagner
Ish Smith is a proven backup point guard and would be a great bench captain for the Toronto
Raptors. Moe Wagner is a young big that began to show his stretch ability in Washington,
shooting just over 30.0% on nearly two attempts from three per game. If Wagner can continue to
improve his efficiency from beyond the arc, he can be an asset to Toronto. On defense, Wagner
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posted a +1.2 RAPTOR rating and has shown the size to deal with most NBA bigs. The
Washington Wizards get back two young wings in Stanley Johnson and Patrick McCaw while
adding the 29th overall selection in the 2020 NBA draft.

2. Dallas Mavericks
Mavericks Receiving: Stanley Johnson, 2020 2nd Round Pick
(59th overall)
Raptors Receiving: Willie Cauley-Stein
This deal helps soften the potential losses of Chris Boucher, Serge Ibaka, and Marc Gasol for
Toronto. Willie Cauley-Stein is a vertical floor spacer and athlete on the offensive end and
provides adequate rim protection on defense. Cauley-Stein will be the starter for Toronto if
neither Boucher nor Ibaka return to Toronto. Cauley-Stein posted a +4.7 defensive RAPTOR
rating last regular season and with most of those minutes coming on a bad Golden State Warriors
team, Cauley-Stein figures to slot into the Raptors defense well. For Dallas, this trade helps them
loosen their logjam at the center position and add a young wing in Stanley Johnson.

3. Houston Rockets
Rockets Receiving: 2020 1st Round Pick (29th overall), 2020 2nd
Round Pick (59th overall)
Raptors Receiving: P.J. Tucker
The Toronto Raptors add a solid rotation piece that will take some of the minutes that were
allotted to Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka. PJ Tucker fits in well to the Raptors, ran by the
defensive savant, Nick Nurse. He can guard the one through five, while fitting in on offense as a
floor spacer. He spent 15.9% of his defensive possessions guarding All-Star players, in the 89th
percentile amongst bigs. In return, the Houston Rockets unload an unhappy rotation piece while
also adding flexibility to a team that is inching closer to blowing up the roster. Due to the rumors
of James Harden and Russell Westbrook possibly being traded, draft capital may be value in an
ever-changing situation.
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UTAH JAZZ
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
LXXXVIII. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 23
LXXXIX. Team Needs
a. Backup point guard
i. Emmanuel Mudiay is not the answer at the backup point guard
spot. He could not crack the playoff rotation (34 minutes in 3
games) and was extremely inefficient in the minutes he did play
(43.7 TS%, 8.8 AST%, and a -6.6 BPM).
b. Backup center
i. The Jazz also did not utilize a backup center in their playoff
rotations. Rudy Gobert played almost 40 MPG in the playoffs,
with the remaining minutes filled by Tony Bradley and Juwan
Morgan.
XC. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Jazz Free Agency
XLIII. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XLIV. Free Agent Targets
XLV. Trade Scenarios
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ROUND 1 PICK 23
Choice #1
Isaiah Stewart 19 yrs old, C,
Washington
6’9 250lbs; 7’4” Wingspan
2019-20 (32 games): 17.0 PPG; 8.8 RPG; 0.8
APG; 2.1 BLK; 2.2 TO; 57% FG; 25% 3FG
Isaiah Stewart is a prototypical small
ball five with a high motor. He is
coming into the league with elite length
and strength. He excels on the offensive
glass as an energizer bunny. Potential to
improve comes with a consistent jump
shot.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Top player in this draft in regard to • Guarding the PNR will be a problem for
off court value and team interviews him
• High motor rim runner • Jump shot is not there
• Nice touch in mid post • Blackhole on offense (0.4:1.0 AST:TO)
• Uses NBA ready frame to draw fouls • Only 15% of his offensive possessions
at a high rate were PNR
• 19 years old • Limited ceiling, rim running centers are
• Can attack mismatches in the post by replaceable
playing bully ball • Poor footwork, lacks quick vertical and
poor first step when attacking downhill
NBA Comparison: Antonio Davis, Montrezl Harrel
 Isaiah Stewart is a high motor five man. He is a great runner in straight line situations,
namely transition possessions. He has exceeded all teams’ expectations as far as draft
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interviews go. His ceiling will be determined by how he improves as a shooter. There
are also questions regarding his ability to guard perimeter players in space.

Choice #2
Udoka Azubuike 21 yrs old, C, Kansas
7’0 260lbs; 7’7” Wingspan
2019-20 (31 games): 13.7 PPG; 10.5 RPG; 0.9 APG;
2.6 BLK; 74.8% FG; 0% 3FG

Udoka Azubuike is a force in the paint. His


play style is that of a traditional five that
dunks, rebounds, and blocks shots. An NBA
ready frame is an understatement, as he has
shed 20 pounds of excess weight and boasts
the best wingspan in the class.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Great NBA frame • Low ceiling due to limited scoring
• Best finisher around the rim in NCAA potential outside of paint
• +7 wingspan • Needs work guarding PNR
• Quick jumper off vert • Conditioning and injury concerns
• Great hands, can catch anything around • Free throw shooting
the rim • Black hole on offense
• Shot blocker on defense • Not a great runner

NBA Comparison: Boban Marjanovic, Rudy Gobert


 Udoka Azubuike is a raw player with the physical skills to step into a rotation. He
will be an efficient scorer around the rim due to his length and quick vertical. He will
be limited in late game situations due to his poor free throw numbers. He may
struggle on defense initially due to his limited potential as a pick and roll defender.
He will have to play in drop coverage. He may also be a player that seeks out blocked
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shots instead of the right defensive play. Conditioning will be key for him over an 82-
game season.

