Portfolio Concept Summary (SFM)
Portfolio Concept Summary (SFM)
Portfolio Concept Summary (SFM)
CA Final
CMA Final
(New & Old Scheme)
Strategic Financial
Management (SFM)
Concept Summary
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Chapter - 5
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
Contents
1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2
2. RETURN BASED ON CASH FLOWS .................................................................................................................................................................. 3
(A) RETURN OF A SECURITY ............................................................................................................................................................................. 3
(B) RETURN OF A PORTFOLIO .......................................................................................................................................................................... 4
3. RISK OF A SECURITY OR A STANDARD DEVIATION OF A SECURITY ............................................................................................. 4
4. CO-EFFECIENT OF VARIATION (CV) .............................................................................................................................................................. 4
5. DATA ANALYSIS FOR CORRELATION, SYSTEMATIC RISK AND UNSYSTEMATIC RISK .......................................................... 5
(A) POSITIVE CORRELATION ............................................................................................................................................................................ 5
(B) NEGATIVE CORRELATION .......................................................................................................................................................................... 5
(C) ZERO CORRELATION ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
6. CO-VARIANCE BETWEEN TWO SECURITIES ............................................................................................................................................. 6
7. CORRELATION COEFFICIENT BETWEEN TWO SECURITIES/MARKET......................................................................................... 6
8. STANDARD DEVIATION OF A PORTFOLIO .................................................................................................................................................. 6
9. BETA ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7
(A) BETA OF A SECURITY .................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
(B) BETA OF A PORTFOLIO ................................................................................................................................................................................ 7
(C) BETA OF MARKET OR BETA OF NIFTY.................................................................................................................................................. 7
(D) BETA OF RISK FREE SECURITY ................................................................................................................................................................ 7
10. SYSTEMATIC RISK OF A SECURITY ................................................................................................................................................................. 8
11. UNSYSTEMATIC RISK OF A SECURITY .......................................................................................................................................................... 8
12. SYSTEMATIC RISK OF A PORTFOLIO ............................................................................................................................................................. 9
13. UNSYSTEMATIC RISK OF A PORTFOLIO ...................................................................................................................................................... 9
14. TOTAL RISK OF A PORTFOLIO .......................................................................................................................................................................... 9
15. RISK OF PORTFOLIO CONTAINING THREE SECURITIES [HARRY MARKOWITZ FORMULA] .............................................. 9
16. MEASURES FOR EVALUATING THE PERFORMANCE OF MUTUAL FUND ..................................................................................... 9
(A) SHARPE RATIO OR REWARD TO VARIABILITY ................................................................................................................................ 9
(B)TREYNOR RATIO OR REWARD TO VOLATILITY ................................................................................................................................ 9
(C) ALPHA OR JENSEN ALPHA .......................................................................................................................................................................... 9
17. FAIR EXPECTED RETURN OF A SECURITY OR RETURN BASED ON RISK FACTOR ............................................................... 10
(A) CAPM .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
(B) APT OR APTM................................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
18. EXPECTED RETURN OF A PORTFOLIO....................................................................................................................................................... 11
(A) USING CAPM ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
(B) USING APT ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
19. SELECTION OF STOCK USING EXPECTED RETURN ............................................................................................................................. 11
20. LINEAR EQUATION OR STRAIGHT LINE ................................................................................................................................................... 11
21. DIFFERENT TYPES OF LINE FOR RISK & RETURN ANALYSIS......................................................................................................... 12
(A) SECURITY MARKET LINE (SML)............................................................................................................................................................ 12
(B) CAPITAL MARKET LINE(CML) ............................................................................................................................................................... 12
(C) CHARACTERISTICS LINE (CL) ............................................................................................................................................................... 12
22. APT EQUATION ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
23. EFFICIENT PORTFOLIO ACCORDING TO HARRY MARKOWITZ ..................................................................................................... 13
24. PORTFOLIO REBALANCING ............................................................................................................................................................................ 13
(A) VARIABLE RATIO PLAN ............................................................................................................................................................................ 13
(B) CONSTANT RATIO PLAN ........................................................................................................................................................................... 13
(C) CONSTANT PROPORTION PORTFOLIO INSURANCE POLICY (CPPIP) ............................................................................... 13
25. MINIMUM RISK PORTFOLIO ........................................................................................................................................................................... 13
26. ASSETS BETA OR PROJECT BETA OR FIRM BETA................................................................................................................................. 14
27. PROXY BETA OR BETA OF NEW PROJECT ................................................................................................................................................ 14
28. REQUIRED RETURN OF A PROJECT ............................................................................................................................................................. 15
29. SHARPE OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO OR CUT-OFF POINT ........................................................................................................................... 15
30. CALCULATION OF CUT-OFF POINT ............................................................................................................................................................. 16
31. INVESTMENT STRATEGY ................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
INTRODUCTION
Bundle of securities/ assets/ liabilities is known as portfolio.
