The Dividend Month Premium

Samuel M. Hartzmark

David H. Solomon*

First Version: September 2011

This Version: October 2012

Abstract: We document an asset-pricing anomaly whereby companies have positive abnormal

returns in months when a dividend is predicted. Abnormal returns in predicted dividend months

are high relative to other companies, and relative to dividend-paying companies in months

without a predicted dividend, making risk-based explanations unlikely. The anomaly is as large

as the value premium, but less volatile. The premium is consistent with price pressure from

dividend-seeking investors. Measures of liquidity and demand for dividends are associated with

larger price increases in the period before the ex-day (when there is no news about the dividend),

and larger reversals afterwards.

JEL Classification Codes: G12, G14

Keywords: Mispricing, Dividends, Behavioral Finance, Price Pressure

*Both authors are from the University of Southern California, Marshall School of Business, 3670 Trousdale
Parkway, Bridge Hall Suite 308, Los Angeles, CA, 90089. Email at [email protected] and
[email protected], respectively. We would like to thank Daniel Carvalho, Harry DeAngelo, Wayne
Ferson, Uri Loewenstein, David Offenberg, Pavel Savor, Zheng Sun, Chendi Zhang and seminar participants at the
University of Southern California, the California Corporate Finance Conference, the European Finance Association
2012 Meetings, and the Queens Behavioral Finance Conference for helpful comments and suggestions. All
remaining errors are our own.

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 Most theoretical models used in finance assume perfect liquidity, meaning that investors

can purchase or sell arbitrary amounts of a firm’s securities without affecting the price. However,

there is empirical evidence that demand curves for stocks slope downwards. A number of papers

show price changes around the inclusion of stocks in an index, a one-off event that results in a

largely permanent increase in demand but does not obviously contain information (Shleifer,

1986; Wurgler and Zhuravskaya, 2002; Greenwood, 2005, and others). But should price changes

be expected for predictable and temporary shifts in demand? In such cases, arbitrageurs ought to

have the best chance of reducing price impact by taking the opposite side of these trades. If

predictable price patterns result from demand shifts in large, liquid companies around regularly

scheduled, highly salient events, this presents a challenge for notions of market efficiency.

In this paper we study the reaction of stock prices when companies are expected to issue

dividends. The lead-up to dividend payment is a period when the demand and supply of shares

may shift. Investors who wish to receive the dividend, for whatever reason, must purchase the

stock before the ex-day, while conversely, those who do not wish to receive the dividend must

sell before the ex-day. At the same time, liquidity suppliers and arbitrageurs may be expected to

enter the market to offset any price impact that dividend-motivated trading is having. If

dividend-seeking investors are more numerous than dividend-avoiding investors, and if

arbitrageurs are unable or unwilling to supply sufficient liquidity to the market (both empirical

questions), then excess demand for the shares will increase the price.

Consistent with the above intuition, we find evidence of mispricing of stocks whereby

companies have significantly higher returns in months when they are expected to issue a

dividend. We term this the ‘dividend month premium’. Rather than condition on the actual

payment of dividends, we forecast a ‘predicted dividend’ if the company paid a quarterly

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dividend 3, 6, 9 or 12 months ago, a semi-annual dividend 6 or 12 months ago, or an annual

dividend 12 months ago. A portfolio that buys all stocks expected to issue a dividend this month

earns abnormal returns of 41 basis points. Other specifications produce even higher returns – a

portfolio of companies that had a semi-annual dividend six months ago has a four-factor alpha of

115 basis points per month.

The returns in predicted dividend months are unusually high on two dimensions - first,

relative to all other companies, and second, relative to the same set of dividend-paying stocks in

months when they are not expected to have a dividend. A portfolio that is long expected dividend

payers and short all other companies (‘between companies’) earns abnormal returns of 53 basis

points relative to a 4 factor model. Meanwhile, a portfolio that is long companies in the month of

their predicted dividend and short same companies in other months (‘within companies’) earns

abnormal returns of 37 basis points.

These findings make the dividend month premium unlikely to be driven by risk. In

particular, the ‘within companies’ portfolio exploits only the time-series variation in dividend-

paying companies, resulting in a portfolio with virtually zero loadings on any conventional risk

factors. The reason is that the portfolio is long each company with quarterly dividends for 4

months of the year and short the same companies (at half the weight) for 8 months of the year.

Hence, any fixed loadings on risk factors will tend to cancel out, making systematic risk a less

likely explanation. Any explanation relating to risk would need to rely on time-varying risk

loadings, with companies being systematically riskier in months of expected dividend payment.

We hypothesize that the dividend month premium is due to price pressure from dividend-

seeking investors in the lead-up to dividend payment. Existing theories of dividends can provide

some basis for this view. Theories of catering, such as in Baker and Wurgler (2004) and Li and

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Lie (2006), propose that investors may have an underlying demand for dividends themselves,

such as for psychological or institutional reasons. A desire for dividends and a positive discount

rate may cause investors to prefer to purchase dividend-paying stocks immediately before the

dividend is paid rather than immediately afterwards (and prefer to sell the stock after the

dividend payment, rather than before). Price pressure around dividend payment may also arise

under dividend clientele theories, whereby groups of investors desire dividend payments for

reasons such as different tax treatment, a need for income streams etc. 1 There is likely to be trade

between investors with different tax rates in the lead-up to the ex-dividend day ( Michaely and

Vila, 1996; Michaely, Vila and Wang, 1996), and such trades may impact prices.

To determine whether price pressure explains our results, we examine daily

characteristic-adjusted returns within the dividend month. We find that abnormal returns are

present for virtually the entire period between the announcement date and the ex-dividend date.

We find that there are abnormal returns on the actual declaration day (12 basis points), the

predicted declaration day (3 basis points) and on the ex-day (26 basis points). Most importantly,

there are also abnormal returns of 17 basis points in the period between the declaration and ex-

dividend days. While previous research has highlighted the importance of returns on the ex-day,

we find that these are less than half of the total abnormal returns during the dividend period.

The abnormal returns in the interim period between the announcement and ex-day are

consistent with price pressure due to demand for dividends, but are difficult to reconcile with

alternative explanations. During this time there is no news being released about the dividend, nor

is there uncertainty about the dividend size. In addition, an investor who sells the share before

the ex-day does not receive the dividend. Thus, holding dividend-paying shares only for the

1
Dividend clienteles have been examined by Black and Scholes (1974), Elton and Gruber (1970), Allen, Bernardo
and Welch (2000), Graham and Kumar (2006), Becker, Ivković and Weisbenner (2011), and many others.

4
interim period results in the same tax consequences as holding any other non-dividend-paying

stock for the same length of time, and these returns are not limited to investors of a particular tax

treatment. As such, it is surprising from an asset pricing perspective that there should be

abnormal returns.

If the price increases before payment are a result of price pressure, then there ought to be

an increase in selling after dividend payment that results in negative returns. Consistent with this,

abnormal returns in the 40 days after the ex-dividend day are -72 basis points. This effect is large

enough to offset the gains during the dividend month, reinforcing the conclusion that the main

effect is a time-series one and that the price increases are reversed by subsequent price decreases.

We also show that the high returns before the ex-day and the subsequent reversals are

larger among less liquid securities, for which changes in demand for shares ought to have a

bigger effect. Less liquid securities, measured using the Amihud (2002) variable, have more

positive interim returns, more positive ex-day returns, and more negative returns (i.e. larger

reversals) in the 40 days after the ex-day. Interim and ex-day returns are also significantly lower

when there is a greater length of time between the announcement and the ex-dividend day, and

returns after the ex-day are higher (i.e. smaller reversals). This is consistent with traders having

more price impact when they are forced to buy shares over a shorter period of time. Third,

returns are larger for companies with higher dividend yields, consistent with dividend-seeking

investors having more demand for shares that pay larger dividends. The fact that these variables

predict larger price increases before the ex-day and larger reversals afterwards is strong evidence

of price pressure.

While it is difficult to determine whether the underlying source of demand for the

dividends themselves is primarily due to tax-related clientele effects or from catering effects,

5
there is some evidence that tentatively supports the latter interpretation. In particular, we find

that the dividend month premium is 15 basis points higher during recessions, and is also higher

during periods of high market volatility (as measured by the VIX index). If the catering demand

for dividends arises from psychology, as Baker and Wurgler (2004) suggest, it may be due to a

perception that dividends represent a safe, guaranteed source of revenue. If so, such demand for

dividends may increase with economic uncertainty, as risk aversion is higher and the availability

of alternative safe assets is reduced. However, it is also possible that trading from tax-related

clienteles may have a larger effect in recessions and volatile markets if aggregate liquidity is

reduced, so this evidence is not conclusive.

We also present evidence that the dividend month premium is driven by dividends

specifically, rather than other events that coincide with dividend payment. The dividend month

premium does not appear to be driven by the earnings announcement premium, as in Beaver

(1968), Frazzini and Lamont (2006), and Savor and Wilson (2011). The effect is not restricted to

certain calendar months of the year, nor is it driven by the seasonality of returns described in

Heston and Sadka (2008). We show that the dividend month premium is not driven by news

about the size of the dividend. By contrast, when companies omit dividend payments the effect is

not present, as expected if this is driven by the dividend itself and not by other events during the

month.

While we are certainly not the first to examine the effects of dividends on asset prices, we

contribute to the literature in part by exploring the impact of predictable dividend payment using

modern, calendar-time asset-pricing methods. The results are striking. Notwithstanding its lack

of loading on risk factors, the within-companies portfolio has abnormal returns as large as the

value premium, but with considerably less volatility. The within-companies portfolio has an

6
annual Sharpe Ratio of 0.195, higher than the SMB, HML and UMD portfolios, with the long-

only dividend month portfolio having a Sharpe Ratio of 0.421. In addition, the strategy produces

positive excess returns in 73 out of 83 years, with the largest negative annual return being only

-4.6%. The effects are not limited to small or illiquid stocks: dividend-paying companies tend to

be larger and more visible, and the patterns in returns hold on a value-weighted as well as an

equal-weighted basis2. Most of the abnormal returns are from the long side of the difference

portfolio, rather than the short side (for which costs of implementing the strategy are higher).

Due to dividend payments being highly persistent, significant alphas can be obtained using

dividend information lagged up to 20 years. Our findings contribute to the literature on asset

pricing anomalies that finds abnormal returns around regular, predictable events.3

Our paper also contributes to the literature on the pricing of dividends. We document a

result not apparent from earlier papers that examined short periods during the dividend month –

namely, that there are abnormal returns present during the entire dividend period, that there are

large reversals in the weeks afterwards, and that both patterns appear to share a common

underlying cause of investor price pressure. We also describe how dividend returns (and

reversals) are significantly higher during recessions and volatile markets, both somewhat

surprising facts from the perspective of standard theories of dividend payment. Our findings raise

important questions as to what underlying model of investor demand for dividends is causing

prices to predictably increase well in advance of the ex-day, and reverse in the period afterwards.

Part of the challenge for such models is to explain why dividend-seeking investors do not

purchase the share a few days earlier, and capture the abnormal returns and the dividend.