Choice #3
Malachi Flynn 22 yrs old, PG, San Diego State
6’2 185lbs; 6’3 Wingspan
2019-20: 17.6 PPG; 4.5 RPG; 5.1 APG; 1.8 STL; 1.8 TO; 44.1% FG;
37.3% 3FG

Malachi Flynn has shown an ability to guard that could net


him immediate playing time in the league. He has shown
legitimate scoring prowess as well from multiple levels.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Pick and roll maestro, great at reading • Small frame, needs to add size
defensive coverages • Needs to develop a better paint game off
• Variety of ways to score, uses pull up as pick and roll
well as coming off the dribble, able to play • Guarding bigger guards
off the ball and relocate to get open spot • Not an elite athlete; doesn’t have quick
up shots off dribble penetration; limitless enough burst to blow by defenders
range, never shy’s away from deep 3’s • Little room for growth/development
• Good ball handler
• Active and alert defender
NBA Comparison: Fred Van Fleet, Tyus Jones
 Malachi Flynn has had a very solid college career. His ability to run the pick and roll
and shoot the 3 have been highly impressive during his tenure in college. Where he as
well lacks in physical attributes his skills have been able to carry him along to reach
this point of making it to the next level. Whether teams view him as a guy capable of
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playing the 1 or 2 at the NBA level remains up in the air. He is a versatile scorer, that
may struggle to create space against top tier defenders.

Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Anthony Lamb, 22 years old, 6’6, Vermont
2. Karim Mane, 20 years old, 6’5, Vanier College
3. Justinian Jessup, 22 years old, 6’7, Boise State

Jazz Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Jordan Clackson $13,437,500
2. Emmanuel Mudiay $1,620,564
II. Player Option
1. Mike Conley Jr. $34,502,132
III. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Georges Niang $1,783,557
2. Juwan Morgan $1,517,981
3. Miye Oni $1,517,981
4. Rayjon Tucker $1,517,981
5. Nigel Williams-Goss $1,517,981
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($4,839,442)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $32,445,456

Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Jordan Clarkson (Projected $12,000,000-$15,000,000)
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[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 49.9%]


Jordan Clarkson has been a plus scorer for a Utah Jazz team that has lacked significant
shot creators outside of Donovan Mitchell. He volume made up for his average
efficiency, along with the fact that he created a lot of his own shots. This shows in his
shot selection as only 11% of his threes were open (20th percentile). He is a strong on
ball creator but does not do a ton when off the ball. He fits in well as a sixth man
leading the second unit. He was efficient in high value actions averaging 1.01 PPP as
the ball handler in the PNR (87th percentile) and 1.13PPP in spot up actions (80th
percentile). On defense, Clarkson has been a negative for most of his career, but he
still gives consistent effort there. This makes up for lack of talent on that end of the
floor. Off the court, Clarkson has fit in well in Utah, as he sat in on Georges Niang’s
podcast and spoke about how much he enjoyed the area. The question for resigning
him comes down whether he is available at the right price point. A point of importance
is that the Jazz do have his bird rights. The Jazz would be better off to let him walk if
he gets an eight-figure annual contract and take the cap flexibility for the 2021
offseason.
2. Emmanuel Mudiay (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 49.9%]
Emmanuel Mudiay struggled with backup point guard minutes. He was a below
average shooter from three-point range (34.5%) on low volume (0.27 3PTr). His
biggest strength on offense is getting downhill to the rim, but he struggled to finish or
create contact. He did get downhill easily with 62% of his makes at the rim being
unassisted. He drew fouls on 6.3% of his drives (55th percentile) but only finished the
and one on 16% of those fouls (28th percentile). The issue with his offensive game is
that he needs the ball in his hands like Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley Jr, and Joe
Ingles on occasion. He is by far the worst offensive option out of that group in on-ball
creation. He does not add value off the ball (4% of his half-court offense came from
off-ball actions). Defensively, he was an average PNR defender, giving up 0.87 PPP.
This took up most of his charted defensive actions. He is not a very good defensive
player due to an inconsistent motor. His fit on the offensive end of the court is the
main reason why Mudiay should be hitting the free agency market.
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3. Nigel Williams-Goss (Projected Minimum)


[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 73.1%]
Nigel Williams-Goss spent most of his time in the G League after playing two years
internationally. He did see 50 minutes of time on an NBA court this season. He is a
well-rounded offensive player, but scoring could be an issue for him at the NBA level.
He does not have a lot of touch on his jump shot, as a lot of his misses were bad, being
off the backboard, to the left or right, or airballs from shooting too hard. His touch
around the rim is also below average as he missed a decent amount of bunny layups.
On defense, he lacks lateral athleticism and the acceleration to recover to the ball. His
size hurts him on this end of the floor as most guards can rise up over him for a jumper
or bully ball past him to the rim. His age is also a negative as he is still considered
more of a prospect than a rotation piece at age 25. The Jazz should move on from
Williams-Goss.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Mike Conley Jr. (Player Option $34,502,132)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 0%]
Mike Conley Jr. will be opting into to his player option. He faced hamstring and knee
issues this year and missed 25 regular season games. He did not meet Utah’s lofty
expectations for their new point guard, as he faced a lot of struggles this year. He
really could not score from two-point range, taking only 6.6 attempts per game (lowest
since 2008) on 43.7% shooting (lowest for career) with a free throw rate of 0.24
(lowest since 2011). His AST% dropped 10.3 points as well as his TO% rose 3.7
points. Conley did improve toward the end of the season once his injuries began to
clear up. Regardless of his regression within the arch, he was still an elite shooter from
beyond the arch. He shot 37.5% from three with 38% of those being unassisted. He
still has a place in Utah’s starting lineup as a facilitator alongside Donovan Mitchell,
but expectations should be tempered this season.
2. Georges Niang (Non-Guaranteed $1,783,557)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 56.8%]
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Georges Niang has added real value to Utah as a floor spacing wing while on a
minimum contract. In his first season averaging more than 10 minutes per game, he
had a TS% of 58.9% with a three-point rate of 0.7. His value on offense comes strictly
from his ability to space the floor. Niang finished in the 92nd percentage for three-
point gravity per 75 possessions. He does a decent job of moving off the ball but did
not do it all that often this past year, being more of a stationary shooter off the catch.
He shot very well around the rim (76.5%) but it was on an extremely limited sample
size (10.6% of his shots). On defense, he really did not add much value in any aspect,
but that can also be flipped as a plus because he was not a negative anywhere as well.
Niang is a plus shooter that can hold his own on defense when required.
3. Juwan Morgan (Non-Guaranteed $1,517,981)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 42.4%]
Juwan Morgan should get his contract guaranteed this offseason after he signed with
the Jazz initially as an undrafted free agent. He saw some legitimate playoff minutes
this year against Denver in games one through three. He did not provide a ton of box
score value, but he still added value to Utah. His +/- for those three games was +17 (in
a 10-point loss), +2, and +23 respectively. At Indiana he was a good off ball player,
putting up 0.95 PPP on spot-ups (53rd percentile) and 1.55 PPP on cuts (95th
percentile). He showed some legitimate potential in 15 G Leagues game as well with a
TS% of 68.3%. At Indiana, Salt Lake, and Utah, he has shown serious defensive
potential in the isolation, off-ball situations, and the pick and roll. Morgan is an
inexpensive pickup for Utah that should add some real value as a bench rotation piece.
4. Miye Oni (Non-Guaranteed $1,517,981)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 2 Year Deal: 65.4%]
Miye Oni is currently the only Ivy League alum in the NBA, hailing from Yale. He
spent his first season in the NBA splitting time between Utah and Salt Lake City. He
has shown a lot of improvement in his shooting form, bettering his footwork and
upping his release angle. He shot 35.4% on threes with Salt Lake City, but that
percentage jumps to 42% when filtering for only games in 2020. He is undersized for a
forward at 6’5” but has a solid frame and decent length that projects well on the
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defensive end of the floor. He could use another year in the G League to get some
more playing time. He is a good end of rotation 3&D prospect for the Jazz to keep
around.
5. Rayjon Tucker (Non-Guaranteed $1,517,981)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 1 Year Deal: 59.4%]
Rayjon Tucker has real untapped potential at the guard spot. He is an extremely
athletic guard that put up strong scoring numbers in the G League. He averaged 23.8
points on 49.6% from the field and 15.8 attempts per game with the Wisconsin Herd.
He struggled with efficiency problems during his time in Salt Lake City (35.3% from
the field), but it was on a tiny three game sample. He is publicly known to be an
extremely hard worker. At a minimum contract evaluation, he should be worth
resigning.

Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Derrick Favors 6’9 265lbs 29 years old, C/PF, Current Salary: $17,650,000
Projected Annual Salary: $8,000,000-$12,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 66.1%
Derrick Favors adds value as a play finishing big who attacks the glass. Favors is not a floor
spacer on offense, instead being more of a finisher around the rim. He finishes well with contact
(70.6% FG% at the rim) and has an adequate hook shot. He is also a capable passer, finishing the
last three seasons with a plus AST/TO ratio. He saves a lot of plays on the offensive glass (4.7
ORB per 75 possessions, 91st percentile) for kickouts to shooters. He also is an elite force on the
defensive glass. That may have been a little exaggerated with New Orleans as he did not have
much help as far as bigs go, but he showed the same ability for most of his career. He is not
much of a deterrent as a rim defender but shows versatility as a perimeter defender. He reads
passing lanes surprisingly well for a big and shows a propensity for going after loose balls. Every
public advanced metric loves Favors as a big who finishes well, rebounds, and can guard in
space.
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Option #2:
Justin Holiday 6’6 180lbs 31 years old, SG, Current Salary:
Projected Annual Salary: $5,000,000-$8,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 50.6%
Just Holiday is a solid low volume two guard. His role offensively is to move off the ball and
gets shots off on the perimeter. Almost 70% of his shots came from three, where he was
extremely efficient. He shot 42.4% from three while being a perimeter focus for defenses. Only
19% of his threes were considered open shots according to Bball Index. He cannot create those
shots for himself but plays well off of a ball dominant guard (97% of his threes were assisted).
Holiday really does not provide much else on the offensive end besides that spacing. He only
takes 2 shots at the rim per 75 possessions and is very passive in his passing. Defensively, he is
very versatile, spending significant time guarding the two through four. He is a very active
perimeter defender that battles every possession. He is a superior interior defender compared to
other guards. This allows his team to make more rotations because the backside can rotate to rim
protection as well. Holiday is a prototypical 3&D player.

Option #3:
Kris Dunn 6’3 205lbs 26 years old, PG, Current Salary: $5,348,007
Projected Annual Salary: $8,000,000-$10,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 59.5%
Kris Dunn just came off an all-defense level season, receiving the 11th most votes (31). He was
labeled by many as a best early in his career but has carved out a solid role as a strong perimeter
defender. On the offensive end of the floor, is where he struggled to add value. As an outside
shooter, he is one of the worst in the league (23.5% from three off the dribble, 26.6% from three
off the dribble). Some players such as Marcus Smart who struggle from three still add value as a
shooter because of their shot volume leading to gravity, but that is not the case for Dunn as he
was in the 4th percentile amongst guards in Total 3PT Gravity according to Bball Index. He is a
slight plus at getting to the rim and finishing. He is very much an average playmaker, typically
acting as a passive creator. Defensively, he can guard the one through three. He is one of the best
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perimeter defenders in the league, especially as a play maker in passing lanes. He was in the
100th percentile for Steals per 75 and deflections per 75. His role is to guard his opponents’
number one option on the floor.

Option #4:
D.J. Augustin 5’11 185lbs 32 years old, PG, Current Salary: $7,250,000
Projected Annual Salary: Mid-Level Exception
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 69.2%
D.J. Augustin is a solid veteran point guard. When on the ball, his value comes from attacking
downhill plus running half court sets. He averaged 0.94 PPP as a pick and roll ball handler, good
for the 76th percentile of point guards. He was not great at getting all the way downhill and
finishing but uses that advantage to facilitate for others. Augustin’s three-point percentage might
not show it, but Augustin is a great three-point shooter, specifically off the catch (46.5%). He did
not get the chance to in Orlando, but he would fit well as a secondary creator alongside a ball
dominant shot creator. Defensively, he does not add much value. He is a negative on that end of
the floor according to basically every metric, so that aspect of his game cannot be expected to
change at this point in his career. Using Augustin in the right role would provide a legitimate
veteran presence at the backup point guard spot.