Under portfolio management, our objective is to maximize return and minimize risk.
Portfolio management is also known as risk-return analysis.
Value of Portfolio
Objective:
Maximize return & minimize
risk of this portfolio.
RETURN BASED ON CASH FLOWS
(A) RETURN OF A SECURITY
Return based on cash flow is calculated using following formula:
Inflow−outflow
Return = × 100
Outflow
Where, www.fmguru.org
Inflow of equity share = [Dividend + Price at End] CA Nagendra Sah
Outflow = Price at the beginning FCA, B. Sc. (H), CFAL1
OR
(D1+ P1 )− P0
Return = ×100
P0
Sometimes, we find data of more than one year/period. In this case, calculate average return for security
return.
SECURITY RETURN
Note:
In fact, above both returns are average return and hence word “average return” and “expected return” are
interchangeable.
Analysis:
For return normally we calculate compound return. However, period wise return misses when we calculate
compound return but we need period wise return to calculate volatility (i.e. risk of security). Hence, calculate
period wise return first and then average, if question requires to calculate both risk and return.
Explanation:
0Y 1Y 2Y 3Y
If we have to calculate “only return” then calculate compounded return. However, if we have to calculate risk
and return both then go for simple return because we need more than one return to check volatility.
In calculation of simple return, we can see volatility from -10% to 33.33% which is input data for
measurement of risk.
(B) RETURN OF A PORTFOLIO
Before calculating portfolio return, we must have to calculate security return using above concept.
R Portfolio = RA WA + R B WB + Rc Wc + …
Where,
A,B & C are different securities.
RA, RB & RC = Return of securities A, B & C respectively.
WA, WB & WC = Weight of Security A, B & C respectively.
Value of Security−A
WA = and so on.
Total Value of Portfolio
Note: If question is silent, assume equal investment.
∑( x−x)2
SD (σ) = Square root of Variance = √ OR √∑( x − x)2 × Probability
n
Notes:
Unit of Standard deviation is same as unit of input data.
Standard deviation of same stock for different input may differ. Hence read question carefully to find input data.
(i.e. Price or return)
If question is silent, we may use either price or return as input.
If probability is given then calculate average (i.e. average of input data and average of square of deviation) using
probability.
• Here, behaviour of movement on price of stock and NIFTY is in same direction but
movement is not exactly same.
• Correlation of above data must be lesser than “+1” (i.e. Fall between 0 to +1)
• It indicates, there is effect of Individual factor (i.e. unsystematic factor) also in movement
of stock-A price.
Note: Practically, negative correlation between stock and market is not possible. In
short run, we may see negative correlation between IT Stock and NIFTY. Correlation
between $ and NIFTY remains negative in most of the time.
(ii) Other Perfect Market Condition NIFTY Point Stock-A Price
negative Bad 10700 500
correction Good 11000 440
Normal 10850 440
• Behaviour of movement in price of stock-A and NIFTY is not exactly same but in
inverse direction.
• Correlation of this data must fall between “-1 to 0”
• It indicates there is effect of unsystematic factor also.
(C) ZERO CORRELATION
• Correlation of data must be Zero. It means there is no similarity in movement of price.
• It indicates there is no systematic factor effect on price movement of stock (i.e. Total
risk is unsystematic).
Examples - 1: Market Condition NIFTY Point Stock-A Price
Bad 10700 500 www.fmguru.org
Good 11850 560 CA Nagendra Sah
FCA, B. Sc. (H), CFAL1
Normal 11000 500
Examples - 2: Market Condition NIFTY Point Stock-A Price
Bad 10700 500
Good 11000 500
Normal 10850 500
Examples - 3: Market Condition NIFTY Point Stock-A Price
Bad 10700 500
Good 11000 500
Normal 10850 530
Explanation:
rAM = 0.80
Stock-A Market
σ = 10% σ = 5% All systematic
NS Opinion:
Systematic risk can also be mitigated through diversification if securities are negatively correlated (i.e. correlation
negative).