2
Many anomalies tend to be concentrated in smaller stocks, including post-earnings announcement drift (Chordia et
al, 2008), momentum (Hong, Lim and Stein, 2000), and others.
3
These include the earnings announcement premium (Beaver, 1968; Frazzini and Lamont, 2006; Savor and Wilson,
2011), the January effect (Keim, 1983), return seasonality (Heston and Sadka, 2008), one month reversals
(Jegadeesh, 1990), momentum (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), and 3-5 year reversals (DeBondt and Thaler, 1985).

7
 The remainder of the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 describes the hypotheses.

Section 3 discusses the data. Section 4 presents the main results of the paper, section 5 examines

alternative explanations for our findings, and section 6 concludes.

2. Literature review and hypotheses

2.1 Market efficiency

The null hypothesis is that under simple models of market efficiency (Fama (1970)),

using past information in dividend payments should not be able to generate risk-adjusted returns.

Dividend payments tend to be quite stable over time (in the sample, 88% of firms who paid a

dividend 12 months ago pay a dividend in the current month). While the news component of

dividend announcements ought to affect prices, any predictable aspect of dividend

announcements or payments should not result in abnormal risk-adjusted returns.

2.2 Price pressure

Our main alternative hypothesis is that returns are high because of predictable price

pressure in the lead-up to dividend payment. During this time, the supply and demand of

dividend-paying shares will be determined in part by investors trading based on the dividends

themselves, and in part by liquidity providers and arbitrageurs hoping to profit from short-term

price movements. If there are some investors who receive utility from dividends and discount

rates are positive, these investors will have a higher willingness to pay for companies that will

pay dividends sooner. As a consequence, these investors will be more willing to buy the stock, or

less willing to sell the stock, immediately before the dividend is paid rather than immediately

afterwards. This does not require that the same set of investors are purchasing the stock

immediately before the ex-day and selling immediately afterwards, however. Investors may be

8
purchasing the same stocks that they were already going to buy, but accelerating the purchase to

occur before the ex-day (and similarly, delaying planned sales until after the ex-day).

If the trades of arbitrageurs and liquidity suppliers are insufficient to offset the trades

from dividend-seeking investors, then we expect excess demand for dividend-paying shares,

inasmuch as the quantity demanded will exceed the quantity supplied at the old price, and the

increase in price will restore equilibrium. In this case, the underlying demand for dividends

themselves (which we alternatively refer to as a desire or a willingness to pay for dividends)

translates into changes in the supply and demand over time of dividend-paying assets.

The existence of price pressure from dividend-seeking investors would suggest that there

will be price increases in the lead-up to dividend payment, and price decreases afterwards. In

addition, the announcement of dividends will resolve investor uncertainty about whether the

dividend will be paid, and thus excess demand may increase around the announcement as well.

Price pressure as a general concept does not explain why there is an underlying demand

for dividends. As noted earlier, a number of theoretical models are consistent (at least in spirit)

with the intuition above. These include catering theories that firms respond to investor demand

for dividends due to psychological or institutional reasons as in Baker and Wurgler (2004), or

from the trading of dividend clienteles with different tax rates such as in Michaely, Vila and

Wang (1996).

Price pressure, regardless of how it arises, leads to specific predictions about returns.

First, returns should be related to liquidity, as less liquid securities are likely to experience

greater price movements from a given level of excess buying. Second, price pressure is likely to

increase in the lead-up to dividend payment. If investors only wish to receive the dividend, they

may not want to hold the stock for longer than necessary as it would expose them to price

9
fluctuations. As the length of time before receiving the dividend becomes shorter, these investors

are more likely to purchase the stock. Third, price pressure is likely to lead to reversals after the

dividend is paid, either due to tax arbitrage traders unwinding their positions or catering

investors having a lower preference for the stock. Such reversals should be related to the level of

price increases that occurred before, and thus be driven by the same types of variables.

2.3 Alternative hypotheses

There are a number of papers that examine the relation between dividends and stock

returns, and may predict alternative reasons for high returns in months of dividend issuance.

2.3.1 The ex-day effect

One of the most studied aspects of dividends and stock returns is the returns on ex-

dividend days. As early as Campbell and Beranek (1955), it has been found that the ex-dividend

day stock price change is typically less than the full amount of the dividend. This has been

argued by Elton and Gruber (1970) to be driven by dividend clienteles and the tax-related

consequences for the marginal investor.4 Under this hypothesis, the taxability of dividends for

the marginal investor causes the price drop on ex-dividend days to be equal to the after-tax value

of the dividend to the marginal investor (which will be less than the face value).

Subject to the possibility of price pressure before the ex-day (as discussed above),

theories of the ex-day tend to predict that price increases should be limited to the ex-day itself.

As a result, we test whether dividend month price effects are limited to the ex-day itself.

4
See Elton, Gruber and Blake (2005), Green and Rydqvist (1999), McDonald (2001), Graham, Michaely and
Roberts (2003), Bell and Jenkinson (2002), and numerous others. Other proposed explanations for the ex-dividend
day effect include microstructure arguments (Dubofsky, 1992; Bali and Hite, 1998; Frank and Jagannathan, 1998,
and others), and dynamic clientele models related to taxation (e.g. Rantapuska, 2007; Koski and Scruggs, 1998;
Graham and Kumar, 2006; Felixson and Liljeblom, 2008). For a discussion of the literature exploring why firms pay
dividends, see Allen and Michaely (2003)).

10
2.3.2 Announcement returns, risk and pessimism

A smaller literature has examined the returns on dividend announcement days, most

notably Kalay and Loewenstein (1985) and Eades, Hess and Kim (1985). Both papers find that

dividend announcements have positive returns, and Eades, Hess and Kim (1985) find that

aggregate returns are positive even if dividend omissions are included. Kalay and Loewenstein

(1985) argue that the high returns could be explained by risk, as stock returns are also more

volatile on announcement days. Dividend announcements could also be periods when the firm’s

returns are correlated with macroeconomic risks, as Savor and Wilson (2011) argue holds for the

earnings announcement premium. A risk explanation predicts that dividend months should

exhibit either loadings on standard factors (for systematic risk), or higher volatility (for both

systematic and idiosyncratic risk).

Eades, Hess and Kim (1985) argue that investors may be overly pessimistic about the

likelihood of the firm being able to continue dividend payment. In such a case, then they should

on average experience a positive surprise around the period when announcements are expected.

One way to distinguish this explanation is that if investors are overly pessimistic, the returns

effect should be limited to the announcement itself, as this is when the news is released.

2.3.3 Interim returns, post-period returns and the Brennan (1970) model

Returns during the interim period between the announcement and the ex-day have

received less systematic study. Empirically, Lakonishok and Vermaelen (1986) find that the five

days before the ex-day have abnormal positive returns. Eades, Hess and Kim (1985) examine the

period around the announcement day, and find that after controlling for ex-day effects there are

not abnormal returns after dividend announcements. In terms of the post-period returns,

Lakonishok and Vermaelen (1986) find that the five days after the ex-day have negative returns.

11
 Theoretically, there are fewer models that make clear predictions of high returns in the

interim period. One possible explanation is the Brennan (1970) model of taxes and dividends,

which predicts that pre-tax risk-adjusted returns should be higher for companies with a higher

dividend yield. As Kalay and Michaely (2000) discuss, this is a cross-sectional prediction,

meaning that dividend-paying companies should have high returns on average, including during

the interim period.5 A key distinction between the Brennan (1970) model and price pressure is

that price pressure predicts positive returns before the ex-day, but negative returns afterwards,

whereas Brennan (1970) predicts high returns in general.

3. Data and summary statistics

The data on daily and monthly stock returns and dividends come from the Center for

Research in Security Prices. Monthly returns run from January 1927 until December 2011.

Dividend declaration dates and ex-dividend dates are taken from the CRSP daily file. We

consider shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), American Stock Exchange

(AMEX) and NASDAQ exchange. We consider only common shares of US companies (CRSP

share code 10 or 11), and thereby exclude ADRs, various ownership units (e.g., limited

partnership interests), closed-end funds, REITs, and shares of companies incorporated outside

the United States. We also exclude shares with prices less than $5 in the previous month and

firms missing a price in the previous month, with these restrictions applying to the previous day

for the daily return analysis.

5
The relation between dividend yield and expected returns has been studied in a number of papers: Litzenberger and
Ramaswamy (1979, 1980, 1982) find a relation between dividend yield and expected return, while Black and
Scholes (1974) and Miller and Scholes (1982) do not. Kalay and Michaely (2000) reconcile these results by showing
that the relation between dividend yield and returns holds only when returns are measured in shorter periods (up to a
month) around the ex-dividend date, and thus is better understood as a time-series effect, which is less consistent
with Brennan (1970).

12
 For dividend payments, we consider ordinary cash dividends paid in US dollars (CRSP

distribution codes starting with ‘12’). Because we are interested in predicting future dividends,

we focus on dividends that are recurring in nature, namely quarterly, semi-annual, and annual

dividends (third digits of 3, 4 and 5). We also include unknown and missing frequency dividends

(third digits 0 and 1) as being equivalent to a quarterly dividend. We exclude year-end or final,

special, interim and non-recurring dividends, although the main results are robust to their

inclusion, as well as being robust to excluding unknown and missing dividends. Overall, 65.4% of

firm/month observations paid some cash dividend in the prior 12 months. 89.25% of all dividend

observations are quarterly, 1.50% of dividends are semi-annual, 0.48% are annual, and 8.09%

are of unknown or missing frequency. Because we are generally examining dividend vs. non-

dividend months for companies, we exclude companies that paid a monthly dividend in the

previous 12 months unless otherwise noted (0.7% of dividend observations). Results are robust

to the inclusion of monthly dividend observations. The results are also very similar if only

quarterly dividends are included. Dividend months refer to months with an ex-date unless

otherwise noted. Table I presents summary statistics for companies that paid a dividend in the

past 12 months and those that did not.

4. Results

4.1 Predicted dividend months and raw returns

In this section we explore the question of whether dividend-paying stocks have different

returns in months of expected dividend payment. The concept of expected dividend payment is

an important one, as actual dividend payment involves both a news component and a predictable

component. Companies are known to be reluctant to omit dividends, as shown by John and

Williams (1985), Bernheim (1991), and Nissim and Ziv (2001). As a result, conditioning on the

13
existence of a dividend announcement will exclude the negative returns of dividend omissions,

resulting in a sample with high returns, as in Kalay and Loewenstein (1985). However, because

announcements are not known with certainty ahead of time, this portfolio is not tradable. Instead,

the relevant asset-pricing question is whether there are high returns in the periods when an

announcement is expected. This will address the fact that returns are lower if the announcement

is delayed or the dividend is omitted, as noted in Kalay and Loewenstein (1986) and Eades, Hess

and Kim (1985).

