Citigroup Peabody Coal
Citigroup Peabody Coal
Citigroup Peabody Coal
Materials
Conference
December 2, 2010
Vic Svec
Senior Vice President
Investor Relations and
Corporate Communications
1
Statement on
Forward-Looking Information
Some of the following information contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of
1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and is intended to come within the safe -harbor
protection provided by those sections.
Our forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions that the company believes are reasonable, but they are
open to a wide range of uncertainties and business risks that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations as of
Oct. 19, 2010. These factors are difficult to accurately predict and may be beyond the company’s control. The company does n ot
undertake to update its forward-looking statements. Factors that could affect the company’s results include, but are not limited to:
demand for coal in United States and international power generation and steel production markets; price volatility and demand ,
particularly in higher-margin products and in our trading and brokerage businesses; reductions and/or deferrals of purchases by
major customers and ability to renew sales contracts; credit and performance risks associated with customers, suppliers, trading,
banks and other financial counterparties; geologic, equipment, permitting and operational risks related to mining; transporta tion
availability, performance and costs; availability, timing of delivery and costs of key supplies, capital equipment or commodities
such as diesel fuel, steel, explosives and tires; impact of weather on demand, production and transportation; successful
implementation of business strategies, including our Btu Conversion and generation development initiatives; negotiation of labor
contracts, employee relations and workforce availability; changes in postretirement benefit and pension obligations and fundi ng
requirements; replacement and development of coal reserves; access to capital and credit markets and availability and costs o f
credit, margin capacity, surety bonds, letters of credit, and insurance; effects of changes in interest rates and currency exchange
rates (primarily the Australian dollar); effects of acquisitions or divestitures; economic strength and political stability of countries in
which we have operations or serve customers; legislation, regulations and court decisions or other government actions, includ ing
new environmental requirements, changes in income tax regulations or other regulatory taxes; litigation, including claims not yet
asserted; and other risks detailed in the company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The use of
“Peabody,” “the company,” and “our” relate to Peabody, its subsidiaries and majority-owned affiliates.
EBITDA or Adjusted EBITDA is defined as income from continuing operations before deducting net interest expense, income
taxes, asset retirement obligation expense, and depreciation, depletion and amortization. EBITDA, which is not calculated
identically by all companies, is not a substitute for operating income, net income or cash flow as determined in accordance w ith
United States generally accepted accounting principles. Management uses EBITDA as a key measure of operating performance
and also believes it is a useful indicator of the company’s ability to meet debt service and capital expenditure requirements.
10/19/10 2
Peabody Energy: Catalysts for Growth
U.S.
● Largest producer in lowest cost, highest growth regions
● Expanding margins via strong contracting, stable costs
● Extending PRB reach into Eastern U.S. and Asia
Australia
● Expanding platform via organic growth
Asia
● Advancing projects in China, Mongolia, India
and Indonesia
Global Trading & Brokerage
● Expanding platform via new offices
3
Delivering Superior Results
30%
30%
26%
25%
25% 24%
19%
20%
15%
13%
10%
6%
5%
0%
BTU Global A B C D E F
Source: Gross margin data obtained from publicly filed documents for the period ending Sept. 30, 2010. 4
Early Stages of
Coal’s Supercycle
Major New Global Build Out of
Coal Generation Under Way
Generation Demand Driven by Asia and Growing Share of Electricity
MetMet
two-thirds by 2020
Tonnes)
2,000
Tonnes)
Coal
India
● Bulk of market
Coal
(Million
Demand
1,600 1,200
China China
Production (Million
share growth in China
Demand(Million
and India
SteelProduction
1,200
(MillionTonnes)
800
Tonnes)
structural shortage of Steel Other
ROW 400
0 0
2010 2015 2020
Source: World Steel Association; third party data and Peabody analysis. 7
Developing Asia Represents 90% of
Long-Term Global Coal Demand
China and India Lead Long-Term Coal Demand Growth
+110
+150 +2,210
+690 +380
+50
Tonnes in Millions
Tonnes in Millions
Colombia
120 120
S. Africa
China Russia
5%-25%
Indonesia
80 Other 80 15%-25%
Pacific
~20%
40 40
Australia
Atlantic 30%-60%
~25%
0 0
India
Australia 30-40
Brazil
Atlantic (20-25)
Tonnes in millions.