Formula:
(a) Systematic risk of a stock-A = σ𝐴2 × r𝐴,𝑚
2
OR
(b) Systematic risk of a stock-A = σ𝑚2 × B𝐴2
Note:
Normally, systematic & unsystematic risk are calculated in square term as Sharpe suggested formula is square term.
However, we can’t interpret value in square term. For interpretation, first do square root then interpret.
Caution:
Do not do weighted average of systematic risk for calculation of portfolio systematic risk. First calculate beta of portfolio
and then systematic risk of portfolio. [For Logic recall class discusstion]
Note:
Above formula is also known as “Sharpe Index Model”.
All concepts of systematic and systematic risk are given by “Sharpe”.
Above formula of "σ(portfolio) ” is applicable for any number of securities in a portfolio.
(A) CAPM uses beta factor or sensitivity of systematic risk to calculate expected return.
CAPM As it uses single risk factor, it is also determined as single factor model to calculate
expected/required return.
Formula: www.fmguru.org
𝐸𝑅𝐴 = 𝑅𝐹 + 𝛽𝐴 (RM - RF) CA Nagendra Sah
FCA, B. Sc. (H), CFAL1
Where,
R F = Risk free return
βA = Sensitivity of systematic risk of stock-A
R M = Return of market
(R A − R F ) = Market risk premium
[Sometimes, it may be called risk premium]
Explanation:
Alternatively,
ER A = R F + βA (RM - RF) = 6% + 1.5(10-6) = 12%
(B) APT uses both systematic risk factor and unsystematic risk factor in calculation of expected
APT return.
OR As it uses more than one risk factor, it is also termed as “Multi factor model”
Formula:
APTM
𝐸𝑅𝐴 or 𝑅𝑅𝐴 = 𝑅𝐹 + 𝛽1 (RM1 - RF) + 𝛽2 (RM2 - RF) + 𝛽3 (RM3 - RF)
Where,
1,2 & 3 indicates different factors like inflation, GDP, GNP, price of product, quality of
product, etc.
𝛽1 , 𝛽2 , 𝛽3 Sensitivity of factor-1,2 & 3 respectively.
(R 𝑀1 − R F ) = Market risk premium due to factor -1 and so on…
Second Formula:
ER A or RR A = λ0 + β1 λ1 + β2 λ2 + β3 λ3 +…
Where,
λ0 = Risk free return
𝛽1 , 𝛽2 , 𝛽3 Sensitivity of factor-1,2 & 3 respectively.
λ1 , λ2 , λ3 = Change in market return due to factor 1,2 and 3 respectively.
EXPECTED RETURN OF A PORTFOLIO
(A) USING CAPM
(i) ER P or RR Portfolio = ER A WA + ER B WB + ER C WC + …
(ii) ER P or RR Portfolio = R F + βPort (R M − R F )
(B) USING APT
(i) ER P or RR Portfolio =ER A WA + ER B WB + ER C WC +…
(ii) ER P or RR Portfolio = R F + βF1 (port.) (R M1 - RF)
+ βF2 (port.) (RM2 - R F)
+ βF3 (port.)(RM3 - RF)
Example:
An equation of straight line:
y = 0.5x + 4
Here, slope of line is “0.5”. It means if x change by 1 then y change by 0.5 (i.e. if x change by 2 then y change by 1)
Intercept is 4. It means line starts from point 4 of y-axis (i.e. y is 4 when x is zero)
DIFFERENT TYPES OF LINE FOR RISK & RETURN ANALYSIS
Line
(A) SECURITY MARKET LINE (SML) (B) CAPITAL MARKET LINE(CML) (C) CHARACTERISTICS LINE (CL)
Relationship between expected Relationship between expected Relationship between Rs & mkt.
return & beta return & SD (𝜎) return
E.g.: ER = 0.5 𝜷 + 4 E.g.: ER = 0.5𝝈+ 4 E.g.: Rs = 0.5 𝑹𝑴 + 4
SML CML CL
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AR
ER
ER
CA Nagendra Sah
FCA, B. Sc. (H), CFAL1
Beta SD Rm
(A) Security Market Line (SML) (B) Capital Market Line (CML) (C) Characteristics Line (CL):
APT EQUATION
It provides relationship between “expected return” and “beta of different factors”.
Equation:
As per APT,
𝐸𝑅𝐴 = 𝑅𝐹 + 𝛽1 (RM1 - RF)
+ 𝛽2 (RM2 - RF)
+ 𝛽3 (RM3 - RF)
Where,
ER, 𝛽1 , 𝛽2 , 𝛽3 are variables.