Precisely because companies are reluctant to omit dividends, the existence of a dividend

payment is quite predictable using the timing of past payments. We forecast using the following

rule: a company has a ‘predicted dividend’ in month t if it paid a quarterly dividend in months

t-3, t-6, t-9, or t-12, a semi-annual dividend in months t-6 or t-12, an annual dividend in months

t-12, or a dividend of unknown frequency in months t-3, t-6, t-9, or t-12 (excluding the unknown

dividends does not affect the results). In Table II, we explore how returns vary based on the

timing of past dividends. In Panel A, we consider dividends of all frequencies (monthly,

quarterly, semi-annual, annual, unknown and missing). We group stocks according to when the

dividend was paid: 1 month ago, 2 months ago etc. up to 12 months ago.

It is important to note that while the conditioning is on the month that contains the ex-

day, this does not mean that it is only the ex-day that is of interest. The median time between the

announcement and the ex-day is ten days, and hence the month that includes the ex-day will ex-

month will in many cases include at least a large part of the interim period, and often the

announcement as well. The advantage of using a monthly returns measure is that it makes it easy

to correct for known determinants of expected returns (size, book-to-market¸ momentum) using

14
factor regressions, and the estimates of alpha thus obtained have a clear interpretation in terms of

asset-pricing theory and allow for comparison with other anomalies.

Table II Panel A presents average returns, standard deviation of returns and the

probability of dividend payments in the current month according to past dividend timing. It

shows the patterns in abnormal returns common throughout the paper, namely that the returns are

higher in months when dividends are expected to be paid. The four months with the highest

average returns are those when a dividend is expected to be paid (12, 6, 3 and 9 months ago, with

returns of 1.43%, 1.43%, 1.41% and 1.40% respectively). Average returns are lowest one month

after a dividend is expected to be paid (10, 4, 7 months and 1 month ago, with returns of 1.03%,

1.03%, 1.04%, and 1.06% respectively). Expected dividend months also have the lowest standard

deviation of returns. The four lowest standard deviations months are for dividends 3, 9, 6 and 12

months ago (9.61%, 9.64%, 9.65%, and 9.65% respectively). The four most volatile months, by

contrast, are immediately before an expected dividend (2, 5, 8 and 11 months ago).

The result that the high return dividend months also have lower volatility suggests that

the explanation in Kalay and Loewenstein (1985), whereby high announcement day returns also

have higher risk, does not seem to hold for the dividend month as a whole. Panel A also shows

the persistence of dividend payments. Companies that paid dividends 3, 6 and 9 and 12 months

ago have probabilities of paying dividends in the current month equal to 85%, 85%, 84% and

88% respectively (slightly higher if only quarterly dividends are considered).

Panel B shows the distribution of monthly returns for portfolios formed using our formal

definition of predicted dividends. Months with a predicted dividend have average returns of

1.38%, and a standard deviation of 5.76%. Companies with a dividend in the last 12 months that

do not have a predicted dividend this month have average returns of 1.02% and a standard

15
deviation of 5.75%. Companies who did not pay a dividend in the past 12 months have an

average return of 1.01%, and a standard deviation of 8.52%. Hence, the portfolio of companies

predicted to pay dividends has higher expected returns and the same standard deviation of returns

as the portfolio of past payers not predicted to pay dividends this month. Consequently, predicted

dividend payers have the highest Sharpe ratio of the three categories. This suggests that predicted

dividend payers are not more risky, a question to which we turn next.

4.2 Abnormal returns in dividend months

While predicted dividend payers have higher expected returns, the central asset pricing

question is whether these higher returns represent compensation for some source of risk that is

important to investors. It may be that companies that pay dividends are more exposed to

systematic risk, and the high returns reflect this different risk loading. We consider this question

in several regards. The first is the level of abnormal returns to predicted dividend payers under

standard models of expected returns. The second is to compare predicted dividend payers with

other companies: all other companies not predicted to pay a dividend this month (‘between

companies’), and those companies that paid dividends in the past year but which are not

predicted to pay a dividend in the current month (‘within companies’).

Systematic risk may be a likely explanation of differences in returns between companies.

The short side of the between-companies portfolio will include companies that never pay

dividends, as well as dividend-paying companies in non-dividend months. Dividend-paying and

non-paying companies differ in many economic respects: as Table I indicates, dividend-paying

stocks have larger market capitalization, and a higher book-to-market ratio. Dividend payment

may be correlated with economy-wide risks that investors care about, and such risk exposure

may drive differences in returns between dividend-paying and non-dividend-paying stocks.

16
 Systematic risk seems less likely to explain the patterns in returns within companies. By

comparing the same set of companies over time, any risk loadings that are constant over time

will tend to cancel out. For risk to explain the ‘within companies’ returns, the systematic risk of

the stock must be higher in months of expected dividend payments. Savor and Wilson (2011)

argue that earnings announcements can cause a firm to be more exposed to macroeconomic risks,

resulting in higher returns. For the rest of the month outside the announcement, it is less clear

why the firm should have a different exposure to risk. The most plausible change in exposure

would be for liquidity, which we examine below (and which loads in the wrong direction to

explain the effect).

Table III examines the returns of predicted dividend-paying stocks relative to standard

factors – the market, size, book-to-market, momentum and liquidity. We form portfolios of

stocks based on predicted dividend payment, and regress them on returns of portfolios for excess

market returns, SMB, HML, UMD (all from Ken French’s website), and in some specifications

the Pastor and Stambaugh (2003) liquidity factor:

RPredDiv,t – Rf = α + βMkt-Rf*RMkt-Rf,t + βSMB*RSMB,t + βHML*RHML,t + βUMD*RUMD,t + ε t (1)

Table III Panel A shows the abnormal returns relative to a four factor model (α in the

above regression) for predicted dividend payers versus other stocks. In each case, the long

portfolio is the average return of all predicted dividend payers, equal-weighted or value-weighted

according to the specification. We consider several different short portfolios – all companies that

are not expected to pay a dividend this month, companies that paid a dividend in the past year

but are not expected to pay this month, and companies one month after they are expected to pay

a dividend. The first short portfolio corresponds to the ‘between companies’ question, while the

latter two are ‘within companies’ tests.

17
 Panel A shows that predicted dividend payers have significantly positive abnormal

returns. An equal-weighted portfolio of predicted dividend-payers has abnormal returns of 41

basis points per month (with a t-statistic of 8.68), while a value-weighted portfolio of predicted

dividend-payers has abnormal returns of 23 basis points per month (with a t-statistic of 6.82).

Predicted dividend payers also have high returns relative to the comparison portfolios. A

portfolio that is long predicted dividend payers and short all other companies (‘between

companies’) earns abnormal returns of 53 basis points per month on an equal-weighted basis (t-

statistic of 12.43) and 31 basis points on a value-weighted basis (t-statistic of 6.64). The portfolio

of all companies other than predicted dividend payers has significantly negative returns: -12

basis points for equal weighted portfolios (t-statistic of -3.37) and -8 basis points for value-

weighted portfolios (t-statistic of -4.41).

Perhaps more importantly, predicted dividend payers have abnormal returns relative to

past dividend payers in other months (‘within companies’). This can be seen in the portfolio that

is long predicted dividend payers and short all other companies with a dividend in the last 12

months. The ‘within companies’ difference portfolio earns abnormal returns of 37 basis points on

an equal-weighted basis (t-statistic of 15.48) and 28 basis points on a value-weighted basis (t-

statistic of 6.64). The effect is larger when shorting companies only in the month immediately

after a predicted dividend. In addition, the portfolio that is short companies one month after a

predicted dividend earns abnormal returns of -18 basis points per month when value-weighted (t-

statistic of -4.43), although the effect is smaller on an equal-weighted basis. This is consistent

with dividend-seeking investors creating selling pressure after the dividend has been paid.

Table III Panel B shows that the effects are similar under different models of expected

returns. For the ‘between companies’ difference portfolio, monthly abnormal returns are 51 basis

18
points under a CAPM, 52 basis points under the Fama and French (1993) 3 factor model, 53

basis points when the momentum factor is added and 51 basis points when the Pastor and

Stambaugh (2003) liquidity factor is added (all highly significant). The abnormal returns for the

‘within companies’ portfolio are similar for the CAPM, 3 factor and 4 factor models, and adding

the liquidity factor makes the effect larger, to 43 basis points per month.

Panel B also shows the loadings on excess market returns, SMB, HML, UMD and LIQ

(all taken from the 4 factor plus liquidity regression). The ‘within companies’ portfolio has

insignificant loadings on excess market returns, SMB, HML and UMD. This is consistent with

the earlier argument that this difference portfolio has little exposure to risk factors that are

constant over time because it operates within a set of companies. The only somewhat significant

loading is on the liquidity factor (-0.015, t-statistic of -2.19). However the loading on liquidity is

negative –companies have less liquidity risk in months of predicted dividend payment, not more.

This explains why the alpha gets larger when adding liquidity to the four factor model.

Overall, Table III provides strong evidence of abnormal returns for predicted dividend

payers. These returns are not driven by standard factors, and are unlikely to be driven by other

factor loadings that remain constant through time. To demonstrate the relative size of the

anomaly, Fig. 1 plots the cumulative value of the within-companies portfolio starting with an

initial investment of $1 on December 31, 1927. For comparison, the cumulative value the SMB

and HML portfolios are also shown. The final value in December 2011 is $35.11 for the dividend

month premium, versus $7.47 for SMB and $26.84 for HML. The dividend month premium is

also less volatile than either SMB or HML.

4.3 Daily returns within dividend months

19
 To examine the extent to which price pressure is contributing towards the dividend month

premium, we examine daily returns within dividend months. The hypothesis that returns are

driven by price pressure arising from an increase in the excess demand for stocks has the

following testable predictions:

1. If returns (announcement, interim, ex-day) are driven by price pressure, they should

lead to reversals after dividend payment.

2. If returns are driven by price pressure, then they should be greater in cases when

investor trades are likely to have a bigger price impact, such as when there is less

liquidity and when the demand for dividends is higher. Such cases should also

experience larger subsequent reversals.

In terms of alternative hypotheses, we consider the following:

3. If the effect is driven by investors being positively surprised by dividend news or

announcement risk, then returns should be concentrated around the announcement

(when the actual news is revealed, and investors are positively surprised).

4. If the effect is driven by the direct tax effects from dividend payment (as in Elton and

Gruber (1970), the effect should be concentrated on the ex-dividend day itself, when

the tax treatment changes.

5. If the effect is driven by Brennan (1970) model, higher dividend yields should be

associated with higher returns in all periods.

While our results do not rule out the existence of the alternative explanations above, we

are interested in examining the extent to which they explain the entirety of the returns available

in the dividend period. To evaluate this, we calculate the characteristic-adjusted returns for

dividend-paying companies in different periods around dividend payment. Similar to Daniel,

20
Grinblatt, Titman and Wermers (1997), we sort stocks into quintiles based on their market

capitalization, book value of equity divided by market value of equity (as in Fama and French

(1992)) and returns from t-20 days to t-250 days (thus computing a daily analog of months t-2 to

t-12), and match the stock to the portfolio with the same quintiles of each variable.

Characteristic-adjusted returns are then the returns of the stock minus the returns on the portfolio

matched on quintiles of size, book-to-market ratio and momentum. If returns are calculated using

daily calendar-time portfolios and abnormal returns using daily four-factor alphas, the results are very

similar.