Option #5:
Kyle O’Quinn 6’9 250lbs 30 years old, C/PF, Current Salary: $1,620,564
Projected Annual Salary: Minimum
Probability to Add Positive Value on 1 Year Deal: 54.7%
Kyle O’Quinn is a strong veteran presence to any locker room. His value does not stem just from
his on-court production, but off the court as well. On the court, he is a low volume big that can
play spot minutes as a second or third center. He is a good finisher off dump downs and roll
actions. He is a good rim runner, adding 1.57 PPP in transition actions. He also took a third of
his shots from three but did not provide much value in terms of making those shots. He could
have some value as a pick and pop big as his three-point shooting percentage rose to 38% on
above the break threes, although this was on low volume. O’Quinn is also a very good passer as
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far as bigs go. He averaged almost six assists per 36 minutes and created 13.2 assisted points per
75 possessions (95th percentile amongst centers). On the defensive end of the floor, he is an
average perimeter defender. He does not move very well in space but has a high basketball IQ
and is typically a good positional defender. He is a good interior defender though, deterring 41%
of rim attempts with a BLK% of 6.5%. He is a minimum veteran that can add value to a
contending team.

Trade Scenarios
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder Receiving: Mike Conley Jr, 2022 1st Round Pick (Lottery
protected), 2021 2nd Round Pick via Golden State
Jazz Receiving: Chris Paul
Chris Paul completely blew away any expectations for him and the Oklahoma City Thunder this
past year just by making the playoffs. Before this season, Paul was considered a liability on the
trade market due to his enormous cap hit, but no longer. This trade gives the Jazz the all-star
level point guard that they have been looking for to fit in alongside Donovan Mitchell. This trade
gives an expiring contract as well as more draft capital for Sam Presti to work with. Conley
could also be flipped at the trade deadline to a contender.

2. Brooklyn Nets
Nets Receiving: Joe Ingles
Jazz Receiving: Spencer Dinwiddie
Joe Ingles’ role is somewhat redundant on the Jazz with the Bojan Bogdanovic signing. Spencer
Dinwiddie provides immediate shot creation in downhill scenarios as well as more depth at the
guard spot. He also opens the possibility of three guard lineups if the Jazz want to push the pace.
Brooklyn does not necessarily need pure point guards with the current roster built around Kyrie
Irving and Kevin Durant. Ingles can act as a secondary creator when necessary who can add
value as a floor spacer and on the defensive end of the court. Their salaries are nearly identical
and match well.
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3. Miami Heat
Heat Receiving: Tony Bradley, 2021 2nd Round Pick via Golden
State
Jazz Receiving: Kendrick Nunn
Kendrick Nunn could come in and add value as a perimeter initiator off the bench for Utah. He is
a shot creator first, and a playmaker second. His value is overstated currently, so Utah may need
to add another draft pick or cash considerations on top of this offer. Nunn is an immediate
upgrade over Emmanuel Mudiay. For Miami, Bradley is a cheap option at the second or third
center spot. The Lakers series has shown how that position is a defensive weakness for the Heat.
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WASHINGTON WIZARDS
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2020 Draft, Free Agency, Trade Analysis


2020 NBA DRAFT
XCI. Current Draft Picks
a. Round 1: Pick 9
b. Round 2: Pick 37
XCII. Draft Needs
a. Defensive minded wings
i. The Wizard’s struggled to defend, especially in the paint (14.4
second chance points allowed, and 51.4 points allowed in the
paint, 28th and 25th respectively).
b. Floor spacers
i. The Wizards struggled to shoot from three except for Davis
Bertans. Taking Bertans out of the equation, the Wizards would
have been last in threes made as well as fallen from 8th to 23rd.
XCIII. Undrafted Free Agents
2020 Wizards Free Agency
XLVI. Team Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA), Restricted Free Agents (RFA),
Team Options, Player Options, Cap Space for 2020-21
XLVII. Free Agent Targets
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ROUND 1 PICK 9
Choice #1
Onyeka Okongwu 19 yrs old, F, USC
6’9 245lbs; 7’1” Wingspan
2019-20 (28 Games): 16.2 PPG; 8.6 RPG; 1.1 APG;
2.7 BLK; 2.0 TO; 61.6% FG; 25.0% 3FG

Onyeka Okongwu is an elite defensive force.


He was one of the best shot blockers in the
NCAA. On offense, he is a classic PNR big
man. He is extremely athletic, both vertically
and laterally. His ceiling comes from the
potential for him to add to his scoring
repertoire.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Explosive vertical leaper • Raw offensively
• Great hands, balance, and footwork • Undersize at 6’9”
• Nice touch around the rim • Struggles with turnovers at times
• Good, strong screener • Deals with foul trouble, susceptible to
• Underrated passer, makes good reads charges on offense
• Excellent shot blocker, with good • Shooting is not reliable past 10 feet
timing, and does not gamble • Struggles to guard the post against
• Can switch in pick and roll stronger players
NBA Comparison: Derrick Favors, Tristan Thompson
 Onyeka Okongwu will immediately be able to step into a starting lineup at the five. He
has one of the highest floors in this draft class, but there are real concerns about how
much better he can get, specifically on offense. Expanding his offensive range will be the
first step. Defensively, he has a great foundation to build upon.
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Choice #2
Isaac Okoro 19 yrs old, F, Auburn
6’6 225lbs; 6’9 Wingspan
2019-20: 12.8 PPG; 4.4 RPG; 2.0 APG; 0.9
STL; 2.0 TO; 51.4% FG; 28.6% 3FG

Okoro is the prototypical build for an


NBA forward. A long, athletic swing
prospect with a strong defensive
presence that can play point of attack
against an opponent’s top scorer.