𝑅𝐹 , (RM1 - RF), (RM2 - RF), (RM3 - RF) are constant.
EFFICIENT PORTFOLIO ACCORDING TO HARRY MARKOWITZ
According to Harry Markowitz, efficient portfolio is that portfolio which:
(a) Provides same return but undertakes less risk.
(b) Undertakes same risk but provides high return.
(c) Provides high return with high risk and low return with low risk.
PORTFOLIO REBALANCING
Maintaining proportion of equity investment (aggressive investment) and risk free bond investment (or conservative
investment) at equal time interval (i.e. each 15 days or each 1 month, etc.) or any fixed percentage change is known as
portfolio rebalancing.
Objective of portfolio rebalancing is to maintain risk.
There are different types of strategies.
RE-BALANCING STRATEGIES
(A) VARIABLE RATIO PLAN (B) CONSTANT RATIO PLAN (C) CONSTANT PROPORTION
PORTFOLIO INSURANCE
Maintain different ratio for Maintain same proportion POLICY (CPPIP)
different securities every time.
Say: 70:30, 60:40, etc. Normally, 50:50 See Below
σB2 −Covariance(A,M)
(a) WA =
σB2 +σA2 −2 Covariance (A,B)
(b) WB = (1- WA)
(Above formula is derived from “σ𝑃𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑓𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑜 ” formula using concept of minimization (mathematic concept).
Note:
To incorporate tax saving, we used D × (1 − T) in calculation of weight. Here, T = Tax Rate
Unless otherwise stated, Assume 𝛽𝐷 = 𝑍𝑒𝑟𝑜
Analysis:
When there is debt:𝛽𝐸 > 𝛽𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠
When there is no debt: 𝛽𝐸 = 𝛽𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠
If increase debt proportion: 𝛽𝐸 increase.
𝛽𝐸 depends upon 𝛽𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠 and capital mix.
𝛽𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠 depends upon performance of business.
B/S OF A COMPANY
Particulars Amount Particulars Amount
𝛽𝐸 Equity XXX Project A XXX 𝛽𝐴
𝛽𝐷 Debt XXX
TOTAL XXX TOTAL XXX
IV Calculate cumulative value of point (III) for each stock in above order.
V Calculate
𝛽2
for each stock in above order.
𝜎Є2
VI Calculate cumulative value of point (V) for each stock in above order.
VII Calculate: (Ci Value) =
𝛔𝟐
𝐌 × 𝐩𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭 (IV) 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞
for each stock in above order
𝟏 +(𝛔𝟐
𝐌 × 𝐩𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭 (VI)𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞)
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
S.N. SITUATION ACTION
1 If actual return (Based on cash flow) is
higher than fair return (Based on risk factor) Buy security because it is undervalued.
In this case, Alpha is Positive
2 If actual return is lesser than fair return Sell security because it is overvalued.
In this case, Alpha is Negative
3 If actual return is equal to fair return Hold security as it is fairly priced.
In this case, Alpha is Zero
FORMULA SUMMARY
1. PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
www.fmguru.org
RETURN CA Nagendra Sah RISK
FCA, B. Sc. (H), CFAL1
Actual Return (Cash Flows Based) Required Return (Risk Based) Overall Risk (σ or 𝛔𝟐 )
Std. Dev.(σ) measures overall risk. However, calculate variance (σ2) as
Inflow−Outflow CAPM APTM overall risk for segregation in systematic risk and unsystematic risk.