Ex-dividend days are taken from the CRSP daily file, as are dividend declaration days. A

tradable strategy using the declaration date must use the predicted declaration days, since the

actual declaration day will not be known in advance. Predicted dividend days are taken to be 63

trading days after the last dividend declaration day. 6 We calculate returns for the actual

declaration day, the predicted declaration day, the interim period (one day after declaration until

one day before the ex-day), the ex-day, and the 40 days after the ex-day. For the daily returns, we

limit the sample to quarterly dividends.

We examine the patterns in daily returns in Table IV. Panel A presents the mean

characteristic-adjusted returns for each of the periods described above. The actual declaration

day has average adjusted returns of 11.6 basis points, the predicted declaration day has adjusted

returns of 3.1 basis points, the interim period has adjusted returns of 15.8 basis points, the ex-day

has adjusted returns of 26.2 basis points, and the 40 day period after the ex-day has adjusted

returns of -71.9 basis points (all highly statistically significant). Out of the total effect of 53.6

6
This is roughly the average number of trading days per year divided by 4. The results are very similar if dividends
are predicted based on 3 months from the average date of the last 4 dividends, or by adding in the average gap
between the last 4 dividends. More complicated rules based on day-of-the-week estimates, as in Kalay and
Loewenstein (1986) and Graham, Koski and Loewenstein (2006), will lead to greater accuracy.

21
basis points from announcement to ex-day, roughly 21% is due to the declaration day, roughly

31% is due to the interim period, and roughly 48% is due to the ex-day. For taxable investors, the

after-tax return on the ex-dividend day will be less, but tax-free investors such as charitable

institutions would be able to receive the full ex-dividend return. Rantapuska (2007) examines

individual trading behavior and finds that tax advantaged traders do in fact engage in overnight

trades to take advantage of ex-day effects, earning significant returns.

To illustrate the pattern in daily returns, Fig. 2 plots the daily characteristic-adjusted

returns around the ex-dividend date, from 30 days beforehand until 60 days afterwards. Returns

increase as the ex-day approaches, with the largest abnormal return on ex-dividend day, and

become negative in period between dividends, increasing again as the next dividend approaches.

Fig. 3 presents returns centered around the announcement date. The largest returns are on the

announcement day and the day afterwards, decreasing over time but still significantly positive

for the 10 subsequent trading days. Importantly, the returns after the announcement are not

driven by companies with an ex-day over the subsequent days, as we exclude ex-day

observations from the sample. The results in Fig. 3 contrast with Eades, Hess and Kim (1985),

who find abnormal returns only on the announcement day. We examine a much longer time

period than their study, which may account for the different results.

If the positive returns in dividend periods are driven by price pressure, we may expect

them to be associated with increases in trading volume. We examine the daily abnormal trading

volume around the ex-day and the announcement day, with abnormal volume computed as:

AbnormalVolumet = (Volumet – 250DayAvgVolumet)/ 250DayAvgVolumet

Where Volume is the daily trading volume (adjusted for stock splits, etc.) and

250DayAvgVolume is the average daily volume over the previous 250 trading days taken over

22
days when the share actually traded, provided there are at least 120 non-missing volume

observations). Abnormal volume is thus a time-series measure computed on a rolling basis,

comparing each day’s volume as a percentage change relative to the previous yearly average. We

plot the average level on each day, and compute the t-statistics for each mean (with red bars

indicating a t-statistic greater than 2).

Figures 4 and 5 present abnormal daily volume around the ex-day and announcement

day, respectively. The patterns in volume are similar to the patterns in returns in Figures 2 and 3.

Around the ex-day (Fig. 4), abnormal volume is significantly positive in the lead up to the ex-day

(peaking at almost 15% above average on the day before the ex-day), and significantly negative

afterwards. High volume periods are generally associated with high return periods, and vice

versa for negative returns after the ex-day. The only exception to this pattern is the ex-day itself,

which has very high returns in Fig. 2, but does not have significant abnormal volume. Around

the announcement day (Fig. 5), abnormal volume is significantly negative before the

announcement, and significantly positive on the announcement day and the 8 days afterwards.

The largest abnormal volume is actually the day after the announcement (at around 15% higher

than average). The strong relation between returns and volume is consistent with price impact

from investor trades. This result complements the findings in Michaely and Vila (1996) that

volume increases in the period around ex-day.

We next investigate how the dividend month returns are related to liquidity, in Table IV

Panel B. Karpoff and Walkling (1988) and Karpoff and Walkling (1990) find that ex-day returns

are related to the level of spreads and transaction costs. We extend this to examine how liquidity

and price impact affect returns during the rest of the dividend cycle, using two measures of

liquidity. First, we examine the measure of illiquidity used in Amihud (2002), defined as Illiqi,t =

23
 | |
∑ , where VOLD is the dollar volume that day, and D is the number of days when

the stock traded (over the past 250 days). The measure is multiplied by 1000, and winsorized at

the 1% level. For each return period (announcement, interim, etc.), the measure is taken from 5

days before the announcement to 255 days before the announcement, provided there are at least

120 days with some trades. The Amihud measure captures how large a price movement is

associated with each dollar traded, with large numbers indicating less liquidity.

Second, we consider the length of the interim period between the declaration and the ex-

dividend day. Because liquidity has a time dimension, when traders need to execute their orders

over a shorter period they are likely to have more price impact. In all cases, we predict that less

liquid companies will exhibit greater price pressure before the dividend payment, and greater

reversals afterwards. All standard errors are clustered by firm and by day.

The regression equation is (for example):

Rperiod,i,t - RBenchmark,t = α + β*Amihudi,t, + εit,

where period is the announcement day, the interim period, the ex-day, or the 40 days afterwards,

and Benchmark is the average returns over the same period for the portfolio of firms in the same

quintiles of size, book-to-market ratio and momentum. In other regressions, the Amihud liquidity

measure is replaced with the number of days in the interim period.

The results indicate that lower levels of liquidity are associated with higher interim and

ex-day returns, and larger reversals. When examining the effect of the length of the interim

period, for interim returns the coefficient is -0.123, for ex-date returns the coefficient is -0.022,

and for the 40 day post-period the coefficient is 0.128 (all significant at a 1% level). A one

standard deviation increase in the length of the interim period is 13.9 days (which gives 1.39, as

24
the variable is divided by 10), corresponding to interim returns being lower by 17.1 basis points,

ex-day returns being lower by 3.0 basis points, the post period returns being higher (i.e. less

negative) by 17.8 basis points.

Under the Amihud (2002) illiquidity measure, less liquid securities also exhibit larger

interim and ex-day returns, and greater reversals. The coefficient on interim returns is 26.51, the

coefficient for the ex-day is 18.19, and the coefficient for the forty days after the ex-day is

-72.92, all significant at a 1% level. The standard deviation of the Amihud measure is 0.00307,

meaning that a one standard deviation increase in illiquidity is associated with higher interim

returns by 8.1 basis points, higher ex-day returns by 5.6 basis points, and lower (i.e. more

negative) returns in the subsequent forty days by 22.4 basis points. Overall, Table IV indicates

that dividend month returns are related to liquidity, consistent with their being associated with

price pressure. Liquidity affects both the size of the initial price increase, and the size of the

subsequent reversal.

4.4 Dividend month returns and proxies for the demand for dividends

Next, in Table V we examine how the returns in each period may be affected by shifts in

the demand for dividends. We seek to test whether the stock price changes are due to investor

demand for the dividends themselves, either due to tax or behavioral reasons, being translated

into increases in excess demand for dividend-paying stocks around the period of payment (as

discussed in section 2.2). Because we cannot observe the demand for dividends directly, we

examine whether stock price changes around dividend periods are different in cases when we

would expect investor demand for dividends to be larger.

We consider two variables that may be associated with higher demand for dividends. The

first is the dividend yield. We measure this as the average dividend payment from the previous

25
12 months (in months that included a dividend), divided by the share price from the previous

month. If investors desire dividends, either due to catering, or due to tax-arbitrage trades, they

will likely have a larger desire for companies that pay larger dividends. This presents a test of the

Brennan (1970) model as well – under this model, dividend yield should be associated with

higher returns in all periods, whereas under price pressure it should lead to higher price increases

up to the ex-day, and higher reversals afterwards.

The second proxy for dividend demand is economic uncertainty. Under a catering model,

if dividend demand is driven by psychological reasons (as Baker and Wurgler (2004) suggest), it

may be due to a desire for the safe and secure payouts that dividends represent. Dividends tend to

be less volatile than prices (Shiller, 1981). If investors view dividends and capital gains in

separate mental accounts [such as described in Thaler (1980)] they may perceive dividends to

guarantee a certain level of returns in the future. Investors may fail to appreciate the Miller and

Modigliani (1961) argument that dividends will be offset by equivalent price decreases in the

absence of taxes and frictions. This may cause them to view dividends as being a guaranteed

source of returns, while viewing unrealized capital gains as risky.

These possibilities suggest that the demand for dividends will be higher during periods of

aggregate economic uncertainty. In such times, risk aversion is higher and the availability of

alternative safe assets is reduced, making dividends especially attractive. Economic uncertainty

may also affect the returns in dividend periods if it is associated with changes in the level of

aggregate liquidity. In such cases, a reduction in trading or an increase in the price of liquidity

may cause tax-motivated traders to have a larger price impact, as there are fewer offsetting trades

from liquidity providers.

26
 As noted before, an increase in demand for dividends can lead to an increase in excess

demand for dividend-paying assets before the ex-day, even if the same individual investors are

not actively trading in and out of the asset over short time horizons. Investors may simply shift

the timing of trades they were already planning to make to receive the dividend. Another

possibility is that even if individual investors are not implementing dividend capture strategies

themselves, mutual funds may be doing so on their behalf to satisfy investor demand for assets

with higher dividend yields. Harris, Hartzmark and Solomon (2012) provide evidence consistent

with this possibility, as some funds (particularly those with high dividend yields) consistently

pay more dividends than what their quarterly holdings imply they should be earning, suggesting

that additional dividend capture strategies are occurring.

We examine the effect of economic uncertainty using two measures. First, whether the

economy is in recession, taken from the National Bureau of Economic Research definitions, and

second, the VIX index, which measures the market volatility for the next month implied by S&P

500 Index options. Out of the two measures, VIX is perhaps more likely to be associated with

liquidity changes, as it responds more directly to the levels of trade and market movements. To

the extent that the recession indicator is a slower-moving variable, it would only be associated

with lower frequency shifts in liquidity.

We consider these questions in Table V. The methodology is similar to Table IV –

characteristic adjusted returns from the declaration, interim, ex-day, and post-period are

regressed on the dividend yield, on a dummy for recessions and on the VIX index. The results

indicate that higher dividend yields are associated with higher interim and ex-date returns, but

lower post-period returns (i.e. larger reversals). The coefficient on interim is 0.404, the

coefficient on ex-day is 0.070, and the coefficient on 40 day post period is -0.562 (all significant

27
at a 1% level when clustered by firm and day). A one standard deviation increase in dividend

yield is 0.58%, corresponding to an additional 23.5 basis points during the interim period, an

additional 4.1 basis points on the ex-day, and lower returns by 32.6 basis points in the post-

period.

