Week Sales 3MA Forecast Error Abs Error Error ^2 Abs % error

1 110
2 115 #N/A
3 125 #N/A
4 120 116.67 3.3 3.33 11.0889 2.78
5 125 120 5.00 5 25 4
6 120 123.33 -3.3 3.33 11.0889 2.775
7 130 121.67 8.3 8.33 69.3889 6.41
8 115 125 -10.00 10 100 8.70
9 110 121.67 -11.7 11.67 136.1889 10.61
10 130 118.33 11.7 11.67 136.1889 8.98
11 118.33 -118.3
TOTAL 3.33 53.33 488.9445 44.24

Moving Average
140
130
Actual
Value

120
110 Forecast
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Data Point
Week Sales Forecast (. Forecast Error
1 110 #N/A
2 115 110 5
3 125 111 14
4 120 113.8 6.2
5 125 115.04 9.96
6 120 117.032 2.97
7 130 117.6256 12.37
8 115 120.1005 -5.10
9 110 119.0804 -9.08
10 130 117.2643 12.74

Exponential Smoothing
140
130
Actual
Value

120
Forecast
110
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Data Point
week sales naïve forecast erabs forecassquared err abs % error week
1 110 1
2 115 110 5 5 25 4.35 2
3 125 115 10 10 100 8.00 3
4 120 125 -5 5 25 4.17 4
5 125 120 5 5 25 4.00 5
6 120 125 -5 5 25 4.17 6
7 130 120 10 10 100 7.69 7
8 115 130 -15 15 225 13.04 8
9 110 115 -5 5 25 4.55 9
10 130 110 20 20 400 15.38 10
130 11
80 950 65.35 12

MAE MAD MAPE

8.89 105.56 7.26

week value ave of hist forecast erabs fe squared abs p er

1 18
2 13 18.00 -5.00 5.00 25.00 38.46
3 16 15.50 0.50 0.50 0.25 3.13
4 11 15.67 -4.67 4.67 21.78 42.42
5 17 14.50 2.50 2.50 6.25 14.71
6 14 15.00 -1.00 1.00 1.00 7.14
tsv naïve forecast erabs fe squared abs % error
17
21 17 4 4 16 19.05
19 21 -2 2 4 10.53
23 19 4 4 16 17.39
18 23 -5 5 25 27.78
16 18 -2 2 4 12.50
20 16 4 4 16 20.00
18 20 -2 2 4 11.11
22 18 4 4 16 18.18
20 22 -2 2 4 10.00
15 20 -5 5 25 33.33
22 15 7 7 49 31.82
22
41 179 211.69

MAE MAD MAPE

3.73 16.27 19.24
week sales 3ma forecaforecast erabs fe squared abs p e
1 110
2 115 #N/A
3 125 #N/A
4 120 116.67 3.33 3.33 11.11 2.78
5 125 120.00 5.00 5.00 25.00 4.00
6 120 123.33 -3.33 3.33 11.11 2.78
7 130 121.67 8.33 8.33 69.44 6.41
8 115 125.00 -10.00 10.00 100.00 8.70
9 110 121.67 -11.67 11.67 136.11 10.61
10 130 118.33 11.67 11.67 136.11 8.97
118.33

Moving Average
140
130
Actual
Value

120
Forecast
110
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Data Point
year sales Yt tYt t^2 t yt tyt
1 21.6 21.6 1 march 1 353 353
2 22.9 45.8 4 april 2 387 774
3 25.5 76.5 9 may 3 342 1026
4 21.9 87.6 16 june 4 374 1496
5 23.9 119.5 25 july 5 396 1980
6 27.5 165 36 august 6 409 2454
7 31.5 220.5 49 september 7 399 2793
8 29.7 237.6 64 october 8 412 3296
9 28.6 257.4 81 november 9 408 3672
10 31.4 314 100 45 3480 17844
55 264.5 1545.5 385
t 5
y 386.67
b0
t^2
1
4
9
16
25
36 b1 b0
49 7.4 349.6667
64
81
285
year quarters q1 q2 q3 sales
1 1 1 0 0 125
1 2 0 1 0 153 b3 b2 b1
1 3 0 0 1 106 26 57 29
1 4 0 0 0 88
2 1 1 0 0 118
2 2 0 1 0 161
2 3 0 0 1 133
2 4 0 0 0 102
3 1 1 0 0 138
3 2 0 1 0 144
3 3 0 0 1 113
3 4 0 0 0 80
4 1 1 0 0 109
4 2 0 1 0 137
4 3 0 0 1 125
4 4 0 0 0 109
5 1 1 0 0 130
5 2 0 1 0 165
5 3 0 0 1 128
5 4 0 0 0 96
b0
95
year quarters q1 q2 q3 t sales
1 1 1 0 0 1 125
1 2 0 1 0 2 153
1 3 0 0 1 3 106 0.375 26.375
1 4 0 0 0 4 88
2 1 1 0 0 5 118
2 2 0 1 0 6 161
2 3 0 0 1 7 133
2 4 0 0 0 8 102
3 1 1 0 0 9 138
3 2 0 1 0 10 144
3 3 0 0 1 11 113
3 4 0 0 0 12 80
4 1 1 0 0 13 109
4 2 0 1 0 14 137
4 3 0 0 1 15 125
4 4 0 0 0 16 109
5 1 1 0 0 17 130
5 2 0 1 0 18 165
5 3 0 0 1 19 128
5 4 0 0 0 20 96
57.75 30.125
t yt
1 120
2 110 b1 b0
3 100 -4.93 119.71
4 96
5 94 y8 159.14
6 92
7 88