Strengths Weaknesses
• Strong ability to finish off both feet at • Struggles to score outside paint
the rim, not afraid of contact • Needs improved shooting mechanics,
• Poise and composure at a young age, footwork
does not gamble • Looks lost on offense when slashing
• Solid first step, rips well in triple threat lanes taken away
• Great defensive instincts/awareness, • Always looking to spin or Euro step,
moves well laterally, can guard 1-5 low variety of moves
• Active off ball defender with solid • Inconsistent free throw shooter
spatial awareness • No off-dribble jump shot
• Capable shooter off catch • Can get sloppy/out of control on drives
NBA Comparison: Justice Winslow, Justin Anderson, Jaylen Brown
 Isaac Okoro is a high value wing defender with low offensive production from outside
the paint. Okoro has an impressive demeanor and shows maturity. His role will be to
guard the number one option every night.
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Choice #3
Devin Vassell 20 yrs old, G/F, FSU
6’7 190lbs; 6’9 ¼ Wingspan
2019-20: 12.7 PPG; 5.1 RPG; 1.6 APG; 1.4
STL; 0.8 TO; 49.0% FG; 41.5% 3FG

Devin Vassell is a 3&D prototype. He


is an efficient shooter off the catch as
well as a defensive playmaker. He has
shown flashes of offensive facilitation
as well.

Strengths Weaknesses
• NBA ready defender, long/lengthy frame • Skinny frame, needs to add weight
• Effort player; never gives up on a play, • Lacks speed and quickness to blow by
threat to make chase down plays in defenders
transition • Lacks a variety of ball handling moves
• Fronts the post well • Not a proficient ball handler
• Shoots 3p at high %, high release point • Can be risk taker on defense, relies on
• Runs floor aggressive on fast break length to recover
• Ability to facilitate the ball even not being • Quicker guards can get past his hips
primary ball handler
NBA Comparison: Khris Middleton, Robert Covington, Mikal Bridges
 Devin Vassell made improvements his shooting ability from freshman to sophomore
year. He has improved his offensive game tremendously and his continual effort on both
ends of the floors shows his determination, maturity, and readiness to play and impact the
next level immediately. With the undersized frame his biggest concern is his ability to
gain weight, but his length is a huge plus for NBA wings on the defensive end of the
floor.
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ROUND 2 PICK 37
Choice #1
Nico Mannion 19 yrs old, G, Arizona
6’3 190lbs, 6’2 ½ ” Wingspan
2019-20 (32 games): 14.0 PPG; 2.5 RPG; 5.3 APG; 1.2
STL; 2.6 TO; 39.2% FG; 32.7% 3FG

Nico Mannion is a polarizing prospect in this


draft class as his best film came from before his
time at Arizona. He should translate to the
league as a secondary facilitator. His shooting
percentages are worrisome. Defensively, the
hope is that he can be average at best. His
length hurts him here.

Strengths Weaknesses
• High IQ player, comfortable passer • May struggle to create space off the dribble
• Solid touch on floater • Long shot release, pulls from chest
• Good at making reads in transition • Undersized 2 guard
• Works well off screening actions, makes • Questionable PNR defender
the right reads typically • Negative wingspan hurts him on defense
• Intelligent positional defender • Needs to cut BF% and add weight
NBA Comparison: Derrick White, Quinn Cook
 Nico Mannion started the season as a potential lottery prospect on a lot of big boards
and mock drafts but has fallen on most if not all boards. His role at the next level will
be as a secondary facilitator. He may struggle to create his own shot off the dribble to
his lack of size and limited athleticism. His defensive is questionable at best due to
his negative length and limited upside as a playmaker. Mannion turning into a
competent defender would be a huge plus.
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Choice #2
Cassius Stanley 21 yrs old, SG, Duke
6’6 195lbs; 6’7” Wingspan
2019-20 (29 Games): 12.6 PPG; 4.9 RPG; 1.0 APG; 0.7 STL;
1.9 TO; 47.4% FG; 36.0% 3FG

Cassius Stanley had a disappointing season with Duke.


His draft stock is based off his elite athleticism and
status as a top college player. He struggles to create on
the ball for himself and for others. Defensively he has
shown some value in POA but struggled in team
defense situations.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Top tier scorer in transition • Not an offensive initiator
• Gets above the rim easily • (6.6 AST%)
(32 dunks) • Cannot create for himself
• Potential as an isolation defender (50% of rim attempts were assisted)
• Solid lateral speed • Handle is below average
• Good shot blocker for a guard • Struggled with fouls
(1.1 BLK per 40) (3.2 PF per 40)
• Quick release for jump shot • Old for a college freshman
• Struggles as a team defender in passing
lanes
NBA Comparison: Terrance Ferguson, Glenn Robinson III
 Cassius Stanley’s draft stock is based off the highlights and potential he showed before
his time at Duke. At Duke he dominated in transition, the recent history of Duke wings in
the NBA is also on his side. The ceiling for him is a 3&D shooting guard as his lack of
playmaking really limits him. There are real defensive concerns about his ability to guard
off the ball along with his motor.
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Choice #3
Theo Maledon 19 yrs old, G, ASVEL (LNB)
6’5 180lbs; 6'9” Wingspan
2019-20 (20 games): 6.5 PPG; 1.8 RPG; 3.1 APG; 0.3
STL; 39.0% FG; 29.4% 3FG

Theo Maledon is a combo guard who has slid


down draft boards during the 2020 calender
year. On ball, he operates out of the pick and roll
well. He has a solid, but slow shot release. On
defense, he is limited athletically and struggles
to guard the pick and roll. He is best as an off
ball defender.
Strengths Weaknesses
• Flashes of solid body control and touch • Needs to speed up jumpshot
around the rim • Settles for easy reads in passing situations
• Solid set jump shot w/ good shot • Refrains from attacking the rim with
selection much consistency
• Good footwork, ball fakes, change of • Ball watches a lot on defense
pace • Continuously gets hit by screens and does
• Solid PNR ball handler, controls floor not fight through
well, does not let defense change his pace • Limited to guarding point guards
• Does a good job tagging when off-ball • Plays defense flat-footed

NBA Comparison: Shabazz Napier


 Theo Maledon projects as a secondary playmaker that operates mainly in the pick and
roll as well as catch and shoot situations. He does a good job of controlling the pace
of the game and not doing too much. His jump shot projects to be average at best due
to a slow release and not much potential to shoot off of the move. On defense, his
ceiling is to be an average defender. He has real struggles when guarding on the ball,
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both in point of attack actions and pick and roll sets. His role will most likely be as a
rotational piece off the bench.