Source: Peabody analysis. 11
China Dependent on Imports to
Balance Supply / Demand
Shortfall Driving Net Imports Reliance
● Dramatic, sustained
demand growth
● Consolidation, rising
domestic costs
● Lack of premier coking coal
● Supply growth distant
from load
● Growing coastal steel mills
and power plants
● ~600 MTPA of coastal coal
movements already occurring
12
The Result: Ongoing Reliance
on Coal Imports by China
2007
2005
2003
● Imports projected to
250
grow ~200 MTPA in
5 years
Tonnes in Millions
200
● Generation growing
150 6% – 8% per year
100
Thermal ● 75 GW of new coal-
Forecast
based generation
50 under construction
Met
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Data and estimates based on industry reports and Peabody analysis. Units under construction have projected start dates of 2011 – 2015. 14
Expanding Australia Platform:
Targeting Sales Up to 40 MTPA by 2014
Unpriced Met Volumes: >95% in 2011; 100% in 2012
Unpriced Seaborne Thermal Volumes: ~65% in 2011; ~85% in 2012
Up to
42% Up to
15 15 45%
Tons in Millions
10 10
15.0 – 12.0 –
17.0 15.0
11.5 – 9.5 –
12.5 10.0
5 9.6 5 6.9
0 0
2009 2010 2014-15 2009 2010 2014-15
2009 values are ‘as reported’ actuals. 15
Significant Progress in Peabody’s
Australia Project Pipeline
Sufficient Rail/Port Access to Accommodate Growth
Metropolitan
1 MT HCC, $70 million
Burton
2 – 3 MT HCC
Met
Millennium
2 – 3 MT SHCC/PCI
Denham/Goonyella Corridor
5 – 6 MT HQHCC
Seaborne
Wilpinjong
Thermal
Wambo
3 – 4 MT Thermal/PCI
Singapore
global trading and
Jakarta brokerage operations
$200
● Continued expansion
EBITDA in Millions
15 MTPA
Shanghai
Open-Cut
JV Project
Zhejiang
20 MTPA
Open-Cut
Legend JV Project Fujian
Closed deal
Guangdong Taiwan
Hong Kong
Near-term Initiative 15 MTPA
Open-Cut JV
Mid-term Initiative
Project
Long-term Initiative
18
Peabody Positioning to Serve
Fastest Growing Import Nation
Major Coastal Plant Build Out
to Access Import Coal
Peabody Positioning
● Met coal from
Australia operations
● Thermal coal via
COALTRADE
● Exploring long-term
coal supplies and
other strategic
ventures with
Coal India
Source: Platts. 19
Peabody Best Positioned in
Fastest Growing U.S. Regions
U.S. Coal Demand On Pace for
60 – 80 Million Ton Recovery in 2010
Electricity
Generation
● New coal generation
● Additional economic
activity
1,050
● Improving industrial load
● Further coal-to-gas
reversal
● Result: Stockpile levels
1,000 expected to fall
2009 2010
Source: Energy Information Administration; MSHA; National Mining Association and other third-party sources. 21
U.S. Contracting Strategy Matches
Shape of Economic Recovery
● Guarded approach
near term
– ~90% priced for 2011
● Significant leverage to
market upside long term
– 2012: 35% to 45%
available to price
– 2013: ~85% available
to price
22
SPRB and Illinois Basin: Majority
of U.S. Coal Demand Growth
Pursuing Mongolia
Multiple PRB Export Opportunities Opportunities, including
in Development JV with Winsway
26
Citi Basic
Materials
Conference
December 2, 2010
Vic Svec
Senior Vice President
Investor Relations and
Corporate Communications
27