How energy policies will be shaped by increasing attention towards climate change in Pakistan?

Climate change is a hot issue of these days as it is affecting the world in several ways. As it can be
seen by changing patterns of weather in different regions of world climate is changing drastically.

The main causes of climate change include the emission of greenhouse gases, burning of fossil fuels,
deforestation, increasing livestock farming, excessive use of fertilizers, use of aerosol sprays and
many more. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and other fluorinated gases.
Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas which is added to the atmosphere by burning of the fossil.
Its concentration is 40% higher than it was when industrialization started. Other greenhouse gases are
emitted in smaller quantities, but they trap heat more effectively than carbon dioxide and in some
cases thousand times stronger.

Almost all the causes of climate change are due to human activities. Humans are cutting down trees,
burning fossil fuels at an alarming rate, using a lot of fertilizers and increasing amount of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere. Due to these anthropogenic activities, the ozone is also depleting.

The major effects of climate change are global warming, ozone layer depletion, a rise of sea levels,
melting of glaciers and destruction of habitats for many living organisms and cause of many diseases.
According to recent studies, the melting of glaciers is leading to the extinction of animals. The ozone
layer depletion is resulting in many skins and breathing diseases.
Globally, power generation is responsible for about 23 billion tons of carbon emissions per year
which is a direct cause of global warming. The intensity of summer and winter seasons have become
more intense than past. The frequency of floods has also increased drastically. The patterns of rain
are also disturbed by climate change. Now, the number of rains per season is also decreasing due to
the cutting of forests and many other environmental factors.

Social, environmental and economic impacts caused by climate change are of great concern in
developing countries like Pakistan. Pakistan is frequently facing natural hazards like floods,
droughts, and cyclones. These hazards, when combined with susceptibilities like poverty and wrong
political decisions, make people more vulnerable to effects of these hazards.

Pakistan’s greenhouse gases emissions have doubled in last 2 decades. On a global scale, Pakistan
ranks 135th in per capita GHG emissions in the world. The energy sector is the victim of abrupt
climate change in a country.

There is no path to protecting the climate without dramatically changing how we produce and use
electricity: nearly 40% of US CO2 pollution comes from power plants burning fossil fuels. But we
can turn things around. Renewable energy minimizes carbon pollution and has a much lower impact
on our environment. And it’s having its moment in the sun.

Conclusion: Climate change is expected to have noticeable effects in the Pakistan such as, a rise in
average temperatures in most regions, changes in precipitation amounts and seasonal patterns in many
regions, changes in the intensity and pattern of extreme weather events, and sea level rise. Some of
these effects have clear implications for energy production and use. For instance, average warming can
be expected to increase energy requirements for cooling and reduce energy requirements for warming.
Changes in precipitation could affect prospects for hydropower, positively or negatively. Increases in
storm intensity could threaten further disruptions of the sorts experienced by US in 2005 with Hurricane
Katrina. Concerns about climate change impacts could change perceptions and valuations of energy
technology alternatives. Any or all of these types of effects could have very real meaning for energy
policies, decisions, and institutions in the Pakistan, affecting discussions of courses of action and
appropriate strategies for risk management. 

In a developing country like Pakistan, a reliable, uninterrupted, and affordable energy

supply is a fundamental precondition for reducing CO2 emission, poverty, encouraging
investment, and boosting economic growth. Among other challenges, the newly elected
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government under the leadership of Imran Khan inherits a
very stagnant energy sector. Despite broad access to electricity (99 percent of the
population had access to electricity in 2016, compared to 59 percent of the population in
1990), the country experiences massive blackouts (load shedding of 6-8 hours a day for
households and 1-2 hours a day for the industry). Because of poor energy management,
Pakistan’s energy resources have been used inefficiently for decades. As a result, the
nation faces a serious energy crisis that has often stymied manufacturing and the service
sector and disrupted power supplies in communities and households across the nation.
According to a survey by the World Bank, 66.7 percent of the businesses in Pakistan cite
electricity shortages as a more significant obstacle to business than corruption (11.7
percent) and crime/terrorism (5.5 percent). In light of these factors, there is an urgent
need to innovate in the energy sector of the country.

Fortunately, Pakistan has a high renewable energy potential, which has been elaborated
in many studies on Pakistan. A recent report published by USAID attests to Pakistan’s
energy potential, stating that it can potentially produce 100,000 MW from solar energy
alone. Despite the potential, Pakistan remains “powerless” when it comes to adequately
powering lights for its homes, machinery for its factories, and stoves for its kitchens.
Data from many sources, including the Ministry of Water & Power and Pakistan
Economic Surveys, over the past five years show that Pakistan has been facing an
average shortfall of between 4,000-5,000 MW.

This acute energy crisis is a result of flawed energy policies pursued for decades, the
high cost of generation, and aging and inadequate transmission, among other causes. In
addition to transmission losses and distribution thefts, an entrenched bureaucratic
culture marked by poor organization, planning, and project implementation among
Pakistan’s power operating companies only compounds the problem.

Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month.
Power shortages are also rooted in Pakistan’s irrational and increasingly unaffordable
energy mix: 64 percent thermal, 30 hydropower, and 6 percent nuclear. A high reliance
on thermal power plants (which in turn are run by natural gas, oil, or coal) and
hydropower seldom assure a continuous flow of power. Heavy dependence on oil-based
energy makes power high-priced. The prevailing energy crisis is costly to the economy in
the form of huge subsidies and high circular debts. Politicians and policymakers in
Pakistan have made little real attempt to diversify the nation’s energy supplies and to
shift dependence form expensive and imported oil toward potentially cheaper and
cleaner resources available in the country (Pakistan’s dependence on oil imports is 24
percent, compared to India’s 18 percent and Bangladesh’s 21 percent). Pakistan’s
stubborn reliance on fossil fuels continued even after the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979.

The misguided energy mix also exacerbates the nation’s already serious environmental
problems, which manifests itself in poor air quality and unsafe drinking water. Pakistan
ranked a dismal 148th out of 175 countries, according to Yale and Columbia University’s
Environmental Performance Index.

One solution to Pakistan’s energy crisis (and interrelated environmental deterioration)

is to provide incentives for the development of distributed energy resources, i.e.,
encourage a shift toward renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, and biogas.
Fortunately, Pakistan is endowed with renewable energy resources. It not only has
potentially bountiful supplies of solar energy but also could tap possible sources of wind
power, especially along the coastal areas of the Arabian Sea. The prospects for
renewable energy in Pakistan are heartening. Energy experts estimate that Pakistan has
a total renewable energy potential of about 167.7 GW, more than enough to meet the
nation’s total demand for electricity.

Better late than never, Pakistan has started to acknowledge its renewable energy
potential as evidenced by the construction of Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park, with a
nameplate capacity of 1,000 MW. There is a need for more additional steps beyond the
Solar Park. In fact, all these steps should be part of a multipronged “energy
productivity” policy. By encouraging energy conservation (efficiency), on the one hand,
and facilitating a move toward clean renewables, on the other, the productivity policy
will not only enhance energy security but also improve the environment.

Energy Efficiency vs. Energy Productivity

Energy efficiency (doing more tasks with less energy, as defined by Berkeley physicist
Richard Muller) is “cheaper than cheap.” It doesn’t cost much. A McKinsey & Company
report finds that savings made from energy conservation and efficiency would be
enough to pay for projects such as expanding wind from energy production and
installing solar panels.

In general, discussions about energy efficiency often fixate on its ability to lower energy
consumption, reduce expenditures, and curtail greenhouse gas emissions. It is worth
exploring if this mantra would work in developing Pakistan.

Like any emerging economy, Pakistan focuses on growth and poverty alleviation, and
the additional goods and services needed to produce these gains. More business
activities, infrastructure, housing, education, and health services require more energy
consumption. Paradoxically, the very idea of energy efficiency remains unappreciated,
in part, by a perception that it is a tool designed to reduce rather than expand
consumption and production. Since the focus in Pakistan remains on growth, which the
nation views as central to its future good, energy efficiency is dismissed as shorthand for
cutting down on growth.

In fact, presenting energy efficiency as “doing more with less,” as is the case in
developed countries, tends to get lost in translation in countries such as Pakistan. Thus,
a change in the energy efficiency paradigm is needed to better promote energy efficiency
in a way that links such efforts to improved living standards and increased prosperity. A
more inclusive alternative narrative such as energy productivity should be advocated —
that is, producing more goods and services with the same energy (equivalently, “doing
more with the same”). As opposed to the traditional energy efficiency paradigm focusing
solely on fewer inputs (“more with less”), energy productivity focuses on generating
more outputs with the same inputs.

Beyond the reframing of energy efficiency as a rhetorical concept, there is a need for
developing a sound and thoughtful energy productivity policy framework. Such a policy
framework would inculcate renewable energy as a significant aspect of energy
productivity policy. In the process, it would ameliorate energy security, address
environmental degradation, stimulate economic growth, and, last but not least, mitigate
public worries.

However, the energy productivity policy and its subsequent implementation cannot be
viewed in a vacuum. Cautious deliberations by concerned institutions must take place to
advance the tactical and strategic goals that are sought. In this regard, the government
of Pakistan must play a prominent role not only to ensure political stability and
institutional revamp but also to guarantee regional peace and security.

Aside from the distinct challenges of financing “sunk” and “fixed” costs amid the historic
debts and chronic losses, another significant constraint is the lack of appropriate
technology in the implementation of energy productivity policy. Pakistan needs to stay
abreast of high technology to harness its renewable energy resources and materialize its
energy efficiency goals. There are studies that talk about technological impoverishment
of Pakistan. Technological penury is one prime reason why Pakistan has not been able to
capitalize on its high abundance of renewable energy potential. The lack of technological
knowhow also helps to explain why non-hydro renewables currently account for less
than 4 percent (roughly 900 MW) of total installed electricity capacity against the
medium-term plan of having a minimum capacity of 9,700 MW by 2030. Given this, the
role of technology transfer in developing renewables and adopting energy conservation
is worth exploring.

To sum it up, I promote an alternative approach of energy productivity policy that not
only redefines energy efficiency, but also includes it along with an emphasis on
renewable sources to address energy crises in Pakistan. Concerned ministries would
have to be cognizant of the conditions in the energy productivity policy that would
ameliorate power blackouts. For successful implementation of the policy, the
government would have to ensure that regulatory agencies coordinate their efforts with
power companies to improve energy distribution, generation, and transmission.
Undoubtedly, the government would show its firm resolve in promoting energy
productivity reforms and eliminating constraints to effective energy productivity policy
implementation. Only then the nation will witness an “energized” homeland, healthy
environment, improved economy, and, ultimately a better quality of life for all citizens.