Return = × 100
Outflow [For calculation of Standard deviation see next page]
[Capital Assets Pricing [Arbitrage Pricing Theory
𝐃𝟏 + 𝐏𝟏 −𝐩𝟎 Variance of a security/Port (𝝈𝟐 )
= Model] OR Model] OR
𝐏𝟎
Single Factor Model [Multi Factor Model]
Sys risk of a security Un-Sys risk of a sec A [𝛔𝟐𝐞(𝐀) ]
Return of a Security ER of a Security ER of a Security
2 = σ2A - Sys Risk of A
Case-I: Expected Return of A Expected Return (ER) = (σ2A × rs,m ) OR (σ2M × β2A )
Future Data with Probability ER A = R F + βA (RM - RF) = R F + βF1 (R M1 − R F ) Where, Or
2 2
Expected Return of Security A + βF2 (R M2 − R F ) rs,m = Coefficient of determination = σ2A × (1- rs,m )
= (R1 × P1 ) + (R2 × P2 ) + (R3 × Where, + βF3 (R M3 − R F ) + …
R F = Risk Free Return Sys risk of a Portfolio Un-Sys risk of a Port [𝛔𝟐𝐞(𝐏𝐨𝐫𝐭) ]
P3 ) + …
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βA = Beta of Security A OR
CA Nagendra Sah = σ2M × β2Port = (σ2e(A) wA2 ) + (σ2e(B) wB2 ) +
FCA, B. Sc. (H), CFAL1 [Sensitivity of ER = λ0 + βF1 λ1 + βF2 λ2 +…
Case-2:
Systematic Risk in
βPort = βA WA + βB WB + βC WC (σ2e(C) wC2 ) + ⋯ …
Past data without Probability
relation to Market] Where,
Average Return of security A
RM = Market Return λ0 = Risk Free return This risk can’t be mitigated This risk can be mitigated
R1 + R2 + R3 +⋯
= RM - RF = Market Premium λ1 = Change in market return through portfolio diversification. through portfolio diversification.
n due to factor -1 It is also known as diversifiable
It is also known as Non-
Diversifiable risk or Market risk risk or unique risk or Residual
Return of a Portfolio ER of a Portfolio ER of a Portfolio or variance explained by Market variance or random error or
ER Port ER Port Index. variance not explained by Market
Rport = R A WA + R B WB + R C WC + …. Index.
= ER A WA + ER B WB + ER C WC =ER A WA + ER B WB + ER C WC
OR OR We can also say: 𝜎𝐴2 = Sys Risk of A + UnSys risk of A
Where,
ER P = R F + βPort (RM − RF ) ER P = RF + βF1 (port.) (RM1 - RF) [It is also known as Sharpe Index Model]
R A , R B & R C = Return on security A, + βF2 (port.) (RM2 - RF)
B &C Comparison between β and Systematic risk
Where, + βF3 (port.)(RM3 - RF) Suppose, EBT is 1.5 times of EAT, and EAT is 12% then EBT is
WA , WB & WC = Weight of Where,
investments in A, B & ER A , ER B & ER C = Expected = (1.5 X 12%) = 18%.
return of A, B and C using ER A , ER B & ER C = Expected
C respectively return of A, B and C using Here we can say, EBT is 18% and sensitivity of EBT is 1.5 times.
CAPM
APTM In same way we can interpret β as sensitivity of systematic risk
while systematic risk is in square of % term.
2. STANDARD DEVIATION (𝝈)
It measures overall risk of a security. In fact, it is an “average of deviation from mean” Calculated from square of data. For SD, first calculate variance which is “average of square
of deviation” and then do square root.
Of a security Of a portfolio
∑(𝐗 𝐀 − 𝐗 𝐀 ) ×(𝐗 𝐁 − 𝐗 𝐁 )
=√ or√∑((𝐗 𝐀 − 𝐗 𝐀 ) × (𝐗 𝐁 − 𝐗 𝐁 ) ) × 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲
𝐧
CO-VARIANCE (A, B)
= 𝝈𝑨 × 𝝈𝑩 × 𝒓𝐀,𝐁
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= 𝛃𝑨 × 𝛃𝑩 × 𝝈𝟐𝒎 CA Nagendra Sah
FCA, B. Sc. (H), CFAL1
CORRELATION COEFFICIENT =
[𝑪𝒐𝒗𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆 (𝑨,𝑩)]
4. BETA
BETA OF A SECURITY βA =
𝐫𝐀𝐁 ×𝛔𝐀
OR
𝐂𝐨𝐯𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 (𝐀.𝐌)
𝛔𝑴 𝝈𝟐
𝒎
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BETA OF A PORTFOLIO βPortfolio = βA×WA + βB×WB + …… CA Nagendra Sah
FCA, B. Sc. (H), CFAL1
MARKET OR NIFTY BETA 1
RISK-FREE SECURITY BETA Zero
7. PORTFOLIO REBALANCING
VARIABLE RATIO PLAN Maintain different ratio for different securities
CONSTANT RATIO PLAN Maintain same proportion every time.
CONSTANT PROPORTION Equity Investment Value = (Total Portfolio Value – Floor Value) × m
PORTFOLIO INSURANCE POLICY
(CPPIP) Risk free Bond invest. = (Total Port. Value – Equity Invest. Value)
STOCKS Proportion of Invest.: Z1: Z2: Z3 (Assuming Selected Security are 1,2 & 3)
Dz
dz
Dz
dz
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