The association between high dividend yields and lower returns in the post period is

difficult to reconcile with Brennan (1970), which predicts high returns from high dividend yields

in each period. The negative post-period returns tend to offset the higher interim and ex-day

returns, consistent with Kalay and Michaely (2000) who find no relation between dividend yield

and returns when measured over quarterly or longer horizons, and thus argue that the effects of

dividend yield tend to operate in the time series. To this extent, our findings that the dividend

month premium is a within-firm time-series effect is consistent with their results.

For recessions, we also find that interim and ex-day returns are higher, but post-period

returns are lower (i.e. reversals are larger). Interim returns are larger by 9.6 basis points during

recessions (significant at a 5% level), ex-day returns are higher by 8.1 basis points (significant at

a 1% level), and post period returns are lower by 28.2 basis points (significant at a 1% level).

This pattern is also repeated for the VIX index, whereby higher implied market volatility predicts

higher interim and ex-day returns, but lower (more negative) post-period returns. A one standard

deviation increase in VIX (0.794) increases interim returns by 18.1 basis points, increases ex-day

returns by 3.5 basis points, and decreases post-period returns by 29.4 basis points. None of

dividend yields, recessions or VIX has any significant effect on announcement day returns.

Overall, these results give support to the explanation of price pressure. The large effects

during the interim period occur when there is no news about the dividend, and when holding the

share does not subject the investor to additional tax consequences, as the dividend is not received

28
unless the stock is held until the ex-dividend day. In addition, the returns in the period after the

dividend are negative, consistent with the temporary price pressure being reversed. The fact that

both interim returns and subsequent returns are related to measures of liquidity and proxies for

the level of demand for dividends supports the view that both effects share the same underlying

cause of price pressure.

Table IV and V also suggest that Savor and Wilson (2011) announcement risk

explanation does not drive the results. Roughly 80% of the returns occur after the announcement,

when there is little rationale for risk exposure. Moreover, to the extent that dividend-month

returns are related to macroeconomic risk (as measured by recessions and VIX), the relation

holds for interim, ex-day and post-period returns, but not for the declaration day.

5. Alternative explanations

5.1 Potential alternative explanations

There are a number of other potential explanations of high returns during dividend

months. One possibility is other events that coincide with dividend months. If dividend-paying

months coincide with earnings announcement months, the dividend month premium could be

picking up the earnings announcement premium (Beaver , 1968; Frazzini and Lamont, 2006).

Another potential explanation lies in the seasonality in returns identified in Heston and Sadka

(2008), where returns in 12 months increments (12 months ago, 24 months ago etc.) predict

current month returns. The dividend month effect may be driven by news contained in the

dividend announcements. It may be driven by calendar-month effects such as being concentrated

in January, as Keim (1983) noted for the small firm effect . We investigate all of these

possibilities in the following sections.

29
5.2 Returns sorted by dividend frequency

Since most dividends in the sample are quarterly, the dividend month returns may be

driven by some other event with similar quarterly timing to dividends. To test this, we examine

dividends of different frequencies. If the effects are driven by dividends, then companies that pay

dividends on a semi-annual basis should show abnormal returns for dividends 6 months ago and

12 months ago, but not for 3 or 9 months ago. Similarly, annual dividend payers should only

show abnormal returns for dividend payments 12 months ago, but not 3, 6 or 9 months ago. We

test these predictions in Table VI, which shows the intercepts from a four-factor regression

according to the time since payment (1 to 12 months ago) and dividend frequency (all dividends,

quarterly, semi-annual, annual, monthly, and unknown).

Table VI shows that the patterns in abnormal returns match the frequency of the

dividends, providing support for the proposition that the abnormal returns are a property of

dividend-paying months specifically, rather than some other quarterly event. Companies with

quarterly dividends have abnormal returns 3, 6, 9 and 12 months after dividend payments

(between 48 and 64 basis points per month and highly significant). Companies with semi-annual

dividends have abnormal returns 6 months after dividend payment (115 basis points, t-statistic of

5.70) and 12 months after payment (84 basis points, t-statistic of 4.25), but not for dividends paid

3 months ago or 9 months ago. For annual dividends, the results are somewhat weaker – payment

12 months ago generates abnormal returns of 57 basis points, although the t-statistic is only 1.75,

but there are no abnormal returns for 3, 6 or 9 months ago. These weak results may be partly due

to the small number of annual dividend observations (only 0.48% of dividend months are annual,

and each annual-dividend firm is in the long portfolio only one month per year). In addition,

annual dividends are less predictable than other types of dividends – a firm that paid a quarterly

30
dividend 3, 6, 9 or 12 months ago has an 87.6% chance of paying a dividend in the current

month, while a firm that paid an annual dividend 12 months ago has only a 61.5% chance of

paying a dividend in the current month.

5.3 Earnings months, seasonality

If dividend-paying months coincide with earnings announcement months, then the

dividend-month effect may be merely proxying for months with earnings announcements. In

such a case, the dividend month premium ought to disappear once we control for whether the

month had an earnings announcement or not. To investigate this, we split the dividend month

sample into those months with an earnings announcement and those without, and compare the

within-companies portfolio for each category.

Another possibility is that the dividend month premium is measuring the effects of

seasonality, as in Heston and Sadka (2008). This result finds that monthly returns at 12 month

intervals tend to predict returns in the current month. They form their portfolios based on the

average returns of the stock from 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months ago. To test whether this effect is

driving our results, we form a two-way sort, based on predicted dividend payment, and also on

whether companies are above or below the median of the Heston and Sadka (2008) variable. We

then regress these returns on the excess market return, SMB, HML and UMD portfolios.

We test these predictions in Table VII, and find that neither earnings months nor

seasonality explain the dividend month announcement premium. For earnings, the within-

companies dividend month premium is 30.9 basis points in months with earnings

announcements, versus 45.0 basis points per month for non-earnings months, with the double

difference portfolio having negative returns that are somewhat significant (-14.1 basis points,

t-statistic of -2.06). While we do not have a clear explanation for why the dividend premium

31
should be higher in non-earnings months, this result does clearly indicate that the dividend

month effect is not limited to earnings months alone, as under an earnings announcement effect.

For the Heston and Sadka (2008) double sort, the dividend month premium is 7.4 basis points

higher in the high Heston and Sadka (2008) firms, but the difference is not significant. The

dividend month premium is positive and significant in all specifications – earnings and non-

earnings months, high and low seasonality.

5.4 Dividend news

Another possibility is that the dividend month premium is masking an effect related to

news about the dividends. A number of papers have examined whether news in dividends, such

as increases, decreases, omissions and initiations, is able to predict future returns and earnings.7

We examine below whether the results differ in months following past dividend increases,

decreases, omissions, and constant dividends. To keep the timing of changes consistent, we

restrict the study to quarterly dividends, and examine cases when a given month is predicted to

have a dividend and there was also a dividend increase (or decrease or omission, respectively) in

the previous 12 months. Companies with a constant dividend are companies without any

increase, decrease or omission in dividends in the previous 12 months. We then compare these

portfolios to the returns of companies with past dividend increases (decreases, omissions,

constant dividends) that are not predicted to pay a dividend this month. As before, we regress

these returns on Mkt-Rf, SMB, HML and UMD portfolios.

Table VIII presents these results. The dividend month premium is positive and significant

for all categories of past dividend changes when dividends were actually paid: increases,

7
For the effects of dividend news on earnings, see Fama and French (1998), Fama and French (2000), Liu, Szewcyk
and Zantout (2008), Fuller and Goldstein (2011). For the effect on future earnings, see Bernartzi, Michaely and
Thaler (1997), DeAngelo, DeAngelo and Skinner (1996), Nissim and Ziv (2001), and Grullon, Michaely, Benartzi
and Thaler (2005).

32
decreases and constant dividends. The monthly abnormal returns for the within-companies

portfolio are 44.7 basis points for dividend increases, 39.7 basis points for constant dividends,

and 72.9 basis points for dividend decreases. This indicates that the effect is not simply a proxy

for the sign of dividend news. By contrast, there is no dividend premium when the company

omitted dividend payment. This is important, as it suggests that the abnormal returns are coming

from the dividend payments themselves, and when dividends disappear, so does the anomaly.

Another way to examine whether the main results are proxying for dividend news is to

examine how persistent the effects are over time. The more stale the dividend information is, the

less likely that it still contains value-relevant news about the dividends. To examine this

question, we use earlier time periods to predict current dividend payments. We use the definition

of ‘predicted dividend in lag year’ and ‘other companies with dividend in lag year’ (similar to the

within companies definition) and lag these values by 12, 24, 36 months etc. For instance, a lag of

60 means that a company has a predicted dividend if it paid a dividend 63, 66, 69 or 72 months

ago, while ” other companies with dividend in lag year” paid a dividend 61, 62, 64, 65, 67, 68,

70 or 71 months ago. To make sure that the survivorship bias is the same between the long and

short portfolios, we restrict the sample to include only firms with data from lag month+12. We

examine the returns to the long/short portfolios regressed on a four-factor model as before.

Table IX presents these results. Abnormal returns are present using up to 20 year old

dividend data for equal-weighted portfolios (10.4 basis points per month, with a t-statistic of

3.35), and up to 16 year old data for the value-weighted portfolio The returns gradually become

smaller in both magnitude and significance, as some past dividend payers stop paying dividends

and other past non-payers initiate payments. Fig. 6 shows the abnormal returns to portfolios

formed on a simpler definition of paying any dividend at each monthly horizon. In these figures,

33
portfolios are formed that are long if a company paid a dividend X months ago and short if the

company did not. The figures plot the four-factor intercepts for equal-weighted portfolios in

Panel A and value-weighted portfolios in Panel B. The results are difficult to reconcile with the

effect being driven by dividend news, unless the news has persistent effects at a 20 year horizon.

5.5 Calendar and seasonal effects, sub-periods

Finally, we examine whether the returns are concentrated in certain months of the year

such as January, hold only in particular sub-periods, or have been eliminated in recent years. We

investigate these possibilities in Table X. Panel A presents the standard ‘within companies’

results using only returns from each calendar month of the year. The results show that the returns

are not concentrated in any particular month of the year, and the abnormal returns are significant

at a 5% level in 10 out of the 12 calendar months and significant at a 10% level in all months.

Panel B examines the returns to the ‘within companies’ strategy during four sub-periods: 1926-

1945, 1946-1965, 1966-1985 and 1986-2011. The equal-weighted portfolio had economically

and statistically significant four-factor alphas in all four sub-periods, ranging from 79 basis

points per month during 1926-1945 to 21 basis points per month during 1946-1965.

6. Conclusion

In this paper, we document a robust price pattern – companies have predictably higher

returns in months when they are expected to pay a dividend. Simple difference portfolios

produce abnormal returns of 37 to 53 basis points per month relative to a four-factor model, with

some specifications producing abnormal returns as high as 115 basis points per month. We

argue that the effect is consistent with price pressure from dividend-seeking investors in the lead-

up to the ex-day. Consistent with this explanation, there are substantial returns in the interim

34
period between announcement and ex-day (around 31% of the total returns of the dividend

period), and significant reversals in the 40 days after the ex-dividend day.