Undrafted Free Agents Targets


Potential Undrafted:
1. Trent Forrest, 22 years old, 6’4, Florida State
2. Kaleb Wesson, 21 years old, 6’10, Ohio State
3. Nick Richards, 22 years old, 6’11, Kentucky

Wizards Free Agents


I. Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)
1. Ian Mahinmi $15,450,051
2. Davis Bertans $7,000,000
3. Gary Payton II $1,845,301
4. Shabazz Napier $1,845,301
II. Non-Guaranteed Contract
1. Isaac Bonga $1,663,861
2. Anzejs Pasceniks $1,517,981
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Cap Room minus Holds): ($2,524,513)
 Potential Cap Space for 2020-21 (Potential Cap Room): $12,087,243

Who stays, Who goes


▪ Players to part ways with:
1. Ian Mahinmi (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 64.4%]:
Ian Mahinmi is coming off one of the worst cases of an overpay from the 2016 cap
spike. He has missed 43% of available games since signing a four-year deal with
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Washington. This season alone he missed time due to Achilles, foot, and groin
injuries. Most of the games he played this season were due to an injury to Thomas
Bryant combined with an already depleted front court which forced him into the
lineup. On the court, he is a capable post up big. He averaged 0.92 points per post
possession (44th percentile among centers). He is also a good hard screen setter that
uses his body and positioning well to get ballhandlers moving downhill (5.5 screen
assists per 75 possessions, 67th percentile among centers). Mahinmi’s current value
does not come from his on the court play, but rather from his leadership and team
building in the locker room. He was brought along on the bubble roster, knowing he
most likely would not receive playing time. The Wizards brought him to Orlando to
help educate the younger players and provide a veteran presence. His time in
Washington is most likely up, but a young team in need of a vocal leader could use his
services.
2. Davis Bertans (Projected $15,000,000-$20,000,000)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 4 Year Deal: 35.7%]:
Davis Bertans is one of the best shooters in the NBA. He shot 42.4% from three on 8.7
attempts per game. He did this while being smothered by defenders (8.7% of his threes
were open, 5th percentile). He even extended his range far beyond the NBA line. Over
90% of his threes were from above the break, with the line sitting at 23 feet and 9
inches from the rim. His average three-point shot was 26 feet and 7 inches from the
rim, almost three feet past the line. Bertans gets a lot of these shots through his
movement off the ball, particularly through screening actions. A third of his half court
scoring chances came off screening actions. On defense, Bertans struggled on the
perimeter. Even though he spent 42.6% of his defensive possessions guarding spot-up
shooters and pick and pop bigs, he only contested three three-pointers per 75
possessions (12th percentile among power forwards). A blatant lack of effort at times
may be a reason for these perimeter deficiencies as he only traveled 1.1 miles per 75
defensive possessions (7th percentile among power forwards). He was much better
guarding the interior, albeit still not good. Opponents shot 1.8% worse at the rim
against him than expected. Bertans is not a shot blocker by any means as he only
contested 25% of rim attempts when he was on the floor and only blocked 13% of
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those contests. Washington should not bring him back if he starts to get offers inching
near the $20 million annual range. Bertans fits well into a necessary role for this team,
but he has never had a season with a USG% over 20%. This leads to questions of
whether he can step up as a leader. There are too many questions regarding his value at
this dollar amount, so Washington may let him walk.
3. Gary Payton II (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 7.9%]:
Gary Payton II was signed to help with some perimeter defense issues. He delivered
on the defensive end of the floor. He picked off or deflected 7.2 passes per 75
possessions (100th percentile among point guards). He was elite when guarding both
on and off the ball. He is extremely active and refuses to stay stagnant on defense.
This is shown by his role adjusted feet traveled per minute on defensive possessions,
where he was +30.2 feet compared to expectations. This was also in the 100th
percentile among point guards. He also shows versatility on this end of the floor as he
spent at least 20% of his possessions guarding the one through three. He finishes
defensive possessions as well as he secured 4.4 defensive rebounds per 75 possessions.
Offense is a different story. He was one of the worst shooters in the NBA. He shot 1.6
attempts per game from deep, but that did not force defenders to even consider him a
threat as his shooting gravity ranked in the 15th percentile for point guards. He
averaged 0.76 PPP on spot up attempts (5th percentile among point guards). There was
not an area on offense that he was a plus besides, funny enough, offensive rebounding.
As a 6’3 guard, he averaged 2.1 offensive rebounds per 75 possessions on mainly
contested attempts (73.1% were contested). Payton’s complete lack of an offensive
game does not bode well.
4. Shabazz Napier (Projected Minimum)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 1 Year Deal: 95.8%]:
After joining his sixth team in six years via trade, Shabazz Napier may be looking for
a seventh team this offseason. Napier had a great season by his standards in regard to
his shooting, finishing with a career high TS% of 55.2%. This is pedestrian by NBA
standards though as that is in the 58th percentile amongst NBA point guards. When
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taking free throws out of the equation and just focusing on his live ball possessions, he
had a effect field goal percentage of 49.8% (41st percentile amongst NBA point
guards). He has shown growth in his ability to take and make shots off the dribble as
there has been a steady decline in the percentage of threes he has that that have been
assisted (42% unassisted, up from 21% his rookie year). Napier did a good job of
slashing this year. He did a good job of getting downhill and using his hips to stay in
front of defenders. He also finished well around the rim at a 73.5% clip, but only took
20% of his shots at the rim. He struggled as a playmaker this year, seeing a rise in his
TO% and just bad reads in general. Although it was a small sample size, Napier
struggled to take care of the ball against playoff teams as he averaged 7.2 turnovers
per 100 possessions in the bubble. On defense, Napier was pesky in pack line defense.
He read passing angles very well and stayed active. He averaged 4.3 steals off passes
and deflections per 75 possessions (81st percentile amongst point guards). He was
average by most metrics such as PIPM, RAPTOR, and BPM. He was also average by
the eye test, with lack luster shooting, decent slashing, and effort on defense. Napier
did not impress this season and should be out of Washington come 2021.
▪ Players to keep:
1. Anzejs Pasecniks (Non-Guaranteed $1,517,981)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 3 Year Deal: 61%]:
Anzejs Pasecniks had his contract converted midseason from a two-way to an
unguaranteed multiyear deal. He currently has three years and roughly $5.5 million
left on that deal. On offensive, his current role is to finish dump offs and put backs
around the rim. His average shot was only 5.7 feet away from the rim. He plays mainly
below the rim though as only 7.8% of his field goal attempts led to dunks. He is a
smart screener, especially in situations where rescreening may be necessary. He opens
up well out of screens as well, always looking for the ball. Regarding his shooting
touch, there is not a ton of potential there. He resorts to pushing his shot at times and
struggles to stay consistent with his follow through. Free throw shooting is typically a
good metric as far as progression in a jump shot goes, and he only shot 58.6% from the
free throw line on limited attempts this year. He does not see the floor very well as a
passer, after averaging six potential assists per 100 passes (11th percentile among
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centers). On defense, he struggled on the defensive glass. Even though he is 6’11 he
only secured 5.2 DREB per 75 possessions (10th percentile among centers) and was
only in possession to go after 8.8 DREB per 75 possessions (7th percentile). This
shows a lack of IQ and a propensity for getting outrebounded as he only secured 62%
of his rebounding opportunities. In live action he struggled to do much. Opponents
shot 6.3% better against him than expected on rim attempts. His lack of vertical pop
and late rotations is most likely the reason for this. Pasecniks had a lackluster season,
but considering his contract was just added to the books midseason and Washington’s
strategy of signing forgotten prospects, he should stick for at least one more season.
2. Isaac Bonga (Non-Guaranteed $1,517,981)
[Probability to Add Positive Value on Current 2 Year Deal: 91.2%]:
Isaac Bonga adds real value as a backup wing. He has a good frame at 6’8 but needs to
add weight while being only 180lbs. On offense, he is a good passer and slasher with
potential to eventually be an above average shooter. After only playing 120 minutes
his rookie year in LA, he shot 35.2% from three on 71 attempts. These percentages do
not look bad on paper, but opponents did not respect his shot. He was left open on
47.3% of his threes and had a three-point shooting gravity in the 13th percentile
among wings. When getting downhill, Bonga does a good job of kicking out to
shooters. He created 17.4 potential assists per 100 passes this year (83rd percentile
among wings), but most of his teammates outside of Bradley Beal and Davis Bertans
could not convert. He was an aggressive passer and that is shown by the high
turnovers he had off of passes (29 of 58 total turnovers). He made good reads this
year, but just could not convert at times. He works extremely hard on defense and uses
his length to facilitate that effort into actual results. He averaged 2.6 deflections per 75
possessions (72nd percentile among wings). He can guard the one through three and
could extend to the four if he put on weight. His coach, Scott Brooks, spoke highly of
his low maintenance style and great work ethic. These sentiments combined with his
defensive value and youth should result in his contract becoming guaranteed.
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Free Agent Targets


Option #1:
Jerami Grant 6’8 210lbs 26 years old, PF/SF, Current Salary: $9,346,153
Projected Annual Salary: $12,000,000-$15,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 1.4%
Jerami Grant is a budding 3&D player. His value skyrocketed during the Nuggets playoff run.
Although his statistical profile regressed some from the regular season, he passed the eye test
with flying colors. He was a competent third or fourth option for the Nuggets when Jamal
Murray and Nikola Jokic received extra defensive attention. Over the past two seasons, Grant has
shown consistently on good volume from three, shooting 39.1% on 545 attempts. He is a plus
player in low volume isolations and at finishing around the rim. He is a competent finisher
around the rim and excels at drawing contact. He does not add much value as a playmaker, but
shot finishing is more of his offensive role and not shot creation. He is adept at most facets of
defense. He was versatile in his matchups, guarding every position for at least 10% of
possessions. He is a good rim deterrent in low volume, blocking 25% of all the shots that he
contested. He still has at least another year or two of growth before his peak. If his playmaking
improves on both ends of the floor, he could be a top 50 player in the league.

Option #2:
Derrick Jones Jr. 6’6 210lbs, 23 years old, SF, Current Salary: $1,645,357
Projected Annual Salary: $8,000,000-$12,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 3 Year Deal: 18.7%
Derrick Jones Jr. is a freak athlete, who provides a team with incredible versatility. He is quick
enough to guard two guards & he is tall and lengthy enough to give forwards fits. Offensively, he
is developing his three-point shooting. He is currently a rather poor shooter as he was left open
frequently (35.7% open), and his shooting gravity was in the 22nd percentile among wings. His
role is not as an offensive creator at all as he only averages 0.5 isolation possessions per 75
possessions and was a rather poor passer. He is already a good cutter and offensive rebounder.
He shot 72% on cuts (67th percentile). Defensively, he is at his best when guarding off the ball.
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He uses his seven-foot-long wingspan to read passing lanes extremely well and getting over to
the rim in rotations as a shot blocker. He averaged 2.3 steals and blocks per 36 minutes. He is
also is active on closeouts, contesting 5.8 threes per 75 possessions (93rd percentile among
wings). Jones has potential to add value in a multitude of ways as the wing spot.

Option #3:
Kris Dunn 6’3 205lbs 26 years old, PG, Current Salary: $5,348,007
Projected Annual Salary: $8,000,000-$10,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 59.5%
Kris Dunn just came off an all-defense level season, receiving the 11th most votes (31). He was
labeled by many as a best early in his career but has carved out a solid role as a strong perimeter
defender. On the offensive end of the floor, is where he struggled to add value. As an outside
shooter, he is one of the worst in the league (23.5% from three off the dribble, 26.6% from three
off the dribble). Some players such as Marcus Smart who struggle from three still add value as a
shooter because of their shot volume leading to gravity, but that is not the case for Dunn as he
was in the 4th percentile amongst guards in Total 3PT Gravity according to Bball Index. He is a
slight plus at getting to the rim and finishing. He is very much an average playmaker, typically
acting as a passive creator. Defensively, he can guard the one through three. He is one of the best
perimeter defenders in the league, especially as a play maker in passing lanes. He was in the
100th percentile for Steals per 75 and deflections per 75. His role is to guard his opponents’
number one option on the floor.