We argue that a price pressure from dividend-seeking investors is consistent with models

of dividend clienteles (such as tax-related trading) and dividend catering. But our results pose a

puzzle – why do dividend-seeking investors, regardless of underlying motivation, not purchase

the stock slightly earlier, securing both the dividend and the abnormal returns? Given that the

median duration between the dividend announcement and the ex-day is only ten days, and those

days contain substantial abnormal returns, it is not clear why investors who planned on buying

before the ex-day do not buy the share a few days earlier. This question is challenging, both from

the perspective of investor rationality and models of dividend payment, and one for which we do

not have a clear answer.

Our results also have implications for corporate finance. Models such as Brennan (1970)

and Green and Hollifield (2003) argue that if the marginal investor pays personal taxes, and the

present value of the tax liability is incorporated in equity prices, then dividends will raise the

firm’s cost of capital. The conclusion from these models will be altered, however, if taxable

investors can costlessly avoid receiving the dividend by selling the share to tax-free investors

before the ex-day in exchange for full value. The evidence in this paper is consistent with the

existence of frictions in the trades occurring before the ex-day (which are required for investors

to transfer the taxable dividends). In other words, these trades do not appear to be costless, but

instead involve a leakage of value.

Stock returns during dividend months represent a substantial asset-pricing anomaly. The

dividend month premium is as large as the value premium, but with less volatility. It survives a

wide battery of control variables. It holds on both a value-weighted and equal-weighted basis. It

35
is driven mainly by the long side of the portfolio. It is highly persistent, and abnormal returns are

available sorting on 20 year old data. Because of its operation within a given set of companies, it

appears unlikely to be driven by risk. These facts do not seem to be broadly appreciated in the

literature that examines dividends and stock returns as a way of understanding why firms pay

dividends in the first place. Our results appear at odds with market efficiency, and suggest that

prices are not fully incorporating information about the predictable component of dividend

payments.

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39
 Table I - Summary Statistics
Panel A - Firms with a Dividend in the Past Year
N Mean Std. Dev. 25% Median 75%
Market Cap ($m) 1,359,690 1,739 10,457 33 121 564
Book-to-Market 950,171 0.8098 0.5561 0.4415 0.6862 1.0380
Turnover 1,262,032 0.5118 0.9443 0.1060 0.2443 0.5671
Bid-Ask Spread 563,930 0.0239 0.0381 0.0042 0.0134 0.0302
Dividend Yield 4,448 0.0150 0.0590 0.0036 0.0069 0.0143
Number of Firm Months 1,359,690
Number of Firms 8,894

Panel B - Firms with No Dividend in the Past Year

N Mean Std. Dev. 25% Median 75%
Market Cap ($m) 718,726 894 6,308 33 113 436
Book-to-Market 611,835 0.5959 0.9433 0.2471 0.4505 0.7714
Turnover 688,811 1.3737 2.0701 0.2887 0.7404 1.7160
Bid-Ask Spread 514,907 0.0250 0.0428 0.0027 0.0134 0.0324
Number of Firm Months 718,726
Number of Firms 13,578

Panel C - Distribution of Dividend Frequencies

Pct of Firm/Months with Pct of
Dividend in the Last Dividend
Dividend Frequency Year Observations
Any Frequency 65.42
Monthly 0.17 0.70
Quarterly 56.61 89.25
Semi-Annual 2.00 1.50
Annual 1.07 0.48
Unknown Frequency 7.46 8.09

This Table presents summary statistics for companies according to whether they paid a dividend in the past
12 months, using monthly data from January 1927 to December 2011. Panel A presents information for
companies that paid a cash dividend in the past 12 months, and Panel B presents information for companies
that did not pay a cash dividend in the past 12 months. Panel C presents examines the distribution of dividend
frequencies

40
 Table II - Returns and the Probability of Current
Dividend Payment, Sorted By Timing of Past
Dividends
Panel A - Raw Returns and Dividend Payments
Returns in Current Probability of Dividend
Month Given Dividend in Current Month Given
Payment N Months Dividend Payment N
Months Since Ago Months Ago
Dividend Mean Std. All Quarterly
Payment Return Deviation Dividends Dividends
1 1.06 9.72 0.009 0.001
2 1.18 9.81 0.060 0.053
3 1.41 9.61 0.853 0.879
4 1.03 9.73 0.062 0.054
5 1.20 9.84 0.066 0.057
6 1.43 9.65 0.853 0.862
7 1.04 9.75 0.067 0.058
8 1.18 9.87 0.064 0.056
9 1.40 9.64 0.835 0.855
10 1.03 9.78 0.065 0.057
11 1.17 9.87 0.050 0.040
12 1.43 9.65 0.881 0.879

This Table presents the monthly stock returns of companies according to the timing of the past dividend
payments, using monthly data from January 1927 to December 2011. Panel A examines the average returns
and probability of dividend payment in the current month based on payment of dividends in previous months.
In Panel A, averages are taken over all firm/month combinations. Months lagged indicates a company had a
dividend lagged the indicated number of months in the past. ‘All Dividends’ refers to all regular cash
dividends paid in US dollars (distributions with the first two digits of the CRSP DISTCD variable equal to 12
with the third digit less than 6). ‘Quarterly Dividends’ refers only to quarterly cash dividends. Panel B
presents the distribution of returns according to companies predicted to pay a dividend this month, companies
who paid a dividend in the past 12 months but are not predicted to pay in the current month, and companies
that didn’t pay a dividend in the past 12 months. In Panel B, returns are time-series averages for portfolios,
formed by aggregating companies into portfolios each month. Dividends are predicted in the current month if
a quarterly dividend was paid 3, 6, 9, or 12 months ago, if a semi-annual dividend was paid 6 or 12 months
ago, or if an annual dividend was paid 12 months ago. The Sharpe Ratio is equal to average returns minus the
risk free rate, divided by the standard deviation of returns. All columns listing percentiles are for monthly
returns.

41
 Panel B - Returns Based on Predicted Dividends
Mean Std. Sharpe
Return Deviation Ratio 1% 5% 25% Median 75% 95% 99%
[1] Predicted Dividend
Month 1.38 5.76 0.188 -15.99 -7.25 -1.29 1.67 4.29 8.86 15.78
[2] All Other Companies
with a Dividend in the Last
12 Months 1.02 5.75 0.125 -16.22 -8.07 -1.57 1.48 3.92 8.36 14.78
[3] All Other Companies
with NO Dividend in the
Last 12 Months 1.01 8.52 0.084 -22.87 -12.57 -3.37 1.39 5.41 13.15 20.75
Portfolio Long [1] and
Short [2] 0.36 0.71 0.098 -1.24 -0.75 -0.07 0.33 0.74 1.51 2.36
Portfolio Long [1] and
Short [3] 0.37 3.80 0.021 -10.52 -5.76 -1.42 0.38 2.28 6.17 9.45

42
 Table III - Abnormal Returns in Predicted Dividend Months
Panel A - Four Factor Alphas For Difference Portfolios Based on Predicted Dividends
Equal Weighted Value Weighted
Predicted Predicted Predicted Predicted Predicted Predicted
Long Dividend Dividend Dividend Dividend Dividend Dividend
All Other Past Dividend 1, All Other Past Dividend 1,
All Other Dividend 4, 7, or 10 All Other Dividend 4, 7, or 10
Short Companies payers Months Ago Companies payers Months Ago

Long 0.406 *** 0.406 *** 0.406 *** 0.234 *** 0.234 *** 0.234 ***
(8.68) (8.68) (8.68) (6.82) (6.82) (6.82)
Short -0.123 *** 0.038 -0.044 -0.079 *** -0.047 * -0.175 ***
(-3.37) (0.82) (-0.91) (-4.41) (-1.70) (-4.43)
Difference 0.528 *** 0.366 *** 0.448 *** 0.313 *** 0.280 *** 0.409 ***
(12.43) (15.48) (16.39) (6.64) (6.64) (8.09)

This table presents the results of Fama French 4 Factor regressions of US monthly stock returns based on predicted dividend payment. Portfolios of stock
returns are formed based predicted dividend payments, and these are regressed on excess market returns, SMB, HML, and UMD (available from Ken
French’s website), and in some cases the Pastor and Stambaugh (2003) liquidity factor. Both equal weighted and value weighted portfolios are formed.
To be included in the long portfolio a stock needs to have a predicted dividend. A predicted dividend month has a quarterly or unknown dividend 3, 6, 9
or 12 months ago, a semi-annual dividend 6 or 12 months ago, or an annual dividend 12 months ago. Stocks with monthly dividends in the previous 12
months are excluded from the analysis. For the short portfolios, "All Other Companies" contains all companies not included in the long portfolio, "All
Other Companies with a Dividend in the Last 12 Months" contains companies that are not in the long portfolio, but have paid at least one dividend in the
last 12 months, and "All other companies with a Dividend in Lag1, Lag 4, Lag7, and/or Lag10 Months" contains companies not in the long portfolio with
a dividend in at least one of the months occurring 1,4,7 or 10 months ago. Panel A presents only the intercepts from 4 factor regressions, for the various
long and short portfolios as labeled, with ‘Difference’ being a portfolio long in the predicted dividend portfolio and short the labeled ‘short’ portfolio.
Panel B presents the intercepts for regressions of excess portfolio returns on a CAPM model (excess market returns only), 3 factor regressions (excess
market returns, SMB, and HML), 4 factor regressions (excess market returns, SMB, HML and UMD) and 4 factor plus liquidity (excess market returns,
SMB, HML UMD and liquidity). To be included in these regressions a company needs a non-missing return from 12 months ago. Regressions are run on
monthly returns of NYSE, Amex and NASDAQ common shares, from January, 1927 to December 2011. A dividend is defined as the first two digits of
the CRSP DISTCD variable equal to 12 with the third digit less than 6. The top number is the coefficient, the lower number in parentheses is the t-
statistic, and *, ** and *** indicate statistical significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level respectively. 43
 Panel B - Factor Loadings from Fama French 4 Factor Difference Portfolios
Long Predicted Dividend, Short All Other Companies
CAPM 3-Factor 4-Factor 4-Factor +
Long Alpha Alpha Alpha Liq. Alpha MktRf SMB HML UMD Liquidity

Long 0.472 *** 0.361 *** 0.406 *** 0.404 *** 0.890 *** 0.417 *** 0.418 *** -0.051 *** -0.034 **
(7.74) (7.87) (8.68) (6.35) (61.92) (20.62) (19.03) (-3.59) (-1.99)
Short 0.000 -0.002 *** -0.001 *** -0.001 ** 0.970 *** 0.682 *** 0.167 *** -0.078 *** -0.014
(-0.53) (-4.47) (-3.37) (-2.57) (104.04) (51.89) (11.73) (-8.47) (-1.26)
Difference 0.507 *** 0.519 *** 0.528 *** 0.511 *** -0.081 *** -0.265 *** 0.251 *** 0.027 ** -0.020
(10.31) (12.57) (12.43) (10.36) (-7.27) (-16.90) (14.76) (2.48) (-1.52)

Long Predicted Dividend, Short All Other Companies With Dividend in the Last Year
CAPM 3-Factor 4-Factor 4-Factor +
Long Alpha Alpha Alpha Liq. Alpha MktRf SMB HML UMD Liquidity

Long 0.472 *** 0.361 *** 0.406 *** 0.404 *** 0.890 *** 0.417 *** 0.418 *** -0.051 *** -0.034 **
(7.74) (7.87) (8.68) (6.35) (61.92) (20.62) (19.03) (-3.59) (-1.99)
Short 0.113 * 0.009 0.038 -0.024 0.892 *** 0.412 *** 0.420 *** -0.053 *** -0.019
(1.90) (0.21) (0.82) (-0.38) (63.50) (20.82) (19.57) (-3.83) (-1.16)
Difference 0.355 *** 0.349 *** 0.366 *** 0.428 *** -0.002 0.005 -0.002 0.002 -0.015 **
(15.39) (15.10) (15.48) (17.03) (-0.42) (0.68) (-0.26) (0.40) (-2.19)

44
 Table IV - Daily Abnormal Returns Around Dividend Months
Panel A - Average Characteristic-Adjusted Returns
Predicted
Declaration Declaration Interim Declaraction 40 Days
Day Day Period Ex-Day to Ex-Day After Ex-Day
0.116 *** 0.031 *** 0.166 *** 0.262 *** 0.536 *** -0.719 ***
(24.25) (7.14) (12.91) (63.40) (38.09) (-32.65)

Panel B - Liquidity and Daily Characteristic-Adjusted Returns

Length of Interim Period
Declaration Interim Declaraction 40 Days
Day Period Ex-Day to Ex-Day After Ex-Day
Constant 0.107 *** 0.339 *** 0.292 *** 0.728 *** -0.897 ***
(13.07) (14.74) (32.08) (28.68) (-21.05)
Days in Interim 0.01 -0.12 *** -0.02 *** -0.14 *** 0.13 ***
Period (/10) (1.49) (-6.34) (-5.07) (-6.96) (6.22)
R2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
N 283,166 282,795 284,406 284,406 284,414
Amihud Illiquidity
Declaration Interim Declaraction 40 Days
Day Period Ex-Day to Ex-Day After Ex-Day
Constant 0.107 *** 0.185 *** 0.188 *** 0.473 *** -0.577 ***
(17.51) (7.06) (26.13) (16.15) (-9.56)
Amihud Illiquidity 2.07 26.51 *** 18.19 *** 44.06 *** -72.92 ***
Measure (0.45) (3.47) (4.23) (3.76) (-3.61)
R2 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000
N 245,553 245,425 246,648 246,648 246,603
This table examines daily characteristic-adjusted returns in periods around dividend months. Each adjusted return takes
the company’s stock return and subtracts off the returns of a portfolio matched on quintiles of market capitalization,
book-to-market ratio and momentum. A predicted declaration date is 63 trading days after the previous declaration
date. Panel A presents the average returns in each period: the declaration day, the interim period (1 day after
declaration to 1 day before the ex-day, inclusive), the ex-dividend day, and the 40 days after the ex-dividend day).
Panel B takes the same set of returns, regresses them on two measures of liquidity: the number of days in the interim
| |
period (divided by 10), and the liquidity measure used in Amihud (2002) : ∑ , where VOLD is the dollar
volume that day, and D is the number of days that the stock traded (over the past 250 days) Regressions are run on
daily returns of NYSE, Amex and NASDAQ common shares, from January 1927 to December 2011. The top number
is the coefficient, the lower number in parentheses is the t-statistic, and *, ** and *** indicate statistical significance at
the 10%, 5% and 1% level respectively.

45
 Table V - Daily Abnormal Returns, Economic Uncertainty and
Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield
Declaration Interim Declaraction 40 Days
Day Period Ex-Day to Ex-Day After Ex-Day
Constant 0.001 *** -0.002 *** 0.002 *** 0.005 *** -0.002 **
(10.89) (-4.71) (15.95) (10.03) (-2.49)
Dividend Yield 0.000 0.404 *** 0.070 *** 0.033 -0.562 ***
(0.03) (10.67) (4.28) (0.76) (-5.91)
R2 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001
N 280,825 280,055 282,352 282,352 282,282
Recessions
Declaration Interim Declaraction 40 Days
Day Period Ex-Day to Ex-Day After Ex-Day
Constant 0.118 *** 0.150 *** 0.249 *** 0.511 *** -0.673 ***
(21.75) (8.87) (37.82) (27.09) (-21.07)
Recessions -0.013 0.096 ** 0.081 *** 0.151 *** -0.282 ***
(-0.80) (2.08) (5.51) (2.99) (-3.09)
R2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
N 283,166 282,795 284,406 284,406 284,414
VIX
Declaration Interim Declaraction 40 Days
Day Period Ex-Day to Ex-Day After Ex-Day
Constant 0.069 *** -0.372 *** 0.146 *** -0.153 * -0.048
(2.65) (-4.72) (5.26) (-1.79) (-0.39)
VIX(/10) 0.012 0.228 *** 0.044 *** 0.274 *** -0.371 ***
(0.93) (5.60) (3.11) (6.27) (-5.84)
R2 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.001
N 136,045 136,003 136,647 136,647 136,632
This table examines daily characteristic-adjusted returns in periods around dividend payment. Each adjusted return
takes the company’s stock return and subtracts off the returns of a portfolio matched on quintiles of market
capitalization, book-to-market ratio and momentum. Regressions are run separately for the declaration day, the interim
period (1 day after declaration to 1 day before the ex-day, inclusive), the ex-dividend day, and the 40 days after the ex-
dividend day). The independent variable is either the dividend yield (the average from the previous 12 months of
dividends payment in months that included a dividend, divided by the share price from the previous month), a dummy
variable that equals one if the economy was in recession at that point, or the VIX index measure of market volatility.
Regressions are run on daily returns of NYSE, Amex and NASDAQ common shares, from January 1927 to December
2011. The top number is the coefficient, the lower number in parentheses is the t-statistic, and *, ** and *** indicate
statistical significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level respectively.
46
 Table VI - Abnormal Returns by Dividend Frequency
Dividend N
Months Ago All Quarterly Semi-Annual Annual Monthly Unknown
1 -0.055 -0.062 0.118 -0.120 0.225 0.098
(-1.23) (-1.11) (0.60) (-0.40) (1.30) (0.60)
2 0.203 *** 0.186 *** 0.213 0.414 0.204 0.314 **
(4.71) (3.73) (1.09) (1.23) (1.10) (2.03)
3 0.548 *** 0.636 *** 0.028 0.380 0.200 0.363 **
(12.88) (11.32) (0.15) (1.21) (1.11) (2.56)
4 -0.070 * -0.103 ** -0.342 * -0.243 0.207 -0.003
(-1.66) (-2.03) (-1.71) (-0.76) (1.18) (-0.01)
5 0.151 *** 0.128 *** 0.664 *** -0.345 0.137 0.029
(3.59) (2.69) (3.81) (-1.01) (0.76) (0.18)
6 0.563 *** 0.539 *** 1.146 *** 0.144 0.329 * 0.791 ***
(13.98) (11.65) (5.70) (0.49) (1.82) (4.24)
7 -0.094 ** -0.116 ** 0.231 -0.323 0.212 0.050
(-2.26) (-2.43) (1.07) (-1.09) (1.17) (0.30)
8 0.101 ** 0.073 0.261 -0.712 ** 0.318 * 0.503 ***
(2.47) (1.60) (1.37) (-2.23) (1.69) (3.10)
9 0.498 *** 0.505 *** -0.102 0.427 0.382 ** 0.238
(12.68) (10.93) (-0.52) (1.31) (2.03) (1.34)
10 -0.112 *** -0.159 *** 0.372 * 0.701 ** 0.212 -0.064
(-2.75) (-3.26) (1.72) (2.23) (1.15) (-0.37)
11 0.126 *** 0.110 ** 0.272 0.241 0.232 0.158
(3.11) (2.48) (1.45) (0.70) (1.25) (0.86)
12 0.494 *** 0.484 *** 0.837 *** 0.567 * 0.450 ** 0.568 ***
(12.10) (10.21) (4.25) (1.75) (2.35) (3.47)
This table presents the results of Fama French 4 Factor regressions of US monthly stock returns based on the timing
of past dividend payments of different frequencies. ‘Dividend N Months Ago’ means that the portfolio of returns is
formed based on companies who paid a dividend of the given type N months earlier. Dividend types are from CRSP
classifications of the dividend as quarterly, semi-annual, annual, monthly, or unknown, with ‘All’ including all
these categories. Each combination of dividend type and time since the dividend is the output of a separate
regression of portfolio returns on a Fama French 4 Factor Model (excess market returns, SMB,HML and UMD
portfolios). The dependent variable is the returns of an equal weighted portfolio that is long all companies who paid
a dividend of the given type in the given earlier period, and short all companies who did not pay any dividend in
that month. Regressions are run on monthly returns of NYSE, Amex and NASDAQ common shares, from January
1927 to December 2011. The top number is the coefficient, the lower number in parentheses is the t-statistic, and *,
** and *** indicate statistical significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level respectively.

47
 Table VII - Double-Sorted Portfolios on Predicted
Dividends, Earnings Months and Seasonality
Other Past
Predicted Dividend
Dividend Payers Difference
Earnings Month 0.647 *** 0.338 *** 0.309 ***
(7.35) (4.17) (5.07)
Non-Earnings Month 0.325 *** -0.125 * 0.450 ***
(4.74) (-1.84) (14.62)
Difference 0.322 *** 0.463 *** -0.141 **
(4.40) (6.90) (-2.06)

Above Median Heston-Sadka 0.581 *** 0.275 *** 0.312 ***

(2008) Seasonality (10.84) (5.33) (10.09)
Below Median Heston-Sadka 0.143 *** -0.091 * 0.238 ***
(2008) Seasonality (2.70) (-1.77) (6.28)
Difference 0.438 *** 0.365 *** 0.074
(9.06) (7.73) (1.59)

This table presents the results of Fama French 4 Factor regressions of US monthly stock returns double sorted on
predicted dividend payment and other company characteristics. All portfolios are equal-weighted, and monthly stock
returns are regressed on monthly excess market returns, SMB, HML and UMD, with the intercept from these
regressions being shown. Rows and columns other than ‘Difference’ show the intercept from four factor regressions that
are long in the portfolio indicated in the row or heading. ‘Difference’ gives the intercept from a four factor regression
that is long the portfolio in the top row (or left column) and short the portfolio in the bottom row (or right column).
‘Predicted Dividends’ is a portfolio of stocks that paid a quarterly or unknown dividend 3, 6, 9 or 12 months ago, a
semi-annual dividend 6 or 12 months ago, or an annual dividend 12 months ago. Stocks with monthly dividends in the
previous 12 months are excluded from the analysis. For the short portfolios, "Other Past Dividend Payers" contains all
companies that paid a dividend in the past 12 months but are not expected to pay a dividend this month under the above
definition. Earnings months indicate a month that a company reported earnings. The Heston and Sadka (2008)
Seasonality variable is taken as the average return for the stock from 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months ago. Each month
stocks are sorted according to whether they are above or below the median value for this variable in that month, and
split into two portfolios accordingly. Regressions are run on monthly returns of NYSE, Amex and NASDAQ common
shares, from January 1927 to December 2011. The top number is the coefficient, the lower number in parentheses is the
t-statistic, and *, ** and *** indicate statistical significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level respectively.