Option #4:
Maurice Harkless 6’7 220lbs 27 years old, SF, Current Salary: $11,011,234
Projected Annual Salary: Mid-Level Exception
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 40.9%
Maurice Harkless is a defensive minded wing. On offense, he was a negative on the perimeter.
He was consistently left open and ruined court spacing in LA and in NY. He is extremely
inconsistent as a shooter with two seasons shooting over 38% from three and four seasons
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shooting under 30% from three. He has consistently struggled to shoot with volume, as he has
never even attempted 200 shots from deep. He is a good slasher, shooting 67.7% around the rim
on 47% of his attempts, but that alone does not outweigh his lack of value on the perimeter. He is
a legitimate defensive wing that plays with intensity. Some of that intensity is shown by his
ability to recover loose balls. He recovered 86% of loose ball opportunities (91st percentile
among wings). Harkless is a consistent defensive wing with a high variance offensive game. This
is more of a boom or bust signing that could rely on his perimeter shooting.

Option #5:
Jevon Carter: 6’1 200lbs 25 years old, PG, Current Salary $1,416,852
Projected Annual Salary: $3,000,000-$6,000,000
Probability to Add Positive Value on Projected 2 Year Deal: 20.3%
Jevon Carter is an end of rotation signing to add value in specific matchups. Carter drew some
notoriety as a backup point guard during his eight-game run with the Suns in the bubble which
included a 20-point game against the Miami Heat. On the offensive end of the floor, he is only a
plus as a three-point shooter off the catch. He made threes at a good clip, but he did not face
much defensive focus. That 42% clip could face decline if he gets more attention from defenses
as well as when volume increases. Outside of that, Carter is a negative everywhere else on the
offensive side of the ball. Defensively, Carter is a top tier perimeter defender. He uses his body
extremely well and makes it tough for ball handlers. He is a tough defender both as a point of
attack defender and as a team defender.

Trade Scenarios
1. Denver Nuggets
Nuggets Receiving: Bradley Beal
Wizards Receiving: Gary Harris, Michael Porter Jr, 2021 1st
Round Pick
The possibility of this trade going through depends on the Wizards perceived value that John
Wall represents. If they view him as a sunk cost, it may be better to start a rebuild and move on
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from Bradley Beal. They can obtain some youth by looking to trade with the Nuggets. Beal is
hitting his prime at age 27 while Washington may not be able to take full advantage of it.
Michael Porter Jr and the 2021 first round pick and the center pieces of this deal for the Wizards
while Gary Harris is a salary matching piece. Harris could also provide value for Washington
depending on if he can find his offensive game again. Beal can add more immediate value for
Denver than a young wing with a troubling injury history and a first-round pick in the twenties.

2. Phoenix Suns
Suns Receiving: John Wall
Wizards Receiving: Ricky Rubio, 2020 1st Round Pick (10th
overall)
This trade is built upon Phoenix gambling on John Wall and looking to immediately contend. If
they think there is still value in Wall at his price point, this is a great trade for both teams. Wall
has a much higher ceiling than any player available at the 10th pick this year. He allows Devin
Booker to play more off ball as well. This deal would be great financially for Washington as they
could get over $120 million off their books while still receiving assets. Most salary dumps
require assets to also be given up but given the chance that Phoenix views Wall as an asset, they
can save a lot of money on their books.

3. Golden State Warriors


Warriors Receiving: Ish Smith, Thomas Bryant, Troy Brown Jr,
Rui Hachimura
Wizards Receiving: Andrew Wiggins, 2020 2nd overall pick, 2020
2nd Round Pick (48th overall)
This deal allows Washington to be competitive for the short term, while expanding their draft
capital going forward. Andrew Wiggins, is a polarizing wing that has regressed since his rookie
year, proving incapable of being a lead option on a competitive team. In this scenario, Wiggins
would become the third option in Washington’s offense behind Bradley Beal and John Wall.
Wiggins could benefit from the decreased offensive workload. The number two pick is the other
major asset for the Wizards. In this spot, Washington would be in prime position to select James
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Wiseman. Wiseman would slot perfectly into a lineup of Wall, Beal, Wiggins, and possibly
Davis Bertans. For Golden State, this deal gives them something they need desperately, depth.
Ish Smith, Thomas Bryant, Troy Brown Jr, and Rui Hachimura all would be rotation players for
the Golden State Warriors. Hachimura would be a great asset for the Warriors, as the 22-year-old
put together one of the most productive seasons by a rookie last year. He is poised on both ends
of the floor and would fit in well with the Warriors motion offense.
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Citations
Goldstein, J. (2020, October 11). NBA PIPM Player Projection. Retrieved from
https://winsadded.com/nba-pipm-player-projection/

InStat. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://basketball.instatscout.com/

Kubatko, J. (2004, April). Basketball Reference. Retrieved October 17, 2020, from
https://www.basketball-reference.com/

McBasketball, C. (2018, October 13). BBall Index. Retrieved from https://www.bball-


index.com/

NBA. (n.d.). NBA Stats. Retrieved from https://stats.nba.com/

Rissotto, I., Milner, Z., Purn, C., & Pearlman, S. (n.d.). NBA Draft Prospects & Basketball
Trends. Retrieved from https://www.thestepien.com/

Smith, K. (2016, May 20). NBA Salary & Roster Sheets. Retrieved from
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T2Eg_zvqNqQD_5TpE4Ns6xhElatXdLpYG1roZtRLyv
E/edit?usp=drive_web

Trigg, D. (2020, October 08). Mavs Pod: Cauley-Stein Dishes on Being the Mavs 'Enforcer'.
Retrieved October 26, 2020, from https://www.si.com/nba/mavericks/podcast/mavs-pod-cauley-
stein-dishes-on-being-dallas-enforcer

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