48
 Table VIII - Dividend News and Abnormal Returns in
Predicted Dividend Months
Predicted Predicted Predicted Predicted
Dividend, Dividend, Dividend, Dividend,
Long Dividend Constant Dividend Dividend
Increase in Dividend in Decrease in Missed in Last
Last year
All Other Last year
All Other Last year
All Other year
Companies Companies Companies All Other
with with with Companies
Short Dividend Constant Dividend with Missed
Increase in Dividend in Decrease in Dividend in
Last Year Last Year Last Year Last Year

Long 0.860 *** 0.485 *** 0.407 *** -0.785 ***

(7.98) (9.10) (2.70) (-3.49)
Short 0.429 *** 0.066 -0.403 *** -0.669 ***
(4.99) (1.25) (-3.30) (-3.96)
Difference 0.447 *** 0.397 *** 0.729 *** -0.008
(4.16) (12.47) (4.19) (-0.03)

This table presents the results of Fama French 4 Factor regressions of US monthly stock returns double sorted on
predicted dividend payment and recent dividend news. All portfolios are equal-weighted, and monthly stock returns
are regressed on monthly excess market returns, SMB, HML and UMD, with the intercept from these regressions
being shown. All long portfolios are companies with a predicted dividend in the current month, meaning that the
stocks paid a quarterly or unknown dividend 3, 6, 9 or 12 months ago, a semi-annual dividend 6 or 12 months ago, or
an annual dividend 12 months ago. In addition, the stocks must also have experienced a dividend increase (column
1), constant dividends (column 2), a dividend decrease (column 3) or dividend omission (column 4) accordingly
some time during the past 12 months. The short portfolio is all stocks who had the same dividend news in the past
year (increase, constant, decrease or omission) but are not predicted to pay a dividend in the current month.
‘Difference’ is the difference portfolio of long minus short. Regressions are run on monthly returns of NYSE, Amex
and NASDAQ common shares, from January 1927 to December 2011. The top number is the coefficient, the lower
number in parentheses is the t-statistic, and *, ** and *** indicate statistical significance at the 10%, 5% and 1%
level respectively.

49
 Table IX - Long Term Persistance of Dividend Month Premium
Predicted Predicted Predicted Predicted
Dividend in Dividend in Dividend in Dividend in
Long Lag Year Lag Year Long Lag Year Lag Year
Other Other Other Other
Companies Companies Companies Companies
with Dividend with Dividend with Dividend with Dividend
Short in Lag Year in Lag Year Short in Lag Year in Lag Year
Years Years
Lagged Equal Weight Value Weight Lagged Equal Weight Value Weight
1 0.329 *** 0.245 *** 11 0.126 *** 0.125 ***
(13.82) (5.76) (4.93) (2.82)
2 0.281 *** 0.258 *** 12 0.143 *** 0.106 **
(10.73) (5.96) (5.78) (2.34)
3 0.280 *** 0.287 *** 13 0.096 *** 0.100 **
(11.20) (6.59) (3.72) (2.12)
4 0.258 *** 0.258 *** 14 0.134 *** 0.120 **
(10.71) (5.80) (5.08) (2.57)
5 0.210 *** 0.232 *** 15 0.125 *** 0.098 **
(8.65) (5.36) (4.54) (2.02)
6 0.180 *** 0.216 *** 16 0.111 *** 0.105 **
(7.46) (5.15) (4.09) (2.14)
7 0.190 *** 0.229 *** 17 0.112 *** 0.037
(7.97) (5.20) (4.05) (0.71)
8 0.155 *** 0.199 *** 18 0.122 *** 0.045
(6.36) (4.49) (4.11) (0.81)
9 0.157 *** 0.197 *** 19 0.104 *** 0.038
(6.44) (4.50) (3.44) (0.70)
10 0.148 *** 0.165 *** 20 0.104 *** 0.040
(6.11) (3.74) (3.35) (0.74)
This table presents the results of Fama French 4 Factor regressions of US monthly stock returns sorted on predicted dividend
payment at different horizons. Portfolios are equal-weighted or value-weighted as indicated, and monthly stock returns are
regressed on monthly excess market returns, SMB, HML and UMD. The intercept from these regressions is shown in the
table. The ‘predicted dividend’ variable selects companies that paid a quarterly or unknown dividend 3, 6, 9 or 12 months ago,
a semi-annual dividend 6 or 12 months ago, or an annual dividend 12 months ago. This variable is then lagged in years by
adding multiples of 12 months to each of the date requirements – e.g. a lag of one year means a stock that paid a quarterly
dividend 15, 18, 21 or 24 months ago (and equivalently for semi-annual and annual), a lag of two years means quarterly
dividend payment 27, 30, 33 or 36 months ago, etc. The long portfolio is all stocks with a predicted dividend lagged by that
number of years, while the short portfolio includes all companies that paid a dividend in the 12 months of the lagged year that
aren’t predicted to pay a dividend (e.g. a lag of 1 year means any dividend payment from 13 to 24 months ago that isn’t
predicted to pay a dividend this month). Regressions are run on monthly returns of NYSE, Amex and NASDAQ common
shares, from January 1927 to December 2011. The top number is the coefficient, the lower number in parentheses is the t-
statistic, and *, ** and *** indicate statistical significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level respectively. 50
 Table X - Calendar, Seasonality and Subperiods
Panel A - Dividend Month Premium by Calendar Month
EW, Predicted EW, Predicted
Dividend - All Other Dividend - All Other
Month Past Dividend Payers Month Past Dividend Payers

January 0.343 * July 0.759 ***

(1.79) (4.65)
February 0.548 *** August 0.555 ***
(3.66) (4.85)
March 0.638 *** September 0.423 ***
(5.47) (2.92)
April 0.354 ** October 0.284 *
(2.56) (1.98)
May 0.502 *** November 0.562 ***
(4.34) (4.13)
June 0.515 *** December 0.615 ***
(3.70) (3.29)

Panel B - Different Sub-Periods

Period Equal Weighted Value Weighted

1926-1945 0.790 *** 0.520 ***

(6.36) (4.23)
1946-1965 0.214 *** 0.046
(4.92) (0.53)
1966-1985 0.604 *** 0.468 ***
(11.32) (5.70)
1985-2011 0.472 *** 0.268 ***
(7.65) (3.68)

This table presents the results of Fama French 4 Factor regressions of US monthly stock returns sorted on predicted
dividend payment in different calendar months, and in different sub-periods. Monthly stock returns are regressed on
monthly excess market returns, SMB, HML and UMD, with the intercept from these regressions being shown. Predicted
dividends refers to stocks that paid a quarterly or unknown dividend 3, 6, 9 or 12 months ago, a semi-annual dividend 6
or 12 months ago, or an annual dividend 12 months ago. ‘All Other Past Dividend Payers’ is all companies who paid a
dividend in the past 12 months but are not predicted to pay a dividend this month based on the above formula. The
dividend month premium is the abnormal returns to the difference portfolio long predicted dividend payers and short all
other past dividend payers. Panel A examines the equal-weighted dividend month premium in different calendar months
of the year. Panel B examines the dividend month premium in different sub-periods: 1926-1945, 1946-1965, 1966-1985
and 1986-2011. The top number is the coefficient, the lower number in parentheses is the t-statistic, and *, ** and ***
indicate statistical significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% level respectively. 51
 Figure 1 – Cumulative Value of the Dividend Month Premium Compared With
Size and Book-to-Market Anomalies

This figure presents the cumulative value for the dividend month premium portfolio compared with the size (SMB)
and book-to-market (HML) portfolios. In each case, the cumulative value of an initial one dollar investment on
December 31, 1927 is plotted on the y-axis, versus the year on the x-axis. The green line is for the ‘within-
companies’ dividend month premium – a portfolio that is long in all companies predicted to pay a dividend this
month, and is short in all companies who paid a dividend in the past 12 months but that are not predicted to pay a
dividend this month. The orange line is the cumulative value of the SMB portfolio and the blue line is the cumulative
value of the HML portfolio, both taken from Ken French’s website.

52
 Figure 2 –Daily Characteristic-Adjusted Returns Around Ex-Dividend Date

Figure 3 –Daily Characteristic-Adjusted Returns Around Announcement Date

These figures present daily characteristic-adjusted stock returns around ex-dividend dates (Fig. 2) and dividend
announcement dates (Fig. 3). Each adjusted return takes the company’s stock return and subtracts off the returns of a
portfolio matched on quintiles of market capitalization, book-to-market ratio and momentum. Adjusted returns are taken
relative to the ex-dividend date, with negative dates being before the ex-dividend (announcement) date and positive dates
being afterwards. All returns are in percent (e.g. ‘0. 1’ corresponds to 10 basis points). Lines in red have a t-statistic that
is significant at the 5% level, and lines in yellow are not significant at a 5% level 53
 Figure 4 – Abnormal Volume Around Ex-Dividend Date

Figure 5 – Abnormal Volume Around Declaration Date

These figures present the abnormal trading volume around ex-dividend dates (Fig. 4) and dividend declaration dates
(Fig. 5). Abnormal Volume is computed each day as (Volume – 250 Day Average Volume)/ 250 Day Average
Volume. This is computed daily for each company, and averaged for each day relative to the ex-dividend date
(declaration date), with negative dates being before the ex-dividend date (declaration date) and positive dates being
afterwards. All returns are in decimals (e.g. ‘0.1’ corresponds to 10 per cent). Lines in red have a t-statistic that is
significant at the 5% level, and lines in yellow are not significant at a 5% level
54
 Figure 6 – Abnormal Returns for Portfolios of Past Dividend Payers
Panel A – Equal Weighted

Panel B – Value Weighted

This figure presents the intercepts from four-factor regressions of monthly stock returns for companies that paid a dividend in
previous months. Each point is from a separate regression of a portfolio of monthly stock returns on excess market returns, as
well as SMB, HML and UMD portfolios. The y-axis is monthly abnormal returns, in percent. In Panel A, the results are for
equal-weighted portfolios, and in Panel B they are for value-weighted portfolios. Portfolios are formed for all companies that
paid a dividend of any kind in the number of months prior indicated. When the month is a multiple of three (i.e. paid a dividend
3 months ago, 6 months ago etc.), the bar is red if the intercept has a t-statistic that is significant at the 5% level, and yellow if
the intercept is not significant at the 5% level. When the month is not a multiple of three, the bar is purple if the intercept has a
t-statistic that is significant at the 5% level, and black if the intercept is not significant at the 5% level. 55